GETTING STARTED

WITH
BPM SIMULATION
featuring case studies from
2 CONTENTS
Introduction .. 3

Rule 1 .. 4

Rule 2 .. 4

Rule 3 .. 4

Rule 4 .. 4

Rule 5 .. 9

Case Study: Crimestoppers .. 11

Case Study: MacDill .. 14

Case Study: Nationwide .. 17



3 INTRODUCTION
This ebook has been written for business process modellers who wish to begin using
predictive simulation analysis to answer questions about their process design. It offers
advice and guidance to help those new to the technology to have a better experience of
using simulation for the first time within a project.

Many BPM vendors now include simulation as a standard feature, however the content
here is largely independent of the modelling software in use.


About Lanner

Lanners predictive simulation solutions deliver unprecedented insight into existing operations as well as
guidance through foresight for making the best business decisions for the future.

With its headquarters and software development based in the UK, Lanner works with organizations
around the world to optimize their resources, streamline supply chains, design new facilities, manage
valuable assets, and drive business performance.

Lanners predictive simulation applications and solutions are widely deployable across distributed cloud
environments, mobile devices and secure networks, and its standards based, award winning simulation
engine has been embedded across leading vendors BPM software suites.

For more information, visit www.lanner.com or follow @Lanner on Twitter.
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4
Be clear as to the Question being answered, and the focus of the
simulation.

Two common areas of focus are;

1. Process Validation
2. Process Optimization

This focus should guide the way the user looks to determine which results are collated and
presented in the project. The user must be clear as to the Measure of what good looks
like, and also the target or level of this measure that the business is looking to achieve.
Often determining this measure is not simple and may require diplomatic consultancy
skills. An old story can be used to indicate the importance of getting the measure
rightCEO says I want to minimize the costs incurred by my process..the answer to
this is obvious shut down your operation!

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RULE 1
5
Develop the appropriate measures and targets, after all you cant
improve what you arent measuring.

Ideally thinking in this way will aid clarity, this will mean that new users will get a better
first exposure to simulation and non-simulation specialists will reduce the amount of
output data they have to sift through, making it easier to design the simulation exercise in
terms of experimentation and data.

Process Validation

This is about testing a process in terms of its structure and the frequency that tasks take
place. This simulation does not need the full process data in terms of task timings, token
arrival patterns or resource information. It merely requires the process model and
percentages for XOR junctions. This is in fact partly what simulation provides as an engine
within Bizagi Process Modeler.

The simulation would first run an arbitrary number of tokens through the system, reporting
the number of times each task is fired and count the number of tokens at each end event.
Potentially in a process which has an error in it, a token could get stuck.the simulation
would need to recognise that and report accordingly. This use of simulation can help
identify potentially little used steps in a process which could be eradicated by changes to
the process.
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RULE 2
6
A second run would then be done with more tokens and the results offered to the user, if
the results of the second run are different to the first.the user could be offered the
chance to run again with even more tokens to ensure a statistically valid result..i.e.
output values which have settled down sufficiently for the user to be confident.

This use of simulation could be an end in itself or a preliminary step in a deeper study.











RULE 2
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7
Simulation with little data still has value in terms of validating processes

Process Optimization

This is the main fully functional use of the simulation; data is now required on token arrival
patterns, task timings, task priority, resource availability and usage. The user would also
have to provide some input in terms of service level required and the parameters which are to
be optimized.

Service Level can be expressed in a number of ways, measured at end events. I suggest
below two examples;

x% of tokens completed with T time units per time period. The time period could be an
hour or a day etc. or left blank in which case the time period is the length of the simulation
run, so the results provided for each token type is a list of percentages.
Rather than % completed with a time T, the service level could be purely described as a
throughput figure per time period.

This type of measure and target could equally apply in a back office environment or in a
manufacturing facility, supply chain or where any service is being provided, e.g. Health
sector, Military pilot training.





RULE 3
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8
To provide better guidance for the user simulation tools could provide default scenarios
based on a working week, with 5 * 8 hour days, each hour being a time period for service
level calculations and for entering token arrival figures. The user being able to change this
default work week structure. The user would also select a number times the week would
be run to provide results. In my experience many simulation modellers have an approach
that they reuse for many projects as the techniques are clearly transferable from project to
project.

To optimize the process to hit the required service level the user needs to describe the
parameters for which he is looking to identify optimum values. In the BPM world this could
be (1) resources.so the user would need to select a number of settings for resource
levels with other data items being held constant. Alternatively the resource levels could be
held constant and the (2) arrival pattern of tokens changed to try and optimize throughput
given a resource level. A third (3) optimization parameter would be task priorities and max
tasks in parallel, which are effectively optimizing resource allocation rules. It is important
to change parameters in a structured way to be sure about cause and effect. Some
simulation software tools including Bizagi Process Modeler do provide automated
Optimization functionality to support the user in this search for the parameter settings
which best meet the requirements in terms of Measures achieved.




RULE 3
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9
Determine a defined list of parameters and ranges that are under
consideration and experiment accordingly

Experimentation

Simulation experimentation normally uses the concept of replications, where the random
number seeds are changed to provide a range of answers for the same data. Results are
normally made available for each replication so the user can see the range of results and
decide if sufficient replications have been run. The simulation software normally provides
the individual replication results if required, but could also offer the option to supply a
single averaged set of results.





RULE 4
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10
Undertake sufficient experimentation and replications to be sure valid
answers are obtained.

When a number of scenarios (sets of parameter values) deliver very similar results, the
decision of which to adopt is normally taken based on other criteria rather than purely the
simulation output. Accuracy of results does depend to some extent on the business
question being answered, is Scenario A better than Scenario B does not need totally
accurate results, merely confidence of the relative difference between the output
measures. If however the purpose is to predict a specific service level metric e.g. 90% of
emergency patients are served within 2 hours, more accuracy is required, particularly if
failure to meet the target resulted in penalty costs.

Readers of this short post will no doubt recognise that Simulation Modelling and Project
Management is a large topic, indeed many text books have been written on the subject.
This post has been successful if it has provided some light for new users embarking on
simulation projects.


RULE 5
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11
Crimestoppers Optimises Productivity and Performance Using PRISM



Crimestoppers used PRISM to model its calling handling process, ensuring that the
increased number of calls were answered and efficiently dealt with.










In April 2012, Crimestoppers took on a substantial increase in business but did not have a
large budget for new staff. The challenge was therefore to find the most efficient way of
dealing with the extra demand. Crimestoppers turned to the Operational Research Society
(ORS) who had recently formed a new group called OR in the Third Sector (ORiTS) to
provide free support to charities and voluntary organisations.
CASE STUDY - CRIMESTOPPERS
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Crimestoppers is an independent charity helping
the police to find criminals and solve crimes.
Crimestoppers is best known for the anonymous
0800 555 111 phone number where the general
public can pass on information about crime,
though in recent years this has been augmented
by the Crimestoppers website where users can
complete an online form.

12
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Lanner was a natural choice for both Crimestoppers and the ORiTS team. Lanner has been working with
police forces around the UK for 15 years to help them improve their operations. Lanner PRISM is a
simulation tool designed to support forces in their drive for efficiency. As a virtual police force PRISM
has helped revolutionise the way police forces across the UK make decisions, reducing risk, saving time
and saving money.

PRISM was used to build a simulation model of the Crimestoppers call centre, spanning
three types of personnel: call handlers, online staff and shift leaders.

This approach led to:-

Thorough data analysis allowing identification of variations in demand.
The ability to simulate and optimise different shift and staffing patterns with a
comprehensive assessment of the impact.
Proposals for new shift patterns, which the model indicated would significantly increase
performance for no increase in staffing costs.
The development of staffing profiles for optimal performance for quiet, average and busy
weeks.
Comparison of current and proposed shifts over an actual weeks operations.

CASE STUDY - CRIMESTOPPERS
13
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CASE STUDY - CRIMESTOPPERS
The analysis indicated that the resulting changes in shift patterns and staffing would lead to a 7%
increase of those calls answered within the target time of 20 seconds, taking the contact centre
over its 90% service level target. In addition, the average time to answer a call should decrease by
41% and there is expected to be a 47% decrease in abandoned calls.











Jane Parkin, Operational Research analyst, said: The strength of PRISM is that it is designed
specifically for this environment and is backed up by a wide array of simulation expertise at Lanner.
When a charity such as Crimestoppers gives you positive feedback that the simulation will improve
the efficiency of the organisation, you know it has been time well spent and that the tools such as
PRISM, do the job.
14
BPI Simulation Modeling Improves Order Fulfilment at MacDill Air Force
Base



WITNESS software reduced PharmaCARE drive-thru cycle times; cutting consumer waiting
times by 35%

Senior military managers recognized that providing a swift and efficient pharmacy service
to the largest single medical services catchment area in the Department of Defense
some 106,000 people was crucial to maintaining high morale and customer service
standards at MacDill Air Force Base (AFB), Tampa, FL.

MacDills PharmaCARE Center Refill Pick-Up drive-thru was a relatively new service at the
base intended to act as the central point for picking up all phoned-in refill requests for
prescription medications.






CASE STUDY MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE
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15














Due to the high number of process variables, such as the number of prescription
medications available, controlled / non-controlled medications, refrigerated medications,
and random customer arrival times, the AFSO21 team employed the use of a WITNESS
simulation model to analyze the current operation.

The use of the simulation model was ideal to evaluate the complex processes of the
PharmaCARE Centers drive-thru service. The statistical output of the model also provided
the AFSO21 team with insight as to where additional performance improvement areas of
opportunity existed.



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CASE STUDY MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE
Following several reports of lengthy wait times for
the fulfilment of medication orders at the drive-thru
facility, DoD representatives at MacDill AFB engaged
the services of a Business Process Improvement (BPI)
consultancy to review and optimize the service using
Lanners WITNESS simulation platform.

Working with the support of management
consultancy Mainstream GS, MacDills Air Force
Smart Operations for the 21st Century (AFSO21)
team conducted a Lean assessment of the
PharmaCARE Center Refill Pick-Up drive-thru s
current processes and procedures.

16
The simulation model that was developed provided the AFSO21 team with a tool to
quickly test, verify, and optimize the entire system before any change or expenditure was
committed to the live drive-thru system, avoiding the possibility of any costly mistakes.
This was also extremely useful for demonstrating the effects of any proposed changes on
service levels.

By using Lanners Simulation technology, the DoD were able to streamline the bases
PharmaCARE Refill Pick- Up drive-thru operations, shaving wait times by up to 35%
despite a seasonal increase of orders between 30-35%.

As a result, even during peak periods, long lines are now a thing of the past. Commenting
on the remarkable outcome of using WITNESS simulation modeling software, Airman Van
Tassell from MacDill says, The use of standard work and visual aids have really paid off,
resulting in reduced cycle times and improved customer service.


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CASE STUDY MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE
17
Nationwide: A Model of Good Planning



Lanner helps Nationwide streamline its customer care services, through utilising resources
and refining processes

Today building societies and banks are using every conceivable tool in their armouries to
identify and deliver new ways of gaining competitive advantage through improved
customer service. Being first to market with attractive products supported by superior
services is the key to success. One of the techniques used by the Nationwide building
society to improve both customer service and speed-to-market is computer-based
predictive modelling tools supplied by Lanner.

Nationwide identified customer service as a key business differentiator. On a day-to-day
basis the ability to respond quickly to a query, answer telephone calls promptly
and accurately, provide high quality information about new products or reduce queuing
times in branches is vital to customer satisfaction levels.

A recent example of the partnership between Nationwide and Lanner involved a
sophisticated application that helped streamline customer call centre operations shared
between the societys Swindon and Northampton offices. Between them the two centres
manage well over 300,000 customer service or telephone sales calls a month.

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CASE STUDY NATIONWIDE
18
A recent example of the partnership between Nationwide and Lanner involved a
sophisticated application that helped streamline customer call centre operations shared
between the societys Swindon and Northampton offices. Between them the two centres
manage well over 300,000 customer service or telephone sales calls a month.



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CASE STUDY NATIONWIDE
Customers often call with more than one query, and
therefore need to speak with more than one advisor,
which may mean routing calls between staff in different
sites.

The situation is further complicated because call length
and overall patterns can be deflected from the norm by
Nationwides own advertising campaigns, the time of
the day, week, or year. Other circumstances such as
changes in the interest rate or announcements in The
Budget can also bring about changes in demand.

Lanner was commissioned to implement a tool to predict
the number of staff required consistently to achieve the
service levels specified by Nationwides Central
Administration Unit (CAU). The model needed to take
into account all of the CAUs activities including account
opening, account servicing, customer support, quality
control and query handling, all of which equated to
significant levels of activity.

19
The model was built using input from key staff
such as line managers and systems experts
to develop a map of all key processes. Some
information from the launch of PEPs and
TESSAs was used to build the model, although
the ISAs involved new business processes and
staff now had a wider range of more advanced
technologies at their disposal.
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CASE STUDY NATIONWIDE
Lanner transposed the conceptual model into its computerised equivalent to allow
Nationwide to carry out its what if analyses of its ideas. The model helped managers to
focus on the real issues and assess the need for and capability of resources,
says Martin Davies. It drew minds together and ensured we were clear about the
processes involved and the implications before we made any commitments.

The outcome was that we were able to match working patterns, resources, expertise
levels, and the mix of full-time and part time staff, to predicted sales volumes.