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1. Introduction to
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INTRODUCTION
TO SIMULATION

Man is a tool using animal. . . . Without tools he is nothing, with tools he

is all.
Thomas Carlyle

1.1 Introduction
On March 19, 1999, the following story appeared in The Wall Street Journal:
Captain Chet Rivers knew that his 747-400 was loaded to the limit. The giant plane,
weighing almost 450,000 pounds by itself, was carrying a full load of passengers and
baggage, plus 400,000 pounds of fuel for the long ight from San Francisco to
Australia. As he revved his four engines for takeoff, Capt. Rivers noticed that San
Franciscos famous fog was creeping in, obscuring the hills to the north and west of
the airport.
At full throttle the plane began to roll ponderously down the runway, slowly at rst
but building up to ight speed well within normal limits. Capt. Rivers pulled the throttle back and the airplane took to the air, heading northwest across the San Francisco
peninsula towards the ocean. It looked like the start of another routine ight. Suddenly
the plane began to shudder violently. Several loud explosions shook the craft and
smoke and ames, easily visible in the midnight sky, illuminated the right wing.
Although the plane was shaking so violently that it was hard to read the instruments,
Capt. Rivers was able to tell that the right inboard engine was malfunctioning, backring violently. He immediately shut down the engine, stopping the explosions and
shaking.
However this introduced a new problem. With two engines on the left wing at full
power and only one on the right, the plane was pushed into a right turn, bringing it
directly towards San Bruno Mountain, located a few miles northwest of the airport.
Capt. Rivers instinctively turned his control wheel to the left to bring the plane back
on course. That action extended the aileronscontrol surfaces on the trailing edges
of the wingsto tilt the plane back to the left. However, it also extended the

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spoilerspanels on the tops of the wingsincreasing drag and lowering lift. With
the nose still pointed up, the heavy jet began to slow. As the plane neared stall speed,
the control stick began to shake to warn the pilot to bring the nose down to gain air
speed. Capt. Rivers immediately did so, removing that danger, but now San Bruno
Mountain was directly ahead. Capt. Rivers was unable to see the mountain due to the
thick fog that had rolled in, but the planes ground proximity sensor sounded an automatic warning, calling terrain, terrain, pull up, pull up. Rivers frantically pulled
back on the stick to clear the peak, but with the spoilers up and the plane still in a
skidding right turn, it was too late. The plane and its full load of 100 tons of fuel
crashed with a sickening explosion into the hillside just above a densely populated
housing area.
Hey Chet, that could ruin your whole day, said Capt. Riverss supervisor, who
was sitting beside him watching the whole thing. Lets rewind the tape and see what
you did wrong. Sure Mel, replied Chet as the two men stood up and stepped outside the 747 cockpit simulator. I think I know my mistake already. I should have used
my rudder, not my wheel, to bring the plane back on course. Say, I need a breather
after that experience. Im just glad that this wasnt the real thing.
The incident above was never reported in the nations newspapers, even though
it would have been one of the most tragic disasters in aviation history, because it
never really happened. It took place in a cockpit simulator, a device which uses computer technology to predict and recreate an airplanes behavior with gut-wrenching
realism.

The relief you undoubtedly felt to discover that this disastrous incident was
just a simulation gives you a sense of the impact that simulation can have in averting real-world catastrophes. This story illustrates just one of the many ways simulation is being used to help minimize the risk of making costly and sometimes
fatal mistakes in real life. Simulation technology is nding its way into an increasing number of applications ranging from training for aircraft pilots to the
testing of new product prototypes. The one thing that these applications have in
common is that they all provide a virtual environment that helps prepare for reallife situations, resulting in signicant savings in time, money, and even lives.
One area where simulation is nding increased application is in manufacturing and service system design and improvement. Its unique ability to accurately
predict the performance of complex systems makes it ideally suited for systems
planning. Just as a ight simulator reduces the risk of making costly errors in actual ight, system simulation reduces the risk of having systems that operate inefciently or that fail to meet minimum performance requirements. While this may
not be life-threatening to an individual, it certainly places a company (not to mention careers) in jeopardy.
In this chapter we introduce the topic of simulation and answer the following
questions:

What is simulation?
Why is simulation used?
How is simulation performed?
When and where should simulation be used?

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Introduction to Simulation

What are the qualications for doing simulation?

How is simulation economically justied?
The purpose of this chapter is to create an awareness of how simulation is
used to visualize, analyze, and improve the performance of manufacturing and
service systems.

1.2 What Is Simulation?

The Oxford American Dictionary (1980) denes simulation as a way to reproduce the conditions of a situation, as by means of a model, for study or testing or
training, etc. For our purposes, we are interested in reproducing the operational
behavior of dynamic systems. The model that we will be using is a computer
model. Simulation in this context can be dened as the imitation of a dynamic system using a computer model in order to evaluate and improve system performance. According to Schriber (1987), simulation is the modeling of a process or
system in such a way that the model mimics the response of the actual system to
events that take place over time. By studying the behavior of the model, we can
gain insights about the behavior of the actual system.

Simulation is the imitation of a dynamic system

using a computer model in order to evaluate and
improve system performance.

In practice, simulation is usually performed using commercial simulation

software like ProModel that has modeling constructs specically designed for
capturing the dynamic behavior of systems. Performance statistics are gathered
during the simulation and automatically summarized for analysis. Modern simulation software provides a realistic, graphical animation of the system being modeled (see Figure 1.1). During the simulation, the user can interactively adjust the
animation speed and change model parameter values to do what if analysis
on the y. State-of-the-art simulation technology even provides optimization
capabilitynot that simulation itself optimizes, but scenarios that satisfy dened
feasibility constraints can be automatically run and analyzed using special goalseeking algorithms.
This book focuses primarily on discrete-event simulation, which models the
effects of the events in a system as they occur over time. Discrete-event simulation employs statistical methods for generating random behavior and estimating

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FIGURE 1.1
Simulation provides animation capability.

model performance. These methods are sometimes referred to as Monte Carlo

methods because of their similarity to the probabilistic outcomes found in games
of chance, and because Monte Carlo, a tourist resort in Monaco, was such a
popular center for gambling.

1.3 Why Simulate?

Rather than leave design decisions to chance, simulation provides a way to validate
whether or not the best decisions are being made. Simulation avoids the expensive,
time-consuming, and disruptive nature of traditional trial-and-error techniques.

Trial-and-error approaches are

expensive, time consuming, and disruptive.

With the emphasis today on time-based competition, traditional trial-and-error

methods of decision making are no longer adequate. Regarding the shortcoming of

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Introduction to Simulation

trial-and-error approaches in designing manufacturing systems, Solberg (1988)

notes,
The ability to apply trial-and-error learning to tune the performance of manufacturing
systems becomes almost useless in an environment in which changes occur faster than
the lessons can be learned. There is now a greater need for formal predictive methodology based on understanding of cause and effect.

The power of simulation lies in the fact that it provides a method of analysis
that is not only formal and predictive, but is capable of accurately predicting the
performance of even the most complex systems. Deming (1989) states, Management of a system is action based on prediction. Rational prediction requires systematic learning and comparisons of predictions of short-term and long-term
results from possible alternative courses of action. The key to sound management decisions lies in the ability to accurately predict the outcomes of alternative
courses of action. Simulation provides precisely that kind of foresight. By simulating alternative production schedules, operating policies, stafng levels, job
priorities, decision rules, and the like, a manager can more accurately predict outcomes and therefore make more informed and effective management decisions.
With the importance in todays competitive market of getting it right the rst
time, the lesson is becoming clear: if at rst you dont succeed, you probably
should have simulated it.
By using a computer to model a system before it is built or to test operating
policies before they are actually implemented, many of the pitfalls that are often
encountered in the start-up of a new system or the modication of an existing system can be avoided. Improvements that traditionally took months and even years
of ne-tuning to achieve can be attained in a matter of days or even hours. Because simulation runs in compressed time, weeks of system operation can be simulated in only a few minutes or even seconds. The characteristics of simulation
that make it such a powerful planning and decision-making tool can be summarized as follows:

Captures system interdependencies.

Accounts for variability in the system.
Is versatile enough to model any system.
Shows behavior over time.
Is less costly, time consuming, and disruptive than experimenting on the
actual system.
Provides information on multiple performance measures.
Is visually appealing and engages peoples interest.
Provides results that are easy to understand and communicate.
Runs in compressed, real, or even delayed time.
Forces attention to detail in a design.

Because simulation accounts for interdependencies and variation, it provides

insights into the complex dynamics of a system that cannot be obtained using

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other analysis techniques. Simulation gives systems planners unlimited freedom

to try out different ideas for improvement, risk freewith virtually no cost, no
waste of time, and no disruption to the current system. Furthermore, the results are
both visual and quantitative with performance statistics automatically reported on
all measures of interest.
Even if no problems are found when analyzing the output of simulation, the
exercise of developing a model is, in itself, benecial in that it forces one to think
through the operational details of the process. Simulation can work with inaccurate information, but it cant work with incomplete information. Often solutions
present themselves as the model is builtbefore any simulation run is made. It is
a human tendency to ignore the operational details of a design or plan until the
implementation phase, when it is too late for decisions to have a signicant
impact. As the philosopher Alfred North Whitehead observed, We think in generalities; we live detail (Audon 1964). System planners often gloss over the
details of how a system will operate and then get tripped up during implementation by all of the loose ends. The expression the devil is in the details has denite
application to systems planning. Simulation forces decisions on critical details so
they are not left to chance or to the last minute, when it may be too late.
Simulation promotes a try-it-and-see attitude that stimulates innovation and
encourages thinking outside the box. It helps one get into the system with sticks
and beat the bushes to ush out problems and nd solutions. It also puts an end to
fruitless debates over what solution will work best and by how much. Simulation
takes the emotion out of the decision-making process by providing objective
evidence that is difcult to refute.

1.4 Doing Simulation

Simulation is nearly always performed as part of a larger process of system design
or process improvement. A design problem presents itself or a need for improvement exists. Alternative solutions are generated and evaluated, and the best
solution is selected and implemented. Simulation comes into play during the evaluation phase. First, a model is developed for an alternative solution. As the model
is run, it is put into operation for the period of interest. Performance statistics (utilization, processing time, and so on) are gathered and reported at the end of the
run. Usually several replications (independent runs) of the simulation are made.
Averages and variances across the replications are calculated to provide statistical
estimates of model performance. Through an iterative process of modeling, simulation, and analysis, alternative congurations and operating policies can be tested
to determine which solution works the best.
Simulation is essentially an experimentation tool in which a computer model
of a new or existing system is created for the purpose of conducting experiments.
The model acts as a surrogate for the actual or real-world system. Knowledge
gained from experimenting on the model can be transferred to the real system (see
Figure 1.2). When we speak of doing simulation, we are talking about the

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FIGURE 1.2

System

Simulation provides a
virtual method for
doing system
experimentation.
Concept

Model

process of designing a model of a real system and conducting experiments with

this model (Shannon 1998). Conducting experiments on a model reduces the
time, cost, and disruption of experimenting on the actual system. In this respect,
simulation can be thought of as a virtual prototyping tool for demonstrating proof
of concept.
The procedure for doing simulation follows the scientic method of (1) formulating a hypothesis, (2) setting up an experiment, (3) testing the hypothesis
through experimentation, and (4) drawing conclusions about the validity of the
hypothesis. In simulation, we formulate a hypothesis about what design or
operating policies work best. We then set up an experiment in the form of a
simulation model to test the hypothesis. With the model, we conduct multiple
replications of the experiment or simulation. Finally, we analyze the simulation
results and draw conclusions about our hypothesis. If our hypothesis was correct, we can condently move ahead in making the design or operational
changes (assuming time and other implementation constraints are satised).
As shown in Figure 1.3, this process is repeated until we are satised with the
results.
By now it should be obvious that simulation itself is not a solution tool but
rather an evaluation tool. It describes how a dened system will behave; it does
not prescribe how it should be designed. Simulation doesnt compensate for ones
ignorance of how a system is supposed to operate. Neither does it excuse one from
being careful and responsible in the handling of input data and the interpretation
of output results. Rather than being perceived as a substitute for thinking, simulation should be viewed as an extension of the mind that enables one to understand
the complex dynamics of a system.

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FIGURE 1.3
The process of
simulation
experimentation.

Start

Formulate a
hypothesis

Develop a
simulation model
No
Run simulation
experiment

Hypothesis
correct?
Yes
End

1.5 Use of Simulation

Simulation began to be used in commercial applications in the 1960s. Initial
models were usually programmed in FORTRAN and often consisted of thousands
of lines of code. Not only was model building an arduous task, but extensive debugging was required before models ran correctly. Models frequently took a year
or more to build and debug so that, unfortunately, useful results were not obtained
until after a decision and monetary commitment had already been made. Lengthy
simulations were run in batch mode on expensive mainframe computers where
CPU time was at a premium. Long development cycles prohibited major changes
from being made once a model was built.
Only in the last couple of decades has simulation gained popularity as a
decision-making tool in manufacturing and service industries. For many companies, simulation has become a standard practice when a new facility is being
planned or a process change is being evaluated. It is fast becoming to systems
planners what spreadsheet software has become to nancial planners.

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The surge in popularity of computer simulation can be attributed to the

following:

Increased awareness and understanding of simulation technology.

Increased availability, capability, and ease of use of simulation software.
Increased computer memory and processing speeds, especially of PCs.
Declining computer hardware and software costs.

Simulation is no longer considered a method of last resort, nor is it a technique reserved only for simulation experts. The availability of easy-to-use simulation software and the ubiquity of powerful desktop computers have made
simulation not only more accessible, but also more appealing to planners and
managers who tend to avoid any kind of solution that appears too complicated. A
solution tool is not of much use if it is more complicated than the problem that it
is intended to solve. With simple data entry tables and automatic output reporting
and graphing, simulation is becoming much easier to use and the reluctance to use
it is disappearing.
The primary use of simulation continues to be in the area of manufacturing.
Manufacturing systems, which include warehousing and distribution systems,
tend to have clearly dened relationships and formalized procedures that are well
suited to simulation modeling. They are also the systems that stand to benet the
most from such an analysis tool since capital investments are so high and changes
are so disruptive. Recent trends to standardize and systematize other business
processes such as order processing, invoicing, and customer support are boosting
the application of simulation in these areas as well. It has been observed that
80 percent of all business processes are repetitive and can benet from the same
analysis techniques used to improve manufacturing systems (Harrington 1991).
With this being the case, the use of simulation in designing and improving business processes of every kind will likely continue to grow.
While the primary use of simulation is in decision support, it is by no means
limited to applications requiring a decision. An increasing use of simulation is in
the area of communication and visualization. Modern simulation software incorporates visual animation that stimulates interest in the model and effectively
communicates complex system dynamics. A proposal for a new system design can
be sold much easier if it can actually be shown how it will operate.
On a smaller scale, simulation is being used to provide interactive, computerbased training in which a management trainee is given the opportunity to practice
decision-making skills by interacting with the model during the simulation. It is
also being used in real-time control applications where the model interacts with
the real system to monitor progress and provide master control. The power of
simulation to capture system dynamics both visually and functionally opens up
numerous opportunities for its use in an integrated environment.
Since the primary use of simulation is in decision support, most of our discussion will focus on the use of simulation to make system design and operational
decisions. As a decision support tool, simulation has been used to help plan and

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make improvements in many areas of both manufacturing and service industries.

Typical applications of simulation include

Work-ow planning.
Capacity planning.
Cycle time reduction.
Staff and resource planning.
Work prioritization.
Bottleneck analysis.
Quality improvement.
Cost reduction.
Inventory reduction.

Throughput analysis.
Productivity improvement.
Layout analysis.
Line balancing.
Batch size optimization.
Production scheduling.
Resource scheduling.
Maintenance scheduling.
Control system design.

1.6 When Simulation Is Appropriate

Not all system problems that could be solved with the aid of simulation should be
solved using simulation. It is important to select the right tool for the task. For
some problems, simulation may be overkilllike using a shotgun to kill a y.
Simulation has certain limitations of which one should be aware before making a
decision to apply it to a given situation. It is not a panacea for all system-related
problems and should be used only if the shoe ts. As a general guideline,
simulation is appropriate if the following criteria hold true:

An operational (logical or quantitative) decision is being made.

The process being analyzed is well dened and repetitive.
Activities and events are interdependent and variable.
The cost impact of the decision is greater than the cost of doing the
simulation.
The cost to experiment on the actual system is greater than the cost of
simulation.

Decisions should be of an operational nature. Perhaps the most signicant

limitation of simulation is its restriction to the operational issues associated with
systems planning in which a logical or quantitative solution is being sought. It is
not very useful in solving qualitative problems such as those involving technical
or sociological issues. For example, it cant tell you how to improve machine reliability or how to motivate workers to do a better job (although it can assess the
impact that a given level of reliability or personal performance can have on overall system performance). Qualitative issues such as these are better addressed
using other engineering and behavioral science techniques.
Processes should be well dened and repetitive. Simulation is useful only if
the process being modeled is well structured and repetitive. If the process doesnt
follow a logical sequence and adhere to dened rules, it may be difcult to model.
Simulation applies only if you can describe how the process operates. This does

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not mean that there can be no uncertainty in the system. If random behavior can
be described using probability expressions and distributions, they can be simulated. It is only when it isnt even possible to make reasonable assumptions of
how a system operates (because either no information is available or behavior is
totally erratic) that simulation (or any other analysis tool for that matter) becomes
useless. Likewise, one-time projects or processes that are never repeated the same
way twice are poor candidates for simulation. If the scenario you are modeling is
likely never going to happen again, it is of little benet to do a simulation.
Activities and events should be interdependent and variable. A system may
have lots of activities, but if they never interfere with each other or are deterministic (that is, they have no variation), then using simulation is probably unnecessary. It isnt the number of activities that makes a system difcult to analyze.
It is the number of interdependent, random activities. The effect of simple interdependencies is easy to predict if there is no variability in the activities. Determining
the ow rate for a system consisting of 10 processing activities is very straightforward if all activity times are constant and activities are never interrupted. Likewise,
random activities that operate independently of each other are usually easy to analyze. For example, 10 machines operating in isolation from each other can be expected to produce at a rate that is based on the average cycle time of each machine
less any anticipated downtime. It is the combination of interdependencies and random behavior that really produces the unpredictable results. Simpler analytical
methods such as mathematical calculations and spreadsheet software become less
adequate as the number of activities that are both interdependent and random increases. For this reason, simulation is primarily suited to systems involving both
interdependencies and variability.
The cost impact of the decision should be greater than the cost of doing the
simulation. Sometimes the impact of the decision itself is so insignicant that it
doesnt warrant the time and effort to conduct a simulation. Suppose, for example,
you are trying to decide whether a worker should repair rejects as they occur or
wait until four or ve accumulate before making repairs. If you are certain that the
next downstream activity is relatively insensitive to whether repairs are done
sooner rather than later, the decision becomes inconsequential and simulation is a
wasted effort.
The cost to experiment on the actual system should be greater than the cost of
simulation. While simulation avoids the time delay and cost associated with experimenting on the real system, in some situations it may actually be quicker and
more economical to experiment on the real system. For example, the decision in a
customer mailing process of whether to seal envelopes before or after they are
addressed can easily be made by simply trying each method and comparing the
results. The rule of thumb here is that if a question can be answered through direct
experimentation quickly, inexpensively, and with minimal impact to the current
operation, then dont use simulation. Experimenting on the actual system also
eliminates some of the drawbacks associated with simulation, such as proving
model validity.
There may be other situations where simulation is appropriate independent of
the criteria just listed (see Banks and Gibson 1997). This is certainly true in the

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case of models built purely for visualization purposes. If you are trying to sell a
system design or simply communicate how a system works, a realistic animation
created using simulation can be very useful, even though nonbenecial from an
analysis point of view.

1.7 Qualications for Doing Simulation

Many individuals are reluctant to use simulation because they feel unqualied.
Certainly some training is required to use simulation, but it doesnt mean that only
statisticians or operations research specialists can learn how to use it. Decision
support tools are always more effective when they involve the decision maker, especially when the decision maker is also the domain expert or person who is most
familiar with the design and operation of the system. The process owner or manager, for example, is usually intimately familiar with the intricacies and idiosyncrasies of the system and is in the best position to know what elements to include
in the model and be able to recommend alternative design solutions. When performing a simulation, often improvements suggest themselves in the very activity
of building the model that the decision maker might never discover if someone else
is doing the modeling. This reinforces the argument that the decision maker should
be heavily involved in, if not actually conducting, the simulation project.
To make simulation more accessible to nonsimulation experts, products
have been developed that can be used at a basic level with very little training.
Unfortunately, there is always a potential danger that a tool will be used in a way
that exceeds ones skill level. While simulation continues to become more userfriendly, this does not absolve the user from acquiring the needed skills to make
intelligent use of it. Many aspects of simulation will continue to require some
training. Hoover and Perry (1989) note, The subtleties and nuances of model validation and output analysis have not yet been reduced to such a level of rote that
they can be completely embodied in simulation software.
Modelers should be aware of their own inabilities in dealing with the statistical issues associated with simulation. Such awareness, however, should not prevent one from using simulation within the realm of ones expertise. There are both
a basic as well as an advanced level at which simulation can be benecially used.
Rough-cut modeling to gain fundamental insights, for example, can be achieved
with only a rudimentary understanding of simulation. One need not have extensive simulation training to go after the low-hanging fruit. Simulation follows the
8020 rule, where 80 percent of the benet can be obtained from knowing only
20 percent of the science involved (just make sure you know the right 20 percent).
It isnt until more precise analysis is required that additional statistical training
and knowledge of experimental design are needed.
To reap the greatest benets from simulation, a certain degree of knowledge
and skill in the following areas is useful:
Project management.
Communication.

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Systems engineering.
Statistical analysis and design of experiments.
Modeling principles and concepts.
Basic programming and computer skills.
Training on one or more simulation products.
Familiarity with the system being investigated.

Experience has shown that some people learn simulation more rapidly and
become more adept at it than others. People who are good abstract thinkers yet
also pay close attention to detail seem to be the best suited for doing simulation.
Such individuals are able to see the forest while still keeping an eye on the trees
(these are people who tend to be good at putting together 1,000-piece puzzles).
They are able to quickly scope a project, gather the pertinent data, and get a useful model up and running without lots of starts and stops. A good modeler is somewhat of a sleuth, eager yet methodical and discriminating in piecing together all
of the evidence that will help put the model pieces together.
If short on time, talent, resources, or interest, the decision maker need not
despair. Plenty of consultants who are professionally trained and experienced can
provide simulation services. A competitive bid will help get the best price, but one
should be sure that the individual assigned to the project has good credentials.
If the use of simulation is only occasional, relying on a consultant may be the
preferred approach.

1.8 Economic Justication of Simulation

Cost is always an important issue when considering the use of any software tool,
and simulation is no exception. Simulation should not be used if the cost exceeds
the expected benets. This means that both the costs and the benets should be
carefully assessed. The use of simulation is often prematurely dismissed due to
the failure to recognize the potential benets and savings it can produce. Much of
the reluctance in using simulation stems from the mistaken notion that simulation
is costly and very time consuming. This perception is shortsighted and ignores the
fact that in the long run simulation usually saves much more time and cost than it
consumes. It is true that the initial investment, including training and start-up
costs, may be between $10,000 and $30,000 (simulation products themselves
generally range between $1,000 and $20,000). However, this cost is often recovered after the rst one or two projects. The ongoing expense of using simulation
for individual projects is estimated to be between 1 and 3 percent of the total
project cost (Glenney and Mackulak 1985). With respect to the time commitment
involved in doing simulation, much of the effort that goes into building the model
is in arriving at a clear denition of how the system operates, which needs to be
done anyway. With the advanced modeling tools that are now available, the actual
model development and running of simulations take only a small fraction (often
less than 5 percent) of the overall system design time.

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Savings from simulation are realized by identifying and eliminating problems

and inefciencies that would have gone unnoticed until system implementation.
Cost is also reduced by eliminating overdesign and removing excessive safety
factors that are added when performance projections are uncertain. By identifying
and eliminating unnecessary capital investments, and discovering and correcting
operating inefciencies, it is not uncommon for companies to report hundreds of
thousands of dollars in savings on a single project through the use of simulation.
The return on investment (ROI) for simulation often exceeds 1,000 percent, with
payback periods frequently being only a few months or the time it takes to complete a simulation project.
One of the difculties in developing an economic justication for simulation
is the fact that it is usually not known in advance how much savings will be realized until it is actually used. Most applications in which simulation has been used
have resulted in savings that, had the savings been known in advance, would have
looked very good in an ROI or payback analysis.
One way to assess in advance the economic benet of simulation is to assess
the risk of making poor design and operational decisions. One need only ask what
the potential cost would be if a misjudgment in systems planning were to occur.
Suppose, for example, that a decision is made to add another machine to solve a
capacity problem in a production or service system. What are the cost and probability associated with this being the wrong decision? If the cost associated with a
wrong decision is $100,000 and the decision maker is only 70 percent condent
that the decision is correct, then there is a 30 percent chance of incurring a cost of
$100,000. This results in a probable cost of $30,000 (.3 $100,000). Using this
approach, many decision makers recognize that they cant afford not to use simulation because the risk associated with making the wrong decision is too high.
Tying the benets of simulation to management and organizational goals also
provides justication for its use. For example, a company committed to continuous improvement or, more specically, to lead time or cost reduction can be
sold on simulation if it can be shown to be historically effective in these areas.
Simulation has gained the reputation as a best practice for helping companies
achieve organizational goals. Companies that profess to be serious about performance improvement will invest in simulation if they believe it can help them
achieve their goals.
The real savings from simulation come from allowing designers to make
mistakes and work out design errors on the model rather than on the actual system. The concept of reducing costs through working out problems in the design
phase rather than after a system has been implemented is best illustrated by the
rule of tens. This principle states that the cost to correct a problem increases by a
factor of 10 for every design stage through which it passes without being detected
(see Figure 1.4).
Simulation helps avoid many of the downstream costs associated with poor
decisions that are made up front. Figure 1.5 illustrates how the cumulative cost
resulting from systems designed using simulation can compare with the cost of
designing and operating systems without the use of simulation. Note that while

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Introduction to Simulation

Concept

Design

Installation

Operation

Cost of making
changes at subsequent
stages of system
development.

Cost

System stage

FIGURE 1.5
Cost without
simulation

System costs

Comparison of
cumulative system
costs with and without
simulation.

Cost with
simulation

Design
phase

Implementation
phase

Operation
phase

the short-term cost may be slightly higher due to the added labor and software
costs associated with simulation, the long-term costs associated with capital
investments and system operation are considerably lower due to better efciencies
realized through simulation. Dismissing the use of simulation on the basis of
sticker price is myopic and shows a lack of understanding of the long-term savings that come from having well-designed, efciently operating systems.
Many examples can be cited to show how simulation has been used to avoid
costly errors in the start-up of a new system. Simulation prevented an unnecessary
expenditure when a Fortune 500 company was designing a facility for producing
and storing subassemblies and needed to determine the number of containers required for holding the subassemblies. It was initially felt that 3,000 containers

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were needed until a simulation study showed that throughput did not improve signicantly when the number of containers was increased from 2,250 to 3,000. By
purchasing 2,250 containers instead of 3,000, a savings of $528,375 was expected
in the rst year, with annual savings thereafter of over $200,000 due to the savings
in oor space and storage resulting from having 750 fewer containers (Law and
McComas 1988).
Even if dramatic savings are not realized each time a model is built, simulation at least inspires condence that a particular system design is capable of meeting required performance objectives and thus minimizes the risk often associated
with new start-ups. The economic benet associated with instilling condence
was evidenced when an entrepreneur, who was attempting to secure bank nancing to start a blanket factory, used a simulation model to show the feasibility of the
proposed factory. Based on the processing times and equipment lists supplied by
industry experts, the model showed that the output projections in the business
plan were well within the capability of the proposed facility. Although unfamiliar
with the blanket business, bank ofcials felt more secure in agreeing to support
the venture (Bateman et al. 1997).
Often simulation can help improve productivity by exposing ways of making
better use of existing assets. By looking at a system holistically, long-standing
problems such as bottlenecks, redundancies, and inefciencies that previously
went unnoticed start to become more apparent and can be eliminated. The trick is
to nd waste, or muda, advises Shingo; after all, the most damaging kind of waste
is the waste we dont recognize (Shingo 1992). Consider the following actual
examples where simulation helped uncover and eliminate wasteful practices:
GE Nuclear Energy was seeking ways to improve productivity without
investing large amounts of capital. Through the use of simulation, the
company was able to increase the output of highly specialized reactor
parts by 80 percent. The cycle time required for production of each part
was reduced by an average of 50 percent. These results were obtained by
running a series of models, each one solving production problems
highlighted by the previous model (Bateman et al. 1997).
A large manufacturing company with stamping plants located throughout
the world produced stamped aluminum and brass parts on order according
to customer specications. Each plant had from 20 to 50 stamping presses
that were utilized anywhere from 20 to 85 percent. A simulation study
was conducted to experiment with possible ways of increasing capacity
utilization. As a result of the study, machine utilization improved from an
average of 37 to 60 percent (Hancock, Dissen, and Merten 1977).
A diagnostic radiology department in a community hospital was modeled
to evaluate patient and staff scheduling, and to assist in expansion
planning over the next ve years. Analysis using the simulation model
enabled improvements to be discovered in operating procedures that
precluded the necessity for any major expansions in department size
(Perry and Baum 1976).

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In each of these examples, signicant productivity improvements were realized without the need for making major investments. The improvements came
through nding ways to operate more efciently and utilize existing resources
more effectively. These capacity improvement opportunities were brought to light
through the use of simulation.

1.9 Sources of Information on Simulation

Simulation is a rapidly growing technology. While the basic science and theory
remain the same, new and better software is continually being developed to make
simulation more powerful and easier to use. It will require ongoing education for
those using simulation to stay abreast of these new developments. There are many
sources of information to which one can turn to learn the latest developments in
simulation technology. Some of the sources that are available include
Conferences and workshops sponsored by vendors and professional
societies (such as, Winter Simulation Conference and the IIE
Conference).
Professional magazines and journals (IIE Solutions, International Journal
of Modeling and Simulation, and the like).
Websites of vendors and professional societies (www.promodel.com,
www.scs.org, and so on).
Demonstrations and tutorials provided by vendors (like those on the
ProModel CD).
Textbooks (like this one).

1.10 How to Use This Book

This book is divided into three parts. Part I contains chapters describing the science and practice of simulation. The emphasis is deliberately oriented more toward the practice than the science. Simulation is a powerful decision support tool
that has a broad range of applications. While a fundamental understanding of how
simulation works is presented, the aim has been to focus more on how to use simulation to solve real-world problems.
Part II contains ProModel lab exercises that help develop simulation skills.
ProModel is a simulation package designed specically for ease of use, yet it provides the exibility to model any discrete event or continuous ow process. It is
similar to other simulation products in that it provides a set of basic modeling
constructs and a language for dening the logical decisions that are made in a system. Basic modeling objects in ProModel include entities (the objects being
processed), locations (the places where processing occurs), resources (the agents
used to process the entities), and paths (the course of travel for entities and
resources in moving between locations such as aisles or conveyors). Logical

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behavior such as the way entities arrive and their routings can be dened with little, if any, programming using the data entry tables that are provided. ProModel is
used by thousands of professionals in manufacturing and service-related industries and is taught in hundreds of institutions of higher learning.
Part III contains case study assignments that can be used for student projects to
apply the theory they have learned from Part I and to try out the skills they have acquired from doing the lab exercises (Part II). It is recommended that students be assigned at least one simulation project during the course. Preferably this is a project
performed for a nearby company or institution so it will be meaningful. If such a
project cannot be found, or as an additional practice exercise, the case studies provided should be useful. Student projects should be selected early in the course so
that data gathering can get started and the project completed within the allotted
time. The chapters in Part I are sequenced to parallel an actual simulation project.

1.11 Summary
Businesses today face the challenge of quickly designing and implementing complex production and service systems that are capable of meeting growing demands for quality, delivery, affordability, and service. With recent advances in
computing and software technology, simulation tools are now available to help
meet this challenge. Simulation is a powerful technology that is being used with
increasing frequency to improve system performance by providing a way to make
better design and management decisions. When used properly, simulation can reduce the risks associated with starting up a new operation or making improvements to existing operations.
Because simulation accounts for interdependencies and variability, it provides insights that cannot be obtained any other way. Where important system
decisions are being made of an operational nature, simulation is an invaluable
decision-making tool. Its usefulness increases as variability and interdependency
increase and the importance of the decision becomes greater.
Lastly, simulation actually makes designing systems fun! Not only can a designer try out new design concepts to see what works best, but the visualization
makes it take on a realism that is like watching an actual system in operation.
Through simulation, decision makers can play what-if games with a new system
or modied process before it actually gets implemented. This engaging process
stimulates creative thinking and results in good design decisions.

1.12 Review Questions

1. Dene simulation.
2. What reasons are there for the increased popularity of computer
simulation?

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3. What are two specic questions that simulation might help answer in a
bank? In a manufacturing facility? In a dental ofce?
4. What are three advantages that simulation has over alternative
approaches to systems design?
5. Does simulation itself optimize a system design? Explain.
6. How does simulation follow the scientic method?
7. A restaurant gets extremely busy during lunch (11:00 A.M. to 2:00 P.M.)
and is trying to decide whether it should increase the number of
waitresses from two to three. What considerations would you look at to
determine whether simulation should be used to make this decision?
8. How would you develop an economic justication for using simulation?
9. Is a simulation exercise wasted if it exposes no problems in a system
design? Explain.
10. A simulation run was made showing that a modeled factory could
produce 130 parts per hour. What information would you want to know
about the simulation study before placing any condence in the results?
11. A PC board manufacturer has high work-in-process (WIP) inventories,
yet machines and equipment seem underutilized. How could simulation
help solve this problem?
12. How important is a statistical background for doing simulation?
13. How can a programming background be useful in doing simulation?
14. Why are good project management and communication skills important
in simulation?
15. Why should the process owner be heavily involved in a simulation
project?
16. For which of the following problems would simulation likely be useful?
a. Increasing the throughput of a production line.
b. Increasing the pace of a worker on an assembly line.
c. Decreasing the time that patrons at an amusement park spend
waiting in line.
d. Determining the percentage defective from a particular machine.
e. Determining where to place inspection points in a process.
f. Finding the most efcient way to ll out an order form.

References
Audon, Wyston Hugh, and L. Kronenberger. The Faber Book of Aphorisms. London: Faber
and Faber, 1964.
Banks, J., and R. Gibson. 10 Rules for Determining When Simulation Is Not Appropriate. IIE Solutions, September 1997, pp. 3032.
Bateman, Robert E.; Royce O. Bowden; Thomas J. Gogg; Charles R. Harrell; and Jack
R. A. Mott. System Improvement Using Simulation. Utah: PROMODEL Corp., 1997.

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Deming, W. E. Foundation for Management of Quality in the Western World. Paper read at
a meeting of the Institute of Management Sciences, Osaka, Japan, 24 July 1989.
Glenney, Neil E., and Gerald T. Mackulak. Modeling & Simulation Provide Key to CIM
Implementation Philosophy. Industrial Engineering, May 1985.
Hancock, Walton; R. Dissen; and A. Merten. An Example of Simulation to Improve Plant
Productivity. AIIE Transactions, March 1977, pp. 210.
Harrell, Charles R., and Donald Hicks. Simulation Software Component Architecture
for Simulation-Based Enterprise Applications. In Proceedings of the 1998 Winter
Simulation Conference, ed. D. J. Medeiros, E. F. Watson, J. S. Carson, and
M. S. Manivannan, pp. 171721. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers,
Piscataway, New Jersey.
Harrington, H. James. Business Process Improvement. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991.
Hoover, Stewart V., and Ronald F. Perry. Simulation: A Problem-Solving Approach.
Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1989.
Law, A. M., and M. G. McComas. How Simulation Pays Off. Manufacturing Engineering, February 1988, pp. 3739.
Mott, Jack, and Kerim Tumay. Developing a Strategy for Justifying Simulation. Industrial Engineering, July 1992, pp. 3842.
Oxford American Dictionary. New York: Oxford University Press, 1980. [compiled by]
Eugene Enrich et al.
Perry, R. F., and R. F. Baum. Resource Allocation and Scheduling for a Radiology
Department. In Cost Control in Hospitals. Ann Arbor, MI: Health Administration
Press, 1976.
Rohrer, Matt, and Jerry Banks. Required Skills of a Simulation Analyst. IIE Solutions,
May 1998, pp. 723.
Schriber, T. J. The Nature and Role of Simulation in the Design of Manufacturing
Systems. Simulation in CIM and Articial Intelligence Techniques, ed. J. Retti and
K. E. Wichmann. S.D., CA.: Society for Computer Simulation, 1987, pp. 58.
Shannon, Robert E. Introduction to the Art and Science of Simulation. In Proceedings
of the 1998 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. D. J. Medeiros, E. F. Watson,
J. S. Carson, and M. S. Manivannan, pp. 714. Piscataway, NJ: Institute of Electrical
and Electronics Engineers.
Shingo, Shigeo. The Shingo Production Management SystemImproving Process Functions. Trans. Andrew P. Dillon. Cambridge, MA: Productivity Press, 1992.
Solberg, James. Design and Analysis of Integrated Manufacturing Systems. In W. Dale
Compton. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1988, p. 4.
The Wall Street Journal, March 19, 1999. United 747s Near Miss Sparks a Widespread
Review of Pilot Skills, p. A1.

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SYSTEM DYNAMICS

A fool with a tool is still a fool.

Unknown

2.1 Introduction
Knowing how to do simulation doesnt make someone a good systems designer
any more than knowing how to use a CAD system makes one a good product designer. Simulation is a tool that is useful only if one understands the nature of the
problem to be solved. It is designed to help solve systemic problems that are operational in nature. Simulation exercises fail to produce useful results more often
because of a lack of understanding of system dynamics than a lack of knowing
how to use the simulation software. The challenge is in understanding how the
system operates, knowing what you want to achieve with the system, and being
able to identify key leverage points for best achieving desired objectives. To
illustrate the nature of this challenge, consider the following actual scenario:
The pipe mill for the XYZ Steel Corporation was an important prot center, turning
steel slabs selling for under $200/ton into a product with virtually unlimited demand
selling for well over $450/ton. The mill took coils of steel of the proper thickness and
width through a series of machines that trimmed the edges, bent the steel into a
cylinder, welded the seam, and cut the resulting pipe into appropriate lengths, all on a
continuously running line. The line was even designed to weld the end of one coil to
the beginning of the next one on the y, allowing the line to run continually for days
on end.
Unfortunately the mill was able to run only about 50 percent of its theoretical capacity over the long term, costing the company tens of millions of dollars a year in lost
revenue. In an effort to improve the mills productivity, management studied each step
in the process. It was fairly easy to nd the slowest step in the line, but additional
study showed that only a small percentage of lost production was due to problems at
this bottleneck operation. Sometimes a step upstream from the bottleneck would

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have a problem, causing the bottleneck to run out of work, or a downstream step
would go down temporarily, causing work to back up and stop the bottleneck. Sometimes the bottleneck would get so far behind that there was no place to put incoming,
newly made pipe. In this case the workers would stop the entire pipe-making process
until the bottleneck was able to catch up. Often the bottleneck would then be idle waiting until the newly started line was functioning properly again and the new pipe had a
chance to reach it. Sometimes problems at the bottleneck were actually caused by improper work at a previous location.
In short, there was no single cause for the poor productivity seen at this plant.
Rather, several separate causes all contributed to the problem in complex ways. Management was at a loss to know which of several possible improvements (additional or
faster capacity at the bottleneck operation, additional storage space between stations,
better rules for when to shut down and start up the pipe-forming section of the mill,
better quality control, or better training at certain critical locations) would have the
most impact for the least cost. Yet the poor performance of the mill was costing enormous amounts of money. Management was under pressure to do something, but what
should it be?

This example illustrates the nature and difculty of the decisions that an
operations manager faces. Managers need to make decisions that are the best in
some sense. To do so, however, requires that they have clearly dened goals and
understand the system well enough to identify cause-and-effect relationships.
While every system is different, just as every product design is different,
the basic elements and types of relationships are the same. Knowing how the
elements of a system interact and how overall performance can be improved are
essential to the effective use of simulation. This chapter reviews basic system
dynamics and answers the following questions:

What is a system?
What are the elements of a system?
What makes systems so complex?
What are useful system metrics?
What is a systems approach to systems planning?
How do traditional systems analysis techniques compare with simulation?

2.2 System Denition

We live in a society that is composed of complex, human-made systems that
we depend on for our safety, convenience, and livelihood. Routinely we rely on
transportation, health care, production, and distribution systems to provide needed
goods and services. Furthermore, we place high demands on the quality, convenience, timeliness, and cost of the goods and services that are provided by these
systems. Remember the last time you were caught in a trafc jam, or waited for
what seemed like an eternity in a restaurant or doctors ofce? Contrast that experience with the satisfaction that comes when you nd a store that sells quality
merchandise at discount prices or when you locate a health care organization that

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System Dynamics

provides prompt and professional service. The difference is between a system that
has been well designed and operates smoothly, and one that is poorly planned and
managed.
A system, as used here, is dened as a collection of elements that function
together to achieve a desired goal (Blanchard 1991). Key points in this denition
include the fact that (1) a system consists of multiple elements, (2) these elements
are interrelated and work in cooperation, and (3) a system exists for the purpose
of achieving specic objectives. Examples of systems are trafc systems, political
systems, economic systems, manufacturing systems, and service systems. Our
main focus will be on manufacturing and service systems that process materials,
information, and people.
Manufacturing systems can be small job shops and machining cells or large
production facilities and assembly lines. Warehousing and distribution as well as
entire supply chain systems will be included in our discussions of manufacturing
systems. Service systems cover a wide variety of systems including health care
facilities, call centers, amusement parks, public transportation systems, restaurants, banks, and so forth.
Both manufacturing and service systems may be termed processing systems
because they process items through a series of activities. In a manufacturing system, raw materials are transformed into nished products. For example, a bicycle
manufacturer starts with tube stock that is then cut, welded, and painted to produce bicycle frames. In service systems, customers enter with some service need
and depart as serviced (and, we hope, satised) customers. In a hospital emergency room, for example, nurses, doctors, and other staff personnel admit and
treat incoming patients who may undergo tests and possibly even surgical procedures before nally being released. Processing systems are articial (they are
human-made), dynamic (elements interact over time), and usually stochastic (they
exhibit random behavior).

2.3 System Elements

From a simulation perspective, a system can be said to consist of entities, activities, resources, and controls (see Figure 2.1). These elements dene the who,
what, where, when, and how of entity processing. This model for describing a
FIGURE 2.1
Elements of a system.

Incoming entities

Activities

Resources

Controls

System

Outgoing entities

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system corresponds closely to the well-established ICAM denition (IDEF)

process model developed by the defense industry (ICAM stands for an early Air
Force program in integrated computer-aided manufacturing). The IDEF modeling
paradigm views a system as consisting of inputs and outputs (that is, entities), activities, mechanisms (that is, resources), and controls.

2.3.1 Entities
Entities are the items processed through the system such as products, customers,
and documents. Different entities may have unique characteristics such as cost,
shape, priority, quality, or condition. Entities may be further subdivided into the
following types:
Human or animate (customers, patients, etc.).
Inanimate (parts, documents, bins, etc.).
Intangible (calls, electronic mail, etc.).
For most manufacturing and service systems, the entities are discrete items.
This is the case for discrete part manufacturing and is certainly the case for nearly
all service systems that process customers, documents, and others. For some production systems, called continuous systems, a nondiscrete substance is processed
rather than discrete entities. Examples of continuous systems are oil reneries and
paper mills.

2.3.2 Activities
Activities are the tasks performed in the system that are either directly or
indirectly involved in the processing of entities. Examples of activities include
servicing a customer, cutting a part on a machine, or repairing a piece of equipment. Activities usually consume time and often involve the use of resources.
Activities may be classied as
Entity processing (check-in, treatment, inspection, fabrication, etc.).
Entity and resource movement (forklift travel, riding in an elevator, etc.).
Resource adjustments, maintenance, and repairs (machine setups, copy
machine repair, etc.).

2.3.3 Resources
Resources are the means by which activities are performed. They provide the
supporting facilities, equipment, and personnel for carrying out activities. While
resources facilitate entity processing, inadequate resources can constrain processing by limiting the rate at which processing can take place. Resources have
characteristics such as capacity, speed, cycle time, and reliability. Like entities,
resources can be categorized as
Human or animate (operators, doctors, maintenance personnel, etc.).
Inanimate (equipment, tooling, oor space, etc.).
Intangible (information, electrical power, etc.).

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Resources can also be classied as being dedicated or shared, permanent or

consumable, and mobile or stationary.

2.3.4 Controls
Controls dictate how, when, and where activities are performed. Controls impose
order on the system. At the highest level, controls consist of schedules, plans, and
policies. At the lowest level, controls take the form of written procedures and machine control logic. At all levels, controls provide the information and decision
logic for how the system should operate. Examples of controls include

Routing sequences.
Production plans.
Work schedules.
Task prioritization.
Control software.
Instruction sheets.

2.4 System Complexity

Elements of a system operate in concert with one another in ways that often result
in complex interactions. The word complex comes from the Latin complexus,
meaning entwined or connected together. Unfortunately, unaided human intuition
is not very good at analyzing and understanding complex systems. Economist
Herbert Simon called this inability of the human mind to grasp real-world
complexity the principle of bounded rationality. This principle states that the
capacity of the human mind for formulating and solving complex problems is
very small compared with the size of the problem whose solution is required for
objectively rational behavior in the real world, or even for a reasonable approximation to such objective rationality (Simon 1957).

Bounded rationalityour limited ability to grasp

real-world complexity.

While the sheer number of elements in a system can stagger the mind (the
number of different entities, activities, resources, and controls can easily exceed
100), the interactions of these elements are what make systems so complex and

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difcult to analyze. System complexity is primarily a function of the following

two factors:
1. Interdependencies between elements so that each element affects other
elements.
2. Variability in element behavior that produces uncertainty.

Interdependencies

Variability

Complexity

These two factors characterize virtually all human-made systems and make
system behavior difcult to analyze and predict. As shown in Figure 2.2, the degree of analytical difculty increases exponentially as the number of interdependencies and random variables increases.

2.4.1 Interdependencies
Interdependencies cause the behavior of one element to affect other elements in
the system. For example, if a machine breaks down, repair personnel are put into
action while downstream operations become idle for lack of parts. Upstream
operations may even be forced to shut down due to a logjam in the entity ow
causing a blockage of activities. Another place where this chain reaction or
domino effect manifests itself is in situations where resources are shared between

Analytical difculty
as a function of the
number of
interdependencies and
random variables.

Degree of analytical
difficulty

FIGURE 2.2

Number of interdependencies
and random variables

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two or more activities. A doctor treating one patient, for example, may be unable
to immediately respond to another patient needing his or her attention. This delay
in response may also set other forces in motion.
It should be clear that the complexity of a system has less to do with the
number of elements in the system than with the number of interdependent relationships. Even interdependent relationships can vary in degree, causing more or
less impact on overall system behavior. System interdependency may be either
tight or loose depending on how closely elements are linked. Elements that are
tightly coupled have a greater impact on system operation and performance than
elements that are only loosely connected. When an element such as a worker or
machine is delayed in a tightly coupled system, the impact is immediately felt by
other elements in the system and the entire process may be brought to a screeching halt.
In a loosely coupled system, activities have only a minor, and often delayed,
impact on other elements in the system. Systems guru Peter Senge (1990) notes
that for many systems, Cause and effect are not closely related in time and
space. Sometimes the distance in time and space between cause-and-effect relationships becomes quite sizable. If enough reserve inventory has been stockpiled,
a truckers strike cutting off the delivery of raw materials to a transmission plant
in one part of the world may not affect automobile assembly in another part of the
world for weeks. Cause-and-effect relationships are like a ripple of water that diminishes in impact as the distance in time and space increases.
Obviously, the preferred approach to dealing with interdependencies is to
eliminate them altogether. Unfortunately, this is not entirely possible for most
situations and actually defeats the purpose of having systems in the rst place.
The whole idea of a system is to achieve a synergy that otherwise would be unattainable if every component were to function in complete isolation. Several
methods are used to decouple system elements or at least isolate their inuence
so disruptions are not felt so easily. These include providing buffer inventories,
implementing redundant or backup measures, and dedicating resources to single tasks. The downside to these mitigating techniques is that they often lead to
excessive inventories and underutilized resources. The point to be made here
is that interdependencies, though they may be minimized somewhat, are simply a fact of life and are best dealt with through effective coordination and
management.

2.4.2 Variability
Variability is a characteristic inherent in any system involving humans and
machinery. Uncertainty in supplier deliveries, random equipment failures, unpredictable absenteeism, and uctuating demand all combine to create havoc in planning system operations. Variability compounds the already unpredictable effect of
interdependencies, making systems even more complex and unpredictable. Variability propagates in a system so that highly variable outputs from one workstation become highly variable inputs to another (Hopp and Spearman 2000).

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TABLE 2.1 Examples of System Variability

Type of Variability

Examples

Activity times
Decisions

Operation times, repair times, setup times, move times

To accept or reject a part, where to direct a particular customer, which
task to perform next
Lot sizes, arrival quantities, number of workers absent
Time between arrivals, time between equipment failures
Customer preference, part size, skill level

Quantities
Event intervals
Attributes

Table 2.1 identies the types of random variability that are typical of most manufacturing and service systems.
The tendency in systems planning is to ignore variability and calculate system capacity and performance based on average values. Many commercial scheduling packages such as MRP (material requirements planning) software work this
way. Ignoring variability distorts the true picture and leads to inaccurate performance predictions. Designing systems based on average requirements is like
deciding whether to wear a coat based on the average annual temperature or prescribing the same eyeglasses for everyone based on average eyesight. Adults have
been known to drown in water that was only four feet deepon the average!
Wherever variability occurs, an attempt should be made to describe the nature or
pattern of the variability and assess the range of the impact that variability might
have on system performance.
Perhaps the most illustrative example of the impact that variability can have
on system behavior is the simple situation where entities enter into a single queue
to wait for a single server. An example of this might be customers lining up in
front of an ATM. Suppose that the time between customer arrivals is exponentially distributed with an average time of one minute and that they take an average
time of one minute, exponentially distributed, to transact their business. In queuing theory, this is called an M/M/1 queuing system. If we calculate system performance based solely on average time, there will never be any customers waiting
in the queue. Every minute that a customer arrives the previous customer nishes
his or her transaction. Now if we calculate the number of customers waiting in
line, taking into account the variation, we will discover that the waiting line grows
to innity (the technical term is that the system explodes). Who would guess
that in a situation involving only one interdependent relationship that variation
alone would make the difference between zero items waiting in a queue and an innite number in the queue?
By all means, variability should be reduced and even eliminated wherever
possible. System planning is much easier if you dont have to contend with it.
Where it is inevitable, however, simulation can help predict the impact it will have
on system performance. Likewise, simulation can help identify the degree of
improvement that can be realized if variability is reduced or even eliminated. For

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example, it can tell you how much reduction in overall ow time and ow time
variation can be achieved if operation time variation can be reduced by, say,
20 percent.

2.5 System Performance Metrics

Metrics are measures used to assess the performance of a system. At the highest
level of an organization or business, metrics measure overall performance in
terms of prots, revenues, costs relative to budget, return on assets, and so on.
These metrics are typically nancial in nature and show bottom-line performance.
Unfortunately, such metrics are inherently lagging, disguise low-level operational
performance, and are reported only periodically. From an operational standpoint,
it is more benecial to track such factors as time, quality, quantity, efciency, and
utilization. These operational metrics reect immediate activity and are directly
controllable. They also drive the higher nancially related metrics. Key operational metrics that describe the effectiveness and efciency of manufacturing and
service systems include the following:
Flow timethe average time it takes for an item or customer to be
processed through the system. Synonyms include cycle time, throughput
time, and manufacturing lead time. For order fulllment systems, ow
time may also be viewed as customer response time or turnaround time.
A closely related term in manufacturing is makespan, which is the time
to process a given set of jobs. Flow time can be shortened by reducing
activity times that contribute to ow time such as setup, move, operation,
and inspection time. It can also be reduced by decreasing work-in-process
or average number of entities in the system. Since over 80 percent of
cycle time is often spent waiting in storage or queues, elimination of
buffers tends to produce the greatest reduction in cycle time. Another
solution is to add more resources, but this can be costly.
Utilizationthe percentage of scheduled time that personnel, equipment,
and other resources are in productive use. If a resource is not being
utilized, it may be because it is idle, blocked, or down. To increase
productive utilization, you can increase the demand on the resource or
reduce resource count or capacity. It also helps to balance work loads. In a
system with high variability in activity times, it is difcult to achieve high
utilization of resources. Job shops, for example, tend to have low machine
utilization. Increasing utilization for the sake of utilization is not a good
objective. Increasing the utilization of nonbottleneck resources, for
example, often only creates excessive inventories without creating
additional throughput.
Value-added timethe amount of time material, customers, and so forth
spend actually receiving value, where value is dened as anything for
which the customer is willing to pay. From an operational standpoint,

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value-added time is considered the same as processing time or time spent

actually undergoing some physical transformation or servicing. Inspection
time and waiting time are considered non-value-added time.
Waiting timethe amount of time that material, customers, and so on
spend waiting to be processed. Waiting time is by far the greatest
component of non-value-added time. Waiting time can be decreased by
reducing the number of items (such as customers or inventory levels) in
the system. Reducing variation and interdependencies in the system can
also reduce waiting times. Additional resources can always be added, but
the trade-off between the cost of adding the resources and the savings of
reduced waiting time needs to be evaluated.
Flow ratethe number of items produced or customers serviced per unit
of time (such as parts or customers per hour). Synonyms include
production rate, processing rate, or throughput rate. Flow rate can be
increased by better management and utilization of resources, especially
the limiting or bottleneck resource. This is done by ensuring that the
bottleneck operation or resource is never starved or blocked. Once system
throughput matches the bottleneck throughput, additional processing or
throughput capacity can be achieved by speeding up the bottleneck
operation, reducing downtimes and setup times at the bottleneck operation,
adding more resources to the bottleneck operation, or off-loading work
from the bottleneck operation.
Inventory or queue levelsthe number of items or customers in storage
or waiting areas. It is desirable to keep queue levels to a minimum while
still achieving target throughput and response time requirements. Where
queue levels uctuate, it is sometimes desirable to control the minimum
or maximum queue level. Queuing occurs when resources are unavailable
when needed. Inventory or queue levels can be controlled either by
balancing ow or by restricting production at nonbottleneck operations.
JIT (just-in-time) production is one way to control inventory levels.
Yieldfrom a production standpoint, the percentage of products
completed that conform to product specications as a percentage of the
total number of products that entered the system as raw materials. If 95
out of 100 items are nondefective, the yield is 95 percent. Yield can also
be measured by its complementreject or scrap rate.
Customer responsivenessthe ability of the system to deliver products in
a timely fashion to minimize customer waiting time. It might be measured
as ll rate, which is the number of customer orders that can be lled
immediately from inventory. In minimizing job lateness, it may be
desirable to minimize the overall late time, minimize the number or
percentage of jobs that are late, or minimize the maximum tardiness of
jobs. In make-to-stock operations, customer responsiveness can be
assured by maintaining adequate inventory levels. In make-to-order,
customer responsiveness is improved by lowering inventory levels so that
cycle times can be reduced.

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Variancethe degree of uctuation that can and often does occur in any
of the preceding metrics. Variance introduces uncertainty, and therefore
risk, in achieving desired performance goals. Manufacturers and service
providers are often interested in reducing variance in delivery and service
times. For example, cycle times and throughput rates are going to have
some variance associated with them. Variance is reduced by controlling
activity times, improving resource reliability, and adhering to schedules.
These metrics can be given for the entire system, or they can be broken down by
individual resource, entity type, or some other characteristic. By relating these
metrics to other factors, additional meaningful metrics can be derived that are
useful for benchmarking or other comparative analysis. Typical relational metrics
include minimum theoretical ow time divided by actual ow time (ow time
efciency), cost per unit produced (unit cost), annual inventory sold divided by
average inventory (inventory turns or turnover ratio), or units produced per cost or
labor input (productivity).

2.6 System Variables

Designing a new system or improving an existing system requires more than simply identifying the elements and performance goals of the system. It requires an
understanding of how system elements affect each other and overall performance
objectives. To comprehend these relationships, you must understand three types
of system variables:
1. Decision variables
2. Response variables
3. State variables

2.6.1 Decision Variables

Decision variables (also called input factors in SimRunner) are sometimes referred to as the independent variables in an experiment. Changing the values of a
systems independent variables affects the behavior of the system. Independent
variables may be either controllable or uncontrollable depending on whether the
experimenter is able to manipulate them. An example of a controllable variable is
the number of operators to assign to a production line or whether to work one or
two shifts. Controllable variables are called decision variables because the decision maker (experimenter) controls the values of the variables. An uncontrollable
variable might be the time to service a customer or the reject rate of an operation.
When dening the system, controllable variables are the information about the
system that is more prescriptive than descriptive (see section 2.9.3).
Obviously, all independent variables in an experiment are ultimately
controllablebut at a cost. The important point here is that some variables are
easier to change than others. When conducting experiments, the nal solution is

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often based on whether the cost to implement a change produces a higher return
in performance.

2.6.2 Response Variables

Response variables (sometimes called performance or output variables) measure
the performance of the system in response to particular decision variable settings.
A response variable might be the number of entities processed for a given period,
the average utilization of a resource, or any of the other system performance metrics described in section 2.5.
In an experiment, the response variable is the dependent variable, which depends on the particular value settings of the independent variables. The experimenter doesnt manipulate dependent variables, only independent or decision
variables. Obviously, the goal in systems planning is to nd the right values or settings of the decision variables that give the desired response values.

2.6.3 State Variables

State variables indicate the status of the system at any specic point in time. Examples of state variables are the current number of entities waiting to be
processed or the current status (busy, idle, down) of a particular resource. Response variables are often summaries of state variable changes over time. For example, the individual times that a machine is in a busy state can be summed over
a particular period and divided by the total available time to report the machine
utilization for that period.
State variables are dependent variables like response variables in that they
depend on the setting of the independent variables. State variables are often ignored in experiments since they are not directly controlled like decision variables
and are not of as much interest as the summary behavior reported by response
variables.
Sometimes reference is made to the state of a system as though a system itself can be in a particular state such as busy or idle. The state of a system actually
consists of that collection of variables necessary to describe a system at a particular time, relative to the objectives of the study (Law and Kelton 2000). If we
study the ow of customers in a bank, for example, the state of the bank for a
given point in time would include the current number of customers in the bank,
the current status of each teller (busy, idle, or whatever), and perhaps the time that
each customer has been in the system thus far.

2.7 System Optimization

Finding the right setting for decision variables that best meets performance
objectives is called optimization. Specically, optimization seeks the best combination of decision variable values that either minimizes or maximizes some
objective function such as costs or prots. An objective function is simply a

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response variable of the system. A typical objective in an optimization problem for

a manufacturing or service system might be minimizing costs or maximizing ow
rate. For example, we might be interested in nding the optimum number of personnel for stafng a customer support activity that minimizes costs yet handles the
call volume. In a manufacturing concern, we might be interested in maximizing
the throughput that can be achieved for a given system conguration. Optimization
problems often include constraints, limits to the values that the decision variables
can take on. For example, in nding the optimum speed of a conveyor such that
production cost is minimized, there would undoubtedly be physical limits to how
slow or fast the conveyor can operate. Constraints can also apply to response variables. An example of this might be an objective to maximize throughput but subject to the constraint that average waiting time cannot exceed 15 minutes.
In some instances, we may nd ourselves trying to achieve conicting
objectives. For example, minimizing production or service costs often conicts
with minimizing waiting costs. In system optimization, one must be careful to
weigh priorities and make sure the right objective function is driving the decisions. If, for example, the goal is to minimize production or service costs, the
obvious solution is to maintain only a sufcient workforce to meet processing
requirements. Unfortunately, in manufacturing systems this builds up work-inprocess and results in high inventory carrying costs. In service systems, long
queues result in long waiting times, hence dissatised customers. At the other
extreme, one might feel that reducing inventory or waiting costs should be the
overriding goal and, therefore, decide to employ more than an adequate number
of resources so that work-in-process or customer waiting time is virtually eliminated. It should be obvious that there is a point at which the cost of adding another
resource can no longer be justied by the diminishing incremental savings in
waiting costs that are realized. For this reason, it is generally conceded that a
better strategy is to nd the right trade-off or balance between the number of
resources and waiting times so that the total cost is minimized (see Figure 2.3).
FIGURE 2.3

Cost

Cost curves showing

optimum number of
resources to minimize
total cost.

Optimum

Total cost
Resource costs

Waiting costs
Number of resources

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As shown in Figure 2.3, the number of resources at which the sum of the
resource costs and waiting costs is at a minimum is the optimum number of
resources to have. It also becomes the optimum acceptable waiting time.
In systems design, arriving at an optimum system design is not always
realistic, given the almost endless congurations that are sometimes possible and
limited time that is available. From a practical standpoint, the best that can be
expected is a near optimum solution that gets us close enough to our objective,
given the time constraints for making the decision.

2.8 The Systems Approach

Due to departmentalization and specialization, decisions in the real world are often
made without regard to overall system performance. With everyone busy minding
his or her own area of responsibility, often no one is paying attention to the big
picture. One manager in a large manufacturing corporation noted that as many as
99 percent of the system improvement recommendations made in his company
failed to look at the system holistically. He further estimated that nearly 80 percent of the suggested changes resulted in no improvement at all, and many of the
suggestions actually hurt overall performance. When attempting to make system
improvements, it is often discovered that localized changes fail to produce the
overall improvement that is desired. Put in technical language: Achieving a local
optimum often results in a global suboptimum. In simpler terms: Its okay to act
locally as long as one is thinking globally. The elimination of a problem in one area
may only uncover, and sometimes even exacerbate, problems in other areas.
Approaching system design with overall objectives in mind and considering
how each element relates to each other and to the whole is called a systems or
holistic approach to systems design. Because systems are composed of interdependent elements, it is not possible to accurately predict how a system will
perform simply by examining each system element in isolation from the whole.
To presume otherwise is to take a reductionist approach to systems design, which
focuses on the parts rather than the whole. While structurally a system may be divisible, functionally it is indivisible and therefore requires a holistic approach to
systems thinking. Kofman and Senge (1995) observe
The dening characteristic of a system is that it cannot be understood as a function of
its isolated components. First, the behavior of the system doesnt depend on what
each part is doing but on how each part is interacting with the rest. . . . Second, to understand a system we need to understand how it ts into the larger system of which it
is a part. . . . Third, and most important, what we call the parts need not be taken as
primary. In fact, how we dene the parts is fundamentally a matter of perspective and
purpose, not intrinsic in the nature of the real thing we are looking at.

Whether designing a new system or improving an existing system, it is important to follow sound design principles that take into account all relevant variables.
The activity of systems design and process improvement, also called systems

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FIGURE 2.4
Four-step iterative
approach to systems
improvement.

Identify problems
and opportunities.

Select and
implement the
best solution.

Develop
alternative
solutions.

Evaluate the
solutions.

engineering, has been dened as

The effective application of scientic and engineering efforts to transform an operational need into a dened system conguration through the top-down iterative process
of requirements denition, functional analysis, synthesis, optimization, design, test
and evaluation (Blanchard 1991).

To state it simply, systems engineering is the process of identifying problems or

other opportunities for improvement, developing alternative solutions, evaluating
the solutions, and selecting and implementing the best solutions (see Figure 2.4).
All of this should be done from a systems point of view.

2.8.1 Identifying Problems and Opportunities

The importance of identifying the most signicant problem areas and recognizing
opportunities for improvement cannot be overstated. Performance standards
should be set high in order to look for the greatest improvement opportunities.
Companies making the greatest strides are setting goals of 100 to 500 percent
improvement in many areas such as inventory reduction or customer lead time reduction. Setting high standards pushes people to think creatively and often results
in breakthrough improvements that would otherwise never be considered. Contrast this way of thinking with one hospital whose standard for whether a patient
had a quality experience was whether the patient left alive! Such lack of vision
will never inspire the level of improvement needed to meet ever-increasing
customer expectations.

2.8.2 Developing Alternative Solutions

We usually begin developing a solution to a problem by understanding the problem, identifying key variables, and describing important relationships. This helps

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identify possible areas of focus and leverage points for applying a solution.
Techniques such as cause-and-effect analysis and pareto analysis are useful here.
Once a problem or opportunity has been identied and key decision variables
isolated, alternative solutions can be explored. This is where most of the design
and engineering expertise comes into play. Knowledge of best practices for common types of processes can also be helpful. The designer should be open to all
possible alternative feasible solutions so that the best possible solutions dont get
overlooked.
Generating alternative solutions requires creativity as well as organizational
and engineering skills. Brainstorming sessions, in which designers exhaust every
conceivably possible solution idea, are particularly useful. Designers should use
every stretch of the imagination and not be stied by conventional solutions
alone. The best ideas come when system planners begin to think innovatively and
break from traditional ways of doing things. Simulation is particularly helpful in
this process in that it encourages thinking in radical new ways.

2.8.3 Evaluating the Solutions

Alternative solutions should be evaluated based on their ability to meet the criteria
established for the evaluation. These criteria often include performance goals,
cost of implementation, impact on the sociotechnical infrastructure, and consistency with organizational strategies. Many of these criteria are difcult to measure
in absolute terms, although most design options can be easily assessed in terms of
relative merit.
After narrowing the list to two or three of the most promising solutions using
common sense and rough-cut analysis, more precise evaluation techniques may
need to be used. This is where simulation and other formal analysis tools come
into play.

2.8.4 Selecting and Implementing the Best Solution

Often the nal selection of what solution to implement is not left to the analyst, but
rather is a management decision. The analysts role is to present his or her evaluation in the clearest way possible so that an informed decision can be made.
Even after a solution is selected, additional modeling and analysis are often
needed for ne-tuning the solution. Implementers should then be careful to make
sure that the system is implemented as designed, documenting reasons for any
modications.

2.9 Systems Analysis Techniques

While simulation is perhaps the most versatile and powerful systems analysis
tool, other available techniques also can be useful in systems planning. These alternative techniques are usually computational methods that work well for simple
systems with little interdependency and variability. For more complex systems,

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these techniques still can provide rough estimates but fall short in producing the
insights and accurate answers that simulation provides. Systems implemented
using these techniques usually require some adjustments after implementation to
compensate for inaccurate calculations. For example, if after implementing a system it is discovered that the number of resources initially calculated is insufcient
to meet processing requirements, additional resources are added. This adjustment
can create extensive delays and costly modications if special personnel training
or custom equipment is involved. As a precautionary measure, a safety factor is
sometimes added to resource and space calculations to ensure they are adequate.
Overdesigning a system, however, also can be costly and wasteful.
As system interdependency and variability increase, not only does system
performance decrease, but the ability to accurately predict system performance
decreases as well (Lloyd and Melton 1997). Simulation enables a planner to accurately predict the expected performance of a system design and ultimately make
better design decisions.
Systems analysis tools, in addition to simulation, include simple calculations,
spreadsheets, operations research techniques (such as linear programming and
queuing theory), and special computerized tools for scheduling, layout, and so
forth. While these tools can provide quick and approximate solutions, they tend to
make oversimplifying assumptions, perform only static calculations, and are limited to narrow classes of problems. Additionally, they fail to fully account for
interdependencies and variability of complex systems and therefore are not as accurate as simulation in predicting complex system performance (see Figure 2.5).
They all lack the power, versatility, and visual appeal of simulation. They do provide quick solutions, however, and for certain situations produce adequate results.
They are important to cover here, not only because they sometimes provide a
good alternative to simulation, but also because they can complement simulation
by providing initial design estimates for input to the simulation model. They also
FIGURE 2.5
100%

Simulation improves
performance
predictability.
System predictability

With
simulation

50%
Without
simulation

0%

Call centers
Doctor's offices
Machining cells
Low

Banks
Emergency rooms
Production lines
Medium
System complexity

Airports
Hospitals
Factories
High

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can be useful to help validate the results of a simulation by comparing them with
results obtained using an analytic model.

2.9.1 Hand Calculations

Quick-and-dirty, pencil-and-paper sketches and calculations can be remarkably helpful in understanding basic requirements for a system. Many important
decisions have been made as the result of sketches drawn and calculations performed on a napkin or the back of an envelope. Some decisions may be so basic
that a quick mental calculation yields the needed results. Most of these calculations involve simple algebra, such as nding the number of resource units (such as
machines or service agents) to process a particular workload knowing the capacity
per resource unit. For example, if a requirement exists to process 200 items per
hour and the processing capacity of a single resource unit is 75 work items
per hour, three units of the resource, most likely, are going to be needed.
The obvious drawback to hand calculations is the inability to manually perform complex calculations or to take into account tens or potentially even hundreds of complex relationships simultaneously.

2.9.2 Spreadsheets
Spreadsheet software comes in handy when calculations, sometimes involving
hundreds of values, need to be made. Manipulating rows and columns of numbers
on a computer is much easier than doing it on paper, even with a calculator handy.
Spreadsheets can be used to perform rough-cut analysis such as calculating
average throughput or estimating machine requirements. The drawback to spreadsheet software is the inability (or, at least, limited ability) to include variability in
activity times, arrival rates, and so on, and to account for the effects of interdependencies.
What-if experiments can be run on spreadsheets based on expected values
(average customer arrivals, average activity times, mean time between equipment
failures) and simple interactions (activity A must be performed before activity B).
This type of spreadsheet simulation can be very useful for getting rough performance estimates. For some applications with little variability and component interaction, a spreadsheet simulation may be adequate. However, calculations based
on only average values and oversimplied interdependencies potentially can be
misleading and result in poor decisions. As one ProModel user reported, We just
completed our nal presentation of a simulation project and successfully saved
approximately $600,000. Our management was prepared to purchase an additional overhead crane based on spreadsheet analysis. We subsequently built a
ProModel simulation that demonstrated an additional crane will not be necessary.
The simulation also illustrated some potential problems that were not readily apparent with spreadsheet analysis.
Another weakness of spreadsheet modeling is the fact that all behavior is
assumed to be period-driven rather than event-driven. Perhaps you have tried to

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gure out how your bank account balance uctuated during a particular period
when all you had to go on was your monthly statements. Using ending balances
does not reect changes as they occurred during the period. You can know the current state of the system at any point in time only by updating the state variables of
the system each time an event or transaction occurs. When it comes to dynamic
models, spreadsheet simulation suffers from the curse of dimensionality because the size of the model becomes unmanageable.

2.9.3 Operations Research Techniques

Traditional operations research (OR) techniques utilize mathematical models to
solve problems involving simple to moderately complex relationships. These
mathematical models include both deterministic models such as mathematical
programming, routing, or network ows and probabilistic models such as queuing
and decision trees. These OR techniques provide quick, quantitative answers
without going through the guesswork process of trial and error. OR techniques
can be divided into two general classes: prescriptive and descriptive.
Prescriptive Techniques
Prescriptive OR techniques provide an optimum solution to a problem, such as
the optimum amount of resource capacity to minimize costs, or the optimum
product mix that will maximize prots. Examples of prescriptive OR optimization techniques include linear programming and dynamic programming. These
techniques are generally applicable when only a single goal is desired for minimizing or maximizing some objective functionsuch as maximizing prots or
minimizing costs.
Because optimization techniques are generally limited to optimizing for a
single goal, secondary goals get sacriced that may also be important. Additionally, these techniques do not allow random variables to be dened as input data,
thereby forcing the analyst to use average process times and arrival rates that can
produce misleading results. They also usually assume that conditions are constant
over the period of study. In contrast, simulation is capable of analyzing much
more complex relationships and time-varying circumstances. With optimization
capabilities now provided in simulation, simulation software has even taken on a
prescriptive roll.
Descriptive Techniques
Descriptive techniques such as queuing theory are static analysis techniques that
provide good estimates for basic problems such as determining the expected
average number of entities in a queue or the average waiting times for entities in
a queuing system. Queuing theory is of particular interest from a simulation
perspective because it looks at many of the same system characteristics and issues
that are addressed in simulation.
Queuing theory is essentially the science of waiting lines (in the United
Kingdom, people wait in queues rather than lines). A queuing system consists of

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FIGURE 2.6

Arriving entities

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Queue Server

Departing entities

Queuing system
conguration.

.
.
.

one or more queues and one or more servers (see Figure 2.6). Entities, referred to
in queuing theory as the calling population, enter the queuing system and either
are immediately served if a server is available or wait in a queue until a server becomes available. Entities may be serviced using one of several queuing disciplines: rst-in, rst-out (FIFO); last-in, rst-out (LIFO); priority; and others. The
system capacity, or number of entities allowed in the system at any one time, may
be either nite or, as is often the case, innite. Several different entity queuing behaviors can be analyzed such as balking (rejecting entry), reneging (abandoning
the queue), or jockeying (switching queues). Different interarrival time distributions (such as constant or exponential) may also be analyzed, coming from either
a nite or innite population. Service times may also follow one of several distributions such as exponential or constant.
Kendall (1953) devised a simple system for classifying queuing systems in
the form A/B/s, where A is the type of interarrival distribution, B is the type of
service time distribution, and s is the number of servers. Typical distribution types
for A and B are
M
G
D

for Markovian or exponential distribution

for a general distribution
for a deterministic or constant value

An M/D/1 queuing system, for example, is a system in which interarrival times are
exponentially distributed, service times are constant, and there is a single server.
The arrival rate in a queuing system is usually represented by the Greek letter
lambda () and the service rate by the Greek letter mu (). The mean interarrival
time then becomes 1/ and the mean service time is 1/. A trafc intensity factor
/ is a parameter used in many of the queuing equations and is represented by
the Greek letter rho ().
Common performance measures of interest in a queuing system are based on
steady-state or long-term expected values and include
L = expected number of entities in the system (number in the queue and in
service)
Lq = expected number of entities in the queue (queue length)

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43

System Dynamics

W = expected time in the system (ow time)

Wq = expected time in the queue (waiting time)
Pn = probability of exactly n customers in the system (n = 0, 1, . . .)
The M/M/1 system with innite capacity and a FIFO queue discipline is perhaps
the most basic queuing problem and sufciently conveys the procedure for analyzing queuing systems and understanding how the analysis is performed. The
equations for calculating the common performance measures in an M/M/1 are
L=

=
(1 )
( )

Lq = L =
W =
Wq =

2
(1 )

( )

Pn = (1 ) n

n = 0, 1, . . .

If either the expected number of entities in the system or the expected waiting
time is known, the other can be calculated easily using Littles law (1961):
L = W
Littles law also can be applied to the queue length and waiting time:
L q = Wq
Example: Suppose customers arrive to use an automatic teller machine (ATM) at an
interarrival time of 3 minutes exponentially distributed and spend an average of
2.4 minutes exponentially distributed at the machine. What is the expected number of
customers the system and in the queue? What is the expected waiting time for customers in the system and in the queue?
= 20 per hour
= 25 per hour
=

= .8

L=

( )

Solving for L:

20
(25 20)

20
=4
5

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Solving for Lq:

Lq =

2
(1 )

.82
(1 .8)

.64
.2

= 3.2
Solving for W using Littles formula:
W =
=

4
20

= .20 hrs
= 12 minutes
Solving for Wq using Littles formula:
Wq =

Lq

3.2
20

= .16 hrs
= 9.6 minutes

Descriptive OR techniques such as queuing theory are useful for the most
basic problems, but as systems become even moderately complex, the problems
get very complicated and quickly become mathematically intractable. In contrast,
simulation provides close estimates for even the most complex systems (assuming the model is valid). In addition, the statistical output of simulation is not
limited to only one or two metrics but instead provides information on all performance measures. Furthermore, while OR techniques give only average performance measures, simulation can generate detailed time-series data and
histograms providing a complete picture of performance over time.

2.9.4 Special Computerized Tools

Many special computerized tools have been developed for forecasting, scheduling, layout, stafng, and so on. These tools are designed to be used for narrowly
focused problems and are extremely effective for the kinds of problems they are
intended to solve. They are usually based on constant input values and are computed using static calculations. The main benet of special-purpose decision tools
is that they are usually easy to use because they are designed to solve a specic
type of problem.

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2.10 Summary
An understanding of system dynamics is essential to using any tool for planning
system operations. Manufacturing and service systems consist of interrelated
elements (personnel, equipment, and so forth) that interactively function to produce a specied outcome (an end product, a satised customer, and so on).
Systems are made up of entities (the objects being processed), resources (the personnel, equipment, and facilities used to process the entities), activities (the
process steps), and controls (the rules specifying the who, what, where, when, and
how of entity processing).
The two characteristics of systems that make them so difcult to analyze are
interdependencies and variability. Interdependencies cause the behavior of one
element to affect other elements in the system either directly or indirectly. Variability compounds the effect of interdependencies in the system, making system
behavior nearly impossible to predict without the use of simulation.
The variables of interest in systems analysis are decision, response, and state
variables. Decision variables dene how a system works; response variables
indicate how a system performs; and state variables indicate system conditions at
specic points in time. System performance metrics or response variables are generally time, utilization, inventory, quality, or cost related. Improving system performance requires the correct manipulation of decision variables. System optimization seeks to nd the best overall setting of decision variable values that
maximizes or minimizes a particular response variable value.
Given the complex nature of system elements and the requirement to make
good design decisions in the shortest time possible, it is evident that simulation
can play a vital role in systems planning. Traditional systems analysis techniques
are effective in providing quick but often rough solutions to dynamic systems
problems. They generally fall short in their ability to deal with the complexity and
dynamically changing conditions in manufacturing and service systems. Simulation is capable of imitating complex systems of nearly any size and to nearly any
level of detail. It gives accurate estimates of multiple performance metrics and
leads designers toward good design decisions.

2.11 Review Questions

1. Why is an understanding of system dynamics important to the use of
simulation?
2. What is a system?
3. What are the elements of a system from a simulation perspective? Give
an example of each.
4. What are two characteristics of systems that make them so complex?
5. What is the difference between a decision variable and a response variable?
6. Identify ve decision variables of a manufacturing or service system
that tend to be random.

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7. Give two examples of state variables.

8. List three performance metrics that you feel would be important for a
computer assembly line.
9. List three performance metrics you feel would be useful for a hospital
emergency room.
10. Dene optimization in terms of decision variables and response variables.
11. Is maximizing resource utilization a good overriding performance
objective for a manufacturing system? Explain.
12. What is a systems approach to problem solving?
13. How does simulation t into the overall approach of systems engineering?
14. In what situations would you use analytical techniques (like hand
calculations or spreadsheet modeling) over simulation?
15. Assuming you decided to use simulation to determine how many lift
trucks were needed in a distribution center, how might analytical models
be used to complement the simulation study both before and after?
16. What advantages does simulation have over traditional OR techniques
used in systems analysis?
17. Students come to a professors ofce to receive help on a homework
assignment every 10 minutes exponentially distributed. The time to help
a student is exponentially distributed with a mean of 7 minutes. What are
the expected number of students waiting to be helped and the average
time waiting before being helped? For what percentage of time is it
expected there will be more than two students waiting to be helped?

References
Blanchard, Benjamin S. System Engineering Management. New York: John Wiley & Sons,
1991.
Hopp, Wallace J., and M. Spearman. Factory Physics. New York: Irwin/McGraw-Hill,
2000, p. 282.
Kendall, D. G. Stochastic Processes Occurring in the Theory of Queues and Their
Analysis by the Method of Imbedded Markov Chains. Annals of Mathematical
Statistics 24 (1953), pp. 33854.
Kofman, Fred, and P. Senge. Communities of Commitment: The Heart of Learning
Organizations. Sarita Chawla and John Renesch, (eds.), Portland, OR. Productivity
Press, 1995.
Law, Averill M., and David W. Kelton. Simulation Modeling and Analysis. New York:
McGraw-Hill, 2000.
Little, J. D. C. A Proof for the Queuing Formula: L = W. Operations Research 9, no. 3
(1961), pp. 38387.
Lloyd, S., and K. Melton. Using Statistical Process Control to Obtain More Precise
Distribution Fitting Using Distribution Fitting Software. Simulators International
XIV 29, no. 3 (April 1997), pp. 19398.
Senge, Peter. The Fifth Discipline. New York: Doubleday, 1990.
Simon, Herbert A. Models of Man. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1957, p. 198.

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3. Simulation Basics

SIMULATION BASICS

Zeal without knowledge is re without light.

Dr. Thomas Fuller

3.1 Introduction
Simulation is much more meaningful when we understand what it is actually doing.
Understanding how simulation works helps us to know whether we are applying it
correctly and what the output results mean. Many books have been written that give
thorough and detailed discussions of the science of simulation (see Banks et al. 2001;
Hoover and Perry 1989; Law and Kelton 2000; Pooch and Wall 1993; Ross 1990;
Shannon 1975; Thesen and Travis 1992; and Widman, Loparo, and Nielsen 1989).
This chapter attempts to summarize the basic technical issues related to simulation
that are essential to understand in order to get the greatest benet from the tool. The
chapter discusses the different types of simulation and how random behavior is simulated. A spreadsheet simulation example is given in this chapter to illustrate how
various techniques are combined to simulate the behavior of a common system.

3.2 Types of Simulation

The way simulation works is based largely on the type of simulation used. There
are many ways to categorize simulation. Some of the most common include
Static or dynamic.
Stochastic or deterministic.
Discrete event or continuous.
The type of simulation we focus on in this book can be classied as dynamic,
stochastic, discrete-event simulation. To better understand this classication, we
47

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will look at what the rst two characteristics mean in this chapter and focus on
what the third characteristic means in Chapter 4.

3.2.1 Static versus Dynamic Simulation

A static simulation is one that is not based on time. It often involves drawing
random samples to generate a statistical outcome, so it is sometimes called Monte
Carlo simulation. In nance, Monte Carlo simulation is used to select a portfolio of
stocks and bonds. Given a portfolio, with different probabilistic payouts, it is
possible to generate an expected yield. One material handling system supplier
developed a static simulation model to calculate the expected time to travel from
one rack location in a storage system to any other rack location. A random sample
of 100 fromto relationships were used to estimate an average travel time. Had
every fromto trip been calculated, a 1,000-location rack would have involved
1,000! calculations.
Dynamic simulation includes the passage of time. It looks at state changes as
they occur over time. A clock mechanism moves forward in time and state variables are updated as time advances. Dynamic simulation is well suited for
analyzing manufacturing and service systems since they operate over time.

3.2.2 Stochastic versus Deterministic Simulation

Simulations in which one or more input variables are random are referred to as
stochastic or probabilistic simulations. A stochastic simulation produces output
that is itself random and therefore gives only one data point of how the system
might behave.
Simulations having no input components that are random are said to be
deterministic. Deterministic simulation models are built the same way as stochastic models except that they contain no randomness. In a deterministic simulation,
all future states are determined once the input data and initial state have been
dened.
As shown in Figure 3.1, deterministic simulations have constant inputs and
produce constant outputs. Stochastic simulations have random inputs and produce
random outputs. Inputs might include activity times, arrival intervals, and routing
sequences. Outputs include metrics such as average ow time, ow rate, and resource utilization. Any output impacted by a random input variable is going to
also be a random variable. That is why the random inputs and random outputs of
Figure 3.1(b) are shown as statistical distributions.
A deterministic simulation will always produce the exact same outcome no
matter how many times it is run. In stochastic simulation, several randomized runs
or replications must be made to get an accurate performance estimate because
each run varies statistically. Performance estimates for stochastic simulations are
obtained by calculating the average value of the performance metric across all of
the replications. In contrast, deterministic simulations need to be run only once to
get precise results because the results are always the same.

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Simulation Basics

FIGURE 3.1
Examples of (a) a deterministic simulation and (b) a stochastic simulation.
Constant
inputs

Constant
outputs

7
3.4

Random
inputs

Random
outputs

12.3
Simulation

Simulation
106

(a)

(b)

3.3 Random Behavior

Stochastic systems frequently have time or quantity values that vary within a
given range and according to specied density, as dened by a probability distribution. Probability distributions are useful for predicting the next time, distance,
quantity, and so forth when these values are random variables. For example, if an
operation time varies between 2.2 minutes and 4.5 minutes, it would be dened in
the model as a probability distribution. Probability distributions are dened by
specifying the type of distribution (normal, exponential, or another type) and the
parameters that describe the shape or density and range of the distribution. For
example, we might describe the time for a check-in operation to be normally
distributed with a mean of 5.2 minutes and a standard deviation of 0.4 minute.
During the simulation, values are obtained from this distribution for successive
operation times. The shape and range of time values generated for this activity
will correspond to the parameters used to dene the distribution. When we generate a value from a distribution, we call that value a random variate.
Probability distributions from which we obtain random variates may be
either discrete (they describe the likelihood of specic values occurring) or
continuous (they describe the likelihood of a value being within a given range).
Figure 3.2 shows graphical examples of a discrete distribution and a continuous
distribution.
A discrete distribution represents a nite or countable number of possible
values. An example of a discrete distribution is the number of items in a lot or
individuals in a group of people. A continuous distribution represents a continuum
of values. An example of a continuous distribution is a machine with a cycle time
that is uniformly distributed between 1.2 minutes and 1.8 minutes. An innite
number of possible values exist within this range. Discrete and continuous
distributions are further dened in Chapter 6. Appendix A describes many of the
distributions used in simulation.

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Part I

FIGURE 3.2

p (x) 1.0

Examples of (a) a
discrete probability
distribution and (b) a
continuous probability
distribution.

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.8
.6

(a )

.4
.2
0
0

4
3
5
Discrete Value

f (x) 1.0
.8
.6
(b )
.4
.2
0
0

4
3
5
Continuous Value

3.4 Simulating Random Behavior

One of the most powerful features of simulation is its ability to mimic random
behavior or variation that is characteristic of stochastic systems. Simulating
random behavior requires that a method be provided to generate random numbers
as well as routines for generating random variates based on a given probability distribution. Random numbers and random variates are dened in the next sections
along with the routines that are commonly used to generate them.

3.4.1 Generating Random Numbers

Random behavior is imitated in simulation by using a random number generator.
The random number generator operates deep within the heart of a simulation
model, pumping out a stream of random numbers. It provides the foundation for

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FIGURE 3.3
The uniform(0,1)
distribution of a
random number
generator.

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f (x)

f (x )

{ 10

for 0 x 1
elsewhere

Mean 1
2

1.0

Variance 2 1
12
0

1.0

simulating random events occurring in the simulated system such as the arrival
time of cars to a restaurants drive-through window; the time it takes the driver to
place an order; the number of hamburgers, drinks, and fries ordered; and the time
it takes the restaurant to prepare the order. The input to the procedures used to
generate these types of events is a stream of numbers that are uniformly distributed between zero and one (0 x 1). The random number generator is responsible for producing this stream of independent and uniformly distributed numbers
(Figure 3.3).
Before continuing, it should be pointed out that the numbers produced by a
random number generator are not random in the truest sense. For example, the
generator can reproduce the same sequence of numbers again and again, which is
not indicative of random behavior. Therefore, they are often referred to as pseudorandom number generators (pseudo comes from Greek and means false or fake).
Practically speaking, however, good pseudo-random number generators can
pump out long sequences of numbers that pass statistical tests for randomness (the
numbers are independent and uniformly distributed). Thus the numbers approximate real-world randomness for purposes of simulation, and the fact that they are
reproducible helps us in two ways. It would be difcult to debug a simulation
program if we could not regenerate the same sequence of random numbers to reproduce the conditions that exposed an error in our program. We will also learn in
Chapter 10 how reproducing the same sequence of random numbers is useful
when comparing different simulation models. For brevity, we will drop the
pseudo prex as we discuss how to design and keep our random number generator
healthy.
Linear Congruential Generators
There are many types of established random number generators, and researchers
are actively pursuing the development of new ones (LEcuyer 1998). However,
most simulation software is based on linear congruential generators (LCG). The
LCG is efcient in that it quickly produces a sequence of random numbers without requiring a great deal of computational resources. Using the LCG, a sequence
of integers Z1, Z2, Z3, . . . is dened by the recursive formula
Z i = (a Z i1 + c) mod(m)

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where the constant a is called the multiplier, the constant c the increment, and the
constant m the modulus (Law and Kelton 2000). The user must provide a seed or
starting value, denoted Z 0, to begin generating the sequence of integer values. Z 0,
a, c, and m are all nonnegative integers. The value of Zi is computed by dividing
(aZ i1 + c) by m and setting Z i equal to the remainder part of the division, which
is the result returned by the mod function. Therefore, the Zi values are bounded by
0 Zi m 1 and are uniformly distributed in the discrete case. However, we
desire the continuous version of the uniform distribution with values ranging
between a low of zero and a high of one, which we will denote as Ui for i = 1, 2,
3, . . . . Accordingly, the value of Ui is computed by dividing Zi by m.
In a moment, we will consider some requirements for selecting the values for
a, c, and m to ensure that the random number generator produces a long sequence
of numbers before it begins to repeat them. For now, however, lets assign the following values a = 21, c = 3, and m = 16 and generate a few pseudo-random
numbers. Table 3.1 contains a sequence of 20 random numbers generated from the
recursive formula
Zi = (21Z i1 + 3) mod(16)
An integer value of 13 was somewhat arbitrarily selected between 0 and
m 1 = 16 1 = 15 as the seed (Z 0 = 13) to begin generating the sequence of
TABLE 3.1 Example LCG Zi = (21Zi1 + 3) mod(16),
with Z0 = 13
i

21Zi1 + 3

Zi

Ui = Zi /16

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

276
87
150
129
24
171
234
213
108
255
318
297
192
3
66
45
276
87
150
129

13
4
7
6
1
8
11
10
5
12
15
14
9
0
3
2
13
4
7
6
1

0.2500
0.4375
0.3750
0.0625
0.5000
0.6875
0.6250
0.3125
0.7500
0.9375
0.8750
0.5625
0.0000
0.1875
0.1250
0.8125
0.2500
0.4375
0.3750
0.0625

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numbers in Table 3.1. The value of Z1 is obtained as

Z1 = (aZ 0 + c) mod(m) = (21(13) + 3) mod(16) = (276) mod(16) = 4
Note that 4 is the remainder term from dividing 16 into 276. The value of U1 is
computed as
U1 = Z1/16 = 4/16 = 0.2500
The process continues using the value of Z1 to compute Z 2 and then U2.
Changing the value of Z 0 produces a different sequence of uniform(0,1)
numbers. However, the original sequence can always be reproduced by setting the
seed value back to 13 (Z 0 = 13). The ability to repeat the simulation experiment
under the exact same random conditions is very useful, as will be demonstrated
in Chapter 10 with a technique called common random numbers.
Note that in ProModel the sequence of random numbers is not generated in
advance and then read from a table as we have done. Instead, the only value saved
is the last Z i value that was generated. When the next random number in the sequence is needed, the saved value is fed back to the generator to produce the next
random number in the sequence. In this way, the random number generator is
called each time a new random event is scheduled for the simulation.
Due to computational constraints, the random number generator cannot go on
indenitely before it begins to repeat the same sequence of numbers. The LCG in
Table 3.1 will generate a sequence of 16 numbers before it begins to repeat itself.
You can see that it began repeating itself starting in the 17th position. The value of
16 is referred to as the cycle length of the random number generator, which is disturbingly short in this case. A long cycle length is desirable so that each replication
of a simulation is based on a different segment of random numbers. This is how
we collect independent observations of the models output.
Lets say, for example, that to run a certain simulation model for one replication requires that the random number generator be called 1,000 times during the
simulation and we wish to execute ve replications of the simulation. The rst
replication would use the rst 1,000 random numbers in the sequence, the second
replication would use the next 1,000 numbers in the sequence (the number that
would appear in positions 1,001 to 2,000 if a table were generated in advance), and
so on. In all, the random number generator would be called 5,000 times. Thus we
would need a random number generator with a cycle length of at least 5,000.
The maximum cycle length that an LCG can achieve is m. To realize the
maximum cycle length, the values of a, c, and m have to be carefully selected.
A guideline for the selection is to assign (Pritsker 1995)
1. m = 2b, where b is determined based on the number of bits per word on
the computer being used. Many computers use 32 bits per word, making
31 a good choice for b.
2. c and m such that their greatest common factor is 1 (the only positive
integer that exactly divides both m and c is 1).
3. a = 1 + 4k, where k is an integer.

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Following this guideline, the LCG can achieve a full cycle length of over 2.1
billion (231 to be exact) random numbers.
Frequently, the long sequence of random numbers is subdivided into smaller
segments. These subsegments are referred to as streams. For example, Stream 1
could begin with the random number in the rst position of the sequence and
continue down to the random number in the 200,000th position of the sequence.
Stream 2, then, would start with the random number in the 200,001st position of
the sequence and end at the 400,000th position, and so on. Using this approach,
each type of random event in the simulation model can be controlled by a unique
stream of random numbers. For example, Stream 1 could be used to generate the
arrival pattern of cars to a restaurants drive-through window and Stream 2 could
be used to generate the time required for the driver of the car to place an order.
This assumes that no more than 200,000 random numbers are needed to simulate
each type of event. The practical and statistical advantages of assigning unique
streams to each type of event in the model are described in Chapter 10.
To subdivide the generators sequence of random numbers into streams, you
rst need to decide how many random numbers to place in each stream. Next, you
begin generating the entire sequence of random numbers (cycle length) produced
by the generator and recording the Zi values that mark the beginning of each stream.
Therefore, each stream has its own starting or seed value. When using the random
number generator to drive different events in a simulation model, the previously
generated random number from a particular stream is used as input to the generator
to generate the next random number from that stream. For convenience, you may
want to think of each stream as a separate random number generator to be used in
different places in the model. For example, see Figure 10.5 in Chapter 10.
There are two types of linear congruential generators: the mixed congruential
generator and the multiplicative congruential generator. Mixed congruential generators are designed by assigning c > 0. Multiplicative congruential generators are
designed by assigning c = 0. The multiplicative generator is more efcient than the
mixed generator because it does not require the addition of c. The maximum cycle
length for a multiplicative generator can be set within one unit of the maximum
cycle length of the mixed generator by carefully selecting values for a and m. From
a practical standpoint, the difference in cycle length is insignicant considering that
both types of generators can boast cycle lengths of more than 2.1 billion.
ProModel uses the following multiplicative generator:
Zi = (630,360,016Zi1) mod(231 1)
Specically, it is a prime modulus multiplicative linear congruential generator
(PMMLCG) with a = 630,360,016, c = 0, and m = 231 1. It has been extensively tested and is known to be a reliable random number generator for simulation (Law and Kelton 2000). The ProModel implementation of this generator
divides the cycle length of 231 1 = 2,147,483,647 into 100 unique streams.
Testing Random Number Generators
When faced with using a random number generator about which you know very
little, it is wise to verify that the numbers emanating from it satisfy the two

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important properties dened at the beginning of this section. The numbers produced by the random number generator must be (1) independent and (2) uniformly
distributed between zero and one (uniform(0,1)). To verify that the generator
satises these properties, you rst generate a sequence of random numbers U1, U2,
U3, . . . and then subject them to an appropriate test of hypothesis.
The hypotheses for testing the independence property are
H 0: Ui values from the generator are independent
H1: Ui values from the generator are not independent
Several statistical methods have been developed for testing these hypotheses at
a specied signicance level . One of the most commonly used methods is
the runs test. Banks et al. (2001) review three different versions of the runs test
for conducting this independence test. Additionally, two runs tests are implemented in Stat::Fitthe Runs Above and Below the Median Test and the Runs
Up and Runs Down Test. Chapter 6 contains additional material on tests for
independence.
The hypotheses for testing the uniformity property are
H 0: Ui values are uniform(0,1)
H1: Ui values are not uniform(0,1)
Several statistical methods have also been developed for testing these hypotheses
at a specied signicance level . The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the chisquare test are perhaps the most frequently used tests. (See Chapter 6 for a description of the chi-square test.) The objective is to determine if the uniform(0,1)
distribution ts or describes the sequence of random numbers produced by the
random number generator. These tests are included in the Stat::Fit software and
are further described in many introductory textbooks on probability and statistics
(see, for example, Johnson 1994).

3.4.2 Generating Random Variates

This section introduces common methods for generating observations (random
variates) from probability distributions other than the uniform(0,1) distribution.
For example, the time between arrivals of cars to a restaurants drive-through
window may be exponentially distributed, and the time required for drivers to
place orders at the window might follow the lognormal distribution. Observations
from these and other commonly used distributions are obtained by transforming
the observations generated by the random number generator to the desired distribution. The transformed values are referred to as variates from the specied
distribution.
There are several methods for generating random variates from a desired distribution, and the selection of a particular method is somewhat dependent on the
characteristics of the desired distribution. Methods include the inverse transformation method, the acceptance/rejection method, the composition method, the
convolution method, and the methods employing special properties. The inverse
transformation method, which is commonly used to generate variates from both

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discrete and continuous distributions, is described starting rst with the continuous case. For a review of the other methods, see Law and Kelton (2000).
Continuous Distributions
The application of the inverse transformation method to generate random variates
from continuous distributions is straightforward and efcient for many continuous distributions. For a given probability density function f (x), nd the cumulative distribution function of X. That is, F(x) = P(X x). Next, set U = F(x),
where U is uniform(0,1), and solve for x. Solving for x yields x = F1(U ). The
equation x = F1(U) transforms U into a value for x that conforms to the given
distribution f(x).
As an example, suppose that we need to generate variates from the exponential
distribution with mean . The probability density function f (x) and corresponding
cumulative distribution function F(x) are

1 x /
for x > 0
e
f(x) =

0
elsewhere

1 ex / for x > 0
F(x) =
0
elsewhere
Setting U = F(x) and solving for x yields
U = 1 ex/
ex/ = 1 U
ln (ex/) = ln (1 U)
where ln is the natural logarithm
x/ = ln (1 U)
x = ln (1 U)
The random variate x in the above equation is exponentially distributed with mean
provided U is uniform(0,1).
Suppose three observations of an exponentially distributed random variable
with mean = 2 are desired. The next three numbers generated by the random
number generator are U1 = 0.27, U2 = 0.89, and U3 = 0.13. The three numbers
are transformed into variates x1, x2, and x3 from the exponential distribution with
mean = 2 as follows:
x1 = 2 ln (1 U1) = 2 ln (1 0.27) = 0.63
x2 = 2 ln (1 U2) = 2 ln (1 0.89) = 4.41
x3 = 2 ln (1 U3) = 2 ln (1 0.13) = 0.28
Figure 3.4 provides a graphical representation of the inverse transformation
method in the context of this example. The rst step is to generate U, where U is
uniform(0,1). Next, locate U on the y axis and draw a horizontal line from that
point to the cumulative distribution function [F(x) = 1 ex/2]. From this point

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FIGURE 3.4
Graphical explanation
of inverse
transformation method
for continuous
variates.

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F (x)
1.00
U2 = 1 e x2/ 2 = 0.89

0.50

U1 = 1 e x1/ 2 = 0.27

x1 = 2 ln (1 0.27) = 0.63

x2 = 2 ln (1 0.89) = 4.41

of intersection with F(x), a vertical line is dropped down to the x axis to obtain the
corresponding value of the variate. This process is illustrated in Figure 3.4 for
generating variates x1 and x2 given U1 = 0.27 and U2 = 0.89.
Application of the inverse transformation method is straightforward as long
as there is a closed-form formula for the cumulative distribution function, which
is the case for many continuous distributions. However, the normal distribution is
one exception. Thus it is not possible to solve for a simple equation to generate
normally distributed variates. For these cases, there are other methods that can be
used to generate the random variates. See, for example, Law and Kelton (2000)
for a description of additional methods for generating random variates from
continuous distributions.
Discrete Distributions
The application of the inverse transformation method to generate variates from
discrete distributions is basically the same as for the continuous case. The difference is in how it is implemented. For example, consider the following probability
mass function:

0.10
for x = 1
p(x) = P(X = x) = 0.30
for x = 2

0.60
for x = 3
The random variate x has three possible values. The probability that x is equal to
1 is 0.10, P(X = 1) = 0.10; P(X = 2) = 0.30; and P(X = 3) = 0.60. The cumulative distribution function F(x) is shown in Figure 3.5. The random variable x
could be used in a simulation to represent the number of defective components on
a circuit board or the number of drinks ordered from a drive-through window, for
example.
Suppose that an observation from the above discrete distribution is desired.
The rst step is to generate U, where U is uniform(0,1). Using Figure 3.5, the

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FIGURE 3.5
Graphical explanation
of inverse
transformation method
for discrete variates.

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F (x )
1.00

U 2 = 0.89

0.40

U 1 = 0.27

U 3 = 0.05

0.10
1
x3 = 1

2
x1 = 2

3
x2 3

value of the random variate is determined by locating U on the y axis, drawing a

horizontal line from that point until it intersects with a step in the cumulative
function, and then dropping a vertical line from that point to the x axis to read the
value of the variate. This process is illustrated in Figure 3.5 for x1, x2, and x3 given
U1 = 0.27, U2 = 0.89, and U3 = 0.05. Equivalently, if 0 Ui 0.10, then xi = 1;
if 0.10 < Ui 0.40, then xi = 2; if 0.40 < Ui 1.00, then xi = 3. Note that
should we generate 100 variates using the above process, we would expect a value
of 3 to be returned 60 times, a value of 2 to be returned 30 times, and a value of 1
to be returned 10 times.
The inverse transformation method can be applied to any discrete distribution
by dividing the y axis into subintervals as dened by the cumulative distribution
function. In our example case, the subintervals were [0, 0.10], (0.10, 0.40], and
(0.40, 1.00]. For each subinterval, record the appropriate value for the random
variate. Next, develop an algorithm that calls the random number generator to
receive a specic value for U, searches for and locates the subinterval that contains
U, and returns the appropriate value for the random variate.
Locating the subinterval that contains a specic U value is relatively straightforward when there are only a few possible values for the variate. However,
the number of possible values for a variate can be quite large for some discrete
distributions. For example, a random variable having 50 possible values could
require that 50 subintervals be searched before locating the subinterval that
contains U. In such cases, sophisticated search algorithms have been developed
that quickly locate the appropriate subinterval by exploiting certain characteristics
of the discrete distribution for which the search algorithm was designed. A good
source of information on the subject can be found in Law and Kelton (2000).

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3.5 Simple Spreadsheet Simulation

This chapter has covered some really useful information, and it will be constructive to pull it all together for our rst dynamic, stochastic simulation model. The
simulation will be implemented as a spreadsheet model because the example
system is not so complex as to require the use of a commercial simulation software product. Furthermore, a spreadsheet will provide a nice tabulation of the
random events that produce the output from the simulation, thereby making it
ideal for demonstrating how simulations of dynamic, stochastic systems are often
accomplished. The system to be simulated follows.
Customers arrive to use an automatic teller machine (ATM) at a mean interarrival time of 3.0 minutes exponentially distributed. When customers arrive to
the system they join a queue to wait for their turn on the ATM. The queue has the
capacity to hold an innite number of customers. Customers spend an average of
2.4 minutes exponentially distributed at the ATM to complete their transactions,
which is called the service time at the ATM. Simulate the system for the arrival
and processing of 25 customers and estimate the expected waiting time for customers in the queue (the average time customers wait in line for the ATM) and the
expected time in the system (the average time customers wait in the queue plus the
average time it takes them to complete their transaction at the ATM).
Using the systems terminology introduced in Chapter 2 to describe the ATM
system, the entities are the customers that arrive to the ATM for processing. The
resource is the ATM that serves the customers, which has the capacity to serve one
customer at a time. The system controls that dictate how, when, and where activities are performed for this ATM system consist of the queuing discipline, which
is rst-in, rst-out (FIFO). Under the FIFO queuing discipline the entities
(customers) are processed by the resource (ATM) in the order that they arrive to
the queue. Figure 3.6 illustrates the relationships of the elements of the system
with the customers appearing as dark circles.
FIGURE 3.6
Descriptive drawing of the automatic teller machine (ATM) system.
Arriving customers
(entities)

ATM queue
(FIFO)

6
Interarrival time
4.8 minutes

7th customer
arrives at
21.0 min.

6th customer
arrives at
16.2 min.

ATM server
(resource)

Departing
customers
(entities)

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Our objective in building a spreadsheet simulation model of the ATM system

is to estimate the average amount of time the 25 customers will spend waiting in
the queue and the average amount of time the customers will spend in the system.
To accomplish our objective, the spreadsheet will need to generate random
numbers and random variates, to contain the logic that controls how customers are
processed by the system, and to compute an estimate of system performance measures. The spreadsheet simulation is shown in Table 3.2 and is divided into three
main sections: Arrivals to ATM, ATM Processing Time, and ATM Simulation
Logic. The Arrivals to ATM and ATM Processing Time provide the foundation for
the simulation, while the ATM Simulation Logic contains the spreadsheet programming that mimics customers owing through the ATM system. The last row
of the Time in Queue column and the Time in System column under the ATM
Simulation Logic section contains one observation of the average time customers
wait in the queue, 1.94 minutes, and one observation of their average time in the
system, 4.26 minutes. The values were computed by averaging the 25 customer
time values in the respective columns.
Do you think customer number 17 (see the Customer Number column)
became upset over having to wait in the queue for 6.11 minutes to conduct a
0.43 minute transaction at the ATM (see the Time in Queue column and the
Service Time column under ATM Simulation Logic)? Has something like this
ever happened to you in real life? Simulation can realistically mimic the behavior
of a system. More time will be spent interpreting the results of our spreadsheet
simulation after we understand how it was put together.

3.5.1 Simulating Random Variates

The interarrival time is the elapsed time between customer arrivals to the ATM.
This time changes according to the exponential distribution with a mean of
3.0 minutes. That is, the time that elapses between one customer arrival and the
next is not the same from one customer to the next but averages out to be 3.0 minutes. This is illustrated in Figure 3.6 in that the interarrival time between customers 7 and 8 is much smaller than the interarrival time of 4.8 minutes between
customers 6 and 7. The service time at the ATM is also a random variable following the exponential distribution and averages 2.4 minutes. To simulate this stochastic system, a random number generator is needed to produce observations
(random variates) from the exponential distribution. The inverse transformation
method was used in Section 3.4.2 just for this purpose.
The transformation equation is
X i = ln (1 Ui )

for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , 25

where Xi represents the ith value realized from the exponential distribution with
mean , and Ui is the ith random number drawn from a uniform(0,1) distribution.
The i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , 25 indicates that we will compute 25 values from the transformation equation. However, we need to have two different versions of this equation
to generate the two sets of 25 exponentially distributed random variates needed to
simulate 25 customers because the mean interarrival time of  3.0 minutes is different than the mean service time of  2.4 minutes. Let X1i denote the interarrival

Stream 1
(Z 1i )

3
66
109
116
7
22
81
40
75
42
117
28
79
126
89
80
19
18
125
68
23
102
97
120
91
122

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

ATM Processing Time

0.516
0.852
0.906
0.055
0.172
0.633
0.313
0.586
0.328
0.914
0.219
0.617
0.984
0.695
0.625
0.148
0.141
0.977
0.531
0.180
0.797
0.758
0.938
0.711
0.953

2.18
5.73
7.09
0.17
0.57
3.01
1.13
2.65
1.19
7.36
0.74
2.88
12.41
3.56
2.94
0.48
0.46
11.32
2.27
0.60
4.78
4.26
8.34
3.72
9.17

122
5
108
95
78
105
32
35
98
13
20
39
54
113
72
107
74
21
60
111
30
121
112
51
50
29
0.039
0.844
0.742
0.609
0.820
0.250
0.273
0.766
0.102
0.156
0.305
0.422
0.883
0.563
0.836
0.578
0.164
0.469
0.867
0.234
0.945
0.875
0.398
0.391
0.227

0.10
4.46
3.25
2.25
4.12
0.69
0.77
3.49
0.26
0.41
0.87
1.32
5.15
1.99
4.34
2.07
0.43
1.52
4.84
0.64
6.96
4.99
1.22
1.19
0.62

Random Interarrival
Random Service
Number
Time
Stream 2 Number
Time
(U 1i )
(X1i )
(Z 2i )
(U 2i )
(X2i )

Arrivals to ATM

ATM Simulation Logic

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

2.18
7.91
15.00
15.17
15.74
18.75
19.88
22.53
23.72
31.08
31.82
34.70
47.11
50.67
53.61
54.09
54.55
65.87
68.14
68.74
73.52
77.78
86.12
89.84
99.01

2.18
7.91
15.00
18.25
20.50
24.62
25.31
26.08
29.57
31.08
31.82
34.70
47.11
52.26
54.25
58.59
60.66
65.87
68.14
72.98
73.62
80.58
86.12
89.84
99.01

0.10
4.46
3.25
2.25
4.12
0.69
0.77
3.49
0.26
0.41
0.87
1.32
5.15
1.99
4.34
2.07
0.43
1.52
4.84
0.64
6.96
4.99
1.22
1.19
0.62

2.28
12.37
18.25
20.50
24.62
25.31
26.08
29.57
29.83
31.49
32.69
36.02
52.26
54.25
58.59
60.66
61.09
67.39
72.98
73.62
80.58
85.57
87.34
91.03
99.63
Average

0.00
0.00
0.00
3.08
4.76
5.87
5.43
3.55
5.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.59
0.64
4.50
6.11
0.00
0.00
4.24
0.10
2.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.94

0.10
4.46
3.25
5.33
8.88
6.56
6.20
7.04
6.11
0.41
0.87
1.32
5.15
3.58
4.98
6.57
6.54
1.52
4.84
4.88
7.06
7.79
1.22
1.19
0.62
4.26

Customer Arrival Begin Service Service

Departure
Time in
Time in
Number
Time
Time
Time
Time
Queue
System
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5) = (3) + (4) (6) = (3) (2) (7) = (5) (2)

TABLE 3.2 Spreadsheet Simulation of Automatic Teller Machine (ATM)

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time and X2i denote the service time generated for the ith customer simulated in the
system. The equation for transforming a random number into an interarrival time
observation from the exponential distribution with mean  3.0 minutes becomes
X1i = 3.0 ln (1 U 1i )

for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , 25

where U 1i denotes the ith value drawn from the random number generator using
Stream 1. This equation is used in the Arrivals to ATM section of Table 3.2 under
the Interarrival Time (X1i ) column.
The equation for transforming a random number into an ATM service time observation from the exponential distribution with mean  2.4 minutes becomes
X2i = 2.4 ln (1 U 2i )

for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , 25

where U 2i denotes the ith value drawn from the random number generator using
Stream 2. This equation is used in the ATM Processing Time section of Table 3.2
under the Service Time (X2i ) column.
Lets produce the sequence of U 1i values that feeds the transformation equation (X1i ) for interarrival times using a linear congruential generator (LCG)
similar to the one used in Table 3.1. The equations are
Z 1i = (21Z 1i1 + 3) mod(128)
U 1i = Z 1i /128
for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , 25
The authors dened Stream 1s starting or seed value to be 3. So we will use
Z 10 = 3 to kick off this stream of 25 random numbers. These equations are used
in the Arrivals to ATM section of Table 3.2 under the Stream 1 (Z 1i ) and Random
Number (U 1i ) columns.
Likewise, we will produce the sequence of U 2i values that feeds the transformation equation (X2i ) for service times using
Z 2i = (21Z 2i1 + 3) mod(128)
U 2i = Z 2i /128
for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , 25
and will specify a starting seed value of Z 20 = 122, Stream 2s seed value, to kick
off the second stream of 25 random numbers. These equations are used in the
ATM Processing Time section of Table 3.2 under the Stream 2 (Z 2i ) and Random
Number (U 2i ) columns.
The spreadsheet presented in Table 3.2 illustrates 25 random variates for both
the interarrival time, column (X1i ), and service time, column (X2i ). All time
values are given in minutes in Table 3.2. To be sure we pull this together correctly,
lets compute a couple of interarrival times with mean  3.0 minutes and
compare them to the values given in Table 3.2.
Given Z 10 = 3
Z 11 = (21Z 10 + 3) mod(128) = (21(3) + 3) mod(128)
= (66) mod(128) = 66
U 11 = Z 11 /128 = 66/128 = 0.516
X11 = ln (1 U 11 ) = 3.0 ln (1 0.516) = 2.18 minutes

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FIGURE 3.7
Microsoft Excel
snapshot of the ATM
spreadsheet
illustrating the
equations for the
Arrivals to ATM
section.

The value of 2.18 minutes is the rst value appearing under the column,
Interarrival Time (X1i ). To compute the next interarrival time value X12 , we start
by using the value of Z 11 to compute Z 12 .
Given Z 11 = 66
Z 12 = (21Z 11 + 3) mod(128) = (21(66) + 3) mod(128) = 109
U 12 = Z 12 /128 = 109/128 = 0.852
X12 = 3 ln (1 U 12 ) = 3.0 ln (1 0.852) = 5.73 minutes
Figure 3.7 illustrates how the equations were programmed in Microsoft Excel for
the Arrivals to ATM section of the spreadsheet. Note that the U 1i and X1i values
in Table 3.2 are rounded to three and two places to the right of the decimal,
respectively. The same rounding rule is used for U 2i and X2i .
It would be useful for you to verify a few of the service time values with
mean  2.4 minutes appearing in Table 3.2 using
Z 20 = 122
Z 2i = (21Z 2i1 + 3) mod(128)
U 2i = Z 2i /128
X2i = 2.4 ln (1 U 2i )
for i = 1, 2, 3, . . .
The equations started out looking a little difcult to manipulate but turned out
not to be so bad when we put some numbers in them and organized them in a
spreadsheetthough it was a bit tedious. The important thing to note here is that
although it is transparent to the user, ProModel uses a very similar method to
produce exponentially distributed random variates, and you now understand how
it is done.

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The LCG just given has a maximum cycle length of 128 random numbers
(you may want to verify this), which is more than enough to generate 25 interarrival time values and 25 service time values for this simulation. However, it is a
poor random number generator compared to the one used by ProModel. It was
chosen because it is easy to program into a spreadsheet and to compute by hand to
facilitate our understanding. The biggest difference between it and the random
number generator in ProModel is that the ProModel random number generator
manipulates much larger numbers to pump out a much longer stream of numbers
that pass all statistical tests for randomness.
Before moving on, lets take a look at why we chose Z 10 = 3 and Z 20 = 122.
Our goal was to make sure that we did not use the same uniform(0,1) random
number to generate both an interarrival time and a service time. If you look
carefully at Table 3.2, you will notice that the seed value Z 20 = 122 is the Z 125
value from random number Stream 1. Stream 2 was merely dened to start where
Stream 1 ended. Thus our spreadsheet used a unique random number to generate
each interarrival and service time. Now lets add the necessary logic to our
spreadsheet to conduct the simulation of the ATM system.

3.5.2 Simulating Dynamic, Stochastic Systems

The heart of the simulation is the generation of the random variates that drive the
stochastic events in the simulation. However, the random variates are simply a list
of numbers at this point. The spreadsheet section labeled ATM Simulation Logic
in Table 3.2 is programmed to coordinate the execution of the events to mimic the
processing of customers through the ATM system. The simulation program must
keep up with the passage of time to coordinate the events. The word dynamic
appearing in the title for this section refers to the fact that the simulation tracks the
passage of time.
The rst column under the ATM Simulation Logic section of Table 3.2,
labeled Customer Number, is simply to keep a record of the order in which the
25 customers are processed, which is FIFO. The numbers appearing in parentheses under each column heading are used to illustrate how different columns are
added or subtracted to compute the values appearing in the simulation.
The Arrival Time column denotes the moment in time at which each customer
arrives to the ATM system. The rst customer arrives to the system at time 2.18
minutes. This is the rst interarrival time value (X11 = 2.18) appearing in the
Arrival to ATM section of the spreadsheet table. The second customer arrives to the
system at time 7.91 minutes. This is computed by taking the arrival time of the rst
customer of 2.18 minutes and adding to it the next interarrival time of X12 = 5.73
minutes that was generated in the Arrival to ATM section of the spreadsheet table.
The arrival time of the second customer is 2.18 + 5.73  7.91 minutes. The
process continues with the third customer arriving at 7.91 + 7.09  15.00 minutes.
The trickiest piece to program into the spreadsheet is the part that determines
the moment in time at which customers begin service at the ATM after waiting in
the queue. Therefore, we will skip over the Begin Service Time column for now
and come back to it after we understand how the other columns are computed.

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The Service Time column simply records the simulated amount of time
required for the customer to complete their transaction at the ATM. These values
are copies of the service time X2i values generated in the ATM Processing Time
section of the spreadsheet.
The Departure Time column records the moment in time at which a customer
departs the system after completing their transaction at the ATM. To compute the
time at which a customer departs the system, we take the time at which the customer gained access to the ATM to begin service, column (3), and add to that the
length of time the service required, column (4). For example, the rst customer
gained access to the ATM to begin service at 2.18 minutes, column (3). The service time for the customer was determined to be 0.10 minutes in column (4). So,
the customer departs 0.10 minutes later or at time 2.18 + 0.10  2.28 minutes.
This customers short service time must be because they forgot their PIN number
and could not conduct their transaction.
The Time in Queue column records how long a customer waits in the queue
before gaining access to the ATM. To compute the time spent in the queue, we
take the time at which the ATM began serving the customer, column (3), and subtract from that the time at which the customer arrived to the system, column (2).
The fourth customer arrives to the system at time 15.17 and begins getting service
from the ATM at 18.25 minutes; thus, the fourth customers time in the queue is
18.25 15.17  3.08 minutes.
The Time in System column records how long a customer was in the system.
To compute the time spent in the system, we subtract the customers departure
time, column (5), from the customers arrival time, column (2). The fth customer
arrives to the system at 15.74 minutes and departs the system at 24.62 minutes.
Therefore, this customer spent 24.62 15.74  8.88 minutes in the system.
Now lets go back to the Begin Service Time column, which records the time
at which a customer begins to be served by the ATM. The very rst customer to
arrive to the system when it opens for service advances directly to the ATM. There
is no waiting time in the queue; thus the value recorded for the time that the rst
customer begins service at the ATM is the customers arrival time. With the
exception of the rst customer to arrive to the system, we have to capture the logic
that a customer cannot begin service at the ATM until the previous customer using
the ATM completes his or her transaction. One way to do this is with an IF statement as follows:
IF (Current Customer's Arrival Time < Previous Customer's
Departure Time)
THEN (Current Customer's Begin Service Time = Previous Customer's
Departure Time)
ELSE (Current Customer's Begin Service Time = Current Customer's
Arrival Time)

Figure 3.8 illustrates how the IF statement was programmed in Microsoft

Excel. The format of the Excel IF statement is
IF (logical test, use this value if test is true, else use this
value if test is false)

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FIGURE 3.8
Microsoft Excel
snapshot of the ATM
spreadsheet
illustrating the IF
statement for the
Begin Service Time
column.

The Excel spreadsheet cell L10 (column L, row 10) in Figure 3.8 is the Begin
Service Time for the second customer to arrive to the system and is programmed
with IF(K10<N9,N9,K10). Since the second customers arrival time (Excel cell
K10) is not less than the rst customers departure time (Excel cell N9), the logical
test evaluates to false and the second customers time to begin service is set to his
or her arrival time (Excel cell K10). The fourth customer shown in Figure 3.8 provides an example of when the logical test evaluates to true, which results in the
fourth customer beginning service when the third customer departs the ATM.

3.5.3 Simulation Replications and Output Analysis

The spreadsheet model makes a nice simulation of the rst 25 customers to arrive
to the ATM system. And we have a simulation output observation of 1.94 minutes
that could be used as an estimate for the average time that the 25 customers waited
in the queue (see the last value under the Time in Queue column, which represents
the average of the 25 individual customer queue times). We also have a simulation
output observation of 4.26 minutes that could be used as an estimate for the
average time the 25 customers were in the system. These results represent only
one possible value of each performance measure. Why? If at least one input variable to the simulation model is random, then the output of the simulation model
will also be random. The interarrival times of customers to the ATM system and
their service times are random variables. Thus the output of the simulation model
of the ATM system is also a random variable. Before we bet that the average time
customers spend in the system each day is 4.26 minutes, we may want to run the
simulation model again with a new sample of interarrival times and service times
to see what happens. This would be analogous to going to the real ATM on a second day to replicate our observing the rst 25 customers processed to compute a
second observation of the average time that the 25 customers spend in the system.
In simulation, we can accomplish this by changing the values of the seed numbers
used for our random number generator.

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TABLE 3.3 Summary of ATM System Simulation Output

Replication

Average Time in Queue

Average Time in System

1
2
Average

1.94 minutes
0.84 minutes
1.39 minutes

4.26 minutes
2.36 minutes
3.31 minutes

Changing the seed values Z 10 and Z 20 causes the spreadsheet program to

recompute all values in the spreadsheet. When we change the seed values Z 10 and
Z 20 appropriately, we produce another replication of the simulation. When we run
replications of the simulation, we are driving the simulation with a set of random
numbers never used by the simulation before. This is analogous to the fact that the arrival pattern of customers to the real ATM and their transaction times at the ATM will
not likely be the same from one day to the next. If Z 10 = 29 and Z 20 = 92 are used
to start the random number generator for the ATM simulation model, a new replication of the simulation will be computed that produces an average time in queue of
0.84 minutes and an average time in system of 2.36 minutes. Review question number eight at the end of the chapter which asks you to verify this second replication.
Table 3.3 contains the results from the two replications. Obviously, the results
from this second replication are very different than those produced by the rst
replication. Good thing we did not make bets on how much time customers spend
in the system based on the output of the simulation for the rst replication only. Statistically speaking, we should get a better estimate of the average time customers
spend in queue and the average time they are in the system if we combine the results
from the two replications into an overall average. Doing so yields an estimate of
1.39 minutes for the average time in queue and an estimate of 3.31 minutes for the
average time in system (see Table 3.3). However, the large variation in the output
of the two simulation replications indicates that more replications are needed to get
reasonably accurate estimates. How many replications are enough? You will know
how to answer the question upon completing Chapter 9.
While spreadsheet technology is effective for conducting Monte Carlo simulations and simulations of simple dynamic systems, it is ineffective and inefcient
as a simulation tool for complex systems. Discrete-event simulation software
technology was designed especially for mimicking the behavior of complex systems and is the subject of Chapter 4.

3.6 Summary
Modeling random behavior begins with transforming the output produced by a
random number generator into observations (random variates) from an appropriate statistical distribution. The values of the random variates are combined with
logical operators in a computer program to compute output that mimics the performance behavior of stochastic systems. Performance estimates for stochastic

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simulations are obtained by calculating the average value of the performance

metric across several replications of the simulation. Models can realistically
simulate a variety of systems.

3.7 Review Questions

1. What is the difference between a stochastic model and a deterministic
model in terms of the input variables and the way results are interpreted?
2. Give a statistical description of the numbers produced by a random
number generator.
3. What are the two statistical properties that random numbers must
satisfy?
4. Given these two LCGs:
Zi = (9Z i1 + 3) mod(32)
Zi = (12Z i1 + 5) mod(32)
a. Which LCG will achieve its maximum cycle length? Answer the
question without computing any Z i values.
b. Compute Z1 through Z5 from a seed of 29 (Z0 = 29) for the
second LCG.
5. What is a random variate, and how are random variates generated?
6. Apply the inverse transformation method to generate three variates from
the following distributions using U1 = 0.10, U2 = 0.53, and U3 = 0.15.
a. Probability density function:

1
for x
f (x) =

0
elsewhere
where = 7 and = 4.
b. Probability mass function:

x
p(x) = P(X = x) = 15

for x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
elsewhere

7. How would a random number generator be used to simulate a 12 percent

chance of rejecting a part because it is defective?
8. Reproduce the spreadsheet simulation of the ATM system presented
in Section 3.5. Set the random numbers seeds Z 10 = 29 and Z 20 = 92
to compute the average time customers spend in the queue and in the
system.
a. Verify that the average time customers spend in the queue and in the
system match the values given for the second replication in Table 3.3.

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b. Verify that the resulting random number Stream 1 and random

number Stream 2 are completely different than the corresponding
streams in Table 3.2. Is this a requirement for a new replication of
the simulation?

References
Banks, Jerry; John S. Carson II; Barry L. Nelson; and David M. Nicol. Discrete-Event
System Simulation. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2001.
Hoover, Stewart V., and Ronald F. Perry. Simulation: A Problem-Solving Approach.
Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1989.
Johnson, R. A. Miller and Freunds Probability and Statistics for Engineers. 5th ed.
Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1994.
Law, Averill M., and David W. Kelton. Simulation Modeling and Analysis. New York:
McGraw-Hill, 2000.
LEcuyer, P. Random Number Generation. In Handbook of Simulation: Principles,
Methodology, Advances, Applications, and Practice, ed. J. Banks, pp. 93137.
New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
Pooch, Udo W., and James A. Wall. Discrete Event Simulation: A Practical Approach.
Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 1993.
Pritsker, A. A. B. Introduction to Simulation and SLAM II. 4th ed. New York: John Wiley
& Sons, 1995.
Ross, Sheldon M. A Course in Simulation. New York: Macmillan, 1990.
Shannon, Robert E. System Simulation: The Art and Science. Englewood Cliffs, NJ:
Prentice Hall, 1975.
Thesen, Arne, and Laurel E. Travis. Simulation for Decision Making. Minneapolis, MN:
West Publishing, 1992.
Widman, Lawrence E.; Kenneth A. Loparo; and Norman R. Nielsen. Articial Intelligence,
Simulation, and Modeling. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1989.

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DISCRETE-EVENT
SIMULATION

When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem begins to resemble a
nail.
Abraham Maslow

4.1 Introduction
Building on the foundation provided by Chapter 3 on how random numbers and
random variates are used to simulate stochastic systems, the focus of this chapter
is on discrete-event simulation, which is the main topic of this book. A discreteevent simulation is one in which changes in the state of the simulation model
occur at discrete points in time as triggered by events. The events in the automatic
teller machine (ATM) simulation example of Chapter 3 that occur at discrete
points in time are the arrivals of customers to the ATM queue and the completion
of their transactions at the ATM. However, you will learn in this chapter that the
spreadsheet simulation of the ATM system in Chapter 3 was not technically executed as a discrete-event simulation.
This chapter rst denes what a discrete-event simulation is compared to a
continuous simulation. Next the chapter summarizes the basic technical issues related to discrete-event simulation to facilitate your understanding of how to effectively use the tool. Questions that will be answered include these:

How does discrete-event simulation work?

What do commercial simulation software packages provide?
What are the differences between simulation languages and simulators?
What is the future of simulation technology?

A manual dynamic, stochastic, discrete-event simulation of the ATM example

system from Chapter 3 is given to further illustrate what goes on inside this type
of simulation.
71

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4.2 Discrete-Event versus Continuous Simulation

Commonly, simulations are classied according to the following characteristics:
Static or dynamic
Stochastic or deterministic
Discrete-event or continuous
In Chapter 3 we discussed the differences between the rst two sets of characteristics. Now we direct our attention to discrete-event versus continuous simulations. A discrete-event simulation is one in which state changes occur at discrete
points in time as triggered by events. Typical simulation events might include

The arrival of an entity to a workstation.

The failure of a resource.
The completion of an activity.
The end of a shift.

State changes in a model occur when some event happens. The state of the model
becomes the collective state of all the elements in the model at a particular point
in time. State variables in a discrete-event simulation are referred to as discretechange state variables. A restaurant simulation is an example of a discrete-event
simulation because all of the state variables in the model, such as the number of
customers in the restaurant, are discrete-change state variables (see Figure 4.1).
Most manufacturing and service systems are typically modeled using discreteevent simulation.
In continuous simulation, state variables change continuously with respect to
time and are therefore referred to as continuous-change state variables. An example of a continuous-change state variable is the level of oil in an oil tanker that is
being either loaded or unloaded, or the temperature of a building that is controlled
by a heating and cooling system. Figure 4.2 compares a discrete-change state
variable and a continuous-change state variable as they vary over time.
FIGURE 4.1
Discrete events cause
discrete state changes.

Number of
customers
in restaurant
3
2

Time
Start
Simulation

Event 1
(customer
arrives)

Event 2
(customer
arrives)

Event 3
(customer
departs)

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FIGURE 4.2
Comparison of a
discrete-change state
variable and a
continuous-change
state variable.

Continuous-change
state variable

Value

Discrete-change
state variable

Time

Continuous simulation products use either differential equations or difference equations to dene the rates of change in state variables over time.

4.2.1 Differential Equations

The change that occurs in some continuous-change state variables is expressed in
terms of the derivatives of the state variables. Equations involving derivatives of
a state variable are referred to as differential equations. The state variable v, for
example, might change as a function of both v and time t:
dv(t)
= v 2 (t) + t 2
dt
We then need a second equation to dene the initial condition of v:
v(0) = K
On a computer, numerical integration is used to calculate the change in a
particular response variable over time. Numerical integration is performed at the
end of successive small time increments referred to as steps. Numerical analysis
techniques, such as Runge-Kutta integration, are used to integrate the differential
equations numerically for each incremental time step. One or more threshold values
for each continuous-change state variable are usually dened that determine when
some action is to be triggered, such as shutting off a valve or turning on a pump.

4.2.2 Difference Equations

Sometimes a continuous-change state variable can be modeled using difference
equations. In such instances, the time is decomposed into periods of length t. An
algebraic expression is then used to calculate the value of the state variable at the
end of period k + 1 based on the value of the state variable at the end of period k.
For example, the following difference equation might be used to express the rate
of change in the state variable v as a function of the current value of v, a rate of
change (r), and the length of the time period (
t):
v(k + 1) = v(k) + r
t

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Batch processing in which uids are pumped into and out of tanks can often be
modeled using difference equations.

4.2.3 Combined Continuous and Discrete Simulation

Many simulation software products provide both discrete-event and continuous
simulation capabilities. This enables systems that have both discrete-event and
continuous characteristics to be modeled, resulting in a hybrid simulation. Most
processing systems that have continuous-change state variables also have discretechange state variables. For example, a truck or tanker arrives at a ll station (a
discrete event) and begins lling a tank (a continuous process).
Four basic interactions occur between discrete- and continuous-change
variables:
1. A continuous variable value may suddenly increase or decrease as the
result of a discrete event (like the replenishment of inventory in an
inventory model).
2. The initiation of a discrete event may occur as the result of reaching a
threshold value in a continuous variable (like reaching a reorder point in
an inventory model).
3. The change rate of a continuous variable may be altered as the result of a
discrete event (a change in inventory usage rate as the result of a sudden
change in demand).
4. An initiation or interruption of change in a continuous variable may
occur as the result of a discrete event (the replenishment or depletion of
inventory initiates or terminates a continuous change of the continuous
variable).

4.3 How Discrete-Event Simulation Works

Most simulation software, including ProModel, presents a process-oriented world
view to the user for dening models. This is the way most humans tend to think
about systems that process entities. When describing a system, it is natural to do
so in terms of the process ow. Entities begin processing at activity A then move
on to activity B and so on. In discrete-event simulation, these process ow denitions are translated into a sequence of events for running the simulation: rst
event 1 happens (an entity begins processing at activity A), then event 2 occurs
(it completes processing at activity A), and so on. Events in simulation are of two
types: scheduled and conditional, both of which create the activity delays in the
simulation to replicate the passage of time.
A scheduled event is one whose time of occurrence can be determined
beforehand and can therefore be scheduled in advance. Assume, for example, that
an activity has just begun that will take X amount of time, where X is a normally
distributed random variable with a mean of 5 minutes and a standard deviation of

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1.2 minutes. At the start of the activity, a normal random variate is generated
based on these parameters, say 4.2 minutes, and an activity completion event is
scheduled for that time into the future. Scheduled events are inserted chronologically into an event calendar to await the time of their occurrence. Events that
occur at predened intervals theoretically all could be determined in advance and
therefore be scheduled at the beginning of the simulation. For example, entities
arriving every ve minutes into the model could all be scheduled easily at the start
of the simulation. Rather than preschedule all events at once that occur at a set frequency, however, they are scheduled only when the next occurrence must be determined. In the case of a periodic arrival, the next arrival would not be scheduled
until the current scheduled arrival is actually pulled from the event calendar for
processing. This postponement until the latest possible moment minimizes the
size of the event calendar and eliminates the necessity of knowing in advance how
many events to schedule when the length of the simulation may be unknown.
Conditional events are triggered by a condition being met rather than by the
passage of time. An example of a conditional event might be the capturing of a
resource that is predicated on the resource being available. Another example
would be an order waiting for all of the individual items making up the order to be
assembled. In these situations, the event time cannot be known beforehand, so
the pending event is simply placed into a waiting list until the conditions can be
satised. Often multiple pending events in a list are waiting for the same condition. For example, multiple entities might be waiting to use the same resource
when it becomes available. Internally, the resource would have a waiting list for all
items currently waiting to use it. While in most cases events in a waiting list are
processed rst-in, rst-out (FIFO), items could be inserted and removed using a
number of different criteria. For example, items may be inserted according to item
priority but be removed according to earliest due date.
Events, whether scheduled or conditional, trigger the execution of logic that is
associated with that event. For example, when an entity frees a resource, the state
and statistical variables for the resource are updated, the graphical animation is updated, and the input waiting list for the resource is examined to see what activity to
respond to next. Any new events resulting from the processing of the current event
are inserted into either the event calendar or another appropriate waiting list.
In real life, events can occur simultaneously so that multiple entities can be
doing things at the same instant in time. In computer simulation, however, especially when running on a single processor, events can be processed only one at a time
even though it is the same instant in simulated time. As a consequence, a method or
rule must be established for processing events that occur at the exact same simulated
time. For some special cases, the order in which events are processed at the current
simulation time might be signicant. For example, an entity that frees a resource and
then tries to immediately get the same resource might have an unfair advantage over
other entities that might have been waiting for that particular resource.
In ProModel, the entity, downtime, or other item that is currently being
processed is allowed to continue processing as far as it can at the current simulation time. That means it continues processing until it reaches either a conditional

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FIGURE 4.3

Start

Logic diagram of how

discrete-event
simulation works.
Create simulation
database and schedule
initial events.

Advance clock to
next event time.

Termination
event?

Yes

Update statistics
and generate
output report.

No
Process event and
schedule any new
events.

Stop

Update statistics,
state variables,
and animation.

Yes

Any conditional
events?
No

event that cannot be satised or a timed delay that causes a future event to be
scheduled. It is also possible that the object simply nishes all of the processing
dened for it and, in the case of an entity, exits the system. As an object is being
processed, any resources that are freed or other entities that might have been created as byproducts are placed in an action list and are processed one at a time in a
similar fashion after the current object reaches a stopping point. To deliberately

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Discrete-Event Simulation

suspend the current object in order to allow items in the action list to be processed,
a zero delay time can be specied for the current object. This puts the current item
into the future events list (event calendar) for later processing, even though it is
still processed at the current simulation time.
When all scheduled and conditional events have been processed that are
possible at the current simulation time, the clock advances to the next scheduled
event and the process continues. When a termination event occurs, the simulation
ends and statistical reports are generated. The ongoing cycle of processing scheduled and conditional events, updating state and statistical variables, and creating
new events constitutes the essence of discrete-event simulation (see Figure 4.3).

4.4 A Manual Discrete-Event Simulation Example

To illustrate how discrete-event simulation works, a manual simulation is presented
of the automatic teller machine (ATM) system of Chapter 3. Customers arrive to
use an automatic teller machine (ATM) at a mean interarrival time of 3.0 minutes
exponentially distributed. When customers arrive to the system, they join a queue
to wait for their turn on the ATM. The queue has the capacity to hold an innite
number of customers. The ATM itself has a capacity of one (only one customer at a
time can be processed at the ATM). Customers spend an average of 2.4 minutes exponentially distributed at the ATM to complete their transactions, which is called
the service time at the ATM. Assuming that the simulation starts at time zero, simulate the ATM system for its rst 22 minutes of operation and estimate the expected
waiting time for customers in the queue (the average time customers wait in line for
the ATM) and the expected number of customers waiting in the queue (the average
number of customers waiting in the queue during the simulated time period). If you
are wondering why 22 minutes was selected as the simulation run length, it is because 22 minutes of manual simulation will nicely t on one page of the textbook.
An entity ow diagram of the ATM system is shown in Figure 4.4.

4.4.1 Simulation Model Assumptions

We did not list our assumptions for simulating the ATM system back in Chapter 3
although it would have been a good idea to have done so. In any simulation,
FIGURE 4.4
Entity ow diagram for example automatic teller machine (ATM) system.
Arriving customers
(entities)

ATM queue
(FIFO)

ATM server
(resource)

Departing
customers
(entities)

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certain assumptions must be made where information is not clear or complete.

Therefore, it is important that assumptions be clearly documented. The assumptions we will be making for this simulation are as follows:
There are no customers in the system initially, so the queue is empty and
the ATM is idle.
The move time from the queue to the ATM is negligible and therefore
ignored.
Customers are processed from the queue on a rst-in, rst-out (FIFO) basis.
The ATM never experiences failures.

4.4.2 Setting Up the Simulation

A discrete-event simulation does not generate all of the events in advance as was
done in the spreadsheet simulation of Chapter 3. Instead the simulation schedules
the arrival of customer entities to the ATM queue and the departure of customer
entities from the ATM as they occur over time. That is, the simulation calls a
function to obtain an exponentially distributed interarrival time value only when
a new customer entity needs to be scheduled to arrive to the ATM queue. Likewise, the simulation calls a function to obtain an exponentially distributed service
time value at the ATM only after a customer entity has gained access (entry) to the
ATM and the entitys future departure time from the ATM is needed. An event
calendar is maintained to coordinate the processing of the customer arrival and
customer departure events. As arrival and departure event times are created, they
are placed on the event calendar in chronological order. As these events get
processed, state variables (like the contents of a queue) get changed and statistical
accumulators (like the cumulative time in the queue) are updated.
With this overview, lets list the structured components needed to conduct the
manual simulation.
Simulation Clock
As the simulation transitions from one discrete-event to the next, the simulation
clock is fast forwarded to the time that the next event is scheduled to occur. There
is no need for the clock to tick seconds away until reaching the time at which the
next event in the list is scheduled to occur because nothing will happen that
changes the state of the system until the next event occurs. Instead, the simulation
clock advances through a series of time steps. Let ti denote the value of the simulation clock at time step i, for i = 0 to the number of discrete events to process.
Assuming that the simulation starts at time zero, then the initial value of the simulation clock is denoted as t0 = 0. Using this nomenclature, t1 denotes the value
of the simulation clock when the rst discrete event in the list is processed, t2 denotes the value of the simulation clock when the second discrete-event in the list
is processed, and so on.
Entity Attributes
To capture some statistics about the entities being processed through the system,
a discrete-event simulation maintains an array of entity attribute values. Entity

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attributes are characteristics of the entity that are maintained for that entity until
the entity exits the system. For example, to compute the amount of time an entity
waited in a queue location, an attribute is needed to remember when the entity entered the location. For the ATM simulation, one entity attribute is used to remember the customers time of arrival to the system. This entity attribute is called the
Arrival Time attribute. The simulation program computes how long each customer entity waited in the queue by subtracting the time that the customer entity
arrived to the queue from the value of the simulation clock when the customer entity gained access to the ATM.
State Variables
Two discrete-change state variables are needed to track how the status (state) of the
system changes as customer entities arrive in and depart from the ATM system.
Number of Entities in Queue at time step i, NQi.
ATM Statusi to denote if the ATM is busy or idle at time step i.
Statistical Accumulators
The objective of the example manual simulation is to estimate the expected
amount of time customers wait in the queue and the expected number of customers waiting in the queue. The average time customers wait in queue is a simple
average. Computing this requires that we record how many customers passed
through the queue and the amount of time each customer waited in the queue. The
average number of customers in the queue is a time-weighted average, which is
usually called a time average in simulation. Computing this requires that we not
only observe the queues contents during the simulation but that we also measure
the amount of time that the queue maintained each of the observed values. We
record each observed value after it has been multiplied (weighted) by the amount
of time it was maintained.
Heres what the simulation needs to tally at each simulation time step i to
compute the two performance measures at the end of the simulation.
Simple-average time in queue.
Record the number of customer entities processed through the queue,
Total Processed. Note that the simulation may end before all customer
entities in the queue get a turn at the ATM. This accumulator keeps track
of how many customers actually made it through the queue.
For a customer processed through the queue, record the time that it waited
in the queue. This is computed by subtracting the value of the simulation
clock time when the entity enters the queue (stored in the entity attribute
array Arrival Time) from the value of the simulation clock time when the
entity leaves the queue, ti Arrival Time.
Time-average number of customers in the queue.
For the duration of the last time step, which is ti ti1 , and the number of
customer entities in the queue during the last time step, which is NQi1 ,
record the product of ti ti1 and NQi1 . Call the product
(ti ti1 )NQi1 the Time-Weighted Number of Entities in the Queue.

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Events
There are two types of recurring scheduled events that change the state of the system: arrival events and departure events. An arrival event occurs when a customer
entity arrives to the queue. A departure event occurs when a customer entity completes its transaction at the ATM. Each processing of a customer entitys arrival
to the queue includes scheduling the future arrival of the next customer entity to
the ATM queue. Each time an entity gains access to the ATM, its future departure
from the system is scheduled based on its expected service time at the ATM. We
actually need a third event to end the simulation. This event is usually called the
termination event.
To schedule the time at which the next entity arrives to the system, the simulation needs to generate an interarrival time and add it to the current simulation
clock time, ti . The interarrival time is exponentially distributed with a mean of
3.0 minutes for our example ATM system. Assume that the function E(3.0) returns an exponentially distributed random variate with a mean of 3.0 minutes. The
future arrival time of the next customer entity can then be scheduled by using the
equation ti + E(3.0).
The customer service time at the ATM is exponentially distributed with a
mean of 2.4 minutes. The future departure time of an entity gaining access to the
ATM is scheduled by the equation ti + E(2.4).
Event Calendar
The event calendar maintains the list of active events (events that have been
scheduled and are waiting to be processed) in chronological order. The simulation
progresses by removing the rst event listed on the event calendar, setting the
simulation clock, ti , equal to the time at which the event is scheduled to occur, and
processing the event.

4.4.3 Running the Simulation

To run the manual simulation, we need a way to generate exponentially distributed
random variates for interarrival times [the function E(3.0)] and service times [the
function E(2.4)]. Rather than using our calculators to generate a random number
and transform it into an exponentially distributed random variate each time one is
needed for the simulation, lets take advantage of the work we did to build the
spreadsheet simulation of the ATM system in Chapter 3. In Table 3.2 of Chapter 3,
we generated 25 exponentially distributed interarrival times with a mean of
3.0 minutes and 25 exponentially distributed service times with a mean of
2.4 minutes in advance of running the spreadsheet simulation. So when we need a
service time or an interarrival time for our manual simulation, lets use the values
from the Service Time and Interarrival Time columns of Table 3.2 rather than
computing them by hand. Note, however, that we do not need to generate all
random variates in advance for our manual discrete-event simulation (thats one
of its advantages over spreadsheet simulation). We are just using Table 3.2 to
make our manual simulation a little less tedious, and it will be instructive to

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compare the results of the manual simulation with those produced by the spreadsheet simulation.
Notice that Table 3.2 contains a subscript i in the leftmost column. This subscript denotes the customer entity number as opposed to the simulation time step.
We wanted to point this out to avoid any confusion because of the different uses
of the subscript. In fact, you can ignore the subscript in Table 3.2 as you pick values from the Service Time and Interarrival Time columns.
A discrete-event simulation logic diagram for the ATM system is shown in
Figure 4.5 to help us carry out the manual simulation. Table 4.1 presents the results of the manual simulation after processing 12 events using the simulation
logic diagram presented in Figure 4.5. The table tracks the creation and scheduling of events on the event calendar as well as how the state of the system changes
and how the values of the statistical accumulators change as events are processed
from the event calendar. Although Table 4.1 is completely lled in, it was initially
blank until the instructions presented in the simulation logic diagram were executed. As you work through the simulation logic diagram, you should process the
information in Table 4.1 from the rst row down to the last row, one row at a time
(completely lling in a row before going down to the next row). A dash () in a
cell in Table 4.1 signies that the simulation logic diagram does not require you to
update that particular cell at the current simulation time step. An arrow ( ) in a
cell in the table also signies that the simulation logic diagram does not require
you to update that cell at the current time step. However, the arrows serve as a reminder to look up one or more rows above your current position in the table to determine the state of the ATM system. Arrows appear under the Number of Entities
in Queue, NQi column, and ATM Statusi column. The only exception to the use of
dashes or arrows is that we keep a running total in the two Cumulative subcolumns in the table for each time step. Lets get the manual simulation started.
i = 0, t0 = 0. As shown in Figure 4.5, the rst block after the start position
indicates that the model is initialized to its starting conditions. The
simulation time step begins at i = 0. The initial value of the simulation
clock is zero, t0 = 0. The system state variables are set to ATM Status0 
Idle; Number of Entities in Queue, NQ0 = 0; and the Entity Attribute
Array is cleared. This reects the initial conditions of no customer entities
in the queue and an idle ATM. The statistical accumulator Total Processed is
set to zero. There are two different Cumulative variables in Table 4.1: one to
accumulate the time in queue values of ti Arrival Time, and the other to
accumulate the values of the time-weighted number of entities in the queue,
(ti ti1 )NQi1 . Recall that ti Arrival Time is the amount of time that
entities, which gained access to the ATM, waited in queue. Both Cumulative
variables (ti Arrival Time) and (ti ti1 )NQi1 are initialized to zero.
Next, an initial arrival event and termination event are scheduled and placed
under the Scheduled Future Events column. The listing of an event is
formatted as (Entity Number, Event, and Event Time). Entity Number
denotes the customer number that the event pertains to (such as the rst,
second, or third customer). Event is the type of event: a customer arrives, a

82
Yes

Depart

Discrete-event simulation logic diagram for ATM system.

Yes

No

Update Entity Attribute

Array by deleting departed
customer entity from first
position of the array.
Change ATM Statusi to Idle.

Any
customers
in queue?

Update Entity Attribute Array by

deleting departed customer entity
from first position in the array and
shifting waiting customers up.
Subtract 1 from NQi, Number of
Entities in Queue.
Schedule departure event for
customer entity entering the ATM
to occur at time ti + E(2.4).
Update Entities Processed
through Queue statistics to reflect
customer entering ATM.
- Add 1 to Total Processed.
- Compute Time in Queue
value for ti - Arrival Time and
update Cumulative.
Update Time-Weighted Number of
Entities in Queue statistic.
- Compute value for (ti ti 1)NQi 1
and update Cumulative.

End

Update statistics and generate output report.

End

Event
type?

i=i+1

4. DiscreteEvent
Simulation

FIGURE 4.5

No

Arrive

Store current customer

entitys Arrival Time in last
position of Entity Attribute
Array to reflect customer
joining the queue.
Add 1 to NQi, Number of
Entities in Queue.
Update Time-Weighted
Number of Entities in Queue
statistic.
- Compute value for
(ti ti 1)NQi 1 and
update Cumulative.

Is ATM
idle?

Schedule arrival event

for next customer entity
to occur at time ti + E(3).

i=i+1
Update Event Calendar: Insert Scheduled Future Events in chronological order.
Advance Clock, ti, to the Time of the first event on the calendar and process the event.

I. Study Chapters

Schedule departure event for

current customer entity entering
ATM to occur at time ti + E(2.4).
Store current customers
Arrival Time in first position of
Entity Attribute Array.
Change ATM Statusi to Busy.
Update Entities Processed
through Queue statistics to
reflect customer entering ATM.
- Add 1 to Total Processed.
- Record Time in Queue of 0 for
ti - Arrival Time and update
Cumulative.
Update Time-Weighted Number
of Entities in Queue statistic.
- Record value of 0 for
(ti ti 1)NQi 1 and update
Cumulative.

i=i+1

Initialize variables and schedule initial arrival event and termination event (Scheduled Future Events).

i=0

Start
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(1, Arrive,
(_, End,
(1, Depart,
(2, Arrive,
(_, End,
(2, Arrive,
(_, End,
(2, Depart,
(3, Arrive,
(_, End,
(3, Arrive,
(_, End,
(4, Arrive,
(3, Depart,
(_, End,
(5, Arrive,
(3, Depart,
(_, End,
(3, Depart,
(6, Arrive,
(_, End,
(6, Arrive,
(4, Depart,
(_, End,
(7, Arrive,
(4, Depart,
(_, End,

12

11

10

20.50)
22.00)
22.53)
22.00)
22.53)
24.62)

2.18)
22.00)
2.28)
7.91)
22.00)
7.91)
22.00)
12.37)
15.00)
22.00)
15.00)
22.00)
15.17)
18.25)
22.00)
15.74)
18.25)
22.00)
18.25)
18.75)
22.00)
18.75)
20.50)
22.00)
19.88)
20.50)
22.00)

Clock, ti
22.00

20.50

19.88

18.75

18.25

15.74

15.17

15.00

12.37

7.91

2.28

2.18

Event
End

Depart

Arrive

Arrive

Depart

Arrive

Arrive

Arrive

Depart

Arrive

Depart

Arrive

*(4, 15.17)
(5, 15.74)
(6, 18.75)
*(4, 15.17)
(5, 15.74)
(6, 18.75)
(7, 19.88)
*(5, 15.74)
(6, 18.75)
(7, 19.88)

*(3, 15.00)
(4, 15.17)
(5, 15.74)
*(4, 15.17)
(5, 15.74)

*(3, 15.00)
( )
*(3, 15.00)
(4, 15.17)

*(2, 7.91)
( )
*( )
( )

*( )
( )
*(1, 2.18)
( )
*( )
( )

Busy
Idle
Busy

Idle

Busy

ATM Statusi
Idle

Total Processed

Entities Processed
through Queue

4.76

3.08

7.84

7.84

3.08

3.08

3.08

Time-Weighted
Number of Entities
in Queue

3.00

1.86

2.26

0.50

5.02

0.57

13.21

10.21

8.35

6.09

5.59

0.57

(5, Depart, 24.62)

(8, Arrive, 22.53)

(7, Arrive, 19.88)

(4, Depart, 20.50)

(6, Arrive, 18.75)

(4, Arrive, 15.17)

(3, Depart, 18.25)
(5, Arrive, 15.74)

No new events

(3, Arrive, 15.00)

(2, Depart, 12.37)

No new events

(1, Arrive, 2.18)

(_, End,
22.00)
(2, Arrival, 7.91)
(1, Depart, 2.28)

4. DiscreteEvent
Simulation

(4, Depart,
(_, End,
(8, Arrive,
(_, End,
(8, Arrive,
(5, Depart,

Entity Number

Scheduled Future Events

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(Entity Number, Event, Time)

*Entity Using ATM,

array position 1

Entities Waiting in
Queue, array
positions 2, 3, . . .

Entity Attribute
Array (Entity
Number, Arrival
Time)
Number of Entities
in Queue, NQi

Statistical Accumulators

Time in Queue,
ti Arrival Time

System State

Cumulative,
(ti Arrival Time)

Processed Event

(ti ti1)NQi1

Event Calendar

(Entity Number, Event, Time)

TABLE 4.1 Manual Discrete-Event Simulation of ATM System

Cumulative,
(ti ti1)NQi1

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customer departs, or the simulation ends. Time is the future time that the
event is to occur. The event (1, Arrive, 2.18) under the Scheduled Future
Events column prescribes that the rst customer entity is scheduled to arrive
at time 2.18 minutes. The arrival time was generated using the equation
t0 + E(3.0). To obtain the value returned from the function E(3), we went
to Table 3.2, read the rst random variate from the Interarrival Time column
(a value of 2.18 minutes), and added it to the current value of the simulation
clock, t0 = 0. The simulation is to be terminated after 22 minutes. Note the
(__, End, 22.00) under the Scheduled Future Events column. For the
termination event, no value is assigned to Entity Number because it is not
relevant.
i = 1, t1 = 2.18. After the initialization step, the list of scheduled future
events is added to the event calendar in chronological order in preparation
for the next simulation time step i = 1. The simulation clock is fast forwarded
to the time that the next event is scheduled to occur, which is t1 = 2.18
(the arrival time of the rst customer to the ATM queue), and then the event
is processed. Following the simulation logic diagram, arrival events are
processed by rst scheduling the future arrival event for the next customer
entity using the equation t1 + E(3.0) = 2.18 + 5.73 = 7.91 minutes. Note
the value of 5.73 returned by the function E(3.0) is the second random
variate listed under the Interarrival Time column of Table 3.2. This future
event is placed under the Scheduled Future Events column in Table 4.1 as
(2, Arrive, 7.91). Checking the status of the ATM from the previous
simulation time step reveals that the ATM is idle (ATM Status0  Idle).
Therefore, the arriving customer entity immediately ows through the
queue to the ATM to conduct its transaction. The future departure event of
this entity from the ATM is scheduled using the equation t1 + E(2.4) =
2.18 + 0.10 = 2.28 minutes. See (1, Depart, 2.28) under the Scheduled
Future Events column, denoting that the rst customer entity is scheduled to
depart the ATM at time 2.28 minutes. Note that the value of 0.10 returned
by the function E(2.4) is the rst random variate listed under the Service
Time column of Table 3.2. The arriving customer entitys arrival time is
then stored in the rst position of the Entity Attribute Array to signify that it
is being served by the ATM. The ATM Status1 is set to Busy, and the
statistical accumulators for Entities Processed through Queue are updated.
Add 1 to Total Processed and since this entity entered the queue and
immediately advanced to the idle ATM for processing, record zero minutes
in the Time in Queue, t1 Arrival Time, subcolumn and update this
statistics cumulative value. The statistical accumulators for Time-Weighted
Number of Entities in the Queue are updated next. Record zero for
(t1 t0 )NQ0 since there were no entities in queue during the previous time
step, NQ0 = 0, and update this statistics cumulative value. Note the arrow
entered under the Number of Entities in Queue, NQ1 column. Recall
that the arrow is placed there to signify that the number of entities waiting
in the queue has not changed from its previous value.

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i = 2, t2 = 2.28. Following the loop back around to the top of the simulation
logic diagram, we place the two new future events onto the event calendar
in chronological order in preparation for the next simulation time step
i = 2. The simulation clock is fast forwarded to t2 = 2.28, and the
departure event for the rst customer entity arriving to the system is
processed. Given that there are no customers in the queue from the previous
time step, NQ1 = 0 (follow the arrows up to get this value), we simply
remove the departed customer from the rst position of the Entity Attribute
Array and change the status of the ATM to idle, ATM Status2  Idle.
The statistical accumulators do not require updating because there are no
customer entities waiting in the queue or leaving the queue. The dashes ()
entered under the statistical accumulator columns indicate that updates are
not required. No new future events are scheduled.
As before, we follow the loop back to the top of the simulation logic diagram,
and place any new events, of which there are none at the end of time step i = 2,
onto the event calendar in chronological order in preparation for the next simulation time step i = 3. The simulation clock is fast forwarded to t3 = 7.91, and the
arrival of the second customer entity to the ATM queue is processed. Complete the
processing of this event and continue the manual simulation until the termination
event (__, End, 22.00) reaches the top of the event calendar.
As you work through the simulation logic diagram to complete the manual
simulation, you will see that the fourth customer arriving to the system requires
that you use logic from a different path in the diagram. When the fourth customer
entity arrives to the ATM queue, simulation time step i = 6, the ATM is busy
(see ATM Status5) processing customer entity 3s transaction. Therefore, the
fourth customer entity joins the queue and waits to use the ATM. (Dont forget
that it invoked the creation of the fth customers arrival event.) The fourth entitys arrival time of 15.17 minutes is stored in the last position of the Entity Attribute Array in keeping with the rst-in, rst-out (FIFO) rule. The Number of
Entities in Queue, NQ6 , is incremented to 1. Further, the Time-Weighted Number
of Entities in the Queue statistical accumulators are updated by rst computing
(t6 t5 )NQ5 = (15.17 15.00)0 = 0 and then recording the result. Next, this
statistics cumulative value is updated. Customers 5, 6, and 7 also arrive to the
system nding the ATM busy and therefore take their place in the queue to wait
for the ATM.
The fourth customer waited a total of 3.08 minutes in the queue (see the
ti Arrival Time subcolumn) before it gained access to the ATM in time step
i = 8 as the third customer departed. The value of 3.08 minutes in the queue for
the fourth customer computed in time step i = 8 by t8 Arrival Time 
18.25 15.17 = 3.08 minutes. Note that Arrival Time is the time that the fourth
customer arrived to the queue, and that the value is stored in the Entity Attribute
Array.
At time t12 = 22.00 minutes the simulation terminates and tallies the nal
values for the statistical accumulators, indicating that a total of ve customer
entities were processed through the queue. The total amount of time that these ve

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customers waited in the queue is 7.84 minutes. The nal cumulative value for
Time-Weighted Number of Entities in the Queue is 13.21 minutes. Note that at the
end of the simulation, two customers are in the queue (customers 6 and 7) and one
is at the ATM (customer 5). A few quick observations are worth considering
before we discuss how the accumulated values are used to calculate summary statistics for a simulation output report.
This simple and brief (while tedious) manual simulation is relatively easy to
follow. But imagine a system with dozens of processes and dozens of factors inuencing behavior such as downtimes, mixed routings, resource contention, and
others. You can see how essential computers are for performing a simulation of
any magnitude. Computers have no difculty tracking the many relationships and
updating the numerous statistics that are present in most simulations. Equally as
important, computers are not error prone and can perform millions of instructions
per second with absolute accuracy. We also want to point out that the simulation
logic diagram (Figure 4.5) and Table 4.1 were designed to convey the essence of
what happens inside a discrete-event simulation program. When you view a trace
report of a ProModel simulation in Lab Chapter 8 you will see the simularities
between the trace report and Table 4.1. Although the basic process presented is
sound, its efciency could be improved. For example, there is no need to keep
both a scheduled future events list and an event calendar. Instead, future
events are inserted directly onto the event calendar as they are created. We separated them to facilitate our describing the ow of information in the discrete-event
framework.

4.4.4 Calculating Results

When a simulation terminates, statistics that summarize the models behavior are
calculated and displayed in an output report. Many of the statistics reported in a
simulation output report consist of average values, although most software reports
a multitude of statistics including the maximum and minimum values observed
during the simulation. Average values may be either simple averages or time
averages.
Simple-Average Statistic
A simple-average statistic is calculated by dividing the sum of all observation values of a response variable by the number of observations:

n
xi
Simple average = i=1
n
where n is the number of observations and xi is the value of ith observation. Example simple-average statistics include the average time entities spent in the system
(from system entry to system exit), the average time entities spent at a specic
location, or the average time per use for a resource. An average of an observationbased response variable in ProModel is computed as a simple average.

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Discrete-Event Simulation

The average time that customer entities waited in the queue for their turn on
the ATM during the manual simulation reported in Table 4.1 is a simple-average
statistic. Recall that the simulation processed ve customers through the queue.
Let xi denote the amount of time that the i th customer processed spent in the
queue. The average waiting time in queue based on the n = 5 observations is

5
Average time in queue =
=

i=1

xi

0 + 0 + 0 + 3.08 + 4.76
5

7.84 minutes
= 1.57 minutes
5

The values necessary for computing this average are accumulated under the
Entities Processed through Queue columns of the

manual simulation table (see the
last row of Table 4.1 for the cumulative value (ti Arrival Time) = 7.84 and
Total Processed = 5).
Time-Average Statistic
A time-average statistic, sometimes called a time-weighted average, reports the
average value of a response variable weighted by the time duration for each
observed value of the variable:

n
Time average =

i=1 (Ti x i )

where xi denotes the value of the i th observation, Ti denotes the time duration of
the i th observation (the weighting factor), and T denotes the total duration over
which the observations were collected. Example time-average statistics include
the average number of entities in a system, the average number of entities at a location, and the average utilization of a resource. An average of a time-weighted
response variable in ProModel is computed as a time average.
The average number of customer entities waiting in the queue location for
their turn on the ATM during the manual simulation is a time-average statistic.
Figure 4.6 is a plot of the number of customer entities in the queue during the
manual simulation recorded in Table 4.1. The 12 discrete-events manually simulated in Table 4.1 are labeled t1 , t2 , t3 , . . . , t11 , t12 on the plot. Recall that ti denotes the value of the simulation clock at time step i in Table 4.1, and that its initial value is zero, t0 = 0.
Using the notation from the time-average equation just given, the total simulation time illustrated in Figure 4.6 is T = 22 minutes. The Ti denotes the duration of time step i (distance between adjacent discrete-events in Figure 4.6). That
is, Ti = ti ti1 for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , 12. The xi denotes the queues contents
(number of customer entities in the queue) during each Ti time interval. Therefore, xi = NQi1 for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , 12 (recall that in Table 4.1, NQi1 denotes
the number of customer entities in the queue from ti1 to ti ). The time-average

88

t0

T1
2.18

Number of customers in queue

T3
7.91  2.28
5.63

T2
0.1

t3

10

11

12

t4

14

T6
0.17

T5
2.63

13

Simulation time, T
22

T4
12.37  7.91
4.46

Number of customers in the queue during the manual simulation.

t1 t2

T8
2.51

17

T7
0.57

16

t5 t6 t7

15

t8

18

20

T12
1.50

19

t11

21

t12

22

4. DiscreteEvent
Simulation

FIGURE 4.6

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89

number of customer entities in the queue (lets call it Average NQ) is

12
Average NQ =

i=1 (Ti xi )

12
=

i=1 (ti

ti1 )NQi1
T

Average NQ =

(2.18)(0) + (0.1)(0) + (5.63)(0) + (4.46)(0) + (2.63)(0) + (0.17)(0) + (0.57)(1) + (2.51)(2) + + (1.5)(2)

22

Average NQ =

13.21
= 0.60 customers
22

12
(ti ti1 )NQi1 )
You may recognize that the numerator of this equation ( i=1
calculates the area under the plot of the queues contents during the simulation
(Figure 4.6). The values necessary for computing this area are accumulated under
the Time-Weighted Number of Entities in Queue column of Table 4.1 (see the
Cumulative value of 13.21 in the tables last row).

4.4.5 Issues
Even though this example is a simple and somewhat crude simulation, it provides
a good illustration of basic simulation issues that need to be addressed when conducting a simulation study. First, note that the simulation start-up conditions can
bias the output statistics. Since the system started out empty, queue content statistics are slightly less than what they might be if we began the simulation with
customers already in the system. Second, note that we ran the simulation for only
22 minutes before calculating the results. Had we ran longer, it is very likely that
the long-run average time in the queue would have been somewhat different (most
likely greater) than the time from the short run because the simulation did not
have a chance to reach a steady state.
These are the kinds of issues that should be addressed whenever running a
simulation. The modeler must carefully analyze the output and understand the signicance of the results that are given. This example also points to the need for
considering beforehand just how long a simulation should be run. These issues are
addressed in Chapters 9 and 10.

4.5 Commercial Simulation Software

While a simulation model may be programmed using any development language
such as C++ or Java, most models are built using commercial simulation software
such as ProModel. Commercial simulation software consists of several modules
for performing different functions during simulation modeling. Typical modules
are shown in Figure 4.7.

4.5.1 Modeling Interface Module

A modeler denes a model using an input or modeling interface module. This
module provides graphical tools, dialogs, and other text editing capabilities for

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FIGURE 4.7
Typical components of
simulation software.

Modeling
interface

Modeling
processor

Simulation
interface

Model Simulation
data
data

Simulation
processor

Output
interface

Output
data

Output
processor

Simulation
processor

entering and editing model information. External les used in the simulation are
specied here as well as run-time options (number of replications and so on).

4.5.2 Model Processor

When a completed model is run, the model processor takes the model database,
and any other external data les that are used as input data, and creates a simulation database. This involves data translation and possibly language compilation.
This data conversion is performed because the model database and external les
are generally in a format that cannot be used efciently by the simulation processor during the simulation. Some simulation languages are interpretive, meaning
that the simulation works with the input data the way they were entered. This allows simulations to start running immediately without going through a translator,
but it slows down the speed at which the simulation executes.
In addition to translating the model input data, other data elements are created
for use during simulation, including statistical counters and state variables. Statistical counters are used to log statistical information during the simulation such as
the cumulative number of entries into the system or the cumulative activity time
at a workstation.

4.5.3 Simulation Interface Module

The simulation interface module displays the animation that occurs during the
simulation run. It also permits the user to interact with the simulation to control
the current animation speed, trace events, debug logic, query state variables,

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request snapshot reports, pan or zoom the layout, and so forth. If visual interactive
capability is provided, the user is even permitted to make changes dynamically to
model variables with immediate visual feedback of the effects of such changes.
The animation speed can be adjusted and animation can even be disabled by
the user during the simulation. When unconstrained, a simulation is capable of
running as fast as the computer can process all of the events that occur within the
simulated time. The simulation clock advances instantly to each scheduled event;
the only central processing unit (CPU) time of the computer that is used is what is
necessary for processing the event logic. This is how simulation is able to run in
compressed time. It is also the reason why large models with millions of events
take so long to simulate. Ironically, in real life activities take time while events
take no time. In simulation, events take time while activities take no time. To slow
down a simulation, delay loops or system timers are used to create pauses between
events. These techniques give the appearance of elapsing time in an animation. In
some applications, it may even be desirable to run a simulation at the same rate as
a real clock. These real-time simulations are achieved by synchronizing the simulation clock with the computers internal system clock. Human-in-the-loop (such
as operator training simulators) and hardware-in-the-loop (testing of new equipment and control systems) are examples of real-time simulations.

4.5.4 Simulation Processor

The simulation processor processes the simulated events and updates the statistical accumulators and state variables. A typical simulation processor consists of
the following basic components:
Clock variablea variable used to keep track of the elapsed time during
the simulation.
Event calendara list of scheduled events arranged chronologically
according to the time at which they are to occur.
Event dispatch managerthe internal logic used to update the clock and
manage the execution of events as they occur.
Event logicalgorithms that describe the logic to be executed and
statistics to be gathered when an event occurs.
Waiting listsone or more lists (arrays) containing events waiting for a
resource or other condition to be satised before continuing processing.
Random number generatoran algorithm for generating one or more
streams of pseudo-random numbers between 0 and 1.
Random variate generatorsroutines for generating random variates
from specied probability distributions.

4.5.5 Animation Processor

The animation processor interacts with the simulation database to update the
graphical data to correspond to the changing state data. Animation is usually

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displayed during the simulation itself, although some simulation products create
an animation le that can be played back at the end of the simulation. In addition
to animated gures, dynamic graphs and history plots can be displayed during the
simulation.
Animation and dynamically updated displays and graphs provide a visual representation of what is happening in the model while the simulation is running.
Animation comes in varying degrees of realism from three-dimensional animation
to simple animated owcharts. Often, the only output from the simulation that is of
interest is what is displayed in the animation. This is particularly true when simulation is used for facilitating conceptualization or for communication purposes.
A lot can be learned about model behavior by watching the animation (a picture is worth a thousand words, and an animation is worth a thousand pictures).
Animation can be as simple as circles moving from box to box, to detailed, realistic graphical representations. The strategic use of graphics should be planned in
advance to make the best use of them. While insufcient animation can weaken
the message, excessive use of graphics can distract from the central point to be
made. It is always good to dress up the simulation graphics for the nal presentation; however, such embellishments should be deferred at least until after the
model has been debugged.
For most simulations where statistical analysis is required, animation is no
substitute for the postsimulation summary, which gives a quantitative overview of
the entire system performance. Basing decisions on the animation alone reects
shallow thinking and can even result in unwarranted conclusions.

4.5.6 Output Processor

The output processor summarizes the statistical data collected during the simulation run and creates an output database. Statistics are reported on such performance measures as

Resource utilization.
Queue sizes.
Waiting times.
Processing rates.

In addition to standard output reporting, most simulation software provides the

ability to write user-specied data out to external les.

4.5.7 Output Interface Module

The output interface module provides a user interface for displaying the output
results from the simulation. Output results may be displayed in the form of reports
or charts (bar charts, pie charts, or the like). Output data analysis capabilities such
as correlation analysis and condence interval calculations also are often provided. Some simulation products even point out potential problem areas such as
bottlenecks.

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4.6 Simulation Using ProModel

ProModel is a powerful, yet easy-to-use, commercial simulation package that is
designed to effectively model any discrete-event processing system. It also has
continuous modeling capabilities for modeling ow in and out of tanks and other
vessels. The online tutorial in ProModel describes the building, running, and
output analysis of simulation models. A brief overview of how ProModel works is
presented here. The labs in this book provide a more detailed, hands-on approach
for actually building and running simulations using ProModel.

4.6.1 Building a Model

A model is dened in ProModel using simple graphical tools, data entry tables,
and ll-in-the-blank dialog boxes. In ProModel, a model consists of entities (the
items being processed), locations (the places where processing occurs), resources
(agents used to process and move entities), and paths (aisles and pathways along
which entities and resources traverse). Dialogs are associated with each of these
modeling elements for dening operational behavior such as entity arrivals and
processing logic. Schedules, downtimes, and other attributes can also be dened
for entities, resources, and locations.
Most of the system elements are dened graphically in ProModel (see
Figure 4.8). A graphic representing a location, for example, is placed on the layout
to create a new location in the model (see Figure 4.9). Information about this
location can then be entered such as its name, capacity, and so on. Default values
are provided to help simplify this process. Dening objects graphically provides a
highly intuitive and visual approach to model building. The use of graphics is
optional, and a model can even be dened without using any graphics. In addition
to graphic objects provided by the modeling software, import capability is available to bring in graphics from other packages. This includes complete facility
layouts created using CAD software such as AutoCAD.

4.6.2 Running the Simulation

When running a model created in ProModel, the model database is translated or
compiled to create the simulation database. The animation in ProModel is
displayed concurrently with the simulation. Animation graphics are classied as
either static or dynamic. Static graphics include walls, aisles, machines, screen text,
and others. Static graphics provide the background against which the animation
FIGURE 4.8
Sample of ProModel
graphic objects.

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FIGURE 4.9
ProModel animation provides useful feedback.

takes place. This background might be a CAD layout imported into the model. The
dynamic animation objects that move around on the background during the simulation include entities (parts, customers, and so on) and resources (people, fork
trucks, and so forth). Animation also includes dynamically updated counters,
indicators, gauges, and graphs that display count, status, and statistical information
(see Figure 4.9).

4.6.3 Output Analysis

The output processor in ProModel provides both summary and detailed statistics
on key performance measures. Simulation results are presented in the form of reports, plots, histograms, pie charts, and others. Output data analysis capabilities
such as condence interval estimation are provided for more precise analysis.
Outputs from multiple replications and multiple scenarios can also be summarized and compared. Averaging performance across replications and showing
multiple scenario output side-by-side make the results much easier to interpret.
Summary Reports
Summary reports show totals, averages, and other overall values of interest.
Figure 4.10 shows an output report summary generated from a ProModel simulation run.

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FIGURE 4.10
Summary report of simulation activity.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------General Report
Output from C:\ProMod4\models\demos\Mfg_cost.mod [Manufacturing Costing Optimization]
Date: Feb/27/2003
Time: 06:50:05 PM
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Scenario
: Model Parameters
Replication
: 1 of 1
Warmup Time
: 5 hr
Simulation Time : 15 hr
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOCATIONS

Location
Name
----------Receive
NC Lathe 1
NC Lathe 2
Degrease
Inspect
Bearing Que
Loc1

Scheduled
Hours
--------10
10
10
10
10
10
10

Capacity
-------2
1
1
2
1
100
5

Total
Entries
------21
57
57
114
113
90
117

Average
Minutes
Per Entry
--------57.1428
10.1164
9.8918
10.1889
4.6900
34.5174
25.6410

Average
Contents
-------2
0.961065
0.939725
1.9359
0.883293
5.17762
5

Maximum
Contents
-------2
1
1
2
1
13
5

Current
Contents
-------2
1
1
2
1
11
5

RESOURCES

Resource
Name
-------CellOp.1
CellOp.2
CellOp.3
CellOp

Units
----1
1
1
3

Scheduled
Hours
--------10
10
10
30

Number
Of Times
Used
-------122
118
115
355

Average
Minutes
Per
Usage
-------2.7376
2.7265
2.5416
2.6704

Average
Minutes
Travel
To Use
-------0.1038
0.1062
0.1020
0.1040

Average
Minutes
Moving

Average
Minutes
Wait for
Res, etc.
--------31.6055
3.2269
2.4885
35.5899

Average
Minutes
Travel
To Park
-------0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

% Blocked
In Travel
--------0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

ENTITY ACTIVITY

Entity
Name
------Pallet
Blank
Cog
Reject
Bearing

Total
Exits
----19
0
79
33
78

Current
Quantity
In System
--------2
7
3
0
12

Average
Minutes
In
System
--------63.1657
52.5925
49.5600
42.1855

-------0.0000
0.8492
0.8536
0.0500

Average
Minutes
In
Operation
--------1.0000
33.5332
33.0656
0.0000

Average
Minutes
Blocked
--------30.5602
14.9831
13.1522
6.5455

% Util
-----57.76
55.71
50.67
54.71

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FIGURE 4.11
Time-series graph
showing changes in
queue size over time.

FIGURE 4.12
Histogram of queue
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Discrete-Event Simulation

Time Series Plots and Histograms

Sometimes a summary report is too general to capture the information being
sought. Fluctuations in model behavior over time can be viewed using a time
series report. In ProModel, time series output data are displayed graphically so
that patterns can be identied easily. Time series plots can show how inventory
levels uctuate throughout the simulation or how changes in workload affect resource utilization. Figure 4.11 is a time series graph showing how the length of a
queue uctuates over time.
Once collected, time series data can be grouped in different ways to show patterns or trends. One common way of showing patterns is using a histogram. The
histogram in Figure 4.12 breaks down contents in a queue to show the percentage
of time different quantities were in that queue.
As depicted in Figure 4.12, over 95 percent of the time, there were fewer than
12 items in the queue. This is more meaningful than simply knowing what the
average length of the queue was.

4.7 Languages versus Simulators

A distinction is frequently made between simulation languages and simulators.
Simulation languages are often considered more general purpose and have fewer
predened constructs for modeling specic types of systems. Simulators, on the
other hand, are designed to handle specic problemsfor example, a job shop simulator or a clinic simulator. The rst simulators that appeared provided little, if any,
programming capability, just as the rst simulation languages provided few, if any,
special modeling constructs to facilitate modeling. Consequently, simulators acquired the reputation of being easy to use but inexible, while simulation languages
were branded as being very exible but difcult to use (see Figure 4.13).
Over time, the distinction between simulation languages and simulators has
become blurred as specialized modeling constructs have been added to generalpurpose simulation languages, making them easier to use. During the same period,
general programming extensions have been added to simulators, making them
more exible. The most popular simulation tools today combine powerful industryspecic constructs with exible programming capabilities, all accessible from an
intuitive graphical user interface (Bowden 1998). Some tools are even congurable, allowing the software to be adapted to specic applications yet still retaining programming capability. Rather than put languages and simulators on opposite
ends of the same spectrum as though exibility and ease of use were mutually exclusive, it is more appropriate to measure the exibility and ease of use for all
simulation software along two separate axes (Figure 4.14).
FIGURE 4.13

Simulators

Languages

Old paradigm that

polarized ease of use
and exibility.

Ease of use

Flexibility

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Early
simulators

Current best-of-breed
products

Ease of use

Early
languages

Hard

New paradigm that

views ease of use and
exibility as
independent
characteristics.

Easy

FIGURE 4.14

Low

High
Flexibility

4.8 Future of Simulation

Simulation products have evolved to provide more than simply stand-alone simulation capability. Modern simulation products have open architectures based on
component technology and standard data access methods (like SQL) to provide
interfacing capability with other applications such as CAD programs and enterprise planning tools. Surveys reported annually in Industrial Engineering Solutions show that most simulation products have the following features:

Input data analysis for distribution tting.

Point-and-click graphical user interface.
Reusable components and templates.
Two- (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) animation.
Online help and tutorials.
Interactive debugging.
Automatic model generation.
Output analysis tools.
Optimization.
Open architecture and database connectivity.

Simulation is a technology that will continue to evolve as related technologies improve and more time is devoted to the development of the software. Products will become easier to use with more intelligence being incorporated into the
software itself. Evidence of this trend can already be seen by optimization and
other time-saving utilities that are appearing in simulation products. Animation
and other graphical visualization techniques will continue to play an important
role in simulation. As 3-D and other graphic technologies advance, these features
will also be incorporated into simulation products.

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Simulation products targeted at vertical markets are on the rise. This trend is
driven by efforts to make simulation easier to use and more solution oriented.
Specic areas where dedicated simulators have been developed include call center management, supply chain management, and high-speed processing. At the
same time many simulation applications are becoming more narrowly focused,
others are becoming more global and look at the entire enterprise or value chain
in a hierarchical fashion from top to bottom.
Perhaps the most dramatic change in simulation will be in the area of software interoperability and technology integration. Historically, simulation has
been viewed as a stand-alone, project-based technology. Simulation models were
built to support an analysis project, to predict the performance of complex
systems, and to select the best alternative from a few well-dened alternatives.
Typically these projects were time-consuming and expensive, and relied heavily
on the expertise of a simulation analyst or consultant. The models produced were
generally single use models that were discarded after the project.
In recent years, the simulation industry has seen increasing interest in extending the useful life of simulation models by using them on an ongoing basis
(Harrell and Hicks 1998). Front-end spreadsheets and push-button user interfaces
are making such models more accessible to decision makers. In these exible simulation models, controlled changes can be made to models throughout the system
life cycle. This trend is growing to include dynamic links to databases and other
data sources, enabling entire models actually to be built and run in the background
using data already available from other enterprise applications.
The trend to integrate simulation as an embedded component in enterprise
applications is part of a larger development of software components that can be
distributed over the Internet. This movement is being fueled by three emerging
information technologies: (1) component technology that delivers true object
orientation; (2) the Internet or World Wide Web, which connects business communities and industries; and (3) Web service technologies such as JZEE and
Microsofts .NET (DOTNET). These technologies promise to enable parallel
and distributed model execution and provide a mechanism for maintaining distributed model repositories that can be shared by many modelers (Fishwick 1997).
The interest in Web-based simulation, like all other Web-based applications, continues to grow.

4.9 Summary
Most manufacturing and service systems are modeled using dynamic, stochastic,
discrete-event simulation. Discrete-event simulation works by converting all activities to events and consequent reactions. Events are either time-triggered or
condition-triggered, and are therefore processed either chronologically or when a
satisfying condition has been met.
Simulation models are generally dened using commercial simulation software that provides convenient modeling constructs and analysis tools. Simulation

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software consists of several modules with which the user interacts. Internally,
model data are converted to simulation data, which are processed during the
simulation. At the end of the simulation, statistics are summarized in an output
database that can be tabulated or graphed in various forms. The future of simulation is promising and will continue to incorporate exciting new technologies.

4.10 Review Questions

1. Give an example of a discrete-change state variable and a continuouschange state variable.
2. In simulation, the completion of an activity time that is random must be
known at the start of the activity. Why is this necessary?
3. Give an example of an activity whose completion is a scheduled event
and one whose completion is a conditional event.
4. For the rst 10 customers processed completely through the ATM
spreadsheet simulation presented in Table 3.2 of Chapter 3, construct a
table similar to Table 4.1 as you carry out a manual discrete-event
simulation of the ATM system to
a. Compute the average amount of time the rst 10 customers spent in
the system. Hint: Add time in system and corresponding cumulative
columns to the table.
b. Compute the average amount of time the rst 10 customers spent in
the queue.
c. Plot the number of customers in the queue over the course of the
simulation and compute the average number of customers in the
queue for the simulation.
d. Compute the utilization of the ATM. Hint: Dene a utilization
variable that is equal to zero when the ATM is idle and is equal to 1
when the ATM is busy. At the end of the simulation, compute a timeweighted average of the utilization variable.
5. Identify whether each of the following output statistics would be
computed as a simple or as a time-weighted average value.
a. Average utilization of a resource.
b. Average time entities spend in a queue.
c. Average time entities spend waiting for a resource.
d. Average number of entities waiting for a particular resource.
e. Average repair time for a machine.
6. Give an example of a situation where a time series graph would be
more useful than just seeing an average value.
7. In real life, activities take time and events take no time. During a
simulation, activities take no time and events take all of the time.
Explain this paradox.

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8. What are the main components of simulation software?

9. Look up a simulation product on the Internet or in a trade journal and
describe two promotional features of the product being advertised.
10. For each of the following simulation applications identify one discreteand one continuous-change state variable.
a. Inventory control of an oil storage and pumping facility.
b. Study of beverage production in a soft drink production facility.
c. Study of congestion in a busy trafc intersection.

References
Bowden, Royce. The Spectrum of Simulation Software. IIE Solutions, May 1998,
pp. 4446.
Fishwick, Paul A. Web-Based Simulation. In Proceedings of the 1997 Winter Simulation
Conference, ed. S. Andradottir, K. J. Healy, D. H. Withers, and B. L. Nelson. Institute
of Electric and Electronics Engineers, Piscataway, NJ, 1997. pp. 100109.
Gottfried, Byron S. Elements of Stochastic Process Simulation. Englewood Cliffs, NJ:
Prentice Hall, 1984, p. 8.
Haider, S. W., and J. Banks. Simulation Software Products for Analyzing Manufacturing
Systems. Industrial Engineering, July 1986, p. 98.
Harrell, Charles R., and Don Hicks. Simulation Software Component Architecture for
Simulation-Based Enterprise Applications. Proceedings of the 1998 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. D. J. Medeiros, E. F. Watson, J. S. Carson, and M. S. Manivannan.
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Piscataway, New Jersey, 1998,
pp. 171721.

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GETTING STARTED

For which of you, intending to build a tower, sitteth not down rst, and counteth
the cost, whether he have sufcient to nish it? Lest haply, after he hath laid the
foundation, and is not able to nish it, all that behold it begin to mock him,
Saying, This man began to build, and was not able to nish.
Luke 14:2830

5.1 Introduction
In this chapter we look at how to begin a simulation project. Specically, we
discuss how to select a project and set up a plan for successfully completing it.
Simulation is not something you do simply because you have a tool and a process
to which it can be applied. Nor should you begin a simulation without forethought
and preparation. A simulation project should be carefully planned following basic
project management principles and practices. Questions to be answered in this
chapter are

How do you prepare to do a simulation study?

What are the steps for doing a simulation study?
What are typical objectives for a simulation study?
What is required to successfully complete a simulation project?
What are some pitfalls to avoid when doing simulation?

While specic tasks may vary from project to project, the basic procedure for
doing simulation is essentially the same. Much as in building a house, you are
better off following a time-proven methodology than approaching it haphazardly.
In this chapter, we present the preliminary activities for preparing to conduct a
simulation study. We then cover the steps for successfully completing a simulation
project. Subsequent chapters elaborate on these steps. Here we focus primarily
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on the rst step: dening the objective, scope, and requirements of the study. Poor
planning, ill-dened objectives, unrealistic expectations, and unanticipated costs
can turn a simulation project sour. For a simulation project to succeed, the objectives and scope should be clearly dened and requirements identied and quantied
for conducting the project.

5.2 Preliminary Activities

Simulation is not a tool to be applied indiscriminately with little or no forethought. The decision to use simulation itself requires some consideration. Is the
application appropriate for simulation? Are other approaches equally as effective
yet less expensive? These and other questions should be raised when exploring
the potential use of simulation. Once it has been determined that simulation is the
right approach, other preparations should be made to ensure that the necessary
personnel and resources are in place to conduct the study. Personnel must be identied and trained. The right software should also be carefully selected. The nature
of the study and the policies of the organization will largely dictate how to prepare
for a simulation project.

5.2.1 Selecting an Application

The decision to use simulation usually begins with a systemic problem for which
a solution is being sought. The problem might be as simple as getting better
utilization from a key resource or as complex as how to increase throughput while
at the same time reducing cycle time in a large factory. Such problems become
opportunities for system improvement through the use of simulation.
While many opportunities may exist for using simulation, beginners in simulation should select an application that is not too complicated yet can have an impact on an organizations bottom line. On the one hand, you want to focus on
problems of signicance, but you dont want to get in over your head. The rst
simulation project should be one that is well dened and can be completed within
a few weeks. This pilot project might consist of a small process such as a manufacturing cell or a service operation with only a few process steps. The goal at this
point should be focused more on gaining experience in simulation than making
dramatic, enterprisewide improvements. Conducting a pilot project is much like a
warm-up exercise. It should be treated as a learning experience as well as a condence and momentum builder.
As one gains experience in the use of simulation, more challenging projects
can be undertaken. As each project is considered, it should be evaluated rst for
its suitability for simulation. The following questions can help you determine
whether a process is a good candidate for simulation:
Is the process well dened?
Is process information readily available?

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Does the process have interdependencies?

Does the process exhibit variability?
Are the potential cost savings greater than the cost of doing the study?
If it is a new process, is there time to perform a simulation analysis?
If it is an existing process, would it be less costly to experiment on the
actual system?
Is management willing to support the project?
The wisdom of asking these questions should be clear. You dont want to
waste time on efforts or problems that are too unstructured or for which simulation
is not well suited. The last question, which relates to management support, is a
reminder that no simulation project should be undertaken if management is unwilling to support the study or take the recommendations of the study seriously.
Obviously, multiple projects may t the criteria just listed, in which case the list of
candidates for simulation should be prioritized using a costbenet analysis
(a.k.a. biggest-bang-for-the-buck analysis). Management preferences and timing
may also come into play in prioritization.

5.2.2 Personnel Identication

One of the rst preparations for a simulation project is to have management assign
a project leader who works alone or with a project team. When assessing personnel
requirements for the simulation, consideration should be given to factors such as
level of expertise, length of the assignment, and organizational structure. Large
companies, for example, often have a central simulation group that provides simulation services to entities within the organization. In some organizations, simulation
is used no more than once or twice a year, such as when a major change in operation is being considered. In such situations, it may be more cost-effective to hire a
simulation consultant than to do the simulation in-house. While the decision to
use a consultant is usually based on the level and availability of in-house simulation
expertise as well as the difculty of the project, the opportunity to train additional
people or acquire increased simulation expertise to apply to future projects should
not be overlooked.
Assuming the simulation will be done internally, either a simulation specialist should be assigned to lead the project or an engineer or manager who works
closely with the specialist should be assigned. The person or group doing the
modeling should be well trained and procient in the use of one or more simulation packages. If no such experienced individual exists, management must be
willing to invest in employee training in simulation.
The process owner should take an active role in the project and, if possible,
even lead the effort. If the process owner refuses or doesnt have time to get
involved in the simulation project, the effort will be largely wasted. It is imperative to have someone involved who not only understands the process and what
possible design options are feasible, but who also has responsibility for the
systems performance.

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5.2.3 Software Selection

Once the responsibility for doing simulation has been assigned, software tools, if
not already in possession, need to be acquired to develop the simulation model.
Having the right tool for the job can mean the difference between success and failure in a simulation project. Modeling efforts sometimes go on for months without
much progress because of limited capabilities in the software. Simulation software cant make a simulation succeed, but it can make it fail.
Selecting the right simulation software requires that an assessment rst be
made of the simulation requirements. Then alternative products should be evaluated against those requirements. If simulation is to be used in multiple applications that are quite diverse, it may be desirable to have more than one simulation
product so that the right tool is used for the right job.
In selecting simulation software, attention should be given to the following
criteria:
QualityReliable algorithms, absence of bugs, and graceful handling of
user input errors.
Features and capabilityAbility to model systems of any size and
complexity and meet simulation needs in terms of external interfacing,
animation, reporting, and so forth.
Ease of useIntuitive editing and built-in constructs that minimize the
time and effort to learn and use the product.
ServicesQuality and level of training and technical support, including
the long-term sustainability of this service.
CostThe total cost of ownership (TCO), which includes cost of
procurement, training, support, and labor to use the software.
Although fewer than a dozen major products are on the market, there are over
a hundred products from which to choose. It is best to conduct an initial screening
to develop a short list. Then a more in-depth evaluation can be conducted on the
three or four nalists. In conducting the initial screening, different products
should be screened in terms of their ability to meet minimum requirements in the
areas just identied. Often vendor literature or buying guides are helpful at this
stage of the evaluation. Magazines such as IIE Solutions and OR/MS Today run
regular reviews of simulation products.
In the nal evaluation phase, the products should be examined with greater
scrutiny in each of the areas just listed. Since all major software products have
bugs, it is best to look for a product that is mature and has a large user base. This
will help ensure that even rare bugs have been identied and xed. Simulation
features are pretty easy to assess because most vendors have feature lists available. One of the most difcult criteria to assess in a simulation product is ease of
use. Most vendors will likely claim that their product is the easiest to use, so it is
always a good idea to have the vendor being considered build a simple model in
your presence that is representative of the target application. This is the best way
to test the suitability and ease of use of the software. At a minimum, it is good to
experiment building simple models with the software to see how user friendly it is.

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Many vendors offer guarantees on their products so they may be returned after
some trial period. This allows you to try out the software to see how well it ts
your needs.
The services provided by the software provider can be a lifesaver. If working
late on a project, it may be urgent to get immediate help with a modeling or software problem. Basic and advanced training classes, good documentation, and lots
of example models can provide invaluable resources for becoming procient in
the use of the software.
When selecting simulation software, it is important to assess the total cost of
ownership. There often tends to be an overemphasis on the purchase price of the
software with little regard for the cost associated with learning and using the
software. It has been recommended that simulation software be purchased on
the basis of productivity rather than price (Banks and Gibson 1997). The purchase
price of the software can sometimes be only a small fraction of the cost in time
and labor that results from having a tool that is difcult to use or inadequate for
the application.
Other considerations that may come into play when selecting a product include quality of the documentation, hardware requirements (for example, is a
graphics accelerator card required?), and available consulting services.

5.3 Simulation Procedure

Once a suitable application has been selected and appropriate tools and personnel
are in place, the simulation study can begin. Simulation is much more than building and running a model of the process. Successful simulation projects are well
planned and coordinated. While there are no strict rules on how to conduct a simulation project, the following steps are generally recommended:
Step 1: Dene objective, scope, and requirements. Dene the purpose
of the simulation project and what the scope of the project will be.
Requirements need to be dened in terms of resources, time, and budget
for carrying out the project.
Step 2: Collect and analyze system data. Identify, gather, and analyze the
data dening the system to be modeled. This step results in a conceptual
model and a data document on which all can agree.
Step 3: Build the model. Develop a simulation model of the system.
Step 4: Validate the model. Debug the model and make sure it is a
credible representation of the real system.
Step 5: Conduct experiments. Run the simulation for each of the
scenarios to be evaluated and analyze the results.
Step 6: Present the results. Present the ndings and make
recommendations so that an informed decision can be made.
Each step need not be completed in its entirety before moving to the next
step. The procedure for doing a simulation is an iterative one in which activities

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are rened and sometimes redened with each iteration. The decision to push
toward further renement should be dictated by the objectives and constraints of
the study as well as by sensitivity analysis, which determines whether additional
renement will yield meaningful results. Even after the results are presented,
there are often requests to conduct additional experiments. Describing this iterative process, Pritsker and Pegden (1979) observe,
The stages of simulation are rarely performed in a structured sequence beginning with
problem denition and ending with documentation. A simulation project may involve
false starts, erroneous assumptions which must later be abandoned, reformulation of
the problem objectives, and repeated evaluation and redesign of the model. If properly
done, however, this iterative process should result in a simulation model which properly assesses alternatives and enhances the decision making process.

Figure 5.1 illustrates this iterative process.

FIGURE 5.1
Iterative nature of
simulation.

Define objective,
scope, and
requirements

Collect and
analyze system
data

Build model

Validate model

Conduct
experiments

Present
results

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The remainder of this chapter focuses on the rst step of dening the objective, scope, and requirements of the study. The remaining steps will be discussed
in later chapters.

5.4 Dening the Objective

The objective of a simulation denes the purpose or reason for conducting the
simulation study. It should be realistic and achievable, given the time and resource
constraints of the study. Simulation objectives can be grouped into the following
general categories:
Performance analysisWhat is the all-around performance of the system
in terms of resource utilization, ow time, output rate, and so on?
Capacity/constraint analysisWhen pushed to the maximum, what is
the processing or production capacity of the system and where are the
bottlenecks?
Conguration comparisonHow well does one system conguration
meet performance objectives compared to another?
OptimizationWhat settings for particular decision variables best
achieve desired performance goals?
Sensitivity analysisWhich decision variables are the most inuential on
performance measures, and how inuential are they?
VisualizationHow can system dynamics be most effectively visualized?
Naturally, a simulation project may have multiple objectives and therefore
fall under two or more of the categories listed here. For example, a sensitivity
analysis may be conducted as part of an optimization study to determine the
highest-leveraging variables on which to optimize. After the model is optimized,
it may be necessary to focus attention on enhancing the visualization of the model
to more effectively sell the solution to management.
Sometimes the objectives change or expand as the project progresses. The
insights provided by simulation give rise to previously unforeseen opportunities
for improvement. Furthermore, the very process of doing a simulation helps rene
and clarify objectives. Staying as close as possible to the initial scope of the project is important, and changes to the scope should be documented and assessed in
terms of their impact on budget and schedule. Otherwise, scope creep sets in
and the project never ends.
Dening objectives for a simulation study should take into account the ultimate intended use of the model. Some models are built as throwaway models
that are used only once and then discarded. Other models will be reused for
ongoing what-if analyses. Some simulations are run to obtain a single summary
statistical measure. Others require realistic animation to convince a skeptical customer. Some models are only for the use of the analyst and need not have a userfriendly interface. Other models are intended for use by managers with little

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simulation background and therefore require a customized, easy-to-use interface.

Some models are used to make decisions of minor consequence. Other models
serve as the basis for major nancial decisions.
Following is a list of sample design and operational questions that simulation
can help answer. They are intended as examples of specic objectives that might
be dened for a simulation study.
Design Decisions

1. What division and sequence of processing activities provide the best

ow?
2. What is the best layout of ofces, machines, equipment, and other work
areas for minimizing travel time and congestion?
3. How many operating personnel are needed to meet required production
or service levels?
4. What level of automation is the most cost-effective?
5. How many machines, tools, xtures, or containers are needed to meet
throughput requirements?
6. What is the least-cost method of material handling or transportation that
meets processing requirements?
7. What are the appropriate number and location of pickup and drop-off
points in a material handling or transportation system that minimizes
waiting times?
8. What are the optimum number and size of waiting areas, storage areas,
queues, and buffers?
9. What is the effect of localizing rather than centralizing material storage,
resource pools, and so forth?
10. What automation control logic provides the best utilization of resources?
11. What is the optimum unit load or batch size for processing?
12. Where are the bottlenecks in the system, and how can they be
eliminated?
13. How many shifts are needed to meet a specic production or service
level?
14. What is the best speed to operate conveyors and other handling or
transportation equipment to meet move demands?
Operational Decisions

1. What is the best way to route material, customers, or calls through the
system?
2. What is the best way to allocate personnel for a particular set of tasks?
3. What is the best schedule for preventive maintenance?
4. How much preventive maintenance should be performed?
5. What is the best priority rule for selecting jobs and tasks?

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6. What is the best schedule for producing a mix of products or

customers?
7. What is the best inventory replenishment policy?
8. How much raw material and work-in-process inventory should be
maintained?
9. What is the best production control method (kanban, for example)?
10. What is the optimum sequence for producing a particular set of jobs or
processing a given set of customers?
11. How many personnel should be scheduled for a particular shift?
When the goal is to analyze some aspect of system performance, the tendency
is to think in terms of the mean or expected value of the performance metric. For
example, we are frequently interested in the average contents of a queue or the
average utilization of a resource. There are other metrics that may have equal or
even greater meaning that can be obtained from a simulation study. For example,
we might be interested in variation as a metric, such as the standard deviation in
waiting times. Extreme values can also be informative, such as the minimum and
maximum number of contents in a storage area. We might also be interested in a
percentile such as the percentage of time that the utilization of a machine is less
than a particular value, say, 80 percent. While frequently we speak of designing
systems to be able to handle peak periods, it often makes more sense to design for
a value above which values only occur less than 5 or 10 percent of the time. It is
more economical, for example, to design a staging area on a shipping dock based
on 90 percent of peak time usage rather than based on the highest usage during
peak time. Sometimes a single measure is not as descriptive as a trend or pattern
of performance. Perhaps a measure has increasing and decreasing periods such as
the activity in a restaurant. In these situations, a detailed time series report would
be the most meaningful.
It is always best if objectives can be clearly, completely, and precisely stated.
You need to be able to set your sight clearly on what you are trying to accomplish
in the simulation study. You also need to be able to know whether you hit your target objective. To be effective, an objective should be one that
Has high potential impact (reduce throughput rate costs, not reduce
backtraveling).
Is achievable (20 percent inventory reduction, not zero inventory).
Is specic (reduce waiting time in a particular queue, not eliminate
waste).
Is quantiable (reduce ow time by 40 percent, not reduce ow time).
Is measurable (increase yield by 10 percent, not improve morale by
10 percent).
Identies any relevant constraints (reduce turnaround time by
20 percent without adding resources, not just reduce turnaround time by
20 percent).

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Examples of well-stated objectives might be the following:

Find the lowest-cost solution to reduce patient waiting time in an emergency
room so that no more than 10 percent of patients wait longer than 15 minutes.
Increase the throughput rate of an assembly line by an average of
20 percent without additional capital expenditure.
While well-dened and clearly stated objectives are important to guide the
simulation effort, they should not restrict the simulation or inhibit creativity.
Michael Schrage (1999) observes that the real value of a model or simulation may
stem less from its ability to test a hypothesis than from its power to generate useful surprise. Louis Pasteur once remarked that chance favors the prepared mind.
It holds equally true that chance favors the prepared prototype: models and simulations can and should be media to create and capture surprise and serendipity. . . .
The challenge is to devise transparent models that also make people shake their
heads and say Wow! The right experts can be hypervulnerable to surprise
but well situated to turn surprise to their advantage. Thats why Alexander Fleming recognized the importance of a mold on an agar plate and discovered penicillin. Finally, he says, A prototype should be an invitation to play. You know
you have a successful prototype when people who see it make useful suggestions
about how it can be improved.

5.5 Dening the Scope of Work

With a realistic, meaningful, and well-dened objective established, a scope of
work can be dened for achieving the stated objective. The scope of work is important for guiding the study as well as providing a specication of the work to be
done upon which all can agree. The scope is essentially a project specication that
helps set expectations by clarifying to others exactly what the simulation will include and exclude. Such a specication is especially important if an outside consultant is performing the simulation so that there is mutual understanding of the
deliverables required.
An important part of the scope is a specication of the models that will be
built. When evaluating improvements to an existing system, it is often desirable to
model the current system rst. This is called an as-is model. Results from the
as-is model are statistically compared with outputs of the real-world system to
validate the simulation model. This as-is model can then be used as a benchmark
or baseline to compare the results of to-be models. For reengineering or process
improvement studies, this two-phase modeling approach is recommended. For
entirely new facilities or processes, there will be no as-is model. There may, however, be several to-be models to compare.
To ensure that the budget and schedule are realistic, a detailed specication
should be drafted to include
Model scope.
Level of detail.

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Data-gathering responsibilities.
Experimentation.
Form of results.

5.5.1 Determining Model Scope

Model scope refers to what system elements should be represented in the model.
Determining the scope of a model should be based on how much impact a particular activity has on achieving the objectives of the simulation.
One decision regarding model scope relates to the model boundaries. A common tendency for beginners is to model the entire system, even when the problem
area and all relevant variables are actually isolated within a smaller subsystem. If,
for example, the objective is to nd the number of operators needed to meet a
required production level for a machining cell, it probably isnt necessary to
model what happens to parts after leaving the cell. Figure 5.2 illustrates how the
extent of the model should be conned to only those activities whose interactions
have a direct bearing on the problem being studied. If the objective of the simulation is to nd how many operators are needed to perform activity C, upstream and
downstream activities that do not impact this decision should be omitted from the
model. In Figure 5.2, since the input rate to activity B is reasonably predictable,
based on knowledge of how activity A behaves, activity A is excluded from the
model and only modeled as an arrival rate to location 2. Since activity E never
causes entities to back up at D, activity E can also be ignored.
In addition to limiting the model boundaries, other system elements may be
excluded from a model due to their irrelevance. Factors such as off-shift maintenance activities or machine setups that are brief and occur only infrequently can
usually be safely ignored. The determination of what elements can be eliminated
should be based on their relevance to the objectives of the study.

5.5.2 Deciding on Level of Detail

Where model scope is concerned more with model breadth, the level of detail determines the depth of a model. More specically, it denes the granularity or resolution of the model. At one extreme, an entire factory can be modeled as a single
black box operation with a random activity time. At the other extreme is a

FIGURE 5.2
Conning the model to
impacting activities.
Activity
A

Activity
B

Activity
C
Scope of model

Activity
D

Activity
E

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FIGURE 5.3
Effect of level of detail on model development time.
One-to-one
correspondence

Minimum
required

Level of
detail

Model development time

white box model that is very detailed and produces a one-to-one correspondence between the model and the system.
Determining the appropriate level of detail is an important decision. Too
much detail makes it difcult and time-consuming to develop and debug the
model. Too little detail may make the model unrealistic by oversimplifying the
process. Figure 5.3 illustrates how the time to develop a model is affected by
the level of detail. It also highlights the importance of including only enough detail to meet the objectives of the study.
The level of detail is determined largely by the degree of accuracy required in
the results. If only a rough estimate is being sought, it may be sufcient to model just
the ow sequence and processing times. If, on the other hand, a close answer is
needed, all of the elements that drive system behavior should be precisely modeled.

5.5.3 Assigning Data-Gathering Responsibilities

In any simulation project, data gathering is almost always the most difcult and
time-consuming task. Identifying data requirements and who will be responsible
for gathering the data is essential if this activity is to succeed. If the modeler is responsible for gathering data, it is important to have the full cooperation of those
who possess the data, including equipment vendors, engineers, technicians, direct
labor personnel, and supervisors. It is also a good idea to get those individuals
involved who have a stake in the results, such as managers and possibly even customers. The more ngerprints you can get on the knife, the stronger the commitment youll have to the success of the project.

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Dates should be set for completing the data-gathering phase because, left uncontrolled, it could go on indenitely. One lesson you learn quickly is that good data
are elusive and you can always spend more time trying to rene the data. Nearly all
models are based partially on assumptions, simply because complete and accurate
information is usually lacking. The project team, in cooperation with stakeholders
in the system, will need to agree on the assumptions to be made in the model.

5.5.4 Planning the Experimentation

The number and nature of the scenarios or alternative congurations to be evaluated should be planned from the outset to ensure that adequate time is allotted.
Often this decision itself is inuenced by the time constraints of the study. Where
only slightly different scenarios are being evaluated, a single model can be developed and modied appropriately to run each scenario. If alternative congurations are signicantly different, separate models may need to be built. It may
require nearly as much effort modeling each conguration as it does developing
the initial model.
For studies considering improvements to an existing system, it is often helpful and effective to model the current system as well as the proposed system. The
basic premise is that you are not ready to improve a system until you understand
how the current system operates. Information on the current system operation is
easier to obtain than information on the proposed change of operation. Once a
model of the current system is built, it is easier to visualize what changes need to
be made for the modied system. Both systems may even be modeled together in
the same simulation and made to run side by side. During the nal presentation of
the results, being able to show both the as-is and to-be versions of the system
effectively demonstrates the differences in performance.

5.5.5 Determining the Form of Results

The form in which the results are to be presented can signicantly affect the time
and effort involved in the simulation study. If a detailed animation or an extensive
written report is expected, the project can easily stretch on for several weeks after
the experimentation phase has been completed. Many times the only result required is a simple verication of whether a system is capable of meeting a production requirement or service level. In such cases, a single number may sufce. In
other instances, a complete document may be required that details all of the goals,
data sources, assumptions, modeling procedures, experiments, analysis of results,
and recommendations. The key to determining the kind and quantity of information to present to the decision maker or stakeholder is to ask what decision is being
made with the simulation and what the background is of the person(s) who will be
making the decision. Attention should then be focused on providing adequate information and effective visualization to enable the right decision to be made.
Sometimes the simulation animation can effectively show bottleneck areas or
compare alternative scenarios. When showing animation, use graphics and displays

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that focus attention on the area of interest. If lots of color and detail are added to the
animation, it may detract from the key issues. Usually the best approach is to keep
stationary or background graphics simple, perhaps displaying only a schematic of
the layout using neutral colors. Entities or other dynamic graphics can then be
displayed more colorfully to make them stand out. Sometimes the most effective
presentation is a realistic 3-D animation. Other times the ow of entities along a
owchart consisting of simple boxes and arrows may be more effective.
Another effective use of animation in presenting the results is to run two or
more scenarios side by side, displaying a scoreboard that shows how they compare on one or two key performance measures. The scoreboard may even include
a bar graph or other chart that is dynamically updated to compare results.
Most decision makers such as managers need to have only a few key items of
information for making the decision. It should be remembered that people, not the
model, make the nal decision. With this in mind, every effort should be made to
help the decision maker clearly understand the options and their associated
consequences. The use of charts helps managers visualize and focus their attention on key decision factors. Charts are attention grabbers and are much more effective in making a point than plowing through a written document or sheets of
computer printout.

5.6 Dening Project Requirements

With the scope of work dened, resource, budget, and time requirements can be
determined for the project. Most of the resources (personnel, hardware, and so on)
should have already been put in place when the decision was made to do a simulation. The primary task at this point is to develop a budget and schedule for the
project. A budget or schedule overrun can sour an otherwise great modeling effort.
It does little good if simulation solves a problem but the time to do the simulation
extends beyond the deadline for applying the solution, or the cost to nd the solution exceeds the benet that is derived. Realistic budgeting and scheduling are
based on a complete knowledge of the requirements of the study. It is not uncommon to begin a simulation project with aspirations of developing an impressively
detailed model or of creating a stunningly realistic animation only to scramble at
the last minute to throw together a crude model that barely meets the deadline.
Obviously, the time to perform a simulation project will vary depending on
the size and difculty of the project. If input data cannot be readily obtained, it
may be necessary to add several additional weeks to the project. Assuming input
data are readily available, a small project typically takes two to four weeks, while
large projects can take two to four months. A simulation schedule should be based
on realistic projections of the time requirements, keeping in mind that
Data gathering and analysis can take over 50 percent of the overall project
time.
Model building usually takes the least amount of time (10 to 20 percent).

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Once a base model is built, several additional weeks may be needed to

conduct all of the desired experiments, especially if the purpose of the
project is to make system comparisons.
At least several days must be allowed to clean up the models and develop
the nal presentation.
Simulation projects follow the 9010 rule, where the rst 90 percent takes
10 percent of the time, and the last 10 percent takes the other 90 percent.

5.7 Reasons Why Simulation Projects Fail

No matter how good the intentions, simulation projects can fail if not carefully
planned and executed. Many specic reasons contribute to simulation failure.
Some of the most common causes of unsuccessful projects include

Unclear objectives.
Unskilled modelers.
Unavailable data.
Unmanaged expectations.
Unsupportive management.
Underestimated requirements.
Uninvolved process owner(s).

If the right procedure is followed, and the necessary time and resources are committed to the project, simulation is always going to provide some benet to the
decision-making process. The best way to ensure success is to make sure that
everyone involved is educated in the process and understands the benets and
limitations of simulation.

5.8 Summary
Simulation projects are almost certain to fail if there is little or no planning. Doing
simulation requires some preliminary work so that the appropriate resources and
personnel are in place. Beginning a simulation project requires selecting the right
application, dening objectives, acquiring the necessary tools and resources, and
planning the work to be performed. Applications should be selected that hold the
greatest promise for achieving company goals.
Simulation is most effective when it follows a logical procedure. Objectives
should be clearly stated and a plan developed for completing the project. Data
gathering should focus on dening the system and formulating a conceptual
model. A simulation should then be built that accurately yet minimally captures
the system denition. The model should be veried and validated to ensure that
the results can be relied upon. Experiments should be run that are oriented toward
meeting the original objectives. Finally, the results should be presented in a way

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that clearly represents the ndings of the study. Simulation is an iterative process
that requires redenition and ne-tuning at all stages in the process.
Objectives should be clearly dened and agreed upon to avoid wasted efforts.
They should be documented and followed to avoid scope creep.Aconcisely stated
objective and a written scope of work can help keep a simulation study on track.
Specic items to address when planning a study include dening the model
scope, describing the level of detail required, assigning data-gathering responsibilities, specifying the types of experiments, and deciding on the form of the results. Simulation objectives together with time, resources, and budget constraints
drive the rest of the decisions that are made in completing a simulation project.
Finally, it is people, not the model, who ultimately make the decision.
The importance of involvement of process owners and stakeholders throughout the project cannot be overemphasized. Management support throughout the
project is vital. Ultimately, it is only when expectations are met or exceeded that
a simulation can be deemed a success.

5.9 Review Questions

1. Why are good project management skills important to the success of a
simulation project?
2. If you are new to simulation and have the option of simulating either a
small system with a small payback or a large system with a large
payback, which project would you choose and why?
3. How can simulation software make or break a simulation study?
4. When evaluating ease of use in simulation software, how can you make
an informed decision if every vendor advertises ease of use?
5. Why is it important to have clearly dened objectives for a simulation
that everyone understands and can agree on?
6. For each of the following systems, dene one possible simulation
objective:
a. A manufacturing cell.
b. A fast-food restaurant.
c. An emergency room of a hospital.
d. A tire distribution center.
e. A public bus transportation system.
f. A post ofce.
g. A bank of elevators in a high-rise ofce building.
h. A time-shared, multitasking computer system consisting of a server,
many slave terminals, a high-speed disk, and a processor.
i. A rental car agency at a major airport.
7. How can you effectively manage expectations during a simulation
project?
8. Suppose you are determining the size of a waiting area for a service
facility (such as a clinic, a car repair shop, or a copy center) where the

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10.
11.
12.
13.
14.

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arrival rate uctuates throughout the day. On which of the following

metrics would you base the waiting area capacity and why?
a. The average number of customers waiting.
b. The peak number of customers waiting.
c. The 95th percentile of customers waiting.
What step in doing a simulation study generally takes the longest?
What stage in model building usually gets cut short?
What factors should determine the scope of a model?
What factors should determine the level of detail to include in a model?
What is the advantage of building as-is and to-be models?
What should determine the form of results of a simulation study?

5.10 Case Studies

CASE STUDY A
AST COMPUTES BIG BENEFITS USING SIMULATION
John Perry
Manufacturing Engineer

Source: AST Research Inc. Used with permission by ProModel, 1999.

In the world of computer manufacturing and assembly, success is measured in terms of

seconds. The PC business poses some unique challenges: it is intensely competitive with
thin prot margins and is characterized by constantly changing technologies and products.
The race is to excel in rapid delivery to the marketplace through high-velocity manufacturing. A manufacturer that can minimize the time needed to assemble a computer, move
nimbly to respond to change, and get maximum productivity out of its capital investment
has an edge. At AST Research, we use computer simulation to realize these goals and, so
far, have achieved signicant benets. The application area, which is product assembly, is
an area where almost anyone can benet from the use of simulation.

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The Problem
AST Research Inc., founded in 1980, has become a multibillion-dollar PC manufacturer.
We assemble personal computers and servers in Fort Worth, Texas, and offshore. For a long
time, we optimized (planned) our assembly procedures using traditional methods
gathering time-and-motion data via stopwatches and videotape, performing simple
arithmetic calculations to obtain information about the operation and performance of the
assembly line, and using seat-of-the-pants guesstimates to optimize assembly line output
and labor utilization.

The Model
In December 1994 a new vice president joined AST. Management had long been committed to increasing the plants efciency and output, and our new vice president had experience in using simulation to improve production. We began using ProModel simulation as a
tool for optimizing our assembly lines, and to improve our condence that changes proposed in the assembly process would work out in practice. The results have been signicant. They include

Reduced labor input to each unit.

Shortened production cycle times.
Reduced reject rate.
Increased ability to change assembly instructions quickly when changes become
necessary.

Now when we implement changes, we are condent that those changes in fact will improve
things.
The rst thing we did was learn how to use the simulation software. Then we attempted
to construct a model of our current operations. This would serve two important functions: it
would tell us whether we really understood how to use the software, and it would validate
our understanding of our own assembly lines. If we could not construct a model of our
assembly line that agreed with the real one, that would mean that there was a major aw
either in our ability to model the system or in our understanding of our own operations.
Building a model of our own operations sounded simple enough. After all, we had an
exhaustive catalog of all the steps needed to assemble a computer, and (from previous data
collection efforts) information on how long each operation took. But building a model that
agreed with our real-world situation turned out to be a challenging yet tremendously educational activity.
For example, one of our early models showed that we were producing several thousand
units in a few hours. Since we were not quite that goodwe were off by at least a factor of
10we concluded that we had a major problem in the model we had built, so we went back
to study things in more detail. In every case, our early models failed because we had overlooked or misunderstood how things actually worked on our assembly lines.
Eventually, we built a model that worked and agreed reasonably well with our realworld system out in the factory. To make use of the model, we generated ideas that we
thought would cut down our assembly time and then simulated them in our model.
We examined a number of changes proposed by our engineers and others, and then simulated the ones that looked most promising. Some proposed changes were counterproductive according to our simulation results. We also did a detailed investigation of our testing stations to determine whether it was more efcient to move computers to be tested into

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the testing station via FIFO (rst-in, rst-out) or LIFO (last-in, rst-out). Modeling showed
us that FIFO was more efcient. When we implemented that change, we realized the gain
we had predicted.
Simulation helped us avoid buying more expensive equipment. Some of our materialhandling specialists predicted, based on their experience, that if we increased throughput
by 30 percent, we would have to add some additional, special equipment to the assembly
oor or risk some serious blockages. Simulation showed us that was not true and in practice the simulation turned out to be correct.
We determined that we could move material faster if we gave material movers a specic
pattern to follow instead of just doing things sequentially. For example, in moving certain
items from our testing area, we determined that the most time-efcient way would be to
move shelf 1 rst, followed by shelf 4, then shelf 3, and so on.
After our rst round of making serious changes to our operation and simulating them,
our actual production was within a few percentage points of our predicted production.
Also, by combining some tasks, we were able to reduce our head count on each assembly
line signicantly.
We have completed several rounds of changes, and today, encouraged by the experience
of our new investor, Samsung, we have made a signicant advance that we call Vision 5.
The idea of Vision 5 is to have only ve people in each cell assembling computers.
Although there was initially some skepticism about whether this concept would work, our
simulations showed that it would, so today we have converted one of our focused
factories to this concept and have experienced additional benets. Seeing the benets
from that effort has caused our management to increase its commitment to simulation.

The Results
Simulation has proven its effectiveness at AST Research. We have achieved a number of
useful, measurable goals. For competitive reasons, specic numbers cannot be provided;
however, in order of importance, the benets we have achieved are

Reduced the reject rate.

Reduced blockage by 25 percent.
Increased operator efciency by 20 percent.
Increased overall output by 15 percent.
Reduced the labor cost of each computer.

Other benets included increased ability to explain and justify proposed changes to
management through the use of the graphic animation. Simulation helped us make fewer
missteps in terms of implementing changes that could have impaired our output. We were
able to try multiple scenarios in our efforts to improve productivity and efciency at comparatively low cost and risk. We also learned that the best simulation efforts invite participation by more disciplines in the factory, which helps in terms of team-building. All of
these benets were accomplished at minimal cost. These gains have also caused a cultural
shift at AST, and because we have a tool that facilitates production changes, the company
is now committed to continuous improvement of our assembly practices.
Our use of simulation has convinced us that it produces real, measurable resultsand
equally important, it has helped us avoid making changes that we thought made common
sense, but when simulated turned out to be ineffective. Because of that demonstrable
payoff, simulation has become a key element of our toolkit in optimizing production.

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Questions
1. What were the objectives for using simulation at AST?
2. Why was simulation better than the traditional methods they were using to achieve
these objectives?
3. What common-sense solution was disproved by using simulation?
4. What were some of the unexpected side benets from using simulation?
5. What insights on the use of simulation did you gain from this case study?

CASE STUDY B
DURHAM REGIONAL HOSPITAL SAVES $150,000
ANNUALLY USING SIMULATION TOOLS
Bonnie Lowder
Management Engineer, Premier

Used with permission by ProModel, 1999.

Durham Regional Hospital, a 450-bed facility located in Durham, North Carolina, has been
serving Durham County for 25 years. This public, full-service, acute-care facility is facing
the same competition that is now a part of the entire health care industry. With that in mind,
Durham Regional Hospital is making a conscious effort to provide the highest quality of
care while also controlling costs.
To assist with cost control efforts, Durham Regional Hospital uses Premiers CustomerBased Management Engineering program. Premiers management engineers are very

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involved with the hospitals reengineering and work redesign projects. Simulation is one of
the tools the management engineers use to assist in the redesign of hospital services and
processes. Since the hospital was preparing to add an outpatient services area that was to
open in May 1997, a MedModel simulation project was requested by Durham Regional
Hospital to see how this Express Services area would impact their other outpatient areas.
This project involved the addition of an outpatient Express Services addition. The
Express Services area is made up of two radiology rooms, four phlebotomy lab stations, a
patient interview room, and an EKG room. The model was set up to examine which kind
of patients would best be serviced in that area, what hours the clinic would operate, and
what stafng levels would be necessary to provide optimum care.

The Model
Data were collected from each department with potential Express Services patients. The
new Express Services area would eliminate the current reception desk in the main radiology department; all radiology outpatients would have their order entry at Express Services.
In scal year 1996, the radiology department registered 21,159 outpatients. Of those, onethird could have had their procedure performed in Express Services. An average of 18 outpatient surgery patients are seen each week for their preadmission testing. All these patients
could have their preadmission tests performed in the Express Services area. The laboratory
sees approximately 14 walk-in phlebotomy patients per week. Of those, 10 patients are
simple collections and 4 are considered complex. The simple collections can be performed
by anyone trained in phlebotomy. The complex collections should be done by skilled lab
personnel. The collections for all of these patients could be performed in Express Services.
Based on the data, 25 patients a day from the Convenient Care Clinic will need simple
X rays and could also use the Express Services area. Procedure times for each patient were
determined from previous data collection and observation.
The model was built in two months. Durham Regional Hospital had used simulation in
the past for both Emergency Department and Ambulatory Care Unit redesign projects and
thus the management team was convinced of its efcacy. After the model was completed, it
was presented to department managers from all affected areas. The model was presented to
the assembled group in order to validate the data and assumptions. To test for validity, the
model was run for 30 replications, with each replication lasting a period of two weeks. The
results were measured against known values.

The Results
The model showed that routing all Convenient Care Clinic patients through Express
Services would create a bottleneck in the imaging rooms. This would create unacceptable
wait times for the radiology patients and the Convenient Care patients. Creating a model
scenario where Convenient Care patients were accepted only after 5:00 P.M. showed that
the anticipated problem could be eliminated. The model also showed that the weekend volume would be very low. Even at minimum stafng levels, the radiology technicians and
clerks would be underutilized. The recommendation was made to close the Express Services area on the weekends. Finally, the model showed that the stafng levels could be
lower than had been planned. For example, the workload for the outpatient lab tech drops
off after 6:00 P.M. The recommendation was to eliminate outpatient lab techs after 6:00 P.M.
Further savings could be achieved by cross-training the radiology technicians and possibly
the clerks to perform simple phlebotomy. This would also provide for backup during busy

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times. The savings for the simulation efforts were projected to be $148,762 annually. These
savings were identied from the difference in stafng levels initially requested for Express
Services and the levels that were validated after the simulation model results were analyzed, as well as the closing of the clinic on weekends. This model would also be used in
the future to test possible changes to Express Services. Durham Regional Hospital would
be able to make minor adjustments to the area and visualize the outcome before implementation. Since this was a new area, they would also be able to test minor changes before
the area was opened.
The results of the model allowed the hospital to avoid potential bottlenecks in the radiology department, reduce the proposed stafng levels in the Express Services area, and validate that the clinic should be closed on weekends. As stated by Dottie Hughes, director of
Radiology Services: The simulation model allowed us to see what changes needed to be
made before the area is opened. By making these changes now, we anticipate a shorter wait
time for our patients than if the simulation had not been used. The simulation results were
able to show that an annual savings of $148,762 could be expected by altering some of the
preconceived Express Services plan.

Future Applications
Larry Suitt, senior vice president, explains, Simulation has proved to be a valuable tool for
our hospital. It has allowed us to evaluate changes in processes before money is spent on
construction. It has also helped us to redesign existing services to better meet the needs of
our patients. Durham Regional Hospital will continue to use simulation in new projects to
improve its health care processes. The hospital is responsible for the ambulance service for
the entire county. After the 911 call is received, the hospitals ambulance service picks up
the patient and takes him or her to the nearest hospital. Durham Regional Hospital is planning to use simulation to evaluate how relocating some of the ambulances to other stations
will affect the response time to the 911 calls.

Questions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Why was this a good application for simulation?

What key elements of the study made the project successful?
What specic decisions were made as a result of the simulation study?
What economic benet was able to be shown from the project?
What insights did you gain from this case study about the way simulation is used?

References
Banks, Jerry, and Randall R. Gibson. Selecting Simulation Software. IIE Solutions, May
1997, pp. 2932.
Kelton, W. D. Statistical Issues in Simulation. In Proceedings of the 1996 Winter
Simulation Conference, ed. J. Charnes, D. Morrice, D. Brunner, and J. Swain, 1996,
pp. 4754.
Pritsker, Alan B., and Claude Dennis Pegden. Introduction to Simulation and SLAM.
New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1979.
Schrage, Michael. Serious Play: How the Worlds Best Companies Simulate to Innovate.
Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1999.

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DATA COLLECTION
AND ANALYSIS

You can observe a lot just by watching.

Yogi Berra

6.1 Introduction
In the previous chapter, we discussed the importance of having clearly dened
objectives and a well-organized plan for conducting a simulation study. In this
chapter, we look at the data-gathering phase of a simulation project that denes
the system being modeled. The result of the data-gathering effort is a conceptual
or mental model of how the system is congured and how it operates. This conceptual model may take the form of a written description, a ow diagram, or even
a simple sketch on the back of an envelope. It becomes the basis for the simulation model that will be created.
Data collection is the most challenging and time-consuming task in simulation. For new systems, information is usually very sketchy and only roughly estimated. For existing systems, there may be years of raw, unorganized data to sort
through. Information is seldom available in a form that is directly usable in building a simulation model. It nearly always needs to be ltered and massaged to get it
into the right format and to reect the projected conditions under which the system
is to be analyzed. Many data-gathering efforts end up with lots of data but little useful information. Data should be gathered purposefully to avoid wasting not only
the modelers time but also the time of individuals who are supplying the data.
This chapter presents guidelines and procedures for gathering data. Statistical
techniques for analyzing data and tting probability distributions to data are also
discussed. The following questions are answered:
What is the best procedure to follow when gathering data?
What types of data should be gathered?
125

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What sources should be used when gathering data?

What types of analyses should be performed on the data?
How do you select the right probability distribution that represents the
data?
How should data be documented?

6.2 Guidelines for Data Gathering

Data gathering should not be performed haphazardly with the idea that you will
sort through all the information once it is collected. Data should be collected systematically, seeking specic items of information that are needed for building the
model. If approached with the end in mind, data gathering will be much more productive. Following are a few guidelines to keep in mind when gathering data that
will help maintain a purposeful focus.
1. Identify triggering events. When dening the activities that occur in the
system to be modeled, it is important to identify the causes or conditions
that trigger the activities. In gathering downtime data, for example, it is
useful to distinguish between downtimes due to failure, planned or
scheduled downtimes, and downtimes that are actually idle periods due
to unavailability of stock. In other words, you need to know the cause of
the downtime. Questions should be asked such as What triggers the
movement of entities? and What triggers the use of a particular resource?
To be valid, a model needs to capture the right triggering events that
initiate the activities within the system.
2. Focus only on key impact factors. Discrimination should be used when
gathering data to avoid wasting time tracking down information that has
little or no impact on system performance. For example, off-shift
activities such as preventive maintenance that do not delay the process
ow should be ignored because they are performed during off-hours.
Similarly, extremely rare downtimes, negligible move times, on-the-y
inspections, external setups, and other activities that have little or no
impact on the overall ow may be safely ignored.
3. Isolate actual activity times. In determining activity times, it is important
to isolate only the time it takes to do the activity itself, excluding any
extraneous time waiting for material and resources so the activity can be
performed. For example, lling a customer order or performing an
assembly operation requires that items or component parts rst be
available. The time to wait for items or parts should not be included in
the time to do the actual assembly. This waiting time is going to vary
based on conditions in the system and therefore cant be known in
advance. It will be known only as the simulation is run. In some
instances, isolating actual activity times may be difcult, especially
when dealing with historical data reecting aggregate times. Historical

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records of repair times, for example, often lump together the time spent
waiting for repair personnel to become available and the actual time
spent performing the repair. What you would like to do is separate the
waiting time from the actual repair time because the waiting time is
a function of the availability of the repair person, which may vary
depending on the system operation.
4. Look for common groupings. When dealing with lots of variety in a
simulation such as hundreds of part types or customer proles, it helps to
look for common groupings or patterns. If, for example, you are
modeling a process that has 300 entity types, it may be difcult to get
information on the exact mix and all of the varied routings that can
occur. Having such detailed information is usually too cumbersome to
work with even if you did have it. The solution is to reduce the data
to common behaviors and patterns. One way to group common data is to
rst identify general categories into which all data can be assigned. Then
the percentage of cases that fall within each category is calculated or
estimated. It is not uncommon for beginning modelers to attempt to use
actual logged input streams such as customer arrivals or material
shipments when building a model. After struggling to dene hundreds of
individual arrivals or routings, it begins to dawn on them that they can
group this information into a few categories and assign probabilities that
any given instance will fall within a particular category. This allows
dozens and sometimes hundreds of unique instances to be described in a
few brief commands. The secret to identifying common groupings is to
think probabilistically.
5. Focus on essence rather than substance. A system denition for
modeling purposes should capture the cause-and-effect relationships
and ignore the meaningless (to simulation) details. This is called system
abstraction and seeks to dene the essence of system behavior rather
than the substance. A system should be abstracted to the highest level
possible while still preserving the essence of the system operation.
Using this black box approach to system denition, we are not
concerned about the nature of the activity being performed, such as
milling, grinding, or inspection. We are interested only in the impact
that the activity has on the use of resources and the delay of entity
ow. A procient modeler constantly is thinking abstractly about the
system operation and avoids getting caught up in the mechanics of the
process.
6. Separate input variables from response variables. First-time modelers
often confuse input variables that dene the operation of the system with
response variables that report system performance. Input variables dene
how the system works (activity times, routing sequences, and the like)
and should be the focus of the data gathering. Response variables describe
how the system responds to a given set of input variables (amount of
work in process, resource utilization, throughput times, and so on).

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Response variables do not drive model behavior. Performance or

response data should be of interest only if you are building an as-is model
and want to validate the simulation by comparing the simulation output
with actual performance.
Following these guidelines, the data-gathering effort will be much more productive. In addition to keeping these guidelines in mind, it is also helpful to follow a logical sequence of steps when gathering data. This ensures that time and
efforts are well spent. The steps to gathering data should follow roughly this
sequence:
Step 1:
Step 2:
Step 3:
Step 4:
Step 5:
Step 6:

Determine data requirements.

Identify data sources.
Collect the data.
Make assumptions where necessary.
Analyze the data.
Document and approve the data.

Of course, most of these steps overlap, and some iteration will occur as
objectives change and assumptions are rened. The balance of this chapter is
devoted to providing recommendations and examples of how to perform each of
these steps.

6.3 Determining Data Requirements

The rst step in gathering data is to determine the data required for building the
model. This should be dictated primarily by the model scope and level of detail
required for achieving the objectives of the simulation. System data can be categorized as structural data, operational data, or numerical data.

6.3.1 Structural Data

Structural data involve all of the objects in the system to be modeled. This includes
such elements as entities (products, customers, and so on), resources (operators,
machines) and locations (waiting areas, workstations). Structural information basically describes the layout or conguration of the system as well as identies the
items that are processed. It is important that all relevant components that affect the
behavior of the system be included.

6.3.2 Operational Data

Operational data explain how the system operatesthat is, when, where, and how
events and activities take place. Operational data consist of all the logical or
behavioral information about the system such as routings, schedules, downtime
behavior, and resource allocation. If the process is structured and well controlled,

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operational information is easy to dene. If, on the other hand, the process has
evolved into an informal operation with no set rules, it can be very difcult to dene. For a system to be simulated, operating policies that are undened and
ambiguous must be codied into dened procedures and rules. If decisions and
outcomes vary, it is important to at least dene this variability statistically using
probability expressions or distributions.

6.3.3 Numerical Data

Numerical data provide quantitative information about the system. Examples of
numerical data include capacities, arrival rates, activity times, and time between
failures. Some numerical values are easily determined, such as resource capacities
and working hours. Other values are more difcult to assess, such as time between
failures or routing probabilities. This is especially true if the system being modeled is new and data are unavailable. It is important when gathering numerical
data to ask exactly what a particular data value represents. For example, in collecting machining times, one should ask whether the time reects load and unload
time or tool adjustments, and whether it is for processing a batch of parts rather
than individual parts.

6.3.4 Use of a Questionnaire

To help focus data-gathering efforts on the right information and to ensure productive meetings with others on whom you depend for model information, it may
be useful to prepare a questionnaire for use in interviews. It is much easier for
people to respond to specic questions than to puzzle over and guess at what information is needed. When conducting an interview, sometimes giving the contact
person a specic list of questions in advance reduces the length of the interview
and the number of follow-up visits that would otherwise be needed.
Below is a list of questions that might be included in a questionnaire. For any
questions requiring numeric information that could take the form of a random variable, it is best if either a good sample of data or the actual dening probability distribution can be obtained. If sample data are unavailable, it is useful to get at least
estimates of the minimum, most likely, and maximum values until more precise data
can be obtained. Average values should be used only as preliminary estimates.
System Description Questionnaire

1. What types of entities are processed in the system?

2. What is the routing sequence (each stopping or decision point) for each
entity type?
3. Where, when, and in what quantities do entities enter the system?
4. What are the time and resource requirements for each operation and
move?
5. In what quantities are entities processed and moved? (Dene for each
location.)

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6. What triggers entity movement from location to location (completion of

the operation, accumulation of a batch, a signal from a downstream
location, etc.)?
7. How do locations and resources determine which job to do next (oldest
waiting, highest priority, etc.)?
8. How are alternative routing and operation decisions made (percentage,
condition, etc.)?
9. How often do interruptions occur (setups, downtimes, etc.) and what
resources and time are required when they happen?
10. What is the schedule of availability for locations and resources (dene
in terms of shifts, break times, scheduled maintenance intervals, etc.)?
Answers to these questions should provide most if not all of the information
needed to build a model. Depending on the nature of the system and level of detail
required, additional questions may be added.

6.4 Identifying Data Sources

Rarely is all the information needed to build a model available from a single
source. It is usually the result of reviewing reports, conducting personal interviews, making personal observations, and making lots of assumptions. It has
been my experience, notes Carson (1986), that for large-scale real systems,
there is seldom any one individual who understands how the system works in sufcient detail to build an accurate simulation model. The modeler must be willing
to be a bit of a detective to ferret out the necessary knowledge. This is where
persistence, careful observation, and good communication skills pay off.
The types of sources to use when gathering data will depend largely on whether
you are simulating an existing system or a new system. For existing systems, there
will be a much wider range of sources from which to draw since there are records
and individuals with rsthand knowledge of the system. The fact that the system exists also permits the modeler to personally observe the system and therefore be less
dependent on the input of othersalthough collaboration in data gathering is always recommended. For new systems, the sources of information are usually limited to those individuals directly involved in the design of the system. Most of the
information is obtained from system specications and personal interviews with
the design team. Depending on the circumstances, good sources of data include

Historical recordsproduction, sales, scrap rates, equipment reliability.

System documentationprocess plans, facility layouts, work procedures.
Personal observationfacility walk-through, time studies, work sampling.
Personal interviewsoperators (work methods), maintenance personnel
(repair procedures), engineers (routings), managers (schedules and
forecasts).
Comparison with similar systemswithin the company, within the same
industry, within any industry.

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Vendor claimsprocess times, reliability of new machines.

Design estimatesprocess times, move times, and so on for a new system.
Research literaturepublished research on learning curves,
predetermined time studies.
In deciding whether to use a particular data source, it is important to consider
the reliability and accessibility of the source. Reliability of the source directly
impacts the validity of the model. A managers recollection, for example, may not
be as reliable as actual production logs. Opinions are frequently biased and tend
to provide distorted information. Objectivity should be sought when using any
data source.
Accessibility is also an important factor in source selection. If the source is difcult to access, such as historical data led away in some corporate archive or
buried somewhere among hundreds of reports, it may have to be overlooked. If the
system spans several businesses, such as a supply chain, there even may be an unwillingness to disclose information. The principle to follow is to nd out what
sources are accessible and then use the sources that provide the most reliable and
complete information. Secondary sources can always validate the primary source.

6.5 Collecting the Data

When gathering data, it is best to go from general to specic. In practice, data
gathering continues through to the end of the simulation project as objectives
change and information that was unavailable at the beginning of the project begins to materialize. Consistent with this progressive renement approach, data
should be gathered in the following sequence:
1. Dene the overall entity ow.
2. Develop a description of operation.
3. Dene incidental details and rm up data values.
This doesnt necessarily mean that data will become available in this sequence. It
only means that the focus of attention should follow this order. For example, some
assumptions may need to be made initially to come up with a complete denition
of entity ow. Other incidental information obtained early on, such as downtimes,
may need to be set aside until it is needed at a later stage of model building.

6.5.1 Dening the Entity Flow

The rst area of focus in data collection should be in dening the basic entity ow
through the system. This establishes a skeletal framework to which additional
data can be attached. The entity ow is dened by following the entity movement
through the system, taking the perspective of the entity itself. The overall entity
ow is best described using an entity ow diagram (see Figure 6.1) or perhaps by
superimposing the entity ow on an actual layout of the system.
An entity ow diagram is slightly different from a process owchart. A
process owchart shows the logical sequence of activities through which entities

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Product A

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Entity ow diagram.

Station 1

Station 2

Station 3A

Station 3B

FIGURE 6.2
Entity ow diagram
for patient processing
at Dr. Browns ofce.

Check-in
counter
Patient

Waiting
room

Exam
room
(3)

Checkout
counter

go and denes what happens to the entity, not where it happens. An entity ow
diagram, on the other hand, is more of a routing chart that shows the physical
movement of entities through the system from location to location. An entity ow
diagram should depict any branching that may occur in the ow such as routings
to alternative work centers or rework loops. The purpose of the entity ow diagram is to document the overall ow of entities in the system and to provide a
visual aid for communicating the entity ow to others. A ow diagram is easy to
understand and gets everyone thinking in the same way about the system. It can
easily be expanded as additional information is gathered to show activity times,
where resources are used, and so forth.

6.5.2 Developing a Description of Operation

Once an entity ow diagram has been created, a description of operation should
be developed that explains how entities are processed through the system. A description of operation may be written in a step-by-step, brief narrative form, or it
may be represented in tabular form. For simple systems, the entity ow diagram
itself can be annotated with operational information. Whatever the form, it should
identify for each type of entity at each location in the system
The time and resource requirements of the activity or operation.
Where, when, and in what quantities entities get routed next.
The time and resource requirements for moving to the next location.
Example: Patients enter Dr. Browns ofce and sign in at the check-in counter before
taking a seat to wait for the nurses call. Patients are summoned to one of three examination rooms when one becomes available. The nurse escorts patients to the examination room, where they wait for Dr. Brown to see them. After treatment, patients return
on their own to the checkout counter, where they make payment and possibly reschedule another visit. This process is shown in the entity ow diagram in Figure 6.2.

Using the entity ow diagram and information provided, a summary description of operation is created using a table format, as shown in Table 6.1.

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TABLE 6.1 Process Description for Dr. Browns Ofce

Location

Activity
Time

Activity
Resource

Next
Location

Check-in counter
Waiting room

N(1,.2) min.
None

Secretary
None

Waiting room
Exam room

Exam room
Checkout counter

N(15,4) min.
N(3,.5) min.

Doctor
Secretary

Checkout counter
Exit

Move
Trigger

Move
Time

Move
Resource

None
When room is
available
None
None

0.2 min.
0.8 min.*

None
Nurse

0.2 min.
None

None
None

*Stops to get weighed on the way.

Notice that the description of operation really provides the details of the entity ow diagram. This detail is needed for dening the simulation model. The
times associated with activities and movements can be just estimates at this stage.
The important thing to accomplish at this point is simply to describe how entities
are processed through the system.
The entity ow diagram, together with the description of operation, provides
a good data document that can be expanded as the project progresses. At this
point, it is a good idea to conduct a structured walk-through of the operation using
the entity ow diagram as the focal point. Individuals should be involved in this
review who are familiar with the operation to ensure that the description of operation is accurate and complete.
Based on this description of operation, a rst cut at building the model can
begin. Using ProModel, a model for simulating Dr. Browns practice can be built
in a matter of just a few minutes. Little translation is needed as both the diagram
(Figure 6.2) and the data table (Table 6.1) can be entered pretty much in the same
way they are shown. The only additional modeling information required to build
a running model is the interarrival time of patients.
Getting a basic model up and running early in a simulation project helps hold
the interest of stakeholders. It also helps identify missing information and motivates team members to try to ll in these information gaps. Additional questions
about the operation of the system are usually raised once a basic model is running.
Some of the questions that begin to be asked are Have all of the routings been
accounted for? and Have any entities been overlooked? In essence, modeling the
system actually helps dene and validate system data.

6.5.3 Dening Incidental Details and Rening Data Values

Once a basic model has been constructed and tested, additional details of the
process such as downtimes, setups, and work priorities can be added. This information is not essential to getting a running model, but is necessary for a complete
and accurate model. Sometimes the decision of whether to include a particular element of the system such as a downtime is easier to make once the basic model is
running. The potential impact of the element and the time available to implement
it in the model are much clearer than at the start of the project.

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At this point, any numerical values such as activity times, arrival rates, and
others should also be rmed up. Having a running model enables estimates and
other assumptions to be tested to see if it is necessary to spend additional time getting more accurate information. For existing systems, obtaining more accurate
data is usually accomplished by conducting time studies of the activity or event
under investigation. A sample is gathered to represent all conditions under which
the activity or event occurs. Any biases that do not represent normal operating
conditions are eliminated. The sample size should be large enough to provide
an accurate picture yet not so large that it becomes costly without really adding
additional information.

6.6 Making Assumptions

A simulation model can run with incorrect data, but it cant run with incomplete
data. Using an architectural metaphor, a computer model is less like an artists
rendition of a building and much more like a full set of blueprintscomplete with
dimensions and material lists. This is one of the reasons why simulation is so
benecial. It gets down to the operational details that actually dene how the
system runs.
It doesnt take long after data gathering has commenced to realize that certain
information is unavailable or perhaps unreliable. Complete, accurate, and up-todate information is rarely obtainable, especially when modeling a new system
about which little is known. Even for existing systems, it may be impractical to
obtain certain types of data, such as long time intervals between machine failures.
Because the reliability of information on new systems is often questionable,
the validity of the model itself is going to be suspect. Accurate information is
going to be lacking in at least one or more areas of almost any modeleven in
models of existing systems. Because a simulation nearly always is run for some
future anticipated situation, there are always going to be assumptions made regarding any unknown future conditions. In simulation, we must be content to
begin with assumptions and be grateful whenever we can make assertions.
Since a model that is based on assumptions is automatically invalid, the question might be raised, What good is a simulation that is based on assumptions? We
forget that we routinely make decisions in life based on assumptions and therefore
can never be quite sure of the outcome. Any prediction about how a system will
operate in the future is based on assumptions about the future. There is nothing
wrong with making assumptions when doing simulation as long as our condence
in the results never exceeds our condence in the underlying assumptions. The
reason for doing simulation is to be able to predict system performance based on
given assumptions. It is better to make decisions knowing the implications of our
assumptions than to compound the error of our decision by drawing erroneous
inferences from these assumptions. Incorporating assumptions into a model can
actually help validate our assumptions by seeing whether they make sense in the
overall operation of the model. Seeing absurd behavior may tell us that certain assumptions just dont make sense.

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For comparative studies in which two design alternatives are evaluated, the
fact that assumptions are made is less signicant because we are evaluating
relative performance, not absolute performance. For example, if we are trying to
determine whether on-time deliveries can be improved by assigning tasks to a
resource by due date rather than by rst-come, rst-served, a simulation can provide useful information to make this decision without necessarily having completely accurate data. Because both models use the same assumptions, it may be
possible to compare relative performance. We may not know what the absolute
performance of the best option is, but we should be able to assess fairly accurately
how much better one option is than another.
Some assumptions will naturally have a greater inuence on the validity of a
model than others. For example, in a system with large processing times compared to move times, a move time that is off by 20 percent may make little or no
difference in system throughput. On the other hand, an activity time that is off by
20 percent could make a 20 percent difference in throughput. One way to assess
the inuence of an assumption on the validity of a model is through sensitivity
analysis. Sensitivity analysis, in which a range of values is tested for potential impact on model performance, can indicate just how accurate an assumption needs
to be. A decision can then be made to rm up the assumption or to leave it as is.
If, for example, the degree of variation in a particular activity time has little or no
impact on system performance, then a constant activity time may be used. At the
other extreme, it may be found that even the type of distribution has a noticeable
impact on model behavior and therefore needs to be selected carefully.
A simple approach to sensitivity analysis for a particular assumption is to run
three different scenarios showing (1) a best or most optimistic case, (2) a
worst or most pessimistic case, and (3) a most likely or best-guess case. These
runs will help determine the extent to which the assumption inuences model
behavior. It will also help assess the risk of relying on the particular assumption.

6.7 Statistical Analysis of Numerical Data

To be of use in a simulation model, raw data must be analyzed and interpreted so
that the system operation is correctly represented in the model. Triggering events
and other cause-and-effect relationships need to be identied. Irrelevant or
insignicant data need to be discarded. Actual activity times need to be isolated
from system-caused delays. The numerous instances of a particular activity need
to be generalized into a few dening patterns. Complex operation descriptions
need to be translated into simplied abstractions. Input or dening system variables need to be separated from output or response variables. Finally, summarized
historical data should be projected forward to the time period being studied by the
simulation. Information to help adjust data for the future can be obtained from
sales forecasts, market trends, or business plans.
Prior to developing a representation of the data, the data should be analyzed
to ascertain their suitability for use in the simulation model. Data characteristics
such as independence (randomness), homogeneity (the data come from the same

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FIGURE 6.3
Descriptive statistics
for a sample data set
of 100 observations.

TABLE 6.2 100 Observed Inspection Times (Minutes)

0.99
1.30
1.20
0.67
0.67
0.79
1.20
0.60
0.43
1.00

0.41
0.67
0.98
1.70
0.51
0.78
0.49
1.30
1.60
0.65

0.89
0.64
0.89
1.40
0.72
0.49
0.92
1.30
1.20
0.82

0.59
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.76
1.10
1.50
1.40
0.49
0.52

0.98
0.57
0.97
1.00
0.61
0.74
1.10
1.30
0.35
0.52

0.47
0.87
1.30
0.88
0.37
0.97
0.64
0.96
0.41
0.80

0.70
0.43
1.20
0.52
0.66
0.93
0.96
0.95
0.54
0.72

0.94
0.97
1.10
1.30
0.75
0.76
0.87
1.60
0.83
1.20

0.39
1.20
1.00
0.59
1.10
0.66
1.10
0.58
1.20
0.59

0.92
1.50
0.44
0.35
0.76
0.57
0.50
1.10
0.99
1.60

distribution), and stationarity (the distribution of the data doesnt change with time)
should be determined. Using data analysis software such as Stat::Fit, data sets can
be automatically analyzed, tested for usefulness in a simulation, and matched to the
best-tting underlying distribution. Stat::Fit is bundled with ProModel and can be
accessed from the Tools menu after opening ProModel. To illustrate how data are
analyzed and converted to a form for use in simulation, lets take a look at a data set
containing 100 observations of an inspection operation time, shown in Table 6.2.
By entering these data or importing them from a le into Stat::Fit, a descriptive analysis of the data set can be performed. The summary of this analysis is
displayed in Figure 6.3. These parameters describe the entire sample collection.
Because reference will be made later to some of these parameters, a brief denition of each is given below.
Meanthe average value of the data.
Medianthe value of the middle observation when the data are sorted in
ascending order.

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Modethe value that occurs with the greatest frequency.

Standard deviationa measure of the average deviation from the mean.
Variancethe square of the standard deviation.
Coefcient of variationthe standard deviation divided by the mean. This
value provides a relative measure of the standard deviation to the mean.
Skewnessa measure of symmetry. If the maximum data value is farther
from the mean than the minimum data value, the data will be skewed to the
right, or positively skewed. Otherwise they are skewed to the left, or
negatively skewed.
Kurtosisa measure of the atness or peakedness of the distribution.
Another value of interest is the range, which is simply the difference between the
maximum and minimum values.
A descriptive analysis tells us key characteristics about the data set, but it does
not tell us how suitable the data are for use in a simulation model. What we would
like to be able to do is t a theoretical distribution, such as a normal or beta distribution, to the sample data set. This requires that the data be independent (truly
random) and identically distributed (they all come from the same distribution).
When gathering data from a dynamic and possibly time-varying system, one must
be sensitive to trends, patterns, and cycles that may occur with time. The sample
data points may be somewhat codependent, or they may come from multiple
sources and therefore may not be identically distributed. Specic tests can be performed to determine whether data are independent and identically distributed.

6.7.1 Tests for Independence

Data are independent if the value of one observation is not inuenced by the value
of another observation. Dependence is common in sampling from a nite population when sampling is performed without replacement. For example, in sampling
from a deck of cards to nd the probability of drawing an ace, the probability of
the next card being an ace increases with each draw that is not an ace. The proba4
bility of drawing an ace in the rst draw is 52
. If no ace is drawn, the probability
4
of drawing an ace in the second draw is 51 . If, however, the drawn card is replaced
4
each time, the probability remains the same ( 52
) for each draw.
For very large or innite populations such as ongoing activities or repeating
events, data dependence usually manifests itself when the value of an observation
is inuenced by the value of the previous observation. In sampling the probability
that an item will be defective, for example, sometimes there is a greater probability of a defective item occurring if the previous item was defective (defectives frequently occur in waves). Perhaps the time to perform a manual cutting operation
increases each time due to the blade becoming dull. Finally, when the blade is
sharpened, the activity time is reduced back to the original starting time. When the
value of an observation is dependent on the value of a previous observation, the
data are said to be correlated. Table 6.3 shows outdoor temperature recordings
taken randomly throughout the day from 8:00 A.M. to 8:00 P.M. (read left to right).
As would be expected, sampled temperatures are not independent because they
depend largely on the time of day.

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TABLE 6.3 100 Outdoor Temperature Readings from 8:00 A.M. to 8:00 P.M.
57
63
70
75
80
83
79
75
71
67

57
63
71
75
81
83
79
74
70
67

58
64
72
76
81
83
78
73
70
66

59
64
72
77
82
82
77
73
70
66

59
65
73
78
83
82
77
72
70
66

60
66
74
78
83
81
76
72
69
65

60
66
73
79
84
81
76
72
69
66

62
68
74
80
84
80
75
71
68
65

62
68
75
80
83
81
74
71
68
65

62
69
75
81
84
80
75
71
68
64

Several techniques are used to determine data dependence or correlation.

Three techniques discussed here include the scatter plot, autocorrelation plot, and
runs test. Any of these procedures can be performed on data sets using Stat::Fit.
They are each specic to different scales of randomness, so all must be passed to
conclude data independence. The scatter plot and autocorrelation plot are parametric statistical tests in which the nature of the plot depends on the underlying
distribution of the data. The runs test is nonparametric and makes no assumption
about the distribution of the data. We explain how each is used.
Scatter Plot
This is a plot of adjacent points in the sequence of observed values plotted against
each other. Thus each plotted point represents a pair of consecutive observations
(Xi, Xi+1) for i = 1, 2, . . . , n 1. This procedure is repeated for all adjacent data
points so that 100 observations would result in 99 plotted points. If the Xis are
independent, the points will be scattered randomly. If, however, the data are
dependent on each other, a trend line will be apparent. If the Xis are positively
correlated, a positively sloped trend line will appear. Negatively correlated Xis
will produce a negatively sloped line. A scatter plot is a simple way to detect
strongly dependent behavior.
Figure 6.4 shows a plot of paired observations using the 100 inspection times
from Table 6.2. Notice that the points are scattered randomly with no dened pattern, indicating that the observations are independent.
Figure 6.5 is a plot of the 100 temperature observations shown in Table 6.3.
Notice the strong positive correlation.
Autocorrelation Plot
If observations in a sample are independent, they are also uncorrelated. Correlated
data are dependent on each other and are said to be autocorrelated. A measure of
the autocorrelation, rho (), can be calculated using the equation
=

n j


(xi x)(x
i+ j x)

2 (n j)

i=1

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FIGURE 6.4
Scatter plot showing
uncorrelated data.

FIGURE 6.5
Scatter plot showing
correlated temperature
data.

where j is the lag or distance between data points; is the standard deviation of
the population, approximated by the standard deviation of the sample; and X is
the sample mean. The calculation is carried out to 15 of the length of the data set,
where diminishing pairs start to make the calculation unreliable.
This calculation of autocorrelation assumes that the data are taken from a stationary process; that is, the data would appear to come from the same distribution
regardless of when the data were sampled (that is, the data are time invariant). In
the case of a time series, this implies that the time origin may be shifted without

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FIGURE 6.6
Autocorrelation
graph showing
noncorrelation.

FIGURE 6.7
Autocorrelation graph
showing correlation.

affecting the statistical characteristics of the series. Thus the variance for the whole
sample can be used to represent the variance of any subset. If the process being
studied is not stationary, the calculation of autocorrelation is more complex.
The autocorrelation value varies between 1 and 1 (that is, between positive
and negative correlation). If the autocorrelation is near either extreme, the data are
autocorrelated. Figure 6.6 shows an autocorrelation plot for the 100 inspection
time observations from Table 6.2. Notice that the values are near zero, indicating

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FIGURE 6.8
Runs test based on
points above and
below the median and
number of turning
points.

little or no correlation. The numbers in parentheses below the x axis are the maximum autocorrelation in both the positive and negative directions.
Figure 6.7 is an autocorrelation plot for the sampled temperatures in
Table 6.3. The graph shows a broad autocorrelation.
Runs Tests
The runs test looks for runs in the data that might indicate data correlation. A run
in a series of observations is the occurrence of an uninterrupted sequence of numbers showing the same trend. For instance, a consecutive set of increasing or
decreasing numbers is said to provide runs up or down respectively. Two
types of runs tests that can be made are the median test and the turning point test.
Both of these tests can be conducted automatically on data using Stat::Fit. The runs
test for the 100 sample inspection times in Table 6.2 is summarized in Figure 6.8.
The result of each test is either do not reject the hypothesis that the series is random

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or reject that hypothesis with the level of signicance given. The level of signicance is the probability that a rejected hypothesis is actually truethat is, that the
test rejects the randomness of the series when the series is actually random.
The median test measures the number of runsthat is, sequences of numbers, above and below the median. The run can be a single number above or below
the median if the numbers adjacent to it are in the opposite direction. If there are
too many or too few runs, the randomness of the series is rejected. This median
runs test uses a normal approximation for acceptance or rejection that requires
that the number of data points above or below the median be greater than 10.
The turning point test measures the number of times the series changes direction (see Johnson, Kotz, and Kemp 1992). Again, if there are too many turning
points or too few, the randomness of the series is rejected. This turning point runs
test uses a normal approximation for acceptance or rejection that requires more
than 12 data points.
While there are many other runs tests for randomness, some of the most sensitive require larger data sets, in excess of 4,000 numbers (see Knuth 1981).
The number of runs in a series of observations indicates the randomness of
those observations. A few runs indicate strong correlation, point to point. Several
runs may indicate cyclic behavior.

6.7.2 Tests for Identically Distributed Data

When collecting sample data, often it is necessary to determine whether the data
in a single data set come from the same population (they are identically distributed) or whether they represent multiple populations. In other instances, it is
desirable to determine whether two or more data sets can be treated as having
come from the same population or whether they need to be kept as separate populations. There are several ways to determine whether data come from the same
population. These are sometimes called tests for homogeneity.
Lets look at the rst case of determining whether data from a single data set
are identically distributed. The rst inclination when gathering data dening a
particular activity time or event interval is to assume that they are identically distributed. Upon closer examination, however, it is sometimes discovered that they
are actually nonhomogeneous data. Examples of data sets that tend to be nonhomogeneous include
Activity times that are longer or shorter depending on the type of entity
being processed.
Interarrival times that uctuate in length depending on the time of day or
day of the week.
Time between failures and time to repair where the failure may result
from a number of different causes.
In each of these instances, the data collected may actually represent multiple
populations.
Testing to see if data are identically distributed can be done in several ways.
One approach is to visually inspect the distribution to see if it has more than one
mode. You may nd, for example, that a plot of observed downtime values is

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bimodal, as shown in Figure 6.9. The fact that there are two clusters of data indicates that there are at least two distinct causes of downtimes, each producing
different distributions for repair times. Perhaps after examining the cause of the
downtimes, it is discovered that some were due to part jams that were quickly
xed while others were due to mechanical failures that took longer to repair.
One type of nonhomogeneous data occurs when the distribution changes over
time. This is different from two or more distributions manifesting themselves over
the same time period such as that caused by mixed types of downtimes. An example of a time-changing distribution might result from an operator who works 20 percent faster during the second hour of a shift than during the rst hour. Over long periods of time, a learning curve phenomenon occurs where workers perform at a
faster rate as they gain experience on the job. Such distributions are called nonstationary or time variant because of their time-changing nature. A common example
of a distribution that changes with time is the arrival rate of customers to a service
facility. Customer arrivals to a bank or store, for example, tend to occur at a rate that
uctuates throughout the day. Nonstationary distributions can be detected by plotting subgroups of data that occur within successive time intervals. For example,
sampled arrivals between 8 A.M. and 9 A.M. can be plotted separately from arrivals
between 9 A.M. and 10 A.M., and so on. If the distribution is of a different type or is
the same distribution but shifted up or down such that the mean changes value over
time, the distribution is nonstationary. This fact will need to be taken into account
when dening the model behavior. Figure 6.10 is a plot of customer arrival rates for
a department store occurring by half-hour interval between 10 A.M. and 6 P.M.
FIGURE 6.9

Part jams

Mechanical failures

Frequency of
occurrence

Bimodal distribution of
downtimes indicating
multiple causes.

Repair time

Change in rate of
customer arrivals
between 10 A.M. and
6 P.M.

Rate of arrival

FIGURE 6.10

10:00 A.M.

12:00 noon

2:00 P.M.
Time of day

4:00 P.M.

6:00 P.M.

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Note that while the type of distribution (Poisson) is the same for each period, the
rate (and hence the mean interarrival time) changes every half hour.
The second case we look at is where two sets of data have been gathered and we
desire to know whether they come from the same population or are identically distributed. Situations where this type of testing is useful include the following:
Interarrival times have been gathered for different days and you want to
know if the data collected for each day come from the same distribution.
Activity times for two different operators were collected and you want to
know if the same distribution can be used for both operators.
Time to failure has been gathered on four similar machines and you are
interested in knowing if they are all identically distributed.
One easy way to tell whether two sets of data have the same distribution is to
run Stat::Fit and see what distribution best ts each data set. If the same distribution ts both sets of data, you can assume that they come from the same population. If in doubt, they can simply be modeled as separate distributions.
Several formal tests exist for determining whether two or more data sets can
be assumed to come from identical populations. Some of them apply to specic
families of distributions such as analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests for normally
distributed data. Other tests are distribution independent and can be applied to
compare data sets having any distribution, such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov twosample test and the chi-square multisample test (see Hoover and Perry 1990). The
Kruskal-Wallis test is another nonparametric test because no assumption is made
about the distribution of the data (see Law and Kelton 2000).

6.8 Distribution Fitting

Once numerical data have been tested for independence and correlation, they can be
converted to a form suitable for use in the simulation model. Sample numerical data
that have been gathered on activity times, arrival intervals, batch quantities, and so
forth can be represented in a simulation model in one of three ways. First, the data
can be used exactly the way they were recorded. Second, an empirical distribution
can be used that characterizes the data. The third and preferred method is to select a
theoretical distribution that best ts the data.
Using the data exactly as they were recorded is relatively straightforward but
problematic. During the simulation, data values are read directly from the sample
data le in the order in which they were collected. The problem with this technique is that the data set is usually not large enough to represent the population. It
also presents a problem for running multiple replications of a simulation experiment because a separate data set, which usually isnt available, is needed for each
replication. Sample data sets tend to be used directly in a simulation when they are
sampled data from another related simulation model from which it receives its
input. This is a model partitioning technique sometimes used in simulating large
systems. The exit times for entities in one simulation become the arrival stream
used for the model into which it feeds.

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Using an empirical distribution in ProModel requires that the data be converted to either a continuous or discrete frequency distribution. A continuous
frequency distribution summarizes the percentage of values that fall within
given intervals. In the case of a discrete frequency distribution, it is the percentage of times a particular value occurs. For continuous frequency distributions
the intervals need not be of equal width. During the simulation, random variates
are generated using a continuous, piecewise-linear empirical distribution function based on the grouped data (see Law and Kelton, 2000). The drawbacks to
using an empirical distribution as input to a simulation are twofold. First, an insufcient sample size may create an articial bias or choppiness in the distribution that does not represent the true underlying distribution. Second, empirical
distributions based on a limited sample size often fail to capture rare extreme
values that may exist in the population from which they were sampled. As a general rule, empirical distributions should be used only for rough-cut modeling or
when the shape is very irregular and doesnt permit a good distribution t.
Representing the data using a theoretical distribution involves tting a theoretical distribution to the data. During the simulation, random variates are generated from the probability distribution to provide the simulated random values.
Fitting a theoretical distribution to sample data smooths articial irregularities in
the data and ensures that extreme values are included. For these reasons, it is best
to use theoretical distributions if a reasonably good t exists. Most popular simulation software provide utilities for tting distributions to numerical data, thus
relieving the modeler from performing this complicated procedure. A modeler
should be careful when using a theoretical distribution to ensure that if an
unbounded distribution is used, the extreme values that can be generated are
realistic. Techniques for controlling the range of unbounded distributions in a
simulation model are presented in Chapter 7.

6.8.1 Frequency Distributions

Regardless of whether an empirical or theoretical distribution is used, it is a good
idea to construct a frequency distribution to get a summary view of the data. Then a
tness test can be conducted to evaluate whether a standard theoretical distribution,
such as a normal distribution, ts the data. A frequency distribution groups or bins
the data into intervals or cells according to frequency of occurrence. Showing the
frequency with which values occur within each cell gives a clear idea of how observations are distributed throughout the range of the data. Frequency distributions
may be either discrete or continuous.
Discrete Frequency Distributions
A discrete frequency distribution is limited to specic values. That is, only frequencies of a nite set of specic values are shown. To illustrate a discrete frequency distribution, suppose a sample is collected on the number of customer
entries to a fast-food restaurant per ve-minute interval. Table 6.4 summarizes
these observations, which were made during lunchtime (between 11 A.M. and
1 P.M.) for ve workdays over a 20-week period.

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TABLE 6.4 Data for Customer Arrival at a Restaurant

Arrivals
per 5-Minute Interval

Frequency

Arrivals
per 5-Minute Interval

Frequency

0
1
2
3
4
5

15
11
19
16
8
8

6
7
8
9
10
11

7
4
5
3
3
1

Frequency distributions can be graphically shown using a histogram. A histogram depicting the discrete frequency distribution in Table 6.4 is shown in
Figure 6.11.
Continuous Frequency Distributions
A continuous frequency distribution denes ranges of values within which sample
values fall. Going back to our inspection time sample consisting of 100 observations, we can construct a continuous distribution for these data because values can
take on any value within the interval specied. A frequency distribution for the
data has been constructed using Stat::Fit (Figure 6.12).
Note that a relative frequency or density is shown (third column) as well as
cumulative (ascending and descending) frequencies. All of the relative densities
add up to 1, which is veried by the last value in the ascending cumulative frequency column.
A histogram based on this frequency distribution was also created in Stat::Fit
and is shown in Figure 6.13.
Note that the frequency distribution and histogram for our sample inspection
times are based on dividing the data into six even intervals or cells. While there
are guidelines for determining the best interval or cell size, the most important
thing is to make sure that enough cells are dened to show a gradual transition in
values, yet not so many cells that groupings become obscured. The number of intervals should be based on the total number of observations and the variance in the
data. One rule of thumb is to set the number of intervals to the cube root of twice
1
the number of samplesthat is, (2N ) 3 . This is the default method used in
Stat::Fit. The goal is to use the minimum number of intervals possible without losing information about the spread of the data.

6.8.2 Theoretical Distributions

As mentioned earlier, it may be appropriate to use the frequency distribution in
the simulation model as it is, as an empirical distribution. Whenever possible,
however, the underlying distribution from which the sample data came should be
determined. This way the actual distribution of the population can be used to

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FIGURE 6.11
Histogram showing arrival count per ve-minute interval.
20

Frequency

15

10

0
0

Arrival count

FIGURE 6.12
Frequency distribution for 100 observed inspection times.

10

11

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FIGURE 6.13
Histogram distribution
for 100 observed
inspection times.

generate random variates in the simulation rather than relying only on a sampling
of observations from the population. Dening the theoretical distribution that best
ts sample data is called distribution tting. Before discussing how theoretical
distributions are t to data, it is helpful to have a basic understanding of at least
the most common theoretical distributions.
There are about 12 statistical distributions that are commonly used in simulation (Banks and Gibson 1997). Theoretical distributions can be dened by a
simple set of parameters usually dening dispersion and density. A normal distribution, for example, is dened by a mean value and a standard deviation value.
Theoretical distributions are either discrete or continuous, depending on whether
a nite set of values within the range or an innite continuum of possible values
within a range can occur. Discrete distributions are seldom used in manufacturing
and service system simulations because they can usually be dened by simple
probability expressions. Below is a description of a few theoretical distributions
sometimes used in simulation. These particular ones are presented here purely because of their familiarity and ease of understanding. Beginners to simulation usually feel most comfortable using these distributions, although the precautions
given for their use should be noted. An extensive list of theoretical distributions
and their applications is given in Appendix A.
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a discrete distribution that expresses the probability
( p) that a particular condition or outcome can occur in n trials. We call an occurrence of the outcome of interest a success and its nonoccurrence a failure.
For a binomial distribution to apply, each trial must be a Bernoulli trial: it must

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be independent and have only two possible outcomes (success or failure), and
the probability of a success must remain constant from trial to trial. The mean
of a binomial distribution is given by np, where n is the number of trials and p
is the probability of success on any given trial. The variance is given by
np(1 p).
A common application of the binomial distribution in simulation is to test for
the number of defective items in a lot or the number of customers of a particular
type in a group of customers. Suppose, for example, it is known that the probability of a part being defective coming out of an operation is .1 and we inspect the
parts in batch sizes of 10. The number of defectives for any given sample can be
determined by generating a binomial random variate. The probability mass function for the binomial distribution in this example is shown in Figure 6.14.
Uniform Distribution
A uniform or rectangular distribution is used to describe a process in which the
outcome is equally likely to fall between the values of a and b. In a uniform
distribution, the mean is (a + b)/2. The variance is expressed by (b a)2 /12.
The probability density function for the uniform distribution is shown in
Figure 6.15.

FIGURE 6.14

0.6
0.5
0.4

p (x)

The probability
mass function of a
binomial
distribution
(n = 10, p = .1).

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0

FIGURE 6.15
The probability density
function of a uniform
distribution.

f (x )

b
x

10

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FIGURE 6.16
The probability density
function of a
triangular distribution.

f (x )

b
x

The uniform distribution is often used in the early stages of simulation projects because it is a convenient and well-understood source of random variation.
In the real world, it is extremely rare to nd an activity time that is uniformly
distributed because nearly all activity times have a central tendency or mode.
Sometimes a uniform distribution is used to represent a worst-case test for variation when doing sensitivity analysis.
Triangular Distribution
A triangular distribution is a good approximation to use in the absence of data, especially if a minimum, maximum, and most likely value (mode) can be estimated.
These are the three parameters of the triangular distribution. If a, m, and b represent the minimum, mode, and maximum values respectively of a triangular distribution, then the mean of a triangular distribution is (a + m + b)/3. The variance
is dened by (a 2 + m 2 + b2 am ab mb)/18. The probability density function for the triangular distribution is shown in Figure 6.16.
The weakness of the triangular distribution is that values in real activity times
rarely taper linearly, which means that the triangular distribution will probably
create more variation than the true distribution. Also, extreme values that may be
rare are not captured by a triangular distribution. This means that the full range of
values of the true distribution of the population may not be represented by the triangular distribution.
Normal Distribution
The normal distribution (sometimes called the Gaussian distribution) describes
phenomena that vary symmetrically above and below the mean (hence the
bell-shaped curve). While the normal distribution is often selected for dening activity times, in practice manual activity times are rarely ever normally distributed.
They are nearly always skewed to the right (the ending tail of the distribution is
longer than the beginning tail). This is because humans can sometimes take signicantly longer than the mean time, but usually not much less than the mean

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FIGURE 6.17
The probability density
function for a normal
distribution.

f (x )

time. Examples of normal distributions might be

Physical measurementsheight, length, diameter, weight.
Activities involving multiple tasks (like loading a truck or lling a
customer order).
The mean of the normal distribution is designated by the Greek letter mu (). The
variance is 2 where (sigma) is the standard deviation. The probability density
function for the normal distribution is shown in Figure 6.17.
Exponential Distribution
Sometimes referred to as the negative exponential, this distribution is used frequently in simulations to represent event intervals. The exponential distribution is
dened by a single parameter, the mean (). This distribution is related to the
Poisson distribution in that if an occurrence happens at a rate that is Poisson distributed, the time between occurrences is exponentially distributed. In other
words, the mean of the exponential distribution is the inverse of the Poisson rate.
For example, if the rate at which customers arrive at a bank is Poisson distributed
with a rate of 12 per hour, the time between arrivals is exponentially distributed
with a mean of 5 minutes. The exponential distribution has a memoryless or
forgetfulness property that makes it well suited for modeling certain phenomena
that occur independently of one another. For example, if arrival times are exponentially distributed with a mean of 5 minutes, then the expected time before the
next arrival is 5 minutes regardless of how much time has elapsed since the previous arrival. It is as though there is no memory of how much time has already
elapsed when predicting the next eventhence the term memoryless. Examples

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FIGURE 6.18
The probability density
function for an
exponential
distribution.

f (x )

of this distribution are

Time between customer arrivals at a bank.

Duration of telephone conversations.
Time between arrivals of planes at a major airport.
Time between failures of certain types of electronic devices.
Time between interrupts of the CPU in a computer system.

For an exponential distribution, the variance is the same as the mean. The probability density function of the exponential distribution is shown in Figure 6.18.

6.8.3 Fitting Theoretical Distributions to Data

Fitting a theoretical distribution to data is essentially an attempt to identify the
underlying distribution from which the data were generated. Finding the best
distribution that ts the sample data can be quite complicated and is not an exact
science. Fortunately, software such as Stat::Fit (accessible under the ProModel
Tools menu) is available for automatically tting distributions. Lab 6 at the end
of the book provides exercises on how to use Stat::Fit. Distribution tting software follows basically the same procedures as we discuss next for manual tting. Many software tools provide the added benet of being able to iterate
through all applicable distributions searching for the best t. Figure 6.19 shows
a relative ranking in Stat::Fit of how well different distributions t the observed
inspection times in Table 6.2.
Distribution tting is largely a trial-and-error process. The basic procedure
consists of three steps: (1) one or more distributions are selected as candidates for
being good ts to the sample data; (2) estimates of the parameters for each distribution must be calculated; and (3) goodness-of-t tests are performed to ascertain
how well each distribution ts the data.

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FIGURE 6.19
Ranking distributions by goodness of t for inspection time data set.

Choosing a distribution that appears to be a good t to the sample data requires

a basic knowledge of the types of distributions available and their properties. It is
also helpful to have some intuition about the variable whose data are being t.
Sometimes creating a histogram of the data can reveal important characteristics
about the distribution of the data. If, for example, a histogram of sampled assembly
times appears symmetric on either side of the mean, a normal distribution may be
inferred. Looking at the histogram in Figure 6.13, and knowing the basic shapes of
different theoretical distributions, we might hypothesize that the data come from a
beta, lognormal, or perhaps even a triangular distribution.
After a particular type of distribution has been selected, we must estimate the
dening parameter values of the distribution based on the sample data. In the case
of a normal distribution, the parameters to be estimated are the mean and standard
deviation, which can be estimated by simply calculating the average and standard
deviation of the sample data. Parameter estimates are generally calculated using
moment equations or the maximum likelihood equation (see Law and Kelton
2000).
Once a candidate distribution with its associated parameters has been
dened, a goodness-of-t test can be performed to evaluate how closely the
distribution ts the data. A goodness-of-t test measures the deviation of the

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sample distribution from the inferred theoretical distribution. Three commonly

used goodness-of-t tests are the chi-square ( 2 ), the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and
the Anderson-Darling tests (see Breiman 1973; Banks et al. 2001; Law and Kelton
2000; Stuart and Ord 1991).
Each of these goodness-of-t tests starts with the null hypothesis that the t
is good and calculates a test statistic for comparison to a standard. To test this null
hypothesis, a level of signicance value is selected, which is the likelihood of
making a type I errorthat is, rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. Stated
in a different manner, it is the probability that you will make a mistake and reject
a distribution that is actually a good t. Therefore, the smaller this value, the less
likely you are to reject when you should accept.
The oldest and one of the most common statistical tests for goodness of t is
the chi-square test. The chi-square, goodness-of-t test is a versatile test that can
be used to perform hypothesis tests for either discrete or continuous distributions.
It is also a useful test to determine data independence (see Chapter 3). The chisquare test basically compares the frequency distribution of the sample data to the
way the same number of data points would be distributed if the data came from
the inferred distribution. The chi-square, goodness-of-t test can be broken down
into nine steps:
1. Analyze the data and infer an underlying distribution.
2. Create a frequency distribution of the data with equiprobable cells based
on the inferred distribution.
3. Calculate the expected frequency (ei ) for each cell.
4. Adjust cells if necessary so that all expected frequencies are at least 5.
5. Calculate the chi-square test statistic.
6. Determine the number of degrees of freedom (k 1).
7. Choose a desired level of signicance ().
8. Find the critical chi-square value from the chi-square table (Appendix D).
9. Reject the distribution if the chi-square statistic exceeds the critical value.
To illustrate how the chi-square, goodness-of-t test is performed, lets look at an
example problem in which 40 observations were made of activity times for a bagging operation. These observations are shown in Table 6.5. What we would like to
know is what distribution best ts the data.
Step 1: Analyze the data and infer an underlying distribution. A
distribution should be chosen as a candidate for the true, underlying
distribution that has similar characteristics to those exhibited by the data. A
descriptive analysis, like the one described for the data in Table 6.2, can help
reveal some of the dening characteristics of the data. This includes
calculating parameters such as the mean, range, standard deviation, and so on.
If, for example, the mean and median are roughly the same, and the standard
deviation is roughly one-sixth of the range, we might infer that the data are
normally distributed. Constructing a histogram of the data like that shown in
Figure 6.13 can also be a good way to match a distribution to the data.

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TABLE 6.5 40 Observed Activity Times for a Bagging Operation

11.3
7.2
12.5
14.3
12.8
10.2
7.7
11.0
13.2
14.4

8.2
8.6
7.4
11.1
12.3
16.8
15.2
8.3
14.5
10.7

13.8
15.2
13.5
9.2
16.3
14.9
12.9
14.3
7.5
15.1

10.3
9.6
11.1
11.8
9.5
16.3
12.4
16.9
13.2
10.7

TABLE 6.6 Frequency Distribution for Bagging Times

Cell
(i)
1
2
3
4
5

Interval

Observed
Frequency (oi )

H0 Probability
( pi )

H0 Expected
Frequency (ei )

(oi ei )2
ei

79
911
1113
1315
1517

7
7
10
8
8

.20
.20
.20
.20
.20

8
8
8
8
8

0.125
0.125
0.50
0
0

For our example, the data appear to be evenly distributed throughout

the range, so we will hypothesize that the observations are uniformly
distributed between 7 and 17. This is our null hypothesis (H0 ). The alternate
hypothesis (H1 ) is that the observations are not uniformly distributed
between 7 and 17.
Step 2: Create a frequency distribution of the data with equiprobable
cells based on the inferred distribution. To create a frequency
distribution, recall that a good rule of thumb for determining the appropriate
1
number of cells (k) is k = (2n) 3 . Normally a frequency distribution is
divided into cells of equal intervals. When conducting a chi-square test,
however, it often works better if cell intervals have equal probabilities
rather than equal interval ranges. If, for example, you want to create a
frequency distribution with six cells for a particular data set, and you
suspect that the data come from a normal distribution, you would create
equiprobable intervals that each take in one-sixth of the population of the
corresponding normal distribution.
1
1
For this example, k = (2n) 3 = (2 40) 3 = 4.3 5. Because we are
assuming a uniform distribution in which equal interval widths also have
equal probabilities, we can divide the range into ve equal intervals each
with a cell width of 10/5 = 2 and a probability of 1/5 = .20. For each
cell (i ), the resultant observed frequency (oi ) is shown in Table 6.6 together

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with the hypothesized probability ( pi ). That each cell has a probability of

.2 based on a cell width of 2 can be veried by calculating the probability
of the rst interval as


p(7 x < 9) =

f (x ) d x =
7

1
dx =
10

x
10

9
=
7

9
7
2

=
= .20.
10
10
10

For a uniform distribution the probabilities for all intervals are equal, so the
remaining intervals also have a hypothesized probability of .20.
Step 3: Calculate the expected frequency for each cell (ei). The expected
frequency (e) for each cell (i ) is the expected number of observations that
would fall into each interval if the null hypothesis were true. It is calculated
by multiplying the total number of observations (n) by the probability ( p)
that an observation would fall within each cell. So for each cell, the
expected frequency (ei ) equals npi .
In our example, since the hypothesized probability ( p) of each cell is
the same, the expected frequency for every cell is ei = npi = 40 .2 = 8.
Step 4: Adjust cells if necessary so that all expected frequencies are at
least 5. If the expected frequency of any cell is less than 5, the cells must
be adjusted. This rule of ve is a conservative rule that provides
satisfactory validity of the chi-square test. When adjusting cells, the easiest
approach is to simply consolidate adjacent cells. After any consolidation,
the total number of cells should be at least 3; otherwise you no longer have
a meaningful differentiation of the data and, therefore, will need to gather
additional data. If you merge any cells as the result of this step, you will
need to adjust the observed frequency, hypothesized probability, and
expected frequency of those cells accordingly.
In our example, the expected frequency of each cell is 8, which meets
the minimum requirement of 5, so no adjustment is necessary.
Step 5: Calculate the chi-square
equation for calculating the
kstatistic. The
2
= i=1
(oi ei )2 /ei . If the t is good the
chi-square statistic is calc
chi-square statistic will be small.
For our example,
2
calc
=

5


(oi ei )2
= .125 + .125 + .50 + 0 + 0 = 0.75.
ei
i=1

Step 6: Determine the number of degrees of freedom (k 1). A simple

way of determining a conservative number of degrees of freedom is to take
the number of cells minus 1, or k 1.
For our example, the number of degrees of freedom is
k 1 = 5 1 = 4.
Note: The number of degrees of freedom is often computed to be
k s 1, where k is the number of cells and s is the number of parameters
estimated from the data for dening the distribution. So for a normal
distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation) that are

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estimated from the data, s = 2. In Stat::Fit the number of degrees of

freedom is assumed to be k 1.
Step 7: Choose a desired level of signicance (). The signicance level
is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is truethat is,
when the hypothesized distribution is correct. A typical level of signicance
is .05; however, it could also be .10 or any other desired value.
For our example we will use a level of signicance () of .05.
Step 8: Find the critical chi-square value from the chi-square table.
A chi-square table can be found in Appendix D. The critical values in the
chi-square table are based on the number of degrees of freedom (k 1)
and the desired level of signicance ().
For our example,
2
2
k1,
= 4,0.05
= 9.488

Step 9: Reject the distribution if the chi-square statistic exceeds the

critical value. If the calculated test statistic is larger than the critical value
from the chi-square table, then the observed and expected values are not
close and the model is a poor t to the data. Therefore, we reject H0 if
2
2
calc
> k1,
.
For our example, 0.75 is not greater than 9.488; therefore, we fail to
reject H0 , which means we can assume that a uniform distribution is a good
t. If we are satised with our nd we can terminate our testing; otherwise,
we can return to step 2 and try another distribution.
Note: While the test statistic for the chi-square test can be useful, the
p-value is actually more useful in determining goodness of t. The p-value
is dened as the probability that another sample will compare the same as
the current sample given that the t is appropriate. A small p-value indicates
that another sample would not likely compare the same, and therefore, the
t should be rejected. Conversely, a high p-value indicates that another
sample would likely compare the same, and, therefore, the t should not
be rejected. Thus the higher the p-value, the more likely that the t is
appropriate. When comparing two different distributions for goodness of
t, the distribution with the higher p-value is likely to be the better t
regardless of the level of signicance. Most distribution-tting software
uses the p-value for ranking goodness of t.
If very few data are available, then a goodness-of-t test is unlikely to reject
any candidate distribution. However, if a lot of data are available, then a
goodness-of-t test may reject all candidate distributions. Therefore, failing to
reject a candidate distribution should be taken as one piece of evidence in favor
of the choice, while rejecting a particular distribution is only one piece of evidence against the choice. Before making a decision, it is a good idea to look at
a graphical display that compares the theoretical distribution to a histogram of
the data. Figure 6.20, for example, overlays a beta distribution (the distribution
with the highest t ranking for this particular data set) on top of a histogram of
the data.

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FIGURE 6.20
Visual comparison
between beta
distribution and a
histogram of the 100
sample inspection time
values.

6.9 Selecting a Distribution in the Absence of Data

There are a couple of ways to obtain reasonable estimates of system behavior
when no historical records exist or when direct measurement isnt possible. The
best source is the people who have expertise in some aspect of the system being
modeled. Operators, maintenance personnel, vendors, and others who are experienced in similar processes can often give good approximations of what to expect
in new but similar situations. In addition to getting expert opinions, sometimes the
nature of the process itself can indicate what to expect. For example, in attempting to select an appropriate distribution to represent a manual task for which a
most likely time has been estimated, experience has shown that such tasks tend to
have a triangular or beta distribution. As another example, customer interarrival
times tend to be exponentially distributed.
For numerical data such as activity times, estimates are usually given in one
of the following forms:
A single most likely or mean value.
Minimum and maximum values dening a range.
Minimum, most likely, and maximum values.

6.9.1 Most Likely or Mean Value

Sometimes the only estimate that can be obtained for a system variable is a mean
or most likely value. This is a single best guess estimate of what the value is.

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Examples of single-value estimates include

About 10 customer arrivals per hour.
Approximately 20 minutes to assemble parts in a kit.
Around ve machine failures each day.
A simple sensitivity test for these types of estimates would be to increase and
decrease the value by 20 percent to see how much of a difference it makes in the
simulation results. One of the problems with single-value estimates is that no
consideration is given to possible variation. Fluctuations in activity times can
have a signicant impact on model performance. Sensitivity analysis should be
performed looking at the potential impact of variation. For example, if the estimated time for a manual activity is 1.2 minutes, a test run might be made using a
normal distribution with a mean of 1.2 minutes and a somewhat large standard deviation value of, say, .3 minute (the coefcient of variation = .25). Comparing
this run with a run using a constant value of 1.2 minutes will help determine how
sensitive the model is to variation in the activity time.

6.9.2 Minimum and Maximum Values

Sometimes only the range of values can be given as an estimate for a particular
variable. Examples of minimum and maximum values include
1.5 to 3 minutes to inspect items.
5 to 10 customer arrivals per hour.
Four to six minutes to set up a machine.
Often a uniform distribution is used to represent a range of values because no central tendency is specied. The problem with using a uniform distribution is that it
tends to give unrealistic weight to extreme values and therefore exaggerates the
random behavior beyond what it really is. A normal distribution may be more appropriate in this situation because it recognizes that a higher density of occurrences exists near the mean. If a normal distribution is used, the standard deviation could be reasonably set at 16 of the range. This ensures that 99.73 percent of
all values will fall within the specied range. So for a time range of .25 to 1.75
minutes, a normal distribution could be used with a mean of 1 minute and a standard deviation of .25 minute (see Figure 6.21).

6.9.3 Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum Values

The best estimate to obtain for a random variable when historical data cant be obtained is the minimum, most likely, and maximum values. Because most activity
times are not symmetrical about a mean, this type of estimate is probably going to
be the most realistic. Minimum, most likely, and maximum values closely resemble a triangular or a beta distribution. Examples of minimum, most likely, and

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FIGURE 6.21
Normal distribution with mean = 1 and standard deviation = .25.

.25

.5

.75

1.25

1.50

1.75

FIGURE 6.22
A triangular
distribution with
minimum = 2,
mode = 5, and
maximum = 15.

15

maximum values might be

2 to 15 with most likely 5 minutes to repair a machine.
3 to 5 with most likely 2.5 minutes between customer arrivals.
1 to 3 with most likely 1.5 minutes to complete a purchase order.
Minimum, most likely, and maximum values can be easily set up as a triangular distribution. Looking at the rst repair time example, if we t these times to a triangular distribution, it would produce a minimum of 2 minutes, a mode of 5 minutes and
a maximum of 15 minutes (see Figure 6.22).
Because these values are still based only on estimates, it is a good idea
to perform a sensitivity analysis, especially on the mode value (assuming the
minimum and maximum values represent best- and worst-case possibilities,
respectively).

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6.10 Bounded versus Boundless Distributions

Continuous theoretical distributions may be bounded (doubly or singly) or unbounded. An unbounded distribution can have values that go to either negative or
positive innity. The normal distribution, for example, ranges from to +
and is therefore unbounded. A bounded distribution may be bounded at both ends
or only on one end. The exponential distribution, for example, is a nonnegative
distribution (it cant take on negative values) and is therefore bounded only on the
lower end of the distribution. The uniform and triangular distributions are doubly
bounded, having both lower and upper boundaries. Empirical continuous distributions are always doubly bounded by the mere fact that they are dened by a nite number of cell intervals.
Sampling during a simulation from a boundless distribution may cause values to be generated that are unrealistic in real-world situations. An operation time
that is normally distributed with a mean of three minutes and a standard deviation
of one minute would have a possibility, for example, of being negative on the low
side as well as a remote chance of being absurdly large on the high side. It is often
desirable, therefore, to draw random samples during a simulation from a
truncated continuous distribution where either the lower or upper tail is cut short.
ProModel automatically converts negative values to 0 when an unbounded
continuous distribution is specied for a time value. It has no way of knowing,
however, what a reasonably acceptable upper bound should be. This must be specied by the modeler. Lower and upper bounds can be imposed on a distribution by
simply screening for values outside of the acceptable range. Either values generated outside the acceptable range can be rejected and another value generated or
the generated value can be brought within the acceptable value range.

6.11 Modeling Discrete Probabilities

Using Continuous Distributions
Discrete probability distributions are used much less in simulation than continuous probability distributions. Most discrete probabilitiessuch as the probability
of routing to a particular location or the probability of an item being defective
are modeled using simple probability expressions like .34. In simulation, most
occasions for generating values from a discrete probability distribution involve
generating integer values rather than real values. For example, the discrete random variable might represent the number of items in a batch. One useful way to
generate discretely distributed integer values is to use a continuous distribution
where fractions are simply truncated. In a manufacturing system, for example,
suppose that when lling containers or pallets there is sometimes a remaining
amount that lls only a partial container or pallet. If a full pallet holds 20 boxes,
the number of boxes on a partial pallet would likely be uniformly distributed between 1 and 19. To model the partial pallet quantity, you would simply dene a
continuous uniform distribution with a range between 1 and 20. A uniform

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random variable X will have values generated for X where min X < max. Thus
values will never be equal to the maximum value (in this case 20). Because generated values are automatically truncated when used in a context requiring an integer, only integer values that are evenly distributed from 1 to 19 will occur (this
is effectively a discrete uniform distribution).

6.12 Data Documentation and Approval

When it is felt that all relevant data have been gathered, analyzed, and converted
into a usable form, it is advisable to document the data using tables, relational diagrams, and assumption lists. Sources of data should also be noted. This document should then be reviewed by those in a position to evaluate the validity of the
data and approve the assumptions made. Where more formal documentation is
required, a separate document will need to be created. This document will be
helpful later if modications need to be made to the model or to analyze why the
actual system ends up working differently than the simulation.
In addition to identifying data used to build the model, the document should
also specify factors that were deliberately excluded from the model because they
were deemed insignicant or irrelevant. For example, if break times are not included in the system description because of their perceived insignicance, the
document should state this. Justication for omissions should also be included if
necessary. Stating why certain factors are being excluded from the system description will help resolve later questions that may arise regarding the model
premises.
Reviewing and approving input data can be a time-consuming and difcult
task, especially when many assumptions are made. In practice, data validation
ends up being more of a consensus-building process where agreement is reached
that the information is good enough for the purposes of the simulation. The data
document is not a static document but rather a dynamic one that often changes as
model building and experimentation get under way. Much if not all of the data
documentation can be scripted right into the model. Most software provides the
capability to write comments in the model. Where more formal documentation is
required, a separate data document will need to be created.

6.12.1 Data Documentation Example

To illustrate how system data might be documented, imagine you have just collected information for an assembly operation for three different monitor sizes. Here
is an example of how the data collected for this system might be diagrammed and
tabulated. The diagram and data should be sufciently clear and complete for those
familiar with the system to validate the data and for a model to be constructed. Review the data and see if they are sufciently clear to formulate a mental image of the
system being modeled.

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Objective
The objective of the study is to determine station utilization and throughput of the
system.
Entity Flow Diagram
Rejected monitors
19
& 21

monitor
Station 1

Station 2

19
, 21
, & 25

monitors

Inspection
21
monitor

Reworked
monitors

Station 3

Entities
19" monitor
21" monitor
25" monitor
Workstation Information
Workstation

Buffer Capacity

Defective Rate

5
8
5
5

5%
8%
0%
0%

Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Inspection

Processing Sequence

Entity
19" monitor

21" monitor

25" monitor

Station

Operating Time in Minutes

(min, mode, max)

Station 1
Station 2
Inspection
Station 1
Station 2
Inspection
Station 1
Station 2
Inspection
Station 3

0.8, 1, 1.5
0.9, 1.2, 1.8
1.8, 2.2, 3
0.8, 1, 1.5
1.1, 1.3, 1.9
1.8, 2.2, 3
0.9, 1.1, 1.6
1.2, 1.4, 2
1.8, 2.3, 3.2
0.5, 0.7, 1

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Handling Defective Monitors

Defective monitors are detected at inspection and routed to whichever
station created the problem.
Monitors waiting at a station for rework have a higher priority than
rst-time monitors.
Corrected monitors are routed back to inspection.
A reworked monitor has only a 2 percent chance of failing again, in which
case it is removed from the system.
Arrivals
A cartload of four monitor assemblies arrives every four hours normally distributed with a standard deviation of 0.2 hour. The probability of an arriving monitor
being of a particular size is

Monitor Size

Probability

19"
21"
25"

.6
.3
.1

Move Times
All movement is on an accumulation conveyor with the following times:

From
Station 1
Station 2
Inspection
Inspection
Inspection
Station 1

To

Time (seconds)

Station 2
Inspection
Station 3
Station 1
Station 2
Inspection

12
15
12
20
14
18

Move Triggers
Entities move from one location to the next based on available capacity of the
input buffer at the next location.
Work Schedule
Stations are scheduled to operate eight hours a day.
Assumption List
No downtimes (downtimes occur too infrequently).
Dedicated operators at each workstation are always available during the
scheduled work time.
Rework times are half of the normal operation times.

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Simulation Time and Replications

The simulation is run for 40 hours (10 hours of warm-up). There are ve
replications.

6.13 Summary
Data for building a model should be collected systematically with a view of how
the data are going to be used in the model. Data are of three types: structural, operational, and numerical. Structural data consist of the physical objects that make
up the system. Operational data dene how the elements behave. Numerical data
quantify attributes and behavioral parameters.
When gathering data, primary sources should be used rst, such as historical
records or specications. Developing a questionnaire is a good way to request information when conducting personal interviews. Data gathering should start with
structural data, then operational data, and nally numerical data. The rst piece of
the puzzle to be put together is the routing sequence because everything else
hinges on the entity ow.
Numerical data for random variables should be analyzed to test for independence and homogeneity. Also, a theoretical distribution should be t to the data if
there is an acceptable t. Some data are best represented using an empirical distribution. Theoretical distributions should be used wherever possible.
Data should be documented, reviewed, and approved by concerned individuals. This data document becomes the basis for building the simulation model and
provides a baseline for later modication or for future studies.

6.14 Review Questions

1. Give two examples of structural data, operational data, and numerical
data to be gathered when building a model.
2. Why is it best to begin gathering data by dening entity routings?
3. Of the distributions shown in the chapter, which theoretical distribution
most likely would be representative of time to failure for a machine?
4. Why would a normal distribution likely be a poor representation of an
activity time?
5. Assume a new system is being simulated and the only estimate
available for a manual operation is a most likely value. How would you
handle this situation?
6. Under what circumstances would you use an empirical distribution
instead of a standard theoretical distribution for an activity time?
7. Why is the distribution for interarrival times often nonstationary?
8. Assuming you had historical data on truck arrivals for the past year,
how would you arrive at an appropriate arrival distribution to model the
system for the next six months?

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9. A new machine is being considered for which the company has no

reliability history. How would you obtain the best possible estimate of
reliability for the machine?
10. Suppose you are interested in looking at the impact of having workers
inspect their own work instead of having a dedicated inspection station.
If this is a new system requiring lots of assumptions to be made, how
can simulation be useful in making the comparison?
11. State whether the following are examples of a discrete probability
distribution or a continuous probability distribution.
a. Activity times.
b. Batch sizes.
c. Time between arrivals.
d. Probability of routing to one of six possible destinations.
12. Conceptually, how would you model a random variable X that
represents an activity time that is normally distributed with a mean of
10 minutes and a standard deviation of 3 minutes but is never less than
8 minutes?
13. Using Stat::Fit, generate a list of 50 random values between 10 and 100.
Choose the Scatter Plot option and plot the data. Now put the data in
ascending order using the Input/Operate commands and plot the data.
Explain the correlation, if any, that you see in each scatter plot.
14. How can you check to see if a distribution in ProModel is giving the
right values?
15. Since many theoretical distributions are unbounded on the bottom,
what happens in ProModel if a negative value is sampled for an activity
time?
16. Go to a small convenience store or the university bookstore and collect
data on the interarrival and service times of customers. Make
histograms of the number of arrivals per time period and the number of
service completions per period. Note if these distributions vary by the
time of the day and by the day of the week. Record the number of
service channels available at all times. Make sure you secure
permission to perform the study.
17. The following are throughput time values for 30 simulation runs.
Calculate an estimate of the mean, variance, standard deviation, and
coefcient of variation for the throughput time. Construct a histogram
that has six cells of equal width.
10.7, 5.4, 7.8, 12.2, 6.4, 9.5, 6.2, 11.9, 13.1, 5.9, 9.6, 8.1, 6.3, 10.3, 11.5,
12.7, 15.4, 7.1, 10.2, 7.4, 6.5, 11.2, 12.9, 10.1, 9.9, 8.6, 7.9, 10.3, 8.3, 11.1
18. Customers calling into a service center are categorized according to the
nature of their problems. Five types of problem categories (A
through E) have been identied. One hundred observations were made

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of customers calling in during a day, with a summary of the data shown

here. By inspection, you conclude that the data are most likely
uniformly distributed. Perform a chi-square goodness-of-t test of this
hypothesis.
Type

Observations

10

14

12

19. While doing your homework one afternoon, you notice that you are
frequently interrupted by friends. You decide to record the times
between interruptions to see if they might be exponentially distributed.
Here are 30 observed times (in minutes) that you have recorded;
conduct a goodness-of-t test to see if the data are exponentially
distributed. (Hint: Use the data average as an estimate of the mean. For
the range, assume a range between 0 and innity. Divide the cells based
on equal probabilities ( pi ) for each cell rather than equal cell intervals.)

2.08
2.96
16.17
14.57
2.79
2.15

6.86
0.91
2.11
0.29
11.69
0.96

4.86
2.13
2.38
2.73
18.29
6.28

2.55
2.20
0.83
0.73
5.25
0.94

5.94
1.40
2.81
1.76
7.42
13.76

6.15 Case Study

COLLECTING AND DOCUMENTING DATA FOR
HARRYS DRIVE-THROUGH RESTAURANT
This exercise is intended to help you practice sorting through and organizing data on a service facility. The facility is a fast-food restaurant called Harrys Drive-Through and is
shown on the next page.
Harrys Drive-Through caters to two types of customers, walk-in and drive-through.
During peak times, walk-in customers arrive exponentially every 4 minutes and place
their order, which is sent to the kitchen. Nonpeak arrivals occur every 810 minutes. Customers wait in a pickup queue while their orders are lled in the kitchen. Two workers are
assigned to take and deliver orders. Once customers pick up their orders, 60 percent of
the customers stay and eat at a table, while the other 40 percent leave with their orders.
There is seating for 30 people, and the number of people in each customer party is one

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Drive-through order

Kitchen

Drive-through
pickup
Pickup

Order

Table area

40 percent of the time, two 30 percent of the time, three 18 percent of the time, four 10
percent of the time, and ve 2 percent of the time. Eating time is normally distributed
with a mean of 15 minutes and a standard deviation of 2 minutes. If a walk-in customer
enters and sees that more than 15 customers are waiting to place their orders, the customer will balk (that is, leave).
Harrys is especially popular as a drive-through restaurant. Cars enter at a rate of 10 per
hour during peak times, place their orders, and then pull forward to pick up their orders. No
more than ve cars can be in the pickup queue at a time. One person is dedicated to taking
orders. If over seven cars are at the order station, arriving cars will drive on.
The time to take orders is uniformly distributed between 0.5 minute and 1.2 minutes including payment. Orders take an average of 8.2 minutes to ll with a standard deviation of
1.2 minutes (normal distribution). These times are the same for both walk-in and drivethrough customers.
The objective of the simulation is to analyze performance during peak periods to see
how long customers spend waiting in line, how long lines become, how often customers
balk (pass by), and what the utilization of the table area is.

Problem
Summarize these data in table form and list any assumptions that need to be made in
order to conduct a meaningful simulation study based on the data given and objectives
specied.

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References
Banks, Jerry; John S. Carson II; Barry L. Nelson; and David M. Nicol. Discrete-Event
System Simulation. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2001.
Banks, Jerry, and Randall R. Gibson. Selecting Simulation Software. IIE Solutions, May
1997, pp. 2932.
. Stat::Fit. South Kent, CT: Geer Mountain Software Corporation, 1996.
Breiman, Leo. Statistics: With a View toward Applications. New York: Houghton Mifin,
1973.
Brunk, H. D. An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics. 2nd ed. N.Y.: Blaisdell Publishing Co. 1965.
Carson, John S. Convincing Users of Models Validity Is Challenging Aspect of Modelers Job. Industrial Engineering, June 1986, p. 77.
Hoover, S. V., and R. F. Perry. Simulation: A Problem Solving Approach. Reading, MA,
Addison-Wesley, 1990.
Johnson, Norman L.; Samuel Kotz; and Adrienne W. Kemp. Univariate Discrete Distributions. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1992, p. 425.
Knuth, Donald E. Seminumerical Algorithms. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1981.
Law, Averill M., and W. David Kelton. Simulation Modeling & Analysis. New York:
McGraw-Hill, 2000.
Stuart, Alan, and J. Keith Ord. Kendalls Advanced Theory of Statistics. vol. 2. Cambridge:
Oxford University Press, 1991.

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7. Model Building

MODEL BUILDING

Every theory [model] should be stated [built] as simply as possible, but not
simpler.
Albert Einstein

7.1 Introduction
In this chapter we look at how to translate a conceptual model of a system into a
simulation model. The focus is on elements common to both manufacturing and
service systems such as entity ow and resource allocation. Modeling issues
more specic to either manufacturing or service systems will be covered in later
chapters.
Modeling is more than knowing how to use a simulation software tool.
Learning to use modern, easy-to-use software is one of the least difcult aspects
of modeling. Indeed, current simulation software makes poor and inaccurate models easier to create than ever before. Unfortunately, software cannot make decisions about how the elements of a particular system operate and how they should
interact with each other. This is the role of the modeler.
Modeling is considered an art or craft as much as a science. Knowing the
theory behind simulation and understanding the statistical issues are the science
part. But knowing how to effectively and efciently represent a system using a
simulation tool is the artistic part of simulation. It takes a special knack to be able
to look at a system in the abstract and then creatively construct a representative
logical model using a simulation tool. If three different people were to model the
same system, chances are three different modeling approaches would be taken.
Modelers tend to use the techniques with which they are most familiar. So the best
way to develop good modeling skills is to look at lots of good examples and, most
of all, practice, practice, practice! Skilled simulation analysts are able to quickly
translate a process into a simulation model and begin conducting experiments.
171

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Consider the following statement by Robert Shannon (1998):

If you want to become procient in an art you must take up the tools (palette, canvas,
paint, and brushes) and begin to paint. As you do so, you will begin to see what works
and what doesnt. The same thing is true in simulation. You learn the art of simulation
by simulating. Having a mentor to help show you the way can shorten the time and
effort.

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a little mentoring by showing how

typical modeling issues are handled during simulation. Some of the questions answered in this chapter include
How do I convert a conceptual model to a simulation model?
What is the relationship between model simplicity and model
usefulness?
How do I determine which system elements to include in a model?
How do I determine the best way to represent system elements in a
model?
How are common situations modeled using simulation?
Because a simulation model relies on a simulation language for its expression, (and since this textbook is titled Simulation Using ProModel), ProModel
will be used to illustrate how system elements are modeled.
For the most part, the discussion of modeling issues in this chapter is kept at
a conceptual level. Specic modeling examples in ProModel can be found in
Lab 7 of Part II.

7.2 Converting a Conceptual Model to a Simulation Model

The conceptual model is the result of the data-gathering effort and is a formulation in ones mind (supplemented with notes and diagrams) of how a particular
system operates. Building a simulation model requires that this conceptual model
be converted to a simulation model. Making this translation requires two important transitions in ones thinking. First, the modeler must be able to think of the
system in terms of the modeling paradigm supported by the particular modeling
software that is being used. Second, the different possible ways to model the system should be evaluated to determine the most efcient yet effective way to represent the system.

7.2.1 Modeling Paradigms

A simulation model is a computer representation of how elements in a particular
system behave and interact. The internal representation of a system may not be
radically different between simulation products. However, the way that model information is dened using a particular product may be quite different. How a user

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denes a model using a particular simulation product is based on the modeling

paradigm of the product. A modeling paradigm consists of the constructs and
associated language that dictate how the modeler should think about the system
being modeled. In this regard, a modeling paradigm determines the particular
world view that one should have when modeling a system. Learning a simulation product requires that one rst learn the particular modeling paradigm used by
the product.
Modeling paradigms differ among simulation productsalthough many differences are minor. Historically, simulation products required models to be dened line by line, specifying a list of instructions like a script for processing entities. Most modern products have a process orientation and support object-based
modeling. Some products view a process as an activity sequence, while others
view it from the standpoint of an entity routing.
Conceptually, object-based modeling is quite simple. An object represents a
real-world object such as a machine, an operator, a process part, or a customer. An
object is dened in terms of attributes and behaviors. Attributes are essentially
variables that are associated with an object such as its size, condition, time in the
system, and so on. Attributes are used to carry information about the object, either
for decision making or for output reporting. Attributes may be modied during the
simulation to reect changing values. Behaviors dene the operational logic associated with the object. This logic gets executed either whenever certain events
occur or when explicitly called in the model. Examples of behavioral logic include operations, machine setup, routing decisions, and material movement.
Examples of events or conditions that may trigger a behavior might be the completion of an operation, the elapse of a specied period of time, or the drop of a
tank or inventory to a specied level.
Objects are organized into classes according to similarity of attributes and behavior. In this way, all objects of the same class inherit the attributes and behaviors dened for the class. This simplies object denitions and allows changes to
be quickly made to a set of similar objects. It also allows objects that are dened
once to be reused in other models. In ProModel, predened object classes include
entities, resources, locations, and paths.
While object-based modeling is consistent with modern object-oriented programming (OOP) practices, OOP itself is quite complicated and requires a significant amount of training to become procient. The easiest simulation languages
are object-based, but they are not pure OOP languages. Otherwise, a modeler
might as well pick up an OOP language like Java and begin programming his or
her models.
ProModel is object-based but also provides an intuitive entity-ow modeling
paradigm. The natural way to think about most systems being modeled is to think
of them from the perspective of the entity as it ows through each workstation,
storage area, or some other location. In fact, it actually helps when building the
model to put yourself in the place of the entity owing through the system and describe what you do and what resources you require as you move from place to
place in the system. For modeling purposes, it is useful to think of a system in

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terms of the same structural and operational elements that were described in
Chapter 6. This is essentially how models are dened using ProModel.

7.2.2 Model Denition

A model is a simplied representation of reality, with emphasis on the word simplied. This means that the exact way in which an operation is performed is not so
important as the way in which the operation impacts the rest of the system. An activity should always be viewed in terms of its effect on other system elements rather
than in terms of the detailed way in which it is performed. Such detailed mechanics
are inconsequential to the overall ow of entities and utilization of resources.
Most models, especially those built by beginners, tend to err on the side of
being overly detailed rather than being too general. The tendency is to reproduce
the precise way that the system operates (sometimes referred to as emulation). Not
only is it difcult to create extremely detailed models, but it is also difcult to
debug and maintain them. Furthermore, all of the detail may obscure the key issues being analyzed so that it actually weakens the model. The power of a model
is more a function of its simplicity rather than its complexity. A point can be made
more effectively when it is reduced to its simplest form rather than disguised in a
morass of detail. Lou Keller of PROMODEL Corporation has suggested that the
Laffer curve, borrowed from economics, effectively illustrates the relationship between model complexity and model utility (see Figure 7.1). Notice that a certain
degree of complexity is essential to capture the key cause-and-effect relationships
in the system. However, a system has many more cause-and-effect relationships
than should be included in a model. There is an optimum amount of complexity
for any given model beyond which additional utility begins to diminish.
The remaining sections in this chapter give recommendations on how to effectively yet minimally represent system elements in a simulation model using a
simulation language like ProModel.

Relationship between
model complexity and
model utility (also
known as the Laffer
curve).

Complexity

FIGURE 7.1

Optimum level of
model complexity

Utility

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7.3 Structural Elements

For the most part, model objects represent the structural elements in a system
such as machines, people, work items, and work areas. For purposes of our
discussion, we will be using the simple object classication employed by
ProModel:

Entitiesthe items processed in the system.

Locationsplaces where entities are processed or held.
Resourcesagents used in the processing of entities.
Pathsthe course of travel for entities and resources in the system.

Not all simulation products provide the same set or classication of modeling
elements. Even these elements could be further subdivided to provide greater differentiation. Locations, for example, could be subdivided into workstations,
buffers, queues, and storage areas. From a system dynamics perspective, however,
these are all still simply places to which entities are routed and where operations
or activities may be performed. For this reason, it is easier just to think of them all
in the generic sense as locations. The object classication used by ProModel is
simple yet broad enough to encompass virtually any object encountered in most
manufacturing and service systems.
These model elements or objects have behavior associated with them
(discussed in Section 7.4, Operational Elements) and attributes. Most common
behaviors and attributes are selectable from menus, which reduces the time required to build models. The user may also predene behaviors and attributes that
are imported into a model.

7.3.1 Entities
Entities are the objects processed in the model that represent the inputs and outputs of the system. Entities in a system may have special characteristics such as
speed, size, condition, and so on. Entities follow one or more different routings in
a system and have processes performed on them. They may arrive from outside
the system or be created within the system. Usually, entities exit the system after
visiting a dened sequence of locations.
Simulation models often make extensive use of entity attributes. For example, an entity may have an attribute called Condition that may have a value of 1
for defective or 0 for nondefective. The value of this attribute may determine
where the entity gets routed in the system. Attributes are also frequently used to
gather information during the course of the simulation. For example, a modeler
may dene an attribute called ValueAddedTime to track the amount of valueadded time an entity spends in the system.
The statistics of interest that are generally collected for entities include time in
the system (ow time), quantity processed (output), value-added time, time spent
waiting to be serviced, and the average number of entities in the system.

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Entities to Include
When deciding what entities to include in a model, it is best to look at every kind
of entity that has a bearing on the problem being addressed. For example, if a
component part is assembled to a base item at an assembly station, and the station
is always stocked with the component part, it is probably unnecessary to model
the component part. In this case, what is essential to simulate is just the time delay
to perform the assembly. If, however, the component part may not always be
available due to delays, then it might be necessary to simulate the ow of component parts as well as the base items. The rule is that if you can adequately capture
the dynamics of the system without including the entity, dont include it.
Entity Aggregating
It is not uncommon for some manufacturing systems to have hundreds of part
types or for a service system to have hundreds of different customer types. Modeling each one of these entity types individually would be a painstaking task that
would yield little, if any, benet. A better approach is to treat entity types in the
aggregate whenever possible (see Figure 7.2). This works especially well when all
entities have the same processing sequence. Even if a slight difference in processing exists, it often can be handled through use of attributes or by using probabilities. If statistics by entity type are not required and differences in treatment can be
dened using attributes or probabilities, it makes sense to aggregate entity types
into a single generic entity and perhaps call it part or customer.
Entity Resolution
Each individual item or person in the system need not always be represented by a
corresponding model entity. Sometimes a group of items or people can be represented by a single entity (see Figure 7.3). For example, a single entity might be
used to represent a batch of parts processed as a single unit or a party of people
eating together in a restaurant. If a group of entities is processed as a group and
moved as a group, there is no need to model them individually. Activity times or
statistics that are a function of the size of the group can be handled using an
attribute that keeps track of the items represented by the single entity.

Type A
Type B
Type X
Type C

9 entities

1 entity

FIGURE 7.2

FIGURE 7.3

Treating different entity types as a

single type.

Treating multiple entities as a

single entity.

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High-Rate Entity Processing

In some systems, especially in the food and beverage industries, it is not uncommon to process entities at a rate of hundreds per minute. In such situations,
modeling each individual entity can signicantly slow down the simulation. For
high-rate processing in which individual entity tracking isnt critical, it may be
preferable to merely track entity production at various stages of a process using
variables or attributes instead of individual entities. Simulation languages having
a tank or accumulator construct can make this easier. Having thousands of entities
in the system at one time (especially those with multiple attributes) can consume
lots of computer memory and may slow the simulation signicantly.
An alternative approach to modeling high-rate entity processing is to adjust
the resolution of the entity, as discussed earlier. Using this approach, you might
model every carton of 48 bottles or containers in a beverage-processing facility as
a single entity. This approach also works for continuously owing substances
such as liquids or granules, which can often be converted, for simulation, into discrete units of measure such as gallons, pounds, or barrels.

7.3.2 Locations
Locations are places in the system that entities visit for processing, waiting, or decision making. A location might be a treatment room, workstation, check-in point,
queue, or storage area. Locations have a holding capacity and may have certain
times that they are available. They may also have special input and output such as
input based on highest priority or output based on rst-in, rst out (FIFO).
In simulation, we are often interested in the average contents of a location
such as the average number of customers in a queue or the average number of
parts in a storage rack. We might also be interested in how much time entities
spend at a particular location for processing. There are also location state statistics
that are of interest such as utilization, downtime, or idle time.
Locations to Include
Deciding what to model as a route location depends largely on what happens at
the location. If an entity merely passes through a location en route to another without spending any time, it probably isnt necessary to include the location. For example, a water spray station through which parts pass without pausing probably
doesnt need to be included in a model. In considering what to dene as a location,
any point in the ow of an entity where one or more of the following actions take
place may be a candidate:
Place where an entity is detained for a specied period of time while
undergoing an activity (such as fabrication, inspection, or cleaning).
Place where an entity waits until some condition is satised (like the
availability of a resource or the accumulation of multiple entities).
Place or point where some action takes place or logic gets executed, even
though no time is required (splitting or destroying an entity, sending a
signal, incrementing an attribute or variable).

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Place or point where a decision is made about further routing (a branch in

a conveyor or path, an area in a store where customers decide to which
checkout counter they will go).
Location Resolution
Depending on the level of resolution needed for the model, a location may be an
entire factory or service facility at one extreme, or individual positions on a desk or
workbench at the other. The combination of locations into a single location is done
differently depending on whether the locations are parallel or serial locations.
When combining parallel locations having identical processing times, the
resulting location should have a capacity equal to the combined capacities of the
individual locations; however, the activity time should equal that of only one of
the locations (see Figure 7.4). A situation where multiple locations might be combined in this way is a parallel workstation. An example of a parallel workstation
is a work area where three machines perform the same operation. All three machines could be modeled as a single location with a capacity equal to three. Combining locations can signicantly reduce model size, especially when the number
of parallel units gets very large, such as a 20-station checkout area in a large shopping center or a 100-seat dining area in a restaurant.
When combining serial locations, the resultant location should have a capacity equal to the sum of the individual capacities and an activity time equal to the
sum of the activity times. An example of a combined serial sequence of locations

FIGURE 7.4
Example of combining
three parallel stations
into a single station.

Capacity 1

Capacity 1

Capacity 1

Operation 10

Capacity 1
Operation 30

Capacity 1

Operation 20
1 min. each

Capacity 1

Capacity 3

Capacity 1

Operation 10

Operation 20
1 min.

Operation 30

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FIGURE 7.5
Example of combining three serial stations into a single station.

Capacity 1

Capacity 1

Capacity 1

Capacity 1

Capacity 1

Station 1

Station 2
1 min.

Station 3
1 min.

Station 4
1 min.

Station 5

Capacity 1

Capacity 3

Capacity 1

Stations 24
3 min.

Station 5
1 min.

Station 1
1 min.

might be a synchronous transfer line that has multiple serial stations. All of them
could be represented as a single location with a capacity equal to the number of
stations (see Figure 7.5). Parts enter the location, spend an amount of time equal
to the sum of all the station times, and then exit the location. The behavior may
not be exactly the same as having individual stations, such as when the location
becomes blocked and up to three parts may be nished and waiting to move to
station 5. The modeler must decide if the representation is a good enough approximation for the intended purpose of the simulation.

7.3.3 Resources
Resources are the agents used to process entities in the system. Resources may be
either static or dynamic depending on whether they are stationary (like a copy machine) or move about in the system (like an operator). Dynamic resources behave
much like entities in that they both move about in the system. Like entities, resources may be either animate (living beings) or inanimate (a tool or machine). The
primary difference between entities and resources is that entities enter the system,
have a dened processing sequence, and, in most cases, nally leave the system.
Resources, however, usually dont have a dened ow sequence and remain in the
system (except for off-duty times). Resources often respond to requests for their
use, whereas entities are usually the objects requiring the use of resources.
In simulation, we are interested in how resources are utilized, how many resources are needed, and how entity processing is affected by resource availability.
The response time for acquiring a resource may also be of interest.

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Resources to Include
The decision as to whether a resource should be included in a model depends
largely on what impact it has on the behavior of the system. If the resource is
dedicated to a particular workstation, for example, there may be little benet in including it in the model since entities never have to wait for the resource to become
available before using it. You simply assign the processing time to the workstation.
If, on the other hand, the resource may not always be available (it experiences
downtime) or is a shared resource (multiple activities compete for the same
resource), it should probably be included. Once again, the consideration is how
much the resource is likely to affect system behavior.
Resource Travel Time
One consideration when modeling the use of resources is the travel time associated with mobile resources. A modeler must ask whether a resource is immediately
accessible when available, or if there is some travel time involved. For example, a
special piece of test equipment may be transported around to several locations in
a facility as needed. If the test equipment is available when needed at some location, but it takes 10 minutes to get the test equipment to the requesting location,
that time should be accounted for in the model. The time for the resource to move
to a location may also be a function of the distance it must travel.
Consumable Resources
Depending on the purpose of the simulation and degree of inuence on system
behavior, it may be desirable to model consumable resources. Consumable
resources are used up during the simulation and may include
Services such as electricity or compressed air.
Supplies such as staples or tooling.
Consumable resources are usually modeled either as a function of time or as
a step function associated with some event such as the completion of an operation.
This can be done by dening a variable or attribute that changes value with time
or by event. A variable representing the consumption of packaging materials, for
example, might be based on the number of entities processed at a packaging
station.
Transport Resources
Transport resources are resources used to move entities within the system.
Examples of transport resources are lift trucks, elevators, cranes, buses, and airplanes. These resources are dynamic and often are capable of carrying multiple
entities. Sometimes there are multiple pickup and drop-off points to deal with.
The transporter may even have a prescribed route it follows, similar to an entity
routing. A common example of this is a bus route.
In advanced manufacturing systems, the most complex element to model is
often the transport or material handling system. This is because of the complex
operation that is associated with these computer-controlled systems such as

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conveyor systems and automated guided vehicle systems (AGVS). Modeling

advanced material handling systems can be simplied if the modeling language
provides special constructs for dening them; otherwise the logic describing their
behavior must be dened by the modeler. ProModel provides facilities for modeling material handling systems that are described in Chapter 13.

7.3.4 Paths
Paths dene the course of travel for entities and resources. Paths may be isolated,
or they may be connected to other paths to create a path network. In ProModel
simple paths are automatically created when a routing path is dened. A routing
path connecting two locations becomes the default path of travel if no explicitly
dened path or path network connects the locations.
Paths linked together to form path networks are common in manufacturing
and service systems. In manufacturing, aisles are connected to create travel ways
for lift trucks and other material handlers. An AGVS sometimes has complex path
networks that allow controlled trafc ow of the vehicles in the system. In service
systems, ofce complexes have hallways connecting other hallways that connect
to ofces. Transportation systems use roadways, tracks, and so on that are often
interconnected.
When using path networks, there can sometimes be hundreds of routes to take
to get from one location to another. ProModel is able to automatically navigate entities and resources along the shortest path sequence between two locations. Optionally, you can explicitly dene the path sequence to take to get from one point
to any other point in the network.

7.4 Operational Elements

Operational elements dene the behavior of the different physical elements in the
system and how they interact. These include routings, operations, arrivals, entity
and resource movement, task selection rules, resource schedules, and downtimes
and repairs.
Most of the operational elements of a model can be dened using constructs
that are specically provided for modeling such elements. The operational rules
for each can usually be selected from menus. There may be situations, however,
that require the modeler to use special logic such as ifthen statements to
achieve the special operating behavior that is desired.

7.4.1 Routings
Routings dene the sequence of ow for entities from location to location. When
entities complete their activity at a location, the routing denes where the entity
goes next and species the criterion for selecting from among multiple possible
locations.

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Frequently entities may be routed to more than one possible location. When
choosing from among multiple alternative locations, a rule or criterion must be
dened for making the selection. A few typical rules that might be used for
selecting the next location in a routing decision include
Probabilisticentities are routed to one of several locations according to
a frequency distribution.
First availableentities go to the rst available location in the order they
are listed.
By turnthe selection rotates through the locations in the list.
Most available capacityentities select the location that has the most
available capacity.
Until fullentities continue to go to a single location until it is full and
then switch to another location, where they continue to go until it is full,
and so on.
Randomentities choose randomly from among a list of locations.
User conditionentities choose from among a list of locations based on a
condition dened by the user.
Recirculation
Sometimes entities revisit or pass through the same location multiple times. The
best approach to modeling this situation is to use an entity attribute to keep track
of the number of passes through the location and determine the operation or routing accordingly. When using an entity attribute, the attribute is incremented either
on entry to or on exit from a location and tested before making the particular operation or routing decision to see which pass the entity is currently on. Based on
the value of the attribute, a different operation or routing may be executed.
Unordered Routings
Certain systems may not require a specic sequence for visiting a set of locations
but allow activities to be performed in any order as long as they all eventually get
performed. An example is a document requiring signatures from several departments. The sequence in which the signatures are obtained may be unimportant as
long as all signatures are obtained.
In unordered routing situations, it is important to keep track of which
locations have or havent been visited. Entity attributes are usually the most practical way of tracking this information. An attribute may be dened for each possible location and then set to 1 whenever that location is visited. The routing is then
based on which of the dened attributes are still set to zero.

7.4.2 Entity Operations

An entity operation denes what happens to an entity when it enters a location.
For modeling purposes, the exact nature of the operation (machining, patient
check-in, or whatever) is unimportant. What is essential is to know what happens

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in terms of the time required, the resources used, and any other logic that impacts
system performance. For operations requiring more than a time and resource designation, detailed logic may need to be dened using ifthen statements, variable
assignment statements, or some other type of statement (see Section 7.4.8, Use
of Programming Logic).
An entity operation is one of several different types of activities that take
place in a system. As with any other activity in the system, the decision to include
an entity operation in a model should be based on whether the operation impacts
entity ow in some way. For example, if a labeling activity is performed on entities in motion on a conveyor, the activity need not be modeled unless there are situations where the labeler experiences frequent interruptions.
Consolidation of Entities
Entities often undergo operations where they are consolidated or become either
physically or logically connected with other entities. Examples of entity consolidation include batching and stacking. In such situations, entities are allowed to
simply accumulate until a specied quantity has been gathered, and then they are
grouped together into a single unit. Entity consolidation may be temporary, allowing them to later be separated, or permanent, in which case the consolidated
entities no longer retain their individual identities. Figure 7.6 illustrates these two
types of consolidation.
Examples of consolidating multiple entities to a single entity include
Accumulating multiple items to ll a container.
Gathering people together into groups of ve for a ride at an amusement park.
Grouping items to load them into an oven for heating.
In ProModel, entities are consolidated permanently using the COMBINE command. Entities may be consolidated temporarily using the GROUP command.
Attachment of Entities
In addition to consolidating accumulated entities at a location, entities can also be
attached to a specic entity at a location. Examples of attaching entities might be

FIGURE 7.6
Consolidation of
entities into a single
entity. In (a)
permanent
consolidation, batched
entities get destroyed.
In (b) temporary
consolidation, batched
entities are preserved
for later unbatching.

before

after
(a)

before
(b)

after

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FIGURE 7.7
Attachment of one or
more entities to
another entity. In (a)
permanent attachment,
the attached entities
get destroyed. In (b)
temporary attachment,
the attached entities
are preserved for later
detachment.

after
before
( a)

after
before
(b)

attaching a shipping document to an order ready for delivery, assembling wheels

to a chassis, or placing items into a container. The difference between attaching
entities and consolidating entities is that entities become attached to an existing
base or main entity that must be present at the location. It is the presence of the
main entity at the location that triggers the routing of the entities to be attached. In
consolidation, entities are combined in whichever order they happen to enter the
location. Like consolidation, attachment may be temporary, where the attached
entities are later detached, or permanent, where the attached entities are destroyed
and only the initial entity to which they were attached continues. Figure 7.7 illustrates these two types of attachment.
Examples of attaching entities to another entity include
Attaching component parts to a base assembly.
Delivering a completed order to a waiting customer.
Loading material into a container.
In ProModel, entities are attached to another entity using the LOAD command
for temporary attachments or the JOIN command for permanent attachments. Corresponding LOAD and JOIN routings must also be dened for the entities to be
loaded or joined.
Dividing Entities
In some entity processes, a single entity is converted into two or more new entities. An example of entity splitting might be an item that is cut into smaller pieces
or a purchase order that has carbon copies removed for ling or sending to
accounting. Entities are divided in one of two ways: either the entity is split up
into two or more new entities and the original entity no longer exists; or additional
entities are merely created (cloned) from the original entity, which continues to
exist. These two methods are shown in Figure 7.8.

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FIGURE 7.8
Multiple entities
created from a single
entity. Either (a) the
entity splits into
multiple entities (the
original entity is
destroyed) or (b) the
entity creates one or
more entities (the
original entity
continues).

before

after
(a)

before
after
(b)

Examples of entities being split or creating new entities from a single entity
include
A container or pallet load being broken down into the individual items
comprising the load.
Driving in and leaving a car at an automotive service center.
Separating a form from a multiform document.
A customer placing an order that is processed while the customer waits.
A length of bar stock being cut into smaller pieces.
In ProModel, entities are split using a SPLIT statement. New entities are created
from an existing entity using a CREATE statement. Alternatively, entities can be conveniently split or created using the routing options provided in ProModel.

7.4.3 Entity Arrivals

Entity arrivals dene the time, quantity, frequency, and location of entities entering the system. Examples of arrivals are customers arriving at a post ofce or cars
arriving at an intersection. Entities may arrive to a manufacturing or service system in one of several different ways:

Periodicthey arrive at a periodic interval.

Scheduledthey arrive at specied times.
Fluctuatingthe rate of arrival uctuates with time.
Event triggeredthey arrive when triggered by some event.

In any case, entities can arrive individually or in batches.

Periodic Arrivals
Periodic arrivals occur more or less at the same interval each time. They may
occur in varying quantities, and the interval is often dened as a random variable.
Periodic arrivals are often used to model the output of an upstream process that
feeds into the system being simulated. For example, computer monitors might
arrive from an assembly line to be packaged at an interval that is normally

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distributed with a mean of 1.6 minutes and a standard deviation of 0.2 minute. Examples of periodic arrivals include
Parts arriving from an upstream operation that is not included in the model.
Customers arriving to use a copy machine.
Phone calls for customer service during a particular part of the day.
Periodic arrivals are dened in ProModel by using the arrivals table.
Scheduled Arrivals
Scheduled arrivals occur when entities arrive at specied times with possibly some
dened variation (that is, a percentage will arrive early or late). Scheduled arrivals
may occur in quantities greater than one such as a shuttle bus transporting guests at
a scheduled time. It is often desirable to be able to read in a schedule from an external le, especially when the number of scheduled arrivals is large and the schedule may change from run to run. Examples of scheduled arrivals include
Customer appointments to receive a professional service such as counseling.
Patients scheduled for lab work.
Production release times created through an MRP (material requirements
planning) system.
Scheduled arrivals sometime occur at intervals, such as appointments that occur
at 15-minute intervals with some variation. This may sound like a periodic arrival;
however, periodic arrivals are autocorrelated in that the absolute time of each arrival is dependent on the time of the previous arrival. In scheduled arrival intervals, each arrival occurs independently of the previous arrival. If one appointment
arrives early or late, it will not affect when the next appointment arrives.
ProModel provides a straightforward way for dening scheduled arrivals
using the arrivals table. A variation may be assigned to a scheduled arrival to simulate early or late arrivals for appointments.
Fluctuating Arrivals
Sometimes entities arrive at a rate that uctuates with time. For example, the rate
at which customers arrive at a bank usually varies throughout the day with peak
and lull times. This pattern may be repeated each day (see Figure 7.9). Examples
of uctuating arrivals include
Customers arriving at a restaurant.
Arriving ights at an international airport.
Arriving phone calls for customer service.
In ProModel, uctuating arrivals are specied by dening an arrival cycle
pattern for a time period that may be repeated as often as desired.
Event-Triggered Arrivals
In many situations, entities are introduced to the system by some internal trigger
such as the completion of an operation or the lowering of an inventory level to a

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FIGURE 7.9
120

A daily cycle pattern

of arrivals.
Arrival quantity

100
80
60
40
20
9A.M. 10A.M. 11A.M.12 NOON 1P.M. 2P.M. 3P.M. 4P.M. 5P.M. 6P.M.
Hour of day

reorder point. Triggered arrivals might occur when

A kanban or delivery signal is received.
Inventory drops to the reorder-point level.
Conditions have been met to start processing a new entity.
Sometimes the signal to initiate an arrival or to begin production of an item is
triggered by some other arrival. An example of this is the arrival of a customer order
for a product. In such instances, it isnt the order that ows through the system but
the product the order triggers. To model this situation, you dene the characteristic
of the order arrival (frequency, type, or the like) and then have the arriving order
trigger production of the product.
In ProModel, entity arrivals can be triggered using an ORDER statement. This
statement can be used anywhere in the model so that any situation can cause a new
entity to be ordered into the model.

7.4.4 Entity and Resource Movement

Entities and resources seldom remain stationary in a system. Entities move through
the system from location to location for processing. Resources also move to different locations where they are requested for use. Additionally, resources frequently
move or escort entities in the system.
Movement can be handled in three basic ways in a simulation:
1. Ignore the movement.
2. Model the move using a simple move time (which may also be dened
by speed and distance).
3. Model the move using a path network that requires the moving entity or
resource to contend with trafc.

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A path network essentially imitates the network of aisles or hallways found

on plant oors and in ofce facilities. A path network reduces the number of paths
that need to be dened if there are a lot of different routings yet all movement
shares common path segments.
The decision as to which method to use depends once again on the level of
detail needed for a valid model. In making this determination, the following rules
may be useful:
If the move time is negligible compared to activity times, or if it makes
sense to simply include it as part of the operation time, it may be ignored.
If move times are signicant but trafc congestion is light, a simple move
time (or speed and distance) should be dened.
If move times are signicant and trafc congestion is heavy, a path
network should be dened.

7.4.5 Accessing Locations and Resources

Much of the activity in a simulation is governed by how entities are able to access
locations and resources for processing. Entities may be given priorities when
contending with other entities for a particular location or resource. The location
or resource might also be given decision-making capability for selecting from
among multiple items awaiting input.
Use of Priorities
Locations and resources may be requested with a particular priority in ProModel.
Priorities range from 0 to 999, with higher values having higher priority. If no priority is specied, it is assumed to be 0. For simple prioritizing, you should use priorities from 0 to 99. Priorities greater than 99 are for preempting entities and
downtimes currently in control of a location or resource. The command Get
Operator, 10 will attempt to get the resource called Operator with a priority of
10. If the Operator is available when requested, the priority has no signicance. If,
however, the Operator is currently busy, this request having a priority of 10 will
get the Operator before any other waiting request with a lower priority.
Preemption
Sometimes it is desirable to have a resource or location respond immediately to a
task, interrupting the current activity it is doing. This ability to bump another
activity or entity that is using a location or resource is referred to as preemption.
For example, an emergency patient requesting a particular doctor may preempt a
patient receiving routine treatment by the doctor. Manufacturing and service organizations frequently have hot jobs that take priority over any routine job
being done. Preemption is achieved by specifying a preemptive priority (100
to 999) for entering the location or acquiring the resource.
Priority values in ProModel are divided into 10 levels (0 to 99, 100 to 199, . . . ,
900 to 999). Levels higher than 99 are used to preempt entities or downtimes of a
lower level. Multiple preemptive levels make it possible to preempt entities or
downtimes that are themselves preemptive.

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The level of preemption to specify is determined by whether an entity or a

downtime is being preempted. To preempt an entity that is currently using a location or resource, the preempting entity or downtime must have a priority that is at
least one level higher than the current entity. For example, a priority of 100 would
preempt any entity that had acquired a location or resource with a priority of
0 to 99. To preempt a downtime currently in effect at a location or resource, the
preempting entity or downtime must have a priority that is at least two levels
higher than the downtime (the exception to this is a setup downtime, which is preempted using the same rules as those for preempting an entity).
The primary issue associated with preemption is what to do with the preempted entity. The common way of handling a preempted entity is to simply put
it on hold until the resource or location becomes available again for use. Then any
remaining time is completed. This is the default way that ProModel handles preemption. Alternatively, it may be desirable to get a different resource instead of
waiting for the one being used by the preempting entity. Sometimes it may be necessary to delay the preemption or possibly even ignore it, depending on certain
circumstances in the model. For example, it may be unallowable to interrupt a machining cycle or a surgical operation. In such instances, a preemptive attempt may
just have to wait. ProModel allows you to write special preemption logic for
achieving these kinds of effects.
Task Selection Rules
Locations and resources are often discriminating with respect to which waiting
entity or activity they next select to service. While priorities determine the order
in which entities line up to use a location or resource, task selection rules determine which entity waiting for a location or resource is actually granted permission
to use the location or resource when it becomes available. For example, parts
waiting to be processed at a machine may also be competing with parts waiting to
be reworked on the same machine. In such a situation, it may be desirable to rst
select the part requiring rework.
Task selection plays a crucial role in simulation-based scheduling (Thompson
1994). Rules range from simple priority rules such as shortest processing time,
critical ratio, or earliest due date to combinatorial rules and user-dened decision
logic. User-dened decision logic provides the most exible means for dening
task selection. It allows the user to dene the logic for selecting the next task by
examining the nature of all of the tasks waiting to be performed, looking upstream
or looking ahead to see what entities or tasks will be coming along, and looking
downstream to see what tasks will best serve the needs of subsequent waiting
resources. By default locations and resources in ProModel respond to the highestpriority request that has been waiting the longest. Other criteria may be dened,
however, to force a different response.

7.4.6 Resource Scheduling

Resources, as well as locations, frequently have scheduled times during which
they are unavailable. These include off-shift periods, breaks, and preventive

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maintenance. If it is necessary to model periods of availability and unavailability

to have a valid model, some of the issues that need to be addressed when modeling scheduled availability include
Deciding what to do with a task that is only half completed when the end
of a shift occurs.
Making sure that resource statistics are based only on the scheduled
available time and not on the entire simulation time.
Deciding what to do with arrivals that occur at a location that is off shift.
Going off Schedule in the Middle of a Task
It is not uncommon when running a simulation with work schedules to have a resource go off schedule in the middle of a task (the current task is preempted). For
short tasks, this is generally not a problem; you simply allow the resource to complete the task and then allow the schedule to take control. For longer tasks that
may take hours, it usually isnt desirable to keep the resource until the task is completed. There are at least three options to take:
1. Dont start the task in the rst place.
2. Interrupt the task and go off schedule.
3. If the task is nearly complete, go ahead and nish the task.
To determine whether to start the task in the rst place, the modeler needs to test
for the time before the next schedule change and compare it with the anticipated
time to complete the task at hand. Interrupting a task usually requires only that a preemptive priority be given to the schedule. To determine whether the task is almost
complete, a variable should be assigned to the completion time, which can be
checked at the time of the schedule change. A related situation is when several tasks
are waiting that must be processed before going off schedule (for example, a checkout stand in a grocery store closes but must service current customers in line). This
situation is facilitated if some logic can be executed at the time a schedule is about to
be executed. This logic needs to be able to delay the schedule execution. ProModel
allows these types of delays to be dened.
Basing Resource Statistics on Scheduled Time
When including work schedules in a model, it is generally desirable to gather statistics on the resource, such as utilization statistics, based on the scheduled time
availablenot on total simulation time. ProModel automatically excludes offscheduled time when calculating statistics. This way, statistics are reported for resources and locations only for the time during which they were scheduled to be
available.
Handling Arrivals during Off-Shift Times
It is usually desirable to prevent arrivals (especially human entities) from occurring during off-schedule times because you dont want them to have to wait until
a location or resource is back on schedule. To turn off arrivals during off-shift

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times, one solution is to try to synchronize the arrivals with the work schedule.
This usually complicates the way arrivals are dened. Another solution, and usually an easier one, is to have the arrivals enter a preliminary location where they
test whether the facility is closed and, if so, exit the system. In ProModel, if a
location where entities are scheduled to arrive is unavailable at the time of an
arrival, the arriving entities are simply discarded.

7.4.7 Downtimes and Repairs

It is not uncommon for resources and even locations to unexpectedly go down or
become unavailable for one reason or another, such as a mechanical failure or a
personal interruption. Downtimes usually occur periodically as a function of total
elapsed time, time in use, or number of times used.
Downtimes Based on Total Elapsed Time
An example of a periodic downtime based on elapsed clock time might be a
worker who takes a break every two hours. Scheduled maintenance is also a type
of downtime performed at periodic intervals based on elapsed clock time.
Figure 7.10 illustrates how a downtime based on elapsed time would be simulated. Notice that the calculation of the interval between downtimes takes into account not only busy time, but also idle time and downtime. In other words, it is the
total elapsed time from the start of one downtime to the start of the next. Downtimes based on total elapsed time are often scheduled downtimes during which
operational statistics on the location or resource are suspended. ProModel allows
you to designate whether a particular downtime is to be counted as scheduled
downtime or unscheduled downtime.
Sometimes it may be desirable to use elapsed time to dene random equipment failures. This is especially true if this is how historical data were gathered on
the downtime. When using historical data, it is important to determine if the time
between failure was based on (1) the total elapsed time from one failure to the
next, (2) the time between the repair of one failure to the time of the next failure
(operational time between failures), or (3) the time that the machine was actually
in operation (operating time between failures). ProModel accepts downtime denitions based on cases 1 and 3, but requires that case 2 be converted to case 1. This
is done by adding the time until the next failure to the repair time of the last failure.
For example, if the operational time between failures is exponentially distributed
with a mean of 10 minutes and the repair time is exponentially distributed with a

FIGURE 7.10
Resource downtime
occurring every 20
minutes based on total
elapsed time.

Start

Interrupt

Interrupt

10

Idle

Busy

Idle

Down
Time (minutes)

14
Busy

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FIGURE 7.11

Start

Resource downtime
occurring every 20
minutes, based on
operating time.

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Interrupt
12
Idle

Busy

8
Idle

Busy

Time (minutes)

mean of 2 minutes, the time between failures should be dened as xlast + E(10)
where xlast is the last repair time generated using E(2) minutes.
Downtimes Based on Time in Use
Most equipment and machine failures occur only when the resource is in use. A
mechanical or tool failure, for example, generally happens only when a machine
is running, not while a machine is idle. In this situation, the interval between
downtimes would be dened relative to actual machine operation time. A machine
that goes down every 20 minutes of operating time for a three-minute repair is
illustrated in Figure 7.11. Note that any idle times and downtimes are not included
in determining when the next downtime occurs. The only time counted is the actual operating time.
Because downtimes usually occur randomly, the time to failure is most accurately dened as a probability distribution. Studies have shown, for example, that
the operating time to failure is often exponentially distributed.
Downtimes Based on the Number of Times Used
The last type of downtime occurs based on the number of times a location was
used. For example, a tool on a machine may need to be replaced every 50 cycles
due to tool wear, or a copy machine may need paper added after a mean of 200
copies with a standard deviation of 25 copies. ProModel permits downtimes to be
dened in this manner by selecting ENTRY as the type of downtime and then specifying the number of entity entries between downtimes.
Downtime Resolution
Unfortunately, data are rarely available on equipment downtime. When they are
available, they are often recorded as overall downtime and seldom broken down
into number of times down and time between failures. Depending on the nature of
the downtime information and degree of resolution required for the simulation,
downtimes can be treated in the following ways:
Ignore the downtime.
Simply increase processing times to adjust for downtime.
Use average values for mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean
time to repair (MTTR).
Use statistical distributions for time between failures and time to repair.
Ignoring Downtime. There are several situations where it might make sense to
ignore downtimes in building a simulation model. Obviously, one situation is
where absolutely no data are unavailable on downtimes. If there is no knowledge

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of resource downtimes, it is appropriate to model the resource with no downtimes

and document it as such in the nal write-up. When there are downtimes, but they
are extremely infrequent and not likely to affect model performance for the period
of the study, it is safe to ignore them. For example, if a machine fails only two or
three times a year and you are trying to predict processing capacity for the next
workweek, it doesnt make sense to include the downtime. It is also safe to ignore
occasional downtimes that are very small compared to activity times. If, for example, a downtime takes only seconds to correct (like clearing a part in a machine
or an occasional paper jam in a copy machine), it could be ignored.
Increasing Processing Times. A common way of treating downtime, due in part
to the lack of good downtime data, is to simply reduce the production capacity of
the machine by the downtime percentage. In other words, if a machine has an effective capacity of 100 parts per hour and experiences a 10 percent downtime, the
effective capacity is reduced to 90 parts per hour. This spreads the downtime
across each machine cycle so that both the mean time between failures and the
mean time to repair are very small and both are constant. Thus no consideration is
given for the variability in both time between failures and time to repair that typies most production systems. Law (1986) has shown that this deterministic adjustment for downtime can produce results that differ greatly from the results
based on actual machine downtimes.
MTBF/MTTR. Two parts to any downtime should be dened when modeling
downtime. One, time between failures, denes the interval between failures. The
other, time to repair, denes the time required to bring a resource back online
whenever it goes down. Often downtimes are dened in terms of mean time
between failures (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR). Using average times
for these intervals presents the same problems as using average times for any activity in a simulation: it fails to account for variability, which can have a signicant impact on system performance.
Using Statistical Distributions. Whenever possible, time between failures and
time to repair should be represented by statistical distributions that reect the
variation that is characteristic of these elements. Studies have shown that the time
until failure, particularly due to items (like bearings or tooling) that wear, tends to
follow a Weibull distribution. Repair times often follow a lognormal distribution.
Elapsed Time or Usage Time?
When determining the distribution for time to failure, a distinction should be
made between downtime events that can occur anytime whether the resource is
operating or idle and downtime events that occur only when a resource is in use.
As explained earlier, downtimes that can occur anytime should be dened as a
function of clock time. If the resource goes down only while in operation, it
should be dened as a function of time in use.
Erroneously basing downtime on elapsed time when it should be based on
operating time articially inates time between failures by the inclusion of idle

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time. It also implies that during periods of high equipment utilization, the same
amount of downtime occurs as during low utilization periods. Equipment failures
should generally be based on operating time and not on elapsed time because
elapsed time includes operating time, idle time, and downtime. It should be left to
the simulation to determine how idle time and downtime affect the overall elapsed
time between failures.
To illustrate the difference this can make, lets assume that the following
times were logged for a given operation:
Status

Time (Hours)

In use
Down
Idle

20
5
15

Total time

40

If it is assumed that downtime is a function of total time, then the percentage of

downtime would be calculated to be 5 hours/40 hours, or 12.5 percent. If, however, it is assumed that the downtime is a function of usage time, then the downtime percentage would be 5 hours/20 hours, or 25 percent. Now lets suppose that
the system is modeled with increased input to the operation so that it is never
starved (the idle time = 0). If downtime is assumed to be 12.5 percent, the total
time down will be .125 40 = 5 hours. If, on the other hand, we use the assumption that it is 25 percent, then the time down will end up being .25 40 hours =
10 hours. This is a difference of ve hours, which means that if downtime is
falsely assumed to be a function of total time, the simulation would realize ve
extra hours of production in a 40-hour period that shouldnt have happened.
Handling Interrupted Entities
When a resource goes down, there might be entities that were in the middle of
being processed that are now left dangling (that is, they have been preempted).
For example, a machine might break down while running the seventh part of a
batch of 20 parts. The modeler must decide what to do with these entities. Several
alternatives may be chosen, and the modeler must select which alternative is the
most appropriate:

Resume processing the entity after the downtime is over.

Find another available resource to continue the process.
Scrap the entity.
Delay start of the downtime until the entity is processed.

The last option is the easiest way to handle downtimes and, in fact, may be
adequate in situations where either the processing times or the downtimes are relatively short. In such circumstances, the delay in entity ow is still going to
closely approximate what would happen in the actual system.
If the entity resumes processing later using either the same or another resource, a decision must be made as to whether only the remaining process time is

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used or if additional time must be added. By default, ProModel suspends processing until the location or resource returns to operation. Alternatively, other logic
may be dened.

7.4.8 Use of Programming Logic

Sometimes the desired model behavior cant be achieved using a canned construct provided by the software. In these instances, it is necessary to use programming logic that tests probabilities, variables, and attributes to make behavioral
decisions. A brief explanation of how these elements can be used in developing a
simulation model is given here.
Using Probabilities to Model Probabilistic Behavior
Sometimes operational elements (routings, operations, or others) exhibit random
behavior. To model a routing that occurs randomly, it is easy just to select a probabilistic routing rule and specify the probability value. The routing is then randomly
chosen according to the probability specied. For operations that occur randomly
at a particular location, however, a probability function must be used in connection
with ifthen logic. At an inspection and rework station, for example, suppose that
a product is defective 10 percent of the time and requires 3 1 minutes (uniformly
distributed) to correct the defect. Assuming rand() is a function that returns a
random value between 0 and 1, the code for dening this behavior might be as
follows:
if rand() <= .10
then wait U(3,1) min

A similar situation occurs in activity times that have more than one distribution. For example, when a machine goes down, 30 percent of the time it takes
Triangular(0.2, 1.5, 3) minutes to repair and 70 percent of the time it takes Triangular(3, 7.5, 15) minutes to repair. The logic for the downtime denition might be
if rand() <= .30
then wait T(.2, 1.5, 3) min
else wait T(3, 7.5, 15) min

Another example of multidistribution activity is a call center that handles

three different types of calls that we will designate as A, B, and C. The time to
handle calls is exponentially distributed, but the mean time is different depending
on the type of call (see Table 7.1). To model this situation, the following code

TABLE 7.1 Table of Service Times for Different Call Types

Call Type

Probability of Occurrence

Service Time (Minutes)

A
B
C

.20
.50
.30

E(5)
E(8)
E(12)

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might be entered (// are used at the beginning of a comment line):

// set a real variable (rValue) to a random number
real rValue = rand()
// test for call type A
if rValue <=.20
then wait E(5) min
else if rValue <=.70
then wait E(8) min
else wait E(12) min

Using Attributes to Model Special Decision Logic

Sometimes an item that has passed through the same location a second time
requires less time to be reworked than it took for the initial operation. In this situation, an attribute of the entity should be the basis of the decision because we need
to test how many times that particular entity has visited the location. An attribute
we will call Pass will need to be dened in the attribute module. If a normal operation takes ve minutes but a rework operation takes only two minutes, the following code would be entered in the operation logic for the location:
// increment the value of Pass by one
INC Pass
if Pass = 1
then wait 5 min
else wait 2 min

Using Global Variables to Gather Statistics

Global variables are placeholders for values that may change during the simulation. What makes them global is that they are accessible from any place in the
model by any object in the model, and they exist during the entire simulation.
Global variables are dened by the user for user-dened purposes. For example, a variable may be dened to keep track of the total number of entities in a
certain area of the system (work in process). Each time an entity enters the area, it
increments the variable. Also, each time an entity leaves the area, it decrements
the variable. Because the user has the option of collecting statistics on global variables, either the simple or time-weighted average value of the variable can be
reported at the end of the simulation. A time series report showing all of the
changes in the variable over time can also be reported.
Using Local Variables for Looping
Local variables are variables that are declared within the logic itself, either right
before the point of use or at the beginning of the logic block. A local variable
exists only for the current object executing the block of logic. When the object
nishes executing the logic block in which the local variable was dened, the
variable disappears. A local variable may be thought of as a temporary attribute of
the object executing the logic because multiple objects executing the same logic
at the same time would each have their own local variables assigned to them while
executing the block of logic. Local variables are useful primarily for executing a
logic loop. Suppose, for example, that you wanted to assign the value of 4 to the
rst 10 elements of an array called NumOfBins that was dened in the Array

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module. To do this within operation logic (or in any other logic), you would enter
something like the following, where Count is dened as a local variable:
int Count = 1
while Count < 11 do
{
NumOfBins[Count] = 4
Inc Count
}

The braces { and } are the ProModel notation (also used in C++ and Java)
for starting and ending a block of logic. In this case it is the block of statements to be
executed repeatedly by an object as long as the local variable Count is less than 11.

7.5 Miscellaneous Modeling Issues

This section addresses special issues that may be encountered in simulation. They
dont t well under previous headings, so they are put in a collection here even
though they are not necessarily related.

7.5.1 Modeling Rare Occurrences

Often there exist situations in the real world that occur only rarely. For example, a
machine may break down once every two months, or only one in a thousand parts is
rejected at an inspection station. In simulation analysis, we are generally interested
in the normal behavior of the system, not extremely rare behavior. It is advisable to
ignore rare situations and exclude them from the simulation model. This approach
not only reduces modeling time but also simplies the model and helps maintain the
focus of everyone involved in the model on key input variables.
But some rare situations have a signicant impact on the operation of the system. For example, a plant shutdown may bring the entire operation to a stop. If the
focus of interest is to evaluate the effects of the rare occurrence, such as how long
it takes for inventories to be depleted if a shutdown occurs, then it makes sense to
include the rare occurrence in the model. The easiest way to model a rare event is
not to let the model run for six months or a year before the event occurs, but to go
ahead and force the event to happen. The point of modeling the rare event is to see
what impact it has on system behavior, not to predict when it actually might occur.
So it really doesnt matter when it happens as long as the state of the model is typical of what the system might be when it does occur.

7.5.2 Large-Scale Modeling

Occasionally it may be desirable to model a large system such as an entire factory
or the entire activity in an international airport. The tendency (especially for
novice simulators) is to painstakingly piece together a huge, complex model only
to nd that it runs nowhere near the way that was expected and may not even run
at all. The disappointment of not getting the model to run correctly the rst time
is soon overshadowed by the utter despair in trying to debug such an enormous

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model. When faced with building a supermodel, it is always a good idea to partition the model into several submodels and tackle the problem on a smaller scale
rst. Once each of the submodels has been built and validated, they can be merged
into a larger composite model. This composite model can be structured either as a
single monolithic model or as a hierarchical model in which the details of each
submodel are hidden unless explicitly opened for viewing. Several ways have
been described for merging individual submodels into a composite model
(Jayaraman and Agarwal 1996). Three of the most common ways that might be
considered for integrating submodels are
Option 1: Integrate all of the submodels just as they have been built. This
approach preserves all of the detail and therefore accuracy of the individual
submodels. However, the resulting composite model may be enormous and
cause lengthy execution times. The composite model may be structured as
a at model or, to reduce complexity, as a hierarchical model.
Option 2: Use only the recorded output from one or more of the submodels.
By simulating and recording the time at which each entity exits the model
for a single submodel, these exit times can be used in place of the
submodel for determining the arrival times for the larger model. This
eliminates the need to include the overhead of the individual submodel in
the composite model. This technique, while drastically reducing the
complexity of the composite model, may not be possible if the interaction
with the submodel is two-way. For submodels representing subsystems
that simply feed into a larger system (in which case the subsystem operates
fairly independently of downstream activities), this technique is valid. An
example is an assembly facility in which fabricated components or even
subassemblies feed into a nal assembly line. Basically, each feeder line is
viewed as a black box whose output is read from a le.
Option 3: Represent the output of one or more of the submodels as
statistical distributions. This approach is the same as option 2, but instead
of using the recorded output times from the submodel in the composite
model, a statistical distribution is t to the output times and used to
generate the input to the composite model. This technique eliminates the
need for using data les that, depending on the submodel, may be quite
large. Theoretically, it should also be more accurate because the true
underlying distribution is used instead of just a sample unless there are
discontinuities in the output. Multiple sample streams can also be
generated for running multiple replications.

7.5.3 Cost Modeling

Often it is desirable to include cost in a model to determine the most cost-effective
solution to a design problem. If, for example, two operators on an assembly line result in the same performance as using three robots, the decision may end up being
based on cost rather than performance. There are two approaches to modeling cost.

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One is to include cost factors in the model itself and dynamically update cost collection variables during the simulation. ProModel includes a cost module for assigning costs to different factors in the simulation such as entity cost, waiting cost,
and operation cost. The alternative approach is to run a cost analysis after the simulation, applying cost factors to collected cost drivers such as resource utilization
or time spent in storage. The rst method is best when it is difcult to summarize
cost drivers. For example, the cost per unit of production may be based on the
types of resources used and the time for using each type. This may be a lot of information for each entity to carry using attributes. It is much easier to simply update the entitys cost attribute dynamically whenever a particular resource has
been used. Dynamic cost tracking suffers, however, from requiring cost factors to
be considered during the modeling stage rather than the analysis stage. For some
models, it may be difcult to dynamically track costs during a simulation, especially when relationships become very complex.
The preferred way to analyze costs, whenever possible, is to do a postsimulation analysis and to treat cost modeling as a follow-on activity to system modeling rather than as a concurrent activity (see Lenz and Neitzel 1995). There are
several advantages to separating the logic model from the cost model. First, the
model is not encumbered with tracking information that does not directly affect
how the model operates. Second, and perhaps more importantly, post analysis of
costs gives more exibility for doing what-if scenarios with the cost model. For
example, different cost scenarios can be run based on varying labor rates in a
matter of seconds when applied to simulation output data that are immediately
available. If modeled during the simulation, a separate simulation would have to
be run applying each labor rate.

7.6 Summary
Model building is a process that takes a conceptual model and converts it to a simulation model. This requires a knowledge of the modeling paradigm of the particular simulation software being used and a familiarity with the different modeling
constructs that are provided in the software. Building a model involves knowing
what elements to include in the model and how to best express those elements in
the model. The principle of parsimony should always be followed, which results
in the most minimal model possible that achieves the simulation objectives.
Finally, the keys to successful modeling are seeing lots of examples and practice,
practice, practice!

7.7 Review Questions

1. How is modeling an art as well as a science?
2. What is a modeling paradigm?
3. Describe the modeling paradigm used in a specic simulation product.

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4. Suppose you were modeling an inspection station as an object. Identify

two attributes and one behavior you might want to dene for it.
5. Identify ve different things an entity might represent in a
manufacturing or service simulation.
6. For a manufacturing operation that produces 300 different part types,
how would you represent the different part types?
7. A stand and power cord are assembled to a monitor at an assembly
station. Stands are produced in-house and are not always available
when needed. Power cords are purchased nished and are always
available at the station. What entity types (monitor, cord, or stand)
would you include in the model and, conceptually, how would you
model this assembly operation?
8. Every hour, a stack of purchase orders is delivered to the purchasing
department for processing. The stack is routed sequentially to three
different people who review, approve, and send out the orders. The
orders move together as a stack, although they are processed individually
at each station. The processing time at each activity is a function of the
number of orders in the stack. The number of orders in a stack can be
determined by a probability distribution. Conceptually, how would you
model this process and still capture the essence of what is happening?
9. What criteria would you use to identify the route stops or locations in a
ow sequence to include in a model?
10. Suppose you are modeling a system with bins in which parts are
transported. Would you model the bins as resources or entities? Justify
your answer.
11. How would you model a consumable resource such as energy
consumption that occurs based on the length of time a particular
machine is in operation?
12. What is the danger of using simple time values to model material
movement if the material handling system often encounters trafc
delays?
13. How would you use an entity attribute to model multiple routing passes
through the same location in which a different operation time is
required depending on the pass?
14. An operator must inspect every fth part at a manual workstation.
Conceptually, how would you model this activity if the operation takes
ve minutes and inspection takes two minutes?
15. When attaching entities to another entity, under what circumstances
would you want to preserve the identities of the entities being attached?
16. Dene four types of arrivals and give an example of each.
17. A factory operates with two eight-hour shifts (changeover occurs
without interruption) ve days a week. If you wanted to simulate the
system for four weeks, how would you set the run length in hours?

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18. What is the problem with modeling downtimes in terms of mean time
between failures (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR)?
19. Why should unplanned downtimes or failures be dened as a function
of usage time rather than total elapsed time on the clock?
20. In modeling repair times, how should the time spent waiting for a
repairperson be modeled?
21. What is preemption? What activities or events might preempt other
activities in a simulation?
22. A boring machine experiences downtimes every ve hours
(exponentially distributed). It also requires routine preventive
maintenance (PM) after every eight hours (xed) of operation. If a
downtime occurs within two hours of the next scheduled PM, the PM
is performed as part of the repair time (no added time is needed) and,
after completing the repair coupled with the PM, the next PM is set
for eight hours away. Conceptually, how would you model this
situation?
23. A real estate agent schedules six customers (potential buyers) each day,
one every 1.5 hours, starting at 8 A.M. Customers are expected to arrive
for their appointments at the scheduled times. However, past experience
shows that customer arrival times are normally distributed with a mean
equal to the scheduled time and a standard deviation of ve minutes.
The time the agent spends with each customer is normally distributed
with a mean of 1.4 hours and a standard deviation of .2 hours. Develop a
simulation model to calculate the expected waiting time for customers.

References
Jayaraman, Arun, and Arun Agarwal. Simulating an Engine Plant. Manufacturing Engineering, November 1996, pp. 6068.
Law, A. M. Introduction to Simulation: A Powerful Tool for Analyzing Complex Manufacturing Systems. Industrial Engineering, 1986, 18(5):5758.
Lenz, John, and Ray Neitzel. Cost Modeling: An Effective Means to Compare Alternatives. Industrial Engineering, January 1995, pp. 1820.
Shannon, Robert E. Introduction to the Art and Science of Simulation. In Proceedings of
the 1998 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. D. J. Medeiros, E. F. Watson, J. S. Carson,
and M. S. Manivannan. Piscataway, NJ: Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers, 1998.
Thompson, Michael B. Expanding Simulation beyond Planning and Design. Industrial
Engineering, October 1994, pp. 6466.

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8. Model Verification and

Validation

MODEL VERIFICATION
AND VALIDATION

Truth comes out of error more easily than out of confusion.

Francis Bacon

8.1 Introduction
Building a simulation model is much like developing an architectural plan for a
house. A good architect will review the plan and specications with the client or
owner of the house to ensure that the design meets the clients expectations. The
architect will also carefully check all dimensions and other specications shown
on the plan for accuracy. Once the architect is reasonably satised that the right
information has been accurately represented, a contractor can be given the plan to
begin building the house. In a similar way the simulation analyst should examine
the validity and correctness of the model before using it to make implementation
decisions.
In this chapter we cover the importance and challenges associated with model
verication and validation. We also present techniques for verifying and validating models. Balci (1997) provides a taxonomy of more than 77 techniques for
model verication and validation. In this chapter we give only a few of the more
common and practical methods used. The greatest problem with verication and
validation is not one of failing to use the right techniques but failing to use any
technique. Questions addressed in this chapter include the following:

What are model verication and validation?

What are obstacles to model verication and validation?
What techniques are used to verify and validate a model?
How are model verication and validation maintained?

Two case studies are presented at the end of the chapter showing how verication and validation techniques have been used in actual simulation projects.
203

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8.2 Importance of Model Verication and Validation

Model building is, by nature, very error prone. The modeler must translate the
real-world system into a conceptual model that, in turn, must be translated into a
simulation model. This translation process is iterative as the modelers conception
of the real system changes and the modeling approach continues to be rened (see
Figure 8.1). In this translation process, there is plenty of room for making errors.
Verication and validation processes have been developed to reduce and ideally
eliminate these errors.
Model verication is the process of determining whether the simulation
model correctly reects the conceptual model. Model validation is the process of
determining whether the conceptual model correctly reects the real system.
Model verication and validation are critical to the success of a simulation
project. Important decisions may be based on the outcome of the simulation experiment, and, therefore, demonstrable evidence should exist for the validity of
the model. For simulations that are used on an ongoing basis for operational decisions such as production scheduling, model validation is even more important.
The Department of Defense (DoD) has recognized the importance of model
validation and has established a dened set of criteria for determining model
accreditation. Accreditation, as dened by DoD (http://www.dmso.mil/docslib/
mspolicy/glossary/9801glss.doc), is The ofcial certication that a model or
simulation is acceptable for use for a specic purpose.

8.2.1 Reasons for Neglect

Despite their importance, seldom is adequate attention given to verication
and validation when doing simulation. The primary reasons for neglecting this
FIGURE 8.1

System

Two-step translation
process to convert a
real-world system to
a simulation model.
Concept

Va

Ve
r

a
lid

ific

tio

at

io

n
Model

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important activity are

Time and budget pressures.

Laziness.
Overcondence.
Ignorance.

Time and budget pressures can be overcome through better planning and increased prociency in the validation process. Because validation doesnt have to
be performed to complete a simulation study, it is the activity that is most likely to
get shortchanged when pressure is being felt to complete the project on time or
within budget. Not only does the modeler become pressed for time and resources,
but often others on whom the modeler relies for feedback on model validity also
become too busy to get involved the way they should.
Laziness is a bit more difcult to deal with because it is characteristic of
human nature and is not easily overcome. Discipline and patience must be developed before one is willing to painstakingly go back over a model once it has been
built and is running. Model building is a creative activity that can actually be quite
fun. Model verication and validation, on the other hand, are a laborious effort
that is too often dreaded.
The problem of overcondence can be dealt with only by developing a more
critical and even skeptical attitude toward ones own work. Too often it is
assumed that if the simulation runs, it must be okay. A surprising number of decisions are based on invalid simulations simply because the model runs and produces results. Computer output can give an aura of validity to results that may be
completely in error. This false sense of security in computer output is a bit like
saying, It must be true, it came out of the computer. Having such a naive mentality can be dangerously misleading.
The nal problem is simply a lack of knowledge of verication and validation procedures. This is a common problem particularly among newcomers to
simulation. This seems to be one of the last areas in which formal training is received because it is presumed to be nonessential to model building and output
analysis. Another misconception of validation is that it is just another phase in a
simulation project rather than a continuous activity that should be performed
throughout the entire project. The intent of this chapter is to dispel common misconceptions, help shake attitudes of indifference, and provide insight into this important activity.

8.2.2 Practices That Facilitate Verication and Validation

A major problem in verifying and validating models occurs because of poor modeling practices. Beginners often build models with little or no thought about being
able to verify or validate the model. Often these models contain spaghetti code
that is difcult for anyone, including the modeler, to follow. This problem becomes even more acute as models grow in complexity. When the original model
builder moves on and others inherit these models, the desperate efforts to unravel

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the tangled mess and gure out what the model creator had in mind become
almost futile. It is especially discouraging when attempting to use a poorly constructed model for future experimentation. Trying to gure out what changes need
to be made to model new scenarios becomes difcult if not impossible.
The solution to creating models that ease the difculty of verication and validation is to rst reduce the amount of complexity of the model. Frequently the
most complex models are built by amateurs who do not have sense enough to
know how to abstract system information. They code way too much detail into the
model. Once a model has been simplied as much as possible, it needs to be coded
so it is easily readable and understandable. Using object-oriented techniques such
as encapsulation can help organize model data. The right simulation software can
also help keep model data organized and readable by providing table entries and
intelligent, parameterized constructs rather than requiring lots of low-level programming. Finally, model data and logic code should be thoroughly and clearly
documented. This means that every subroutine used should have an explanation
of what it does, where it is invoked, what the parameters represent, and how to
change the subroutine for modications that may be anticipated.

8.3 Model Verication

Verication is the process of determining whether the model operates as intended.
It doesnt necessarily mean that the model is valid, only that it runs correctly.
According to Banks, et al. (2001), Verication is concerned with building the
model right. It is utilized in the comparison of the conceptual model to the computer representation that implements that conception. Model verication involves the modeler more than the customer. During the verication process, the
modeler tries to detect unintended errors in the model data and logic and remove
them. In essence, verication is the process of debugging the model. A veried
model is a bug-free model.
Errors or bugs in a simulation model are of two types: syntax errors and semantic errors. Syntax errors are like grammatical errors and include the unintentional addition, omission, or misplacement of notation that either prevents the
model from running or causes it to run incorrectly. The omission or misplacement
of a decimal point in a number or parentheses in an expression can dramatically
impact the outcome of a simulation. Most simulation software has built-in error
detection that can identify inconsistencies and omissions. This feature is much
like spelling and grammar checking in a word processor. As with a word processor, however, it still remains the responsibility of the user to ensure that the intended meaning has been conveyed.
Semantic errors are associated with the meaning or intention of the modeler
and are therefore difcult to detect. Often they are logical errors that cause behavior that is different than what was intended. For example, an ifthen test on a variable may branch to the wrong logic simply because the condition was incorrectly
specied or the branching was not set up correctly. Or numerical values may

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be misentered and therefore result in the wrong intended behavior. Verication

techniques discussed here, such as event tracing and code debugging, can help
identify and correct semantic errors.

8.3.1 Preventive Measures

Obviously, the preferred method of dealing with model bugs is to avoid building
models with bugs in the rst place. In practice, this isnt always possible as bugs
are often sneaky and difcult to prevent. However, a few basic practices can minimize the number of bugs that nd their way into models. The most important
practice is to simply be careful. This means focusing on what you are doing and
eliminating distractions that may cause you to make silly typing mistakes. You
should check and double-check the data and your entry of those data into the
model to make sure there are no transcription errors. Another practice that has
been used successfully for years in software development for ensuring good code
is called structured programming. Hoover and Perry (1990) describe ve basic
principles of structured programming:
1. Top-down design. The simulation model and the code begin at a high
level, and then lower-level areas are added that are congruent with, yet
subordinate to, the top level. It is a hierarchical approach to modeling.
A routing to a six-machine cell may initially be dened to the cell as
a whole and then later decomposed to route to each individual
workstation.
2. Modularity. The model is built in modules or logical divisions to
simplify model development and debugging and to facilitate reuse.
Where possible, data modules should be separate from the logic
modules so that data can be easily accessed.
3. Compact modules. Modules should be kept as short and simple as
possible. Subroutines consisting of over 25 statements, for example,
should probably be broken into multiple subroutines.
4. Stepwise renement. The model is built with complexity being
progressively added. In stepwise renement, one goes from general to
specic so that generalities and assumptions are rened into precise
and accurate details. The idea is to create the model in multiple passes,
lling in additional details with each pass. At each pass, a test for
reasonableness can be made. It is easier to verify a model when the
model is built incrementally than when it is built all at once.
5. Structured control. GOTO statements or other unstructured branching
of control should be avoided wherever possible as they may lead to
unexpected results. Logic control should be based on structured control
statements such as
IF-THEN-ELSE
WHILE...DO
DO...WHILE
(etc.)

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8.3.2 Establishing a Standard for Comparison

Verifying a model presupposes that some standard exists for comparison, providing a sense of whether the model is running correctly. Obviously, if you knew
exactly how the simulation should run and what results should be expected, you
wouldnt need to be doing the simulation in the rst place. Several reasonable
standards can be used for model comparison. One simple standard is common
sense (although someone has said that common sense isnt all that common). If
your simulation is giving totally bizarre results, you know you have a problem
somewhere in your model. Say, for example, that you dene a machine downtime
to occur every two hours for two minutes and yet the simulation results show that
the machine was down 80 percent of the time. Common sense tells you that the results dont make sense and indicates that you should check how you dened the
downtime behavior.
Another way to establish a sense of correctness is to construct an analytic
model of the problem if at all possible. Because of the simplied assumptions
made in most analytic techniques, it may be necessary to scale back the model to
verify only its basic operation. It may be necessary, for example, to run the simulation without downtimes because failures may complicate an analytic formulation. As additional examples, we may operate a queuing system without balking,
or we may use instantaneous replenishment rather than random lead times in an
inventory model. In these cases, the simplied model may be one that can be analyzed without simulation, and the mathematical results can then be compared to
those from the simulation. In this way we can get an indication of whether the
simulation model, or at least a simplied version of it, is correct.

8.3.3 Verication Techniques

Once everything has been done at the outset to ensure that the model has been built
correctly and a standard for comparison has been established, several techniques
can be used to verify the model. Some of the more common ways include

Conduct model code reviews.

Check the output for reasonableness.
Watch the animation for correct behavior.
Use the trace and debug facilities provided with the software.

Reviewing Model Code

A model code review can be conducted by either the modeler or someone else
familiar with both modeling and the system being modeled. The purpose of the
model code review is to check for errors and inconsistencies. The simulation
model can be tested in either a bottom-up or top-down fashion. In the bottom-up
testing method, also called unit testing, the lowest modules are tested and veried
rst. Next, interfaces between two or more modules are tested. This is continued
until the model can be tested as a single system.

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In the top-down approach, the verication testing begins with the main module and moves down gradually to lower modules. At the top level, you are more
interested that the outputs of modules are as expected given the inputs. If discrepancies arise, lower-level code analysis is conducted.
In both approaches sample test data are used to test the program code. The
bottom-up approach typically requires a smaller set of data to begin with. After
exercising the model using test data, the model is stress tested using extreme input
values. With careful selection, the results of the simulation under extreme conditions can be predicted fairly well and compared with the test results.
Checking for Reasonable Output
In any simulation model, there are operational relationships and quantitative values that are predictable during the simulation. An example of an operational relationship is a routing that occurs whenever a particular operation is completed. A
predictable quantitative value might be the number of boxes on a conveyor always
being between zero and the conveyor capacity. Often the software itself will ag
values that are out of an acceptable range, such as an attempt to free more resources than were captured.
For simple models, one way to help determine reasonableness of the output is
to replace random times and probabilistic outcomes with constant times and deterministic outcomes in the model. This allows you to predict precisely what the
results will be because the analytically determined results should match the results of the simulation.
Watching the Animation
Animation can be used to visually verify whether the simulation operates the way
you think it should. Errors are detected visually that can otherwise go unnoticed.
The animation can be made to run slowly enough for the analyst to follow along
visually. However, the amount of time required to observe an entire simulation
run can be extremely long. If the animation is sped up, the runtime will be smaller,
but inconsistent behavior will be more difcult to detect.
To provide the most meaningful information, it helps to have interactive
simulation capability, which allows the modeler to examine data associated with
simulation objects during runtime. For example, during the simulation, the user
can view the current status of a workstation or resource to see if state variables are
being set correctly.
Animation is usually more helpful in identifying a problem than in discovering the cause of a problem. The following are some common symptoms apparent
from the animation that reveal underlying problems in the model:
The simulation runs ne for hours and even days and then suddenly freezes.
A terminating simulation that should have emptied the system at the end
of the simulation leaves some entities stranded at one or more locations.
A resource sits idle when there is plenty of work waiting to be done.
A particular routing never gets executed.

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Using Trace and Debugging Facilities

Trace and debugging information provides detailed textual feedback of what is
happening during a simulation. This allows the modeler to look under the hood
and see exactly what is going on inside the simulation. Most simulation software
comes with some sort of trace and debugging facility. At a minimum, manual
trace or debugging information can be coded into the simulation model that is either deleted or disabled once the model is debugged. The following logic, for example, might be inserted somewhere in the model logic to test whether a resource
is available at a specic time.
If OperatorState = busy
Then display "Operator is busy"
Else display "Operator is NOT busy"

Trace messages describe chronologically what happens during the simulation, event by event. A typical trace message might be the time that an entity
enters a particular location or the time that a specic resource is freed. Trace messaging can be turned on or off, and trace messages can usually be either displayed
directly on the screen or written to a le for later analysis. In ProModel, tracing
can also be turned on and off programmatically by entering a Trace command at
appropriate places within the model logic. A segment of an example of a trace
message listing is shown in Figure 8.2. Notice that the simulation time is shown
in the left column followed by a description of what is happening at that time in
the right column.
Another way in which behavior can be tracked during a simulation run is
through the use of a debugger. Anyone who has used a modern commercial compiler to do programming is familiar with debuggers. A simulation debugger is a
utility that displays and steps through the actual logic entered by the user to dene
the model. As logic gets executed, windows can be opened to display variable and

FIGURE 8.2
Fragment of a trace
listing.

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FIGURE 8.3
ProModel debugger
window.

state values as they dynamically change. Like trace messaging, debugging can be
turned on either interactively or programmatically. An example of a debugger
window is shown in Figure 8.3.
Experienced modelers make extensive use of trace and debugging capabilities. Animation and output reports are good for detecting problems in a simulation, but trace and debug messages help uncover why problems occur.
Using trace and debugging features, event occurrences and state variables
can be examined and compared with hand calculations to see if the program is operating as it should. For example, a trace list might show when a particular operation began and ended. This can be compared against the input operation time to
see if they match.
One type of error that a trace or debugger is useful in diagnosing is gridlock.
This situation is caused when there is a circular dependency where one action depends on another action, which, in turn, is dependent on the rst action. You may
have experienced this situation at a busy trafc intersection or when trying to
leave a crowded parking lot after a football game. It leaves you with a sense of
utter helplessness and frustration. An example of gridlock in simulation sometimes occurs when a resource attempts to move a part from one station to another,
but the second station is unavailable because an entity there is waiting for the
same resource. The usual symptom of this situation is that the model appears to
freeze up and no more activity takes place. Meanwhile the simulation clock races
rapidly forward. A trace of events can help detect why the entity at the second station is stuck waiting for the resource.

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8.4 Model Validation

Validation is the process of determining whether the model is a meaningful and
accurate representation of the real system (Hoover and Perry 1990). Where verication is concerned with building the model right, validation is concerned with
building the right model. For this reason, stakeholders and customers should
become heavily involved in the validation process.
Because the process of validation can be very time-consuming and ultimately
somewhat elusive, we are not interested in achieving absolute validity but only
functional validity. As Neelamkavil (1987) explains, True validation is a philosophical impossibility and all we can do is either invalidate or fail to invalidate.
From a functional standpoint, model validation is viewed as the process of establishing that the models output behavior has sufcient accuracy for the models
intended purpose over the domain of the models intended applicability (Sargent
1998). Through validation we convey to the user or the customer that the simulation results can be trusted and used to make real-world decisions. A model can be
valid even when many simplications may have been made and details omitted
while building the model. What we are seeking is not certainty but rather a comfort level in the results.
For existing systems or when building an as-is model, the model behavior
should correspond to that of the actual system. In the case of a new system that is
being designed, and therefore has no demonstrated performance, the input data
should accurately reect the design specication of the system and the model
should be carefully veried.
A model may run correctly (it has been veried) but still not be an accurate
representation of the system (it is invalid). Validation can be thought of as a reality check (not to be confused with a sanity check, which people who do simulation may frequently need). If a model is based on accurate information, and the
model has been veried to work as intended, then the model can be said to be a
valid model. A model that has bugs cannot be a valid model (unless purely by accident), thus the importance of verication in the validation process.
Validation actually begins with the data-gathering stage of a simulation project before a model is even built. It is the garbage-in, garbage-out syndrome that
should be avoided. If you use erroneous data in the model, the model may work
perfectly ne (it has been veried) yet still give misleading results. Data validation issues were addressed in Chapter 6, Data Collection and Analysis. By way
of review, data validation is a matter of verifying that the sources of information
are reliable and that source data have been correctly interpreted. For example, the
process used to t distributions to sample data may be checked. Any assumptions
should also be reviewed and approved by those in a position to give an informed
opinion about the validity of the assumptions. Having valid information on the
system being modeled means that the conceptual model of the system is valid. At
this point, creating a valid simulation model essentially consists of creating a
model that is veried or, in other words, that corresponds with the conceptual
model.

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8.4.1 Determining Model Validity

There is no simple test to determine the validity of a model. Validation is an inductive process in which the modeler draws conclusions about the accuracy of the
model based on the evidence available. Several techniques are given here that
are described by Sargent (1998). Some of them tend to be rather subjective, while
others lend themselves to statistical tests such as hypothesis tests and condence
intervals. Many of the techniques are the same as those used to verify a model,
only now the customer and others who are knowledgeable about the system need
to be involved. As with model verication, it is common to use a combination of
techniques when validating a model.
Watching the animation. The visual animation of the operational behavior
of the model is compared with ones knowledge about how the actual
system behaves. This can include dynamic plots and counters that provide
dynamic visual feedback.
Comparing with the actual system. Both the model and the system are
run under the same conditions and using the same inputs to see if the
results match.
Comparing with other models. If other valid models have been built of
the process such as analytic models, spreadsheet models, and even other
valid simulation models, the output of the simulation can be compared to
these known results. For example, a simple simulation model might be
compared to a validated queuing model.
Conducting degeneracy and extreme condition tests. There are known
situations for which model behavior degenerates, causing a particular
response variable to grow innitely large. An example is the number of
items in a queue prior to a server where the service rate is less than the
arrival rate. These situations can be forced in the model (by increasing the
number of arrivals) to see if the model degenerates as expected. The
model can also be run under extreme conditions to see if it behaves as
would be expected. For example, if arrivals are cut off, the model should
eventually run dry of entities.
Checking for face validity. Face validity is checked by asking people who
are knowledgeable about the system whether the model and its behavior
appear reasonable. This technique can be used in determining if the logic
in the conceptual model is correct and if a models inputoutput
relationships are reasonable.
Testing against historical data. If historical information exists for both
operating and performance data, the model can be tested using the same
operating data and comparing the results with the historical performance
data. This is sort of an as-once-was model.
Performing sensitivity analysis. This technique consists of changing
model input values to determine the effect on the models behavior and its
output. The same relationships should occur in the model as in the real

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system. The modeler should have at least an intuitive idea of how the
model will react to a given change. It should be obvious, for example, that
doubling the number of resources for a bottleneck operation should
increase, though not necessarily double, throughput.
Running traces. An entity or sequence of events can be traced through the
model processing logic to see if it follows the behavior that would occur
in the actual system.
Conducting Turing tests. People who are knowledgeable about the
operations of a system are asked if they can discriminate between system
and model outputs. If they are unable to detect which outputs are the
model outputs and which are the actual system outputs, this is another
piece of evidence to use in favor of the model being valid.
A common method of validating a model of an existing system is to compare
the model performance with that of the actual system. This approach requires that
an as-is simulation be built that corresponds to the current system. This helps
calibrate the model so that it can be used for simulating variations of the same
model. After running the as-is simulation, the performance data are compared to
those of the real-world system. If sufcient data are available on a performance
measure of the real system, a statistical test can be applied called the Students
t test to determine whether the sampled data sets from both the model and the
actual system come from the same distribution. An F test can be performed to test
the equality of variances of the real system and the simulation model. Some of the
problems associated with statistical comparisons include these:
Simulation model performance is based on very long periods of time. On
the other hand, real system performances are often based on much shorter
periods and therefore may not be representative of the long-term
statistical average.
The initial conditions of the real system are usually unknown and are
therefore difcult to replicate in the model.
The performance of the real system is affected by many factors that may
be excluded from the simulation model, such as abnormal downtimes or
defective materials.
The problem of validation becomes more challenging when the real system
doesnt exist yet. In this case, the simulation analyst works with one or more
experts who have a good understanding of how the real system should operate.
They team up to see whether the simulation model behaves reasonably in a variety of situations. Animation is frequently used to watch the behavior of the simulation and spot any nonsensical or unrealistic behavior.
The purpose of validation is to mitigate the risk associated with making decisions based on the model. As in any testing effort, there is an optimum amount
of validation beyond which the return may be less valuable than the investment
(see Figure 8.4). The optimum effort to expend on validation should be based on
minimizing the total cost of the validation effort plus the risk cost associated

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215

Model Verication and Validation

Optimum effort
Total cost
Validation cost
Cost

Optimum level of
validation looks at the
trade-off between
validation cost and
risk cost.

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Risk cost
Validation effort

with making a decision based on an invalid model. As mentioned previously, the

problem is seldom one of devoting too much time to validation, but in devoting
too little.

8.4.2 Maintaining Validation

Once a model is validated for a given system specication, it is sometimes necessary to maintain validation as system specications tend to evolve right up to, and
often even after, system implementation. When simulation is used for system
design, rarely is the system implemented the way it was originally simulated,
especially when traditional, over-the-wall handoff procedures are used. These
continuous changes make it nearly impossible to validate the simulation against
the nal implemented system. Unfortunately, results of the implemented system
sometimes get compared with the early simulation model, and the simulation is
unfairly branded as being invalid. This is another good reason for continuing to
update the model to continually reect current system design specications.
One method that works effectively for maintaining validation of a model
designed for ongoing use is to deny users access to the model data so that modications to the model are controlled. ProModel, for example, allows a modeler to
protect the model data using the packaging option under the File menu. This prevents anyone from changing the actual model data directly. Modications to the
model can be made only through a custom interface that controls precisely what
parameters of the model can be changed as well as the extent to which they can
be changed.

8.4.3 Validation Examples

To illustrate how the validation process might be performed for a typical simulation, we look at two simulation case studies. The rst one was conducted
at St. John Hospital and Medical Center for an obstetrical renovation project
(OConner 1994). The second project was conducted at HP for a surface mount
assembly line (Baxter and Johnson 1993). The St. John case study uses a more

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informal and intuitive approach to validation, while the HP case study relies on
more formal validation techniques.
St. John Hospital and Medical Center Obstetrical Unit
At St. John Hospital and Medical Center, a simulation study was conducted by the
Management Engineering Department to plan a renovation of the obstetrical unit
to accommodate modern family demands to provide a more private, homelike
atmosphere with a family-oriented approach to patient care during a mothers
hospital stay. The current layout did not support this approach and had encountered inefciencies when trying to accommodate such an approach (running newborns back and forth and the like).
The renovation project included provision for labor, delivery, recovery, and
postpartum (LDRP) rooms with babies remaining with their mothers during the
postpartum stay. The new LDRPs would be used for both low- and high-risk
mothers. The hospital administration wanted to ensure that there would be enough
room for future growth while still maintaining high utilization of every bed.
The purpose of the simulation was to determine the appropriate number of
beds needed in the new LDRPs as well as in other related areas of the hospital.
A secondary objective was to determine what rules should be used to process patients through the new system to make the best utilization of resources. Because
this was a radically new conguration, an as-is model was not built. This, of
course, made model validation more challenging. Data were gathered based on
actual operating records, and several assumptions were made such as the length of
stay for different patient classications and the treatment sequence of patients.
The validation process was actually a responsibility given to a team that was
assembled to work with the simulation group. The team consisted of the nursing
managers responsible for each OB area and the Womens Health program director. The rst phase of the review phase was to receive team approval for the
assumptions document and owcharts of the processes. This review was completed prior to developing the model. This assumptions document was continually
revised and reviewed throughout the duration of the project.
The next phase of the review came after all data had been collected and analyzed. These reviews not only helped ensure the data were valid but established
trust and cooperation between the modeling group and the review team. This
began instilling condence in the simulation even before the results were
obtained.
Model verication was performed during model building and again at model
completion. To help verify the model, patients, modeled as entities, were traced
through the system to ensure that they followed the same processing sequence
shown on the owcharts with the correct percentages of patients following each
probabilistic branch. In addition, time displays were placed in the model to verify
the length of stay at each step in the process.
Model validation was performed with both the nursing staff and physician
representatives. This included comparing actual data collected with model results
where comparisons made sense (remember, this was a new conguration being

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modeled). The animation that showed the actual movement of patients and use of
resources was a valuable tool to use during the validation process and increased
the credibility of the model.
The use of a team approach throughout the data-gathering and model
development stages proved invaluable. It both gave the modeler immediate feedback regarding incorrect assumptions and boosted the condence of the team
members in the simulation results. The frequent reviews also allowed the group to
bounce ideas off one another. As the result of conducting a sound and convincing
simulation study, the hospitals administration was persuaded by the simulation
results and implemented the recommendations in the new construction.
HP Surface Mount Assembly Line
At HP a simulation study was undertaken to evaluate alternative production layouts and batching methods for a surface mount printed circuit assembly line based
on a projected growth in product volume/mix. As is typical in a simulation project, only about 20 percent of the time was spent building the model. The bulk of
the time was spent gathering data and validating the model. It was recognized that
the level of condence placed in the simulation results was dependent on the
degree to which model validity could be established.
Surface mount printed circuit board assembly involves placing electronic
components onto raw printed circuit boards. The process begins with solder paste
being stenciled onto the raw circuit board panel. Then the panel is transported to
sequential pick-and-place machines, where the components are placed on the
panel. The component feeders on the pick-and-place machines must be changed
depending on the components required for a particular board. This adds setup time
to the process. A third of the boards require manual placement of certain components. Once all components are placed on the board and solder pasted, the board
proceeds into an oven where the solder paste is cured, bonding the components to
the panel. Finally, the panel is cleaned and sent to testing. Inspection steps occur
at several places in the line.
The HP surface mount line was designed for a high-mix, low-volume production. More than 100 different board types are produced on the line with about 10
different types produced per day. The batch size for a product is typically less than
ve panels, with the typical panel containing ve boards.
A simulation expert built the model working closely with the process
ownersthat is, the managers, engineers, and production workers. Like many
simulations, the model was rst built as an as-is model to facilitate model validation. The model was then expanded to reect projected requirements and proposed congurations.
The validation process began early in the data-gathering phase with meetings
being held with the process owners to agree on objectives, review the assumptions, and determine data requirements. Early involvement of the process owners
gave them motivation to see that the project was successful. The rst step was to
clarify the objectives of the simulation that would guide the data-gathering and
modeling efforts. Next a rough model framework was developed, and the initial

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assumptions were dened based on process information gathered from the

process owners. As the model development progressed, further assumptions were
made, and decisions were made and agreed upon regarding the level of detail required to capture the essence of the process.
The ow logic and move times were built into the model, but processing and
setup times, since they were so varied and numerous, were put into a common
lookup table so they could be veried and modied easily. The particular board
sequence and batch size were also dened for the model.
The next step was to verify the model to ensure that it operated as intended.
The simulation output was reviewed for reasonableness and a trace was used to
check the model logic where it was complex. In reality, much of this verication
was performed as the model was built because it was necessary for getting the
model just to run. Note that the modeler was the one primarily responsible for verifying or debugging the model. This makes sense inasmuch as the modeler had a
clear specication and was the one responsible for fashioning the model to t the
specication.
After the modeler was satised that the model was running correctly, all of
the assumptions were reviewed again by the production operators, supervisors,
and engineers. These assumptions were more meaningful as they were able to
watch their impact on the simulation performance. Animation was used to communicate model behavior and demonstrate the scope of the model. Those who
were familiar with the operation of the real line were able to conrm whether the
model appeared to be working reasonably correctly. When explaining how the
model was built, it was important to describe the modeling constructs using
familiar terminology because the process owners were not versed in modeling
terminology.
At this point it would be easy to conclude that the model was valid and ready
for use in conducting experiments. The challenging question with the model became Is it the right model? A simulation model is viewed much more critically
once it is running and it is realized that important decisions will soon be based on
the results of the simulation experiments. With the model running correctly and
providing output that was consistent with the assumptions that were made, it was
felt that the assumptions should be challenged more critically. Because the initial
data that were gatheredthat is, processing times and setup timeswere based
on average times with no reection of variability, decisions had to be made about
how much more data should be gathered or what modications in assumptions
needed to be made before there was sufcient condence in the model. Component placement times were studied using classical time-study techniques to
achieve more realistic time estimates. Next the average placement times were
used to calculate the average run time for a particular panel, and these were compared to the recorded run times.
Historical data and further time studies were used to validate the output.
A particular sequence of panels was studied as it was processed, recording the
batch size, the start time, the nish time, and some intermediate times. The model
was then run using this exact same scenario, and the output was compared with the

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output of the real process. The initial model predicted 25 shifts to complete a specic sequence of panels, while the process actually took 35 shifts. This led to
further process investigations of interruptions or other processing delays that
werent being accounted for in the model. It was discovered that feeder replacement times were underestimated in the model. A discrepancy between the model
and the actual system was also discovered in the utilization of the pick-and-place
machines. After tracking down the causes of these discrepancies and making
appropriate adjustments to the model, the simulation results were closer to the real
process. The challenge at this stage was not to yield to the temptation of making
arbitrary changes to the model just to get the desired results. Then the model would
lose its integrity and become nothing more than a sham for the real system.
The nal step was to conduct sensitivity analysis to determine how model
performance was affected in response to changes in model assumptions. By
changing the input in such a way that the impact was somewhat predictable, the
change in simulation results could be compared with intuitive guesses. Any
bizarre results such as a decrease in work in process when increasing the arrival
rate would raise an immediate ag. Input parameters were systematically changed
based on a knowledge of both the process behavior and the model operation.
Knowing just how to stress the model in the right places to test its robustness was
an art in itself. After everyone was satised that the model accurately reected the
actual operation and that it seemed to respond as would be expected to specic
changes in input, the model was ready for experimental use.

8.5 Summary
For a simulation model to be of greatest value, it must be an accurate representation of the system being modeled. Verication and validation are two activities
that should be performed with simulation models to establish their credibility.
Model verication is basically the process of debugging the model to ensure
that it accurately represents the conceptual model and that the simulation runs correctly. Verication involves mainly the modeler without the need for much input
from the customer. Verication is not an exact science, although several proven
techniques can be used.
Validating a model begins at the data-gathering stage and may not end until
the system is nally implemented and the actual system can be compared to the
model. Validation involves the customer and other stakeholders who are in a
position to provide informed feedback on whether the model accurately reects
the real system. Absolute validation is philosophically impossible, although a
high degree of face or functional validity can be established.
While formal methods may not always be used to validate a model, at least
some time devoted to careful review should be given. The secret to validation is
not so much the technique as it is the attitude. One should be as skeptical as can
be toleratedchallenging every input and questioning every output. In the end,
the decision maker should be condent in the simulation results, not because he or

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she trusts the software or the modeler, but because he or she trusts the input data
and knows how the model was built.

8.6 Review Questions

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.

What is the difference between model verication and model validation?

Why are verication and validation so important in a simulation study?
Why are these steps often ignored or given only little attention?
How can one prevent syntax and semantic errors from creeping into a
simulation model?
How does one establish a standard for verifying a model?
What techniques are used to verify a model?
Why is it philosophically impossible to prove model validity?
What is functional validity?
What techniques are used to validate a model?
Why is it useful to build an as-is model if a change to an existing
system is being evaluated?
What specic things were done in the St. John Hospital simulation
study to validate the model?
What specic steps were taken in the HP simulation study to validate
the model?

References
Balci, Osman. Verication, Validation and Accreditation of Simulation Models. In Proceedings of the 1997 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. S. Andradottir, K. J. Healy,
D. H. Withers, and B. L. Nelson, 1997, pp. 13541.
Banks, Jerry. Simulation Evolution. IIE Solutions, November 1998, pp. 2629.
Banks, Jerry, John Carson, Barry Nelson, and David Nicol. Discrete-Event Simulation, 3rd
ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1995.
Baxter, Lori K., and Johnson, Eric. Dont Implement before You Validate. Industrial
Engineering, February 1993, pp. 6062.
Hoover, Stewart, and Ronald Perry. Simulation: A Problem Solving Approach. Reading,
MA: Addison-Wesley, 1990.
Neelamkavil, F. Computer Simulation and Modeling. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1987.
OConner, Kathleen. The Use of a Computer Simulation Model to Plan an Obstetrical
Renovation Project. The Fifth Annual PROMODEL Users Conference, Park City,
UT, 1994.
Sargent, Robert G. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models. In Proceedings of the
1998 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. D. J. Medeiros, E. F. Watson, J. S. Carson,
and M. S. Manivannan, 1998, pp. 12130.

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SIMULATION OUTPUT
ANALYSIS

Nothing is more terrible than activity without insight.

Thomas Carlyle

9.1 Introduction
In analyzing the output from a simulation model, there is room for both rough
analysis using judgmental procedures as well as statistically based procedures for
more detailed analysis. The appropriateness of using judgmental procedures or
statistically based procedures to analyze a simulations output depends largely on
the nature of the problem, the importance of the decision, and the validity of the
input data. If you are doing a go/no-go type of analysis in which you are trying to
nd out whether a system is capable of meeting a minimum performance level,
then a simple judgmental approach may be adequate. Finding out whether a single machine or a single service agent is adequate to handle a given workload may
be easily determined by a few runs unless it looks like a close call. Even if it is a
close call, if the decision is not that important (perhaps there is a backup worker
who can easily ll in during peak periods), then more detailed analysis may not be
needed. In cases where the model relies heavily on assumptions, it is of little value
to be extremely precise in estimating model performance. It does little good to get
six decimal places of precision for an output response if the input data warrant
only precision to the nearest tens. Suppose, for example, that the arrival rate of
customers to a bank is roughly estimated to be 30 plus or minus 10 per hour. In
this situation, it is probably meaningless to try to obtain a precise estimate of teller
utilization in the facility. The precision of the input data simply doesnt warrant
any more than a rough estimate for the output.
These examples of rough estimates are in no way intended to minimize the
importance of conducting statistically responsible experiments, but rather to emphasize the fact that the average analyst or manager can gainfully use simulation
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without having to be a professional statistician. Anyone who understands the

cause-and-effect relationships of a system will be able to draw meaningful
conclusions about it that will help in design and management decisions. Where
precision is important and warranted, however, a statistical background or at least
consulting with a statistical advisor will help avoid drawing invalid inferences
from simulation.
In this chapter, we present basic statistical issues related to the analysis and
interpretation of simulation output. The intent is not to make you an expert statistician, but to give you sound guidelines to follow when dealing with the output
generated by simulation models. For more comprehensive coverage of statistical
methods, see Hines and Montgomery (1990).

9.2 Statistical Analysis of Simulation Output

Because random input variables (such as activity times) are used to drive the
model, the output measures of the simulation (throughput rate, average waiting
times) are also going to be random. This means that performance metrics based on
a models output are only estimates and not precise measures. Suppose, for
example, we are interested in determining the throughput for a model of a manufacturing system (like the number of widgets produced per hour). Suppose further
that the model has a number of random input variables such as machining times,
time between machine failures, and repair times. Running the simulation once
provides a single random sample of the models uctuating throughput that may
or may not be representative of the expected or average model throughput. This
would be like rolling a die, getting a 1, and concluding that the expected average
value of the die is 1 instead of the true average of 3.5.
Statistical analysis of simulation output is based on inferential or descriptive
statistics. In descriptive statistics, we deal with a population, samples from the
population, and a sample size. The population is the entire set of items or outcomes (such as all possible values that can be obtained when rolling a die). A sample would be one unbiased observation or instance of the population (a single roll
of a die). The sample size is the number of samples we are working with (a particular number of rolls of a die). The collected samples are independent (each roll
of the die is unaffected by previous rolls of the die). The idea behind inferential
statistics is to gather a large enough sample size to draw valid inferences about
the population (such as the average value of the die) while keeping the samplegathering time and cost at a minimum. In some instances, collecting samples can
be very time-consuming and costly.
The same statistical concepts apply to conducting an experiment with a simulation model of a system that apply to sampling from a population such as rolls of
a die or a group of people:
Samples are generated by running the experiment.
The population size is often very large or innite (there are an innite
number of possible outcomes from the experiment).

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A random variable is used to express each possible outcome of an

experiment as a continuous or discrete number.
Experimental samples, called replications, are independent.
Multiple independent runs or replications of a simulation provide multiple observations that can be used to estimate the expected value of the models output response (like rolling the die multiple times before estimating an expected or mean
value). With random simulation output results, we cant determine for certain
what the true expected output will be from the model unless in some cases we run
an innite number of replications, which is not possible or even desirable.

9.2.1 Simulation Replications

In conducting a simulation experiment, one run of the simulation constitutes one
replication of the experiment. The outcome of a replication represents a single
sample. To obtain a sample size n, we need to run n independent replications of
the experiment. A representative sample size will be a good indicator of what can
be expected to happen for any subsequent replication. Not every replication will
produce exactly the same behavior due to random variability. To understand how
independent replications are produced in simulation, it is essential to understand
the concepts of random number generation and initial seed values. These subjects
were elaborated on in Chapter 3 but will be reviewed here.
Random Number Generation
At the heart of a stochastic simulation is the random number generator. The random
number generator produces a cycling sequence of pseudo-random numbers that are
used to generate observations from various distributions (normal, exponential, or
others) that drive the stochastic processes represented in the simulation model such
as activity times, machine failure times, and travel times. As pseudo-random numbers, the random number sequence, or stream, can be repeated if desired. After the
random number generator sequences through all random numbers in its cycle, the
cycle starts over again through the same sequence (see Figure 9.1). The length of
the cycle before it repeats is called the cycle period, which is usually extremely
long (the cycle length for the random number generator used in ProModel is over
2.1 billion).
Initial Seed Values
The random number generator requires an initial seed value before it can begin
producing random numbers. Each random number produced by the generator is
fed back to the generator to produce the next random number, and so on. Where
the sequence begins in the cycle depends on the initial seed value given to the
generator. In Figure 9.1, the seed value of Z 0 = 17 marks the beginning of this
sequence of numbers.
You might wonder how replications are produced if the exact same sequence
of random numbers drives the simulation. Obviously, identical random number
sequences produce identical results. This may prove useful for repeating an exact

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FIGURE 9.1
Example of a cycling
pseudo-random
number stream
produced by a random
number generator
with a very short
cycle length.

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.52
.80

.31

Random number

.07

.95

generator

Seed Z0
17

.60

.25
.66

experiment but does not give us an independent replication. On the other hand, if a
different seed value is appropriately selected to initialize the random number generator, the simulation will produce different results because it will be driven by a
different segment of numbers from the random number stream. This is how the simulation experiment is replicated to collect statistically independent observations of
the simulation models output response. Recall that the random number generator
in ProModel can produce over 2.1 billion different values before it cycles.
To replicate a simulation experiment, then, the simulation model is initialized
to its starting conditions, all statistical variables for the output measures are reset,
and a new seed value is appropriately selected to start the random number generator. Each time an appropriate seed value is used to start the random number generator, the simulation produces a unique output response. Repeating the process
with several appropriate seed values produces a set of statistically independent
observations of a models output response. With most simulation software, users
need only specify how many times they wish to replicate the experiment; the software handles the details of initializing variables and ensuring that each simulation
run is driven by nonoverlapping segments of the random number cycle.

9.2.2 Performance Estimation

Assuming we have an adequate collection of independent observations, we can
apply statistical methods to estimate the expected or mean value of the models
output response. There are two types of estimates: (1) point estimates (mean and
standard deviation, for example) and (2) interval estimates (also called condence
intervals). This is not to say that mean and standard deviation are the only parameter estimates in which we may be interested. For example, we may compute
point estimates for parameters such as the proportion of time a queue had more
than 10 entities waiting in it or the maximum number of entities to simultaneously
wait in a queue location. Most simulation software automatically calculates these
and other estimates for you; however, it is useful to know the basic procedures
used to better understand their meaning.

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Simulation Output Analysis

Point Estimates
A point estimate is a single value estimate of a parameter of interest. Point estimates are calculated for the mean and standard deviation of the population. To
estimate the mean of the population (denoted as ), we simply calculate the aver
age of the sample values (denoted as x):

n
xi
x = i=1
n
where n is the sample size (number of observations) and xi is the value of ith
observation. The sample mean x estimates the population mean .
The standard deviation for the population (denoted as ), which is a measure
of the spread of data values in the population, is similarly estimated by calculating a standard deviation of the sample of values (denoted as s):


n
2
i=1 [x i x]
s=
n1
The sample variance s2, used to estimate the variance of the population 2, is obtained by squaring the sample standard deviation.
Lets suppose, for example, that we are interested in determining the mean or
average number of customers getting a haircut at Buddys Style Shop on Saturday
morning. Buddy opens his barbershop at 8:00 A.M. and closes at noon on Saturday. In
order to determine the exact value for the true average number of customers getting
a haircut on Saturday morning (), we would have to compute the average based on
the number of haircuts given on all Saturday mornings that Buddys Style Shop has
been and will be open (that is, the complete population of observations). Not wanting to work that hard, we decide to get an estimate of the true mean by spending the
next 12 Saturday mornings watching TV at Buddys and recording the number of
customers that get a haircut between 8:00 A.M. and 12:00 noon (Table 9.1).
TABLE 9.1 Number of Haircuts Given on 12 Saturdays
Replication (i)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Sample mean x
Sample standard deviation s

Number of Haircuts (xi)

21
16
8
11
17
16
6
14
15
16
14
10
13.67
4.21

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We have replicated the experiment 12 times and have 12 sample observations of the number of customers getting haircuts on Saturday morning
(x1 , x2 , . . . , x12 ). Note that there are many different values for the random variable
(number of haircuts) in the sample of 12 observations. So if only one replication
had been conducted and the single observation was used to estimate the true but
unknown mean number of haircuts given, the estimate could potentially be way
off. Using the observations in Table 9.1, we calculate the sample mean as follows:

12
xi
21 + 16 + 8 + + 10
= 13.67 haircuts
x = i=1 =
12
12
The sample mean of 13.67 haircuts estimates the unknown true mean value
for the number of haircuts given on Saturday at the barbershop. Taking additional
samples generally gives a more accurate estimate of the unknown . However, the
experiment would need to be replicated on each Saturday that Buddys has been
and will be open to determine the true mean or expected number of haircuts given.
In addition to estimating the population mean, we can also calculate an
estimate for the population standard deviation based on the sample size of 12
observations and a sample mean of 13.67 haircuts. This is done by calculating the
standard deviation s of the observations in Table 9.1 as follows:


12
2
i=1 [x i 13.67]
s=
= 4.21 haircuts
12 1
The sample standard deviation s provides only an estimate of the true but
unknown population standard deviation . x and s are single values; thus they are
referred to as point estimators of the population parameters and . Also, note
that x and s are random variables. As such, they will have different values if based
on another set of 12 independent observations from the barbershop.
Interval Estimates
A point estimate, by itself, gives little information about how accurately it estimates the true value of the unknown parameter. Interval estimates constructed
using x and s, on the other hand, provide information about how far off the point
estimate x might be from the true mean . The method used to determine this is
referred to as condence interval estimation.
A condence interval is a range within which we can have a certain level
and the
of condence that the true mean falls. The interval is symmetric about x,
distance that each endpoint is from x is called the half-width (hw). A condence
interval, then, is expressed as the probability P that the unknown true mean lies
within the interval x hw. The probability P is called the condence level.
If the sample observations used to compute x and s are independent and normally distributed, the following equation can be used to calculate the half-width
of a condence interval for a given level of condence:
hw =

(tn1,/2 )s

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where tn1,/2 is a factor that can be obtained from the Students t table in Appendix B. The values are identied in the Students t table according to the value
of /2 and the degrees of freedom (n 1). The term is the complement of P.
That is, = 1 P and is referred to as the signicance level. The signicance
level may be thought of as the risk level or probability that will fall outside
the condence interval. Therefore, the probability that will fall within the
condence interval is 1 . Thus condence intervals are often stated as
P(x hw x + hw) = 1 and are read as the probability that the true
but unknown mean falls between the interval (x hw) to (x + hw) is equal to
1 . The condence interval is traditionally referred to as a 100(1 ) percent
condence interval.
Assuming the data from the barbershop example are independent and normally distributed (this assumption is discussed in Section 9.3), a 95 percent condence interval is constructed as follows:
Given: P = condence level = 0.95
= signicance level = 1 P = 1 0.95 = 0.05
n = sample size = 12
x = 13.67 haircuts
s = 4.21 haircuts
From the Students t table in Appendix B, we nd tn1,/2 = t11,0.025 = 2.201. The
half-width is computed as follows:
(2.201)4.21
(t11,0.025 )s
=
= 2.67 haircuts

n
12
The lower and upper limits of the 95 percent condence interval are calculated as
follows:
hw =

Lower limit = x hw = 13.67 2.67 = 11.00 haircuts

Upper limit = x + hw = 13.67 + 2.67 = 16.34 haircuts
It can now be asserted with 95 percent condence that the true but unknown
mean falls between 11.00 haircuts and 16.34 haircuts (11.00 haircuts 16.34).
A risk level of 0.05 ( = 0.05) means that if we went through this process for
estimating the number of haircuts given on a Saturday morning 100 times and
computed 100 condence intervals, we would expect 5 of the condence intervals
(5 percent of 100) to exclude the true but unknown mean number of haircuts given
on a Saturday morning.
The width of the interval indicates the accuracy the point estimate. It is
desirable to have a small interval with high condence (usually 90 percent or
greater). The width of the condence interval is affected by the variability in the
output of the system and the number of observations collected (sample size). It
can be seen from the half-width equation that, for a given condence level, the
half-width will shrink if (1) the sample size n is increased or (2) the variability in
the output of the system (standard deviation s) is reduced. Given that we have little control over the variability of the system, we resign ourselves to increasing the
sample size (run more replications) to increase the accuracy of our estimates.

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Actually, when dealing with the output from a simulation model, techniques
can sometimes reduce the variability of the output from the model without changing the expected value of the output. These are called variance reduction techniques and are covered in Chapter 10.

9.2.3 Number of Replications (Sample Size)

Often we are interested in knowing the sample size or number of replications
needed to establish a particular condence interval for a specied amount of absolute error (denoted by e) between the point estimate of the mean x and the unknown true mean . In our barbershop example, suppose we want to estimate the
number of replications n  needed to be able to assert with 95 percent (1 = .95)
condence that the sample mean x we compute is off by at most 2.00 haircuts
(e = 2.00) from the true but unknown mean . In other words, we would like to
reduce the half-width of 2.67 haircuts for the condence interval we previously
computed to 2.00 haircuts.
Note that represents the probability that the difference between x and
will exceed a specied error amount e. In fact, e is equal to the hw of a condence
interval (x e). Setting e = hw and solving for n would give an equation that
could be used to estimate the number of replications necessary to meet a specied
absolute error amount e and signicance level :
hw = e
(tn1,/2 )s
=e

n


(tn1,/2 )s 2
n=
e
However, this cannot be completed because n appears on each side of the equation.
So, to estimate the number of replications needed, we replace tn1,/2 with Z /2 ,
which depends only on . The Z /2 is from the standard normal distribution, and
its value can be found in the last row of the Students t table in Appendix B. Note
that Z /2 = t,/2 , where denotes innity. The revised equation is


(Z /2 )s 2

n =
e
where n  is a rough approximation for the number of replications that will provide
an adequate sample size for meeting the desired absolute error amount e and signicance level .
Before this equation can be used, an initial sample of observations must be collected to compute the sample standard deviation s of the output from the system.
Actually, when using the Z /2 value, an assumption is made that the true standard
deviation for the complete population of observations is known. Of course, is
not known. However, it is reasonable to approximate with the sample standard deviation s to get a rough approximation for the required number of replications.

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Simulation Output Analysis

Going back to the barbershop example, we want to estimate the number of

replications n  needed to be able to assert with 95 percent (1 = .95) condence that the sample mean x we compute is off by at most 2.00 haircuts
(e = 2.00) from the true but unknown mean . Based on the initial sample of 12
observations, we know that s = 4.21 haircuts. We compute n  as follows:
Given: P = condence level = 0.95
= signicance level = 1 P = 1 0.95 = 0.05
e = 2.00
s = 4.21 haircuts
From the last row of the Students t table in Appendix B, we nd Z /2 =
Z 0.025 = t,0.025 = 1.96. Using the previous equation for n  we obtain




(Z 0.025 )s 2
(1.96)4.21 2
n =
=
= 17.02 observations
e
2.00
A fractional number of replications cannot be conducted, so the result is
typically rounded up. Thus n  18 observations. Given that we already have 12
observations, the experiment needs to be replicated an additional 6 (n  n =
18 12 = 6) times to collect the necessary observations. After the additional
6 replications are conducted, the 6 observations are combined with the original
s, and condence interval are computed
12 observations (Table 9.2), and a new x,
using all 18 observations.
TABLE 9.2 Number of Haircuts Given on 18 Saturdays
Replication (i)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Sample mean x
Sample standard deviation s

Number of Haircuts xi
21
16
8
11
17
16
6
14
15
16
14
10
7
9
18
13
16
8
13.06
4.28

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Given: P = condence level = 0.95

= signicance level = 1 P = 1 0.95  0.05
n = sample size = 18
x = 13.06 haircuts
s = 4.28 haircuts
From the Students t table in Appendix B, we nd tn1,/2 = t17,0.025 = 2.11. The
half-width is computed as follows:
hw =

(t17,0.025 )s
(2.11)4.28
= 2.13 haircuts
=

n
18

The lower and upper limits for the new 95 percent condence interval are calculated as follows:
Lower limit = x hw = 13.06 2.13 = 10.93 haircuts
Upper limit = x hw = 13.06 + 2.13 = 15.19 haircuts
It can now be asserted with 95 percent condence that the true but unknown mean
falls between 10.93 haircuts and 15.19 haircuts (10.93 haircuts 15.19).
Note that with the additional observations, the half-width of the condence
interval has indeed decreased. However, the half-width is larger than the absolute
error value planned for (e = 2.0). This is just luck, or bad luck, because the new
half-width could just as easily have been smaller. Why? First, 18 replications was
only a rough estimate of the number of observations needed. Second, the number
of haircuts given on a Saturday morning at the barbershop is a random variable.
Each collection of observations of the random variable will likely differ from pre s, and hw will also differ.
vious collections. Therefore, the values computed for x,
This is the nature of statistics and why we deal only in estimates.
We have been expressing our target amount of error e in our point estimate x
as an absolute value (hw = e). In the barbershop example, we selected an absolute
value of e = 2.00 haircuts as our target value. However, it is sometimes more convenient to work in terms of a relative error (re) value (hw = re||). This allows us
to talk about the percentage error in our point estimate in place of the absolute
error. Percentage error is the relative error multiplied by 100 (that is, 100re percent). To approximate the number of replications needed to obtain a point estimate
x with a certain percentage error, we need only change the denominator of the n 
equation used earlier. The relative error version of the equation becomes

2
(z /2 )s

n =  re 
x
(1+re)
where re denotes the relative error. The re/(1 + re) part of the denominator is an
adjustment needed to realize the desired re value because we use x to estimate
(see Chapter 9 of Law and Kelton 2000 for details). The appeal of this approach
is that we can select a desired percentage error without prior knowledge of the
magnitude of the value of .

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As an example, say that after recording the number of haircuts given at the
barbershop on 12 Saturdays (n = 12 replications of the experiment), we wish to
determine the approximate number of replications needed to estimate the mean
number of haircuts given per day with an error percentage of 17.14 percent and a
condence level of 95 percent. We apply our equation using the sample mean and
sample standard deviation from Table 9.1.
Given: P  condence level  0.95
 signicance level  1 P  1 0.95  0.05
Z /2 = Z 0.025 = 1.96 from Appendix B
re  0.1714
x  13.67
s  4.21

2 
2
(z 0.025 )s
(1.96)4.21

n =  re 
=  0.1714 
= 17.02 observations
x
13.67
(1+re)
(1+0.1714)
Thus n  18 observations. This is the same result computed earlier on page 229
for an absolute error of e = 2.00 haircuts. This occurred because we purposely
selected re = 0.1714 to produce a value of 2.00 for the equations denominator in
order to demonstrate the equivalency of the different methods for approximating
the number of replications needed to achieve a desired level of precision in the
The SimRunner software uses the relative error methodology to
point estimate x.
provide estimates for the number of replications needed to satisfy the specied
level of precision for a given signicance level .
In general, the accuracy of the estimates improves as the number of replications increases. However, after a point, only modest improvements in accuracy
(reductions in the half-width of the condence interval) are made through conducting additional replications of the experiment. Therefore, it is sometimes necessary to compromise on a desired level of accuracy because of the time required
to run a large number of replications of the model.
The ProModel simulation software automatically computes condence intervals. Therefore, there is really no need to estimate the sample size required for a
desired half-width using the method given in this section. Instead, the experiment
could be replicated, say, 10 times, and the half-width of the resulting condence
interval checked. If the desired half-width is not achieved, additional replications
of the experiment are made until it is. The only real advantage of estimating the
number of replications in advance is that it may save time over the trial-and-error
approach of repeatedly checking the half-width and running additional replications until the desired condence interval is achieved.

9.2.4 Real-World Experiments versus

Simulation Experiments
You may have noticed that we have been working with the observations as though
they came from the real barbershop and not from a simulation model of the shop.

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Actually, the observations were generated from a simulation of the shop by

making independent runs (replications) of the model using the method described
in Section 9.2.1. Note, however, that had the observations been collected from the
real barbershop, we would have processed them in the same manner. Experimental results are generally handled in the same manner, regardless of their origin, if
the observations are unbiased, independent, and normally distributed.
Note that very different results could be obtained from the real barbershop if
the simulation model does not accurately mimic the behavior of the real shop. Statistical statements, no matter how precise, derived from the output of a simulation
model provide estimates for the true but unknown population parameters of the
model and not of the real system. Whether or not the model behavior actually corresponds to real-world behavior is a matter of model validity, which was discussed in Chapter 8.

9.3 Statistical Issues with Simulation Output

A single simulation run (replication) represents only a single sample of possible
outcomes (values of a random variable) from the simulation. Averaging the observations from a large number of runs comes closer to the true expected performance
of the model, but it is still only a statistical estimate. Constructing a condence interval is a good idea because it provides a measure of how far off the estimate is
from the models true expected performance. However, the following three statistical assumptions must be met regarding the sample of observations used to construct
the condence interval:
Observations are independent so that no correlation exists between
consecutive observations.
Observations are identically distributed throughout the entire duration of
the process (that is, they are time invariant).
Observations are normally distributed.
Table 9.3 presents a framework for thinking about the output produced from
a series of simulation runs (independent replications) that will aid in the discussion of these three important statistical assumptions. Suppose a system has been

TABLE 9.3 Simulation Output from a Series of Replications

Replication (i)

Within Run Observations yi j

Average xi

1
2
3
4
..
.

y11 , y12 , y13 , y14 , . . . , y1m

y21 , y22 , y23 , y24 , . . . , y2m
y31 , y32 , y33 , y34 , . . . , y3m
y41 , y42 , y43 , y44 , . . . , y4m
..
.

x1
x2
x3
x4
..
.

yn1 , yn2 , yn3 , yn4 , . . . , ynm

xn

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simulated to estimate the mean time that entities wait in queues in that system.
The experiment is replicated several times to collect n independent sample observations, as was done in the barbershop example. As an entity exits the system, the
time that the entity spent waiting in queues is recorded. The waiting time is denoted by yi j in Table 9.3, where the subscript i denotes the replication from which
the observation came and the subscript j denotes the value of the counter used to
count entities as they exit the system. For example, y32 is the waiting time for the
second entity that was processed through the system in the third replication. These
values are recorded during a particular run (replication) of the model and are
listed under the column labeled Within Run Observations in Table 9.3.
Note that the within run observations for a particular replication, say the ith
replication, are not usually independent because of the correlation between
consecutive observations. For example, when the simulation starts and the rst
entity begins processing, there is no waiting time in the queue. Obviously, the
more congested the system becomes at various times throughout the simulation,
the longer entities will wait in queues. If the waiting time observed for one entity
is long, it is highly likely that the waiting time for the next entity observed is
going to be long and vice versa. Observations exhibiting this correlation between
consecutive observations are said to be autocorrelated. Furthermore, the within
run observations for a particular replication are often nonstationary in that they
do not follow an identical distribution throughout the simulation run. Therefore,
they cannot be directly used as observations for statistical methods that require independent and identically distributed observations such as those used in this
chapter.
At this point, it seems that we are a long way from getting a usable set of
observations. However, lets focus our attention on the last column in Table 9.3,
labeled Average, which contains the x1 through xn values. xi denotes the average
waiting time of the entities processed during the ith simulation run (replication)
and is computed as follows:

m
j=1 yi j
xi =
m
where m is the number of entities processed through the system and yi j is the time
that the jth entity processed through the system waited in queues during the ith
replication. Although not as formally stated, you used this equation in the last row
of the ATM spreadsheet simulation of Chapter 3 to compute the average waiting
time of the m = 25 customers (Table 3.2). An xi value for a particular replication
represents only one possible value for the mean time an entity waits in queues,
and it would be risky to make a statement about the true waiting time from a
single observation. However, Table 9.3 contains an xi value for each of the n
independent replications of the simulation. These xi values are statistically
independent if different seed values are used to initialize the random number generator for each replication (as discussed in Section 9.2.1). The xi values are often
identically distributed as well. Therefore, the sample of xi values can be used for
statistical methods requiring independent and identically distributed observations.
Thus we can use the xi values to estimate the true but unknown average time

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entities wait in queues by computing the sample mean as follows:

n
xi
x = i=1
n
You used this equation in Table 3.3 to average the results from the two replications of the ATM spreadsheet simulation of Chapter 3.
The standard deviation of the average time entities wait in queues is estimated by the sample standard deviation and is computed by


n
2
i=1 [x i x]
s=
n1
The third assumption for many standard statistical methods is that the sample
observations (x1 through xn) are normally distributed. For example, the normality
assumption is implied at the point for which a tn1,/2 value from the Students t
distribution is used in computing a condence intervals half-width. The central
limit theorem of statistics provides a basis for making this assumption. If a variable is dened as the sum of several independent and identically distributed
random values, the central limit theorem states that the variable representing the
sum tends to be normally distributed. This is helpful because in computing xi for
a particular replication, the (yi j ) waiting times for the m entities processed in the
ith replication are summed together. However, the yi j observations are autocorrelated and, therefore, not independent. But there are also central limit theorems
for certain types of correlated data that suggest that xi will be approximately normally distributed if the sample size used to compute it (the number of entities
processed through the system, m from Table 9.3) is not too small (Law and Kelton
2000). Therefore, we can compute a condence interval using
x

(tn1,/2 )s

where tn1,/2 is a value from the Students t table in Appendix B for an level of
signicance.
ProModel automatically computes point estimates and condence intervals
using this method. Figure 9.2 presents the output produced from running the
ProModel version of the ATM simulation of Lab Chapter 3 for ve replications.
The column under the Locations section of the output report labeled Average
Minutes per Entry displays the average amount of time that customers waited in
the queue during each of the ve replications. These values correspond to the xi
values in Table 9.3. Note that in addition to the sample mean and standard deviation, ProModel also provides a 95 percent condence interval.
Sometimes the output measure being evaluated is not based on the mean, or
sum, of a collection of random values. For example, the output measure may be
the maximum number of entities that simultaneously wait in a queue. (See the
Maximum Contents column in Figure 9.2.) In such cases, the output measure
may not be normally distributed, and because it is not a sum, the central limit

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Simulation Output Analysis

FIGURE 9.2
Replication technique used on ATM simulation of Lab Chapter 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------General Report
Output from C:\Bowden\2nd Edition\ATM System Ch9.MOD [ATM System]
Date: Nov/26/2002
Time: 04:24:27 PM
------------------------------------------------------------------Scenario
: Normal Run
Replication
: All
Period
: Final Report (1000 hr to 1500 hr Elapsed: 500 hr)
Warmup Time
: 1000
Simulation Time : 1500 hr
------------------------------------------------------------------LOCATIONS
Location Scheduled
Name
Hours Capacity
--------- ----- -------ATM Queue
500
999999
ATM Queue
500
999999
ATM Queue
500
999999
ATM Queue
500
999999
ATM Queue
500
999999
ATM Queue
500
999999
ATM Queue
0
0
ATM Queue
500
999999
ATM Queue
500
999999

Total
Entries
------9903
9866
9977
10006
10187
9987.8
124.654
9833.05
10142.6

Average
Minutes
Per Entry
--------9.457
8.912
11.195
8.697
10.841
9.820
1.134
8.412
11.229

Average
Contents
-------3.122
2.930
3.723
2.900
3.681
3.271
0.402
2.772
3.771

Maximum
Contents
-------26
24
39
26
32
29.4
6.148
21.767
37.032

Current
Contents
-------18
0
4
3
0
5
7.483
-4.290
14.290

% Util
-----0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

(Rep 1)
(Rep 2)
(Rep 3)
(Rep 4)
(Rep 5)
(Average)
(Std. Dev.)
(95% C.I. Low)
(95% C.I. High)

theorem cannot be used to imply that it is normally distributed. Some refuge

may be taken in knowing that the method given in the chapter for constructing a
condence interval does not completely break down when the normality assumption is violated. So if the normality assumption is questionable, use the
condence interval with the knowledge that it is only approximate. However,
you must not violate the independence assumption. This is not an obstacle
because it is easy to get a set of observations that are statistically independent by
replicating the simulation.

9.4 Terminating and Nonterminating Simulations

Determining experimental procedures, such as how many replications and how to
gather statistics, depends on whether we should conduct a terminating or nonterminating simulation. A terminating simulation is conducted when we are interested in the behavior of the system over a particular periodfor example, the
movement of cars on a roadway system during rush hour. A nonterminating simulation is conducted when we are interested in the steady-state behavior of a
systemfor example, the long-term average behavior of a production system that
steadily produces spark plugs for automobile engines. The purpose of this section
is to give guidelines for deciding which is most appropriate for a given analysis,
terminating simulations or nonterminating simulations.

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9.4.1 Terminating Simulations

A terminating simulation is one in which the simulation starts at a dened state or
time and ends when it reaches some other dened state or time. An initial state
might be the number of parts in the system at the beginning of a workday. A terminating state or event might occur when a particular number of parts have been completed. Consider, for example, an aerospace manufacturer that receives an order to
manufacture 200 airplanes of a particular model. The company might be interested
in knowing how long it will take to produce the 200 airplanes. The simulation run
starts with the system empty and is terminated when the 200th plane is completed.
A point in time that would bring a terminating simulation to an end might be the
closing of shop at the end of a business day or the completion of a weekly or
monthly production period. It may be known, for example, that a production schedule for a particular item changes weekly. At the end of each 40-hour cycle, the system is emptied and a new production cycle begins. In this situation, a terminating
simulation would be run in which the simulation run length would be 40 hours.
A common type of terminating system is one that starts empty, runs for a
while, and then empties out again before shutting down. Examples of this type of
system are job shops, department stores, restaurants, banks, hair salons, and post
ofces. All these systems open up for business in the morning with no customers
in the system and with all resources initially idle. At the end of the day the system
gradually closes down. Usually, at a predetermined time, the customer arrival
process is terminated. (The front door is locked to prevent new arrivals.) Service
for all existing customers is completed, and then the system nally shuts down for
the day. Most service systems tend to operate in this fashion and are therefore
modeled as terminating systems.
Terminating simulations are not intended to measure the steady-state behavior of a system, although there may be periods during a terminating simulation
during which the system is in a steady state. In a terminating simulation, average
measures of performance based on the entire duration of the simulation are of little meaning. Because a terminating simulation always contains transient periods
that are part of the analysis, utilization gures, for example, have the most meaning if reported for successive time intervals during the simulation.

9.4.2 Nonterminating Simulations

A nonterminating or steady-state simulation is one in which the steady-state
(long-term average) behavior of the system is being analyzed. A nonterminating
simulation does not mean that the simulation never ends, nor does it mean that the
system being simulated has no eventual termination. It only means that the simulation could theoretically go on indenitely with no statistical change in behavior.
For such systems, a suitable length of time to run the model in order to collect statistics on the steady-state behavior of the system must be determined.
An example of a nonterminating simulation is a model of a manufacturing
operation in which automotive oil lters are produced continually. The operation

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runs two shifts with an hour break during each shift in which everything momentarily stops. Break and third-shift times are excluded from the model because work
always continues exactly as it left off before the break or end of shift. The length
of the simulation is determined by how long it takes to get a representative steadystate reading of the model behavior.
Nonterminating simulations can, and often do, change operating characteristics after a period of time, but usually only after enough time has elapsed to establish a steady-state condition. Take, for example, a production system that runs
10,000 units per week for 5 weeks and then increases to 15,000 units per week for
the next 10 weeks. The system would have two different steady-state periods. Oil
and gas reneries and distribution centers are additional examples of nonterminating systems.
Contrary to what one might think, a steady-state condition is not one in which
the observations are all the same, or even one for which the variation in observations is any less than during a transient condition. It means only that all observations throughout the steady-state period will have approximately the same
distribution. Once in a steady state, if the operating rules change or the rate at
which entities arrive changes, the system reverts again to a transient state until the
system has had time to start reecting the long-term behavior of the new operating circumstances. Nonterminating systems begin with a warm-up (or transient)
state and gradually move to a steady state. Once the initial transient phase has
diminished to the point where the impact of the initial condition on the systems
response is negligible, we consider it to have reached steady state.

9.5 Experimenting with Terminating Simulations

Experiments involving terminating simulations are usually conducted by making
several simulation runs or replications of the period of interest using a different
seed value for each run. This procedure enables statistically independent and unbiased observations to be made on the response variables of interest in the system
(such as the number of customers in the system or the utilization of resources)
over the period simulated. Statistics are also often gathered on performance measures for successive intervals during the period.
For terminating simulations, we are usually interested in nal production
counts and changing patterns of behavior over time (store opening until closing,
for example) rather than the overall, or long-term, average behavior. It would be
absurd, for example, to conclude that because two waitresses are busy an average
of only 40 percent during the day that only one waitress is needed. This average
measure reveals little about the utilization of the waitresses during peak periods.
A more detailed report of how long customers wait for a waitress to serve them
during successive intervals during the workday may reveal that three waitresses
are needed to handle peak periods whereas only one waitress is necessary during
off-peak hours. Therefore, statistics are also often gathered on performance measures for successive intervals during the period.

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For terminating simulations, there are three important questions to answer in

running the experiment:
1. What should be the initial state of the model?
2. What is the terminating event or time?
3. How many replications should be made?

9.5.1 Selecting the Initial Model State

The initial state of the model represents how the system looks (or is initialized)
at the beginning of the simulation. The barbershop example presented in
Section 9.2.2 is a terminating system. The barbershop opens at 8:00 A.M. and
closes around 12:00 noon. The initial state of the shop at 8:00 A.M. is that there are
no customers in the shop and all barbers are idle and reading the newspaper.
Therefore, the initial state of the model at the beginning of the simulation is that
no customers (entities) are in the barbershop (system) and all barbers (resources)
are idle. The system is empty and idle until entities begin to arrive in the system
as described by the logic in the model.
All terminating simulations do not necessarily begin with the system being
empty and idle. For example, to measure the time that it takes for everyone to exit
an arena after a sporting event, the simulation would be initialized with fans in
their seats just before the sporting event ends. Therefore, the initial state of the
model would reect a large number of entities (fans) in the system.

9.5.2 Selecting a Terminating Event

A terminating event is an event that occurs during the simulation that causes the
simulation run to end. This terminating event might occur when a certain time of
day is reached (closing time of an airports newspaper stand) or when certain
conditions are met (the last passenger boards an aircraft). If the termination event
is based on the satisfaction of conditions other than time, then the time that the
simulation will end is not known in advance. Using the barbershop as an example, the simulation terminates sometime after 12:00 noon when the haircut for the
last customer allowed in the shop is completed. Therefore, the termination condition would be when the simulation clock time is greater than or equal to 12:00
noon and when the last entity (customer) exits the system (barbershop).

9.5.3 Determining the Number of Replications

Given the initial or starting state of the simulation model and the terminating
condition(s) for the simulation run, the analyst is ready to begin conducting
experiments with the model. Experiments involving terminating simulations are
usually conducted by making several simulation runs or replications of the
period of interest using a different stream of random numbers for each run. This
procedure enables statistically independent and unbiased observations to be
made on response variables of interest in the system (the number of customers in

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the system, the utilization of resources) over the period simulated, as discussed
in Section 9.3.
The answer to the question of how many replications are necessary is usually
based on the analysts desired half-width of a condence interval. As a general
guideline, begin by making 10 independent replications of the simulation and add
more replications until the desired condence interval half-width is reached. For
the barbershop example, 18 independent replications of the simulation were required to achieve the desired condence interval for the expected number of haircuts given on Saturday mornings.

9.6 Experimenting with Nonterminating Simulations

The issues associated with generating meaningful output for terminating simulations are somewhat different from those associated with nonterminating systems.
However, the same statistical methods are used to analyze the output from both
types of simulations, provided that the output observations are unbiased, independent, and normally distributed.
Nonterminating simulations are conducted when we are interested in the
steady-state behavior of the simulation model. As such, the following topics must
be addressed:
1. Determining and eliminating the initial warm-up bias.
2. Obtaining sample observations.
3. Determining run length.

9.6.1 Determining the Warm-up Period

In a steady-state simulation, we are interested in the steady-state behavior of the
model. If a model starts out empty of entities, it usually takes some time before it
reaches steady state. In a steady-state condition, the response variables in the system (like mean waiting time or throughput rate) exhibit statistical regularity (the
distribution of a response variable is approximately the same from one time period
to the next). Figure 9.3 illustrates the typical behavior of an output response measure as the simulation progresses through time. Note that the distribution of the
output response changes very little once steady state is reached.
The time that it takes to reach steady state is a function of the activity times
and the amount of activity taking place. For some models, steady state might be
reached in a few hours of simulation time. For other models, it may take several
hundred hours to reach steady state. In modeling steady-state behavior, we have
the problem of determining when a model reaches steady state. This start-up period is usually referred to as the warm-up period (transient period). We want to
wait until after the warm-up period before we start gathering any statistics. This
way we eliminate any bias due to observations taken during the transient state of
the model. For example, in Figure 9.3 any observations recorded before the warmup ends would be biased to the low side. Therefore, we delete these observations

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FIGURE 9.3
Behavior of models output response as it reaches steady state.
Warm-up ends
Steady state

Transient state

Averaged
output
response
measure
(y )
Distribution of output response
1

Simulation time

from the beginning of the run and use the remaining observations to estimate the
true mean response of the model.
While several methods have been developed for estimating the warm-up
time, the easiest and most straightforward approach is to run a preliminary simulation of the system, preferably with several (5 to 10) replications, average the
output values at each time step across replications, and observe at what time the
system reaches statistical stability. This usually occurs when the averaged output
response begins to atten out or a repeating pattern emerges. Plotting each data
point (averaged output response) and connecting them with a line usually helps to
identify when the averaged output response begins to atten out or begins a repeating pattern. Sometimes, however, the variation of the output response is so
large that it makes the plot erratic, and it becomes difcult to visually identify the
end of the warm-up period. Such a case is illustrated in Figure 9.4. The raw data
plot in Figure 9.4 was produced by recording a models output response for a
queues average contents during 50-hour time periods (time slices) and averaging
the output values from each time period across ve replications. In this case, the
model was initialized with several entities in the queue. Therefore, we need to
eliminate this apparent upward bias before recording observations of the queues
average contents. Table 9.4 shows this models output response for the 20 time
periods (50 hours each) for each of the ve replications. The raw data plot in Figure 9.4 was constructed using the 20 values under the yi column in Table 9.4.
When the models output response is erratic, as in Figure 9.4, it is useful
to smooth it with a moving average. A moving average is constructed by
calculating the arithmetic average of the w most recent data points (averaged
output responses) in the data set. You have to select the value of w, which is called
the moving-average window. As you increase the value of w, you increase the
smoothness of the moving average plot. An indicator for the end of the warm-up

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FIGURE 9.4
SimRunner uses the Welch moving-average method to help identify the end of the warm-up period
that occurs around the third or fourth period (150 to 200 hours) for this model.

time is when the moving average plot appears to atten out. Thus the routine is to
begin with a small value of w and increase it until the resulting moving average plot
begins to atten out.
The moving-average plot in Figure 9.4 with a window of six (w = 6) helps
to identify the end of the warm-up periodwhen the moving average plot appears
to atten out at around the third or fourth period (150 to 200 hours). Therefore,
we ignore the observations up to the 200th hour and record only those after the
200th hour when we run the simulation. The moving-average plot in Figure 9.4
was constructed using the 14 values under the yi (6) column in Table 9.4 that were
computed using

w

s=w i+s
if i = w + 1, . . . , m w

2w + 1
yi (w) =
i1

s=(i1) i+s
if i = 1, . . . , w
2i 1
where m denotes the total number of periods and w denotes the window of the
moving average (m = 20 and w = 6 in this example).

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TABLE 9.4 Welch Moving Average Based on Five Replications and 20 Periods

Period (i)

Time

Total
Contents for
Period,
Totali

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000

4.41
3.15
2.58
2.92
3.13
2.51
5.09
3.15
2.79
4.07
3.42
3.90
3.63
9.12
3.88
3.16
5.34
2.84
2.65
3.27

4.06
2.95
2.50
3.07
3.28
3.07
3.77
2.89
3.40
3.62
3.74
1.47
3.77
4.25
3.54
6.91
3.17
3.54
4.64
4.68

6.37
2.94
3.07
4.48
2.34
5.45
4.44
3.63
9.78
4.50
2.46
5.75
2.14
3.83
3.08
2.70
2.47
2.33
5.18
3.39

11.72
3.52
3.14
4.79
3.32
5.15
3.58
4.43
4.13
2.38
3.08
5.34
4.24
3.19
2.94
5.64
2.73
10.14
4.97
2.95

1.71
2.86
4.32
3.47
3.19
5.34
2.63
4.15
4.48
3.42
2.49
4.19
6.36
5.91
2.51
2.57
2.68
3.20
3.93
3.46

28.27
15.42
15.61
18.73
15.26
21.52
19.51
18.25
24.58
17.99
15.19
20.65
20.14
26.30
15.95
20.98
16.39
22.05
21.37
17.75

Observed Mean Queue Contents (Replications)

Average
Contents
per Period,
Totali
yi =
5
5.65
3.08
3.12
3.75
3.05
4.30
3.90
3.65
4.92
3.60
3.04
4.13
4.03
5.26
3.19
4.20
3.28
4.41
4.27
3.55

Welch
Moving
Average,
yi (6)
5.65
3.95
3.73
3.84
3.94
3.82
3.86
3.83
3.84
3.93
3.89
3.99
3.99
3.96

This is a somewhat busy-looking equation that turns out not to be so bad

when you put some numbers into it, which we will now do to compute the Welch
moving average, yi (6), column in Table 9.4. We use the bottom part of the equation to compute the moving averages up to the wth moving average. Our w = 6,
so we will compute y1 (6), y2 (6), y3 (6), y4 (6), y5 (6), and y6 (6) using the bottom
part of the yi (w) equation as follows:
y1 (6) =

y1
5.65
=
= 5.65
1
1

y2 (6) =

y1 + y2 + y3
5.65 + 3.08 + 3.12
=
= 3.95
3
3

y3 (6) =

y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 + y5
5.65 + 3.08 + 3.12 + 3.75 + 3.05
=
= 3.73
5
5

y6 (6) =

y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 + y5 + y6 + y7 + y8 + y9 + y10 + y11
= 3.82
11

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Notice the pattern that as i increases, we average more data points together,
with the ith data point appearing in the middle of the sum in the numerator (an
equal number of data points are on each side of the center data point). This continues until we reach the (w + 1)th moving average, when we switch to the top
part of the yi (w) equation. For our example, the switch occurs at the 7th moving
average because w = 6. From this point forward, we average the 2w + 1 closest
data points. For our example, we average the 2(6) + 1 = 13 closest data points
(the ith data point plus the w = 6 closest data points above it and the w = 6 closest data point below it in Table 9.4 as follows:
y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 + y5 + y6 + y7 + y8 + y9 + y10 + y11 + y12 + y13
13
y7 (6) = 3.86

y7 (6) =

y2 + y3 + y4 + y5 + y6 + y7 + y8 + y9 + y10 + y11 + y12 + y13 + y14

13
y8 (6) = 3.83
y8 (6) =

y3 + y4 + y5 + y6 + y7 + y8 + y9 + y10 + y11 + y12 + y13 + y14 + y15

13
y9 (6) = 3.84
y9 (6) =

y8 + y9 + y10 + y11 + y12 + y13 + y14 + y15 + y16 + y17 + y18 + y19 + y20
13
y14 (6) = 3.96
y14 (6) =

Eventually we run out of data and have to stop. The stopping point occurs when
i = m w. In our case with m = 20 periods and w = 6, we stopped when i =
20 6 = 14.
The development of this graphical method for estimating the end of the
warm-up time is attributed to Welch (Law and Kelton 2000). This method is
sometimes referred to as the Welch moving-average method and is implemented
in SimRunner. Note that when applying the method that the length of each replication should be relatively long and the replications should allow even rarely
occurring events such as infrequent downtimes to occur many times. Law and
Kelton (2000) recommend that w not exceed a value greater than about m/4. To
determine a satisfactory warm-up time using Welchs method, one or more key
output response variables, such as the average number of entities in a queue or the
average utilization of a resource, should be monitored for successive periods.
Once these variables begin to exhibit steady state, a good practice to follow would
be to extend the warm-up period by 20 to 30 percent. This approach is simple,
conservative, and usually satisfactory. The danger is in underestimating the
warm-up period, not overestimating it.

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9.6.2 Obtaining Sample Observations

It seems that for nonterminating simulations, you could simply run the simulation
long enough for statistical output to stabilize and then analyze the results. In other
words, you might use the results from a single long run after removing the bias
created by the warm-up period. For computing condence intervals, however,
independent sample observations must be created. In a terminating simulation,
simply running multiple replications creates independent sample observations.
For steady-state simulations, we have several options for obtaining independent
sample observations. Two approaches that are widely used are running multiple
replications and interval batching.
Independent Observations via Replications
Running multiple replications for nonterminating simulations is similar to the way
it is done for terminating simulations. The only differences are that (1) the initial
warm-up bias must be determined and eliminated and (2) an appropriate run
length must be determined. The warm-up issue was addressed in Section 9.6.1,
and the run length issue is addressed in Section 9.6.3. Once the replications are
made, condence intervals can be computed as described earlier in Section 9.3.
This was done for the ATM simulation of Lab Chapter 3 to produce Figure 9.2.
Note the warm-up time of 1,000 hours and total simulation time of 1,500 hours at
the top of the ProModel output report. For this simulation, statistics were collected
from time 1,000 hours to 1,500 hours.
One advantage of running independent replications is that it ensures that
samples are independent. On the negative side, running through the warm-up
phase for each replication extends the length of time to perform the replications.
Furthermore, there is a possibility that the length of the warm-up period is underestimated, causing biased results from each replication. However, because the
replication method ensures that samples are independent, we strongly encourage
its use when the warm-up period is properly detected and removed.
Independent Observations via Batch Means
Interval batching (also referred to as the batch means technique) is a method in
which a single, long run is made and statistics are collected during separate periods. Although 5 to 10 replications are typically used to determine the warm-up period in preliminary experiments (see Section 9.6.1), the simulation is run only
once to collect observations for statistical analysis purposes. Placing the output
values from the simulation run into groups or batches forms the set of observations. For example, Figure 9.5 illustrates the output response from a simulation
during a single run. Beyond the warm-up period, the run is divided into nonoverlapping intervals. Note that the intervals are of an equal amount of time (as in
Figure 9.5) or an equal number of observations (every 1,000 entities observed).
Next, the output responses that were generated during a common time interval are
batched together. If the output measure of interest is a time-weighted statistic
(such as the average number of entities in the system), then the batch interval

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FIGURE 9.5
Individual statistics on
the output measure are
computed for each
batch interval.

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Warm-up ends
Output
response
measure
(y )

Batch
Batch
Batch
Batch
Batch
interval 1 interval 2 interval 3 interval 4 interval 5

Simulation time

TABLE 9.5 A Single Replication Divided into Batch Intervals

Batch Interval (i)

Within Batch Interval Observations yij

Average xi

1
2
3
4
5
..
.

y11 , y12 , y13 , y14 , . . . , y1m

y21 , y22 , y23 , y24 , . . . , y2m
y31 , y32 , y33 , y34 , . . . , y3m
y41 , y42 , y43 , y44 , . . . , y4m
y51 , y52 , y53 , y54 , . . . , y5m
..
.

x1
x2
x3
x4
x5
..
.

yn1 , yn2 , yn3 , yn4 , . . . , ynm

xn

should be based on time. If the output measure is based on observations (like the
waiting time of entities in a queue), then the batch interval is typically based on the
number of observations.
Table 9.5 details how a single, long simulation run (one replication), like the
one shown in Figure 9.5, is partitioned into batch intervals for the purpose of obtaining (approximately) independent and identically distributed observations of a
simulation models output response. Note the similarity between Table 9.3 of
Section 9.3 and Table 9.5. As in Table 9.3, the observations represent the time an
entity waited in queues during the simulation. The waiting time for an entity is
denoted by yi j , where the subscript i denotes the interval of time (batch interval)
from which the observation came and the subscript j denotes the value of the
counter used to count entities as they exit the system during a particular batch interval. For example, y23 is the waiting time for the third entity that was processed
through the system during the second batch interval of time.
Because these observations are all from a single run (replication), they are
not statistically independent. For example, the waiting time of the mth entity exiting the system during the rst batch interval, denoted y1m , is correlated with the

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waiting time of the rst entity to exit the system during the second batch interval,
denoted y21 . This is because if the waiting time observed for one entity is long, it
is likely that the waiting time for the next entity observed is going to be long, and
vice versa. Therefore, adjacent observations in Table 9.5 will usually be autocorrelated. However, the value of y14 can be somewhat uncorrelated with the
value of y24 if they are spaced far enough apart such that the conditions that resulted in the waiting time value of y14 occurred so long ago that they have little or
no inuence on the waiting time value of y24 . Therefore, most of the observations
within the interior of one batch interval can become relatively uncorrelated with
most of the observations in the interior of other batch intervals, provided they are
spaced sufciently far apart. Thus the goal is to extend the batch interval length
until there is very little correlation (you cannot totally eliminate it) between the
observations appearing in different batch intervals. When this occurs, it is reasonable to assume that observations within one batch interval are independent of the
observations within other batch intervals.
With the independence assumption in hand, the observations within a batch
interval can be treated in the same manner as we treated observations within a
replication in Table 9.3. Therefore, the values in the Average column in Table 9.5,
which represent the average amount of time the entities processed during the
ith batch interval waited in queues, are computed as follows:

m
j=1 yi j
xi =
m
where m is the number of entities processed through the system during the batch interval of time and yi j is the time that the jth entity processed through the system
waited in queues during the ith batch interval. The xi values in the Average column
are approximately independent and identically distributed and can be used to compute a sample mean for estimating the true average time an entity waits in queues:

n
xi
x = i=1
n
The sample standard deviation is also computed as before:


n
2
i=1 [x i x]
s=
n1
And, if we assume that the observations (x1 through xn) are normally distributed (or
at least approximately normally distributed), a condence interval is computed by
x

(tn1,/2 )s

where tn1,/2 is a value from the Students t table in Appendix B for an level of
signicance.
ProModel automatically computes point estimates and condence intervals
using the above method. Figure 9.6 is a ProModel output report from a single,

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FIGURE 9.6
Batch means technique used on ATM simulation in Lab Chapter 3. Warm-up period is from 0 to 1,000 hours. Each
batch interval is 500 hours in length.
----------------------------------------------------------------General Report
Output from C:\Bowden\2nd Edition\ATM System Ch9.MOD [ATM System]
Date: Nov/26/2002
Time: 04:44:24 PM
----------------------------------------------------------------Scenario
: Normal Run
Replication
: 1 of 1
Period
: All
Warmup Time
: 1000 hr
Simulation Time : 3500 hr
----------------------------------------------------------------LOCATIONS
Average
Location Scheduled
Total
Minutes Average Maximum Current
Name
Hours Capacity Entries Per Entry Contents Contents Contents % Util
--------- --------- -------- ------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -----ATM Queue
500
999999
9903
9.457
3.122
26
18
0.0 (Batch 1)
ATM Queue
500
999999
10065
9.789
3.284
24
0
0.0 (Batch 2)
ATM Queue
500
999999
9815
8.630
2.823
23
16
0.0 (Batch 3)
ATM Queue
500
999999
9868
8.894
2.925
24
1
0.0 (Batch 4)
ATM Queue
500
999999
10090
12.615
4.242
34
0
0.0 (Batch 5)
ATM Queue
500
999999 9948.2
9.877
3.279
26.2
7
0.0 (Average)
ATM Queue
0
0 122.441
1.596
0.567
4.494
9.165
0.0 (Std. Dev.)
ATM Queue
500
999999 9796.19
7.895
2.575
20.620
-4.378
0.0 (95% C.I. Low)
ATM Queue
500
999999 10100.2
11.860
3.983
31.779
18.378
0.0 (95% C.I. High)

long run of the ATM simulation in Lab Chapter 3 with the output divided into ve
batch intervals of 500 hours each after a warm-up time of 1,000 hours. The column under the Locations section of the output report labeled Average Minutes
Per Entry displays the average amount of time that customer entities waited in
the queue during each of the ve batch intervals. These values correspond to the
xi values of Table 9.5. Note that the 95 percent condence interval automatically
computed by ProModel in Figure 9.6 is comparable, though not identical, to the
95 percent condence interval in Figure 9.2 for the same output statistic.
Establishing the batch interval length such that the observations x1 , x2 , . . . , xn
of Table 9.5 (assembled after the simulation reaches steady state) are approximately independent is difcult and time-consuming. There is no foolproof method
for doing this. However, if you can generate a large number of observations, say
n 100, you can gain some insight about the independence of the observations
by estimating the autocorrelation between adjacent observations (lag-1 autocorrelation). See Chapter 6 for an introduction to tests for independence and autocorrelation plots. The observations are treated as being independent if their lag-1
autocorrelation is zero. Unfortunately, current methods available for estimating the
lag-1 autocorrelation are not very accurate. Thus we may be persuaded that our observations are almost independent if the estimated lag-1 autocorrelation computed
from a large number of observations falls between 0.20 to +0.20. The word
almost is emphasized because there is really no such thing as almost independent

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(the observations are independent or they are not). What we are indicating here is
that we are leaning toward calling the observations independent when the estimate
of the lag-1 autocorrelation is between 0.20 and +0.20. Recall that autocorrelation values fall between 1. Before we elaborate on this idea for determining if an
acceptable batch interval length has been used to derive the observations, lets talk
about positive autocorrelation versus negative autocorrelation.
Positive autocorrelation is a bigger enemy to us than negative autocorrelation
because our sample standard deviation s will be biased low if the observations
from which it is computed are positively correlated. This would result in a falsely
narrow condence interval (smaller half-width), leading us to believe that we have
a better estimate of the mean than we actually have. Negatively correlated observations have the opposite effect, producing a falsely wide condence interval
(larger half-width), leading us to believe that we have a worse estimate of the mean
than we actually have. A negative autocorrelation may lead us to waste time collecting additional observations to get a more precise (narrow) condence interval
but will not result in a hasty decision. Therefore, an emphasis is placed on guarding against positive autocorrelation. We present the following procedure adapted
from Banks et al. (2001) for estimating an acceptable batch interval length.
For the observations x1 , x2 , . . . , xn derived from n batches of data assembled
after the simulation has researched steady state as outlined in Table 9.5, compute
an estimate of the lag-1 autocorrelation 1 using

n1
(xi x)(x
i+1 x)

1 = i=1 2
s (n 1)
where s 2 is the sample variance (sample standard deviation squared) and x is the
sample mean of the n observations. Recall the recommendation that n should be
at least 100 observations. If the estimated lag-1 autocorrelation is not between
0.20 and +0.20, then extend the original batch interval length by 50 to 100 percent, rerun the simulation to collect a new set of n observations, and check the
lag-1 autocorrelation between the new x1 to xn observations. This would be repeated until the estimated lag-1 autocorrelation falls between 0.20 and +0.20
(or you give up trying to get within the range). Note that falling below 0.20 is
less worrisome than exceeding +0.20.
Achieving 0.20 1 0.20: Upon achieving an estimated lag-1
autocorrelation within the desired range, rebatch the data by combining
adjacent batch intervals of data into a larger batch. This produces a smaller
number of observations that are based on a larger batch interval length. The
lag-1 autocorrelation for this new set of observations will likely be closer to
zero than the lag-1 autocorrelation of the previous set of observations
because the new set of observations is based on a larger batch interval
length. Note that at this point, you are not rerunning the simulation with the
new, longer batch interval but are rebatching the output data from the last
run. For example, if a batch interval length of 125 hours produced 100
observations (x1 to x100 ) with an estimated lag-1 autocorrelation 1 = 0.15,

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you might combine four contiguous batches of data into one batch with a
length of 500 hours (125 hours 4  500 hours). Rebatching the data
with the 500-hour batch interval length would leave you 25 observations (x1
to x25 ) from which to construct the condence interval. We recommend that
you rebatch the data into 10 to 30 batch intervals.
Not Achieving 0.20 1 0.20: If obtaining an estimated lag-1
autocorrelation within the desired range becomes impossible because you
cannot continue extending the length of the simulation run, then rebatch the
data from your last run into no more than about 10 batch intervals and
construct the condence interval. Interpret the condence interval with the
apprehension that the observations may be signicantly correlated.
Lab Chapter 9 provides an opportunity for you to gain experience applying
these criteria to a ProModel simulation experiment. However, remember that
there is no universally accepted method for determining an appropriate batch interval length. See Banks et al. (2001) for additional details and variations on this
approach, such as a concluding hypothesis test for independence on the nal set
of observations. The danger is in setting the batch interval length too short, not too
long. This is the reason for extending the length of the batch interval in the last
step. A starting point for setting the initial batch interval length from which to
begin the process of evaluating the lag-1 autocorrelation estimates is provided in
Section 9.6.3.
In summary, the statistical methods in this chapter are applied to the data
compiled from batch intervals in the same manner they were applied to the data
compiled from replications. And, as before, the accuracy of point and interval estimates generally improves as the sample size (number of batch intervals) increases. In this case we increase the number of batch intervals by extending the
length of the simulation run. As a general guideline, the simulation should be run
long enough to create around 10 batch intervals and possibly more, depending on
the desired condence interval half-width. If a trade-off must be made between
the number of batch intervals and the batch interval length, then err on the side of
increasing the batch interval length. It is better to have a few independent observations than to have several autocorrelated observations when using the statistical
methods presented in this text.

9.6.3 Determining Run Length

Determining run length for terminating simulations is quite simple because a natural event or time point denes it. Determining the run length for a steady-state
simulation is more difcult because the simulation could be run indenitely. Obviously, running extremely long simulations can be very time-consuming, so the
objective is to determine an appropriate run length to ensure a representative sample of the steady-state response of the system.
The recommended length of the simulation run for a steady-state simulation
depends on the interval between the least frequently occurring event and the type

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FIGURE 9.7

Replication 3

Batch intervals
compared with
replications.

Replication 2

Replication 1

Batch

Batch
interval 1

Batch
interval 2

Batch
interval 3

Simulation time

of sampling method (replication or interval batching) used. If running independent replications, it is usually a good idea to run the simulation long enough past
the warm-up point to let every type of event (including rare ones) happen many
times and, if practical, several hundred times. Remember, the longer the model is
run, the more condent you can become that the results represent the steady-state
behavior. A guideline for determining the initial run length for the interval batching method is much the same as for the replication method. Essentially, the starting point for selecting the length of each batch interval is the length of time chosen to run the simulation past the warm-up period when using the replication
method. The total run length is the sum of the time for each batch interval plus the
initial warm-up time. This guideline is illustrated in Figure 9.7.
The choice between running independent replications or batch intervals can
be made based on how long it takes the simulation to reach steady state. If the
warm-up period is short (that is, it doesnt take long to simulate through the warmup period), then running replications is preferred over batch intervals because running replications guarantees that the observations are independent. However, if
the warm-up period is long, then the batch interval method is preferred because
the time required to get through the warm-up period is incurred only once, which
reduces the amount of time to collect the necessary number of observations for a
desired condence interval. Also, because a single, long run is made, chances are
that a better estimate of the models true steady-state behavior is obtained.

9.7 Summary
Simulation experiments can range from a few replications (runs) to a large number of replications. While ballpark decisions require little analysis, more precise
decision making requires more careful analysis and extensive experimentation.

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Correctly conguring the model to produce valid output is essential to making

sound decisions.
This chapter has identied the issues involved in producing and analyzing simulation output. Key issues include determining run length, number of replications,
number of batch intervals, batch interval length, and warm-up times. When running multiple replications, the modeler needs to understand the concepts of random
number streams and random number seeds. Several guidelines were presented
throughout the chapter to help guide the analyst in interpreting simulation output
data using point and interval estimates. Remember that the guidelines are not rigid
rules that must be followed but rather are common practices that have worked
well in the past.

9.8 Review Questions

1. Dene population, sample, and sample size.
2. If you run the same simulation model twice, would you expect to see
any difference in the results? Explain.
3. How are multiple simulation replications produced?
4. What do x and s dene, and why are they called point estimators?
5. What does a condence interval express?
6. What does the condence interval on simulation output reveal about the
validity of the model?
7. In order to apply statistical measures, such as standard deviation and
condence interval estimation, what assumptions must be made
regarding simulation output?
8. What is the central limit theorem and how is it applied to simulation
output?
9. Give an example of a system in a transient state; in a steady state.
10. How do you determine the length of a terminating simulation run?
11. How many replications should be made for terminating simulations?
12. Verify that the 95 percent condence interval has been correctly
computed by ProModel for the Average Minutes Per Entry statistic
shown in Figure 9.2. The ProModel half-width of 1.408 minutes
represents an approximate 14.3 percent error in the point estimate
x = 9.820 minutes. Determine the approximate number of additional
replications needed to estimate the average time that customer entities
wait in the ATM queue with a percentage error of 5 percent and a
condence level of 95 percent.
13. Describe two methods for obtaining sample observations for a
nonterminating simulation.
14. When determining the batch interval length, what is the danger in
making the interval too small?

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15. Given the ve batch means for the Average Minutes Per Entry of
customer entities at the ATM queue location in Figure 9.6, estimate the
lag-1 autocorrelation 1 . Note that ve observations are woefully
inadequate for obtaining an accurate estimate of the lag-1
autocorrelation. Normally you will want to base the estimate on at least
100 observations. The question is designed to give you some experience
using the 1 equation so that you will understand what the Stat::Fit
software is doing when you use it in Lab Chapter 9 to crunch through
an example with 100 observations.
16. Construct a Welch moving average with a window of 2 (w = 2) using
the data in Table 9.4 and compare it to the Welch moving average with
a window of 6 (w = 6) presented in Table 9.4.

References
Banks, Jerry; John S. Carson, II; Barry L. Nelson; and David M. Nicol. Discrete-Event
System Simulation. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 2001.
Bateman, Robert E.; Royce O. Bowden; Thomas J. Gogg; Charles R. Harrell; and Jack
R. A. Mott. System Improvement Using Simulation. Orem, UT: PROMODEL Corp.,
1997.
Hines, William W., and Douglas C. Montgomery. Probability and Statistics in Engineering
and Management Science. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1990.
Law, Averill M., and David W. Kelton. Simulation Modeling and Analysis. New York:
McGraw-Hill, 2000.
Montgomery, Douglas C. Design and Analysis of Experiments. New York: John Wiley &
Sons, 1991.
Petersen, Roger G. Design and Analysis of Experiments. New York: Marcel Dekker, 1985.

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10. Comparing Systems

10 COMPARING SYSTEMS

The method that proceeds without analysis is like the groping of a blind man.
Socrates

10.1 Introduction
In many cases, simulations are conducted to compare two or more alternative designs of a system with the goal of identifying the superior system relative to some
performance measure. Comparing alternative system designs requires careful
analysis to ensure that differences being observed are attributable to actual differences in performance and not to statistical variation. This is where running either
multiple replications or batches is required. Suppose, for example, that method A
for deploying resources yields a throughput of 100 entities for a given time period
while method B results in 110 entities for the same period. Is it valid to conclude
that method B is better than method A, or might additional replications actually
lead to the opposite conclusion?
You can evaluate alternative congurations or operating policies by performing several replications of each alternative and comparing the average results
from the replications. Statistical methods for making these types of comparisons
are called hypotheses tests. For these tests, a hypothesis is rst formulated (for
example, that methods A and B both result in the same throughput) and then a test
is made to see whether the results of the simulation lead us to reject the hypothesis. The outcome of the simulation runs may cause us to reject the hypothesis that
methods A and B both result in equal throughput capabilities and conclude that the
throughput does indeed depend on which method is used.
This chapter extends the material presented in Chapter 9 by providing statistical methods that can be used to compare the output of different simulation models that represent competing designs of a system. The concepts behind hypothesis
testing are introduced in Section 10.2. Section 10.3 addresses the case when two
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alternative system designs are to be compared, and Section 10.4 considers the
case when more than two alternative system designs are to be compared. Additionally, a technique called common random numbers is described in Section 10.5
that can sometimes improve the accuracy of the comparisons.

10.2 Hypothesis Testing

An inventory allocation example will be used to further explore the use of hypothesis testing for comparing the output of different simulation models. Suppose
a production system consists of four machines and three buffer storage areas.
Parts entering the system require processing by each of the four machines in a serial fashion (Figure 10.1). A part is always available for processing at the rst
machine. After a part is processed, it moves from the machine to the buffer storage area for the next machine, where it waits to be processed. However, if the
buffer is full, the part cannot move forward and remains on the machine until a
space becomes available in the buffer. Furthermore, the machine is blocked and
no other parts can move to the machine for processing. The part exits the system
after being processed by the fourth machine.
The question for this system is how best to allocate buffer storage between the
machines to maximize the throughput of the system (number of parts completed
per hour). The production control staff has identied two candidate strategies for
allocating buffer capacity (number of parts that can be stored) between machines,
and simulation models have been built to evaluate the proposed strategies.
FIGURE 10.1
Production system
with four workstations
and three buffer
storage areas.

.72

4.56

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Suppose that Strategy 1 and Strategy 2 are the two buffer allocation strategies
proposed by the production control staff. We wish to identify the strategy that
maximizes the throughput of the production system (number of parts completed
per hour). Of course, the possibility exists that there is no signicant difference in
the performance of the two candidate strategies. That is to say, the mean throughput of the two proposed strategies is equal. A starting point for our problem is to
formulate our hypotheses concerning the mean throughput for the production
system under the two buffer allocation strategies. Next we work out the details of
setting up our experiments with the simulation models built to evaluate each strategy. For example, we may decide to estimate the true mean performance of each
strategy (1 and 2) by simulating each strategy for 16 days (24 hours per day)
past the warm-up period and replicating the simulation 10 times. After we run
experiments, we would use the simulation output to evaluate the hypotheses
concerning the mean throughput for the production system under the two buffer
allocation strategies.
In general, a null hypothesis, denoted H0, is drafted to state that the value of 1
is not signicantly different than the value of 2 at the level of signicance. An
alternate hypothesis, denoted H1, is drafted to oppose the null hypothesis H0. For
example, H1 could state that 1 and 2 are different at the level of signicance.
Stated more formally:
H0 : 1 = 2
H1 : 1 =

2

or equivalently H0 : 1 2 = 0
or equivalently H1 : 1 2
= 0

In the context of the example problem, the null hypothesis H0 states that the
mean throughputs of the system due to Strategy 1 and Strategy 2 do not differ. The
alternate hypothesis H1 states that the mean throughputs of the system due to
Strategy 1 and Strategy 2 do differ. Hypothesis testing methods are designed such
that the burden of proof is on us to demonstrate that H0 is not true. Therefore, if
our analysis of the data from our experiments leads us to reject H0, we can be condent that there is a signicant difference between the two population means. In
our example problem, the output from the simulation model for Strategy 1 represents possible throughput observations from one population, and the output from
the simulation model for Strategy 2 represents possible throughput observations
from another population.
The level of signicance in these hypotheses refers to the probability of
making a Type I error. A Type I error occurs when we reject H0 in favor of H1
when in fact H0 is true. Typically is set at a value of 0.05 or 0.01. However,
the choice is yours, and it depends on how small you want the probability of
making a Type I error to be. A Type II error occurs when we fail to reject H0 in
favor of H1 when in fact H1 is true. The probability of making a Type II error is
denoted as . Hypothesis testing methods are designed such that the probability
of making a Type II error, , is as small as possible for a given value of . The
relationship between and is that increases as decreases. Therefore, we
should be careful not to make too small.
We will test these hypotheses using a condence interval approach to
determine if we should reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the

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alternative hypothesis. The reason for using the condence interval method is that
it is equivalent to conducting a two-tailed test of hypothesis with the added benet of indicating the magnitude of the difference between 1 and 2 if they are in
fact signicantly different. The rst step of this procedure is to construct a condence interval to estimate the difference between the two means (1 2 ). This
can be done in different ways depending on how the simulation experiments are
conducted (we will discuss this later). For now, lets express the condence interval on the difference between the two means as
P[(x1 x2 ) hw 1 2 (x1 x2 ) + hw] = 1
where hw denotes the half-width of the condence interval. Notice the similarities between this condence interval expression and the one given on page 227 in
Chapter 9. Here we have replaced x with x1 x2 and with 1 2 .
If the two population means are the same, then 1 2 = 0, which is our
null hypothesis H0. If H0 is true, our condence interval should include zero with
a probability of 1 . This leads to the following rule for deciding whether to reject or fail to reject H0. If the condence interval includes zero, we fail to reject H0
and conclude that the value of 1 is not signicantly different than the value of 2
at the level of signicance (the mean throughput of Strategy 1 is not signicantly different than the mean throughput of Strategy 2). However, if the condence interval does not include zero, we reject H0 and conclude that the value of
1 is signicantly different than the value of 2 at the level of signicance
(throughput values for Strategy 1 and Strategy 2 are signicantly different).
Figure 10.2(a) illustrates the case when the condence interval contains zero,
leading us to fail to reject the null hypothesis H0 and conclude that there is no signicant difference between 1 and 2. The failure to obtain sufcient evidence to
pick one alternative over another may be due to the fact that there really is no difference, or it may be a result of the variance in the observed outcomes being too
high to be conclusive. At this point, either additional replications may be run or one
of several variance reduction techniques might be employed (see Section 10.5).
Figure 10.2(b) illustrates the case when the condence interval is completely to the
FIGURE 10.2
Three possible
positions of a
condence interval
relative to zero.

(a)

(b)

(c)

[------|------]
[------|------]

Fail to
reject H0

Reject H0

[------|------]

Reject H0

1 2 0

[------|------] denotes confidence interval (x1 x 2) hw

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left of zero, leading us to reject H0. This case suggests that 1 2 < 0 or, equivalently, 1 < 2 . Figure 10.2(c) illustrates the case when the condence interval
is completely to the right of zero, leading us to also reject H0. This case suggests
that 1 2 > 0 or, equivalently, 1 > 2 . These rules are commonly used in
practice to make statements about how the population means differ
(1 > 2 or 1 < 2 ) when the condence interval does not include zero (Banks
et al. 2001; Hoover and Perry 1989).

10.3 Comparing Two Alternative System Designs

In this section, we will present two methods based on the condence interval
approach that are commonly used to compare two alternative system designs. To
facilitate our understanding of the condence interval methods, the presentation
will relate to the buffer allocation example in Section 10.2, where the production
control staff has identied two candidate strategies believed to maximize the
throughput of the system. We seek to discover if the mean throughputs of the
system due to Strategy 1 and Strategy 2 are signicantly different. We begin by estimating the mean performance of the two proposed buffer allocation strategies (1
and 2) by simulating each strategy for 16 days (24 hours per day) past the warmup period. The simulation experiment was replicated 10 times for each strategy.
Therefore, we obtained a sample size of 10 for each strategy (n 1 = n 2 = 10). The
average hourly throughput achieved by each strategy is shown in Table 10.1.
As in Chapter 9, the methods for computing condence intervals in this chapter require that our observations be independent and normally distributed. The 10
observations in column B (Strategy 1 Throughput) of Table 10.1 are independent
TABLE 10.1 Comparison of Two Buffer Allocation Strategies
(A)
Replication
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Sample mean xi, for i = 1, 2
Sample standard deviation si , for i = 1, 2
Sample variance si2 , for i = 1, 2

(B)
Strategy 1
Throughput x1

(C)
Strategy 2
Throughput x2

54.48
57.36
54.81
56.20
54.83
57.69
58.33
57.19
56.84
55.29

56.01
54.08
52.14
53.49
55.49
55.00
54.88
54.47
54.93
55.84

56.30
1.37
1.89

54.63
1.17
1.36

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because a unique segment (stream) of random numbers from the random number
generator was used for each replication. The same is true for the 10 observations in
column C (Strategy 2 Throughput). The use of random number streams is discussed in Chapters 3 and 9 and later in this chapter. At this point we are assuming
that the observations are also normally distributed. The reasonableness of assuming that the output produced by our simulation models is normally distributed is
discussed at length in Chapter 9. For this data set, we should also point out that two
different sets of random numbers were used to simulate the 10 replications of each
strategy. Therefore, the observations in column B are independent of the observations in column C. Stated another way, the two columns of observations are not
correlated. Therefore, the observations are independent within a population (strategy) and between populations (strategies). This is an important distinction and will
be employed later to help us choose between different methods for computing the
condence intervals used to compare the two strategies.
From the observations in Table 10.1 of the throughput produced by each strategy, it is not obvious which strategy yields the higher throughput. Inspection of the
summary statistics indicates that Strategy 1 produced a higher mean throughput
for the system; however, the sample variance for Strategy 1 was higher than for
Strategy 2. Recall that the variance provides a measure of the variability of the data
and is obtained by squaring the standard deviation. Equations for computing the
sample mean x,
sample variance s2, and sample standard deviation s are given in
Chapter 9. Because of this variation, we should be careful when making conclusions about the population of throughput values (1 and 2) by only inspecting the
point estimates (x1 and x2 ). We will avoid the temptation and use the output from
the 10 replications of each simulation model along with a condence interval to
make a more informed decision.
We will use an = 0.05 level of signicance to compare the two candidate
strategies using the following hypotheses:
H0 : 1 2 = 0
H1 : 1 2
= 0
where the subscripts 1 and 2 denote Strategy 1 and Strategy 2, respectively. As
stated earlier, there are two common methods for constructing a condence
interval for evaluating hypotheses. The rst method is referred to as the Welch
condence interval (Law and Kelton 2000; Miller 1986) and is a modied twosample-t condence interval. The second method is the paired-t condence interval (Miller et al. 1990). Weve chosen to present these two methods because their
statistical assumptions are more easily satised than are the assumptions for other
condence interval methods.

10.3.1 Welch Condence Interval

for Comparing Two Systems
The Welch condence interval method requires that the observations drawn from
each population (simulated system) be normally distributed and independent
within a population and between populations. Recall that the observations in

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Table 10.1 are independent and are assumed normal. However, the Welch condence interval method does not require that the number of samples drawn from
one population (n1) equal the number of samples drawn from the other population
(n2) as we did in the buffer allocation example. Therefore, if you have more observations for one candidate system than for the other candidate system, then by
all means use them. Additionally, this approach does not require that the two populations have equal variances (12 = 22 = 2 ) as do other approaches. This is
useful because we seldom know the true value of the variance of a population.
Thus we are not required to judge the equality of the variances based on the sample variances we compute for each population (s12 and s22 ) before using the Welch
condence interval method.
The Welch condence interval for an level of signicance is
P[(x1 x2 ) hw 1 2 (x1 x2 ) + hw] = 1
where x1 and x2 represent the sample means used to estimate the population
means 1 and 2; hw denotes the half-width of the condence interval and is
computed by


s2
s2
hw = tdf,/2 1 + 2
n1
n2
where df (degrees of freedom) is estimated by
 2
 2
s1 n 1 + s22 n 2
df   2 
  2 
s12 n 1 (n 1 1) + s22 n 2 (n 2 1)
and tdf,/2 is a factor obtained from the Students t table in Appendix B based on
the value of /2 and the estimated degrees of freedom. Note that the degrees of
freedom term in the Students t table is an integer value. Given that the estimated
degrees of freedom will seldom be an integer value, you will have to use interpolation to compute the tdf,/2 value.
For the example buffer allocation problem with an = 0.05 level of signicance, we use these equations and data from Table 10.1 to compute
df

[1.89/10 + 1.36/10]2
17.5
[1.89/10]2 /(10 1) + [1.36/10]2 /(10 1)

and


hw = t17.5,0.025

1.89 1.36
+
= 2.106 0.325 = 1.20 parts per hour
10
10

where tdf,/2 = t17.5,0.025 = 2.106 is determined from Students t table in Appendix B by interpolation. Now the 95 percent condence interval is
(x1 x2 ) hw 1 2 (x1 x2 ) + hw
(56.30 54.63) 1.20 1 2 (56.30 54.63) + 1.20
0.47 1 2 2.87

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With approximately 95 percent condence, we conclude that there is a signicant

difference between the mean throughputs of the two strategies because the interval excludes zero. The condence interval further suggests that the mean
throughput 1 of Strategy 1 is higher than the mean throughput 2 of Strategy 2
(an estimated 0.47 to 2.87 parts per hour higher).

10.3.2 Paired-t Condence Interval

for Comparing Two Systems
Like the Welch condence interval method, the paired-t condence interval
method requires that the observations drawn from each population (simulated system) be normally distributed and independent within a population. However, the
paired-t condence interval method does not require that the observations between
populations be independent. This allows us to use a technique called common
random numbers to force a positive correlation between the two populations of
observations in order to reduce the half-width of our condence interval without
increasing the number of replications. Recall that the smaller the half-width, the
better our estimate. The common random numbers technique is discussed in Section 10.5. Unlike the Welch method, the paired-t condence interval method does
require that the number of samples drawn from one population (n1) equal the number of samples drawn from the other population (n2) as we did in the buffer allocation example. And like the Welch method, the paired-t condence interval method
does not require that the populations have equal variances (12 = 22 = 2 ). This is
useful because we seldom know the true value of the variance of a population. Thus
we are not required to judge the equality of the variances based on the sample
variances we compute for each population (s12 and s22 ) before using the paired-t
condence interval method.
Given n observations (n 1 = n 2 = n), we pair the observations from each
population (x1 j and x2 j ) to dene a new random variable x(12) j = x1 j x2 j , for
j = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n. The x1 j denotes the jth observation from the rst population
sampled (the output from the jth replication of the simulation model for the rst
alternative design), x2 j denotes the jth observation from the second population
sampled (the output from the jth replication of the simulation model for the
second alternative design), and x(12) j denotes the difference between the jth
observations from the two populations. The point estimators for the new random
variable are
n
Sample mean = x(12) =


Sample standard deviation = s(12) =

j=1

x(12) j
n

n
j=1

x(12) j x(12)

where x(12) estimates (12) and s(12) estimates (12) .

n1

2

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The half-width equation for the paired-t condence interval is

hw =

(tn1,/2 )s(12)

where tn1,/2 is a factor that can be obtained from the Students t table in Appendix B based on the value of /2 and the degrees of freedom (n 1). Thus the
paired-t condence interval for an level of signicance is


P x(12) hw (12) x(12) + hw = 1
Notice that this is basically the same condence interval expression presented in
Chapter 9 with x(12) replacing x and (12) replacing .
Lets create Table 10.2 by restructuring Table 10.1 to conform to our new
paired notation and paired-t method before computing the condence interval
necessary for testing the hypotheses
H0 : 1 2 = 0
H1 : 1 2
= 0

or using the new paired notation (12) = 0

or using the new paired notation (12)
= 0

where the subscripts 1 and 2 denote Strategy 1 and Strategy 2, respectively.

The observations in Table 10.2 are identical to the observations in Table 10.1.
However, we added a fourth column. The values in the fourth column (column D) are computed by subtracting column C from column B. This fourth
column represents the 10 independent observations (n = 10) of our new random
variable x(12) j .

TABLE 10.2 Comparison of Two Buffer Allocation Strategies

Based on the Paired Differences
(A)

(B)

(C)

Replication ( j)

Strategy 1
Throughput x1 j

Strategy 2
Throughput x2 j

(D)
Throughput
Difference (B C)
x(12) j = x1 j x2 j

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

54.48
57.36
54.81
56.20
54.83
57.69
58.33
57.19
56.84
55.29

56.01
54.08
52.14
53.49
55.49
55.00
54.88
54.47
54.93
55.84

1.53
3.28
2.67
2.71
0.66
2.69
3.45
2.72
1.91
0.55

Sample mean x(12)

Sample standard deviation s(12)
2
Sample variance s(12)

1.67
1.85
3.42

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Now, for an = 0.05 level of signicance, the condence interval on the

new random variable x(12) j in the Throughput Difference column of Table 10.2
is computed using our equations as follows:
10
j=1 x (12) j
x(12) =
= 1.67 parts per hour
10


2
10 
j=1 x (12) j 1.67
s(12) =
= 1.85 parts per hour
10 1
hw =

(t9,0.025 )1.85
(2.262)1.85
=
= 1.32 parts per hour

10
10

where tn1,/2 = t9,0.025 = 2.262 is determined from the Students t table in

Appendix B. The 95 percent condence interval is
x(12) hw (12) x(12) + hw
1.67 1.32 (12) 1.67 + 1.32
0.35 (12) 2.99
With approximately 95 percent condence, we conclude that there is a signicant difference between the mean throughputs of the two strategies given that
the interval excludes zero. The condence interval further suggests that the
mean throughput 1 of Strategy 1 is higher than the mean throughput 2 of
Strategy 2 (an estimated 0.35 to 2.99 parts per hour higher). This is basically the
same conclusion reached using the Welch condence interval method presented
in Section 10.3.1.
Now lets walk back through the assumptions made when we used the paired-t
method. The main requirement is that the observations in the Throughput
Difference column be independent and normally distributed. Pairing the throughput observations for Strategy 1 with the throughput observations for Strategy 2 and
subtracting the two values formed the Throughput Difference column of Table
10.2. The observations for Strategy 1 are independent because nonoverlapping
streams of random numbers were used to drive each replication. The observations
for Strategy 2 are independent for the same reason. The use of random number
streams is discussed in Chapters 3 and 9 and later in this chapter. Therefore, there is
no doubt that these observations meet the independence requirement. It then
follows that the observations under the Throughput Difference column are also statistically independent. The assumption that has been made, without really knowing
if its true, is that the observations in the Throughput Difference column are normally distributed. The reasonableness of assuming that the output produced by our
simulation models is normally distributed is discussed at length in Chapter 9.

10.3.3 Welch versus the Paired-t Condence Interval

It is difcult to say beforehand which method would produce the smaller condence interval half-width for a given comparison problem. If, however, the

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observations between populations (simulated systems) are not independent, then

the Welch method cannot be used to compute the condence interval. For this
case, use the paired-t method. If the observations between populations are independent, the Welch method would be used to construct the condence interval
should you have an unequal number of observations from each population
(n 1
= n 2 ) and you do not wish to discard any of the observations in order to pair
them up as required by the paired-t method.

10.4 Comparing More Than Two Alternative System Designs

Sometimes we use simulation to compare more than two alternative designs of a
system with respect to a given performance measure. And, as in the case of comparing two alternative designs of a system, several statistical methods can be used
for the comparison. We will present two of the most popular methods used in simulation. The Bonferroni approach is presented in Section 10.4.1 and is useful for
comparing three to about ve designs. A class of linear statistical models useful
for comparing any number of alternative designs of a system is presented in Section 10.4.2. A brief introduction to factorial design and optimization experiments
is presented in Section 10.4.3.

10.4.1 The Bonferroni Approach for Comparing

More Than Two Alternative Systems
The Bonferroni approach is useful when there are more than two alternative system designs to compare with respect to some performance measure. Given K alternative system designs to compare, the null hypothesis H0 and alternative
hypothesis H1 become
H0 : 1 = 2 = 3 = = K =
H1 : i =

i 

for K alternative systems

for at least one pair i
= i 

where i and i  are between 1 and K and i < i  . The null hypothesis H0 states that
the means from the K populations (mean output of the K different simulation
models) are not different, and the alternative hypothesis H1 states that at least one
pair of the means are different.
The Bonferroni approach is very similar to the two condence interval
methods presented in Section 10.3 in that it is based on computing condence
intervals to determine if the true mean performance of one system (i ) is significantly different than the true mean performance of another system (i  ). In fact,
either the paired-t condence interval or the Welch condence interval can be
used with the Bonferroni approach. However, we will describe it in the context of
using paired-t condence intervals, noting that the paired-t condence interval
method can be used when the observations across populations are either independent or correlated.
The Bonferroni method is implemented by constructing a series of condence
intervals to compare all system designs to each other (all pairwise comparisons).

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The number of pairwise comparisons for K candidate designs is computed by

K (K 1)/2. A paired-t condence interval is constructed for each pairwise
comparison. For example, four candidate designs, denoted D1, D2, D3, and D4,
require the construction of six [4(4 1)/2] condence intervals to evaluate the
differences (D1D2) , (D1D3) , (D1D4) , (D2D3) , (D2D4) , and (D3D4) . The
six paired-t condence intervals are


P x(D1D2) hw (D1D2) x(D1D2) + hw = 1 1


P x(D1D3) hw (D1D3) x(D1D3) + hw = 1 2


P x(D1D4) hw (D1D4) x(D1D4) + hw = 1 3


P x(D2D3) hw (D2D3) x(D2D3) + hw = 1 4


P x(D2D4) hw (D2D4) x(D2D4) + hw = 1 5


P x(D3D4) hw (D3D4) x(D3D4) + hw = 1 6
The rule for deciding if there is a signicant difference between the true mean
performance of two system designs is the same as before. Condence intervals
that exclude zero indicate a signicant difference between the mean performance
of the two systems being compared.
In a moment, we will gain some experience using the Bonferroni approach
on our example problem. However, we should discuss an important issue about
the approach rst. Notice that the number of condence intervals quickly grows
as the number of candidate designs K increases [number of condence intervals
= K (K 1)/2]. This increases our computational workload, but, more
importantly, it has a rather dramatic effect on the overall condence we can place
in our conclusions. Specically, the overall condence in the correctness of our
conclusions goes down as the number of candidate designs increases. If we pick
any one of our condence intervals, say the sixth one, and evaluate it separately
from the other ve condence intervals, the probability that the sixth condence
interval statement is correct is equal to (1 6 ). Stated another way, we are
100(1 6 ) percent condent that the true but unknown mean ((D3D4) ) lies
within the interval (x(D3D4) hw) to (x(D3D4) + hw). Although each condence interval is computed separately, it is the simultaneous interpretation of all
the condence intervals that allows us to compare the competing designs for a
system. The Bonferroni inequality states that the probability of all
condence
six
6
i ). Stated
intervals being simultaneously correct is at least equal to (1 i=1
more generally,


m
i
P (all m condence interval statements are correct) (1 ) = 1 i=1
m
i and is the overall level of signicance and m = K (K21) and
where = i=1
is the number of condence interval statements.
If, in this example for comparing four candidate designs, we set 1 = 2 =
3 = 4 = 5 = 6 = 0.05, then the overall probability that all our conclusions
are correct is as low as (1 0.30), or 0.70. Being as low as 70 percent condent in

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our conclusions leaves much to be desired. To combat this, we simply lower the values of the individual signicance levels (1 = 2 = 3 = = m ) so their sum
is not so large. However, this does not come without a price, as we shall see later.
One way to assign values to the individual signicance levels is to rst establish an overall level of signicance and then divide it by the number of pairwise comparisons. That is,
i =

K (K 1)/2

for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , K (K 1)/2

Note, however, that it is not required that the individual signicance levels be assigned the same value. This is useful in cases where the decision maker wants to
place different levels of signicance on certain comparisons.
Practically speaking, the Bonferroni inequality limits the number of system designs that can be reasonably compared to about ve designs or less. This is because
controlling the overall signicance level for the test requires the assignment
of small values to the individual signicance levels (1 = 2 = 3 = = m )
if more than ve designs are compared. This presents a problem because the width
of a condence interval quickly increases as the level of signicance is reduced.
Recall that the width of a condence interval provides a measure of the accuracy
of the estimate. Therefore, we pay for gains in the overall condence of our test by
reducing the accuracy of our individual estimates (wide condence intervals).
When accurate estimates (tight condence intervals) are desired, we recommend
not using the Bonferroni approach when comparing more than ve system designs.
For comparing more than ve system designs, we recommend that the analysis of
variance technique be used in conjunction with perhaps the Fishers least signicant difference test. These methods are presented in Section 10.4.2.
Lets return to the buffer allocation example from the previous section and
apply the Bonferroni approach using paired-t condence intervals. In this case,
the production control staff has devised three buffer allocation strategies to compare. And, as before, we wish to determine if there are signicant differences
between the throughput levels (number of parts completed per hour) achieved
by the strategies. Although we will be working with individual condence
intervals, the hypotheses for the overall level of signicance are
H0 : 1 = 2 = 3 =
H1 : 1 =

2 or 1
= 3 or 2
= 3
where the subscripts 1, 2, and 3 denote Strategy 1, Strategy 2, and Strategy 3,
respectively.
To evaluate these hypotheses, we estimated the performance of the three
strategies by simulating the use of each strategy for 16 days (24 hours per day)
past the warm-up period. And, as before, the simulation was replicated 10 times
for each strategy. The average hourly throughput achieved by each strategy is
shown in Table 10.3.
The evaluation of the three buffer allocation strategies (K = 3) requires
that three [3(3 1)/2] pairwise comparisons be made. The three pairwise

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TABLE 10.3 Comparison of Three Buffer Allocation Strategies (K = 3)

Based on Paired Differences
(A)
Rep.
(j)

(B)
Strategy 1
Throughput
x1 j

(C)
Strategy 2
Throughput
x2 j

(D)
Strategy 3
Throughput
x3 j

(E)
Difference (B C)
Strategy 1 Strategy 2

(F)
Difference (B D)
Strategy 1 Strategy 3

(G)
Difference (C D)
Strategy 2 Strategy 3

x(12) j

x(13) j

x(23) j

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

54.48
57.36
54.81
56.20
54.83
57.69
58.33
57.19
56.84
55.29

56.01
54.08
52.14
53.49
55.49
55.00
54.88
54.47
54.93
55.84

57.22
56.95
58.30
56.11
57.00
57.83
56.99
57.64
58.07
57.81

1.53
3.28
2.67
2.71
0.66
2.69
3.45
2.72
1.91
0.55

2.74
0.41
3.49
0.09
2.17
0.14
1.34
0.45
1.23
2.52

1.21
2.87
6.16
2.62
1.51
2.83
2.11
3.17
3.14
1.97

1.67
1.85

1.09
1.58

2.76
1.37

x(ii  ) , for all i and i  between 1 and 3, with i < i 

s(ii  ) , for all i and i  between 1 and 3, with i < i 

comparisons are shown in columns E, F, and G of Table 10.3. Also shown in Table
10.3 are the sample means x(ii  ) and sample standard deviations s(ii  ) for each
pairwise comparison.
Lets say that we wish to use an overall signicance level of = 0.06 to evaluate our hypotheses. For the individual levels of signicance, lets set 1 = 2 =
3 = 0.02 by using the equation
i =

0.06

=
= 0.02
3
3

for i = 1, 2, 3

The computation of the three paired-t condence intervals using the method outlined in Section 10.3.2 and data from Table 10.3 follows:
Comparing (12) : 1 = 0.02
tn1,1 /2 = t9,0.01 = 2.821 from Appendix B
(t9,0.01 )s(12)
(2.821)1.85
=

n
10
hw = 1.65 parts per hour
hw =

The approximate 98 percent condence interval is

x(12) hw (12) x(12) + hw
1.67 1.65 (12) 1.67 + 1.65
0.02 (12) 3.32

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Comparing (13) : 2 = 0.02

tn1,2 /2 = t9,0.01 = 2.821 from Appendix B
(t9,0.01 )s(13)
(2.821)1.58
=

n
10
hw = 1.41 parts per hour

hw =

The approximate 98 percent condence interval is

x(13) hw (13) x(13) + hw
1.09 1.41 (13) 1.09 + 1.41
2.50 (13) 0.32
Comparing (23) : The approximate 98 percent condence interval is
3.98 (23) 1.54
Given that the condence interval about (12) excludes zero, we conclude
that there is a signicant difference in the mean throughput produced by Strategies 1 (1 ) and 2 (2 ). The condence interval further suggests that the mean
throughput 1 of Strategy 1 is higher than the mean throughput 2 of Strategy 2
(an estimated 0.02 parts per hour to 3.32 parts per hour higher). This conclusion
should not be surprising because we concluded that Strategy 1 resulted in a higher
throughput than Strategy 2 earlier in Sections 10.3.1 and 10.3.2. However, notice
that this condence interval is wider than the one computed in Section 10.3.2 for
comparing Strategy 1 to Strategy 2 using the same data. This is because the earlier
condence interval was based on a signicance level of 0.05 and this one is based
on a signicance level of 0.02. Notice that we went from using t9,0.025 = 2.262
for the paired-t condence interval in Section 10.3.2 to t9,0.01 = 2.821 for this
condence interval, which increased the width of the interval to the point that it is
very close to including zero.
Given that the condence interval about (13) includes zero, we conclude
that there is no signicant difference in the mean throughput produced by Strategies 1 (1 ) and 3 (3 ). And from the nal condence interval about (23) , we
conclude that there is a signicant difference in the mean throughput produced by
Strategies 2 (2 ) and 3 (3 ). This condence interval suggests that the throughput of Strategy 3 is higher than the throughput of Strategy 2 (an estimated 1.54
parts per hour to 3.98 parts per hour higher).
Recall that our overall condence for these conclusions is approximately
94 percent. Based on these results, we may be inclined to believe that Strategy 2
is the least favorable with respect to mean throughput while Strategies 1 and 3 are
the most favorable with respect to mean throughput. Additionally, the difference
in the mean throughput of Strategy 1 and Strategy 3 is not signicant. Therefore,
we recommend that you implement Strategy 3 in place of your own Strategy 1
because Strategy 3 was the bosss idea.
In this case, the statistical assumptions for using the Bonferroni approach are
the same as for the paired-t condence interval. Because we used the Students t

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distribution to build the condence intervals, the observations in the Throughput

Difference columns of Table 10.3 must be independent and normally distributed.
It is reasonable to assume that these two assumptions are satised here for the
Bonferroni test using the same logic presented at the conclusion of Section 10.3.2
for the paired-t condence interval.

10.4.2 Advanced Statistical Models for Comparing

More Than Two Alternative Systems
Analysis of variance (ANOVA) in conjunction with a multiple comparison test
provides a means for comparing a much larger number of alternative system designs than does the Welch condence interval, paired-t condence interval, or
Bonferroni approach. The major benet that the ANOVA procedure has over the
Bonferroni approach is that the overall condence level of the test of hypothesis does not decrease as the number of candidate system designs increases.
There are entire textbooks devoted to ANOVA and multiple comparison tests
used for a wide range of experimental designs. However, we will limit our focus
to using these techniques for comparing the performance of multiple system
designs. As with the Bonferroni approach, we are interested in evaluating the
hypotheses
H0 : 1 = 2 = 3 = = K =
H1 : i =

i 

for K alternative systems

for at least one pair i
= i 

where i and i  are between 1 and K and i < i  . After dening some new terminology, we will formulate the hypotheses differently to conform to the statistical
model used in this section.
An experimental unit is the system to which treatments are applied. The simulation model of the production system is the experimental unit for the buffer
allocation example. A treatment is a generic term for a variable of interest and a
factor is a category of the treatment. We will consider only the single-factor case
with K levels. Each factor level corresponds to a different system design. For the
buffer allocation example, there are three factor levelsStrategy 1, Strategy 2,
and Strategy 3. Treatments are applied to the experimental unit by running the
simulation model with a specied factor level (strategy).
An experimental design is a plan that causes a systematic and efcient application of treatments to an experimental unit. We will consider the completely
randomized (CR) designthe simplest experimental design. The primary assumption required for the CR design is that experimental units (simulation models)
are homogeneous with respect to the response (models output) before the treatment is applied. For simulation experiments, this is usually the case because a
models logic should remain constant except to change the level of the factor
under investigation. We rst specify a test of hypothesis and signicance level,
say an value of 0.05, before running experiments. The null hypothesis for the
buffer allocation problem would be that the mean throughputs due to the application of treatments (Strategies 1, 2, and 3) do not differ. The alternate hypothesis

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TABLE 10.4 Experimental Results and Summary Statistics

for a Balanced Experimental Design

Replication (j)

Strategy 1
Throughput
(x1 j )

Strategy 2
Throughput
(x2 j )

Strategy 3
Throughput
(x3 j )

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

54.48
57.36
54.81
56.20
54.83
57.69
58.33
57.19
56.84
55.29

56.01
54.08
52.14
53.49
55.49
55.00
54.88
54.47
54.93
55.84

57.22
56.95
58.30
56.11
57.00
57.83
56.99
57.64
58.07
57.81

563.02

546.33

573.92

56.30

54.63

57.39

Sum xi =

n

j=1 xi j

10

j=1 xi j , for

n
Sample mean xi =

j=1 xi j

i = 1, 2, 3

10
=

j=1 xi j

10

, for i = 1, 2, 3

states that the mean throughputs due to the application of treatments (Strategies 1,
2, and 3) differ among at least one pair of strategies.
We will use a balanced CR design to help us conduct this test of hypothesis.
In a balanced design, the same number of observations are collected for each factor level. Therefore, we executed 10 simulation runs to produce 10 observations
of throughput for each strategy. Table 10.4 presents the experimental results and
summary statistics for this problem. The response variable (xi j ) is the observed
throughput for the treatment (strategy). The subscript i refers to the factor level
(Strategy 1, 2, or 3) and j refers to an observation (output from replication j) for
that factor level. For example, the mean throughput response of the simulation
model for the seventh replication of Strategy 2 is 54.88 in Table 10.4. Parameters
for this balanced CR design are
Number of factor levels = number of alternative system designs = K = 3
Number of observations for each factor level = n = 10
Total number of observations = N = n K = (10)3 = 30
Inspection of the summary statistics presented in Table 10.4 indicates that
Strategy 3 produced the highest mean throughput and Strategy 2 the lowest.
Again, we should not jump to conclusions without a careful analysis of the
experimental data. Therefore, we will use analysis of variance (ANOVA) in conjunction with a multiple comparison test to guide our decision.
Analysis of Variance
Analysis of variance (ANOVA) allows us to partition the total variation in the output response from the simulated system into two componentsvariation due to

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the effect of the treatments and variation due to experimental error (the inherent
variability in the simulated system). For this problem case, we are interested in
knowing if the variation due to the treatment is sufcient to conclude that the performance of one strategy is signicantly different than the other with respect to
mean throughput of the system. We assume that the observations are drawn from
normally distributed populations and that they are independent within a strategy
and between strategies. Therefore, the variance reduction technique based on
common random numbers (CRN) presented in Section 10.5 cannot be used with
this method.
The xed-effects model is the underlying linear statistical model used for the
analysis because the levels of the factor are xed and we will consider each possible factor level. The xed-effects model is written as

for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , K
xi j = + i + i j
for j = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n
where i is the effect of the ith treatment (ith strategy in our example) as a deviation from the overall (common to all treatments) population mean and i j is the
error associated with this observation. In the context of simulation, the i j term
represents the random variation of the response xi j that occurred during the jth
replication of the ith treatment. Assumptions for the xed-effects model are that
the sum of all i equals zero and that the error terms i j are independent and normally distributed with a mean of zero and common variance. There are methods
for testing the reasonableness of the normality and common variance assumptions. However, the procedure presented in this section is reported to be somewhat
insensitive to small violations of these assumptions (Miller et al. 1990). Specically, for the buffer allocation example, we are testing the equality of three
treatment effects (Strategies 1, 2, and 3) to determine if there are statistically signicant differences among them. Therefore, our hypotheses are written as
H0 : 1 = 2 = 3 = 0
H1 : i =

0 for at least one i,

for i = 1, 2, 3

Basically, the previous null hypothesis that the K population means are
all equal (1 = 2 = 3 = = K = ) is replaced by the null hypothesis
1 = 2 = 3 = = K = 0 for the xed-effects model. Likewise, the alternative hypothesis that at least two of the population means are unequal is replaced
by i
= 0 for at least one i. Because only one factor is considered in this problem,
a simple one-way analysis of variance is used to determine FCALC, the test statistic that will be used for the hypothesis test. If the computed FCALC value exceeds
a threshold value called the critical value, denoted FCRITICAL, we shall reject the
null hypothesis that states that the treatment effects do not differ and conclude that
there are statistically signicant differences among the treatments (strategies in
our example problem).
To help us with the hypothesis test, lets summarize the experimental results
shown in Table 10.4 for the example problem. The rst summary statistic that we
will compute is called the sum of squares (SSi) and is calculated for the ANOVA
for each factor level (Strategies 1, 2, and 3 in this case). In a balanced design

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where the number of observations n for each factor level is a constant, the sum of
squares is calculated using the formula
n
2



x
i
j
j=1
n
2
SSi =
for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , K
j=1 x i j
n
For this example, the sums of squares are
10
2



j=1 x 1 j
10
2
SS1 =
j=1 x 1 j
10
SS1 = [(54.48)2 + (57.36)2 + + (55.29)2 ]

(563.02)2
= 16.98
10

SS2 = 12.23
SS3 = 3.90
The grand total of the N observations (N = n K ) collected from the output response of the simulated system is computed by
Grand total = x.. =

 K n
i=1

j=1

xi j =

K
i=1

xi

The overall mean of the N observations collected from the output response of
the simulated system is computed by
 K n
x..
i=1
j=1 x i j
Overall mean = x..
=
=
N
N
Using the data in Table 10.4 for the buffer allocation example, these statistics are
Grand total = x.. =

3
i=1

xi = 563.02 + 546.33 + 573.92 = 1,683.27

Overall mean = x..

=

x..
1,683.27
=
= 56.11
N
30

Our analysis is simplied because a balanced design was used (equal observations for each factor level). We are now ready to dene the computational
formulas for the ANOVA table elements (for a balanced design) needed to
conduct the hypothesis test. As we do, we will construct the ANOVA table for the
buffer allocation example. The computational formulas for the ANOVA table
elements are
Degrees of freedom total (corrected) = df(total corrected) = N 1
= 30 1 = 29
Degrees of freedom treatment = df(treatment) = K 1 = 3 1 = 2
Degrees of freedom error = df(error) = N K = 30 3 = 27

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and
Sum of squares error = SSE =

K
i=1

Sum of squares treatment = SST =

SST =

SSi = 16.98 + 12.23 + 3.90 = 33.11

1
n



K


2
x
i=1 i

x..2
K



(1,683.27)2
1
= 38.62
((563.02)2 + (546.33)2 + (573.92)2 )
3
10

Sum of squares total (corrected) = SSTC = SST + SSE

= 38.62 + 33.11 = 71.73
and
Mean square treatment = MST =
Mean square error = MSE =

SST
38.62
=
= 19.31
df(treatment)
2

SSE
33.11
=
= 1.23
df(error)
27

and nally
Calculated F statistic = FCALC =

MST
19.31
=
= 15.70
MSE
1.23

Table 10.5 presents the ANOVA table for this problem. We will compare the value
of FCALC with a value from the F table in Appendix C to determine whether to
reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis H0 : 1 = 2 = 3 = 0. The values
obtained from the F table in Appendix C are referred to as critical values and
are determined by F(df(treatment), df(error); ). For this problem, F(2,27; 0.05) = 3.35 =
FCRITICAL , using a signicance level () of 0.05. Therefore, we will reject H0 since
FCALC > FCRITICAL at the = 0.05 level of signicance. If we believe the data in
Table 10.4 satisfy the assumptions of the xed-effects model, then we would conclude that the buffer allocation strategy (treatment) signicantly affects the mean

TABLE 10.5 Analysis of Variance Table

Source of
Variation

Degrees of
Freedom

Sum of
Squares

Mean
Square

Total (corrected)
Treatment (strategies)
Error

N 1 = 29
K1=2
N K = 27

SSTC = 71.73
SST = 38.62
SSE = 33.11

MST = 19.31
MSE = 1.23

FCALC
15.70

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throughput of the system. We now have evidence that at least one strategy produces
better results than the other strategies. Next, a multiple comparison test will be
conducted to determine which strategy (or strategies) causes the signicance.
Multiple Comparison Test
Our nal task is to conduct a multiple comparison test. The hypothesis test suggested that not all strategies are the same with respect to throughput, but it did not
identify which strategies performed differently. We will use Fishers least signicant difference (LSD) test to identify which strategies performed differently. It is
generally recommended to conduct a hypothesis test prior to the LSD test to determine if one or more pairs of treatments are signicantly different. If the hypothesis test failed to reject the null hypothesis, suggesting that all i were the
same, then the LSD test would not be performed. Likewise, if we reject the null
hypothesis, we should then perform the LSD test. Because we rst performed a
hypothesis test, the subsequent LSD test is often called a protected LSD test.
The LSD test requires the calculation of a test statistic used to evaluate all
pairwise comparisons of the sample mean from each population (x1 , x2 ,
x3 , . . . , x K ). In our example buffer allocation problem, we are dealing with the
sample mean throughput computed from the output of our simulation models for
the three strategies (x1 , x2 , x3 ). Therefore, we will make three pairwise comparisons of the sample means for our example, recalling that the number of pairwise
comparisons for K candidate designs is computed by K (K 1)/2. The LSD test
statistic is calculated as

2(MSE)
LSD() = t(df(error),/2)
n
The decision rule states that if the difference in the sample mean response values
exceeds the LSD test statistic, then the population mean response values are signicantly different at a given level of signicance. Mathematically, the decision
rule is written as
If |xi xi  | > LSD(), then i and i  are signicantly different at the
level of signicance.
For this problem, the LSD test statistic is determined at the = 0.05 level of
signicance:


2(MSE)
2(1.23)
LSD(0.05) = t27,0.025
= 2.052
= 1.02
n
10
Table 10.6 presents the results of the three pairwise comparisons for the LSD
analysis. With 95 percent condence, we conclude that each pair of means is different (1
= 2 , 1
= 3 , and 2
= 3 ). We may be inclined to believe that the
best strategy is Strategy 3, the second best strategy is Strategy 1, and the worst
strategy is Strategy 2.
Recall that the Bonferroni approach in Section 10.4.1 did not detect a signicant difference between Strategy 1 (1 ) and Strategy 3 (3 ). One possible

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TABLE 10.6 LSD Analysis

Strategy 2
x2 = 54.63

Strategy 1
x1 = 56.30

Strategy 3
x3 = 57.39

|x2 x3 | = 2.76
Signicant
(2.76 > 1.02)

|x1 x3 | = 1.09
Signicant
(1.09 > 1.02)

Strategy 1
x1 = 56.30

|x1 x2 | = 1.67
Signicant
(1.67 > 1.02)

explanation is that the LSD test is considered to be more liberal in that it will indicate a difference before the more conservative Bonferroni approach. Perhaps if
the paired-t condence intervals had been used in conjunction with common
random numbers (which is perfectly acceptable because the paired-t method
does not require that observations be independent between populations), then the
Bonferroni approach would have also indicated a difference. We are not suggesting here that the Bonferroni approach is in error (or that the LSD test is in
error). It could be that there really is no difference between the performances of
Strategy 1 and Strategy 3 or that we have not collected enough observations to
be conclusive.
There are several multiple comparison tests from which to choose. Other
tests include Tukeys honestly signicant difference (HSD) test, Bayes LSD
(BLSD) test, and a test by Scheffe. The LSD and BLSD tests are considered to be
liberal in that they will indicate a difference between i and i  before the more
conservative Scheffe test. A book by Petersen (1985) provides more information
on multiple comparison tests.

10.4.3 Factorial Design and Optimization

In simulation experiments, we are sometimes interested in nding out how different decision variable settings impact the response of the system rather than simply
comparing one candidate system to another. For example, we may want to measure
how the mean time a customer waits in a bank changes as the number of tellers (the
decision variable) is increased from 1 through 10. There are often many decision
variables of interest for complex systems. And rather than run hundreds of experiments for every possible variable setting, experimental design techniques can be
used as a shortcut for nding those decision variables of greatest signicance (the
variables that signicantly inuence the output of the simulation model). Using experimental design terminology, decision variables are referred to as factors and the
output measures are referred to as responses (Figure 10.3). Once the response of interest has been identied and the factors that are suspected of having an inuence
on this response dened, we can use a factorial design method that prescribes how
many runs to make and what level or value to use for each factor.

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FIGURE 10.3
Relationship between
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variables) and output
responses.

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Factors (X1, X2, . . . , Xn)

Simulation

Output responses

model

The natural inclination when experimenting with multiple factors is to test

the impact that each individual factor has on system response. This is a simple and
straightforward approach, but it gives the experimenter no knowledge of how factors interact with each other. It should be obvious that experimenting with two or
more factors together can affect system response differently than experimenting
with only one factor at a time and keeping all other factors the same.
One type of experiment that looks at the combined effect of multiple factors on
system response is referred to as a two-level, full-factorial design. In this type of experiment, we simply dene a high and a low setting for each factor and, since it is a
full-factorial experiment, we try every combination of factor settings. This means
that if there are ve factors and we are testing two different levels for each factor,
we would test each of the 25 = 32 possible combinations of high and low factor
levels. For factors that have no range of values from which a high and a low can be
chosen, the high and low levels are arbitrarily selected. For example, if one of the
factors being investigated is an operating policy (like rst come, rst served or last
come, last served), we arbitrarily select one of the alternative policies as the highlevel setting and a different one as the low-level setting.
For experiments in which a large number of factors are considered, a twolevel, full-factorial design would result in an extremely large number of combinations to test. In this type of situation, a fractional-factorial design is used to strategically select a subset of combinations to test in order to screen out factors with
little or no impact on system performance. With the remaining reduced number of
factors, more detailed experimentation such as a full-factorial experiment can be
conducted in a more manageable fashion.
After fractional-factorial experiments and even two-level, full-factorial experiments have been performed to identify the most signicant factor level combinations, it is often desirable to conduct more detailed experiments, perhaps over
the entire range of values, for those factors that have been identied as being the
most signicant. This provides more precise information for making decisions regarding the best, or optimal, factor values or variable settings for the system. For
a more detailed treatment of factorial design in simulation experimentation, see
Law and Kelton (2000).
In many cases, the number of factors of interest prohibits the use of even
fractional-factorial designs because of the many combinations to test. If this is
the case and you are seeking the best, or optimal, factor values for a system, an
alternative is to employ an optimization technique to search for the best combination of values. Several optimization techniques are useful for searching for the
combination that produces the most desirable response from the simulation model
without evaluating all possible combinations. This is the subject of simulation optimization and is discussed in Chapter 11.

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10.5 Variance Reduction Techniques

One luxury afforded to model builders is that the variance of a performance measure computed from the output of simulations can be reduced. This is a luxury because reducing the variance allows us to estimate the mean value of a random
variable within a desired level of precision and condence with fewer replications
(independent observations). The reduction in the required number of replications
is achieved by controlling how random numbers are used to drive the events in
the simulation model. These time-saving techniques are called variance reduction
techniques. The use of common random numbers (CRN) is perhaps one of the
most popular variance reduction techniques. This section provides an introduction
to the CRN technique, presents an example application of CRN, and discusses
how CRN works. For additional details about CRN and a review of other variance
reduction techniques, see Law and Kelton (2000).

10.5.1 Common Random Numbers

The common random numbers (CRN) technique was invented for comparing
alternative system designs. Recall the proposed buffer allocation strategies for the
production system presented in Section 10.2. The objective was to decide which
strategy yielded the highest throughput for the production system. The CRN technique was not used to compare the performance of the strategies using the paired-t
condence interval method in Section 10.3.2. However, it would have been a good
idea because the CRN technique provides a means for comparing alternative
system designs under more equal experimental conditions. This is helpful in
ensuring that the observed differences in the performance of two system designs
are due to the differences in the designs and not to differences in experimental
conditions. The goal is to evaluate each system under the exact same circumstances
to ensure a fair comparison.
Suppose a system is simulated to measure the mean time that entities wait in
a queue for service under different service policies. The mean time between
arrivals of entities to the system is exponentially distributed with a mean of
5.5 minutes. The exponentially distributed variates are generated using a stream
of numbers that are uniformly distributed between zero and 1, having been produced by the random number generator. (See Chapter 3 for a discussion on generating random numbers and random variates.) If a particular segment of the
random number stream resulted in several small time values being drawn from the
exponential distribution, then entities would arrive to the system faster. This
would place a heavier workload on the workstation servicing the entities, which
would tend to increase how long entities wait for service. Therefore, the simulation of each policy should be driven by the same stream of random numbers to ensure that the differences in the mean waiting times are due only to differences in
the policies and not because some policies were simulated with a stream of random numbers that produced more extreme conditions.

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FIGURE 10.4
Unique seed value
assigned for each
replication.

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Stream
Rep.1
Seed 9
.83
.
.
.
.12
Rep. 2
Seed 5
.93
.
.
.
.79
Rep. 3
Seed 3
.28
.
.
.

Distributions for arrival times, service times, and so on

Simulation models for each alternative

The goal is to use the exact random number from the stream for the exact
purpose in each simulated system. To help achieve this goal, the random number
stream can be seeded at the beginning of each independent replication to keep it
synchronized across simulations of each system. For example, in Figure 10.4, the
rst replication starts with a seed value of 9, the second replication starts with a
seed value of 5, the third with 3, and so on. If the same seed values for each replication are used to simulate each alternative system, then the same stream of random numbers will drive each of the systems. This seems simple enough. However, care has to be taken not to pick a seed value that places us in a location on
the stream that has already been used to drive the simulation in a previous replication. If this were to happen, the results from replicating the simulation of a system would not be independent because segments of the random number stream
would have been shared between replications, and this cannot be tolerated.
Therefore, some simulation software provides a CRN option that, when selected,

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automatically assigns seed values to each replication to minimize the likelihood

of this happening.
A common practice that helps to keep random numbers synchronized across
systems is to assign a different random number stream to each stochastic element
in the model. For this reason, most simulation software provides several unique
streams of uniformly distributed random numbers to drive the simulation. This
concept is illustrated in Figure 10.5 in that separate random number streams are
used to generate service times at each of the four machines. If an alternative
design for the system was the addition of a fth machine, the effects of adding the
fth machine could be measured while holding the behavior of the original four
machines constant.
In ProModel, up to 100 streams (1 through 100) are available to assign to any
random variable specied in the model. Each stream can have one of 100 different initial seed values assigned to it. Each seed number starts generating random
numbers at an offset of 100,000 from the previous seed number (seed 1 generates
100,000 random numbers before it catches up to the starting point in the cycle of
seed 2). For most simulations, this ensures that streams do not overlap. If you do

FIGURE 10.5
Unique random
number stream
assigned to each
stochastic element
in system.

Stream 1

Stream 2

Stream 5

Stream 7

Rep. 1
Seed 99
.83
.
.
.

Rep. 1
Seed 51
.27
.
.
.

Rep. 1
Seed 89
.56
.
.
.

Rep. 1
Seed 67
.25
.
.
.

.12

.19

.71

.99

Rep. 2
Seed 75
.93
.
.
.

Rep. 2
Seed 33
.87
.
.
.

Rep. 2
Seed 7
.45
.
.
.

Rep. 2
Seed 23
.69
.
.
.

.79

.35

.74

.42

Rep. 3
Seed 3
.28
.
.
.

Rep. 3
Seed 79
.21
.
.
.

Rep. 3
Seed 49
.53
.
.
.

Rep. 3
Seed 13
.82
.
.
.

Service time
distribution

Machine
1

Service time
distribution

Machine
2

Service time
distribution

Machine
3

Machine
4

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not specify an initial seed value for a stream that is used, ProModel will use the
same seed number as the stream number (stream 3 uses the third seed). A detailed
explanation of how random number generators work and how they produce
unique streams of random numbers is provided in Chapter 3.
Complete synchronization of the random numbers across different models is
sometimes difcult to achieve. Therefore, we often settle for partial synchronization. At the very least, it is a good idea to set up two streams with one stream
of random numbers used to generate an entitys arrival pattern and the other
stream of random numbers used to generate all other activities in the model.
That way, activities added to the model will not inadvertently alter the arrival
pattern because they do not affect the sample values generated from the arrival
distribution.

10.5.2 Example Use of Common Random Numbers

In this section the buffer allocation problem of Section 10.2 will be simulated
using CRN. Recall that the amount of time to process an entity at each machine is
a random variable. Therefore, a unique random number stream will be used to
draw samples from the processing time distributions for each machine. There is no
need to generate an arrival pattern for parts (entities) because it is assumed that a
part (entity) is always available for processing at the rst machine. Therefore, the
assignment of random number streams is similar to that depicted in Figure 10.5.
Next, we will use the paired-t condence interval to compare the two competing
buffer allocation strategies identied by the production control staff. Also, note
that the common random numbers technique can be used with the Bonferroni
approach when paired-t condence intervals are used.
There are two buffer allocation strategies, and the objective is to determine if
one strategy results in a signicantly different average throughput (number of
parts completed per hour). Specically, we will test at an = 0.05 level of signicance the following hypotheses:
H0 : 1 2 = 0
H1 : 1 2
= 0

or using the paired notation (12) = 0

or using the paired notation (12)
= 0

where the subscripts 1 and 2 denote Strategy 1 and Strategy 2, respectively. As

before, each strategy is evaluated by simulating the system for 16 days (24 hours
per day) past the warm-up period. For each strategy, the experiment is replicated
10 times. The only difference is that we have assigned individual random number
streams to each process and have selected seed values for each replication. This
way, both buffer allocation strategies will be simulated using identical streams of
random numbers. The average hourly throughput achieved by each strategy is
paired by replication as shown in Table 10.7.
Using the equations of Section 10.3.2 and an = 0.05 level of signicance,
a paired-t condence interval using the data from Table 10.7 can be constructed:
x(12) = 2.67 parts per hour
s(12) = 1.16 parts per hour

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TABLE 10.7 Comparison of Two Buffer Allocation Strategies

Using Common Random Numbers
(A)

(B)

(C)

Replication (j)

Strategy 1
Throughput x1 j

Strategy 2
Throughput x2 j

(D)
Throughput
Difference (B C)
x(12) j = x1 j x2 j

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

79.05
54.96
51.23
88.74
56.43
70.42
35.71
58.12
57.77
45.08

75.09
51.09
49.09
88.01
53.34
67.54
34.87
54.24
55.03
42.55

3.96
3.87
2.14
0.73
3.09
2.88
0.84
3.88
2.74
2.53

Sample mean x(12)

Sample standard deviation s(12)
2
Sample variance s(12)

2.67
1.16
1.35

and
hw =

(t9,0.025 )s(12)
(2.262)1.16
=
= 0.83 parts per hour

n
10

where tn1,/2 = t9,0.025 = 2.262 is determined from the Students t table in

Appendix B. The 95 percent condence interval is
x(12) hw (12) x(12) + hw
2.67 0.83 (12) 2.67 + 0.83
1.84 (12) 3.50
With approximately 95 percent condence, we conclude that there is a signicant
difference between the mean throughputs of the two strategies because the interval
excludes zero. The condence interval further suggests that the mean throughput
1 of Strategy 1 is higher than the mean throughput 2 of Strategy 2 (an estimated
1.84 to 3.50 parts per hour higher).
The interesting point here is that the half-width of the condence interval
computed from the CRN observations is considerably shorter than the half-width
computed in Section 10.3.2 without using CRN. In fact, the half-width using CRN
is approximately 37 percent shorter. This is due to the reduction in the sample
standard deviation s(12) . Thus we have a more precise estimate of the true mean
difference without making additional replications. This is the benet of using
variance reduction techniques.

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10.5.3 Why Common Random Numbers Work

Using CRN does not actually reduce the variance of the output from the simulation model. It is the variance of the observations in the Throughput Difference
column (column D) in Table 10.7 that is reduced. This happened because the observations in the Strategy 1 column are positively correlated with the observations
in the Strategy 2 column. This resulted from driving the two simulated systems
with exactly the same (or as close as possible) stream of random numbers. The
effect of the positive correlation is that the variance of the observations in the
Throughput Difference column will be reduced.
Although the observations between the strategy columns are correlated, the
observations down a particular strategys column are independent. Therefore, the
observations in the Throughput Difference column are also independent. This is
because each replication is based on a different segment of the random number
stream. Thus the independence assumption for the paired-t condence interval
still holds. Note, however, that you cannot use data produced by using CRN to
calculate the Welch condence interval or to conduct an analysis of variance.
These procedures require that the observations between populations (the strategy
columns in this case) be independent, which they are not when the CRN technique
is used.
As the old saying goes, there is no such thing as a free lunch, and there is a
hitch with using CRN. Sometimes the use of CRN can produce the opposite effect
and increase the sample standard deviation of the observations in the Throughput
Difference column. Without working through the mathematics, know that this
occurs when a negative correlation is created between the observations from each
system instead of a positive correlation. Unfortunately, there is really no way of
knowing beforehand if this will happen. However, the likelihood of realizing a
negative correlation in practice is low, so the ticket to success lies in your ability
to synchronize the random numbers. If good synchronization is achieved, then
the desired result of reducing the standard deviation of the observations in the
Difference column will likely be realized.

10.6 Summary
An important point to make here is that simulation, by itself, does not solve a
problem. Simulation merely provides a means to evaluate proposed solutions by
estimating how they behave. The user of the simulation model has the responsibility to generate candidate solutions either manually or by use of automatic
optimization techniques and to correctly measure the utility of the solutions based
on the output from the simulation. This chapter presented several statistical
methods for comparing the output produced by simulation models representing
candidate solutions or designs.
When comparing two candidate system designs, we recommend using either
the Welch condence interval method or the paired-t condence interval. Also, a

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variance reduction technique based on common random numbers can be used in

conjunction with the paired-t condence interval to improve the precision of the
condence interval. When comparing between three and ve candidate system
designs, the Bonferroni approach is useful. For more than ve designs, the
ANOVA procedure in conjunction with Fishers least signicance difference test
is a good choice, assuming that the population variances are approximately equal.
Additional methods useful for comparing the output produced by different simulation models can be found in Goldsman and Nelson (1998).

10.7 Review Questions

1. The following simulation output was generated to compare four
candidate designs of a system.
a. Use the paired-t condence interval method to compare Design 1 with
Design 3 using a 0.05 level of signicance. What is your conclusion?
What statistical assumptions did you make to use the paired-t
condence interval method?
b. Use the Bonferroni approach with Welch condence intervals to
compare all four designs using a 0.06 overall level of signicance.
What are your conclusions? What statistical assumptions did you
make to use the Bonferroni approach?
c. Use a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with = 0.05 to
determine if there is a signicant difference between the designs.
What is your conclusion? What statistical assumptions did you make
to use the one-way ANOVA?

Waiting Time in System

Replication

Design 1

Design 2

Design 3

Design 4

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

53.9872
58.4636
55.5300
56.3602
53.8864
57.2620
56.9196
55.7004
55.3685
56.9589
55.0892
55.4580

58.1365
57.6060
58.5968
55.9631
58.3555
57.0748
56.0899
59.8942
57.5491
58.0945
59.2632
57.4509

58.5438
57.3973
57.1040
58.7105
58.0406
56.9654
57.2882
57.3548
58.2188
59.5975
60.5354
57.9982

60.1208
59.6515
60.5279
58.1981
60.3144
59.1815
58.3103
61.6756
59.6011
60.0836
61.1175
59.5142

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2. Why is the Bonferroni approach to be avoided when comparing more

than about ve alternative designs of a system?
3. What is a Type I error in hypothesis testing?
4. What is the relationship between a Type I and a Type II error?
5. How do common random numbers reduce variation when comparing
two models?
6. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) allows us to partition the total variation in
the output from a simulation model into two components. What are they?
7. Why can common random numbers not be used if the Welch condence
interval method is used?

References
Banks, Jerry; John S. Carson; Berry L. Nelson; and David M. Nicol. Discrete-Event System Simulation. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2001.
Bateman, Robert E.; Royce O. Bowden; Thomas J. Gogg; Charles R. Harrell; and Jack
R. A. Mott. System Improvement Using Simulation. Orem, UT: PROMODEL Corp.,
1997.
Goldsman, David, and Berry L. Nelson. Comparing Systems via Simulation. Chapter 8
in Handbook of Simulation. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1998.
Hines, William W., and Douglas C. Montgomery. Probability and Statistics in Engineering
and Management Science. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1990.
Hoover, Stewart V., and Ronald F. Perry. Simulation: A Problem-Solving Approach.
Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1989.
Law, Averill M., and David W. Kelton. Simulation Modeling and Analysis. New York:
McGraw-Hill, 2000.
Miller, Irwin R.; John E. Freund; and Richard Johnson. Probability and Statistics for
Engineers. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1990.
Miller, Rupert G. Beyond ANOVA, Basics of Applied Statistics, New York: Wiley, 1986.
Montgomery, Douglas C. Design and Analysis of Experiments. New York: John Wiley &
Sons, 1991.
Petersen, Roger G. Design and Analysis of Experiments. New York: Marcel Dekker, 1985.

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11. Simulation Optimization

11 SIMULATION
OPTIMIZATION

Man is a goal seeking animal. His life only has meaning if he is reaching out
and striving for his goals.
Aristotle

11.1 Introduction
Simulation models of systems are built for many reasons. Some models are built
to gain a better understanding of a system, to forecast the output of a system, or to
compare one system to another. If the reason for building simulation models is to
nd answers to questions like What are the optimal settings for
to minimize (or maximize)
? then optimization is the appropriate technology to
combine with simulation. Optimization is the process of trying different combinations of values for the variables that can be controlled to seek the combination of
values that provides the most desirable output from the simulation model.
For convenience, let us think of the simulation model as a black box that
imitates the actual system. When inputs are presented to the black box, it produces
output that estimates how the actual system responds. In our question, the rst
blank represents the inputs to the simulation model that are controllable by the
decision maker. These inputs are often called decision variables or factors. The
second blank represents the performance measures of interest that are computed
from the stochastic output of the simulation model when the decision variables are
set to specic values (Figure 11.1). In the question, What is the optimal number
of material handling devices needed to minimize the time that workstations are
starved for material? the decision variable is the number of material handling devices and the performance measure computed from the output of the simulation
model is the amount of time that workstations are starved. The objective, then, is
to seek the optimal value for each decision variable that minimizes, or maximizes,
the expected value of the performance measure(s) of interest. The performance
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FIGURE 11.1
Relationship between
optimization algorithm
and simulation model.

Optimization
algorithm

Decision variables (X1, X2, . . . , Xn)

Simulation
model

Output responses

measure is traditionally called the objective function. Note that the expected value
of the objective function is estimated by averaging the models output over multiple replications or batch intervals. The simulation optimization problem is more
formally stated as
Min or Max E[ f (X 1 , X 2 , . . . , X n )]
Subject to
Lower Boundi X i Upper Boundi

for i = 1, 2, . . . , n

where E[ f (X 1 , X 2 , . . . , X n )] denotes the expected value of the objective

function, which is estimated.
The search for the optimal solution can be conducted manually or automated
with algorithms specically designed to seek the optimal solution without evaluating all possible solutions. Interfacing optimization algorithms that can automatically generate solutions and evaluate them in simulation models is a worthwhile
endeavor because
It automates part of the analysis process, saving the analyst time.
A logical method is used to efciently explore the realm of possible
solutions, seeking the best.
The method often nds several exemplary solutions for the analyst to
consider.
The latter is particularly important because, within the list of optimized solutions,
there may be solutions that the decision maker may have otherwise overlooked.
In 1995, PROMODEL Corporation and Decision Science, Incorporated,
developed SimRunner based on the research of Bowden (1992) on the use of
modern optimization algorithms for simulation-based optimization and machine
learning. SimRunner helps those wishing to use advanced optimization concepts
to seek better solutions from their simulation models. SimRunner uses an optimization method based on evolutionary algorithms. It is the rst widely used,
commercially available simulation optimization package designed for major simulation packages (ProModel, MedModel, ServiceModel, and ProcessModel).
Although SimRunner is relatively easy to use, it can be more effectively used with
a basic understanding of how it seeks optimal solutions to a problem. Therefore,
the purpose of this chapter is fourfold:
To provide an introduction to simulation optimization, focusing on the
latest developments in integrating simulation and a class of direct
optimization techniques called evolutionary algorithms.

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To give the reader an appreciation of the advantages and disadvantages

of using evolutionary algorithms for optimizing simulated systems.
To discuss tactical issues involved in the use of evolutionary algorithms
for simulation optimization.
To present examples highlighting how simulation optimization can help
analysts in their quest to identify optimal solutions.
There are many approaches to optimizing simulated systems other than those
based on evolutionary algorithms. For a more complete review of other approaches
to simulation optimization, see Azadivar (1992), Jacobson and Schruben (1989),
and Sazadeh (1990).

11.2 In Search of the Optimum

Finding the so-called optimal solution is not an easy task. In fact, it is somewhat
like nding a needle in a haystack. The surest way to nd the optimal solution is
to follow these steps (Akbay 1996):
Step 1. Identify all possible decision variables that affect the output of
the system.
Step 2. Based on the possible values of each decision variable, identify
all possible solutions.
Step 3. Evaluate each of these solutions accurately.
Step 4. Compare each solution fairly.
Step 5. Record the best answer.
If the output from the simulation model for all possible values of the decision
variables is recorded and plotted, the resulting plot would be called the response
surface. For problems involving only one or two decision variables, the optimal
solution can be identied quickly on the response surface. For example, the
optimal solution would be located at the highest peak on the response surface for a
maximization problem (Figure 11.2). However, it becomes difcult to view the
response surface when there are more than two decision variables. Additionally, in
many cases, there are simply too many solutions to evaluate (search through) in a
reasonable amount of time. Therefore, a balance must be struck between nding
the optimal solution and the amount of time to allocate to the search.
Fortunately, researchers have developed several optimization methods that
can nd the optimal solution for well-posed problems quickly without complete
enumeration of all possible alternatives. Example techniques include the NewtonRaphson method and linear programming. Unfortunately, most realistic problems
are not well posed and do not lend themselves to being solved by these optimization methods. For example, the response surfaces produced by stochastic simulation models can be highly nonlinear, multimodal, and noisy; can contain both
discrete and continuous decision variables; and may not provide independent and
identically distributed observations. However, many good heuristic optimization
techniques relax the requirement that problems be well posed.

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FIGURE 11.2
SimRunner plots the
output responses
generated by a
ProModel simulation
model as it seeks the
optimal solution,
which occurred at the
highest peak.

Heuristic techniques consistently provide good, or near optimal, solutions

within a reasonable amount of search time. In fact, the use of a heuristic technique
does not preclude the chance of nding the optimal solution. It may nd the
optimal solution, but there is no guarantee that it always will do so. For example,
the Nelder Mead Simplex Search technique (Nelder and Mead 1965) has been
extensively, and successfully, used for solving simulation optimization problems
(Barton and Ivey 1996). This technique often nds the optimal solution even
though there is no mathematical proof that it will converge to the optimal solution
for these types of problems.

11.3 Combining Direct Search Techniques with Simulation

Direct search techniques are a class of search techniques designed to seek optimal
values for the decision variables for a system so as to minimize, or maximize, the
output measure of interest from the system. These techniques work directly with
the output generated from the system of interest and require no additional information about the function that generates the output. They are ideally suited for
optimization tasks when mathematical models do not exist from which gradient
information can be computed to guide the search for the optimal solution or if the
cost of estimating the gradient is computationally prohibitive. Such is often the
case when dealing with stochastic simulation models.
Early on, researchers realized the benets of combining simulation and direct search techniques. For example, Pegden and Gately (1977) developed an

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optimization module for the GASP IV simulation software package. Pegden and
Gately (1980) later developed another optimization module for use with the
SLAM simulation software package. Their optimization packages were based on
a variant of a direct search method developed by Hooke and Jeeves (1961). After
solving several problems, Pegden and Gately concluded that their packages
extended the capabilities of the simulation language by providing for automatic
optimization of decision.
The direct search algorithms available today for simulation optimization are
much better than those available in the late 1970s. Using these newer algorithms,
the SimRunner simulation optimization tool was developed in 1995. Following
SimRunner, two other simulation software vendors soon added an optimization
feature to their products. These products are OptQuest96, which was introduced
in 1996 to be used with simulation models built with Micro Saint software, and
WITNESS Optimizer, which was introduced in 1997 to be used with simulation
models built with Witness software. The optimization module in OptQuest96 is
based on scatter search, which has links to Tabu Search and the popular evolutionary algorithm called the Genetic Algorithm (Glover 1994; Glover et al. 1996).
WITNESS Optimizer is based on a search algorithm called Simulated Annealing
(Markt and Mayer 1997). Today most major simulation software packages include
an optimization feature.
SimRunner has an optimization module and a module for determining the
required sample size (replications) and a models warm-up period (in the case of
a steady-state analysis). The optimization module can optimize integer and real
decision variables. The design of the optimization module in SimRunner was
inuenced by optima-seeking techniques such as Tabu Search (Glover 1990) and
evolutionary algorithms (Fogel 1992; Goldberg 1989; Schwefel 1981), though it
most closely resembles an evolutionary algorithm (SimRunner 1996b).

11.4 Evolutionary Algorithms

Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are a class of direct search techniques that are
based on concepts from the theory of evolution. They mimic the underlying evolutionary process in that entities adapt to their environment in order to survive.
EAs manipulate a population of solutions to a problem in such a way that poor
solutions fade away and good solutions continually evolve in their search for the
optimum (Bowden and Bullington 1996). Search techniques based on this
concept have proved robust in that they have been successfully used to solve a
wide variety of difcult problems (Biethahn and Nissen 1994; Bowden and
Bullington 1995; Usher and Bowden 1996).
Evolutionary algorithms differ from traditional nonlinear optimization techniques in many ways. The most signicant difference is that they search the
response surface using a population of solutions as opposed to a single solution.
This allows an EA to collect information about the response surface from many
different points simultaneously. The EA uses the information reported back from

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multiple locations on the response surface, as opposed to a single point, to guide

the search for the optimal solution. This population-based approach increases the
chance of nding the global optimal solution (Biethahn and Nissen 1994).
Research has been conducted to demonstrate the convergence characteristics of
EAs and to develop mathematical proofs for global convergence (for example, see
Bck and Schwefel 1993).
The most popular EAs are genetic algorithms (Goldberg 1989), evolutionary
programming (Fogel 1992), and evolution strategies (Schwefel 1981). Although
these three EAs have some signicant differences in the way they implement
ideas from evolution, they share the same basic methodology. Four major algorithmic steps are needed to apply an EA:
Step 1. Generate an initial population of solutions to the problem by
distributing them throughout the solution space.
Step 2. Accurately compute the tness (response) of each solution.
Step 3. Based on the tness of the solutions, select the best solutions and
apply idealized-type genetic operators to produce a new generation of
offspring solutions.
Step 4. Return to Step 2 as long as the algorithm is locating improved solutions.

11.4.1 Combining Evolutionary Algorithms with Simulation

The deviations mentioned previously from traditional nonlinear optimization techniques give EAs several advantages for solving simulation optimization problems.
For example, Biethahn and Nissen (1994), Bck et al. (1995), and Bck and Schwefel
(1993) report that EAs are very suitable for simulation optimization because
They require no restrictive assumptions or prior knowledge about the
topology of the response surface being searched, thereby making them
broadly applicable techniques.
They are well suited for problems with response surfaces that are highly
dimensional, multimodal, discontinuous, nondifferentiable, and
stochastic, and even for problems with moving response surfaces.
They are very reliable search techniques and are relatively easy to use.
A potential disadvantage of using EAs for simulation optimization is that
they sometimes require the evaluation of many solutions (calls to the simulation
model). This could be prohibitive if computational time is limited. However, there
are procedures that can be used to reduce the number of times the simulation
model is called. For example, Hall and Bowden (1996) developed a method that
combines an EA with a more locally oriented direct search technique that results
in substantially fewer calls to the simulation model.
Several examples of using EAs for simulation optimization have appeared
in the research literature. Lacksonen and Anussornnitisarn (1995) compared a
genetic algorithm (GA) with three other direct search techniques (Hooke Jeeves
Pattern Search, Nelder Mead Simplex Search, and Simulated Annealing) on
20 simulation optimization test problems and ranked GA as best. Stuckman, Evans,

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and Mollaghasemi (1991) suggest that GAs and Simulated Annealing are the
algorithms of choice when dealing with a large number of decision variables.
Tompkins and Azadivar (1995) recommend using GAs when the optimization problem involves qualitative (logical) decision variables. The authors have extensively
researched the use of genetic algorithms, evolutionary programming, and evolution strategies for solving manufacturing simulation optimization problems and
simulation-based machine learning problems (Bowden 1995; Bowden, Neppalli,
and Calvert 1995; Bowden, Hall, and Usher 1996; Hall, Bowden, and Usher 1996).
Reports have also appeared in the trade journal literature on how the EAbased optimizer in SimRunner helped to solve real-world problems. For example,
IBM; Sverdrup Facilities, Inc.; and Baystate Health Systems report benets from
using SimRunner as a decision support tool (Akbay 1996). The simulation
group at Lockheed Martin used SimRunner to help determine the most efcient
lot sizes for parts and when the parts should be released to the system to meet
schedules (Anonymous 1996).

11.4.2 Illustration of an Evolutionary Algorithms

Search of a Response Surface
In this section, we demonstrate how EAs perform when applied to problems that
are characterized by multimodal and stochastic response surfaces that can be
produced by a simulation models output. For convenience of presentation, a onedecision-variable version of a function developed by Ackley (1987) is used to gain
insight on how EAs seek the optimal solution. First Ackleys function is transformed from a deterministic function to a stochastic function. This is done in the
usual way by adding stochastic perturbations (noise) to the response generated by
Ackleys function. Figure 11.3 illustrates Ackleys function when noise is added to
FIGURE 11.3

Measured response

Ackleys function with noise and the ESs progress over eight generations.
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10

Ackley's Function
Generation 1
Generation 2
Generation 3
Generation 4
Generation 5
Generation 6
Generation 7
Generation 8
5

0
Decision variable X

10

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it by sampling from a uniform (1, 1) distribution. This simulates the variation that
can occur in the output from a stochastic simulation model. The function is shown
with a single decision variable X that takes on real values between 10 and 10. The
response surface has a minimum expected value of zero, occurring when X is equal
to zero, and a maximum expected value of 19.37 when X is equal to 9.54 or
+9.54. Ackleys function is multimodal and thus has several locally optimal solutions (optima) that occur at each of the low points (assuming a minimization problem) on the response surface. However, the local optimum that occurs when X is
equal to zero is the global optimum (the lowest possible response). This is a useful
test function because search techniques can prematurely converge and end their
search at one of the many optima before nding the global optimum.
According to Step 1 of the four-step process outlined in Section 11.4, an initial
population of solutions to the problem is generated by distributing them throughout
the solution space. Using a variant of Schwefels (1981) Evolution Strategy (ES)
with two parent solutions and 10 offspring solutions, 10 different values for the decision variable between 10 and 10 are randomly picked to represent an initial offspring population of 10 solutions. However, to make the search for the optimal solution more challenging, the 10 solutions in the initial offspring population are
placed far from the global optimum to see if the algorithm can avoid being trapped
by one of the many local optima. Therefore, the 10 solutions for the rst generation
were randomly picked between 10 and 8. So the test is to see if the population
of 10 solutions can evolve from one generation to the next to nd the global optimal solution without being trapped by one of the many local optima.
Figure 11.3 illustrates the progress that the ES made by following the fourstep process from Section 11.4. To avoid complicating the graph, only the
responses for the two best solutions (parents) in each generation are plotted on the
response surface. Clearly, the process of selecting the best solutions and applying
idealized genetic operators allows the algorithm to focus its search toward the
optimal solution from one generation to the next. Although the ES samples many
of the local optima, it quickly identies the region of the global optimum and is
beginning to hone in on the optimal solution by the eighth generation. Notice that
in the sixth generation, the ES has placed solutions to the right side of the search
space (X > 0) even though it was forced to start its search at the far left side of the
solution space. This ability of an evolutionary algorithm allows it to conduct a
more globally oriented search.
When a search for the optimal solution is conducted in a noisy simulation
environment, care should be taken in measuring the response generated for a
given input (solution) to the model. This means that to get an estimate of the expected value of the response, multiple observations (replications) of a solutions
performance should be averaged. But to test the idea that EAs can deal with noisy
response surfaces, the previous search was conducted using only one observation
of a solutions performance. Therefore, the potential existed for the algorithm to
become confused and prematurely converge to one of the many local optima
because of the noisy response surface. Obviously, this was not the case with the
EA in this example.

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The authors are not advocating that analysts can forget about determining the
number of replications needed to satisfactorily estimate the expected value of the
response. However, to effectively conduct a search for the optimal solution, an
algorithm must be able to deal with noisy response surfaces and the resulting
uncertainties that exist even when several observations (replications) are used to
estimate a solutions true performance.

11.5 Strategic and Tactical Issues of Simulation Optimization

When optimizing a simulated system for the purpose of applying the solution to
an actual system, the analyst must rst ensure that the simulation model accurately mimics the real system. This subject is discussed in Chapter 8. Additionally,
the analyst must determine the appropriate amount of time to simulate the system,
the warm-up period for the model (if applicable), and the required number of
independent observations (model replications). A detailed treatment of these
topics can be found in Chapter 9.
Another issue very relevant to simulation optimization is the efciency of the
simulation study. Here efciency is measured in terms of the amount of time
necessary to conduct experiments with the simulation model. In the context of an
optimization project, an experiment is the evaluation of a solution to estimate its
utility. Optimization projects often require the evaluation of many solutions, and
a few seconds saved per experiment can translate into a signicant reduction in
time during an optimization project. Therefore, the amount of time it takes to run
the model for one replication (operational efciency) and the number of replications required to satisfactorily estimate the expected value of the models
response for a given input solution to the model (statistical efciency) are important
considerations.

11.5.1 Operational Efciency

When a general-purpose language like C is used to build a simulation model, the
programmer has a great deal of control over how efciently, or fast, the program
operates. For example, minimizing the number of lines of code in a program is
one way to reduce the time required to execute the program. When using a simulation language or a simulator, the analyst has less control over the programs
efciency. However, the analyst still has control over other factors that affect the
time required to run a model such as the level of detail included in the model, the
number of different statistics collected during model execution, and the use of
animation.
A good rule is not to take the approach of including every possible element of
a system in a model, as a way of making sure something important is not left out
of the model. Each element added to the model usually increases the time required
to run the simulation. Therefore, include only those elements of the system that
have a direct bearing on the problem being studied. For these essential elements,

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select the minimum number of statistics necessary to estimate the utility of a

solution. ProModel products allow users to turn off statistical tracking for
locations, entities, resources, and variables that are not needed to estimate the
performance of a solution. If, for example, a model is to estimate an entitys time
in the system, then only entity-based statistics need be recorded. Also, turning the
animation feature off generally reduces the time to run the model.

11.5.2 Statistical Efciency

One luxury afforded to model builders is that the variance of a performance measure
computed from the output of simulations can be reduced. This is a luxury because
reducing the variance allows us to estimate the mean value of a random variable
within a desired level of precision and condence with fewer replications (independent observations). The reduction in the required number of replications is achieved
by controlling how random variates are used to drive the events in the simulation
model. These time-saving techniques are called variance reduction techniques.
One popular variance reduction technique called common random numbers
(CRN) was covered in Chapter 10. The CRN technique was invented to compare
different system congurations, or solutions, in the context of simulation optimization. The CRN technique is intuitively appealing because it provides a means
for comparing solutions under more equal experimental conditions than if CRN
were not used. This is helpful in ensuring that the differences in the performance
of two solutions are due to the differences in the solutions themselves and not to
differences in experimental conditions. Therefore, the use of CRN is generally
recommended.

11.5.3 General Optimization Procedure

After a credible and efcient (both operationally and statistically) simulation
model has been built, it is time to begin the optimization project. The general
procedure and rules of thumb for carrying out an optimization project with the
EA-based optimization module in SimRunner follow.
Step 1. The decision variables believed to affect the output of the simulation
model are rst programmed into the model as variables whose values can be
quickly changed by the EA. Decision variables are typically the parameters whose
values can be adjusted by management, such as the number of nurses assigned to
a shift or the number of machines to be placed in a work cell.
Step 2. For each decision variable, dene its numeric data type (integer or real)
and its lower bound (lowest possible value) and upper bound (highest possible
value). During the search, the EA will generate solutions by varying the values of
decision variables according to their data types, lower bounds, and upper bounds.
The number of decision variables and the range of possible values affect the size
of the search space (number of possible solutions to the problem). Increasing

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the number of decision variables or their range of values increases the size of the
search space, which can make it more difcult and time-consuming to identify the
optimal solution. As a rule, include only those decision variables known to significantly affect the output of the simulation model and judiciously dene the range
of possible values for each decision variable. Also, care should be taken when
dening the lower and upper bounds of the decision variables to ensure that a
combination of values will not be created that lead to a solution not envisioned
when the model was built.
Step 3. After selecting the decision variables, construct the objective function to
measure the utility of the solutions tested by the EA. Actually, the foundation for
the objective function would have already been established when the goals for the
simulation project were set. For example, if the goal of the modeling project is to
nd ways to minimize a customers waiting time in a bank, then the objective
function should measure an entitys (customers) waiting time in the bank. The
objective function is built using terms taken from the output report generated at
the end of the simulation run. Objective function terms can be based on entity
statistics, location statistics, resource statistics, variable statistics, and so on. The
user species whether a term is to be minimized or maximized as well as the
overall weighting of that term in the objective function. Some terms may be more
or less important to the user than other terms. Remember that as terms are added
to the objective function, the complexity of the search space may increase, which
makes a more difcult optimization problem. From a statistical point of view,
single-term objective functions are also preferable to multiterm objective functions. Therefore, strive to keep the objective function as specic as possible.
The objective function is a random variable, and a set of initial experiments
should be conducted to estimate its variability (standard deviation). Note that there
is a possibility that the objective functions standard deviation differs from one
solution to the next. Therefore, the required number of replications necessary to estimate the expected value of the objective function may change from one solution
to the next. Thus the objective functions standard deviation should be measured
for several different solutions and the highest standard deviation recorded used to
compute the number of replications necessary to estimate the expected value of the
objective function. When selecting the set of test solutions, choose solutions that
are very different from one another. For example, form solutions by setting the
decision variables to their lower bounds, middle values, or upper bounds.
A better approach for controlling the number of replications used to estimate
the expected value of the objective function for a given solution would be to incorporate a rule into the model that schedules additional replications until the estimate
reaches a desired level of precision (condence interval half-width). Using this
technique can help to avoid running too many replications for some solutions and
too few replications for others.
Step 4. Select the size of the EAs population (number of solutions) and begin
the search. The size of the population of solutions used to conduct the search

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affects both the likelihood that the algorithm will locate the optimal solution and
the time required to conduct the search. In general, as the population size is
increased, the algorithm nds better solutions. However, increasing the population size generally increases the time required to conduct the search. Therefore, a
balance must be struck between nding the optimum and the amount of available
time to conduct the search.
Step 5. After the EAs search has concluded (or halted due to time constraints),
the analyst should study the solutions found by the algorithm. In addition to the
best solution discovered, the algorithm usually nds many other competitive
solutions. A good practice is to rank each solution evaluated based on its utility as
measured by the objective function. Next, select the most highly competitive
solutions and, if necessary, make additional model replications of those solutions
to get better estimates of their true utility. And, if necessary, refer to Chapter 10
for background on statistical techniques that can help you make a nal decision
between competing solutions. Also, keep in mind that the database of solutions
evaluated by the EA represents a rich source of information about the behavior, or
response surface, of the simulation model. Sorting and graphing the solutions can
help you interpret the meaning of the data and gain a better understanding of
how the system behaves.
If the general procedure presented is followed, chances are that a good course
of action will be identied. This general procedure is easily carried out using
ProModel simulation products. Analysts can use SimRunner to help
Determine the length of time and warm-up period (if applicable) for
running a model.
Determine the required number of replications for obtaining estimates
with a specied level of precision and condence.
Search for the optimal values for the important decision variables.
Even though it is easy to use SimRunner and other modern optimizers, do
not fall into the trap of letting them become the decision maker. Study the top
solutions found by the optimizers as you might study the performance records of
different cars for a possible purchase. Kick their tires, look under their hoods, and
drive them around the block before buying. Always remember that the optimizer
is not the decision maker. It only suggest a possible course of action. It is the
users responsibility to make the nal decision.

11.6 Formulating an Example Optimization Problem

The optimal allocation of buffer storage between workstations is a common industrial problem and has been extensively studied by academic researchers. If a production line consists of a network of tightly linked workstations, an inventory of
parts (work in progress) between workstations can be used to minimize the chance

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that disruptions (machine failures, line imbalances, quality problems, or the like)
will shut down the production line. Several strategies have been developed for
determining the amount of buffer storage needed between workstations. However,
these strategies are often developed based on simplifying assumptions, made for
mathematical convenience, that rarely hold true for real production systems.
One way to avoid oversimplifying a problem for the sake of mathematical
convenience is to build a simulation model of the production system and use it to
help identify the amount of buffer storage space needed between workstations.
However, the number of possible solutions to the buffer allocation problem grows
rapidly as the size of the production system (number of possible buffer storage
areas and their possible sizes) increases, making it impractical to evaluate all solutions. In such cases, it is helpful to use simulation optimization software like
SimRunner to identify a set of candidate solutions.
This example is loosely based on the example production system presented
in Chapter 10. It gives readers insight into how to formulate simulation optimization problems when using SimRunner. The example is not fully solved. Its completion is left as an exercise in Lab Chapter 11.

11.6.1 Problem Description

The production system consists of four machines and three buffers. Parts entering
the system require processing by each of the four machines in a serial fashion
(Figure 11.4). A part is always available for processing at the rst machine. After
a part is processed, it moves from the machine to the buffer storage area for the
FIGURE 11.4
Production system
with four workstations
and three buffer
storage areas.

.72

4.56

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next machine, where it waits to be processed. However, if the buffer is full, the
part cannot move forward and remains on the machine until a space becomes
available in the buffer. Furthermore, the machine is blocked and no other parts can
move to the machine for processing. The part exits the system after being
processed by the fourth machine. Note that parts are selected from the buffers to
be processed by a machine in a rst-in, rst-out order. The processing time at each
machine is exponentially distributed with a mean of 1.0 minute, 1.3 minutes,
0.7 minute, and 1.0 minute for machines one, two, three, and four, respectively.
The time to move parts from one location to the next is negligible.
For this problem, three decision variables describe how buffer space is allocated (one decision variable for each buffer to signify the number of parts that can
be stored in the buffer). The Goal is to nd the optimal value for each decision
variable to maximize the prot made from the sale of the parts. The manufacturer
collects $10 per part produced. The limitation is that each unit of space provided
for a part in a buffer costs $1,000. So the buffer storage has to be strategically
allocated to maximize the throughput of the system. Throughput will be measured
as the number of parts completed during a 30-day period.

11.6.2 Demonstration of the General Optimization Procedure

The general optimization procedure outlined in Section 11.5.3 will be used to
guide the formulation of the problem as a SimRunner simulation optimization
project. The assumption is that a credible and efcient simulation model has been
built of the production system.
Step 1. In this step, the decision variables for the problem are identied and
dened. Three decision variables are needed to represent the number of parts that
can be stored in each buffer (buffer capacity). Let Q1, Q2, and Q3 represent the
number of parts that can be stored in buffers 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
Step 2. The numeric data type for each Qi is integer. If it is assumed that each
buffer will hold a minimum of one part, then the lower bound for each Qi is 1. The
upper bound for each decision variable could arbitrarily be set to, say, 20. However, keep in mind that as the range of values for a decision variable is increased,
the size of the search space also increases and will likely increase the time to
conduct the search. Therefore, this is a good place to apply existing knowledge
about the performance and design of the system.
For example, physical constraints may limit the maximum capacity of each
buffer to no greater than 15 parts. If so, there is no need to conduct a search with
a range of values that produce infeasible solutions (buffer capacities greater than
15 parts). Considering that the fourth machines processing time is larger than the
third machines processing time, parts will tend to queue up at the third buffer.
Therefore, it might be a good idea to set the upper bound for Q3 to a larger value
than the other two decision variables. However, be careful not to assume too much

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because it could prevent the optimization algorithm from exploring regions in the
search space that may contain good solutions.
With this information, it is decided to set the upper bound for the capacity of
each buffer to 15 parts. Therefore, the bounds for each decision variable are
1 Q 1 15

1 Q 2 15

1 Q 3 15

Given that each of the three decision variable has 15 different values, there are
153, or 3,375, unique solutions to the problem.
Step 3. Here the objective function is formulized. The model was built to investigate buffer allocation strategies to maximize the throughput of the system.
Given that the manufacturer collects $10 per part produced and that each unit of
space provided for a part in a buffer costs $1,000, the objective function for the
optimization could be stated as
Maximize [$10(Throughput) $1,000(Q 1 + Q 2 + Q 3 )]
where Throughput is the total number of parts produced during a 30-day
period.
Next, initial experiments are conducted to estimate the variability of the
objective function in order to determine the number of replications the EA-based
optimization algorithm will use to estimate the expected value of the objective
function for each solution it evaluates. While doing this, it was also noticed that
the throughput level increased very little for buffer capacities beyond a value of
nine. Therefore, it was decided to change the upper bound for each decision variable to nine. This resulted in a search space of 93, or 729, unique solutions, a
reduction of 2,646 solutions from the original formulation. This will likely reduce
the search time.
Step 4. Select the size of the population that the EA-based optimization algorithm
will use to conduct its search. SimRunner allows the user to select an optimization
prole that inuences the degree of thoroughness used to search for the optimal
solution. The three optimization proles are aggressive, moderate, and cautious,
which correspond to EA population sizes of small, medium, and large. The aggressive prole generally results in a quick search for locally optimal solutions and is
used when computer time is limited. The cautious prole species that a more
thorough search for the global optimum be conducted and is used when computer
time is plentiful. At this point, the analyst knows the amount of time required to
evaluate a solution. Only one more piece of information is needed to determine
how long it will take the algorithm to conduct its search. That is the fraction of the
729 solutions the algorithm will evaluate before converging to a nal solution.
Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing this in advance. With time running out
before a recommendation for the system must be given to management, the analyst elects to use a small population size by selecting SimRunners aggressive optimization prole.

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Step 5. After the search concludes, the analyst selects for further evaluation some
of the top solutions found by the optimization algorithm. Note that this does not
necessarily mean that only those solutions with the best objective function values
are chosen, because the analyst should conduct both a quantitative and a qualitative
analysis. On the quantitative side, statistical procedures presented in Chapter 10
are used to gain a better understanding of the relative differences in performance
between the candidate solutions. On the qualitative side, one solution may be
preferred over another based on factors such as ease of implementation.
Figure 11.5 illustrates the results from a SimRunner optimization of the buffer
allocation problem using an aggressive optimization prole. The warm-up time for
the simulation was set to 10 days, with each day representing a 24-hour production
period. After the warm-up time of 10 days (240 hours), the system is simulated for
an additional 30 days (720 hours) to determine throughput. The estimate for the expected value of the objective function was based on ve replications of the simulation. The smoother line that is always at the top of the Performance Measures Plot
in Figure 11.5 represents the value of the objective function for the best solution
identied by SimRunner during the optimization. Notice the rapid improvement in
the value of the objective function during the early part of the search as SimRunner
identies better buffer capacities. The other, more irregular line represents the
value of the objective function for all the solutions that SimRunner tried.
SimRunners best solution to the problem species a Buffer 1 capacity of
nine, a Buffer 2 capacity of seven, and a Buffer 3 capacity of three and was the
33rd solution (experiment) evaluated by SimRunner. The best solution is located
at the top of the table in Figure 11.5. SimRunner sorts the solutions in the table
FIGURE 11.5
SimRunner results for
the buffer allocation
problem.

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from best to worst. SimRunner evaluated 82 out of the possible 729 solutions.
Note that there is no guarantee that SimRunners best solution is in fact the optimum solution to the problem. However, it is likely to be one of the better solutions
to the problem and could be the optimum one.
The last two columns in the SimRunner table shown in Figure 11.5 display
the lower and upper bounds of a 95 percent condence interval for each solution
evaluated. Notice that there is signicant overlap between the condence intervals. Although this is not a formal hypothesis-testing procedure, the overlapping
condence intervals suggest the possibility that there is not a signicant difference in the performance of the top solutions displayed in the table. Therefore, it
would be wise to run additional replications of the favorite solutions from the list
and/or use one of the hypothesis-testing procedures in Chapter 10 before selecting
a particular solution as the best. The real value here is that SimRunner automatically conducted the search, without the analyst having to hover over it, and reported back several good solutions to the problem for the analyst to consider.

11.7 Real-World Simulation Optimization Project

In this section, we provide an account of how simulation combined with optimization was used to solve a kanban sizing problem. The objective for this problem is to nd the minimum amount of inventory required to support production in
a just-in-time (JIT) environment where parts are pulled through the system using
kanban cards. This presentation is based on a problem faced by a major appliance
factory in the United States. Two different techniques are used to solve the problem. One approach uses a technique developed by Toyota. The other approach
uses an EA-based simulation optimization algorithm similar to the one used in
SimRunner. The presentation concludes with a comparative analysis of the two
solutions generated by these techniques.

11.7.1 Problem Description

A kanban is a card that authorizes a workstation to begin producing a part.
Kanban cards are passed from downstream workstations to upstream workstations, signaling the upstream workstation to begin producing a part. This results in
parts being pulled through the system as downstream workstations issue kanban
cards to upstream workstations.
In a pull production system, the number of kanban cards directly inuences the
number of material-handling containers required for transporting (pulling) parts
through the system and thus the maximum amount of work-in-progress (WIP)
inventory. Trigger values represent the number of kanban cards that must accumulate before a workstation is authorized to begin production. Therefore, trigger
values control the frequency of machine setups. While the ideal minimum trigger
value equals 1, many processes do not allow for this due to the time required for
machine setup or maintenance. Solving for the optimal number of kanban cards and
corresponding trigger values presents a difcult task for production planners.

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FIGURE 11.6
The two-stage pull
production system.

Trigger 1
Customer
demand

Assembly line

Assembly line

Stage
One
WIP

Stage One
process

Trigger 2

Stage
Two
WIP

Raw
materials
Stage Two
line

Kanban posts
Final product

Component

Subassembly

Kanban card

Figure 11.6 illustrates the relationship of the processes in the two-stage pull
production system of interest that produces several different types of parts.
Customer demand for the nal product causes containers of subassemblies to be
pulled from the Stage One WIP location to the assembly lines. As each container is
withdrawn from the Stage One WIP location, a production-ordering kanban card
representing the number of subassemblies in a container is sent to the kanban post
for the Stage One processing system. When the number of kanban cards for a given
subassembly meets its trigger value, the necessary component parts are pulled from
the Stage Two WIP to create the subassemblies. Upon completing the Stage One
process, subassemblies are loaded into containers, the corresponding kanban card
is attached to the container, and both are sent to Stage One WIP. The container and
card remain in the Stage One WIP location until pulled to an assembly line.
In Stage Two, workers process raw materials to ll the Stage Two WIP
location as component parts are pulled from it by Stage One. As component parts
are withdrawn from the Stage Two WIP location and placed into the Stage One
process, a production-ordering kanban card representing the quantity of component parts in a container is sent to the kanban post for the Stage Two line. When
the number of kanban cards for a given component part meets a trigger value,
production orders equal to the trigger value are issued to the Stage Two line. As
workers move completed orders of component parts from the Stage Two line to
WIP, the corresponding kanban cards follow the component parts to the Stage
Two WIP location.
While an overall reduction in WIP is sought, production planners desire a solution (kanban cards and trigger values for each stage) that gives preference to
minimizing the containers in the Stage One WIP location. This requirement is due
to space limitations.

11.7.2 Simulation Model and Performance Measure

Without sacricing the presentation of the simulation optimization subject, only
a sketch of the model is given. The pull production system was represented in a

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discrete-event simulation model. The model assumes constant interarrival times

for customer orders to the assembly lines. However, workers at the assembly
lines may nd defects in the subassemblies, which increases subassembly
demand above that needed for scheduled customer demand. The number of defective subassemblies found on the assembly lines follows a stochastic function.
Production times for the Stage One process and Stage Two line are constant
because they are automated processes. Setup time, time between failures, and
time to repair for the Stage Two line are triangularly distributed. Each simulation
run consists of a 10-day (two-week) warm-up period followed by a 20-day (onemonth) steady-state period.
The performance measure to be maximized is
f (a) = W1 (AvgPct + MinPct) W2 (TK1 ) W3 (TK2 )
where AvgPct is the average throughput percentage (percentage of demand satised) for all product types coming off the assembly lines; MinPct is the minimum
throughput percentage for all product types coming off the assembly lines; TK1 is
the total number of kanban cards in Stage One; TK2 is the total number of kanban
cards in Stage Two; and W1, W2, and W3 are coefcients that reect the level of importance (weighting) assigned to each term by production planners. The weighting
levels assigned to W1, W2, and W3 are 20.0, 0.025, and 0.015, respectively. Using
this performance function, the objective is to nd a solution that will maximize
throughput while minimizing the total number of kanban cards in the system.
The production planners decided to x the trigger values in the Stage One
process to 1; therefore, the optimal number of kanban cards in the Stage One
process and the optimal number of kanban cards and corresponding trigger values
in the Stage Two line for each of the 11 different part types being produced need
to be determined. Thus the problem contains 33 integer decision variables.
Each solution is a vector a = (K11 , K12 , K13 , . . . , K111 ; K 21 , K 22 , K 23 , . . . ,
K211 ; T21 , T22 , T23 , . . . , T211 ) where K1i represents the number of kanban cards
for part type i circulating in the Stage One process, K2i represents the number of
kanban cards for part type i circulating in the Stage Two line, and T2i represents the
corresponding trigger quantities for part type i used in the Stage Two line. Considering the range of possible values for each of the decision variables (omitted for
brevity), there are 4.81 1041 unique solutions to this problem.

11.7.3 Toyota Solution Technique

Because of their ease of use, the kanban sizing equations developed by Toyota
are often used by manufacturers to estimate the number of kanban cards needed.
For this problem, the constant-quantity, nonconstant-cycle withdrawal system
as described by Monden (1993) was used. The number of kanbans required is
determined by





Monthly demand
Daily
Safety
+

demand
coefcient
Monthly setups
Kanbans =
Container capacity

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where the safety coefcient represents the amount of WIP needed in the system.
Production planners assumed a safety coefcient that resulted in one day of WIP
for each part type. Additionally, they decided to use one setup per day for each
part type. Although this equation provides an estimate of the minimum number of
kanban cards, it does not address trigger values. Therefore, trigger values for the
Stage Two line were set at the expected number of containers consumed for each
part type in one day. The Toyota equation recommended using a total of 243
kanban cards. The details of the calculation are omitted for brevity. When evaluated in the simulation model, this solution yielded a performance score of 35.140
(using the performance function dened in Section 11.7.2) based on four independent simulation runs (replications).

11.7.4 Simulation Optimization Technique

Here an EA-based optimization module like the one in SimRunner is used to
search for an optimal solution to the problem. Given that it is not practical to assume that there is an unlimited amount of time for conducting a search, the software allows the user to select an optimization prole that inuences the degree of
thoroughness used to search for the optimal solution. The three optimization proles are aggressive, moderate, and cautious, which correspond to EA population
sizes of small, medium, and large. The aggressive prole generally results in
a quick search and is used when computer time is limited. The cautious prole
species that a more thorough search be conducted. The moderate prole was
used to search for an optimal number of kanban cards and trigger values.
Each time the simulation model is called to evaluate a solution, the model runs
four replications to get four independent observations of a solutions performance.
The performance of a solution is computed at the end of each simulation run using
the performance function dened in Section 11.7.2. The nal performance score
assigned to each solution is the average of the four independent observations.
Figure 11.7 illustrates the progress of the optimization modules search. Because it is difcult to visualize a response surface with 33 dimension variables,
only the performance score of the best solution found per generation is plotted.
The points are connected with a line to highlight the rate at which the algorithm
nds solutions with improved performance scores. Note that the optimization
module quickly nds solutions that are better (based on the four independent
observations) than the solution found using the Toyota technique, and the optimization module steadily nds better solutions after that point. The search was
halted at 150 generations because the solution was not improving signicantly.
The solution recommended using a total of 110 kanban cards and yielded a
performance score of 37.945 based on four replications.

11.7.5 Comparison of Results

Final solutions generated by the optimization module and Toyota equation were
run in the simulation model for 20 independent replications to get a better
estimate of the true mean performance of the solutions. Table 11.1 presents a

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FIGURE 11.7

39

Optimization module
Toyota

38
Measured response

After the second

generation, the
solutions found by the
optimization module
are better than the
solutions generated
using the Toyota
method.

37
36
35
34
33
0

50

100

150

Generation

TABLE 11.1 The Optimization Modules Solution Meets Production

Throughput Goals with 54 Percent Fewer Kanban Cards
Than Toyota
Technique
Optimization module
Toyota solution

Kanban Cards

Performance Scores

110
243

37.922
35.115

comparison of the solutions. Both solutions achieved the required throughput

using a substantially different number of kanban cards.
An application of Fishers LSD statistical multiple comparison test presented
in Chapter 10 suggests that the performance scores for the methods in Table 11.1
are different at a 0.05 level of signicance. Results indicate that the optimization
module produced a signicantly better solution to the kanban sizing problem than
did the production planners using the Toyota technique. The solution that the
optimization module found requires approximately 54 percent fewer kanban cards
(54 percent less WIP) than the solution generated using the Toyota techniquea
considerable reduction in inventory carrying costs.
Considering the time required to run the simulation model on a personal
computer with a P5-100 processor and the fact that there are 4.81 1041 unique
solutions to the problem, it would take approximately 1.15 1038 days to evaluate all solutions to the problem. Obviously, this is not a practical alternative. The
optimization module required only 24 hours (one day) to complete its search. It
evaluated only a small fraction of the total number of solutions and provided
a much better starting point than the Toyota solution for making the nal decision
regarding the actual pull production system, a noteworthy contribution to the
decision-making process whether or not the solution found is the global optimum.

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11.8 Summary
In recent years, major advances have been made in the development of userfriendly simulation software packages. However, progress in developing simulation output analysis tools has been especially slow in the area of simulation
optimization because conducting simulation optimization with traditional techniques has been as much an art as a science (Greenwood, Rees, and Crouch 1993).
There are such an overwhelming number of traditional techniques that only individuals with extensive backgrounds in statistics and optimization theory have
realized the benets of integrating simulation and optimization concepts. Using
newer optimization techniques, it is now possible to narrow the gap with userfriendly, yet powerful, tools that allow analysts to combine simulation and
optimization for improved decision support. SimRunner is one such tool.
Our purpose is not to argue that evolutionary algorithms are the panacea
for solving simulation optimization problems. Rather, our purpose is to introduce
the reader to evolutionary algorithms by illustrating how they work and how to
use them for simulation optimization and to expose the reader to the wealth of
literature that demonstrates that evolutionary algorithms are a viable choice for
reliable optimization.
There will always be debate on what are the best techniques to use for simulation optimization. Debate is welcome as it results in better understanding of the
real issues and leads to the development of better solution procedures. It must be
remembered, however, that the practical issue is not that the optimization technique guarantees that it locates the optimal solution in the shortest amount of time
for all possible problems that it may encounter; rather, it is that the optimization
technique consistently nds good solutions to problems that are better than the
solutions analysts are nding on their own. Newer techniques such as evolutionary algorithms and scatter search meet this requirement because they have proved
robust in their ability to solve a wide variety of problems, and their ease of use
makes them a practical choice for simulation optimization today (Boesel et al.
2001; Brady and Bowden 2001).

11.9 Review Questions

1. What is a response surface?
2. What does it mean if an optimization algorithm is classied as a heuristic
technique?
3. What is the most signicant difference between the way evolutionary
algorithms (EAs) search a response surface and the way many traditional
nonlinear optimization algorithms conduct a search? What advantage
does this difference give to an EA over many traditional nonlinear
optimization algorithms?
4. Assume you are working on a project with ve decision variables (A, B,
C, D, E). Each decision variables numeric data type is integer with the

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following values: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. How many different solutions can be

generated from these ve decision variables? If it takes one minute of
computer time to evaluate a solution (run the simulation model for the
required number of replications), how many hours would it take to
evaluate all solutions?
5. Dene operational and statistical efciency in the context of simulation
optimization.

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309

SimRunner Online Software Help. Ypsilanti, MI: Decision Science, Inc., 1996b.
SimRunner Users Guide ProModel Edition. Ypsilanti, MI: Decision Science, Inc., 1996a.
Stuckman, B.; G. Evans; and M. Mollaghasemi. Comparison of Global Search Methods
for Design Optimization Using Simulation. 1991 Winter Simulation Conference,
Phoenix, AZ, ed. Nelson, B., W. Kelton and G. Clark. Piscataway, NJ: Institute of
Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 1991, pp. 93744.
Tompkins, G., and F. Azadivar. Genetic Algorithms in Optimizing Simulated Systems.
1991 Winter Simulation Conference, Arlington, VA, ed. Alexopoulos, C., K. Kang,
W. Lilegdon, and D. Goldsman. Piscataway, NJ: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 1995, pp. 75762.
Usher, J., and R. Bowden. The Application of Genetic Algorithms to Operation Sequencing for Use in Computer-Aided Process Planning. Computers and Industrial Engineering Journal 30, no. 4 (1996), pp. 9991013.

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12 MODELING
MANUFACTURING
SYSTEMS

We no longer have the luxury of time to tune and debug new manufacturing
systems on the oor, since the expected economic life of a new system, before
major revision will be required, has become frighteningly short.
Conway and Maxwell

12.1 Introduction
In Chapter 7 we discussed general procedures for modeling the basic operation of
manufacturing and service systems. In this chapter we discuss design and operating issues that are more specic to manufacturing systems. Different applications
of simulation in manufacturing are presented together with how specic manufacturing issues are addressed in a simulation model. Most manufacturing
systems have material handling systems that, in some instances, have a major
impact on overall system performance. We touch on a few general issues related
to material handling systems in this chapter; however, a more thorough treatment
of material handling systems is given in Chapter 13.
Manufacturing systems are processing systems in which raw materials are
transformed into nished products through a series of operations performed at
workstations. In the rush to get new manufacturing systems on line, engineers and
planners often become overly preoccupied with the processes and methods without fully considering the overall coordination of system components.
Many layout and improvement decisions in manufacturing are left to chance
or are driven by the latest management fad with little knowledge of how much improvement will result or whether a decision will result in any improvement at all.
For example, work-in-process (WIP) reduction that is espoused by just-in-time
(JIT) often disrupts operations because it merely uncovers the rocks (variability,
long setups, or the like) hidden beneath the inventory water level that necessitated
the WIP in the rst place. To accurately predict the effect of lowering WIP levels
311

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requires sonar capability. Ideally you would like to identify and remove production rocks before arbitrarily lowering inventory levels and exposing production to
these hidden problems. Unfortunately, note Hopp and Spearman (2001), JIT,
as described in the American literature, offers neither sonar (models that predict
the effects of system changes) nor a sense of the relative economics of level
reduction versus rock removal.
Another popular management technique is the theory of constraints. In this
approach, a constraint or bottleneck is identied and a best-guess solution is
implemented, aimed at either eliminating that particular constraint or at least mitigating the effects of the constraint. The implemented solution is then evaluated
and, if the impact was underestimated, another solution is attempted. As one manufacturing manager expressed, Contraint-based management cant quantify
investment justication or develop a remedial action plan (Berdine 1993). It is
merely a trial-and-error technique in which a best-guess solution is implemented
with the hope that enough improvement is realized to justify the cost of the solution. Even Demings plandocheckact (PDCA) cycle of process improvement
implicitly prescribes checking performance after implementation. What the
PDCA cycle lacks is an evaluation step to test or simulate the plan before it is
implemented. While eventually leading to a better solution, this trial-and-error
approach ends up being costly, time-consuming, and disruptive to implement.
In this chapter we address the following topics:

What are the special characteristics of manufacturing systems?

What terminology is used to describe manufacturing operations?
How is simulation applied to manufacturing systems?
What techniques are used to model manufacturing systems?

12.2 Characteristics of Manufacturing Systems

Manufacturing systems represent a class of processing systems in which entities
(raw materials, components, subassemblies, pallet or container loads, and so on)
are routed through a series of workstations, queues, and storage areas. As opposed
to service systems where the entities are usually human, entities in manufacturing
systems are inanimate objects that have a more controlled entry and routing sequence. Entity production is frequently performed according to schedules to ll
predened quotas. In other instances, production is triggered by low nished
goods inventories (make-to-stock production) or by customer orders (make/
assemble-to-order production). Manufacturing systems utilize varying degrees of
mechanization and automation for entity processing and material movement. In
the most highly automated facilities, there may be very little, if any, human
involvement to be considered in the simulation study. These characteristics have
the following implications for modeling manufacturing systems:
Operation times often have little, if any, variability.
Entity arrivals frequently occur at set times or conditions.

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Routing sequences are usually xed from the start.

Entities are often processed in batches.
Equipment reliability is frequently a key factor.
Material handling can signicantly impact entity ow.
We are usually interested in the steady-state behavior of the system.

Of course, actual modeling considerations will vary depending on the type of

system being modeled and the purpose of the simulation.

12.3 Manufacturing Terminology

Manufacturing systems share many common elements and issues. They also share
a vernacular that can seem foreign to those unfamiliar with manufacturing activities. Understanding how to model manufacturing systems requires a knowledge
of the terminology that is used in manufacturing industries. Here are some of the
terms that are useful to know when simulating manufacturing systems:
OperationAn operation is the activity performed on a product at a workstation. Operations are usually performed to produce some physical change
to a part such as machining or molding. Assembly operations combine
component parts. Nontransformational operations such as inspection or
testing are also frequently performed.
WorkstationA workstation or work center is the place or location where
an operation is performed. A workstation consists of one or more machines
and/or personnel.
NC machineAn NC (numerically controlled) machine is a machine
tool whose spindle and table action are automatically controlled by a
computer.
Machining centerA machining center is essentially an NC machine with
a tool exchanger that provides greater capability than a stand-alone NC
machine. Machining centers have been dened as multifunctional,
numerically controlled machine tools with automatic tool changing
capabilities and rotating cutting tools that permit the programmed,
automated production of a wide variety of parts (Wick 1987).
Master production scheduleThe master production schedule denes what
end products are to be produced for a given period, such as the number of
ofce tables to produce for a week.
Production planThe production plan is a detailed schedule of production
for each individual component comprising each end product.
BottleneckThe bottleneck is traditionally thought of as the workstation
that has the highest utilization or largest ratio of required processing time
to time available. In a broader sense, a bottleneck may be any constraint
or limiting factor (an operator, a conveyor system) in the production of
goods.

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SetupSetup is the activity required to prepare a workstation to produce a

different part type.
JobDepending on the industry, a job may be any of the following:
In a general sense, a job refers to the activity or task being
performed.
In mass production, a job refers to each individual part.
In a job shop, a job refers to a customer order to be produced.
Machine cycle timeMachine cycle time is the time required to perform
a single operation. If load and unload times are included, it is sometimes
referred to as oor-to-oor time.
CapacityCapacity refers to either holding capacity, as in the case of
a tank or storage bin, or production capacity, as in the case of a
machine. Production capacity is usually expressed in one of the following
four ways:
Theoretical capacity is the rate at which a machine is capable of
producing if it were in constant production, assuming 100 percent
efciency.
Effective capacity is the actual capacity factored by the reliability of
the machine with allowances for load and unload, chip removal, and
so forth.
Expected capacity is the effective capacity of the machine factored by
anticipated allowances for system inuences such as shortages and
blockages (this is what simulation can tell you).
Actual capacity is what the machine actually produces.
Scrap rateScrap rate is the percentage of defective parts that are
removed from the system following an operation. The opposite of scrap
rate is yield.
ReliabilityReliability is usually measured in terms of mean time between
failures (MTBF), which is the average time a machine or piece of
equipment is in operation before it fails.
MaintainabilityMaintainability is usually measured in terms of mean time
to repair (MTTR) and is the average time required to repair a machine or
piece of equipment whenever it fails.
AvailabilityAvailability is the percentage of total scheduled time that a
resource is actually available for production. Availability is uptime, which is
a function of reliability and maintainability.
Preventive or scheduled maintenancePreventive or scheduled
maintenance is periodic maintenance (lubrication, cleaning, or the like)
performed on equipment to keep it in running condition.
Unit loadA unit load is a consolidated group of parts that is containerized
or palletized for movement through the system. The idea of a unit load is to
minimize handling through consolidation and provide a standardized pallet
or container as the movement item.

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12.4 Use of Simulation in Manufacturing

Simulation has proved effective in helping to sort through the complex issues surrounding manufacturing decisions. Kochan (1986) notes that, in manufacturing
systems,
The possible permutations and combinations of workpieces, tools, pallets, transport
vehicles, transport routes, operations, etc., and their resulting performance, are almost
endless. Computer simulation has become an absolute necessity in the design of practical systems, and the trend toward broadening its capabilities is continuing as systems
move to encompass more and more of the factory.

As companies move toward greater vertical and horizontal integration and look
for ways to improve the entire value chain, simulation will continue to be an essential tool for effectively planning the production and delivery processes.
Simulation in manufacturing covers the range from real-time cell control
to long-range technology assessment, where it is used to assess the feasibility
of new technologies prior to committing capital funds and corporate resources.
Figure 12.1 illustrates this broad range of planning horizons.
Simulations used to make short-term decisions usually require more detailed
models with a closer resemblance to current operations than what would be found in
long-term decision-making models. Sometimes the model is an exact replica of the
current system and even captures the current state of the system. This is true in realtime control and detailed scheduling applications. As simulation is used for more
long-term decisions, the models may have little or no resemblance to current operations. The model resolution becomes coarser, usually because higher-level decisions
are being made and data are too fuzzy and unreliable that far out into the future.
Simulation helps evaluate the performance of alternative designs and the effectiveness of alternative operating policies. A list of typical design and operational
decisions for which simulation might be used in manufacturing includes the
following:
Design Decisions

1. What type and quantity of machines, equipment, and tooling should

be used?
2. How many operating personnel are needed?
3. What is the production capability (throughput rate) for a given
conguration?
FIGURE 12.1
Decision range in
manufacturing
simulation.
Cell
management

Job
sequencing

Seconds

Hours

Resource Production Process

loading scheduling change
studies
Days

Weeks

Months

System Technology
configuassessration
ment
12 years 25 years

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4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.

What type and size of material handling system should be used?

How large should buffer and storage areas be?
What is the best layout of the factory?
What automation controls work the best?
What is the optimum unit load size?
What methods and levels of automation work best?
How balanced is a production line?
Where are the bottlenecks (bottleneck analysis)?
What is the impact of machine downtime on production (reliability
analysis)?
13. What is the effect of setup time on production?
14. Should storage be centralized or localized?
15. What is the effect of vehicle or conveyor speed on part ow?
Operational Decisions

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

What is the best way to schedule preventive maintenance?

How many shifts are needed to meet production requirements?
What is the optimum production batch size?
What is the optimum sequence for producing a set of jobs?
What is the best way to allocate resources for a particular set of tasks?
What is the effect of a preventive maintenance policy as opposed to a
corrective maintenance policy?
7. How much time does a particular job spend in a system (makespan or
throughput time analysis)?
8. What is the best production control method (kanban, MRP, or other)
to use?
In addition to being used for specic design or operational decisions, simulation has been used to derive general design rules so that the most cost-effective
decisions can be made for a range of operating conditions. One study, for example,
used simulation to estimate how the output capacity of a manufacturing system
changes as the various components of the system are increased or improved for a
known cost. These data were then used to develop cost versus output curves for
a given part or product mix. By comparing these curves for different types of
production systems, it was possible to identify break-even points where a particular type of system was economically preferred over other systems for particular
products or product mixes (Renbold and Dillmann 1986).

12.5 Applications of Simulation in Manufacturing

There are numerous applications for simulation in manufacturing. Many of them
are the same as those found in any type of system, such as capacity analysis and
cycle time reduction. Applications that tend to be more specic to manufacturing

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include

Methods analysis.
Plant layout.
Batch sizing.
Production control.
Inventory control.
Supply chain planning.
Production scheduling.
Real-time control.
Emulation.

Each of these application areas is discussed here.

12.5.1 Methods Analysis

Methods analysis looks at alternative ways of processing and handling material.
An assembly process, for example, can be performed all at a single operation with
several parallel stations or be broken down into multiple stages performed on a
single assembly line. Production and assembly lines may be either paced, in
which product movement occurs at a xed rate with the operator keeping pace, or
unpaced, in which the rate of ow is determined by the speed of the worker. The
relative performance of these alternative methods of production can be easily
demonstrated using simulation.
One of the decisions that addresses manufacturing methods pertains to the
type and level of automation to use in the factory. Simulation has been especially
helpful in designing automated systems to safeguard against suboptimal performance. As noted by Glenney and Mackulak (1985), Computer simulation will
permit evaluation of new automation alternatives and eliminate the problem of
building a six-lane highway that terminates onto a single-lane dirt road. Often an
unbalanced design occurs when the overall performance is overlooked because of
preoccupation with a single element. Islands of automation that are not properly
integrated and balanced lead to suboptimal performance. For example, an automated machine capable of producing 200 parts per hour fed by a manual handler
at the rate of 50 parts per hour will produce only 50 parts per hour. The expression
that a chain is no stronger than its weakest link has particular application to automated manufacturing systems.
There are three types of automation to consider in manufacturing: operation
automation, material handling automation, and information automation. The
degree of automation ranges from manual to fully automatic. Figure 12.2 shows
the types and degrees of automation.
Although information ow is frequently overlooked in manufacturing simulations, it may be a contributing factor to the overall system performance and
therefore may merit some analysis. As noted in a Manufacturing Engineering
article (1993), Its easier to make the product than to adjust the paper and data
ow required to track the product.

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FIGURE 12.2

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Automated

Axes of automation.

Semiautomated

Manual

Automated

Operations

Source: Adapted from

G. Boehlert and W. J.
Trybula, Successful Factory
Automation, IEEE
Transactions, September
1984, p. 218.

n
io
at
rm Semiautomated
fo
In

Manual
Manual

Material handling
Semiautomated

Automated

Automation itself does not solve performance problems. If automation is unsuited for the application, poorly designed, or improperly implemented and integrated, then the system is not likely to succeed. The best approach to automation
is to rst simplify, then systematize, and nally automate. Some companies nd
that after simplifying and systematizing their processes, the perceived need to
automate disappears.

12.5.2 Plant Layout

With the equipment-intensive nature of manufacturing systems, plant layout is
important to the smooth ow of product and movement of resources through the
facility. A good layout results in a streamlined ow with minimal movement and
thus minimizes material handling and storage costs. Even existing systems can
benet from a layout analysis. Layouts tend to evolve haphazardly over time with
little thought given to work ow. This results in nonuniform, multidirectional ow
patterns that cause management and material handling problems. Simulation
helps to identify inefcient ow patterns and to create better layouts to economize
the ow of material.
In planning the layout of a manufacturing system, it is important to have a
total system perspective of material ow. Flow within the manufacturing operation is often hierarchical, beginning with the overall ow from receiving to manufacturing to shipping. At the lowest level, parts might ow from an input buffer
to a machine (see Figure 12.3). Any or all of the levels shown in Figure 12.3 may
be present within a plant. Interaction points occur between levels as well as within
each level. When modeling material ow in a factory it is important to consider
the level of ow and how ows interact.

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FIGURE 12.3
Material ow system.

Receiving

Manufacturing

Shipping

Department A

Department B

Department C

Cell A

Cell B

Cell C

Station A

Station B

Station C

Input buffer

Machine

Output buffer

In laying out equipment in a facility, the designer must choose between a

process layout, a product layout, and a part family layout of machines. In a
process layout, machines are arranged together based on the process they perform.
Machines performing like processes are grouped together. In a product layout,
machines are arranged according to the sequence of operations that are performed
on a product. This results in a serial ow of the product from machine to machine.
In a part family layout, machines are arranged to process parts of the same family.
Part family layouts are also called group technology cells because group technology is used to group parts into families. Figure 12.4 illustrates these three different types of arrangements and their implications on material ow.
Deciding which layout to use will depend largely on the variety and lot size
of parts that are produced. If a wide variety of parts are produced in small lot
sizes, a process layout may be the most appropriate. If the variety is similar
enough in processing requirements to allow grouping into part families, a cell
layout is best. If the variety is small enough and the volume is sufciently large, a

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FIGURE 12.4
Comparison between
(a) process layout,
(b) product layout, and
(c) cell layout.

Part
A
(a) Process
layout
Part
B

(b) Product
layout

Single
product

(c) Cell
layout

Family 1

Family 2

product layout is best. Often a combination of topologies is used within the same
facility to accommodate mixed requirements. For example, a facility might
be predominately a job shop with a few manufacturing cells. In general, the more
the topology resembles a product layout where the ow can be streamlined, the
greater the efciencies that can be achieved.
Perhaps the greatest impact simulation can have on plant layout comes from
designing the process itself, before the layout is even planned. Because the
process plan and method selection provide the basis for designing the layout,
having a well-designed process means that the layout will likely not require major
changes once the best layout is found for the optimized process.

12.5.3 Batch Sizing

Batching decisions play a major role in meeting the ow and efciency goals of
a production facility. A batch or lot of parts refers to a quantity of parts grouped together for some particular purpose. Typically three different batch types are
spoken of in manufacturing: production batch, move batch, and process batch.
The production batch, also referred to as the production lot, consists of all of
the parts of one type that begin production before a new part type is introduced to
the system. The move or transfer batch is the collection of parts that are grouped

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FIGURE 12.5

321
To
production

Illustration of
(a) production batch,
(b) move batch, and
(c) process batch.

(a) Production batch

(c) Process batch

Station
1

Station
2

Station
3

(b) Move batch

and moved together from one workstation to another. A production batch is often
broken down into smaller move batches. This practice is called lot splitting. The
move batch need not be constant from location to location. In some batch manufacturing systems, for example, a technique called overlapped production is used
to minimize machine idle time and reduce work in process. In overlapped production, a move batch arrives at a workstation where parts are individually
processed. Then instead of accumulating the entire batch before moving on, parts
are sent on individually or in smaller quantities to prevent the next workstation
from being idle while waiting for the entire batch. The process batch is the quantity of parts that are processed simultaneously at a particular operation and usually
consists of a single part. The relationship between these batch types is illustrated
in Figure 12.5.
Deciding which size to use for each particular batch type is usually based on
economic trade-offs between in-process inventory costs and economies of scale
associated with larger batch sizes. Larger batch sizes usually result in lower setup
costs, handling costs, and processing costs. Several commands are provided in ProModel for modeling batching operations such as GROUP, COMBINE, JOIN and LOAD.

12.5.4 Production Control

Production control governs the ow of material between individual workstations.
Simulation helps plan the most effective and efcient method for controlling material ow. Several control methods exist, any of which may work well depending
on the situation. Common methods include
Push control.
Pull control.
Drumbufferrope (DBR) control.

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Push Control
A push system is one in which production is driven by workstation capacity and
material availability. Each workstation seeks to produce as much as it can, pushing nished work forward to the next workstation. In cases where the system is
unconstrained by demand (the demand exceeds system capacity), material can
be pushed without restraint. Usually, however, there is some synchronization of
push with demand. In make-to-stock production, the triggering mechanism is a
drop in nished goods inventory. In make-to-order or assemble-to-order production, a master production schedule drives production by scheduling through a
material requirements planning (MRP) or other backward or forward scheduling
system.
MRP systems determine how much each station should produce for a given
period. Unfortunately, once planned, MRP is not designed to respond to disruptions and breakdowns that occur for that period. Consequently, stations continue
to produce inventory as planned, regardless of whether downstream stations can
absorb the inventory. Push systems such as those resulting from MRP tend to
build up work in process (WIP), creating high inventory-carrying costs and long
ow times.
Pull Control
At the other extreme of a push system is a pull system, in which downstream demand triggers each preceding station to produce a part with no more than one or
two parts at a station at any given time (see Figure 12.6). Pull systems are often
associated with the just-in-time (JIT) or lean manufacturing philosophy, which
advocates the reduction of inventories to a minimum. The basic principle of JIT is
to continuously reduce scrap, lot sizes, inventory, and throughput time as well as
eliminate the waste associated with nonvalue added activities such as material
handling, storage, machine setup, and rework.
FIGURE 12.6
Push versus pull
system.

Station
1

Station
2

Station
3

(a) Push system

Station
1

Station
2

(b) Pull system

Station
3

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A pull system is generally implemented using a method the Japanese call

kanban (translated as ticket). When an operation is completed at the nal location
and exits the location, a new entity or part is pulled from the preceding WIP buffer.
A kanban card accompanies each part bin in the buffer and is returned to the preceding station when the bin moves on. The returned card signals the preceding
operation to pull a unit from its own WIP and replenish the kanban. A kanban system is implemented using either a withdrawal kanban, authorizing the retrieval of
work items, or a production kanban, authorizing the production of more parts.
When modeling a kanban control system, it usually isnt necessary to explicitly model the cards or actual triggering mechanism used (some systems use golf
balls, bins, or even a painted area on the oor). For most JIT systems where ow
is serial, a kanban system is easily modeled by simply limiting the capacity of the
workstation input and output buffers. A two-bin kanban system, for example, can
be modeled by limiting the input buffer capacity of the workstation to two. Ultimately, a kanban system is just a way to limit queue capacities.
Kanban is a queue limiter; that is, it tightly links a providers service with a users
need. Thus, it limits the queue of work in front of the provider (the quantity/amount of
items waiting and the time each item waits). Queue limitation replaces lax ow control with discipline, which results in customer satisfaction and competitive advantage
(Schonberger and Knod 1994).

Because ProModel uses capacity limitations to control the ow of entities,

entities will not advance to the next station until there is available capacity at that
location. This effectively provides a built-in pull system in which the emptying of
a buffer or workstation signals the next waiting entity to advance (push systems
actually work the same way, only buffers effectively have innite capacity). Several papers have been published (Mitra and Mitrani 1990; Wang and Wang 1990)
showing the use of limited buffers to model JIT systems.
For certain pull systems, triggers signal the release of WIP further upstream
than just one station. An example of this is another form of pull control called
CONWIP (Hopp and Spearman 2001). A CONWIP (CONstant Work-In-Process)
system is a form of pull system that pulls from the nal operation. The completion
of a part triggers the release of a new part to the beginning of the line. A CONWIP
system limits work in process just like a kanban system. A new part is introduced to
the system only when a part leaves the system, thus maintaining a constant inventory level. To simulate this process in ProModel, an ORDER statement should be used
whenever an entity exits the system. This signals the creation of a new entity at the
beginning of the line so that each part that exits the system releases a new part into
the system. CONWIP has the advantage over kanban of being easier to administer
while still achieving nearly the same, and sometimes even superior, results.
DrumBufferRope (DBR) Control
One approach to production control utilizes a drumbufferrope (DBR) metaphor.
This technique is based on the theory of constraints and seeks to improve productivity by managing the bottleneck operation. The DBR approach basically lets the
bottleneck operation pace the production rate by acting as a drum. The buffer is

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the inventory needed in front of the bottleneck operation to ensure that it is never
starved for parts. The rope represents the tying or synchronizing of the production
release rate to the rate of the bottleneck operation.
As noted earlier in this chapter, a weakness in constraint-based management is
the inability to predict the level of improvement that can be achieved by eliminating a bottleneck. Simulation can provide this evaluative capability missing in
constraint-based management. It can also help detect oating bottlenecks for situations where the bottleneck changes depending on product mix and production rates.
Simulating DBR control can help determine where bottlenecks are and how much
buffer is needed prior to bottleneck operations to achieve optimum results.

12.5.5 Inventory Control

Inventory control involves the planning, scheduling, and dispatching of inventory
to support the production activity. Because of the high dollar impact of inventory
decisions, developing and maintaining a good inventory control system are critical. Some common goals associated with inventory control at all stages in the supply chain include
Responding promptly to customer demands.
Minimizing order and setup costs associated with supplying inventory.
Minimizing the amount of inventory on hand as well as all associated
inventory carrying costs.
Decisions affecting inventory levels and costs include
How much inventory should be ordered when inventory is replenished
(the economic order quantity)?
When should more inventory be ordered (the reorder point)?
What are the optimum inventory levels to maintain?
There are two common approaches to deciding when to order more inventory and
how much: the reorder point system and the MRP system. A reorder point system is
an inventory control system where inventory for a particular item is replenished to
a certain level whenever it falls below a dened level. MRP, on the other hand, is a
bit more complicated in that it is time phased. This means that inventory is ordered
to match the timing of the demand for products over the next planning horizon.
Inventory management must deal with random depletion or usage times and
random lead times, both of which are easily handled in simulation. To model an
inventory control system, one need only dene the usage pattern, the demand pattern, and the usage policies (priorities of certain demands, batch or incremental
commitment of inventories, and so on). The demand rate can be modeled using
distributions of interarrival times. Replenishment of raw materials should be
made using an ORDER command that is able to generate additional inventory when
it drops below a particular level.
Running the simulation can reveal the detailed rises and drops in inventory
levels as well as inventory summary statistics (average levels, total stockout time,

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and so forth). The modeler can experiment with different replenishment strategies
and usage policies until the best plan is found that meets the established criteria.
Using simulation modeling over traditional, analytic modeling for inventory
planning provides several benets (Browne 1994):
Greater accuracy because actual, observed demand patterns and irregular
inventory replenishments can be modeled.
Greater exibility because the model can be tailored to t the situation
rather than forcing the situation to t the limitations of an existing model.
Easier to model because complex formulas that attempt to capture the
entire problem are replaced with simple arithmetic expressions describing
basic cause-and-effect relationships.
Easier to understand because demand patterns and usage conditions are
more descriptive of how the inventory control system actually works.
Results reect information similar to what would be observed from
operating the actual inventory control system.
More informative output that shows the dynamics of inventory conditions
over time and provides a summary of supply, demand, and shortages.
More suitable for management because it provides what if capability so
alternative scenarios can be evaluated and compared. Charts and graphs
are provided that management can readily understand.
Centralized versus Decentralized Storage. Another inventory-related issue has
to do with the positioning of inventory. Traditionally, inventory was placed in centralized locations for better control. Unfortunately, centralized inventory creates
excessive handling of material and increased response times. More recent trends
are toward decentralized, point-of-use storage, with parts kept where they are
needed. This eliminates needless handling and dramatically reduces response
time. Simulation can effectively assess which method works best and where to
strategically place storage areas to support production requirements.

12.5.6 Supply Chain Management

Supply chain management is a key area for improving efciencies in a corporation. A supply chain is made up of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, and
customers. There are two main goals with respect to supply chain management: to
reduce costs and to improve customer service, which is achieved by reducing delivery time. Supply chain network analysis tools exist that can look at the problem
in the aggregate and help identify optimum site locations and inventory levels
given a general demand. Simulation, on the other hand, can look at the system on
a more detailed level, analyzing the impact of interdependencies and variation
over time. Simulation accurately traces each transaction through the network at
a detailed level, incorporating cost and service impacts of changes in inventory
policies, shipment policies, uncertainty in demand, and other time-dependent
factors (Napolitano 1997).

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Simulation of ow between facilities is similar to the simulation of ow

within a facility. One of the most difcult challenges in modeling a supply chain
is making the ow of entities in the model demand-driven. This is done by using
the ORDER statement, with entities representing the orders waiting to be lled.
Often order or customer consolidation must also be taken into account, which
requires some data management using variables and attributes.

12.5.7 Production Scheduling

Production scheduling determines the start and nish times for jobs to be produced.
The use of simulation for production scheduling is called simulation-based scheduling. Some scheduling is static and determined ahead of time. Other scheduling is
performed dynamically, such as sequencing a set of jobs currently waiting to be
processed at a particular machine. Simulation can help make both types of scheduling decisions and can assess any scheduling rules dened by the modeler. Once
the simulation is run, a report can be generated showing the start and nish times of
each job on each machine. Simulation does not set the schedule itself, but rather reports the schedule resulting from a given set of operating rules and conditions.
Job sequencing is a frequent challenge for job shops, which tend to be very
due-date-driven in their scheduling and are often faced with the question In what
sequence should jobs be processed so as to minimize lateness or tardiness? Suppose, for example, that three jobs are waiting to be processed, each requiring the
same resources but in a different sequence. If the goal is to process the jobs in an
order that will minimize total production time yet still permit on-time delivery,
several simulation runs can be made just before production to nd the optimal
sequence in which the jobs should be processed.
In scheduling, we usually try to achieve four principal goals or objectives
(Kiran and Smith 1984):
1.
2.
3.
4.

Minimize job lateness or tardiness.

Minimize the ow time or time jobs spend in production.
Maximize resource utilization.
Minimize production costs.

The decision of which job to process next is usually based one of the following
rules:
Rule
Shortest processing time
Earliest due date
First-come, rst-served
First-in-system, rst-served
Slack per remaining operations

Denition
Select the job having the least processing time.
Select the job that is due the soonest.
Select the job that has been waiting the longest for this
workstation.
Select the job that has been in the shop the longest.
Select the job with the smallest ratio of slack to operations
remaining to be performed.

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Traditional scheduling methods fail to account for uctuations in quantities

and resource capacity. This variation can be built into simulation models. However, in using simulation for dynamic scheduling, we are dealing with short time
periods and are therefore less concerned about long-term statistical uctuations in
the system such as machine downtimes. In such instances, typically a deterministic simulation is used that is based on expected operation times. Models built for
simulation-based scheduling have the following characteristics:

The model captures an initial state.

Operation times are usually based on expected times.
Anomaly conditions (machine failures and the like) are ignored.
The simulation is run only until the required production has been met.

Simulation can work with material requirements planning (MRP), advanced

planning and scheduling (APS), and manufacturing execution systems (MES) to
simulate the plans generated by these systems in order to test their viability. It can
also produce a detailed schedule showing which resources were used and at what
times. This information can then be used for resource scheduling.
It usually isnt practical to simulate an entire MRP system because the number of different entity types becomes too unmanageable. You should consider
building a model based only on critical product components. You can forget the
small inexpensive items like nuts and bolts, which are usually managed using a reorder point system, and focus on the few components that constitute the major
scheduling challenge. This could provide a reasonably simple model that could
be used regularly to test MRP-generated requirements. Such a model could then
be used to achieve true, closed-loop MRP, in which production schedules could be
iteratively generated and evaluated until the best schedule was found for the available capacity of the system.

12.5.8 Real-Time Control

During actual production, simulation has been integrated with manufacturing
cells to perform real-time analysis such as next task selection and dynamic routing decisions. Initially, a model is built to operate with a simulated version of the
cell, and then the simulated cell components are replaced with the actual cell components. Three benets of using the simulation for cell management are
Logic used in the simulator does not need to be recoded for the controller.
Animation capabilities allow processes to be monitored on the layout.
Statistical-gathering capabilities of simulation automatically provide
statistics on selected measures of performance.

12.5.9 Emulation
A special use of simulation in manufacturing, particularly in automated systems,
has been in the area of hardware emulation. As an emulator, simulation takes

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inputs from the actual control system (such as programmable controllers or microcomputers), mimics the behavior that would take place in the actual system,
and then provides feedback signals to the control system. The feedback signals are
synthetically created rather than coming from the actual hardware devices.
In using simulation for hardware emulation, the control system is essentially
plugged into the model instead of the actual system. The hardware devices are
then emulated in the simulation model. In this way simulation is used to test,
debug, and even rene the actual control system before any or all of the hardware
has been installed. Emulation can signicantly reduce the time to start up new systems and implement changes to automation.
Emulation has the same real-time requirements as when simulation is used
for real-time control. The simulation clock must be synchronized with the real
clock to mimic actual machining and move times.

12.6 Manufacturing Modeling Techniques

In Chapter 7 we presented modeling techniques that apply to a broad range of
systems, including manufacturing systems. Here we discuss a few modeling techniques that are more specic to manufacturing systems.

12.6.1 Modeling Machine Setup

Manufacturing systems often consist of processing equipment that has particular
settings when working on a particular job. A machine setup or changeover occurs
when tooling or other machine adjustments must be made to accommodate the next
item to be processed. Machine setups usually occur only when there is a change of
part type. For example, after running a lot of 200 parts of type A, the machine is
retooled and adjusted for producing a lot of part type B. In some situations, adjustments must be made between processing parts of the same type. When setup is performed between different part types, the time and resources required to perform the
setup may depend on both the part type of the new lot and the part type of the previous lot. For example, the setup time when changing over from part A to part B may
be different than the setup time when changing over from part B to part C.
Setups are easily modeled in ProModel by selecting the Setup option under
the Downtime menu for a location record. Setups can be dened to occur after
every part or only after a change of part type.

12.6.2 Modeling Machine Load and Unload Time

Sometimes a key issue in modeling manufacturing systems is machine load and unload time. There are several approaches to dealing with load/unload activities:
Ignore them. If the times are extremely short relative to the operation
time, it may be safe to ignore load and unload times.
Combine them with the operation time. If loading and unloading the
machine are simply an extension of the operation itself, the load and

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unload times can be tacked onto the operation time. A precaution here is
in semiautomatic machines where an operator is required to load and/or
unload the machine but is not required to operate the machine. If the
operator is nearly always available, or if the load and unload activities
are automated, this may not be a problem.
Model them as a movement or handling activity. If, as just described, an
operator is required to load and unload the machine but the operator is
not always available, the load and unload activities should be modeled as
a separate move activity to and from the location. To be accurate, the part
should not enter or leave the machine until the operator is available. In
ProModel, this would be dened as a routing from the input buffer to the
machine and then from the machine to the output buffer using the
operator as the movement resource.

12.6.3 Modeling Rework and Scrap

It is not uncommon in manufacturing systems to have defective items that require
special treatment. A defective item is usually detected either at an inspection station
or at the station that created the defect. Sometimes part defects are discovered at a
later downstream operation where, for example, the part cant be assembled. In this
case, the downstream workstation doubles as a sort of inspection station. When a
defective item is encountered, a decision is usually made to
Reject the part (in which case it exits the system). This is done by simply
dening a probabilistic routing to EXIT.
Correct the defect at the current station. To model this approach, simply
add an additional WAIT statement to the operation logic that is executed
the percentage of the time defects are expected to occur.
Route the part to an ofine rework station. This is modeled using a
probabilistic routing to the rework station.
Recycle the part through the station that caused the defect. This is also
modeled using a probabilistic routing back to the station that caused the
defect. Sometimes an entity attribute needs to be used to designate
whether this is a rst pass part or a rework part. This is needed when
reworked parts require a different operation time or if they have a
different routing.
The rst consideration when modeling rework operations is to determine
whether they should be included in the model at all. For example, if a part rejection rate is less than 1 percent, it may not be worth including in the model.

12.6.4 Modeling Transfer Machines

Transfer machines are machines that have multiple serial stations that all transfer
their work forward in a synchronized fashion. Transfer machines may be either
rotary or in-line. On a rotary transfer machine, also called a dial-index machine,
the load and unload stations are located next to each other and parts are usually

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FIGURE 12.7
Transfer line system.
Machine

Buffer

Station

Line

placed directly on the station xture. In-line transfer machines have a load station
at one end and an unload station at the other end. Some in-line transfer machines
are coupled together to form a transfer line (see Figure 12.7) in which parts are
placed on system pallets. This provides buffering (nonsynchronization) and even
recirculation of pallets if the line is a closed loop.
Another issue is nding the optimum number of pallets in a closed, nonsynchronous pallet system. Such a system is characterized by a xed number of pallets that continually recirculate through the system. Obviously, the system should
have enough pallets to at least ll every workstation in the system but not so many
that they ll every position in the line (this would result in a gridlock). Generally,
productivity increases as the number of pallets increases up to a certain point,
beyond which productivity levels off and then actually begins to decrease. Studies have shown that the optimal point tends to be close to the sum of all of the
workstation positions plus one-half of the buffer pallet positions.
A typical analysis might be to nd the necessary buffer sizes to ensure that
the system is unaffected by individual failures at least 95 percent of the time. A
similar study might nd the necessary buffer sizes to protect the operation against
the longest tool change time of a downstream operation.
Stations may be modeled individually or collectively, depending on the level
of detail required in the model. Often a series of stations can be modeled as a single location. Operations in a transfer machine can be modeled as a simple operation time if an entire machine or block of synchronous stations is modeled as a
single location. Otherwise, the operation time specication is a bit tricky because
it depends on all stations nishing their operation at the same time. One might initially be inclined simply to assign the time of the slowest operation to every station. Unfortunately, this does not account for the synchronization of operations.
Usually, synchronization requires a timer to be set up for each station that
represents the operation for all stations. In ProModel this is done by dening an
activated subroutine that increments a global variable representing the cycle
completion after waiting for the cycle time. Entities at each station wait for the
variable to be incremented using a WAIT UNTIL statement.

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Modeling Manufacturing Systems

12.6.5 Continuous Process Systems

A continuous process system manufactures product, but in a different way than
discrete part manufacturing systems. Continuous processing involves the production of bulk substances or materials such as chemicals, liquids, plastics, metals,
textiles, and paper (see Figure 12.8).
Pritsker (1986) presents a simulation model in which the level of oil in a
storage tank varies depending on whether oil is being pumped into or out of the
tank. If the rate of ow into or out of the tank is constant, then the change in level
is the rate of ow multiplied by the length of time. If, however, the rate of ow
varies continuously, it is necessary to integrate the function dening the rate of
ow over the time interval concerned (see Figure 12.9).
ProModel provides a tank construct and a set of routines for modeling systems
in process industries. Both constant and variable ow rates can be dened. The
routines provided are ideally suited for modeling combined discrete and continuous activities.
FIGURE 12.8
Continuous ow
system.

FIGURE 12.9
Quantity of ow when
(a) rate is constant and
(b) rate is changing.

Rate of flow
f

Rate of flow
f

t1

t2

Q
F * (t2  t1)

Time

t1

t2
t1

Q =

f dt
2

(a)

(b)

Time

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12.7 Summary
In this chapter we focused on the issues and techniques for modeling manufacturing systems. Terminology common to manufacturing systems was presented and
design issues were discussed. Different applications of simulation in manufacturing were described with examples of each. Issues related to modeling each type of
system were explained and suggestions offered on how system elements for each
system type might be represented in a model.

12.8 Review Questions

1. List four characteristics of manufacturing systems that make them
different from most service systems in the way they are simulated.
2. What is the range of decision making for which simulation is used in
manufacturing systems?
3. How can simulation help in planning the layout of a manufacturing
facility?
4. In modeling automation alternatives, how can simulation reduce the risk of
building a six-lane highway that terminates into a single-lane dirt road?
5. Conceptually, how would you model a pull system where the next
downstream operation is pulling production? Where the completion of a
nal product triggers the start of a new product?
6. What are the characteristics of a simulation model that is used for
production scheduling?
7. How can emulation help test an actual control system?
8. Why would it be invalid to model a synchronous transfer machine by
simply giving all of the stations the same operation time?
9. In ProModel, how would you model an operation with an 85 percent
yield where defective items are routed to a rework station?
10. In ProModel, how would you model a system where items are moved in
batches of 50, but processed individually at each station?

References
Askin, Ronald G., and Charles R. Standridge. Modeling and Analysis of Manufacturing
Systems. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1993.
Berdine, Robert A. FMS: Fumbled Manufacturing Startups? Manufacturing Engineering, July 1993, p. 104.
Bevans, J. P. First, Choose an FMS Simulator. American Machinist, May 1982,
pp. 14445.
Blackburn, J., and R. Millen. Perspectives on Flexibility in Manufacturing: Hardware
versus Software. In Modelling and Design of Flexible Manufacturing Systems, ed.
Andrew Kusiak, pp. 99109. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1986.

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Boehlert, G., and W. J. Trybula. Successful Factory Automation. IEEE Transactions,

September 1984, p. 218.
Bozer, Y. A., and J. A. White. Travel-Time Models for Automated Storage/Retrieval
Systems. IIE Transactions, December 1984, pp. 32938.
Browne, Jim. Analyzing the Dynamics of Supply and Demand for Goods and Services.
Industrial Engineering, June 1994, pp. 1819.
Cutkosky, M.; P. Fussell; and R. Milligan Jr. The Design of a Flexible Machining Cell for
Small Batch Production. Journal of Manufacturing Systems 3, no. 1 (1984), p. 39.
Fitzgerald, K. R. How to Estimate the Number of AGVs You Need. Modern Materials
Handling, October 1985, p. 79.
Gayman, David J. Carving Out a Legend. Manufacturing Engineering, March 1988,
pp. 7579.
Glenney, N. E., and G. T. Mackulak. Modeling and Simulation Provide Key to CIM
Implementation Philosophy. Industrial Engineering, May 1985, p. 84.
Greene, James H. Production and Inventory Control Handbook. New York: McGraw-Hill,
1987.
Groover, Mikell P. Automation, Production Systems, and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing. Englewood Cliffs, NJ; Prentice Hall, 1987, pp. 11929.
Hollier, R. H. The Grouping Concept in Manufacture. International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 1980, pp. 171.
Hopp, Wallace J., and M. Spearman, Factory Physics. New York: Irwin/McGraw-Hill,
2001, p. 180.
Kiran, A. S., and M. L. Smith. Simulation Studies in Job Shop Scheduling: A Survey.
Computers & Industrial Engineering, vol 8(2). 1984, pp. 8793.
Kochan, D. CAM Developments in Computer Integrated Manufacturing. Berlin: SpringerVerlag, 1986.
Langua, Leslie. Simulation and Emulation. Material Handling Engineering, May 1997,
pp. 41 43.
Law, A. M. Introduction to Simulation: A Powerful Tool for Analyzing Complex Manufacturing Systems. Industrial Engineering, May 1986, pp. 5758.
The Material Handling Institute. Consideration for Planning and Installing an Automated
Storage/Retrieval System. Pittsburgh, PA: Material Handling Institute, 1977.
Miller, Richard Kendall. Manufacturing Simulation. Lilburn, GA: The Fairmont Press,
1990.
Miner, R. J. Simulation as a CIM Planning Tool. In Simulation, ed. R. D. Hurrion, p. 73.
Kempston, Bedford, UK: IFS Publications, 1987.
Mitra, Debasis, and Isi Mitrani. Analysis of a Kanban Discipline for Cell Coordination in
Production Lines. Management Science 36, no. 12 (1990), pp. 154866.
Napolitano, Maida. Distribution Network Modeling IIE Solutions, June 1997, pp. 2025.
Noaker, Paula M. Strategic Cell Design. Manufacturing Engineering, March 1993,
pp. 8184.
Pritsker, A. A. B. Introduction to Simulation and Slam II. West Lafayette, IN: Systems
Publishing Corporation, 1986, p. 600.
Renbold, E. V., and R. Dillmann. Computer-Aided Design and Manufacturing Methods
and Tools. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1986.
Schonberger, Richard J., and Edward M. Knod Jr. Operations Management: Continuous
Improvement. 5th ed. Burr Ridge, IL: Richard D. Irwin, 1994.
Suri, R., and C. K. Whitney. Decision Support Requirements in Flexible Manufacturing.
Journal of Manufacturing Systems 3, no. 1 (1984).

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Suzaki, Kiyoshi. The New Manufacturing Challenge: Techniques for Continuous Improvement. New York: Free Press, 1987.
Wang, Hunglin, and Hsu Pin Wang. Determining the Number of Kanbans: A Step Toward
Non-Stock Production. International Journal of Production Research 28, no. 11
(1990), pp. 210115.
Wick, C. Advances in Machining Centers. Manufacturing Engineering, October 1987,
p. 24.
Zisk, B. Flexibility Is Key to Automated Material Transport System for Manufacturing
Cells. Industrial Engineering, November 1983, p. 60.

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13. Modeling Material

Handling Systems

13 MODELING MATERIAL
HANDLING SYSTEMS

Small changes can produce big results, but the areas of highest leverage are
often the least obvious.
Peter Senge

13.1 Introduction
Material handling systems utilize resources to move entities from one location to
another. While material handling systems are not uncommon in service systems,
they are found mainly in manufacturing systems. Apple (1977) notes that material
handling can account for up to 80 percent of production activity. On average, 50
percent of a companys operation costs are material handling costs (Meyers 1993).
Given the impact of material handling on productivity and operation costs, the
importance of making the right material handling decisions should be clear.
This chapter examines simulation techniques for modeling material handling
systems. Material handling systems represent one of the most complicated factors, yet, in many instances, the most important element, in a simulation model.
Conveyor systems and automatic guided vehicle systems often constitute the
backbone of the material ow process. Because a basic knowledge of material
handling technologies and decision variables is essential to modeling material
handling systems, we will briey describe the operating characteristics of each
type of material handling system.

13.2 Material Handling Principles

It is often felt that material handling is a necessary evil and that the ideal system
is one in which no handling is needed. In reality, material handling can be a
tremendous support to the production process if designed properly. Following is a
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list of 10 principles published by the Material Handling Institute as a guide to designing or modifying material handling systems:
1. Planning principle: The plan is the prescribed course of action and how
to get there. At a minimum it should dene what, where, and when so
that the how and who can be determined.
2. Standardization principle: Material handling methods, equipment,
controls, and software should be standardized to minimize variety and
customization.
3. Work principle: Material handling work (volume weight or count per
unit of time distance) should be minimized. Shorten distances and
use gravity where possible.
4. Ergonomic principle: Human factors (physical and mental) and safety
must be considered in the design of material handling tasks and
equipment.
5. Unit load principle: Unit loads should be appropriately sized to achieve
the material ow and inventory objectives.
6. Space utilization principle: Effective and efcient use should be made
of all available (cubic) space. Look at overhead handling systems.
7. System principle: The movement and storage system should be fully
integrated to form a coordinated, operational system that spans receiving,
inspection, storage, production, assembly, packaging, unitizing, order
selection, shipping, transportation, and the handling of returns.
8. Automation principle: Material handling operations should be
mechanized and/or automated where feasible to improve operational
efciency, increase responsiveness, improve consistency and
predictability, decrease operating costs, and eliminate repetitive or
potentially unsafe manual labor.
9. Environmental principle: Environmental impact and energy
consumption should be considered as criteria when designing or
selecting alternative equipment and material handling systems.
10. Life cycle cost principle: A thorough economic analysis should account
for the entire life cycle of all material handling equipment and resulting
systems.

13.3 Material Handling Classication

With over 500 different types of material handling equipment to choose from, the
selection process can be quite staggering. We shall not attempt here to describe or
even list all of the possible types of equipment. Our primary interest is in modeling
material handling systems, so we are interested only in the general categories of
equipment having common operating characteristics. Material handling systems

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are traditionally classied into one of the following categories (Tompkins et al.
1996):
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Conveyors.
Industrial vehicles.
Automated storage/retrieval systems.
Carousels.
Automatic guided vehicle systems.
Cranes and hoists.
Robots.

Missing from this list is hand carrying, which still is practiced widely if for no
other purpose than to load and unload machines.

13.4 Conveyors
A conveyor is a track, rail, chain, belt, or some other device that provides continuous movement of loads over a xed path. Conveyors are generally used for highvolume movement over short to medium distances. Some overhead or towline
systems move material over longer distances. Overhead systems most often move
parts individually on carriers, especially if the parts are large. Floor-mounted conveyors usually move multiple items at a time in a box or container. Conveyor speeds
generally range from 20 to 80 feet per minute, with high-speed sortation conveyors
reaching speeds of up to 500 fpm in general merchandising operations.
Conveyors may be either gravity or powered conveyors. Gravity conveyors
are easily modeled as queues because that is their principal function. The more
challenging conveyors to model are powered conveyors, which come in a variety
of types.

13.4.1 Conveyor Types

Conveyors are sometimes classied according to function or conguration:
Accumulation conveyora conveyor that permits loads to queue up
behind each other.
Transport conveyora conveyor that transports loads from one point to
another; usually nonaccumulating.
Sortation conveyora conveyor that provides diverting capability to
divert loads off the conveyor.
Recirculating conveyora conveyor loop that causes loads to recirculate
until they are ready for diverting.
Branching conveyora conveyor that is characterized by a main line
with either merging or diverging branches or spurs. Branches may, in
turn, have connected spurs or branches.

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There are many different types of conveyors based on physical characteristics.

Among the most common types are the belt, roller, chain, trolley, power-and-free,
tow, and monorail conveyors. A brief description will be given of each of these
types.
Belt Conveyors. Belt conveyors have a circulating belt on which loads are carried. Because loads move on a common span of fabric, if the conveyor stops, all
loads must stop. Belt conveyors are often used for simple load transport.
Roller Conveyors. Some roller conveyors utilize rollers that may be dead if
the bed is placed on a grade to enable the effect of gravity on the load to actuate
the rollers. However, many roller conveyors utilize live or powered rollers to
convey loads. Roller conveyors are often used for simple load accumulation.
Chain Conveyors. Chain conveyors are much like a belt conveyor in that one or
more circulating chains convey loads. Chain conveyors are sometimes used in
combination with roller conveyors to provide right-angle transfers for heavy
loads. A pop-up section allows the chains running in one direction to comb
through the rollers running in a perpendicular direction.
Trolley Conveyors. A trolley conveyor consists of a series of trolleys (small
wheels) that ride along a track and are connected by a chain, cable, or rod. Load
carriers are typically suspended from the trolleys. The trolleys, and hence the load
carriers, continually move so that the entire system must be stopped to bring a single load to a stop. No accumulation can take place on the conveyor itself. Parts are
frequently loaded and unloaded onto trolley conveyors while the carriers are in
motion (usually not faster than 30 fpm). However, because a trolley conveyor
can be designed with a vertical dip, it can descend to automatically load a part.
Automatic unloading is simpler. A carrier can be tipped to discharge a load or a
cylinder can be actuated to push a load off a carrier onto an accumulation device.
Discharge points can be programmed.
Power-and-Free Conveyors. Power-and-free conveyors consist of two parallel
trolley systems, one of which is powered while trolleys in the other system are
nonpowered and free-moving. Loads are attached to the free trolleys and a dog
or engaging pin on the powered trolleys engages and disengages the passive free
trolleys to cause movement and stoppage. In some power-and-free systems, engaged load trolleys will automatically disengage themselves from the power line
when they contact carriers ahead of them. This allows loads to be accumulated. In
the free state, loads can be moved by hand or gravity; they can be switched,
banked, or merely delayed for processing.
Tow Conveyors. A tow conveyor or towline system is an endless chain running
overhead in a track or on or beneath the ground in a track. The chain has a dog or
other device for pulling (towing) wheeled carts on the oor. Towlines are best

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suited for applications where precise handling is unimportant. Tow carts are relatively inexpensive compared to powered vehicles; consequently, many of them
can be added to a system to increase throughput and be used for accumulation.
An underoor towline uses a tow chain in a trough under the oor. The chain
moves continuously, and cart movement is controlled by extending a drive pin
from the cart down into the chain. At specic points along the guideway,
computer-operated stopping mechanisms raise the drive pins to halt cart movement. One advantage of this system is that it can provide some automatic buffering with stationary carts along the track.
Towline systems operate much like power-and-free systems, and, in fact,
some towline systems are simply power-and-free systems that have been inverted.
By using the oor to support the weight, heavier loads can be transported.
Monorail Conveyors. Automatic monorail systems have self-powered carriers
that can move at speeds of up to 300 fpm. In this respect, a monorail system is
more of a discrete unit movement system than a conveyor system. Travel can be
disengaged automatically in accumulation as the leading beaver tail contacts
the limit switch on the carrier in front of it.

13.4.2 Operational Characteristics

The operational characteristics of conveyor systems are distinctly different from
those of other material handling systems. Some of the main distinguishing features pertain to the nature of load transport, how capacity is determined, and how
entity pickup and delivery occur.
Load Transport. A conveyor spans the distance of travel along which loads
move continuously, while other systems consist of mobile devices that move one
or more loads as a batch move.
Capacity. The capacity of a conveyor is determined by the speed and load spacing rather than by having a stated capacity. Specically, it is a function of the minimum allowable interload spacing (which is the length of a queue position in the
case of accumulation conveyors) and the length of the conveyor. In practice, however, this may never be reached because the conveyor speed may be so fast that
loads are unable to transfer onto the conveyor at the minimum allowable spacing.
Furthermore, intentional control may be imposed on the number of loads that are
permitted on a particular conveyor section.
Entity Pickup and Delivery. Conveyors usually dont pick up and drop off
loads, as in the case of lift trucks, pallet jacks, or hand carrying, but rather loads
are typically placed onto and removed from conveyors. Putting a load onto an
input spur of a branching conveyor and identifying the load to the system so it can
enter the conveyor system is commonly referred to as load induction (the spur is
called an induction conveyor).

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13.4.3 Modeling Conveyor Systems

Depending on the nature of the conveyor and its operation, modeling a conveyor
can range from fairly straightforward to extremely complex. For single conveyor
sections, modeling is very simple. Branching and recirculating conveyors, on the
other hand, give rise to several complexities (recirculation, merging, and so on)
that make it nearly impossible to predict how the system will perform. These
types of conveyors make especially good problems for simulation.
From a modeling standpoint, a conveyor may be classied as being either accumulation or nonaccumulation (also referred to as accumulating or nonaccumulating), with either xed or random load spacing (see Table 13.1).
Accumulation Conveyors. Accumulation conveyors are a class of conveyors
that provide queuing capability so that if the lead load stops, succeeding loads still
advance along the conveyor and form a queue behind the stopped part. Accumulation conveyors permit independent or nonsynchronous part movement and
therefore maximize part carrying capacity.
Nonaccumulation Conveyors. Nonaccumulation or simple transport conveyors
are usually powered conveyors having a single drive such that all movement on
the conveyor occurs in unison, or synchronously. If a load must be brought to a
stop, the entire conveyor and every load on it is also brought to a stop. When the
conveyor starts again, all load movement resumes.
Fixed Spacing. Conveyors with xed load spacing, sometimes referred to as
segmented conveyors, require that loads be introduced to the conveyor at xed
intervals. Tow conveyors and power-and-free conveyors, which have xed spaced
dogs that engage and disengage a part carrying cart or trolley, are examples of accumulation conveyors with xed load spacing. Trolley conveyors with hanging
carriers at xed intervals or tray conveyors with permanently attached trays at
xed intervals are examples of nonaccumulation conveyors with xed spacing.
Random Load Spacing. Random load spacing permits parts to be placed at any
distance from another load on the same conveyor. A powered roller conveyor is a
common example of an accumulation conveyor with random load spacing. Powered conveyors typically provide noncontact accumulation, while gravity conveyors provide contact accumulation (that is, the loads accumulate against each

TABLE 13.1 Types of Conveyors for Modeling Purposes

Fixed Spacing
Random Spacing

Accumulation

Nonaccumulation

Power-and-free, towline
Roller, monorail

Trolley, sortation
Belt, chain

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other). A powered belt conveyor is a typical example of a nonaccumulation conveyor with random spacing. Parts may be interjected anywhere on the belt, and
when the belt stops, all parts stop.
Performance Measures and Decision Variables. Throughput capacity, delivery
time, and queue lengths (for accumulation conveyors) are performance measures in
conveyor system simulation. Several issues that are addressed in conveyor analysis include conveyor speed, accumulation capacity, and the number of carriers.
Questions to Be Answered. Common questions that simulation can help answer
in designing and operating a conveyor system are
What is the minimum conveyor speed that still meets throughput
requirements?
What is the throughput capacity of the conveyor?
What is the load delivery time for different activity levels?
How much queuing is needed on accumulation conveyors?
How many carriers are needed on a trolley or power-and-free conveyor?
What is the optimum number of pallets that maximizes productivity in a
recirculating conveyor?

13.4.4 Modeling Single-Section Conveyors

Conveyors used for simple queuing or buffering often consist of a single stretch
or section of conveyor. Loads enter at one end and are removed at the other end.
Load spacing is generally random. These types of conveyors are quite easy to
model, especially using simulation products that provide conveyor constructs. In
ProModel, a conveyor is simply a type of location. The modeler merely denes
the length and speed and states whether the conveyor is an accumulation conveyor
or nonaccumulation conveyor. Since a conveyor is just a location, routings can be
dened to and from a conveyor. Operations can be dened at either the beginning
or end of a conveyor.
If the simulation product being used does not have a conveyor construct, a
simple accumulation conveyor can be modeled as a queue with a delay time equal
to the time it takes to move from the beginning to the end. This can also be easily
done in ProModel. For nonaccumulation conveyors the approach is more difcult.
Henriksen and Schriber (1986) present a simple yet accurate approach to modeling single sections of accumulation and nonaccumulation conveyors with random
load spacing and no branching or merging.
While these simplied approaches may be adequate for rough modeling of
single conveyor sections in which parts enter at one end and exit at the other, they
are inadequate for a conveyor system in which parts are continuously branching
and merging onto conveyor sections. This type of system requires continuous
tracking, which, in many discrete-oriented simulation languages, gets very complex or tends to be impractical.

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13.4.5 Modeling Conveyor Networks

A conveyor network consists of two or more sections that are connected together
to enable part merging, diverting, and recirculating. In such instances, a conveyor
may have one or more entry points and one or more exit points. Furthermore, part
entry and exit may not always be located at extreme opposite ends of the
conveyor.
Conveyor networks are modeled in ProModel by placing conveyors next to
each other and dening routings from one conveyor to the next. Branching is limited in ProModel in that entities can enter a conveyor only at the beginning and
exit at the end. This may require breaking a conveyor into multiple sections to
accommodate branching in the middle of a conveyor.
Conveyor networks may provide alternative routes to various destinations.
Part movement time on a conveyor often is determinable only by modeling
the combined effect of the conveying speed, the length of the conveyor, the
load spacing requirements, the connecting conveyor logic, and any conveyor
transfer times. The trafc and conveyor dynamics ultimately determine the
move time.

13.5 Industrial Vehicles

Industrial vehicles include all push or powered carts and vehicles that generally
have free movement. Powered vehicles such as lift trucks are usually utilized for
medium-distance movement of batched parts in a container or pallet. For short
moves, manual or semipowered carts are useful. Single-load transporters are
capable of moving only one load at a time from one location to another. Such
devices are fairly straightforward to model because they involve only a single
source and a single destination for each move. Multiple-load transporters, on the
other hand, can move more than one load at a time from one or more sources to
one or more destinations. Dening the capacity and operation for multiple-load
transporters can be extremely difcult because there are special rules dening
when to retrieve additional loads and when to deliver the loads already on
board. One example of a multiple-load transporter is a picking transporter,
which simply may be a person pushing a cart through a part storage area loading several different part types onto the cart. These parts may then be delivered
to a single destination, such as when lling a customer order, or to several destinations, such as the replenishment of stock along a production line. Towing
vehicles are another example of this type of transporter. A towing vehicle pulls
a train of carts behind it that may haul several loads at once. Towing vehicles
may have a single pickup and drop point for each move similar to a unit-load
transporter; however, they are also capable of making several stops, picking up
multiple loads, and then delivering them to several remote locations. Such an
operation can become extremely complex to incorporate into a generalized
simulation language.

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13.5.1 Modeling Industrial Vehicles

Modeling an industrial vehicle involves modeling a resource that moves along a
path network. Paths are typically open aisles in which bidirectional movement is
possible and passing is permitted. Some powered vehicles operate on a unidirectional track. Deployment strategies (work searches, idle vehicle parking, and so
on) must be capable of being incorporated into the model, similar to that of an automated guided vehicle system (AGVS), described later.
Because industrial vehicles are often human-operated, they may take breaks
and be available only during certain shifts.
Common performance measures that are of interest when modeling industrial
vehicles include
Vehicle utilization.
Response time.
Move rate capability.
Decision variables that are tested for industrial vehicles include
Number of vehicles.
Task prioritization.
Empty vehicle positioning.
Typical questions to be answered regarding industrial vehicles are
What is the required number of vehicles to handle the required activity?
What is the best deployment of vehicles to maximize utilization?
What is the best deployment of empty vehicles to minimize response time?

13.6 Automated Storage/Retrieval Systems

An automated storage/retrieval system (AS/RS) consists of one or more automated storage/retrieval machines that store and retrieve material to and from a
storage facility such as a storage rack. Because it is automated, the system operates under computer control. The goal of an AS/RS is to provide random, highdensity storage with quick load access, all under computer control.
An AS/RS is characterized by one or more aisles of rack storage having one or
more storage/retrieval (S/R) machines (sometimes called vertical or stacker cranes)
that store and retrieve material into and out of a rack storage system. Material is
picked up for storage by the S/R machine at an input (pickup) station. Retrieved material is delivered by the S/R machine to an output (deposit) station to be taken away.
Usually there is one S/R machine per aisle; however, there may also be one S/R
machine assigned to two or more aisles or perhaps even two S/R machines assigned
to a single aisle. For higher storage volume, some AS/RSs utilize double-deep storage, which may require load shufing to access loads. Where even higher storage

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density is required and longer-term storage is needed, multidepth or deep lane storage systems are used. AS/RSs that use pallet storage racks are usually referred to as
unit-load systems, while bin storage rack systems are known as miniload systems.
The throughput capacity of an AS/RS is a function of the rack conguration
and speed of the S/R machine. Throughput is measured in terms of how many single or dual cycles can be performed per hour. A single cycle is measured as the
average time required to pick up a load at the pickup station, store the load in a
rack location, and return to the pickup station. A dual cycle is the time required to
pick up a load at the input station, store the load in a rack location, retrieve a load
from another rack location, and deliver the load to the output station. Obviously,
there is considerable variation in cycle times due to the number of different possible rack locations that can be accessed. If the AS/RS is a stand-alone system with
no critical interface with another system, average times are adequate for designing the system. If, however, the system interfaces with other systems such as
front-end or remote-picking stations, it is important to take into account the variability in cycle times.

13.6.1 Conguring an AS/RS

Conguring an AS/RS depends primarily on the storage/retrieval or throughput
activity that is required and the amount of storage space needed. Other considerations are building constraints in length, width, and height (especially if it is an
existing facility); crane height limitations; and cost factors (a square building is
less costly than a rectangular one).
Conguring an AS/RS is essentially an iterative process that converges on a
solution that meets both total storage requirements and total throughput requirements. Once the number of rack locations is calculated based on storage
requirements, an estimate of the number of aisles is made based on throughput
requirements. This usually assumes a typical throughput rate of, say, 20 dual
cycles per hour and assumes that one S/R machine is assigned to an aisle. If, for
example, the required throughput is 100 loads in and 100 loads out per hour, an
initial conguration would probably be made showing ve aisles. If, however, it
was shown using an AS/RS simulator or other analytical technique that the
throughput capacity was only 15 cycles per hour due to the large number of rack
openings required, the number of aisles may be increased to seven or eight and
analyzed again. This process is repeated until a solution is found.
Occasionally it is discovered that the throughput requirement is extremely
low relative to the number of storage locations in the system. In such situations,
rather than have enormously long aisles, a person-aboard system will be used in
which operator-driven vehicles will be shared among several aisles, or perhaps
double-deep storage racks will be used.
Computerized Cycle Time Calculations
It is often thought necessary to simulate an AS/RS in order to determine throughput capacity. This is because the S/R machine accesses random bins or rack

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locations, making the cycle time extremely difcult to calculate. The problem is
further compounded by mixed single (pickup and store or retrieve and deposit)
and dual (pickup, storage, retrieval, and deposit) cycles. Activity zoning, in which
items are stored in assigned zones based on frequency of use, also complicates
cycle time calculations. The easiest way to accurately determine the cycle time
for an AS/RS is by using a computer to enumerate the possible movements of the
S/R machine from the pickup and delivery (P&D) stand to every rack or bin
location. This produces an empirical distribution for the single cycle time. For
dual cycle times, an intermediate cycle timethe time to go from any location to
any other locationmust be determined. For a rack 10 tiers high and 40 bays
long, this can be 400 400, or 160,000, calculations! Because of the many
calculations, sometimes a large sample size is used to develop the distribution.
Most suppliers of automated storage/retrieval systems have computer programs
for calculating cycle times that can be generated based on a dened conguration
in a matter of minutes.
Analytical Cycle Time Calculations
Analytical solutions have been derived for calculating system throughput based
on a given aisle conguration. Such solutions often rely on simplied assumptions about the operation of the system. Bozer and White (1984), for example,
derive an equation for estimating single and dual cycle times assuming (1) randomized storage, (2) equal rack opening sizes, (3) P&D location at the base level
on one end, (4) constant horizontal and vertical speeds, and (5) simultaneous horizontal and vertical rack movement. In actual practice, rack openings are seldom
of equal size, and horizontal and vertical accelerations can have a signicant
inuence on throughput capacity.
While analytical solutions to throughput estimation may provide a rough
approximation for simple congurations, other congurations become extremely
difcult to estimate. In addition, there are control strategies that may improve
throughput rate, such as retrieving the load on the order list that is closest to the
load just stored or storing a load in an opening that is closest to the next load to
be retrieved. Finally, analytical solutions provide not a distribution of cycle times
but merely a single expected time, which is inadequate for analyzing AS/RSs that
interface with other systems.
AS/RS with Picking Operations
Whereas some AS/RSs (especially unit-load systems) have loads that are not
captive to the system, many systems (particularly miniload systems) deliver bins
or pallets either to the end of the aisle or to a remote area where material is
picked from the bin or pallet, which is then returned for storage. Remote picking
is usually achieved by linking a conveyor system to the AS/RS where loads are
delivered to remote picking stations. In this way, containers stored in any aisle
can be delivered to any workstation. This permits entire orders to be picked at a
single station and eliminates the two-step process of picking followed by order
consolidation.

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Where picking takes place is an important issue achieving the highest productivity from both AS/RS and picker. Both are expensive resources, and it is
undesirable to have either one waiting on the other.

13.6.2 Modeling AS/RSs

Simulation ofAS/RSs has been a popular area of application for simulation. Ford developed a simulator called GENAWS as early as 1972. IBM developed one in 1973
called the IBM WAREHOUSE SIMULATOR. Currently, most simulation of
AS/RSs is performed by vendors of the systems. Typical inputs for precision modeling of single-deep AS/RSs with each aisle having a captive S/R machine include

Number of aisles.
Number of S/R machines.
Rack conguration (bays and tiers).
Bay or column width.
Tier or row height.
Input point(s).
Output point(s).
Zone boundaries and activity prole if activity zoning is utilized.
S/R machine speed and acceleration/deceleration.
Pickup and deposit times.
Downtime and repair time characteristics.

At a simple level, an AS/RS move time may be modeled by taking a time from a
probability distribution that approximates the time to store or retrieve a load. More
precise modeling incorporates the actual crane (horizontal) and lift (vertical)
speeds. Each movement usually has a different speed and distance to travel, which
means that movement along one axis is complete before movement along the other
axis. From a modeling standpoint, it is usually necessary to calculate and model
only the longest move time.
In modeling an AS/RS, the storage capacity is usually not a consideration and
the actual inventory of the system is not modeled. It would require lots of overhead to model the complete inventory in a rack with 60,000 pallet locations.
Because only the activity is of interest in the simulation, actual inventory is
ignored. In fact, it is usually not even necessary to model specic stock keeping
units (SKUs) being stored or retrieved, but only to distinguish between load types
insofar as they affect routing and subsequent operations.
Common performance measures that are of interest in simulating an AS/RS
include
S/R machine utilization.
Response time.
Throughput capability.

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Decision variables on which the modeler conducts experiments include

Rack conguration and number of aisles.

Storage and retrieval sequence and priorities.
First-in, rst-out or closest item retrieval.
Empty S/R machine positioning.
Aisle selection (random, round robin, or another method).

Typical questions addressed in simulation of an AS/RS include

What is the required number of aisles to handle the required activity?
Should storage activity be performed at separate times from retrieval
activity, or should they be intermixed?
How can dual cycling (combining a store with a retrieve) be maximized?
What is the best stationing of empty S/R machines to minimize
response time?
How can activity zoning (that is, storing fast movers closer than slow
movers) improve throughput?
How is response time affected by peak periods?

13.7 Carousels
One class of storage and retrieval systems is a carousel. Carousels are essentially
moving racks that bring the material to the retriever (operator or robot) rather than
sending a retriever to the rack location.

13.7.1 Carousel Congurations

A carousel storage system consists of a collection of bins that revolve in either a
horizontal or vertical direction. The typical front-end activity on a carousel is order
picking. If carousels are used for WIP storage, bins might enter and leave the
carousel. The average time to access a bin in a carousel is usually equal to one-half
of the revolution time. If bidirectional movement is implemented, average access
time is reduced to one-fourth of the revolution time. These times can be further reduced if special storing or ordering schemes are used to minimize access time.
A variation of the carousel is a rotary rack consisting of independently operating tiers. Rotary racks provide the added advantage of being able to position another
bin into place while the operator is picking out of a bin from a different tier.

13.7.2 Modeling Carousels

Carousels are easily modeled by dening an appropriate response time representing the time for the carousel to bring a bin into position for picking. In addition to

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response times, carousels may have capacity considerations. The current contents
may even affect response time, especially if the carousel is used to store multiple
bins of the same item such as WIP storage. Unlike large AS/RSs, storage capacity
may be an important issue in modeling carousel systems.

13.8 Automatic Guided Vehicle Systems

An automatic guided vehicle system (AGVS) is a path network along which
computer-controlled, driverless vehicles transport loads. AGV systems are usually used for medium activity over medium distances. If parts are large, they are
moved individually; otherwise parts are typically consolidated into a container or
onto a pallet. Operationally, an AGVS is more exible than conveyors, which provide xed-path, xed-point pickup and delivery. However, they cannot handle the
high activity rates of a conveyor. On the other extreme, an AGVS is not as exible as industrial vehicles, which provide open-path, any-point pickup and delivery. However, an AGVS can handle higher activity rates and eliminate the need
for operators. AGVSs provide a exible yet dened path of movement and allow
pickup and delivery between any one of many xed points, except for where certain points have been specically designated as pickup or drop-off points.
AGVs are controlled by either a central computer, onboard computers, or a
combination of the two. AGVs with onboard microprocessors are capable of
having maps of the system in their memories. They can direct their own routing
and blocking and can communicate with other vehicles if necessary. Some AGVs
travel along an inductive guide path, which is a wire buried a few inches beneath
the oor. Newer systems are non-wire guided. Travel is generally unidirectional
to avoid trafc jams, although occasionally a path might be bidirectional.
The AGVS control system must make such decisions as what vehicle to dispatch to pick up a load, what route to take to get to the pickup point, what to do if
the vehicle gets blocked by another vehicle, what to do with idle vehicles, and
how to avoid collisions at intersections.
AGVs have acceleration and deceleration, and speeds often vary depending
on whether vehicles are full or empty and whether they are on a turn or a stretch.
There is also a time associated with loading and unloading parts. Furthermore,
loaded vehicles may stop at points along the path for operations to be performed
while the load is on the vehicle. One or more vehicles may be in a system, and
more than one system may share common path segments. AGVs stop periodically
for battery recharging and may experience unscheduled failures.
One of the modeling requirements of AGVSs is to accurately describe the
method for controlling trafc and providing anticollision control. This is usually accomplished in one of two ways: (1) onboard vehicle sensing or (2) zone blocking.
Onboard vehicle sensing works by having a sensor detect the presence of a
vehicle ahead and stop until it detects that the vehicle ahead has moved. This is
usually accomplished using a light beam and receiver on the front of each vehicle
with a reective target on the rear of each.

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In zone blocking, the guide path is divided into various zones (segments) that
allow no more than one vehicle at a time. Zones can be set up using a variety of
different sensing and communication techniques. When one vehicle enters a zone,
other vehicles are prevented from entering until the current vehicle occupying the
zone leaves. Once the vehicle leaves, any vehicle waiting for access to the freed
zone can resume travel.

13.8.1 Designing an AGVS

When designing an AGV system, the rst step is to identify all of the pickup and
drop-off points. Next the path should be laid out. In laying out the guide path, several principles of good design should be followed (Askin and Standridge 1993):
Travel should be unidirectional in the form of one or more recirculating
loops unless trafc is very light. This avoids deadlock in trafc.
Pickup stations should be downstream of drop-off stations. This enables
an AGV to pick up a load, if available, whenever a load is dropped off.
Pickup and deposit stations should generally be placed on spurs unless
trafc is extremely light. This prevents AGVs from being blocked.
Crossover paths should be used occasionally if measurable reductions in
travel times can be achieved.
Once the path has been congured, a rough estimate is made of the number of
AGVs required. This is easily done by looking at the total travel time required per
hour, dividing it by the number of minutes in an hour (60), and multiplying it by
1 plus a trafc allowance factor:
AGV =

Total AGV minutes

(1 + Trafc allowance)
60 minutes/hour

The trafc allowance is a percentage factored into the vehicle requirements to

reect delays caused by waiting at intersections, rerouting due to congestion, or
some other delay. This factor is a function of both poor path layout and quantity
of vehicles and may vary anywhere from 0 in the case of a single-vehicle system
to around 15 percent in congested layouts with numerous vehicles (Fitzgerald
1985).
The total vehicle minutes are determined by looking at the average required
number of pickups and deposits per hour and converting this into the number of
minutes required for one vehicle to perform these pickups and drop-offs. It is
equal to the sum of the total empty move time, the total full move time, and the
total pickup and deposit time for every delivery. Assuming I pickup points and
J drop-off points, the total vehicle time can be estimated by


I

J


Distancei j
Total vehicle minutes =
2
+ Pickupi + Depositj
Avg. speedi j
i=1 j=1
Deliveriesi j

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The expression
2

Distancei j
Avg. speedi j

implies that the time required to travel to the point of pickup (empty travel time) is
the same as the time required to travel to the point of deposit (full travel time). This
assumption provides only an estimate of the time required to travel to a point of
pickup because it is uncertain where a vehicle will be coming from. In most cases,
this should be a conservative estimate because (1) vehicles usually follow a work
search routine in which the closest loads are picked up rst and (2) vehicles
frequently travel faster when empty than when full. A more accurate way of calculating empty load travel for complex systems is to use a compound weightedaveraging technique that considers all possible empty moves together with their
probabilities (Fitzgerald 1985).

13.8.2 Controlling an AGVS

A multivehicle AGVS can be quite complex and expensive, so it is imperative
that the system be well managed to achieve the utilization and level of productivity desired. Part of the management problem is determining the best deployment
strategy or dispatching rules used. Some of these operating strategies are discussed next.
AGV Selection Rules. When a load is ready to be moved by an AGV and more
than one AGV is available for executing the move, a decision must be made as to
which vehicle to use. The most common selection rule is a closest rule in which
the nearest available vehicle is selected. This rule is intended to minimize empty
vehicle travel time as well as to minimize the part waiting time. Other less
frequently used vehicle selection rules include longest idle vehicle and least utilized vehicle.
Work Search Rules. If a vehicle becomes available and two or more parts are
waiting to be moved, a decision must be made as to which part should be moved
rst. A number of rules are used to make this decision, each of which can be
effective depending on the production objective. Common rules used for dispatching an available vehicle include

Longest-waiting load.
Closest waiting load.
Highest-priority load.
Most loads waiting at a location.

Vehicle Parking Rules. If a transporter delivers a part and no other parts are
waiting for pickup, a decision must be made relative to the deployment of the
transporter. For example, the vehicle can remain where it is, or it can be sent to a
more strategic location where it is likely to be needed next. If several transport

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vehicles are idle, it may be desirable to have a prioritized list for a vehicle to follow for alternative parking preferences.
Work Zoning. In some cases it may be desirable to keep a vehicle captive to a
particular area of production and not allow it to leave this area unless it has work
to deliver elsewhere. In this case, the transporter must be given a zone boundary
within which it is capable of operating.

13.8.3 Modeling an AGVS

Modeling an AGVS is very similar to modeling an industrial vehicle (which it is in
a sense) except that the operation is more controlled with less freedom of movement. Paths are generally unidirectional, and no vehicle passing is allowed.
One of the challenges in modeling an AGVS in the past has been nding the
shortest routes between any two stops in a system. Current state-of-the-art simulation software, like ProModel, provides built-in capability to automatically determine the shortest routes between points in a complex network. Alternatively,
the modeler may want to have the capability to explicitly dene a set of paths for
getting from one location to another.
Common performance measures that are of interest when modeling AGV
systems include

Resource utilization.
Load throughput rate.
Response time.
Vehicle congestion.

In addition to the obvious purpose of simulating an AGVS to nd out if the number of vehicles is sufcient or excessive, simulation can also be used to determine
the following:

Number of vehicles.
Work search rules.
Park search rules.
Placement of crossover and bypass paths.

Typical questions that simulation can help answer include

What is the best path layout to minimize travel time?

Where are the potential bottleneck areas?
How many vehicles are needed to meet activity requirements?
What are the best scheduled maintenance/recharging strategies?
Which task assignment rules maximize vehicle utilization?
What is the best idle vehicle deployment that minimizes response time?
Is there any possibility of deadlocks?
Is there any possibility of collisions?

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13.9 Cranes and Hoists

Cranes are oor-, ceiling-, or wall-mounted mechanical devices generally used
for short- to medium-distance, discrete movement of material. Cranes utilize a
hoist mechanism for attaching and positioning loads. Aside from bridge and
gantry cranes, most other types of cranes and hoists can be modeled as an industrial vehicle. Since a gantry crane is just a simple type of bridge crane that is oormounted, our discussion here will be limited to bridge cranes. A bridge crane consists of a beam that bridges a bay (wall to wall). This beam or bridge moves on
two tracks mounted on either wall. A retracting hoist unit travels back and forth
under the bridge, providing a total of three axes of motion (gantry cranes have
similar movement, only the runway is oor-mounted).

13.9.1 Crane Management

Managing crane movement requires an understanding of the priority of loads to be
moved as well as the move characteristics of the crane. One must nd the optimum
balance of providing adequate response time to high-priority moves while maximizing the utilization of the crane. Crane utilization is maximized when drop-offs
are always combined with a nearby pickup. Crane management becomes more
complicated when (as is often the case) two or more cranes operate in the same
bay or envelope of space. Pritsker (1986) identies typical rules derived from
practical experience for managing bridge cranes sharing the same runway:
1. Cranes moving to drop points have priority over cranes moving to
pickup points.
2. If two cranes are performing the same type of function, the crane that
was assigned its task earliest is given priority.
3. To break ties on rules 1 and 2, the crane closest to its drop-off point is
given priority.
4. Idle cranes are moved out of the way of cranes that have been given
assignments.
These rules tend to minimize the waiting time of loaded cranes and maximize
crane throughput.

13.9.2 Modeling Bridge Cranes

For single cranes a simple resource can be dened that moves along a path that is
the resultant of the x and y movement of the bridge and hoist. For more precise
modeling or for managing multiple cranes in a runway, it is preferable to utilize
built-in crane constructs. ProModel provides powerful bridge crane modeling capabilities that greatly simplify bridge crane modeling.
Common performance measures when simulating a crane include
Crane utilization.
Load movement rate.

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Response time.
Percentage of time blocked by another crane.
Decision variables that become the basis for experimentation include
Work search rules.
Park search rules.
Multiple-crane priority rules.
Typical questions addressed in a simulation model involving cranes include
Which task assignment rules maximize crane utilization?
What idle crane parking strategy minimizes response time?
How much time are cranes blocked in a multicrane system?

13.10 Robots
Robots are programmable, multifunctional manipulators used for handling material or manipulating a tool such as a welder to process material. Robots are often
classied based on the type of coordinate system on which they are based: cylindrical, cartesian, or revolute. The choice of robot coordinate system depends on
the application. Cylindrical or polar coordinate robots are generally more appropriate for machine loading. Cartesian coordinate robots are easier to equip with
tactile sensors for assembly work. Revolute or anthropomorphic coordinate robots have the most degrees of freedom (freedom of movement) and are especially
suited for use as a processing tool, such as for welding or painting. Because cartesian or gantry robots can be modeled easily as cranes, our discussion will focus on
cylindrical and revolute robots. When used for handling, cylindrical or revolute
robots are generally used to handle a medium level of movement activity over
very short distances, usually to perform pick-and-place or load/unload functions.
Robots generally move parts individually rather than in a consolidated load.
One of the applications of simulation is in designing the cell control logic for
a robotic work cell. A robotic work cell may be a machining, assembly, inspection, or a combination cell. Robotic cells are characterized by a robot with 3 to
5 degrees of freedom surrounded by workstations. The workstation is fed parts
by an input conveyor or other accumulation device, and parts exit from the cell
on a similar device. Each workstation usually has one or more buffer positions to
which parts are brought if the workstation is busy. Like all cellular manufacturing, a robotic cell usually handles more than one part type, and each part type
may not have to be routed through the same sequence of workstations. In addition to part handling, the robot may be required to handle tooling or xtures.

13.10.1 Robot Control

Robotic cells are controlled by algorithms that determine the sequence of activities for the robot to perform. This control is developed ofine using algorithms for

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selecting what activity to perform. The sequence of activities performed by the

robot can be either a xed sequence of moves that is continually repeated or a dynamically determined sequence of moves, depending on the status of the cell. For
xed-sequence logic, the robot control software consists of a sequence of commands that are executed sequentially. Dynamic sequence selection is programmed
using ifthen statements followed by branches dependent on the truth value of the
conditional statement. System variables must also be included in the system to
keep track of system status, or else the robot polls the sensors, and so on, of the
system each time a status check is needed.
In developing an algorithm for a cell controller to make these decisions, the
analyst must rst decide if the control logic is going to control the robot, the part,
or the workstation. In a part-oriented system, the events associated with the part
determine when decisions are made. When a part nishes an operation, a routing
selection is made and then the robot is requested. In a robot-oriented cell, the
robot drives the decisions and actions so that when a part completes an operation,
it merely sends a signal or sets a status indicator showing that it is nished. Then
when the robot becomes available, it sees that the part is waiting and, at that moment, the routing decision for the part is made.

13.10.2 Modeling Robots

In modeling robots, it is sometimes presumed that the kinematics of the robot need
to be simulated. Kinematic simulation is a special type of robot simulation used
for cycle time analysis and ofine programming. For discrete event simulation, it
is necessary to know only the move times from every pickup point to every deposit point, which usually arent very many. This makes modeling a robot no more
difcult than modeling a simple resource. The advantage to having a specic
robot construct in a simulation product is primarily for providing the graphic animation of the robot. ProModel doesnt have a built-in construct specically for robots, although submodels have been dened that can be used in other models.
Common performance measures when modeling robots include
Robot utilization.
Response time.
Throughput.
Decision variables that come into play when simulating robots include
Pickup sequence.
Task prioritization.
Idle robot positioning.
Typical questions that simulation can help answer are
What priority of tasks results in the highest productivity?
Where is the best position for the robot after completing each particular
drop-off?

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13.11 Summary
Material handling systems can be one of the most difcult elements to model
using simulation simply because of the sheer complexity. At the same time, the
material handling system is often the critical element in the smooth operation of a
manufacturing or warehousing system. The material handling system should be
designed rst using estimates of resource requirements and operating parameters
(speed, move capacity, and so forth). Simulation can then help verify design decisions and ne-tune the design.
In modeling material handling systems, it is advisable to simplify wherever
possible so models dont become too complex. A major challenge in modeling
conveyor systems comes when multiple merging and branching occur. A challenging issue in modeling discrete part movement devices, such as AGVs, is how
to manage their deployment in order to get maximum utilization and meet production goals.

13.12 Review Questions

1. What impact can the material handling system have on the performance
of a manufacturing system?
2. What is the essential difference between a conveyor and other transport
devices from a modeling standpoint?
3. In material handling simulation, should we be interested in modeling
individual parts or unit loads? Explain.
4. How is the capacity of a conveyor determined?
5. What is the difference between an accumulation and a nonaccumulation
conveyor?
6. What is the difference between xed spacing and random spacing on a
conveyor?
7. Under what conditions could you model an accumulation conveyor as a
simple queue or buffer?
8. What are typical conveyor design decisions that simulation can help make?
9. What are typical simulation objectives when modeling an AS/RS?
10. When modeling an AS/RS, is there a benet in modeling the actual
storage positions? Explain.
11. Conceptually, how would you model the movement of a carousel?
12. Draw a logic diagram of what happens from the time an AGV deposits
a load to the time it retrieves another load.
13. When modeling a robot in system simulation, is it necessary to model
the actual kinematics of the robot? Explain.
14. What are the unique characteristics of a bridge crane from a modeling
perspective?

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References
Apple, J. M. Plant Layout and Material Handling. 3rd ed. N.Y.: Ronald Press, 1977.
Askin, Ronald G., and C. R. Standridge. Modeling and Analysis of Manufacturing Systems.
New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1993.
Automatic Monorail Systems. Material Handling Engineering, May 1988, p. 95.
Bozer, Y. A., and J. A. White. Travel-Time Models for Automated Storage/Retrieval
Systems. IIE Transactions 16, no. 4 (1984), pp. 32938.
Fitzgerald, K. R. How to Estimate the Number of AGVs You Need. Modern Materials
Handling, October 1985, p. 79.
Henriksen, J., and T. Schriber. Simplied Approaches to Modeling Accumulation and
Non-Accumulating Conveyor Systems. In Proceedings of the 1986 Winter Simulation Conference, ed. J. Wilson, J. Henricksen, and S. Roberts. Piscataway, NJ: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 1986.
Meyers, Fred E. Plant Layout and Material Handling. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Regents/
Prentice Hall, 1993.
Pritsker, A. A. B. Introduction to Simulation and Slam II. West Lafayette, IN: Systems
Publishing Corporation, 1986, p. 600.
Tompkins, J. A.; J. A. White; Y. A. Bozer; E. H. Frazelle; J. M. A. Tanchoco; and
J. Trevino. Facilities Planning. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1996.
Zisk, B. Flexibility Is Key to Automated Material Transport System for Manufacturing
Cells. Industrial Engineering, November 1983, p. 60.

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14. Modeling Service

Systems

14 MODELING SERVICE
SYSTEMS

No matter which line you move to, the other line always moves faster.
Unknown

14.1 Introduction
A service system is a processing system in which one or more services are provided to customers. Entities (customers, patients, paperwork) are routed through
a series of processing areas (check-in, order, service, payment) where resources
(service agents, doctors, cashiers) provide some service. Service systems exhibit
unique characteristics that are not found in manufacturing systems. Sasser, Olsen,
and Wyckoff (1978) identify four distinct characteristics of services that distinguish them from products that are manufactured:
1.
2.
3.
4.

Services are intangible; they are not things.

Services are perishable; they cannot be inventoried.
Services provide heterogeneous output; output is varied.
Services involve simultaneous production and consumption; the service
is produced and used at the same time.

These characteristics pose great challenges for service system design and management, particularly in the areas of process design and stafng. Having discussed general modeling procedures common to both manufacturing and service
system simulation in Chapter 7, and specic modeling procedures unique to
manufacturing systems in Chapter 12, in this chapter we discuss design and
operating considerations that are more specic to service systems. A description
is given of major classes of service systems. To provide an idea of how simulation might be performed in a service industry, a call center simulation example is
presented.
357

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14.2 Characteristics of Service Systems

Service systems represent a class of processing systems where entities (customers, orders, work, and so forth) are routed through a series of service stations
and waiting areas. Although certain characteristics of service systems are similar
to manufacturing systems, service systems have some unique characteristics. The
aspects of service systems that involve work-ow processing (orders, paperwork,
records, and the like) and product delivery are nearly identical to manufacturing
and will not be repeated here. Those aspects of service systems that are most
different from manufacturing systems are those involving customer processing.
Many of the differences stem from the fact that in service systems, often both
the entity being served and the resource performing the service are human.
Humans have much more complex and unpredictable behavior than parts and
machines. These special characteristics and their implications for modeling are
described here:
Entities are capricious. System conditions cause humans to change their
minds about a particular decision once it has been made. Customer
reactions to dissatisfactory circumstances include balking, jockeying, and
reneging. Balking occurs when a customer attempts to enter a queue, sees
that it is full, and leaves. Jockeying is where a customer moves to another
queue that is shorter in hopes of being served sooner. Reneging, also
called abandonment, is where a customer enters a waiting line or area,
gets tired of waiting, and leaves. Modeling these types of situations can
become complex and requires special modeling constructs or the use of
programming logic to describe the behavior.
Entity arrivals are random and uctuate over time. Rather than
scheduling arrivals as in production, customers enter most service systems
randomly according to a Poisson process (interarrival times are
exponentially distributed). Additionally, the rate of arrivals often changes
depending on the time of day or the day of the week. The uctuating
pattern of arrivals usually repeats itself daily, weekly, or sometimes
monthly. Accurate modeling of these arrival patterns and cycles is
essential to accurate analysis. Having a uctuating arrival rate makes most
service simulations terminating simulations with focus on peak activities
and other changes of interest as opposed to steady-state behavior.
Resource decisions are complex. Typically resource allocation and task
selection decisions are made according to some general rule (like rstcome, rst-served). In service systems, however, resources are intelligent
and often make decisions based on more state-related criteria. An increase
in the size of a waiting line at a cashier, for example, may prompt a new
checkout lane to open. A change in the state of an entity (a patient in
recovery requiring immediate assistance) may cause a resource (a nurse or
doctor) to interrupt its current task to service the entity. The exibility to
respond to state changes is made possible because the resources are

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humans and therefore capable of making more complex decisions than

machines. Because service personnel are often cross-trained and activity
boundaries are exible, resources can ll in for each other when needed.
Modeling the complex behavior of human resources often requires the use
of ifthen logic to dene decision rules.
Resource work pace uctuates. Another characteristic of human resources
is that work pace tends to vary with time of day or work conditions.
A change in the state of a queue (like the number of customers in line)
may cause a resource (a cashier) to work faster, thereby reducing
processing time. A change in the state of the entity (such as the length of
waiting time) may cause a resource to work faster to complete the
professional service. A change in the state of the resource (like fatigue
or learning curve) may change the service time (slower in the case
of fatigue, faster in the case of a learning curve). To model this variable
behavior, tests must be continually made on state variables in the system
so that resource behavior can be linked to the system state.
Processing times are highly variable. Service processes vary considerably
due to the nature of the process as well as the fact that the entity and the
server are both human. Consequently, processing times tend to be highly
variable. From a modeling standpoint, processing times usually need to
be expressed using some probability distribution such as a normal or beta
distribution.
Services have both front-room and back-room activities. In front-room
activities, customer service representatives meet with customers to take
orders for a good or service. In the back room, the activities are carried out
for producing the service or good. Once the service or good is produced, it
is either brought to the customer who is waiting in the front room or, if the
customer has gone, it is delivered to a remote site.

14.3 Performance Measures

The ultimate objectives of a service organization might include maximizing profits or maximizing customer satisfaction. However, these measures for success are
considered external performance criteria because they are not completely determined by any single activity. Simulation modeling and analysis help evaluate
those measures referred to as internal performance criteriameasures tied to a
specic activity. Simulation performance measures are both quantitative and
time-based and measure the efciency and the effectiveness of a system conguration and operating logic. Examples of internal performance measures are waiting times, hours to process an application, cost per transaction, and percentage of
time spent correcting transaction errors. Collier (1994) uses the term interlinking
to dene the process of establishing quantitative, causal relationships such as
these to external performance measures. He argues that interlinking can be a

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powerful strategic and competitive weapon. Here are some typical internal performance measures that can be evaluated using simulation:

Service time.
Waiting time.
Queue lengths.
Resource utilization.
Service level (the percentage of customers who can be promptly serviced,
without any waiting).
Abandonment rate (the percentage of impatient customers who leave the
system).

14.4 Use of Simulation in Service Systems

The use of simulation in service industries has been relatively limited in the past,
despite the many areas of application where simulation has proven benecial:
health care services (hospitals, clinics), food services (restaurants, cafeterias), and
nancial services (banks, credit unions) to name a few. In health care services,
Zilm et al. (1983) studied the impact of stafng on utilization and cost; and
Hancock et al. (1978) employed simulation to determine the optimal number of
beds a facility would need to meet patient demand. In food services, Aran and
Kang (1987) designed a model to determine the optimal seating conguration for
a fast-food restaurant, and Kharwat (1991) used simulation to examine restaurant
and delivery operations relative to stafng levels, equipment layout, work ow,
customer service, and capacity. The use of simulation in the service sector continues to expand.
Even within manufacturing industries there are business or support activities
similar to those found in traditional service industries. Edward J. Kane of IBM
observed (Harrington 1991),
Just taking a customer order, moving it through the plant, distributing these requirements out to the manufacturing oorthat activity alone has thirty sub-process steps
to it. Accounts receivable has over twenty process steps. Information processing is a
whole discipline in itself, with many challenging processes integrated into a single
total activity. Obviously, we do manage some very complex processes separate from
the manufacturing oor itself.

This entire realm of support processes presents a major area of potential application for simulation. Similar to the problem of dealing with excess inventory in
manufacturing systems, customers, paperwork, and information often sit idle in
service systems while waiting to be processed. In fact, the total waiting time for
entities in service processes often exceeds 90 percent of the total ow time.
The types of questions that simulation helps answer in service systems can be
categorized as being either design related or management related. Here are some

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typical design and management decisions that can be addressed by simulation:

Design Decisions

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

How much capacity should be provided in service and waiting areas?

What is the maximum throughput capability of the service system?
What are the equipment requirements to meet service demand?
How long does it take to service a customer?
How long do customers have to wait before being serviced?
Where should the service and waiting areas be located?
How can work ow and customer ow be streamlined?
What effect would information technology have on reducing nonvalue-added time?

Management Decisions

1. What is the best way to schedule personnel?

2. What is the best way to schedule appointments for customers?
3. What is the best way to schedule carriers or vehicles in transportation
systems?
4. How should specic jobs be prioritized?
5. What is the best way to deal with emergency situations when a needed
resource is unavailable?
Because service systems are nearly always in a state of transition, going from
one activity level to another during different periods of the day or week, they rarely
reach a steady state. Consequently, we are frequently interested in analyzing the
transient behavior of service systems. Questions such as How long is the transient
cycle? or How many replications should be run? become very important. Overall performance measures may not be as useful as the performance for each particular period of the transient cycle. An example where this is true is in the analysis of
resource utilization statistics. In the types of service systems where arrival patterns
and staff schedules uctuate over the activity cycle (such as by day or week), the average utilization for the entire cycle is almost meaningless. It is much more informative to look at the resource utilization for each period of the activity cycle.
Most design and management decisions in service systems involve answering
questions based on transient system conditions, so it is important that the results
of the simulation measure transient behavior. Multiple replications should be run,
with statistics gathered and analyzed for different periods of the transient cycle. In
an attempt to simplify a simulation model, sometimes there is a temptation to
model only the peak period, which is often the period of greatest interest. What is
overlooked is the fact that the state of the system prior to each period and the
length of each period signicantly impact the performance measures for any
particular period, including the peak period.
ProModel provides a periodic reporting option that allows statistics to be
gathered by periods. This provides a more complete picture of system activity
over the entire simulation.

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14.5 Applications of Simulation in Service Industries

Some of the primary applications of simulation in service industries are process
design, method selection, system layout, staff planning, and ow control.

14.5.1 Process Design

Because of the number of options in customer or paper processing as well as the
exibility of largely human resources, service systems can be quite uid, allowing them to be quickly and easily recongured. Simulation helps identify congurations that are more efcient. Consider a process as simple as a car wash service
that provides the following activities:

Payment.
Wash.
Rinse.
Dry.
Vacuum.
Interior cleaning.

How many ways can cars be processed through the car wash? Each activity could
be done at separate places, or any and even all of them could be combined at a station. This is because of the exibility of the resources that perform each operation
and the imparticularity of the space requirements for most of the activities. Many
of the activities could also be performed in any sequence. Payment, vacuuming,
and interior cleaning could be done in almost any order. The only order that
possibly could not change easily is washing, rinsing, and drying. The other consideration with many service processes is that not all entities receive the same
services. A car wash customer, for example, may forgo getting vacuum service or
interior cleaning. Thus it is apparent that the mix of activities in service processes
can vary greatly.
Simulation helps in process design by allowing different processing sequences
and combinations to be tried to nd the best process ow. Modeling process ow is
relatively simple in most service industries. It is only when shifts, resource pools,
and preemptive tasks get involved that it starts to become more challenging.

14.5.2 Method Selection

Method selection usually accompanies process design. When determining what
activities will be performed and how the process should be broken up, alternative
methods for performing the activities are usually taken into consideration. Some
of the greatest changes in the methods used in service industries have come about
as a result of advances in information technology. Routine banking is being
replaced by automated teller machines (ATMs). Shopping is being conducted
over the Internet. Electronic document management systems are replacing paper

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document processing. Processing of orders and other documents that previously

took weeks now takes only days or hours.
Automation of service processes presents challenges similar to the automation
of manufacturing processes. If automating a service process speeds up a particular
activity but does not minimize the overall processing time, it is not effective and
may even be creating waste (such as large pools of waiting entities).

14.5.3 System Layout

An important consideration in designing a service system is the layout of the facility, especially if the building construction is going to be based on the system
layout. For many service operations, however, the layout is easily changed as it
may involve only rearranging desks and changing ofces. Human resources and
desktop computers are much easier to move around than an anchored 200-ton
press used in sheet-metal processing. Still, a good layout can help provide a more
streamlined ow and minimize the amount of movement for both customers and
personnel.
The way in which work areas are laid out can have a signicant impact on
customer satisfaction and processing efciency. In some systems, for example,
multiple servers have individual queues for customers to wait before being
served. This can cause customers to be served out of order of arrival and result in
jockeying and customer discontent. Other systems provide a single input queue
that feeds multiple servers (queuing for a bank teller is usually designed this way).
This ensures customers will be serviced in the order of arrival. It may cause some
reneging, however, if grouping all customers in a single queue creates the perception to an incoming customer that the waiting time is long.

14.5.4 Staff Planning

A major decision in nearly every service operation pertains to the level and type
of stafng to meet customer demand. Understafng can lead to excessive waiting
times and lost or dissatised customers. Overstafng can result in needless costs
for resources that are inadequately utilized.
Related to stafng levels is the staff type. In service operations, personnel are
frequently cross-trained so that alternative resources may perform any given task.
One objective in this regard is to make the best use of resources by allowing
higher-skilled resources to ll in occasionally when lower-skilled workers are
unavailable.
Modeling stafng requirements is done by dening the pattern of incoming
customers, specifying the servicing policies and procedures, and setting a trial
stafng level. If more than one skill level is capable of performing a task, the list
and priority for using these alternative resources need to be specied.
After running the simulation, waiting times, abandonment counts, and resource utilization rates can be evaluated to determine if the optimum conditions
have been achieved. If results are unacceptable, either the incoming pattern, the

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service force, or the servicing policies and procedures can be modied to run
additional experiments.

14.5.5 Flow Control

Flow control is to service systems what production control is to manufacturing
systems. Service system operations planners must decide how to allow customers,
documents, and so on to ow through the system. As in manufacturing systems,
customers and information may be pushed or pulled through the system. By limiting queue capacities, a pull system can reduce the total number of customers or
items waiting in the system. It also reduces the average waiting time of customers
or items and results in greater overall efciency.
Fast-food restaurants practice pull methods when they keep two or three food
items (like burgers and fries) queued in anticipation of upcoming orders. When
the queue limit is reached, further replenishment of that item is suspended. When
a server withdraws an item, that is the pull signal to the cook to replenish it with
another one. The lower the inventory of prepared food items, the more tightly
linked the pull system is to customer demand. Excessive inventory results in deteriorating quality (cold food) and waste at the end of the day.

14.6 Types of Service Systems

Service systems cover a much broader range than manufacturing systems. They
range from a pure service system to almost a pure production system. Customers
may be directly involved in the service process or they may not be involved at all.
The classication of service systems presented here is based on operational characteristics and is adapted, in part, from the classication given by Schmenner
(1994):

Service factory.
Pure service shop.
Retail service store.
Professional service.
Telephonic service.
Delivery service.
Transportation service.

A description of each in terms of its operating characteristics is given next.

14.6.1 Service Factory

Service factories are systems in which customers are provided services using
equipment and facilities requiring low labor involvement. Consequently, labor
costs are low while equipment and facility costs are high. Service factories

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usually have both front-room and back-room activities with total service being
provided in a matter of minutes. Customization is done by selecting from a menu
of options previously dened by the provider. Waiting time and service time are
two primary factors in selecting the provider. Convenience of location is another
important consideration. Customer commitment to the provider is low because
there are usually alternative providers just as conveniently located.
Examples include banks (branch operations), restaurants, copy centers, barbers, check-in counters of airlines, hotels, and car rental agencies.

14.6.2 Pure Service Shop

In a pure service shop, service times are longer than for a service factory. Service
customization is also greater. Customer needs must be identied before service can
be provided. Customers may leave the location and return later for pickup, checking on an order, payment, or additional service. Price is often determined after the
service is provided. Although front-room activity times may be short, back-room
activity times may be long, typically measured in hours or days. The primary consideration is quality of service. Delivery time and price are of secondary importance. The customers ability to describe the symptoms and possible service
requirements are helpful in minimizing service and waiting times.
When customers arrive, they usually all go through some type of check-in
activity. At this time, a record (paperwork or computer le) is generated for the
customer and a sequence of service or care is prescribed. The duration of the service or the type of resources required may change during the process of providing
service because of a change in the status of the entity. After the service is provided, tests may be performed to make sure that the service is acceptable before
releasing the entity from the facility. If the results are acceptable, the customer
and the record are matched and the customer leaves the system.
Examples include hospitals, repair shops (automobiles), equipment rental
shops, banking (loan processing), Department of Motor Vehicles, Social Security
ofces, courtrooms, and prisons.

14.6.3 Retail Service Store

In retail services, the size of the facility is large in order to accommodate many
customers at the same time. Customers have many product options from which
to choose. Retail services require a high degree of labor intensity but a low degree
of customization or interaction with the customer. Customers are inuenced
by price more than service quality or delivery time. Customers are interested in
convenient location, assistance with nding the products in the store, and quick
checkout. Total service time is usually measured in minutes.
When customers arrive in a retail shop, they often get a cart and use that cart
as a carrier throughout the purchasing process. Customers may need assistance
from customer service representatives during the shopping process. Once the customer has obtained the merchandise, he or she must get in line for the checkout

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process. For large items such as furniture or appliances, the customer may have to
order and pay for the merchandise rst. The delivery of the product may take
place later.
Examples include department stores, grocery stores, hardware stores, and
convenience stores.

14.6.4 Professional Service

Professional services are usually provided by a single person or a small group
of experts in a particular eld. The service is highly customized and provided by
expensive resources. Duration of the service is long, extremely variable, and
difcult to predict because customer involvement during the process is highly
variable.
Processing may be performed by a single resource or multiple resources.
When the customer arrives, the rst process is diagnostic. Usually an expert resource evaluates the service needed by the customer and determines the type of
service, the estimated service time, and the cost. This diagnosis then dictates what
resources are used to process the order. The duration of the service or the type of
resources required may change during the process of providing service. This is
usually a result of the customers review of the work. After the service is provided,
a nal review with the customer may be done to make sure that the service is acceptable. If the results are acceptable, the customer and the record are matched
and the customer leaves the system.
Examples include auditing services, tax preparation, legal services, architectural services, construction services, and tailor services.

14.6.5 Telephonic Service

Telephonic services or teleservicing are services provided over the telephone. They
are unique in that the service is provided without face-to-face contact with the
customer. The service may be making reservations, ordering from a catalog, or providing customer support. In a telephonic service system, there are a number of
issues to address, including
Overow callsthe caller receives a busy signal.
Renegesthe customer gets in but hangs up after a certain amount of
time if no assistance is received.
Redialsa customer who hangs up or fails to get through calls again.
The most important criterion for measuring effectiveness is delivery time. The customer is interested in getting the service or ordering the product as quickly as possible. The customers ability to communicate the need is critical to the service time.
Calls usually arrive in the incoming call queue and are serviced based on the
FIFO rule. Some advanced telephone systems allow routing of calls into multiple
queues for quicker service. Processing of a call is done by a single resource.
Service duration depends on the nature of the service. If the service is an ordering

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process, then the service time is short. If the service is a technical support process,
then the service time may be long or the call may require a callback after some
research.
Examples include technical support services (hotlines) for software or hardware, mail-order services, and airline and hotel reservations.

14.6.6 Delivery Service

Delivery services involve the ordering, shipping, and delivery of goods, raw
materials, or nished products to points of use or sale. Customers may accept
deliveries only within certain time schedules. In practice, there are often other
constraints besides time windows. Certain sequences in deliveries may be inexible. Customers are interested in convenient, fast delivery. If the products that are
delivered are perishable or fragile goods, the quality of the products delivered is
also important to the customer.
Deliveries begin with the preparation of the product and loading of the product
on the delivery resources. Determination of the best routing decisions for drivers
may depend on the number or proximity of customers waiting for the product.

14.6.7 Transportation Service

Transportation services involve the movement of people from one place to another. A fundamental difference between transportation and delivery systems is
that people are being transported rather than goods. Another important difference
is that the routes in transportation services tend to be xed, whereas the routes in
delivery services are somewhat exible. Customers are interested in convenient,
fast transportation. Cost of transportation plays a signicant role in the selection
of the service. Because set schedules and routes are used in transportation, customers expect reliable service.
Two types of systems are used in transportation: (1) multiple pickup and
drop-off points and (2) single pickup and drop-off points. In multiple pickup and
drop-off point systems, customers enter and leave the transportation vehicle independently. In single pickup and drop-off transportation, customers all enter at one
place and are dropped off at the same destination.
Examples include airlines, railroads, cruise lines, mass transit systems, and
limousine services.

14.7 Simulation Example: A Help Desk Operation

This section, based on an article by Singer and Gasparatos (1994), presents an example of a simulation project performed to improve a help desk operation. This
project illustrates the exibility of processing and how variable some of the data
can be. Even for existing service systems, radical changes can be made with little
disruption that can dramatically improve performance.

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14.7.1 Background
Society Banks Information Technology and Operations (ITO) group offers a help
desk service to customers of the ITO function. This service is offered to both internal and external customers, handling over 12,000 calls per month. The client
services help desk provides technical support and information on a variety of technical topics including resetting passwords, ordering PC equipment, requesting
phone installation, ordering extra copies of internal reports, and reporting mainframe and network problems. The help desk acts as the primary source of communication between ITO and its customers. It interacts with authority groups within
ITO by providing work and support when requested by a customer.
The old client services help desk process consisted of (1) a mainframe help
desk, (2) a phone/local area network help desk, and (3) a PC help desk. Each of
the three operated separately with separate phone numbers, operators, and facilities. All calls were received by their respective help desk operators, who manually
logged all information about the problem and the customer, and then proceeded to
pass the problem on to an authority group or expert for resolution.
Because of acquisitions, the increased use of information technologies, and the
passing of time, Societys help desk process had become fragmented and layered
with bureaucracy. This made the help desk a good candidate for a process redesign.
It was determined that the current operation did not have a set of clearly dened
goals, other than to provide a help desk service. The organizational boundaries of the
current process were often obscured by the fact that much of the different help desks
work overlapped and was consistently being handed off. There were no process performance measures in the old process, only measures of call volume. A proposal was
made to consolidate the help desk functions. The proposal also called for the introduction of automation to enhance the speed and accuracy of the services.

14.7.2 Model Description

The situation suggested a process redesign to be supported by simulation of the
business processes to select and validate different operational alternatives.
Detailed historical information was gathered on call frequencies, call arrival
patterns, and length of calls to the help desk. This information was obtained from
the help desks database, ASIM. Table 14.1 summarizes the call breakdown by

TABLE 14.1 Types of Calls for Help Desk

Time Period
7 A.M.11 A.M.
11 A.M.2 P.M.
2 P.M.5 P.M.
5 P.M.8 P.M.
Average

Password Reset

Device Reset

Inquiries

Percent
Level 1

Percent
Level 1A

Percent
Level 2

11.7%
8.8
7.7
8.6

25.7%
29.0
27.8
36.5

8.2%
10.9
11.1
17.8

45.6%
48.7
46.6
62.9

4.6%
3.6
4.4
3.7

47.3%
44.3
45.8
32.2

9.9%

27.5%

9.9%

47.3%

4.3%

48.4%

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Modeling Service Systems

call level. Level 1 calls are resolved immediately by the help desk, Level 1A calls
are resolved later by the help desk, and Level 2 calls are handed off to an authority group for resolution.
Historically, calls averaged 2.5 minutes, lasting anywhere from 30 seconds
to 25 minutes. Periodically, follow-up work is required after calls that ranges from
1 to 10 minutes. Overall, the help desk service abandonment rate was 4 to 12 percent (as measured by the percentage of calls abandoned), depending on stafng
levels.
The help desk process was broken down into its individual work steps and
owners of each work step were identied. Then a owchart that described the
process was developed (Figure 14.1). From the owchart, a computer simulation
model was developed of the old operation, which was validated by comparing
actual performance of the help desk with that of the simulations output. During
the 10-day test period, the simulation model produced results consistent with
those of the actual performance. The user of the model was able to dene such
model parameters as daily call volume and stafng levels through the use of the
models Interact Box, which provided sensitivity analysis.
Joint requirements planning (JRP) sessions allowed the project team to collect information about likes, dislikes, needs, and improvement suggestions from
users, customers, and executives. This information claried the target goals of the
process along with its operational scope. Suggestions were collected and prioritized from the JRP sessions for improving the help desk process. Internal benchmarking was also performed using Societys customer service help desk as a reference for performance and operational ideas.

FIGURE 14.1
Customer problem,
query, or change

Flow diagram of
client services.
Automated problem
recognition

Help desk

Client notification
and escalation

Automated warning
recognition

Customer self-service

Automated resolution

Qualified support assistance

Expert support assistance

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A target process was dened as providing a single-source help desk (onestop shopping approach) for ITO customers with performance targets of
90 percent of calls to be answered by ve rings.
Less than 2 percent abandonment rate.
Other goals of the target process were to enhance the users perception of the help
desk and to signicantly reduce the time required to resolve a customers request.
A combination of radical redesign ideas (reengineering) and incremental change
ideas (TQM) formed the nucleus of a target help desk process. The redesigned
process implemented the following changes:
Consolidate three help desks into one central help desk.
Create a consistent means of problem/request logging and resolution.
Introduce automation for receiving, queuing, and categorizing calls for
resetting terminals.
Capture information pertaining to the call once at the source, and, if the
call is handed off, have the information passed along also.
Use existing technologies to create a hierarchy of problem resolution
where approximately 60 percent of problems can be resolved immediately
without using the operators and approximately 15 percent of the calls can
be resolved immediately by the operators.
Create an automated warning and problem recognition system that detects
and corrects mainframe problems before they occur.
The original simulation model was revisited to better understand the current
customer service level and what potential impact software changes, automation,
and consolidation would have on the stafng and equipment needs and operational capacity. Simulation results could also be used to manage the expectations
for potential outcomes of the target process implementation.
Immediate benet was gained from the use of this application of simulation to
better understand the old operational interrelationships between stafng, call volume, and customer service. Figure 14.2 shows how much the abandonment rate

Abandonment rates for

alternative stafng
levels.

Calls abandoned

FIGURE 14.2

0.20
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0

700 calls per day

650 calls per day
600 calls per day
550 calls per day
500 calls per day
450 calls per day
400 calls per day

7
8
Operators staffed

10

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will change when the average daily call volume or the number of operators varies.
The importance of this graph is realized when one notices that it becomes increasingly harder to lower the abandonment rate once the number of operators increases
above seven. Above this point, the help desk can easily handle substantial
increases in average daily call volume while maintaining approximately the same
abandonment rate.
After modeling and analyzing the current process, the project team evaluated
the following operational alternatives using the simulation model:
The option to select from a number of different shift schedules so that
stafng can easily be varied from current levels.
The introduction of the automated voice response unit and its ability to
both receive and place calls automatically.
The ability of the automated voice response unit to handle device resets,
password resets, and system inquiries.
The incorporation of the PC and LAN help desks so that clients with
PC-related problems can have their calls routed directly to an available
expert via the automated voice response unit.
The ability to change the response time of the ASIM problem-logging
system.
Additionally, two alternative stafng schedules were proposed. The alternative schedules attempt to better match the time at which operators are available for
answering calls to the time the calls are arriving. The two alternative schedules
reduce effort hours by up to 8 percent while maintaining current service levels.
Additional results related to the Alternative Operations simulation model were
The automated voice response unit will permit approximately 75 percent
of PC-related calls to be answered immediately by a PC expert directly.
Using Figure 14.2, the automated voice response units ability to aid in
reducing the abandonment rate can be ascertained simply by estimating
the reduction in the number of calls routed to help desk operators and
nding the appropriate point on the chart for a given number of operators.
Improving the response time of ASIM will noticeably affect the operation
when stafng levels are low and call volumes are high. For example, with
ve operators on staff and average call volume of 650 calls per day, a
25 percent improvement in the response time of ASIM resulted in a
reduction in the abandonment rate of approximately 2 percent.

14.7.3 Results
The nonlinear relationship between the abandonment rate and the number of operators on duty (see Figure 14.2) indicates the difculty in greatly improving performance once the abandonment rate drops below 5 percent. Results generated
from the validated simulation model compare the impact of the proposed stafng
changes with that of the current stafng levels. In addition, the analysis of the

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effect of the automated voice response unit can be predicted before implementation so that the best alternative can be identied.
The introduction of simulation to help desk operations has shown that it can
be a powerful and effective management tool that should be utilized to better
achieve operational goals and to understand the impact of changes. As the automation project continues to be implemented, the simulation model can greatly
aid management and the project team members by allowing them to intelligently
predict how each new phase will affect the help desk.

14.8 Summary
Service systems provide a unique challenge in simulation modeling, largely due
to the human element involved. Service systems have a high human content in the
process. The customer is often involved in the process and, in many cases, is the
actual entity being processed. In this chapter we discussed the aspects that should
be considered when modeling service systems and suggested ways in which
different situations might be modeled. We also discussed the different types of
service systems and addressed the modeling issues associated with each. The example case study showed how uid service systems can be.

14.9 Review Questions

1. What characteristics of service systems make them different from
manufacturing systems?
2. What internal performance measures are linked to customer satisfaction?
3. Why are service systems more recongurable than manufacturing
systems?
4. Identify a service system where the customer is not part of the process.
5. What is abandonment or reneging in simulation terminology?
6. Explain how simulation was used to create the abandonment rate chart
shown in Figure 14.2.
7. What are three questions that simulation might help answer in designing
bus routes for a city bus line?
8. Is a transportation system entity-driven or resource-driven? Explain.
9. Describe conceptually how you would model jockeying in a simulation
model.

References
Aran, M. M., and K. Kang. Design of a Fast Food Restaurant Simulation Model. Simulation. Norcross, GA: Industrial Engineering and Management Press, 1987.
Collier, D. A. The Service/Quality Solution. Milwaukee: ASQC Quality Press, 1994.

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Hancock, W.; D. C. Magerlein; R. H. Stores; and J. B. Martin. Parameters Affecting

Hospital Occupancy and Implications for Facility Sizing. Health Services Research
13, 1978: pp. 27689.
Harrington, J. H. Business Process Improvement: The Breakthrough Strategy for Total
Quality, Productivity, and Competitiveness. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991.
Harrington, J. H. Business Process Improvement. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1994.
Kharwat, A. K. Computer Simulation: An Important Tool in the Fast Food Industry.
Proceedings of the 1991 Winter Simulation Conference, eds. B. Nelson, W. D. Kelton,
and G. M. Clark. Piscataway, NJ: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers,
1991.
Sasser, W. E.; R. P. Olsen; and D. D. Wyckoff. Management of Service Operations. Boston:
Allyn & Bacon, 1978, pp. 821.
Schmenner, Roger W. Plant and Service Tours in Operations Management. 4th ed. New
York: MacMillan, 1994.
Singer, R., and A. Gasparatos. Help Desks Hear Voice. Software Magazine, February
1994, pp. 2426.
Zilm, F., and R. Hollis. An Application of Simulation Modeling to Surgical Intensive Care
Bed Needs Analysis. Hospital and Health Services Administration, Sept/Oct. 1983,
pp. 82101.

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INTRODUCTION TO
PROMODEL 6.0

Imagination is the beginning of creation. You imagine what you desire, you will
what you imagine and at last you create what you will.
George Bernard Shaw

ProModel (Production Modeler) by PROMODEL Corporation is a simulation tool

for modeling various manufacturing and service systems. Manufacturing systems
such as job shops, conveyors, transfer lines, mass production, assembly lines, exible manufacturing systems, cranes, just-in-time systems, kanban systems, and so
forth can be modeled by ProModel. Service systems such as hospitals, call centers,
warehouse operations, transportation systems, grocery/department stores, information systems, customer service management, supply chains, logistic systems, and
other business processes also can be modeled efciently and quickly with ProModel.
ProModel is a powerful tool in the hands of engineers and managers to test
various alternative designs, ideas, and process maps before actual implementation. Improvements in existing systems or the design of new systems can be modeled and tested before committing any money, time, or other resources. Various
operating strategies and control alternatives can be compared and analyzed. Typically, most people use simulation tools to accurately predict and improve system
performance by modeling the actual location (such as a plant oor, a bank lobby,
or an emergency room) or an abstract process. Through testing various what-if
scenarios, one can determine the best (optimum) way to conduct operations.
ProModel concentrates on resource utilization, production capacity, productivity, inventory levels, bottlenecks, throughput times, and other performance
measures.
ProModel is a discrete event simulator and is intended to model discrete systems. Also, it is designed to model systems where events happen at denite points
in time. The time resolution is controllable and ranges from 0.01 hours to 0.00001
seconds.
377

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Labs

ProModel uses a graphical user interface (GUI). It is a true Windows (XP,

Me, 2000, 98, 95, or NT) based simulation tool and utilizes all the Windows features such as a standard user interface, multitasking, built-in printer drivers, and
point and click operation. ProModel has an online help system and a trainer.
Background graphics in .BMP, .PCX, .WMF, and .GIF formats can be imported into ProModel. Input data from spreadsheets can be seamlessly read into
ProModel for quick and easy updates. Also, multiple-scenario analysis is possible
using various input data les with the same model. Other model data may be read
from or written to general text les.

L1.1 ProModel 6.0 Opening Screen

ProModel can be installed in one of the following ways:
a.
b.
c.
d.

Runtime/evaluation package.
Standard package.
Student package.
Network package.

FIGURE L1.1
ProModel opening screen (student package).

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ProModels opening screen (student package) is shown in Figure L1.1. There are
six items (buttons) in the opening menu:
1. Open a model: Allows models created earlier to be opened.
2. Install model package: Copies to the specied destination directory all of
the les contained in a model package le.
3. Run demo model: Allows one of several example models packed with
the software to be run.
4. www.promodel.com: Allows the user to connect to the PROMODEL
Corporation home page on the World Wide Web.
5. SimRunner: This new addition to the ProModel product line evaluates
your existing simulation models and performs tests to nd better ways
to achieve desired results. A design of experiment methodology is used
in SimRunner. For a detailed description of SimRunner, please refer to
Lab 11.
6. Stat::Fit: This module allows continuous and/or discrete distributions to
be tted to a set of input data automatically. For a detailed discussion on
the modeling of input data distribution, please refer to Lab 6.

L1.2 Simulation in Decision Making

ProModel is an excellent decision support tool and is used to help plan and
make improvements in many areas of manufacturing and service industries.
Click on Run demo model from the shortcut panel and select any model that
looks interesting to run. You can also use the main menu to select File Open
and then choose a model from the Demos subdirectory. To run a model, select
Simulation Run. To stop a simulation prematurely, select Simulation End
Simulation.
Problem Statement
At a call center for California Cellular, customer service associates are employed
to respond to customer calls and complaints. On average, 10 customers call per
hour. The time between two calls is exponentially distributed with a mean of
six minutes. Responding to each call takes a time that varies from a low of 2 minutes to a high of 10 minutes, with a mean of 6 minutes. If the company had a
policy that
a. The average time to respond to a customer call should not be any more
than six minutes, how many customer service associates should be
employed by the company?
b. The maximum number of calls waiting should be no more than ve,
how many customer service associates should be employed by the
company?

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L1.2.1 Average Waiting Time

First we build a simulation model with one customer service associate answering
all customer calls (Figure L1.2). The average time a customer has to wait before
reaching the customer service associate is 18.92 minutes (Figure L1.3). This is a
much longer wait than the company policy of six minutes (average).
If we employ two customer service associates (Figure L1.4), we would like
to gure out what the average wait would be. The average wait drops down to
5.9 minutes (Figure L1.5), which is clearly a much more acceptable result. Hence
the decision recommended to management will be to hire two associates.
FIGURE L1.2
California Cellular with one customer service agent.

FIGURE L1.3
Customer waiting time statistics with one customer service agent.

FIGURE L1.4
California Cellular with two customer service agents.

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FIGURE L1.5
Customer waiting time statistics with two customer service agents.

FIGURE L1.6
Number of calls waiting with one customer service agent.

FIGURE L1.7
Number of calls waiting with two customer service agents.

L1.2.2 Maximum Queue Length

Now we want to evaluate the policy of no more than ve calls waiting for response at any time. First we look at the results (Figure L1.6) of having one customer service associate working at a time. The maximum number of customers
waiting for response is 18. This is clearly not an acceptable situation.
If we change the number of associates to two, the results obtained are given
in Figure L1.7. The maximum number of calls waiting is ve. This is acceptable
according to the company policy of no more than ve calls waiting. When we
graph the number of incoming calls waiting for the duration of the simulation run
of 500 hours (Figure L1.8), there were only three occasions of ve calls waiting.
Hence, we recommend to management to hire two associates.

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FIGURE L1.8
Graph of number of customers waiting versus simulation run time.

L1.3 Exercises
1. How do you open an existing simulation model?
2. What is SimRunner? How can you use it in your simulation analysis?
3. What does the Stat::Fit package do? Do you need it when building a
simulation model?
4. At the most, how many locations, entities, and types of resources can be
modeled using the student version of ProModel?
5. Open the Manufacturing Cost model from the Demos subdirectory and
run the model three different times to nd out whether one, two, or three
operators are optimal for minimizing the cost per part (the cost per part is
displayed on the scoreboard during the simulation). Selecting Model
Parameters, you can change the number of operators from the Simulation
menu by double-clicking on the rst parameter (number of operators)
and entering 1, 2, or 3. Then select Run from the Model Parameters
dialog. Each simulation will run for 15 hours.
6. Without knowing how the model was constructed, can you give a rational
explanation for the number of operators that resulted in the least cost?
7. Go to the ProModel website on the Internet (www.promodel.com). What
are some of the successful real-world applications of the ProModel
software? Is ProModel applied only to manufacturing problems?

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VIEW, MENU,
AND TUTORIAL

I only wish that ordinary people had an unlimited capacity for doing harm; then
they might have an unlimited power for doing good.
Socrates (469399 B.C.)

In this lab, Section L2.1 introduces you to various commands in the ProModel
menu. In Section L2.2 we discuss the basic modeling elements in a ProModel
model le. Section L2.3 discusses some of the innovative features of ProModel.
Section L2.4 refers to a short tutorial on ProModel in a PowerPoint presentation
format. Some of the material describing the use and features of ProModel
has been taken from the ProModel User Guide as well as ProModels online help
system.

L2.1 Introduction to the ProModel Menu

In this section we introduce you to the title bar and various actions and commands
in the ProModel menu bar. In subsequent chapters we will use many of these commands in various examples and you will have an opportunity to master them. We
encourage you to use the ProModels online help to learn more about all the menu
bar commands.

L2.1.1 The Title and the Menu Bars

The title bar at the top of the screen (Figure L2.1) holds the name of the model document currently being created. Until the document is given a name, the title bar
shows ProModel. Once the document is given a title (like Paulas Production
Shop) in the general information dialog box, the title bar shows ProModel
(Paulas Production Shop).
383

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FIGURE L2.1
The title and the menu
bars.

FIGURE L2.2
The File menu.

The menu bar, just below the title bar (Figure L2.1), is used to call up menus,
or lists of tasks. The menu bar of the ProModel screen displays the commands you
use to work with ProModel. Some of the items in the menu, like File, Edit, View,
Tools, Window, and Help, are common to most Windows applications. Others
such as Build, Simulation, and Output provide commands specic to programming in ProModel. In the following sections we describe all the menu commands
and the tasks within each menu.

L2.1.2 File Menu

The File menu (Figure L2.2) allows the user to open a new model, open an existing model, merge two or more submodels into one, save the current model, and
import models created in earlier versions of ProModel. It also allows you to view
a text version of the model and print either the model text le or the graphic layout
of the model. The printer setup can be modied from this menu. Model packages
can be created for distribution to others and can also be installed using this menu.
The last item on this menu allows the user to exit the ProModel environment and
go back to the Windows (XP, Me, 2000, 98, 95, or NT) environment.

L2.1.3 Edit Menu

The Edit menu (Figure L2.3) contains selections for editing the contents of edit
tables and logic windows. The selections available from this menu will change
according to the module from which the Edit menu is selected. The selections also

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FIGURE L2.3

FIGURE L2.4

The Edit menu.

The Build menu.

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vary according to the currently selected window. The Edit menu is active only
when a model le is open.

L2.1.4 Build Menu

The Build menu (Figure L2.4) consists of all of the modules for creating and editing a model, which include the following basic and optional modules:
Basic Modules
Locations
Entities

Processing
Arrivals

Optional Modules
Path Networks
Resources
Shifts
Cost
Attributes
Variables
Arrays Streams

Macros
Subroutines
Arrival Cycles
Table Functions
User Distributions
External Files

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FIGURE L2.5
General Information dialog box.

In addition, two more modules are available in the Build menu: General Information and Background Graphics.
General Information. This dialog box (Figure L2.5) allows the user to specify
the name of the model, the default time unit, the distance unit, and the graphic
library to be used. The models initialization and termination logic can also be
specied using this dialog box. A Notes window allows the user to save information such as the analysts name, the revision date, any assumptions made about the
model, and so forth. These notes can also be displayed at the beginning of a simulation run.
Background Graphics. The Background Graphics module (Figure L2.6) allows
the user to create a unique background for the model using the tools in the graphics editor. An existing background can also be imported from another application
such as AutoCAD.
Generally, most graphics objects are laid out in front of the grid. Large objects as well as imported backgrounds are placed behind the grid.

L2.1.5 Simulation Menu

The Simulation menu (Figure L2.7) controls the execution of a simulation and
contains options for running a model, dening model parameters, and dening
and running scenarios.
ProModel also has an add-on feature: SimRunner.

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FIGURE L2.6
Background Graphics dialog box.

FIGURE L2.7

FIGURE L2.8

FIGURE L2.9

The Simulation menu.

The Output menu.

The Tools menu.

L2.1.6 Output Menu

The Output menu (Figure L2.8) starts the ProModel Output Processor for viewing
model statistics. It also allows the user to view the trace, which was generated during simulation model runtime.

L2.1.7 Tools Menu

The Tools menu (Figure L2.9) contains various utilities as follows:
Graphics Editor: For creating, editing, and modifying graphic icons.
Stat::Fit: For tting empirical distributions to a set of user data.

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Expression Search: A search-and-replace feature for nding or replacing

expressions throughout a model.
Options: The paths for model les, the graphic library, output results, and
auto saves are specied in this dialog box. The time between auto saves is
also specied here.
Customize: With this utility one can add any tools (viz. Dashboard, MPA,
ProClare, Prosetter, ProStat, or Quick Bar), or any other Windows
executable les to the Tools Menu.
QuickBar: QuickBar is a versatile tool that can make your work in
ProModel much faster. It allows you to remove buttons, add custom
ProModel buttons, or add custom buttons launching other applications.

L2.1.8 View Menu

The View menu (Figure L2.10) contains selections for setting up the model viewing environment. These settings are used whenever ProModel is started.
The Zoom submenu (Figure L2.11) allows the model to be displayed from
25 percent magnication to 400 percent magnication or any other user-specied
custom magnication.
The Layout Settings submenu is shown in Figure L2.12. The grid settings
allow the properties of the grids to be changed. The background and routing path
colors can also be changed using this submenu. The various editing preferences
are shown in the Edit Tables submenu (Figure L2.13).
FIGURE L2.10

FIGURE L2.11

The View menu.

The Zoom menu.

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FIGURE L2.12

FIGURE L2.13

The Layout Settings submenu.

Editing preferences in ProModel.

FIGURE L2.14

FIGURE L2.15

The Window menu.

The Help menu.

389

L2.1.9 Window Menu

The Window menu (Figure L2.14) allows you to arrange the windows (or
iconized windows) that are currently displayed on the screen so that all windows
are visible at once. It also lets you bring any individual window to the front of the
display.

L2.1.10 Help Menu

The Help menu (Figure L2.15) accesses the ProModel Online Help System
and provides access to the ProModel Tutorial (getting started). Access to the
PROMODEL Corporation website is also provided here. The index is an alphabetic list of all the help topics in the online help system. The main help topics are
categorized as follows:

Common procedures.
Overview of ProModel.
Main menus.
Shortcut menu.
Model elements (entities, resources, locations, path networks, and so on).
Logic elements (variables, attributes, arrays, expressions, and so forth).
Statements (GET, JOIN, and the like).

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Functions.
Customer supporttelephone, pager, fax, e-mail, online le transfer,
and so on.
To quickly learn what is new in ProModel Version 6.0, go to the Help
Index menu and type new features for a description of the latest features of the
product.

L2.2 Basic Modeling Elements

In this section we introduce the various basic modeling elements in ProModel. In
Lab 3 you will actually build your rst ProModel simulation model. The basic
modeling elements in ProModel are
a.
b.
c.
d.

Locations
Entities
Arrivals
Processing

Click Build from the menu bar to access these modeling elements (Figure L2.4).
The ProModel Student Version 6.0 limits the user to no more than 20 locations, ve entity types, ve resource types, ve attributes, and 10 RTI parameters
in a simulation model. If more capability is required for special projects, ask your
instructor to contact the PROMODEL corporation about faculty or network versions of the software.

L2.2.1 Locations
Locations represent xed places in the system where entities are routed for processing, delay, storage, decision making, or some other activity. We need some
type of receiving locations to hold incoming entities. We also need processing
locations where entities have value added to them. To build locations:
a. Left-click on the desired location icon in the Graphics toolbox. Left-click
in the layout window where you want the location to appear.
b. A record is automatically created for the location in the Locations edit
table (Figure L2.16).
c. Clicking in the appropriate box and typing in the desired changes can
now change the name, units, capacity, and so on. Note that in Lab 3 we
will actually ll in this information for an example model.

L2.2.2 Entities
Anything that a model can process is called an entity. Some examples are parts or
widgets in a factory, patients in a hospital, customers in a bank or a grocery store,
and travelers calling in for airline reservations.

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FIGURE L2.16
The Locations edit screen.

To build entities:
a. Left-click on the desired entity graphic in the Entity Graphics toolbox.
b. A record will automatically be created in the Entities edit table
(Figure L2.17).
c. Moving the slide bar in the toolbox can then change the name. Note that
in Lab 3 we will actually ll in this information for an example model.

L2.2.3 Arrivals
The mechanism for dening how entities enter the system is called arrivals. Entities can arrive singly or in batches. The number of entities arriving at a time is
called the batch size (Qty each). The time between the arrivals of successive entities is called interarrival time (Frequency). The total number of batches of arrivals
is termed Occurrences. The batch size, time between successive arrivals, and total
number of batches can be either constants or random (statistical distributions).
Also, the rst time that the arrival pattern is to begin is termed First Time.
To create arrivals:
a. Left-click on the entity name in the toolbox and left-click on the location
where you would like the entities to arrive (Figure L2.18).
b. Enter the various required data about the arrival process. Note that in
Lab 3 we will actually ll in this information for an example model.

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FIGURE L2.17
The Entities edit table.

FIGURE L2.18
The Arrivals edit table.

L2.2.4 Processing
Processing describes the operations that take place at a location, such as the
amount of time an entity spends there, the resources it needs to complete processing, and anything else that happens at the location, including selecting an entitys
next destination.

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FIGURE L2.19
The Process edit table.

To create processing we need to do the following:

a. Left-click on the entity name in the toolbar and then left-click on the
desired beginning location (Figure L2.19).
b. Left-click on the destination location. A processing record is created.
c. To add multiple routing lines to the same record, left-click on the Add
Routing button in the toolbox.
d. To route the part to exit, left-click on the Route to Exit button in the
toolbox. Note that in Lab 3 we will actually ll in this information for an
example model.

L2.3 Innovative Features in ProModel

In this section we describe some of the innovative features in ProModel. These
features help automate the model-building process, eliminate the need to remember command syntax, and all but eliminate unintentional errors.

L2.3.1 Logic Builder

The Logic Builder (Figure L2.20) is a tool that makes it easier to create valid logic
statements without having to remember keywords, syntax, required arguments, or
model element names. It takes you through the process of creating statements or
expressions, as well as providing point-and-click access to every element dened
in your model. The Logic Builder knows the syntax of every statement and function, allowing you to dene logic simply by lling in the blanks.

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FIGURE L2.20
The Logic Builder tool
menu.

When the Logic Builder is open from a logic window, it remains on the screen
until you click the Close button or close the logic window or table from which it
was invoked. This allows you to enter multiple statements in a logic window and
even move around to other logic windows without having to constantly close and
reopen the Logic Builder. However, the Logic Builder closes automatically after
pasting to a eld in a dialog box or edit table or to an expression eld because you
must right-click anyway to use the Logic Builder in another eld.
You can move to another logic window or eld while the Logic Builder is still
up by right clicking in that eld or logic window. The Logic Builder is then reset
with only valid statements and elements for that eld or window, and it will paste
the logic you build into that eld or window. Some of the commonly used logic
statements available in ProModel are as follows:

WAIT:

Used for delaying an entity for a specied duration at a location,

possibly for processing it.
STOP: Terminates the current replication and optionally displays a message.
GROUP: Temporarily consolidates a specied quantity of similar entities
together.
LOAD: Temporarily attaches a specied quantity of entities to the current
entity.

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INC:

Increments a variable, array element, or attribute by the value of a

specied numeric expression.
UNGROUP: Separates entities that were grouped using the GROUP statement.
MOVE: Moves the entity to the end of the queue in the specied time.
VIEW: Changes the view of the layout window.
GRAPHIC: Changes the entitys current picture (graphic).
IF THEN ELSE: Executes a block of statements if the condition is true.
WAIT UNTIL: Delays the processing of the current logic until the condition
is true.
MOVE FOR: Moves the entity to the next location, in the specied time.
SPLIT: Splits the entity into a specied number of entities.
PAUSE: Causes the execution of simulation to pause until the user selects
the Resume option.

L2.3.2 Dynamic Plots

Dynamic plots enable you to graphically observe and record statistical information about the performance of model elements during run time. When the simulation model is running, it needs to be paused (Simulation Pause Simulation).
With the model in the pause mode select Dynamic Plots New from the Information menu as in Figure L2.21.
The dynamic plots dialog contains a factors list, four panels, and several button controls. The factors list (Figure L2.22) provides each of the available model
factors from your model, and the panels (Figure L2.23) display performance graphs
for the factors you select (ProModel Help, 2001 PROMODEL Corporation).
Button Controls
Save: Saves a copy of all model datafrom the time you start the graphic
display to when you click saveto an Excel spreadsheet.
Snapshot: Saves a copy of currently displayed, graphed model data to an
Excel spreadsheet.
Grid: Turns the main panel grid lines on and off.
Multi-line: Displays a combined graph of panels 1, 2, and 3.
Refresh: Redraws the graph.
FIGURE L2.21
Dynamic Plots menu.

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FIGURE L2.22
Dynamic Plot edit
table.

FIGURE L2.23
Dynamic Plot of the
current value of WIP.

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Right-Click Menus
The right-click menu for the graphic display is available for panels 1, 2, and 3, and
the main panel. When you right-click in any of these panels, the right-click menu
appears.
Panels 1, 2, and 3
Move Up: Places the graph in the main panel.
Clear Data: Removes the factor and its graph from panel 1, 2, or 3 and
the main panel. If you created a multi-line graph, Clear Data removes
the selected line from the graph and does not disturb the remaining graph
lines.
Line Color: Allows you to assign a specic line color to the graph.
Background Color: Allows you to dene a specic background color for
panels 1, 2, and 3.
Main Panel
Clear All Data: Removes all factors and graphs from panels 1, 2, 3, and
the main panel.
Remove Line 1, 2, 3: Deletes a specic line from the main panel.
Line Color: Allows you to assign a specic line color to the graph.
Background Color: Allows you to dene a specic background color for
panels 1, 2, and 3.
Grid Color: Allows you to assign a specic line color to the grid.

L2.3.3 Customize
Customize
You can add direct links to applications and les right on your ProModel toolbar.
Create a link to open a spreadsheet, a text document, or your favorite calculator
(Figure L2.24).
To create or modify your Custom Tools menu, select Tools Customize
from your ProModel menu bar. This will pull up the Custom Tools dialog window.
The Custom Tools dialog window allows you to add, delete, edit, or rearrange the
menu items that appear on the Tools drop-down menu in ProModel.

L2.3.4 Quick Bar

Overview
QuickBar is a versatile tool that can make your work in ProModel much faster
(Figure L2.25). This tool is similar to the Windows Taskbar. You can move the bar
around your screen or dock it on one side. Each button on the toolbar resembles
an associated action in ProModel. You can jump straight to the Build Locations
module, or open a new model with the click of a button.

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FIGURE L2.24
Adding Calculator to the Customized Tools menu.

FIGURE L2.25
The QuickBar task bar.

QuickBar is fully customizable. QuickBar allows you to remove buttons, add

custom ProModel buttons, or add custom buttons launching other applications
(ProModel Help, 2001 PROMODEL Corporation).
System Button
Selecting the System button brings up a menu with the following options:
Auto-Hide: The Auto-Hide feature is used when QuickBar is in the
docked state. If docked, and the Auto-Hide is on, QuickBar will shrink, so
that only a couple of pixels show. When your pointer touches these visible
pixels, the QuickBar will appear again.
Docking Position: The Docking Position prompt allows you to dock the
QuickBar along one side of your screen, or leave it oating.
Customize: Access the customize screen by clicking the System button,
then choose Customize. . . . Once in the Customize dialog, you can add
or remove toolbars, add or remove buttons from the toolbars, show or
hide toolbars, or move buttons up or down on the toolbar.

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About: The About option will display information about QuickBar.

Close QuickBar: The Close QuickBar option will close QuickBar, but
will not change any customizing you may have made to QuickBar.

L2.4 A Tutorial on ProModel 6.0

A tutorial on ProModel is included in the accompanying CD along with the
ProModel software (Figure L2.26). Click on the lower right button to run the
ProModel tutorial. Microsoft PowerPoint is needed to view the tutorial.
This tutorial is meant to familiarize the user with various features of ProModel and its strengths. The le named tutorial.ppt is in a PowerPoint presentation format and will execute by itself. The tutorial takes approximately 20 minutes
to run and is divided into 10 major steps. Slides for each of the 10 steps also
include animation that shows the model-building process clearly:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

FIGURE L2.26
Tutorial on ProModel.

Start new model

Background graphic
Locations
Entities
Path networks

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6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Resources
Processing
Arrivals
Run simulation
View output

L2.5 Exercises
1. Identify the ProModel menu where you will nd the following items:
a. Save As
b. Delete
c. View Trace
d. Shifts
e. Index
f. General Information
g. Options
h. Printer Setup
i. Processing
j. Scenarios
k. Tile
l. Zoom
2. Which of the following is not a valid ProModel menu or submenu item?
a. AutoBuild
b. Whats This?
c. Merge
d. Merge Documents
e. Snap to Grid
f. Normal
g. Paste
h. Print Preview
i. View Text
3. Some of the following are not valid ProModel element names. Which ones?
a. Activities
b. Locations
c. Conveyors
d. Queues
e. Shifts
f. Station
g. Server
h. Schedules
i. Arrivals
j. Expressions

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5.

6.

7.

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k. Variables
l. Create
What are some of the valid logic statements used in ProModel?
What are some of the differences between the following logic
statements:
a. Wait versus Wait Until.
b. Move versus Move For.
c. Pause versus Stop.
d. View versus Graphic.
e. Split versus Ungroup.
Describe the functions of the following items in the ProModel Edit menu:
a. Delete
b. Insert
c. Append
d. Move
e. Move to
f. Copy Record
g. Paste Record
Describe the differences between the following items in the ProModel
View menu:
a. Zoom vs. Zoom to Fit Layout
b. Show Grid vs. Snap to Grid

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RUNNING A PROMODEL
SIMULATION

As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far
as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.
Albert Einstein

Lab 3 provides some experience running ProModel simulations before building

your rst simulation model using ProModel in Lab 4. The example model used in
this lab is of the ATM system that was simulated in Chapter 3 with a spreadsheet.
Lab 3 demonstrates the efciency with which systems can be simulated with
ProModel.

L3.1 ATM System Specications and Problem Statement

In a moment you will load and run a ProModel simulation of an automatic teller
machine (ATM) system described as follows:
Customers arrive to use an ATM at an average interarrival time of 3.0 minutes exponentially distributed. When customers arrive to the system, they join a queue to wait
for their turn on the ATM. The queue has the capacity to hold an innite number of customers. Customers spend an average of 2.4 minutes, exponentially distributed, at the
ATM to complete their transactions, which is called the service time at the ATM.

The objective is to simulate the system to determine the expected waiting time for
customers in the queue (the average time customers wait in line for the ATM) and
the expected time in the system (the average time customers wait in the queue plus
the average time it takes them to complete their transaction at the ATM).
This is the same ATM system simulated by spreadsheet in Chapter 3 but with
a different objective. The Chapter 3 objective was to simulate only the rst 25 customers arriving to the system. Now no such restriction has been applied. This new
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objective provides an opportunity for comparing the simulated results with those
computed using queuing theory, which was presented in Section 2.9.3.
Queuing theory allows us to compute the exact values for the expected time
that customers wait in the queue and in the system. Given that queuing theory can
be used to get exact answers, why are we using simulation to estimate the two expected values? There are two parts to the answer. First, it gives us an opportunity
to measure the accuracy of simulation by comparing the simulation output with
the exact results produced using queuing theory. Second, most systems of interest
are too complex to be modeled with the mathematical equations of queuing theory. In those cases, good estimates from simulation are valuable commodities
when faced with expensive decisions.

L3.1.1 Queuing Theorys Answer to the ATM System

We learned in Chapter 2 that queuing theory can be used to calculate the steadystate or long-term expected values of particular performance measures. A system
reaches steady state after it has been running awhile with no changes in the conditions inuencing the system. After a stream of customers arrives to the ATM
over time, the system will begin to reach steady state, which means that the statistical distributions that describe the output of the system stabilize. The steadystate topic is covered in detail in Chapter 9.
Using the queuing theory equations from Section 2.9.3, the expected time
customers wait in the queue is 9.6 minutes and the expected amount of time customers spend in the system is 12.0 minutes. Lets use a ProModel simulation to
estimate these values.

L3.1.2 ProModels Answer to the ATM System

The ProModel model of the ATM system is provided with the Student ProModel
CD accompanying the textbook. Load the ATM system simulation model using
the File option on the ProModel menu bar across the top of the screen. Click on
File and Open, and then select the Lab3_1_2 ATM System.mod le from the CD.
Begin the simulation by pressing the F10 function key. The animation is very
informative and is more interesting to watch than was the Excel spreadsheet simulation of Chapter 3 (Figure L3.1).
The ProModel simulation is programmed to pause the simulation and display
progress messages. To continue the simulation after reading a message, press the
OK button at the bottom of the message (Figures L3.2 and L3.3).
The simulation results of an average 9.47 minutes in the queue and an average of 11.86 minutes in the system (Figure L3.4) are close to the steady-state
expected values of 9.6 minutes in the queue and 12.0 minutes in the system
computed using queuing theory. You can get closer to the exact values if needed.
Chapter 9 discusses how to achieve a desired level of accuracy.
ProModel displays a prompt at the end of the simulation asking if you want
to collect statistics; select No for now (Figure L3.5). ProModel automatically

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Lab 3

FIGURE L3.1
ATM simulation in
progress. System
events are animated
and key performance
measures are
dynamically updated.

FIGURE L3.2
The simulation clock
shows 1 hour and
20 minutes (80
minutes) to process
the rst 25 customers
arriving to the system.
The simulation takes
only a second of your
time to process 25
customers.

FIGURE L3.3
ATM simulation on its
15,000th customer and
approaching steady
state.

3. Running a ProModel
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FIGURE L3.4
ATM simulation after
reaching steady state.

FIGURE L3.5
ATM simulation at its
end.

collects a multitude of statistics over the course of the simulation. You will learn
this feature in Lab 4.
The simulation required only a minute of your time to process 19,496 customers. In Lab 4, you will begin to see how easy it is to build models using ProModel as compared to building them with spreadsheets.

L3.2 Exercises
1. The values obtained for average time in queue and average time in
system from the ATM ProModel simulation of the rst 25 customers
processed represent a third set of observations that can be combined
with the observations for the same performance measures presented in
Table 3.3 of Section 3.5.3 in Chapter 3 that were derived from two

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replications of the spreadsheet simulation. The ProModel output

represents a third replication of the simulation.
a. What must be true in order for the ProModel output to be counted as
a third replication?
b. Compute new estimates for the average time in queue and average
time in system for the rst 25 customers processed by combining the
appropriate observations from the three replications (two spreadsheet
replications and one ProModel replication). Do you think your new
estimates are better than the previous estimates of 1.39 minutes for
the average time in queue and 3.31 minutes for average time in
system from Table 3.3? Why?
2. Select Locations from the ProModel Build menu with the Lab3_1_2
ATM System.mod le loaded. Notice that the Capacity (Cap.) eld for
the ATM_Queue location is set to INFINITY in the Locations Edit Table.
The Cap. eld denes the maximum number of entities that can
simultaneously occupy the location. In this case, an innite number of
entities can occupy the location. Also, notice that FIFO (rst-in, rst-out)
appears in the Rules eld for the ATM_Queue location. FIFO indicates
that entities waiting for the ATM are processed through the ATM_Queue
in the order that they arrived to the location. Are these assumptions of
queuing theory? Which assumption is the least realistic? What would
you program into the ProModel model to make it a more realistic
simulation of an ATM system?
3. Select Arrivals from the ProModel Build menu with the Lab3_1_2 ATM
System.mod le loaded. The rst two elds in the Arrivals Edit Table
declare which entities are to arrive into the simulation and where they
are to arrive. In this case, the entities are named ATM_Customer. They
arrive to the ATM_Queue location. Notice that the Frequency eld is set
to E(3.0). The Frequency eld controls the interarrival time of entities,
which is exponentially distributed with a mean of 3.0 minutes, E(3.0),
for the ATM system. Which column in Table 3.2 of the spreadsheet
simulation in Chapter 3 corresponds to this Frequency eld?
4. Select Processing from the ProModel Build menu with the Lab3_1_2
ATM System.mod le loaded. After the ATM_Customer arrives to the
ATM_Queue and waits for its turn at the automatic teller machine, it is
routed to the ATM location. The customers transaction time at the ATM
is modeled with the Wait E(2.4) statement under the Operation eld of
the processing record for the ATM_Customer at the ATM location.
Which column in Table 3.2 of the spreadsheet simulation in Chapter 3
corresponds to this Wait E(2.4) statement in the Operation eld?

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BUILDING YOUR
FIRST MODEL

Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
Johann von Goethe

In this lab we build our rst simulation model using ProModel. In Section L4.1
we describe some of the basic concepts of building your rst ProModel simulation
model. Section L4.2 introduces the concept of queue in ProModel. Section L4.3
lets us build a model with multiple locations and multiple entities. In Section L4.4
we show how to modify an existing model and add more locations to it. Finally,
in Section L4.5 we show how variability in arrival time and customer service time
affect the performance of the system.

L4.1 Building Your First Simulation Model

In this section we describe how you can build your very rst simulation model
using ProModel software. We introduce the concepts of locations, entities, entity
arrivals, processes, and routing.
Customers visit the neighborhood barbershop Fantastic Dan for a haircut.
The customer interarrival time is exponentially distributed with an average of
10 minutes. Dan (the barber) takes anywhere from 8 to 10 minutes, uniformly distributed (mean and half-width of 9 and 1 minute respectively) for each haircut.
This time also includes the initial greetings and the transaction of money at the
end of the haircut. Run the simulation model for one day (480 minutes). Find
these answers:
a. About how many customers does Dan process per day?
b. What is the average number of customers waiting to get a haircut? What
is the maximum?
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FIGURE L4.1
General Information
for the Fantastic Dan
simulation model.

c. What is the average time spent by a customer in the salon?

d. What is the utilization of Barber Dan?
e. What is the maximum and average number of customers waiting for a
haircut?
From the menu bar select File New. In the General Information panel
(Figure L4.1) ll in the title of the simulation model as Fantastic Dan. Fill in
some of other general information about the model like the time and distance
units. Click OK to proceed to dene the locations.
From the menu bar select Build Locations. Dene two locations
Waiting_for_Barber and Barber_Dan (Figure L4.2). Note that the rst location
is actually a region (it is the icon that looks like a square box). A region is a
boundary used to represent a locations area. When the model is running the
region is not visible. The icon selected for the second location is actually called
operator. We changed its name to Barber_Dan (Name column in the Location
table).
Check off the New button on the Graphics panel (Figure L4.3) and click the
button marked Aa. Click on the location icon in the Layout panel. The name of the
location (Barber_Dan) appears on the location icon.
Dene the entity (Figure L4.4) and change its name to Customer. Dene
the processes and the routings (Figures L4.5 and L4.6) the customers go
through at the barbershop. All customers arrive and wait at the location
Waiting_for_Barber. Then they are routed to the location Barber_Dan. At this
location the barber performs the haircut, which takes an amount of time
uniformly distributed between 8 and 10 minutes or Uniform (9,1). Use the stepby-step procedure detailed in section L2.2.4 to create the process and routing
tables graphically.

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Building Your First Model

FIGURE L4.2
Dening locations Waiting_ for_Barber and BarberDan.

FIGURE L4.3
The Graphics panel.

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FIGURE L4.4
Dene the entityCustomer.

FIGURE L4.5
Process and Routing tables for Fantastic Dan model.

FIGURE L4.6
Process and Routing tables for Fantastic Dan model in text format.

To dene the haircut time, click Operation in the Process table. Click the button with the hammer symbol. A new window named Logic Builder opens up.
Select the command Wait. The ProModel expression Wait causes the customer (entity) to be delayed for a specied amount of time. This is how processing times are
modeled.
Click Build Expression. In the Logic window, select Distribution Function
(Figure L4.7). In the Distribution Function window, select Uniform distribution.
Click Mean and select 9. Click Half-Range and select 1. Click Return. Click
Paste. Close the Logic Builder window. Close the Operation window.
Finally the customers leave the barbershop. They are routed to a default location called EXIT in ProModel. When entities (or customers) are routed to the
EXIT location, they are in effect disposed from the system. All the information associated with the disposed entity is deleted from the computers memory to conserve space.

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Building Your First Model

FIGURE L4.7
The Logic Builder
menu.

TABLE L4.1 Commonly Used Distribution Functions

Distribution

ProModel Expression

Uniform
Triangular
Exponential
Normal

U (mean, half-range)
T (minimum, mode, maximum)
E (mean)
N (mean, std. dev.)

The distribution functions are built into ProModel and generate random values based on the specied distribution. Some of the commonly used distribution
functions are shown in Table 4.1.
Now we will dene the entity arrival process, as in Figure L4.8.
Next we will dene some of the simulation optionsthat is, run time, number of replications, warm-up time, unit of time, and clock precision (Figure L4.9).
The run time is the number of hours the simulation model will be run. The number of replications refers to number of times the simulation model will be run
(each time the model will run for an amount of time specied by run hours). The

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FIGURE L4.8
Customer arrival table.

FIGURE L4.9
Denition of
simulation run
options.

warm-up time refers to the amount of time to let the simulation model run to
achieve steady-state behavior. Statistics are usually collected after the warm-up
period is over. The run time begins at the end of the warm-up period. The unit of
time used in the model can be seconds, minutes, or hours. The clock precision
refers to the precision in the time unit used to measure all simulation event
timings.
Let us select the Run option from the Simulation Options menu (or click
F10). Figure L4.10 shows a screen shot during run time. The button in the middle
of the scroll bar at the top controls the speed of the simulation run. Pull it right to
increase the speed and left to decrease the speed.
After the simulation runs to its completion, the user is prompted, Do you
want to see the results? (Figure L4.11). Click Yes. Figures L4.12 and L4.13 are
part of the results that are automatically generated by ProModel in the 3DR
(three-dimensional report) Output Viewer.

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FIGURE L4.10
Screen shot at run time.

FIGURE L4.11
Simulation complete
prompt.

FIGURE L4.12
The 3DR Output
Viewer for the
Fantastic Dan model.

Note that the average time a customer spends waiting for Barber Dan
is 22.95 minutes. The average time spent by a customer in the barbershop is
32.28 minutes. The utilization of the Barber is 89.15 percent. The number of
customers served in 480 minutes (or 8 hours) is 47. On average 5.875 customers
are served per hour. The maximum number of customers waiting for a haircut is 8,
although the average number of customers waiting is only 2.3.

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FIGURE L4.13
Results of the Fantastic Dan simulation model.

L4.2 Building the Bank of USA ATM Model

In this section we describe how you can build a simplied version of the automatic teller machine (ATM) system model described in Lab 3, Section L3.1, using
ProModel software. We also introduce the concept of a queue.
Customers arrive to use a Bank of USA ATM. The average customer interarrival time is 3.0 minutes exponentially distributed. When customers arrive to the
system they join a queue to wait for their turn on the ATM. The queue has the
capacity to hold an innite number of customers. Customers spend an average of

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2.4 minutes exponentially distributed at the ATM to complete their transactions,

which is called the service time at the ATM. Build a simulation model of the Bank
of USA ATM. Run the simulation model for 980 hours.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

About how many customers are served per hour?

What is the average customer waiting time in the queue?
What is the average time spent by a customer in the system?
What is the utilization of the ATM?
What are the maximum and average numbers of customers waiting in the
ATM queue?

From the menu bar select File New. In the General Information panel
(Figure L4.14) ll in the title of the simulation model as Bank of USAATM. Fill
in some of the other general information about the model like the time and
distance units. Click OK to proceed to dene the locations.
From the menu bar select Build Locations. Dene two locationsATM
and ATM_Queue (Figure L4.15). The icon selected for the rst location is actually
called brake. We changed its name to ATM (Name column in the Location table).
The icon for the second location (a queue) is selected from the graphics panel.
The icon (third from top) originally looks like a ladder on its side. To place it
in our model layout rst, left-click the mouse at the start location of the queue. Then
drag the mouse pointer to the end of the queue and right-click. Change the name of
this queue location from Loc1 ATM_Queue. Now double-click theATM_Queue
icon on the layout. This opens another window as follows (Figure L4.16). Make
sure to click on the Queue option in the Conveyor/Queue options window. Change
the length of the queue to be exactly 31.413 feet.

FIGURE L4.14
General Information
for the Bank of USA
ATM simulation
model.

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FIGURE L4.15
Dening locations ATM_Queue and ATM.

FIGURE L4.16
Click on the Queue
option in the
Conveyor/Queue
options window.

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Check off the New button on the graphics panel (Figure L4.15) and click the
button marked Aa (fourth icon from top). Click on the location icon in the layout
panel. The name of the location (ATM) appears on the location icon. Do the same
for the ATM_Queue location.
Dene the entity (Figure L4.17) and change its name to ATM_Customer.
Dene the processes and the routings (Figures L4.18 and L4.19) the customers
go through at the ATM system. All customers arrive and wait at the location
ATM_Queue. Then they are routed to the location ATM. At this location the
customers deposit or withdraw money or check their balances, which takes an
average of 2.4 minutes exponentially distributed. Use the step-by-step procedure
detailed in section L2.2.4 to create the process and routing tables graphically.
To dene the service time at the ATM, click Operation in the Process table.
Click the button with the hammer symbol. A new window named Logic Builder
opens up. Select the command Wait. The ProModel expression Wait causes the
ATM customer (entity) to be delayed for a specied amount of time. This is how
processing times are modeled.
FIGURE L4.17
Dene the entityATM_Customer.

FIGURE L4.18
Process and Routing tables for Bank of USA ATM model.

FIGURE L4.19
Process and Routing tables for Bank of USA ATM model in text format.

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FIGURE L4.20
The Logic Builder
menu.

FIGURE L4.21
Customer arrival table.

Click Build Expression. In the Logic window, select Distribution Functions

(Figure L4.20). In the Distribution Functions window, select Exponential distribution. Click Mean and select 2.4. Click Return. Click MIN. Click Paste. Close the
Logic Builder window. Close the Operation window.
Finally the customers leave the Bank of USA ATM. They are routed to a default location called EXIT in ProModel. When entities (or customers) are routed
to the EXIT location, they are in effect disposed from the system. All the information associated with the disposed entity is deleted from the computers memory to conserve space.
Now we will dene the entity arrival process, as in Figure L4.21.
Next we will dene some of the simulation optionsthat is, run time, number
of replications, warm-up time, unit of time, and clock precision (Figure L4.22). The
run time is the number of hours the simulation model will be run. In this example

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FIGURE L4.22
Denition of
simulation run options.

we are going to model 980 hours of operation of the ATM system. The number of
replications refers to the number of times the simulation model will be run (each
time the model will run for an amount of time specied by run hours). The warm-up
time refers to the amount of time to let the simulation model run to achieve steadystate behavior. Statistics are usually collected after the warm-up period is over. The
run time begins at the end of the warm-up period. For a more detailed discussion on
warm-up time, please refer to Chapter 9, Section 9.6.1 and Lab 9. The unit of time
used in the model can be seconds, minutes, or hours. The clock precision refers to the
precision in the time unit used to measure all simulation event timings.
Let us select the Run option from the Simulation Options menu (or click
F10). Figure L4.23 shows a screen shot during run time. The button in the middle
of the scroll bar at the top controls the speed of the simulation run. Pull it right to
increase the speed and left to decrease the simulation execution speed.
After the simulation runs to its completion, the user is prompted, Do you want
to see the results? (Figure L4.24). Click Yes. Figures L4.25 and L4.26 are part of
the results that are automatically generated by ProModel in the Output Viewer.
Note that the average time a customer spends waiting in the ATM Queue
is 9.62 minutes. The average time spent by a customer in the ATM system is
12.02 minutes. The utilization of the ATM is 79.52 percent. Also, 20,000 customers
are served in 60,265.64 minutes or 19.91 customers per hour. The maximum number of customers waiting in the ATM Queue is 31, although the average number of

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FIGURE L4.23
Screen shot at run time.

FIGURE L4.24
Simulation complete
prompt.

FIGURE L4.25
The output viewer for
the Bank of USA ATM
model.

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Model

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FIGURE L4.26
Results of the Bank of USA ATM simulation model.

customers waiting is only 3.19. This model is an enhancement of the ATM model
in Lab 3, Section L3.1.2. Results will not match exactly as some realism has been
added to the model that cannot be addressed in queuing theory.

L4.3 Locations, Entities, Processing, and Arrivals

In Sections L4.1 and L4.2 we have used the basic elements of ProModel. In this
section we incorporate locations, entities, arrivals, processing, and routing logic
into another simulation model example.

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Problem StatementMultiple Locations, Multiple Entities

Wooden logs are received at the receiving dock of the Poly Furniture Factory at
the rate of one every 10 minutes. Logs go to the splitter, where four pieces are
made from each log. The splitting time is Normal (4,1) minutes. The individual
pieces go to the lathe, where they are turned for another Triangular (3,6,9) minutes
and made into rounds. The rounds go on to a paint booth, where they are converted into painted logs. Painting takes Exponential (5) minutes. Painted logs go
to the store. Consider a material handling time of one minute between each
process. Make a simulation model and run the simulation for 10 hours.
We are going to use AutoBuild, the automatic model-building feature of
ProModel, to help us build this simulation model step by step. Click AutoBuild
from the Tools menu. Fill in some of the general information about the model
(Figure L4.27). Dene the locations (Figure L4.28)receiving dock, splitter saw,
lathe, paint booth, and painted logs store. Note that the capacity of the receiving
dock location has been changed to innity (INF) to make sure that all incoming
entities (raw material) are allowed into the manufacturing facility.
Dene the entities (Figure L4.29)logs, piece, rounds, and painted logs.
Dene the entity arrival process (Figure L4.30)logs arriving to the location
receiving dock at the rate of one every 10 minutes.
Dene the processes and the routings (Figure L4.31). All logs arrive at the receiving dock. From there they go to the splitter. At the splitter each log is made
into four pieces. To be able to model this, click on the Rule button in the routing
table. Change the quantity to four. This models the process of one log going into
the location splitter saw and four pieces coming out. Pieces are routed to the lathe,
where they become rounds. Rounds are routed to the paint booth, where they become painted logs. Painted logs are sent to the painted log store. Finally, the
painted logs are sent to the default location EXIT for disposal.
FIGURE L4.27
General information
for the Poly Furniture
Factory simulation.

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FIGURE L4.28
Locations in the Poly Furniture Factory.

FIGURE L4.29
Entities in the Poly Furniture Factory.

FIGURE L4.30
Entity arrivals in the Poly Furniture Factory.

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FIGURE L4.31
Processes and routings in the Poly Furniture Factory.

FIGURE L4.32
Simulation options in
the Poly Furniture
Factory.

The time to move material between processes is modeled in the Move Logic
eld of the Routing table. Four choices of constructs are available in the Move
Logic eld:

MOVEto

move the entity to the end of a queue or conveyor.

MOVE FORto move the entity to the next location in a specic time.
MOVE ONto move the entity to the next location using a specic path
network.
MOVE WITHto move the entity to the next location using a specic
resource (forklift, crane).
Dene some of the simulation options: the simulation run time (in hours), the
number of replications, the warm-up time (in hours), and the clock precision
(Figure L4.32).
Now we go on to the Simulation menu. Select Save & Run. This will save the
model we have built so far, compile it, and also run it. When the simulation model
nishes running, we will be asked if we would like to view the results. Select Yes.
A sample of the results is shown in Figure L4.33.

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FIGURE L4.33
Sample of the results of the simulation run for the Poly Furniture Factory.

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L4.4 Add Location

Now let us add a location to an existing model. For the Poly Furniture Factory example in Section L4.3, we will add an oven after the painting booth for drying the
painted logs individually. The drying takes a time that is normally distributed with
a mean of 20 minutes and standard deviation of 2 minutes. After drying, the
painted logs go on to the painted logs store.
To add an additional location to the model, select Locations from the Build
menu. With the mouse, rst select the appropriate resource icon from the Graphics
toolbar (left-click), then left-click again in the Layout window. Change the name
of the location (in the Locations table) from Loc1 to Oven (Figure L4.34).
Locations can also be added from the Edit menu. Select Append from the Edit
menu. A new location called Loc1 is appended to the end of the Locations table.
Change the name to Oven. Deselect the New option in the Graphics toolbar. Select
an appropriate icon from the Graphics toolbar. Click in the Layout window.
To display the names of each location in the Layout window, rst select a location (left-click). Next deselect the New option in the graphics toolbar. Left-click on
the command button Aa in the Graphics toolbar (left column, fourth from top).
Finally, left-click on the location selected. The name of the location will appear in
the Layout window. Now it can be repositioned and its fonts and color changed.
The complete simulation model layout is shown in Figure L4.35. Note that the
capacity of the oven as well as the paint booth has been changed to 10. The processes
and routings are created as shown in Figure L4.36. At this point it is worthwhile to
note the differences between the capacity and the units of a location.
Capacity: This is the number of units of entities that the location can hold
simultaneously. The default capacity of a location is one.
Units: A multiunit location consists of several identical units that are
referenced as a single location for processing and routing purposes. A
multiunit location eliminates the need to create multiple locations and
multiple processes for locations that do the same thing. The default number
of units of a location is one.
FIGURE L4.34
Locations at the Poly Furniture Factory with oven.

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FIGURE L4.35
Simulation model layout of the Poly Furniture Factory.

FIGURE L4.36
Processes and routings at the Poly Furniture Factory.

The contents of a location can be displayed in one of the following two alternative ways:
a. To show the contents of a location as a counter, rst deselect the New
option from the Graphics toolbar. Left-click on the command button 00
in the Graphics toolbar (left column, top). Finally, left-click on the
location selected (Oven). The location counter will appear in the Layout
window next to the location Oven (Figure L4.35).
b. To show the contents of a location (Paint Booth) as a gauge, rst deselect
the New option from the Graphics toolbar. Left-click on the second
command button from the top in the left column in the Graphics toolbar.

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The gauge icon will appear in the Layout window next to the location
Paint Booth (Figure L4.35). The ll color and ll direction of the gauge
can now be changed if needed.

L4.5 Effect of Variability on Model Performance

Variability in the data makes a big impact on the performance of any system. Let
us take the example of Fantastic Dan, the barbershop in Section L4.1. Assume that
one customer arrives for getting a haircut every 10 minutes. Also, Dan takes exactly nine minutes for each haircut.
Let us modify the model of Section L4.1 to reect the above changes. The arrival table is changed as shown in Figure L4.37 and the process table is changed
as shown in Figure L4.38. The results of the model with and without variability
are compared and shown in Table L4.2.

FIGURE L4.37
Customer arrival for haircut.

FIGURE L4.38
Processing of customers at the barbershop.

TABLE L4.2 Comparison of the Barbershop Model with and without

Variability

Average customer time at the barbershop

Average waiting in line for barber

With Variability

Without Variability

32.27 min.
22.95 min.

9 min.
0 min.

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L4.6 Blocking
With respect to the way statistics are gathered, here are the rules that are used in
ProModel (see the ProModel Users Manual, p. 636):
1. Average <time> in system: The average total time the entity spends in
the system, from the time it arrives till it exits the system.
2. Average <time> in operation: The average time the entity spends in
processing at a location (due to a WAIT statement) or traveling on a
conveyor or queue.
3. Average <time> in transit: The average time the entity spends traveling
to the next location, either in or out of a queue or with a resource. The
move time in a queue is decided by the length of the queue (dened in
the queue dialog, Figure L4.16) and the speed of the entity (dened in
the entity dialog, Figure L4.4 or L4.17).
4. Average < time> wait for resource, etc.: The average time the entity spends
waiting for a resource or another entity to join, combine, or the like.
5. Average < time> blocked: The average time the entity spends waiting for
a destination location to become available. Any entities held up behind
another blocked entity are actually waiting on the blocked entity, so they
are reported as time waiting for resource, etc.
Example
At the SoCal Machine Shop (Figure L4.39) gear blanks arriving to the shop wait
in a queue (Incoming_Q) for processing on a turning center and a mill, in that
FIGURE L4.39
The Layout of the SoCal Machine Shop.

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order. A total of 100 gear blanks arrive at the rate of one every eight minutes. The
processing times on the turning center and mill are eight minutes and nine minutes, respectively. Develop a simulation model and run it.
To gure out the time the gear blanks are blocked in the machine shop,
waiting for a processing location, we have entered Move for 0 in the operation
logic (Figure L4.40) of the Incoming_Q. Also, the decision rule for the queue has
been changed to No Queuing in place of FIFO (Figure L4.41). This way all the
entities waiting in the queue for the turning center to be freed up are reported as
blocked. When you specify FIFO as the queuing rule for a location, only the lead
entity is ever blocked (other entities in the location are waiting for the lead entity
and are reported as wait for resource, etc.).
FIGURE L4.40
Process and Routing tables for SoCal Machine Shop.

FIGURE L4.41
Decision rules for Incoming_Q.

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FIGURE L4.42
Entity activity statistics at the SoCal Machine Shop.

FIGURE L4.43
Entity activity statistics at the SoCal Machine Shop with two mills.

From the entity activity statistics (Figure L4.42) in the output report we can see
the entities spend on average or 66.5 minutes in the system, of which 49.5 minutes
are blocked (waiting for another process location) and 17 minutes are spent in operation (eight minutes at the turning center and nine minutes at the mill). Blocking
as a percentage of the average time in system is 74.44 percent. The utilization of the
turning center and the mill are 98.14 percent and 98.25 percent, respectively.
In general, the blocking time as a percentage of the time in system increases as
the utilization of the processing locations increases. To reduce blocking in the machine shop, let us install a second mill. In the location table, change the number of
units of mill to 2. The entity activity statistics from the resulting output report are
shown in Figure L4.43. As expected, the blocking time has been reduced to zero.

L4.7 Exercises
1. Run the Tube Distribution Supply Chain example model (logistics.mod)
from the demos subdirectory for 40 hours. What are the various entities
modeled in this example? What are the various operations and processes
modeled in this example? Look at the results and nd
a. The percentage utilization of the locations Mill and the Process
Grades Threads.
b. The capacities of Inventory, and Inventory 26; the maximum
contents of Inventory and Inventory 26.

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c. The idle time percentage of the location Mill.

d. The percentage utilization of the resources Transport 15 and Fork
Lift 16.
e. What are the various states (in percentages) of the location Process
Grades Threads?
Run the Tube Distribution Supply Chain example model (logistics.mod)
for 40 hours.
a. What are the utilizations of the ve transport resources? Is anyone
overutilized?
b. How well utilized are the six fork trucks? Can we reduce the eet of
fork trucks without much loss in the level of service?
Run the Warehouse model (deaerco.mod) from the demos subdirectory
for 100 hours. Run only Scenario 1. Go into the Simulation Options
menu and change the Run Hours from 10 to 100.
a. What are the average value of inventory of Inventory Aisle 112?
b. What are the averages for Time to Fill, Box, and Check?
c. What is the Average Time in System?
d. What are the cost of customer order, receiving order, and the sum
total of cost per order?
e. What are the percentage idle times for Checker 1 and Checker 2?
f. What are the utilizations of Boxers 14 and the average utilization of
all the Boxers?
Run the Aircraft Fuselage Mating example model (assembly.mod) from
the Student subdirectory for 80 hours. Answer the following questions:
a. What are the utilizations of the Drill and the Cutter?
b. What percentage of time were the Paint, Assembly Jig Q, and
KittingQ fully occupied?
c. What is the percentage utilization of the Crane?
d. What is the average time a Fuselage spends in the system?
Run the Book Storage (Booksmod.mod) example model from the
Student subdirectory for eight hours. Answer the following questions.
a. What are the utilizations of the forklift (JACK) and the material
handler (MTHDLR)?
b. What is the average time spent in the system by order A, order B,
order C, and order D?
c. What is the percentage of time the orders are waiting for a resource?
Which resource? What if any are the problems? What can you suggest
to improve the situation?
For the example in Section L4.1 (Fantastic Dan), run the simulation
model for a whole year (250 days, eight hours each day) and answer the
following questions:
a. On average, how many customers does Dan serve each day?
b. What is the average number of customers waiting to get a haircut?
What is the maximum?

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c. What is the average time spent by a customer in the salon?

d. How busy is Dan on average? Is this satisfactory?
e. How many chairs should Dan have for customers waiting for a haircut?
If Dan could take exactly nine minutes for each haircut, will it improve
the situation? Rework Question 1 and answer parts a through e.
For the example in Section L4.1, what will happen if we change the
capacity of the location Waiting_for_Barber to one? Is this change
desirable? What are the implications? Make the appropriate change in
the model and show the results to support your argument.
For the Bank of USA ATM example in Section L4.2, run the model with
and without any variability in the customer interarrival time and service
time. Compare the average time in system and the average time in queue
based on 1000 hours of simulation runs.
For the SoCal Machine Shop in Section L4.6 assume the length of the
Incoming_Q is 30 feet, and the speed of the arriving Gear_Blanks is
10 feet/minute. Delete the statement Move for 0 in the operation logic
of the Incoming_Q. Change the queuing rule to FIFO. Answer the
following questions and explain why.
a. What is the average time in operation?
b. What is the average time waiting for resource?
c. What is the average time blocked?
In the Arrivals element (table), what are the differences between
Occurrences and Frequency? What is the signicance of the Qty each
column?
In the Locations element (table), what are the differences between Cap
and Units?
What are the various time units that can be used while developing a
model? Where is this information provided? If one forgets to specify the
time unit in the model, what time unit is used by ProModel?
The Processing element has two tables that need to be edited. What are
their names and their functions?
When an entity has completed all the processing in the system, what
should we do with it? Where should it be routed?
Differentiate between the following:
a. Entity versus locations.
b. Locations versus resources.
c. Attributes versus variables.
d. Save versus Save As.
e. Move, Move For, Move On, Move With.
f. Wait versus Wait Until.
g. Stop versus End.
Increased utilization of processing locations or resources lead to
increased levels of blocking in the system. Explain why.

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PROMODELS OUTPUT
MODULE

I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another

step forward.
Thomas Edison

In this chapter we discuss ProModels Output Program Manager in detail with

examples.

L5.1 The Output Program Manager

The ProModel Output Program Manager, also called Output Viewer 3DR (threedimensional report), can be run either as a stand-alone application by choosing
View Statistics from the Output menu or from within the Windows Program Manager by choosing Results Viewer. This allows us to view ProModel output les at
any time, with or without starting ProModel. The Results Viewer has two
options3DR, and Classic. The default output viewer can be selected in the
Tools Options menu in ProModel. The Classic output viewer uses a proprietary binary le format that works faster. However, the 3DR output viewer
produces much nicer output. Some examples of the output view in the 3DR mode
are shown in Figures L4.13, L4.26, and L4.33. The output viewer simplies the
process of generating and charting graphs and reports and analyzing the output
data. We encourage you to use the ProModels online help to learn more about the
Output Program Manager.
The File menu (Figure L5.1) allows the user to open one or more output databases for review, analysis, and comparison. It also allows the user to export raw
data to a common delimited format (*.CSV), to keep reports and graphs for all
subsequent runs, to print, and to set up printing.
437

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FIGURE L5.1
File menu in the 3DR
Output Viewer.

FIGURE L5.2
Output menu options
in ProModel.

FIGURE L5.3
View menu in the 3DR
Output Viewer.

The Output menu in ProModel (Figure L5.2) has the following options:
View Statistics: Allows the user to view the statistics generated from
running a simulation model. Selecting this option loads the Output Viewer
3DR.
View Trace: Allows the user to view the trace le generated from running
a simulation model. Sending a trace listing to a text le during runtime
generates a trace. Please refer to Lab 8, section L8.2, for a more complete
discussion of tracing a simulation model.
The View menu (Figure L5.3) allows the user to select the way in which output data, charts, and graphs can be displayed. The View menu has the following
options:
a. Report
b. Category Chart
c. State Chart

d. Histogram
e. Time Plot
f. Sheet Properties

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FIGURE L5.4
3DR Report view of the results of the ATM System in Lab3.

L5.1.1 Report View

The report view (Figure L5.4) of the Output Viewer 3DR is similar to the Classic
view of the output report. A major difference is that there are tabs for various parts
of the report as follows:
a. General
i. Entity Activity
b. Locations
j. Entity States
c. Location States Multiunit
k. Variables
d. Location States Single/Tank
l. Location Costing
e. Resources
m. Resource Costing
f. Resource States
n. Entity Costing
g. Node Entries
o. Logs
h. Failed Arrivals

L5.1.2 Category Chart

The category chart (Figure L5.5) is a graphical representation of the status of the
category of data selected at the end of the simulation run. Here are some of the
data categories available for charting:
a. Entity Activity
d. Locations
i. Total exits
i. Total entries
ii. Current quantity in
ii. Average contents
system
e. Logs
iii. Average time in system
i. Minimum value
(Figure L5.6)
ii. Average value
b. Location States Multi
f. Resource States
i. Pct. empty
i. Pct. idle
ii. Pct. full
ii. Pct. in use
c. Location States Single
g. Variables
i. Pct. idle
i. Minimum value
ii. Pct. waiting
ii. Average value
iii. Pct. blocked
iii. Maximum contents

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FIGURE L5.5
Categories of charts
available in the
Category Chart
Selection menu.

FIGURE L5.6
An example of a category chart presenting entity average time in system.

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FIGURE L5.7
Categories of charts
available in the State
Chart Selection menu.

L5.1.3 State Chart

In ProModel the state and utilization graphs produce an averaged state summary
for multiple replications or batches. By selecting State or Utilization Summary, it
is possible to select the type of graph in the dialog shown in Figure L5.7.
The Output Program allows you to create seven different types of state and
utilization graphs to illustrate the percentage of time that locations and resources
were in a particular state: operation, waiting, blocked, down, or the like.
Location Utilization: Location Utilization graphs show the percentage of
time that each location in the system was utilized. ProModel allows you
to see this information for all of the locations in the system at once
(Figure L5.8).
Location State: Single and Multiple Capacity Location State graphs show
the percentage of time that each location in the system was in a particular
state, such as idle, in operation, waiting for arrivals, blocked or down
(Figure L5.9). ProModel shows this information for all of the locations
in the system at once. For further enhancement of a particular location
you can create a pie chart. To create a pie chart from a state graph double
click on one of the state bars (alternatively you can right-click on a bar
and select Create Pie Chart from the pop-up menu) for that location
(Figure L5.10).

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FIGURE L5.8
State chart representation of location utilization.

FIGURE L5.9
A state chart
representation of all
the locations states.

Multiple Capacity Location Downtime: Multiple Capacity Location Downtime graphs show the percentage of time that each multicapacity location in
the system was down. A pie chart can be created for any one of the locations.
Resource Blocked in Travel: Resource Blocked in Travel graphs show the
percentage of time a resource was blocked. A resource is blocked if it is
unable to move to a destination because the next path node along the
route of travel was blocked (occupied).

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FIGURE L5.10
A pie chart
representing the states
of the location Inspect.

Resource Utilization: Resource Utilization graphs show the percentage of

time that each resource in the system was utilized. A resource is utilized
when it is transporting or processing an entity or servicing a location or
other resource. ProModel shows this information for all resources in the
system at once.
Resource State: The following information is contained in the report for
each resource (Figure L5.11).
Resource Name
Scheduled Hours

Pct. in Use

Pct. Travel to Use

Pct. Travel to Park

Pct. Idle
Pct. Down

The name of the resource.

The total number of hours the resource was
scheduled to be available, which excludes off-shift
time and scheduled downtime.
The percentage of time the resource spent
transporting or processing an entity, or servicing a
location or other resource.
The percentage of time the resource spent traveling
to a location or resource to transport, process, or
service an entity, location, or resource. This also
includes pickup and deposit time.
The percentage of time the resource spent traveling
to a path node to park.
The percentage of time the resource was available
but not in use.
The percentage of time the resource was unavailable
due to unscheduled downtime.

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FIGURE L5.11
State chart for the Cell Operator resource states.

FIGURE L5.12
State chart representation of entity states.

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Entity State: The following information is given for each entity type
(Figure L5.12)
Pct. in Move Logic

The percentage of time the entity spent traveling to

the next location, either in or out of a queue or with
a resource.

Pct. Wait for Res

The percentage of time the entity spent waiting for

a resource or another entity to join, combine, or
the like.

Pct. in Operation

The percentage of time the entity spent in processing at a location or traveling on a conveyor.

Pct. Blocked

The percentage of time the entity spent waiting for

a freed destination.

L5.1.4 Histogram and Time Plot

Time series statistics can be collected for locations, entities, resources, and variables.
By selecting one of the Time Series menu item choices, one can select the values to
graph and the options to customize the appearance of the graph (Figure L5.13).
Time series histogram (Figure L5.14): Selecting Edit from the Options
menu displays the Graph Options dialog that lets you select time units,
bar width, and other options to modify the look of the graph.
Time plots: Time plots (Figure L5.15) give a different perspective
from histograms. One can track global variables such as total work-inprocess inventory, contents of a queue or location, and total items
produced. Figure L5.15 is a time plot of the status of the work-inprocess inventory over 900 minutes of simulation of the mfg_cost.mod
model in the Demo subdirectory. Figure L5.16 is a time plot of the
contents of the Part_Conveyor over about 515 minutes of simulation of
the pracmod.mod model in the Training subdirectory.
Notice by clicking on the time-plot menu, there are actually three
different types of values that can be plotted over time. One is Timeweighted values in which the values that are plotted are weighted by time.
So if you want to display the contents of a location for each 15-minute
interval of the simulation, it will plot the time-weighted average value for
each 15-minute interval. The other two are Simple Values which takes a
simple average when plotting by time interval, and Counts which plots
the number of times a value changed per time interval.
Export plots/histograms: When you plot one or more model elements
using a plot or histogram, ProModel allows you to export these data to an
Excel spreadsheet. When you export the plot or histogram data, ProModel
creates a new spreadsheet and denes a new layer for each data element.

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FIGURE L5.13
Dialog box for plotting a histogram.

FIGURE L5.14
A time-weighted histogram of the contents of the Bearing Queue.

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FIGURE L5.15
A time series plot of the Bearing Queue contents over time.

FIGURE L5.16
A time series plot of WIP.

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FIGURE L5.17
Sheet Properties menu
in the Output Viewer.

L5.1.5 Sheet Properties

The Sheet Properties menu in the View menu allows the user to customize the
columns in the report view (Figure L5.17). The headings and gridlines can be
turned on and off. The font type, size, and color of the column headings can be
selected here. The time unit of the columns with time values can be selected as
seconds, minutes, hours, days, or weeks.

L5.2 Classic View

The output view in the Classic mode for the example in Section L4.3 is shown in
Figure L5.18. The View menu in the Classic output viewer consists of the following options (Figure L5.19):
a. General Stats: Creates a general summary report. If there are only one
scenario, one replication, and one report period, the report will be
generated automatically.
b. Selected Stats: The Selected Stats report allows you to create a
replication, batch mean, or periodic report with only the specic
statistics and elements you want in the report. The Selected Stats report
is available only if there are multiple replications, periods, or batches.

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FIGURE L5.18
The results of Poly
Furniture Factory
(with Oven) in Classic
view.

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FIGURE L5.19
View menu in the
Classic output viewer.

c. State or Utilization Summary: In ProModel, the state and utilization

graphs produce an averaged state summary for multiple replications or
batches.
d. Time Series Plot/Histogram: In previous versions, time series plots and
histograms were known as throughput, content, value, and duration plots
and histograms. These charts can now be combined on one chart for
improved comparisons. You must specify Time Series statistics for the
desired model element to view this information.
The Options menu in the Classic output viewer allows the user to display the
dialog box for various options pertaining to the current report or graphs. Also, the
most recently viewed reports and graphs can be automatically opened.

L5.2.1 Time Series Plot

The numbers of customers waiting for Barber Dan in Lab 4, Section L4.1, over
the eight-hour simulation period are shown in Figure L5.20 as a time series
plot. The number of customers waiting for a haircut varies between zero and
one for the rst hour. In the second hour, the number of customers waiting
grows to as many as four. After dropping back to zero, the number of customers
waiting grows again to as many as eight. However, it drops down to zero again
toward the end of the day.

L5.2.2 Time Series Histogram

The number of customers waiting for a haircut at Fantastic Dan (Lab 4, Section L4.1) is shown in Figure L5.21 as a histogram. For about 63 percent of the
time (simulation run time) the number of customers waiting varies from zero to
three, and for 20 percent of the time this number varies from three to six. For
about 17 percent of the time the number of customers waiting for haircuts
varies from six to nine.

L5.2.3 Location State Graphs

The utilization of all the locations at the Poly Furniture Factory in Lab 4, Section L4.3, with unit capacity is shown in Figure L5.22. The different location

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FIGURE L5.20
Time series plot of customers waiting for Barber Dan.

FIGURE L5.21
Time series histogram
of customers waiting
for Barber Dan.

states are Operation, Setup, Idle, Waiting, Blocked, and Down. The location states
for the Splitter Saw are shown in Figure L5.23 as a pie graph. The utilization of
multiple capacity locations at Poly Furniture Factory is shown in Figure L5.24.
All the states the entity (Painted_Logs) is in are shown in Figure L5.25 as a state
graph and in Figure L5.26 as a pie chart. The different states are move, wait for resource, and operation.

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FIGURE L5.22
State graphs for the
utilization of single
capacity locations.

FIGURE L5.23
Pie chart for the
utilization of the
Splitter Saw.

FIGURE L5.24
State graphs for the
utilization of multiple
capacity locations.

FIGURE L5.25
Graph of the states
of the entity
Painted_Logs.

II. Labs

Part II

5. ProModels Output
Module

Labs

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FIGURE L5.26
Pie graph of the
states of the entity
Painted_Logs.

L5.3 Exercises
1. Customers arrive at the Lake Gardens post ofce for buying stamps,
mailing letters and packages, and so forth. The interarrival time is
exponentially distributed with a mean of 2 minutes. The time to process
each customer is normally distributed with a mean of 10 minutes and a
standard deviation of 2 minutes.
a. Make a time series plot of the number of customers waiting in line at
the post ofce in a typical eight-hour day.
b. How many postal clerks are needed at the counter so that there are no
more than 15 customers waiting in line at the post ofce at any time?
There is only one line serving all the postal clerks. Change the
number of postal clerks until you nd the optimum number.
2. The Lake Gardens postmaster in Exercise 1 wants to serve his customers
well. She would like to see that the average time spent by a postal
customer at the post ofce is no more than 15 mins. How many postal
clerks should she hire?
3. For the Poly Furniture Factory example in Lab 4, Section L4.3,
a. Make a state graph and a pie graph for the splitter and the lathe.
b. Find the percentage of time the splitter and the lathe are idle.
4. For the Poly Furniture Factory example in Lab 4, Section L4.4,
a. Make histograms of the contents of the oven and the paint booth.
Make sure the bar width is set equal to one. What information can
you gather from these histograms?
b. Plot a pie chart for the various states of the entity Painted_Logs. What
percentage of time the Painted_Logs are in operation?
c. Make a time series plot of the oven and the paint booth contents. How
would you explain these plots?

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Labs

5. For the Bank of USA ATM example in Lab 4, Section L4.2,

a. Plot a pie chart for the various states of the ATM customer.
b. What is the percentage of time the ATM customer is in process (using
the ATM)?
6. Run the Tube Distribution Supply Chain example model (logistcs.mod
from the Demo subdirectory) for 40 hours. What are the various entities
modeled in this example? What are the various operations and processes
modeled in this example?
Look at the results and nd
a. The percentage utilization of the locations Mill and the Process
Grades Threads.
b. The capacities of Inventory and Inventory 26. The maximum
contents of Inventory and Inventory 26.
c. The idle time percent of the location Mill.
d. The percent utilization of the resources Transport 15 and Fork
Lift 16.
e. What are the various states (in percentages) of the location Process
Grades Threads?
7. Run the Warehouse model (deaerco.mod from the Demo subdirectory)
for 100 hours. Run only Scenario 1. Go into the Simulation Options
menu and change the Run Hours from 10 to 100.
a. What are the average values of inventory of Inventory Aisle 112?
b. What is the average Time to Fill, Box, and Check?
c. What is the Average Time in System?
d. What are the cost of customer order, receiving order, and the sum
total of cost per order?
e. What are the percentage idle times for Checker 1 and Checker 2?
f. What are the utilizations of Boxers 14 and the average utilization of
all the Boxers?
8. Run the Aircraft Fuselage Mating example model (assembly.mod from
the Student subdirectory) for 80 hours. Answer the following questions:
a. What are the utilizations of the Drill and the Cutter?
b. What percentage of time were the Paint, Assembly Jig Q, and Kitting Q
fully occupied?
c. What is the percentage utilization of the Crane?
d. What is the average time a Fuselage spends in the system?

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6. Fitting Statistical
Distributions to Input Data

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FITTING STATISTICAL
DISTRIBUTIONS
TO INPUT DATA

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Benjamin Disraeli

Input data drive our simulation models. Input data can be for interarrival times,
material handling times, setup and process times, demand rates, loading and unloading times, and so forth. The determination of what data to use and where to
get the appropriate data is a complicated and time-consuming task. The quality of
data is also very important. We have all heard the clich garbage in, garbage
out. In Chapter 6 we discussed various issues about input data collection and
analysis. We have also described various empirical discrete and continuous distributions and their characteristics. In this lab we describe how ProModel helps in
tting empirical statistical distributions to user input data.

L6.1 An Introduction to Stat::Fit

Stat::Fit is a utility packaged with the ProModel software, which is available from the
opening screen of ProModel (Figure L1.1) and also from the Windows Start Programs menu. The Stat::Fit opening screen is shown in Figure L6.1. Stat::Fit can be
used for analyzing user-input data and tting an appropriate empirical distribution.
The empirical distribution can be either continuous or discrete. If there are enough
data points, say 100 or more, it may be appropriate to t an empirical distribution to
the data using conventional methods. ProModel offers built-in capability to perform
input data analysis with the tool Stat::Fit. Stat::Fit ts probability distributions to
empirical data. It allows comparison among various distribution functions. It performs goodness-of-t tests using chi-square, KolmogorovSmirnov, and Anderson
Darling procedures. It calculates appropriate parameters for distributions. It provides
distribution expressions for use in the simulation model. When the amount of data is
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FIGURE L6.1
Stat::Fit opening
screen.

FIGURE L6.2
Stat::Fit opening menu.

small, the goodness-of-t tests are of little use in selecting one distribution over another because it is inappropriate to t one distribution over another in such a situation.
Also, when conventional techniques have failed to t a distribution, the empirical
distribution is used directly as a user distribution (Chapter 6, Section 6.9).
The opening menu of Stat::Fit is shown in Figure L6.2. Various options are
available in the opening menu:
1. File: File opens a new Stat::Fit project or an existing project or data le.
The File menu is also used to save a project.
2. Edit:
3. Input:
4. Statistics:
5. Fit: The Fit menu provides a Fit Setup dialog and a Distribution Graph
dialog. Other options are also available when a Stat::Fit project is
opened. The Fit Setup dialog lists all the distributions supported by
Stat::Fit and the relevant choices for goodness-of-t tests. At least one
distribution must be chosen before the estimate, test, and graphing
commands become available. The Distribution Graph command uses the
distribution and parameters provided in the Distribution Graph dialog to
create a graph of any analytical distribution supported by Stat::Fit. This
graph is not connected to any input data or document.

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6. Utilities: The Replications command allows the user to calculate the

number of independent data points or replications of an experiment
necessary to provide a given range or condence interval for the estimate
of a parameter. The condence interval is given for the condence level
specied. The default is a 95 percent condence interval. The resulting
number of replications is calculated using the t distribution.
7. View:
8. Window: The Window menu is used to either cascade or tile various
windows opened while working on the Stat::Fit projects.
9. Help:
Figure L6.3 shows the data/document input screen. Figure L6.4 shows the various
data input options available in Stat::Fit. The type of distribution is also specied
FIGURE L6.3
Document input
screen.

FIGURE L6.4
Stat::Fit data input
options.

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Labs

here. The Input Options command can be accessed from the Input menu as well as
the Input Options button on the Speed Bar.

L6.2 An Example Problem

Problem Statement
The time between arrivals of cars at San Dimas Gas Station were collected as
shown in Table L6.1. This information is also saved and available in an Excel worksheet named L6.2_Gas Station Time Between Arrival. Use Stat::Fit to analyze the
data and t an appropriate continuous distribution to the data. Figure L6.5 shows
part of the actual data of times between arrival of cars in minutes. The sample data
have 30 data points. Figure L6.6 shows the histogram of the input data, while
Figure L6.7 shows some of the descriptive statistics generated by Stat::Fit.
TABLE L6.1 Times between Arrival of Cars at San Dimas Gas Station
Number

Times between Arrival, Minutes

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

12.36
5.71
16.79
18.01
5.12
7.69
19.41
8.58
13.42
15.56
10.
18.
16.75
14.13
17.46
10.72
11.53
18.03
13.45
10.54
12.53
8.91
6.78
8.54
11.23
10.1
9.34
6.53
14.35
18.45

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Lab 6

FIGURE L6.5
Times between arrival
of cars at San Dimas
Gas Station.

FIGURE L6.6
Histogram of the times
between arrival data.

6. Fitting Statistical
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FIGURE L6.7
Descriptive statistics
for the input data.

L6.3 Auto::Fit Input Data

Automatic tting of continuous distributions can be performed by clicking on the
Auto::Fit icon or by selecting Fit from the Menu bar and then Auto::Fit from the
Submenu (Figure L6.8).
This command follows the same procedure as discussed in Chapter 6 for
manual tting. Auto::Fit will automatically choose appropriate continuous distributions to t to the input data, calculate Maximum Likelihood Estimates for those
distributions, test the results for Goodness of Fit, and display the distributions in
order of their relative rank. The relative rank is determined by an empirical
method, which uses effective goodness-of-t calculations. While a good rank usually indicates that the tted distribution is a good representation of the input data,
an absolute indication of the goodness of t is also given.
The Auto::Fit dialog allows the number of continuous distributions to be limited by choosing only those distributions with a lower bound or by forcing a lower
bound to a specic value as in Fit Setup. Also, the number of distributions will be
limited if the skewness of the input data is negative; many continuous distributions
with lower bounds do not have good parameter estimates in this situation.
The acceptance of t usually reects the results of the goodness-of-t tests at
the level of signicance chosen by the user. However, the acceptance may be
modied if the tted distribution would generate signicantly more data points in
the tails of the distribution than are indicated by the input data.
The Auto::Fit function forces the setup of the document so that only continuous distributions will be used. Figure L6.9 shows various continuous distributions
tted to the input data of the San Dimas Gas Station (Section L6.2) and their

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FIGURE L6.8
The Auto::Fit
submenu.

FIGURE L6.9
Various distributions tted to the input data.

rank in terms of the amount of t. Both the KolmogorovSmirnov and the

AndersonDarling goodness-of-t tests will be performed on the input data as
shown in Figure L6.10. The Maximum Likelihood Estimates will be used with an
accuracy of at least 0.00003. The actual data and the tted uniform distribution
are compared and shown in Figure L6.11.

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FIGURE L6.10
Goodness-of-t tests
performed on the input
data.

FIGURE L6.11
Comparison of actual data and tted uniform distribution.

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Fitting Statistical Distributions to Input Data

Because the Auto::Fit function requires a specic setup, the Auto::Fit view
can be printed only as the active window or part of the active document, not as
part of a report. The Auto::Fit function will not t discrete distributions. The manual method, previously described, should be used instead.

L6.4 Exercises
1. Consider the operation of a fast-food restaurant where customers arrive
for ordering lunch. The following is a log of the time (minutes) between
arrivals of 40 successive customers. Use Stat::Fit to analyze the data and
t an appropriate continuous distribution. What are the parameters of this
distribution?
11
9
12
8
11

11
13
12
8
10

12
14
7
17
16

8
9
13
15
10

15
14
12
10
11

14
9
16
7
12

15
13
7
16
14

13
7
10
11
15

2. The servers at the restaurant in Question 1 took the following time

(minutes) to serve food to these 40 customers. Use Stat::Fit to analyze
the data and t an appropriate continuous distribution. What are the
parameters of this distribution?
11
9
12
10
11

11
13
12
8
10

12
14
11
17
13

8
10
13
12
10

15
14
12
10
11

14
9
16
7
12

15
13
11
13
14

13
12
10
11
15

3. The following are the numbers of incoming calls (each hour for 80
successive hours) to a call center set up for serving customers of a
certain Internet service provider. Use Stat::Fit to analyze the data and
t an appropriate discrete distribution. What are the parameters of this
distribution?
12
9
12
10
11
9
12
10
11
10

12
13
12
8
11
13
12
8
10
8

11
14
11
17
12
14
11
17
13
17

13
10
13
12
8
10
13
12
10
12

12
14
12
10
15
14
12
10
11
10

16
9
16
7
14
9
16
7
12
7

11
13
11
13
15
13
11
13
14
13

10
12
10
11
13
12
10
11
15
11

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4. Observations were taken on the times to serve online customers at a

stockbrokers site (STOCK.com) on the Internet. The times (in seconds)
are shown here, sorted in ascending order. Use Stat::Fit and t an
appropriate distribution to the data. What are the parameters of this
distribution?
1.39
3.59
7.11
8.34
11.14
11.97
13.53
16.87
17.63
19.44

21.47
22.55
28.04
28.97
29.05
35.26
37.65
38.21
38.32
39.17

39.49
39.99
41.42
42.53
47.08
51.53
55.11
55.75
55.85
56.96

58.78
60.61
63.38
65.99
66.00
73.55
73.81
74.14
79.79
81.66

82.10
83.52
85.90
88.04
88.40
88.47
92.63
93.11
93.74
98.82

5. Forty observations for a bagging operation was shown in Chapter 6,

Table 6.5. Use Stat::Fit to nd out what distribution best ts the data.
Compare your results with the results obtained in Chapter 6 (Suggestion:
In Chapter 6 ve equal probability cells were used for the chi-square
goodness of t test. Use same number of cells in Stat::Fit to match the
results).

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7. Basic Modeling
Concepts

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BASIC MODELING
CONCEPTS

Imagination is more important than knowledge.

Albert Einstein

In this chapter we continue to describe other basic features and modeling concepts
of ProModel. In Section L7.1 we show an application with multiple locations and
multiple entity types. Section L7.2 describes modeling of multiple parallel locations. Section L7.3 shows various routing rules. In Section L7.4 we introduce the
concept of variables. Section L7.5 introduces the inspection process, tracking of defects, and rework. In Section L7.6 we show how to assemble nonidentical entities
and produce assemblies. In Section L7.7 we show the process of making temporary
entities through the process of loading and subsequent unloading. Section L7.8
describes how entities can be accumulated before processing. Section L7.9 shows
the splitting of one entity into multiple entities. In Section L7.10 we introduce
various decision statements with appropriate examples. Finally, in Section L7.11
we show you how to model a system that shuts down periodically.

L7.1 Multiple Locations, Multiple Entity Types

Problem Statement
In one department at Pomona Electronics, three different printed circuit boards
are assembled. Each board is routed through three assembly areas. The routing
order is different for each of the boards. Further, the time to assemble a board depends on the board type and the operation. The simulation model is intended to
determine the time to complete 500 boards of each type. The assembly time for
each board is exponentially distributed with the mean times shown in Table L7.1.
Dene three locations (Area1, Area2, and Area3) where assembly work is
done and another location, PCB_Receive, where all the printed circuit boards
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FIGURE L7.1
The three processing locations and the receiving dock.

FIGURE L7.2
Layout of Pomona
Electronics.

TABLE L7.1 Assembly Times for the Printed Circuit Boards

Printed Circuit Board 1

Printed Circuit Board 2

Printed Circuit Board 3

Area

Mean Time

Area

Mean Time

Area

Mean Time

1
2
3

10
12
15

2
1
3

5
6
8

3
2
1

12
14
15

arrive (Figure L7.1). Assume each of the assembly areas has innite capacity.
The layout of Pomona Electronics is shown in Figure L7.2. Note that we used
Background Graphics Behind Grid, from the Build menu, to add the Pomona
Electronics logo on the simulation model layout. Add the robot graphics (or something appropriate). Dene three entities as PCB1, PCB2, and PCB3 (Figure L7.3).

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FIGURE L7.3
The three types of circuit boards.

FIGURE L7.4
The arrival process for all circuit boards.

FIGURE L7.5
Processes and routings for Pomona Electronics.

Dene the arrival process (Figure L7.4). Assume all 1500 boards are in stock
when the assembly operations begin. The process and routing tables are developed as in Figure L7.5.
Run the simulation model. Note that the whole batch of 1500 printed circuit
boards (500 of each) takes a total of 2 hours and 27 minutes to be processed.

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L7.2 Multiple Parallel Identical Locations

Location: Capacity versus Units
Each location in a model has associated with it some nite capacity. The capacity
of a location refers to the maximum number of entities that the location can hold
at any time. The reserved word INF or INFINITE sets the capacity to the maximum
allowable value. The default capacity for a location is one unless a counter, conveyor, or queue is the rst graphic assigned to it. The default capacity in that case
is INFINITE.
The number of units of a location refers to the number of identical, interchangeable, and parallel locations referenced as a single location for routing and
processing. A multiunit location eliminates the need to create multiple locations
and multiple processes for locations that do the same thing. While routings to and
from each unit are the same, each unit may have unique downtimes.
A multiunit location is created by entering a number greater than one as the
number of units for a normal location. A corresponding number of locations will
appear below the original location with a numeric extension appended to each
copied location name designating the unit number of that location. The original
location record becomes the prototype for the unit records. Each unit will inherit
the prototypes characteristics unless the individual units characteristics are
changed. Downtimes, graphic symbols, and, in the case of multicapacity locations, capacities may be assigned to each unit. As the number of units of a location
is changed, the individual unit locations are automatically created or destroyed
accordingly.
The following three situations describe the advantages and disadvantages of
modeling multicapacity versus multiunit locations.
Multicapacity locations. Locations are modeled as a single unit with
multicapacity (Figure L7.6). All elements of the location perform
identical operations. When one element of the location is unavailable due
to downtime, all elements are unavailable. Only clock-based downtimes
are allowed.
Multiunit locations. Locations are modeled as single capacity but multiple
units (Figure L7.7). These are locations consisting of two or more parallel
and interchangeable processing units. Each unit shares the same sources of
input and the same destinations for output, but each may have independent
operating characteristics. This method provides more exibility in the
assignment of downtimes and in selecting an individual unit to process a
particular entity.
Multiple, single-capacity locations. Locations are modeled as individual
and single capacity (Figure L7.8). Usually noninterchangeable locations
are modeled as such. By modeling as individual locations, we gain the
exibility of modeling separate downtimes for each element. In addition,
we now have complete exibility to determine which element will
process a particular entity.

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FIGURE L7.6
Single unit of multicapacity location.

FIGURE L7.7
Multiple units of single-capacity locations.

FIGURE L7.8
Multiple single-capacity locations.

Problem Statement
At San Dimas Electronics, jobs arrive at three identical inspection machines according to an exponential distribution with a mean interarrival time of 12 minutes.
The rst available machine is selected. Processing on any of the parallel machines
is normally distributed with a mean of 10 minutes and a standard deviation of
3 minutes. Upon completion, all jobs are sent to a fourth machine, where they
queue up for date stamping and packing for shipment; this takes ve minutes normally distributed with a standard deviation of two minutes. Completed jobs then
leave the system. Run the simulation for one month (20 days, eight hours each).
Calculate the average utilization of the four machines. Also, how many jobs are
processed by each of the four machines?
Dene a location called Inspect. Change its units to 3. Three identical parallel
locationsthat is, Inspect.1, Inspect.2, and Inspect.3are thus created. Also, dene a location for all the raw material to arrive (Material_Receiving). Change the
capacity of this location to innite. Dene a location for Packing (Figure L7.9).
Select Background Graphics from the Build menu. Make up a label San Dimas
Electronics. Add a rectangular border. Change the font and color appropriately.

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FIGURE L7.9
The locations and the layout of San Dimas Electronics.

FIGURE L7.10
Arrivals of PCB at San Dimas Electronics.

Dene an entity called PCB. Dene the frequency of arrival of the entity PCB
as exponential with a mean interarrival time of 12 minutes (Figure L7.10). Dene
the process and routing at San Dimas Electronics as shown in Figure L7.11.
In the Simulation menu select Options. Enter 160 in the Run Hours box. Run
the simulation model. The average utilization and the number of jobs processed at
the four locations are given in Table L7.2.

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FIGURE L7.11
Process and routing tables at San Dimas Electronics.

TABLE L7.2 Summary of Results of the Simulation Run

Inspector1
Inspector2
Inspector3
Packing

Average Utilization

Number of Jobs Processed

49.5
29.7
15.9
41.5

437
246
117
798

L7.3 Routing Rules

Routing rules are used in selecting among competing downstream processes for
routing an entity. Sometimes customers prefer one downstream resource to another.
The selection among several competing resources may follow one of these rules:
FIRST available: Select the rst location that has available capacity.
MOST available: Select the location that has the most available capacity.
By TURN: Rotate the selection among two or more available locations.
RANDOM: Select randomly among two or more available locations.
If JOIN request: Select the location that satises a JOIN request (see the
JOIN statement).
If LOAD request: Select the location that satises a LOAD request (see the
LOAD statement).
If SEND request: Select the location that satises a SEND request (see the
SEND statement).
Longest: Select the location that has been unoccupied the longest.
Unoccupied until FULL: Continue to select the same location until it
is full.
If EMPTY: Select the location only when empty and continue to select until
it is full.

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Probabilistic: Select based on the probability specied (such as .75).

User condition: Select the location that satises the Boolean condition
specied by the user (such as AT2>5). Conditions may include any
numeric expression except for location attributes, resource-specic
functions, and downtime-specic functions.
CONTINUE: Continue at the same location for additional operations.
CONTINUE is allowed only for blocks with a single routing.
As ALTERNATE to: Select as an alternate if available and if none of the
above rules can be satised.
As BACKUP: Select as a backup if the location of the rst preference is down.
DEPENDENT: Select only if the immediately preceding routing was processed.
If only one routing is dened for a routing block, use the rst available, join, load,
send, if empty, or continue rule. The most available, by turn, random, longest unoccupied, until full, probabilistic, and user condition rules are generally only useful when a block has multiple routings.
Problem Statement
Amar, Akbar, and Anthony are three tellers in the local branch of Bank of India.
Figure L7.12 shows the layout of the bank. Assume that customers arrive at the
bank according to a uniform distribution (mean of ve minutes and half-width of
four minutes). All the tellers service the customers according to another uniform
FIGURE L7.12
Layout of the Bank of
India.

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FIGURE L7.13
Locations at the Bank of India.

FIGURE L7.14
Queue menu.

distribution (mean of 10 minutes and half-width of 6 minutes). However, the customers prefer Amar to Akbar, and Akbar over Anthony. If the teller of choice is busy,
the customers choose the rst available teller. Simulate the system for 200 customer
service completions. Estimate the tellers utilization (percentage of time busy).
The locations are dened as Akbar, Anthony, Amar, Teller_Q, and Enter as
shown in Figure L7.13. The Teller_Q is exactly 100 feet long. Note that we have
checked the queue option in the Conveyor/Queue menu (Figure L7.14). The

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FIGURE L7.15
Customer arrival at the Bank of India.

FIGURE L7.16
Process and routing tables at the Bank of India.

TABLE L7.3 Utilization of Tellers at the Bank of India

% Utilization
Tellers

Selection in Order
of Preference

Selection by
Turn

Amar
Akbar
Anthony

79
64.7
46.9

63.9
65.1
61.5

customer arrival process is shown in Figure L7.15. The processes and routings are
shown in Figure L7.16. Note that the customers go to the tellers Amar, Akbar, and
Anthony in the order they are specied in the routing table.
The results of the simulation model are shown in Table L7.3. Note that Amar,
being the favorite teller, is much more busy than Akbar and Anthony.
If the customers were routed to the three tellers in turn (selected in rotation),
the process and routing tables would be as in Figure L7.17. Note that By Turn was
selected from the Rule menu in the routing table. These results of the simulation
model are also shown in Table L7.3. Note that Amar, Akbar, and Anthony are now
utilized almost equally.

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FIGURE L7.17
Process and routing tables for tellers selected by turn.

L7.4 Variables
Variables are placeholders for either real or integer numbers that may change
during the simulation. Variables are typically used for making decisions or for
gathering data. Variables can be dened to track statistics and monitor other
activities during a simulation run. This is useful when the built-in statistics dont
capture a particular performance metric of interest. Variables might be dened
to track

The number of customers waiting in multiple queues.

Customer waiting time during a specic time period.
Customer time in the bank.
Work-in-process inventory.
Production quantity.

In ProModel two types of variables are usedlocal variables and global variables.
Global variables are accessible from anywhere in the model and at any
time. Global variables are dened through the Variables(global) editor
in the Build menu. The value of a global variable may be displayed
dynamically during the simulation. It can also be changed interactively.
Global variables can be referenced anywhere a numeric expression is
valid.
Local variables are temporary variables that are used for quick
convenience when a variable is needed only within a particular operation
(in the Process table), move logic (in the Routing table), logic (in the
Arrivals, Resources, or Subroutine tables), the initialization or termination
logic (in the General Information dialog box), and so forth. Local
variables are available only within the logic in which they are declared

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and are not dened in the Variables edit table. They are created for each
entity, downtime occurrence, or the like executing a particular section of
logic. A new local variable is created for each entity that encounters an
INT or REAL statement. It exists only while the entity processes the logic
that declared the local variable. Local variables may be passed to
subroutines as parameters and are available to macros.
A local variable must be declared before it is used. To declare a local variable,
use the following syntax:
INT or REAL <name1>{= expression}, <name2>{= expression}

Examples:
INT HourOfDay, WIP
REAL const1 = 2.5, const2 = 5.0
INT Init_Inventory = 170

In Section L7.11 we show you how to use a local variable in your simulation
model logic.
Problem StatementTracking Work in Process and Production
In the Poly Casting Inc. machine shop, raw castings arrive in batches of four
every hour. From the raw material store they are sent to the mill, where they undergo a milling operation that takes an average of three minutes with a standard
deviation of one minute (normally distributed). The milled castings go to the
grinder, where they are ground for a duration that is uniformly distributed (minimum four minutes and maximum six minutes) or U(5,1). After grinding, the
ground pieces go to the nished parts store. Run the simulation for 100 hours.
Track the work-in-process inventory and the production quantity.
The complete simulation model layout is shown in Figure L7.18. The locations are dened as Receiving_Dock, Mill, Grinder, and Finish_Parts_Store
(Figure L7.19). Castings (entity) are dened to arrive in batches of four (Qty
each) every 60 minutes (Frequency) as shown in Figure L7.20. The processes and
routings are shown in Figure L7.21.
Dene a variable in your model to track the work-in-process inventory (WIP)
of parts in the machine shop. Also dene another variable to track the production
(PROD_QTY) of nished parts (Figure L7.22). Note that both of these are integer
type variables.
In the process table, add the following operation statement in the Receiving
location (Figure L7.21).
WIP = WIP + 1

Add the following operation statements in the outgoing Finish_Parts_Store location (Figure L7.21):
WIP = WIP - 1
PROD_QTY = PROD_QTY + 1

Alternatively, these three statements could be written as INC

INC PROD_QTY.

WIP, DEC WIP,

and

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FIGURE L7.18
Layout of Poly Casting Inc.

FIGURE L7.19
Locations at Poly Casting Inc.

FIGURE L7.20
Arrival of castings at Poly Casting Inc.

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FIGURE L7.21
Processes and routings for the Poly Casting Inc. model.

FIGURE L7.22
Variables for the Poly Casting Inc. model.

L7.5 Uncertainty in RoutingTrack Defects and Rework

Sometimes an entity needs to be routed to a destination from a list of available locations on a probabilistic basis. The location to which a specic entity is routed
remains uncertain. A certain percentage of entities will be routed to a specic destination. The total of these percentages, however, should be 100 percent.
After processing is completed, a workpiece is frequently inspected and
checked for correctness. If found to be good, the workpiece moves on to the next
operation. If found to be defective, it is either scrapped or reworked. For rework,
the workpiece is sent to one of the earlier operations. The inspection process is
carried out either on all workpieces or on a sample of workpieces.
Problem Statement
Poly Casting Inc. in Section L7.4 decides to add an inspection station at the end
of the machine shop, after the grinding operation. After inspection, 30 percent of
the widgets are sent back to the mill for rework, 10 percent are sent back to the
grinder for rework, and 5 percent are scrapped. The balance, 55 percent, pass
inspection and go on to the nished parts store. The inspection takes a time that
is triangularly distributed with a minimum of 4, mode of 5, and maximum of
6 minutes. The process times for rework are the same as those for new jobs. Track
the amount of rework at the mill and the grinder. Also track the amount of
scrapped parts and nished production. Run the simulation for 100 hours.
The locations are dened as mill, grinder, inspection, nish parts store, receiving dock, scrap parts, mill rework, and grind rework as shown in Figure L7.23.

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FIGURE L7.23
Simulation model layout for Poly Castings Inc. with inspection.

FIGURE L7.24
Variables for the Poly Castings Inc. with inspection model.

The last four locations are dened with innite capacity. The arrivals of
castings are dened in batches of four every hour. Next we dene ve variables (Figure L7.24) to track work in process, production quantity, mill rework,
grind rework, and scrap quantity. The processes and routings are dened as in
Figure L7.25.

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FIGURE L7.25
Processes and routings for the Poly Castings Inc. with inspection model.

L7.6 Batching Multiple Entities of Similar Type

L7.6.1 Temporary BatchingGROUP/UNGROUP
Frequently we encounter a situation where widgets are batched and processed together. After processing is over, the workpieces are unbatched again. For example, an autoclave or an oven is red with a batch of jobs. After heating, curing, or
bonding is done, the batch of jobs is separated and the individual jobs go their
way. The individual pieces retain their properties during the batching and processing activities.
For such temporary batching, use the GROUP statement. For unbatching, use the
UNGROUP statement. One may group entities by individual entity type by dening a
process record for the type to group, or group them irrespective of entity type by
dening an ALL process record. ProModel maintains all of the characteristics and
properties of the individual entities of the grouped entities and allows them to remain with the individual entities after an UNGROUP command. Note that the capacity
of the location where Grouping occurs must be at least as large as the group size.
Problem Statement
El Segundo Composites receive orders for aerospace parts that go through cutting, lay-up, and bonding operations. Cutting and lay-up take uniform (20,5) minutes and uniform (30,10) minutes. The bonding is done in an autoclave in batches
of ve parts and takes uniform (100,10) minutes. After bonding, the parts go to the
shipment clerk individually. The shipment clerk takes normal (20,5) minutes to
get each part ready for shipment. The orders are received on average once every
60 minutes, exponentially distributed. The time to transport these parts from one
machine to another takes on average 15 minutes. Figure out the amount of WIP in
the shop. Simulate for six months or 1000 working hours.

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The locations are dened as Ply_Cutting, LayUp, Oven, Order_Q,

Ship_Clerk, and Ship_Q. The layout of El Segundo Composites is shown in
Figure L7.26. The processes and the routings are shown in Figure L7.27. A variable WIP is dened to keep track of the amount of work in process in the shop.
The WIP value history over the simulated 1000 hours is shown in Figure L7.28.
Note that the average WIP in the shop has been around 7, although on rare occasions the WIP has been as much as 23.

FIGURE L7.26
Layout of El Segundo Composites.

FIGURE L7.27
Process and routing tables for El Segundo Composites.

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FIGURE L7.28
Work in process value history.

L7.6.2 Permanent BatchingCOMBINE

In some situations, multiple entities of the same type or different types are
batched together permanently. After batching, a single batch entity is formed,
alternatively with a different name. In such permanent batching, the characteristics of the individual entities are lost; that is, the individual entities cannot be
ungrouped later.
When dening the location, the capacity of the location where you use the
COMBINE statement should be at least as large as the combined quantity.
Problem Statement
At the Garden Reach plant of the Calcutta Tea Company, the lling machine lls
empty cans with 50 bags of the best Darjeeling tea at the rate of one can every
10.5 seconds uniformly distributed. The tea bags arrive to the packing line with
a mean interarrival time of one second exponentially distributed. The lled cans
go to a packing machine where 20 cans are combined into one box. The packing
operation takes uniform (2010) seconds. The boxes are shipped to the dealers.
This facility runs 24 hours a day. Simulate for one day.
The various locations at the Calcutta Tea Company plant are shown in Figure L7.29. Three entities (Teabag, Can, and Box) are dened next. Teabags are
dened to arrive with exponential interarrival time with a mean of one second.
The processes and routing logic are shown in Figure L7.30. The layout of the
Calcutta Tea Company plant is shown in Figure L7.31.

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FIGURE L7.29
Locations at the Calcutta Tea Company.

FIGURE L7.30
Process and routing tables at the Calcutta Tea Company.

FIGURE L7.31
Layout of the Calcutta
Tea Company.

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L7.7 Attaching One or More Entities to Another Entity

L7.7.1 Permanent AttachmentJOIN
Sometimes one or more entities are attached permanently to another entity, as in
an assembly operation. The assembly process is a permanent bonding: the assembled entities lose their separate identities and properties. The individual entities
that are attached cannot be separated again.
The join process is used to permanently assemble two or more individual entities together. For every JOIN statement, there must be a corresponding If Join
Request rule. Joining is a two-step process:
1. Use the JOIN statement at the designated assembly location.
2. Use the join routing rule for all joining entities.
One of the joining entities, designated as the base entity, issues the JOIN statement. All other joining entities must travel to the assembly location on an If Join
Request routing rule.
Problem Statement
At Shipping Boxes Unlimited computer monitors arrive at Monitor_Q at the rate
of one every 15 minutes (exponential) and are moved to the packing table. Boxes
arrive at Box_Q, at an average rate of one every 15 minutes (exponential) and are
also moved to the packing table. At the packing table, monitors are packed into
boxes. The packing operation takes normal (5,1) minutes. Packed boxes are sent
to the inspector (Inspect_Q). The inspector checks the contents of the box and
tallies with the packing slip. Inspection takes normal (4,2) minutes. After inspection, the boxes are loaded into trucks at the shipping dock (Shipping_Q). The
loading takes uniform (5,1) minutes. Simulate for 100 hours. Track the number of
monitors shipped and the WIP of monitors in the system.
The locations at Shipping Boxes Unlimited are dened as Monitor_Q,
Box_Q, Shipping_Q, Inspect_Q, Shipping_Dock, Packing_Table, and Inspector.
All the queue locations are dened with a capacity of innity. Three entities
(Monitor, Empty Box, and Full_Box) are dened next. The arrivals of monitors
and empty boxes are shown in Figure L7.32. The processes and routings
are shown in Figure L7.33. A snapshot of the simulation model is captured in

FIGURE L7.32
Arrival of monitors and empty boxes at Shipping Boxes Unlimited.

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FIGURE L7.33
Processes and routings for Shipping Boxes Unlimited.

FIGURE L7.34
A snapshot of the simulation model for Shipping Boxes Unlimited.

Figure L7.34. The plot of the work-in-process inventory for the 100 hours of simulation run is shown in Figure L7.35. Note that the work-in-process inventory
rises to as much as 12 in the beginning. However, after achieving steady state, the
WIP inventory stays mostly within the range of 0 to 3.

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FIGURE L7.35
Time-weighted plot of the WIP inventory at Shipping Boxes Unlimited.

L7.7.2 Temporary AttachmentLOAD/UNLOAD

Sometimes one or more entities are attached to another entity temporarily,
processed or moved together, and detached later in the system. In ProModel, we
use the LOAD and UNLOAD statements to achieve that goal. The properties of the individual attached entities are preserved. This of course requires more memory
space and hence should be used only when necessary.
Problem Statement
For the Shipping Boxes Unlimited problem in Section L7.7.1, assume the inspector places (loads) a packed box on an empty pallet. The loading takes anywhere from two to four minutes, uniformly distributed. The loaded pallet is sent
to the shipping dock and waits in the shipping queue. At the shipping dock, the
packed boxes are unloaded from the pallet. The unloading time is also uniformly
distributed; U(3,1) min. The boxes go onto a waiting truck. The empty pallet is returned, via the pallet queue, to the inspector. One pallet is used and recirculated in
the system. Simulate for 100 hours. Track the number of monitors shipped and the
WIP of monitors.
The locations dened in this model are Monitor_Q, Box_Q, Inspect_Q, Shipping_Q, Pallet_Q, Packing_Table, Inspector, and Shipping_Dock (Figure L7.36).
All queue locations have innite capacity. The layout of Shipping Boxes Unlimited is shown in Figure L7.37. Five entities are dened: Monitor, Box,
Empty_Box, Empty_Pallet, and Full_Pallet as shown in Figure L7.38. The

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FIGURE L7.36
The locations at Shipping Boxes Unlimited.

FIGURE L7.37
Boxes loaded on
pallets at Shipping
Boxes Unlimited.

arrivals of monitors, empty boxes, and empty pallets are shown in Figure L7.39.
The processes and routings are shown in Figure L7.40. Note that comments can
be inserted in a line of code as follows (Figure L7.40):
/* inspection time */

The plot of the work-in-process inventory for the 100 hours of simulation run
=1200
is presented in Figure L7.41. Note that after the initial transient period (
minutes), the work-in-process inventory drops and stays mostly in a range of 02.

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FIGURE L7.38
Entities at Shipping Boxes Unlimited.

FIGURE L7.39
Arrival of monitors, empty boxes, and empty pallets at Shipping Boxes Unlimited.

FIGURE L7.40
Process and routing tables at Shipping Boxes Unlimited.

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FIGURE L7.41
Time-weighted plot of the WIP inventory at Shipping Boxes Unlimited.

L7.8 Accumulation of Entities

Sometimes we need to hold entities at a location until a certain number accumulate. Once this critical limit is reached, the entities are released for further processing downstream. This allows us to model a certain type of batching that involves simply the accumulation of parts and their subsequent releaseall at a
single location. The capacity of the location at which the accumulation takes
place must be at least as large as the accumulation limit or the amount of
accumulation.
Problem Statement
Visitors arrive at California Adventure Park in groups that vary in size from
two to four (uniformly distributed). The average time between arrival of two
successive groups is ve minutes, exponentially distributed. All visitors wait
in front of the gate until ve visitors have accumulated. At that point the gate
opens and allows the visitors to enter the park. On average, a visitor spends
2010 minutes (uniformly distributed) in the park. Simulate for 1000 hours.
Track how many visitors are waiting outside the gate and how many are in
the park.
Three locations (Gate_In, Walk_In_Park, and Gate_Out) are dened in this
model. Visitor is dened as the entity. The processes and the layout of the adventure park are shown in Figures L7.42 and L7.43.

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FIGURE L7.42
Process and routing tables for California Adventure Park.

FIGURE L7.43
Layout of California Adventure Park.

L7.9 Splitting of One Entity into Multiple Entities

When a single incoming entity is divided into multiple entities at a location and
processed individually, we can use the SPLIT construct. The SPLIT command
splits the entity into a specied number of entities, and optionally assigns them a
new name. The resulting entities will have the same attribute values as the original entity. Use SPLIT to divide a piece of raw material into components, such as a
silicon wafer into silicon chips or six-pack of cola into individual cans.
Problem Statement
The cafeteria at San Dimas High School receives 10 cases of milk from a vendor
each day before the lunch recess. On receipt, the cases are split open and individual

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cartons (10 per case) are stored in the refrigerator for distribution to students during lunchtime. The distribution of milk cartons takes triangular(.1,.15,.2) minute
per student. The time to split open the cases takes a minimum of 5 minutes and a
maximum of 7 minutes (uniform distribution) per case. Moving the cases from receiving to the refrigerator area takes ve minutes per case, and moving the cartons
from the refrigerator to the distribution area takes 0.2 minute per carton. Students
wait in the lunch line to pick up one milk carton each. There are only 100 students
at this high school. Students show up for lunch with a mean interarrival time of
1 minute (exponential). On average, how long does a carton stay in the cafeteria
before being distributed and consumed? What are the maximum and the minimum
times of stay? Simulate for 10 days.
The layout of the San Dimas High School cafeteria is shown in Figure L7.44.
Three entitiesMilk_Case, Milk_Carton, and Studentare dened. Ten milk
cases arrive with a frequency of 480 minutes. One hundred students show up for
lunch each day. The arrival of students and milk cases is shown in Figure L7.45.
The processing and routing logic is shown in Figure L7.46.

FIGURE L7.44
Layout of the San Dimas High School cafeteria.

FIGURE L7.45
Arrival of milk and students at the San Dimas High School cafeteria.

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FIGURE L7.46
Process and routing logic at the San Dimas High School cafeteria.

L7.10 Decision Statements

In ProModel you can make use of several general control statements for decision
making. ProModel meets the modern standards of structured program design. Although there is no formal denition, computer scientists agree that a structured
program should have modular design and use only the following three types of
logical structures: sequences, decisions, and loops.
Sequences: Program statements are executed one after another.
Decisions: One of two blocks of program code is executed based on a test
for some condition.
Loops: One or more statements are executed repeatedly as long as a
specied condition is true.
All the control statements available in ProModel are shown in Figure L7.47.
In this section we introduce you to some of these statements with examples.

L7.10.1 IF-THEN-ELSE Statement

An IF block allows a program to decide on a course of action based on whether a
certain condition is true or false. A program block of the form
IF condition THEN
action1
ELSE
action2

causes the program to take action1 if condition is true and action2 if condition is
false. Each action consists of one or more ProModel statements. After an action is
taken, execution continues with the line after the IF block.
Problem Statement
The Bombay Restaurant offers only a drive-in facility. Customers arrive at the
rate of six each hour (exponential interarrival time). They place their orders at the
rst window, drive up to the next window for payment, pick up food from the last
window, and then leave. The activity times are given in Table L7.4. The drive-in
facility can accommodate 10 cars at most. However, customers typically leave

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FIGURE L7.47
Control statements
available in ProModel.

TABLE L7.4 Process Times at the Bombay Restaurant

Activity

Process Time (minutes)

Order food
Make payment
Pick up food

Normal (5,1)
Normal (7,2)
Normal (10,2)

and go to the Madras Caf across the street if six cars are waiting in line when they
arrive. Simulate for 100 days (8 hours each day). Estimate the number of customers served each day. Estimate on average how many customers are lost each
day to the competition.
An additional location (Arrive) is added to the model. After the customers arrive, they check if there are fewer than six cars at the restaurant. If yes, they join
the line and wait; if not, they leave and go across the street to the Madras Caf. An
IF-THEN-ELSE statement is added to the logic window in the processing table
(Figure L7.48). A variable (Customer_Lost) is added to the model to keep track of
the number of customers lost to the competition. The layout of the Bombay

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FIGURE L7.48
Process and routing logic at the Bombay Restaurant.

FIGURE L7.49
Layout of the Bombay
Restaurant.

Restaurant is shown in Figure L7.49. Note that Q_1 and Q_2 are each 100 feet
long and Q_3 is 200 feet long.
The total number of customers lost is 501 in 100 days. The number of
customers served in 100 days is 4791. The average cycle time per customer is
36.6 minutes.

L7.10.2 WHILE-DO Loop

The WHILE-DO block repeats a group of statements continuously while a condition
remains true. If the condition is false, the loop is bypassed.

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FIGURE L7.50
An example of the WHILE-DO logic for Shipping Boxes Unlimited.

Problem Statement
The inspector in Section L7.7.2 is also the supervisor of the shop. As such, she
inspects only when at least ve full boxes are waiting for inspection in the
Inspect_Q. A WHILE-DO loop is used to check if the queue has ve or more boxes
waiting for inspection (Figure L7.50). The loop will be executed every hour.
Figure L7.51 shows a time-weighted plot of the contents of the inspection queue.
Note how the queue builds up to 5 (or more) before the inspector starts inspecting
the full boxes.

L7.10.3 DO-WHILE Loop

The DO-WHILE block repeats a group of statements continuously while a condition
remains true. This loop will be executed at least once; use it for processes that will
be executed at least once and possibly more.
Problem Statement
For the Poly Casting Inc. example in Section L7.4, we would like to assign
an upper limit to the work-in-process inventory in the shop. A DO-WHILE loop will
be used to check if the level of WIP is equal to or above ve; if so, the incoming
castings will wait at the receiving dock (Figure L7.52). The loop will be executed
once every hour to check if the level of WIP has fallen below ve. Figure L7.53
show a time-weighted plot of the value of WIP at Poly Castings Inc. Note that the
level of WIP is kept at or below ve.

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FIGURE L7.51
A plot of the contents of the inspection queue.

FIGURE L7.52
An example of a DO-WHILE loop.

L7.10.4 GOTO Statement

The GOTO block jumps to the statement identied by the designated label. A label
should follow the normal rules for names. A colon follows a label.
Problem Statement
The Indian Bank has acquired the Bank of India in Section L7.3. Anthony has
been given a golden handshake (that is, red). As a result of new training provided
to the two remaining tellers (Amar and Akbar) there has been a change in their
customer service time. Whenever more than three customers are waiting for service, the service time is reduced to an average of ve minutes and a standard deviation of two minutes (normally distributed). The layout of the new Indian Bank
is shown in Figure L7.54. A GOTO statement is used to jump to the appropriate wait
statement depending on the number of customers waiting for service in the
Teller_Q, as shown in Figure L7.55.

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FIGURE L7.53
A plot of the value of WIP at Poly Castings Inc.

FIGURE L7.54
The layout of the
Indian Bank.

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FIGURE L7.55
An example of a GOTO statement.

L7.11 Periodic System Shutdown

Some service systems periodically stop admitting new customers for a given duration to catch up on the backlog of work and reduce the congestion. Some automobile service centers, medical clinics, restaurants, amusement parks, and banks
use this strategy. The modulus mathematical operator in ProModel is useful for
simulating such periodic shutdowns.
Problem Statement
The Bank of India in Section L7.3 opens for business each day for 8 hours (480
minutes). Assume that the customers arrive to the bank according to an exponential distribution (mean of 4 minutes). All the tellers service the customers according to a uniform distribution (mean of 10 minutes and half-width of 6 minutes).
Customers are routed to the three tellers in turn (selected in rotation).
Each day after 300 minutes (5 hours) of operation, the front door of the bank
is locked, and any new customers arriving at the bank are turned away. Customers
already inside the bank continue to get served. The bank reopens the front door
90 minutes (1.5 hours) later to new customers. Simulate the system for 480 minutes (8 hours). Make a time-series plot of the Teller_Q to show the effect of locking the front door on the bank.
The logic for locking the front door is shown in Figure L7.56. The simulation
clock time clock(min) is a cumulative counter of hours elapsed since the start of
the simulation run. The current time of any given day can be determined by modulus dividing the current simulation time, clock(min), by 480 minutes. If the remainder of clock(min) divided by 480 minutes is between 300 minutes (5 hours)
and 390 minutes (6.5 hours), the arriving customers are turned away (disposed).
Otherwise, they are allowed into the bank. An IF-THEN-ELSE logic block as described in Section L7.10.1 is used here.
A time-series plot of the contents of the Teller_Q is shown in Figure L7.57.
This plot clearly shows how the Teller_Q (and the whole bank) builds up during

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FIGURE L7.56
Process and routing logic for the Bank of India.

FIGURE L7.57
Time-series plot of Teller_Q at the Bank of India.

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FIGURE L7.58
Histogram of Teller_Q contents at the Bank of India.

the day; then, after the front door is locked at the fth hour (300 minutes) into the
simulated day, customers remaining in the queue are processed and the queue
length decreases (down to zero in this particular simulation run). The queue length
picks back up when the bank reopens the front door at simulation time 6.5 hours
(390 minutes).
The histogram of the same queue (Figure L7.58) shows that approximately
49% of the time the queue was empty. About 70% of the time there are 3 or fewer
customers waiting in line. What is the average time a customer spends in the
bank? Would you recommend that the bank not close the door after 5 hours of operation (customers never liked this practice anyway)? Will the average customer
stay longer in the bank?

L7.12 Exercises
1. Visitors arrive at Kids World entertainment park according to an
exponential interarrival time distribution with mean 2.5 minutes. The
travel time from the entrance to the ticket window is normally
distributed with a mean of three minutes and a standard deviation of
0.5 minute. At the ticket window, visitors wait in a single line until one

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of four cashiers is available to serve them. The time for the purchase of
tickets is normally distributed with a mean of ve minutes and a
standard deviation of one minute. After purchasing tickets, the visitors
go to their respective gates to enter the park. Create a simulation model,
with animation, of this system. Run the simulation model for 200 hours
to determine
a. The average and maximum length of the ticketing queue.
b. The average number of customers completing ticketing per hour.
c. The average utilization of the cashiers.
d. Whether management should add more cashiers.
2. A consultant for Kids World recommended that four individual queues
be formed at the ticket window (one for each cashier) instead of one
common queue. Create a simulation model, with animation, of this
system. Run the simulation model for 200 hours to determine
a. The average and maximum length of the ticketing queues.
b. The average number of customers completing ticketing per hour.
c. The average utilization of the cashiers.
d. Whether you agree with the consultants decision. Would you
recommend a raise for the consultant?
3. At the Kids World entertainment park in Exercise 1, the operating
hours are 8 A.M. till 10 P.M. each day (all week). Simulate for a whole
year (365 days) and answer questions ad as given in Exercise 1.
4. At Southern California Airlines traveler check-in facility, three types
of customers arrive: passengers with e-tickets (Type E), passengers with
paper tickets (Type T), and passengers that need to purchase tickets
(Type P). The interarrival distribution and the service times for these
passengers are given in Table L7.5. Create a simulation model, with
animation, of this system. Run the simulation model for 2000 hours.
If separate gate agents serve each type of passenger, determine the
following:
a. The average and maximum length of the three queues.
b. The average number of customers of each type completing check-in
procedures per hour.
c. The average utilization of the gate agents.

TABLE L7.5 Interarrival and Service Time Distributions at Southern

California Airline
Type of Traveler

Interarrival Distribution

Service Time Distribution

Type E
Type T
Type P

Exponential (mean 5.5 min.)

Exponential (mean 10.5 min.)
Exponential (mean 15.5 min.)

Normal (mean 3 min., std. dev. 1 min.)

Normal (mean 8 min., std. dev. 3 min.)
Normal (mean 12 min., std. dev. 3 min.)

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d. The percentage of time the number of customers (of each type of

customer) waiting in line is 2.
e. Would you recommend one single line for check-in for all three types
of travelers? Discuss the pros and cons of such a change.
5. Raja & Rani, a fancy restaurant in Santa Clara, holds a maximum of 15
diners. Customers arrive according to an exponential distribution with a
mean of 5 minutes. Customers stay in the restaurant according to a
triangular distribution with a minimum of 45 minutes, a maximum of 60
minutes, and a mode of 75 minutes. Create a simulation model, with
animation, of this system. The restaurant operating hours are 3 P.M. till
12 P.M. Run the simulation model for 50 replications of 9 hours each.
a. Beginning empty, how long (average and standard deviation) does it
take for the restaurant to ll?
b. What is the total number of diners (average and standard deviation)
entering the restaurant before it lls?
c. What is the total number of guests (average and standard deviation)
served per night?
d. What is the average utilization of the restaurant?
6. Woodland Nursing Home has six departmentsinitial exam, X ray,
operating room, cast-tting room, recovery room, and checkout room.
The probabilities that a patient will go from one department to another
are given in Table L7.6. The time patients spend in each department is
given in Table L7.7. Patients arrive at the average rate of 5 per hour
(exponential interarrival time). The nursing home remains open 24/7.
TABLE L7.6 Probabilities of Patient Flow
From
Initial exam

X ray

Operating room

Cast-tting room

Recovery room

To

Probability

X ray
Operating room
Recovery room
Checkout room
Operating room
Cast-tting room
Recovery room
Checkout room
Cast-tting room
Recovery room
Checkout room
Recovery room
X ray
Checkout room
Operating room
X ray
Checkout room

.35
.20
.15
.30
.15
.25
.40
.20
.30
.65
.05
.55
.10
.35
.10
.20
.70

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TABLE L7.7 Patient Processing Time

Department

Patient Time in Department

Initial exam
X ray
Operating room
Cast-tting room
Recovery room

Normal (5,2) minutes

Uniform (6,1) minutes
Normal (30,5) minutes
Uniform (10,4) minutes
Normal (8,2) minutes

TABLE L7.8 Process Time Distributions at

United Electronics
Assembly
Soldering
Painting
Inspection

Uniform (13.51.5) minutes

Normal (36,10) minutes
Uniform (5515) minutes
Exponential (8) minutes

However, every seven hours (420 minutes) the front door is locked for
an hour (60 minutes). No new patients are allowed in the nursing home
during this time. Patients already in the system continue to get served.
Simulate for one year (365 days, 24 hours per day).
a. Figure out the utilization of each department.
b. What are the average and maximum numbers of patients in each
department?
c. Which is the bottleneck department?
d. What is the average time spent by a patient in the nursing home?
7. United Electronics manufactures small custom electronic assemblies.
Parts must be processed through four stations: assembly, soldering,
painting, and inspection. Orders arrive with an exponential interarrival
distribution (mean 20 minutes). The process time distributions are
shown in Table L7.8.
The soldering operation can be performed on three jobs at a time.
Painting can be done on four jobs at a time. Assembly and inspection
are performed on one job at a time. Create a simulation model, with
animation, of this system. Simulate this manufacturing system for
100 days, eight hours each day. Collect and print statistics on the
utilization of each station, associated queues, and the total number
of jobs manufactured during each eight-hour shift (average).
8. In United Electronics in Exercise 7, 10 percent of all nished
assemblies are sent back to soldering for rework after inspection, ve
percent are sent back to assembly for rework after inspection, and one

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percent of all assemblies fail to pass and are scrapped. Create a

simulation model, with animation, of this system. Simulate this
manufacturing system for 100 days, eight hours each day. Collect and
print statistics on the utilization of each station, associated queues, total
number of jobs assembled, number of assemblies sent for rework to
assembly and soldering, and the number of assemblies scrapped during
each eight-hour shift (average).
9. Small toys are assembled in four stages (Centers 1, 2, and 3 and
Inspection) at Bengal Toy Company. After each assembly step, the
appliance is inspected or tested; if a defect is found, it must be corrected
and then checked again. The assemblies arrive at a constant rate of one
assembly every two minutes. The times to assemble, test, and correct
defects are normally distributed. The means and standard deviations of
the times to assemble, inspect, and correct defects, as well as the
likelihood of an assembly error, are shown in Table L7.9. If an assembly
is found defective, the defect is corrected and it is inspected again. After
a defect is corrected, the likelihood of another defect being found is the
same as during the rst inspection. We assume in this model that an
assembly defect is eventually corrected and then it is passed on to the
next station. Simulate for one year (2000 hours) and determine the
number of good toys shipped in a year.
10. Salt Lake City Electronics manufactures small custom communication
equipment. Two different job types are to be processed within the
following manufacturing cell. The necessary data are given in
Table L7.10. Simulate the system to determine the average number of
jobs waiting for different operations, number of jobs of each type
nished each day, average cycle time for each type of job, and the
average cycle time for all jobs.
11. Six dump trucks at the DumpOnMe facility in Riverside are used to
haul coal from the entrance of a small mine to the railroad. Figure
L7.59 provides a schematic of the dump truck operation. Each truck is
loaded by one of two loaders. After loading, a truck immediately moves

TABLE L7.9 Process Times and Probability of Defects at Bengal

Toy Company
Assembly Time

Inspect Time

Correct Time

Center

Mean

Standard
Deviation

Mean

Standard
Deviation

P(error)

Mean

Standard
Deviation

1
2
3

.7
.75
.8

.2
.25
.15

.2
.2
.15

.05
.05
.03

.1
.05
.03

.2
.15
.1

.05
.04
.02

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FIGURE L7.59

Truck travel
and unload

Schematic of dump
truck operation for
DumpOnMe.

Loader 1
Loader queue

Weighing queue

Weighing
scale

Loader 2

TABLE L7.10 Data Collected at Salt Lake City Electronics

Job
Type

Number
of
Batches

Number
of Jobs
per
Batch

Assembly
Time

Soldering
Time

Painting
Time

Inspection
Time

Time
between
Batch
Arrivals

1
2

15
25

5
3

Tria (5,7,10)
Tria (7,10,15)

Normal (36,10)

Uniform (5515)
Uniform (355)

Exponential (8)
Exponential (5)

Exp (14)
Exp (10)

Note: All times are given in minutes.

TABLE L7.11 Various Time Measurement Data

at the DumpOnMe Facility
Loading time
Weighing time
Travel time

Uniform (7.52.5) minutes

Uniform (3.51.5) minutes
Triangular (10,12,15) minutes

to the scale to be weighed as soon as possible. Both the loaders and the
scale have a rst-come, rst-served waiting line (or queue) for trucks.
Travel time from a loader to the scale is considered negligible. After
being weighed, a truck begins travel time (during which time the truck
unloads), and then afterward returns to the loader queue. The
distributions of loading time, weighing time, and travel time are shown
in Table L7.11.
a. Create a simulation model, with animation, of this system. Simulate
for 200 days, eight hours each day.
b. Collect statistics to estimate the loader and scale utilization
(percentage of time busy).
c. About how many trucks are loaded each day on average?

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12. At the Pilot Pen Company, a molding machine produces pen barrels of
two different colorsred and bluein the ratio of 3:2. The molding
time is triangular (3,4,6) minutes per barrel. The barrels go to a lling
machine, where ink of appropriate color is lled at the rate of 20 pens
per hour (exponentially distributed). Another molding machine makes
caps of the same two colors in the ratio of 3:2. The molding time is
triangular (3,4,6) minutes per cap. At the next station, caps and lled
barrels of matching colors are joined together. The joining time is
exponentially distributed with a mean of 1 min. Simulate for 2000 hours.
Find the average number of pens produced per hour. Collect statistics on
the utilization of the molding machines and the joining equipment.
13. Customers arrive at the NoWaitBurger hamburger stand with an
interarrival time that is exponentially distributed with a mean of one
minute. Out of 10 customers, 5 buy a hamburger and a drink, 3 buy a
hamburger, and 2 buy just a drink. One server handles the hamburger
while another handles the drink. A person buying both items needs to
wait in line for both servers. The time it takes to serve a customer is
N(70,10) seconds for each item. Simulate for 100 hours. Collect
statistics on the number of customers served per hour, size of the
queues, and utilization of the servers. What changes would you suggest
to make the system more efcient?
14. Workers who work at the Detroit ToolNDie plant must check out tools
from a tool crib. Workers arrive according to an exponential distribution
with a mean time between arrivals of ve minutes. At present, three tool
crib clerks staff the tool crib. The time to serve a worker is normally
distributed with a mean of 10 minutes and a standard deviation of
2 minutes. Compare the following servicing methods. Simulate for
2000 hours and collect data.
a. Workers form a single queue, choosing the next available tool crib
clerk.
b. Workers enter the shortest queue (each clerk has his or her own
queue).
c. Workers choose one of three queues at random.
15. At the ShopNSave, a small family-owned grocery store, there are only
four aisles: aisle 1fruits/vegetables, aisle 2packaged goods (cereals
and the like), aisle 3dairy products, and aisle 4meat/sh. The time
between two successive customer arrivals is exponentially distributed
with a mean of 5 minutes. After arriving to the store, each customer
grabs a shopping cart. Twenty percent of all customers go to aisle 1,
30 percent go to aisle 2, 50 percent go to aisle 3, and 70 percent go to
aisle 4. The number of items selected for purchase in each aisle is
uniformly distributed between 2 and 8. The time spent to browse and
pick up each item is normally distributed: N(5,2) minutes. There are
three identical checkout counters; each counter has its own checkout

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line. The customer chooses the shortest line. Once a customer joins a
line, he or she is not allowed to leave or switch lines. The checkout time
is given by the following regression equation:
Checkout time = N(3,0.3) + (#of items) * N(0.5,0.15) minutes
The rst term of the checkout time is for receiving cash or a check or
credit card from the customer, opening and closing the cash register,
and handing over the receipt and cash to the customer. After checking
out, a customer leaves the cart at the front of the store and leaves. Build
a simulation model for the grocery store. Use the model to simulate a
14-hour day.
a. The percentages of customers visiting each aisle do not add up
to 100 percent. Why?
b. What is the average amount of time a customer spends at the
grocery store?
c. How many customers check out per cashier per hour?
d. What is the average amount of time a customer spends waiting in
the checkout line?
e. What is the average utilization of the cashiers?
f. Assuming there is no limit to the number of shopping carts,
determine the average and maximum number of carts in use at any
time.
g. On average how many customers are waiting in line to checkout?
h. If the owner adopts a customer service policy that there will never
be any more than three customers in any checkout line, how many
cashiers are needed?
Embellishments:

I. The store manager is considering designating one of the checkout lines

as Express, for customers checking out with 10 or fewer items. Is that a
good idea? Why or why not?
II. In reality, there are only 10 shopping carts at the ShopNSave store.
If there are no carts available when customers arrive they leave
immediately and go to the more expensive ShopNSpend store down the
street. Modify the simulation model to reect this change. How many
customers are lost per hour? How many shopping carts should they
have so that no more than 5 percent of customers are lost?
16. Planes arrive at the Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose International
Airport, Calcutta with interarrival times that are exponentially
distributed with a mean time of 30 minutes. If there is no room at the
airport when a plane arrives, the pilot ies around and comes back to
land after a normally distributed time having a mean of 20 minutes and
a standard deviation of 5 minutes. There are two runways and three
gates at this small airport. The time from touchdown to arrival at a gate
is normally distributed having a mean of ve minutes and a standard

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deviation of one minute. A maximum of three planes can be unloaded

and loaded at the airport at any time. The times to unload and load a
plane are uniformly distributed between 20 and 30 minutes. The
pushoff, taxi, and takeoff times are normally distributed with a mean of
six minutes and a standard deviation of one minute. The airport operates
24/7. Build a simulation model and run it for one year.
a. How much will adding a new gate decrease the time that airplanes
have to circle before landing?
b. Will adding a new gate affect the turnaround time of airplanes at the
airport? How much?
c. Is it better to add another runway instead of another gate? If so, why?

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MODEL VERIFICATION
AND VALIDATION

Dew knot trussed yore spell chequer two ned awl yore mistakes.
Brendan Hills

In this lab we describe the verication and validation phases in the development
and analysis of simulation models. In Section L8.1 we describe an inspection and
rework model. In Section L8.2 we show how to verify the model by tracing the
events in it. Section L8.3 shows how to debug a model. The ProModel logic,
basic, and advanced debugger options are also discussed.

L8.1 Verication of an Inspection and Rework Model

Problem Statement
Bombay Clothing Mill is a textile manufacturer, importer, and reseller. Boxes of garments arrive (three per hour, exponentially distributed) from an overseas supplier to
the Bombay Clothing mill warehouse in Bombay for identication and labeling, inspection, and packaging (Figure L8.1). The identication and labeling take U(10,2),
inspection takes N(5,1), and packaging takes N(4,0.25) minutes. At times the labeling machine malfunctions. The labeling mistakes are detected during inspection.
Sixty percent of the garments are labeled properly and go on to the packaging area;
however, 40 percent of the garments are sent back for rework (relabeling). Garments
sent back for rework have a higher priority over regular garments at the labeling machine. Movement between all areas takes one minute. Simulate for 100 hours.
Priorities determine which waiting entity or downtime is permitted to access
a location or resource when the location or resource becomes available. Priorities
may be any value between 0 and 999 with higher values having higher priority.
For simple prioritizing, you should use priorities from 0 to 99.
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FIGURE L8.1
Layout of the Bombay
Clothing Mill.

FIGURE L8.2
Locations at the
Bombay Clothing Mill
warehouse.

FIGURE L8.3
Process and routing tables at the Bombay Clothing Mill.

Five locations (Ship_In, Label_Q, Relabel_Q, Labeling, Inspection, and

Pack_Ship) are dened as shown in Figure L8.2. Two entities (Garments and Relabel) are dened next. The processes and routing logic are dened as shown in
Figure L8.3. Note that the garments sent back for relabeling have a higher priority of 2 to access the labeling machine location as opposed to a lower priority of 1
for incoming garments.

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L8.2 Verication by Tracing the Simulation Model

Now we will run the model developed in the previous section with the Trace feature on. Trace will list events as they happen during a simulation. A trace is a list
of events that occur during a simulation. For example, a line in the trace could
read, EntA arrives at Loc1, Downtime for Res1 begins. A trace listing also displays assignments, such as variable and array element assignments. A trace listing
of a simulation run may be viewed in several ways and is generated in one of two
modes, Step or Continuous.
Off: Select this option to discontinue a trace.
Step: Choose this option to step through the trace listing one event at a
time. Each time you click the left mouse button, the simulation will
advance one event. Clicking and holding the right mouse button while in
this mode generates a continuous trace.
Continuous: Choose this option to write the trace continuously to the
output device selected from the Trace Output submenu. This is useful
when you do not know exactly where to begin or end the trace. Clicking
and holding the right mouse button causes the trace to stop until the right
mouse button is released.
Run the simulation model. Choose Trace from the Options menu. You can
choose either the step mode or the continuous mode for running Trace (Figure L8.4).
Choose the step mode for now. The trace output can be sent either to the Window or
to a le (Figure L8.5). Lets choose to send the output to the Window.
The trace prompts are displayed at the bottom of the screen as shown in Figure L8.6. Follow the trace prompts and verify that the model is doing what it is
supposed to be doing. Make sure through visualization and the trace messages
that the rework items are indeed given higher priority than rst-time items. Also,
from the garment and relabel queue contents shown in Figure L8.7, notice that the
relabel queue is quite small, whereas the garment queue grows quite big at times
(as a result of its lower priority for the labeling operation).

FIGURE L8.4

FIGURE L8.5

Trace modes in ProModel.

Trace output options in ProModel.

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FIGURE L8.6
Tracing the simulation
model of the Bombay
Clothing Mill
warehouse.

FIGURE L8.7
Plots of garment and relabel queue contents.

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L8.3 Debugging the Simulation Model

The debugger (Figure L8.8) is a convenient, efcient way to test or follow the processing of any logic in your model. The debugger is used to step through the logic
one statement at a time and examine variables and attributes while a model is running. All local variables, current entity attributes, and so forth are displayed, and
the user has full control over what logic gets tracked, even down to a specic entity at a specic location (Figure L8.9).
FIGURE L8.8
Debugger options
menu.

FIGURE L8.9
The ProModel
Debugger menu.

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The user can launch the debugger using a DEBUG statement within the model
code or from the Options menu during run time. The system state can be monitored
to see exactly when and why things occur. Combined with the Trace window,
which shows the events that are being scheduled and executed, the debugger enables a modeler to track down logic errors or model bugs.

L8.3.1 Debugging ProModel Logic

Before we discuss the details of the debugger, it is important to understand the
following terms:
Statement: A statement in ProModel performs some operation or takes
some actionfor example, JOIN, WAIT, USE, MOVE, and so on (refer to
the ProModel Reference Guide for more information on all ProModel
statements).
Logic: Logic is the complete set of statements dened for a particular
process record, downtime event, initialization or termination of the
simulation, and so forth.
Thread: A thread is a specic execution of any logic. A thread is initiated
whenever logic needs to be executed. This can be an entity running
through operation logic, the initialization logic, a resource running some
node logic, downtime logic, or any other logic. Note that the same logic
may be running in several threads at the same time. For example, three
entities of the same type being processed simultaneously at the same
multicapacity location would constitute three threads.
Even though several threads can execute the same logic at the same time in
the simulation, the simulation processor can process them only one at a time. So
there is really only one current thread, while all other threads are suspended
(either scheduled for some future simulation time or waiting to be executed after
the current thread at the same simulation instant).
Every time logic is executed, a thread that is assigned a unique number executes it. THREADNUM returns the number of the thread that called the function. This
function can be used with the IF-THEN and DEBUG statements to bring up the debugger at a certain process.
For example, for ElSegundo Composites, from Lab 7, Section L7.6.1, suppose the GROUP quantity has been typed as 5 (typo). A debug statement IF
THREADNUM ()
39 THEN DEBUG has been added to the operation logic at the
Oven location that causes the error, as shown in Figure L8.10. The simulation will
run until the proper process and then bring up the debugger (Figure L8.11). The
debugger can then be used to step through the process to nd the particular statement causing the error.

L8.3.2 Basic Debugger Options

The debugger can be used in two modes: Basic and Advanced. The Basic Debugger appears initially, with the option of using the Advanced Debugger. The Basic

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FIGURE L8.10
An example of a DEBUG statement in the processing logic.

FIGURE L8.11
The Debugger window.

Debugger (Figure L8.11) has the following options:

Error display box: Displays the error message or reason why the
debugger is displayed, such as the user condition becoming true.
Logic display box: Displays the statements of the logic being executed.
Information box: Displays either the context of the logic or local
information.
Context: Displays the module, operation, and line number in which the
debugger stopped.
Local information: Displays local variables and entity attributes with
nonzero values for the thread in the information box.
End Simulation: Choose this option to terminate simulation. This will
prompt for whether or not you would like to collect statistics.

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Run: Continues the simulation, but still checks the debugger options
selected in the Debugger Options dialog box.
Next Statement: Jumps to the next statement in the current logic. Note
that if the last statement executed suspends the thread (for example, if
the entity is waiting to capture a resource), another thread that also meets
the debugger conditions may be displayed as the next statement.
Next Thread: Brings up the debugger at the next thread that is initiated or
resumed.
Into Subroutine: Steps to the rst statement in the next subroutine
executed by this thread. Again, if the last statement executed suspends
the thread, another thread that also meets debugger conditions may be
displayed rst. If no subroutine is found in the current thread, a message
is displayed in the Error Display box.
Options: Brings up the Debugger Options dialog box. You may also bring
up this dialog box from the Simulation menu.
Advanced: Changes the debugger to Advanced mode.

L8.3.3 Advanced Debugger Options

The Advanced Debugger (Figure L8.12) contains all the options in the Basic
Debugger plus a few advanced features:
Next (Thread): Jumps to the next thread that is initiated or resumed. This
button has the same functionality as the Next Thread button in the Basic
Debugger.
New (Thread): Jumps to the next thread that is initiated.
Disable (Thread): Temporarily disables the debugger for the current
thread.
Exclusive (Thread): The Debugger displays the statements executed
within the current thread only. When the thread terminates, the Exclusive
setting is removed.
Next (Logic): Jumps to the next initiated or resumed thread that is not
executing the same logic as the current thread.
New (Logic): Jumps over any resumed threads to the next initiated thread
that is not executing the same logic as the current thread. This will
automatically jump to a new thread.
Disable (Logic): Temporarily disables the debugger for all threads
executing the current logic.
Exclusive (Logic): The debugger displays only the statements executed in
any thread that are an instance of the current logic.
Enable disabled threads and logics: Enables the threads and logics that
were disabled previously.
For more information and detailed examples of how to use the various
debugger options, consult the ProModel Users Guide.

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FIGURE L8.12
The ProModel
Advanced Debugger
options.

L8.4 Exercises
1. For the example in Section L8.1, insert a DEBUG statement when a garment
is sent back for rework. Verify that the simulation model is actually
sending back garments for rework to the location named Label_Q.
2. For the example in Section L7.1 (Pomona Electronics), trace the model
to verify that the circuit boards of type B are following the routing given
in Table L7.1.
3. For the example in Section L7.5 (Poly Casting Inc.), run the simulation
model and launch the debugger from the Options menu. Turn on the
Local Information in the Basic Debugger. Verify the values of the
variables WIP and PROD_QTY.
4. For the example in Section L7.3 (Bank of India), trace the model to
verify that successive customers are in fact being served by the three
tellers in turn.
5. For the example in Section L7.7.2 (Shipping Boxes Unlimited), trace the
model to verify that the full boxes are in fact being loaded on empty pallets
at the Inspector location and are being unloaded at the Shipping location.

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SIMULATION OUTPUT
ANALYSIS

Nothing has such power to broaden the mind as the ability to investigate systematically and truly all that comes under thy observation in life.
Marcus Aurelius

In this lab we review the differences between terminating and nonterminating

simulations. You will learn how to collect observations of a performance metric
from both terminating and nonterminating simulations using ProModel. Key
problems of identifying the warm-up period and selecting the run length of a nonterminating simulation are addressed in the lab. We also illustrate how supporting
software can be used to help determine if the observations reported by ProModel
for a simulation are independent and normally distributed.

L9.1 Terminating versus Nonterminating Simulations

A terminating simulation has a xed starting condition and a xed ending condition (terminating point). For example, a simulation model of a store that opens at
9:00 A.M. begins with a starting condition of no customers in the system and terminates after the store closes at 7:00 P.M. and the last customer is processed. Many
service-oriented systems (banks, doctors ofces, post ofces, schools, amusement parks, restaurants, and department stores) are analyzed with a terminating
simulation. The system returns to a xed starting condition after reaching a natural terminating event.
A nonterminating simulation has neither a xed starting condition nor a natural ending condition. The simulation cannot run indenitely, so we end it after
its output reects the long-term average behavior of the system. A hospital or a
24-hour gas station could be analyzed with a nonterminating simulation depending on the objective of the study. Many systems appear to be terminating but in
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reality are nonterminating. Systems that close/terminate but do not go back to a

xed starting condition (empty for example) are usually analyzed with nonterminating simulations. For example, a production system that uses the current days
unnished work as the next days starting work is really a nonterminating system.
If we compress time by removing the intervals during which the system is closed, it
behaves as a continuously operating system with no point at which the system starts
anew. In general, most manufacturing systems are nonterminating. The work-inprocess inventory from one day is typically carried forward to the next day.
When we report the simulation models response based on the output from a
terminating simulation or a nonterminating simulation, it is important to use interval estimates rather than simple point estimates of the parameter being measured. The advantage of the interval estimate is that it provides a measure of the
variability in output produced by the simulation. Interval estimates or condence
intervals provide a range of values around the point estimate that have a specied
likelihood of containing the parameters true but unknown value. For a given condence level, a smaller condence interval is considered better than a larger one.
Similarly, for a given condence interval, a higher condence level indicates a
better estimate. To construct the condence interval, the observations produced by
replications or batch intervals need to be independent and identically distributed.
Furthermore, the observations should be normally distributed when using the Students t distribution to calculate the condence interval. We can fudge a little on
the normality assumption but not on the independence and identically distribution
requirements. These topics are elaborated on in Chapter 9.

L9.2 Terminating Simulation

Problem Statement
Spuds-n-More by the Seashore is a favorite among vacationers at the seaside resort. Spuds-n-More, a takeout fast-food restaurant, specializes in potato foods,
serving many different varieties of french fries, wafe fries, and potato logs along
with hamburgers and drinks. Customers walking along the boardwalk access the
restaurant via a single ordering window, where they place their orders, pay, and
receive their food. There is no seating in the restaurant. The interarrival time of
customers to Spuds-n-More is exponentially distributed with a mean of six minutes. The activity times are given in Table L9.1. The waiting area in front of the
walkup window can accommodate only ve customers. If the waiting area is lled
TABLE L9.1 Process Times at Spuds-n-More by the Seashore
Activity

Process Time (minutes)

Order food
Make payment
Pick up food

E(2)
E(1.5)
E(5)

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to capacity when a customer arrives, the customer bypasses Spuds-n-More.

Mr. Taylor closes the entryway to the waiting area in front of his restaurant after
eight hours of operation. However, any customers already in the waiting area by
the closing time are served before the kitchen shuts down for the day.
Mr. Taylor is thinking about expanding into the small newspaper stand next to
Spuds-n-More that has been abandoned. This would allow him to add a second window to serve his customers. The rst window would be used for taking orders and
collecting payments, and the second window would be used for lling orders. Before
investing in the new space, however, Mr. Taylor needs to convince the major stockholder of Spuds-n-More, Pritchard Enterprises, that the investment would allow the
restaurant to serve more customers per day. The rst step is to build a baseline (as-is)
model of the current restaurant conguration and then to embellish the model with
the new window and measure the effect it has on the number of customers processed
per day. Mr. Taylor is interested in seeing a 90 percent condence interval for the
number of customers processed per day in the baseline simulation.

L9.2.1 Starting and Terminating Conditions (Run Length)

Build the baseline model of the as-is restaurant and conduct a terminating simulation to estimate the expected number of customers served each day. The starting
condition for the simulation is that the system begins in the morning empty of customers with the rst customer arriving at time zero. Customers are admitted into
the restaurants queue over the eight hours of operation. The simulation terminates after reaching eight hours and having processed the last customer admitted
into the queue. The layout of the simulation model is shown in Figure L9.1, and a
printout of the model is given in Figure L9.2. Note that the length of the Order_Q
location is 25 feet and the Customer entity travel speed is 150 feet per minute.
These values affect the entitys travel time in the queue (time for a customer to
walk to the end of the queue) and are required to match the results presented in
this lab. The model is included on the CD accompanying the book under le name
Lab 9_2_1 Spuds-n-More1.MOD.
Lets take a look at the model listing in Figure L9.2 to see how the termination criterion was implemented. The Entry location serves as a gate for allowing
customers into the queue until the simulation clock time reaches eight hours. Entities arriving after the simulation clock reaches eight hours are turned away
(routed to Exit) by the routing rule User Condition (IF clock(hr) > 8) at the
Entry location. Entities arriving within eight hours are routed to the Order_Q
location (see routing rule User Condition IF clock(hr) <= 8). Two global variables are declared to count the number of entities arriving at the Order_Q location
and the number of entities processed at the Order_Clerk location. See the statement Inc Arrivals at the Order_Q location and the statement Inc Processed at
the Order_Clerk location. The Inc statement increments the variables value by
one each time it is executed. As the entities that arrive after eight hours of simulation time are turned away to the Exit, the number of entities processed by the
Order_Clerk is compared to the number of entities allowed into the Order_Q (see
Move Logic). If Processed = Arrivals, then all entities that were allowed into the

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FIGURE L9.1
Layout of the Spuds-n-More simulation model.

Order_Q have been processed and the simulation is terminated by the Stop statement. Notice that the combined capacity of the Entry and Order_Q locations is
ve in order to satisfy the requirement that the waiting area in front of the restaurant accommodates up to ve customers.
We have been viewing the output from our simulations with ProModels new
Output Viewer 3DR. Lets conduct this lab using ProModels traditional Output
Viewer, which serves up the same information as the 3DR viewer but does so a
little faster. To switch viewers, select Tools from the ProModel main menu bar
and then select Options. Select the Output Viewer as shown in Figure L9.3.

L9.2.2 Replications
Run the simulation for ve replications to record the number of customers served
each day for ve successive days. To run the ve replications, select Options from
under the Simulation main menu. Figure L9.4 illustrates the simulation options set
to run ve replications of the simulation. Notice that no run hours are specied.

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FIGURE L9.2
The simulation model of Spuds-n-More.

After ProModel runs the ve replications, it displays a message asking if you wish
to see the results. Answer yes.
Next ProModel displays the General Report Type window (Figure L9.5).
Here you specify your desire to see the output results for <All> replications and
then click on the Options . . . button to specify that you wish the output report to
also include the sample mean (average), sample standard deviation, and 90 percent condence interval of the ve observations collected via the ve replications.
The ProModel output report is shown in Figure L9.6. The number of customers
processed each day can be found under the Current Value column of the output
report in the VARIABLES section. The simulation results indicate that the number
of customers processed each day uctuates randomly. The uctuation may be

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FIGURE L9.3
ProModels Default
Output Viewer set to
Output Viewer.

FIGURE L9.4
ProModels Simulation
Options window set to
run ve replications of
the simulation.

attributed to variations in processing times or customer arrivals. It is obvious that

we cannot reliably use the observation from a single days simulation to estimate
the expected number of customers served each day. The results from a single day
could produce an estimate as small as 59 or as large as 67. Either value could be a
very poor estimate of the true expected number of customers served each day.
The average number of customers processed over the ve days is computed
as x = 62.20 (Figure L9.6). This provides a much better point estimate of the expected daily service rate (number of customers processed each day), but it fails to
capture any information on the variability of our estimate. The sample deviation
of s = 3.27 customers per day provides that information. The most valuable piece
of information is the 90 percent condence interval computed by ProModel using

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FIGURE L9.5
ProModel General
Report Options set to
display the results
from all replications as
well as the average,
standard deviation,
and 90 percent
condence interval.

FIGURE L9.6
ProModel output report for ve replications of the Spuds-n-More simulation.

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the sample mean and sample standard deviation. With approximately 90 percent
condence, the true but unknown mean number of customers processed per day
falls between 59.08 and 65.32 customers. These results convince Mr. Taylor that
the model is a valid representation of the actual restaurant, but he wants to get a
better estimate of the number of customers served per day.

L9.2.3 Required Number of Replications

The advantage of the condence interval estimate is that it quanties the error in
the point estimate. A wide condence interval implies that the point estimate is not
very accurate and should be given little credence. The width of the condence interval is a function of both the variability of the system and the amount of data
collected for estimation. We can make the condence interval smaller by collecting more data (running more replications). However, for highly variable systems,
one may need a lot of data to make extremely precise statements (smaller condence intervals). Collecting the data may be very time consuming if the simulation takes long to run. Hence, we sometimes have to make a judicious choice
about the amount of precision required.
The half-width of the 90 percent condence interval based on the ve
replications is 3.12 customers (65.32 C.I. High 62.20 Average). How many
additional replications are needed if Mr. Taylor desires a condence interval halfwidth of 2.0 customers? Using the technique described in Section 9.2.3 of
Chapter 9 we have
e = hw = 2.0 customers
= signicance level = 0.10 for a 0.90 condence level









(Z /2 )s 2
(t,/2 )s 2
(1.645)3.27 2


n =
=
=
= 7.23 replications
e
e
2.0
The value of 7.23 is appropriately rounded up to 8 replications. The n
= 8 provides a rough approximation of the number of replications that are needed to
achieve the requested error amount e = 2.0 customers at the 0.10 signicance
level. Running an additional three replications of the Spuds-n-More baseline simulation and combining the output with the output from the original ve replications produces a sample mean of 61.50 customers and an approximate 90 percent
condence interval of 58.99 to 64.00 customers. You should verify this. Although
the condence interval half-width of 2.51 customers is larger than the target value
of 2.0 customers, it is smaller than the half-width of the condence interval based
on ve replications. We could keep running additional replications to get closer to
the target half-width of 2.0 customers if we like.

L9.2.4 Simulation Output Assumptions

To compute the condence interval, we assumed that the observations of the
number of customers processed each day were independent and normally

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distributed. The observations are independent because ProModel used a different

stream of random numbers to simulate each replication. We do not know that the
observations are normally distributed, however. Therefore, we should specify that
the condence level of the interval is approximately 0.90. Nevertheless, we followed an acceptable procedure to get our estimate for the service rate, and we can
stand by our approximate condence interval. To illustrate a point, however, lets
take a moment to use the Stat::Fit software provided with ProModel to test if the
simulation output is normally distributed. To do so, we need a lot more than eight
observations. Lets pick 100 just because it is a round number and we can quickly
generate them by conguring ProModel to run 100 replications of the simulation.
Try this now. Notice that you get a very small condence interval with this many
observations.
It would take a while to enter the 100 observations into Stat::Fit one at a time.
A faster method is to save the ProModel output report with the results from the 100
replications into a Microsoft Excel le format that can then be copied into the
Stat::Fit data table. To do this from the ProModel output report viewer, select File
from the main menu and click on the Save As option, then enter a name for the le,
and save the le as type MS Excel (Figure L9.7). Open the Excel le that you just

FIGURE L9.7
Saving a ProModel
output report into a
Microsoft Excel le
format.

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FIGURE L9.8
The ProModel output report displayed within a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.

saved the ProModel output to, click on the VARIABLES sheet tab at the bottom of
the spreadsheet (Figure L9.8), highlight the 100 Current Value observations of the
Processed variablemaking sure not to include the average, standard deviation,
90% C.I. Low, and 90% C.I. High values (the last four values in the column)and
paste the 100 observations into the Stat::Fit data table (Figure L9.9).
After the 100 observations are pasted into the Stat::Fit Data Table, display a
histogram of the data. Based on the histogram, the observations appear somewhat
normally distributed (Figure L9.9). Furthermore, Stat::Fit estimates that the normal distribution with mean = 59.30 and standard deviation = 4.08 provides
an acceptable t to the data. Therefore, we probably could have dropped the word
approximate when we presented our condence interval to Mr. Taylor. Be sure
to verify all of this for yourself using the software.
Note that if you were to repeat this procedure in practice because the problem
requires you to be as precise and as sure as possible in your conclusions, then you
would report your condence interval based on the larger number of observations.
Never discard precious data.
Before leaving this section, look back at Figure L9.6. The Total Failed column in the Failed Arrivals section of the output report indicates the number of
customers that arrived to eat at Spuds-n-More but left because the waiting line

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FIGURE L9.9
Stat::Fit analysis of the 100 observations of the number of customers processed per day
by Spuds-n-More.

was full. Mr. Taylor thinks that his proposed expansion plan will allow him to capture some of the customers he is currently losing. In Lab Chapter 10, we will add
embellishments to the as-is simulation model to reect Mr. Taylors expansion
plan to see if he is right.

L9.3 Nonterminating Simulation

We run a nonterminating simulation of a system if we are interested in understanding the steady-state behavior of the systemthat is, its long term average
behavior. Because a nonterminating system does not return to a xed initial condition and theoretically never shuts down, it is not easy to select either the starting
condition for the simulation or the amount of time to run the simulation.
When a simulation has just begun running, its state (number of customers in
the system for example) will be greatly affected by the initial state of the simulation and the elapsed time of the run. In this case, the simulation is said to be in a
transient condition. However, after sufcient time has elapsed, the state of the simulation becomes essentially independent of the initial state and the elapsed time.
When this happens, the simulation has reached a steady-state condition. Although

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the simulations output will continue to be random, the statistical distribution of the
simulations output does not change after the simulation reaches steady state.
The period during which the simulation is in the transient phase is known as the
warm-up period. This is the amount of time to let the simulation run before gathering statistics. Data collection for statistics begins at the end of the warm-up and continues until the simulation has run long enough to allow all simulation events (even
rare ones) to occur many times (hundred to thousands of times if practical).
Problem Statement
A simulation model of the Green Machine Manufacturing Company (GMMC)
owned and operated by Mr. Robert Vaughn is shown in Figure L9.10. The interarrival time of jobs to the GMMC is constant at 1.175 minutes. Jobs require processing by each of the four machines. The processing time for a job at each green
machine is given in Table L9.2.
FIGURE L9.10
The layout of the Green Machine Manufacturing Company simulation model.

TABLE L9.2 Process Times at Green Machine Manufacturing Company

Activity

Process Time (minutes)

ProModel Format

Machine 1
Machine 2
Machine 3
Machine 4

Exponential with mean  1.0

Weibull with minimum  0.10,  5,  1
Weibull with minimum  0.25,  5,  1
Weibull with minimum  0.25,  5,  1

Wait E(1.0) min

Wait (0.10 + W(5,1)) min
Wait (0.25 + W(5,1)) min
Wait (0.25 + W(5,1)) min

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A plentiful amount of storage is provided for waiting jobs in front of each of

the green machines. Our task is to conduct a nonterminating simulation to estimate the time-average amount of work-in-process (WIP) inventory (the steadystate expected number of jobs in the system). A printout of the model is given in
Figure L9.11. The model is included on the CD accompanying the book under the
le name Lab 9_3 GreenMachine.MOD.

L9.3.1 Warm-up Time and Run Length

In this section we estimate the amount of time needed for the GMMC model to
warm up, and the amount of time to run the model past its warm-up period. We
rst declare a model variable called WIP to keep track of the work-in-process inventory in the simulated manufacturing system. Notice we are collecting statistics
only for the WIP variable and the entity. You should congure your model the
same and run the simulation 250 hours to produce a time-series plot of the WIP inventory levels (Figure L9.12(a)).
The simplest method for selecting the end of the warm-up phase is visual determination. In this method, we plot the simulation models output over time, as
illustrated in Figure L9.12(a), and then visually determine the point at which the
initial transient phase is over. In this example, it seems that the transient phase created by the initial condition of zero WIP inventory is over at around 20 hours.
Usually you will want to select a value beyond this to guard against underestimating the end of the warm-up phase. So we will pick 100 hours as the end of the
warm-up. Actually, you should not make this decision based on the output from
one replication of the simulation. We are doing this here to quickly illustrate the
need for allowing the model to warm up. We will use the preferred method to estimate the end of the warm-up phase in a moment.
In most nonterminating simulation models, the quality of the results substantially improves if we throw away the output generated during the warm-up phase
of the simulation. In Figure L9.12(a), the observations during the transient phase
of the rst 100 hours of the simulation are alleged to be articially low. As such,
we do not want them to bias our estimate of the time-average WIP inventory.
Therefore, in our next run of the GMMC simulation, we specify a warm-up
time of 100 hours (Figure L9.13). Notice how the simulation output during the
100-hour warm-up has been discarded in Figure L9.12(b). The discarded output
will no longer affect the observations reported in the simulation output.
The simplied process we just used to identify the end of the warm-up phase
should be avoided. The process can be substantially improved by running multiple replications of the simulation and then combining the time-series output from
each replication into an average time-series plot. Averaging the time-series data
from multiple replications together will help lter out the large uctuations (high
values from one replication are offset by small values from another replication)
and will give you a better estimate of the true but unknown time-series output. In
many cases, you may need to add an additional layer of ltering to smooth the
averaged time-series plot. This can be done by computing a Welch moving
average of the time-series data. Section 9.6.1 of Chapter 9 provides additional

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FIGURE L9.11
The simulation model of the Green Machine Manufacturing Company.

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FIGURE L9.12
Work-in-process (WIP) inventory value history for one replication of the GMMC simulation. (a) WIP value history
without warm-up phase removed. Statistics will be biased low by the transient WIP values. (b) WIP value history
with 100-hour warm-up phase removed. Statistics will not be biased low.

(a)

(b)

FIGURE L9.13
ProModels Simulation
Options window set for
a single replication
with a 100-hour warmup period followed by
a 150-hour run length.

details on this subject, and exercise 4 in Lab Chapter 11 illustrates how to use the
Welch method implemented in SimRunner.
Figure L9.14 was produced by SimRunner by recording the time-average
WIP levels of the GMMC simulation over successive one-hour time periods. The
results from each period were averaged across ve replications to produce the
raw data plot, which is the more erratic line that appears red on the computer
screen. A 54-period moving average (the smooth line that appears green on the

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FIGURE L9.14
SimRunner screen for estimating the end of the warm-up time.

computer) indicates that the end of the warm-up phase occurs between the 33rd
and 100th periods. Given that we need to avoid underestimating the warm-up, lets
declare 100 hours as the end of the warm-up time. We feel much more comfortable
basing our estimate of the warm-up time on ve replications. Notice that
SimRunner indicates that at least 10 replications are needed to estimate the average WIP to within a 7 percent error and a condence level of 90 percent using a
warm-up of 100 periods (hours). You will see how this was done with SimRunner
in Exercise 4 of Section L11.4 in Lab Chapter 11.
Why did we choose an initial run length of 250 hours to produce the timeseries plot in Figure L9.14? Well, you have to start with something, and we picked
250 hours. You can rerun the experiment with a longer run length if the timeseries plot, produced by averaging the output from several replications of the
simulation, does not indicate a steady-state condition. Long runs will help prevent

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you from wondering what the time-series plot looks like beyond the point at
which you stopped it. Do you wonder what our plot does beyond 250 hours?
Lets now direct our attention to answering the question of how long to run
the model past its warm-up time to estimate our steady-state statistic, mean WIP
inventory. We will somewhat arbitrarily pick 100 hours not because that is equal
to the warm-up time but because it will allow ample time for the simulation events
to happen thousands of times. In fact, the 100-hour duration will allow approximately 5,100 jobs to be processed per replication, which should give us decently
accurate results. How did we derive the estimate of 5,100 jobs processed per replication? With a 1.175-minute interarrival time of jobs to the system, 51 jobs arrive
per hour (60 minutes/1.175 minutes) to the system. Running the simulation for
100 hours should result in about 5,100 jobs (100 hours 51 jobs) exiting the system. You will want to check the number of Total Exits in the Entity Activity section of the ProModel output report that you just produced to verify this.

L9.3.2 Replications or Batch Intervals

We have a choice between running replications or batch intervals to estimate the
time-average WIP inventory. Replications are our favorite choice because we get
independent observations, guaranteed. Figure L9.15 illustrates how this is done in
ProModel as well as the specication of the 100 hours of run time beyond the
warm-up. Running the simulation for 10 replications produces the results in
Figure L9.16. We are approximately 90 percent condent that the true but unknown mean WIP inventory is between 17.64 and 21.09 jobs.

FIGURE L9.15
Specication of
warm-up hours and
run hours in the
Simulation Options
menu for running
replications.

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FIGURE L9.16
Ten replications of the Green Machine Manufacturing Company simulation using a 100-hour warm-up
and a 100-hour run length.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------General Report
Output from C:\Bowden Files\Word\McGraw 2nd Edition\GreenMachine.MOD
Date: Jul/16/2002
Time: 01:04:42 AM
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Scenario
: Normal Run
Replication
: All
Period
: Final Report (100 hr to 200 hr Elapsed: 100 hr)
Warmup Time
: 100
Simulation Time : 200 hr
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------VARIABLES
Average
Variable
Total
Minutes
Minimum
Maximum
Current
Average
Name
Changes
Per Change
Value
Value
Value
Value
----------------------------------------------WIP
10202
0.588
13
31
27
24.369 (Rep 1)
WIP
10198
0.588
9
32
29
18.928 (Rep 2)
WIP
10207
0.587
14
33
22
24.765 (Rep 3)
WIP
10214
0.587
10
26
22
18.551 (Rep 4)
WIP
10208
0.587
8
27
25
16.929 (Rep 5)
WIP
10216
0.587
13
27
17
19.470 (Rep 6)
WIP
10205
0.587
8
30
24
19.072 (Rep 7)
WIP
10215
0.587
8
25
14
15.636 (Rep 8)
WIP
10209
0.587
9
26
20
17.412 (Rep 9)
WIP
10209
0.587
11
27
24
18.504 (Rep 10)
WIP
10208.3
0.587
10.3
28.4
22.4
19.364 (Average)
WIP
5.735
0.0
2.311
2.836
4.501
2.973 (Std. Dev.)
WIP
10205
0.587
8.959
26.756
19.790
17.640 (90% C.I. Low)
WIP
10211.6
0.587
11.64
30.044
25.009
21.087 (90% C.I. High)

If we decide to make one single long run and divide it into batch intervals
to estimate the expected WIP inventory, we would select the Batch Mean option
in the Output Reporting section of the Simulation Options menu (Figure L9.17).
A guideline in Chapter 9 for making an initial assignment to the length of time
for each batch interval was to set the batch interval length to the simulation run
time you would use for replications, in this case 100 hours. Based on the guideline, the Simulation Options menu would be congured as shown in Figure
L9.17 and would produce the output in Figure L9.18. To get the output report to
display the results of all 10 batch intervals, you specify <All> Periods in the
General Report Type settings window (Figure L9.19). We are approximately
90 percent condent that the true but unknown mean WIP inventory is between
18.88 and 23.19 jobs. If we desire a smaller condence interval, we can increase
the sample size by extending the run length of the simulation in increments of
the batch interval length. For example, we would specify run hours of 1500 to
collect 15 observations of average WIP inventory. Try this and see if the condence interval becomes smaller. Note that increasing the batch interval length is
also helpful.

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FIGURE L9.17
Warm-up hours, run
hours, and batch
interval length in the
Simulation Options
menu for running
batch intervals. Note
that the time units are
specied on the batch
interval length.

FIGURE L9.18
Ten batch intervals of the Green Machine Manufacturing Company simulation using a 100-hour warm-up
and a 100-hour batch interval length.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------General Report
Output from C:\Bowden Files\Word\McGraw 2nd Edition\GreenMachine.MOD
Date: Jul/16/2002 Time: 01:24:24 AM
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Scenario
: Normal Run
Replication
: 1 of 1
Period
: All
Warmup Time
: 100 hr
Simulation Time : 1100 hr
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------VARIABLES
Average
Variable
Total
Minutes
Minimum
Maximum
Current
Average
Name
Changes
Per Change
Value
Value
Value
Value
----------------------------------------------WIP
10202
0.588
13
31
27
24.369 (Batch 1)
WIP
10215
0.587
16
29
26
23.082 (Batch 2)
WIP
10216
0.587
9
30
22
17.595 (Batch 3)
WIP
10218
0.587
13
30
16
22.553 (Batch 4)
WIP
10202
0.588
13
33
28
23.881 (Batch 5)
WIP
10215
0.587
17
37
25
27.335 (Batch 6)
WIP
10221
0.587
8
29
18
20.138 (Batch 7)
WIP
10208
0.587
10
26
22
17.786 (Batch 8)
WIP
10214
0.587
9
29
20
16.824 (Batch 9)
WIP
10222
0.586
9
23
12
16.810 (Batch 10)
WIP
10213.3
0.587
11.7
29.7
21.6
21.037 (Average)
WIP
7.103
0.0
3.164
3.743
5.168
3.714 (Std. Dev.)
WIP
10209.2
0.587
9.865
27.530
18.604
18.884 (90% C.I. Low)
WIP
10217.4
0.587
13.534
31.869
24.595
23.190 (90% C.I. High)

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FIGURE L9.19
ProModel General
Report Options set to
display the results
from all batch
intervals.

L9.3.3 Required Batch Interval Length

The worrisome part of the batch interval method is whether the batch interval is
long enough to acquire approximately independent observations. The word
approximately is emphasized because we know that the observations within a
simulation run are often autocorrelated (not independent). In fact, they are often
positively correlated, which would bias the sample standard deviation of the batch
means to the low side. And this would bias our estimate of the condence intervals half-width to the low side. We do not know if this is the case with our WIP
inventory observations. However, if it was the case and we were not aware of it,
we would think that our estimate of the mean WIP inventory was better than it really is. Therefore, we should do ourselves a favor and use Stat::Fit to check the
lag-1 autocorrelation of the observations before we interpret the results. To get a
decent estimate of the lag-1 autocorrelation, however, we need more than 10 observations. Section 9.6.2 of Chapter 9 stated that at least 100 observations are
necessary to get a reliable estimate of the lag-1 autocorrelation. So lets increase
the simulation run length to 10,000 hours and produce an output report with 100
observations of the time-average WIP inventory.
It would take a while to enter the 100 observations into Stat::Fit one at a time.
Therefore, save the ProModel output report with the results from the 100 batch intervals into a Microsoft Excel le format that can then be copied into the Stat::Fit
data table. The procedure is the same as used in Section L9.2.4 to enter the observations under the Current Value column from the VARIABLES sheet tab of
the Excel spreadsheet into Stat::Fitexcept that you are now entering the

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FIGURE L9.20
Stat::Fit Autocorrelation plot of the observations collected over 100 batch intervals. Lag-1
autocorrelation is within the 0.20 to +0.20 range.

observations under the Average Value column from the VARIABLES sheet tab of
the Excel spreadsheet into Stat::Fit.
Figure L9.20 illustrates the Stat::Fit results that you will want to verify. The
lag-1 autocorrelation value is the rst value plotted in Stat::Fits Autocorrelation
of Input Data plot. Note that the plot begins at lag-1 and continues to lag-20. For
this range of lag values, the highest autocorrelation is 0.192 and the lowest value
is 0.132 (see correlation(0.192, 0.132) at the bottom of the plot). Therefore,
we know that the lag-1 autocorrelation is within the 0.20 to +0.20 range recommended in Section 9.6.2 of Chapter 9, which is required before proceeding to
the nal step of rebatching the data into between 10 and 30 larger batches. We
have enough data to form 10 batches with a length of 1000 hours (10 batches at
1000 hours each equals 10,000 hours of simulation time, which we just did). The
results of rebatching the data in the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet are shown in
Table L9.3. Note that the rst batch mean of 21.037 in Table L9.3 is the average
of the rst 10 batch means that we originally collected. The second batch mean
of 19.401 is the average of the next 10 batch means and so on. The condence

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TABLE L9.3 Final Results of the 100 Batch Intervals

Combined into 10 Batch Intervals
WIP Average Value
21.037
19.401
21.119
20.288
20.330
20.410
22.379
22.024
19.930
22.233
20.915
1.023
20.322
21.508

(Batch 1)
(Batch 2)
(Batch 3)
(Batch 4)
(Batch 5)
(Batch 6)
(Batch 7)
(Batch 8)
(Batch 9)
(Batch 10)
(Average)
(Std. Dev.)
(90% C.I. Low)
(90% C.I. High)

interval is very narrow due to the long simulation time (1000 hours) of each batch.
The owner of GMMC, Mr. Robert Vaughn, should be very pleased with the precision of the time-average WIP inventory estimate.
The batch interval method requires a lot of work to get it right. Therefore, if
the time to simulate through the warm-up period is relatively short, the replications method should be used. Reserve the batch interval method for simulations
that require a very long time to reach steady state.

L9.4 Exercises
1. An average of 100 customers per hour arrive to the Picayune Mutual
Bank. It takes a teller an average of two minutes to serve a customer.
Interarrival and service times are exponentially distributed. The bank
currently has four tellers working. Bank manager Rich Gold wants to
compare the following two systems with regard to the average time
customers spend in the bank.
System #1

A separate queue is provided for each teller. Assume that customers

choose the shortest queue when entering the bank, and that customers
cannot jockey between queues (jump to another queue).
System #2

A single queue is provided for customers to wait for the rst available
teller.

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Assume that there is no move time within the queues. Run 15

replications of an eight-hour simulation to complete the following:
a. For each system, record the 90 percent condence interval using a
0.10 level of signicance for the average time customers spend in the
bank.
b. Estimate the number of replications needed to reduce the half-width
of each condence interval by 25 percent. Run the additional
replications for each system and compute new condence intervals
using a 0.10 level of signicance.
c. Based on the results from part b, would you recommend one system
over the other? Explain.
2. Rerun the simulation of the Green Machine Manufacturing Company
of Section L9.3 to produce 100 batch means with a 50-hour interval
length. Use a 100-hour warm-up. Check the lag-1 autocorrelation of the
100 time-average WIP observations to see if it falls between 0.20 and
+0.20. If it does not, increase the batch interval length by 50 percent
and continue the process until an acceptable lag-1 autocorrelation is
achieved. Once the lag-1 autocorrelation is acceptable, check to see if
the 100 observations are normally distributed. After that, rebatch the
100 observations into 20 batch means and compute a 95 percent
condence interval. Are you comfortable with the resulting condence
interval? Explain.
3. Use the simulation model created for the DumpOnMe facility presented
in Exercise 11 of Lab Section L7.12 to complete the following:
a. For a simulation run length of 60 minutes, record the 90 percent
condence interval for the scales average utilization based on
30 replications.
b. For a 60-minute warm-up and a 60-minute simulation run length
beyond the warm-up time, record the 90 percent condence interval
for the scales average utilization based on 30 replications.
c. Based only on the two condence intervals, do you think that a
warm-up period is necessary for the DumpOnMe model? Explain.
4. See Lab Chapter 11 for exercises involving the use of SimRunners
implementation of the Welch moving average technique.

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10 COMPARING
ALTERNATIVE SYSTEMS

The great tragedy of Sciencethe slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an

ugly fact.
Thomas H. Huxley

In this lab we see how ProModel is used with some of the statistical methods
presented in Chapter 10 to compare alternative designs of a system with the goal
of identifying the superior system relative to some performance measure. We
will also learn how to program ProModel to use common random numbers
(CRN) to drive the simulation models that represent alternative designs for the
systems being compared. The use of CRN allows us to run the opposing simulations under identical experimental conditions to facilitate an objective evaluation
of the systems.

L10.1 Overview of Statistical Methods

Often we want to compare alternative designs of a system. For example, we may
wish to compare two different material handling systems, production scheduling
rules, plant layouts, or stafng schedules to determine which yields better results.
We compare the two alternative system designs based on a certain measure of
performancefor example, production rate, number of customers served, time in
system, or waiting time for service. The comparison is based on the estimates of the
expected value of the performance measure that we derive from simulating the
alternative system designs. If the estimates provide evidence that the performances
of the two alternative simulation models are not equal, we can justify picking the
alternative that produced the better estimate as the best alternative.
Chapter 10 covers the paired-t condence interval method and the Welch
condence interval method for testing hypotheses about two alternatives. The
543

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Bonferroni approach is used for comparing from three to about ve alternatives.

Either the Welch method or paired-t method is used with the Bonferroni approach
to make the comparisons. The Bonferroni approach does not identify the best
alternative but rather identies which pairs of alternatives perform differently.
This information is helpful for identifying the better alternatives, if in fact there is
a signicant difference in the performance of the competing alternatives.
Chapter 10 recommends that the technique of analysis of variance (ANOVA)
be used when more than about ve alternative system designs are being compared. The rst step in ANOVA is to evaluate the hypothesis that the mean performances of the systems are equal against the alternative hypothesis that at least
one pair of the means is different. To gure out which means differ from which
other ones, a multiple comparison test is used. There are several multiple comparison tests available, and Chapter 10 presents the Fishers protected least
signicant difference (LSD) test.
The decision to use paired-t condence intervals, Welch condence intervals,
the Bonferroni approach, or ANOVA with protected LSD depends on the statistical requirements placed on the data (observations from the simulations) by the
procedure. In fact, simulation observations produced using common random
numbers (CRN) cannot be used with the Welch condence interval method or the
technique of ANOVA. Please see Chapter 10 for details.
In this lab we will use the paired-t condence interval method because it
places the fewest statistical requirements on the observations collected from the
simulation model. Therefore, we are less likely to get into trouble with faulty assumptions about our data (observations) when making decision based on paired-t
condence intervals. Furthermore, one of the main purposes of this lab is to
demonstrate how the CRN technique is implemented using ProModel. Out of the
comparison procedures of Chapter 10, only the ones based on paired-t condence
intervals can be used in conjunction with the CRN technique.

L10.2 Three Alternative Systems

Problem Statement
The analysis of the Spuds-n-More by the Seashore restaurant started in Section L9.2 of Lab Chapter 9 will be completed in this lab. The details of the system
and objective for the study are reviewed here. Spuds-n-More, a takeout fast-food
restaurant, is a favorite among vacationers at a seaside resort. Customers walking
along the boardwalk access the restaurant via a single ordering window, where
they place their orders, pay, and receive their food. There is no seating in the
restaurant. The interarrival time of customers to Spuds-n-More is exponentially
distributed with a mean of six minutes. The activity times are given in Table L9.1.
The waiting area in front of the walkup window can accommodate only ve customers. If the waiting area is lled to capacity when a customer arrives, the
customer bypasses Spuds-n-More. Mr. Taylor closes the entry to the waiting area
in front of his restaurant after eight hours of operation. However, any customers

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already in the waiting area by closing time are served before the kitchen shuts
down for the day.
Mr. Taylor is thinking about expanding into the small newspaper stand next
to Spuds-n-More, which has been abandoned. This would allow him to add a
second window to serve his customers. The rst window would be used for taking
orders and collecting payments, and the second window would be used for lling
orders. Before investing in the new space, however, Mr. Taylor needs to convince
the major stockholder of Spuds-n-More, Pritchard Enterprises, that the investment
would allow the restaurant to serve more customers per day.
A baseline (as-is) model of the current restaurant conguration was developed and validated in Section L9.2 of Lab Chapter 9. See Figures L9.1 and L9.2
for the layout of the baseline model and the printout of the ProModel model. Our
task is to build a model of the proposed restaurant with a second window to determine if the proposed design would serve more customers per day than does the
current restaurant. Lets call the baseline model Spuds-n-More1 and the proposed
model Spuds-n-More2. The model is included on the CD accompanying the book
under le name Lab 10_2 Spuds-n-More2.MOD.
The ProModel simulation layout of Spuds-n-More2 is shown in Figure L10.1, and the ProModel printout is given in Figure L10.2. After customers
wait in the order queue (location Order_Q) for their turn to order, they move to the
rst window to place their orders and pay the order clerk (location Order_Clerk).
Next customers proceed to the pickup queue (location Pickup_Q) to wait for their
turn to be served by the pickup clerk (Pickup_Clerk) at the second window. There

FIGURE L10.1
Layout of Spuds-nMore2 simulation
model.

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FIGURE L10.2
The Spuds-n-More2 simulation model.

is enough space for one customer in the pickup queue. The pickup clerk processes
one order at a time.
As the Spuds-n-More2 model was being built, Mr. Taylor determined that for
additional expense he could have a carpenter space the two customer service windows far enough apart to accommodate up to three customers in the order pickup
queue. Therefore, he requested that a third alternative design with an order pickup
queue capacity of three be simulated. To do this, we only need to change the

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capacity of the pickup queue from one to three in our Spuds-n-More2 model. We
shall call this model Spuds-n-More3. Note that for our Spuds-n-More2 and
Spuds-n-More3 models, we assigned a length of 25 feet to the Order_Q, a length
of 12 feet to the Pickup_Q, and a Customer entity travel speed of 150 feet per
minute. These values affect the entitys travel time in the queues (time for a customer to walk to the end of the queues) and are required to match the results presented in this lab.

L10.3 Common Random Numbers

Lets conduct the analysis for Mr. Taylor using Common Random Numbers
(CRN). The CRN technique provides a way of comparing alternative system
designs under more equal experimental conditions. This is helpful in ensuring
that the observed differences in the performance of system designs are due to the
differences in the designs and not to differences in experimental conditions. The
goal is to evaluate each system under the exact same set of circumstances to
ensure that a fair comparison is made. Therefore, the simulation of each alternative system design is driven by the same stream of random numbers to ensure that
the differences in key performance measures are due only to differences in the
alternative designs and not because some designs were simulated with a stream
of random numbers that produced more extreme conditions. Thus we need to use
the exact same random number from the random number stream for the exact
same purpose in each simulated system. A common practice that helps to keep
random numbers synchronized across systems is to assign a different random
number stream to each stochastic element in the model. For this reason,
ProModel provides 100 unique streams (Stream 1 to Stream 100) of random
numbers for generating random variates from the statistical distributions available in the software.
The Spuds-n-More models use observations (random variates) from an exponential distribution for the customer interarrival time, order time, order payment
time, and order pickup time. For CRN, in this example we can use Stream 1 to
generate interarrival times, Stream 2 to generate order times, Stream 3 to generate
payment times, and Stream 4 to generate pickup times. The ProModel function for
generating random variates from the exponential distribution is E(a, stream), where
the parameter a is the mean of the random variable and the parameter stream is the
ProModel stream number between 1 and 100. All ProModel distribution functions
include the stream parameter as the last parameter of the function. The stream
parameter is optional (you do not have to specify a value). If you do not provide a
value for the stream parameter, ProModel uses stream
1 to generate observations
(random variates) from the specied distribution. Figure L10.3 illustrates the
desired assignment of random number streams in the processing and arrivals
section of a Spuds-n-More model. Congure all three of your Spuds-n-More
models accordingly.

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FIGURE L10.3
Unique random number streams assigned to the Spuds-n-More model.

L10.4 Bonferroni Approach with Paired-t Condence Intervals

Our objective is to compare the performance of the three alternative Spuds-n-More
restaurant designs with respect to the number of customers processed per day. Let
i represent the true number of customers processed per day by restaurant design
i, where i
1 denotes Spuds-n-More1, i
2 denotes Spuds-n-More2, and i = 3
denotes Spuds-n-More3. Specically, we wish to evaluate the hypotheses
H0 : 1 = 2 = 3
H1 : 1 =
 2 or 1 = 3 or 2 = 3
at the = 0.06 signicance level. To evaluate these hypotheses, we estimate the
number of customers processed by each restaurant design by simulating each design for 25 days (25 replications). The simulations are to be driven by Common
Random Numbers (CRN). Therefore, select the CRN option in the bottom right
corner of the Simulation Options window before running the simulations (Figure L10.4). This option helps to synchronize the use of random numbers across
the three simulated systems. When the option is selected, ProModel starts each
replication at predetermined locations on the random number streams. At the end
of a replication, ProModel advances to the next set of predetermined locations on
the streams before starting the next replication. Even if one model uses more random numbers than another during a replication, both models will begin the next
replication from the same positions on the random number streams. The numbers
of customers processed by each restaurant design for 25 replications using the
CRN option are shown in Table L10.1.

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Comparing Alternative Systems

FIGURE L10.4
ProModels Simulation
Options set to run
25 replications using
Common Random
Numbers.

TABLE L10.1 Comparison of the Three Restaurant Designs Based on Paired Differences
(A)

(C)
Spuds-n-More2
Customers
Processed
x2 j

(D)
Spuds-n-More3
Customers
Processed
x3 j

(E)

(F)

(G)

Rep.
(j)

(B)
Spuds-n-More1
Customers
Processed
x1 j

Difference
(B C)
x(12) j

Difference
(B D)
x(13) j

Difference
(C D)
x(23) j

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

60
57
58
53
54
56
57
55
61
60
56
66
64
58
65
56
60
55
57
50
59
58
58
56
53

72
79
84
69
67
72
70
65
84
76
66
87
77
66
85
78
72
75
78
69
74
73
71
70
68

75
81
88
72
69
74
71
65
84
76
70
90
79
66
89
83
72
77
78
70
77
76
76
72
69

12
22
26
16
13
16
13
10
23
16
10
21
13
8
20
22
12
20
21
19
15
15
13
14
15

15
24
30
19
15
18
14
10
23
16
14
24
15
8
24
27
12
22
21
20
18
18
18
16
16

3
2
4
3
2
2
1
0
0
0
4
3
2
0
4
5
0
2
0
1
3
3
5
2
1

16.20
4.66

18.28
5.23

2.08
1.61

Sample mean x(ii  ), for all i and i  between 1 and 3, with i < i 
Sample standard dev s(ii  ), for all i and i  between 1 and 3, with i < i 

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The Bonferroni approach with paired-t condence intervals is used to evaluate our hypotheses for the three alternative designs for the restaurant. The evaluation of the three restaurant designs requires that three pairwise comparisons be
made:
Spuds-n-More1 vs. Spuds-n-More2
Spuds-n-More1 vs. Spuds-n-More3
Spuds-n-More2 vs. Spuds-n-More3
Following the procedure described in Section 10.4.1 of Chapter 10 for the
Bonferroni approach, we begin constructing the required three paired-t condence intervals by letting 1 = 2 = 3 = /3 = 0.06/3 = 0.02.
The computation of the three paired-t condence intervals follows:
Spuds-n-More1 vs. Spuds-n-More2 ((12))
1 = 0.02
tn1,1 /2 = t24,0.01 = 2.485 from Appendix B
(2.485)4.66
(t24,0.01 )s(12)
=
hw =
= 2.32 customers

n
25
The approximate 98 percent condence interval is
x(12) hw (12) x(12) + hw
16.20 2.32 (12) 16.20 + 2.32
18.52 (12) 13.88
Spuds-n-More1 vs. Spuds-n-More3 ((13))
2 = 0.02
tn1,2 /2 = t24,0.01 = 2.485 from Appendix B
hw =

(t24,0.01 )s(13)
(2.485)5.23
=
= 2.60 customers

n
25

The approximate 98 percent condence interval is

x(13) hw (13) x(13) + hw
18.28 2.60 (13) 18.28 + 2.60
20.88 (13) 15.68
Spuds-n-More2 vs. Spuds-n-More3 ((23))
The approximate 98 percent condence interval is
2.88 (23) 1.28
Given that the condence interval for (12) excludes zero, we conclude that
there is a signicant difference in the mean number of customers processed by the

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current as-is restaurant Spuds-n-More1 and the proposed Spuds-n-More2

design. The condence interval further suggests that Spuds-n-More2 processes an
estimated 13.88 to 18.52 more customers per day on average than does Spuds-nMore1. Likewise, there is a signicant difference in the mean number of
customers processed by Spuds-n-More1 and Spuds-n-More3. The proposed
Spuds-n-More3 processes an estimated 15.68 to 20.88 more customers per day on
average than does Spuds-n-More1. The third condence interval suggests that the
difference between Spuds-n-More2 and Spuds-n-More3, although statistically
signicant, is fairly small with Spuds-n-More3 processing an estimated 1.28 to
2.88 more customers per day on average than does Spuds-n-More2.
With = 0.06 the overall condence for our conclusions is approximately
94 percent. Based on these results we are justied in concluding that both of the
new designs (Spuds-n-More2 and Spuds-n-More3) serve more customers per day
than does the current as-is restaurant. It appears that Spuds-n-More3 is not that
much better than Spuds-n-More2 from a customer service rate perspective.
Perhaps we will advise Mr. Taylor to request funding from the restaurants stockholders to implement the Spuds-n-More2 design because the condence interval
suggests that it processes an estimated 14 to 19 more customers per day than does
the current restaurant. The extra expense of Spuds-n-More3 above the implementation cost of Spuds-n-More2 for spacing the order and pickup windows farther
apart will probably not be offset by the extra income from processing only an
estimated 1 to 3 more customers per day.
In the rst exercise problem in the next section, we will nd out how much of
a reduction, if any, we achieved in the half-widths of the condence intervals by
using the CRN technique. Theoretically, the CRN technique produces a positive
correlation between the observations in columns B, C, and D of Table L10.1.
The positive correlation reduces the value of the sample standard deviation of the
observations in the difference columns (columns E, F, and G of Table L10.1). The
smaller standard deviation results in a smaller condence interval half-width
(a more precise statement). This is important because, for example, if the third condence interval was 10.93 (23) 1.79, which suggests that Spuds-nMore3 processes an estimated 1.79 to 10.93 more customers per day on average
than does Spuds-n-More2, then we may not be so quick to rule out Spuds-n-More3
as a serious competitor to Spuds-n-More2 due to the greater range of the condence interval.

L10.5 Exercises
1. Without using the Common Random Numbers (CRN) technique,
compare the Spuds-n-More1, Spuds-n-More2, and Spuds-n-More3
models with respect to the average number of customers served per day.
To avoid the use of CRN, assign ProModel Stream 1 to each stochastic
element in the model and do not select the CRN option from the

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Simulation Options menu. Simulate each of the three restaurants for 25

replications.
a. Use the Bonferroni approach with an overall signicance level of
0.06, and construct the condence intervals using the paired-t method.
How do the half-widths of the condence intervals compare to the
ones computed in Section L10.4? Are the differences in half-widths
what you expected? Explain.
b. Use the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique with the Fishers
protected Least Signicant Difference (LSD) test to compare the three
systems. Use a 0.05 signicance level. Explain any differences
between your conclusions here and those made in Section L10.4
about the three systems.
2. Increase the capacity of the Pickup_Q location in the Spuds-n-More3
model from three to six. Call this model Spuds-n-More4. Using the
Common Random Numbers (CRN) technique with ProModel Streams
1, 2, 3, and 4 assigned as in Figure L10.3, see if Spuds-n-More4 processes
more customers per day on average than does Spuds-n-More3. Use a
paired-t condence interval with a 0.02 signicance level. Run each
simulation model for 25 replications.
3. For the Picayune Mutual Bank (Exercise 1 of Section L9.4), run
15 eight-hour replications of each alternative system design with the
objective of identifying which design minimizes the average time
customers spend in the bank. Use the Welch condence interval method
with a 0.10 level of signicance to make the comparison. Contrast this
comparison with the ballpark guess you made in Section L9.4.
4. The DumpOnMe facility presented in Exercise 11 of Lab Section L7.12
operates with six dump trucks. The owner of the facility wants to
increase the amount of coal hauled to the railroad. The loader operators
recommend adding two more trucks for a total of eight trucks. Not to
be outdone, the scale operator recommends running the operation with
10 trucks. Trucks are expensive, so the owner hires you to simulate the
system as is and then with the additional trucks before making her
decision. Since each truck hauls approximately the same amount of
coal, you will determine which alternative delivers the most coal to the
railroad by evaluating the number of trucks processed by the scale. To
compare the performance of the 6-, 8-, and 10-truck systems, run ve
replications of each alternative system using a 100-minute warm-up time
followed by a 480-minute simulation run length beyond the warm-up
time. Use the Welch condence interval method with a 0.06 level of
signicance to make the comparison. Who is correct, the loader operators
or the scale operator? Are you a little surprised by the answer? Look over
the output reports from the simulations to nd an explanation for the
answer.

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11 SIMULATION
OPTIMIZATION
WITH SIMRUNNER

Climb mountains to see lowlands.

Chinese Proverb

The purpose of this lab is to demonstrate how to solve simulation-based optimization problems using SimRunner. The lab introduces the ve major steps for
formulating and solving optimization problems with SimRunner. After stepping
through an example application of SimRunner, we provide additional application
scenarios to help you gain experience using the software.

L11.1 Introduction to SimRunner

When you conduct an analysis using SimRunner, you build and run projects. With
each project, SimRunner applies its evolutionary algorithms to your simulation
model to seek optimal values for multiple decision variables. In SimRunner, decision variables are called input factors (Figure L11.1). For each project, you will
need to give SimRunner a model to optimize, identify which input factors to
change, and dene how to measure system performance using an objective function. The following describes the terminology and procedure used to conduct
experiments using SimRunner.
Step 1. Create, verify, and validate a simulation model using ProModel, MedModel, or ServiceModel. Next, create a macro and include it in the run-time
interface for each input factor that is believed to inuence the output of the simulation model. The input factors are the variables for which you are seeking optimal values, such as the number of nurses assigned to a shift or the number of
machines to be placed in a work cell. Note that SimRunner can test only those
factors identied as macros in ProModel, MedModel, or ServiceModel.
553

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FIGURE L11.1
Relationship between
SimRunners
optimization
algorithms and
ProModel simulation
model.

Optimization
Algorithms

Simulation
Optimization
Input Factors

Response (Objective Function)

Step 2. Create a new SimRunner project and select the input factors you wish to
test. For each input factor, dene its numeric data type (integer or real) and its
lower bound (lowest possible value) and upper bound (highest possible value).
SimRunner will generate solutions by varying the values of the input factors according to their data type, lower bounds, and upper bounds. Care should be taken
when dening the lower and upper bounds of the input factors to ensure that a
combination of values will not be created that leads to a solution that was not
envisioned when the model was built.
Step 3. After selecting the input factors, dene an objective function to
measure the utility of the solutions tested by SimRunner. The objective function
is built using terms taken from the output report generated at the end of the
simulation run. For example, the objective function could be based on entity
statistics, location statistics, resource statistics, variable statistics, and so forth.
In designing the objective function, the user species whether a term is to be
minimized or maximized as well as the overall weighting of that term in the
objective function. Some terms may be more important than other terms to the
decision maker. SimRunner also allows you to seek a target value for an objective function term.
Step 4. Select the optimization prole and begin the search by starting the
optimization algorithms. The optimization prole sets the size of the evolutionary
algorithms population. The population size denes the number of solutions evaluated by the algorithm during each generation of its search. SimRunner provides

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FIGURE L11.2
Generally, the larger the size of the population the better the result.

Max f(x)
Cautious
Moderate
Aggressive

Time

three population sizes: small, medium, and large. The small population size corresponds to the aggressive optimization prole, the medium population size corresponds to the moderate optimization prole, and the large population size corresponds to the cautious prole. In general, as the population size is increased, the
likelihood that SimRunner will nd the optimal solution increases, as does the
time required to conduct the search (Figure L11.2).
Step 5. Study the top solutions found by SimRunner and pick the best. SimRunner
will show the user the data from all experiments conducted and will rank each
solution based on its utility, as measured by the objective function. Remember that
the value of an objective function is a random variable because it is produced from
the output of a stochastic simulation model. Therefore, be sure that each experiment
is replicated an appropriate number of times during the optimization.
Another point to keep in mind is that the list of solutions presented by
SimRunner represents a rich source of information about the behavior, or response
surface, of the simulation model. SimRunner can sort and graph the solutions
many different ways to help you interpret the meaning of the data.

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L11.2 SimRunner Projects

Problem Statement
Prosperity Company has selected what it thinks is the ideal product to manufacture and has also designed the ideal production system (see Figure L11.3).
Plates of raw material arrive to the ideal production system and are transformed
into gears by a milling operation. The time between arrivals of plates is exponentially distributed, as is the processing time at the milling machine. Plates are
processed in a rst-in, rst-out (FIFO) fashion. The time to move material
between the pallets and the milling machine is negligible. The input and output
queues have innite capacities and the milling machine never fails or requires
maintenance. It is the ideal production system. However, we have been asked to
look for optimal operational parameters under three different scenarios.
We begin by building a simulation model of the ideal production system. Set
the default time units to minutes in the General Information dialog box. The
model consists of three locations: InputPalletQueue, MillingMachine, and
OutputPalletQueue. Set the capacity of the InputPalletQueue to innity (Inf) and
the capacity of the milling machine and OutputPalletQueue to one. For simplicity,
use a single entity type to represent both plates and gears. Assign Gear as the
name of the entity. The parameters for the exponentially distributed time between
arrivals and processing time will be given later. For now, set the models run hours
to 250 and warm-up hours to 50. The complete model is shown in Figure L11.4.
The model is included on the CD accompanying the book under le name
Lab 11_2 ProsperityCo.Mod.
Before continuing, we would like to point out that this ctitious production
system was chosen for its simplicity. The system is not complex, nor are the
example application scenarios that follow. This deliberate choice will allow us to
FIGURE L11.3
The ideal production
system for Prosperity
Company.

Ideal Production System

Milling Machine

Input Queue

Output Queue

Infinite queue capacity

Raw materials are plentiful
Milling Machine never fails

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FIGURE L11.4
ProModel model of Prosperity Company.

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focus on learning about the SimRunner software as opposed to getting bogged

down in modeling details. Additionally, the problems that are presented are easily
solved using queuing theory. Therefore, if so inclined, you may want to compare
the estimates obtained by SimRunner and ProModel with the actual values
obtained using queuing theory. In the real world, we seldom have such opportunities. We can take refuge in knowing that ProModel and SimRunner are robust
tools that can be effectively applied to both trivial and complex real-world problems, as was demonstrated in Chapter 11.

L11.2.1 Single Term Objective Functions

In the rst scenario, the average time between arrivals of a plate of raw material to
the input pallet queue is E(3.0) minutes. For this scenario, our objective is to nd
a value for the mean processing time at the milling machine that minimizes the
average number of plates waiting at the input pallet queue. (We have a great deal
of latitude when it comes to adjusting processing times for the ideal production
system.) To do this, we will create a macro in ProModel that represents the mean
processing time and give it an identication of ProcessTime. Thus, the processing
time for entities at the milling machine is modeled as E(ProcessTime) minutes.
See Operation eld for the MillingMachine location in Figure L11.4.
Before continuing, lets cheat by taking a moment to look at how varying the
mean processing time affects the mean number of plates waiting in the input pallet
queue. The plot would resemble the one appearing in Figure L11.5. Therefore, we
can minimize the average number of plates waiting in the queue by setting the

FIGURE L11.5

Response Surface
100

Location (Queue) Contents

90
80

No. in Queue

Relationship between
the mean processing
time and the mean
number of entities
waiting in the queue
given a mean time
between arrivals of
three.

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
0

1.5

Process Time

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FIGURE L11.6
ProModel macro editor.

mean processing time of the milling machine to zero minutes, which of course is
a theoretical value. For complex systems, you would not normally know the
answer in advance, but it will be fun to see how SimRunner moves through this
known response surface as it seeks the optimal solution.
The rst step in the ve-step process for setting up a SimRunner project is to
dene the macros and their Run-Time Interface (RTI) in the simulation model. In
addition to dening ProcessTime as a macro (Figure L11.6), we shall also dene
the time between arrivals (TBA) of plates to the system as a macro to be used
later in the second scenario that management has asked us to look into. The identication for this macro is entered as TBA. Be sure to set each macros Text . . .
value as shown in Figure L11.6. The Text value is the default value of the macro.
In this case, the default value for ProcessTime is 2 and the default value of
TBA is 3. If you have difculty creating the macros or their RTI, please see Lab
Chapter 14.
Next we activate SimRunner from ProModels Simulation menu. SimRunner
opens in the Setup Project mode (Figure L11.7). The rst step in the Setup Project
module is to select a model to optimize or to select an existing optimization project
(the results of a prior SimRunner session). For this scenario, we are optimizing a

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FIGURE L11.7
The opening SimRunner screen.

model for the rst time. Launching SimRunner from the ProModel Simulation
menu will automatically load the model you are working on into SimRunner. See
the model le name loaded in the box under Create new projectSelect model
in Figure 11.7. Note that the authors named their model ProsperityCo.Mod.
With the model loaded, the input factors and objective function are dened to
complete the Setup Project module. Before doing so, however, lets take a
moment to review SimRunners features and user interface. After completing the
Setup Project module, you would next run either the Analyze Model module or
the Optimize Model module. The Analyze Model module helps you determine the
number of replications to run to estimate the expected value of performance
measures and/or to determine the end of a models warm-up period using the
techniques described in Chapter 9. The Optimize Model module automatically
seeks the values for the input factors that optimize the objective function using the
techniques described in Chapter 11. You can navigate through SimRunner by
selecting items from the menus across the top of the window and along the left

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FIGURE L11.8
Single term objective function setup for scenario one.

side of the window or by clicking the <Previous or Next> buttons near the bottom
right corner of the window.
Clicking the Next> button takes you to the section for dening the objective
function. The objective function, illustrated in Figure L11.8, indicates the desire
to minimize the average contents (in this case, plates) that wait in the location
called InputPalletQue. The InputPalletQue is a location category. Therefore, to
enter this objective, we select Location from the Response Category list under
Performance Measures by clicking on Location. This will cause SimRunner to
display the list of location statistics in the Response Statistic area. Click on the
response statistic InputPalletQueAverageContents and then press the button
below with the down arrows. This adds the statistic to the list of response statistics selected for the objective function. The default objective for each response
statistic is maximize. In this example, however, we wish to minimize the average
contents of the input pallet queue. Therefore, click on Location:Max:1*InputPalletQueAverageContents, which appears under the area labeled Response

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Statistics Selected for the Objective Function; change the objective for the
response statistic to Min; and click the Update button. Note that we accepted the
default value of one for the weight of the factor. Please refer to the SimRunner
Users Guide if you have difculty performing this step.
Clicking the Next> button takes you to the section for dening the input
factors. The list of possible input factors (macros) to optimize is displayed at the
top of this section under Macros Available for Input (Figure L11.9). The input
factor to be optimized in this scenario is the mean processing time of the milling
machine, ProcessTime. Select this macro by clicking on it and then clicking the
button below with the down arrows. This moves the ProcessTime macro to the list
of Macros Selected as Input Factors (Figure L11.9). Next, indicate that you want
to consider integer values between one and ve for the ProcessTime macro.
Ignore the default value of 2.00. If you wish to change the data type or lower and
upper bounds, click on the input factor, make the desired changes, and click the
Update button. Please note that an input factor is designated as an integer when

FIGURE L11.9
Single input factor setup for scenario one.

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the lower and upper bounds appear without a decimal point in the Macros properties section. When complete, SimRunner should look like Figure L11.9.
From here, you click the Next> button until you enter the Optimize Model
module, or click on the Optimize Model module button near the top right corner
of the window to go directly to it. The rst step here is to specify Optimization options (Figure L11.10). Select the Aggressive Optimization Prole. Accept the default value of 0.01 for Convergence Percentage, the default of one for Min Generations, and the default of 99999 for Max Generations.
The convergence percentage, minimum number of generations, and maximum number of generations control how long SimRunners optimization algorithms will run experiments before stopping. With each experiment, SimRunner
records the objective functions value for a solution in the population. The evaluation of all solutions in the population marks the completion of a generation. The
maximum number of generations species the most generations SimRunner will

FIGURE L11.10
Optimization and simulation options.

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use to conduct its search for the optimal solution. The minimum number of
generations species the fewest generations SimRunner will use to conduct its
search for the optimal solution. At the end of a generation, SimRunner computes
the populations average objective function value and compares it with the populations best (highest) objective function value. When the best and the average are
at or near the same value at the end of a generation, all the solutions in the
population are beginning to look alike (their input factors are converging to
the same setting). It is difcult for the algorithms to locate a better solution to the
problem once the population of solutions has converged. Therefore, the optimization algorithms search is usually terminated at this point.
The convergence percentage controls how close the best and the average
must be to each other before the optimization stops. A convergence percentage
near zero means that the average and the best must be nearly equal before the
optimization stops. A high percentage value will stop the search early, while a
very small percentage value will run the optimization longer. High values for the
maximum number of generations allow SimRunner to run until it satises the
convergence percentage. If you want to force SimRunner to continue searching
after the convergence percentage is satised, specify very high values for both
the minimum number of generations and maximum number of generations.
Generally, the best approach is to accept the default values shown in Figure L11.10 for the convergence percentage, maximum generations, and minimum generations.
After you specify the optimization options, set the simulation options. Typically you will want to disable the animation as shown in Figure L11.10 to make
the simulation run faster. Usually you will want to run more than one replication
to estimate the expected value of the objective function for a solution in the population. When more than one replication is specied, SimRunner will display the
objective functions condence interval for each solution it evaluates. Note that
the condence level for the condence interval is specied here. Condence
intervals can help you to make better decisions at the end of an optimization as
discussed in Section 11.6.2 of Chapter 11. In this case, however, use one replication to speed things along so that you can continue learning other features of the
SimRunner software. As an exercise, you should revisit the problem and determine an acceptable number of replications to run per experiment. As indicated in
Figure L11.10, set the simulation warm-up time to 50 hours and the simulation
run time to 250 hours. You are now ready to have SimRunner seek the optimal
solution to the problem.
With these operations completed, click the Next> button (Figure L11.10) and
then click the Run button on the Optimize Model module (Figure L11.11) to start the
optimization. For this scenario, SimRunner runs all possible experiments, locating
the optimum processing time of one minute on its third experiment. The Experimental Results table shown in Figure L11.11 records the history of SimRunners
search. The rst solution SimRunner evaluated called for a mean processing time at
the milling machine of three minutes. The second solution evaluated assigned a
processing time of two minutes. These sequence numbers are recorded in the

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FIGURE L11.11
Experimental results table for scenario one.

Experiment column, and the values for the processing time (ProcessTime) input
factor are recorded in the ProcessTime column. The value of the term used to dene
the objective function (minimize the mean number of plates waiting in the input
pallet queue) is recorded in the InputPalletQue:AverageContents column. This
value is taken from the output report generated at the end of a simulation. Therefore,
for the third experiment, we can see that setting the ProcessTime macro equal to one
results in an average of 0.162 plates waiting in the input pallet queue. If you were to
conduct this experiment manually with ProModel, you would set the ProcessTime
macro to one, run the simulation, display output results at the end of the run, and
read the average contents for the InputPalletQue location from the report. You may
want to verify this as an exercise.
Because the objective function was to minimize the mean number of plates
waiting in the input pallet queue, the same values from the InputPalletQue:AverageContents column also appear in the Objective Function column. However, notice
that the values in the Objective Function column are preceded by a negative sign

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FIGURE L11.12
SimRunners process for converting minimization problems to maximization problems.

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10

Location (Queue) Contents

1 x Contents

1.5

-1 x Contents

-50

-100
-110
0

1.5

Process Time

(Figure L11.11). This has to do with the way SimRunner treats a minimization
objective. SimRunners optimization algorithms view all problems as maximization
problems. Therefore, if we want to minimize a term called Contents in an objective
function, SimRunner multiplies the term by a negative one {(1)Contents}. Thus
SimRunner seeks the minimal value by seeking the maximum negative value.
Figure L11.12 illustrates this for the ideal production systems response surface.
Figure L11.13 illustrates SimRunners Performance Measures Plot for this
optimization project. The darker colored line (which appears red on the computer
screen) at the top of the Performance Measures Plot represents the best value of
the objective function found by SimRunner as it seeks the optimum. The lighter
colored line (which appears green on the computer screen) represents the value of
the objective function for all of the solutions that SimRunner tried.
The last menu item of the Optimize Model module is the Response Plot
(Figure L11.11), which is a plot of the models output response surface based on
the solutions evaluated during the search. We will skip this feature for now and
cover it at the end of the lab chapter.

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FIGURE L11.13
SimRunners
Performance Plot
indicates the progress
of the optimization for
scenario one.

L11.2.2 Multiterm Objective Functions

Objective functions may be composed of any number of terms taken from the output of a simulation model. This application scenario demonstrates the construction of an objective function with two terms.
The managers of the ideal production system presented in Section L11.2.1
have a not-so-ideal objective for the system. They have conicting objectives of
(1) maximizing the number of gears produced and (2) minimizing the amount of
space allocated for storing work-in-process at the input pallet queue area. Because
space has to be available for the maximum number of plates that could wait in the
queue, the second objective can be restated as minimizing the maximum number
of plates waiting at the input pallet queue. In attempting to satisfy the managers
objectives, both the mean processing time at the milling machine (ProcessTime)
and the mean time between arrivals (TBA) of plates to the input pallet queue can
be varied. Each of these input factors can be assigned integer values between one
and ve minutes. To allow SimRunner to change the mean time between arrivals
(TBA) in the simulation model, enter E(TBA) in the Frequency column of the
models Arrivals table (Figure L11.4). Remember that you previously dened
TBA as a macro.
The SimRunner objective function for this scenario is shown in Figure
L11.14. The rst segment of the objective function can be implemented using the
output response statistic that records the total number of gear entities that exit the
system (Gear:TotalExits), which is an Entity response category. The second segment is implemented using the output response statistic that records the maximum
number of plate entities that occupied the input pallet queue location during the
simulation (InputPalletQue:MaximumContents), which is a Location response

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FIGURE L11.14
Multiterm objective function for scenario two.

category. Management has indicated that a fairly high priority should be assigned
to minimizing the space required for the input pallet queue area. Therefore, a
weight of 100 is assigned to the second term in the objective function and a weight
of one is assigned to the rst term. Thus the objective function consists of the following two terms:
and

Maximize [(1)(Gear:TotalExits)]
Minimize [(100)(InputPalletQue:Maximum Contents)]

SimRunner minimizes terms by rst multiplying each minimization term

appearing in the objective function by a negative one, as explained in Section
L11.2.1. Similarly, SimRunner multiplies each maximization term by a positive
one. Next the terms are arranged into a linear combination as follows:
(+1)[(1)(Gear:TotalExits)] + (1)[(100)(InputPalletQue:MaximumContents)]
which reduces to
[(1)(Gear:TotalExits)] + [(100)(InputPalletQue:MaximumContents)]

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Given that SimRunners optimization algorithms view all problems as maximization problems, the objective function F becomes
F = Maximize {[(1)(Gear:TotalExits)]
+ [(100)(InputPalletQue:MaximumContents)]}
The highest reward is given to solutions that produce the largest number of gears
without allowing many plates to accumulate at the input pallet queue. In fact, a
solution is penalized by 100 points for each unit increase in the maximum number
of plates waiting in the input pallet queue. This is one way to handle competing
objectives with SimRunner.
Develop a SimRunner project using this objective function to seek the
optimal values for the input factors (macros) TBA and ProcessTime, which are
integers between one and ve (Figure L11.15). Use the aggressive optimization
prole with the convergence percentage set to 0.01, max generations equal to
99999, and min generations equal to one. To save time, specify one replication

FIGURE L11.15
Multiple input factors setup for scenario two.

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FIGURE L11.16
Experimental results table for scenario two.

per experiment. (Remember, you will want to run multiple replications on real
applications.) Also, set the simulation run hours to 250 and the warm-up hours
to 50 for now.
At the conclusion of the optimization, SimRunner will have run four generations as it conducted 23 experiments (Figure L11.16). What values do you recommend to management for TBA and ProcessTime?
Explore how sensitive the solutions listed in the Experimental Results table
for this project are to changes in the weight assigned to the maximum contents
statistic. Change the weight of this second term in the objective function from
100 to 50. To do this, go back to the Dene Objectives section of the Setup Project module and update the weight assigned to the InputPalletQueMaximumContents response statistic from 100 to 50. Upon doing this, SimRunner warns
you that the action will clear the optimization data that you just created. You can
save the optimization project with the File Save option if you wish to keep the
results from the original optimization. For now, do not worry about saving
the data and click the Yes button below the warning message. Now rerun the

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FIGURE L11.17
Experimental results table for scenario two with modied objective function.

optimization and study the result (Figure L11.17). Notice that a different solution
is reported as optimum for the new objective function. Running a set of preliminary experiments with SimRunner is a good way to help ne-tune the weights assigned to terms in an objective function. Additionally, you may decide to delete
terms or add additional ones to better express your desires. Once the objective
function takes its nal form, rerun the optimization with the proper number of
replications.

L11.2.3 Target Range Objective Functions

The target range objective function option directs SimRunner to seek a target
value for the objective function term instead of a maximum or minimum value.
For example, you may wish to nd an arrangement for the ideal production
system that produces from 100 to 125 gears per day. Like the maximization and
minimization objective options, the target range objective option can be used
alone or in combination with the maximization and minimization options.

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For this application scenario, the managers of the ideal production system
have specied that the mean time to process gears through the system should
range between four and seven minutes. This time includes the time a plate waits
in the input pallet queue plus the machining time at the mill. Recall that we built
the model with a single entity type, named Gear, to represent both plates and
gears. Therefore, the statistic of interest is the average time that the gear entity is
in the system. Our task is to determine values for the input factors ProcessTime
and TBA that satisfy managements objective.
The target range objective function is represented in SimRunner as shown in
Figure L11.18. Develop a SimRunner project using this objective function to seek
the optimal values for the input factors (macros) TBA and ProcessTime. Specify
that the input factors are integers between one and ve, and use the aggressive
optimization prole with the convergence percentage set to 0.01, maximum generations equal to 99999, and minimum generations equal to one. To save time, set

FIGURE L11.18
Target range objective function setup for scenario three.

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FIGURE 11.19
Experimental results table with Performance Measures Plot for scenario three.

the number of replications per experiment to one. (Remember, you will want to
run multiple replications on real applications.) Also, set the simulation run hours
to 250 and the warm-up hours to 50 and run the optimization. Notice that only the
solutions producing a mean time in the system of between four and seven minutes
for the gear received a nonzero value for the objective function (Figure L11.19).
What values do you recommend to management for TBA and ProcessTime?
Now plot the solutions SimRunner presented in the Experimental Results
table by selecting the Response Plot button on the Optimize Model module
(Figure L11.19). Select the independent variables as shown in Figure L11.20 and
click the Update Chart button. The graph should appear similar to the one in
Figure L11.20. The plot gives you an idea of the response surface for this objective function based on the solutions that were evaluated by SimRunner. Click the
Edit Chart button to access the 3D graph controls to format the plot and to reposition it for different views of the response surface.

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FIGURE L11.20
Surface response plot for scenario three.

L11.3 Conclusions
Sometimes it is useful to conduct a preliminary optimization project using only one
replication to help you set up the project. However, you should rarely, if ever, make
decisions based on an optimization project that used only one replication per experiment. Therefore, you will generally conduct your nal project using multiple
replications. In fact, SimRunner displays a condence interval about the objective
function when experiments are replicated more than once. Condence intervals
indicate how accurate the estimate of the expected value of the objective function is
and can help you make better decisions, as noted in Section 11.6.2 of Chapter 11.
Even though it is easy to use SimRunner, do not fall into the trap of letting
SimRunner, or any other optimizer, become the decision maker. Study the top
solutions found by SimRunner as you might study the performance records of
different cars for a possible purchase. Kick their tires, look under their hoods, and
drive them around the block before buying. Always remember that the optimizer
is not the decision maker. SimRunner can only suggest a possible course of action.
It is your responsibility to make the nal decision.

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L11.4 Exercises
Simulation Optimization Exercises
1. Rerun the optimization project presented in Section L11.2.1, setting the
number of replications to ve. How do the results differ from the original
results?
2. Conduct an optimization project on the buffer allocation problem
presented in Section 11.6 of Chapter 11. The models le name is
Lab 11_4 BufferOpt Ch11.Mod and is included on the CD
accompanying the textbook. To get your results to appear as shown in
Figure 11.5 of Chapter 11, enter Buffer3Cap as the rst input factor,
Buffer2Cap as the second input factor, and Buffer1Cap as the third input
factor. For each input factor, the lower bound is one and the upper bound
is nine. The objective is to maximize prot. Prot is computed in the
models termination logic by
Prot
(10*Throughput)
(1000*(Buffer1Cap + Buffer2Cap + Buffer3Cap))
Figure L11.21 is a printout of the model. See Section 11.6.2 of Chapter
11 for additional details. Use the Aggressive optimization prole and
set the number of replications per experiment to 10. Specify a warm-up
time of 240 hours, a run time of 720 hours, and a condence level of
95 percent. Note that the student version of SimRunner will halt at
25 experiments, which will be before the search is completed. However,
it will provide the data necessary for answering these questions:
a. How do the results differ from those presented in Chapter 11 when
only ve replications were run per experiment?
b. Are the half-widths of the condence intervals narrower?
c. Do you think that the better estimates obtained by using 10 replications
will make it more likely that SimRunner will nd the true optimal
solution?
3. In Exercise 4 of Lab Section L10.5, you increased the amount of coal
delivered to the railroad by the DumpOnMe facility by adding more
dump trucks to the system. Your solution received high praise from
everyone but the lead engineer at the facility. He is concerned about the
maintenance needs for the scale because it is now consistently operated
in excess of 90 percent. A breakdown of the scale will incur substantial
repair costs and loss of prot due to reduced coal deliveries. He wants
to know the number of trucks needed at the facility to achieve a target
scale utilization of between 70 percent and 75 percent. This will allow
time for proper preventive maintenance on the scale. Add a macro to the
simulation model to control the number of dump trucks circulating in the
system. Use the macro in the Arrivals Table to specify the number of
dump trucks that are placed into the system at the start of each
simulation. In SimRunner, select the macro as an input factor and assign

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FIGURE L11.21
Buffer allocation model from Chapter 11 (Section 11.6.2).

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it a lower bound of one and an upper bound of 15. Conduct an

optimization project to seek the number of trucks that will achieve the
target scale utilization using the Aggressive optimization prole, ve
replications per experiment, a warm-up time of 100 minutes, and a run
time of 480 minutes.
SimRunner Warm-up Detection Exercises
SimRunners Analyze Model module implements the Welch moving average
technique presented in Section 9.6.1 of Chapter 9 to help you determine the end
of a nonterminating simulations warm-up phase before beginning an optimization project. It also helps you evaluate the number of replications needed to obtain
a point estimate to within a specied percentage error and condence level.
Although the module was created to help you set up an optimization project, it is
also useful for nonoptimization projects. To use the module without optimization,
you declare a dummy macro in your simulation model and select it as an input
factor in SimRunner. Then you select the output statistic that you wish to use in
order to evaluate the end of the simulations warm-up. The output statistic is
entered as an objective function term. Exercises 4 and 5 here involve this feature
of SimRunner.
4. This exercise will help you duplicate the SimRunner result presented in
Figure L9.14 of Lab Chapter 9, which was used to estimate the end of
the warm-up phase for the Green Machine Manufacturing Company
(GMMC) simulation model. Load the GMMC model into ProModel,
declare a dummy macro, and dene its Run-Time Interface (RTI). Start
SimRunner. The purpose of the GMMC model was to estimate the
steady-state value of the time-average amount of work-in-process (WIP)
inventory in the system. Therefore, select the WIPAverage Value
response statistic from the Variable response category as a SimRunner
maximization objective. Select the dummy macro as an input factor.
Click the Next> button to move into the Analyze Model module, and ll
in the parameters as shown in Figure L11.22.
Percentage error in the objective function estimate is the desired
amount of relative error in our average WIP inventory estimate
expressed as a percentage (see Section 9.2.3 of Chapter 9 for additional
details on relative error). In this case, we are seeking to approximate
the number of replications needed to estimate the average WIP with a
percentage error of 7 percent and a condence level of 90 percent as
we also estimate the end of the warm-up phase. Click the Next> button
and then the Run button on the Conduct Analysis window to start the
analysis. After SimRunner runs the simulation for ve replications, your
screen should appear similar to Figure L9.14. Here you adjust the
number of periods for the moving average window to help you identify
the end of simulations warm-up, which seems to occur between periods
33 and 100. SimRunner computes that at least 10 replications are needed

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FIGURE L11.22
SimRunner parameters
for the GMMC warmup example.

to estimate the average WIP inventory with a 7 percent error and a

condence level of 90 percent assuming a 100-period (hour) warm-up.
5. Use SimRunners Analyze Model module to determine the end of the
warm-up phase of the DumpOnMe simulation model with six dump
trucks as presented in Exercise 11 of Lab Section L7.12. Base your
assessment of the warm-up phase on ve replications of the simulation
with a run time of 300 minutes, and an output recording time interval of
one minute.

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12 INTERMEDIATE MODELING
CONCEPTS

All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to
discover them.
Galileo Galilei

In this lab we expand on the ProModel concepts discussed in Chapters 3 and 6.

Section L12.1 introduces the concept of attributes; Section L12.2 shows its application in the calculation of cycle times; and Section L12.3 shows the process of
sortation, sampling inspection, and rework. In Section L12.4 we show how to
merge two different submodules. Section L12.5 discusses various aspects of
machine breakdowns and maintenance; Section L12.6 shows how ProModel can
conveniently model shift-working patterns; Section L12.7 shows the application
of ProModel in a job shop; Section L12.8 introduces the modeling of priorities;
and Section L12.9 has a couple of examples of pull system applications in manufacturing. Costs are modeled and tracked in Section L12.10. Section L12.11 shows
how to import background graphics into a model, and Section L12.12 shows how
to dene and display various views of a model.

L12.1 Attributes
Attributes can be dened for entities or for locations. Attributes are placeholders
similar to variables but are attached to specic entities or locations and usually
contain information about that entity or location. Attributes are changed and assigned when an entity executes the line of logic that contains an operator, much
like the way variables work. Some examples of attributes are part type, customer
number, and time of arrival of an entity, as well as length, weight, volume, or
some other characteristic of an entity.
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To dene an attribute use the attribute editor, as follows:

1. Go to the Build/More Elements/Attributes menu and create a name (ID)
for the attribute.
2. Select the type of attributeinteger or real.
3. Select the class of attributeentity or location.

L12.1.1 Using Attributes to Track Customer Types

Problem Statement
Customers visit the neighborhood barbershop Fantastic Dan for a haircut. Among
the customers there are 20 percent children, 50 percent women, and 30 percent
men. The customer interarrival time is triangularly distributed with a minimum,
mode, and maximum of seven, eight, and nine minutes respectively. The haircut
time (in minutes) depends on the type of customer and is given in Table L12.1.
This time also includes the initial greetings and the transaction of money at the end
of the haircut. Run the simulation model for one day (480 minutes).
a. About how many customers of each type does Dan process per day?
b. What is the average number of customers of each type waiting to get a
haircut? What is the maximum?
c. What is the average time spent by a customer of each type in the salon?
What is the maximum?
Two locations (Barber Dan and Waiting for Dan) and an entity (Customer) are dened. Customer_Type is dened as an attribute (type
integer and classication

entity) as shown in Figure L12.1. The process/routing and customer arrivals are
dened as shown in Figures L12.2 and L12.3. A snapshot of the simulation model
is shown in Figure L12.4.
FIGURE L12.1
Customer_Type declared as an attribute.

TABLE L12.1 The Haircut Time for All Customers

Haircut Time (minutes)
Customers

Mean

Half-Width

Children
Women
Men

8
12
10

2
3
2

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FIGURE L12.2
Process and routing tables for Fantastic Dan.

FIGURE L12.3
Arrival of customers at Fantastic Dan.

FIGURE L12.4
Simulation model for Fantastic Dan.

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L12.2 Cycle Time

The Clock and Log are functions built into ProModel to allow us to keep track of
system events such as cycle time, lead time, or ow time within the system. The
Clock function returns the current simulation clock time in hours, minutes, or seconds. The value returned is real.
The Log function is used to subtract an expression from the current simulation clock time and stores the result with a text string header.
Time_In = Clock()
Log "Cycle Time =", Time_In

For the example in Section L12.1, nd

a. The cycle time for each type of customer of Barber Dan.
b. The average cycle time for all customers.
Dene Time_In as an attribute to track the time of arrival for all customer types.
Figure L12.5 shows the setting of the attribute Time_In and also the logging of the
average cycle time. The cycle times for children, women, and men are reported in
Figure L12.6.
FIGURE L12.5
Setting the attribute Time_In and logging the cycle time.

FIGURE L12.6
The minimum,
maximum, and
average cycle times
for various customers.

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L12.3 Sorting, Inspecting a Sample, and Rework

Problem Statement
Orders for two types of widgets (widget A and widget B) are received by WidgetsR-Us Manufacturing Inc. Widget A orders arrive on average every ve minutes
(exponentially distributed), while widget B orders arrive on average every ten minutes (exponentially distributed). Both widgets arrive at the input queue. An
attribute Part_Type is dened to differentiate between the two types of widgets.
Widget A goes to the lathe for turning operations that take Normal(5,1) minutes. Widget B goes on to the mill for processing that takes Uniform(6,2) minutes.
Both widgets go on to an inspection queue, where every fth part is inspected.
Inspection takes Normal(6,2) minutes. After inspection, 70 percent of the widgets
pass and leave the system; 30 percent of the widgets fail and are sent back to the
input queue for rework. Determine the following:
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

How many widgets of each type are shipped each week (40-hour week)?
What is the cycle time for each type of widget?
What are the maximum and minimum cycle times?
What is the number of widgets reworked each week?
What is the average number of widgets waiting in the inspection queue?

Five locations (Mill, Input_Queue, Lathe, Inspect, and Inspect_Q) are dened for
this model. Three variables are dened, as in Figure L12.7. Figure L12.8 shows
how we keep track of the machined quantity as well as the probabilistic routings
FIGURE L12.7
Variables for Widgets-R-Us.

FIGURE L12.8
Keeping track of machined_qty and probabilistic routings at the Inspect location.

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FIGURE L12.9
Simulation model for Widgets-R-Us.

after inspection. Figure L12.9 shows the complete simulation model with counters added for keeping track of the number of widgets reworked and the number
of widgets shipped.

L12.4 Merging a Submodel

Sometimes a large model is built in smaller segments. A model segment can be a
manufacturing cell or a department. Different analysts can build each segment.
After all segments are complete, they can be merged together to form a single unied model.
The Merge Model option in the File menu allows two or more independent
(complete or incomplete) models to be merged together into a single model. Entity and attribute names common to both models are considered common elements in the merged model. Duplicate locations, resources, or path networks must
rst be renamed or deleted from the original merging model. If the graphic libraries are different, the user has an option to append the merging models graphic
library to the base models graphic library. All other duplicate elements cause a
prompt to appear with a choice to delete the duplicate element.
Problem Statement
Poly Casting Inc. (Lab 7, Section L7.4) decides to merge with El Segundo Composites (Lab 7, Section L7.6.1). The new company is named El Segundo

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Castings N Composites. Merge the model for Section L7.4 with the model for
Section L7.6.1. All the nished productscastings as well as compositesare
now sent to the shipping queue and shipping clerk. The model in Section L7.4 is
shown in Figure L12.10. The complete simulation model, after the model for Section L7.6.1 is merged, is shown in Figure L12.11. After merging, make the necessary modications in the process and routing tables.
We will make suitable modications in the Processing module to reect these
changes (Figure L12.12). Also, the two original variables in Section L7.4 (WIP
and PROD_QTY) are deleted and four variables are added: WIPCasting, WIPComposite, PROD_QTY_Casting, and PROD_QTY_Composite.

FIGURE L12.10
The layout of the
simulation model for
Section L7.4.

FIGURE L12.11
Merging the models from Section L7.4 and Section L7.6.1.

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FIGURE L12.12
Changes made to the process table after merging.

L12.5 Preventive Maintenance and Machine Breakdowns

Downtime stops a location or resource from operating. Downtime can occur in one
of two ways: preventive maintenance or breakdown. A down resource (or location)
no longer functions and is not available for use. Downtimes may represent scheduled interruptions such as shifts, breaks, or scheduled maintenance. They may also
represent unscheduled and random interruptions such as equipment failures.
The mean time between failures (MTBF) can be calculated as the reciprocal of
the failure rate (distribution of failure over time). Often MTBF will follow a negative exponential distribution. In particular, the probability of failure before time
T is given by 1 eT /MTBF . The reliability is viewed as performance over time and
is the probability that a given location or resource will perform its intended
function for a specied length of time T under normal conditions of use:
Reliability = P(no failure before time T ) = eT /MTBF
The mean time to repair (MTTR) refers to the time the location or resource remains down for repair. The MTTR depends on the ease and/or cost with which a
location or resource can be maintained or repaired.
For single-capacity locations, downtime of a location or resource can be
scheduled at regular intervals based on the clock time that has expired, the number of entities processed at a location, the usage of the machine (resource) in time,
or a change in entity type. Unscheduled breakdown of a machine can also be modeled in a similar fashion.
To model preventive maintenance or breakdowns, use the following procedure:
1. Go to the Build/Locations menu.
2. Click on the DT button.

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3. Enter the frequency of downtime:

a. Clock based.
b. Number of entries based.
c. Usage based.
4. Enter the rst time downtime occurs.
5. Enter the priority of the downtime.
6. In the logic eld, enter any logic associated with downtime.
Example:
DISPLAY "The Lathe is down for preventive maintenance"
WAIT N(20,5) min

7. To disable the downtime feature, click Yes in the disable eld. Otherwise,
leave this eld as No.

L12.5.1 Downtime Using MTBF and MTTR Data

The lathe and the mill at Widgets-R-Us Manufacturing Inc. (Section L12.3)
have the maintenance schedule shown in Table L12.2. The logic for the preventive maintenance operation is created in Figure L12.13. The processes and
FIGURE L12.13
The logic for preventive maintenance at Widgets-R-Us Manufacturing Inc.

TABLE L12.2 Maintenance Schedule for Machines at Widgets-R-Us

Machine

Time between Repairs

Time to Repair

Lathe
Mill

120 minutes
200 minutes

N(10,2) minutes
T(10,15,20) minutes

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FIGURE L12.14
Processes and routings at Widgets-R-Us Manufacturing Inc.

FIGURE L12.15
Complete simulation model for Widgets-R-Us Manufacturing Inc.

routings are shown in Figure L12.14. Figure L12.15 shows the complete simulation model.

L12.5.2 Downtime Using MTTF and MTTR Data

Reliability of equipment is frequently calibrated in the eld using the mean time
to failure (MTTF) data instead of the MTBF data. MTTR is the expected time
between the end of repair of a machine and the time the machine fails. Data
collected in the eld are often based on TTF for clock-based failures.

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Problem Statement
The turning center in this machine shop (Figure L12.16) has a time to failure
(TTF) distribution that is exponential with a mean of 10 minutes. The repair time
(TTR) is also distributed exponentially with a mean of 10 minutes.
This model shows how to get ProModel to implement downtimes that use
time to failure (TTF) rather than time between failures (TBF). In practice, you
most likely will want to use TTF because that is how data will likely be available to you, assuming you have unexpected failures. If you have regularly
scheduled downtimes, it may make more sense to use TBF. In this example, the
theoretical percentage of uptime is MTTF/(MTTF + MTTR), where M indicates
a mean value. The rst time to failure and time to repair are set in the variable
initialization section (Figure L12.17). Others are set in the downtime logic (Figure L12.18).
The processing and routing tables are shown in Figure L12.19. Run this
model for about 1000 hours, then view the batch mean statistics for downtime by
picking averaged for the period (Figure L12.20) when the output analyzer (classical) comes up. The batch mean statistics for downtime for the turning center are
shown in Figure L12.21. (This problem was contributed by Dr. Stephen Chick,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.)

FIGURE L12.16
Layout of the machine
shopmodeling
breakdown with TTF
and TTR.

FIGURE L12.17
Variable
initializations.

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FIGURE L12.18
Clock downtime logic.

FIGURE L12.19
Process and routing tables.

FIGURE L12.20
Average of all the
batches in the
Classical ProModel
Output Viewer.

FIGURE L12.21
Batch mean statistics for downtime.

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L12.6 Operator Shifts

ProModel offers an excellent interface to include the operator (location or resource) shift working schedules in the simulation model. The shift work for each
operator in the model can be dened separately. Work cycles that repeat either
daily or weekly can be dened.
Problem Statement
Orders for two types of widgets (widget A and widget B) are received by
Widgets-R-Us Manufacturing Inc. Widget A orders arrive on average every
5 minutes (exponentially distributed), while widget B orders arrive on average
every 10 minutes (exponentially distributed). Both widgets arrive at the input
queue. An attribute Part_Type is dened to differentiate between the two types of
widgets.
Widget A goes on to the lathe for turning operations that take Normal(5,1) minutes. Widget B goes on to the mill for processing that takes Uniform(4,8) minutes.
Both widgets go on to an inspection queue, where every fth part is inspected.
Inspection takes Normal(6,2) minutes. After inspection, 70 percent of the widgets
pass and leave the system, while 30 percent of the widgets fail and are sent back to
the input queue for rework.
An operator is used to process the parts at both the lathe and the mill. The
operator is also used to inspect the part. The operator moves the parts from
the input queue to the machines as well as to the inspection station. The operator
is on a shift from 8 A.M. until 5 P.M. with breaks as shown in Table L12.3 and
Figures L12.22 and L12.23.
Use the DISPLAY statement to notify the user when the operator is on a break.
Set up a break area (Figure L12.24) for the operator by extending the path network to a break room and indicating the node as the break node in Resource specs.
The processes and the routings at Widgets-R-Us are shown in Figure L12.25.
Determine the following:
a. How many widgets of each type are shipped each week (40-hour
week).
b. The cycle time for each type of widgets.
c. The maximum and minimum cycle times.

TABLE L12.3 The Operator Break Schedule at

Widgets-R-Us Manufacturing Inc.
Breaks

From

To

Coffee break
Lunch break
Coffee break

10 A.M.
12 noon
3 P.M.

10:15 A.M.
12:45 P.M.
3:15 P.M.

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FIGURE L12.22
The operator Joes weekly work and break times at Widgets-R-Us.

FIGURE L12.23
Assigning the Shift File to the operator Joe.

d. The number of widgets reworked each week.

e. The average number of widgets waiting in the inspection queue.
Run the model with and without shift breaks (Figure L12.26). What difference do you notice in these statistics? How can you improve the system?

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FIGURE L12.24
The layout and path network at Widgets-R-Us.

FIGURE L12.25
Processes and routings at Widgets-R-Us.

FIGURE L12.26
A snapshot during the
simulation model run
for Widgets-R-Us.

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L12.7 Job Shop

A job shop is a collection of processing centers through which jobs are routed in
different sequences depending on the characteristics of the particular job. It is a
common method of grouping resources for producing small lots with widely varying processing requirements.
Each job in a job shop usually has a unique routing sequence. Job shops usually have a process layout. In other words, similar processes are geographically
grouped together.
Problem Statement
In Joes Jobshop there are three machines through which three types of jobs are
routed. All jobs go to all machines, but with different routings. The data for job
routings and processing times (minutes) are given in Table L12.4. The process
times are exponentially distributed with the given average values. Jobs arrive at
the rate of Exponential(30) minutes. Simulate for 10 days (80 hours). How many
jobs of each type are processed in 10 days?
Figures L12.27, L12.28, L12.29, L12.30, and L12.31 show the locations,
entities, variables, processes, and layout of Joes Jobshop.

FIGURE L12.27
Locations at Joes Jobshop.

TABLE L12.4 Summary of Process Plan for Joes Jobshop

Jobs

Machines

Process Times (minutes)

Job Mix

A
B
C

231
123
312

456075
707050
506060

25%
35%
40%

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FIGURE L12.28
Entities at Joes
Jobshop.

FIGURE L12.29
Variables to track jobs
processed at Joes
Jobshop.

FIGURE L12.30
Processes and routings at Joes Jobshop.

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FIGURE L12.31
Layout of Joes Jobshop.

L12.8 Modeling Priorities

Priorities allow us to determine the order in which events occur in the simulation.
The most common uses of priorities are
1. Selecting among upstream processes.
2. Selecting among downstream processesalready discussed in Lab 7,
Section L7.3.
3. Selecting resources.
4. Prioritizing downtimesdiscussed in Section L12.5.

L12.8.1 Selecting among Upstream Processes

This is the process of choosing among a set of upstream processes or queues for
entity removal and routing to a downstream process. When one downstream
destination exists and two or more upstream entities are competing to get there,
priorities can be used. In the example in Figure L12.32 two entities at different
locations (Process A and Process B) are both trying to get to Process C.
Problem Statement
At Wangs Export Machine Shop in the suburbs of Chicago, two types of jobs
are processed: domestic and export. The rate of arrival of both types of jobs is

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FIGURE L12.32
Choosing among upstream processes.

TABLE L12.5 Process Times at Wangs Export

Machine Shop
Machine

Process Time

Machining center
Lathe

Triangular(10,12,18) minutes
Triangular(12,15,20) minutes

TABLE L12.6 Distances between Locations

From

To

Distance (feet)

Incoming
Machining center
Lathe
Outgoing

Machining center
Lathe
Outgoing
Incoming

200
400
200
400

Exponential(60) minutes. All jobs are processed through a machining center and
a lathe. The processing times (Table L12.5) for all jobs are triangularly distributed. A forklift truck that travels at the rate of 50 feet/minute handles all the material. Export jobs are given priority over domestic jobs for shop releasethat is,
in moving from the input queue to the machining center. The distance between the
stations is given in Table L12.6. Simulate for 16 hours.

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FIGURE L12.33
Forklift resource specied for Wangs Export Machine Shop.

Five locations are dened: Lathe, Machining_Center, In_Q_Domestic,

In_Q_Export, and Outgoing_Q. Two entities (domestic and export) are dened.
Both these entities arrive with an interarrival time that is exponentially distributed
with a mean of 60 minutes. The resource (forklift) and its path network are shown
in Figures L12.33 and L12.34, respectively. The processes and routings are shown
in Figure L12.35. Note that the priority of domestic jobs is set at a value of 1
(Figure L12.33), while that of export jobs is set at 10. Higher priority numbers
signify higher priority in terms of selecting the upstream process. The priorities
can range from 0 to 999. The default priority is 0.

L12.8.2 Selecting Resources

Priorities can also be used to decide which process, among two or more competing processes requesting the same resource, will have priority in capturing that
resource.

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FIGURE L12.34
Denition of path network for forklift for Wangs Export Machine Shop.

FIGURE L12.35
Processes and routings dened for Wangs Export Machine Shop.

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Problem Statement
At Wangs Export Machine Shop, two types of jobs are processed: domestic and
export. Mr. Wang is both the owner and the operator. The rate of arrival of both
types of jobs is Exponential(60) minutes. Export jobs are processed on machining
center E, and the domestic jobs are processed on machining center D. The
processing times for all jobs are triangularly distributed (10, 12, 18) minutes.
Mr. Wang gives priority to export jobs over domestic jobs. The distance between
the stations is given in Table L12.7.
Five locations (Machining_Center_D, Machining_Center_E, In_Q_Domestic,
In_Q_Export, and Outgoing_Q) are dened. Two types of jobs (domestic and export) arrive with an exponential interarrival frequency distribution of 60 minutes.
Mr. Wang is dened as a resource in Figure L12.36. The path network and the
processes are shown in Figures L12.37 and L12.38 respectively. Mr. Wang is getting old and can walk only 20 feet/minute with a load and 30 feet/minute without a
load. Simulate for 100 hours.
Priorities of resource requests can be assigned through a GET, JOINTLY GET,
or USE statement in operation logic, downtime logic, or move logic or the subroutines called from these logics. Priorities for resource downtimes are assigned in
the Priority eld of the Clock and Usage downtime edit tables.
Note that the priority of the resource (Mr_Wang) is assigned through the GET
statement in the operation logic (Figure L12.38). The domestic orders have a resource request priority of 1, while that of the export orders is 10.

FIGURE 12.36
Resource dened for Wangs Export Machine Shop.

TABLE L12.7 Distances between Stations at Wangs Export

Machine Shop
From

To

Distance (feet)

Machining_Center_E
Machining_Center_D
Outgoing

Machining_Center_D
Outgoing
Machining_Center_E

200
200
200

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FIGURE L12.37
Path network dened at Wangs Export Machine Shop.

FIGURE L12.38
Processes and routings dened at Wangs Export Machine Shop.

The results (partial) are shown in Figure L12.39. Note that the average time
waiting for the resource (Mr_Wang) is about 50 percent more for the domestic
jobs (with lower priority) than for the export jobs. The average time in the system
for domestic jobs is also considerably more than for the export jobs.

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FIGURE L12.39
Part of the results showing the entity activities.

L12.9 Modeling a Pull System

A pull system is a system in which locations produce parts only on downstream
demand. There are two types of pull systems:
1. Those based on limited buffer or queue sizes.
2. Those based on more distant downstream demand.
The rst type of pull system is modeled in ProModel by dening locations
with limited capacity. In this type of system, upstream locations will be able to
send parts to downstream locations only when there is capacity available.

L12.9.1 Pull Based on Downstream Demand

The second type of pull system requires the use of a SEND statement from a downstream location to trigger part movement from an upstream location.
Problem Statement
In the Milwaukee Machine Shop, two types of jobs are processed within a machine cell. The cell consists of one lathe and one mill. Type 1 jobs must be
processed rst on the lathe and then on the mill. Type 2 jobs are processed only on
the mill (Table L12.8). All jobs are processed on a rst-in, rst-out basis.
Brookeld Forgings is a vendor for the Milwaukee Machine Shop and produces all the raw material for them. Forgings are produced in batches of ve every
day (exponential with a mean of 24 hours). However, the customer supplies them
only on demand. In other words, when orders arrive at the Milwaukee Machine
Shop, the raw forgings are supplied by the vendor (a pull system of shop loading).
Simulate for 100 days (2400 hours). Track the work-in-process inventories and
the production quantities for both the job types.
Six locations (Mill, Lathe, Brookeld_Forgings, Order_Arrival, Lathe_Q,
and Mill_Q) and four entities (Gear_1, Gear_2, Orders_1, and Orders_2) are
dened. The arrivals of various entities are dened as in Figure L12.40. Four
variables are dened as shown in Figure L12.41. The processes and routings are

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FIGURE L12.40
Arrival of orders at the Milwaukee Machine Shop.

FIGURE L12.41
Variables dened for
the Milwaukee
Machine Shop.

TABLE L12.8 Order Arrival and Process Time Data

for the Milwaukee Machine Shop
Job
Type

Number of
Orders

Time between
Order Arrival

Processing Time
on Lathe

Processing Time
on Mill

1
2

120
100

E(8) hrs
E(10) hrs

E(3) hrs

U(3,1) hrs
U(4,1) hrs

shown in Figure L12.42. Note that as soon as a customer order is received at the
Milwaukee Machine Shop, a signal is sent to Brookeld Forgings to ship a gear
forging (of the appropriate type). Thus the arrival of customer orders pulls the raw
material from the vendor. When the gears are fully machined, they are united
(JOINed) with the appropriate customer order at the orders arrival location. Figure L12.43 shows a layout of the Milwaukee Machine Shop and a snapshot of the
simulation model.

L12.9.2 Kanban System

The kanban system is one of the methods of control utilized within the Toyota
production system (TPS). The basic philosophy in TPS is total elimination of

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FIGURE L12.42
Processes and routings dened for the Milwaukee Machine Shop.

FIGURE L12.43
Simulation model for the Milwaukee Machine Shop.

waste in machines, equipment, and personnel. To make the ow of things as

close as possible to this ideal condition, a system of just-in-time procurement
of material is usedthat is, obtain material when needed and in the quantity
needed.

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Kanban literally means visual record. The word kanban refers to the
signboard of a store or shop, but at Toyota it simply means any small sign displayed in front of a worker. The kanban contains information that serves as a work
order. It gives information concerning what to produce, when to produce it, in
what quantity, by what means, and how to transport it.
Problem Statement
A consultant recommends implementing a production kanban system for Section 12.9.1s Milwaukee Machine Shop. Simulation is used to nd out how
many kanbans should be used. Model the shop with a total of ve kanbans.
The kanban procedure operates in the following manner:
1. As soon as an order is received by the Milwaukee Machine Shop, they
communicate it to Brookeld Forgings.
2. Brookeld Forgings holds the raw material in their own facility in the
forging queue in the sequence in which the orders were received.
3. The production of jobs at the Milwaukee Machine Shop begins only
when a production kanban is available and attached to the production
order.
4. As soon as the production of any job type is nished, the kanban is
detached and sent to the kanban square, from where it is pulled by
Brookeld Forgings and attached to a forging waiting in the forging
queue to be released for production.
The locations at the Milwaukee Machine Shop are dened as shown in Figure L12.44. Kanbans are dened as virtual entities in the entity table (Figure L12.45).
The arrival of two types of gears at Brookeld Forgings is shown in the arrivals table (Figure L12.46). This table also shows the arrival of two types of customer orders at the Milwaukee Machine Shop. A total of ve kanbans are generated
at the beginning of the simulation run. These are recirculated through the system.
FIGURE L12.44
Locations at the Milwaukee Machine Shop.

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FIGURE L12.45
Entities dened for
Milwaukee Machine
Shop.

FIGURE L12.46
Arrival of orders at Milwaukee Machine Shop.

FIGURE L12.47
Simulation model of a kanban system for the Milwaukee Machine Shop.

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FIGURE L12.48
Process and routing tables for the Milwaukee Machine Shop.

Figure L12.47 shows the layout of the Milwaukee Machine Shop. The
processes and the routings are shown in Figure L12.48. The arrival of a customer
order (type 1 or 2) at the orders arrival location sends a signal to Brookeld Forgings in the form of a production kanban. The kanban is temporarily attached
(LOADed) to a gear forging of the right type at the Order_Q. The gear forgings are
sent to the Milwaukee Machine Shop for processing. After they are fully
processed, the kanban is separated (UNLOADed). The kanban goes back to the kanban square. The nished gear is united (JOINed) with the appropriate customer
order at the orders arrival location.

L12.10 Tracking Cost

ProModel 6.0 includes a cost-tracking feature. The following costs can be
monitored:
1. Location cost
2. Resource cost
3. Entity cost
The cost dialog can be accessed from the Build menu (Figure L12.49).

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FIGURE 12.49
The Cost option in the
Build menu.

FIGURE L12.50
The Cost dialog boxLocations option.

Locations
The Locations Cost dialog box (Figure L12.50) has two elds: Operation Rate
and Per Operation Rate species the cost per unit of time to process at the selected
location. Costs accrue when an entity waits at the location or uses the location. Per
is a pull-down menu to set the time unit for the operation rate as second, minute,
hour, or day.
Resources
The Resources Cost dialog box (Figure L12.51) has three elds: Regular Rate,
Per, and Cost Per Use. Regular Rate species the cost per unit of time for a resource used in the model. This rate can also be set or changed during run time

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FIGURE L12.51
The Cost dialog boxResources option.

FIGURE L12.52
The Cost dialog boxEntities option.

using the SETRATE operation statement. Per is a pull-down menu, dened before.
Cost Per Use is a eld that allows you to dene the actual dollar cost accrued
every time the resource is obtained and used.
Entities
The Entities Cost dialog box (Figure L12.52) has only one eld: Initial Cost.
Initial Cost is the cost of the entity when it arrives to the system through a scheduled arrival.

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Increment Cost
The costs of a location, resource, or entity can be incremented by a positive or
negative amount using the following operation statements:

IncLocCostEnables

you to increment the cost of a location.

you to increment the cost of a resource.
IncEntCostEnables you to increment the cost of an entity.
IncResCostEnables

For more information on the cost-tracking feature of ProModel, refer to Lab 6

of the ProModel manual.
Problem Statement
Raja owns a manufacturing cell consisting of two mills and a lathe. All jobs are
processed in the same sequence, consisting of an arriving station, a lathe, mill 1,
mill 2, and an exit station. The processing time on each machine is normally distributed with a mean of 60 seconds and standard deviation of 5. The arrival rate of
jobs is exponentially distributed with a mean of 120 seconds.
Raja, the material handler, transports the jobs between the machines and the
arriving and exit stations. Job pickup and release times are uniformly distributed
between six and eight seconds. The distances between the stations are given in
Table L12.9. Raja can walk at the rate of 150 feet/minute when carrying no load.
However, he can walk only at the rate of 80 feet/minute when carrying a load.
The operation costs for the machines are given in Table L12.10. Raja gets paid
at the rate of $60 per hour plus $5 per use. The initial cost of the jobs when they
enter the system is $100 per piece. Track the number of jobs produced, the total
cost of production, and the cost per piece of production. Simulate for 80 hours.

TABLE L12.9 Distances between Stations

From

To

Distance (feet)

Arriving
Lathe
Mill 1
Mill 2
Exit

Lathe
Mill 1
Mill 2
Exit
Arrive

40
80
60
50
80

TABLE L12.10 Operation Costs at Rajas

Manufacturing Cell
Machine

Operation Costs

Lathe
Mill 1
Mill 2

$10/minute
$18/minute
$22/minute

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FIGURE L12.53
Processes and routings at Rajas manufacturing cell.

FIGURE L12.54
Simulation model of Rajas manufacturing cell.

Five locations (Lathe, Mill1, Mill2,Arrive_Station, and Exit_Station) and three

variables (Total_Prod, Cost_Per_Part, and Total_Cost) are dened. The processes
are shown in Figure L12.53. The simulation model is shown in Figure L12.54.

L12.11 Importing a Background

Background graphics work as a static wallpaper and enhance the look of a simulation model. They make the model realistic and provide credibility during presentations. Many different graphic formats can be imported such as .BMP, .WMF,
.GIF, and .PCX. Drawings in CAD formats like .DWG must be saved in one of
these le formats before they can be imported. .BMPs and .WMFs can be copied
to the clipboard from other applications and passed directly into the background.

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AutoCAD drawings can also be copied to the clipboard and pasted into the background. The procedure is as follows:
1. With the graphic on the screen, press <Ctrl> and <C> together.
Alternatively, choose Copy from the Edit menu. This will copy the
graphic into the Windows clipboard.
2. Open an existing or new model le in ProModel.
3. Press <Ctrl> and <V> together. Alternatively, choose Paste from the
Edit menu.
This action will paste the graphic as a background on the layout of the model.
Another way to import backgrounds is to use the Edit menu in ProModel:
1.
2.
3.
4.

Choose Background Graphics from the Build menu.

Select Front of or Behind grid.
Choose Import Graphic from the Edit menu.
Select the desired le and le type. The image will be imported into the
layout of the model.
5. Left-click on the graphic to reposition and resize it, if necessary.
Front of grid means the graphic will not be covered by grid lines when the
grid is on. Behind grid means the graphic will be covered with grid lines when
the grid is on.

L12.12 Dening and Displaying Views

Specic areas of the model layout can be predened and then quickly and easily
viewed in ProModel. Each view can be given a unique name and can have a suitable magnication. These views can be accessed during editing of the model by
selecting Views from the View menu (Figure L12.55) or by using the keyboard
shortcut key. Views can also be accessed in real time during the running of the
model with a VIEW "mill_machine" statement.
Problem Statement
For the Shipping Boxes Unlimited example in Lab 7, Section L7.7.2, dene the
following six views: Monitor Queue, Box Queue, Inspect Queue, Shipping
Queue, Pallet Queue, and Full View. Each view must be at 300 percent magnication. Show Full View at start-up. Show the Pallet Queue when an empty pallet
arrives at the pallet queue location. Go back to showing the Full View when the
box is at the shipping dock. Here are the steps in dening and naming views:
1. Select the View menu after the model layout is nished.
2. Select Views from the View menu.
The Views dialog box is shown in Figure L12.56. Figure L12.57 shows the Add
View dialog box. The Full View of the Shipping Boxes Inc. model is shown in
Figure L12.58.

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FIGURE L12.55

FIGURE L12.56

Views command in the View menu.

The Views dialog box.

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FIGURE L12.57
The Add View dialog
box.

Referencing a View in Model Logic

1. Select General Information (Figure L12.59) from the Build menu. Select
Initialization Logic and use the VIEW statement:
View "Full View"

2. Select Processing from the Build menu. Use the following statement in
the Operation eld when the Pallet Empty arrives at the Pallet Queue
location (Figure L12.60):
View "Pallet Queue"

Also, use the following statement in the Operation eld when the box
arrives at the shipping dock:
View "Full View"

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FIGURE L12.58
Full View of the Shipping Boxes Inc. model.

FIGURE L12.59
General Information
for the Shipping Boxes
Inc. model.

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FIGURE L12.60
Processes and routings at Shipping Boxes Inc. incorporating the change of views.

L12.13 Creating a Model Package

ProModel has an innovative feature of creating a package of all les associated
with the model le. This package le is titled <model name>.PKGfor example,
ATM.pkg. The package le can then be archived or distributed to others. This le
includes the model le (*.MOD), the graphic library (unless you check the Exclude Graphics Library option), and any external les you dened (such as read
les, arrivals les, and shift les); the model package automatically includes
bitmaps imported into the background graphics. The package le can be subsequently unpackaged by the receiver to run.
Use the following steps to create a model package:
1. Select Create Model Package from the File menu.
2. Enter the name you wish to use for the model package. ProModel uses
the name of the model le as the default name of the package. So
ATM.mod will be packaged as ATM.pkg. You can also Browse . . . to
select the model name and directory path.
3. Check/uncheck the Exclude Graphics Library box, if you want to
include/exclude the graphics library.
4. Check the Protect Model Data box if you want to protect the data in your
model and prevent other users from changing and even viewing the
model data les.
5. Click OK.

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Example
For the Widgets-R-Us example in Section L12.6, make a model package that includes the model le and the shift le for operator Joe. Save the model package in
a oppy disk. Figure L12.61 shows the Create Model Package dialog.
Unpack
To unpack and install the model package, double-click on the package le. In the
Unpack Model Package dialog select the appropriate drive and directory path to
install the model le and its associated les (Figure L12.62). Then click Install.
After the package le has been installed, ProModel prompts you (Figure L12.63)
for loading the model. Click Yes.

FIGURE L12.61
Create Model Package
dialog.

FIGURE L12.62
Unpack Model
Package dialog.

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FIGURE L12.63
Load Model dialog.

L12.14 Exercises
1. Five different types of equipment are available for processing a special
type of part for one day (six hours) of each week. Equipment 1 is
available on Monday, equipment 2 on Tuesday, and so forth. The
processing time data follow:

Equipment

Time to Process One Part (minutes)

1
2
3
4
5

52
42
3 1.5
61
51

Assume that parts arrive at a rate of one every 4 1 hours, including

weekends. How many parts are produced each week? How large a
storage area is needed for parts waiting for a machine? Is there a
bottleneck at any particular time? Why?
2. Customers visit the neighborhood barbershop Fantastic Dan for a
haircut. Among the customers there are 30 percent children, 50 percent
women, and 20 percent men. The customer interarrival time is
triangularly distributed with a minimum, mode, and maximum of 8, 11,
and 14 minutes respectively. The haircut time (in minutes) depends on
the type of customer, as shown in this table:

Haircut Time (minutes)

Customers
Children
Women
Men

Mean

Half-Width

8
12
10

2
3
2

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The initial greetings and signing in take Normal (2, 2) minutes, and the
transaction of money at the end of the haircut takes Normal (3, 3) minutes.
Run the simulation model for 100 working days (480 minutes each).
a. About how many customers of each type does Dan process per day?
b. What is the average number of customers of each type waiting to get
a haircut? What is the maximum?
c. What is the average time spent by a customer of each type in the
salon? What is the maximum?
3. Poly Castings Inc. receives castings from its suppliers in batches of
one every eleven minutes exponentially distributed. All castings arrive
at the raw material store. Of these castings, 70 percent are used to make
widget A, and the rest are used to make widget B. Widget A goes from
the raw material store to the mill, and then on to the grinder. Widget B
goes directly to the grinder. After grinding, all widgets go to degrease
for cleaning. Finally, all widgets are sent to the nished parts store.
Simulate for 1000 hours.
Widget

Process 1

Process 2

Process 3

Widget A
Widget B

Mill [N(5,2) min.]

Grinder [U(9,1) min.]

Grinder [U(11,1) min.]

Degrease [7 min.]

Degrease [7 min.]

Track the work-in-process inventory of both types of widgets

separately. Also, track the production of nished widgets (both types).
4. The maintenance mechanic in the problem in Section L12.5.1 is an independent contractor and works four hours each day from 10 A.M. until 2 P.M.,
Monday through Friday, with no lunch break. The rest of the shop works
from 8 A.M. until 4 P.M. What will be the impact on the shop (average cycle
time and number of widgets made per day) if we hire him full-time and
have him work from 8 A.M. until 4 P.M. instead of working part-time?
5. Consider the United Electronics Exercise 7, in Section L7.12, with the
following enhancements. The soldering machine breaks down on
average after every 2000 200 minutes of operation. The repair time
is normally distributed (100, 50) minutes. Create a simulation model,
with animation, of this system. Simulate this manufacturing system
for 100 days, eight hours each day. Collect and print statistics on the
utilization of each station, associated queues, and the total number of
jobs manufactured during each eight-hour shift (average).
6. Consider the Poly Casting Inc. example in Lab 7, Section L7.4, and
answer the following questions:
a. What is the average time a casting spends in the system?
b. What is the average time a casting waits before being loaded on a
mill? After a mill processes 25 castings, it is shut down for a
uniformly distributed time between 10 and 20 minutes for cleaning
and tool change.

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c. What percentage of the time does each mill spend in cleaning and
tool change operations?
d. What is the average time a casting spends in the system?
e. What is the average work-in-process of castings in the system?
7. Consider the NoWaitBurger stand in Exercise 13, in Section L7.12,
and answer the following questions.
a. What is the average amount of time spent by a customer at the
hamburger stand?
b. Run 10 replications and compute a 90 percent condence interval for
the average amount of time spent by a customer at the stand.
c. Develop a 90 percent condence interval for the average number of
customers waiting at the burger stand.
8. Sharukh, Amir, and Salman wash cars at the Bollywood Car Wash.
Cars arrive every 10 6 minutes. They service customers at the rate of
one every 20 10 minutes. However, the customers prefer Sharukh to
Amir, and Amir over Salman. If the attendant of choice is busy, the
customers choose the rst available attendant. Simulate the car wash
system for 1000 service completions (car washes). Answer the
following questions:
a. Estimate Sharukhs, Amirs, and Salmans utilization.
b. On average, how long does a customer spend at the car wash?
c. What is the longest time any customer spent at the car wash?
d. What is the average number of customers at the car wash?
Embellishment: The customers are forced to choose the rst available
attendant; no individual preferences are allowed. Will this make a
signicant enough difference in the performance of the system to justify
this change? Answer questions a through d to support your argument.
9. Cindy is a pharmacist and works at the Save-Here Drugstore. Walkin customers arrive at a rate of one every 10 3 minutes. Drive-in
customers arrive at a rate of one every 20 10 minutes. Drive-in
customers are given higher priority than walk-in customers. The
number of items in a prescription varies from 1 to 5 (3 2). Cindy can
ll one item in 6 1 minutes. She works from 8 A.M. until 5 P.M. Her
lunch break is from 12 noon until 1 P.M. She also takes two 15-minute
breaks: at 10 A.M. and at 3 P.M. Dene a shift le for Cindy named
Cindy.sft. Model the pharmacy for a year (250 days) and answer the
following questions:
a. Estimate the average time a customer (of each type) spends at the
drugstore.
b. What is the average number of customers (of each type) waiting for
service at the drugstore?
c. What is the utilization of Cindy (percentage of time busy)?
d. Do you suggest that we add another pharmacist to assist Cindy? How
many pharmacists should we add?

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e. Is it better to have a dedicated pharmacist for drive-in customers and

another for walk-in customers?
f. Create a package le called SaveHere.pkg that includes the
simulation model le and the shift le Cindy.sft.
10. A production line with ve workstations is used to assemble a product.
Parts arrive to the rst workstation at random exponentially distributed
intervals with a mean of seven minutes. Service times at individual
stations are exponentially distributed with a mean of three minutes.
a. Develop a simulation model that collects data for time in the system
for each part.
b. Additional analysis shows that products from three different priority
classes are assembled on the line. Products from different classes
appear in random order; products from classes 1, 2, and 3 have
highest, medium, and lowest priorities respectively. Modify the
simulation program to reect this situation. Determine the mean time
in the system for the three different priority classes.
Class

Probability

0.3

0.5

0.2

c. The assembly process is modied so that each product to be

assembled is placed on a pallet. The production supervisor wants
to know how many pallets to place in operation at one time. It takes
Uniform(8 2) minutes to move the pallet from station 5 to station 1.
Pallet loading and unloading times are Uniform(3 1) minutes each.
Modify the simulation model to reect this situation. Is it better to use
5 or 20 pallets?
11. Two types of parts arrive at a single machine where they are processed
one part at a time. The rst type of part has a higher priority and arrives
exponentially with a mean interarrival time of 30 minutes. The second
lower-priority type also arrives exponentially with a mean interarrival
time of 30 minutes. Within priority classes, the parts are serviced in
FIFO order, but between priority classes the higher-priority type will
always be processed rst. However, a lower-priority part cannot be
interrupted once it has begun processing. The machine processing times
for higher- and lower-priority types of parts are uniformly distributed
(20 5) and (8 2) minutes, respectively. Simulate the system for
1000 hours.
a. What are the average time in queue and average time in system for
each type of part?
b. What are the average production rates of each type of part per hour?
12. The manufacture of a certain line of composite aerospace subassembly
involves a relatively lengthy assembly process, followed by a short

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ring time on an oven, which holds only one sub-assembly at a time.

An assembler cannot begin assembling a new sub-assembly until he or
she has removed the old one from the oven. The following is the pattern
of processes followed by each assembler:
a. Assemble next subassembly.
b. Wait, rst-come, rst-served, to use the oven.
c. Use the oven.
d. Return to step a.
Here are the operating times and relevant nancial data:

Operation

Time Required
(minutes)

Assemble
Fire

30 5
82

Cost Information
($)

Item
Assemblers salary
Oven cost
Raw material
Sale price of nished sub-assembly

$35/hour
$180 per 8-hour workday
(independent of utilization)
$8 per sub-assembly
$40 per sub-assembly

Build a simulation model of this manufacturing process. Use the model

to determine the optimal number of assemblers to be assigned to an
oven. The optimal number is understood in this context to be the one
maximizing prot. Base the determination on simulations equivalent
to 2000 hours of simulated time. Assume there are no discontinuities
within a working day, or in moving between consecutive eight-hour
working days. (Adapted from T. Schriber, Simulation using GPSS, John
Wiley, 1974.)
13. For the following ofce work, the likelihood of needing rework after
audit is 15 percent. Interarrival times are exponentially distributed
with a mean of 5 minutes, rework times are exponentially distributed

Office work

Audit

15%

Rework
85%

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with a mean of 4 minutes, audit time is uniformly distributed between

2 1 minutes, and work times are normally distributed with an average
time of 4.5 minutes and standard deviation of 1.0 minute.
a. What is the mean time in the system for the rst 200 reworked ofce
les?
b. Develop a histogram of the mean time in the system for the rst
1000 departures.
c. Modify the simulation program so that ofce work is rejected if it
fails a second audit. How many ofce les are inspected twice? How
many of these fail the audit a second time?
d. Modify the program to count the number of ofce les staying in the
system longer than a specied length of time. What percentage of the
ofce work stays in the system for more than 12 minutes?
e. Modify the part a simulation program so that it takes uniform
(3 1) minutes to move the ofce le from one station to another.
f. Modify the part a simulation program so that les to be reworked for
second or more times have a lower priority than les needing rework
for the rst time. Does it seem to make a difference in the overall
mean time in the system?

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13 MATERIAL HANDLING
CONCEPTS

With malice toward none, with charity for all, with rmness in the right, as God
gives us to see the right, let us strive on to nish the work we are in . . .
Abraham Lincoln (18091865)

In this lab we introduce you to various material handling concepts in ProModel.

First we introduce you to the concepts of conveyors. In the next section we introduce manual and other discrete material handling systems, such as the forklift
truck. Section L13.3 introduces the concepts of a crane system. For a more detailed discussion of modeling various material handling systems, please refer to
Chapter 13.

L13.1 Conveyors
Conveyors are continuous material handling devices for transferring or moving
objects along a xed path having xed, predened loading and unloading points.
Some examples of conveyors are belt, chain, overhead, power-and-free, roller,
and bucket conveyors.
In ProModel, conveyors are locations represented by a conveyor graphic. A
conveyor is dened graphically by a conveyor path on the layout. Once the path
has been laid out, the length, speed, and visual representation of the conveyor can
be edited by double-clicking on the path and opening the Conveyor/Queue dialog
box (Figure L13.1). The various conveyor options are specied in the Conveyor
Options dialog box, which is accessed by clicking on the Conveyor Options button in the Conveyor/Queue dialog box (Figure L13.2).
In an accumulating conveyor, if the lead entity comes to a stop, the trailing
entities queue behind it. In a nonaccumulating conveyor, if the lead entity is unable to exit the conveyor, then the conveyor and all other entities stop.
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FIGURE L13.1
The Conveyor/Queue
dialog box.

FIGURE L13.2
The Conveyor Options
dialog box.

L13.1.1 Multiple Conveyors

Problem Statement
At Shipn Boxes Inc., boxes of type A arrive at Conv1 at the rate of one every
ve minutes (exponentially distributed). They are sent to the shipping conveyor.
Boxes of type B arrive at Conv2 at the rate of one every two minutes (exponential)
and are also sent to the shipping conveyor. The shipping conveyor takes boxes of
both type A and B to the truck waiting at the shipping dock. The speed and length of
the conveyors are given in Table L13.1. Develop a simulation model and run it for
10 hours. Figure out how many boxes of each type are shipped in 10 hours.
Four locations (Conv1, Conv2, Shipping, and Shipping_Dock) and two entities (Box_A and Box_B) are dened. The processes and layout are shown in Figures L13.3 and L13.4 respectively.

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FIGURE L13.3
Processes and routings for the Shipn Boxes Inc. model.

FIGURE L13.4
Simulation model
layout for Shipn
Boxes Inc.

TABLE L13.1 Conveyor Lengths and Speeds

Name

Length

Speed

Conv1
Conv2
Shipping

100
100
200

30 feet/minute
50 feet/minute
20 feet/minute

L13.2 Resources, Path Networks, and Interfaces

A resource is a person, piece of equipment, or some other device that is used for
one or more of the following functions: transporting entities, assisting in performing operations on entities at locations, performing maintenance on locations,
or performing maintenance on other resources. In the following example, an operator is used as an example of a resource.

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A path network denes the way a resource travels between locations. The
specications of path networks allow you to dene the nodes at which the
resource parks, the motion of the resource, and the path on which the resource
travels. Path networks consist of nodes that are connected by path segments. A
beginning node and an ending node dene a path segment. Path segments may be
unidirectional or bidirectional. Multiple path segments, which may be straight or
joined, are connected at path nodes. To create path networks:
1. Select the Path button and then left-click in the layout where you want
the path to start.
2. Subsequently, left-click to put joints in the path and right-click to end the
path.
Interfaces are where the resource interacts with the location when it is on the
path network. To create an interface between a node and a location:
1. Left-click and release on the node (a dashed line appears).
2. Then left-click and release on the location.
Multiple interfaces from a single node to locations can be created, but only
one interface may be created from the same path network to a particular location.

L13.2.1 Manual Material Handling Systems

Problem Statement
At Ghoshs Gear Shop, a small automotive OEM facility, there are two NC lathes,
a degreaser, and inspection equipment. Blanks are received at the receiving area.
The blanks are machined on either NC lathe 1 or NC lathe 2 (machines are assigned by turn for successive blanks). After machining, the cogs go to the degreaser for washing. Then the cogs are inspected. An operator moves the parts
from one area to another. The operator is also required to run the machines and
perform the inspection procedure.
Blanks arrive at the rate of 10 per hour (exponentially distributed). The machining, washing, and inspection processes take Uniform(15 5), Uniform(5 1),
and Normal(8, 4) minutes respectively. It takes Exponential(2) minutes to move
the material between the processes. The operator is paid $20 per hour. It costs the
company $0.10 for each hour the parts spend in processing in the manufacturing
shop. The prot per item is $20.00 after deducting direct material costs and all
other overhead. Build a simulation model, run it for 100 hours, and determine how
many operators the shop should hire (one, two, or three).
Five locations (Receive, NC_Lathe_1, NC_Lathe_2, Inspect, and Degrease),
two entities (Blank and Cog), and a resource (Operator) are dened. The processes
and routings are shown in Figure L13.5. The blanks arrive with an interarrival
time that is exponentially distributed with a mean of 20 minutes. The simulation
run hours are set at 100 in the Simulation Option menu. The model is titled
Ghoshs Gear Shop in the General Information menu. The layout of Ghoshs Gear
Shop is shown in Figure L13.6.

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FIGURE L13.5
Process and routing logic at Ghoshs Gear Shop.

FIGURE L13.6
Layout of Ghoshs Gear Shop.

We ran this model with one, two, or three operators working together. The
results are summarized in Tables L13.2 and L13.3. The production quantities and
the average time in system (minutes) are obtained from the output of the simulation analysis. The prot per hour, the expected delay cost per piece, and the

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TABLE L13.2 Production Performance at Ghoshs Gear Shop

Number of
Operators

Production Quantity
Per 100 Hours

Production Rate
Per Hour

Gross Prot
Per Hour

Average Time in
System (minutes)

1
2
3

199
404
598

1.99
4.04
5.98

39.80
80.80
119.60

2423
1782
1354

TABLE L13.3 Net Prot at Ghoshs Gear Shop

Number of
Operators

Expected
Delay Cost
($/piece)

Expected
Delay Cost
($/hour)

Expected
Service Cost
($/hour)

Total Net Prot

($/hour)

1
2
3

$4.04
$2.97
$2.25

$8.04
$12.00
$13.45

$20
$40
$60

$11.76
$28.80
$46.15

expected delay cost per hour are calculated as follows:

Prot per hour

Production rate per hour Prot per piece
Expected delay cost ($/piece)
[Average time in system (min.)/60]
$0.1/piece/hr.
Expected delay cost ($/hr.)

Expected delay cost ($/piece)
Production rate/hr.
The total net prot per hour after deducting the expected delay and the expected service costs is
Total net prot/hr.
Gross prot/hr. Expected delay cost/hr.
Expected service cost/hr.
The net prot per hour is maximized with three operators working in the
shop. However, it must be noted that by hiring two operators instead of one, the
increase in net prot per hour is about 145 percent, but the increase is only about
60 percent when three operators are hired instead of one.

L13.2.2 Manual versus Automated Material

Handling Systems
We will now consider the impact of installing a conveyor system in the manufacturing facility described in the previous section. The conveyor will move all
the material from one location to another and will replace the cell operator. The
conveyor costs $50 per foot to install and $30,000 per year to maintain. The

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additional throughput can be sold for $20 per item prot. Should we replace one
operator in the previous manufacturing system with a conveyor system? Build a
simulation model and run it for 100 hours to help in making this decision.
The layout, locations, and processes and routings are dened as shown
in Figures L13.7, L13.8, and L13.9 respectively. The length of each conveyor is
40 feet (Figure L13.10). The speeds of all three conveyors are assumed to be
50 feet/minute (Figure L13.11).
The results of this model are summarized in Tables L13.4 and L13.5. The
production quantities and the average time in system (minutes) are obtained from
the output of the simulation analysis. The prot per hour, the expected delay cost

FIGURE L13.7
Layout of Ghoshs Gear Shop with conveyors.

FIGURE L13.8
Locations at Ghoshs
Gear Shop with
conveyors.

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FIGURE L13.9
Process and routing at Ghoshs Gear Shop with conveyors.

FIGURE L13.10
Conveyors at Ghoshs
Gear Shop.

FIGURE L13.11
Conveyor options at
Ghoshs Gear Shop.

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TABLE L13.4 Production and Gross Prot at Ghoshs Gear Shop

Mode of
Transportation

Production
Quantity
Per 100 Hours

Production Rate
Per Hour

Gross Prot
Per Hour

Average Time in
System (minutes)

Conveyor

747

7.47

$149.40

891

TABLE L13.5 Net Prot at Ghoshs Gear Shop

Mode of
Transportation

Expected
Delay Cost
($/piece)

Expected
Delay Cost
($/hour)

Expected
Service Cost
($/hour)

Total Net
Prot ($/hour)

Conveyor

$1.485

$11.093

$16

$122.307

per piece, and the expected delay cost per hour are calculated as follows:
Prot per hour

Production rate/hour Prot per piece
Expected delay cost ($/piece)
(Average time in system (min.)/60)
$0.1/piece/hour
Expected delay cost ($/hour)
Expected delay cost ($/piece)
Production rate/hour
To calculate the service cost of the conveyor, we assume that it is used about
2000 hours per year (8 hrs/day 250 days/year). Also, for depreciation purposes,
we assume straight-line depreciation over three years.
Total cost of installation
$50/ft. 40 ft./conveyor segment
3 conveyor segments

$6000
Depreciation per year
$6000/3
$2000/year
Maintenance cost

$30,000/year
Total service cost/year
Depreciation cost + Maintenance cost

$32,000/year
Total service cost/hour
$32,000/2000
$16/hour
The total net prot per hour after deducting the expected delay and the expected service costs is
Total net prot/hour
Gross prot/hour Expected delay cost/hour
Expected service cost/hour
Comparing the net prot per hour between manual material handling and
conveyorized material handling, it is evident that conveyors should be installed to
maximize prot.

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L13.2.3 Using Operator for Processing

In the following example we use an operator for material handling as well as some
of the processing done in the shop.
Problem Statement
Modify the example in Section L7.7.1 by having a material handler (let us call
him Joe) return the pallets from the shipping dock to the packing workbench.
Eliminate the pallet return conveyor. Also, lets have Joe load the boxes onto
pallets [Uniform(3,1) min] and the loaded pallets onto the shipping conveyor.
Assume one pallet is in the system. Simulate for 10 hours and determine the
following:
1. The number of monitors shipped.
2. The utilization of the material handler.
Seven locations (Conv1, Conv2, Shipping_Q, Shipping_Conv, Shipping_Dock,
Packing_Table, and Load_Zone) are dened. The resource (Joe) is dened as
shown in Figure L13.12. The path network for the resource and the processes and
routings are shown in Figures L13.13 and L13.14 respectively. The arrivals of the
entities are shown in Figure L13.15. The layout of Shipn Boxes Inc. with conveyors is shown in Figure L13.16.

L13.2.4 Automated Manufacturing Cell

Problem Statement
Raja owns a manufacturing cell consisting of two mills and a lathe. All jobs are
processed in the same sequence, consisting of arrival station, lathe, mill 1, mill 2,
FIGURE L13.12
Material handler as a resource.

FIGURE L13.13
Path network for the material handler.

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FIGURE L13.14
Processes and routings for the example in Section L13.2.3.

FIGURE L13.15
Arrivals for the example in Section L13.2.3.

FIGURE L13.16
The layout for
Shipping Boxes Inc.

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and exit station. The processing time on each machine is normally distributed with
a mean of 60 seconds and a standard deviation of 5 seconds. The arrival rate of
jobs is exponentially distributed with a mean of 120 seconds.
Raja also transports the jobs between the machines and the arrival and exit
stations. Job pickup and release times are uniformly distributed between six and
eight seconds. The distances between the stations are given in Table L13.6. Raja can
travel at the rate of 150 feet/minute when carrying no load. However, he can walk at
the rate of only 80 feet/minute when carrying a load. Simulate for 80 hours.
The layout, locations, path networks, resource specication, and processes
and routings are shown in Figures L13.17, L13.18, L13.19, L13.20, and L13.21,
respectively.

FIGURE L13.17
Layout of Rajas manufacturing cell.

TABLE L13.6 Distances between Stations at Rajas Manufacturing Cell

From

To

Distance (feet)

Arrival station
Lathe
Mill 1
Mill 2
Exit

Lathe
Mill 1
Mill 2
Exit
Arrive

40
80
60
50
80

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FIGURE L13.18
Locations at Rajas manufacturing cell.

FIGURE L13.19
Path networks at Rajas manufacturing cell.

FIGURE L13.20
Resource specication at Rajas manufacturing cell.

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FIGURE L13.21
Process and routing tables at Rajas manufacturing cell.

L13.3 Crane Systems

ProModel provides the constructs for modeling crane systems. The path networks
module and the resources module provide modeling features for the crane systems. Modeling one or multiple cranes operating in the same bay is easily possible. Users can dene the following regarding crane systems:
Crane envelope: The crane envelope is a parallelogram-shaped area
represented by a crane-type path network. Two rails and two lines
connecting the endpoints of the rails bound this envelope. The lines
connecting the endpoints of the rails are the two extreme positions of the
centerlines of the crane bridge.
Bridge separation distance: This is the minimum distance between the centerlines of any two neighboring cranes. Make sure to dene the crane envelope
as wide enough to allow sufcient space beyond any serviceable nodes.
Priorities: Two types of priorities are associated with the crane construct in
ProModel: resource request priority and crane move priority.
1. Resource request priorities are used to resolve any conicts between
multiple entities requesting the same crane at the same time. Lowerpriority tasks are preempted to serve higher-priority tasks.
2. Crane move priorities are used when multiple cranes are operating in the
same work envelope to decide which crane has priority over another to
move. Crane move priorities can be subdivided into three categories:
a. Task move priority is used as the base move priority for travel to pick
up and travel to drop a load.
b. Claim priority is the same as the task move priority if the crane is
moving to its ultimate (task) destination. Otherwise, if it is moving
under the inuence of another crane, claim priority is equal to the
claim priority of the claim inducer bridge.
c. Effective claim priority applies only when there are three or more
cranes operating in the same envelope. If multiple cranes are moving
in the same direction with overlapping claims, the effective claim
priority in the overlapping zone is the maximum of all the claim
priorities of those cranes.
For more details on crane operations, and in particular to understand how
zone claims are handled, please refer to the ProModel Reference Guide.

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Problem Statement
Pritha takes over the manufacturing operation (Section L13.2.4) from Raja and renames it Prithas manufacturing cell. After taking over, she installs an overhead
crane system to handle all the material movements between the stations. Job
pickup and release times by the crane are uniformly distributed between six and
eight seconds. The coordinates of all the locations in the cell are given in
Table L13.7. The crane can travel at the rate of 150 feet/minute with or without a
load. Simulate for 80 hours.
Five locations (Lathe, Mill 1, Mill 2, Exit_Station, and Arrive_Station) are dened for Prithas manufacturing cell. The path networks, crane system resource,
and processes and routings are shown in Figures L13.22, L13.23, and L13.24.
FIGURE L13.22
Path networks for the crane system at Prithas manufacturing cell.

TABLE L13.7 Coordinates of All the Locations in Prithas

Manufacturing Cell (in feet)
Location

X (Rail)

Y (Bridge)

Arriving
Lathe
Mill 1
Mill 2
Exit

10
50
90
80
0

100
80
80
20
20

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FIGURE L13.23
The crane system resource dened.

FIGURE L13.24
Process and routing tables dened for Prithas manufacturing cell.

Select Path Network from the Build menu. From the Type menu, select
Crane. The following four nodes are automatically created when we select the
crane type of path network: Origin, Rail1 End, Rail2 End, and Bridge End. Dene
the ve nodes N1 through N5 to represent the three machines, the arrival station,
and the exit station. Click on the Interface button in the Path Network menu and
dene all the interfaces for these ve nodes.
Select Resource from the Build menu. Name the crane resource. Enter 1 in
the Units column (one crane unit). Click on the Specs. button. The Specications
menu opens up. Select Net1 for the path network. Enter the empty and full speed
of the crane as 150 ft/min. Also, enter Uniform(3 1) seconds as the pickup and
deposit time.

L13.4 Exercises
1. Consider the DumpOnMe facility in Exercise 11 of Section L7.12 with
the following enhancements. Consider the dump trucks as material
handling resources. Assume that 10 loads of coal arrive to the loaders
every hour (randomly; the interarrival time is exponentially
distributed). Create a simulation model, with animation, of this system.
Simulate for 100 days, eight hours each day. Collect statistics to
estimate the loader and scale utilization (percentage of time busy).
About how many trucks are loaded each day on average?
2. For the Widgets-R-Us Manufacturing Inc. example in Section L12.5.1,
consider that a maintenance mechanic (a resource) will be hired to do the

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repair work on the lathe and the mill. Modify the simulation model and run
it for 2000 hours. What is the utilization of the maintenance mechanic?
Hint: Dene maintenance_mech as a resource. In the Logic eld of the
Clock downtimes for Lathe enter the following code:
GET maintenance_mech
DISPLAY "The Lathe is Down for Maintenance"
Wait N(10,2) min
FREE maintenance_mech

Enter similar code for the Mill.

3. At Forge Inc. raw forgings arrive at a circular conveyor system
(Figure L13.25). They await a loader in front of the conveyor belt.
The conveyor delivers the forgings (one foot long) to three machines
located one after the other. A forging is off-loaded to a machine only if
the machine is not in use. Otherwise, the forging moves on to the next
machine. If the forging cannot gain access to any machine in a given
pass, it is recirculated. The conveyor moves at 30 feet per minute. The
distance from the loading station to the rst machine is 30 feet. The
distance between each machine is 10 feet. The distance from the last
machine back to the loader is 30 feet. Loading and unloading take
30 seconds each. Forgings arrive to the loader with an exponential
interarrival time and a mean of 10 seconds. The machining times are
also exponentially distributed with a mean of 20 seconds. Simulate the
conveyor system for 200 hours of operation.
a. Collect statistics to estimate the loader and machine utilizations.
b. What is the average time a forging spends in the system?
c. What fraction of forgings cannot gain access to the machines in
the rst pass and need to be recirculated?
d. What is the production rate of forgings per hour at Forge Inc.?
FIGURE L13.25

Forging

Layout of Forge Inc.

Loader

Forge Inc.

Mach 1

Mach 2

Mach 3

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4. U.S. Construction Company has one bulldozer, four trucks, and two
loaders. The bulldozer stockpiles material for the loaders. Two piles of
material must be stocked prior to the initiation of any load operation.
The time for the bulldozer to stockpile material is Erlang distributed
and consists of the sum of two exponential variables, each with a mean
of 4 (this corresponds to an Erlang variable with a mean of 8 and a
variance of 32). In addition to this material, a loader and an unloaded
truck must be available before the loading operation can begin. Loading
time is exponentially distributed with a mean time of 14 minutes for
server 1 and 12 minutes for server 2.
After a truck is loaded, it is hauled and then dumped; it must be
returned before it is available for further loading. Hauling time is
normally distributed. When loaded, the average hauling time is
22 minutes. When unloaded, the average time is 18 minutes. In both
cases, the standard deviation is three minutes. Dumping time is uniformly
distributed between two and eight minutes. Following a loading
operation, the loader must rest for ve minutes before it is available to
begin loading again. Simulate this system at the U.S. Construction Co.
for a period of one year (2000 working hours) and analyze it.
5. At Walnut Automotive, machined castings arrive randomly
(exponential, mean of six minutes) from the supplier to be assembled at
one of ve identical engine assembly stations. A forklift truck delivers
the castings from the shipping dock to the engine assembly department.
A loop conveyor connects the assembly stations.
The forklift truck moves at a velocity of ve feet per second. The distance from the shipping dock to the assembly department is 1000 feet. The
conveyor is 5000 feet long and moves at a velocity of ve feet per second.
At each assembly station, no more than three castings can be
waiting for assembly. If a casting arrives at an assembly station and
there is no room for the casting (there are already three castings
waiting), it goes around for another try. The assembly time is normally
distributed with a mean of ve minutes and standard deviation of two
minutes. The assembly stations are equally distributed around the belt.
The load/unload station is located halfway between stations 5 and 1.
The forklift truck delivers the castings to the load/unload station. It also
picks up the completed assemblies from the load/unload station and
delivers them back to the shipping dock.
Create a simulation model, with animation, of this system. Run the
simulation model until 1000 engines have been assembled.
a. What is the average throughput time for the engines in the
manufacturing system?
b. What are the utilization gures for the forklift truck and the conveyor?
c. What is the maximum number of engines in the manufacturing system?
d. What are the maximum and average numbers of castings on the
conveyor?

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6. At the Grocery Warehouse, a sorting system consists of one incoming

conveyor and three sorting conveyors, as shown in Figure L13.26.
Cases enter the system from the left at a rate of 100 per minute at
random times. The incoming conveyor is 150 feet long. The sorting
conveyors are 100 feet long. They are numbered 1 to 3 from left to right
and are 10 feet apart. The incoming conveyor runs at 10 feet per minute
and all the sorting conveyors at 15 feet per minute. All conveyors are
accumulating type. Incoming cases are distributed to the three lanes in
the following proportions: Lane 130 percent; Lane 250 percent;
and Lane 320 percent.
At the end of each sorting conveyor, a sorter (from a group of
available sorters) scans each case with a bar code scanner, applies a
label, and then places the case on a pallet. One sorter can handle
10 cases per minute on the average (normally distributed with a
standard deviation of 0.5 minute).
When a pallet is full (40 cases), a forklift arrives from the shipping
dock to take it away, unload the cases, and bring back the empty pallet
to an empty pallet queue near the end of the sorting conveyor. A total
of ve pallets are in circulation. The data shown in Table 13.8 are
available for the forklift operation.
FIGURE L13.26
The conveyor sorting system at the Grocery Warehouse.
Incoming conveyor

Lane 1

Lane 2

Lane 3

Group of sorters

Shipping
dock

TABLE 13.8 Forklift Operation Data Collected

at the Grocery Warehouse
Load time
Unload time
Travel speed (with and without load)
Distance from shipping dock
to sorting conveyors

1 min.
3 min.
10 ft./min
250 ft.

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Simulate for one year (250 working days, eight hours each day).
Answer the following questions:
a. How many sorters are required? The objective is to have the minimum
number of sorters but also avoid overowing the conveyors.
b. How many forklifts do we need?
c. Report on the sorter utilization, total number of cases shipped, and
the number of cases palletized by lane.
7. Repeat Exercise 6 with a dedicated sorter in each sorting lane. Address
all the same issues.
8. Printed circuit boards arrive randomly from the preparation department.
The boards are moved in sets of ve by a hand truck to the component
assembly department, where the board components are manually assembled. Five identical assembly stations are connected by a loop conveyor.
When boards are placed onto the conveyor, they are directed to the
assembly station with the fewest boards waiting to be processed. After
the components are assembled onto the board, they are set aside and
removed for inspection at the end of the shift. The time between boards
arriving from preparation is exponentially distributed with a mean of
ve seconds. The hand truck moves at a velocity of ve feet per second
and the conveyor moves at a velocity of two feet per second. The
conveyor is 100 feet long. No more than 20 boards can be placed on the
belt at any one time.
At each assembly station, no more than two boards can be waiting
for assembly. If a board arrives at an assembly station and there is no
room for the board (there are already two boards waiting), the board
goes around the conveyor another time and again tries to enter the
station. The assembly time is normally distributed with a mean of
35 seconds and standard deviation of 8 seconds. The assembly stations
are uniformly distributed around the belt, and boards are placed onto
the belt four feet before the rst station. After all ve boards are placed
onto the belt, the hand truck waits until ve boards have arrived from
the preparation area before returning for another set of boards.
Simulate until 100 boards have been assembled. Report on the
utilization of the hand truck, conveyor, and the ve operators. How
many assemblies are produced at each of the ve stations? (Adapted
from Hoover and Perry, 1989.)
9. In this example we will model the assembly of circuit boards at four
identical assembly stations located along a closed loop conveyor
(100 feet long) that moves at 15 feet per minute. The boards are
assembled from kits, which are sent in totes from a load/unload station
to the assembly stations via the top loop of the conveyor. Each kit can
be assembled at any one of the four assembly stations. Completed
boards are returned in their totes from the assembly stations back to the
loading /unloading station. The loading/unloading station (located at the
left end of the conveyor) and the four assembly stations (identied by
the letters A through D) are equally spaced along the conveyor, 20 feet

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apart. The time to assemble each kit is N(7,2) minutes. If an assembly

station is busy when a tote arrives, it moves to the next station. Loading
and unloading a tote to/from the conveyor takes N(2,0.2) minutes each.
Since each tote is one foot long, at most 100 totes will t on the
conveyor at one time. Kits arrive at the load/unload station with an
average interarrival time of ve minutes, exponentially distributed.
Simulate for 1000 hours. Answer the following questions:
a. What are the average and maximum numbers of kits in the system?
b. What is the number of assemblies produced and shipped per hour?
c. What are the average and maximum times spent by a kit in the system?
d. What are the utilizations of the four assembly stations?
e. What percentage of kits go around the conveyor more than once
before being assembled?
f. Should we consider installing more assembly stations? Fewer?
10. At the Assam Plywood Mill, logs arrive to the mill in truckloads of 15
each, according to a Poisson process distributed with a mean of 1.3 feet
and a standard deviation of 0.3 foot. The logs are precut to a standard
length of 8 feet, 16 feet, or 24 feet before their arrival to the mill,
with a distribution by length of 20 percent, 50 percent, and 30 percent
respectively. The arriving logs are unloaded into a bin, from which they
are loaded one at a time onto a conveyor. Sensor devices automatically
control this loading operation so that the next log is kicked onto the
conveyor as soon as sufcient space is available.
The conveyor moves the logs at a speed of 40 feet/minute to a
peeling machine, which debarks the logs and peels them into wood
strips. These strips are dried and glued together in subsequent phases of
the operation to produce plywood. The peeling machine accepts only
logs that are 8 feet long. Therefore, the 16-foot and the 24-foot logs
must be cut into 8-foot sections before arriving to the peeling machine.
This sectioning is done at an automatic cutting station located 32 feet
from the start of the conveyor. Whenever the leading end of a 16-foot
or 24-foot log reaches the 40-foot mark, the conveyor is automatically
stopped and a vertical cut is made at the 32-foot mark. This operation
requires 0.5 minute, after which the conveyor can be restarted.
The peeling machine is located beginning at the 48-foot mark along
the conveyor. Whenever the trailing end of a log reaches this point, the
conveyor is stopped and the log is ready to be moved from the conveyor
and loaded into the peeling machine. The loading operation requires 0.8
minute. At the end of this time the conveyor can be restarted, and the
debarking/peeling operation begins. The peeling machine processes one
8-foot log at a time at the rate of 20 cubic feet of log per minute.
Simulate the system for 2400 minutes to determine the throughput
of wood in cubic feet, the utilization of the peeler, and the number of
feet of conveyor occupied.
11. At Orem Casting Company, rough castings arrive for machining
according to a normal distribution with a mean of 60 seconds and a

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standard deviation of 15 seconds. An inspector examines the castings

for cracks. Approximately 15 percent of the castings are rejected and
scrapped. Three automatic CNC milling machines are used to machine
the remaining castings. Two loaders (material handlers) load the mills
in a time that is uniformly distributed from 35 to 95 seconds. The
loaders will always try to load a casting into an empty machine before
waiting for a mill to become available. The milling operation takes a
time that varies according to a triangular distribution with a minimum,
mode, and maximum of 50, 100, and 130 seconds. The loaders also
remove the milled castings in a time that is uniformly distributed from
30 to 60 seconds. Simulate the operation of the company until 1000
castings are machined.
a. What is the average number of castings in the shop?
b. What is the maximum number of castings in the shop?
c. How many castings did the inspector reject?
d. What is the utilization of the loaders and the machines?
e. Should we increase the number of loaders? Should we decrease them?
12. At the Washington Logging Company, a logging operation involves
cutting a tree, which takes 25 minutes on the average. This time is
normally distributed with a standard deviation of 10 minutes. The
weight of a tree varies uniformly from 1000 to 1500 pounds, based on
the density of r. The logging company has ve trucks with a capacity
of 30 tons each. The truck will not move the trees to the sawmill until
at least 15 tons of trees are loaded. The trip to the sawmill takes
two hours, and the return trip also requires two hours. The truck takes
20 minutes to unload at the sawmill. Develop a simulation model of
this facility. Determine whether the logging operation has sufcient
capability to deliver all the trees cut in one month. The logging
operation runs eight hours each day, 20 days a month.
Embellishments:
a. Include in the model the logging of alder trees in addition to r trees.
The alder trees are also cut in 25 minutes and segregated at the cutting
site. The alder trees have weights ranging from 1500 to 2000 pounds,
uniformly distributed. The trucks transport the alder and r trees in
separate trips.
b. Vary the minimum requirement of trees that are loaded on a truck
from 15 to 20 to 25 tons to determine the effect on throughput of this
decision variable.
13. Rancho Cucamonga Coil Company is considering implementing a
crane system as shown in Figure L13.27. Two cranes operate on separate
tracks. Crane 1 serves only input station A and is used to transport steel
cables to either output station C or D. Crane 2 transports copper cables
from input station B to either output station D or E. The distances
between the input and output stations are shown in Table 13.9.
The arrival rate of steel cables to input station A is four rolls per
hour (exponential), with 50 percent of the rolls sent to output station C

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FIGURE L13.27

Steel coils

Copper coils

Crane system at the

Rancho Cucamonga
Coil Company.

Input
station A

Input
station B

Crane 1
Crane 2
Output
station C

Output
station D

Output
station E

TABLE 13.9 Distances Between Stations at the Rancho

Cucamonga Coil Company
From

To

Distance (feet)

Input A
Input A
Input A
Input B

Output C
Output D
Input B
Output E

100
150
300
100

and 50 percent to output station D. The arrival rate of copper cables to

input station B is two rolls per hour (exponential), with 40 percent of
the rolls sent to output station D and 60 percent to output station E. The
travel speeds of both the cranes are 20 feet/minute without load and
10 feet/minute with load. The pickup and drop-off times are two minutes each. Simulate the crane system and collect statistics on the
throughput from each input station to each output station.
Embellishments:
a. What will be the impact on throughput if the cranes run on a single
track with output station D being on the common path of both the
cranes? Model the interference in reaching output station D.
b. Establish a cost structure to evaluate and compare the single track
(with interference) versus the separate track crane systems.
c. Evaluate the impact of giving priority to jobs that do not require the
common trackthat is, to jobs destined for output stations C and E.

Reference
S. V. Hoover and R. F. Perry, Simulation: A Problem Solving Approach, Addison Wesley,
1989, pp. B93B95.

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14

ADDITIONAL MODELING
CONCEPTS

All things good to know are difcult to learn.

Greek Proverb

In this lab we discuss some of the advanced but very useful concepts in ProModel.
In Section L14.1 we model a situation where customers balk (leave) when there is
congestion in the system. In Section L14.2 we introduce the concepts of macros
and runtime interfaces. In Section L14.3 we show how to generate multiple scenarios for the same model. In Section L14.4 we discuss how to run multiple replications. In Section L14.5 we show how to set up and import data from external
les. In Section L14.6 we discuss arrays of data. Table functions are introduced in
Section L14.7. Subroutines are explained with examples in Section L14.8. Section L14.9 introduces the concept of arrival cycles. Section L14.10 shows the use
of user distributions. Section L14.11 introduces the concepts and use of random
number streams.

L14.1 Balking of Customers

Balking occurs when a customer looks at the size of a queue and decides to leave
instead of entering the queue because it is too long. Balking is modeled by limiting the capacity or the number of entities that are allowed in the queue. Any
customer that arrives when the queue is full must go away. This means loss of
customers, loss of business, and lost opportunities.
Problem Statement
All American Car Wash is a ve-stage operation that takes 2 1 minutes for
each stage of wash (Figure L14.1). The queue for the car wash facility can hold up
to three cars. The cars move through the washing stages in order, one car not being
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FIGURE L14.1
Locations and layout of All American Car Wash.

FIGURE L14.2
Customer arrivals at All American Car Wash.

able to move until the car ahead of it moves. Cars arrive every 2.5 2 minutes for
a wash. If a car cannot get into the car wash facility, it drives across the street to
Better Car Wash. Simulate for 100 hours.
a. How many customers does All American Car Wash lose to its
competition per hour (balking rate per hour)?
b. How many cars are served per hour?
c. What is the average time spent by a customer at the car wash facility?
The customer arrivals and processes/routings are dened as shown in Figures L14.2 and L14.3. The simulation run hours are set at 100. The total number
of cars that balked and went away to the competition across the street is 104 in
100 hours (Figure L14.4). That is about 10.4 cars per hour. The total number of
customers served is 2377 in 100 hours (Figure L14.5). That is about 23.77 cars per
hour. We can also see that, on average, the customers spent 14 minutes in the car
wash facility.

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FIGURE L14.3
Process and routing tables at All American Car Wash.

FIGURE L14.4
Cars that balked.

FIGURE L14.5
Customers served.

L14.2 Macros and Runtime Interface

If text, a set of statements, or a block of code is used many times in the model, it
is convenient to substitute a macro and use the macro as many times as needed.
Macros are created and edited in the following manner:
1. Select More Elements from the Build menu.
2. Select Macros.

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The runtime interface (RTI) is a useful feature through which the user can interact with and supply parameters to the model without having to rewrite it. Every
time the simulation is run, the RTI allows the user to change model parameters
dened in the RTI. The RTI provides a user-friendly menu to change only
the macros that the modeler wants the user to change. An RTI is a custom interface dened by a modeler that allows others to modify the model or conduct
multiple-scenario experiments without altering the actual model data. All changes
are saved along with the model so they are preserved from run to run. RTI parameters are based on macros, so they may be used to change any model parameter
that can be dened using a macro (that is, any eld that allows an expression or
any logic denition).
An RTI is created and used in the following manner:
1. Select Macros from the Build menu and type in a macro ID.
2. Click the RTI button and choose Dene from the submenu. This opens
the RTI Denition dialog box.
3. Enter the Parameter Name that you want the macro to represent.
4. Enter an optional Prompt to appear for editing this model parameter.
5. Select the parameter type, either Unrestricted Text or Numeric Range.
6. For numeric parameters:
a. Enter the lower value in the From box.
b. Enter the upper value in the To box.
7. Click OK.
8. Enter the default text or numeric value in the Macro Text eld.
9. Use the macro ID in the model to refer to the runtime parameter (such
as operation time or resource usage time) in the model.
10. Before running the model, use the Model Parameters dialog box or the
Scenarios dialog box to edit the RTI parameter.
Problem Statement
Widgets-R-Us Inc. receives various kinds of widget orders. Raw castings of widgets arrive in batches of one every ve minutes. Some widgets go from the raw
material store to the mill, and then on to the grinder. Other widgets go directly to
the grinder. After grinding, all widgets go to degrease for cleaning. Finally, all
widgets are sent to the nished parts store. The milling and grinding times vary
depending on the widget design. However, the degrease time is seven minutes per
widget. The layout of Widgets-R-Us is shown in Figure L14.6.
Dene a runtime interface to allow the user to change the milling and grinding times every time the simulation is run. Also, allow the user to change the total
quantity of widgets being processed. Track the work-in-process inventory (WIP)
of widgets. In addition, dene another variable to track the production (PROD_QTY)
of nished widgets.
The macros are dened as shown in Figure L14.7. The runtime interface for
the milling time is shown in Figure L14.8. Figure L14.9 shows the use of the
parameters Mill_Time and Grind_Time in the process and routing tables. To

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FIGURE L14.6
Layout of
Widgets-R-Us.

FIGURE L14.7
Macros created for Widgets-R-Us simulation model.

FIGURE L14.8
The runtime interface
dened for the milling
operation.

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FIGURE L14.9
The process and routing tables showing the Mill_Time and Grind_Time parameters.

FIGURE L14.10

FIGURE L14.11

Model Parameters in the

Simulation menu.

The Model Parameters dialog box.

FIGURE L14.12
The
Grind_Time_Halfwidth
parameter dialog box.

view or change any of the model parameters, select Model Parameters from
the Simulation menu (Figure L14.10). The model parameters dialog box is
shown in Figure L14.11. To change the Grind_Time_Halfwidth, rst select it
from the model parameters list, and then press the Change button. The
Grind_Time_Halfwidth dialog box is shown in Figure L14.12.

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L14.3 Generating Scenarios

When a modeler alters one or more input parameters or elements of the model, he
or she creates model scenarios. For example, running a model rst with 5 units of
pallets and then with 10 units to test the effect of increased resource availability is
the same thing as creating two scenarios.
A model builder has the option of dening multiple scenarios for a model
using the runtime interface. Using scenarios allows the model user to alter various
model parameters to run a series of what-if analyses without changing the model
directly. This technique makes it easy for analysts who have no interest in dealing
with the nuts and bolts of a model to make changes safely and conveniently to the
model to learn what would happen under a variety of circumstances.
The Scenarios dialog box is accessed from the Simulation menu (Figure L14.13). Scenarios are saved with the model for future use. They are created
using the Scenarios dialog box (Figure L14.14).
For the Shipping Boxes Unlimited example in Lab 7, Section L7.7.2, generate two scenarios (Figure L14.14):
Scenario 1: Five pallets in circulation in the system.
Scenario 2: Ten pallets in circulation in the system.
Dene a model parameter for the number of pallets in the system (no_of_pallets) in the runtime interface. The RTI dialog box is obtained from the Build/More
Elements/Macros menu. Edit the scenarios (Figure L14.15) and change the parameter no_of_pallets to the values of 5 and 10, respectively, for the two scenarios.
In the Arrivals menu, change the occurrences for Pallet to the parameter name
no_of_pallets. This parameter will take on the values of 5 and 10 in scenarios 1
and 2, respectively (Figure L14.16).
To run the scenarios, click on the Run Scenarios button in the Scenarios dialog box. Both scenarios will be run in a sequential manner, and reports for both
scenarios will be created (Figure L14.17).
FIGURE L14.13

FIGURE L14.14

The Scenarios menu.

Scenarios dened for Shipping Boxes Unlimited in Section L7.7.2.

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FIGURE L14.15
Editing the scenario
parameter.

FIGURE L14.16
Arrivals table for Shipping Boxes Unlimited in Section L7.7.2.

FIGURE L14.17
Reports created for both the scenarios.

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L14.4 External Files

External les are used to read data directly into the simulation model or to write
output data from the simulation model. External les are also used to store and
access process sheets, arrival schedules, shift schedules, bills of material, delivery schedules, and so forth. All external les used with a model must be listed
in the External Files Editor and are accessed from the Build menu. All external
les must be generally in the .WK1 format only and can be of the following
six types.
General Read File. These les contain numeric values read into a simulation
model using a READ statement. A space, comma, or end of line can separate the
data values. Any nonnumeric data are skipped automatically. The syntax of the
READ statement is as follows:
READ <le ID>, <variable name>

If the same le is to be read more than once in the model, it may be necessary to
reset the le between each reading. This can be achieved by adding an arbitrary
end-of-le marker 99999 and the following two lines of code:
Read MydataFile1, Value1
If Value1D99999 Then Reset MydataFile1

The data stored in a general read le must be in ASCII format. Most spreadsheet
programs (Lotus 1-2-3, Excel, and others) can convert spreadsheets to ASCII les
(MydataFile1.TXT).
General Write. These les are used to write text strings and numeric values
using the WRITE and WRITELINE statements. Text strings are enclosed in quotes
when written to the le, with commas automatically appended to strings. This enables the les to be read into spreadsheet programs like Excel or Lotus 1-2-3 for
viewing. Write les can also be written using the XWRITE statement, which gives
the modeler full control over the output and formatting. If you write to the same
le more than once, either during multiple replications or within a single replication, the new data are appended to the previous data.
The WRITE statement writes to a general write le. The next item is written to
the le immediately after the previous item. Any le that is written to with the
WRITE statement becomes an ASCII text le and ProModel attaches an end-of-le
marker automatically when it closes the le.
WRITE <le ID>, <string or numeric expression>

The WRITELINE statement writes information to a general write le and

starts a new line. It always appends to the le unless you have RESET the le.
Any le that is written to with the WRITELINE statement becomes an ASCII text
le, and ProModel attaches an end-of-le marker automatically when it closes
the le.
The syntax of the WRITE, WRITELINE, and the XWRITE statements is as follows:
WRITE MyReport, Customer Service Completed At:
WRITELINE MyReport, CLOCK(min)

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The XWRITE statement allows the user to write in any format he or she chooses.
XWRITE <le ID>, <string or numeric expression>
XWRITE MyReport2, Customer Service Completed At: $FORMAT(Var1,5,2)

Entity Location. An entitylocation le contains numeric expressions listed by

entity and location names. Entity names should appear across the top row, beginning in column 2, while location names should be entered down the rst column
beginning in row 2. A numeric expression for each entitylocation combination is
entered in the cell where the names intersect. These les are always in .WK1
format. Both Excel and Lotus 1-2-3 les can be saved in .WK1 format. When
saving an entitylocation le, make sure to choose Save As from the File menu
(Excel or Lotus 1-2-3) and change the le format to .WK1. Other .TXT les
also can be opened in Excel or Lotus 1-2-3 and, after minor editing, saved in .WK1
format.
Arrival. An arrivals le is a spreadsheet le (.WK1 format only) containing arrival information normally specied in the Arrival Editor. One or more arrival
les may be dened and referenced in the External Files Editor. Arrival les are
automatically read in following the reading of the Arrival Editor data. The column
entries must be as in Table L14.1.
Shift. A shift le record is automatically created in the External Files Editor when
a shift is assigned to a location or resource. If shifts have been assigned, the name(s)
of the shift le(s) will be created automatically in the External Files Editor. Do not
attempt to create a shift le record in the External Files Editor yourself.
.DLL. A .DLL le is needed when using external subroutines through the
XSUB() function.
Problem Statement
At the Pomona Castings, Inc., castings arrive for processing at the rate of 12 per
hour (average interarrival time assumed to be ve minutes). Seventy percent

Table L14.1

Entries in an External Arrivals File

Column

Data

A
B
C
D
E
F
G

Entity name
Location name
Quantity per arrival
Time of rst arrival
Number of arrivals
Frequency of arrivals
Attribute assignments

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FIGURE L14.18
An external
entity-location le
in .WK1 format.

FIGURE L14.19
File ID and le name created for the external le.

FIGURE L14.20
The process table referring to the le ID of the external le.

of the castings are processed as casting type A, while the rest are processed as
casting type B.
For Pomona Castings, Inc., create an entitylocation le named P14_5 .WK1
to store the process routing and process time information (Figure L14.18). In
the simulation model, read from this external le to obtain all the process
information. Build a simulation model and run it for 100 hours. Keep track of the
work-in-process inventory and the production quantity.
Choose Build/More Elements/External Files. Dene the ID as SvcTms. The
Type of le is Entity Location. The le name (and the correct path) is also provided
(Figure L14.19). In the Process denition, use the le ID (Figure L14.20) instead of
the actual process timefor example, WAIT SvcTms(). Change the le path to
point to the appropriate directory and drive where the external le is located. A
snapshot of the simulation model is shown in Figure L14.21.

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FIGURE L14.21
A snapshot of the
simulation model for
Pomona Castings, Inc.

L14.5 Arrays
An array is a collection of values that are related in some way such as a list of test
scores, a collection of measurements from some experiment, or a sales tax table.
An array is a structured way of representing such data.
An array can have one or more dimensions. A two-dimensional array is useful when the data can be arranged in rows and columns. Similarly, a threedimensional array is appropriate when the data can be arranged in rows, columns,
and ranks. When several characteristics are associated with the data, still higher
dimensions may be appropriate, with each dimension corresponding to one of
these characteristics.
Each cell in an array works much like a variable. A reference to a cell in an
array can be used anywhere a variable can be used. Cells in arrays are usually initialized to zero, although initializing cells to some other value can be done in the
initialization logic. A WHILE-DO loop can be used for initializing array cell values.
Suppose that electroplating bath temperatures are recorded four times a day
at each of three locations in the tank. These temperature readings can be arranged
in an array having four rows and three columns (Table L14.2). These 12 data
items can be conveniently stored in a two-dimensional array named Temp[4,3]
with four rows and three columns.
An external Excel le (BathTemperature.xls) contains these bath temperature
data (Figure L14.22). The information from this le can be imported into an array
in ProModel (Figure L14.23) using the Array Editor. When you import data from
an external Excel spreadsheet into an array, ProModel loads the data from left to
right, top to bottom. Although there is no limit to the quantity of values you may
use, ProModel supports only two-dimensional arrays. Figure L14.24 shows the
Import File dialog in the Array Editor.

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FIGURE L14.22
An external le
containing bath
temperatures.

FIGURE L14.23
The Array Editor in ProModel.

FIGURE L14.24
The Import File dialog
in the Array Editor.

TABLE L14.2 Electroplating Bath Temperatures

Time

Location 1

Location 2

Location 3

1
2
3
4

75.5
78.8
80.4
78.5

78.7
78.9
79.4
79.1

72.0
74.5
76.3
75.8

Value of an array can also be exported to an Excel spreadsheet (*.xls) during

the termination logic. Microsoft Excel must have been installed in your computer
in order to export data from an array at runtime. Array exporting can be turned off
in the Simulations Options dialog.

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Problem Statement
Table L14.3 shows the status of orders at the beginning of the month at Joes Jobshop. In his shop, Joe has three machines through which three types of jobs are
routed. All jobs go to all machines, but with different routings. The data for job
routings and processing times (exponential) are given in Table L14.4. The
processing times are given in minutes. Use a one-dimensional array to hold the information on the order status. Simulate and nd out how long it will take for Joe
to nish all his pending orders.
The layout, locations, and arrival of jobs at Joes Jobshop are shown in
Figures L14.25, L14.26, and L14.27. The pending order array is shown in

FIGURE L14.25
Layout of Joes Jobshop.

TABLE L14.3 Data for Pending Orders

at Joes Jobshop

TABLE L14.4 Process Routings and Average

Process Times

Jobs

Number of Pending Orders

Jobs

Machines

Process Times

A
B
C

25
27
17

A
B
C

231
123
312

456075
707050
506060

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Figure L14.28. The initialization logic is shown in Figure L14.29. The processes
and routings are shown in Figure L14.30.
It took about 73 hours to complete all the pending work orders. At eight
hours per day, it took Joe a little over nine days to complete the backlog of
orders.

FIGURE L14.26
Locations at Joes Jobshop.

FIGURE L14.27
Arrival of jobs at Joes Jobshop.

FIGURE L14.28
Pending order array for Joes Jobshop.

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FIGURE L14.29
Initialization logic in the General Information menu.

FIGURE L14.30
Process and routing tables for Joes Jobshop.

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L14.6 Table Functions

Table functions are a useful way to specify and set up relationships between
independent and dependent variables. A table function editor is provided in ProModel to build tables. This feature is especially useful when building empirical
distributions or functions into a model. Table functions are dened by the user and
return a dependent value based on the independent value passed as the function argument. Independent values are entered in ascending order. The dependent value
is calculated by linear interpolation. For a linear function, only two endpoints are
needed. For a nonlinear function, more than two reference values are specied.
Problem Statement
Customers arrive at the Save Here Grocery store with a mean time between arrival (exponential) that is a function of the time of the day, (the number of hours
elapsed since the store opening), as shown in Table L14.5. The grocery store consists of two aisles and a cashier. Once inside the store, customers may choose to
shop in one, two, or none of the aisles. The probability of shopping aisle one is
0.75, and for aisle two it is 0.5. The number of items selected in each aisle is described by a normal distribution with a mean of 15 and a standard deviation of 5.
The time these shoppers require to select an item is ve minutes. When all desired
items have been selected, customers queue up at the cashier to pay for them. The
time to check out is a uniformly distributed random variable that depends on the
number of items purchased. The checkout time per item is 0.6 0.5 minutes
(uniformly distributed). Simulate for 10 days (16 hours/day).
The locations, the arrival of entities, the processes and routings, and the layout of the grocery store are shown in Figures L14.31, L14.32, L14.33, and
L14.34, respectively. The arrival frequency is derived from the table function
arrival time(HR):
e(arrival_time(CLOCK(HR) 16*TRUNC(CLOCK(HR)/16))) min

The table function arrival_time is shown in Figure L14.35.

TABLE L14.5 Time between Arrivals at Save Here Grocery

Time of Day

Time between Arrivals (minutes)

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16

50
40
25
20
20
20
25
30
30

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FIGURE L14.31
Locations in Save Here Grocery.

FIGURE L14.32
Arrivals at Save Here Grocery.

FIGURE L14.33
Process and routing tables for Save Here Grocery.

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FIGURE L14.34
The layout of Save Here Grocery.

FIGURE L14.35
The Table Functions
dialog box.

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L14.7 Subroutines
A subroutine is a separate section of code intended to accomplish a specic task.
It is a user-dened command that can be called upon to perform a block of logic
and optionally return a value. Subroutines may have parameters or local variables
(local to the subroutine) that take on the values of arguments passed to the subroutine. There are three variations for the use of subroutines in ProModel:
1. A subroutine is called by its name from the main block of code.
2. A subroutine is processed independently of the calling logic so that
the calling logic continues without waiting for the subroutine to nish.
An ACTIVATE statement followed by the name of the subroutine is
needed.
3. Subroutines written in an external programming language can be called
using the XSUB() function.
Subroutines are dened in the Subroutines Editor in the More Elements section of
the Build menu. For more information on ProModel subroutines, please refer to
the ProModel Users Guide.
Problem Statement
At California Gears, gear blanks are routed from a fabrication center to one of
three manual inspection stations. The operation logic for the gears is identical at
each station except for the processing times, which are a function of the individual inspectors. Each gear is assigned two attributes during fabrication. The rst attribute, OuterDia, is the dimension of the outer diameter of the gear. The second
attribute, InnerDia, is the dimension of the inner diameter of the gear. During the
fabrication process, the outer and inner diameters are machined with an average
of 4.015 0.01 and 2.015 0.01 (uniformly distributed). These dimensions are
tested at the inspection stations and the values entered into a text le (Quality.doc)
for quality tracking. After inspection, gears are routed to a shipping location if
they pass inspection, or to a scrap location if they fail inspection.
Gear blanks arrive at the rate of 12 per hour (interarrival time exponentially
distributed with a mean of ve minutes). The fabrication and inspection times
(normal) are shown in Table L14.6. The specication limits for the outer and inner

TABLE L14.6 Fabrication and Inspection Times at California Gears

Fabrication time
Inspector 1
Inspector 2
Inspector 3

Mean

Standard Deviation

3.2
4
5
4

0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1

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diameters are given in Table L14.7. The layout, locations, entities, and arrival of
raw material are shown in Figures L14.36, L14.37, L14.38, and L14.39 respectively. The subroutine dening routing logic is shown in Figure L14.40. Figure L14.41 shows the processes and routing logic. The external le in which
quality data will be written is dened in Figure L14.42. Figure L14.43 shows a
portion of the actual gear rejection report.

FIGURE L14.36
Layout of California Gears.

TABLE L14.7 The Specication Limits for Gears

Outer diameter
Inner diameter

Lower Specication
Limit

Upper Specication
Limit

4.01"
2.01"

4.02"
2.02"

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FIGURE L14.37
Locations at
California Gears.

FIGURE L14.38
Entities at California
Gears.

FIGURE L14.39
Arrival of raw material at California Gears.

FIGURE L14.40
Subroutine dening routing logic.

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FIGURE L14.41
Process and routing tables for California Gears.

FIGURE L14.42
External le for
California Gears.

FIGURE L14.43
Gear rejection report (partial) for California Gears.

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L14.8 Arrival Cycles

Sometimes the arrival of customers to a system follows a denite cyclic pattern.
Examples are arrival of ights to an airport, arrival of buses to a bus stand or
depot, trafc on the freeway, and customers coming to a takeout restaurant. Arrival cycles are dened in the Arrival Cycles edit table (Figure L14.44), which is
part of More Elements in the Build menu.
Arrivals can be expressed either as a percentage or in quantity. The arrival
percentage or quantity can be in either a cumulative or a noncumulative format.
The time is always specied in a cumulative format. Once the arrival cycles are
dened, they can be assigned to an arrivals record in the Arrivals edit table.
Problem Statement
At the Newport Beach Burger stand, there are three peak periods of customer arrivals: breakfast, lunch, and dinner (Table L14.8). The customer arrivals taper out
FIGURE L14.44
Arrival Cycles edit
menu.

TABLE L14.8 Customer Arrival Pattern at Newport Beach Burger

From

To

6:00 A.M.
6:30 A.M.
8:00 A.M.
11:00 A.M.
1:00 P.M.
5:00 P.M.
7:00 P.M.

6:30 A.M.
8:00 A.M.
11:00 A.M.
1:00 P.M.
5:00 P.M.
7:00 P.M.
9:00 P.M.

Percent
5
20
5
35
10
20
5

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before and after these peak periods. The same cycle of arrivals repeats every day. A
total of 100 customers visit the store on an average day (normal distribution with a
standard deviation of ve). Upon arrival, the customers take Uniform(5 2) minutes to order and receive food and Normal(15, 3) minutes to eat, nish business
discussions, gossip, read a newspaper, and so on. The restaurant currently has only
one employee (who takes the order, prepares the food, serves, and takes the
money). Simulate for 100 days.
The locations, processes and routings, arrivals, and arrival quantities are
shown in Figures L14.45, L14.46, L14.47, and L14.48, respectively. The arrival
cycles and the probability density function of arrivals at Newport Beach Burger
are shown in Figure L14.49. A snapshot of the simulation model is shown in
Figure L14.50.
FIGURE L14.45
Locations at Newport Beach Burger.

FIGURE L14.46
Process and routing tables at Newport Beach Burger.

FIGURE L14.47
Arrivals at Newport Beach Burger.

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FIGURE L14.48

FIGURE L14.49

Arrival quantity dened for the

Arrivals table.

Arrival cycles and probability density function of arrivals

dened at Newport Beach Burger.

FIGURE L14.50
A snapshot of Newport Beach Burger.

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L14.9 User Distributions

Sometimes it becomes necessary to use the data collected by the user directly instead of using one of the built-in distributions. User distribution tables can be accessed from Build/More Elements (Figure L14.51). These user-dened or empirical distributions can be either discrete or continuous. The user distributions can
be expressed in either a cumulative (cumulative density function or cdf) or a noncumulative (probability density function or pdf) fashion.
Problem Statement
The customers at the Newport Beach Burger stand arrive in group sizes of one,
two, three, or four with the probabilities shown in Table L14.9. The mean time between arrivals is 15 minutes (exponential). Ordering times have the probabilities

FIGURE L14.51
User Distributions
menu.

TABLE L14.9 Probability Density Function

of Customer Group Sizes
Group Size

Probability

1
2
3
4

.4
.3
.1
.2

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shown in Table L14.10. The probability density function of eating times are
shown in Table L14.11. Simulate for 100 hours.
The user distributions, group size distribution, order time distribution, and
eating time distribution are dened as shown in Figures L14.52, L14.53, L14.54,
and L14.55, respectively.
FIGURE L14.52
User distributions dened for Newport Beach Burger.

FIGURE L14.53

FIGURE L14.54

Group size distribution for Newport Beach Burger.

Order time distribution for Newport Beach Burger.

FIGURE L14.55
Eating time
distribution for
Newport Beach
Burger.

TABLE L14.10 Probability Density Function

of Ordering Times

TABLE L14.11 Probability Density Function

of Eating Times

Ordering Time

Probability

Eating Time

Probability

P(0 <= X < 3)

P(3 <= X < 4)
P(4 <= X < 5)
P(5 <= X < 8)
P(8 <= X)

.0
.35
.35
.3
.0

P(0 <= X < 10)

P(10 <= X < 12)
P(12 <= X < 14)
P(14 <= X < 16)
P(16 <= X)

.0
.3
.35
.35
.0

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L14.10 Random Number Streams

The sequence of random numbers generated by a given seed is referred to as a
random number stream. A random number stream is a sequence of an independently cycling series of random numbers. The number of distinct values generated
before the stream repeats is called the streams cycle length. Ideally, the cycle
length should be long enough so that values do not repeat within the simulation.
For a more thorough discussion on generating random numbers, please refer to
Section 3.4.1 in Chapter 3.
In ProModel, up to 100 streams may be used in the model. A random number
stream always generates numbers between 0 and 1, which are then used to sample
from various hypothetical distributions by a method called inverse transformation, which is discussed in Section 3.4.2 in Chapter 3.
By default, all streams use a seed value of 1. Also, the random number
streams are not reset between each replication if multiple replications are run. The
Streams editor is used to assign a different seed to any stream and also to reset the
seed value to the initial seed value between replications.
Problem Statement
Salt Lake Machine Shop has two machines: Mach A and Mach B. A maintenance
mechanic, mechanic Dan, is hired for preventive maintenance on these machines.
The mean time between preventive maintenance is 120 10 minutes. Both machines are shut down at exactly the same time. The actual maintenance takes
10 5 minutes. Jobs arrive at the rate of 7.5 per hour (exponential mean time between arrival). Jobs go to either Mach A or Mach B selected on a random basis.
Simulate for 100 hours.
The layout, resources, path network of the mechanic, and process and routing
tables are shown in Figures L14.56, L14.57, L14.58, and L14.59. The arrival
of customers is dened by an exponential interarrival time with a mean of three

FIGURE L14.56
Layout of Salt Lake
Machine Shop.

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minutes. The downtimes and the denition of random number streams are shown
in Figures L14.60 and L14.61, respectively. Note that the same seed value (Figure L14.61) is used in both the random number streams to ensure that both machines are shut down at exactly the same time.
FIGURE L14.57
Resources at Salt Lake Machine Shop.

FIGURE L14.58
Path network of the mechanic at Salt Lake Machine Shop.

FIGURE L14.59
Process and routing tables at Salt Lake Machine Shop.

FIGURE L14.60
Clock downtimes for machines A and B at Salt Lake Machine Shop.

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FIGURE L14.61
Denition of random
number streams.

L14.11 Exercises
1. Differentiate between the following:
a. Table functions versus arrays.
b. Subroutines versus macros.
c. Arrivals versus arrival cycles.
d. Scenarios versus replications.
e. Scenarios versus views.
f. Built-in distribution versus user distribution.
2. What are some of the advantages of using an external le in ProModel?
3. HiTek Molding, a small mold shop, produces three types of parts: Jobs
A, B, and C. The ratio of each part and the processing times (minimum,
mean, and maximum of a triangular distribution) are as follows:
Job Type

Ratio

Minimum

Mean

Maximum

Job A
Job B
Job C

0.4
0.5
0.1

30 sec.
20 sec.
90 sec.

60 sec.
30 sec.
120 sec.

90 sec.
40 sec.
200 sec.

Create an array (mold-time) and an external le (L14_11_3.xls) for the

molding processing time data.
Orders for jobs arrive at an average rate of four every minute (interarrival
time exponentially distributed). Each machine can mold any type of
job, one job at a time. Develop scenarios with one, two, three, or four
molding machines to compare with each other. Simulate each scenario
for 100 hours and compare them with each other. What would be the
appropriate criteria for such a comparison?
4. For the Southern California Airline (Exercise 4, Section L7.12), use
an external le to read interarrival and service time distribution data
directly into the simulation model.
5. For the Bengal Toy Company (Exercise 9, Section L7.12), use an
external le to store all the data. Read this le directly into the
simulation model.
6. In Exercise 1, of Section L12.14, use an array to store the process time
information for the ve pieces of equipment. Read this information
directly into the simulation model.

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7. For the Detroit ToolNDie plant (Exercise 14, Section L7.12), generate
the following three scenarios:
a. Scenario I: One tool crib clerk.
b. Scenario II: Two tool crib clerks.
c. Scenario III: Three tool crib clerks.
Run 10 replications of each scenario. Analyze and compare the results.
How many clerks would you recommend hiring?
8. In United Electronics (Exercise 7 in Section L7.12), use an array to
store the process time information. Read this information from an
external Excel spreadsheet into the simulation model.
9. For Salt Lake City Electronics (Exercise 10 in Section L7.12), use
external les (arrivals and entity_location les) to store all the data.
Read this le directly into the simulation model.
10. For Ghoshs Gear Shop example in Section L13.2.1, create macros
and suitable runtime interfaces for the following processing time
parameters:

Average machining time

Average washing time
Average inspection time

half width of machining time

half width of washing time
std. dev. of inspection time

11. West Coast Federal a drive-in bank, has one teller and space for ve
waiting cars. If a customer arrives when the line is full, he or she drives
around the block and tries again. Time between arrivals is exponential
with mean of 10 minutes. Time to drive around the block is normally
distributed with mean 3 min and standard deviation 0.6 min. Service
time is uniform at 9 3 minutes. Build a simulation model and run it
for 2000 hours (approximately one year of operation).
a. Collect statistics on time in queue, time in system, teller utilization,
number of customers served per hour, and number of customers
balked per hour.
b. Modify the model to allow two cars to wait after they are served to
get onto the street. Waiting time for trafc is exponential with a
mean of four minutes. Collect all the statistics from part a.
c. Modify the model to reect balking customers leaving the system
and not driving around the block. Collect all the same statistics. How
many customers are lost per hour?
d. The banks operating hours are 9 A.M. till 3 P.M. The drive-in facility
is closed at 2:30 P.M. Customers remaining in line are served until
the last customer has left the bank. Modify the model to reect these
changes. Run for 200 days of operation.
12. San Dimas Mutual Bank has two drive-in ATM kiosks in tandem but
only one access lane (Figure L14.62). In addition, there is one indoor

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FIGURE L14.62

San Dimas Mutual Bank

Layout of the San

Dimas Mutual Bank.

WalkIndoor ATM

Parking Lot
Drive-

ATM 1

ATM 2

ATM for customers who decide to park (30 percent of all customers)
and walk in. Customers arrive at intervals that are spaced on average
ve minutes apart (exponentially distributed). ATM customers are of
three typessave money (deposit cash or check), spend money
(withdraw cash), or count money (check balance). If both ATMs are
free when a customer arrives, the customer will use the downstream
ATM 2. A car at ATM 1 cannot pass a car at the ATM in front of it even
if it has nished.

Type of Customer

Fraction of All Customers

Time at ATM

Save Money
Spend Money
Count Money

1/3
1/2
1/6

Normal(7,2) minutes
Normal(5,2) minutes
Normal(3,1) minutes

Create a simulation model of San Dimas Mutual Bank. The ATM

kiosks operate 24/7. Run the model until 2000 cars have been served.
Analyze the following:
a. The average and maximum queue size.
b. The average and maximum time spent by a customer waiting in
queue.
c. The average and maximum time in the system.
d. Utilization of the three ATMs.
e. Number of customers served each hour.
Embellishment: Modify the model so that if four or more cars are in
the ATM drive-in system at the bank when the customer arrives, the
customer decides to park and walk in to use the ATM in the lobby. The

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time at this ATM is same as the drive-in ATMs. Run the model until
2000 cars have been served. Analyze the following:
a. Average and maximum number of customers deciding to park and
walk in. How big should the parking lot be?
b. The average and maximum drive-in queue size.
c. The average and maximum time spent by a customer waiting in the
drive-in queue.
d. The average and maximum walk-in queue size.
e. The average and maximum time spent by a customer waiting in the
walk-in queue.
f. The average and maximum time in the system.
g. Utilization of the three ATMs.
h. Number of customers served each hour.

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Appendixes

A. Common Continuous and

Discrete Distributions

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APPENDIX A
COMMON CONTINUOUS AND DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS*
A.1 Continuous Distributions
Beta Distribution (min, max, p, q)
f (x) =

1
(x min) p1 (max x)q 1
B( p, q)
(max min) p+q 1

min x max
min = minimum value of x
max = maximum value of x
p = lower shape parameter > 0
q = upper shape parameter > 0
B(p, q) = beta function


p
mean = (max min)
+ min
p+q



pq
variance = (max min)2
( p + q)2 ( p + q + 1)


p1

+ min
if p > 1, q > 1
(max

min)

p+q 2

min and max

if p < 1, q < 1
mode = min
if ( p < 1, q 1) or if ( p = 1, q > 1)

max
if ( p 1, q < 1) or if ( p > 1, q = 1)

does not uniquely exist

if p = q = 1
The beta distribution is a continuous distribution that has both upper and lower nite
bounds. Because many real situations can be bounded in this way, the beta distribution can
be used empirically to estimate the actual distribution before many data are available. Even
when data are available, the beta distribution should t most data in a reasonable fashion,
although it may not be the best t. The uniform distribution is a special case of the beta distribution with p, q = 1.
As can be seen in the examples that follow, the beta distribution can approach zero or
innity at either of its bounds, with p controlling the lower bound and q controlling the
upper bound. Values of p, q < 1 cause the beta distribution to approach innity at that
bound. Values of p, q > 1 cause the beta distribution to be nite at that bound.
Beta distributions have been used to model distributions of activity time in PERT analysis, porosity/void ratio of soil, phase derivatives in communication theory, size of progeny
in Escherichia coli, dissipation rate in breakage models, proportions in gas mixtures,
steady-state reectivity, clutter and power of radar signals, construction duration, particle
size, tool wear, and others. Many of these uses occur because of the doubly bounded nature
of the beta distribution.

*Adapted by permission from Stat::Fit Users Guide (South Kent, Connecticut: Geer Mountain
Software Corporation, 1997).

709

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A. Common Continuous and

Discrete Distributions

Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

Erlang Distribution (min, m, )

f (x) =


(x min)m1
[x min]
exp

m (m)

min = minimum x
m = shape factor = positive integer
= scale factor > 0
mean = min + m
variance = m2
mode = min + (m 1)

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The Erlang distribution is a continuous distribution bounded on the lower side. It is a

special case of the gamma distribution where the parameter m is restricted to a positive
integer. As such, the Erlang distribution has no region where f (x) tends to innity at the
minimum value of x [m < 1] but does have a special case at m = 1, where it reduces to
the exponential distribution.
The Erlang distribution has been used extensively in reliability and in queuing theory,
and thus in discrete event simulation, because it can be viewed as the sum of m exponentially distributed random variables, each with mean beta. It can be further generalized (see
Banks and Carson 1984; Johnson et al. 1994).
As can be seen in the examples, the Erlang distribution follows the exponential distribution at m = 1, has a positive skewness with a peak near 0 for m between 2 and 9, and tends
to a symmetrical distribution offset from the minimum at larger m.

Exponential Distribution (min, )

f (x) =


1
[x min]
exp

min = minimum x value

= scale parameter
mean = min +
variance = 2
mode = min

The exponential distribution is a continuous distribution bounded on the lower side. Its
shape is always the same, starting at a nite value at the minimum and continuously
decreasing at larger x. As shown in the example, the exponential distribution decreases
rapidly for increasing x.
The exponential distribution is frequently used to represent the time between random
occurrences, such as the time between arrivals at a specic location in a queuing model or
the time between failures in reliability models. It has also been used to represent the service
times of a specic operation. Further, it serves as an explicit manner in which the time
dependence on noise may be treated. As such, these models are making explicit use of
the lack of history dependence of the exponential distribution; it has the same set of

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Appendix A

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Discrete Distributions

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Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

probabilities when shifted in time. Even when exponential models are known to be
inadequate to describe the situation, their mathematical tractability provides a good starting
point. A more complex distribution such as Erlang or Weibull may be investigated (see
Johnson et al. 1994, p. 499; Law and Kelton 1991, p. 330).

Gamma Distribution (min, , )

f (x) =


(x min)1
[x min]
exp

()

min = minimum x
= shape parameter > 0
= scale parameter > 0
mean = min +
2
variance =

min + ( 1)
if 1
mode =
min
if < 1

The gamma distribution is a continuous distribution bounded at the lower side. It has
three distinct regions. For = 1, the gamma distribution reduces to the exponential distribution, starting at a nite value at minimum x and decreasing monotonically thereafter. For
< 1, the gamma distribution tends to innity at minimum x and decreases monotonically
for increasing x. For > 1, the gamma distribution is 0 at minimum x, peaks at a value that

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713

depends on both alpha and beta, and decreases monotonically thereafter. If is restricted
to positive integers, the gamma distribution is reduced to the Erlang distribution.
Note that the gamma distribution also reduces to the chi-square distribution for
min = 0, = 2, and = n/2. It can then be viewed as the distribution of the sum of
squares of independent unit normal variables, with n degrees of freedom, and is used in
many statistical tests.
The gamma distribution can also be used to approximate the normal distribution, for
large , while maintaining its strictly positive values of x [actually (x-min)].
The gamma distribution has been used to represent lifetimes, lead times, personal income data, a population about a stable equilibrium, interarrival times, and service times. In
particular, it can represent lifetime with redundancy (see Johnson et al. 1994, p. 343;
Shooman 1990).
Examples of each of the regions of the gamma distribution are shown here. Note the
peak of the distribution moving away from the minimum value for increasing , but with a
much broader distribution.

Lognormal Distribution (min, , )


[ln(x min) ]2
exp
2 2
(x min) 2 2
min = minimum x
= mean of the included normal distribution
= standard deviation of the included normal distribution
mean = min + exp( + ( 2 /2))
variance = exp(2 + 2 )(exp( 2 ) 1)
mode = min + exp( 2 )
f (x) =

The lognormal distribution is a continuous distribution bounded on the lower side. It is

always 0 at minimum x, rising to a peak that depends on both and , then decreasing monotonically for increasing x.
By denition, the natural logarithm of a lognormal random variable is a normal random
variable. Its parameters are usually given in terms of this included normal distribution.
The lognormal distribution can also be used to approximate the normal distribution, for
small , while maintaining its strictly positive values of x [actually (x-min)].

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Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

The lognormal distribution is used in many different areas including the distribution
of particle size in naturally occurring aggregates, dust concentration in industrial atmospheres, the distribution of minerals present in low concentrations, the duration of sickness
absence, physicians consulting time, lifetime distributions in reliability, distribution of
income, employee retention, and many applications modeling weight, height, and so forth
(see Johnson et al. 1994, p. 207).
The lognormal distribution can provide very peaked distributions for increasing
indeed, far more peaked than can be easily represented in graphical form.

Normal Distribution (
, )

[x ]2
exp
f (x) =
2 2
2 2
= shift parameter
= scale parameter = standard deviation
mean =
variance = 2
mode =
1

The normal distribution is an unbounded continuous distribution. It is sometimes called

a Gaussian distribution or the bell curve. Because of its property of representing an increasing sum of small, independent errors, the normal distribution nds many, many uses
in statistics; however, it is wrongly used in many situations. Possibly, the most important
test in the tting of analytical distributions is the elimination of the normal distribution as
a possible candidate (see Johnson et al. 1994, p. 80).
The normal distribution is used as an approximation for the binomial distribution when
the values of n and p are in the appropriate range. The normal distribution is frequently
used to represent symmetrical data but suffers from being unbounded in both directions. If
the data are known to have a lower bound, they may be better represented by suitable parameterization of the lognormal, Weibull, or gamma distribution. If the data are known to
have both upper and lower bounds, the beta distribution can be used, although much work
has been done on truncated normal distributions (not supported in Stat::Fit).
The normal distribution, shown here, has the familiar bell shape. It is unchanged in
shape with changes in or .

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A. Common Continuous and

Discrete Distributions

Appendix A

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715

Pearson 5 Distribution (min, , )

f (x) =



exp

()(x min)+1
[x min]

min = minimum x
= shape parameter > 0
= scale
parameter > 0

min +
for > 1
mean =
1

does not exist

for 0 < 1

for > 2
variance = ( 1)2 ( 2)

does not exist

for 0 < 2
mode = min +

+1

The Pearson 5 distribution is a continuous distribution with a bound on the lower

side and is sometimes called the inverse gamma distribution due to the reciprocal relationship between a Pearson 5 random variable and a gamma random variable.
The Pearson 5 distribution is useful for modeling time delays where some minimum
delay value is almost assured and the maximum time is unbounded and variably long, such
as time to complete a difcult task, time to respond to an emergency, time to repair a tool,
and so forth.
The Pearson 5 distribution starts slowly near its minimum and has a peak slightly removed from it, as shown here. With decreasing , the peak gets atter (see the vertical
scale) and the tail gets much broader.

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Appendixes

A. Common Continuous and

Discrete Distributions

Appendix A

The McGrawHill
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Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

Pearson 6 Distribution (min, , p, q)


x min p1

f (x) = 



x min p+q
1+
B( p, q)

x > min
min (, )
>0
p>0
q>0
( p, q) = beta function

min + p
mean =
q 1

does not exist

2
q( p + q 1)
variance = (q 1)2 (q 2)

does not exist

min + ( p 1)
mode =
q +1

min

for q > 1
for 0 < q 1
for q > 2
for 0 < q 2
for p 1
otherwise

The Pearson 6 distribution is a continuous distribution bounded on the low side. The
Pearson 6 distribution is sometimes called the beta distribution of the second kind due to
the relationship of a Pearson 6 random variable to a beta random variable.
Like the gamma distribution, the Pearson 6 distribution has three distinct regions. For
p = 1, the Pearson 6 distribution resembles the exponential distribution, starting at a nite
value at minimum x and decreasing monotonically thereafter. For p < 1, the Pearson 6
distribution tends to innity at minimum x and decreases monotonically for increasing x.
For p > 1, the Pearson 6 distribution is 0 at minimum x, peaks at a value that depends on
both p and q, and decreases monotonically thereafter.

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Discrete Distributions

Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

717

The Pearson 6 distribution appears to have found little direct use, except in its reduced
form as the F distribution, where it serves as the distribution of the ratio of independent
estimators of variance and provides the nal test for the analysis of variance.
The three regions of the Pearson 6 distribution are shown here. Also note that the
distribution becomes sharply peaked just off the minimum for increasing q.

Triangular Distribution (min, max, mode)

2(x min)

(max min)(mode min)

f (x) =

2(max x)

(max min)(max mode)

if min x mode
if mode < x max

min = minimum x
max = maximum x
mode = most likely x
min + max + mode
mean =
3
2
min + max2 + mode2 (min)(max) (min)(mode) (max)(mode)
variance =
18

The triangular distribution is a continuous distribution bounded on both sides. The triangular distribution is often used when no or few data are available; it is rarely an accurate
representation of a data set (see Law and Kelton 1991, p. 341). However, it is employed as
the functional form of regions for fuzzy logic due to its ease of use.
The triangular distribution can take on very skewed forms, as shown here, including
negative skewness. For the exceptional cases where the mode is either the min or max, the
triangular distribution becomes a right triangle.

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Appendixes

Appendix A

A. Common Continuous and

Discrete Distributions

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

Uniform Distribution (min, max)

f (x) =
min = minimum x
max = maximum x
min + max
mean =
2
(max min)2
variance =
12

1
max min

mode does not exist

The uniform distribution is a continuous distribution bounded on both sides. Its density
does not depend on the value of x. It is a special case of the beta distribution. It is frequently
called the rectangular distribution (see Johnson et al. 1995, p. 276). Most random number
generators provide samples from the uniform distribution on (0,1) and then convert these
samples to random variates from other distributions.
The uniform distribution is used to represent a random variable with constant likelihood
of being in any small interval between min and max. Note that the probability of either the
min or max value is 0; the end points do not occur. If the end points are necessary, try the
sum of two opposing right triangular distributions.

Weibull Distribution (min, , )


 
[x min]
x min 1
exp
f (x) =

min = minimum x
= shape parameter > 0
= scale parameter > 0
mean = min +
2
variance =

min + ( 1)
if 1
mode =
min
if < 1

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

Appendixes

Appendix A

A. Common Continuous and

Discrete Distributions

Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

719

The Weibull distribution is a continuous distribution bounded on the lower side. Because it provides one of the limiting distributions for extreme values, it is also referred to
as the Frechet distribution and the WeibullGnedenko distribution. Unfortunately, the
Weibull distribution has been given various functional forms in the many engineering references; the form here is the standard form given in Johnson et al. 1994, p. 628.
Like the gamma distribution, the Weibull distribution has three distinct regions. For
= 1, the Weibull distribution is reduced to the exponential distribution, starting at a nite
value at minimum x and decreasing monotonically thereafter. For < 1, the Weibull distribution tends to innity at minimum x and decreases monotonically for increasing x. For
> 1, the Weibull distribution is 0 at minimum x, peaks at a value that depends on both
and , and decreases monotonically thereafter. Uniquely, the Weibull distribution has negative skewness for > 3.6.
The Weibull distribution can also be used to approximate the normal distribution for
= 3.6, while maintaining its strictly positive values of x [actually (x-min)], although the
kurtosis is slightly smaller than 3, the normal value.
The Weibull distribution derived its popularity from its use to model the strength of
materials, and has since been used to model just about everything. In particular, the
Weibull distribution is used to represent wear-out lifetimes in reliability, wind speed, rainfall intensity, health-related issues, germination, duration of industrial stoppages,
migratory systems, and thunderstorm data (see Johnson et al. 1994, p. 628; Shooman
1990, p. 190).

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

720

Appendixes

Appendix A

A. Common Continuous and

Discrete Distributions

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

A.2 Discrete Distributions

Binomial Distribution (n, p)


n
p(x) =
p x (1 p)nx
x
x = 0, 1, . . . , n
n = number of trials
p = probability of the event occurring


n!
n
=
x
x!(n x)!
mean = n p
variance = n p(1 p)

p(n + 1) 1 and p(n + 1)
if p(n + 1) is an integer
mode =
p(n + 1)
otherwise

The binomial distribution is a discrete distribution bounded by [0, n]. Typically, it is

used where a single trial is repeated over and over, such as the tossing of a coin. The parameter p is the probability of the event, either heads or tails, either occurring or not occurring. Each single trial is assumed to be independent of all others. For large n, the binomial
distribution may be approximated by the normal distributionfor example, when np > 9
and p < 0.5 or when np(1 p) > 9.

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

Appendixes

Appendix A

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

A. Common Continuous and

Discrete Distributions

Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

721

As shown in the examples, low values of p give high probabilities for low values of x
and vice versa, so that the peak in the distribution may approach either bound. Note that the
probabilities are actually weights at each integer but are represented by broader bars for
visibility.
The binomial distribution can be used to describe
The number of defective items in a batch.
The number of people in a group of a particular type.
Out of a group of employees, the number of employees who call in sick on a given
day.
It is also useful in other event sampling tests where the probability of the event is known to
be constant or nearly so. See Johnson et al. (1992, p. 134).

Discrete Uniform Distribution (min, max)

p(x) =

1
max min + 1

x = min, min + 1, . . . , max

min = minimum x
max = maximum x
min + max
mean =
2
(max min +1)2 1
variance =
12
mode does not uniquely exist

The discrete uniform distribution is a discrete distribution bounded on [min, max] with
constant probability at every value on or between the bounds. Sometimes called the discrete rectangular distribution, it arises when an event can have a nite and equally probable number of outcomes (see Johnson et al. 1992, p. 272). Note that the probabilities are
actually weights at each integer but are represented by broader bars for visibility.

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

722

Appendixes

Appendix A

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

A. Common Continuous and

Discrete Distributions

Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

Geometric Distribution (p)

p(x) = p(1 p)x
p = probability of occurrence
1 p
mean =
p
1 p
variance =
p2
mode = 0

The geometric distribution is a discrete distribution bounded at 0 and unbounded on the

high side. It is a special case of the negative binomial distribution. In particular, it is the direct discrete analog for the continuous exponential distribution. The geometric distribution
has no history dependence, its probability at any value being independent of a shift along
the axis.
The geometric distribution has been used for inventory demand, marketing survey returns, a ticket control problem, and meteorological models (see Johnson et al. 1992, p. 201;
Law and Kelton 1991; p. 366.)
Several examples with decreasing probability are shown here. Note that the probabilities
are actually weights at each integer but are represented by broader bars for visibility.

Poisson Distribution (
)
p(x) =

e x
x!

= rate of occurrence
mean =
variance =

1 and
if is an integer
mode =

otherwise
The Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution bounded at 0 on the low side and unbounded on the high side. The Poisson distribution is a limiting form of the hypergeometric
distribution.

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

Appendixes

Appendix A

A. Common Continuous and

Discrete Distributions

Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

723

The Poisson distribution nds frequent use because it represents the infrequent occurrence of events whose rate is constant. This includes many types of events in time and
space such as arrivals of telephone calls, defects in semiconductor manufacturing, defects
in all aspects of quality control, molecular distributions, stellar distributions, geographical
distributions of plants, shot noise, and so on. It is an important starting point in queuing
theory and reliability theory (see Johnson et al. 1992, p. 151). Note that the time between
arrivals (defects) is exponentially distributed, which makes this distribution a particularly
convenient starting point even when the process is more complex.
The Poisson distribution peaks near and falls off rapidly on either side. Note that the
probabilities are actually weights at each integer but are represented by broader bars for
visibility.

References
Banks, Jerry, and John S. Carson II. Discrete-Event System Simulation. Englewood Cliffs,
NJ: Prentice Hall, 1984.
Johnson, Norman L.; Samuel Kotz; and N. Balakrishnan. Continuous Univariate Distributions. Vol. 1. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1994.
Johnson, Norman L.; Samuel Kotz; and N. Balakrishnan. Continuous Univariate Distributions. Vol. 2. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1995.
Johnson, Norman L.; Samuel Kotz; and Adrienne W. Kemp. Univariate Discrete Distributions. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1992.
Law, Averill M., and W. David Kelton. Simulation Modeling and Analysis. New York:
McGraw-Hill, 1991.
Shooman, Martin L. Probabilistic Reliability: An Engineering Approach. Melbourne,
Florida: Robert E. Krieger, 1990.

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

Appendixes

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

B. Critical Values for

Students t Distribution and
Standard Normal
Distribution

APPENDIX B
CRITICAL VALUES FOR STUDENTS t DISTRIBUTION AND STANDARD
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
(Critical values for the standard normal distribution (z ) appear in the last row with
d f = . z = t, .)

tdf,

Degrees of Freedom (df )

= 0.40 = 0.30 = 0.20 = 0.10 = 0.05 = 0.025 = 0.01 = 0.005

724

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
40
60
120

0.325
0.289
0.277
0.271
0.267
0.265
0.263
0.262
0.261
0.260
0.260
0.259
0.259
0.258
0.258
0.258
0.257
0.257
0.257
0.257
0.257
0.256
0.256
0.256
0.256
0.256
0.256
0.256
0.256
0.256
0.255
0.254
0.254
0.253

0.727
0.617
0.584
0.569
0.559
0.553
0.549
0.546
0.543
0.542
0.540
0.539
0.538
0.537
0.536
0.535
0.534
0.534
0.533
0.533
0.532
0.532
0.532
0.531
0.531
0.531
0.531
0.530
0.530
0.530
0.529
0.527
0.526
0.524

1.367
1.061
0.978
0.941
0.920
0.906
0.896
0.889
0.883
0.879
0.876
0.873
0.870
0.868
0.866
0.865
0.863
0.862
0.861
0.860
0.859
0.858
0.858
0.857
0.856
0.856
0.855
0.855
0.854
0.854
0.851
0.848
0.845
0.842

3.078
1.886
1.638
1.533
1.476
1.440
1.415
1.397
1.383
1.372
1.363
1.356
1.350
1.345
1.341
1.337
1.333
1.330
1.328
1.325
1.323
1.321
1.319
1.316
1.316
1.315
1.314
1.313
1.310
1.310
1.303
1.296
1.289
1.282

6.314
2.920
2.353
2.132
2.015
1.943
1.895
1.860
1.833
1.812
1.796
1.782
1.771
1.761
1.753
1.746
1.740
1.734
1.729
1.725
1.721
1.717
1.714
1.708
1.708
1.706
1.703
1.701
1.697
1.697
1.684
1.671
1.658
1.645

12.706
4.303
3.182
2.776
2.571
2.447
2.365
2.306
2.262
2.228
2.201
2.179
2.160
2.145
2.131
2.120
2.110
2.101
2.093
2.086
2.080
2.074
2.069
2.060
2.060
2.056
2.052
2.048
2.042
2.042
2.021
2.000
1.980
1.960

31.827
6.965
4.541
3.747
3.365
3.143
2.998
2.896
2.821
2.764
2.718
2.681
2.650
2.624
2.602
2.583
2.567
2.552
2.539
2.528
2.518
2.508
2.500
2.485
2.485
2.479
2.473
2.467
2.457
2.457
2.423
2.390
2.358
2.326

63.657
9.925
5.841
4.604
4.032
3.707
3.499
3.355
3.250
3.169
3.106
3.055
3.012
2.977
2.947
2.921
2.898
2.878
2.861
2.845
2.831
2.819
2.807
2.797
2.787
2.779
2.771
2.763
2.756
2.750
2.704
2.660
2.617
2.576

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

APPENDIX C

F DISTRIBUTION FOR = 0.05

10

12

14

16

20

24

30

40

50

100

200

10.13
7.71
6.61
5.99
5.59
5.32
5.12
4.96
4.84
4.75
4.67
4.60
4.54
4.49
4.45
4.41
4.38
4.35
4.30
4.26
4.23
4.20
4.17
4.12
4.08
4.06
4.03
4.00
3.98
3.96
3.94
3.89
1.04

9.55
6.94
5.79
5.14
4.74
4.46
4.26
4.10
3.98
3.89
3.81
3.74
3.68
3.63
3.59
3.55
3.52
3.49
3.44
3.40
3.37
3.34
3.32
3.27
3.23
3.20
3.18
3.15
3.13
3.11
3.09
3.04
3.00

9.28
6.59
5.41
4.76
4.35
4.07
3.86
3.71
3.59
3.49
3.41
3.34
3.29
3.24
3.20
3.16
3.13
3.10
3.05
3.01
2.98
2.95
2.92
2.87
2.84
2.81
2.79
2.76
2.74
2.72
2.70
2.65
2.61

9.12
6.39
5.19
4.53
4.12
3.84
3.63
3.48
3.36
3.26
3.18
3.11
3.06
3.01
2.96
2.93
2.90
2.87
2.82
2.78
2.74
2.71
2.69
2.64
2.61
2.58
2.56
2.53
2.50
2.49
2.46
2.42
2.37

9.01
6.26
5.05
4.39
3.97
3.69
3.48
3.33
3.20
3.11
3.03
2.96
2.90
2.85
2.81
2.77
2.74
2.71
2.66
2.62
2.59
2.56
2.53
2.49
2.45
2.42
2.40
2.37
2.35
2.33
2.31
2.26
2.21

8.94
6.16
4.95
4.28
3.87
3.58
3.37
3.22
3.09
3.00
2.92
2.85
2.79
2.74
2.70
2.66
2.63
2.60
2.55
2.51
2.47
2.45
2.42
2.37
2.34
2.31
2.29
2.25
2.23
2.21
2.19
2.14
2.10

8.89
6.09
4.88
4.21
3.79
3.50
3.29
3.14
3.01
2.91
2.83
2.76
2.71
2.66
2.61
2.58
2.54
2.51
2.46
2.42
2.39
2.36
2.33
2.29
2.25
2.22
2.20
2.17
2.14
2.13
2.10
2.06
2.01

8.85
6.04
4.82
4.15
3.73
3.44
3.23
3.07
2.95
2.85
2.77
2.70
2.64
2.59
2.55
2.51
2.48
2.45
2.40
2.36
2.32
2.29
2.27
2.22
2.18
2.15
2.13
2.10
2.07
2.06
2.03
1.98
1.94

8.81
6.00
4.77
4.10
3.68
3.39
3.18
3.02
2.90
2.80
2.71
2.65
2.59
2.54
2.49
2.46
2.42
2.39
2.34
2.30
2.27
2.24
2.21
2.16
2.12
2.10
2.07
2.04
2.02
2.00
1.97
1.93
1.88

8.79
5.96
4.74
4.06
3.64
3.35
3.14
2.98
2.85
2.75
2.67
2.60
2.54
2.49
2.45
2.41
2.38
2.35
2.30
2.25
2.22
2.19
2.16
2.11
2.08
2.05
2.03
1.99
1.97
1.95
1.93
1.88
1.83

8.74
5.91
4.68
4.00
3.57
3.28
3.07
2.91
2.79
2.69
2.60
2.53
2.48
2.42
2.38
2.34
2.31
2.28
2.23
2.18
2.15
2.12
2.09
2.04
2.00
1.97
1.95
1.92
1.89
1.88
1.85
1.80
1.75

8.71
5.87
4.64
3.96
3.53
3.24
3.03
2.86
2.74
2.64
2.55
2.48
2.42
2.37
2.33
2.29
2.26
2.23
2.17
2.13
2.09
2.06
2.04
1.99
1.95
1.92
1.89
1.86
1.84
1.82
1.79
1.74
1.69

8.69
5.84
4.60
3.92
3.49
3.20
2.99
2.83
2.70
2.60
2.51
2.44
2.38
2.33
2.29
2.25
2.21
2.18
2.13
2.09
2.05
2.02
1.99
1.94
1.90
1.87
1.85
1.82
1.79
1.77
1.75
1.69
1.64

8.66
5.80
4.56
3.87
3.44
3.15
2.94
2.77
2.65
2.54
2.46
2.39
2.33
2.28
2.23
2.19
2.16
2.12
2.07
2.03
1.99
1.96
1.93
1.88
1.84
1.81
1.78
1.75
1.72
1.70
1.68
1.62
1.57

8.64
5.77
4.53
3.84
3.41
3.12
2.90
2.74
2.61
2.51
2.42
2.35
2.29
2.24
2.19
2.15
2.11
2.08
2.03
1.98
1.95
1.91
1.89
1.83
1.79
1.76
1.74
1.70
1.67
1.65
1.63
1.57
1.52

8.62
5.75
4.50
3.81
3.38
3.08
2.86
2.70
2.57
2.47
2.38
2.31
2.25
2.19
2.15
2.11
2.07
2.04
1.98
1.94
1.90
1.87
1.84
1.79
1.74
1.71
1.69
1.65
1.62
1.60
1.57
1.52
1.46

8.59
5.72
4.46
3.77
3.34
3.04
2.83
2.66
2.53
2.43
2.34
2.27
2.20
2.15
2.10
2.06
2.03
1.99
1.94
1.89
1.85
1.82
1.79
1.74
1.69
1.66
1.63
1.59
1.57
1.54
1.52
1.46
1.40

8.58
5.70
4.44
3.75
3.32
3.02
2.80
2.64
2.51
2.40
2.31
2.24
2.18
2.12
2.08
2.04
2.00
1.97
1.91
1.86
1.82
1.79
1.76
1.70
1.66
1.63
1.60
1.56
1.53
1.51
1.48
1.41
1.35

8.55
5.66
4.41
3.71
3.27
2.97
2.76
2.59
2.46
2.35
2.26
2.19
2.12
2.07
2.02
1.98
1.94
1.91
1.85
1.80
1.76
1.73
1.70
1.63
1.59
1.55
1.52
1.48
1.45
1.43
1.39
1.32
1.25

8.54
5.65
4.39
3.69
3.25
2.95
2.73
2.56
2.43
2.32
2.23
2.16
2.10
2.04
1.99
1.95
1.91
1.88
1.82
1.77
1.73
1.69
1.66
1.60
1.55
1.51
1.48
1.44
1.40
1.38
1.34
1.26
1.17

8.54
5.63
4.36
3.67
3.23
2.93
2.71
2.54
2.41
2.30
2.21
2.13
2.07
2.01
1.96
1.92
1.88
1.84
1.78
1.73
1.69
1.66
1.62
1.56
1.51
1.47
1.44
1.39
1.35
1.33
1.28
1.19
1.03

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

C. F Distribution for a=0.05

725

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
22
24
26
28
30
35
40
45
50
60
70
80
100
200

Appendixes

Denominator Degrees of Freedom [df(Error)]

Numerator Degrees of Freedom [df(Treatment)]

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

Appendixes

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

D. Critical Values for

ChiSquare Distribution

APPENDIX D
CRITICAL VALUES FOR CHI-SQUARE DISTRIBUTION

Degrees of Freedom (df )

2df,

726

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
40
60
120

= 0.4

= 0.3

= 0.2

= 0.1

= 0.05

= 0.025

= 0.01

= 0.005

0.708
1.833
2.946
4.045
5.132
6.211
7.283
8.351
9.414
10.473
11.530
12.584
13.636
14.685
15.733
16.780
17.824
18.868
19.910
20.951
21.992
23.031
24.069
25.106
26.143
27.179
28.214
29.249
30.283
31.316
41.622
62.135
123.289

1.074
2.408
3.665
4.878
6.064
7.231
8.383
9.524
10.656
11.781
12.899
14.011
15.119
16.222
17.322
18.418
19.511
20.601
21.689
22.775
23.858
24.939
26.018
27.096
28.172
29.246
30.319
31.391
32.461
33.530
44.165
65.226
127.616

1.642
3.219
4.642
5.989
7.289
8.558
9.803
11.030
12.242
13.442
14.631
15.812
16.985
18.151
19.311
20.465
21.615
22.760
23.900
25.038
26.171
27.301
28.429
29.553
30.675
31.795
32.912
34.027
35.139
36.250
47.269
68.972
132.806

2.706
4.605
6.251
7.779
9.236
10.645
12.017
13.362
14.684
15.987
17.275
18.549
19.812
21.064
22.307
23.542
24.769
25.989
27.204
28.412
29.615
30.813
32.007
33.196
34.382
35.563
36.741
37.916
39.087
40.256
51.805
74.397
140.233

3.841
5.991
7.815
9.488
11.070
12.592
14.067
15.507
16.919
18.307
19.675
21.026
22.362
23.685
24.996
26.296
27.587
28.869
30.144
31.410
32.671
33.924
35.172
36.415
37.652
38.885
40.113
41.337
42.557
43.773
55.758
79.082
146.567

5.024
7.378
9.348
11.143
12.832
14.449
16.013
17.535
19.023
20.483
21.920
23.337
24.736
26.119
27.488
28.845
30.191
31.526
32.852
34.170
35.479
36.781
38.076
39.364
40.646
41.923
43.195
44.461
45.722
46.979
59.342
83.298
152.211

6.635
9.210
11.345
13.277
15.086
16.812
18.475
20.090
21.666
23.209
24.725
26.217
27.688
29.141
30.578
32.000
33.409
34.805
36.191
37.566
38.932
40.289
41.638
42.980
44.314
45.642
46.963
48.278
49.588
50.892
63.691
88.379
158.950

7.879
10.597
12.838
14.860
16.750
18.548
20.278
21.955
23.589
25.188
26.757
28.300
29.819
31.319
32.801
34.267
35.718
37.156
38.582
39.997
41.401
42.796
44.181
45.558
46.928
48.290
49.645
50.994
52.335
53.672
66.766
91.952
163.648

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III

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CASE STUDY
ASSIGNMENTS

Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Case 4
Case 5
Case 6
Case 7
Case 8

Toy Airplane Manufacturing

Mi CazuelaMexican Restaurant
Jai Hind Cycles Inc. Plans New Production Facility
The FSB Coin System
Automated Warehousing at Athletic Shoe Company
Concentrate Line at Florida Citrus Company
Balancing the Production Line at Southern California Door Company
Material Handling at California Steel Industries Inc.

683
683
685
688
690
692
698
705

These case studies have been used in senior- or graduate-level simulation classes. Each of
these case studies can be analyzed over a three- to ve-week period. A single student or a
group of two to three students can work together on these case studies. If you are using the
student version of the software, you may need to make some simplifying assumptions to
limit the size of the model. You will also need to ll in (research or assume) some of the information and data missing from the case descriptions.

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CASE STUDY 1
TOY AIRPLANE MANUFACTURING
A toy company produces three types (A, B, and C) of toy aluminum airplanes in the following daily volumes: A
1000, B
1500 and C
1800. The company expects demand
to increase for its products by 30 percent over the next six months and needs to know the
total machines and operators that will be required. All planes go through ve operations
(10 through 50) except for plane A, which skips operation 40. Following is a list of operation times, move times, and resources used:

Opn

Description

10
20
30

Die casting
Cutting
Grinding

40
50

Coating
Inspection and
packaging

Move Time to
Next Operation

Operation Time

Resource

3 min. (outputs 6 parts)

Triangular (.25, .28, .35)
Sample times: .23, .22, .26,
.22, .25, .23, .24, .22, .21,
.23, .20, .23, .22, .25, .23,
.24, .23, .25, .47, .23, .25,
.21, .24, .22, .26, .23, .25,
.24, .21, .24, .26
12 min. per batch of 24
Triangular (.27, .30, .40)

Automated die caster

Cutter
Grinder

.3 min.
none
.2 min.

Coater
Packager

.2 min
To exit with 88% yield

Movement
Resource
Mover
Mover

Mover

After die casting, planes are moved to each operation in batch sizes of 24. Input buffers
exist at each operation. The factory operates eight hours a day, ve days per week. The factory starts out empty at the beginning of each day and ships all parts produced at the end of
the day. The die caster experiences downtimes every 30 minutes exponentially distributed
and takes 8 minutes normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes to repair.
One maintenance person is always on duty to make repairs.
Find the total number of machines and personnel needed to meet daily production requirements. Document the assumptions and experimental procedure you went through to
conduct the study.

CASE STUDY 2
MI CAZUELAMEXICAN RESTAURANT
Maria opened her authentic Mexican restaurant Mi Cazuela (a cazuela is a clay cooking
bowl with a small handle on each side) in Pasadena, California, in the 1980s. It quickly became popular for the tasty food and use of fresh organic produce and all-natural meats. As
her oldest child, you have been asked to run the restaurant. If you are able to gain her condence, she will eventually hand over the restaurant to you.

683

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You have denite ideas about increasing the protability at Mi Cazuela. Lately, you
have observed a troubling trend in the restaurant. An increasing number of customers are
expressing dissatisfaction with the long wait, and you have also observed that some people
leave without being served.
Your initial analysis of the situation at Mi Cazuela indicates that one way to improve customer service is to reduce the waiting time in the restaurant. You also realize that by optimizing the process for the peak time in the restaurant, you will be able to increase the prot.
Customers arrive in groups that vary in size from one to four (uniformly distributed). Currently, there are four tables for four and three tables for two patrons in the dining area. One table
for four can be replaced with two tables for two, or vice versa. Groups of one or two customers
wait in one queue while groups of three or four customers wait in another queue. Each of these
waiting lines can accommodate up to two groups only. One- or two-customer groups are
directed to tables for two. Three- or four-customer groups are directed to tables for four.
There are two cooks in the kitchen and two waiters. The cooks are paid $100/day, and the
waiters get $60/day. The cost of raw material (vegetables, meat, spices, and other food material) is $1 per customer. The overhead cost of the restaurant (rent, insurance, utilities, and so
on) is $300/day. The bill for each customer varies uniformly from $10 to $16 or U(13,3).
The restaurant remains open seven days a week from 5 P.M. till 11 P.M. The customer arrival pattern is as follows. The total number of customer groups visiting the restaurant each
day varies uniformly between 30 and 50 or U(40,10):

Customer Arrival Pattern

From

To

Percent

5 P.M.
6 P.M.
7 P.M.
9 P.M.
10 P.M.

6 P.M.
7 P.M.
9 P.M.
10 P.M.
11 P.M.

10
20
55
10
5

Processes at the Restaurant

When a table of the right size becomes available and a waiter is free, he or she seats the customer, writes down the order, and delivers the order to the kitchen. Cooks prepare the food
in the kitchen and bring it out. Any available waiter delivers the food to the customer.
Customers enjoy the dinner. A waiter cleans the table and collects payment from the customers. The customers leave the restaurant. The various activity times are as follows:

Activity #

Activity

Activity Time Distributions

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Waiter seats the customer group.

Waiter writes down the order.
Waiter delivers the order to the kitchen.
Cook prepares food.
Cook brings out the food.
Waiter delivers food to customer group.
Customers eat.
Waiter cleans table and collects payment + tips.

N(2, 0.5) min

N(3, 0.7) min
N(2, 0.5) min
N(5, 1) min
N(2, 0.5) min
N(2, 0.5) min
N(10, 2) min
N(3, 0.8) min

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Case Study 3

Eight Possible Simulations

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

Jai Hind Cycles Inc. Plans New Production Facility

685

Part A
Analyze and answer the following questions:
1. What is the range of prot (develop a 3 condence interval) per day at Mi Cazuela?
2. On average, how many customers leave the restaurant (per day) without eating?
3. What is the range of time (develop a 3 condence interval) a customer group
spends at the restaurant?
4. How much time (develop a 3 condence interval) does a customer group wait in
line?

Part B
You would like to change the mix of four-seat tables and two-seat tables in the dining area
to increase prot and reduce the number of balking customers. You would also like to investigate if hiring additional waiters and/or cooks will improve the bottom line (prot).

Part C
You are thinking of using an automated handheld device for the waiters to take the customer orders and transmit the information (wireless) to the kitchen. The order entry and
transmission (activities #2 and 3) is estimated to take N(1.5, 0.2) minutes. The rent for each
of these devices is $2/hour. Will using these devices improve prot? Reduce customer time
in the system? Should you invest in these handheld devices?

Part D
The area surrounding the mall is going through a construction boom. It is expected that Mi
Cazuela (and the mall) will soon see an increase in the number of patrons per day. Soon the
number of customer groups visiting the restaurant is expected to grow to 5070 per day, or
U(60,10). You have been debating whether to take over the adjoining coffeeshop and expand the Mi Cazuela restaurant. The additional area will allow you to add four more tables
of four and three tables of two customers each. The overhead cost of the additional area
will be $200 per day. Should you expand your restaurant? Will it increase prot?
How is your performance in managing Mi Cazuela? Do you think Mama Maria will be
proud and hand over the reins of the business to you?

CASE STUDY 3
JAI HIND CYCLES INC. PLANS NEW PRODUCTION FACILITY
Mr. Singh is the industrial engineering manager at Jai Hind Cycles, a producer of bicycles. As
part of the growth plan for the company, the management is planning to introduce a new
model of mountain bike strictly for the export market. Presently, JHC assembles regular bikes
for the domestic market. The company runs one shift every day. The present facility has a
process layout. Mr. Singh is considering replacing the existing layout with a group technology
cell layout. As JHCs IE manager, Mr. Singh has been asked to report on the impact that will
be made by the addition of the mountain bike to JHCs current production capabilities.

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Eight Possible Simulations

Case Study Assignments

Mr. Singh has collected the following data from the existing plant:
1. The present production rate is 200 regular bikes per day in one 480-minute
shift.
2. The following is the list of all the existing equipment in JHCs production
facility:

Equipment Type
Forging
Molding
Welding
Tube bender
Die casting
Drill press
Punch press
Electric saw
Assembly

Process Time

Quantity

60 sec/large sprocket
30 sec/small sprocket
2 parts/90 sec
1 weld/60 sec
1 bend/30 sec
1 part/minute
20 sec/part
30 sec/part
1 cut/15 sec
3060 minutes

2
2
8
2
1
1
1
2

Table 1 shows a detailed bill of materials of all the parts manufactured by JHC and the
machining requirements for both models of bikes. Only parts of the regular and the mountain bikes that appear in this table are manufactured within the plant. The rest of the parts
either are purchased from the market or are subcontracted to the vendors.
A job-shop oor plan of the existing facility is shown in Figure 1. The whole facility is
500,000 square feet in covered area.
The gures for the last ve years of the combined total market demand are as follows:

Year

Demand

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

75,000
82,000
80,000
77,000
79,000

At present, the shortages are met by importing the balance of the demand. However, this is
a costly option, and management thinks indigenously manufactured bikes of good quality
would be in great demand.

Tasks
1. Design a cellular layout for the manufacturing facility, incorporating group
technology principles.
2. Determine the amount of resources needed to satisfy the increased demand.
3. Suggest a possible material handling system for the new facilityconveyor(s),
forklift truck(s), AGV(s).

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Case Study 3

687

Jai Hind Cycles Inc. Plans New Production Facility

TABLE 1 Detailed Bill of Materials for Jai Hind Cycles

Bicycle Parts and Process List
Assembly Name

Subassembly Name

Part Name

1 Regular bike
1.1 Bike frame
1.1.1 Top tube
1.1.2 Seat tube
1.1.3 Down tube
1.1.4 Head tube
1.1.5 Fork blade
1.1.6 Chainstay
1.1.7 Seatstay
1.1.8 Rear fork tip
1.1.9 Front fork tip
1.1.10 Top tube lug
1.1.11 Down tube lug
1.1.12 Seat lug
1.1.13 Bottom bracket
1.2 Handlebar and
stem assembly

1.3 Saddle post

assembly
1.4 Drive chain
assembly

2 Mountain
bike

2.1 Frame and

handle bar

2.2 Saddle and

seat post

1.2.1 Handlebars
1.2.2 Handlebar plugs
1.2.3 Handlebar stem
1.3.1 Saddle
1.3.2 Seat post
1.4.1 Crank spider
1.4.2 Large sprocket
1.4.3 Small sprocket

2.1.1 Hub
2.1.2 Frame legs
2.1.3 Handlebar tube
2.1.4 Saddle post tube
2.1.5 Handlebar
2.1.6 Balance bar
2.2.1 Handlebar post
2.2.2 Saddle post
2.2.3 Mount brackets
2.2.4 Axle mount
2.2.5 Chain guard

Operations
Assembly
Assembly
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Welding
Welding
Casting
Casting
Casting
Casting
Assembly
Cutting
Molding
Casting
Assembly
Molding
Cutting
Assembly
Forging
Forging
Forging
Assembly
Assembly
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Assembly
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Cutting
Molding

Bending
Bending

Welding
Welding
Welding
Welding
Bending
Cutting

Bending
Welding

Bending
Welding

Welding

Welding

Drill press
Drill press Welding
Punch press Welding

Welding

Welding
Welding

4. How many shifts per day does JHC need to work?

5. Develop a stafng plan for the present situation and for the new situation.
6. Develop a cost model and economic justication for the growth plan. Is the
increased production plan justied from an economic standpoint?

Welding

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FIGURE 1
Floor plan for Jai
Hind Cycles.

Raw material storage

Cutting

Molding

Bending

Casting

Welding

Final assembly

Offices

Warehouse and
shipping

CASE STUDY 4
THE FSB COIN SYSTEM
George A. Johnson
Idaho State University

Todd Cooper
First Security Bank

Todd had a problem. First Security Bank had developed a consumer lending software
package to increase the capacity and speed with which auto loan applications could be
processed. The system consisted of faxed applications combined with online processing.
The goal had been to provide a 30-minute turnaround of an application from the time the

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Case Study 4

689

The FSB Coin System

bank received the faxed application from the dealer to the time the loan was either
approved or disapproved. The system had recently been installed and the results had not
been satisfactory. The question now was what to do next.
First Security Bank of Idaho is the second largest bank in the state of Idaho with
branches throughout the state. The bank is a full-service bank providing a broad range of
banking services. Consumer loans and, in particular, auto loans make up an important part
of these services. The bank is part of a larger system covering most of the intermountain
states, and its headquarters are in Salt Lake City.
The auto loan business is a highly competitive eld with a number of players including full-line banks, credit unions, and consumer nance companies. Because of the highly
competitive nature, interest rates tend to be similar and competition is based on other
factors. An important factor for the dealer is the time it takes to obtain loan approval. The
quicker the loan approval, the quicker a sale can be closed and merchandise moved. A
30-minute turnaround of loan applications would be an important factor to a dealer, who
has a signicant impact on the consumers decision on where to seek a loan.
The loan application process begins at the automobile dealership. It is there that an
application is completed for the purpose of borrowing money to purchase a car. The
application is then sent to the bank via a fax machine. Most fax transmissions are less
than two minutes in length, and there is a bank of eight receiving fax machines. All
machines are tied to the same 800 number. The plan is that eight machines should provide sufcient capacity that there should never be the problem of a busy signal received
by the sending machine.
Once the fax transmission is complete, the application is taken from the machine by a
runner and distributed to one of eight data entry clerks. The goal is that data entry should
take no longer than six minutes. The goal was also set that there should be no greater than
5 percent errors.
Once the data input is complete, the input clerk assigns the application to one of six
regions around the state. Each region has a group of specic dealers determined by geographic distribution. The application, now electronic in form, is distributed to the regions
via the wide area network. The loan ofcer in the respective region will then process the
loan, make a decision, and fax that decision back to the dealer. The goal is that the loan
ofcer should complete this function within 20 minutes. This allows about another two
minutes to fax the application back to the dealer.
The system has been operating approximately six months and has failed to meet the
goal of 30 minutes. In addition, the error rate is running approximately 10 percent.
Summary data are provided here:

Region

Applications

Average Time

Number of
Loan Ofcers

1
2
3
4
5
6

6150
1485
2655
1680
1440
1590

58.76
37.22
37.00
51.07
37.00
37.01

6
2
4
2
2
3

A weighted average processing time for all regions is 46.07 minutes.

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Information on data input indicates that this part of the process is taking almost twice as
long as originally planned. The time from when the runner delivers the document to when
it is entered is currently averaging 9.5 minutes. Also, it has been found that the time to
process an error averages six minutes. Errors are corrected at the region and add to the regions processing time.
Todd needed to come up with some recommendations on how to solve the problem.
Stafng seemed to be an issue in some regions, and the performance of the data input clerks
was below expectations. The higher processing times and error rates needed to be corrected. He thought that if he solved these two problems and increased the staff, he could get
the averages in all regions down to 30 minutes.

CASE STUDY 5
AUTOMATED WAREHOUSING AT ATHLETIC SHOE COMPANY
The centralized storage and distribution operation at Athletic Shoe Company (ASC) is considering replacement of its conventional manual storage racking systems with an elaborate
automated storage and retrieval system (AS/RS). The objective of this case study is to
come up with the preliminary design of the storage and material handling systems for ASC
that will meet the needs of the company in timely distribution of its products.
On average, between 100,000 and 150,000 pairs of shoes are shipped per day to between 8000 and 10,000 shipping destinations. In order to support this level of operations,
it is estimated that rack storage space of up to 3,000,000 pairs of shoes, consisting of
30,000 stock-keeping units (SKUs), is required.
The area available for storage, as shown in Figure 1, is 500,000 square feet. The height
of the ceiling is 40 feet. A rst-in, rst-out (FIFO) inventory policy is adopted in the

FIGURE 1
Layout of the Athletic
Shoe Company
warehouse.

Sort,
wrap,
and
pack

Shipping

Unpack
and
scan

Receiving

Store

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Case Study 5

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Automated Warehousing at Athletic Shoe Company

691

warehouse. For storage and retrieval, consider the following options:

a. A dedicated picker for each aisle.
b. A picker that is shared between the storage aisles.
For material handling in the shipping and receiving areas, and also between the storage areas and the shipping/receiving docks, consider one or more of the following
options:
a. Forklift trucks.
b. Automated guided vehicles.
c. Conveyors.
You as the warehouse manager would like to discourage many different types of material
handling devices. The number of types of devices should be kept to a minimum, thus
avoiding complicated interface problems.
The weight of the shoeboxes varies from one to six pounds with a mode of four
pounds. All the boxes measure 18" long 12" wide 5" high. Because of the construction of
the boxes and the weight of the shoes, no more than eight boxes can be stacked up on each
other.
The general process ow for receiving and shipping of shoes is as follows:

Receiving
1.
2.
3.
4.

Unload from truck.

Scan the incoming boxes/pallets.
Send to storage racks.
Store.

Shipping
1.
2.
3.
4.

Batch pick shipping orders.

Send to sortation system.
Wrap and pack.
Load in outgoing truck.

Tasks
1. Construct a simulation model of the warehouse and perform experiments using
the model to judge the effectiveness and efciency of the design with respect to
parameters such as ows, capacity, operation, interfacing, and so on.
2. Write a detailed specication of the storage plan: the amount of rack storage space
included in the design (capacity), rack types, dimensions, rack congurations, and
aisles within the layout.
3. Design and specify the material handling equipment for all of the functions listed,
including the interfaces required to change handling methods between functions.
4. Design and specify the AS/R system. Compare a dedicated versus a shared picker
system.

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Case Study Assignments

5. Plan the stafng requirements.

6. How many shifts should this warehouse be working?
7. Estimate the throughput for the warehouse per shift, per day, per year. What are
the design parameters necessary for each function to attain the indicated level of
throughput?
8. Develop a detailed facilities layout of the nal design, including aisles and material
handling equipment.
9. Develop a cost estimate for the proposed design.

CASE STUDY 6
CONCENTRATE LINE AT FLORIDA CITRUS COMPANY
Wai Seto, Suhandi Samsudin, Shi Lau, and Samson Chen
California State Polytechnic UniversityPomona

Florida Citrus Company (FCC), located in Tampa, Florida, is a subdivision of Healthy

Foods Inc., which currently has 12,000 employees in 50 food production facilities around
the world.
FCC has specialized in producing a wide range of juice products for the past 50 years.
FCC employs about 350 employees. Its juice products are primarily divided in the
following four categories: aseptic products, juice concentrate, jug products, and cup
products.
Based on the product categories, the manufacturing facility is divided into four cells.
Each cell has a different kind of machine setting and conguration. The machines and
equipment are mostly automatic. The aseptic cell is comprised of 44125 machine, 36125
machine, J.J. Var., and J.J. Rainbows. Depending on the demands of these sizes, the equipment is exible to interchange based on the customer orders. The concentrate line generally produces concentrated juices for different private labels such as Vons, Stater Bros.,
Ralphs, Kroger, and Luckys. The concentrate line produces fruit concentrates such as
kiwistrawberry, apple, orange, lemonade, and grape. The jug line seldom operates as the
demand is poor. The cup line is the fastest-growing product in the business. It produces
mainly apple, orange, grape, and lemonade avors.
The concentrate line is currently not able to meet the budgeted case rate standard. FCC
is seeking to nd the real causes that contribute to the current production problem. The
company also wants to improve the facility layout and reduce inventory levels in the concentrate line.
The concentrate line is divided into ve stations:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Depalletizer: Tri-Can
Filler: Pfaudler
Seamer: Angelus
Palletizer: Currie
Packer: Diablo

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Case Study 6

693

Concentrate Line at Florida Citrus Company

The current concentrate line production is as follows:

Equipment Description

Rated Speed

Operating Speed

Filler
Seamer
Packer
Palletizer
Depalletizer
Bundler

1750 cases/hr
1500 cases/hr
1800 cases/hr
1800 cases/hr
1800 cases/hr
1500 cases/hr

600 cans/min
600 cans/min
28 cases/min
28 cases/min
600 cans/min
550 cans/min

The concentrate line stations and the ow of production are shown in Figure 1. The
concentrate line starts from the receiving area. Full pallet loads of 3600 empty cans in
10 layers arrive at the receiving area. The arrival conveyor transports these pallets to the
depalletizer (1). The cans are loaded onto the depalletizer, which is operated by Don.

FIGURE 1
Concentrate line stations for Florida Citrus Company.
6

1a

Starting point
1
5
01

02
2a

3b
2b

3a

4
3

3c

03
4a
Ending point
1. Depalletizer
2. Pfaudler bowl
3. Packmaster
4. Palletizer
5. The pallet
6. The concentrate cans
7. The box organizer
8. The box

1a. Depalletizer conveyor

2a. Lid stamping mechanism
2b. Filler bowl conveyor
3a. Glue mechanism
3b. Cardboard feeding machine
3c. Packmaster conveyor
4a. Exit conveyor
5a. Conveyor to the depalletizer

01 Operator 1
02 Operator 2
03 Operator 3

5a

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The depalletizer pushes out one layer of 360 cans at a time from the pallet and then
raises up one layer of empty cans onto the depalletizer conveyor belt (1a). Conveyor 1a
transports the layer of cans to the depalletizer dispenser. The dispenser separates each can
from the layer of cans. Individual empty cans travel on the empty can conveyor to the
Pfaudler bowl.
The Pfaudler bowl is a big circular container that stores the concentrate. Its 36 lling
devices are used to ll the cans with concentrate. Pamela operates the Pfaudler bowl.
Empty cans travel on the ller bowl conveyor (2b) and are lled with the appropriate juice
concentrate. Filled cans are sent to the lid stamping mechanism (2a) on the ller bowl conveyor. The lid stamping closes the lled cans. As the closed cans come through the lid
stamping mechanism, they are transported by the prewash conveyor to the washing machine to be ushed with water to wash away any leftover concentrate on the can. Four
closed cans are combined as a group. The group of cans is then transported by the accumulate conveyor to the accumulator.
The accumulator combines six such groups (24 cans in all). The accumulated group
of 24 cans is then transported by the prepack conveyor to the Packmaster (3), operated

FIGURE 2
Process ow for Florida Citrus Company.
Travel by
depalletizer
conveyor

Travel by arrival
conveyor

Arrival

Depalletizer start

Entity: full pallet

Entity: full pallet

Entity: cans 80

Contains 3600 empty cans in 10

layers.
Each layer = 360 cans.

Travel by
empty-can
conveyor
Entity: empty can
Empty cans will
travel one by one
in a row.

Travel by
accumulate
conveyor
Entity: accumulated
cans

Travel by filler
bowl conveyor

Filler bowl start

Entity: empty can

Stage 2

Entity: empty can

Empty cans will be
filled and the
entity will be
changed to
concentrate cans.

Travel by
prepack conveyor
Entity: prepack cans

Entity: full box

Entity: full box

90 full boxes will
be combined as
full box pallet.

Travel by
prewash conveyor

Filler bowl end

Entity: concentrate cans

Entity: concentrate
cans

The filling process will be

ended.
The cans will be sent to
the prewash conveyor to
be rinsed.

Packmaster

Stage 1
Entity: concentrate
cans
Four concentrate cans will
be combined as group
cans.

Travel by packmaster
conveyor
Entity: full box

Entity: prepack cans

Entity: accumulated
cans

Palletizer

Entity: cans 60
The cans 60 will change to empty can
and will travel one by one to the
empty can conveyor.
It changes 360 cans/layer to 3600 empty
cans.

Push out the cans layer by

layer.
360 cans/layer.

Six accumulated cans will

be combined as prepack
cans.

Travel by palletizer
conveyor

Depalletizer end
(dispenser)

Entity: Cans 80

Travel by exit
conveyor
Entity: full box pallet

The prepack cans are

wrapped into a full box.

Loading zone
Entity: full box pallet

Travel by
resource forklift 2
Entity: full box pallet

Exit
Entity: full box pallet

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695

Concentrate Line at Florida Citrus Company

by Pat. Pat loads cardboard boxes onto the cardboard feeding machine (3b) next to the
Packmaster. Then the 24 cans are wrapped and packed into each cardboard box.
The glue mechanism inside the Packmaster glues all six sides of the box. The boxes are
then raised up to the palletizer conveyor (3c), which transports the boxes to the
palletizer (4).
The box organizer (7) mechanism loads three boxes at a time onto the pallet. A total of
90 boxes are loaded onto each pallet (10 levels, 9 boxes per level). The palletizer then lowers the pallet onto the exit conveyor (4a) to be transported to the loading zone. From the
loading zone a forklift truck carries the pallets to the shipping dock. Figure 2 describes the
process ow.
A study conducted by a group of Cal Poly students revealed the cause of most downtime to be located at the Packmaster. The Packmaster is supposed to pack a group of cans
into a cardboard box. However, if the cardboard is warped, the mechanism will stop the
operation. Another problem with the Packmaster is its glue operation. The glue heads
sometimes are clotted.
All these machines operate in an automatic manner. However, there are frequent
machine stoppages caused by the following factors: change of avor, poor maintenance,
lack of communication between workers, lack of attention by the workers, inefcient layout of the concentrate line, and bad machine design.
All the stations are arranged in the sequence of the manufacturing process. As such, the
production line cannot operate in a exible or parallel manner. Also, the machines depend
on product being fed from upstream processes. An upstream machine stoppage will cause
eventual downstream machine stoppages.

Work Measurement
A detailed production study was conducted that brought out the following facts:

Packmaster
Juice Flavors
Albertsons Pink Lemonade
Albertsons Pink Lemonade
Best Yet Orange Juice
Crisp Lemonade
Flav-R-Pac Lemonade
Frys Lemonade
Hy-Top Pink Lemonade
IGA Grape Juice
Ladylee Grape Juice
Rosauers Orange Juice
Rosauers Pink Lemonade
Smiths Kiwi Raspberry
Smiths Kiwi Strawberry
Stater Bros. Lemonade
Stater Bros. Pink Lemonade
Western Family Pink Lemonade

Working Time (%)

Down Time (%)

68.75
77.84
71.73
65.75
76.35
78.76
68.83
83.04
93.32
51.40
61.59
75.16
85.05
21.62
86.21
64.07

31.25
22.16
28.27
34.25
23.65
21.24
31.17
16.96
6.68
48.60
38.41
24.84
14.95
78.38
13.79
35.93

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The production study also showed the label change time on the Packmaster as follows:
Flavor from

Flavor to

Label Change Time (sec)

Albertsons Pink Lemonade

Frys Lemonade
IGA Grape Juice
Rosauers Pink Lemonade
Smiths Kiwi Raspberry
Smiths Kiwi Strawberry
Stater Bros. Lemonade

Western Family Pink Lemonade

Flav-R-Pac Lemonade
Ladylee Grape Juice
Albertsons Pink Lemonade
IGA Grape Juice
Smiths Kiwi Raspberry
Stater Bros. Pink Lemonade

824
189
177
41
641
66
160

The Packmaster was observed for a total of 45,983 sec. Out of this time, the Packmaster was
working for a total of 24,027 sec, down for 13,108 sec, and being set up for change of avor
for 8848 sec. The average avor change time for the Pfaudler bowl is 19.24 percent of the total
observed time. The number of cases produced during this observed time was 11,590. The
production rate is calculated to be (11,590/46,384)3600, or about 907 cases per hour.
It was also observed that the Packmaster was down because of ipped cans (8.6 percent), sensor failure (43.9 percent), and miscellaneous other reasons (47.5 percent).
The following information on the conveyors was obtained:

Name of Conveyor

Length (ft.)

Arrival conveyor
Depalletizer conveyor
Empty-cans conveyor
Filler bowl conveyor
Prewash conveyor
Accumulate conveyor
Prepack conveyor
Palletizer conveyor
Exit conveyor

28.75
120
10
23.6
38
12
54.4

Speed (ft/min)

12.6
130
126
255
48
35
76

The Pfaudler bowl was observed for a total of 46,384 sec. Out of this time, the bowl
was working for 27,258 sec, down for 10,278 sec, and being set up for change of avor for
8848 sec. The average avor change time for the Pfaudler bowl is 19.08 percent of the total
observed time. The number of cases produced in this observed time was 11,590. The
production rate is calculated to be (11,590/46,384)3600, or about 900 cases per hour.

Pfaudler Bowl
Fruit Juice Flavors

Working Time (%)

Albertsons Pink Lemonade

Albertsons Wild Berry Punch
Best Yet Grape Juice
Best Yet Orange Juice
Crisp Lemonade

74.81
88.20
68.91
86.08
53.21

Down Time (%)

25.19
11.80
31.09
13.92
46.79
(continued)

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697

Concentrate Line at Florida Citrus Company

Fruit Juice Flavors

Working Time (%)

Down Time (%)

Flav-R-Pac Lemonade
Flavorite Lemonade
Frys Lemonade
Hy-Top Pink Lemonade
IGA Grape Juice
IGA Pink Lemonade
Ladylee Grape Juice
Ladylee Lemonade
Rosauers Orange Juice
Rosauers Pink Lemonade
Smiths Kiwi Raspberry
Smiths Kiwi Strawberry
Special Value Wild Berry Punch
Stater Bros. Lemonade
Stater Bros. Pink Lemonade
Western Family Pink Lemonade

79.62
69.07
80.54
81.85
89.93
45.54
94.36
91.86
64.20
100.00
92.71
96.49
80.09
26.36
90.18
66.30

20.38
30.93
19.46
18.15
10.07
54.46
5.64
8.14
35.80
0.00
7.29
3.51
19.91
73.64
9.82
33.70

The avor change time was observed as given in the following table:

Flavor from

Flavor to

Flavor Change Time (sec)

Albertsons Lemonade
Albertsons Lemonade
Albertsons Limeade
Albertsons Pink Lemonade
Albertsons Pink Lemonade
Albertsons Wild Berry Punch
Best Yet Grape Juice
Flav-R-Pac Lemonade
Flav-R-Pac Orange Juice
Flavorite Lemonade
Frys Lemonade
Furrs Orange Juice
Hy-Top Grape Juice
Hy-Top Pink Lemonade
IGA Grape Juice
IGA Pink Lemonade
Ladylee Grape Juice
Ladylee Lemonade
Ladylee Pink Lemonade
Rosauers Orange Juice
Rosauers Pink Lemonade
Smiths Apple Melon
Smiths Kiwi Raspberry
Smiths Kiwi Strawberry
Special Value Wild Berry Punch
Stater Bros. Lemonade
Western Family Pink Lemonade

Rosauers Pink Lemonade

Albertsons Pink Lemonade
Frys Lemonade
Western Family Pink Lemonade
IGA Pink Lemonade
Special Value Apple Melon
Special Value Wild Berry Punch
Flavorite Lemonade
Rosauers Orange Juice
Ladylee Lemonade
Flav-R-Pac Lemonade
Best Yet Orange Juice
Best Yet Grape Juice
Flav-R-Pac Lemonade
Ladylee Grape Juice
Best Yet Pink Lemonade
Albertsons Grape Juice
Crisp Lemonade
Hy-Top Pink Lemonade
Flavorite Orange Juice
Albertsons Pink Lemonade
Smiths Kiwi Strawberry
IGA Grape Juice
Smiths Kiwi Raspberry
Albertsons Wild Berry Punch
Stater Bros. Pink Lemonade
Safeway Pink Lemonade

537
702
992
400
69
1292
627
303
42
41
183
684
155
49
67
0
100
49
0
0
98
382
580
53
62
50
1153

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Case Study Assignments

Tasks
1. Build simulation models and gure out the production capacity of the concentrate
line at FCC (without considering any downtime).
2. What would be the capacity after considering the historical downtimes in the line?
3. What are the bottleneck operations in the whole process?
4. How can we reduce the level of inventory in the concentrate line? What would be
the magnitude of reduction in the levels of inventory?
5. If we address the bottleneck operations as found in task 3, what would be the
increase in capacity levels?

CASE STUDY 7
BALANCING THE PRODUCTION LINE AT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DOOR COMPANY
Suryadi Santoso
California State Polytechnic UniversityPomona

Southern California Door Company produces solid wooden doors of various designs for
new and existing homes. A layout of the production facility is shown in Figure 1. The current production facility is not balanced well. This leads to frequent congestion and stockouts on the production oor. The overall inventory (both raw material and work in process)
is also fairly high. Mr. Santoso, the industrial engineering manager for the company, has
been asked by management to smooth out the ow of production as well as reduce the levels of inventory. The company is also expecting a growth in the volume of sales. The production manager is asking Mr. Santoso to nd the stafng level and equipment resources
needed for the current level of sales as well as 10, 25, 50, and 100 percent growth in sales
volume.
A preliminary process ow study by Mr. Santoso reveals the production ow shown in
Figure 2.

Process Flow
Raw wood material is taken from the raw material storage to carriage 1. The raw material
is inspected for correct sizes and defects. Material that does not meet the specications is
moved to carriage 1B. Raw wood from carriage 1 is fed into the rip saw machine.
In the rip saw machine, the raw wood is cut into rectangular cross sections. Cut wood
material coming out of the rip saw machine is placed on carriage 3. Waste material from the
cutting operation (rip saw) is placed in carriage 2.
Cut wood from carriage 3 is brought to the moulding shaper and grooved on one side. Out
of the moulding shaper, grooved wood material is placed on carriage 4. From carriage 4, the
grooved wood is stored in carriage 5 (if carriage 5 is full, carriage 6 or 7 is used). Grooved
wood is transported from carriages 5, 6, and 7 to the chop saw working table.
One by one, the grooved wood material from the chop saw working table is fed into the
chop saw machine. The grooved wood material to be fed is inspected by the operator to see if

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FIGURE 1

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Balancing the Production Line at Southern California Door Company

699

Original Layout

Layout of production
facility at Southern
California Door
Company.

Carriage
1B

Carriage
2

Carriage
5

Rip saw (41)

Carriage
1

Carriage
6

Carriage
8

Carriage
3

Carriage
4

Moulding
sander (42)

Moulding
sander

Carriage
7

Chop saw (43)

Sand finishing
Glue
trimming

Auto door
clamp

Storage racks

Preassembly

Storage racks

Glue
trimming

Double
end
tenoner
(45)

Auto door
clamp

Sand finishing

Sand finishing

Chop saw (40)

Preassembly

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Storage racks

Storage racks

Storage racks

there are any defects in the wood. Usable chopped parts from the chop saw machine are stored
in the chop saw storage shelves. Wood material that has defects is chopped into small blocks
to cut out the defective surfaces using the chop saw and thrown away to carriage 8.
The chopped parts in the chop saw storage shelves are stacked into batches of a certain
number and then packed with tape. From the chop saw storage shelves, some of the batches

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FIGURE 2
Process sequences and present input/output ow for Southern California Door Company.
Quantity of machines

Chop Saw (2)

(9840)

Rip saw
(1416)
13,744*
712

Moulding shaper
(712)

Present total output capacity

Asterisk indicates that the work center supplies

two others
Expected input of the work center to which the
arrow points

Sand finishing (6)

(576)

1640

576

Chop saw (2)

(9840)

DET*
(1840)

13,744*

1840

DET*
(13,744)

Triple sander
(560)

5568

560

1440

Glue trimming (2)

(512)

Preassembly
(1st op.)

1440

512

Preassembly
(2nd op.)

224

Auto Door Clamp (2)

(224)

The present total output capacity of DET represents the number of units of a single product manufactured in an eighthour shift. The DET machine supplies parts for two other work centers, preassembly (1st op.) and sand nishing. In
reality, the DET machine has to balance the output between those two work centers mentioned; in other words, the
DET machine is shared by two different parts for two different work centers during an eight-hour shift.

are transported to the double end tenoner (DET) storage, while the rest of the batches are
kept in the chop saw storage shelves.
The transported batches are unpacked in the DET storage and then fed into the DET machine to be grooved on both sides. The parts coming out of the DET machine are placed on
a roller next to the machine.
The parts are rebatched. From the DET machine, the batches are transported to storage
racks and stored there until further processing. The batches stored in the chop saw storage
shelves are picked up and placed on the preassembly table, as are the batches stored in the
storage racks. The operator inspects to see if there is any defect in the wood. Defective
parts are then taken back from the preassembly table to the storage racks.

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Balancing the Production Line at Southern California Door Company

701

The rest of the parts are given to the second operator in the same workstation. The second operator tries to match the color pattern of all the parts needed to assemble the door
(four frames and a center panel). The operator puts glue on both ends of all four frame parts
and preassembles the frame parts and center panel together.
The framepanel preassembly is moved from the preassembly table to the auto door
clamp conveyor and pressed into the auto door clamp machine. The pressed assembly is taken
out of the auto door clamp machine and carried out by the auto door clamp conveyor.
Next, the preassembly is picked up and placed on the glue trimming table. Under a
black light, the inspector looks for any excess glue coming out of the assembly parting
lines. Excess glue is trimmed using a specially designed cutter.
From the glue trimming table, the assembly is brought to a roller next to the triple sanding
machine (the auto cross grain sander and the auto drum sander). The operator feeds the assembly into the triple sander. The assembly undergoes three sanding processes: one through
the auto cross grain sander and two through the auto drum sander.After coming out of the triple
sander machine, the sanded assembly is picked up and placed on a roller between the DET and
the triple sander machine. The sanded assembly waits there for further processing. The operator feeds the sanded assembly into the DET machine, where it is grooved on two of the sides.
Out of the DET machine, the assembly is taken by the second operator and placed temporarily on a roller next to the DET machine. After nishing with all the assembly, the rst
operator gets the grooved assembly and feeds it to the DET machine, where the assembly
is grooved again on the other two sides. Going out of the machine, the grooved assembly
is then placed on a roller between the DET machine and the triple sander machine.
The assembly is stored for further processing. From the roller conveyor, the grooved
assembly is picked up by the operators from the sand nishing station and placed on the
table. The operators nish the sanding process on the table using a handheld power sander.
After nishing the sanding, the assembly is placed on the table for temporary storage.
Finally, the sanded assembly is moved to a roller next to the storage racks to wait for
further processes.

Work Measurement
A detailed work measurement effort was undertaken by Santoso to collect data on various
manufacturing processes involved. Table 1 summarizes the results of all the time studies.
The current number of machines and/or workstations and their output capacities are as
follows:
Output Capacities
Machine

Number of Machines

Units/Hour

Units/Shift

Rip saw
Moulding shaper
Chop saw
DET
Preassembly 1
Preassembly 2
Auto door clamp
Glue trimming
Triple sander
DET
Sand nishing

1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
6

177
89
615
3426
696
90
14
32
70
460
12

1416
712
4920
13,744
5568
720
224
512
560
1840
576

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TABLE 1 Time Studies Results for Southern California Door Company

Machine
Name
Rip saw

Machine
Number
41

Operation
Cut raw material into
correct cross-sectional
dimensions

Task
Number
1
2

3
4

Moulding shaper

Chop saw

42

40, 43

Grooving one side of

the raw material

Chop material into

proper lengths

Place cut pieces onto

moulding shaper

Groove one side of

material with
moulding shaper
Inspect grooved
material for size and
defects
Feed material and
chop to smaller
pieces

Preassembly 1

45

Grooving frames

Inspecting and matching

frame parts

Inspect size and make

adjustments
Grasp raw wood and
feed into rip saw
machine
Cut wood with rip
saw
Remove cut pieces
from rip saw and
place in carriage 3;
throw waste into
carriage 4
Get cut material from
carriage 3

Double end
tenoner (DET)

Task Description

Throw away
defective parts to
carriage 8 and stack
chopped parts
Get 2 to 4 frames
from stack and feed
into DET

DET grooves both

sides of frames

Remove frames and

stack

Get frame parts from

storage racks

Task Observations
(seconds)
5.7,6.6,5.05,6.99,5.93,7.52,
5.37,7.21,8.96,6.68
6.79,6.3,7.52,6.15,6.53,6.03,
6.09,7.31,7,5.78,
12.4,11.53,11.26,12.88,11.56,
10.38,11.31,11.85,12.78,11.88
10.56,9.94,9.78,11.9,11.44,
8.87,7.35,10.93,12.47,10.34

11.52,12.83,14.64,8.25,12.58,
13.81,13.68,12.21,6.17,15.06,
11.93
16.61,16.58,14.43,21.16,
18.17,25.14,26.15,30.06,35.16,
25.06,24.37
28.13,29.41,29.07,31.41,30.75,
38.95,39.83,42.27,39.32,
40.12,36.3
2.68,2.08,2.24,1.61,2.3,2.99,
3.02,3.11,3.21,3.02,3.06,2.79,
2.51,2.96,3.23,2.37,2.64
16.81,14.56,18.81,20.13,
23.25,18.53,16.53,25.56,25.3,
24.78,15.42,13.92,15.48,20.51,
17.79,23.54,17.01
9.19,9.03,13.16,10.78,5.69,
4.1,6.9,9.16,3.6,3.22,8.83,
12.63,14.94,12.86,10.25,0.76,
10.63
9.33,14.7,10.18,14.47,13.12,
12.49,13.12,12.76,32.15,
33.94,13.23,11.97,9.21,24.86,
18.29,29.74,16.53,14.24,
12.78,15.38
60.21,58.77,57.23,59.81,
61.64,60.29,59.85,61.43,
63.59,62.71,61.2,59.19,58.47,
60.27,59.73,60.21,61.82,
62.85,58.94,57.23
10.4,11.57,19.15,16.94,12.68,
31.47,36.97,13,14.5,14.62,
15.76,26.82,32.14,30.67,22.43,
29.61,34.92,18.27,20.31,24.88
49.82,50.08,19.35,32.54,
35.31,33.43,37.84,42.17,
49.04,55.09
(continued)

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Eight Possible Simulations

Case Study 7

Machine
Name

Machine
Number

Balancing the Production Line at Southern California Door Company

Operation

Task
Number
2

Preassembly 2

Preassembling and
gluing frames

Auto door clamps

52, 54

Clamping preassembly

3
Glue trimming

Triple sander

Trimming excess
glue out of the
assembly

46, 47,
48

Sanding the assembly

through three different
sanding machines

Sand nishing

45

Grooving sanded
assembly

Sand nishing the

assembly

Task Description
Inspect for defects
and match frame
parts by color
Match center panel
and four frame parts
by color
Glue and preassemble
frame parts and
center panel
Place assembly in
auto door clamp
conveyor
Conveyor feeds
preassembled parts
(preassy) into
machine
Press the preassy

Assy comes out of

machine
Remove assy from
auto door clamp
machine and inspect
for excess glue

Trim excess glue

Get assy from stack

and feed into sander
Sand the assembly

2
3

Double end
tenoner (DET)

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Remove sanded assy

and stack
Feed assy into DET

Groove assy

Remove assy and

stack
Get part and place
on table
Sand nish the part

Stack parts

703

Task Observations
(seconds)
36.52,35.99,29.09,57.43,53.6,
42.45,57.77,61.21,63.96, 56.41
8.13,8.32,7.43,10.63,6.28,
6.48,7.29,7.34,4.82,5.24
19.5,24.1,23.84,22.94,21.75,
22.47,23.66,25.63,29.59,30.09
4.38,2.71,4.35,3.69,3.04,2.62,3,
3.78,3,3.23
6.55,5.05,6.86,4.77,7.68,5.33,
5.24,7.3,5.71,6.55

221.28,222,220.35,224.91,
194.4,231.82,213.34,206.75,
223.62,227.44
4.22,5.69,7.15,5.78,5.1,4.75,
5.53,5.1,4.24,4.84
35.74,17.96,30.59,17.39,
21.48,10.15,16.89,10.87,
10.59,10.26,14.23,11.92,
24.87,10.91,11.77,15.48,
29.71,10.86,19.64
58.53,90.87,67.93,70.78,
70.53,77.9,85.88,86.84,78.9,
95.6,78.5,72.65,72.44,91.01,
86.12,84.9,72.56,79.09,77.75
2.45,3.56,3.18,3.16,3.32,3.58,
4.22,2.27,4.76,3.9
30.72,32.75,34.13,35.66,37,
36.31,36.84,37.03,37.44,38.54
3.31,6.54,5.03,5.51,5.22,5.84,
5.38,6.69,4.22,6.44
5.99,6.14,6.49,6.46,6.42,6.64,
3.21,4.11,3.71,4.2
31.97,32.93,35.11,33.67,
34.06,33.21,33.43,35.23,
33.87,33.72
3.84,3,3.06,2.93,3.06,2.85,
2.88,3.22,1.87,2.41
3.49,3.42,3.47,3.29,3.36,3.2,
5.73,3.02,3.39,3.54,3.71,3.48
215.8,207.57,244.17,254.28,
238.36,218.76,341.77,247.59,
252.63,308.06,221.27,233.66
2.26,2.95,2,1.41,3.79,2.74,4.7,
3.35,3.09,2.75,2.59,2.71

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

704

III. Case Study

Assignments

Part III

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

Eight Possible Simulations

Case Study Assignments

FIGURE 3
Groups of operators for Southern California Door Company.

Work Center/
Machine

Minimum
Quantity
Required

Number of
Operators
Working

Utilization
(Shift)

Group of
Operators

Sand nishing

1.00

Triple sander

0.51

****
***

Glue trimming

0.75

Auto door clamp

0.86

Preassembly (2nd op.)

0.80

**

Preassembly (1st op.)

DET

1
1
1

1
2
2

0.21
0.31
0.08

*****
****
****

Chop saw

0.47

****

Moulding shaper

0.54

*****

Rip saw

0.27

****

Rip saw
(0.27)

DET
(0.39)

Moulding shaper
(0.54)

Notes

Grooving assembled doors

Grooving frames

Preassembly (1st op.)

(0.21)

Triple sander
(0.51)

Sand finishing
(1.00)
Chop saw
(0.47)

Glue trimming
(0.75)

Preassembly (2nd op.)

(0.80)

Additional data are shown in Figures 2 and 3.

Tasks
Build simulation models to analyze the following:
1. Find the manufacturing capacity of the overall facility. What are the current
bottlenecks of production?
2. How would you balance the ow of production? What improvements in capacity
will that make?
3. What would you suggest to reduce inventory?
4. How could you reduce the manufacturing ow time?

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

III. Case Study

Assignments

Case Study 8

Eight Possible Simulations

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

Material Handling at California Steel Industries, Inc.

705

5. The production manager is asking Mr. Santoso to nd out the stafng and
equipment resources needed for the current level of sales as well as 10, 25, 50, and
100 percent growth in sales volume.
6. Develop layouts for the facility for various levels of production.
7. What kind of material handling equipment would you recommend? Develop the
specications, amount, and cost.

CASE STUDY 8
MATERIAL HANDLING AT CALIFORNIA STEEL INDUSTRIES, INC.
Hary Herho, David Hong, Genghis Kuo, and Ka Hsing Loi
California State Polytechnic UniversityPomona

California Steel Industries (CSI) is located in Fontana, California, approximately 50 miles

east of Los Angeles. The companys facility, which occupies the space of the old Kaiser
steel plant, covers about 400 acres. The facility is connected by 8.5 miles of roads and a 22mile railroad system. CSI owns and operates seven diesel locomotives and 140 at and
gondola cars.
Founded in 1984, CSI is a fairly new company. CSI produces and ships over 1 million
tons of steel annually. Future projections are for increased production. Therefore, CSI has
invested hundreds of millions of dollars in modernizing its facilities.
The basic boundary of our dened system runs around the three main buildings: the tin
mill (TM), the #1 continuous galvanizing line, and the cold sheet mill (M). Within the tin
mill and cold sheet mill are several important production units that will be examined (see
Figure 1).
The tin mill contains a 62" continuous pickling line, the 5-stand tandem cold mill (5-stand),
the box annealing furnaces, and the #2 continuous galvanizing line. The cold sheet mill
contains the cleaning line and additional box annealing furnaces. The #1 continuous
galvanizing line is contained by itself in its own building.
CSI produces three main steel coil products: galvanized, cold rolled, and full hard.
Roughly, galvanized coils make up about 60 percent of the total coils produced. The cold
rolled coils are 35 percent of the coils and the full hard are the remaining 5 percent. Coils
are also categorized into heavy gauge and light gauge. Assume that heavy-gauge coils are
produced 60 percent of the time and light-gauge coils 40 percent of the time.
The study will begin with the coils arriving off the 5-stand. The coils weigh from 5 to
32 tons, with a mode of 16 tons. Most of the coils, 70 percent, that will be cold rolled coils
will be processed rst through the cleaning line at the cold sheet mill in order to remove the
grime and residue left from the cold reduction process at the 5-stand. The other 30 percent
are a mill clean product, which will not need to undergo the cleaning process since the
coils are treated additionally at the 5-stand. After exiting the 5-stand, the coils are moved
by a crane to the 5-stand bay to await transportation to the next stage by coil haulers. The
coils that are to be annealed need to be upended, or rotated so that the coils core is vertical. The only upender is located at the cold sheet mill. Since about 66 percent of the coils
are annealed at the tin mill, they need to be transported to the tin mill and brought back to
the cold sheet mill to be upended again.
Currently, coils are transported to and from different mill buildings by human-driven
diesel coil haulers that have a 60-ton payload capability. A smaller 40-ton coil hauler

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

706

III. Case Study

Assignments

Part III

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

Eight Possible Simulations

Case Study Assignments

FIGURE 1

Cold rolled coils

shipped

Layout for California

Steel Industries.
TM box
annealing

5-stand
Upender

CSM box
annealing

#2
galvanizing
Cleaning

Tin mill

Cold sheet mill

Galvanized coils
shipped

Full hard coils

shipped

Galvanize mill
#1
Galvanizing

Notes:
Full hard coils = 5%
Galvanized (#1 & #2) coils = 60%
Cold rolled coils = 35%
Mill clean = 30%
CSM clean = 70%
TM box annealing = 2/3
CSM box annealing = 1/3

Galvanized coils
shipped

transports coils that are to be moved around within a building. There are two 60-ton haulers
and two 40-ton haulers. Assume that one hauler will be down for maintenance at all times.
The following are the process times at each of the production units:

5-stand
#1 galvanizing line
#2 galvanizing line
Cleaning
Annealing

Normal(8,2) min
Normal(30,8) min
Normal(25,4) min
Normal(15,3) min
5 hr/ton

Annealing is a batched process in which groups of coils are treated at one time. The annealing bases at the cold sheet mill allow for coils to be batched three at a time. Coils can
be batched 12 at a time at the tin mill annealing bases.
Assume that each storage bay after a coil has been processed has innite capacity. Coils
that are slated to be galvanized will go to either of the two galvanizing lines. The #1 continuous galvanizing line handles heavy-gauge coils, while the #2 galvanizing line processes the
light-gauge coils.
The proposed layout (see Figure 2) will be very much like the original layout. The proposed material handling system that we are evaluating will utilize the railroads that connect
the three main buildings. The two rails will allow coils to be moved from the tin mill to the
cold sheet mill and the #1 galvanizing line. The top rail is the in-process rail, which will

HarrellGhoshBowden:
Simulation Using
ProModel, Second Edition

III. Case Study

Assignments

The McGrawHill
Companies, 2004

Eight Possible Simulations

Case Study 8

FIGURE 2

TM4

Proposed coil
handling layout for
California Steel
Industries.

707

Material Handling at California Steel Industries, Inc.

Train coil
car

TM5

TM7
5-stand
bay

In-process
bay
1L

5-stand

1R

TM11
Coil skid
Finished
goods bay

2L

3L

TM10

2R

Finishedgoods bay

Coil transfer
car 3R
Rail to #1 galvanizing line,
CSM, and shipping

TM14
#2 galvanizing line
exit bay

TM15
#2 galvanizing line
enter bay

move coils that need to be processed at the cold sheet mill or the #1 galvanizing line. The
bottom rail will ship out full hard coils and coils from the #2 galvanizing line. The train coil
cars will be able to carry 100 tons of coils.
In addition, a coil transfer car system will be installed near the #2 galvanizing line. The
car will consist of a smaller baby car that will be held inside the belly of a larger mother
car. The mother car will travel northsouth and position itself at a coil skid. The baby car,
traveling eastwest, will detach from the mother car, move underneath the skid, lift the
coil, and travel back to the belly of the mother car.
Crane TM 7 will move coils from the 5-stand to the 5-stand bay, as in the current layout. The proposed system, however, will move coils to processing in the #2 galvanizing
line with the assistance of four main cranes, namely TM 5, TM 11, TM 14, and TM 15.
Crane TM 5 will carry coils to the coil skid at the north end of the rail. From there, the car
will carry coils to the south end of the rail and place them on the right coil skid to wait to
be picked up by TM 15 and stored in the #2 galvanizing line entry bay. This crane will also
assist the line operator to move coils into position to be processed. After a coil is galvanized, crane TM 14 will move the coil to the #2 galvanizing line delivery bay. Galvanized
coils that are to be shipped will be put on the southernmost coil skid to be transported by
the coil car to the middle skids, where crane TM 11 will place them in either the rail or
truck shipping areas.
One facility change that will take place is the movement of all the box annealing furnaces to the cold sheet mill. This change will prevent the back and forth movement of coils
between the tin mill and cold sheet mill.

Tasks
1. Build simulation models of the current and proposed systems.
2. Compare the two material handling systems in terms of throughput time of coils
and work-in-process inventory.
3. Experiment with the modernized model. Determine what will be the optimal
number of train coil cars on the in-process and nished-goods rails.