Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis:
Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well being of the economy,
industry groups, and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast and profit from future
price movements. At the company level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of financial data,
management, business concept and competition. At the industry level, there might be an examination of
supply and demand forces for the products offered. For the national economy, fundamental analysis might
focus on economic data to assess the present and future growth of the economy. To forecast future stock
prices, fundamental analysis combines economic, industry, and company analysis to derive a stock's current
fair value and forecast future value. If fair value is not equal to the current stock price, fundamental analysts
believe that the stock is either over or under valued and the market price will ultimately gravitate towards fair
value. Fundamentalists do not need the advice of the random walkers and believe that markets are weak form
efficient. By believing that prices do not accurately reflect all available information, fundamental analysts
look to capitalize on perceived price discrepancies. For finding the intrinsic value, fundamental analysis uses
top to bottom approach which is also called as E-I-C (Economy, Industry and Company analysis) approach.
Firstly it studies the macro economy i.e., overall health of economy as a whole and industry trends,
competitors performance. After that the next step is to examine the financial data of the company. If this
intrinsic value of the stock is more than its current market price, investor would prefer to purchase the stock
because he believes that the stock will perform better in future and it will move towards intrinsic value. If
intrinsic value of the stock is less than the market price, then investor would prefer to sell the stock because he
believes that the price of the stock will fall in future and it will come near to the intrinsic value.
2. Value Spotting:
Sound fundamental analysis will help identify companies that represent a good value. Some of the most
legendary investors think for long-term and value. Fundamental analysis can help uncover the companies with
valuable assets, a strong balance sheet, stable earnings, and staying power
3. Business Acumen:
One of the most obvious, but less tangible rewards of fundamental analysis is the development of a thorough
understanding of the business. After such painstaking research and analysis, an investor will be familiar with
the key revenue and profit drivers behind a company. Earnings and earnings expectations can be potent
drivers of equity prices. A good understanding can help investors avoid companies that are prone to shortfalls
and identify those that continue to deliver.
4. Value Drivers:
In addition to understanding the business, fundamental analysis allows investors to develop an understanding
of the key value drivers within the company. A stocks price is heavily influenced by the industry group. By
studying these groups, investors can better position themselves to identify opportunities that are high-risk
(tech), low-risk (utilities), growth oriented (computer), value driven (oil), non cyclical (consumer staples),
cyclical (transportation) etc.
2. Industry/Company Specific:
Valuation techniques vary depending on the industry group and specifics of each company. For this reason, a
different technique and model is required for different industries and different companies. This can get quite
time consuming and limit the amount of research that can be performed.
3. Subjectivity:
Fair value is based on assumptions. Any changes to growth or multiplier assumptions can greatly alter the
ultimate valuation. Fundamental analysts are generally aware of this and use sensitivity analysis to present a
base-case valuation, a best-case valuation and a worst-case valuation. However, even on a worst case, most
models are almost always bullish, the only question is how much so.
4. Analyst Bias:
The majority of the information that goes into the analysis comes from the company itself. Companies employ
investor relations managers specifically to handle the analyst community and release information
Objectives of study:
To understand the macroeconomic variables which will impact on the companys progress.
To study the various trends, opportunities, challenges of the industry in which the company operates.
To understand the various policies of the company those have impact on the financial performance of
the company.
Research Methodology:
Secondary data:
The secondary data used for the purpose of finding intrinsic value is taken from the companys financial
statements i.e. balance sheet, income statement and cash flows statements and also from the bse stock
exchange for obtaining stock values of market as well as the companies stock prices.
Sample unit:
The sample unit: An FMCG Company Colgate Palmolive ltd
Sample method:
The sample method used for fundamental analysis is Non-probabilistic judgment sampling.
Scope of study:
The study basically tries to identify the intrinsic value of the firm by using the published financial details
of the company. The study is restricted to one particular company in the sector. It helps in studying the
financial position of the companys stock and also helps to attain a decision whether to buy, sell or hold
the stock
The study was done for a short period of time, which might not hold true over a long period of time.
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