MATH F113 - Chapter-3 PDF

BITS Pilani
presentation
BITS Pilani
Pilani Campus
Dr RAKHEE
Department of Mathematics
MATH F111 & AAOC C111

Probability and Statistics
BITS Pilani
Pilani Campus
BITS Pilani
Pilani Campus
Chapter 3
Discrete Distribution
Random variables
Random variables are variables
whose values are determined by a
chance.
(This can be thought as a sample
space of a random experiment
whose
outcomes
are
real
numbers).
BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
Random variables
The outcomes of random experiment may be
numerical or non-numerical (descriptive).
For example, when we throw a die, we get
the outcomes as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 which is a
numerical value, whereas when we toss a
coin we get either a head or a tail. This is a
non-numerical values. Instead of dealing the
non-numerical values, we can assign some
numerical value to them, say 1 for head and
0 for tail.
Random Variable
Random variable is a real valued function
which maps the numerical or nonnumerical sample space (domain) of the
random experiment to a real values (co
domain or range)
It should be mapped such that an
outcome of an event should correspond
to only one real value.
Random Variable
Random variable is a real valued function
which is also a single valued function and
not a multi-valued.
That means it can be one-to- one or manyto-one but never be one-to-many mapping.
Example
Suppose that we toss three coins and
consider the sample space associated with
the experiment
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
X: number of tails obtained in the toss
of three coins
Hence, X(HHH) = 0, X(TTT) = 3,
X(THT) = 2, X(HTT) = 2, X(TTH) = 2,
X(THH) = 1, X(HHT) = 1, X(HTH) = 1
Random Variable
Definition:
Let E be a random
experiment and S a sample space
associated with it. A function X assigning
to every element s S, a real number
X(s) is called random variable. Though,
X is a function yet we call it a random
variable. S
X
X(s)
s
Generally random variables are

denoted by capital letters X, Y, Z etc
or X1, X2 etc. whereas their possible
values
are
denoted
by
the
corresponding lower case letters x, y,
z or x1, x2 etc. respectively.
Random variable
Examples
Let E be the experiment of rolling two fair
dice Let X be the random variable that is
defined as the sum of numbers shown then
X takes values 2, 3, 4,, 10, 11, 12
P[X=2]= P[(1,1)] = 1/36
P[X=3]= P[(2,1),(1,2)] = 2/36
P[X=4]= P[(2,2),(3,1),(1,3)] = 3/36
P[X=5]= P[(2,3),(3,2),(1,4),(4,1)] =
4/36
P[X=11]= P[6,5),(5,6)] = 2/36

P[X=12]= P[6,6)] = 1/36
Example
Let Z = the time of peak demand for
electricity at a power plant. Time is measured
continuously, and Z can conceivably assume
any value in the interval [0,24),
0: means mid night one day
24: means 12 mid night next day.
In this case, the set of real numbers is neither
finite nor countably infinite and hence Z is not
discrete random varable.
Example
The random variable denoting the

life time of a car, when the cars
lifetime is assumed to take on any
value in some interval [a, c]. So
this is not discrete r.v.
Section 3.1 (page no 81)

T : the turnaround time for a computer
job
-- not discrete random variable
M : the number of meteorites hitting a
satellite per day.
-- discrete random variable
The uncertain behavior of the

random variable is predicted by:
(i) Probability density function f(x)
(ii) Cumulative distribution
function F(x)
Discrete Probability Density

Definition : The density function of a
discrete random variable X is defined
by
f(x) = P(X=x) for all real x.
From the density, one can evaluate the

probability of any subset A of real
numbers (i.e. event):
P ( A) =
f ( x)
x A is a value of X
Conversely if we are given probabilities of

all events of a discrete random variable,
we get a Density function.
The necessary and sufficient

condition for a function f to be a
discrete density function :
f ( x ) 0 for all x and
f ( x) = 1
all x
The
cumulative
distribution
function F of a discrete random
variable X, is defined by
F(x) = P(X x) =
f(k)
kx
for any real number x, here f

denote the density of X.
The density and cumulative

distribution function determine
each other.
If random variable takes integer
values then
f(n) = F(n)-F(n-1).
distribution
function) of a discrete random variable
X then
is
CDF
(cumulative
P(a < X c ) = P( X c) - P(X a)

= F(c) F(a)
as set of all x such that X a is subset
of set of all x such that X c.
Cumulative distribution function of a

discrete random variable is a step
function, its values change at points
where density is positive.
Note : F(x) is non-decreasing and
lim F ( x) = 0 ,
lim F ( x) = 1
x
Exercise : Given that f(x)= k/(2x), x=0, 1, 2,

3 and 4 for a density function of a random
variable taking only these values, find k.
Exercise : Given that f(x) = k /(2x) x=0, 1,
2, 3,- - - for a density function of a random
variable taking only these values
(a) Find k. (b) Find P( 3 < X < 100).
(c) The cumulative distribution function of
X.
Tabular way of defining density (pdf):

Can tabulate values of density at points
where it is nonzero.
Tabular way of defining cumulative
distribution function (cdf): Can tabulate
values of F(x) where steps change.
Exercise 8
The density for X, the number
be drilled per bit while drilling
given by the following table :
x
1
2
3
4
5
f(x) 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.2 0.4
of holes that can

into limestone is
6
0.2
7
8
0.07 ?
(i) Find f(8),

(ii) Find the table for F(x).
(iii) Use F to find the probability that a
randomly selected bit can be used to drill
between three and five holes inclusive.
Example
If CDF F(x) for a r.v. is given as
x
-1
1/3
1/2 2/3 1
F (x) 0.1 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.5 0.8
3
1.0
(i)Find probability density function f(x)

for all x
(ii) Find P(2 < X 3) & P(2 X < 3)
(iii)Find F(-2) & F(4)
(iv)Find P(X < 3) & P(X > 0)
-1
F(x)
0.1 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0
(i)
1/3
1/3
1/2 2/3 1
-1
1/2
2/3
f(x)
0.1 0.2 0.05 0.05 0.1
0.3 0.2
f(x) = 0 at all other real number x

-1
1/3
1/2 2/3 1
F(x)
0.1 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0
(iii) Find F(-2) & F(4)
F(-2)=0 & F(4)=1

(iv) Find P(X<3) & P(X>0)
P(X< 3)= 0.8
P(X>0) = 1-P(X0)= 1-F(0)= 1-0.3
Exercise 10 :
It is known that the probability of being able to
log on to a computer from a remote terminal at
any given time is 0.7. Let X denote the number
of attempts that must be made to gain access to
the computer.
(a)Find the first 4 terms of the density table.
(b)Find a closed form expression for f(x).
(c)Find a closed form expression for F(x).
(d)Use F to find the probability that at most 4
attempts are required to access the computer.
Expectation
The density function of a random variable
completely describe the behavior of the
random variable.
Random variables can also be characterized
by the knowledge of numerical values of
three parameters, Mean(), Variance (2)
and Standared deviation ().
Example
Consider the roll of a single fair die,
and X denote the number that is obtain.
The possible values for X are 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6, and since the die is fair, the
probability associated with each value
is 1/6. So the density function for X is
given by
1
f ( x) = ,
6
x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
When we repeat the rolling over and over

and recording the values of X in each roll,
We ask what is the theoretical average value
of the rolls as the number of rolls
approaches infinity. Since the density is
symmetric and is known, this average can
be found intuitively.
As, P[X = 1] = P[X = 6] = 1/6, the average
value is (1 + 6)/2 = 3.5
Similarly, P[X = 2] = P[X = 5] = 1/6, the

average value is (2 + 5)/2 = 3.5
In long run, 3.5 dictates the average
value.
So we write it as E[X] = 3.5
Expectations
Definition : Let X be a discrete random
variable and H(X) be a function of X. Then
the expected value of H(X), denoted by
E(H(X)), is defined by
E ( H ( X )) =
H ( x) f ( x)
x any value of X
Where f(x) is density of X provided
| H ( x) | f ( x) is finite
x
Notes :
1) E[H(X)] can be interpreted as the weighted
average value of H(X).
2) If all x|H(x)|f(x) diverges then E[H(X)] does not
exist
irrespective
of
convergence
of
all xH(x)f(x), see Ex. 22.
3) E[X] measures average value of X and is
called the mean of X and denoted by X or
4) Distribution is scattered around . Thus it
indicates location of center of values of X and
hence called a location parameter.
Variance and Standard

Deviation
Variability is not being measured by the
mean.
Parameter must reflects consistency or
the lack of it.
The measure a large (small) positive
values if the random variable fluctuates
in the sense that it often assumes
values far (closer) from its mean.
Variance and Standard deviation

Definition : If a discrete random
variable X has mean , its variance
Var(X) or 2 is defined by
Var(X) = E[(X-)2].
The standard deviation is the
nonnegative square root of Var(X).
Notes :
1) Note that Var(X) is always nonnegative, if it
exists.
2) Variance measures the dispersion or variability
of X. It is large if values of X away from have
large probability, i.e. values of X are more likely
to be spread. This indicates inconsistency or
instability of random variable.
Properties of Mean
Theorem : If X is a random variable and c is a
real number then :
E[c] = c and E[cX] = cE[X].
Proof : E[c] = c f(x) = c f(x) = c(1) = c.
E[cX] = c xf (x) = c xf (x)= cE[X].
Ex.: Prove for reals a, b, E[aX + b] = aE[X] + b.
Properties of Variance
Theorem : Var [X] = E[X2] (E[X])2.
Theorem : For a real number c,
Var [c] = 0 and Var [cX] = c2Var[X].
Exercise 15 : The density for X, the number of

holes that can be drilled per bit while drilling into
limestone is given by the following table :
x
f(x) 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.2
0.4
0.2
0.07 0.03
Find E[X], E[X2], Var[X], X. Find the unit of

X .
Example : Let X be random

variable with density function
(1 / 3) ( 2 / 3), x = 1,2,3....
f ( x) =
0, otherwise
x 1
Find E(X).
Sol.
(1 / 3) (2 / 3), x = 1,2,3....
f ( x) =
0, otherwise
x 1
Section 3.3, page 84, 17

The probability of being able to log on
to a computer from a remote terminal at
any given time is 0.7. Let X denote the
number of attempts that must be made
to gain access to the computer. Find
E[X]. Can you express E[X] in terms of
p?
Section 3.3, page 84, 22

Consider the function f defined by
1 | x|
f ( x) = 2 , x = 1, 2, 3,...
2
a) Verify that this is the density function for a
discrete r.v.
b) Let
2| x |
g ( x) = (1)
| x|1
.
2 | x | 1
show that g(x) f(x) <

c)
c) Show that
converges.
|g(x)| f(x) does not
Ordinary Moments : For any positive integer

k, the kth ordinary moment of a discrete random
variable X with density f(x) is defined to be
E[Xk].
Thus for k = 1 we get mean. Using 1st and 2nd
ordinary moment, we can evaluate variance.
There is a tool, moment generating function
(m.g.f) which helps to evaluate all ordinary
moments in one go.
Moment generating function

Definition: Let X be any random
variable with density f. The m.g.f. for
X is denoted by mX(t) and is given by
m X (t ) = E[e ]
tX
provided the expectation is finite for all

real numbers t in some open interval
(-h, h).
Theorem 3.4.2: If mX(t) is the m.g.f. for a

random variable X, then
k
d m X (t )
k
dt
k
= E[ X ]
t =0
Proof : e
tX
= 1 + tX + t X / 2!+... + t X / n!+...
2
Hence m X (t ) = E[e ]
tX
m X (t ) = E[1 + tX + t X / 2!+... + t X / n!+...]

2
m X (t ) = 1 + tE[ X ] + t E[ X ] / 2!+... + t E[ X ] / n!+...

2
Differentiating k times,
k
d m X (t )
k
k +1
nk
n
=
E
X
+
tE
X
+
+
t
E
X
[
]
[
]
...
[
] / k!+...
k
dt
Now put t = 0 to get the result.
Section 3.4 page no. 87, 31

Consider the random variable X whose density
is given by:
( x 3)
f ( x) =
,
5
2
x = 3, 4, 5
a) Verify that this function is a density for a

discrete random variable.
b) Find E[X] directly. That is evaluate all x xf(x).

c) Find moment generating function for X.
d) Use m.g.f. to find E[X]
e) Find E[X2] directly.
f) Use m.g.f. to find E[X2]
g) Find 2 and .
Bernoulli trials
A trial which has exactly 2 possible
outcomes, success s and failure f, is
called Bernoulli trial.
For any random experiment, if we are
only interested in occurrence or not of a
particular event, we can treat it as
Bernoulli trial.
Thus if we toss a dice but are interested
in whether top face has even number or
not, we can treat it as a Bernoulli trial.
Geometric distribution
If we perform a series of identical and
independent trials,
X = number of trials required to get the
first success is a discrete random
variable, which is known as geometric
random variable.
Its probability distribution is called
Geometric distribution.
Sample space of this experiment is

S = {s, fs, ffs, fffs, }.
Probability of success on any trial = p is
same.
P ( X = i ) = (1 p )
i 1
p for i = 1,2,...
In fact the function f is called the density of a

geometric distribution with parameter p for
0 < p < 1, if
(1 p ) x 1 p; x = 1,2,3,..
f ( x) =
0;
otherwise.
(Verify it is a density of a discrete random variable)
We write q = 1- p.
Then c.d.f. of geometric distribution is

F(x) = 1 - q[x] for any real x > 0
and F(x) = 0 otherwise.
Theorem 3.4.1
The m.g.f. of geometric random
variable with parameter p, 0 < p < 1, is
t
pe
m X (t ) =
;
for
t
ln
q
;
<
t
1 qe
where q = 1 p.
Proof:
The density of a geometric distribution
q x 1 p;
f ( x) =
0;
By def.
x = 1,2,3,..
otherwise.
m X (t ) = E[e ] = e f ( x) = pq
tX
tx
x =1
(qe )
t x
x =1
The series on the right is a geometric series

with first term qet, common ratio qet.
pe
m X (t ) =
; where q = 1 p.
t
1 qe
Provided | r | < | qet | < 1.
Since
the
exponential
function
is
nonnegative and 0 < q < 1, this restriction
implies that (qet) < 1, implies that et < (1/q)
1
ln(e ) < ln , t < (ln 1 ln q ) t < ln q
q
t
Theorem 3.4.3
Let X be a geometric random variable with

parameter p. Then
1
q
and Var[ X ] = 2 .
E[ X ] =
p
p
Proof
t
pe
m X (t ) =
; where q = 1 p.
t
1 qe
t
d
pe
m X (t ) =
2
t
dt
1 qe
1
p
d
=
E[ X ] = m X (t ) t =0 =
2
dt
(1 q ) p
Now take the second derivative at t = 0
d
pe (1 + qe )
=
m
(
t
)
X
3
2
t
dt
1 qe
2
p (1 + q ) (1 + q )
d
=
E[ X ] = 2 m X (t ) t =0 =
3
2
dt
p
(1 q )
2
1
(1 + q )
2
E[ X ] =
and E[ X ] =
2
p
p
Thus,
(1 + q ) 1
q
Var[ X ] =
2 = 2
2
p
p
p
Expectation of Geometric r.v.

by Definition
x =1
x =1
E[ X ] = xf ( x) = xpq
= p xq
x 1
x 1
= p 1 + 2q + 3q + 4q + ...
2
x =1
Sum of AGP is
S = 1+ 2q + 3q + 4q + . ..
2
qS =
q + 2q + 3q + . ..
2
(1 q ) S = 1+ q + q + q + . ..
1
S=
2
(1 q )
2
1
=
E[ X ] = p
2
(1 q )
1 1
p 2 =
p p
E[ X ] = x f ( x) = x pq
2
x =1
x 1
x =1
= p x q
2
x 1
= p 1 + 4q + 9q + 16q + ...
2
x =1
1+ q
=
= p
3
(1 q)
1+ q 1+ q
p 3 = 2
p
p
Var[ X ] = E[ X ] E[ X ]
2
1+ q 1 q
= 2 = 2
p
p p
Exercise 25
The zinc phosphate coating on the threads of
steel tubes used in oil and gas wells is critical
to their performance. To monitor the coating
process, an uncoated metal sample with known
outside area is weighed and treated along with
the lot of tubing. This sample is then stripped
and reweighed. From this it is possible to
determine whether or not the proper amount of
coating was applied to the tubing.
Assume that the probability that a given lot is

unacceptable is 0.05. Let X denote the
number of runs conducted to produce an
unacceptable lot. Assume that the runs are
independent in the sense that the outcome of
one run has no effect on that of any other.
Verify X is geometric. What is success? p =?
What is density, E[X], E[X2], 2? m.g.f.? Find
the probability that the number of runs
required to produce an unacceptable lot is at
least 3.
Example
In a Video game the player attempts to
capture a treasure lying behind one of
five doors. The location of treasure
varies randomly in such a way that at
any given time it is just as likely to be
behind one door as any other. When
the player knocks on a given door, the
treasure is his if it lies behind that door.
Otherwise he must return to his original

starting point and approach the doors
through a dangerous maze again. If the
treasure is captured, the game ends. Let X
be the number of trials needed to capture
the treasure. Find the average number of
trials needed to capture the treasure. Find
P(X 3) and P(X > 3).
Binomial Distribution
Let an experiment consist of fixed number
n of Bernoulli trials.
Assume all trials are identical and
independent.
Thus p = probability of success is same for
each trial.
X = number of successes in these n trials.
What is P(X = x)?
Example
Consider a case in which n = 3 then its the
sample space is
S = {fff, sff, fsf, ffs, ssf, sfs, fss, sss}
Since trials are independent, the probability
assigned to each sample point is found by
multiplying. For instance the probability
assigned to the sample points are as follows:
(1-p)(1-p)(1-p) = (1-p)3 and p(1-p)(1-p) = p(1-p)2
The r. v. X assumes the value 0 only if the

experiment result in the outcome fff. That is,
P[X = 0] = (1- p)3
However, X assumes the value 1 if the any
one of the outcome is success (sff, fsf, ffs),
then
P[X = 1] = 3(1- p)2
Similarly, P[X = 2] = 3(1- p)2 and P[X = 3] = p3
It is evident that x = 0, 1, 2, 3
P[X = x] = c(x) px(1-p)3-x
3
where c( x) =
x
3 x
3 x
f ( x) =
p
p
(
1
)
x

A discrete random variable X has binomial

distribution with parameters n and p, n is a
positive integer and 0 < p < 1, if its density
function is
n x
n
x
; x = 0,1,2,..., n
p (1 p)
f ( x) = x
0
otherwise.
(Verify it is density, use binomial theorem).

Theorem: Let X be a binomial

random
variable
with
parameters n and p. Then
1) The m.g.f. of X is
t
n
m X (t ) = (q + pe ) with q = 1 p.
2) E[ X ] = np and
Var[ X ] = npq.
Proof :
n x
n x tx
1) m X (t) = E[e ] = p (1 p ) e
x =0 x
n
n
n x
t x
= (1 p ) ( pe )
x =0 x
n
tX
= (q + pe ) where q = 1 p.
t n
2) m X (t ) = (q + pe t ) n .
dm X (t )
t
t n 1
= npe (q + pe )
Thus E[X] =
t =0
dt t =0
= np (q + p ) = np.
t n 1
d m X (t )
d [npe (q + pe ) ]
=
Also E[ X ] =
2
dt
dt
t =0
t =0
2
t n2
= [n(n 1) p e (q + pe )
2 2t
t n 1
+ npe (q + pe ) ]
t
t =0
= n(n 1) p (q + p) + np = n(n 1) p + np.

Thus
2
Var[ X ] = E[ X 2 ] E[ X ]2 = n 2 p 2 + np np 2 n 2 p 2
= np(1 p) = npq.
Expectation of Bionimal r.v. by

Definition
n x
n x
E[X] = x p (1 p)
x =0 x
n
n!
x n x
p q
=x
x!(n x)!
x =0
n
n!
x n x
p q
=x
x( x 1)!(n x)!
x =0
n!
x n x
E[X] =
p q
x = 0 ( x 1)!( n x )!
Since the term x = 0 is zero
n(n 1)!
x 1 ( n 1) ( x 1)
E[X] =
pp q
x =1 ( x 1)!(( n 1) ( x 1))!
n 1
Let s = x - 1 and x assumes value 1 to n, therefore

s assumes value 0 to n - 1
n(n 1)!
s n 1 s
pp q
E[X] =
s = 0 s!( n 1 s )!
n 1
n(n 1)!
s n 1 s
E[X] =
pp q
s = 0 s!( n 1 s )!
n 1
n 1 s ( n 1) s
p q
= np
s =0 s
n 1
n 1
= np ( p + q ) = np ( p + 1 p ) = np
n 1
Expectation of X2 by Definition
n x
n x
E[X ] = x p (1 p)
x =0
x
n
n!
x n x
p q
= [ x( x 1) + x]
x!(n x)!
x =0
n
n!
x n x
p q
= x( x 1)
x!(n x)!
x =0
n
n!
x n x
p q
+x
x!(n x)!
x =0
n!
x n x
E[X ] =
p q + np
x = 0 ( x 2)!( n x )!
2
Since the term x = 0 and x = 1 are zero,

n(n 1)(n 2)!
2 x 2 ( n 2 ) ( x 2 )
E[X] =
p p q
+ np
x = 2 ( x 2)!(( n 2) ( x 2))!
n 1
Let s = x - 2 and x assumes value 2 to n, therefore

s assumes value 0 to n - 2
n(n 1)(n 2)! 2 s n 2 s

E[X ] =
p pq
+ np
s = 0 s!( n 2 s )!
n2
n(n 1)(n 2)! 2 s n 2 s

p pq
E[X ] =
s = 0 s!( n 2 s )!
n2
n 2 s ( n2) s
p q
= n(n 1) p
+ np
s =0 s
n2
2
= n(n 1) p ( p + q ) + np
n 1
= n(n 1) p ( p + 1 p )
2
= n(n 1) p + np
n2
+ np
Var(X) by definition
Var[ X ] = E[ X ] E[ X ]
2
= n(n 1) p + np (np )
2
= np np = np (1 p ) = npq
2
c.d.f. of binomial distribution

It is difficult to write explicit formula.
So values are given in Table I App. A,
p. 687-691.
From c.d.f., we can find density

f(x)= F(x) - F(x-1) if x = 0, 1, 2,, n.
P(a X b) = F(b) - F(a-1) for
integers a, b.
Example 3.5.3
Let X represent the number of signals properly
identified in a 30 minute time period in which 10
signals are received. Assuming that any signal is
identified
with
probability
p=1/2
and
identification of signals is independent of each
other.
(i) Find the probability that at most seven signals
are identified correctly.
(ii) Find the probability that at most 7 and at least
2 signals are identified correctly.
i) *----*-----*-----*----*----*----*----*------------0
Here, P[X 7] = 0.9453 includes the

Probability associated with 0 and 1
10
n = 10, p = 0.5 and look at the table

(in row 8, column labeled 0.5 for F, we will
see the value is 0.9453).
(ii) ----------*---*--*--*--*--*----------------0
10
Thus, P[2 X 7] = P[X 7] P[X < 2]

= P[X 7] P[X 1]
= F(7) F(1)
P[2 X 7] = 0.945 0.011 = 0.934

Section 3.4, page no 90, 45

Assume that an experiment is conducted and
that the outcome is considered to be either a
success or a failure. Let p denote the
probability of success. Define X to be 1 if the
experiment is a success and 0 if it is a
failure. X is said to have a point binomial
distribution {Bernoulli distribution) with
parameter p.
i) Argue that X is a binomial random variable
with n = 1.
ii) Find the density of X.

iii) Find the moment generating function for X.
iv) Find mean and variance of X.
v) In DNA replication error can occur that are
chemically induced. Some of these errors
are silent in that they do not lead to an
observable mutation. Growing bacteria are
exposed to a chemical that has probability
0.14 of inducing an observable error. Let X
be 1 if an observable mutation results and
let X be 0 otherwise. Find E[X].
Sampling with replacement

If we choose randomly with replacement
a sample of n objects from N objects of
which r are favorable and X = number of
favorable objects in the sample chosen
then X has binomial distribution with
parameters n and p = r/N.
Example
From a usual pack of 52 cards, 10 cards
are picked randomly with replacement.
Find the probability that they will contain
at least 4 and at most 7 spades. Identify
Bernoulli trials and success and random
variable X together with its distribution.
n = 10, p = 13/52 = 0.25.
Required probability = F(7) - F(3)
n x
10 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
.01
0.90438
0.99573
0.99989
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
.05
0.59874
0.91386
0.98850
0.99897
0.99994
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
p
.10
0.34868
0.73610
0.92981
0.98720
0.99837
0.99985
0.99999
1.00000
1.00000
.15
0.19687
0.54430
0.82020
0.95003
0.99013
0.99862
0.99987
0.99999
1.00000
.20
0.10737
0.37581
0.67780
0.87913
0.96721
0.99363
0.99914
0.99992
1.00000
.25
0.05631
0.24403
0.52559
0.77588
0.92187
0.98027
0.99649
0.99958
0.99997
Required probability = F(7) - F(3)

= 0.99958 - 0.77588 (By tables)
= 0.22370
Hypergeometric distribution
If
we
are
choosing
without
replacement a sample of size n from N
objects of which r are favorable, and
X = number of favorable objects in the
sample, then
r N r

x n x
P[ X = x] =
N

n
if max[0, n - (N - r)] x min(n, r) and 0 otherwise.

N objects
r have trait (success)
n objects
(N - r) do not have trait (failure)
Properties:
The experiment consists of drawing a
random sample of size
n without
replacement and without regard to order
from a collection of N objects.
Of the N objects, r have a trait of interest
to us; the other (N r) do not have the
trait.
The random variable X is the number of
objects in the sample with the trait.
Definition: A random variable X with integer

values has a hypergeometric distribution with
parameters N, n, r if its density is
r N r

x n x
f ( x) =
;
N

n
if max[0, n - (N - r)] x min(n, r)
Theorem : If X is a hypergeometric random

variable with parameters N, n, r then
E[X] = n(r / N)
r N r N n
Var ( X ) = n
N N N 1
Section 3.7 page no 91, 54

Suppose that X is hypergeometric with
N = 20, r = 17, n = 5. What are the possible
values for X? What is E[X] and Var (X)?
r N r
Sol:

x n x
f ( x) =
N

n
if max[0, n - (N - r)] x min(n, r)

max[0, 5 (20-17)] x min(5, 17)

max[0, 2] x min(5, 17)
i.e. X = 2, 3, 4 and 5.
E[X] = 5(17/20) = 4.25
Var(X) = 5(17/20)(3/20)(15/19) = 0.5033
Hypergeometric
binomial
When the sample size n is small

compared to population size N, then
the composition of the sampled group
does not change much from trial to trial
if sampling is without replacement, This
we can use binomial distribution with
parameters are n and p = r/N.
This is done if n/N 0.05.
Example 3.7.3
During a course of an hour, 1000 bottles of
beer are filled by a particular machine. Each
hour a sample of 20 bottles is randomly
selected and number of ounces of beer per
bottle is checked. Let X denote the number of
bottles selected that are underfilled. Suppose
during a particular hour, 100 underfilled
bottles are produced. Find the probability that
at least 3 underfilled bottles will be among
those sampled.
Solution (using hypergeometric)
X = denote the number of bottles

selected that are underfilled
N = 1000, n = 20, r = 100
Required probability = P[X 3]
= 1- P[X =0] P[X=1] P[X=2]
Required probability = P[X 3]

= 1 P[X=0] P[X=1] P[X=2]
100 900 100 900 100 900
0 20 1 19 2 18
= 1
1000
1000
1000
20
20
20
= 0.3224
Using Binomial
Approximation with
n = 20, p = 100/1000 = 0.1
(n/N = 20/1000 = 0.02 < 0.05)
P[X 3] = 1 - F(2) = 1 - 0.6769 = 0.3231.
Sometimes population size is large but

not known. Proportion of favorable
population is given. Then we can use
binomial distribution for both sampling
with or without replacement where p is
the proportion of favorable population.
Ex : A vegetable vendor has a

large pile of tomatoes of which
30% are green. A buyer randomly
puts 10 tomatoes in his basket.
What is the probability that more
than 5 of them are green?
Poisson Distribution
This distribution is named on the
French mathematician Simeon Denis
Poisson.
Let k > 0 be a constant and, for any
real number x,
e kk x
=
;
for
x
0
,
1
,
2
,...
f ( x ) = x!
0
otherwise
Verify f(x) is probability density function.

f(x) is nonnegative.
f ( x) =
x =0
k
x
e k
x!
k
k
= e e =1
x =0
k k
k
= e 1 + + + ...
1! 2!
A random variable X with this density f is

said to have a Poisson distribution with
parameter k.
Theorem
The m.g.f. of a Poisson random
variable X with parameter k > 0 is
m X (t ) = e
t
k (e 1)
E[X] = k and Var[X] = k.
Proof:
tx k
e e k
m X (t ) = E[e ] =
x!
x =0
tX
=
x =0
(e k )
t
x!
(
)
ke
(
1
)
k
e
t
k
= e 1 + ke +
+ ..... = e
2!
t 2
k ( e t 1)
t
E[ X ] = (m X (t ) = e
(ke ) t =0 = k
dt
t =0
d
E[ X ] = 2 (m X (t )
dt
t =0
2
= e
k ( e t 1)
(ke ) + e
t
k ( e t 1)
t 2
(ke )
t =0
=k +k
2
Hence, Var ( X ) = E[ X ] ( E[ X ]) = k
2
Expectation of Poisson r.v. by

Definition
x 1
e k
e k
k
k
E[ X ] = x
=
= e k
x!
x =0
x = 0 ( x 1)!
x = 0 ( x 1)!
Let x 1 = y
2
k
k
k
k
E[ X ] = e k
= e k 1 + k + + .....
2!
y = 0 y!
k
k
= e ke = k
e k
e k
= {x( x 1) + x}
E[ X ] = x
x!
x!
x =0
x =0
2
e k
e k
= x( x 1)
+x
x!
x!
x =0
x =0
k
e k
= x( x 1)
+k
x( x 1)( x 2)!
x =0
x2
k
e k
k 2
=
+ k =e k
+k
x = 0 ( x 2)!
x = 0 ( x 2)!
Let x 2 = y
k
E[ X ] = e k + k
y = 0 y!
2
k
= e k 1 + k + + ..... + k
2!
2
k 2 k
=e k e +k =k +k
2
Var[ X ] = E[ X ] E[ X ]
2
= k +k k = k
2
Poisson Process : A process occurring

discretely over a continuous interval of
time or length or space is called a
Poisson Process.
Let = average number of successes
occurring in a unit interval.
Assumptions of Poisson process :

(i) Probability of success in a very small
interval of time t is t
(ii) Probability of more than one success
in such a very small interval of time is
negligible.
(iii) Probability success in such a small
interval does not depend on what
happened prior to that time.
Then = average number of successes

occurring in a unit of (time or space or
length )
Let X = number of times the discrete
event occurs in a given interval of length
s units
Then X has Poisson distribution with
parameter k = s.
Rajiv
Let X = number of times the discrete event

occurs in a given interval of length s in a
Poisson process.
Then X has Poisson distribution with parameter
k = s.
Thus density of X is :
e s ( s ) x
for x = 0,1,2,...
f ( x) =
x!
0
otherwise
c.d.f. of Poisson distribution

Provided by Table on p.692.
Values of k=s, the parameter of
Poisson distribution corresponds to
columns, values t of random variable
correspond to rows and value of cdf
F(t) are entries inside table.
The expected value of X is s.

The average number of occurrence of the
event of interest in an interval of s units
= s.
Thus the average number of occurrences
of the event in 1 unit of time, length, area
or space is s/s =
Steps in solving Poisson Problem

Determine the basic unit of measurement
being used.
Determine the average number of
occurrences of the event per unit. This
number is denoted by .
The random variable X, the number of
occurrences of the event in the interval of
size s follows a Poisson distribution with
parameter k = s.
Poisson approximation to
Binomial
If a binomial random variable X has

parameter p very small and n large so
that np = k is moderate then X can be
approximated by a Poisson random
variable Y with parameter k.
Exercise 63
Geophysicists determine the age of a zircon by
counting the number of uranium fission tracks
on a polished surface. A particular zircon is of
such an age that the average number of tracks
per square centimeter is five. What is the
probability that a 2 centimeter-square sample
of this zircon will reveal at most 3 tracks, thus
leading to an underestimation of the age of the
Material?
Example:
A large microprocessor chip contains
multiple copies of circuits . If a circuit fails,
the chip knows how to select the proper
logic to repair itself. Average number of
defects per chip is 300. Find the
probability that 10 or fewer defects will be
found in a randomly selected region that
comprises 5% of the total surface area?
Ex.64 :
California is hit by approximately 500
Earthquakes that are large enough to be felt
every year. However those of destructive
magnitude occur on an average once a
year. Find the probability that at least one
earthquake of this magnitude occurs during
a 6 month period. Would it be unusual to
have 3 or more earthquakes of destructive
magnitude on a 6 month Period? Explain.
Thank You

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BITS Pilani

MATH F111 & AAOC C111

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Generally random variables are

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P[X=11]= P[6,5),(5,6)] = 2/36

The random variable denoting the

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Section 3.1 (page no 81)

The uncertain behavior of the

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Discrete Probability Density

f(x) = P(X=x) for all real x.

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From the density, one can evaluate the

Conversely if we are given probabilities of

The necessary and sufficient

f ( x ) 0 for all x and

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for any real number x, here f

The density and cumulative

P(a < X c ) = P( X c) - P(X a)

Cumulative distribution function of a

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Exercise : Given that f(x)= k/(2x), x=0, 1, 2,

Tabular way of defining density (pdf):

of holes that can

(i) Find f(8),

F (x) 0.1 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.5 0.8

(i)Find probability density function f(x)

0.1 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0

0.1 0.2 0.05 0.05 0.1

f(x) = 0 at all other real number x

0.1 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0

(iii) Find F(-2) & F(4)

F(-2)=0 & F(4)=1

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When we repeat the rolling over and over

Similarly, P[X = 2] = P[X = 5] = 1/6, the

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Where f(x) is density of X provided

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Variance and Standard

Variance and Standard deviation

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BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Exercise 15 : The density for X, the number of

f(x) 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.2

Find E[X], E[X2], Var[X], X. Find the unit of

Example : Let X be random

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Section 3.3, page 84, 17

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Section 3.3, page 84, 22

show that g(x) f(x) <

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|g(x)| f(x) does not