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Population Calcultion Method

The document discusses 7 methods for predicting future population: 1. Uniform Growth Rate Method - Assumes a constant increment of growth is added periodically. 2. Uniform Percentage Growth Rate Method - Assumes a constant percentage of growth each period. 3. Decreasing Growth Rate Method - Similar to #2 but with a decreasing rather than constant growth rate. 4. Graphical Extension Methods - Extends the population curve into the future by eye-estimation. 5. Graphical Comparison Method - Extends the population curve based on comparing to curves of similar cities. 6. Empirical Method - Uses an empirical formula to calculate future population based on present population and growth rate. 7.

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Adnan Chowdhury
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302 views3 pages

Population Calcultion Method

The document discusses 7 methods for predicting future population: 1. Uniform Growth Rate Method - Assumes a constant increment of growth is added periodically. 2. Uniform Percentage Growth Rate Method - Assumes a constant percentage of growth each period. 3. Decreasing Growth Rate Method - Similar to #2 but with a decreasing rather than constant growth rate. 4. Graphical Extension Methods - Extends the population curve into the future by eye-estimation. 5. Graphical Comparison Method - Extends the population curve based on comparing to curves of similar cities. 6. Empirical Method - Uses an empirical formula to calculate future population based on present population and growth rate. 7.

Uploaded by

Adnan Chowdhury
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Population Calculation Method

The present population may be obtained from recent census with reasonable alterations.
Future prediction is based on the knowledge of the city and its environments, commerce and
industries and their expansion, development of surrounding countries, etc. Helpful in
predictions will be the study of population trends of similar cities and consultations with local
people and officials. The following seven methods are generally used for predicting
population:
(1) Uniform Growth Rate Method : In this method, a constant increment of growth is
added periodically. For example, if the population increased from 90,000 to 100,000 in
a period of five years, it would increase by an increment of 10,00 in the next five year
period. This method is also known as the Arithmetical Progression Method.
(2) Uniform Percentage Growth Rate Method : In this method, a constant
percentage of growth is assumed for equal periods of time. For example, if the,
population increased from 100,000 to 110,000 during the past decade, it would
increase 10 per cent to 121,000 during the next decade.
(3) Decreasing Growth Rate Method : This method is similar to the uniform
percentage growth but with an arbitrary assumption of a decreasing rather than a
constant rate of increase.

(4) Graphical Extension Methods : In this method, the population time curve is
extended into future date by eye-estimation. This method is also known as the
Curvilinear method.

(5) Graphical Comparison Method: This method involves the extension of the
population-time curve of the city under study into the future based on a comparison
with population-time curves of similar cities. In the this method, the population-time
curves are plotted as indicated in Fig. 2.3 with the curves for all cities passing through
the same point, represented by the present population of the city for which the
predication is to be made. Projections based on studies of migrations, and on other
predicted factors may be used to modify the results of the graphical comparison
method. This method gives promise of a reliable prediction as it is based on a logical
study of the past and future conditions. This method is also known as the Modified
Curvilinear Method.
In Fig. given below the population-time curve for the city A, is plotted upto the year 1960 in
which its population was 40,000. City B reached 40,000 in the year 1930, so its curve is
plotted from the year 1930 onwards. Similarly, curves are drawn for cities C, D, and E from
the year they reached A's population of 1960 ; i.e. 40,000. The curve of the city A can now be
continued allowing it to be influenced by the rates or growth of cities B, C, D and E.

(6) Empirical Method : The following empirical formula Was suggested by Hardenberg :

where P f = future population


P p =present population
r = probable rate of yearly or per decade increase
n = number of years to be considered.
When the population data of the past decades are available the average
value of r can be computed from the following expression

where P 1 and P 2 are to population data at two dates of n number of years.

This method should be used carefully as it may give erroneously high results
when applied to young and rapidly advancing cities having expansion of short
duration only. This method is also known as the Geometrical Progression method.

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