Globe Equity Investment Analysis
Globe Equity Investment Analysis
Globe Equity Investment Analysis
Fair Value:
Price, Sep 29 14(Php):
Upside (%):
Ysabel Banson
Wendy Chen
Maki De Jesus
Edol Jimenez
Cole Tan
Nicole Torres
Renson Yu
2019.00
1665.00
21.29%
Table of Contents
Financial Summary............................................................................................................................................ 3
Investment Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 4
Valuation ............................................................................................................................................................. 4
Major Assumptions ...................................................................................................................................... 4
Peer Analysis.................................................................................................................................................. 5
Technical Analysis..................................................................................................................................... 5
Industry Overview & Competitive Positioning.......................................................................................... 7
Porters Five Forces Model ........................................................................................................................ 7
SWOT Analysis............................................................................................................................................. 8
Competitive Positioning and Strategy...................................................................................................... 8
Company Analysis............................................................................................................................................. 9
Investment Risks ............................................................................................................................................... 9
Treading New Waters .................................................................................................................................... 10
APPENDIX A: Financial Statements ........................................................................................................ 12
Income Statement ...................................................................................................................................... 12
Balance Sheet............................................................................................................................................... 12
Cash Flow Statement ................................................................................................................................. 14
APPENDIX B: KPI and BEM........................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.
Financial Summary
Financial Metrics
2011A
EBITDA Growth (%)
EBIT Growth (%)
Net Income Growth (%)
EBIT Margn (%)
Net Income Margin (%)
ROCE (%)
ROA (%)
Net Debt/EV (%)
EV/sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EBITDA Margin (%)
ROE
2012A
2.333000997
Profitabily Margins
2013A
2014E
4.28
-20.94
13.18199532
13.12
11.87
7.722399011
6.934619724
12.14599294
9.5
12.21
5.680125219
7.302569131
40.5
22.46%
38.38
27.90%
2015E
7.153822536
Return on Equity
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
ROE
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E
EBITDA Margin
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2011A
2012A
Revenues
2013A
2014E
EBITDA
2015E
Investment Summary
Mobile Segments Grow
Mobile segment grows on the back of stronger postpaid and mobile data. 1H14 mobile services
revenues grew by 5% to Php24.5Bil. Growth was primarily driven by the stronger contribution
of the postpaid segment and mobile data services. During1H14, postpaid revenues reached
Php14.6Bil, up by 11% from the same period last year. Consequently, postpaid revenues now
account for 39% of mobile revenues and 31% of total service revenues, up by two percentage
points from just 37% and 29% respectively. Globe added that postpaid subscribers already
reached 2.1Mil, up by 10% from last year. On the other hand, prepaid revenues reached
Php23.2Bil, up by 2.2% y/y while its subscriber base grew by 19% y/y to 40.6Mil. However,
Globe said that it is looking to churn out around 7% of prepaid subscribers who just signed up
to avail of its free Facebook promo but are non-revenue generating units.
Valuation
Using the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) Approach of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Valuation Model, we estimate the fair value of GLOs stock at Php 2,019.42 per common share
outstanding. Since Globe Telecom, Inc. is already one of the major players in the mobile, broadband
and fixed line markets of the telecommunications industry, then we believe that GLO stocks should
be selling at a higher price that is close or equal to the stocks fair value.
Major Assumptions
NOTE
Given
10.13%
Given
Beta ( in CAPM)
Required Rate of Return (r)
Retention Rate
Return On Assets (ROA)
0.59
9.9767%
16%
6.53%
Given
rRF + RPM *
1 Dividend Payout Ratio
Given
1.0448
Calculated by
analysts/authors
7.2%
6.0%
Actual; Annual
Forecasted; Annual
0.8707%
SOURCE
Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas (BSP)
New York
University
Reuters
Topyields.nl
The Financial Times
Ltd. 2014
The Financial Times
Ltd. 2014;
Topyields.nl
World Bank (WB)
International
Monetary Fund
(IMF)
Peer Analysis
Company Name
Hong Kong
Price/Earnings
(TTM)
8.76
Price/Book
(MRQ)
0.8843
Price/Sales
(TTM)
0.28
China
49.17
5.11
3.6
Taiwan
15.58
2.86
2.14
Philippines
21.37
5.07
2.23
Thailand
16.2
9.47
22
LG Uplus Corp
South Korea
29.23
1.34
0.4718
PCCW Limited
Hong Kong
17.49
3.89
1.3
New Zealand
16.5
3.12
1.46
StarHub Ltd.
Singapore
19.85
74.89
3.02
Indonesia
27.38
9.48
11.91
Indonesia
32.32
6.67
5.71
Country
Technical Analysis
As can be seen in the graph a, GLO
stock has hit a support at the 1600+
level. A bearish candle with a
considerably long shadow was formed.
The long shadow indicates that there is
sufficient demand in the support level
such that it was able to drive up the
stock price higher. The stock price was
driven up to almost half of the
candlesticks body. A bearish marubozu
candlestick was prevented from forming.
A marubozu is a candlestick with full
bullish or bearish trend. This failure to
form a bearish marubozu signals that
the bullish trend (or uptrend) of the GLO stock will likely to continue and that this drop in price is
likely just a retracement and not an indicator of trend reversal. Moreover, in general, the trend
mostly contains higher highs and higher lows which is indicative of bullish trend. Furthermore, a
trendline has been drawn to show that such trendline sustained and survived 4 re-tests. The
trendline was able to hold even though it was re-tested four times. One of the basic rules of thumb
in technical analysis is that the more re-tests a trendline, a support, or a resistance is able to survive,
the stronger or sturdier it becomes. As such, with this knowledge of the trendline, we can extract a
supporting insight to our initial proposition that GLO stock will continue to increase. Since the last
candlestick (which is a bearish one with considerably long shadow) hit and re-tested the trendline
but the trendline was able to hold, then we expect that bullish candlesticks will appear as the stock
price will bounce back up and will likely to continue the generally bullish trend.
Company Profile
Globe Telecom, Inc. is a major provider
of telecommunications services in the
Philippines, supported by over 5,900 employees
and over 855,000 retailers, distributors,
suppliers, and business partners nationwide.
The Company operates one of the largest and
most technologically-advanced mobile, fixed
line and broadband networks in the country,
providing reliable, superior communications
services to individual customers, small and medium-sized businesses, and corporate and enterprise
clients. Globe currently has about 38.5 million mobile subscribers, over 2,000,000 broadband
customers, and over 594,000 million landline subscribers.
Globe is one of the largest and most profitable companies in the country, and has been
consistently recognized both locally and internationally for its corporate governance practices. It is
listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol GLO and had a market
capitalization of US$4.9 billion as of the end of December 2013.
Globe Telecom, Inc. is among the leading integrated telecom services in Philippines. The
company is primarily engaged in offering wireline, wireless and broadband services. Its major
shareholders include Singapore Telecom (47.3%) and Ayala Corporation (30.5%). The broad
portfolio of services offered by Globe Telecom include Glboe Postpaid, Globe Prepaid, TM (a
prepaid service), T@ttoo and Globe Gcash. The company has a network of over 782,000 retailers,
distributors, suppliers and business partners.
By 2012, the company had 33.12 million wireless and 1.67 million broadband subscriptions
which included 1.33 million wireless broadband and 340,560 wireline broadband subscriptions.
For the year ended December 2012, the company generated revenues of PHP 82.7 billion,
recording annual growth of 6%, with net income of PHP 6.9 billion. As of 2013, had revenues of
PHP 95 billion, and net income of PHP 4.96 billion.
Globe is committed to being a responsible corporate citizen. Globe BridgeCom, the
companys umbrella corporate social responsibility program, leads and supports various initiatives
that (1) promote education and raise the level of computer literacy in the country, (2) support
entrepreneurship and micro-enterprise development particularly in the countryside, and (3) ensure
sustainable development through protection of the environment and excellence in operations. Since
its inception in 2003, Globe BridgeCom has made a positive impact on the lives of thousands of
public elementary and high school students, teachers, community leaders, and micro-entrepreneurs
throughout the country. For its efforts, Globe BridgeCom has been recognized and conferred
several awards and citations by various Philippine and international organizations.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- well-established brand
identity
- innovative offerings
- growing subscriber base
Weaknesses
- signal location, cellsites
acquisition
- poor brand marketing
communications
- high rate of employee turnover
Opportunities
S-O Strategies
W-O Strategies
- expand reach to include
- take advantage of
- improve satellite facilities as well
rural, overseas
expansion opportunities
as other kinds of
consumer base
both locally and abroad
telecommunications equipment
- new mobile applications,
- investment in research and
- increase advertising presence
browsing plans, etc.
development to tap into
- continued and introduction of
- heavy reliance on
new innovations
new services addressing
information technology
changing needs of clients
Threats
- lowered service
performance
- strategies of competitors
- rise of social media as a
provider of connectivity
S-T Strategies
- more attractive rates and
pricing
- partnerships with
companies offering
systems using the mobile
phone
W-T Strategies
- competitive assessment and
benchmarking to better finetune own strategies
Globe Telecom has had the advantage over its competitors because of their use of a digital
infrastructure to support its cellular network. Even though this is more expensive for Globe
Telecom, they were able to gain more due to the wide range of services that are offered. However,
Smart has recently transitioned into the same digital infrastructure as Globe. Because of this, success
will be dependent on who will dominate the market segment.
Along with this advantage over other telecommunication companies, Globe is currently
doing technological innovations to make life easier for its customers. The G-pass has been
developed to make riding the MRT easier for the public, it uses an electronic chip system and the
Hypercash Payment System. Globe believes the G-pass will be much appreciated by its subscribers
due to the daily use of the MRT. It is seen that Globe innovates past the cellular service to make
lives of their subscribers much easier.
Company Analysis
TAX INCENTIVES
Foreign investors of the mobile telecommunications sector are given tax incentives for giving funds
to site roll outs and technology upgrades. Globe Telecom being a part of this industry allows them
to have more funds for their research and development of new services, to compensate for their
being second place in holding the market.
RISING COMPETITOR
Smart Communications was able to garner 58.68% of the market during 2005, While Globe
Telecom came in second with only 35.94%. Consumers care more about the prices and packages
that are being offered, hence Smart being able to cater to the masses with their low prices and
packages that they were able to garner the largest portion of the market. However, Globe is
compensating by innovating more services such as the G-cash.
INCREASE OF SUBSCRIBERS
A significant increase of subscribers was seen during the 3rd quarter of 2006 for both Globe and
Smart. For globe it was from 12,403,575 in 2005 to 14,467,985 in 2006. Globe plans to tap the
lower segment of the market hoping to reach 50% of the total population. Smart which is currently
the major player in that segment will have a new competitor when Globe starts gearing its marketing
efforts towards the rural area/lowersegment.
Risks
INVESTMENT RISKS
INDUSTRY RISKS
Income Statement
2010
2011
2012
2013
75,735.40
81,518.20
86,446.10
95,141.00
--
376.8
225.5
302.7
TOTAL REVENUES
75,735.40
81,895.00
86,671.70
95,443.70
17,741.00
19,601.90
20,380.40
23,211.50
GROSS PROFIT
57,994.40
62,293.10
66,291.30
72,232.30
23,419.60
27,420.60
31,326.40
35,708.70
18,085.80
18,941.20
18,502.90
18,411.50
-173.3
-172.5
-172.5
-172.5
41,332.20
46,189.30
49,656.90
53,947.70
OPERATING INCOME
16,662.20
16,103.80
16,634.50
18,284.50
Interest Expense
-1,981.80
-2,059.70
-2,086.10
-2,091.90
218.5
297.4
579.9
688.2
-1,763.30
-1,762.30
-1,506.20
-1,403.70
-3
-27.3
-83.6
-80
465.4
-308.6
318.3
-486.3
-1,153.80
-185.9
-257.8
-333.6
14,207.50
13,819.60
15,105.20
15,981.10
--
--
-5,080.50
-9,066.00
42.4
64.3
Trend
Revenues
Other Revenues
32.5
319.3
-201.9
-80.7
-315.6
-114.6
Legal Settlements
-138.8
47.9
-56.3
-88.3
14,038.20
14,058.10
9,751.50
6,864.80
4,293.60
4,253.60
2,906.30
1,904.50
9,744.60
9,804.60
6,845.30
4,960.20
NET INCOME
9,744.60
9,804.60
6,845.30
4,960.20
9,699.20
9,769.30
6,812.10
4,936.40
9,699.20
9,769.30
6,812.10
4,936.40
Balance Sheet
Currency in
Millions of Philippines Pesos as of:
12/31/2010
1/1/2012
12/31/2012
5,159
6,759.80
12/31/2013
Assets
Cash And Equivalents
5,869
11.7
--
--
5,880.70
5,159.00
6,759.80
7,420.70
8,170.50
10,119.5
0
--
11,426.40
14,140.40
347.9
1,608.00
1,104.40
1,280.60
12,878.80
17,028.90
2,076.20
3,544.90
--
Other Receivables
--
7,420.70
658.6
--
TOTAL RECEIVABLES
8,829.10
Inventory
1,839.30
10,119.5
0
1,911.20
983.5
5,586.40
1,050.70
949.2
4,052.10
788.1
11,262.90
6,687.40
21,584.80
34,028.40
35,631.20
274,022.50
285,842.00
172,600.10
-175,417.90
101,422.40
110,424.10
327.1
327.1
324.6
385.5
5,811.80
4,556.30
Prepaid Expenses
Other Current Assets
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS
Goodwill
327.1
23,564.2
0
251,078.
00
151,810.
20
99,267.8
0
327.1
Long-Term Investments
298.9
249
239,155.50
Accumulated Depreciation
-137,318.20
101,837.30
1,263.00
--
670.6
864.9
1,016.90
1,916.90
Other Intangibles
2,921.30
3,264.40
3,466.80
3,513.50
1,725.00
2,527.90
1,613.80
2,324.40
130,628.00
130,065.
30
148,011.80
159,078.90
TOTAL ASSETS
5,617.40
Accrued Expenses
14,325.40
Short-Term Borrowings
--
23,041.4
0
--
8,837.70
11,540.60
18,489.10
26,350.00
1,756.80
2,053.90
5,219.90
8,677.20
9,597.40
9,294.90
6,131.80
1,098.50
1,157.90
1,341.60
1,028.30
1,015.50
958.4
931.7
362.9
4,575.20
2,474.10
4,877.10
4,355.90
35,309.10
45,826.00
54,989.30
Long-Term Debt
41,694.30
38,985.9
0
37,324.6
0
--
50,430.60
58,100.70
1,342.30
1,018.00
Capital Leases
640.9
--
--
843.9
1,607.30
4,620.50
3,667.40
2,271.30
1,494.10
2,501.60
1,599.70
1,724.30
83,758.80
102,313.80
117,439.70
792.6
792.6
792.6
792.6
TOTAL LIABILITIES
Preferred Stock Convertible
792.6
82,479.6
0
--
792.6
--
Common Stock
--
6,617.40
7,410.20
6,620.30
6,629.80
26,536.80
26,683.10
26,980.00
Retained Earnings
12,466.60
26,557.3
0
13,449.2
0
169.1
11,655.60
7,715.30
-53.6
-478.4
47,585.7
0
47,585.7
0
130,065.
30
44,905.40
40,846.70
45,698.00
41,639.30
148,011.80
159,078.90
455.7
46,076.60
TOTAL EQUITY
46,869.10
130,628.00
12/31/2010
12/31/2011
12/31/2012
12/31/2103
9,744.60
9,804.60
6,845.30
4,960.20
Depreciation &
Amortization
Amortization Of
Goodwill And
Intangible
Assets
DEPRECIATION
&
AMORTIZATIO
N, TOTAL
Amortization Of
Deferred
Charges
(Gain) Loss
From Sale Of
Asset
Asset
Writedown &
Restructuring
Costs
Other
Operating
Activities
(Income) Loss
On Equity
Investments
Change In
Accounts
Receivable
Change In
Inventories
Change In
Accounts
Payable
Change In
Unearned
Revenues
Change In
Other Working
Capital
CASH FROM
OPERATIONS
Capital
Expenditure
Sale Of
Property, Plant,
And Equipment
Sale (Purchase)
Of Intangible
Assets
Investments In
Marketable &
Equity
Securities
CASH FROM
INVESTING
Short-Term
Debt Issued
Long-Term
Debt Issued
17,339
842
18,941
--
17,371.10
16,851.50
1,251.70
1,690.10
18,181
18,941.20
18,622.80
18,541.50
110.6
116.6
103.5
132
-32.5
-319.2
-42.4
-64.3
63.1
128.6
5,339.70
9,092.30
1,444.60
1,555.00
152.8
-1,423.30
27.3
83.6
80
-1,932.40
-1,678.50
-2,235.80
-3,607.90
-185.6
-67.4
-165
-1,468.30
980.1
2,212.50
2,578.70
2,459.10
-579.1
71.4
28.8
256.7
-753.8
-954.3
-7,102.90
4,224.90
27,148.40
29,887.20
24,220.50
33,232.90
-17,552.20
-18,007.10
-20,124.50
-28,999.50
113.3
180.9
70.1
105.8
-169.3
-145.2
-152.1
-102
2.8
-79
-21
-59
-16,928.80
-18,150.80
-24,616.30
-27,368.00
1,000.00
1,738.60
5,052.40
3,428.90
14,182.00
8,000.00
25,847.80
16,695.00
TOTAL DEBT
ISSUED
Short Term
Debt Repaid
Long Term
Debt Repaid
TOTAL DEBT
REPAID
Issuance Of
Common Stock
Common
Dividends Paid
Preferred
Dividends Paid
TOTAL
DIVIDEND PAID
Special
Dividend Paid
Other
Financing
Activities
CASH FROM
FINANCING
Foreign
Exchange Rate
Adjustments
NET CHANGE
IN CASH
15,182.00
-3,000.80
9,738.60
--
30,900.20
20,123.90
-4,694.00
-432.1
-8,986.30
-11,552.50
-12,810.10
-13,613.50
-11,987.10
-11,552.50
-17,504.10
-14,045.60
5.5
0.8
16.5
44.7
-5,293.90
-8,205.60
-8,605.60
-8,876.80
-50.5
-45.4
-35.3
-57
-5,344.40
-8,251.00
-8,640.90
-8,933.70
-5,293.90
--
--
--
-2,734.00
-2,456.80
-2,573.70
-2,665.50
-10,172.00
-12,520.90
2,197.90
-5,476.20
-118.5
74.5
-201.3
272.2
-70.9
-709.9
1,600.70
661