THE FIRST

GLOBAL
> REVOLUTION
A REPORT BY THE COUNCIL OF THE CLUB OF ROME
I

ALEXANDER KINGC
BERTRAND SCHNEIDER [

G^Jpyl;y^1T0d n>3k:iirJi
 THE FIRST
GLOBAL
REVOLUTION
A Report by the Council of the Club of Rome

ALEXANDER KING
BERTRAND SCHNEIDER

Orient Longman
 Contents

T^V^kAtil^minhHi xUI
1

Part r. TTic ProbJcmatique

!. AWhldwtndofChuiBC 7
2, Sonw Arta^ of AcuK Concern J2
1, The InwmaDonai Mlsnuiugcmcni of the World Economy 50
4. [ntJiTutJons of Solidarity «l
5. The VKuum 6S
6. The Humdn Malai&c 76

The Challenge

Pan n. The Resolutiquc

[nffoductton H
7. The Three [mmedlaci« tS
&. Governance and the Capacity to Govern IM
9, Agents of the EteajlutiqiKr 1»1
ID. Modvdtlons and Values le
Lcainrng oui Way into a New Era 1J4
A Call For Solidarity.

lndci Itf

Copyrighted material
Ah k)vel Could lh«j and wl* I lite conspire,
roBraspihlssorry BctKHK of things enUre,
would ftQt wfl ihiaw iX fo biti and iPih1(
rerrculd EI filacer to the fiean'? desJrs?

Edward ftoGeraM
Ttv Ratoiyst ofOrmr Khjyyim
 Foreword

196$ wjn the ytit of the Gicat Divide, [t m^rkrd Eh? zcnldi u well a the end
of the long post war pcfiod of rapid economic growth In the Indu^rallwd
counmes. Bui n wis also a ycir of social unresl. wi^h the eruption of smdent
uprising in many counnies and other manifestations of dlirnanon and
Gaunter cultunl protest. En addition. IT was at that time that general and voul
pubhcawuenessof the problems of the enviionment began lo emcrger

A number of individuals dose to decisionmaking points becafnc

concerned jboui die appaieni mc^pabiliiy of govemmencs dnd die
IntesmtKmaJ OTganlations of foreseeing, or even aoemptlng eo Ebrc$ee, cbc
consequences of SLibs-tannal material grow^ withoi^t sufficient thought as to
the quality aspects cj the lite that unprcccdcmcd general afflueiKc should
make possible it was fell ihat a group of tndependeni ihmkers fonteriwd
with the long lermandde^^r issues would be useful m complementing the
woikof^die bigger organlTadcins.

The Club of Rome tookshape that year from ihcse«msTderattons, and was
touodedby AurelioPecceL and Alexander King at the Academ La del LmceiJn
Rome. It chose as its Inidal dicme. 'The Pcedkamenr of Mankind '

Autdio
Peccel wu Its first president, a post be retained nil his deadi In 19S4. At

pre&ent, the group comprises one hundred independent individuals from

fiftf The Club ha absolutely no polttlcaL ambttkm. Its
diree countiles.
mcmbcts teprcsenr a wide dlverBlcyrf cuWes, Ideulogle*, iHcJcHlons a«l
dhcipline^p and 3ie united Inicommonconceni for [he fuiuK of humuilcy.
From die outset, the Club s ihinklog has been governed by three related
conceptual guidelines:

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd irrateriaal

viii • Fortwoni

—adopting a gTobs! approach lo the vast and compler prob^tmsof j worfd,

in which inrcrdcpcndcncc beiwccn wtiom wiihin a single pbncury

— focussing on pfJldcsandopdonsinalongcrtcrni pecspcfilvc than

issues,

Is possible (or govemmenb, which respond to the Immediaic concctni of

an IftwfBdeflcly Irtiormed consOtiiency;
— &ecktng i deeper undeisondlng of the Lni:er^c[ions 4itbln ihe tangle of
contcmporajy problems - pollticj], economic, soda], culoiial,
psychological, redinologicil and environmental - for whkdi die Club of
Rome adopted ihe lerm 'ihe vjocid piablcmaTique',
The woild problcmjiiquc become, a^ n were, die [radcmark of the
hjs
Club. We define It as die missive and unOdy mil of InietteJaied d|^ii]Ue5
and ptoblems That fotm the predicament In which humanity ftnds toelf. For

our present purposes we have coined a OTtrespoi>dlng icnn, the world

resoludque', whjch connotes a coherent, onnpreftenslve and simuluneom
atock to tcwlvc as tinny a possible of the t^ivtTK clfmrnts of the
pfoblcmadquc, 01 at lean to point out ways to ^oJutEcms and more effective
snaiegles. By 'the rewlmkjiic' , we do not mggest a grand attack on the loialicy

of the probleniacfque- Cue pnjpoat te rather a simultaneous a ruck on iu mam

elements with, Ineverycase, taiefukonsiderattonof reciptocal impact from
each of the others. Jn a woild in which pioblem- solving mitucive& ate
tncreasingly immobilized by buteauciades, there is a growing role for flexibic
2nd Itifbrmal groups mch as the Club of Etomc.
Oui first puhlflcailDn, Tfa Lhttib Sa Cnuri. appeared In 1OT2 3^ i rcpoit to
(radier than i^) the Club of Rome. The study, commissioned by the Club, wa&
accomplished by an imematlon^l icam of professors and researchers at MlT
u^g the system dynamics methodoiogy erf jay Fottcsta, This was a

ploneeting atlempi to pioiect m interaction a number of quandflable

cicmcntsof the probletnatiquc. The icpon and the toEEravcrsy rt gcEemed
in^mediately gav« the Club of Rome wotldwjdc visibility or, ts $omc would
jav, notoriety. It cheicby achieved Its main objective: thesnmulatlonofagreat
debate on growth and sodety tluougbout the world and an in^ieased
awareness of the InreracQom thac ake place between the elements of the
fffoblematique. The report has sold some ten million copies in over dUrty
languages and has had consldeiable political impact. The Club was widely
oidclzed foi what was ^en as advocacy of a zero growth economy. This was
neverounntenDon. We fully accepted the pte^smg needfoi m^tetjal groitth
in the poor countries of the world, but warned readeis about the
consequences of an unthinking pursuit of growih by the indusolaJlzed
countries, depletion of the world resource base, deterioration of the

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

 Fotrwrd • ix

environment, and ihe domtnation cJ mawrtsl valun 3n society.

Since 1972, die Club hds published eighteen reports on 3 wide varieiy of

loues (sec Kb^iogTjf^y), The second dmangthcBCrM4>iibiiiJtUiruTirpnj"gP0liit

by prokuon Festel and Mcsan>vlc, wasi compULntsed grawih model which
jlso look teglcnu] slcaabcms ItKo Accoum, It included jsLrongwarnrng of the
high costs in terms of money and human sufTeTing whtch would r«ul! from
delays In laklng acdon.
Two decided bter. the contempoiaty pIobTr^tnattque icirulns die ame in
JtsundetlyirLgcaus?^ as ttiat of 1971» but diHcis In ICE mix of Issues and tis pointy
otcznphasls^ Humanity will ^dways hive to live with the problems of Its tJme,
no matter how cffccOvc the i«oluc<iuc h^s bcai in the psst Changing
jrtuadons.nowblylhoicanimghamlhrioluuonofpistprobicmipgivcrisclo
new/ difficulties which, a? always. Interact, furthermore, in Gnvs of rapkd
change such as the pieseni, the mix of problems ^ the understanding of
theij relative importance is llkdy to change rapidly. This is p^rdy because
some of QUI pcrccp<k)ns have become clearer ^nd partly because new
knowledge has Identified new dangerSr Of course, the two most domtnanc
elements are probably those of the population explosion In the South and of
die onlyiecendy recognized mxioeffcctsofman on his cnvironn:Knc, which
were exicdy the two central pteoccugatiun^ in Tfif Umili Nj CmiiA, Bui new
factors, such as changes in human behavioui, the emergence of secmlngJy
Irrational movements Including tcnorlsm, and the giowdi of Individual tnd
collective selfishness, thrown up by our materialistic society, have definitely
become elements of today's ptoblerrjcigue. Such matters jtc obviously
when considering the present situation.
relevant
The human being both creates die problcmatEque and suffers ii3

consequenccs^ The problemaiique therefore demands a systematic anal^ls

ihar pays due attention not only to what is regarded as rational bchavtour but ,

dUo to JnniiKdvc and apparcndy InadonaL elements Itibcrcnc in human

nattire that rnake for an uncertain world.
If the Club IS to live up to Its tole, it Is cssenitial diat were examine the
problemaoq-ue, attempt to elucidate more clearly some of Its interacdons, and
Issue wamlE^gs abotil the consequences and trends determined by the
persistence of present economic systems and hunun bch^vjour. With the
possible exception of the nuclear threat, the present dangers to hum^ity are
probably greater and mote Imminent than those in 1972. We shall, no doubt,
be accused ^ before nf being hjrbinge r^ of doom . This may well be out lolc
and our glory. However,piophesyingdoomisby no means our sole or even
main Lniention. It is but a necessary prelude to taking action so as Co avoid the
doom confronting the earth's inhabitants. T& Uib^B fc Gnm'rfi was never

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

intended w 3 p^o^hrxy. but aather u
wanring of what might haf^^o if
3

poildes were noc changed ^In order lo prove its eiTiapohGom wroi^J A
pre uencvc afi^oach SMdti a this oirjcs with & ihc rcspoHlbllilf of puEdng
[onvaid suggested recnedlcs.

Ricardo Did HochleitncT

Prcs^dcnin CJub ol Roint
 Wo generation has ever llkFdl»propr»T^le«f of air those who polnr
out [he conseqjerces of bad judvement and lack of Fomlghl.

Th? Club of RorT« ^^n ake prld« li Th? fia rhii It hj; te?n iinpocHjUr
Ax thtf bsT iwmiv yevSv tat» K will mndnme For m^ny yf^n to
i

COCK ro spell oui The unpafaubk fans md to ununle ^he ^Diisdence

ol the siTUi dud Uie tfttheOc.
Prince- PhiriPnDuke of Edlnbureh
Meiisgp so the dek^^tes at site
Tweniifth Amtvcrsary Confereine of the OubofRome,

Wf uhriiJJ (i|iia% [|£c b I^n^ Pjulci^ Bijnk. ^ch^rd Carty nd Alexander

Pckham /it rAnr^AdrpupT'^arMlirndfnfr^^nrifcaunifF, Soyo Graham ^Stiurt. Nicok
Ro&cnsohnflii^Mdrin^lTTquidJ /«UTOF£n[runfi,dmf,niggrtrJo>fiffrrdirriiiig™ppffrt«
i»n « Kabicnnt Eoii[on far far unm^q^ ^l)ni« dunn^ the cmpontion of Uia W.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd irrateriaal

 Abbreviations

ASEAN AssociiEion of South Easi AsiJUk NaOons

CFC chlorofluoroarbotiE
CGIAR ComulQUvc Croup of Instituus of Agiiculiuial Et?&carch
FAO Food and Agriculture OrgMiiation \of UN)
HT Foundation lor Incec nation jI Tnlnlng
GATT Cencial Agreement o^ TarifB and Trade
HIV humin immuno deBckcncy vtrus

llASA Iniernailanal Insticuie hi Applied Sysr^nif Analysis

ILO Inlf rnalianal Labour Org^niz^Cion

IMF InKinadOOal Moucury Fund

IPT Irt^tnadonil Pumeiship [Diliaave
Mil MasachuKtu Institute of Technobgy
NGO non-governmenlil organiatkm
MJC iKwIy lEtdusQlallzcd cuuntiy

ODA oflldal developmcni did

C^CD OrganlTatkin tor &ici»omlc CoopcraGon and Developmoit

START SitjEpgic Anns Reduction Tilks
lINijrAD Uniicd Hstlons Conference on Tr^de ^nd Development
UNDP United Nations Devcbpmcm Programme
UNEP Unlied NaUoru EnvtiunmenuJ Rrcigc^mnv
Unc&CD United Nations Educationa]. andCultunI OrganLsatum
ScienlifK:

Unkcf United Naiiora {[nKmauonalf Children's (Emergency) Fund?.

Unldo Uriltcd N^aons Indusaul Dcv^lopnnfni Orgjnizadon
WHO World Hcjlrh Organization

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

 THE WHEEL OF HUMANKIND
'ices
Agnculiure
iT-idusiFfes

GLOBAL
ecONOwig GROWTH
Materitfa hiew Technologies

VALUES GOVERNMEhfT
RELIGIONS ANDTHECAPACrrV
TO GOVE RN

Lumlng
Systems MassMei]ja

GLOBAL FOOD
SECURrTY

Wdr^r availability

ENVIRONMENT

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 Introduction

Hum dukiEtd xzim ui be gripped by i fm it sak ^lu^udc of unt<::akiiy n ihc

ihmhoidaf die nrw century, but the end of a inlllcDlum presents ^n even
mote complex ^itudtioit w)ih its wide^nd and iipjd ch^ngn. ^nd the
uncetialnry thit these changci brEngwkh them.
Tbe icspjt of recent Club of Rome meetlngj has been "The Grcal
Ttamldon'^ i«e ire convinced thdi we ue in die cjriy stages of the iormdUon
of J new type of world vxiery which niH be at different from codaf'ip]»w«
thai ushered in by the Industrial Revolution ftom the HXiCTy of dK kmg

jgfjitarkpcriCHJduipEccdcdii Theimual but by no means d^ only mou»

force of this change has beer die emergence of a c]uster of advanced
technologies, espeajlly those made possible by mkroelfcnonks and the new
discoivcrlcs of moJccuLi bkilogy. These ^re creating what \s vjrioiisly caLLrd

die infoEZiutlon sodeiy. the posrlndusUlaJsodeiy, or d>e service sodeiy. In

whJchcmpl[jymfntJlicayTttJndprD5pccD.nia[ctlaland other wise, Will be
very different ftom those of today for every humaa being.
We only need [o mention as examples of change the populadon e^rploslon
in the Southern countriei. the probabiltly of great chjnges and distisrlunce in

world climate, the prccariotH nature of global food secutny, doubts on energy
aviildbiliiy dfl-d ihc v^^i thang;^ caking p\Kz m the geop^Jiu^dl ^Jtudugn -aJl
of which Interact within the complex of the pioblcmatlquc. We aie
convinced thattfie magnitude of these changes amount to a major revolution
on i worldwide fcale.

low and 1900 were year? when the course of hiitory suddenly speeded up:
communist regimes In eastern Europe collapsed. East and Wcsi Germuiy
became a single nanonjgain, the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in iWO provoked

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

2 • T/x first Ghhitl E^mlutien

3 dttdly CrialJ Ia ih* Gulf. Though these were by no m-eaiis the only evenu d
the periodH cbey ivcre b^ fai Ihc most specocular. jnd despite their
geographic dl^^ts^H the^ were tDlaconncctcd, the end of the cold war and
of East- West censloii blew the lid off (he world pte^urc cooker, as ii were,
and enabled latent conflicts [o emerge tn the open and long- repressed
isplnbons to c:iprr» ihcmselves Forcf tiilly.
In ihc comlr^ ycs}. li Is very llkel? rhar ocbct cwcno will come to the
fotcFront of world acccnrkm, while today's events will be pushed Inio the
background. This book was wtlCicn bcfoic the collapse of the Soviei Union,
and the creatton In Its place of a loose confederation oiindcpcndenc republics.
The dun^Q ^11 Qkmg place ihcic do noE ilccr whit follows- Indeed, die?
confirm our statement, made In euly 1991 , thjc die Gulf Wat Is the first

example oS a series of phenomena that will jnost cenalnly affect the world

profoundly In die coming decadn.

The Gulf Wit was In many ways i warning signal atid should lead to a new
vision of IntemaiiDna] tebOons. [[cofifitmed the exIsCCDce of tension, which
grow between the rich counnles and the poor coudtila,
will continue to
bcTween die Non^ and the Souths while the Injusnice and humiTi^Elon ic
bPMds is found ^petully JTid Incrrastngly imb«rabTe by (he Arab MasTlm
countrteSr The war has also- been a demonstranon of anew anempt by die
United States to reasserc itf hcgccnonji: pcc^n^rc In a number c^reglc^s of the
world, whfle puidng its force at the service of right and legalism. The
ambLgiiity of American policy, despite the faci that Jt hdS often shown proof of
goodw[ll. IS not going to make die intcmadoc^ rclaOom of the United ^ics
any easier in future,

Thcendofthecold warhas led [ the awakening of nadoia]Jsm,th^t had

been sdfled under die lid of East- West tension, and wdl incvttably produce

conflicts must be stressed that the process of

of varying degrees. However, it

disarmament that was undertaken between cbc United States and the Soviet
Union tsa positive element- but nocsuffldendy so. Dtsarmameni in high-risk
zones aiyj a strict control by the United Nadons of the sales of sophisticated

arms have to be a priority if wc e:i^eci to ^veni otbct conftont^uoins 3^ ,

bloody and paradoxical as thoK in die Gulf War.

Will the budding democrfcy in Benin, as ihai in the £asi European and Latin
American connrrles grow strong and spread, or will Its failure to do so lead
back to audioritarlan governments"' Wfll regimes tliat seem to be firmly
fsabliihcd rod^y be able to stand up lo the pressure of population, the
majoiny of the members of which are under twenty years of age and
demznding a roof, a pb and the means to survive? No one knows.
There ISh however, one indisputable fact: die world ecoiiomic

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 Introduaion • 3

dlscrepiDciu, thr flagrant incquallda. (be existence of eKirrme pcTvcrty

sldc'byakk with great *«lth. cause all sofO of wniions and conflicis,

sbowii^ up bete uid there in the mo5t diverse gcog[a[>hic Tonc^ These arc
the $fgn9 that mark this Arst global TCVolutKtri and th?^ indiczEe Lhe
uncertainty with which the hiturcof the pbnct a confronied.
But why do we regard the canccmparary threais and thmgci a the firs
global revolution'The change fcom the hufitrng and gatbermg [Jiase to one of
wtiled farming miy have taken thouands of ycais to spread throughout the
world. The Jndustilal Revolution that bcgjn in the United Kjngdom about
twa centuries ago Ls as yet geographically incompleter However, the present
biutil i^hzngcs arc ti]i;ing ptacc cvftywhftc §imul[ancously from causes
which are likewise ubiquLio-us, thus c^usmg the Sturm und Drang' of a

universal revolution. The worldwide signilicjnce ol this revolution becomes

vastly greater If one considers diat Its misman^emcnc could cndaogei the
whole human race-

The new society i^ emetging from the chrysalis of the ofTcn aicfulc jnd
decadent old societies: Its evolution Is complex and unceruin ^d its

manlfesiatJons are diEficuit to decipher, making die task^ of the dedskm

makers in both publk and private sectors more ditticuk than ever, and
inducing a permanenF gncenalntj In all d^inkrng individuals. Elcmentj or
tran&jtional facets oE the new society ire appearing here and there without
obvious lje& btiween them.
The global tevolutkm has no Ideological basEs, It Is bdng shaped by an
urprcfedented ml laurc of geostta regie upheavals caused by social, economic.
technologic j1, cultural and ethic j] factots Com bination? of these factors lead
to unpredictable situations, in this tran^jtronal peclod. humanity is therefore
EaciEig J double challenge - way towards an undecstanding
having to grope its
of the new world With Iti many hidden been and also, amidst the mistf t>f

unceruinty. to l«m "bo* to manage the new world and not be managed by
It. Our aim must be esientiatly normative -to visualize die sort of world we

woidd bke to live tn, to evaluate the maralal, human and moral resources
available, to make out vlskm realistic and sustainable, and then 10 mot^llie the
human energy and pollucal will to fbige the new globai society.
[n mattcri of public ajn^erji, aim other areas of human IntcrcsLbshtcns
prevail. Yesterday the nudcai problem wsi uppermost tn people's minds:
later the population cxploskHi reached die headlines; today the environment
Is a b mode and coocem with population has receded. The eneigy crisis was
seldom menuoned publicly carbcT, but the event! tn the Middle East have
already made dils the new preoccupabcm. Ihc ztccd Is to consider all these
as essenual angles of illuminaCLon in the kaleidoscope of plar:etary change^

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

4 • The First Clotmi ReFoiwum

[n thlstanftlc of change itis- important as never bdorctolook beyond (he

pressing issues of the momeni lo ihe [orfcs bf yond tbr horizon. Forfliasting is
necessary, tad will nccnsdrlly beaieL^Eive I^iluir. Simple cKiiapolailon of
existing Trends will not gkve us rcilistJc answcis, Ttit Umlb ft Giwtf' tud
developed an Interactive simulabon model thai produced a variety of
^cnirlos which wrre fspfclally meM for definjng what wis to be
prevented- In some- fields such k tedmolo^ and industry, long-ietm
foreca^ng j& Indispensable and efioit± In that dliection are being made b;
some of the most forward looking cotporations, which are snuggling ro
Invent new methodologies fo« planning In uoceitalnty.

Inthethinin, dw American president Frinltfin D. Iftxiw^eft

coinmisstonedhlaadmintstrailDri m urtdprukea vast »udy oFth?
tomrnf ledinolr>gle5. When The study wu ptibll^ied made a v^ry
El big
lmprts:Skin. Indeed, It was enrtirallinB- There ivas iusi one problern: It

hadnoipmlictKl t^e earning or televFs1on,rKXl'iato'pJasiK, or |ei

l^lan^, or OJ-gan LranspJa;its, or Easf r beams, not even of baJI-pOinli

pensP
Franz-Ollvier Gnes&ert'

One aspect of the OHiteinporary situation Is an Increasing awareness chat

the human race, Ir pUrSUK of mWCllal gain by ihe expMOtlon of natUTCj Is

racing towards ihe desmiclton of the planet and lOeli. The thiejt of nuclear
descrucQon, although less imminent, is always -with us, and the possibility of

itteverSibledlmabcChange with only djmly foreseeable consequences 15 an

Imminent menace. Such mgredlenis of the present problemanqtie are glotal
in character and cannot be tackled by even the largest powers In Isolation,

Only if all the Inhabltatm of the planet realize that they are hdng Immediate
and common dangers, can a uniTcrul political will be generated for untied
;rcthDn to secure die survival cJhumuiiiy. This Is why wc all fbt die crniion
of world solidarity.
The term hs been greatly misused and seriously devalued. Its
'solidarity'

application to circumstances in whith motivationj for common belief oi action

were too weak, have gjven a ^mewhat ucopian jnd insubsundjl
li

tgnnoodgn. fnihc pre^cm cicum&t^nce&j however, the exicDt of danger to

the future well being of ^11 the inhabiunts of the planet gives such enhartced
force to the riecessltf for solldarltyn that unity atui stability must plainly be
generated.

I. Tba wa Ihc m Kqun Lo dv Club ai Sldidc ^Mcjdoitfi ci ll 1V12}.

1 CWiben, 1990.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 IntmiaKtiim • 5

Wc have volunardy presented a slmpllfio! version oF thlngi; msny of d>c

phenomena mcntkmed herein would have to be analysed boih more deeply
and more subtly. This would requite numerom and welfjhtv volumes
Out opticm wis diHeieni. Oui wish was btlcEly - even if supcrEdally and
Incompletely - [o hy out elemcna thac may alrexly be known in order to
show how they interact and through thetrertunglciticnt. To ^Eare our OUdook
on the present woild problemaOque as clearly aspossrt^. We do not Intend
to dtaw up a blueprint of conaete actions for the salvjcion of the wo^r
NeuettheLess. OUI analysis of the sltuau-on encourages lu to make a number of
piacflcalpioponh, tosuggcst possible lines of action jnd to IndfciK necessary
changes It^ anttude.
Never before has humanity possessed, a It docs today, the knowledge vkI
the skills, the resources and the cohesion to shape a better world. Th!s^»uld
generate hope In all people. Tet there Is widespread uneasiness and fear of
Impending changes which In implngng on the sQll Incomplete changes of
recent decades will add lo die unccruinty. This very uncertainty, togcthcc
with the removal of the traditional tesdctloos of the past and the new hopes
for the future provides an enormous Impetus for reshaping the wotid sodetyr
The tragedy of the human condLtion \i that we have not yet reached a position

to realize our potential. We see the world md its resources being gio«sLy
mismanaged, yet we are lulled by the complacency of our leaders and our
own Inertia and resistance to change. Time is tunning out. Some problems
have already reached a magnitude which Is beyond the point of successful
eoncrol and the costs of delay are monstrously high. Unlesi we wake up jnd
act quickly It could be too late.

This book. Is organized in two parts. The first deals with the ptobLemanque
and purports to present the main changes of the last two deE:ades to describe
,

the malaise which they have caused and to oudme some of the rmnt Imporaant
issues md dangers which humanity has to lace unitedly. The second pin
describes the resoluilque and anempt^ to preseiit a numbei of actions which,
at this stage, seem specially necessary to pursue. Flrully we return to the
need to generate world solidarity,
r& FiBl GfaW Rflwiudw Is written for all.thowwho have the spark of the
cKpJofcr, the discovctCL the tisk oker-tbclcanKr, Ihncarcthepcopie
we shall have to count on to face the appalling Isai-es described herein, to ser
the goals and try to leadi thcnn and to Lear ii fiom their laiiuf C»and successes,
to go on trying - learning.

Finally, It is addressed to those who ait concerned with die future of the
planer and of humankind, and hc^>es to sharpen thetr cotKem. This book may
also help to awaken concern tn otheis. Above al Mt is addressed to the young.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

6 • The First Global RfPoiMtitm

so they may assess more coherently the slatf al the world which they hjvc
inherited from eirlier geneiAtion^, md may be inspired to work for the
confiiLKiiioEt of d new and ^u^raiiublc wcicty. capable of provkflng etjiulJi^

and modest ptospccicy foi iheir children and gK^ncrjoon^ to come-

Thli li ihe spin! in which we ofEer these ideas dnd proposals foi action, for

lejming our wjy into the future.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 Parti

The Probhmatiqm

1. A Whirhvind of Change

iPnurT^, \9m: 71 ^taj old \an PaJLak ^ tatn^ OH fin tS Wnur^ ^tftUTt In

Piigiie lupmrfil a^ml tht anapaiiar\ tf Cuditsiteaiia ^SoUcI Unfa.

Dttmia. im: imiai vntii V^^ HiMd k tktid Proiieil ff Iftr Rt^l^k of

Scp^mMr, 7975: iauaacif in Cfiik ti mc^ am^ ij a ^bodi^ m^tfirjj avf [10.000
itai M til TMwlk, fO.Ono arrnltd and ibi.COO fantd int» tnk).

DetnbcT. 1939: ?M iicimttaliC fJalion niuf Se^bet. }970 put an oid lo tHi

iniUlaitr rt^hht in Cblr.

rh( nxds of (he coming global rcvolu[ion have been gciminattng $loi#ly

ova many yurs, during which ramplfviLy and unf trtJlniy In condtUorts and
[^Id dunge uc beginning lo ovowtwlm lb? apacity of govemniRili jII
over the woild. Indeed, govetnmenc rfcver like change. Wedded lo the
su tus quo, iheyteaci to &ympCDm& of change, but seldonnio the caiu« which
tend to he icgatded witb smplcion is possibly being 'subversive' in ruiure.
One of the [TKAt obvious ispcos oFhumdn Fnlliy Is loo much concentration on
die kmmedlaie, wldi too llnlc caie foi fucuie ODn&cquenc^ — m Insbtenceon
immediate giaUhcailon. Thi& applies lo tnstiCuUom a£ well a to people
Covernmei^D operating under the lyianny of the next elecifon Ebcus on che
present Issues md avoid more distant but, frequcndy, more fundamental
r^aneis. CorporaQons, likewise* bow to the tyranny oE next year's bottom
line, aldiough both govemment^ and enterprises do try to look beyond chc
next electkin or annual repott in much of what they do.

The Club of Rome was founded in the year IW when the economic
gcowthmanLa was attts height. Soon after the publication ofiis firK report, T^

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 .

8 • The Fim Gicbcd RiPidutnn

hmt U Cwo\k in 1*72. ihc world wa^ hit by [htf Oil tt\%\%. Thij had many
"

repercu&jons on JEs economy dnd sodety l[ had a strong Impact on the wcirld ;

investment pttcm and caused many policy modifications as. for example. In
the iititudc oF the Ujilted Sates to the The crisis was a dear Middle East,

warning to lb? industrialized countries about the dependence oF tbeii

cconoTTiicsijn the secure supply olraw rndLCEl^l^ and energy, which in lurt^
was tandls) dependenton events tn distant places which are largely beyond
tbeli control

in Todii/s worid uponenHaMr is only in mathemdlio

dii curves art
tFur nponenriai curves ^jnm to infinity. In rui \\h they either Ixcak
downnt^Birophicdliyorihey uturareirentiy. iris our duly j&ihmkme
people ta ^Trlvt cowjrd^ J genlle ^turanon jithoiigh this pose& Fiew
AT\i very dllTkiuIl quesuons.
Dennis ilabori

The oil cusis brought home to mosi oF the oil-irnportkng developuig

CDuntilcs the e:ttent of their reliance on cheap Fuels, with hdrdiy any local
energy alternative; it also led these countirles into ejicesstve ejitemal
indebtedness. [;oc»t:nuch[afo^:dcvciopfnir tic, but lopiy [he Oil bill. This
alsis ind other faaois have led to a considerable lowering oF economic
growth rates fiom the high levels of die previous decades- Howevern
achievement oF economic growth sQll remains thf main fxplicic [;oa] of
economic policy, with too little considention of diFFerenEial needs and quality
aspects. How far the published growth Figures reFlect real increase Ln huitian
welEire is open to question.

for example, an econoriy grows dt a\ annual rate

If, 5%, it would, d
by the end oT the nvxt century, rvach a level of 500 times greater [or
50,000% hlglier] (han [he oirreri 1^^.
EdiHTdl^steP

Much oF what is counted as growth Xi probably not growth at alL For

example, in the United States oF President Re jgan, growth Figures conceaJed
overconsumption and public underinvestment. de[eriorat>on of the
InFraslruccure. decay oF the inner cities, and social de^adition. Noils there
any evidence that growth in the North leads in time to developfnent in the

South ^

1. M«dowi, vtu.
? HdIkI Prljr- wirnci. lEivcnwi of hologriphy ^Cabor. 14?A|
S Foimet Minifier oE Culcuie, Soencc and Tcchnolcigy Lower SticnVr brmcE d
membeioE [ht Eyecntivc Commiticr of the Club of Etome ^fWtelr JW),

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 A WhiriwMdofajan^ • 9

In 106S, few could luvc fote&ccn chc furtdamcnial pollQcal chatigcs vk have
iccrnily witnessed. A^re^d^ the polldc^domiridncie of the two superpowers
wifr beginning la d'^indlc, bui ibc cold wdi not ' only lukd E^-Wc5i
reUtJon^H U also defined die whole InterrutJoiul system, torn ipart by
Ideological poljrization. The recent events In USSR and Eastern Europe have
The collipse of
therefore shaken not only the regkin. but thr whole planet
economic communism and tJie disintegration of the Wdjsaw Pki bloc of
natioiu has aioused gtm hope? -ind is Invested wictj great dan^rs. The
sicuatkin ii cxnemeJy flutd, has few constialncs, and the consolidation of
present trends offtts great qtpomjnidrs for [Kr strufturlng^nd renewal of a
much widci icglon- and posdhly d dw world system j& i whole.
History Is unlikely to provide another opportunity open and promtslngas
as

today's, and it ts essential forhumanitytofinddicwudom to exploit It. This

unfceeilng of die geopolitical ngidittcs of the last forty-five years Is one, but
only one of thp elements shaping the global revolution. Entangled with many
other forces of changes IE has made the future jhapc of the world still more
uncertain.
Throughout the period since 1968 the world has lived under the shadow of
the nuclear bomb. Howcvcn^tth East and West willing to put an end to the
cold war, a r«w climate Is now dawning in knremadonal affalts despite the
selbacksrecordedat ihebe^nnlngot 1991. Although nuclear annlhltatlOEi rko
longer seems mmlnen[, [hethreachds cedamly not been banished; Indeed ii
I

jmy exist as long as the planet is pcc^lcd by humans. Great vigilance is

es&eniiAL not only wiih re^fd to the intciitioA) and beh^vbur of die present
nuclear powers, hut also to curtail nuclear pnollfcratton and to ensure chat
small nations now developing nuclear devices are persuaded or prevented
from using them In IcMzal wars agaliutneighbounng stsces. This requires a new
strategy on a global scale, quite dl^renc fiom the bipolar appioach of the cold
war period. Humanity will have to be forever on guard ^galnsi the rise of
Insane leaders with great charisma, capable of hypnc^zing whole nations, and
willing to destroy the world rather than go down m defeat. Such was the cjse
in lanuary. 1991, wjdi the Gulf War, Who can foretell &k medium - to
long — term coruequcrKes of the war on tf^ environment as well as on the
geopolidcal balincc in die Middle Eisi?
IJcsptte present dlfftculcies and contradictions, there is still hope for

continued progress In disarmament negotiations concerning conventional

armsand chemical and bidoglcal weapons. Wars on the world scale must be
avoided^ the powerand sophistication of modern weapons make winning out
of the questton and the high cost of their development and man ufaaurc is a

permanent burden. Inhibiting eo:momlc and social development Local wais

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10 • The Fmt Ghhd RiFolutum

ui likely Coowari tie som^ measure of overall global hannony a

to occur unni
oiaUhbcd^ to thr period imdei leview. some fifty such wjts have idgcd dnd
there has been a cmsiderable buildup erf aims Inlhe less developed ojuntrks.
10 the detriment of their economic development.
The economies of the Indusmalized nations benefit gready tiom the sale of
itm%. The buiineis li highly ^mp«iuve and rantributes gr?ady to Inaeasmg
the threat of WIT. Furthermore, the irms ti^c can easily boomciang and hit

iheiutionssuppLylngtheaEms.ashdsbecnthe casein the Fatkhnd^W Gulf

wars. The linei. In particular, has hLg>ilighrcd the need to control ibe arms
Industry, both that operated by the governments themwJvcs and that
Operated by private connatiors, in the [nteresc of humanicy as a whok.
H must be emphasized here that peace is not merely the absence of wat.
^d that even without war conQici^ will oontinuc and will change in

character; examples ate trade wars, tocdttarian regimes and economic

colonialism- inequitable distribudon of resources is certainly one of the
stronger and mo5i in&idiou^ triggcis oE conllia.
Exiemlve disarmament— achieved oi planned — should set hec human
and material resouiccs, that can be used for mote positive putposes, such as in
restructuring the econonules of eastern Eun^pen providing more iz^vcsdneni In
Africa and Latm America,and miking possible envltonmcntjl renewal. The
process of disarmament, however, brings Its own problems. For some
cotinlT'les.particularLy the Soviet Union, the process is diRicult on account of
the need to lehou^ large numbers of discharged soldiers and to absoibdvm

in a precarious and changing economy. As foi TcdJsttlbutlon of the turns

saved, these can all ! become unidentitaabLe within the finances of the
e^ily
national treasury, or indirecdy tome under the control of narrow vested
interests.

E^tmoHiK charge
Great changes have also taken place on the- economic front and will be
analysed in more detail in Chapter J. After the period of rapid growth,
rctcssion set Jn SimultWCOUSly with the oil crisis. During die last two decadei
the economic centre of gravity has mo vcd towards the Pacific region . with the
amazing success of the Japnese industrial economy, |apan now accounts for

aboullSper ccniof the world's total tinarKdal activity, tlowever, this iS i^^
talking rapidly with the decline In the Tokyo stock market and falling real

estate prices. Japan has not yet learned how to enerdse its strength, even if it

has contributed funds to assist debtors in alleviating their burden under the
Biady plan. Its political moves are cautious and tentative and, as yet. It Is mi as
effective internadonally a& Et ^uld be.
One of the outstanding facts of these recent years has been the progressive

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

convcnion ro a marker rconomy. whlciisccnn m be the common famre in
mosl countrtfs of Ihc woild Open compcouon, jomeiimcs bruul, on bodi
the Inicinaumal aai Lbc dauqiuI h^c I^ *Xfnv\£vx4 not gnJy polidat
leaders, but also consomcrsH vtxas. and the community at lugt that the
vitjStty of It tE Tneplact^ble- Private busine^^ rs consideiMJ lo b« Its itutor,

picfil to be necfssjtv Eor invKtmenr and the Einjncidl AUikCl to be the

inevtuble meeting pornt between savings and investmentr
The elfccdvencss of the zzurkei as a soclai insdtutJon foi harnessing
productive eneigies lud meetliig human needs Is [xm unli/ersally

acknowledged. But matkci mechanisms alone camxjt cope with global

problems thai requite a (ong teim strategic ap^oach or Involve disttlbudonal
Issues. They caniKJL by thcimelves solve problems related to eiiei|;y,

envlronmcn<H fundameniaJ research, o: t^rncs, Ody public Intervention,

based on political processn and often using market me<:hanisms as

InstiumenQ of pubbc policy, can deal with thew problems.

Maikct forces on have dargciou^ ^ide effects bcause rbcy arc not

founded on geneial interest Iniern^nonal fiiuncial speculation li a

particularly eloquent example of the excesses caused by market forces, of

people gripped by the madneu of profit under iay clicumsiances.

Spcculabon has bctoirie agame that Is unconnected w!ih economic realities; it
has escaped from the h^nds of men to be run byaBnputer ^tware arid has
leacbcd new djmen&jons and velocity thanks to the Information society.
Some efforts - still modest, for the task Is tremerrdous — are leading a first

attack ofi the undcrgtound trifBcktrig of goods thn^ugh Its fknancial

manifesrailons: the nxiney bundcrlng for diug traffic or unauiSortied arms
sales, for iniiance, is beOig discovered by breaking the seal of secrecy on
nun:^bered bank accounis. HopefullyH such effbrts will liKrease and lead to
true Intemadonal cooperation.
We also can:»[ Igpotc gccu^tcgk: chingc. The world is cuticndy
witnessing the emeigeiKe of three gigantic trading and Industiial economic
groups. The North American matket. In which Canada has taw joined the
United Slates, and which Mexko 'a expected to ^in, will inevitably continue
to be an IndusQlal and post-lrxlusulal group of great power. However, lis

immediate future is clouded by the Immense dc^tlt which, dmdzlnglyp (he

tlnlicd States has allowed Itself to accumulate In recent ycais.
The development of the European Community, despite the years of
hcsltitkon, is now gdining momentum, ds its members see tangible economic
ind political advantages In ccwperstion and devise new mechanisms for its

operations. As 1W3 approac^KS, bringing the completion of economic

integration closet, the Community has begun discussions on poLtical unity.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

12 • ThcFmtGhAaiRn'aimim

become csp«ially urgent wlih dw reunification of East and W«i

This has
Gcimany, A European CommuiULy embiacjng [he whole of the Western
Europe and later [olncd by its Eastern neighbours - whose tiansformed
economics should make this possible - would constitute i secor^ bloc of
great strength. Despite present conFusion, i[ la possible that the European
rfpublte of Ehc Soviet Union will eventually follow the same toad, thus
unifying Europe 'horn the Atlantic to the Uial Mountains', as expressed by
Charles de Gaulle In I960.'

The thjid bloc consjsts of [apan and the ASEAN' countrfts, iiKludit^ foe
exAHipieThdlland.lndonesiaor Malaysia, which are growing lapit^iy Perhaps
Au&Hdiii jtkI tJcw 2c3\3tk\. which have sitong trading links with the other
Pacific councnes, may later find themselves in this grouping- Even at thl^catly
stage of development, die existence of these three blcri3 signifies an utterly
different world pattern of trade and industry.
These new blocs are not restrlcuve. on the whole, to other trading

coujiirics. although ihcy do have cerium non aiiH bariicrs and djsguiscd
proiectkon. There is much tiade between the groups. In any event, what
should be emphasized Js that diere has been 3 very rapid dcvclopmeni of
technology and an increase in the spee^i of its application whkh has modified
the relative strength of the different trade groups, especially diat of die
japan /ASEAN group.
This prospect has caused great concern m theother regions of the world,
Laljn America, close to the United States, but wjch a different ctho», is

pariiculjily perplexed. While initiatives fnDm lis neighbour in the north are
on the horizon, lE is also stretching out towards Europe, with Spdin playing a
special role through its membership in the European Economic Community
and other European multilateral agencies and councils. The St>viet Union, in

disjrriy. Is not yet in a position to deal with this situation China, jficr the
brutal events of IW* remains an cnigmai while impoverished Africa hardly
appears on the wocld economic map.
The South Asian region, dominated hy the huge geogrjphlcal 2nd
deiEtographic bulk of India, has made some progress, but it ts sdll uncertain
whether It will be able to make the sort of economic breakthro^h that has
occurred m 5Duth East Asia. Here, population control Is the key.
Great care will have to be taken in forging the links between the evolving
econom Ic blocs and the countries still outside. Some are already superclliously

I Ln a Ifjcvijjor inlcrvirw during hiivisil co Patu in iWt. Mjkhjil Gotiachey qinxed th\i

sutemenl bv dr GiuJJr whoi leEcnmg to Europe

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd irraterlaal

 .

A WhtrivindofChat^ » 13

referring Eo [he latter u ihc 'rtsidujlcounlries'. As these Include rni!nl of [1m

poorer couniries, (he new ctonomif panem necessiom j fundamcriQUy
<ilffcient approach to the problem of ovet^ll developmenr. Including i
conceptual ^wuch from aid loparmerahlp. The Gulf crtsia may be a fbrciaitc of
many conElicis to come, nai necessarily only In the fonn of North-South
tonFronQDon, bui rtlatrd io r«ouices which weII Include eneigy and food
avdtlabllity, population pressures, and ethnic uid religious animosities, [n a
pluraljstjc world with marty cultural, ethnic and religious differences,

acceptance oF od^ers Is essei^Eial ind Alll have to be manifested In both word

and deed, k has to be appieclatcd that the Western raOonallsi view of wjorld
problems [^difficult for many countries to accep[ and may a[ Qmcj be wrong.
Indeed, the position ln[raq in 1»1 represents a reiection of Western values,
largely supported by the Arab Muslim public opinion
Conflicts In a world domiiuied by huge trade blocs are likely to be uery
different from those of today's world of nation slates. Wirs between
counoitt wjthin a bloc or bccwccti blocs arc more llkcl? lo be economic than
military The role of the transnational corporations will probably become
Increasingly important, since their activities and concerns would permeate lU
die blocs.

The IntmUpmdtna iffnattoHS

A further feature of die get^litical scene Is a belated recogn[iion of die
essentially global nature of nnany contemporary problems, which cannot be
solved or even approached realistically by individual countries In Isolation,

This has long been Ehe casein the economic field. One has only to remember
how quickl y die effects of the Wall Sirce[ aash in 1929 spread [o causca world
depression during the thirties, and how mass unemployment tends to appear
simultaneously In many countries. This global nature ot problems is no doubt
the inevitable consequence of the great expansion of world trade which this

century has witnessed. Morerecendy. global problen^soFa different nature

have anser These langc from environmental Issues to Law of die Sea'
negouanons and iniernanonal Rnarue. Recognition of this new situation^
awareness of which came very slowly. If Illustrated by the mushrooming of
inicrg^vcrn mental Conferences and those of specialized professional and,
sclenufic organliatlons during ouz peiiod of review, [t is doubcful if present
Jniernauonal snuciutes are sufficiently equipped to deal with this new
situation. The United NaDons and its specialized agencies, which wtxt
founded in the posi-war euphoria, were designed io meet the needs of a
much simpler world siiuanoin ^nd arr increasingly inappropriate for Eoday's
needs The present Icss-lhan [deal circumstances provide an oppotruniiy as

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd maleriaal

14 • TheFmiGUMBjviflurwH

well ai pgml io the impcrdbvc need lor rCalni^^turlng the Uiilud NlUOm
syncm, rcalloating the Funcckms of die various dgrncm and p:og[dmme3,
and providing 3 new fociu. Currail dlfEiculrio In rewtullzlng Unsco sbo*
hew ditticuk [hii will be. We ihould tUo urdeiLlne the ttKreasln^y
imparonl roic Jitd gieatei rffectiveness of nacionj] jnd inlern^tionjl tJCOs
(z>DngovcnimenQl org^niz^uon^] m venous Eiflds,

Concern about (he gJob^ enviionment i& giving tIicio a numbeioFdAK

enqujrips at diFEf rent leveh, InclLiding rhjt of Heads of Govemmeni. As jrx

such attempts are skitung ihf Etind^menul !55(im Tt Is hoped chjl cominon
andujilvcr^^hction eo comb^E&uchglobal problems will surmounEintei bloc
ilvaliy.

This lejds on to the coruLdciauon of [he remaikable JiiocaKe in the

Inicrdcpcndenccotiutkiru which our period has seen. The ilfc of economic
communities, [he need for a common approach lo global iaue&. the In^mense
expansion of Inrematkmal communications, and (be activities of the
transnational corpontkin( are V^me c^ thc COnttlbutory ^^rs. In addition,

thespreadof technology andLtsKrvicesthioughout the world, the need for

common standards, codes of agceed practice, dlnributfcm of radio

wivelfflgths and a thousand othet technkral a^temtna fepreiJifiF [f\ ^!t
totality, a spreading web of inlerdependence andaJf/tic^ erosion of national
sovereignty, which govemmena hav<: noL yet fully realized.

The a^x of wvere^^nty h^s become mankind's rTU>3r rrilBton. Els God

Arnold Toynbeei

The very concepi of sovereignty procbimcd as sacrosana by al] govern-

ments has been challenged, and only partly because crfihe development of

regional communitto. indeed, many smaller countries already have very

llnle control over their own a&Jrs because of decisions taken oucdde cbdr
lerrltoTles, such as the establtshment of commodity prica or Interest rates, ra
du« to by economic policies modlfi-ed co IMF funding. £rosian of
obtam
sovereignty may be a posldvf move towards the new global system fot most

counirles, In which the nation state will, In all piobabibiy, havedimjnishjng

slgnlfkancf . En the case of most of the subSahatan countries of Africa,
however, the malciienancc and even the rclnforcemeni of sovereignty is

ejsertdal Ia the present circumstances. Theie coutnrles ize intri[)Sically

].Binnhhi3iotLijiU»tt-l«79^
2. LnlFnudorul Monrlzc)' Fund

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 A WhtrivindofChan^ • 15

artifidaL dcilvcd through the process of dccokmfjation from the arbitnry

CJivIng up of die ojnTinent by the forsncr tioloiiLal povfcti-

Elete II Is nercuar^ to distinguish bcLwecn i nukm and i ituc. The A^<jn

itatc may tonslsioia number of tribes whshaie. In follcy, nations. A country
such as Chad Is politically a sale, but Is not likdyioever become a nation. The
situatbn ij conipbcaud by the bd thit imponanr n^nor rr\bcs nay be
futthdi
distributed between several slates. Recognition of the sovereignty of such
states may ihetcforc be necessary to encourage coherence uid common
idendly, bui It should lead to regionaE organization. In Litin America the
notion of uveidgnty Is sdU strc^glv defended as i t^rliiicjl defence against
the gTMipoxi^K.
A new concept has emerged a icon^quenceaf artificially cteated states
widi nation peoples dispersed imong differenc sates: 'ihe right to InlcrFere

(for humanitarian reasons! ^'"'s recently put Into practice on a French

mjtiitive, and soon after with United Nations' blcsslngSn by Fiance, the United
Kingdom and \hc United Statn. Ii consisted of a humanitarian oper^uon in

IraqInfavouEof the Kurdish people. Such a concept. If It were lobe accepted

In [he fuEurr, would TepreEent a considerable evoluttan In international law.
which for once would be nxire a reflection of humanliatlan considerations
than of constitutional rules arkd nationalist self -centredness.

Tbt mvitkeniti^ of minorities and naiiimatism

This biing^ u& to appaieni patadox in world poEltical trends, On the one
hand there is a tendency to create larger units, » in the case of die economic
communities. Also, the resolution of the global problems demands action on
a global scale. On the other hjnd.thfc^Lwwjdtspreid pub] If di^likf of what
is seen as excessive centralization. I'he dominance oE large, faceless

bureaucracies which appear to disregard the needs of individuals and of local

communities Is generally resented. The sitiutton Is particularly acute where
such dominance Impinges on the idendiy of ethnic minorities, and In an
cvci incrcaungnumbctof pt^c^ edinl-c groups aic bccommg vocaJ ^nd a^tve
In their demands for autonomy or independence, in Europe, for exaznple. the
Catalans and the Scots are asserting their nationhood, while the Irish, Basq ues
and Corsicans have resorted Eo violence. Yugoslavia, which is an uneasy
federation of republics with different historical tradlnons and ethnic mixes,
threatens to disintegrate.
China, too, has great eduiic diversity, but pejhaps die most remaikableof
all Is the situation In the Soviet Union, the most fTthniCjIlyhetaogenous of all

fedciMom. where the arrival of ^aoM and pcraJmlu htvt led to ^parjast
movements among a do^en or more republics, in America we are wrmessing

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

16 • The Fim Ghb^ Brptduam

the coUccEivc awak«ilrg of Amertcan who now hive recouTse to

FtxIi^ih

dcUon. Hiipanic and other iiniepiesealed minorities who havt bthcrlo aim
bcoi powctlcs^r now hive the mems lo oke aokm.
These two appMttilly opposed trends are. In rcaiicy, compadblc. The
amflln irises from the difficulty of reconciling ihem within the exilsting

politif^l iysrem which i( tigldly bl$(^ On the A»dcl of the nation s(jLe. What
Is needed IS a rctorrnuUllon of the apptoprtiie Levels of dedjlon making so as
to bring the poln& ot declslon-maklt^ as near as possible to those who en|oy
or suffer thdr comcqucnces^ Thcte appears to be a common human need Eor
ethnic id? n[iiy. whose [00t& lie deeply buileci In die past at the human lace.

^ppnrs to be a wldesEoead leDdenc^smciiig peopk. cum in

Egualiyn ihcie
ethn^ly homf^meociK communities, to be IdenCi^d with the affairs,
prosperity tad environment of dielT' community His su^ested that a greater
number of polnii of dedsion-maklng are ncces^y ungjng from the atilcdy ,

local to die international. Thtscould use the load on ccnaal governments and

help to humanise the jyitcm.

Urban jpvwih
Urban growth ha^ been a piomlnent feature of the modem en and Is Lkely
to continue as njch Accoc^Iing , United Nati^ms enf mutes, ^iproiimacelydO
per cent of the world population will be iMng in townj at the ™d of die
ccnturv»ind there willbcabomthlrtycttlesjndieworld with more than five

million Inhabitants, with the largest, Mexico City, having 24-26 million

Irkhablt^nts. While this Isa worldwide phenomenon, II: 1^ particularly in^rked

Ie3 the dcvdof^ng countries where ciues have mushioomed both due to a high
birth rjte in the dtjes themselves atkd an Influx of peasants who have left the
lind to exchange rural foe urban poverty. Et Is Interesting co note that in

London, the first city to have a populatron of one more

miillion inhabiLUitSn

p&iple died chan wac born until ii*, incrcwc coming essentially from rural
eiTiigration. hi the dcvelc^ing countries todayn we see a reverse trend with
Internal growdi being die main factor of increase. This Indicates bow gready
xanlQiion and health have Improved, despite the very difficult living

conditions of the urban poor.

Managcmeni of die mammoth dtte, such as Mexico, Sao Paulo. Lagcs,

Cairo or CalcutQ, is exiiemcly difEiculc, cijHrci^lly stnce a large proportion of
the urban dwellers arc QnaEEiCL^I', livjnginfjvelasorshantjiowns, with little

or no sanitation and more or less, outside the control of the authorities.

Provlston of water, health services, ediKatfonn employment, urban

tnnjpOttaUOfrh imJ conmil of pollution arc some of ihe components of the

complex of urban problems about which there ti no previous e>:penen<:e on

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

ihc present scale
All over ih< developing regions, paCCcmsof scniemem. and conscquenily
Lifesiyles, 2ie duagij:ig rjpidJy, ind tiirly brgr dbn ue springing up, oFtcn
consisting imMj of a tgnv/i oF shantytownsn completely lacking any
adequaie economic huti. En the Sabe] legion of Afdc^n tot Insrance, towns
such as NauakchorF, Bamsto and Ouagadougou, until t«rt:nrly quiet
admlnlsttailve cenaes, have become vast urban slums with ptobably as many
as a million Inhjbitanu each, and with all the exp](stve econoniEc and
psychologkcal tensions that luch slums inevlubly suffei From, The new
patterns of »en3cnicr>i and excessively rapid urban cKpanslon arf partly the

tcsiilijl&o of high taifsoF population growihinfberec«nipist.

Througbauc the peiiod under review, great efForis have been made to
speed up liic devc-lopmcnt of the poorer countries, thtough massive
programmes oF aid, both bilateral and multilateral, caplsl and technical, A
somewhar opCtmlJtkc assessment of some aspects of these etforts was nude by
Mahbub Ul liaq>:

Average life eupcciancy haj increased by slxiecn years, adult literacy by «J

per cent, per capita nuirttional levels by over 20 per cent uid cbild

mortality rates have been halved during this period. In fact, developing
countries have achieved in the last thirty yeais the kind oF real human
pnDgreH that IT took Industrial counrtltt nearly a centuiy to accomplish,
while the Income gap between North and South is still very large - with
the average income In (he South being 6 per cent of (hat In the North- the
human gaps have been closing Fast: average life expectancy in the Soud) Is
by now gOpcrcenioFtheNordKtn average level, adiih literacy 66 per cen[
and nutritional level 8^ per cent It Is true that ibc past rccoid oF the
developing world is uneven, as between various regions and countries,
and even within CQunmes, lllsalsotruedut there is still a large unfinished

agenda oF human development— with one-fourth oF the people m

developing countries sdll deprived oF bask human needs, a minimum
inwmc level and dccon wclil scivi«s. But ibc ovcnll policy cokIujIwi Js
that die development process docs work, thar International development
nude a ^gnlflcant differerKe. and that
cooperation has the Eemalning
agenda oF human development should be manageable In the I^QQs iF

development pnormes are properly' chosen.

1 Spedil AdvksoTiolINDf AdmlnmiiDr^pcisordlconimuiilcatiDrk. 1V90

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

18 • The Fmt Gkhai Rrmiuam

Nevertheless, results have been artCVCrt afld often disappointing. Hunger,

TnaLnurrldcqi. dlscMe ukI poveny id] iSUcti large pioportion of humanity
and jre aggravated by the popuUtion explocion, droughts and mmy Local

wars The purchase of aims by many of the pootct couniiles from the
induitrialized nationi nor only icprcscni^ a huge economic burden, but also

encourages miliarism The jrms trade, in cffoa, produces i considcrible

flow of wcaidi from the poof lo die rich coontrla. A numbei oJ leading
developing tountries have al$o bulk up jn increasingly impMjnant acms
Irxlustiyn partly for e^tpon puipeiaei.
Sclendtlc and technaFogical advances rn the Industrialized countries tend to
Increase the rconomii: dj^uiic^ k^vccn ih? rich jnd the pooi counalesand
from undertakjng technological jnnavacloni. Thus the
lo Inhibn th-c latter
poor countrla. lacking Industrial, tedinologtcail and scientific structures ^nd
tiajned managerial capacity, have been uiable to assimilate much of the
technology jnd know how available to diem. Technology Qinsfer was
assumed to be the obvious method of IntroducUig new processes and new
Industries Inio the les^ developed countries, but It has often failed —
sometimei is a rcniLi of selecting lEUpproprrttc processes or unsuitable
industries and Eometlmps, with d« transfer of state of the 3rr refhnolagy,
bectiuse of insufficieri i pieparaDon and absence of managemcni, maintenance
and mjikering skills Jn die receji'ing counuy Ofien new tec^ologies have
been introduced far import subsi][utiijn which have noi achieved the hi^
iiandards which are necessarv lo ensure Inlernauonal compctitlvenesSr
Too much impatQncc has been given lo laige saie and umcumes
dtamadc schemes, for example the building of large dams to ptovtde
hydroelecQk power and make possible extensive InlgaElonfaclllQes^ All too
often the dam rescrvoln have sjtted up and the irrigation water has become
salincH while there hu been lltdccompiicmcaiai]' industrkil development and
no nual ekcujfication netwocks n convey dK powct ro consumcis, Al», In
die <icsign of suth schemes, loo lltde atKniltffi h as been given to social factors,

Indudlrig the dispbtementof large populations, the loss, of ktb of fertile soil
flooded in the reservtilr arei, and the spread of bllhareUsIs via the in^gadon
chaniKEs. PartJculaily In A^ica, the fragmcntauon of the conttnem into too
many small and economically unviable countries, each possessing markets

which are loo small, has limited the value ^ large scale projects.

In agriculEure, the Green Revolution has registered iionsidei^ble success,

with the Introduction of new and high yielding vanedesof wheiE, malieand
rice and die intensive useofnttrogenou^ternliTersespeciallyin India and other
Asian countries and In Mexico where the new btm technology was applied,
Thii has enabled India to n>ove rapklly ftom a food defkn sicuaikn to a

Auleursrechtelijit besciiermd materiaal

 A WhirtwindofChmngt • 19

sliuaHon of nuiglnil surplus, but hcic agiin diere hav« been unforturute
sodal corscqucDca. The system favours ihc medium and ]»rgc sale iaimei
uid hjs thus Ifd to thr di^bccmenc of pemcn fumcrs and the m^don
Erom runl ams to die ddes. The energy Intensive nature of Ciccn
Revoludon Agiiculture may also cause Rnandal dlfftoildes for f^iTncis j^ d\
ptJMf coiutrtue tQ t\it.

[n odier paiu of che world and, once agakn espedaUy in many African
countries and in Latin An^iica, InsiifRclcni attention has b«n paid to

agricultural development, Fzequeni droughts, growing numbers of human

being; 3Tid dFii ma h, jndlonaTwajsor InEenidlconflKt&havcledtothceiosion
of the resource bj?e jnd margin jlizcd large numbm of the runl poor. This
again has deprived many people ol then land 3nd caused the rapid growth of
ihecldcsJtIs In urban areu that disconiem and insurrection flare up so easily
and hence govemnients have yielded to the temptadc«i of acccffding priority

to the allocadon of scarce rcsoLirces to projects of visible benefit to dty^

dwellers. As i leiult of dx Edw priority given to agriculture in miny African

and American countries, these coniinents are
Latin likely 10 continue fadng a
considerable^ food deficit for many years to come.

A myth of developmeni lore Is that ihe benefits of economic

further
development (rkklc down from d^ rich to the poor. This is also a
qucidonible dxoiy, Ln India, foi example, while thcGtccn Revolution ^^^
provided fix>d in plenty, there Is llide evidence of a commensucate
diminution of hunger, malnuEriOon and poverty in rural areas.
It \iAi been customary in ceCenl deCides to ClaSslfy the Courllrlea of the
world into chree categories— the World of the industrialized market
First

economy countries, the Secood World of the state economy Marxist world
and the Third World of die less developed countries. With the virtual
colbpse of the state controlled economies, ihis categtHy now has lltde

relevance and needs to be cast away, while the concepc of the Third World
has already become almost meaningless because of the great divetsicy of
economic condittons^ and potentialities that tbc term embraces. To bunch
together Saudi Arabia and Sjngspote. ot Brazil, Botswana and Bangbdesb Is

absurd, Irj that generalized statement! of Third World problems have linle or

1. A slmir^i ilHiJtIon \-, found (n ihtsc-tailfd NTCs ^Nc^^'ly iTidu^ir^liz^d Coviritrinl Thf
iczm tWili hji brcn u^cd cucniLdlly To dcsoibc [he ^pccucul^ dcveloprriencs m Hung
Kong. Singapore. Soud^ Koiei and TilwiDr >Jdw tnhrr oHiDtiin ludi is IndonnLi,
tfCilaTda and Thailand are also lollowlng die sacnc padi. Laigc developing (ountrm
intludliie: Erjzll. Tndjj jnd Mffcitn with ao irnJunrul hix crejird ynrs jro aie jJso
progieiiiflg tipidlv in [he uSi li nC* [cChnObSiti bul ire. m quite diflcicnt oicgoria.
ThiB we bvf j sp«iriim o* dlffersH sTa^ of hidusuiilinuonr

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

20 • The First Gio6ai RnvtulHrn

no rdfvancT lo indii/jduj] ascs. ii is now mor« popubr to itlet to the

drvrLopcd couniirlca as [be North and the undi^idirvelapNrd counuics a$ the
Saudi. Despite the gco^phicj] anamaly of IncLudliig Australia In the North.

chiB nomenclature makesmore sense. The Nmth South ac^iaUoD, bo wever,

hampen thenew effom to regard the problems oF development In die
r^caial a wcU js Id die global comot of the lapldly chanetng world
economic system.
Recent years have seen the growth of indebicdness in a number of
countries, in die cases of Argentina. Brizil and Mextco this has reached
dangerous proporDcau and whjlc man y lending agencies hivc wrincn oEE dieir
hifi dcbu, ^ dxWhci^ iomz :csthedulLng hds al^tn plitc, ihz debt
situation lemalns grave- botb for ihc development possibilities of die dcbiot
counirfesand for thesiabillty of the world (natidal system. ]n Africa while ,

IndeblcdnesiS is much lowei in absolute terms th^n in Latin America, the

debt servicing biuden
-
Is ciippJing. At a time when capital flow has turned to
meet the needs of the East European countries, less developed debtor
countries see llttk hope of an alLeviiilan of dicic difficult situation. Moat
extraordinary of all is the ^ct that the UEiited Siaus has allowed itself to

acquitcanlrternal debt of list 4. J trillion llD89),greiterth}n that of art^odiCT

countrf in the world. This remains a dark stormdoud on the economic

horizon r

The giave problems of world poverty, aggravated by population growth,

could well give rise to great disharmony on i world scale, from which the
industrial countrirt cannot hope to escape. Et Is in their own self ^[f if ^t duE
ihe rich countries must take a new. powerfuUnd radically different approach
<o the pioblems of world development. With the metamorphosis of East
Europe triggering the great demand for capital and for managerial and
Eechnoioiglca] Inflows, there Is a real feat thai the needs of the poor countries
will be forgotten or relegated a still lower prtorily than at present. This would
be dangerous noc only Ux the poot countries, but fcr the world as a whole.

Thi pcpuJ^twn txpitavm

The problems of most of the developing countries are giesdy exacerbated
by the population explosion. World pc^ulatfonn now just over ^ billion (from
LE billion in 1900) is expected to teach A. J billion in the year :CK10, and oveiS.^
hillion in 20?5, according to median UN projections. India's popubllon, for

«KamplF. would Enc^ea^e from 81Q million now. lo 1446 million, Nigrria'a

from 105 to ysl million, and Mexico's from S5 to 150 million. By tar the gicater
part of populaUon growth will take place in the less developed regions of the
world. Indeedn In the Industilailzed regions demographic growth Is very slow

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

diid In some axs even rvgadvp, pming to dipsr countries i wholly difftrcnt
son of dl^loiltlcs iswciatcd wiih jgcmg popuUuom.
The wotld's Jggrcgjtc population is incrcuing it pitscnl b;^ one million
posons every Four to five iLyi {(he reference hcie Is lo nel gtowih, dial \i

births minus deaths] Aldiough

. Feitillty rates mc bcglEUiIng lo fall In some
regions, bwausc fJ the vety low [ftcdlanag^ of rhdr populations, the dally
mouse In absolute terms will be greiter In ifae ye^r 2000 than it Is today
because of the population explosion- ]n these circumstances It Is difficult to sec
how [he necessary food, housing, health c^re jnd educailonjifacilltfflan be
[KOvided,
PopuLiDon growth isouinripping food production. Izi the yejrs pteceding
the recent drtnight, grain prtxluciiDn in sub-Saharan Africa was inaeasing by
about L6pcrcentpci annum -with population growing by 5.1 pel centr while
insome countries which hive the worst food shortages, pe: capita ptoduccton
has fallen by ibout 2 per cent per annum ovei the last decade. Funhermore.
population growth Is providing in inaoslngly Utgc woikforcc mainlr in
underdeveloped places whae thcr-e ks already acute unemployment,
poverty, and extensive underemployment. Thecreadom of millions t)f new
pbais indeed tme of ihemtHtfotnilddblelash^ie^Lilting from the population
explosion.

April 16. I9&ti - Chernobyl. USSR : ^ accident at the nuclear power station at
Chernobyl destroys the reactor and projects S tons of fuel (or 50 millbn cuiies
of tjdt^tlon) Into die atmcnpherc. A ladloactlvc cloud hangs ovet Eutope.
especially affecting (Jkrairv and Byelorussia (ttSSRj, Finland. Scandinavia,

Poland.Cernuny, and France. Immediate consrquerxres: ^^perstmsotflaally

declared dead ^?Q from r^diautm). 150,000 people evacuated, IIP villages
permanently abandoned, 4W people leriously wounded, AOO.CtO people
exposed 10 radiation of whom n have become permanent invalids, jnd 7.000
to ?^ .000 people expected to develop cancer In the coming years. Food crops
arkd animals are exposed to radiation for several yean all -over Europe- In 1M0,
approximately i million per^^ns are still ur>der medical supervlston. with

reports of at leut two persom dying every day as a consequence of thfEiiidcar

accident,
March 24, IPS^-PrirKe William Bay. Alaska; American oil lanlLer S.S. Ejan
Wt^z runs aground, spilling 40.000 tons of oil and pollunng over L744
kilometres of the coast, kill]rtg 480 otters and 33,126 birds. USS l.Qbilbon are
Spent to clean up die ^lll and to pay rampc nuuon to Ei&hing villager for the

damage caused

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 ,

22 • The First GUthHlR^vGiutvm

DfCf mber J. IPS*— BhopaL India; a kak ai th; Union Carbide pcsncMle
huxaty polscnu the Jlr with methyl Isocyandic kjlling ^MX) pcopJc dnd
wounding J00,COQ, of whom 50,000 remain permdncndy di^blcdr
A sulking faCure of the pedod under levlew is widc^pccad jbrn-i ai the
dclcHotatlon of both the ruial and the uiban envtronn^nE^ Environmental
palluGon was a coneqaence of ihc Induscri^l RcvolutJon and w^^ well
documcnicd In nlnneenth century UienturCp wtdi Dldkc's 'dark Sauoic mllb'
of indistrial Englmd, the ped wup fogs ind the diJty ilvcrs. A degree of
poHulkin control was gradually established in moH countries through
legislation, h'll heavy pollution of this sort persists in easlein Euic^ as the

hettiagc of the MitxUt cccMXimy,

By l%S.htnvever, a new cofKem hid surged. Industiyh^d become much
more sophlsdcdted. its output had diversified enormouiiy. wld^li» products,
bypoduct&H and wastes, in many oscs toxk and ixm biodegradable
dispersed everywhere In the blo$phctc. In addition, the ItKteasc In world
population arxJ Its concentratkui In huge titles, as well a& the masiJve
consumptltm tifgotxls and rruterlaU. was marking It more and more diEficuh to
dtspose of sewage and loJid wastes. It had been assumed until recently that

benevolent Narure would forever a b»rb and neutralize the w3?tf p-oduo^ of
sodelyspewed into die air jnd deposited in the soli, the river? and the oceans.
This as&umptltm no longer holds good; we appear lo have crossed j critical

threshold, beyond n^tch the human Impaci on the envifonineni threatens to

be desnuctlve and possibly Irreversible.

Public cocKcm was uouscd by die pub]icjuoo of popular books such i^

Rachel Carsons' S&ai SfitH^^ and Schumacher'^ SnidFT ji l^auiifuV. &y ]06t,
icacOons became vocal widi conservationist movements appearing
everywhere*. As public pressures grew in the industrialized countries,
governtrKnis took action. EnviEonmentaJ polkfcs and envliotimcnal
tnlnimiu mushroomed ind, since polluilon l9 no tcspcoer of political
boundaries, environmental issues reached ihe forums rrf Inietnatlonal

<Dnferences. This resulted in much Impravemcnt; nuny of the grosser kJruis

of pollution have been eliminated as a rcsuk of legislative acckm^ The
adoption of principles such as 'the polluter pays' has forced Irtdus try to accept
a new social responsibility; rivers have been cleaned up and air pollution

reduced, while everywhere local groups are vigilant with regard to

1. CjrsDin, IW.
I SchumitfwT, W^
},Thr United KiaomCodcnHC on the HununEnviioninenn in SiKUtdmtntnL'Q^'wtfi
brbdma rb nml.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 .

A WbirivindofChat^ • 23

devclopmcnEi which mlf^hr chrcsicn the f nvironmcnr , samcdmn advising

people with useful [(tresighl u)d conunon seme. Jnd n other omci dciJng
with Euutidsm.
An InuiAQdg development has been the wajr in which cot)Ccmcd publtc
gtoupd have come logctheria oke dliect political KOoa. The rl&c of (he green
[tarries ha^ been useful tn forcing the rrsdiuanal parties lo take the
envlronmenul issue? senouily, although ills difficult la foiCKe J Usdr^Tok
foi <hem,or,fDr thai marter for any single muepjrty. The 'green movement'H
useful ds It is, nay he In^Jvertently dlvertUig publk anentlon frotn the
lot^ cettn and nxjre seiiaus environmental Issues, which wc sh^TI diBcuss
latct, by Impressing d)cman in the street with proof of e;isj|y appiecjaud,
immedTately visible, but stilcdy local damage.

Annililljline dll ihac'^ m^df lo i grevn thou^Eht in a green shide.

Until lecendy nwst fbnns of environmental detctlotaUon have been

es^enrf3]|ylaealandeouldbe-ellm1natn]byloc3hndn3t[onalaet]on,aia<tni
cciuinly, but one which could be bomerflawevei.envijonniental threats of
a new magnitude fuvc now been Identified, which demand quite a different
approach. These have to do with a numbci of macro-polLutkin phenomena
which ate global In scope and beyond the capacity of individual countries to
cljininace. At present ihere arc fbm promlnenc sons of mdoo pollution.,

Di^/imffir of tttU m^Unca tnU lAc minnwunt. These loxic substinces

consist both d non- btodegrddshlechemiali jnd radioactive wastes. Initial
concern was aroused by the discovery ofthe widespread diffusion of DDT,
which was detected even in perfguln eggs In AntarcOW- This suggested
that the DDT molecule might find ics way Into the human food chain and
accumulate to a threshold of danger. Subscquendy, many other roi:lc
materials which arc widely diffused have' been idcndfled and it has been
pointed out that viEulendy loxtc matenals may penetrate Into the nuJn
aquifers of the world within a few decades
Accumulation of tojiic wastes, difficult to dispose of locally, have
toduced a number of industrialized countries to e:ipart their argoes of
poison' to poor counties In Afha which ate willing to x[\ discharge
nghts. This Is an Immoral trade, and its continuation will be to the

]. Scvcnuxmh cenlur? Caroline poei.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

24 • The Fmt Global R^poiuatm

dcirlmcrii not only irf die receWng country, but II wllJalwadvcndyaffHi

Lhe whole world Ai yCT,
. (here a no sansfaccory soltinan for the d[spo5al of
radioactive wastes, whfchf bcciy^t of ih-C v^iy long haULfe of nuny
ndjo isofopcSn demand cxticmel; long caaQliunent.

Af^^fntJiH «/ luibi iiid (Ac dcitniitiiH if firinfi cati^ii i^ cifluenh. from die
dilmnc^ of coal burning power sQUoiis, steel itilIIs, jnd no oa. Thli
danger has bcoi lecognlzed for some lime now ^nd h^ resulted in
inteiTiational complaints. For example, the [ikes and btests of eastern
Canada suffer from the imoke of Industile? In PItabuig, and those of
ScandfnavlafromtheaddgasesotthftictorleiliiThefngMMldlW^and
die Ruhir Much can be done hcie on alexia] basis [lor imeEnduonal as well
a& local results) by scrubbing Que gases, using low- sulphur oils and coals,
and othei means, but It ts a costly and The process of
djfficuli buiincis.

acjdjEic^cion has not yet been fully understood, and dicrcmay be other

agendes at work In iddiUon to fonnmlmtfon by effluenc.

These s«jb^anccs are chosen (ai iheii extreme nabtltty under normal
lerrstial condmons and used as aerosol propellants and In reftlgeratOTS^

UnfonuiHiclj, when ihey a^cai to rhe upper amiosphere they

decompose under the influence of ht^-intenslty uhravloteL r^i^oots and
release cblodne which attacks the stratospheric zone. The discovery a few ,

years a^, of large holes In the pfotecDve Dxane layer above Antarctica
caused alann that this layer was being depleted of ozone and that this

might c^usc jncreased ultiaviolct radjaiion a the e^iih's suifacer which

would greatly increase the risk of skin cancer ard other diseases. TheCFCs
were soon detected as the eulpriis.
Intei^rtationi] ^crion was obviously nwMsary lo prevent furchft damage
to theozone layer, and subsequent efforts to achieve thb suggest the type
of International negotiation that will be necessary in othei and mote
complicated cases In future. The smiaiion is essentiilly quite simple, since

tbenumbcc of chemical plants pEoducingCfCs In the wmtd is quite small.

The Montin] Confeicncc oi 13S9 succeeded In producing a gencial

agreement on the nature of the problem and on iia solution, namely the
development and use of dltcrnatLve piopelLants that are ozone-fhcndly As ,

a lesultn the use of CFCs may soon cease in ihe induJtdallzed counnlca and ,

research and development to thh end ts being actively pursued. The

difficulty l&[haisomet}f die poorer cau[tmc&,&iji;h^a]ndLd and Chin^, have
recently started up G^ manulacture in response Co the national need f«

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 A WhtriwindofChan^t • 25

ext^ixJjng Ec^lgeratlon tighu. Tr is diFFicult to cjipea such countries to

abandon recent invesimeni ^nd start agin withoui external i-ompcnsa-

tkm, and ihis problem has dius not yci been solved.

Mml ititnQLin^ RUTd-piQuUn i^ iai: tAe a-ctlUi iPCfiAffior rffetr' which Is

Increasing the tempcratutc oo die earth's suitKC. This effect concerns the
extent to which ccitaln comtliucnts of the atniosphere mirict the
renecttan of soiar tadi^Tioiki Erom [he surtice of the earth Into outer spice,
thus trapping die hf Ji The pioportkms of the nuni constituent ga^cs of m.
axygen ind nitrogen, seem to have remained constant during die past
mllicnid. and jiE present iife processes ate regulated by this. Howeveir
other gases which exist in much smaller concentrations and were Formeriy
referred to as 'trace gases' control the greenhouse effect. Since the
Industrial BcvoiuUon, the proporUon of these gases in the atmosphere ha^

jncreased. The roosi impottani of diese, carbon dioxide, has increased by

25 per cent, oxides of nttrogen by 19 pet cent, and methane by 100 per
cent. Other ga^s In die aunostJ>ere, such as our noiotious minmade
CFCs, aiso add to the effect, ai docs terrestlal oionc. Concern about the
consequences of dungc^ bruu^t about by the greenhouse effect drose
from observanon of the Increase In carbon dioxide concentration. The
influence of the othci ttKe gaaca was leallzed quite leccndj^r It wa»
r^oilc^ thii the propoiiiDn of carbon dic^iilde in die atmospherf haj
Increasedmore slixe die JndustilaJ Revolution than In the previous sixteen
thousand yeais, due to die combustion of fossti fuels such as oil and coji
which ate thf bibj^of IndustriallzaClon.Thls Increase is also the result of a
reduction In Nature's capacity to absorb the gas through photosynthesis,
because of thf pxtensjvr ellmlMtton of the nopial foieso.

A number of different and highly sophlstlated gbhal climatic models

Indicate that adoubllngof the prevloiisequLlibriamconceniration of carbon
dioxide would resuU In an average increase in rbe surface temperature ol the
planet of between J .5"c and A5X. It ts extremely difficult for die woild
public to appreciate that this Invisible and apparendy harmless gas which
bubbles up from our whisky and ;oda or Coca Cola, and which we outselues
exhale, Isi potential ciimlnitorofouipiospcrkiyindbfesiyles. Assuming dui
die pieseni Industrtal practice of burning fossil fueU continues, saiuraoon
point might be reached In fonyto forty-fivc years Incicislng piopoitlons of

I. Although [lie "gicwihouif effect' It fflJl j conEiDiTnljl lubieci ind abol^^TC ccitajniy
about iti eilitencf i^ill not b« fiOBlbte for Unthci ten jna. if lE e aHiRrmed by -Jui
time. wIjkIi li vciy llfceir, ii rtrlll be uo liic ro do drjdiing itnji n.

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26 • The Fim Gbtal RrpoiMjon

the othir grtfnhoui* ga^w makt the problem ^nl] movt foiwphaiMJ,
Great uncertainty sdlL exists with cegard ic thji problem, cspccjally the role
of the oceans in jbsoibmg cacbon dioxide, and la the possible ^K^sicnce of
<i\hv sinks for the gas. However., drcumstanual evidence Is now so strong
that the probabtliiy has to be taken seriously. The probable consequences of
nrth- wirm [ng will be discussed in the nen chapter, but suffice ][ to say here
that rhey ate man; and seiloiu. li nanoits avoid Qkln^ dctjon luiill the
tonsequcnces of the gteeohouse effect become obvious, it may be too late to
reverse the process, with dj$asitous results On th? other hai^dn if action Is

taken now and the onset is slower cmrmou^ coit& will have
Than predicrcd,
been inturrcd This brcoma, Therefore, a ctac caw of the need (o develop
methods oE man^ment and dca^ion- making m uncertainly
VVe must return brtefly to die question of the eJimlnatkin of coplcal

foints, which, in addition to Jtscontrlbuttonto the greenhouse eEfecE, is to be

decried for many other reasons. It generates local and regional dlnuDc
changes, causessoilercKicin and dciwnstream flooding, and frequendy loves
soils which are unable to sustain agiicultute. En the ease of the Amazon Basin,
especially, it fnvoives the «dnctton of innumerable plant and animal qiedes
ara flme wbw the pt«er«tkw of gewflcdiveriliy U oi imflwwe lm^mn«.
In addition. It catises great human suffering and cuftural loss as foresi peoples

aredisplacedordieout due to their mabiliiy to adj usi to a r^w v/iy of lile.

We must also mennon the problem of the Increasing ^ardty of fuclwood

jn reany countries Jn Africa, Asia and eUcwhcic The bunni^ of wood and
charcoal sdll temalns the main domeidc cnagy source for a high pro^rtlon
of the rural population. The gachering of ^el is generally d woman's task.

Widi demographic growth, accessible wood has become increashigly scarce

and In some cases, a dail^ task which formerly took a couple of houts now
demands sm. Shortageof wood encouiage^niral populations to bum animal
dung is fuel, diuf leading to the Uck of d^d; ndiuial ki^ixi fn crops and
thereby to the dcierioiation of die soil In many tioph:il dtles, fuel wood has
become exorbitant ar>d households have tiirr>ed lo using kerosene fur their
domesdc needs. This necessitates the expetidlture of scarce bteign currency,
as do changing focjdhablu. As Lester Brownj the president of d)eWorkl watch

Institute. USA, puts It, nuny cities in the poorer CDuntrJesaiclJterilly living
from ship to mouth',

Tht s^vafia of hifiinfiiimk^m

Our present society is built materially on highly successful technological
development. Ever since tiie onset of the Industrial Revolution, with its

replacement of human and animal power f^rst by the steam engine and later

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 ,

A WhiHwind of Change • 27

by cl^ctiiticy. productiviiy hs
D«pltc rarly fcara, this has led co
increased
the giowih of markets inacascd cmpbymcnc, and rhc spread of pcosperlcy
,

At fir sc, dicic df vclopmenii wcic milnly based 00 cn^rlcal bvcntton Wtth
the emergence of chemical 3nd ckctiital industries, however, the main
Impuke to developtr»:n[ has come from the discoveries in dK sdenttElc

liboraTorifs. The success o\ lechnologtcal d^veloprntm jnd ihe role of ihr

appbcabon of scientific methods In detetmtning die outcome of [he Second

World War led podt-war govemmencs and theli tnduscrjes id give massive

resource support Co sdendfictesejcch jndche jpplicjUQn of tcs discoveries Jd

tedmology. The le^d umc h^om ^Cieodhc discovery, thitxigh applied reieardi
and technlaJ deuek^pmeot, Hence duting [he first part
to pioductkjn Is long.
of the peilod under review we saw mainlv Improvements and novelucs o( a
relad-vely traditional ktnd. Later, bteakrhroughi cxiciured and completely

new types of techiKslogy ippcaied, especially booi the discoveries made in

solid -$tate physics and molecular biology,

TfieapplliatlDnaofthcncw.jtdvariccdEfiihnologie^ jce now ^ tvidcspri^
thaiwe can only present a very superficial Indicaoon of ihetr slgnl&carw. The
ubiquitous application of mkroelectronlcs Is now obvious in bciorlcsp ofhccs
and shops. The silicon chip microprocessor with Its low cost and extreme
mahes It poisible to provide a brain and a n^emory to any
miniaturlzatiot^,

piece of equipment devised by rraan. Furthermore, microelectronic

lechntqueswoikwellwithmanyotheitypes of advanced technology such as

hologFaphy. satellite use, liquid crystal technology, and gbss-ftbre optics. The
results ippeat In an enormous variety of mlcroeleoronk devices iind s^dg«ts
of ever tncrcaslng sophtsOcailfm. Computers, when first devebpcd duimg
the World War Jl occupied whole rooms widi bulky equipment. These are
mw miniaturized, much ^er, more reliable, cheap and widely jvailable^
MEcroclectionJcs has penetrated deeply Into livlustiy ^t every stage, from
dcjign to packaging. Automadon and robodndon ate inodifying Indusoial
processes and structures, and are ellmlruting^^ngerous, dirty and tepetldve
tasks, creadng the need for new skdls and clallen^g educational and
tralnmg traditions. Ar>d this Is only a begirtnlngi new generations of 'smart
robots' are appearing whldi can see and feeE^ emphasis Is shifting from
jmprovements in hncproducdon towards integtatcd systems of man [rtacture;
new (ypes of equipment are bemg devdsed through •mfdiaaanm, a combined
approach whtch brings together electronic and advanced mechanical
techniques. These advances are rapidly periccradng all sectors of the economy
and constitute the basil of the pan- Industrial sodely. Whether these advances
wJll be fuliy responsible for change or net depends on the evolution of many
of the other ch;ingcs we have described.

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 ,

28 • TbeFintGioJaUBjToiuiwn

Katonubc banking and tht C3&hlfss sodcty vc already hect, viHic

aulonuled stock exchanges and financU] tmufer systems operate ^11 coo
qulcklj' someames; the computer has invaded every type of research acavitj

horn hisiory to 2\tcah design

Nowhere has ihc impact of elecuonlci been more marked than in
cominuniaO(m&, Trkphonc ^^tcm& have impcoved immej&uTibly The use
of telefax hisfpread at an eitaaardindry late, elecdonlc maki systems hdve
prolifi=raiedii]dvldeD confeicndngisnowposslble. MostdTamadcofall has

been die steadily ad vjni:ir]g influence of television. This powerful aim of the
media has CHicndcd wuildwidc during the prcsem period; it Is employed In
thctondldonTngofpopuladonscom^ethfrr^iccqitthracisofdiaacors, and
used for educational purposes, for the broadca^tjng of news and oplnkms
{of[«n chdiacterized by distortion ai^ triviahzation) and, above alh for
enteraknmeiit. Its Influence on the political system is now cnormous^
Eltctoraces are now swayed by projeclions on television of the charisma of ihe
andiddin oi by :hc abxncc gf sudi publidty. On die othcf hdnd, Lve
transmisskm of parliamentary pnxeedfngs has, in a number of counoie^n
exposed the triviality of debate ai>d che banality of political personalities^
This has contributed to the present lo^s oF pubUr confidence in the opei^tion
of the democratic sTsccm, by demonsttaang that soeallcd parhamcncary
debates merely consist of liie contnved ccxifrontatlon of voteseelting
political parties.

Aword must be added here, concerning the slgni^cance of liie other

^vanclng main line of technology, nami:ly bioJogy, whjch \m been
transformed by the understanding of the functions of DMA, the unravelling of
the genetic code, and ihe odvi discoveries -of molecular biology. These
developmenis are much less visible to the pubUc than those in

micioclectronto, bui arc equally profound and Important for the future of
ihf \nanm tKt. Many difficult ethical quesdom have surfaced, especially
with :egard to the potential manipulation of human genes Already genetic
engJnecEing has produced many Important advances in medicine, and many
more are CEpecled. Creat advances h^ve been nude in the modificauon of
plant and animal species in the area of protection agatnst diseases and changes
of climate, a» well a \n tncicving agriculiutal production ^nd modifying the
products. Unfortunately, these dramatic genetic modifications are llXcly to
prcxluce considerable improvement in regions whcie they are least required;
for instance, increases in milk yields^ initially at Least, will occur In pbce&
where there are already abundant reserves of milk. It tj somewhat troubling
tonotethattecent][idgemeni3 make it possible toobiain ptent rights for new
genetically ptoditced species.

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 A WMHrntuLofChar^ • 29

Waridjinana
The economJc uansfoiirubon of [be East European counties, including
the USSR, requires quick action ii cconomtc ccJlapse Is to be avoided.
ftciectJon of dtf Marxisc ly^icm and ronverjton to a nurlLet economy is not
easy. Not only musrneiv ^trucuirea be created, but endrelych^ngnfamtudcs
on die part aE chf workforce snd msnsg^ment are n^ cesssry br adapQUon to
a cotnpeUdve system, Cuai^nteed eznpJoyment In the old system Inevitably
mejnt low productivity, while lack of Incendve inhibited all Innovadori.
Consequently lb«e countries now find themselvea burdened wtth debts,
highly polkdng ^ciorkcs wich obsoli^te equipment, a shortage of capicil, and a
Uck of Enodem managcmcni skills. Sodal and psTchologJal adjuE[in«n[ will
be nccenaryn for eKamflc. m fsdng rhc ucihmiliar situation o\ tnasstue
unemployment CoiuidcnbJe r^xteradi help will be needed, notonly in the
pfDvisio II of capital, but al» in discfonn of technical aixJ managerial assistance
and many othtr aspects of free market developmetU. In the case of unified
Gcnniny, the Federal Bqiubllc will be able to furnish East Germany with
capital, managerial know-how and training, but it Is unlikely thai die
ttansfbimaDon of Eist Geimany wiLI be achieved wtthoui a great deal of
Individual and social h^rd&hip,
Hopes have been raised In eastern Europe about the prosperity that wltl
flow from the adopdon of the market economy While thoc hopes arc
largely justified, ai least In the long run. It Is Imponant diac market forces
should not be regarded jstheonly^genislndieacqolsitinnDtabeEieE life, and
that their limits should be understood well, as mendoiricd earUer. Ideals
should not be cast out Indiiccinnjnjtely; It is necessary to retain some of ihe
more positive aspects of sodabsm. Odmwise there could be a luddish against
capjUllsm.
Pol iitcal power in the modem world \% no longer controlled mainly b; die
power and relaUve sophistication of ^rmainenn, but is lEicreaslngly
determined by financial power. Indeed, In recent history, excessive
exper^lture on aimaments las proved ruinous to the two superpowers,
while the two countries prevented from rearming after defeat In the Second
World War are those wirh die largest su rpluses. In addldon, it Is detrimental
for thr big powers that theit tndusincs depend only on the stJie market and
donolthereforebeneftt from the normaJ&ee trading conditions dsac exist in
odier councrtcs-
In the mid to late 1980s, financial fieniy gripped the world markets,
Fininclal arxl currency exchange speculadon, aided by computerized
communicadons, became a ^me completely dlvofccd ftom CCOnomlC
reabty. Mergers between firms Tnushroomedn aimed at immediate gains ai>d

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

unrdated ro loAgcemi ^ffidcoey. Imtdcr b^iiiig ind otbcr foiim of
corruption flourished in pbcca hUherto leguded u ethkJL)' relJibte,
Eccmomlc gjln wa& ccvKdvfd ofinrennsof ^aodai o^actiociig raihet than
innouauve and compcdilvc dcvcJopm cm, often la Isolation froin the ph^iicil
r»]liy undf [lying flEUiKe (bi example, cdL pdce was determined by the
QTWla laihci thjn by [hf jvalhblllry oi oil, «se oE exuicilon, etcj The
cDiiaequcnces of such pracdces gave rise to fears of a stock market collapse;
they aim reptesented a fbghc fiom re^l industry to finuidal LblJy^ Ftnandal
imablbty l» sail a JouKe of ^nou^ lurbulcncc withjn the pioblcmatiquc.

ThflessofpaiHti

There appears (o be 3 general loss of the values which had previously

ensured the cobecence of society and the confonnancf of IndividuaU ^a ks
norms. In some places diis has been the result of a loss of ^ih In religion and
the ethical values dut all religions promulgate^ In odier cases It Eiems from a
loss of confrdence in the pollOcal S^S^n:^ Ipd 4k>^ who operate bt. Yetapln,
the welfare state, desplie all the social advantages and security it confers,
seems to have reduced the sense of nTponsiblllcy andselfrellaEKeof many
Individuals. All thlsfusledb>a[ihKr«ashigr«tKtlonofthcdcdiiMisflf rhe
majority by minorities, often aggravated by a sense of social Injustice or
exploitation. However, there are a numberofc^rlng organizations which look
after diosc who need help. These signs of die existence oE tradlllot^ values
snll remain modesC-
Thc&f ^d many other causn hive Erd rotbe sixiaE indj^cJpJjnc, vditddllstn
and violence that have become a tradernack of our ag<r In cases of rea] or
Imagined political peisecution or of radal discrimination, violence can breed
terrorism, which attracts malcontents and fanatics. Such people have taken
great advantage of technology thai provides ifiem wil:h new and effective

cxplnives, accurate delayed tjmj[ige:cpEciSLvedevjLesandiemoteti]ggeimg.

[n some cases training In terrorism ^nd sabotage, and equipment may hdve
been provided b^ rogue oriuntries. These are all manlfi=siatians of the general
malaise ofcontemporarysodeiy that can. In feci, be dealc with as such, in cases
where a widespread sense of deep Injustice is ^bc cause.

The HOP pit^ffnes

A different category is that of crime, violerKe and coercion organized for

monetary g^n 01 political power. The classic case 1^ that of the M^fla. Still

more dangerous has been the emergerKe in recent years of the well-
organized drug trade carried on by the Mafia and other similar bodies, which
,

has gained enormous power and attacked whale governments with terrorist

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 A Whirlwind of Cha»^ • 31

Tactics. Tt is s jid thjt [He cotal eariitngs ^om th? drug aadr exceed even ihit of
thf oil liidusD'y. The diug nfiwork, Etom che cultivator through the drug
barons who operate chemical plants for refining drugs, to the couriers aihd
dIstiibuEors, I& all pervasive and aldmes seems invuhicrable. The human
misery and disintegration caused by drugs Is enormous and js we are aboui to .

ind[cate, ir The growth oF this evil, which shows no

sptfadi ledul disrties
sign of slowjng down, has bec:jn:^e 3 mattei of deep coTKem.bul there 15 great

unceralniy a, to how lo attack it. The hnaJ solution would be Co reduce

demand dvon^ trejDnoituid education, but dils 1$ vcr>^ dlffJccik In view of
the wide dlxprrtionoF drug- rakecs So attempts »re being made coellminaCf
[he powcE centres of [he industry jnd Eo compcmaic chc cu1eivi[q[& by
lUowing them to produce food crops.
we must point out the existence of the recendy discovered deadly
Fin-ally

disease known as AIDS ^acquired Immuno-defiaency syndrome). Tiiggercd

bytheH[V virus, itis a tCKuaUy transmitted disease which is also passed on by
diuguscn through toiiEJtnjnatcd nerdlcs. furthermore, infeacd pregnint
womenhjveavery high chaTKe of giving birth to babies who will carry arhd
probably develop the virus. bi the eaily stages of its hrscory. the vtrus ttaa

tiansmfttedtoTeedversorhloodnansfuKlons In which die donated blood h^d

not been checked for the virus. An infected person may cany the virus for a
umbci of years without any iH-eSects, but it then usually devrLops into
AIDS, which attacks the Immune system and causes death through one of
many diseases which the patient, with a damaged immune system. Is unable
U fighl. Al present, progress has been made toward; a cure and new
tieatmcnD aimed at alleviation of suffeiing a ULtcnsun of Hie arc being
tested wi[h erxoun^tn^ resuhs^
AIDS appears to have already reached pandemic proportions in some
African countries and Its global spread is greatly feared- Apart from tbe
mo[[alky rj[c jnd leriLble human iuffeung involved, the cose of deatmeni
2tA of education campaigns a burden to these countries where ^
a great

nxmopabzcs hospital accommodation and diverts attention and effort from

die cure ot con[iol of tnalaria. biJhama aod other debilitating disease?.
AiaQme when medfclne has made mch extraordinary piogtess bath In lO
[hcnpeuticandprrventjvf capacju», AID5 reminds ujth^f in jpkc of ill [hJs

progress, man reTiHtns vulnerable in the area of both physical and mental
health. This deadly disease, agamst which vaccination is ineffecuve becaiue of
[he mutatton of certain vlruscSn <]cnu>mtiates [hat at least for the Ume being,
the permanent stiuggk for health, despite some wishful thinking. Is as
unavoidable as death.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 2, Some Areas of Acute Conc^m

From our survey of recent global changes- Ilis doi duE cheie is considerable
mteiaction between the vailois element of (he piobkmaOque Popukdon .

growth In a poor counny , means ihji mof e food has to be grown,

ior Insiancc,

which in lum will put prrs&urc on soil ind waif i r«ouif«. Itihr food has to
be imported, it means the diversion of scarce hacd cunency icserva Erom
othrrareasoFdevelopmeni. Again, a large poputationu^lll have an Impici on
che environment, leading perhaps to the eEcessive cutting down of tiecs for
fuel, with the social consequences that wt have desciLbed.
dupia will deal with »mc of die mosi uigcnt indtenal ptobkm^
This
wh^ now appear to be threatening humanity, and espcci^lljr that part of the
problem^tique, consisting of the Intertwining factors of populatfonn
enviranmeiK, food aiMJ, energy.

The^njvrh afhwaan ncanry

A central feature of the global situation Is the enormous increase In the
totality of human activity during die procnr fmcury. which has neccBarily
led to a huge rise in ihc demand for raw materials and energy Much of this
increase is due, ofamrse.lothespectatiiiar growth of the world populaOon
during thi^ peEiod. whose numbers wiU be added to In the ve^i^ ro come by
cohort after cohort of new inJubitanta. Some people' ^rgue diat fertility has

bc^un Lo dcaciK pans of die world- Accordiog uj Uni^ Ndtioni

in ill

estimates, the level of fertility has gone down from an average of 6,1 chlLdien
per woman inl065-1970to).Qin 1985. The cultural obstacles to demographic

I CtvndH. iDftT

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

 SemeAroBofAatUCimam * 33

cbngf jrr considfntil? u)d cbcy £111 delay chc ^pcctcd chaAg«s bp Crne ar
two dccadcj. but they t:in do no more In the end thjn slow down in
incviQble trend which is laigdy atttibutabic to modernization. The issue is

not whether go down, but when and jt what rate.

FcttJilty will

All the Sime, even i\ fcrtillcy were to slow down drutkally. ihe
demographic thrust contained in the jge pyi^mid ts such th^f population
growth will condnue on Its present course for rruny decides lo come and thi;

will require some iiKJactous InnovaDons Ln deveTopmenl stialegles.

There Is sw even more powerful factor responsible lor the growth of

hum^n jcilviLy, namely the increased per capita consumption that economic
growth haj xiiiAt po$3thlf and which hai rcdpoDcaUy been the nimdus for

dial growth- As demonstcjied by the pcoliEer^on of mass-produced gocds

coinlngftom thebctorlesof thelndusDiallzed world, we live In. a consume
society. In Europe, before the Industrial Revolution, per captla consumption
was lltdedlfferenlfromlhatof many of the less developed counoies today.
Now the dvcngc pci aplQ c^jn^umpoan of maLciidh dnd cticigy \i ibout
Forty tiiiKs greater In the North thui in the Icbs developed countries of the
South. At iti extreme, the dtspariCy may be more than 1130:1. This Is not only a
reflccijon of soda] tntusbce, but an indicadon of the Increase In our
exp4oltation of Nature^
Compounding popubbon numbers with average pei capiu consumption
gives a tough indKaiionoI the [tJtalnv of human acitvlij. We esiimjie ihanhis
may have Increased forty-fold during this century. Until now, consumption In

the rieh countries has been ihe niJin componejii of this burgeoning aciiiJity,

but in the coming decades, the demographic component will become

Inaeasingly tmponani.
In this picture of resource consumpUon, we must point out the criminally
wasteful use of human, matecial and energy resources u&ed for military

purposes, c^pcciiliy where such dctivitics aic a source of profit in ^onie

developed countries. It Is difficult to understand how the people of the wodd
have been willing to tolerate such waste in the face of hungei, poverty,
dl$casc and underdevelopment, which ihem$ctv« brfedwarmdviolcnce.it
ts not easy to be precise as to the Tnagniiudc c^ Tcsotirce consumption for

military purposes, National financial cj^pendituitt oo defence do, howcrctf

give some indicanon. The recent world total appcats to have been about U5 tl
trillion In ml terms, a four fold Increase since (he end of the Second World

War and a twenty five-fold escaladon since the beginning of the century.
Figures ilone do not convey die magnitude of wasWn w some comparisons
may be useful. It has beenpoincedouCH for imiiance, diat fer many ^ears, the

military expenditure of the world has been comparable with the combined

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

34 • The Pint GloJralRnsiUwoH

GNPs ai Hi the countries of Lann Amcnca and Africa together. Th^ annual
budget of UnlceP is cquivaleniiowhai :hc world spends on dc£cn« jn four
hours. The dimlraiioo of nnallpox under WHO^ guidajKC Kck Kn ycirs to
achieve jrxlmit under US *ICCrn[J lion. Ic» than the cost of dcvdopfrig a jmall
ali'io-ilrmlsitler We canonly hope diai dill wsitageoEcesoutces will now be
redijgcd considerably a i rcsuLc ^r cjticn&ivc di^umdmcnL— and xhn the
uvlng^willbcputiocoruirucuveuse, such js sjtisfyiDg dke csienual needs of
the undcrpunleged.

Constdcradon of resource consumpdcin antf Its disparities brlngj usro the

concept of s-usuin J ble development wh:ch ^^ ^^lejcty ^nd opnmisucally
expounded In the M^ndtland Report' on environment and sustainable
developments [I Is doubtful that a sustainable global development can be
achieved with the growth rate In the Indujtrlzcd countries Incrcasmg it the
latc juggotcd in the lepori. A lusiaJnable' sodcty impTir^ thjc ihe society is

based on a Iflngterm vision, in iha[ li must foresee the conseq aences of Its

diverse activities, and must ensure thai thc^ do not bleak the cycles of
tiatwil: IE has to be a mdety of conservation [t must avoid the adopfkin of
muiuaJLy Irreconcilable objectives. ^iulLy lE must be a axieiy of socl^i iusQce,
because great disparities of wealth or privilege will bceed destructive
dtehaimony . In other words, the cotjccpt Is Utopian, but one that is well worth
striving for. A sustatnable society would never arise within a wotld economy
which relied a^Fididjf on the opccaticn of the ni^rhct forces* Important as
thc5c may be foe the malntenarue ol vitality and creative Innovation. As. we
merEEoncdcarilei.naarket forces respond unjqueiylo very short-tennslpitis
ind 3it [io sure gutde uj long teim coTisidfiataon^.
Having accepted the concept of sustaln^bility theie remains die question of
,

fbc general level of material affluence that can be sustained, and the
dlspaiities between the rich and the poor — bodi within and between
countries— which can be LoLeiated, taking into account social justice as welhs
pjactlcaJ realiOcs. This is no pica for cidlttaridniam indeed collective vilun in ,

recent yeaii have preached a pseudo egaliiaiianism which has ineviiabl;^

clashed with the realities of human nature.

[n seeking a normative approach to future world development En the

present times of Eurbulence jnd change. It Is vital to discover whedier die
present levels of material prosperity m the induiirialtied countries aie
compatible with global sustj in jbiirtyn or, moie Imponuidy, whether a world
economy driven by sQmulatecJ consumer demand can continue for long. This

]. UnllnJ FJ^ncns (IntcnHborulj Clilldmi'i [EmngcrKf} Fund.

7 Woiid Hc^lili OrgJiiLZJiiork.
i. World Cornmbnn on EnvUonjnrnl ii\d EV^crcpm-nV. 19S7.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 '

Som^ Anas qfAiXte Cmam • 35

Is Fkc of peculation and t nvjconmenlal constmntM. Jl

particularly pertinent In
Is o[ couTK J conirovcrsiii qucsutxi which Jew, Ifan^n govetninents would
have the courage Co hce. But IC U die vjcal quuuan o£ ±c pifsfni, and will

evennully be forced on the polintians by The people. We believe thai

consumfci^m in its present form cannof persitt, not only beaiue of

consujintt butIw d«per r«sons of human vj|ij« The shallow ^juifaaion^

of consumerism— kceplT!^ up wiih the |oneses'; am what own'— are '1
i

incompactble with a decent human Ikte whkh needs i deep sense of scir
respea. It leads through gteed to the pre^nt 'hurnjn mablse' die
manifestations of which we will diescrlbe later.
Wc must sacs5 thai wc ire not aduoating zero cconomk: growth, indeed
we are convinced of the need to stimulate growth In the underdeveloped
South. But tn the Industrialized North, with the evolution of the poit
fnduEirul society, there seems to be a need Jot die growth of quality,

GiahaJ Wanmn/i ami in itfiplkatipm

In ihc present state of our know-ledge of the complex IntOiCGoni wjthui

die planetary ^y^tem, die grecnhouK effect appears to be the most Immtncnl
constraint on the extet^lon, or peihapa even on the survival of an economic
system which has served the ilcbcr coimcrtes well for 2 long time. The
consequences of die hcadjig upof the eardi's surface cannot yet be predicted
with sny degree of ptccIsIOTh but diCTe seems to be agreement as 10 ibe
general trends.

W*vE always thcwElit of dlnute as an «t Of God, It [Equlres an

emnnDus shift the way we think of the world and our pbce
ti In H to
urbdersiaruf ihat wehavpdfrGddy moved Into an en In wfilch wfm
iclually responslbfe for managing cllmalk paranKters. Finally, sher
y&dijotnijslakn, we jrvcorrlrhgiorecogiuze that continued economic
prosperity b ri^ 10 ecoloekdl siew^rdshici, Therv b irsponsible profri
m be mAiF In coring fcrr The planet,
Poben RedfonI
In Crwnliotiie Cijuioit^

The rise in temperature ciused by the doubling nfiheatTftospherlc carbon

dioxide IS estim^Eed to be cons^etably gie^fer than cyclical changes In
lempeiaiurc which have occurred in historical Umes, The greenhouse cffea

3. Founder. InsuiuK kaource ManiBcmcm.

foi

Ir Th? SundjncF Summit mn Global CUituIf Clungt (Sundancr, Utah, li^j

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

36 • TbeBm Gbbtti Rnviutton

wjlE not be uniform ovrr the surficf of ibr canh, but will be Ins it [he
equator md much gruicr ai high bt^cudra. This wJlJ dJur [he dionul
gradicnrs of the planet and Is expected to con^id^ lably change the pattern of
preclplation. modifving ihe various cllmatk lonc! and hence ibdi viability
for jgriculturc. [t^ exp^cEfd, foi fxampEp, dut m3)0T food producing drts^

}uth 1? the bread bowls t>f the American Middle West ^nd die Ukraine will

become aild, while other areas la the Noriii wiU become fcrtlk. Transitions
may oi may ncn t>c gradual, bm In eiihcr case world food security Is

threatened. It is also expected that theie will be moie changes In cLmalk:

condiuons than In the piast, with greater ejitiemn tn temperature uid an
Inaeasc In die frequency c^ huttlcanes. Indeed, one of the greatest sources of
unceruintv in predicting local and global climate change is die effect that
global warmtng will have ondoud coverage. The monsoon cloud STSlem of
die troptes, for exunple, us main bcbsr of world climaTe r^guhdcin and it Is
known that It reacts slgm^icjndy Co small changes tti oceari lempciature^
A hirther consequence of the heating of the earth would be a rise in sea

level, caused by the thermal expansion of the sea waters, and run- off from
land botne ice capj. This mighc m.can a general rise In the $ea Level of as much
as one metre- Icadlrig to tJicsubmerstori of lowlyltigrcglDrcsind exposure of
larger areas to the danger of flooding durtng sprang ades arvt steams. The
sea-level rise wmild.of couc^e, lake phce gradually over the years, so there

should be Hme For adjustment. The effect would virtually eliminate soine

groups of Islands and gready erode many important rtver deltas such as diose

of 1^ Nile and die Cangi^ wjih the dl^ticement of latgc populadon;^ It 1$

interesting tQnOite that during th^ past hundred year^ the global sea level has
.

risen by JO-JO centimetres, while the mean surbce air tempcra.{ure has
jncrciff^ by ^bi^iut 0.?° Cel^lijj.

Thete are- of course, many measures which can be taken to deUy and
buffer earth- heating and cventuallyto brin^ii toa halt. The iundamentalflep
Is the reduction of carbon droxide emission by a massive reduction in the use
of fossil fuels. The !9Sa Toronto Conference of scientists suggested that ic
would be necessary to rcducf carbcm dioxide f mission by jppEOKimately S>
per cent bythe year 2005. Atewvaluableycais of grace could be won through
a worldwide campaign of eiKigy conservation and e^ldctKy^ Some argue
persuasively thai an Interisive attack on energy efficiency could Itself solve the
problem, HowcveTn even Lf this accomphsbed, the long lead time in the
development of the new cfficicni processes mikes ii unli^dy that exclusive
reliance on such a policy would enable control of the warming quickly
eruugh. Increasing energy efficiency arwl d>e conservation as well as the
development of sources of soft energy, such as solar, wind, tidal md

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 Souk Arraa ofAjmU Concent • 37

gcochcrmal energy, must Im our ImmcdIatccaskJf the disruption of indusEiul

pioduction ^d individiul hardship are lo be avoided.
Whal 6icn are our eneigy prtHpects^ While (here it i prtstfii glut of oil,
we aic nearlngthc end of the- Long period during which th\$ non renewable
resource h^ been die^p and plenuFul. Quit? apan, [ben, from the need to
reduce its use as primary fuel because oi the greejlh(>uJe e^eCE, mcuurej
should be gradually Instituted to conserve dUsvitaJ resource a& a feed stock for
the petrochemtcal Industry which will be required indefmiccly for the
productiDnofplasdc£<pharm3CCuHcaU,dyesfu£&ind jhostoFodKEpioduco
now j^^umedco be essential Coal l^&tlUavaibble in plenty, built seems as if it

\i becoming too dangerous lo use because of rirth warnili^, imica the

[cchnological pro^e^ currently taking place makes it posnbLeio considerably
llmtt 1i£ negative effects. Sottenergyalterrutives can no doubt be provided,
but at [he present rates of development they are unlikely to be avatiable In

sufficient qujntiOes In time to supplemenl the reduced supply of fossil fucb,

Pie^ent fsdnutcs suggest that soft energy sources may piovtde somr S 10 pci
ccn( of world energy needs at the end of ihe century There appear . [o be good
prospects for Improvement In theeFflclerKy of photo- voltaic cells, but the
prospecEof cheli covering vise ireas of land, which would (hen "be unusable
for other activities, k hardly attricdve.

Thr promise of nuclrar fusion ha^ b^en htid out for many yurs a the
eventual u>lution to all our energy problems, l>eing virtually tnCKhaustible.
This may prove to be true, but its abundant availability seems to be as Ear off as
when the Idea was first propounded. We certainly cannot lely on fusion lo fill
the ^p if and when earth- waimmg forces us lo reduce the use of fossil fuels.
It appears that we may have to prepare for a crttkalsiluatkmto arise a few

decades ahead, wfien weareciompelled by the dangers of earth- warming to

drutlcally reduce our use of fossil fuels and have no alternative sources of
energy in sight. In such dTC<imstane«> nuclear fiston eouid be the only
possible way of partially alleviating die situation. Majiy of us have been
unfiappy for a long lime abotit the prollferstion ofnuclear power stations with
tbcirobvtousdangers, as well AS rhfuecf the dLJfujal of nuclear waste, but we
DOW reluctandy admit that the use of coal and oil is probably more dangerous
to society than nuclear energy, bcciuse of the carbon dto:tide It produce.
There are, therefore, strong arguments for keeping the nuclear coition open
and for d^ development of fa^t breeder zeaciors. We must warn, however,
that the adoption of this opuoTi could only partly provide a solution, it would
be ilmosL impo&slble to make available the capHal and i\v: cffon necessary tor
the conscrucdon of sufficient nuclear powa ratJons In rime to match ihc
demand for energy caused by the reduction In the use of carbon -dioxide'

Copyrighted maierial
33 • The First Giobai Rrvotiaion

The Empaa of global ivuming could be pjrtiojJuLjidlfFlculc bt tb« poorer

countries. Drvclopmenc d^n jnds cnecg^ bi Industt]' and agriculture as well

as for the domadc rcquirfmfnu of increasing popubdore. The type of

situation which mighi uise Is lllustr^ifd dramdCicaUy by the pL^ns foi ihe
mdusttHlizauoti oE China ihe mosi populoui counti}i of the world.
, Thew are
ba^ondieuscof coal, of which the country hjs lirge le&civQ, ai>d would
even tudlly nuke China one of the icKJmgioffenders amongst ihccoujioles of
the world In teinu of catbon dioxide polluOon, ai a dine when indu$rtics In
therenof the world would besltlvlnglo drHtlcjUy reduce its emission. To
foKC China or, for that maoer, any developing cotmtry to halt lis

industtlallauon without compensauon would be morilly wrong, politically

disastious, and practically Impouible, The Chinese ejipetts are well aware of
this problem, but the dilemma is not easy to resolve.

Glohatjbtid ircurity

Production of sufficient food to niKCt the needs of a rapidly liKreasIng world

popuiaQon is obviously a matter of prtmaiy concern, Ln die early 1070s when
the ^igj^ifit^^rKe of the population eicploslon Brs received general AEtentioA.
aurhorjuuve uoSces assured us dur it should be possible \a giow food for i
world populjticurajljrge as 30 billion. This IS probablvlechn]ca[]vpossLbTc, if

agriculture IS coiujdcrcd in isobuon. In the reai world, however, it has to be

considered in the coniexi oi the pioblematiquc, because of constrainti due to
(Xher facttffs. Ft^ c^tampk. In tbc long-tam cstinuics oi food ptoducDon
possibilities, it was j^sumfd di^i wj[» shortages could be overcome by
desaliiution of brackt^ water or of sea water Ehrough technological
innovacions, which the pressure of denund would conlure up, This^ look no
account of the enormous energy rcquiremenis which would be needfd for
luch proce^e^H iioc orthcavaLlabtlJtyottlia^ energy.
Nevertheless, the increase m agricultural produicDon since the end of the
Seomd Woild W^r has been phenomenal ind has led to a sirLiatlon of

cojuidcrabie world surplus des[»Ee demographic growth. In 19S>, it was

estimated that world food production was sufEldentio provide some 19 per
centmore calorics than were necessary to provide :i reasonable diet for every
person on earth. Yet hunger and malnuintion persist in vast areas, worsened
by drought, famine and warhre. It seems, therefore, that the production of
enough food has little relevance to the persistence of hunger In ih* world.
The succcSiSoftSe Green Revolution in India in transforming the food situation

from deficit to surplus, does noc seem ic have eliminated hunger in that

country, as mentioned earlier Tfie hungry jre the poor, unable to buy the

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

 Somt Amu ofAcutt Conum tt 39

foodliulfxists.sochjthungfrinljrgtarusof iheworldLsbuld symplomof

ihr bdsic problfm al povcity. [[ Is trur [hat mor? pfopte are betng fed
adcquitely Kxliy dun In our base yeir of IMS. NevcrtbeJnSr In absolute
icmu, hunger conUnucs \a grow.
The coexistence of gliiE and famine seem^ intoJenble dnd gives rise to

problems In counrnci which hsv^ surplus food as w«IJ as In dw bod-dffldt

countrlcSr En the fonner, difficulties related to surplu^csn mb$idics ^nd the
needs of the Fumers are Foimldable. The largest food reserves available for
export exist In Nordi Anieilca, with die food -deficit counthes depending on
the success of hirvests In that counu;. Given the continuation of the piesent
pittcmi of jgrlcuTrural producUon. die miln deficit ams at dw end of the
century w[J] be the Middle East and North A.frlca. and sub Sahjran Africa
I
where a sbortfillof skxty millloniont of cfrrcai^ pci annum isoumatedr)
&u[ will die present pattern! pcralsd The droughts of ]9UicntAhock wives
through die world food syaiem. Thedroughttn the United States appears to
have been die mosi severe ever recorded, with grain proiductjon falling bcSow
donnestic requirements for the frrst dme^ Food producikin In the US fell by 31
per cent and Ln Canada b^ If per cent. The deficits were made good by
drawing hconaccumubtedstodts. fn^m which the terms of export contracts
with about d hundred countries, dut depend on food Imports from North
America, were also sdtisfiedr This led to a dramatic fall In the lotaJ world food
reserves. The questlcm thus arises as to what would happen If sImJiar droughts
were to occur frequendy. It Is prematuretoattrlbutethelQ&S drought, which
also affected miny Other pam of die w{3rld, to global vrarming.bQC die even!
was a clear warning of the vukerabifity of food production ta changes In

climate.

Unul aboui IWJ, Increase In agricultural production came mainly from the
extension of larxl under culdvalton. Thereafter, a nnasslve Increase was
achieved bj' die use of chemical fertlUzers. Thus agriculture no longer
depends solely on die availability of current solar energy, but ruw relies
considerably on fossil fuels— the stored solar energy of past aeons. It takes
approKlmaiely a ton of oil or Its equivalent in natural gas to produce a ton of
nin^ogenous fertilizer. Petroleum Is also necessary for the manufacture of
weed and pesticides whth are twed cxicnsively in modern agnculturc,
kitlers

aswellasfortllLageand the operation of Irrigation pumps During the period

IWO-Sfi, the average per capta consumption of fertilizers, rose from 5

kilograms lo lit bllograms while at tbc same time die area per capita devoted
to the cultivation of cereals dropped from 0,24 hectare to 0.15 hectare. Thus, m
a crude sense, die gieaf Increase la world food prod^Kdon represents dtc
conversion af oil Into edible cereals via the phoiosynthctic process.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

40 • The Firft Gi&hailUvoitutm

Today, agriculture In the tiadlQoiul sense hurdl; exists In many para of die
world, kha^ become j sector of industr)', relying on technoJo^taJinnovjcion

and modem mdnagccnentrncthodsJlkcanrathCflndij&tiidl sector. Uke^se,

bodiiwerand producen oftnecgy. has to be CLsriEldeccd as an
agriculture, as
clemcTHof the world energy syiCcm.FuCurcicardty of Oil, or the highcofl of
It. or coDstnlnts on iu use forced b-y global warnili^ would JnhlUt the
productkm of food and gready raise food prices at a when the conOnuJng
time
growth of world popuhDon will result tn the demand For more and more
food, LI Is certainly desicable to reduce the energy Inpuc tn agriculture, and
much hard thinking Js ncccisary to acccniln the cxian lo whkcb "otganit

farming" could saorfy the food rcqulrcnwnts of present arxl hiiure populanooi.

In MfGko, according to Infbrmatton provided by tlie Xoctilcaftl

FourxldClor,19,000 kcal hdve lo \x used In order lo pul 2,200 kicaL of

fo^ on ;]k? Idlflc. From anoclier anglci Llie amount of e-;ier^
OXISUined In irar^inrrlns rcDd^tuFfs In Mexico Is ^Imo^r equ^l CO ttie
total enefgy fHlui™! by ihe primary leaor For fcod producilor. The

^M (hat ^Lidi situations ^rf wnskieieJ w be poWivf te, MiJ*iu«**yi

a ccffKCptual aberr^ilon.

Manfred Mas-NeeF
"Human 'kile for Developmwf
In
CEPAUR-Djg Hdmmai^lold Foundaifon

Another potential danger to agrlcultunl sustalnabllliy is the wklcspread

degradation and erosion of soil. Soil erosion Is a natural process, but when Its

rate exceeds du: of new soil CormatKinp there ts a decline In the fertility of the
land, iris estimated thai this is the situation jn approximately )5 per cent of the

world's aoplajids, In drought scrKkcn nca. overpopulaicd icgion^ ^nd In

nuny regions such as the Sabcl bi Afhca, recent years have witnessed maigUul
anble land turning Into arid ratigeland and then to desert. In the caBe of the

North American 'bread basket', unsuitable soili have been forced into

production and good soils mined' to meet du: ever liKreasIng demand Ibi

loQti h^om QM^ide. Enormom imounis oEferdEe topsoil arc waal>cd away into
the rivets by rain every year all over the world.
Intensive agricultural practices, such n diose of the Green Revolution,
demand a nnuch grejler use of waUi dun do the [j^dsTiOh^l rn(th<xls. AJ a
result, ground water leveU are tilling In many areas, causing doubt as to the

long-ierm9UStalnabl]lty of these f radices. Improved irrigation facilities have

provided water In many aild f^aces. ofien with spectacular resulis^ But
Irrigation has often led to the sallnailon of soils with the destruction of their

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 Sotne Araa ofAcute Concern # 41

Frrtilky. "Hils how fwt, only onff If mfnl In [he approaching crisis in glolul
is,

wdter ivalbblllty. DomBtk: demand for water incrc^^s rapidly* 3s economic

growth IS achieved. In addition, many jndiujija] tedinoJoglcs require vjst
anuunts of water. Acuic water problems are caused by the growth of the
dtle$, especially those bciili in arid regioiu, unsuinablc for large urban
populations. Finally uv must irrcss again the immint^nr danger of the
contaminailon ot aqulFers by the difFu&ion of coxk: and radioactive wastes.
Special n^enUon should bcmadeof some of the dlstDiiions caused by the
intiltianon ot Western iifestyles and needs Into some of the developing
countries. In many places, and especially In the African cities, food habits have
changed compIeLely, partly beciuse of thrivaihbiEicy af famine relief Ecod
supplies or low ptkcd food imports from Western countries.Thus bread has
become popular in areas whkh are unsuitable foi wheat farming, and rice ji
gready in Javour despite the high water needs foi its culQvaiiDn. This
tendency is much to the detriment of traditjoraal food crops and has reduced
the IncenOve for local farmeis to inacasc ihdr production of these crops
while the productton of plantation crops in continuation of die ptacticcs of
col<inlal times is useful in earning foreign eiichange, it is obviously unwise If

carried to excess m counlnes with Insufficient food for domestic consumption.

This is especially the case where large areas are devoted to the growing of
c^nlc feeds for uk in die fwd atuntcd West,

The long-term consequences of demographic change are incKtrrcably

linked with future world development and harmony. The industrialized
counities wjdi chelr ageing populations should go some way co^^rds
mainralning living standards widi a reduced work force, because of
automaDon and the considerable Increase In productivity that it will generaie-

However, Ehe substantial Inrrnsp in chf number of eldnly people will be a

great burden on the pension funds and on the health and welfare systems.
Someof these countries are turning to pro-natalistpoUcles, bul,asyet< have
met with litde success. Considerable structural adiustments will have to be
made in these coui^uies because ofdie shrinking numbers in the educational
insciutlons and the need for the exiensicn of tnealih and welfaif scEvices for
the elderly, the Latter expense compensated for pardy by reduced
expenditure on child health care. Although only a small prt)portit>ii of the
population will be within the formal teaming system, great effon^ will have to
be made ta improve its quality: success in the post- industrial society will

dqpciKl critically on the quality of human resource development. Flexible

and selective means will have to be found for lateretirement soas tomake

Auteursrec Intel ijk beschermd materiaal

42 • The Firtt Giobal Revolution

available the skills af iMtt people sUll capable of conoibuting slgnlRcandy to

sociciy. The agc-imbaLince' pfoblem can be legaided as a sign of success In
family pbnnlng. \i Is a temporary phenomenon and can be planned \ox In
advance. In Sweden, wheie these problems M/cre hrsi recognized, the
siluiEton Is now jn controL

For ihe IcH developed countries, the problems are quite liie rcversf In
.

most inscances, the growth of the cconom7 and the climinaiion of poverty
will have to be the nuLn Dbjectivn of developing economics. Thks means 3

lype of growth that respeo; and I; huilt on ihe tradirtonal culture rather than

being a slavish imliauon of the mdEcriallsigrawifaoi ifat North, which would

inevitably induce die sdrtiemaldisc from which ihcindumiallzedcountilcs
now suffer. Too great an Inaease in the population can be a fa ul amwralnton
development, [n many cases already, development plans are unrealistic
because of Insufltclem attenlton being given to this factor.

Here, however, we are more concerned about the progression of the

North $9uih demogiiphic dispaiiCn, By dx middle of die next century,
inhabitants of the presendy Industrialized countries will consdtuce well under
!2Dpe[cenlof the world population. Isllfeaalblechacin the future, the world
-^ill consist of i ghetto of rich nations, ^lAud with sophisticated weapam,
prorecctng themselves against the vast multitudes of hungry, uneducated,
unemployed and mgry people outside? Such a scenar]o, which js a
suppostuon based on present trends. Is unlikely. World events which are
unforeseeable now will surely intervene. For example, by th^t Gme, several
ku devcbpcd countries will vo doubt poucu [belt own nucle^E weapons.
It Ls more likely that populaoon pressures, the lack of opportunkdes and
conditions of tyranny and oppression will have generated waves of migration
rotheNcinhandthe West, which will be Impossible ro contain. Our successors
are likely to see mass mLgrstions on jn unprecedented sciie. Such movements
have dlmdy begun, with the but people' migjating f^oiti the Fat £a^.
Mexicans slipping over the border into the United States, and Asians and
Africans migrating to Europe. Ii Is not difficult to Imagine at a future date,

innumerable hungry and desperate Immigrants landing m their boats on the

northern shoresoftheMcdlteriancan. Similarly, massive migration from Latin
America ro the Unlred Srates Is to be expected, while populaUon pressure m
Chinamay cause spillovers Into empty Siberia. As we have already suggested,
the rising of the sea level as a result of the greenhouse effect could greatly
increase mi^Dori pressures, for example In Bangladesh and Bgypt.
k IS therefore urgently lequiieJ that the economic conditions In the poor
countries arc improved, and thai at the sarne time effective means of

population connoE jre Introduced. We would like ro stress that leduaions in

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd inatenaal

 Some Areas t^Acule Cfmam * 43

economic dispaiicy and did 0:1 development oF > wl&c and cooperative
character, rather dun d mere humaniaridn g«<uf« ^uJd be o£ fundamenal
impoTUnce to the rich countries in their own inierest^ Thi^ is hardly
understood by the general public In die Industrialized a>iintrlesjnd, until It is,

tb? pollnduisare unlikely tout. Heveriheless, it li clear that no nKdsures wlU

dhnivcly stop the migrstion trends. This could induce a sharp rise In
defensive ridnn in ttv lecelving oHuiinn and encouiage ihe emetgence t^i
series of tigbiwkngdictacon swept In by popular vote. Such situations rmnsi
not be allowed 10 develop. Ii Is therefore very Impoztai^t, to prepare the
populations of die rich counules to Kcepc this- reality.

The- In/itrmatum SoctcPy

The emergence of the Inforrnatlon or Post-Cndustrlal Scxiiety has been one

of the main agents of planetary change ^ If It is wisely guided and It's problems
are tackled in Cme, this development can make possible many irnpiovt^mcnCi
Ln the hiim^n randioon. We have already dfKrlbed the developmfni: of
mictoelectronics and how its appJicjEion^ are penetrating ev^ry aspect of
domestic and Industrial life. Here we are concerned with its economic, social
and political consequences.
The informatlOTL society ts based on developments which toe* place mainly
in the sciendfic arxl industrial lahoratorles of the countries of the Npith;
inevitably the revolutionary apphcaoons of microelectronics have flooded, the
markets of the industrialized countries. Our discussion of the consequences,
thetefore, has a iliOngly NOrlheirl' flavour. Microelectronics have not yet
made much of an impact in the developing counules, Nevertheless, these
innovations ate of great significance for the development of the South.
The development of mtcroelecironlcs brought about by the
rapid
invention of the silicon chip, which can contain millions of integrated circuits,
look pbce mainly in the Untied States and In Japan. Iti the former couriDy.
most of the research and development was undertaken in the laboiatoilcs of
relatively snull, sophlsocated firms [Silicon Valley) under ccv^tracts from the
US defence department and space agency. In japan, it was made possible by
cooperation between the large electrical enterprises and die government as
parEofanlmaginativclong term strategy ThcEuropcanscntcred dicfjeldata
later stage and are making great, but possibly Insufficient efforts to catch up-

Compeiitton in this area is particularly fierce,

Ir must be stressed at the outset that the coming of the post industrial
society does not mean that products In dally use, including those of heavy
indusn-y, will become less necessary In future, as some facik public
statements seem to Imply. Those engaged In handling informaiHin in the

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

44 • rfe Frni Global IlivolHtum

Fu lure will sUlE require houuiig, knives and forks and pbcci. a5 well a$ food on
their plates. There wlllpiobably be less people commudngH asmiichoflhc
work will l>e done ^chome on computers. They
probably asplte to the
will

independence given by the auUjmobllCp but, even should ca[3 be scaicc and
Fuel expensive, public iranspoTt will nccc^liK (hc m^niiFactuK oF buscfi
oalns and ships. In die InFormaiion socletv. Industry will ^nil flourish, but ITS

products will be provided by a much smaller pioporCon of the woikForee

than in The heyday of ih* 1ndu«rial eta, Tht tna^ority will be in the
InFormadcHi-handlmg Industries jnd the service sector, 3 trend that i& already
well established.

Technological development has had a sirong Influence on the nature and

behaviour of society ever since die shaping of die first film or bone tools The .

type oF society we jre living in today is the reiuIiaFthf Industrial RcvQluQonp

and the advanced lechnologies, which are aJready modifying lifestyles and
ctiCadng new occupations, may have an even greater eFfect The central
promise of the information sodcty through the widespread use of
microelectronic devices In Industry and the service sector, ts inacascd
manpower pioduciiviiy. ft ^uLd become posslhir to provide all ihr
ret^ulrcmcnis of s country— Including dxjse of industrial pioducOonH
agriculture, defencen health, educadon and wcJEare— and ^n acceptable
standard of living for everyone with only a fracOon oF the physial effort
expended today. No country will be able to Ignore che$e devcEoprrtent^ or
slow down their acrualizadcm. Todoso would mean forgoing iheir potential
beneflu, as well a» risking economic losses In InteirutlonaE rrade. But the
extent, depth and unforeseeable social consequences of these developments
make nwasary ro look well beyond the present d«ade in in iiiemp to
it

ensure their expbiDbon lot the maximum benefit to all. If diis Is not done
and developments are planned merely on the basis of medium term gains and
narrow vested Interest, governments will try to absorb social artd other
consequences by marginal adjustments of eTisflng social models and policies

Id jn ati^mpt to eliminate crisis ^LtuaEions when they become acute. It would

be ttrcsponsible to leave such developments, wbch aaj be of fijndamental
importance to liie bealiii of society, exclusively to the operadon of the market
forces with their Inevitably short' term signals.

[I is not passible at this stage to predict liv consequences of these

icchnologial mnovadons with any accuiicy, but some trends are already
visible^ [n the Informadon society, interdependence between counoies will
increase through the Immediate visibility of infoimaOon It will lead to z
greater complexity of InsniuHons and societies. It could enable the acquisldc^
of a h^ degree of power jnd assist In the decision- makmg process, but it

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

 Sfmif Arras ofArute Cmam • 45

couJd fqually wtll help unscrupulous leaders lo consolidate power lor

ibemselwi. There will be the means, far more effccOvcthan the best efibns

of secret police, for the electronic control of everyone's acDvidcs by 'Big

Brother' dictators and societies.

TedinoLogIca] developments tend to increase the vulnerability of sodety

and this Is piniculaHyso In the cue of decfrotilf devif«. Power ranons, oil

refineries, nuclear iCKtors. communicsUor centres- banking networks and

ddta banks all have nerve centres which are of relatively easy access to those
with the intent of sabotage or political terrorism; these activities are themselves
becoming more dangerous as more sophisticated techniques become
available. A computer 'virus' an spread rapidly through large systems jnd
totally disrupt their operation J. An expen electronic saboKur could pcnenate
and hopelessly disrupt the whole International banking, network
The deeper soclaS and psychological consequences of die informauon
society are still more difficuli to discern, in a strongly technology based
cuIlutc, d>ert will always be t dichotomy beween d>:« who undcnisnd lis

wotrkjngs ar^d those who merely press d)e buttons, it is, of course, not
necessary to understand electronic theory in order to en)oy leleviiion. But
when the use of die miaoprocessor spreads lo make black boxa' out of
nearly all the equipment and anelacls of life, the sophisticated know-how of
the tewp who invent new machines and create the »ttwarcp
and design the
will havesoaredbeyondfhecomprehemicfliofthemajorlty. Then wemjvbe

faced with a sharp distmctlon between the mirKirlty who kiHW diid ihc
majority who do not know. The emergence of a priesthood of scicnusis,
lechnologlsu ^d rechnociats is hardly desirable, and Its prevencton must be
one of the obfectives of educational reform.

We come now to theareaof controversy that dorrunates the discussion of

the Information society, namely the problem of employment^ The
attainment of full empiaymFm is still seen as a ma^or economic and iocal
goal, but in Its consideration, the influence of autorri^CLon ^nd tedinologlcai
change is seldom given much weight-
There arc those who argue thai the future course of informatbn
technology and the auiomatlofi It makes possible will follow the frertds set by
earlier innovations m creating new products, new indusQies. new markets
and hence generating economic growthr This will provide replacement
empbymeni for those laid off by Industries with shrinking labour
requirements. CXhcis feef that the situation is ioherendy different from earlier
technological developments and that we are likely to see econoni^kc growth

1 SccSctuff jndFrfcdncha, lOS?

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 .

46 • The Fe^ CioJjaJ Rnvlutum

wiihour iubsutiu^i pb cteauon,

Thl& qucstkin must be considered, not onJy with tcgard lo poj^blf jab
redundandcs, but tUo to (he general mahise oF induscrtd socictic^ In the
industrialized countries, tainumerable indlvldujls find hnlc ^aii^facdcei In (heir
work, even though diey hav« been liberated from the crude siruggie for
exliience by the bounbtt of the wdEire saw. Tbttc people often give In toa
soueofworthressnes^ -afeeltngoEbelrgu^ele^^losodctyandtadi^msclvn.
Dignity, selF-re&pect ^nd a sens? of purposf are hnK psychologicat needs
which aie dl^uh to provide In the Industrial and urban mllJeu and
this malaise ^^uld spread If Large scale unemployment were to arlsc^
[| Is pvldmt that extensive automation in (^ manuiaciunng indum^ is

boi^nd to cause many redundancies, eEpecially -ofmanual workers-

unskilled
It Is equally clear that as the new icchnoLogle? spread, new Indusnin will
sppear. providing new jobs,many of which will demand new skills. The
balance between these two movements Is the cridcsl question. Over a long
period H docs seem CCTtaiPh hQwcvcTj that the labour force required for the
efficient r^^eracion of industry will b< greatly reduced In size unless new
markets can be found. Markets for many goods In the affluent pans of the
woi-ld are ipproachii^ saturation leveh, so substantial expansion can onl^ he
eipected if the population o( the developing legions can pniuide a mass
market for capital and consumer goods. This, unfortunately, seems
improbable in the near future.
One argument in favour of automation holds that die massLve numbers of
redundant woikci^ from m^nufjouilng induscilcs would be mopped up by
an expanding service sector. The analogy here is wiiii the decline in the

proportion of the active workforce engaged In agriculture m (he advanced

countries lo as low as 4 per cent over the last two centuries. This was the result
of i decrease in manpower employed on farms due to mechaniiation But
migration from die land did not cause unemployment as chc growing
Industrial secrorwasablecoabsorb the rural unemployed. Historical analogies

can be misleading when the circumstances are not ejiact parallels and that is

the case with the pre5cn( transition, because industrial and service sectors are
undergoing automation simultaneously. Itisver^Lmprobablc that the labour
force laid off by industry can be absorbed by the service sector as it exists

today Rather, n die information society evolves, we must expect to see a

gradual coming together of productive ard service functions and a

rombinarion of these m thf future occupatnns of the average Lndiuidual

Concepts of employment, unemployment, underemployment and leisure
are heavy with moral and historical values involving the work ethic, and some
of these words ate used peioraiivcly When large numbers of people are no

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 Samt Areas ttfAdivte Cotifon • 47

longtr TpqulTsJ by mdustry^noc as 3 con^qucEtcrot cyclical [luciiudoii&. but

becauic sockcy demands and tcchnolc^y makc^ possible very high lewis of
znuipcwcr productivttjp (h?n ^^se mqia\ and bi^toiical values lose iheir

mdldanal meanings, [i Is suggeited thai, Inihefuiure, the cblct concern of

the individual may be leu unm^lo^cnt as we have undersiood lE in the pasin
but 4(ciqutUH in the Uiget wm^. It will KmirAj influde time speni In
paiticipaOng In die economic activities oF sodety, for which cich individual
will be idcquatcly paid, but will also consist of" activities, sclf-cbosen, which
will provide personal fulfillment. Thus ilie occupabon of die individual will

hdv« to be seen a^ includlrbg only d small propoitlon of inCellectuaL or

ptoducuvc ^mpioyment in xn&iuomi xnx. Prc&utnably this miJn

the
occupation aIII cake up a much smaller pan of life plater entry into the wofk
force, sbotwi working bourSn earliei retirement, peiiods off for furthci

education arxl reorientation,] and together with one or several subsidiary

occupations or crafts— eduattonaln sodaL utistlc or sporting— shmtid piovlde
Individuib wldi enough work to intcrot ihcm and enoiigh. Icliurc for

relaxation.
Such a stiuatlon will not develop on Its own. If thousands of workers,
especially thousands of young people. Etnd themselves unemployed and
burdened with a seemingly endless leisure, they will be doomed to
frusQitkjn. Theirtcz dmc will be lihen up ai best wtih cclcvis^ viewing
and pUyIng football More often the pollution otldsure wUl be expressed In '

alcoholism, drug addiction, hooliganism and delinquency. A new approdch

will have to l>e oeaied by sodecy Itself and will involve extensive changes in

the educatioitai &ynem and In the disnributjon of wealth.

The above scenario is not is- Impobable or as exaggerated as it may seem at
first sight. If automation in offices and factories does Indeed create Intractable
probierru of unemployment, and if the labour unions accept that they cannot
fpjra the pfOgi«s& of juiomadon in the face of imematlonjl compeiitEon.
negotiations will follow, resulting an equitable distribution of work widi
In

shorter hours, and the provision of other meani of occupation. Measures will
have to be talen to provide sodally desirable occupations on a voluntary basis.
This will make the Increasing ejttent of free lime bolh creative and satisfying,
arvl [ransfotintheiniormaLion society 3I1L0 [he occup^uon^l society. Thus the
Indusn^lzed world would be eniermg the golden age in which machines
will work for m rather than dommate ua.
This rosy picture of what could happen in die North Is ^r froEn teallzatton
In the South, The developing countries are, indeed, beginning to benefit from

the recent spread of the appUcattons of microelectronics. Electronic

communications. Including [hose diat use satelhte links, are already

Auteursrec Intel ijk beschermd materiaal

48 • The Fint Giohal Eivoluatm

connecting the majn centres of the <i«vebpJTiEfDuniTiKH'irh ^t^e^rrhf

industrialized countries, alrhough Inirmj] communKution n? cworb Mt ui

mosi cases tudimcntaiy as a consequence of poveny.

Ukewj&c, computcEs Jic gndiully Filtering In, noc only as a part of the
global network, a In the case of airline bookings, but also in tht offices of
governmcnis and cnterprljcs. Howcvan although the advanced icchnokigtci
atr beginning lo appear In the Industries of ccnuntrkes such as India, BtulL and
MEXICO, they hatdly exist In the pooi-er developing countrlei^ Thj& Is Indeed a
cidsiic example of how technological innovaOons Inevlublf favour those
counnles that aie already advanced to the reladve dctrlmeni of those at an
rarlier suge, fn the absence of a subaiandal Indusitlal Inftascruaurc and
facltJTtcs for using ^lence and technology, pcnetra-tioa of the advanced
fechnologjo Is ncccsarily vcty sbw.
It has Iwen suggested that rapid development in the South might be
achieved by leap fi oggtng over the traditional stage of IndusQiallzadcsn by
ucuratlng the developing coiintnes with computers. Wc fcci lihat SUCh an
approach is undesirable. Unemployment and underemployment are rife In

thrse countries. The advanced lechnotoglcs are noc UbouT-mtcnslvc and

would create few iobs- They are. instead, capital-intensive and capital is a

scarce commodity In the South- Further, as these technologies are owEied by

the corporations of the North, such a scheme would Induce a deep seated
technological colonialism. Nevertheless, paitnership between the
industrialized and die developing ccunnlcs must be gteady encouraged to
m^ke sure that the lanet jre not fenced to indusnialize, leading [o ibe
establishment of obsolete ar^ uncompetitive economies.

The pnablems oE environment, energy. popuUtiora. food availability and

development form an imcrpcncttddng complex within the probleniuTiquc
which IS the source of present uncertainty about our future. Theimponance
of the interactions is such that it would make liitlc sense to tackle each of dieic
elements separately, Jt Is, however, beyond the capabilities of the nadon state
lo do otherwise. Thus what Is needed Is a simultaneous amck on all (he
elements within a cwfdinaKd wofM sintcgy. The succch or failure d the
flrstglobal revoluttondepcndsessendallyonthls.Theconfllcts of the coming
years will irlse out of this complex of issues, Sotncof these have already been
mendoned. We jhall only add oncothet example In relation to increasing
scarcity of water. Some UNEP {United Nations Environmental Programme)
officials foresee the possibility of tntemal disputes wjdi regard to the use of
water of eighteen different elvers. An acute caic Is that of the itomlnation by

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

 StffBi Arcai ofAtiule Comem * 49

Turkty of ihr b«dwattrs of ihr Euphralps on which jII of S^rla and a pjic of
Iraq depend. Confltcis over these waters could very easily ddd one imre
dangerous complication lo th^ Middle £^^1 situation.

These mancrs arc bdng discussed wparatcij' and scvcrall;^ cvcTTwherc,

Conferences on earth^warmlng and on envliorunencal Issues- in general are
common. Heads of suie discuss OBOoe layer det^etton and the greenhouse
effat. hui 3s yei no poliDol leader has had ihe courage lo clearly ourJlw the
consequences, nor Is dicrc iny cxptcssed acknou/ledgemeni of die
tntcracilon oEcnvlronmcnQl issues and ibc need for a compichcmlve attack.
Political action is llkel;^ to Follow only from the Impassioned demands of an
Informed public.
 3. The International Mismanagement of the
Worid Economy

Among the nain uas of concern, the fipld changes Jn the world economy
deserve special attcndon. This chapter provlda a brief and selective overview

of the main Issues afFecdng the world economy today, Eocus^ed on Xey
countiks and groups of counain. USA Jdpan, the EuEopean Cocnmunlty the
, ,

devejopinf; counoies, and eastern md central Europe.

THE UNrrm ^'atts c# ak^rica

Thai »« ndlally dldermt ?letv& about the state of the US ecooomy,

Influenced by the relive importance given Co different aspects of a complex
simabon. This eKpLdins in part why Ir has been so dlffkuJt for them to achieve
action on problems, even those which are widely accepted to be sezjous ones
such as the budget defldt.
At fliHH tbcic ippcai to be many posidvc ekmenti: ihc U5 economy' has
beengrowlng^leadilyforseveiiyears, now at an annual n[e of around 2.fl per
cent. Mllllt>ns of |obs hive been created, and unemployment [^.2 per cent]
and Inflabon (4.^ pet cent) are low, CNPpci capita \i around USS 20,000, and
theeconomy Is tunning near capadry. at the nic d ^4.U trillion pet year
Ftnm an decCOTal poini of vtew, dils Is alttwac an idcaT situation.
However . there IS deep ct^Kem diroughout the world —and In the United
States Itself— about the conditions under which thl^ aduatichn has been
achieved , and about wbethei k can be sustained. For our purposes, these
concerns can be grouped around the following four main issues^

1 Tlv following Bgurts lix the Unncd Sam and |ipA air ofbdal IWO bguro.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

DmoCi^ li^iEfJia. In spiif oh fptatnJ efforts jradinlerTuEionjlcommilmmt^.
dicafinual US budgfld^ftcttcondnupsalaboull 14D billion. Thir cumulative
cEtcct oE dils annual deficit is now 3 national dfbt approaching t ) trIllloD,

having ns^n from jpproKimately 1 900 billion In lOSi. Entcrat paymrnts on

this dfbi iK now a major jErm m the budgi^t, and ihac uc. of coiine,
iffcaed by increji« in inwrest iJies. In pjrallel with the growth of niDoiul
dcbi, Indebitdn^ss has also incrcafcd in oihcc ^mon oi de cconamy—
bods^hold^H business and banking. Business debt is some $0 per ceni higher

[haci noimal CNP. while majoi banks aie seriously

in relation to affected,
paitty rhiou^ leveraged bui^ouLs and Third World katm.

}ii!inatma\ [ndc^uinea. Over (he span oF a Itw yens, the United Siatei hat

ceased CO be the weald's largest ctedlcor, and become die world's largest

debtor. Th^ddldlDiicurrmc account is jpprojiiniAiely 1120 billion per ycit,

md rhexcujTiulated eitemal debc Is over i ^ btUkm and rising sreadJl;, The
[MP expects dut die cuirem account deficit MW worsen again neit yeai, to
around 1 140 blllkin. The dollar has weakened In the last few yearsn and the US
Ititcmal defkltn coupled with the tzade dchciin contiibuies to that process.
The UnlKd snm payi \a 'ci«ira\ debc' In US dollais, which c^cnttally
means that 11 forces aedltors to accept a ojtterK^ that ts steadily weakening.
This rnay be good for US expotts, but Is damaging 10 hotden of US assettn and Is

alsodamaging lo countries ihai earn 3 large propottitfff of chei^ fordgn

exchange from exports of goods and services to the US- In addition, fof die
first time since l^A. the second quarter of 1Q££ showed a deficit on trade In

services, thus adding to the payments needed lo service this international

debt.

Such imbalances areafactof Intern^tionaTeconomicllfe. bii[ the scale and

rate of growth of che US current jccounl deficit li impreceden[ed. A
^ubatjntjdl reorient^Lioii ol the US economy Vii\\ be nccctsu]^ to ratieci il,

and uEtimatety, 10 create a level of sutplus tieeijed to service

, Its accumulated
International obTlgaEkms which could exceed S 1 trilbon,

Thus the trade defldl U In fact a very serious problem. However, It Is

Importanitsrecogrrlzethailt Isltselfa symptom of other problems. Eta prime

causes ire the subject of heiicd debates For some UoKh ir was constdcrwl to
be primarily the resuJt of a strong dollar. However, after the Plazj agreement
and the decline of the dollar, its primary cause was considered to be an
'unlevel pbying field, or unfair practices by US trading paiinen, pantcuLarly
the Japanese ^ It Is now tncreasinglf lecc^nized that the trade defldtis mainly

the Jesuit of excess consumpijon in USA» flnaiKcd by breign borrowmgs, dnd

a decline In the compel! liveness of American goods and services.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

52 • The Fmt Global Repf^tttien

EihiCJiQiifl, m^SKlaTaHd P%]fid iKfiBfFnufvrf. There ts a growing reall^tiCFn In the

Uniicd SaK5 [hai ihc economic growih whtch made American? fef I good
aboui ihcinsclvc^, has bc^n accompanied by ihf accumul^Eion of seriouj
social wd phy«oL probiem$. While the drug pcoblem is the focus of public
coocctn, there U a mbstandal agenda of problems yet to be soived. Sf^ne {
dicK, whkfa will icquEie actentkin and cxpendltutc In due course are
impiovlng educailDn to meet the needs of a compctnivc econotn^p problems
of urban poverty *rd. growing racial ieTislO[i, hcallh CWC, a dcaylng physical
Infrastruciiire and environmencal ptoblems. io:^ic and nuclear pollunon. and
so on>

T^ SronVi Tnp, One af the main elements which deietnnines die bilanclngot
the US budget is defence expenditure, which stands atiround U^S $co bii lion
per year, or 7 per cent of the US'CNP. A substantial pact of this expendnure
serves to support the strategic oblectJves of the tInJted States and its allies

diroughout the world. Now that USA is facing ccfmomic dlffnulties, and
conipedng bead on with councies whose Kcurity it guarantees, thcec md}ar
queftk^ns h»ve arisen^
First, can USA afford to devote sudi enormous financial and human
lesouices to Jts own miliary security at a time when urgmt economic a^
soclj] problems threaten IQ future? StcocA. why *haijld USA continue to
expend ic^urcei to Improve the security ol western Europe and [apan
twhichspcndsonlysllghtty mote than! pel cent of Its GNP on defence] now
that d>ey are in a posmon to afford more substantial defence cxpcndituies
diemselves' Tiiird. the foriy year confionaiion wldi the Soviet Union has
vimuilycndcd, [[dajnoianoppomitlH^toreduccdefenceenpendlmteand
use the roooirccs thus set free to suengLhen the competitive base of die US
economy and tackle accumulated sodaL and environmental pn^blemsr
There arc no easy answers to these questions The? demonsdate the

degree to which economic and secarity issues are totcrlinked, A serious

delHie Is now in pcogiess, espeoally after the Culf War, Ibcussed on the
underlying question of what constliuCes real secuiHy for the United States in
the modem world, [tisnolonger slm ply a matter of miUiaiy power it must
jurdy consist ofthe need ro maintain the economic and technological strength
of the counity, its political influence in the worldn aid the health of lis
rclauons with its allies. In the longer term, CLTnsideratlons of global energy,
environment, population and development are aUo components of real US
secuitty.

Thus, thr moit powerful and wealthy economy in the world is confronang
serious problems todajr, with the prospect of funiier substaooal and

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 MismoMOStment t^the Worid Eofruflny • 53

Innopjble dtnunds on i(s rcsourcps In thr fuiuic, [n die absence of new

poJicics, the dcllau will rcrciajn high, and die accumulatimi of dcbi will

thcou^ ptorcciioriiun and rrade win, voladllry of

continue. Sud) d jituaDoTi,
exchange rites jnd loss of canfidenC'e. wlU threaten woiLd Dade ztA die
monetary systems on whtch economic growth depends. It will become znore
and more difficult re gefwtaw dLSfwcioraTv resources, even for priOiTtty

purpose; such as the wu on drugs, d-ie improvement of education, or the

sQmulatkon of research, development and invesuneni. The primary catu« of
the probFems will thtrefote remain unre^lved.
WhaicvecpioposihmaybcnijdefoithelntematkinaTmanagemenlofdic
world economy m die tuiure , ii ihou^d be j prior condiUon [tut dK budget
deficit and trsdelmbalances which confront the U^ecofwmy today must be
corrected. Otherwtv. these will be a constant source of Insability and
tension, and a threan to world trade and monciary lystems. They will a^&o

llmtt the effectiveneu of die United States in world affairs at a time when tts

full participation wtll be bidly needed,

lAPAN
The most significant shift in the balance of world economic power in recent
yem has hern ifvemergeiveoi japan as an economrc superpower. The scale
and :pecd of diis thjnge is nmcLlmc^ lutd Lc comprehend, f torn LQ!^ to i^^
japan's total nai^nal asKis ruse from U51 19,6 triLlkm lo 141.7 trillion. During
ih1s same three year period, die total national assets of the United States
ciimbcd from LESS 30.6 trilliara to S 16. .2 trillion.

C^CD' estimates that the japineie &uiplus v/ill be S ^S billion In 1900. t V

billion In IW], and % Mt bllLton In im?. In comparison, die US deficit is

estlnuted to come down from 1 IID billion In 14A9 to 1 60 billion m 1992. The
International assets of Lapan may well reach 1 1 (billon in the mtd-mnedeir
The B^k of l^pjn IS Eiow rrspoci^ible for die world's brsest cash lekcrves, of
appTOximatcLy USS SQ billion. As an acior in the world economic system. It is

estimated that between January 1086 and |une 1087 the Baoik of ^apan spent t S7
blllkin 10 fotcc the decline of the dollat. Funhcr, japan is now the largest
proYldciofdcvelopmenia^sisiarccat i 10 billion annually, and iarhc second
largeitcooirlbucoriomulalattialltudtudonsfticha&dicWoildl^nkanddic
Internationa] Monetaty Fund.
lapanhas been providrng a large part ofthefu^s required each month to

finajice the US budget deficit through the purchase of Tica^iiry bonds ai the
rate of about S 10 billion per month. In addition, Japanese coipoiaiiom ate

B Oipmann foi European CooperaDon jnd DevclotNiKni

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

54 • Tbf Brti GioM Brvoiuam

inveitmg in USA -tor example Son^fPCfzitly purchased Columbia P)aurcfl

FnlcrtJinmeni for S 5.4 billionr In 1953. japincs? inwiesls bought real miK
worth 1 16.5 billion, and invested nculyl 13 biLlkm In virknu companies. En
i\\. \rpjin accounted tor jlmo^t 19 per cent of US c jpju inflow In I I9S7.

The kjng-[crm tnutesi irnzi hivi: iiicn ^haiply in japan, &om 4.8 jper cent
in ]«fi*ioafoicaii7,'9pcr cent ]nl5Ql and IWJ.whilf US rjifs have remained
broadly sobic it a^ouTkd B J pet cent and ait now lower In teal leims than ia

Japan-Oncrcasc^iscbcdctCTmlnatloiiortheBankofldpuitow-jtidbdck ihc
wild InHiticxi of issct pnc« while were siif^-jrting the cxpan^on of bank
knduig.
japan has consistently errhphaMzed te^atch and dcvelopnxnt, applied
mainly [onunofaciuring in the civilian scCLoi. The pioporUon of japjnsGNP
applied 10 R and Dbualnv?^ doubled In Ten ytan, from 2 per cent In 19S0, to
about J.5 per cent today. As an example of its vigorous technology. J^pf)
introduces each year as many industifal lobcis a^ the rest of the world
combined.
The political and economic system of japan ha$ twice demonstrated Its

ability to igjce on new objectives and Co teof^t ihe whole e<Dnoiny in a

veiT5borttlme;fintinresponielC)lheoiUhwkofl97*,iftdmotet«:ertly,m
an eflbit Co teduce rndc surpluses under the pcessaie ol iti trading
1t$

partners. Japan has begun to reorient its economy so js to inciedx domcsuc

consumption'
This ability to reach a oanscnsui. and to ^chJcve iciui] change m the

oricnution of the econocny li iu enormous asset fw japin In adapting to the

increasing pace of change In die imcnutiDnal etonomy. Fmancial Institutia™.
cotporaaonSn unions, the educadcm and research systems, and the
govemmenlitself— all seem to be able (o oichestr ate ttieitefbrts to achieve
broad naOonal goals. This capacity to jdjpi, coupled with then presets vast
finatKlal ic»ur«s, d dyrnmic icscatch and development system and a high ,

quality education system would sfem to guarantee an even stronger

economic standing for japan In the coming years.

Howevetn In sp(te of this tremendous strength, there arc reasons for

coEicemn not mereBy the fragilEty oE Hading relations and the changing
stfuctureof the Japanese papulation ^whichbythe year J020 will have ^4 per
cent ofits population over the age of65)butalso a gradual shih^n attitudes to
work and new expectations for Improvenient In the conditions c^ dally life,

especially tTut of the youflgtr gentraBon. These trends will gradually affect

the dynamics of the lapstiese eamomy but they ate unlikely to make a

substantia] change In its overall perfoimance. Jn the hclds of money, trade,

debt and development, and in its relations i^ith trading partners, japan's

Auteursrechteiijk beschermd matenaa!

 ,

ttadidonal arrttuiksH polldci and procedures will have to idapt to mcci Its

new rcsponajtiilLtJa 2S a nujoi inrc^iutioml puwcr.

IHE EllROftAN COMMUSm

In the early eighties, whkle the economics of ibc United ^uirs and lapan
eii)o^ japid «£parulMH it wa& fuhlorubif ro T^er to Eurosclerosis' , wiijch

affilosd Europe wlih liigh uwnipbymenr jnd slow growth. In icccot years
however, this sttuaOon has changed dramatically, because of three main
fcawm.
Pint, increasing worid trade, parWculaily thai resulting irom US economic
expifision, his provided i samuJus Co the groujEh of Etiropr^n rconomin.
Sccondn the new domestic economic policies adopted Ln rrxHt European
cDuntrkes have helped to improve eccxnmlc pciforniancer AihJ third, die
decision to establish a. unified European market by IW4 has already ptovlded a
substantial economic and psychological boost to EuJOpc It Is now the

Europeans who 'fccl good about ihemsclvn'. They arc engaged In the

process of European pttaUttki. unthin};abie only a Eevir years ago, whkh is

taking place it a rapid pace and with hr reaching results.

How h>i ihl! change come about, and what are Its imp licadKD^ Perhaps (he
most Important single came of this change was the EeellEig that unless Europe
u»k some nuiot inidadvci u> impcgvc ic ccomoedIc iod cechnolog^l
performance. It was doomed to fall noi only further behind the United States,
but also, and more pdrdaiiarly, behind Japan
Europe Is now on the move towards a unified market of over }?[) million
consumers In which there will be the relatively free movement of capital,
labour goods and services. This process
, Is already under way and most ma|of
,

coTpocatlonK and b^nk;^ are positioning themselves to take advantage of the

new situation through Investments, mergers and takeoven. Also, there has
bfpn i £UTgr of mvestmrnt in Europe by coufitil« outside die ODmmutiiCy,
parQcuEarly by Japan and the United States, so as to ensure that they ate not
subjea to discrimination as oucsldeis to the European Community.
This iniegratun among the nations of Europe is not j mere economir at

technocratic matter, Li has both hisiotlcal and political sl^ificance. As die

ptocesi of economic imcgrjttein progrcsKi. impoiunt polUJcai dedsjom will
betaken which wjildeieimlne the future shape of the European Community,
Its Institutions, and jts internal and external policies. Howevetn inany of the

most difficult issues still remain unresolved uid the final outcome of this
integradon is by no means clear.

The twelve member countries of the European Monetary Union have

reached a broad agreement on the fLiit phase of the IDeiors plan to work

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

56 • TlxFint Gl^baJ Rfvoiutvm

towards a moneary and economic union, and dijs praceis moved forward
dcclslvclT iltbc Midnd Conferenoc. Apan from ibc United Kingdom, there
Is, » least pro vi&loDally.jnjgrfrmeni ID work together to define iprocea for
an eventual single currency^
The rapid changes ukLnfphce In extern Europe are so profound thaithdi
future role IE shaping the EuropeinCommijnJtyaltcflW cannot be Ignored,
Among other mBuences, that of Comaii teunlfbcatlon will tian:^orm the
EiaiuTC of Europe and in icAt in the future. Whether the world econocny v^LI
reium to and malJicain a higher rate of growth will tlepetx] CD a considerable
extent on (he leadership, (he policie&j and die cooperation of the main
Gcofwmic poults- (be European Communtcyp l^pan ud dK United Satn,
New panems of coopeiatioji should be developed \a naeet ibe global
challenges of the coming decades.

THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

From die pomt of view of the managemenr of the world economy, die term
'developing couniries' Is iiuppropriite for operational purposes. This broad
grouping Etow covers such a wide range of countries that a more precise term

is needed, li i? useful lo dialysc 3 number of key issuu whicli wiU cldilfy dK

to\c of these countries In (be Iniemational econon^k seiup of the (uture^
Three such issues are debt, poverty and development, uid participation
in the world economy. Manyothcr approaches are possible, but the analysis

af ihrse issues doe^ lc:ad [o ii]S]ght5 into the future course of aciianr

Ddir The debt problem no longei i direct to the inucnKionji economic

i&

system gpven die provisions ncnv made by the ma)Oi banks and thcJr
teoijcntation away fmm iet^Jing to developing coiintiles (and In bet, the

greatest risks for banks today are related to ihcii domestic real estate lending)
Vui debt remaitis a ma)or domrsoc problem for (he developing cauntnes
themselves, especially in LaOn America and Africa. In the last two years die
Westerrb leaders have finally recognized that there exists the problem of
ovetlndehtedness. Consequendy, they have agreed to allow easier debt terms
for the poorer developing countries which are making efforts ( Improve their
ccorwmic mjnag<!rr>eni (the so called 'Toronto tetms' agreed on in 15S51

Secondly dicy have put in opciation a Kbcmc ^(he B»ady plan }

, (0 reduce the
debi burdensoflhe larger debtors such as MexKO and Brazil. These are major
5ieps lorwaid, but they cIcaHyrKcd to be pursued widi greater urgency md
will need more r'CsouiCes d^O Ire CurtCriCJy pTOUtded
Thcgrowdioftheworldeconomyasa whole was nearly 4 per cent in loss,
but diat of Latin America was only $ix tenths of 1 percent. During diat year.
Latin American debtactually (ell slighdy. from Usi 441 billion to S ^16 billion.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

 .

Misrna^ui^ementqfthe World Eamomy • 57

as i result mainly o( debt to equity conversion. However, over the nexl

[wdvc monrhs ul] March IWO, the dcbi sctvice burden grew by S 10 Irrilllon,

iimply 3i a result of i J per Cent rise in anternatlorul Interest rwfs. The cost of
debt service each yeu Is InBuenced by Inieresr rates and the value of che
dollar, and, as Is evident, both these awe beyond &k control of the counciJes
conccmed-
This dangerously unstable sItiutlcKi does not seem to elidi the clo$e
attention which it utgcntly deserves. The problem- if unattended, may well
undermine the future piospccis of the wotld economy for several reasons.
First, a number of major US banks, although they have t-educed cheir lending
to developing countries arc Jtlll carrying sabiuntlal amounts oi developing
country loans In relaOon to their cipiCaL Second- since IW, the developing
couniries have been transferring money to die developed counmes. a "net
neganve transfer' of repayments In excess of new The amount of
lending.
[his transfer was over US( 50 billion in 1^. Compounding this problem,
the total flow of direct foreign Invciirncm to developing countries has fallen
from 1 25 billion In IQS] to t M bkllion in \9&7.
Thus, V a amc when the (leveloplng councries urgently need resources,
there Is a substantial net flow of these from poor to rich counines aiKl, m
effea, the developed debtor countries, prnculariy the United Slates, are
competing tor resources with the developing counctlei, This is inequitable,
and represents a tiemendous wj^te of human ind economic potenual.
Indeed, the abrupt decline ist dieecoriomiesof Latin America boomeranged
and resulted in a substantial decLne in exports and employment in USA
On Its own, the Indebtedness of the developmg countries constitutes a
serious and growing threat to cheeconomicar>dpoliUal stability of the world,
but the debt problem must be seen in the conicxi of the other serious trade
and financial imbalances in the developed countries. In this petspeaivc, the
present internattonal manjgenn^nt of the world economy seem^ very
inadequate, and the hopeful and reassuring prospects ol steady economic
growth seem doubtful.
New resources will also be needed on a substantial scale ro stimulate

development at a time when there are new comprtm^ claims, for example
hom Cd^rn Europe ^nd fiom the countries diiecily aEfecied by the Gulf
aisis. [t isalso essential thatthe access ofthe debtor countries to che markets of
the North be maintained and expanded. If protecuonism Increases tn the
North, thjs will greatly aggravate the debt problem, as it has in the past.
Devefoping a viable approach to the debt and development problem will
requLrc i far more cohecent litikage of policies and JnstlEiitions concerned with
fjnancial management ^EMFl, wlthinvestmem and development (the World

Auteursrechtelijk beschsMTid materiaal

SS • The Fins CtohalBiv^uium

Bulk], and mdc iUMCTAD'. CATP), This will be i chaUcnge lo the world
communiiy* demmdlng imaginaiivt cooperative cffons by Ac United SawSn
Europe and Japiii, In si^te of Insdtuttonal reliKtancc. policy objectives and
action In such IniciLlnked hcLds as finance, debi management, InvestmcnT.
dcvcic^mcni policy, human resource development, nade, andcnvironmcni,
muji be made more coherent
PhittIy dnJ dodopmeiiL' Another Isue, even more threatening to ihe world in

[h« long tenn than debt, is liiat of poptibtkin growth, poverty and a decline In
the level of development in many countiies of the South such as Bangladesh,
Burkina Faso^ndtbiij.
Perhaps Inevtobly, the arrendon of pobddans, busin«s leaders,

intellectuals and the public in the developed countries is focusscd on issues

that immediately a^ea their welfare. The long term implications of the

piesent aei>d in the world economy— increasingly divided and polarized

between a jmail pctccnogc of the ilch tpcrhaps ?0 pci cent in 2025] and a
much larger percentage of poor and underptl^lcgcd ponple - seem too far

away to worry about, but tfify are not. Apare from ethical considerations,
which seem to have a very limited motivaUaul force, two implicadom are
likely to become evident ^irly soon.
Snanumherof poor counukej.governmenrs will be^n [o respond to the
intense pressure cEeried on them hy their populaQons, especially by the
frustratedyouth, which will increasingly be concentrated in vast cities. There
IS no reaun to expect that they will act in accordance with the norms of
behaviour established predomlnand^ by Wcsicmeis when they laid the
foundationsoftheJnLematlond system forty years ago. After scores of United
Nations resoluuons. North-South dialogues and contererKes, with lew
positive results, they may well decide to move towards codromadon. That
may be ilingial or CLUstly would be Ittclevani
thi& to thf political realities at
work History offers many such examples^
In these conditions, the comfortable assumptions of international studies
would no longer apply. At b«st, only the delicate network of iniematlonal
travel, health and security conuob. diplomatic couricsles, business, and
^Icntiric contao&j arid » on would bf threatoicd, Ai worst, ir rrorlam and
conflict— with ensuing migrition flows- would drastically increase, which
would certainly attraa d% attention of d% North.
The ptcuure ofa r.apidly growing population on the world enulronment is
already becoming all too evident. But the solution to this vexed question

I Unllfd Nidoni ConEcrciKr cm Tcadc lEid r>cvr1opEEicnl

i Orncidl Aftrccmcni Oft Tiilfl^ jnd Trade

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

cannot be found In the cnvlironmcntal area alone. GcnciiUy- ihc cause of
mvlfortinf n ul problems ti i complex mixiuK of human aetds. economic
pressures, technologic j I options and polftlcal IntrrcsQ. Knowledge,
resources, sfn^itivJty and commitment are nefiJedloiesolve diem. There is

now wide public awareness that the E^ith is i s^inglc deLkate systenip thai die
descruoion of tbr envlTDnmenr In the Saudi chmUM dw Nonhn md v\k
verUr In the environmentaE area, there Jie now the precondtdtou for
inlenutional actkJiir

P4ttiiipfi\Un in EAf iwrfif onvmy: The outline of the developed ecoiximlef

piesentcd earljei In this chapter demonstrates (he enormous potential of new
tech[x>logle5, nuiugemcnt practices and public policies to pnsmote a new
surge of growth. But at die same dme, the demand tn these powerhil
economies for d^ products of the developing countries U likely To dlmJni&h is
a result of cechnologtcal progress, automation, and their changing demo
graphic structure. The shift horn natural to synthetic products and new

materials has cotiflnued, moreover- to weaken the markets for most basic
product which still ate die main exports arwl the source of earnings In foreign
exchange for most developing counlries.
A number of developing countrlesn such as South Korean Singapore,
Malaysia. Brazil, and mote recendy Mexico, which are able lo compete
succcefully, aimafcrwcstmcnt, and generate a modem economic base, may
effectively become full parckjpanis In the developed pan of liie world
economy, tn other countries, the modem part of a dual economy may
develop strong links lo die northern economies, unconnected to ihe rest of
the country which conunues with its traditi«ul economic piacticcar In any
nsc, most dcvclopliig countries itc in need of kcc» to modem technology
and enhanced icientific and technological cooperation.
For many poorer counCFles.arK] for the poorer partsof dual economies, ihe
economic opportunJbes wiEl be limited. Demand for their primary products
h'orn the f^orth is unhketyio increase significandy and ihey will probably be
,

unable to develop i significant manuFactutIng base. Further, the advantage of

cheap labour will diminish as automation In the North reduces labour
conient.and the potential of cbc knowledge revolution', of information and
eompuicr technology, telecommunicjEions, etc., a Likely to remain
unrealized. This Is because the trained and educated manpower, the systems,
and the infrasEruciure, on which such i leuolutlon must be based, are
lacking.
Anodiet criitcal aspect will be the growing compeQtion for resources of all
klndj— particularly energy, water and suitable land for living— as world
populanon grows and environmenia] problems increase. The orderly

Auteursrechtelijk beschsMTid materiaal

60 • The Fint Global Rsmlutum

tocui^s through The

disuibutlon of such muka price meduniim, or by
government iLlocaQon, wiLI come under incrcising ptc&uic js demands
become mote despeiace. This Issue wlU lequlte urgent anendon u the
IntemadonaL Jevel. Jt will be ome of die necessary funciLons in Fucure, on both
practical and ethical grounds.
inihe ^b5eI^ccof Jfllgnlflcamncw mawgy for world development, the
world economy Is likely to become even nure polarized and divided
between the ilch and the poor. Alteady, about 1.3 billion people, more than
20 per cent of world population, are serlousEy sick oi malnourished, iccordtng
to the World Heildi Organization, With dUspcispcctlve Li Is alanmlng to note ,

thac the aid pcrformana of ihc developed countries may be dcioloratlng.

Since 19?0, their proivlslon of aid has expanded bioadly In Itnc with theii
economic growth, i.e. at about J per cem per annum. While the aid growth
Fluctuates from year lo yeai, the average for the past four year? has been less

than ; per cent. In 1089 the amount was USI 46.7, abouiO.n pet cent of the
GNP of the dvclopcd co\intiic5, down from an average of 0*^ per cent of the
last [wemyycais Ithe UN target set aiO.75 per cent). Within this average,
is

some countries fuve conslstendy maintained an aid level c^aiound 1 per cent,
while others remain well below the average. An increase in ODA (O&dll
Development Aid ] i& paiticularly important fra- the poorest countries iS they
have very limited options available to promote dicli development.
The Improvemeni In reladom between East and West now raises the
possibilityof a truly global effort. OverUSt 1 trillion Is now spent worldwide
on ^imameiii^ eac^ year, including I 200 billion spent by developing
countries. Therefore, substantial human arxJ monetary resources could
gradually be released for development liuough the reduction of expenditure
on drms throughout the world.
Hew thinking is b^dly needed: to ignore the issue will lead to disaster.
Besides, ^in^ply promoiing growth' chroughcmt the developing world along
the lines followed
by die Western economies is not a vkable strategy on
environmental and other grounds. This must not become an excuse lor
stagnation: it is a reason for examining new apf^oachcs to developnient.

THE SOVIFT UNION AND EASTERtJ EUROPE

Unul and the countries of eastern Europe did
quite recently, (he Soviet Union
norplayasubsianilai lolelntheworldeconomy. Now the siruatkin Is rapidly
changing and their rale will become increasingly impomnt for the following
mam reasons.
The success of pcrrdivild in the Soviet Union, and in those East European
countries engaged in reform, depends to a certain extent on trade and

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd inatenaal

 A4ismani^ffemenl of the Worid Eauiffmy • 61

technologkal coopciarion wich ihc West. A^ reform continues, ihc intensity

oFsuchcoDpcFdTian will tnaease. ind :hi^ wrll be orpjrtKiubnmptHianct to
western Europe, e&pfi:ia[]y Lo the Federal Republk: oE Germany, Thus, the
leaders of the seven wenem mdustrlaL rounnrln. at ibdi meedngin Fails,

assigned a ccx^rdlruting lole to the EuEopean Commhsioi] tn this area.

TheSovletUnionand the Ej£t European coQntrLeE,paiticuldrly Poland, are

bdng enormous budgetary and ElnandaldifficulcieE The budget deEnitt of the
USSR for 19B^ amouikted to 1^ billjon rubles, or about USI IQObklban ai the
ofFldal rate. There is a vast coHectton of [Hoblems to be solved and the
benefits anticipated fmm frjuttaiia have not yet begun to appcdi. Fiam the
comumer's point of view, the ^lEuaiton Is In ba worsf dun brfaie.
In theieclrcumsunrcs, finance and Investment from the West are of great
Importance^ Although It has cnicred Into loan agreements, paTdcuUrly with
German banks, the Soviet Union seems reluctant to take up the credit now
avatlable. Poland, however. Is uigcndy seeking resources tor Immediate use.
Two important issues arlsf . FIfst, undl the nurugemfni of the economy in the
USSR Improves, will the additional tinanrlal Tesources From the West be
effectively uQllzedlSecond, anUl It IS clear that reform will suceed, and that a
reformed Soviet Union will not revert to Its past policy of confrontation wirh
the West, should the West p<ovlde support^
Th\% second Issue is proving to br a diviiive farce in die West. Wcsi
European countries emphasLze die opportunity and need to encourage
positive change, while some in Unned States cmphailze the risk, and n-ced
die

fo: caution. If USSR should decide to move much bster, even Incurring
substantial debts to accelerate economk growth dirough coopcraOon with the
Wcsi, thii problem will become kqk.

RfloIuFu rniH \npan: C3ne of the certainties of international relations since the
Second World War was chat relations between USSR and Japan would not
^jgnihcanlly jmprove two reasons, japan's friendly relations with the
for

United States had pre eluded good relations with the Sov let Umon, during the
periodofEait Wesiicnslom Secondly, the vehementdiugreementbetween
Japan and IISSR over the Kurile Islands prevented any rapprochement-
Boih thc5C considerations may no longer be important. At a time when
East Wesr tensions have lessened, and because of an Incieasingly strajncd
relationship with the United Slates, |apan may feel more inclined to improve
Its relations with the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union in lum may wish to

strengthen its ues with |apan in order to benefit frcm Its financial and
EcduioJogitdl tnourtn. Such i development would has'c mijor repercussions
on the structure of the world economy, and on IntetnaEional relat^^n; in

Auteursrechteiijk beschermd materiaal

62 • Tht Fim Global Reroluiion

Beyond these sped^ jnsances, ki must be noted that the poLtcks and
piofpects of the Sovlci Union md ics allies ate of Immense importance to (he

future of ihc world. For more than forty years, the rivalry and icnsjon
bctwfrn Ejst and Wesi havt nured IntfrctJUondl Ecljtion^ jctd obstructed
growdi and progress diroughour the world Whcihcr thi^ ^uujulxi i^ iiiady
ktrevetsibJe> and ftfotniiji will Jail to fulfil cxpcctJCLons ^nd this failure will
result In a return to mn&onutlon Is beyond the scope of this report. But mc
conclusion Is must be made to cotKoTldate the
inescapable, Every effort

progress which has already been made, awiy from East West conironmlon,
and toward; a rL:dua]on in drmamrn(». This will produce po^vt re&ulQ
ihrougbyui ihe world, for two reasons; fust, and most evident, it will help to
reduce tensions, and thereby reduce the resources expended on armaments.
These resources wlH then became dvaJlable for invcstznent, and for the
provision of desperately needed social scrvlcefl^.

Secondly, the reduction of tendon, conflict^ and d^ threat of war will

provide in Important motal and psychologica] boost to world motale. This

should not be undetcsdmated. It could create the conditions for constiuctlve

f\i*f IniUaOvci ^n which East and West ojuld cooperate (cr The first time,
rnobllizing their energies to face global problemi. This Js perhaps die greatest
single opportunity avilUble ii the pic^ent ume to consolidate ihc piogjcu
whJch has been made by mankind and to open new ways for future global

coopciition.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 4. Intimations of Solidarity

[n a d«larirtori made by the Club of Rom* in 15B^ ^vesaid, (here could tw a

bfl^land fulfilling futuicjivaiting humanity ffhhu die wisdom lorcdchoul

iDdgraspthcdlERculOesihudpOia^lowdndpjinfuldccllJKlf lincglctcs to
do so/ TfUi it ntll out crctkiH but dmc Is now running ouc, Ln the previous
dupccis wc have oudlncd iomc of the negjiivf and dangerous uendj in

conwmporiiy soficTy However, there arc uuht posiovt aspcos which give
hope that humanity Is dwae of IQ problems jnd dial the human lacehas the
urge, the creativliy and the adapiabkllir to manage tis uncenaln future. In thli

diaptei we ^11 moiOon a few of ibcsc signs of hope as an OKOUiagemeni to

the teadei.

There arp ihr» passiUritlK facing mankind. The firsr Is rhjt there will
be i nuclear ^ar, after whkli [here will be nolhrng to worry aboLL The
SKond Is that K wtfT be willlns Eo Uke a thousand snulLi wise decisions
and mill praduallyoutirfihe mess. The third 4id most prubaWe lithai
i| will do noilipne dibd tliai iht sitiul^ mlFF d^ttnor^it w ttiJl |hf poor
Hill uiJKrLE the e^rlK jnd livC iit mj^ry For Ever aher.

Epjrdphrased Uom Harrison down's speecti')

For die bst forty-five year*. Ideological paTarlzadon between the two
superpowers hasheld the world hypnotized by the apprehension of a nuclcat
disaster. The crosion of the jnftuence of the superpowers, and now the

1. 'Fcr3onj( Comrnunlcatton'. ]U7». (tluitKm Bmwn wn al dut Umc PmEaaa il die

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

 ^

64 • The First Giohal iUpoIuium

iudden calLapu d tht raw^dilballrd rtomornks hjs ncutnlrzd the

tensions, presuming ui w\ih in entirely new mife en iunc. Agrwrnt nu on arms
reduction uc jchtevemena Eu beyond anything thai ojuld have been
Imagined 3 decide ago and there is the expecuOon of much more to come.
This clean the way kn mote scrkous atiendon lo dieoihci problems which In

conjiincuon mjke up the predJfajnent ol mankind'.

The new spjrH of coopetation heiwccn ihc United Stites and die Soviet
Unton has made possible a high degree oF ubdarlty between the nations
ag3ln» tggr«&^n. as proved by die i^ cement of the UN Securltv Council jnd
General Assembly to ImpOK a worLd blockade on [raq folbwing Its
occupation of Kuwaii In i990.
Cooperative efforts have led Co progress In odier areas, such as the Uw of
ihe Seas Corafercnce where delegates, after LcEigdiy ncgociiuom^, ^g^ced on
many important Issues and novel InstltudonaJ measures. They ciKknsed the
concepr of the oceans &< 'common heritage u( mankind This precedent
as ,

hdfdlsQ been applied to AntarcdUplhcUsL and ewemety fragile unexploitcd

area of the planet, which otherwise would have been pillaged by ihe
Industrial nadocc in iheii gr«ed for new le&ourcn, leading to ecological
disaster.

There have beef> In recent vean,et>coursgTng signs of an Increase in public

awarenessof ihe dangers 'A'hich face m^dLLCJniuaUy to ihe repots by ipoups
such is the Club of Rome which were then promoted by the media.
Worldwide public debate, the pressure of green lobbies, calamities such r
die Chernobyl jnd Bhopj] diijsteis have forced polincijns to jecognize the
Importance of a whole series of new issues, and compelled Industry to adopt
ai least a semblazKe of social and envirorunental responsibility' As a
consequence of awakened awareness, new signs of responsibility and
solidarity ha.ve appeared amcnig the general public in the form of citizens'
groups, coopcntLvcs and NGCh with a vast vacjfty of alm^ ^d methods,
oncemed with local, national and world problems.
Particularly Impressive has been the leEponse of many private and
volunteer agerKles to disasters in places which -are ^ from theii bases. Their
ccmtrlbutlons have been outstanding In a number of eardiquake relief

opcrattons. During the acute famines In Ethk^pfca and thc5ahcl,NGOs appear

to have been more effecnve than governments and (he international agenoes
in promptly reaching food supplies to the starving popublkins. In general,
non- governmental activity h^ achieved a new order of impoitance and bids

LT/iiFr;i^oE}ilLifMuMjl waiEbeiltledibenigiiulandvciyfiiitreiea/chp^otecLaldir
dub of SlOUK.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 Ititim9lionfafSaU4firity • 65

fail to have a growing and conscrucdvc Influence on nadonil and InTcmatJoful

polidn.
Despttt dK relative taliurt of dev^lopjn? ni and ltd polid«, fomc countiics
hive adiicvcd ^p^cucuUi luccosfs. ^la, one oi ihc most populous
countilcs, has become i aapi industtlaL power In MJdtdon to li3- agrlcultura]

arhl^ementj chtough du Green FtcvoluUon. The Aiian Dragons, otherwise

known asiheNIQ newly industrtaJlzed counoles oFSouih Easi Asia —
f die

Taiwan, Singapore. Hong Kong ^d South Korea,) have achieved gteai

pnxpeilEy which is \axd lo a large extent on exploitaticoi of the new
If ehnologlet. Theie Is a ]»son hrrc foi adier struggling nations The Dragons,
following: ihf example ol i^p^n. founded (heir deve]opmen[ on the
gene ralizauan and upgrading of education and the creation of ^oiind uicnufic
In&astructum. Somr of ihf poorer coiuntrlcs a.re aho ^ho^ving the results of

autive Initiative— for example, the recent progress In Boiswanj and

consistent development fn Zimbabwe.
fi sign ificint event his been the exercise of peoples powci' iuppirtcd by ,

world public opinion- leading to the downfall trf oppressive governments m

eastern Europe. These are mvUfe^iauons of change which ten years earlter
would have been ^uppres^ed by mlhtarv Intervenbon. This type of blood less
revolution is a rare event in world hbtory, and contiasts widi the brutal
crushing nf popular will i few mondia tarlicr it: Chliu and chc tragic events In

Romania. Changes in Chile have beer* positive and there is a trend lowsids
den>ocracy In many other place*. The recent ideological volte face by the

letderof Erhfnpla ii amszFng and hopes now arise ^or scnlemen is in Central
America and even for [he disjppejcance of spanheld in South Africa. despiEc
[hedangerofdvli WIT In ifut country. In many African counirla. which have
been ruled by diciiiors and single parry polmcs ancz independence, public
unrest is beginning to win concessions. Thus, as we come to the last decade of
this millenlum, we ^nd chat detnocraey has emerged as the triumphant and
prefctted ideology of ihe whole wotkln while dictatorial ideo9<^e« both of
ihc ^fl and of the right have ^len Into disrepute. One can only hope this will
be an Ittcvenlble rtcnd.
A new kind of fel Jtion&hlp can now be obscivcd between heads of slate

and minlners. Through numerous mulQUterjl or bilateral conferences,

meetings aE>d telephone calls, personal relationships are being established
which enable a bener understanding anxing the human beings behind the
official masks. This is aeadng a new network of tapid communication
at the highest level, even If It docs not always lead to greater understanding or
common anion.
Enormous benefits have flowed from advances In the medical sdences and

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

In ihc ImprOiVcmfliiol hygiene [he world ovn. In tht North, iKe scourge of
tubcTculojts tus gone; life expecaiK;^ has tnansedn and curoof al^viatians
foutxj loi manf lllnc&scs. Sm^JIpox h^s been eliminated by ^ weLlplanned
tnKrnHlonalefFortanJ hopes exist (or the ciadictlon of several other diseases
which plague the ocpkal councrtes. Pcrhap* even more Lmporun[ ls ihe

iiEnificjnt rcducft)!! of Inhni morphty in ific developing counuLw, pnly

diFough improved hygiene, but ta a greater eEifni because of the
Inircductkin of a ^mple mpEhod of curing Infandle diarrhoea and more
recendy bf immunmTkKi agaj rtsc niej^Tes, a maiar killer cf children in tropkal
and equatonal ciLmates All in all, death conttol' has been moic succcssfu]

dun l»nh conuol in the dfvrioping world.

World recognition of d^ jmporian>:e of human rlghc ha^ betn i posi uve
feature In recent yeajs and shouJd continue to be so. Amtvsty Jntenutlacu]
and other tuch bcdici have been suecessfyl \n exposing jbii^es everywhere
without political bias. NeveEtheles^, the fashionable appeal to human nghis
hjj served is a manipulabve alibi to cover up unseemlv prdttLCts in nuny
countries. Here we must sires the ornvtction of die Club that the
maintenance of human nghts must be complemented by an equivalent
affepunee of social respi^nsibilicy Thi^ ^pphe^ eqiiaily af the [ndlvLdual.
national and InietnatJon^l levels
An eiample of a prompt approach tolhesoluOonof agbbal problem by
Interrra clonal aclkui has been the (at present partial^ agreement for (he
elimination ol the CFCs already referred to. We have also mentkified the
ttoid In Industry [ominln^ze dangnoiu, ditty jnd repedtlve work by die use
of robots, b^teresdng atcempts are aUo being nude to replace Jine assembly by
new niiethods of group working whtch give dtc n>embcrs of a team a varlay
of tasks to da and allow for individual in voivemenl which makes It possible for
workers to have pride In ihciE work and craftsmanship
Thls^enLury ha^ ^imcsscd gieai advances m die potiuon of vromcn In the
Western counmc^. fitic in gaining the [lgh[ lo vote, later being accepred In
cmpbynKnt outside and now edging cowards pay equal \o diat earned by
H

mm, hi many cultures women have been c&ploiEed by men, mnicied to die
&ml]y and given a iccondaty pbce Of
duoughout die
tn sodcty. coiirsc.

ages, iniclligcnt women hive exerciwd a great hifluence on society, dther

themselves or through their men. Today women work side by side widi lacct.
sit In parliament, become business leatlers arid prime ministers, although they

arestillinrather modest nuniberunth-e higher post^. This is good news, butH

Is soil iwl enough. The aggressive feminism of (he seventies and eighties
somehow irsissed the point. In demairding an aiiitlcial equality with men,
rather than a tole which Is essentially complementary, women found

Auleursreciileiijk beschermd malenaa!

 Tnanwtvms of Soiidarin * 67

iheyhidnoDdierchokeburiortptodiiCf thf^tpnl? mil? logic which hj^ l«f

the woild inio it& pr»cn[ sucf of mdUis?- In (ht pimcH, manj-of chemos:
jucces»ful of diem bccune, as li were, mjlc-hemcd women irt&tcdd of
dcvelc^ing the vtttuc5ofthc EcnuJc mind which society so hidly needs.
This phase. hippLlf, xcms co be p^^sing. There is Incredsing recognition
jmong boch mm arvi women of tht Fjgrificanw of ffmale quaiitiK and
Women lie i[ last accepting cbe ha ihaithcjanaad musi bch^v^ a
valucs^
women rather than anen^ co beat men ai ih«Ei own ganKS. Equally men,
and the minaeerUL economic and political sytrctai they have cteaccd. are
bcg.LT]nlng to rccogniie the Impoftancc of won>cn'5 skills as managers of both
pcopk and resources, as comniunicaron and. above jII, thji Lheir vf rsitilliy b
via] for the development of a hciilth^ jnd balanced ?ocie[v This recognjtJon
by both 9CIB 1^ a crudallf Imporont step foiwafd, and chis oppotiLinity to

enable and cncouiagc women to contribute iuUy K> the running of toocKy
must not be wasted. The batiLc Is not yci fully won. Male duiivinism persjRs,
but It will pas» with Fhc gencradons.
Two paramounc importance if
ele:T>ents are of women ate to conchbute
actively and consnuctlvely to axia! development. Firstly, society must bcdi
listen CO and place confidence in women. In the male dominated and
seemingly radonaL world of today, female Incuidan, versatility and innate
common sense are too often Ignored — oFren ^r 3 hctvj wtK- $cc>;imllyi

women will have to be given both financial and moral support by society.

Such nrpport needs to be fkrulblc and sensitive to albw women to pfay a

posinve toii in the shaping ofWCieiyH without COmprOrnlting their place at the
hcan of the hmily. tn (he West, this means ilcTiiblc work pattcrnSn
comprehensive child care and equal opportunities. In the developing world
this means extensive legal rights as well as poll iical and financial support- In
somr: countries, availability of credit for women for the first time has
unleashed a wealth of IniUatJvc lad cractve Kttvicy,
However, above all, women must linen to liiemscluci and support each
odier. They must develop cmhdence In their abilities ard stop an
inexplicable tendency to demgratc themselves while |udging ihemwivcs
a^insc m^le criteria.

Icis diusdcarchat we srcmiTiuallyrnponslble for thffumrcof our world.

We have to call foi an jnctcased pjndy rc^ionublc action.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 S. The Vacuum

Order ir socicly Is determined \fj the ccJiHion of to mein!>cn. QnttI At

middle oE oue cenruiy this w^ j^oim^ll^ cnsuECd by 3 natural pauiocsm
and a saae of belonging lo ^bc comm\iT\\tf, and reinforced by moral
di&ciplinc exerted by rehgion and by respect for the Uatc and its

leaders, howevei temotc tbejr migbc be horn 4k people, GoKtilized

religious hith hs^ now ev^porared in man]; ^oanO'lcs; rcsprct for the poHiinl
process has jIh? fjdcd, Icavtog behind Indifference, If nor hasnlliy This
is pardy due to the Influence of dK medlj. and partly to ibc inadequacy
of the pollOcal paciles In facing rci\ problems. Minorities ^re Increasingly
unwllTing to respect (he decision? of The maiorliy Thus i vacuum has been
aedced. in which boilk thr ofckr ud ab)ccnve& in soctcty ac bnng
eroded.
Today's approach to social bfe ii superficfal bised 00 current events and
crisis govcrncncni which actempt^ 10 eliminate sympcoms widiout dta^osmg
the causes of problems. This It the way we are setting the scene for the
dcsTiumon oE our planet
We look in vain for wisdiHn. The opposition of the two political ideologies
which have dominated this century no longer exIstSn leaving
nothhig b<Jt a Qras& m^reridlLsm Nothing wjthln ihe governmenrjl system
jnd it! denslDT making proccw seems capble of opposing or modifying
dicse tKDds, which raises quesdc^s about ouc common fpture and indeed
aboulthe very survival ofthetace.
We must ask whedier these are signs of an Individual and collective
rejdgtutioti Ih the tec ol the uumest of the caak f^^tng humanity ^A dx
urgem need for acUonn or Is it a sign of a lack of unaglnaQon and an

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

 ,

The Vacuum • 69

Incapadtyto Invent new way^^d ncwmcani whjch willm-edSLLreupUlhe

global magniiudc of [hcpHioblcmi^Tbctask is Indeed Eormidsblc, builfvwc
^w no ijgnof ^cqjdng its chdllcit^, li Is may p^mc, Ioec biih
Ukcly peopLc
In [heir leader*, give inia fcjr. and ofEer support lo cmicmlJts who know how
to Cum leu to ibctr own ddv^nogc with rnccndiary &t>cei:hes
a law of NKUrt di2T any vaoiujn will be filled jnd iheicEbre
[t ft

dlmUutcd> unle» this Is phyflcall^' prevented, 'Nature', as the uyirig goes,

'dbhor^d vacuum '.Like die bJackholcsof space which suck In everydiJngdidi
appiojch«» the vKUum of sodeif seems Co atna the best and dw woia at
randmn. Wean but hope chat the semi chaos whfch Is now taking over will
cwcntuallT provide die anaLCilal for i self otginl^d system with new
possibilities. The present sysiem is noi yet useless, but human wisdom must
be marshalled quickly if we are c& survive

'How simple thingswere with Brezhnev/ a Euii^«an Icadet confided,

]ulf-scriausly and half ironUally. The colUp&e of onnmunlsm in the East
Eutopein coumiic^ and the Soviet Uiuon wiU be a m^ior unseirling &ctor
during the coming lum of the century. The new hands dutate to be dealt In
the card game of politics aee unllkeSy co be a^sesied at dietr true value, nor are
their potenii jl consequences likely to be evaluated until at least two ot three
decades have gone by.
The itnpkisfon of the Comtnuniil idc^^Fo^y rh^c b^d dominated the gicatcr
part oF the twentieth century wa certainly spectacular, but It was by no
means an isolated event, licolnddcdwlthibeendofthe American dream'
which k»t its credibility w^th the painful Vietnam war that deeply scarred the
collective Amcrbcan comdeiKe, The failure of the DcEbi^, Hispanic

migration, the phenomenon of povenj within plenty, drugs, vIolerKe and

AIDS. And the fan char (he 'melting pot' nolonger worked were other potent
factors In its demise, lijving lost its position of unique leadership In the
world-aleaderihipcomposedofa generosity laced wfth Puritan values, and
a cynicism worthy of the conquerors of the Far West —the American EutKin is
plunged into doubt ^nd is Eacmg the often resisted temptation oF withdrawing

Into Itself, an escape that Is no longer possible in the present global

environment.
Most of the peer counmcs jre graduslli/ relinqiJlshinR their Marxlit md
socialist beliefs [n Favour ctf more concrete and iminediale preoccupations,

such as economic deueioipment artd the stabilization of their economies.

CapLlalist and fiee-markel economies have found it necessary lo make
adjustmenU so as to survive, while socL^iist systems jIso m^de adiustmenia
belatedly but did not survive. The political and economic cheoncs- which
motivated the actkins of wax and aroused the opposition of others For the

Auteursrechteiijk beschsMTid maleriaal

70 # TbeFmtGUjbai Rrpoluam

greawr pan of this century apiwaT TO have run their MQtM.OfllynuKrlalijm

remains loday as a strong all pervasive force.

h is noi cj&y ^ samulat? a euiivpt^jI debaif on ideas, but the lack of

anempts lo do so further dcepcni the void There Is 3 prosing r^eed for such a
.

debate, and ^bc hequency of mtemaiJonaE conferences and nieeungs, with

their cross culiurji dlscussioiu. dvmld Initiate new ^d more global chinking,
Thit period of absence of diought and lack of acommon vision - noi of
what the world of tomotiow will be, but of what we want It to be so thac we
can shape It - is a source of discouragement and even despair. How simple It
was,or should have been, for France, Great Brftain and iheir allies to inobnize
agalnai ihf ir common Nazi enemy. And wa a notsbviouj dutlt^ (he period
f the cold war , that die Western nations should accomplish a diplomatic,

economic and technological mobilization against the Soviet Union and Its

Dteiliie countries? Again, freedom fighters, despite tiibkl and ideologkcal

dlffererKcs, were able to find unity and strengthened patriotism in the

flniggk for IndcpenderKC common crKmy, the cploniil pQ^ecs. it

ibcli

would seem that men md women need a common motivjuon, namely a

common ^dvetsaiy agA^st whtim they can organize themaelves and act
rcstther In the vKUum such motlvadons seem ra have cea«d ro e>:lst - or
have yet to be found.
The need for enemfe; seems to be a common hlfloncalfAclor. Some states

have striven to overcome domestic failure and internal contradictions by

blaming external enemies. The ploy of finding a u:ape:goa[ is as old as

mankind itself- when things brcometoodi^ult at home, divert ittentlon

to adventure abroad, ^ng the divided nation together bo hce an ouolde
enemy, either a real one, or el:e one invented fbr the purpose. Widi the
disappearance of the ttidlEional enemy, the Lcmptadon is to use tellgious or
ethnic minorities is scapegoats, e^pedilJy dvase whose differences fn^m the
nujonty arc dJsKurbfng,
Can -we live widioui enemies' Every state has been so used to classifying its;
r^lghbours as friend or foe, that the sudden absence of traditional adversaries
has Left governments and public opinion with a great void to fill. tJew enemies-
have to be idcntilicdn new strategies Imdgtned. and new weapons devised.
The new erxemles are different in iheji nature and location, but they are rK>

They threaten the whole human race, and thdr ramcs are pollution,
less real.

water shortage, famine, malnumtion, illiteracy, and unemployment.

However, it appears that awir«icss oi the new enerriies is, as yet, iruufficienc

for bringing about world cohesion and soltdatlty fbr the fighr Also the failure

of many Ideologies has removed some of the necessary points of reference.

Twoaxes of reference have made po^& tble the pollucal evolution that has

Copy rig hied material

 The Vaaaon • 71

shaken the world (hex East yem and Ifd [O the downEaN of many
djctatonhlps^ Thc&c ate hum^n tLghi&anddcmocnc;, Wc shall now j[uJy»c
(hctr lengths and lirmc^uona,

During (be pjsid«ade, ihf conc^pcof huiiun Eights has been i moblLizIng
tictcr which beame e^ecUve through ic dissemlTution hj the mcdjj and hj
word of motL^ in che countries where such rights were dlsrrgsrdcd or
denied. When
freedom was widely enjoyed In other countiiesH how could
(Ik people of some countries bedei^ivedof It fndefinltcly^ This isespecaTly
the cue In countries nuchas Poland or Bcazjl where ihf CaihoJic Chureh in .

ardent protagonist and supporter of human rights, has i strong JnfluezKC.

In some of the mast lotahtarljn of countrin. dsplnotJiu tot ^iccdom hive
been fulAllcd in such a way cha[ It seemed as if the pressure of vilues Jud
reached ciitica] point and exploded, averthrowlng tlic opprcs^oiSr Through
various processes md despite the painful cose of ctvll stru^lc, death Ji>d
Impiisonment, this thirst fbr freedom was expressed by MaTtin Luihci Klngn
LcchWdJad. VdcIdvElivel.DontlcEdcrCiiTidtd.andNchonMjudddjusiu
in rarller years Mahaima Gandhi h>d paved the way.

but freedcqn alone cannot reorganize a state write a constitution, create a

.

market and establish economic growth, rebuild irxlustry ar^ agriculture or h

build a new social siTucrure. Lt1sanece«aryandnobletnsplTaaoiulfotce. bur

Isfar from bemg an operating ni^nujl for J new govetnTncnt. This 1^ why the

concept oFhuman rights simply initiates but cannot implement tiie process of
democtatltition
This is where the question must be rsi^— what ton of democracy is

required today and for what purpose?

The old democracies have functioned reasonably well over the Iak ewo
hundred years, but tiiey appejT now to be in 3 ph^se of complacent sfagnaQon
with little evidence of real leadership and innovation. It is hoped, with the
new'found enthusiasm for dcmocricy in the leccndy liberated counalcs, thai
people will not reproduce slavish copies of existing models thil ate unable to
meet contemporary needs.

Thr limia </fdtmacracy

Democracy is not a pinacea. [| cannot organize rvnything and It ]i unaware
of its own limits. These must be faced squarely, saollegioui though this
facts

may souitd. In Its preseni form, democracy Is no longer well-suited for the
tasks ahead. The complexity and the technical ruture of many of today's
problems do not always allow elected representatives to make competent
decision; at ihc tight dme. Few poimcldiH jn office iic luffiticndy aware of
the global nature of the problems ticing them and lltde. If any, aHrireiKS of

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

72 • The First GkixUB^foiutien

die Inicratnons bttwctn the problems, Genfcally spcakmg, informed

diiucssjon on tbc nuln pollUal. economic ^nd soaal Issues oke pljcf cm rv^\o
and wlcvision rather than hi PwUuncnt, to die deirlmeni of the Ijticr. The
JcUvtda of pobdcd putlesarc^ io inrcn^ly focusscd on flection deddliim dnd
party livalricj that ihej end up weakening dK democracy dwy «e supposed
TO jcrvc This <;cinfTOn«yonal approach gJv^s in impression Thai ^riy rwcds
tome before rulional intciest. Strategies and uciics 5eem more Impoitam
than ob)cctlv« and Qfien ^ conscituency Is negkcred J& won ^ It I& sained.
With the £unent mode oE operation. Western democraclei arc seeing dldr
formal talc decLjnc and public opinion drifiing jway from elected
representatives. However, the crisis In the contemporary demoaadc system

mua not be allowed to serve ^s an excuse for refecnng democracy.

[n ihc countries now opening up to freedom, deniocTJcy Is being
lotioddced In a situjtion which demands grejily chjnge-d artiiudn and
patterns of behaviour from ciUiens. These ineviable problems oE phasing in
democracy are diEficult to solve. more serious
But ihere Is anocher, still

question Democncy docb noi necn^^rily build the bridge between a colonial
,

or neo colonial economy or a c-cmnlizcd bureaucratic economy, and a

maiket economy based on compftinon atid cdpiblc oE producing giowih.
ACdnidn, market relatione and m^n^perial styles dimply do not exist In a
country experiencing a tt^nsinondL sicuation ^uch as (he present, which
because of sudden and unforeseen changes has been neither planned nor
prepared for the tnecessary structures, [f such a situation Is allowed to condnue
for too long, It Is probaWc thaf demociKy wfll be made TO s<^m responsible
for the lagging economy, the ^carcEnesand uncertainties. The very conccplof
democracy could then be questioned and allow for the seizure of power by
extremists of one sott or ihe other,
Wlnsion Churchill was rl^ when he quipped. 'Democracy Is the worst of
all systems, except for the rest. ' Yet we must be aware of its erosion, its

triglilty and its limicatiom- When persons say

what must be done It Is obvious

ro improve our situation, they seldom ask 'Why Isn't It doTvihenT And^f
'

they do ask, they will hivrCQuiKwrr, 'Ills beutisei^fl^ihe (political] will

or because of our habits, or because of shortsightedness, or politics arid so
on,./ Our how to overcome these sources of ineztia and
inability to Indicate

resistance makes It dear that we are not at all sure about what must be done.
We overlook Ipsycbologlcally speaking, we deny ) our ignorance and instead
say, riutwc lack the political will. The crucial need is to revitalize democracy
and give it a breadth of perspective thiE will enable it to cope with the
evolving global situation.
The real question Is, Is this rvw world we firxl ourselves m governable?

Copyrighted material
 —

The Vactam • 73

Tht irtSwCr w. wt[h thr txuting sfruCturs and JnfCud«, ptob^bly AOt. H3V«
wc gddKicd ihc nmessuy mnns and wtsdotn to mike dedsions on die fcile
required for the world problematique, E^ngintOKCOumih£c:itigenoe&of
dnK' There Is an irKieislnglr evident contiadlalon becweeo Ihc utgency ai
taking som? d^cisioii^ ^nd the dcmocriiic picxc^s loiinded on piocedum
such a& pJiUimenQFy dt^bjce. pubk D3de
debate, jcid neg(XlJbon& with
unions or proteslovul otginiunons. The obvious adv^rtoge of dvse
pioccduic^ i^ the achJpvement oi a conscn^u^. die di&jdvjn(jg.e lies In d)c

Eimcdkey ukc, espectally ae [he Incf mjcLOEuUcvel. tor indeed the difficulty
Is not only in the taking of decisions, but also In d)dt Implemcnabon -and
evaluadon. Time In dbnc nuitc» hjs dcqulied a dccpcthlcal value The co^i?
oFdelay lie monstrous In letmsoF human hfe and hardship as we II as wane of
resources. The sIowiku of decision oklng in a demociabc system \i

particularly damaging it (he Iniemauiirnal level. Wheii dictators attack and

tnternaOonal policing Is required, delays In taking dedsioois un mortally aFfcci
the lives of thousands of people.
The problem then is to invent instruments of govenutKC capable of coping
with change wldiouc resorUng to violence and mamtaJnirLg the kind of peace
which provides security, lustlce and fulBlllng growth br individuib and
soclenes allke^ Kot only have we to find better mans of govemance at

national and iniemaUonal levels, but wc also have to deiermiiie the

characteristics of the capacity lo govern Global '.govemarKc' in out

vocsbulacy docs not tmply a global government' but caiher the institutions .

set up for coopernlofl, coordination, and common iction between durable

sovereign states. The good and, for our purposes, encouraging news Is that;

— people arsd nations are beginning to-agtee to oke the 'next steps' together,
^tiowever, they are carefully avoiding toagree on leAirthcv^re agreeing.);

—they are reaching a consensus by practical procedures rather than by the

formal vodng of govemmental rcprnentanves;

— many Iniemabonil functions, especially those requinng the most forntghr

and perauonal flevibllltyr can be earned out through non -governmental
arrangements;

—In many governments have come to realize diat the effccOvc

fields

deploymeniotthejrmosi cherished right, then sovereignty, requites that

a be p«y with the sovereignty of othct nations, in Ofder to do dilngs that
none of (hem can do alone. In this sense, coopeiauon docs not mean
rehnquj^hing ^ovciejgtityH but rather exerting It diiough joim action
instead of losing it or just not using it.

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 ,

74 • TheFinta&balBjrvoIittKm

Whfthcr onthf intfrnationa! level, the national l<vd,orthe levd of the

OMporaiion. the problem of govcmanct ptescnti itself tn new cetms. The
gtowing compkxicy of die world and of its probJems makes It nccc&ary to

have a comply If grasp on ftcmendous ^mounc of InfbrmaOoo brfoce commg

Kfi decision. This limnedldlely calls Into qu^Ci on ihf qiiality of informadon,
lot ix \i In con^tanc dmgrr of rapid ob&ok&tenc^ and po§&ible jnjc<:tuacy. or of
belE^us^ior outright propaganda. A second Lmpcdicnenr [o governance Is

C2uicd by the Increasing size and inertia of large bureaucracies thai spread
their tentacles around checenftcsof power and slow down ot paralyze both
dcdskm- making and impjementaiion. Other crtidal impedi merits consist of
[he Idck of cdundon iov tompctmt tiiucmhip dnd uudcquatc
LnteTgeneraQotul undct^tandlng.
Yet another difficulty arises trani the Uck of cooperation within the

admtnJstratiiRi and lis secioral .struCEuies, [f the different power centre; do not
learn to cooperate, and Instead Insist on acting in ignorance of or m opposLdon
to one anoCha, the KSMltIng adrnlnlstrative sluggishness can povokc dchp
that can lead to inefficiency, wrong decisions and confrontation
So far, governance has oprnt^ by treating problen^ separately and In a

i^tticai mode, i.e, field by field. Today the inreractEon between problems is

mcoz^po^y of governments and their departments, working In a vacuum,

outside oE the framework of the problcnutlqiK^ This In cum demands leader?
of a new klTwl.capableof treating problems In both a horizontal and vertical
mode^ In the world ihat Is eniergmg, decision tn^lng can no Longer be the
monopoly of governments and their departments, working In 3 vacuum.
There is the need to bring many partners into the process— business and
indusoial organlzatkms, research imtjtuttons, sdendns, iUCOs and private
organizations— so that the wtdcst possible experience and skill Is nude
available. And, of course, erhlightened public support, where ihe public Is

iwatcof the new needs and the po^jble consequences of decisions would be ,

essentiaL Adynamic world needs an effective nervous system at the grassroots

level, rwt only to eruure the widest range of inputs, but also ro make the
idennflcanon of every cinzen with the common process of governance
possible
[n the present St tuition in the worlds the lack of identlBcatkin of the people
with the processes of decision -nuking is expressed in the form of
Indifference, sccpCdsm, or outright rejection of governments and political

parties, which are seen is havtng llnle control over die problem? of our times.
These atHiudes arc clearly Indicated by a decreasing race of paitidpaCon In
elections.

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 71* Vacuitm • 7S

The (6>rttn6n enrmy ofhutHomry u Man

[n searching For dcomnuinmfmyjgainsl whom wcc^nunitCr wcc^mcup

With ;hc idc^ ihji pollunon, the ihrcai of global warmjng. waicE ^horageSx
Enntae and the like, -would fit the bill. In tbdi loulliy jnd then intenctLons
these phenomena do con&tiiuie a common thicai which mast be confronted
fcjl in designating dicsc dangers a^ the enemy, wc fall
by everyone tDgcthcj.
InColhetrap. whkh we have already warned Eesdeis about, njmdy mistaking
symptoms for cjuses. All these dangers are caused by ^tuiuji mccrvenoov In

n*tural processes, and it i5 only through changed atritudcs and behaviour that
they can be ovcrtome. The real enemy thai is huminitp :oclf.
 6, The Human Malaise

The shock wivci prtdjccd by the drasdc dnnges of ihc peat irinsiDon aic
ihus sparing no region, noracfrty. This upheavil has broken up a system of
idaDonshtps and bclJcEs Inhetlted ^oni the p^^, wlihout leaving humanlcy
any guideline ioi &it hxtatt. ThciC arc w many reasons for doubt and
dcipali: the disippcaiancc of value? and established points of reference, ihe
InCTOSlng complexicy and unccruinty of the woild and the diffictilcj' of
undersfandlcig the new cmeiglng globat society, unsolved problems such as
continuing envlronmcncal dciciioidDon, and extreme poverty and
undcrdcvelopmCTit In ihc louihcrn counoics; the Impact of mas media often
opeiating as 3 rnagmfying ^\m for i dcprosinE reality and hjghlightfng the
misery of people.
Let us mention, Kidioui attempting an In depth anilysfs, a ElstofvarloiK
symptoms, which although differing from ezch odier in thdr nature and tbclr
consequences, together shaTc die quality of being globaf symptoms; the
wava of violence. patdculaEly in big cities, the permanence of mtemailonal
terrorism, the actlvltlo ofmiFlas Ithai are also rapdlybccomlngintcmatJonal
networks), the of drug addiction and drug -related crime, tbc aggressive
rise

sexual exhibitionism and dcviambchAVLoui exploited by the press, the other

mass media, and the advcrdsJr^ tndusor.
All these phenomena are ^tcUng dic^cage,oomanydlffcicn[ levels, fori
new upsetting environment, where deviini behaviour Is In general given so
much and such repfited coverage that ii ti percelTcd as being commonpbce.
Parents and teacbcis, the point of reference In most societies, have not been
prepared by thdr education to adjust to the new sltuaOon Imposed upon them
today. As the late American sociologist Margaret Mead remarked. 'Toung

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people arc ttur njtlvc population of this nf w world In which wc iduJCs ire
Immigranis'. Some of \a woukJ even go aJong widi her ob*c^vJt^on dui
"nowhccc In die world do there esisi aduiti who know what their children
know, however remott or simple ihc socieues in which those chihiren live, [n
(he pjst, [here were ilways »mc dden who knew more — had more
experience or praMiec of a sy^em In which dicy had grown up - than jn?
child. Today there are no Icaiger any.'
Everywhcreptcacbctsite being wldi^JT pupils, fbrihcy too
difficulties

are unprqiaied for teaching young people who aie much more lndependen[
dun (hey were ai ibc same age jnd constdenbly better Informed (atxl
misinfoimcd) brcstrse of the nuu medlj. All^ruofln^rutlons,suchjs the
pohticaT parties or Qadeurh^i. itc discover ing bow difRcull ills to retarf to
dieir coDstituenoes In the old fashioned way. Thte crisis of relationsbps a a
crisis of dialogue. And jb&ence of dialogue leads to conironotlon.
This does not merely mejn thai parents and lejchers hive ceased to be

gutdc»; It tXim [hat dicrc die no longer mj guides in (he old xnx of the
tenn whether one boks for diem in one's own country, jn China, In Lndiij in
Afrla. In Amerlcaor in Europe. Thinks to modem information technology,
young people uc being exposed rapidly lo more and more facts that give
them reason to believe that their elders lack responsibility and ^re una wareof
enormous dangerous such u a nuclear holocaust, pollution and the violent
destruction of environment. Furthermore, a shower of reports cm unrelated
dlanets and violence in the news everyday are like a series of shocb that lead
m die feeling of generalized disorder.
Wi^in this djsturblng paoem, what hapt^s to the 1 Ife of the individual^
Children watch tdewlslon and leatn about all aspects of human life. They
learn to be persons widi individual choices, Indlrutions and freedom. 'Hie
conflict between inherited and acquired values. Is such that If a young person
wants to delink and jci for himself, he must have lots of courage or he will
break down- Not having been given the means to distinguish the fundamcrtal
meaning In (radlUons and values, from whal Is nnerely their formal
expression, the younger gerkeraUon is rejecting tradltjons and values as a

whole and is sketching out new trends: today, adolescents ate the ones who
krtow about and conaibute to the mator tramrkationaE trcrhd&> ai>d try tostand
Rrm agilnst dangers. Their parents now have to see-k their consent and
negotiate thetr own Formerly unquestioned authority.
How do parents and teachers tcict lo this tevetsaL where the exercise of
authority is disputed and the 'master' Is no longer acknowledged ^ Some of
chem, !dll mentally adoiewcpt oi cinotlonally Immature- adop( the yoMng
people's fads and imitate the way they dress and ?peak. Those who lose all

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7S • -^FintGioiaiB^voMm

authority over their children, art usually themselves unsure of their own
Idcndcy and valuesn ^d transmit didr own nuaiaisc lo ihc young^
F<w these dlsiurbed paienls of disturbed young people, there 15 only one
way out, which Is noc Co ttdiat. but tiuly llftcn to and lejrri fiom their
dilldren, even if the chcorlcs d)C children profcaa stRisi seem iinacccptabk to
thfm, or unworkibli: and impossible to put Into pnctkc. Tbeic is 1 Deed.
nma more than cvCTh to cstablbh a fruitful inter gencraiiDnal diilogue,

[n slmcHi all cullureSp the family Is reigaided as a Eundamentsl social unit, [t

will probably continue as such, but In new clrrum^ances — dii^iojnCcd jnd

shatteied b^ urban liEe, rural eiodtu. emlgiiijon and contUci^p modified by
control oviTj tcptoduoian- with the human couple now iomed m in
uncertain bond, functioning according 10 a new pattern of relationships that
has rcpUced the hitherto uncontested parental authority; a family within
which the upholders of naditian are increasingly in conflict with those of an
AnierLcan ^lyle modernity.
'In India/ explains Mrs. Parthaswaratht, dK principal of > girls' school In

New Delhi, die aisls has already arrlued. The young arc living a perilous

exiitence, lorn between new values and subiectedta

the ciadittonal and the

contradictory pressures. They musieoiillrtuillynufce up their mmds and take

decisions In a context where the family used to deddc collectively, with the
last word bclon^^ to the pamarch.'

fndeed, man is Jn distress' Except Tor those who believe and do

good deeds, and command the law among themwivesand
conuiujid patient endurance among them^lves.

The picsentmalai5cLs affecting sodetiesH and lixlivkliia}s ate confused by their

brutal brea}; with the past with no new coheient vision o( i^t future tO foctify
them. 'Who am I; where am I going; why^ Although these are traditionally

the eternal questions they arcnow Eclt more acutely than ever and even now
,

cannot be answered saOsfacloilly, The turmoil which Is especia.lly - but iwt ,

exclusively —affecting young pcoplCn (s expressed in a number of ways which

are identiflahle is symptoms of this raai ik vtvre.

II en hiierdii d''interdlr«.
(Forbfddlng Is (orbldden.^
Oneof theitogan^of the
Student reTOli in ParliJ?6a.

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 TbeHwmmMiMte • 79

fIglnsaEdiscordhjvf grjdudlyjpp«[pdm thfglobdJ soc^ty, mdudngfuf

md bringing young people [ogcther de^itedifferpncesc^ddss.culiuFc iod
(suntry. Rock mtiJkcgjdgfU and coll drlnki have forgfd anew. pirallcl ind
tonporary {a long is youth lasts? sodcty and cicaitd whai ihc African
historian |o«fph KiZerbo calls 'homo cocj colons'. These new D-|bes

toi^sdiuie J global phenomenon. The^ are strongly snticied by consumeuBm

widujul, lor die most part, having financial access to k. Furthermore, dim
own fumrc seems to oftct nothing but an uncertain Ii,ftht for s urvival in an
InhospiEabTe global SDdcty inarked by fjoomy peispCLiives such as bruol
competiDon or die ihieai ot uncmploymojL
Ai fot their oldcrf .
many of diem arc inclined [o returr) to thdr tndirtonal
cultural and rellglocks roo[», convlnccdp n lea&r foi die nme being, thai this
will provide the onl^ way out oF a life of misery and despair. In fact, another
jspcclof diis^eat tijnsicion IS the felt need to
£0 back to the ancient spiritual
principles such as those of Islam oi Cadioliclsm. orto ftnd solace In cula axl
pacudo icliglons This I? csscnaally a manifcstauon of ihcdc^ qucK Eor d)c
absolutCn which Is shared by so mmy human bclngs^
However In manj cases, thl& need develops into fundamcntalisTn and
fanaticism, which is usually immense disappointment feEl
an expression of the
Md-M the VVeKett) model cd modcmizjuon. con^umpaoc. cconorJilc
growth and social progress, which has not kept m promljc in mwi developing
countries, and has brought dehumanisTlon In the JndusirlallKd regions.

Moreover, nationalism, wbch has always existed Jn vatious Forms ai^

degrees In ^[ parts of die world, has now acquired more vlgorousdlmenslcns-
Ln the East European countries, for instance, the nationalist resurgence has
been dK dilvtng Force In dx disintegration of Communist states, just ai

earlier. was the most powerful lever In ihc anticolonial fights. ^i

It

nationalism is a double edged sword; based on the c^ concept oF die

nation state, iicanjll 100 easLl^bccome J JOUiceoFlnmleiance.conflia and
exaggerated raasm.
TJie traditional concept of nation Is partly disappearing In the wave of
Intcmanon^lization — For mstance, the dependence of some countries on
odicis ^ raw materials and energy, or for food, mvesiments. technology

TnnaFer and training— whidi a creating new ^lidantics thjr arcoot^vnyi

KCcpicd OI understwxi.
The reUrth and rckiforccmcni of xenophobia and racism can of cout^ be
exp biricd by the millions of JnnmigEancs and reFugeesm Asia, Africa, America
and Europe, who ate seen ai a menace to die sodal equilibrium of a country
and a kiIous threat to m cultural idenuty jusi when this identity a bemg
questioned by its own adepts This phenomencm is all ibe more manifeit In

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80 • Tix Bnt Giobai Rrpoiutvm

chii i\ Is hiduced by the (onfu^ion m fjch individuj] who i^ Facjng th^ biual
emergence of ihf glob jl dimensLomof todjy^ is&i]«. ind by die building of
regi-onj] and mcc:- region j orgdnizanons &uch ja thr European ConununltyH
I

where pcop]? fcjr they will lose their soul.

Theie two opposjng uends - ihe revival of specific cultural tdenOdes and
die form Jtion oi vjst, regional unjti-arctnrailtycDmpiDblc. The appjrtnc
cottflici arises horn ihe difficuliy of leconciling tEiein wid^in d^c ^rxi&Qng
pohtialsystemsrjgidly set within The model of the n3Don suie, which cannoi
be adapted \a the present sjtuition and needs to be ccplaced by i solid culiuial
world cominunity, Tbu a socncthiDg very few jic jwaie of-

Thls picture 15 rather grim, but wc tan point oui iomc poiiuvc signs diat

iie emccgirigr loimg people are good at iiaiung le^olunons. no matici

how soon th«y are re ^Integnifd into the mamstream. It wouldbedifEicukio
forget their role jn Algeila. Africa, Chile, China, Romania an-J dv Soviet
(JnloOn CO mention |uat i few countries where regimes have been overturned
by popubr provst,
The human malaise appears to be a normal stage In this great traruiikin.
Eteblith cannot uhe place jmnnediatel^ or without patn. We cannot dlsregaid
the dlversLty of wcieties and cultures, discount the burden of tradition, or
fotgct that words and concepts do noi alw^y^ have the same meaning tn

different contexts and languzgei. A quest such as thu, fbi a new and nuie
harnronlous mcicty Tnusr nai give In no the cempotloo -of seeking unanimity
.

by Ignoring disagreements, or admir to defeat beEore the battle begirif on

seeing die penii of such an ambitious and diEfLcultundenaking. However, the
human malaise is also a reflection of the present dangerous march towards a
schizophrenic world.

Toavrdi 9 icirkcphmuc itvrid

How can we speak of a global socjety when to many conuadictory forces

are CKcrGsmg their power on soceties and indtvLduais . tossed about in a
huntcanc of events* We already have one iotx in 3 two world system
which has replaced the three worlds we have spoken about so facilcly in our
speeches, aitldes and tepotti The chreeworlds-Thclndusiilaliiedone, the
second one mainFy con stiEuted by die Communistcounu'ici of caateinEuiopc
and the undcrdcvdoped Third Wcffid— arcDo more.
Tbc second wc^ld asiuch is The term 'Third World' has llcde
disappearing.

relevwwe.Snce Bandung and the beginnrngofihe movement of non aligned

countries In 1^5, Is anything much left in common between the Asian Dragons
and Bangladesh,., and Halil> Between Morocco and Kuikina Faso^ And In
Brizil. between the uuealihy fendunrlalEjcdrcglomDi Mo dc Janeiro and Sao

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 ;

The Human Maiauf • SI

Paulo and th? north-«st of ihe coimliy where people ue suffeiljig (ram
si^rvdUon Jitd mjlnumcon/
Diversities oE Interests aie. of course, as obvious within countrjes and
legtaas as on ibe Jntcm^tioEtjl scene which cancems lU beie. Deep
dichoiomtes existing In iItho St jilcoun [Ties, muluple standards of behavlDut,
and hypocritical scnoni irs much ihf ^am^ wirhin and among natloru.
RccoiKl]|JllaEi of inteiesis on the national scale would hivc to be sought as

part of the global haimonization proces.

Invlewofthis we shot] Id note soin-e of the more distressing <Ii?parltiej and
unresolved are^ o£ conflict which ave relevani to the world loenei

— the dUparicy between the nchand the poot wldi an IncieasEng number of
people living bekiw the line of atMO-Jutepoveity, (leu than list 370 pet year
Jot one bllbon peoEJc in 190O|

— the gTo^vjng dijpariry between thwe who have accc^ to kixjwiedge >aA
(nfoimaiioii jnd those whc do not:
— chedlschmlnatlonnotonl^againstreligiotuotethnicinlnoiftja, butalsoin
SO many <ounQi«p ^Inst aid people,

— the equal d1«pen$a don of

abser>ce of |unke; social

— Uckof cqualtl^ht^ jndduOn. ofequilpdvilegeindtespon^ibiliiy:

— the of balance between
Each and discipline license;

— the dispa^Kv between economic growth and the of quality life;

— the caring community vetsus the impccwnal welfare state;

— the of bjian« between material

LiCk necdt, an^J spiritual

Jn addition, we should mention various gaps that aj^ contributing to the

human m^biie, for example, dwUd; of under sanding b«w«nthcdiic^nd
the muses, the separation between science and culture, and the conflict
between rationality and mtuiGon.
There arc a vast numbei of dJfteteiKes between human beings and these
have hitherto been regarded as being rreconcilabtc nffcrcnces
1 In values and

in cthtcal Interpret tron are ptesenr throughout the fabric of world society.
Once agjin^ we reach the conclusion thai only through the uitquc3lloiili;g
acceptance all over the world of a common code of elbicSp directed towards
the survival of the race and the living planet, can divergent Intcresta be
harmtxilzed or, at least, mutual tolerance be thieved.
MoKof ±c fdccuol thii milai^e dte not new Whdi: makes diem
, part of this
first global revolution is the worldwide dimension that characterizes them.

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82 • The First Giohal^RtPoiution

even jf they exist io varying degrees Indifferent places Thert is no doubt that
the present nends ^nd duejts we are contending with are induced b-y a ioic

of mind influenced by both the globahty of these coniemponry situations

and the fears and aggress iv^ncss of oar felJow hutnanSr

 The Challenge

iUcvct in the coursr d hlsrory his huininity been faced wlih so many rhrcau
anddingcrs — caQpali^unprcpucdinm J world whcr^ tim^ and disancr
have been abolished, and where min is sucked inio a global cyclone of
CLjnTu&lon. swidjng with seemlEigJy unrelaied factors, ihc cau»c» and ihc
consequences oJ which form an Inextricable miic. We have, in the preceding
chaplers, set out a number of causilbctorMbenLostlinporQnt of which are
inequlubk ctonomit giowdi, dctcrionDon m govcminte ind die opaaLy la
govern, uncertain globj] food security an-d A3[er avaibbilirv, environmenQ]
damage and etseigy ^horuges, populauoo growth and migraOons. and die
upheaval of world geosmtegic iacts. All diese (actors are interdependent^
interactive and ccxisQiute what bas been called the world ptoblenutique by
the dub of Etome,
Though die public ha^ acquired a relatively belter grasp of these facts,
awareness of some of them is all loo often coupled with the ignorance of other
has. which ue lu less impoiisn t on^s. as welE a of tho true breadth of each
ofdiem and the tnteractloi] between ibem. We must also ttote chat the
clemenu of the new pioblematique do not strike all people In the same wjy.
Seme, such as [he dangers threatening tRjr environment, affect mar^ind as a
whole. Otheti, luchasfhcpcpulaiion explosion In die countries of the South,
apptir to be of moic naitow concern, but have icpctcuaions of varying
degrees oi intensity on every country in the world without exception.
Finally, at the coming turn (^ the century, manttnd is t>verwhelmed by the
range of the difficulties confronting it from all sides^ overwhelmed - and the
word Is not too sttong — becau$e the tradidonil structures, govemmenis and
msDtuQons can no longer manage the pEdblcmj In dicit present dlnncnsions.
To make things worse, the archaic and unsuitable sEruciure£ are ihernselves in

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 84 • T/xFmt GUM lUvoluam
the midsT of j ihk moral q{\%\%. The dtnppeannce of vjIuc ^y^iems, the
qucsikonln^ of uvJlilom, i^collipK of idcoLoglcs. ihe absence of a gbbai
vision . [he limits of (be current pracOces of demooacy— dll conirlbuEr to thr
void confronting focietics, [ndividuih ftel helpless, cjughl, js il were,
between the rise of pievlomly unknown pedis on the ooc hand, jnd an
] ncjpaciy to rnolvf \hc complex lssu» in dmf jnd itiack the roots of evil,
not just lis consequences, on [he other hand.
Suies with consiiiuncRiil bws and rights vkoUie mcemaHonal law
whenever the matter is solely one -of naoontl iniercsi. This [s not real ly new
but the magnitude of the consequences In ui interdependent world IS loally

fKW dnd ^lobilly vJubJc, KcLigitmi ohm sctvc as in ceclik for fnofeldal
Lebanon in the name
5Uife. ChristUns massacre other Cbrisdans in lielaiid or
ofrehglous beliefs without thij having anything whatsoever to do with faich in
the Cod of the beatiiudes. How car we not be concerned, along wldi many
Arabs and Muslims, about the holy wars conducted in the name of Allah,
which cast no moie than a ihin veil over the ambitions of war -chiefs who lltde
beed the teachings of the Koran? How can we not wonder, along with many
Israelis, about the confusion of the religious misiSioii of the people of Israel

dcsaibcd in the Bibk *ilh the offertstve aftncxaiion polity of a government

which is shamelessly violating the United Nations laws to which they have
subscribed, at least In writing^
The Taw of the |ungle may have been on the decline, but Its recent
resurgence shows }ust how ^gile world balance has remained. Such fragility
lies i\ia in the hc^m ^nd \tx minds of men. the uftimpotnit cid:£ens of
helpless nations. What we observe today is a general malaise which strikes
men with stupor, paralysis and unnamed tears. Will we let outselve^ be
t:rushed by a prob-lcmatique that seems to demand superhuman efforts, when
wc ourselves are at Itsrom^ Will we let ourwlvcs be turned away fiom the

real sokes and take refuge in a lite on the margin of society ot in i quest for
|)ersonal success, ignore our individual sodal responsibility' MusC we abandon
ourselves to a sort ot fatalism that would consider the slow decline of
humankind as inevitable or Insutmountable?
This is the formidable challenge we are ^Ing today. We shall now try to
examine the possible responses to this challenge. A global challenge IC^UlEO
a global approach-

TlinBniKpOurllv«runoul,amJye[ w^dTE ijn^blp to overcome our

'lablf urge for acqulrinv more dnd more wordly possessions r

Ad I Shdnkdfdcliaryd
&6\ century Hfndu pTillosoprt^r dnd uini

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 PartU

The Resolutique

Introduction

Wt rrLfif mJongfr taa for lomorrDif-, ii Kds lo \x invenEed.

Wha[ coii$Utiif« out ibJllfyTD take cfF'Cctli'c action^ OfBdilvocabulat^doa

not always suffict to dtFlne new situaDons and new irchnologla. Wc
somedmes have no choice t>u[ co Invent new woids which expicu new
concepG ot new mcibodologle;.
Such was the case of the 'world problemail<jue' > term si^cned by the
Club of Rome when It W3& founded in VkA. 3[\d the force of fict:^ hi^ m ^de |[

universal. Since then, progressively Increasing awareness ol d number of

elements of the problematlque has led to an unprecedented Intcnutloial
phenomenon; Increaalngnurnbcrsof conferences, seminars and symposlurm
In the private as well as the public sector have been prLmarjLy devt^ed to the
disru&sjon of ^ drvelopmcoi of poof countrlci. I( would rxii be corrnrt to
say that such meetings have had no rcmiii and no bcnefldal effects. The
figures published In an official lepoil of the Canton uf Geneva are js follows:

[n 1977. ^J.ooo experts took part In 1,020 nxcilngs on the Third Wotid,
reprcsenUng 14,000 worfc sessions The oi luc meedngi can be added Co the
regular day to day work of the 20,000 international d.vU servants of the 110
tntcmalional organtalloils that have their headquarters in Geneva.

I- CumemporarT Frendi phlloKiphci

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

 .

86 • The fmt GMml Eipolution

Wc mujtal» include the ihousands d mutiiiEi held^iii ihc IMiied Kiiions

bcadquaitcts Jn New York, Jt the WoiLd B^nk in Washington, by the
European Community In Btusfebn In the FAO' In Rome ind In counties

rcgk)nj] ind jubrcgjondl ^g? Jidn eh cbe drvrloping rountrln. Jn thineen

yoTs, ihfrf has been a runaway Increase in ibe number of meetings of this
sort jnd no one has ever raalled ihe budgecs thus sunk Into [^c fares,

luxury hotels and thf pubbcaOon and dlstrlbudon of sundry reports and
recommenibtions. Not only hu llttlcpf ogress bwn obstrvrd In thf fidd. but
wc must also acknowledge that poverty, t^m^ic dnd nulnutntkjn hav?
conUnued Co tnaeasc nuny countries In the South. Aji analogous
in a great

phcromcmm hds been observed more reccndy where aivlronmenfal

piobiems aic concerned, mvoiving in jncredibie multiplication bciof
Without bdng totally exempt from altdctsm in this context Itself, d^ Club
of Rome noticed that teewas no progress from one meeting to die next,
with some ETLcetuigs yielding often debatable and sometimes even mediocre
results. It wu thus felt that ][ was no Longer acceptable, at le^st ^i F^r 3S the

Club was coiKemed, to speak ot the problematique without formulating

plans and procedures that would solve the problems set forth and analy^.
The global approach to problcrru a& required by the problemarique ImpLej i
need for a corresponding approach with a global perspective at every level of
society to inieractive solutKjnA destined to xXvt the problems. Therefore, a

new n^ethodology or a new and purposeful ana^l; intended to be an annver

to the world probleniatiquc Is cxacdy what dw Club of Rome means to adopt

and call die wM rw/utuiuc.

F-rovldlng conaete solutions to the complex problems of the gteat

transition we are undergoing may be well beyond our capacities but It Is our
duty, at least unto ourselves, to search for solutions and saaiegles which lead
toeffidcncy and equity. We musitakc the IniUitivc In overcoming situations
diat: by LnKm^Oonal dnd naUonal buietuoKks, and by
die blocked
conventional and negative attitudes to change Our task In also to encourage
social and human innovation which, whe-n compared to its cousin,

technological Innovation, has definitely been treated ^i j poor relation of ifie

family. We would like to emphasize once a^ain thai by the term

'tTKilullque', we are not suggesting a znetiiod of ^ttjcking all the elements of
the problematlque at the same time in all iheir diversity. This- in any case
would be imposlble Out ptoponl Is rather a sbmulcaneous attack on Its main
,

elerrrenti with a careful comideridon in each case of redproal 1mpaa& h^^m

each of the others.

\ Focd Jnd A^culnirr Or^uJailon [of UN)

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd irrateriaal

 .

The Resduu^ui: Introduition * 87

Whai arc the valircs and goals on which action must be hascd' The world
rcsdutjque includes the need for adopting ccitain values Founded on the
iMoM vataD ot humanliy. that are sketcbll^ emerging as a moral cdde for
Klion ind bchdvkiur. Sudi codn and vdlu« hive Lo constitute the bash of
IntemalLonal reldbons dnd the source of in^ii iration for decisions made hy ibe
main saors on diis pbnet, ^vith duf regard toi culimj] diver^my jnd
pluralism. The resolutique also sucs^cs die absolute necessity Co seek concrete

results In pdorky areas oftheproblematiqur, keeping In mtnd that the time

factoi becoming essentia]. Any problem thar remains unsolved pioduces in
is

due couisc Ittevpislble sliuaQons, some of which unnot be solved even In a

global framework
The Club of Rome and Its Individual members have always felt tha.1 apart
from their research work they also had to take the Initiative or become
associated with others. Fot: Instance, the Club members are involved In the

[ntemadonal Institute for Applied Systems Analysis {.IIASA), the Foundadon

fct intctnaQonil Training (FlTI and mote rcccncly^ in the Jntcrnad<wl
Paitneiship Initiative ilPI J We must also mention the Sahcl Operation against
desertificaDon and in favour of development, with the Involvement of the
local populabons. which was designed and launched al the request of a
number of African leaders during the Club of Rome meeting at Tuundc,
Cameroon in 1986.
The use of the resoluuque applies to urgent action on prlarines and
Immediacies. This does not exclude other types of acnon, which though not
Immpdiacplynecrsury, can aim foi long teim results. In [he lifting uLiutJons
of the present, there \i a paramount need to develop methods of decision
making In conditions of uncertainty.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 7> The Three Immediacies

The myn^d ^iiands -of change which togfihrr arc constituting thp world
:cvoluDini hive to be undcrsioodp rcldCcd, oppa^d. encaufagcd diverted co ,

other ch^nncts. or Gs^] mi Idled. Thtre can b? no umpk solution or package ot

sotutions tothe tangle of probtems. K-ence we Introduce the co7K:epE of ihe
resoludque, an approach which con&isD oFa sim ultaneous and comprehensive
attack on die main problems a! cLvr^ kvd. It is coherent in that it arrempts to
look at the consequences of possible solLilk>ns to particular elementi of
difficulty on all levels, oi as- many levels as possible. No comprehensive
mcchodology exists foi such an approach; li runs counter to traditional
raediods of planning, and existing instirudoiul snuaures nt ^Ingubrly
inappropriate for it. Yet there l^ no aliemaOve. To tackle the gbbal
ptablematlque pioblenx by problem and on a country-by country basis can
only worsen the situation. The n^'^l' chat faces us Is, therefore, to grasp a
ihoosand netdes at once.
|[ IS icuc thdt much thought has been given in recent years to the
management of complexity, and some elements of a sultabJe approiach
have emerged, in particular, jay Forrester's studies of large systems,

described Ln his books, Ufian Du^tnia' and Incdu^nd^ D^mu^' ^which led to
Tlir Uiiii^ to Qicvlh] have much to offer, as also Ln ^jplema die DnEix' by
|acqu« Lcsoufne,

1. FoiTftCci. I*i9
2. Foircjtei. 1061

i. I,c«umc. L9J3.

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Missing page
Missing page
 The Thrte ImmtduKtes • 91

bf camt mort and mor? capital imoislvc jnd r^uircd fewer workei5-
Thus, even the parttdl Liquid jiion oi [be ums Induidy brings m^n^
pEoblcms, and quick conversion of piano and of whole IikIuaTtIm xq the
production of omsiirner md odier clYlUin goods has to be conskleted
uigcndy. In the USSR and China, large scale dcmobilladon and conversion
effo-ns have been Inlctiied a» a maoet of nadonal policy jnd dlrrctrd, as
expected, by die centre In bolh these countries ihece was jn enormous
scarcity of conjumer goods, agncultur^E machineiy. Tnedical equipment,

machine tools, and die like, so that conversion Erom arms production to the
produojon ofsuch goods was seen as highly desuabler Such endeavours have
ubcn plicc in conditions of minim^J. pubhc jccounablllty and economic
chaos, giving little usfful experience tocountiles with a market economy r [lis

certain, however, that the retraining of soldiers and armamenc wt^kers to

provide them with new skills and new jctitudes is diffkuLi and insufficient.
te contrast. In the Western market -economy countries, only Sweden has

developed an kcIvc policy of conversion; moac of die other* have adopted a

wjlt-and^sec attitude- Nevertheless the conversion issue Is being discussed

actively in most European countries, except In France despite the htx that

much of LIS weapons manufacturing tapidiy, mosdy state owned, is already

lying idle,
Convecsion of arrns plants to constiucUve civil uses is thus the currently
accepted remedy, but in the industrialized countnes this presents m^ny
difficulties. Existing ^^aa fsirc attitudes assume that the market forces will t^ke

arc of the mnsition. This may be so, but the mafor consequence Is likely to

be a lot of waste ^- resulting ^m abandoned and unwanted plants and

extensive unemployment. State owiied n:ianufaciurlng labilities and
conuacton chat have served the needs oF the military foe long are often
lnca.pablc of handling new manufactures in a market environment. Grassroots

anion on [he part of employees, n^e unk)ns, local communities, jihI so on,
holds out some hope In a few countries, but is unlikely to secure sufficient
Institutional backing in the absence of clear governmental policies. DItea
intervention by the state is unlikely and wouU in my case be Imptacdcal
because of bureaucratic rigidity. HowcveTn the state must play an acdve lole.
in view of the jctlous nature of the priority changes involved. The snccesis of
any compiehenslve convetsion schenv will depend heavily on the availability
of extensive retraining bdllties which -only governments can provide. It may
wel] be that governments will be forced Into taking action by the pressure of
public opinion and giassroots agltadon. This ts anotbec example of the need
kn people's power.

The question must now be raised as to what the products of the convened

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Missing page
 TTk Three Immedtaiia • 93

Wto A bewildering technological nightmare, impenetrable even to the

decision -mjking polsEklans. These scientists are isolated behind walls of
scciccyr They live dnd wozli outside the InCematJonj] wentlfic community.
Aldvjugh duy must include nuny of the best brains, their nam« are largely
unknown. Unlike other scientists, tbdr Eewards and presdge do not come
from sflistf of jchievement arvd the rwpcct of their pwrs In the inwmaaonal
scientific community, but from competitive success within their restricted
circle.

Whatihenwillhappen to these people in J sitLution of disarmament' Will

ihcy be convened and )otn the ranks of academic and indiisiiialsclenusts, or
wdl diey remain ai ih^ir work devising still more deadly weapons, hopefully
,

never TO be used U r is too early to say, but till now the letter seems to be the
most likely outcome, probably coupled wid^ decreasing employment dnd
resources. The l«0 yearbook of SIPRI Lthe auihoniatJve Stockholm
Intcmanonal Peace Heseatch InsOtute) asserts that there Is no evidence Eh^i

iher« will be i slower pace of technological dev«lopmeni in the milttary arej.

This key element of armament manufacture IS largely outside publicscrucinv
and concern Since It withdraws so many of the best scientific and engineering
.

brains from fully amstrucUve acuvicy, it ls Imponani that this matter js

discussed and the situation made known to all.

In conclusion on wc summarize some sugg'estlons for action.

this theme,
Feat of nuclear war between &k superpowers has receded, but die limited
use of chcmicji. biologicjl and nuclear weapons in loal wars remains in
alarming possLblhty . It is widel y believed that several counuies alr-eady posses^
a hidden nuclear capacity. We suggest therefore that a new appeal be made
for fidiicftnu it ikt nfn-fjohfnaiioii iJtil^. and for willingness on the part of the
signatortestoaccepi tnternationalmspecnon. We also plead for a speeding up
of nfgotidDt?tis iimfd u destroying research on chemical and biologtcal
weapons.
In vtcw of recent agreements on diurmament and the prospect of further
progress in diis area- we appeal to all governments with sizeable but dec fining
arms industries to msututeiVliKfffkvt/iTrElvrUfrrKiiUn of these. Can we hope
that thh reconvcr^icin be to the mdnufacture of products th^i will
will

contribute to the health and welfareofd^ir people' Such policies should be

evolved and Implemented wjth the advice of bodies which include
progressive mdustriallsts ^and not only those from aim-amenl manufacture)
together with worker$' reptesentatlvcs and government officials. The
conversion policies should be shaped in recognition of the chiinging
nature of Industry and with due regard to the conslrarnts imposed bv

Auteursrechteljjk beschermcf matenaal

94 • The Fmt Global R^voiutwn

cirth-wdrrtiingand othcr cnvJroEiiH?ntdl hlurdsr In aU &uch Khrmn in

cucntial clement should be the srning up of leiiaining schemes to provide
workers with the necesuiy new skills.

In con&idcrlng the ridtpii^ni sf iinamal ani elhu TOMna scl Eecc by

diminished military expenditure- governments should give priority to the

Imptovcmcm ot ihc socUl ^miautc. In p^tUcul^r. grc^i tffor b i\^ requited to

Improve the quality of educdllon. in order to provide cttzens with the
knowledgeindskilknecesssry For achieving fulfillment In work and Insure in

the new woild which is emcrgmg. Instriving For world harnnony, part oE the
resources should be used Eo augment existing assistance to development ud
For tFie alleviation oF world poverty.

The present historically signlFlcant situation of t^ittAt should be used to

reveal and curtail the evils oF the arms trade. In]9£6, the president oF the Club
of Rome, on the bails oFflmcmofandumswi by Eduatd Peiicho Pttsldcm
Reagan and General Scaetary Gorbachev, put forward j proposal foi chc |omt
action o-f the Two supcipowcis m
llmlDng the sale oF arms to the poorer
coumiics While there wa$ only a formaUcknowlcdgcment from the White
House, a personal and -constiuctvc reply was scnT by Mi Gorbachev,
folbwed by a mcmorandgm oF fgrxbci [cflcctions On \\k sup^esuwl The
correspondence was given Full coverage by the press and television m USSR
and East Europe, but was hardly noticed by the press in the West It seems to
iJMhatihcilmel!T]pefo[[hcrevl«lofthlsp[oposal,natonlyin[hcLJSAand
USSR, but also m other major aims exporting countiies- Recent events
demonstrate the Futility of the evil iradeandhowilcanhave a lethal backlash

when the turnof events gjvcs rise to unforeseen conflicts. One has onl y to cite
the success of the Fiench manufactured Exocet missiles in sinking British
ba ttleshi ps during the Falklandswdi. or the situation oF the ti oops oF Western
and Arab countries in Saudi Arabia facing . Iraq's sophisticated weapons sold to

them bv the Russians, the French and the among orheis. To sell gun^
British

for Immediate moncuty gam to buyers who may inicnd lo kill the scllci
seems to be the uliJmaie insanity.

In rhe long run. if rhe security of the planet Is to be assured, the

manufacture of arms For the ecor^omic gain oF individuals or countries will

have to be conttolled. ILesidual needs For world policing will have to be
provided under the supervision of the United NjDon^. T\\\i may not be
required for tomorrow, but there Is nevertheless a need for an early review
of the whole pioblem , all die moce so since the confrontations in the Persian

Guif will have long term consequences.

Tffwayds an envavnntmt ^ ivrpjval

Most of the successful activity in recent years for the pioienion of the

Auleursrechteiijk beschermd materiaal

 TheThtcImnvdviaa '95

pnvironmmthas be? n in rtdudng or ? limiruCing pollution and othf r ^orms of

dfCcnoratiofi; lE hjs bftn curjilvf rallvr th^ prrvcnOvf Whilf this must .

conclnuc, the mafn emphasis In the future mmt be in piCTcnting The

development of the mjcropollutton which wc- have dcsciibcd earlier, to the
level at which Its effecls are irrei/ersible. By hi the most urgent of thesf Is

global warming which chicaitni (he world's Nonomic ^nd ioaal jyflnn.

PrevenDOf] of globdl waiming tepc«eni± dik of the grcjtea chaJlengn

which humdniiy his f^ed.jnddenuTid&inlmerrLJtional effort. Four linn of
jiQck aie lequiied:

— redMcqofl of rhe global emission qf arbtti dioxldcj which will man d

reduction In the lase of fossil fuels;

— affbrestatjon, especially m :hccn:»plcs-

— development of hemaOve umrces of energy;

a

— conservation of energy and the dcvclopmcm of grcaict efficiency in Its

use

We f hall bax out diKusion of tile c^ibon diaxidc situatjon on die Toronro
changing atmosphere' target of reducing emiuion of this gas by 20 per ceni by
the year 20OS However- In view of the urgent need of the developing
countries ro provide energy for their citiiens, and for agriculture and
industries, the industrialized countries will have to make even larger
rcduciiDti^ in their use of f«iil fuels — let us uy Kl per cent. Moreover,
recent estiznates indmic that this is a very conservative figure.

Initially, the highest prbricy musE be given to energy conservitlan and

efficiency in the transmission and use of energy In every sector of die
economy.Therearevery large potential savings to be made which would, in

^ny case, be economically UKful and jDaiegically necessary it^ view of the
v;.tne:abllity of the industrial countries to the cutting off of oil supphes. In

general, the market forces should be helpful here, but at present, incentives

are insufficient and will have to be increased There are also many nor
market barriers to energy con^rvaDon In the domcsnc sector, for example,
the per capita consumption of energy in USA arxl Canada is approximately
double that of the West European countries with an approximately equj
valent standard of living- To achieve the necesury savings here will require
fundam^nuil char^ge! in the habits of millions of Individuals, i i^ue&iion eo

which we shall return later.

The immediate need, therefore, is for the launching of a massive

worldwide campaign to pron:>oic energy conKrvation and efficiency in tt^

Auteursrec Intel ijk beschermd matenaal

96 • Tht Bra GU^tai Revoiutifm

UK, This alone can give us some breaihing spjce before wc hcc di? iTure
inciactabic problems of tndustilil d<i|ijSTmcni. To be successful k wlj] need j
deirly expressed political will on the part of governments and suaiig public
suppoti,
Swtiching from oil and coal toother fuels hu jIso been suf^ested, but apart
from natuial gas there are few altemaDves which couid be brought Into use
quIckly^ Naiuial gas ha^ the advani^ thai m combusuon die methine
tnoltCuif pi^uCcs les& carbon dlojtide per unit of energ'y genented as
compared to the bngcr chain hydtocatbons of oil ^nd coal. Convctslon to
ruturjl ^s Is relatively simple, so this may bca useful measure aliho^jgh ^rcat ,

care would have to be \Akcv\ to prevent leakage, since methane i& itself a
greenhouse gas, being much more active nwlecule hy molecule than carbon
diOKldf.
ThcK ate, however r only palliatives or delaying measures , The
Fundamental l^uc Js hoMF to achieve a nussTve jcducdoci in fosil hjel
combusOon tn industry. ]t is frequently Jtsted that the transltktn lo the
post-industna] society will lead to considerjble energy saving. Ei is 'ue rhar

chc miaocleotonic techmlogin dtc not energy Lnt^nsive, jnd thai their

main applications are in the growing, imponani iniornuEton seaor, rather

than in heavy ii>dus try where, however thtough control techniques they can
,

contribute gceatly to energy erficlcncy. We have to cemember. after all, that

^n an Infotmatlon domlrtated society we shall still need heavy machinery,

chemicals arul othc^ f^diOonal manntactuTCSj |ust as agricultural products
were still needed after the Jndustrial Revolution had l^en over.
Reduction in the use of fossil fuel bv industry, M. least in the ^liort and
medtum term, requires ekther considerable technological mnovaQon, both in
manufaauring methods and in the energy efficiency of those in present use,
or else a drastic reduction in Industrial activity. This last would necessitate a

radical reonenQEion t>f the ecoriomy taking into account the intricate

relatkjnships of economic activity, ecology and technology. Thi& is not a task

which govemmcfiB can be cjtpecwd to perfbtm effectively: It cjIU for new

forms of government industry cooperation. Hae the Japanese model may
have something to teach the West.
A number of European countries, nottbly Norway, Sweden and the
Netherlands, are already discussing these problems seriously and determining

largcc^ foi [hdr national contribudtvis towards thf rrducnim of the global
carbon dioxide. SMreden, tor example, has undert^en to maintain carbon
dioxide emissions at ine ^-9SS level .
while retaining its policy of phasing out

nuclear power, tiow these targets can be achieved Is another matter. These
Initiatives ace Indeed a useful start and similar exercises are needed m other

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 TheThne imtnediaaa • 97

countries, Coordiodt-ed cFfons jIso r^Jst di the InKmabonal level and ^r?
already being ^^udicd by (be EB:. The sociaJ and economic oim&e^juenccs-ota
dnsnc cuning back of IndusQlal acDvlLj are alarming and wiJl be lahen up
later

The influence of die devebping counoies on [he environmenr uill

increase rapidly with dfTMgraphic md indumial growth, and diey witl have
ID share the burden of &ubili2lng die gbbal cbmaie. Development In these
oiuntrlH wiil inevitably inaease the demand [or energy and much of this an
only be provided by fossil fuels. The Increased use of blomass through new
biotechndogi^s 1^ hoped for, but wemu^remembrr thdEthEstoogenerdln
Apin increaffdnumfjcn will mean gieat^t use of wood foi
carbon dioHkde.
domesDcpuiposes,uid the burning of wood hjsigreicei green fiouseeflea
than chat of coaJ. lincigy efficiency h thus oi primary Jmpoicance in the

developing countries too. So Br, Endustiializatkin In these countnes hs been

modelled on the pattern estabLidicd by the lE^ustrlaUzed counnies of the
North, If thmgs continue in (his way. the rnulo will be diustious for the

courttries in question and for the woikJ ai a whole. It Js therefore tmporunt

ihaTi the impioved cleaner technologies that the Industtiallzed countries are

striving tor are made accessible to the c^eveloplng world, mcEniives given for
their adoption < and aid offered in their irnplemeniation^

So far we have CDnccntiated on ca[bondto:ildc, die cU»k greenhouse giSp

bul a wfurle range of other minor components of the atmcisphcre contribute
ibo HI an equal e:iient to the greenhouse eEfecc, Methane Is one of the most
importani among these, and its origin requires much nnre research. Oxides
at nitrogen arc also critical. Their malE^ soutce Is ftom agticulture, especially
fram the present excessive uK of feitJitzers. This also laises the question of
energy use In agfjculture, which has increased gready in recent decades.
Theie is a pressing need for the agricultural author lites to take up the question
of making their Industry much less energy mipnslve md of iCTcning to more
organic systems. Thts-lsalso desirable because oil prices, and herxe the price
of nitrogenous feitlllzeis, ate likely to be much higher in the coming years

Whjtpver I fffg ^rr ttw, Earth, may flrat Fi^vpqukk gnjwth again, O
purffkr, may are not j^iure [hy vit^l^ or rFiy h«drt.
Hyinn [othe Ejnh', Arftarvj Vedi^OOO BC

We have already stressed the need to halt deforesiatlon as the another

means of carbon dioxide reduction. It Is estlnnated that for the world as a

wbokp d qudner of the emitted arbon djojiidc tcmdins due to dcforestaDon;

wj[hin the developing countries taken as a whole, it is one half and li Laim

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Missing page
 The Three Immaiiaaes • 99

measuring, Eorciampk, tht cipKilyotcounErinroFsuppoctiti^humin jnd

anJrrul popuL^iion^, oi the vUbilliyothumin and oihes ^y^t^ms. The belipF

dut monciary management or even manlpulaUon can lead to a proper

accounting and evaluation of groWiih and development needs to be

eradlcaied^

Energy, w the other handnlj the dMujng force In an economy; ffloncyis

simply lis surrogate. There is surelv i strong jrgunient at thissQgeof hunun
development tor deivising a new economic cheory bsed on lEic flow of
eneri^y. We hear many propo^^h for energy r^xatjonwhkh arc prompted by
present difficulties. Thoe demand comidcmion. Intctctlng ptopin^l^ have
ilso been m^de fot cacigy to be UKd n the bsiti fot general lajtation, both
rutEonal ^ local Many posLblllifei arc ^^ning up In this new field, and the
Clab of Rome has pioposed i nudy on the various suggesOons for energy

taxation for ihe purpose of cocitroUlng the energy camumpilon in tbc North
and ensuing diat in the South development should be on the basis of clean
cnergy-

]n concluslCRi on this tfieme, w/c summarize some sugge^clons for acnon.

It IS urgent that a worldwiJe campaign ior energy conservdtkjn and

efficiency In Its use be launched. To be succeuful. this will require that world
leader; strongly ejiprcu their convlcQon dial this Is nece^sarv jnd show die
pollDcal wilJ to implement It. ft would be appropriate that the scheme be
liurKhcd by the United Nations In association widi the UnJied Nations
Envitonmenr Progrunme [UNEP), the World Meierologial Organlzanon
andUnescOr A corollary would be the xtttng up In each country of an Energy
Efficiency Council to supervise the operation on the national scale.
The global nature as well as the seriousness of the environmental crisis,

especially that of ear^ warmlngn indicates the need for a coherent and
a)mprf hrtuivc artack at die iE^temational Irvrl jnd n ±e level cif the United
Nations. Wc require much more Information about the complexities of the
natural system and specifically on the detailed mechanism of the greenhouse

and ozone deplenon effects. Equally, an estimate of the probable tmpaa of

these and oihcr phenomena on the future climate of particular regions is

uigcndynccesMry.Wcareixnconvlnccd. however, thai thoc requirements

for research, development and monltoilng argue for the creation of yet
another UN Agency 1^ need could be met by strengthening the existing
agecKles. especially those mentioned above, and by glvlrig them a mandate to
enable them to cooperate In i pindy planned- compicbcnsivc programme of
research.
Even more urgeni is the need to create a competent high level body to

Auteursrecfitelijk beschermd matenaal

100 • The First GUAtU H/rvoianon

consider in depth and ov« 2 long nm< fram? the impact of the micro
.

pollution phenomcnj on the economy, the society jnd che indivlduil. In vJcw
f the nature of the Tnmy ^ceii of this problem and the coTnpleKtty of the
Intenction^ between them, it is hird to see how this couJd be accomplished
cfFccdvely In ihe conventional mmneiH hy a gtoup of poUdcal p^sonilttie;
sitting In New York. We suggfU, ihpiefoic, that (he opportunliy should be
oken to breik with indlban In cieadng a group oF outstanding persons—
pollocilfigures.^o, but idnfcffccd by IndlvlduaU from the fields of Industry,
economy and sdcnce. Et Is not sufBclcncthata^up consisting exclusively of
polltidaos should be chaiged with thh a^k, thar 1$ so vital foi the future of

humanity no mtvxx how well briefed chey mtght be, by scirniMs dnd oihea
t

in their various countiieSr [t Is necessary [or independent experts to sit with

ihem aiound the conference tible. Churchill dtd nocgei It quite right when
be Slid th^t scientists should be on tip bui not on cop.'
Security IS no longer exclusively a mitier oEprevHiiionof uvar, Itieverslble
ctivutinmcnui dn^rucdon Is becoming ^ ^^ucii 10 world sccuilty tn the utac
magnitude. To meet the Eteeds expressed abovt. we dierefore lelteiate the
reconun«ndatlon In the Club of Etome dcdantlon of I089 that 3 workl
fonfcrenceon the common envlronmentaT iitiperativ^s be held, aimed II the
creation of a Ut^ Environmental Security Council, pariliel la the cuisUng
Security Council EormlllQiymatieEs. This body would not be lestilcted to the
members of the existing Security Council, but would have a strong
representation from the dcveloptng countries as well as the nonpolincal
members siiggrsted eitlicf who would uke jn active prt \n die discussions,
but would nolp however, be voting members. If not constituted earlier, this
could be a ma}or duel: Qme of the United Nations ConfererKe on Envtronznent
and Develc^mcnl to be bekl kn Brazil kn 1092,

Inaddinon. we propose theoiganiucion, pos&ibly under the auspkcsof the

EnvlronmenQl Security Couiudl, of regular meetings of IikIusctUI Icukn.
bankers and government officials from the five contlnentj. These Global
Development Rounds, er^visaged as being somewhat similar to the Tariff

Etounds of CATT, Aould discuss the need to harnioniTe competition and

cooperation in the light of envlroruncntal constraints.
The piobknu of dd|u&imem to the ic»cncd use of fossil fuels nctcKiatci
the drawing up of national strategies In order to ascertain the fixed
concnbuiion of e^bcDutitiy to global carbon dioxide. This will also Involve
comideradon of -how design modified processes arid equipmcntn atx] the
sdmulaHon of research and development programme for clean energy
systems We propose theccfoic the aeatioci- partkularly In the Induscriallzed
countries, ofNaOotuI Centres for Clean Technology. These might well be

Auteursrechtelijk bescherind matenaal

 The Three Immcdtaaes • LOl

organized in assodadon with c}m rudonaJ eneigy cfBdcncy coundb propo4cd

above.
The urgent need for jn Inlcmlvt cEion to develop allcmaDve energy
&0U1CC5 10 paniatl)/ replace bsJl fueU demand} an immedlaie and massive
wotld cfFon. Wt rtcommcnd- therefore, ihai the Unlied NaUom- either

direftly OT through a group of lU agerv^ii^ aivd piograrrtmes, ihoiiid fOHvene

an Inicr-govcmmentaisciennELc meeting 10 plan dcomprehensivcAlteinanue
Energy World Project This would enuil considerable rinancial expenditure,
with the vatkius element oE an intecTiationjIly agreed programme being
carried out by d^ tatxx. appropriate centres of ncellence^ In the world,

Irrespealvp of the counir>i in whith. [hey are iltuated. The mattfr 1c so

imponani to the ^vorld. and the need \a cmpby rhc bey brains ^nd
equipment so cucntidl, that all prirKiples of a n^oiulqiikdproquo between
contributions and bcrxflts would have to beeiduded. \ network connecting
thcexisdng centres orexceJlence1shl^lyrecomn!>cnded as oppo^io the
construcOon of a single Iniarutlonal centre with its Incviablc rigidities and
burauoacles. The nuclear fission option should b« kept open as an
emergency measure to meet energy lequiremcnts during the transltkmai
phase.
The FAO should be In^tted Ir association wJlh the Consultative Croup of
[[iftituus 0^ Agr^cuitutjJ Ete^eaich ^CGIARJ to undertdkc a Audyon cncLgy
used in agriculture, with a view to recommending means of reducing energy
inputs tn agricultuic and, at the same timcn of lessening the share of
agriculture m the emission of grcenhcrase gases.
All these measures or any ocher equivalent actions cannot be Implemented
unlns the public Is well Intotmed and understands the conscquerKes of
InactloUr It js neceuary, therefwe, that concepts of global dcveic^ment.
Including the issues of Industrialization, \x integrated Into educauonai
piosnmmcs which will Include tnstructkin on environmental pnxeokjn,
energy and resource saving, the preservation of cultural values, and nuny
other aspects. We therefore call on Ur>cso3- Manistcts of EdiKatJon. parents'
associations, television authorities, md odiers to undertake this essential task

/3oT/op«vwf vrrim Mti4(nk^ tiffmen

The third immediacy Is a crucial element In the first global revolution

A number of countries of the South are in a constant scaie of detenoraDon for a
nun:^ber of causes which we will analyse later. According to World Bank
estimates UOQO). one billion human beings rn those countries arc presently
living belo* the poverty line - with an Income of lc» than USt "0 » yeai - a
opposed to 500 million in the early dghOcs. It is i^ry likely that die

AuteursrechtGlijk beschermd matenaal

102 • The First GMmiRfPviuaim

aggnviboil of the [»obleEtu ai undfrdfvflopment, poverty, ^minc uMJ

malnualbon will pctsfsc iJi the coining yeta. desplK ihe building up oizona
o[ circcpckmal develi^nicni.
Here tt Is Importani Co keep in mind che dlFFereni economic levels from
which these countries soned out. been stiessed In dils book. Ii Is
^incc. 35 has

no longer corrca Co neat the so ailed Third World as homogeneous.

In pjitkcular, weir? conternedaboulf be leisi developed naironi,mo^[ of

whidi ire in Afcka. md many of which gurted iheii Lndepoidcncc From die
colonial powers only in die posi World Wn II pcnod. The&e countries either
hid CO son from sctaich, Of iccempi to conveit i colonial economic structure
Inix) one which had to be otienccd more cleaiLy co dome^dc needs and
national Jntcrests. This entailed diversifying both exports jnd sourcn of
financial support.

The NlCs [Newly IndmTrlalized Couniiies) of Asia have lad i different

experience, bued on a ^cp^rdtc strategy, and have been remaikably
successful in jdapting to the world economy and In raisfng ihcix own Ijving

sDndards. Other countries, particularly India and China, have quite different
charicterlsdcs from the least developed countries and the dynjinic market

economies of the hdfic Rim. The Latin American counErie^ with 1 ]aag
history of independence arc nevertheless highlv dcpendcnE on trade In basic

commodiites. At [he ^^me dme. In seven! mafor ases. chev are undergoing
raptd industrtalizatlcRi. Among the ijOa Amencan counLries, a few notably
wti\i economics are siniilar to the lean developed countries of the world.

THi Ii also true of the sirall Island suics of the Cinlbcan.

\n4dt^tittiti if itvdofJUdfl phiia in iht ftli\ Ivcnl^ m^Tir Many of (hf least
de'/eioped economies were encouraged to stact out by investing in huge
Industrial and Infristnictural prefects Involving high construction cosG based
tRi the <apiiaL intensive Wc^icin model, fhcy thereby seriously neglected
bsic rural and small industry development that could have brought
Immedtare benefit to laigc sectlcms of the popuTailon, In^teid of to only a
smaTlminonty of Industrialists. Manyofdiose large investments have failed In
thcLr objectives of development PolLCLCiadoptcdltom the Western industrial
countries have often cla^ied with local customs and. structures, and have been
teieaed by the very people they were supposed to benefit- People oriented
developmeni was set aside, in favour otprofecis that only rich countries could
afford. Not only wu this \tic result of th? desire of leaders to achieve
extremely rapid transfbrmaUon of economics and societies, but it was
their

akded. abetted and often proposed by Iniemauorul agencies and bilateral

North -Sou [h programmes.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 ThtThntlmmaliadti • 103

5uch poLdH It JVC roulicd im series of projects of long durations whfch,

among other ibcngs. have lounged m^j caunuics into debt and financul
d^order, with litilc folid benefit. Outsundfng imong theK have been the
Urge dams, of which A^wan^n Egypt is d Leading examplCp and many more
eximpln could be pointed out in African Asia and Ladn America, There has
been a CibLogue of djusiers. With pAS l«i»OiU b«lng t>dther learned iv^
understood, hur^reds of duusands of people displaced atid Idi horncles,
water -borne epidcn^ dlsea^o dissemjnaied, and local environment
disrupted. The ecological and human disastris which }uve frequently
resulted from [hese large projKti have caused unprecedented financial waste.

Macro project &uch as Itj^pu m hinA and the Nainjad^i pn^ica In [ndia lit
also lelhng examples, lion and sceel Industries, petrochemical ard
^ipbuilding mstallatlans. have mainly proved uneconomkeal and have come
in for much criticism. IMost of these protects have also given too lltde

consider Jtton lo probable environnvnial damage, to the effects o\ population

displacement, manpower needs, mainieiiiiKe, and x on.
many Ciscs. even In the semi 'industrialized countries, mdtiHnai
in

devdopnientbaKd on irnporrsubsrltudon policies requiring extremely high

tariff and non ta.tiff protection, has produced great disparioes between the

modern seaors and the traditionally poor rural sectors. As a result,

populd^ions have drifted to the big clQcs w provide cheap labour- pining the
already vast numbers of marginalized labourers also originally from rural areas
living \n subhuman conditions.

Hunser jshamed of no on? dnj] does not fnr God. Only organlaed
is

and conscious work can nukr it retreu.

a farmer in EUirkina Ytao

Iht ftijlt vt iht iluiTfj. \ki ftMlni und iht btdtmvtlUir The urban population of
developing countries rose from ninety million in lOOO to rtearly one billion in

19S^ and has since been rising al a rale of ever forty million per year.
Two-thirds of the population of Latin America is concentrated in urban
aiea5 while urbanization ill Africa Inaciscd fiom i rate of 5 pci cent in 1900CO
:5 per cent In l^S^ 6^ per ceniof the world's total urban population lives in

Asia, where the evolution of the rate of urbaniation IS comparable ) that of

developed counciles According to the latest United Nations estimates, the
numberof city dwellers u^ll be about two by the yeat 2C00, wtth a 100
billion

per cent mcrease in Africa, a 5D per cent increase In Latin America and a AS per

cent irKTease in Asia. There are a number of reasons for this.

Auleursrechlelijk beschermd materiaal

 ThtThntlmmaliadti • 103

5uch poLdH It JVC roulicd im series of projects of long durations whfch,

among other ibcngs. have lounged m^j caunuics into debt and financul
d^order, with litilc folid benefit. Outsundfng imong theK have been the
Urge dams, of which A^wan^n Egypt is d Leading examplCp and many more
eximpln could be pointed out in African Asia and Ladn America, There has
been a CibLogue of djusiers. With pAS l«i»OiU b«lng t>dther learned iv^
understood, hur^reds of duusands of people displaced atid Idi horncles,
water -borne epidcn^ dlsea^o dissemjnaied, and local environment
disrupted. The ecological and human disastris which }uve frequently
resulted from [hese large projKti have caused unprecedented financial waste.

Macro project &uch as Itj^pu m hinA and the Nainjad^i pn^ica In [ndia lit
also lelhng examples, lion and sceel Industries, petrochemical ard
^ipbuilding mstallatlans. have mainly proved uneconomkeal and have come
in for much criticism. IMost of these protects have also given too lltde

consider Jtton lo probable environnvnial damage, to the effects o\ population

displacement, manpower needs, mainieiiiiKe, and x on.
many Ciscs. even In the semi 'industrialized countries, mdtiHnai
in

devdopnientbaKd on irnporrsubsrltudon policies requiring extremely high

tariff and non ta.tiff protection, has produced great disparioes between the

modern seaors and the traditionally poor rural sectors. As a result,

populd^ions have drifted to the big clQcs w provide cheap labour- pining the
already vast numbers of marginalized labourers also originally from rural areas
living \n subhuman conditions.

Hunser jshamed of no on? dnj] does not fnr God. Only organlaed
is

and conscious work can nukr it retreu.

a farmer in EUirkina Ytao

Iht ftijlt vt iht iluiTfj. \ki ftMlni und iht btdtmvtlUir The urban population of
developing countries rose from ninety million in lOOO to rtearly one billion in

19S^ and has since been rising al a rale of ever forty million per year.
Two-thirds of the population of Latin America is concentrated in urban
aiea5 while urbanization ill Africa Inaciscd fiom i rate of 5 pci cent in 1900CO
:5 per cent In l^S^ 6^ per ceniof the world's total urban population lives in

Asia, where the evolution of the rate of urbaniation IS comparable ) that of

developed counciles According to the latest United Nations estimates, the
numberof city dwellers u^ll be about two by the yeat 2C00, wtth a 100
billion

per cent mcrease in Africa, a 5D per cent increase In Latin America and a AS per

cent irKTease in Asia. There are a number of reasons for this.

Auleursrechlelijk beschermd materiaal

104 • TbcFintGhbaJIUtvlufum

Ru^jI depopubtjon is consandy bringing sueams oF people Lnto the

outtkhts of the Urge cjtio. drjvcn hom ihcii bnd by povcny jnd the
Impossibility of survival, and sornctimes as Jircsukof local wars (some rwenty
tn Afr<C3 alone] or larger infr^sTiuctural projects causir^ &ie djiptaccmcnc of
the pop LilatEon , jndsoon IE \i Importancco jccepc, however due il chough

iuijI depopulation an be siowed down, lc certainly cannoc be flopped. One

reason is ihat cities exercise a powerful attrjcooTL on the younger section of
the runt population who wish to flee an unbe^iable poverty; for theie
youngster?, cities with their relitivc modernity represent hope. Another
teaion is that iay pro^cu m cbc aicd of agticuEtural production deprives i
growing pcrccnrtiEC of young prople of thdr work. As It happora! In

Western countries, they go to theuticsLn the hope oE finding a new kind of

work, even It H fs only small trades.
The true fascinailoi] exercised by the big dtfes on people, young jnd
not so-pDujig. is based on a set of latknaal and irrational human motivatiom.
A& MdRCi DogiO iiid lohn U. Ki^arda wioK In A W9Mo(Gmi Cj[«':

The diks act Uke a gigantic la Vegas in ihc sense diat the bulk of their
populabons are pmblers. though the games ate dlffnent. Iri&tead of

roulette or blackjack, their names die job security. Individual social

nubility, better access to educauon for the chkLdren am^ hospitals for the

sick. Wonderful storicE circulate about the happy ffw who nude It in i big
way.

Howeva. coDfronutLon, whrihec <!xpirs^rd in ^ quid at a violent way, \i

growing between the poor and the rich In developing countries. The Western
modeJ Ls denounced, yet at the same time is envied Jtkd hated because of the
impossibility of attaining It, The hatred felt by poor countries Cor the rich Is

aimed mainly at die West, especially aita most blaisni form In the Irnage of
the wcaldi and waste of Ameiitan society often seen on television , But It la

also directed against die ostentation, arrogance and easy lifestyles of local

elites.

City governn>cnls Have so fat been unable 10 control the trflow of migrant
workers and to prcFvide adequate Integration structures, and health and
education services for a new underclass &ai k vulnerable to all kinds of
diseases and can take to alt »orts of marginal behaviour such as prostitution and
drug dcaling-

TAf HfrJ /«r fupurdridP feUcia We turn again to the central issue of the

L Dc«^ inf Kannta. IW.

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd irrateriaal

 The Tbnr ImtfUiiviaas • lOS

popul^on rxplo^iorr whkh mu^ have Its place b the retoludque. Af already
sated, in many tountric* there Is » grim i»ce bcrwccn population giowih jnd
develcpnjcni 5q much ctpngmk imptOKmcni. achieved al rhe expCTisc of
so much human etFort Is consumed and Lost by the impact oF tncreaslng
numbeis. [n hindsLghi, one can onty mux about how piospeious counUJes
Sikh as India, so well endowed bjj rutufe. would t>e lodiy had they bMn jiblc
to maintain ihrti eaily cwenifeth cencury populittons^
There Is undoubtedly an uigcm r*ecd for ihese countries to adopt sensible
humanitarian policies of population tcgulatkm. and to encourage Esmily-
planning me^^urei which would complement the death control
^

achi^vemenii ushered in by improved medicine and belter hygiene. One of

the surest n-ieans of attaining lower fenjlLi^ rates \5 throu^ the spoinlancaus
prctceuet that fo[]ow economic improucment, but in many places this L$ a
^t off hope, nude even more distant by the high rate of population growth,
thus creating a vidou; circle.
A sclcna^c bttakditough in contnceptivc uxhno^y is alio overdue. e»
pccially luproiiuclngdieapand ^videly available oral at othci contraceptives
which would tcilitatc popubinon control. Also the direct coitehtion
between fertility and female illitetacy needs utgeni attenlujn and rexaich
Population control, neccsury as it Is. must be planned m terms of hum jn
well being. U is of paramoum impoiutKc that all counnics flnving fof
development should pay elose attention to the dcsi^ of their population
policies. These policies have to be based on a detailed e^tplorabon of the

demographic growth prospects in tebdon to resource availability and

development alms. Including the standard of living which each country hopes
to achieve. Only through an informed asse^im^ni of such prospects ciii

development planning be reailsDc. If thr public is to resptjnd to population

control needs, ii must be given sufilcLent information to und^stand the
dingers of oveepopuJacion foi every Individual and the benefits that would
flow from rcstramii on population growih. Such condtion.f are nec&sary IJ

population plaruijng Is to be Implemented fn a humanitarian way.

Tnr nui far ntw i\ti\cpa 1/ icviltjiatnl. [t Is thus dearly necessary to rethink
development policies and practices Much greater [wiortty hs to be given to
the needs of the marginalized and forgotten millions of rural pooi In all paits

of the underdeveloped world, it is necessary also to go back to first base and

quesdon the undeilyjng assumption of most development policies, namely
that the economLC success of the ptesendy Indusirliilzed countries, achieved

ditough the J)>5lcma[lc pujsult of 1 icdino-logy based economic growth, is the

Inevluble path that must be follov^ed bv all countries and all cultures. The

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

106 • Thr Fmt Gl<M Rcpoltttim

newer gcTfcradom In minvcauntnn.'wbEleby-Tiom^ansrelfcting tht ncpd

For modcrnizdiMm an^ mdtemi Improvement, tnsist on (he need to draw on

iheiir own Q^tdonsind skills in ere Jiing their ownpjtierm of dercLopineni.
[mtciilon Is not enough. It is mote impoitant Tor iuch countiies lo develop
thelT own capacit^n [or scienDik research and irchnologlal transfer, [n a
period of ra^^ sflcnufi^ ind rcchndogical change m the iivdusmalized
courirics. ihc linpocunon of oadiUQnal methods of minubaurc cm lad lo
bsolewence. It is rcmarkabk that In many countries that boisc of modem
industry and services, malmitrlttonsndinjterafy are widely prevalem.wldi a
laige pcrccnugeof the population living tn condlnoni of extreme poverty.
5omc of ihcx C3KS \a\-c been iku anmo^ -wwh incquiltEV ind
povcny actually wcnicnmg. It is dear that gtobal development cannot
conttnue along these linn. A reversalcf these trends, however, abo implies
radical chinge in the political systems, stability, elJminatKin of corruption, a
^cnfcng oF prloriOcs based on the needs of future generaitons, and strong

limitations imposed on the uncontJolLcd spread of cojrupi burcaucridcs.

In the semi Industrialized countries, especially in those that became heavily
indebted during die KvenUe^ and e»ghile$, the jd]u$Tmcnts that have had to

be made to maintain the service of iheir external debt and to reduce inflaboif

and waste, have forced diem to cancel Urge piojecu, id ledesign their

strategics, and, pariKulaiLy, lo reduce the scope oFthe public sector and
provide strong incentives instead to domestic private entrepreneurs , An
important role can be played by direcr foreign lnv«rmcni in xhis process.
Mjny countrm havp had no altern^uve bui to aeiie condidons
of [hesf
under which their industries must become hitematlonally competitive,
folkjwlnp to soir: ejctcni the experience (rfthe Pacific BJm copntrto. This
process has sometimes been going on atlbeexpense of the domeBtic market
and with great sacrifice in terms of los of employment and regular salaried
Incomes.
We cannot ignore die fact that in many countries, especially In Africa south
of die Sahara, too low a priority has been given to agricultural Improvement,
This Ls due pardy to inflated hopes of w^hat might be achieved by
rndustrialliailon and partly due to die fact that IndusuEes arise mainly in or
near cities and d:us attract immediate attention. ]n unstable political

situations, danger to the anihoritles is generated mainly in the urban

ervironmenl. Disturbance and insurrection can easily be incitedamong the
masses of th« msufficienily employed poor. Rural opposition, on the other
hand, i^ widely dtspecsed over the couotrysbde and Is ihu^difhcult to organize.

The temptation, therefore, ts to invest in development projects that promise

employment and slabllitv in the urban areas. The consequence of insufficient

Auteursrechteiyk bescheMnd materiaal

 ThtTbtttlmmediade! • 107

agricultural inv«[menE ha& bf en a main olBla<:ic in llw race between Eood

pfoducUon jnd populauon. growd^. Rurii] developmeni remjmf jct

unquotlonibie plorllv because the whole populatkm. rural and urban, has
to be Fed, md countiie^ mu^t aim to become self sufRctent in die production
of food.
must be strongly fmpteflieddiarihc problem of rheorganiuTion of the
It

international market for raw m^ierrab has yet [o be solved. IC Is of prime

Importance to find a -way to ensuie diat (he pilce of raw macetlals Ls not fixed
by Inietnadonal markets to the benefit of industrialized counoics but to the
detilmcnc of developing ones,

U»i rjiiUaUrrt. Bodimihe North and In die South, Insplteofgruthandlaps

ofnuny wrtt. It Is reniirkable thai the willpower of small groups of men and
women has managed lo start the move towards bringing about Improvements
for the lower Income strata bised on thdt own efforts, with apptoprine
dssistincc from ccnttil and local govcmmcnb. InccmaQoiaJ igcncin,
domestic and foielgn non- governmental organizations, and new bilateral

progi*mmes.
the Club of Rome undertook a latgcsurvcy on die tole of local initiatives in
the rural areas'. We focus or this field knowing that parallel initiatives in

handicrafts and small rnimubctprcs In the wtIwp outskirts arc also wcry
effective and should be encouraged. Large numbers of small development
pro|eccs in j^hcultur? health and education have sprung
. up in the poorest
parti of Latin America. Africa and km. initialed by MGOs, Indcpcndenl
^mers' groups, and ^illjge communities. Acnordmg to
cffgaidBtions,
esnmaces m^de In lQfi5, over one hundred million farmers were involved In
development projecl^ headed by one or several HGOs. The movemenl Is
growing rap]dly.

Todjy. NCOS In die South exi&t by ihe thousands in It^dia, thr Philippines
and South America, ^nd by tbc hundreds In Arrlca. Indonesia aixl Thalbnd.
And although their histories are different, they are all participating In a
common effoii. with onlya few lesouices and some backing ^xqn NCOS In
the Northn to meet needs that are the same everywhere: the basic needs of
food, cledn wdier and h^iene. They uc also helping village dwellers lo
real Ize what their problems are and to participate in a siluation where diey can
take responsibility for thetr own development. This means getting die
villagers organised and oalned. and getting everyone involved. Including
worTien, ouicastes and the disabled It means^ making progress by digging

I TfifBlrrrWi FLuiiliiUsa 11Q8S], jrq]onby5chn«d«

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

103 • The Pint GiobaJ Rrpolutim

wdh or building fanki ro colted ninwarer for jrngstiDn, jmprovtng the

qudlLry of seeds and Livestock, pUnong etfcs. building Idtripcs. educating
chlldrcDjnd cncourdgLngsdVLiigs.Locdl savings, mosdy made b^ women, arc
i fundam^nul invesimcni lot \hc future thj[ fbouLd particularly be
developed Throughout i\\
r this, we car never overestimjte the essencial,

Irreplaceable role that women are plapng in developmem all over the world.
NGOs and volunteer agencies have made i decisive and vlial conulbution,
especially In dx poorer leglons oF dK woild. There is no doubt dut dieK

acQons will sptead. Ux v/oul about die vitlagcs that have come hack to [jfe gee
around verjr qukkly, reaching even ihe eikhi di&unt villages tn the desert,

jungle or mounorti. And villagci^ who wae thDughito be Incti, btallsOc and
resigned — when In factthey usually had no hope lefrand were too hungry to
work — are beginning to believe dut It can work foi the m too and are fin Jlng
the will to innpiove their own lot and build a better futiire for dicLr children,

Ptlcniiy must dicrcfote be given in many places to small-scale pro)casH

propctly Intcgnicd Inco a glo^bal mncgy

In addltfoHn to avoid financial vrasK and the unwarned consequences of die
large scale pfo)ects we nKndoned earlier . and 10 nuke the best of the tcssons
Icaml from previous expeneiKC, it seems necessary lo reverse die process
due has been engaged In solar and bOrt favouring small scale piojfcu needing
far less inveitmenl ainl resuLuiig m progress that is bcnefKial lo dte ma^iiy of
people.
Al a Ome when finarKfal resources are becoming even scarcer the current .

situation dem jnds th^i NGO& in the North, and ihf InifnutkHial Jgendes jnd
^a rK:[al institution in particular, re vie'w the policies diey have applied so f^tT'

Part of the investment planned Lor large-scale projects should be transferred

The advantage of the latter i&thjt they train die
tofinaiLcc&mall scale pio)ects.
bed men and women and set up The stnjctures— village communities,
farmers' aasixiations— lokunth i de^flopmeni based -on the people's own
r>eeds and options, implemented widi their active Involvement and under
their supervision. The rephabiJlty of the projects from village to village tt

starling to have a multiplying effect on the progress of develc^mcnt of groups

oE villager, then of regions.

beyond i ceruin ^tage oE ihi& kmd of development, medium scale works

like roads, nnarkets, small hospitals, and schools become indispensable. Thus
villages and NGOs have no choice- even though It may seem difficult - but
to putsue action on these matters in a concerted movement on government
polldes^ Id the same way, home Indus^leSp small business firms or handicraft
wterprlses can be set up and give access to new productions and therefore
nei* modest incomes.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 Tbt Thm Immediacta • 109

Tlrr i9}t ii ^ovtjr^mnii. This global viiioo ( rura-l dpvclopmeni based on new
perspecnves md pnorttics requires EitU lecogniuon by goveinnnetiQ ot the

rdc of local InltiaOvcs and NCOi, ]n hct. Jf a govemmen[ dcdd«$ to

JmpLcmem jEuraldeveJopmrni pel Lcy.thi&dss Limes Ehdi bjsm^dee^fniial It

poll tkj] choices chat must m mm)' insuncfl Include Land reform populaaon ,

polLcy and drvelopmoit of small i^kk healrh Eafilitie;. However, the

lecognlbon of ibe dTccdvenenof NCC^ by govcmznenD has often remilned
tnhcr theoiedcal.
Again and again ti has been observed bow ihc results of small s<ale projects
are compTDfTtiscd by the application ofpr^ctlcei and even polkcmihjTjcciri

conmdIcDon lo the type oE df velopmeni chcy stood foi, Puichuc pnces For

farm producls do not iuEricientlyremuneriletberirmers For their labour dnd

di&couiage Instead of -encour^e them to Increue produCDonr Simllaily. direct

and Indirect taxes on the national level are bitterly Felt in rural areas, where
income is generally very low. Covemment laxaiion widi Its resulDng financial
butdcn ODuld well slow down at put a stop to all small -^ale ptoica cffoits.
bowevet much external financial aid there Is. when govetnmenis have
decided to support this approach to rural development, the^ must then
modify ihdr political atxi ftnatxial options and axlopi a policy oFhtgher buying
[HicesfoJ village piodiicc. as *cll as relievethem of scnne of the tax pressure.
R. lira I development b«cd OP smill'S«lc projects also demands chgi
governments implemenl nauonal planning policies Favouring rodd
construction and the development of intermediate settlements between
villager and bl^ rowns. The absence oE roads excludes a large number ol
vlllige communiues from normal trading and makes them live In a 'closed
circuit'. Souk oF them have built roads cr bridges themselves, but they are not

equipped for such tasks, which should be planned on a national level and
carried out on the systematic btsis of a policy. Similar problems arise in the

TXti di prtfUJiy and secondjry school educjDon, haspitjlK. highrrlcvel

and leisute activities for the ^oung,
training,
Moieover, corruption musibe lought at every level oF the admmistratKin,
and ibis implies, imong other measures, the training of lower level civil
servants in order to moDvate and Involve ihem inadevclopment policy that
should be well understood ds a njciona] ptioficy.

Weshallaigue later that a ma^ornced In die development oF the South is

the creation of an Indigenous capacity in each country for research and

development. However, scienitFic careers have remarkably litde prestige in

many Southern countries. In such societies the more gifted Individuals ace

recruited Into fields other than these urHJervalued sciennFlc careers. A

number oFthcmaredoing research abroad, usually in Westem countries.. A

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

110 • Tbr Frnt Giobai Rrpoiutim

maior considcratkm in any nadonal sdciKC policy has ra be the esrabbshmcnr

otthebjiiccondiuorLs jndf^ciUdc&[oatt[acrihlS[CScrvo<T'oFQ]fii[backmdv
region dnd reoln thosf already thcTf b^ more con^o-anon and bftter

A last wocd should be said on the fllghi of capital wh]<:h in ^irK developliig
rounirlcs represfnts such an amount of mone y that it lk almost «quivalerti to
thdr total external dcbc. Such a pandoHicaL situation should cmalnli; be
changed by gowmmmril decisions and legulatlons
The growing awareness of all dme iacts amongst the population will

cenalnly play an essential role in pushjng govemmenis io give more attention

to them- as has already been the asc In some Afilcan- Asian and LaOn
Arr>er]tan countries.

jfit nk of iMtfnaUi%A\ insfilnl^iniT. ]n the past years, inietnadonal financial

institutions such as the World Bank, the European Economic Community and
Japanese oFFicial Qcvclopmcni Aid have become aware of the problenns of
rural development. The reglcnal development banks in Latin Amcrjca. Atnca
and Asja. as well as these in the Middle Easi, should increasingly emphasize
this lype of operation. Theie Is a ne* trend, as- yet quite modest, of (he direct
provision of flnanclil meins co smill scale pEo^ecis witboul going through the
government. This increases the probablllly that the money will reach its

destination without being diverted on the way. as was oFicn the case in die
past. But there \i a cerrain structural Incompatiblhly belween large

buECduCEatk jdmmi&traQons and ^mill NCOs. The mnovjiivc cnthmiatm oE

the latter ai well as the daily urgency of dieir field work, leaves little time lo
deal with the bureaucratic requirements and administrative details expected
of them-
To promote and accelerate this type oF rural development, wc think these
Institutions should devote a greiter pd:t of theii budgei to loedl iniilitlve& dnd
small scale protects. This would strengthen thdi e^idency and encourage the
growih ! ^mall scale induioies They should also establish an advisory
committee made up oF representatives oE ^uthern NCOs and organizations
such as ihc Club of Rome, to extend their knowledge of the field, to ^ulde
them in tiieir selection of cas« deserving of financial support, as well as to

contnbute (o the evaluation of the results of such aid.

1'bc most immediate responsibility of the iniematioiul irutitunons.

however, has to do with the debt problem in deveiopmig eotintrics, k is fitting

to emphasize ihe positive moves that have taken place in the last few yeaiSn
which began with the agreement signed between the InternauoTkal Monetary
Fund [IMF] and Mexico in lOSO.establlshinga link, for the first time, between

Auteursrechteliik bescheMnd materiaal

 .

TheThralmmaiiMki • Ell

ihtf level of giowih of ^ countiy ind ihc level of in dcbr pa)micna, The
cvolurkm of thoughi w|[h rcgaid to the sdutkm of ihc debi problem [oday
cin be otiKrvcd fi much in the deb[OE countrtei u In rhc Icmlei InnlTuaoris.

In the debtor counirin. the debt cci^i; has begun to Induce a revision of
developmentitr^Kegies jndiheim plemenuoon of policies aimed Ji reducing
budgeory jmbalsnce;, ElghEing In^sncin. engafpng iii economtcand fmsTVcUl
recovery programmes, jnd esiabhahlng codCroJ over economLc poltdcs.
Lender Insilnjtktns, Ehe [MF In panlcuhi, now view (he dcnimd for re-

Adjustment wlih a keener awareness of the sodji consequences of

unnecessarily harsh terms. Ii has become clearer that the debt pioblem can
only be salved in die Jong term jnd only If — JS is acknowledged In :hc pUn
proposed b^ die US Sccteiary of Treasury, lames Baker — growth resurr>es,

boch in die counirin of the tJotih and in the cho^ of the South.

Very recently [here appears lo have been a reorientabon Ln the thinking of

the leaders of die international financial ocganizauons. ForeumpJe, Enrique
V. Iglnids', the president of the Inlet Atnetfun Development Birk, while
di^cu^^ing the transfer of teal resources to developing countries, scata:

Among ihr areas of activity targeted few sund oui foi die
by die bnk, d

high priority they have been isslgned, namely: the ptomoOon of economic
investment In key sectoEs of the economy such is energy, transport,
communications, agricultural and industrial devebpment: the alleviation
of the social debt In the region leg., assistance to the low-income
segments of the population, coopcratkin for urban jnd agricultural
development, promotion of small producers, enhancing women's
pardclpailon in development}; the support for the modernization of the
private sector le and cquliy invntments bj* the imwAmerian
g . loans
Investment Corporation, and loans and technical cooperation from the
Bank In the areas of trading systems modernization, expcn capacity
development, financial sector modernization, cofinancing. and support to
mECroenneprencurs); the promotion of human resources development,
pjiticularly in the scientific and technological areas; and, finally, the
prorrtotion of environmental management and conservation of natural
resources

One Imporiani task for die Club of ELome Is to convlrKC policy-makers diat
It IS possible for Korch and South to work together so that development no
longer demands such a high price of die regjonal and gkjbal envirorunent.

L Addrns on September ^lJ«0. to thfjoiniCnininltteedtlv Boards of CkiverruTi of the

Bank jnd ihie Fund on chic Darukiufccaimourcn id developing courtEtn.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

112 « TheFmtGlobttlBrvUutum

Developmeni planning can rely on ^Irfady available ^vanccd cncr^-

cffioemand matenal^ efficentiechnoEogics.Ucan^couiigccffotO to build
up indigenous capabilities for scientific and technological research In the
developing counoln. tt must emphasize ihe use of local resources and
renewable energies lo Ind to ^ deicentralized ^nd Italjnceii pattern of
development. Ai flrsr %\^i. the finandal burden involved may seem coo
onerous for dcuelopJng countries. El rieed not be. If aid-to-development
pollcks can be designed to ensure that adequate me i^ nude of the
technological advances achieved so fa:. Seen In a historical perspective,
deveboping countiics now have a gteac advantage: they ue building up their
caplul KDck iX a dmc when new icdinolo^cal opiikjns ^rc becoming
available, Wc have Co ensure ihat these options; do nor remain t^K ptivilcgcd
possessions of the North, but can be accessed by die Soudi on afforda-ble

lerrrs^ Th^ would be possible if, for example, a part of aid to development
funcTs were Co be used to give conipensanon [o the enterprises in the pr]tf^[e

^ciQr for }h^ng know-how.

ihcit icchnologi^dl

MoreovcTH we have to ask whethei cunent conditions allow us to envisage

successful International cooperation on the necessary sale. Two potential

obsucles might bar the way. The first is political obsucles. TlelaKation of
teniiuns between East and West has pointed to die emcigencc of a new
tnternational climate and this process may conOnue, despite worrying signs of
reactionary tendencies within the Soviet adrrrinistration. This might ?k)w
down the demociauzation pjoccs^ or even Lake advantage of the prc^nL
economic reemcige as a pohdcal ftMce. The new climate raises
fiasco to
expectations, about Ean^Wsl relations, but not necessarily about North-South
relations. Indeed, confrontation between E^ And WesE in the past ofi^n led

to competiUpon in offering assistance to developing countries for political or

trade-related advantages. However, an attitude verging on Impatience has
novi' become apparent among many cconomisu and policymakers in tfic
industrialized world of dK North, They seem to feel dut while restructuring
the foimet Eastern blocis a practical pTOpo&ition. development of the South
remains an intractable problem. Furthermore, theCulf War has given rise to
increasing tension between tJordiand South. Tbe growth of fundamental ism
jn iic Isldmic woild threatens not only dK t^t^ve analysis of ccorrpmlc
intetestn but aUo what has been a long iraditlcn in mucboftbe Atab woiW of
tolerance for non-Muslim beliefs.

The Club of Rome can make Its own contribution here. Measures Eo find a

polifeablemechanism which will permit deveLopmem lo take pbce without

unduly expanding tolal world resource use, and other measures to condLUon
market force? to take mto account long^term, hitherto unquantihable

Auteursrechteliik beschermd materiaal

Missing page
 8. Governance and the Capacity to Govern

The compICK ol piablcms rhar wc hjvc discnbcd Icad^ to che quc^iion i% lo

how dK7 die lo be m jsicred through policies thii okc EuJI kcoqdi dF Ehf ir
muctui impact. Arc the Q^dicioiijl palldal, insdtudonaJ ind ^JmlnlstnUvc
systons capable of hcing such i situauon^ Knowing how to make ihe right
decisions In f^llknowiedgeottbe facts and dien ImplemenQngthemintimels
no ca&y mntcr; yci fuAdimcnut cicmirnc
ii \i i d
(he problem aOquc, The
defl-clencle^ of governance are at the root of many of the mands of the

problemaljque 3J]d hence improved goveimnce is an ea&enltal aspect of the

fcsoluljquc-
In this chapter, we examine the origins of some of ihe piobLeim of
shall

jjovf mance. tb new dlfnen^ic^u, and the ^qtidi:y of its pie^rrnt responses.

We shall also make some iuggestiom tor changes which mlgh[ conujbute ta
die tesoLutiquer
WeuMlbeierm 'goveirunce to deixne die command medunismtjfj
sodal system [and Us actions|,dut endeavours to provide ^(^cuElcy^piospetltf,
coherence, order and continuity to the system. It necessarily embraces die

Ideology of the system, which may (democrattc) or may not (authoritarian)

deftne means for the e^ecdve consideration of pubbc wiU ind tht
accounabdlty of tha^ m auihoiiiy. ii also mc!ud« the iiructurr of The
government of the system. Us policies and procedures Somr mi^t even
Df that govemarw Is the rrKans ro proi/ide a stable equi^ibnum between die
vamus centres of power. Seen In a broad sense, (he concept oE govcmance
should not be restricted Co the zutiona] and International systems but should
be applied to regional, provincial ^nd local gouemmcnis as well as to odier

social systems such as those of cducatloD and the mlLltaryn to private

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

 Gffvmratut tpid the O^aaty to GffPtm ^ 115

cntcrf^lscSn and even to the microcosm of the limily. Covcrnarjcc jttempe to

apply arkart a ambiance of rJdonaliiyio The irranonal, sub|«t[vc, and often
COn^idj^^iy tchivi^Lir gf palidcuTis, ccononkists and the ml of \is.
I< is uDwiK to ovogoienllze on tbe concept of governance. diETereni

countria hdve dlfkreni ippioachcs iS ^/ftii as differcriL problcms^

Reverlhelcs^. predominanlly Western idc^l hive itirtiulawrf WOrVimic
growth and matcrla[ ptogtcssinabigepartof the wotUJarul have broLjt^ht
witJi ihcm Western mucture^ and concepts, no* generally xcepfcd.

although with !tai\y variations and diverse interpceuiions. The Idea of

gDvecnance lb natacw. Id core coi^ponenis ^u b^tk a[ leait five thousand

ycjK, 01 probably much longw i^n dial

We have jbeady undetscoied the mjsmanagefnmi of the world. evldeiKe
of which IS all around us — acevis of misery and poverty, die arms trade,
cripphng indebtedness m die developing wocld. huge annual dcficLif in dK
United SQtes with i national debt of some USS ) trlJUon. samp^nt speculatuHl,
cortupdoii, and violence. Aie nve to (onciudc liin the world n impouibk Co
govern? Are out governors incompetent or 111 choscii? These ate doubii
which public opimon is ramog and cicizen:^ Jre discussing- much more
IncMvcly than the poSmciins themselves. Wehjvetojsk ourselves three basic
quesikms:

(1) DowenKdiecndofthisccniuiyipropeiJy understand our woi Id, oi aic

out coocepcs 3t»i approaches iu> longer suited bt the complex and
dangerous sLiuaticn we fkce?

(2) Whyjn splceoFgrowing concern over several decades and Jnnumciable

internaijonal debates and many canitrutOvc proposals have accton and
pracDaf results Iwtn w Itmjred?
(J) What suggestions can now be made for step* to improve the cftecDvenea
of the pcocea&cs which shixild convert wtdrspiead concern mio practical
acOon?

The dangers of ir»efTeetive governance are present acdiScrenc levels; at ihe

level of the indlvidiaal and the family iwhich wc have discussed In 'The
tiumjn Malaise'}, ii the levels oi the national jnd die JntcTEiaiiona poTlrkal I

^fiF dimennons of the prvbUm offfOPcrtwrnt

Shicc the eudof chc Second World War, the actJvmes of governments have
Increased enormously and, a[ the same ume, many areas under their

lUTL^iction ^mind highly s|^dli£c-j icchnj^^l undei^andlng. Wc must

thetrefore stress how much the complexity of national and international

Auleursrechteljjk beschermd materiaal

116 • lUFmtGkbdBtvolutum

svstfms has gfowD. As Andic I3a]zini puts it/thls sudden jiK in complfiUty
hasihrown us out of a social syscfm ihit w&(accc5i]bJc (ologlcandihrunus
Into- 1 stxJil otganiutiort doniin^tcd by cybernetic racQoni/ Jn a very
cocnptexenvlronniciitwlthlnsQbilitiesindlznbaljiKcs. ^is [be situation ot
humankind today, the feedback jy$tem& are so numetom and so intetiwincd
thjtftJsdjRiciilt to dfiign them within a comprehensive modcLltlscvcnlcs!
possible to grasp such systems chiough common sense and intuition, or even
to draw up an approximate mentaJ Image of them. The solution of probFcms
wlihUi this complex, system Is thercfoie difficuir, m^dc all the moic so
because En many c3:jes public acceptance of KiEuttons \i unhkdy.
What givcj rJK: la dils growth of complexity? Wr mention heic a ffw of
the factors operating on both the nadonal and the Intemadonal leveb:

\ ) the increased speed of technical, economic and demograpNc changes:

2) the Incieasc in the number of accots in the systems to be governed,

whHhfrahigdry.acountTy.thevastve^ofrheSouth.oThuminiryua
wholes

3J [be jncce^&c In the number of foveielgn stJts pldytng an aCDve fole Id

any given IntettuQonal sj^siem;

A] tht ejLtenE of Inrcrdependence between nattonal soclena ova a wide

[ang? oi mittcr£ ^ixh u uansfci of knowledge, pedodlc or petmanent
mlgralory llows. cultural influences and economic eitthange;

5] the onning into Ctmlact of heleiogenous soceties, differing in iheir

ailiures. values, political tiadlllom, and sundards of living:

6) thecroslonofnatkonalsovcrelgnty. AccoIdlngUlMt.So«ijatmko^ 'In

the process of interdependence, we have all become vulnerable. Our
societies aie permeable to decLsioni taken elsewhere In the world. The
dynamiC3 of inicrdepencSence might be better understood If we ihin^ of
thegbbenoiln tetmsofamapofnadon^butasa meteoro-logtcal map,
where weather systems swirl tndependendy of any nadona boundaries I

and low and high fronQ create new climattc conditions fai ahead of
them':

L FomicE gcncEjl irunj^ijci of Thooim C5F, moubcr d

dit Club of Rome.
J. Afoimcrprcsidcntof [he LlniicJNjQoTiiGtiivcraiTyaTHlilorfnrrrfkr'mbf-rLiEihcChjbof
RjJlnc. Ml. &dc(1|Ajiuj[o, rtriwdr^rii^d, mtoti? [hii ^urcmcnr in i pJpi^i fariicibuwd m

[be Club ol Rocne irmua] ciinleif nee of \%^ held in ^norriLerj S[dm oc ihc u^ic af
CovemabilKrofa World Id TraiuiUQLi

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal

 G&Kmana and iht CafHtaty to Gffpent * 1 17

(7) ibccnormousvolumtof iofbrmad™, the Tpccd of communiatto^

ihc importance of the mrdia as amplifier, sdcnor, filler, and distorter of
- v/hai ^a^i Ai [pi^raOiQo - deapiK dK iia ihai jo ihc South iczcsi to
Information Is still vay bmlrcd;

(8) dw emcTgOKC of i atw world ctchnlcal system based on

microelecaonics;

i9) the aR>carancc of problems dcmandlrg msna^emcnl on a global sole of

mankind^^ comcnon heiit^e m Jieas such as climate, envlronmenl. the
exploiuiiun oE Lhc oceans and ardilieauiat monuii^eniA;

[10) ihe sJTnuIuneous consequences of technical dcvelopmcn: and die

fngmeriaTlon of poljdcal power on die security of nattonal societies;

(11) rhf diionma d twiMtn bur»u£rad(±&. The lUtur^ and diver&icy of the
problems be solved and the sj'stenu (hcilth, welhie. etc.) k> be
lo

managed, encowape the powth of hrge bureaucradei, which arc

amslderably more tcilnani to change;

[17) In some national sodeila, changing individual amiudes have led to

Increasing demands for services ftom the government. Citizens find It hard
to believe dut governmeniis aie unabEe to find solutions which will not
cause them hardship or lEiconvciUcncc, SimultaiKOusly there k i decline ,

In tespeci for audiority and a lessening trust in and support fot insticudoiu.

AJ±ough in from nthiusiive, this lui suggests thai the cUcca of mosi of
thc$e factors wlJl be felt wtth Increasing intensity during the neit twenty lo
thirty ycars^ These new dinnenslons of governance place an entirely r^ew

htstorical situation In. from of humanity. We must, therrfore, noc be surprised

by the Jnadequacy of nuny of the solutions currently proposed for die
conicmporary problems.

ThtiHodequjiijefthcrtiptHttTaammljnvtitrms

Ti Is necessary to £tr OS once nwreth^tth? existence of tragfcs1tiTatfons,sEtdiaj

military conflici, threats to peace, vioiation of human tights, envjronmenol
ddmdgc, md (he Intolerable pcrslsioKx of wldoprcad poverty and hunger In
the world, demonstrate the malfunctioning of the woild system
DeTTrographic, economic, politick and en virtm mental tiends of global
dimensions, have combined in teccnl years to create a qualiutivcly distinct
category of pucucal piobiems diat were vlrlually unknown Co Oadltlonal
dipbmacy. They are beyond the reach of indlvldiul national governments,
cannot be ftrted into accepted theories of competitive interstate behaviour and

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Missing page
 .

Govtntanct and nbr Q^adty to Gopem m 119

overlap oF the confuting ma&j of ^pfdallTtd tiniis. As wj^ 1rw4tabl?,

many oi^thc agcncln gridualJy began lo f ultivjic chcjr vested ni[ete3t5.

was rectuJud Jeis on quality, than o>n anurlng dirou^ quotas an

Staff

cquiabk dlscrlbuclon of poses lo each member councry. die same M

dme the effectlvcncs! of some of die main agenaci wjs diminished by
bure^uft^rtz^r^i^i^ and pollfldzadon^
Anxk on the complexity of the coirtempoi^ry problems emails i double
risk -thai of excluding publitopinjon and dcacdtepicsctiQUvca from the
knowledge necessary for the utKJcT&tandtng of a sliuatkm. as well asth^tot
strengtbenlEig the Influence of specL^lists jnd experts whose arcdnc
knowledge is difRcuk for the decision makers to jpprajse and check.
Tht complCRlty of die problems has been compoondcti by dienumbet
and complejiKy of the actors: political parties, uaiie unions, coipoiatk^ns,

non governmental otganlTadons, picuiue gcoupa of all kinds including

Infcffmal groups which OMy be short lived but nevertheless Intense and

efftctive in their nwbtlttaOonon a parflcuJar ftjue. That virtous groups

contribute to governance through the^ proposals aixJ protc^. Governance is
no longer the monopoly of governments and fncci govcmmentaJ bodies, and
Its effectiveness depend on the capacity of leaders to selecttvelytnclirde in
will

their dedslonmaktng process- these new actors, who are In htx their partrters

in g^jvrmancf

The stmctuTTj. pdum imdpnti^dum tf^erermnaus

Itiacisitig ob&olescence H chus i r)iaJor ch^i^ct^Hsdc of govcni^n-^^ today.
Its snudures are basic, designed moEe than 3 centuiy ago to meet the needs of
much Ampler societies th^n the present ones. Some Important Innovations
have certainly taken place in the meanUme. such as the emergence of
universal su^ge, the evolution of the welbre ^te, and a recognlUon of
human tlgha. but by and larg« dungr hjs brm InaemenDl oi by wjy oi m
improvement of the already existing stiuctuzeSr As the range of governmental
Interventton has increased, ir has been accompanied by high costs, swollen
bureaucracies and mefflcency. Here we shall n^enGon only a few of the areas
where major Innovations in structure and attitudes are most urgently
raiuirrd.
One such area is ihe need for benf r mecthanisms for the integration of

sectoral policies in order to deal with the Interaction of [he problematlque- [n

general, government structures ccmslst csseniially of a scries of vertical

ministries for sectors such as agriculture, indusity, eduo-tlon. health, defence
and foreign affairs, together with the central finazKJal and economic
mechanisms. Th^ system h^s hidicrta worked moderately well, but today

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Missing page
 Gtmnuota mtd the Orpndty 10 Gmvm * 121

However, cjtpcrtcticc showed (hat the barriers between bccqohs of a

department could be is ImE^nctrable as ihosc between the fonocr separate

mint soles.
A second atea of dlfbculty concerns between Eang-lerm and
theircRifllct

short 'term Issues ^ This Is a maior endemic problem The rurmal

pultamentary cycle oi four or Rve years between dc^bOrti \i i featuie ot
democratic govenunce. The power game of party pollOcs ensures that both
administrations and opposition partes have to respond quickly to Issues which
arc of Immediate concern to the electorate, iX they wish to retain OE to win
power at ihe ne:st election. Thus govemmenti, like Individuals, tend to
ignore problems thjion be put o^ till tomoirow - it^ this C3sc until 3ftcr the

ncm election. This has probably mattered lliclclnthc past, bui In periods of
rapid change such as the present, wh^t formerly appeared as long-term tends
to race into the period just five to ten years ahcid i,e Into the period of the

next administration As a consequence, die new government inherits a legacy

,

of ncglea; unackled problems come home Eo nDOSt, become compounded

and there Is a descent Into crisis governinenip a staggering from one
emergency to the next - which range from dealing wlih monetary and social

problems, baFance o( payments crises, unemployment. Inflation, and so on.

Each crisis is usually lesolvcd by pasting pafier over die ciacks; remedial

mcasuin seldom :CKh the iMB of the difficulty Fundamental causes of

difficulties, being longterm m iheir operaDOin, are too easily ignored Oi go
unidennfied In favour of cosmetic measures of ephemeral cffccDvenesS-
A further cribcal arrt apprOpHaw levels of decision making.
Is that of thc
The cuttent situation Is somewhat a parados. The complexity and highly
technical mture of problems encourages the cenirallzauon of ddmlnLstiaiion

for their analysis and soiudon, since this would be difficult for regjonai

and provincial bodies to organize. Also the global coverage of so many

problems which demand ancnnon on the world scale, xvoald seem to lequire
centralized national decisions. At the same time there is an Increasing clamour
for decentralization, regloraal autor^omy and greater participation of die
lr>dividual citizen in decisions which affect him closely. This tendency Is being
bTTOngly reinforced at present by the demands for Independence oi autonomy
of innumerable eduiic gioup^, a^ illusttdtcd by the ^ituAiion in Yugoslavia and
the Incredible secession Lsi tendencies in the Sbviet Union.
These t«va approaches are Indeed two sides of the same coin, perhaps
growing pains In the transition of the nauon slate towards some new kind of
global system. In the medium term, the main Issue is how ro eSh^bllsh^ In a
manner aiming at harmonious governance, a system in which there will be
several layers of decision -making. In which the basic principle will be to

Auleursrechteljjk beschermd materiaal

122 • TheFim Glsbai Rtvoluri&n

msurc that debate taka place and dedskms are niad« at the closet possible
Levels to chose who will cnpjoi suffer the resdo. Foi ibc global problems we
needagbbalbttimaiixlHatltwodiCTCXticnKplocalrtiatrcrsciallforatowTior
communliy meeting tathcf than edIcB cmanacing from a remote and
seemingly uncarjng central government.
Finally, a few words jbout the buieauttity. In many countries thrte Is

general publk alClOsm of the sIk and power of the bureaucracy whith seems
DO enjoy Invendng peoy restiktion^ to Freedom and unnecesullycomplLaOng
the life made
of dtjzeiu, [[Isfekioberemcxe, unic^pon^lwe jnd unfeeling,
up of people wUh tenured )obs who revel In cxen:ising ihdr petty powers. No
nutter hmv intelligent and obicctivc the CiviT Sfr\tc:c may be— jndln nuny
couniTLes thisisur^oniiroverslai— ttlsa Eatt chat iB memben are selected to
provide itabkUty and conrinuiry a& political administrations come atid go.

Hence they are seen tosai>d for the status quo, to be ihe apoiheo&ls of Inerda
artd resistance to change, especially radical change, Ln some lnsianre$ it Ls felt

that the facelcSS Clv|l Service 15 out of the OTnttol of ats pollOcal masters and
thus not accountable to the people. It Is certainly very difbcult f-oi a minister to

master all the deiajis of his departmental activities, of which he has probably
lud no prior eyperlenu. u^hlle hlK offlf I j]&. very efficient arul well Infonned,
'know all the answers'.
There is undoubtedly some truth In 5uch crltldSTn, but sometimes there
may be a ^eaE deal of benefit for an inexperienced minister In the mtormed
cautious advice of the official The considetable extension of govemmenr
rfsponsihi]itylnrecmtyear3,insormnyup«tsoflifch^Lnevjtablyledtoin
increase m the size of the bureaucracy, and in some instances such as defence,
to the perpetuation of pow« and unsuitable policies. Internal policies may
thus at times be responsible for cieating dangerous and partly concealed
vested Intetests.

SOME IMFOHTANT ISSUES

Hjvingoudincd some general thou^ts on governance, we feel it necessary to

discuss some aspects in mcire detail.

RtsKtancc So cfrar^

Governments seldom generate Innovation. Tbcy reaCT to piessuie for change

which arises from popubr demands, either through the democratic process of
f lenions or jn the iiEterinath of a surces&ful revoludon. flowever, in mcttng
to demands for new approacheSn die natural conservatism of admlnlstratkons
{
and not nvrely Its civil service component) Is often able to pat the brakes t>n
change. Their approaches are essentially linear and aie based on cither rigid

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

Missing page
124 • The Frrsr GtobnU B^poUmm

Friction' In nn»njgfin?n[ labour r^ldiions was jimtifjed in i)w context of dir

conOnuoustmpiovemenlof ihctonditkmof die wDikeis, while in politics rt
has done 3 good deal 10 prevent exceukve complacency and stagnaDon.
However, It sometime, for example when party
haB also gone too far
IntercHshavcbcenplaccdabavcthenadonilgoodr While Ln no way aigulng
sgalnsi party polidrs as such. ihcK 3xe strong reasons for aTOmpDng, In both
pollUca] and Induiula] relaocns, to Inculcate a change of ^tOtude In (he
djTecdon of consensus building In Face ofihe gravity Dfthedecisk}ns thai will
have to be Caken in the near Future, artkhclally stimuiaied paity rivalries,

modvated bf atrempts to win |)opular votes atihe nextelection a nd oFten IKK

cvm based on tcdl jdcologlal dlffeicnccs, could le«j 10 di&i^i. That 15 an
overwhelming need to establish a consensus between political panies
claiming to be custodians oF [he national good, if we are (o weather the m^n;/
storms ahead. To ihks end It would be useful to bring togcdier rcprcsenCaUvcs
of difFerent parties In anon political brum such as might be ptovtded by die
Club oF FLomr and slitiildt budles, for ihe dL^u^sion oF spcdflc IssuG.

GevrKttvnr ntui thefbna of the nvrkfl

[n East Europe, abandonment of state-planned economies in tvour cf

democtacy and Free' market economies has Inevlobly Indicated the need For

economic eERoency based on compcdOon and inccnifveH i-i- to accept and

operate ibc Forces of [he market This ha; led to widespread euphoria tn these
countries which Fiave assumed thai: th I & i& the p^nacci for thdr economy ills-

While we fully agrw thatthrse raunmcs nnd toaperiie ihelr economies on

the basis of the market forces, we have ibeady warned oF the danger oF
rel/Ing exclusively on dicse forces. [[ Is dius necessary 10 discuss brleFly die

reiadoosFitp between governments and the markets.

The market Is 111 adapted tQ deal widi long term e^cts, imergenerarlonai
responsibilities and common propcny resources. It responds essentially to
short term signals and dius Its be gravely misleading if app]]ed
indications can

to long teim needs The system of the market economy js based on

competition and is motivated by self-interest and ultimately by greed. In the
absence of all cestralnts, the operation of tbe market Forces could lead to

citplolt^tion , ncglen cnvltonmcnui de^uucdoni and the

oF soddl needs,
unchecked consumption of resources essentJal For the Future. However,
society demands and indusay and commerce accept that there has to be an

agreed system of ethics, within which the market 1^ operated; the system is

thus self' regulating Co some extent.

The maikei system dius certainly hds flaws, NcvcrthcLesiH competition and
iPceiillveareundoubtedlyefFectlvein the current allocation olicsourceSn in

Auteursrechteliik beschermd materiaal

 GiTPfmana and the Capadtyto Gopem • L2S

dcvcbptng new icchnologlo, and In the generation of die mjtCTial prospcjlty

which ihr knduslrlallzed countrls enpy today.
Even those govetnmcnu that arc mon devoted to Lti€ rancepi^ Qi piinte
iiuprlse. reco^tzf dv ne«J to dv boundarln wldiln which the
dtElne
marker an function. In the genenl pubbc inierai. govemmcnn have to
[novide a firm frafnework of regulations fo-r die private sccio: 2nd to

effectively establish mechanjEni? for the eocte-cuofi of abuses. At the ame

time gt^vejnmenial policies are necessary for the establishment of an

economic climate conducive to the effLdeni functioning of die market within

the country and for en»urlE^ diat its products ate competitive In [be

mterruilonal mar)c«. Govemmenc strategics should also provid* incenOves

for long'ierm developmcntn for example fiscal and o<hct incentives, and
should encouiage Indu^lry to- Invest In sdentifk lesearch and tedlnologtcal
devckipmeni aimed ac long t£im susuinabLltty, japan has been particubtly
succes^l in developing a system combining business initiative and
govcmmeni Inccndue. Clcftc collabotauon between the public and the
private sectors has been established as a basis for long term EechnologicaE
development, particularly thrixigh publicly financed research programmes,
wtth the wide paiticipatlon of private enierptise.
Iilspaititulaily Important at ihe moment, that those cnuniries which are
now mavtng vjgoroiuly from ccninlly planned lo iTurKci oticnird
economies, should c-rcognlze the limitabons as well as the benefit of d^
market economy,

HHHutmry in PoUtta
There Is 3 need to Jntioduce a new strain of humanity Inro politics. Rectnt
years have seen a marked loss of confidence In political patties and
personalities, contempt tor bureaucracy, voter abstention, and a general
jljouiioti fiom the mibli^hmrnt and soctfty. This rray br due pjnEy 10
overccntiallzacion, which depersonalizes the system, and pardy to
burcauciailc oppression. It li a sympTom of deep malaise. Leaders and
bureaucrats seem to tiaue forgotten that pditics I
as economics) Isconcerrted
with people and is meant to Ktve peijple. Until humanity and compassion
permeate polltia and politicians go beyond metely kissing babies during
election campaigns, allenabon will pecstst.

Tht Inttmatatmal iJxirKmnm

We have already touched upon ^cvcial dlfficulnes of tntemjtlL^nal

gov«mancc,jl which level nuny of cbendtioiul problems tend to dtcumjbte

and become compounded The trend lowaitis globaLity and the rfcogniUon
.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Missing page
 Ginvmance and the Capaa^ ttf Qnvtn • 127

ccrQin problf ni art js m npcnsltating a combined apprtncll from several oF

rf>c spccjalizcd bcdjcs. Programmes could ^n be wri up in which the
^?n^^ ^?uLd u^c pirt by coDQibyQng b^th finance ind ^Kpcr^s^, w|d)
some supporLfroTH [be centre where ippiofviHe Such i scheme would
, man
greater influence of dw UN cenliem the woik of die specialist bodies, bul this
mtght noE be- a bad thing if it could be done i^itb mlEkimum bureiucmk
Intcideience and if the piogiaTJimcs were gcnutneJy Jutonomoua,
New j^^iToaches nt: also needed In the working of some of ihc individual
sgcndes. [nlcrgovcmmcntalcweanizatLons.juH js governmental agencies on
the njdonal scale, are not the Ideal locacions for conducting research on the.
Thev» an sflmuljie rrwarch, foimubte problems, jnd piovide for useful
imcmationai discussions, but the lack of sufficient Eunds prevents ihcm from
undertaking rescuch in depth. Iheu work is esicntjiliy caCalyQc,

The vast number of ^vhkh an organization luch

topics i$ iJaacxf has Co

examine makes II impossible ID have a competent staFf, cirpeit In all the

details of the subjccis awcrcd. FuiiheTmore, Jicas of pjratubi concern
necessarily changen so chai many niittCf 5 that are In focus are ody lempoiatlly
on The agenda, wtth ibc new points of attack requiring quite a different set of
skills r Tbli problem Is dealt with by the use of consultant In most agencies,
but jl seems more efficient to adopt a policy of delegating responsibrllty for

pdrtiojEar studies to the mo^ competent iniUcu^n in the woe id for cKh
subject undertaken
ScJecdon of competent Individuals should be cssenOally on tfie basis of

quality and there should be no question ofapplying the principle of the 'Tuste

retour'. With such a s-ystem, the headquarters will have a staff consisting of

the best tialiKd individuals with moat wide ranging imprests, and contaos
could be kept quite small.
Finally wc must mention the question of leaderahlpn with especial
reference to the high qualitiei looked ftw in the person who js ihe Spadary-
CeneraL This subjeahas been usefully discussed inarecentreportoftheDag
Hammatsktold Foundation, The UN Chatter described d>e holder of the post
of Secrelary-Ceneral as essentially the chief administrative officer erf the
organization, but it soon became obvious that important political mediatitn
and kadtrshlp functions were Incvlubk, In the icformcd dEid accvc UniEcd
Nations ofthefmurc, the Image of the Secretary-General IsvUall]/ important.
For millloELs of people throughout the world fie personalizes whx wt>uJd
otherwise be seen as yet another vast bureauaatic machine. This individual is
required to possess almost superhuman qualities. He or she Ithete has not yet
been a feminine caixlidate} must bebcave and at the same time cautious^ as
well as highly lntel]lg.ent, diplamaric and fnnovatJven have an outstanding

Auteursrechteliik beschermd inateriaal

Missing page
 Gozvmarur and thf Capacity 10 Gffptm * 129

in i way whkh eiKoungp s thfm id idmdfy with it:

— chc capacity to relegate snaicgy tad tacQcs Eo thdr proper place as the
means ind not as eitds;

— willingness to ser up jyscemw thiough which d>cy can listen In (o the nc<ds
oi ih? citizens, their feats, demands, and suggesQoEis,
These cheri arc soTfKof the dcfidersD.WhaE About ih«pK&emi«alldej^ At
present, even In those counoles where coirapdon kn govcmmenc Ji not
rampani, the rewards of leadership, which In theory arc those of serving
focicty and che fsliifactton of doing a good )ob, uc In pracDce all loo often
cnfoyrnent of power. Hence, those who presencthemselves for election, rend
to be indlvldiuls with morr thjn ihr average vjnlty jihJ urge For power over
others. These arc hardly the crtterta for the selection of the widest people to
guide the world through the dl^culnes of the revolution. As things are now,
many people of high quality who have the potential to become nattonaS or
world leaders avoid entering the political aren^ wi^ all it^ vulgarity and
hackbiting and the paucity of its rewards to thoic lor whom power m not the
primaty consLdeiaQcai,
Much attention Is [herefore required in the selecuon of our leaders. At
present, this Isdoneby asuivivjlof^the^flllest process which tends to select

persons who are overtly self -seeking and at limes even witling to sacrifice the
common good for dic^t pcrKnHl or party ambinom, Th? quillilc! ^rhlch ate
essential for &x jnalnmcni of high office are thus fiequenily the very

attributes which make the Individual unfit for It. Chailsma is an extremely
important asset for a leader, but it is not the only requirement and is very
often associated with other less desirable qualities, let, thanks to televislonn
charisma Is probably che most Important ingredient in winning elecdotu. It is

difficult to sec how this can be chang:cd; it will certainly not happen from
within the lyatem, and there ks therefoie a need for wise individuals without
poUilQl jmbitlon to point out diese prot^emi to the public^
Political decisions are seldorrj based on rational thinking. They are normally
based. In each Individual case, on a complex mixture of intuition, experience,
personal and often unconscious moDvittons, and (jjiutiainls of political

dogma and expediency. This is unlikely to change, but the process can be
improved; better and more chotoughly atulyscd information can be made
avaiUblcmraivaflons can be more consciously recognized and thus modified,
and expediency can be replaced if the system permits longtcrm
considerations.
In the changing circurnstanccs wc have mentioned diioughoutn l< ts

csscnWlthacfotward looklnggovcmmentsatalllcvclsdcvciopsomc 'tent

of policy entrepreneurship, and not nvrely maintain stability and harmony

Auleursrec Intel ijk beschermd materiaal

130 • Tht First Ghhtd EiPoiHtum

jmld^htwh III oF confusing Ctfcno. It is necessaryihattheshipoEsaif should

nor only be kcpCdfloalrbulthdl II should be sle^rfd, surely indddibcTdlely,
tow^ a deslied (kaUniuon, Thiu io a deprr, Fuiurr govonmencs mmt
leatn u> become social aichltects. Far chi^ parpose. 3 much deepci and
continuing disc uuion of Issun Is requjjed whhin d>c frameixnxk of njtichn^l
and world irend? The ^uff EttnfUon b^omcs even moF<; importani and (he
whoFc in and icitnct ot policy advice comei ^U> qucraon. Policy advisers
should not all be olfKLals, but should mclude individuals fiom ziuny
dlKipiincs ind wJtKouT polnkil parly affilijiions The s(ib)cci of policy
jnalysc^isof-enEor disc us^jon and much ihoughimusf be given >£ 10 how this

d&pcct of the iuS Funcoon on be kiUlizcd.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd irrateriaal

 9. Agents of the Resolutiquc

AdjustrntDt (o dungt is iht hind^mrnQl cIuIIce^c that uivlctllc^ all tht

constituent ^li^maiis of &ie pioblcm^ciquc analysed in ihc first put of this

book, i challenge jddtcsicd to ai^ ibc people d out planet, whatever thdr
culture, training Tiadltfans, religion ot philosophical ouibok. The prirrury
agents of the rc&oiLiEiquc aierhmc^ eIiji ^iJIdlbw Jjidividuali jndsodcQoio
lum bow to jdapt lo ibt dunge^ thai are consQntly modifying tbe fi£e of the
planet.

Any ehangC. for the better or fpr worse, involves Icamir^, self

CEamlninon, and one's relationship Co others and Co the oivlronmeDlr Inner

questioning demands effofi and will Incvtiably be difflculi. Having been
btoughi up to tiki i fitm amd om their eetticude&— valuej, profe&jlon. Faith.
and so on- hum^n bfing^ are now iaclng not one change, but an
uninterMipledchainoEchjnges thj[ affect the very otlentabon of [betrbves.
To make things moic difficult, changi^E arc succeeding one anothei with
unprecedented speed. The challenge is therefore not to adapt once and for all
to 1new Kituadon, but to get mm a perrruiu^nc stat« of ada^tanon in order to
be able to iiCc iinccitalnty, die new d^menskins of con^plexliy and insldtous
or brutal changes, and avail of potential oppatiunliies a^cting our world as a
whole and each human bdng In his or ha Immediate et^rotunent
A mutant situation such js this does not mean ihal the human bemg should
passively allow himself to be iltcred by dungn or suffer dKm without t

reacdon. Neither does It imply that he must live under peimancnt stiess

i>ecause of not knowing how to underrand or ^dapt to the unprecedented

phenonKna. What instruments on he use lo undectt^nd the changes and

safeguard his frecdomi How can he become, not an i^oldted spectator

Auteursrechtelijk bescheMnd materiaal

132 • The ¥mt Ghbd RtvitlMtitm

wallowing in hi^ own pnsiinl&m, but in ictor, organizoi and capable ol

coniributlng ihroogh his spiric ot InnovaOon and his wlll^powcr (o ihc
building oF ihc kind of »cle[y h? deeply dsires.
rhcindividualhds three agenu of the re&oluikqucai his dlspo&alro help him
through [his TransitionaJ period. There 1^ nodding \tiy new about d^im. but
the tesolutique apptOich gives ihcm the prOpe: dirtiCnsians. They Ait ihe
learning challenge of education, [he conltlbuclon of tclence and the new
technologies, and the role of ma^ media.
In alE the piccedlng chapECrs. wc hi>c used dinereni terms xa refer to the
ame imperative: to leatn- to undersiartd. to communicate- to infoim, to
jdjpc, Lo minage. Thf^ words hjvc rung Inslsccndy throughout bccausr, in

thcproblemotcducationconsandy appears as a leitmotif— learning tn

Eact,

and from life and nor |usf what Is Taught in scbooL undcE^i^nding the
changeable world m which we live, ad|usling to new technologies, engaging
In Inteidksclpllnary communlcatJon of the global dimension tnio whkch we
have been projected, acUng wJih a scn&c oticsponsJbllliy £ducadDn U all this, .

even if the term may seem worn out from overuse. Indeed, the educatioiial
sys^ms of [i»st countries are undergoing a crisis and seldom satisfy emsting
needs. Wc now have to define cthci ob|ectlvcs and other prbiides for
educauon, as we aie Increasingly aware that the educational syirems, the
schcxjls, the universities are only partly ensuring what we call education, and
that the family, the professional framework and many other sodaC cells aie, on
various levels, playitkg the most important roles in educauon. The crises in

cducitjon m3kci it anesscmialcleineniof the world prablemjcique. but iti&

increasingly appeaiJngalso u a privileged agent tA die resoluUque. This Is why

II requires prime arncuiauon in the probiemalique^resoiutlque pair.

The dtaUer^ afkarmi^

First of allp wc must repeat that m our view the term 'cduuLion' goes fat

beyond chac imparted by the existing school systems. We see the most
important task of educauon B iunun^ (vrv U lam' Jt may be a trulstn to say thai
education is the key to improving the quality of human resources. Bui
education must be understood as conslstli^ of a series of processes that not
only shape vocational qualifications, but also enable the individual to actualize
hli oi hei potential by absorbing and nnasiering the cultural factcns necessary
for intelligent participation in society, for the acceptance of responsiblllly. and
foi the mainierance Que hunun djgnJiy,
-of

Unfortunardy, knowledge and social relations have reached such a slate of

L. ^cNaUnMiLrdnflii|,icpatlta the Club DdtQinc. ^Podin. Elirundiii. Miltta. JV7g}.

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal

coinplnlty thai ih? educational system has bfcorriF a nattiial pify \o [hrer
affljtuons - plethora of knowledge, anathronismE, and unsunabilfty^
This jflffwra if bvirif% applies Co aU age IcveU ih-c sh«r sale of the
jccumulatiofi of knowledge jn all fields means ihai *c tx) haigcc know how
to 5el«i whjt should be ajnsmiEwd to children and ^nidenis. To Ott an
example, the quaiDty of icieniilic and lechnltra! publlf JTlons in 15S6 alone
equalled ind perhaps surpassed that of all scB^alji^ jnd opots Erom the
ren>ote*r pail up to World War [[.tfcw Is such a fiood of Information to be
sotted out' How IS 11 to be traiumlited' How can we select what Is to be
trarrtm[itcd^

Ajio^Fuimm occur because this flond of Informstton Is constantJv bring

renewedi Ideas are modified as new knowledge 45 added dn and <iualifi« die
old TcL txwhete ate pdmaryand secondary teachers tetialncd.
practically

They teach what they were taughi twenty years before in quite a different
cnvlionmcni. Even with rcLrajning - which would be Emtnense progress in
ii^eLf - they would eDII be behind dnKs stnce it b not po^iibLc to pass on

knowledge undl khas matuted az^ been fuUy ab^rrbed by the br aln, and this
process takes drnCr
UnsHJfflftfjfLi Is what canfuscd children and vcung people feel characterize!

the conventional educatTon they receive, since ildoesnotprc^rly relate to

the world they have lo face. Television and strip cartoons, novels and
science-fiction films, the univerEe of conaete, glass and a lu minium, all seem a

very far cry from whji i: uught di sdiool. All too often, uocjuonil Hiining
does not prepare them for the crue nee<kof the labour znarkci and sotncdnies
even trains them for johs that no longer ems:. This situation ts difficult to

remedy since the effects of structural and cuiriculuni retorm -with all their
unwanted side effeCD - are fell only In the bng term, after at least ten or
fifteen ycits. Moicovct, the actual length of that long term cannot be
predicted.

U&leiipkx^p uni]«r$lJrdpfQr|husl|l^aiitJrrii Danoibeldle, donoiw^lk

aimlessly, do rK>r wander without a d»tinatloii. How sfiould you live?
How sl-icuJd you go on fer a sliort time? Thev iJy " 's v*ry difTioill to live
on lite earth, a pNce of [erriflc stajigle, my lltllf UdVj ir>y Unle bJrd, my
irctle oTtt.

amxImfroETi Hc/^^Lwc/jcd^l

Jf educaOon has been dadltionally considered li a function of teaching.

LA 1^ ircnturr pcc-Cokinibun qiwADDn cdlmol b^ Bcnudlm dc Satugun.

Auteursrechteliik beschermd materiaal

today and even more in the future, education should m«ntJicjifniiflnfFt(fiTft(fl
tfkanin^ by cveiy human being in hkIcij, LcimJn^ how to idipt to change
hjs become one of the new primary objccavcs of cducaOon.
From chclE vcij infancy, human beings begin to learn by ictlng,
pjrtlclpjdng 3nd cxpcilmcndngH and not mctdy looking on pj&^ively. Even
tn early childhood, a human being Is learning lo be i proagonl&t rather thm i
speciaiot. It Is through this active relationship with his human, naiutal and

physkat envltorunent, and solely in this tdadonsbkp, that a person s ^nseoF

independence, petson^lity and aeativjty will reach a high level of
drvfLopmcnc. Ic^uld br icmembcred, though, thitcoaccposldvdydon
not imply the non-observance of all rules or the reiecnon of restrictions.

The education of every human "being u any age must embrace the multiple
functions dut mark the learning process and guide ittowards the Immediate
future, with die following ob}cctives:

— acquJTtng knowledge;
— siruciunng mtelllgencc and developing die alQcal faculties;

—developing self- knowledge and awareness of one's gifts and limitab'ons:

^learning overcome undesirable impulses and destructive behaviour;

to

— pennanendy activating eKh person's creadve and Imaginative faculties;

—learning to pay a responsible role In sociciy;

—learning to communicaie with others;

—helping po3p3f to pr^pait for ind jdipt to chuige;

—enabling each person lo acquire aglofjal view of the world;

— training people lo become capable of solving problems.

In the world of today, these last four points constitute the onl^ way to

pEepare future adults to face die world of tomorrow, but they are snil

practically Ignored In the classic educational proces^s. All kinds of more or

less cofivinang reasons are produced to eitplain this gap — from the

overloaded cuirJcula to die inadequate training o( the teachers In quasi-

explored fields. Some countries, such as France, have introduced a

compulsory subjecr which they call Civtc Education in the school curncular
It ^ems obvious that 'Woild Education', as a subteci, or belter yei
'IntToducnon to the Great World Problems and the Problcmatique' should
henceforth be i compulsory subject in the ctlucation of children and
adolescents.
The role of the teacher to whom die future of the child is entrusted is one of
the most noble roles of society and requires dedicanon Tel in many places the
leacfier Is under valued, underpaid and given a relatively low status in society.

Auteursrechtelijk beschertnd materiaal

136 • The Firrr Giobal Rji^luTum

jdjustmcm to cfungc 3ad the managcmcncof Instablllcy so ;mo be crc^dve J

For ibeli spiritual and imclleclual balance- for thdr ability to overcome
90-calkd^€^^fyh|[<k^ti?nSrltie7 need new arms which ihey can actually find
wjihin themselves, thou^ they ate not awate of them and have never
practiced ustng them- 1 hey weH have CD resoii lo combinations that have be^
scorned tor toolong. 'Thehuinanb(lngisllhinkingtMd,' WtOUP^iCal/Bul
that whkh Is cerebral and imxUeoual In a humtn being cannot approach as
myslcrtous a truth f^ re^kv unless ii tesorts to searching the appatendy
inatkonal, the intuitive, and the emotional elements, which ate. to a great

ejttent, the foundation of human telaclonshlp$-

The lole of eduntton k thus eurn mor? viol than wc havf imaginfd. Bui ii
will take miich research and wotk to ccthlnk the concept of education and
ena"ble It to acknowktlge the dimensions of the needs In the coming times
such diat the educatois of today and tomorrow wlllbclna bcttci position to
discover the Immens^y and the nobility of their task: Do lead the way to an
cvoluiion of ihc mind dnd behaviour ^d thus give birth io the new
dvilization.

The Uhfiihutwti oficuTfce ami technolftffy

In chc Industdaljzed countries of du Noith, society has been sluped by

[echnology, iheit way of life has adapted icself Co make full use of it, and
prosperity has been butit on 1l. Technology Imported from the Industclall^ed
wofId Is also being used Ir the urbanized areas c>f the South. At the same time,
many of the problems of concemporary sodety have b«n aused direcdy or
Indirectly by technology or, mtne often, by Its misuse. It is to be evpecied,

therefore, that technology wich lis seminal partner science will be an c&^eLinal

dement of cbc tAolutiquc,

Science and lechtxilogy are too often lesumcd to be more or less two
aspects of die sanK ching— 'research and development gives rise to sdcnce
and technology.' In reality the system of sdence and that of technology are
v«y different. That of science fcsopen and lis produc: is freely disseminated

throughout the world: thai of technology is directed bv economic

motivaucKU and ilA products are (cabusly guarded com meicial pioperLy-
ThciolcofKlcncclatouncovcikno'rvledgc. lLexploicstbcun}uwwnat>d
provides new tiata. Data is not in itself informatics but the raw material of
inftirmation. which human inielligcnce through a ptocessof selection, orders
and coalesces to ptodiKe infomutkin. A niutilx of informabon can become

illfaPiigogirK. Nobel laureate In 111 vi^ 11^ jmcmbcr of [he Club of Rome, Lkvekip«dia
loptc bf llllanUy in hli works-

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

knowltdgf. Again knowledge (£a« no I sponunroudf goierjtf
undersiandiE^g; for thi$ li requite? wisdom bom of CKpcricncc. VciMi wc -ace

concerned with i H:onilnuuin which runs from crude ixA. [hrough

mto-rmation and knowledge to the end Teflnemenr al wisdom Dau we
poss«& in large quantities, but inFormadon can easily be concealed jnd lost jn

JE&dJHirder. Today we have enormously greater amounts oFinFormatEonind

ki>owlcdgc about mm and the universe than out lotcfathcrt hid. but thcic
ate few sips thai human wisdom h^s incteased signlhc^ntk ovet the \ii\ f l^e
thousand yeais In these difficult and complei: nmeswe begm loiealiie thai
the putsuit of wisdom Is the essential challenge dial faces humai^ily.

Where IsTheknowledBf w^iftllsk>st ininforruttor?

And where ii ttw wisdooi thai Is tosr in hnvwredgie?

T.S. Eliot-

One would expect thetefore that teseatch on the luEuce of wisdom and \ii
genetation would be of ifie highest pnoriLyr But have wc the ingredients lo
srati such a ^tojcct. acid if ptesented to otic of the gieac [^search [oundaiicins.
would it hope of accepartc-;? However, m teceni years much
have a

knowledge has been gained on die workings of the btiin. on hum^r

behaviour, and indeed on the nature of homo upiens. ^och inlerdisciplmaty
reseatch, -which involves biochemistry, physiology, neurology,
endocrinology, molecular biology, psychology, anthropology and many
other sciences, holds gteat ptomise and should be jciivcly mppocied,
althou^ Its finding may seem, at thJs stage, metelv theoreucal. It should
explotenoEonly the rational mind, but also emotional and intuitional aspects

ofhemgwhKhplaysuchantmporuni part in the life of the individual and Are

j[ the toot of his appjiendy inatlorul a[iliude^ jnd behaviour
Researchalmedattheextensionofknowledge and conducted witEioutthc
aim of immediate practical use js known as pure o[ fundamental research and
It is usually undettafcen in the laboiatoilc^ of universities oi, as m the East
European countiies. in tfle institutes of Academies of Science. Scientific
Euiopcati countries, in die Insiltuw* of Academics of Science Sclenitfic
undersiandlng, iti^ng fiom puie research is an essential clement of
contemporary culture. University research also has an important educational
functionr Umvecsitv teachers who are Ktively engaged in research and hence
working at die advancing froniier^ of knowledge ate able to cransmlt ihc splnr

1. Biimh p«i dnd Mctr^r iiUA-iW]

Auteursrechteiyk beschermcJ materiaal

138 • The First GkMRffftlutmt

of eHc scientific meihod and to Inspuf thtir ^ludmts. This function Is u

Imponant In the less developed k in ib? Indusiriillzed countries. Indeed n Is j

pterequisltc to the undersonding of today's wtirld, necessary l[ the offering

of science and technology arc lo be of use in the process of development
There is 3 second type of fundamenal research ir^cieasingly puisued in

indusmaliZMi \t%\i}t\%. (\^tt\t\y oriented fundarnent^J research, which is an

essential pan of the inpui In the dewlopmcm of the most advanced
technologies. Such research, while not expected lo have direct praccical
application, is needed to identify areas of ignorance which have lo be
eliminated in the develt>pment of advanced technical procesEes, Such

rc^jrch mjy be cattied oui in the Ijboniorir^ of corpotJiion& or under

contract In universities- Itcanrhusbf^ very useful link between tndusrry and
academic
Much re^e^ich [oday Is of a direc[ly applied nature, aimed at solving
spccihc problems in indusliy. agriculture or the public services. It may be
research in ;hc ndiur^l ^cicncn iuch n chcn^lsn^y. physics dnd biology, or i^
economics and chc behavioural sciences Indeed, the complexity of so many
coniemporary problems demands a cotnbined Attack from several disciplines.
Experience shows thai in such multidisdplinary approaches, research workers
from m^ny sciences, natural and social, in dealing widi ^ particular complex
problem, soon acquire a degree of communication which transcends the
boundaries between the disciplines. The cultivation of mullidiscplinary
research is uigenrly required by the resolutlquc. It Is difficult to generate
within the uniuer^ines, &ince they jre uerdcjlly organized into departments
and faculties which often have liltleamlaclwitheachother^Apphed research
rrwax. be intensified m the developing .countries where ic is already widely, if

InsufficieniJy, pursued in the agrfculiuial sector. In such countries it a much

less common m indusliy. siiKe the small size and relatively law level of

iophisiicatJon of firms mikes 11 difficult » Identify technical prijbkmi or 10

afford to employ scientists to solve them.
Technological development is the essential . but only the initial step in
industrial innovation. Ii consists of bringing together technical knowledge
acquired ihrcugh research or purchase, and todevelop it through j chemical
pilot plant or engineering prototype so as to be a reliable and effecnve
nianufaaurmg process, which is competitive In the market- Thccost of the
development phase is usually greater than [he cost of the reseatch stage on
which IT ISHowever, there are many other elements involved in
based
cechnologicdt innovation, such as market surveys to test the potential demand
for the new product and hence its economic viability, the acquisition of risk
capital and management shI Is. as well ds recruitment and training of a reliable

Auteu^srechteli|k beschermd materiaal

Missing page
140 • The First GXtMRtmlutum

wc dcsnoy ^ and f+>ereby ounclvw.

3i wiving or jlIpYlaQng man^ of the contcmponr^ problems. These

Innovaiions will be both remcdtal jnd prevcnDvc, Vic shall outline here i

tew of the most obvious lines of jctack.

Fintas alrndy sfT«5ed. riwK Is an immediate nctd foi a iwa^iivc camfdlgn

for energy conservation and efficiency. On the consetvaoon side, the
requirement 1i more for ihe appiicsuc^of well uiidersrood Eechniques than
foicncirch. However, if thks Is lo succeed [here wlII have lobe considerable
changes In human habln, and chl5 w/lU cnuil new iciivides In the sodal

wlcrTces. Th^rc rs. houjtver, great icopc for rficarch aimed at Improving
efficiency in the genefiuon, uansinitsion and utilization of energy (tor
exaiTiplc» by using supezcondLiaoi^] in the design of new types oi
. en^nes , in

michlnesofawideviiretyofEypes, andmcheErLicalm^nubcruit' Techniques

of energy accounting: need to be developed and applied. WhJle the bulk of
these effoits will have to be made in the tounoles of the Nonh with their
energy Imei^ve eccmom^. the South with Is incicjsmg papulations will
fice the same needs, k Is encouiaglng [o note ibe recogni [ion of this In die
recent 'Nairobi Declaration on Climadt Change' [Ma? 1W0|.
Secondly, ItvFlllbenecessary (o give i very high priority loan Iptematkmal
ptogtammc of rcscaich on altein^Qve energy sources and simibr work in

Individual counoiC3- This should include nuclear fuskm development-

magnetohydrodynamlcs and the whole range of soft energies. Workshoiild
iho bf jccelenied on Ehe possibilities of i futuie hydiogeti «onomy, ihc gas
being produced by the decoitiposiOan of watei by eleorolydc or caialydc
nicans.Thts is not an altetnacfve energy but an energy transmisslDn method
for use in luiomobjies, aircraft, and so on, if oil becomeB costly or is

discouraged for earth wjrming reasons.

fteyond this, the search tnusi go on for new, clean technolcrgies and foi

ways to clean up uadirlona processes- I In the chemlcaJ Irhdustry, for cjtample,

research could be directed cowards ImprovtDg nKthods of manuEaccute
including reiearth on new catalysts S«cJtch In this Induary must also be
aimed at Rndfng ways to make toxic wastes harmless with mttilmum energy
espendilure Here, as in other industries, reseaich on recycling techniques is

required. A further tzsk for the chemical indus^y 4j to dcv^ bode^AdAUc

plastics for packaging and other purposes.
In agriculture and ihc jgrci irkdastriCS a deUrmlMd iHon \i Meded U
reduce energy me. Much useful research is already in progress in breeding
non- leguminous cereah capable of ^xing their own nitrogen, which will
reduce the u«e of nittogcnous fcitllizcjs. More woik is required to repUcc

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd inatenaa!

 AgetmoftbtRaotuiiijw • 141

chemical p«ticld« b^ Uolo^c^l coniral sysicms. uj Jnimstfy icscjtcK in

genetic engineering w as to provide basic cereal crops with grcitcj tcsisiance

Lo insect and fiuig^l d^mige dud dlfo lo po^ibk changa m cIJeihic.

In ibefteld of trark^porEalicm dJK> Inteiesting workLs In progress iiiKc, in

view of [he desirabjikyof encouraging communal Qivdllng, new ^ndflcKible

&)rstcms of urban trazsporadon aic urgently required.
SfMHH atii ittkntla^^ iof Atfdtpmnl. CHspailtfcs between developed and
developing countries in&ctenceandlechnology are even greater than in their

economic leveb. Same ^ per centof the winld's research and development is

carrted out in the industnalized councnes. Ii Is aUo true &ai the poorer i

country i&, che grwicr will be [he pioporOon of Its tcienOsts wgaged In

fundamental research. While the large developing counoles such as BraztL

India and Mexico have an Infiasauauie capable of supporting a slgniflcanc

CKtent of applied te$eaKh and development. In die tai of die developing

world there is Litde appl;ed research other than Ln agriculture. In luch
countrin, a mcic numbrr ol ^cjentisu unlikely lo influetxe
Incicisc In [he i^

eoKKimic growth; indeed it u more likelyto increase the brain drain. This is
because there Ls generally no employment ftn the scientists in the productive
seoots. Sdence in ibese countries can only contribute slgniflcandy to
development if Ir Is tndmately linked with the produciTve process.
It \i generally accepted that i impi, dnd perhaps Ik indict need in ihc
devcbpmeiLt of the South is the creatian of an indigenous capacity in each
country for research and development. This was the main conclusion of the

UN Conference on Science and Technology for Devebpment held tn Vienna

in 1979, at ivhich various Anandal and other mechanisms were devised to
make this possible. After morcthan a decade, however, there is litde to show.
Yet the need remaim to build this capacty if the developing countrtes are to
enter the modem world economy There . is a vicious circle here Jf productive
cjpKity js [0 grow jud hei^ce If development Is to ukc pUcc. i critical

scientific and technological Infrastructure is necessary. ¥et such an

infrdfCTUcture seems impos&rble to build unless it is In symbiosis with the

productive meanSr The means to overcome this impasse present a vial

challenge to the countries corKenied and to the International community.

Thr Toit of man mtdiit

The impact of ma^ media en public o[>Ln]onjnd Individ uah no IcrngcE h^to
be demomtraied: a larger and larger part of huTn^nkind will henceforth be
deeply influenced by theradioand prf^rimmes it has access to. For
tele vision

bener or for worse, the media are among the main agents involved in formjng
public opinion and influencing [ht! Lhiiiking of individuals.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

142 • The first GtehtdRrPslutvm

The rol? oF miss m«dla, however has so f^T ntvcr betn d«ply^ly^ ^
,

all Jrs dlmcnsJons, Wc know very llttlr dbout the Ddtur? and durition of ihe
mHuence of various media. Out ECisonkng Is based more on impressions and
hypotheses dun on clearly esabllshcd facia- even In die West, litc
phenomenon IS sail recent and the leasonlng Is founded on the reactions ot
Western public opinion. In developing rauntrles the phenomenon u even
more recent and stiU of quiic limited scope, i^hich makes d>e $cudy of the
reactions in these countries more problematic.

rhc icdctions that have been recorded so far are for ihe most part cillical
when diey dre not outright ncgauve- the iziesponsLblty of journalise \i

frequently ctlUclied, n Is their subjccttvity and 6c1t lick of pofoslonjl

cthics.fiutthegeneralroleof massmedlaistoonewfor ustobeabletodraw
definite conclusions alum It. This uwhf it is hltlng to consider the question of

the true power of mass media, and of the role they now play and can play In

future in the bulldmgofthe new global socictyr The answer to these questions
i^ccnsitaLes i dialogue with CDmmui^icidon profcsslonaL with a view lo
fmdmg out what role they are ready to a^ume, not only for a better

comprehension by the public of the world problematiquc, but also of the

maliLikqu^,
Experience has shown that the power of the media often refer ted to Is not
just an Impression There is no question about the reality of such power-
consider, for example, the role pEayed by transistor radios In Inciting the
Algerian war of IndependeiKe, or the pressure brought to bear by the press in
the Watergate aflair which kd to the leslgnatlon of cbc prRident of the
United Slates.

The medi J aba represent a balaixing power In democracies by exposing

pollncal or financial scandals, as also by defending consumer interests. It Is

true that they are alleys in danger of being in*niputaicd — whatever the
political regime— due Lo political ptcssure, ecoiwmic Intcrcats.

disinformation procedures or even self-censorship. Mass media, especially

television, have acquired considerable power over the last two decades- they
have not, however, reached the level of maturity and rGponslbilicy which <hc
exercise of such power would require. Where development is concerned,
television has often complacently displayed horrifying images of the hunger
and death of children in Ethiopia and Sudan, images that seem to have been
taken out of Nazi coikcentratlon camps Viewers across the world have been
.

amply exposed ro the sensational aspects of underdevelopment and have

been brutally shocked by such images.
However, doesn't the public expect this dramatic version of inFormauon?
A frightening even! induces curiosiiv Jnd the newspaper headline War

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal

Missing page
144 • The Pint GhkUR^PotMim

(bscunlons. Envlronnvnal and pollutton j»ues src Omldly making an

appearance In fotmc pcogrammoH while development Is jusi bcginnjng ro
be trcjicd in l{5 pralQve dspMO.
Wc prcvlouEiy mcnOoned in number of mofc
aui fKomiTKndjtion^ a

spedfk subject! thai have co be brought co ihc acccnbon oFchc pubbc (hrou^
fducanoiul prog^amrtit^^. ^ufh a envirsrtfflf auI pfoKcfloft, owrgy avlng,
the role of science and lechnology, ihe Incerdependen-ceof countrlnln the
North and those in ihe South and whalthis means for each Ddhem, and so on.
The freedom of mEortnitlon, the Ereeactes foraJJ to Information and the
pfi] ralism of InfixnHllon remain *e noble causcjof bacdes never totally won
md foiewCT waged 3g3ln. In ihc process of jdipOng To change, crfconanut>us
learning in a transiuonal society, and of adiusting to uncenauity and
connplexiCy. (be tole at dnc media becomes comideiabLe,
[I will certainly be necesjary ro engage In a broad debate wnb the
)oumali&Es and top niedJa executives in order to deRne theii new role. This U
dn inlQitivr the Club of FUitnc will ccctiiniy taXc a [he flisi seep In i long
dialogue^

Auteu^srec^lteli|k beschermd materiaal

 10. Motivations and Values

Wc rclumchncc morelDoncof thcmainmollfsof ihecontcmporiry *«ik.

the domlnani inllucrtcc of technology in shaping our lives and society.
Scdrrng Ertnn the IndusDJdl RcvoluWnp ^vc have gradually aOapicd out
dnd iifestyJes lo fit in wl[h an ever moie &ophj$<lca[cd ^nd petv^s jve
jspiiaiions

technology which has pennlned die «n)oymeni of what has bcei^ seen as
mjterul proigres. This has, ai course, incrca&ed die pcosperkry of i wjdc
cross section of [he populaOon in the Industrialized couniries, while reducing
poverty. Improving health condlttons, extending Ufe especl^ncy, providing
general. If not always appropriate, education, and introdudng inany social
amenities. The recagniOan ih^i technology has a detern^in^uve mie In world
dewlopment is relatively recent and, ev«j today, the economic iyncm which
relies so heawJiy 00 technological solutions to problems, has not yet fully come

to terms with ti. It Is still Implicit In the thinking of many economists that

lecbnologtcal developments ajtse ^om the Inter actioTi of economic fraces and
are, jsJiwcre. one of the muscles of Adam Smith's 'Invtslble hand' There is

no doubt much truth in this; however, morr and morr trchnologica]

innovatKjns originate from discoveries Jn the sclenUAc laWatotlcs ^d could
not have been foreseen. Thecefbie, sdcnce is (he autonomous force which
gives lise to profit motivated technology, In cteaiing new products and
systems, and hence new demands.
Despite the unwanted social and ecological side effects of tcchnobgyn and
i general suspicion of It as the creator of the nuclear bomb and of genetic
manipulanorts, general expectationsaf an cver-mcreaamg affluence and more
and more niaierijl possesions flowing from it pcisist wjthin an economk
sysiem which Is driven by the sdmulallon of consumer spending and credit

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

146 • The Fmt GUIml B^Pt>lmim

The lu:furl« of yesrcrday become the nccc^lQes of todiy;

dvilJibiLiy,

pUnncd olMolciccncc speeds up the Eumover o{ goods, the «as[ti iA jodcty

ucumulileand are even more difficult lo dispose of as HJenQfk: saphlstiudon
diffuses Into ever^y goods.
There is, of course, the other side of the coin. Considerable amounts of
wealth from economic growth hive been dtverted to the Creadon af social

ber>eflts — uneinploynient bene^ls, health services, education, and welfare

mea&utcs to reduce poverty In a number of couhhICh this process has been so
.

strong thai It has evolved to form the welfare sate, which U benefidaT but hx,
psychological costs. For Instance. It is felt by miny that the welfare approach
cncouiagc^ ah ovci reliance on the sate, wich an utibcalihy loi^tlng of
individual responsibility and InlQadve. The pcernahsm of employers, that
was resented so much by the trade unions, has been replaced by the
paternalism of the state whose huge bureaucracies are. In turn, regarded as

distant, faceless and Impersonal.

The materialistic technology baicd approach to dcvelopmcni h^
penetrated Into societies and cuhures of all lypcs, and even the most tigid
fundamentalist cultures find Ir impossible to resist the pnnnlse trf power and
affluence which il appears to offer. The goal (>f material 3^uence SMMS 10

gctvciaie gieed and selfishness. Not that these features ha ve ever been ibsent
In Individuals and sodedes. but they appear to be magnified by the shrinking
of oon materialtst values- and have become more apparent due to rhe
tllsclosuies of corrupdon. crime and financial scandals by the press.

Our presenl civjiiiation is based materially on an pviraofdinarily

successEul r«hnology and splituail/or practkally nothing,

DernlsGabor'

The shorccommg of science isthatalthou^hithascantrjbutcdgicatlyiacHir

material well being, promodng health, increasing our lltcspaEin giving us
leisure, it has done llide to enrich human existence, Ln comparism with

tlirecdy material Improvements. The imperative need now is to attempt to

master techixilogy andmould it to suit to make i\
a human environment, so as

conxribuic to chc general and ^uaiainabie well being ol i\\ peoples in this
generation and the succeedmg generations, within a holistic global and even
cosmic framework, and to balance material advances by culuvating soclaL
moral and spiritual attributes. This is becoming as obvious in the developing
countries as it is already In the industrialized countries.

I Cdbor, Ytn

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal

Missing page
148 • The fmt GhihtU Bivotmum

generation {eels ihc jbiencc of d sense oi ^IFand th«y do not know where lo
look fcR j[.

These feature . projected from che Individual level, operaw

anrespondlngly In die envuonmml. Nauoul egoism Is likewise
social

ambtval-cnE! 1[ can express Itself as a natural and desirable bve of one's counn^y

nr fihntf community, or cu b? whipped up lo arouse chauvinism,

ii

xenophobia, racism, hatred of other onin tries at styles of living, and finally lo
caus« a -kvar. In Inumabcinal negotiations ic often surfaces as the advocacy of
narrow self tnccte^c by one nation harmony and future
against the wkder
well being of a gioup of nations. Including Its own, and often iacttfices

long-ccrm self itiicicsi to scoic Immediate tacrtcal pdnu.

The exigence of these matteis Lsseldojii acknowledged ind when they

do emerge, they ate shiouded in taboo, if this diagnosis Is dt all vahd, theie
would seem be anced for IlfUrtg the taboos and hortcsd^ acknowledging
to
the existence and power of the negative and positive aspects of tntllvldual and
collective bchavioui, and tot ddoptuig an ippmth based on the cnlighiencd
comrtHHi Inteiests of every inhabitant of this small planet to ensuie that
sustainable physical and social environments can be established for ourselves
and our descendants.
Thisseltcentrctinesj, however. Is merely one aspect of a broader question:
what are the spliJtual and ethical "values that will constitute a Foundation tor

the xwrj global society, the emergence of which we are observing today'

Oh stwler of songi, my ^leJ^tl

 Moavadimt atuJ VWmo • 149

pa^lonalc qii«t whtdi tmaruLa from the collective uekoiucIous analysed by

Carl |ung.

Individ ujh and groups uc Incmsingly placing this iuuc aithc forctioncof
ibeirconcfim. IhusiheSouthConimjs&hjnHptcs^dcdovcrby lulku&Nyctcrc,
cxpics^ a vcty clear poaltkin In thac respeci In lo last report [1Q90] , showing
&tgns of an encouraging rise in awireness:

In xhc final analysis- die Soudi's plea for justice, equity and democracy in

the global society cannot be drssociated trom its pursuit of these gOals
wlthtn Lis own societies. Commitmeni to democrauc values, respect foi

fundamental rights— paTOcularly the right to diucnc— (air Ufatrrfnc for

minorities, concern for the^oor and undetprulleged. probity in public

ItFc. willingness lo snde dispuEcs without recourse to war — all these...

increase the Souths chancn oE securing i new world order.

However, noble dedaritmns such as this, whkih formerly inspired

individuals and sociPt)es, no longer snm to be accepQble in Lontemporar]^

aaiviiy, [n the behaviour of peof^ and of states, even thc«e widi
consntutkmally guaranteed Eights, morals are flouted and the law ignored or
twisied to suLi the EXRivenlence of the authorities- [n 50 many Ed jDorL^h:ps jnd
areas of communxation, the Implicit trend is 'back to the jungle'.
A^ already mcnUoncd. people need tg p«xss a xnx of xlf respect If they
are to lead a life of decent human dlgnlry- This was understoodwellknmany
iraditKinal socteDes, but it is very dlfflcull to sustain in die whirlwind of
change. As a consequeiKeofthe many cross-continenal migrations, people
are laced with culturtlconiradtctkins, and often e:tpcneiKe an identity crisb

or are demoralized. In Wc$tem society with rhcLr shallow consumerism h

'[

am what own' or 'Nmwhitldo',

I the more FundamentaEaipects of bfc have
shrunk in importaiKe, including those of religion, ethnic identiity, and
Inherited value? anti bellefe. Such i iJtuacion lead* lo hypet individuality,
selfishrie^iof all kinds, over ^consumprkon. a^ well Js an excessive search tor
distraction, as tor instance in TV viewing and drug addiction. There is an
obvtoui need foi a newa.pp(a»ch in which values are deliberately inculcatetl

to prtivide spiritual ^cnh and meaning lo the life of the individuaL however,
change is very often Kcn aa threat to the self
Have tTad^r^o^^^l values then been suddenly forgotren or abandoned^ Have
ipli nuaKalucsb-een set aside ill at once? What li the evidence Mn our chapter
on 'The Human Malaise' we Indicated , that these values have in tkct been
progrcsisively rejected by receni genera.cions. In the industrial societies
spiritual values have been en>led by the Invasion of niaterialiHn whkh has

also infcaed the elite classes in the developing countries. Again, confusion in

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal

150 • The Fmt Global RfPohaioH

vaiuesarlsFs in BoniF coanttifs from [ht crj;« in ihc ma|ot religions, duelo
tbe djEEicuLty ihfx fjc? in adapting to i world which ti ur>dcrgolng tapld
chnige wjihoui lo^jng chc oKintc d their mf sa^gc, as wf u of rrsponding to
LI

Cht ^rioui questioning of the bewjldcrcd pcc^lc of thdr congregatians.

Moral values aic alio being eroded, since they are fUpandy Jgjwicd by dw
individLulsandudedesloTw-hamibey are presumed robe [he Insplrarloaul

message. Lax behavloui, selfbhness md nuienjli^m appeac to have made

tbcm Inelevani^ But people arc troubled by such ^ympioms. Ncv^ r before has

the issue of values been thesE]b)ec[of so many symposia, discussions and so

much research This demonsiraies that a need Is being expressed with
Increasing intensjiy for J value ?y?iem which would provide stablTlty to the l[fe

oEindividkiaksandsocEcty.and which would inspire the vision of a syslemaUc

wocid capable of leading to a syaematic future,
mean thai a new value system Is In the mahtng, which would be In
C3oes this
opposltlantotradiuonal values or to dvcapadtv of tradlOonai values to lake a
itandonihe new challenges, such as gcnetit engineering, thjc no ubk human
conscience and judgement' Can «e speak today of universal human values
ihac would be common to aW the inhabltancs of the planet, despite the
diversity of their cultures?

These questions are not euy to answer and yel they are whiit our future
depends on: ? globaC society on hardly be poaiblc wjthoui being based on
oimmon or compatible values diat will shape attitudes, die common
delciminationtoface up to challenges, the mor^l strength to respond to them
and the mjnagem^rtt of change We cifinot want the emetgh^^ ^bb^l society
unless It Is Eo-unded on \hc pouiblllty of llvltkg together widi the aciLcptancc d£
differences and plunlbm.
A Large proportion of traditional elhks are still meaningful toda^, though
they may take different forms because of changes in the conditions of
icfacncc Vinually viajv/bac. present-day wdcty Is moic open ^nd
richer, or at lea^t^^picestoa shared well being irisjlso better Informed. For
eiamp^. the Idea ol solidarity is changing f^om a concept limited to die
^inlly tribe to a much broader concept, while Hi strictly tribal connotation
may be openly dhcredLicd,
To ihj^ end, vilucs may be defined and hopefully agreed upon if ihcy are
expressed In a way idat Is bcner adapted to the present situation. Among
permanent values we would suggest freedom, human rights and
respon&ibiliun, family life, equal rights for men and women, compassion tor
tile aged and die disabled, tolerance, respea toe life and peace, and the seaich
for truthr

Auteursrechtelijk bescherind materiaal

Missing page
152 • TbeFtraGiebtURrpolutum

the cdm of»bdirnyH dlcoted by the ib[ cIk

Fict

drmeiuion of ihf probltms posrd id

humanity rod3vrcqulTC(-C^v>pfraEion
b^twe^n human bein^ as a con^
dlticn for tbdr suivivaL

Anfweiliica] vIstoD such 35 this svillneccsuiJTy have rcpcTCUSislons on ihr

national Irvf I.

In OJncluskin, the speed of evoIuOon and at current duriRn leads us to

constdct rhar the rjme lector h3£ tn ednlcal value in loelf. Ever; minuic \oiv
every dttisLcifi dcbycd mcim more dcidii from iorvaTton and malnu^ridon,
meam a fuithcr slide towards irreversible damage caused b^ polluaon
phenomena in the environment. No one will evei know foz suic the human
ai^ Ein^ridal cost tA lost dme-
OncediU has been recognized, theethksof solidarity and of tjme leads to
an ethics of scOon, where i:a[h cin?en must feci concerned and mrffiS^
hjnuelF lor acUon. The Isolated Individual alvbrayi feels helplen amidst ibe
Ininnenslty of die battle in whkh he Is surprised to find himself. This should
induce Individuals 10 associate with others, jnd to Bnd logetherihe lorce and
the effectiveness which ihey -cannot musler alone. Collective ethics depend
on the ethical behaviour d. ea^ individual m die group and It is obvious that
Invetiely, the Individual's adherence CD a code of ethical behavlotrr can be
encouraged. Invited and aiou&ed by the odlective appioach.

Hffw mn d^ffrrmi FroiJxlufnai and mo4im, colkcrtvf and individual vniui sy^t^ems
&nxist both in a sodrtv and at shf individual ievei}

The emergence of certain untveisaJ values such as human Ei^ts or lespeci

for nature does not mean the end of uiccstial values even thou^ they may
con [ladia «<:h oihei Inaddicon, individual values may aiumes conflict witfi
collective vaJucs, or one value mjy conflici with another . A classic example of
tht^ conflict Is the sale of arms, which is a source of profit fac anattonarnda
source of employment For numeraus men and women, yet isLn opposiOon
to the same nation's dmre fcir peace.

The hain'i^nTlouftc existence Q^v^rydiffacnt values tsnodiJngncWpbutK

has been seriously undet mined by the rise in fundamenTaium. It Is rather the
re IdOre Importance attached to the values that change accof ding to the age of
the ideology or teligion it\ sway, Aj eich person Is biologically and sodo-
culiurally uolqiie, die emc^lf should be on the individual aspect.
"CoJkctlvc' values ve often the outcome of a choice made — or worse.
Imposed— by those holding; the reliu of pon/ein who warn at all costs to

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd materiaal

 Meapot^mj and Valtus • \ S3

lmpo^t on tlv Fot by showmg conEcmpi forothcis' valua, by

iheir values
evm^CEcmptingEomppmsthfm. 'Collfctivr' values cm only be ukcn inio
coriMdcraDon when ihrre r^iisis iruf trrcdom dnd d hlgb level uF culiuril
development-
Elite ctrclcs 3EC ohftn icconckkd easily ixi changing values despite the
jurfatccono-ovctsy. The general public is iim involved, oril)' manipulated, in
dcb^ieiof ihls t^. The gulf between elite thtnkmg and popular thinking js
enormous. It Is here that wr find dtstortionsarKllensLonj that are difhcult or
even impossible \d resolve.

The jnrcrcsting and important point here is that di^ercni value ^yjiem^ do
In fare (onTlnuf to » etlst, fven though their u eilsienre I& somminn
coloured by opposlnon and rnlstrust. Indeed, it Is not so much a question of

the Co ejilstence of conindictory value -systems as of the same values beii^

interpreted jn different terms. When all Is said and done, the factor that

makessuchco cjiisteEice possible, as abo the plutalliy of InicrpEeiatkons, IS the

capacity br dt^loguc jnd communication.
To conclude this brief survey, we must two phenomena that are
stress

going \Tt opposite ways. There Is Indeed a weakentng of rhe moral sense of
Individuals, who fed cheated noc only because the ethical structure that used
to serve as their reference and to whld^ they wlllhigly submitted has

collapscdp but dUo bcciuK the ihicais po$cd by the contcmpotaiy woild
JlCuaiion have frightened them into a chilly self- withdrawal Sunultancously,

there is a prOigtcsslve collective awareness of the great problems of the world,

old and new. which is encouraging research on solutions. The spiritual and
ethical dimension is no longer an obiea of scom oi Indlfieicnce: Ji is

perceived as a necessity that should lead ro a new humanism.

May Il» divine ^rlT prcnct us may hc work Eog^Thtr with grpat
a(l;

energy; may our sludy be Fruitful jnd itioroLigh; may [here be no hau-ed
between us.
 — —

11, Learning our Way into a New Era

We shall make no artempf \o summarize f^itr conrluskms: Indeed the wrj

raturc of ihc ptoblcnuElquc preclude such a ^wsiHlty. Imtad we shall

make some observations md ^uggeifkms iS to how to blaze a Qall Into the

unkriown landscape of dK fucute (hrough learning, which is a Jcadmg tutiuc
of the resolutique. BcEoie doing u. how^vtr. we shall ce staie a Fewguidil^
piliKlpks [h3[ arc scattered throughout the book;

'
— need foe the mvolvemert jnd parucip^non of ev^iyone in seeking a wij
through die InceicwlEitng complex of corucmpor^ry problems;

— recogniOon that the posslblllQes o( posftive change reside In the

moQvaiioai ^kJ valuer ihac detcrmiiK nu behavhour^
— undetstandJngdiat^bfhavkjurofnanoniandsqctetleflrenecisthatofits
Individual Qtuew and mcmbcis;
— XEcgtatKC oF t^ postulate that drarnatlc solutloos are unlikely to cotnc
from Ihe leaden of govenimenls, bul that [housands <?[ small, wise
dedsxnu. reilecnng the new realizationoEmillioni of ordinary people are
necessary for sccmldg eIw iucvival ol society;

— practice of die pttnclpic that [^vllege, whether lt>dlvldu>l or nujcnal.

must alwjy^ be complemenled by a correspondLng respotisiblllty.

Assbtedintbelntroductfon, theidejsand proposals Eoc action in tKrs^iaok

areotteredasabasLsfor learning our way Into the future. It IS HOC necessary

in^ked A would be Imposskble to expect thai there should be complete

agieemeni with ill the dioughcs wc have cxpiessed wjth regard to the world

Auteursrechleiyk beschermd maleriaal

 Ltarttii^ ffur Way mOf a Notf I^ra • 155

In rfvolulion, of on ih? r^lativF Importance wr hjvc given lo 6k various

problems. The mGterljJ preicnled here should nlher be regarded as metier
EoL 'widc^prcjd di^cuuion and dcb^K; K ii lijccodcd to sp^rk oK ^vdric^yoE
fx^mlndDoiK ind reassessments on Lbe ptn cf those responsible for the
mdmgement of sodcty n ilJ levels. We ilso hope thdt the znjny, whose
conQCt& with governance ar-e quite lemoie but wbcise future b deeply
Involved In the forthcoming changes, wiil begm ro ur>dcrstand ntiorcdeiily
\he signlfkjnce of many of the lopm present^ here, such as the
InLerdepeiKJerKe oFib? lutions and the [nteraction of the problems. The Qme
has come to show how every Individual is more or less dlreoly concerned
wtdi the problems of the world atid the rhinge* that are brewing, even if he
ot she can moie easily perceive the sytrtptoms than their causes. Even now.
few remain unCDUched^ onr hjs rally lo mention the problems of CO- existence
with Immigrants of different ethnic origins, the effect on children and
idolescents of certain television programmes, die Intemationallntton of
lutaifujbila or thr inif rnauunal ^prud of anrnimcr produm to dioujc i
vatlety d lactioas.
To leam oui way through this period oF transition and to identify sure
we have to modify -our re^^oiiing, OUT mental Images, our
polntsof reference,
behaviour and understand die realities on wbch we base our judgements so
thalwecancopewlchthl^ woe [dmutancn, with IQ array- of global issues such

as the environment, food security, developmenlof the poor countries, the

alscs of govctnance. and all the others we have inempied to describe.
The complex and uncertain siruatjr^ In the future will faru decision
makers at all levels, especially the politicians, to search for new approaches
and to adopt unconventional attitudes. But It will not be possible to

imp-lement chelr decisions, no matter bow brave and pertinent they axe,
unless they succeed In obtaining wide public support. However, general
raliiance to- change ind fear of the unknown connituie an unfavourable
environment for str-ong and unconventional action on any Issue. The
d)'namlcs of public opinton will not be able to operate usefully, unless
jiidividujls have access to lnformailc?:L about che nifure of present global
phenomena jnd acquire through their understanding oE them the conviction

[hat the vciy survival of the huminracc^ IS dtstdkcUtsalwobvious, however,

that the eloquence of the facts alone will be iraufficlent to convince
individuals that these phciwmena are of immediate concern to them. To most
people they will seem distant, theoretical and too vast In con^parlson with the
problems of everyday life, their family, and their professional, financial,

health, and day-to-day survival problems. The imge of difficulties may well
elicit a reaction of withdrawal, a refusal to understand, or anxletv at the

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd inateriaal

156 • The Firff GMai Bjvoiitimt

thought of hjvlT>g TO gnpplE dnpttr hclplnmc&s jcid IsobOon, wlfh } set of

hca ihn uc mind bogglrng m d^cii vailciy and compicxity.
Such <3oubu irid (^cling^ of alicnaOon w||] have n> be iduiow^ledged and
deliberately addrcucd so that ibcy on be d1$pellcd bf sharing Itrn. and i

^lllarlty with the bcc^ gE^duaUy achieved ihraugh di^u^ston with others.
The situation mu^t be ^^en in loal and personal tfrms. This i^ one ioson fot

the need for a new, revitalized democracyH organized on a more p^Eilapitivc

basiE. stimulated by the comprehension of global concerns.
The need, then is lo think gbbaTivdOd act locdJly'. The CI uboFRomehx,
since Ita establishment, realized [he ncHJorsuch an apf*Mch and there arc a
mu^diudc of w)ys rn lA'hich j[ couLd t>e ^icvcd^ wc oitci a fcwcjumpJra In

the following pages.

Ciaiml-IjiiallnterailKui

On die Initiative of Mauiice Strong' and die Club of ELome. a meeting was
hcldlnlWfl in Denver, widi some forty Colorado decision makers to discius
the Following question: in whdt way? do the great world problems afTett the
economic and toclal life of the stare of Colorado and in what way car. ^e
polidcjhnd economi cleider^ of ihe sate cieicisc an influence on dlosegreal
probiemsf During the work jnd discussions of the meeting, the necessity for

joinT action becan^ more and mote evidfni in a number of area, e^tccially
onenvjiounaentalmcies. treverymhabitanl in Colorado made energy saving
as well as fighting agarnsi waste his or her daily duty, their actions would
collfcduely Improvr the utuaOon of Colorado, jnd therefoie of ihf ilnired
Suie^, and of the world. It the individual ts alone, the result wril be merely
lymbolic. If a number of individuals toin to act In the direction of betrer
envlronmencal protecdon and if their influence fn the community strengthens
their fight, then the result will be significant. The Denvet meeting was
foilowed by an open foium In which the ideas and condusioni of the small,
restrtcied zrkceting were shared with a large dudrence of the general pub]ic.
Similar meedngs are being pbnned mltully m ;apjn . ^nd In other countrleSn
and simllai approaches ate being taken by other bodies and sometimes even
by govcmmcniSr
In a diffet-cntaKi, that of development, we undeiswrcd^ the idc of lc»cal
mjiL^iLvri In the development ptoce^s, often taken by non governmental
organizations, groups ofvlUagcrs. and the like, in solving piablems relating to

1. Secreor^-Cenenl of ihcUiuicd HiDonConlerciKf on EnvVDfimeniand Devdopmcnir

member of the club ol Rome
2. Sre ChjptQ 7, DcveiopmcnE Jitd UndcEde^LcipinerH-

Copy^i9hted material
 Ir^rttinjf our Way into a Nm' Em • J57

hmilng, health and hygiene, cducaiicm, ^nd so on. Such aolvidcs arc also
spic-ading in ihe bLg citv slums and these ^rc contiibuimg to inodifvmg the
concepiujl basis jnd the global vision of developmen[ pqli^tC^, (h^( d'C ihc
rcncctionor thcmuluplicilyof ^cogi^phLC.cijItunl jnd humjn SLtudtions tot

which ihey have piovidcd the realliv of experience rn the field.

The Club d Rome, in diweminating ik vie*< ifvA ehcouraging the

emergence of global ihmking in local action has encouraged ihe cceauon ai
National Associations for the Club of FLome. These now exist in about ihitty
couEltiiesin the live continents. The Asocial lOEks are governed by a comm-m
charter, some of [he jrtitltt of which insist on the na[urc of the incecaction
between chc local and global leveh:

Tach Asscciitian ihaH apptoach the global problems in term^ of the

muniry'i own cultural values and thus conirtbuw lo the general
understanding of the human condition on the pknet.

Ii ^hall have the dLi[y iq duscminate locally to decision mahen,

academics, industrial circles and the public at large, the reports, findings
andatccudesof theClub. It shall contribute expen^rce. creative ideas
and proposals towards the undcisunding of the global problems to the
Club.

The National Associations foi the Club of Rome have, therefore, the
mission of eitablishmg communication between the national rcahties and the
problcmatique as seen nationally on the one h^nd and the global thinliing of
[he club on the other, and aaing as rclavi for the circulation ^nd
dissemination ofCtub thinking In each eountiy Coing ficim global to local and
from local [o global requires a radical transformation inmodes of [hinkrng and
leasonmg which wlII become essential henceforth. It Is a new intellectual

eserdse whkh we shall have to extend and integrate.

Locai-lndivuituU taHnwliun

The picture would be incomplete :l we did thJt examine the possiblliue^ of

action of rhc individual hucnjnbcmgiHvhoisat chccenci^ of the entire edi free,

Inextrcmeca&es. such as the threat of wai or natural disastcis, individuals jre
imtnediaiely transformed inw ciiiTen?. aware of their responsibilities and
ready for cohesive action. Other less spectacular bur likewise significant
exaTTiplcsbcarwimess to the fact that individuals are not inert and indifferent

inrhetaceof imminent dangers, when [here IS an environmental rhreat close

at handr or when a situation arises where people's imerests are at srake and
gyo5i Jn^idnca of explojEaiion dre revealed, we find that ininauvn are [aken m

Copy^i9hted material
158 • The Fmr G£iM Btpottttiat

mostdlucr^ Flckb by Indlviduab, md that small groups arc pt^arcd la fighi

for causes thai affcci ihcm dIrcciLy or Indirectly, and by whicb they ictl

To mention bui a few examples, dmspon oi telephone uicn

orp nmuons, or In a different category. NCOS thj[ care for disabled children,
Id people 01 bettered ^ives, KGO& engaged mihc TLglhl against A[D$anda
host of other diseases or in the snuggle rorhaman rights, ecological groups,
pciec groups ^nd i multitude oF other devfLoprncntal NGOs sitch as wc have
presented here. Neither must we target the initiatives lh manyoountrtcs by
the jobless Co create fmplovment for thcmwlv^s o: to set up thdr own
bii&ine$s, as wfW as the NCOs (iu[ i^ere founded loas&tH &mah bu^lnesse^ i nd
to provide them widi technical assistance^

Individual commitment to actuni js theiefoic possible and already

widespread, which demorutrdtcs thit d link cai^ be established between the
human being and local or naiional acdon, which kn some cases, flourishes,

cxicixJs and become? inicrnationaL

Tht rrmerflrfiGc of the irsfbrmal lecTOf

Tb? success of gtassoofiNCO in idatlves no longer oceds to be demonsiiated.

Very oft en, the$e movements sie sparked olFbv Individual men and women.
Examples ifirougfxiiiit the woild are many, in the indian state of Utiar
Pradesh, the local people have rallied ajound 3 man calTed Sunderlal
Bahuguna to stop the construction of a USi 1.7 billion dam, which would have
submerged then villjgf & and sezjously Increased the danger of av^lanche^ in

the region. Several reports that questioned the technical feasitrthty of the
pio>cclandinelevcn-dayfas[ by Bihuguna led tJie government to backdown
on its plans. In Kenya a woman. Wacigati Maaihai — <hc founder and
president of the grassroots Green Belt Movement and mem be[ of the Club of
Rome— has Led a sua: c£sful battle to sto-pthfEonsnu^DonoN^iKty [WO floor
office building in a popular Naliobi public park, [n Mexico City, wbeieihc

problem of pollution ha? gone far beyond bonWe limits, Mjtcos Chan
fiodrlguez m.obillzed Ills neigh bourhoc-d [D form a grassroots group to reduce
thcopcratLomofacemcnt factory that was pouring cement paftidci into the

air. In the process, the group realized that to arouse the ruling party's Interest,
it h>d to appeal to the leh-wlng opposition^ and thus make the democritk:
system woik.
The enormous proliferation of KCOs can be 5«n In every sector of naOonal
and in[enaiional activity; ^ome are xtricdy professional, others represent
special interests; tfiey may be single issue group, oi may deal with general

concerns; they may have a religious ocienlation. or be based or a particular

Copyrighted material
Missing page
160 • The Fmt GJiM RtPotiUKm

nidde even on moa of ihc largoc scale through muldplf jctions on a

huaU scale.

htnovati'm ti lan^ua^. an^yxu ami Appvadi

many elcmcnn of thks gbbal icvoiuOon wc lack knoivlcdgc and dicce \i
In 60 .

noguaranire that more research will ludlogrutfr certainty, 0[[ha[ll will

yield IQ results Jn dm e for iheinio influence importdiitdmstons. Further, we
knowalnaboui&omccJcmcnB. bmwcuniiL:mdndvciylia]r. Wf luvcto
learn, ihcrefoie, to an In spite of continuing uncertaJncy, Politics has always

been the ui of making decisions under condllJons of uncertainty. The

difference today is that the uncertainty is much more and is compounded uirlth
tapld change This abldknguncertamtydcm^Etd^addptjclon of our institutions
and approaches m order to achieve grcaw:i ilcxibiliiy and a gicac capacity for
action as we train our sights on the moving targets of hisrory.

A cential challertge in this connection is how to reconcile d^ language and

concepts of economics that dominate the world today with environmental
language and conceptSr Two approaches are possible: environmental aspects
can be jddcd to conventional economic analysis, or economic Approaches can
be integrated withm a broader ecological view. Great care and precise
thinking are needed in this area, in which distlnalon must be made between
different types of economics: macrwconofnia, microecorvimlci. dnd
environmental or ecological economics. We must find ways of integrating
envirtRimcntal aspects more effectively with dK established and powerful
approaches of both macro-anxJ miaoeconomicSr

The role of the market and its relatson to the role of the govcinment Ij of
vital imparlance in seeking to resolve and manage the environmental
problems. No solutions based exclusively on the market emst m the real

world. All Western countries, for example, have devclcipcd mixed

economics in which governments provide a ftamewotk of regulations.
Incentives, support and guidelines to the private sector It has been
acknowledged that the market approach alone cinnot h^die probLi^ms of
common property resources or issues of long-term common interest- The
government must pcovide the boundary condltlona tn the publk interest.

The problems we face are not only intellectual and analytical; leal interests
and the structure of power are always at stake. In the real world, connadlctory
jntrTcrrs arc inevlaWy optnctng. Ln establijhmg a notmaOve approach,

oclLniCf: ariangements for action have to be e^ijbli^hed between power

groups and indeed between lutions, which will continue to have distent
interests, values, norms and cultural iridirlons.

Auteu^srec^ltelijk beschermd maleriaal

 In 1972. the Glut) of Rome published The Limits to Grffwit). a book
Ihal aroused a wonowiOe conlroversy by highlighling the clangers
possd by the relentless pursuit o^ material gro^Th by the West. In
The First Globali^6votulion.t«o members oHhe Council oi\.heC\ub
otRome describe how material growth and over-consumption hai/e
now become a global problem. Environm^tal pollution, runaway
population growth, food and energy shortages, and geopolitical
upheavaJs make the future prospects oE the world sesm very bleak.

Whal we the emergence ot the post-

are witnessing today is
industrraf society, and the tumultous changes around us are
elements of this transitional phase Poised on the Dnnl< ola social
revolutic^n ushered in by modern inrormetion technology, the world
has two choices:

to continue pursuing material goals and selfish aims, and thereby

cause the stow but sure decline of all worid Byslems:

« to un»te and work towards building an improved Me tor future

generations.

This book offers an overall parspediva ot tha complex and

interactive global problems, and dlscus^e^ means oi solving them
compreriensivelVr

Cover design' Monica Gandhi

Foi sale in India, Neosl, SMuian, trm

Maldive Islands, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only.

Orient Longman

KirJG a SCHNEIDER THE FIRST GLOBAL REVOLUTION

OLBN0001ieCl32X " ,

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

162 • The First CtoM Revahttiait

Thcwholcofthlsbooi^Ls jcalf for world solldarttr. Lfvlng is we do during ibc

onset ol ihc fjisi gbbil revolution or i small piarti beset wuh conflicts which
wc Kcm beU'bcm on destroying, in jn ideological and poliQcaJ vdcuiun,
bctdwldi problems -of globdLdtmemions svhlch the bdlngnatton-sOCeurc
unable to solve, widi Immense po&sjbidtLcs foi the impiovemeiit oi the
hunun condlrion, Tlch ia knowledge but pooi fa wisdom, we soich for the
keys to survival and ^ustain^bilUy.
The only hope seems combtoed action laken In the light of 2
to lie In

cofupletc understanding of the Impending pctllj and the commtsukcp of

wlf-imerest of jil men ind women. We hiw stressed the tmportancf of
Individual bchavloui and values which constitute die ceJs of the body of
sQci-eTy, derrtmi^nrng iti funcuoning and values, A fundamet^l upsurge of
wisdom can probably only come through rhf inner development of the
Irtdlvldual. The great rejjgioni in their purest aspirations have attempted to

make ihH possible over die aga, with few outward signs of success.
Wc cannot, thdeforc, expect miracles and have to comtrucl a posiDon of
subiliEv. Thij can only be based o-n die i^orldwide cultivation of an

enUghtened and of human sodeQes. This, in

tniere&c In (he survival of the race
turn, can only be nude posi Ible by the uni vei^a] luidersQodmg ofrhe human
predlcamem, Its dangers and its promises.

hlarklnd may hate to chacw bietwwn ihe VittJi «xtr?rn« ali^mailves o^

^oininlnliiBBenocldPor learning to live hencttontiu a single bmily.

Arnold Toynbee

For the creillon of rhU ulldaTity, out ttology and our egoJsm can be
powerful jlHes. For most people. cbeJi egoism Is noE confined to the
individual lifespan, biic cxrcrbd^ ro thai of theli childteii and grandchildren
viith whose being they idenCiiy. It sfiould be possible therefore to sdlVtf,
selfishly If you will, 10 cceace circumstances whrch w[\\ make possible a

digrLfiedandtnilyhuman existence for future generations Such in effort will

ennil many macetla] sacrifices on the part of the prevent gcnejaOon, but it

should j[so bring abounding benefit; in the qualitatrve aspects oflife- If we are
to suaccd Id esiablLshing wocld solid^my as the suprcoic ethic toi suivlViJp
the fitsc step Is in atoustng im<lers'j[Kling^

Copy^i9hted material
Missing page
 filDLtOCRAPHY

A.[ ES EC lAssociaUon InKmaHonak dcs Eludlants en SctaK«

CmEiomiquef et ComnKTclalfs) Kffarln]nltniaUiini!Cieit^j{^. ¥,thi. AtESEC-
Canany. 1^1.
Boikin. [.'V Elmandira. M^ and Mslkiza. M.'V Ni UnDtel^nung. i^rgarxm
Piess. Oxford. WTO-
Brown, Ifslfr R, StfA rf Ctoi|c, Pnrgtr Publishers, New York, 1070.
Cdruxis, EUchcl, Sinir Sprxflp Hamllujn. LofKton. \96i.

Chcsiutt. Jon Claude, Tim M-jndt, Ecoriomlca, Paris- 19S7.

Dogin, Klatiel dnd K^aidj John D T^ Mftnpabi Em: A W«rU >f QmirCJUa,
.

Sigc. Newbury Pwk ICA). I5a&.

Forrester, jiy W/' linfumill Diiumia, MIT Press, Cambridge, (MA), 1Q6L
Forrester. |ay W , lli*fln D^hmI^^ MIT Presi. Cambrldptf (MA), lOrt.

Cabor, Dennis, et jI, Bfifond lt\r Agf sf Wslf, Pergarnon Press. Oxford. WS.'

Glesbert, Fianz Olivier, it PFfuiif«J, Siiull, Puis, IMO.

lEUlitui francats dcs relations Internationales. RAMSES [^sppt\!\ Annuel fAaniiia ur

If S|tl£w Etfiimiifiuf ki Slnil^}, ed.
I by Thkeiry de MantbrlilH Dunodn P3t\i.

1090.

King, Ak«ndci"\ TAr SUtr *f [fe PiflwJ. Pcigamon Prc», Oxford Ml, ,

Lesourne, |Kques", la S|dfliu Am DflUn, IXmod, Pitis. 1975.

Meadows, Dot>clld H., Mc^ows, Dennis L.**, Rinders, |orgcn |r, Behreils.
William W. Ill, Ttu Umiti it CrauUi, Universe Books, New York, 1P7?.'
Petxrei, Aurelio", Tlv Clioni AlvoJ, MdcMllldn, New York, 1Q79.

Pesrel, Eduard", Bnr'xc^rlvUiiulibGTwffi. Universe Books, New York. 19W

Schatf. Adam" and E-ricdrichs. Cuniher. MicntkajWii onl Stckl^. Pergamon
Press, Oxford. IMJ.'
Schneider, Bf rtrand", TJif BanfiwI RmjfuNdir. IT Publication, Londoi, IQSS.^
SchunucberrE.F,,Sni^hBrduiJ/irr F^imcmjnan/raipJrMd'Jerd, Blond ai^Brlggs,
London. W7*; Harper Collins, New York. 197J.
United Nations industilal Development Organisatbon/lnsiltuie of Ertetgy,
Rcpnl in WflfCfwp on Bumflw TfifnrflJ Pmc^Bf PrtTHtt^ Eur, Ing, Bijan LockCy
Cadogan Consultants, London. IP^r
University of Tokyo Gkibal Environ nvntal Study Ljboraiotf and
Mas^jchiu&ets InsDlulcofTcchnaTopyCcmcrfoi-T-ncrgy Policy Research.

^6]k^MtiA^\0(^\n2h I9W, Wj^fijrijWii, D.C)- Wood, Divld 0„ and

Kaya, Yokhl, ^eds.). M.I.T., Cambridge, IWI.
World Commission cm Environment and Development, Th BnrFidJknit Rfpriri,
OHrCmmwN Fulurf, 0>![wd UnlveRdty Press. Lortdon, M7.
'Tjfvi i4 rii aitf< (f !tMt "MrmJyr if [if Clufr ti Spiv

Aufeursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

 Index

AcrpmrftTiOH of Laus. set devf fopmart of .

wTrrromm
PoiluUon
Acddil i bjfis \ai. IdlET-

Adi Slunlurjchjryar 54 untuEhorisffi uln of. ll

nbta V lb Defence eipendicure

*grlcul(uri^ dcvcTDpTKnf In. » flifJ Tatun^iTf
dcbf Xrvlcing burden o(. JO Arms CKpoii. glo^l uplfkante of.

jution Qibn in, h 10.00

nrvolutions in, iO Arms industEv,

Aged, arc for tktc. lU kn developing counmes. It

and for foimol, ID

jgricuiiuFj] devfbpfrrml. 119 proble-ms of diurnumen, w

jnd toiJ CDaidluoiH. -U DtMtmjueiiB
pffffct of droiLghrs. W iBource consLimpUOT nj
incicase In Food producticpn. M niggndons lor irmi Ecductnn, Vlff
^hoFthll in Icod^JiFU 10, SO

use of fheriKj] ffcfjtoen, H A W^ff/Cia-ICffia 104

»jifE iviilibtlit^. ^. 40-1,

14 tht Cicci] Rrvokuon

AIDS (Acquiied Immuflv dctxioicj'
Syndromv), ^1

AIuIj. oil ipill bi, n

AlgcTlan rcvdudot^ In, BO
'ATTKTlcan dicim', ?nd of. 69

AmiK^y InLciEutKiiul, 66, Sahucuna, Swdsl^. l^B

Anccuiji vjlufi, lu Viluo Senm,?

ArgendiUr ktukbcfdum c^, 20 Seigei. Galon. K
Armjmena Shopal. pc^Eicidc kj)i \n. J}^ M
ipd pollncaJ powci. 2* BidflHHiJfi. people ol.lOJff

Copy^i9hted material
 ,

L66 t/jH^

Bloo. iradmg and Kidunrul, Cill«r TTunigFinFm oi, IQ

imp]]n.tiijns d(, II U Civil economy, conver^on lo. W fl
Bouwanj, dcvclopmcni oi. 6S C limine change , ^iiIhI, 4

flrjdv Pljrt. thf Club of fUnx, K7

ind drvetaping co^ntr^o^ M and f^rr proiect.viii

jipdn^s conulbijuan co, IQ and ceductjon tn armA; appnl

Ibi, M tf; declaraDoci i
loss k on.
and promdon of human r^htt, Ti *»;Fir«BcportiWJ)of,7-(:
Indctucdncii of, W gbtui local IrKcwaan, rok In, 1^ H
Lnduslrijl dcvf loprrifnl of. Vi. 4S local knluath'et Bi rural areu, lOT IE

mcciing in Hjnovei U^)- ^*'

pjrrKlpjimn in woild tcoEwmy, M mrrting LH Tjojnd^ ilQM|.l7

role in dcvclopmcnl .
|56

rtduOkm in dtbt bunltn of, 56 hAc in the moluuqur, W'7

Btilain, riKibiliudon dunng THr ?Jiiiiimci\\ oi Mtfildnd, ^
World Wjr II. 70 Coal
Bcown, ElJErijan. bi polluTlon cauxd by. 2^-6
Bcunddand Rfporf. dVr i* roervs of. a
Biukuia FuD. iO^ Cokl war. dxendoftbd9H'0. S^W
CotkcDve ethKs
imporurKC of. 152
udciri AppToacbs <Or 151-7
CollnDve nluD v mdii-rdual
vjIuq, 1^1 «J

Colli mbja,
plan lot ccologKil jobiliuitonj 9S
C/MAKA. Ddn Itaixii. 71
CcmrniinKWon and dkaloguCr 1^3
OnxU. II
Coirkmunlnn, cdlapKof. I. 60
Chad. 15
Compcntion cpcn.
CAoBflv". failure or dv. 60
3idvjnugri and limltiADoru, lO-Ll
Change, temance \a. Ulli
Conferences piuliEeution of, A5'A
ChcTm^yl. rtutlcar accidcni, JL M
CcpMumer ucietr, fwuK d, M
CFC'i rflecl on ozone Ijvct. ?H 5
Contemporary problems
ChlJe
global LJlsparilis. tl
dcmaiJty :otMed in, /
gjobal n^miif of, M
miliUFv coup [\9n). J
irudeqiuir inponir to, 117 ii
poiluve changes in. Ifi
Czechoslovakia
China
deiThicrac]r cHablnhcd in. 7
dmrmamcTir \n, Qt
Sovlei occupalion of- 7
large roervei of coal in, M wididrjwalof SDvlrEDDOpt. 00
pi^Hibt will crushed r M
Ervoluaan in, K)
$horug^ ol contumn goad&. 41 :
Chjpka movpmprl, ihcr I^B

Churrhkll, SliWJruion, r?

Copyrighted material
 -

Ifvkx • 167

Danzh, AhdUt ]U pioblcTiu rdaied to. 10. *0 f!

Debt lewurccj Er«d istd dicu itiC, W, *,

aitj dcvclopiiig cDuntim, Sa B iiiflBmKRi& for, S^l B
rclKf meiMra, ]1Q l\ Dbcord. ngm of, '9
US deb<3. M DupirlD«, globil, ti

Yi Indumijl wjstn
cHccts d, 36. VJ-i [togan, M . iiid SJOidi. \S>.. UK
ifae [Kfd (o lull, iff Coiiunbu DEOUghl^lOM), »
dcGjulLcChski. 12 Dtiigaidr
DcmooipliK thwfla {M ihr eOKDof, IG-l

Monh) 20 1.411 rllrniiutiDn of. II

Drmocracy cmf rgcnce of, W

ChuichilJ) cL>Trimciii dbouir T3 moEuy Jjjndcung ict. II

mcngths jEid limiQuaru of , ^1 Dukt of Edinburgh, Prince Pluiip, x

dhc pfcfcrrcd idcolij^, 65
Dcvtlopinj touniTi«
and drbr. ^6 ft

binh jnd dcarfi corrtrol m, 65*

d^v^lopmcni and povcnjj 5J-*
KonnriT of , ^H
cncigr prospcctj, 9T fF

pamcipnioo in rhc woild ceo Eaith. Tk,

research on IQ rulunt lynora, IM*?
Ddvkipmmi Ealem Europe. P
ind povfily. ^ 9p IDL'2 MnvttBQfl 10 i nuii^ Konomj of, K) tl.

mub. BO, 101 fl COIF

nml Ebi new mu^ta in. icn I! coJhpKof CnriTTiJEiiiT nrgintn. L.b^
rcvlsm of urxcgbn in devek<ping problcnuof nononikd-aiigr, ?9,6l
counnlcs. 10? i
shiXQge ol comumer goodi LnrQl-2
[ok oJ ihc Club of Rome, Jll fF

roie of govrrnnicncs and Inter EionDmn change, lO ff. 6* '0

luOocul IntdniOcm, IDO (f
Licnimoiv
Ecc^iomK polK}'. oE^ 4
Kicncc ji>d tcchnolofy for. LHl
Ecaivim^
p miderdf vciopmoM, 101 fF
devcbpDig CDunDlei, of.fd ff
Deiwfopmeni ^licics.
CHtcm Europe. d(, 6S
M n>sjinabk( ^ opexnK (^rowih, Europejn Communiry, of, 55-6

miliidiv and civil, BQ

Imikqiucleiof. 102 FF
SovLFl Union, oj. 6^ ff

DlQcrtnr vaLtKS. cocnAcntc of, 1^^ Si

USA. of. Vff
Dminumcnt world, intern jcionji rTrlsman^ement
inirrcdijic f fE«ia ol, 9?

In USSR jnd Chuu, Ql EgoUm, giowih oE, 147 ff

ncgotaUom, <>•
10 Elntronkt, tmpxtof. V-t

Auteursrec Intel i|k beschermd materiaal

 J

16S •l«dai

Ehot. T5., D7
ElKc ' populu ThlHlglH. 151 FrrnllKii. usrof, >« 40

Empb)Tncni, pfohknB of- (^ ff Fli^ globiL e£vq|i»op. die.

EwTgy jjrm of. 1*
ikemitiiT uuica of, ^7, n, »d die human jiubcsc, SI 2

UCduntuig. OS Q dw chill* nfi? flf, lU

COnscrvaHon mcjsiirci, ?1 ff ETiTgfijId. Edwird, vi

frcwn nuckear tldon. W Food Sccuriiy, w Clotjl food

from niiclfai fmion. V &fcuriEy

jn human UanucDccu, 9Jl Foi«ls, dftuuction of.

pioblcmi d1 ivj^bbll^. W ur [kfornuuon. abi ?oliuCHJn

lordtrof JucI jncuialaicji, JA Foncsln, jif' vUl^S

juggnuons for conicrvaODn, CQlf Rincflcr'i. Fkra Lavv, ao
FdssH fLifk
ErvJronrncnl tomervaOon of, IT

palljOon of. 7) B, 9 polluOon caio^ by bumLng of, JS

^iiggcsoons fix pccucoKm d, 99 101 Foundation lor liiEcrnauoiLdl Trying

Envjronmcnul «0[ioni Its. 100 lFtT),*7
Equal rlgha, m Funcc. TTobilJzaiioa d. TO

iiHBBty For. 15 < Fundjmenulum

pcimjncTil V Currsil. ISO ducordanc ugiu of, 79
Ethiopia, politiul duf^ m. 6^ rlKQi, 15? SI
Euiopc FtwI. vardiy ol, ?6

and dluiiTumdiE, QQ
Eunonjlism oJ dhnk mlnorlbei,
IS LD

turopean ComiminiTy
ooDiplcda) of ncmonuc uiui/- U
C^nomy o(. 5i-&

cAcci oJ polmcjl cKangfi on, ^

GABOff. DEV4HE, Jt- 14&
fbrmjDon oE, 5^
CandkU.K (M^hjinijl. 71
Genetic cnginccnng, il
leducuon m COr crraisuni, 06 i\
Grrnuny
£«l and West rctJi^KaUoT. I. \1.
Europcm Moncuiy Untm, SS 6

modcrniuuon dI Ejsi Ccnn.~n)i, 2Q

rpdiicdon of BilOih tioop» In. 00

Ginben, Frjnr Ohicr. 4
Gknm, IS

Global food iccuriEy. U ff

GlotHJ loul mlerKOon. Iff Club of
FuLKLAEJa Wai, Tnf , IQ

Family Ilk. 71. ]^ Glob J prablenu

I

Favclas. pmpk of ihc. 101 H* nwlFonmental pollution. 11 ff

Copyrighted material
 '

/Mbr • 169

gtrvetnance. 114 H KAVa, Vaoav, ?, 71

soOay. dgn of ducord tn. '4 Hcid* of Scjie and Min*flcf».

Hong Kong, dcvclopmeni i^r 19- *^

aaa of, 25-6 HiieiliijcdjccJlJ, pre Colofntriar]

ImpltaiUni of, KH teachli«. 1»

pfcvcnDvc mcsiunH *6 Humjn acuvny, gmwdi of. fl ff

Cotbocbcv. MtfchiU. 01 Humjn rrj.[jiK, 76 If. 11^

Gdvcnuna. 114 )0 thjlleiige, the, 8^ *

con^iliy of faclora rdacing id, 74. gLobdl sympEomi c^, 76 ft

11£ 17 impaa orr iht Eaintly, 767

CQiLfronucjon v^r^u^ conscnHA» faoblcmi oE [he ^ouih, 75-7
lH-3* Human ughu
jriiJ Amnaiy Tnif rruQocial . «^ h

iJetiiiiliDn of. [H'lS limnaoom Jrtd lucEigths of dx

deader ju Ecu. I?» ?9 [novcmcm foi, '1

iiiip«ijiii?nEi 10. 74 rr pcnrutiem vdna. 150

iiKCmrrcjiCs of, 71 Hungary, 00
(nlcniidoiul dimensions of. IJ5 H Hygiene and lankabon.
ks[iei And pohcjn, £12 fl, 1JJ ff improv^rmfni In. 16

pujblrrTH al, 114-16 prablcms in iluiTLS. 16 1'

Government ^]
and ihc rrojkci Ebfccs, IM jt

proccdurca, 113 tl

role Jn runl drv^bpfncnl. 10? fT

Govemon
qmlmei sought in, Ui 19

i^ktCicm nf. 129

'Cri^i Divide-, the. vUff
I, fridqje Vrr 01
'Green pjiTiea', If
iDdefciedncq, uDrbt
Gi«nhoij«cEfca<dk,
lodb
CJuiffof. '5 *. ^7
aateoL ann in. ?* fF
cFfction *ericul[urc. 'o
Grm Revolution In, LA 19, 41
f Bra on cliniJic jnd X3 \cveV II
Indikscnal developnwnt of. 19, *>,
pfcvoitivt muiurs. 16
6^, 101
Green Revol jub^. che,
NamuiJj pcolecc b), 10)
jnlndla, U14, U popuknan gtowdi
proWeim erf
Jn Moko, TA
II, S)
need foiwaer and (emluen, 19,
IndlYiduib
GrowiJi of human acQvliy, >1 ff
and [he human miljlse 7S ,
ft
Gutf War, 1 fF, »
Impact of cuncni changes on, IIJ
Implicjtioia of, 1^ J9
Indlvidjj] vjluoKollcaJvf vjlua.WJ
LndoTKWi, dfvclopmeni oE. i9

Indunli] Revfriubon, the.

Copyrighted material
 1

170 • InOa

and aivttonmciiof ponutton. ?2

and tcchnoiogkal devtlcppmtnc, M King. Mamn Luther, 7]
frtduflnal w«a, difponl oi, ^^
IrtdufDUllzKinaUon IConn, 7t
d(ET»gnpbc change in, ?0-l Kuw^l, ItkVBHBJ cf, 3 B, 64
MChipCCT2
cciDnDRik ^ovnh, wn
uicof unuincnTs, 10
[ndtuof nuxiem irmdi In, M
Inforaul «ttOl, mfl
InbnniDOD
and rlMjdcm tcchnolcjy' M
JTPpjCl on cbidrcn jnd ihc
Lailn America
youih, 77 E(
jgncukiinl dfVf iDpmtni. 1?
JCdcty. 1. 41 ff
dcbfburdrn 70. 1« 7
InnovaEion in bnguagcr. Jiulyxta.
iclaDoruhip wtch Spahi. 1?
and jpprchKh. iCO
Inhnologtcal luckwaidiKb. 13
In^Tutr for Rfsourcc M^nigf ment, J5
InCfT^cion
Lawof dKScuC(mfernHx,64
XjOitODg. Ebc challenge oE. tH
globdl local, IM^7
Leioumc, [nqun. SS
bcal indrvidEul. 1^7 -5t
inmmatlonjl insdiLiiiDni jnd curj]
mmigcmcni, 110 B
InKCnjtiorul Instllurc lev Appljrd
Sysicms Analym ^IJASA], n
|D[f mjiionil Putnwship IrwiiDvc
IIPIJ.W
Iraq. Invukm of Kuwait. I IT. M
Maaihai, Wahcaii, IM
ZhiaAa, dx. 10

Malalv. Thcprnmi, 71^

dfvfloprnciir of. JO

pjEDnpjUQn IT wcild economy. »

JjVAH MandfU.Kclion. 71

jWJUiKc ic dcbicn naUoni, ) Market economy, 10 11, 1J4 2^

ievrJopmcnt af. &S in Eait Europr aihd Soviet Unkm. »

Morwm)' of, M-5 ind gourmmcnt irguLatlonSr 1?^ 2^

iDuncBl acHvity. 10 and luaiainablc drvddpmsil. H-^

llmlDikin] of, 11

MnveL Andrew. 71
MiB TDedta. role of. 14] IT

Mjx t^ccf. Mfflfred.40

Mead, Maigain, ib-

Copyrighted material
 ItuUx « 171

Medudunla, V Non Pnslifnmton Treaty IWPT), 9^

M^Kil Kiencn, bmcfKi of Notih. the,

idvUKn m, tfiit aid pcEornuncCp tf

Mexico dftiniDon of. 19-20

debt burdrn oC, ^A, dcmogEdphK change, 20-1,41 J

GiMn R^voluDon \n. IS resource CQiLiJinpuon in, 1^

industiul and rtonomit deve- i^hnalogicij] misoncc lo

lopmf nT, *A. M thf South, II

pjniLiipdtiLjn m ulhIlI cfDoOiAy. ^'^ Nuclc:^ dabuCLon. tk«« of. 4,0

fcductuci In ddn bunkn, M Nudor ovtgf, futujc o^, ^'

MnKo City, populjtMjn of, 16 NTcrere, luBiu, l« ff

MLcioclmnxila 1. lit AS Q
and (Ticigy conxrvjUon. W Ff

Mtddlc EjsI. ihc.

Gull Wji III. M 03

MigiJtiotD, brgescjk. 42-1

Mlhory ODnomy. I>

OilCusq
Mlnorldes- jw^cning of, LS 6
InipKiondcvckipingcoLiniTia. B
MalecLiJjr biology, I. 1%
irpcimnionj tm world etongniy, S

US policy modi-EKitlons. 7 }

Naidn
dedikxim^iingpfacfQm. 16
Fau-aoi. Jan. 7
tntcEpCAdf iKC d mUon. LI IT, '9
PiEctitj. jnd prfseni crisii '0 IT
N-jUJondli^m
Fi[|», i^udfru tevoU (n< 71
and jwakoiingof mirKiriim, li (f
FaithiiV'aiJihy. Mrs , ion IndU), 71
dllTcr^ni: jspccn of, 79 ff
PCKC. icsfpcT fof. 1*0
Nilure. rerpcct for. \M Pcctci, AjicJIO, rtl
NazU, rruibjjrariihi jgjinn. 70
Neih plaguf?. ihc, JfrJ
Potcl, hSnjoA. «. -w
NaCi Ol Sou^h tffi ANi. 19. «^. LCU
Poland, hunun ngha in. 71
NongcMcmmoital activity, mcme Polices. hjnuniLfi in, 125

pDlliiiiDn
Non-^vcrnmcncal oi^jnlzadan^,
oivUDnmciLtjl dmncn, Jl i

macro polliiiHv, l^^

and devclnpncnt, KP ff
mcjHirn for coitiol of. J2
imporian^-e of, 14. Mf , 151 ff
rowjid) an environment Bsr
pfuLfcratloDof. IStff
iuivlnJ.»4lf

Copyrighted material
174 • Index

Wj-iGBA, Lbch.TI
Wan. IdcjI, 9 10

Water dispum, U-9

Wdlircsuic, effect! of, W
Wcslcm CDunUJCi
Eiuikcl ccotiomy and reducuon

poslDon of women to. 06 J

Women
Improved &QCUS of, 66-7

role Jn iodal devdopnwnl, «7

World die

DuundEu^meni. 115
nuclear chreai, <>

icpcttij»iQn» oE Qil ami, i

World [kj|[h Or^niainn I WHO), M
World Solidarity

A al\ far. Jb7

iEfflmjtion^ oL la chapter 4

rebird) of, 7i)

ao. M

YCUTH,
fok In ranbig rcvDlunoittp K

dcvelopmenl of. ^

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd materiaal

 In 1972. the Glut) of Rome published The Limits to Grffwit). a book
Ihal aroused a wonowiOe conlroversy by highlighling the clangers
possd by the relentless pursuit o^ material gro^Th by the West. In
The First Globali^6votulion.t«o members oHhe Council oi\.heC\ub
otRome describe how material growth and over-consumption hai/e
now become a global problem. Environm^tal pollution, runaway
population growth, food and energy shortages, and geopolitical
upheavaJs make the future prospects oE the world sesm very bleak.

Whal we the emergence ot the post-

are witnessing today is
industrraf society, and the tumultous changes around us are
elements of this transitional phase Poised on the Dnnl< ola social
revolutic^n ushered in by modern inrormetion technology, the world
has two choices:

to continue pursuing material goals and selfish aims, and thereby

cause the stow but sure decline of all worid Byslems:

« to un»te and work towards building an improved Me tor future

generations.

This book offers an overall parspediva ot tha complex and

interactive global problems, and dlscus^e^ means oi solving them
compreriensivelVr

Cover design' Monica Gandhi

Foi sale in India, Neosl, SMuian, trm

Maldive Islands, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only.

Orient Longman

KirJG a SCHNEIDER THE FIRST GLOBAL REVOLUTION

OLBN0001ieCl32X " ,

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal