Homework 0: DUE Monday Jan 9th, 11:45pm Electronically
Homework 0: DUE Monday Jan 9th, 11:45pm Electronically
Winter 2012
University of Washington
Dept. of Electrical Engineering
Problem 1. Uncertain Seattle Weather (4 points) Lets assume that we have at hand the historical
data regarding Seattles weather patterns: Specifically the days when its cloudy and clear. Assume that
the given data consists of 60 days each from Autumn, Winter, Spring, and Summer sampled uniformly at
random from the historical data along with the observed weather on each of these days. The data shows that
it was cloudy on 30 of the days in Autumn, clear on 10 of the days in Winter, cloudy on 40 of the days in
Spring and cloudy on 10 of the days in Summer.
Problem 1(a) We want to infer probabilities from the observed data. Begin, by describing the sample
space. Next, define the random variables associated with the problem. What probabilities can be inferred
from the given data, also describe why your probability estimates might make sense.
Problem 1(b) Based on your estimated probabilities, compute the following: If it was given that it
was cloudy on any particular day, what is the probability that it was a wintry day in Seattle. Also compute
the probability of it being spring.
Problem 1(c) Now assume that we are also given historical data concerning clear/cloudy sky in Death
valley. Of the 60 sampled days, it is observed that there was 1 cloudy day. Compute the probability that
it was cloudy in both Seattle and in Death valley given that it was a wintry day in Seattle. Specify any
assumptions made in your computation.
Problem 1(d) Finally, assume that of 50 years sampled at random, there were 20 years with more than
200 cloudy days but less than 220 cloudy days, 30 years with more than 220 cloudy days but less than 240
cloudy days. In any given year, what is an estimate for the expected number of cloudy days in Seattle.
2
Problem 2(b) GM-HM Inequality For any a1 , a2 , . . . , an > 0 show that:
n
Y
!1
ai
n
Pn
1
i=1 ai
i=1
Population Standard deviation. That is the sample standard deviation in expectation is always an underestimator of the population standard deviation.
1
H(X).
d