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Single Exponential Smoothing Algorithm: 3.1 Notation

This document discusses single exponential smoothing, an algorithm for forecasting time series data. It defines the notation used, describes how the algorithm works by updating forecasts based on errors from previous forecasts, and shows that forecasts are a weighted average of all past observations with more recent observations getting higher weights. It includes exercises for practicing applying the algorithm.

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RizkyIndra Permana
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31 views

Single Exponential Smoothing Algorithm: 3.1 Notation

This document discusses single exponential smoothing, an algorithm for forecasting time series data. It defines the notation used, describes how the algorithm works by updating forecasts based on errors from previous forecasts, and shows that forecasts are a weighted average of all past observations with more recent observations getting higher weights. It includes exercises for practicing applying the algorithm.

Uploaded by

RizkyIndra Permana
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 3

Single Exponential Smoothing Algorithm


3.1 Notation
From now on in the course we use the following notation:
y
1
, y
2
, . . . , y
n
are the observed values of the time series
y
n
is the last value of the series tobe observedi.e. we are currently at time n (months, quarters, years...)
Forecasts for the value of the series at future times n+1, n+2, . . ., using a model tted to y
1
, . . . , y
n
, are
denoted F
n+1
, F
n+2
, . . .. The k-step ahead forecast from time n would be F
n+k
.
Fitted values using the model are F
1
, . . . , F
n
.
The residuals or errors are y
1
F
1
, . . . , y
n
F
n
.
3.1.1 Single Exponential Smoothing
There is no obvious statistical model that we try to t (by regression or another tting technique). Exponen-
tial Smoothing is simply an algorithm for creating forecasts iteratively on the basis of how well one did with
previous forecasts.
Suppose we make a forecast F
t
for the value of y
t
(which is not yet observed).
Now we observe y
t
and wish to make a forecast F
t +1
. We do this by taking our old forecast F
t
and
adjusting it using the error in forecasting y
t
as follows:
F
t +1
=F
t
+(y
t
F
t
),
where is between 0 and 1.
The nearer is to 1 then the larger the adjustment.
We cannot forecast the rst term in the series (since F
1
=F
0
+(y
0
F
0
) and there is no F
0
or y
0
). By
convention, we x F
1
= y
1
and only forecast y
2
onwards.
16
CHAPTER 3. SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING ALGORITHM
'
&
$
%
Init: F
1
= y
1
and choose 0 <<1
Forecast:

F
t +1
=F
t
+ (y
t
F
t
)
Until no more observation are available then
F
n+k
=F
n+1
, k 1
Table 3.1: Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Algorithm.
3.2 What does Exponential Smoothing Really Do?
If we recursively apply the smoothing equation to F
t +1
, we get:
F
t +1
= F
t
+ (y
t
F
t
)
= [F
t 1
+ (y
t 1
F
t 1
)] + (y
t
[F
t 1
+ (y
t 1
F
t 1
)])
= y
t
+ (1) y
t 1
+(1)
2
F
t 1
,
Now F
t +1
is in terms of y
t
, y
t 1
and F
t 1
. We can repeat this, replacing F
t 1
by F
t 2
+(y
t 2
F
t 2
), to get
F
t +1
is in terms of y
t
, y
t 1
, y
t 2
and F
t 2
. Doing this replacement another t 3 times, we end up with F
t +1
in terms of y
1
, . . . , y
t
and F
1
, and the following equation for F
t +1
:
F
t +1
= y
t
+ (1) y
t 1
+ (1)
2
y
t 2
+ + (1)
t 1
y
1
+(1)
t
F
1
(3.1)
So exponential smoothing forecasts are a weighted sum of all the previous observations.
3.3 Exercises
(1) What is F
t +1
when =0? What happens as increases to 1? What range of values must F
t +1
lie in?
(2) Here is a short time series. Calculate the exponentially smoothed series and make a forecast for the
next value in the sequence, using =0.5 and =0.1:
t y
t
F
t
(for =0.5) error F
t
(for =0.1) error
1 3 3 0 3 0
2 4
3 2
4
(3) Can you make k-step ahead forecasts using exponential smoothing?
(4) Which observation is given the biggest weight in the formula (3.1) for F
t +1
. Which is given the small-
est? Is this sensible?
17 Rozenn Dahyot 2011

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