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Exercise1 Basic Probability

This document contains 11 exercises involving probability concepts and calculations related to stochastic hydrology. The exercises cover topics like probability distributions, conditional probability, binomial and normal distributions. For example, exercise 1 involves calculating probabilities of union and intersection of events from a Venn diagram. Exercise 2 calculates probabilities of system failure given electrical load conditions. Exercise 3 involves working with a probability mass function and expected value.

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Mohamed
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132 views

Exercise1 Basic Probability

This document contains 11 exercises involving probability concepts and calculations related to stochastic hydrology. The exercises cover topics like probability distributions, conditional probability, binomial and normal distributions. For example, exercise 1 involves calculating probabilities of union and intersection of events from a Venn diagram. Exercise 2 calculates probabilities of system failure given electrical load conditions. Exercise 3 involves working with a probability mass function and expected value.

Uploaded by

Mohamed
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Stochastic Hydrology

Exercise 1: Basic Probability and Probability Distributions


1. Three events A, B, and C have the following properties:

P (A ) = 0.5 , P (B ) = 0.3 , P (C ) = 0.15 ,


P (A B ) = 0.15 , P (C | A ) = 0.2 , P (B C ) = 0.0
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)
v)
vi)
vii)

Draw a Venn diagram to represent these events.


Calculate P (A B ) , P (A C ) , P (B C ) , and P (A B C ) .
Derive an expression for P (A B C ) and check your answer in (i) above.
Find P (A B C ) if P (B C ) = 0.1 and P (A B C ) = 0.05 . Verify your answer.
Calculate P (A B ') , P (A ' C ) , and P (B ' C ')
Calculate P (A | B ) , P (A | C ) , and P (B | C ) .
Find a pair of mutually exclusive events and another pair of independent events.

2. The electrical load in a city can be low (event L), moderate (event M) or high (event H), with
known probabilities P(L) = 0.10, P(M) = 5 P(H). Failure of the system (event F) can only occur
if a certain transformer fails to function. From past experience the following conditional
probabilities are known: P(F | L) = 0.01, P(F | M) = 0.05 and P(F | H) = 0.30.
i)
ii)
iii)

What is the probability of a system failure P(F)?


If a failure has occurred, what is the probability that the load was high?
Calculate the probability of medium or low load given that a failure has occurred.

3. The number of rainy days per year for a certain city has the following distribution function
No. of days (D)
F(D)
i)
ii)
iii)

0
0.40

1
0.60

2
0.75

3
0.88

4
0.88

5
0.95

6
1.00

Sketch the distribution function and the probability mass function for this variable.
Find the expected value and standard deviation for this random variable.
Find the probability of having more than 3 accidents per year given that the year has not
been accident free.

4. The distribution of flow (Q) in a pipe network is given in the opposite figure. Find the following:
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)

P(10 < Q < 45)


P(Q > 45 | Q > 30)
The mean of Q.
The standard deviation of Q.

f (Q)

60

5. A random variable has the following probability density function

f x (x ) = a x 2 0 x 10
i)
ii)
iii)

Find P (x > 5) , P (2 < x < 4) , P (X < 2 | X < 4)


Find the distribution function of x.
Find E(x) and Var(x).

6. A water pumping station has 6 pumps. The probability that any pump is defective equals 10%.
Calculate the probability of a successful operation that needs 4 working pumps all the time.
7. For a successful wastewater treatment process 7 blowers are needed. The probability that any
blower is defective equals 0.05. How many blowers are needed in the site to have a probability
of successful operation equals 99%?
8. In a factory of steel bars, the probability that a steel bar has strength less than the standards is 5%.
The production of the factory is in the form of groups having 20 steel bars each. Calculate the
probability that a given group has:
a) All bars having actual strength equal to the standard strength
b) At least on bar not following the standards
c) Exactly 2 bars not following the standards
9. The flow rate on a one-way bridge is 540 cars/hour. What is the probability for a person to cross
the bridge in 8 seconds? What is the probability of crossing to the other side and then crossing
back in 12 seconds?
10. In a city, the fuel consumption rate for different types of cars may be classified into three groups
with the following characteristics:
Group
I
Fuel consumption rate (km/lit) <8
Probability of fuel consumption 0.4

II
III
8-10 10
0.4 0.2

If a sample of 12 cars is selected, what is the probability that the sample has 4 cars from group
I, 6 cars from group II, and 2 cars from group III?
11. A bag contains 24 meteorological devices, of which 12 are defective. Let X equal the number of
defective devices in a sample of five devices selected at random and without replacement from
the bag. Find
a) P (X = 2)
b) P (X 2)
c) = E (x) and 2 = var (X)

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