6th Assignment

Advanced Methods of Data Analysis

FORECASTING METHODS
FACULTY: Dr Prahlad Mishra

Group-02
YASH SINGH CHAUHAN

UM14120

ALISHA MOHANTY

UM14125

CHINMAYEE SAHU

UM14158

SAURABH WADHWA

UM14163

SHRUTI

UM14165

JALAJ PATHAK

UM14256

PRIYAMBADA CHOUDHURY

UM14273

SUDISNA LENKA

UM14293

Xavier Institute of Management, Bhubaneswar

1. Forecasting:

Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based

on past and present data and analysis of trends. A commonplace
example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some
specified future date. In forecasting we usually work with historical
data in an attempt to predict, or forecast, the uncertain future.
Forecast error - the difference between the actual value and the
forecast value for the corresponding period - is given as follows:

Where E is the forecast error at period t, Y is the actual value at period

t, and F is the forecast for period t.
Forecasting procedures may be classified as follows:
a. Short Term and Long Term wrt Time
b. Macro Level and Micro Level wrt Position
c. Quantitative and Qualitative wrt Nature of Data

Forecasting

Qualitati
ve
Delphi
Techniq
ue

Quantitat
ive

Anticipati
on
Survey

Simple
Projection

Extrapolati
ve

Moving
Average
Methods

Adjusted for trend

(Holts Method)

Exponential
smoothing
methods

Adjusted for trend ,

seasonal variations
(Winters Method)

Explanato
ry
Autoregressive
time series
Models (AR,
ARMA,
ARIMA)

Single
Equation
Models

Simultan
eous
Equation
Models

Input/Ou
tput
Models

Adjusted for trend,

seasonal and cyclic
variation.

A forecasting model is as accurate as the data on which it is based. The

data should be:
2 | Page

Reliable and accurate

Relevant and representative of the circumstances for which they are
being used.
Consistent
Timely

The forecasting process consists of the following 5 steps:

Data collection: Here we collect proper data and make sure that
they are correct. Quality of data points is one of the important
aspects of forecasting.
Data reduction or condensation: It is necessary because there may
be some data points which may not be relevant to the problem and
may reduce forecasting accuracy. There may be other data points
that are suitable in certain historical periods only. So we may need
to remove those data points.
Model Building and Evaluation: This step involves fitting the
collected data into a forecasting model that is appropriate in terms
of minimizing the forecasting error. The simpler the model, the
better it is.
Model Extrapolation: It consists of the actual model forecasts that
are generated once the appropriate data have been collected and
possibly reduced and an appropriate forecasting model has been
chosen.
Often forecasting for recent periods in which the actual historical
values are known is used to check the accuracy of the process.
Following which, the forecasting errors are observed and
summarized.
Forecast Evaluation: This step involves comparing forecast values
with actual historical values. In this process, a few of the most
recent data values are often held back from the data set being
analyzed. After the forecasting model is completed, forecast are
made for these periods and compared with the known historical
values. The estimation of the error pattern helps us to modify the
forecasting procedure so as to minimize the error.
Here in this exercise we will be working with time series data. A time
series consists of data that are collected, recorded or observed over
successful increments of time.
An important aspect to consider while selecting an appropriate
forecasting method for time series data is to consider the different
types of data patterns:
Horizontal: When data observations fluctuate around a constant
level or mean.
Trend: When data observations fluctuate grow or decline over an
extended period of time.
Cyclical: When data observations exhibit rise and falls that are not
of a fixed period.

3 | Page

Seasonal: When data observations are influenced by seasonal

factors. It refers to a pattern of change that repeats itself year after
year.

2. Assignment-6:
Objective:

To examine the time series data pattern using time as an

independent variable.
To determine whether there exists a structural change using the
time series data.
To determine forecasting error by using the above given forecasting
models to forecast the values for the test period and then
comparing them with the actual values of the test period.
To determine the best forecasting model using MAPE.

a. Present Exercise:
To implement the Extrapolative Models of forecasting and check
the accuracy of outputs

b. Variables Used in the research

1. Dependent variable Stock-Split Compensated Close
2. Independent Variable Time

c. A priori Reasoning
.

d. Hypothesis

Null Hypothesis:
. (=0)
Alternate Hypothesis:
. (0)

Data Used: Time Series Data (184 data points)

Date
1/Mar/200
0
3/Apr/200
0
1/May/20
00
1/Jun/200
0
4 | Page

Close
8901.9
521
8100
6990.0
161
8318.8
477

Split Adjusted Close

(Dep.Var.)

Volume(Independent
Variable)

8901.9521

3497900

8100

6116700

6990.0161

10870000

8318.8477

10818000

3/Jul/2000
1/Aug/200
0
1/Sep/200
0
2/Oct/200
0
1/Nov/200
0
1/Dec/200
0
9/Jan/200
1
6/Feb/200
1
2/Mar/200
1
12/Apr/20
01
3/May/20
01
5/Jun/200
1
2/Jul/2001
1/Aug/200
1
3/Sep/200
1
1/Oct/200
1
1/Nov/200
1
3/Dec/200
1
1/Jan/200
2
1/Feb/200
2
1/Mar/200
2
1/Apr/200
2
2/May/20
02
3/Jun/200
2
12/Aug/20
02
2/Sep/200
2
1/Oct/200
5 | Page

6800.9
6
8373.1
523
7357.3
442
7104.5
439
7158.6
88
5575.0
078
6864.9
922

6800.96

13236700

8373.1523

18455800

7357.3442

15600700

7104.5439

17422100

7158.688

15344700

5575.0078

10208900

6864.9922

83500

5500

5500

169900

3900
3939.2
959
3775.0
081
3289.9
839
3761.3
12
3532.2
881
2352.6
497
2914.3
008
3895.9
36
4073.6
001
3889.3
44
3530.2
4
3682.2
08
3689.5
039
3382.0
481
3065.7
505
3619.0
4
3400.2
881
3787.8

3900

232700

3939.2959

380200

3775.0081

445300

3289.9839

337000

3761.312

12466800

3532.2881

7963300

2352.6497

16304000

2914.3008

16598500

3895.936

12587800

4073.6001

12723100

3889.344

15491500

3530.24

10064300

3682.208

12148800

3689.5039

7892500

3382.0481

5893800

3065.7505

8530900

3619.04

10357100

3400.2881
3787.8081

8924800
11961400

2
1/Nov/200
2
2/Dec/200
2
1/Jan/200
3
3/Feb/200
3
3/Mar/200
3
1/Apr/200
3
1/May/20
03
2/Jun/200
3
1/Jul/2003
1/Aug/200
3
1/Sep/200
3
1/Oct/200
3
3/Nov/200
3
1/Dec/200
3
1/Jan/200
4
2/Feb/200
4
1/Mar/200
4
1/Apr/200
4
3/May/20
04
1/Jun/200
4
1/Jul/2004
2/Aug/200
4
1/Sep/200
4
1/Oct/200
4
1/Nov/200
4
1/Dec/200
4
6 | Page

081
4568.7
358
4771.1
362
4301.0
562
4284.1
602
4040.2
881
2790.6
497
2672.3
999
3264.8
64
3593.3
12
3910.3
999
4524.1
919
4741.4
399
4924.5
122
5563.7
119
5195.1
362
5071.9
038
4938.1
44
5146.9
438
5208.8
96
5522.9
121
1553.7
52
1574.9
041

4568.7358

15452000

4771.1362

12288400

4301.0562

12658200

4284.1602

10151900

4040.2881

9277500

2790.6497

15725500

2672.3999

10724800

3264.864

8605200

3593.312

11062700

3910.3999

8536600

4524.1919

12343200

4741.4399

8020900

4924.5122

6258100

5563.7119

4955400

5195.1362

5858700

5071.9038

7499100

4938.144

8189700

5146.9438

6879500

5208.896

5567000

5522.9121

4973300

6215.008

4218400

6299.6164

3287600

1695.2

6780.8

3836500

1906.4
2148.3
521

7625.6

4345900

8593.4084

2859000

2089

8356

2094500

3/Jan/200
5
1/Feb/200
5
1/Mar/200
5
1/Apr/200
5
2/May/20
05
1/Jun/200
5
1/Jul/2005
1/Aug/200
5
1/Sep/200
5
3/Oct/200
5
1/Nov/200
5
1/Dec/200
5
2/Jan/200
6
1/Feb/200
6
1/Mar/200
6
3/Apr/200
6
2/May/20
06
1/Jun/200
6
3/Jul/2006
1/Aug/200
6
1/Sep/200
6
2/Oct/200
6
1/Nov/200
6
1/Dec/200
6
1/Jan/200
7
1/Feb/200
7
1/Mar/200
7
7 | Page

2067.2
48
2237.1
521
2252.5
52
1887.3
521
2250.6
96
2357.6
479
2269.2
2376.2
48

8268.992

3369200

8948.6084

2653300

9010.208

1695200

7549.4084

2589200

9002.784

2457800

9430.5916
9076.8

1889300
2192600

9504.992

1244200

10068

1296700

10095.584

2654800

10736.416

1829300

11987.008

2195600

11518.784

2347900

11314.4004

2000400

11923.3916

1994800

12535.584

2626600

11632.1924

1696300

12310.208
13231.2

1689300
1987300

1808.8

14470.4

969800

1847.9

14783.2

797400

2094.8
2180.4
48

16758.4

1256700

17443.584

966200

17924

804800

2517
2523.8
96
2684.1
04
2996.7
52
2879.6
96
2828.6
001
2980.8
479
3133.8
96
2908.0
481
3077.5
52
1653.9

2240.5
2244.4
48
2078.3
521

17955.584

1025900

16626.8168

1028400

2012.6

16100.8

1230900

2/Apr/200
7
1/May/20
07
1/Jun/200
7
2/Jul/2007
1/Aug/200
7
3/Sep/200
7
1/Oct/200
7
1/Nov/200
7
3/Dec/200
7
1/Jan/200
8
1/Feb/200
8
3/Mar/200
8
1/Apr/200
8
1/May/20
08
2/Jun/200
8
1/Jul/2008
1/Aug/200
8
1/Sep/200
8
1/Oct/200
8
3/Nov/200
8
1/Dec/200
8
1/Jan/200
9
2/Feb/200
9
2/Mar/200
9
1/Apr/200
9
1/May/20
09
1/Jun/200
9
8 | Page

2049.3
521
1920.2
48
1929.2
1977.2
48
1855.0
52
1896.7
52

16394.8168

1326600

15361.984

1208000

15433.6

993100

15817.984

1471500

14840.416

1172000

15174.016

1126300

1839.1
1604.0
52

14712.8

1656500

12832.416

1255200

1768.4

14147.2

805100

1503.9
1546.8
48
1430.1
52
1753.7
52
1957.5
52
1734.7
52
1583.3

12031.2

1223800

12374.784

943000

11441.216

982700

14030.016

1926400

15660.416

1512900

13878.016
12666.4

1186800
1928500

13988

1206900

11180.416

1337900

11053.216

1263700

1748.5
1397.5
52
1381.6
52
1240.6
1117.8
48

9924.8

1362100

8942.784

1081600

1305.5

10444

1563400

1231.3

9850.4

862500

1324.1

10592.8

786600

1507.3

12058.4

774600

1602

12816

858500

1776.9

14215.2

695500

1/Jul/2009
3/Aug/200
9
1/Sep/200
9
1/Oct/200
9
2/Nov/200
9
1/Dec/200
9
1/Jan/201
0
1/Feb/201
0
1/Mar/201
0
1/Apr/201
0
3/May/20
10
1/Jun/201
0
1/Jul/2010
2/Aug/201
0
1/Sep/201
0
1/Oct/201
0
1/Nov/201
0
1/Dec/201
0
3/Jan/201
1
1/Feb/201
1
1/Mar/201
1
1/Apr/201
1
2/May/20
11
1/Jun/201
1
1/Jul/2011
1/Aug/201
1
2/Sep/201
1
9 | Page

2063.8
999
2132.3
2308.3
999
2205.3
999
2383.9
48
2605.2
48
2476.7
2601.6
001
2615.1
001
2736.1
479
2657.6
479
2788.5
52
2788.8
521
2707.1
001

16511.1992

1054400

17058.4

575700

18467.1992

510600

17643.1992

668400

19071.584

918300

20841.984

503900

19813.6

675700

20812.8008

424400

20920.8008

414500

21889.1832

713000

21261.1832

401300

22308.416

346800

22310.8168

523500

21656.8008

292700

3041
2969.6
001
3049.4
48

24328

363900

23756.8008

572300

24395.584

302500

3445

27560

353400

3116.3
3003.0
52
3236.7
52
2905.9
48
2791.8
521
2907.3
999
2766.8
2354.1
001

24930.4

479200

24024.416

366700

25894.016

460400

23247.584

1394000

22334.8168

379800

23259.1992
22134.4

338200
500400

18832.8008

717100

20270.4

742100

2533.8

3/Oct/201
1
1/Nov/201
1
1/Dec/201
1
2/Jan/201
2
1/Feb/201
2
1/Mar/201
2
2/Apr/201
2
1/May/20
12
1/Jun/201
2
2/Jul/2012
1/Aug/201
2
3/Sep/201
2
1/Oct/201
2
1/Nov/201
2
3/Dec/201
2
1/Jan/201
3
1/Feb/201
3
1/Mar/201
3
1/Apr/201
3
1/May/20
13
3/Jun/201
3
1/Jul/2013
1/Aug/201
3
2/Sep/201
3
1/Oct/201
3
1/Nov/201
3
2/Dec/201
10 | P a g e

2875.2
2607.5
52
2765.0
52
2743.3
521
2875.3
999
2864.9
48
2462.6
001
2439.8
521
2502.5
52
2227.3
999
2373.2
48

23001.6

875400

20860.416

567600

22120.416

466500

21946.8168

727500

23003.1992

352100

22919.584

385600

19700.8008

1181600

19518.8168

440800

20020.416

404600

17819.1992

716300

18985.984

266700

2534

20272

311800

2363.5
2436.6
001

18908

682300

19492.8008

357800

18548

303300

22310.016

729400

23248

302000

23119.1992

237500

17875.584

1065400

19260.8008

286700

19945.984

345700

23737.1832

488300

24802.4

328700

2318.5
2788.7
52
2906
2889.8
999
2234.4
48
2407.6
001
2493.2
48
2967.1
479
3100.3
3015.4
48
3308.6
479

24123.584

289400

26469.1832

501100

3353.5
3485.5

26828
27884

335400
287700

3
1/Jan/201
4
3/Feb/201
4
3/Mar/201
4
1/Apr/201
4
1/May/20
14
2/Jun/201
4
1/Jul/2014
1/Aug/201
4
1/Sep/201
4
1/Oct/201
4
3/Nov/201
4
1/Dec/201
4
1/Jan/201
5
2/Feb/201
5
2/Mar/201
5
1/Apr/201
5
1/May/20
15
1/Jun/201
5
1/Jul/2015

3699.4
48

29595.584

375500

3820.2
3278.8
521

30561.6

231300

26230.8168

314900

3177.2

25417.6

326700

2941.5
3246.4
48
3365.7

23532

656100

25971.584
26925.6

386800
225000

28752

183700

29981.1832

265000

32411.5192

361400

34873.9216

242900

31539.2

783000

34284.16

479000

36261.7616

182700

35465.6016

216200

1942.4

31078.4

428400

2022.4

32358.4

427200

985.35
1063.5

31531.2
34032

240700
246300

3594
3747.6
479
4051.4
399
2179.6
201
1971.2
2142.7
6
2266.3
601
2216.6
001

Sources
<>

Quantitative Methods for Forecasting:

a. Extrapolative Methods:
i.

Simple Projection Method:

In simple projection method we have regressed the dependent
variable i.e. Stock-Split Compensated Close against Year i.e.
the independent variable. The results are as follows:

11 | P a g e

Yt+1 = (1+b) Yt
Equation
Y=640.1702 + 153.0419 * X
Interpretation: -

ii.

Intercept

640.1702

Slope

153.0419

MSE

MAPE

Moving
Averages
Method:

Averaging
methods
10988414
25.34%
generate
forecasts based
on an average of past observations. The method of simple
averages is an appropriate technique when the forces
generating the series to be forecast have stabilized, and the
environment in which the series exists is generally unchanging.
Moving average for time period t is the arithmetic mean of the
n most recet observations.

12 | P a g e

Ft 1 A t / n
Where, F is the forecast value for the next period,
A is the actual value at period t
And n is the number of terms in the moving average.
Interpretation:-

Three month moving Average

MSE

MAPE

2719819.029

9.84%

Five month moving Average

MSE

MAPE

3801972.728

12.10%

Seven month moving Average

13 | P a g e

MSE

MAPE

4976966.54

14.02%

iii.

Exponential Smoothing Method:

Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights
as the observation get older.
In other words, recent observations are given relatively more
weight in forecasting than the older observations.
In the case of moving averages, the weights assigned to the
observations are the same and are equal to 1/N. In exponential
smoothing, however, there are one or more smoothing
parameters to be determined (or estimated) and these choices
determine the weights assigned to the observations.

OR

Interpretation:-

14 | P a g e

Smoothing Factor = 0.3

MAPE

9.69 %

Smoothing Factor = 0.4

MAPE

9.31 %

Smoothing Factor = 0.5

MAPE

8.98 %

Smoothing Factor = 0.6

MAPE

8.74 %

Smoothing Factor = 0.7

MAPE

iv.

8.58 %

Holts Method:

Double exponential smoothing is sometimes called exponential smoothing with trend

If trend exists, single exponential smoothing may need adjustment
15 | P a g e

There is a need to add a second smoothing constant to a second smoothing constant to

account for trend

Interpretation:-

Alpha =0.5 Beta= 0.3

MAPE

16 | P a g e

12.49 %

Alpha =0.5 Beta= 0.4

MAPE

14.52 %

Alpha =0.5 Beta= 0.5

MAPE

14.98 %

Alpha =0.5 Beta= 0.6

MAPE

13.59 %

Alpha =0.5 Beta= 0.7

MAPE

v.

10.74 %

Holts Winter Method:

Holt extended simple exponential smoothing to allow forecasting of data with a trend.
This method involves a forecast equation and two smoothing equations (one for the
level and one for the trend):
Forecast equationLevel equationTrend equation

y^t+h|ttbt=t+hbt=yt+(1)
(t1+bt1)=(tt1)+(1)bt1
where t denotes an estimate of the level of the series at time t, bt denotes an
estimate of the trend (slope) of the series at time t, is the smoothing parameter for
the level, 01 and is the smoothing parameter for the trend, 01
(denoted here as instead of ).
As with simple exponential smoothing, the level equation here shows that t is a
weighted average of observation yt and the within-sample one-step-ahead forecast
for time t, here given by t1+bt1. The trend equation shows that bt is a
weighted average of the estimated trend at time t based on tt1 and bt1, the
previous estimate of the trend.
The forecast function is no longer flat but trending. The h-step-ahead forecast is
equal to the last estimated level plus h times the last estimated trend value. Hence the
forecasts are a linear function of h.

17 | P a g e

The error correction form of the level and the trend equations show the adjustments in
terms of the within-sample one-step forecast errors:

tbt=t1+bt1+et=bt1+et
where et=yt(t1+bt1)=yty^t|t1.
Interpretation:-

Gamma=
0.4

Beta=
0.4
Beta=
0.3
Beta=
0.2

Alpha=
0.5
Alpha=
0.5
Alpha=
0.5

MAPE
5061.
3%
1464.
7%
364.4
%

Gamma=
0.5

Beta=
0.3
Beta=
0.3
Beta=
0.21

Alpha=
0.6
Alpha=
0.5
Alpha=
0.37

2083.
1%
931.8
7%
26.78
%

Gamma=
0.33

18 | P a g e

Present Exercise:
To implement the Explanatory Model of forecasting and check the
accuracy of outputs

Variables Used in the research

Dependent variable Stock-Split Compensated Close
Independent Variable Volume -------------------------- (X)
Dummy Variable----------- (D)
Volume * Dummy Var. --- (DX)

Date
1/Mar/200
0
3/Apr/200
0
1/May/200
0
1/Jun/200
0
3/Jul/2000
1/Aug/200
0
1/Sep/200
0
2/Oct/200
0
1/Nov/200
0
1/Dec/200
0
9/Jan/200
1
6/Feb/200
1
2/Mar/200
1
12/Apr/20
01
3/May/200
1
5/Jun/200
1
2/Jul/2001
1/Aug/200
1
3/Sep/200
1
1/Oct/200

Split Adjusted Close

(Dep.Var.)

Volume(Independent
Variable)

DX

8901.9521

3497900

8100
6990.01
61
8318.84
77
6800.96
8373.15
23
7357.34
42
7104.54
39
7158.68
8
5575.00
78
6864.99
22

8100

6116700

6990.0161

10870000

8318.8477
6800.96

10818000
13236700

0
0

0
0

8373.1523

18455800

7357.3442

15600700

7104.5439

17422100

7158.688

15344700

5575.0078

10208900

6864.9922

83500

5500

5500

169900

3900
3939.29
59
3775.00
81
3289.98
39
3761.31
2
3532.28
81
2352.64
97
2914.30

3900

232700

3939.2959

380200

3775.0081

445300

3289.9839

337000

3761.312

12466800

3532.2881

7963300

2352.6497
2914.3008

16304000
16598500

0
0

0
0

Close
8901.95
21

19 | P a g e

1
1/Nov/200
1
3/Dec/200
1
1/Jan/200
2
1/Feb/200
2
1/Mar/200
2
1/Apr/200
2
2/May/200
2
3/Jun/200
2
12/Aug/20
02
2/Sep/200
2
1/Oct/200
2
1/Nov/200
2
2/Dec/200
2
1/Jan/200
3
3/Feb/200
3
3/Mar/200
3
1/Apr/200
3
1/May/200
3
2/Jun/200
3
1/Jul/2003
1/Aug/200
3
1/Sep/200
3
1/Oct/200
3
3/Nov/200
3
1/Dec/200
3
1/Jan/200
4

08
3895.93
6
4073.60
01
3889.34
4

3895.936

12587800

4073.6001

12723100

3889.344

15491500

3530.24
3682.20
8
3689.50
39
3382.04
81
3065.75
05

3530.24

10064300

3682.208

12148800

3689.5039

7892500

3382.0481

5893800

3065.7505

8530900

3619.04
3400.28
81
3787.80
81
4568.73
58
4771.13
62
4301.05
62
4284.16
02
4040.28
81
2790.64
97
2672.39
99
3264.86
4
3593.31
2
3910.39
99
4524.19
19
4741.43
99
4924.51
22
5563.71
19
5195.13
62

3619.04

10357100

3400.2881

8924800

3787.8081

11961400

4568.7358

15452000

4771.1362

12288400

4301.0562

12658200

4284.1602

10151900

4040.2881

9277500

2790.6497

15725500

2672.3999

10724800

3264.864

8605200

3593.312

11062700

3910.3999

8536600

4524.1919

12343200

4741.4399

8020900

4924.5122

6258100

5563.7119

4955400

5195.1362

5858700

20 | P a g e

2/Feb/200
4
1/Mar/200
4
1/Apr/200
4
3/May/200
4
1/Jun/200
4
1/Jul/2004
2/Aug/200
4
1/Sep/200
4
1/Oct/200
4
1/Nov/200
4
1/Dec/200
4
3/Jan/200
5
1/Feb/200
5
1/Mar/200
5
1/Apr/200
5
2/May/200
5
1/Jun/200
5
1/Jul/2005
1/Aug/200
5
1/Sep/200
5
3/Oct/200
5
1/Nov/200
5
1/Dec/200
5
2/Jan/200
6
1/Feb/200
6
1/Mar/200
6
3/Apr/200
6

5071.90
38
4938.14
4
5146.94
38
5208.89
6
5522.91
21
1553.75
2
1574.90
41

5071.9038

7499100

4938.144

8189700

5146.9438

6879500

5208.896

5567000

5522.9121

4973300

6215.008

4218400

6299.6164

3287600

1695.2

6780.8

3836500

1906.4
2148.35
21

7625.6

4345900

8593.4084

2859000

2089
2067.24
8
2237.15
21
2252.55
2
1887.35
21
2250.69
6
2357.64
79
2269.2
2376.24
8

8356

2094500

8268.992

3369200

8948.6084

2653300

9010.208

1695200

7549.4084

2589200

9002.784

2457800

9430.5916
9076.8

1889300
2192600

0
0

0
0

9504.992

1244200

2517
2523.89
6
2684.10
4
2996.75
2
2879.69
6
2828.60
01
2980.84
79
3133.89
6

10068

1296700

10095.584

2654800

10736.416

1829300

11987.008

2195600

11518.784

2347900

11314.4004

2000400

11923.3916

1994800

12535.584

2626600

21 | P a g e

2/May/200
6
1/Jun/200
6
3/Jul/2006
1/Aug/200
6
1/Sep/200
6
2/Oct/200
6
1/Nov/200
6
1/Dec/200
6
1/Jan/200
7
1/Feb/200
7
1/Mar/200
7
2/Apr/200
7
1/May/200
7
1/Jun/200
7
2/Jul/2007
1/Aug/200
7
3/Sep/200
7
1/Oct/200
7
1/Nov/200
7
3/Dec/200
7
1/Jan/200
8
1/Feb/200
8
3/Mar/200
8
1/Apr/200
8
1/May/200
8
2/Jun/200
8
1/Jul/2008

2908.04
81
3077.55
2
1653.9

11632.1924

1696300

12310.208
13231.2

1689300
1987300

0
0

0
0

1808.8

14470.4

969800

1847.9

14783.2

797400

2094.8
2180.44
8

16758.4

1256700

17443.584

966200

2240.5
2244.44
8
2078.35
21

17924

804800

17955.584

1025900

16626.8168

1028400

2012.6
2049.35
21
1920.24
8

16100.8

1230900

16394.8168

1326600

15361.984

1208000

1929.2
1977.24
8
1855.05
2
1896.75
2

15433.6

993100

15817.984

1471500

14840.416

1172000

15174.016

1126300

1839.1
1604.05
2

14712.8

1656500

12832.416

1255200

1768.4

14147.2

805100

1503.9
1546.84
8
1430.15
2
1753.75
2
1957.55
2
1734.75
2
1583.3

12031.2

1223800

12374.784

943000

11441.216

982700

14030.016

1926400

15660.416

1512900

13878.016
12666.4

1186800
1928500

0
0

0
0

22 | P a g e

1/Aug/200
8
1/Sep/200
8
1/Oct/200
8
3/Nov/200
8
1/Dec/200
8
1/Jan/200
9
2/Feb/200
9
2/Mar/200
9
1/Apr/200
9
1/May/200
9
1/Jun/200
9
1/Jul/2009
3/Aug/200
9
1/Sep/200
9
1/Oct/200
9
2/Nov/200
9
1/Dec/200
9
1/Jan/201
0
1/Feb/201
0
1/Mar/201
0
1/Apr/201
0
3/May/201
0
1/Jun/201
0
1/Jul/2010
2/Aug/201
0
1/Sep/201
0
1/Oct/201

1748.5
1397.55
2
1381.65
2

13988

1206900

11180.416

1337900

11053.216

1263700

1240.6
1117.84
8

9924.8

1362100

8942.784

1081600

1305.5

10444

1563400

1231.3

9850.4

862500

1324.1

10592.8

786600

1507.3

12058.4

774600

1602

12816

858500

1776.9
2063.89
99

14215.2

695500

16511.1992

1054400

2132.3
2308.39
99
2205.39
99
2383.94
8
2605.24
8

17058.4

575700

18467.1992

510600

17643.1992

668400

19071.584

918300

20841.984

503900

2476.7
2601.60
01
2615.10
01
2736.14
79
2657.64
79
2788.55
2
2788.85
21
2707.10
01

19813.6

675700

20812.8008

424400

20920.8008

414500

21889.1832

713000

21261.1832

401300

22308.416

346800

22310.8168

523500

21656.8008

292700

3041
2969.60

24328
23756.8008

363900
572300

1
1

0
78660
0
77460
0
85850
0
69550
0
10544
00
57570
0
51060
0
66840
0
91830
0
50390
0
67570
0
42440
0
41450
0
71300
0
40130
0
34680
0
52350
0
29270
0
36390
0
57230

23 | P a g e

0
1/Nov/201
0
1/Dec/201
0
3/Jan/201
1
1/Feb/201
1
1/Mar/201
1
1/Apr/201
1
2/May/201
1
1/Jun/201
1

01
3049.44
8

24395.584

302500

3445

27560

353400

3116.3
3003.05
2
3236.75
2
2905.94
8
2791.85
21
2907.39
99

24930.4

479200

24024.416

366700

25894.016

460400

23247.584

1394000

22334.8168

379800

23259.1992

338200

1/Jul/2011
1/Aug/201
1
2/Sep/201
1
3/Oct/201
1
1/Nov/201
1
1/Dec/201
1
2/Jan/201
2
1/Feb/201
2
1/Mar/201
2
2/Apr/201
2
1/May/201
2
1/Jun/201
2

2766.8
2354.10
01

22134.4

500400

18832.8008

717100

2533.8

20270.4

742100

2875.2
2607.55
2
2765.05
2
2743.35
21
2875.39
99
2864.94
8
2462.60
01
2439.85
21
2502.55
2
2227.39
99
2373.24
8

23001.6

875400

20860.416

567600

22120.416

466500

21946.8168

727500

23003.1992

352100

22919.584

385600

19700.8008

1181600

19518.8168

440800

20020.416

404600

17819.1992

716300

18985.984

266700

2534

20272

311800

2363.5
2436.60
01

18908

682300

19492.8008

357800

2318.5

18548

303300

2/Jul/2012
1/Aug/201
2
3/Sep/201
2
1/Oct/201
2
1/Nov/201
2
3/Dec/201
2

24 | P a g e

0
30250
0
35340
0
47920
0
36670
0
46040
0
13940
00
37980
0
33820
0
50040
0
71710
0
74210
0
87540
0
56760
0
46650
0
72750
0
35210
0
38560
0
11816
00
44080
0
40460
0
71630
0
26670
0
31180
0
68230
0
35780
0
30330
0

1/Jan/201
3
1/Feb/201
3
1/Mar/201
3
1/Apr/201
3
1/May/201
3
3/Jun/201
3
1/Jul/2013
1/Aug/201
3
2/Sep/201
3
1/Oct/201
3
1/Nov/201
3
2/Dec/201
3
1/Jan/201
4
3/Feb/201
4
3/Mar/201
4
1/Apr/201
4
1/May/201
4
2/Jun/201
4
1/Jul/2014
1/Aug/201
4
1/Sep/201
4
1/Oct/201
4
3/Nov/201
4
1/Dec/201
4
1/Jan/201
5
2/Feb/201
5
2/Mar/201

2788.75
2

22310.016

729400

2906
2889.89
99
2234.44
8
2407.60
01
2493.24
8
2967.14
79

23248

302000

23119.1992

237500

17875.584

1065400

19260.8008

286700

19945.984

345700

23737.1832

488300

3100.3
3015.44
8
3308.64
79

24802.4

328700

24123.584

289400

26469.1832

501100

3353.5

26828

335400

3485.5
3699.44
8

27884

287700

29595.584

375500

3820.2
3278.85
21

30561.6

231300

26230.8168

314900

3177.2

25417.6

326700

2941.5
3246.44
8

23532

656100

25971.584

386800

3365.7

26925.6

225000

3594
3747.64
79
4051.43
99
2179.62
01

28752

183700

29981.1832

265000

32411.5192

361400

34873.9216

242900

1971.2

31539.2

783000

2142.76
2266.36
01
2216.60

34284.16

479000

36261.7616
35465.6016

182700
216200

1
1

25 | P a g e

72940
0
30200
0
23750
0
10654
00
28670
0
34570
0
48830
0
32870
0
28940
0
50110
0
33540
0
28770
0
37550
0
23130
0
31490
0
32670
0
65610
0
38680
0
22500
0
18370
0
26500
0
36140
0
24290
0
78300
0
47900
0
18270
0
21620

5
1/Apr/201
5
1/May/201
5
1/Jun/201
5
1/Jul/2015

01
1942.4

31078.4

428400

2022.4

32358.4

427200

985.35
1063.5

31531.2
34032

240700
246300

0
42840
0

Regression with Independent Var. (X)

Regression Statistics
0.66396405
Multiple R
2
0.44084826
R Square
2
0.43772450
Adjusted R Square
9
6422.81555
Standard Error
1
Observations
181

Close

Volume

32358.4

427200

31531.2

240700

34032

246300

Forecast MAPE
18156.916
39 44%
18387.017
03 42%
18380.107
84 46%
44%

ANOVA
df
Regression

Residual

179

Total

180

Significanc
SS
MS
F
eF
582188181 582188181 141.12777 2.25775E6
6
18
24
738420816 41252559.
9
6
132060899
84

Standard
Coefficients
Error
t Stat
18683.9887 593.219938 31.495888
Intercept
4
1
02
Volume(Independe 0.00123378 0.00010385 11.879721
nt Variable)
4
6
03

P-value
6.38708E75
2.25775E24

Regression with (X), Dummy(D), DX

Conclusion:
26 | P a g e

27 | P a g e