The21stCenturyClashofChristianandIslamic

Cultures
DavidMurrinistheauthorofBreakingtheCodeof
History,theculminationofdecadesofpersonal
researchacrossawiderangeofdisciplines.David
compellinglyarguesthathumanbehaviourisnot
random,butdeterminedbyspecific,quantifiable
andpredictablepatternsfuelledbyourneedto
surviveandprosper.HehascalledthiscycleThe
FiveStagesofEmpire,whichduetoitsfractal
natureisapplicabletoempires,allthewaydownto
thecycleoftheindividual.AccordingtoDavid,to
resolvetheissuesconfrontingustodaywecannotmerelystudythepast.Thehumanracewill
needtounderstandthisprecisealgorithmofbehaviourthathascausedustoreenactthe
samedestructivecyclesinevergreatermagnitudes,inordertochangeourfuture.Heisalso
aGlobalFellowatPS21.
TheinclusiveregionsofChristianityandIslam
TobetterunderstandthecurrentsituationintheMiddleEast,onehastounderstandthe1500
yearssincetheappearanceofIslamanditsinteractionwiththeolderChristianReligion.
Both Islam and Christianity are what Breaking The code of History (BTCH) defines as
inclusivereligions,i.e.beliefsthatonecanjoinbychoice,ratherthanexclusivereligionsthat
areonlyconferredbybirthright.Assuch,historically,theywerebothabletospreadtheir
messageandexpandtheirinfluenceacrosstheMediterranean,independentofdemographic
expansion,bydisplacingotherreligions.
Theybecamethefoundationsoftwogreatempirecyclesthathaverisenandfallenwith
mutualexclusivity.ThisderivesfromthefactthattheybothsharedtheMediterraneanbasin
astheirhome,sowhenonehasbeenstrong,theotherhasbeenweak,withasynchronicity
thathaslastedfor1500years.
Today,aftermanycenturiesofglobaldominancebytheWesternChristianSuperEmpire,
America,thelastofagreatseriesofChristianempires,isindecline.Oncemore,synchronous
tothatprocess,theIslamicworldisinascension.HencethewarsintheMiddleEastand
IslamicextremismintheWestarenotaboutafewviolentradicals;rather,theyarepartofa
muchmoreprofoundclashofcivilisationsthathasspannedcenturies.
Thetimingofsuchpowershiftsseemsalwaysdrivenbythedeclineofthedominantempire
thatcreatesapowervacuumintowhichotheryoungandaspiringempiresseektoexpand.
ThusitisAmericasdeclineasthelastoftheWesternChristianEmpiresthatisdictatingthe
rateofexpansionandchangeintheMiddlesEast,allowingtheregiontofollowitsown
expandingcycle.
1

TheimplicationsofthislongtermpowershiftarethattimeisnotonthesideoftheWestin
itsstruggleagainstJihadsterrorism.TheWestfacesamultidecadechallengethatrequires
both shortterm riskmitigation and longterm solutions focusedon the integration of its
Islamicpopulation.
TheArabSpring
This is a somewhat misleading description of current events, which seemingly only has
meaningintheChineseculturewheretheyviewspringasatimewhenenergyrises. But
wheredoesthisenergyderivefrom?AndwherewillitleadtheMiddleEastinthedecade
ahead? Most importantly, what strategy should the West follow to maximise its own
outcomes?
Usingtraditionalgeopoliticalanalysis,itappearsthattheregioncontinuestodevolveintothe
quagmireofwarwithmultipleactorsandanuncertainoutcome.However,ifwestandback
andviewtheregionusingtheperspectiveofBreakingtheCodeofHistoryandtheFive
StagesofEmpireModelduringwhichtheempiregoesthroughaprocessakintothehuman
lifecycleofbirth,maturity,anddeclinethenthecurrentsituationandfutureprognosis
becomemuchclearer.
AmoreaccuratetermfortheArabSpringwouldbetheRegionalCivilWaroftheIslamic
MiddleEast,inwhichtheIslamicsystemisidentifiedasbeinginasimilarphaseofitscycle
tothatoftheWesternChristianSuperEmpireinitslatestageofregionalisation.
Inthemajorityofsystems,theendstageofregionalisationhasbeenmarkedbyamassive
youthfuldemographicbulgethatseeksthemosteffectiveandbroadlyrepresentativevalues
andleadership.TheEnglishCivilWar(164251),theAmericanCivilWar(186165)andthe
ChineseCivilWar(192750)areclearexamplesofthisprocess.Ineachcase,thechallenger
to the incumbent powerbase represented a much broader enfranchisement of the general
population.Asaresult,itspowerultimatelyprevailed,andthenewmilitarised,polarised
societythenmarchedoutintotheworldonitspathtoempire.
Theenergyofsuchacivilwarquestionsallaspects ofasocietys internalworkingand
leadershipofthechallengingsystem.ThisisparalleledbythesubcivilwarwithintheSunni
powersthathascreatedthewaveofcivilunrestinEgyptandLibyaandnowalsoSyria.
Theserevolutionsrepresentthesweepingasideofoldregimeswithcentralisedleadershipand
narrowpowerbasesthatwerelinkedtothewesternconstruct.Theirreplacementwillbea
leadershipthatcharacterisesanewSunniIslamicidentityandprideinaDarwinianprocess
thatissweepingthroughtheregion.
Thisregionalcivilwarhasactuallybeengoingonforlongerthanwerealise.However,ithas
onlycometoournoticesinceitsexpansionhasthreatenedtheWest,coincidentalwiththe
endoftheColdWar.Theconflicthasgonethroughanumberofstages.
2

Stage1:TheIranianRevolutionandChallenge
TheShiasofIranroseupagainstWesterncontrolandcreatedanIslamicShiastate.Once
consolidatedtheythenwenttowarwithSunniIraqwhichcommencedIransbidforregional
control.However,withonly15%oftheregionspopulation,tobesuccessful,theyhadtowin
relativelyquicklybeforethemorenumerousSunnipopulationmobilised.Thus,theShias
havelosttheirfirstmoveadvantageandarenoweffectivelyonthedefensivesurroundedby
morenumerousandmotivatedSunnishencetheirpactwiththeUSandcontinuedneedfor
developingnuclearweaponstoensuretheirsurvival.
Stage2:MobilisationoftheSunnipopulation
ThevanguardwastheriseoftheJihadists,whowerethenfollowedbyasecondphaseof
broadbasedmobilisationagainstnarrowdictatorships.Theserevolutionswashedawaythe
oldcoldwardictatorshipsandsoughttoreplacethemwithanewmechanismofleadership
consistentwiththeprocessofaregionalcivilwar.
With85%oftheregionspopulation,itisinevitablethat,attheendoftheregionalcivilwar,
MiddleEasternpowerwillbeconsolidatedbytheSunnisratherthantheShiasmuchasonce
happenedwiththefirstcaliphate,100yearsintoitslifespan.Thus,thefinaloutcomeofthis
regionalcivilwarprocesswillultimatelybeanIslamicMiddleEast,governedbyasingle
newSunniregime.TheSunnileadershipchallengefallsintotwocategories:Jihadistsand
Islamicdemocraticnations.
TheJihadists
TheJihadistsfirstappearedbackin1923intheformoftheMuslimBrotherhood.Today,the
mostprominentofthesegroupsareAlQaeda,theTaliban,ISIS,AlShababandBokoHaram.
Collectively,theyrepresentanextremereligious groupabletomobiliseandpolarisethe
youthintheregiontofightwithlittlefearofdeath.Buthowisthatpossible?
Oneofthekeypatternsinpastregionalcivilwarsisthatthevictoralwayshasanideology
perceived to provide the greatest enfranchisement for the majority. This excluded the
CatholicmonarchyintheEnglishCivilWar,theplantationdrivenSouthintheAmerican
CivilWarandtheChinesenationalistsintheircivilwar.
Similarly, the Jihadists provide enfranchisement for the lowest of their fighters in their
connectiontoGod,bygivingthemacausesorighteousintheirownmindsthattheirlivesare
oflittleconsequence.BeforeWesternreadersrecoilinshockatthisprognosis,weshould
rememberthatitwasProtestantfundamentalismthatwontheEnglishCivilWar,anabiding
beliefindemocracyandfreedomthatwontheAmericancivilwar,andChinesecommunism
withitsconceptofequalitythatwontheirstruggle.

Quitesimply,IslamicfundamentalismmuchasitdidwhenthefollowersofMuhammad
swept out of the desert in the7th centuryhas the ability to unite more disenfranchised
followers thananyotherbeliefsystemcurrentlyintheMiddleEast.Itssuccessisjusta
questionoforganisation,effectiveleadershipandlackofopposition.
Assooftenseeninhistorybefore,challengerstoestablishedsystemsandempiresarealways
perceivedasbarbarians.Inreality,duetotheverynatureoftherelativepositiononthe
empirecurveofthechallengerandthehegemon,thecapabilitygapisalwaysmuchsmaller
thanappreciated.
TakeISISforexample.IthasfoughtHamasinSyriaandisgainingground.Hamasisan
IraniantrainedgroupwhowereabletogivetheIsraeliarmyatoughtimeinLebanon.Thus
wemustconcludeISISshouldnotbeunderestimatedasanorganisationthatcomprisesa
strategicvision,significantfinancialresources,andbattlehardenedforces.
Foryears,theWestunderestimatedtheorganisationalcapabilityofAlQaedaandnowis
shockedthatISISissowellorganisedandfunded.Inaddition,ISIShasnowabsorbedthe
resourcesoftheIraqiarmyandcreatedthefirstJihadiststate,somethingthatneitherthe
TalibannorAlQaedaeverachieved.
Ourconclusionisthatwithouteffectivewesternintervention,ISISismostlikelytoultimately
dominatetheJihadistgroup.Thatwill,inallprobability,notonlyuniteSyriaandIraqintoa
caliphate,butalsoexpandacrosstheregion.Ifbyanychancethisprognosisiswrong,then
weshouldexpectanotherIslamicSunnioffshoottotakeitsplace,justasISISsprungfrom
AlQaeda.
Thatcaveataside,itisimportanttorememberthattheexpansionaryprocessatthisstageof
empireisnotlinearandthusweshouldnotbesurprisedatthespeedofISIS'successand
consequentialexpansionatthisstageforthewar.Itispossiblethattheirsuccesswillcontinue
atthecurrentstunningpace,rapidlyupturningthecurrentMiddleEasternorder.
IslamicDemocraticNations
Thisgroupmayyetplayacriticalroleintheresolutionoftheregionalcivilwar.Turkeyisa
primeexample:initsdesiretoleadtheregion,ithasbeentransformingitselffromasecular
democraticsocietybasedontheWesternmodelintoanIslamicdemocracyunderPresident
Erdogan.Intime,TurkeysdemocracywillbecomemoresimilartotheIslamicRepublicof
Iran.Althoughtheyhavebeenindirectcompetitioninthepast,thismightbringthetwo
nationstogetherinanallianceagainsttheJihadistsintheregion.Apotentialthirdelementto
this alliance could come from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt who have renounced
violenceandseektogainpoliticalpowerthroughdemocraticmeans.
However,theWestshouldtemperitsexpectationsthatWesterndemocracymightbecloned
intheMiddleEast,asitisinevitablethatIslamicdemocracywillappeartobeverydifferent

fromsecularWesterndemocracy.IfanIslamicDemocraticideologygroupwintheregional
civilwar,itwill,inallprobability,resultintheformationofaMiddleEasternUnion.
TheFuture
TheWestfacesalongmultidecadestruggleagainsttheforcesoftheriseoftheMiddleEast
ontwofronts:thedomesticandthegeopolitical.
Domestically, WesternnationswithsignificantIslamicminoritieswillhavetoenactlong
term policies of integration and deradicalisation in conjunction with shortterm risk
mitigationsecuritystrategies thatwillrequireincreasedresources andmeasures thatwill
unavoidablyreduceindividualfreedoms.
Onthegeopoliticalfront, thefirststagefortheWestistounderstandtheprocessesinthis
regionalcivilwar,andtothenseektoobstructandminimisethesuccessoftheJihadist
groupsandencouragetheriseofthedemocraticnations.Theoneprocessthatactsinfavour
oftheWestisthatasgroupslikeISISbecomesuccessfulanddevelopanationstatethey
willthenbecomevulnerabletotheconventionalmeansofwarfareinwhichtheyarevastly
disadvantaged.
Next, they would be exposed to Special Forces units in a longterm program of attacks
againsttheirkeyinfrastructure.However,therealchallengeaftertheWesternfailuresinIraq
andAfghanistanwillbetomobilisepublicsupporttodeploysufficientandswiftlysuccessful
resourcesagainstISIS.
IntermsofprioritisingthreatstotheWest,eveniftheMiddleEastbecameaJihadistEmpire,
it would take well over a decade of economic growth to develop an industrial military
complexthatcouldbeathreattotheWestonaconventionalbasis.Duringthattime,China's
risetopowerwillhavebecomethemajorconventionalmilitarythreattotheWest.
WhenChinabecomesmoreassertiveintheregion,whichsidewilltheMiddleEastsupport?
Becauseofitsoil,neutralitywillnotbeanoption.WewouldexpectademocraticIslamic
MiddleEasttosidewiththeWest.ButwhatiftheJihadists dominatetheMiddleEast?
WoulditreactlikeAfghanistandidtoRussia,orallywithChinaagainsttheWest?
ProjectfortheStudyofthe21st Centuryisanonnational,nonideological,nonpartisan
organization.Allviewsexpressedaretheauthorsown.