Cost Estimation
Cost Estimation
Cost Estimation
Objectives
To introduce the fundamentals of software
costing and pricing
To describe three metrics for software
productivity assessment
To explain why different techniques
should be used for software estimation
To describe the principles of the COCOMO
2 algorithmic cost estimation model
Topics covered
Planning a project means:
Identifying activities, milestones, deliverables
Identifying logical dependencies among activites
Allocating
but
Personell Costs
Overheads may be 100%, 200% of the
standard costs
A software engineer earning 30K/y may
cost 50K/y
Cost tables
Analyst
60.00/h + 60.00/h
Designer 40.00/h + 40.00/h
Developer 20.00/h + 20.00/h
Costing
now, if we manage to:
Estimate the effort per resource needed to
complete the project, by using the cost
table, we can estimate the project cost
(remember though:
hardware/software costs
Travel and training costs)
Cost estimate
uncertainty
Contractual terms
Requirements
volatility
Financial health
Estimation Techniques
Pricing to Win:
The software cost is estimated to be whatever the customer has available to spend on the
project. The estimated effort depends on the customers budget and not on the software
functionality.
Parkinsons law
work expands to fill the time available. The cost is determined by available resources rather
than by objective assessment. If the software has to be delivered in 12 months and 5 people
are available, the effort required is estimated to be 60 person-months.
Analogy
This technique is applicable when other projects in the same application domain have been
completed. The cost of a new project is estimated by analogy with these completed projects.
Myers (Myers 1989) gives a very clear description of this approach.
Expert Judgement
Several experts on the proposed software development techniques and the application
domain are consulted. They each estimate the project cost. These estimates are compared
and discussed. The estimation process iterates until an agreed estimate is reached.
Algorithmic cost modelling
A model based on historical cost information that relates some software metric (usually its
size) to the project cost is used. An estimate is made of that metric and the model predicts the
effort required.
Pricing to win
The project costs whatever the
customer has to spend on it.
Advantages:
You get the contract.
Disadvantages:
The probability that the customer gets
the system he or she wants is small.
Costs do not accurately reflect the work
required.
Pricing to win
This approach may seem unethical and
un-businesslike.
However, when detailed information is
lacking it may be the only appropriate
strategy.
The project cost is agreed on the basis of
an outline proposal and the development
is constrained by that cost.
A detailed specification may be negotiated
or an evolutionary approach used for
system development.
Estimation Techniques
Pricing to Win:
The software cost is estimated to be whatever the customer has available to spend on the
project. The estimated effort depends on the customers budget and not on the software
functionality.
Parkinsons law
work expands to fill the time available. The cost is determined by available resources rather
than by objective assessment. If the software has to be delivered in 12 months and 5 people
are available, the effort required is estimated to be 60 person-months.
Analogy
This technique is applicable when other projects in the same application domain have been
completed. The cost of a new project is estimated by analogy with these completed projects.
Myers (Myers 1989) gives a very clear description of this approach.
Expert Judgement
Several experts on the proposed software development techniques and the application
domain are consulted. They each estimate the project cost. These estimates are compared
and discussed. The estimation process iterates until an agreed estimate is reached.
Algorithmic cost modelling
A model based on historical cost information that relates some software metric (usually its
size) to the project cost is used. An estimate is made of that metric and the model predicts the
effort required.
Bottom-up
Start at the component level and estimate the
effort required for each component. Add these
efforts to reach a final estimate.
Top-down estimation
Usable without knowledge of the
system architecture and the
components that might be part of the
system.
Takes into account costs such as
integration, configuration
management and documentation.
Can underestimate the cost of
solving difficult low-level technical
problems.
Bottom-up estimation
Usable when the architecture of the
system is known and components
identified.
This can be an accurate method if
the system has been designed in
detail.
It may underestimate the costs of
system level activities such as
integration and documentation.
Estimation methods
Each method has strengths and
weaknesses.
Estimation should be based on several
methods.
If these do not return approximately the
same result, then you have insufficient
information available to make an estimate.
Some action should be taken to find out
more in order to make more accurate
estimates.
Pricing to win is sometimes the only
applicable method.
A rough Model
Team size
(# people)
/
Man-power needed
(man-month)
*
Personell costs
(euros/month)
Project length
(months)
Project Cost
(euros)
+%
Software productivity
A measure of the rate at which individual
engineers involved in software
development
produce software and associated
documentation.
Not quality-oriented although quality
assurance is a factor in productivity
assessment.
Essentially, we want to measure useful
functionality produced per time unit.
Productivity measures
Size related measures based on some
output from the software process.
This may be lines of delivered source
code, object code instructions, etc.
Function-related measures based on
an estimate of the functionality of the
delivered software. Function-points
are the best known of this type of
measure.
A rough Model
Team size
(# people)
Estimation of the size
of the system (LOC)
Productivity
(LOC/man-month)
/
Man-power needed
(man-month)
Personell costs
(euros/month)
Project length
(months)
Project Cost
(euros)
+%
Measurement problems
Estimating the size of the measure (e.g.
how many function points).
Estimating the total number of
programmer
months that have elapsed.
Estimating contractor productivity (e.g.
documentation team) and incorporating
this
estimate in overall estimate.
Lines of code
What's a line of code?
The measure was first proposed when programs were
typed on cards with one line per card;
How does this correspond to statements as in Java
which can span several lines or where there can be
several statements on one line.
Productivity comparisons
The lower level the language, the more
productive the programmer
The same functionality takes more code to
implement in a lower-level language than in a
high-level language.
Productivity Examples
Real-time embedded systems
40-160 LOC/P-month.
Systems programs
150-400 LOC/P-month.
Commercial applications
200-900 LOC/P-month.
Assembly code
High-level language
3 weeks
3 weeks
Design
Coding
Testing
5 weeks
5 weeks
8 weeks
4 weeks
10 weeks
6 weeks
Size
Effort
Productivity
5000 lines
1500 lines
28 weeks
20 weeks
714 lines/month
300 lines/month
Documentation
2 weeks
2 weeks
Function points
Based on a combination of program
characteristics
Function Points
ExtInp
ExtOut
UserInt
Unadjusted
Function
Count
0.65 + 0.01 *
Adjustement Factors
Adjusted
Function
Count
Function Points:
Adjustment Factors
The system requires reliable saves and
backups?
The system requires communication of
data?
Elaboration is distributed?
Performance is a critical factor?
The system will work on a well known
environment?
The system requires on-line data entry
Function points
C++
C
Lisp
Spreadsheet
36
128
64
6
Pascal
98
Quickbasic
58
Function Points
FPs are very subjective. They depend
on the estimator
Automatic function-point counting is
impossible.
Object points
Object points (alternatively named
application points) are an alternative
function-related measure to function
points when 4Gls or similar languages are
used for development.
Object points are NOT the same as object
classes.
The number of object points in a program
is a weighted estimate of
The number of separate screens that are displayed;
The number of reports that are produced by the system;
The number of program modules that must be
developed to supplement the database code;
Productivity estimates
In object points, productivity has
been measured between 4 and 50
object points/month depending on
tool support and developer
capability.
Process quality
Project size
Technology
support
Working
environment
Estimation techniques
There is no simple way to make an accurate
estimate of the effort required to develop a
software system
Initial estimates are based on inadequate information in
a user requirements definition;
The software may run on unfamiliar computers or use
new technology;
The people in the project may be unknown.
Changing technologies
Changing technologies may mean that previous
estimating experience does not carry over to new
systems
Distributed object systems rather than mainframe
systems;
Use of web services;
Use of ERP or database-centred systems;
Use of off-the-shelf software;
Development for and with reuse;
Development using scripting languages;
The use of CASE tools and program generators.
Estimation accuracy
The size of a software system can only be
known accurately when it is finished.
Several factors influence the final size
Use of COTS and components;
Programming language;
Distribution of system.
Estimate uncertainty
Example
Cost estimate of $1 million during the
requirements phase
Likely actual cost is in the range ($0.25M, $4M)
Cost estimate of $1 million in the middle of the
specification phase
Likely actual cost is in the range ($0.5M, $2M)
Cost estimate of $1 million end of the
specification phase (earliest appropriate time)
Likely actual cost is in the range ($0.67M,
$1.5M)
COCOMO 81
simple
small teams, familiar environment, well-understood applications, simple nonfunctional requirements (EASY)
PM = 2.4 (KDSI) 1.05
TDEV = 2.5 (PM) 0.38
moderate
Project team may have experience mixture, system may have more significant
non-functional constraints, organization may have less familiarity with
application (HARDER)
PM = 3 (KDSI) 1.12
TDEV = 2.5 (PM) 0.35
embedded Hardware/software systems
tight constraints, including local regulations and operational procedures;
unusual for team to have deep application experience (HARD)
PM = 3.6 (KDSI) 1.2
TDEV = 2.5 (PM) 0.32
COCOMO 81 Productivity
Person-months
1000
Embedded
800
600
Intermediate
400
Simple
200
20
40
60
KDSI
80
100
120
Example
Simple project , 32 KDSI
PM = 2.4 (32) 1.05 = 91 person*month
TDEV = 2.5 (91) 0.38
= 14 month
N = 91/14
= 6.5 person
Embedded project, 128 KDSI
PM = 3.6 (128)1.2 = 1216 person-months
TDEV = 2.5 (1216)0.32
= 24 months
N = 1216/24
= 51 persons
Effort (PM)
Effort (PM)
Durata (TDEV)
Numero persone
necessarie (N)
Numero persone
disponibili
Durata (TDEV)
Intermediate COCOMO
Takes basic COCOMO as starting point
Identifies personnel, product, computer
and project attributes which affect cost
Multiplies basic COCOMO cost (required
effort) by attribute multipliers which may
increase or decrease costs
Multipliers are assigned values in the
range [0.7, 1.66]
multiplier < 1 implies reduced cost
Personnel attributes
Analyst capability
Programmer capability
Programming language
experience
Application experience
Computer attributes
(i.e. constraints imposed on SW by the
adopted HW)
Execution time constraints
Memory space constraints
Project attributes
Modern programming practices
Product attributes
structured programming, when
Reliability requirement
COCOMO was defined;
O-O programming today
Database size
Software tools
Product complexity
Required development schedule
Mismatch between basic COCOMO
and Client schedule gives
Model tuning - Each organization must identify its own
attribute > 1
attributes and associated multiplier values
A statistically significant database of detailed
cost information is necessary
Example
Attributes:
RELY = 1.15,
STOR = 1.21,
TIME = 1.10,
TOOL = 1.10
COCOMO 2
COCOMO 81 was developed with the
assumption that a waterfall process
would be used and that all software
would be developed from scratch.
Since its formulation, there have been
many changes in software engineering
practice and COCOMO 2 is designed to
accommodate different approaches to
software development.
COCOMO 2 models
COCOMO 2 incorporates a range of submodels that produce increasingly detailed
software estimates.
The sub-models in COCOMO 2 are:
Application composition model. Used when
software is composed from existing parts.
Early design model. Used when requirements
are available but design has not yet started.
Reuse model. Used to compute the effort of
integrating reusable components.
Post-architecture model. Used once the
system architecture has been designed and
more information about the system is
available.
2x
Early Design
(13 parameters)
1.5x
1.25x
Relative
Size Range x
0.8x
Post-Architecture
(23 parameters)
0.67x
0.5x
Applications
Composition
(3 parameters)
0.25x
Feasibility
Plans
and
Rqts.
Detail
Design
Spec.
Product
Design
Spec.
Rqts.
Spec.
Concept of
Operation
Product
Design
Detail
Design
Accepted
Software
Devel.
and Test
Developers experience
and capability
Very low
Low
Nominal
High
Very high
Very low
Low
Nominal
High
Very high
PROD (NOP/month)
13
25
50
Multipliers
Multipliers reflect the capability of the
developers, the non-functional
requirements, the familiarity with the
development platform, etc.
Post-architecture level
Uses the same formula as the early design
model but with 17 rather than 7 associated
multipliers.
The code size is estimated as:
Number of lines of new code to be developed;
Estimate of equivalent number of lines of new
code computed using the reuse model;
An estimate of the number of lines of code that
have to be modified according to requirements
changes.
Development
flexibility
Architecture/risk
resolution
Reflects the extent of risk analysis carried out. Very low means little
analysis, Extra high means a complete a thorough risk analysis.
Team cohesion
Reflects how well the development team know each other and work
together. Very low means very difficult interactions, Extra high
means an integrated and effective team with no communication
problems.
Process maturity
Multipliers
Product attributes
Concerned with required characteristics of the
software product being developed.
Computer attributes
Constraints imposed on the software by the
hardware platform.
Personnel attributes
Multipliers that take the experience and
capabilities of the people working on the project
into account.
Project attributes
Concerned with the particular characteristics of
the software development project.
Reliability
Complexity
Memory constraint
Tool use
Schedule
Adjusted COCOMO estimate
System objectives:
fcny, perf., quality
COCOMO 2.0
Corporate parameters:
tools, processes, reuse
Cost,
Sched,
Risks
Ok?
Yes
System objectives:
fcny, perf., quality
COCOMO 2.0
Corporate parameters:
tools, processes, reuse
Cost,
Sched,
Risks
Ok?
Yes
Execute
project
to next
Milestone
M/S
Results
Milestone plans,
resources
Milestone expectations
Revise
Milestones,
Plans,
Resources
No
Ok?
Revised
Expectations
Yes
Done?
Yes
End
No
System objectives:
fcny, perf., quality
COCOMO 2.0
Corporate parameters:
tools, processes, reuse
Cost,
Sched,
Risks
Ok?
Yes
Execute
project
to next
Milestone
M/S
Results
Milestone plans,
resources
Milestone expectations
No
Ok?
Revised
Expectations
Yes
Recalibrate
COCOMO 2.0
Accumulate
COCOMO 2.0
calibration
data
Revise
Milestones,
Plans,
Resources
Done?
Yes
End
No
System objectives:
fcny, perf., quality
COCOMO 2.0
Corporate parameters:
tools, processes, reuse
Improved
Corporate
Parameters
Ok?
Yes
M/S
Results
Milestone plans,
resources
Cost, Sched,
Quality drivers
Evaluate
Corporate
SW
Improvement
Strategies
Cost,
Sched,
Risks
Execute
project
to next
Milestone
Milestone expectations
No
Ok?
Revised
Expectations
Yes
Recalibrate
COCOMO 2.0
Accumulate
COCOMO 2.0
calibration
data
Revise
Milestones,
Plans,
Resources
Done?
Yes
End
No
Project planning
Algorithmic cost models provide a basis
for
project planning as they allow alternative
strategies to be compared.
Example: Embedded spacecraft system
Requirements
Must be reliable;
Must minimise weight (number of chips);
Multipliers on reliability and computer constraints >
1.
Cost components
Target hardware;
Development platform;
Development effort.
Management options
Option
RELY
STOR
TIME
TOOLS
LTEX
A
B
1.39
1.39
1.06
1
1.11
1
0.86
1.12
1
1.22
63
88
C
D
E
F
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1
1.06
1
1
1.11
1.11
1
1
0.86
0.86
0.72
1.12
1
0.84
1.22
0.84
60
51
56
57
Total cost
949393
1313550
Hardware
cost
100000
120000
895653
769008
844425
851180
105000
100000
220000
120000
1000653
897490
1044159
1002706
1049393
1402025
Option choice
Option D (use more experienced staff)
appears to be the best alternative
However, it has a high associated risk as
experienced staff may be difficult to find.
Staffing requirements
The time required is independent of the number
of people working on the project.
Staff required cant be computed by diving the
development time by the required schedule.
The number of people working on a project varies
depending on the phase of the project.
The more people who work on the project, the
more total effort is usually required.
A very rapid build-up of people often correlates
with schedule slippage.
Key points
There is not a simple relationship between
the price charged for a system and its
development costs.
Factors affecting productivity include
individual aptitude, domain experience,
the development project, the project size,
tool support and the working environment.
Software may be priced to gain a contract
and the functionality adjusted to the price.
Key points
Different techniques of cost estimation
should be used when estimating costs.
The COCOMO model takes project, product,
personnel and hardware attributes into
account when predicting effort required.
Algorithmic cost models support
quantitative option analysis as they allow the
costs of different options to be compared.
The time to complete a project is not
proportional to the number of people
working on the project.