05 CNG Buses

Proposed
Exhaust Emission Rates for

Compressed Natural Gas Transit
Buses in MOVES2013
MSTRS MOVES Review Work group
September 25, 2012
Andrew Eilbert, Ari Kahan
Air Quality & Modeling Center
Assessment and Standards Division
U.S. EPA Office of Transportation & Air Quality
Outline
Overview
Literature review
MOVES2010b Analysis
Creating Proposed MOVES2013 rates
http://www.flickr.com/photos/channaher/2973554252
Transit Bus Mileage Share by Fuel

Fuel
Diesel fuel
Compressed natural gas (CNG)
Bio-diesel(BD)
Gasoline
Dual fuel
Hybrid diesel
Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Mileage Share
(2010)
63%
14%
8%
5%
4%
3%
2%
Source - National Transit Database (Transit Way Mileage)

http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/datbase/2010_database/NTDdatabase.htm
Bus CNG Consumption
- Chart from EIA Alternative Fuels Database (http://www.eia.gov/renewable/afv/users.cfm)
Background
Between 2003 and 2010, the number of CNG fueled

buses and quantity of CNG consumed has
approximately doubled
Buses consume about 75% of the CNG used in
transportation
Considered by municipalities for a variety of
reasons
Price of fuel
Potential for central refueling infrastructures
CNG Buses in MOVES2010b
Motor gasoline, diesel, and CNG are the only fuels in

the default vehicle population in MOVES2010b
Other fuels (ex. electricity) are available to the user through the
alternate vehicle and fuels importer (AVFT)
MOVES2010b CNG bus HC/CO/NOx/PM rates are the

MOVES2010b gasoline medium heavy duty (MHD) rates
Result of timing, priorities, and data limitations in MOVES2010

Increasing prevalence of CNG buses increases relevance for
MOVES2013
MHD gasoline rates documented in Development of Emission Rates

for Heavy-Duty Vehicles in the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator
MOVES2010 (EPA-420-B-12-049)
MHD is regulatory class 46, 19k - 33k pounds GVWR
Benchmarking MOVES2010b CNG

Bus Emission Rates
Conducted literature review
Modal data (1 hz) was not readily available

EPA maintains longer term interest in this data
Compared test cycle results from literature against

simulated test cycles using MOVES
On-road vehicles more representative than certification data

Test cycle simulation
Configure and run MOVES with relevant drive cycle

Determine op mode distribution
Using op mode distribution, emission rates, and total cycle time,
calculate emissions on test cycle
Emission Ratecycle = (Rateop mode * Timeop mode) / Distancecycle

7
HD Transit Bus Drive Traces
Drive trace images from DieselNet
HD Transit Bus Drive Traces
Drive trace images from DieselNet
Conversion to STP bins

STP Class
(kW/tonne)
1-25
30+
27-30
24-27
21-24
18-21
15-18
12-15
9-12
6-9
3-6
0-3
<0
16
15
14
13
12
11
Speed Class
(MPH)
25-50
30
50+
40
29
39
28
38
27
37
25
24
23
22
21
35
33
10
Corresponding Op Mode
Distributions
Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority
Heavy-Duty Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule
900
700
800
600
600
Time (sec)
Time (sec)
700
500
400
300
200
400
300
200
100
100
500
12
15
22
25
Op Mode
29
35
39
11
13
15
21
23 25 28
Op Mode
30
35
38
40
Op Mode Distributions
Central Business District
New York Bus
350
400
300
350
250
300
Time (sec)
Time (sec)
450
250
200
150
150
100
100
50
0
200
50
0
12
15
22
25
Op Mode
29
35
39
12
15
22
25
Op Mode
29
35
39
Literature Reviewed
Paper/Article
Lead Research Unit
Melendez 2005 National Renewable Energy

Laboratory (NREL)
Clark 1999
West Virginia University
(WVU)
Ayala 2002
California Air Resources
Board (CARB)
Ayala 2003
CARB
Lanni 2003
New York Department of
Environmental Conservation
Colorado School of Mines
McCormick
1999
LaTavec 2002
ARCO (a BP Company)
McKain 2000
WVU
Clark 1997
WVU
TOTAL
Full references in appendix slide
Driving
Cycle(s)
WMATA
Number of
Unique
Measurements
7
CBD
CBD, NYB, S55,

UDDS
CBD, SS55
CBD, NYB
8
12
6
CBD, UDDS
CBD
CBD, NYB
CBD
2
6
10
66
13
Literature Analysis
9 papers, 66 unique dynamometer measurements
A similar analysis on CNG and diesel buses was performed by

Navistar in 2007
Majority of vehicles are pre-2004, low age
53 of 66 measurements are age 0-3, remainder were 4-5
Additional data is welcome
No published second by second data
38 measurements made on the CBD cycle
Focused on this analysis, but the other trends were generally

similar
14
Comparing MOVES Projections to

Measurements
CBD Cycle, NOx Emissions, Age Group 3
60
50
Grams/Mile
40
Measurements CNG
30
Measurements CNG (4-5 Age Group)

MOVES 2010b CNG
MOVES 2010b Diesel
20
10
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Model Year
1999
2000
2001
2002

Measurements
CBD Cycle, CO Emissions, Age Group 3
70
60
Grams/Mile
50
40
Measurements CNG
30
MOVES 2010b CNG

MOVES 2010b Diesel
20
10
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Model Year
1999
2000
2001
2002

Measurements
CBD Cycle, PM Emissions, Age Group 3
1
0.9
0.8
Grams/Mile
0.7
0.6
Measurements CNG
0.5

MOVES 2010b CNG
0.4
MOVES 2010b Diesel

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Model Year
1999
2000
2001
2002

Measurements
CBD Cycle, THC Emissions, Age Group 3
25
Grams/Mile
20
15
Measurements CNG
MOVES 2010b CNG
10
MOVES 2010b Diesel
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Model Year
1999
2000
2001
2002

Measurements
CBD Cycle, CH4 Emissions, Age Group 3
25
Grams/Mile
20
15
Measurements CNG
MOVES 2010b CNG
10
MOVES 2010b Diesel
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Model Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
Other Cycles Consistent Trends

UDDS Cycle, NOx Emissions, Age Group 3
SS55 Cycle, NOx Emissions, Age Group 3
20
15
10
SS55
Measurements
SS55 MOVES
Predictions
0
1999.5
2000
2000.5 2001
Model Year
Grams/Mile
Grams/Mile
20
UDDS
Measurements
UDDS MOVES
Predictions
NYB Cycle, NOx Emissions, Age Group 3

120
100
WMATA Measurements
WMATA MOVES
Predictions
2002
2004
Model Year
Grams/Mile
Grams/Mile
10
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Model Year
2001.5
WMATA Cycle, NOx Emissions, Age Group 3

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
15
80
60
40
20
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Model Year
NYB Measurements
NYB MOVES
Predictions
20
MY 1994-2001 Literature Review
Literature shows much higher THC and CH4

emissions than MOVES2010b CNG rates
Literature PM rates are higher than MOVES2010b
MOVES2010b CNG is based on gasoline emission rates

CH4 is uncombusted fuel from CNG vehicle
Majority of THC increase is CH4
Much lower than diesel buses without trap
Literature NOx rates are higher than MOVES2010b

Literature CO rates are similar
Other cycles show similar, but not identical
conclusions
21
Developing Modal Rates
No modal data from papers
Potentially available from some authors

Significant additional time and financial investment
Acquisition costs
Quality Assurance
Analysis
Potentially a future option
Scaled MOVES2010b CNG rates so that simulated drive cycle

emissions are at appropriate level
Simulate drive cycle in MOVES

Match to equivalent data from paper
Develop scaling factor
Assuming same ratio applies to running and start emissions
Assume same age trends, except for CH4
CH4 is assumed to remain same proportion of THC
22
Proposed MOVES2013 CNG bus

rates
Categorized CNG buses into 3 model year groups
A: 1994-2001 (Most MYs contained in literature review)

B: 2002-2006 (Additional MYs WMATA cycle)
C: 2007 and later
For group A & B, emission rates from literature

For 2007 and later MYs, scaled group B emission
rates by ratio to sales-weighted certification data
Portions of certification data (ie, projected sales) are CBI.
23
Current and Draft Proposed Rates

Current MOVES2010b CNG Rates (g/mile)
MY
1997
Age Group
0-3
Cycle
CBD
NOx
9.6
CO
62.4
PM_OC
2.4E-03
PM_EC
1.8E-04
THC
1.8
CH4
0.05
2004 and later
0-3
CBD
4.8
13.4
2.4E-03
1.7E-04
1.4
0.03
1997
0-3
WMATA
9.5
90.0
4.0E-03
2.9E-04
2.5
0.07
2004 and later
0-3
WMATA
5.5
19.0
3.5E-03
2.6E-04
1.4
0.03
Proposed MOVES2013 CNG Rates (g/mile - measured/estimated from analysis)

MY
Age Group
Cycle
NOx
CO
PM_OC
PM_EC
THC
CH4
1994-2001
0-3
CBD
18.1
7.6
3.3E-02
3.7E-03
14.3
13.1
2002-2006
0-3
WMATA
9.1
2.3
3.9E-03
4.3E-04
11.2
10.6
2007 and later
0-3
WMATA
2.2
20.0
1.6E-03
1.8E-04
4.3
4.1
24
Summary
Improvement in CNG bus rates from MOVES2010b
Emissions reflect CNG bus emission rates

Significant increase in CH4 and THC
Smaller changes in NOx, CO
Incorporated analysis of 66 vehicle measurements
Additional area for improvement exists
Modal data
More recent data
Aged vehicle data
Also fixed a MOVES2010b bug (no VOC emissions)
25
Appendix: References
Clark, N., Gautam, M., Rapp, B., Lyons, D. et al., "Diesel and CNG Transit Bus Emissions Characterization by
Two Chassis Dynamometer Laboratories: Results and Issues," Society of Automotive Engineers, SAE Technical
Paper 1999-01-1469, 1999, (http://papers.sae.org/1999-01-1469).
Ayala, A., Kado, N., Okamoto, R., Holmn, B. et al., "Diesel and CNG Heavy-duty Transit Bus Emissions over
Multiple Driving Schedules: Regulated Pollutants and Project Overview," Society of Automotive Engineers, SAE
Technical Paper 2002-01-1722, 2002. (http://papers.sae.org/2002-01-1722).
Ayala, A., Gebel, M., Okamoto, R., Rieger, P. et al., "Oxidation Catalyst Effect on CNG Transit Bus Emissions,"
Society of Automotive Engineers, SAE Technical Paper 2003-01-1900, 2003. (http://papers.sae.org/2003-01-1900).
Lanni, T., Frank, B., Tang, S., Rosenblatt, D. et al., "Performance and Emissions Evaluation of Compressed
Natural Gas and Clean Diesel Buses at New York City's Metropolitan Transit Authority," Society of Automotive
Engineers., SAE Technical Paper 2003-01-0300, 2003. (http://papers.sae.org/2003-01-0300).
McCormick, R., Graboski, M., Alleman, T., Herring, A. et al., "In-Use Emissions from Natural Gas Fueled HeavyDuty Vehicles," Society of Automotive Engineers, SAE Technical Paper 1999-01-1507, 1999.
(http://papers.sae.org/1999-01-1507).
LeTavec, C., Uihlein, J., Vertin, K., Chatterjee, S. et al., "Year-Long Evaluation of Trucks and Buses Equipped
with Passive Diesel Particulate Filters," Society of Automotive Engineers. SAE Technical Paper 2002-01-0433,
2002. (http://papers.sae.org/2002-01-0433).
McKain, D., Clark, N., Balon, T., Moynihan, P. et al., "Characterization of Emissions from Hybrid-Electric and
Conventional Transit Buses," Society of Automotive Engineers, SAE Technical Paper 2000-01-2011, 2000.
(http://papers.sae.org/2000-01-2011).
Clark, N., Gautam, M., Lyons, D., Bata, R. et al., "Natural Gas and Diesel Transit Bus Emissions: Review and
Recent Data," Society of Automotive Engineers, SAE Technical Paper 973203, 1997.
(http://papers.sae.org/973203).
26

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Proposed

Exhaust Emission Rates for

Transit Bus Mileage Share by Fuel

Source - National Transit Database (Transit Way Mileage)

Bus CNG Consumption

- Chart from EIA Alternative Fuels Database (http://www.eia.gov/renewable/afv/users.cfm)

Between 2003 and 2010, the number of CNG fueled

CNG Buses in MOVES2010b

Motor gasoline, diesel, and CNG are the only fuels in

MOVES2010b CNG bus HC/CO/NOx/PM rates are the

Result of timing, priorities, and data limitations in MOVES2010

MHD gasoline rates documented in Development of Emission Rates

Benchmarking MOVES2010b CNG

Conducted literature review

Modal data (1 hz) was not readily available

Compared test cycle results from literature against

On-road vehicles more representative than certification data

Configure and run MOVES with relevant drive cycle

Emission Ratecycle = (Rateop mode * Timeop mode) / Distancecycle

HD Transit Bus Drive Traces

Drive trace images from DieselNet

HD Transit Bus Drive Traces

Drive trace images from DieselNet

Conversion to STP bins

Heavy-Duty Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule

New York Bus

Lead Research Unit

Melendez 2005 National Renewable Energy

CBD, NYB, S55,

9 papers, 66 unique dynamometer measurements

A similar analysis on CNG and diesel buses was performed by

Majority of vehicles are pre-2004, low age

53 of 66 measurements are age 0-3, remainder were 4-5

Additional data is welcome

No published second by second data

38 measurements made on the CBD cycle

Focused on this analysis, but the other trends were generally

Comparing MOVES Projections to

Measurements CNG (4-5 Age Group)

Comparing MOVES Projections to

MOVES 2010b CNG

Comparing MOVES Projections to

Measurements CNG (4-5 Age Group)

MOVES 2010b Diesel

Comparing MOVES Projections to

MOVES 2010b Diesel

Comparing MOVES Projections to

MOVES 2010b Diesel

Other Cycles Consistent Trends

SS55 Cycle, NOx Emissions, Age Group 3

NYB Cycle, NOx Emissions, Age Group 3

WMATA Cycle, NOx Emissions, Age Group 3

MY 1994-2001 Literature Review

Literature shows much higher THC and CH4

Literature PM rates are higher than MOVES2010b

MOVES2010b CNG is based on gasoline emission rates

Literature NOx rates are higher than MOVES2010b

Developing Modal Rates