Numerical Approximation of The Implied Volatility Under Arithmetic Brownian Motion
Numerical Approximation of The Implied Volatility Under Arithmetic Brownian Motion
Numerical Approximation of The Implied Volatility Under Arithmetic Brownian Motion
Abstract
We provide an accurate approximation method for inverting an option
price to the implied volatility under arithmetic Brownian motion. The
maximum error in the volatility is in the order of 1010 of the given option price and much smaller for the near-the-money options. Thus our
approximation can be used as a near-exact solution without further refinements of iterative methods.
Keyword : implied volatility, arithmetic Brownian motion, ABM, Bachelier, rational approximation, closed form approximation
Introduction
(1)
whereas, in the Black-Scholes-Merton model, the price follows a geometric Brownian motion. The forward prices of call and put options, maturing in time T
and struck at K with the current forward price F0 , are accordingly given by
(2)
C = E{max(FT K, 0)} = (F0 K) N (d) + T n(d)
where n( ) and N ( ) are the probability density function and the cumulative
distribution function of the standard normal distribution respectively and d is
the moneyness measured in the units of the standard deviation,
d = (F0 K) / ( T ).
(4)
The implied volatility under arithmetic Brownian motion is the volatility that
produces the given option price from Eqns. (2) or (3). For the rest of the article,
this implied volatility will be referred as the normal implied volatility as opposed
to the lognormal implied volatility from the Black-Scholes-Merton model.
Although the Bachelier model is seemingly obsolete because it allows the underlying price to become negative, its use can not be neglected. For the pricing
of options whose underlying asset value is not necessarily positive, arithmetic
Brownian motion is more appropriate for the stochastic process than geometric
Brownian motion. Spread options actively traded in fixed income and commodity markets are such an example (Poitras, 1998; Carmona and Durrleman, 2003).
In those products, the normal implied volatility is naturally used to quote the
option price.
Even when the underlying price is positive, the normal implied volatility
provides greater insight than the lognormal implied volatility if the price process
is closer to an arithmetic Brownian motion. Interest rate derivatives are an
example of such asset classes. The downward sloping volatility skew observed
in the lognormal volatility space of the swaption market is much reduced in the
the normal volatility space. Thus traders often use the normal volatility for the
purpose of the in-house risk management.
No analytic expression is known for the normal or the lognormal implied
volatility. The calculation always depends on iterative root-finding methods
such as bisection or Newton-Raphson methods. With the computation powers
available these days, running such methods for daily risk management takes only
a fraction of a second. However, it is necessary to carefully fine-tune the solver
to ensure convergence for all possible ranges of parameters. Failure to perform
this task can lead to an unavailable hedge ratio, an important operational risk.
For the lognormal volatility Brenner and Subrahmanyam (1988); Chance
(1996); Chambers and Nawalkha (2001); Li (2007) have made several attempts
to find approximations. However, Brenner and Subrahmanyam (1988) only
dealt with the at-the-money case and Chance (1996); Chambers and Nawalkha
(2001); Li (2007) dealt with limited range of moneyness. Even within the proper
range restricted by Li (2007), the error is still large compared to the machine
precision, and thus additional refinements of iterative methods are still required.
To the best of authors knowledge, no such research has been reported on the
normal implied volatility. As it turns out, the task of inverting option prices is
much simpler in the Bachelier model than in the Black-Scholes-Merton model.
In Sec. 2, we show that the option pricing from the normal volatility is reduced
to a one-dimensional problem in a non-dimensional form. We then transform
variables so that they are better suited for approximation. In Sec. 3, we present
the approximation process in detail and the error of our best approximation. In
Sec. 4, we summarize with the actual coefficients.
2
1
v(d)
2N(d)1
tanh((/2)1/2d)
1
3
0
d
/2 d) (cross).
Without loss of generality we will only invert the price of the straddle, a combination of one call and one put option at the same strike, into the implied
volatility. Straddle is traded as much as call or put options in the market as
a bet on the volatility. If a call or put option is to be inverted, the price of
the straddle with the same strike can be obtained from the put-call parity. The
price of the straddle,
F0 K
d
=
.
C +P
d(2N (d) 1) + 2n(d)
(6)
We define the variable v in such a way that it is bounded in the range [1, 1],
since the straddle price is always worth more than the intrinsic value |F0 K|.
Thus, finding for given C +P , F0 , K and T is now equivalent to finding the
inverse of v(d).
The shape of v(d) is similar to that of 2N (d) 1 (see Fig. 1); both functions
asymptotically approach 1 in the same manner as d increases:
log(1 v(d)) log(1 N (d)) d2 /2
as
d .
(7)
We could follow the steps used to obtain the inverse of the normal cumulative
function by Acklam (2004). However, the direct inversion of v(d) causes a slight
3
(8)
and the implied volatility is obvious. To ensure the continuity from the near-thep
money to the at-the-money options, it is required that limd0 d(v)/v = 2/.
As theories on the approximation are mostly on the value of the function, the
condition on the derivative could be difficult to impose.
Our alternative approach is to view the not-at-the-money case as a perturbation from the at-the-money case; we modify Eq. (8) as
r
r
2T
2 v
C +P =
or
h=
,
(9)
h
d
and approximate h as a function of only v. The implied volatility is then calculated as
r
(C +P ) h.
(10)
=
2T
The introduced perturbation h is bounded between [0, 1]. Now the continuity
condition, h = 1 at v = 0 (d = 0), becomes a part of the approximation of the
function value.
To better approximate h, it is necessary to properly transform v. As shown
in Fig. 2, the decay of h near v = 1 is extremely steep, thus making the direct
approximation, h = h(v), quite difficult. Under the following transformation,
=
v
2v
,
=
1
log((1
+
v)/(1
v))
tanh (v)
(11)
To find a good approximation of h()/ , we use a rational Chebyshev approximation, (Press et al., 1992)
m
n
X
X
h()
ak k /
bk k
g() =
k=0
(b0 = 1).
(12)
k=0
It is known that the rational function produces a better approximation than the
polynomial approximation with the same number of coefficients. The coefficients
4
1
h(v)
0.8
h(v)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
=0.049
0.8
h()
0.6
0.4
0.2
h()
1/2 h()
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
10
x 10
13
error
error
x 10
8
0.5
3
0
0.95 1
result. It appears that the concave shape of h()/ is better suited for a
rational approximation with m > n. With this choice, we can also ensure that
is about $3 for a $1 billion portfolio. For > 0.5 (d < 1.46), where most practical
implied volatility calculations fall, the error is much smaller as 8.2 1013 (see
the inset of Fig. 4). For near-the-money options, > 0.95 (d < 0.32), the error
is 8.81015 . Thus, Eq. (8) is practically reduced for the at-the-money options.
summary
=
(C +P ) h(),
(14)
2T
where
=
(F0 K)/(C +P )
,
tanh1 ((F0 K)/(C +P ))
h() =
P7
ak k
Pk=0
,
9
k
k=0 bk
(15)
(16)
References
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F. Black and M. Scholes. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. The
Journal of Political Economy, 81(3):637654, 1973.
R. C. Merton. The theory of rational option pricing. Bell Journal of Economics
and Management Science, 4:141183, 1973.
G. Poitras. Spread options, exchange options and arithmetic brownian motion.
Journal of Futures Markets, 18(5):487517, 1998.
R. Carmona and V. Durrleman. Pricing and hedging spread options. SIAM
Review, 45(4):627685, 2003.