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    Toplines Questions 1

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    Andrew Rafferty
    NBC News Online Poll: Public Opinion on Democratic Primary

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    Toplines Questions 1

    Uploaded by

    Andrew Rafferty
    1K views2 pages
    NBC News Online Poll: Public Opinion on Democratic Primary

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    NBC News Online Poll: Public Opinion on Democratic Primary

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    1K views2 pages

    Toplines Questions 1

    Uploaded by

    Andrew Rafferty
    NBC News Online Poll: Public Opinion on Democratic Primary

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 2

    TOPLINES Questions 1-13, 15-30 held for future releases.

    [ASK OF DEMOCRATS AND LEAN DEMOCRATS]


    14. Here is a list of possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If
    the 2016 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for
    whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-4]

    Joe Biden
    Lincoln Chafee
    Hillary Clinton
    Lawrence Lessig
    Martin OMalley
    Bernie Sanders
    Elizabeth Warren
    Jim Webb
    Someone else
    Wouldnt vote/ Dont
    know
    No answer

    10.27-29.15
    RV
    NA
    NA
    50
    1
    1
    30
    NA
    NA
    5
    12

    10.13-15.15
    RV
    10
    45
    1
    31
    NA
    1
    2
    9

    9.17-18.15
    RV
    15
    41
    1
    29
    NA
    1
    3
    9

    8.7-10.15
    RV
    11
    49
    NA
    1
    25
    NA
    1
    4
    9

    7.20-26.15
    RV
    7
    48
    NA
    1
    26
    NA
    1
    3
    13

    4.6-8.15
    RV
    7
    NA
    50
    NA
    2
    5
    16
    1
    1
    19

    METHODOLOGY
    The NBC News Online Poll was conducted online by SurveyMonkey October 27-29, 2015 among a
    national sample of 8,706 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were
    selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on the
    SurveyMonkey platform each day.
    Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census
    Bureaus American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
    Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a
    probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to
    multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement
    error. Polls conducted in one day may include additional error due to the limited time period that
    panelists have to respond to and complete the survey.
    To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap
    confidence interval to produce an error estimate, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 5000
    independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average.
    When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into
    consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of
    sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent of
    voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A
    could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent
    of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead."

    The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been
    calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an
    even split in most groupings (such as gender):

    Group

    Unweighted N

    Plus or minus

    Total sample

    8,706

    1.5 percentage points

    Republican RVs

    3,387

    2.3 percentage points

    Democrat RVs

    1,226

    3.7 percentage points

    18-29

    1,247

    3.7 percentage points

    30-44

    2,679

    2.7 percentage points

    45-64

    3,177

    2.4 percentage points

    65+

    1,603

    3.5 percentage points

    White

    6,631

    1.7 percentage points

    Black

    737

    4.6 percentage points

    Hispanic

    682

    4.9 percentage points

    Other

    656

    5.0 percentage points

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