International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues

Vol. 3, No. 1, 2013, pp.27-41

ISSN: 2146-4138
www.econjournals.com

Turkish Banking Sectors Profitability Factors

Songl KAKLL ACARAVCI
Mustafa Kemal University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences,
Antakya-Hatay, Turkey. E-mail: [email protected]

Ahmet Erturul ALIM

Ahmet alm Ya plik Dokuma San. Tic. Ltd. ti.,

Reyhanl-Hatay, Turkey. E-mail: [email protected] KE

ABSTRACT: The profitability of banking sector is the most important instrument of financial system
for the future of the economy. The objective of this study is to determine by using Johansen and
Juselius cointegration test approach of the bank specific and macroeconomic factors that affect the
profitability of commercial banks in Turkish banking sector. In study, the data are collected from the
three biggest state-owned, privately-owned and foreign banks. The sample period spans from 1998 to
2011. In the study, return of asset, return of equity and net interest margin were used as proxy for
profitability of banks. The bank specific determinants, which were thought to have effects on
profitability are total credits/total assets, total deposits/total assets, total liquid assets/total assets, total
wage and commission incomes/ total assets, total wage and commission expenses/total assets, the
logarithm of total assets and total equity/total assets. The macroeconomic determinants of study are
real gross domestic product, inflation rate, real exchange rate and real interest rate. Empirical findings
suggest that the bank specific determinants have been more effect than macroeconomic factors on
profitability of the banks. The reel gross domestic product and real exchange rate have been effective
on the profitability. In addition, the 2001 economic crisis has a negative effect on all Turkish Banking
sector.
Keywords: Profitability of banking; banking performance; deposit banks; the net interest margin; time
series analysis.
JEL Classifications: G21; M20

1. Introduction
The commercial banks are important financial institutions in the financial system and the
economy. They accept demand deposits and make loans and provide other services for the public.
These banks make a profit by intermediating between depositors (savers) and borrowers (investors).
As financial intermediaries, banks play a crucial role in the operation of most economies. Banks
require a good management team to enable them to segregate between different level of liquidity,
maturity, and risk preferences. As such, the commercial banks must be able to evaluate a borrowers
creditworthiness and monitor performance if they are to stay in profit (Ilhomovich, 2009).
The importance of bank profitability can be appraised at the micro and macro levels of the
economy. At the micro level, profit is the essential prerequisite of a competitive banking institution
and the cheapest source of funds. The basic aim of a banks management is to achieve a profit, as the
essential requirement for conducting any business. At the macro level, a profitable banking sector is
better able to withstand negative shocks and contribute to the stability of the financial system. The
importance of bank profitability at both the micro and macro levels has made researchers, academics,
bank managements and bank regulatory authorities to develop considerable interest on the factors that
determine bank profitability (Aburime, 2008).

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International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2013, pp.27-41
Banking sectors financial soundness indicators are analyzed under four main titles which are
banking activities, capital adequacy, asset quality, income-expenses and profitability. The banking
sectors profitability potential will probably contribute to encouragement of investors, strengthening of
the economic motion and the increase of global orientation to the sector. When the income-expenses
and profitability ratios of the Turkish banking sector are analyzed, it is seen that the sectors
profitability is in a sufficient level to maintain activities but the assets income-creating ratios and
profitability ratios are in a general decreasing tendency since 2008. Income increasing rates fell behind
the increasing rates in the related assets, so the income-creating levels of assets seem to be reduced.
Especially the net interest margin reflecting the net interest incomes to average assets ratio is
decreasing. However, the sectors interest incomes to interest expenses coverage ratio is still high. As
a matter of fact, interest incomes are 1.8 times bigger than interest expenses. Non-interest incomes to
non-interest expenses ratio is under 100% which may be considered as a negative fact. The sectors
non-interest incomes/non-interest expenses ratio is 63.1%, which is considered as a factor affecting the
profitability negatively and it is deemed necessary to equilibrate the non-interest income-non-interest
expense position. Within this framework, it is important to raise the operational productiveness and
to give priority to policies regarding strategic collaboration. In the environment of recessed interest
margins and ongoing competition, distribution channels shall be developed and customer-focused
point of view shall be improved to sustain profitability (Financial Markets Report, 2011).
The aim of this study is to examine the bank specific and macroeconomic determinants of the
banks profitability in Turkey over the time period from 1998 to 2011. This paper is structured as
follows: Section 2 includes the banking system in Turkey. Section 3 reviews the previous studies on
profitability of banks and summaries the main determinants and relevant findings. Section 4 describes
research
methodology, variables
and data. Section 5 presents the empirical results of analyses.
Conclusions are offered in the final section.
2. The Banking System in Turkey
The number of banks operating in Turkey was 48 at the end of March 2012 with 31 in deposit
banks group and 13 in non-deposit banks group, while there were also 4 participation banks (Table 1).
Among deposit banks, there were 3 state-owned banks, 11 privately-owned banks and 16 foreign
banks (TBB, 2012).
Table 1. Number of Banks and Branches in the System *
March 2011
Banks
Branches
31
9,539
3
2,793
11
4,896
1
1
16
1,849
13
42

December 2011
Banks
Branches
31
9,792
3
2,909
11
4,944
1
1
16
1,938
13
42

March 2012
Banks
Branches
31
9,844
3
2,936
11
4,969
1
1
16
1,938
13
42

Deposit banks
State-owned banks
Privately-owned banks
Banks in the Fund**
Foreign banks
Development and
investment banks
Total
44
9,581
44
9,834
44
* Branches in foreign countries and Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus are included.
** Banks under the Deposit Insurance Fund
Source: The Banks Association of Turkey, 2012,
http://www.tbb.org.tr/eng/Banka_ve_Sektor_Bilgileri/Tum_Raporlar.aspx

9,886

The total number of branches in the deposit banks and development and investment banks
increased by 305 to 9,886 at the end of March 2012 as compared to March 2011 and by 52 as
compared to December 2011 (Table 2).
The number of branches increased by 27 in state-owned deposit banks and 25 in privatelyowned deposit banks. The number of branches per bank was 318 in deposit banks. The number was
979 in state-owned deposit banks, 452 in privately-owned deposit banks and 121 in foreign banks. The
average number of employees was 5,697 in deposit banks, 16,731 in state-owned banks, 8,115 in
privately-owned banks and 2,307 in foreign banks.
28

Turkish Banking Sectors Profitability Factors

Table 2. Number of Employees and Branches (Annual)

3. Literature Review
A large number of empirical studies covered developed economies have been conducted about
factors influencing bank profitability or determinants of bank profitability. However, there is much
less studies covered emerging economies (Al-Tamimi, 2010).
The determinants of banks profitability are usually assorted into internal and external factors.
These studies specify return on asset (ROA), return on equity (ROE), return on capital employed
(ROCE) and net interest margin (NIM) as the dependent variables and considering the internal and
external factors as independent variables (Gul et al., 2011).
In most studies, variables such as the level of liquidity, provisioning policy, capital
adequacy, bank size, risk and overhead costs are used as internal determinants of banking
profitability. On the other hand, the external determinants, both industry-related and macroeconomic,
are variables that reflect the economic and legal environment where the credit institution operates.
The following is a summary of the findings of some of these studies:
Mamatzakis and Remoundos (2003) examine the determinants of the performance of Greek
commercial banks over the last decade. They measure the profitability of the commercial banks using
the ratios return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). Their results provide weak evidence of
the phenomenon of persistence in profitability. They report that the deregulation of the market in the
last decade and the process of European integration with the introduction of the Euro have enhanced
the competitiveness of the banking sector. On the strong side of the evidence, the variables related to
management decisions are found to assert a major impact on the profitability of Greek commercial
banks.
Athanasoglou et al. (2006) examine the profitability behaviour of bank-specific, industryrelated and macroeconomic determinants, using an unbalanced panel dataset of South Eastern
European (SEE) credit institutions over the period 1998-2002. The estimation results indicate that,
with the exception of liquidity, all bank-specific determinants significantly affect bank profitability in
the anticipated way. The macroeconomic environment has a direct impact on the aggregate
performance of the industry. Concentration is positively correlated with bank profitability. With
respect to the macroeconomic variables, inflation has a strong effect on profitability, while bank
profits are not significantly affected by real GDP per capita fluctuations, probably owing to the small
sample period. However, as financial systems develop and the reform process ends, both the current
and future rates of economic growth are likely to have an enhanced impact on bank profitability.
Beckmann (2007) analyses structural and cyclical determinants of banking profitability in 16
Western European countries. The data set comprises aggregate annual country data and banking group
data over the period 1979-2003. The estimation results show that financial structure matters,
particularly through the beneficial effect of the capital market orientation in the respective national
financial system. Furthermore, higher diversification regarding banks income sources shows a
positive effect. The industry concentration of national banking systems, though, does not significantly

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International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2013, pp.27-41
affect aggregate profitability. Business cycle effects, in particular lagged GDP growth, display a
substantial procyclical impact on bank profits.
Athanasoglou et al. (2008) examine the effect of bank-specific, industry-specific and
macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability, using an empirical framework that incorporates the
traditional Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) hypothesis. They apply a GMM technique to a panel
of Greek banks that covers the period 1985-2001. The estimation results show that profitability
persists to a moderate extent, indicating that departures from perfectly competitive market structures
may not be that large. All bank-specific determinants, with the exception of size, affect bank
profitability significantly in the anticipated way. However, no evidence is found in support of the SCP
hypothesis. Finally, the business cycle has a positive, albeit asymmetric effect on bank profitability,
being significant only in the upper phase of the cycle.
Flamini et al. (2009) use a sample of 389 banks in 41 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries to
study the determinants of bank profitability. They find that apart from credit risk, higher returns on
assets are associated with larger bank size, activity diversification, and private ownership. Bank
returns are affected by macroeconomic variables.
Ilhomovich (2009) analyses the performance of domestic and foreign banks operating in
Malaysia for the period of 5 years, from 2004 to 2008. He found that foreign banks have strong
capital, but the statistics show that domestic banks more profitable. However, existing foreign banks
are affecting financial services quality in Malaysia, because all banks offer better and low cost banking
services for customer during strong competition.
Krakah and Ameyaw (2010) examine the determinants of the profitability of commercial
banks in Ghana. Results from the study reveal that the performance of the Banks has been highly
volatile with the banks recoding negative profits during some periods within the two decade under
study. The study also revealed that non-interest income, non-interest expense, bank's capital strength,
natural log of total assets, growth of money supply, and annual rate of inflation are significant key
drivers of banks profitability in Ghana. However, the size of the Ghanaian economy and loan loss
provision or provisions for bad debt did not have any significant impact on the banks profitability.
Al-Tamimi (2010) investigates some influential factors in UAEs Islamic and conventional
national banks during the period 1996-2008. The UAE Islamic banks have a small market share,
though there is an increasing demand on their services. This might give a motivation to examine the
influencing factors on the performance of these banks compared with conventional banks. ROE and
ROA are used as dependent variables. The internal and external factors are considered as independent
variables including: GDP per capita, size, financial development indicator, liquidity, concentration,
cost and number of branches. The results indicate that liquidity and concentration were the most
significant determinants of conventional national banks performance. On the other hand, cost and
number of branches were the most significant determinants of Islamic banks performance.
Rasiah (2010) represents a theoretical review of the profitability of commercial banks. The
profitability determinants are basically divided into two main categories, namely the internal
determinants and the external determinants. The internal variables included in this study are asset
portfolio mix, total expenses, liability composition, and liquidity ratio and capital structure. The
external determinants are taken as competition, regulation, inflation, market share, market growth,
firm size and interest rate. The internal variables alone are adequate in explaining the profitability of
the commercial banks in Malaysia and Singapore. On the other hand, the external variables are also
relevant and hence should be included in the profitability models.
Scott and Arias (2011) suggest that it is possible to discern relevant indicators of profitability
for the banking industry today. The purpose of this study is to develop an appropriate econometric
model whereby the primary determinants of profitability of the top five bank holding companies in the
United States could be examined and understood. This study shows that profitability determinants for
the banking industry include positive relationship between the return of equity and capital to asset
ratio as well as the annual percentage changes in the external per capita income. The internal factor of
size as measured by an organizations total assets has on its ability to compete more effectively, even
in times of economic downturns.
Davydenko (2011) examines the determinants of bank profitability in Ukraine. It relates bank
specific, industry specific and macroeconomic indicators to the overall profitability of Ukrainian
banks. The study uses a panel of individual banks financial statements from 2005 to 2009. According
30

Turkish Banking Sectors Profitability Factors

to the empirical results, Ukrainian banks suffer from low quality of loans and do not manage to extract
considerable profits from the growing volume of deposits. This study finds evidence for the difference
in profitability patterns of banks with foreign capital versus exclusively domestically owned banks.
Gul et al. (2011) examine the relationship between bank specific and macroeconomic
characteristics over bank profitability by using data of top fifteen Pakistani commercial banks
over the period 2005-2009. They investigates the impact of assets, loans, equity, deposits, economic
growth, inflation and market capitalization on major profitability indicators i.e., return on asset, return
on equity, return on capital employed and net interest margin separately. The empirical results have
found strong evidence that both internal and external factors have a strong influence on the
profitability.
Shaher et al. (2011) evaluate the major factors that affect the commercial banks performance
in the Middle East region. The results revealed that the first factor (banks characteristics) is
considered the most important factor to banks performance. On the contrary, the sixth factor (other
factors) is considered the least important factor that influences commercial banks performance in the
Middle East region. The results suggest that commercial banks in Middle East region should
concentrate on the six factors, mainly variables in the first factor, in order to improve their
performance and compete efficiently with global commercial banks.
In addition, other empirical studies were made by Smirlock (1985), Miller and Noulas (1997),
Tregenna (2009) for USD; Saunders and Schumacher (2000) for USD and the European Union; Jiang
et al. (2003) for Hong Kong; Jeon and Miller (2004) for South Korea; Bodla and Verma (2006),
Kalluru and Bhat (2008) for India; Sufian and Chong (2008) for Philippines; Vong and Chan (2009)
for Macao; Sufian (2009) for Malaysia; Sufian and Habibullah (2009) for Bangladesh; Sufian (2009)
for China.
Teker et al. (2011) measure financial performances of commercial banks of Turkey in the
period of 2003 and 2010. The study covers 13 commercial banks of Turkey listed in Istanbul Stock
Exchange. All banks for each year are ranked by employing the proposed indexing model. Moreover,
the results of proposed performance measurement system are compared to annual net income and ROE
of banks. Inclusion of nonfinancial factors such as higher customer satisfaction, effective
management and leadership, using more advanced technology in banking operations etc. makes
valuable contributions to the measurement of overall performance of banks rather than limiting the
measurement by financials only.
Alper and Anbar (2011) examine the bank specific and macroeconomic determinants of the
banks profitability in Turkey over the time period from 2002 to 2010. The results show that asset size
and non-interest income have a positive and significant effect on bank profitability. However, size of
credit portfolio and loans under follow-up have a negative and significant impact on bank profitability.
With regard to macroeconomic variables, only the real interest rate affects the performance of banks
positively. These results suggest that banks can improve their performance of banks positively.


Other empirical studies for Turkey were made by Ozkul (2001), Kaya (2002), Kaya and
Dogan (2005), Dinc (2006), Tunay and Silpagar (2006a), Tunay and Silpagar (2006b), Atasoy (2007),
Serbetli (2008), Yildirim (2008), Arslan and Yaprakli (2008), Sayilgan and Yildirim (2009), Bumin
(2009), Demirhan (2010), Alp et al. (2010).
4. Data, Methodology and Model
4.1. Data
In this study, three different models are used to determine factors that affect the profitability of
commercial banks in Turkish banking sector. The data are collected from the three biggest stateowned, privately-owned and foreign banks. The sample period spans from 1998 to 2011. Annual
balance sheet, income statement and macroeconomic data are gathered from the Banks Association of
Turkey (BAT), the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT),
Public Disclosure Platform (PDP), OECD and IFS.
The state-owned bank is defined as Bank 1. The privately-owned bank is defined as Bank
2. The foreign bank is defined as Bank 3. The dependent and explanatory variables are explained in
Table 3.

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International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2013, pp.27-41
Table 3. The Dependent and Explanatory Variables
Notation
ROA
ROE
NIM

The Dependent Variables

Return on Assets


Return on Equity

Net Interest Margin
The Bank-Specific Explanatory Variables
LOAN
Asset Quality

DEPOS
Deposit
LQD
Liquidity

FCI
Income Structure

FCE
Expenditure Structure
CA
Capital Adequacy

LOGA
Asset Size

The Macroeconomic Explanatory Variables
GDP
Economic Activity
RER
Exchange rate (50% $ + 50% )
P
Inflation
R
Interest Rate

Source: ISE, PDP, BAT, CBRT, OECD, IFS

Measure

Net Income / Total Assets

Net Income / Total Equity
Net Interest Income / Total Assets
Total Loans / Total Assets
Total Deposits / Total
Assets

Liquid Assets / Total Assets
Fees and Commission Incomes/Total Assets
Fees and Commission Expenses/Total Assets
Equity / Total Assets
Natural Logarithm of Total Assets
Real Gross Domestic Product (2005=100)
Real Exchange Rate (2005=100)
Annual Inflation Rate (Consumer Price Index)
Real Interest Rate

In the literature, profitability of banks is generally measured by return on asset (ROA), return
on equity (ROE) and net interest margin (NIM).
The return on assets (ROA), which is the ratio of net income to total assets, measure how
profitably and efficiently the management, is using the firms total assets. On the other hand, the
return on equity (ROE), which is the ratio of net income to total equity, would indicate returns to
shareholders on the book value of their investments (Guru et al., 1999). The NIM variable is defined
as the net interest income divided by total assets. NIM is focused on the profit earned on interest
activities.
The loans to total assets ratio (LOAN) is a measure of income source of banks and it is
expected to affect profitability positively unless bank takes on unacceptable level of risk. This ratio is
one of the important measures of asset quality (Alper and Anbar, 2011). But, the coefficient of this
ratio is also expected to be negative because bad loans are expected to reduce profitability.
The total deposit to total assets (DEPOS) ratio is a variable measuring the amount of deposits
held by a bank proportional to its size. Deposits are banks primary sources of funds that they can
invest to generate income. Therefore, a positive correlation between ROA and deposits ratio is
expected (Davydenko, 2010).
The results concerning liquidity [Liquid Assets/Total Assets, (LQD)] are mixed. Molyneux
and Thorton (1992), and Guru et al. (1999) find a negative and significant relationship between the
level of liquidity and profitability. However, Bourke (1989) and Kosmidou and Pasiouras (2005) find
a significant positive relationship between liquidity and bank profits.
Fees and Commission Incomes (FCI) are called non-interest incomes in total assets. It would
represent a key source of bank revenue in the future. The coefficient of this ratio is expected to be
positive. Fees and Commission Expenses (FCE) are called non-interest expenses in total assets. The
coefficient of this ratio is expected to be negative.
The equity to assets ratio (CA) is also included as a measure of the overall capital strength.
The ratio is a measure of capital adequacy, and should capture the general average safety and
soundness of the financial institutions. The theory of capital structure states that a higher use of debt
(equity) financing within a certain range, called the target capital structure, might actually reduce
(increase) firms cost of capital. Thus a positive (negative) coefficient estimate for equity to assets
indicates an efficient (inefficient) management of banks capital structure. On the other hand,
according to some authors the equity to assets ratio is negatively related to the total revenue dependent
variable, since lower capital ratios should lead to higher bank revenues. A higher equity to assets ratio
tends to reduce the risk of equity and therefore lowers the equilibrium expected return on equity
required by investors. In addition, a higher equity to assets ratio lowers after tax earnings by reducing
the tax shield provided by the deductibility of interest payments (Staikouras and Wood, 2004).

32

Turkish Banking Sectors Profitability Factors

The asset size of bank is measured by natural logarithm of total assets. One of the most
important questions in the literature is if there exists an optimal bank size in order to maximize bank
profitability. It has been argued that a growing bank size is positively related to bank profitability.
Larger banks are likely to have a higher degree of product and loan diversification than smaller banks.
In addition to the higher diversification potential, economies of scale can also arise from a larger size.
As diversification reduces risks and economies of scale lead to increased operational efficiency, we
expect a positive effect of size on bank profitability. However, it is well known that banks that have
become extremely large exhibit a negative relationship between size and profitability due to agency
costs, bureaucratic processes and other reasons (Dietrich and Wanzenried, 2009). Firm size impacts
negatively profitability of bank for large banks but positively for small ones (Vong and Chan, 2009).
Some of the recent literature emphasizes the importance of changes in macroeconomic
conditions on bank performance. The common variables used include real gross domestic product
(GDP), real exchange rate (RER), inflation rate (P), interest rate (R).
Revell (1979) notes that the effect of inflation on bank profitability depends on whether the
wages of banks and other operating expenses increase at faster rate than inflation. Perry (1992)
suggests that the extent to which inflation affects bank profitability depends really on whether inflation
expectations are fully anticipated. If the bank fully anticipates the inflation rate, then this implies that
it can accordingly adjust its interest rates in order to increase their revenues faster than their costs and
thus acquire higher economic profits. Previous studies have reported a positive relationship between
inflation or long-term interest rate and profitability (Li, 2007). High inflation rates are generally
associated with high loan interest rates, and therefore, high incomes. However, if inflation are not
anticipated and banks are sluggish in adjusting their interest rates then there is a possibility that bank
costs may increase faster than bank revenues and hence adversely affect bank profitability. The GDP
per capital growth is expected to have a positive impact on banks performance (Naceur, 2003).
Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga (1999) show that rapid economic growth increase profitability for a
large number of countries.
Foreign Exchange risk arises when a bank holds assets or liabilities in foreign currencies and
impacts the earnings and capital of bank due to the fluctuations in the exchange rates. No one can
predict what the exchange rate will be in the next period, it can move in either upward or downward
direction regardless of what the estimates and predictions were. This uncertain movement poses a
threat to the earnings and capital of bank, if such a movement is in undesired and unanticipated
direction (Maroof Hussain, 2011).
4.2. Methodology
The long-run relationship between the bank specific and macroeconomic explanatory variables
and profitability variables will be examined by using time series econometric methods. All of the
series in model are seasonally adjusted to remove the seasonal effects by using Census X-12 seasonal
adjustment method and then, they are transformed with their natural logarithms to reduce
heteroscedasticity. Firstly we will define the order of integration in series by using unit root test. This
is accomplished by performing the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Testing the stationarity of
economic time series is of great importance since standard econometric methodologies assume
stationarity in the time series while they are, in fact, non-stationary. Consequently, the usual statistical
tests are likely to be inappropriate and the inferences drawn are likely to be erroneous and misleading
(Ekanayake, 1999).
The next step is to search for the long run relationships between nonstationary variables. In
this study the long run relationships between the variables will explore by using Johansen (1988) and
Johansen and Juselius (1990); hereafter JJ) cointegration procedure that is a popular conventional
cointegration method in empirical studies. The model is based on the error correction form given by:
p 1

Z t Z t 1 i Z t i 0 1t t

t 1,..., T

(1)

i 1

where Zt is an (nx1) column vector of p variables, and are matrices of coefficients, 0

and 1 are (nx1) column vectors of constant terms and trend coefficients, is a difference operator,
and t is p-dimensional Gaussian error with mean zero and variance matrix. The coefficient matrix
is known as the impact matrix and it contains information about the long-run relationships (Awokuse,
33

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2013, pp.27-41
2003). Johansens methodology requires the estimation of the vector autoregression (hereafter VAR).
Equation (1) and the residuals are then used to compute two likelihood ratios (LR) test statistics that
can be used in the determination of the unique cointegrating vectors of Zt. The first test which
considers the hypothesis that the rank of is less than or equal to r cointegrating vectors is given by
the trace test and the maximal eigenvalue test (Johansen, 1995).
5. Empirical Results
Results of the ADF test for Bank 1 are presented in Table 4. The null hypothesis is unit root
and the alternative hypothesis is level stationary. The Dickey-Fuller regressions include an intercept
and a linear trend in the levels, and include an intercept in the first differences. The numbers of
optimal lags are based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC). 95% of the critical values for several
observations are computed by stochastic simulations.
Table 4. ADF Unit Root Test Results (Bank 1 - Quarterly Data)
in Levels
in 1st Differences
Variable
ADF
CV at 5 %
Models
ADF
CV at 5 %
Models
Conclusion
LQD
(-3.0669 )
[-3.4937 ]
[0, none]
(-4.7798 )
[-1.9474 ]
[ 3, none]
I (1)
DEPOS
(-0.6331 )
[-1.9470 ]
[1, none]
(-4.4825 )
[-1.9470 ]
[ 0, none]
I (1)
LOAN
(-5.8676 )
[-3.4953 ]
[1, c+t]
I (0)
FCE
(-2.2914 )
[-2.9199 ]
[4, c]
(-6.7843 )
[-1.9474 ]
[ 3, none]
I (1)
FCI
(-0.6392 )
[-1.9470 ]
[0, none]
(-8.4448 )
[-1.9470 ]
[ 0, none]
I (1)
CA
(-2.2856 )
[-2.9212 ]
[5, c]
(-2.7531 )
[-1.9475 ]
[ 4, none]
I (1)
LOGA
(-5.8896 )
[-2.9155 ]
[0, c]
I (0)
GDP
(-2.4424 )
[-3.4953 ]
[1, c+t]
(-5.7301 )
[-2.9166 ]
[ 0, c ]
I (1)
P
(-10.7952)
[-2.9155 ]
[0, c]
I (0)
R
( -9.8728 )
[-3.5131 ]
[10, c+t]
I (0)
RER
( -3.0402 )
[-3.4937 ]
[0, c+t]
(-8.0903 )
[-1.9470 ]
[ 0, none]
I (1)
ROA
( -2.6811 )
[-2.9155 ]
[0, c]
(-9.7726 )
[-1.9470 ]
[ 0, none]
I (1)
ROE
( -3.4518 )
[-2.9166 ]
[1, c]
I (0)
NIM
( -1.2219 )
[-1.9470 ]
[1, none]
(-11.9874)
[-1.9470 ]
[ 0, none]
I (1)
Notes: c+t, c and none refer linear trend and constant with random walk model; constant with random walk
model and pure random walk model, respectively. CV is critical values.

Findings for Bank 1 indicate that LQD, DEPOS, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, ROA, NIM
variables have unit root or they are non-stationary in levels. However, they are stationary in first
differences. LOAN, LOGA, P, R, ROE are stationary in levels. In model obtained for Bank 1 are used
non-stationary variables in levels. However, ROA dependent variable is non-stationary in levels; it
isnt taken as model, because this model isnt statistically significant. Furthermore, in all model,
D2001 is dummy variable used for effects of the 2001 financial crisis in Turkey. The model obtained
for Bank 1 is follow:
Model 1: NIM f (LQD, DEPOS, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, D2001)
Results of the ADF test for Bank 2 are presented in Table 5.
Findings for Bank 2 indicate that LQD, DEPOS, LOAN, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, NIM
variables have unit root or they are non-stationary in levels. However, they are stationary in first
differences. LOGA, P, R, ROA, ROE are stationary in levels. In model obtained for Bank 2 are used
non-stationary variables in levels. The model obtained for Bank 2 is follow:
Model 2: NIM f (LQD, DEPOS, LOAN, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, D2001)
Results of the ADF test for Bank 3 are presented in Table 6.
Findings for Bank 3 indicate that LQD, DEPOS, LOAN, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, NIM
variables have unit root or they are non-stationary in levels. However, they are stationary in first
differences. LOGA, P, R, ROA, ROE are stationary in levels. In model obtained for Bank 3 are used
non-stationary variables in levels. The model obtained for Bank 3 is follow:
Model 3: NIM f (LQD, DEPOS, LOAN, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, D2001)
The cointegration test models are obtained from the analysis results of unit roots. These
models give summary in Table 7.
34

Turkish Banking Sectors Profitability Factors

Table 5. ADF Unit Root Test Results (Bank 2 - Quarterly Data)
in Levels
in 1st Differences
Variable
ADF
CV at 5 %
Models
ADF
CV at 5 %
Models
Conclusion
LQD
( -3.4386 ) [-3.4937]
[ 0, c+t ]
(-10.4436) [ -1.9470 ]
[0, none ]
I (1)
DEPOS
( -2.4952 ) [-2.9155]
[ 0, c ]
( -6.7947 ) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
LOAN
( -1.8443 ) [-3.4953]
[ 1, c+t ]
( -5.8663 ) [ -3.4953 ]
[ 0, c+t ]
I (1)
FCE
( -3.0677 ) [-3.4937]
[ 0, c+t ]
( -7.7099 ) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
FCI
( -2.6571 ) [-3.4937]
[ 0, c+t ]
( -8.4336 ) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
CA
( -2.9214 ) [-3.4937]
[ 0, c+t ]
( -5.7054 ) [ -1.9474 ]
[ 3, none ]
I (1)
LOGA
( -2.9601 ) [-2.9281]
[ 10, c ]
I (0)
GDP
( -2.4424 ) [-3.4953]
[ 1, c+t ]
( -5.7301 ) [ -2.9166 ]
[ 0, c ]
I (1)
P
(-10.7952) [-2.9155]
[ 0, c ]
I (0)
R
( -9.8728 ) [-3.5131]
[ 10, c+t ]
I (0)
RER
( -3.0402 ) [-3.4937]
[ 0, c+t ]
( -8.0903 ) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
ROA
( -3.3753 ) [-2.9155]
[ 0, c ]
I (0)
ROE
( -2.1199 ) [-1.9470]
[ 1, none ]
I (0)
NIM
( -2.9865 ) [-3.4937]
[ 0, c+t ]
( -7.2641 ) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
Notes: c+t, c and none refer linear trend and constant with random walk model; constant with random walk
model and pure random walk model, respectively. CV is critical values.

Table 6. ADF Unit Root Test Results (Bank 3 - Quarterly Data)

in Levels
in 1st Differences
Variable
ADF
CV at 5 %
Models
ADF
CV at 5 %
Models
Conclusion
LQD
( -3.2984 ) [ -3.4937 ]
[ 0, c+t ]
( -7.0757 ) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
DEPOS
( -2.1573 ) [ -2.9155 ]
[ 0, c ]
( -9.4292 ) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
LOAN
(+1.0717 ) [ -1.9469 ]
[ 0, none ]
( -6.3557 ) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
FCE
( -0.8411 ) [ -1.9469 ]
[ 0, none ]
( -7.9218 ) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
FCI
( -2.2910 ) [ -3.5550 ]
[ 0, c ]
( -6.4402 ) [ -1.9474 ]
[ 3, none ]
I (1)
CA
( -2.4494 ) [ -2.9166 ]
[ 1, c ]
(-12.6665) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
LOGA
( -4.9176 ) [ -3.5085 ]
[ 8, c+t ]
I (0)
GDP
( -2.4424 ) [ -3.4953 ]
[ 1, c+t ]
( -5.7301 ) [ -2.9166 ]
[ 0, c ]
I (1)
P
(-10.7952) [ -2.9155 ]
[ 0, c ]
I (0)
R
( -9.8728 ) [ -3.5131 ]
[ 10, c+t ]
I (0)
RER
( -3.0402 ) [ -3.4937 ]
[ 0, c+t ]
( -8.0903 ) [ -1.9470 ]
[ 0, none ]
I (1)
ROA
( -6.0169 ) [ -2.9155 ]
[ 0, c ]
I (0)
ROE
( -6.4714 ) [ -3.4937 ]
[ 0, c+t ]
I (0)
NIM
( -2.7233 ) [ -2.9166 ]
[ 1, c ]
( -8.9449 ) [ -1.9471 ]
[ 1, none ]
I (1)
Notes: c+t, c and none refer linear trend and constant with random walk model; constant with random walk
model and pure random walk model, respectively. CV is critical values.

Table 7. The Cointegration Test Models

Models Dependent Variable
Explanatory Variables
Model 1
NIM
f (LQD, DEPOS, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, D2001)
Model 2

NIM

f (LQD, DEPOS, LOAN, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, D2001)

Model 3

NIM

f (LQD, DEPOS, LOAN, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, D2001)

The null hypothesis (H0: r=0) for Model 1 is rejected at 5 percent significance. But, second
hypothesis (H1: r1) isnt rejected. The results of Johansen-Juselius cointegration tests indicate that
there is a unique long-term or equilibrium relationship between variables. The cointegrating
coefficients are presented in Table 8. The long-run coefficients for the variables DEPOS, CA, GDP
and RER are positive and strongly statistically significant in Model 1. But FCE variable is not
significant. In addition, the long-run coefficients for the variables LQD and FCI are negative and
statistically significant in this model.

35

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2013, pp.27-41
Table 8. The Results of Johansen-Juselius Cointegration Tests for Bank 1
MODEL 1: NIM= f (LQD, DEPOS, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, D2001), k = 1
Eigenvalue Trace
Max-Eigenvalue
H0
H1
Statistic 5 % CV P-Value
Statistic
5 % CV
r=0
r=1
0.598264 159.9325 159.5297 0.0475
49.24578
52.36261
r1
r=2
0.575083 110.6867 125.6154 0.2814
46.21646
46.23142
r2
r=3
0.384562 64.47021 95.75366 0.8765
26.21277
40.07757
r3
r=4
0.290936 38.25745 69.81889 0.9693
18.56570
33.87687
r4
r=5
0.133099 19.69175 47.85613 0.9925
7.712861
27.58434
r5
r=6
0.100755 11.97889 29.79707 0.9326
5.734808
21.13162
r6
r=7
0.067568 6.244084 15.49471 0.6667
3.777768
14.26460
r7
r=8
0.044645 2.466316 3.841466 0.1163
2.466316
3.841466
Estimated long-run coefficients
NIM =
LQD
DEPOS
FCE
FCI
CA
GDP
RER
-3.589
1.920
99.544
-23.588
1.433
73.867
102.281
(1.079)
(0.670) (104.010) (11.471) (0.710)
(25.919)
(18.589)
[ -3.327] [2.865]
[0.957]
[-2.056]
[2.020]
[2.850]
[5.502]
AC= 84.234 (0.046)

P-Value
0.1009
0.0502
0.6879
0.8475
0.9991
0.9876
0.8820
0.1163

HET=747.194 (0.047)

Notes: k is # of optimal lags based on FPE, AIC, SIC and HQ information criterias test results. Critical values
(CV) used are taken from Osterwald-Lenum (1992). Values in parentheses are standard errors.
t-statistics for coefficients are in [ ]. AC and HET are the LM test and Whites (1980) test, respectively.
P-values for these tests are in ( ) then test coefficients.

The null hypothesis (H0: r=0) for Model 2 is also rejected at 5 percent significance. But,
second hypothesis (H1: r1) isnt rejected. The results of Johansen-Juselius cointegration tests indicate
that there is a unique long-term or equilibrium relationship between variables. The cointegrating
coefficients are presented in Table 9. The long-run coefficients for the variables LQD and CA are
positive and strongly statistically significant in Model 2. But DEPOS, FCE, FCI and RER variables
are not significant. In addition, the long-run coefficients for the variables LOAN and GDP are
negative and statistically significant in this model.
Table 9. The Results of Johansen-Juselius Cointegration Tests for Bank 2
MODEL 2: NIM = f (LQD, DEPOS, LOAN, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, D2001), k = 1
Eigenvalue Trace
Max-Eigenvalue
H0
H1
Statistic 5 % CV P-Value
Statistic
5 % CV
r=0
r=1
0.653144 205.4449 197.3709 0.0187
57.17767
58.43354
r1
r=2
0.548405 148.2672 159.5297 0.1735
42.92831
52.36261
r2
r=3
0.455333 105.3389 125.6154 0.4331
32.80936
46.23142
r3
r=4
0.378885 72.52951 95.75366 0.6344
25.71693
40.07757
r4
r=5
0.337596 46.81259 69.81889 0.7679
22.24154
33.87687
r5
r=6
0.175594 24.57105 47.85613 0.9296
10.42695
27.58434
r6
r=7
0.174628 14.14410 29.79707 0.8324
10.36374
21.13162
r7
r=8
0.054979 3.780358 15.49471 0.9204
3.053586
14.26460
r8
r=9
0.013369 0.726772 3.841466 0.3939
0.726772
3.841466
Estimated long-run coefficients
NIM =
LQD
DEPOS
LOAN
FCE
FCI
CA
GDP
3.240
0.036
-0.500
-33.622
-12.588
2.206
-60.507
(0.483)
(0.410)
(0.147)
(18.781)
7.240)
(0.441) (15.797)
[ 6.704]
[0.087]
[-3.409]
[-1.790] [ -1.739] [5.001]
[-3.830]
AC= 83.427 (0.405)
HET= 963.980 (0.327)

P-Value
0.0662
0.3281
0.6040
0.7214
0.5889
0.9780
0.7099
0.9431
0.3939
RER
18.134
(10.085)
[1.798]

Notes: k is # of optimal lags based on FPE, AIC, SIC and HQ information criterias test results. Critical
values (CV) used are taken from Osterwald-Lenum (1992). Values in parentheses are standard errors.
t-statistics for coefficients are in [ ]. AC and HET are the LM test and Whites (1980) test, respectively.
P-values for these tests are in ( ) then test coefficients.

36

Turkish Banking Sectors Profitability Factors

The null hypothesis (H0: r=0) for Model 3 is also rejected at 5 percent significance. But,
second hypothesis (H1: r1) isnt rejected. The results of Johansen-Juselius cointegration tests indicate
that there is a unique long-term or equilibrium relationship between variables. The cointegrating
coefficients are presented in Table 10. The long-run coefficients for the variables LQD, LOAN and
RER are positive and strongly statistically significant in Model 3. But DEPOS and FCE variables are
not significant. In addition, the long-run coefficients for the variables FCI, CA and GDP are negative
and statistically significant in this model. All results and comparison of cointegration tests results are
reported in Table 11.
Table 10. The Results of Johansen-Juselius Cointegration Tests for Bank 3
MODEL 3: NIM = f (LQD, DEPOS, LOAN, FCE, FCI, CA, GDP, RER, D2001), k = 1
Eigenvalue Trace
Max-Eigenvalue
H0
H1
Statistic 5 % CV P-Value
Statistic
5 % CV
r=0
r=1
0.713593 226.6506 197.3709 0.0007
67.51852
58.43354
r1
r=2
0.595982 159.1321 159.5297 0.0525
48.94002
52.36261
r2
r=3
0.513862 110.1921 125.6154 0.2941
38.94815
46.23142
r3
r=4
0.386729 71.24396 95.75366 0.6801
26.40321
40.07757
r4
r=5
0.300717 44.84075 69.81889 0.8359
19.31581
33.87687
r5
r=6
0.232438 25.52493 47.85613 0.9039
14.28495
27.58434
r6
r=7
0.112403 11.23999 29.79707 0.9551
6.438809
21.13162
r7
r=8
0.071122 4.801178 15.49471 0.8296
3.984003
14.26460
r8
r=9
0.015019 0.817176 3.841466 0.3660
0.817176
3.841466
Estimated long-run coefficients
NIM =
LQD
DEPOS
LOAN
FCE
FCI
CA
GDP
0.674
0.977
0.225
9.086
-5.281
-0.742
-26.132
(0.258) (0.066)
(0.107)
(8.188)
(1.503)
(0.221)
(12.188)
[2.615] [1.490]
[2.108]
[1.110]
[ -3.514] [-3.353]
[-2.144]
AC= 74.198 (0.691)
HET= 997.033 (0.170)

P-Value
0.0051
0.1077
0.2431
0.6748
0.8022
0.8025
0.9726
0.8610
0.3660
RER
10.323
(5.162)
[2.000]

Notes: k is # of optimal lags based on FPE, AIC, SIC and HQ information criterias test results. Critical
values (CV) used are taken from Osterwald-Lenum (1992). Values in parentheses are standard errors. tstatistics for coefficients are in [ ]. AC and HET are the LM test and Whites (1980) test, respectively. Pvalues for these tests are in ( ) then test coefficients.

Table 11. Comparison of Cointegration Tests Results

Determinants

Expected
Relationship
+,-

Bank 1
(Model 1)
-

Bank 2
(Model 2)
+

Bank 3
(Model 3)
+

DEPOS

**

**

LOAN

+,-

LQD

FCE

**

**

**

FCI

**

CA

+, -

GDP

+, -

RER

**

Notes : Empty box shows that variable is not take part in model.
+,- = There are different opinions.
+ = Positive relationship.
- = Negative relationship.
** = Variable is insignificant.

Liquidity (LQD) defined as cash as a percent of total assets has a significant and negative
impact on profitability in Model 1 (for state-owned bank). This may possibly be due to the fact that the
state-owned bank has high liquid assets to decrease liquidity risk of bank. But, in Model 2 (for
37

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2013, pp.27-41
privately-owned bank) and Model 3 (for foreign bank), this variable has a significant and positive
impact on profitability. This may possibly be due to the fact that the privately-owned and foreign
banks have more opportunities to invest in various short term liquid assets. These results are in line
with prior studies.
Deposits (DEPOS) measured as total deposits to total assets has a significant and positive
impact on profitability in Model 1 (for state-owned bank). This is expected, since banks normally
should strive to attract more deposits as a source of funds. But, in Model 2 (for privately-owned bank)
and Model 3 (for foreign bank), this variable has an insignificant impact on profitability.
Asset Quality (LOAN) measured as total loans to total assets ratio isnt used in Model 1. This
variable has a significant and negative impact on profitability in Model 2 (for privately-owned bank)
and a significant and positive impact on profitability in Model 3 (for foreign bank). These results are
in line with prior studies. Loans are a measure of income source of banks. Thus, we expect a positive
relationship between asset quality and profitability. But, the coefficient of this ratio is also expected
to be negative because bad loans are expected to reduce profitability.
Fees and Commission Expenses (FCE) to total assets ratio has an insignificant impact on
profitability in all models.
Fees and Commission Incomes (FCI) to total assets ratio has an insignificant impact on
profitability in Model 2 (for privately-owned bank). In Model 1 (for state-owned bank) and Model 3
(for foreign bank), this variable has a significant and negative impact on profitability. This relationship
is unexpected since it would represent a key source of bank revenue in the future. This indicates that
greater bank activity diversification negatively influences returns.


Capital Adequacy (CA) measured as equity to total assets is expected that the higher this ratio,
the lower the need for external funding and the higher the profitability of the bank. On the other hand,
according to some authors the equity to assets ratio is negatively related to the total revenue dependent
variable, since lower capital ratios should lead to higher bank revenues and a higher equity to assets
ratio lowers after tax earnings by reducing the tax shield provided by the deductibility of interest
payments. Thus, this variable is expected that it has positive and negative impact on profitability. In
Model 1 (for state-owned bank) and Model 2 (for privately-owned bank), this variable has a
significant and positive impact on profitability. But, in Model 3 (for foreign bank), it has a significant
and negative.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to have a positive impact on profitability
since the banking sector is sensitive to the overall development of the economy. With the real sector
growing, banks can successfully collect their loans and extend new ones. This variable has a
significant and positive impact on profitability in Model 1 (for state-owned bank). This result stands in
line with the empirical evidence of Bourke (1989), Molyneux and Thornton (1992), Demirguc-Kunt
and Huizinga (1999), Bikker and Hu (2002), Athanasoglou et al. (2008), Dietrich and Wanzenried
(2009) and Davydenko (2011). But, in Model 2 (for privately-owned bank) and Model 3 (for foreign
bank), this variable has a significant and negative impact on profitability. This finding agrees with
theory and empirical evidence that; the relationship between GDP trend growth and bank profitability
could be pro-cyclical. When GDP trend growth is positive, the effect to bank profitability is positive
and when GDP trend growth in negative, the effect on profitability is negative. This result stands in
line with the empirical evidence of Naceur (2003), Panayiotis et al., (2005) and Francis (2011).
Real Exchange Rate (RER) is expected to have a positive impact on profitability. In Model 1
(for state-owned bank) and Model 3 (for foreign bank), this variable has a significant and positive
impact on profitability. This result is in line with expected relationship. But, in Model 2 (for privatelyowned bank), it has an insignificant impact on profitability.
6. Concluding Remarks
The main aim of the study is to investigate the long-run relationship between the bank specific
and macroeconomic factors and the profitability of commercial banks in Turkish banking sector. The
sample period spans from 1998 to 2011. The previous findings in the literature are examined.
Referring to the literature, banks profitability is determined by internal factors in terms of bankspecific determinants and external factors that reflect the macroeconomic factors. The results from
both previous studies and this study showed that compared with internal factors, external factors have
less impact on bank profitability.
38

Turkish Banking Sectors Profitability Factors

Empirical findings can be summarized as follows:
i) The state-owned bank has high liquid assets to decrease liquidity risk of bank. The
privately-owned and the foreign banks have more opportunities to invest in various short term liquid
assets.
ii) The state-owned bank normally should strive to attract more deposits as a source of funds.
But, deposits for the privately-owned and the foreign banks have an insignificant impact on
profitability.
iii) Loans are a measure of income source of banks. In the privately-owned bank, bad loans
reduce profitability while loans for the foreign bank have positive impact on profitability.
iv) Fees and commission expenses have an insignificant impact on profitability for all banks.
v) Greater bank activity diversification negatively influences returns.
vi) The lower the need for external funding, the higher the profitability of the state-owned and
the privately-owned banks. But, in the foreign bank, lower capital leads to higher bank revenues.
vii) The banking sector is sensitive to the overall development of the economy. With the real
sector growing, banks can successfully collect their loans and extend new ones.
viii) In the state-owned and the foreign banks, real exchange rate has a significant impact on
profitability.
ix) The 2001 economic crisis has a negative effect on all Turkish Banking sector.
This study makes original contributions to finance and banking literature and this issue will be
addressed in future work.
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