Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 248 views

    Meriwell Case Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    HarishankarSethuraman
    It is a classical operations problem and the solution as to how and which forecasting method solves the issues are laid down in the paper.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Meriwell Case Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    HarishankarSethuraman
    248 views4 pages
    It is a classical operations problem and the solution as to how and which forecasting method solves the issues are laid down in the paper.

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    It is a classical operations problem and the solution as to how and which forecasting method solves the issues are laid down in the paper.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    248 views4 pages

    Meriwell Case Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    HarishankarSethuraman
    It is a classical operations problem and the solution as to how and which forecasting method solves the issues are laid down in the paper.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 4

    1.

    Develop a forecasting model using the regression method from your previous statistics class
    with Prof Li.

    SUMMARY
    OUTPUT
    Regression Statistics
    Multiple R
    0.891041167
    R Square
    0.793954361
    Adjusted R Square
    0.778969224
    Standard Error
    2534.130656
    Observations
    60
    ANOVA
    df
    Regression
    Residual
    Total

    4
    55
    59

    Coefficients

    SS
    1.36E+09
    3.53E+08
    1.71E+09
    Standard
    Error

    MS
    F
    3.4E+08 52.98279
    6421818

    t Stat

    P-value

    Intercept
    Year

    -1591333.333
    800

    464749.3 -3.42407 0.001172


    231.3334 3.458212 0.001057

    Winter

    -10466.66667

    925.3337

    -11.3112

    5.63E-16

    Spring
    Summer

    -12000
    -8133.333333

    925.3337
    925.3337

    -12.9683
    -8.78962

    2.3E-18
    4.59E-12

    Predicted Bags
    3800
    3800
    2266.666667
    2266.666667
    2266.666667
    6133.333333
    6133.333333
    6133.333333
    14266.66667
    14266.66667

    Residuals
    -1800
    -800
    733.3333
    733.3333
    1733.333
    -133.333
    866.6667
    -133.333
    -4266.67
    -2266.67

    RESIDUAL
    OUTPUT
    Observation
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10

    Significance
    F
    3.10865E-18

    Lower 95%

    Upper
    95%

    2522711.742 -659955
    336.3974683 1263.603
    12321.07679 -8612.26
    13854.41013 -10145.6
    -9987.74346 -6278.92

    Lower
    95.0%
    -2522712
    336.3975
    -12321.1
    -13854.4
    -9987.74

    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    32
    33
    34
    35
    36
    37
    38
    39
    40
    41
    42
    43
    44
    45
    46
    47
    48
    49
    50
    51
    52
    53
    54
    55
    56

    14266.66667
    3800
    4600
    4600
    3066.666667
    3066.666667
    3066.666667
    6933.333333
    6933.333333
    6933.333333
    15066.66667
    15066.66667
    15066.66667
    4600
    5400
    5400
    3866.666667
    3866.666667
    3866.666667
    7733.333333
    7733.333333
    7733.333333
    15866.66667
    15866.66667
    15866.66667
    5400
    6200
    6200
    4666.666667
    4666.666667
    4666.666667
    8533.333333
    8533.333333
    8533.333333
    16666.66667
    16666.66667
    16666.66667
    6200
    7000
    7000
    5466.666667
    5466.666667
    5466.666667
    9333.333333
    9333.333333
    9333.333333

    -266.667
    4200
    -1600
    -600
    -66.6667
    1933.333
    1933.333
    1066.667
    -3933.33
    1066.667
    -3066.67
    -3066.67
    933.3333
    5400
    -3400
    -400
    1133.333
    -866.667
    133.3333
    -1733.33
    -733.333
    2266.667
    -866.667
    -866.667
    2133.333
    2600
    -1200
    -2200
    -666.667
    -2666.67
    333.3333
    -1533.33
    1466.667
    5466.667
    -666.667
    -666.667
    3333.333
    5800
    -2000
    -5000
    -2466.67
    -3466.67
    1533.333
    -3333.33
    -1333.33
    666.6667

    57
    58
    59
    60

    17466.66667
    17466.66667
    17466.66667
    7000

    2533.333
    2533.333
    4533.333
    1000

    2. Forecast aggregate demand by month for 2012.


    Winter Months : December ,January, February 1601 each month
    Spring Months: March, April, May -1613 each month
    Summer Months: June, July, August- 1621 each month
    Fall Months: September, October , November 1590 each month
    3.

    In addition to forecasting demand of larger customers and aggregate demand, how might
    the accuracy of the forecast be improved?.
    The accuracy of the forecast could be improved by looking at demand of each month
    specifically and also looking at particular peak weeks of the month. This will help in better
    savings as there is seasonality with a month.
    They could also try to segment the customers by geography as they serve a wide area and
    the demand may be a function of particular geography.

    4. What role should Ed Merriwell's "feel" of the market play in establishing new sales forecasts?
    I think that the role of the feel of the market is unscientific way to establish new sales
    forecasts. He should be able to enter the sales forecasting as accurately as possible in order
    to do a good forecasts and improve his operating efficiency.
    5. Would you recommend that Merriwell implement the regression method forecast?
    Since Regression Analysis is one of the causal methods for demand projections and Meriwell
    is struggling to forecast demand from its customers, Regression method is worthy of a try to
    solve the problem.
    But since Inventory control is also a issue, Time Series forecasting could also be used by
    Meriwell Inc to predict their inventory and how better to do inventory management.
    6. Suppose Merriwell was considering using Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
    Replenishment (CPRF), what would you recommend to them?
    The aim of CPRF model is to achieve more accurate forecasts. It is done by sharing information
    in the supply chain with customers and suppliers. It compares forecasts down the supply chain
    and looks for reasons in case on discrepancies. It works on consensus forecast. It works well
    with B2B with few customers.

    In Merriwell case, it has over 500 customers of various of varying order sizes. It will be difficult for
    Merriwell to collaborate with its wide range of customers and do forecasts. It could first do a pilot
    with its 100 largest customers by trade volume. It could then extend it to other large customers
    but there is not going to any significant savings by investing in forecasts of small to very small
    customers.

    You might also like