Eco Project Great Depression
Eco Project Great Depression
Eco Project Great Depression
BHOPAL
ECONOMICS II PROJECT
On
Great Depression
United States, 1929
Submitted to
Prof Rajesh Gautam
Submitted by
Kunal Sharma
2013 BALLB 63
Acknowledgment
I would like to express my gratitude to all those who helped and
guided me in making this project. First of all, I am really grateful
to Professor Rajesh Gautam who gave me an opportunity to work
on the chosen topic and gave me his valuable guidance and
inputs. Also, I would like to thank my friends and seniors who
supported me throughout the project.
Kunal Sharma
2013 BALLB 63
Contents
Review of Literature................................................................................................... 4
Introduction................................................................................................................ 6
Great Depression and the World............................................................................. 6
Great Depression in the US: Black Tuesday.........................................................7
Causes of the Great Depression.................................................................................8
Emergence of New theories.................................................................................... 9
Keynes................................................................................................................. 9
Monetarist......................................................................................................... 10
Economic Situation in the United States:.................................................................11
Miserable Statistics................................................................................................... 11
A Look at statistics: Data analysis.........................................................................11
Effects of the Depression.......................................................................................... 16
Road to Recovery:..................................................................................................... 17
Roosevalt and the New Deal..................................................................................... 17
The Second New Deal........................................................................................... 18
Conclusion................................................................................................................ 19
Bibliography............................................................................................................. 20
Review of Literature
These sources discuss causes and effects of the Great Depression which happened
around the 1929 until mid-1930. Here, the authors analyses and mentions some of
the causes and effects of this depression that affect not only the United States but
other countries as well. It will also be review some statistics and facts originated by
the Great Depression.
The author mentions and describes that for 1929 the rates of unemployment were
from 3.2% to a 24.9% by the year of 1933. This abruptly increase was caused by the
crash on Wall Street market and the past crises. The author also mention that is was
too difficult for one quarter of women to find a job to help to support their families,
so the poverty and consumption of commodities decrease as well, leading to an
overabundance of supplies in the market.
Its seems that, the great crash on the Wall Street market had a huge impact in the
rates of unemployment during the crisis, leading to a general panic not just for
consumer but suppliers as well since they were having an overstock in supplies
since the people did not have enough money to buy goods.
Changes in the behaviour of the population were also a factor in this crisis. The
author mentions that in 1929 the rates of suicide increase rapidly since many
companies were ruined or in bankruptcy. Another change was the rates of fertility
and family, which decrease in a nearly 20% by 1934. Many young couples were
afraid of having children for their finances, the widespread poverty was affecting all
the aspects of a family life and women prefer not to have children.
Harold L. Cole
Harold L Cole in his research paper New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the
Great Depression has revealed that there are two striking aspects of the recovery
from the Great Depression in the United States: the recovery was very weak, and
real wages in several sectors rose significantly above trend. These data contrast
sharply with neoclassical theory, which predicts a strong recovery with low real
wages. We evaluate the contribution to the persistence of the Depression of New
Deal cartelization policies designed to limit competition and increase labor
bargaining power. We develop a model of the bargaining process between labor and
firms that occurred with these policies and embed that model within a multisector
dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that New Deal cartelization policies are
an important factor in accounting for the failure of the economy to recover back to
trend.
d)
Friedman and Schwartz (1963) argued that the Great Depression was exponentially
magnified by the Federal Reserves failure to conduct effective monetary policy in
the years leading up to, during and shortly after the economic recession. Temin
(1976) suggests that the Great Depression can be explained as a large negative
shock to aggregate demand. Temin (1976) contradicts Friedman and Schwartz
(1963) by saying that studying only monetary policy factors, will yield an
incomplete explanation of the Great Depression. Instead, the decline in money
growth may expose the underlying forces of the Great Depression. Temin (1976)
looks primarily at interest rates to explain the monetary policy changes of the time
period.
1929
Introduction
Great Depression and the World
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade
preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations,
but in most countries it started in 1930 and lasted until the late 1930s or middle
1940s.It was the longest, most widespread, and deepest depression of the 20th
century.
In the 21st century, the Great Depression is commonly used as an example of how
far the world's economy can decline. The depression originated in the U.S., after the
fall in stock prices that began around September 4, 1929, and became worldwide
news with the stock market crash of October 29, 1929 (known as Black Tuesday).
The Great Depression had devastating effects in countries rich and poor. Personal
income, tax revenue, profits and prices dropped, while international trade plunged
by more than 50%. Unemployment in the U.S. rose to 25% and in some countries
rose as high as 33%.
Cities all around the world were hit hard, especially those dependent on heavy
industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Farming and rural
areas suffered as crop prices fell by approximately 60%. Facing plummeting demand
with few alternate sources of jobs, areas dependent on primary sector
industries such as cash cropping, mining and logging suffered the most.
Some economies started to recover by the mid-1930s. In many countries, the
negative effects of the Great Depression lasted until the end of World War II.
The causes of the Great Depression in the early 20th Century are a matter of active
debate among economists, and are part of the larger debate about economic crises,
although the popular belief is that the Great Depression was caused by the 1929
crash of the stock market. The specific economic events that took place during
the Great Depression have been studied thoroughly: a deflation in asset
and commodity prices, dramatic drops in demand and credit, and disruption of
trade, ultimately resulting in widespread unemployment and hence poverty.
However, historians lack consensus in determining the causal relationship between
various events and the government economic policy in causing or ameliorating the
Depression.
Banks began to fail in October 1930 (one year after the crash) when farmers
defaulted on loans. There was no federal deposit insurance during that time as bank
failures were considered quite common. This worried depositors that they might
have a chance of losing all their savings, therefore, people started to withdraw
money and changed it into currency. As deposits taken out from the bank increased,
the money supply decreased because the money multiplier worked in reverse,
forcing banks to liquidate assets (such as call in loans rather than create new
loans.) This caused the money supply to shrink and the economy to contract and a
significant decrease in aggregate investment. The decreased money supply further
aggravated price deflation, putting further pressure on already struggling
businesses.
There were however, recognized few key causes as to why the depression
happened. These are:
1. Stock Market Crash of 1929
Many believe erroneously that the stock market crash that occurred on Black
Tuesday, October 29, 1929 is one and the same with the Great Depression. In fact, it
was one of the major causes that led to the Great Depression. Two months after the
original crash in October, stockholders had lost more than $40 billion dollars. Even
though the stock market began to regain some of its losses, by the end of 1930, it
just was not enough and America truly entered what is called the Great Depression.
2. Bank Failures
Throughout the 1930s over 9,000 banks failed. Bank deposits were uninsured and
thus as banks failed people simply lost their savings. Surviving banks, unsure of the
economic situation and concerned for their own survival, stopped being as willing to
create new loans. This exacerbated the situation leading to less and less
expenditures.
3. Reduction in Purchasing Across the Board
With the stock market crash and the fears of further economic woes, individuals
from all classes stopped purchasing items. This then led to a reduction in the
number of items produced and thus a reduction in the workforce. As people lost
their jobs, they were unable to keep up with paying for items they had bought
through installment plans and their items were repossessed. More and more
inventory began to accumulate. The unemployment rate rose above 25% which
meant, of course, even less spending to help alleviate the economic situation.
4. American Economic Policy with Europe
As businesses began failing, the government created the Smoot-Hawley Tariff in
1930 to help protect American companies. This charged a high tax for imports
thereby leading to less trade between America and foreign countries along with
some economic retaliation.
5. Drought Conditions
While not a direct cause of the Great Depression, the drought that occurred in the
Mississippi Valley in 1930 was of such proportions that many could not even pay
their taxes or other debts and had to sell their farms for no profit to themselves. The
area was nicknamed "The Dust Bowl." This was the topic of John Steinbeck's The
Grapes of Wrath.
The reasons, as mentioned above, were still actively debated and thus, various
theories emerged as to the causes of the depression and there came up new
schools of thoughts, the most notable of them all, the Keynesian one.
increasing future production, even if lower interest rates make capital inexpensive.
In that case, the economy can be thrown into a general slump due to a decline in
consumption. According to Keynes, this self-reinforcing dynamic is what occurred to
an extreme degree during the Depression, where bankruptcies were common and
investment, which requires a degree of optimism, was very unlikely to occur. This
view is often characterized by economists as being in opposition to Say's Law.
Monetarist
In their 1963 book A Monetary History of the United States, 18671960, Milton
Friedman and Anna Schwartz laid out their case for a different explanation of the
Great Depression. Essentially, the Great Depression, in their view, was caused by
the fall of the money supply. Friedman and Schwartz write: "From the cyclical peak
in August 1929 to a cyclical trough in March 1933, the stock of money fell by over a
third." The result was what Friedman calls the "Great Contraction" a period of
falling income, prices, and employment caused by the choking effects of a restricted
money supply. Friedman and Schwartz argue that people wanted to hold more
money than the Federal Reserve was supplying. As a result people hoarded money
by consuming less. This caused a contraction in employment and production since
prices were not flexible enough to immediately fall. The Fed's failure was in not
realizing what was happening and not taking corrective action.
After the Depression, the primary explanations of it tended to ignore the importance
of the money supply. However, in the monetarist view, the Depression was in fact a
tragic testimonial to the importance of monetary forces. In their view, the failure of
the Federal Reserve to deal with the Depression was not a sign that monetary policy
was impotent, but that the Federal Reserve implemented the wrong policies. They
did not claim the Fed caused the depression, only that it failed to use policies that
might have stopped a recession from turning into a depression.
In the 1920s, the banking system in the U.S. was about $50 billion, which was
about 50% of GDP.
Between 1929 and 1933, U.S. GDP fell around 30%, the stock market lost
almost 90% of its value.
In 1933, 25% of all workers and 37% of all nonfarm workers were
unemployed.
One Soviet trading corporation in New York averaged 350 applications a day
from Americans seeking jobs in the Soviet Union.
Over one million families lost their farms between 1930 and 1934.
Corporate profits had dropped from $10 billion in 1929 to $1 billion in 1932.
Between 1929 and 1932, the income of the average American family was
reduced by 40%.
Nine million savings accounts had been wiped out between 1930 and 1933.
There were two million homeless people migrating around the country.
In the last prosperous year (1929), there were 279,678 immigrants recorded,
but in 1933 only 23,068 came to the U.S.
In the early 1930s, more people emigrated from the United States than
immigrated to it.
With little economic activity there was scant demand for new coinage.
No nickels or dimes were minted in 193233, no quarter dollars in 1931 or
1933, no half dollars from 1930 to 1932, and no silver dollars in the years
192933.
high as 90%.
The first statistic for demonstrating the decline of the economy into
depression is The unemployment rate with the year of depression
highlighted.
As the above graph indicates the economy descended from essentially full
employment in 1929 when the unemployment rate was 3.2 percent into massive
unemployment in 1933 when the unemployment rate reached 25 percent. The first
question is why was there such high unemployment in 1933. The answer is that the
economy was not producing as much output as it was capable of producing with full
employment of the labor force. It was not producing as much as it could because it
could not sell that amount.
The output of an economy is measured by its Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) and the graph below shows the decline in production from its high
point in 1910 to its low point in 1960.
The decline in GDP, while dramatic, is not so spectacular as the explosion in the
unemployment rate. This is because the umemployment rate represents what was
not produced that could have been produced. A graph showing the percentage of
the labor force employed would look much the same as the GDP graph. While the
Depression was a catastrophe it is well to keep in mind that at worst there was still
75 percent of the labor force who were employed. But, the important question is
why production had fallen off so much in 1933 compared with 1929. Here it is
instructive to look at the components of the demand for the nation's output. The
output of any nation is purchased by four categories of buyers; consumers, business
investors, governments and foreign buyers as exports. The purchases of U.S. output
by foreign buyers is offset by American purchases of foreign production as imports.
Additionally, a glance at the table below tells what was happening to the
components of demand.
YEAR
GD
P
CON
SUMP
TION
INVES
TMEN
T
GOVER
N
MENT
PUR
EXPORT
S
IMPORTS
NET
EXPO
RTS
CHASE
S
1929
790
.9
593.9
92.4
105.4
35.6
46.3
-10.7
1930
719
.7
562.1
59.8
116.2
29.4
40.3
-10.9
1931
674
.0
544.9
37.6
121.2
24.4
35.2
-10.8
1932
584
.3
496.1
9.9
117.1
19.1
29.2
-10.1
1933
577
.3
484.8
16.4
112.8
19.2
30.4
-11.2
The above table indicates that consumer purchases fell somewhat, governments'
purchases did not fall at all compared with 1929 but there was a catastrophic
collapse of investment purchases. Exports fell but imports fell as well so that there
was not much of a change in net exports.
The problem in the early 1930's was that the rate of inflation was
negative; i.e., there was deflation instead of inflation. This meant that
borrowers would have to pay back more valuable dollars than the ones
they borrowed.
RATE OF
INFLATIO
N
%
NOMINAL
INTEREST
RATE
%
REAL
INTEREST
RATE
%
YEAR
PRICE
INDEX
1929
13.12
1930
12.60
-3.96
3.59
7.87
1931
11.34
-10.00
2.64
14.04
1932
10.05
-11.38
2.73
15.92
1933
9.78
-2.96
1.73
4.54
--
5.85
--
Road to Recovery:
former governor of Louisiana, the powerful and ruthless spokesman of the displaced
who ran the state like a personal fiefdom. (If he had not been assassinated, Long
very likely would have launched a presidential challenge to Franklin Roosevelt in
1936.)
In the face of these pressures from left and right, President Roosevelt backed a new
set of economic and social measures. Prominent among these were measures to
fight poverty, to counter unemployment with work and to provide a social safety
net.
The Works Progress Administration (WPA), the principal relief agency of the so-called
second New Deal, was an attempt to provide work rather than welfare. Under the
WPA, buildings, roads, airports and schools were constructed. Actors, painters,
musicians and writers were employed through the Federal Theater Project, the
Federal Art Project and the Federal Writers Project. In addition, the National Youth
Administration gave part-time employment to students, established training
programs and provided aid to unemployed youth. The WPA only included about
three million jobless at a time; when it was abandoned in 1943 it had helped a total
of 9 million people.
But the New Deal's cornerstone, according to Roosevelt, was the Social Security Act
of 1935. Social Security created a system of insurance for the aged, unemployed
and disabled based on employer and employee contributions. Many other
industrialized nations had already enacted such programs, but calls for such an
initiative in the United States by the Progressives in the early 1900s had gone
unheeded. Although conservatives complained that the Social Security system went
against American traditions, it was actually relatively conservative. Social Security
was funded in large part by taxes on the earnings of current workers, with a single
fixed rate for all regardless of income. To Roosevelt, these limitations on the
programs were compromises to ensure passage. Although its origins were initially
quite modest, Social Security today is one of the largest domestic programs
administered by the U.S. government.
Conclusion
The most devastating impact of the Great Depression was human suffering. In a
short period of time, world output and standards of living dropped precipitously. As
much as one-fourth of the labour force in industrialized countries was unable to find
work in the early 1930s. While conditions began to improve by the mid-1930s, total
recovery was not accomplished until the end of the decade.
Bibliography
Internet:
Wikipedia.com
Investopedia.com
economics.fundamentalfinance.com
Articles from:
o www.jstor.com
o Econpaper.repec.org
Books:
Modern Economic Theory: KK Dewett
Principles of Macro economics( vol 1): N. Gregory Mankiw
Economics Study Material as compiled by Ass. Prof. Rajesh Gautam