www.pwc.

com/aerospaceanddefence

Aerospace & Defence

2011 year in review
and 2012 forecast

We look at how aerospace

and defence companies
perform todayand
what challenges and
opportunities they
will face tomorrow.

Contents

Aerospace and defence industry delivers a

second consecutive year of record revenues and profits

Commercial aerospace leads the way

Defence 12
Mergers and acquisitions

21

In summary

23

Methodology

Our data is based on the fiscal 2011

results for the largest 100 aerospace
and defence companies, by revenue,
with publicly available financial
reports. Our cut-off for publication
was March 31, 2012. Accordingly,
a few companies were omitted
because they had not reported
results by the cut-off.
A&D companies include those that
generate the majority of revenue from
aerospace and defence activities,
or for diversified companies, those
reportable segments that derive a

iv

majority of revenue from aerospace

and defence activities. The results
are reported in U.S. dollars. Foreign
currencies were translated at average
exchange rates for the years ended
December 31, 2011 and 2010,
respectively.
Our report also expresses PwCs
point of view on topics affecting the
industry. Our viewpoints have been
developed based on our interactions
with our clients and other industry
leaders and analysts.

PwC

Summary table
US$ billions

2011

2010

Change

Revenue

$677

$648

5%

Operating profit

$60.0

$59.1

2%

Operating margin

8.86%

9.13%

-27 bps
Source: PwC

Aerospace and defence industry

delivers a second consecutive
year of record revenues and
profits

Our research indicates that the

aerospace and defence (A&D)
industry reported its best year ever
in 2011 in terms of revenue and
profit on the strength of a surging
commercial aviation market that
more than offset a soft defence
performance. The industry had
to overcome a nearly $5 billion
decline in the operating profit of
Finmeccanica to achieve the record
profit results. For 2011 the top
100 A&D companies reported
$677 billion in revenue and
$60.0 billion in operating profit,
setting records. Revenue was higher
by 5% compared with 2010, while
operating profit was up 2% over
2010. Operating margin dropped
27 basis points to 8.86%.
The mood in commercial aerospace
is described by industry leaders
as optimistic. Air traffic is strong
and steady, driving the lucrative
aftermarket business; the industry
delivered a record number of large
aircraft and the orders continue,
driving record backlogmore than
eight yearsat current production rates. Times are so good,
some people are asking whether
theres a bubble. While there are
risks, particularly the availability
of aircraft financing, we believe
it is real. Recent volatility in oil
prices threatens to derail nearterm economic growth; however,
forecasted demand is based on
reasonable assumptions about
long-term economic growth and
demographics. More importantly,
backlogs provide a significant
cushion between demand and
current production rates that could
absorb any reasonably anticipated
softening in demand.

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

Aerospace and defence industry delivers a second consecutive year of revenues and profits

The mood in defence might be

described as pensive due largely to
the uncertainty over the prospect of
sequestration in the United States.
While the industry is prepared to
absorb projected U.S. budget cuts
of about $500 billion over the next
decade, the situation could become
significantly more challenging if
sequestration is not averted, which
would trigger automatic cuts to
defence spending. While many
believe such cuts could result in
unacceptable risks to national

security, it is difficult to predict how

the political process will evolve,
especially in a presidential
election year.
Defence companies face more
pressure than ever to improve
productivity, increase transparency,
respond to increasingly complex
government regulations and
oversight, tighter schedules, and
generally higher expectations.
Persistent security threats, the
Iranian nuclear threat, and

Largest increase in revenue (dollars)

EADS

$7,729M

Largest increase in revenue (percentage)

Triumph Group

124%

Largest increase in profit (dollars)

Thales

$1,282M

Largest increase in profit (percentage)

Thales

471%

Highest operating margin

Transdigm

40.4%

Largest decrease in revenue (dollars)

Oshkosh Defense -$2,797M

Largest decrease in revenue (percentage) Oshkosh Defense -39%

Largest decrease in profit (dollars)

Finmeccanica

-4,949M

Largest decrease in profit (percentage)

Finmeccanica

-303%

geopolitical instability, as witnessed

recently in the Middle East,
underscore the need for global
security and could rapidly change
defence priorities.
During the past decade, the A&D
industry has demonstrated a more
disciplined management approach
through economic cycles, which
has resulted in steady revenue and
earnings growth and culminated
in back-to-back record years of
revenues and profit.

Largest
increase in
top 100 list

Largest
decrease in
top 100 list

Triumph Group
increased 26 spots
from #69 to #43

Oshkosh Defense
dropped 14 spots
from #19 to #33

Source: PwC

PwC

Commercial aerospace
leads the way
Record deliveries and backlog, new aircraft
launches, and first flights

Airliner market viewNew orders

3,000

Number of aircraft

2,500

537

1,500

433

1,000
500
0

367

967

2,000

112

139

386

405

357

435

2001

2002

2003

2004

240

(626
Total)

(517
Total)

(496
Total)

167

(602
Total)

1,430

1,330

505
1,683

1,159

309

149

2,111

1,104

475

2005
(1967
Total)

Widebody Jet

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

2006
(1763
Total)

2007
(2650
Total)

Year ending

Narrowbody Jet

2008
(1664
Total)

2009
(624
Total)

2010
(1413
Total)

2011
(2478
Total)

Source: ACAS (February 2011)

Boeing was, again, the industrys

largest company, reporting
$68.7 billion in revenue, a 7%
increase, on the strength of
commercial aircraft deliveries.
EADS increased revenue from
45.8 billion to 49.1 billion, also
7% (13% when translated into U.S.
dollars). EADS reported the largest
revenue growth, $7.7 billion, nearly
grabbing the top spot on our list,
finishing narrowly behind Boeing by
only $407 million. Predominantly
commercial aerospace companies
generally reported strong revenue
growth. United Technologies, GE
Aviation, and Honeywell Aerospace
also reported 7% growth. Companies reporting double-digit growth
include Safran, Goodrich, Precision
Castparts, Harris, and Spirit Aerosystems. Triumph Group reported the
largest revenue percentage increase,
124%, on the strength of its acquisition of Vought. Triumph also made
the largest upward movement on
the list, advancing 26 spots to #43.
Oshkosh Defense reported the largest
drop in revenue and profit as a result
of lower M-ATV production due to
the decreasing tempo of operations in
Iraq and Afghanistan.

Commercial aerospace leads the way

Boeing was also the industrys most profitable company, with $5.844 billion
in operating profit, an increase of 18%. Thales reported the largest profit
percentage increase, 471%, due to the absence of large programme charges
recognised in 2010 for Meltem Marine Patrol and A400M. Industry operating margin decreased 27 basis points to 8.86%. Despite the record results,
the industry as a whole continues to find double-digit operating margin
elusive. The industrys best operating margin belongs to Transdigm, at
40.4%, down slightly from 43.8% the prior year.

Globalisation
The A&D industry continues to globalise. Companies are reporting increased
foreign direct investment, with the rate approximately doubling from a
decade ago. For investments in manufacturing, China and India have been
the top targets. The United States is third, on the strength of its market
size and capabilities. Fourth on the list is Mexico, which has developed
an aerospace manufacturing niche. India was the top target for R&D
investments, while China came in seventh, presumably because of concerns
over intellectual property protection. The United States was the second most
popular target for aerospace and defence R&D investments.

Investments by Top 50 Global A&D companies in international markets

32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

9
6
9
4
1
2
7

2000

2001

2002

Manufacturing

7
13

2
3

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

R&D

2008

21

18
12

2009

2010

2011

Source: Company Reports

PwC

Commercial aerospace leads the way

2012 forecast and risks

For 2012, we expect more of the same based on the trends revealed by the
data. We expect continued growth in commercial aerospace, resulting from
strong and steady demand for global aviation and increased commercial
aircraft production. In the early part of 2012, economic indicators are
generally positive. However, geopolitical risk with Iran is driving up
oil prices, which could threaten the fragile economic recovery. Also,
programme management risk is always present, in particular supply chain
risk. PwCs analysis indicates that total aircraft production will grow at
10% compounded annual growth through 2016, placing significant strain
on the supply chain. A recent PwC study found that 21% of the supply
base demonstrates significant capacity and/or financial risk. Furthermore,
the Japanese tsunami has caused companies to take a closer look at
geographical risk and sole source arrangements. While revenue is expected
to rise, there is a significant risk that return on sales could drop due to supply
chain inefficiencies. During prior periods of growth, raw material and supply
shortages have resulted in late deliveries, rush shipments, out-of-sequence
work, and overtime, which have prevented the benefits of higher volume
from dropping to the bottom line.
Defence revenues should, again, be modestly lower. However, recent costcutting actions in the United States and Europe should mitigate the impact
to the bottom line. There are also some risks that are difficult to forecast,
such as the effect of destabilisation of the geopolitical environment in the
Middle East on defence spending. Overall, the industry should report another
strong year in 2012 and quite possibly another record, on the strength of
commercial aerospace.

Historical net orders

3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500

Regional Jet

Widebody

2011

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

1968

1965

1962

1959

Narrowbody
Source: Airline Monitor, Company Reports

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

Commercial aerospace
Record deliveries and backlog, new aircraft launches,
and first flights
The industry delivered a record number of large aircraft, exceeding the
1,000 mark for the first time; Boeing and Airbus each launched new
narrowbody aircraft with unprecedented efficiency improvements;
the second-best year for orders pushed backlog to new highs; and the
787 made its first revenue flight.
Boeing and Airbus delivered, in aggregate, 1,011 aircraft in 2011. Airbus
delivered 421 single-aisle aircraft, or 35 per month, while Boeing delivered
372 single-aisle aircraft, or 31 per month. Both companies have announced
future production rate increases. In addition, Airbus recognised a record
year of 1,419 net orders, while the industry recorded 2,224 net orders
for large commercial aircraft, the second-best year in aviation history,
after 2007, pushing backlog to a new record of 8,208 aircraft, more than
eight years at current production rates. Boeings backlog is at a record
$293 billion and Airbus backlog is at a record $679 billion (at list price),
a 41% increase.

Backlog (US$ billions)

12/31/11

12/31/10

12/31/09

12/31/08

Boeing

$293

$256

$250

$279

Airbus*

$679

$480

$459

$471

* at list price

Aircraft backlog

Boeing

Airbus

Total

3,443

3,552

6,995

Net orders

805

1,419

2,224

Deliveries

477

534

1,011

3,771

4,437

8,208

Backlog at December 31, 2010

Backlog at December 31, 2011

Source: Boeing annual report; EADS annual report

PwC

Commercial aerospace

IATA statistics

2011

2010

Revenue passenger miles

+5.9%

+8.2%

Load

78.1%

78.4%

Cargo freight ton miles

-0.7%

+20.6%

Load

45.9%

53.8%
Source: IATA

For 2011, the International Air Transportation

Association (IATA) reported revenue passenger
growth of 5.9%. This level of demand bodes well
for the 20-year forecast of approximately 33,000
new planes at a value greater than $4 trillion.
Airline profitability is projected to be about
$7 billion globally in 2011. However, rising oil
prices continue to threaten profitability into 2012.

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

Commercial aerospace

Order activity was driven in large part by the launch of two new singleaisle aircraft, the A320NEO and 737MAX. Both offerings are re-engined
versions of the existing models, promising at least 15% efficiency
improvement. To put this in perspective, aircraft engines have achieved
49% efficiency improvement in more than five decades of the jet era, or
about 1% per year. But the gains were greater in the early years and the
industry has averaged only about 0.5% improvement per year in the past
three decades. So, a 15% improvement in one generation is a significant
advance in efficiency.
Fuel efficiency gains since the early jet age
100

% of base (Comet 4)

90

Comet 4
707120

80

747100

70
60

747400

Engine fuel
consumption
777200

DC863

50

Aircraft fuel
burn per seat

40
30

777300ER
787

10
0
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

49%

A380

777200

20

A380
777300ER
787

2000

82%

2010

Year of model introduction

Source: Air Transport Action Group

PwC

Commercial aerospace

The launch of these new, more efficient aircraft unleashed a fury of orders,
both in the expanding Asian market and among U.S. carriers, which have
a significant need to replace an aging fleet of inefficient aircraft, which
are highly vulnerable to volatile fuel prices. But there was also significant
activity in the widebody market as well. In fact, numerous deals in 2011 set
records for deal size:

2011 witnessed several record-setting orders

American Airlines orders 460 narrowbodies,
split between Boeing and Airbus

$40
billion

$19

Southwest orders 208 737s and 737MAXs

AirAsia orders 200 A320s/A320NEOs
Emirates orders 50 777-300 ERs
Indigo orders 180 A320s/A320NEOs

billion

$19

billion

$18

billion

$16

billion

Source: Boeing and EADS press releases

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

Commercial aerospace

Commercial aerospace
2012 forecast: fair skies
but risks loom
For 2012, both Boeing and Airbus
are each expected to deliver near
600 aircraft, a 15% to 20% increase
over 2011. The increase is more
significant for Boeing, driven
primarily by production ramp-up
in 787 and 747. This is a significant
increase for an industry which,
arguably, has the most complex
and longest lead time supply chain.
The challenge will be avoiding prior
issues in raising production rates.
Previous years have witnessed raw
materials shortages, late deliveries,
out-of-sequence work, overtime,
and rush shipments throughout the
supply chain, all of which erode
the benefits of higher volume from
dropping to the bottom line. The
industry will face these challenges
not only in 2012 but in the longer
term as capacity constraints bump
up against eight years of backlog.
Original equipment manufacturers
(OEMs) and suppliers are encouraged to perform thorough supplier
capacity and readiness assessments.
While it is difficult to predict orders,
it is unlikely that orders will keep the
pace of 2011. Already 2012 is off to
a great start. At the Singapore Air
Show, Lion Air announced an order
for 230 Boeing aircraft valued
at $22.4 billion. Thats the largest

10

single order in aviation history.

Separately, Norwegian Air Shuttle
placed orders for 222 narrowbody
aircraft, split between Boeing and
Airbus. Boeing is expected to book
about 1,000 net orders in 2012 and
industry executives anticipate orders
to be around 1,600 to 1,800, pushing
backlog to another new high by the
end of 2012.
For the past three decades, leased
and financed aircraft have steadily
grown to represent about half of the
commercial airline fleet. Leasing
companies have about 16% of the
current backlog, a historic high.
Aircraft lessors will become even
more important as their more
stable business models, diversified
portfolios, and comparatively
higher grade ratings ease their
access to the capital markets.
The European Sovereign debt crisis,
ongoing uncertainty in the financial
markets, and, in particular, the
retreat of the French banks (who
have historically played a dominant
role in the European aviation
financing market) are causing
ongoing tensions in the funding
market. These tensions have been
heightened by the implications for
the banking system that Basel III,
requiring improvement in capital
ratios and tightening of credit
conditions, may result in more
expensive debt where it is available.

A savior of aircraft financing over

the last few years has been Export
Credit Agency (ECA) financing.
Traditionally a backstop, this has
now become the funding source of
choice for many airlines. However,
going forward the new Aircraft
Sector Understanding (ASU) which
governs pricing of ECA financing
will come into force in 2013 and
will result in considerable premium
increases for this financing stream.
Another risk in 2012 is that the
Export Import Bank (EXIM) is close
to its funding limit of $100 billion.
Without further U.S. government
support, a lack of EXIM financing
could threaten both current year
deliveries and future orders.
Furthermore, U.S. airlines are
protesting EXIM on the basis that
it provides advantages to foreign
airlines that are not available to
domestic airlines.

Space
2012 is scheduled to be a big year
for space. Both SpaceX and Orbital
Sciences are scheduled to dock
spacecraft with the International
Space Station under the Commercial
Orbital Transportation Services
(COTS) programme. In addition,
research and development continues
under the Commercial Crew
Development (CCDev) programme.
Companies receiving funding from
NASA for CCDev include Boeing,
SpaceX, United Launch Alliance, Blue
Origin, and Sierra Nevada (NASA
press releases, www.nasa.gov).

PwC

Commercial aerospace

Growth in business jets

Long-term forecast
The long-term forecast for commercial OEM aircraft is more than
30,000 deliveries in the next 20 years at a value of around $4 trillion.
While some have raised questions about whether these forecasts
are optimistic, they are based on solid assumptions about global
economic growth and the rate of aircraft replacement. In fact, the
significant efficiency improvements of new aircraft may accelerate
the demand for replacement aircraft. With long-term demand at
more than 1,500 aircraft per year and current production rates at
1,000 per year, the industry has both a lot of future growth and a
lot of cushion to absorb any softening in demand. Perhaps a key
competitive advantage in the future will go to the company that can
effectively raise production rates fastest to shorten delivery times.
At the same time, new competitors have emerged to try to take
advantage of the growing market. Commercial Aircraft Corporation
of China (COMAC) has launched its C919 aircraft with first scheduled
deliveries in 2016. COMAC is projecting to sell more than 2,000
planes, or about 7% market share. In addition, Irkut of Russia has
launched a narrowbody aircraft and Bombardier is marketing its
CSeries. Embraer has elected to stay in its regional niche and not
enter the increasingly crowded narrowbody market.
Market value: $4,060 billion
Share of fleet

Delivery units
2%

100%

22%

The business jet rebound continues

to be elusive and slower than was
expected at the beginning of the
year. Positive signs in the first half
of the year were eroded by weakness in the back half of the year,
and overall cycles for the year were
only modestly higher, leaving the
business jet industry still more than
10% below the 2007 peak.
Companies are reporting that
business jet backlogs have been
cut approximately in half since the
start of the recession. The recovery
in business jets is expected to track
the overall Western economic
recovery, which continues to be
slow. Therefore, business jets
should see another year of modest
improvement. The medium to
long term for business jets should
see significant growth, driven by
economic growth and adapting
regulations in Asia and the Middle
East, particularly in China. These
longer routes favour the larger
segment of the business jet market.

6%

75%
50%
25%
70%
0%

Large

2010
Airplanes
19,410

2030
Airplanes
39,530

Twin aisle

Single aisle

2011 to 2030
New airplanes
33,500

Regional jets

Source: Boeing

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

11

Defence
U.S. defence contractors have a flat year,
while European colleagues fared a little
worse

The top six U.S. defence companies

reported revenues down about
1% and profits up about 1%.1 This
is not surprising since the U.S.
defence budget was essentially flat.
The only thing certain about the
future defence budget is that it will
be lower, but its anyones guess
how much. The presidents budget
proposes a modest 1% decrease in
the fiscal 2013 budget and approximately $500 billion in cuts over
the next decade, or approximately
10%. However, many members of
Congress strongly oppose this level
of cuts. Furthermore, the budget
battle is taking place against a
backdrop of a presidential election
and an impending sequestration,
which could require even deeper
cuts. The future defence budget will
likely be significantly shaped by the
2012 elections.
During 2012 European defence
ministries started to deal with
the detailed consequences of
budgetary reductions by cutting
and re-profiling programmes and
reducing platform numbers. This
process has yet to fully unwind,
leading to considerable uncertainty
in the supply base as companies
struggle to manage both the impact
of known reductions and the risk of
uncertain future reductions. Initiatives to preserve capability at the
same or lower cost have burgeoned
(in Germany, Sweden, Norway, and
the UK, for example) and there has

1Annual earnings reports: Boeing, Lockheed

Martin, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman,
Raytheon, and L-3

12

PwC

Defence

been a growing appetite for capability and cost-sharing between nations.

The NATO Secretary-Generals Smart Defence initiative seeks to achieve
this for the Alliance, and bilateral arrangements such as the Anglo-French
Defence Co-Operation Treaty seek collaboration in a range of activity from
military operations to acquisition. NATOs operations in Libya highlighted
the importance of being able to respond to unforeseen eventsthe return
to contingencyand of a strong blend of European capabilities able to
be deployed at short notice. Though the Libyan operation was relatively
short-lived, it suggested capability gaps that European nations will find
difficult to plug while under the current financial pressures.
Just as European defence companies come to terms with decline in their
traditional markets, so they are simultaneously pursuing opportunities
in growth markets; the Middle East, Brazil, South East Asia, and India all
offer growth, although there is strong competition and in-country barriers
to entry can be challenging.

Backlog (US$ billions)

12/31/11

12/31/10

Lockheed Martin

$81

$78

EADS Defence

$73

$83

Finmeccanica

$64

$70

BAE Systems

$58

$63

Boeing Defense, Space & Security

$46

$48

Thales

$43

$34

General Dynamics (exc. Gulfstream)

$40

$42

Northrop Grumman

$40

$64

Raytheon

$35

$36

L-3

$11

$11

Total

$491

$511
Source: Company reports

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

13

Defence

Exports
The growth of defence export deals has led to a record backlog of
$327 billion at mid-year 2011. We have in excess of 13,000 active
cases with more than 165 countries and institutions, adding up to
about $327 billion, said Vice Admiral Bill Landay at a Pentagon news
briefing ahead of the Paris Air Show. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S. foreign military sales (FMS) agreements and

direct commercial sales authorizations
200

USD bil

160
120
107

80
40

47

55

52

53

62

67

11

11

12

12

13

13

67

52
9

18

123

154

29

30

24

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Direct commercial sales authorizations

Saudi Arabia will buy 84 F-15s

and upgrades to 70 others,
worth $30 billion (Bloomberg)
India selects Dassault Rafale
fighters worth $10 billion (BBC)

89

18

One bright area of opportunity

for defence contractors has been
exports. The annual volume of U.S.
defence export sales agreements
has more than doubled from 2006
through 2010 (the most recent
year of available data). Much of
the growth during this period has
been in Asia due to concerns over
Chinas growing military power and
tensions between North Korea and
South Korea, and in the Middle East
due to concern over Irans military
ambitions. Some highlights from
2011 include:

Foreign military sales (FMS) agreements

Source: US Department of Defense, US Department of State

Japan selects F-35 for next

generation fighter, in a deal
worth approximately $8 billion
(Washington Post)
Taiwan to upgrade F-16 fleet
worth $6 billion (Business Week)
The United Arab Emirates
buys THAAD missiles worth
$3.5 billion (Bloomberg)
India buys 10 C-17s worth
$2 billion (India Times)

Future export opportunities

include:
Turkey affirms plans to buy 100
F-35s worth $16 billion (Reuters)
South Korea gears up for a jet
fighter competition (Defense
Industry Daily)

14

PwC

Defence

Defence forecast
The current focus remains on
affordability. The U.S. Defense
Department now lists affordability
among its procurement criteria on
its website. Contractors need to stay
focused on improving productivity.
We are entering a period of fewer
new platforms. But at the same
time, there is a need to recapitalise
equipment. So, the focus will shift
from new platforms to platform
upgrades and sustainment. Its
nearly impossible to predict the
overall health of the defence
industry beyond a few years
down the road. The uncertainty
of sequestration, the presidential
election, the U.S. militarys role in
world affairs, a tightening Pentagon
budget, the growing threat of Irans
nuclear weapons programme,
continued threats of terrorism, the
possible fall of governments in the
Middle East, and other factors will
influence the long-term picture.
The fiscal 2012 U.S. defence budget
is roughly flat, and the proposed
2013 budget reflects only a modest
decrease, so we expect another year
of flat performance for the defence
industry in 2012.
During 2012 we will start to
see some stability return to
the European defence markets

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

as defence ministries work

through the rounds of budget
cuts instigated two years ago.
There is little likelihood of any
budgetary increases until 2015 and
it may be necessary to pare some
defence budgets still further if the
Eurozones austerity measures
have to be tightened. The UK will
announce a balanced defence
programme (London Times) for
the first time in a generation, which
will provide clarity for OEMs after
some years of uncertainty. At the
same time, accelerated transition
in Afghanistan will start to manifest
itself in rationalizing in-theater
equipment and logistic support and
an increase in logistic movement as
military materiel is redeployed. The
next few years will see an enhanced
tempo of equipment refurbishment
as a result, though the extent of
this, and its effect on industry, has
yet to be quantified.
European nations will continue
their various transformation
programmes aimed at preserving
capability at lower cost and will
import many of the ideas and
concepts pioneered in the UK a few
years ago; we will see an increase
in availability contracting for land,
sea, and air platforms, plus an

increasing appetite for industry-led

solutions in the provision of
training, infrastructure, and back
office shared services. We will also
see programmes for industry take
on more complex and broader
rolesthe UKs Materiel Strategy
may prove to be a pioneering
approach. The drive for exports
will also continue and will remain
fiercely competitive as global
defence industry competes in the
growth markets.
So while the traditional, platform,
and equipment-based defence
markets in Europe remain under
intense pressure, opportunities exist
for industry more broadly to deliver
service-based capabilities in many
countries. In the UK, the whole
of the defence support services
market is projected to be worth an
estimated 16 billion per year by
2020, or approximately 75% of total
MoD spend with industry; these
trends will accelerate in Europe
(PwC assessment based on public
domain sources, 2012).

15

Defence

Here are three challenges the industry might consider to thrive in

the future:

Innovation
Investment in innovation during a period of tight budgets will be critical
to the health of the defence industrial base and global security. Historically,
innovation in defence research and development leads to myriad
commercial applications, such as the Internet, GPS, and commercial satellite
communications. Once the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter completes development,
there will be no military fighter aircraft in development for the first time
since the innovation of flight. In addition, the United States needs to rapidly
crystallise its exploration strategy, where many new technologies are born.
The threat environment is also unpredictable. For example, while the
capabilities of Chinas J-20 fifth-generation fighter are still unknown, the
threat is years ahead of prediction. The United States should consider
preserving its specialised aircraft engineering talent to develop the
sixth-generation fighter.

16

PwC

Defence

Productivity: getting leaner

The Pentagon has been placing an emphasis on affordability and has now
formally included affordability on its website as an evaluation criterion for
procurement decisions. Accordingly, defence contractors have made moves
to reduce costs and improve productivity. We compared defence companies
to companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on the basis
of revenue per employee using data from company earnings statements
and company profiles. We acknowledge that revenue per employee is an
imperfect measure. A better measure would be value added per employee,
but since that data is not available, we used revenue per employee as a
reasonable surrogate. In this comparison, we see that defence contracts
are about half as productive as the DJIA.2 We believe there are some valid
reasons why defence companies have lower productivity, including:
Limits on profitability Much of defence revenue is under costreimbursable, or cost-based, fixed price contracts, where revenues are
limited based on profit limitations. Defence contractor profitability is
typically a little more than half of the DJIA.
Development of leading technologies Defence contractors are
frequently developing cutting-edge technologies, which are inherently
manually intensive and involve some trial and error.
Extremely low volumes Many defence contracts are for single units or
quantities measured in the dozens or hundreds, compared to commercial
enterprises that typically measure volumes in the millions of units. The
low volumes result in manually intensive manufacturing and assembly
and low absorption of fixed costs in a capital-intensive industry.
Regulation The industry is highly regulated, which can increase
compliance costs, including compliance with federal acquisition
regulations (FAR) and cost accounting standards (CAS) and export
controls (International Traffic In Arms).

Despite these inherent limitations, the industry recognises there is room

for improvements in productivity and many companies have been taking
actions to reduce overhead costs, including workforce reductions, early
retirements, and facilities consolidation. Other challenges include direct
product costs, which will be more challenging. We believe the following
areas offer opportunities:
Programme management/shortened development cycle
Supply chain management
Information technology
Knowledge management

2PwC report, Defense: The affordability imperative

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

17

Defence

Improving the speed and effectiveness of programme development

usually produces the biggest gains
in affordability. Schedule delays are
the biggest factor in budget overruns. While contractors take pride
in their programme management
abilities, the industry must seek
continuous improvement, including
unbiased, independent assessments
and benchmarking.
The defence supply chain has
become extremely complex. It is
common that 50% to 80% or more
of the total value of production lies
in a technically complex, multi-tier
supply chain. Defence contractors can no longer accept that long
lead times and marginal supplier
performance are the industry
norm. The industry must challenge
itself to get much closer to just in
time delivery. The industry might
consider adopting leading-edge risk
management practices to regain
visibility into the supply chain that
has been lost through outsourcing.

Information technology represents one of the biggest areas for

discretionary spending at most
companies, including defence firms.
Many A&D companies have invested
millions in systems implementations but havent yet realised the
full capabilities and productivity
enhancements that these systems
enable. Many IT organisations are
still spending most of their time
in legacy system maintenance and
enhancements. Companies need
to unlock the full capabilities of
their IT platforms, become leaner,
and migrate the IT organisation
away from costly maintenance
toward strategic initiatives and
competitive advantage.

Finally, improved knowledge

management will become more
critical. The industry was already
facing a talent drain because of
demographics. Now that talent
drain has been accelerated by
early retirements and workforce
reductions. Companies need
to identify the key people and
knowledge in their organisations
and capture that information using
searchable technology tools. But
they also need to create a knowledge
management culture that promotes
and rewards the effective capture and
use of knowledge.

Companies that embrace the

affordability challenge and
execute on these critical areas
will create greater value for the
war fighters, taxpayers, and
shareholders.

18

PwC

Defence

The regulatory environment

The current regulatory environment is certainly a key factor on the
defence industry.
Several reforms may help improve the environment for A&D companies.

Acquisition reform
Attempts to improve the current defence acquisition process have not yet
met the desired outcomes. One reason is that reforms have sought to place
ever increasing regulations on the contractors. Acquisition reform might
benefit from addressing how Congress funds long-term programmes on
a short-term basis and the manner in which the customer initially defines
requirements and the impact of subsequent modifications. Our recommendations include:
Addressing the definition and stability of requirements
Establishing realistic budgets and funding based on the inherent risks of
developing advanced technologies
Promoting flexibility and innovation in the bid and proposal process
Using contract structures appropriate to risk
Promoting international cooperation and cost sharing

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

19

Defence

The Defense Contract Audit Agency

The purpose of the Defense Contract Audit Agency (DCAA) is to protect the
government and taxpayers from fraud and abuse. The following reforms
could improve the effectiveness and efficiency of DCAA audits:
Audit approach Benchmark the audit approach against commercial
practices such as those regulations established under the American
Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) and Public Company
Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB).
Materiality Establish materiality standards. Materiality is not defined
for government contracting exceptions. It is widely accepted in commercial practice that it is impractical and cost prohibitive to build a control
system to catch minor errors.
Third-party reliance The DCAAs resources are limited. While DCAA
standards allow for reliance on third parties, it is seldom done. The
DCAA could consider establishing standards for third-party reliance that
promote such use where the third party is objective and competent to
improve the speed and efficiency of the regulatory process.

Export control reform

Many people believe that current export control regulations are outdated
and present a competitive disadvantage to the U.S. defence industrial
base. Many technologies that are broadly used in commercial application
are still subject to export control restrictions. A good example is satellites.
U.S. companies still face export control restrictions on products that are
sold commercially. President Obama is a supporter of export reform.3
Lawmakers should expedite export control reform to promote U.S. exports
and preserve key skills in the industrial base.

3www.whitehouse.gov, Fact Sheet on the Presidents Export Control Reform Initiative, 2010.

20

PwC

Mergers and acquisitions

Spinoffs and divestitures mean new activity

Aerospace M&A pushes deal

totals to record levels 4
2011 was a record year for aerospace
and defence transactions. The 341
deals and $43.7 billion of deal value
announced during 2011 beat the
previous highs: 332 deals in 2010
and $42.0 billion of value in 2007.
The $16 billion United Technologies
acquisition of Goodrich Corporation was the primary value driver.
Volume drivers were more broadbased, with higher numbers for
small deals (less than $50 million)
and mega deals (above $1 billion)
alike. Although mega deals were
not as common in 2011 as they
were in 2007, these transactions
have continued their recovery from
the recent low of only two such
announcements in 2009 up to six
in 2011. This led to an increase
in average deal sizes, even when
removing the impact of the Goodrich
deal. The Goodrich transaction
boosted U.S. total deal value above
historic norms despite a drop in the
number of U.S. deals. There was also
a big increase in deals for aerospace
targets in 2011, measured on both a
volume and value basis. This, when
considered alongside the higher
sales multiples awarded to aerospace
compared with defence targets,
reflects the more favourable
outlook for this part of the sector.

4PwC, Mission control, fourth quarter 2011

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

21

Mergers and acquisitions

Defence divestitures and

private equity exits boost
large deal volume
Divestiture of slower-growth defence
businesses and private equity exits
dominate the list of largest deals.
Two headline divestitures, the
Northrop Grumman shipbuilding
spin-off and the break-up of ITT,
ranked among the top five deals this
year. In addition, four of the top 10
deals were sales by private equity
companies to strategic investors. On
the buy side, only one private equity
purchase made the list: the Providence Equity Partners acquisition of
SRA International. The 2011 largest
deal targets were much more varied
than in 2007, when the focus was
mainly on aerospace targets. Also,
more big deals predominated in the
earlier record year; eight of the 10
largest deals in 2007 were for values
at or above $1.8 billion, compared
with just four such deals in 2011.
Private equity exits played a role in
each year. Activist investors had a
part to play in some of the large 2011
divestitures but financial investor
involvement was most evident in the
smaller deals.

Europe and the United States

drive global activity as Asia
takes a step back
European acquirers played a
much more significant role in the
2011 aerospace and defence deal
market compared with 2010. The
pace of market consolidation
hastened within Europe and
outbound deals also increased. The
focus was firmly trans-Atlantic; all
European outbound deals above the
$50 million threshold in 2011 were

22

for North American targets, boosting

the number of cross-border deals for
U.S. targets. There was also important activity for non-U.S. companies
that have significant U.S. revenues,
as a means of increasing exposure
to the largest defence market in the
world. One rationale for these types
of deals is that, in some cases, they
may be easier to close. Transactions
involving Asian acquirers declined
year on year.

Deal volumes likely to grow

in 2012
With OEM backlogs contributing
to higher overall sector growth
prospects, aerospace M&A is likely
to continue to lead the A&D deal
market in 2012. The outlook for
defence is somewhat less certain.
Defence M&A will likely remain
oriented toward large spin-offs of
lower-growth units and smaller
acquisitions in growth areas, such as
cyber security. However, the further
defence budgets fall, the more likely
there could be calls for larger-scale
consolidation, which could outweigh
antitrust concerns, in order to maintain a strong defence industrial base.
Strategic investors have significant
cash positions and appear wellpositioned to drive a high volume
of deals in 2012, both large and
small. Deal volume, if not deal value,
could be set to break another new
record in 2012. In particular, EADS
is looking to grow its U.S. presence
through acquisitions. The company
gets less than 3% of its revenue from
U.S. subsidiaries and has stated its
intention to grow its U.S. revenue
from $1.8 billion today to about
$10 billion.

However, we also believe further

consolidation is likely. The U.S.
Defense Department has indicated
that it will oppose any deals that
create a sole source supplier. Therefore, it is unlikely we will see any
consolidation among the top 10
players, but there remains ample
opportunity for other companies in
the A&D arena. We see C4ISR as a
pocket of growth in an otherwise
flat market. Also, given the reduced
tempo of operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan, it may be time for
further consolidation of land
systems providers.
Looking ahead, we point to four
themes that are likely to affect M&A
activity in the coming years:
Increasing consolidation as
companies respond to cost
pressures
Further re-evaluation of supply
chains by big manufacturers, in
both civil and military segments,
as they seek to gain better control
of their large programme
pipelines
Continuing growth in the
security, surveillance, and
homeland security sector
Greater investment in and
competition from fast-growing
markets, most notably China

We believe these trends will provide

the context for continued growth in
deal volume, although deal value is
unlikely to keep pace with the record
year of 2011.

PwC

In summary

The performance of the top 100 A&D companies is a barometer for

the health of the industry and a reflection of strong and disciplined
management over the past decade. It also reflects the strong demand
for the industrys products and services.

Aviation has become a critical

part of our global infrastructure.
Businesses cannot operate
effectively without global
deployment of human capital.
Aviation is increasingly inelastic, as
we witnessed its resiliency during
the recession. And while air freight
is still dwarfed by sea and land
freight, an increasing portion of the
global supply chain now relies on
air cargo.
The outlook for defence is clouded
by the possibility of sequestration
in the United States and cuts to the
defence budget. However, industry
executives believe defence spending
will be driven by threats to security,
which have not diminished.
Furthermore, the security threat is
dynamic and could rapidly change
defence priorities. The defence
industry agrees that it must respond
to the affordability challenge and
improve productivity.
The near-term and long-term
forecast for commercial aerospace
is full of optimism and growth.
Aviation will continue to grow faster
than the overall economy because
of its critical role in the global
economic infrastructure, bolstered
by economic growth in Asia, the
Middle East, Eastern Europe, and
Latin America. Defence faces some
challenges, but is well positioned to
respond to these challenges so long
as sequestration doesnt become
a reality. 2012 should be another
strong year for the industry and
possibly another record year.

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

23

In summary

Revenue

US$ millions

#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

24

Company
Boeing
EADS
Lockheed Martin
General Dynamics
BAE Systems
United Technologies
Northrop Grumman
Raytheon
Finmeccanica
GE Aviation
Thales
Rolls Royce
Safran
L-3 Communications
Honeywell Aerospace
SAIC
Bombardier Aerospace
Textron
Goodrich
Huntington Ingals
Precision Castparts Corp.
CSC North American Public Sector
Mitsubishi Aerospace
Harris Corp
Exelis
Embraer
Spirit AeroSystems
Alliant Techsystems
Rockwell Collins
Singapore Technologies
Dassault Aviation
Babcock International Group
Oshkosh Defense
MTU Aero Engines
Zodiac
Delta Tucker Holdings / DynCorp International
Saab
CACI
IHI Aero Engines and Space Operations
Israeli Aerospace Industries
Rheinmetall Defence
Cobham
Triumph Group
Serco Defense and Americas
ManTech International
Avio
Elbit Systems
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)
QinetiQ
BE Aerospace

2011
68,735
68,328
46,499
32,677
30,745
26,935
26,412
24,857
24,086
18,859
18,120
18,101
16,214
15,169
11,475
11,117
8,614
8,387
8,075
6,575
6,220
6,002
5,923
5,920
5,839
5,803
4,864
4,842
4,806
4,755
4,597
4,424
4,365
4,078
3,804
3,721
3,615
3,578
3,438
3,436
2,978
2,976
2,905
2,901
2,870
2,819
2,817
2,791
2,731
2,500

2010
Change
64,306
7%
60,599
13%
45,671
2%
32,466
1%
34,428
-11%
25,227
7%
28,143
-6%
25,183
-1%
24,762
-3%
17,619
7%
17,364
4%
16,794
8%
14,607
11%
15,680
-3%
10,683
7%
10,846
2%
9,357
-8%
7,783
8%
6,967
16%
6,723
-2%
5,459
14%
6,095
-2%
5,696
4%
5,206
14%
5,891
-1%
5,364
8%
4,172
17%
4,808
1%
4,631
4%
4,388
8%
5,546
-17%
2,930
51%
7,162
-39%
3,585
14%
2,830
34%
3,696
1%
3,394
7%
3,149
14%
3,304
4%
3,148
9%
2,658
12%
2,941
1%
1,295
124%
2,882
1%
2,604
10%
2,322
21%
2,670
6%
2,494
12%
9%
2,512
1,984
26%

Operating Profit
US$ millions

2011
5,844
2,243
3,980
3,826
2,536
3,921
3,276
2,857
(3,318)
3,512
1,010
1,936
1,161
1,598
2,023
958
448
722
1,336
110
1,503
528
(43)
588
535
318
356
526
855
483
524
254
543
456
512
48
452
251
73
133
310
586
314
224
227
534
116
319
233
428

2010
Change
4,971
18%
1,572
43%
4,049
-2%
3,945
-3%
2,474
2%
3,621
8%
2,827
16%
2,607
10%
1,631
-303%
3,304
6%
(272)
471%
1,561
24%
1,242
-7%
1,750
-9%
1835
10%
867
10%
473
-5%
628
15%
998
34%
248
-56%
1,423
6%
524
1%
(73)
41%
562
5%
689
-22%
392
-19%
357
0%
512
3%
796
7%
430
12%
783
-33%
229
11%
1,321
-59%
412
11%
307
67%
97
-51%
135
234%
195
29%
102
-29%
52
156%
310
0%
538
9%
155
103%
218
3%
215
6%
449
19%
207
-44%
254
25%
186
25%
316
35%

PwC

In summary

Revenue

Operating Profit

US$ millions

#
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

Company
Kawasaki Aerospace
GKN Aerospace
Meggitt
MOOG
BBA Aviation
ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems
Curtiss-Wright
RUAG
Allegheny Technologies High Performance
Metals
Teledyne Technologies
Parker Hannifin Aerospace
AAR
Esterline Technologies
Eaton Aerospace
CAE
Trimble
FLIR Systems
Kongsberg Gruppen Defence and Protech
Hexcel
Xi'an Aircraft International Corp
Orbital Sciences
Cubic Corporation
TransDigm Group
Chemring Group
Ultra Electronics
Barnes Group
Bharat Electronics
Loral Space & Communications
Titanium Metals (TIMET)
Fuji Aerospace
Volvo Aero
GenCorp
Aselsan
SIA Engineering
Woodward Governor Aerospace
Smiths Detection
ViaSat
Latecoere
Alion Science and Technology
Ball Aerospace
OHB Technology
Heico Corporation
MacDonald Dettwiler & Associates
Aeroflex
Indra Security & Defense
Magellan Aerospace Corp
Crane Aerospace & Electronics
Senior Aerospace
Jamco Corp
Ducommun
Total

2011
2,472
2,377
2,335
2,331
2,137
2,076
2,054
2,003

US$ millions

2010
Change
2,150
15%
2,243
6%
1,796
30%
2,114
10%
1,834
17%
1,600
30%
1,893
9%
1,727
16%

2011
38
266
578
246
181
296
205
124

2010
Change
19
94%
250
7%
469
23%
216
14%
156
16%
192
54%
180
14%
94
32%

1,956

1,410

39%

365

258

41%

1,942
1,922
1,776
1,718
1,648
1,647
1,644
1,544
1,443
1,392
1,372
1,346
1,285
1,206
1,196
1,174
1,169
1,164
1,107
1,045
1,039
1,001
918
899
879
843
819
802
801
787
785
773
765
761
729
709
699
678
614
599
581

1,644
1,744
1,316
1,527
1,536
1,480
1,294
1,388
1,510
1,174
1,602
1,295
1,194
828
923
1,097
1,029
1,170
1,159
857
1,061
1,069
858
788
740
769
887
688
615
834
714
564
617
688
655
787
710
577
516
489
408

18%
10%
35%
13%
7%
11%
27%
11%
-4%
19%
-14%
4%
8%
46%
30%
7%
14%
0%
-4%
22%
-2%
-6%
7%
14%
19%
10%
-8%
17%
30%
-6%
10%
37%
24%
11%
11%
-10%
-2%
18%
19%
23%
42%

227
247
139
198
244
262
156
313
182
192
17
80
112
487
228
196
128
406
93
175
27
52
39
140
108
130
103
39
62
35
80
38
138
117
53
71
60
146
88
(2)
(34)

179
208
94
188
220
223
128
360
207
130
56
73
106
363
167
170
86
221
81
121
55
40
38
142
81
112
138
43
60
39
70
30
109
100
68
88
61
109
57
22
26

27%
19%
48%
5%
11%
18%
22%
-13%
-12%
48%
-70%
10%
6%
34%
36%
15%
49%
84%
15%
45%
-51%
29%
3%
-1%
33%
16%
-25%
-9%
4%
-10%
14%
25%
27%
17%
-22%
-20%
-2%
34%
55%
-111%
-231%

677,261 647,593

5%

60,033

59,129

2%

Source: Company reports; PwC

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

25

For more information contact:

Neil Hampson

Scott Thompson

Global Aerospace &

Defence Leader
+44 20 7804 9405
[email protected]

U.S. Aerospace &

Defence Leader
+1 703 918 1976
[email protected]

26

PwC

PwCs global aerospace and defence practice

PwCs A&D practice provides industry-focused assurance, tax, and
advisory services. Through our global network, we can draw upon the
in-depth industry experience of professionals in every country where your
company operates. Our people can help you deal with the challenges of
today, and they understand the implications for tomorrow.

PwC Global
Global Aerospace and Defence Leader
Neil Hampson +44 20 7804 9405
[email protected]

Italy Aerospace and Defence Leader

Corrado Testori +39 06 5702 52442
[email protected]

Global Aerospace and Defence Marketing Director

Katrine Ellingsen 1 514 205 5066
[email protected]

Middle East Aerospace and Defence Leader

Bill Lay +971.4.304.3651
[email protected]

Brazil Aerospace and Defence Leader

Augusto Assuncao +55 19 3794 5408
[email protected]

Netherlands Aerospace and Defence Leader

Alexander Staal +31 (0) 887927242
[email protected]

Canada Aerospace and Defence Leader

Mario Longpre +1 514 205 5065
[email protected]

U.S. Aerospace and Defence Leader

Scott Thompson +1 703 918 1976
[email protected]

China Aerospace and Defence Leader

Huw Andrews +86.21.2323.8800
[email protected]

U.S. Aerospace and Defence Advisory Leader

Charles Marx +1 602 364 8161
[email protected]

France Aerospace and Defence Leader

Guillaume Rochard +33 1 56 57 8208
[email protected]

U.S. Aerospace and Defence Tax Leader

James Grow +1 703 918 3458
[email protected]

Germany Aerospace and Defence Leader

Jrgen Seibertz +49.211.981.2845
[email protected]

U.S. Aerospace and Defence Marketing Manager

Gina Reynolds +1 973 236 4648
[email protected]

India Aerospace and Defence Leader

Dhiraj Mathur +91 11 4115 0309
[email protected]

A&D 2011 year in review and 2012 forecast

27

Visit our aerospace and defence industry website at

www.pwc.com/aerospaceanddefence
2012 PwC. All rights reserved. Not for further distribution without the permission of PwC. PwC refers to the network of member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International
Limited (PwCIL), or, as the context requires, individual member firms of the PwC network. Each member fi rm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent of PwCIL or any other
member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of their
professional judgment or bind them in any way. No member firm is responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any other member firm nor can it control the exercise of another
member firms professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL in any way.
PwC has taken all reasonable steps to ensure that information contained herein has been obtained from reliable sources and that this publication is accurate and authoritative in all
respects. However, it is not intended to give legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice. If such advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent
professional should be sought. 2626-01-4.4.2012