Nilesh Shah Presentation

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 57

How to Make

Money ?

April 2015

Its all about Money


Money Is Not Everything In
Life, Money Doesnt Matter.
Make Sure That You Have
Made Enough Money Before
Making Such Statement.
--Warren Buffet

India or Abroad ?

India

India
200%

0%

176%

Infosys

Software

69%

76%

Microsoft

IBM

10 years

India
600%

Automobiles
516%

400%
200%
30%
0%

Maruti

Honda

10 years

89%
Toyota

Debt or Equity ?

Equity
780

800

400
193
0

1.87

4.55

47

48

16 years

62

Trade or Invest ?

Trading ?
Sell
Sell

Buy

Sell

Buy

Sell

Buy

Sell

Buy

Sell

Buy

Sell

Buy
Buy

Buy

Buy

Trading ?
Buy the market is red hot
Stock market is for gamblers
Buy more when the prices are down
See I was right to buy at low
What happened ?
What happened ?

Cut the loss

Time to short more

See I was right to sell, let me short also


It will fall further,
stock market is for bears only

Trading Is Injurious to Your


Financial Health

Invest

Maruti to Mercedes Benz


6 times in 6 years

Invest

Economy to Luxury
From place to palace in 14 years

Invest

Paint a house or buy one?


Century in 22 years

Invest

Dreams in a decade
Nirvana in 10 years

Invest

114 times 90 times

66 times

22 times 19 times

15 years

Invest what you consumed

Why Do I Lose Money In


Indian Equity Markets ?

You Work Hard to do it


7.5 times in 16 years
42 times in 26 years

236 times in 36 years

Price to Book Value - SENSEX

Perfect timing to lose money

I Am Worried About
Negative Returns in
Equities

Buy Good Companies


and Give Time

R
G
A
C
%
46

- 33 % Drop

- 50 % Drop
- 74 % Drop

I Am Worried About The


Corrections In Market

Infosys 70 % Down

Where Is The Correction ?

Hero Honda 35 % Down

Where is the Correction ?

I am worried about
Prices going down even
temporarily?

Correction is an
Opportunity
100 25 %

100

80 100 %
- 90 %
40 100 %

10

20 100 %
900 %

Time on Pitch

29,437

15,921

What if I dont invest in equity ?

That was in 1998 up 30,000 times in 41 years


&
Today the value would stand at $1.4 Billion
Source : Forbes Oct 1998 issue

But There is only one


Warren Buffet

Times of India July 14, 2011


US citizen moves court seeking release of his shares
MUMBAI: A US citizen has moved the Bombay high court for direction to the
Custodian of Enemy Property to release 120 shares along with bonus shares and
accrued dividend of Western India Vegetable Products Ltd ( WIPRO), saying its no
more enemy property. Additional solicitor general Darius Khambata told the court
that the shares are worth Rs 750 crore today.
A division bench of Justice P B Majmudar and Justice Mridula Bhatkar on
Wednesday was hearing a petition filed by Abubaker Cochinwala, a Texas resident,
stating that at the time of vesting, they were in his name by a declaration of gift
deed by his father in 1951 and being US citizen the shares could not be enemy
property. His advocate Rajiv Narula argued that the property (shares ) is vested
with the custodian only for management purposes in a "fiduciary capacity".
Khambata said Cochinwalla has a stepmother and 10 other siblings, some based
in Pakistan and others in the US, and there may be conflicting claims if the shares
are surrendered to him. Observing that prima facie the high court cannot go into
these issues, the judges adjourned the matter asking Cochinwala to state if he was
willing to file a substantive civil suit in appropriate court to get his title adjudicated.

It happens in Fund also

It happens in Fund also


Kotak 50* (Div) Performance (%) as on 31st March, 2015

Scheme Inception date is 29/12/1998. Fund Managed by Mr. Harish Krishnan..^Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.*All payouts during
the period have been reinvested in the units of the scheme at the then prevailing NAV. Returns <= 1 year: Absolute; Returns > 1 year: CAGR (Compounded
Annualised Growth Rate). N.A stands for data not available. Note: Point to Point (PTP) Returns in INR shows the value of 10,000/- investment made at
inception. Source: ICRA MFI Explorer. # Name of Scheme Benchmark. ## Name of Additional Benchmark.

It happens in Fund also


Kotak Gilt Investment*Performance (%) as on 31st March, 2015

Scheme Inception date is 29/12/1998. Fund Managed by Mr Abhishek Bisen & Mr Deepak Agrawal.^Past performance may or may not be sustained in
future. *All payouts during the period have been reinvested in the units of the scheme at the then prevailing NAV. Returns <= 1 year: Absolute; Returns > 1
year: CAGR (Compounded Annualised Growth Rate). N.A stands for data not available. Note: Point to Point (PTP) Returns in INR shows the value of
10,000/- investment made at inception. Source: ICRA MFI Explorer. Classification of schemes in short term & long term is based on the average maturity of
the scheme. # Name of Scheme Benchmark. ## Name of Additional Benchmark. Please refer the slides after Thank you for top 3 and bottom 3 schemes
managed by Mr. Abhishek Bisen & Mr. Deepak Agrawal.

Why dont I invest in Real


Estate or Gold only ?

Dont put all eggs in


one Basket
Real Estate

Dubai has witnessed the boom and doom

Back in India, real estate is still considered a


profitable asset

Price: Rs 600 per sq foot in 70s to Rs 125,000


per sq. foot in 2015

208 times up in 45 Years

Exclude Maintenance and Repair Charges

CAGR is approx. 12.56 %

REAL ESTATE

01-Jan-70

-600

30-Jan-15

125000

12.56%
Source: Internal Research Calculations

SENSEX
01-Jan-80

-118.76

30-Jan-15 29182.95

16.97%

GOLD PRICE CHART

FROM
01-01-1970
01-01-1980
01-01-1990
01-01-2000
01-01-2010

TO
31-12-1979
31-12-1989
31-12-1999
31-12-2009
30-01-2015

26 PLUS
YEAR
62 % FALL IN
PRICES
Data Source: Bloomberg

RETUR
N P.A %
30.73%
-3.27%
-3.21%
14.27%
3.14 %

-32%

I always made
money in Real
Estate.

Making Money
Long Term Investment
No Trading
Adequate Research and
Due Diligence
Judicious use of
Leverage
This are all Key to make
money on any asset
class.

Regular Investment
Balanced Investment
Long Term Investment

Facts about Sensex


Sensex has given a compounded return of
15.03 % return From Jan 1,91 To Jan 30,2015
There are only 21 days when Sensex has hit a
Six ( More than 6 % daily Return )
There are only 90 days when Sensex has hit a
Four ( More than 4 % Daily Return )
If you had not invested for Just 53 days out of
total period of 5812 days your return from
Sensex will become NIL.
TIME IN THE MARKET IS MORE IMPORTANT
THAN TIMING THE MARKET
Internal calculation of S&P BSE SENSEX from 1/1/91 to 30/1/15

If you are expert why cant you


promise 24 % p.a return ?

Risk and Return go


together
Original Investment
Target Amount

1,000,000
50,000,000,000,000

Returns Compounded @

Years to Reach There

10%

186

12%

156

15%

127

18%

107

24%

82

36%

58

That is the Worlds Market Cap


Source: Internal Research Calculations

Price Vs. Value


SELL MORE

EXPENSIVE

SELL
MORE
SELL

FAIR VALUE

BUY

CHEAP

BUY
MORE

BUY MORE

Summary
Asset Allocation

Regular Investment
Short term Pain vs. Long term
Gain
Equity : Buy on Dips and Do SIPs
Gold : Invest Through Gold ETF
Fixed Income : Grab Duration
Real Estate: Consult the expert

Joshua Bell Experience

Disclaimer

This Document is strictly confidential and is meant for private circulation only. This document represents the views of Kotak Mahindra Management Co. Ltd. and must not be taken as the basis for an investment
decision. This document does not constitute advice to buy/sell any scheme of Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund. Neither Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund, Kotak Mahindra Trustee Company Limited nor Kotak Mahindra
Asset Management Company Limited, its Directors or associates shall be liable for any damages including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from the use of the information contained herein. No
representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained herein. The AMC reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this
statement as may be required from time to time. The document is solely for the understanding of intended recipients only. Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risk. Please read scheme related
documents carefully. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

You might also like