Probability Distributions
Probability Distributions
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#ADDIN?
James W. Richardson
2004
Demonstrate the simulation functions in Simetar. Press F9 key to generate different realizations of the random variables.
The probability distributions are in the same order as in the User's Manual.
3.1 Generate Random Numbers Using the Uniform Distribution
Minimum
10.0
Maximum
20.0
Unifrom Standard Deviate U(0,1)
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Random No.
Formula
Specific Formula using actual numbers
Uniform (10,20)
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General Formula using cell references
Uniform
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General Formula using cell references and USD
Uniform w/ USD
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Formula
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Random No.
Formula
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Random No.
Formula
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3.2.4 Generate Random Numbers Using the Modified Two-Piece Normal Distribution
Min
2
Middle
8
Max
10
Uniform Standard Deviate
#ADDIN?
Lower SD
2
Upper SD
2
Random Value Formula
2 Piece Normal distribution
2 Piece Normal
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3.2.8 Generate Random Numbers Using the Log Normal (Excel) Distribution
Mean
0.000
Std Dev
1.000
Uniform Standard Deviate
#ADDIN?
Random Nos. Formulas
Log Normal with cell references and USD
Log Normal
#ADDIN? Err:511
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#ADDIN?
Gamma
Formulas
demoSimetar-Sim.xls
Page 2
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D
PERT
PERT
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Formulas
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Price
0
0.038462
0.115385
0.192308
0.269231
0.346154
0.423077
0.500000
0.576923
0.653846
0.730769
0.807692
0.884615
1.5030
1.5031
1.9440
2.0112
2.0743
2.2647
2.2847
2.3649
2.3749
2.4551
2.5052
2.5453
2.7156
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0.961538
1
C
3.2467
3.2468
Empirical 3
EMP Norm Tail
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3.7.4 Generate Random Numbers Using the Kernel Density Estimator Distribution
Unsorted Data Range
1.500 Bandwidth
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1.940 Kernel Estimator
0 "0" indicated Gaussian
2.540 USD
#ADDIN?
2.360 Max Iterations
1000
2.280 Precision
0.00001
2.370
2.070
Random Nos. Formulas
2.500
Kernel Density E
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2.260
3.240
2.710
2.450
2.507
Formulas
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Bootstrap Simulation with a Matrix of Observations: Preserve the values across the row.
Random Nos.
X1
X2
X3
X1
X2
1.0
23.4
4.5 Bootstrap
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4.0
56.7
3.3 Bootstrap
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8.0
12.9
6.9 Bootstrap
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9.0
6.4
2.3 Bootstrap
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5.0
55.5
1.5 Bootstrap
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Formula
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X3
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Prod 2
-8.980
Prod 3
-43.833
-190.314
demoSimetar-Sim.xls
Page 4
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400.000
244.734
225.000
Assumed Means
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100.0
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200.0
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250.0
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25.0
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190.0
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260.0
-9.523
-12.938
9.000
-183.525
-63.369
39.829
625.000
-246.381
-304.910
63.377
425.693
1296.000
Prod 3
-0.5286511553
-0.3421955718
-0.5646478961
0.5868265688
0.4729917474
1
Use CSND as an Array Function and let Simetar generate its own Independent SNDs
Vector of CSNDs Formulas used for the CSND random numbers
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Second step in a Multivariate Normal Distribution is to use the CSNDs with Means and Standard Deviations
Variable
Mean
Std Dev
CSND Random Value Formulas used for the random numbers
Price 1
100.0
10
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Price 2
200.0
20
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Price 3
250.0
15
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Prod 1
25.0
3
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Prod 2
190.0
25
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Prod 3
260.0
36
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Prod 1
1.370
1.700
2.270
2.100
2.120
2.251
1.873
2.310
2.128
3.190
2.340
2.200
1.815
Prod 2
119.375
119.844
84.613
116.165
118.503
108.581
131.480
100.705
138.608
113.453
127.051
127.043
133.300
Prod 3
34.428
37.674
34.070
32.748
39.498
34.333
39.305
38.213
37.575
35.812
36.314
39.740
43.265
67.744
69.396
63.779
55.428
63.077
59.256
72.616
59.912
72.805
55.614
67.471
69.546
66.469
Prod 1
Prod 2
Prod 3
-0.2993458442 -0.1753334709
-0.5286511553
-0.1587216966 -0.3670505748
-0.3421955718
-0.2875080178
-0.16898345
-0.5646478961
1 0.5310527664
0.5868265688
0
1
0.4729917474
0
0
1
Use CUSD as an Array Function and let Simetar generate its own Indep. SNDs
CUSDs
Price 1
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Price 2
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Price 3
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Prod 1
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Prod 2
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Prod 3
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Second step is to use the vector of CUSDs to simulate Multivariate Empirical random variables.
F(x) probabilities
Sorted Deviates as a Percent of the Means
Price 1
Price 2
Price 3
Prod 1
Prod 2
Prod 3
0.0000
-0.3549
-0.2654
-0.3563
-0.2852
-0.1185
0.0385
-0.3549
-0.2654
-0.3563
-0.2851
-0.1185
0.1154
-0.1656
-0.2199
-0.2012
-0.1492
-0.0829
0.1923
-0.1368
-0.2091
-0.1470
-0.0826
-0.0759
0.2692
-0.1097
-0.2077
-0.1199
-0.0415
-0.0733
0.3462
-0.0280
-0.0893
-0.0133
-0.0186
-0.0361
0.4231
-0.0194
-0.0165
-0.0039
0.0012
-0.0226
0.5000
0.0150
-0.0104
-0.0001
0.0085
0.0114
0.5769
0.0193
0.0260
0.0337
0.0125
0.0141
0.6538
0.0537
0.0473
0.0577
0.0733
0.0286
0.7308
0.0752
0.1292
0.0666
0.0734
0.0579
0.8077
0.0924
0.1292
0.0854
0.1108
0.0631
0.8846
0.1655
0.3053
0.0995
0.1262
0.0697
0.9615
0.3935
0.3812
0.4989
0.1710
0.1645
1.0000
0.3935
0.3812
0.4989
0.1711
0.1646
-0.1454
-0.1453
-0.1425
-0.0863
-0.0762
-0.0274
-0.0166
0.0249
0.0403
0.0446
0.0700
0.0723
0.1197
0.1226
0.1226
Means
Trans CSNDs
Random Values
2.325
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3.294
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2.128
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118.363
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37.152
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SND Array
#ADDIN?
#ADDIN?
#ADDIN?
10.00
-9.00
49.00
25
Correlated
Random VariableRandom Numbers Formulas
MVStudent t 1
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MVStudent t 2
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MVStudent t 3
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Formulas
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Formulas
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Uncorr CUSDs
demoSimetar-Sim.xls
Page 6
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Price 1
Price 2
Price 3
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E
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demoSimetar-Sim.xls
Page 7