Bangladesh: Economic Performance Assessment

Bangladesh
Economic Performance
Assessment
November 2009
This publication was produced by Nathan Associates Inc. for review by the United States
Agency for International Development.
Bangladesh
Economic Performance
Assessment
DISCLAIMER
The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International
Development or the United States Government.
Nathan Associates Inc. has developed standard methodologies for producing analytical reports providing a
clear and concise evaluation of economic growth performance in designated countries receiving USAID
assistance, including a special template for countries emerging from violent conflict. The reports are
tailored to meet the needs of USAID missions and regional bureaus for country-specific analysis. Each
report contains
A synthesis of key data indicators from numerous sources, including the World Bank, the International
Monetary Fund, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, the United Nations, other international data
sets, and host-country documents and data sources;
International benchmarking to assess a countrys performance in comparison to similar countries,
groups of countries, and predicted values based on international data;
An analytic narrative that highlights areas in which a countrys performance is particularly strong or
weak, to assist in the identification of programming priorities; and
A Highlights Table and a Performance Scorecard summarizing the main report findings.
The authors of the present report are Rita Aggarwal, Marcos Arocha (JE Austin), Molly James, and Anne
Szender of Nathan Associates Inc.
This work is sponsored by the Country Analytical Support (CAS) project of the Economic Growth office of
USAIDs Bureau of Economic Growth, Agriculture and Trade (EGAT) under contract no. PCE-I-00-0000013-00, task order 004 (20042006) and contract no. GEG-I-00-04-00002-00, task order 004 (2006
2010).
Nathan Associates Inc. also assesses data issues in countries with large gaps in their data; conducts in-depth
sector reviews based on the diagnostic analysis in the country reports; and provides other analytical support
to the EGAT Bureau under the CAS project.
Economic performance assessments, economic recovery assessments, other CAS project reports, and data
used in making the assessments are available for downloading at www.countrycompass.com.
The COTR for the CAS project is Yoon Lee; C. Stuart Callison is the activity manager. USAID missions
and bureaus may seek assistance and funding for country analytical studies or in-depth follow-on studies by
contacting Mr. Callison at [email protected]. For further information about the CAS project, contact
Alexander Greenbaum, chief of party of the CAS Project, Nathan Associates Inc., at
[email protected]
Contents
Highlights of Bangladeshs Performance
Bangladesh: Strengths and WeaknessesSelected Indicators
iii
v
1. Introduction
Methodology
Data Quality and Format
2. Overview of the Economy
Growth Performance
Poverty and Inequality
Economic Structure
Demography and Environment
10
Gender
11
3. Private Sector Enabling Environment
15
Fiscal and Monetary Policy
15
Business Environment
16
Financial Sector
17
External Sector
21
Economic Infrastructure
24
Science and Technology
25
4. Pro-Poor Growth Environment
29
Health
29
Education
31
Employment and Workforce
31
Agriculture
33
Appendix A. CAS Methodology
Appendix B. Data Supplement
Illustrations
Figures
Error! No table of figures entries found.
HIGHLIGHTS OF BANGLADESHS PERFORMANCE

Economic
Growth
Poverty
Economic
Structure
Demography and
Environment
Gender
Fiscal and
Monetary Policy
Business
Environment
Financial Sector
External Sector
Economic
Infrastructure
Science and
Technology
Health
Bangladesh has had impressive growth rates averaging 6.3 percent between 20042008, staying resilient in spite of the global downturn. It must continue to improve
labor and capital efficiencies as well as increase overall investment rates.
Growth has been broad-based. Poverty rates are estimated to fall to 31 percent in
2010, a significant decrease from 57 percent in 1991-1992. However, increasing
regional disparities in poverty rates need to be addressed.
Output structure has remained fairly stable, with a slight decrease of agricultures share in
GDP and a corresponding gain of industry. Agricultures share (18.6 percent of GDP) is
less significant than in the median LI-Asia country but it employs half the workforce.
Data shows prevailing inefficiencies in Bangladeshs overall labor allocation, pointing to
the need to stimulate job creation in industry.
Controlling population is critical given high population density and pressure on resources.
The population growth rate declined from 1.6 to 1.4 percent over the last five year period,
leading to lower youth dependency rates. Global warming poses a major threat to the
country, making environmental conservation a priority.
Bangladesh does not suffer from a wide gender gap in health or education. While low,
womens participation in the workforce is steadily increasing.
The macroeconomic environment is stable, with low fiscal deficits and a drop in the
inflation rate in 2009 from the double digits experienced in 2008.
Bangladesh was cited as S. Asias top reformer in Doing Business 2010. In most aspects
of the institutional environment for doing business, Bangladesh performs reasonably well
in comparison to the regional median, and selected indicators show some evidence of
progress and reform.
The financial sector is underdeveloped relative to comparator countries and domestic
credit to the private sector has been hampered by high real interest rates. The Bank of
Bangladesh (BB) has recently instituted directed credit and capped interest rates to spur
investment.
The Ready Made Garment (RMG) sector has seen tremendous growth, accounting for 80
percent of the countrys exports. New efforts are needed to promote higher-value
products and diversification. FDI attraction has been a small fraction of that attracted by
the comparator countries. Foreign exchange inflows from remittances have risen
significantly in 2008 and 2009 even with the global downturn and resulted in a record
current account surplus of 2.8 percent of GDP in 2009.
In spite of improvements on air transport and telephone density, the quality of
infrastructure in Bangladesh is poor on an absolute basis and in relation to the comparison
countries. The lack of inadequate and unreliable electricity supply is often cited by the
private sector as a main deterrent to increased investment. Roads and ICT usage are areas
where Bangladesh also lags.
Science and technology capability in Bangladesh is below the low-income country global
median and well below India and Vietnams, pointing to the need to increase capabilities.
While the life expectancy continues to improve and child immunization rates have held
steady at an impressive 89%, Government expenditure on health is still quite low, at 1%
of GDP. This is lack of funding is evident in low percent of births attended by skilled
professionals, and the subsequent high rate of maternal mortality.
Education
Employment and
Workforce
Agriculture
Educational attainment at all levels needs improvement and adult literacy at 53.5 percent
is a particular cause for concern.
The unemployment rate is deceptively low at 4.2 percent. This does not capture the level
of underemployment, or the large numbers of Bangladeshis traveling abroad seeking
work. The labor force continues to grow rapidly, and female participation has improved,
partially due to the increasing importance of the RMG industry and the emerging shrimp
export industry.
Agriculture employs half of the labor force and accounts for major supply of rice, the
main food staple. Cereal yields have increased due to higher fertilize usage. Farmers
in the Southwest are cultivating shrimp and prawns for exports.
BANGLADESH: STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSESSELECTED

INDICATORS
Selected Indicators, by Topic
Strengths
Weaknesses
Growth Performance
Real GDP growth
Growth of labor productivity
Investment productivityincremental capital-output ratio (ICOR)

Population Below Minimum Dietary Energy Consumption
Human Poverty Index
Adult literacy rate

Population growth rate
Youth dependency rate
X
X
Resource Depletion, % o GNI
Gender
Primary completion rates, female
X
X
Labor force participation rates, female

Government budget balance
X
X
Government expense
Cost of Starting a Business, % GNI per capita
Time to Enforce a Contract
Time to Register Property
Time to Start a Business
Financial Sector
Domestic credit to the private sector
Interest Rate Spread
Credit information index
External Sector
Trade in goods and services, % GDP

Debt service ratio, % exports
Current account balance
Foreign direct investment, % GDP
Trade in services, % GDP
Remittance receipts, % GDP
Selected Indicators, by Topic
Strengths
Weaknesses
Concentration of Exports
Net Barter Terms of Trade, Index 2000=100
Trade Policy Index
Overall infrastructure quality
Quality of infrastructurerail
Quality of infrastructureelectricity supply
X
X
Internet users per 100 people

Telephone Density, Fixed and Mobile Lines
IPR Protection
Health
Child immunization rate
HIV prevalence
Births attended by a skilled professional
Prevalence of child malnutrition
Education
Youth literacy rate
Gross tertiary enrollment rate
Expenditure on Primary Education, Percent of GDP

Growth of labor force
X
X
Unemployment Rate
Agriculture
Agriculture value added
Cereal yield
Note: The chart identifies selective indicators for which performance is particularly strong or weak relative to benchmark
standards, as explained in Appendix A. The data supplement presented in Appendix B provides full tabulation of the data and
international benchmarks examined for this report, along with technical notes on data sources and definitions.
1. Introduction
This report is one of a series of economic performance assessments prepared for the EGAT
Bureau to provide USAID missions and regional bureaus with a concise evaluation of key
indicators covering a broad range of issues relating to economic growth performance in
designated host countries. The report draws on a variety of international data sources1 and uses
international benchmarking against reference group averages, comparator countries, and
statistical norms to identify major constraints, trends, and opportunities for strengthening growth
and reducing poverty. This study uses India and Vietnam as direct comparators. Both have large
populations, and both have undertaken economic reforms in recent years that have led to rapid
economic gains that could provide useful examples for Bangladesh.
METHODOLOGY
The methodology used here is analogous to examining an automobile dashboard to see which
gauges are signaling problems. Sometimes a blinking light has obvious implicationssuch as the
need to fill the fuel tank. In other cases, it may be necessary to have a mechanic probe more
deeply to assess the source of the trouble and determine the best course of action.2 Similarly, the
Economic Performance Assessment is based on an examination of key economic and social
indicators, to see which ones are signaling problems. Some blinking indicators have clear
implications, while others may require further study to investigate the problems more fully and
identify appropriate courses for programmatic action.
The analysis is organized around two mutually supportive goals: transformational growth and
poverty reduction.3 Broad-based growth is the most powerful instrument for poverty reduction.
At the same time, programs to reduce poverty and lessen inequality can help to underpin rapid
and sustainable growth. These interactions can create a virtuous cycle of economic transformation
and human development.
1 Sources include the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Millennium Challenge
Corporation, the United Nations (including the Millennium Development Goals database), the World
Economic Forum, and host-country documents and data sources. This report reflects data available as of
early November 2009.
2
Sometimes, too, the problem is faulty wiring to the indicatoranalogous here to faulty data.
3 In USAIDs white paper U.S. Foreign Aid: Meeting the Challenges of the Twenty-first Century (January
2004), transformational growth is a central strategic objective, both for its innate importance as a
development goal and because growth is the most powerful engine for poverty reduction.
BANGLADESH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT
Transformational growth requires a high level of investment and rising productivity. This is
achieved by establishing a strong enabling environment for private sector development,
involving multiple elements: macroeconomic stability; a sound legal and regulatory system,
including secure contract and property rights; effective control of corruption; a sound and
efficient financial system; openness to trade and investment; sustainable debt management;
investment in education, health, and workforce skills; infrastructure development; and sustainable
use of natural resources.
In turn, the impact of growth on poverty depends on policies and programs that create
opportunities and build capabilities for the poor. We call this the pro-poor growth environment.
Here, too, many elements are involved, including effective education and health systems, policies
facilitating job creation, agricultural development (in countries where the poor depend
predominantly on farming), dismantling barriers to micro and small enterprise development, and
progress toward gender equity.
The present evaluation must be interpreted with care. A concise analysis of selected indicators
cannot provide a definitive diagnosis of economic performance problems, nor simple answers to
questions about programmatic priorities. Instead, the aim of the analysis is to spot signs of serious
problems affecting economic growth, subject to limits of data availability and quality. The results
should provide insight about potential paths for USAID intervention, to complement on-theground knowledge and further in-depth studies.
The remainder of the report presents the most important results of the diagnostic analysis, in four
sections: Overview of the Economy; Private Sector Enabling Environment; and Pro-Poor Growth
Environment. Table 1-1 summarizes the topical coverage. Appendix A provides a brief
explanation of the criteria used for selecting indicators, the benchmarking methodology, and a
table showing the full set of indicators examined for this report. Appendix B provides a full
tabulation of the data and international benchmarks examined for this report, along with technical
notes on the data sources and definitions.
Table 1-1
Topic Coverage
Overview of the Economy
Private Sector Enabling

Environment
Pro-Poor Growth Environment
Growth performance
Fiscal and monetary policy
Health
Poverty and inequality
Business environment
Education
Economic structure
Financial sector
Demographic and environmental

conditions
External sector
Agriculture
Gender
Science and technology
Economic infrastructure
DATA QUALITY AND FORMAT

The analysis here reflects data available as of early November 2009. The breadth and quality of
data for Bangladesh earned a score of 65 (out of 100) on the World Banks 2009 Statistical
Capacity Indicator. The score has consistently declined from 80 in 2006, and is now below the
INTRODUCTION
LI-Asia median of 69.5 and Indias 79. The Banks assessment cites several statistical problems
including the use an outdated national account base year and a lack of weekly and monthly
import/export price indices. Despite these problems, the report team found data availability to be
excellent. Recent data were located for every indicator in the CAS data set; this is a rarity,
particularly for a low income country.
2. Overview of the Economy

This section reviews basic information on Bangladeshs macroeconomic performance, poverty
and inequality, economic structure, demographic and environmental conditions, and indicators of
gender equity. Some of the indicators cited here are descriptive rather than analytical and are
included to provide context for the performance analysis.
GROWTH PERFORMANCE
Bangladeshs GDP per capita of US$520 in 2008 placed it firmly in the ranks of low-income
developing countries according to the World Bank classification and least developed countries
according to the United Nations. This correlates with the general public perception of a country
suffering immense poverty and one at the mercy of successive natural disasters that seem to
overwhelm any development gains the country can hope to achieve.
Certainly, Bangladesh does face formidable development challenges. Its population of 160
million makes it the third largest country in terms of food insecurity, and it has a physical
geographythe countrys land mass is below 10 meters above sea level-- that makes it
particularly vulnerable to climate change.4
Less well known is the fact that in the last five years Bangladesh has started on a high growth
path, with the economy averaging growth in real terms of 6.3 per cent per annum from 2004 to
2008. In 2005, Goldman Sachs, having previously identified the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia,
India, and China) as powerful emerging economies, developed a list of countries that it termed
the Next-11.5 Bangladesh and the ten other countries identified were described as having a
growing consumer market and significant industrial potential to become the next BRICS. The
countrys successful development of an export-oriented manufacturing sector specializing in
ready-made garments (RMG), incipient diversification of exports into frozen shrimp and seafood,
and significant gains in reducing poverty have caught the attention of the international
community. In its 2007 report, Strategy for Sustained Growth, the World Bank indicated that
Bangladesh could join the ranks of middle-income countries by 2016 if it can accelerate growth
rates to 7.5 percent or more.6 Bangladesh has also made significant progress towards meeting the
Millennium Development Goals, achieving considerable progress on social indicators.
4 Angus, S.D. et al, Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh: An Agent-Based Approach,
July 2009, pg. 1.
5
6
http://www.euromonitor.com/The_Next_11_emerging_economies
World Bank, Bangladesh Strategy for Sustained Growth, 2007.
The comparator countries used in this report, India and Vietnam, are excellent examples of how
such accelerated growth can take place.7 Both of these countries have experienced growth rates
averaging 9 percent over the last five years, and have seen per capita incomes rise from fairly low
levels in a relatively short time. (Figure 2-1).
Bangladeshs economy slowed down to 5.9 percent growth in 2009 from 6.2 percent in 2008 as a
result of the global economic downturn but the country has not been as affected as other
economies primarily because it is not as linked to the global economy (see External Sector
section).8 Projections for how the economy will fare in 2010 vary--an October 2009 IMF mission
to Bangladesh concluded that second round effects of the global downturn might lead to a further
deceleration of growth to 5.0 percent in 2010.9 However, the Bangladesh government is more
optimistic about the countrys prospects, projecting a much higher rate of growth of at least 6.0
percent for the coming year.10 The World Bank is predicting a 5.5 percent growth rate, although it
notes that it could be as high as 6.0 percent if export performance is strong and improvements are
made in the energy sector.11
Bangladesh has witnessed high growth rates in labor and capital productivity over the last five
years, indicating that both workers and capital are gaining important efficiencies. Labor
productivity growth accelerated from 1.9 percent in 2003 to 4.8 percent in 2007. While
impressive, this growth is still lower than both India and Vietnam (7.6 and 5.7 percent
respectively). The investment ratio (ICOR) declined from 4.5 in 2004 to 4.0 in 2008, indicating
that over time, less capital investment has been needed to produce the same amount of output.
These efficiencies may partly be explained by productivity gains in the garment industry that was
established in the 1980s. India uses capital much more efficiently with an ICOR value of 3.4,
whereas Vietnam is similar to Bangladesh with an ICOR value of 4.2.
While gains have been made in the productive use of existing labor and capital, growth of new
investment has been stagnant, with gross fixed investment as a percent of GDP remaining
virtually unchanged at 24 percent over the 2004-2008 period. This is significantly below the rates
India and Vietnam achieved for their take-off growth (Figure 2-2) and below the Low Income
(LI)-Asian countries median value of 28.1 percent, though higher than the median value for all LI
countries of 20.9 percent. There has been a slight increase in private sector investment, primarily
in construction, but public sector investment has been declining due to a lack of capacity to
implement development programs. Infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly gas and power
7 An interesting paper comparing India and Vietnams growth performance is India-Vietnam: A

Comparative Analysis of Economic Performance. Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Working Paper
Series, February 2009
8
2009 in this report refers to FY2009 spanning the period June 2008-July 2009 for Bangladesh,
April 1 March 31 for India and January 1 to December 31 for Vietnam. 2009 figures for
Bangladesh and India are actuals, but estimates for Vietnam. World Bank, Bangladesh
Economic Update, 2009.
9
IMF October 2009 Article IV consultation
10
Six pc GDP growth likely: BB Governor (get rest of citation)
11
World Bank, Bangladesh Economic Update 2009
OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY
shortages, are routinely cited as one of the top constraints to increased private sector activity (see
Private Sector Enabling Environment and infrastructure sections).
Bangladeshs strong growth thus far has been based primarily on remittances and the tremendous
growth of the RMG industry. A continued reliance on these two factors are a serious cause for
concern given the possibility of slowdown in apparel imports for major markets in the near future.
Bangladesh has to implement deeper structural reforms that will attract the magnitude of
investment needed to diversity the economy and accelerate growth rates to 7-8 percent. The
strong success experienced by its regional neighbors, and as can be seen in the case of India and
Vietnam, clearly indicate that even five years from now, Bangladeshis can experience a higher
standard of living than they do at present.
POVERTY AND INEQUALITY

The strong economic growth in recent years has been broad-based, leading to notable reductions
in poverty. The UNDPs Human Poverty Index (HPI) provides a broad gauge of poverty taking
into account deprivation in health and education as well as income poverty. 12 In 2009 (based on
data through 2007), Bangladesh received a score of 36.1, ranking it 101st among 135 countries.
Bangladeshs HPI score has improved from 44.2 in 2004, but remains higher than India (28.0),
Vietnam (12.4), and the expected value of 24.0 for a country with Bangladeshs characteristics.
Improvements in the HPI index are relatively in line with other poverty indicators. For example,
the incidence of poverty, using the national poverty line, fell from 57 percent in 1991-1992 to 49
percent in 2000 and, was further reduced to 40 percent in 2005. 13 This was the last year that a
household survey was undertaken to determine poverty levels, but simulations by the World Bank
are projecting that poverty rates will drop to 31 percent by 2010.
Many Bangladeshis remain vulnerable to food and fuel price shocks. An earlier projection of the
poverty rate by the World Bank had indicated a further decline to 29 percent by 2010, but this has
been revised as a result of the impact of the global crisis, indicating that 2.4 million fewer people
will be able to climb out of poverty than would have otherwise.14 Income losses are related to
food insecurity and malnutrition. During 2007 and 2008, the World Food Program (WFP)
estimated that 65 million or 45 percent of the population lacked adequate dietary energy
consumption.15 UNICEF reported that in 2007 and 2008, cyclones and floods that devastated
domestic crop production, and Indias restrictions on exporting rice to Bangladesh led to a
doubling of rice prices, the main food staple for Bangladeshis, resulting in a silent
12 The HPI index is on a scale of 0 (no deprivation incidence) to 100 (high deprivation incidence). The
indicators are probability at birth of not surviving to age 40; adult illiteracy rate; percent of population
without an improved water source; and percent of children underweight for age.
13 Bangladesh Poverty Assessment for Bangladesh: Creating Opportunities and Bridging the East-West
Divide. Report No. 4321-BD, World Bank, October 2008, pg. 89.
14
World Bank, Bangladesh Economic Update, 2009.
15 World Food Programme in Bangladesh, http://one.wfp.org/bangladesh/?NodeID=2 .The FAO defines

undernourishment as the condition of people whose dietary energy consumption is continuously below the
minimum dietary energy requirement for maintaining a healthy life and carrying out light physical exercise.
emergency.16 The drop in international commodity prices and the bumper harvest Bangladesh
experienced in 2009 have alleviated some of the food insecurity, but poor Bangladeshis remain
vulnerable to prices changes, particularly for food.
National statistics indicate a relatively more equitable overall distribution of income as compared
to India and Vietnam though the data have not been updated to take account of the higher growth
in the last few years. In 2005 (latest year of data) the poorest 20 percent of households obtained
9.4 percent of total incomes, which compared favorably to India (8.1 percent) and Vietnam (7.1
percent).
Regional poverty differentials are a growing concern. Between 2000 and 2005, the poverty
headcount in the eastern part of the country declined significantly Dhaka (14.7 percentage
point decline), Chittagong (11.7 percentage points), and Sylhet (8.6 percentage points). Gains in
the western part of the country, however, were considerably smaller Barisal (1.1 percentage
points), Khulna (0.6 percentage point increase in poverty headcount), and Rajshahi (5.5
percentage point decline) (Figure 2-3a, 2-3b). 17 Natural boundaries created by the countrys four
main rivers impose strong barriers to connectivity between the north- and southwest to the
countrys main growth centers in the north-central and east.18 It is important to note that
according to the World Bank, eastern Bangladesh is likely to be more affected by the current
global economic crisis, because of its higher concentration of industry and remittance earnings,
than the western part of the country.19
Figure 2-3a, 2-3b

Poverty Headcount, percent, By District
In addition to helping the poor to weather the effects of the global downturn, the Bangladeshi
government has to make significant headway in implementation of its Annual Development Plan
(ADP), which determines the public development expenditures for the country.20 Infrastructure
investments, such as construction of the Padma Bridge (see Infrastructure section) to link poorer
16 UNICEF. 'A silent emergency' as Bangladesh's poor suffer from economic downturn,
http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/bangladesh_49247.html
Divide. Report No. 4321-BD, World Bank, October 2008, pg. 99.
Divide. Report No. 4321-BD, World Bank, October 2008, pg. xii; Asian Development Bank, Proposed
Technical Assistance Loan Peoples Republic of Bangladesh: Padma Multipurpose Bridge Design Project.,
November 2007.
19
World Bank, Bangladesh Economic Update, 2009.
World Bank Says ADP Best Stimulus for Bangladesh to Face Recession, AsiaPulse, October 23,
2009
20
sections of the country with higher-growth areas, is a priority for Bangladeshs poverty reduction
efforts. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and the World Bank, in collaboration with the
World Food Program, have recently developed maps depicting varying levels of poverty at the
district level in Bangladesh. These can be overlaid with other information on education, wages,
and other data to enable policymakers to determine which geographical areas are most in need of
specific interventions.21
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Over the five-year period under review, Bangladeshs sectoral composition has been fairly stable.
As a percentage of GDP, a slight decline is observed in the percentage of output originating in
agriculture, contracting from 20.1 percent in 2005 to 18.6 percent in 2009. A corresponding
increase was registered in industry from 27.3 percent to 28.6 percent. Output originating in the
services sector has remained practically unchanged, averaging 52.5 percent of GDP22.
Bangladesh has experienced a structural transformation in relation to the LI-Asia and global LI
country medians. For those benchmark groups, the shares of GDP originating in agriculture are
much higher, at 33.4 percent and 32.0 percent, respectively, with a lower share of output in
services (39.6 and 44.6 percent). The significance of industry in Bangladesh is slightly higher at
28.6 percent, compared with the LI-Asia average of 27.4 percent and the global LI median of 24.7
percent. While Indias industry share of GDP is similar to these levels (29.0 percent), Vietnams
39.6 percent shows that there is scope for increasing the significance of industry in Bangladeshs
economy.
It is worth noting, though, that Bangladeshs economy still depends heavily on the agricultural
sector, not only for directly generating 18.6 percent of GDP in 2009, but, more importantly, it
provides employment for almost half of the labor force (48.0 percent)23. As such, growth of many
other consumer product industries is affected by the limited purchasing power of the population
that depends on agricultural incomes.
Comparing output shares to employment shares (Figure 2-4) the data reveals that labor
productivity is relatively higher in industry than in services and agriculture. Indeed, while 14.0
percent of the labor force engaged in industry produces 27.2 percent of the economys output,
48.0 percent of the labor force engaged in agriculture produces merely 20.1 percent, while 37.6
percent engaged in services produces 52.6 percent of GDP.24 This means that each job in industry
produces roughly 4.6 times as much value added as does each job in agriculture, and about 1.4
21
The maps are available at: <http://one.wfp.org/bangladeshSiteTest/?ModuleID=184&Key=90>.
22 Labor force structure data for Bangladesh was sourced from World Bank World Development
Indicators, and output shares as percent of GDP from the countrys central bank website.
23
24
According to data from 2005, latest year available
Although data for output shares is available for Bangladesh for 2009, for consistency purpose we used
2005 data of employment and output shares in this comparison.
10
times as much as each job in services. The sectoral growth rates vary as well. For the five years
to 2009, agriculture value-added registered an annual growth rate of 3.9 percent, while valueadded in industry and services grew at a much faster rate in the same period, with annual average
growth rates of 7.8 and 7.9 percent, respectively.25
Figure 2-4
Comparison of Labor Force Structure and Output Structure
In sum, these figures reveal that although some structural transformation has occurred in
Bangladeshs economy in relation to the median LI-Asia country, there are still inefficiencies in
Bangladeshs overall labor allocation. While programs to boost productivity in agriculture will
be helpful, given its significance in the economy, and will help to create the conditions of
increased food security that set the stage for labor to migrate into other sectors of the economy,
measures to stimulate more rapid job creation in the industrial sector will be a powerful lever for
increasing aggregate labor productivity and overall economic growth.
DEMOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENT

With a land area of 147,570 sq km (slightly larger than the state of New York), and a population
of 160 million (8 times that of New York state), Bangladesh is one of the world's most densely
populated countries (1,084 people per sq km). The countrys indicators, though, present evidence
that a significant demographic transition has taken place in the country. Indeed, the population
growth rate over the five years to 2008 has fallen from 1.6 to 1.4 percent. This is lower than the
1.6 percent observed in the median LI-Asian country, and even more so than the global lowincome median of 2.6 percent, although it has not quite reached the slightly lower growth levels
observed in India and Vietnam (1.3 and 1.2 percent, respectively).
Lower population growth has also led to a declining youth dependency rate. Indeed, the
percentage of the population below age 15 divided by the working age population (ages 15-64)
declined from 55.5 percent in 2004 to 50 percent in 2008. The latter is well below the expected
value for a country like Bangladesh (58.4 percent), and significantly below the median global LI
country (79.4 percent). These trends bode well for Bangladesh, since lower population growth
and a lower youth dependency ratio will somewhat ease the pressures in the job market and allow
the country to cope better with the demand for education and health services. Overall, containing
and monitoring population growth remains a priority in Bangladesh, given its high population
density, which in turn intensifies pressure on available resources.
Bangladeshs urbanization level increased slightly over the five years to 2008, and is relatively
high compared to the LI-Asia median country, but comparable to other benchmarks. The
percentage of the population living in urban areas gained nearly 2 percentage points, rising from
25 IMF, International Financial Statistics appearing in the EIU Country Report, 2009. Figures correspond
to FY ending June 30th. 2009 data is preliminary.
11
25.3 percent in 2004 to 27.1 percent in 2008. This level of urbanization is considerably higher
than the LI-Asia median of 21.3 percent, but roughly in line with the global LI-Asia average of
30.4 percent, Indias 29.5 percent, and Vietnams 27.8 percent.
Over the five years to 2009, Bangladeshs resource depletion (a World Bank indicator measuring
the aggregated depletion of mineral, energy and forest resources as a percentage of gross national
income) accelerated, rising at an average rate of 10.8 percent a year, from 2.5 percent to 3.6
percent (Figure 2-5). This is nearly double the LI-Asia median of 1.9 percent, but remains
slightly below Indias 4.2 percent and further below Vietnams 12.1 percent. The rise was due to
increases in energy depletion26. It is worth noting, though, that this indicator does not consider
soil depletion.
Figure 2-5
Resource Depletion, % of GNI
In addition, according to an international Environmental Performance Index (EPI) that evaluates
environmental stress and ecosystem vitality in each country, Bangladesh scored 58.0 (out of 100)
in 2008, ranking 125th out of 149 countries covered by the EPI. This score is in line with the LIAsia median of 59.6 and Indias 60.3, but below Vietnams 73.9, which according to the index
has in place better policies to prevent environmental degradation. Looking at the policy
categories that compose the index, a wide gap exists in policies to conserve productive natural
resources (in particular, excessive resource demand, wasteful and damaging methods of
exploitation in agriculture and fisheries are observed) as well as the biodiversity and habitat
between Bangladeshs sub-scores and those of its geographic and income group peer averages.
Global warming poses a major threat to Bangladesh. The major climate-induced disasters such as
more frequent floods, cyclones, and storm surges, as well as droughts, are causing severe loss of
life and damage to property, and are seriously affecting the countrys development prospects. A
1-meter rise in the sea level would inundate about 15 percent of the land area and reduce the rice
crop (the major staple) by up to 30 percent, according to the World Bank, and force millions to
move. As such, ensuring food and water security, protecting infrastructure, managing disaster
risks and preventing overall environmental degradation, as well as incorporating climate change
adaptation in development planning are vital strategic interests for Bangladesh.27The country
participates in global efforts to reduce impact of global warming, such as the upcoming
Copenhagen summit in December 2009.
GENDER
Gender equity promotes economic growth by ensuring that all citizens have the opportunity to
develop and apply their full productive capacities. Gender equity can be assessed in terms of
26 Energy Depletion is equal to the product of unit resource rents and the physical quantities of energy
extracted. It covers crude oil, natural gas, and coal.
27
Asian Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook 2009, p. 193
12
access to education and health, economic participation, womens legal rights, and public
participation and representation. In many South Asian countries, such as Bangladesh, traditional
values limit opportunities for women to pursue livelihoods outside the home. This creates a large
gap between men and women in labor force participation.
Bangladesh has been described by the World Bank as the shining new example in South Asia of
a poor country achieving impressive gains in gender equality.28 Two successful initiatives
expressly intended to improve womens status have been the NGO-driven microcredit program
29
(see Financial Sector, pg. X) and the Governments education policy.
In the education sector, the gross enrollment ratio at all levels of schooling in Bangladesh was
49.4 percent for females and 48.0 percent for males in 2007. Although enrollment rates for both
genders are lower than all benchmarks (see Education section, pg. X), there is a gender disparity
in favor of females in Bangladesh, while the disparities observed in India (59.3 percent females
and 65.6 percent males) and LI-Asia (51.6 percent females and 58.5 percent males) are in favor of
males. Primary school completion rates tell a similar story. There is a 4.5 percentage point
differential in favor of females for primary school completion in Bangladesh, compared to 8.2
percentage point and 4.9 percentage point differentials in favor of males in LI-Asia and India,
respectively.
Life expectancy at birth is a fundamental indicator of gender equity in health conditions. In
Bangladesh, average life expectancy in 2008 was 67.4 years for females compared to 65.2 years
for males. This gender differential of 2.2 years is wider than the median differential of 0.9 years
found in LI-Asia, but much narrower than the 3.3 and 3.9 year differentials found in India and
Vietnam, respectively (Figure 2-6). Furthermore, in countries with more advanced human
development, women typically outlive men by 5 years or more.
Gender disparity in the labor force, although decreasing, remains a significant barrier to economic
growth. In 2007, the labor force participation rates in Bangladesh were 84.5 percent for males
and just 57.2 percent for females, a 27.3 point differential. Similar data for India, a neighboring
South Asia country country shows wider gender gap of 47.3 percentage points. Yet there is still
considerable room for improvement. In Vietnam, for example, the gender deferential is just 6.7
percentage points (Figure 2-7). In some sectors, such as the shrimp and garment industries,
Bangladeshi women do constitute a majority of the workforce. However, most of these jobs are
low paying, with the shrimp sector being known for particularly high male/female wage
differentials. This is partially due to the lack of unionization by female workers, and also due to
the abundant supply of women willing to work in the shrimp plants. 30
28 Whispers to Voices: Gender and Social Transformation in Bangladesh. World Bank and Australian
Agency for International Development (AusAID), March 2008, pg. 3.
29 The focus
on primary schooling in the 1980s and then the Female Secondary School Stipend Program
in the 1990s led to dramatic improvements in educational attainment. Whispers to Voices: Gender and
Social Transformation in Bangladesh. World Bank and AusAID, March 2008, pg. 19.
30 The Role of Labor-Related Issues in the Foreign Assistance Framework, Bangladesh Labor Assesment,
June 2009 Draft, pgs 29-30.
13
Figure 2-7
Labor Force Participation Rate
In addition to economic factors, womens public participation and representation and the
protection of legal rights for women remain uneven. On the one hand, the Constitution guarantees
equal rights to all citizens, regardless of gender, religion, and other social divisions, and reserves
30 parliamentary seats for women. Several female politicians, including Prime Minister Sheikh
Hasina and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia have indeed achieved high positions in
government. In contrast, according to a 2007 Demographic and Health Survey, 17.7 percent of
married women respondents reported that they cannot go to a health center or hospital alone or
with children.31
Additionally, although Bangladeshi law guarantees equal access to property, according to the
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics agricultural census of 1996, only 3.5 percent (0.62 million) of
the 17.8 million agricultural holdings were female-owned.32
Bangladeshs efforts to close the gender gap in education and health should be commended. As
women continue to enter the workforce in greater numbers the government must redouble efforts
to create equitable opportunities in the labor market while respecting the traditional values of the
country.
31
32
2007 Demographic and Health Survey, March 2009, pg. 184.
Whispers to Voices: Gender and Social Transformation in Bangladesh. World Bank and Aus Aid,
March 2008, pg. 12.
3. Private Sector Enabling

Environment
This section reviews key indicators of the enabling environment for encouraging rapid and
efficient growth of the private sector. Sound fiscal and monetary policies are essential for
macroeconomic stability, which is a necessary though not sufficient condition for sustained
growth. A dynamic market economy also depends on basic institutional foundations, including
secure property rights, an effective system for enforcing contracts, and an efficient regulatory
environment that does not impose undue barriers on business activities. Financial institutions play
a major role in mobilizing and allocating saving, facilitating transactions, and creating
instruments for risk management. Access to the global economy is another pillar of a good
enabling environment because the external sector is a central source of potential markets, modern
inputs, technology, and finance, as well as competitive pressure for improving efficiency and
productivity. Equally important is development of the physical infrastructure to support
production and trade. Finally, developing countries need to adapt and apply science and
technology to attract efficient investment, improve competitiveness, and stimulate productivity.
FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY

Bangladeshs macroeconomic environment has been fairly resilient in the face of the global
downturn that has caused havoc in other neighboring countries. In 2009, the Bangladesh
government budget deficit at 3.6 percent of GDP was actually slightly below the 2008 figure of
33
3.7 percent of GDP. While it remains to be seen whether the deficit can remain under 4 percent
of GDP as targeted by the government in the near short term, these figures do not raise serious
concerns about fiscal instability.
Bangladeshs fiscal situation is much better than the comparator countries; Vietnams budget
deficit is expected to rise to nearly 10 percent of GDP in 2009, a significant jump from 4.7
34
percent in 2008. India is also expected to reach a fiscal deficit of 11.4 percent in 2009, from 5.7
35
percent in the previous fiscal year. (Figure 3-1). Both countries implemented fiscal stimulus
packages to offset the global economic downturn. In addition, Indias government increased
spending in anticipation of the general elections that were held in May 2009.
33
http://imf.org/external/np/ms/2009/102909.htm
34
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/05/20/afx6444342.html
35
http://www.allbusiness.com/trade-development/trade-development-finance/12080614-1.html
16
The Bangladeshi government has consistently prepared annual budgets with projected deficits
that, if realized, would have necessitated higher borrowing and raised concerns about fiscal
stability. However, weak implementation capacity, particularly at the local level, has meant that
planned expenditures typically fall short of their targets, and even with lackluster revenue
collection, the actual budget deficits have been much lower than anticipated.
Government expenditures as percent of GDP were 14.8 percent in 2009, compared to 16.6
percent for India and almost 30 percent in Vietnam. A stimulus package entailed government
spending for power, fertilizer, and export subsidies as well as an expansion of safety net
programs. Unfortunately, the Annual Development Plan (ADP), which budgets the governments
development-related expenditures for the country, has seen spending steadily decline from 5.4
percent in 2002 to 3.2 in 2009. This is particularly alarming given that planned ADP targets have
been steadily increasing, resulting in a higher gap between targets and actuals. The underimplementation of ADP targets was identified during the IMFs October 2009 consultation with
the government as an area needing significant attention.
Hand in hand with lower than planned expenditures has been low revenue collection. At an
average of 11 percent of GDP in recent years, Bangladeshs revenue collection is one of the
lowest in the world (Figure 3-2), certainly much lower than Indias or Vietnams at 23.1 percent
and 27.7 percent of GDP respectively for 2009. The revenue-to-GDP ratio for Bangladesh is
projected to be 11.5 percent for 2010, slightly higher than in the past, and the government has
committed to raising revenue by measures that include expansion of tax coverage, rationalization
of the tax system, decentralization of tax operations, and institutional reforms separating tax
policy from tax administration. These much needed reforms would greatly enhance the
governments ability to increase revenues and thus spur development. However, with the
possibility of lower overall growth in the near short term, this may prove to be a challenge for the
government.
Bangladeshs inflation rate averaged 7.0 percent during 2005-2007 and then jumped to nearly 10
percent in 2008 as a result of high international prices for food (primarily rice) and fuel causing
tremendous hardship for large segments of the population. This was higher than the LI-Asia
median inflation rate of 8 percent and nearly at par with the LI median rate of 10.6 percent. The
inflation rate for Vietnam was significantly higher, at 25.6 percent for 2008, while Indias
inflation rate was 10.7 percent. (Figure 3-3)
Fortunately, a drop in international prices and a bumper harvest domestically in 2009 resulted in
inflation falling to 6.7 percent.36 BB has followed an accommodating monetary policy and the
money supply grew by 19 percent in 2009. Price controls have been imposed on some
commodities since 2008, thereby the growth in the money supply has not been wholly translated
into corresponding price increases. It is anticipated that BB will continue to set growth targets for
the money supply that will be in line with the Bangladeshi central governments goal to further
provide stimulus to the economy in the face of the global downturn in 2010. There is fear that
inflation will again rise in the near future as a result of the excess liquidity in the banking system
36
World Bank Bangladesh Economic Update 2009
PRIVATE SECTOR ENABLING ENVIRONMENT
17
due to large remittance inflows (see external sector). According to BB, the excess liquidity has
tended to be invested in real estate and other speculative type investments instead of the real
sector, creating price bubbles in these asset markets. The Central Bank has held auctions of 30
day bills in order to reduce the liquidity in the system, but has only done this to a limited extent
since this will put upward pressure on interest rates and dampen the already low investment.37
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
Institutional barriers to doing business, including corruption in government, are critical
determinants of private sector development and prospects for sustainable growth. The World
Banks composite Ease of Doing Business index ranks Bangladesh at an unsatisfactory 119th out
of 183 countries in its 2010 edition. However, this is exactly the rank expected for a country with
Bangladeshs characteristics and outperforms both the LI-Asia median of 132.5 and Indias 133rd.
Nevertheless, these comparators are not best practice standards if Bangladesh aspires to a
business environment that is more conducive to business and investment growth. While Vietnam
is also not among the top scorers, with a rank of 93rd it performs consistently better in business
environment indicators, suggesting that there is ample scope for improvement and reforms.
There is reason for optimism in Bangladesh. With three significant reforms enacted recently,
Bangladesh earned the spot of top reformer in South Asia in the 2010 Doing Business report. A
noteworthy improvement for Bangladesh has been simplification of business start-up procedures,
38
through the introduction of electronic business registration. Fiscal and trade facilitation policies
are the other two areas in which Bangladesh enacted reforms. The corporate income tax rate was
reduced from 40 to 37.5 percent, though the capital gains tax rate was increased from 5 to 15
percent. The introduction of customs clearance automation systems at the Chittagong port has
39
reduced border clearance times.
In addition to these policy measures, other indicators have also improved. For instance, the cost
of starting a new business, expressed as a percentage of Gross National Income (GNI) per capita,
declined from 56.1 percent in 2006 to 36.2 percent in 2010, comparing favorably relative to
higher costs in the LI-Asia median country (47.1 percent) and even more so to Indias 66.1
percent. Nevertheless, the cost in Vietnam 13.3 percent is indeed much lower. Regarding the
time required to start a business, Bangladeshs score fluctuated between 50 and 74 days
previously, but fell to 44 in the 2010 report. Bangladesh also outperforms all benchmarks with
regard to the number of procedures required to start a business (7 in 2010), compared with 13 and
10 in India and Vietnam, respectively.
37 Macroeconomic Challenges of Large Remittance Inflows, Istanbul, Turkey, October 2009. Keynote
speech by Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr. Atiur Rahman.
38
Doing Business 2010 Bangladesh, World Bank, p. 52
39
Doing Business 2010 Bangladesh, World Bank, p. 52
18
On the other hand, Bangladeshs business environment is relatively much tougher for businesses
looking to register property or enforce a contract. The World Banks prototype business requires
a staggering 1,442 days to enforce a contract in Bangladesh, nearly three times the time required
in the median LI-Asia country and much more so compared to Vietnams 295 days. Likewise, it
takes 245 days to register property in Bangladesh, which is nearly triple the 97.7 observed in the
LI-Asia median country and exceedingly high compared to Indias and Vietnams 30 and 50
days, respectively.
Bangladesh scores on World Banks governance indices for control of corruption, government
effectiveness, regulatory quality, and rule of law show some slight improvement over the fiveyear period, placing Bangladesh on par or slightly better than the LI-Asia median country, but
below both Indias and Vietnams scores. Perhaps more importantly, all of Bangladeshs scores
with regard to these governance indices are below global means. 40
Larger gaps are observed between Bangladesh and comparator countries with regard to the
Control of Corruption and Government Effectiveness indices. With regard to the former,
Bangladesh improved its score from -1.42 in 2004 to -1.10 in 2008, on par with the regional
benchmark of -1.15 but worse than the global median for LI countries (-0.78) and in comparison
to Indias -0.37 and Vietnams -0.76. (Figure 3-4) Beyond this index, 54.9 percent of firms
participating in the World Bank Enterprise Survey administered in Bangladesh in 2007 identified
corruption as a major constraint and a staggering 85 percent of them expected to make an
informal payment to public officials to get things done. Further, executives surveyed by the
World Economic Forum for the Global Competitiveness Report for 2009-10 ranked corruption in
Bangladesh as the 2nd most problematic factor in doing business there, after inadequate supply of
infrastructure, followed by inefficient government bureaucracy.41
Figure 3-4
Control of Corruption Index
FINANCIAL SECTOR
According to a recent Fitch assessment (February, 2009) the formal banking system in
Bangladesh is lagging compared to that of the rest of emerging Asia, marked by weak asset
quality, inadequate provisions for loan losses, poor capitalization, and low returns on assets.42
The four state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs), which account for about 30 percent of the
market, are particularly deficient in these areas. While the share of non-performing loans (NPL)
to total loans has been declining for the banking sector as a whole, from approximately 14 percent
of total loans in 2005 to 10.8 percent at the end of 2008, the NPL ratio for SOCBs was an
40 These indices range in value from -2.5 (for poor) to 2.5 (for excellent), with 0 indicating the global
mean.
41
World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2009-10
42
TEXT-Fitch: Bangladesh Banking System Remains Weak & Vulnerable, feb. 6, 2009
19
alarming 29.3 percent.43 These high NPL ratios point to the inability of the banking sector,
particularly the SOCBs, to appropriately assess credit risk and allocate capital efficiently.
Banking sector inefficiencies can also be seen from the spread between deposit rates and lending
rates. This spread was close to 7 percent in 2008, much higher than the 3.5 to 4.0 percent for
India and 3 percent for Vietnam.
The Bangladesh government has outlined plans to reform the banking sector, and the October
2009 IMF mission to Bangladesh was particularly pleased with measures that included
preparation for the introduction of Basel II regulations effective January 1, 2010 that will raise the
quality of banks capital and create risk management units at all banks.44
While attempts have been made to restructure the SOCBs into Limited Liability Companies and
appoint new managers to senior positions, they are still hampered by directed lending practices
and weak technical expertise. Fortunately, the SOCBs have lost considerable market share in the
last ten years, with their share of the banking system assets falling from 68 percent of the market
in 1997 to about 33 percent at present.45 Thirty private commercial banks, 9 foreign commercial
banks, and 5 development banks are increasing their dominance in the Bangladesh market.
Driven by the fact that 90 percent of Bangaldeshis are Muslim, Islamic banking has also become
more widespread.
Despite growth in private, foreign, and development banks, the banking sector remains
underdeveloped, as evidenced by the ratio of M2 (currency plus bank deposits) to GDP. While
this has increased in the last five years and is higher than the regional comparisons at 48 percent
in 2009, it is still significantly below the rate of monetization of the economy in India and
Vietnam (89.4 percent and 109.8 percent, respectively).
Another primary indicator of financial development is bank credit to the private sector as a
percentage of GDP (Figure 3-5). In Bangladesh this ratio has only grown one percentage point
annually in the last five years, from 30 percent in 2005 to over 35 percent in 2009. This is well
below the ratio for India and Vietnam (54 percent and 90 percent respectively), though above
regional medians for LI and LI-Asian economies. This slow growth is largely a result of high
lending rates. Nominal lending rates have averaged 11.5 percent during 2004-2008, with real
interest rates averaging 5.5 percent during that period. In addition, since October 2008 a goslow policy has been adopted by businesses to avoid financial risk in the face of global
economic recession.46 In order to increase the flow of credit to the private sector, the Bank of
Bangladesh (BB) announced in June, 2009 a controversial policy to cap interest rates on lending
and directed credit to some priority sectors to counter the adverse effects of the global downturn
and stimulate investment. 47
43
Banking Sector At Risk From Economic Outlook, South Asia-May 2009, www.asia-monitor.com
44
IMF RED, 2009
45
TEXT-Fitch: Bangladesh Banking System Remains Weak & Vulnerable, feb. 6, 2009
46
Bangladeshs Private Sector Credit Falls in September, All Headline News, November 2009
47
Bangladesh Bank Caps Interest at 13% for Bank Lending to NBFI
20
Non-bank instruments for financial intermediation are at a nascent stage of development. The
Bangladesh stock market has been growing, its capitalization rate increasing from a low base of 5
percent of GDP in 2005 to 16 percent in 2009. The number of firms listed on the exchange is
extremely small, with 303 companies currently trading publically.
While Bangladeshs formal financial system is fairly underdeveloped and beset with problems,
the groundbreaking microcredit system that was developed by Muhammed Yunus Grameen
Bank in the 1970s has met with a great deal of success. In 2007, 28 microfinance institutions
48
(MFI) operated in Bangladesh with a total gross loan portfolio of $1.7 billion.
The three largest and most prominent MFIs are the first three founded in Bangladesh. Both ASA
and BRAC took after the Grameen model, focusing on lending to women and emphasizing the
need for social development to work hand in hand with microfinance. As of 2007, 98.9 percent of
all active MFI borrowers in Bangladesh were women, evidence that the Grameen model of
focusing on the poorest women because their urge for survival has a far greater bearing on the
development of the family49 has continued to be a focus of microfinance institutions throughout
Bangladesh. 50 In 2007 there were 21.7 million microfinance borrowers in Bangladesh, (13.6
percent of the total population), which is significantly larger than the 9.9 million borrowers in
India (0.9 percent of the total population) and 5.8 million borrowers in Vietnam (6.73 percent of
the total population).
While the microfinance sector was launched by not-for-profit institutions offering limited
services, it now includes for-profit banks and non-banking financial intermediaries offering a
wide range of microfinance-related services. In 2007, MFIs in Bangladesh held $374 million in
deposits, compared to just $126 million in deposits in Vietnam and $31 million in India.51
While the effectiveness of microfinance in terms of its ability to alleviate poverty has been
debated, Grameen reports that while only 20 percent of Grameen Bank members live below the
poverty line, that percentage rises to 56 for comparable non-bank members.52 It is clear that
while microfinance is already an important part of the financial framework of developing
countries like Bangladesh, there is still room to grow. Although the Asian microfinance market
serves a disproportionate number of borrowers in the world (the top 10 Asian MFIs accounted for
70 percent of MFI borrowers worldwide in 2007), countries with the best penetration rates (like
Bangladesh) still only reach 35 percent of their potential clients.53
48
Asia Microfinance Analysis and Benchmarking Report 2008; MIX Market.
49
Grameen Bank website. http://www.grameeninfo.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=24&Itemid=127

50
51
52
http://www.grameen-info.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=128
53
21
EXTERNAL SECTOR
Fundamental changes in international commerce and finance, including reduced transport costs,
advances in telecommunications technology, and lower policy barriers, have fueled a rapid
increase in global integration in the past 25 years. International flows of goods and services,
capital, technology, ideas, and people offer great opportunities for Bangladesh to boost growth
and reduce poverty by stimulating productivity and efficiency, providing access to new markets
and ideas, and expanding the range of consumer choice. At the same time, globalization creates
new challenges, including the need for reforms to take full advantage of international markets,
and cost-effective approaches to cope with the resulting adjustment costs and regional
imbalances.
International Trade and Current Account Balance

The importance of total trade in Bangladesh (exports plus imports of goods and services) has
slowly risen from 36.3 percent in 2004 to 47.0 percent of GDP in 2008. This ratio is below all
benchmarks and significantly underperforms relative to its expected value, indicating that
Bangladeshs economy is still relatively closed and not taking full advantage of the opportunities
available from integration to the global trade system (Figure 3-6). By comparison, the shares of
trade as a percentage of GDP in the median LI-Asia and global LI country are 84.8 and 70.5
percent, respectively. Indias ratio also falls below these benchmarks, but at 54.3 percent India is
still more integrated, according to this measure, to the world economy. Vietnams ratio is
significantly higher, with trade equivalent to 167 percent of GDP. Similarly, Bangladesh has
enjoyed a small increase in the ratio of trade in services to GDP over the five years to 2008,
reaching 6.6 percent in 2008, but this is below the regional and global LI country medians of 10.6
percent and 16.4 percent.
Figure 3-6
Trade, % of GDP
Bangladeshs low level of overall trade can be partially attributed to restrictive trade policies.
The countrys score on the Trade Freedom Index (TFI) compiled by the Heritage Foundation,
which gauges the degree of freedom from quantitative (tariffs) and non-quantitative (non-tariff
barriers) trade restrictions, was 40.2 in 2009 (on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 representing a
complete absence of tariff and non-tariff barriers). This score is both low on an absolute basis,
and in comparison with data from benchmark countries, which also do not score particularly well
in this indicator (TFI scores in 2009 are 51.0 for India and 63.4 for Vietnam). According to the
Heritage Foundation, a high weighted-average tariff rate of 19.9 percent, import duties serving as
a principal source of revenue for the government, numerous border fees and taxes, restrictive
labeling requirements, burdensome import licensing rules, export subsidies, state trading boards,
and inefficient and corrupt customs administration contributed to such a low score.54
54
Heritage Foundation, Index of Economic Freedom 2009.
22
Bangladesh suffers from a chronically weak foreign trade account because of its dependence on
imports of most essential goods, particularly petroleum. However, over the most recent five
years, exports of goods and services have grown by an annual average of 15.1 percent. Export
growth, though, slowed considerably in the second half of FY 2009, as total exports (year-onyear) grew by only 2.6 percent, down from 20 percent on the first half.55The RMG industry has
become a top foreign exchange earner, accounting for about 80 percent of total export earnings in
FY 2009. With over 5,000 garment manufacturing and exporting firms, the industry employs
about three million workers, of whom 90 percent are women. In addition, this industry supports
the indirect employment of another 10 to 15 million workers, or roughly 10 percent of the
population. The US and EU are the major markets for Bangladeshs garment exports, but the
country is exploring new markets, especially in Japan, due to reduced demand in these countries
as a result of the global downturn. In 2008 Bangladesh supplied to the US 6.3 percent of all
apparel imports, measured by volume, ranking it third (after China and Vietnam), and 4.8 percent
of all apparel imports, measured by value, ranking it fifth (after China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and
Mexico). As of August 2009, Bangladesh was one of only three countries (the other two being
Egypt and Haiti) to record increased value of garments supply to the US in 2009.56
Worryingly, most of these exports are of lower valued garments, and the heavy dependence on
them, coupled with increased competition in global markets following the expiry of the global
Agreement on Textiles and Clothing at the end of 2004, have resulted in a steep decline in
Bangladeshs terms of trade. In 2007, Bangladeshs net barter terms of trade was 30 percent
lower than in 2000. This indicates that Bangladeshs trade balance faces enormous pressure from
a declining value of its exports relative to the prices of its imports. The clear implication is an
urgent need to move into higher value-added segments within garments, and to diversify overall
exports. Bangladesh is now among the worlds top ten suppliers to the US of frozen shrimp, for
instance.57 Overall, however, efforts to move into other agro-processing and services exports
58
have registered more limited success.
In addition to the merchandise trade deficit, Bangladesh also runs a large deficit on its services
account, primarily arising out of the costs of freight and insurance on imports and expenses
59
relating to technical and financial services for development projects.
Crucially for Bangladesh, these structural deficits are balanced by current account transfers,
which for the most part are comprised of expatriate workers inward remittances. The number of
Bangladeshis working abroad and the amount of remittances that they send home have been
increasing since the mid-1980s. Whereas only 70,000 Bangladeshis obtained employment abroad
in 1985/86, 563,000 were working abroad in 2006/07. Remittances receipts, expressed as a
55
Bangladesh Economic Update: September 2009, World Bank, p. 1
56
All US apparel import data from Office of Textiles and Apparel, Department of Commerce, monthly
Major Shippers Reports.
57
Solidarity Center, The True Cost of Shrimp, 2008, p. 9.
58
Economist Intelligence Unit Country Profile, Bangladesh, July 2008, p. 18
59
23
percentage of exports, have risen substantially from the already high 44.5 percent in 2004 to 62.3
percent in 2009 (Figure 3-7). By comparison, remittances represent only 10.6 percent of exports
in the median LI-Asia country, 17.8 percent in India, and 10.4 in Vietnam.
Figure 3-7
Remittance Receipts (percentage of Exports of Goods and Services)
In FY2009 Bangladeshs current account balance has benefitted from a substantial improvement
in the trade deficit, owing to falling commodity prices, weak imports, and a continued increase in
remittances, achieving an impressive surplus of $2.5 billion, equivalent to 2.8 percent of GDP.60
By comparison, in 2009 India and Vietnam recorded current account deficits of 1.5 and 0.7
percent of GDP. The nominal exchange rate was kept stable through interventions by Bangladesh
Bank to absorb the large influx of dollars from remittances. The declining inflation rate in the US
has meant that the real effective exchange rate (REER) has appreciated in relation to its mid-2008
level61, putting additional pressure on exports. As such, the nominal exchange rate may require
some adjustment for the latter to maintain their growth and competitiveness.
The global economic crisis has raised concerns, though, that remittances to Bangladesh might
slow as the number of Bangladeshis taking up new jobs overseas fell by a staggering 50% year
on year to 327,359 in the first eight months of 2009. As there are no reliable data on returnees, it
is impossible to know how many of the 6 million or so Bangladeshis working abroad have lost
62
their jobs since the downturn in the global economy began. About 30 percent of all remittances
come from Bangladeshi workers in Saudi Arabia.
The importance of remittance inflows to the economy is likely to be far greater than reflected in
official data, as large sums of money are thought to enter the country through unofficial channels.
The Central Bank has taken steps to boost remittances through formal banking channels rather
than through the illegal Hundi system, an informal value transfer system that is operated by a
63
network of money brokers. Beyond these measures, the growth effects of remittances could be
enhanced if programs concentrated not only on capturing remittances in the formal banking
system, but on reducing the costs associated with their transfer and channeling a larger portion of
remittance income into productive investment.
60
Asian Development Outlook, September 2009, p. 121
61
62
EIU Country Report, Bangladesh, September 2009, p. 13
63
EIU Country Report, Bangladesh, September 2009, p. 13
24
Foreign Investment, External Assistance, and International

Reserves
Inward capital flows into Bangladesh are primarily bi- and multilateral development loans made
64
at concessional terms, with long maturities, which lightens the countrys debt obligations.
Further, the impact of debt service has been reduced from 5.0 percent in 2004 to 3.2 percent of
exports in 2008. At these levels, Bangladeshs debt service burden is well below the threshold of
20 percent often considered to be the sustainable maximum. Further, the debt service burden is
even lower when compared to levels in India and Vietnam (5.4 and 6.5 percent, respectively).
Likewise, the present value of debt obligations in 2007 stood at 22.4 percent of GNI, which is
below the LI-Asia median of 28.6 percent and Vietnams 34.8 percent. Indias figure is more
favorable (20.2 percent).
The problematic business environment and inadequate infrastructure mentioned in other sections
of the report have continued to result in disappointing levels of FDI inflows into Bangladesh.
Even during the last five years of fairly high growth, Bangladesh has not enjoyed a significant
upward trend in FDI into the country such as occurred in both Vietnam and India (Figure 3-8a, 38b). Relative to the overall economy, FDI averaged only 1.0 percent of GDP in Bangladesh,
which is only about one-fourth of the amount attracted by the average LI-Asia country median
(3.7 percent) and less than a third of the median of LI countries (3.2 percent).
Figure 3-8a, 3-8b
Foreign Direct Investment

In April 2008 Bangladeshs rising value of imports became a reason for concern. This prompted
the IMF to approve a US$218 million emergency loan to support the countrys international
65
reserve position. Over the five years to 2008, Bangladeshs gross international reserves have
fluctuated between 3 and 4 months of import requirements, just at the level considered a prudent
minimum to hedge against trade shocks. However, in FY 2009 the official foreign exchange
reserves reached a record high of nearly US$7.5 billion.66
To summarize, the recent trends in the external sector bring out clearly the need to improve
Bangladeshs insertion in the global economy. Efforts are needed to address the challenge of
improving the competitiveness of the countrys exports through the promotion of higher-value
garments and diversification into other exportable production. This would likely require sizable
investments in workforce development, as well as improvements to the countrys business
environment, including the supply of infrastructure (see below), to improve FDI attraction. The
rising importance and possible precariousness of remittances also point to the benefits of
improving efforts to reduce their cost of transmission and increase their developmental impact.
64
65
66
25
ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE
Reliable physical infrastructurefor transportation, communications, power, and information
technologyis the backbone for improving competitiveness and expanding productive capacity.
Bangladeshs scores on most infrastructure quality indicators are on par or better than the global
LI country median (two important exceptions being Internet users and electricity supply), but
consistently below those from India and Vietnam.
In the most recent World Economic Forums (WEF) Executive Opinion Survey, the countrys
Overall Infrastructure Quality scored 2.5 on a scale of 1 (poor) to 7 (excellent). This score is
identical to the median of all LI countries. However, both India and Vietnam outperform with
scores of 3.2 and 2.8, respectively. Bangladeshs scores from the same survey regarding port and
rail infrastructure have remained fairly stable in recent years, at 3.0 and 2.3 in 2009, respectively,
which exceed the global LI country median, but are below Indias (3.5 and 4.5) and Vietnams
(5.7 and 4.8).
The government is investing in road infrastructure with the support of multilateral organizations,
but challenges remain.67 In addition to roads, in 2010 the government will begin construction of
the Padma Multipurpose Bridge to replace unreliable and dangerous ferry service and connect the
southwest region of the country, encompassing Bangladeshs second largest port (Mongla) and its
third largest city (Khulna), to Dhaka. This will be the longest bridge in the country and it is hoped
that it will increase economic growth for the depressed regions of the southwest.68
In addition to transport constraints, Bangladeshs availability of electricity has been a major
bottleneck to the private sector, and the WEF score in this area has been consistently low at 1.8
percent and lagging all benchmarks, including the global LI median (2.6) and higher scores for
India (3.2) and Vietnam (3.3). (Figure 3-9).
Figure 3-9
Electricity Supply Index
Electricity generation per head in Bangladesh is among the lowest in the world, its supply is
highly erratic and vulnerable to interruption due to natural disasters, resulting in huge unmet
demand for energy that is compensated for at the firm-level through private and expensive
69
generation, while around 60 percent of households are completely unconnected to the grid. The
lack of reliable sources of electricity undoubtedly deters foreign investment and holds back
economic growth. On the World Bank Enterprise Survey administered to Bangladesh in 2007,
firms reported 101 power outages per month, in comparison with 42 on average in the region and
only 9 on average for all countries. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, decades of
67
68
Padma Bridge Cost may hit $2.0 b-The largest infrastructure project to be made of Steel, August 29,
2009.
69
Economist Intelligence Unit Country Profile, Bangladesh, July 2008, pp. 14-16
26
underinvestment and rapidly rising demand mean that crippling power shortages will continue for
70
years.
Although doubling over the most recent five years, Bangladeshs use of information and
communication technology is low and falls behind all benchmarks. The number of Internet users
per 1,000 people jumped from 1.6 in 2004 to 4.0 people in 2008, well below its expected value of
34.1, and at this level it is only half of the users in the median LI-Asia country (7.8). By
comparison, the extent of information technology usage in India and Vietnam is far superior: 69.5
users per thousand in India and 239.0 in Vietnam.
On a positive note, over the five-year period under review Bangladesh has made good progress
with respect to telephone density and air transport. Although it still lags behind India and
Vietnam (33.8 and 61.4 fixed and mobile line subscribers per 1000 people, respectively),
Bangladeshs telephone density has greatly improved from a mere 2.4 lines in 2004 to 28.7 lines
per 1000 people in 2009, surpassing the LI-Asia and global LI medians in the process (12.8 and
13.9 per thousand).
Likewise, international air links to Dhaka have improved dramatically in recent years, partly as a
result of the growing number of Bangladeshis working overseas. Domestic flights are often the
only relatively reliable and time-efficient way of traveling within Bangladesh, but they are
expensive. Most flights are very short, serving as a reminder of how poor the road network
71
is. Consistent with those improvements, Bangladeshs score in the WEF Air Transport
infrastructure index rose from 2.7 in 2006 to 3.4 on a scale of 1 (poor) to 7 (excellent) in 2009.
Notwithstanding the improvement, the WEFs survey scored India and Vietnam higher in this
area (4.7 and 4.1, respectively).
The picture that emerges is quite clear: in spite of improvements in road and air transport
networks and telephone density, the quality of economic infrastructure in Bangladesh remains
poor on an absolute basis and in relation to the comparison countries. Beyond the individual
scores on infrastructure quality presented above, executives surveyed by the World Economic
Forum for the Global Competitiveness Report for 2009-10 ranked inadequate supply of
infrastructure as the most problematic factor for doing business.72 Investments in infrastructure
need to be made in order to foster expansion of productive capacity and economic growth.
Electricity supply, roads, and information and communication technology usage emerge as areas
in which Bangladesh lags the most.
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Science and technology are vital to a dynamic business environment and a driving force behind
increased productivity and competitiveness. Even for low-income countries such as Bangladesh,
transformational development depends on acquiring and adapting technology from the global
70
Ibid, p. 16.
71
Economist Intelligence Unit Country Profile, Bangladesh, July 2008, p. 15.
72
World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010.
27
economy. Lack of capacity to access and use technology prevents an economy from leveraging
the benefits of globalization. Unfortunately, very few international indicators are available to
judge performance in this area for low- and lower-middle-income countries. From the limited
information that is available, though, it appears that science and technology capability in
Bangladesh is not even on par with the median global LI country, and well below the scores of
India and Vietnam in most cases. This indicates the need to develop increased science and
technology capabilities in the country to ensure sustainable development.
Indicators of local science and engineering capacity in Bangladesh are comparable to those of
Vietnam, but both lag India in this area. Indeed, the number of scientific and technology journal
articles per million articles published in Bangladesh every year averaged 181.6 over the five years
to 2005. This is just slightly below our expected value for a country like Bangladesh (224.4) and
Vietnams 221 articles per million. Indias capacity in this area, though, is superior by far with a
publication rate of 14,608 articles per million. Likewise, on the World Economic Forum Index of
the availability of scientists and engineers, Bangladeshs score of 4.1 in 2009 (on a scale of 1
(poor) to 7 (excellent) is on par with Vietnams 4.2 but below Indias superior 5.6.
On the World Economic Forums (WEF) FDI Technology Transfer Index, survey respondents
Bangladesh a score of 4.2 on a scale of 1 (poor) to 7 (excellent) in 2009. While in absolute terms
this is a positive score, it is below all available benchmarks: 4.5 for the median global LI
country, 5.0 for Vietnam, 5.4 for India. Additionally, our expected value for a country of
Bangladeshs characteristics is 4.8. Worryingly, Bangladeshs score has declined every year
from 4.5 in 2006 to its actual level of 4.2, indicating that executives have decreasing confidence
that the little FDI coming into Bangladesh is bringing new technology . The broader concern, of
course, is to increase FDI overall, as discussed in the External Sector section.
Finally, in regard to intellectual property rights (IPR) protection, Bangladesh received a score of
2.4 out of 7, which is low on an absolute basis and below the median global LI country (2.9).
Intellectual property protection is also low in India and Vietnam, with scores of 3.2 and 3.3,
respectively, indicating that in all of these countries IPR are poorly enforced.
4. Pro-Poor Growth
Environment
Rapid growth is the most powerful and dependable instrument for poverty reduction, but the link
from growth to poverty reduction is not mechanical. In some circumstances, income growth for
poor households exceeds the overall rise in per capita income, in others the poor are left far
behind. A pro-poor growth environment stems from policies and institutions that improve
opportunities and capabilities for the poor while reducing their vulnerabilities. Pro-poor growth is
associated with investment in primary health and education, the creation of jobs and income
opportunities, the development of skills, the availability of microfinance, agricultural
development, and gender equality. This section focuses on four of these issues: health, education,
employment and the workforce, and agricultural development.
HEALTH
The provision of basic health service is a major form of human capital investment and a
significant determinant of growth and poverty reduction. Although health programs do not fall
under the EGAT bureau, an understanding of health conditions can influence the design of
economic growth interventions. A governments commitment to improving health policy is
essential to a countrys development. While the government of Bangladesh has had great success
in several areas of health policy there are many more that deserve its attention.
Overall the health of the population of Bangladesh has been steadily improving. This is evidenced
in a new high life expectancy of 66.3 years in 2008, exceeding both India (64.7) and the LI-Asia
median (64.3), although below Vietnams 74.2 years. This improvement in health is also obvious
in the swiftly decreasing rate of child mortality. According to the Millennium Development Goal
Indicators Bangladesh has already reduced the under-five mortality rate by 60 percent from 151
deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 61 deaths in 2007.73 This puts Bangladesh well on the way
to reaching the MDG goal of a two thirds reduction by 2015.
The continued improvement in the life expectancy is partly due to government programs that
worked hard to stop the spread of AIDS. In many developing countries the AIDS epidemic can
drag down life expectancy as more and more young people die. In 2007 less than one-tenth of one
percent of Bangladeshis were infected. Recently, however, the rates of infection among male
73
MDG Database 2009 Update: http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Data.aspx
30
injection drug users have increased from 1 percent in 1999 to 7 percent in 2006, raising concerns
74
about a larger potential problem in the future.
Along with the increased AIDS awareness Bangladesh has made a considerable effort to improve
awareness and use of contraceptives and family planning to control the growth of the population.
This has lead to a significant decline in fertility rates, from 3.4 children per women in 1994 to 2.7
in 2007, and again exhibited the effectiveness of government involvement in health policy. The
government has also seen considerable success with the national immunization program. The
child immunization rate has held steady at 89 percent from 2006 to 2007, above the LI-Asia
median of 81.0 percent, and even outdoing Vietnams 87.5 percent (Figure 4-1). Even in rural
Bangladesh the immunization rate is 81 percent.75 Much of this success is due to good
organization and adequate funding. While this success is admirable, Bangladesh has not
committed sufficient resources to tackle many other pressing health problems.
Figure 4-1
(Chart of immunization rates)
Public health expenditures have remained at about 1 percent of GDP between 2002 and 2007.
This is below the LI-Asia median of 1.7 percent and half the LI median of 2.0 percent. This lack
of funding is most apparent in the recent decline in the percent of births attended by a skilled
professional. The rate had improved from 14 percent in 2003 to 20.1 percent in 2006, only to fall
back to 18 percent in 2007. The vast majority of births (85 percent) happen in the home, and of
the few that do happen at a health facility the greatest increase has been in private or NGO
76
facilities. Not surprisingly the maternal mortality rate is higher in Bangladesh (570 deaths per
10,000 live births) than in India (450) or Vietnam (150), although it is equal to the LI-Asia
median. Malnutrition rates for children under the age of five in Bangladesh, taken from the World
Banks World Development Indicators, fell to 39.2 percent in 2005. As there were no subsequent
data from that source, Demographic and Health Survey data were used for 2007. These indicate
that the malnutrition rate fell to 41 percent from 43 percent in 2004. The fall in the malnutrition
rate is encouraging, but remains high for a country that has seen so much economic growth.
Moreover, the rate is still slightly above the LI-Asian median (40.8 percent) and nearly double the
rate in Vietnam (20.2 percent).
Data on access to improved water sources and improved sanitation are also a bit sparse, but long
range data show a steady improvement. Access to improved sanitation increased from 28 percent
of the population in 1995 to 36 percent in 2006, which is equal to progress made in LI-Asia. The
percent of the population with access to improved water sources also increased from 78 to 80
percent over the same period. However, this slow improvement has not been enough to keep up
74
2007 Demographic and Health Survey, March 2009
75
ibid.
76
ibid.
PRO-POOR GROWTH ENVIRONMENT
31
with the LI-Asia median of 84 percent and is significantly behind shares in India (89 percent) and
Vietnam (92 percent). Together these show a continued need for further investment in health
services. The Bangladesh government has already shown that with sufficient funding and proper
planning it can improve child immunization rates, decrease the fertility rate, and prevent the
spread of AIDS, which are impressive accomplishments, but there is clearly room for further
improvement.
EDUCATION
Along with health, education is a fundamental human capital investment and a vital input for
achieving pro-poor growth. In recent years, government and international donor efforts have
made substantial progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of
achieving universal primary school education, particularly among girls, in Bangladesh. However,
primary completion rates, secondary school enrollment rates, and indicators of educational
quality reveal a far grimmer picture of the education sector in Bangladesh.
The net primary enrollment rate has increased to from 76.3 percent in 1991 to 86.5 percent in
2006. These gains have brought Bangladesh in line with the LI-Asia median value of 83.3 percent
and Indias 88.7 percent. Vietnams primary school enrollment rate of 93.4 percent serves as a
credible aspiration. Similar enrollment gains have been achieved at the tertiary level. Gross
tertiary enrollment increased from 6.0 percent in 2003 to 7.2 percent in 2007. Bangladesh
outperforms the LI group median 2.3 percent and the LI-Asia median of 5.1 percent, but still lags
behind Indias gross tertiary enrollment rate of 11.8 percent.
Data on the net secondary school enrollment rate, however, indicate a decline from 44.2 percent
in 2003 to 40.7 percent in 2007. Bangladesh still outperforms the global LI group median of 28.5
percent and the LI-Asia median of 35.5 percent, but widens its gap with Vietnam, which obtained
a secondary school enrollment rate of 62 percent in 2001 (latest year of data). Moreover although
Bangladeshs primary completion rate of 56.3 percent (2006) is on par with the global LI median
of 56.5 percent, it remains very low relative to international benchmarks, including the LI-Asia
median of 72.2 percent and Indias 85.7 percent.
In 2007, youth literacy stood at just 72.1 percent in Bangladesh, compared to the global LI group
median of 77.8 percent and Indias 82.1 percent. This is particularly troubling given that the net
primary enrollment rate among LI countries is just 57.7 percent, over 25 percentage points lower
than in Bangladesh. The adult literacy rate of only 53.5 percent (2007) is also of great concern.
Adult literacy in Bangladesh is not only well below benchmarks, but low on an absolute basis
(Figure 4-2). By comparison, the global LI country median and the expected value for a country
with Bangladeshs characteristics are 65 and 69.1 percent, respectively. India posted an adult
literacy rate of 66 percent in 2007. The gap is even wider when compared to Vietnam, which
registered a rate of 90.3 percent in the same year.
Figure 4-2
Adult literacy rate
32
Although it is difficult to gauge quality using international statistics, one crude but common
proxy is the pupilteacher ratio, with fewer students per teacher being preferable. In 2007, there
were 45 students per teacher in Bangladesh. This is double Vietnams 20:1 ratio but is on par with
the LI group median of 41 students per teacher and slightly above Indias 2004 figure of 40:1
(latest year of data). Another rough indicator of quality is the share of government expenditure on
education. Between 2002 and 2006, Bangladeshs expenditure on primary education has
remained stagnant at just 1.0 percent of GDP, while over this same period the real GDP grew by
over 6 percent per year.
Bangladeshs poor performance on educational indicators such as the primary completion rate
and youth and adult literacy rates reflects a cumulative lack of educational attainment in
Bangladesh. Adult literacy programs with broad outreach could help to close the gap, while
broader attention to improving the quality of education will help to ensure that youth who enter
the workforce arrive better prepared to pursue skilled employment opportunities.
EMPLOYMENT AND WORKFORCE

In recent years, the government has made concerted efforts to facilitate employment growth to
compensate for Bangladeshs labor surplus. The size of the labor force continues to increase,
growing by 2.3 percent in 2008 to 76 million people (Figure 4-3). .This growth in new entrants to
the workforce is higher than both India (1.7 percent) and Vietnam( 2.1 percent) and has outpaced
the employment growth rate, which averaged 1.6 percent since the 1990s, leading to a labor
77
surplus in Bangladesh. Although the official unemployment rate was just 4.2 percent in 2006
this figure does not accurately reflect the market for labor. The unemployment rate is defined as
those without jobs who are actively seeking work, thus those who are underemployed or who do
not register as actively seeking work are not counted. While underemployment can be measured
many ways, in Bangladesh it is defined as working less than 35 hours per week. In 2006 the
underemployment rate was 24.5 percent, which was a marked improvement from 35 percent in
78
2003.
Figure 4-3
(Labor Force)
Similarly, the unemployment rate does not account for the nearly 1 million Bangladeshis who
79
traveled abroad seeking employment in the 2008 fiscal year. The labor surplus has lead many to
travel abroad, principally to the Middle East, to seek work. This has helped relieve the domestic
labor market from the stress of the growing labor force, and helps to explain steady or declining
77
Recent Employment Situation and Labor Market Developments in Bangladesh, Bangladesh Bank
78
Role of Labor-Related Issues in the Foreign Assistance Framework, Bangladesh Labor Assesment,
June 2009 Draft, pg 24. Recent Employment Situation and Labor Market Developments in Bangladesh,
Bangladesh Bank, pg 4.
79
Economic Trends October 2009, Bangladesh Bank
PRO-POOR GROWTH ENVIRONMENT
33
labor force participation rate. As jobs become scarce in Bangladesh, more and more workers take
advantage of the various government services facilitating worker migration. Unfortunately, the
global recession has slowed this exportation of excess labor. Recently the number of
Bangladeshis traveling abroad for work has dropped 34 percent year on year, from the peak of
80
981,102 workers in 2008 to 650,059 workers in 2009 (Figure 4-4).
Figure 4-4
(Bangladeshis traveling abroad data from Bangladesh Bank)
Like most developing countries Bangladesh is undergoing significant urbanization. While 48

percent of the labor force was employed in agriculture in 2006, between 2000 and 2006 the urban
81
labor force grew by 30 percent. One of the primary drivers of this urbanization has been
expansion of the RMG industry.82
Although women still lag far behind men in labor force participation rates (57.2 percent versus
84.5 percent in 2007), the female presence in the labor market has been steadily increasing. While
in 2000 women accounted for only 20 percent of the total employed labor force (in both formal
83
and informal sectors), that share grew to 24 percent in 2006. Much of this increase has been due
84
to the RMG industry where women make up nearly 90 percent of the labor force. Although the
majority of employment in Bangladesh is found in the informal sector and labor unions are quite
weak, the firing costs of Bangladesh are unusually high at 104 weeks versus 88.5 for LI-Asia, 56
for India, and 87 for Vietnam. At the same time the rigidity of employment index (28) is not out
of line with the LI-Asia median of 24 and is between indices found in India (30) and Vietnam
(21).
AGRICULTURE
The agriculture sector continues to play a critical role in the overall economy. The sector is
dominated by small scale farming, with about 75 percent of agricultural land devoted to the
production of rice, the main food staple for Bangladeshis. Bad weather conditions due to drought
and cyclones cause shortfalls in the domestic food supply, leading to spiraling prices in the
economy.
80
Economic Trends October 2009, Bangladesh Bank
81Employment
Promoting Growth in Bangladesh: Monetary and Financial Sector Issues, Bangladesh
Bank
82 The Role of Labor-Related Issues in the Foreign Assistance Framework, Bangladesh Labor Assesment,
June 2009 Draft, pg 24.
83
84
Recent Employment Situation and Labor Market Developments in Bangladesh, Bangladesh Bank
Employment Promoting Growth in Bangladesh: Monetary and Financial Sector Issues, Bangladesh
Bank
34
Increased use of fertilizer and availability of irrigation have increased cereal yields. Cereal yields
increased by 10 percent between 2003-2007. At 3,828 kg per hectare, yields were higher than the
2528 kg per hectare for India as well as above the LI-Asian median and significantly above the
median for LI global of 1,316 kg per hectare (Figure 4-5). Fertilizer grew by 4.8 percent during
the 2001-2005 period, and is one of the largest in Asia, at close to 200 kilograms per hectare. 85
This compares to the median value for fertilizer use of 67 kilograms per hectare in LI Asia and
the even lower median value of 6 kilograms per hectare for LI (Figure 4-6). Vietnam is the other
leading user of fertilizer, averaging 300 kilograms per hectare. Vietnam, matching its fertilizer
consumption, has high cereal yields of 4,715 kg per hectare. Crop production was 11 percent
higher for Bangladesh in 2005 as compared to 1999-2001 while it increased for Vietnam by
almost 24 percent during that same period.
Irrigation is used, particularly for cultivating the high yielding boro rice. Irrigation is done using
privately owned shallow tube wells and powered pumps run by diesel, which makes the price of
rice very sensitive to the diesel price. According to IRRI, A major factor behind the high unit
cost of production of the HYV rice in Bangladesh is the cost of irrigation compared to the other
countries in the region. Bangladeshi farmers have to spend about 51 US dollars in irrigating one
hectare land whereas the irrigation cost are about 32 dollars in Punjab, India and 18 dollars in
Thailand and 26 dollars in Vietnam.86
In Bangladesh, some coastal areas in the Southwestern Districts of Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat
and Patuakhali part of the country have been flooded to produce shrimp and prawn for export
contributing up to 40 percent of income in some cases (prawn post-harvest fishing).
87Indiscriminate fishing has effect on biodiversity in coastal ecosystems and the government has
had to restrict postlarvae collection. Global climate changes are particularly worrisome for
Bangladesh due to lowlying lands that can wash out agricultural production.
The agriculture sector faces multifaceted challenges, ranging from interventions needed to
decrease the cost of irrigation to environmental conservation measures for protecting the natural
resource base. Given the magnitude of the problems and the limited resources that Bangladesh
has to deal with these, the international donor community will have to be heavily involved in
supporting improved prospects in this sector.
85 Forces Shaping Food Security: Factors Affecting Production, Food Security Assessment GF-16
Economic Research Service, USDA
86 Liberalization of the Crop Sector: Can Bangladesh Withstand Regional Competition? Center for Policy
Dialogue, Dhaka Bangladesh, September 2003
87
Population and food: Global trends and future prospects. Dyson, Tim.
Appendix A. CAS Methodology

CRITERIA FOR SELECTING INDICATORS
The economic performance evaluation in this report balances the need for broad coverage and
diagnostic value with the requirement of brevity and clarity. The analysis covers 15 economic
growthrelated topics, and just over 100 variables. For the sake of brevity, the write-up in the text
highlights issues for which the dashboard lights appear to be signaling problems, which suggest
possible priorities for USAID intervention. The accompanying table provides a full list of
indicators examined for this report. The data supplement in Appendix B contains the complete
data set for Bangladesh including data for the benchmark comparisons, and technical notes for
every indicator.
For each topic, the analysis begins with a screening of primary performance indicators. These
Level I indicators are selected to answer the question: Is the country performing well or not in
this area? The set of primary indicators also includes descriptive variables such as per capita
income, the poverty head count, and the age dependency rate.
When Level I indicators suggest weak performance, we review a limited set of diagnostic
supporting indicators. These Level II indicators provide additional details, or shed light on why
the primary indicators may be weak. For example, if economic growth is poor, one can examine
data on investment and productivity as diagnostic indicators. If a country performs poorly on
educational achievement, as measured by the youth literacy rate, one can examine determinants
such as expenditure on primary education, and the pupilteacher ratio.1
Indicators have been selected on the basis of the following criteria. Each must be accessible
through USAIDs Economic and Social Database or convenient public sources, particularly on
the Internet. They should be available for a large number of countries, including most USAID
client states, to support the benchmarking analysis. The data should be sufficiently timely to
support an assessment of country performance that is suitable for strategic planning purposes.
Data quality is another consideration. For example, subjective survey responses are used only
when actual measurements are not available. Aside from a few descriptive variables, the
indicators must also be useful for diagnostic purposes. Preference is given to measures that are
widely used, such as Millennium Development Goal indicators, or evaluation data used by the
Millennium Challenge Corporation. Finally, an effort has been made to minimize redundancy. If
two indicators provide similar information, preference is given to one that is simplest to
understand, or most widely used. For example, both the Gini coefficient and the share of income
Deeper analysis of the topic using more detailed data (Level III) is beyond the scope of this series.
A-2
APPENDIX A
accruing to the poorest 20 percent of households can be used to gauge income inequality. We use
the income share because it is simpler and more sensitive to changes.
BENCHMARKING METHODOLOGY
Comparative benchmarking is the main tool used to evaluate each indicator. The analysis draws
on several criteria, rather than a single mechanical rule. The starting point is a comparison of
performance in Bangladesh relative to the average for countries in the same income group and
region in this case, low income countries in Asia.2 For added perspective, three other
comparisons are examined: (1) the global average for this income group; (2) respective values for
two comparator countries approved by the Bangladesh mission and (3) the average for the five
best- and five worst-performing countries globally. Most comparisons are framed in terms of
values for the latest year of data from available sources. Five-year trends are also taken into
account when this information sheds light on the performance assessment.3
For selected variables, a second source of benchmark values uses statistical regression analysis to
establish an expected value for the indicator, controlling for income and regional effects.4 This
approach has three advantages. First, the benchmark is customized to Bangladeshs specific level
of income. Second, the comparison does not depend on the exact choice of reference group.
Third, the methodology allows the quantification of the margin of error and establishment of a
normal band for a country with Bangladeshs characteristics. An observed value falling outside
this band on the side of poor performance signals a serious problem.5
Finally, where relevant, Bangladeshs performance is weighed against absolute standards. For
example, a corruption perception index below 3.0 is a sign of serious economic governance
problems, regardless of the regional comparisons or regression result.
2 Income groups as defined by the World Bank for 2008. In this report, the average is defined in terms of
the median so that values are not distorted by outliers.
3 The five-year trends are computed by fitting a log-linear regression line through the data points. The
alternative of computing average growth from the end points produces aberrant results when one or both of
those points diverges from the underlying trend.
4 This is a cross-sectional OLS regression using data for all developing countries. For any indicator, Y,
the regression equation takes the form: Y (or ln Y, as relevant) = a + b * ln PCI + c * Region + error
where PCI is per capita income in PPP$, and Region is a set of 0-1 dummy variables indicating the region
in which each country is located. When estimates are obtained for the parameters a, b, and c, the predicted
value for the Bangladesh is computed by plugging in Bangladesh specific values for PCI and Region.
Where applicable, the regression also controls for population size and petroleum exports (as a percentage of
GDP).
5 This report uses a margin of error of 0.68 times the standard error of estimate (adjusted for
heteroskedasticity, where appropriate). With this value, 25 percent of the observations should fall outside
the normal range on the side of poor performance (and 25 percent on the side of good performance). Some
regressions produce a very large standard error, giving a normal band that is too wide to provide a
discerning test of good or bad performance.
A-3
CAS METHODOLOGY
STANDARD CAS INDICATORS

Indicator
Statistical Capacity Indicator
Level
MDG, MCA, or EcGova
EcGov
Growth Performance
Per capita GDP, in purchasing power parity Dollars
Per capita GDP, in current US Dollars
Real GDP Growth
Growth of labor productivity
II
Investment Productivity, incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR)
II
Gross fixed investment, % GDP
II
Gross fixed private investment, % GDP
II

Human poverty index (0 for excellent to 100 for poor)
Income-share, poorest 20%
Population living on less than $1.25 PPP per day
MDG
Poverty Headcount, by national poverty line
MDG
PRSP Status
EcGov
Population below minimum dietary energy consumption
II
MDG
Economic Structure
Employment or labor force structure
Output structure

Adult literacy rate
Youth dependency rate/ Elderly dependency rate
Environmental performance index (0 for poor to 100 for excellent)
Population size and growth
Percent of population living in urban areas
Resource depletion, % GNI
Gender
Primary completion rate, male, female
MCA
Gross enrollment rate, all levels, male, female
MDG
Life expectancy at birth, male, female
Labor force participation rate, male, female

Govt. expense, % GDP
EcGov
Govt. revenue, excluding grants, % GDP
EcGov
Growth in the broad money supply
EcGov
Inflation rate
MCA
Overall govt. budget balance, including grants, % GDP
MCA, EcGov
Composition of govt. expense
II
Composition of govt. revenue
II
Composition of money supply growth
II
A-4
APPENDIX A
Indicator
Level
MDG, MCA, or EcGova
Control of Corruption Index (-2.5 for poor to 2.5 for excellent)
EcGov
Ease of doing business ranking
EcGov
Rule of law index (-2.5 for poor to 2.5 for excellent)
MCA, EcGov
Regulatory quality index (-2.5 for poor to 2.5 for excellent)
MCA, EcGov
Government effectiveness index (-2.5 for poor to 2.5 for excellent)
MCA, EcGov
Cost of starting a business
II
MCA, EcGov
Procedures to enforce a contract
II
EcGov
Procedures to register property
II
EcGov
Procedures to start a business
II
EcGov
Time to enforce a contract
II
EcGov
Time to register property
II
EcGov
Time to start a business
II
MCA, EcGov
Total tax payable by business
II
EcGov
Business costs of crime, violence, terrorism index (1 for poor to 7 for

excellent)
II
Senior manager time spent dealing with government regulations
II
EcGov
Financial Sector
Domestic credit to private sector, % GDP
Interest rate spread
Money supply, % GDP
Stock market capitalization rate, % of GDP
Credit information index (0 for poor to 6 for excellent)
Legal rights of borrowers and lenders index (0 for poor to 10 for excellent)
II
Real Interest rate
II
Number of Active Microfinance Borrowers
II
External Sector
Aid , % GNI
Current account balance, % GDP
Debt service ratio, % exports
Export growth of goods and services
Foreign direct investment, % GDP
Gross international reserves, months of imports
Gross Private capital inflows, % GDP
Present value of debt, % GNI
Remittance receipts, % exports
Trade, % GDP
Trade in services, % GDP
Concentration of exports
II
Inward FDI potential index
II
Net barter terms of trade
II
Real effective exchange rate (REER)
II
MDG
EcGov
EcGov
A-5
CAS METHODOLOGY
Indicator
Level
MDG, MCA, or EcGova
Structure of merchandise exports
II
Trade freedom index (0 for poor to 100 for excellent)
II
MCA, EcGov
Ease of trading across boarders ranking
II
EcGov
Internet users per 100 people
MDG
Logistics performance index, infrastructure
Telephone density, fixed line and mobile
MDG
Overall infrastructure quality index (1 for poor to 7 for excellent)
EcGov
Quality of infrastructurerailroads, ports, air transport, and electricity
II
Roads paved, % total roads
II

FDI and technology transfer index (1 for poor to 7 for excellent)
Availability of scientists and engineers index (1 for poor to 7 for excellent)
Science & technology journal articles per million people
IPR protection index (1 for poor to 7 for excellent)
Health
HIV prevalence
Life expectancy at birth
Maternal mortality rate
MDG
Access to improved sanitation
II
MDG
Access to improved water source
II
MDG
Births attended by skilled health personnel
II
MDG
Child immunization rate
II
MCA
Prevalence of child malnutrition (weight for age)
II
Public health expenditure, % GDP
II
MCA, EcGov
Net primary enrollment rate, male, female, total
MDG
Primary completion rate , total
Youth literacy rate, male, female, total
Net secondary enrollment rate
Education
Gross tertiary enrollment rate
Education expenditure, primary, % GDP
II
MCA, EcGov
Expenditure per student, % GDP per capitaprimary, secondary, and

tertiary
II
EcGov
Pupil-teacher ratio, primary school
II

Labor force participation rate, total
Rigidity of employment index (0 for minimum rigidity to 100 for

maximum)
Size and growth of the labor force
Unemployment rate
Economically active children, % children ages 7-14
EcGov
Comment [MEJ1]: Index name has changed

need to see if this still applies (MJ)
A-6
APPENDIX A
Indicator
Firing costs, weeks of wages
Level
II
MDG, MCA, or EcGova

EcGov
Agriculture
Agriculture value added per worker
Cereal yield
Growth in agricultural value-added
Fertilizer consumption (100 grams per hectare of arable land)
II
Agricultural policy costs index (1 for poor to 7 for excellent)
II
Crop production index
II
Livestock production index
II
EcGov
a Level I = primary performance indicators, Level II = supporting diagnostic indicators

b MDGMillennium Development Goal indicator
MCAMillennium Challenge Account indicator
EcGovMajor indicators of economic governance, which is defined in USAIDs Strategic Management Interim Guidance to
include microeconomic and macroeconomic policy and institutional frameworks and operations for economic stability, efficiency,
and growth. The term therefore encompasses indicators of fiscal and monetary management, trade and exchange rate policy,
legal and regulatory systems affecting the business environment, infrastructure quality, and budget allocations.
Appendix B. Data Supplement

This supplement presents a full tabulation of the data and international benchmarks examined for
this report, along with technical notes on the data sources and definitions.

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Bangladesh

Data Quality and Format

2. Overview of the Economy

Poverty and Inequality

Demography and Environment

3. Private Sector Enabling Environment

Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Science and Technology

4. Pro-Poor Growth Environment

Employment and Workforce

Appendix A. CAS Methodology

Appendix B. Data Supplement

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HIGHLIGHTS OF BANGLADESHS PERFORMANCE

BANGLADESH: STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSESSELECTED

Growth of labor productivity

Investment productivityincremental capital-output ratio (ICOR)

Poverty and Inequality

Human Poverty Index

Demography and Environment

Adult literacy rate

Youth dependency rate

Resource Depletion, % o GNI

Labor force participation rates, female

Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Time to Enforce a Contract

Time to Register Property

Time to Start a Business

Interest Rate Spread

Credit information index

Trade in goods and services, % GDP

Current account balance

Foreign direct investment, % GDP

Trade in services, % GDP

Remittance receipts, % GDP

Selected Indicators, by Topic

Net Barter Terms of Trade, Index 2000=100

Trade Policy Index

Quality of infrastructureelectricity supply

Internet users per 100 people

Science and Technology

Births attended by a skilled professional

Prevalence of child malnutrition

Gross tertiary enrollment rate

Expenditure on Primary Education, Percent of GDP

Employment and Workforce

BANGLADESH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT

Private Sector Enabling

Pro-Poor Growth Environment

Fiscal and monetary policy

Poverty and inequality

Employment and Workforce

Demographic and environmental

Science and technology

DATA QUALITY AND FORMAT

2. Overview of the Economy

BANGLADESH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT

7 An interesting paper comparing India and Vietnams growth performance is India-Vietnam: A