THE METHODOLOGY
OF GEOPOLITICS
Understanding the world from a new
perspective
INTRODUCTION
Forecasting and the Human Condition
Birth and Love
Love of Ones Own Writ Large
Place and Fear
Time and Resistance
THE PURPOSE OF GEOPOLITICS
The study of geopolitics tries to distinguish between those
things that are eternal, those things that are of long duration
and those things that are transitory using the prism of
geography and power.
Geopolitical inquiry not only describes, but seeks to predict,
what will happen.
Geopolitics is the next generations common sense.
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF HISTORY
and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllables of recorded time,
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death.
Lifes but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
-- MACBETH ACT 5, SCENE 5
THE TROUBLE WITH SHAKESPEARE
If history is random and meaningless, predicting the future
is impossible.
Forecasting is built into the human condition. All actions
taken are intended to have a predictable outcome.
Knowledge is imperfect, and some outcomes are not as
predicted.
BUT
the gulf between the UNCERTAINTY of a prediction and
the IMPOSSIBILITY of a prediction is vast.
RESISTANCE TO UNCERTAINTY
The search for predictability
suffuses all of the human
condition.
-- Dr. George Friedman
THOUGHTS ON FORECASTING
The simplest sort of forecast is about nature, since it lacks will
and cannot make choices. (For instance, Saturn will not
suddenly change its orbit in a fit of pique.)
The hardest things to predict involve human behavior.
Entire sciences are devoted to the forecasting of human
behavior:
Econometrics
Military modeling
Stock and labor market analysis
Etc.
THOUGHTS ON FORECASTING
All these systems operate in the same way:
Use of statistical models to predict general behavior.
Economic and war models both try to predict behavior of many
individuals interacting with nature and technology.
Birth and Love
BEGIN WITH THE OBVIOUS
To forecast the behavior of humans, begin with the simplest, most
obvious facts about humans. Dont leap ahead:
Humans are born and die.
Humans protect and care for themselves and their young by forming
families.
THE STRENGTHS OF TOGETHERNESS
Most families dont live in isolation, but within social systems
and constructs designed for further protection and economic
viability:
TRIBES
CITIES
Steven Muster
Pixabay
STATES/COUNTRIES
Ron Miguel
Colin Babb
TOWNS
VILLAGES
Rod Waddington
Public domain
CLANS
LOVE AND TRUST
With whom should one ally to create a larger community beyond
immediate family?
Historically, in-laws and relatives.
Why should you trust a relative more than a stranger?
The love of ones own stands at the heart of any understanding of
how humans behave and whether that behavior can be predicted. It
also contrasts sharply with a competing vision of love the love of
acquired things, a tension that defines the last 500 years of
European and world history.
10
A STRUGGLE FOR THE AGES
The idea that this acquired love,
which includes romantic love,
should pre-empt the love of ones
own introduces a radical new
dynamic to history, in which the
individual and choice supersede
community and obligation.
11
BACK TO SHAKESPEARE
Romeo and Juliet
Montagues and Capulets are warring
clans
Romeo and Juliet are smitten
Which love takes precedence?
Love of ones own family, religion,
tradition?
Acquired love chosen to please the
individual?
12
A CONFLICT OF LOYALTIES
In traditional societies, marriages are/were often arranged
promoting loyalty and obligation to family and tradition over the
individual.
As a dynamic, the notion of romantic or acquired love a la
Romeo and Juliet suggests the individual and choice
supersede community and obligation.
American Declaration of Independence elevates life, liberty
and the pursuit of happiness over obligation a shift from
traditional societies.
13
INTRODUCING IDEOLOGY
Europe: Revolutionary Protestantism and the Enlightenment
Protestantism elevates conscience to the pinnacle of human
faculties, and conscience dictates choice.
The Enlightenment: Choice + Reason = Idea:
The individual is bound not by what he is taught to believe, but
what his own reason tells him is just and proper .
14
THE EUROPEAN ENLIGHTENMENT
Tradition is superseded
by reason and the old
regime superseded by
artificially constructed
regimes forged in
revolution.
-- Dr. George Friedman
15
BIRTH AND MODERNITY
Modernity is the enemy of birth in general.
Old order: Dynasties, empires and monarchies distributed
rights based on birth.
Modern revolutionary regimes: Hold that birth is an accident
that gives no one authority. Rights are distributed based on
individual achievement and demonstrated virtue, not virtue
assumed at birth.
16
Love of Ones
Own Writ Large
A STRUGGLE FOR THE AGES
struggle between the love of ones
The
own and the love of acquired things has
been the hallmark of the last 500 years. It
has been a struggle between traditional
societies in which obligations derive from
birth and are imposed by a natural, simple
and unreflective love of ones own and
revolutionary societies in which
obligations derive from choice and from a
complex, self-aware love of things that are
acquired lovers or regimes.
17
INTRODUCING NATIONALISM
The love of ones own community, clan or nationality -- is an
ALMOST overpowering impulse.
Almost = not quite: Self-love and love of acquired things are
celebrated in the modern age.
i.e., Citizenship can be acquired or renounced
Place of birth and history can never be shed
18
A NOD TO ADAM SMITH
The Wealth of Nations
Economist belief: Primary purpose of
the individual = maximize self-interest
in the material sense to acquire wealth
All men will naturally seek to acquire
wealth if left to their own devices
Self-interest is a natural impulse.
19
IF SMITH IS WHOLLY CORRECT
Altruism is impossible.
No soldier would consent to fight and die for the sake of an idea
or country.
Self-sacrifice is illogical.
Nationalism could not exist.
20
NATIONALISM AND LOVE OF ONES OWN
This is one of those cases
in which the imagination is
baffled by the facts.
-- Adam Smith
21
NATIONAL SELF-DETERMINATION: AN IDEAL
Concept born of European and American revolutions.
Pre-revolution: Dynasties governed nations by right of birth.
European revolutions: Goal was to break the regime.
Driving force: Love of ones own community and nation, hatred of
foreign domination.
Doctrine of national self-determination emerged as a principle,
coinciding with doctrine of rights of man.
22
AN INESCAPABLE FORCE
the root of modern liberal
At
society, the eccentric heart of the
human condition continues to beat
the love of ones own.
There is no escape from
love of ones own, at least
not for the mass of
humanity
23
AN INESCAPABLE FORCE
Nietzche spoke of horizons. A horizon is an optical
but it is a comforting illusion. It gives you the
illusion,
sense that the world is manageable rather than
enormously larger than you are. The horizon gives you
a sense of place that frames you and your community.
It relieves you of the burden of thinking about the
vastness of things. It gives you a manageable place,
and place, after love, defines who you are
the most.
24
Place and Fear
THE IMPORTANCE OF PLACE
D. Wilkinson
The nature of communities
whether cities, nations or
nomadic groups derives
from place.
25
THE IMPORTANCE OF PLACE
Heequals2henry
Geography helps to shape
culture.
26
OBSERVATIONS ON GEOGRAPHY
In addition to culture,
geography helps determine
strengths, imperatives and
constraints of a nation-state or
community.
For example:
27
GEOGRAPHY: MOUNTAINS
When located along
borders, mountains
help to defend against
invasion and promote
the growth of an
economy and culture.
28
GEOGRAPHY: MOUNTAINS
Located within borders,
mountains are often
home to insular clans
or societies with
distinctive cultures.
Insurgencies and
ethno-sectarian strife
may be found in these
regions (example:
Balkans).
29
GEOGRAPHY: RIVERS
Rivers are conducive
to trade, capital
formation and the
wealth of a society
as long as they flow
in the right direction.
30
GEOGRAPHY: RIVERS
Rivers are conducive
to trade, capital
formation and the
wealth of a society
as long as they flow
in the right direction.
(Russias dont.)
31
GEOGRAPHY: PLAINS
A well-watered plain is
conducive to farming,
agriculture and some
degree of selfsufficiency for a
society.
Plains are also a
traditional avenue for
attacking armies in
times of war.
32
A FEW WORDS ON FEAR
Love of ones own is quickly followed by fear of the other.
Fear is a constant between separate communities, living in
proximity.
Unknown intentions = distrust and fear.
Distrust drives pre-emptive action to ward off worst-case
scenarios.
33
THE KEY POINT
and other communities act
Nations
out of fear far more than they act
out of greed or love. The fear of
catastrophe drives foreign policies
of nomadic tribes and nationstates. That fear, in turn, is driven
by place. Geography defines
opportunities; it also defines
vulnerabilities and weaknesses.
The fear of dependence and
destruction drives nations a fear
that is ultimately rooted in place.
34
Time and
Resistance
WEALTH AND CLASS: ONGOING FRICTIONS
Communities are not homogeneous, and rarely behave as a
single organism. Each community may be home to different:
ETHNIC GROUPS
The distinction between rich and poor remains the most
essential it helps to frame identity and predict behavior.
35
Ariff Ahmad Tajuddin
SOCIAL CLASSES
Hepingting
Public domain
RELIGIOUS GROUPS
OBSERVATIONS ON CLASS AND MARXISM
the rich and the intellectual, an optical
For
illusion frequently emerges: that
nationalism doesnt really matter. The
worlds richest people, able to place layers
of technology and servants between
themselves and nature, live far more like
each other than like their own countrymen.
Wealth appears to dissolve place. The
same with the intelligentsia, who have more
in common with each other than with the
townsfolk who serve the food at the
university.
36
OBSERVATIONS ON CLASS AND MARXISM
One would think that similar universalization of interest
would take place among poorer people. Karl Marx argued
that the workers have no country and they feel
transnational solidarity with other workers. But there is not
the slightest empirical evidence that the workers or
peasants have felt they have no country or, at least,
community. Certainly, the 20th century has been the
graveyard of intellectual fantasies about the indifference of
lower classes to national interest.
37
TWO AXES OF COMMUNITY
When catastrophe occurs, who
shares your fate?
Small communities
(example: Israel): All are
affected, rich and poor
alike
Larger communities are
impacted to differing
degrees, based on the
resources available to
individuals
38
LARGE COMMUNITY
POOR
RICH
SMALL COMMUNITY
TWO AXES OF COMMUNITY
Conclusion: As a rule, poorer
classes are more conservative
about taking risks, and less
resilient if risk-taking results in
loss.
LARGE COMMUNITY
POOR
RICH
SMALL COMMUNITY
39
FEARS OF THE COMMON MAN
love is the first emotion that men
Ifexperience,
then fear is the second. Love
of ones own is rapidly followed by fear of
the other. The weaker the person, the
fewer the resources he has and the more
dependent he is on the community he
inhabits. The more dependent he is, the
more cautious he will be in taking risks.
The common man lives his life
in fear and he is not at all
irrational in doing so.
40
CLASS STRUGGLE IN THE DEMOCRATIC AGE
Struggle between (wealthy) internationalists and (common)
nationalists.
Internationalists: Transnational adventures the IMF, WTO,
European Union, NAFTA will benefit society as a whole in the
long run.
Common man: Less capacity to invest in, and sacrifice for, the
long run.
The distant future is a prospect that only the wealthy can enjoy.
41
FUNDAMENTAL TENSION BETWEEN NATIONS
AND INDIVIDUALS
Economic growth, on a macro scale, is a multi-generational
endeavor.
Societies and people run on different clocks:
Society counts in terms of generations and centuries
Individuals count in terms of years and decades
42
THE BOTTOM LINE
most circumstances, where the
Under
individuals affected are few and
disorganized, the nation grinds down the
individual. In those cases where the
individual understands that his children
might make a significant leap forward, the
individual might acquiesce. But when the
affected individuals form a substantial
bloc, and when even the doubling of an
economy might not make a significant
difference in the happiness of children,
they might well resist.
43
THE BOTTOM LINE
Focus on the clock on the
different scales of time, and how
they change things.
44
IMAGE CREDITS
The Hatfield Clan in 1897, U.S. public domain
Hamer Tribe, Turbi, Ethiopia, Rod Waddington, shared under terms of the Creative Commons AttributionShareAlike 2.0 Generic license.*
Shanklin Old Village, Steven Muster for the Geograph project collection, shared under terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license.*
Victorian Town, Blists Hill, Colin Babb for the Geograph project collection, shared under terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license.*
Atlantic City at Night, Ron Miguel, shared under terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic
license.**
Europe at the Beginning of the War of the Spanish Succession, 1700, public domain
An Inuit boy untangles dogsled harnesses, D. Wilkinson, 1952, via Library and Archives Canada, shared under
terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.**
Times Square, looking south from 47th, Hequals2henry, shared under the Creative Commons AttributionShareAlike 3.0 Unported license.***
Jerusalem, Dome of the Rock, public domain
Group of friends smiling, Hepingting via Flickr, shared under terms of the Creative Commons AttributionShareAlike 2.0 Generic license.*
Beggar at Petaling Street, Ariff Tajuddin, shared under terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic
license.**
Note: Non-Stratfor images have been used here for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended to imply
endorsement of Stratfor by any artist. No outside artwork has been altered in any way, other than cropping or resizing
for purposes of this presentation.
*Terms of the license can be viewed at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
**Terms of the license can be viewed at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en
***Terms of the license can be viewed at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en
Stay Connected With Us
facebook.com
/Stratfor
stratfor.com/contact
@Stratfor
linkedin.com/
company/
stratfor
www.stratfor.com
221 West 6th Street, Suite 400
Austin, TX 78701
STRATFORvideo
512.744.4300
