Weekly Mutual Fund and Debt Report: Retail Research

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April 20, 2015

Weekly Mutual Fund and Debt Report

RETAIL RESEARCH
Equity Markets
Markets fell to their lowest level in almost two weeks, with the Nifty down 2% in the week to end at
8,606. S&P BSE Sensex declined 437.28 points or 1.51% to settle at 28,442.10. The week started on a
positive note but turned decisively weak in the last three sessions despite positive macro cues and deals
struck during Prime Minister Narendra Modis three-nation tour. The recent rise in global crude oil prices
also weighed on sentiments. The recent rise in global crude oil prices will raise concerns pertaining to
India's fiscal deficit, current account deficit and fuel price inflation.
The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 2.95%. The BSE Small-Cap index lost 2.40%. The fall in both these indcies was
higher than Sensex's return in percentage terms.

Outlook for the current weeks


The next batch of quarterly earnings of India Inc, proceedings of second half of budget session,
macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the
movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate the trend on the bourses
this week.
Stock-specific action will be seen as companies announce their earnings for the quarter ended 31 March
2015 this week. Major companies announcing their results this week include Hindustan Zinc, HCL
Technologies, Wipro, Yes Bank, Cairn India, HDFC Bank and Ultratech Cement.
If in coming sessions Nifty sustains above 8600 level then traders may see reversal in current trend, which
could lead Nifty to 8690 level. If Nifty does not sustains above 8600 level then traders may see correction
in Nifty up to 8460 level.

Global Markets
Markets touched fresh lows, driven by a new round of jitters over Greek finances, a crackdown on stockmarket borrowing in China and a flurry of subpar U.S. corporate earnings. The declines followed weeks of
stocks grinding higher, and some traders and strategists noted equities were set for a pullback. The main
indexes recorded their first weekly losses after two consecutive weeks of gains. S&P 500 recorded a 1%
loss over the week. Dow Jones ended the week 1.3% lower. Nasdaq Composite lost 1.3% over the week.

Weekly Statistics
Global Index

17-Apr

10-Apr

Change (%)

Sensex

28442

28879

-1.51

Nifty

8606

8780

-1.99

DJIA

17826

18058

-1.28

Nasdaq

4932

4996

-1.28

FTSE

6995

7090

-1.34

DAX

11689

12375

-5.54

Hang Seng

27653

27272

+1.40

Nikkei

19653

19908

-1.28

Bovespa

53955

54214

-0.48

Indonesia Jakarta

5411

5491

-1.47

Singapore Strait

3525

3472

+1.52

MSCI Emerging Mkt

1043

1035

+0.78

Mutual Fund Categories watch


Category Name

1 Week
Absolute

1 Month
Absolute

3 Month
Absolute

6 Month
Absolute

1 Year
CAGR

3 Year
CAGR

Arbitrage Funds

-0.04

0.71

2.12

4.72

8.56

8.86

Balanced - Equity

-1.58

-0.35

2.12

13.31

36.66

20.31

Equity - Banking

-2.44

-3.40

-4.22

15.27

43.69

20.46

Equity - Div Yield

-1.90

0.12

1.26

14.81

44.89

19.76

Equity - Infra

-1.88

0.09

3.49

18.31

50.13

17.62

Equity - Large Cap

-2.45

-1.25

1.93

15.16

39.71

20.58

Equity - Mid Cap

-2.12

0.47

3.27

21.58

65.38

31.21

Equity - MNC

-0.89

2.51

10.22

39.61

87.02

33.31

Equity - Multi CAP

-2.25

-0.64

2.76

17.07

46.25

23.44

Equity - Small Cap

-1.39

3.43

5.97

28.83

92.39

34.88

Equity - FMCG

0.21

2.76

3.89

17.61

31.92

22.33

Equity - Infotech

-3.23

-3.66

0.26

10.31

29.81

27.13

Equity - Pharma

-4.51

0.94

14.09

26.25

64.60

36.08

ELSS

-2.32

-1.03

2.17

17.49

46.41

23.61

Gold ETFs

-6.68

-3.57

-10.26

-8.96

-12.73

-7.24

Gilt Funds

0.11

0.40

1.27

8.28

15.25

9.62

Income Funds

0.11

0.58

1.28

6.44

12.41

9.31

Liquid Funds

0.15

0.71

1.99

4.04

8.34

8.60

MIP

-0.30

0.39

1.59

7.59

16.59

10.71

Note: Trailing Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are CAGR. NAV/index values are as on Apr 17, 2015.

RETAIL RESEARCH

G sec Markets

10 Year G sec Benchmark move:

Indian bond yields ended down during the week April 17th, 2015. The G-Sec market opened marginally
lower on Monday tracking rise in US Treasury yields. Subsequently, market stayed largely range bound
ahead of first G-Sec auction of FY16.
The G-Sec market was closed on Tuesday on account of Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti
The G-Sec market traded mostly on a positive note on Wednesday seeing a lower than expected reading
on CPI inflation, as per the data released on Monday, and a negative WPI inflation data released on
Tuesday.
Following the positive surprise on CPI inflation, G-Sec market opened on a stronger footing on Thursday.
Overall, bonds rallied in range of 1-2 bps across the curve.
On Friday, Bond market opened on a weak note taking negative cues from rise in crude oil prices.
Subsequently, yields trended with hardening bias as underlying tone of the market remained cautious.
The market then improved slightly as the auction results came in line with expectations.

Liquidity:

Hence, the yields of the 10-year benchmark 8.40% 2024 bond ended down by 1 bps at 7.79% (Rs 103.95)
on Friday against the last week close of 7.80%.

Outlook for the week


We feel that the new 10-year G Sec yields could trade in the 7.65% - 7.90% band for the week.

Liquidity, Call & CBLO


The net infusion from the LAF window was a daily average of Rs.13,706 crore for last week (Rs. 3,326
crore in previous week). Infusions via the MSF route averaged Rs. 1,233 cr.
The inter-bank call rates traded around 7.41% levels on Friday.
The CBLO rates were positioned at 7.19% level.

Corporate Debts
The 1 year CD yield ended at 8.40% compared to the previous week close of 8.45%.
The 10-year AAA bond traded at 8.32% compared to the previous week close 8.33%.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Debt Securities Benchmarks watch


Debt (%)

17-Apr

10-Apr

Change (bps)

Call Rate

7.41

7.58

-17

CBLO

7.19

7.45

-26

Repo

7.50

7.50

Reverse Repo

6.50

6.50

10 Year G sec

7.79

7.80

+1

LIBOR UK

0.57

0.56

+1

LIBOR USA

0.28

0.28

LIBOR Europe

-0.01

0.01

-2

Currency
AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec:

The USD depreciated against the Euro by 1.91 % for week ended 17th April 2015.
The dollar depreciated against the yen by 1.10% for the week.
The USD depreciated against the pound by 2.20%.

AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec


Security

17-Apr

10-Apr

1 Year
3 Year
5 Year
10 Year

36
8
42
38

40
6
44
38

Date of Auction

Value (Rs. Crs)

22-Apr-15
22-Apr-15

8,000
6,000

Gold & Crude oil


Forthcoming Auctions;

International crude oil prices (WTI) gained by 7.94% for the week ended 17th April, 2015 to close at USD
55.74 per barrel.

Security
91 Day T-Bill
364 Day T-bill

International gold prices fell for the week ended 17th April, 2015 to close at USD 1203.1 per troy ounce.
Certificates of Deposits:

10 Yr G sec Benchmark Yields Movements in last one month.

Maturity

17-Apr

10-Apr

3 Months
6 Months
1 Year

8.1
8.2
8.3

8.2
8.2
8.3

Commercial Papers:
Maturity

17-Apr

10-Apr

3 Months
6 Months
1 Year

8.7
8.8
8.9

8.6
8.8
8.9

Commodity Update:

RETAIL RESEARCH

Commodity

17-Apr

10-Apr

Change (%)

NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)


Gold (oz/$)

55.74
1203.10

51.64
1204.60

+7.94
-0.12

Scheme Analysis - Axis Equity Fund - G

RETAIL RESEARCH

Key Points
Axis Equity is one of the consistently performing schemes from Diversified Equity Multi-cap category. The
scheme has delivered above average returns since its launch; albeit it has showed average performance
in the recent periods.
The scheme posted +34%,+24% and 13% of compounded returns for the period of one, three and five
years periods while the benchmark CNX Nifty posted +27%, +18% and +10% of returns respectively. For
the same period, the category clocked +46%, 23%and +14% of CAGR returns respectively.
The scheme is predominantly investing in large-cap stocks, with small exposure into mid-caps. The higher
allocation into large-cap stocks however has made the scheme to post middling returns in comparison to
the peers in the recent mid-cap run. However, large-cap orientation along with holding defensive stocks
has helped the scheme to ride the volatile phases in the market quite well.
There has been an average of 94% of assets kept into large-cap stocks considering last one-year period.
The latest portfolio as on Feb 2015 shows 94% of its assets into large cap stocks. Schemes portfolio has
been churned moderately in last six months period as it added 10 new stocks and exited from 14 stocks.
The turnover ratio of the scheme was at 30%.
Infy, HDFC Bank and L&T are the stocks topped in its latest portfolio having weights of 7.89%, 7.64% and
6.11% to its net assets respectively.

Unit Growth of investments Vs. Benchmark(Rebased to 100)

250
200
150
100
50
0
1/5/2010

10

The scheme is managed by Mr. Pankaj Murarka. The corpus of the scheme as on Mar 2015 is at Rs. 1,688
crore.

RETAIL RESEARCH

1/5/2014

Nifty

Monthly Fund Return +/-NIFTY (S&P CNX)

The expense ratio of 2.69% for the scheme is marginally higher than the category average of 2.66%.

Rating agencies Value research & Crisil assigned 4 star & CPR 3 respectively. These ratings reflect good
performance of scheme on generating high-risk adjusted returns.

1/5/2013

Fund Performance Vis-a-vis Benchmark (Excess return):


15

It seems to be less risky while compared to peers as it generated 0.91% (category 0.94%) of Standard
Deviation for last one-year period.

1/5/2012
AXIS Equity

As far as sector exposure is concerned, banks have been the favoured sector in the portfolio over the past
three years with an average 24% exposure followed by software with 15% of the total assets.

As far as risk and return measures are concerned, the scheme has done moderately well in terms of
Sharpe and Jensons Alpha. It registered Sharpe as 0.04% (category 0.04%) and Alpha as 0.02% (category
0.02%).

1/5/2011

-5

-10

1/5/2015

Mutual Fund ready reckoner:


Equity - Diversified - Large CAP
NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity - Plan A (G)


INF209K01BR9

166.45

8603

56.72

25.59

17.15

25.24

ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, ITC


Tata Mot and SBI

CPR 2

4 Star

Average

HDFC Equity Fund - (G)


INF179K01608

475.46

19181

59.67

21.98

16.63

21.11

SBI, ICICI Bank, Infy, L&T


Aurobindo Pharma

CPR 3

3 Star

High

High

ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Equity Fund (G)


INF109K01BL4

30.06

8815

50.15

21.89

17.95

17.68

HDFC Bank Ltd, Infosys Ltd, ICICI Bank


Ltd, ITC Ltd and RIL

CPR 3

5 Star

Low

High

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Return
Grade

Franklin India High Growth Companies (G)


INF090I01981

29.72

1773

89.94

35.37

21.77

15.43

Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki


India, Tech Mahindra & ICICI Bank

CPR 1

5 Star

Risk
Grade
Below
Average

ICICI Pru Dynamic Plan (G)


INF109K01761

193.81

5915

45.37

22.13

16.60

27.19

Power Grid Corp, INFY, HDFC Bank,


Wipro and RIL

CPR 2

4 Star

Below
Average

High

Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund (G)


INF204K01489

77.05

11172

68.31

29.04

22.41

22.86

HDFC Bank, Divi's Lab, SBI, Trent and


Cummins India

CPR 1

3 Star

Below
Average

Average

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

Return
Grade

Reliance Small Cap Fund (G)


INF204K01HY3

24.56

1579

103.51

39.82

22.41

LG Balakrishnan & Bros, TVS Motor


Co., Atul, Kalpataru& CCL Pro

CPR 2

5 Star

Average

High

ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund (G)


INF109K01AF8

114.49

8682

84.87

33.97

23.21

26.05

ICICI Bank, RIL, Sadbhav Engineering,


PI Ind & Amara Raja Bat

CPR 2

4 Star

Low

Above
Average

Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap


INF205K01DN2

35.88

389

86.97

36.10

26.23

21.04

DB Corporation, STFC, ING Vysya


Bank, Bharat Forge & Dish TV India

CPR 3

4 Star

Below
Average

High

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

Return
Grade

AXIS Long Term Equity Fund (G)


INF846K01131

30.82

4034

76.34

35.00

25.16

24.38

HDFC Bank Ltd, TCS, L&T, HDFC Ltd,


ITC Ltd

CPR 1

5 Star

Low

High

Reliance Tax Saver Fund - (G)


INF204K01GK4

49.64

4156

102.77

33.73

23.31

18.51

TVS Motor Co, SBI, Tata Steel, Wipro


& BHEL

CPR 1

5 Star

High

High

Scheme Name

Return
Grade
Above
Average

Equity - Diversified - Multi CAP


Scheme Name

High

Equity - Diversified - Mid n Small CAP


Scheme Name

Equity - Tax Planning


Scheme Name

RETAIL RESEARCH

Hybrid - Equity Oriented (Atleast 60% in equity)


NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

HDFC Balanced Fund (G)


INF179K01392

107.50

3284

51.84

22.77

19.03

17.85

SBI, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Aurobindo


Pharma& L&T

CPR 1

4 Star

ICICI Pru Balanced Fund - (G)


INF109K01480

93.20

1633

50.32

24.29

18.94

15.68

HDFC Bank, Motherson Sumi, City


Union Bank, Maruti Suzuki Ind & ICICI

CPR 1

5 Star

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Reliance Monthly Income Plan (G)


INF204K01FD1

33.37

2521

26.84

13.12

10.97

11.40

Eq: Sundaram-Clayton, Federal Mogul


Goetze, HDFC Bank. CP: PFC

CPR 2

4 Star

HDFC Monthly Income Plan - LTP (G)


INF179K01AE4

34.66

3818

27.25

12.90

10.95

11.77

Eq: SBI, Infy, ICICI Bank, L&T. Debt:


TATA Power, Hindalco Inds

CPR 2

Scheme Name

Risk
Grade
Below
Average

Return
Grade

Below
Average

Above
Average

Risk
Grade
Above
Average

Return
Grade
Above
Average

3 Star

Average

Average

Risk
Grade
Below
Average

Return
Grade
Above
Average

Below
Average

Above
Average

Risk
Grade
Below
Average

Return
Grade
Above
Average

High

Hybrid - Monthly Income Plan - Long Term (About 15% to 20% in equity)
Scheme Name

Liquid Funds
NAV (Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

2 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top Holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

27.35

14666

9.05

9.20

9.24

7.25

CP: National Bank Agr. Rur. Devp, CD:


National Bank Agr. Rur, Union Bank.

CPR 3

3 Star

3064.08

1134

8.96

9.20

9.19

7.34

CP: M&M Financial Services, Kotak


Mahindra Prime, PFC, CD: SIDBI 2014

CPR 3

4 Star

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

2 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top Holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan - Regular (G)


INF109K01746

260.58

11913

9.50

9.55

9.52

7.49

CD: NABARD, Canara Bk, T Bill, CP:


HDFC, Debt: TCFSL

CPR 1

4 Star

SBI Mag Income FRP - Savings Plus Bond (G)


INF200K01636

21.50

842

8.90

9.03

9.26

7.47

CD: HDFC, ICICI, IDBI. Debt: LIC Hou,


HDFC. CP: Sesaste

CPR 3

3 Star

Low

Average

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

2 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top Holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

24.00

985

10.83

9.95

10.28

7.27

FD: J&K Bank, D: 11.6% DHFL. 2015,


CD: Central Bank of India 2013,

CPR 3

3 Star

Average

Return
Grade
Above
Average

2847.73

10332

12.25

10.57

10.36

8.33

PTC: 11.85% Adani Enterprises. Debt:


Dewan Housing Fin

CPR 1

4 Star

Average

Scheme Name
HDFC Liquid Fund (G)
INF179K01KG8
SBI Magnum InstaCash - Cash Plan
INF200K01LJ4

Ultra Short Term Funds


Scheme Name

Short Term Income Funds


Scheme Name
Sundaram Select Debt - STAP (G)
INF903J01FG3
Franklin India Short Term Income (G)
INF090I01304

RETAIL RESEARCH

Above
Average

Income Funds
NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

2 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top Holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan (G)


INF209K01603

16.88

3683

12.27

11.32

11.20

9.24

Debenture: DLF, Tata Mot, IL&FS


Transport, RHC Holdings

CPR 3

4 Star

Low

ICICI Pru Long Term Plan - Retail (G)


INF109K01712

31.84

349

20.97

14.98

12.89

9.38

Bonds: EXIM Bk, 8.28% GOI 9-21, 8.4%


GOI 7-28 & Cash

5 Star

Low

High

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

2 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top Holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

Return
Grade

Tata Gilt Mid Term Fund (G)


INF277K01LH6

15.30

129

17.96

11.83

11.24

9.52

SDL: 8.94% Maharashtra, GOI: 8.28%


GOI 9-21

CPR 3

4 Star

Low

High

Sundaram Gilt Fund - (G)


INF903J01FA6

23.61

40

13.07

15.67

14.90

6.41

8.83% GOI 2023, 8.28% GOI 2027,


8.6% GOI 2028 & 8.15% GOI 2026

5 Star

Low

High

Scheme Name

Return
Grade
Above
Average

Gilt Funds
Scheme Name

Notes:

NAV value as on Mar 23, 2015. Portfolio data as on Feb2015.


Returns are trailing and annualized (CAGR).
The notations '5 Star & CPR 1' (used by VR & Crisil respectively) are considered as top in respective rating and ranking scales.
The performance of the funds are rated and classified by Value Research in the following ways. Top 10% funds in each category were classified ***** funds, the next 22.5% got a **** star,
while the middle 35% got a ***, while the next 22.5% and bottom 10% got ** and * respectively.
The criteria used in computing the CRISIL Composite Performance Rank are Superior Return Score, based on NAVs over the Quarter Ended Dec 14, Based on percentile of number of schemes
considered in the category, the schemes are ranked as follows: CPR 1- Very Good performance, CPR 2 - Good performance, CPR 3 - Average performance, CPR 4 - Below average and CPR 5 Relatively weak performance in the category.
Schemes shortlisted based on the corpus and age. Final picks arrived from return score (respective weightage given for rolling returns for 1m, 3m, 6m, 1yr, 2yr & 3yr) and risk score. Schemes
from Quantum, Mirae and JM Mutual Funds have not been considered.

NFO:
Scheme name

Tenure

Open Date

Close Date

Minimum Investments

AXIS Hybrid Fund - Series 22 (D)

1278 Days

HSBC CPO Fund - Sr.II - Plan III (D)

1162 Days

4/21/2015

5/5/2015

5000

4/16/2015

4/23/2015

5000

ICICI Pru Capital Protection Orient. VIII-B Reg(D)

1103 Days

4/6/2015

4/20/2015

5000

HDFC Focused Equity Fund - Plan B (D)

1100 Days

3/26/2015

4/24/2015

5000

HDFC Focused Equity Fund - Plan B - Direct (D)

1100 Days

3/26/2015

4/24/2015

5000

Balanced

Equity

RETAIL RESEARCH

DWS Large Cap Fund - Series 3 (D)

1281 Days

4/10/2015

4/20/2015

5000

Reliance Dual Advantage FTF - VII - Plan E (D)

1102 Days

4/15/2015

4/29/2015

5000

HDFC FMP - 1114Days-Apr 2015(1)(XXXIII) (D)

1114 Days

4/21/2015

4/28/2015

5000

UTI-Dual Advantage FTF Sr.I - V(1099Days)-Reg(D)

1099 Days

4/13/2015

4/27/2015

5000

Reliance Fixed Horizon - XXVIII - Sr.17 (D)

1125 Days

4/24/2015

4/27/2015

5000

Sundaram FTP - Plan GW (G)

1100 Days

4/21/2015

4/23/2015

5000

ICICI Pru FMP - Series 76 - 1135Days Plan Z-Reg(D)

1135 Days

4/15/2015

4/21/2015

5000

DSP BR Dual Advantage Fund - Sr.37 - 36Mth (D)

36 Months

4/6/2015

4/20/2015

5000

UTI-FTI - Series XXII - I(1099Days)-Reg (D)

1099 Days

4/10/2015

4/20/2015

5000

4/29/2015

5/13/2015

500

Fixed Maturity Plans

Income Funds
Quantum Dynamic Bond Fund (G)

Mutual Fund NEWS:


Dividend

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced 23 April 2015 as the record date for declaration of dividend
under the dividend options of following schemes. The recommended rate of dividend will be Rs 0.05 per
unit under each plan/option of each scheme on the face value of Rs 10 per unit.
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced that the following schemes shall be managed by George
Heber Joseph, in addition to the existing fund managers managing the schemes, with immediate effect, as
given below. ICICI Prudential Tax Plan: Chintan Haria and George Heber Joseph, ICICI Prudential Growth
Fund - Series 8: Chintan Haria and George Heber Joseph, ICICI Prudential Child Care Plan - Gift Plan:
Equity- Chintan Haria and George Heber Joseph , Debt- Manish Banthia
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has announced that Satyabatra Mohanty shall be the designated fund
manager for Birla Sun Life Emerging Leaders Fund Series 6, with effect from 20 April 2015.
Reliance Mutual Fund has announced change in exit load structure under Reliance Index Fund Nifty
Plan, with effect from 15 April 2015. If redeemed or switched out on or before completion of 7 days from
the date of allotment of units, the exit load will be 0.25%. If redeemed or switched out after completion
of 7 days from the date of allotment of units, the exit load will be Nil.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Scheme Name

Record Date

LIC NOMURA MF Balanced Fund - (D)

4/23/2015

UTI-Opportunities Fund (D)


Birla Sun Life MNC Fund - A (D)

Gross (%)

Date

5.00

4/24/2015

4/23/2015

15.00

4/24/2015

4/22/2015

100.00

4/23/2015

JM Arbitrage Advantage Fund (D)

4/22/2015

0.70

4/23/2015

Edelweiss Short Term Income Fund (D)

4/22/2015

2.00

4/23/2015

ICICI Pru Savings Fund - Regular (Div-W)

4/13/2015

0.15

4/23/2015

Edelweiss Absolute Return Fund (D)

4/22/2015

2.20

4/23/2015

Edelweiss Arbitrage Fund - Regular (D)

4/22/2015

0.50

4/23/2015

Global Updates:

(Source: AMC Newsletters)

India:

Easing food prices in India pulled down retail inflation in March to a 3-month low of 5.17 per cent despite unseasonal rains, renewing industry clamour for further cut in RBI policy rate to
boost growth. Retail inflation as measured by Consumer Price Index was 5.37 per cent in February, and 5.19 per cent in January. It was 8.25 per cent in March last year.
Deflation persisted for the fifth consecutive month as Indias wholesale price index based inflation fell to a record low of (-) 2.33 per cent in March on account of cheaper food and fuel
products as well as manufactured items. Inflation measured on wholesale price index (WPI) was at (-) 2.06 per cent in February, (-) 0.39 per cent in January, (-) 0.50 per cent in December and () 0.17 per cent in November. It was 6 per cent in March 2014.
Indian economy is expected to grow marginally higher at 7.3 per cent during the year compared with 7.2 per cent in 2014 and interest rate cuts will buttress private sector spending, said a
group company of global rating agency Moody's.
India's merchandise trade deficit numbers rose for the first time in 4 months, with March 2015 recording USD 11.8 bn deficit (Feb 2015: USD 6.8 bn, March 2014: USD 11 bn). Imports were
down ~13% YoY to USD 35.7 bn, while exports also were down ~21% YoY to USD 24 bn. The month-on-month deterioration in trade balance was driven by higher crude oil and gold imports.
Excluding crude oil and gold imports, core imports remained strong at 10% YoY growth for March, compared to 9% YoY in February. This might be a sign of recovery in domestic consumption.
But core exports (excluding crude oil exports) contracted for the third straight month - signalling weak recovery in demand from key export markets like Europe and the US.

Asia:

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China rose 2.2 percent on the year in March, while outbound flows posted a milder rise, as foreign corporate investors remain undeterred by China's
weakening domestic economic performance. Data showed inbound FDI up 11.3 percent to $34.88 billion for the first quarter.
Chinas economy expanded at its slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, held back by a slowdown in construction and manufacturing as the government seeks to re-engineer the
countrys growth model. Chinas gross domestic product grew 7 per cent in the first three months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier the weakest quarterly expansion
since the depths of the global financial crisis in early 2009. Chinas economy grew 7.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2014.
Chinas Industrial production slowed to a 6-year low of 5.6% and 6.4% YTD, with key component of power generation falling 3.7% y/y.
China's exports surprisingly tumbled in March, setting a poor precursor to the closely-watched first quarter growth figures due on Wednesday. Exports tumbled 14.6 percent from the year-ago
period, which cited weak global demand and the impact of the lunar new year as factors behind the decline. Imports meanwhile slid 12.3 percent, a tad worse than the expected 11.7 percent
fall and after diving 20.5 percent in the month before. The trade surplus for the month totaled $3.08 billion as a result, short of the $43.8 billion forecast.
Industrial production in Japan fell last month. In a report, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said that industrial production fell to a seasonally adjusted -3.1%, from -3.4% in the
preceding month.
Japan's core machinery orders fell for a second straight month in February in a sign that business investment remains soft, and analysts say the smaller-than-expected decline won't
necessarily allow policymakers to relax given an uncertain economic outlook. The 0.4 percent monthly fall in core machinery orders, a highly volatile data series, came as a recent run of weak
indicators raised doubts about a sustainable economic rebound following a recession last year.

US:

US Core producer prices rose at an annualized rate of 0.9% in March, in line with expectations and down from 1.0% in the preceding month. Core prices are viewed by the Federal Reserve as a
better gauge of longer-term inflationary pressure because they exclude the volatile food and energy categories
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but the underlying trend continued to point to a strengthening labor market. Initial claims for
state unemployment benefits rose 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 294,000 for the week ended April 11.
Consumer confidence cooled last week from an almost eight-year high as Americans took a less favorable view of their finances and the economy amid smaller gains in hiring. The Bloomberg
Consumer Comfort Index fell to 46.6 in the period ended April 12, from the prior weeks 47.9 reading that was the strongest since May 2007. The economic expectations gauge for April
declined for a second month
National chain-store sales edged up 0.2% in the first week of April from the comparable period in March, according to Redbook Research. The index's increase compared with a target for
growth of 0.8%. The Johnson Redbook Sales Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales for the period improved 1.1% from a year earlier, compared with revised target for an increase of
1.7%.

RETAIL RESEARCH

The preliminary reading on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan came in at 95.9, topping expectations for a reading of 94.0. The report also showed that consumers'
assessment of economic conditions and expectations for future conditions rose from March.
U.S. industrial output posted its biggest drop in more than 2-1/2 years in March in part as oil and gas well drilling plummeted, highlighting the negative impact of lower crude prices and a
strong dollar on the economy. Industrial production fell 0.6 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in February. March's decline was the largest since August 2012 and was worse than economists'
expectations for only a 0.3 percent drop.

UK:

European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.05%).
Euro zone CPI remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.1%, from -0.1% in the preceding month.
In February 2015 compared with January 2015, seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 1.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.9% in the EU28. In January 2015 industrial production
fell by 0.3% in both zones. In February 2015 compared with February 2014, industrial production increased by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU28.
German consumer price inflation rose last month. In a report, Federal Statistical Office Germany said that German CPI rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.5%, from 0.5% in the preceding month.
British house prices grew at their fastest pace in five months in March, fuelled by a shortage of properties, adding to other signs that a cooling of the market may be ending. The Royal
Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS) monthly house price balance rose to +21 in March, above all forecasts in a Reuters poll, from +15 in February.
Core consumer price inflation in the U.K. fell unexpectedly last month. In a report, National Statistics said that U.K. core CPI fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0%, from 1.2% in the
prior month.
Consumer prices across the European Union fell for the fourth straight month in March, but at a slower rate, a sign that the threat of a slide into deflation is easing as central banks launched
new stimulus measures and energy prices steady. Consumer prices in the 28-nation bloc fell 0.1 per cent in March from a year earlier.
The euro area current account surplus declined in February largely due to a decrease in primary income. The current account surplus dropped to a seasonally adjusted EUR 26.4 billion from
EUR 30.4 billion in January. Meanwhile, on an unadjusted basis, the surplus rose to EUR 13.8 billion from EUR 8.3 billion in January.

Economic Calendar:
Date

Country

Event

Period

Frequency

Unit

20-04-2015

Germany

PPI (Month over Month)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

Percent

0.1

20-04-2015

Germany

PPI (Year over Year)

Mar, 2015

Yearly

Percent

-2.1

21-04-2015

Germany

ZEW Survey

Apr, 2015

Monthly

24-04-2015

Germany

Ifo Survey

Apr, 2015

Monthly

20-04-2015

India

CPI - Agricultural Labourers(YoY Chg)

Mar

Monthly

pct

6.08

20-04-2015

India

CPI - Rural Labourers (YoY Chg)

Mar

Monthly

pct

6.19

20-04-2015

India

Output of Crude oil

Mar

Monthly

mln tn

2.88

20-04-2015

India

Output of Refinery

Mar

Monthly

mln tn

17.59

20-04-2015

India

Output of Natural gas

Mar

Monthly

bln cu m

21-04-2015

India

GSM mobile subscriber

Mar

Monthly

Million

22-04-2015

India

91 day T- Bills auction of Rs 80 bln (cut-off yld)

Weekly

pct

22-04-2015

India

Reserve Money (change on year)

Weekly

pct

22-04-2015

India

182 day T-Bills auction of Rs 60 bln (cut-off yld)

Fortnightly

pct

7.88

24-04-2015

India

WMA (ways and means advance) - to central govt

Wk to Apr 17

Weekly

Rs bln

24-04-2015

India

FX reserve (change on wk)

Wk to Apr 17

Weekly

$ mln

-2592.8

29-04-2015

India

91 day T- Bills auction of Rs 80 bln (cut-off yld)

Weekly

pct

RETAIL RESEARCH

Wk to Apr 17

Previous

0
0

2.53
697.01
7.85

29-04-2015

India

364 day T- Bills auction of Rs 60 bln (cut-off yld)

22-04-2015

Japan

Merchandise Trade

Mar, 2014

Monthly

22-04-2015

Japan

Merchandise Trade (Level)

Mar, 2014

Monthly

Billion

22-04-2015

Japan

Merchandise Trade (Imports-Y/Y)

Mar, 2014

Yearly

Percent

-3.6

22-04-2015

Japan

Merchandise Trade (Exports-Y/Y)

Mar, 2014

Yearly

Percent

2.4

23-04-2015

Japan

All Industry Index (Month over Month)

Feb, 2015

Monthly

Percent

1.9

23-04-2015

Japan

All Industry Index (Year over Year)

Feb, 2015

Yearly

Percent

-1.2

28-04-2015

Japan

Retail Sales (Year over Year)

Mar, 2015

Yearly

Percent

-1.8

22-04-2015

UK

BoE MPC Minutes

Apr, 2015

Monthly

23-04-2015

UK

Retail Sales (Month over Month)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

Percent

0.7

23-04-2015

UK

Retail Sales (Year over Year)

Mar, 2015

Yearly

Percent

5.7

28-04-2015

UK

GDP (Quarter over Quarter)

Q1, 2015

Quarterly

Percent

0.6

28-04-2015

UK

GDP (Year over Year)

Q1, 2015

Yearly

Percent

21-04-2015

US

Redbook (Store Sales Y/Y change)

wk4/18, 2015

Yearly

Percent

1.1

22-04-2015

US

MBA Mortgage Applications (Composite Index - W/W Change)

wk4/17, 2015

Weekly

Percent

-2.3

22-04-2015

US

MBA Mortgage Applications (Purchase Index - W/W Change)

wk4/17, 2015

Weekly

Percent

-3

22-04-2015

US

MBA Mortgage Applications (Refinance Index - W/W Change)

wk4/17, 2015

Weekly

Percent

-2

22-04-2015

US

FHFA House Price Index (M/M change)

Feb, 2015

Monthly

Percent

0.3

22-04-2015

US

FHFA House Price Index (Y/Y change)

Feb, 2015

Yearly

Percent

5.1

22-04-2015

US

Existing Home Sales (Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

Million

4.88

22-04-2015

US

Existing Home Sales (Existing Home Sales - M/M Change)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

Percent

1.2

22-04-2015

US

Existing Home Sales (Existing Home Sales - Yr/Yr Change)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

Percent

4.7

22-04-2015

US

EIA Petroleum Status Report (Distillates (weekly change))

wk4/17, 2015

Weekly

M barrels

23-04-2015

US

Jobless Claims (New Claims - Level)

wk4/18, 2015

Weekly

294

23-04-2015

US

Jobless Claims (4-week Moving Average - Level)

wk4/18, 2015

Weekly

282.75

23-04-2015

US

Jobless Claims (New Claims - Change)

wk4/18, 2015

Weekly

12

23-04-2015

US

New Home Sales (New Home Sales - Level - SAAR)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

539

23-04-2015

US

EIA Natural Gas Report (Weekly Change)

wk4/17, 2015

Weekly

bcf

24-04-2015

US

Money Supply (M2 Weekly Change)

wk4/13, 2015

Weekly

Billion

78.9

24-04-2015

US

Fed Balance Sheet (Reserve Bank credit - Weekly Change)

wk4/22, 2015

Weekly

Billion

4.4

24-04-2015

US

Fed Balance Sheet (Total Assets - Weekly Change)

wk4/22, 2015

Weekly

Billion

24-04-2015

US

Durable Goods Orders (New Orders - M/M change)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

Percent

-1.4

24-04-2015

US

Durable Goods Orders (Ex-transportation - M/M)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

Percent

-0.4

24-04-2015

US

Durable Goods Orders (New Orders - Yr/Yr Change)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

Percent

0.6

24-04-2015

US

Durable Goods Orders (Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

Percent

2.3

28-04-2015

US

S&P Case-Shiller HPI (20-city, SA - M/M)

Feb, 2015

Monthly

Percent

0.9

28-04-2015

US

S&P Case-Shiller HPI (20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr)

Feb, 2015

Monthly

Percent

4.6

28-04-2015

US

S&P Case-Shiller HPI (20-city, NSA - M/M)

Feb, 2015

Monthly

Percent

RETAIL RESEARCH

Fortnightly

pct

7.88
0
-424.6

63

1.9

Economy Updates
US Dollar Vs Indian Rupee

The US dollar depreciated against the rupee by 0.04% for the week ended 17th April,
2015. The rupee strengthened against the dollar as the US currency weakened overseas
following lower-than expected retail sales data.

Relationship among policy rates and benchmarks:

The RBI maintained the rates at its latest meet.

WPI Inflation (YoY)


Deposit vs. Advance Growth (YoY)%

Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), fell to a steep -2.06 percent,
marking the fourth straight month of deflating prices, which is, year-on-year inflation fell
to the lowest level since it has been tracked in the current 2005 series. The February
contraction was led by a month-on-month decline in all three broad groups that make up
the index.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Outstanding credit of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) increased by Rs.404.13 billion


to Rs.65.6 trillion during the fortnight ended 20 March 2015. This was on the back of a
rise in non-food credit. On a y-o-y basis, growth in outstanding credit fell sharply to 9.5
per cent from 10.2 per cent a fortnight ago. Outstanding deposits of SCBs increased by
Rs.315.9 billion to Rs.85.8 trillion during the fortnight. On a y-o-y basis, growth in
outstanding deposits slowed down to 11.4 per cent as on 20 March 2015 from 11.6 per
cent a fortnight ago.

Money Stock (M3) (YoY) (%)

Corporate Bonds Spread Vs Gilt Securities:

Money Supply M3 in India increased to 105321.20 INR Billion in March of 2015 from
104155.85 INR Billion in February of 2015. Fortnightly data ended March 20, 2015 shows
India M3 Money Supply dipped from previous 11.3% to 11.1% (YoY).

Corporate bond yields fell last week. The one year and 2 year AAA credit spreads fell by
13 and 1 basis points each.

Foreign Exchange Reserves (mn of USD)

Liquidity support from RBI (Bn. Rs)

India's foreign exchange reserves increased by $1.63bn to $343.0bn for the week ended
April 03.

RETAIL RESEARCH

The net infusion from the LAF window was a daily average of Rs.13,706 crore for last
week (Rs. 3,326 crore in previous week). Infusions via the MSF route averaged Rs. 1,233
cr. The inter-bank call rates traded around 7.41% levels on Friday. The CBLO rates were
positioned at 7.19% level.

MFs net investment in Debt (RsCrs):


Certificates of Deposit (%):

11.8

3 Mon
6 Mon
1 Yr

10.8
9.8
8.8

In January, the MF have bought debt worth Rs. 33,124 crore while in Feb, they have
bought debt worth Rs. 60,749 crore. In Mar, they bought Rs. 75,393 crore.
FIIs net investment in Debt (RsCrs):

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

7.8

CD rates are trending marginally lower in the recent periods. The CD rates hovered around
8.25% levels (as per the latest data) (one year CD).
Commercial Paper (%):

13
12

3 Mon
6 Mon
1 Yr

11
10
9

In January, FII bought debt worth Rs. 23,068 crore while in Feb, they have bought debt
worth Rs. 13,422 crore. In Mar, they bought Rs. 5,949 crore.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Rates of Commercial papers are seen trading higher in the recent periods. The CP rates are
hovering around 8.90% levels (one year maturity CP).

RETAIL RESEARCH Tel: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Corporate Office
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email:
[email protected]
Disclaimer: Mutual Funds and Debt investments are subject to risk. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance This document has been prepared by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be
reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied
upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document. This report is intended for nonInstitutional Clients
This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams
(Institutional, PCG) of HDFC Securities Ltd.

RETAIL RESEARCH

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