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Rainfall Probability/Return Rainfall Probability/Return Frequency Frequency Q y Q y AGSM 335 AGSM 335

The document discusses rainfall probability and return frequency, which are important concepts for planners and designers. It defines duration as the length of a storm, intensity as the rainfall rate, and return frequency as the statistical likelihood of an event based on historical data. Common return periods used in design are 5-10 years for rural roads and 50-100 years for highways. Intensity-duration-frequency curves show rainfall amounts for different durations and return periods.

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Nhan Do
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51 views12 pages

Rainfall Probability/Return Rainfall Probability/Return Frequency Frequency Q y Q y AGSM 335 AGSM 335

The document discusses rainfall probability and return frequency, which are important concepts for planners and designers. It defines duration as the length of a storm, intensity as the rainfall rate, and return frequency as the statistical likelihood of an event based on historical data. Common return periods used in design are 5-10 years for rural roads and 50-100 years for highways. Intensity-duration-frequency curves show rainfall amounts for different durations and return periods.

Uploaded by

Nhan Do
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Rainfall Probability/Return

Frequency
q
y
AGSM 335

READING ASSIGNMENT
CHAPTER 5 OF TEXT
AND
Chapter 2 of handouts (web)

Rainfall Probability/Return
Frequency
BIG 12 MINUS 2

APRIL JUNE, 2004

Rainfall /Return Frequency


Required to assist planners
Main parameters
Duration,
Duration Intensity and Return Frequency

DURATION --- Length of storm (time, hr)


INTENSITY --- Rate of storm (length/time,
in/hr)

Rainfall /Return Frequency


Return frequency is based on
statistical analysis
Not based on hydrologic laws
Assumes that rainfall / flood flow rates
are independent of external
influence.
For flood analysis, it means that there
can be no changes of land use in a
watershed.

Rainfall / Return Frequency


and Duration
Return frequency used in analysis:
Depends on economic value
Rural roads (not much traffic) 5
to 10 year return
Interstate highways 50 to 100
year return period

Rainfall / Return Frequency


and Duration
Design duration depends on size of
watershed
Small to medium watersheds (1 to
100 mi2)
Duration of 5 minutes to 24 hours
Large watersheds (over 100 mi2) up
to 1 mo. duration
River basin studies up to 1 yr may
be needed

Intensity (rainfall rate)


Duration Frequency Curves
IDF curves have been developed for many
cities and locations around the U.S.
Rainfall amount found by:
Multiplying the duration by the intensity

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curves

FROM HANDOUT NOTES

Return period = 10 years


6 hour storm, intensity = 0.6 in/hr
Rainfall depth = intensity x time
= 0.6 in/hr x 6 hr = 3.6 inches

Rainfall Frequency Distribution

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curves


Return period = 25 years
24 hour storm, intensity = 0.24 in/hr

For COLLEGE STATION


Precipitation
p
= 1.3 times 3.6 in
Or 4.68 inches

Figure 5.5 in TEXT

Rainfall depth = intensity x time


= 0.24 in/hr x 24 hr = 5.76
inches

25 year, 24 hour rainfall

Rainfall Frequency Distribution

Rainfall Frequency Distribution

For COLLEGE STATION


Precipitation = 1.3 times 5.76 in
Or 7.48 inches

Figure 5.5 in TEXT

25--year 2425
24-HOUR Rainfall

Rainfall Frequency Distribution


For COLLEGE STATION
Precipitation = 1.3 times 5.76 inches =
7.48 inches VERSUS 8.8 inches

FROM HANDOUTS

50 year, 24 hour rainfall

Rainfall Frequency Distribution

FROM HANDOUTS

100 year, 24 hour rainfall

Rainfall Frequency Distribution

Rainfall / Flood Return


Frequency
The 2525-yr, 2424-hr rainfall for Houston = 10
in. (SEE NEXT FIGURE)
This means that in 100 yrs a 10
rainfall event will occur four times.
It does not mean that a 10 rainfall
event will happen every 25 years.

FROM HANDOUTS

25--yr, 24
25
24--hr Rainfall (inches)

Rainfall / Flood Return


Frequency
The probability of a 2525-yr event in any
given year is a 4% chance [(1/25)*100]
Likewise a 10 yr event = 10% chance
[(1/10)*100]
Likewise a 50 yr event = 2% chance
[(1/50)*100]

The Hazen Method

Probability
Return period for rainfall events and
floods. Important for planners and
designers.
May
y have only
y 10 or 15 years
y
of data
Need to extrapolate to predict 25 or 50 or 100
year events.
Many statistical methods can be used
The Hazen method is commonly used by the
Natural Resource Conservation Service
(NRCS).

1. Start with a long


long--term data set.
Long--term is at least 10 good data points.
Long
2. Apply statistical algorithms to get distribution.
3. Plot the distribution points on loglog-probability
paper.
paper
4. Draw a bestbest-fit line that minimizes the
distance each point is off of the line.
5. Read off the values associated with the best fit
line.

Given: Annual Precipitation


Lubbock Texas, 1944 to 2009

Given: Annual Precipitation


Lubbock Texas, 1944 to 2009

YEAR

PRECIP, in

YEAR

PRECIP, in

YEAR

PRECIP, in

YEAR

PRECIP, in

YEAR

PRECIP, in

YEAR

PRECIP, in

1944

22.5

1957

24.6

1970

12.6

1983

20.2

1996

14.1

2009

12.9

1945

12.8

1958

17.6

1971

20.2

1984

17.8

1997

22.7

1946

20.1

1959

16.2

1972

25.1

1985

23.2

1998

13.1

1947

13.9

1960

22.2

1973

17.9

1986

26.6

1999

20.2

AVERAGE

18.3

1948

11.9

1961

18.8

1974

24.0

1987

18.8

2000

21.3

1949

29 4
29.4

1962

18 4
18.4

1975

17 7
17.7

1988

13 1
13.1

2001

15 6
15.6

1950

15.1

1963

16.2

1976

20.1

1989

17.8

2002

19.3

1951

15.5

1964

14.2

1977

16.2

1990

15.8

2003

8.8

1952

13.8

1965

14.2

1978

13.7

1991

17.8

2004

33.3

1953

12.3

1966

18.4

1979

20.8

1992

22.4

2005

15

1954

14.0

1967

20.6

1980

15.9

1993

12.8

2006

15.6

1955

16.8

1968

19.4

1981

23.0

1994

13.1

2007

23.9

1956

10.8

1969

29.2

1982

21.0

1995

18.8

2008

28.0

The Hazen Method


Step 1:
Re--order rainfall
Re
records high to low
Step 2:
Assign rank (n)
Step 3:
Calculate Plotting
Position

The Hazen Method


Step 4:
Use the loglog-probability graph paper to
plot:
R i f ll on the
Rainfall
th yy-axis
i (log
(l scale!,
l ! so be
b
careful).
Probability of Occurrence (Fa) on the xxaxis.
Use the top xx-axis to be consistent
with the text.

Rainfall Frequency
Distribution
HAZEN METHOD
Fa = 100(2n100(2n-1)/2y = 100/Return Period
Where n = rank
rank, y = number of points in
data set and Fa is the Plotting Position or
PROBABILITY.
EXAMPLE:
If Return Period is 2 years the, the
Probability is 50%.

The Hazen Method


Step 5:
After all points are plotted:
Draw a bestbest
best-fit
bestfit line on the graph
Try to minimize the distance the
points are off of the line.

Precip

Precip

in

Rank

Fa

in

Rank

Fa

33.3

0.76

20.2

21

31.06

29.4

2.27

20.2

22

32.58

29.2

3.79

20.1

23

34.09

28.0

5.30

20.1

24

35.61

26.6

6.82

19.4

25

37.12

25.1

8.33

19.3

26

38.64

24.6

9.85

18.8

27

40.15

24.0

11.36

18.8

28

41.67

23.9

12.88

18.8

29

43.18

23.2

10

14.39

18.4

30

44.70

23.0

11

15.91

18.4

31

46.21

22.7

12

17.42

17.9

32

47.73

22.5

13

18.94

17.8

33

49.24

22.4

14

20.45

17.8

34

50.76

22.2

15

21.97

17.8

35

52.27

21.3

16

23.48

17.7

36

53.79

21.0

17

25.00

17.6

37

55.30

20.8

18

26.52

16.8

38

56.82

20.6

19

28.03

16.2

39

58.33

20.2

20

29.55

16.2

40

59.85

Precip

Precip

in

Rank

Fa

in

Rank

Fa

16.2

41

61.36

12.8

61

91.67

15.9

42

62.88

12.6

62

93.18

15.8

43

64.39

12.3

63

94.70

15.6

44

65.91

11.9

64

96.21

15.6

45

67.42

10.8

65

97.73

15.5

46

68.94

8.8

66

99.24

15.1

47

70.45

15.0

48

71.97

14 2
14.2

49

73 48
73.48

14.2

50

75.00

14.1

51

76.52

14.0

52

78.03

13.9

53

79.55

13.8

54

81.06

13.7

55

82.58

13.1

56

84.09

13.1

57

85.61

13.1

58

87.12

12.9

59

88.64

12.8

60

90.15

The Hazen Method / Step 6


Use the best fit line to find the amount of
rainfall associated with a given return
period.
For example:
What is the rainfall for a 22-yr storm
event?

10

The Hazen Method / Step 6

The Hazen Method / Step 6

Probability of Occurrence = 1/2


1/2--yr =
0.5 = 50%
Go to 50 on the top axis
Come down vertically to the bestbestfit line
Go horizontally to the yy-axis and
read the rainfall value
I get 18 in.

What is the rainfall for a 22-yr storm


event?
1st calculate
al ulate the probability of
occurrence for a 22-yr event
Probability of Occurrence = 1/2
1/2--yr =
0.5 = 50%

RETURN PERIOD, years


70

Fa = 50 %
Return period = 2 years

100

50

25

10

70

68

68

66

66

64

64

62

62

60

60

58

58

PRECIPIT
TATION, in

56

LONG TERM AVERAGE = 18.3 in

56

54

54

PROBABILITY PAPER
available on the course
web site

52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38

52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38

36

36

34

34

32

32

30

30

28

28

26

26

24

24

22

22

20

20

18
16
0.5

18
1

3 4 5 6 7 8 10

15

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

85

90 92

95

97

99

16
99.9

PROBABILITY OF OCCURANCE, Fa (%)

11

Rainfall Probability
PROBABILITY that given returnreturn-period
storm will occur at least once within a
given number of years.
n

P(T,n) = 1 {1 1/T } ,

Rainfall Probability
What is the PROBABILITY that a 5050-year
return-period storm will occur during
returnthe first 5 years of a construction
project.
j t
n

Where P(T,n) is the probability that a T


year return
return--period will occur at least
once during n years.

P(T,n) = 1 {1 1/T } ,
P(50,5) = 1 {1 1/50}5 = 0.096

APPROXIMATELY 10 %

12

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