Section 2.4 - 2.5 Probability (p.

55)
2.54 Suppose that in a senior college class of 500 students it is found that
210 smoke, 258 drink alcoholic beverage, 216 eat between meals, 122 smoke and
drink alcoholic beverages, 83 eat between meals and drink alcoholic beverages,
97 smoke and eat between meals, and 52 engage in all three of these bad health
practices. If a member of this senior class is selected at random, nd the prob-
ability that the student
(a) smokes but does not drink alcoholic beverages;
sol)
Let A be the event that students smoke, B be the event that students drink
alcoholic beverage, and C be the event that students eat between meals.
P(A B

) = P(A) P(A B) =
210
500

122
500
=
88
500
(b) eats between meals and drinks alcoholic beverages but does not smoke;
sol)
P(C B A

) = P(B C) P(A B C) =
83
500

52
500
=
31
500
(c) neither smokes nor eats between meals.
sol)
P((A C)

) = 1 P(A C) = 1
329
500
=
171
500
2.56 From past experiences a stockbroker believes that under present economic
conditions a customer will invest in tax-free bonds with a probability of 0.6,
will invest in mutual funds with a probability of 0.3, and will invest in both
tax-free bonds and mutual funds with a probability of 0.15. At this time, nd
the probability that a customer will invest
(a) in either tax-free bond or mutual funds;
sol)
Let A be an event that a customer will invest in tax-free bonds and B be an
event that a customer will invest in mutual funds.
Then, P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.3, and P(A B) = 0.15.
P(A B) = P(A) +P(B) P(A B) = 0.6 + 0.3 0.15 = 0.75
(b) in neither tax-free bonds nor mutual funds.
sol)
P((A B)

) = 1 P(A B) = 1 0.75 = 0.25

1
2.60 A pair of fair dice is tossed. Find the probability of getting
(a) a total of 8;
sol)
Let A be an event that getting a total of 8.
A = {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}
P(A) =
5
36
(b) at most a total of 5.
sol)
Let B be an event that getting at most of a total of 5.
B = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1), (1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1), (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)}
P(B) =
10
36
=
5
18
2.62 If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books
of poems, and a dictionary, what is the probability that
(a) the dictionary is selected?
sol)
Let A be an event that the dictionary is selected.
n =

1
1

8
2

=
8!
2!6!
= 28
N =

9
3

=
9!
3!6!
= 84
P(A) =
n
N
=
28
84
=
1
3
(b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?
sol)
Let B be an event that 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected.
n =

5
2

3
1

=
5!
2!3!

3!
1!2!
=
54321
21321

321
21
= 30
N =

9
3

=
9!
3!6!
= 84
P(B) =
n
N
=
30
84
=
5
14
2.63 In a poker band consisting of 5 cards, nd the probability of holding
(a) 3 aces;
sol)
n =

4
3

48
2

=
4!
3!1!

48!
2!46!
=
4
1

4847
2
= 4512
N =

52
5

=
52!
5!47!
=
5251504948
54321
= 2598960
P(A) =
n
N
=
4512
2598960
=
94
54145
= 0.001736
(b) 4 hearts and 1 club.
2
sol)
n =

13
4

13
1

=
13!
4!9!

13!
12!1!
=
13121110
4321

13
1
= 9295
N =

52
5

=
52!
5!47!
=
5251504948
54321
= 2598960
P(A) =
n
N
=
9295
2598960
=
143
39984
= 0.003576
2.64 In a game of Yahtzee, where 5 dice are tossed simultaneously, nd the
probability of getting 4 of a kind.
sol)
Any four of a kind, say four 2s and one 5 occur in

5
1

= 5 ways each with

probability (1/6)(1/6)(1/6)(1/6)(1/6) = (1/6)
5
. Since there are 6 5 = 30
ways to choose various pairs of numbers to constitute four of one kind and one
of the other (we use permutation instead of combination is because that four
2s and one 5, and four 5s and one 2 are two dierent ways), the probability is
(5)(3)(1/6)
5
=
25
1296
.
Section 2.6 - 2.7 Conditional probability (p.65)
2.79 A random sample of 200 adults are classied below by sex and their level
of education attained.
If a person is picked at random from this group, nd the probability that
(a) the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary education;
sol)
Let M be an event that the person is a male and S be an event that the person
has a secondary education.
P(S) =
28+50
200
=
78
200
P(M S) =
28
200
P(M | S) =
P(MS)
P(S)
=
78
200
28
200
=
28
78
=
14
39
(b) the person does not have a college degree, given that the person is a fe-
male.
sol)
Let F be an event that the person is a female and C be an event that the person
have a college degree.
P(F) =
45+50+17
200
=
112
200
P(C

F) =
45+50
200
=
95
200
P(C

| F) =
P(C

F)
P(F)
=
95
200
112
200
=
95
112
3
2.85 The probability that a married man wathces a certain television show
is 0.4 and the probability that a married woman watches the show is 0.5. The
probability that a man watches the show, given that his wife does, is 0.7. Find
the probability that
(a) a married couple watches the show;
sol)
Let M be an event that a married man watches the show and W be an event
that a married woman watches the show.
P(M) = 0.4,P(W) = 0.5,P(M | W) = 0.7
P(M W) = P(M)P(M | W) = 0.5 0.7 = 0.35
(b) a wife watches the show given that her husband does;
sol)
P(W | M) =
P(MW)
P(M)
=
0.35
0.4
=
7
8
= 0.875
(c) at least 1 person of a married couple will watch the show.
sol)
P(W M) = P(M) +P(W) P(M W) = 0.4 + 0.5 0.35 = 0.55
2.93 A town has 2 re engines operating independently. The probability that a
specic engine is available when needed is 0.96.
(a) What is the probability that neither is available when needed?
sol)
Let A
1
be an event that one re engine is available and A
2
be an event that the
other re engine is available.
P(A

1
A

2
) = P(A

1
)P(A

2
) = (1P(A
1
))(1P(A
2
)) = (10.96)(10.96) =
0.04 0.04 = 0.0016
(b) What is the probability that a re engine is available when needed?
sol)
P(A
1
A
2
) = 1 P(A

1
A

2
) = 1 0.0016 = 0.9984
2.97 Find the probability of randomly selecting 4 good quarts of milk in succes-
sion from a cooler containing 20 quarts of which 5 have spoiled, by using
(a) the rst formula of Theorem 2.15 on page 64;
sol)
4
Let A
1
be an event that the rst quart of milk is good, A
2
be an event that
the second quart of milk is good, A
3
be an event that the third quart of milk is
good, and A
4
be an event that the forth quart of milk is good.
P(A
1
) =
15
20
P(A
2
| A
1
) =
14
19
P(A
3
| A
1
A
2
) =
13
18
P(A
4
| A
1
A
2
A
3
) =
12
17
P(A
1
A
2
A
3
A
4
) = P(A
1
)P(A
2
| A
1
)P(A
3
| A
1
A
2
)P(A
4
| A
1
A
2
A
3
) =
15
20

14
19

13
18

12
17
=
91
323
(b) the formulas of Theorem 2.8 and 2.9 on pages 46 and 50, respectively.
sol)
Let A be an event that the 4 quarts of milk are good.
n =

15
4

=
15!
4!11!
N =

20
4

=
20!
4!16!
P(A) =
n
N
=
15!
4!11!
20!
4!16!
=
15141312
20191817
=
91
323
Section 2.8 Bayes rule (p.72)
2.101 In a certain region of the country it is known from past experience that
the probability of selecting an adult over 40 years of age with cancer is 0.05. If
the probability of a doctor correctly diagnosing a person with cancer as having
the disease is 0.78 and the probability of incorrectly diagnosing a person with-
out cancer as having the disease is 0.06, what is the probability that a person
is diagnosed as having cancer?
sol)
Let C be an event that a person with cancer is 0.05 and D be an event that a
doctor diagnosing a person as having the disease.
P(C) = 0.05,P(D | C) = 0.78,P(D | C

) = 0.06
P(D) = P(D C) + P(D C

) = P(C)P(D | C) + P(C

)P(D | C

) =
0.05 0.78 + 0.95 0.06 = 0.0390 + 0.0570 = 0.0960
2.103 Referring to Excercise 2.101, what is the probability that a person di-
agnosed as having cancer actually has the disease?
sol)
P(C | D) =
P(CD)
P(D)
=
P(C)P(DC)
P(D)
=
0.050.78
0.0960
=
13
32
= 0.40625
2.107 Pollution of the rivers in the United States has been a problem for many
years. Consider the following events:
5
A=The river is polluted.
B=A sample of water tested detects pollution.
C=Fishing permitted.
Assume P(A) = 0.3, P(B | A) = 0.75, P(B | A

) = 0.20, P(C | A B) = 0.20,

P(C | A

B) = 0.15, P(C | A B

) = 0.80, and P(C | A

) = 0.90.
(a) Find P(A B C).
sol)
P(A) = 0.3
P(A B) = P(A)P(B | A) = 0.3 0.75 = 0.225
P(A B C) = P(A B)P(C | A B) = 0.225 0.20 = 0.045
(b) Find P(B

C).
sol)
P(A

B) = P(A

)P(B | A

) = (1 0.3) 0.20 = 0.14

P(A

B C) = P(A

B)P(C | A

B) = 0.14 0.15 = 0.021

P(A B

) = P(A) P(A B) = 0.3 0.225 = 0.075

P(A B

C) = P(A B

)P(C | A B

) = 0.075 0.80 = 0.06

P(B) = P(A B) +P(A

B) = 0.225 + 0.14 = 0.365

P(A B) = P(A) +P(B) P(A B) = 0.3 + 0.365 0.225 = 0.44
P(A

C) = P(A

)P(C | A

) = (1P(AB)) P(C | A

) =
(1 0.44) 0.90 = 0.504
P(B

C) = P(A B

C) +P(A

C) = 0.06 + 0.504 = 0.564

(c) Find P(C).
sol)
P(C) = P(B

C)+P(ABC)+P(A

BC) = 0.564+0.045+0.021 = 0.630

(d) Find the probability that the river is polluted, given that shing is per-
mitted and the sample tested did not detect pollution.
sol)
P(A | C B

) =
P(AB

C)
P(B

C)
=
0.06
0.564
= 0.1064
6