10th August (Monday), 2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine
10th August (Monday), 2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine
10th August (Monday), 2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine
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August 10,2015
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The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) has released two cold-tolerant rice varieties in
Madagascar under its Stress-tolerant Rice for Africa and South Asia (STRASA) program,
according to a news release on its website.
The program will be overseen by Madagascar's national rice program FOFIFA and carried out by
the Africa Rice Center (AfriceRice) through its Africa-wide Rice Breeding Task Force.
The two varieties FOFIFA 183 and FOFIFA 184 were launched on May 22, 2015 in the presence
of Madagascar's Agriculture Minister, the Director General of FOFIFA and the Director General
of AfricaRice.
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The central plateau region is a very important rice growing area in the country. However, rice
production here is severely impacted by cold weather. The two newly released varieties are
expected to help farmers improve their productivity even as extreme weather conditions such as
cold. As high-quality rice seeds are crucial for boosting rice production, the FOFIFA and
AfricaRice, through support from the STRASA project, have produced 5 tons of certified rice
seeds to be distributed to farmers.
The government decided to intervene after the devastating cyclone Chezda, which destroyed a lot
of the rice crop in Madagascar earlier this year, according to the news release.
The African island country produced around 4.3 million tons of paddy rice in 2014, up about
19% from around 3.6 million tons produced in 2013 due to well distributed rains in the 2013-14
cropping season.
USDA estimates Madagascar to produce about 2.56 million tons of rice basis milled (around 4
million tons, basis paddy), and import around 300,000 tons in MY 2015-16 (May 2015
April 2016).
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Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $375- $385 per ton, about $40 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice was
last shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $10 per ton
from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton. India's 100%
broken rice is shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, about a $25 per ton premium on Pakistan
broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.
Total area planting to India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop (June - December) stood at around
27.8 million hectares as of August 07, 2015, up about 4.5% from around 22.6 million hectares
planted during the same time last year, according to a press release by the Agriculture Ministry.
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Indian monsoons, which were 4% below normal in the previous week, weakened and are 7%
below normal as on August 7, 2015, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
Central, south peninsular and north-east regions received 6%, 22% and 10% below average rains
during the week. However, the north-west region received 3% above-average rainfall.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a 16% deficit in the rainfall during
the second half (August-September) of the monsoon season (June-September). The weather
bureau forecasts August to receive 10% deficit rainfall and a higher deficit in September. The
Head of the long-range forecasting at IMD noted that India's north-west region may witness
highest deficit of around 15% in rainfall in the remaining season while central, and eastern India
are expected to receive heavy rains.
The Director of the Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI) noted that it is too early to decide
whether the rainfall deficit will impact rice productivity. However, he noted that the government
could assist farmers in areas that are more likely to be affected by a dry spell.
A likely drought-inducing El Nino this year is expected to lower production prospects this year.
The IMD has forecasted the El Nino pattern to reach to moderate to a strong one during the
monsoon season (June September).
Global rice prices are expected to increase by 10-20% as drought-inducing El Nino is likely to
dampen production prospects in Asian countries, including India, Thailand, Indonesia and the
Philippines.
The total Kharif crop sown area stands at 84.7 million hectares as on August 7, 2015, up about
5% from around 80.7 million hectares during the same period last year, according to the
Agriculture Ministry.
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Researchers from the Thailand Development Research (TDRI) have recommended to the
government to set up a 'Rice Market Development Institute' to enhance rice related research,
disseminate credible information to farmers, millers and traders, encourage small and medium
operators to export their stocks, as well as increase export competitiveness of Thai rice,
according to local sources.
"The institute will be in charge of maintaining Thailand's share of the global market by providing
market intelligence to operators, researching advanced strains to increase export channels and
draw up a mid- to long-term policy regarding the development of exporting," one of the leading
researchers and economists of TDRI was quoted as saying in a seminar organized by the
institute.
He also stated that in the light of Thai rice exporters facing a stiff competition with Vietnam,
Thailand's small and medium sized entrepreneur should be provided with credible market
information to help them take proper decisions that won't affect their income as well as
reputation of Thai rice in the global market.
"A lack of public research on the rice market also hurts Thai rice competitiveness," he said.
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A 'Rice Market Development Institute' would help the rice stakeholders with up-to-date
information on rice output, market demand, climate forecast and laws in importing and other
exporting countries.
He reportedly told that the TDRI is planning to discuss the proposal with the private sector and
present to the National Rice Policy Committee and the Cabinet shortly.
The researcher noted that such an institute needs to be independent free of political and
government interference in order to achieve the desired results. He also stressed that they want
the institute to take shape under the military rule as elected governments are often interested in
subsidies and ignore long-term research development. He also noted that the Institute should be
chaired by the Commerce Permanent Secretary to facilitate cooperation with the bureaucracy and
receive government funding for the first few years until its is self-sufficient.
The President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) supported the view of TDRI. "The
most important thing is a clear, continuous and long-term strategy that will help with the
development of Thai rice and its market," he was quoted as saying.
Analysts say the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks, which ended indecisively last week, may
be pushed back until 2017 if it does not get ratified by the U.S. Congress this year. Also, the
Obama government is serious on finalizing the agreement this year.
Normally, in the U.S. there should be 90-days time between a final agreement and ratification by
the Congress. However, the present U.S. Congress has only 45 legislative days left in 2015 and
2016 is an election year. Technically, Congress can increase the legislative days if needed. So,
the TPP could be ratified this year if all the parties reach an agreement soon, though this seems
to be unlikely.
The U.S. Congress usually does not pass any major agreements during an election year.
Therefore, in this situation, analysts say the TPP may not be considered until 2017. Analysts also
say that there is a possibility that TPP may never materialize under a new government.
The TPP agreement getting ratified by 12 governments, including those of the U.S., Canada,
Japan, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam ,
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seems to be a difficult task given the upcoming elections in Canada and the U.S., according to
the analysts.
Canada's reluctance to open its dairy sector, Japan's reluctance to open its rice sector, The U.S'.
reluctance to open its pharma and auto sectors, along with Australia and New Zealand demands
on sugar and pharma exports seem to the main roadblocks for the completion of the TPP talks.
The Chief Editor of the Economist magazine says with so many countries joining the league, the
TPP has turned out be a political project rather than an economic one. He stresses that while the
earlier trade agreements focused on physical goods trading, the current TPP is also focusing on
the intellectual property, investment and services. He suggests that the TPP could be successful if
a smaller group, perhaps the four founding countries of Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and
Singapore, could finalize something and slowly others could join.
However, the negotiators of the participating countries are hopeful that TPP is still within reach
though much progress has not been made so far.
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The government of Panama is facing a challenge in approving genetically modified (GM) rice
for commercialization and human consumption as it needs to first establish and implement
regulations for the laws on biosafety and biotechnology, according to USDA Post.
It is understood that the government has still not prioritized biotechnology development.
The Post reports that the government of Panama has recently approved the import of GM corn
seeds for local production and also conducted field trials for GM mosquitoes and salmon.
Panama produces around 150,000 tons of milled rice yearly, about 65% of rice needed for
domestic consumption of around 230,000 tons, and imports the rest, according to USDA.
The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,
averaged about $404 per ton in July, up about $1 per ton from a month ago and down about $69
per ton from a year ago.
Global rice export prices were mostly lower in July, with the exception of Thailand and India.
Thailand rice export prices advanced as concern over the drought and delays in plantings
supported quotations in the first three weeks of the month. Among other origin markets, the
arrival of new crop supplies pushed prices lower in Viet Nam. Prices also fell in Pakistan, Brazil,
Uruguay and the U.S., but moved up in India in reaction to a revival of sales to Africa.
Thailand
Average prices for Thai 5% broken rice in July were about $383 per ton, up about 5% per ton
from a month ago and down about 9% per ton from a year ago.
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The Thai Commerce Ministry is planning to auction over 668,000 tons of stockpiled rice on
August 11, 2015, according to local sources. Bidders are supposed to submit documents on
August 10 and the names of qualified bidders are scheduled to be announced on the morning of
August 11 before the bidding process begins. Qualified bidders can submit their bids until
afternoon and the winners will be announced on the same day, according to Ministry
sources. This is the fifth auction this year and ninth one after the military government took over
in May 2014.The government sold about 3.88 million of rice raising about 40 billion baht (about
$1.15 billion) from the first eight auctions. The military government is still holding about 15.11
million tons of rice in its stockpiles. The Thai government is estimating losses from selling the
stockpiled rice at about 100 billion baht (about $2.93 billion), Bloomberg quoted the Commerce
Minister.
The government of Thailand is expecting to export about 10 million tons of rice in 2015 due to
an expected increase in demand in the world market. Meanwhile, Thailand Rice Exporters
Association (TREA) is expecting this year's rice exports to be lower than their target of 10
million tons due to extending drought conditions and sluggish world economy. TREA is
expecting Thailand to export about 9.5 million tons of rice this year, including 4.8 million tons of
white rice, 2.2 million tons of Hom Mali fragrant rice, 200,000 tons of glutinous rice and
100,000 tons of Pathum Thani fragrant rice. Thailand exported about 4.3 million tons of rice
January 1- June 23, 2015. The government of Thailand has struck preliminary deals to export
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about 760,000 tons of stockpiled rice to African nations, including Mozambique, Nigeria and
South Africa; Reuters quoted the Honorary President of the TREA.
The USDA estimates Thailand's 2015 rice exports to decline about 18% to about 9 million tons
from an estimated 10.97 million tons in 2014 due to a stiff competition with Vietnam and India
as well as expected limited exportable supplies. The agency forecast Thailand's MY 2015-16
(January -December 2015) milled rice production at about 18 million tons, down about 7% from
about 19.4 million tons due to on-going drought in irrigated areas, particularly in the lower
northern region and the central plains.
The government of Thailand, which planned to hold an auction to sell about 1.29 million tons of
sub-standard rice in, early July, has decided to postpone it to August to allow officials to conduct
the rice separation process thoroughly, according to local sources. The Minister assured the
public that rotten and fungal-contaminated rice will not be mixed with rice meant for
consumption and terms of each auctions will specify the industries targeted for the auction and
officials would be assigned to follow up the process and delivery of the rice to respective
destinations. Meanwhile, Thailand rice traders are urging the government to speed up sales of
rotten rice stocks to take advantage of the high demand in the market amid concerns of falling
production due to drought conditions.
Thailand's Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) estimates output from 2015 main rice crop,
which contributes to about 70% of the country's total rice output, to decline about 14% to about
23.3 million tons from about 27.1 million tons last year due to persisting drought conditions,
according to Bloomberg. Separately, the government of Thailand has approved loans of about
$60 billion baht (about $1.77 billion) to support rice farmers impacted by drought. Meanwhile,
the Thai Insurance Commission has decided to increase this year's target for rice insurance
policies for in-season paddy fields by about 500,000 rai (about 80,000 hectares) to about 2
million rai (about 320,000 hectares) in order to support farmers affected by drought, according to
local sources. The Chairman of the Rice Committee of National Farmers' Council urged the
government of Thailand to pay compensation to farmers whose lands have been impacted by the
cut in water supplies, according to local sources.
TREA is expecting the ongoing drought conditions to push up Thailand's domestic and export
rice prices in the second half of 2015, according to local sources. So far, drought and water
shortages have damaged about 1.5 million rai (about 240,000 hectares) of main rice crop, or
about 19% of 8 million rai planted (about 1.28 million hectares) in nearly 22 provinces of
Central Thailand. The main rice crop contributes to about 70% of the country's total rice output.
Vietnam
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Average prices for Vietnam 5% broken rice in July were about $349 per ton, down about 1% per
ton from month ago and down about 20% per ton from a year ago.
Vietnam exported about 2.926 million tons of rice in January 1 - July 23, 2015, down about 19%
from about 3.63 million tons of rice exported in first seven months of 2014, according to data
from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Meanwhile, the VFA has forecast Vietnam to export
about 5.91 million tons of rice in 2015, down about 6.5% from an earlier estimated 6.32 million
tons exported in 2014. Vietnam rice exports, which have been relatively sluggish in the first half
of 2015, are expected to increase in the second half due to a likely increase in demand from
China, Malaysia and Indonesia, Chairman of the VFA said.
Meanwhile, FAO forecasts Vietnam's 2015 rice exports at about 6.3 million tons, slightly down
from last year's below-average level of 6.5 million tons. The agency forecasts Vietnam's 2015
total paddy production at about 44.68 million tons (about 28.8 million tons, basis milled), down
about 1% from last year's 44.98 million tons (about 29 million tons, basis milled).
Separately, Vietnams Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has advised rice
farmers in the drought-ridden central and Northern provinces to shift from rice to other droughtresistant crops, according to local sources.
Cambodia
Cambodia is less likely to be affected by the El Nino than neighboring Thailand, the local
sources quoted the spokesman of the Ministry of Water Resource and Meteorology as saying.
Cambodian rice exporters are worried of losing market share in the European Union (EU) market
if the EU-Vietnam Bilateral Free Trade Agreement (EU-V BFTA) is finalized. Under the
proposed deal, EU is planning to import about 76,000 tons of rice, mostly husked and milled,
from Vietnam at zero percent duty.
Meanwhile, Cambodia's Commerce Ministry has agreed to invest about $450,000 as a onetime
seed capital in the country's rice sector to help boost exports, local sources quoted an official
from the Cambodian Rice Federation (CRF).
Myanmar
The Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) expects paddy output of about 14 million tons (about 8.96
million tons, basis milled) in 2015. The government has been targeting to export about 2 million
tons of rice this year. Myanmar exported about 1.8 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15. The
General Secretary of MRF said that heavy rains and flooding since mid-July in Myanmar's
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Sagaing Region, Shan State and Kachin State have destroyed more than 24,000 hectares of
paddy fields, but the country's exports may not be affected significantly.
Meanwhile, the Myanmar Agribusiness Public Company Limited (MAPCO) will export 3,000
Tons of Rice to China, part of the 100,000 tons to be exported to China under a memorandum of
understanding (MoU) signed between the MRF and China's National Cereals, Oils and
Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO). Myanmar is also planning to clinch an export deal with the
Philippines as part of its efforts to diversify its export markets and reduce dependence on China,
local sources quoted the Secretary of the MRF. Meanwhile, Myanmar rice exporters have
decided to suspend rice exports until September 15, 2015, as part of efforts to avoid price hikes
during floods, Bangkok Post quoted the Vice-Chairman of the MRF.
Rice farmers in Laos are worried the existing dry conditions and insufficient rainfall to the El
Nino phenomenon are likely to severely impact rice production in the country, according to local
sources. It also reported that a total of 104,000 hectares of rice land across the country were
affected due to the dry conditions.
Philippines
The Philippines paddy output in the first half of 2015 has reached about 8.3 million tons, down
about 1% from last year's 8.39 million tons and down about 2.4% from the targeted 8.5 million
tons, according to a preliminary report by the Department of Agriculture (DA). The Agriculture
Secretary noted that the government still adheres to the 20.8 million tons target for this year. He
expressed confidence that the rice output would improve during the wet cropping season, which
contributes to nearly 60% of the country's annual production, in the second half of the year. The
government plans to plant about 400,000 high-quality seeds, including 331,000 hybrid seeds and
77,000 inbred seeds, by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, the south-west monsoon rains have damaged about 18.8 million peso (about
$415,455) worth rice crop in the northern Luzon region of the Philippines, Bloomberg quoted the
Office of Civil Defense. Separately, The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (Pagasa) has warned that the El Nino phenomenon, which started as a
weak one in March and turned moderate in June, is heading to the most intense stage by October,
according to local sources.
The Philippines' National Food Authority (NFA) has allowed private traders to import about
805,200 tons of 25% broken rice at 35% tariff under the WTO Minimum Access Volume (MAV)
country specific quota (CSQ) before November 30, 2015. Under the quota, Philippines traders
can import up to 293,100 tons each from Thailand and Vietnam; up to 50,000 tons each from
China, India and Pakistan; 15,000 tons from El Salvador and the rest from other countries.
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However, so far the private traders have applied to import only 300,000 tons of rice from
Thailand and Vietnam, Reuters quoted a NFA official. Separately, the NFA has decided to
import 750,000 tons of rice (200,000 tons from Thailand and 550,000 tons from Vietnam) under
government-to-government deals in 2015 to ensure adequate stocks in the lean season (June
September).
The government of the Philippines is studying the demand and supply conditions of rice in the
country to assess the need for more rice imports this year amid concerns of an intensifying El
Nino, Reuters quoted the Director of the Department of Economic Research at the Bangko
Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
The NFA is inviting farmers organizations (FOs) and farmers associations (FAs) to distribute
about 100,000 tons of NFA rice stocks under the Institutionalized Farmers as Distributors (Ifad)
Program, according to local sources. Total rice stocks in the Philippines as of June 1, 2015
reached about 3.02 million tons, down about 5% from about 3.17 million tons recorded in May
2015, and up about 31% from about 2.31 million tons recorded during the same period last year.
The Philippines' rice stocks as of June 1, 2015 are enough to last for 89 days.
China
China has imported about 1.42 million tons of rice in the first six months of 2015 (January June), up about 7% from about 1.32 million tons imported during the same period last year,
according to data from China Customs General Administration. Meanwhile, China has exported
about 116,500 tons of rice in first six months of 2015, up about 45% from about 80,346 tons
exported during the same period last year, according to data.
Separately, the government of China has put on hold a $300 million loan to a Cambodian rice
project, aimed at developing storage and warehousing facilities in the country, as the government
of Cambodia has not been able to meet the criteria set by the Chinese authorities, local sources
quoted an official associated with the project.
India
Average prices for India 5% broken rice in July were about $388 per ton, up about 2% per ton
from a month ago, and down about 11% per ton from a year ago.
The USDA forecasts India's MY 2014-15 (October - September) rice export to reach at about
11.7 million tons, up about 15% from the previous year and about 15% from USDA's official
estimates of about 10.2 million tons. According to the available preliminary data, India exported
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about 9 million tons of rice as of June 30, 2015, about 1.6 million tons higher compared to rice
exported during the same period last year. Meanwhile, India, which exported about 3.7 million
tons of basmati rice in FY 2014-15 (April - May), is expected to export about 4 million tons of
basmati in FY 2015-16 due to a steady demand, local sources quoted the Director of the Basmati
Export Development Foundation, Agricultural & Processed Food Products Export Development
Authority (APEDA). Separately, the lifting of sanctions on Iran by the U.S. and the E.U will not
affect India's basmati rice exports though exports of other commodities like soymeal, sugar and
corn are likely to be affected, the Economic Times quoted analysts as saying.
The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain procurement and
distribution has procured about 31.722 million tons of rice as of August 3, 2015 in KMS 2014-15
(October 2014 - September 2015), down about 1% from last year, according to data by the
Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution. Meanwhile, The government of India
is planning to procure about 30 million tons of rice in the 2015-16 kharif marketing season
(October 2015 - September 2016). The government of India is also planning to involve private
players in the rice procurement process for the 2015-16 kharif marketing season (October September) in some states in order to address inadequate storage facilities.
Total area planting to India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop (June - December) stood at about
22.8 million hectares as of July 31, 2015, up about 6% from about 21.5 million hectares planted
during the same time last year, according to a press release by the Agriculture Ministry.
The government of India has removed quantitative restrictions on exports of rice bran oil and
allowed for its bulk exports, according to local sources. Meanwhile, rice bran oil exporters are
expecting higher interest from Japan for India's rice bran oil, according to local sources. India
can export up to 50,000 tons of rice bran oil annually, according to industry estimates.
Planting for the ongoing 2015 secondary yala rice crop (March - September) in Sri Lanka has
reached record 497,552 hectares as of the June 30, 2015, according to data released by the Socio
Economics and Planning Centre of the Peradeniya Agriculture Department. Based on the
planting pace, the government forecasts paddy output from the ongoing yala rice crop at about
1.91 million tons, up about 67% from last year and about 28% higher from average of last five
yala seasons. Separately, the government of Sri Lanka is planning to procure about 120,000 tons
of paddy from farmers during the upcoming secondary 'yala' (March - September) harvest,
according to local sources.
Pakistan
Average prices for Pakistan 5% broken rice in July were about $375 per ton, down about 3% per
ton from a month ago and down about 15% per ton from a year ago.
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Pakistan exported about 3.93 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15 (July-June), up about 6% from
about 3.72 million tons exported in FY 2013-14, according to preliminary data from the Pakistan
Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
Meanwhile, Pakistan rice sector is currently facing excess stocks problem as its exports have
been impacted by a stiff competition from other rice exporting nations such as Thailand, India
and Vietnam; falling global rice prices and low demand from rice importing countries. Currently,
Pakistan is said to have about 600,000 tons of basmati stocks and traders are expecting to add
another 400,000 tons this year taking the stock level to about one million tons by the end of this
year. Separately, Pakistan Finance Minister has met with the Kenyan High Commissioner and
requested him to review the high level of import duty on Pakistani rice, according to local
sources. Kenya, which is a part of the East African Community (EAC), imposes 75% duty on
rice imports from non-EAC countries. The EAC is keen on protecting the region's local rice
sector from the cheap imported rice from the Asian countries.
Pakistan's Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) has fixed the 2015- 16 (July - June) milled
rice production target at about 6.902 million tons (about 10.21 million tons, basis paddy) from
about 2.836 million hectares. It is targeting a yield of about 2.434 tons per hectare in 2015-16.
Pakistan rice exporters are reportedly expressing concern that the country's rice sector lacks a
specific forum that would fix, maintain and control rice prices in the country, according to local
sources.
Bangladesh
The USDA estimates Bangladesh MY 2015-16 rice imports at about 600,000 tons, down about
51% from an estimated 1.22 million tons last year due to expected high domestic supplies and
the 10% duty on rice imports that was imposed in May this year to curb cheap Indian rice
imports that generally constitute the largest proportion of the import market. Meanwhile,
Bangladesh has imported about 1.49 million tons of rice in the fiscal year 2014-15 (July - June),
four times more than 374,560 tons imported in FY 2013-14, local sources quoted data from Food
Ministry.
The USDA estimates Bangladesh's MY 2015-16 total rice acreage and production at about 11.8
million hectares and 34.8 million tons respectively. Assuming a normal monsoon, the Post
expects Aman rice seedling production to progress as scheduled. The Agency reports that the
government procured about 942,932 tons of rice from the domestic market in FY 2014-15 (JulyJune) and as on July 21, 2015, the government rice stocks stood at about 1.09 million tons. The
government planned to procure one million tons of Boro milled rice and 100,000 tons of Boro
paddy rice between May 1 to August 31, 2015. Meanwhile, the government has planned to
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procure one million tons of 2015 Boro paddy and 100,000 tons of Boro rice between May 1,
2015 and August 31, 2015. It has fixed the procurement price for paddy at Tk 22 per kilogram
(about $283 per ton) and that for rice at Tk 32 per kilogram (about $412 per ton).
Bangladesh rice farmers are denying to cultivate hybrid rice this year despite the Agriculture
Ministry encouraging them to increase planting of hybrid rice, according to local sources. Some
farmers told reporters that cost of producing hybrid rice is very high (about 10-15% higher than
normal varieties) but prices they receive are very low. They also noted that consumers are
unwilling to buy hybrid rice.
Separately, the government of Bangladesh has released five new Aman rice varieties that are
high-yielding and are capable of withstanding extreme climate conditions, according to local
sources. While four of the varieties, BRRI 70, 71, 72 and 73 are developed by the Bangladesh
Rice Research Institute (BRRI), the other one BINA Dhan 17 is developed by the Bangladesh
Institute of Nuclear Agriculture (BINA).
The Bangladesh Tariff Commission (BTC) urged the government to maximize the use of rice
bran in order to increase the edible oil production in the country, according to Financial Express.
A study titled 'Rice Bran Oil and its Prospect in Bangladesh' by the BTC found that only 500,000
tons, or less than a quarter of about 2.5 million tons of rice bran produced in the country is used
by local oil companies to produce edible oil.
Indonesia
The FAO estimates Indonesia to import about 900,000 tons of rice in 2015, down about 10%
from an estimated one million tons last year due to a favorable outlook for 2015 aggregate rice
production and self-sufficiency policies.
The agency estimates Indonesia's 2015 aggregate paddy rice production at about 75.6 million
tons (about 48.34 million tons of rice, basis milled), up about 7% from an estimated 70.61
million tons (about 45.2 million tons of rice, basis milled) in 2014. Meanwhile, the government
of Indonesia is expecting the country's 2015 paddy rice output at about 75.2 million tons, slightly
below the 75.5 million tons. Extending drought conditions as said to have affected about 111,000
hectares of rice planted area and about 8,900 hectares of cultivated land may see a failed harvest,
according to the official. About 14 million hectares of land is planted with rice, said the official.
Meanwhile, the government has allocated about 2.8 trillion Rupiah (about $208 million) to
support rice sector. With the allocated funds, the government is planning to develop water supply
for drought-affected areas.
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Separately, the government of Indonesia has been successful in protecting about 102,000
hectares of rice from drought conditions during the period October 2014 - July 2015, local
sources quoted the Agriculture Minister as saying. The Minister noted that only 57,000 hectares
of rice lands have been impacted by drought conditions in the ten-month period, compared to
about 159,000 hectares impacted last year. He added that the government saved about 500,000
tons of paddy worth 2 trillion Rupiah (about $149 million) from being lost due to drought.
South & Central America
Average prices for Brazil 5% broken rice stand at about $513 per ton in July, down about 7%
per ton from a month ago and down about 23% per ton from a year ago. Brazils National Grains
Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy rice production at about
12.499 million tons (about 8.50 million tons, basis milled), up about 3% from about 12.121
million tons (about 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14, and slightly down from its June
forecast of about 12.544 million tons. Meanwhile, the USDA estimates MY 2015-16 milled rice
production at about 8.3 million tons, down about 2% from last year; and up about 4% from
USDA's official estimates, assuming normal weather.
The USDA estimates Brazil's MY 2015-16 (April 2015 - March 2016) rice exports at about
900,000 tons, unchanged from MY 2014-15. Separately, Brazil has exported about 532,625 tons
of rice in the first six months (January June) of 2015, according to data released by the Rice
Institute of Rio Grande do Sul (IRGA). Brazil rice stocks stood at about 127,970 tons in June
2015, slightly down from about 128,120 tons in May 2015 and down about 76% from about
540,961 tons in June 2014, according to the country's national grain supplying agency Conab.
Average prices for five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina stand at about $547
per ton in July, down about 3% per ton from a month ago, and down about 12% per ton from a
year ago.
The USDA estimates Argentina MY 2014-15 (April 2015 - March 2016) rice exports at about
450,000 tons, down about 3% from last year and down about 24% from USDA's official
estimates of about 590,000 tons due to an expected decline in production. The agency estimates
Argentina's MY 2014-15 paddy production at about 1.25 million tons, down about 12% from last
year and down about 22% from USDA's official estimates of about 1.615 million tons due to an
expected decline in harvested area. Uruguayan rice farmers are facing a double whammy with
extending dry weather conditions on one hand and falling water levels in dams, rivers and ponds
on the other, Bloomberg quoted local sources. The country, which planted rice in about 170,000
hectares and produced a paddy yield of about 8.7 tons per hectare in 2014, is doubtful of
maintaining this pace this year.
Page 19 of 29
The USDA estimates Venezuelas MY 2015-16 (April - March) milled rice production at about
340,000 tons, down from last year's 360,000 tons and down from USDA's official estimates of
about 380,000 tons. The agency estimates Venezuela's MY 2015-16 rice imports to decline about
10% to about 450,000 tons from last year's 500,000 tons due to the continuing foreign exchange
problems and an end of the PetroCaribe Deal with Guyana this November. Separately, the
PetroCaribe Deal between Venezuela and Guyana is coming to an end as Venezuela has not
agreed to renew it after it expires in November this year, according to local sources. Venezuela
sells oil to Guyana and buys rice from Guyana under the deal. The government of Venezuela has
also ordered rice farmers to sell between 30% and 100% of their output to state stores to address
the problem of food shortages, according to the Telegraph.
Ecuador's winter rice crop (December - June) output is expected to increase about 3% y/y due to
an increase in the acreage by about 3% y/y, local sources quoted a report by the Central Bank of
Ecuador (BCE). The Bank expects an increase in the winter rice crop harvest, which declined for
three consecutive years. The South American nation's 2014 winter rice output declined by about
8% y/y while the area sown to the crop declined about 2% y/y. Ecuador has been self-sufficient
in rice production for the last two years, according to USDA.
The Dominican Republic-Central America FTA (CAFTA-DR) free trade pact has helped
Dominican Republic farmers to lower their rice production costs by about 30% in the last three
years, according to local sources. Free import of agricultural equipment from the U.S. under the
pact has encouraged improved rice cultivation methods by the farmers, according to the
Agriculture Bank (Bagricola) Administrator.
U.S.
Average prices for U.S. 4% broken rice stand at about $470 per ton in July, up about 1% per ton
from a month ago and down about 15% per ton from a year ago.
The USDA estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice supplies at about 12.63 million tons, down about 4%
from last month's estimates of about 13.13 million tons due to an expected decline in production.
The agency estimates U.S. all rice production (milled basis) at about 9.39 million tons, down
from last month's estimate of 9.93 million tons due to an estimated decline in paddy rice acreage.
It estimates 2015-16 all rice use at about 10.89 million tons, down from last month's estimates of
about 10.93 million tons due to an estimated decline in domestic & residual use since exports are
estimated to be unchanged from last month. The agency estimates 2015-16 ending stocks 1.74
million tons from last months forecast of 2.2 million tons due to an estimated decline in both
long-grain and short-grain rice stocks.
Africa
Page 20 of 29
The Senate has urged the Federal government of Nigeria to withdraw all waivers on rice
importation in order to encourage production in the country, according to local sources. The
Senate also emphasized that the government has been losing about N71 billion (about $356
million) annually due to duty waivers on importation of rice and other agricultural products. It
also stressed on the need to recover all duties due to the government. Separately, The Federal
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) of Nigeria has invited Thailand to
invest in Nigeria's rice industry to help boost production, according to local sources.
Tanzania's paddy rice production increased to about 2 million tons in 2012 from a meagre
320,000 tons in 1978 backed by support from the Japan International Cooperation Agency
(JICA), according to an article in Japan News. Japan first provided their support to the Tanzanian
rice sector in 1970s when Tanzanian rice farmers did not know the right means of cultivating
rice.
Sierra Leone is nearly done planting its new rice crop, and while weather has been beneficial,
the Ebola viruss toll on communities has curtailed farming activities, according to a FAO
GIEWS Country Brief. In 2014, the Ebola outbreak is estimated to have reduced the nations
food crop by about 5% and milled rice production alone which accounts for 85% of cereal
production - declined 8% to an estimated 770,000 tons, according to FAO.
Europe
The European Union's 2015-16 (September - August) rice imports are forecasted to increase
about 3.5% to about 1.18 million tons from an estimated 1.14 million tons, , according to the
report "Rice Market", issued by EU Committee for the Common Organization of Agricultural
Markets on June 25 2015.
Separately, the European association of EU farmers unions and cooperatives has warned about
impact of increasing duty free rice imports to the countries. It noted that already increasing rice
imports from Cambodia (about 22% of EU rice imports) and Myanmar (about 3% of EU rice
imports) in the past three years have led to a decline of about 40% in the EU indica rice acreage
to about 96,000 hectares from about 156,000 hectares. He warned that if the zero-duty rice
imports continue at this pace, there is a danger that the cultivation of Indica rice in Europe will
disappear entirely by 2020. Meanwhile, the European Commission (EC) is planning to import
rice from Vietnam at zero percent duty under a bilateral agreement. The EC is reportedly
planning to import round 76,000 tons of rice, including 30,000 tons of jasmine rice, 30,000 tons
of Long B milled rice and 16,000 tons of husked rice from Vietnam under the agreement.
Italy has exported about 113,068 tons of milled rice in September 1, 2014 - July 21, 2015, up
about 3.8% from about 108,734 tons exported during the same period last year.
Page 21 of 29
Other Markets
The government of Iran has extended deadline for registration of rice, milling wheat, vegetable
oil and raw sugar importers until August 17 from August 6, Bloomberg quoted the Deputy
Managing Director for Foreign Trade at Iran's Governmental Trading Corporation. However, no
decision has been made about the volume of rice and other commodities to be imported, the
official told reporters. Iran has temporarily banned rice imports from November 2014 citing
excess stocks as reason.
Milled rice production in Russia is projected to increase to about 700,000 tons in MY2015-16
(Jan-Dec2016), up from an estimated 682,000 tons in MY2014-15, according to the USDA.
Russias rice import is expected to remain steady at 250,000 tons in MY2015-16, unchanged
from MY2014-15, according to the agency.
The USDA estimates Australia MY 2015-16 (March - February) rice exports to decline about
25% to about 300,000 tons from about 400,000 tons last year due to an expected decline in
production following water shortages. Normally, in a non-drought year, Australia exports nearly
80% of the nation's rice output. However, the agency estimates MY 2015-16 imports to remain
stable at 150,000 tons. The agency forecasts Australia MY 2015-16 production to decline about
4% y/y to about 500,000 tons due to water constraints.
Research and Scientific Development:
Indian researchers from have developed a new rice variety that minimizes absorption of arsenic
from the soil.
http://oryza.com/23234/indian-scientists-develop-low-arsenic-absorbing-rice-variety-muktashri
A team of scientists has developed a new genetically modified rice variety called SUSIBA2 by
adding a barley gene to a conventional rice variety.
http://oryza.com/23302/scientists-develop-low-methane-emitting-gm-rice
Indian researchers has identified three varieties of rice that are suitable for diabetic patients
http://oryza.com/23389/indian-researchers-identify-rice-varieties-diabetic-patients-says-minister
The Philippine Institute of Rice Research (PhilRice) is developing a method under the
Biotechnology Program of the Department of Agriculture (DA), which can help farmers to detect
infections caused by viruses in rice plants even before systems appear.
Page 22 of 29
http://oryza.com/23179/philippines-developing-method-early-detection-viruses-rice-plants
July Tenders:
South Korea issued a tender to buy about 41,000 tons of non-glutinous rice in tenders for
delivery between October 15, 2015 and February 29, 2016 and bought about 30,000 tons of nonglutinous brown rice of Chinese and U.S. origins.
http://oryza.com/23324/south-korea-seeks-buy-41000-tons-non-glutinous-brown-rice-tenders
http://oryza.com/23392/south-korea-buys-30000-tons-non-glutinous-brown-rice-tender
In another tender South Korea purchased 44,104 tons of non-glutinous brown rice of Chinese,
U.S. and Thai origins for delivery between October and December.
http://oryza.com/23151/south-korea-buys-44104-tons-non-glutinous-brown-rice-tender
South Korea has purchased 11,000 tons of non-glutinous brewers milled rice of Vietnamese
origin at about $384.40 per ton for delivery by November 15, 2015.
http://oryza.com/23427/south-korea-purchases-11000-tons-non-glutinous-rice-tender
Iraq issued a tender to purchase about 30,000 tons of rice from U.S., Uruguay, Argentina and
India.
http://oryza.com/23167/iraq-seeks-purchase-30000-tons-rice-international-tenders
Iraq is still considering its tender to purchase at least 30,000 tons of rice in international tenders
from the U.S., Uruguay, Argentina, Thailand, Brazil and India, Reuters quoted European traders.
The tenders closed on June 15, 2015 with offers having to remain valid till July 21, 2015.
http://oryza.com/23336/iraq-still-considering-tender-purchase-least-30000-tons-rice-due-highprices
Page 23 of 29
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen paused 1 cent per cwt (about $0.22
per ton) lower at $11.430 per cwt (about $252 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The
other grains are seen trading higher this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.3%
higher, wheat is listed about 0.4% higher and corn is currently noted as unchanged.
U.S. stock index futures attempted gains on Friday after initially extending losses as investors
digested the latest release of U.S. jobs data. Dow futures initially declined about 60 points after
the mostly in-line jobs report, down from an earlier level of about 30 points lower. The report
said that 215,000 jobs were added in July, with an unemployment rate of 5.3 percent. Average
hourly earnings rose 0.2%, as expected. The economy was expected to have added 223,000
nonfarm payrolls in July, enough to allow the U.S. Federal Reserve to pull the trigger on its first
rate hike in nine years. The Fed will consider a possible first rate hike at its September 16 and
17meeting, but economists say that even with a strong jobs report, it is far from clear cut when
the central will move off of the zero fed funds target rate it has had in place since late 2008.
Around the world, central banks appear slow to want to cut their monetary stimulus. On
Friday the Bank of Japan maintained the current level of its massive monetary stimulus program
steady and stuck to its upbeat assessment of the economy, as expected. Gold is currently trading
about 0.5% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently
trading about 0.5% higher at 8:15am Chicago time.
Average rice export prices were stable to firmer over the last week on ideas of lower stocks and
challenging weather conditions. El Ninos lack of moisture in Asian countries such as India,
Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines is likely to impact global rice production and supplies,
according to most forecasts.
The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,
ended the week at about $398 per ton, up about $1 per ton from a week ago, down about $7 per
ton from a month ago and down about $88 per ton from a year ago.
The FAO All Rice Price Index declined to around 211 points in July 2015, down about 0.9%
from June 2015 due to a decline in most of the sub-indices.
Page 24 of 29
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $370 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,
down about $15 per ton from a month ago and down about $80 per ton from a year ago.
Researchers from the Thailand Development Research (TDRI) have recommended to the
government to set up a 'Rice Market Development Institute' to enhance rice related research,
disseminate credible information to farmers, millers and traders, encourage small and medium
operators to export their stocks, as well as increase export competitiveness of Thai rice,
according to local sources.
The Thai Commerce Ministry plans to auction over 660,000 tons of stockpiled rice on August
11. The government expects it to draw high interest.
Page 25 of 29
Drought and water shortages in 22 provinces in Central Thailand have damaged about 1.5
million rai (around 240,000 hectares) of main rice crop, which is about 19% of 8 million rai
planted.
The USDA Post forecasts Thailands 2015 rice exports to decline about 18% from 2014 to 9
million tons, due to stiff competition with Vietnam and India and expected limited exportable
supplies.
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $345 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week
ago, down about $5 per ton from month ago and down about $120 per ton from a year ago.
Vietnams rice exports increased in June 2015 after declining sharply in May 2015. Exports to
Asian, African, and American destinations increased while exports to Europe declined in June.
India
India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $390 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up
about $5 per ton from a month ago, and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.
Declining global prices have severely impacted India's rice export earnings in the last couple of
months despite a significant and steady increase in the volume of exports. The decline is
understood to be very pronounced in case of basmati rice exports, according to the data from the
Agricultural and Processed Food Products Exports Development Authority (APEDA).
Total area planting to India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop (June -December) stood at around
27.8 million hectares as of August 07, 2015, up about 4.5% from around 22.6 million hectares
planted during the same time last year, according to a press release by the Agriculture Ministry.
The USDA Post forecasts Indias MY 2014-15 (October-September) rice exports will reach a
record 11.7 million tons due to stable prices and strong export demand.
The government plans to involve private players in the rice procurement process for the 2015-16
kharif marketing season (October-September) in some states in order to address inadequate
storage facilities.
Heavy rains in the eastern states have damaged several hectares of paddy fields, raising concerns
of lower production and higher prices.
The government has announced that it will allow the export of rice bran oil in bulk.
Page 26 of 29
The USDA Post estimates Bangladeshs MY 2015-16 rice imports will decline sharply due to
high domestic supplies and the 10% duty on rice imports imposed this year.
Planting for Sri Lankas 2015 secondary (yala) rice crop has reached a record 497,552 hectares.
Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $345 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a
week ago, down about $35 per ton from a month ago and down about $105 per ton from a year
ago.
Agricultural experts in Pakistan are optimistic that timely and adequate monsoon rains will
reduce rice production costs, stabilizing prices in the country.
Central & South America
Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down
about $50 per ton from a month ago and down about $165 per ton from a year ago.
Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $540 per ton,
unchanged from a week ago, down about $25 per ton from a month ago, and down about $80 per
ton from a year ago. The USDA Post estimates Argentinas MY 2014-15 (April 2015-March
2016) rice exports will be about 450,000 tons, down about 3% from last year and down about
24% from USDAs official estimates. The decline is attributed to low production and stiff
competition.
The USDA Post says that Venezuela is facing high production costs and foreign exchange
shortages which threaten not only the Venezuelan rice sector but food security in the country too.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $475 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about
$20 per ton from a month ago and down about $80 per ton from a year ago.
Analysts say the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks, which ended indecisively last week, may
be pushed back until 2017 if it does not get ratified by the U.S. Congress this year. The U.S.,
Canada, Japan, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and
Vietnam are involved in TPP talks.
Other Markets
Page 27 of 29
The government of Indonesia plans to increase 2015 paddy rice output by about 7% from 2014
to 75.2 million tons, despite concerns of a drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern which is
likely to affect rice production in the country. Meanwhile, the government of Indonesia may
consider rice imports in 2015 due to delayed harvests and minimum domestic procurement
levels.
The USDA Post forecasts Australias MY 2015-16 rice exports may decline sharply due to low
production.
Myanmar will suspend rice exports until September 15 as part of its efforts to avoid price hikes
during floods.
Farmers in Italy will adopt sustainable rice growing methods in efforts to overcome high
temperatures and water problems.
South Koreas state-run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation has purchased 11,000 tons of
non-glutinous brewers milled rice of Vietnamese origin at around $384.40 per ton for delivery by
November 15.
Kuwait will provide a $13.6 million loan to Chad to help support rice production in the country.
The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) has released two cold-tolerant rice varieties in
Madagascar under its Stress-tolerant Rice for Africa and South Asia (STRASA) program. The
program will be overseen by Madagascar's national rice program FOFIFA and carried out by
the Africa Rice Center (AfriceRice) through its Africa-wide Rice Breeding Task Force.
Declining global prices have severely impacted India's rice export earnings in the last couple of
months despite a significant and steady increase in the volume of exports, Financial Express
quoted the Commerce Ministry officials. The decline is very pronounced in case of basmati rice
exports, according to the data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Exports
Development Authority (APEDA).
Page 28 of 29
The APEDA data shows that the earnings from basmati rice
exports stood at around Rs.6,780 crore (around $1 billion)
during the first three months of FY 2015-16 (April - March),
down about 19% from around Rs.8,370 crore (around $1.3
billion) during the same period last year. However, in tonnage
terms, India's basmati rice exports increased about 15% y/y to
around 1.1 million tons during the three-month
period.According to a ministry official, average export price of
basmati rice has declined to around $1,050 per ton during the three-month period from around
$1,295
per
ton
last
year.
The APEDA data shows that earnings from non-basmati rice exports stood at around Rs.3,864
crore (around $606 million) during the first three months of FY 2015-16 , up about 6% from
around Rs.3,645 crore (around $571 million) during the same period last year.
India's total rice exports declined about 12% y/y to around Rs.10,644 crore (around $1.7 billion)
in April-June this year while the tonnage increased about 8% y/y to around 2.7 million tons.
Vietnam 5% broken
340-350
India 5% broken
385-395
Pakistan 5% broken
340-350
Myanmar 5% broken
405-415
Cambodia 5% broken
425-435
Uruguay 5% broken
535-545
Argentina 5% broken
530-540
Page 29 of 29
Thailand 25% broken
350-360
325-335
310-320
350-360
445-455
375-385
415-425
555-565
545-555
Vietnam Jasmine
485-495
NQ
Thailand A1 Super
320-320