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4.1 Probability

The document defines key probability concepts like experiments, outcomes, sample space, events, and probability. It provides examples of calculating probability for coin tosses, dice rolls, and picking marbles from a bag. Probability is a ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes, and provides a statistical prediction rather than a definite outcome. While outcomes may vary in any given experiment, the long-term average is expected to approach the predicted probability.

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Ahmed F. Ashour
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53 views5 pages

4.1 Probability

The document defines key probability concepts like experiments, outcomes, sample space, events, and probability. It provides examples of calculating probability for coin tosses, dice rolls, and picking marbles from a bag. Probability is a ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes, and provides a statistical prediction rather than a definite outcome. While outcomes may vary in any given experiment, the long-term average is expected to approach the predicted probability.

Uploaded by

Ahmed F. Ashour
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability

Howlikelysomethingistohappen.
Manyeventscan'tbepredictedwithtotalcertainty.Thebestwecansayishowlikely
theyaretohappen,usingtheideaofprobability.

TossingaCoin
Whenacoinistossed,therearetwopossibleoutcomes:
heads(H)or

tails(T)
WesaythattheprobabilityofthecoinlandingHis.
AndtheprobabilityofthecoinlandingTis.

ThrowingDice
Whenasingle die isthrown,therearesixpossibleoutcomes:1,
2,3,4,5,6.
Theprobabilityofanyoneofthemis1/6.

Probability
Ingeneral:

Probabilityofaneventhappening=

Numberofwaysitcanhappen
Totalnumberofoutcomes

Example:thechancesofrollinga"4"withadie
Numberofwaysitcanhappen:1(thereisonly1facewitha"4"onit)
Totalnumberofoutcomes:6(thereare6facesaltogether)

Sotheprobability=

1
6

Example:thereare5marblesinabag:4areblue,and1isred.
Whatistheprobabilitythatabluemarblegetspicked?
Numberofwaysitcanhappen:4(thereare4blues)
Totalnumberofoutcomes:5(thereare5marblesintotal)

Sotheprobability=

4
5

=0.8

Probability Line
Wecanshowprobabilityona ProbabilityLine :

Probabilityisalwaysbetween0and1

Probability is Just a Guide

Probabilitydoesnottellusexactlywhatwillhappen,itisjustaguide

Example:tossacoin100times,howmanyHeadswillcomeup?
Probabilitysaysthatheadshaveachance,sowecanexpect50Heads.
Butwhenweactuallytryitwemightget48heads,or55heads...oranything
really,butinmostcasesitwillbeanumbernear50.

Learnmoreat ProbabilityIndex .

Words
SomewordshavespecialmeaninginProbability:

ExperimentorTrial:anactionwheretheresultisuncertain.

Tossingacoin,throwingdice,seeingwhatpizzapeoplechooseareallexamplesof
experiments.

SampleSpace:allthepossibleoutcomesofanexperiment

Example:choosingacardfromadeck
Thereare52cardsinadeck(notincludingJokers)
SotheSampleSpaceisall52possiblecards:{AceofHearts,2ofHearts,
etc...}

TheSampleSpaceismadeupofSamplePoints:

SamplePoint:justoneofthepossibleoutcomes

Example:DeckofCards
the5ofClubsisasamplepoint
theKingofHeartsisasamplepoint
"King"isnotasamplepoint.Asthereare4Kingsthatis4differentsample
points.

Event:asingleresultofanexperiment

ExampleEvents:
GettingaTailwhentossingacoinisanevent
Rollinga"5"isanevent.
Aneventcanincludeoneormorepossibleoutcomes:
Choosinga"King"fromadeckofcards(anyofthe4Kings)isan
event
Rollingan"evennumber"(2,4or6)isalsoanevent

TheSampleSpaceisallpossibleoutcomes.

ASamplePointisjustonepossibleoutcome.
AndanEventcanbeoneormoreofthepossible
outcomes.

Hey,let'susethosewords,soyougetusedtothem:

Example:Alexwantstoseehowmanytimes
a"double"comesupwhenthrowing2dice.
EachtimeAlexthrowsthe2diceisanExperiment.
ItisanExperimentbecausetheresultisuncertain.

TheEventAlexislookingforisa"double",wherebothdicehavethesame
number.Itismadeupofthese6SamplePoints:
{1,1}{2,2}{3,3}{4,4}{5,5}and{6,6}

TheSampleSpaceisallpossibleoutcomes(36SamplePoints):
{1,1}{1,2}{1,3}{1,4}...{6,3}{6,4}{6,5}{6,6}

TheseareAlex'sResults:

Experiment

Isita
Double?

{3,4}

No

{5,1}

No

{2,2}

Yes

{6,3}

No

...

...

After100Experiments,Alexhas19"double"Events...isthatclosetowhat
youwouldexpect?

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