A R T I C L E

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The Role of System Theory in Scenario

Planning
Thomas Chermack
University of Minnesota
USA

Abstract
This paper describes system theory as one of several potential foundational theories in scenario planning.
Further, this paper intends to clarify hints of the importance of system theory in scenario planning literature
through a more detailed and comprehensive examination of how these two concepts may be linked. A discussion
of how core system theory concepts are prevalent in scenario planning is provided after detailed descriptions of
each. Based on the review presented, it seems that system theory may provide a foundational theory that could
serve as a philosophical frame for scenario planning practice.
Keywords: scenario planning, system theory, uncertainty

It is no surprise that as our world increases in comDefinition and Purpose of Scenario

plexity and uncertainty, business leaders look for ways
Planning
of anticipating change to help their organizations survive. In efforts to do so, business leaders are relying
In an analysis of scenario planning definitions and
more heavily on strategic tools. One such tool has been
outcome variables, Chermack & Lynham (2002) defined
scenario planning. Scenario planning has gained
scenario planning as "a process of positing several
increased attention during the last 20 years as an effecinformed, plausible and imagined alternative future
tive method for identifying critical future uncertainties
environments in which decisions about the future may
and investigating blind spots in the organization
be played out, for the purpose of changing current
(Kahane 1999). By focusing on several plausible alternathinking, improving decision making, enhancing human
tive futures and giving up the notion of predicting the
and organization learning and improving performance"
future, scenario planning has avoided many of the pit(p. 343). Scenarios and scenario planning do not aim to
falls and criticisms of strategic planning (May 1996,
forecast or predict a single future, rather the intended
Mintzberg 1994). As a result of popular use, there are
outcomes are those described in the definition:
multiple methods for conducting scenario planning, and
changed thinking, improved decision making, enhanced
due to proprietary methods, the ability to examine the
human learning, and improved organizational performtheoretical foundations has been severely limited.
Journal of Futures Studies, May 2004, 8(4): 15 - 30

Journal of Futures Studies

ance. While each individual scenario does contain a forecast of a potential future, the use of
multiple scenarios allows the consideration of
many plausible futures that are all relevant to
the project at hand, each containing forecasted
events based on rigorous analysis. The point is
to encourage divergent thinking about what
could plausibly happen in the future.

Problem Statement and Structure of

the Paper
Scenario planning has developed mainly in
practice (Wack 1985, Ringland 1995, Van der
Heijden 1997), and has not yet established
strong theoretical roots (Gergantzas & Acar
1995). The alternative to having foundational
theories is a field or process in which practitioners may include any theories they choose. Such
a situation becomes problematic when focusing
on a deep understanding, or long-term, replicable results (Swanson 1999). Further, Warfield
(1995) suggested that the articulation of theoretical foundations is central to the progress
and development of a discipline. The fact that
scenario planning practices have not been subjected to rigorous examination leads to questions about the effectiveness of the process
itself. Thus the core problem is that:
Many established authors in the scenario planning
literature imply that theory is important in the
application of scenario planning (Wack 1985,
Schwartz 1991, van der Heijden 1997, Ringland
1998; 2002) however, these claims are rarely clarified.

16

It may seem that this is a call for strictly

academic examination of scenario planning
practices. While the use of academic tools can
aid in the understanding of a phenomenon,
those tools are most effective when aimed at
real world problems such that the results will be
useful to practitioners. A starting point, however, is realized in the identification of theory
domains that are important in the application of
scenario planning. Chermack, Lynham & Ruona
(2001), Ringland, (1998; 2002), Schwartz, (1991),
van der Heijden, (1997) and Wack, (1985), have
all suggested that some potential theory bases

for informing scenario planning include learning

theory, cognitive development theory, decision
theory, system theory and performance
improvement theory. This paper aims to tackle
one such theory domain in a more detailed
examination than current literature offers.
Thus, the core purpose of this paper is to:
Explore system theory as a foundational
theory of scenario planning and attempt to
outline the ways in which system theory
informs scenario planning.
While there is extensive literature regarding other potential foundational theories of scenario planning such as learning, mental models,
decision-making and performance, the intent of
this paper is to address only one -- system theory -- as the others may be addressed in forthcoming investigations.

Methodology and Research Question

Harkins & Kubic (2000; 2001) proposed
three modes of systems, namely (1) mechanistic
(2) organic and (3) teleogenic. Their framework
was selected on the basis that it is able to integrate and categorize the vast system theory literature in a relatively simple and easily comprehendible manner (Harkins & Kubic 2000; 2001).
Given the preliminary nature of this exploration,
an extensive review, analysis and synthesis of
both scenario planning and system theory literature was used to answer the following question:

How does system theory inform the
process of scenario planning?
It is important to clarify at this point that
this paper explores system theory applied to
the systems in which scenario planning is used
and, where appropriate, the scenarios themselves. That is, some system theory concepts
apply to the general organization, and some
concepts apply to the individual scenario stories.
Literature was selected based on 2 searches conducted through journal search engines
including ABI Inform, ERIC, PsychInfo, as well as
electronic journals Interscience/Wiley,
Catchword, ScienceDirect, and JSTOR. The first
search was conducted using search criteria of

System Theory in Scenario Planning

"scenario planning" contained in the "keywords"

field. The second search was conducted using
search criteria of "system theory" contained in
the "keywords" field.
Key sources were also selected by examining the reference sections of search results for
keywords "scenario planning" for the term "system theory" and vice versa. The intent was to
find the original sources used in scenario planning literature to cite the importance of system
theory to the process. Further, the intent was
to make the argument that system theory is an
important theory base in scenario planning.
The methodology was complimented by
the initial reviews of this article. Reviewers with
clear knowledge and expertise concerning system theory provided numerous further
resources that speak directly to the interplay
between system theory and scenario planning
which were not found as a result of the keyword search. Thus, in order to provide as comprehensive a review of the relevant literature as
possible to answer the research question, these
additional sources were included to enhance
the original methodology.
A key limitation of the methodology can
be noted in its mechanistic approach. This
approach was meant to capture the literature
currently contained in electronic databases that
could be used to answer the research question.
While this paper operates at an abstract level, it
must be noted that alternative approaches to
answering this research question can and
should be taken in the future. Some of those
alternative approaches include: Inayatullah's
(2000a; 2000b) Causal Layered Analysis method,
case studies, or interviews with practitioners
(Russo 2003, Inayatullah & Wildman 1998).

Examining Complex Systems

Kubic & Harkins (2000; 2001) submit three
modes or forms of system: (1) mechanistic (2)
organic and (3) teleogenic. Mechanistic systems
are generally very simple systems. These simple
systems are usually non-human systems and are
rigidly controlled. Organic systems operate at
higher levels of complexity and are found in
artificial intelligence, computer programs, and

biological system, among others. Organic systems can be human systems, however, the core
point of differentiation between organic systems and human systems is the notion of purpose. Organic systems may serve a purpose,
but teleogenic systems create purpose.
Teleogenic systems are systems that develop,
and are responsive to, intent, or purpose
(Powers 1989). Because of the ability of
teleogenic systems to cope with purposefulness, this third mode or classification of systems
is most appropriately applied to human systems
and is where this paper will focus most of the
majority of its examination. While the
teleogenic mode of systems is most pertinent
to the realm of human systems, the mechanistic
and organic modes require some explanation as
work in these areas has given rise to the notion
of teleogenic systems (Kubic & Harkins 2001,
Banathy 1993, Martuana 1975).

Mechanistic Systems
Mechanistic systems are rigidly controlled
systems. These systems are human-machine
interface systems that are limited in their interaction with their environments, have minimal
components, minimal freedom, singleness of
purpose, and exhibit mechanistic behavior
(Banathy 1993). Examples of mechanistic systems include: aircraft landing gears, a drill press,
simple lever systems, or single outcome
mechanical systems. A key factor for mechanistic systems is that they are non-human system.

Organic Systems
Organic systems are systems with properties of self-regulation. Organic systems are
found in the development of artificial intelligence, cybernetics, computer simulation system
and simple living systems. Simple living systems can be classified as organic systems, but
the key characteristic is the complexity of the
system in terms of inputs, processes, and outputs. These systems have defined goals (often
simply to reproduce system parts, structures,
and the system itself) but exhibit some degree

17

Journal of Futures Studies

of flexibility in operation. Human systems can

be classified as organic systems based on the
notion that they serve some purpose, however,
if they generate purpose, such human systems
may more appropriately be classified as
teleogenic systems.
Central to the mode of organic systems
are the notions of autopoiesis, feedback and
dissipative structure (Capra 1996). Autopoieis
describes the self-generative behavior of complex systems and is responsible for the pattern
and organization of the system (Capra 1996).
Feedback influences the state of the system by
supporting growth, shutting the system down,
maintaining equilibrium, or giving rise to innovation in a state that has become known as
"bounded instability" (Stacey 1996: 74).
Dissipative structure refers to the notion that a
system can be structurally open but organizationally closed, or that it can have form, but
allow materials and/or resources to flow
through it. These three concepts are described
in particular as they apply in scenario planning.

18

Autopoiesis
Maturana & Varela (1973) base their work
on 4 fundamental assumptions about the
nature of organic systems, namely, (1) that
organic system are autonomous (2) the behavior of the whole is generated by the components and their interactions with neighboring
elements (3) observers can perceive both the
system and its environment and how they interact and (4) the observation of function can only
be made by an observer who can interact with
both the components and the whole. Maturana
& Varela consider two key questions in the
analysis of what differentiates organic system
from mechanistic system:
What is it that a system produces?
What is it that produces the system?
Maturana & Varela use a cell as an example
of an organic system. Consider for a moment
what it is that a cell produces. Cells produce
their own components, which therefore produce the cell itself in a cyclical and ongoing
process. "A cell produces, and is produced by,
nothing other than itself" (Mingers 1995: 11).
This is the core of autopoiesis. The word

means, literally, self-producing, which is exactly

what a cell does. (Figure 1 displays the circular
processes of production).
Figure 1 Circular processes of production
(Mingers 1995)

The organization of a system demonstrates the properties of the system as a whole

and occurs on a conceptual and abstract level.
Organization is found in concrete examples in
reality, while structure often refers to the generality lying behind such examples (Mingers
1995). The distinction between organization
and structure is, therefore, in the distinction
between the whole and its parts. In these
terms, organization refers to the events (often
empirically detectable) and structure refers to
the underlying assumptions.
In other words, autopoetic networks must
continually regenerate themselves in order to
maintain organization. Autopoiesis is not confined to the physical world (Mingers 1995,
Martuana & Varela 1973) thus leaving open the
possibility for communication, social systems,
or a set of concepts to also be defined as
autopoietic systems. A concern around the
concept of autopoiesis is in its application to
other systems. Human-influenced systems
become extremely complex, which makes the
origins of autopoiesis within them, something
mysterious. Human-influenced systems
become more abstract because of their complexity. For example, one cannot observe a
business organization in the same way that one
can observe a cell under a microscope. Thus, a
common problem in the application of system
concepts is a failure to make the switch in perspective. Looking for characteristics of

System Theory in Scenario Planning

autopoiesis in human system from the mechanistic perspective will not yield very powerful
results. The key to autopoiesis in human-influenced system is in the relationships among
components.
Autopoiesis is evident in human-influenced
systems and organizations and can be considered by first asking the same questions posed
by Martuana & Varela, which are both critical
questions in scenario planning (Schwartz 1991,
van der Heijden 1997).
The use of heuristics often provides an
answer to the first question. For example, the
business idea (van der Heijden 1997) is
designed to articulate the key products and
processes without which the organization
would not exist. The second question is more
difficult to answer. The organization system is
sustained by the continuous input and output
of resources. In today's world, the primary
resource of concern is a financial one. If an
organization is not financially viable, it will not
be in business for long. Thus, business organization systems can be described as autopoietic
because they naturally strive to regenerate
themselves through the perpetual flow of

inputs, processes and outputs and because they

must regenerate their resources to sustain
themselves.
Scenarios as Autopoietic Systems. The
actual stories generated in the scenario planning process can also be viewed as autopoietic
systems. van der Heijden (1997) referred to the
notion of the "strategic conversation" (p. 46)
which is an example of autopoiesis in the scenario itself. A strategic conversation occurs
when individuals participate together, share
ideas about patterns, reflect together, build a
common course of action, and act together.
The strategic conversation is the collective consideration, deliberation, planning, and action of
members of an organization. In this context
"the learning loop works as a positive feedback
loop" (van der Heijden 1997: 47). The assumptions of the strategic conversation are that
organization structure exists in action and interaction, and that action and interaction take
place through conversation or dialogue. van
der Heijden provided a heuristic for understanding the strategic conversation (See Figure
2).

Figure 2 The art of strategic conversation (van der Heijden 1997)

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Journal of Futures Studies

20

Feedback Networks and System States

Maruyama's (1963) work on feedback has
had a delayed, although profound impact on
the development of the systems view.
Maruyama's work has been simplified as the
application of system theory to other disciplines
has increased. Using complex cybernetic terminology, Maruyama investigated "deviation-counteracting" (balancing) and "deviation-amplifying"
(reinforcing) feedback. In general, there are
four types of feedback based on the work of
Maruyama, and thus four general system states,
namely (1) negative feedback which leads to
system failure (2) positive feedback which leads
to system growth (3) a balance of positive and
negative feedback which pushes the system to
equilibrium and (4) non-linear feedback which
occurs randomly but within limits.
Negative feedback often begins when a
system finds itself in an environment to which it
cannot adapt and simply shuts down. In organizations, and example of negative feedback
would be an organization that is experiencing a
negative cash flow. Given enough time, the system will fail because it is not generating the
resources it needs for survival. Positive feedback refers to feedback that supports system
growth. An example would be positive financial
growth. A balance of feedback is the most common system state and most organization leaders strive for equilibrium and the predictability
that accompanies it. Non-linear feedback
occurs when a system has enough self-direction
that it does not have to be controlled, but there
are limits to the changes that can occur within
the system.
Because feedback determines the state of
the system, it is an important aspect when considering business organizations as systems.
Stacey's (1992) early argument was that the
equilibrium model, which is predictable and stable over time, is no longer the model that organizational leaders should be striving for.
Instead, Stacey stressed that organization systems will fluctuate among all of these states;
however, the most productive and innovative
state is a state he called bounded instability,
caused by non-linear feedback. This is the state
in which innovation leads to a competitive

advantage. The equilibrium model simply does

not allow leaders of the organization to break
out of a state in which they react to changes in
the environment. Innovative organizations
design and determine their own futures and it is
argued here that one way of doing so is by
using scenarios.
Stacey's thinking has evolved to the point
of separating humans from systems. According
to Stacey's more recent work (2003; 2001),
humans cannot be considered system components because this implies that they are performing some required function as a process in
a larger system. The problem inherent here is
that humans are required to interact with multiple systems and have influence on systems, but
cannot be considered system components
themselves.
Stacey's approach to complexity science suggests
that such a complex network of agents cannot lend
itself to a single purpose, control, or design of any
given single system. The situation is emergent.
That is, human agents acting in complex networks
consisting of different purposes, goals and notions
of the future create their own futures through
emergent interaction. Stacey (2003) explained: "I
experience a process of learning occurring
through conversations taking place in the context
of personal relationships. The experience is one of
dialogue that slips in and out of debate, in which
people are trying to surface what they do not yet
know, as well as articulating what they know but
cannot yet express. It is though conversing, persuading and exerting influence in a highly personal network of relationships that the shape of potential change emerges." (p. 17)

Feedback in Scenarios. Feedback is perhaps the most important reason for constructing scenarios. The feedback that is produced
regarding the capabilities of the organization
when it is "windtunneled" (van der Heijden
1997: 57) will show precisely the strengths and
weaknesses of the organization. Planning professionals can also alter the state of the organization system in an imaginary capacity to determine if a different system state will allow the
organization to respond differently or more
successfully in similar future situations.
Additional research in this area could prove useful, particularly research concerning the most

System Theory in Scenario Planning

successful applications or activities of each system state.

Dissipative Structures
Prigogine (1977) described dissipative
structures and placed emphasis on the openness of the structure and its ability to allow
energy and matter to flow through it. Capra
(1996) used the vortex in a bathtub as the water
funnels down the drain as a simple example of a
dissipative structure. The vortex is self-organizing (although the irregularities in the movement
of the water and in the drainpipe are environmental factors that influence the developing
structure) and it allows the water to flow
through it continually. "Thus a living system is
both open and closed-it is structurally open, but
organizationally closed. Matter continuously
flows through it, but the system maintains a stable form and it does so autonomously." (Capra
1996: 169)
Dissipative structures emerge when a system moves away from equilibrium to a point of
bifurcation. (Prigogene 1997) The general
expectation is that the system becomes unstable at this point. Beyond this point, however,
systems take on new phenomena, for example,
alternate chemical reactions in biological systems, or alternate structures in others. The
importance of this point is that systems spontaneously organize at points that are far from
equilibrium, and while this spontaneous organization can be clearly observed in natural systems, (Prigogine 1997) they are much more difficult to identify and observe in social and
human systems.
The significance of equilibrium in any system is that it is an indicator of non-changing
activity. However, this is increasingly an undesirable characteristic as the rate of change
organizations are facing is pausing for equilibrium for short enough periods of time that it is
irrelevant. Organizations themselves are
becoming more and more innovative and
increasing their internal change processes due
to the complexity and uncertainty in the environments they are facing. Thus, Stacey's (1992)
early work becomes informative.
Stacey (1992) pointed out that most organ-

izations are perceived as systems striving for

equilibrium. However, he noted that organizations with a competitive advantage are innovative, and by definition, "innovative strategic
directions take an organization into uncharted
waters, away from the norm or equilibrium."
(Stacey 1992: 4) Stacey suggested that innovative organizations, by embracing uncertainty
and letting go of linear management and prediction thinking, are systems operating as dissipative structures (like the vortex in the bathtub),
far from equilibrium. "In this state, the system
generates behavior that is unstable, but because
it is unstable within limits that behavior is called
bounded instability." (Stacey 1992: 11)
Bounded instability is Stacey's description of the
behavior that occurs in a dissipative structure.
Accordingly, what may be required is a new set
of perceptions about the nature of and purposes ascribed to organizations as system and their
intended states of operation.
The utility in viewing an organization as a
dissipative structure far from equilibrium helps
inform scenario planning professionals and
practitioners about the nature of a system that
is inherently unstable, yet within limits. This
shift in thinking is precisely what Stacey (1992)
called for. An organization that is pushed by its
leaders toward comfortable equilibrium will
never be innovative and thus, never develop a
competitive advantage. In an environment of
considerable change at increasingly rapid rates,
the equilibrium model is contrary to the nature
of the system view and leads to system failure.
(Stacey 1992) However, Stacey's (2002) later
work on complexity and its role in strategic
management suggested that attempts to study
human organizations with the tools of engineering and scientific approaches to management were likely candidates for failure. Thus,
Stacey's (2003) thesis has been that understanding complexity in human organizations requires
tools involving dialogue, debate and the ability
to let go completely of the idea that anyone or
anything can control such an organization.
Scenarios as Dissipative Structures.
Scenario stories themselves, can be viewed as
dissipative structures. The utility in taking this
view is demonstrated by considering the char-

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Journal of Futures Studies

acteristics of dissipative structures and comparing them to the characteristics of scenarios.

Linked to van der Heijden's (1997) notion of the
strategic conversation, scenarios will follow a
plot line and structure, but are conceptually
open in terms of imagined events in the story.
The authors of the scenario are not limited in
the events that they may create in the story;
however, the plot, or structure of the story is
held in place. The scenario stories also act as
dissipative structures when they are used as
"windtunnels" (van der Heijden 1997: 57) to test
the adaptability of the organization, allowing
the current organization to "flow" through them
in an imaginary capacity.
To clarify, scenarios are used to create
alternative pictures of the environment and
assess organizational resources and options in
each of them. Thus, scenarios allow experimentation with multiple futures that are inherently
complex and uncertain, yet they do not force
organization decision-makers to select a preferred future such as is the case with other
strategic approaches.

Teleogenic Systems

22

A teleogenic or purpose generating system

is a system that seeks a set of related goals for
which it was created. (Banathy 1993)
Mechanistic and organic systems can be purposeful, meaning that they serve some purpose
but they do not generate purpose. Teleogenic
systems incorporate and build upon the concepts of autopoiesis, requisite variety, and dissipative structure. Scenarios and scenario planning incorporate these concepts and are
attempts to develop purpose-seeking systems
by providing and constructing multiple plausible visions for the future. These visions are
used to challenge the status quo and current
thinking about the strategic agenda of the
organization and other potential options.
Teleogenic systems can incorporate all
three modes of systems: mechanistic, organic
and teleogenic. (Banathy 1993) For example,
the pilot of a sailboat is dealing with several
mechanistic systems in the operation of the sailboat, several organic systems in computer navi-

gation and weather systems, and is functioning

as the integrative teleogenic system that brings
the others together and provides purpose and
intent. Teleogenic systems are most effectively
and appropriately applied to human systems,
because, as Von Bertalanffy (1969) stated, "True
purposiveness is characteristic of human behavior, and it is connected with the evolution of the
symbolism of language and concepts." (p. 79)
An exciting idea in teleogenic systems is the
notion that there are too many options to plan
for any one set of circumstances and the implication is that instead of choosing, and understanding of teleogenic systems will allow
humans to create their own futures. (Banathy
1993) Humans create their own futures in ideal
circumstances, and they do so by making decisions and taking action. Scenarios, as part of
teleogenic system enable humans to make better decisions as a result of developing a better
understanding of the choices they may face and
the potential consequences of those choices.
Thus, scenarios and scenario planning
allow decision makers within human systems to
design custom systems that devise and constantly revise their own purposes and seek new
areas of advantage within their own environments. To this end, teleogenic systems develop
and generate requisite variety, future memory,
and ultimately, self-organization. These three
concepts will be explained and described as
they apply to organizations and also as they
apply in the scenario stories.

Requisite Variety
Key to the notion of teleogenic systems is
the concept of system anticipation or preparedness. In systems, this is accomplished through
the development of requisite variety. The law
of requisite variety states that "the larger the
variety of actions available to a control system,
the larger the variety of perturbations it is able
to compensate." (Ashby 1956: 206) Where requisite refers to "required" (Webster's New World
Dictionary p. 529), this type of variety is that
which is required in the environment.
Ashby (1956) used the simple example of a
press photographer to demonstrate the concept of requisite variety: "A press photographer

System Theory in Scenario Planning

would deal with twenty subjects that are (for

exposure and distance) distinct, then his camera
must obviously be capable of at least twenty
distinct settings if all the negatives are to be
brought to a uniform density and sharpness." (p.
212-213) This example is simple but the law of
requisite variety can also be applied to large,
more complex systems.
Requisite Variety in Scenarios. One function of scenario planning is to provide organizations with the required or requisite variety to
cope with the external forces of the business
environment. These forces can be multiple and
from differing domains, for example, societal,
technological, economic, environmental, and
political are all environmental domains that contain interrelated forces influencing organizations. (Mintzberg 1994) Scenarios can then be
used to "windtunnel" (van der Heijden 1997: 57)
the organization itself, and consider possible
actions in a considerable number of plausible
yet challenging situations. An organization with
requisite variety is an organization that has considered many plausible futures and how it
might adapt and change to cope with each different environment. (May 1996) An organization with requisite variety is an organization
that is relatively prepared for a number of plausible options.
Scenarios allow organization decision
makers to think through decisions they might
make in the future and consider their possible
implications. Because of the imaginary capacity
of the stories themselves, an aim of the stories
is to provoke managers and executives to think
what is considered unthinkable, and to explore
the events thought not possible. (Wack 1985)
In short, scenario stories help organizations
develop preparedness for a variety of plausible
future environments, thus expanding the adaptability of the organization.

Anticipatory Memory
An intriguing phenomenon has occurred
with the use of scenario planning called "anticipatory memory". As Schwartz (1991) noted in
the final step of his methodology, the selection
of leading indicators and signposts, is critical to
the realization that a given scenario may be

unfolding. Sometimes the direction is obvious,

but it can also be very subtle. Indicators and
signposts are selected to monitor, in an ongoing sense, the progress of the organization
along the lines of a given scenario. (Schwartz
1991) The advantage created by having previously considered critical circumstances when
they actually present themselves is termed
anticipatory memory. (Schwartz 1991)
The phenomenon of anticipatory memory
is closely linked to the concept of requisite variety. Anticipatory memory occurs when a system, or organization, encounters a situation
that it has considered previously in a scenario.
In a study conducted by De Geus (1998), Shell
Oil considered the $15 barrel of oil when prices
were $28 per barrel and a $10 barrel was
viewed as the collapse of the industry. Shell
acted based on multiple scenarios that were circulated throughout the organization and when
the price suddenly fell to $5 per barrel, Shell's
reaction time was much shorter than that of any
of the competition. This is anticipatory memory -- the advantage created by having previously
considered critical circumstances when they
actually present themselves. (Schwartz 1991)
Anticipatory Memory in Scenarios. In
essence, individuals create this kind of memory
constantly. It unfolds along the lines of logic,
for example, if X happens, then I will do Y.
When this concept is applied to an entire organization through the use of scenarios, the implications become very powerful. Anticipatory
memory can decrease the response time of an
organization to external changes in the environment because the situations have already been
considered. (De Geus 1998, Schwartz 1991, van
der Heijden 1997) Scenario stories help organization decision makers consider a wide variety
of plausible future changes.

Self-Organization
Self-organization has been defined as "the
spontaneous emergence of macroscopic nonequilibrium organization structures due to the
collective interactions among a large assemblage of simple microscopic objects." (Prigogene
1997a) In simpler terms, self-organization is the
spontaneous emergence of a large system via

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Journal of Futures Studies

24

the collective innovations of several simple and

smaller systems. Self-organizing systems incorporate all of the system concepts discussed thus
far. Self-organizing systems demonstrate the
ability of all living things to self-organize into
networks of relationships that change and
adapt as the environment fluctuates. (Prigogene
1997a) Self-organizing systems reject equilibrium so that they can stay off-balance and grow.
These systems incorporate feedback to monitor
the state of the environment, and can react, or
act independently. The key to these systems is
their capacity for choice and change. (Wheatley
1999) These systems also have dissipative
structures that recreate themselves into new
forms, and thus, these systems are extremely
adaptable. Wheatley (1999) described selforganizing systems; "The viability and resiliency
of a self-organizing system comes from its great
capacity to adapt as needed, to create structures that interface with the moment with the
environment. Neither from nor function alone
dictates how the system is organized. Instead,
self-organizing systems are process structures,
reorganizing into different forms in order to
maintain their identity." (p. 82)
Self-organizing systems also endlessly
search for the information they use to keep
themselves off-balance and alert to potential
change. (Prigogene 1977) Self-organizing systems, however, can cope with being constantly
off-balance because they have a well-defined
mission and goals. A system is much like a
human being in that it can cope more effectively with its environment if it has a deep center
and develops self-knowledge. (Harkins & Kubic
2001) Because of self-knowledge and anticipatory memory, self-organizing systems use a secondary process called self-reference as an adaptive mechanism. (Wheatley 1999) When the
environment changes and the system notices a
need for change, the system will change in a
manner that is consistent with itself. "This is
autopoiesis in action, a system focused on
maintaining itself, producing itself." (Wheatley
1999: 85) Thus, the importance of articulating
organizational purpose, vision, goals, mission,
and identifying other strategic objectives is
becoming more and more important.

Self-Organizing in Scenarios. Many organizations are beginning to use the powerful concepts of self-organization to become more
adaptable and effective. These organizations
have eliminated the rigidity in structure that
was once so prevalent. For example, Sony credits its success with the Walkman, and the
Discman, among other electronic devices to the
hands off policy of its managers. Sony executives do not examine new products until they
are nearly completed, and offer their workers a
great deal of autonomy and independence as
they develop new products. (Stacey 1996)
Wheatley (1999) described self-organizing characteristics at Oticon, a Scandanavian manufacturing company: "employees were given the
freedom to redesign their physical space...they
created maximum flexibility for themselves
...employees created nomadic offices; each person received a cell phone, a laptop computer,
and a file cart on wheels." (p. 83) Self-organization can be provided through the use scenarios
incorporating all of the aspects covered in this
paper. In this manner, self-organization and the
properties of self-organization can be used as
criteria for effective and comprehensive scenarios.
Scenarios can be used to explore more than the
external environment of the organization.
Referring to the Sony and Oticon examples,
organizations can use scenarios to explore new
ways of structuring work and the implications of
such interventions. Additionally, organizations
that constantly create scenarios to monitor internal assumptions about the business environment
and explore potential external forces are indeed
acting as self-organizing systems. (May 1996) To
clarify, the use of scenarios promotes self-organization at the organization level. Self-organization
via scenario planning can also be thought of as
what has been termed "Anticipatory Action
Learning". (Inayahtullah, 2000) In this approach,
scenarios are used to explore alternative futures
and also to create a culture in which that future
can actually occur. Requisite variety, anticipatory
memory, and self-organization are useful concepts
in scenario planning because they can help scenario planning professionals and practitioners
understand the requirements for organizations to
be innovative in a constantly changing environment.

System Theory in Scenario Planning

Figure 3 An organization operating with self-organization through scenario planning

25

Journal of Futures Studies

It is clear that scenario planning is a powerful means by which to develop organizational

purpose. When viewing organizations as
teleogenic systems, it is appropriate to consider
scenario planning as a critical tool in further
developing, examining, testing, and altering
such purposes. The power of scenario planning
is seen when an organization can more effectively interface with multiple environments, as
the business environment changes with increasing pace. The complex system concepts
explored in this paper have been combined in
Figure 3 as a model of scenario planning as a
self-organizing system. It is the key argument
presented here that scenario planning, highly
informed by system theory, can enable an
organization to operate in such a state.
Figure 3 captures scenario planning as a
process within organizations. The essence of
this conceptualization includes the notion that
organizational planners can choose to consider
scenario planning as a self-organizing system
intended to provide autopoeisis, feedback, requisite variety, and anticipatory memory to
organizations. Further, scenario planning
works as a dissipative structure in that it provides a platform for considering different configurations of resources flowing through organizational processes. The benefits of taking such an
approach are expected to be:
1)Better long-term fit with the environment
2)Shorter reaction time to massive
changes in the environment
3)More efficient use of resources
4)Improved long-term financial performance, and
5)The adjustment and refinement of
organization mission, processes
and goals

Implications for Further Research

26

Senge (1990) identified system "archetypes", which he describes as events that reoccur, or are common among many systems, for
example Limits to Growth. The Limits to
Growth archetype is a positive feedback loop
that creates a secondary negative feedback

loop, which in turn, eventually slows the

growth. For example, a farmer increases crop
yield with fertilizer only to the point at which
there is enough rainfall to support continued
growth. Senge offered that the solution in such
a situation is to remove the negative feedback
rather than to push the growth - to work on
adding other means of watering the larger crop
area. Another example of this is found in
Lewin's "force field analysis" (1948: 73) in which
the concentration is on the removal of forces
working against the desired goal. It seems that
in essence, these are both attempts to regulate
the feedback that affects the system.
Although such attempts have not been
named or examined in detail in system terminology, it is tempting to offer the title "purposive feedback". This might be one method of
shaping the purpose of the system -- by regulating the feedback that affects it. By controlling
the type and amount of feedback that affects a
system, one could feasibly intentionally direct
the state of the system. While there is minimal
evidence or application of this in practice, it is a
concept that warrants further examination in
considering teleogenic systems.
Also of further interest are the other theoretical foundations of the scenario planning
process. An important question in scenario
planning is: if system theory integrates other
theory domains that are core to the scenario
planning process, what are these other theory
domains? Chermack, Lynham, & Ruona (2001)
have suggested that learning, mental models,
decision-making and performance improvement theories all apply in scenario planning and
are important domains to consider in furthering
establishing the theory base of scenario planning. It is proposed that a critical next step in
exploring and validating the application of system theory to scenario planning is a series of
case studies involving strategic problems and
issues of theory integration. For example, such
case studies might emphasize:
1) The role of scenario planning in
organization change interventions
2) Further documentation of scenario
planning aiding in crisis avoidance
3) The influence of scenario planning

System Theory in Scenario Planning

on research and development

efforts over time, and
4) The impact of scenario planning on
firm performance
An important further consideration is the
notion that system theory may best serve as a
philosophical orientation in considering the
function of scenarios and scenario planning.
System theory may also serve to integrate other
theory domains with regard to scenario planning. Scenario planning literature suggests that
other theory domains worth investigating
include learning theory, decision theory, group
process theory and performance improvement
theory (Ringland 2002a, 2002b, Chermack,
Lynham & Ruona 2001, van der Heijden 1997,
Schwartz 1991). While the review presented
here intends to present a frame for considering
the nature of scenario planning, it does not
present a detailed set of studies for "proving"
the use of system theory in scenario planning -at least, not yet. Therefore, key steps in moving
forward with the theory base of scenario planning are to identify the other theory domains,
and then revisit the role of system theory in
linking and integrating them.

Conclusions
The importance of system theory in scenario planning has been argued in several examples. The use of heuristics in conceptualizing
organizations as system has led to the consideration of several complex system concepts as
they might be applied to organizations. While
this application requires a shift in frame, for
example, the conceptualization of autopoiesis
in organizations from the mechanistic perspective is certainly a struggle; the concepts presented here seem to inform the scenario planning
process. From the use of heuristics to posit an
organization as a system to the notion of selforganization, these concepts provide the foundation for thinking differently about the problems of uncertainty and change in the business
world. Two logical conclusions given this examination of system theory are that (1) scenarios
and scenario planning can be viewed as systems
and therefore they incorporate the characteristics

and properties of systems, and (2) system theory

is an important and foundational theory in scenarios and scenario planning.
The ultimate contribution of system theory
to scenario planning seems to be the concept of
self-organization (spontaneous emergence of
macroscopic non-equilibrium organization
structures due to the collective interactions
among a large assemblage of simple microscopic objects). An organization or business unit
that can continuously regenerate itself, use
feedback networks to assess its environment,
can spontaneously alternate among a series of
structures that are organizationally formed, yet
allow resources to flow through them, and that
uses scenarios to establish requisite variety and
anticipatory memory is an organization or business unit that can cope with today's demanding
and ever-changing business environment.
(Capra 1996, Wheatley 1998, van der Heijden
1997, Schwartz 1991)
Scenarios have been advocated here as a
means for preparing organizations for an
uncertain future, but without sound theory in
place to support replication, consistent
results, and progress for the process of scenario planning, the process will likely suffer
failure through atheoretical and random or
inappropriate application. (Swanson 1999,
Micklethwait & Woolridge 1997)

Correspondence
612-387-1951
[email protected]

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