Ada 430098

The Defense Science Board
2001 Summer Study

on

DEFENSE SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY

May 2002

Office of the Under Secretary of Defense
for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics
Washington, D.C. 20301-3140

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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
3140 DEFENSE PENTAGON
WASHINGTON. DC 20301-3140
DEFENSE SCIENCE
BOARD
JUN J 4 2002
MEMORANDUM FOR PRINCIPAL DEPUTY UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
(ACQUISITION, TECHNOLOGY & LOGISTICS)
SUBJECT: Final Report of the Defense Science Board (DSB) Summer Study Task Force on
Defense Science and Technology
I am pleased to forward the final report of the DSB Task Force on Defense Science and
Technology. The Task Force was tasked to address issues involved in assuring that the U.S.
continues to gain access to and develop technology from which to gain military advantage. The
Task Force looked at future technologies that should be developed and exploited for military
application, with particular emphasis on those potential technologies that can provide the U.S.
military an asymmetric advantage.
The Report makes substantive recommendations on the content and conduct ofthe DoD
science and technology program. In their report, the Task Force states that the Department of
Defense must be enabled by transformation of its science and technology enterprise and must
continue to adapt rapidly to meet challenges and exploit opportunities.
T endorse all of the Task Force's recommendations and propose you review the Task Force
Co-Chair's letter and report.
w X & u 0&AJ<~
William Schneider, Jr.
DSB Chairman

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
DEFENSE SCIENCE
BOARD
MEMORANDUM FOR THE CHAIRMAN, DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD
SUBJECT: Final Report of the Defense Science Board Summer Study on
Defense Science and Technology
Transformation of the Department of Defense must be enabled by a
transformation of its science and technology enterprise, which is a critical enabler
for superior warfare capabilities. Today's national security environment is
characterized by uncertainty and by a rapid pace of change. The DoD science and
technology program needs to continue to adapt rapidly to meet challenges and
exploit opportunities that arise in this environment.
The summer study task force was asked to review and evaluate three areas:
(1) how the Department's S&T investment should be spent; (2) the level of
investment that should be made in science and technology; and (3) how the
military can realize the most value from this investment. In addition, the task
force was asked to examine the contribution of the DoD laboratories in this
changing world.
The task force believes that significant changes are needed in both the
content and conduct of the DoD science and technology program if the
Department is to continue to sustain a decisive military advantage into the
future.
Our recommendations focus on transforming the Department's S&T
enterprise. They fall in seven areas:
1. Invest in new S&T initiatives in support of four transformational
challenges: defending against biological warfare defense, finding
difficult targets, making timely and accurate decisions, and enabling
high-risk operations. Expand and provide more focused management
for ongoing related S&T programs.
2. Maintain the level of S&T investment at 3 percent of the overall
DoD budget as currently planned by the Department. Provide
additional funds for new S&T priorities by reprioritizing current
programs.
3. Exploit commercial technology through expanded use of commercial
products and processes; elimination of barriers for commercial firms to
do business with the DoD; and new initiatives to forge relationships
with commercial industry.
4. Foster operational experimentation as an integral element of a new
S&T enterprise through assigned experimental units and sustained
senior attention.
5. Establish a new technology transition process with wide use of
spiral development, routine inclusion of independent red teams, and
acceleration of the acquisition cycle. Vest responsibility for joint
operational experimentation, ACTDs, and transition with the Director
of Transformation.
6. Enable development and acquisition of joint R&D by establishing
points of clear responsibility in joint C4ISR and biological warfare
defense.
7. Restructure the DoD laboratories and rebuild the scientific and
engineering workforce based on a major review of the function and
workforce in each laboratory.
Implementation of this set of recommendations will provide an enormous
improvement in the focus and effectiveness of the defense S&T enterprise. We
believe that we have identified those changes that will offer the greatest beneficial
results today.
Only modest funding is required to fully implement all of the
recommendations made in this report. The Department should be able to expand
existing programs and conduct new S&T initiatives to support transformational
challenges without new funding by reprioritizing within the S&T program.
Funding for operational experimentation and technology transition should grow
over the span of several years.
This study was completed prior to the events of September 11, 2001 and those
happenings are therefore not reflected in the text. However, a review of the
recommendations in light of that event confirms the validity of the conclusions
and the need to accelerate implementation.
_______________________________________________________ Table of Contents

i
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
PREFACE......................................................................................... iii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................... v
CHAPTER I
OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS............................................... 1
Scope and Study Approach.................................................... 3
Transformational Challenges: S&T Investment Priorities .... 6
S&T Investment Strategy .................................................... 15
Process Improvements in the S&T Enterprise..................... 19
Final Thoughts..................................................................... 30
CHAPTER II
MILITARY APPLICATIONS................................................................ 33
Analytic Approach............................................................... 35
Identifying Military Needs .................................................. 36
High Priority Military Needs............................................... 53
S&T and Operational Interface............................................ 89
Conclusions and Recommendations.................................... 92
CHAPTER III
TECHNOLOGY................................................................................. 97
Introduction ......................................................................... 99
The Technology Landscape Today.................................... 101
Biological Warfare Defense:
Pathogen to Hit............................................................... 108
No Place to Hide: Microsensor Networks ......................... 116
10
N
Wargaming: Peer-to-Peer Wargaming ...................... 122
10X Human Warrior:
Enhancing Human Performance........................................ 130

DSB Summer Study on
Defense Science and Technology ___________________________________________

ii
Basic Science Investments
Nano and Quantum Technology........................................ 136
Conclusions ....................................................................... 147
CHAPTER IV
INVESTMENT STRATEGY............................................................... 149
Embed S&T Activities Within an Expanded
Spiral Development Process.............................................. 154
Exploit Commercial and Other Non-DoD
Sources of Technology...................................................... 164
Make the DoD Laboratories More Efficient and More
Productive.......................................................................... 170
Allocation and Level of S&T Funding.............................. 173
Summary of Recommendations Related to the
S&T Enterprise .................................................................. 178
ANNEX A. TERMS OF REFERENCE ............................................... 181
ANNEX B. TASK FORCE MEMBERSHIP ........................................ 185
ANNEX C. PRESENTATIONS TO THE TASK FORCE......................... 187
ANNEX D. MILITARY PRIORITIES QUESTIONNAIRE
PROVIDED COMBATANT COMMANDERS ........................................ 191
ANNEX E. POWER....................................................................... 195
ANNEX F. BACKGROUND AND CURRENT ASSESSMENT
OF UNMANNED GROUND VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY ........................ 207
ANNEX G. REMOTER FORCE ....................................................... 221
ANNEX H. GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ....... 225

________________________________________________________________ Preface

iii
PREFACE
The Department of Defense is fundamentally transforming its
strategy, policies, and forces. This transformation is motivated by a
vastly different security environment that has emerged over the last
decade. Where once a single monolithic threatthe Soviet Union
dominated the nations security planning and programming, todays
environment comprises a broader, more diffuse set of concerns:
terrorism, biological warfare, regional tensions, and an array of
other transnational challenges. It is an environment characterized
by uncertainty, but more importantly by a rapid pace of change.
Transformation of the Department of Defense must be enabled by
a transformation of its science and technology enterprise, which is
so critical to its superior warfare capabilities. If the Department
fails to adapt to the pace of technological change, fails to rapidly
integrate new and breakthrough technologies into its operational
systems, or fails to sustain a research and development environment
that fosters innovation, the United States stands in danger of losing
what today is a significant lead in military capability.
Assuring that the United States continues to gain access to and
develop technology from which to gain military advantage is the
subject of this report.
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iv

_____________________________________________________ Executive Summary

v
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Technology has been and must continue to be a key enabler of military
advantage, both in conflict and in situations where conflict is close at
hand. Over the years, the Department of Defense (DoD) science and
technology (S&T) program has discovered, invented, harnessed, and
demonstrated such enabling technologies. As industry becomes more
global, as scientific endeavors in other countries become more
competitive, and as affordable technology increasingly issues from
commercial sources, the DoD science and technology program needs to
continue to adapt to meet challenges and exploit opportunities that arise.
The Defense Science Board 2001 Summer Study task force was asked
to examine three aspects of the DoD science and technology program:
How the Departments S&T investment should be spent.
The level of investment in science and technology.
How the military can realize the most value from this
investment.
The task force concluded that significant changes are needed in both
the content and conduct of the DoD science and technology program if
the Department is to continue to sustain a decisive military advantage.
The task force offers recommendations for change in the following
areas:
New initiatives and focus for sustained S&T efforts.
The level of S&T investment.
Adaptation of commercial technology.
Operational experimentation.
The technology transition process.
Research and development for joint requirements.
DoD laboratories.
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vi
S&T INVESTMENT PRIORITIES:
TRANSFORMATIONAL CHALLENGES
Challenges in the national security environment mean changes for the
Departments science and technology program. New threats, new
adversaries, emerging disruptive technologies, and the speed with which
knowledge spreads and technology is applied are among the new
challenges to which the Department of Defense must respond.
The S&T enterprise must support these needs. The task force has
identified four S&T transformational challenges that will provide real
military potential if given more focus and acceleration. In each case, the
task force identified an ongoing S&T effort that warrants significant
augmentation, acceleration, and increased focus. It also identified a
particularly high-payoff and timely new project that can help focus the
efforts in each area. In addition to implementing these focused programs,
the task force recommends that the Department continue its level of effort
in basic research in emerging areas such as nanotechnology and quantum
science.
S&T CHALLENGE #1:
DEFENDING AGAINST BIOLOGICAL WARFARE ____________
Biological agents present an increasing threat to the U.S. military,
allies, and homeland. The only effective strategy against this threat is to
address all dimensions of defense, from deterrence to therapeutics. A
DoD-wide strategy for biological warfare (BW) defense needs to be
implemented and supported by a comprehensive science and technology
program. DoD is investing in S&T research in a number of areas, but the
current program is not coordinated in a way that will provide effective,
integrated results. Moreover the current program needs a major infusion
of resources: an increase from the current $250 million to at least $1
billion per year.
The high-payoff, focused project recommended for the biological
warfare defense area is Pathogen to Hit. Its aim is to develop an
effective therapeutic response to biological agents by dramatically
compressing the time it takes to identify and develop effective drugs.
Modern geonomics and proteomics provide new tools to make this goal
achievable. While this is but one step in an integrated solution, an
effective therapeutic response can be a powerful deterrent against the use
of biological warfare agents.


vii
S&T CHALLENGE #2:
FINDING DIFFICULT TARGETS __________________________
Recent operational experiences indicate a need to improve the
militarys ability to find targets that are concealed by camouflage, foliage,
or structure, or that are underground; to identify moving targets, especially
in adverse weather; and to discriminate decoys from real targets. The
United States needs a fully-integrated, layered intelligence, surveillance,
and reconnaissance (ISR) capability. The task force believes that with a
more focused effort over the next decade, progress in developing such a
system is possible. S&T efforts will need to focus on developing new
capabilities in remote sensing and data processing.
The focused project recommended in this area is referred to as Micro-
Sensor Networks. Proliferated surface sensors can provide another tier of
a layered defense, complementing airborne sensors and unmanned aerial
vehicles with sensors that operate underneath concealment.
Technological developments in micro-sensorsmaking them more
capable, smaller, diverse, and lower in costas well as advances in
adaptive networks provide an opportunity to develop the surface-based
sensing tier.
S&T CHALLENGE #3:
MAKING TIMELY, ACCURATE DECISIONS _________________
Today military planning takes a long time, which may result in plans
that do not reflect reality at the time a mission is executed. The task force
believes that a focused, expanded S&T program can result in a much more
effective, integrated, automated decision support system, capable of being
used to synchronize both individuals and groups in joint and combined
operations. Such a system would include automated decision support
services as well as self-configuring, self-healing mobile networks.
Better decisions can also be enabled by increasing leadership
experiences and by a more diverse set of operational tactics and doctrine.
Because of its powerful potential, the recommended focused project to
address this challenge is the exploration of Massive Multi-Player
Gaming. This new cultural and technical phenomenon offers the
potential for a new way to devise and to explore military concepts. The
virtual environment provides a platform in which many individuals can
participate regardless of location, an opportunity for free-form
experimentation, and the potential for faster, more innovative concept
development.
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viii
S&T CHALLENGE #4:
ENABLING HIGH-RISK OPERATIONS ____________________
The majority of military casualties occur in close combat. Unmanned
systems offer the potential to effectively engage the adversary while
lessening friendly losses. Advances have been made in software agents
and robotic control technology that can accelerate the development of
unmanned systems. The task force advocates an expansion of existing
S&T programs in unmanned systems that focus on operational
demonstrations designed to achieve specific missions such as an urban
assault in a free-fire zone.
Combat performance is also limited by the human element. The
potential for improving human performance is sufficiently exciting that
a program of research and development should be undertaken in that area.
Demands on the warfighter are growing as operational tempo and the
sophistication of weapon systems increases. Improving human
performanceusing a myriad of techniques that could increase strength,
memory, or sensory perception or decrease requirements for sleep and
foodis one way to advance warfighting capabilities.
S&T INVESTMENT
STRATEGY
The task force believes the four transformational challenges
described above are appropriate investment priorities for the
Department.
The figure below summarizes the estimated level of current investment
as well as the recommended new investment in each of the areas
discussed. In the aggregate, research in the areas of the four
transformational challenges and in the areas recommended by the task
force for long-term basic research, currently receive funding of about $1.7
billion per year. The task force recommends increasing this investment by
$1.8 billion, to approximately double the annual funding for these
programs and thus make possible the changes and initiatives
recommended by the task force. Funding for these initiatives should come
from reprioritizing existing S&T programs (15-20 percent of the current
S&T funding), although other sources are also appropriate, such as
changes in accounting for advanced concept technology demonstrations
(ACTDs).


ix

Each of the S&T programs discussed (listed in the top row of the
figure) should be managed by a single organization but executed by those
best qualifiedwhich typically will include many organizations. The task
force recommends that the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) be
given the responsibility for biological warfare defense S&T and that the
other programs in the upper row be managed by the Director, Defense
Research and Engineering (DDR&E) but with more control than is
common today. The focused, high-payoff projects in the second row are
particularly well suited to the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency
(DARPA) style of project-oriented management. Research can be
managed loosely, as is the current practice today.
S&T INVESTMENT:
RECOMMENDATION #1 ________________________________
The additional resources needed to fund the four S&T initiatives
described should eventually reach a total of about $1.8 billion annually.
These initiatives can be funded through three measures.
The Secretary of Defense should
Achieve and sustain investment in S&T of 3 percent (of the
top line DoD budget.
The Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and
Logistics (USD (AT&L)) should

Human
Performance
Massive
Multi - player
Gaming
Micro -Sensor
Networks
Pathogen to
Hit
New S&T Projects
Unmanned
Systems
Decision
Tools
Network S&T
ISR S&T
(sensors,
exploitation)
BW Defense
S&T
Focused Ongoing
S&T Programs
Human
Performance
Massive
Multi - player
Gaming
Micro -Sensor
Networks
Pathogen to
Hit
New S&T Projects
Unmanned
Systems
Decision
Tools
Network S&T
ISR S&T
(sensors,
exploitation)
BW Defense
S&T
Focused Ongoing
S&T Programs
Transformational Challenges
Quantum
Nano
-
technology
Long Term
Research
$250+ $750M
$0 +$200M $50 +$100M $0 + $20M $150 + $30M
$50 + $150M $250 +$150M $650+$200M
$150
+$100M
$100
+ $75M
Defending
Against
Biological
Warfare
Finding
Difficult
Targets
Making
Timely,
Accurate
Decisions
Enabling
High-Risk
Operations
Current Funding (est)
~$1.7B
Increased Funding
~$1.8B
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x
Reprioritize 15-20 percent of the current S&T budget over
the next two to three years.
Provide $500 million of 6.4A funds to move current ACTDs
from 6.3 and use current 6.3 funds as part of funding new
initiatives.
MANAGING S&T INITIATIVES:
RECOMMENDATION #2 _______________________________
Managing the recommended S&T initiatives should take different
form for different projectsoptions include direction under a single focal
point, management within DDR&E, a project-oriented approach like that
of DARPA, and coordination as scattered efforts.
The USD (AT&L) should
Establish a single focal point for biological warfare defense
S&T.
Re-institute the Format-I to provide muscle for the
DDR&E to effectively control focused ongoing S&T
programs.
PROCESS IMPROVEMENTS
IN THE S&T ENTERPRISE
There is an imperative related to each of the transformational
challenges: the need to capture and exploit technological advances that
are progressing largely in the commercial worldand that are progressing
at great speed. The Departments science and technology enterprise must
become more agile, more flexible, and more adaptive to be effective in
this challenging environment. In particular, as technology becomes more
rapidly available to potential adversaries, DoD must be able to incorporate
the latest technology into military capabilities more rapidly as wellin
timeframes measured in months, not decades.
Over the last ten years, the Defense Science Board alone has
conducted nearly three-dozen studies on improving processes in the S&T
enterprise. Drawn from this body of work, this task force has identified
two areas that have the potential to transform the entire S&T,
acquisition, and requirements process. They are as follows:


xi
Assuring access to developing commercial technology.
Adopting an integrated process of operational
experimentation, spiral development, and technology
transition to users.
In addition, the task force believes it is important to comment on and
make suggestions regarding one long-standing and much-studied problem:
rejuvenation of the DoD laboratories.
ACCESS TO COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGY:
RECOMMENDATION #3 ________________________________
The Department of Defense no longer leads in the development of
many technologies essential in enabling the nations future military
superiority. Because of its complex and burdensome system of
procurement regulations and processessuch as accounting and
information system requirementsthe Department continues to deny itself
access to many industries.
To improve access to commercial industry and ensure continued
exploitation of commercially developed technology, the Department must
pursue a three-prong approach: 1) provide incentives within DoD to use
commercial products, practices, and processes as the norm; 2) reduce
barriers that inhibit commercial firms from working with DoD contractors
and with DoD directly; and 3) foster relationships and create new
incentives with critical technology sectors to motivate them to apply their
knowledge and people to critical national security challenges.
Mandate the use of commercial practices, tools, techniques,
components, software, and materials in DoD systems by
establishing commercial technology as the norm; require
justification for DoD-specific technology.
Develop and implement acquisition processes that remove
barriers and create incentives for commercial corporations
to support DoD.
Personally engage with the biotechnology and
pharmaceutical industries to build relationships with DoD
and create effective partnerships.
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xii
Forge close relationship with the Secretary of Health and
Human Services.
OPERATIONAL EXPERIMENTATION:
RECOMMENDATION #4 _______________________________
The Department of Defense must dramatically improve its S&T and
acquisition processes or risk being out-paced by its adversaries. In
particular, there is a need for more rapid transition from technology to
system within timeframes that are measured in weeks or months.
Operational experimentation and spiral development, properly executed,
force a more integrated approach and provide the basis for an improved
technology transition process.
Operational experimentation addresses all three elements of the
Departments transformation processchanges in organization of forces,
changes in doctrine and tactics, and changes in technology. The value of
experimentation is to pursue many options and ideas and to provide a
forum for collaboration between the operational warfighter and
technologist.
The Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff should
Form experimental units in each Service and Joint Forces
Command.
Form corresponding, dedicated operational red teams.
Assign senior points of responsibility for fostering
operational innovation and full use of experimentation.
Provide funds for Joint and multi-Service experimentation.
Fund and support increased use of ACTDs. Decrease
timescales and formality.
A NEW TECHNOLOGY TRANSITION PROCESS:
RECOMMENDATION #5 _______________________________
The science and technology and acquisition processes need to be
considered as a single enterprise. Within this enterprise, the purpose of
the S&T community is to generate options and opportunities for the
warfighter. Significant changes are needed to more closely integrate
operational experimentation, spiral development, and technology


xiii
transitionproviding a path from the S&T base to the user. Key elements
of a new approach include a dramatically shorter acquisition cycle,
expanded use of red teaming, expanded use of ACTDs, spiral
development, and operational experimentation.
Implement the new process outlined for innovative concept
development and expanded use of red teams and ACTDs.
- Mandate 5-year acquisition cycle.
Give the Director of Transformation responsibility for joint
operational experimentation, ACTDs, and technology
transition.
Provide 6.4A funds to catalyze change.
- New funds growing to ~1.4 billion per year.
- Approximately $650 million of this funding should be
under direct control of the Director of Transformation; the
balance should be in ACTDs under Services.

1
Red Thinking
&
Red Teams
S&T
(Opportunities, ideas,
flashes of insight)
Operational Experiments
Concepts of Employment,
usefulness/military value)
ACTD-like
activities
(Augment)
Acquisition Programs
Limited Buys
S&T
6.4a
6.4a
MS-A
MS-C
MS-B
5
yrs
Block 1
Block 2
Block 3
Field in
Spiral
Development
Whats New
S&T driven by 5-year
acquisition cycle
Pulls S&T
Dynamic & iterative
Red teaming & action
Rapid spiral
development
More experiments
bringing players
together
Expanded ACTDs as
the S&T customer
Rapid acquisition funds
Blue
Thinking &
Operations
Rapid Acquisition
Funding
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xiv
RESPONSIBILITY FOR JOINT
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT:
RECOMMENDATION #6 _______________________________
There is a special case in the technology transition area that requires
further action: the lack of a joint development organization for critical
joint warfighting capabilities. Without a joint development organization,
there is no customer pull and there is no integrated approach to systems or
solutions. Three areas where the problem has become acute are joint
command and control; joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance;
and biological warfare defense.
Establish organizations and activities responsible for joint
research, development and acquisition in command,
control, communications, and computers and intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR).
- Joint Forces Command and a Joint Program Office (co-
located)
- Adequate technical and acquisition support
Establish single point responsibility for biological warfare
defense research, development and acquisition at DTRA.
REJUVENATING THE DOD LABORATORIES:
RECOMMENDATION #7 _______________________________
Numerous studies have looked at the DoD laboratory system,
identifying serious problems. However, few have focused on the diverse
nature of laboratory functions as a basis for rejuvenating the laboratory
system. Much of the activity conducted in the laboratories, and the
majority of funds expended in or flowing through the laboratories, are not
related to S&T. The laboratories are involved in engineering
development, testing, in-service support and engineering, and acquisition
support. With a better understanding of the activities, functions, and
workforce of each laboratory, it should be possible to significantly reshape
the laboratory structure.
The USD (AT&L), with direction of the Secretary of Defense, should
instruct the DDR&E to
Review each laboratory in detail and determine individual
courses of action, to include the following:


xv
- Administrative personnel transfers.
- University management.
- Privatization, consolidation, or closure.
Complete review and begin taking action within 9 months
with end goal of 2005.
In any case, especially for those likely to remain structured
as they are, implement recommendations of the most recent
Defense Science Board study, Efficient Utilization of
Defense Laboratories (October 2000).
- Focus on personnel and quality improvements.
IN CONCLUSION
Two challenges will fundamentally change the nature of the S&T
enterprise and military capability:
Rapid technology transitiontime matters.
Transformation to new ways of fighting.
Technology is one enabler of new military capabilities and is typically
most effective only in the context of new concepts of operations and
doctrine. To accomplish both rapid technology transition and
transformation to new ways of fighting, the Department must change its
S&T enterprise through operational experimentation, rapid spiral
development, and evolutionary acquisition. Only then will the
Department be able to fully realize the benefits of the S&T investments
described in this report.

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xvi

____________________________________ CHAPTER I
OVERVIEW AND
RECOMMENDATIONS

Chapter I. Overview
___________________________________________________ and Recommendations

3
Over the years, the DoD science and technology (S&T) program has
discovered, invented, harnessed, and demonstrated technologies that have
become key enablers of military advantage. However, the technology
landscape has undergone many changes in recent yearsindustry has
become more global, scientific endeavors in other countries have become
more competitive, and affordable technology increasingly issues from
commercial sources. As a result, the DoD science and technology
program needs to continue to adapt to this evolving landscape to meet
challenges and exploit opportunities that arise.
Significant changes are needed in both the content and conduct of
the DoD science and technology program if the Department is to
continue to sustain a decisive military advantage. This report makes
recommendations in the following areas:
New initiatives and sustained S&T efforts.
The level of S&T investment.
Adaptation of commercial technology.
Operational experimentation.
The technology transition process.
Research and development for joint requirements.
DoD laboratories.
This introductory chapter discusses each of these issues and states the
task force recommendations. The recommendations are discussed in
further detail in the chapters that follow.
SCOPE AND
STUDY APPROACH
The Defense Science Board 2001 Summer Study task force was asked
to examine three areas:
1

How the Departments S&T investment should be spent.
What future technologies should be developed and exploited
for military application? Characterize essential attributes of
the Departments S&T investment.

1
The complete terms of reference for the Defense Science Board Summer Study on Defense
Science and Technology can be found in Annex A. Annex B lists the members of the summer
study task force.
DSB Summer Study on

4
The level of investment in science and technology. How
much of the Departments budget should be invested in
science and technology endeavors, today and in the future?
How the military can realize the most value from this
investment. What changes can be made in the way the
Department manages and executes its S&T program to
improve the return on its S&T investment?
STUDY APPROACH _______________________________
Changes in the national security environment mean changes for the
science and technology program. To be successful, the Departments S&T
program must address:
New threats and multiple adversaries.
Emerging disruptive technologies that are driven
commercially and globally, not by DoD.
2

Increased speed with which knowledge spreads and
technology is applied.
Asymmetric costs of some weapon exchanges.
To assess the success with which the Departments S&T enterprise is
responding to these challenges, the task force pursued two separate but
necessarily related paths, as Figure 1-1 depicts: it examined the need for
new military capabilities and technological opportunities.
3

At the intersection of these two paths, the task force identified a set of
key transformational challenges for the DoD. Each of these challenges is
sufficiently important that it deserves a well-focused, aggressive effort to
bring the military capability to the warfighter.
For each of the four challenges, the task force examined supporting
science and technology programs and made recommendations. In some
cases the task force recommends augmentation of and/or better focus for
ongoing programs. Specific new initiatives were identified as pacesetters
within the focused programs. In addition, the task force examined the
Departments investment in basic research.

2
Disruptive technologies are those technologies that tend to change processes or approaches to
capability as opposed to bettering existing processes or approaches in an evolutionary way.
3
A separate panel of the Summer Study task force addressed each of these paths. The Military
Applications panel examined military capabilities; Chapter II contains the findings of their
effort. Chapter III presents the work of the Technology panel, which focused its efforts on
exploring technological opportunities.
Chapter I. Overview

5
Figure 1-1. Study Approach

Finally, the task force examined the institutions and processes that
underpin or interface with the S&T enterprise.
4
There have been many
studies and recommendations in these areas over the past decade which
have recognized serious problems. Rather than review or repeat the prior
recommendations, this study tried to identify and concentrate on a small
number of improvements that would yield the greatest impact. The two
areas believed to have the potential to transform the science and
technology process were:
Adoption of an integrated process of operational
experimentation, spiral development and transition of
technology to the users.
In addition, it became clear, as a result of this assessment, that there is
a lack of a customer for S&T in some critical areas, particularly joint
command and control; joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
(ISR); and biological warfare (BW) defense. As a result, there is an
absence of customer pull for new technology in these areas. That in turn
impedes both the supporting S&T program execution and the speed of
technology transition.

4
A third panel, Investment Strategies, examined the policies and processes that drive the S&T
enterprise. Their work is reported in Chapter IV.
S&T
Military Need for
New Capability
Technological
Opportunities
Customer
Systems,
e.g., Joint ISR
Focused Ongoing
S&T Programs
S&T Initiatives
Basic Research;
Identify & Exploit
Military Potential
Transformational
Challenges
Transformational
Challenges
DSB Summer Study on

6
TRANSFORMATIONAL CHALLENGES:
S&T INVESTMENT PRIORITIES
In deriving S&T investment priorities, the task force sought answers to
some fundamental questions from a broad audience in the national security
community. It sought to understand:
What most worries current Combatant Commanders?
What must the Services do well operationally?
Where are the consequences of operational failure
unacceptable?
What is necessary to enable future operational concepts?
What dangers do threats pose for operational capabilities?
What technological advancement will strongly influence
global military capabilities?
How will current and emerging technologies actually affect
warfare?
The responses to these questions were instructive, and discussion with
the Commandant Commanders was particularly illuminating. These
inputs helped the task force derive nine high-priority military needs:
(1) biological weapon defense, (2) location of difficult targets,
(3) timely and accurate decision making, (4) enablers of high-risk
operations, (5) missile defense, (6) affordable, precision munitions, (7)
enhanced human performance, (8) rapid deployment and employment, and
(9) global effects. Each of these needs is critical and recommendations for
related science and technology and acquisition programs for each one are
discussed in detail in Chapter II.
These military needs were then subjected to further tests to determine
which should be the highest priorities for defense S&T. This additional
filtering considered the following:
Are these vital military capabilities? The task force
determined that all of them are.
Is there a technological opportunity to advance that would
deliver enduring advantage, for a decade or more? In some
areas, such as global effects, a substantive technology
enabler was not yet evident.
Finally, is there a need for more focus or acceleration in
the S&T program? The task force found that ongoing
Chapter I. Overview

7
programs already provide emphasis in a number of areas
including missile defense, Future Combat System, rapid
decisive operations, affordable munitions, space, and high-
energy weapons.
In the end, four transformational challenges, shown in Figure 1-2,
emerged from this filter. These four challenges will provide real military
potential if given more focus and acceleration:
Defending against biological warfare.
Finding difficult targets.
Making timely, accurate decisions.
Enabling high-risk operations.
Figure 1-2. Four Transformational Challenges

Human
Performance
Massive
Multi-Player
Gaming
Micro -Sensor
Networks
Pathogen to
Hit
New S&T Projects
Unmanned
Systems
Decision
Tools;
Network S&T
ISR S&T
(sensors,
exploitation)
BW Defense
S&T
Focused Ongoing
S&T Programs
Human
Performance
Massive
Multi-
Gaming
Micro -Sensor
Networks
Pathogen to
Hit
New S&T Projects
Unmanned
Systems
Decision
Tools;
Network S&T
ISR S&T
(sensors,
exploitation)
BW Defense
S&T
Focused Ongoing
S&T Programs
Long Term Nano - Quantum
Research technology
Human
Performance
Massive
Multi-Player
Gaming
Micro -Sensor
Networks
Pathogen to
Hit
New S&T Projects
Unmanned
Systems
Decision
Tools;
Network S&T
ISR S&T
(sensors,
exploitation)
BW Defense
S&T
Focused Ongoing
S&T Programs
Human
Performance
Massive
Multi-
Gaming
Micro -Sensor
Networks
Pathogen to
Hit
New S&T Projects
Unmanned
Systems
Decision
Tools;
Network S&T
ISR S&T
(sensors,
exploitation)
BW Defense
S&T
Focused Ongoing
S&T Programs
Research technology
Research technology
Defending
Against
Biological
Warfare
Finding
Difficult
Targets
Making
Timely,
Accurate
Decisions
Enabling
High-Risk
Operations
DSB Summer Study on

8
These four transformational challenges are discussed below. For each
one, the task force identified an ongoing S&T effort that warrants
significant augmentation, acceleration, and increased focus. It also
identified a particularly high-payoff and timely new project within each.
In addition to these focused programs, the task force found that the
Department should continue its level of effort in basic research. This
program is particularly crucial to avoiding technological surprise.
Nanotechnology and quantum science are examples of such research.
These are areas that could, as technology matures, either provide
exceptional new capabilities or, if in the hands of adversaries, deny
important capabilities to the United States.
CHALLENGE #1:
DEFENDING AGAINST BIOLOGICAL WARFARE ____________
Biological agents present a new threat to the U.S. military, allies, and
homeland. The only effective strategy against this threat is to broadly
address all dimensions of defense from deterrence to therapeutics. The
topic of biological warfare defense has been addressed in three recent
Defense Science Board (DSB) studies, which concluded that:
5

The present U.S. defense effort will not effectively counter the
current threat.
This effort is hampered by an absence of a vision of what is
required and lacks leadership and coherent organization.
The task force believes that it is critical to develop a DoD-wide
strategy for biological defensea recommendation made by all three
recent DSB studies. That strategy still needs to be implemented. A DoD-
wide strategy should be supported by a comprehensive science and
technology program for BW defense. An S&T program should address
all facets of biological warfare defense: warning, detection and
characterization, passive protection, intelligence, incident response,
forensics, collective protection and decontamination, diagnostics, and
vaccines and therapeutics. Each of these areas needs serious and focused

5
The Defense Science Board 1999 Summer Study Task Force on 21
st
Century Defense
Technology Strategies, Volume I (Washington, DC: Office of the Under Secretary of Defense
for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics), 1999;Protecting the Homeland, Report of the
Defense Science Board Task Force on Defense Against Biological WeaponsLeveraging
Advances in Biotechnology and Medical Informatics to Improve Homeland Biodefense
Capabilities, 2000 Summer Study, Volume IV; and Report of the Defense Science Board/Threat
Reduction Advisory Committee Task Force on Biological Defense, (Washington, DC: Office of
the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics), June 2001.
Chapter I. Overview

9
S&T research. Even partial or incremental S&T results would collectively
enable an improved defense posture.
The Department is addressing a number of these areas, but the current
program is not coordinated in a way that will provide an effective,
integrated defense. Moreover, the current program needs an infusion of
resources: an increase from the current $250 million to at least $1
billion per year. Additional resources are likely to be required in the
longer term. With an aggressive effort, the Department can be successful
in addressing the challenge of biological defense.
Pathogen to Hit
Biological agents are terror weapons in part because the nation lacks
effective therapeutic responses. Today, it takes roughly 10 to 15 years to
develop a safe drug for a specific purpose.
The task force believes that it is possible for the United States to
develop a therapeutic response for bioagents. The process of finding an
effective drug to halt the damaging process that ensues when a pathogen
enters the body has two steps. The first step is moving from a pathogen to
a hit. The hit is a candidate drug that will intervene in the damaging
process that the pathogen triggers. There are two parts to finding a hit: (1)
analysis of the pathogen identifies (multiple) targets of intervention which
if successful will halt the destructive process; and (2) drug candidate
generation which produces candidate drugs that are optimized for their
effectiveness in making the desired intervention in the human body.
Modern genomics and proteomics provide new tools: rapid and high-
throughput empirical laboratory processes and computationally based drug
design. When it can be used, computational analysis is much faster than
laboratory experimentation. In either case, specific knowledge at the
molecular level leads to drugs that are more specific, and thus make
possible the desired intervention with fewer negative side effects or
consequences.
The second step in the process is to perform toxicity and safety
screening. The pathogen to hit process took five to six years a decade ago,
but now occurs in about half that time or less. In limited cases, modern
advances have created reasonable drug candidates in as little as nine
months. It appears that the same tools that can reduce the pathogen to hit
duration will be useful in shortening the toxicity and safety screening
process. Further, increased quality of hits can be expected to lead to better
performance in later screens.
DSB Summer Study on

10
The pharmaceutical industry drives this research. However, there is a
role for DoD that is not being addressed by others. Reference databases
for bioagent threats are needed to perform the computational pathogen to
hit step, and DoD can play a role in building these databases. The
Department should also leverage its computational expertise to accelerate
first-principles approaches and build a research and development (R&D)
bridge to the pharmaceutical industry, academia, and government
agencies.
The task force recommends the Department undertake an initiative
that focuses on further compressing the pathogen-to-hit process, funded
at $200 million per year for five years. In the near term, the initiative
would seek to compress the pathogen to hit process from years to months,
in the mid-term from months to weeks, and in the longer run to compress
the toxicity and safety screening processes by a comparable amount. A
collateral benefit of this research would be to lower the cost of developing
drugs that are relevant to the military, but that the drug industry is not
motivated to pursue. While it is but one of the steps required in
developing an integrated biological warfare defense, possession of a
process that can quickly develop an effective therapeutic response to
pathogens would itself be a deterrent against the use of biological
warfare agents.
CHALLENGE #2:
FINDING DIFFICULT TARGETS _________________________
Recent operational experiences indicate a need to improve the
militarys ability to find targets that are concealed by camouflage, foliage,
or structure, or that are underground; to identify moving targets, especially
in adverse weather; and to discriminate decoys from real targets. In the
Persian Gulf, for example, approximately 6,000 allied sorties were flown
against SCUD TELs, but none were actually found. In Kosovo, many
tank kills were strikes on decoys.
There are a variety of airborne sensors in existence with a range of
capabilities for remote sensing. The data from these sensors must be
brought together, correlated, and assessed to translate the data into
information. New capabilities to process enormous volumes of data are
thus required, as well as some limited creation of additional sensor
capabilities. The extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
from large, high-altitude platforms to micro-air-vehiclescan enhance
remote detection.
Chapter I. Overview

11
The United States needs a fully integrated, layered intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance capability. The task force believes that
with a more focused effort over the next decade progress in developing
such a system is possible. Funding should be increased by an additional
$200 million per year.
Microsensor Networks
Proliferated surface sensors can provide another tier of a layered
defense, complementing airborne sensors and UAVs. Technological
developments in microsensorsmaking them more capable, smaller, more
diverse, and lower in costas well as advances in adaptive networks
provide an opportunity to develop the surface-sensing tier. These
microsensors would be dispensed in great numbers in targeted areas, based
on cueing from longer-range assets. Local ground nodes with higher
power would interrogate the microsensors, use the Global Positioning
System (GPS) to locate them, and would communicate information back
to an airborne communication vehicle. These sensors would essentially
look up and around, and would have the potential to observe hidden
targets in close proximity.
The goal of a microsensor S&T program, with funding increasing to
$100 million per year, is to affordably increase the probability of
detection and correct identification of increasingly difficult targets
those that are movable, under foliage, in buildings, or underground. The
key to finding and identifying difficult targets is integrated operations
among all surveillance layers. The microsensors are one very important
component of that overall operational concept; they must be both effective
and individually inexpensive since proliferation in very large quantities
(such as tens of thousands) will be the key to their contribution.
CHALLENGE #3:
MAKING TIMELY, ACCURATE DECISIONS _________________
Today, military planning takes a long time. As a result, planning
occurs well before a mission and may result in stale plans that do not
reflect reality at the time of execution. Planning time needs to be reduced
from days to hours, so that operations can be executed at a speed
determined by the commander, not the supporting information system. A
commander must be able to turn within the decision time frame of an
adversary. The task force believes that a more focused, expanded
program can result in a much more effective integrated, automated
DSB Summer Study on

12
decision support system, capable of being used to synchronize both
individuals and groups in joint and combined operations.
The development of an integrated, automated decision support system
should be driven by demonstrations of its various elements, which will
include automated decision support services as well as self-configuring,
self-healing mobile networks. These component demonstrations should
culminate in integrated technology demonstrations that focus on system
survivability that is tolerant of degradation.
While the civilian sector leads in communications and network
research, its network requirements differ from those of the military. In
particular, much of the infrastructure of a civilian network is fixed; for the
military, these networks must typically be mobile. Thus, the Departments
research must focus on its unique requirements, while leveraging civilian
R&D. Science and technology funding to support these needs should
increase by $150 million per year.
Massive Multi-Player Gaming
A new cultural and technical phenomenonmassive multi-player
virtual environmentsoffers the potential for a new way to devise and to
explore military concepts. A virtual environment provides a platform in
which many participants can participate regardless of location. In
addition, it provides an environment that inexpensively supports free-form
experimentation. Such experimentation fosters the generation of more
options and may result in faster, or more innovative, concept development.
In civilian games there is an observed phenomenon called emergent
behaviorthat is, groups of individuals self-synchronize and devise group
strategies. As supported by information technology, massive multi-player
gaming is a new medium in which to explore concept formation; the
military should experiment with it.
An S&T initiative would leverage the civilian on-line entertainment
industry, in which the most rapid growth is in massive multi-player games.
The goal is to create a military toolkit with virtual environments that
support the involvement of active military in the field. The program
would support exploration in unrestricted play, identifying both creative
concepts and individuals. The DoD S&T challenge is to understand,
identify, and capture a useful record of emergent behavior in order to
discover new concepts that emerge in an environment in which hierarchy
does not dominate.
The task force advocates an experimental program in which the
Joint Warfare Center or EUCOM Warrior Preparation Center acts as
Chapter I. Overview

13
the concept-testing master overseeing experimental use of the toolkit.
To complement that activity, DARPA should explore innovative
relationships with the gaming community and sponsor research on
automatic detection and analysis of emergent behavior.
Within the first 18 months, the Department should experiment with
off-the-shelf game engines supporting about 100,000 players. Over a five-
year period, the program should build to a dedicated DoD concept
exploration system potentially involving up to a million players in a
variety of virtual environments.
6
The peacetime doctrine and concept
development process is currently centralized, hierarchical, and time-
insensitive. It involves very few individuals. Massive multi-player games
offer an alternative that should be explored to determine whether it
provides value.
CHALLENGE #4:
ENABLING HIGH-RISK OPERATIONS _____________________
The fourth transformational challenge is to enable high-risk
operations. The highest number of military casualties occurs in close
combat; 85 percent of U.S. casualties occur within infantry. Unmanned
systems offer the potential to effectively engage the adversary while
lessening friendly losses. Advances have been made in software agents
and robotic control technology, which can accelerate the development of
unmanned systems. The task force advocates a focused expansion of
existing S&T programs in unmanned systems, driven by demonstrations
that have specific operational goals.
The task force recommends two demonstrations. By 2006, there
should be a platoon-sized demonstration of an urban assault in a free-fire
zone. This demonstration would achieve an integration of combat effects
through a mix of manned and semi-autonomous systems. The second
demonstration, in the 2010 timeframe, would expand to a company-sized,
autonomous search and clearance of urban buildings. In this case,
unmanned systems would be expected to operate in a more challenging
environment where mission duration and mobility would be consistent
with operational tempo.

6
Potential players include active, reserve, and National Guard forces; development
organizations; industry; academia; and the test and evaluation community.
DSB Summer Study on

14
Human Performance
Demands on the warfighter are growing as forces operate with an
increased operational tempo, using increasingly sophisticated systems.
Improving human performance is one way to advance warfighting
capabilities. Medical science has myriad techniques to restore disabled
functionalitytechniques that can also be applied to enhance normal
functionality. Examples include increasing strength, memory, or sensory
perception; decreasing requirements for sleep and food; and altering
perceptions of pain. New opportunities in cognitive psychology, cell
signaling and regulation, advanced therapies, sensors, implants, artificial
organs, and drugs can be tapped.
For example, profilinglong used for pilots and special operations
officerscan be extended to identify superior warfighters using genetic
screening factors for cognitive abilities, reflexes, cardiac capability, and
strength. Advances in medical technology could help with prevention,
treatment, and careboosting immunity, accelerating natural healing
responses, or stabilizing injuries. Advances in understanding of endurance
and physical performance can result in training benefits. Funding of $30
million per year is recommended to begin a program focusing on human
performance with well-chosen, very specific goals.
LONG-TERM RESEARCH _________________________
The science and technology program must include an element of long-
term research in those areas that have the most potential for military
application. It is critical that the DoD explore emerging technology, with a
clear focus on potential future military capability. DoD-sponsored
research in high-risk areas is also necessary to prevent technological
surprise. The task force highlights just two key areas to illustrate research
that might enable dramatically new military capability: nanotechnology
and quantum information technology.
Nanotechology
It is now possible, in the laboratory, to design and manufacture at the
atomic scale. For example, nanoscale electronics have been demonstrated
that allow 16-bit molecular memory at 10 times the density of silicon
CMOS. As nanotechnology matures, the potential for military application
is great. It may be possible to design materials with the weight of plastic
and strength of steel for ultra-lightweight combat vehicles. Pipes, hose
and aircraft skin materials may be made ultra-durable and self-repairing.
Chapter I. Overview

15
The Department of Defense is already part of a multi-government
agency initiative in this area, with a total investment that is in excess of a
half a billion dollars per year and growing. DoD should focus on the
fundamental research questions most related to the potential for new
military capability and not likely to be adequately addressed with high
priority elsewhere. Such questions include precise control of the size,
separation, and placement of nanoscale components; connections between
nano and macroscales for high-strength materials and electronics;
fabrication of polymer nanocomposites; molecular recognition and signal
transduction in nanoscale biomolecular systems; and deformation, fatigue
and fracture of nanostructures. To address these questions, the task force
believes that an additional investment of $100 million per year is
warranted.
Quantum Information Technology
Control and detection of electron spin creates the potential for
quantum computing and communication. Theory predicts that a quantum
computer can factor large numbers quickly, and thus break todays
encryption schemes. But it also offers the potential for unbreachable
command and control, clock synchronization, and robust GPS. The theory
for quantum computation is not yet well understood.
Quantum communication has been demonstrated in the laboratory and
has potential for revolutionary capability. While practical realization of
these capabilities is still a long way off, the United States cannot afford to
have others get there first, and the United States does not currently lead in
quantum research. DoD needs to invest sufficiently to stay in the game.
The task force recommends that the Department increase its investment by
$75 million per year.
S&T INVESTMENT
STRATEGY
The task force believes that the four transformational challenges
described above are appropriate investment priorities for the Department.
The new initiatives identified, together with ongoing initiatives and others
that will be developed, can offer a comprehensive program to address
these challenges. Figure 1-3 summarizes the recommended investment in
each of the areas discussed above and also shows an estimate of current
DSB Summer Study on

16
investment in that area. To be effective these programs need to be
supported by increased investment and more focused management.
S&T INVESTMENT:
RECOMMENDATION #1 _______________________________
The new resources required to fund the S&T initiatives recommended
in the previous sectionincreases in ongoing S&T programs, new S&T
projects, and long-term researchshould eventually reach a total of about
$1.8 billion annually. The task force believes that it is possible to fund
these initiatives by reprioritizing 15 to 20 percent of the investments
within the current $9 billion S&T budget over the next two to three
years.
Figure 1-3. S&T Investment
Human
Performance
Massive
Multi-Player
Gaming
Micro-Sensor
Networks
Pathogen to
Hit
New S&T Projects
Unmanned
Systems
Decision
Tools
Network S&T
ISR S&T
(sensors,
exploitation)
BW Defense
S&T
Focused Ongoing
S&T Programs
Enabling
High Risk
Operations
Human
Performance
Massive
Multi-
Gaming
Micro-Sensor
Networks
Pathogen to
Hit
New S&T Projects
Unmanned
Systems
Decision
Tools
Network S&T
ISR S&T
(sensors,
exploitation)
BW Defense
S&T
Focused Ongoing
S&T Programs
Finding
Difficult
Targets
Quantum
Nano-
technology
Long Term
Research
Current Funding (est)
~ $1.7B
Increased Funding
~$1.8B
$250+$750M
$0 +$200M $50 +$100M $0 +$20M $150 +$30M
$50+$150M $250+$150M $650+$200M
$150
+$100M
$100
+$75M
Defending
Against
Biological
Warfare
Making
Timely,
Accurate
Decisions

Reprioritizing the current program should be the primary path to
funding S&T for the transformational challenges described in the previous
section. Reprioritization would target funding cuts at programs with lower
output potential, making it possible to increase investment in other areas
without losing any significant output from the S&T system. Termination
of programs or funding reductions should be considered when:
Chapter I. Overview

17
Technology is clearly lagging behind that in the commercial
world.
DoD can rely on commercial technology and broadly
understands it.
Effort is sub-critical in size.
Output is likely to have limited application.
Unproductively redundant efforts are ongoing in multiple
places.
Successful conclusion will not make a material difference.
DoD can otherwise anticipate low value in payoff.
In addition, the task force recommends that most of the funding for
advanced concept technology demonstration (ACTDs), currently about
$500 million/year, be funded from the 6.4 account but executed by S&T
participants; this recommendation is consistent with the purposes and
objectives of ACTDs.

Recommendation #1
S&T Investment

Achieve and sustain investment in S&T of 3% (of the top
line DoD budget).

The Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,
Technology & Logistics [USD (AT&L)] should
Direct reprioritization of S&T to fully fund the S&T
initiatives outlined, within the S&T budget.
Start now and complete within 9 months.
Provide $500 million of 6.4A funds to move current
ACTDs from 6.3 and use current 6.3 funds as part of
funding of new initiatives.

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18
MANAGING S&T INITIATIVES:
RECOMMENDATION #2 _______________________________
Management of the recommended S&T initiatives should take
different forms for different projects, as illustrated by the shaded gray
areas in Figure 1-4.
The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) should be assigned
responsibility for managing a focused biological warfare defense program.
The other ongoing S&T programsISR, decision tools and networks, and
unmanned systemsneed a focused management approach that draws
together the spectrum of technologies being pursued in many
organizations and provides coherence in their execution. A single focal
point within the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) to
manage each of these efforts is recommended.
Figure 1-4. Management Approach

It is essential that a program manager have true control of the funds in
a given area, and that is not the case today within the Office of the
Secretary of Defense. Twenty years ago, the DDR&E used an authority
called Format I to exercise that control, but its use has since been
discontinued. The Format I was essentially a notification to the

Massive
Multi -
player
Gaming
Micro-
Sensor
Networks
Pathogen
to Hit
New S&T
Projects
Unmanned
Systems
Decision
Tools
Network
S&T
ISR S&T
(sensors ,
exploitation)
BW
Defense
S&T
Focused
Ongoing S&T
Programs

Quantum Nanotechnology
Long Term
Research
DTRA focal point
Increase $750M/yr
Base $250M/yr
Single Focal Point in DDR&E for each.
Reinstate and use Format - I.
Strong customer voice and pull ($).
Increase $500M/yr
Base $950M/yr
DARPA: Manage as
Focused Projects
Increase $350M/yr
Base $200M/yr
Scattered but
coordinated efforts.
Increase $175M/yr
Base 250M/yr
Total:
Increase ~$1.8B on
Base of ~$1.7B
Human
Performance
Defending
Against
Biological
Warfare
Finding
Difficult
Targets
Making
Timely,
Accurate
Decisions
Enabling
High Risk
Operations
Chapter I. Overview

19
Comptroller that appropriated funds should not be released to a Service or
agency until and unless the DDR&E approved the program. Without this
or some equivalent teeth, the DDR&E does not have the authority to
effectively manage diverse efforts.
The project-oriented approach of the Defense Advanced Research
Project Agency (DARPA) is the appropriate way to execute the new S&T
projects, to be funded at $350 million per year above the current $200
million annual investment. Finally, the long-term research should be
executed, not as a focused program, but by a broad range of institutions,
loosely coordinated in their efforts, as is the case today.

Recommendation #2
Managing S&T Initiatives

Establish single focal point for biological warfare
defense S&T.
Reinstitute the Format-I to provide muscle for the
programs

PROCESS IMPROVEMENTS
IN THE S&T ENTERPRISE
There is an imperative related to each of the transformational
challenges: the need to capture and exploit technological advances that are
progressing largely in the commercial worldand that are progressing at
great speed. In some cases, such as for the biological sciences, these are
commercial communities with which the Department of Defense has few
ties or long-term relationships. Technology is pushing the Department to
think differently, to use information and products in new and different
ways, to explore ideas that may challenge traditional concepts.
The Departments science and technology enterprise must become
more agile, more flexible, and more adaptive to be effective in this
challenging environment. It must establish new ties with new
communities. And most importantly, it must take a fresh approach to
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technology transition to be more responsive to the rapid pace of change
elsewhere in the world.
Over the last decade, the Defense Science Board alone has conducted
nearly three-dozen studies on improving processes in the S&T enterprise.
Topics have included strategies related to the technology base, the DoD
laboratories, technology transition, commercial industry participation,
access to commercial technology, ACTDs, and acquisition and
procurement. Together these reports put forward a rich set of
recommendations, most of which are still relevant today. What is needed
now is implementation.
Drawn from this body of work, this task force has identified two
areas that have the potential to transform the entire S&T, acquisition,
and requirements process. They are
Adopting an integrated process of operational
experimentation, spiral development, and transition of
technology to users.
In addition, the task force believes it is important to comment on and
make suggestions regarding one long-standing and much-studied problem:
rejuvenation of the DoD laboratories.
The following sections summarize the task force views and
recommendations on each of these issues. Addressing them can
significantly improve the effectiveness of the DoD S&T investment.
ACCESS TO COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGY:
RECOMMENDATION #3 _______________________________
The Department of Defense no longer leads the development of
technology in many important areas, such as information technology,
biology, and microelectronics. Nonetheless, these commercial
technologies are essential in enabling the nations future military
superiority. Because of its complex system of procurement regulations
and processessuch as accounting and information system
requirementsthe Department continues to deny itself access to many
industries.
To improve access to commercial industry and ensure continued
exploitation of commercially developed technology, the task force
recommends a three-pronged approach. First, DoD must provide the
incentives within the Department to turn to commercial products,
Chapter I. Overview

21
practices, and processes as the norm rather than the exception. To have
real impact these incentives should focus on the program managers, who
work directly with commercial industry. Second, the Department must
reduce the barriers, identified in many past studies, which inhibit
commercial firms from working with DoD contractors and with the DoD
directly.
Finally, the Department must foster relationships and create new
incentives with critical technology sectors to motivate them to apply their
knowledge and people to critical national security challenges. In
particular, DoD must find ways to work more closely with the
biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries, research institutes, and other
government agencies engaged in biological research. The Department
needs to take advantage of the current Secretarys understanding of the
pharmaceutical industry and the task force believes the Secretary must
take the lead. In addition, the Secretary needs to forge a relationship with
the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS). The National
Institutes of Health and Center for Disease Control, both agencies of the
Department of Health and Human Services, and DoD should begin to
work together more closely, particularly in addressing elements of
biological warfare defense.

Recommendation #3
Access to Commercial Industry

Mandate commercial practices, tools, techniques,
establishing commercial technology as the norm; require
justification for DoD-specific technology.
Develop and implement acquisition processes that
remove barriers and create incentives for commercial
corporations to support DoD.

Personally engage with the biotech and pharmaceutical
industries to build relationships with DoD and create
effective partnerships.
Forge a close relationship with the Secretary of HHS.

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AN INTEGRATED PROCESS ____________________________
Potential adversaries have increasing access to the most advanced
technologies from global and commercial sources in much the same
timeframe, as does the Department of Defense. The Department must
dramatically improve its S&T and acquisition processes or risk being out-
paced by its adversarieswhich at its extreme could result in the United
States facing opponents with more advanced capabilities in critical areas.
The current technology transition process involves four separate and
distinct communities: science and technology, acquisition, test, and user.
Each of these communities has different people, different mindsets, and
are funded from different program elements. Real cooperation is the
exception rather than the rule. More the norm is a process best
characterized as over the transom rather than one of spiral development
and collaboration, as discussed below.
Within this environment, ACTDs provide some opportunity for the
S&T and user communities to work together. But there is weak
involvement by the acquisition and test communities, and programs tend
to go directly from an ACTD into the System Design and Development
acquisition phase. In some cases more accelerated acquisition would be at
least as effective and yet more cost-effective. Operational
experimentation and spiral development, properly executed, force a more
integrated approach and provide the basis for an improved technology
transition process.
Operational Experimentation: Recommendation #4
Operational experimentation addresses all three elements of the
military transformation processchanges in organization of forces,
changes in doctrine and tactics, and changes in technology.
Experimentation is quite different from exercises, training, and
demonstrations. Experiments are typically small, with only tens to
hundreds of participants. They are supported by extensive use of simulated
capabilities and are conducted in an environment that encourages risk
taking and considers learning to be the definition of success. The value of
experimentation is to pursue many options and ideas and to provide a
forum for collaboration between the operational warfighter and
technologists.
The Department needs to form experimental units in each of the
Services and at the joint level. These units should consist of dedicated
command staffs and equivalent dedicated operational red teams or
opposing forces. Other forces would be assigned to these units,
Chapter I. Overview

23
appropriate to each series of experiments. The technology of massive
multi-player environments, discussed previously, could play a significant
role in this process.
Spiral Development
Spiral development is an iterative process that links users to
developers through an approach that is common commercial practice for
continuous development and deployment of both software and hardware.
The concept is to explore many technology options via experiments and
ACTDs. Those that demonstrate promise are rapidly deployed to the field
in limited quantities as Block 1 systems. Inherent in the process is that
the systems are likely to contain some weaknesses in the Block 1
deployment, but increasing capabilities will be fielded in subsequent
blocks through a continuous development process.
The advantages of spiral development are many: more rapid
deployment of advanced systems, lower cost development at lower risk,
and a larger number of generated and demonstrated technology options.
Spiral development has been institutionalized in directives by the Under
Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics and the
Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, but it is a process that has yet to gain
the kind of widespread use that the task force encourages.

Recommendation #4
Operational Experimentation

The CJCS should
Form experimental units in each Service and Joint
Forces Command.
Form corresponding, dedicated operational red teams.
Assign senior points of responsibility for fostering
operational innovation and full use of experimentation.
Suggest Vice Chiefs and J-8 with accountable
responsibility

Provide funds for Joint and multi-Service
experimentation.
Fund and support increased use of ACTDs.

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A New Technology Transition Process: Recommendation #5
The science and technology and acquisition processes need to be
considered as a single enterprise not as individual entities that handoff a
product from one to the other. Within this enterprise, the purpose of the
science and technology community is to generate options and
opportunities for the warfighter. These options are tested in operational
experiments where their military value and usefulness can be assessed.
Some experiments will transition to ACTD-like activities and others will
spawn acquisition programs directly. The current process is illustrated in
Figure 1-5, where the entries in bold are occasionally included but more
often are not. In addition, while the USD (AT&L) has strongly
encouraged shortening the time between Milestone A and Milestone C
from five to seven years, this is persuasion rather than law.
Figure 1-5. Current Technology Transition Process

The task force believes that significant changes are needed to more
closely integrate operational experimentation, spiral development, and
technology transition. These changes will create technology pull for the
S&T base and provide a path for technology to reach the user.
First, S&T should be driven by a 5-year acquisition cycle. The five-to-
seven-year acquisition process suggested by the USD (AT&L) should be
mandated as a five-year rule. The shorter timeframe will alter the
Red
Thinking
S&T
Operational
Experiments
ACTD-like
activities
Acquisition
Programs
Rapid Acquisition
Funding
S&T
6.4a
6.4a
Block 1
Block 2
Block 3
Field in
Spiral
Development
Very
Limited
Red
Thinking
S&T
Operational
Experiments
ACTD-like
activities
Acquisition
Programs
Rapid Acquisition
Funding
S&T
6.4a
6.4a
Block 1
Block 2
Block 3
Field in
Spiral
Development
Very
Limited
Very
Limited
Chapter I. Overview

25
dynamics of the whole process and create a sense of urgency in the entire
enterprise. Today the S&T community has limited coupling to the
warfighter and acquisition communities, and what does exist is relatively
artificial. So a pull for S&T from these communities is critical to a
more dynamic and iterative processes.
Another critical element is red teaming throughout the processusing
a smart adversary to challenge all concepts. Within the process, rapid
spiral development and operational experimentation are inseparable. The
task force also believes that ACTDs needs to be expanded as a customer
for S&T development and a vehicle for promoting early involvement of
the users.
This new technology transition process, illustrated in Figure 1-6, will
outpace old habits. In particular, the current inherent delay in transition of
two and one-half years that results from the Planning Programming and
Budgeting System (PPBS) cannot be tolerated. The Department must
work with Congress to provide flexible funding to proceed immediately to
acquisition for promising programs. Such an initiative would be similar to
the Rapid Acquisition Program (RAP) authority granted to the Army.
Figure 1-6. A New Technology Transition Process

1
Red Thinking
&
Red Teams
S&T
flashes of insight)
ACTD-like
activities
(Augment)
Limited Buys
S&T
6.4a
6.4a
MS-A
MS-C
MS-B
5
yrs
Block 1
Block 2
Block 3
Field in
Spiral
Development
Whats New
acquisition cycle
Pulls S&T
Dynamic & iterative
Red teaming & action
Rapid spiral
development
More experiments
bringing players
together
Expanded ACTDs as
the S&T customer
Blue
Thinking &
Operations
Rapid Acquisition
Funding
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The newly created Force Transformation Office can play an important
role in implementing a more integrated technology transition process. The
task force has identified three specific areas. First, the transformation
office can be the advocate to foster real experimentation. It can be a focal
point for coupling S&T products to the warfighters, identifying and
supporting worthy experimentation candidates, and providing focus for
joint and multi-Service experimentation in close cooperation with Joint
Forces Command (JFCOM). This office could also take responsibility for
ACTDs and in doing so be well positioned to exploit potential synergies
between experiments and ACTDs. Finally, the office needs to have
available, rapid acquisition resources to pull forward promising results
from experiments and ACTDs.
Funding required for this process is modest. The task force
recommends new 6.4A funding for experimentation and transition
activities, growing over several years to $1.4 billion. This is the total
budgetary increase that applies to implementation of all process
recommendations in this report. This amount would include $200
million per year to sponsor operational experimentation, supplementing
Service experimentation funds with an emphasis on joint efforts.
Resources for ACTDs need to grow to $1 billion per year, double current
funding. The resources for ACTDs would include new 6.4A funds to
replace current 6.3 ACTD funding, previously discussed, with
approximately $250 million of the $1 billion in OSD and the remainder in
the Services.
Finally, the task force recommends $200 million in funding to bridge
the PPBS gap for rapid transition of successful ACTDs and experiments;
this investment would supplement the current $150 million of RAP.
The task force believes that these resources can be generated from
recent and proposed changes in the acquisition cycle and that they will
lead to faster development at lower risk. The additional funds
recommended represent less than 5 percent of the Departments current
total development funds.
Technology is changing rapidly and requires a more flexible, and
responsive process of transition to the user. The task force believes that
the changes described will have the needed results.
Chapter I. Overview

27

Recommendation #5
New Transition/Acquisition Process

Implement new process outlined for innovative concept
development, red teaming, and expansion of ACTDs.
Mandate 5-year acquisition cycle.
Give Director of Transformation responsibility for joint
operational experimentation, ACTDs, and transition
Provide 6.4A funds to be the catalyst of change.
New funds growing to ~$1.4 billion per year.
Approximately $650 million under direct control of
Director of Transformation and balance in ACTDs
under Services.

Responsibility for Joint Research and Development:
Recommendation #6
A more integrated technology transition and acquisition process is
critical and will lead to major improvement in rapidly fielding advanced
systems. But there is a special case in the technology transition area that
requires further action: the lack of a joint development organization for
critical joint warfighting capabilities. Three areas where the problem has
become acute are joint command and control; joint intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance; and biological warfare defense.
Without a joint development organization, there is no customer pull
and there is no integrated approach to systems or solutions. And perhaps
most important, there is no support to the warfighters in their primary area
of concerncommand, control, communications, and computers and
intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR). While this
problem has been long recognized, little progress has been made.
The task forces recommendation for joint C4ISR is to assign
responsibility for research and development to Joint Forces Command.
JFCOM would be the focal point for developing and testing prototypes
using spiral development. It would work with the regional Combatant
Commanders to transition and tailor capabilities to each. To facilitate this
task, JFCOM needs technical, system engineering, and acquisition
capabilities and partners. Partnership with DARPA can facilitate a flow of
new technology. A systems engineering capability at JFCOM would
provide configuration control and other system engineering functions. A
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Joint Program Office needs to be created to acquire and deploy systems.
And partnership with a Federally Funded Research and Development
Center could provide technical support. This approach is consistent with
recommendations in prior DSB studies and by the Transformation Task
Force established by Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld.
Similarly, and as discussed previously, DTRA should be the single
point responsible for biological warfare defense R&D and acquisition.
DTRA would operate in a mode similar to that of DARPA, drawing on
talent in the Services, universities and industry. DARPA should continue
to operate with the freedom to pursue high-risk, high-payoff projects as
DARPA management sees fit. DARPA efforts would not be under the
centralized DTRA control but obviously must be coordinated with DTRA
which will continue to play an important role in achieving overall
capabilities for biological warfare defense.

Recommendation #6
Responsibility for Joint R&D

Establish organizations and activities responsible for
joint R&D and acquisition in C4ISR.
JFCOM and a Joint Program Office (co-located)
Adequate technical and acquisition support
Establish single point responsibility for biological warfare
defense R&D and acquisition at DTRA.

Rejuvenating the DoD Laboratories: Recommendation #7
Research and operation in the 84 DoD laboratories consumes about
$2.5 billion dollars a year of the Departments S&T budget, approximately
28% of the total. The laboratories also manage another equivalent amount
of DoD S&T. So, in total, the laboratories expend about 56 percent of the
total S&T budget. In addition, they manage another $11 to 12 billion of
non-S&T money. Some 25,000 personnel work in the laboratory system,
including the Research, Development and Engineering Centers. It is clear
that the DoD laboratories are an important part of the Departments S&T
enterprise and require special attention.
Numerous prior studies have looked at the DoD laboratory system,
identifying serious problems. Some of the most pervasive and debilitating
problems include an inability to attract and retain quality people, an aging
workforce fast approaching retirement, and personnel systems that place
Chapter I. Overview

29
many restrictions on dealing with poor performers. However, few of these
studies have focused on the diverse nature of the laboratory functions as a
basis for rejuvenating the laboratory system. Much of the activity
conducted in the labs, and the majority of funds expended in or flowing
through the labs, is not related to S&T. The labs are involved in
engineering development, testing, in-service support and engineering, and
acquisition support.
The task force believes that the Department should conduct an in-
depth review of each of the DoD laboratories to review its activities,
understand its functions, and understand its workforce. With this
information, the laboratory structure can be significantly reshaped.
Personnel, activities and facilities involved in acquisition can be
transferred into acquisition organizations. Laboratories with a strong S&T
or technology orientation, with significant in-house research, should be
moved to university management to relieve them from the restrictions of
the civil service personnel system. Other labs might be considered for
privatization, consolidation, or closure. This review should begin
immediately and conclude in nine months with specific recommendations
for each laboratory. Implementation should conclude by 2005.
Whether or not the Department chooses to undertake such a review,
the task force believes the recommendations of the most recent study of
the laboratories by the Defense Science Board, Efficient Utilization of
Defense Laboratories, should be implemented.
7
This study reviews and
consolidates recommendations of many prior studies and focuses on
personnel and quality improvements. Implementing its recommendations
is essential to improving the laboratory system.

7
Report of the Defense Science Board on Efficient Utilization of Defense Laboratories
(Washington, DC: Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology),
October 2000.
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Recommendation #7
DoD Laboratories

The USD (AT&L), with direction of the Secretary of
Defense, should instruct the DDR&E to
Review each laboratory in detail and determine
individual courses of action, to include the following:
Administrative personnel transfers.
University management.
Privatization, consolidation, or closure.
Complete review and begin taking action within 9
months with end goal of 2005.
In any case, especially for those likely to remain status
quo, implement recommendations of most recent DSB
study.
Efficient Utilization of Defense Laboratories, October
2000.
Focus on personnel and quality improvements.

FINAL THOUGHTS
Two challenges will fundamentally change the nature of the S&T
enterprise and military capability:
Rapid technology transition: time matters.
Transformation to new ways of fighting.
doctrine. To accomplish both transition and transformation the
Department must change its S&T enterprise through operational
experimentation, rapid spiral development, and evolutionary acquisition.
Only then will the Department be able to fully realize the benefits of the
S&T investments described in this report.
In summary, the recommendations of the task force focus on
transforming the Departments S&T enterprise. The primary recommen-
dations have been discussed in this chapter; supporting recommendations
are contained in the remainder of this report. The recommendations fall in
seven areas:
Chapter I. Overview

31
1. Invest in new S&T initiatives in support of four
transformational challenges: defending against biological
warfare, finding difficult targets, making timely, accurate
decisions, and enabling high-risk operations. Expand and
provide more focused management for ongoing related S&T
programs.
2. Maintain the level of S&T investment at 3 percent of the
overall DoD budget as currently planned by the Department.
Provide additional funds for new S&T priorities by
reprioritizing current programs and shifting funds for ACTDs
to the 6.4A account.
3. Exploit commercial technology through expanded use of
commercial products and processes; elimination of barriers;
and efforts to forge relationships with commercial industry.
4. Foster operational experimentation, as an integral element of
a new S&T enterprise, through assigned experimental units and
sustained senior attention.
5. Establish a new technology transition process by vesting
responsibility for joint operational experimentation, ACTDs,
and technology transition with the Director of Transformation.
6. Accelerate the transition process for joint R&D by
establishing points of responsibility in joint C4ISR and
7. Restructure the DoD laboratories and rebuild the scientific
and engineering workforce based on a major review of the
function and workforce in each laboratory.
Funding for the full implementation of all recommendations of this
report is modest. Expanding existing programs and conducting new S&T
initiatives to support transformational challenges should eventually require
additional investment of $1.8 billion annually. These funds should be
found by reprioritizing within the S&T program. Funding for operational
experimentation and technology transition should grow to $1.4 billion per
year over the span of several years. This amount represents less than 5
percent of the total DoD development funding.
The task force believes that implementation of these recommendations
will provide an enormous improvement in the focus and effectiveness of
the defense S&T enterprise. The task force believes that that this report
identifies those changes that offer the greatest beneficial impact today.
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___________________________________ CHAPTER II
MILITARY
APPLICATIONS

Chapter II.
____________________________________________________ Military Applications

35
American warfighting doctrine emphasizes the employment of
technology and firepower to achieve decisive battlefield victory while, at
the same time, minimizing casualties and collateral damage. This
approach has long driven the Departments science and technology
community to seek the most advanced weapons and systems
technologieswith great success. The Cold War was won by superior
technology and ready forces developed and deployed over a fifty-year
period. Since 1990, new operational commitments have created a new set
of technology demands to enable the conduct of effective combat
operations in all terrain and climatic conditions, against the full spectrum
of modern threats.
These new demands on the S&T enterprise are explored in this
chapter. First the chapter examines the many factors that influence
military needs. Based on this assessment, nine high-priority military
needs are identified and described, focusing on the science and technology
efforts that will be required to attain new capabilities. Among these nine
are the four transformational challenges described in the previous chapter.
Finally, the chapter addresses the challenge of improving the interface
between the science and technology and operational communities. It
closes with conclusions and recommendations related to these topics.
8

ANALYTIC APPROACH
The analysis in this chapter is based on a wide range of inputs from
across the national security community. Two days of interviews were
conducted with the combatant commanders (or their immediate
subordinates) and selected senior operational commanders, based on a
detailed questionnaire used to stimulate discussion and interaction. These
discussions addressed operational deficiencies along with specific
technical solutions that might be exploredall with an emphasis on
operational realism.
Views were solicited from a wide range of administration officials
including the military services, Joint Staff, and Office of the Secretary of
Defense to gain insight into the Departments concepts and plans for
future forces. Because the Secretary of Defense Strategic Reviews and the

8
This chapter reflects the work of and was prepared by the Military Applications Panel of the
2001 DSB Summer Study task force. The panel members consisted of a mix of military experts
with Joint and Service experience at senior levels as well as technical experts with experience in
defense research and development. The panel membership, along with the government advisors
and staff who contributed to this effort, is contained in Annex B.
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Quadrennial Defense Review were in progress during the course of this
study, special attention was given to the views being considered in those
activities.
Meetings were also held with a number of independent defense experts
and theoretical analysts deeply involved in studying the current trends in
military affairs. In addition, a historical review provided insight into
periods of significant organizational and operational change within the
military as well as periods of significant technological advancement in
warfare.
Finally, to ensure full understanding of the operational implications of
the most advanced technology concepts currently in early development, a
review was conducted of several programs with the potential to have
profound impact on military operations. These programs include the
Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle, the Future Combat System, and the DoD
robotics program.
IDENTIFYING
MILITARY NEEDS
National security policy drives military posture. The operational
priorities that emerge in turn drive the S&T investments needed to
maintain the superior technological edge held by the United States across
a wide span of military missions. These missions include (1) strategic
deterrence and missile defense adequate to support a nuclear deterrence
policy and protect the nation from limited attack; (2) power projection to
support U.S. foreign policy; (3) special operations, peacekeeping, and
counter-terrorism; and (4) assured access to and use of space and denial of
use to adversaries.
This traditional and broad view of military missions is by itself
inadequate to determine military needs. The task force tried to reach a
deeper understanding of the operational basis for science and technology
investment decisions. Thus, in deriving priorities for military needs, the
task force sought to understand the following seven factors:
What most worries current combatant commanders?
What must the Services do well operationally?
Where are the consequences of operational failure
unacceptable?
Chapter II.

37
What is necessary to enable future operational concepts?
What dangers do adversary threats pose for operational
capabilities?
What technological advancements will strongly influence
global military capabilities?
How will current and emerging technologies actually affect
warfare?
These factors need to be considered in formulating a sound set of
military needs. Synthesizing the answers to these questions provides the
basis for S&T investment priorities.
FACTOR 1: WHAT MOST WORRIES
CURRENT COMBATANT COMMANDERS? __________________
The concerns of the combatant commanders provide insight into
specific details of essential military missions and infuse operational
realism into the task forces considerations. The joint field commanders
are on the front line, poised and prepared with ready forces to engage
when directed. They have responsibility for security, planning, and force
readiness. They constantly monitor intelligence information describing
risks to U.S. interests around the globe. These and other characteristics
make the combatant Commanders credible speakers regarding current and
future U.S. force strengths and vulnerabilities.
The most significant concerns expressed by the nine senior
representatives of the combatant commanders interviewed were:
9

Joint Command C4ISR. (9 of 9)
Prompt and accurate target detection. (8 of 9)
Integrated remote sensing. (7 of 9)
Platform survivability. (7 of 9)
Assured ability to deploy forces. (Continental United States
only; 2 of 2)
The nine representatives of the combatant commanders unanimously
agreed that Joint Command C4ISR is a critical concern; there is a need for
integrated communications and sensors that are secure, assured,

9
This list summarizes the areas of concern as expressed by the nine combatant commanders (or
their representatives) interviewed. Annex D contains the questionnaire provided in advance of
the interviews.
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connected, deployable, exercised, and ready for employment. The need to
find, identify, and track difficult targetsboth fixed and mobilein all
weather conditions was a near universal concern. Consistent with this
need was the desire for integrated remote sensing to support targeting and
situational awareness of the battlefield, whether on the ground, in air, on
or under the sea, or in space.
Equally important is the need for platform survivability. The specific
nature of this concern depended on the specific responsibilities of the
Commanders, but was of interest across the board. Concerns over threats
to survivability included counter-measures of various types such as
electronic warfare that could defeat U.S. warfighting capabilities;
frequency interference; network attack; and the ability of adversaries to
detect some platforms, making them vulnerable to active defenses.
Finally, the two combatant commanders in the Continental United States
(CONUS) expressed concern about the impact of certain threats
including terrorism and the use of biological weaponson the ability of
U.S. forces to mobilize and deploy to engagement locations.
FACTOR 2: WHAT THE MILITARY
MUST DO WELL OPERATIONALLY______________________
U.S. forces will have to continue to perform certain operational
missions, now and into the foreseeable future. These missions include:
Achieving and maintaining air-superiority over friendly
and hostile airspace. Air superiority is paramount for U.S.
conventional forces. The United States has not fought
without air superiority for several decades, and is unlikely
to do so on any significant operational scale. Without air
superiority, the capability to deploy, support, and sustain
U.S. forces is compromised.
Controlling sea lines of communication. The military
cannot move and sustain sufficient force by air alone, so
the ability to move and supply by sea is essential. Recent
operations in the Persian Gulf, off the coast of Africa, and
in the Balkans all relied on access to sea-lanes of
communication.
Conducting effective strike operations. American
warfighting operations depend heavily on the use of air-
delivered strikes. When effective, it is a preferred mode of
operations. When air power alone is not enough to achieve
an objective, it is used extensively as a precursor to ground
Chapter II.

39
maneuver and in conjunction with ground operations.
Because air campaigns can extend for weeks or even
months, the rate of loss of aircraft must be kept small
(under one percent a day for a protracted campaign).
Deploying and supporting ground forces for a variety of
operations. The United States must be able to move and
support ground forces for missions ranging from forced
entry and protracted combat operations to peacekeeping
and humanitarian assistance. The ability to arrive in a
theater of operations quickly and set the conditions of the
battlefield requires forces be fully trained and readily
deployable. While the acceptable time frame can be
debated, rapid deployment is essential.
Operating in a joint and combined force with political
constraints. U.S. forces will almost always operate in a
joint and combined context with allies and partners. Most
modern operationssuch as the Gulf War and the
campaign against Yugoslaviawere conducted with
political constraints that influenced the scope of the
operation and the acceptable levels of violence or collateral
damage. These constraints can be onerous to operators but
will continue to exist as long as U.S. forces remain an arm
of American foreign policy.
Constraining collateral damage to acceptable levels.
Across the operational mission spectrum, from long-range
interdiction bombing operations to peacekeeping and
peace-enforcement missions, U.S. forces will continue to
be politically constrained by limitations on collateral
damagealthough some level of collateral damage will
always be unavoidable.
Avoiding large-scale and protracted casualties. U.S.
commanders will also be obliged to minimize risk and
harm to U.S. forces. In situations where vital interests are
at stake or the nation is in direct risk, the tolerance for
casualties will prove higher than when the missions
importance is less clear, as in the Somalia experience. The
Gulf War created the myth that large-scale conflicts can be
fought with minimal casualties, and many now believe that
this is always possible.
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FACTOR 3:
UNACCEPTABLE FAILURES____________________________
Failure is unthinkable in some mission areas, and developing force
capabilities to support those missions is a high priority.
10
The task force
identified four events for which failure of defense is unacceptable: (1)
attack on the continental United States using weapons of mass destruction,
(2) attack on U.S. installations overseas using weapons of mass
destruction, (3) denial of access in areas of vital interest overseas, and (4)
the rise of a major competitor capable of defeating U.S. forces
conventionally.
The first two of these events would involve the high casualties
associated with employment of weapons of mass destruction, primarily
nuclear and biological weapons. For the foreseeable future, the United
States will rely on deterrence to prevent nuclear attack. As technology
matures, it may increasingly rely on defenses, at least for delivery by
ballistic missile. Technology should certainly be explored and fielded if it
matures. Biological threats are a more complex problem because of their
wider availability and the ability to deliver them covertly by a variety of
means.
On the conventional side, U.S. integration in an increasingly global
trading economy and its need for access to overseas energy sources are
compelling arguments for continued overseas basing and access on a
routine basis. While the emergence of a peer competitor with the power to
defeat the United States by either nuclear or conventional means is not
likely in the near term, the United States must work to ensure such a
capability does not emerge in the medium or long term.
FACTOR 4: ENABLING FUTURE
OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS ____________________________
Each of the military Services is developing and implementing new
concepts for forces and warfare, as depicted in Figure 2-1, which are
influenced by the Departments joint-warfare vision.

10
This study was conducted and completed prior to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
Perspectives on many issues discussed in this chapter would likely be influenced by those
events, but on the whole the task force believes its conclusions remain valid.
Chapter II.

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Figure 2-1. Military Service Future Force Concepts

The viability of future operational concepts is directly related to
whether technological advances will provide the means to fulfill these
visions. The joint perspective, which is discussed first, provides an
overarching context for the individual Service visions, which are
addressed in turn. The unique management problem of S&T and
acquisition to support joint command and control is also discussed here.
Joint Warfare: Joint Vision 2020
The U.S. military must be a joint force capable of full-spectrum
dominance. Implementing this vision requires optimal integration of all
joint forces and effects. Its basis is four-fold:
The global interests of the United States and the continuing
existence of a wide range of potential threats to those
interests.
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The central role of information technology to the evolution
of not only the U.S. military, but also the capabilities of
other actors around the globe.
The premium that a continuing broad range of military
operations will place on the successful integration of
multinational and interagency partners and the
interoperability of processes, organizations, and systems.
Reliance on joint forces as the foundation of future U.S.
military operations.
In Joint Vision 2020, the operational concepts established in Joint
Vision 2010 remain keydominant maneuver, precision engagement,
focused logistics, and full-dimensional protectionas Figure 2-2
illustrates. The vision confirms the direction of the ongoing
transformation of operational capabilities. It emphasizes the importance
of further experimentation, exercises, analysis, and conceptual thought,
especially in the areas of information operations, joint command and
control, and multinational and interagency operations. Joint Vision 2020
addresses the full range of military operationsbut warfighting remains
the primary focus.
Figure 2-2. Joint Vision 2020

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Changes in organization and doctrine require both technological and
intellectual innovation. Key S&T needs include C4I technology to support
integrated joint operations; wide-area sensing for a common operational
picture; and decision support technology for collaborative planning and
execution.
The Unique Case of S&T for Joint Command and Control
Despite their importance to operations, joint needs tend to suffer
considerably in the S&T investment allocation process. The lack of a
customer for S&T in a number of critical areas means that there is no
demand or customer pull for new technology. Thus, supporting S&T
programs are not executed, and technology transition to support joint
needs is slow at best. The need for an integrated joint command and
control and a joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, (ISR)
suite is critical to effective joint operations and deserves special mention.
The combatant commanders confirm that this requirement is a priority.
When directed to employ joint forces, a joint field command is formed
and tailored to the specific mission or taskingsuch as Desert Storm,
Bosnia, or Kosovo. Essential to employing joint forces, especially in the
critical early stages of a mission, are effective joint command and control
of assigned forces plus supporting communications and computer
interlinks and databases. A ready, trained, exercised, and demonstrated
joint-command element is fundamental to operational effectiveness. Yet,
the United States lacks such a capability today. Instead, command and
control and ISR assets are integrated for use at the time and point of need,
which means that systems are put together in ways that can be and have
been demonstrated to be detrimental to effective operations.
C4ISR assets are procured and owned by the Title 10 services and
provided, when needed, to a joint field command. The joint command
assembles its joint C4ISR suite as assets are provided, usually during the
early hours of an unfolding crisis. In general, these service-provided
C4ISR capabilities have been procured over an extended period of time,
based on individual service needs and resource availability. As a result
they fit into service architectures that may or may not be interoperable
with the systems and processes of other services. Integration challenges
range from reconciling unrelated waveforms and entirely different
frequency operating bands to trying to link software with incompatible
formats and overcoming conflicting network protocols. While joint
standards and protocols are being put in place in the acquisition
community, they primarily apply to new procurements. The connectivity
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problems that exist today will continue well into the futureat least until
one generation of procurements has elapsed.
In addition to being a serious interoperability challenge, the lack of an
effective approach to joint C4ISR creates other problems as well. The
joint commander is responsible and accountable for exercising command
and control over the assigned service forces but does not determine what
assets will be available. This is a serious command weakness, if not
vulnerability, particularly in the early hours of a crisis. Jointly organized
field commands appointed, and often immediately deployed, to deal with
the designated national security crisis need pre-crisis assurance of what
particular C4ISR assets will be made available upon demand, intimate
familiarity with the to-be-provided C4ISR hardware and software (through
pre-crisis exercising with the personnel who will be accountable for
exercising joint command and control), and finally, demonstrated pre-
crisis C4ISR interoperability among the assets to be provided.
An alternative solutionparticularly attractive from a command
accountability perspectivemight be to provide sufficient C4ISR funding
directly to geographic combatant commanders for them to build their own
deployable joint C4ISR systems, tailored to their missions. The
Department would have to either set aside existing funds for these
procurements or seek new procurement authorities to direct congressional
funding for joint C4ISR to newly established geographic accounts for the
combatant commanders. Combatant commanders would not require a full
acquisition organization; capabilities and systems identified for joint
C4ISR could be assigned to the Services for procurement using existing
service acquisition capabilities.
Also needed is a core joint force command element that would be
embedded in Joint Forces Command and used routinely in joint sponsored
exercises to provide command and control and ISR support to assigned
service elements. The challenge is to use technology to overcome
fundamental incompatibility among Service-owned electronic
communications, sensing, storing, and networking systems that would be
incorporated into a joint command and control system. The task is
substantialrequiring the use of existing joint communication and
information protocols and standards as guides to invent and field decision-
support tools that merge, integrate, display and move otherwise
incompatible voice, electronic, and data streams across the full range of
communication needs. Solutions need to be operationally tested as they
emerge, providing prompt and necessary feedback to developers as to the
potential for success. Once systems are fielded, the joint force command
element would be accountable to train frequently and exercise with an
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array of Service-provided C4ISR assets to ensure competence and
familiarity in their integration and employment.
In todays environment, the lack of a customer means that there is no
interface between the S&T, acquisition, and operational communities to
provide essential feedback during the development and operational testing
processes. A solution to this problem will require a commitment by the
Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs to a standing joint
command and control and ISR employment capability. Joint Forces
command would be a logical component to own, experiment, train,
operate, maintain, store, and ultimately employ a Joint C4ISR Command
Elementthus creating a customer and customer pull for technologies
to support these needs. The Office of the Secretary of Defense for
Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (OSD(C3I)) could
sponsor and fund the necessary research and development efforts, with
DDR&E oversight and DARPA and the Director, Operational Test and
Evaluation (DOT&E) as important technology partners.
The subject of joint C4ISR is addressed separately in other parts of this
study. This issue deserves special attention here, despite the fact that it is
as much an acquisition and management issue as it is one of science and
technology. Without well-defined requirements, the S&T community
must be involved in a leadership role in experimentation and concept
exploration to provide the basis for acquisition efforts.
With the joint operational vision as a backdrop, the individual Service
visions for future forces and operational concepts will be discussed.
Army: Objective Force
The Army is committed to developing a future force based on lighter
vehicles and capable of being deployed by existing strategic and tactical
airlift. This force is intended to meet all Army operational goals and be
decisive in any combat mission. Because light vehicles are inherently less
survivable, the Army intends to rely on future situational awareness and
command and control systems to employ effects at extended range without
relying primarily on concentrating forces for close combat.
The concept of the Armys objective force includes the following
elements:
Mass of effects, not forces.
Simultaneous, brief, violent attacks in multiple directions.
Attack, disengage, reorganize, and attack.
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Speed, situational awareness, robotics, and lethality together
replacing mass.
In addition to relying on situational awareness and command and
control to enable the massing of effects, the Army intends to rely on a very
high operational tempo to prevent an adversary from mounting a
successful defense or attack. Robotic systems are envisioned as part of the
force concept, as are extended-range lethal systems designed to limit
direct fire in close-in engagements.
The S&T needs required to support this concept are varied and include
the following: unmanned air and ground systems; advanced sensors for
air and ground; integrated real-time command and control and battle
management; extended range precision munitions; advanced vehicle
propulsion; and integrated survivability suites including signature
management. Though not all-inclusive, this list captures essential
capabilities needed to make the Armys Objective Force a reality.
The Armys plan includes an initial fielding in 2010 followed by block
upgrades and pre-planned, product improvements. Continuing technology
evolution and integration is central to the Armys approach. The Armys
goal is to be able to deploy one division anywhere in the world in 90 hours
and five divisions in 120 hours.
Navy: Network Centric Warfare
The United States Navy is undergoing a transformation to Network
Centric Operations (NCO), which will enable the Navy to more quickly
attain and sustain global access and to decisively influence future events at
sea and ashoreanytime, anywhere. NCO will dramatically strengthen
the Navys ability to shape an environment, deter an adversary, and should
deterrence fail, prevail in war.
The network centric concept is to be used as the organizing principle
for developing future Navy forces. It effectively pairs networking and
information technology with effects-based operations. NCO can be
broadly described as the art of deriving maximum force power through the
rapid and robust networking of diverse, well-informed, and geographically
dispersed warfighters. Effective Network Centric Operations will enable a
precise, agile style of maneuver warfare that can sustain access and
decisively influence events ashore. NCO focuses primarily on the
operational and tactical levels of warfare, but can have significant impact
on all levels of military activity in conflict resolutionfrom the tactical to
the strategic.
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Network Centric Operations harness the power of on-going
technological revolutions to dominate operational tempo and most rapidly
achieve warfighting aims across the full spectrum of military operations.
NCO requires an increased use of sensor networks and an improved
understanding of an adversarys operational approaches to mass effects in
a way that will have the most impact on an adversarys future course of
action by limiting his options.
Four major supporting concepts underpin Network Centric Operations:
gaining the information and knowledge advantage; assured access; effects-
based operations; and forward sea basing. The required science and
technology advances include: tiered and netted sensor grids above, on,
and below the sea; linked manned and unmanned vehicles; robust joint
C4ISR capabilities; decision aids and knowledge management
capabilities; interface capabilities between man and machine; and
efficient, high-speed and long-range surface and sub-surface platforms.
Air Force: Global Strike
The Air Force will meet the diverse challenges of the 21st century
through a vision of global vigilance, reach, and powera concept based
on an integration of air, space, and information operations. The intent is to
exploit the full air and space continuum on a regional and global scale to
achieve effects both on earth and in flight regimes beyond the horizon. A
foundation of this capability is achieving decision dominance over the
adversary through the fusion of a full range of information drawn from
national and tactical means and rapid conversion of this information into
decision-quality knowledge. The Air Force will provide the balanced air
and space capabilities that are key to meeting national security objectives
and realizing the full-spectrum dominance envisioned by Joint Vision
2020.
The Air Force will achieve its goals by enhancing its capabilities as an
expeditionary force, configured for the full spectrum of operations. The
Air Force has constituted 10 deployable Air Expeditionary Forces
(AEFs)two deployed or on call to meet current national requirements
while the remaining train and prepare for future operations. The AEFs
provide joint commanders with force packages that can be tailored to any
contingency. The Air Force vision is to increase capabilities through
innovations and adaptations that make these forces lighter, leaner, more
lethal, and more responsive.
The Air Force can deploy an AEF fast enough to curb many crises
before they escalate. In the near future, the Air Force will be able to
rapidly deploy up to five additional fully capable AEFs in 15 days, thereby
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providing joint force commanders options to begin offensive operations to
halt and win major wars.
To achieve this vision, the Air Force will require advances in a number
of areas. One requirement is the capability to horizontally integrate the
full range of information in real time and rapidly convert that information
to knowledge and understanding. Also required will be enhanced,
adaptive, real-time precision targeting, which increases the number of
targets that can be engaged; assured access to any target by overcoming
anti-access strategies; and enhanced capabilities to quickly defeat enemy
defenses. In addition, increasingly fast, flexible, responsive, and reliable
support will be the foundation of all Air Force operations..
The integration of revolutionary technological developments and
dramatically improved operational concepts and organizational changes
led to profound increases in combat capability as seen in recent successes
in Bosnia, Southwest Asia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan. Continuing
transformation efforts promise even greater potential, as the Air Force
continually transforms the way it approaches warfare. Assuring security
and stability requires global vigilance, reach, and powerglobal vigilance
to anticipate and deter threats, global reach to curb crises, and global
power to prevail in conflicts and win Americas wars.
U.S. Marine Corps: Expeditionary Maneuver Warfare
Expeditionary Maneuver Warfare (EMW) provides the philosophical
basis for the Marine Corps execution of future operations. It describes
Marine Corps operational capabilities across the spectrum, as they apply
not merely to amphibious operations, but to all aspects of warfare in and
around coastal waters. EMW is built on the twin pillars of maneuver
warfare and the Marine Corps expeditionary culture. The operational
concepts that constitute EMW are operational maneuver from the sea,
sustained operations ashore, and ship-to-objective maneuver.
Expeditionary Maneuver Warfare focuses the Marine Corps designed
competency and specifically enhanced capabilities in littoral warfare to
ensure that deployed future Marine Air-Ground Task Forces will best
support the Joint Force Commander throughout the spectrum of conflict.
EMW capitalizes on innovation, experimentation, and technology.
The properties of EMW are: compatibility with joint and
multinational missions, strategic agility, operational reach, tactical
flexibility, and support and sustainment. Strategic agility implies rapid
and fluid transition from pre-crisis to operational capability with forces
that are ready, sustainable, and rapidly tailored for multiple missions.
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These forces will be able to project and sustain force across the spectrum
of conflict in conjunction with other forms of national power. The goals
are overwhelming tempo and speed against an adversary and a responsive
force in a non-combat scenario.
EMW will couple doctrine with technological advances in speed,
mobility, fire support, communications, and navigation to seamlessly and
rapidly identify and exploit enemy weaknesses across the entire spectrum
of conflict. More specifically, S&T needs include: networked operational
communications, information, and intelligence systems; global access
capability to domestic and international information resources; high-speed
lift; mine and obstacle countermeasures; and precision navigation.
FACTOR 5: DANGERS FROM
ADVERSARY THREATS ________________________________
In the next 15 to 20 years, the United States does not expect to face a
peer competitor. There are, however, likely to be continued conflicts
around the world involving U.S. interests. Responding to these conflicts
will entail diverse global deployments in unpredictable environments.
U.S. forces will continue to be engaged in the full spectrum of conflict
conditions from peacekeeping to regional war. Facing the overwhelming
capabilities of U.S. conventional forces, adversaries will exploit
vulnerabilities in non-traditional ways, as Table 2-1 suggests. With
individual national interests around the world likely to change over time,
the United States cannot always rely on sanctuaries overseas, but must be
prepared to employ force from the continental United States, sanctuaries
far from the engagement area, and/or from sustainable maritime platforms.
Vulnerabilities
Potential adversaries with interests inimical to those of the United
States, will search out U.S. vulnerabilities not only in military and security
sectors but in other sectors of society as well. Adversaries who believe the
United States might intervene to protect its interests abroad are seeking
ways to frustrate or defeat the ability of the United States to respond to
crises. Examples perceived U.S. weaknesses allowing possible
exploitation include:
Vulnerability to single-point critical failures.
Vulnerability to catastrophic collapse of integrated network-
centric systems.
Insecurity of information systems.
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Table 2-1. Example Vulnerabilities and Potential Counters to U.S.
Military Employment Concepts and Capabilities
U.S.
Concepts
and
Capabilities
Adversary
Concept to
Counter U.S.
Strengths
Selected Non-
technical Adversary
Responses
Selected Technical
Adversary Responses
Precision Strike Reduce target
signatures
Deflect U.S.
weapons
Employ rules of
engagement
outside Geneva
Convention
Distribute forces
Hugging
Non-nodal forces
Human shields
Embed military forces in
civilian infrastructure
Camouflage Concealment and
Deception (decoys, buried
targets, multi-spectral
camouflage & smokes)
GPS jamming
Information
Dominance
Disrupt, degrade
U.S. capabilities
Create own effective
communications
and intelligence
Deception
Media manipulation
Primitive comms (couriers)
Better human intelligence
Information warfare (IW)
techniques shared among
adversaries
Radio Frequency disruption
Adversary capabilities:
Cell networks
Fiber optics
Quantum cryptography
Commercial space imagery
UAVs
Force
Protection
Create early, visible
casualties
Suicide missions
Terrorist-type attacks
(against barracks, ships)
Rumors of biological
warfare (BW)/chemical
warfare (CW)
contamination
Publicize casualties to
CNN
Thermobarics
Tandem RPGs
Laser blinders
CW/BW tactical use
Cruise missile proliferation
Low signature propellants for
surface-to-air missiles
Dominant
Maneuver
Prolong combat
and/or hide and
survive
Force urban combat
Seek out complex terrain
Ambush
Attrition
Obstacles
Hybrid (upgraded) ground
systems, including APS, night
visions
Artillery-delivered high precision
munitions
Assured
Entry/Access
Delay or deny Counter-coalition
diplomacy and
propaganda
Occupy access points
Hold civilians in targeted
access areas
BW/CW against ports and
airfields (CONUS or theater)
Counter stealth, such as PCL,
and other advanced air
defense
Advanced mines (naval and land)
Advanced torpedoes, unmanned
underwater vehicles
Focused
Logistics
Disrupt Deny host nation support IW against automated logistics
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Over-reliance on fragile technologies such as the global
positioning system or commercial communications
capabilities.
Possible unanticipated technological vulnerability of
weapons and platforms.
Inability to effectively operate with coalition partners and/or
allies,
Vulnerability in forced close combat, especially in urban
terrain.
Vulnerability to effective attack upon rear areas, especially
the deployment, logistics, sustainment, and support
infrastructure.
Vulnerability and fragility of U.S. space assets.
Broad use by adversaries of chemical and biological
weapons, especially in civilian areas.
Vulnerability to effective missile-defense countermeasures.
Vulnerability to effective anti-access and preemptive
strategies.
Daunting U.S. military capabilities force adversaries to respond
creatively. They will consider U.S. strengths and weaknesses and will
design approaches to avoid the former and while exploiting the latter.
Careful self-assessment of existing and future vulnerabilities is essential in
setting priorities to remedy them in an orderly fashion and with the least
risk. Sound priorities will focus on areas where scientific and
technological advances can most rapidly improve U.S. capability and
reduce risk.
FACTOR 6: PROGRESSIVE TECHNOLOGIES
AND MILITARY CAPABILITIES __________________________
Any prioritization of DoD S&T must take into account the full
spectrum of military and commercial technologies being pursued around
the globe. Critical is the challenge of understanding the direction of
evolving technologies and the potential they may offer for improved U.S.
military capability. The task force believes that the following list identifies
those technologies most likely to advance military capabilities in the
futurefor both the United States and its adversaries:
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Continued growth in computing power, both hardware and
software.
High bandwidth wireless communications.
Novel energetic materials.
Sensor materials, including radio-frequency components and
electro-optical and infrared focal plane arrays, in particular.
New capabilities offered through exploitation of
nanotechnology and microelectromechanical components.
Biological detection devices and therapeutics.
Unmanned systems.
Commercially available space-based sensor systems.
Active biological processes.
FACTOR 7: TECHNOLOGICAL
ADVANCEMENT AND WARFARE ________________________
Finally the relationship between future warfare and evolving
technology must be considered in identifying priorities for S&T
investment. Predicting, in peacetime, the optimal blend of organizational
structure, operational concepts, and technology for future conflicts is
always challenging. The best blend of the three has historically been
verified only by actual experience. Modern simulation and modeling
tools, however, provide a new opportunity to fully explore options in
peacetime.
At all levels of the S&T development process, modeling, simulation,
gaming theory, and war games should be used extensively in seeking out
useful insights, framing new concepts, and developing new and alternative
lines of scientific inquiry. This effort can also be extremely useful in
helping to educate end users, especially operational military personnel, in
the art of the possible before it can be demonstrated in the field or used in
actual combat.
This approach will also help to create technological buy in by
military institutions, which are often slow to change in the absence of
clear evidence of the failure or inadequacy of current concepts and
capabilities. The military has a tendency to use technology to do things
the same way, only better. Yet, the highest operational payoff is often in
doing new things or in doing old things in a totally different way. Today,
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there is a great deal of creative thinking driving the transformation of the
U.S. defense establishment.
Modern technology has already had a significant effect on the
battlefield and the nature of warfare. The increased lethality of modern
munitionsa result of improved range, precision, and energyis
outpacing the survivability of nearly all systems. Reliance on extended-
range engagement is emerging as a preferred and possibly dominant
method of warfare for strategic, air, naval, and ground operations. Yet, as
technology becomes increasingly available around the world, potential
adversaries will gain capabilities that will enable them to defend against
U.S. power. Even more worrisome is adversary exploitation of weapons
of mass destructionconventional, chemical, biological, and
radiologicalthat has the potential, especially in the near term, of
severely crippling not only U.S. military capability but the nation as a
whole.
Looking ahead, the next-generation battlefield will rely on a number of
emerging concepts enabled by new technologies, such as
Assured situational awareness and communications.
Highly automated operations including human control with
software decision aids and highly collaborative dynamic
operations.
Reliance on extended-range fires in all warfare regimes.
Reliance on unmanned systems for high-risk missions and
tasks.
HIGH-PRIORITY
MILITARY NEEDS
By assessing and synthesizing the key considerations described in
the previous section, the task force derived nine high-priority military
needs. In order to realize new operational capabilities in these areas, the
Department will need to make focused investments in science and
technology. The high-priority military needs are as follows:
1. Biological warfare defense for immediate detection and
defeat.
2. Capability to find and correctly identify difficult targets,
both static and mobile, which involves the ability to target
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adversary tactical forces for standoff engagement by air,
land, or from the sea.
3. Timely, accurate decision making that effectively
integrates joint and combined command, control,
communications, computers and intelligence (C4I) systems
to support operations at all levels.
4. Support of high-risk operations with systems such as un-
manned systems capable of high-risk tactical operations.
5. Missile defense that is cost effective with low leakage
against tactical and strategic missiles and unmanned aerial
vehicles.
6. Affordable precision munitions that are resilient when
subjected to countermeasures.
7. Enhanced human performance that overcomes natural
limitations on cognitive ability and endurance.
8. Rapid deployment and employment of forces globally
against responsive threats.
9. Global effects that can be delivered rapidly, anywhere.
In the sections to follow, these nine military needs are discussed. For
each, the task force examines the basis of need, identifies the technology
required to advance U.S. capabilities, identifies potential vulnerabilities
and risks, and describes the goals and approach of an effective S&T
initiative.
1. DEFENDING AGAINST BIOLOGICAL WARFARE__________
The biotechnology revolution has profound implications for biological
warfare defense. While the United States, along with many other nations,
ceased development of offensive biological warfare several decades ago,
there has not been a global commitment to do likewise. More worrisome
are non-state adversaries who can pursue offensive biological warfare
strategies beyond the purview and monitoring of responsible government;
the efforts of the Aum Shinriko organization and the recent anthrax attack
in the United States are cases in point.
The widespread application of modern molecular biology to create
novel and targeted biological weapons, while possible, has not currently
been experienced. If such weaponry were suspected to be available,
serious policy and operational questions would arise as to how to deal with
the potential risk. And, while this study was completed prior to the
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September 11, 2001, series of events, the distribution of anthrax spores via
the U.S. mail has now already stimulated the general debate over
developing possible counters.
The use of biological weapons opens an entirely new battlefront, in
that the target might not be restricted to military forces but could be the
U.S. population at large. And while the effects of various biological
agents vary in their speed from minutes to weeks, they can affect a large
population well before effective remedies can be implemented, even if
they are available.
The impact of biological attack on military operations is potentially
devastating. The ability to deploy forces can be affected by consequences
such as debilitated transportation systems and paralysis of ports
interfering with naval deployments, weapons shipments, and sustainment
supplies.
As noted earlier, information is lacking as to precisely what biological
warfare technologies and capabilities are being pursued around the world,
but intelligence estimates postulate that more than a dozen nations possess
or are pursuing offensive biological capabilities.
Smallpox is but one of may potential BW agents to which humans are
vulnerable. While a known and well-understood agent with known
vaccines for its various strains, the eradication of the disease in the early
1970s resulted in an international decision to terminate national
vaccination programs. Even those previously vaccinated are now
vulnerable, since vaccine effectiveness is estimated not to exceed 9 to 12
years. At present, vaccine supplies are insufficient to protect large
populations, military or otherwise.
One simulation of a smallpox attack in the Tidewater Virginia area
where there is a broad concentration of key U.S. military installations of
all the Servicesconcluded that, for the assumptions made, there could be
50 million deaths. Obviously, the assumptions for immunity, movement
of infected personnel, and other key factors will drive the results of such
simulations.
Defending Against Biological WeaponsThe Operational and
Technological Challenge
Developing a credible defense against and deterrence to the use of
biological warfare agents requires a broad spectrum of capabilities. The
demands on the S&T enterprise are significant and require a concerted,
coordinated, and integrated investment portfolio much greater than the
approximately $250 million per year the Department is spending today.
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Defense against biological weapons is extremely difficult and requires a
broad, systematic, and integrated approach.
A credible defense to deter biological warfare will require DoD to tap
promptly and effectively into the vast and expanding expertise in
biotechnology. Currently, DoD relationships with industry and academia
are weak in this area, with limited expertise within the military. Further,
the multi-billion-dollar research effort underway in the biotechnology
community is primarily oriented towards lifesaving and commercial
opportunities rather than DoD biowarfare concerns. Military
biotechnology interests are focused on the following:
Indications and warning. Developing sensors and
precursor identification; developing protection techniques
and measures; and developing predictive indicators of
activity for intelligence purposes.
11

Detection. Standoff wide-area surveillance with multi-
sensor, multi-dimensional data fusion; rapid agent
identification and classification; new forensic techniques to
determine, inter alia, attribution (signature of origin);
expanded field diagnostic capabilities.
Prediction. Accurate, predictive dispersion modeling
techniques supported by decision-making systems and field
capabilities for rapid implementation, for civilian (such as,
first responders) as well as military use.
Characterization and Response. Novel capabilities to
understand and mitigate health and performance effects and
neutralize toxicity; antidotes, vaccines, and therapeutics;
ability to rapidly identify newly engineered agents; and
ability to produce and prescribe effective countermeasures.
Protection. Wide-spectrum pre-attack vaccines; collective
and personal protection systems.
Agent-Defeat Weapons. The ability to attack rogue
biological and chemical production and delivery targets;
weapons capable of neutralizing facility and stored toxicity;
ability to rapidly neutralize and destroy already-distributed
agents over a wide area.

11
Of particular interest would be standoff identification characterization. However, detection of
biological agents from a standoff does not yet appear to be within technological reach and
funding dedicated to such efforts should be targeted, controlled, and carefully assessed.
Chapter II.

57
Vulnerabilities and Risks
The nature of advances in biotechnology and our understanding of
fundamental structures and effects are increasing at a pace unimagined
even a few years ago. Thus, while the current estimates ascribe a limited
probability of the use of BW against the United States in the next decade,
we could be surprised. Further, the nature of the agents used might be
very different than expected and thus could defeat warning and response
systems.
Today, the U.S. intelligence and public health systems have very
modest capabilities in this area. As a resultas in the recent anthrax case
in 2001the first indication of BW agent use is likely to be identification
of infected people, unless the agent used were extremely virulent.
Detection is more likely to be bottom upat the individual physician
levelthan to occur through a national detection system, which has not
yet been organized or integrated.
Goals and Approach
Recent comprehensive reviews have identified major systemic
problems with the current approach to biological warfare defense within
DoD and these problems remain valid today. Currently, efforts are
fragmented among multiple agencies. The relationship of DoD to non-
DoD research is not well coordinated, and, most importantly, the
magnitude of the effort is much too small. The Department lacks vision
for action and lacks leadership and coherent organization. A major step
forward can be made by putting someone in charge with the authority and
resources to manage a comprehensive program in biological warfare
defense.
Efforts for biological warfare defense must focus on two central
goalsgoals that are bold and aggressive, but represent the capability
needed. They are to
Enable U.S. forces and their support infrastructure to operate
in the face of a biological warfare attack.
Deter adversaries from using biological weapons.
Previous studies have proposed a number of initiatives that should be
included in a comprehensive program for BW defense. In particular, the
1999 DSB Summer Study on 21st Century Defense Technology Strategies
proposed four major technology thrusts, which DoD should pursue.
12
One

12
The Defense Science Board 1999 Summer Study Task Force on 21
st
Century Defense
Technology Strategies, Volume I (1999).
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58
of the four thrusts recommended by the study, BIOSHIELD, involves
S&T investments on the order of $1.4B per year.
The S&T program proposed in that study included several dimensions:
effective threat detection, effective threat response, and revolutionary
treatment options. One element of an effective threat detection and
response is the development of affordable sensor arrays that would allow
blanket coverage of an area through wide dissemination. Another is
development of a biosignature to assess a BW threat. The bio-signature
concept would include genomics and proteomics profiles, biochemical
fingerprints, and forensic attribution. Also important are decontamination
and countermeasures such as rapid automated responses, new classes of
decontaminants, and surface coatings to kill pathogens on contact.
Opportunities exist to use to use advances in biotechnology to develop
revolutionary treatment options. Presymptomatic diagnosis of infection
would enable early detection of the body defense reaction, allow rapid
treatment for a better outcome, and enable optimal control of the spread of
infection. Advanced vaccine technologies would allow expanded
pathogen coverage and on-demand surge production of designer vaccines.
The development of new drugs would provide immunity enhancement, a
new broad spectrum of antibiotics, and pathogen grabbers.
13

The Defense Science Board Task Force on Defense Against Biological
Weapons examined the BW threat and in particular the implications for
homeland defense.
14
A large-scale biological attack on the U.S. homeland
would be devastating in its own right and would also have severe
implications for DoDs ability to conduct its missions. Moreover, the
attack of high-value military targets in the United States provides high-
leverage asymmetric opportunities for an enemy, such as:
Compromised U.S. force projection.
Inevitable cross-infection of civilians involved in logistics
support.
Civilian impacts such as erosion of base services, panic, and
hostility.
One of the urgent priorities identified in the 2000 study was the need
to build a comprehensive, centralized database of bioagent fingerprints.

13
Each of these initiatives is described in more technical detail in the 1999 Defense Science Board
Summer Study on 21
st
Century Defense Technology Strategies, Volume II.
14
Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defense Against Biological Weapons:
Leveraging Advances in Biotechnology and Medical Informatics to Improve Homeland
Biodefense Capabilities, 2000 Summer Study, Volume IV (Washington, DC: Office of the
Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics), October 2001.
Chapter II.

59
These signatures would in turn enable the design of new diagnostics and
testing technology and provide potential insights to guide strategies for
drug and vaccine development. The study recommended creation of a
data acquisition and information architecture for biodefense that would
provide the following:
A Bioagent Identification and Information Center,
responsible for the collection, analysis, annotation and
curation of a BIOPRINT databasea comprehensive
inventory of molecular signatures (or fingerprints) of the
most medically common microbial infections and the top 50
biothreat agents. The center would:
- Be laboratory-based.
- Be responsible for sample collection, archiving and
security.
- Use genome sequencing and other profiling tools.
- Probe designs for Z- and FZ-chips, to be used for rapid
diagnostic testing to distinguish between conventional
pathogens and bioagents.
- Provide a secure repository of bioagents and profiling to
limit open-source risks.
A Bioagent Warning and Communication System that would
provide a monitoring and alerting function for biodefense. It
would include:
- A computational network.
- An alerting network for DoD bases and points of
embarkment, TRICARE, reserve component, and the
Center for Disease Control and other key civilian public
health systems.
- Advanced data-mining tools for epidemiological data.
Additionally, this study identified the need for creation of a New Joint
Biodefense Organization.
The Report of the Defense Science Board/Threat Reduction Advisory
Committee Task Force on Biological Defense is the most comprehensive
of the previous studies. The recommendations of this study are
extensive.
15
They include the following:
Rank biological attack comparable to nuclear attack.

15
Report of the Defense Science Board/Threat Reduction Advisory Committee Task Force on
Biological Defense (Washington D.C.: Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for
Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics), June 2001.
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60
Enable military mission and thus strengthen civil defense.
Implement a coherent strategy and put someone in charge.
Anticipate a central role in civil defense.
Build a strong science and technology base.
Reengineer the role of intelligence and deterrence.
Educate, game, red team, experiment, exercise, and train.
It is important to note that the 2001 DSB study concluded that the
subject of biological defense is rich in opportunities for the DoD.
Biological weapons have characteristic weaknesseslatency, sensitivity
to environmental conditions, sensitivity to vaccines and medical care as
countermeasures, and susceptibility to simple passive defenses.
The 2001 DSB study also concluded that there is much that can and
should be done to both improve the response to and reduce the risk of
biological weapons. The problem of BW defense is not too hard unless
it includes the unrealistic objective of zero casualties. Further, credible
defenses and the means to attribute the sources of BW agents are
tremendous deterrents to the use of biological weapons. Yet perceptions
that the United States has both these capabilities are inaccurate.
The task force believes that a comprehensive program is essential.
Many recommendations from previous studies are still valid. Key steps to
developing an effective program include
Establishing and designating an agency within DoD to
manage all aspects of biological defense. The need for
someone in charge of this important area with authority,
accountability and resources to direct all aspects of DoDs
BW defense program is critical. Without this step, there is
little hope for achieving the needed results. This effort
deserves establishment of an organization comparable to
the Missile Defense Agency.
Implementing the recommendations for biological
warfare defense of the 2001 Joint DSB/TRAC Task Force
on Biological Defense. This report describes the bulk of
the activities that the Department of Defense needs to
implement.
Increasing the DoD S&T investment from $250 million
per year to at least $1 billion per year. A program of at
least this magnitude is required to begin to adequately
address this challenge.
Chapter II.

61
Implement the biological threat database and warning
system recommendations of the 2000 DSB Task Force on
Defense Against Biological Weapons.
2. FINDING DIFFICULT TARGETS________________________
Unobscured, fixed military targets are relatively easy to detect and
identify. However, moveable targets, concealed by camouflage or foliage,
as well as targets in structures or underground, are currently extremely
difficult to detect and identify using standoff sensors. Vehicles moving on
the ground can be detected by ground moving target indicator (GMTI)
radar such as Joint STARS, but it is difficult with current standoff sensors
to identify them as military targets, particularly when they are obscured by
weather.
Recent experience in the Balkans and the Persian Gulf has
demonstrated the difficulty of discriminating decoys from actual military
targets. In Kosovo, for example, approximately 300 tank kills were
claimed, but less than a dozen tank kills could be confirmed; in fact, many
rounds hit only decoys. In the Persian Gulf, about 40 SCUDs were
launched. Six thousand Allied sorties were flown against SCUD TELs,
but no actual SCUD TELs were found and only about five decoys were
destroyed.
The examples cited are situations where finding, identifying, and
classifying targets has proven to be difficult. Technological and
operational approaches to solve this problem are being pursued within
DARPA as well as the four Services. DARPA is properly pursuing the
particularly high-risk potential technological approaches, while the
Services are more closely focused on nearer term solutions.
Concepts for Future Capabilities
Significantly increasing the capability to detect, identify, and
discriminate valid targets is essential to U.S. military transformation.
Multiple layers of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance sensors
are recommended in order to provide broad-area search both through long-
range and shorter-range observation so that difficult targets may be
detected, identified, and subsequently attacked. Since targets can be
concealed in so many different ways, a multi-layered system employing
many different sensor types will be more likely to successfully detect,
identify, and discriminate difficult targets, and also be less sensitive to
countermeasures, than any single sensor system in isolation. Figure 2-3
illustrates the elements of a layered ISR system.
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62
Figure 2-3. Concept Multiple Layers of Intelligence, Surveillance and
Reconnaissance

Technology Requirements
The Department of Defense needs to establish a focused science and
technology program to develop the elements of this multi-layer ISR
system, to include high-altitude airborne, mid-to-low altitude airborne, and
ground-based layers.
High-altitude Airborne Layer. In a multi-layered approach, high-
altitude sensors would have the task of broad-area search for locations in
which to employ the mid-to-low-altitude and ground-based sensors. The
goal is to develop airborne radar capable of super range resolution, GMTI,
and 3-dimensional imaging through foliage and into structures.
A three-part ultra high frequency (UHF) radar technology program is
recommended for the high-altitude layer. All three parts of the program
need to be started now, but demonstrations of these new capabilities will
occur in phases due to the increasing difficulty of each. No science and
technology programs currently exist to accomplish any of the following:
Incorporate super-range resolution into UHF foliage-
penetration radar without increasing interference with other
military and civilian systems operating in the UHF portion
of the spectrum.
Numerous small surface
sensors detect and
communicate
Mid-range air assets find,
identify or cue, relay and
designate
High altitude assets find
and cue to possible
targets
Numerous small surface
sensors detect and
communicate
Mid-range air assets find,
identify or cue, relay and
designate
High altitude assets find
and cue to possible
targets
Chapter II.

63
Add a GMTI mode to the UHF radar in order to detect
vehicle movements under foliage and camouflage, as well
as in the open.
Add a three-dimensional, high-resolution imaging mode to
the UHF radar to better separate targets under the trees
from the treetops themselves in the radar return.
Mid-to-low-altitude Airborne Layer. Operating below the cloud layer,
the mid-to-low-altitude airborne sensors would have the task of searching
for targets, as well as investigating potential targets cued by the high-
ltitude airborne sensors and other assets. A two-part technology program
is recommended for this layer:
Develop multi-spectral laser radar capable of three-
dimensional imaging through camouflage and openings in
foliage. This sensor would be hosted on a small, long-
endurance unmanned aerial vehicle that is also equipped
with a laser designator and communication capabilities up to
the high-altitude layer and down to ground sensor networks.
Develop a hovering and perching micro-air-vehicle with
optical day and night vision. The vehicle should be able to
approach within a few hundred meters of potential
concealment locations to detect, identify, and discriminate
difficult targets.
Ground-based Layer. Commercial micro sensors are becoming more
diverse, more capable, smaller in size, and less expensive. Examples
include radio frequency tags on store merchandise, accelerometers in
automobile crash-safety systems, and audio amplifiers in hearing aids.
This technology can be exploited to address the detection, identification,
and discrimination of difficult military targets.
The concept is to dispense huge numbers of inexpensive micro sensors
into areas of interest discovered by the high- and mid-to-low-altitude
airborne sensors and other broad-area ISR assets. The layout also includes
local control nodes that relay data from the micro sensors to the airborne
nodes. There are no sensors on the local nodes (which are depicted as
canisters in Figure 2-4 to symbolize work already done on the ARGUS
program). The local and airborne nodes will autonomously form mesh
networks with the microsensors. The mesh networks will use Internet
Protocol-based routing algorithms and continuously adapt to changing
traffic, mobility, and propagation patterns.
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64
Figure 2-4. Layered ISR Approach

The ground-based sensor development program would begin with
sensor devices of a single type (for example, a magnetometer or acoustic
sensor) and expand over time to incorporate additional devices able to
sense different phenomena. As additional sensor types were added to the
network, various signatures would be systematically integrated and fused,
compared to a template database, and used to predict, if not conclusively
identify, the particular item of interest and properly classify whether it is a
target of interest or not.
Airborne Sensors. Super resolution, as well as UHF and three-
dimensional imaging through foliage at UHF frequency ranges, has proven
to be a difficult technical problem as is accurate navigation of a mini-UAV
among trees or in dense urban terrain. Navigation would be further
complicated by countermeasures such as nets or barriers, although, if these
countermeasures were detected, flight altitudes could be adjusted without
excessive mission degradation. The operational importance of this
airborne sensing capability would lead to the development of
countermeasures such as jammers and decoys. Landing and/or perching of
mini-UAVs, while a highly desired operational capability, is currently
difficult as well. Finally, the balance between autonomy and tele-
operation for mini-UAV platforms is an area requiring additional study
and resolution.
Airborne Node
Airborne relay collects
and integrates across
local nodes
GPS, ability to
interrogate the
micro sensors and
build microsensor
maps (location &
sensor data)
Micro sensors
Local Nodes
Transducer,
power, and
communication
Micro sensors getting more:
Diverse (magnetic, acoustic, thermal );
Capable (on-chip processing, );
Smaller (cm
3
mm
3
); and
Less expensive ($100s $1s)
Adaptive networks that:
Receive a few bits of data from diverse
micro sensors
Continuously adapt to traffic, mobility,
and propagation patterns
Dispenser
Airborne Node
Airborne relay collects
and integrates across
local nodes
GPS, ability to
interrogate the
micro sensors and
build microsensor
maps (location &
sensor data)
Micro sensors
Local Nodes
Transducer,
power, and
communication
Micro sensors getting more:
Diverse (magnetic, acoustic, thermal );
Capable (on-chip processing, );
Smaller (cm
3
mm
3
); and
Less expensive ($100s $1s)
Adaptive networks that:
Receive a few bits of data from diverse
micro sensors
Continuously adapt to traffic, mobility,
and propagation patterns
Dispenser
\
1
Chapter II.

65
Ground-Based Microsensors. Ground-emplaced sensors need to be
highly reliable with minimum false alarm rates. Making them so is
difficult because of the wide range of stimuli that they must be assess and
correctly categorize. One possibility to reduce false alarm rates is to
explore the use of off-board processing for sophisticated assessments,
either on airborne platforms or at a larger-capacity local ground node.
The discovery and removal of a local node is a vulnerability that could
render a portion of an array inoperative (data exfiltration). Redundant
local nodes that remain silent until queried by the airborne nodes and that
can reconfigure their networks when a few nodes are removed may
address this concern. Microsensors would be quite small, thereby making
adversary detection more difficult but not impossible. Additional work
needs to be done to minimize the probability of detection of such arrays
and nodes; possible strategies include shielding transmissions, altering
reporting cycles, and using power modes that are close to ambient noise
levels. Even less expensive sensor and local node decoys could be added
to the array to further complicate enemy removal of sufficient quantities to
degrade the network.
The vitality and durability of a deployed sensor network is critically
dependent on reliable and sustained power. Recharging from solar cells
and introducing low-power sleep modes are possible approaches.
Standoff delivery and effective deployment of the microsensors and local
nodes is a technical challenge, but the Joint Standoff Weapon and Multi-
Rocket Launch System should be investigated as possible dispensing
mechanisms. Finally, until broad demand develops in the commercial
market for micro sensors and associated nodes, the cost of these
technologies may remain high and restricted to only the highest priority
military applications.
Goals and Approach
The task force proposes a series of demonstration milestones occurring
at 2, 5 and 10 years for both the airborne and ground-based layers. More
specifically, for the airborne sensors, demonstration milestones would
include the following:
First demonstration, 2 years. UHF super range resolution
using radar in test chamber and existing ground-based
radar.
Second demonstration, 5 years. Airborne foliage
penetration GMTI radar with super range resolution mode
finds moving and stationary vehicles under foliage; mini-
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66
UAV day and night optical sensor and ladar identifies
targets through openings in foliage; GPS coordinates with
foliage penetration radar and identification from mini-UAV
enables immediate targeting.
Third demonstration, 10 years. Airborne foliage
penetration GMTI and three-dimensional imaging radar;
perching mini-UAV with optical sensor identifies fixed
targets under foliage and targets in structures.
Specific demonstration milestones for ground-based micro sensors
include the following:
First demonstration, 2 years. Identify, discriminate, and
track any vehicle in a one-kilometer square area in adverse
weather conditions and/or under foliage; define
countermeasure vulnerability; transmit near real-time to
airborne relay(s).
Second demonstration, 5 years. Identify, discriminate, and
track people in addition to vehicles; increase area surveyed
(increased challenge in data fusion); system should remain
functional in active countermeasure environment.
Third demonstration, 10 years. Integrate into common
operating picture; inside buildings; underground facilities;
mobile microsensors.
The phased demonstration approach will permit transition to
acquisition programs in phases consistent with spiral development.
16
The
task force recommends that DARPA manage the ground-based
microsensor technology program because of its revolutionary nature. The
Services may manage the airborne sensor programs, but it is essential that
DDR&E have authority to harmonize the pieces so that an interoperable
multi-layered ISR system can develop.
Figure 2-5 depicts notionally the potential for improved capability in
the detection, identification, and classification of difficult targets.
However, such progress is dependent upon results from ongoing and
future scientific and technological efforts.
Taking a systematic approach to finding difficult targets and
prioritizing S&T efforts across the various approacheshigh-altitude
airborne, mid-altitude airborne, and ground platformsshould bring about
satisfactory solutions sooner. It is estimated that $200 million per year

16
A discussion of spiral development can be found in Chapter 4.
Chapter II.

67
will be required for the airborne sensor and platform technologies and
$150 million per year will be required for the ground-based sensor
technologies and the technology for their associated communications
nodes.
Figure 2-5. Operational Improvement and Funding

3. MAKING TIMELY, ACCURATE DECISIONS ______________
The many contingency operations undertaken by the U.S. military in
the past decade highlight the fact that planning cycles for employing U.S.
forces are too long to effectively conduct intended missions. The time
required to collect and consolidate situational information, to analyze
these data and develop a mission plan, and to gain approval for the plan,
can result in a plan that no longer reflects reality when the mission is
executed.
If U.S. forces are to be effective in the future, decision cycle time
needs to be reduced from days or hours to minutes. Reducing decision
cycle time will require exploiting information technologies and
reengineering the command and control process and its culture. The first
step is to develop and exploit information technology, which in turn will
facilitate the needed process re-engineering.
Probability
of Detection
and Correct
Identification
1.0
Fixed
Installations
(Air Fields)
Movable
(SA-6)
Moving
(Tanks)
Under
Foliage
In
Buildings
Under
Ground
Target Classes
0.5
Today
Future Given a focused
program for all the layers of ISR
Continuing
Improvements
From S&T
Investments
0
Troops
Funding:
Airborne Sensors:
$200M/year
Ground-based
Micro sensors:
$150M/year
Total:
$350M/year
Probability
of Detection
and Correct
Identification
1.0
Fixed
Installations
(Air Fields)
Movable
(SA-6)
Moving
(Tanks)
Under
Foliage
In
Buildings
Under
Ground
Target Classes
0.5
Today
Future Given a focused
program for all the layers of ISR
Continuing
Improvements
From S&T
Investments
0
Troops
Funding:
Airborne Sensors:
$200M/year
Ground-based
Micro sensors:
$150M/year
Total:
$350M/year
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68
Timely, accurate decisions are the central element in all military
functions and missions, as Figure 2-6 illustrates. An integrated decision-
support system is needed to facilitate the decision-making processa
system composed of decision-support tools, intelligent information
management, information fusion and dissemination, and integration of
communications. The system should provide robust, assured information
services to the warfighter very rapidly.
Figure 2-6. The Vision

One concept for a decision-support system involves a multiple-layer
construct where information is shared between layers. Entitiessuch as
people, weapons platforms, sensors, or robotswould provide
information to and use information from the system. The system would
have the ability to dynamically adapt to meet the information needs of all
entities. The multiple layers of the system would include:
Decision-support tools capable of supporting a variety of
interactions such as multi-party, on-line collaboration,
faster than real-time course-of-action planning; and
continuous machine-based planning.
NAVIGATION/
GEOPOSITIONING
SURVEILLANCE
WEAPONS
FORCE
Global
Local
Wide area
High resolution
INFORMATION
OPERATIONS
LOGISTICS
SUPPORT
Decision
Support Services
Agent-based information
services
Intelligent, integrated
communication intranetwork
Adaptive, dynamic resource
management
Secure/assured
ENHANCEMENT
IW: Information Warfare.
Remote/local
Accurate
Responsive
Inexpensive
Mobile
Lethal
Sustainable
Flexible
Robust
Distributed
Inexpensive
Just enough
Just in time
Fully visible
Defensive IW
Offensive IW
Assurance
NAVIGATION/
GEOPOSITIONING
SURVEILLANCE
WEAPONS
FORCE
Global
Local
Wide area
High resolution
INFORMATION
OPERATIONS
LOGISTICS
SUPPORT
Decision
Support Services
Agent-based information
services
Intelligent, integrated
communication intranetwork
Adaptive, dynamic resource
management
Secure/assured
ENHANCEMENT
IW: Information Warfare.
Remote/local
Accurate
Responsive
Inexpensive
Mobile
Lethal
Sustainable
Flexible
Robust
Distributed
Inexpensive
Just enough
Just in time
Fully visible
Defensive IW
Offensive IW
Assurance
Chapter II.

69
Information services that rely on intelligent software
agents to provide automated information fusion,
management, and dissemination services. Intelligent
software agents would transform data into information to
support unit operations and would proactively provide
information to the user based on specific needs.
Communication services that would take advantage of
commercial technology and networks. This layer would be
based on open-systems standards and protocols, with
minimal use of Service- or function-unique hardware or
software.
A great deal of available and evolving commercial information
technology can be exploited as components for developing an integrated
military decision-support system. Commercial information technology
standards facilitate system interoperability and the technologies can
provide improved decision response times. However, there are significant
military enhancements needed to meet DoD operational requirements
capabilities such as self-healing and self-managed networking, anti-jam
capabilities, low probability of intercept, and spread-spectrum waveforms.
Through a focused S&T program, it is possible for the Department to
exploit the enormous private-sector investments in information
technology. DoD should invest its information technology resources in
three S&T areas: (1) decision support services, (2) information services,
and (3) communication services.
Decision-Support Services. The technologies associated with
decision-support services include generative planning, case-based
reasoning, context-based information management, and coarse-grained
dynamic parallel processing. The latter technology is intended to allow
distributed parallel course-of-action generation. Additional technology
challenges to be addressed include:
Operating systems that provide coarse-grained, distributed,
parallel processing between dispersed processing systems.
Distributed algorithms that permit dynamic load leveling,
adaptive computation, and self-management, to ensure
graceful degradation at the point of service.
Algorithms and protocols that tightly integrate distributed
computational resources with transport infrastructure.
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70
Collaboration tools that support multi-party, real-time
interaction.
Information Services. Information services are supported by
intelligent software agents and related infrastructure. Intelligent service
application software agents provide tailored data acquisition, processing,
and fusion, and also generate and disseminate information to users. These
agents deliver processed, synoptic information instead of volumes of data
and images. The service application software agents collaborate to
proactively recognize pertinent situation changes that may be of interest to
the user. The agents replicate themselves as necessary for efficiency and to
ensure that users are provided with continuous service.
Intelligent application software agents provide an array of functions
appropriate to the users mission and situation. The agents discover and
integrate information from multiple, heterogeneous databases; broker
information sharing between other agents; and negotiate with service
agents to establish appropriate network and resource allocations. These
agents are adaptive in that they profile user needs against direct user input,
past user requirements, and an understanding of user mission, status, and
intentions.
Intelligent software agent research and development is presently being
pursued both in the private and public sectors and should be leveraged to
achieve the capabilities described.
Communication Services. Communication services must transport
information in a secure, reliable fashion and must be adaptive and self-
healing. They include ground-based local area networks providing data
and information services, airborne networks and processors to transport
data and information services, and space segments to provide connectivity
over widely dispersed areas. The following technology challenges must
be met to develop integrated, scalable communication services. DoD has
made a modest investment in these areas, but its efforts need to be
expanded and focused on military-unique needs.
Distributed algorithms and protocols that dynamically
manage communication hardware to provide (1) real-time
control of radio waveforms, link capacity, and network
topology; (2) intra- and inter-network data routing; (3)
distribution of network state information for adaptive, real-
time self management; and (4) distribution of state
information exchanged between transport and information-
processing layers.
Chapter II.

71
Distributed inter-network management and control
algorithms and protocols that permit topology configuration
and balancing of loads across the network.
Distributed algorithms and protocols that will adapt to meet
dynamic quality-of-service requests made by the warfighter.
Goals and Approach
Figure 2-7 identifies the challenges that should be incorporated into a
focused DoD S&T program to realize an operational decision-support
system. The approach suggested would allow the capabilities in each
layer to evolve over a 10-year period. For each layer, the technical
challenges involve increasing the number of real or virtual entities that
interact to support timely, accurate decision-making.
A series of advanced technology demonstrations are recommended
every two and one-half years to integrate the capabilities in each layer.
The demonstrations would be conducted against a specific set of
operational metrics, based on the accomplishments in the earlier
demonstration. As these metrics are demonstrated, the maturing
technologies would ideally be transitioned into a baseline, integrated,
operational, joint C4ISR system. The end result will be significant
improvement in military operational capabilities, as the following metrics
detail:
Planning will not limit execution. Decision time will be
reduced from hours or weeks to minutes.
Ability to engage moving targets will increase significantly.
For field artillery, it will be reduced from 30 minutes to
time-of-flight plus seconds; for tactical air missions, from
days to minutes.
Decisions will be based on a more robust set of analyzed
alternatives. The number of credible options analyzed will
increase from one or two to tens.
Decisions will be made more quickly than the opponent can
counterthat is, within the opponents decision cycle.
Cycle time will be an order-of-magnitude faster than that of
an opponent.
Synchronization of joint and combined actions will occur,
considering all relevant factors (including political and non-
military). The collaboration community will increase from 8
to 10 entities to hundreds.
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Figure 2-7. Time-Phased S&T Goals

This system should be established in the near term by leveraging
commercial information technology and integrating existing DoD C4ISR
systems. The agent for developing a baseline system should be Joint
Forces Command, as suggested in numerous prior Defense Science Board
studies. The S&T program to support the decision-support system would
use the Joint Forces Command integrated-C4ISR baseline as the target for
advanced technology transition and insertion. To manage the program, the
many ongoing projects at DARPA and the Service laboratories and
research centers should be aggregated under a single program executive
director, who would focus additional S&T resources on developing the
technologies needed to meet the vision described.
4. ENABLING
HIGH-RISK OPERATIONS _____________________________
Over the last century the United States has perfected its own unique
style of warfare that relies heavily on firepower in support of maneuver.
For example, when the Korean War began, U.S. forces used one artillery
battalion to support each maneuver battalion; by the end of the wars first
year, 14 artillery battalions supported each maneuver battalion. More
Layer 3 Communication Services
Self Configuring and
Healing Networks
Self Managed Nodes
100s nodes 1000s nodes 100,000s nodes
Dynamic Load Balancing
Layer 2 Information Services
Interagent Language
Interagent Service
Negotiations
Data Fusion
Information Abstraction
100s agents 1000s agents 100,000s agents
0 5 10
Layer 1 Decision Support Services
Distributed/Interactive
COA Analysis
Collaborative Planning
and Replanning
Collaborative Battlespace
Visualization
< 10 participants 100 participants
Interlayer Adaptation
Adaptive Decision
Adaptive Information
Services
Modest Comms Degradation Severe Degradation
Years
Integrated Technology Demonstrations
Healing Networks
Self Managed Nodes
Healing Networks
Self Managed Nodes
Interagent Language
Interagent Service
Negotiations
Data Fusion
Interagent Language
Interagent Service
Negotiations
Data Fusion
0 5 10
Layer 1 Decision Support Services
COA Analysis
and Replanning
Visualization
< 10 participants 100 participants Layer 1 Decision Support Services
COA Analysis
and Replanning
Visualization
< 10 participants 100 participants < 10 participants 100 participants
Interlayer Adaptation
Adaptive Decision
Services
Modest Comms Degradation Severe Degradation Interlayer Adaptation
Adaptive Decision
Services
Modest Comms Degradation Severe Degradation Modest Comms Degradation Severe Degradation
Years
Integrated Technology Demonstrations
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recently, the United States has relied heavily on air strikes as an additional
form of firepower. In Desert Storm, 46,000 air-interdiction and close air-
support air strikes were flownmany prior to the initiation of the ground
campaignin addition to 70,000 sorties of other types. Furthermore, the
United States has sought to perfect standoff precision strikes as a way to
use firepower without placing U.S. combat personnel in harms way.
The impact of increased use of firepower on casualties is illustrated in
Figure 2-8. The effects of massive firepower can be significant in the
strategic and operational phases of war and then diminish at close-in
tactical ranges. On the other hand, friendly casualties are relatively few
during the strategic and operational phases of a conflict and increase
dramatically as tactical combat closes to close range. The point where
these two trend lines cross is termed the point of convergence.
Figure 2-8. Relationship Between Firepower and Casualties

Over the last decade, adversaries have sought through various methods
to force U.S. forces into close combatavoiding the effects of U.S.
firepower and taking advantage of the potential for higher U.S. casualties.
(Over the past one hundred years, 97 percent of all casualties have been in
close combat, with 85 percent in the infantry.) The United States will
continue to face close-combat situations when trying to achieve particular
military objectives. As a result, new approachessuch as the use of
unmanned systemsare needed to reduce risk to U.S. forces.
Strategic Operational Tactical
Effects of
Massive
Firepower
Percent of
Total
Casualties
Convergence of forces
Strategic Operational Tactical
Effects of
Massive
Firepower
Percent of
Total
Casualties
Convergence of forces
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Future Operational Concepts
Unmanned systems offer the potential to regain the initiative in close-
in combat by forcing the adversary to operate at a higher operational
tempo than he can manage. Unmanned systems can operate in conjunction
with manned forces while greatly reducing the exposure of manned forces
and can also be used for some high-risk tasks in the operational phase of a
conflict. Additional advantages could include
Potential for a true train as you fight process.
Simulator training that is the same as combat operations.
Greater reach-back capability for remote war fighting.
Lower cost of training, operations and maintenance, and
logistics.
Long endurance and wider dynamic range.
Enhanced survivability at greater ranges of temperature,
pressure, g-load, and altitude.
Ability to conduct one way missions.
Support and facilitation of team and joint operations.
Greater multi-mission, multi-sensor potential.
The use of unmanned systems in combat has been limited. The United
States used unmanned aerial vehicles to a very limited extent during the
Vietnam War and subsequent combat engagements, primarily for
reconnaissance and signals-collection purposes. Their expanded use in
recent years reflects not only the utility of improved technology but also
increased acceptance of such capabilities to reduce risk to manned systems
as well as to relegate more mundane and routine tasks to automated
systems, as Figure 2-9 suggests. Newer approaches, such as the use of
robotic systems to perform these and other tasks, need further
conceptualization and testing.
Use of unmanned aerial vehicles, while still in its infancy, has largely
been accepted as a useful approach that requires expansion and further
exploitation. Operationally useful unmanned ground vehicles, however,
are not yet in widespread use. This fact is due to the difficult technical
challenge of coping with the much more complex ground environment
possibly including poor weather, short lines-of-sight, and complex and
urban terrainin and around buildings, trees, ditches, standing water, and
rubble, for exampleand the more complex and diverse tactical situations
of ground operations. All of these factors combine to place constraints and
demands on the performance attributes such systems must possess. For
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unmanned systems (both aerial and ground) to be useful in supporting
infantry or carrying out infantry tasks, an array of technologies must be
advanced and integrated.
Figure 2-9. Unmanned Systems

Broadly speaking, the technical advances required are in behaviors,
mobility, power, miniaturization of sensors and processing, and lethality
of small weapons. But unmanned ground systems must possess two other
important attributes besides being functional themselves. First, they must
be integrated into the overall set of infantry systems, including being
controlled by humans when appropriate. Second, they must carry out their
tasks within the constraints imposed by the rules of engagementand
these can sometimes be quite restrictive and complex.
While few systems have actually been fielded, technologies related to
unmanned vehicles have advanced significantly over the past several
decades. Many of these technologies can be integrated into an accelerated,
focused program leading to a meaningful ground operational capability.
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Key technological needs include
Assured wideband communications providing near real-time
updates to operators.
Development of self-learning, reasoning, and behavioral
algorithms.
Integration of multi-int sensors with a robotic strike
platform.
Neural modeling.
Traditional wheeled vehicle tracked to organic mimicking
walking and crawling vehicles.
Sensory exploitation and interaction with robotic control
architectures.
Navigation and target detection sensor abstractions.
Goals and Approach
To develop the needed technologies, a multi-phased, 10-year S&T
program is recommended. The program would be structured into two
technically aggressive, successive five-year demonstration programs.
Each of these programs would culminate in an advanced technology
demonstration in which several lethal, highly mobile, reasoning robots
would be demonstrated in complex and realistic operational environments.
The goal of the overall program would be to develop a company-sized
force, of manned and unmanned systems, which would demonstrate a
clearing operation in an occupied urban block. The unmanned force
would be remotely directed to clear and secure buildings and streets,
detain and secure a segment of the population, and provide force
protection. The objective would be to demonstrate the ability of the
unmanned systems in
Integration with human forces.
Self-protection.
Verification of hostile forces and non-combatants.
Engagement of resisting hostile forces.
Controlling and guiding non-combatants to the manned
force.
Conforming to rules of engagement.
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Phase I of the program would involve demonstration of semi-
autonomous systems in the 2003 to 2008 timeframe, at a cost of $150
million annually. The concept would be to conduct platoon sided, urban
assault in a free-fire zone. The Phase II demonstration, occurring from
2008 to 2012 at a cost of $100 million annually, would involve conduct of
a company-sized operation. This part of the program would expand both
the size and the operational requirements of the unmanned force.
5. MISSILE DEFENSE _________________________________
Deployed U.S. military forces and the U.S. homeland face a genuine
threat from missile attack. Types of missile threats include surface-to-air,
air-to-air, and surface-to-surface missiles as well as long-range cruise
missiles and ballistic missiles. These missiles could be launched against
deployed U.S. forces and/or the homeland to attack the full array of U.S.
personnel and assets, including not only U.S. domestic and overseas fixed
installations, air and seaports, command and communication facilities, and
logistics centers but also U.S. urban centers, transportation networks,
industrial complexes and other facilities of value.
The United States has made a major investment in national and theater
ballistic missile defense over the past two decades. This effort has yet to
yield a deployable system, although several systems seem to be near
deployment today. The difficulties associated with missile defense are
well known. Current systems depend on uncertain capability to
discriminate real targets from decoys and debris as well as the challenging
technique of hit to kill. They also employ either very sophisticated and
expensive ground-based interceptors or relatively inefficient airborne or
ground-based chemical lasers.
Existing approaches cannot adequately defend against the threat of
cruise and ballistic missiles at all ranges. The cost of effective defenses,
the horizon limitations of ground-based systems, and the difficulty of
achieving confidence in discrimination approaches all suggest that a better
solution needs to be found.
One technology with the potential to address the limitations of systems
currently in development is the use of high-power electrically powered
lasers. These devices could be particularly applicable to theater missile
defense against relatively short-range threats.
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6. AFFORDABLE
PRECISION MUNITIONS_______________________________
Recent warfighting experience highlights the importance of precision
and low-collateral-damage engagement. This phenomenon has evolved
since Desert Storm and today represents one of the most demanding
requirements placed on the U.S. warfighting infrastructure. Precision
weapons are often difficult to handle, difficult to employ, and costly.
Further, many of the target-designation and guidance systems employed
have inherent limitations, and many are susceptible to jamming or
countermeasures. Todays systems also lack all-weather capability, which
severely limits utility. Moreover, the effects are often not scalable.
Existing precision weapons are generally delivered only by air, and other
ground and naval options are needed.
The trend toward precision and effects-based operations will likely
continue. Extended-range engagement, employing precision munitions,
will be a preferred means in all warfare regimes. Precision will need to be
available to tactical forcesin the air, on land, and at sea. Precision
munitions will replace unguided munitions for almost all targets. In the
future, selective warhead effects will be needed, so that the effects can be
tailored to the characteristics of the target. These systems will need to be
capable of delivery very close to U.S. forces or to non-combatants.
Finally, they will need to employ cost-effective munitions that can be used
to engage discrete targets down to individual enemy soldiers
The Department of Defense has developed precision systems, thus far,
with an emphasis on performance over cost. New technology is needed to
make these systems more affordable. Technological opportunities include
New energetic materials for propulsion and warheads.
Multi-mode warhead technologies to reduce the need for
multiple weapon types.
Jam-proof, redundant, autonomous guidance.
Adaptive, post-launch target insertion.
Lower cost, which facilitates large-scale production.
In developing new approaches, it will be possible to leverage
commercial technology such as inexpensive commercial sensor materials,
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low-cost, producible, micro-electro-mechanical technology for guidance,
and nanomaterials for very lightweight structures.
Vulnerability and Risk
The availability of rapidly developing commercial technology and
adaptability of potential adversaries creates unknown but inevitable
opportunities for unexpected counters to existing U.S. precision means.
The only response is continuous improvements to weaponry.
A number of potential vulnerabilities exist. Total reliance on precision
can lead to large-sector failuresthe result of enemy counters such as
GPS jamming. Unforeseen countermeasures can eliminate the
effectiveness of some weapons. Sensor and communication network and
information infrastructures provide an opportunity for indirect attacks on
the precision weapon architecture. In the future, adversaries may present a
proliferation of credible targets beyond the capacity of the precision
weapon inventory. Finally, the time to engageinvolving processing,
prioritizing, time of flight, number of launchers, and rate of
engagementlimits the number of engagements possible prior to closure
of forces.
Goals and Approach
Tremendous benefit can be realized through modest investment to
leverage military and commercial efforts. It is important to focus on
design for affordability, ease of handling, and employment. A
recommended program should include:
Implementing the recommendations of the 2001 Defense
Science Board Summer Study on Precision Targeting.
Structuring a tri-Service technology program to reduce the
cost and improve the flexibility, adaptability, and robustness
of precision munitions.
Pursuing a mix of military and commercial technologies as
described above.
Developing a suite of technologies available for integration
into munitions as soon as available.
The annual funding required for such an effort is estimated at $50
million.
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7. ENHANCED HUMAN
PERFORMANCE _____________________________________
Joint Vision 2020 envisions new and more demanding missions
achieved with highly sophisticated equipment. Technology will equip the
armed forces with weapons systems capable of sustained, round-the-clock
operations. The people who man these systems must be able to keep pace.
Military tasks will increase in complexity. It is estimated that an
increasing number of the Armys basic tasks for its Future Combat
Systems will be very complex. These tasks will have to be accomplished
by fewer people with far less supervision in tomorrows extended
battlefield. There will also be new tasks to accomplish. Some of the non-
traditional special operations missions will require non-traditional skills
for success. Despite these increasing demands, future recruits will be
much like those of today in terms of skill, knowledge, and attributes.
The armed forces are expected to continue using current instruments to
measure skills, knowledge, and attributesand many of these tools are
very crude. These instruments are not fine-tuned to measure some of the
requirements for information-age weapons systems. They also do not
adequately measure the skills, knowledge, and attributes of people with
less advantageous educational backgrounds and who do not speak English
as a principal language. DoD definitely needs more sophisticated and
technologically advanced testing instruments and training capabilities to
properly measure, assign, and prepare people.
The Department also needs to use science and technology to help
improve performance and to enhance the ability of humans to operate
effectively on the battlefield. Acceptable methods of sustaining peak
performance, fighting fatigue, coping with little or no sleep, and coping
with stress must be developed.
Science and technology can assist the DoD in identifying and
preparing superior fighting men and women by identifying and measuring
the skills, knowledge, and attributes that are essential for success on the
battlefield. This task is not equivalent to selecting world-class athletes, but
there are similarities. Physical strength and endurance will be required for
many tasks but not for all. Personality profiles can identify those who will
be successful on an unstructured battlefield. Certainly confidence,
functional intelligence, and an indomitable will characterize many
successful warriors. Such traits can be measured, but not with todays
tools.
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Technology can be used to minimize combat fatigue and the
requirements for sleep, minimize the adverse effects of stress, and better
tolerate physical demands and heat. Heightened visual acuity, enhanced
night vision, widened hearing thresholds, and an expanded range of
detectible audio frequencies will improve situational awareness. Decision-
making aids and personal virtual assistants will enhance cognitive skills.
With more capable operators, U.S. weapons systems can be used to the
limit of their capability parameters and designed in a manner consistent
with improved human performance.
Technological Opportunities
Modern medical science has developed remarkable new techniques to
restore disabled functionality. Sports medicine has produced superior
athletes. Many of these same approaches can be used to enhance normal
functionality. Promising new techniques include cognitive psychology,
cell signaling and regulation, implants, artificial organs, and
pharmacology. These technologies can lead to greater performance and
reduced casualties.
The task force believes that these techniques will enable the United
States to field more effective humans with increased strength, reflexes,
alertness, memory, sensory perceptions, cognitive abilities, and resistance
to temperature extremes and motion sickness. Science and technology
will help to decrease and regulate sleep requirements, caloric intake,
fatigue, sensitivity to pain and counter productive stress reactions, and
serious injuries.
One simple, but remarkable opportunity has involved cooling the core
body temperature in order to dramatically increase endurance.
17
In one
study, regular cooling of the core body resulted in a 200 percent increase
in the number of pull-ups performed per day over a series of days versus
an 80 percent increase achieved under normal conditions. This research
provides considerable insight into ways of increasing human physical
strength that could have specific battlefield applications. Given the high
payoff for using such techniques with special operations forces, for
example, the task force supports further research in this area at an
estimated $30 million per year.
Vulnerability and Risk
Initiatives to enhance human performance have a mixed history of
success and a perception by the general public and in the Congress of

17
Further detail on this example can be found in Chapter III.
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secretive and abusive applications. Invasive procedures such as implants
and administration of drugs are particularly sensitive subjects. The DoD
should limit its efforts to safe, reversible techniques for enhancing human
performance that are generally acceptable to our society.
Care must be taken to be both conservative and open in pursuing these
initiatives. Unforeseen consequences must be anticipated and addressed.
Even though this area is sensitive and subject to understandable scrutiny, it
should be investigated in order to enhance military capabilities. The
United States should also be concerned that potential opponents will
exploit science to create weapons systems and superior performing people
to oppose U.S. forces.
Goals and Approach
For the near term, S&T initiatives for enhancing human performance
should continue to focus on adding hardware to enhance the performance
of humans. The Services have programs that are addressing brain/machine
interface, better infrared goggles, hearing enhancers, sonar and
echolocation capabilities, and health monitors.
In the long term, DoD should approach physiological and
psychological enhancements. The possibilities include a wide range of
areas to include cochlear implants, retinal implants, implanted
micromonitor and microtracking devices such as virtual retinal displays
and in-ear language translators, supplements to food and drink, and
advanced skills, knowledge, and attitudes assessment and selection tools.
8. RAPID DEPLOYMENT ______________________________
The U.S. military is often required to deliver large amounts of
equipment to distant places to support the national policy of carrying the
fight to the enemy. Airlift is used to carry the materiel needed early in a
mission, if it is light enough and can fit within the various transport
aircraft. The majority of needed materiel is carried by sealift.
Approximately 95 percent of the materiel used in Desert Shield and Desert
Storm arrived by sea and at a pace that necessitated a lot of time to build
up the force. Even a decade later, current air and sealift transport cannot
move large forces and materiel to a distant crisis in less than weeks or
monthsalthough limited forces can be deployed more quickly.
The vision for the future assumes that access needs to be achieved very
quickly and that forces and materiel need to be assembled and supported
quickly. This speed can be accomplished by a combined approach of: (a)
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increasing the speed of ships that carry the heavy and bulky materiel, (b)
increasing the volume and weight that can be carried by airlift, and (c)
developing ground-force systems that are sufficiently lightweight to be
carried by aircraft. Improvements in all of these areas should be pursued.
Future concepts for more rapid deployment and employment
capabilities involve three potential thrusts.
Fast Sealift. Fast-sealift concepts can be supported by a dual
approach of reducing drag by various means and increasing propulsive
efficiency. The former results in much higher speed at todays
thermodynamic efficiency (resulting in an increase in range), the latter in
additional range or carrying capacity.
High-Capacity Airlift. Airlift concepts trade the difficulties of
logistics over the shore with the need for airports in which to land and
off-load. Lighter-than-air aircraft have an advantage in that the
requirement for field terminal facilities is minimal and close to the front
(though visible and potentially vulnerable). However, these aircraft are
dependent on low wind speeds for tactical off-loading and carry limited
payloads (less than 5-10 percent of that carried by an average ship). Other
airlift options include developing a large fleet of new short takeoff and
land tactical aircraft.
Light-Weight Force. The Army and DARPA are pursuing a major
initiative to develop the Future Combat System (FCS) to drastically reduce
the weight the Army must carry to the front. C-130s are the mainstay of
DoDs tactical lift, and the FCS is being designed to use the long
remaining life of these aircraft.
Sealift Technology. Fast sealift will be possible when effective lift-to-
drag is substantially improved. Ship drag is primarily made up of two
componentswave drag and friction drag. Wave drag is entirely due to
the form of the hull and in particular due to the beam of the ship. Friction
drag is directly related to turbulence, and therefore not easily controlled.
Both must be addressed, and in both cases improved propulsion is part of
the solution.
Eliminating wave drag requires that the ship have minimum
interaction with the surface of the ocean, which implies either deeply
submerged buoyancy connected to a boxy hull by thin struts (as in Small
Waterplane Area Twin Hull ships) or deeply submerged lift-generating
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surfaces connected to the hull by thin struts (as in hydrofoils). Other
configurations are being explored as well. Reduction of friction drag is
possible by lubricating the interface between the hull and the water.
Lubricants that show promise include microbubbles, polymers (some
specially designed for the purpose), and supercavitation.
If, in addition, using higher energy density fuels, such as hydrogen,
and more efficient thermal energy conversion methods, such as fuel cells,
increases thermodynamic efficiency, additional range or payload becomes
available.
Airlift Technology. Delivering materiel near the front requires the
ability to use undeveloped terrain, which translates into exploitation of
short-takeoff-and-landing, tilt-wing, and tilt-rotor technologies. For
strategic airlift high-capacity designs have been studied to the point where
additional S&T investment is required to provide proof-of-principle
demonstrations. Partially buoyant concepts offer the potential to provide
high-capacity airlift without the requirement of large, fixed runways.
While these technologies have been developed to some extent, additional
performance is likely to be required. Industry has developed design
concepts that can meet future needs, but S&T funding is needed to
demonstrate the practicality and utility of these concepts.
Ground-Force Technology. Technologies required to develop a light-
weight force include: advanced, integrated C4ISR systems and
applications; unmanned systems; integrated survivability suites; extended-
range, precision munitions technology; and hybrid electric propulsion.
The Army is moving very aggressively to field the first operational
generation of these technologies in the FCS program.
Preparing a access denial capability is in some ways easier than
building a capability to attack. An adversary can concentrate resources to
build such a capability. In addition, the speed with which technology may
proliferate makes it possible that systems, concepts, and technologies that
deny access can outpace the counterpart developments in deployment of
offensive capability. Commercially available technologies, with military
application, may be used by smaller nations to develop access denial
capabilities.
Other challenges are associated with developing more rapid
deployment capabilities. First, sealift must be complemented by rapid
loading and off-loading technology, including over-the-beach capabilities.
The cost of airlift could be prohibitive. The survivability goals for light
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ground forces are challenging and may not be achieved as desired, or may
be easily countered by responsive threats.
Goals and Approach
Fast Sealift. Hulls designed for wave-drag reduction need to be
explored in a consistent way that includes known forms and hopefully
provides analytical avenues to extend the range of options. New forms
identified by this process need to be tested, probably in traditional ways at
existing facilities.
The goal for friction drag is an order-of-magnitude reduction. The
least expensive way to obtain the capability to perform the required tests is
to refurbish the Detroit Dam facility, which is estimated to cost
approximately $10 million. The Office of Naval Research has declared
strong interest in supporting research at such a facility at about $3 to 4
million per year. In addition, several universities with interest in fluid
mechanics have offered to prepare work packages for sponsored research.
An investment of $3 to 4 million per year for four to five years after the
facility becomes available will support great advances in this area.
Advanced Airlift. Major aerospace contractors have developed
designs for both advanced tactical and strategic transport. While
innovative, these designs are not long-term technologies. A decision to
pursue either one or both of these designs depends on a consensus in the
Department of Defense about the need for and priority of advanced
tactical and strategic airlift.
Lightweight Force. FCS is a multi-faceted program, which the Army
seems to be fully committed to and investing in heavily. Continued S&T
investments beyond the first generation of FCS will be needed to maintain
its performance and address threats to the survivability of light vehicles.
9. GLOBAL EFFECTS__________________________________
The global strategic environment has changed dramaticallya result
of globalization, the information revolution, revolutionary technological
developments, the decline of nation state power, and proliferation of
asymmetric threats. To deal with this altered world, a new conceptual
approach called global effects has been developed. The implementing
process for this new approach is effects-based operations, which focuses
on planning, assessing, and executing military activities based on the
effects that they produce rather than the destruction of individual targets or
even the objectives they deal with.
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This new approach is necessary in order to deal more effectively with
the diverse set of threats facing the United States. Such threats are
frequently asymmetric and covert and are difficult to trace or deter. As the
tragic events of September 11 demonstrated, the United States itself is a
vulnerable target for terrorist attacks. The U.S. military must now provide
needed capabilities to defend the homeland and to maintain forward
presence, and readiness to conduct power projection missions. The
general view is that the conditions of today will continue to be
characterized by limited wars fought with limited means for limited ends,
with low risk of military escalation in circumstances where the rules of
engagement are often uniquely crafted.
To confront asymmetric threats, the United States will increasingly
rely on the rapid and precise application of power through a combination
of military and non-military (such as diplomatic or economic) means.
Objectives will be broad, ranging from manipulating knowledge and
perception to the traditional task of seizing territory. Warfighters will
increasingly rely on agile, flexible, and decisive use of force, rather than
overwhelming massing of forces. Widely dispersed combatants will look
to leverage the unprecedented "instantaneity" of modern war to seize the
initiative and better inflict strategic and operational-level surprise.
An additional aspect of the new situation to appreciate is that
asymmetric situations can arise quickly, requiring almost immediate
response anywhere on the globe. The United States must be able to act
promptly in order to quickly set the conditions of a conflict before they
become too difficult to change, thereby risking the situation developing
into a protracted, indecisive first phase of a contingency. Such
responsiveness not only implies global reach but also global sustainability
to bring about prompt fulfillment of U.S. political objectives and
expectations.
The Concept
Global effectsthe ability to defeat any adversary using effects-based
operations, anywhere around the globe, at any point on the spectrum of
conflictwill be crucial to warfighting success in this environment.
Three key capabilities are essential to producing global effects: the ability
of air and space forces to operate routinely and simultaneously across
strategic, operational, and tactical levels of warfighting; the ability to use
decisive force; and information dominance. Global effects are key to
achieving the full-spectrum dominance articulated in Joint Vision 2020.
The effects-based operations process requires special tools and task-
organized units that take as input the Commanders Intent and produce
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output-oriented, effects-based courses of action to achieve the desired
military effects for a given mission, including quantified estimates as to
the likelihood of achieving the desired effects for each course of action.
The process is also dynamic, continuing to assess and reassess the courses
of action during planning and execution to optimize the desired military
outcome.
Linking New Concepts to Future Capabilities
To be successful, the global-effects approach requires continued
development of joint air and space capabilities. Joint air and space power
provides a perspective that is global, regional, and local in scope providing
rapid target recognition and re-strike capabilities in all operating regimes.
The desired objective is simultaneous execution of joint air and space
power at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of warfighting. The
net intent is to achieve the outcome desired by overwhelming the
opponent with multiple attacks against hundreds of targets at once
limiting the freedom of action of that opponent.
It will be necessary to develop new operational, organizational, and
technological concepts, including Joint/Combined Air and Space
Operations Centers configured and equipped to function as complete
command-and-control weapon systems. The Joint/Combined Air
Operations Center will direct air campaigns and integrate air and space
operations across the spectrum of conflict. Leveraging these capabilities,
joint/combined air and space assets can be seamlessly integrated, ensuring
information superiority throughout the battlespacecrucial to achieving
global effectsand thereby providing U.S. forces with a distinct
advantage at any level of warfare.
Capabilities to achieve information superiority include improved data
collection, analysis, and fusion; real-time communications (to include
bypass capabilities direct to shooters); remote sensing capabilities that
are networked and internetted for real-time exploitation; time-critical
target acquisition; effective fire control; and improved timing and
guidance functions for military systems. Through horizontal integration,
advanced surveillance and information management technologies will give
warfighters vastly improved local, regional and theater situational
awareness as well as the ability to act decisively in real time. The
eventual goal is the ability to find, fix, track, and potentially attack any
target on the surface of the planet at any time of the day. Flexible
targeting will permit air- and space-based systems to change their target
vectors en route through space-based communications.
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A natural corollary of information superiority is a materially improved
capability to provide integrated intelligence to users commensurate with
their time line demands. In this integrated conceptual context, all-weather
intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets will monitor
adversary actions; identify, locate, and track targets and threats; and
appropriately task, process, exploit, and disseminate the required
intelligence directly to users, including shooters where appropriate.
Accurate and timely intelligence will ensure predictive battlespace
awareness, by providing decision makers with actionable information
that gives them a proactive awareness of unfolding battlespace events
including likely adversary courses of action.
One emerging near-term expectation is much greater use of low-
observable and standoff systems to provide access to high-risk or denied
battlespace in order to identify and defeat adversary capabilities. These
assets will complement other joint air- and space-power assets and must
be able to rapidly deploy directly from CONUS and forward-based home
stations with little or no warning. They must be able to operate as an
integral element in the overall information collection, assessment, and
distribution system.
Successful implementation of the global effects concept will depend
heavily on advancements in technology, particularly seamless integration
of information and intelligence inputs as well as maintenance of
operational confidence in the quality, accuracy and timeliness of the
various products and capabilities provided to leaders, planners and
operators. Key among the needed technology advancements are
Incorporating and integrating new sensor technology into the
Global Information Grid.
Determining the best mix and distribution of
complementary sensors among ground, sea, air, and space
platforms.
Maintaining trust in the information infrastructure, the
Global Information Grid, by insuring its reliable protection
against intrusion, exploitation, corruption or disruption
Operating Joint/Combined Air and Space Operations Centers
as weapon systems.
Sensor Technology and Mix. Advances in sensor technology will
enable U.S. forces to further exploit and manage the battlespace. In the
Chapter II.

89
future, information supplied by space-based radar and multispectral
imagery sensors will need to be optimally incorporated and integrated into
the existing constellation of ground-, sea-, air- and space-based C4ISR
assets. Data from new and existing sources and sensors must be vetted
and seamlessly merged into information provided to decision-makers, at
all levels, in near real time. These new information resources and sensors
also have to be evaluated to determine whether their best contribution to
predictive battlespace awareness is from ground, air, or space platforms,
or a combination of platforms. U.S. forces should then be able to
maximize global effects operations while minimizing resource
vulnerabilities.
Information Protection. One of the most pressing issues in the
Information Age is protecting, managing, and ensuring the integrity of
information while at the same time correlating, fusing, managing, and
turning information into reliable, actionable knowledge. This challenge
includes finding workable and secure means to readily share battlespace
information with allies and coalition partners, some of whom may become
adversaries in the next conflict. To this end, the Services must carefully
balance the need to share information with the need to protect it.
Command and Control: A Weapons System. The ability to operate
Joint/Combined Air Operations Centers as command and control weapon
systems will be difficult to achieve. The many pieces to this weapon
system need to be fully integrated to work most effectively in support of
global-effects operations. Currently information comes from legacy,
stove-piped systems that need to be networked together. Future forces
will rely on seamless information sharing among joint, service, and
coalition systems. In the interim, the information technology hardware,
software, and corresponding processes that make up the Global
Information Grid will continue to evolve and change.
By leveraging new operational, organizational, and technological
concepts to better exploit a global-effects strategy, U.S. forces will be able
to improve their unique asymmetric advantage and dominate the changing
global security environment.
S&T AND OPERATIONAL
INTERFACE
Throughout the process of identifying high-priority military needs, the
need to strengthen the relationship between the operational and S&T
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communities became increasingly apparent to the task force. Today, the
relationship between these two communities is far from satisfactory. They
lack a strong, continuous, two-way exchange of ideas and information on
technical constraints and relative operational priorities. Because of the
accelerated pace of technology, operators must increasingly rely on others
for technology insights. Technologists must listen carefully to feedback
about real operational insights and priorities. The level of dialogue on
technical opportunity and operational potential is currently inadequate.
To the extent that communication does exist, it suffers in a number of
ways. On the one hand, the operational community tends to follow a
policy of benign neglect toward S&T investment until specific capabilities
are needed. Then the operational community tends to pose arbitrary and
often unrealistic packages of performance objectivesas though
technology is available on demand without regard to the cost or realism
of the technical parameters. On the other hand, the existing S&T
community tends to take a broad, distributed approach to resource
allocation, with vested interests dividing up the pie over the spectrum of
technologies and applications. The result is institutional inertia in the
pursuit of technologyand in the allocation of technology investments
without careful reference to its cost benefit or to its operational utility and
priority.
Neither situation is beneficial to DoD. Both lead to inefficient
resource allocation and inertia in the system. They also result in delays in
the efficient transition of valuable technology to the warfighter. Joint
needs in particular are short-changed because of the lack of a strong joint
voice in S&T investment allocation process.
These observations are not directed at any particular organization or
individual. While the Department does not suffer from these problems
across-the-board, they are sufficiently widespread to warrant serious
consideration and corrective action. Human nature, organizational
structures, and differing perspectives essentially explain the current
relationship between the S&T and operational communities. The issue is
not blame; it is creating a more effective system.
IMPROVING OPERATIONAL
AND S&T INTERACTION______________________________
A conceptual solution, consistent with current management approaches
in the formal acquisition process, could help to improve deficiencies in the
S&T system. Figure 2-10depicting the double helixportrays the type
of collaborative, interactive model for prioritizing S&T research and
Chapter II.

91
investment that is both desirable and possible. The concept starts with the
assumption that both the operational and S&T communities have much to
learn. They have much to learn about technology and about operations
and about the interactions of the two. These learning processes are not
independent, but are interwoven as the figure portrays. As both
communities learn they inform each other and accelerate the entire
process. At appropriate points, based on technical opportunity and
operational insights, technology is transitioned to development and
production.
Figure 2-10. The Double Helix Model

The dialogue and relationship imagined in this model demonstrate
both dependency and support between the two communities. The model
offers a structure that is stronger and allows operation and technical
concepts to mature more quickly because of a higher degree of interaction
and information exchange. If implemented, this approach could make a
significant difference in the productivity of the Departments S&T effort.
For the S&T community to respond intelligently to user needs and to
understand the users perspective and priorities, and for the user
community to intelligently consider and respond to the limitations and
opportunities S&T can provide, there needs to be a transformation in how
the two communities interact. Without a transformation in this
relationship, transformation of the nations warfighting capabilities will be
hampered.
Increasing operational concept and
requirement maturity
Increasing technical maturity and
design specificity
Near continuous interaction
between S&T and operational
communities
Increasing operational concept and
requirement maturity
Increasing technical maturity and
design specificity
Near continuous interaction
between S&T and operational
communities
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The relationship that must evolve is one of constructive cooperation,
which involves a great deal of listening on the part of each community.
As the S&T process moves forward, there needs to be a continuous
exchange of information and ideas. As new technologies emerge or fail to
materialize, the operational implications must be thoroughly evaluated and
priorities changed accordingly.
A double helix model will allow the S&T and operational communities
to increase their understanding of each others worlds through continuous
interaction. As knowledge increases, both operationally and technically,
decisions to transition new technologies to development and production
can be intelligently based on realistic expectations and sound operational
concepts. This double helix is not characterized by rigid a priori
requirements or by visions of technology independent of operational
relevance. Rather, it is characterized by a collaborative search for better
technology and more innovative ways to use it.
There are cultural and bureaucratic obstacles to better operational and
S&T cooperation. The long-term nature of S&T relative to the normal
operational timeframe of interest is an obstacle. So too is the tendency to
approve operational requirements at a high level, thus making it difficult
or impossible for lower-level individuals to make changes based on new
information. Most importantly, there is the attitude often encountered in
both communities that it knows best, either about technology or about
operations, and should therefore proceed independently to either set
operational goals or to define S&T program objectives.
The task force believes the following recommendation can help to
institutionalize this cooperative concept.
CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
This section summarizes the recommendations for science and
technology investment priorities and for improving the relationship
between the operational and S&T communities. They support the broad
recommendations presented in the previous chapter.
INVESTMENT PRIORITIES _____________________________
To attain the operational visions being pursued by the military
Services, S&T efforts should be focused on high-payoff goals. The
Chapter II.

93
military Services and the Joint Staff have operational visions of future
warfare. In general, these visions include a networked, highly lethal, and
agile force in which multiple capabilities are integrated using modern
communications and computing. In addition to variations on or
adaptations of some commercial technologies, these visions depend on the
development of enabling technology that is uniquely military or for which
commercial applications are limited.
While the commercial industrial base will provide some of the needed
technology, much of it must come from DoD investments. Yet, DoD
technology programs tend to be broad and comprehensive. As a result, the
future capabilities required by combatant commanders and embedded in
the various Service and joint concepts cannot be realized unless DoD
focuses its technology development on those areas offering the greatest
potential for transformational change in line with envisioned future war-
fighting concepts.
Recommendation: The Department needs to focus its investment
priorities on the nine priority areas below. These nine areas
should be given priority for investment either because they
represent the highest payoff areas or because they are associated
with high-risk threats. The nine areas are
Defending against biological warfare.
Finding and correctly identifying difficult targets.
Making timely, accurate decisions.
Enabling high-risk operations.
Missile defense.
Affordable precision munitions.
Enhanced human performance.
Rapid deployment.
Achieving global effects.
In the view of the task force, S&T resources could be focused on these
areas largely by restructuring existing efforts. Additional funding would
of course be desirable, as was discussed in this and in the previous
chapter.
Recommendation: Because of its potentially devastating effect
and likelihood of employment, biological warfare defense
deserves special emphasis.
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The potential threat from biological agents, particularly from terrorist
attack, but also as part of an access denial strategy, is devastating in its
consequences. Much could be accomplished in this area, and the task
force recommends a major effort to address all aspects of this problem, as
previously outlined.
Recommendation: When taken together, four other areas have
the potential to provide fundamental transformation to support
emerging concepts of operations and warfare. These are:
finding difficult targets, making timely and accurate decisions,
enabling high-risk operations, and developing affordable
precision munitions.
These four areas represent a suite of transformational technologies.
The combined ability to find difficult targets, make rapid accurate
decisions regarding engagement, and conduct those engagements in high-
risk areas with efficient affordable munitions will transform warfare.
Even though each Service has a somewhat different implementation in
mind, the net effect and the suite of capabilities envisioned are similar.
The Joint Staff properly captured this combination of capabilities in Joint
Vision 2020. The technologies that would support this suite of capabilities
have high synergy, both within the set and across Service applications.
The task force recommends that the Department manage these
technologies as a set of interrelated capabilities.
S&T AND OPERATIONAL
RELATIONSHIP _____________________________________
Transformation of the interactions between the operational and
technical communities is essential to transformation in general. The
essence of this relationship must be active, constructive cooperation
throughout the research and concept exploration processes. A double-
helix model of spiral development would provide the basis for a successful
process.
Recommendation: The operational communitiesthe Services
and the Joint Staffshould each appoint a single senior official
as an interface to the S&T community.
The authority of this official is critical for success. This official
should be able to set operational priorities and minimum thresholds to
drive S&T programs. The individual should understand and provide
guidance on cost constraints for new capabilities that would inform S&T
Chapter II.

95
leaders of the viability of proposed technologies for operational
applications. Finally and very importantly for transformation, that
individual should have the authority to decide what innovative operational
concepts are worthy of Service investment in experimentation to explore
the advantages and risks associated with new technology.
Focusing S&T investments on a set of high-priority areas and
improving the relationship between the S&T and operational communities,
will lead to successful transformation of the nations warfighting
capabilities.
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__________________________________ CHAPTER III
TECHNOLOGY

_________________________________________________ Chapter III. Technology

99
INTRODUCTION
18

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from
magic."
Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry into the Limits of the Possible
This chapter focuses on technological megatrends that span areas as
diverse as biotechnology, bionics, massive networked virtual
environments, nanotechnology, and quantum computing and the
opportunities they present for fundamental advancements for warfighting
and national security. To the military leaders who have the responsibility
of conducting current operations, implementing policies, and making
priorities for investment, these technology concepts often have the
tendency to elicit disbelief or, at the very least, intense skepticism. In
some cases this is due to a lack of perceived relevance to military
applications, and in other cases the time horizon looks to be so far away as
to make it too difficult to justify DoD investment.
The urgency of todays needs and shortfalls dominates many
investment discussions. However, it is important to make investments in
todays megatrends, because such investments capitalize on areas of
potentially explosive growth. Focused investment in emerging tech-
nologies can help DoD understand where and how new capabilities might
arise for the United States and, since these technologies will be available
globally, for our adversaries as well. These technologies also portend
major shifts in the mindset and talents of both future scientists and future
warriors, and thus are directly relevant to recruiting, training, and retaining
talent.
An underlying assumption of this report is that the acceleration in the
availability and globalization of advanced technology will continue into
the foreseeable future. Thus every military organizationand indeed,
every personwill be provided with unprecedented access to technology
and thus unprecedented offensive and defensive capabilities. One can
already catch a glimpse of what it means to live in such a world by
observing current trends in information technology. Cyber-security
incidents attract special attention because they reflect a basic fact about
our technology-rich world: individuals possess technology powerful

18
This chapter reflects the work of and was prepared by the Technology Panel of the 2001 DSB
Summer Study task force. The panel membership, along with the government advisors and
staff who contributed to this effort, is contained in Annex B.
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enough to disrupt basic computing infrastructure on a global scale. There
is no reason to expect this phenomenon to be limited to the information
technology arena; indeed, the trend is clearly present in many areas of
science and technology.
Another fundamental assumption of this report is that the technology
landscape is no longer controlled or even predominantly influenced by the
Department of Defense. The potential for rapid technological change
demands great agility in exploiting new technologies, as well as a constant
awareness of their potential impact on defense operations and policies.
Achieving such agility is likely to require more than an understanding of
science and technology; it almost certainly will require a change in the
mindset of the organization and a willingness to break the rules of how
the organization operates. If the nation fails to see an opportunity ahead of
its adversaries or rejects an opportunity too early, it may be surprised.
Indeed, the task force believes that a primary factor limiting the
Departments ability to become a technologically agile enterprise is that
imposed by the artificial line between technology and warfighting. Modest
progress has been made in experimentation and rapid prototyping
methodologies, but the incentive structures are misaligned, resulting in
mistrust, misplaced priorities, and missed opportunities in development. In
a nutshell, DoD has chief executive officers (CEOs), but lack real chief
technology officers (CTOs)a role essentially relinquished to the
contractor base. As a result, the CEOs do not have a history of interactions
with trusted technologists and scientists who can advise them in decision
making at all levels, and they do not have sufficient technical training
themselves to do without. Similarly, too few technologists understand the
demands and fundamental limitations of the warfighting environment.
Thus, another overarching recommendation of this report is to improve the
quality, frequency, and content of the interactions of these two groups
throughout the Department of Defense.
This chapter begins with an overview of todays technology landscape,
providing a preview of the megatrends that form the basis for the main
recommendations. It then discusses four technology initiatives that the
task force believes have the right characteristics to form the basis for
sound investment. Broadly speaking, these projects lie in the areas of
biotechnology, information technology, sensors, and robotics. The chapter
then turns to a discussion of promising areas of more basic research,
specifically nanotechnology and quantum computing. Discussions of
several other important areas can be found in the annexes to this report;


101
topics include power systems, unmanned systems, and the novel concept
of a remoter force.
19

A well-balanced science and technology approach must both address
the needs of current operations and look well into the future. This chapter
focuses on the latteron technological opportunities, rather than currently
articulated needs. This perspective means that the concepts and
recommendations discussed herein are not all encompassing, nor are they
notional examples. Instead, this chapter focuses on a small number of
research areas that, if brought to fruition, would result in dramatic
improvements in warfighting capability as well as enhance the vitality of
DoDs science and technology enterprise.
THE TECHNOLOGY
LANDSCAPE TODAY
The nations future talent pool has grown up using computers
fearlessly; electronic gadgetry is part of their everyday lives. Social
interaction takes on many forms, many of which do not require physical
presencesuch as instant messaging, participation in massive virtual
environments, and collaborative information exchange. But the fact that
this new talent pool has substantially more access to information
technology is only part of todays technology landscape. Other areas of
science are also producing capabilities that might have been unimaginable
only a few years ago. Notably, many of these are not capabilities on which
the Department of Defense has set its sights for the future. But there is no
argument about their feasibilitythey are here now.
BIOTECHNOLOGY ____________________________________
On February 15, 2001, a 95%-complete draft of the human genome
was published in the journal Nature, with a 99.99%-complete sequence
projected for 2003, several years ahead of the originally envisioned
schedule. The grand vision and rapid pace of progress on the Human
Genome Project has helped spark an enormous shift of the worlds science
and engineering talent pool towards the life sciences. (See Figure 3-1.)
The combination of inspirational vision, an enormous talent pool, and
aggressive applications of advanced technology has led many scientists

19
Discussions on power systems, unmanned systems, and the remoter force can be found in
Appendix E, F, and G, respectively.
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and analysts to predict that the world is now entering into the era of the
life sciences. Indeed, the rate of progress in this field appears to be
accelerating rapidly, with applications to human life emerging on a daily
basis.
Figure 3-1. S&E Bachelors Degrees Awarded
Source: From the Higher Education General Information Survey and the Integrated
Postsecondary Education Data System.
Importantly, the ability to engineer devices on length scales
approaching the physical dimensions of biological construction has
created a host of new opportunities, just beginning to be realized. For
example, biomedical engineers have demonstrated the feasibility of
growing entire blood vessels on demand. Experiments are being conducted
to etch capillary-like grooves into silicon wafers, seed the grooves with
endothelial cells, and grow capillaries as small as 10-20 microns in
diameter, as illustrated in Figure 3-2. Some day, it might be possible to
grow complex organs such as artificial livers.
0
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40,000
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Engineering Physical Sciences Math/CS Life Sciences


103
Figure 3-2. Growing artificial livers.
Source: Technology Review, April 2001.
NANOTECHNOLOGY __________________________________
Equally startling is the recent progress in nanotechnology, particularly
in molecular-scale electronics. Today, the design and manufacture of
electronic components at the atomic scale is possible in the laboratory,
with companies such as Hewlett-Packard demonstrating molecular-scale
memories (shown in Figure 3-3) 10 times smaller than conventional
CMOS memories. Other demonstrations include an n-p-n nanowire
transistor that shows a high 16x gain and a resonant tunneling diode with
lower temperature on-off ratio greater than 1K. In university laboratories,
multi-transistor logic circuits at molecular scale are now being
demonstrated.
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Figure 3-3. An operating nanotube molecular memory.

Indeed, the concerns that researchers might never manage to link such
devices together into complex circuits, while still serious, diminished
significantly last year, leading Science magazine, for example, to name the
first complex molecular-scale circuits as the Breakthrough of 2001.
20

The full impact of such emerging technologies are possibly many years
away, but what these and other demonstrations show is the feasibility of
nanoscale computing devices that could have on the order of 10
10
gates but
consume less than 2W of power. If realized, such a capability would
represent a two order-of-magnitude improvement in density and an order-
of-magnitude improvement in power consumption. Such devices would
provide unprecedented computing power in small battery-operated devices
and provide computing power to launch scientific breakthroughs for
decades.
21

Besides molecular-scale electronics, nanotechnology also has the
potential to revolutionize materials engineering, leading someday to ultra-
high-strength lightweight materials, massive arrays of microsensors, and
ultra-sensitive chemical/biological warfare agent detectors.
UBIQUITOUS COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY ____________
Surrounding the technological innovation in almost all science and
engineering fields is an explosion in ubiquitous communications
technology. Today, digital data traffic exceeds voice traffic on global
telecommunications networks. Much of this progress is fueled by

20
Molecules Get Wired, Science, 294, pp 2442-2443.
21
Ibid.


105
commercial demand, which last year led private companies to lay more
than 60 million kilometers of fiber-optic cable and researchers to develop
new network switching technology that increases bandwidth from 135
megabits per second in 1983 to over 1.6 terabits per second in 2001.
Augmenting this high-bandwidth communications backbone is a
proliferation of access to wireless communications technologies, with over
490 million new mobile handsets sold last year, involving over 450
million cellular subscribers.
Today, in order to be competitive, most large organizations, including
the Department of Defense, find it necessary to exploit these dramatic
increases in communications capabilities. Interestingly, to do so, many
companies look to young people. Not only do young people represent the
emerging talent pool, but they are also the focal point for several key
future markets. For example, Nokia, a market leader in mobile wireless
handsets, uses children of ages 12 to 18 to study the usefulness and appeal
of communications features such as new modes for wireless instant
messaging.
On the cutting edge of these communications-enabled markets is
arguably the most robust information-technology sector, namely the online
entertainment industry. Last year, video gaming and online entertainment
companies grossed over $9 billion, an amount on par with (and actually
exceeding) the U.S. market for motion pictures and videos. Video games
and consoles continue to be one of the fastest-growing information
technology market sectors, and one of the few sectors whose demand for
increasing amounts of computing power continues to increase rapidly. As
such, the video game marketa market made up primarily of youths who
at age 18 have more than 1,500 hours of video gaming experiencedrives
the development of increasingly powerful graphics processors, and overall
is one of the most important drivers for the development of more powerful
computer processors.
In the realm of video games, the level of graphical and physical
fidelity has been improving steadily, to the point where professional pilots
of airplanes and racecars use games such as Microsoft Flight Simulator
and Psygnosis Formula 1 for both entertainment and training. However, a
recent development of potentially greater impact involves the rapid
emergence of massive multiplayer (MMP) environments such as Ultima II
Online, EverQuest, Lineage, World War II Online, Anarchy Online, and
others. These games allow a person to use the Internet to enter into a
massive virtual world, assume the identity of an avatar, and interact with
tens of thousands of other people through their avatars. Instead of focusing
purely on hand-eye coordination and reaction times, these games
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emphasize the collaborative development of self-organizing societies,
rapid development of tactics, and experience-based learning.
S&T INVESTMENT __________________________________
In contrast to the science and technology landscape of 40 years ago,
the Department of Defense is no longer the major customer for new
technologies in the commercial sector. Advanced technologies must be
marketable to a large and willing customer base in order to yield favorable
returns. The Department of Defense is neither, and the profits from R&D
contracts are not attractive enough to many commercial companies in the
absence of follow-on acquisitions.
Corporate investments in science and technology R&D dominate the
landscape. Microsoft Corporation spent over $2 billion on the
development of the Xbox video game console. Corporate investments in
nanotechnology are now approaching $1 billion. A single pharmaceutical
company, GlaxoSmithKline, reported a research and development budget
of nearly $4 billion in 2000, and it is expected to climb to approximately
$5 billion in 2002. Commercial research and development in information
technology is projected to exceed $50 billion in 2002. The top 20
industrial R&D spenders
22
had a combined budget of nearly $100 billion
in 2000; this is compared to approximately $40 billion for the entire DoD
research and development investment for the same year. While it is
sometimes argued that industrial R&D budgets are focused primarily on
near-term product development, this point is only partly valid. Both
private companies and the DoD are required to do a good deal of
development in their R&D programs. And, like DoD, about half of the top
20 industrial R&D spenders have a significant commitment to basic
research. For these companies, R&D budgets as a percentage of sales
range between 10 and 20 percent.
Significantly, foreign countries are increasingly at the vanguard of the
deployment of the latest technologies, most of which are developed in the
United States. For example, many developing countries leapfrog the
need for conventional wired networks by exploiting wireless technologies,
with the result that the wireless infrastructure outside of the United States
is often superior and more pervasive. In basic science, in what was once a
rare occurrence, Chinese scientists are now routinely publishing papers in
the journal Science. The most successful massive multiplayer game today,

22
Ford, General Motors, DaimlerChrysler, Matsushita, Lucent, Nortel, Siemens, Motorola,
Toyota, Sony, Hitachi, Ericsson, Pfizer, Cisco, IBM, Fujitsu, Microsoft, Nippon, Intel, Honda.
(GlaxoSmithKline is number 21 with an R&D budget of $3.7B in 2000.) Ref: Schonfeld &
Associates, Inc. R&D Ratios & Budgets.


107
called Lineage, is not even available in the United States, but only in
Korea and Taiwan. In fact, several market research firms estimate that
about 10 percent of the Korean population subscribes to at least one MMP
game, and over 4 percent to Lineage, to which about 110,000 Koreans log
in each night. Predictably, Korean teams have been dominant in the annual
worldwide video-gaming Olympiads.
REVITALIZING THE S&T ENTERPRISE____________________
It is in this fast-paced environment that the Department of Defense
must competefor talent, to set the pace, and to exploit explosive
technological changes and trends. As such, the S&T challenge for the
DoD is not purely a technical one, but also involves the management of
technological innovation. How can the Department do what is right for
near-term health, while simultaneously focusing adequate resources and
attention on potential disruptive technologies that ultimately could become
decisive factors in national defense? To find answers to such a question
requires a degree of nimbleness that may be lacking in some aspects of
science and technology strategy of todays Department of Defense.
The Department of Defense understands the importance of bringing
committed talent together and creating, through special management and
visionary leadership, a culture of innovation and a magnet for attracting
and retaining top talent. Some of the most astonishing science and
technology discoveries in history have been at the hands of great groups
working for the Department of Defense. The Manhattan Project and
various skunks works are but two examples. These achievements were
the result of individuals brought together with purpose, often against
conventional wisdom and the odds, to work on what to many might have
seemed impossible or foolish. But these endeavors were the works of
visionaries with a keen eye for military relevance. In each case, they were
handled outside the established order, working in the white spaces
outside the organizational chart and protectively buffered from the
mainstream.
The S&T projects discussed in the remainder of this chapter were
identified in part because of their visionary nature. They are visionary in
their importance to the nation and hopefully in their ability to recruit and
retain top talent in much the same way that focused visions such as the
Human Genome Project have attracted thousands of young scientists into
the life sciences. When it is approached properly, the main limitation in
hiring top people should be less an issue of pay or benefits than one of
creating the belief that they will be well used. Within todays DoD,
DARPA has a charter that is consistent with this goal, and thus it is
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already well-suited to managing some of the recommended projects. For
other projects, new organizational structures will likely be needed. In all
cases, the projects should consist of multiple people, technologists, and
operators who are given complete end-to-end responsibility with the
ability to engage in direct, intimate interaction, and experimentation.
BIOLOGICAL WARFARE DEFENSE:
PATHOGEN TO HIT
The threat of biological weapons arises in part from a decades-old
megatrend in the life sciences. New advances in molecular biology,
genetics, and related areas such as combinatorial chemistry have yielded
new discoveries in the treatment of disease, in the development of new
drugs, in agriculture, and in other fields. They have also yielded new
weapons in the hands of adversaries. Perhaps the single most significant
modern challenge to U.S. sovereignty is that created by the possibility of a
massive biological attack. It is a threat to the United States military, it
allies, and its homeland. Biological weapons can be delivered at the hands
of a few, and they present a small signature for which the United States
has ill-developed intelligence-gathering capability, against which
conventional concepts of deterrence are not necessarily effective, and for
which the nation has a limited response capability to contain the
consequences. The task force argues, as others have before, that the only
strategy is to broadly address all dimensions of defense from new
deterrence measures to new therapeutics. The Department of Defense
needs an integrated biological warfare defense program.
The Biological Defense study conducted by the Defense Science
Board and the Threat Reduction Advisory Committee made the following
conclusion: The present U.S. defensive effort will not effectively
counter the current threat [of biological warfare] and is hampered by an
absence of a vision of what is required lacks leadership and coherent
organizations. As discussed in Chapter 1, three DSB studies have made
recommendations for a DoD-wide strategy for bio-warfare defense. The
task force supports the recommendations of these studies to rapidly
increase defenses, including the conduct of near- and far-term S&T efforts
as well as the effective exploitation of low-hanging fruit such as the
stockpiling of vaccines and therapeutics. The recommendations need to be
implemented. In addition, the task force recommends the Department
embark on a new technology project pathogen-to-hit, also referred to as
Bug-to-Drug in 24 hours.


109
BACKGROUND AND
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE_____________________________
Interestingly, some of the earliest developments in biology were
rapidly embraced and developed in response to defense needs. In 1929
Alexander Fleming discovered that the growth of bacteria was inhibited in
the presence of penicillium molds.
23
A strong military need drove the
rapid practical development of large-scale production of this antibiotic for
use in the war effort. During the war, the American pharmaceutical
industry was given the task of producing penicillin on a large scale. With
the development of submerged cultures (as opposed to the surface cultures
used initially), large quantities of penicillin could be produced to meet the
demand created largely by the great numbers of wounded.
24
This
historical footnote aside, the Department has largely failed to exploit the
rapid developments in the life sciences, and as a result is behind in its
ability to combat the threat posed by these advances and to attract the
talent necessary to develop the needed capability.
In contrast, private investments in biotechnology and the life sciences
have grown, matured and evolved immensely since the first wave of
biotechnology entrepreneurs in the late 1970s. In 1980, the year in which
Genetics Institute and Amgen were founded, there was a total of
approximately $500 million invested in healthcare venture capital
compared to $5 billion in the year 2000.
25

Coincident with this growth in the life sciences, the end of the Cold
War created new opportunities for smaller and emerging powers to expand
their influence and doctrine. The Gulf War taught the world that fighting
the United States on its terms in formal military combat is futile. As a
result, these emerging powers (that is, both state and non-state/religious
terrorist organizations) have been considering, and to some extent
developing, biological weapons as part of an arsenal for use against the
United States and its allies.
Naturally occurring outbreaks of disease have wreaked havoc for
generations. Small pox caused some 400 million deaths in the first half of
the 20th century, and the 1918 flu pandemic caused 20 to 40 million
deaths, having swept the globe in just six months. Some U.S. cities
experienced more than 10,000 deaths per week, and overall 500,000
Americans died. People were quarantined; ignorance and fear reigned. The

23
In Quest of Tomorrows Medicines. Jrgen Drews. Springer, 1999.
24
Ibid.
25
Trends in Biotech Business Models: The More Things Change, the More They Stay the
Same. Bryan Roberts, Venrock Associates. The Biotechnology Club Network.
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110
effect of this pandemic was so profound that the average life expectancy in
the United States was depressed by more than 10 years. And in June of
last year in Ohio an outbreak of a non-contagious disease from a known
pathogen created a local panic and made national news. Three patients
were initially identified; the Center for Disease Control and state health
officials were 99.9 percent sure of the identity of the disease but could not
confirm it quickly. This situation resulted in the emergency transport of
antibiotics from three states and the administering of antibiotics to 37,000
people. Indeed, global infectious disease is biological warfare in the hands
of Mother Nature.
Whether the objectives of terrorism are regional or worldwide, as of
September 11, 2001 terrorism has escalated to using weapons of mass
destruction (e. g., U.S airlines) within the shores of the United States.
Important implications of this horrendous attack include terrorists
Have invaded CONUS.
Are willing to use weapons of mass destruction to cause
great loss of life.
Are willing to sacrifice the lives of their own to accomplish
such attacks.
Have the patience, experience, and resources to plan and
execute such attacks.
These revelations suggest additional, as yet unproven, thoughts that
such attacks may:
Only be the opening move of a larger war-by-terrorism
within the United States.
Extend beyond the United States to the territory of its allies.
Inspire other terrorist organizations into action.
Expand to include use of nuclear, biological, and chemical
weapons of mass destruction.
Terrorists have demonstrated the resources and capabilities to destroy
the World Trade Center and a part of the Pentagon; with this same level of
resources and capabilities, these (and other) organizations could
implement selected BW attacks. Also, the emergence of these hidden cells
means that the conventional thoughts about deterrence do not apply. The
potential for the use of BW in a large-scale terrorist activity against the
United States has never been greater.
BW has many features attractive for terrorists with the profile
described in the list above. Significantly, BW capability costs less to


111
acquire in time, facilities, and expertise than its nuclear analog. Further,
unlike nuclear technology, virtually all of the technical components,
including most pathogenic organisms, needed to develop a dangerous BW
infrastructure remain readily available through completely unclassified
literature and microbial collections. While some reports have questioned
the practical feasibility of biological weaponsciting the requirement for
large quantities of complex, specially formulated pathogens delivered by
cumbersome mechanisms as barriers to their usethese conclusions apply
primarily to tactical military situations. In the context of terrorism, these
basic limitations are not necessarily applicable.
Well-resourced BW terrorists, even in the absence of advanced
molecular biological expertise, have a menu of at least one hundred
naturally occurring microorganisms from which to select a wide array of
effects. These effects range from diseases with acute and rapidly fatal
results to those with slow, highly contagious and, hence, farther-reaching
effects. Furthermore, the targeting possibilities for generating terror within
a free society such as the United States are endless and only limited by
the terrorists creativity and desired objectives. One does not need to fly a
crop duster over the Washington, D.C. area to cause widespread disease
and panic. Clever application of small aerosol devices with appropriate
microbes in a stadium or an airport can provide desired effects, long after
the perpetrator is gone. The terrorist, unlike his military counterpart, does
not have to overcome his enemy to obtain his objective; rather, the
terrorist can accomplish his mission by inflicting almost any degree of
documented suffering to an unsuspecting populous, as long as a wide-
based perception is created that more is possible. This feature creates an
I-can-touch-you-anywhere-anyhow-anytime terror.
Nothing in this summary regarding BWs potential is new. However,
the tragic events of September 11, 2001, have demonstrated to the world
the resolve of at least one terrorist organization to inflict death and injury
on a massive scale against innocent people. With the moral barrier to such
destruction compromised, the task force believes that the willingness to
use BW, particularly as a weapon of terror, has increased.
TOWARDS A COMPREHENSIVE
BIOLOGICAL WARFARE DEFENSE _______________________
The 2001 DSB/TRAC Biological Defense Study, co-chaired by
George Whitesides and Josh Lederberg, outlined a vision for
comprehensive biological warfare defense. Importantly, the study
concluded that biological warfare defense was not too hard to counter
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and that both long-term and short-term actions would do much to mitigate
the threat. Several areas of emphasis were articulated in the DSB/TRAC
report, and that studys findings are firmly endorsed here. The nine
components of this strategy appear below:
1. Effective intelligence and awareness.
2. Capability for warning and characterizations of attacks.
3. Capability for vaccination against biological agents.
4. Widely available means of passive protection, including
masks and citadels.
5. Rapid, effective incident and crisis response.
6. Access to therapeutics to minimize casualties during an
event.
7. Capability to decontaminate and restore function.
8. Forensic capability to guide attribution, retribution and
deterrence.
9. International laws and treaties and methods of enforcing
them that prevent the development and use of biological
weapons.
An effort to unify these considerably broad efforts in a comprehensive
manner has not yet occurred within DoD. An integrated defense will
require, in addition to incremental and near-term efforts to harvest the
low-hanging fruit, the acceptance of bold challenges. The 2000 DSB
Task Force recommended the creation of an advanced diagnostics
capability, the Zebra Chip; the fundamental pathogen databases; and the
integrated epidemiological reporting system that accompanies it. The
Zebra Chip Project is itself an important technology initiative, as is the
project proposed below. It is vital, however, to recognize that the
implementation of this initiative is best considered as part of a broader and
unified effort, which would address every component of the proposed
system needed to deal with biological warfare.
THE CHALLENGE: BUG-TO-DRUG IN 24 HOURS___________
The task force asserts that biological weapons are weapons of terror
because the United States lacks adequate therapeutic responses. Further,
the ability to generate a therapeutic response and control the consequences
of an attack would be a deterrent. Figure 3-4 gives a schematic for the
drug development process, showing that the development of a new drug


113
takes approximately 10-15 years and costs on average $500 million. DoD
should undertake a technology initiative to compress key elements of this
process.
Figure 3-4. The drug development process

By 2005, the DoD should create the capability to compress the
pathogen-to-hit process from years to months. It should demonstrate this
ability by using intelligence reports on new BW agents to create hits
26

within a month of identification and to screen for therapeutics against
these new pathogens from existing antibiotics. Additionally, this
accelerated process should be used to create hits for the top 50 known BW
targets. As part of this effort, new approaches to compressing toxicity and
safety screening and manufacturing should be investigated.
By 2010, the DoD should create the capability to compress the
pathogen-to-hit process to weeks and the toxicity and safety screening
processes by a factor of ten. The manufacturing process should be
compressed by 50 percent and yield and shelf-life methods should be
improved 10-fold. Construction of large and dedicated manufacturing
facilities should be initiated based on improved methodologies.
By 2020, the DoD should create the capability to compress the overall
process from identification of a new pathogen to viable drug to 24 hours,
under emergency conditions. Manufacturing facilities should initiate
production, and the process for emergency manufacture should be brought
to within days or weeks.

26
A hit in the vernacular of the drug development process refers to an initial match between the
disease or pathogen target and the drug that elicits a favorable response at the target site. As an
example, this might be a particular chemical that interferes with a critical molecular signaling
pathway necessary to the survival of a virus. Additional steps are required to turn a hit into a
safe drug.
Pathogen
to Hit
Find & ID pathogen
Toxicity screening / Safety/Manufacturing
(ADMET/FDA trials)
FDA Approval /
Distribution
10 15 years, average cost $500M
Safe
Drug
Exists
Hit
i.e. drug candidate
Available
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The estimated cost of such a program is $100 million per year, and the
goals are 20-year goals. This project will necessarily require significant
collaborative efforts between industry, academic, and government
personnel. The collateral benefits and implications for world health are
staggering.
THE PROMISE OF AN
IMPROVED PROCESS _________________________________
Such a program cannot be postulated, without describing some of the
current advances that inspire such vision. Figure 3-5 illustrates some of the
exponential trends fueling the revolution in medicine and the life sciences.
Figure 3-5. Genomics and proteomics in the life sciences.

Within drug development itself, the process of generating hits has
decreased from between three and five years to between nine months and
three years in the last decade. This advance has been fueled primarily by
modern genomics and proteomics, which provide an abundance of targets
and data sets that decrease the time for target validation. Two examples
loom large:

100 organisms
sequenced
(June, 2001)
Genome discovered (1930s)
10
0
10
1
10
2
10
3
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
10
0
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
0
10
1
10
2
10
3
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
First
organism
sequenced
(glow worm) -
1998
Fruit fly (1999)
Human Genome
(Spring, 2001)
A Revolution A Revolution
in Medicine in Medicine
Gene chip (1994)
Protein chip (2000)
Genomi Genomi
Proteomi Proteomi
10
0
10
1
10
2
10
3
0
1
2
3
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Human
Proteome by
(2010?)
First Proteome Project (Tuberculosis)
Worldwide leading cause of adult death
No new drugs since 1963
Multi-drug resistant TB more common
With only 5% of the proteome completed,
done (2001) first new drug candidates in
nearly 40 years were identified.
100% of the proteome completed in
2005?


115
A mere 5 percent of the proteome for Tuberculosis resulted
in creation of the first new drugs to treat the disease in more
than 40 years.
A detailed understanding of protein structures resulted in the
development of the first drugs that inhibited AIDS.
Furthermore, the development of drugs that more tightly target key
molecular biological events shows the promise of dramatically reducing
toxicity and safety concerns. As an example, the development of Gleevec
27

for a rare form of leukemia (chronic myeloid leukemia) was designed to
attack key molecular pathways in the cancer cells themselves. The Food
and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Gleevec after only a 2.5-month
review of clinical data. A relatively small set of patient data was
submitted, but the data was so compelling and the disease so life-
threatening that the drug was rapidly approved for use.
Many commercial entities seek to further streamline the drug
discovery process through the use of high-throughput techniques for
genomics, proteomics, and cell-based assays; the development of protein-
folding predictions from first principles; and the computational
optimization of drug candidates. DoD should drive the processes that
industry, academia, and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) do not, to
include the building of reference databases for potential BW threat agents,
the design of FDA-specific clinical protocols for new BW therapies, and
the development of accelerated and high-yield manufacturing processes.
DoD should also seek to leverage its computation expertise to accelerate
first-principle approaches and in agile manufacturing, to build both a
research and a development bridge to the pharmaceutical industry, NIH,
Center for Disease Control, and FDA, and to serve as the systems
integrator for the accelerated approach described herein.
Recommendation: The DoD should increase S&T spending
in support of a comprehensive biological warfare defense
capability from $250M per year to $1B per year.
The DoD should undertake a project to dramatically reduce
the time from Bug-to-Drug with the objectives outlined
above. The cost of this program is approximately $200M per
year, and it should be considered a 20-year program.

27
Gleevec is a product of Novartis.
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NO PLACE TO HIDE:
MICROSENSOR NETWORKS
Recent experience in Bosnia and Kosovo has demonstrated the
capabilities of adaptive enemies and has indicated the extreme difficulty of
remotely targeting military vehicles and forces hidden under foliage, in
buildings, and in underground facilities. Such targets traditionally have
been pursued by ground troops who often suffer losses in the process.
Surveillance and reconnaissance systems, both present and planned,
are predominately based on active or passive electromagnetic remote
sensing from airborne or spaceborne platforms. These systems exhibit
significant problems providing critical surveillance and targeting data,
especially in real time. First, remote sensors perform inadequately in
certain environments, such as in urban canyons or under foliage. Second,
enemies can engage in camouflage, concealment, and deception by timing
activities to coincide with gaps in coverage or by masking or duplicating
the remotely sensed signatures. Third, many types of information cannot
be satisfactorily or cost-effectively obtained by remote sensing.
The Defense Science Board has discussed the technological
developments required to mitigate some of these shortcomings in previous
studies. One promising solution is to complement standoff sensors by
placing shorter-range sensors in the area of concern and to read out those
sensors remotely, permitting continuous sensing of a wide range of
signatures. Many interesting observables are present at close ranges, but
are difficult or impossible to sense remotely. They include
DC to mm-wave electromagnetic emissions.
Magnetic fields and magnetic anomaly detection.
Acoustic signatures, including Doppler shifts.
Chemical emissions: single substance detection to full
chemical analysis.
Biological agents: detection, quantification, or agent
identification.
Nuclear radiation.
Pressure and vibration sensing.
Air-flow sensing.
Short-wave ultraviolet emission.
Infrared emissions.


117
Imaging, object recognition, or image change detection.
Though close-in point sensors exist today, their utility has been
severely limited for several reasons. First and foremost, the power
consumption requirements of the sensors, combined with limitations in
battery technology, have resulted either in large, battery-dominated
sensors (such as those used in Vietnam), or in smaller sensors with very
limited functionality, transmission range, and mission lifetime. Limited-
range, dumb sensors do not provide wide-area coverage. The size, cost,
and performance of current sensors, combined with the difficulties in
emplacing them, have limited their use to small numbers in proximity of
high-value targets. In addition, the technology has not existed to create
very low-cost sensors or even those capable of sensing several
observables, such as chemical or biological agents; emerging technologies
promise to dramatically alter that situation. Finally, point sensors have
been viewed as either stand-alone devices or for use in locally controlled
clusters. An architecture that integrates these into a wide-area,
information-on-demand surveillance system has not been developed.
TECHNOLOGICAL OPPORTUNITIES ______________________
Advances in energy sources, microsystems technology, and
biotechnology promise low-cost, miniaturized sensors that could be cost-
effectively distributed over a theater of interest, providing real-time,
continuous, all weather, day-night surveillance. An enemy could not
practically evade such coverage. Key attributes of the proposed capability
are as follows:
Ability to measure a wide range of signatures, making
concealment and deception a very difficult problem for an
enemy and greatly reducing his mobility and agility.
Continuous real-time monitoring, with information
provided on demand through a wide-area network
controlled from overhead or terrestrially. Utilizing an
aircraft, or a space-based system employing a large-
aperture sparse-antenna array, the sensors can be
geolocated and polled to deliver their unique
identification and stored data. Alternatively, ground-based
networking options allow a secure, low-power
communications network with a robust connectivity and
low probability of detection. Forces operating in the area
could use this network. Because data delivery would
typically be in short bursts and the timing of transmissions
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would be remotely controlled by the user, major power
reductions and improvements in covertness could be
expected compared with present systems. Sensors could be
kept dormant until needed or commanded to report back
only if high-value events were detected.
Small-size and low-cost sensors (on the order of one cubic
inch and costing less than $10 each). Such sensors could be
dispensed in overwhelmingly large numbers (such as
100,000 sensors over a theater of operations), which would
not only enable wide-area coverage from what is essentially
a point sensor, but also make location and neutralization
very difficult for the enemy. Even less-expensive decoys
could further complicate detection and cleanup by an
enemy.
Covertness, which would be achieved through small size,
camouflage, mobility, and low-probability-of-detection
communication enabled by on-board intelligence.
However, depending on the application, the very use of
large numbers of sensors, coupled with extensive
intermixing of penny decoys, might obviate the need for
covertness by simply overwhelming the enemy with too
many sensors to pick up or destroy. A sensor survival rate
of as little as 20-30 percent could still provide the required
functionality.
Survivable systems, capable of long-duration operations.
Depending on the sensor type and intended application, and
particularly on advances made in power-supply technology,
conceivable operational periods of the network (not
necessarily of an individual sensor) range from months to
years.
Effective deployment and emplacement. Non-traditional
deploy-ment means may be usedsuch as crop dusting
or air burst, inadvertent transport into inaccessible areas
by the enemy (sensors clinging to vehicles or clothing), or
the sensors own robotic or biologically aided mobility.
Other means could be used as well, such as artillery
delivery and hand emplacement (sowing), either overtly by
troop units or covertly by operatives behind the lines.
Such a system could have covered Kosovo with sensors spaced
approximately every 30 meters, at a total cost of only several tens of
millions of dollars for the sensors. The data from these sensors, integrated


119
into a C4ISR system with other data acquired from more traditional
standoff sensors, would have provided a comprehensive view of the
battlefield, enemy capabilities, and enemy intentions. Of particular interest
is that such a sensor system would have the capability of gathering
information on weapons of mass destruction, of characterizing concealed
and hardened facilities, and of providing information on targets obscured
by foliage.
Achieving sensor system goals will require significant developments
in the overarching technology areas of energy, microsystems, and
biotechnology.
Table 3-3 captures the principal attributes required for a sensor
network and shows that an improvement of 10-to-100-fold is needed in
several of the technologies to make ubiquitous, inescapable, intrusive
sensing possible. Some key areas where research is needed are energy
sources, microsystems, and biotechnology.
Table 3-3. Technological Developments Needed for Close-in Sensors
Today Current
Technology
Trend
Needed
Advances
Key Technology
Area
Networked 2-10 100s 10-10,000x
increase in
number
Information tech.
Microsystems
Lifespan Hrs days Low-power
electronics +
energy extraction
=> 2 weeks
10-100x
increase
Microsystems
materials &
materials
Ensemble 4-5
physical
sensors
Polymer films for
chem sensing,
bio assays-on-
chip
10-20 bypes of
sensors:
physical, chem,
bio
Biotechnology,
materials, &
energy and
microsystems
Undetectable Coke-can-
shoe box
size: fixed
>1mm
3
seismic
sensor, 3D
packaging
10x decrease in
size intrusive
e.g.
biosentinels
Microsystems,
materials & energy
biotechnology
Affordable $1,000/sen
sor
~$5 MEMS
accelerometers
100x decrease Microsystems
Deployment Hand-
emplaced
Lighter, smaller
=> min shock
resistant,
aerodynamic
structures
UXV emplace,
high alt. Air
dropped, 100-
1000x increase
(in emplace
rate)
Materials & energy
microsystems
information
technology

Energy sources. A mix of sensors is envisioned, ranging from low-
data-rate seismic sensors to high-data-rate video sensors. While some of
these sensors would achieve the desired lifetime with todays batteries,
others will need about 10-100 times more energy than can be provided by
present-day batteries. Two approaches have been identified that could lead
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to such an improvement: very high-energy-density materials and energy
harvesting from sources (physical and chemical) in the local environment.
Microsystems. Achieving the critical size, weight, and cost targets
that are necessary for close-in sensors will only be possible if nanoscale
miniaturization and mass-production techniques are developed.
Developments in micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) for sensors,
especially for the microfluidic manipulations needed for chemical and
biological identification, will be critical. A special focus on increasing the
level of integration while controlling process cost is critical to success.
MEMS will also play a critical role in interfacing with biological systems,
providing mobility, and reducing the cost and complexity of the
communications subsystems. Lower power and more highly integrated
electronics, as well as efficient algorithms, are essential to enable the
sensors to process locally signature data, thereby minimizing the quantity
and frequency of data transmission. This advance would reduce both
power consumption (communication is very costly) and probability of
detection during communication. For certain sensors, a reduction in
power-per-operation of more than 10,000-fold may be needed from
present day levels. Ultimately, nanotechnology, as discussed in a later
section, should provide substantial further improvements in capabilities.
Biotechnology. Development of low-cost sensors capable of detecting
and fully characterizing bioagents will become possible with sustained and
focused work in the biotechnology area, as discussed previously.
Biotechnology may also provide other quantum-leap technologies that
could result in dramatic new capabilities in miniature form factors. For
example, the successful integration of electronic microsystems with living
organisms, such as insects, could provide new delivery systems for the
sensors, or impart mobility. Biological systems or processes could provide
the basis for generating energy at the sensors by using materials present in
the local environment, just as living organisms do. Chemical sensors (odor
detectors) provide yet another example of sensing capabilities that might
be possible through biomimetics.
MASSIVE ARRAYS OF
GROUND SENSORS __________________________________
The task force agrees with previous DSB study conclusions in
proposing that the DoD undertake the creation of a new class of
surveillance capability, involving the use of as many as 100,000 to
1,000,000 microsensors distributed over a theater of operations, but
concentrated in critical target areas. These micro-sensors would be able to


121
provide continuous surveillance of concealed and moving targets with an
array of different detectors, such as biological, chemical, optical imaging,
acoustic, seismic, and electromagnetic sensors. Advanced energy systems
coupled with covert communications would transmit data to relays and
overhead receiving systems for processing into detection, identification,
and target data.
In future systems, some of the microsensors might have ground or air
mobility to allow advantageous placement and observation. It is
anticipated that some degree of robot intelligence could be incorporated to
enable the micro-sensors to investigate concealed targets on their own.
This class of surveillance and targeting system, integrated with greatly
improved versions of the more conventional remote air- and space-based
sensors via a C4ISR capability, should allow future U.S. military forces to
find, identify, and target aggressor military equipment and forces that are
concealed under foliage, in buildings, and perhaps in underground
facilities. In addition, such a sensor capability should allow identification
and targeting of moving targets, even under foliage.
Many technologies needed for these miniaturized sensors are already
under development with support by DoD or the commercial sector. For
example, a current five-year program in the Army is developing an
increasingly capable network of small sensors that can detect many, but
not all, of the signatures described above. These sensors are small, easily
deployable, are able to function unattended for three to four months, and
are locally netted together on the battlefield.
To achieve more sophisticated sensor capabilities (such as video-based
and bio-sensing capabilities), longer lifetimes, and truly strategic
capabilities such as country-wide coverage by sensors with real-time,
remote polling, and on-board data processing, these developments will
need to be continued and expanded. This endeavor will lead to
evolutionary improvements in conventional point sensors, as well as lay a
technological base for rapidly applying more radical concepts from the
biotechnology, nanotechnology, and quantum computing areas.
Indeed, to achieve the dramatic technological capability needed to
make feasible the ultra-low-cost, highly capable, and proliferative sensors
described above, focused investment is necessary in "stretch" or "radical"
technologies. Focused investments on approaches that could lead to leaps
in capabilities in energy systems, microsystems, and biotechnology are
essential. It is worth noting that these technological developments are
expected to have a broad impact across a wide range of DoD systems and
to enable significant civilian dual-use payoffs.
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While civilian technology development is proceeding in some of these
areas, most of it is focused on the near term. These technologies should be
combined to demonstrate initial military capabilities.
Recommendation: A program should be established, focusing
on advancing technology in a variety of ultra-small sensing
devices, micro-high-energy-density technology, microrobotics
and air vehicles, covert communications technology, ultra-small
data processors and memories, and the integration of these into
very small, low-cost systems. That program should also be
responsible for integrating these into a pervasive sensing system.
An appropriate level of funding is $150 million per year,
sustained over at least a five-year period.
10
N
WARGAMING:
PEER-TO-PEER WARGAMING
In 1999, the DSB conducted a study on training superiority and
training surprise. It investigated the current state of military training and
readiness, leading to the following findings:
Some forms of training can deliver order-of-magnitude
improvements in warfare proficiency in as little as two
weeks.
Warfare in 2010 and 2020 will require more training, not
less.
The acquisition and testing process pays little attention to
how a weapon system will be provided with trained
operators and maintainers.
Inadequate and poorly timed training will negate the
technical superiority of hardware.
A new training revolution is possible. It can pay for itself if
structural problems are solved.
Adversaries could use a new training revolution against us,
but so far have been constrained by cost and cultural
impediments.
The study of this task force not only confirms these findings, but also
concludes that the potential exists to use new technologies in ways that


123
allow rapid development of and experimentation with new doctrine and
operational concepts. The task force believes that rapid development and
experimentation can lead to significant improvements in the effectiveness
of U.S. armed forces, and that such improvement is both possible and
necessary, given the rapidly expanding operational spectrum facing the
U.S. military.
Forces train so that they can respond quickly, confidently, and with
total dominance. Forces train to avoid surprises, so that superiority comes
not only from technological superiority but also from the fact that, no
matter what the situation, they have seen it before.
THE NEED FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF TACTICS____________________________
In recent years, U.S. military forces have been experiencing a
relentless increase in the tempo of operations. While this change in itself is
enough reason to carefully examine the adequacy of training programs and
technologies, it is the rapidly expanding variety of operations that places
the greatest stress on preparedness. Unconventional operations, such as
contingencies, urban operations, and peacekeeping missions, routinely
lead U.S. forces into encounters with asymmetric threats. As the recent
experiences in Somalia and Kosovo have shown, while the United States
has certainly established technological superiority over those who pose
asymmetric threats, adversaries are still quite capable and will attempt to
use tactics that U.S. forces have not before encountered or trained for. In a
nutshell, capable adversaries are not likely to fight by the rules, and in
fact they will learn U.S. rules of engagement and attempt to exploit their
knowledge to their best advantage.
The effectiveness of U.S. forces in such situations relies to a
significant degree on developing the organizational structure and
supporting technology to allow for timely and accurate decision making.
Advancements in communications technology and military structure,
leading ultimately to a working and effective C4ISR capability, are
essential ingredients in any strategy for improving decision making. But,
ultimately, it is the soldier on the ground or in the cockpit who will face
new or unfamiliar situations and will have to rely on superior training to
make the right decisions, and it is the commander who must have access to
a wider range of operational concepts than ever before. One implication
of this circumstance is that the soldier in the foxhole increasingly must
be trusted to make decisions and take actions. This suggests the need for a
flattening of organizational hierarchies, which can lead to greater agility,
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as well as the empowerment of people with exceptional abilities to make a
real difference.
Indeed, the flexibility and inventiveness of U.S. forces is admirable.
But analyses of DoD processes reveal that innovations happen primarily in
times of war. One must ask the question: is it possible to create, during
peacetime, the constant competitive pressure that leads to rapid
innovation? Rapid peacetime development of new operational concepts
and even new doctrine would allow substantial benefits in training and
readiness, as detailed in previous DSB studies. And while U.S. forces have
been able to adapt their operations in time to be effective in Afghanistan,
other experiences (such as in Somalia) show that surprises do occur and
can have disastrous consequences.
During the course of its study of this topic, the task force made the
following observations:
Technology barriers exist today that, broadly speaking, can
be referred to as the C4ISR problem. However, timely
and accurate decision-making is not just a C4ISR problem,
but also a problem of overly deep and complicated
organizational hierarchies. The most effective way to
shorten decision cycles may be to exploit superior training
and technology, thereby allowing some key decisions to be
made locally.
Training superiority is a viable and necessary concept, and
increasingly so, given the trends in operational tempo and
variety. Asymmetric threats are more likely to lead to
unconventional and surprising situations unless the
spectrum of training situations is widened dramatically.
Peacetime doctrine and operational concept development
processes are centralized, hierarchical, and time-insensitive.
Innovations seem to occur mainly during the competitive
pressure of wartime, which does not allow time for training
or for experimentation. Mechanisms for creating
competitive pressure during peacetime may provide the
impetus for continuous innovation in concept development.
The task force believes that new technologies and, importantly, new
mindsets, are available that have the potential of creating constant
competitive pressure within U.S. military organizations, leading to a
culture of constant experimentation, training, and rapid innovation in
tactics and operational concept development. The task force believes that


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technologies exist that can, in essence, create a greater range of past
experiences and thereby create a form of training superiority.
ACHIEVING PRESCIENCE ______________________________
One of the great frontiers of science today involves the development of
a clear understanding of the processes of human cognition. The rise of
cognitive science and its relation to psychology, computer science,
medicine, and even business has made it clear that tremendous untapped
potential exists in almost all areas of human life. Although relatively little
is known today, several basic principles that affect training and decision-
making are well understood and accepted. First, and perhaps foremost, is
that humans tend to perceive what they expect to perceive.
Mindsets tend to be quick to form but highly resistant to change. Even
when new information is presented that takes us out of the realm of
current operational thinking, the tendency is to assimilate the new inputs
into existing images and concepts, as opposed to thinking out of the box.
Indeed, this tendency increases with the ambiguity of the information and
the confidence of the actor in the validity of his image. Important changes
in a situation can happen so gradually and in such an evolutionary way
that they go unnoticed. Ultimately, as ones commitment to an established
view increases, so does the tendency to perceive only the expected. In the
military context, this phenomenon leads to the tendency to develop
training methods, operational concepts, and doctrine that prepare us for the
last war instead of the next one.
While changing these characteristics of human nature may not be
possible, there are in fact well-understood strategies that organizations use
to avoid turning these tendencies into liabilities. One basic approach is to
create a culture of continuous competitive pressure. Macroeconomic
studies of large organizations show that the pace of innovation increases
dramatically during times of intense competitive stress. By creating such a
culture, organizations seek to harness the power of collective intelligence,
since successful competition requires the empowerment of all its members
in the innovation process.
Commercial enterprises have long recognized the importance of this
strategy, and this recognition has led generally to flatter, more lateral
organizational structures. In recent years, these ideas have been married
with Internet-based technologies in an attempt to empower and access the
collective intelligence of, potentially, millions of people. One simple
example can be seen at AskMe.com, which offers companies a way to
capture the collective intelligence of its employees. It does so by providing
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a kind of corporate clearinghouse of local experts, organized according to
key relevant topics (everything from how to analyze the latest market
trends for the companys key markets to advice on the best local places for
a quick low-calorie lunch), and then creating incentives for experts to
provide high-quality answers to questions for other members of the
company. What is essential here is that the web technology creates highly
efficient and empowering channels of communication, in an attempt to
realize the potential benefits of Metcalfs Law.
28
This approach is in
contrast to creating central knowledge management repositories without
creating any collaborative structures.
It is natural to ask whether such collaborative technologies can be
brought to bear in improving the DoDs business practices. But a more
fundamental scientific question is whether large-scale collaborative
technologies can help support a revolution in training and development of
new operational concepts. This report suggests that the answer may very
well be yes. Moreover, the technology of massive multiplayer
environments may provide the key starting point for such a development.
MASSIVE MULTIPLAYER
WAR GAMING______________________________________
One of the healthiest commercial sectors in the area of information
technology is online entertainment or, to put it more simply, computer
games, as described early in this chapter. DoD has made substantial
investments in modeling and simulation technologies, many of which lie
at the foundation of computer games, and this investment has increased
steadily as the technology has resulted in clearer and more immediate
benefits.
Operations such as the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, and
programs such as JSIM, have interacted in important ways with the online
entertainment industry. This interaction has happened both in smaller,
focused projects, as well as in larger initiatives such as those embodied by
the Institute for Creative Technologies, a joint venture between the U.S.
Army and the University of Southern California. Indeed, as a recent report
by the National Research Council states, modeling and simulation
technology now provides a low-cost means of conducting joint training
exercises, evaluating new doctrine and tactics, and studying the
effectiveness of new weapons systems. Both the entertainment industry
and DoD are aggressively pursuing development of distributed simulation

28
Metcalfe's Law states that the usefulness, or utility, of a network equals the square of the
number of users.


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systems that can support Internet-based games and large-scale training
exercises.
The area of most rapid growth and intensive investment by online
entertainment companies is one about which adults over the age of 22
have virtually no knowledge: massive multiplayer virtual environments
(see Figure 3-7). MMP games make use of the Internet and advanced
server technologies to create massive virtual environments in which tens
of thousands of players participate simultaneously. In fact, MMP games
often follow the trend towards network-based collaboration by providing
ways for players to create and contribute new technologies, new virtual
spaces, and new tactics for use by the entire community of players.
Figure 3-7. Screen Shots of Some of the More Popular Computer Game
Software

There are two essential aspects of MMP games. First, by mixing
synthetic players with human players, the depth and challenge of the game
play can be heightened. Indeed, within the U.S. government, the
importance of multiple human players in simulation-based training is
already recognized in developments such as Distributed Mission Training,
for much the same reasons that the concept of red teams in live
Microsoft Flight Simulator
Lineage
Final Fantasy
(simulated image)
Rogue Spear
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exercises has shown such great value. Interestingly, off-the-shelf
technology has advanced to the point that some agencies are able to make
use of commercial products as serious training tools. For example, the
U.S. Secret Service has used the game Rogue Spear, by Red Storm
Entertainment, for training of the presidential protection detail.
Second, in the environment in many MMP games, the incentive of
peer respect (which often leads to promotion in the field) causes players
to cooperate and collaborate in forming highly organized societies. This
collaboration also leads to the rapid dissemination of new tactics, as well
as the development and distribution of new technologies.
SPECIAL OPPORTUNITY:
PEER-TO-PEER WAR GAMING _________________________
The possibility that the technologies and concepts underlying
computer games might have applications to training, experimentation, and
tactics evolution is not lost on the DoD. While much of its investment thus
far has been in the core physical modeling and high-fidelity simulation
aspects of training systems, some developments along the lines of
networked simulation have also been conducted. What has gone largely
unexplored, however, is the rising trend towards massive multiplayer
gaming, and the possibility that the observed emergent behaviors,
accelerated evolution of new ideas, and rapid dissemination of new tactics
can be achieved in a practical way for the military.
This study suggests that MMP virtual environments must be
investigated thoroughly for their potential to provide prompt joint and
service doctrine and concept improvements and evolution, with extensive
field participation in their derivation and refinement. If realized, this
process would be in contrast to todays peacetime processes for
development of doctrine and operational concepts, which are centralized,
hierarchical, and time insensitiveand thus slow to mature.
The potential benefits suggest that the DoD should undertake the
development or acquisition (and modification) of a toolkit for creating
MMP virtual environments, to support on the order of two million
uniformed military personnel, both in CONUS and overseas, in
exploration and unrestricted play. A collection of MMP environments
should be created to provide 24/7/365 availability to Joint
Experimentation for the Combatant Commanders, National Training
Center, Red Flag, and Fleet Ex-like activities. The goal should be to create
peer-to-peer wargames that broaden and flatten access to the best and most
innovative thought. Furthermore, these MMP environments should seek to


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create continuous, intensive, competitive pressure by facilitating play with
many different adversaries and adversarial rules of engagement.
Beyond the network security, server technology, and simulation
methodologies involved, additional novel S&T challenges must be
overcome. A method needs to be developed for extracting emergent
behaviors to discover new doctrine and concepts, particularly in
environments in which hierarchy does not necessarily rule, and the
primary mode of interaction is through informal (and possibly even
unrestricted) play. A second significant challenge is how to identify,
capture, and validate the winning concepts and ideas, as well as how to
discover unusually talented people. Finally, some cultural barriers may
need to be overcome if the notion of MMP environments is to become an
element of military training. Today, the average 18-year-old male has over
1,500 hours of video gaming experience (on par with fighter-pilot training
hours). The challenge is to exploit and match this level of experience in
future training and experimentation systems.
RECOMMENDATIONS _________________________________
Recommendation: The DoD should undertake a comprehensive
investigation into the development and use of massive
multiplayer virtual environments for training, doctrine, and
concept development and experimentation. The Joint Warfare
Center and the European Command (EUCOM) Warrior
Preparation Center should serve as Concept-Testing Masters,
in order to provide incentive for participation in the games and
to provide deployment and system administration of the game
server systems.
DARPA should serve as the technical arm of this research, in part by
acting as the primary interface to the video gaming community, and also
by commissioning the development of specific MMP gaming engines that
would be suitable for military applications. DARPA should also enable
basic research on automatic analysis of emergent behaviors in MMP
games, with an eye towards extracting not only new operational concepts
but also the 3 talents in the Joint Warfare Center and EUCOM.
The DoD should invest $75M over the current future years defense
plan, with clear metrics used to assess progress. Concrete metrics could
include the breadth and numbers of players involved, the numbers of
concepts tested, results from critiques and analyses of virtual experiments,
and field acceptance of the extracted insights and results.
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In 18 months, a tool based on off-the-shelf gaming engines that allows
rapid development of relatively small (10
5
) MMP environments should be
demonstrated. In three years, a dedicated DoD concept exploration system
should be produced, which supports the development of multiple,
significant military MMP environments. In five years, DoD should have
multiple MMP environments running, each with 10
5
-10
6
players
continuously participating, and with automatic vetting of emergent
behaviors.
THE REALITY DIAL _________________________________
Already in some of todays emerging systems and platforms there is a
blurring of the line between the simulator and the actual vehicle. This
similarity is particularly true of unmanned aerial vehicles in which the
training simulator is essentially identical to the actual flight-control
system. In essence, remotely controlled systems lead naturally to the idea
of moving seamlessly from the virtual to the real, a concept that this
report refers to as the reality dial. On the virtual end of the dial, is pure
simulation, supporting exploration in an essentially free-form and
unrestricted manner. Towards the other end of the dial, is experimentation,
and then training, and, ultimately, control of actual unmanned systems.
Indeed, as unmanned systems become more prevalent, and the fidelity of
the simulation technology used for training continues to improve, the
question of who and how many people will remotely control our future
forces emergesa topic discussed in Appendix G.
10X HUMAN WARRIOR:
ENHANCING HUMAN
PERFORMANCE
Medical advances ranging from complex organ transplantation, to
artificial cochlea, to implanted insulin pumps, have permitted humans to
live longer and better lives. Indeed, the history of advances in bionics and
related medicine date back hundreds of years to the first iron prosthetic
hand with flexible finger joints in 1504, and have now progressed through
discoveries that today permit vision to be restored with a plastic contact
lens, age-eroded hips to be renewed with new artificial joints, and the
function of lost limbs to be recovered with tendon- or nerve-controlled
prostheses. The February 8, 2002 issue of Science, entitled Bodybuilding:


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The Bionic Human, chronicles this amazing progress over hundreds of
years. Examples appear in Table 3-1.
Table 3-1. History of Bodybuilding
Year Advance
1597 Reconstruction of the nose by tissue grafting
1682 Repair of human skull with dog skull bone
1888 First reports on use of contact lenses to correct vision
1905 & 1906 First reports of corneal transplants
1957 First successful cochlear implant developed
1972 Testing of modern design steel/polymer hip joint
1986 First successful double lung transplant
2000 Implantation of a prototype artificial pancreas

The articles also describe current research that will shape the future:
From tendons to bladders, bioengineers are manufacturing ready-to-
wear designer tissues in the laboratory. They are coaxing cells to
assemble into three-dimensional structures on biodegradable scaffolds that
can be implanted in patients at sites of tissue injury Sophisticated
microelectronics for signal processing are bringing the dream of merging
man and machines closer to reality.
29
The use of medical implants,
transplantation, and artificial devices is indeed a scientific and
technological megatrend.
Nearly all of the examples above involve restoration of function, not
enhancement of function. While advantages might be realized by military
personnel by capitalizing on such medical breakthroughs, the
understanding and progress made in this area leads naturally to questions
regarding their potential use for enhancing human function. In the near
term, improvements in selection and training are possible. In the far term,
the task force envisions a time when cochlear implants might extend the
range of human hearing, or perhaps when an artificial retina would permit
a human to see in the infrared.
These concepts raise profound ethical questions. Indeed, such concerns
have become pervasive, among experts and laypeople alike, as advances
such as genetic engineering and implanted microelectronic devices open
up entirely new possibilities. Regardless, the task force argues that the
needs of an aging population will ensure continued progress despite
ethical debates, and as has long been the case, not everyone will share the
same values about fair play. A prime example is presented by the risky,
yet prevalent, use of performance-enhancing drugs in sporting events.

29
Science, Vol 295, No 5557, pp 917-1180. 8 February 2002.
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Doping scandals have become an almost routine part of modern
sporting competitions, including the Olympics. But many sports
scientists warn that performance-enhancing drugs may be a thing of
the past when it comes to illicit ways to win. Scientists on the
forefront of genetic manipulation predict that in as little as five to 15
years, athletes may be using genetic engineering to get the edge over
their opponents.
30

The ethical questions posed by the ability to enhance human
performance will need to be addressed. However, an intense desire to
push the envelope combined with an increasing spectrum of possibilities
for enhancing human performance makes doing so inevitable. In the
future, genetic screening, genetic manipulation, use of advanced doping
agents with highly targeted outcomes, and other more exotic tools such as
bionic interfaces are likely to be used to dramatically improve training
outcomes. Tasks with stressing performance requirements will necessarily
drive the trend; the DoD would be shortsighted to ignore the role of such
future capabilities in warfighting.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARFIGHTER EFFECTIVENESS,
ENHANCING HUMAN PERFORMANCE____________________
The reality of modern warfare is that warfighters face around-the-
clock demands, at greatly increased operational tempo, using increasingly
sophisticated systems. Many potential opportunities exist for improving
warfighter effectiveness by enhancing human performance. Table 3-2
highlights some of the myriad objectives that might be sought through
techniques to increase the normal functionality of humans. This report
focuses on only a few.
Table 3-2. Objectives for increasing human performance in warfighting
Increase Decrease/Regulate
Strength Sleep requirements
Reflexes Caloric requirements
Alertness Fatigue
Memory Perception of pain
Senses (hearing/vision) Adverse stress effects
Cognitive capabilities Motion sickness
Profiling* Serious injuries*
Training* (* Indicates nearer term capability)

30
CNN.com news report, Genetic enhancements may be on horizon for athletes, February 20,
2002.


133

New opportunities in cognitive psychology, cell signaling and
regulation, advanced therapies, sensors and implants, artificial organs, and
drugs have laid the scientific foundation for achieving these objectives.
Breakthroughs in genetic screening techniques will make it possible to
identify individual genetic variances that might be correlated with
cognitive abilities, reflexes, cardiovascular endurance, strength, and other
features relevant to warfighting. The ability to recognize such correlations
will require the creation of genetic databases. While such information may
be beyond the social tolerance level for the general population, it should
be considered for active-duty military personnel.
Notably, assessments of physical and psychological performance
under challenging conditions (flight training, SEAL selection) are
currently used to identify the individuals best suited for these roles. Such
screening techniques are an integral part of the selection of personnel for
elite forces, but they are costly and time consuming. Given this history,
the use of tools such as genetic screening or other quantitative
biotechnology-based techniques as part of the selection and specialization
process over a wider portion of the military population should be
acceptable. Such tools might also create collateral benefits in reducing
wash out and the concomitant psychological damage. It should, of
course, be recognized that not all differences in performance will be
attributable to genetic differences; however, some will clearly be linked.
As an example of the types of performance differentials that may be
observed through the collection of genetic data, consider that sprint
athletes have 75% more fast-twitch muscle fibers than distance runners,
who have 75% more slow-twitch fibers. Fiber-type composition is mostly
a product of heredity, and while training may alter it slightly, it cannot
change the baseline muscle composition sufficiently to result in the high
percentage of fast-twitch fibers needed in elite sprinters. Canadian
scientists, Drs. J. Simoneau and C. Bouchard, have estimated that 40
percent of the phenotypic variance of fiber type is due to environmental
influences (i.e., exercise) while 45 percent is associated with genetic
factors. (The remaining 15 percent is due to sampling error.) Thus all
people are born with a given athletic potential. Training will maximize
that potential, but if you are not born with world-class running potential,
you will never become a world-class sprinter or distance runner. This idea
is true at a basic level for individual traits that affect both physical and
mental capabilities. Thus, training can modulate innate differences, but
those differences cannot be eliminated. The primary objective, therefore,
of genetic databases and screening should be to reveal individual
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capabilities so as to enhance performance further through proper selection
and training.
Recent advances in medical science also aid the optimization of
performance. As scientists better understand the basic elements of human
physiology, dramatic improvements can be achieved in training. Figure
3-6 shows the impact of controlling core body temperature on strength and
endurance training.
Figure 3-6a shows the conditioning progress of a body builder during
twelve weeks of controlled training runs. A control run consisted of
repeated sets of pull-ups to exhaustion with three-minute rests. In each
case, the numbers represent the total number of pull-ups completed in 14
sets. The bottom curve, labeled occasional cooling, illustrates the first
six weeks of progress in strength training made when the test subjects
core body temperature was reduced after the ninth set of pull-ups. During
the second six weeks, represented by the upper curve labeled regular
cooling, the subject received cooling after every other set of pull-ups.
Starred days are control days with no cooling. Note that improvements
only occurred during cooling days in both six-week periods. When regular
cooling was used, the test subjects strength endurance increased three-
fold. Notably, these results were repeated in reverse order with a group of
three wrestlers who showed steady improvements with core body
temperature cooling and reached a plateau when regular cooling was
stopped.
Figure 3-6b shows the impact of such cooling on endurance. In this
experiment, football players were subjected to repeated two-minute sprints
with three-minute rest periods. The test subjects in the cooled category
received between one and one and one-half minutes of cooling between
sprints. Note the difference in the performance decrement in successive
sprints. As these experimental results indicate, improvements in strength
and endurance can be enhanced through an understanding of the influence
of body core temperature on performance.
These examples indicate that significant improvements in human
performance can be expected and realized by adhering to the following
credo: Select for natural abilities, then optimize performance.


135
Figure 3-6. The impact of controlling core body temperature on a) strength
and (b) endurance training.

Such improvements are but the beginning. Bionic devices that permit
extended-range hearing or multi-wavelength vision will be within grasp in
the next decade. The ability to interface directly with the body over
extended time periods as well as the ability to process additional cognitive
inputs will determine the pace at which such capabilities emerge. At the
same time, the risk associated with such implants will be reduced because
of the growing experience with similar devices used to restore function,
and the risk that the United States will face warfighting adversaries who
have chosen to capitalize on such enhancements will be increased.
Recommendation: The Department of Defense should
undertake an exploratory, socially, and ethically responsible
program to investigate technologies and techniques for
enhancing human performance. In the near term, the program
should focus on the enhancements of performance made
possible through better selection, screening, and training
techniques. Future aspects of the program should be focused on
enhancement through sensors and implants, drugs, cognitive
psychology, cell signaling and regulation, and advanced
therapies, among others.
Strength training to attain higher
levels that endure
(mean + SEM)
500
540
580
620
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
trial
y
a
r
d
s
cooled
control
Endurance Training
Strength Training
Sustained endurance
improvements
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Programs to advance such technologies and techniques for
enhancing warfighter performance should be increased by $30
million per year.
BASIC SCIENCE INVESTMENTS:
NANO AND QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY
Two areas of research in technology portend radical changes in the
future technology landscape; they are nanotechnology and quantum
information systems. At this stage of maturation, it is not possible to
determine what specific future military capabilities will be made possible
as a result of investments in these technology areas. At the same time, it
seems clear to this task force that a failure to embrace these areas of
widespread scientific pursuit could lead to unsettling technical surprises.
The United States must therefore play a major role in the development of
these technologies and creates the talent pool necessary to exploit
developments in these areas. The investment in basic research necessary is
modest. The potential payoff is disproportionately large.
NANOTECHNOLOGYWHAT IS IT,
AND WHY SHOULD THE DOD CARE?_____________________
Over the past two years, the scientific and industrial communities have
embraced nanotechnology as perhaps the most important upcoming field
in science, with the potential to revolutionize virtually every modern
technology, from materials to information processing to medicine. At the
same time, the actual definition of nanotechnology has remained vague
especially to laypersons. Nanotechnology does, in fact, mean many things
to many people, because it represents a broad area of science. Some
appreciation of the breadth of nanotechnology, and why it is difficult to
define explicitly, can be gained by considering Figure 3-8.
Here the various fundamental fields of sciencephysics, chemistry,
and biologyare charted as a function of time versus an unusual axis,
namely the characteristic length scale that represented the frontier of that
field at a given time. For physics and biology, that scale has decreased
with time, although for different reasons. The frontiers of solid-state
physics have evolved from the development of a quantitative
understanding of bulk materials, such as superconductors and
semiconductors, to the current frontier of trying to understand and control


137
the quantum mechanical behavior of nanoscale structures. This evolution
of physics has fed into and benefited from the development of photo-
lithography and other top-down fabrication approaches. Biology, on the
other hand, moved from the phenomenology of cell biology to the more
exact science of molecular biology and now into the predictive and
rational molecular design of therapeutics. Finally, chemistry has moved
from the simplicity of small molecules to the complex character of
macromolecules and supramolecular assemblies. All three of these fields
are now converging on the common (nano)length scale of 1 to 100
nanometers (nms). For reference, a typical chemical bond is about 0.1 nm
in length, a protein or other large biological macromolecule is about 5-10
nm across, and a transistor in a state-of-the-art Pentium IV chip has
components that are just over 100 nm in size.
Figure 3-8. The time-evolution of the various physical sciences, plotted as a
function of the length scale that represented the frontier of
research in those fields.

The convergence of the fundamental scientific disciplines onto the
nanometer-length scale implies several things, including the following:
A bottom-up, or biologically-inspired, manufacturing
approach will be coupled with the traditional top-down
fabrication that is utilized in nearly all products made
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today. This bottom-up manufacturing approach is a
common signature of many nanotechnologies.
The functional complexity that is characteristic of
biological systems may be harnessed for applications as
diverse as communications, medicine, or structural
materials.
The fundamental length scale of manufacturing complexity
is one in which quantum mechanical interactions and
chemical interactions may dominate.
For the DoD, nanotechnology will provide the preferred platform for
future photonics, electronics, magnetics, and sensing devices. It will
provide the pathway for multifunctional materials, such as ultra-strong,
lightweight materials capable of active camouflage and stealth and even,
perhaps, self-healing. It will provide for devices that are capable of ultra-
secure communications, as well as rapid code-breaking systems. It will
eventually be the enabling technology for many advanced versions of the
grand challenges discussed in this report, such as Bug-to-drug in 24
hours, biological warfare defense, the 10 human warrior, or the sensor
nerve networks discussed in No place to hide. Finally, nanotechnologies
tend to be highly energy efficient, thereby reducing the tax on fuel and
battery life, which has obvious direct benefits for the warfighter.
While the potential and promise of nanotechnology are tremendous, a
concerted, long-term research effort is required to bring it to fruition. One
way to gauge the time required for an emerging technology to generate
commercial products is to look at the historical chronicle of scientific
publications and patents in that field. Such a chronicle is presented in
Figure 3-9. Perhaps the most similar previous technological revolution
was in biotechnologya field that has developed into a healthy (but still
very young) industry just within the past few years. By comparison,
Figure 3-9 implies that a healthy nanotechnology industry may exist by
2020.
In the remainder of this section, a timeline is presented for the
development of nanotechnology, highlighted by a few specific examples
of products that are likely to emerge. Following is a discussion on the
scope of the worldwide corporate and governmental research efforts in
nano-technology. In many of the most critical applications of
nanotechnology, the United States is not in the lead in either funding or
research results. Finally, a discussion is presented on how DoD
investments in nanotechnology can be best leveraged.


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Figure 3-9. A chart of nanotechnology-related scientific articles and patents
indicates that this field is where biotechnology was 20 years ago.

The Timeline for Nanotechnology
As stated above, one objection that people have to discussion of
nanotechnology is that it appears to be too broad, encompassing almost
everything. Imagine if top-down fabrication were being proposed for the
first time. Theorists could envision carving out spearheads, and eventually
getting to the integrated circuit. Nanotechnology, with its accompanying
bottom-up fabrication, is well described by this analogy. One way to break
down the development of nanotechnology is to categorize it according to
the difficulty in manufacture, starting with randomly dispersed
nanopowders. Table 3-3 represents such a breakdown. This list is far from
complete, and, becomes increasingly vague as the time-horizon lengthens.
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Table 3-3. The Various Stages of Nanotechnology
The Nanocomponent is Passive. For these applications, the nanocomponent lends
a materials property, such as strength, thermal conductivity, etc., to the final product.
0 length scales
controlled, single-
component material
Nanopowders Many existing applications in reprography,
catalysis, combustion initiators, paints, etc.
0 length scales
controlled, multi-
component material
Particle / polymer dispersions Existing applications in
tires, rubber materials; future applications in lightweight,
structural materials such as the body panels of cars, fuel cells,
etc.
1 length scale
controlled
Mesoporous materials Existing applications in toxic waste
remediation; catalysts; magnetoresistive materials; Future
applications in photonics, paints, camouflage; lightweight, high
temp structural materials
Multiple length
scales controlled
Multifunctional materials e.g. structural + thermal
conductivity + electrical conductivity, etc. A few
applications exist, including very low threshold lasers; cheap
but low-efficiency photovoltaics; Future applications are many,
including thermoelectrics; highly efficient white lighting.
Most current long-term industrial R&D by chemical companies
is focused here.
The Nanocomponent is Active. For these applications, the nanocomponent is the
switch, sensor, transducer, quantum bit, etc. These applications are significantly more
demanding, and generally longer term.
Active, non-
interacting nano-
components
Conducting nanowires, single atom dopants,
nanoresonators Quantum cryptography, chemical and bio
sensors and detectors, ultra-high frequency communications.
Mostly academic work, small corporate investment chiefly
through startups. Many laboratory demonstrations, 5-8 years
out for first few commercial products).
Active, interacting
nanocomponents
(implies control
over multiple length
scales
Quantum information storage, molecular memories, molecular
medical therapeutics, etc., high amplitude piezo-chemical,
piezo-optical, piezo-electronic materials (i.e. shape-
controllable materials)
10-20 years out, largely academic investments, a few
laboratory demonstrations exist that have technological
relevance)

Active, coherently
interacting, time-
evolving nano-
components
Quantum computing
(largely academic investments, a very small amount of
industrial research (est. <$3M); a couple of scientifically (not
technologically) relevant demonstrations exist).
Far
Term
Timeline
to
Product


141
Corporate and International (Non-U.S.)
Investments in Nanotechnology
The worldwide corporate investment in nanoscience is estimated to be
greater than $1 billion per year. This investment is dominated by R&D
efforts in certain existing nanotechnology products such as nanopowders,
giant magnetoresistive read heads for magnetic storage devices, and
nanofluidics for inkjets and pharmaceutical screening technologies. Some
of these products are new, while others have been around for some time. A
smaller fraction of these dollars are invested in highly targeted
applications of nanotechnology such as certain high-end nanomaterials, or
biomolecular sensor technologies, and this work is largely being carried
out in small, venture capital (VC)-funded start-ups.
The smallest fraction of the total corporate investment (probably less
than $50 million per year worldwide) is devoted to high-risk, high-yield
technologies such as molecular and nanoelectronics and quantum
information technologies. Out of this relatively small pot, non-quantum
nanoelectronics receives the lions share of the funding. Not included in
this estimate are the R&D dollars spent on scaling silicon-based
technologies to nanometer dimensions, as that research is focused on
extending current and maturing technologies, not on developing
fundamentally new and potentially disruptive ones. A few specific
examples of corporate R&D efforts in nanotechnology are given in Table
3-4. All dollar figures are estimates, but were based on conversations with
key company employees.
Worldwide Government
Investments in Nanotechnology
The overall non-U.S. worldwide government investment in
nanotechnology, for 2001-02, is thought to be in the $850M range,
according to Dr. M.C. Roco, Chair of the National Science and
Technology Council Subcommittee on Nanoscale Science, Engineering
and Technology. This investment is split almost evenly between the
European Union and Asia. Exact numbers for participating countries are
difficult generateespecially since many of the national nanotechnology
initiatives are just now accelerating. Table 3-5 details some of the various
Asian programs, several of which are planned in the range of $100 to $200
million over a period of the next three to five years. The total Asian
investment in nanotechnology R&D is likely between $350 and $450
million per year, with Japan the major investor. However, significant
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efforts are ongoing in nearly all countries around the globe that have or are
developing a technology base.

Table 3-4. Some U.S. Corporate Investments in NanoTech R&D
Company Fundamental
research; note
Supporting
R&D
$$ Source

Hewlett Packard
Molecular
electronics;
nano materials
Nanofluidics
(advanced
inkjet
technology)
$5M/yr Basic
>$50M/yr
applied
Stan
Williams; HP
Labs Principal
Lab Scientist
& HP Fellow

Quantum Dot Corp.
Semiconductor
quantum dot
biological
labeling;
advanced
materials
$60M VC
capital over 3
yrs
(advanced to
Stage II)
Paul
Alivisatos;
founding
scientist,
Quantum Dot
Corp.

Single walled
carbon
nanotubes for
materials (incl.
DoD)
applications
$15-20M VC
funding
(Stage I)
Rick Smalley,
founding
scientist, CNI
NanoSys
These are typical
nanotech start-
up companies.
They are
premised on an
emerging
technology with
broad and
expanding
applications, but
are initially
targeted at niche
markets.
Nano and
molecular
electronics;
sensors
$15-20M VC
funding
(Stage I)
Larry Bock,
CW Group &
Founder
NanoSys

Nano &
molecular
electronics;
nano-biotech
? $8M/year
(15-20
people)
Herb
Goronkin,
Motorola VP

Nanotech IT
incl. Molecular
elect.; quantum
IT
Nanomagnetics
including
magnetoresistiv
es
$10M/year
Basic;
>$50M/yr
applied
size of IBM
nano R&D
effort based
on
conversations
with IBM
research staff
members.

BON
MANOTECHNOLOGIES
llCORPORATED


143
Table 3-5. Some Asian Governmental Investments in NanoTech R&D
Country Research Focus $$ Source
Singapore
R&D very connected to
industrial needs; not
much high-risk work
Scaling to Tens
of $Ms /year
Mr. Ming K. Teo,
Chair, Singapore
Econ. Dev. Board
S. Korea
Scaling to
>$30M/yr
Dr. Gibs Song,
President, Samsung
Advanced Institute of
Technology
Taiwan
Basic and applied
investments; leveraged
by industry. Three
major centers in
Taiwan; Two(?) major
centers in South Korea.
Scaling to
>$40M/yr
Dr. Cho-Ho Wei,
Chairman, National
Science Council,
Republic of China

China
Basic nanomaterials
R&D is a major strength
$$ figures not available but a marked
increase in high quality nanotech papers
over the past few years implies a
significant national investment.

How Should the DoD Invest in Nanotechnology?
Given an appropriate long-term investment, nanotechnology is likely
to lead to very significant, even revolutionary, changes in products for
both the military and the civilian sector. However, any funding or business
model for promoting nanotechnology development must account for the
following:
Some nanotechnologies may provide pathways for the
incremental improvement of existing technologies, and
near-term applications of nanotechnology will arise from
these improvements. Most applications, however, will rely
on quite different manufacturing approaches and will
produce very different products than what currently exist.
Nanotechnologies will initially find their foothold in niche
markets.
Even for a niche-market application, the vast majority of
nanotechnologies will require long-term and sustained
investment.
These considerations have several implications. First, large companies
are unlikely to invest serious resources into nanotechnology development.
The implications for start-up companies are perhaps even more severe,
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especially given the recent economic downturn. Start-up companies are
typically funded through venture capital. After reaching historic highs, the
return on venture fund investment has been dropping steadily over the past
two years, and in the most recent quarters, it has actually been negative.
Private-sector money has thus been pushed into funding later-stage, low-
risk companies, as indicated in Figure 3-10. This figure describes where
private funds are being invested, and shows that long-term, early-state
investments, such as are required for most nanotechnologies, are
becoming increasingly disfavored (light bars) over short-term, low-risk
investments.
Figure 3-6. Comparison of Early and Later-State Company Mix

The DoD can play three key roles in helping to bring nanotechnology
to the marketplace:
1. The DoD can provide a steady level of funding for
those nanotechnologies that will most directly affect the
warfighter. If fundamental scientific issues stand
between a technology and the market place, neither
large companies nor venture capital firms are likely to
pursue them.
2. The DoD can promote a strong dialogue between the
scientists working in the various areas of
nanotechnology, and the military personnel responsible
for maintaining national security. Such communication


145
is not always done very well. Given the recent terrorist
attacks of September 11, scientists working on
nanotechnology are likely to be more than willing to
steer their research towards the needs of the DoD,
provided that those needs are well elucidated.
3. The DoD can be the initial customer for many
nanotechnology products, thereby providing the niche
market that can drive early product development. It will
thus catalyze the influx of venture capital and corporate
funding into nanotechnology, and will leverage DoD
investments in this field. This approach is historically
the way that the DoD has done business. However, the
Department is (appropriately) rethinking this approach
with respect to many DoD acquisitions. It is, the task
force believes, still valid for such high-risk, high-yield
areas as nanotechnology.
QUANTUM INFORMATION SYSTEMS______________________
The second area of basic science in which the DoD should invest is
quantum information systems. Like nanotechnology, the potential effects
of advances in quantum information technology promise to be far-
reaching. This section provides a short overview of this field, in which
dramatic breakthroughs have occurred in recent years. The task force
argues that this scientific area is one where national security requires that
the United States be first in discovery, first in understanding the practical
implications for communications and computing especially, and first in
exploitation of the technology. The investment dollars are, at this stage,
relatively few. Tens of millions of dollars per year would be sufficient, in
the opinion of the task force, to ensure that the most aggressive basic
research activities are conducted in the United States.
Background
The semiconductor devices that enable todays computation and
communications continue to evolve rapidly along a path remarkably
predicted by Moores Law. Microprocessor speeds are being increased by
creating devices of ever smaller lateral dimension (today they are 100 nm)
and by introducing new materials with higher electron mobilities (e.g.,
silicon germanium alloys). No physical barrier appears to exist to impede
the reduction of device dimensions to the 10nm range. Novel molecular
electronics concepts are being explored for building devices in the sub-10-
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mn range. They hold significant promise, but many challenges will need
to be overcome, including the need to establish reliable interconnectivity.
All of these devices rely upon the transfer of charge to accomplish
classical computation. The enormous civilian demand for these high-
performance-computing devices will drive commercial investments in
these technologies until about 2020 when Moores Law reaches the atomic
limit. Until then, the DoD will be able to seek asymmetric advantage from
its proximity to the developers of the newest technologies. It should also
work to catalyze the production of devices of military importance (e.g.,
nonvolatile memory and radiation-hardened electronics).
Potential Implications for National Security
Recent developments in quantum physics and computing have created
the possibility of a completely different approach to computation and the
devices that are used to accomplish it. Quantum information processing
offers potentially revolutionary breakthroughs in both communications
and computation, including:
Algorithms for calculations that are impossibly complex for
classical computers (todays or any of those envisioned
above). Such algorithms could be used to factor large
numbers, providing a route to the decryption of previously
secure communications.
The potential of ultra-secure (zero intercept probability)
communications.
Communication bandwidths that exceed (by 100%) those of
classical (Shannon) channels.
Ultra-precise metrology, which will improve GPS precision
by a factor of 10
3
.
Further investments promise to expand the capabilities of quantum
information processing approaches. The algorithmic efforts have been
small to this point.
The fields advancement is predicated upon the development of
physical realizable qubits.
31
Many schemes have been proposed including
photon polarization electron states of trapped ions/atoms, electron or
nuclear spin, or magnetic flux state of Josephson junction rings. Two
qubit systems have been built using trapped ions, but they are unsuited for

31
Quantum bits, or qubits (pronounced "cue bits"), are the fundamental elements of a quantum
computer.


147
scale-up. A machine with 100-1000 qubits is envisaged for the
applications above. Qubits based upon electron spin (in silicon) may be
best for logic. Those involving nuclear spin (also in silicon systems) are
the most promising for storage while electron spin systems in III-V
semiconductors are likely to be preferred for communications. Recent
modest US investments have led to rapid advances in semiconductor-
based electron and nuclear spin-based devices. However, these
developments are not confined to the United States. Many nations with a
history of sustained investment in condensed-matter physics also possess
significant, and similarly successful, quantum computing programs.
CONCLUSIONS
In addition to focusing on current needs, the Department of Defense
must examine the megatrends in todays global technology landscape.
These megatrends represent areas of potential explosive growth where
new capabilities might arise for the United States military and for its
adversaries. Just as importantly, they portend major shifts in the mindset
and talents of future warriors. If the DoD does not effectively utilize tools
that are available in the global commercial marketplace, it will frustrate
and underutilize young military personnel.
Exploitation and develo0ment of opportunities presented by these
megatrends requires more than an understanding of the technologyit
often requires a change in mindset or a willingness to consider new rules.
Failure to recognize or capitalize on opportunities before an adversary
does, or dismissal of those opportunities that create some uneasiness,
could result in the United States being surprised, perhaps catastrophically.
Further, the vision of industrial leaders and the spending of their
research and development organizations determine the path for todays
high-tech megatrends. The Department of Defense no longer sets the
agendaindeed, it hasnt for nearly a decade. The Department no longer
enjoys a first-tier status in technology development. For this reason, the
task force argues that DoD needs a fundamental revitalization of the S&T
enterprise.
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__________________________________ CHAPTER IV
INVESTMENT
STRATEGY

Chapter IV.
_____________________________________________________ Investment Strategy

151
The Department of Defense (DoD) needs to make significant
changes to the content and conduct of its science and technology
enterprise. Changes are necessary because the processes, practices, and
to an increasing extent, content of the S&T enterprise are inadequate to
deal with the challenges and opportunities of the new security
environment.
In particular, important elements of the new security environment that
must be considered include:
1. A few new threats so pernicious that they demand greater
attention and resources. Biological warfare is a prime
example.
2. Emerging new operational conceptsderived from synergies
among joint operations, decision superiority, network-centric
operations, effects-based thinking, and rapid decisive
operationswith the potential to create revolutionary new
military capabilities.
3. Greater uncertainty about the future security environment
and the concomitant need to plan more in terms of
capabilities rather than to meet the threat. The S&T
enterprise will need to be more nimble and to pay more
attention to investment strategies designed to hedge against
future uncertainties.
4. A radically different defense-relevant technology base than
had existed during the Cold War. This technology base used
to be largely government owned or controlled and is now
largely commercial, global, and increasingly not well
understood by DoD decision makers. No only must DoD
better utilize this resource, but it must understand and
address its ready availability to potential adversaries.
To meet these challenges and grasp the opportunities presented by
the new security environment, the task force identified five course
changes to guide the S&T enterprise:
More aggressive exploration of emerging technologies with
yet uncertain military implicationspromote discovery.
Much more focus on the critical enablers of revolutionary
military capabilitiespromote transformation.
Much more rapid and timely technology insertiontime
matters.
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Creation and consideration of many more optionsto deal
with greater uncertainty.
More attention to the technologically feasible and responsive
threatsto gain a deeper understanding of how potential
adversaries can exploit new technologies.
This brief introduction has identified challenges and opportunities of
the new security environment and offered a set of new directions to guide
the conduct and content of the S&T enterprise. The remainder of this
chapter focuses on two high-leverage areas and makes specific
recommendations to move the S&T enterprise in these directions.
32

The two areas are:
How to enable S&T activities to promote both much more
rapid technology insertion and the transformation of U.S.
military capabilities. The task force believes the answer is a
greatly expanded use of the spiral development process that
integrates S&T with the acquisition and requirements
processes.
How to gain much more understanding about, and access to,
the waves of commercial technology.
In addition, this chapter briefly addresses a long-standing concern:
How to assure the quality of DoDs science and engineering
workforce and the relevance of the Departments laboratory
system.
The sections covering these three areas are followed by a brief
discussion of resource and funding implications. As background, the task
force reviewed over 30 prior Defense Science Board studies relevant to
S&T investment strategies and show in Table 4-1. Much of the discussion
that follows has been presented before by many of these DSBs. However,
many of the earlier findings and recommendations have not yet been
implemented to the extent envisioned, though they remain sound, relevant
andin the view of the task forcestill needed.

32
This chapter reflects the work of and was prepared by the Investment Strategy Panel of the 2001
DSB Summer Study task force. The panel membership, along with the government advisors
and staff who contributed to this effort, is contained in Annex B.
Chapter IV.

153
Table 4-1. Prior DSB Studies Relating to Investment Strategies
Tech Base S&T Programs
R&D Strategy for 1990s (1990)
Investment for 21
st
Century Military
Superiority (1995)
Tactics and Technology for 21
st
Century
Military Superiority (1996)
Defense S&T for the 21
st
Century (1998)
Defense Technology Strategies (1999)
Adequacy of DoD S&T Programs (2000)
Low Observables Technology (1990,
1993)
Joint Advanced Strike Technology
Program (1994)
Unique Surveillance Technologies
(1995)
Global Positioning System (1995,
1997, 2000)
Breakthrough Technologies (1995)
Combat ID (1996)
ATR (1997)
Underground Facilities (1998)
Transition of Technology DoD Labs
R&D Strategy for 1990s (1990)
R&D Investment Strategy for the 21st
Century (1995)
Defense Technology Strategies (1999)
Defense Laboratory Management
(1994, 2000)
Role of FFRDCs (1995, 1997)
Human Resources (2000)
Commercial Industry Participation Access to Commercial Technology
Microelectronics Research Facility (1992)
Acquiring Defense Software
Commercially (1994, 2000)
Open Systems (1998)
Globalization and Security (1998)
Technical Capabilities of Non-DoD
Providers (2000)
ACTDs Acquisition & Procurement
Fieldable Prototypes
R&D Strategy for the 1990s (1990)
R&D Investment Strategy for the 21st
Century (1995)
Defense Acquisition Reform Phases I,
II, III, IV, R&D (1993-1999)
Engineering in the Manufacturing
Processes (1993)
Modeling and Simulation (1993)
Outsourcing and Privitization (1996)
Investment Strategy for DARPA (1999)
Health of Defense Industry (2000)

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EMBED S&T ACTIVITIES
WITHIN AN EXPANDED
SPIRAL DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
The transformation of DoDs S&T enterprise must be considered in
the larger context of the relationship of S&T activities to DoDs
requirements and acquisition processes. Two major themes are
fundamental to transforming the S&T enterprise
First, S&T activities should be structured to enable transformation
of U.S. military capabilities. Transformation occurs when major changes
in capabilities enable new ways to fight. Thus, S&T activities should
provide not merely incremental improvements but the new operational
capabilities and concepts needed to meet the security challenges of the
new century.
S&T is a critical enabler of such new capabilities and concepts, but
only an enabler. Technology will make the greatest impact when doctrine,
organization, training, and the critical human dimensions including,
leadership skills, co-evolve with technology and materiel to foster new
operational capabilities and concepts. Such co-evolution requires close
and iterative interaction between technologists and those who develop
military concepts, not a sequential toss the requirements over the
transom process.
Second, time matters. The Department needs to shorten the time it
takes to field new military capabilities for many reasons. DoD faces
clever, resourceful adversaries with access to militarily relevant
commercial technology. Intelligence capabilities may not be able to
provide much advance warning of new threats from a diverse set of state
and non-state adversaries. Moreover, protracted acquisition programs are
an inefficient use of precious resources. Stretching the duration of
programs often precludes the incorporation of more modern technology
into systems.
The Departments S&T and acquisition processes need to become
more agile, and thus better suited to the greater uncertainty the Department
faces. In DoD, the transition time required for advanced technology
systems to be made available to forces should be as powerful a driver as
time to market is in commercial high-technology industries. This is not
yet the case.
An effective S&T enterprise should be both opportunistic (technology
push) and responsive (demand pull). The once strong ties among S&T
providers, system developers, and end-users appear to have been eroding
Chapter IV.

155
for quite some time. It is understandable that the S&T base is of marginal
significance when system development programs are not driven by
efficient use of investment funds, and are allowed to run for one to two
decades before producing a useful product. In the absence of demand
pull, the S&T base has become characterized by (1) a lack of direction
and focus, (2) less than uniformly high quality in its programs and work,
and (3) still inadequate exploitation of commercial products, technology,
processes, and expertise.
In addition, a major hurdle to both fostering transformation and
shortening transition is to bring together four communitiesthe user,
S&T, acquisition, and test communitiesthat too often operate
independently, as characterized in Figure 4-1.
Figure 4-1. Current DoD Transition of Technology

As an example of the problem, consider the advanced concept
technology demonstration. This activity was established almost a decade
ago to facilitate rapid transition of mature technology to the field.
However, while ACTDs bring together the S&T and user communities,
involvement of the acquisition and test communities remains weak. The
transition is stretched out beyond the original intent and a system
development and demonstration phase is the rule rather than the exception.
The good enough objective of the ACTD process is often dismissed
because of insufficient attention to training, doctrine, spares, and the
ilities.
Different people, mindsets, funding
elements
Real cooperation exception not rule
Over the transom vice spiral
development
S&T
Acq
User
Test
Handovers between four separate
and distinct communities
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The Department can resolve the apparent tension between the twin
goals of transforming military capability (implying revolutionary
capabilities) and shortening the time to get products into the field. The
resolution will occur through the widespread and aggressive
implementation of the practices of spiral development, a common
commercial practice used for development of software and hardware.
Spiral development is key to both transformation of forces and transition
of technology to the field, and the task force strongly endorses DoDs
recent moves toward its implementation. The Under Secretary of Defense
for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (USD (AT&L)) has
institutionalized this approach in directives, and the Vice Chairman, Joint
Chiefs of Staff has done so in the requirements process. However, thus far
the use of spiral development appears to be more theory than practice, still
the exception rather than the norm. Its use needs to be greatly accelerated
and expanded.
Spiral development is defined by several characteristics. First, spiral
development is a continuous, iterative process linking users, developers,
acquirers, and testers. Second, technology and operational options are
explored via experiments and advanced concept technology
demonstrations. Third, demonstrated technology is rapidly incorporated
into Block 1 systems in the field. Finally, more advanced versions of
the technology are deployed in subsequent blocks (continuing research
and development, deployment, and support processes).
Spiral development offers a means to achieve revolutionary
capabilities via evolutionary and disciplined processes. It can lead to
exploration and demonstration more options, more rapid fielding of new
capabilities, and lower development cost and risks.
Figure 4-2 depicts the dynamic and iterative process recommended by
the task force. The new features enumerated on the left are discussed in
more detail in the following sections.
SHORTEN THE DEVELOPMENT TIME TO
NO MORE THAN FIVE YEARS__________________________
The USD (AT&L) has issued a directive calling for the engineering
and manufacturing development (EMD) process to be reduced to an
average of seven years, from the 10-year-or-more norms of the past
several decades. The task force recommends going further reducing this
time to a maximum of five years, and even fewer for systems smaller
than Major Defense Acquisition Programs. This mandate would make
the S&T base a critical antecedent for the development and acquisition of
Chapter IV.

157
military systems. Only when the relevant S&T base has become mature
can the system pass through EMD in no more than five years, as both
commercial and military experience has demonstrated.
Figure 4-2. The Expanded Spiral Development Process

In addition to establishing a mature S&T base, several other factors are
essential for rapid execution of a system development program:
1. The necessary competence and capability to develop and
manufacture the system must be available. The capability
will draw heavily upon the S&T base, and on the
manufacturing infrastructure and sub-system suppliers.
2. The system acquisition authority must be dedicated to
acquiring the system. If interest in the system acquisition is
weak or dilatory, the acquisition community will not be
able to generate the resources and focus to develop the
system.
3. The total funding to take the system through EMD must be
identified and available. The DoD budget always extends
beyond five years, so the EMD budget will be known, fully
identified, and programmed at the outset. Budget or time
over-runs should be presumptive causes for system
development termination.
Red Thinking
&
Red Teams
S&T
flashes of insight)
ACTD-like
activities
(Augment)
Limited Buys
S&T
6.4a
6.4a
MS-A
MS-C
MS-B
5
yrs
Block 1
Block 2
Block 3
Field in
Spiral
Development
Whats New
acquisition cycle
More experiments
Red teaming
Expanded ACTDs as
an S&T customer
Role for Force
Transformation Office
More attention to Joint
customers
Blue
Thinking &
Operations
Rapid Acquisition
Funding
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4. The acquisition authority and the system user community
must be willing to accept the production and deployment of
an initial version of a system, even though more advanced
versions can be imagined, with the understanding that
through spiral development, subsequent design cycles will
produce more capable versions of the system.
Major costs are incurred when the EMD process lasts longer than it
must, including (1) the cost of sustaining the infrastructure necessary for
carrying out the EMD, and (2) the cost of money invested but not yielding
a useful product for an extended period of time. Consequently, major
savings can be achieved over time just from shortening the EMD process.
PLACE MORE EMPHASIS
ON EXPERIMENTATION_______________________________
Operational experimentation is an essential ingredient of
transformation and the mechanism to explore coherent and connected
changes to doctrine, organization, technology, training, and the other
human dimensions needed to produce new warfighting capabilities and
concepts. Experiments differ from exercises and demonstrations.
Experiments, searching for breakthrough change, are more speculative
endeavors than ACTDs. Experiments fail only when nothing of
significance is learned. Concepts can fail. Indeed a major purpose of
experiments is to challenge proposed concepts for vulnerabilities in order
to learn how to make them more robust or discard them for more
promising alternatives.
Experiments need not be huge affairs. Most experimentation can be
relatively small in scale, including tens or hundreds of participants rather
than thousands. Collaborative interaction between technologists and
operators is one priority. Through campaigns of aggressive
experimentation, many ideas can be pursued.
Successful experimentation requires an environment that fosters
innovation, competition of ideas, and risk taking. It also requires
including some operational units at the heart of experiments; without
them, the doctrine, organization, and other dimensions of new military
capabilities will not evolve along with technology and materiel. Examples
of units already used in such a capacity include the 9th ID/ADEA at Ft.
Lewis, the F-117 squadron used in the 1980s, and elements of the Armys
4th ID used in the Armys recent Digitization efforts. In addition,
dedicated and high-quality red teams and opposing forces are needed to
Chapter IV.

159
make experimentation successfula topic discussed further in the next
section.
DoD must develop and innovatively use simulations and synthetic
environments that allow real people to experiment with virtual systems.
The usefulness of virtual systems should not be dismissed because of
artificialities; all experimental venues short of war are artificial in one way
or anothereven field experiments with real troops and equipment bring
their own artificialities.
Recommendation: The Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS),
should form experimental units in each Service and Joint
Forces Command (JFCOM).
Units should have dedicated command staffs.
Forces should be assigned to these units as appropriate for
each experimental series.
The CJCS should form corresponding, dedicated operational
red teams.
Senior officials should be assigned responsibility for
fostering operational innovation and full use of
experimentation.
- The task force suggests Vice Chiefs and J-8 with
accountable responsibility.
The USD (AT&L) should provide funds for joint & multi-
Service experimentation and fund and support increased use of
ACTDs.
INCREASE THE USE OF RED TEAMING ____________________
A necessary component of spiral development is extensive use of red
teams, particularly those designed to serve as surrogate adversaries. Red
teams are needed to challenge ideas and concepts throughout the entire
technology development process.
Too often, the red team is not considered at all, is treated as an
afterthought, involves adversary play that is merely scripted (otherwise the
uncertainty involved might spoil the demonstration), or consists of pitting
presumed future capabilities against todays adversary. None of these
approaches will lead to the robust capabilities and concepts needed against
real-world adaptive and resourceful adversaries. Thus, an essential
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ingredient of spiral development is the presence of red teams serving as
surrogate adversaries.
Effective red teaming will be a challenge. A major difficulty is to
capture the cultural and social perspectives of potential adversaries and not
merely a mirror image of U.S. attitudes. While the red team should have a
considerable degree of independence from the concept and technology
developer and other program advocates, the red team must also interact
with the concept and technology developers to avoid becoming mere
sideline critics.
Recommendation: Increase the use of red teaming in
experimentation and other phases of spiral development. Red
teaming also needs an advocate in the system to ensure quality,
relevance, and the right mix of independence from and
interaction with the concept and program advocates.
EXPAND ACTD EFFORTS_____________________________
One of the goals elaborated by the USD (AT&L) is to encourage the
exploitation of mature technology. One way to encourage such use is to
increase the demand. ACTDs are customers of mature technology and
thus increasing the ACTD activity will provide a stronger customer pull
for such technology. The task force appreciates that ACTDs are not the
appropriate venue for all development activities; but while it did not
attempt to determine the ultimate limits of ACTD-type activity, the task
force is confident the current activity can be expanded by at least a factor
of two without fear of hitting any such limits.
The enhancement of ACTD activities should not be limited to merely
increasing the number of ACTD projects. Some of the additional funds in
an expanded ACTD activity should be allocated to preparing the results of
individual projects for transition to acquisition and other downstream
activities. This transition can be facilitated by securing greater
involvement of the acquisition and test communities in ACTD projects.
Recommendation: Increase funding for ACTDs by a factor of
two.
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ESTABLISH AND INCREASE BRIDGE FUNDING
FOR SERVICE AND FOR JOINT ACTIVITIES _________________
Sometimes demonstrations and experiments seem to become stuck in a
circular process rather than the desired spiral development process. The
Services experiment and learn, but lack mechanisms to promote and
transfer what it learns. As a result the Services tend to conduct similar
experiments or demonstrations to learn the same thing again and again.
The Army is successfully using its Rapid Acquisition Program funds to
help transition promising results from experiments and demonstrations to
fielded capabilities.
Recommendation: Expand the use of rapid acquisition funds,
particularly applied to joint needs where the processes and
organizations are least mature and least effective.
ESTABLISH A STRONG ROLE FOR THE NEW OFFICE
OF FORCE TRANSFORMATION IN FOSTERING
TRANSITION AS WELL AS NEW THINKING_________________
Last fall, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld established the Office of
Force Transformation, directed by VADM Art Cebrowski, USN (ret.). The
task force believes that the creation of this office offers an opportunity to
implement several key elements of the strategy proposed in this report.
The task force suggests that rather than focusing only on farther out,
so-called out of the box ideas, the new office be granted the authority
and resourcesboth staff and fundingto push transformation on a much
broader front. Specifically, the task force recommends that the new
offices responsibilities include the following:
Recommendation: Assign the Office of Force Transformation
responsibility for sponsoring experiments.
Identify and support worthy experimentation candidates.
Have funds and lead a non-bureaucratic process to couple
S&T products (prototypes and surrogates) to warfighters.
Focus on joint and multi-Service needs, working closely with
JFCOM. Generally, JFCOM has mostly emphasized large
annual events (although it is increasing attention to the
smaller, and potentially higher-risk limited objective
experiments).
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Recommendation: Assign the Director of the Force Transfor-
mation Office responsibility for ACTD.
Experiments and ACTDs differ, but share important similarities as
well. The two are similar in that they involve a close relationship between
technologists and operators. A key difference, however, is that ACTDs
are further downstreamcloser to fieldingand indeed most often have a
requirement for field-ready results. Experiments tend to be more
speculative. ACTDs generally work with prototypes, experiments with
surrogates.
The similarities and differences can be exploited in the service of
transformation by bringing the two activities closer together
organizationally and functionally. The two can feed each other. The
appropriate next step following an experiment may often be to conduct
one or more ACTDs. Furthermore, the team assembled to conduct an
ACTD is often trained and well prepared to explore concepts that are more
speculative, via surrogates in experiments.
Tying the ACTD programs with the Office of Force Transformation
also offers the opportunity to identify and oversee ACTDs within a larger
transformation context, thus more closely coupling the thrust provided
by multiple ACTDs with the vector provided by a transformation vision.
Recommendation: Provide the Director of Force Transfor-
mation responsibility for managing a Bridge Fund account.
As already discussed, a major deficiency of the current technology
development process, particularly for joint needs, is the lack of
mechanisms to pull forward promising results from experiments and
ACTDs. The Office of Force Transformation would be an appropriate
place to provide the funds for this functioncreating a program similar to
the Army's Rapid Acquisition Program.
Recommendation: The Secretary of Defense should empower
the new Office of Force Transformation with the authority,
staff, and funding to sponsor the prototypes (real and virtual),
surrogates, ACTDs, and modeling and simulation for
transformation experimentation, demonstration, and testing,
especially multi-Service and joint.
- Funding should grow to $200 million per year for
experiments; to $250 million per year for ACTDs.
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Recommendation: Fund the Office of Force Transformation to
sponsor the new Joint Warfighting Rapid Acquisition Program
to speed fielding high-pay-off products (not limited to materiel)
from joint experimentation and ACTDs.
- Funding should grow to $150 million per year.
STRENGTHEN S&T SUPPORT TO JOINT AND
NATIONAL-LEVEL CUSTOMERS ________________________
The S&T community needs to pay more attention to the needs of
future joint and national-level customers in addition to Service-specific
needs.
In critical areas of joint concern, specifically joint command and
control; joint connectivity and interoperability;, and intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance (including the associated sensor
management, fusion, and exploitation tools) lack a 6.4 development
organizationthat is, an S&T customer. The absence of an organization to
serve as the S&T customer implies a lack of support to warfighters in their
number one area of concern, namely joint command and control; weak
paths to the user for S&T in these critical areas; weak joint pull on S&T;
and no integrated view of systems or solutions. This has long been
recognized as a problem but progress has been discouraging.
The major national-level concern that requires S&T support is the
biological warfare threat (covered in another section of this report).
However, the task force focused on recommendations for joint command
and control, since it is so fundamental to transforming U.S. military
capabilities.
Recommendation: Assign JFCOM the responsibility to:
Develop and test joint command-and-control system
prototypes using spiral development.
Establish a standing experimental Joint Task Force
Headquarters at JFCOM.
Work with regional combatant commanders to transition the
joint command and control system to them, tailoring the
capabilities to each.
This formidable task will severely challenge the current capabilities
and organization of JFCOM. Relieving CINCJFCOM of his
responsibilities as the Supreme Allied Commander, Atlantic, would free
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him to focus on transformation. JFCOM will also need access to additional
resources and partners.
Recommendation: Provide JFCOM the technical, system
engineering, and acquisition capabilities and partners needed to
accomplish these responsibilities for joint command and control:
Partner with the Defense Advanced Research Projects
Agency to produce a flow of new technology.
Create a system engineering capability at JFCOM to provide
configuration control and other system engineering
functions.
Create a Joint Program Office to acquire and deploy a joint
command and control capability.
Partner with a Federally Funded Research and Development
Center for technical support.
The task force also recommends providing Category 6.4 funds to the
regional combatant commanders to address near-term joint problems
unique to their area of responsibility and to support JFCOMs
experimental and prototype development efforts on behalf of future
combatant commanders.
EXPLOIT COMMERCIAL AND
OTHER NON-DOD SOURCES
OF TECHNOLOGY
The case for greater exploitation of commercial technology, processes,
and products by DoD has been made many times, including by previous
DSB task forces. Recommendations of these studies have since been
adopted, some into federal acquisition policies. Nevertheless, much more
still needs to be done, as the Department continues to deny itself access to
many industries.
The trend to commercial leadership in information technology,
biology, microelectronics and other important technology areas has, if
anything, accelerated. The emphasis on reducing DoDs own time-to-
market intensifies the need for broader and deeper DoD access into the
commercial technology base. Because this technology base is increasingly
global and available to potential adversaries, exploitation of this base by
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DoD becomes critically important in order to understand how adversaries
might threaten the United States with these technologies.
The aerospace industry, which has historically provided advancements
and new technologies to DoD, has consolidated significantly. Its primary
focus is now the application of military-specific technology, and to some
extent commercial technology, to military systems. As the supply base for
this technology shrinks, it becomes increasingly important to improve the
ability and incentives for non-aerospace commercial companies to support
DoD.
The Department needs to find ways to more aggressively leverage
commercial technology in order to exploit the very best technologies at
affordable prices and to understand potential threats. A complementary
multi-pronged approach is required. It must encompass the following:
Reducing the barriers that inhibit commercial firms from
working with DoD contractors and with DoD directly.
Motivating DoD to turn to commercial products, practices,
and processes as the norm rather than the exception.
Fostering relationships with critical technology sectors so
they are motivated to apply their knowledge and personnel to
address grave national security threats (the potential for
success in this area may have increased since September 11,
2001) and to consider DoD needs in new product
development.
Each of these strategies is discussed in greater detail in the next
sections.
REMOVE BARRIERS AND DISINCENTIVES
FOR COMMERCIAL FIRMS _____________________________
Many commercial companies and laboratories avoid doing business
with the federal government for three primary reasons. First, the
requirement that commercial firms submit cost data that is not normally
generated by their accounting systems and is often considered proprietary.
Second, the requirement for access to and, in some cases, ownership in
intellectual property. Finally, commercial businesses are concerned about
potential liability (legal as well as corporate reputation) based on
understanding and complying with complex DoD regulations and policies.
In addition, for many of these companies, an opportunity to do
business with DoD is neither significant nor attractive. Since commercial
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companies are accustomed to selling to customers who buy their products,
they are rarely attracted to DoD, which essentially acquires materiel.
Although many commercial technologies can provide significant
potential benefit to the military sector, most companies are reluctant to
accept contracts covered by the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulations.
This is especially true when procuring R&D from commercial
laboratories.
Previous studies have found that the issue of intellectual property
rights is often a significant deterrent to commercial firms doing business
with DoD (see Performing Collaborative Research with Nontraditional
Military Suppliers, RAND Corporation). Intellectual property is the life-
blood of high=technology industries and provides significant competitive
advantage. Success in these commercial markets depends largely on
superior product performance and a strong intellectual property rights
position. Intellectual property establishes the companys sole-source
position within a market; this position in turn leads to higher profit
margins.
The current federal intellectual property rights policies are primarily
based upon the Bayh-Dole Act of 1980 (by Presidential Memoranda; see
35 U.S.C. 202-204). Initially, the act applied only to small businesses and
nonprofit organizations, but it was extended to all contractors in 1983. The
act provides that title to any invention or discovery made or first actually
reduced to practice under any contract, grant, or cooperative agreement
between any federal agency and any contractor may be retained by the
contractor subject to the right of the government to a non-exclusive,
nontransferable, irrevocable, worldwide, paid-up license to practice or
have practiced for or on behalf of the government.
The act was designed to enable the government to secure parts and
assemblies for weapon systems from multiple sources. Through specific
clauses in the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation, the government
reduces the act to practice by specifying ownership to technical data rights
(covering trade secrets and process information). Though the government
rarely asserts its march in rights, the threat of such action is significant
enough that most commercial companies do not choose to do business
with DoD for fear of sharing valuable intellectual property with their
competitors.
Recommendation: DoD should develop and implement
acquisition policies and processes that remove barriers and
create incentives for commercial corporations to support DoD
needs.
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DoD should develop new policies for such issues as ownership of
intellectual property, liability indemnification, accounting, audit,
allowable costs, disclosure requirements, and hurdles to foreign ownership
and control. Use of commercial parts may not provide a sufficient
motivation for prime contractors because there is little incentive to change
or save costs in existing programs and proprietary rights.
PROVIDE STRONGER MOTIVATION TO THE DOD
REQUIREMENTS AND ACQUISITION COMMUNITIES
TO USE COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCTS _______
Through various policy initiatives, the USD (AT&L) has made
significant progress over the past several years in promoting greater use of
commercial technology in weapons acquisition programs. Increased focus
on procuring commercial items for DoD systems is reflected in DoD
Directive 5000.1, which states that using commercial items in DoD
systems is the preferred approach for meeting operational requirements.
Though the leadership within USD (AT&L) has established clear
directives for the use of commercial items, the acquisition community has
not been as quick to embrace the new acquisition policies. The DSB task
force report, Impact of DoD Policies/Practices on the Health/
Competitiveness of U.S. Defense Industry (April 2000), presented the
following findings:
The DoD acquisition process continues to be unreasonably risk-
averse, which inhibits innovation and access to creative, high
technology solutions. Senior DoD leadership is focusing in the
right direction, but the reality at the workforce level (in
government and to a degree in industry) is different.
The acquisition workforce works under constant scrutiny and
criticism, and there is little perceived support for calculated
risks.
The oversight community, at the operating level, continues to
operate in a gotcha! manner, with little understanding of
or sympathy for the changing dynamics of the market or
industry.
This environment inhibits creativity in the DoD industrial
base and helps drive suppliers out of the DoD market.
A number of specific obstacles hinder accession of commercial items
for DoD use. For example, the requirements process rarely considers cost
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and design tradeoffs or adequately evaluates existing commercial
technologies. The acquisition workforce lacks experience with and
knowledge of commercial markets. Decisions made on commercial item
determination are inconsistent; market research is weak; and there is
confusion concerning how to price commercial items. Moreover, DoD
procedures regarding commercial items are inconsistently applied
(applicability of Federal Acquisition Regulation Part 12 determinations).
Finally, risks and costs are associated with testing, qualifying, and
inserting commercial components.
Using commercial technology, DoD will have better access to
replacement and repair parts and to softwareincluding state-of-the-art
technologysince new versions are constantly being introduced into the
commercial marketplace. By taking the necessary steps to use drop-in
replacement components or commercial off-the-shelf products and using
software, DoD will greatly alleviate its problems with providing custom
replacement components and software that falls far short of the state of the
art. Since some of these components will come from foreign
manufacturing facilities or even foreign corporations, systems and
processes will need to be developed for wartime needs; given the current
foreign content and ownership status, this need is present today.
Recommendation: DoD must change its acquisition system and
mandate that using commercial practices, components,
materials, software, tools, and processes will be the norm.
Justification for non-commercial DoD-specific acquisition of
technology should be considered appropriate, and in fact required, when
DoD-specific requirements (such as stealth) are needed. Program
managerswith support from prime contractorsshould be responsible
for ensuring that the commercial content mandate is met. These policies
should also flow down to the subcontractors. In addition, DoD should
make wider use of Section 845 procurements.
33

33
Other transactions are instruments other than a contract, grant, or cooperative agreement for
carrying out research projects. The authoritys primary purpose is to help broaden DoDs
technology and industrial base by allowing development and use of instruments that reduce
barriers to participation in defense research by commercial firms that traditionally not done
business with the government. Section 845 of the National Defense Authorization Act for
Fiscal Year 1994 augmented the other transactions authority by authorizing DARPA to use
other transactions for prototype projects directly relevant to weapon systems proposed to be
acquired or developed by DoD. This extended authority was later provided to the military
departments and other designated officials.
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MOTIVATE CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY SECTORS TO HELP
ADDRESS NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES______________
In the commercial sector, many large corporationsU.S. and foreign-
ownedhave evolved into multinational organizations that are expanding
their business, manufacturing, and technology globally. With the
dispersion of technology and the speed of modern communications, U.S.
adversarieslarge and smallwill have rapid access to commercial
technology that can considerably enhance their military capability.
If the United States does not develop the means to track and use this
technology, our country will be put at a significant disadvantage. For
certain key technologiessuch as microelectronics, software,
biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, robotics, and materialsDoD is now a
minor player in development and use.
In particular, DoD needs to build a strong partnership with the
bioscience and pharmaceutical industries for both R&D and supply. This
requirement is so important that Secretary Rumsfeld's understanding of the
pharmaceutical industry should be leveraged into meetings with the
industry leaders so that they can establish an NSTAC-like relationship.
NEXT STEPS FOR THE USD (AT&L)
AND SECRETARY OF DEFENSE __________________________
Recommendation: The USD (AT&L) should
Mandate the use of commercial practices, tools, techniques,
establishing commercial technology as the norm and
requiring justification for DoD-specific technology.
- Implement at the program-manager level through the prime
contractor.
Develop and implement acquisition processes that remove
barriers (identified in past studies) and create incentives for
commercial corporations to support DoD.
Personally engage with bioscience and pharmaceutical
industries to build relationships with DoD.
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- Take advantage of the Secretarys understanding of the
industry.
- Create effective partnerships between DoD and these
industries and research institutes.
- Consider a NSTAC-like relationship.
Forge close relationship with the Secretary of Health and
Human Services (National Institute of Health, Center for
Disease Control).
MAKE THE DOD LABORATORIES
MORE EFFICIENT AND
MORE PRODUCTIVE
IDENTIFICATION OF DOD LABORATORIES________________
Generally, DoD laboratories, refers to a collection of organizations
that manage and consume S&T funds (6.1, 6.2, and 6.3 funds). These
laboratories include 40 to 50 organizations at some 78 to 84 locations; the
exact number depends on the specific definition. They include
organizations that vary a great deal in size, mission, and the degree to
which S&T funding contributes to their total funding. The range of
organizations includes in-house research establishmentssuch as the
Armys Walter Reed Medical Center and Research, Development and
Engineering Centers that use a smaller fraction of S&T fundsand certain
test organizations that manage some S&T funds incidental to performing
specific tests for S&T projects.
FUNDING OF DOD LABORATORIES______________________
Much of the funding that flows through or is expended in DoD
laboratories is not S&T funding. The majority of funding for DoD
laboratories comes from non-S&T, research, development, test and
evaluation (RDT&E) funds (6.4 and 6.5), and operations and maintenance
funds. However, the majority of S&T funds, about $5 billion of the $9
billion, flow through DoD laboratories according to the S&T financial
reporting system. This figure includes the portion of DARPA S&T
funding that is formally transferred to DoD laboratories for execution; it
does not include funds that DARPA places directly but asks a DoD
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laboratory to help manage. Of the $5 billon in S&T funding flowing into
DoD laboratories, about half ($2.5 billion) is consumed in performance of
in-house operations and research.
Thus, the DoD S&T laboratories manage more than half of all DoD
S&T funds and internally consume one-quarter of those funds. The
quality of the laboratories is therefore a major influence on the quality of
the S&T performed across DoD.
Non-research activities performed by these organizations include
engineering development, test support, in-service support and engineering,
and support to the acquisition process. In many cases, the laboratory
predominantly focuses on support to formal acquisition programs, and the
S&T activity is relatively small, though essential to the overall mission.
PERSONNEL ISSUES AT DOD LABORATORIES ______________
The total staff within DoD laboratories that are coded as scientists
and engineers (S&E) number some 25,000 individuals; the total DoD-
wide scientific and engineering population is about 114,000 individuals.
These other scientists and engineers are primarily engaged in support of
acquisition, logistics, and operations. Of the 25,000 S&E personnel in
DoD laboratories, the majority work only part-time on S&T activities
because their time is heavily committed to acquisition programs.
As a result of extensive intermingling of S&T and non-S&T activities
at the organizational level and extensive crossing of the S&T lines by
individuals, efforts to improve recruitment within the more research-
oriented laboratories run headlong into concerns of fairness and
discrimination.
Clearly, DoD laboratories form an essential and vital link in the DoD
S&T program. They require a quality workforce not only to perform in-
house work but also to manage and direct those S&T activities that are
performed on contract. That quality workforce is also essential to support
DoDs acquisition programs.
Numerous prior studies by the DSB and others have raised serious
concerns about the current quality and qualifications of the workforce;
more importantly, there is concern about the Departments ability to
recruit and retain quality personnel in the future. Some laboratories have
made heavy use of non-traditional sources of personnel, such as interns,
those hired under the Intergovernmental Personnel Act, and visiting
scientists. These measures have helped to a limited extent.
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The governments reluctance to establish special arrangements for
S&E personnel is widespread and deeply ingrained. Many reforms have
been promulgated, but they have not been fully implemented. At the core
of such reluctance is the difficulty of deciding where to draw the line.
Some S&E personnel work alongside non-S&E personnel, while some
S&E personnel are not performing functions that require S&E
qualifications. Thus, it is very difficult to fairly administer many reforms
that otherwise appear useful.
Nonetheless, after due consideration of the value and the difficulties,
prior reviews of the needs of DoD laboratories have uniformly called for
serious reform; the only differences are in the details and in the degree of
reform deemed achievable. The task force believes the Department should
conduct an in-depth review of each of the DoD laboratories to review its
activities, understand its functions, and understand its workforce. On the
basis of this information, the Department can reshape the laboratory
structure. Personnel, activities, and facilities involved in acquisition can
be transferred into acquisition organizations. Laboratories with a strong
S&T or technology orientation, with significant in-house research, should
be moved to university management to relieve them from the restrictions
of the civil service personnel system. Other laboratories might be
considered for privatization, consolidation, or closure.
Whether or not the Department undertakes such a review, the task
force recommends the Department implement the recommendations of the
most recent Defense Science Board study of the laboratories, Efficient
Utilization of Defense Laboratories. This study provides an in-depth
review of these past studies and a thoughtful set of detailed
recommendations for reform.
Recommendation: The USD (AT&L), with direction of the
Secretary of Defense, should direct DDR&E to do the following
Review each laboratory in detail and proceed with each
individually.
- Administratively transfer personnel not involved in S&T to
acquisition organizations.
- Move personnel doing significant in-house research or
technology development to university management.
- Privatize, consolidate, or close other laboratories.
Complete the review and begin taking action within nine
months, with an end goal of 2005.
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In any case, especially for those laboratories likely to remain
status quo, implement recommendations of most recent DSB
study (Efficient Utilization of Defense Laboratories, October
2000).
- Focus on personnel and quality improvements.
ALLOCATION AND
LEVEL OF S&T FUNDING
ALLOCATION OF FUNDING _____________________________
In fiscal year 2001, DoD allocated about 22% ($41 billion) of its total
budget to research, development, testing, and evaluation of new
technologies and systems. Science and technology funding of
approximately $9 billion represents about 22% of the RDT&E budget and
2.7% of the total DoD budget, as Figures 4-3 and 4-4 illustrate.
The S&T funding includes categories 6.1 (Basic Research), 6.2
(Applied Research), and 6.3 (Advanced Technology Development). The
remainder of the RDT&E budget allocates about $31.85 billion for System
Development and Demonstration (6.46.7 funding categories), as well as a
small amount (about $150 million) for Rapid Acquisition Funds.
Figure 4-3. RDT&E Funds as Percentage of FY01 DoD Budget

RDT&E

12%

Other

Programs

87.6%
AD&D

9.7%

S&T

2.7%

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Figure 4-4. S&T Portion of DoD RDT&E Funding
SD&D*
78%
S&T
22%
*Includes $150 million for Rapid Acquisition Funds

As Figure 4-5 shows, the funding allocated for S&T has decreased
both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the DoD budget over the past
decade.
The DoD S&T programs are further classified into six categories:
Sustaining S&T. Ongoing programs in technologies of
historical interest to the military, such as material science,
information technology, electronics, and sensors.
Focused S&T Programs. Research areas that have or should
have a central focus and coordination across DoD, such as
biological warfare defense and S&T on intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance.
New S&T Projects. Technologies not previously funded that
have significant military benefits.
Long-Term Research. Technologies that have the potential
of being disruptive in nature but are many years away from
any practical application. Examples include nanotechnology
and quantum computing, discussed in the previous chapter.
S&T Experiments.
ACTDs.

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Figure 4-5. DoD Science and Technology Funding

2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01
Fiscal Year
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Total S&T S&T/DoD Top Line
S&T TOA
S&T Percentage
DoD S&T, %age of DoD TOA
Total S&T S&T/DoD Top Line
S&T TOA
S&T Percentage
Funding and Percent of Total Obligation Authority

M
i
l
l
i
o
n
s

P
e
r
c
e
n
t

ACHIEVE AND SUSTAIN
THE 3 PERCENT S&T FUNDING LEVEL ___________________
There is no magic formula to determine the optimum level of S&T
funding. Several recent studies have addressed issue. In its report, Defense
S&T for the 21st Century (1998), the DSB force recommended an S&T
funding level equivalent to 3 percent of the total DoD budget. This figure
is in keeping with the research and development budgets of various
commercial industries, in terms of the percentage of sales spent on
research and development.
The task force agrees that 3 percent is a reasonable funding level.
DoD leadership has concurred in recent testimony to Congress.
Furthermore, support appears to exist within DoD and on Capitol Hill for
achieving this level based upon historical DoD S&T budgets. Therefore
the task force recommends that the Secretary of Defense achieve and
sustain the 3 percent S&T funding level (of top-line DoD budget),
recommended by the prior DSB study.
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REALLOCATION OF FUNDING AND
REPRIORITIZATION OF EFFORTS _______________________
In addition to sustaining a 3-percent level of DoD S&T funding, the
task force recommends reallocating funds to promote transformation
within the DoD S&T community. This transformation would emphasize
four elements:
The integrated process of operational experimentation and
spiral development.
More rapid and effective transition of technology to the
warfighter (through strong customer influence).
Exploitation of commercial technology.
Targeted funding of specific S&T initiatives (those areas
discussed in the previous chapters of this report):
- Defending against biological warfare defense.
- Finding difficult targets (intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance S&T; micro-sensor networks).
- Making timely, accurate decisions (decision tools, multi-
player gaming).
- Enabling high-risk operations (human performance,
unmanned systems).
To speed up the transition of technology and motivate
experimentation, the task force recommends that ACTD funds be moved
from under S&T (6.3) funds and placed under 6.4A. The task force also
recommends that the current funding for ACTDs ($500 million) be
doubled to $1 billion. Other recommendations include allocating $200
million for 6.4A experiments and an additional $200 million for rapid
acquisition funds (to $350 million).
New S&T initiatives, totaling $2 billion, would be funded within the
$9 billion S&T budget by implementing the following strategies:
Move and fund ACTDs under 6.4A and return current
funding to 6.3 (~$500 million/year).
Increase S&T from 2.7% to 3.0% (~$250 million /year).
Reprioritize investments and reallocate the S&T portfolio
over the next two to three years (about 15 percent of the
S&T budget or ~$1,250 million /year; could be higher).
Chapter IV.

177
The following criteria will be useful for selecting which current efforts
to terminate through reprioritization. Termination should be considered
when
DoD technology is far behind efforts in the commercial
sector.
DoD can rely on commercial technology and broadly
understands it.
An effort is sub-critical in size.
Output is likely to have low or limited application.
Efforts are unproductively redundant in multiple places.
Successful conduct will not make a difference.
DoD otherwise anticipates low value in payoff of project.
In addition to reprioritizing the current S&T investment, DoD can also
take advantage of the natural annual shifts of the S&T investment
portfolio resulting from technology changes. Annual turnover of S&T
programs could free upwards of 20 percent of the S&T funds associated
with sustaining S&T.
Recommendation: The USD (AT&L) should
Direct reprioritization of S&T to fully fund the S&T
initiatives outlined, within the S&T budget.
Start now and complete reprioritization within nine months.
Provide $500 million of 6.4A funds to move current ACTDs
from 6.3 and use current 6.3 funds as part of funding of new
initiatives.
Re-institute the Format-I to provide muscle for the
programs.
Establish single focal point for BWD S&T.
The Secretary of Defense should achieve and sustain investment
in S&T of 3 percent (of top-line DoD budget).
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SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS
RELATED TO THE S&T ENTERPRISE
Figure 4-6 summarizes the dominant themes of this chapter.
doctrine. To accomplish both transition of technology to the field and
transformation of military capabilities, the Department must change its
S&T enterprise through operational experimentation, rapid spiral
development, and evolutionary acquisition. Only then will the
Department be able to fully realize the benefits of the S&T investments
described in this report.
Figure 4-6. Two Challenges That Will Change the Nature of the S&T
Enterprise and U.S. Military Capability

The recommendations in this chapter focus on transforming the
Departments S&T enterprise. They fall in eight areas:
1. Maintain the level of S&T investment at 3 percent of the
overall DoD budget as currently planned by the
Department. Provide additional funds for new S&T
priorities by reprioritizing current programs and shifting
funds for ACTDs to the 6.4A account.
Transformation
New ways to fight
Transition
Time matters
Technology is an
enabler but only in
context of new
concepts, doctrine, etc
Much more rapid
technology
insertion
1. Maintain level of S&T investment
2. New S&T initiatives
3. Exploit commercial technology
4. Accelerating the transition process
5. Experimentation and red teams
6. New Process & role of the Force Transformation Office
7. R&D for joint customers
8. Restructure DoD Labs and rebuild the S&E workforce
Required to accomplish both:
Rapid spiral development/evolutionary acquisition
Chapter IV.

179
2. Invest in new S&T initiatives in support of four
transformational challenges: defending against biological
warfare; finding difficult targets; making timely, accurate
decisions; and enabling high-risk operations. Expand and
provide more focused management for ongoing related
S&T programs.
3. Exploit commercial technology through expanded use of
commercial products and processes; elimination of barriers;
and efforts to forge relationships with commercial industry.
4. Embed R&D activities in a broadly applied spiral
development process with a five-year maximum acquisition
time and an expanded ACTD program
5. Foster discovery and learning through operational
experimentation and extensive use of red teams, as an
integral element of a new S&T enterprise, through assigned
experimental units and sustained senior attention.
6. Establish a new technology transition process by
assigning responsibilities and resources to the Director of
Force Transformation for sponsorship of joint operational
experiments, stewardship of ACTDs, and a strong role in
transitioning results from these activities.
7. Accelerate the transition process for joint R&D by
establishing points of responsibility in joint C4ISR and
8. Restructure the DoD laboratories and rebuild the
scientific and engineering workforce based on a major
review of the function and workforce in each laboratory.
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Annex A
______________________________________________________Terms of Reference

ANNEX A.
TERMS OF REFERENCE________________________________
DSB Summer Study on
Defense Science and Technology __________________________________________

182

THE UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
ACQUISITION AND 2 A EC 2D
TECHNOLOGY ' **
V
*"**
MEMORANDUM FOR CHAIRMAN, DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD
SUBJECT: Terms of Reference Defense Science Board Summer Study on Defense
Science & Technology
You are requested to form a Defense Science Board (DSB) Summer Study to
address the issues involved in assuring that the U.S. continues to gain access to and
develop technology from which to gain military advantage.
Technology has been and must in the future continue to be a key enabler of
military advantage, both in conflict and in situations in which conflict is close at hand.
The DoD science and technology program over the years has discovered, invented,
harnessed, and/or demonstrated such enabling technologies. As industry has
globalized, as science endeavors in other nations become more competitive, and as
affordable technology increasingly issues from commercial sources, the DoD science
and technology program needs to continually adapt to meet challenges and exploit
opportunities.
You are to consider future technologies that should be developed and exploited
for military application. Of particular concern should be potential technologies that
provide the U.S. military an asymmetric advantage - in conflict, but also in cost-
effectively maintaining a ready and motivated force at home and in deployment
situations where conflict is not engaged, but appears to be imminent.
You are to consider the appropriate mix of in-house, contractor, university and
commercial providers of basic and applied research and of advanced development.
Your Task Force should recommend both the level of investment and the
characteristics of S&T investment that the DoD should make. Recommend how the
DoD can leverage technology that is under development and produced globally in
commercial industry as well as that which is being discovered and demonstrated in the
science and technology programs funded by both other U.S. agencies and other
nations. You should consider the situation of and the contribution of the DoD
laboratories in this changing world. The Task Force should also consider how to
maintain excellence in in-house science and technology endeavors.
The study will be co-sponsored by the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition,
Technology and Logistics) and the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Science and
Technology). Dr. Anita Jones and Mr. Larry Lynn will serve as the co-chairs of the Task
w
Force. Dr. Lew Sloter will serve as the Executive Secretary, and LtCol Tony Yang will
serve as the DSB Secretariat Representative.
The Task Force will be operated in accordance with the provision of P.L. 92-463,
the "Federal Advisory Committee Act", and DoD Directive 5105.4, the "DoD Federal
Advisory Committee Management Program". It is not anticipated that this Task Force
will need to go into any "particular matters" within in the meaning of Section 208 of Title
18, U.S. Code, nor will it cause any member to be placed in the position of acting as a
procurement official.
f. S. Gansler
Annex B.
__________________________________________________Task Force Membership

185
ANNEX B.
TASK FORCE MEMBERSHIP ____________________________
Co-Chairs
Dr. Anita Jones University of Virginia
Mr. Larry Lynn Private Consultant
Executive Secretary
Dr. Lewis Sloter ODUSD(S&T)/Weapons Systems
Military Applications Panel
Gen (R) Mike Carns (Co-Chair),
USAF
Private Consultant
Mr. Frank Kendall (Co-Chair) Private Consultant
Mr. Ed Brady Strategic Perspectives, Inc.
Gen (R) Wesley Clark, USA Stephens Group
Gen (R) Wayne Downing, USA Downing & Associates, Inc.
Dr. Michael Frankel SRI International
Gen (R) Dave Maddox, USA Private Consultant
Mr. Walt Morrow MIT Lincoln Laboratory
RADM (R) Marc Pelaez, USN Newport News Shipbuilding
Dr. Robert Rankine Private Consultant
MG (R) Robert Scales, USA Walden e-Learning Inc.
Gen (R) Larry Welch, USAF Institute for Defense Analyses
Investment Strategy Panel
Dr. Ted Gold (Co-Chair) Institute for Defense Analyses
Dr. Lydia Thomas (Co-Chair) Mitretek Systems
Mr. Denis Bovin Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.
Dr. Jacques Gansler University of Maryland
Dr. Bill Graham National Security Research
Dr. Barry Horowitz Concept Five Technologies
Dr. Ron Kerber Private Consultant
Mr. George Singley Hicks and Associates, Inc.
MajGen (R) Jasper Welch,
USAF
Jasper Welch Associates
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Technology Panel
Dr. Regina Dugan (Co-Chair) Dugan Ventures
Dr. Peter Lee (Co-Chair) Carnegie Mellon University
Dr. Ruth David ANSER
Dr. Larry Dubois SRI International
Dr. Ken Gabriel Carnegie Mellon University
Dr. James Heath UCLA
Mr. William Koos MILCOM
Dr. Gregory Kovacs, MD Stanford University
Dr. Patrick Lincoln SRI International
Dr. Stephen Rockwood SAIC
Dr. Michael Roukes California Institute of Technology
Pat Scannon, MD XOMA, Ltd.
Judy Swain, MD Stanford University
Mr. Dick Urban Charles Stark Draper Laboratory
Dr. Haydn Wadley University of Virginia
Mr. Owen Wormser C3i
DSB Representative
LtCol Roger Basl, USAF DSB
Government Advisors
CAPT John Costello, USN Joint Staff J-8
Dr. Paris Genalis Naval Warfare
Ms. Vivian George Night Vision Lab
Dr. Genevieve Haddad AFOSR/NL
CAPT Shaun Jones, USN, MD
Col Mike Perrin, USMC Joint Staff J-8
Ms. Mary Scott National Ground Intelligence Center
Staff
Ms. Barbara Bicksler Strategic Analysis, Inc.
Ms. Julie Evans Strategic Analysis, Inc.
Mr. Bob Piccerillo Strategic Analysis, Inc.
Mr. Brad Smith Strategic Analysis, Inc.
Ms. Stacie Smith Strategic Analysis, Inc.
Mr. Theodore Stump Strategic Analysis, Inc.

Annex C.
____________________________________________Presentations to the Task Force

187
ANNEX C.
PRESENTATIONS TO THE TASK FORCE____________________
Plenary Briefings
March 1, 2001
Mr. John Sullivan CIA Future
Mr. Ken Knight DIA
Dr. Rick Smalley Nanotechnology
March 29-30, 2001
Gen Gregory Martin, USAF
Commander USAFE
Kosovo Air Operations
LtGen Maxwell Bailey, USAF Commander AFSOC
LTG Ron Adams SFOR Commander
ADM Thomas Fargo, USN CINCPACFLT
RADM Albert Konetzni, USN Commander SUBPAC
BrigGen William Shelton, USAF AFSPACECOM
BrigGen Dan Leaf, USAF Recent Commander 31
st
Fighter
Wing, Aviano AB, Italy
LtGen Joe Hurd, USAF Recent Commander 7
th
AF Osan,
Korea
MG Dell Dailey, USA JSOC
MajGen (S) Gary Winterberger,
USAF
NATO AWACS Commander
May 3-4, 2001
Mr. Andy Marshall Discussion
June 28-29, 2001
Hon. Pete Aldridge USD (AT&L)
July 26-27, 2001
Dr. Dean Kamen Innovative Invention and the DoD
August 13-24, 2001
Ed Wagamon Russian Experience in Chechnya
Bob Nelson Concealment, Deception, etc. in
Kosovo
Mr. Luc Barthelet Computer Simulation and the
Sims
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Military Applications Panel
May 3-4, 2001
Dr. Delores Etter DoD S&T Investment Strategy
LTC Bruce Reider, USA Military Innovations
GEN Wesley Clark, USA (Ret) Discussion
Dr. Allen Adler Robotics and FCS
Dr. Ted Gold Views on Transformation
Dr. Wick Murray Innovation
Mr. Steve Rast and Mr. Tom
Lamp
DARPA UCAV Program
Dr. Douglas Gage Software for Robotics
June 28-29, 2001
ADM Art Cebrowski, USN Network Centric Warfare
Dr. Mike Frankel Telecommunications
RADM R.G. Sprigg, USN Navy Warfare Development
Command
Engine for Transformation
ADM Bill Owens, USN (Ret)
MG Bob Scales, USA (Ret) The Future of Warfare
Dr. George Ullrich Advanced Weapons: Capability
Objectives and Technology
July 26-27, 2001
Mr. Andy Krepenivitch MilitaryTransformation
Implications for Science and
Technology
VADM Mayer, USN JFORSCOM

Technology Panel
May 3-4, 2001
Dr. Greg Papadopoulos IT
Dr. Joanna Aizenerg Bio Tech: Biomaterials
Dr. Roger Breeze Bio Tech: Agricultural Biology
Dr. Gordon Ringold Bio Tech: Pharmacology
Dr. Patrick Walsh Bio Tech: Pharmacology
Prof Allan Hoffman Bio Tech: Biomaterials
Dr. Pat Scannon Bio Tech: Pharmacology
Annex C.
____________________________________________Presentations to the Task Force

189
Technology Panel (continued)
June 7-8, 2001
Dr. Bill Press Leveraging the Long-Term
Defense Technology Investment
Dr. Tom McGill Todays Lethal MOUT
Environment
Dr. Steve Wax Lightweight Concepts for
Personal Protection
Dr. Ephrahim Garcia Exoskeletons for Enhancing
Human Perfomance
Dr. Jordan Pollack Automated Design of Throw
Away Robots
Dr. Michael Cima Ceramic Materials
Dr. Robert Full Robotic Locomotion
Dr. Michael Macedonia What the DoD Needs to know
(Modeling and Simulation)
Ms. J.C. Herz Social Ecology of Technological
Changes
Mr. Jesse Schell Massively Multi-Player Games
Mr. Chris Stapleton Interactive Imagination
Dr. Ken Forbus AI & Cognitive Science for Use in
Military Training
Dr. Stuart Wolf Potential Impact to Military of
Quantum Computing and
Communications
Dr. David DiVencenzo Quantum Computing
Dr. David Awsehalom Optical Coupling Concepts to
Spin Systems
Dr. Eli Yablonovitch Quantum Device Concepts
June 28-29, 2001
Dr. Paul Kozemchak Investments and Innovation in the
DoD from 1945-2000
Dr. Allen Adler DARPA FCS Program
Dr. Rodney Brooks AI & Humanoid Robotics

Dr. Graeme Hirst Natural Language Processing
Dr. Michael Goldblatt DARPA

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Investment Strategies Panel
May 3-4, 2001
Dr. Delores Etter DoD S&T Investment Strategy
June 7-8, 2001
Dr. William Rue System Architecture Experiences
from the Business Community
Dr. Roger McCarthy and
Mr. John Johnston
Application of Commercial
Technologies to the Land Warrior
Mr. John Neer Commercial and national Security
Investment in Space Science and
Technology
Mr. Dick Paul Boeing Perspective
Dr. Robert Hermann Industry Perspective
Mr. Jack Hammond and
Mr. Dale von Haase
Lockheed Martin Perspective
Mr. Wade Schott GD Perspective
June 28-29, 2001
ADM Art Cebrowski, USN Network Centric Warfare
Dr. Mike Frankel Telecommunications
RADM R.G. Sprigg, USN Navy Warfare Development
Command
Engine for Transformation
ADM Bill Owens, USN (Ret)
MG Bob Scales, USA (Ret) The Future of Warfare
Dr. George Ullrich Advanced Weapons: Capability
Objectives and Technology
July 26-27, 2001
Mr. Tom Perdue Technology Transition

Annex D.
__________________________________________ Military Priorities Questionnaire

191
ANNEX D.
MILITARY PRIORITIES QUESTIONNAIRE
PROVIDED TO COMBATANT COMMANDERS ________________
1. Briefly describe your current appointment and its
operational accountabilities.
2. If you could have your wish/capability right now in your
current operational appointment, what would it be? What
kind of altered outputs would you want to be able to
achieve? In what new ways would you like to be able to
employ it and to what effect?
3. What is your toughest/most demanding employment
challenge right now? What worries you the most? If that
employment challenge could be solved right now, precisely
what capability would you like to remedy this operational
employment deficiency? What are your thoughts as to how
it might be employed (conceptually) and to what effect
(outcome)?
4. Operationally, where are you most vulnerable? What
capability would make a huge difference in mitigating this
vulnerability? Think way out of the boxwhat would
really make a difference?
5. We have a fair degree (and growing) capability in stealth
and a fair degree of precision. How much better does it
need to be? How about electronic warfare and the
requirement for electronic preparation of the battlefield and
enroute support (escort)? Is this an under appreciated
deficiency or is it about righton course? What would
you like to have in a more perfect world of instant response
that you do not now see coming?
6. How about C4ISR? Given the reality of high demand/low
density in certain capability sectors, how could we think of
this problem in a different way such that we werent so
reliant on this set of very expensive scarce assets? How
about space doing the job? How good would it have to be?
What would you as a field commander want C4ISR to be
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able to do and on what kind of a timeline? What
capabilities would you be comfortable with being
exclusively provided from space? Primarily from space?
Secondarily/back up in space?
7. Talk about sensor-to-shooter, real or virtual. Given that
you would like command-in-the-loop, how would you want
sensor-to-shooter to work? How about accountability,
recall, etc? What leap capability would materially improve
matters?
8. How important is battle damage assessment (BDA) to you?
Does it trouble you that BDA is even necessary, tying up
assets and perturbing planning/strike cycles? Suppose
better, more reliable weapons were available with deadly
accuracy? At what point would you be willing to say: with
that probability of accuracy and in view of that functional
reliability, I dont need BDA; I know its dead.
9. How satisfied are you with intelligence and geo-spatial
(mapping; geodesy; situational awareness) support? How
would you like it to be? Be specific. How happy are you
with the current capability to deliver relevant intelligence to
you, your subordinates/execution cells, and your field
units? Is it at the level needed? Be specific. Are
intelligence arrangements with coalition partners
satisfactory? If not, what would you want to happen to
make you more effective?
10. Re mapping and geodesy support. Are you satisfied? Is
the necessity for mensuration of targets a problem and
inhibitor to rapid targeting/attack/reattack? How good
should it be? How about location/height formation (digital
terrain & elevation data [DTED])? What accuracy would
make a major difference to operational employment
(DTED 1 thru 4)?
11. Please discuss command and control. How do you feel
with respect to operating inside your adversarys decision
cycle? Where are we now? Where would you rather be?
Be specific, both in terms of time and capability. Do you
think centralized command ad control is best or, in the
future, are we better off with a common relevant
operational picture at all levels and at all echelons of joint
command? In such a circumstance would you go into the
mission orders business? How about the dark sidethe
Annex D.
__________________________________________ Military Priorities Questionnaire

193
adversary breaking into the net, either through capture or
electronic theft? On balance, where do you want to go?
12. Do you trust your communications/information data
linksinformation assurance issues? How confident are
you that we have impenetrable systems such that they can
be trusted to execute critical missions on time, on target
(synergy/synchronization issues)? In short, if you could
have your way, what sort of command and control set up
and capability would you want now if you could have it?
13. How about information operations: offensive information
warfare, defensive information warfare, and information
security? Recognizing that no commander seems happy in
this area, tell us of your needs, wants, and fears. How do
you want it differently? What kind of capabilities at the
field levelyour levelwould really make a big
difference in your ability to be dominant and effective?
Think big.
14. One final area. How about administrative concerns:
personnel matters, documentation, records keeping, data
crunching, medical, and other support? Consider in
deployed garrision and in field applications, but particularly
on the remote battlefield. Do you feel that support
technology is moving fast enough? Tell us what
perfection would be in this area. How you want it to be.
15. Bottom line. If you had to pick 3-5-7-10 (pick a number)
technology/capability leap improvements in warfighting,
what would they be? Why did you prioritize them as you
did? What is so importantoutcome wiseand which
ones are needed the soonest and why? On the other hand,
what capabilities do we now have that you are responsible
for and that you think are low contributors to combat
outcomes, could be terminated, and the funds rolled into
building new capabilities on your priority list?
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________________________________________________________ Annex E. Power

195
ANNEX E.
POWER ____________________________________________
Electrical power for the military falls into three broad categories:
Portable power for applications such as communications,
computers, and the Global Positioning System (<100 watts).
Mobile power for applications such as generators, auxiliary
power units, and tactical operations centers (kilowatts).
Stationary power for applications such as bases and ship
propulsion (megawatts to gigawatts).
In addition there are many specialized and very challenging
applications, for example, individual soldier cooling which requires about
200 watts (W) continuously for extended periods of time. Energy
scavenging, or harvesting, from the environment (using power from the
sun, wind, and tides) is another niche application, for both small (remote
sensors) and large stationary installations.
Advances in large-scale stationary power systems, including the use of
more efficient turbines, fuel cells, and potentially nuclear power, are
currently be undertaken through both government funding (primarily from
the Department of Energy and MITI/Japan) and commercial funding.
Cogeneration, enhancements in reliability (e.g., through the development
of advanced materials, sensors, and controls) and efficiency (e.g., from
operation at higher temperatures or the use of bottoming cycles), and
multi-fuel use are all issues currently being addressed. While funding
from the Department of Defense might accelerate the search for solutions
and demonstrate applicability in specific environments, lack of such
funding is certainly not limiting progress at present. Based on the results
of the recent Defense Science Board Study on Fuel Efficiency, however,
more attention in this area is anticipated.
Similarly, advances in mobile power generation are occurring at a
rapid rate due to rising fuel costs overseas. With the advent of new, highly
efficient diesel engines in the European automobile and truck markets as
well as advanced hybrid power trains developed in Japan and North
America, and the current interest in creating fuel cell systems for
automobiles and homes, much of the work in mobile power systems is
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196
already being conducted without significant funding from the DoD. It is
estimated that in 2001 over $1 billion of venture capital funds will flow
into the energy sector. These new systems offer smaller, lighter, and more
efficient operation at lower cost and with less environmental impact than
ever before.
The commercial market is already pursuing issues such as rapid start-
up, acoustic and thermal signatures, operation in extreme environments
(e.g., temperature, humidity, altitude), environmental emissions, cost, and
reliability under adverse conditions due both to government mandate
(particularly in Japan and Europe) and to enhanced consumer interest. In
many cases military specifications for such power systems are no more
stringent than those imposed by the automobile industry. The key for the
DoD is to ensure that such systems will operate on fuels found worldwide
(e.g., logistics fuels) which are generally not as clean or as well refined as
those found in North America, Japan or Western Europe. Thus, funding
for fuel reformers, multi-fuel systems and systems integration may be an
appropriate DoD contribution.
The biggest power challenge facing todays military is in portable
power sources. The impact of this issue is graphically demonstrated in
Figure E-1, where a weight trade-off between batteries and other mission-
critical items is shown. Anecdotal remarks from soldiers indicate that they
sometimes take less food and water on a mission in order to carry more
batteries. Due to the proliferation of battery types and sizes in use (which
number in the thousands across the DoD), resupplying batteries in the field
is even more difficult and probably more expensive than resupplying fuel.
Note that while the cost of fuel at a depot is less than $1.50 per gallon, the
estimated cost on the front line is in excess of $500 per gallon. To date, a
similar analysis has not been performed to access the cost of delivering
batteries to soldiers in battle.
Although substantial advances in battery technology have occurred
over the last few years, improvements in energy density have come only at
the rate of about 5 to 10 percent per year. This rate pales in comparison
to, for example, Moores law. One major advantage of the breakthroughs
in microelectronics is that the power usage per transistor has dropped
dramatically over the last two decades. Unfortunately this drop has been
more than offset by the increase in the number of transistors in any given
device, which has grown orders of magnitude faster. Thus todays
microprocessors can require upwards of 100 W of power. This gap
between the need or demand for the function of the device and the ability
to supply power in a compact form is continuing to grow. Thus as the size
of individual microelectronic components continues to shrink, the weight

________________________________________________________ Annex E. Power

197
and volume of the power source can dominate the system. Figure E-2
shows the component breakdown of a typical cell phone.
Figure E-1. Todays weight trade-off: Adding electronics and batteries is at
the expense of other mission-essential items.
Figure E-2. Batteries are clearly the size and weight drivers for portable
electronic devices as evidenced by this data from a Motorola
Micro TAC Lite cellular telephone.

Despite the large role that todays batteries play in portable electronic
devices, there is minimal commercial or government investment in leap
ahead battery technologies. Current improvements (particularly advances
in lithium and lithium-ion rechargeable batteries) are completely driven by
the commercial sector, with the Japanese and Koreans in the lead. There
64.7%
Electronics and
Enclosure
46.7%
Electronics
and Enclosure
53.3%
Battery
35.3%
Battery
Percent Volume Percent Weight
Laptop Computer
and 2 Day Simply
of Batteries
(Appro*. 12.-4 tbs.)
402 Rounds of
5.56 mmAnmo
(Tl-t30-Rouad
f/bgazin*$)
H H H
EBB
BEE
BEE
4 Day Supply
of Food
(72 14b. fJKES)
Protective
3
Canteen
$
Compass
First Aid Kit
DSB Summer Study on

198
are a few new ideas for improved anode, cathode, and electrolyte
materials, but these developments would provide less than a factor of two
increase in performance. The Army is looking for almost an order of
magnitude improvement in performance in the next 20 years (see Table E-
1).
Table E-1. Land Warrior Operational Requirements Document,
August 3, 1999 (Scott Feldman, Natick Soldier Center,
Natick, MA).

The intelligence community is the only part of the government
providing relatively modest funding on more advanced battery systems.
The word system must be stressed here. This community deals with a
very uneven duty cycle in many applications and is therefore considering
hybrid battery-battery or battery-ultracapacitor systems. In battery
chemistry there is generally a trade-off between high energy density and
high power density. For example, todays best rechargeable lithium ion
batteries have energy densities on the order of 120 W-hrs/kg and can
deliver about 100 W of power. In contrast, an ultracapacitor
(electrochemical double layer capacitor) holds only about 20 W-hrs/kg,
but can deliver several kilowatts/kg. Combining a low-rate, high-energy-
density battery with a high-rate ultracapacitor may provide the best
combination of performance features for many applications. For example,
a digital cell phone on standby for an extended period of time requires
very low power, but a lot of energy. In talk mode the power requirements
are high, but the duty cycle is short, so that the energy needs are generally
low.
Clearly, to address the challenge created by high-power electronics,
technologists can work either to drop the power requirements of the
system dramatically, to improve the performance of the power source to
meet new demands, or to do both in combination. Both avenues are
certainly being pursued. The commercial sector is currently the driver for
Units
Baseline
(1998) 2003 2005 2008 2018- 2125
Average Power Watts 23 16 8 4 2
Energy in 12.5 hr W hr 285 205 95 51 26
Mission Duration hrs 12.5 12 48 72 227
Mission Energy W hr 285 197 364 294 455
Mission Weight lbs 5.9 1.6 2 1 1
Energy Density W hrs/kg 106 271 400 646 1000

________________________________________________________ Annex E. Power

199
low-power electronics (though much of the current work can be traced to
earlier programs funded by the DoD). Consider, for example, the size,
weight and run time of a state-of-the-art cell phone (days) or how long the
battery lasts in a new personal data assistant (weeks). The use of low-
power microprocessors, more efficient displays, and advanced power
management tools allows laptop computers to run for up to eight hours.
The DoD recognizes these gains (see Table E-1 above) and will certainly
leverage the efforts of others. These gains will also help to solve the
soldier backpack weight problem. Although significant advances have
been madenext generation SINGARS radios are less than 1/10 the size
[548 in3 vs. 48 in3] and 1/7 the weight [3 lbs. vs. 22 lbs.] of current
models, for examplethere is still substantial room for improvement.
SINGARS radios are still more than 10 times the size and weight of even a
low-cost cell phone.
Some of the most popular current and potential future battery
chemistries are summarized in Table E-2. Most very-high-energy-density
systems are experimental or require an open system (e.g., they use air or
water from the environment at the cathode). The energy density is
deceptive since no (or minimal) cathode materials need be factored into
the weight of the cell. As can be seen in Figure E-3, the cathode
dominates the size and weight of a typical electrochemical cell. Open
systems, however, become heavier as usage increases due to the formation
of product salts at the cathode. For the most part these salts are quite inert
and can be dumped overboard as the system discharges. As the cell
sizes shrink, the current collector and packaging size and weight becomes
a greater fraction of the overall system size. Nevertheless, low-rate metal-
air systems are practical for hearing aid batteries. Zinc-air systems have
recently been introduced into the cell phone market with limited success.
Most open systems are far more experimental than their sealed
counterparts, and energy densities of practical systems are hard to estimate
since once a battery is started, it cannot be stopped. Note that sealed
systems are particularly important for underwater and space operations.
An interesting observation from Table E-2 is that the practical energy
density of a cell is only about one-quarter of that of the maximum
theoretical energy density. This is due to packaging, binders (inactive
materials), current collectors, and unknown factors. (See Figure E-3.)
The relative contributions of each of these factors varies dramatically
depending on the size, power requirements, and geometry of the cell.
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Table E-2. Energy densities of some common and experimental
battery systems.

Couple

Common Name

Voltage
(V)
Maximum
Specific
Energy
(Wh/kg)
Practical
1

Specific
Energy
(Wh/kg)

Practical
1
Energy
Density
(Wh/L)

Sealed Systems
Cd/HgO MerCad E
o
= 0.922 142 65 300
Pb/PbO2 Lead-Acid Voc = 2.18 182 34
2
85
2
Cd/NiO(OH) NiCad, Nickel-Cadmium,
Ni-Cd
Voc = 1.30 210 34
2
100
2
MH/NiO(OH) Nickel/Metal-Hydride, Ni-
MH
Voc = 1.35 220 54
2,7
180
2,7
Zn/HgO Mercury-Zinc Voc = 1.35 242 100 360
Zn/alk/MnO2 Alkaline Manganese Voc = 1.55 302 140 365
Zn/AgO Silver-Zinc Voc = 1.82 &
1.56
435 90
2
170
2
220 850
Li/I2 Lithium/Iodine E
o
= 2.78 555 260
3
940
3
LiC6/Li4CoO2 Lithium Ion Voc = 4.00 455 (630) 125
2,7
300
2,7
Li/MnO2
Lithium/Manganese
Dioxide
Voc = 3.15 900 280 600
Li/SO2 Lithium/Sulfur Dioxide Voc = 2.95 1110 300 500
260
4
350
4
Li/FeS2 Lithium/Iron Disulfide Voc = 1.80 &
1.60
1230 260
8
480
8
Li/SOCl2 Lithium/Thionyl Chloride E
o
= 3.70 1490 510 1020
660
5
1200
5
Li/CF Lithium/Carbon
Monofluoride
Voc = 3.00 2120 290
9
510
9
600
6
1000
6
820
10
1180
10
EH = 4.5 3200
Li/Cl2 Lithium/Chlorine E
o
= 3.98 2520
Li/S Lithium/"Sulfur" Voc = 2.20 3680
Li/SRIF
11
E
o
= 5.8 4750
Open Systems
12

Mg/Air E
o
=3.1 6800
Al/Air E
o
= 2.7 8130 300 330
Zn/Air (cell phone) E
o
=3.6 150
Li/Water E
o
= 3.1 8530
Li/Air E
o
= 3.4 13,000
Voc is the measured open circuit voltage
1 Based on "D" volume cells unless otherwise noted
2 Rechargeable cells
3 Heartpacer cells, 37oC
4 Army version (higher rate capability)
5 10,000 Ah, low rate cells (obsolete)

________________________________________________________ Annex E. Power

201
6 GJM 3/88 "DD" cells
7 "4/3A" cells
8 "AA" cells
9 Commercial "C" cells
10 GJM 1,200 Ah (low rate design)
11 SRI proprietary cathode material, all values are estimates
12 Maximum specific energies are based only on the weight of the anode material

Figure E-3. Weight breakdown of a typical sealed cell.

While todays small-scale systems use energy storage devices, larger-
scale systems convert hydrocarbon fuels (or, in very large systems, nuclear
fuel) to electrical energy. At present both the Department of Defense and
commercial industry are pushing to develop compact energy conversion
devices to run radios, cell phones, laptop computers, and the like. There
are a number of issues that must be addressed, however. The most
important consideration is the details of the missionshort vs. long,
continuous vs. intermittent duty cycle, maximum and minimum power
requirements, etc. As shown in Figure E-4, for short missions, batteries or
extremely small energy conversion devices (e.g., microturbines) may be
the best option to provide power, but for longer missions the size, weight,
and cost of the power source are dominated by the respective size, weight,
and cost of the fuel. In this case the energy density of the fuel and the
efficiency of energy conversion are key parameters.
P
o
u
c
h C
e
ll
Packaging
Packaging
Current Collector
Current Collector
Electrolyte
Cathode
Anode
Weight Breakdown of a Conventional Lithium Battery
current collector 2.7 g
anode 0.5
electrolyte 3.0
cathode 10.3
current collector 2.7
TOTAL 19.2 g (plus packaging)
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Figure E-4. The trade-off between energy conversion devices and energy
storage devices.

Government funding in the small power source area is really focused
on energy conversion devices (fuel cells, small engines, etc.) with very
little funding going into really advanced batteries (i.e., heavily
fluorinated systems, metal-air and metal-water chemistries, see Table E-
2). Primary sources of funds include the DARPA Palm Power Program
and NIST ATP. There is also growing interest in this area from the
Department of Energy. The driving force here is the very-high-energy-
density of many fuels.
For example, methanol has an energy density of about 5600 W-hrs/kg,
nearly 50 times that of a rechargeable lithium ion battery. Butane is more
than twice as energy-dense as methanol, logistics fuel (e.g., diesel or jet
fuel) is 2.5 times denser than methanol (about 13,000 W-hrs/kg), and the
energy density of hydrogen is a whopping 30,000 W-hrs/kg. On a per
weight basis, even 1 percent energy conversion of hydrogen leads to a
system substantially better than the best batteries in use today.
Unfortunately even liquid hydrogen is not very dense (about 71
g/liter), which means that the practical energy density of hydrogen is only
~2100 W-hrs/liter. Hydrogen can be stored at a density that approaches
that of liquid hydrogen and is on the order of a few percent (see Table E-
3). There is work currently being conducted on the use of chemical
hydrides such as MgH2, LiAlH4, alkyl silanes and amino boranes to
generate hydrogen in situ, but issues of control, generation rates, and
safety (e.g., chemical stability, thermal runaway) have yet to be solved

Mission Duration
(Energy Use Requirements)
Sy
ste
m
M
as
s
(or
Vo
lu
m
e
or
Co
st)
Fuel
Stack
Batteries - quantized
Fuel Cell, TPV,
AMTEC,
Engine, etc.
Slope = weight of fuel x fuel
energy density x energy
conversion efficiency
Intercept = weight
or size of stack,
motor, fuel tank,
controls, etc.

________________________________________________________ Annex E. Power

203
completely. [Note: experimental evidence indicating >>10% by weight
hydrogen storage on graphite nanofibers have never been reproduced.]
Throw in the size, weight and cost of a fuel cell (or other energy
conversion device), and the efficiency of energy conversion (~10 - 50%)
and one can see why people aren't yet jumping all over even hydrogen-
powered systems for portable devices. Restrictions are eased somewhat as
the size grows due to the approximate fixed size of the control electronics
and some of the packaging as well as the ease of storing high pressure
gaseous hydrogen in larger tanks.
As shown qualitatively in Figure E-4 and quantitatively in Table E-3,
fueled systems make the most sense for the longest missions where the
weight and size of the energy conversion device and the fuel tank become
negligible compared to the weight of the fuel, the energy density of the
fuel and the efficiency of energy conversion. Fueled systems also make
sense where issues such as acoustic and thermal signature, start-up time,
and air independent operation are not key concerns. For example, internal
combustion engines or microturbines, which tend to be small, lightweight,
and provide high power, but which are inefficient, noisy, and hot may
make sense to power micro-air vehicles.
One area that has not received much attention from the DoD is small
(portable) nuclear sources. While such systems have been used in space
exploration for years and have racked up an impressive reliability record
(over 250,000 hours of operation without a single failure), terrestrial
applications (other than niche applications such as powering pacemakers)
have not been forthcoming. Clearly public perception is a big issue,
although unbeknown to most, small radioactive sources are present in
smoke detectors, emergency exit signs, and other common items.
Although the energy density is quite high due to the long lifetime of the
source, most radiation-based systems tend to have quite low power
densities. (Shielding is typically very heavy.) To date no serious research
effort has been directed at how to build and optimize these devices.
Expanded funding by the DoD could make a significant impact in this
area, particularly in the development of sources better matched to energy
conversion materials (typically thermoelectrics) and in packaging and
shielding.
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Table E-3. Approximate energy density of small energy conversion
devices and fuels.

Energy
(kWh)
Energy
Density
(Wh/kg)
Power
Density
(W/kg)

Current/Near Term DMFC, 60W 1.44 215.4 9.23
4.9 553.8 6.59

3-5 yr Advanced DMFC, 20W 1.6 1558 19.05
5.06 2300 9.1
Theoretical Energy Density of MeOH 5600

Current/Near Term PEM Fuel Cell 1.6 235 14.67
5000 psi compressed H2, 100W 4.8 377 7.85
10 447 4.47

1-2 yr H2/PEM, 100W (10-12% by weight H2 storage) 1.6 256 16.08
4.8 439 9.13
10 537 5.37

Advanced (3-5 yrs) Solid Oxide Fuel Cell, JP-8, 20W 1.44 1506 20.9
4.87 3200 13.2
10 4235 8.4

Thermoelectrics (BiTe TEG operating at 4.5% efficient heat to
electricity)
16

Thermal Photovoltaics (TPV, 20W at 2% efficient fuel to electricity,
butane fuel)

Alkali Metal Thermal Energy Conversion (AMTEC)
Current, butane fuel (~10% efficient fuel to electricity) 1.46 502 6.9
5.2 760 2.9
10.4 842 1.6
Future, butane fuel (~15% efficient fuel to electricity) 1.4 598 8.5
5.2 1032 4.0
10.3 1195 2.3

Advanced (3-5 yrs) ICE/MicroStirling/Turbine, 20W 1.44 2900 40.3
4.8 3532 14.75
10 3711 7.4

MIT microturbine project (goal: 5% efficient conversoin of butane to
electricity)
600

Theoretical Energy Density of Diesel Fuel ~13,000

Nuclear
Current pacemaker battery (PuO2/BiTe), including source and
shielding
0.02
Space power (SiGe TEG, 0.07% efficient), including shielding 5.3
90
Sr + Icosohedral Boride, 1% efficient energy conversion ~100,000
28 year half-life, no shielding required for small systems

________________________________________________________ Annex E. Power

205

Finally, no discussion of power sources for the military would be
complete without at least a brief mention of energy scavenging techniques
(especially solar and thermal). While these technologies may not provide
the needed energy or power by themselves, when coupled with batteries
and/or ultracapacitors they may provide a good solution for systems
requiring long duration and very low or intermittent power (see Figure E-
5). There is certainly a lot of work being pursued in this area, most of it
outside of the DoD (at, for example, NREL and MITI/Japan).
Figure E-5. Energy generation from an array of solar cells or a power boot.
Energy scavenging is typically a low rate process requiring a
battery or ultracapacitor to store or convert the energy to a useful
form.

Solar cells are particularly useful for low-power applications (one can
already buy solar-power calculators and watches or power boosters for
cell phones, for example). For anything that requires serious power, size
becomes an issue. For example, a small laptop computer requires 30 W of
power. At 23% solar to electrical energy conversion efficiency (typical of
very high-end single crystal silicon), a panel of 15" x 15" exposed to direct
sunlight at noon is required to be effective. (About 1 kW per m
2
of
sunlight is about the maximum that hits the earth.) At other times of the
day (or with clouds, at night, indoors, etc.) a much larger array would be
needed. Having said that, using a solar panel to keep batteries topped off
will certainly extend the life of a system. Optimizing the mix of batteries
for continuous duty operation with ultracapacitors for intermittent power
needs (e.g., starting the hard drive of a laptop computer) will also improve
Low rale
&iergy
Use
F: ,-,er
Time
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206
system life. Other alternatives include wind-up power (commercially
available for radios and flashlights), the power boot being developed by
DARPA (power generation through walking, see Figure E-5) and
thermoelectrics (TEGs) for powering distributed sensors (DARPA/Office
of Naval Research) funding.
As one looks further out into the future, there are many wildcard
technologies that may or may not be practical sources of energy for the
military. These include molecular motors, biofuel cells, solid-state
engines, cold fusion, microemitter arrays, sonofusion, and many others.
In addition, there are potential breakthroughs in power distribution
technologies such as lightweight, low-cost plastic conductors, room-
temperature superconductors, and energy beaming. The DoD can either
take a leadership role in these areas and make a substantial impact on our
future, or just track developments as they unfold with an eye toward
capitalizing on possible breakthroughs.
It is very clear from the above that there is no one single solution to all
of the power problems facing the U.S. military (other than dropping the
power needs of specific devices, which is already happening). Further,
despite best efforts, power requirements in the military are likely to grow
in the future (e.g., due the need for increased soldier microclimate cooling
in response the growing threat of chemical and biological weapons or the
development of advanced electric battlefield vehicles and the use of
directed energy weapons). Of course the military has certain requirements
that most civilians do not need to consider (e.g., extremes of temperatures
(-20 to -60
o
C) and operation in space or under water. These requirements
almost certainly mean that some sort of energy storage device will be
required, independent of whether one uses a fuel cell, small generator, or
solar cell.

Annex F. Unmanned
_______________________________________________Ground Vehicle Technology

207
ANNEX F.
BACKGROUND AND CURRENT ASSESSMENT
OF UNMANNED GROUND VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY___________
Unmanned aerial platforms are a visible mainstay in current U.S.
operations. They are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. As a
result, the technology and capabilities of such platforms are widely
understood throughout the defense establishment. Unmanned underwater
platforms are less so, but also less likely to play a defining role in overt
military operations. This said, there is great interest in the active use of
unmanned ground vehicles, which presents some important technological
challenges. These challenges and some of the DoDs programs to address
these challenges are described below.
Unmanned Ground Vehicles
Research and development related to mobile robots has been
conducted over the past 40 years. Currently, approximately $60 to $80
million of R&D is being spent annually by the DoD in this area. To date
few mobile robots have been added to the military inventory. Those that
have are primarily used for performing dangerous missions such as
explosive ordnance disposal or mine field clearing. These robots are
characterized by their relatively large size and their teleoperated brute
force approach to mission success. In the past couple of decades, as the
result of increased computation and sensing capabilities enabled by
microelectronics and MEMS technology, emphasis has focused upon the
development of robots for surveillance and reconnaissance missions.
Much smaller size, with on-board sensing, communications, and
processing characterize these robots.
Large Robots. The United States Marine Corps in coordination with
the Unmanned Ground Vehicle Joint Program Office, has developed and
transitioned to acquisition a Standardized Robotic System that is basically
a kit that allows currently fielded vehicles to be retrofitted for
teleoperation. Vehicles such as a D7G bulldozer, an M1 main battle tank
chassis, a HMMWV and an M-60 tank chassis have been teleoperated to
conduct breaching, route clearing, and area clearing missions. The Office
of Special Technology has developed a mini-flail system to clear anti-
personnel land mines. As a result of this effort the Engineering School
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developed a requirement for a 300 meter line-of-sight vehicle able to
neutralize anti-personnel landmines, perform wire breaching, dispense
obscurants, emplace demolitions, sweep runways, and create access lanes
through buildings or other antipersonnel obstacles. It is scheduled to reach
production in fiscal year 2005. Other large robots include the All-Purpose
Remote Transport System capable of remote operations in various mission
profiles, including clearing unexploded ordnance, and the Automated
Range Ordnance Mapping System, to retrieve buried ordnance and other
hazardous items.
Medium-Sized Robots. The DARPA Tactical Mobile Robots program
has invested approximately $50 million over the past five years and has
developed a variety of new robotics technologies and platforms designed
for dismounted operations by projecting operational influence and
situational awareness into previously denied areas. The robots range in
size from those that can be thrown to robots that weigh 30 to 60 pounds.
The stated technical objectives of the program are:
Machine Perception: Provide multi-sensor hazard detection
at 20 Hz, non-GPS position estimation, and multi-source
topological mapping with 90% accuracy.
Autonomy: Demonstrate robust traversal of complex terrain
with minimal (less than 1 command per 50 m) human
supervision. Develop and implement self-recovery
behaviors (self-righting, anti-handling, etc.) that compensate
for unanticipated events.
Mobility: Negotiate complex obstacles (stairs, rubble, etc.)
and barriers (barbed wire, fences, etc.) with greater
efficiency and less operational risk than human-oriented
alternatives.
Human-Robot Interface: Create a non-distracting, alert-
based system that allows a single operator to task, control,
and interact with no fewer than three different platforms
simultaneously.
Collaborative Robotic System Integration: Employ a
collaborative team of multiple robots that cooperate to
perform complex missions that exceed the capabilities of any
single platform. Develop and demonstrate collaborative
semi-autonomous behavior (docking, power exchange,
partner inspection, etc.) that allows teamed platforms to
function reliably in adverse conditions.
Annex F. Unmanned

209
Miniature Robots. The DARPA Distributed Robotics program has
developed a variety of miniature robots that are approximately one inch to
five inches in size. Mobility modes such as wheels, tracks, jumping,
climbing, slithering, and swimming are being developed. One robot was
designed to be shot from a M203 Grenade Launcher through a building
window and then be teleoperated through a building using wheeled
locomotion and sending live video back to an operator outside the
building. This robot also has a spring-operated foot that allows the robot to
jump and potentially climb stairs. Another robot was developed with a
vortex generator that allows the robot to be attached to a vertical surface
and climb upward. It can also travel along ceilings. Also developed were
robots that can change shape from a track to a snake to a legged robot.
Working with the DARPA Software for Distributed Robotics program,
algorithms and networks are being developed to allow multiple miniature
robots to operate collaboratively to accomplish a specific mission. Other
DARPA programs are investigating biomimicry for robot locomotion and
control.
Miniature robots are appealing because they are portable, cheap, have
reduced visible and acoustic signatures, can be owned and operated by
individuals in a small team, and can perform tasks that larger robots or
humans cant perform. Experiments with operational forces have validated
their strong appeal and military applicability. Research and development
in miniature mobile robots is relatively new and has been driven primarily
by the entertainment industry, which is producing toys with greater and
greater sophistication. Lego, for example, has developed a kit from which
children can build a wide variety of robots. The modular approach allows
flexibility in platform design, selection of a variety of simple sensors,
alternative uses of motors for locomotion or actuation and a simple user
language that allows children to program robot behavior on a PC and
automatically download to the robot via infrared communications. These
robots are very crude, mechanically fragile, and offer little utility for
military operations.
Miniature robots, however, offer great promise for future military
operations. Used in a system in conjunction with other robots, unmanned
air vehicles, unmanned ground sensors, and small teams, miniature robots
can add value in unique ways. Their primary contribution in surveillance
and reconnaissance missions is their ability to get close to a target and
either provide high-resolution information about the target or serve as a
sacrificial target designator. They can also be used in a manner similar to
unattended ground sensors. But by moving they can gain better
surveillance vantage points or improved signal transmission/reception
positions. Operating in collaborative groups they can gather information
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over large areas and transmit target information along with coordinates to
a central location for compiling into a comprehensive situational
awareness system. Moving also allows robots to calculate relative target
positions. Miniature robots can be propelled into buildings, conduct
searches, and transmit real-time information back to operators.
The key to successful robot design, development, and transition to
operational use has been to focus narrowly on a specific mission where the
value-added offsets the high cost of low-volume production. The key to
future robot success will be the ability to develop small robots with
modular designs that can be inexpensively and rapidly tailored to meet
specific mission needs. In general, the demand for deployable robots that
can gather, process, and communicate information is limited by the lack of
technology and appropriate tactical thinking about the effective use of
robots for small-team operations.
Because a robot is essentially a system that operates within a system,
technical progress needs to be made in several challenging areas. These
areas are mobility, communications, navigation, sensor integration, sensor
and information processing, autonomy, collaboration, power, and human-
computer interfaces, all within the context of relevant military missions.
Mobility
Novel locomotion mechanisms for small robots to move toward an
objective and avoid or overcome obstacles are needed. Small motors offer
optimum efficiency when rotating at high speed. These speeds are orders
of magnitude higher than wheels or tracks can accommodate. Coupling
the motor speed to wheel or track speed requires either dropping the
applied voltage or employing reduction gears; both methods result in
drastically reduced efficiency.
Small robots need to be fast and at the same time have high torque to
enable them to overcome obstacles or ascend inclines. Current motors that
are optimized for high speed exhibit low torque; high torque implies low
speed. New motor concepts that offer small size, high speed, high torque,
and high efficiency at the robot platform level are needed. Wheeled
robots typically cannot overcome obstacles that are larger than
approximately one-half the diameter of a wheel. Other forms of
locomotion have similar constraints. Combinations of multiple forms of
locomotion that include, for example, wheels (good for smooth surfaces),
tracks (good for rougher terrain), jumping (good for overcoming
obstacles), slithering (good for uneven terrain), climbing (good for vertical
surfaces) or other novel ideas that allow movement in unstructured
Annex F. Unmanned

211
environments are needed. A small general-purpose robot that is able to
traverse all forms of terrain is probably not feasible.
Communications
Since no fully autonomous robots will exist in the foreseeable future,
communicating to and from robots is essential to both control and receive
sensor information. Several modes of communications are needed.
Teleoperation requires signals from an operator to the robot at speeds
sufficient to obtain the desired performance. Some semi-autonomous
behavior is enabled by providing a robot waypoints and then allowing the
robot to find its own way without supervision unless it gets into trouble.
The robot must transmit sensor-derived information back to an operator.
When collaborating with other robots, networked communications
among the robots is needed. A variety of communication modes have
been employed including acoustic, radio frequency (RF), and optical.
Acoustic methods have limited operating range, multipath and noise. RF
systems have difficulty with ground coupling, multipath, and jamming.
Most robot developers seek inexpensive methods for communications and
typically use 800-to-900-MHz miniature transmitters or receivers or 1.2
GHz wireless local area networks that are commercially available and
usable without the need for Federal Communication Commission licenses.
A common problem with these radios is that potential adversaries easily
intercept their signals and they are easily jammed.
Frequency stomping has been a problem in the conduct of field
experiments with operational forces when multiple robot contractors are
all trying to operate simultaneously on the same frequency. Optical
communications have also been used. This approach suffers from
problems caused by light scattering, reflections, and transmission in rain
or fog, and it presents problems with aiming a beam between moving
robots or people. More robust communications approaches are available
but their size, weight, power requirements and available bandwidth
precludes their use in small robots. Significant investment in the
telecommunications industry (cell phones and wireless networking) is
driving the technology in the right direction, but characteristics like wide
bandwidth, security, antennas, and low cost are not yet available for use
on miniature robots in military environments.
Navigation
Most robots are teleoperated. They navigate by remote control with an
operator issuing commands while watching the robot. Cameras on robots
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can be used to provide location information to an operator when the ability
to physically see the robot is otherwise obstructed. If pre-knowledge of
the terrain exists, route planning can be used to program a robot with
waypoints. In this case, robots must know when they reach a waypoint so
they can change direction. Dead reckoning has been used by counting
wheel turns, but this approach suffers from problems of accuracy,
especially if wheels slip when traversing loose sand, or mud, or rubble.
Global positioning can be used when operating in areas that have clear
access to satellites. But GPS may only be intermittently available when
operating in urban canyons or inside buildings. Also, accuracy becomes
an issue when using commercial C/A code unless time is available to
establish differential sites. Military-accuracy GPS devices are typically
too large for use with small robots. Inertial navigation devices
(combinations of gyros and accelerometers) have been used to provide six-
degree-of-freedom positioning data. However, the state of accelerometer
technology allows navigation accuracy for only very short periods of time
(minutes). Cooperative navigation can be employed using active
mechanisms such as lasers, radio frequency, and acoustic sources to range,
triangulate or use time-difference-of-arrival methods to determine robot
positions. These mechanisms are less covert because they emit energy
into the environment. They also typically require direct line-of-sight.
Sensor Integration
Sensors are an essential component in any mission-oriented robot.
Sensors are needed to provide real-time feedback to its control system or
to an operator. Simple sensors such as proximity sensors, acoustic
sensors, and cameras have been used for this purpose. Sensors are also
needed to obtain information about targets of interest in the environment.
Military operators desire the ability to place all of their personal sensors
(eyes, ears, smell, feel) at a remote location of interest without physically
being collocated.
The most attractive sensor is the video camera, because it provides the
greatest amount of information in the shortest amount of time. A single
camera can assist in teleoperation as well as provide information about
targets. A wide variety of other sensors can be employed to detect the
presence of specific physical (temperature, pressure, light, vibration, etc.),
chemical, or biologic substances. Since none of these sensors have been
developed specifically for application on small robots, their use requires
mechanical and electrical tailoring for physically mounting and functional
operation.
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213
Useful available sensors have a variety of deficiencies. Sensors
typically require a large aperture to achieve maximum signal collection.
Available sensors tend to be too large for small robots. Shrinking the size
of the sensor also shrinks the collection area and, while it still can perform
its intended function, its robustness declines proportional to the area
reduction. Also, there exist no standard interfaces for sensors. Every
different sensor has its own unique input/output characteristics that result
in unique system hardware and software interfaces.
A robot needs multiple sensors to determine information about its own
state, to assist in navigation, and to obtain target information. The physical
placement, interface requirements, and on-board networking approaches
present a complex design task that must also consider the minimization of
overall robot energy requirements. The positive identification of a target
of interest is dependent upon the physical, chemical or biological
signatures of the target.
There is no sensor that can automatically positively detect and identify
a human, for example. It is only through a combination of data obtained
from multiple sensors about the known characteristics of a human that a
probability can be assigned to the automatic detection or identification of
that human. Incorporating a suite of sensors with an acceptable composite
fidelity, dynamic range, and environmental ruggedness into a system with
stringent size and power constraints requires the development of novel
design philosophies, architectures, and tools that are focused on tight
integration.
Sensor and Information Processing
Since sensors react to physical, chemical or biological stimuli and
typically provide this data in the form of voltages or currents, some form
of processing is necessary to translate this data into information. Many
companies incorporate some form of signal processing in the sensor
product; others simply provide the sensing mechanism. It is therefore
possible that a robot with five different commercial off-the-shelf sensors
could also have five separate signal processors, each of which is tailored
to a sensing mechanism. Robots with multiple sensors need to address the
size, power, and cost trade-off of using a variety of sensor and signal
processing products or multiplexing raw sensors with a single signal
processor. In any case, the output of first-stage signal-processed data is
insufficient to make acceptable decisions about the object being sensed.
Sensor data needs to be fused into a more comprehensive
representation the object being sensed. While significant progress has
been made in sensor fusion technology, the processing requirements are
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complex and typically require computational power in excess of what
could be reasonably incorporated in a small robot. If this is true for a
specific mission scenario, then the sensor data could be transmitted to a
central location for processing. In addition, if multiple robots are being
used to accumulate data from a wide-area search, then it is highly likely
that each of the robots would transmit its findings to a central location.
This, however, requires communication channels with adequate bandwidth
that perform within the constraints mentioned in the communications
section above.
Autonomy
A perfect robot or system of robots would be capable of accepting a
mission level command, similar to what one person would instruct another
person to do (search that area for evidence of explosives and render
helpless any that are found), and then carry out its mission with high
probability of success and no human intervention. We are decades away
from even approaching this level of autonomy.
Intelligent-like behavior can be demonstrated through a combination
of sensors and processing. There are four distinct levels to consider. The
first level is for internal control of the robot, which involves coordinating
the actions of motors, gears, flaps, and the like for locomotion and
understanding the robots internal state. The second level involves
coordinating on-board sensors that sense and interrogate the external
environment for the purpose of navigation. The third level involves
coordinating on-board sensors to detect, identify, and/or decide about
mission-related objects (targets). The fourth level involves collaborating
with other robots to achieve the mission.
Most robot developers have a good understanding of how their robots
are internally controlled. Upper-level commands are typically translated
into voltages by a processor and digital-to-analog converter to control the
speed and direction of motors which in turn control wheels, tracks, leg
extensions, or other propulsive parts. In some cases, sensors that sense the
state of the robot (wheel rotation, leg extension, flap position, etc.) provide
feedback to a processor to adjust robot performance. Internal control also
includes the hardware and software required to achieve reconfiguration to
a different locomotion mode (e.g., track to snake).
Internal robot control and mechanical and electrical designs are tightly
coupled. During the typical development process, trade-offs are
constantly being made by adding additional software to execute better
control or to change mechanical and electrical designs. Optimization for
efficient operation is effected after first prototypes are fabricated. Care
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215
must be taken to assure that the robot uses minimum energy for mission
success. Non-optimized hardware and software designs can consume
excess power and leave little energy available for mission-related sensors,
processing, and communications. On a small robot, the controller is
typically an 8-bit processor (PIC) operating at 20 MHz with 8k of ROM
code and 192 bytes of RAM. One processor is usually dedicated to motor
control. A second processor serves as a central manager by parsing
incoming messages and handling any local behaviors.
A second level of intelligent-like behavior involves understanding the
immediate environment to allow the robot to make decisions about where
it is currently located and to move to a different location. A third
processor is typically used to coordinate the sensor information and
provide this to the central processor. There are two distinctly different
approaches. The first includes using some form of navigation aid such as
GPS, inertial navigation, loran, or dead reckoning (counting wheel
rotations and compass readings after leaving a known location). In this
approach, the robot knows its current location and is provided with
waypoints to travel to a different location.
While progress has been made in these technologies, each have
deficiencies and none of them is adequate for operational use with mission
times greater than tens of minutes. The second approach involves
executing degrees of local behavior like obstacle avoidance, wall
following, homing and follow the leader. They derive their knowledge of
the environment from simple sensors (touch, pressure, temperature,
acoustic, semiconductor lasers, RF or LED rangefinders, LED
communications, and cameras) and progress along a pre-programmed path
or seek local maximum sensor inputs.
The third level of intelligent-like behavior involves gathering
information associated with the mission. This includes capturing images
or video or sensing the presence of a target of interest (people, vehicles,
weapons, chemicals, bio agents, explosives, etc.) by using a combination
of sensors such as acoustic, temperature, pressure, or vibration. This is a
very complex task for a small robot. It involves interrogating a sensor
suite, potentially fusing sensor data, processing raw data into information,
and making decisions about thresholds. It involves detection,
classification, and identification. While a significant amount of R&D is
being conducted in this area, the ability to incorporate an adequately
sophisticated set of of sensors and high-speed processing on a small robot
is beyond current technical capability. Small robots can, however, sense
raw data and communicate to a central processor capable of analyzing and
deciding and then communicating reaction information back to the robot.
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The use of many distributed robots (mobile sensor platforms) can add
significant value to a surveillance or reconnaissance mission.
The fourth level of intelligent-like behavior is exhibited through
collaboration and control of multiple small robots. Little progress has
been made in overcoming significant technical barriers to collaboration.
These barriers are primarily associated with communications and
networking. Small robots operate close to the ground and
communications are limited to short ranges (10 to 100 meters) because of
ground coupling, multipath, small available antenna volume, interference,
and power requirements associated with transmit and receive duty cycles.
Networking solutions that try to overcome communication limitations
result in large processing delay times. While progress is being made in
this area, the current state-of-the-art for small robots results in effective
behavior at the expense of time. So, while the overall robot group can
perform a task, the extended time consumed make the group appear to be
sluggish or slightly stupid.
The intelligent behavior of a robot and therefore its level of autonomy
is difficult to characterize quantitatively. This is primarily because the
definition of human intelligence and autonomy suffers from similar
difficulties. Intelligent-like behavior requires a systematic coordination of
multiple sensing modalities, sensor- and application-specific signal
processing, decision making in unstructured and sometimes very complex
environments, and some form of collaboration with human operators.
Incorporating locomotion, sensing, processing, and communications on a
single platform is possible, but that platform is by necessity large and
expensive and, to be effective, needs to be tailored to a specific mission.
The integration of these functions on a small robot is difficult, and
progress in all of the technology areas above needs to be developed within
the context of specific missions.
Collaboration
The integration of many smaller, less capable robots into a system of
distributed robots shows great promise. It has been postulated that many
small robots can perform some tasks (not all tasks) more effectively than a
single large robot. While simulations of large numbers of robots have
demonstrated positive results, this hypothesis has not been proven with
real robots in real environments. It is still not clear whether linearly
increasing the number of robots performing a single task results in linear,
sub-linear, or exponential effectiveness. It is, however, intuitive that for
some missions like area searches, multiple collaborating robots assigned to
individual sectors (parallel processing) can probably accomplish the task
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in much less time than a single robot trying to serially search the area.
Effective collaboration requires effective communications among robots
and from robots to central processing sites. It also requires novel
networking architectures that are adaptable to mission-specific tasks.
Finally, efficient algorithms that operate within the architecture need to be
tailored to the robot capabilities, the network and the task. Much progress
has been made in the collaboration of unattended fixed ground sensors, but
using these technical approaches on a large number of mobile sensors
offers order-of-magnitude-greater challenges.
Power
Energy requirements for small robots present serious problems.
Locomotion, sensing, processing, communications and power all require
volume. It is difficult to provide the energy density needed in a small
package. There are four main approaches to address the power issue. The
first focuses upon the selection of low-power electronics and highly
efficient mechanical actuators. The second involves optimizing system
performance for specific missions. For example, the processor should not
be constantly using clock cycles to interrogate an input/output channel
when it is known that no transmission or reception is needed during
specific times. The third involves exploring novel energy supply
technologies such as using circular watch batteries for wheels, conforming
a plastic battery over the surface of the robot, exploiting new energy
sources (fuel cells, MEMS generators, etc.), and examining energy
scavenging techniques. The fourth level explores the tactical deployment
of the robots so they are used in manners that minimize energy
consumption.
Small robots can operate continuously for tens of minutes but less than
an hour depending upon the various duty cycles associated with
locomotion, sensing, processing, and communicating. For highly dynamic
missions like hostage rescue and small building takedowns, mission times
are short and matched to robots power needs. For longer duration
missions, techniques are required that shut down most of the robots
functions but continue to power a seismic sensor, for example, that can
wake the robot into full surveillance operation.
Human-Computer Interfaces
Most robotic operations require interventions by human operators for
mission planning and programming, direct teleoperation, providing
assistance to robot operations, and interpreting robot sensor information.
Human-computer interface (HCI) is typically achieved after the robot
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system has been developed. HCI provides an interesting design problem,
since human capabilities are fixed at one end and robot interfaces are fixed
at the other and the common tools for HCI such as computers, joysticks, or
displays are not typically tailored to operations in extreme environments.
Operators typically need to control the robot, interpret the information
it is providing, and make decisions in time-critical, dangerous
environments. The operator probably has other non-robot functions to
perform such as shooting a weapon, communicating to other team
members, or serving as a medic. A very sophisticated and capable robot is
likely to be completely ignored if the HCI is not simple to use, does not
provide intuitive information, or is too heavy or bulky.
Most operator control units consist of a laptop computer with a
joystick packaged in a rugged suitcase. This setup requires an operator to
place the unit on a level surface, view robot operations either on a sun
immersed LCD screen or one that projects light at night, and occasionally
enter information via key strokes while wearing protective gloves. Since
this in an unacceptable interface, other HCI hardware attempts to match
the operators body though the use of wearable computers and head
mounted displays. These solutions still require additional development to
reduce their size, bulk and heat signature.
Of significant importance is how information is presented to the
operator. Typical computer window applications require operator
attention to guide and navigate through menus and, thereby, limit the
operators ability to focus on information. Other interfaces provide a
display that shows real-time video from a robot camera. This often
requires an operator to view the information even when nothing significant
is being presented.
There is a strong need for simple-to-use hardware that is
environmentally robust, reliable, low power, and unobtrusive. The
presentation of information needs to be accomplished in a manner that is
intuitive and appeals to the perceptual rather than the cognitive abilities of
the operator. New efforts that create and present representations of the
environment and objects of interest are needed. Also needed are methods
to create representations of representations (meta-representations) to put
objects and environments in a mission context.
Many robots are developed with the presumption that their unique
design will offer discriminating mobility for a wide variety of users.
Developers often become frustrated when military operators inevitably
want to add their own sensors and radios resulting in robot modifications
that make them larger and able to carry more batteries. A mistaken
conclusion is that military operators want large robots. They dont; they
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219
want small, lightweight capability. Robots should not be thought of
simply as platforms. They must be designed and developed as a system
that provides a capability. The original design must include unique
mobility, navigation, communications, processing, autonomy, and human-
computer interfaces. The robots must be able to operate with people, other
unmanned vehicles, and other sensors within the context of tactics and be
able to provide a capability that helps successfully perform a mission.
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Annex G.
__________________________________________________________Remoter Force

221
ANNEX G.
REMOTER FORCE ____________________________________
The U.S. Department of Defense has expanding experience with
unmanned platforms. Primarily, this experience has been with unmanned
aerial vehicles, which are increasingly an indispensable tool for our
warfighters. Indeed, it seems that the challenges of creating significant
unmanned capabilities are in the category of present-day urgent needs.
While there are important developmental improvements needed in
unmanned platform capabilities, a conclusion of this report is that all of
the important engineering problems are already being addressed to some
degree in the Departments activities with few, if any, obvious ways in
which to improve the pace of this work.
There is, however, another opportunity, that would combine the
capabilities of current and future unmanned platforms with current and
future communications capabilities. What is envisioned is a day when
unmanned platforms are remotely operated not from beyond the hill or
over the horizon, but from anywhere in the world. Such an approach
would have additional collateral benefits, namely, that it might relieve
some of the difficult technological challenges that exist today by altering
the balance between automation and human remote control. Altering this
balance would permit duty cycles that better optimize work and rest cycles
since many more individuals would be participating. As well, this
approach would relieve some of the detailed control tasks necessary for
automated systems by including, at least in the near term, a human in the
loop.
Interpretation of information requiring human processing capabilities
would be dramatically enhanced. Perhaps most importantly, however,
remote operations would change the nature of our views on military
personnel and allow DoD to effectively use people with extraordinary
skills outside the normal circle of uniformed personnel. Indeed, in the
limit, active duty personnel might consist not only of uniformed personnel
selected for the historically significant war fighting attributes, but also of a
remoter force selected for their elite capabilities in remote control
operations.
An entire Army of such remoters is in training today. (See Figure
G-1.) The revolution in massive multiplayer gaming was discussed in
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Chapter III. The idea of a remoter force seeks to extend the concept of
this continuous training and concept exploration to a concrete military
capability.
Figure G-1. In TrainingAn Army of Remoters.

This idea amounts to what was referred to in Chapter III as turning the
reality dial. MMP is a virtual environment that explores doctrine and
behaviors; the Remoter Force is a single realization of the power of such a
massively collaborative tool.
The overall objective, therefore, is to include many more people in any
conflict in which the Department engages. Not by putting more boots on
the ground, but by force-multiplication: for every one person on the
ground, a group of remoters would be responsible for controlling small
advanced surveillance systems, processing that data, managing the 24-
hour duty cycles required, and performing other support activities. This is
the concept behind Enders Game, the science-fiction novel written by
Orson Scott Card, which effectively blends the remote world with the
physical. This concept would redefine the U.S. fighting force and create a
high-fidelity, system-level capability out of massively parallel, low-
fidelity pieces that capitalize on the ability to use large, distributed, secure
world-wide networks effectively.
Annex G.
__________________________________________________________Remoter Force

223
For all the revolutionary changes and opportunities that are apparent in
this (potentially inevitable) technical concept, it is also one of the most
disquieting, particularly for military commanders. In particular, the lack of
direct control implied by this concept and the reliance on system-level
redundancy over individual element reliability causes great consternation.
Among the key questions are the following:
a. How would we determine that the right person is fighting?
b. If a 15-year-old has world-class talents in remote control,
will he or she have the discipline and emotional maturity
necessary to fight in a battle?
c. What are the implications of putting weapons systems on
these remote systems at the hands of those not directly on the
ground?
d. What are the training implications?
e. What about the limitations of current platforms in terms of
endurance, payload, and so on?
f. What is the compromise implied by reducing the fidelity of
individual platforms so as to achieve the expendability that
would be required to permit non-military personnel to
control them?
All of these are problems to be overcome, since they imply new
concepts of operations, new procedures, new training, and new enlistment
possibilities. These are also cultural and organizational issues, not purely
technical ones. Technological requirements also exist, such as the need to
ensure security of remote unmanned platform operations with high-
bandwidth and near-continuous communications. And we see the
implications for training as favorable, especially when combined with the
massive multiplayer concepts discussed in Chapter III. Indeed, these
capabilities would permit DoD to continuously train and test for the most
talented pool of remoters. It should be noted that remoters and on the
ground forces should train together in order to gain an element of
understanding and trust.
As mentioned earlier, the participation of a remoter force is likely to
be a future inevitability, especially as wireless, secure communications
and high-bandwidth infrastructures improve. Adversaries who do not draw
such strong lines of distinction between their fighting personnel and
civilians and who are more willing to create distributed command cells
will not be so reticent to embrace the power of this collaborative approach.
The events of September 11th and the role that personal-computer based
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flight simulation, as well as higher fidelity flight simulation, played in
preparing the terrorists for their role as hijackers and pilots is but a small
premonition of what may be to come.
Technological challenges involving power, sensing, mobility and
navigation, among others, are prevalent in the use of unmanned platforms.
These challenges are currently addressed in a myriad of DoD programs.
(See Annex F for a discussion of ground-platform technology.) These
programs are expansive and dedicate large dollars to the overall
improvement of such platforms. There appears to be no significant
technological breakthrough on the horizon that would significantly alter
the pace of improvement, which is largely evolutionary. This observation
should not be interpreted as an indictment of current efforts, but rather
encouragement to stay the course. The realization of a remoter force will
perhaps ease some of the demand by focusing on a largely underdeveloped
aspect of the use of such platforms: namely, achieving the desired goals
through massive parallelism and the direct intervention of humans on a
large scale.

Appendix H.
___________________________________ Glossary of Acronyms and Abbreviations

225
ANNEX H.
GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS
AND ABBREVIATIONS__________________________________
ACTD Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrations
AEF Air Expeditionary Force

BDA Battle Damage Assessment
BW Biological Warfare

C4ISR Command, Control, Communications, and
Computers and Intelligence, Surveillance, and
Reconnaissance
C4I Command, Control, Communications, Computers
and Intelligence
CEO Chief Executive Officer
CINC Commander-in-Chief
CJCS Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
CONUS Continental United States
CTO Chief Technology Officer

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Project Agency
DDR&E Director, Defense Research and Engineering
DOT&E Director, Operational Test and Evaluation
DSB Defense Science Board
DTED Digital Terrain and Elevation Data
DTRA Defense Threat Reduction Agency

EMD Engineering and Manufacturing Development
EMW Expeditionary Maneuver Warfare

FCS Future Combat System
FDA Food and Drug Administration

GMTI Ground Moving Target Indicator
GPS Global Positioning System

HCI Human-Computer Interface
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HHS Health and Human Services

ISR Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance

JFCOM Joint Forces Command

MEMS Micro-Electro-Mechanical System
MMP Massive Multiplayer

NCO Network Centric Operations
NIH National Institutes of Health

OSD(C3I) Office of the Secretary of Defense for Command,
Control, Communications and Intelligence

PPBS Planning, Programming and Budgeting System

R&D Research and Development
RAP Rapid Acquisition Program
RDT&E Research, Development, Test and Evaluation
RF Radio Frequency

S&E Scientists and Engineers
S&T Science and Technology

TEG Thermo-electric
TRAC Threat Reduction Advisory Committee

UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
UHF Ultra High Frequency
USD(AT&L) Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,
Technology and Logistics

VC Venture Capital

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2001 Summer Study

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