Created by JITxpert July 2010

PushBot Instruction Manual

Created by JITxpert
July 2010

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Contents
Summary of the PushBot Spreadsheet
cEV Tabs
PushBot
CallBot
Resteal Bot

ICM ($EV) Tabs

PushBot
CallBot
Resteal Bot

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Summary
The spreadsheet is essentially a calculator that
performs cEV and $EV calculations
The results are expressed in a 13x13 card matrix,
and the +cEV/+$EV cells are highlighted
All $EV calculations are estimates using the bubble
factor formulas (as described in the book Kill
Everyone)
The data table was created using PokerStove
Most cells are locked, so you cannot corrupt the
formulas

Created by JITxpert July 2010

cEV PushBot
The basic calculation to see if an open shove has a positive
expectation is:
Your stack when you steal the blinds + Your stack when win when you double up Starting
Stack

Expressing this equation in terms of independent variables

[(Starting Stack + pre flop pot) * % of times everyone folds + % of time someone calls * [(pre
flop pot + 2 * Starting Stack) * equity against villains range] Starting Stack

What this calculator does is calculate the expected stack of an

open shove (expressed as M) for every possible hand based on
the (effective) size of the stack you are shoving, the blinds and
antes, the number of players left to act, and their assumed
calling range. Every cell in the 13x13 card grid displays the
expected long term M based on the variables listed.
I chose to display long term M instead of cEV because as you get
to 1,000,000 chips, it wouldnt fit in the cell.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Example
Lets say you are in the CO with 4850, blinds are 150/300/25. Your
M is 7.5, you have 16ish BBs. The table right now is 8 handed.
If you believe villains will only call a shove with the top 11% of
hands, what are the hands that you can profitably push?

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Using the PushBot tab, enter your stack size (the effective stack
size), the blinds, antes, and players at the table.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Next, enter the number of players left to act, and their assumed
calling range.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

All hands that produce a +cEV shove are colored yellow or green
in the 13x13 matrix, with the long term M of the shove the value
in the cell. The percentage of hands that are +cEV is here.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

If you want to filter out marginal shoves or highlight green those

very profitable shoves, you can change the percentages in the
ROI Filter

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Inputting 3% in the RED CELLS will highlight only those hands

that produce a >3% ROI. This drops the % of shove hands
(down to 14.3% from 38.8%). Inputting 15% in the GREEN
CELLS will shade in green only those hands that produce a
>15% ROI.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

cEV CallBot
Calling an all in is a pot odds calculation. So this spreadsheet
compares the pot odds being offered to the equity your hand
has against the villains shoving range. If the equity of your
hand against villains range is > the pot odds, its a pot odds
call.
The CallBot Spreadsheet displays in the 13x13 matrix the % equity
that hand has against villains shoving range. If that equity is
greater than the equity needed to make the call, the cell is
shaded yellow or green.
Lets say you are playing a turbo SnG, blinds are 200/400/50, and
someone with 4850 shoves from the CO. You are in the BB and
have villain covered. What hands can you profitably call?

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Enter the pot size, and the amount you have to call the AI, and estimate villains
shoving range (make sure it is the effective pot, and not overstated if villain
has you covered).
Green and yellow cells are pot odds calls. The % of calling hands is also
displayed.
You can filter out marginal calls or highlight good calls the same way as you did
with PushBot.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

cEV RestealBot
A Resteal is favorable when the following is true:
Your stack when you steal the blinds and villain raise + Your stack when you are called and
double up Heros Resteal (starting) Stack

Expressing this equation in terms of independent variables

[(pre flop pot + villains raise + Resteal Stack) * Villains Fold %] + [(1 Villains Fold %) * (pre
flop pot + 2 * Resteal Stack) * equity against villains range] Resteal Stack

Solving this equitation for Villains Fold %

Villains Fold %
[Resteal Stack - (pre flop pot + 2 * Resteal Stack) * equity against villains range)] /
[pre flop pot + villains raise - equity against villains range * (pre flop pot + 2 * Resteal Stack)]

The RestealBot Spreadsheet displays in the 13x13 matrix the % of

time villain has to fold their open raise in order for the Resteal
to have a positive expectation.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

You are in the BB with 7000 chips after posting at the 125/250/25
level. The table is 9 handed and the CO opens to 750. You think
the CO is opening about top 19% here, but will only call a shove
with top 7.4% (so will fold (19-7.4)/19 or about 60% of the time).
What hands produce a +cEV shove?

First, enter the BB, antes, players at the table.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Enter villains raise size, their calling range, how much you have
behind to resteal with (After posting if you are in the blinds.
And again, use effective if you have villain covered).

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Estimate how often villain will fold. To help with this, look at the two
columns where you can see what open percentage correlates to the
fold/calling ranges. In our example, if villain is calling a shove with top
7.5% and folds 60%, their assumed open range is 18.48%.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Cells in green are +cEV resteals. Cells in black are unexploitable

resteals (even if villain calls 100% of the time, it is +cEV due to your
equity against the calling range and the overlay). The cell value is
the % of time villain needs to fold for it to be a neutral cEV play.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

If we change one assumption, that villain instead would open top

30% from the CO, but still calls with only top 7.5%. Now, villain is
folding 75% of their open range, making the following hands
profitable resteals.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Changing one more assumption, villain opens top 30% from the
CO, but calls a little looser, lets say top 11%. So villain is folding
out 62% of their open range. Now see what can be a +cEV resteal.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

cEV Notes
All the data for each hands equity against the pre
defined ranges are under the tab Equity Data for
Ranges. This table was created by me inputting
each hand into PokerStove, calculating it against the
range, then copy and pasting the result in the table.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

ICM Bots
The ICM Bot tabs are exactly the same as the cEV tabs
except:
You need to estimate your bubble factor. The bubble factor is the $
loss in prize pool equity if the play fails divided by the $ gained if
the play succeeds. (To learn how estimate Bubble Factors, troll the
threads, or read Kill Everyone.)

Things to note
The bubble factor can never be < 1.0 (according to ICM)
Setting the bubble factor = 1 will produce the same results as the
cEV Bots
Calculate your bubble factor before posting blinds and antes. Then
every pot odds decision you make from that point forward will get
corrected by the bubble factor.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

ICM Bots

To do the ICM estimates, I converted all the Equity Data to

Odds (expressed as X:1). The data is under the tab Odds Data
for Ranges
In Kill Everyone, you can compensate for the non-linearity of chip
value to prize pool equity for any pot odds decision by dividing pot
odds by the Bubble Factor. Your hands equity against villains
range has to be greater than the Pot Odds divided by the Bubble
Factor for the play to be +$EV.
Hand equity (expressed as odds) > Pot Odds / Bubble Factor

Once you know a hands equity (expressed as odds) against a

range, you can calculate the Pot Odds required to have the play be
$EV favorable.
Hand Equity * Bubble Factor > Pot Odds being offered

The spreadsheet converts the prize pool corrected equity for each
hand back to equity expressed as %, and then performs all of the
standard calculations in the 13x13 matrix.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

For Example
AJs has 0.47078 equity against the Top 11% range in
the spreadsheet (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo)
Converting the equity to odds, AJs has 1.12:1 odds
against the range
If you assume a bubble factor of 1.5, the spreadsheet
corrects the odds for AJs against that range, so now
the odds are (1.12*1.5):1, or 1.68:1
Converting the prize pool corrected odds back to %
equity gives 1- (1.68/2.68) = 0.37313
All the ICM Bot Tabs will then use the prize pool
corrected equity for AJs against that range when
doing the standard calculations

Created by JITxpert July 2010

ICM PushBot Example

Remember the PushBot Example from earlier? Exact same

assumptions, but this time, you are at the final table. The BTN,
SB and BB have you covered, and the UTG and MP player are
both short.
Prior to posting, you estimate that you have $500 of prize pool
equity. If you shove and bust, the payout is $250. If you shove
and double up, your prize pool equity increases to $625.
Your bubble factor in this spot is (500-250)/(625-500) = 1.5

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Enter all the same information as before.

Now enter the Bubble Factor. Notice when the bubble factor = 1,
you have the same answer as the cEV PushBot.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Change the bubble factor to 1.5. Notice how many hands drop out due to
the prize pool equity loss when you get called. You go from profitably
shoving 38% of hands to just 8%.
This highlights the phenomena of non-linear $ value of chips in a
tournament. The value of the chips you would win by getting called is
less than the value of the chips you would lose. Thus, you need much
better odds for winning for the shove to be profitable.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

ICM RestealBot Example

Remember the RestealBot Example from earlier? Exact same

assumptions, but this time, you are at the final table and the CO
has you covered.
Prior to posting, you estimate that you have $500 of prize pool
equity. If you shove and bust, the payout is $250. If you shove
and double up, your equity increases to $625.
Your bubble factor in this spot is (500-250)/(625-500) = 1.5

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Enter all the same information as before.

Now enter the Bubble Factor. Notice when the bubble factor = 1,
you have the same answer as the cEV RestealBot.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Changing the Bubble Factor to 1.5 changes the number of

profitable resteal hands. The number of profitable resteal hands
is greatly reduced. Also the number of unexploitable hands
changes.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Dont forget, ICM affects villain as well! So you have to consider

that he will tighten up his calling range (thus folding out more
hands). So try this with some new assumptions.
Change calling range to top 5%. Now, to get to his open range to
about the same as before, you need to have villain fold 72% of
the time. Now see what makes a profitable resteal.

Created by JITxpert July 2010

Closing ICM Thoughts

The Bubble Factor way of doing ICM is an easy to do on the

fly estimate. Straight ICM calcs are always more accurate than
the estimates provided by bubble factors.
Because the minute you or anyone else puts chips in the pot,
everyones equity changes, using bubble factors will only ever
be an estimate and never be as accurate as doing a straight
ICM calc.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36/stt-strategy/icm-101-calling-shoves-1k-post-227022/

The above link will produce the exact result for how to call a
shove with ICM considerations, where as using bubble factors
will get you close (within a percent or two).

SnG Wiz is more accurate than this spreadsheet. It can handle

overcalls, different calling ranges for villains, and perform
exact ICM calcs.