This document summarizes unemployment and underemployment rates in rural India based on National Sample Survey data from 1977-1978 and 1983. It finds:
- Usual status unemployment declined from 1977-78 to 1983, while full unemployment and person-day unemployment saw little change. Rates of moderate and severe underemployment increased, while marginal underemployment declined.
- Unemployment and underemployment rates were generally higher for females than males and varied significantly across states, with the highest rates in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and the lowest in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
This document summarizes unemployment and underemployment rates in rural India based on National Sample Survey data from 1977-1978 and 1983. It finds:
- Usual status unemployment declined from 1977-78 to 1983, while full unemployment and person-day unemployment saw little change. Rates of moderate and severe underemployment increased, while marginal underemployment declined.
- Unemployment and underemployment rates were generally higher for females than males and varied significantly across states, with the highest rates in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and the lowest in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
Original Description:
This is a doc for the unemployment and underemployment in India
This document summarizes unemployment and underemployment rates in rural India based on National Sample Survey data from 1977-1978 and 1983. It finds:
- Usual status unemployment declined from 1977-78 to 1983, while full unemployment and person-day unemployment saw little change. Rates of moderate and severe underemployment increased, while marginal underemployment declined.
- Unemployment and underemployment rates were generally higher for females than males and varied significantly across states, with the highest rates in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and the lowest in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
This document summarizes unemployment and underemployment rates in rural India based on National Sample Survey data from 1977-1978 and 1983. It finds:
- Usual status unemployment declined from 1977-78 to 1983, while full unemployment and person-day unemployment saw little change. Rates of moderate and severe underemployment increased, while marginal underemployment declined.
- Unemployment and underemployment rates were generally higher for females than males and varied significantly across states, with the highest rates in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and the lowest in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
in Rural India Satya Paul This paper examines spatial and temporal variations in unemployment and underemployment in rural India. It identifies some of the important correlates of rural unemployment There is a discussion of the existing approaches to the measurement of unemployment and presentation of a conceptual framework for the measurement of underemployment. An examination of the unemployed by different characteristics such as occupation, education, level of consumption expenditure, age, etc, is also undertaken. I I n t r o d u c t i o n THE purpose of this paper is two fold: firstly to examine spatial and temporal varia- tions in unemployment and underemploy- ment, and secondly, to identify some of the important correlates of unemployment in rural India. The study has been based on the National Sample Survey data relating to the 32nd round (July 1977 - June 1978) and 38th round (January - December 1983), The plan of the paper is as follows. Section 2 discusses the existing approaches of measuring unemployment and introduces a conceptual framework to the measurement of under- employment. Section 3 examines regional and temporal variations in unemployment and underemployment in rural India. Sec- tion 4 studies the correlates of unemploy- ment by examining the distribution of un- employed by their different characteristics such as occupation, education, level of con- sumption expenditure, age, etc. The relation- ship between poverty and unemployment is also examined. The conclusions are presented in Section 5. I I Me a s u r i n g Un e mp l o y me n t a n d Un d e r e mp l o y me n t Following the recommendations of the Dantwala Committee [Government of India, 1979), three different approaches have been adopted in the N-.tional Sample Surveys (NSS) for determining the activity status of each person in the population, 'aged 5 years and above'. These are: (a) usual status ap- proach with a reference period of 365 days preceding the date of survey, (b) weekly status approach wi t h a reference period of seven days preceding the date of survey, and (c) daily status approach, the reference period being each day of the seven days preceding the date of survey. According to the usual status approach, a person is classified as unemployed if he/she was not working but was either seeking or was available for work for a relatively longer time during the reference period of 365 days. A person is classified as employed if he/she was engaged for a relatively longer period during the reference period, and all others are classified as ' not in labour force'. Thus, this approach identifies those who are chronically unemployed and their proportion in the total labour force is taken as the rate of usual status (chronic) unemployment. It is impor- tant to note that all the employed and unemployed taken together constitute the total labour force. 1 The weekly status approach classifies a person as unemployed if he/she has not worked for at least one hour on any one day of the week but had been seeking work or had been available for work at any time dur- ing the week. Al l those who have worked at least for one hour on any day during the week (even if they were idle for rest of en- tire period), are classified as employed. Thus, this approach seeks to capture only the week- long full (open) unemployment. According to the daily status approach, each person is assigned one or at the most two activity statuses on each day of the week. A person is considered employed for the entire day if he/she worked for four hours or more on the day. However, if he/she worked for one hour or more but less than four hours, he/she is considered employed for the half day and unemployed or 'not in labour force' for the other half of the day depending on whether he/she was seeking/ available for work or not on the day. On the other hand, if a person was not engaged in any gainful work even for one hour on the day but was seeking/available for work for four hours or more, he/she was considered unemployed for the entire day. But, if he/she was available for work for less than four hours, he/she was considered unemployed for half day and 'not in labour force' for the other half of the day. A person, who had neither any gainful work to do nor was available for work even for half of the day, was considered 'not in labour force' for the entire day. Aggregating across half-day units over the week, total person-days unemployed and total person-days employed are counted in the sample. Total person-days unemployed expressed as the proportion of total person- days of the labour force provide person-day rate of unemployment (PDUR). Since the NSS data are collected in four sub-rounds (with equal number of households in each round) 2, the PDUR seeks to capture the (average) intensity of the underutilisation of labour time. The extent of underutilisation of labour time is only one facet of the problem of underemployment. What is equally impor- tant is to know the rate (incidence) of underemployment in the labour force. This requires the identification of underemploy- ment to which we now turn. Suppose a per- son, say i, worked for m li days and reported for moi days during the reference week, then he/she may be considered unemployed or underemployed if In a recent paper, Visaria [1981] classifies a person as unemployed if the under- employed person days in the reference week exceed the number of employed person days. It can easily be verified that all those relating to the category (0.50< u i 1) from Visaria's set of unemployed. Clearly this set does not incorporate ai l the underemployed. It follows from the above that no single approach would capture the different aspects of unemployment and underemployment, Al l the alternative rates of unemployment, namely, usual status unemployment rate (USUR), PDUR, full (week long) unemploy- ment rate and the rates of underemployment of different degrees, need to be computed to have a comprehensive view of unemploy- ment. This is what we attempt in this paper. Economic and Political Weekly July 16, 1988 1475 where wi l l denote full (open) unemployment, u i - 0 full employment and all other values of u ; lying between zero and unity wi l l denote underemployment of different intensities. For practical ease, we can define three broad degrees of under- employment, namely, I l l Re g i o n a l a n d T e mp o r a l Va r i a t i o n s i n R u r a l Un e mp l o y me n t a n d Un d e r e mp l o y me n t Table 1 gives the rates of usual status unemployment, person-day unemployment and the rates of underemployment for rural India for the years 1977-78 and 1983. The rates for 1977-78 are based on NSS 32nd round data and those for 1983 on NSS 38th round data. The rates of underemployed in the labour force are computed using weekly time disposal data published in the form of the distribution of labour force and the number of unemployed days by the number of days worked (specified wi t h the interval of X A day unit) in the week. For 1977-78, the rate of usual status (chronic) unemployment is the lowest, followed by the rate of f ul l unemployment. The person-day rate of unemployment is 7,70. The rates of underemployment are, however, quite high: about I / 5t h of labour force is found in the state of underemploy- ment. The incidence of severe underemploy- ment is negligible whereas marginal underemployment is relatively high. The rates of unemployment and under- employment for females are higher than those for males (Table I). This shows that employment opportunities for females are fewer than those for males in rural areas. Over the period 1977-78 to 1983, the rate of usual status unemployment has declined significantly. The changes i n the rates of full unemployment and person-day unemploy- ment are negligible. The rates of 'moderate' and 'severe' underemployment have increased whereas the rate of marginal underemploy- ment declined considerably. This is an i m- portant change in the structure of under- employment which led the rate of overall underemployment to decline by about two percentage points over the period of five years. There are large variations in the rates of unemployment and underemployment across the states (Table 2). These rates show that the extent of unemployment and under- 1476 Economic and Political Weekly July 16, 1988 employment is the highest in Kerala and the second highest in Tamil Nadu. Assam, Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan show very low rates of unemployment and under- employment. In eight states (Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), the rates of unemployment and underemployment among females are higher than the males; the picture is however the reverse in Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir (Table 3). While several 'factors like natural assets base, agricultural productivity, wages, oc- cupational structure, level of education, etc, might be responsible for differences in the rates of unemployment and underemploy- ment across the states, 4 our research is restricted to the examining the association between rates of unemployment and agri- cultural productivity. A priori one would ex- pect a negative association between the two. The existing evidence, however, does not sup- port this hypothesis. In a study based on NSS 27th round (1971-72) data for 56 regions of rural India, Lakdawala [1977] observed a positive and statistically significant cor- relation of 0.30 between PDUR and agri- cultural output per hectare (in rupees 1970-71 to 1972-73). A recent study by Sundaram and Tendulkar [1988] which is also based on the same data, however, showed no significant relationship between Economic and Political Weekly July 16, 1988 1477 PDUR and agricultural output per hectare (AGHA). The study reports that coefficient of AGHA for PDUR in a multiple linear regression model is negative (- 0.001663) but statistically insignificant. We regress USUR, PDUR and the rate of ' ful l unemployment and underemployment' (FAUR) separately on AGHA 5 using the 32nd round data for 17 major states. The coefficient of AGKA in equations (2) and (3) is insignificant which implies that there is no statistically significant association bet- ween PDUR and AGHA and between FAUR and AGHA. The coefficient of AGHA for USUR is positive and statistically significant (Eq 1). This supports the hypothesis that in the absence of any unemployment dole, people in low agricultural. productivity regions cannot afford to remain idle for a long time; they either migrate to a neigh- bouring high productivity region or engage themselves in low-paid activities. The outflow of labourers from agriculturally less developed regions to developed regions is well known in India. ( 1) USUR=: -2.65 + 0.00357 AGHA (-1.12) (2.92) R 2 = 0.36 (2) PDUR = 1.35+0.00351 AGHA (3.77) (1.80) R 2 = 0.18 (3) FAUR = 9.76+0.00570 AGHA (1.13) (1.28) R 2 = 0.09 (Values within parentheses are the t-values) Table 4 reveals the changes in three rates of unemployment (namely, PDUR, USUR and weekly status) in 1983 over 1977-78 for each state. However, the state-wise rates of underemployment for 1983 could not be worked out due to the non-availability of NSS 38th round detailed data. The observed 1478 Economic and Political Weekly July 16, 1988 changes in the three rates of unemployment in 1983 over 1977-78 are not uniform across the states. In eight states, namely, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, all the three rates of unemployment have declined. In all these states, the magnitude of decline in unemployment rates for females is much larger than for males. In three states, namely, Assam, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, all the' three rates show an increase in un- employment over the period. In all other states, the usual status unemployment rate have declined but the two other rates have increased, thus, indicating a change in the nature of rural unemptoyrnem ower its period 1977-78 to 1983. I V Correlates of Unempl oyment We now proceed to discuss the correlates of unemployment by examining the distribu- Economic and Political Weekly July 16, 1988 1479 tion of unemployed by their different characteristics such as occupation, educa- tion, level of consumption expenditure, age, etc. However the distribution of under- employed could not be examined due to non- availability of data. PER CAPI TA CONSUMPTI ON EXPENDI TURE, POVERTY A N D UNEMP LOYMENT The estimates of the three rates of unemployment by levels of per capita con- sumption expenditure (PCE) presented in Table 5 reveal several things, (i) There are wide differences in the three rates of unemployment at the lower level of PCE, the difference between them tends to converge as we move on to higher PCE classes. This indicates that rates of unemployment among the poor households are relatively more sen- sitive to the concept of unemployment, (ii) In the case of rural all-India, Kerala and Madhya Pradesh, the three rates of un- employment decline consistently as we move from the lower PCE class to the higher PCE classes implying that levels of living and unemployment are inversely related, (iii) For six states (Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh) no systematic rela- tionship between PCE and unemployment rate is observed, (iv) In some states, (Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Punjab), the rates of unemployment first increase up to the second or third PCE class and then show a declining trend. The low rate of unemploy- ment in the lowest PCE class is understan- dable in that these people are perhaps too poor to remain idle, (v) In all other states, the unemployment rates decline consistently up to the eighth expenditure class and then move upwards. The upward trend in un- employment towards the end of the upper tail of PCE distribution suggest that peo- ple in well-off families prefer to remain idle for relatively longer periods, in order to search for better jobs. Nevertheless, the unemployment rates among the poor 6 are higher than the average level in a majority of states (compare Table 6 wi t h Table 2). In each state, poverty is much widely spread than unemployment/underemploy- ment (Tables 6 and 2). This phenomenon has also been observed in some earlier Indian studies [see, for example, Visaria (1981) and Sundaram and Tendulkar (1988)]. Based on the aggregate data for 56 agricultural regions of India relating to the NSS 27th round (1972-73), Sundaram and Tendulkar found a positive and significant association between poverty ratio (PR) and person-day unemployment rate. As will be shown below, this hypothesis is not supported by the NSS 32nd round (1977-78) aggregate data for 17 major states. The values of the coefficient of correlation (r) between poverty ratio and person-day unemployment rate and between PR and 'full unemployment and under- employment rate' are positive, r is negative between PR and usual status employment rate. But in none of the cases the value of r is statistically significant. Even the values of r between PR and unemployment rates among the poor are low and statistically quite insignificant (Table 7). Thus, the hypothesis of positive and significant association between poverty and unemploy- ment supported by the NSS 27th round (1972-73) data is rejected by the NSS 32nd round (1977-78) data. UNEMPL OYMENT BY OCCUPATI ON GROUNDS Table 8 gives the person-days unemploy- ment rates by occupation groups of households. The occupation groups are; (1) self-employed households, (2) self- employed non-agricultural households, (3) agricultural labour households, (4) other labour households, and (5) other house- holds. 7 For rural India as a whole, the person-days unemployment rate is found to be lowest among the self-employed house- holds and the highest among agricultural labour households. Person-days unemploy- ment rate among females is higher than among males in all the occupation categories except self-employed agricultural house- holds. Agricultural labour households alone contribute about 61 per cent towards total person-days unemployment in the rural area. The occupational distribution of person- days unemployment is not uniform across states. While in about half of the states, the person-days unemployment rates among females are higher than among males in most of the occupations, the picture in the other half is reverse. In Assam, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, the agricultural labour households show relatively very low rates of unemployment and their contribution towards total person- days unemployment is also very low: 12 per 1480 Economic and Political Weekly July 16, 1988 cent in Assam, 7 per cent in Himachal Pradesh and 3 per cent in Jammu and Kashmir. But in all other states, agricultural labour households contribute 31 to 74 per cent towards total person-days unemploy- ment. It can thus be inferred that any economic programme which ensures full employment to all the unemployed in agricultural labour households would con- siderably ease the situation of unemploy- ment in the rural sector. UNEMP LOYMENT RATES BY LEVELS OF EDUCATI ON Table 9 shows the rates of usual status (chronic) unemployment by levels of educa- tion. In rural India as a whole, the rate of chronic unemployment is the highest (21.68) among the 'graduates and above' and second highest among those who have passed the secondary schooling. The unemployment rate is the lowest (2.06) among illiterates. This is understandable in view of the fact that illiterates are not professionals and therefore accept whatever jobs they get. While the unemployment rates among the educated are higher than the illiterates in each state, their magnitude differs across the states. For instance, the unemployment rates among the 'graduates and above' range from 8.50 to 45.95 per centthe lowest being in Madhya Pradesh and the highest in Tamil Nadu. In six states (Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), the unemployment rates among the 'graduates and above' are higher than the .corresponding figures at the all- India level. Thus, educated unemployment in the rural sector is quite a serious problem and needs to be tackled on a priority basis. A G E DI STRI BUTI ON OF UNEMPLOYED Table 10 gives the usual status (chronic) and person-days unemployment rates by age- group. It is seen that unemployment rates in the age-group (15-29) are the highest for both males and females. The contribution of this group towards total chronic un- employment is also very high: 91 per cent in the case of males and 57 per cent in the case of females. As expected, the chronic unemployment rates among children and the aged are very low. The rates of person-day unemployment also show a similar picture. In an earlier study, Paul [1988] has found that the pattern of age-distribution of unemployed does no! vary significantly across the states. Concl usi ons This study has analysed inter-regional and inter-temporal variations in unemployment and underemployment based on alternative approaches using the NSS 32nd (1977-78) and 38th (1983) rounds survey data for rural India. On the methodological side, it is Economic and Political Weekly July 16, 1988 1481 V households contribute about 16 per cent towards total person-days unemployment in the rural areas. In three states (namely, Assam, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir), the contribution of agri- cultural labour households towards total person-day unemployment is low, whereas in all other states their contribution towards total person-days unemployment varies from 31 per cent to 74 per cent. From this it can be inferred that any economic programme which ensures full employment to all the unemployed in agricultural labour households would considerably ease the situation of un- employment in rural sector. 5 The unemployment rates vary with the levels of education. In the rural sector as a whole, the usual status unemployment rate (USUR) is the lowest (2 per cent) among illiterates and the highest (22 per cent) among the 'graduates and above*. In some states, the USUR among the 'graduates and above' is very high: for instance, in Tamil Nadu it is 46 per cent, in Haryana 32 per cent and in Kerala 30 per Lent. This suggests that educated unemployment is really a serious problem and should be tackled on a priority basis. 1482 Economic and Political Weekly July 16, 1988 argued that the problem of underemploy- ment has, two aspects: one, the overall under utilisation of labour time and the other, the incidence of underemployed in labour force. While the first aspect is well captured by the person-day rate of un- employment, the second aspect is taken care of by introducing a conceptual framework for measuring the incidence of under- employed. Three degrees of underemploy- ment are defined and their incidence examined. The main findings that emerge from our analysis may be stated as follows: 1 The problem of underemployment is more serious than chronic or full unemploy- ment in rural India. About l / 5t h of the rural labour force was underemployed during 1977-78, 'Severe underemploy- ment ' was least, prevalent and 'marginal underemployment' was most prevalent. 2 The rates of unemployment and under- employment vary from state to state. These rates are highest for Kerala, second highest for Tamil Nadu and relatively very low for states like Assam, Himachal Pradesh and Raiasthan. The NSS 32nd round data for 17 major states shows no significant relationship between person- days unemployment rates and agricultural productivity and also between ' ful l unemployment and underemployment rates 1 and agricultural productivity. The relationship between usual status (chronic) unemployment and agricultural productivity is positive and significant. This only supports the hypothesis that in the absence of unemployment doles peo- ple in agriculturally less developed regions cannot be expected to stay idle for long; they either migrate to the neighbouring developed regions or accept very low paid jobs. 3 The rates of unemployment and under- employment for females are higher than that for males. This shows that the j ob opportunities for females are limited in the rural area. 4 The person-day rate of unemployment is highest among agricultural labour house- holds and lowest among self-employed households. The agricultural labour Not es [The author is grateful to M L Dantwala, V M Dundekar, A Vaidyanathan, T S Papola and S R Hashim for useful comments and sug- gestions on an earlier draft of this paper. The responsibility for the remaining errors lies with the author only.] 1 The old and disabled, rentiers, pensioners, remittance recipients, beggars, prostitutes, students and all those engaged in domestic duties fall in the category of 'not in labour force'. See Sarvekshana, Vol V, Nos 1 and 2, July-October 1981. 2 Since the details of sampling design of the NSS are given in Sarvekshana, Vol V, Nos 1 and 2, July-October 1981, a discussion thereon is avoided here. 3 These degrees of underemployment were first outlined in Krishna [1976] but no empirical estimates were reported perhaps due to the non-availability of data. 4 Some of these factors have been considered in Sundaram and Tendulkar [1988], The question of wage-rate differentials has been discussed in Hashim and Paul [1987]. 5 The state-wise figures of agricultural output per hectare are taken from Central Statistical Organisation [1985]. 6 'Poor' are defined as those whose PCE (per month) is less than the poverty cut-off line of Rs 55.77 per month specified by Planning Commission [Government of India, 1984]. 7 It may be noted that alt these occupation categories of households taken together cover the entire rural population. Definitions of these occupational categories are given in Sarvekshana, Vol V, Nos 1 and 2, July- October, 1981. Ref er ences Government of India, Planning Commission (1970), Report of the Committee of Experts on Unemployment Estimates, (Chairman: M L Dantwala), New Delhi, , (1984), Reports of the Study Group on the Concepts and Estimation of Poverty Line, New Delhi. Central Statistical Organisation (1985), State- wise and Group-wise Estimates of Output from Agriculture, December 1985 (Ministry of Planning). Hashim, S R and Satya Paul (1987), Aspects of Employment and Unemployment in Rural India', Presented at the 'International Workshop on Rural Unemployment' (June 29-July 3, 1987), held at NIRD, Hyderabad (India). Appeared in Rural Unemployment edited by Afro-Asian Rural Reconstruction Organisation, New Delhi, 1988. Krishna, Raj (1976), Rural Unemployment A Survey of Concepts and Estimates for India, World Bank Staff Working Paper No 234, Apri l , Washington. Lakdawala, D T (1977), 'Growth, Unemploy- ment and Poverty', Presidential Address to the Al l India Labour Economic Conference, Tirupati, December 31, 1977. Paul, Satya (1988), 'Unemployment and Underemployment in Rural India 1 presented at the Silver Jubilee Conference of the Indian Econometric Society held in Bangalore, January 4-6, 1988. Sundaram, K and Suresh D Tendulkar (1988), 'Towards an Explanation of Inter-Regional Variations in Poverty and Unemployment in Rural India' in T N Srinivasan and P K Bardhan (eds); Rural Poverty in South Asia, Delhi, Oxford University Press, 1988. Visaria, Pravin (1981), 'Poverty and Unemploy- ment in India: An Analysis of Recent Evidence 1 , World Development, Vol 9, No 3. Economic and Political Weekly July 16, 1988 1483