Referencias:
NOA: Salta+Tucumn+Jujuy+Catamarca+Oeste Sgo del Estero.
NEA: Chaco+Este Sgo del Estero+Formosa.
Ctro N Sfe: Centro-Norte de Santa Fe. Ctro N Cba: Centro-Norte de Crdoba.
Ncleo Norte: Este de Crdoba+Centro-Sur de Santa Fe+Sudoeste de Entre Ros.
S Cba: Sur de Crdoba. N LP-O BA: Norte de La Pampa+ Oeste de Buenos Aires.
Ctro E ER: Entre Ros excluido Victoria y Diamante.
Ctro BA: Centro de Buenos Aires.
SO BA-S LP: Sudoeste de Buenos Aires+Sur de La Pampa.
SE BA: Sudeste de Buenos Aires. SL: San Luis.
Cuenca Sal: Este de la Cuenca del Salado. Otras: Corrientes+Misiones.
B U E N O S A I R E S G R A I N E X C H A N G E
WEEK ENDED ON Sep. 11, 2014
CROP REPORT - HIGHLIGHTS
Estimations and Agricultural Projections Department
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange
WEEKLY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUENOS AIRES GRAINS EXCHANGE
September 11, 2014
AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: SEPTEMBER 11 TO 17, 2014: TEMPERATURE RISE AND
PRECIPITATIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF THE AGRICULTURAL AREA.
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Early in the perspective, the passage of a cold air mass will drop temperatures over most part of the
agricultural area with likelihood of frost in the West and South. Northerly winds will soon return raising temperatures
and bringing abundant atmospheric humidity. There will be precipitations of warm front in the northeast and east-
center of the Ag. area, with likelihood of severe storms. On the contrary, most part of the Center and West will report
scarce values.
CORN
A new commercial corn year has begun, reporting a YOY fall of area of -16 % nationwide.
Consequently, this 2014/15 corn year is expecting to sow 3,000,000 hectares, marking a reduction of 570,000
HA, compared to 3,570,000 HA sown in 2013/14.
The main variables affecting corn area are economy-related. Future corn prices, international quotes,
supplies and field rent prices, among other, have an impact on profitability as well as on sowing intention.
Several corn tours have reported the largest area reductions, observed in the North Belt (-25 %), South
Belt (-22 %), Cordoba (-20 %), and in the North of La Pampa-West of Buenos Aires. All these areas present a
high percentage of rented fields, whereby the difference between producing corn in proprietary fields and
rented fields is significant.
In the Mid-North of Santa Fe and Mid-East of Entre Ros, area reduction was -12 % and -10 %, down
from last season, respectively. This is due to domestic consumption (feedlots and chicken production)
demanded by the crop, which buffers the fall.
This framework is subject to the conditions of the following months, going through the sowing
window.
On the other hand, early sowings continue to expand towards the South of Cordoba and the North Belt,
in addition to the regions referred to in previous reports (Mid-North of Santa Fe, Mid-East of Entre Ros and
Corrientes).
Finally, corn season 2013/14 is finished. Although some plots are pending in the North of the country
(NW and NE Areas), as well as in the province of Buenos Aires (Center and South), the area is not significant.
Consequently, year 2013/14 finshes with a production of 25,200,000 tons nationwide, -7.4 % down from last
corn season 2012/13: 27 Mtn), having planted 3,570,000 Ha. National average yield was 7.48 Tn/Ha and area
loss reached up to 5.5 % (197,000 Ha) of the area.
CORN HARVEST As of: Sep. 11, 2014
Sown Lost Harvestable
I NOA 282.000 17.000 265.000 100,0 265.000 62,0 1.643.000
II NEA 302.000 13.000 289.000 100,0 289.000 69,9 2.021.360
III Ctro N Cba 580.000 14.000 566.000 100,0 566.000 83,6 4.734.250
IV S Cba 410.000 25.000 385.000 100,0 385.000 76,8 2.958.500
V Ctro N SFe 136.000 30.000 106.000 100,0 106.000 68,5 725.600
VI Ncleo Norte 360.000 7.000 353.000 100,0 353.000 88,3 3.116.100
VII Ncleo Sur 320.000 11.000 309.000 100,0 309.000 91,0 2.812.600
VIII Ctro E ER 151.000 12.000 139.000 100,0 139.000 55,2 767.625
IX N LP-OBA 424.000 30.000 394.000 100,0 394.000 74,2 2.923.600
X Ctro BA 218.000 11.000 207.000 100,0 207.000 63,7 1.318.300
XI SO BA-S LP 100.000 11.000 89.000 100,0 89.000 46,0 409.100
XII SE BA 90.000 5.000 85.000 100,0 85.000 73,3 623.200
XIII SL 130.000 4.000 126.000 100,0 126.000 64,0 806.550
XIV Cuenca Sal 48.000 4.000 44.000 100,0 44.000 68,8 302.550
XV Otras 19.000 3.000 16.000 100,0 16.000 52,1 83.400
3.570.000 197.000 3.373.000 100,0 3.373.000 74,8 25.245.735
Porcentage
Harvested (%)
Hectares
Harvested
Yield
(qq/Ha)
Production
(Tn) Zone
Hectareage (Ha)
TOTAL
2013/14 Season
WHEAT
Within the last seven days it rained again over most of the Buenos Aires region, thus worsening the
floodings of plots and rural roads along the East margin, though improving moisture supplies in the West, as
well as in the East of La Pampa. Likewise, the same storm front provided moisture to the center of the
country, where many plots were suffering water deficit. However, the storm did not contribute moisture in
the North of the country, which comprises a little more than 10 % of the national sown area, estimated at
4,100,000 hectares this season.
In Central Buenos Aires, most of the sown wheat is going through tillering in water excess conditions.
In the regions of Cuenca del Salado and the SE coast of Buenos Aires, flooded plots cover a wider
area, not only owing to the rains of previous months, but also because these are low regions which are close
to the sea, accumulating water excesses in the West and Center of the province. It is relevant to point out
that many of these regions were already saturated with water before the start of the sowing window.
Conversely, in the SW of Buenos Aires and South of La Pampa, most of the crop is tillering in very
good conditions. The evolution and state of the crop was observed to be similar in the West of Buenos Aires
and North of La Pampa, where the latest rains replenished the fields.
In the Center, several plots sitting along the East margin were benefitted by these precipitations. At the
same time, the West received rainfalls of lower intensity, which could not revert the water deficit in the South
of Cordoba.
In the Mid-North of Santa Fe, crop is elongating stems with proper conditions, in a crop condition
ranging from good to excellent.
Finally, the NW and NE Areas did not recover moisture after the storm. Most of the plots in both
regions are ranging from stem elongation to ear formation, with limited water supplies, which impacts on
harvest yield potential.
WHEAT PLANTING As of: Sep 11, 2014
2013/14 2014/15
I NOA 50.000 175.000 100,0 175.000
II NEA 140.000 250.000 100,0 250.000
III Ctro N Cba 320.000 390.000 100,0 390.000
IV S Cba 156.000 177.000 100,0 177.000
V Ctro N SFe 192.000 215.000 100,0 215.000
VI Ncleo Norte 315.000 355.000 100,0 355.000
VII Ncleo Sur 280.000 294.000 100,0 294.000
VIII Ctro E ER 180.000 200.000 100,0 200.000
IX N LP-OBA 300.000 330.000 100,0 330.000
X Ctro BA 165.000 140.000 100,0 140.000
XI SO BA-S LP 800.000 900.000 100,0 900.000
XII SE BA 650.000 610.000 100,0 610.000
XIII SL 4.000 5.000 100,0 5.000
XIV Cuenca Sal 60.000 50.000 100,0 50.000
XV Otras 8.000 9.000 100,0 9.000
3.620.000 4.100.000 100,0 4.100.000
Hectareage (Ha) Porcentage
planted (%)
Hectares
planted
TOTAL
Zone
2014/15 Season
SUNFLOWER
Sunflower sowing is in slow progress nationwide. Despite heterogeneous rainfalls on early sunflower
regions, lack of moisture continues to be a limiting factor. Consequently, only a week away from sowing in
the NE Area, and less than 20 days before sowing in the Mid-North of Santa Fe, the estimated sowing area
has been adjusted accordingly. In addition, water excess observed in most of SE Buenos Aires and in
Cuenca del Salado during the last seven days is making things worse for the crop.
Therefore, sunflower area has dropped by -50,000 hectares nationwide, compared to the initial
intention of (1.4 MHa.). New estimate is around 1,350,000 hectares, which is the smallest area in the last five
seasons.
To date, national sowing progress is 18.1 %, accounting for an area of 245,000 hectares, with a week-
on-week advance of 1.8 percentage points, and a YOY advance of +5.7 %.
In Chaco and Santiago del Estero 86 % of plots are emerged, with the most advanced ones showing 4
to 6 pairs of unfolded leaves. Lack of moisture is starting to affect development, whereby in most of the NE
Area conditions are bad for the crop.
Buenos Aires, September 11, 2014 Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
