SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9497656555
R Square
0.9020548003
Adjusted R Square
0.8991740591
Standard Error
19.856998905
Observations
36
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
34
35

SS
123468.424550769
13406.2137873697
136874.638338139

MS
123468.424550769
394.3004055109

Coefficients
94.39364893
5.6374466082

Standard Error
6.7593473906
0.318579701

t Stat
13.964905704
17.6955612394

F
Significance F
313.1328875779 1.001853373716E-018

P-value
1.2110560742047E-015
1.0018533737165E-018

Lower 95%
80.6570023865
4.9900147638

Upper 95%
108.1302954735
6.2848784526

Lower 95.0%
80.6570023865
4.9900147638

Upper 95.0%
108.1302954735
6.2848784526

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.060612368
R Square
0.0036738592
Adjusted R
-0.0256298509
Standard Er
0.0859258832
Observatio
36
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable

1
34
35

SS
MS
F
Significance F
0.0009256523 0.000926 0.125372 0.725466
0.2510307518 0.007383
0.2519564041

Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
0.9495931548
0.143079029 6.636844 1.30E-007 0.658822 1.240365
0.0002246284 0.354079 0.725466 -0.000377 0.000536

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
0.658822 1.240365
-0.000377 0.000536

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.794641
R Square 0.631454
Adjusted R 0.620614
Standard Er39.82592
Observatio
36
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 92397.48 92397.48 58.25435 7.18E-009
34 53927.54 1586.104
35
146325

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept
268.5 48.31431 5.55736 3.24E-006 170.3135 366.6865 170.3135
X Variable 0.576044 0.075473 7.632454 7.18E-009 0.422665 0.729424 0.422665

Upper 95.0%
366.6865
0.729424

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.060612
R Square 0.003674
Adjusted R -0.02563
Standard Er0.085926
Observatio
36
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 0.000926 0.000926 0.125372 0.725466
34 0.251031 0.007383
35 0.251956

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept 0.949593 0.143079 6.636844 1.30E-007 0.658822 1.240365 0.658822
X Variable 7.95E-005 0.000225 0.354079 0.725466 -0.000377 0.000536 -0.000377

Upper 95.0%
1.240365
0.000536

Year
2004

Quarter
Winter

Production
90

Production+Id
103

Spring

85

98

Four quarter total

333
Summer

56

69
358

Fall

102

115
362

2005

Winter

115

128
367

Spring

89

102
375

Summer

61

74
425

Fall

110

123
446

2006

Winter

165

178
483

Spring

110

123
621

Summer

98

111
657

Fall

248

261
689

2007

Winter

201

214
701

Spring

142

155
727

Summer

110

123
777

Fall

274

287
800

2008

Winter

251

264
815

Spring

165

178
846

Summer

125

138
836

Fall

305

318
829

2009

Winter

241

254
836

Spring

158

171
830

Summer

132

145

Fall

299

312

854
881
2010

Winter

265

278

Spring

185

198

891
925
Summer

142

155

Fall

333

346

942
932
2011

Winter

282

295

Spring

175

188

947
964
Summer

157

170

Fall

350

363

972
998
2012

Winter

290

303

Spring

201

214

1028
1078
Summer

187

200

Fall

400

413

Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

Winter

Spring

1.404664
1.532831
1.231655
1.30774
1.22042
1.255079
1.255987
1.196446

1.0997304582
0.8913043478
0.8683473389
0.8573148706
0.8211284514
0.872246696
0.7870225013
0.8129154796

Total
Mean

10.40482
1.300603

7.0100101438
0.876251268

Seasonal Index For Each Quarter

Summer
Fall
0.7988422576
1.2777777778
0.74
1.1297359357
0.6948356808
1.5512630015
0.6542553191
1.4559289791
0.6563614744
1.5279279279
0.6888361045
1.4386167147
0.664167113
1.477054429
0.7024793388
1.4741116751

6.6502796856
0.8312849607

11.3324164408
1.4165520551

CF
Adjusted 1.175768
Index
117.5768

Year
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Quarter
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

0.7921468429
79.2146842864

Production
90
85
56
102
115
89
61
110
165
110
98
248
201
142
110
274
251
165
125
305
241
158
132
299
265
185
142
333
282
175
157
350
290
201
187
400

0.7514964956
75.1496495587

1.280588433
128.0588433028

Calculations For Deseasonalized Production

Production + ID
Seasonal Index
538
1.0595205717
533
0.9496999693
504
0.8907956205
550
1.0999838385
563
1.0595205717
537
0.9496999693
509
0.8907956205
558
1.0999838385
613
1.0595205717
558
0.9496999693
546
0.8907956205
696
1.0999838385
649
1.0595205717
590
0.9496999693
558
0.8907956205
722
1.0999838385
699
1.0595205717
613
0.9496999693
573
0.8907956205
753
1.0999838385
689
1.0595205717
606
0.9496999693
580
0.8907956205
747
1.0999838385
713
1.0595205717
633
0.9496999693
590
0.8907956205
781
1.0999838385
730
1.0595205717
623
0.9496999693
605
0.8907956205
798
1.0999838385
738
1.0595205717
649
0.9496999693
635
0.8907956205
848
1.0999838385

Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

Coded Quarter
61
62
63
64

Estimated Production
438.2778920295
443.9153386377
449.5527852459
455.1902318541

Seasonal Index
1.8351213121
1.8625023387
1.8898833653
1.9172643919

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Fall

Spring

Fall

Spring

Fall

Spring

Fall

Spring

Fall

0
Spring

2019

Four quuarter moving average Centered moving average

83.25
86.375
89.5
90
90.5
91.125
91.75
92.75
93.75
100
106.25
108.875
111.5
116.125
120.75
138
155.25
159.75
164.25
168.25
172.25
173.75
175.25
178.5
181.75
188
194.25
197.125
200
201.875
203.75
207.625
211.5
210.25
209
208.125
207.25
208.125
209
208.25
207.5

210.5
213.5
216.875
220.25
221.5
222.75
227
231.25
233.375
235.5
234.25
233
234.875
236.75
238.875
241
242
243
246.25
249.5
253.25
257
263.25
269.5

4.4246910828

0.9040179134
4

nalized Production
Deseasonalized Production
507.7768326113
561.2298801985
565.7863469668
500.0073462491
531.3724103349
565.4417367103
571.3993067582
507.2801803764
578.563565782
587.5539833973
612.9352092141
632.7365690716
612.541197704
621.2488354917
626.4063127133
656.3732799852
659.7323531511
645.4670104346
643.2451920873
684.5555122283
650.2941220617
638.096261539
651.1033357952
679.1008866329
672.9458766763
666.5262929937
662.3292553779
710.0104316737
688.9908695284
655.9966517142
679.1681347519
725.4652041942
696.5414543999
683.3737190409
712.8458934999
770.9204174895

Coded Quarter
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Production + ID

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Fall

Spring

Fall

Spring

Fall

Spring

Fall

Spring

Fall

Deseasonalized Product

Spring

Fall

Quarterly Projected Production

804.2931002659
826.7933563885
849.6023306625
872.7200230878

Specific seasonal index

0.7988422576
1.2777777778
1.4046639232
1.0997304582
0.74
1.1297359357
1.5328310011
0.8913043478
0.6948356808
1.5512630015
1.2316546763
0.8683473389
0.6542553191
1.4559289791
1.3077399381
0.8573148706
0.6563614744
1.5279279279
1.2204204204
0.8211284514

0.6888361045
1.4386167147
1.2550790068
0.872246696
0.664167113
1.477054429
1.2559872272
0.7870225013
0.7024793388
1.4741116751
1.1964461994
0.8129154796

Production + ID

2012

Fall

Spring

Deseasonalized Production