Climate Gate Emails

From: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" <tatm@xxxxxxxxx.
xxx>
To: [email protected]
Subject: schijatov
Date: Thu, 7 Mar 96 09:41:07 +0500
Dear Keith, March 6, 1996
I and Eugene received your E-mail of 04.03.1996. This day I talked

over the telephone with Eugene and he asked me to send an answer from
both of us.
Thank you for the information concerning proposals to the
INCO/COPERNICUS. We agree with your strategy used and we hope
that this proposal will not be rejected.
The results of INTAS-RFBR proposal will be known at the beginning
of May. We know that they received many proposals and a competition
is high (only 1 in 10 proposals might get money). Of course, you
included in as a participant. Fritz is a coordinator from the INTAS
countries.
This year our laboratory received two small grants (approximately
8,000-10,000 USD per year) from the Russian Foundation of Basic
Researches (RFBR) for the next three years: the first one for
developing the Yamal supra-long chronology and the second one for
developing tree-ring chronologies from living trees growing at the
polar timberline in Siberia (together with Vaganov's laboratory).
These money are very important for us as they will allow to maintain
the staff of our laboratories.
I and Valery Mazepa were in Krasnoyarsk during one month and
together with E.Vaganov wrote the manuscript of book "Dendroclimatic
Studies in the Ural-Siberian Subarctic". The problem now is to find
money for its publication. If we find enough money soon (20 million
roubles), the book will be published this autumn. We analysed 61 mean
ring-width and 6 cell chronologies which we intend to publish in form
of tables in the Appendix. We can send to you all raw measurements
which were used for developing these chronologies.
Of course, we are in need of additional money, especially for
collecting wood samples at high latitudes and in remote regions.
The cost of field works in these areas is increased many times
during the last some years. That is why it is important for us
to get money from additional sources, in particular from the ADVANCE
and INTAS ones. Also, it is important for us if you can transfer
the ADVANCE money on the personal accounts which we gave you earlier
and the sum for one occasion transfer (for example, during one day)
will not be more than 10,000 USD. Only in this case we can avoid
big taxes and use money for our work as much as possible. Please,
inform us what kind of documents and financial reports we must
represent you and your administration for these money.
I and Eugene have a possibility to participate in the Cambridge
meeteng in July, but we need extra many and special invitations.
If you do not have enough money to invite both of us, Eugene does
not insist upon this visit.
The best wishes to you and Phil.
Yours sincerely Stepan Shiyatov

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Emails
From: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" <[email protected]>

Subject: schiyatov
Date: Mon, 17 Jun 96 08:47:18 +0500
Dear Keith,
I have bought the tickets from Moscow to London and back. My arrival
to London (Heathrow Airport) is by flight SU 245 (Aeroflot Company) on
July 19. Departure from Moscow is at 20.10 (local time), arrival to London
is approximately at the same local time. As I know, Evgeny Vaganov did not
bay tickets until now, but he informed of my dates and can bay tickets the
same flights. My depature from London to Moscow is on August 1 by the
Aeroflot Company flight SU 244 at 09.00 of local time.
Please, inform me how can I arrive at Cambridge from London? Is
there the program of this meeting? We must be ready to do some reports?
For example, I can prepare a report about the progress in developing the
Yamal supra-long chronology and together with Evgeny about dendroclimatic
investigation in the Ural-Siberian subarctic.
Rashit Hantemirov and Alexander Surkov will go soon to the Yamal
peninsula (June 24). This summer they want to collect subfossil material
from areas which are much more remote and situated at higher latitudes.
We hoped to use some money of the ADVANCE project. But we have not received
this money until now and the program of collecting during this summer will
be reduced.
Some days ago I received an information that the INTAS-RFBR project
was rejected. The competition was very high.
Sincerely yours Stepan Shiyatov

Emails
From: [email protected]
Subject: URGENT RESPONSE NEEDED - Early Detection Work
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 1996 16:xxx xxxx xxxx(PDT)
Dr. Jones,
I am contacting you on behalf of Dave Bader and Tim Barnett regarding a couple
action items in support of early detection on climate change. Based upon the
anticipated award for NOAA support during fiscal year 1997 on climate change
data and detection, DOE has authorized the Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory (PNNL) to utilize existing funding through 9/30/96 to conduct a
meeting of the experts, and to begin preliminary investigations.
PNNL would like to place a contract with you as soon as possible to provide
support through 9/30/96. In order to place a contract with you, I need to
submit a statement of work and signed cost proposal to our Contracts
Department. If you could please fax this to me as soon as possible on (509)
xxx xxxx xxxx, it would be greatly appreciated.
I thought your activity my look something like the following (feel free to
change/edit):
Scope of Work
Dr. Phillip Jones shall begin initial work in support of the pilot project
identified in the Early Detection of Climate Trends report. He shall prepare
for and participate in a meeting on greenhouse signal detection, to be held in
Washington, DC on September 17-18, 1996. In addition, Dr. Jones shall conduct
a preliminary analysis ?????? (please provide input)
Deliverables
Prepare for and participate in 9/17-18, 1996 meetings on greenhouse signal.
Provide a summary report on the preliminary analysis of ?????? on or

before September 30, 1996.
Also, for your information the current plan for the meeting is for September 17-
18, 1996 at the Courtyard by Marriott - Greenbelt, 6301 Golden Triangle Drive,
Greenbelt, MD. (3xxx xxxx xxxx, fax: (3xxx xxxx xxxx. Government room rate is
$89/day.
When you provide your cost estimate, it would be appreciated if you could
provide your hourly rate, in addition to travel estimates for the September
meeting. To expedite the process, it is very helpful if can include
documentation to support your hourly rate.
Please feel free to contact me with any questions. My phone number is xxx xxxx
xxxx
2861, fax is xxx xxxx xxxx.
Thank you,
Karen

Emails
From: Alan Robock <[email protected]>

To: Phil Jones <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: your mail
Date: Thu, 11 Jul 1996 10:07:xxx xxxx xxxx(EDT)
Dear Phil,
It looks like you have found Baitoushan. Vol. 2 lists Kuwae as VEI 6 in
1452 +/- 10 AD. How accurate are your dates? By the way, Chris Newhall
thinks 1600 is the Parker volcano on Mindanao in the Philippines. He
hasn't published that so far, as I know.
Could you please define "utter prat" for me? Sometimes I think we speak
the same language, and sometimes I'm not so sure.
I'm doing fine. We have a new building with nice new offices. I'm going
to Australia next week with Sherri and Danny, and after the meeting, will
visit Cairns, Adelaide, and New Zealand. I'm looking forward to skiing
on a volcano, if it stops erupting.
Alan
Prof. Alan Robock Phone: (3xxx xxxx xxxx

Department of Meteorology Fax: (3xxx xxxx xxxx
University of Maryland Email: [email protected]
College Park, MD 20xxx xxxx xxxx http://www.meto.umd.edu/~alan
On Thu, 11 Jul 1996, Phil Jones wrote:
> Alan,
> Thanks for the quick response. We'll expect something from Melissa
> in the next few weeks. I also hope our copy of the 2cnd edition arrives
> soon. In our maximum latewood density reconstruction from the polar Urals
> to AD 914, the most anomalous summer is AD 1032. A lot of other volcano
> years are there with summers of -3 to -4 sigma such as 1816,1601,1783 and
> 1453 (I think this later one is Kuwae that is being found in the Ice Cores
> in the Antarctic. However 1032 is 6 sigma and it may be the Baitoushan
> event which you say is 1010 +/- 50 years or the Billy Mitchell event.
>
> I hope all's well with you.
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
> PS Britain seems to have found it's Pat Michaels/Fred Singer/Bob Balling/
> Dick Lindzen. Our population is only 25 % of yours so we only get 1 for
> every 4 you have. His name in case you should come across him is
> Piers Corbyn. He is nowhere near as good as a couple of yours and he's
> an utter prat but he's getting a lot of air time at the moment. For his
> day job he teaches physics and astronomy at a University and he predicts
> the weather from solar phenomena. He bets on his predictions months
> ahead for what will happen in Britain. He now believes he knows all
> there is to know about the global warming issue. He's not all bad as
> he doesn't have much confidence in nuclear-power safety. Always says
> that at the begining of his interviews to show he's not all bad !
>
> Cheers Again
>
> Phil
> Dr Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
> Norwich Email [email protected]
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>

Emails
From: Keith Briffa <[email protected]>

To: Neil Loader
Subject: Cambridge details
Date: Fri Jul 12 14:56:xxx xxxx xxxx
>Date: Fri, 12 Jul 1996 12:05:15 +0100

>To: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" <[email protected]>
>From: Keith Briffa <[email protected]>
>Subject: Cambridge details
>Cc: Neil Loader
>
>At 08:47 17/06/96 +0500, you wrote:
>>Dear Keith,
>> I have bought the tickets from Moscow to London and back. My arrival
>>to London (Heathrow Airport) is by flight SU 245 (Aeroflot Company) on
>>July 19. Departure from Moscow is at 20.10 (local time), arrival to London
>>is approximately at the same local time. As I know, Evgeny Vaganov did not
>>bay tickets until now, but he informed of my dates and can bay tickets the
>>same flights. My depature from London to Moscow is on August 1 by the
>>Aeroflot Company flight SU 244 at 09.00 of local time.
>> Please, inform me how can I arrive at Cambridge from London? Is
>>there the program of this meeting? We must be ready to do some reports?
>>For example, I can prepare a report about the progress in developing the
>>Yamal supra-long chronology and together with Evgeny about dendroclimatic
>>investigation in the Ural-Siberian subarctic.
>> Rashit Hantemirov and Alexander Surkov will go soon to the Yamal
>>peninsula (June 24). This summer they want to collect subfossil material
>>from areas which are much more remote and situated at higher latitudes.
>>We hoped to use some money of the ADVANCE project. But we have not received
>>this money until now and the program of collecting during this summer will
>>be reduced.
>> Some days ago I received an information that the INTAS-RFBR project
>>was rejected. The competition was very high.
>>
>> Sincerely yours Stepan Shiyatov
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
> Dear Stepan ,
> I have sent your message on to Neil Loader who is organising
>the logistics for the Cambridge meeting. By the time you arrive you could
>still get the underground to London and take a train to Cambridge. This will take
about 3 to 4 hours and so you will not arrive until very late. You may
>wish to stay in a hotel near Heathrow - for the night and take a train in
>the morning. It will not be advisable to go into London and search for a
>reasonable hotel at that time . If you go to information at the airport they
>will arrange for a hotel and courrier service to and from the hotel. It is
>best to ask when you arrive. You could also phone me and/or Niel to let us
>know your situation. My home phone number is (01xxx xxxx xxxx). Niel will
>probably give you a contact number in Cambridge. You will need money only for
>your travel and hotel expenses until you get to Cambridge. I will refund this
>and give you additional funds when I arrive on Saturday evening. If you need
>to, you will be able to change money in Heathrow when you arrive.
> Please let me know if any of this is not feasible. Perhaps Neil or
>someone here can book you a hotel room if you decide whether or not to go
>to Cambridge the same night you arrive.
> I will send this message to Neil and he may contact you seperately.
>Let me know your thoughts on this .
> As for the meeting - if you wish to give a presentation on the Urals
>and Taimyr work that would be good. The main reason you are coming is to meet
>everyone and to discuss further work plans - so do not worry about a talk.
> It's up to you. After the meeting I thought you might like to come back
>to my house near Norwich for a day or two or have a holiday in and around
>Cambridge. We can discuss this later. Fritz Schweingruber will not now
>come to Cambridge.
> Thats all for now - I look forward to hearing from you
> best wishes
> Keith
>

Emails
From: John Daly <[email protected]>

Subject: Re: Climatic warming in Tasmania
Date: Fri, 09 Aug 1996 20:04:00 +1100
Cc: Ed Cook <[email protected]>, [email protected],
[email protected], Mike Barbetti <[email protected]>,
[email protected], [email protected]
Dear Neville,
You mentioned to me some time ago that in your view, the 11-year solar cycle
did not influence temperature. There have been numerous attempts by
academics to establish a correlation, but each has been shot down on some
ground or other. I remember Barrie Pittock was especially dismissive of
attempts to correlate solar cycle with temperature.
Have you tried this approach?
Load "Mathematica" into your PC and run the following set of instructions -
data = ReadList[ "c:sydney.txt", Number]

dataElements = Length[data]
X = ListPlot[ data, PlotJoined-> True];
fourierTrans = Fourier[data];
ListPlot[Abs[fourierTrans], PlotJoined -> True];
fitfun1 = Fit[data,{1,x,x^2,x^3,Sin[11 2 Pi x/dataElements],

Cos[11 2 Pi x/dataElements]},x];
fittable = Table[N[fitfun1], {x, dataElements}];
Y = ListPlot[fittable, PlotJoined -> True];
Show[X, Y]
The reference to "c:sydney.txt" is a suggested pathname for the following
set of data - which is Sydney's annual mean temperature.
16.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx
xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx
xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.4
xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.1
xxxx xxxx.4
xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.4
18.6
So Far so good.
"Mathematica" first plots out the data itself (see Atachment 1)
The first part of the instruction set lets "mathematica" do a Fourier Transform
on the data, ie. searching out the periodicities, if there are any. The result is
shown on Attachment 2.
The transform result shows a sharp spike at the 11 year point (I wonder
what is significant about 11 years?). The second part of the instructions
now acts upon this observed spike (the Cos 11 bit), to extract it's
waveform from the rest of the noise. The result is shown as a waveform
in attachment 3, the waves having an 11-year period, with the long-term
Sydney warming easily evident.
Attachment 4 shows the original Sydney data overlaid against the 11-year
periodicity.
It would appear that the solar cycle does indeed affect temperature.
(I tried the same run on the CRU global temperature set. Even though CRU
must be highly smoothed by the time all the averages are worked out, the
11-year pulse is still there, albeit about half the size of Sydneys).
Stay cool.
John Daly http://www.vision.net.au/~daly
Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachSydney.gif

Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachFourier.gif
Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachSolar1.gif
Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachSolar2.gif

Emails
From: Tom Wigley <[email protected]>

Subject: Re: Your help, please?
Date: Mon, 12 Aug 1996 10:07:xxx xxxx xxxx(MDT)
Cc: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected],
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected],
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected],
[email protected], [email protected], "P.D. Jones" <[email protected]>,
[email protected], Tim Barnett <[email protected]>, [email protected],
Ben Santer <[email protected]>, [email protected]
Dear Doug,
In response to Jay Fein's e-mail re den-cen, here are some points (which
may merely echo where you are already).
(1) Why study den-cen? Reason is: improve understanding of climate

system to aid in detection and prediction. You should read Ch. 8
(detection) of IPCC WGI SAR in this regard.
(2) How to study den-cen? Models and observed data are equally
important. Models (coupled O/AGCMs) can only give the internal component
of variability, instrumental and paleodata give internal-plus-external.
(3) How useful are paleodata? I support the continued collection of

such data, but I am disturbed by how some people in the paleo community
try to oversell their product. A specific example is the ice core
isotope record, which correlates very poorly with temperature on the
annual to decadal timescale (and possibly also on the century
timescale)---question, how do we ever demonstrate the usefulness or
otherwise of ice core isotopes on this timescale?
There are other well known proxy data issues that need careful thought...
(a) Sedimentary records---dating. Are 14C-dated records of any value at

all (unless wiggle matched)?
(b) Seasonal specificity---how useful is a proxy record that tells us
about a single season (or only part of the year)?
(c) Climate variance explained by the proxy variable--close to zero for

ice core isotopes, up to 50% for tree rings, somewhere in between for
most other indicators. How valuable are such partially explained records
in helping explain the past?
(d) Signal-to-noise problems---a key issue is, what role has external
forcing had on climate over the past 10,000 years. There is a tendency
to interpret observed changes as evidence of external forcing---usually
unjustifiably. Few workers in the area realize that paleo interpretation
has a detection aspect, just like interpreting the past 100+ years---only
much more difficult. More work is needed on this.
(e) Frequency dependence of explained variance---the classic example

here is tree rings, where it is exceedingly difficult to get out a
credible low frequency (50+ year time scale) message. Work in this area
could reap useful rewards.
(f) Coverage---what about den-cen data from the oceans? We need much
more of this, especially in regions that might provide insights into
mechanisms (like NADW changes).
(4) Causes. Here, ice cores are more valuable (CO2, CH4 and volcanic
aerosol changes). But the main external candidate is solar, and more
work is required to improve the "paleo" solar forcing record and to
understand how the climate system responds both globally and regionally
to solar forcing.
I hope these very hasty ramblings are helpful
Cheers,
Tom
P.S. I've added Ben Santer, Tim Barnett, Ed Cook, Keith Briffa, Malcolm
Hughes, Ray Bradley and Phil Jones to your mailing list.
On Thu, 8 Aug 1996, it was written:
> Dear Colleague:

>
> Doug Martinson is the Chair of the NAS, Climate Research
> Committee's Dec-Cen panel. He and his Panelists are drafting a
> Decadal-Century Climate Variability Science Plan (a US CLIVAR
> contribution). Doug and his Panel are trying to get the broadest
> possible scientific input for this Plan. Doug's approach is one
> that I strongly endorse. In this reagrd he asked me to solicite
> your comments on highest priority science questions and asks also
> for some help regarding examples of published work that would be
> useful for the Plan.
>
> I know you are busy, but urge you to think about this and comment.
> Doug's committee meet in mid-September, so to be of most use to
> him, your comments should be received by the end of August.
>
> Please email to Doug with a cc to me.
>
> Doug Martinson: [email protected]
> Jay Fein: [email protected]
>
> Thanks very much. Jay
>

Emails
From: [email protected] (by way of Tim Osborn <[email protected]>)

Subject: No Subject
Date: Thu, 29 Aug 1996 00:35:39 +0100
From: CPCMB::Fxxx xxxx xxxxJUL-1995 10:53:56.46

To: MX%"[email protected]"
CC: F055
Subj: Re: Hi and questions
Dave
You're right, smoothing the P-E field is a much bigger change than adding
a bit of noise, or the statistical model feedback. But some papers give the
indication that the strong instability/variability of the thermohaline
circulation under traditional mixed boundary conditions cannot possibly
occur when a more realistic SST condition is used. Yet that's not true
of some current models - e.g.:
- some LSG/EBM configurations still oscillate,

- the Manabe & Stouffer 1988 coupled model had two stable states,
- Mikolajewicz and Maier-Reimer 1994 still could collapse NADW even with a
reduced coupling of 16 W/m**2/K (I note your caveat about the lack of scale
dependence though),
- the Stocker et al 1992 zonally averaged coupled model had multiple
equilibria,
- the OPYC/ECHAM2 coupled run (Lunkeit et al) shows what appears to be a
temporary collapse of NADW.
The answer is that the stability depends on the relative buoyancy forcing of
heat and fresh-water, as you've pointed in both you're papers. Freeing up
the SST increases the stabilising (not static stability, but stability of the
model's state) effect of the heat flux - but doesn't GUARANTEE that it will
be stronger than the fresh-water flux effect. To be realistic, the fresh-water
flux used should ideally be the observed flux - I agree that a diagnosed field
hides model errors. Its similar to the flux correction or no flux correction
dilemna of coupled models - do you want a realistic state with unrealistic
processes, or a possibly unrealistic state with realistic processes. Either
way, the response of the model to perturbations cannot be guaranteed to be
realistic. The best current way is to do both. Then, with luck, the real
world will lie between the two answers obtained.
The SALFLU_EBM file is not readable yet, although it is there.
You have some interesting papers on your WWW page - the Marginal Sea model
looks very innovative. Also, the LSG/EBM experiment with the open Panama
Isthmus shows good results. What P-E forcing field did you use for that run,
and what small-scale coupling coefficient?
Cheers,
Tim Tim Osborn, CRU, UEA, UK

Emails

To: [email protected] (Jean-Claude Duplessy)
Subject: Re:
Date: Fri Aug 30 11:27:xxx xxxx xxxx
At 13:52 27/08/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:

>Dear Keith,
>
> I have been asked to write a white paper on the possibility for the
>paleo community to interact with CLIVAR.
>
> Evidently part of the jow has been made during the Venice meeting,
>but I would like to know if you have somme recent recent work of yours that
>I could include in this paper.
>
> Any suggestion woulmd be welcome.
>
>Best regards
>
>jean claude
>
Dear Jean-Claude
It is good news indeed that these initiatives are now meaningfully

underway to join the palaeo , pure climate , and modelling communities.
I will join the short CLIVAR/PAGES meeting (24/25 Oct.) and a colleague -
Tim Osborn will attend the larger meeting from Oct.28-Nov.1. As for question
about new results , Ed Cook and I have a paper in press describing an
initial attempt to reconstruct a North Atlantic Oscillation index back into
the 1700s using tree-ring chronologies in Europe and North America. I will
have a copy sent to you. Otherwise we have a paper soon to come out in an
American book describing our early analyses of the growing Russian data.
This work, developing the density network is progressing well and we have
some very good reconstructions of growing season degree days- excellent
spatial maps over western siberia going back several hundred years.
We recently published a paper in Nature describing a 1000-year summer
temperature reconstruction in the northern Urals and a brief but interesting
paper demonstrating a strong volcanic influence in the tree-ring density
data when they show extreme low density over large areas. We have very
interesting developments from these areas of work but they are only now
being written up.
The usefull thing to stress is that these researches are in progress
and the development of the tree-ring network is continuing well and is already
providing patterns of past climate variability in northern Europe/Russia
and at a number of special locations- nortern Sweden/Finland, Yamal, and
Taimyr we have already got continuous 2000-year chronologies and have the
potential (indeed we already are) to build xxx xxxx xxxxyear series at ech
location.
I will send you some reprints/preprints and an overhead that shows
the present state of the northern chronology network. Any stress on the
importance of future collaboration btween us and the Russians would be wellcome.
I have just heard that a proposal I submitted to Copernicus to do just this
was to my amazement ruled not relevant to the programme!
I look forward to seeing you in October. Very best wishes. Needless to say, if I
can offer any help with drafting the white paper or similar
I am happy to oblige.
cheers
Keith

Emails

To: Gary Funkhouser <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: russian data
Date: Tue Sep 17 16:42:xxx xxxx xxxx
Gary,
it's great to hear from you. The stuff you are doing is very interesting
to say the least. From the details you give the precip. stuff looks the more
relevant for the Holocene though I note that you don't have a manuscript
yet. The other stuff is of course interesting but I would have to see it
and the board would want the larger implications of the stats clearly
phrased in general and widely understandable ( by the ignorant masses) terms
before they would consider it not too specialised. I suspect that this
might not be straight forward. Are you not being (in the time honoured Don
Graybill fashion) too demanding of the response function results when you
say deriving a transfer function is not justified? We all strive for
perfection but does it exist? Seriously , it would be easier as regards
publication policy to get the Editor to accept a reconstruction/reconstruction
based paper than one describing chronology inferences.
I don't know whether this is any use but I hope you'll send us something.
I also hope life going O.K. for you these days. I can't see me getting to
Tucson for some considerable time and I don't suppose you have any plans
for cruising this way so I'll see you when I see you.
keep in touch and let me know what you you decide.
the best to you
Keith
At 16:44 11/09/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:

>Keith,
>How's it going?
>
>I've been working on some of the data that Don collected with
>Shiyatov, Mazepa and Vaganov in the late 80's and I was wondering
>if you thought any of it might be appropriate for The Holocene - or
>if you have any ideas about where we could go with it.
>
>I already have a fair draft dealing with the Kyrgyzstan juniper
>chronologies. Although I wasn't able to get any climatic
>reconstructions out of it, the material has some interesting
>properties similar to some of our long-lived trees in the southwest
>US. For example, autocorrelation in the series increases as a direct
>function of stand elevation, there is a shift from high to low
>frequency variation with increasing elevation, and the
>intercorrelation among the highest elevation stands is greater
>than that for the lower stands.
>
>Maybe this means that the lower altitude sites are responding
>to more local conditions (precipitation), while the higher stands
>are responding to a more regional (temperature) signal. Response
>function analyses with the indices may suggest this, but again,
>it's not strong enough to justify developing a transfer function.
>
>The draft is about 2500 words plus figures and tables. Stepan hasn't
>seen it yet, but I can't imagine that he will change it very much -
>I know that Valeri didn't find any great climate responses either.
>
>There are also 12 chronologies from central and southern Siberia, some
>which are pretty close to Jacoby's Mongolian sites. I was able to
>build 3 precipitation reconstructions - one has about 50% explained
>variance for a May - June season. I haven't composed a draft yet and
>although Gordon's dealing with temperature, a couple of the
>chronologies are of comparable length and I want to look at our
>low frequency variation relative to his.
>
>Jeff Dean and I are headed to the White Mountains this Friday for
>a little 5-day collection trip. Thanks for your time, Keith.
>
>Cheers, Gary
>Gary Funkhouser
>Lab. of Tree-Ring Research
>The University of Arizona
>Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA
>phone: (5xxx xxxx xxxx
>fax: (5xxx xxxx xxxx
>e-mail: [email protected]
>

Emails

To: Mike Salmon <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: shiyatov
Date: Tue Sep 17 17:38:xxx xxxx xxxx
Dear Stepan
I have received the receipts. Thankyou.
Unfortunately I have also heard that our request to COPERNICUS was not
successfull. I am very disappointed about this. The letter I recieved
said that the proposal " was not considered relevant" so you can imagine
that I am seriously exploring what this is all about. I have just returned
from a PEP3 meeting in Paris . I tried to emphasise how important the Russian
work is and , of course , our collaboration. I am relly angry that our proposal
was not considered by referees - just rejected by the committee.
Thanks for the piece for the Web page - It is already on. It is now
more important than ever that we publish some papers over the next few months
on the different aspects of the network reconstructions and the long series.
Have you considered my suggestion to think about a long,detailed paper on
the Yamal work for submission to The Holocene? I am happy to help as much
as possible with such an effort. I am glad you are safely home and I send
my best wishes to you all.
Keith

Emails
From: Gary Funkhouser <[email protected]>

Subject: kyrgyzstan and siberian data
Date: Thu, 19 Sep 1996 15:37:xxx xxxx xxxx
Keith,
Thanks for your consideration. Once I get a draft of the central

and southern siberian data and talk to Stepan and Eugene I'll send
it to you.
I really wish I could be more positive about the Kyrgyzstan material,

but I swear I pulled every trick out of my sleeve trying to milk
something out of that. It was pretty funny though - I told Malcolm
what you said about my possibly being too Graybill-like in evaluating
the response functions - he laughed and said that's what he thought
at first also. The data's tempting but there's too much variation
even within stands. I don't think it'd be productive to try and juggle
the chronology statistics any more than I already have - they just
are what they are (that does sound Graybillian). I think I'll have
to look for an option where I can let this little story go as it is.
Not having seen the sites I can only speculate, but I'd be
optimistic if someone could get back there and spend more time
collecting samples, particularly at the upper elevations.
Yeah, I doubt I'll be over your way anytime soon. Too bad, I'd like
to get together with you and Ed for a beer or two. Probably
someday though.
Cheers, Gary
Gary Funkhouser
Lab. of Tree-Ring Research
The University of Arizona
Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA
phone: (5xxx xxxx xxxx
fax: (5xxx xxxx xxxx
e-mail: [email protected]

Emails

Subject: Rashit
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 96 13:24:01 +0500
Dear Keith,
enclosed are data concerning Yamal chronology.
1 - list of samples: 139 subfossil samples (checked only),
covered time span from about 350 BC and 18 samples from living
trees (jah- from Yada river, m- and x- Hadyta river, por- from
Portsa river);
2 - general chronology (1248 BC - 1994 AD). I have some little
doubt about 360 BC - may be it is false. It was found that
in chronology I sent you before 155 BC was false ring;
3 - ring widths of living trees from Yada and Hadyta;
4 - ring widths of living trees from Portsa. Some of them didn't
include in chronology, because were not measured at that time;
5 - ring widths of subfossil trees. Zero means that ring didn't
find on sample.
I don't send description of collection sites, deposits and etc.
for the present. Some details you can find in our article
(Shiyatov,...., Loosli). By the way, do you know something about
its fate?
Please, inform me if you have any questions about these data.
Sincerely yours,
Rashit Hantemirov
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Emails
From: Fred Pearce <[email protected]>

To: keith briffa <[email protected]>
Subject: new sciwentist feature
Date: 13 Oct 96 10:32:49 EDT
Keith,
This is my first draft of the dendrochronology feature. I wonder if you have time
to go through look. I hope you recognise the quotes, but please makes changes if
they think they misrepresent you. And if you can answer any of the questions in
square brackets that would be most useful.
Ideally, can you not change the full text but make notes, remarks, answers
referring to it.
As ever, haste is of the essence.
Regards
--Fred Pearce
It was one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past xxx xxxx xxxxyears. Mount
Changbai [correct?] in China blasted 50 cubic kilometres of rock into the air and
deluged much of the far east with hot pumice. Radiocarbon dated the explosion at
early in the 11th century. But it took Keith Briffa, sitting in his office in
Norwich and juggling data from tree rings round the world, to pinpoint the precise
year: 1032.
Volcanoes scatter the atmosphere with dust that deflects sunlight and cools the
world beneath for a year or more. And when the world cools, trees grow less. That
year's growth rings are smaller and less dense.
By analysing those rings, Briffa and his colleagues at the Climatic Research Unit
in the University of East Anglia have charted these sudden and dramatic shocks to
the climate system, from Changbai to Pinatubo in 1991. Larches in the forests of
the northern Urals, for instance, have revealed that 1032 was the coldest summer
there in a thousand years, more than 6 degrees cooler than the long-term average.
Four of the five coldest summers in Europe and North America during the past four
centuries (1601, 1641, 1669, and 1912) coincided with known major volcanic events.
"We are pretty certain the fifth one, in 1699, did too," says Briffa. "But the
geologists haven't found the volcano yet."
It is clever work. But the science of tree-ring analysis, dendrochronology, is
more than just a party piece for botanists. Every ring in every tree round the
world contains a memory of the climate the year it was formed. Reading these rings
holds the potential, Briffa believes, to answer one of the most vital questions of
our time: has human activity started to warm the planet?
With colleagues in laboratories and field stations from Dublin to eastern Siberia,
he has within the past year [correct?] begun an attempt to construct a history,
year by year, of temperatures across northern Europe and Asia over the past xxx
xxxx xxxxyears, right back to the waning of the last ice age. The tam, funded by
the European Union, hope to help show whether the warming seen across the planet
in the past century, and especially since around 1980, is within the limits of
normal natural variability, or the start of man-made global warming.
For climatologists, the search for an irrefutable "sign" of anthropogenic warming

has assumed an almost Biblical intensity. The leading figures of the UN's
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), claim that, in all probability,
they have seen it. Last summer [ed: 1996], the IPCC's scientific working group,
chaired by former UK Meteorological Office boss Sir John Houghton, concluded that
"the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global
climate". But it is like the "balance of evidence" suggesting BSE causes CJD. The
judgment is far from "beyond reasonable doubt". The case remains "not proven".
Many researchers most intimately involved in the search are still far from sure
how the probabilities balance. And some of the sharpest concerns are coming from
the places where the original early warnings of global warming emerged in the mid-
1980s. Places such as Briffa's base at the Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, and
the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California.
Few investigators doubt that the world has warmed recently. Nor that the enhanced
"greenhouse effect" of pollution from gases such as carbon dioxide, will warm the
planet. But in the past five years, climate researchers have growing increasingly
aware of how little they really know about the natural variability from which they
must pick out the "signal" of human influence.
One prominent IPCC researcher concerned about this gap in knowledge is Simon Tett
from the Hadley Centre for climate modelling at the Meteorological Office, home to
one of the world's five leading global circulation models, capable of recreating a
mathematical version of how the atmosphere works and of running simulations of
climatic changes over decades or even centuries. He says that "in the past, our
estimates of natural variability have been based on climate models." But this
autumn [date?], he says, those estimates have been thrown into turmoil by a paper
published in the journal The Holocene. In it, Tim Barnett of the Scripps
Institution of Oceanography, part of the University of California at San Diego,
compared model estimates of natural temperature fluctuations over the past 400
years with the best evidence from the real world -- from instruments in the past
century and "proxy data", such as Briffa's tree rings, from before that.
The result was bad news for the modellers. The two models examined -- one German,
the other American -- generated a natural variability of around 0.1 degree C per
century. This was less than half that revealed in the proxy data. "Of course we
don't have to believe the proxy data. They certainly have problems attached to
them. But my belief is that they both models, and proxy data too, underestimate
real variability," says Barnett
The models' error was not, perhaps, too surprising. As Barnett points out, they do
not include vital "forcing" mechanisms that alter temperature, such as solar
cycles and volcanic eruptions. Nor can they yet mimic the strength of the largest
year-on-year variability in the natural system, the El Nino oscillation in the
Pacific Ocean, which has a global impact on climate.
Nonetheless, the findings should serve as a warning, Barnett says, that "the
current models cannot be used in rigorous tests for anthropogenic signals in the
real world". If they are they "might lead us to believe that an anthropogenic
signal had been found when, in fact, that may not be the case."
Barnett knows how easily this can happen. He was a lead author for a critical
chapter in the last IPCC scientific assessment, which investigated "the detection
of climate change and attribution of causes". It formulated the IPCC case that the
evidence points towards a human influence on climate, but it warned repeatedly
that great uncertainties remained. "We wrote a long list of caveats in that
chapter," says Barnett. "We got a lot of static from within IPCC, from people who
wanted to water down and delete some of those caveats. We had to work very hard to
keep them all in." Even so, when the findings were first leaked to the New York
Times, it was under the headline "Scientists finally confirm human role in global
warming".
Suggestive though the evidence may be, Barnett and his co-authors insist that the
uncertainties, especially concerning natural variability, have to be answered. And
so, suddenly, the modellers are queuing at Briffa's door to find out what his
tree-ring data shows about the real world beyond the computer simulations. "Five
years ago, climate modellers wanted nothing to do with the palaeo community," says
Briffa with a grin. "But now they realise that they need our data. We can help
them to define natural variability." He has already collaborated with Barnett.
Tett paid his first visit to the dendrochronology lab in November [1996].
And so to the forests of Europe and Asia where, over the next [how many?] years
Briffa will coordinate the work of colleagues in a dozen countries who hope to
dramatically increase the available proxy data on past climate change. Much of the
best data so far has come from the forests round Lake Tornetrask, on the northern
border of Sweden, deep inside the Arctic Circle. This is near the northern limit
for Scots pine, a place where their growth rate of the trees can be massively
altered by small perturbations in summer temperatures. The result is dramatic
differences in the thickness and density of tree rings.
The head of this work is Professor W [full first name?] Karlen [ed: acute on e], a
geographer at the University of Stockholm, who over many years has taken cores
from living trees and from logs and stumps hauled from old peat bogs. Despite the
harsh climate, there are living trees here up to 600 years old. And the chronology
can be extended ever further by analysing the dead trees. So far the climate
reconstruction is complete for more than 1400 years before the present; the aim
now is to extent it up to 8000 years.
The best data, says Briffa, comes from analysing both ring width and the maximum
density of wood in each ring. By firing X-rays through the wood, researchers can
now analyse the density of rings as little as 30 microns across -- the equivalent
of a tree's girth growing by a centimetre every century. The growth of cell walls
late in the growing season creates the densest wood and, says Briffa, "appears to
depend directly on the average mean temperature".
Even so, ring growth is a product of many factors, including the genetics of the
tree, past climate, the age of the tree and soil moisture. The relationships
between ring growth and summer temperature are not a precise. But comparisons
between the recent rings and known climatic data show that the rings can capture
at least half of the summer temperature variability.
The temperature graphs produced at Tornetrask show "pronounced variability on all
timescales, from year-on-year variations right up to century-on-century," says
Briffa. On the longer timescales, for instance, they show 20 major cooling periods
during the past two millenia, including long spells between 500 and 850, between
1100 and 1350 and between 1580 and 1750, the little ice age. There were also long
warm spells between 900 and 1100, known as the medieval warm period, and 1360 to
1560. [ed: show graph from NERC paper].
Further back, early results suggest a strong warm era from 4000 to 3300 BC, and a
cool period ending around 5070 BC. But there are intriguing gaps, for which no
tree rings can be found. These, says Briffa, "suggest some major calamity that
destroyed trees. Volcanoes, perhaps, or a rapid rise in the water tables." A 19-
year gap between 1130 and 1111 BC, for instance, coincides with volcanic ash
showing up in Greenland ice.
"What all this means," says Briffa, "is that the old image of the xxx xxxx
xxxxyears since the end of the last ice age -- the Holocene era -- as climatically
tranquil looks increasingly inaccurate." Hence the intense interest in the EU
project, which will attempt to reconstruct those xxx xxxx xxxxyears of climate
right across northern Europe and Asia, from Ireland to the Sea of Okhotsk, from
the borders of Mongolia to shores of the Arctic Ocean.
During the past summer, helicopters flying low over the tundra have spotted logs
in hundreds of small lakes in the Tornetrask region of northern Sweden. Karlen has
donned his diving suit to help remove samples of timber from the freezing waters
[did he?]. In northern Finland, local diving clubs picked some 3000 samples from
lakes.
In the Arctic wastes of northern Siberia, a major survey is being conducted on the
Taimyr peninsula, the largest stretch of frozen tundra in Eurasia and far north of
today's tree line. There are well-preserved logs buried in river sediments here
that grew between 5000 and 8000 years ago. On the Yamal Peninsula, just east of
the Ural mountains on the shores of the Arctic Ocean, wood dug from the permafrost
grew in conditions so cold that some summers temperatures never exceeded the
threshold for growth of about 5 degrees C, so no growth rings formed. Nonetheless
Yamal is the only site so far found that yields tree rings right through a gap at
300 BC. "Interestingly, the Yamal rings show this to have been the coldest period
in the entire run," says Briffa.
Other, less detailed, surveys are being carried out across the whole of the north
of the two continents. And this winter the timber is being analysed at
laboratories in Copenhagen and Birmensdorf -- the Swiss home of Fritz
Schweingruber, one of the world's top tree-ring analysts. The project will also
carry out new analysis on the large numbers of samples of ancient oak already
stored in laboratories in Ireland, Britain, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and
Sweden. The oak has been dragged from bogs and river beds, or liberated from
archaeological sites and even the beams of old houses over the past 30 years.
"There is a massive amount of data on existing European oak rings. But much of it
was done in the 1970s, and then not updated," says Briffa. One of Britain's
biggest collections, at Sotterley Park near Lowestoft in Suffolk [Keith: who runs
this?], has ring data going back to 1580. "But it stops in the 1980s, missing the
recent major droughts. We have got to update that information."
Already, the first long data sets are starting to emerge from Siberia. Last summer
[ed: 13 July 1995], Briffa, Schweingruber and Stepan Shiyatov of the Institute of
Plant and Animal Ecology at Ekaterunburg in the Russian Urals published a paper on
"unusual 20th-century summer warmth in a 1000-year temperature record from
Siberia". A complete tree-ring chronology from AD 914, pieced together from
larches on the Yamal peninsula, suggested that average summer temperatures since
1901 have been higher than for any similar length of time during the chronology.
It estimated that from 1600, the depth of the little ice age, to the present day
there has been a 1.14 degrees C warming. The first eight decades of the 20th
century were 0.13 degrees C warmer than the next warmest period, nine centuries
before in1202-91.
The chronology also showed that Europe's "little ice age" extended east of the
Urals, but that the medieval warm period did not. But these long trends disguise
sharp short-term anomalies. The 11th century seems to have been a particularly
turbulent time in the Urals. 1032, the year of the Changbai eruption, yielded the
coldest summer in a thousand years. But the following year was the second warmest
of the millenium, at 2.11 degrees above the mean.
Tree rings are not the only source of proxy temperature data. Layers of ice laid
down annually in permanent ice sheets, such as those in Greenland and Antarctica,
carry a temperature record in the isotopic composition of the ice. Corals also
have a temperature imprint, and even sediments on continental shelves can be mined
for climate information. The most work, so far, has been done on ice sheets.
American and European researchers in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP), for
instance, have drilled for 3 kilometres into the ice pack, going back more than
xxx xxxx xxxxyears. Besides plotting the course of the last ice age, they have
found evidence of constant climate shifts during the past xxx xxxx xxxxyears.
Briffa says tree rings and ice cores "complement each other, focusing best at
different timescales." Tree rings show annual and decade-to-decade variations very
clearly. But they do not go back so far, and are not so good at spotting change
from millenium to millenium. Ring analysis seems to smooth out long-term trends,
probably because trees slowly adapt to these changes, disguising them." On the
other hand, ice-core data shows up long-term trends very clearly, but is poor at
showing single-year changes. The melting and refreezing of ice in the surface of
ice packs means that the ice from individual years tends to mingle together.
The patterns of temperature change revealed by these different methods will

probably always remain too fragmented to reveal unambiguous trends in global
average temperatures. But this may not matter. "Frankly, global averages are not
central to the issue of attributing climate change," says Barnett. "What will
ultimately prove whether or not we are altering the climate will be the patterns
of temperature change -- geographical patterns, seasonal patterns and vertical
patterns." It is not how much it warms, but where, that will be vital.
Under the IPCC umbrella, Barnett and Phil Jones of the CRU have formed a small
"detections group", to look for these tell-tale patterns. "We are systematically
looking at the patterns, past and present, of all the main forcings on climate,"
Barnett says. They will investigate how the world's climate systems respond to
volcanoes, to changes in the ocean circulation, to solar cycles and so on. "Then
we will compare those patterns with what we are seeing today. What we hope is that
the current patterns of temperature change prove distinctive, quite different from
the patterns of natural variability in the past." And if that turns out to be the
case, he says, "we will be able to close down this issue of attribution, perhaps
within three to five years."
Here, the climate models will again come into play. If current climate change also
accords with what the models predict from global warming, then the "hand of man"
will indeed look to be on the planet's thermostat.
The models all suggest that anthropogenic global warming will show a very
distinctive pattern. For instance, they predict that anthropogenic warming will be
greatest in the northern latitudes of the great continental land masses, such as
Eurasia. And that makes the finding of Briffa's team that summer temperatures in
northern Siberia are higher than for a millenium potentially extremely important.
And the prospect of further data from this region to confirm that finding so
intriguing.
Briffa grins at the prospect. "The trend seems to be accelerating. We are getting
reports back from Stepan, our man in the Urals, that it was warmer this spring on
the Yamal peninsula there than ever before, and tree growth has been absolutely
fantastic. It is a major warming, like nothing seen there for a thousand years --
and it is what the climate models predict." Caution prevails, but the elusive
pattern of man-made global warming may just be emerging amid the larch groves on
the sunny hills of northern Siberia.
ends

Emails

Subject: the Yamal data
Date: Wed Oct 30 17:45:xxx xxxx xxxx
Dear Rashit,
As always I seem to have been away bullshiting and politiking in
various meetings for weeks! I try to convince myself that this is of use to us as
a dendrochronological community but I am not so sure how much that is really
true these days. I have the data you sent and I had to get someone here to
decode it for me . That is fine now so I would like to try and reformat and RCS it
. I will be back in touch soon. Your paper is in review for Denrochronologia.
I am very keen to get a much more detailed paper in The Holocene dealing with
this stuff and I hope you and Stepan will consider this - perhaps for some time in
spring next year. Sorry I wasn't in touch sooner. Please give my regards
to Stepan and Valerie.
very best wishes
Keith

Emails

Subject: the Yamal data
Date: Thu Oct 31 12:01:xxx xxxx xxxx
Dear Rashit,
In looking at the data I now see that you have only sent data from abot 350bc
onwards. What is the situation with the earlier data. I am very interested in the
details of the 1st millennium B.C. and especially this period from about
500 to 100 B.C. We still have a gap in the Tornetrask data at about 350 B.C.
I was of the opinion that this period was very low growth in the chronology of
yours shown by Stepan in Cambridge - but it does not seem so low in the
chronology he gave me. What are your thoughts on this and is it possible to get
the earlier data when you are happy with them?Thanks very best wishes
Keith

Emails

To: Eugene Vaganov <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: message from Vaganov
Date: Tue Nov 12 17:36:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: [email protected]
Eugene
I have not received my copy of the book. A message to Malcolm is
the best idea. I have been experimenting with the Yamal data mostly trying
to fit RCS curves - and am finding problems with recent local chronologies
behaving oddly - i.e. too much growth in recent years makes it difficult to
derive a valid age/growth curve. I have produced a rcs standardised curve
for taimyr and will fax a copy to you. I will send comments to you and stepan
on the two papers reviewed for dendrocronologia on the development of the yamal
and taimyr chronologies. I have made major changes to the tracheid paper and need
to type and send the new version to you - also there are problems understanding
some bits - I will ask specific questions. How goes the organisation of the
Krasnoyarsk meeting?
Stepan /Rashit I have had some comments on the Yamal paper that I will try to
email tommorow.
best wishes
Keith
At 13:41 12/11/96 +0000, you wrote:

>Dear Keith
> How are you? Did you receive the material
>(chronologies on Siberian subarctic) from
>Stepan? Several days later I'll send to you
>some additional data (several samples) on
>Taymir supra-long chronology, which make
>more deep in sampling the interval around
>xxx xxxx xxxxyear.
> There are a few questions to you.
>1. The volume of "Radiocarbon" with proccedings
> reach Krasnoyarsk with some months delay, so
> can you send me by fax (007)(3912xxx xxxx xxxx
> the content of volume (only for references)?
>2. What about the draft of paper which I gave
> you in Germany (paper concerning the compa-
> rison of tracheid dimension, cell wall thickness
> and density)?
>Best wishes,Gene.
>

Emails
To: [email protected], [email protected]
Subject: 1996 global temperatures
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 11:23 +0000 (GMT)
Cc: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Phil
Remember all the fun we had last year over 1995 global temperatures,
with early release of information (via Oz), "inventing" the December
monthly value, letters to Nature etc etc?
I think we should have a cunning plan about what to do this year,

simply to avoid a lot of wasted time.
I have been discussing with David P and suggest the following:
1. By 20 Dec we will have land and sea data up to Nov
2. David (?) computes the December land anomaly based on 500hPa

heights up to 20 Dec.
3. We assume that Dec SST anomaly is the same as Nov
4. We can therefore give a good estimate of 1996 global temps by 20

Dec
5. We feed this selectively to Nick Nuttall (who has had this in the
past and seems now to expect special treatment) so that he can write
an article for the silly season. We could also give this to Neville
Nicholls??
6. We explain that data is provisional and how the data has been
created so early (ie the estimate for Dec) and also
7. We explain why the globe is 0.23k (or whatever the final figure is)
cooler than 95 (NAO reversal, slight La Nina). Also that global annual
avg is only accuirate to a few hundredths of a degree (we said this
last year - can we be more exact, eg PS/MS 0.05K or is this to big??)
8. FROM NOW ON WE ANSWER NO MORE ENQUIRIES ABOUT 1996 GLOBAL TEMPS BUT
EXPLAIN THAT IT WILL BE RELEASED IN JANUARY.
9. We relesae the final estimate on 20 Jan, with a joint UEA/MetO

press release. It may not evoke any interest by then.
10. For questions after the release to Nuttall, (I late Dec, early
Jan) we give the same answer as we gave him.
Are you happy with this, or can you suggest something better (ie
simpler)? I know it sound a bit cloak-and-dagger but its just meant to
save time in the long run.
Im copying this to DEP and CKF also for comments.
Cheers
Geoff

Emails
From: Wolfgang Cramer <[email protected]>
To: Mike Hulme <[email protected]>, [email protected] (I. Colin Prentice)
Subject: Re: EU proposals
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 15:51:36 +0100
Hm, clearly coordination between the two (if it really ends up as two)
groups is absolutely essential, otherwise we would look entirely
stupid. The first thing that comes to my mind is that nitrogen would be
emphasizing a component of our overall idea which otherwise would not
receive great attention - hence it could be, perhaps, amalgamated. They
probably see it the other way around: In their problem, climatic
variability comes second in importance. My view on this is that all of
our model intercomparisons have shown that models essentially do crazy
things with interannual variability, simply because nobody ever has
tested them for that in any detail. Esser's model would probably be the
last candidate to use here, since it is "less mechanistic" than any of
the others - in fact, Colin and I seemed to agree to "not necessarily"
include it into this proposal. These are just some thoughts for the
moment.
I just finished a very first, rough draft of our outline, and I attach
it to the end of this message. I have just sent it to Martin Heimann,
but I have still not yet talked to him. I also send this whole thing to
Colin, hoping that he will catch the thread through it without
problems. Gerard Dedieu is the one I want to approach next - Alberte is
already talking to him about this in the context with other things.
Cheers,
Wolfgang
On Nov 22, 14:12, Mike Hulme wrote:

> Subject: EU proposals
> Wolfgang,
>
> This email (see below) has just arrived from Andrew Friend. I wonder
if we
> are in danger of competing amongst ourselves here, or is the role of
N
> sufficiently far away to avoid problems? Do you want me to talk with
Andrew
> again or shall I wait for you to get back to me next week after
contacting
> Martin? Would Gerd Esser be one of 'our' C modellers?
>
> Looking at the call for proposals it seems that 'Theme 1.1.1 Basic
processes
> in the climate system' fits best for us since there is a specific
item (5)
> which states: 'studies of global budgets of greenhouse gases with
> particular emphasis on fluxes, transformations and stroage in the
biosphere,
> lithosphere and oceans.'
>
> If not here, then maybe under '1.1.3 Climate variability, simulation
of
> climate and prediction of climate change' since there is an item (4)
> 'Development, validation and application of models for important
> climate-related quantities such as mean sea-levels, storm and surge
climates
> and carbon cycling.' But here there is an emphasis on European
approaches.
>
> About EU politics, Balabanis is the guy for ESCOBA, but that doesn't
mean he
> is necessarily the one for us. Troen handles a lot of the climate
projects
> in 1.1.1, 1.1.2 and 1.1.3. We have quite a bit to do with him. But
it
> depends if there is someone else on carbon etc. Maybe Balabanis is
the
> place to start.
>
> Regards,
>
> Mike
>
> **********************
>
> Dear Mike
>
> Thank you very much for your hospitality the other day. I enjoyed my
visit and
> look forward to continued collaboration. With regard to ESCOBA, this
project is
> in domain 1.1 of the Environment and Climate Programme, and is thus
the
> responsibility of Balabanis.
>
> Has there been any progress with regard to a new proposal? I have
contacted
> Gerard Dedieu, and he says that he will have to think about the idea
some more.
> Meanwhile, I have received an invitation from Gerd Esser (another
ESCOBA
> partner) to put together a new proposal to look at 'The role of
nitrogen in the
> carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere' for submission in
January. A
> couple of the other ESCOBA partners have expressed interest in this
proposal.
> Part of the new project will be to use global process-based carbon
models, such
> as our Hybrid model, to assess the biospheric sink for C (and its
geographical
> distribution) over the period 1750 to 1990. I guess there could be a
role for
> an improved climatology here.
>
> I could investigate further the current intention with regard to
climatology in
> this project if you wish.
>
> Andrew
>
>-- End of excerpt from Mike Hulme
Global, spatially explicit assessment of the interannual

variability in terrestrial carbon storage
VERY FIRST, INCOMPLETE draft for a new research proposal

to be submitted to the European Union
for the second phase of the Third Framework "Environment and
Climate"
Goal
A critical uncertainty in assessments of global change impacts

and feedbacks is the source/sink relationship for carbon
between atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere, and
particularly its interannual variability. Recent advances in
modelling of atmospheric and biospheric processes, combined
with significant progress in data gathering for climate, CO2
and O2, now allow for a dedicated experiment that is likely to
reduce this uncertainty. Equilibrium approaches to the
simulation of global carbon fluxes are no longer adequate for
this, since empirical studies are showing both a long-term
trend and a significant interannual variability of CO2 fluxes,
which appear to be most strongly driven by climatic impacts on
terrestrial vegetation.
Experimental design
For a time period of several decades, we propose to perform a

simulation of biospheric carbon fluxes using:

Emails

Subject: from Rashit
Date: Mon, 9 Dec 96 14:19:37 +0500
Dear Keith,
we received your letters concerning our paper for Dendrochronologia
and three long chronologies.
1. As regards individual ring width data of living trees from
Yamal we would remind you that you have them. Stepan gave to you
in England one diskette. There are data for Larix sibirica from
three sites (KHA - from Khadyta river, 67812'N 69850'E; JAH -
from Yahody river 67807'N 69854'E and POR - from Portsa river
67827'N 71800'E) and for Picea obovata from two points (SCH -
Shtshutshya river 66849'N 69850'E and KHD - from Khadyta river
67807'N 69854'E).
2. We would be very gratefull if you can do some corrections and
additions in the paper for Dendrochronologia. We did not quite
understand what we have to do on missing rings? Just enumerate
years when missing rings occur? If so, these are following years:
Year absent % ind % Year absent % ind %

-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 31
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 34
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxliving
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 16
6%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 16 6%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 20
5%
73%
64%
55%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 66
l i v i n g
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 38
We have to note that frequency of missing rings on increment

cores of living trees higher, because on samples of subfossil
trees we try to find this kind of rings on whole disc.
Some periods are notable for missing rings: xxx xxxx xxxxBC, 882 BC,
143 AD, xxx xxxx xxxxAD (especially 640 AD), xxx xxxx xxxxAD, 1453 AD
and beginning of 1800th AD.
3. Stepan ask what about book by Bailey?
Best wishes,
Rashit

Emails

Subject: the paper
Date: Mon Dec 9 15:17:xxx xxxx xxxx
Dear Rashit and Stepan

Thanks for the message and the missing data info. I will
make some additions and include a plot/list of these missing years. I assume
you don't mind me including your plot of the recent Yamal curve and statistics
about crossdating with Polar Urals. I'll send ammended paper as soon as possible.
Thanks for the quick reply. Do you have a working fax?
best wishes to you all
Keith

Emails
From: Tim Carter <[email protected]>

To: [email protected] (David Viner - Climate Impacts LINK Project)
Subject: ECLAT 2
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 1996 11:11:18 +0200
Dear David/Mike,
Thanks for sending me the ECLAT 2 proposal. First, let me say that I support
the idea of a continued role for activities co-ordinating and facilitating
the provision of climate change information for EC impacts research and
other related research and policy. ECLAT 2 is one way of achieving this, but
the fact that it is a Concerted Action Initiative imposes some limitations.
The major limitation is that CAIs are not supposed to involve original
research. They are networking activities, with a view on forging research
links and developing new research projects. In my view, there is a need for
a number of targetted research activities on scenario development, that
might be covered by the themes of the workshops you are suggesting in ECLAT
2, but which would be best served by some dedicated research projects. It
really isn't satisfactory to wait until the end of ECLAT 2 before embarking
on research. Many of the key topics are already known, and although research
may be proceeding in some of these areas (especially in downscaling
techniques, scenario development techniques, etc.), what is still lacking is
co-ordination across Europe in the selection and application of climate
change scenarios in impact assessment. In my view, there are two areas in
sore need of targetted research:
(1) A project to analyse all available information from GCMs and historical
data, which will provide some uncertainty bounds on the anticipated future
climate in Europe (by region) for use in policy as well as in impacts
assessment. Such a project should involve GCM groups (interpreting the GCM
outputs), scenario developers (who can apply methods of generalising across
a lot of GCM predictions and emissions scenarios, etc.), and a few impact
analysts, who can advise on suitable scenarios for use in a variety of
applications (entry level or basic scenarios).
(2) A project to develop guidelines for impact analysts on the application

of climate change (and related) scenarios in European impact assessments.
This work would need to be linked closely to any co-ordinated, entry-level
scenarios selected for use in EC projects.
However, unless you have a project proposal in the pipeline at CRU (?) I
don't think there is now time to develop a new proposal to meet the 15
January deadline.
Comments on the draft document:
1. It is unclear to me how Figure 1 relates to the text. The arrows are not
well differentiated in the fax version I have, and the boxes are not explained.
2. Similarly, Figure 2 is also misleading. It implies that there is a large

transfer of information from the CC modelling community to the CC impacts
community, but surely the whole function of the ECLAT SE would be to act as
a filter in this transfer. Note that the title of the figure should be revised.
3. PLEASE REMOVE the reference to ECLAIR - there is no such name! This was a
light- hearted emailed suggestion for ECLAT 2, not for Martin's CA which
doesn't have a name to my knowledge.
4. In the suggested steering committee, I would strengthen the
representation of the impacts community. This could be done by time horizon:
e.g. one hydrologist to cover a range of time periods from sub-daily to
century scale; one forester or soils expert for the long term, one
agriculture person for the medium term (maybe I could represent this
community), desertification/erosion/fire risk person for short to medium
term and/or an integrated assessment person (perhaps three or four persons).
You should try to avoid the group being dominated by GCM'lers (do all GCM
groups have to be represented?)
You might ask Ib Troen if there would be any opportunity to obtain EC

funding BEFORE THE FIFTH FRAMEWORK CALL FOR PROPOSALS for a targetted
research topic, if this was strongly and urgently recommended by a task
group workshop. Might there be special funding from DG XI, ENRICH or the
Environment Agency?
Best wishes,
Tim
************************************
Dr. Timothy Carter
Affiliation: Agricultural Research Centre of Finland
Postal address: c/o Finnish Meteorological Institute
Box 503, FIN-00101 Helsinki, FINLAND
Tel: +xxx xxxx xxxx

Fax: +xxx xxxx xxxx
Email: [email protected]
************************************

Emails
From: Richard Warrick <[email protected]>

To: 'Mike Hulme' <[email protected]>
Subject: RE: Scengen and CC:Train
Date: Thu, 16 Jan 1997 10:00:48 xxx xxxx xxxx
Dear Mike,
Thanks for your detailed reply concerning Scengen and CC:Train. I was not
proposing to incorporate Scengen in a major way into the training package,
and I am quite aware of the problems of consistency regarding aerosol
effects, natural variability, etc. Rather, I thought that the training
package would be an excellent way to introduce the existence of Scengen
(and MAGICC) to the Country Teams which are responsible for coordinating
national assessments. (the intention was NOT to provide intensive
technical training in its use -- the country team members are largely
coordinators, not technical climate experts). In this way, when it comes
time to actually carry out the national assessments, Scengen would be
recognised as a major tool for scenario generation and, if appropriate, CRU
could be contacted regarding its application, technical training or
collaboration. You had mentioned to me at the IPCC meeting in London that
one of your major aims was to get Scengen recognised as the "standard" for
scenario generation for impact assessments, and I simply thought I saw a
way of furthering that aim through the CC:Train mechanism.
Given the training programmes that you are currently proposing through
ENRICH and others, I can understand your fears that we might "muddy the
waters". Let me pose the following options; that we
(1) use some hard-copy examples from Scengen;

(2) incorporate a demonstration diskette (do you have one?);
(3) just mention the existence of Scengen;
(4) not mention Scengen at all.
Frankly, I am quite happy with any of these. The part on climate change
scenarios is really only a small bit of the overall V&A training package in
any case.
Good luck with your proposals.
Cheers,
Dick
----------
From: Mike Hulme[SMTP:[email protected]]
Sent: Thursday, 16 January 1997 00:45
To: Richard Warrick
Cc: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]
Subject: Re: Scengen and CC:Train
Dick,
And Happy New Year to you also.
You've posed me a tricky one re. SCENGEN and my answer about it being
incorporated into the CC:Train package as a component tool is going to have
to be 'no'. Let me explain.
We too here have plans to exploit SCENGEN (and MAGICC) in a

training/educational context. I ran a pilot seminar here for UNEP before
Christmas on scenario construction, although this was using the new
WINDOWS/Unix versions of both MAGICC and SCENGEN (MAGICC 2 and SCENGEN 2;
IPCC 1995 compatible) we have re-written. Also, I have just submitted a
proposal (called SPARCCS) to ENRICH in DGXII for a support package for
regional climate change scenarios. This would be a 2-year project with
emissions people, as well as MAGICC, SCENGEN and our new global historic
climatology. I think we have a good chance of funding.
With this background I do not want SCENGEN (and especially the old DOS
version) 'leaking' out into the climate training community at this stage.
I am confirmed in this view by thinking that the complex issues surrounding

scenario creation (and the new IPCC Taskgroup on scenarios for the 3rd
assessment is grappling with these - ask Tim Carter about it) should _not_
be an essential part of a vulnerability/adaptation package. And even if
you
think differently then let me suggest the following: if you think it should
be a minor part then I do not think that you need SCENGEN formally
incorporated; if you think it should be a major part then not only do I
think you are wrong in thinking so, but there is more to the scenario issue
than can be supplied by SCENGEN - for example, you need MAGICC, you need to
consider how you handle aerosols, and you need to think about natural
variability and signal/noise issues.
My feeling is that by all means use SCENGEN within CEARS in thinking about
the training package and coming up with some off-line examples (either
sample scenarios or guided sensitivity), but do _not_ incorporate it in the
package. [By the way SCENGEN does not have imaginery countries!]. If
people want more detailed thinking on scenarios then you could always refer
them to CRU (which is what our speciality is).
I hope you understand my feelings on this - I am not trying to be negative,

but am thinking ahead and about the complexity of the scenario issue. I
have talked with Tim Carter recently at some length about some of these
things so I will copy this correspondence to him.
Good luck with CC:Train anyway and I'm sure you'll come up with something
good.
Regards,
Mike
At 14:41 10/01/97 xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:

>Dear Mike,
>
>Happy New Year's Greetings from Downunder!
>
>I have a question for you regarding Scengen that relates to a "training
>package" which CEARS have agreed to develop for CC:Train (under UNITAR).
> CC:Train is currently developing about four such training packages
>pertaining to climate change, of which CEARS has agreed to undertake one,
>on Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment. The V&A and other packages
are
>supposed to be flexible enough to be used under a variety of regional and
>country contexts. These packages build upon existing guidelines and
>manuals (e.g. Carter et al's IPCC Guidelines...) and are designed for
>trainers who will be conducting training workshops for the coordinators of
>national assessments (the CC:Train "Country Teams"). Beginning on 21
>January, Tim Carter will be here for 3 weeks, as will Stephanie Lenhart
>(U.S. Country Studies Program), in order to help with this task. The V&A
>training modules will closely follow the IPCC Guidelines. I have proposed
>developing the package as a kind of role-playing simulation exercise in
>which the participants carry out a mini-assessment for a hypothetical
>country.
>
>One of the major steps in the assessment, of course, is the development of
>climate change scenarios. I thought it would be very effective to use
>Scengen for this purpose, and to make Scengen a component tool of the
>training package. Can I use Scengen for this purpose? One possible
>advantage of doing so is that Scengen could, de facto, quickly become the
>standard method used by various Country Teams in carrying out national
>assessments for UNFCCC reporting (or is this not an advantage?!).
>
>Please advise on how I should proceed.
>
>Best wishes to all at CRU.
>
>Cheers,
>Dick
>
>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
Dr Mike Hulme tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
Climatic Research Unit fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
School of Environmental Sciences email: [email protected]
University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/
Norwich NR4 7TJ
Mean temperature in C.England during 1996 was 0.3degC below the 1xxx xxxx xxxx
average.
The maximum temperature in Norwich: Tuesday 13 January: 9.1degC.

Emails
From: [email protected] (Gordon Jacoby)

Subject: Russia
Date: Sun, 26 Jan 1997 14:16:xxx xxxx xxxx
Hi Keith:
As you are aware, the situation in Russia is very uncertain with their
unfortunate economic condition, especially science support. There is
interest, hope, and dots on maps showing intent but actual activity is
difficult to judge. In the particular area I am interested in, the Taymyr,
there is no current active tree-ring research going on although it has been
previously sampled and some reports are in preparation. Ed probably told
you that I have submitted a proposal to do work there. My understanding is
that unless there is some external funding support, such as my project,
tree-ring sampling there is in abeyance. Several people, including
yourself, recognize the great potential in the region. From my perspective
it seems that the Polar Urals are being studied, Yokutia to the far east is
being studied, some work has been done by Szeicz and Macdonald at the Lena
but there is need for more intensive effort in Taymyr. I would like to hear
your perspective on the situation.
In a related topic, I am thinking of using the option in Ed's new ARSTAN to

use the regional standardization method. In Russia and other locales the
establishment of trees is episodic. In particular, in Alaska Glenn Juday
has data showing cohort groups being established in favorable times. In
Taymyr also, the establishment of trees is not evenly distributed through
time. There are times of growth and times of demise. This concerns me as it
could affect the development of a regional curve. do you see problems
arising from this?
I am also curious to hear any comments you care to make about my recent
letter to Fritz Schweingruber. He obviously will pursue any style of
sampling and analyses he chooses to. My only contention is that he should
not represent his data as the definitive tree-ring information,
particularly ring-width data. His opinions are influential but there is an
accumulating body of ring-width data that clearly shows him to be missing
much important information with his style of sampling. Scientists and
others should be aware of this fact.
Cheers, Gordon

Emails
From: Arnulf GRUBLER <[email protected]>

To: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected],
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected], Jean-
Subject: sulfur discussion paper
Date: Wed, 05 Mar 1997 17:18:58 +0000
Sulfur Emissions in New IPCC Scenarios
Arnulf Gruebler, IIASA
SUMMARY OF PROPOSED ACTIVITIES
1. Review and comments of present sulfur discussion paper

2. Revision by sulfur paper lead author
3. Preparation of comparison of regional sulfur scenarios (by lead
author with inputs from other members of writing team and experts)
Timing: August 1997.
4. Specification of minimum and desirable sulfur emission scenario

characteristics and specification (for modeling teams in open process)
5. Establishment of key relationships between sulfur emissions and
other salient scenario driving force variables (income,
technological change environmental, non-GHG policies) using the
simple metric of sulfur to carbon emission ratios.
6. Adoption of specific sulfur control scenarios in conformity with
overall scenario ``storylines''.
7. Distribution of ``template'' sulfur scenarios to selected modeling teams
for assessment of climate and acidification impacts of sulfur scenarios.
Timing: End of 1997.
DISCUSSION PAPER
1. Introduction
The purpose of this discussion paper is to review briefly

the assumptions on sulfur emissions in the IS92 IPCC scenarios,
advances in knowledge and modeling of future sulfur emission
scenarios since IS92, as well as to initiate a discussion on how
to incorporate future sulfur emissions trends into the new IPCC emissions
scenarios. The present draft will be revised based on feedback
received within the members of the IPCC writing team as well as
additional outside experts.
2. Sulfur emissions in IS92
The treatment of sulfur emissions in the IS92 scenarios was

comprehensive. In addition to the dominant energy sector emissions,
also sulfur emissions from industrial processes and land-use changes
(biomass burning) and (a constant flow) of natural sources were
included in the scenarios.
1990 base year values in IS92 were as follows in MtS

(Million tons, or Tg, elemental sulfur; to obtain
weight as SO2 multiply by 2.):
Energy Sector: 65 MtS

Other Industry: 8 MtS
Biomass burning: 2 MtS
Natural: 22 MtS
TOTAL: 98 MtS
These global base year values are well within the range given by
global sulfur emission inventories of 4 to 45 MtS natural sources
and 65 to 90 MtS anthropogenic sources in 1990 (IPCC, 1995:xxx xxxx xxxx).
A comparison of 1990 base year sulfur emission values from a number
of scenarios and integrated assessment models is enclosed as
attachment.
However, as observed in the evaluation of the IS92 scenarios (Alcamo et al.,

1995) regional sulfur emissions assumed in IS92 (e.g. for China) are
much more uncertain. There is for instance up to a factor two difference
between regionalized estimated of global inventories and aggregates of
national and regional emissions inventories. Thus, the good agreement of
base year values of IS92 at the global level masks important differences
and uncertainties at the regional level.
A first important task for the new IPCC scenarios is therefore to update the
regional sulfur emissions baseline values with the results of
latest regional sulfur emissions inventories. Such inventories are available
for Europe through EMEP and CORINAIR, North America (NAPAP), and more
recently also for Asia (e.g. the Worldbank sulfur project, Foell et al., 1995).
Improved modeling of regional sulfur emissions (and deposition, i.e.

impacts) patterns would also require a redefinition of the world
regions as used in the IS92 scenario series. For instance, Canada
is included in the region OECD-Europe, and the IS92 region "South
Asia" includes both the Indian subcontinent as well as Indonesia.
Their important differences in resource endowments lead to different
patterns of sulfur emissions. Their differing predominant weather
patterns and distinct ecosystems lead to differing acidic deposition
patterns and impacts. Both factors preclude their aggregation into
one single regional model. Active inputs from representatives of all
respective modeling communities (regional acidification impacts, regional
climate modelers, energy systems analysts) will be sought on this
issue and lessons learned within EMF activities (M. Schlesinger) on
appropriate sulfur regionalization (6 world regions) will be extremely
valuable.
Concerning future emissions of sulfur the IS92 scenarios project

global anthropogenic emissions of between 150 to 200 MtS by 2050 and
between 140 to 230 MtS by 2100 in the high growth cases, and of around 80-90
and 60 MtS in the two low scenarios (IS92c and IS92d) by 2050 and 2100
respectively. The IS92 scenario evaluation (Alcamo
et al., 1995:xxx xxxx xxxx) concluded that the IS92 scenario series only
partially reflect recent legislation to reduce sulfur emissions (e.g.
the amendments to the Clean Air Act in the US or the Second
European sulfur protocol). Hence, particularly regional sulfur
emissions in OECD countries projected in IS92 are much higher than
more recent scenarios taking account these legislative changes (as
also discussed by IPCC, 1995:xxx xxxx xxxx). For instance the recent
scenarios of the Commission of the European Communities (EC, 1996)
indicate that sulfur emissions by 2020 will be between 64 to 77 percent
below 1990 emissions levels, or between less than 2 to 3 MtS, compared to
8 in 1990. For comparison, the IS92 scenarios project for OECD
Europe (including Canada) sulfur emissions between 8.4 (IS92a and
IS92b) and 11.7 (all other scenarios) MtS by 2020, i.e. between 2 to
30 percent lower than in 1990 (12 MtS).
In addition, integrated assessment models are increasingly able to

model in greater detail driving forces of sulfur emissions as well
as acidification impacts (cf. discussion below). These model
simulations suggest that particularly in Asia acidification impacts
would require substantial sulfur emission control measures already
much earlier than 2050. The resulting global sulfur emissions
are substantially lower than suggested in the IS92 series: typically
in the range between 20 to 80 MtS by 2050 and between 20 to 120 MtS
by 2100. (A comparison of global sulfur emissions scenarios with and
without specific sulfur control assumptions in enclosed as
attachment.)
3. What's New since IS92 (scientific front)
The importance of aerosols including those from sulfur emissions

is by now widely recognized and considerable progress has been made
to quantify their effect on regional climate, both in large GCM
simulations as well as in more simplified integrated assessment models,
e.g. MAGICC's SCENGEN module (needs checking for details with Mike Hulme)
or Michael Schlesinger's work within the EMF (current status:
uncertain). The importance of sulfur emissions as input to climate models
is therefore larger than ever.
As a result of a major World Bank study on acid rain in Asia also

improved national and regional sulfur emissions inventories have
become available (Foell et al., 1995). Improved emissions
inventories outside North America, Europe (including the European
part of the former USSR), and Asia (excluding Oceania, for which
only sparse data seems to be available) have not been made available
since publication of IS92.
As a result, models and scenarios continue to rely on estimates, largely
based on approximate mass and sulfur balance approaches in the world regions
for the Middle East, Southern Africa, and Latin America (cf. discussion of
data availability below).
Similarly, acidification impact models are increasingly being

refined for regions outside OECD in particular for Asia.
Acidification impact studies for unabated sulfur
emissions of coal intensive ``business as usual'' scenarios indicate
exceedance of critical loads of up to a factor 10 already within the
next three to four decades (Amann et al., 1995) with enormous
impacts on natural ecosystems as well as important foodcrops (Fischer
et al., 1996).
Increasingly also energy sector and integrated assessment models

link regional acidification models with simplified climate models
enabling joint analysis of sulfur and climate policies and
impacts. Examples include the IMAGE model (Posch et al., 1996) and the
IIASA integrated assessment model (Rogner and Nakicenovic, 1996) that are
linked with the acidification model RAINS for Europe and Asia, the AIM
(Morita et al., 1994) model for Asia, or ???? for North America.
These models extend earlier energy sector models that dealt with a
comparative costs assessment of isolated sulfur and carbon reductions,
and joint mitigation respectively, such as the OECD GREEN model
(Complainville and Martins, 1994). The state of knowledge of joint
benefits of sulfur and carbon emission reductions was reviewed in
the 1995 IPCC WG III report (IPCC, 1996: xxx xxxx xxxx) and is expanding
rapidly.
4. Data requirements
The most obvious data requirements concern of course

comprehensiveness of sulfur emissions by major source category
(anthropogenic and natural, energy sector and other industrial sources).
Here the data model of the IS92 scenarios appears appropriate and would only
require a reassessment in view of most recent data concerning regional
emissions (particularly in China, where data uncertainties seem
largest).
A more difficult question concerns spatial disaggregation.

Independent from the question of which formal models are being used
to check for scenario consistency, the outmost spatial detail
currently in driving force models with global coverage available is
at the level of world regions (typically around 10, but going up to
around 20 world regions). Both climate as well as acidification
models require inputs at finer spatial resolution. It is unclear at
present what would constitute a ``minimum'' or ``desirable'' level
of spatial disaggregation for the variety of user communities of new
IPCC scenarios. Existing model links (like with the RAINS model)
could be used in some regions like Europe and Asia to generate
spatially highly disaggregated sulfur emission and deposition maps
as inputs for climate models and for impact assessment studies (e.g.
for agricultural crop yield models). In their most advanced
versions the model links even incorporate regionalized differential
growth trends and thus improve on the standard practice of
renormalizing base year spatial emission and deposition patterns
linearly with a particular sulfur emissions scenario.
For regions where similar links are unavailable, more simplified procedures
will need to be devised, keeping in mind the overall tight time frame of the
scenario exercise. Two data sets (are there more??) appear available for
regionalized sulfur emission patterns: the Oak Ridge
GAIA data set (spatial resolution: ????) and the Spiro et al. (1992)
data set (spatial resolution: one degree by one degree).
An open (but extremely critical) issue remaining to be resolved is

to identify mechanisms and responsible groups that could provide the
link between the spatial resolution of the new IPCC scenarios sulfur
emissions to whatever final geographical scales required by impact
assessment and climate models.
5. Scenarios and Sulfur Policies
There are two major sets of driving force variable that influence
future sulfur emissions. 1. Level and structure of energy supply and end
use, and 2. degree of sulfur control policies assumed. (Because of the
dominance of energy related sulfur emissions, they should receive
particular attention in the new scenarios. Industrial sources could
be included in the scenarios with much a simpler driving force
model, e.g. coupling to industrial output.)
Ceteris paribus, highest sulfur emissions occur in scenarios of high demand
growth, rapid resource depletion, limited technological change and absence
of sulfur control policies outside OECD countries. In terms of energy
supply structures such scenarios imply a massive use of coal, including
synfuel production. Typical examples would include the IS92e
and IS92f scenarios. Up to ca. 2050 sulfur emissions in such
scenarios roughly grow in line with fossil fuel use and resulting
carbon emissions, i.e. a roughly constant sulfur to carbon emissions
ratio. Post 2050, still in absence of sulfur control policies,
growth rates of sulfur emissions start to fall short of growth in
fossil fuel use due to the internal technology logic of synfuel
production: synfuel production requires prior coal conversion (e.g.
gasification) and removal of sulfur prior to further conversion,
e.g. to synliquids. Ceteris paribus, therefore sulfur emissions
relative to those of carbon decline.
Sulfur emissions are lower in scenarios with 1. lower demand, 2. more

ample resource availability (especially for natural gas), 3. higher
rates of technological change (especially for non-fossil energy
technologies), and 4. extent and timing of direct sulfur control policies
especially outside OECD countries (itself function of projected impacts like
acidification), and finally, 5. level of other environmental control
measures and valuation of environmental goods (e.g. sulfur emissions are
also lower in scenarios imposing limits on GHG emissions).
Next to environmental impacts and policies, there are also other key
relationships that need to be considered for the formulation of
future sulfur scenarios. For instance, the literature on
environmental Kuznets curves (cf. e.g. World Bank, 1992, or
IIASA-WEC, 1995) argues that with increasing affluence and valuation
of environmental goods, sulfur emissions decline. This hypothesis
is corroborated by both longitudinal and cross-sectional empirical
data. Thus, in the process of industrialization and economic development,
emissions rise initially, pass through a maximum (say at income levels
around 2000 $/capita) and decline thereafter with rising per capita incomes
and the resulting preference of cleaner end-use fuels, valuation of clean
environments, etc.
A scenario taxonomy along the dimensions of demand, resource

availability, and technological change in any case is necessary to
respond to the critique on the IS92 series that these important
driving forces were not varied appropriately to reflect both
uncertainty as well as new scientific knowledge and empirical
evidence. They form part of the overall scenario design process and
the scenario ``storylines'' and need not to be addressed
specifically in the work on sulfur emissions.
Separate ``sulfur stories'' could be developed in addition, based on various

relationships between sulfur emissions and levels of affluence,
industrial structure, etc. within the overall framework of the
scenario ``storylines''. Here sulfur emissions would be part of
other environmental policies (e.g. on water quality, urban traffic
related pollutants, etc.) that form integral part of particular
scenario ``storylines''.
A key variable remains the timing and extent of sulfur control

policies to be assumed for the new scenarios. First of all the
scenarios need to reflect changes in actual policies implemented.
As noted above, IS92 did not take full account of recent
environmental legislation in both North America and the second
European sulfur protocol. Secondly, the sulfur policies to be
assumed, need to reflect recent scientific findings, in particular
the very large local and regional impacts on agricultural crops and
ecosystems of unabated high sulfur emission scenarios, particularly
in Asia. Therefore, all scenarios should assume faster and
deeper reductions in sulfur emissions outside OECD countries than
were assumed for IS92 in light of this recent scientific evidence. The
exact timing and extent of such sulfur reduction measures could then
be scenario dependent. Also no specific reference to individual
policy measures would need to be made (to avoid normative policy
elements, or recommendations, in the scenarios), as reduction
profiles could be adopted from existing sulfur reduction scenarios
in the scientific literaursement by UE (Action COST) for the lecturer, but for
this I hope to
>have an answer as soon as possible.
>
>Thank you for your answer
>
>Best regards
>
>I'm Bernardo Gozzini and I work with Marco Bindi in the organisation of this
>seminar because Marco in the next week will leave for USA for two months and
>he cannot follow it
>******************************************************************
>Bernardo Gozzini
>Ce.S.I.A.-Accademia dei Georgofili
>Piazzale delle Cascine, 18
>50144 FIRENZE ITALIA
>
>tel: 39 xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx/ 354897
>fax 39 xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
>******************************************************************
>
>

Emails
From: Eugene Vaganov <[email protected]>

Subject: from Vaganov
Date: Thu, 6 Mar 97 14:40:15 +0000 (KRS)
06.03.97
fAJL partid.txt
2.xxx xxxx xxxxCO

2.xxx xxxx xxxxProfessor
2.xxx xxxx xxxxHead of Group
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxFritz
2.6
2.xxx xxxx xxxxSchweingruber
2.8.1 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape
Research
2.8.2 Department of Ecology
2.8.3 Forest and Climate Research Unit
2.9
2.10 Zuercherstrasse 111
2.11
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.13 Birmensdorf
2.14 CH
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.17 [email protected]
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxxCR

2.xxx xxxx xxxxDoctor of Philosophy
2.xxx xxxx xxxxSenior Research Associate
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxKeith
2.6
2.xxx xxxx xxxxBriffa
2.8.1 University of East Anglia
2.8.2 School of Environmental Sciences
2.8.3 Climatic Research Unit
2.9
2.10
2.11
2.12 NR4 7TJ
2.13 Norwich
2.14 GB
2.xxx xxxx xxxx90
2.xxx xxxx xxxx84
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx,000
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx,000
2.xxx xxxx xxxx,000
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxxCR

2.xxx xxxx xxxxDoctor of Biological Sciences
2.xxx xxxx xxxxHead of the Laboratory of Dendrochronology
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxStepan
2.xxx xxxx xxxxGrigor'evich
2.xxx xxxx xxxxShiyatov
2.8.1 Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology
2.8.2
2.8.3 Laboratory of Dendrochronology
2.xxx xxxx xxxxUral Branch RAS
2.xxx xxxx xxxxMarta Street 202
2.11
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.13 Ekaterinburg
2.14 RU
2.xxx xxxx xxxx0
2.xxx xxxx xxxx1
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxxCR

2.xxx xxxx xxxxDoctor of Biological Sciences
2.xxx xxxx xxxxDirector of Forest Institute
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxEvgeny
2.xxx xxxx xxxxAlexandrovich
2.xxx xxxx xxxxVaganov
2.8.1 Institute of Forest
2.8.2
2.8.3 Laboratory of Dendrochronology
2.xxx xxxx xxxxSiberian Branch RAS
2.10
2.11
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.13 Krasnoyarsk
2.14 RU
2.xxx xxxx xxxx9
2.xxx xxxx xxxx6
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
fAJL power.txt
"MULTI-MILLENNIAL-LENGTH DENDROCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONS AT

HIGH-LATITUDE REGIONS OF SIBERIA".
By signing this declaration, I certify that the information given

in this proposal relating to me and the team I represent is to
the best of my knowledge true and complete. I have been involved
in the preparation of the full proposal and I agree with its
contents. I am fully authorised to commit myself and the team I
represent to be ready to set up and execute all tasks, duties and
obligations assigned to us in this research proposal, if
selected.
I hereby authorise the co-ordinator as lawful attorney and

administrator and empower him to act all of the necessary actions
to administrate validly the herein said rights on behalf of me in
case the proposal should be selected by INTAS, inter alia, to
negotiate and to conclude the co-operation agreement, as well as
any amendments, variations or additions to the co-operation
agreement on my behalf.
Laboratory of Dendrochronology
Institute of Forest SB RAS
Krasnoyarsk
Dr.Eugene A.Vaganov
5 March, 1997
fAJL projid.txt
1.1 Multi-millennial-length dendroclimatic reconstructions

at high-latitude regions of Siberia.
1.2 5
1.xxx xxxx xxxx
1.4 36
1.5 Oct-97
1.6 4
1.xxx xxxx xxxx
By signing this proposal, I certify that the information given in

this proposal is the best of my knowledge, true and complete as
received from all project participants; that all participants
were involved in the preparation, agree with this project
proposal and have declared themselves ready to perform the
project as proposed in case of selection.
I am fully authorised to commit myself and the team I represent

to be ready to set up and execute all tasks, duties and
obligations assigned to us in this research proposal and I am
ready to act as the co-ordinator of the project.
The proposal contains ..... pages.
PROJECT CO-ORDINATOR First name and family name:

Fritz Schweingruber
Date: ..... March,1xxx xxxx xxxxOriginal signature:
fAJL sum.txt
4.1. TITLE OF THE PROJECT

Multi-millennial-length dendroclimaticreconstructions
at high-latitude regions of Siberia
4.2. SUMMARY
This research will make a major contribution to our knowledge of
high-resolution climate variability at high latitudes of Western
and Middle Siberia throughout the Holocene using the unique
potential of tree-ring data.
The specific objectives of this proposal are the development of

two supra-long (each spanning xxx xxxx xxxxyears up to present)
continuous larch ring-width chronologies at two distant each
other high-latitude locations of Siberia (Yamal and Taimyr
peninsulas). Ring-width chronologies developed from coniferous
trees growing at the polar timberline in Siberia contain a very
strong climatic signal, mainly summer air temperatures. With
these chronologies high-resolution continuous and quantitative
reconstruction of summer temperatures will be made.
As in the areas of the past and present polar and upper

timberlines trees megafossils have been preserved properly in
large quantities in the Holocene deposits (alluvial, lacustrine
and peat), there is a good possibility to develop continuous,
multi-millennial tree-ring chronologies.
Now the material already collected and measured (1800 subfossil

wood samples from Yamal and 280 samples from Taimyr) has yielded
the ring-width chronologies continuously spanning the last 3200
years (Yamal) and 950 years (Taimyr).
However, there are also many more samples that have been measured
and have provided data, now assembled in a number of provisionally
"floating" chronologies covering much of the period from 7000 to
1700 B.C. (based on some 70 radiocarbon dates of samples of this
wood). There is a fair chance that a xxx xxxx xxxxyear continuous
chronologies will be constructed within the span of the proposed
project.
These chronologies and temperature reconstructions will be the

first to be so long, reliable, annually-resolved and
precisely-dated with known reliability across the whole of
northern Hemisphere. These reconstructions will allow to compare
and contrast the details of temperature changes at the
moderate-continental region of Yamal Peninsula with the
continental region of Taimyr Peninsula and allow modern and
predicted temperature patterns to be compared with variability
patterns of pre-industrial era. Participants of the proposed
project are the well-known institutions which are engaged in the
field of dendrochronology and dendroclimatology and have
collaborated with each other during the last 6 years.
fAJL workpro.txt
3.1 TITLE
Multi-millennial-length dendroclimatic reconstructions
at high-latitude regions of Siberia
3.2 OBJECTIVES
This research will make a major contribution to our knoweledge of
high-resolution climate variability at high latitudes of Western
and Middle Siberia throughout the Holocene using the unique
potential of tree-ring data.
The specific objectives of this proposal are as follows:

- to develop two supra-long (each spanning xxx xxxx xxxxyears up to
present) continuous ring-width larch chronologies at two
high-latitude locations of Siberia;
- using these tree-ring chronologies, tomake a multi-millennial
high-resolution continuous and quantitative reconstruction of
summer temperatures;
- to analyse spatio-temporal patterns of temperature variability
at these locations over a range of timescales (annual, decadal,
multi-decadal and centennial) and their connections with various
forcing factors and other annual resolution records being
developed elsewhere in the Arctic and Subarctic.
3.3. BACKGROUND
Reconstruction and analysis of natural climatic changes through
the whole Holocene at high latitudes are of great importance as
climatic conditions, especially air temperature, are most
variable and sensitive to various forcing functions (Budyko,
1980; Jones and Kelly, 1983; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 1990). However, there are a minute quantity of long,
precisely-dated and high-resolution proxy climatic series for
these regions.
The territory of Yamal Peninsula located on the eastern boundary
of influence of the Atlantic air masses and the territory of the
eastern part of Taimyr Peninsula located between the Arctic High
and Siberian High are of major importance for monitoring regional
and global-mean air temperatures and assessing theories and
models concerned with past, current and future climate changes
(Lamb, 1977; Briffa and Jones, 1993; Moses et al., 1987).
Tree rings as a proxy indicator of the past climatic conditions

are of special interest as they allow to reconstruct climatic
parameters with seasonal and annual resolution for many hundred
and thousand years, to provide an exact absolute and relative
dating of the tree-ring data, to establish high-frequency climate
changes (from interannual to centennial timescales) with high
confidence, to obtain dendroclimatic information practically for
every site where trees grow at present or grew in the past.
Intensive dendroclimatic investigations are carrying out in many

countries and regions, mainly in temperate and subtropic zones
(Fritts, 1976, 1991 ). At high latitudes such works began later
(during the last two decades) and living trees were used
primarily for developing tree-ring chronologies of xxx xxxx xxxxyears
long (Aniol and Eckstein, 1984; Shiyatov, 1984, 1986; Jacoby and
D'Arrigo, 1989; Schweingruber, Briffa and Nogler, 1993; Briffa,
Jones, Schweingruber, Shiyatov and Vaganov,1996; Jacoby, Wiles,
D'Arrigo, 1996; Vaganov, Shiyatov and Mazepa, 1996). As in the
areas of the past and present polar and upper timberlines trees
megafossils have been preserved properly in large quantities on
the surface and in the Holocene deposits (alluvial, lacustrine
and peat), there is a possibility to develop continuous,
multi-millennium and sensitive to climate tree-ring chronologies.
Such works began in the Polar Ural Mountains (Shiyatov, 1986;
Graybill and Shiyatov, 1992; Briffa, Jones, Schweingruber,
Shiyatov and Cook, 1995), in the southern part of Yamal Peninsula
(Shiyatov, Surkov, 1980; Hantemirov, 1995), in Finnish Lapland
and Northern Sweden (Zetterberg, Eronen and Briffa, 1995), in
the eastern part of Taimyr Peninsula (Vaganov, Naurazbaev,
Schweingruber and Briffa, in press) and in the Lower Indigirka
River at present. Now the longest, continuous and absolute-dated
ring-width chronologies developed for the Yamal Peninsula
(spanning 3200 years) and for the Northern Scandinavia (spanning
2160 years) and the "floating" chronologies dated by the
radiocarbon method extended back 9500 and over 7000 years
respectively.
Ring-width chronologies developed from coniferous trees growing

at the polar timberline in moderate-continental and continental
regions of Siberia contain a very strong climatic signal, mainly
summer air temperatures of tree growth year (Graybill and
Shiyatov, 1992; Briffa, Jones, Schweingruber, Shiyatov and Cook,
1995; Hantemirov, 1995; Vaganov, Shiyatov and Mazepa, 1996).The
explained variance over the calibration and verification periods
is highest reported in the literature to date (65-70%) and it
allows to make a quantitative reconstructions of summer
temperatures. These chronologies and temperature reconstructions
will be the first to be so long, reliable, annually-resolved and
precisely-dated with known reliability across the whole of
northern Hemisphere. These reconstructions will allow to compare
and contrast the details of temperature changes at the
moderate-continental region of Yamal Peninsula with the
continental region of Taimyr Peninsula and allow modern and
predicted temperature patterns to be compared with variability
patterns of pre-industrial era.
Participants of the proposed project are the well-known

institutions which are engaged in the field of dendrochronology
and dendroclimatology and have collaborated with each other
during the last 6 years.
- The Group of Tree-Ring and Site of the Swiss Federal Institute

for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (Birmensdorf,
Switzerland). The Group is currently engaged on a major programme
of densitometric and ring-width chronology development involving
many sites across the whole of the Northern Hemisphere including
sites with living trees in the polar timberline area of Russia.
This work is specifically designed to provide
climatically-sensitive data for use in large spatial climate
reconstruction work. Dr. F.H.Schweingruber, Head of the Group, is
known throughout the world for his work in wood anatomy and
dendrochronology and the development of tree-ring densitometry.
He has published extensively in different areas of wood anatomy
and tree-growth research and has authored several classic books.
- The Laboratory of Dendrochronology of the Institute of Plant

and Animal Ecology of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
Ekaterinburg, Russia is one of the leading laboratory in the
field of dendrochronology in Russia. The Laboratory has an
international reputation for its work on the developing
ring-width chronologies at high latitudes and altitudes,
reconstruction of climatic conditions, developing long-term
chronologies, studying cycles in tree-ring series, using
tree-ring data for studies of the upper and polar timberlines
dynamics and forest succession. Dr. S.G.Shiyatov, Head of the
Laboratory, is one of the pioneers of dendrochronology in Russia
and has worked for more than 30 years in the Far North and
mountains of the Urals, Siberia, Far East and Middle Asia. He has
published more than 130 articles and three monographs. Dr.
Shiyatov was the first who began to collect subfossil wood in
Russia for developing long-term chronologies.
- The Laboratory of Dendrochronology of the Institute of Forest

of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia is
another leading laboratory in the field of dendrochronology in
Russia. Dr. E.A.Vaganov, Director of the Institute of Forest and
Head of the Laboratory of Dendrochronology, has an international
reputation for his work on the cell structure of wood lyers of
coniferous trees, seasonal growth variations and cambium
activity, developing simulation models of seasonal tree growth,
developing ring-width and cell chronologies, reconstructing
climatic conditions of the past using tree-ring chronologies. He
has published more than 100 articles and 5 monographs.
- The Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia,

Norwich, Great Britain is one of the world's leading research
organisation specialising in the study of climate change: climate
history, current climates, projected changes and impacts. Dr.
K.R.Briffa, Senior Research Associate at the Climatic Research
Unit, has considerable experience in climatology and with the use
of statistical methods of climate analyses and dendroclimatic
reconstruction, especially with regard to large-spatial-scale
reconstructions of climate patterns and published many articles
on the theoretical and practical aspects of dendrochronology and
dendroclimatology, and on use of paleoclimate data for
understanding current and possible future climates.
3.4 SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION
3.4.1. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

Tree-ring data will be obtained from living trees and subfossil
wood of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) in western Siberia
and Gmelini larch (Larix Gmelini Pilger) in central Siberia. The
first location is situated in the southern part of Yamal
Peninsula xxx xxxx xxxxN, xxx xxxx xxxxE), the second location in the eastern
part of Taimyr Peninsula xxx xxxx xxxxN, xxx xxxx xxxxE). There is a great
many properly preserved subfossil wood in the Holocene deposits
at both locations, mainly in the alluvial and peat deposits.
The main variable measured will be ring width. This variable

reflects properly climate influences on tree growth at the polar
timberline areas of Siberia having a continental climate.
Ring-width chronologies for the last xxx xxxx xxxxyears will be

developed from the oldest living trees. Extensions to these
chronologies back further in time will be made by using subfossil
material, joined with the living material by standard crossdating
procedures. High-precision radiocarbon dates will be used for
rough dating of "floating" tree-ring chronologies.
The sampling subfossil wood and development of the Yamal's

supra-long chronology began since 1982 by the workers of the
Laboratory of Dendrochronology (Ekaterinburg). Most intensively
this work was carried out during the last five years. Now the
material already collected and measured (1800 subfossil wood
cuts) has yielded the ring-width chronology continuously spanning
the last 3200 years. However, there are also many more samples
that have been measured and have provided data, now assembled in
a number of provisionally "floating" chronologies covering much
of the period from 7000 to 1700 B.C. (based on some 45
radiocarbon dates of samples of this wood). These chronologies
separated by 50 to 500 year length gaps. There is a fair chance
that a 9000-year continuous chronology will be constructed for
this location within the span of the proposed project.
Similarly, work with a shorter history than the Yamal's research

has clearly established potential to build a chronology at least
as long in the Taimyr Peninsula where the modern polar timberline
extends to about 72830'N, most northern over the world. This work
is not so advanced as in Yamal, but the work to date suggests
that very rapid progress is likely. Samples from living and dead
trees have already been assembled at the Laboratory of
Dendrochronology (Krasnoyarsk) into the 950-year continuous
chronology. The collections from this location are not so
extensive as those made to date at Yamal (280 subfossil wood
samples), but there is an abundant supply of subfossil trees,
many with over 300 annual rings. 25 radiocarbon dates of samples
of this material suggest major phases of tree growth around 8500
B.P. and 5000 B.P. The general distribution of the radiocarbon
dates suggests that, eventually, sufficient trees can probably be
located to span the whole of the last 10000 years. It is not
expected that a continuous 10000-year ring-width chronology will
be produced within timeframe of this project. However, there are
good prospects of producing a xxx xxxx xxxxyear chronology to the
present.
3.4.2 RESEARCH RESULTS

During three years we expect to develop the continuous and
good-replicated tree-ring 9000-year larch chronology for the
Yamal Peninsula and the xxx xxxx xxxxyear larch chronology for the
Taimyr Peninsula. Using these chronologies we intend to
reconstruct and analyse a summer temperature variation at several
time scales (annual, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial) and
compare the data obtained with other high-resolution
Holocene-length proxy data (ice cores, laminated sediments,
historical documents).
The results of this project will be published primarily in the

scientific literature in Russian and English and presented at
different national and international conferences. Because of the
fundamental interdisciplinarity and collaborative interaction
within the subgroups, a number of multi-authored papers will be
produced. The individual and mean ring-width chronologies and the
reconstructions produced will be distributed to the international
scientific community through submission to the International
Tree-Ring Data Bank (Boulder, Colorado, USA) and to other
national and international institutions and data centres.
3.5 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION
3.5.1 TASK DIVISION

Dr F.H.Schweingruber (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow
and Landscape Research) will be the project co-ordinator on the
proposed project from the INTAS countries.
Dr S.G.Shiyatov (Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology) will be

the responsible scientist on the proposed project and he will
take part in collecting, dating, developing and analysing the
multi-millennial ring-width chronology at the area of Yamal
Peninsula. The next young scientists of the Institute will be
involved in the project:
Rashit M. Hantemirov, Candidate of Biological Sciences,
34 years old. He will take part in collecting, cross-dating
and analysing the material.
Alexander Yu. Surkov, technician, 30 years old. He will take part
in collecting, preparing and measuring the subfossil wood samples.
Dr E.A.Vaganov (Institute of Forest) will be the responsible

scientist on the proposed project and he will take part in
collecting, dating, developing and analysing the multi-millennial
ring-width chronology at the area of Taimyr Peninsula. The next
young scientists will be involved in the project:
Mukhtar M. Naurazbaev, junior research fellow,35 years old.
He will take part in collecting, preparing, measuring, cross-
dating and analysing the material.
Alexander V.Kirdyanov, post-graduate, 25 years old.
He will take part in data processing, density measurements,
chronology analysis.
Dmitry V.Ovchinnikov, post-graduate, 26 years old.
He will take part in cross-dating, data processing,
chronology analysis.
Dr K.R.Briffa (Climatic Research Unit) will be the responsible

scientist on the proposed project and he will take part in
analysing growth-climate relationships, developing statistical
models of tree growth, extracting climatic signal, reconstructing
and analysing climatic conditions of the remote past.
3.5.2 PLANNING
To carry-out the objectives of this proposal the workers of the
Russian laboratories will carry out an intensive collecting
subfossil wood during summers of 1xxx xxxx xxxxat two high-latitude
locations (Yamal and Taimyr peninsulas) using helicopters, boats
and ships. To finish the development of the Yamal chronology it
is necessary to collect additionally no less than xxx xxxx xxxxcuts of
subfossil wood. Much more intensive collecting (xxx xxxx xxxxcuts for
two field seasons) is needed to develop the Taimyr chronology.
All samples collected during these two years and earlier will be
measured and cross-dated at Ekaterinburg and Krasnoyarsk
laboratories until the middle of 1999.
The Russian laboratories together with the Climatic Research Unit

of the University of East Anglia during 1xxx xxxx xxxxwill be
analysing the material obtained (standardization of individual
series, development of mean chronologies, studying growth-climate
relationships, developing statistical models of tree growth,
extracting climatic signal, reconstructing and analysing climatic
conditions of the remote past). This work will be finished at the
end of 1999.
3.5.3 EQUIPMENT
Participants of the proposed project have the necessary equipment
for fieldwork, measuring equipment and compatible software.
3.5.4 SCIENTIFIC REFERENCES

Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Schweingruber, F.H., Shiyatov, S.G.
and Cook, E.R. Unusual twentieth-century summer warmth in a
1,000-year temperature record from Siberia. Nature, 1995, Vol.
376, 13 July, xxx xxxx xxxx.
Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Schweingruber, F.H., Shiyatov, S.G.,

Vaganov, E.A. Development of a North Eurasian chronology network:
Rationale and preliminary results of comparative ring-width and
densitimetric analyses in Northern Russia. Radiocarbon, 1996,
25-41.
Hantemirov, R.M. A 2,305 year tree-ring reconstruction of mean

June-July temperature deviations in the Yamal Peninsula.
Publication of the Academy of Finland,1995, 6, xxx xxxx xxxx.
Shiyatov, S.G., Mazepa, V.S., Vaganov, E.A., Schweingruber, F.H.

Summer temperature variations reconstructed by tree-ring Data at
the polar timberline in Siberia. Radiocarbon, 1996, 61-70.
Vaganov, E.A., Shiyatov, S.G., Mazepa, V.S. Dendroclimatic Study

in Ural-Siberian Subarctic. Novosibirsk: "Nauka", Siberian
Publishing Firm RAS, 1996, 246 pp. (in Russian).

Emails

To: m.salmon@uea
Subject: from Rashit
Date: Fri Apr 4 14:26:xxx xxxx xxxx
>To: [email protected]
>Organization: ECOLOGY INSTITUTE
>From: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" <[email protected]>
>Date: Mon, 9 Dec 96 14:19:37 +0500
>Return-Receipt-To: [email protected]
>Subject: from Rashit
>Return-Receipt-To: [email protected]
>Lines: 106
>
>Dear Keith,
>we received your letters concerning our paper for Dendrochronologia
>and three long chronologies.
>1. As regards individual ring width data of living trees from
>Yamal we would remind you that you have them. Stepan gave to you
>in England one diskette. There are data for Larix sibirica from
>three sites (KHA - from Khadyta river, 67812'N 69850'E; JAH -
>from Yahody river 67807'N 69854'E and POR - from Portsa river
>67827'N 71800'E) and for Picea obovata from two points (SCH -
>Shtshutshya river 66849'N 69850'E and KHD - from Khadyta river
>67807'N 69854'E).
>2. We would be very gratefull if you can do some corrections and
>additions in the paper for Dendrochronologia. We did not quite
>understand what we have to do on missing rings? Just enumerate
>years when missing rings occur? If so, these are following years:
>
> Year absent % ind % Year absent % ind %
>-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 31
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 34
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx
xxxxliving
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof
16 6%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 16 6%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 20
5%
73%
64%
55%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 66
> l i v i n g
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 38
>
>We have to note that frequency of missing rings on increment
>cores of living trees higher, because on samples of subfossil
>trees we try to find this kind of rings on whole disc.
>Some periods are notable for missing rings: xxx xxxx xxxxBC, 882 BC,
>143 AD, xxx xxxx xxxxAD (especially 640 AD), xxx xxxx xxxxAD, 1453 AD
>and beginning of 1800th AD.
>3. Stepan ask what about book by Bailey?
>Best wishes,
>Rashit
>
>

Emails

Subject: from Shiyatov
Date: Mon, 5 May 97 09:44:43 +0500
Dear Keith,
After our long silence we would like inform you about our
sucesses, problems and plans.
1. The main success to our mind is the next. We have filled up

the gap (1xxx xxxx xxxxBC) between the absolutely dated 3250-year
Yamal chronology and the nearest floating chronology. It was
happened few weeks ago using samples collected in 1996. Now
there are no obstacles to develop in the nearest future the
7xxx xxxx xxxxyear length continuous chronology. Now we are
working with ancient samples: searching the places of missing
and false rings, making more precise datings of individual
chronologies and so on. During this time interval we have some
problems. For example, no more samples were found up to now to
confirm the absence of false ring near 360 BC.
2. This summer we intend to hold an expedition from the end of

June to the middle of August in the southern part of Yamal
peninsula to collect more samples of subfossil wood which have
a great many of rings, are sensitive and cover the intervals
represented by insufficient quantity of samples at present. We
think that during this field season we must collect a necessary
quantity of samples to develop a well represented 7xxx xxxx xxxx
years chronology. Next year we intend to collect subfossil
samples of wood from the middle part of Yamal peninsula to
reconstruct the dynamics of polar timberline during the
Holocene in detail using a large number of tree remnants
absolutely dated by dendrochronological method.
2. This year we have a small grant the from the Russsian

Science Foundation for developing the Yamal supra-long
chronology (approximately 4000 USD). But we are not sure
that all this sum we will receive. For example, last year we
have received 37% from the promised sum of money. As cost of
helicopter's rent is increased again this year (about $ 2.000
for one hour), we have the problem how to reach our research
area in the Yamal peninsula. E. Vaganov have the same problem
with organisation of field works over the territory of Taimyr
peninsula. That is why we and E.Vaganov ask you to transfer
each of us 7-8.000 USD until the end of June from the ADVANCE
project, if it is possible. Last summer, when I was in England,
you promised to help us with money to organise field works this
year.
3. I am finishing a measurements of rings of subfossil wood

samples collected last year on the surface and in one lake
and some bogs in the Polar Ural Mountains. I found a little
more ancient wood (not all samples are dated until now) and
can prolong this chronology at least up to one hundred years.
This summer I will be in the mountains and try to collect
wood from other lakes. I want to develop the Polar Urals
chronology for the last 2.000 years.
4. Now we are preparing the paper concerning Yamal project

in Russian and we need to cite the paper prepared for
Dendrochronologia in English. Could you send to us the last
version of this articles by e-mail or by post?
We wish you and your family the best. We wish the same to
Phil Jones and his family.
Sincerely yours
Stepan Shiyatov and Rashit Hantemirov

Emails
From: "Isaak M. Khalatnikov" <[email protected]>

Subject: Keith Briffa
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 97 07:18:26 +0400 (MSD)
Dear Keith,
Thank you for the message of 5 June, 1997.
I am anderstanding your difficulties with transfering money and I

think the best way for us if you will bring money to Krasnoyarsk
and I give you a receipt.
Rashit will go to Yamal at the end of June and I go to the Polar

Urals at the beginnind of July. We can find money temporary at our
Institute and other sources for three months to fulfill our fieldworks.
Now I am at two weeks holiday with my wife and granddother near Moscow
after the meeting of Russian Academy of Sciences where E.Vaganov was
elected as the Academician. It is important for dendrochronological
srudies at our country and international collaboration.

Emails

Subject: from Shiyatov
Date: Tue, 17 Jun 97 14:36:06 +0500
Dear Keith,
I am not sure you received my message sent the last week from
Moscow. Therefore I decided to repeat it.
Thank you for the message of 5 June,1997.
I am anderstanding your difficulties with transfering money and I

think the best way for us if you will bring money to Krasnoyarsk
and I give you a receipt.
Rashit will go to Yamal at the end of June and I go to the Polar

Urals at the beginning of July. We can find money temporary at our
Institute and other sources for three months to fulfill our fieldworks.
Now I am at two weeks holiday with my wife and grand-daughter near Moscow
after the meeting of Russian Academy of Sciences where E.Vaganov was
elected as the Academician of RAS. It is important for dendrochronological
studies at our country and international collaboration.

Emails
From: Arnulf Gruebler <[email protected]>

To: [email protected], [email protected],
dpid@[169.158.128.138], [email protected], [email protected],
Subject: No Subject
Date: Fri, 01 Aug 1997 15:51:38 +0200
<x-rich>
Dear Participants,
Please find attached the Minutes of the SRES Meeting in Laxenburg, June 14-16.
1997.
Please note that the list of participants will be sent additionally Monday, 4th of
August.
Best regards,
Arnulf
</x-rich>
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachfinalmin.doc"

<x-rich>
<center>Dr. Arnulf Gruebler
Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies
International Institute for | Email: [email protected]
Applied Systems Analysis | Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria | Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx</center></x-rich>

Emails
From: "Wallace, Helen" <[email protected]>

To: "'[email protected]'" <[email protected]>,
"'[email protected]'" <[email protected]>
Subject: Letter
Date: Thu, 21 Aug 1997 18:21:04 +0100
Dear Tony and Michael,
The final draft of the letter to the Times is attached, incorperating

your changes (I hope I have combined them in a way that you are both
happy with).
Brian Hoskins and Adrian Jenkins have both decided that they prefer not
to sign the letter, although agreeing with its message. I haven't been
able to contact anyone else in the short time available, so I leave it
up to you to decide whether you are still both happy to go ahead.
If so, Mike could you please reply to both Tony and myself and let us
know, and Tony could you then send it as agreed?
Thank you both very much for your time and trouble.
Best regards,
Helen
Dr Helen Wallace
Senior Scientist
Greenpeace UK
Greenpeace, Canonbury Villas, London, N1 2PN
Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx

Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
---------------------------
FINAL DRAFT
Letters Editor
The Times
Fax: 0xxx xxxx xxxx

21 June 1997
Dear Sir,
Without wishing to comment on the dispute between BP and Greenpeace

(Editorial, 20 August), we would like to remind your readers of the
seriousness of the potential threat caused by our continued use of
fossil fuels. This damage occurs both locally - as evidenced by the
deterioration of air quality in UK cities in the past few weeks - and
also globally.
As scientists studying the impacts of climate change, we consider the

global threat from greenhouse gases to be serious and to need
addressing. Adverse effects on human populations are likely to result
from changes in weather patterns, shifts in storm frequencies, rises in
sea level and the spread of certain pests and infectious diseases. A
wide variety of ecosystems throughout the world will be at increasing
risk.
We have little idea whether or not we can manage such adverse effects
and therefore the prudent course of action is to limit the cause of the
threat.
Major shifts in investment away from fossil fuels will therefore be

required to make the necessary reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide
to the atmosphere. Large companies like British Petroleum seem to us to
be well placed to take an active part in investing in these changes.
There is no doubt the need for precautionary, preventative action is
urgent.
Yours sincerely,
Prof. A.J. McMichael
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
University of London
Keppel Street
London
WC1E 7HT
Dr. M. Hulme
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich
NR4 7TJ

Emails
From: Nebojsa Nakicenovic <[email protected]>

[email protected], [email protected], dpid@[169.158.128.138],
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected], t-
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Subject: IPCC - a) Meeting, 17-19. Sept. 97; b) New Bureau
Date: Mon, 06 Oct 1997 16:54:08 +0200
<x-rich>Dear Colleagues,
I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of you who have attended the
SRES Lead Authors' meeting xxx xxxx xxxxSeptember 1997) and Rob Swart and
his colleagues from RIVM for organizing and hosting the meeting.
We have achieved a lot in the three short days as you will soon also see
from the minutes. The minutes of the meeting will be forwarded to you later this
week
together with the revised SRES work plan that we have discussed during the
meeting.
Sorry that it took a while longer this time for the completion of the minutes,
but I hope that they will refresh you memory about the outcome of the meeting.
Erik Haites just e-mailed that he returned from the IPCC plenary meeting in
Maldives and that the new IPCC Bureau has been appointed. It consists of
30 members: the Chair (Bob Watson), 5 Vice-Chairs (R. Pachuari (India), R.
Odingo (Kenya), G. Meira Filho (Brazil), Y. Izrael (Russia), K. Seiki
(Japan), and 8 Bureau members for each of the three Working Groups. The
Bureau for Working Group III (responsible for SRES) is B. Metz
(Netherlands), O. Davidson (Sierra Leone), E. Jochem (Germany), M.
Munasinghe (Sri Lanka), E. Calvo (Peru), R. Madruga (Cuba), R.T.M.
Sutamihardja (Indonesia), and L. Lorentsen (Norway).
Best regards,
Naki
<center>Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Project Leader
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria | Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx</center>

</x-rich>

Emails
To: "m.hulme" <[email protected]>, "Martin.OConnor"
<[email protected]>, alcamo <[email protected]>, jaeger
<[email protected]>, dvm <[email protected]>, eepriia <[email protected]>,
hourcade <[email protected]>, "t.jackson" <[email protected]>, jaeger
<[email protected]>, vertic <[email protected]>, "pier.vellinga"
<[email protected]>, pweingart <[email protected]>, fy1
<[email protected]>
Subject: Copy of: climate: Japanese proposal
Date: Tue, 7 Oct 1997 14:55:31 +0200
From: Andrew Kerr <[email protected]>

Sender: Andrew Kerr <[email protected]>
To: Peter DEBRINE <[email protected]>,
Patricia DESMARES <[email protected]>,
Cherry FARROW <[email protected]>, Elizabeth FOLEY <[email protected]>,
Karen GILL <[email protected]>,
"Merylyn HEDGER (wwfnet)" <[email protected]>,
Martin HILLER <[email protected]>, Aldo IACOMELLI
<[email protected]>,
Lars Georg JENSEN <[email protected]>, Steve JUDD <[email protected]>,
Paolo LOMBARDI <[email protected]>, Tony LONG <[email protected]>,
Sten LUNDBERG <[email protected]>, Nick MABEY <[email protected]>,
Adam MARKHAM <[email protected]>,
Gisele McAULIFFE <[email protected]>,
Konrad MEYER <[email protected]>,
Stefan MOIDL <[email protected]>, Lee POSTON <[email protected]>,
Michael RAE <[email protected]>,
Andrea RIES <[email protected]>,
Sible SCHONE <[email protected]>, Stephan SINGER <[email protected]>,
Marc van den TWEEL <[email protected]>,
Marijke UNGER <[email protected]>,
Koichi WATANABE 2 <[email protected]>,
Helge WEINBERG <[email protected]>
Cc: Michael Brown <[email protected]>,
"Kornelis BLOK (ecofys)" <[email protected]>,
"Kornelis BLOK (univ)" <[email protected]>,
Yvo de BOER <[email protected]>,
Michael BROWN <[email protected]>,
Renate CHRIST <[email protected]>,
Kirsty HAMILTON <[email protected]>,
Kirsty HAMILTON 2 <[email protected]>,
Sabri ZAIN <[email protected]>, Bill HARE 1 <[email protected]>,
Bill HARE 2 <[email protected]>,
Martina KRUEGER <[email protected]>,
Penehuro LEFALE <[email protected]>,
Yasuko MATSUMOTO <[email protected]>,
Paul METZ <[email protected]>, Katarina PANJI <[email protected]>,
"Michel RAQUET (dg11)" <[email protected]>,
Holger ROENITZ <[email protected]>,
Cornelia SIDLER <[email protected]>,
"Ad van WIJK (ecofys)" <[email protected]>,
"Ad van WIJK (uu)" <[email protected]>
Subject: climate: Japanese proposal
Message-ID: <[email protected]>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
From: Andrew Kerr, WWF Climate Change Campaign

re.: "scandalous" Japanese climate change proposal
Dear All
I am in Japan for the next week. If you need to, you can contact me by
phone at the following numbers:
* Monday - xxx xxxx xxxx(Yurika?s mobile)
* Tuesday-Thursday - via WWF Japan. Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx; fax: 3xxx xxxx xxxx.
* Friday - Tokyo Grand Hotel. Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
Tomorrow the Japanese government is due to formally announce its emission
reduction proposal for the industrialised world for the Kyoto climate
summit: a maximum of a 5% reduction from 1990 levels for a basket of three
greenhouse gases over the period 2xxx xxxx xxxx. In a second period up to 2017,
industrialised countries would not be obliged to make further reductions.
See below for fuller details and an analysis of the emission
reduction implications for various industrialised nations.
The information has been well-leaked. In a talk to the Foreign
Correspondents Club of Japan last Friday I described the proposal as a
"joke". This was well picked up by the written press here.
Now more details have emerged, the proposal is even weaker than first
thought. We are faxing a press release out this afternoon to Japan-based
agencies and press with WWF?s reaction (see below). You might like to join
in the condemnation of what Japan is proposing and ensure that your country
flatly rejects the proposal.
Japan?s Special Ambassador, Toshiaki Tanabe, is on a world tour canvassing
for the support of other industrialised nations. After visiting Washington
DC he moved on to Hawaii a few days ago for an informal conference
including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US. Today's Yomiuri
Shimbun gave front-page coverage to Australia?s outrage over the stringency
of the Japanese proposal!
Tanabe is moving to Europe for talks in the next few days. It is vital that
European governments reject the proposal in no uncertain terms and urge
Japan to at least support the EU standpoint. (Note: the WWF policies and
measures study for Japan identifies how to cut CO2 emissions 8.8% below
1990 levels by 2005 and 14.8% by 2010 - very similar to the EU position).
It would also be very useful if progressive business groups would express
their horror at the new economic opportunities which will be foregone if
Kyoto is a flop.
Best wishes, Andrew
---
CLIMATE CHANGE: JAPANESE PROPOSAL FOR KYOTO
To be formally announced by the Japanese government, Monday 6 October 1997
Following information is from the Nikkei Journal, 4 October 1997
A. Content of the proposal
1. First period: the five years from 2008 to 2012
Reduction of 5%; Base year: 1990
1) Gases: CO2, methane, Nitrous oxide
2) Target figures will be flexible according to the future energy
situation, changes in industrial structures, etc. But in any case, the
total emission should not exceed 1990 level.
3) Each country's target would be based on emission per GDP, emission per
capita, and population growth rate.
If emission per GDP of 1990 (A) is smaller than emission per GDP of all
countries (B), the reduction rate should be 5%x(A/B)
If per capita emission of 1990(C) is smaller than per capita emission of
all countries (D), the reduction rate should be 5%x(C/D).
If population growth rate from 1990 to 1995 is more than the population
growth rate of all other countries, the reduction target of that country
should put into consideration their high population growth rate.
Banking, Borrowing, Joint Implementaion and Emission Trading schemes should
be introduced with certain conditions.
2. Second period: 2xxx xxxx xxxx
Emission should not exceed the level of the first period.
More sophisticated differentiation scheme should be adopted for the second
period.
B. Implications of the proposal
Resulting emission reduction targets for the five years 2xxx xxxx xxxx, relative
to 1990:
%
Australia 1.8
Czech Republic 5.0
Denmark 2.5
Germany 3.1
Italy 2.5
Japan 2.5
Portugal 1.6
Russia 5.0
Spain 2.2
Switzerland 1.3
UK 3.7
US 2.6
Overall reduction for all industrialised countries: 3.2 %
---
WWF PRESS RELEASE
JAPAN PROPOSAL FOR KYOTO SUMMIT SCANDALOUS, WWF SAYS
KYOTO, JAPAN, 5 October 1997 ? The World Wide Fund for Nature condemned as
"scandalous" the Japanese government?s proposal for reducing greenhouse
gases responsible for climate change, Sunday, and called on industrialised
nations to flatly reject it.
As full details of the proposal emerged over the weekend, it was revealed
that Japan suggests allowing industrialised countries to make extremely
marginal reductions in their emissions by as late as 2xxx xxxx xxxx. In a
second five-year period up to 2017, countries would only be required to
ensure their emissions were lower than in 1990.
"The Japanese plan presents a bleak future for the environment, already
suffering from the serious impacts of global warming including rising
sea-levels, rising sea temperatures, and increased extreme weather patterns
? to name just a few," said Andrew Kerr of WWF?s international Climate
Change Campaign. "The plan is laughable when you consider that some
European nations already have cut their greenhouse gas emissions by several
times more than the amount Japan proposes for emission reductions more than
a decade from now."
According to the just released "WWF State of the Climate" report that
evaluates the global impacts of climate change, a long list of impacts
already are visible today including the destruction of several land and
marine ecosystems in Asia and around the world because they cannot keep up
with the pace of global warming.
The Japanese proposal also proves the government is back-tracking on a
Ministerial Declaration concluded at the 1996 climate summit in Geneva. At
that conference, 130 countries, including Japan, agreed that the Kyoto
Summit should agree on "legally-binding objectives for emission limitations
and significant overall reductions" of greenhouse gases. At the Geneva
meeting, the Ministers recognised that climate change science showed human
activities, primarily the burning of coal, oil and gasoline, are already
affecting the planet?s climate and the impacts would be wide-ranging and
irreversible, posing threats to food supplies, public health and the
survival of many species. Nations also agreed that "significant reductions
in net greenhouse gas emissions are technically possible and economically
feasible".
WWF is calling on industrial nations to cut their carbon dioxide emissions
20 percent below 1990 levels by 2005. A WWF report written by Dr. Haruki
Tsuchiya of the Research Institute for Systems Technology, in Tokyo, (to be
released by WWF later this month) shows that Japan can reduce its carbon
dioxide emissions by nearly nine percent by 2005 and by almost 15 percent
by 2010 without damaging the economy. Policies and measures suggested by
the WWF report would stimulate the economy and help position Japan as a
world leader in the development of new, energy efficient technologies.
"Environmentally, Japan?s plan is worse than no plan whatsoever because it
pretends to legitimise an emissions cut that is so low it will produce no
tangible result in the effort to combat climate change, " said Kerr. "Even
more alarming, it encourages many nations also to cut their emissions by
much less than they now plan. This proposal is an embarrassment for Japan
because it spells disaster for the Kyoto Summit in December which will be
seen as an absolute failure by several European nations and the entire
environmental community if such meagre greenhouse gas emission cuts are
adopted."
The complicated emission-reduction formulae that Japan proposes would
require Japan to make only a 2.5 percent cut in emissions. The United
States, responsible for over one-fifth of world releases of carbon dioxide,
would only need to make a 2.6 percent reduction. Highlighting the
political irrelevance of the Japanese formula, Germany, Denmark and the UK
would have to make reductions of 3.1 percent, 2.5 percent and 3.7 percent
respectively. But Germany already has achieved around half of its national
target of cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 25 percent by 2005. Denmark
is aiming for a 20 percent reduction by the same date and the UK?s target
is a 20 percent cut by 2010.
Contact: Andrew Kerr or Yurika Ayukawa. Mobile tel: xxx xxxx xxxxand
Hearton Hotel, xxx xxxx xxxx.

Emails
From: Joseph Alcamo <[email protected]>

Subject: Timing, Distribution of the Statement
Date: Thu, 9 Oct 1997 18:52:xxx xxxx xxxx
Reply-to: [email protected]
Mike, Rob,
Sounds like you guys have been busy doing good things for the cause.
I would like to weigh in on two important questions --
Distribution for Endorsements --

I am very strongly in favor of as wide and rapid a distribution as
possible for endorsements. I think the only thing that counts is
numbers. The media is going to say "1000 scientists signed" or "1500
signed". No one is going to check if it is 600 with PhDs versus 2000
without. They will mention the prominent ones, but that is a
different story.
Conclusion -- Forget the screening, forget asking

them about their last publication (most will ignore you.) Get those
names!
Timing -- I feel strongly that the week of 24 November is too late.

1. We wanted to announce the Statement in the period when there was
a sag in related news, but in the week before Kyoto we should expect
that we will have to crowd out many other articles about climate.
2. If the Statement comes out just a few days before Kyoto I am
afraid that the delegates who we want to influence will not have any
time to pay attention to it. We should give them a few weeks to hear
about it.
3. If Greenpeace is having an event the week before, we should have
it a week before them so that they and other NGOs can further spread
the word about the Statement. On the other hand, it wouldn't be so
bad to release the Statement in the same week, but on a
diffeent day. The media might enjoy hearing the message from two
very different directions.
Conclusion -- I suggest the week of 10 November, or the week of 17

November at the latest.
Mike -- I have no organized email list that could begin to compete

with the list you can get from the Dutch. But I am still
willing to send you what I have, if you wish.
Best wishes,
Joe Alcamo
----------------------------------------------------
Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo, Director
Center for Environmental Systems Research
University of Kassel
Kurt Wolters Strasse 3
D-34109 Kassel
Germany
Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx

Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx

Emails
From: Ben Santer <[email protected]>

To: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], tbarnett-
Subject: (Fwd) Re: Your Holocene paper with Barnett et al 6.xxx xxxx xxxxpage 255
Date: Tue, 14 Oct 1997 16:17:xxx xxxx xxxx
Dear Dr. Ritson,
Your email to Phil Jones suggests that there are serious discrepancies between
the ECHAM1/LSG power spectrum that I computed for the 1995 Barnett et al.
Holocene paper and the ECHAM1/LSG power spectrum that Curt Covey posted on the
WWW. This is not the case. At the time that Tim Barnett, Phil Jones, Keith
Briffa and I performed the research that is the subject of the Holocene paper,
only 600 years of control run data were available from ECHAM1/LSG. This is
stated on page 256 of the Holocene paper. The first ca. xxx xxxx xxxxyears of this
control integration incorporated a large, non-linear climate drift component.
This was manifested both in globally-averaged temperature and in other climate
variables (see Santer et al., 1995, JGR 100, 10,693-10,725).
Prior to computing the spectrum I removed the overall (i.e., 600-year)

least-squares linear trend. There is still considerable low-frequency variance
in the residuals, in part (but not wholly) due to the non-linearity of the
drift component in the first few centuries. This residual drift explains some
portion of the GFDL-versus-ECHAM1 power discrepancies at timescales of >100
years.
The CMIP project received data from MPI well after the completion of the
research described in the Barnett et al. paper. At that time, I believe that
1,250 years of ECHAM1/LSG control run data were made available. My
understanding is that Curt did not use the first (drift-contaminatedxxx xxxx
xxxxyears
of the ECHAM1/LSG control run when he computed the ECHAM1 spectrum displayed on
the CMIP WWW page. HIs analysis relied on the last 1,000 years of the data.
Not surprisingly, neglecting the first 250 years makes a big difference to the
computed spectrum. This is particularly apparent at low frequencies, and also
in the variance ratio (between periods of 300 and 2 years) that you compute.
I hope this clarifies things. Should you still have residual concerns about our
method of spectral analysis (which is standard and follows Jenkins and Watts),
I'd be happy to provide you with a copy of the program that was used to
generate the spectra.
Sincerely,
Ben Santer
--- Forwarded mail from Phil Jones <[email protected]>
Date: Tue, 14 Oct 1997 10:42:29 +0100

From: Phil Jones <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Your Holocene paper with Barnett et al 6.xxx xxxx xxxxpage 255
David,
I can only suggest you contact Ben Santer who did the
analysis for Table 1. Ben is generally very busy - his
email is [email protected] .
Cheers
Phil
At 01:10 PM 10/13/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:

> Two quick questions about your Fig 1, power spectrum of global mean
>averaged temperature.
>
>1) You don't provide units. I would have expected that
>
> <DT**2> Integral(G(f).df)
>
>would be the normalization with G(f) being the power spectrum and DT the
>RMS variance. Obviously this is not what you used. What are your units?
>
>2) I checked your ECHAM1 results for the ratio of the power spectrum at
>a period of 300 years to the value at 2 years against the posted CMIP
>LLNL power spectrum on the WWW. Aside from units the ratios of CMIP
>and yours appear to differ by a factor of the order of 6. As you are both
>using the same data base(?) and Curtis Covey of LLNL said he used Ben Santers
>program for power spectra this discrepancy seems a litle strange. Who is
right
>or are you both right?
>
>I would check it myself in a matter of day(s) but getting model data bases
>is a bureacratic nightmare.
>
>Dave
>
Dr Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
592xxx xxxx xxxxSchool of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0)
1xxx xxxx xxxxUniversity of East Anglia
Norwich
Email [email protected] NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---End of forwarded mail from Phil Jones <[email protected]>

Emails

To: Tom Wigley <[email protected]>
Subject: Re:
Date: Tue Nov 4 09:42:xxx xxxx xxxx
Tom
please do. Actually I would be interested to know whether Malcolm mentioned these
results to Dave as he was in Krasnoyarsk a few months ago when I showed this
stuff. I will be over in New York in a few weeks to discuss with Ed the
possibility of putting in an NSF/NERC proposal to look at the tree biomass change
question. Also,the initial impetus to redo this stuff was as part of a NERC
project we have running in colllaboration with Ian Woodward - i which we are
inputting high resolution climate data to Dolly to assess the roll of such
variability on carbon uptake
cheers
Keith

>Keith,
>
>Malcolm Hughes was here on Friday to see Dave Schimel about precisely the
>issue you raise. Dave wants to see if he can validate his ecosystem model
>using tree ring data. Sounds as if you already have the data to do this.
>Can I show your e-mail to Dave?
>
>Tom
>
>On Mon, 3 Nov 1997, Keith Briffa wrote:
>
>>
>> Tom
>> thanks for the info. Actually this is a chance for me to to mention that
>> we have for the last few months at least, been reworking the idea of
>> looking in the Schweingruber network data for evidence of increasing tree
>> growth and hence ,potentially at least, evidence of changing tree(read
>> biomass) uptake of carbon.
>> The results are dramatic - not to say earth shattering because they
>> demonstrate major time-dependent changes - but changes that are consistent
>> in different areas of the network. We have regionalised over 350 site
>> collections , each with ring width and density data , age-banded the data
>> so that we look only at relative growth in similar ages of trees through
>> time and recombined the standardisd curves to produce growth changes in
>> each region. Basically growth is roughly constant (except for relatively
>> small climate variablity forcing) from 1700 to about 1850. It then
>> increases linearly by about up until about 1950 after which time young ( up
>> to 50 year old) basal area explodes but older trees remain constant . The
>> implication is a major increase in carbon uptake before the mid 20th
>> century - temperatue no doubt partly to blame but much more likely to be
>> nitrate/Co2 . Equally important though is the levelling off of carbon
>> uptake in the later 20th century. This levelling is coincident with the
>> start of a density decline - we have a paper coming out in Nature
>> documenting the decline . In relative terms (i.e. by comparison with
>> increasing summer temperatures) the decline is represented in the ring
>> width and basal area data as a levelling off in the long-timescale inrease
>> ( which you only see when you process the data as we have). The density
>> data do not show the increase over and above what you expect from
>> temperature forcing.
>> I have been agonising for months that these results are not some
>> statistical artifact of the analysis method but we can't see how. For just
>> two species (spruce in the western U.S. Great Basin area and larch in
>> eastern Siberia) we can push the method far enough to get an indication of
>> much longer term growth changes ( from about 1400) and the results confirm
>> a late 20th century apparent fertilization! The method requires
>> standardizing (localized mean subtraction and standard deviation division)
>> by species/age band so we reconstruct relative (e.g. per cent change) only .
>> We have experimented with integrating the different signals in basal area
>> and density(after extracting intra ring ring width and density data where
>> available) within a 'flat mass' measure which shows a general late 20th
>> century increase - but whether this incorporates a defensible relative
>> waiting on the different components (and what the relative carbon
>> components are) is debatable. We now need to make some horrible simplistic
>> assumptions about absolute carbon in these (relatively small) components of
>> the total biomass carbon pool and imlpications for terrestrial and total
>> carbon fluxes over the last few hundred years - and beyond! Without these
>> implications we will have difficulty convincing Nature that this work is
>> mega important.
>> There are problems with explaining and interpreting these data but they are
>> by far the best produced for assessing large scale carbon-cycle-relevant
>> vegetation changes - at least as regards well-dated continous trends. I
>> will send you a couple of Figures ( a tiny sample of the literally hundreds
>> we have) which illustrate some of this. I would appreciate your reaction.
>> Obviously this stuff is very hush hush till I get a couple of papers
>> written up on this. We are looking at a moisture sensive network of data at
>> the moment to see if any similar results are produced when
>> non-temperature-sensitive data are used. You would expect perhaps a greater
>> effect in such data if Co2 acts on the water use efficiency .
>> At 09:30 AM 11/3/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:
>> >Dear Keith,
>> >
>> >Look at Tremblay et al. GRL 24, 2xxx xxxx xxxx(1997) and Dyke et al. Arctic
50,
>> >xxx xxxx xxxx(1997). These papers deal with driftwood in the Arctic over the
past
>> >9000 years. They note that genera can be distinguished, but not species
>> >Hence, they can't say where the wood comes from, North America versus
>> >Europe. Surely cross-dating could do this? May be worth getting in touch
>> >with Dyke et al.
>> >
>> >Tom
>> >
>> --
>> Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia,
>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
>> Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>>
>
>
> **********************************************************
> *Tom M.L. Wigley *
> *Senior Scientist *
> *National Center for Atmospheric Research *
> *P.O. Box 3000 *
> *Boulder, CO 80xxx xxxx xxxx *
> *USA *
> *Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx *
> *Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx *
> *E-mail: [email protected] *
> **********************************************************
>
>

Emails
To: "m.hulme" <[email protected]>
Subject: re: positives and negatives
Date: Wed, 12 Nov 97 15:09:29 CET
Cc: "timothy.mitchell" <[email protected]>
>It would indeed be interesting to poll all of our invitees using a more
>sophisticated
>questionnaire, but this is not what we are about. For example, if you
>disagree
>with the Statement I would be interested to know the grounds of your
>disagreement.
Mike,
Thanks.
I am always worried about this sort of things. Even if you have 1000
signitures, and appear to have a strong backup, how many of those asked did
not sign?
Also, I happen to be of the opinion that the US proposal for Kyoto is too
ambitious. But of course I am thinking of real policies, not of
negotiation-rhetoric.
Finally, I think that the text conveys the message that it is a scientific
defense for the EU position. There is not any. Even DG11 finds a hard to
defend (at least, in the draft version of their attempt -- I don't think the
final version has appeared yet). Whatever you think about long-term goals,
2010 is pretty soon. At the moment, no country has any experience with
serious emission reduction POLICY. Minus 15% is serious, particularly because
of the effort that will be spend on the monetary union and because the UK and
Germany are too optimistic on their baseline emissions. Rash action instead
careful thinking may well run serious, international climate policy deep into
the ground.
Cheers
Richard

Emails
From: Richard Baker <[email protected]>

To: Mike Hulme <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Finalising PRAPROC! 21st November 1997
Date: Mon, 17 Nov 1997 16:59:xxx xxxx xxxx
Mike
> I hope you had my comments from a few weeks ago.
Yes, sorry I've taken so long to reply.
> 1. Overheads: we charge EU projects 20% overheads and these are totally
> acceptable
Yes, you are quite right.
> 2. Budget: I will need to redraft our budget. Please tell me estimated
> start data and for how long the project will run. I envisage our budget
> remaining in the bracket 60-70k ECU
I guess we are looking to April 1998 at the very earliest. I heard that
some SMT projects take up to 2 years to get going even after they've
been approved due to wrangles over the budget. We have 1 million ECU for
3 years....so some project budgets will have to be cut. Yours looks
fine.
> 3. Workplan: I am assuming the basic climate tasks remain pretty much as
> before, namely:
>
> a) 10' gridded monthly climate data for Europe for 1xxx xxxx xxxxlinked to a
weather
> generator that will yield daily data. Key variables: precip., tmin, tmax,
> vapour pressure, sunshine/radiation, wind, wet days, frost days.
Yes, that'll do nicely!
> b) for the world a 0.5deg gridded dataset for 1xxx xxxx xxxxat monthly timesteps
Excellent!
> c) what was decided about very high resolution climate surfaces for 1-2
> regions?
> This was in the original proposal but got dropped I think. Adding this back
> to our work plan would involve extra time and hence resources. How
> important are
> these test 1km (?) resolution datasets?
We've had a problem contacting the Spaniards which is a bit of a blow

because they gave a nice geospatial feel to the project. The Norwegians
are proposing to conduct a high resolution study near Oslo..I think
they'll be interpolating locally collected data. I'll send you their
proposal as soon as I can get it into a little better shape but, in
principle, I think it would be best if you could, at this stage, just
stick to the low resolution work.
> 4. Other EU projects: I suggest you mention my involement in CLIVARA

> which is
> funded through the Environment/CLimate programme of DGXII. This is running
> from
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxand is concerned with mapping and modelling agriculture across the
> EU under 1xxx xxxx xxxxconditions and also under future climate change.
> Co-ordinated
> by Environmental Change Unit at University of Oxford. let me know if you want
> more info. on this.
A brief update to your "partner information" would be great.
> Can you confirm for me which forms I need to get completed? Do you
> have copies to send me or should I get them from here.
I'm putting some in the post for you.
> I shall not be able to be with you in York on Friday, but I am here
> all this week if there are questions.
many thanks..there are sure to be some.
All the very best
Richard

Emails

To: [email protected], [email protected], Klaus Hasselmann
<[email protected]>, Jill Jaeger <[email protected]>,
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Subject: Re: ATTENTION. Invitation to influence Kyoto.
Date: Tue, 25 Nov 1997 11:52:xxx xxxx xxxx(MST)
Reply-to: Tom Wigley <[email protected]>
Cc: Mike Hulme <[email protected]>, [email protected]
Dear Eleven,
I was very disturbed by your recent letter, and your attempt to get
others to endorse it. Not only do I disagree with the content of
this letter, but I also believe that you have severely distorted the
IPCC "view" when you say that "the latest IPCC assessment makes a
convincing economic case for immediate control of emissions." In contrast
to the one-sided opinion expressed in your letter, IPCC WGIII SAR and TP3
review the literature and the issues in a balanced way presenting
arguments in support of both "immediate control" and the spectrum of more
cost-effective options. It is not IPCC's role to make "convincing cases"
for any particular policy option; nor does it. However, most IPCC readers
would draw the conclusion that the balance of economic evidence favors the
emissions trajectories given in the WRE paper. This is contrary to your
statement.
This is a complex issue, and your misrepresentation of it does you a

dis-service. To someone like me, who knows the science, it is
apparent that you are presenting a personal view, not an informed,
balanced scientific assessment. What is unfortunate is that this will not
be apparent to the vast majority of scientists you have contacted. In
issues like this, scientists have an added responsibility to keep their
personal views separate from the science, and to make it clear to others
when they diverge from the objectivity they (hopefully) adhere to in their
scientific research. I think you have failed to do this.
Your approach of trying to gain scientific credibility for your personal

views by asking people to endorse your letter is reprehensible. No
scientist who wishes to maintain respect in the community should ever
endorse any statement unless they have examined the issue fully
themselves. You are asking people to prostitute themselves by doing just
this! I fear that some will endorse your letter, in the mistaken belief
that you are making a balanced and knowledgeable assessment of the science
-- when, in fact, you are presenting a flawed view that neither accords
with IPCC nor with the bulk of the scientific and economic literature on
the subject.
Let me remind you of the science. The issue you address is one of the
timing of emissions reductions below BAU. Note that this is not the same
as the timing of action -- and note that your letter categorically
addresses the former rather than the latter issue. Emissions reduction
timing is epitomized by the differences between the Sxxx and WRExxx
pathways towards CO2 concentration stabilization. It has been clearly
demonstrated in the literature that the mitigation costs of following an
Sxxx pathway are up to five times the cost of following an equivalent
WRExxx pathway. It has also been shown that there is likely to be an
equal or greater cost differential for non-Annex I countries, and that the
economic burden in Annex I countries would fall disproportionately on
poorer people.
Furthermore, since there has been no credible analysis of the benefits

(averted impacts) side of the equation, it is impossible to assess fully
the benefits differential between the Sxxx and WRExxx stabilization
profiles. Indeed, uncertainties in predicting the regional details of
future climate change that would arise from following these pathways, and
the even greater uncertainties that attend any assessment of the impacts
of such climate changes, preclude any credible assessment of the relative
benefits. As shown in the WRE paper (Nature v. 379, pp. xxx xxxx xxxx), the
differentials at the global-mean level are so small, at most a few tenths
of a degree Celsius and a few cm in sea level rise and declining to
minuscule amounts as the pathways approach the SAME target, that it is
unlikely that an analysis of future climate data could even distinguish
between the pathways. Certainly, given the much larger noise at the
regional level, and noting that even the absolute changes in many
variables at the regional level remain within the noise out to 2030 or
later, the two pathways would certainly be indistinguishable at the
regional level until well into the 21st century.
The crux of this issue is developing policies for controlling greenhouse

gas emissions where the reductions relative to BAU are neither too much,
too soon (which could cause serious economic hardship to those who are
most vulnerable, poor people and poor countries) nor too little, too late
(which could lead to future impacts that would be bad for future
generations of the same groups). Our ability to quantify the economic
consequences of "too much, too soon" is far better than our ability to
quantify the impacts that might arise from "too little, too late" -- to
the extent that we cannot even define what this means! You appear to be
putting too much weight on the highly uncertain impacts side of the
equation. Worse than this, you have not even explained what the issues
are. In my judgment, you are behaving in an irresponsible way that does
you little credit. Furthermore, you have compounded your sin by actually
putting a lie into the mouths of innocents ("after carefully examining the
question of timing of emissions reductions, we find the arguments against
postponement to be more compelling"). People who endorse your letter will
NOT have "carefully examined" the issue.
When scientists color the science with their own PERSONAL views or make
categorical statements without presenting the evidence for such
statements, they have a clear responsibility to state that that is what
they are doing. You have failed to do so. Indeed, what you are doing is,
in my view, a form of dishonesty more subtle but no less egregious than
the statements made by the greenhouse skeptics, Michaels, Singer et al. I
find this extremely disturbing.
Tom Wigley
On Tue, 11 Nov 1997, Tim Mitchell wrote:
> Reference: Statement of European Climate Scientists on Actions to Protect

> Global Climate
>
> Dear Colleague,
>
> Attached at the end of this email is a Statement, the purpose of which is
> to bolster or increase governmental and public support for controls of
> emissions of greenhouse gases in European and other industrialised
> countries in the negotiations during the Kyoto Climate Conference in
> December 1997. The Statement was drafted by a number of prominent European
> scientists concerned with the climate issue, 11 of whom are listed after
> the Statement and who are acting as formal sponsors of the Statement.
>
> ***** The 11 formal sponsors are: *****
>
> Jan Goudriaan Hartmut Grassl Klaus Hasselmann Jill J

Emails

To: Stepan,Eugene
Subject: papers/Holocene/etc.
Date: Fri Dec 5 16:12:xxx xxxx xxxx
Dear Stepan and Eugene

I don't know whether you have received your copies of the 1996 issue of
Dendrochronologia yet but in case not I have seen the issue and it looks very
good. Your two papers on Yamal and Taimyr are there and they both look excellent.
Stepan I received receipt for money and the data and photographs your sent . I am
very grateful for all . Thankyou. Again I can only say sorry about the problems of
money transfer.
The first thing I wish to say is that I know we have been unsuccessful with our
recent applications to INTAS and COPERNICUS . However , if you agree , I would
like to resubmit a new proposal to INTAS in March to continue the development of
the long chronologies. I will write it and stress the success todate and the need
to carry on the formal collaboration. What is your joint opinion on this?
The Nature paper on the decline story is now officially accepted and I still hope
it may come out before Christmas or at least shortly afterwards. I will be writing
a story about increasing basal area on the long term as I showed in Krasnoyarsk
and I also intend to submit this to Science or Nature and you will be coauthors on
that. We also have done a lot of work on the growing season degree day
reconstructions and will write up another joint paper on this soon - but I am
trying to get the ringwidth data produced by you two incorporated with the
ringwidth data produced from the density measurements - because Stepan told me
these may be longer and anyway they will help the quality of the ringwidth data
anyway. You may therefore get some messages or questions from Harry (Ian Harris)
who works for me asking about the locations. Please be patient and try to help him
with this if necessay.
Unfortunately, next year I have several major meetings to attend and present our
joint results. Each of these meetings is very important. In March, I must give a
major review paper at the PAGES open Science meeting in London. This must cover
all dendro - or at least the best of it - which of course includes our own work!
Early next year I will ask for the full data sets as they then stand, for Yamal
and Taimyr so that I can try restandardising and calibrating against regional mean
climate data. If there are not likely to be more data than I already have , can
you let me know. Also in March, I will go to Copenhagen for an European Community
meeting of project leaders of projects dealing with Arctic climates. This is the
sort of meeting I must attend and put on a good show if we hope to get further
funding in 1999 onwards. Later in the year there is a big climate conference here
at which I must give a review of dendroclimatic research.
By January , we are supposed to exchange data within the project for possible
research - but with the proviso that nothing can be written about work using
others data without full collaboration and coauthorship. Are you both willing to
let your chronologies as published be released to the rest of the group at that
time?
Finally, I have got permission (provided I can find the money to pay for it) to
have a special issue of The Holocene dedicated to the results (todate) of the
ADVANCE-10K project. It will contain a series of major articles describing each
piece of the work and I wish these to include large ,detailed papers on the Yamal
and Taimyr chronologies , and perhaps a separate paper on the Northern Urals work.
I hope to get a firm committment now from Both of you that you will be prepared to
do this. I would be happy to help with specific ideas and some analysis and
plotting of all Figures and retyping if you wish. The provisional deadline for the
production of the papers would be late summer or autumn at the earliest.
I am of course very keen to continue our collaboration and next year as soon as I
know more about the details of the European Community Framework 5 plan ( which ,
incidently now contains a heading 'Global Change') I will be putting together
another application. I will try my best to include you both as full partners in
this if it is at all possible.
After the Krasnoyarsk meeting I heard nothing about the final decision regarding
an application for a Transect Office in Krasnoyarsk ( at some time someone had
asked me would I coauthor an application) . Has this idea died? Also will there be
a proceedings book arising out of the meeting ? Do I have to prepare something?
Eugene, I have a revised version of the paper you gave me to read some time ago
about the cell growth model work. Do you intend me to send this to
Dendrochronologia or just send the annotated manuscript back to you? I have a
question about meaning that held me up and needs your answer - can I fax you
something?
Finally , - I wish you each and everyone in your laboratories and all your
families the very best christmas and new year .
Keith

Emails

To: "Joseph M. Alcamo" <[email protected]>, "Knut H. Alfsen"
<[email protected]>, Dennis Anderson <[email protected]>, Zhou
Dadi <[email protected]>, "Gerald R. Davis" <[email protected]>,
Benjamin Dessus <[email protected]>, Jae Edmonds
<[email protected]>, (although he cancelled) Joergen Fenhann
<[email protected]>, "Stuart R. Gaffin" <[email protected]>, Henryk Gaj
<[email protected]>, Ken Gregory <[email protected]>, "A. Gruebler"
<[email protected]>, Erik Haites <[email protected]>, William Hare
<[email protected]>, Michael Hulme <[email protected]>, Michael Jefferson
<[email protected]>, Tae-Yong Jung <[email protected]>, Tom Kram
<[email protected]>, Emilio Lebre La Rovere <[email protected]>, Mathew
Luhanga <[email protected]>, Douglas McKay <[email protected]>, Julio
Torres Martinez <dpid@[169.158.128.138]>, Laurie Michaelis
<[email protected]>, Shunsuke Mori <[email protected]>, Tsuneyuki
Morita <[email protected]>, Richard Moss <[email protected]>, "Youssef H.
Nassef" <[email protected]>, William Pepper <[email protected]>, "Hugh M.
Pitcher" <[email protected]>, Lynn Price <[email protected]>, Hans-
Holger Rogner <[email protected]>, Cynthia Rosenzweig
<[email protected]>, "Jim F. Skea" <[email protected]>, Priyadarshi
Shukla <[email protected]>, Leena Srivastava <[email protected]>, Rob Swart
<[email protected]>, "H.J.M. de Vries" <[email protected]>, "John
P. Weyant" <[email protected]>, Ernst Worrell <[email protected]>
Subject: Invitation to the SRES meeting in Berkeley
Date: Tue, 13 Jan 1998 17:50:47 +0100
<x-rich>Dear Colleagues,
I would like to confirm that we will hold the next SRES meeting on 7-8 February
at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in Berkeley, California. Lynn
Price is the organizer of the meeting. Below is her contact information.
Ms. Lynn Price
Energy Analysis Program
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
MS xxx xxxx xxxx, 1 Cyclotron Road
Berkeley, CA 94720
U.S.A.
(xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
(xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
The main purpose of the meeting is to review the work progress of the four
modeling groups that have been involved in first quantifications of the
four storylines. My expectation is that we can harmonize various model
runs into four initial scenarios. Thus, this will be primarily a modelers'
meeting focusing on technical issues, storyline interpretation and
consistency of first quantifications. It will not have the character of a
Lead Authors meeting in the strict sense. It is nevertheless an important
meeting for all modeling groups who have volunteered to quantify
storylines, since this work needs to proceed in order for us to meet our
original timetable and cannot be postponed until the next Lead Authors'
meeting in the spring.
I hope that most of you can attend. Your input would be
valuable in this early stage of modeling work. Furthermore, it would be
good to also take the opportunity of this meeting to review the so-called
zero-order-drafts (ZODs). The deadline for the submission of the final
versions of the ZODs is 15 January (Thursday), so I expect that we will
also have new material to discuss.

Although I realize that this meeting will take place on rather short
notice and not all of you will be able to obtain the necessary approvals
and visas to attend, I nonetheless believe that it is important at this
stage to hold an informal meeting with the four modeling groups. I have
funds available for the four lead authors from developing countries:
Matthew Luhanga, Zhou Dadi, Henryk Gaj, and Emilio La Rovere. As noted
above, a more formal meeting of the complete writing team will be held
sometime in March or April, at which time I hope everyone will be able to
attend.
Please confirm your attendance for the February meeting with me as soon as
possible (this week if you can), so that we can reserve sufficient hotel
space in Berkeley.
Again, for those of you who are working on Zero Order Drafts, please
remember that this Thursday is the deadline for completion. I look forward to
receiving these.
Best Regards,
Naki
<center>Katalin Kuszko
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria | Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx</center>

</x-rich>

Emails
From: P R Shukla <[email protected]>
To: Nebojsa Nakicenovic <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Invitation to the SRES meeting in Berkeley
Date: Wed, 14 Jan 1998 09:10:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: "Joseph M. Alcamo" <[email protected]>, "Knut H. Alfsen"
<[email protected]>, "(although he cancelled) Joergen Fenhann"
<[email protected]>, "Stuart R. Gaffin" <[email protected]>, Henryk Gaj
<[email protected]>, Ken Gregory <[email protected]>, "A. Gruebler"
<[email protected]>, Erik Haites <[email protected]>, William Hare
<[email protected]>, Michael Hulme <[email protected]>, Michael Jefferson
<[email protected]>, Tae-Yong Jung <[email protected]>, Tom Kram
<[email protected]>, Emilio Lebre La Rovere <[email protected]>, Mathew
Luhanga <[email protected]>, Douglas McKay <[email protected]>, Julio
Torres Martinez <dpid@[169.158.128.138]>, Laurie Michaelis
<[email protected]>, Shunsuke Mori <[email protected]>, Tsuneyuki
Morita <[email protected]>, Richard Moss <[email protected]>, "Youssef H.
Nassef" <[email protected]>, William Pepper <[email protected]>, "Hugh M.
Pitcher" <[email protected]>, Lynn Price <[email protected]>, Hans-
<[email protected]>, "Jim F. Skea" <[email protected]>, Priyadarshi
Shukla <[email protected]>, Leena Srivastava <[email protected]>, Rob Swart
<[email protected]>, "H.J.M. de Vries" <[email protected]>, "John
P. Weyant" <[email protected]>, Ernst Worrell <[email protected]>
Naki,
Thanks for the invitation to the SRES meeting.
Given the funds situation at your disposal, I am opting out of attending

the meeting. I would however like to offer any assistance on issues
concerning developing / Asian countries. Specifically, I have data on
structural changes of GDP and energy for countries in Asia-Pacific. The
structural transitions in these countries offer interesting insights and
directions for scenarios. I have passed an analysis of 12 countries to
Tae. The countries include the important economies in Asia-Pacific,
namely China, India, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand,
Pakistan, Bangladesh etc. I think the structural changes in developing
countries is a very vital aspect for specifying future emissions. Also,
well documented and specified information on this shall help the policy
exercises later which shall use our emissions scenarios as reference.
I think the modelling groups may also require some inputs (and insights)
for handling developing country specifications in the models. In the
past we have pointed out several lacunas - such as neglect of
traditional biomass, disequilibrium, informal economy, geopolitical
realities etc. These also influence technological assumptions and
constraints. In fact our scenarios are very well suited to handle some
of these aspects differently. The modellers may have to be advised to
handle these aspects suitably. This is vital since we aim to specify the
emissions regionally.
An another issue I wish to bring to your attention relates to discount

rates. I know your competence on this issue. However, the modelling
difficulties (and paradigm itself) often stop us from using different
discount rates. The persistence of high discount rates in developing
economies is an observed fact. This may not equalize globally during the
next half century (or more). Even if we may not want to have different
discount rates (since this upsets the underlying neoclassical paradigm),
we may just ask the modellers to ensure that the results are not
sensitive to this.
A more interesting issue concerning the discount rates for our scenarios
is that the different futures (scenarios) would have different
associated discount rates. The sustainable development type scenarios
(e.g. B1 scenario) may have lower discount rate than our A scenarios. If
we run all scenarios with same discount rate, this would be a
contradiction. I know there are no easy answers around this since we do
not want to confuse the users of scenarios later on with too many
different parameters. However it may be worth providing different
specifications for important parameters or caveats where we anticipate
contradictions.
Given the recent developments in East Asia, it may be worth to take a

relook at A1 scenario and consider whether the Tiger World would transit
to A1 or A2. This is just an aside.
Wishing you a very happy new year.
P.R. Shukla
**************************************************************
P.R. Shukla, Professor
Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015, India
Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx, Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
Email: [email protected], http://www.iimahd.ernet.in/~shukla
***************************************************************

Emails

Subject: Re: Poster competition
Date: Fri Jan 16 10:26:xxx xxxx xxxx
Frank
I do not recall what Kyrdianov has worked on - sorry. However, Hantemirov has done
outstanding work putting together and as yet preliminarily analysing what wii no
doubt become a world famous sub fossil chronology in the Yamal area of northern
Siberia. Indeed I will feature this work in my presentation.
Frank , an important point requiring your instant help! Some time ago I got a
request to write something for a NERC(?) publication related to my talk in April.
Now I can't find it and desperately need to contact the guy about length and
deadine - which may have passed. Can you help? I know you coordinated with him.
Yes I know I'm a _anker!
Keith
At 10:12 AM 1/16/98 +0100, you wrote:
>Dear Keith,
>
>I'm trying to draw up a short list for the 5 young scientists who will
>receive financial support from UCL. I need to balance them for theme and
>region and it seems that one of them should probably be a former USSR
>dendro-person. I've consulted Gene who points to Hantemirov and
>Kyrdianov as the two most worthy. Do you have any advice? Both abstracts
>look good and Gene thinks highly of each piece of work. seems better to
>get a second opinion from the dendro-world than to leave it open or try
>to resolve the question from a non-specialist perspective.
>
>I look forward to hearing from you,
>
>Cheers,
>
>Frank
>____________________________________________
>Frank Oldfield
>
>Executive Director
>PAGES IPO
>Barenplatz 2
>CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland
>
>e-mail: [email protected] *** NOTE CHANGE ***
>
>Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx; Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>http://www.pages.unibe.ch/pages.html
>

Emails
From: GERNER THOMSEN <[email protected]>

To: Keith Briffa <[email protected]>
Subject: Ph.D. in Sweden
Date: Mon, 19 Jan 1998 06:15:55 +0100
Reply-to: gerner <[email protected]>
Dear Keith!
I contacted Hakan Grudd last week. He is also positive about a Ph.D. for me
in Stockholm.
I have tried to make a formulation of a project. Please, read it and let me
know what you think. Maybe the project is overlapping with that of Grudd or
maybe you have better ideas. It could also be that I have misunderstood
some points.
I have sent the project formulation to Schweingruber, Grudd and Kalen. I
send it to Schweingruber because I already contacted him last week (before
I got the message from you). He is also interested in the project and
anyway he will get involved if I am going to train in Birmensdorf.
Best regards from:
Gerner Thomsen
Description of project
1. Background
Dendroclimatology can be defined as the use of tree rings to study and
reconstruct past and present climate (Kaennel & Schweingruber, 1995).
Global average surface temperatures have risen by 0.3-0.6

Emails
From: Lynn Price <[email protected]>

To: Nebojsa Nakicenovic <[email protected]>
Subject: Confirmation of Attendance for Next IPCC SRES Meeting
Date: Tue, 20 Jan 1998 12:42:xxx xxxx xxxx(PST)
Reply-to: Lynn Price <[email protected]>
Cc: "Joseph M. Alcamo" <[email protected]>, "Knut H. Alfsen"
<[email protected]>, Joergen Fenhann <[email protected]>, "Stuart R.
Gaffin" <[email protected]>, Henryk Gaj <[email protected]>, Ken Gregory
<[email protected]>, "A. Gruebler" <[email protected]>, Erik
Haites <[email protected]>, William Hare <[email protected]>, Michael Hulme
<[email protected]>, Michael Jefferson <[email protected]>, Tae-Yong
Jung <[email protected]>, Tom Kram <[email protected]>, Emilio Lebre La Rovere
<[email protected]>, Mathew Luhanga <[email protected]>, Douglas McKay
<[email protected]>, Julio Torres Martinez <dpid@[169.158.128.138]>,
Laurie Michaelis <[email protected]>, Shunsuke Mori
<[email protected]>, Tsuneyuki Morita <[email protected]>, Richard Moss
<[email protected]>, "Youssef H. Nassef" <[email protected]>, William Pepper
<[email protected]>, "Hugh M. Pitcher" <[email protected]>, Lynn Price
<[email protected]>, Hans-Holger Rogner <[email protected]>, Cynthia
Rosenzweig <[email protected]>, "Jim F. Skea" <[email protected]>,
Priyadarshi Shukla <[email protected]>, Leena Srivastava <[email protected]>,
Rob Swart <[email protected]>, "H.J.M. de Vries"
<[email protected]>, "John P. Weyant" <[email protected]>, Ernst
Worrell <[email protected]>, [email protected], [email protected],
Hi everyone,
I need to have a firm number of attendees by the end of the day tomorrow
(Wednesday January 21st) in order to hold rooms at the hotel. At the end
of this e-mail I have listed the information that I currently have
regarding who is planning to attend, who is not planning to attend, and
who has not responded.
I will hold a room for each of the people listed below as attending
unless I hear otherwise from you.
If you are in the list of people who have not yet responded and you plan
to attend, please let me know ASAP.
If I have not heard from you by the end of the day tomorrow I will assume
that you will make your own arrangements for accommodations.
For those of you who want me to hold a room for you, I will send
information on how to make your reservations in a day or so.
Thanks,
Lynn
*************************************
Lynn Price
1 Cyclotron Road, MS xxx xxxx xxxx
Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
(5xxx xxxx xxxx
fax (5xxx xxxx xxxx
*************************************
Confirmed as attending:
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Zhou Dadi
Stuart Gaffin
Henryk Gaj
Ken Gregory
Arnulf Gruebler
Erik Haites
Tae-Yong Jung
Emilio Lebre La Rovere
Alan Manne
Tsuneyuki Morita
Richard Moss
Hugh Pitcher
Rich Richels
Rob Swart
H.J.M. de Vries
Ernst Worrell
Not attending:
Knut Alfsen
Dennis Anderson
Joergen Fenhann
Laurie Michaelis
Priyadarshi Shukla
Jim Skea
Have not responded:

Joseph Alcamo
Ged Davis
Benjamin Dessus
Jae Edmonds
William Hare
Michael Hulme
Michael Jefferson
Tom Kram
Mathem Luhanga
Douglas McKay
Julio Torres Martinez
Shunsuke Mori
Youssef Nassef
William Pepper
Hans-Holger Rogner
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Leena Srivastava
John Weyant

Emails

Subject: Re: New MAGICC/SCENGEN
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 15:48:xxx xxxx xxxx(MST)
Reply-to: Tom Wigley <[email protected]>
Cc: [email protected], [email protected]
Mike,
Thanks for the quick response. Responses to responses follows....
(1) I tried the composite GHG plus UIUC SUL on Norm's machine, in just
the way you said. However, the results for the USA seem to be identical
to those using *only* UIUC GHG input. I'll try again.
(2) You are right in saying one shouldn't scale GHG patterns by
GHG+SUL dTs. However, to be strictly consistent one should never allow
GHG patterns to be used alone. So you are *not* being consistent if you
allow this---which you do. The point then is to minimize the extent of
the inconsistency.
It is unarguably correct that the global-mean temperature to use

is the one containing all forcings (i.e., column 6 in *DRIVE.OUT). The
choice then is what pattern(s) to use. If we had no SUL information, we
would have to use GHG patterns; as in the original SCENGEN. Scaling these
with the MAGICC GHG output would give both incorrect patterns and
incorrect global-mean warming. Scaling with column 6 at least gets the
global-mean warming correct (within MAGICC uncertainties). You seem to
have chosen to get *both* things wrong, instead of just the patterns.
I can see some logic in your method; I just think (strongly) that
it is wrong. At the very least, it will be confusing to the user.
If the user selects only GHG model patterns, then won't they wonder why
the global-mean temperature is inconsistent with MAGICC? To take an
extreme case, suppose the full dT is 2degC and the GHG-alone dT is 3degC.
Is it better to scale an approximate pattern (i.e., the GHG pattern) by
2degC or 3degC? In my view, GHG scaled by 2degC would be much closer to
GHG+SUL scaled by 2degC than GHG scaled by 3degC. Surely the real issue
(given that it is impossible to be entirely consistent in this case) is to
get a result that is as close to the 'right' result as possible. I feel
quite sure that scaling by column 6 is best on this basis---especially
given that the patterns are much more uncertain than the global-means. I
think this is absolutely beyond doubt.
The bottom line here is that consistency is impossible if one uses
only GHG patterns. Column 6 was included deliberately, and after some
thought (along the lines noted above).
Of course, it is possible to get column 6 results by adding

columns 2, 3, 4 and 5 as they now stand (and as they are in the version
that you have). However, one cannot do this with the correct *raw*
column 3, 4, and 5 output because of the nonlinear direct forcing effect.
It just happens that, in your version, I 'faked up' column 5 as the
difference between column 6 and the sum of columns 2, 3 and 4. I did this
simply to get the code working; but (as you now know) I never got around
to fixing it up until now. In the latest version, column 6 is again equal
to the sum of columns 2, 3, 4 and 5 because I scale columns 3, 4 and 5 to
ensure that this is so.
(3) Re HadCM2, again it is impossible to be consistent. What I said

before is that the reason for adding these results is simply to make them
readily available. I do *not* advocate using them in combination with any
other model results. It is, I believe, perfectly reasonable to scale
these results with column 6 data. Of course, this 'hides' an assumption
about the relative magnitudes of the GHG and SUL components---i.e., it
assumes that the HadCM2 relative magnitudes are okay. The point of
scaling, however, is to account for other factors that change the
global-mean temperature relative to HadCM2 results, such as different
sensitivities.
I agree with you that it would not be an efficient use of time

splitting the HadCM2 SUL results into GHG and 'aerosol' component
patterns. The whole point of the sulphate part of SCENGEN is to look at
the influence of different SO2 emissions patterns. Splitting up HadCM2
wouldn't help here at all.
I also think it would be valueless to hardwire HadCM2 dT results

into SCENGEN---again, this would defeat the purpose of including these
results. It would introduce an additional inconsistency; since HadCM2
patterns change with time, it would not be logical to scale the 2xxx xxxx xxxx
pattern with (e.g.xxx xxxx xxxxdT. Of course, you could argue that it is
illogical to scale this pattern with (e.g.xxx xxxx xxxxdT from MAGICC; but
this is a different issue that I don't think is worth discussing at this
time.
(4) Thanks for explaining the UIUC 'other data' problem. I will ask
Michael whether he can provide full global fields for the other variables,
since it really would be valuable to include them. If he can give us
these data, could you add them to SCENGEN? (re this, see below)
(5) I appreciate your problems with Olga and Mike Salmon. As far as I
can see, incorporating the revised MAG.FOR code into MAGICC/SCENGEN
shouldn't be too difficult. I can, however, get hold of some money to pay
for some of Mike's time to do other work---perhaps $5000 or so. Can we
set something up? The contractual side would be easy---just a matter of
agreeing a brief statement of work, and having CRU send a bill. If this
is useful and possible, then can you check it out with Mike and Trevor?
Cheers,
Tom
On Mon, 9 Feb 1998, Mike Hulme wrote:
> Tom,
>
> Got your fax and email. Five responses:
>
> 1. UIUC SUL results *can* be combined with any GHG pattern (or
> combination). Simply click on the relevant GCMs in the GCMs menu. You can
> choose all 15 GHG patterns and also the UIUC SUL pattern simultaneously if
> you want. Not sure how you missed this one.
>
> 2. We do *not* allow GHG patterns to be scaled by GHG+SUL dTs from MAGICC
> (what you call 'global sulphate'); i.e., we never use column 6 in the
> *DRIVE files. We always follow the 'disaggregated sulphate' route by using
> columns 2, 3, 4 and 5. I still maintain it is not correct to scale GHG
> patterns by a global dT that results from GHG+SUL forcing. The way we have
> designed SCENGEN is so that the choice of what columns in *DRIVE to use is
> governed by what GCMs are selected in the GCMs menu. If only GHG patterns
> are chosen we use column 2. If only SUL patterns are chosen we use columns
> 3, 4 and 5 with the appropriate weightings applied (i.e., we have three
> UIUC SUL pattern files corresponding to the three SCENGEN regions,
> re-combined of course from Schlesinger's six original regions). If *both*
> GHG and SUL patterns are chosen then we combine the various patterns using
> columns 2, 3, 4 and 5. You will see that the global dT displayed in red on
> the main screen changes in keeping with these selections (i.e., GHG only,
> SUL only or GHG+SUL).
>
> If we allowed GHG patterns to be scaled by dTs from MAGICC that resulted
> from GHG and SUl forcing I believe that we break the consistency of our
> method. Column 6 is therefore redundant and serves only to check the
> summing of the other columns.
>
> 3. This parallels an earlier discussion about using HADCM2 SUL results in
> SCENGEN. Strictly, we should not use them since they are SO2 pattern
> specific. Allowing the user to scale HADCM2 SUL by a set of dTs resulting
> from *any* SO2 pattern is plainly wrong. A compromise would be to allow
> HADCM2 SUL to be scaled by the dT from the HADCM2 SUL simulation (i.e.,
> hard-wiring these dTs into SCENGEN and using only these if the user wants
> HADCM2 SUL). Of course, other GCM patterns should not then be added to
> this. There is another way of using HADCM2 SUL results more flexibly and
> that is by differencing HADCM2 GHG from HADCM2 SUL (2xxx xxxx xxxx),
> standardising the result according to the dTs from the three SCENGEN
> regions and then treating these standardised HADCM2 SUL only patterns as
> independent aerosol patterns to be used in SCENGEN. This would be my
> approach but again requires more time and effort.
>
> 4. We only include T and P from UIUC for the very good reason that only T
> and P contain complete global fields (at least from the ftp site data).
> The other variables exist only for land areas. Since the UIUC grid is 4
> (lat) by 5 deg and SCENGEN is 5 by 5 we would need to regrid (and the
> longitudes are displaced by 0.5 a box as well which complicates matters).
> Regridding land only grids onto a different land only grid is non-trivial
> (possible, but would take some working at). For example, UIUC have no
> Iceland or Caribbean islands so what do we give to SCENGEN for these boxes?
> We have to tell SCENGEN something since we add other GCMs together.
> Faking up data here is very time-consuming. If UIUC have other fields
> apart from T and P for a full global grid but just not put them on the web
> site then fine, the problem is quite straightfoward. If not, then we have
> a messy problem on our hands.
>
> 5. Points about revised MAGICC code noted and we will have a look at the
> new code when it is here. Please also note that apart from Olga not being
> paid by me now, neither is Mike Salmon. Indeed, Mike's contract is rather
> uncertain again. But I hope I can pursuade him (and Trevor) to keep pace
> with MAGICC changes for all our sakes.
>
> Regards,
>
> Mike
>
> At 19:23 06/02/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:
> >Dear Mike,
> >
> >Some rather urgent SCENGEN issues have arisen from my meeting with Norm
> >Rosenberg, Hugh Pitcher et al. at Battelle. While at Battelle, I had my
> >first chance to look at the new SCENGEN, since I have not had time to try
> >to get it working under NT. (I haven't had time to try your new batch
> >file yet.)
> >
> >The first thing is that you seem to have constrained things so that
> >Schlesinger's sulphate results can only be added to *his* ghg results.
> >This defeats the purpose of the method. The sulphate patterns,
> >appropriately scaled, can be added to *any* (or any combination) of ghg
> >(i.e., CO2 alone) results. I am at a loss to understand why you did this,
> >because it seems to me that the coding should be easier for the more
> >general case. The way it should work is this:
> >
> >First, the user selects the MAGICC output; low, mid, high or user climate
> >output. This determines which file to use to get the normalized pattern
> >weights, LODRIVE, MIDDRIVE, HIDRIVE OR USRDRIVE.
> >
> >The user must then select whether to use global sulphate or disaggregated
> >sulphate. This determines whether to use the last column only in *DRIVE
> >(labeled SUM) to weight the ghg (or composite ghg) pattern (global
> >sulphate case); or to use the second, third, fourth and fifth columns of
> >*DRIVE (labeled GHG, ESO21, ESO22, ESO23) to weight, respectively, the ghg
> >(or composite ghg), region-1 sulphate, region-2 sulphate and region-2
> >sulphate patterns---and then sum these weighted patterns.
> >
> >What you seem to be doing now is to only allow SCENGEN to use
> >Schlesinger's ghg pattern for weighting with the GHG column. It should be
> >trivial to fix this. The ghg (or composite ghg) pattern should be
> >calculated no matter whether the user selects the global or disaggregated
> >sulphate case. You may have switched this calculation off for the
> >disaggregated case---but you *shouldn't*. As I noted above, the coding
> >should be easier for the proper working of the model.
> >
> >You may recall that I said earlier that I think there is still a glitch in
> >the sulphate pattern weights. On looking at the *DRIVE outputs again I
> >still think this is a problem. Have a look yourself and see whether you
> >think the numbers look reasonable or not. Ill check this out further over
> >the weekend.
> >
> >The second thing that came up in the Battelle meeting was the fact that
> >the only data sets for Schlesinger's output seem to be temperature and
> >precipitation. Battelle wants to do some sulphate cases (driving crop and
> >hydrology models with SCENGEN output), and they need the other variables.
> >They are working to a tight deadline, so getting these data into SCENGEN
> >is much higher priority that plugging HadCM2 SUL into SCENGEN. This is
> >why I am going to spend some time (at last!) checking out the pattern
> >weights a.s.a.p. I hope you can help out with these things. The first
> >should be easy---but I realize the second could be both tedious and
> >somewhat time consuming. There is clearly a lot of scope for using
> >SCENGEN to define the pattern consequences of sulphate aerosol forcing;
> >both to look at the implications of different SO2 emissions scenarios and
> >to investigate uncertainties. We can't do this until I've fixed the
> >MAGICC end to get the weights working properly. It is something we could
> >spend some time on (i.e., writing something up for publication) when I'm
> >in CRU in the summer (and/or earlier).
> >
> >Thanks for your help on this. The people at Battelle are very impressed
> >by SCENGEN--as am I.
> >
> >Cheers,
> >Tom
> >
> >
> >
> > **********************************************************
> > *Tom M.L. Wigley *
> > *Senior Scientist *
> > *National Center for Atmospheric Research *
> > *P.O. Box 3000 *
> > *Boulder, CO 80xxx xxxx xxxx *
> > *USA *
> > *Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx *
> > *Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx *
> > *E-mail: [email protected] *
> > **********************************************************
> >
> >
>
**********************************************************
*Tom M.L. Wigley *
*Senior Scientist *
*National Center for Atmospheric Research *
*P.O. Box 3000 *
*Boulder, CO 80xxx xxxx xxxx *
*USA *
*Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx *
*Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx *
*E-mail: [email protected] *
**********************************************************

Emails
To: Joseph Alcamo <[email protected]>, Knut Alfsen <[email protected]>,
Benjamin Dessus <[email protected]>, Dennis Anderson
<[email protected]>, Zhou Dadi <[email protected]>, Gerald Davis
<[email protected]>, Benjamin Dessus <[email protected]>, Bert
de Vries <[email protected]>, Jae Edmonds <[email protected]>,
Joerg Fenhann <[email protected]>, Stuart Gaffin <[email protected]>,
Henryk Gaj <[email protected]>, Kenneth Gregory
<[email protected]>, Arnulf Gruebler <[email protected]>, Erik
Jung <[email protected]>, Thomas Kram <[email protected]>, Emilio La Rovere
<[email protected]>, Mathew Luhanga <[email protected]>, Julio Torres Martinez
<dpid@[169.158.128.138]>, Douglas McKay <[email protected]>, Laurie
Michaelis <[email protected]>, Shunsuke Mori <[email protected]>,
Tsuneyuke Morita <[email protected]>, Richard Moss <[email protected]>,
Nebojsa Nakicenovic <[email protected]>, Youssef Nassef <[email protected]>,
William Pepper <[email protected]>, Hugh Pitcher <[email protected]>,
Lynn Price <[email protected]>, Holger Rogner <[email protected]>, Cynthia
Rosenzweig <[email protected]>, Priyadarshi Shukla <[email protected]>,
James Skea <[email protected]>, Leena Srivastava <[email protected]>,
Robert Swart <[email protected]>, John Weyant <[email protected].>, Ernst
Worrell <[email protected]>
Subject: minutes of the SRES informal modelers' meeting
Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 16:48:49 +0100
Dear Colleagues,
Please find attached the minutes of the SRES informal modelers' meeting,
7-8 February 1998 in Berkeley, California. I would like to thank those who
participated in the meeting and Lynn Price in particular, both for the
excellent organization of the meeting and for drafting the minutes. Please
note the deadlines detailed in our
work plan; for those of you completing the next two rounds on model runs
and storylines, this will be especially important. Additional submissions
to the SRES scenario database would be also greatly appreciated. Finally,
if anyone would like to receive a hard copy of the materials we discussed
in Berkeley, please contact Anne Johnson at [email protected]. (The same
material was sent to you by e-mail on January 30).
With best regards,
Naki
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachdraft-minutes1.doc"
Nebojsa NAKICENOVIC
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria | Fax: xxx xxxx xxxxFrom ???@??? Fri Feb 20 10:42:xxx
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Dear Mike,
What is the current state of play regarding definition of
improved sulphur emission scenarios? I have the 'zero-order
draft' by Arnulf Grubler that you sent me at the beginning of
November, as well as a shorter note by Hugh Pitcher. Have there
been more developments since then?
As you can probably guess, this enquiry results from Geoff
Jenkins's visit to Brussels (?) a few days ago. Geoff is now
keen that we should use better emission scenarios than IS92a
and is pressing me for action, even if this means using an
interim scenario that has not yet been agreed by IPCC.
Best regards,
David

Emails
From: Nebojsa NAKICENOVIC <[email protected]>

Benjamin Dessus <[email protected]>, Dennis Anderson
<[email protected]>, Mathew Luhanga <[email protected]>, Julio Torres Martinez
<dpid@[169.158.128.138]>, Douglas McKay <[email protected]>, Laurie
"Richard G. Richels" <[email protected]>, Lynn Price <[email protected]>,
<[email protected]>, Priyadarshi Shukla <[email protected]>, James Skea
<[email protected]>, Leena Srivastava <[email protected]>, Robert Swart
<[email protected]>, Robert Watson <[email protected]>, John Weyant
<[email protected].>, Ernst Worrell <[email protected]>
Subject: Next SRES Meeting, week of 27 April in Washington
Date: Tue, 24 Feb 1998 19:01:16 +0100
Dear Colleagues,
I am writing to let you know that the next IPCC-SRES Full Authors meeting
will be held the week of 27 April 1998 (instead the week of 6 April) in
Washington, D.C. Bob Watson of
the IPCC will attend. The exact dates during that week are not yet fixed,
but I expect that we will have a full authors meeting for two days,
preceded by a two-day modelers meeting. Please let me know soon--today if
possible--whether you will be available during this week; it is critical
that we finalize the dates early so there will be sufficient time to ensure
funding for our colleagues from developing countries who need IPCC support.
I look forward to hearing from you very soon.
Best regards,
Naki
Prof. Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Project Leader
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria | Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx

Emails

To: [email protected] (L.Kitaev)
Subject: Re: for Proff.A.Krenke, Moscow
Date: Fri Feb 27 14:56:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: eugene,stepan
Dear Prof. Krenke

I am happy to submit the proposal from here or to be associated with it in
collaboration with our ongoing tree-ring development work ( with Fritz
Schweingruber, Eugene Vaganov and Stepan Shiyatov) but you will have to take the
initiative in writing and organising the proposal. I am very tied up with meetings
and I have to write and submit another INTAS proposal with the people I mentioned
to continue development and analysis of the long chronologies at Yamal and Taimyr.
The others need not be listed if you do not wish but I would ask you to discuss
with Prof. Vaganov how he sees this being balanced with his priorities and our
ongoing work. We will use our own transfer function approach ( in our ADVANCE
European project ) to reconstruct circulation in summer based only on the tree-
ring data but this is no worry for you. If you can get the draft to me soon - with
details of all participants and money I will then look at it and revise and submit
as you wish.If this is to happen you must take the initiative of putting it
together.
please let me know what you intend as soon as possible. I am here only for one
more week!
Keith
At 09:56 AM 2/24/98 +0300, you wrote:

>
>
>Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachBRIFFA2.TXT"
>

Emails

Dennis Anderson <[email protected]>, Zhou Dadi <[email protected]>,
Gerald Davis <[email protected]>, Benjamin Dessus
<[email protected]>, Bert de Vries <[email protected]>, Jae
Edmonds <[email protected]>, Joerg Fenhann <[email protected]>,
Stuart Gaffin <[email protected]>, Henryk Gaj <[email protected]>, Kenneth
Gregory <[email protected]>, Arnulf Gruebler <[email protected]>,
Erik Haites <[email protected]>, William Hare <[email protected]>, Michael
Hulme <[email protected]>, Michael Jefferson <[email protected]>, Tae-
Yong Jung <[email protected]>, Thomas Kram <[email protected]>, Emilio La
Rovere <[email protected]>, Mathew Luhanga <[email protected]>, Julio Torres
Martinez <dpid@[169.158.128.138]>, Douglas McKay <[email protected]>,
Laurie Michaelis <[email protected]>, Shunsuke Mori
<[email protected]>, Tsuneyuke Morita <[email protected]>, Richard Moss
<[email protected]>, Nebojsa Nakicenovic <[email protected]>, Youssef Nassef
<[email protected]>, William Pepper <[email protected]>, Hugh Pitcher
<[email protected]>, "Richard G. Richels" <[email protected]>, Lynn
Price <[email protected]>, Holger Rogner <[email protected]>, Cynthia
Robert Swart <[email protected]>, Robert Watson <[email protected]>,
John Weyant <[email protected].>, Ernst Worrell <[email protected]>
Subject: Tentative Attendance of IPCC SRES Meeting, xxx xxxx xxxxApril 1998
Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 15:30:22 +0100
Dear Colleagues,
Thank you for your prompt response to my recent e-mail message regarding
the next IPCC SRES meeting. I am glad to hear that so many of you will be
able to attend, since this will be a very important discussion. The plan is
to hold the modelers' meeting on April 27 and 28, followed by the full
authors' meeting on April 29 and 30.
Below is a list of those who are planning to attend:
Joseph Alcamo <[email protected]>

Dennis Anderson <[email protected]>
Zhou Dadi <[email protected]>
Gerald Davis <[email protected]> (part of the meeting)
Bert de Vries <[email protected]>
Jae Edmonds <[email protected]>
Joerg Fenhann <[email protected]>
Stuart Gaffin <[email protected]>
Henryk Gaj <[email protected]>
Kenneth Gregory <[email protected]>
Arnulf Gruebler <[email protected]>
Erik Haites <[email protected]>
Michael Hulme <[email protected]>
Tae-Yong Jung <[email protected]>
Mathew Luhanga <[email protected]>
Julio Torres Martinez <dpid@[169.158.128.138]>
Laurie Michaelis <[email protected]> (part of the meeting)
Tsuneyuke Morita <[email protected]>
Richard Moss <[email protected]>
Nebojsa Nakicenovic <[email protected]>
Youssef Nassef <[email protected]>
Hugh Pitcher <[email protected]>
Lynn Price <[email protected]>
Holger Rogner <[email protected]> (strong possibility)
Priyadarshi Shukla <[email protected]>
Leena Srivastava <[email protected]>
Robert Swart <[email protected]> (strong possibility)
Ernst Worrell <[email protected]>
I will be in touch with additional details in the coming weeks.
Best regards,
Naki

Emails
From: Anne JOHNSON <[email protected]>

Martinez <[email protected]>, Bert Metz <[email protected]>, Douglas McKay
<[email protected]>, Laurie Michaelis <[email protected]>,
Shunsuke Mori <[email protected]>, Tsuneyuke Morita <[email protected]>,
Richard Moss <[email protected]>, Nebojsa Nakicenovic <[email protected]>,
Youssef Nassef <[email protected]>, William Pepper <[email protected]>,
Hugh Pitcher <[email protected]>, Lynn Price <[email protected]>, Rich
Richels <[email protected]>, Holger Rogner <[email protected]>, Cynthia
Robert Swart <[email protected]>, Robert Watson <[email protected]>,
John Weyant <[email protected].>, Ernst Worrell <[email protected]>
Subject: ZOD attached
Date: Wed, 04 Mar 1998 16:37:37 +0100
Dear Colleagues:
Naki has asked me to send you the attached IPCC Zero Order Draft by Dennis
Anderson on the influence of social and economic policies on future carbon
emissions. It is an updated version of the ZOD presented at the Berkeley
SRES meeting. The attachment is missing the last three charts, but these
will be available in time for the Washington, D.C. meeting. If you have
any comments, please send them directly to Dennis Anderson:
[email protected]
I have attached the ZOD in both rich text and MS Word formats.
Regards,
Anne Johnson
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachanderson.doc"
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachanderson.rtf"
Anne JOHNSON
IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
E-Mail: [email protected]
Phone : xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax : xxx xxxx xxxx

Emails
From: Padruot Nogler <[email protected]>

Subject: From Rashit Hantemirov
Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 14:05:21 +0100
Dear Keith,
I am in Birmensdorf now and will stay here until March 20s.

As far as I know Stepan Shiyatov has to translate the proposal
into Russian because of this year there are two possibility to get grant.
The one is just INTAS competition and other is joint INTAS-RFBR (Russian
Foundation for Basic Researches) ones with the same requirements and
grant amounts. For second one we have to submit russian version to RFBR.
If proposal will reject by RFBR it will be automatically submit for
INTAS competition.
Attached file is the ring-width series of subfossil (first

letter is L in series number) and living larches from Yamal,
used for mean chronology developing (best or the only ones for
corresponding period).
Best regards,
hope to see you in London next month,
Rashit Hantemirov
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachAB-XVII.RWM"

Emails

Martinez <[email protected]>, Douglas McKay <[email protected]>, Laurie
Lynn Price <[email protected]>, Rich Richels <[email protected]>, Holger
Rogner <[email protected]>, Cynthia Rosenzweig <[email protected]>,
Priyadarshi Shukla <[email protected]>, James Skea <[email protected]>,
Leena Srivastava <[email protected]>, Robert Swart <[email protected]>,
Robert Watson <[email protected]>, John Weyant <[email protected].>, Ernst
Worrell <[email protected]>
Subject: new IPCC-SRES Zero Order Draft
Date: Tue, 10 Mar 1998 13:20:19 +0100
Dear Colleagues:
I am sending you a copy of Ged Davis' IPCC-SRES Zero Order Draft on

storylines and scenarios. The text is appended below, but I am also
attaching versions in MS Word and in Rich Text formats so that you can
better view the graphics.
Please send any comments directly to Ged Davis at
[email protected]
Regards,
Anne Johnson
****************************************************************************
******
Zero Order Draft
IS99
Storylines and Scenarios
February, 1998
Ged Davis et al
For Comment Only

Draft Paper for the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
*********************************
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Scenarios - overview
3. Golden Economic Age (A1)
4. Sustainable Development (B1)
5. Divided World (A2)
6. Regional Stewardship (B2)
7. Scenario comparisons
8. Conclusions
Appendix 1: Scenario quantification
1. Introduction
The IS99 scenarios have been constructed to explore future developments in

the global environment with special reference to the production of GHGs.
These scenarios are being developed in three phases:
- Phase 1: the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) team is
preparing a set of scenarios for wide public discussion, which is the
subject of this note,
- Phase 2: the scenarios will be placed on the World Wide Web, subject to
public scrutiny, and suggestions for relevant modification of the scenarios
will be sought,
- Phase 3: the scenarios will be finalised for peer review, incorporating
suggestions received during the public review, by April 1999.
Phase 1 centred on a facilitated open process for Lead Authors at workshops
in Paris, Vienna and Utrecht. The scenarios developed allow for a broad
range of GHG emissions and provide a basis for reflection on policy.
1.1 What are scenarios?

Scenarios are pertinent, plausible, alternative futures. Their pertinence,
in this case, is derived from the need for climate change modelers to have
a basis for assessing the implications of future possible paths for
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs). Their plausibility is tested by peer
review, in an open process, which includes their publication on the World
Wide Web.
There are clearly an infinite number of possible alternative futures to
explore. We have consciously applied the principle of Occam's Razor ,
seeking the minimum number of scenarios to provide an adequate basis for
climate modelling and challenge to policy makers. The alternative futures
constructed are not, and cannot be, value free since like any work they
self-evidently reflect the team's view of the possible. The scenarios
should not be construed as being desirable or undesirable in their own
right and have been built as descriptions of possible, rather than
preferred, developments. There can be no objective assessment of the
probability of the scenarios, although in the prevailing zeitgeist some
will appear to individuals to be more likely than others. Scenarios are
built to clarify ignorance rather than present knowledge -- the one thing
we can be sure of is that the future will be very different from any of
those we describe!
2. Scenarios - overview
2.1 Scenarios: key questions and dimensions

Developing scenarios for a period of one hundred years is a relatively new
field. Within that period we might expect two major technological
discontinuities, a major shift in societal values and a change in the
balance of geopolitical power. A particular difficulty is that people are
not trained to think in these time-spans, are educated in narrow
disciplines and our ability to model large-systems, at the global level, is
still in its infancy. Additionally, most databases do not go back much
further than 50 years and many less than that. How best to integrate
demography, politico-economic, societal and technological knowledge with
our understanding of ecological systems? Scenarios can be used as an
integration tool, allowing an equal role for intuition, analysis and
synthesis.
Terminology
Storylines, Scenarios and Scenario Families
Storyline: a narrative description of a scenario (or a family of

scenarios), highlighting the main scenario characteristics, relationships
between key driving forces and the dynamics of the scenarios.
Scenario: projections of a potential future, based on a clear logic and a

quantified storyline.
Scenario family: one or more scenarios which have the same demographic,
politico-societal, economic and technological storyline.
Scenario Classification
Our approach has been to develop a set of four "scenario families". The
storylines of each of these scenario families describes a demographic,
politico-economic, societal and technological future. Within each family
one or more scenarios explore global energy industry and other developments
and their implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions and other pollutants.
These are a starting point for climate impact modelling.
The scenarios we have built explore two main questions for the 21st
century, neither of which we know the answer to:
- Can adequate governance -- institutions and agreements -- be put in place
to manage global problems?
- Will society's values focus more on enhancing material wealth or be more
broadly balanced, incorporating environmental health and social well-being.
The way we answer these questions leads to four families of scenarios:
- Golden Economic Age (A1): a century of expanded economic prosperity with
the emergence of global governance
- Sustainable Development (B1): in which global agreements and
institutions, underpinned by a value shift, encourages the integration of
ecological and economic goals
- Divided World (A2): difficulty in resolving global issues leads to a
world of autarkic regions
- Regional Stewardship (B2): in the face of weak global governance there is
a focus on managing regional/local ecological and equity
Within these scenario families we examine plausible energy industry and

other developments which will contribute to GHG emissions. Although the
storylines cannot have explicit climate change policy measures in them
there are examples of indirect mitigation measures in some of the scenarios.
The scenario quantifications of the main indicators related to growth of
population and economy, the characteristics of the energy system and the
associated greenhouse gas emissions all fall within the range of prior
studies .
3. Golden Economic Age (A1)
This scenario family entitled "Golden Economic Age", describes rapid and
successful economic development. The primary drivers for economic growth
and development "catch up" are the strong human desire for prosperity, high
human capital (education), innovation, technology diffusion, and free trade.
The logic of successful development assumes smooth growth with no major
political discontinuities or catastrophic events. The scenario family's
development model is based on the most successful historical examples of
economic growth, i.e., on the development path of the now affluent OECD
economies. Historical analogies of successful economic "catching up" can
be found in the Scandinavian countries, Austria, Japan, and South Korea.
"Intangible" assets (human capital, stable political climate) take
precedence over "tangible" assets (capital, resource, and technology
availability) in providing the conditions for a take-off into accelerated
rates of development. Once these conditions are met, free trade enables
each region to access knowledge, technology, and capital to best deploy its
respective comparative economic and human resource advantages.
Institutional frameworks are able to successfully sustain economic growth
and also to handle the inevitable volatility that rapid economic growth
entails.
The "intangible" prerequisites for accelerated rates of economic growth

also offer long-term development perspectives for regions that are poorly
endowed with resources or where current economic prospects are not
auspicious, such as Sub-Saharan Africa. There, for instance, fostered
regional trade and capital availability enhance the pull-effects of a
strong South African economy. In other regions, growth may be fuelled by
domestic know-how and high human capital valued at the international
market. An example of this is the thriving software industry of the Indian
subcontinent. In yet other regions, growth could be stimulated by the
expansion of regional economic partnerships and free trade arrangements
(e.g., extensions of NAFTA and the European Union).
The main difference with the historical OECD experience is a certain

acceleration in time and space, (i.e., "leapfrogging") made possible by
better access to knowledge and technology, a consequence of the high-tech
and free trade characteristics of development. Successful catching up
becomes pervasive; all parts of the "developing world" participate, though
with differences in timing. The final outcome is that practically all
parts of the world achieve high levels of affluence by the end of the 21st
century, even if disparities will not have disappeared entirely. The
current distinction between "developed" and "developing" countries will in
any case no longer be appropriate.
As in the past, high growth (a "growing cake") eases distributional
conflicts. Everyone reaps the benefits of rapid growth, rising incomes,
improved access to services, and rising standards of living. The economic
imperatives of markets, free trade, and technology diffusion (i.e.,
competition) that underlie the high growth rates provide for efficient
allocation of resources. Efficiency and high productivity are the positive
by-products of the highly competitive nature of the economy. They also
provide the economic resources for distributive and social measures
required for a stable social and political climate, vital for sustaining
high growth rates in human capital, productivity, innovation, and hence
economic growth.
The economic development focus explains its central metric: the degree of
economic development as reflected in per capita income levels (GDP at
market exchange rates as well as at purchasing power parity rates). The
principal driver is the desire for prosperity, all major driving forces are
closely linked to prosperity levels, with actual causality links going in
both directions. For example, demographic variables co-evolve with
prosperity: mortality declines (i.e. life expectancy increases) as a
function of higher incomes (better diets and affordable medical treatment).
In turn, changes in the social values underlying the fertility transition
also pave the way for greater access to education, modernisation of
economic structures, and market orientation. These are key for innovating
and diffusing the best practice technologies underlying the high
productivity, and hence economic growth, of the scenario.
3.1 Key Scenario Drivers and their Relationships
3.11 Population and Economic Development

High education, stable social relations, and incentives for innovation and
experimentation are the preconditions for productivity increases underlying
rapid economic development in this world-- as a result, social, economic,
and demographic development are highly correlated .
The link between demographic and economic variables in the scenario
corresponds to present empirical observations: the affluent live long and
have few children. High per capita incomes are thus associated with both
low mortality and low fertility. Together, this results in rather low
population growth, characterised in addition by a considerable "greying" of
the population.
This family of scenarios combines high life expectancy with low fertility,
where OECD rates are assumed to stabilize at current (below replacement)
levels, and developing countries follow a similar transition by the
mid-21st century. Fertility rates range between 1.3 to 1.7 children per
woman. Life expectancy can approach some 95 years, with a regional
variation between 80 and 95 years. Global population grows to some 9
billion by 2050, and declines to 7 billion by 2100, the result of continued
below replacement fertility in all regions.
Population ageing results in economic growth rates somewhat lower than
historical experience, especially in the OECD countries. Economic growth
rates slow over time in proportion to the reduction of the potentially
economic active population (age 15 to 65), which decline in some regions to
50 percent compared to the historical average of approximately 70 percent.
For "developing countries", economic growth is based on the most successful

cases of economic "catch up" found in history. The economic growth profile
of Japan after WW II served as a model to delineate the upper bounds of
possible GDP growth for all regions. Consistent with growth theory, GDP
expansion initially accelerates, passes through a peak, in which growth
rates around 10 percent per year can be sustained for several decades, and
then declines. Once the economic and industrial base is firmly established
and the economy matures, growth rates decline with increasing income
levels. This reflects saturation effects and a higher emphasis on quality
rather than quantity at high income levels.
The global economy in the "Golden Economic Age" expands at an average
annual rate of three percent per year to 2100. This is about the same rate
as the global average since 1850 and in this respect may simply be
considered "dynamics as usual". Non-Annex-I economies expand with an
average annual growth rate of four percent per year, twice the rate of
Annex-I economies. By approximately 2030 Non-Annex-I GDP surpasses that of
the Annex-I economies. Per capita income disparities are reduced, but
differences between regions are not entirely eliminated. Non-Annex-I per
capita income reaches the 1990 Annex-I level (14,000 $/capita) by around
2040. By 2100 per capita income would approach 100,000 $/capita in Annex-I
countries and 70,000 $/capita in Non-Annex-I countries.
3.12 Equity
Equity issues are not a major concern in the world, but is rather a
by-product of the high rates of economic development. Existing per capita
income gaps between regions close up in a similar way as between Western
Europe and Japan compared to the US in the 20th century. Disparities
continue to persist between regions, but more so within particular regions.
Nevertheless, the high economic growth rates require a certain degree of
income distribution. Extreme income disparities are found to be negative
influencing factors for economic growth. Additionally, fair income
distribution only assures the large consumer markets and the social
cohesion and stability required for the realisation of high economic growth.
3.13 Settlement patterns/communication

Communication technologies and styles are highly homogeneous and extremely
developed -- rather than a "global village" future, this is one of "global
cities." Existing trends towards urbanisation continue, as cities provide
the highest "network externalities" for the educational and R&D-intensive
economic development pattern underlying the scenario. Regional differences
in settlement patterns persist. They range from fragmented, compact, but
large (i.e., 20+ million inhabitants) cities that depopulate their
respective rural hinterlands in Latin America to urban "corridors"
connected by high capacity communication and transport networks (in Asia).
Regional transport networks include high speed trains and maglevs, which
ultimately fuse short- and long-distance transport means into single
interconnected infrastructures. In some parts of the world high-tech cars
take the place that high-tech trains occupy in other parts.
The large urban agglomerates and the high transport demands of a high
material growth economy generate vast congestion constraints. These are
solved by applying market-based instruments (prices) rather than
regulation. Economic instruments include access and parking fees,
auctioning off the limited number of new car and truck licenses in
megacities, much along the lines of the current stringent Singapore model.
Therefore, even at very high income levels, car ownership rates could be
comparatively low in parts of the world. In extremely densely populated
areas, cars remain a luxury rather than a means of mass transport (viz.
Hong Kong). In areas with lower population density, car densities are high
(+1 car per inhabitant). Car fuels could be either oil, synfuels,
electricity, or hydrogen. Intercontinental transport is provided by
energy- and GHG-intensive hypersonic aircraft fuelled by methane or
hydrogen. They are the physical transport equivalent of the high capacity
virtual communication links of a truly global economy.
3.14 Environmental Concerns/Ecological resilience

Ecological resilience is assumed to be high. In and of themselves,
ecological concerns receive a low priority. Instead, the valuation of
environmental amenities is strictly in economic terms, e.g., a function of
affluence. Non-congestion, clean water and air, and recreational
possibilities in nature all assume increasing importance with rising
affluence, although preferences for environmental amenities may differ
across regions and income levels. For instance, urban air quality and
human health are valued highly even at income levels lower than those
prevailing in England, where stringent air quality measures were introduced
after the "killer smog" of 1952. Reduced particulate and sulphur air
pollution become a matter of major consumer preference at levels of $2,000
- 3,000/capita income in Asia. Altogether, the concept of environmental
quality changes from "conservation" of nature to active "management" --and
marketing-- of natural and environmental amenities and services.
3.2 Scenarios
The core bifurcation (with respect to GHG emissions) of the scenario family
unfolds around alternative paths of technology development in the
agriculture and energy sectors. In the energy sector, the central question
is how to manage the transition away from the current reliance on
conventional oil and gas. In the agricultural sector, the key issue
concerns land productivity.
Alternative technology bifurcations lead to a number of scenarios embedded
and consistent within the overall theme of "prosperity via high
techologies". All scenarios provide the high quantities of clean and
convenient energy forms and diverse, high quality food demanded in an
affluent world. Because technological change is cumulative, it can go in
alternative, mutually exclusive directions, i.e., changes become "path
dependent". Alternative directions unfold around the interrelated cluster
of variables of resource availability and conversion technologies in both
energy and agriculture. For instance, new technologies may enable humanity
to tap either the vast quantities of fossil resources existing in the form
of coal, unconventional oil, and gas with technologies that are both highly
economic, efficient, and clean in terms of traditional pollutants, such as
particulates or sulphur. Alternatively, technological change could unfold
favouring non-fossil technologies and resources, such as nuclear and
renewables.
A similar bifurcation unfolds in the agricultural sector. In one
sub-scenario, only incremental improvements are achieved in farming
practices and land productivity. This is combined with a gradual global
diffusion of meat-based diets. Both of these trends are land- (and
deforestation-) intensive. Alternatively, global agriculture could move in
the direction of genetically engineered, high productivity crops and
"sea-farming," combined with a quality- and health-oriented diet based on
fish and vegetables, both of which are relatively less land intensive. As
a result, GHG emissions range widely even for otherwise similar scenario
characteristics.
3.21 Energy Resources/Technology
Resource availability and technology are tightly interrelated. The "Golden
Economic Age" of high productivity growth results from substantial
technological innovation. Both contribute to economic growth, expansion of
accessible resources, and improved efficiency in resource use. Factor
productivity improvements occur across the board for agricultural land,
materials, and energy. Improvement rates largely follow long-term
historical trends and are entirely technology- and income- driven. Energy
intensity (total commercial and traditional primary energy use per unit of
GDP) improves at an aggregate global rate of 1.5 percent per year.
Improvement rates vary across regions as a function of distance from the
productivity frontier and the turnover rates of capital stock. Ceteris
paribus, improvement rates are higher in regions with currently lower
efficiency and greater than average GDP growth. This assumes no particular
policy intervention or additional price regulation apart from the ones
consistent with a free market environment (i.e. price subsidies are
removed, and full costing principles are established).
Per capita final energy use gradually converges as income gaps close.
Final energy use per capita in non-Annex-I countries would reach
approximately 85 GJ (2 tons of oil equivalent) by 2050 and approximately
125 GJ (3 toe) by 2100, i.e., about the current average of OECD countries
outside North America. Despite improvements in productivity and
efficiency, the high income levels lead to resource use close to the upper
bounds of the scenarios available in the literature. For instance, global
final energy use would increase to approximately 1000 EJ by 2100.
The scenarios developed are a function of the different directions taken by

technological change. The key question is which primary resources may
become economically accessible in the future, and which technologies will
become available to convert these primary resources into the final goods
and services demanded by consumers. In the energy area,
resources/technologies are key variables in determining the timing and
nature of the transition away from currently dominant conventional oil and
gas.
Four pathways are possible:
1. Progress across all resources and technologies.
2. "Clean coal" technologies: environmentally friendly except for GHG
emissions and possible resource extraction impacts.
3. "Oil/Gas": smooth transition from conventional to unconventional oil and
gas, tapping the vast occurrences of unconventional fossil fuels, including
methane clathrates.
4. "Bio-Nuclear": rapid technological progress in non-fossil supply and
end-use technologies, e.g. renewables, such as solar and biomass
combustion, nuclear and hydrogen-fuelled end-use devices, such as fuel cells.
For the scenario quantification, a number of contrasting cases,

characterised by the main energy form used in the second half of the 21st
century, have been evaluated with the aid of formal energy models:
1. The dominance of Non-Fossil fuels -- the "Bio-Nuclear" scenario (A1R).
2. The dominance of unconventional gas, including hydrates, and oil (A1G)
3. The dominance of "Clean Coal" (A1C)
A brief scenario taxonomy is given below.
Scenario
Dominant
Oil/Gas Resource
Technology Improvements
Fuel Availability Coal Oil/Gas Non-fossil
A1R Non-fossil Medium (<50 ZJ ) Low Medium High
A1G Oil/Gas High (>75 ZJ) Low High Low
A1C Coal Low (<35 ZJ) High Low Low
*
Depending on the assumed availability of oil and gas, (low/medium/high) and
corresponding improvements in production and conversion technologies for
coal, oil/gas, and non-fossil technologies, different energy systems
structures unfold. For instance, in the dynamic technology cases, liquid
fuels from coal or unconventional oil/gas resources would become available
at less than $30 /barrel, with costs falling further by about one percent
per year with exploitation of learning curve effects. Non-fossil
electricity (photovoltaics, new nuclear) would become available at costs of
less than 10 mills/kWh ($.01/kWh) and continue to improve further as a
result of learning curve effects. The basic premise of the "dynamic
technology" scenarios is that energy services could be delivered at
long-run costs not higher than today, but with technologies having
radically different characteristics, including environmental. In the event
that such technology dynamics do not materialise, energy costs and prices
would be significantly higher than suggested above -- illustrative model
runs suggest energy demand would be up to 20 percent lower for a fossil
scenario without significant cost improvements .
3.22 Agriculture
In the agricultural sector, two contrasting scenarios of land productivity
could unfold, depending on the nature of advances in agricultural
technologies. However, CO2 emissions from land use changes could range
from 0.5 (low) to 1.5 (high) GtC by 2030 and from -1 to -2 (low) to zero
(high) GtC emissions by 2100. In the latter case tropical forests
essentially become depleted as a result of land-use conversions for
agriculture and biomass fuel plantations. In the former case, land
productivity gains are so substantial that ploughing of marginal
agricultural land is no longer economically feasible and is abandoned,
following recent trends in the OECD. The resulting expansion of forest
cover leads to a net sequestration of atmospheric CO2.
3.23 Scenario Quantification

An initial scenario quantification in terms of population, GDP, energy use,
and CO2 emissions for the three energy resource/technology sub-scenarios is
summarised in Appendix 1 . The global scenario for 2100 is also summarised
in the form of a snowflake diagram. All scenario quantifications are
tentative and subject to revisions.
[Figure: "Snowflake" for A1 scenarios]
3.24 CO2 Emissions

The diverging pathways of resource availability and technological change
characteristic of the three scenarios examined result in a wide range of
annual CO2 emissions: from 10 to 33 GtC by 2100. It is interesting to note
that the emissions of the two "fossil fuel" sub-scenarios, "clean coal" and
"oil and gas," are quite close to each other (33 CtC versus 29 GtC).
Continued reliance on oil and gas, coupled with demand growth, explain the
emission patterns for the oil/gas scenario. Coal is the only fossil
resource available in the "clean coal" scenario. Therefore, over time coal
is increasingly required for conversion into premium fuels such as
synliquids and syngas. This conversion "deepening" leads to a feedstock
premium for coal and increases the market potential of non-fossil fuels.
CO2 emissions are therefore not as high as in traditional coal-intensive
scenarios.
4. Sustainable Development (B1)
The central elements of this scenario family include high levels of

environmental and social consciousness, successful governance including
major social innovation, and reductions in income and social inequality.
Successful forms of governance allow many problems which are currently hard
or difficult to resolve to fall within the competency of government and
other organisations. Solutions reflect a wide stakeholder dialogue leading
to consent on international environmental and social agreements. This is
coupled with bottom-up solutions to problems, which reflect wide success in
getting broad-based support within communities.
The concerns over global sustainable development, expressed in a myriad of
environmental and social issues, results in the eventual successful
management of the interaction between human activities and the biosphere.
While no explicit climate policy is undertaken, other kinds of initiatives
lead to lower energy use, and clean energy systems, which significantly
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Besides cleaning up air quality, there is
emphasis on improving the availability and quality of water.
4.11 Technological Development

High levels of technological development focused on achieving sustainable
development leads to high levels of material and energy saving, innovations
in emissions control technology, as well as labour productivity. The
latter is essential to support the rapid growth in personal income, given
that a major increase in labour force participation is implicit in the
equity assumptions. Technologies tend to be implemented in an industrial
ecology mode, implying a much more highly integrated form of industrial
production than at present. Information technology achieves a global
spread, and is fully integrated into production technologies. Advances in
international institutions permit the rapid diffusion of new technologies
-- R&D approaches two percent of GDP.

Population -- reaches only 9 billion by 2xxx xxxx xxxxdue to a faster than
expected completion of the demographic transition arising from a large
increase of women in the labour force, universal literacy, and concern for
the environmental impacts of high population levels. The potential impacts
of ageing populations which emerge from this low level of population growth
are offset by relatively high levels of immigration, which reduce the
negative impacts of ageing populations on savings and the ability of
societies to adapt and implement new and cleaner technologies.
This world has a faster than expected transition from traditional to modern
economic sectors throughout the developing world. In addition, widespread
education leads to high labour productivity, and high labour force
participation. Migration serves to sustain the size of the labour force in
developed countries, which helps to maintain their growth in per capita
income. Developing countries experience few institutional failures,
enabling them to grow at or near the historical upper bounds of experience
given their per capita incomes.
This yields a world of high levels of economic activity, with significant
and deliberate progress being made with respect to international and
national inequality of income. The current order of magnitude differences
in income between developing and developed countries are reduced to a
factor of two, with moderate growth continuing to occur in OECD countries.
Gross World Product (GWP) reaches $350 trillion by 2100 and average global
incomes $40,000 per capita. Economic development is balanced and, given
the high environmental consciousness and institutional effectiveness, this
leads to a better quality environment, with many of the aspects of rapid
growth being anticipated and dealt with effectively. Active management of
income distribution is undertaken through use of taxes and subsidies. The
composition of final demand will evolve to a mix reflecting lower use of
materials and energy, thus easing the impact of high income levels.
4.13 Equity
In this world there is a preparedness to address issues of social and
political equity. The increases in equity, reflect a shift in values
which, with widespread education, leads to greater opportunity for all.
New social inventions, such as the Grameen Bank's micro-credit schemes, are
a significant contributor to an increase in institutional effectiveness and
equity improvement.
4.14 Communications, Settlement Patterns and Environment

The social innovations and effective governance rest on high levels of
communication, both in a passive (i.e. TV) and active sense. Governance
systems reflect high levels of consent from those affected by decisions,
and this consent arises out of active participation in the governance process.
Settlement patterns arise from design, and tend to reflect a distributed,
compact, city design structure. This results in high amenity levels, and
the careful design and location of these cities results in a lessening of
the natural disasters which plague many cities today. Advanced hazard
warning systems and careful design limit the impact of such disasters.
Low emission technologies, and careful management of land use, preservation
of large tracts of land, and active intervention to counteract the impacts
of imprudent societal actions strengthen the resilience of the ecological
system.
4.2 Scenarios

Energy efficiency innovations, and successful institutional innovations
disseminating their use, result in much lower levels of energy use relative
to historic patterns. The forward-looking nature of societal planning
results in relatively smooth transitions to alternative energy systems as
conventional oil and gas resources dwindle in availability. There is major
use of unconventional natural gas as fuel supply during the transition, but
the major push is towards renewable resources such as solar and wind. The
impact of environmental concerns is a significant factor in the planning
for new energy systems.
Two alternative energy systems, leading to two sub-scenarios, are
considered to provide this energy:
1. Widespread expansion of natural gas, with a growing role for renewable
energy (scenario B1N). Oil and coal are of lesser importance, especially
post-2050. This transition is faster in the developed than in the
developing countries.
2. A more rapid development of renewables, replacing coal and oil; the bulk
of the remaining energy coming from natural gas (scenario B1R).

Per capita incomes in the developed world are close to ___ in 2100, while
average per capita income in the developing world grows from ___ % of the
developed world in 1990 to ____ % in 2100. Energy per unit of output
continues to fall at about historical rates in the developed countries,
resulting in total energy use of ____ EJ in 2100. Rapid spread of
technology from developed to developing countries enables an energy growth
of ___ percent less than GDP, resulting in total energy use of ___ EJ in
the developing part of the world
An initial quantification of the scenarios in terms of population, GDP,
energy use, and CO2 emissions for the two energy resource/technology
scenarios is summarised in Appendix 1. The global scenario for 2100 is
also summarised in the form of a snowflake diagram. All scenario
quantifications are tentative and subject to revisions.
[Figure: "Snowflake" for B1 scenarios]
4.23 CO2 Emissions

The range of carbon in CO2 emissions for the scenarios is 7.5 to 20 billion
tons in 2100, reflecting 3 and 2 percent per year reductions in carbon per
unit of GDP
5. Divided World (A2)
In a retreat from the globalising trends of the previous century, the world
"consolidates" into a series of roughly continental economic regions.
Regions pursue different economic strategies based on the resources and
options available to them. Trade within economic regions increases, while
trade between regions is controlled by tariff and non-tariff barriers to
support the region's economic strategy. High income regions restrict
immigration and impose selective controls on technology transfer to
maintain high incomes for their residents.
High income regions encourage higher levels of education to increase the
productivity of their labour force. They impose restrictions on immigrants,
except skilled immigrants, to keep per capita incomes high. They also try
to impose selective restrictions on technology transfer to maintain the
productivity of their labour force.
Low income regions are only able to increase per capita incomes slowly.
They do not have the resources to invest in educating the labour force or
in research and development. Investment from other regions is constrained.
Thus exports are primarily products manufactured with low cost labour and
some natural resource-intensive products. Population growth is high
relative to high income regions. Income inequality becomes more pronounced
within low income regions and increases between regions.
Regions use non-tariff barriers, such as differences in standards and

labelling requirements, to limit trade. Trade is also dampened by
differences in tastes in products. These factors favour the use of
resources found within each region. Regions that have abundant coal
resources but very limited oil resources, for example, encourage use of
"local" coal by heavy industries and electric utilities while allowing
restricting free imports of crude oil and petroleum products .

Fertility rates vary among regions. North America, Northwest Europe and
Asia experience falling fertility rates and populations. The Middle East,
Africa, and to some extent, Southern Europe and South America see rising
population although the rate of growth decreases. This leads to a shift in
the world population balance from the Indian sub-continent and South East
Asia to the Middle East and Africa by the end of the century. World
population reaches 16 billion by 2100.
Regional economies emphasise self-sufficiency with wide variations in
growth levels. Average global economic growth is relatively low at around
2.5%/year, leading to a GWP of $250 trillion by 2100. Trade across regions
consists primarily of raw materials and semi-finished goods in a relatively
low trust world where dependence on other regions is minimised.
5.12 Government and Geopolitics

National boundaries become less important within the regions as an
increasing share of policy is agreed at the regional level. This allows
considerable cultural diversity within regions. Governmental style is also
diverse across regions. In some, government and religion strengthen their
links, in others, secular democracy is maintained or consolidated.
Education is strengthened in most regions with a deepening understanding of
cultural history and religion. The growing strength of the economic
regions, and their competing economic interests, lead to reduced
international co-operation. Global environmental, economic and social
issues are subject to relatively weak governance. Conflicts between ethnic
and religious groups within economic regions become less violent as a
result of economic pressures on the parties. Where ethnic and religious
violence persists, the groups are excluded from the economic region. Thus
wars occur in the boundary zones between economic regions. Wars may also
occur near regional boundaries for control of scarce natural resources.
5.13 Technology Developments

While underlying science is conducted in all regions an information about
scientific developments are available world-wide, consumption and
production patterns and hence, technology and practices, are determined by
local circumstances.
Research activity increases in all regions; in high income regions due to

the need to increase productivity with limited regional resources and in
low income regions due to the growing size of the population. Restrictions
on transfer of some technologies to other regions is widespread.
High income regions invest heavily in education to enhance labour

productivity. Some high-income regions move towards broad-based education
for a knowledge-based society. Others move towards practical education
(lots of science and engineering) for an advanced industrial society. Low
income regions are not able to invest as heavily in education, but the
levels (and future rates of economic growth, vary significantly.
Technological change is rapid in some regions, slow in others, with

industry adjusting to local resource endowments, cultural characteristics
and education levels.
5.14 Communication and Settlement Patterns

Languages become more uniform within regions, but globally more diverse.
Speakers of the main world languages are fairly evenly split. Computerised
translation eliminates the language barrier to technology diffusion and
economic development.
Urban concentration continues except in Europe and North America, which
move towards larger numbers of smaller cities and towns. Urban shares of
population in other countries rise to current OECD levels by 2020. While
there is free movement within most regions, there is very little migration
among regions. Refugee problems are confined to edge areas, for example,
Baltics and Tibet.
5.15 Environmental Concerns

Environmental management follow pragmatic paths: with rising incomes,
people become increasingly concerned first about urban pollution, then
about regional pollution, finally about global problems. In this world,
global environmental problems are discussed extensively but the will to
tackle them is lacking. Propensity to worry about the environment is
regionally variable. Sulphur emissions are rapidly reduced in South and
South East Asia due to the impacts on agriculture but increase in Africa
with exploitation of coal and minerals there.
5.2 Scenarios
Divided World is explored through a single scenario.
5.21 Resource Availability
Regions try to use their resource endowment for their economic advantage.
Regions with abundant energy and mineral resources use those resources
domestically and to produce exports (surplus to expected long-term needs).
Regions poor in energy and mineral resources will minimise their dependence
on these resources. High-income, resource-poor regions will develop as
service-based, dematerialised economies, while low-income, resource-poor
regions are forced to limit their consumption of resources.
High-income regions without indigenous oil and gas undergo a near-complete

conversion to an energy economy based on nuclear or renewable based
electricity and synthetic gases and liquids by 2050. India and China adopt
these technologies at the largely exhausting domestic coal reserves by
2050. Renewable input, zero waste industry is pioneered in South East Asia
and adopted in Europe, minimising mineral and fossil fuel requirements by
2050. Oil and gas-rich regions (North Africa, the Middle East, Central
Asia, Russia) continue to use fossil fuels but towards 2050 the falling
cost of renewable technology (wind and biomass in Russia, photovoltaic in
the other regions) begins to make them competitive even in these regions

An initial quantification of the scenario in terms of population, GDP,
energy use, and CO2 emissions is summarised in Appendix 1. The global
scenario for 2100 is also summarised in the form of a snowflake diagram.
All scenario quantifications are tentative and subject to revisions.
[Figure: "Snowflake" for A2 scenarios]
5.23 CO2 Emissions

The level of carbon in CO2 emissions for the scenario is 15 billion tons in
2100 as only oil and gas rich regions continue to use fossil fuels.
6. Regional Stewardship (B2)
"Regional Stewardship" is based on a natural evolution of the present

institutional policies and structures. As such it does not incorporate
major geopolitical power shifts or fundamental technological
discontinuities. There is relatively low trust, global agreements are
difficult to reach and the result is 'multiple islands' with inward looking
policies.
This is a world of good intentions, which are not capable of being
implemented. The late 20th century value shift towards environmental
stewardship continues, for example as envisioned in the Cairo and Rio
Programs of Action, with increasing recognition of the importance of human
welfare and inequity. These concerns cannot be tackled at a global level
and are resolved regionally or locally. Environmental solutions are
tempered by the desire for balance with economic goals in many areas - but
poor governance means that meeting the needs of the poor and future
generations is hampered by limited prosperity.
Families think seriously about the fact that their offspring may be dealing
with a more ecologically stressed world, moreover one with limited
financial resources for dealing with such problems. Education levels are
high so that the ability of families to internalise global concerns in
their family planning decisions is also high. The relative stabilisation
of world population growth after 2050 leads to general optimism about the
ability of society to solve problems such as food and water supply.
6.11 Population
Both local governance and environmental concerns limit population growth.
The world largely supports efforts to reduce unwanted births both as a
social service but also because there is an implicit belief that even
increasing populations have severe environmental consequences. Education
and welfare programs for the young and illiterate are widely pursued.
Population stabilises at 10.5 billion people by 2100. Since economic

growth is relatively slow, fertility rates do not decline strongly. But,
the effect of fertility rate declines on lowering population size outweigh
those of mortality rate decreases increasing population size.
The stabilisation of global population (largely after 2050) leads to a new

atmosphere for social planning. It becomes considerably easier than at
present for education, health care and pension programs. Age cohort sizes
are much more stable through time than at present, although of course,
overall ageing continues.
6.12 Economic Development

GWP grows to around 240 trillion $ in 2100 with a North/South income ratio
of approximately 7/1 (presently 13/1). Concerns about the ecological costs
of consumerist lifestyles receive wide attention and attempts are made,
first in industrial countries, but later in developing countries, to seek
satisfaction through community activities rather than high consumption.
Overall people are eager to find alternatives to the high income world of
materialism.
6.13 Governance
Governance is weak globally but strong nationally and regionally.
Deliberate policies to limit trade for environmental and social reasons
hinder the transfer of technologies. However pollution trading concepts
catch on as a way of driving down the costs of pollution control.
International alliances occur based on particular national circumstances,
such as in the development of biomass technologies. This fragmentation
gives rise to pockets of environmental and social justice activists.
Environmental policies vary widely across regions, for example in
acceptable sulphur emission levels. NGO and public interest groups are
strong, influential and busy.
6.14 Equity
While strong redistribution policies are enacted within regions to reduce
income disparity, income differences between regions persist globally
throughout the century and even increases in absolute terms, although the
relative inequity decreases. The mechanism by which global equity
increases relates in part to population dynamics: as fertility rates
decline in developing countries, the decrease in youth dependency ratios
leads to an increase in savings rate and strengthened economic growth
during the first half of the century. In the developed regions, by
contrast, ageing becomes an increasing drag on economic growth in helping
to converge global incomes, concerns about the persistence of income
inequality world-wide are swamped by the local concerns and conscious
policies to limit international trade.
6.15 Settlement Patterns

A strong deurbanization trend occurs in this world because of increasing
concern about the marginalization of the very poor that accompanies massive
urbanisation. There are also concerns about managing large transient
populations that migrate seasonally to cities for short term employment,
for example in the construction industry.
Immigration is controlled but accepted, partly to compensate for very low

fertility rates in some regions and partly to help economic development
worldwide without the problems of uncontrolled globalisation.
6.16 Environmental Policy

Environmental improvement is strongly pursued although regional policies
vary widely such as with sulphur controls. Marked reductions in S, CH4,
deforestation, CFCs and N2O occur and water quality is addressed.
Ecological resilience is not seen as high. The environment is viewed as
quite fragile and requiring careful policy stewardship. Resource
extraction is viewed as intrinsically problematic and scepticism persists
regarding the ability of society to prevent environmental disasters like
the Valdez oil spill and Kuwaiti oil fires. Indeed the world is
increasingly sensitive about and intolerant of such events and much tension
exists concerning this aspect of development. Environment groups lobby
hard on these themes and paint a picture of rapidly depleting natural
resources.
6.2 Scenarios

Because of the concern about ecological fragility, alternative and
renewable energy systems are viewed with much hope and are socially and
politically encouraged. Biomass technologies and policies are invigorated.
The labour and land intensive developing countries pursue biomass
production while the capital intensive developed regions develop the
required technologies. A degree of co-operation coalesces about such
mutually symbiotic activities.
Consumers accept a rather long return in evaluating energy-efficiency
investments. Mass transit systems are very successful and profitable.
Advances in transportation technology are rapid.
Hydroelectric power is a constrained bag. Dams are viewed with disdain

because there are soon no more wild rivers anywhere and the rights of
indigenous people have been egregiously violated. Although they are
relatively clean from the perspective of carbon emissions, their effects on
indigenous people (mercury poisoning of fish, etc.) becomes unacceptable.
Decommissioning dams is widespread to restore pristine ecological systems
downstream.
Reduction in carbon intensity is not viewed as a policy goal but it

declines for other reasons. It is a frugal world with limited resource
availability and so the paradigm grows that it is less costly to save
energy than it is to buy it and use it. This spurs the development of
technologies that use carbon more efficiently. In addition the
accompanying emissions of NOx and SOx and tropospheric ozone are
increasingly viewed as unacceptable.
An initial scenario quantification in terms of population, GDP, energy use,
and CO2 emissions for the scenario is summarised in Appendix 1.
Energy intensity declines at a rate of 1.3%/year to a value of 0.12
toe/$1000 in 2100. This represents a total global energy usage in 2100 of
1250 EJ, of which 300 EJ is oil and gas; 100 EJ coal and 900 EJ is
non-carbon renewables, with nuclear's role limited.
The global scenario for 2100 is also summarised in the form of a snowflake
diagram. All scenario quantifications are tentative and subject to revisions.
[Figure: "Snowflake" for B2 scenario]
6.24 CO2 Emissions

By 2100 CO2 emissions 11.5 GtC/year, of which 5 GtC/year is emitted by the
North and 6.5 GtC/year by the South. Carbon intensity declines at a rate
of 0.8%/year to 2100, to a value of 0.3 tC/toe, some 50% of today's value.
7. Scenario Comparisons
[To be written]
8. Conclusions
[To be written]
Appendix 1: Scenario Quantification

[To be written]
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachdavis.doc"
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachdavis.rtf"
Anne JOHNSON
IIASA
Fax : xxx xxxx xxxx

Emails
From: Fritz Schweingruber <[email protected]>

Subject: No Subject
Date: Thu, 12 Mar 1998 11:43:51 +0100
Dear Keith
Yesterdy we had the final meeting to a natonal research program climat and
natural catastrophies. Local authorites and Grassel, WMO summarised the
major open questions on which Switzerland could work:
-Changes of Forest and treeline borders eg. subalpine, or invasion of

evergreen species in the chestnut forests in the Tessin
-long term chronologies (they spoke about climate)
-seasonal chronologies
-frequency and intensity of extrem climatic events.
-amount of anthropogenic input on climate and natural catastrophies.
- reconstruction of precipitations
-influence of natural phenomena as volcanoes and el nino on climate
Nowbody said anything about growth but few were aware of the local validity
of the studies made in Switzerland.
Our actual studies fit perfectly to this topics. For the future (discussion
in Kopenhagen) I see the following condensation points:
-continue millenial temperature sensitive chronologies.Some money should go

to Taimyr and Yamal an perhaps French Alps.
-start with a precipitation sensitive network in Eurasia. Pinus, Juniperus

in a transect from Spain to Tibet including dry sites in Sibirea. Partner
could be Inst. of Geography, Bonn (Jan Esper) and Birmensdorf.
-Analysis of recovery of upper timberlines in Putorana mountains in

north-central Sibirea,( similar study like Shiyatov in Polar Ural). A Vice
director of the Inst. of Forest in Krasnoyarsk made a little Proposal (Dr.
Abraimov). I have a PhD Student who make the same in the Swiss Alps near
St. Moritz.
-Growth-climate studies in a test region in central Sibirea. Very good is

the baikal region. There is a very steep precepitation gradiant ,200mm -
1800mm in a distance of 40 km.and in accordance a steep vegetation gradiant
from the steppe to pine forest to Abies sibirica stands.Victor Voronin made
a little proposel) At least one valley in the Abies region in the south of
lake Baikal is heavily polluted An almost identical study has been made in
southern Germany(Spiecker) in a transect from Lorraine to the black forest
mill,(SO2).
-Reconstruction of extreme events in Central Europe (R. Vogels thesis shows

how to do it) I am convinced that we could gather much mor material across
Europe. That could be a topic for a thesis. It must not be part of an
EU-proposal.
Can we discuss this suggestions at Kopenhagen?
Sincerely Fritz

Emails

Akhiro Amano <[email protected]>, Dennis Anderson
<[email protected]>, Mathew Luhanga <[email protected]>, Sandy MacCracken
<[email protected]>, Nicolette Manson <Nicolette_Manson-
[email protected]>, Julio Torres Martinez <[email protected]>, Douglas
McKay <[email protected]>, Roberta Miller <[email protected]>, Laurie
Lynn Price <[email protected]>, Rich Richels <[email protected]>, Holger
Priyadarshi Shukla <[email protected]>, James Skea <[email protected]>,
Steve Smith <[email protected]>, Leena Srivastava <[email protected]>, Susan
Subak <[email protected]>, Robert Swart <[email protected]>, Robert
Watson <[email protected]>, John Weyant <[email protected].>, Ernst Worrell
<[email protected]>
Subject: meeting next week
Date: Tue, 21 Apr 1998 15:53:20 +0200
Dear Colleagues,
Due to the large number of participants at the Lead Authors meeting, the
location has been changed from IPCC WG II TSU offices to the World Bank,
H Building, 600 19th Street, N.W.
The closest metro stop to this building is Farragut West on the orange and
blue lines. Take the 18th Street exit from the metro and go one block to
19th Street and then two blocks over to G Street. You will need a badge to
get
into the meeting, but someone will be there to help you with this. In any
case, it may be a good idea to come a bit early on the first day to get
checked in. The meeting begins at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday morning.
The Modelers meeting will still be held at the WG II TSU office as

originally planned. That meeting starts at 8:30 a.m. on Monday morning.
The address, once again, is 400 Virginia Avenue S.W., Suite 750,
Washington, D.C.
We look forward to seeing everyone in Washington.
Best regards,
Anne Johnson
Anne JOHNSON
IIASA
Fax : xxx xxxx xxxx

Emails
[email protected], [email protected],
Subject: RE: IPCC SRES Scenario Guidelines for Authors
Date: 08 May 1998 10:50:50 +0100
Find below guidelines on how to present the IS99 storylines and scenarios. Could
you the nominated authors send me your first drafts as soon as possible.
In writing up your contribution could you cover the following areas, ideally
structured as follows:
1. Scenario family narrative to discuss main themes, dynamics and a diagram

showing 'grand logic'
2. Key Scenario Family Drivers and their Relationships

Topics you should cover include the following:
* population
* technology developments
* governance and geopolitics
* economic development
* equity
* communication and settlement patterns
* environmental concerns/ecological resilience
3. Scenarios, include reasons for branches: this section should state clearly the
reasons behind selection of scenarios and review the key highlights of the
scenario quantification
* energy resources/technology, include resource availability
* land use and agriculture
* scenario quantification, include snowflake
* CO2 emissions
There may be other factors you wish to add to the paper.
Regards,
Ged Davis SI-PXG Tel: 0xxx xxxx xxxxFax: 0xxx xxxx xxxx
Shell International Limited, London
Scenario Processes and Applications

Emails

To: j.burgess@uea
Subject: Re: report- edit this and send an email
Date: Fri Jun 12 12:36:xxx xxxx xxxx
>Return-path: <[email protected]>
>Envelope-to: [email protected]
>Delivery-date: Tue, 12 May 1998 17:42:11 +0100
>X-Sender: [email protected]
>Date: Tue, 12 May 1998 16:42:31 +0000
>To: Keith Briffa <[email protected]>
>From: Mike Baillie <[email protected]>
>Subject: Re: report- edit this and send an email
>
>Keith, here are some thoughts on belfast work. Come back to me on this.
>Cheers Mike
>
>10K Belfast Report.
>
>All the remaining long chronology (prehistoric) oak data from Ireland,
>England, north and south Germany (including the major Hohenhein holdings
>(2827 tree series spanning 8239 BC to 841 AD) and the Netherlands (667
>series spanning 6025 BC with gaps to 1721 AD) has now been centralised and
>screened.
>Work has been progressing on calculating running statistics on and between
>these data sets and their constituent ring patterns. Additional attention
>has been paid to attempting to understand/interpret the data in various
>ways. During the year, three principal work packages have been explored
>with respect to assessing the oak data.
>
>work package i)
>signatures
>With such a wide grid of chronologies it is possible to review the
>occurrence of years of common growth trend. Signatures are normally
>defined as those years in which 80% or more of all trees in a 'region'
>exhibit the same trend towards wider or narrower growth. All sub-regional
>and overall European signatures have been isolated and the intention is to
>re-do the 1985 analysis of Kelly et al. comparing rainfall, temperature and
>drought index data with the ocurrence of widespread signatures.
>
>work package ii)
>Stepped windows of correlation
>With the availability of the raw data from each laboratory all regional
>chronologies for Ireland, Britain, North Germany and South Germany have
>been reconstructed by standard means (initially fitting a 30-year spline to
>each individual tree-ring pattern). Using these standardised chronologies,
>stepped windows of correlation have been run comparing all regions across
>time back to 5000 BC. Notable changes are observed indicating periods of
>consistent, north-European-wide similarity and dis-similarity. The
>availability of the raw data then allows interrogation of anomalies. For
>example, there is a notable fall-off in correlation between the
>standardised Irish and English chronologies at AD 775 to 825. In the past
>this would have been attributed to aspects such as a) poor replication or
>b) narrow versus wide rings. In this case examination of these aspects
>showed that neither was the cause of the poor correlation; it appears that
>English and Irish trees were responding in completely opposite manner
>during this period. Such findings have important implications for both
>identifying and interrogating such episodes throughout the record.
>
>work package iii)
>Widest and narrowest rings.
>It had always been assumed that the widest (or narrowest) ring in any tree,
>in any year, would be idiosyncratic. This assumption produced the
>expectation that the information from such extremes would be largely
>meaningless. With the availability of the raw data it is now possible to
>create new chronologies of the 1st narrowest, and or the 2nd/3rd narrowest,
>the widest, etc, rings in each year, for each region, or for the entire
>regional dataset. The result of isolating these extremes turns out to be
>surprising in that plots of the extremes show remarkable coherence. Figure
>Z shows a section of the Irish chronology constructed from the widest (and
>narrowest) raw ring widths (the narrowest values being converted to indices
>for clarity). This presentation shows the 'maximum envelope of oak growth'
>year by year through time. This is a remarkable way to demonstrate periods
>when there are no narrow rings in any trees and others where there are no
>wide rings in any trees. Extreme events such as that in AD 540 can be seen
>as an overall downturn in the ring width envelope, not just a reduction in
>mean ring width.
>
>Extreme events.
>Work has continued documenting extreme events in the European oak, and
>other, records, partly as a preliminary to the detailed comparison between
>the oak and Fennoscandian and Finnish pine chronologies. Some of the
>events appear to be of a sufficiently global character that their effects
>should be apparent in the more temperature sensitive northern pine
>chronologies. Recently preliminary work has documented declines in the
>seventeenth century and twelfth century BC and in the later fifth century
>BC. Notable declines in the 1620s and 1120s in Foxtail pine chronologies
>from the Sierra Nevada (Scuderi 1993; Caprio and Baisan 1991) suggest
>reduced temperatures around the time of spaced events in the floating
>Fennoscandian record. With several exactly-spaced events available over
>several millennia it should be possible to link the major oak and pine
>holdings, with the additional possibility of using dated English and Irish
>sub-fossil pine chronologies to confirm linkages.
>Refs
>Caprio, A.C. and Baisan, C.H. 1992. Multi-millennial tree-ring chronologies
>from foxtail pine in the southern Sierras of California. Abstract in
>Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 73, 133.
>
>Scuderi, L.A. 1993, A 2000-Year Tree-Ring Record of Annual Temperatures in
>the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Science 259, 1433-6
>
>
>Related applications:
>
>Interhemispheric Radiocarbon Calibration
>In addition collaboration has continued on a range of topics including
>interhemispheric radiocarbon calibration. Oak samples from Ireland and
>exactly contemporaneous samples of cedar from New Zealand have been measued
>in radiocarbon laboratories in Belfast and Waikato (samples from each
>hemisphere being dated in both laboratories). This work is showing
>interesting hemispheric changes through time with implications for carbon
>cycle modellers (related paper accepted for publication).
>
>Global tree-ring responses to environmental change.
>As part of our network of collaborators, it is possible to have access to
>tree-ring patterns and related temperature reconstructions from a wide grid
>of chronologies outside Europe. An example of the power of such grids is
>provided by the observed changes during the fourteenth century AD. Here
>chronologies from the EU oak group have been combined with those from Ed
>Cook (Tasmanian Huon pine); Keith Briffa (Fennoscandian and Polar Urals
>pine); Peter Kuniholm (Aegean oak and pine) and Xiong Limin (New Zealand
>cedar). When permed (random groups of five from seven chronologies) to
>show common responses, the overall pattern exhibits reduced growth in the
>1340s, the decade of the arrival of the Black Death in Europe, see Figure.
>Such a clear environmental context for the plague has never been available
>before.
>
>Comparisons with other proxy data.
>The strict annual character of tree-ring data is only truly comparable with
>precisely dated human records. For the early fourteenth century
>surprisingly complete records exist from England for crop yields and
>prices. In an attempt to compare two different but parallel proxy records,
>namely those for tree growth and for crop prices, collaboration with
>economic historians (Prof. Bruce Campbell Econ. and Soc. Hist. QUB) has
>been initiated. Preliminary plots of robust, screened European master
>chronologies against grain prices reveals surprising levels of common trend.
>
>Innundated trees
>As part of an effort to understand physiological response of oak to
>waterlogging, 21 oaks were sampled at garryland Wood, County Galway. These
>trees grow in a limestone area which is flooded in some winters to depths
>of 10s of metres, for durations up to months. Some of the trees exhibit
>scar damage almost certainly from bark burst during submersion. Scars
>appear to to coincide with winters of higher than average rainfall. The
>fact that the trees are not submerged during the growing season means that
>they do not show the extreme dieback and micro-rings associated with trees
>left standing in permanent water, such as examples from beside Loch Lomond,
>Scotland.
>
>Publications with Grant number
>
>Baillie, M.G.L. 1996 Chronology of the Bronze Age 2354 BC to 401 BC. Acta
>Archaeologica 67, xxx xxxx xxxx
>
>Baillie, M.G.L. 1998 Evidence for climatic deterioration in the 12th and
>17th centuries BC. in H

Emails
Subject: Re: Something far more interesting
Date: Wed, 17 Jun 1998 12:03:xxx xxxx xxxx(EDT)
Dear Phil,
Of course I'll be happy to be on board. I think the opportunity for some

direct collaboration between us (me, and you/tim/keith) is ripe, and
the plan to compare and contrast different approaches and data and
synthesize the different results is a good one. Though sidetracked
by other projects recently, I remain committed to doing this with
you guys, and to explore applications to synthetic datasets with
manufactured biases/etc remains high priority. It sounds like it
would all fit into the proposal you mention. There may be some
overlap w/proposals we will eventually submit to NSF (renewal
of our present funding), etc. by I don't see a problem with that
in the least.
Once the collaboration is officially in place, I think that sharing

of codes, data, etc. should not be a problem. I would be happy to
make mine available, though can't promise its the most user friendly
thing in the world.
In short, I like the idea. INclude me in, and let me know what you
need from me (cv, etc.).
cheers,
mike
____________________________________________________________________
Michael E. Mann
Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Geosciences
Morrill Science Center
University of Massachusetts
Amherst, MA 01003
____________________________________________________________________
Web: http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/mike
Phone: (4xxx xxxx xxxx FAX: (4xxx xxxx xxxx

Emails
Subject: Scenarios issues
Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 18:00 +0000 (GMT)
Dear colleagues,
I will like to post here some correspondence which is clearly relevant for this
"scenarios discussion group" regarding some issues related to the use of the new
emission scenarios, simple models, etc. Please post any comments on these issues
or any other issue that you may want to raise to the following address
"[email protected]".
I have added the following experts to the list posted in my first Email:
P Wagner
R Watson
J Edmonds
S Smith
G Marland
Many thanks.
Maria Noguer
***********************************
Issues raised by J Mitchell:
1. There are several uses for scenarios:

a) Conversion to concentration using chemistry models to produce forcing curves
b) Forcings for GCM runs
c) Use in simpler models to produce global mean curves of concentrations,
forcing, temperature and sea level. This would requires a simple model which is
documented and calibrated against one (preferably several) climate models.
The final IPCC approved scenarios will not be available until February 2000, so
we should decide now on which draft scenarios to use
2. The provisional emissions will be made available imminently. These need to be

evaluated as there are four basic families and many variants. How is the median
scenario defined?
3. What criteria are to be set for the simpler models used for global mean
projections?
*************************************
Issue raised by Tom Wigley and reponses:
Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 11:00:xxx xxxx xxxx(MDT)

To: Sir John Houghton <[email protected]>,
Patricia WAGNER <[email protected]>,
Hugh Pitcher <[email protected]>,
Robert Watson <[email protected]>
Cc: Jae Edmonds <[email protected]>, Mike Hulme
<[email protected]>,
Atul Jain <[email protected]>,
Fortunat Joos <[email protected]>,
Richard Richels <[email protected]>,
Dave Schimel <[email protected]>, [email protected]
Subject: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios
Dear Bob, Hugh, Naki and John,
Mike Hulme has told me something that is quite alarming about the
soon-to-be-released 'IPCC' CO2 emissions scenarios. If this is correct,
you/IPCC should try to remedy it as a matter of some urgency. He said
that the new 'IPCC' CO2 emissions scenarios will still begin in 1990 and
will not use observed (Marland) emissions for the 1990s.
You may either not realize, or not remember, that during the preparation
of the SAR and (especially) TPs 2 and 4, IPCC was frequently criticized
for using out-of-date emissions data that were manifestly wrong during the
1990s. It would be extremely embarrassing to be subject to the same
criticism with the TAR. Indeed, since the criticism is a justifiable one,
it would be inexcusable not to have responded to it.
Equally embarrassing should be the fact that, in the published literature

(my 1997 Nature and 1998 GRL papers), this 'error' has already been
avoided.
How can you get around this problem? Ideally, the energy-economics models
need to be revised to begin in or around 2000 instead of 1990. Indeed, in
talking to Rich Richels about this issue, as well as echoing my concern,
he noted that his model (MERGE) is currently being updated in just this
way. He also pointed out that beginning an energy-economics model run in
1990 leads to considerable 'flexibility' in 2000 emissions; when, in fact,
the 2000 emissions will already be fixed and known by the time the TAR
comes out.
It is probably impossible to make this ideal type of 'fix', but a 'fix'
can still be made. What you could do is just what I have done in the above
two papers. This is a simple procedure that CAN be used since it is in the
published literature. All I did was use observed emissions to 1996 (as far
as data were available), linearly extrapolate these to 2000 (under the
assumption that this was a better projection than the corresponding IS92a
projection), and then use IS92a CHANGES from 2000. You may be able to
improve on the second step, but this is unimportant. The crucial thing is
to get the beginning years of the record to match observed emissions as
far as such data are available.
The above, by the way, does not have to be applied to emissions from
land-use change because of the way we deal with initialization with the
carbon cycle models. We do not use historical land-use- change emissions.
You may argue that, in terms of projected CO2 concentrations, incorrect

1990s emissions have only a minor effect. This is such an obviously
specious argument that I won't bother to discuss it. Not least, it will
not satisfy the critics.
A parallel issue does, however, arise with the CO2 concentration

stabilization profiles. The 'S' profiles are already ludicrous, since
their concentrations and implied emissions already diverge markedly from
observations. The WRE profiles diverge less, but still enough for me to
deem that they need revising. I have, in fact, already done this. I would
be happy to pass the new profiles on to IPCC.
Best wishes,
Tom
=======================================================
>From Robert Watson on July 13:
Tom: I appreciate you bringing this critical issue to the fore - you are
absolutely right that we must not look naive. I assume that Naki and Jon
et al. Will deal with this while I an on vacation for the next four days.
Bob
=========================================================
Date: Wed, 15 Jul 1998 02:18:09 +0000
From: David Schimel <[email protected]>
To: Tom Wigley <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios
Tom,
I raised this issue at the scoping meeting in Bad (very bad)

Munstereieffel, where it was greeted with general agreement but it
appeared to come as a complete surprise to many that scenarios should have
a relationship to reality.
There was also general mild surprise at the degree of non GCM-community
interest in following Kyoto and stabilization rather than 1% per year and
similar reactions to the fact that 1% year doubles the current rate of
change.
But the wind is shifting
DS
========================================================
Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 09:46:xxx xxxx xxxx
From: Atul Jain <[email protected]> To: Tom Wigley
<[email protected]>
Cc: Sir John Houghton <[email protected]>,
Jae Edmonds <[email protected]>,
Mike Hulme <[email protected]>,
Dave Schimel <[email protected]>,
[email protected]
Subject: Re: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios
Dear Tom,
I got the same impression from Hugh's talk during the last week Community
Meeting on IA, which was sponsored by NSF. It does not matter so much
whether the starting point for the scenario calculations is 1990 or 2000.
The main concern is that the emission scenarios should reflect the recent
changes in fossil emissions, which show a decreasing trend from 1990 to
1995 in Annex B emissions. Using projected emissions that are incorrect,
rather than updating them with observed emissions, is clearly not
acceptable.
I agree with you that the effects of these emissions on CO2 concentration
is minor. However, recent observed emissions will have a major impact on
estimates of the cost of CO2 abatement, which depend mainly on cumulative
emissions rather than on concentration. It is important, especially in
light of Kyoto commitments, not to produce inaccurate emission pathways
that overestimate emissions from 1xxx xxxx xxxx, since they may be used as
baselines for producing cost estimates.
Cheers! Atul
=========================================================
Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 08:19:xxx xxxx xxxx
From: "Pitcher, Hugh M" <[email protected]>
To: "'[email protected]'" <[email protected]>,
Tom Wigley <[email protected]>
Cc: Sir John Houghton <[email protected]>,
Robert Watson <[email protected]>,
Jae Edmonds <[email protected]>,
Mike Hulme <[email protected]>,
Dave Schimel <[email protected]>,
[email protected]
Subject: RE: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios
Dear Tom et al
In setting up the MiniCAM to do the scenario work for the SRES, we tuned
the 2005 energy and hence emissions numbers to reproduce the latest IEA
forecast, which explicitly incorporates the slowdown in 1990 to 1995. The
only problem here is that informal feedback from within Russia(Igor
Bashmakov) suggests the IEA data significantly overstate the reduction in
energy use. Our scenarios all go through the short term forecast for 2005
and then diverge onto alternative paths.
Getting a good handle on recent historical data and a

consistent/reasonable forecast for tuning the short term aspect of the
scenarios is going to be increasingly critical as we try to sort out
strategies and costs of strategies. This is a separate problem from the
long term scenario work, and requires rather different tools.
cheers, hugh
=========================================================
Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 14:27:xxx xxxx xxxx(MDT)
To: "Pitcher, Hugh M" <[email protected]>
Cc: "'[email protected]'" <[email protected]>,
Sir John Houghton <[email protected]>,
Patricia WAGNER <[email protected]>, Hugh Pitcher <[email protected]>,
Robert Watson <[email protected]>, Jae Edmonds <[email protected]>,
Mike Hulme <[email protected]>, Fortunat Joos <[email protected]>,
Dave Schimel <[email protected]>, Gregg Marland <[email protected]>,
[email protected]
Subject: RE: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios
Dear all,
I appreciate the responses regarding my concern about the new 'IPCC'

fossil CO2 emissions scenarios. However, no-one seems to be willing to
grasp the nettle and suggest what can be done about it. From what Hugh
says, all scenarios go through the same 2005 value, so this suggests an
obvious 'fix'.
(I am curious to know what this 2005 value is, and how close it is to what
I used in my Kyoto papers.)
Hugh also suggests the 'IPCC' 2005 value may be open to improvement, but I
presume it is too late to do this now. So ... what should be done? The
obvious solution would be to use Gregg Marland's 'observed' values as far
as they go, and then linearly interpolate from his latest year to 2005.
When I did my work, I had Gregg's values to 1995, and was able to make a
good guess from what he told me about what the 1996 value would be. By
now, 1996 should be available, and a good estimate may be possible for
1997. If so, then the linear interpolation would go over 1997 to 2005.
Do you all agree with this strategy? ... or does someone have a better
idea??
I'm copying this to Gregg to see what more recent data he can provide.
Cheers,
Tom

Emails
Subject: Scenarios - SRES description 2
Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 10:09 +0000 (GMT)
As promised here is the second part of the SRES description:
----------
SRES WRITING TEAM

ADDRESS LIST
Dr. Joseph M. Alcamo

Professor, Scientific Center for
Environmental Systems Research
University of Kassel, Germany
Dr. Knut H. Alfsen

Director, Center for International Climate and Environmental Protection (CICERO)
University of Oslo, Norway
Prof. Akhiro Amano

Dean, School of Policy Studies
Kwansei Gakuin University, Japan
Dr. Dennis Anderson

Professor, Oxford University
Oxford, UK
Dr. Zhou Dadi

Energy Research Institute
State Planning Commission
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Beijing, China
Dr. Gerald R. Davis

Group Planning
Shell International Petroleum
London, UK
Dr. Bert de Vries

National Institute for Public Health
and Environmental Hygiene (RIVM)
Bilthoven, the Netherlands
Dr. Jae Edmonds

Senior Research Scientist
Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory
Washington, D.C., U.S.A.
Mr. J/0rgen Fenhann

Energy Systems Group and
UNEP Collag. Ctr. on Energy
and Environment
Ris/0 National Laboratory
Roskilde, Denmark
Dr. Stuart R. Gaffin

Atmosphere Program
Environmental Defense Fund
New York, NY, U.S.A.
Dr. Henryk Gaj

Polish Foundation for Energy
Efficiency (FEWE)
Warsaw, Poland
Dr. Ken Gregory

Centre for Business and the Environment
Middlesex, UK
Dr. Arnulf Gruebler

Environmentally Compatible
Energy Strategies
International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis
Laxenburg, Austria
Mr. William Hare

Greenpeace International
Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Dr. Erik Haites

Margaree Consultants, Inc.
Toronto, ONT, Canada
Dr. Tae-Yong Jung

Korea Energy Economics Institute
Euiwang-Si, Kyunggi-Do, Korea
Dr. Thomas Kram

Project Head of ETSAP
ECN Policy Studies
Netherlands Energy Research
Foundation
Petten, the Netherlands
Dr. Emilio Lebre La Rovere

COPPE/UFRJ
Universidade Federal do
Rio de Janeiro
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Prof. Matthew Luhanga

University of Dar es Salaam
Dar es Salaam, United Republic
of Tanzania
Dr. Laurie Michaelis
Environment Directorate
OECD
Paris, France
Dr. Shunsuke Mori

Department of Industrial Administration
Faculty of Science and Engineering
Science University of Tokyo
Tokyo, Japan
Dr. Tsuneyuki Morita

Head of Global Warming Response Team
National Institute for Environmental
Studies
Tsukuba, Japan
Dr. Richard Moss

Head of Technical Support Unit
IPCC Working Group II
Prof. Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Project Leader
Environmentally Compatible
Energy Strategies
International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis
Laxenburg, Austria
Dr. William Pepper

ICF Kaiser
Fairfax, VA, U.S.A.
Mr. Hugh Martin Pitcher

Senior Scientist, Global Change Group
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Ms. Lynn Price

Berkeley, CA, U.S.A.
Dr. Hans-Holger Rogner

Section Head, Planning and Economic
Studies Section
International Atomic Energy Agency
Vienna, Austria
Dr. Priyadarshi Shukla

Indian Institute of Technology
Ahmedabad, India
Mr. Alexei Sankovski

ICF Kaiser
Dr. Robert Swart

Air Research Laboratory
Policy Analysis and Scenarios
RIVM
Bilthoven, the Netherlands
Prof. John P. Weyant

Director
Energy Modeling Forum
Stanford University
Stanford, CA, U.S.A.
Dr. Ernst Worrell

Berkeley, CA, U.S.A.
/p/ecs/general/admin/ipcc-sr/corr/open process/naki-short.doc 06/26/98,

11:34 AM

Emails

Akhiro Amano <[email protected]>, Dennis Anderson
Joergen Fenhann <[email protected]>, Guenther Fischer
<[email protected]>, Stuart Gaffin <[email protected]>, Henryk Gaj
<[email protected]>, Kenneth Gregory <[email protected]>, Arnulf
Gruebler <[email protected]>, Erik Haites <[email protected]>, William
Hare <[email protected]>, Michael Jefferson <[email protected]>, Tae-Yong
Jung <[email protected]>, Tom Kram <[email protected]>, Emilio La Rovere
<[email protected]>, Rik Leemans <[email protected]>, Matthew Luhanga
<[email protected]>, Michael Hulme <[email protected]>, Douglas McKay
<[email protected]>, Julio Torres-Martinez <[email protected]>, Laurie
Michaelis <[email protected]>, Roberta Miller
<[email protected]>, Shunsuke Mori <[email protected]>, Tsuneyuke
Morita <[email protected]>, Nebojsa Nakicenovic <[email protected]>, Youssef
Nassef <[email protected]>, William Pepper <[email protected]>, Hugh
Pitcher <[email protected]>, Lynn Price <[email protected]>, Rich
Richels <[email protected]>, Holger Rogner <[email protected]>,
Cynthia Rosenzweig <[email protected]>, Alexei Sankovski
<[email protected]>, Stephen Schneider <[email protected]>, Priyadarshi
Shukla <[email protected]>, James Skea <[email protected]>, Steve Smith
<[email protected]>, Leena Srivastava <[email protected]>, Susan Subak
<[email protected]>, Robert Swart <[email protected]>, Sascha van
Rooijen <[email protected]>, John Weyant <[email protected]>, Ernst
Worrell <[email protected]>, Xing Xiaoshi <[email protected]>
Subject: Next SRES Meeting in Beijing, 7-9 October
Date: Tue, 25 Aug 1998 17:31:41 +0200
Cc: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Dear Colleagues,
Zhou Dadi has been kind enough to organize the next SRES Lead Authors
meeting in Beijing, China, to be held on 7-9 October, 1998. Dadi will
provide us with more detailed information on meeting logistics in the near
future, and I will send out a meeting agenda as we get closer to the
meeting date. Basically, there are four items that need to be discussed at
the meeting: 1) SRES progress to date; 2) the open process; 3) scenario
revisions and additional work; and 4) planning the final report.
Please mark you calendars for this date and RSVP to both Zhou Dadi
([email protected]) and Anne Johnson ([email protected]) as soon
as possible I will be out of the office xxx xxxx xxxxSeptember and will not be
able to receive messages during this time.
I look forward to seeing you in Beijing.
Naki

Emails

To: Joseph Alcamo <[email protected]>, Akhiro Amano <[email protected]>,
Zhou Dadi <[email protected]>, Gerald Davis <[email protected]>, Bert de
Vries <[email protected]>, Jae Edmonds <[email protected]>,
Joergen Fenhann <[email protected]>, Guenther Fischer
<[email protected]>, Stuart Gaffin <[email protected]>, Henryk Gaj
<[email protected]>, Kenneth Gregory <[email protected]>, Arnulf
Gruebler <[email protected]>, William Hare <[email protected]>, Michael
Jefferson <[email protected]>, Tae-Yong Jung <[email protected]>, Tom
Kram <[email protected]>, Emilio La Rovere <[email protected]>, Rik Leemans
<[email protected]>, Matthew Luhanga <[email protected]>, Michael Hulme
<[email protected]>, Douglas McKay <[email protected]>, Julio Torres-
Martinez <[email protected]>, Bert Metz <[email protected]>, Laurie
Michaelis <[email protected]>, Roberta Miller
<[email protected]>, "John F.B. Mitchell" <[email protected]>,
Shunsuke Mori <[email protected]>, Tsuneyuke Morita <[email protected]>,
Lynn Price <[email protected]>, Rich Richels <[email protected]>, Keywan
Riahi <[email protected]>, Alexander Roehrl <[email protected]>, Holger
Alexei Sankovski <[email protected]>, Stephen Schneider
<[email protected]>, Priyadarshi Shukla <[email protected]>, "Michael
Schlesinger <[email protected]> Steve Smith" <[email protected]>, Leena
Srivastava <[email protected]>, Susan Subak <[email protected]>, Sascha van
Rooijen <[email protected]>, John Weyant <[email protected]>, Xing
Xiaoshi <[email protected]>, "Richard H. Moss" <[email protected]>, "John
F.B. Mitchell" <[email protected]>, Ernst Worrell
<[email protected]>, Dennis Anderson <[email protected]>, Erik
Haites <[email protected]>, James Skea <[email protected]>
Subject: Next SRES Meeting in Beijing, 7-9 October
Date: Wed, 02 Sep 1998 15:01:47 +0200
Cc: Dave Dokken <[email protected]>, Rob Swart <[email protected]>,
"D.J. Griggs" <[email protected]>
Dear Colleagues,
This is a follow up on the earlier announcement of the next SRES Meeting.

First, I would like to thank all those of you who have confirmed that you
will join us in Beijing. Unfortunately, some of our colleagues also had to
cancel due to other commitments. Attached you will find the venue of the
meeting and hotel that Dadi reserved for us at a special discounted price.
My proposal is to convene at 13:00 hours on 7 October and try to finish on
early afternoon on 9 October so that you have some free time left for
sight-seeing before we all depart.
I will soon send to all of you formal invitation letters on IIASA

letter-head just in the case you need it for travel approval (unless you
cancel your participation in the meantime). Dadi will send you a similar
invitation letter to use in order to obtain a visa for China.
Appended is my last e-mail concerning this meeting in case you did not
receive a copy. In the attachment to this e-mail you will find two
letters. One is from IPCC outlining the possible role of scenarios in IPCC
assessment (Microsoft Photo Editor file). It is important for our work as
it indicates possible uses of new IPCC emissions scenarios. One of the
agenda items at the meeting will indeed be to discuss which of our marker
scenarios we recommend be used in the interim period before our scenarios
are approved by IPCC in early 2000. The other letter is also from IPCC
announcing the SRES web-site (PowerPoint file). The web-site includes most
of the scenario variants we have developed to date. Please circulate this
second letter as widely as you can because we need as much feedback from
the wider community of possible users as we can obtain.
Please let us know as soon as possible whether you are planing to attend.
I hope to see you all in China.
Regards, Naki
Venue:
National Meteorological Administration (No. 46 Baishiqiao Road, Haidian
District, Beijing).
Accommodation:
Olympic Hotel (No. 48 Baishiqiao Road, Haidian District, Beijing,
Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx); discounted Price: US$65+15% service costs.
Meeting Announcement:
Dear Colleagues,
Zhou Dadi has been kind enough to organize the next SRES Lead Authors
meeting in Beijing, China, to be held on 7-9 October, 1998. Dadi will
provide us with more detailed information on meeting logistics in the near
future, and I will send out a meeting agenda as we get closer to the
meeting date. Basically, there are four items that need to be discussed at
the meeting: 1) SRES progress to date; 2) the open process; 3) scenario
revisions and additional work; and 4) planning the final report.
Please mark you calendars for this date and RSVP to both Zhou Dadi
([email protected]) and Anne Johnson ([email protected]) as soon
as possible I will be out of the office xxx xxxx xxxxSeptember and will not be
able to receive messages during this time.
I look forward to seeing you in Beijing.

Naki

Emails
From: "Stepan G. Shiyatov" <[email protected]>

Subject: INTAS project
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1998 10:38:59 +0500
Reply-to: "Stepan G. Shiyatov" <[email protected]>
Dear Keith,
Some days ago I came back from the Polar Ural Mountains. I was there
about 30 days making photos from the points where I have made photos
xxx xxxx xxxxyears ago and evaluating the changes which were happened during
this period. Unfortunately, Rashit could not be able to go to the
Yamal Peninsula for collecting subfossil wood this summer as a result
of deficiency of money.
I am glad that we have been successful in INTAS proposal. Financial

situation in our country so terrible that we will not work
successfully without support from international grants.
Yesterday I have sent by post the signed form (official power of

attorney). If you have any additional information concerning this
grant, please give me know.
I wish the best to you, your family and Phil.
Sincerely yours
Stepan Shiyatov
[email protected]

Emails
Subject: RE: WGI emissions/scenarios conference
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 1998 09:15 +0000 (GMT)
Mike
I think the problem is the same one as in 1988 and 1994. In order to answer the
question: "what is IPCC's best estimate of climate change over the next hundred
years, and the uncertainties?" we need a single best estimate of emissions (plus
a range of uncertainty). In the same way as modellres say "here is our best
estimate of climate sensitivity plus a range" then the SRES group should do the
same thing. Of course they can make all the usual disclaimers and talk about
surprises just as the climate modellers do. But NOT to come up with an estimate
for a Business as Usual emissions scenario (plus a range, of 6GtC to 30GtC at
2100) seems to be ducking responsibilities. "Getting away from single number
answers" is very laudable scientifically, but it presents policymakers (for
whome the whole IPCC exercise is undertaken) with a problem. As long as there is
a central estimate and a range, the surely both communities could be happy, as
they ultimately were with BaU in 1990 and IS92a in 1995?
Geoff
-----Original Message-----
Sent: 15 September 1998 20:23
To: scenarios
Subject: WGI emissions/scenarios conference
Dear All,
Here are three comments on the questions raised by WGI TSU on 7 Sept. and
by some of the other contributions to the discussion about scenarios for
IPCC TAR. I am commenting from the perspective of a climate scenario
constructor servicing the impacts research community:
1. The SRES Working Group have identified 4 Marker Scenarios (out of a much
larger range, although these 4 largely capture the range). I think the
choice is good. I do not see why some modelling centres should not be able
to run all 4 emissions scenarios through their GCM. From an impacts
perspective I believe this would be very desirable and would enable a fair
range of climate change scenarios to be used in impacts work using direct
GCM output (without the need for scaling). And if all four Markers could
be run through more than one GCM (i.e., with different climate
sensitivities) then impacts work would have an even better sample of the
possible climate change space to analyse. These aspects of uncertainty
seem to me to be critical for impacts people (and integrated assessors) to
explore, to get us away from single number 'answers'.
2. If a single emissions scenario *has* to be adopted by some GCM groups,

B2 seems to have the recommendation from Naki (and maybe SRES too - the
storyline refers to it as 'dynamics as usual'). I think there are probably
good reasons why SO2 emissions fall so much in this storyline - regional
rather than global solutions and the encouragement of environmental
protection. The fact that the reduced C emissions relative to IS92a are
offset by the big fall in SO2 emissions (the net global warming in B2 is
actually slightly higher than IS92a if aerosol effects are included) should
simply be seen as a reflection of a more carefully worked out storyline
than was the case with IS92a. I do not think it a good idea (indeed, I
think it would be a very *bad* idea) for GCM centres to mix-and-match
elements of IS92 and SRES98 scenarios - the TAR should try and stick with
the SRES stories and emissions wherever possible. The internal consistency
in these storylines (and hopefully emissions) is important to maintain
(especially later on for impacts work), and the thinking behind the SRES
scenarios is considerably better than was achieved in the IS92 scenarios.
3. The problem of different Markers having different 1990 emissions values

(and the fact that 1990s C emissions diverge from those observed) is more
serious. By 2000 the four Markers range in C emissions from energy sources
from 6.6GtC (B1) to 8.0 GtC (A1). Given where we are right now (about
6.7GtC in 1997) it seems daft to have such a range for only 2 years hence
(as Tom Wigley has pointed out). For example, by the time TAR is published
we will know that A1 C emissions for 2000 are too high by, say, 15%.
Surely we need to impose a 'fix' on all 4 Markers to account for this.
Such amendment may occur as a result of the SRES 'open-process', but this
will take up to 12 months to be agreed and published. Should not someone
(WGI or WGIII TSUs) impose a temporary solution now for climate modellers?
Similarly, something needs to be done for CH4 and Nxxx xxxx xxxxemissions. CH4
1990 emissions range from 281 to 481Tg in the 4 Markers (compared with
506Tg in IS92). Surely this range is not defendable. I think at the least
we need some assurance from SRES that there has been some investigation
into these differences and that they will withstand scientific scrutiny in
peer review. Again, maybe the open-process may lead to revisions, but what
do climate modellers do in the meantime? [By the way, the difference in
global warming by 2100 that the SRES CH4 and N2O scenarios generates
relative to those in IS92a is between 0.05 and 0.3degC - lower in all cases].
Mike
****************************************************************************
Dr Mike Hulme
Reader in Climatology tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
School of Environmental Science email: [email protected]
Norwich NR4 7TJ
****************************************************************************
Mean temp. in Central England during 1998 is running
at about 1.2 deg C above the 1xxx xxxx xxxxaverage
***************************************************
The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly estimate for the
first half of 1998 was about +0.60 deg C above the 1xxx xxxx xxxxaverage,
the warmest such period yet recorded
****************************************************************************

Emails
Subject: No Subject
Date: Thu, 17 Sep 1998 10:35:xxx xxxx xxxx(EDT)
[email protected]
Dear Phil,
Thanks for your message. I've chosen to "expand" the distribution

list to include a few other individuals who can better address some
of the key points you raise.
A meeting in January built around the AMS meeting (which should

bring people into the Boulder vicinity) sounds like a good tentative
plan. Peck? I'm assuming everyone on this list is a potential
attendee...
As for your general comments, they get to some essential points.

The modeling community leaders are probably about as skeptical about
our paleo-reconstructions as we are of their sulphate aerosol
parameterizations, flux corrections (or more worrying, supposed
lack thereof in some cases!), and handling of the oh-so-important
tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interface...
So my personal philosophy is that more than one side here can
benefit from extending the olive branch, and there are a few
individuals in the modeling community who could benefit from slowing
down on the stone throwing from their fragile glass tower :)
More to the point, though, I strongly believe the paleo community

needs to present an honest but unified front regarding what we all
agree we can definitely, probably, and simply not yet say about
the climate of the past several centuries, and plan strategies
that will allow us all to work towards improved reconstructions
without stepping on each others toes. There's a challenge there,
but one I'm sure we can all rise to. I am grateful to Peck for
realizing that the time is ripe for a workshop in which we all
strategize as a group towards these ends. I believe we all go
into this in "good faith", and I'm very excited about what the
workshop might produce, in particular, in terms of effective
long-term strategies.
I share Phil's concern about getting things "straightened out"

before the IPCC report. As one of the lead authors on the
"observed climate variation and change" chapter for the 3rd assessment
report, a key goal of mine will
be to present fairly and accurately all of our different efforts,
and the common denominator amongst them...
I also understand all-to-well Phil's concerns about free data

exchange. In fact, we've been working closely w/ Peck to get
every aspect of our reconstructions, including calibration/verification
statistics, etc., available on-line at NGDC. The one catch w/ the
paleo network is that a few of the indicators we used were provided
us under conditions that they not yet be passed along (this includes,
I believe, the Morrocan tree rings, and some others. And at least
one important indicator--Malcolm's Yakutia record--was as yet
unpublished. Not myself knowing the details of the propietary
issues involved here, I have resisted simply putting our entire
multiproxy network out their for public consumption. But working
w/ Peck and Malcolm, I'm sure we can do this appropriately and
quickly. That's an example of a key issue that would be on the
table at the workshop in question.
--------------------PHIL'S MESSAGE TO PECK------------------------
Peck,
Thanks for the comments on the paper in The Holocene !
The paper stems from work Keith and I have been doing with the
Climate Change Detection group headed by Tim Barnett. It is
much toned down from some of the things about paleo data that
Tim and Simon Tett wanted to say. Long paleo series (either the
individual ones or regional/hemispheric averages) have got to
be good before these sorts of people will begin to use them and
believe they tell us something about variability in the past -
something that cannot be got from long control runs of GCMs.
A small meeting would be a good idea, therefore. Mike Mann
knows the next few times I'll be in the US. The first possible
date for him is the AMS annual meeting in Dallas in Jan 99 -
maybe we can tag something onto the end of this for a day or two.
I'll let you and Mike work something out on this. I'm also
in the US for a meeting on Climate Extremes which is tentatively
scheduled for March xxx xxxx xxxxin Asheville.
Prsentation of the paleo data is the key in all this. Tim
Barnett was somewhat horrified by the coherency diagrams he
produced (fig 9). He then produced Fig 10 from the GCM and
that was not much better. Hidden between the lines of the
paper is the theme that a number of us have been saying for
years ( especially Ray and Malcolm) that the LIA and MWE
were not that global and not that different from today's
temperatures. Mike's paper in Nature reiterates this. Keith
and I have been thinking of writing a forum piece for The
Holocene addressing in somewhat provocative terms what
paleoclimatologists should be doing with regard the detection
issue and to some extent with respect to science in general -
should be continue using terms like LIA and MWE for example.
We hope to address many of the issues you make in your email -
seasonality, consistency of the proxy through time, goodness
of the proxy etc. We need to come up with some agreed strategy
on this especially with IPCC coming up.
What we did in the paper was one way of assessing proxy
quality. Something like Tables 2 and 4 are what is required
though to inform the uninitiated (modellers) about proxy data.
For use in detection at the moment a paleo series has to be a
proxy for temperature. I know proxies tell us about other aspects
of the climate as well, but a clear, unambiguous temperature
signal is what is needed.
Some other quick answers -
1) Happy to send to you all the series and the hemispheric values.
I hope Mike will send all his as well, but the last time we
discussed this he said that some could not be made freely
available. This isn't Mike's fault but there are still
some stumbling blocks to free exchange of data within the
various paleo communities.
2) We all know the quality of proxies changes with time. Trees

don't have dating problems but do have the reduction in
sample depths you talk about. Dendro people are much more
open about this though than the coral and especially the
ice core communitites.
3) Trees may not grow everywhere but they are more global in extent
than the others. There are also many more chronologies
available and this is a factor. We had much more choice there
than in the other paleo groups.
4) Whilst we are taking bets, proxies will never be better than

instrumental data. Corals will eventually extend the SOI
series but never be better than it for the years after 1850.
Similarly with the NAO. Instrumental data exists to extend
this to about 1750 and the fact that such data is sitting
out there is only just begining to be realised. A great NAO
reconstruction could be produced if the real data extended
over nearly 200 years, enabling the low-frequency aspects
to be considered in much more detail than ever before
( a la Stahle with the SOI).
That's enough for now.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 xxx xxxx xxxxUniversity of
East Anglia
Norwich Email [email protected]
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
_______________________________________________________________________
Michael E. Mann
Amherst, MA 01003
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: [email protected] (normal)
[email protected] (attachments)

Emails

To: "Jenkins, Geoff" <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: palaeo data
Date: Fri Sep 18 12:36:xxx xxxx xxxx
Dear Geoff
it good to hear from you. By now you may know that we had a small working meeting
to consider the current draft of the thematic bid yesterday in London. Simon
Tett , Nick Shackleton , Paul Valdes and I really did get to grips with a lot of
the important details concerning the way in which such a project might actually
run. We are going for a joint Earth science/Atmospheric Science Board application
for 8 million to run over 5 years. Simon told us about your offer of some support
- perhaps as money , perhaps as some equivelent- and the spirit of the offer is
much appreciated. Frankly, the fact that you consider this a worthy and valid
scientific exercise is what really gives me cheer. We have a long way to go to
really sort out many of the problems with the palaeo data and with the methodology
of using them in a validation and/or detection context, but I genuinely believe
this approach will yield rewards somewhere down the line. I think our support from
the earth science side is very probable. The politics of the Atmospheric Board -
and the potential clash with other initiatives coming from Reading - mean that
their support ( in any meaningful sense) can't be thought of as more than
possible. I suppose we may have something like a near 50 % chance of eventually
getting some money , but 50% is pretty good. I will now ammend the document to
show an explicit requirement for formal supervisory input on the programme from
the Hadley Centre and I acknowledge that there will be no blanket release of data
whatever happens. I will forward the application to you soon. If we get through
the outline agreement stage with NERC , we will surely revisit these practical
details , along with others. For now I simply say thanks to you and John for your
support , and thanks for the input of Simon and Peter Cox. I will stay in touch as
and when things develop. Even if we fail here, the science imperative will mean
that we find other means of working with you -most likely through an EC grant - on
these issues.
Thanks again and I hope you are bearing up under the strain of recent troubles
Keith
At 11:53 AM 9/14/98 +0100, you wrote:

>Keith
>
>Im afraid I dont have your original email abou you proposal for oa thematic
>programme on palaeo data - we just got converted to Windows NT and I have
>wiped my old emails by mistake.
>
>We would be very supportive of a programme which delivered better estimates
>of natural variability of climate over the past 1000 yrs globally and
>regionally which, as I recall, is the main aim.
>
>What do you want me / us to do, ie a letter to someone in NERC or you from
>me/ Dave Carson/ Paul Mason saying ho w important the topic is and that we
>would be immediate users of deliverables etc?
>
>Let me know and I will draft something. Can you re-email what you set please
>- sorry.
>
>Cheers
>Geoff
>

Emails

Subject: Re: PAGES Open Science Meeting publication
Date: Fri Sep 18 12:57:xxx xxxx xxxx
Ray
this is simply to say that I will get my paper to you as soon as I can. Frank
knows that I am currently involved with writing a bid on behalf of the earth
science community to try to extract 8 million pounds for a 5 year project from
NERC to support Palaeo/Modelling validatin work. I was not allowed to say no to
this request and it is involving me in a lot of meetings and associated crap. I am
now redrafting the proposal. Also I must write my application to NERC for a
fellowship - if this fails Sarah and I are unemployed after December as things
stand. God knows there is little chance of success but the application must be in
be the end of September and I have not started it yet. This is a big deal for me
and I am putting you down as my primary suggested scientific referee. The PAGES
paper can only be done in mid October and I really need your and Frank's
understanding on this. I had to do the Thematic bid proposal as Nick Shackleton
asked me to , and I want to put him down as my primary Personal reference! In
early October I have to attend a NERC Earth Science Board meeting to defend the
Thematic bid; a meeting of PEP3 in Belgium;a UK CLIVAR meeting in London; an EC
meeting to present our ADVANCE-10K results in Vienna. This is not bullshit. I will
do the PAGES meetin paper as fast as I can and you must please allow me the leeway
. Sorry - but this will not really hold the publication up . If I could sort out
some funding I could afford to drop some of these things but with the EC future
also up in the air at the moment , I have to try to juggle these things. Sorry
again Ray
Keith

>This is a reminder that the due date for your paper to be reviewed for the
>Special edition of Quaternary Science Reviews was August 31....unless you
>made a special deal with me (and have sent your checks to my Swiss bank
>account) you should send me your manuscript AS SOON AS POSSIBLE!!!
>
>Thanks
>
>Ray
>
>
>Raymond S. Bradley
>Professor and Head of Department
>Department of Geosciences
>University of Massachusetts
>Amherst, MA 01xxx xxxx xxxx
>Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
>Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>Climate Lab: xxx xxxx xxxx
>Climate Lab Web Site: <http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate>
>
>Chairman IGBP-PAGES
>Scientific Steering Committee
>Baerenplatz 2
>Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
>Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>EMail: [email protected]
>PAGES Web Site: <http://www.pages.unibe.ch>
>
>

Emails
From: "Jonathan T. Overpeck" <[email protected]>

To: Phil Jones <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: climate of the last millennia...
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1998 12:17:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: [email protected], ray bradley <[email protected]>,
[email protected]
Hi Phil - thanks for your detailed reply to my email. I look forward to
working with you and the rest of the gang to really improve the state of
paleo contributions to the detection/attribution issue. The earlier we get
a small group together, the better, so I suggest we try to take you up on
the AMS add-on idea. It would be ideal to have a 1 to 1.5day mtg in Boulder
since we have many of the needed perspectives (ice core, coral, seds, data,
etc) here. What would be the best dates for you (and Keith - I'm hoping
he'll be up for this too). We can find the extra $$ to get folks to Boulder
and have a quality time (do you ski?).
Once we set the dates with you (PLEASE SEND FAVORED DATES), Mike and Ray,
we can set the agenda. The main thing is that it would set the stage for
the extra degree of data sharing we'll need before the planned Santorini
mtg (still no dates - please bug Jean-Claude!!). Sound ok?
As for the data from your paper, I'd like to get them up with the data from
the other studies on the WDC www site asap. (JUST LET ME KNOW HOW!) The
White House is interested in knowing the state-of-the-art, and if we can
get everything together at one www site (including data and figs), I think
I can get some needed visibility for the paleo perspective. You probably
know this, but Henry Pollack's Borehole view of things (similar conclusions
to the other recent papers) is about to appear in Science. Although each
proxy and method does have it's limitations and biases, the multiproxy view
is compelling with regard to the patterns of temp change over the past
several centuries. The IPCC next time around should be much stronger than
last on the paleo side of things (although still not as good as it can
get!).
Of course, I'll continue to work with Mike and Ray to get the rest of the
individual series out into the public domain. Santorini should be the goal
- not alowwed on the island without coughing up data first!
Aloha and thanks again! Peck
Dr. Jonathan T. Overpeck

Head, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program
National Geophysical Data Center
325 Broadway E/GC
Boulder, CO 80303
tel: xxx xxxx xxxx

fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
[email protected]
For OVERNIGHT (e.g., Fedex) deliveries,

PLEASE USE:
Dr. Jonathan Overpeck

NOAA National Geophysical Data Center
3100 Marine Street, RL3, Rm A136
Boulder, CO 80303
tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
Emails
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1998 14:28:xxx xxxx xxxx(EDT)
Hi Peck,
Thanks for ccing the message. I was talking to Ed Cook at

a NASA workshop we both attended a couple weeks ago, and
he also expressed quite a bit of interest in attending
the mini-meeting, since he'll be going to the AMS meeting
to.
When is the meeting? Do other people prefer just before or

just after the meeting for the workshop. Either probably
works easily well for me at this point, since I won't have
teaching committments at that point.
Looking forward to us finalizing a plan!
mike
_______________________________________________________________________
Michael E. Mann
Amherst, MA 01003
_______________________________________________________________________

Emails

Subject: Meeting on SRES Scenarios, 1 October 1998
Date: Thu, 01 Oct 1998 21:57:23 +0200
Dear Colleagues,
A meeting was held today on SRES scenarios during the IPCC plenary session
in Vienna. The meeting was organized by David Griggs, Fortunaat Joos,
Richard Moss, and Rob Swart. Also present were a number of delegates
including two Co-Chairs of IPCC, John Houghton from WGI and Bert Metz from
WGIII. Attached is a document with issues discussed during this meeting.
The meeting was very productive in my view, even though it was quite brief.
Two key issues were discussed that are listed in the attachment: (1)
incomplete information concerning SRES emissions as reported on the
website, and (2) consistency and plausibility of SRES scenarios and their
emissions.
(1) Incomplete information
There appeared to be a general consensus that the range of CO2 emissions

(especially energy-related ones) are in quite good agreement across the
SRES scenarios once one adds the missing emissions categories to all model
runs. They are also in a relatively good agreement with the ranges given
in SAR.
The SRES ranges of CH4 and N2O emissions did not appear to be a problem in
themselves, but they are considerably lower than the ranges given in SAR.
It was agreed to ask the SRES writing team to further harmonize the ranges
for the base year and the period 1990 to 2000 across the scenarios for CO2,
CH4 and N2O. At the same time, David Griggs will contact the colleagues
from WGI to inquire whether the emissions ranges for these gases as given
in SAR have changed in the mean time and will inform the SRES colleagues
soon about the result. In particular, he will check whether the non-energy
CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions ranges are still appropriate as best guess for
the 1990 situation and about any new numbers about the ranges for more
recent years. It was also suggested that the SRES writing team discuss the
reasons for relatively low CH4 emissions in 1990 compared with the SAR range.
Most of the SRES models do not generate CFC and HFC emissions but these
emissions are important for climate models. It was agreed that David
Griggs will inquire with climate modelers whether they really need all
species of these gases or whether it is sufficient to report their joint
emissions. SRES team is to report whether these emissions could be added
to most of the model runs and over which time-scale. Joergen Fenhann is
in touch with a number of colleagues on this issue already and he is
planning to make a specific proposal how to handle this question across
SRES scenarios.
SRES sulfur emissions are considerably lower than the IS92 range. There
are a number of reasons for this difference that were discussed at the
meeting. It was decided that this exchange should continue in the future
so that there is a better understanding of all issues involved. This is a
new aspect of SRES scenarios that represents an important change since
IS92a, a change that was also suggested by the 1994 IPCC review of
emissions scenarios.
The concern raised by Hugh Pitcher (in the WGI scenario discussion group)
about high productivity growth in A1 scenarios was briefly mentioned. This
issue is to be settled within the SRES writing team, possibly by including
the formulation of alternative scenario variants.
(2) Consistency and Plausibility
Most participants of the meeting expressed the need to have emissions

trajectories that are somehow normalized for all SRES scenarios for 1990
and that have the same trends through 2000 and diverge only thereafter
across different scenarios. This would meet the need of climate modelers
to work with the same starting points for all scenarios they model. One
suggestion was that SRES team simply takes midpoints of emissions ranges in
1990 and renormalizes all SRES emissions. Another proposal is that climate
modelers suggest their preferred values for 1990 to be used in
renormalization. In any case, the method that is used would need to be
well documented and cited in the relevant IPCC reports. This is necessary
so as not to introduce an artificial impression that there is a full
agreement on base-year emissions across SRES scenarios.
There were no specific suggestions how to harmonize short-term emissions

through 2000. This issues is to be discussed within the SRES writing team
and within the climate modeling community in order to collect emissions
data for the last years that could be used for such harmonization.
The issue was discussed of generally lower CO2 and SO2 emissions across the
range of SRES scenarios and in particular for B2 marker. This results in
lower GHG forcing and lower "negative" SO2 forcing. The total forcing
remains roughly the same as in IS92a but has fundamentally different
implications especially at regional level.
Most of the climate models will be in the position to use just a few
scenarios, in some case, may be just two. Possible ways of avoiding the
impression that there is a "preferred" scenario were discussed and there
was a consensus that somehow the message needs to be conveyed that the
whole set of SRES scenarios is plausible and that there is really no single
"central" case that can be compared with IS92a.
Climate models need gridded SO2 emissions while SRES models generate SO2
emissions for a number world regions. Mike Schlesinger and Steve Smith
will attend the next SRES meeting and it was suggested that Mike would use
his method to produce gridded SO2 emissions and that Steve would use the
method proposed by Tom Wigley to do the same. This way there would be two
alternative gridded emissions patterns for all SRES scenarios available to
user groups.
In conclusion, it was agreed that it would be useful to organize an

informal meeting where SRES colleagues could meet with potential user
groups from TAR (especially from WGI and WGII). Next possibility to do so
would be on the occasion of the WGI meeting in Paris, 30 November to 3
December. I am not quite sure that I got the dates right. The next
communication will be more precise.
Regards, Naki
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachsres_w~1.rtf"

Emails

To: [email protected],[email protected]
Subject: INTAS,Vienna and Norwich
Date: Fri Oct 2 10:51:xxx xxxx xxxx
Dear Stepan and Eugene ( and Fritz),

I have now receivd contracts from The EC for the INTAS work.
I have received the real signed Power Of Attorney form from Stepan , but not from
Eugene.
It seems I must have both . I am a bit reluctant to forge Eugene's signature! We
will need to think about how the money should be handled . Also please all go back
and look at the document I wrote and be sure you are happy with the committment.
The most important new aspect is the biomass work and I think new , or additional
collections need to be taken to look at the growth of young , medium and old trees
separately through time. We have very few recent young and middle age trees in
recent years. We could consider using data along north/south transects (how goes
the status of the Siberian Transect?).
Also, I must go to Vienna in 2 weeks to present the results of ADVANCE10K . We

have a meeting of this group here in Norwich in November but I am very sorry that
I have no funds to invite you to attend this. Could you afford a meeting some time
, perhaps in a neutral spot where we all (including Fritz) might get together to
talk about the INTAS work and future EC work? A state of the art report of
progress of the Taimyr and Yamal work is needed very soon ( by email),also so that
I can report on it in Vienna and Norwich. I am also writing a paper for PAGES for
the book of the conference in London that Rashit attended. I will include a report
of both projects , hopefully with some Figures of the data distribution or plots
of the some version of the curves themselves ( along with others at high
latitudes) . I would appreciate new copies of the full dated raw data sets , in
Tucson compact format, to produce some curves in a standard style. I would like to
compare changing variance through time at different wave lengths and perhaps co
spectra.
As for money on ADVANCE10K, I initially was awarded 50,000ECU to be split between

Krasnoyarsk and Ekaterinburg. Because of exchange rate changes , which have gone
against us continually since the start of the project, this is now worth between
0.2 and 0.25 LESS than it did then. I have looked at the remaining money and I
think I can give you each a final payment of between 4000 and 4500 US dollars.
This is not definate - but it is pretty definate! I hope this means you may be
able to do this year's fieldwork. We need to think also about how and if this
should be coordinted with the INTAS work - but maybe not? How about some
discussion by email regarding these points. I look forward to a quick reply.
my best wishes
Keith

Emails
From: Michael Prather <[email protected]>

To: TAR_scenarios <[email protected]>, penner <[email protected]>,
Prentice <[email protected]>, Ramaswamy <[email protected]>, derwent
<[email protected]>, isaksen <[email protected]>, ehhalt
<[email protected]>
Subject: TAR/SRES urgent use scenarios
Date: Sun, 04 Oct 1998 14:17:xxx xxxx xxxx
xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx

Prather's comments on SRES emissions regarding the four WGI
chapters on radiative forcing.
THIS ADDRESSES ONLY THE URGENT NEED

TO GET THE CLIMATE SCENARIOS STARTED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL: It is CRITICAL that the WGI chapters are involved in

and make decisions regarding the mapping of "emission scenarios"
onto "trace-gas/RF scenarios" (to then be used in generating
"climate scenarios"). This is needed so that the eventual
chapters will back these preliminary (and hurried) approaches and
present a consistent but updated (and more complete!) set of
similar RF calculations in the TAR. We should not be adding new
"volunteers" to calculate these forcings as has been suggested by
last week's notes until we clearly agree on the
rules/algorithms..
CO2: (WGI-Ch.3)
-----------------------
I have not heard from colleagues on Ch. 3 regarding carbon-cycle
models for these scenarios that would be consistent with their
pending chapter..
non-CO2 GASES: (WGI-Ch.4)

--------------------------------------
We need to make sure that the COMBINATION of adopted "atmospheric
chemistry" and emissions is consistent with recent observations.
It does not mean the total burden is on emissions. Once having
chosen the chemistry (i.e., 120 year "lifetime" for N2O today),
however, the current emissions are tied by observations. So we
will do as already stated "make emissions match observations" but
must be careful in the chapter to note this.
I see no obvious need to change the OH lifetimes (CH4, HFCs) and

the N2O lifetimes from the SAR. The debate over a trend in OH is
important for later analysis in the chapter. The key here is
for consistency with the past decade. The budget of 560 Tg(CH4)
/y is thus a balanced (steady-state) budget to match abundances
of about 1710 ppb, and the current increase of about 1-2 ppb/y
would then add about 3-5 Tg to this amount. Thus the rate of
growth of CH4 emissions in the SRES in one concern, but the
absolute level in the late 1990s is the most critical.
The IPCC97 Mosier & Kroeze N2O budget stands: natural = 9.0
TgN/y and anthrop = 7.2 TgN/y. Thus ALL of the N2O scenarios
need to be scaled. Is this by a time-independent offset (e.g., +
5.5 TgN/y for B2)? or do we multiply the anthropogenic by a
constant factor (e.g., 3 for B2)?
HFCs cannot be included as a bulk emission values since their

lifetimes are so varied. What could be done is to focus on a
single one as a surrogate, e.g., HFC-134a is the dominant RF from
the IS92a options calculated in the SAR. Is this still so? We
need to look at the projected HFC industry as in the last WMO
report.
O3 - as part of the IPCC/Aviation assessment (under SAR, now in

final government review) we spent considerable effort in
calculating the changes in O3 and the associated RF. This
included both changes due to aircraft alone and that due to
increases in CH4, CO, NOx, VOC described in IS92a. The 3-d
tropospheric chemistry models generally agreed upon the O3
changes, and it looks as though we shall be able to take the SAR
to the next step and predict changes in tropospheric ozone with a
community consensus. (The results were only for IS92a 2015 and
2050 atmospheres, RF's not fully analyzed for background , of
order 0.2 W/m2 for 2050.)
For the AOGCM scenarios I propose that we use these 2050 delta-O3
scenarios to "deliver" a zonal, annual mean O3 RF as a simple
function of latitude. It would be easier that transmitting the
perturbed O3 patterns to the AOGCMs and would accomplish the
primary goal of including the O3 RF. The IS92a 2050 pattern
would be scaled to the amount of NOx emitted and CH4
concentration (maybe). This is probably OK for now, but of
course the correlation of NOx and CO emissions in generating O3
and OH changes is "current science" that needs to be evaluated in
the chapter. Also the regional aspects of CO and NOx emissions
affect the O3 perturbation.
*****************************************************************
I would PROPOSE that WGI-Ch.4 define the algorithms (e.g., CH4
lifetime @ 1700 ppb plus
feedback factor and how to implement it) along with the
constraints of the 1990s and then let
the SRES scenario builders come up with a consistent set and send
these on to the AOGCMs.
*****************************************************************
SULFUR & other AEROSOLS: (WGI-Ch.5)

-------------------------------------------------------
The AOGCMs should NOT use their own sulfur cycle for the first of
the climate scenarios. There is little doubt that all will
produce vastly different negative RFs and hence different
regional climate response. As I remember listening to the
arguments for preparing these climate scenarios, the PRIMARY goal
is to assess how well/consistently we can predict future climate
and especially regional changes given a set of forcings.
Likewise, we do not want these scenarios generated from different
time lines for CO2, CH4, and O3 because the models have different
cycle for these gases. So why S? While many of these models may
have scientifically excellent S cycles and include indirect
impacts on cloud formation, this task (i.e., comparison of S
models in GCMs) should be the second tier of experiments.
Given the primary goals of these climate simulations by the

AOGCMs, it would seem best to specify a simple albedo/RF by lat-
long, ONE THAT Chapter 5 of the new TAR would advocate and
support in its chapter. (e.g., what is suggested by Chapter 4
for O3 above) For example, the current geographic pattern of
direct sulfate forcing has been studied and will obviously be
reviewed/summarized by WGI - Chapter 5; this could be scaled to
total S emissions, especially since they are dropping in most of
the SRES emission scenarios. It would still provide a basic test
of our predictions of regional climate across the AOGCMs.
There is nothing here to develop scenarios for other

anthropogenic aerosol forcings that appear to be important (i.e.,
organics and soot).
summary RF: (WGI-Ch.6)

-------------------------------
A potential issue here is the ability to de-convolve the
emissions and RFs per sector.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
--
Michael J. Prather, Prof. [email protected]
Earth System Science Dept xxx xxxx xxxx/fax-3256
UC Irvine, CA 92xxx xxxx xxxxhttp://www.ess.uci.edu

Emails
[email protected]
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1998 11:06:xxx xxxx xxxx(EDT)
Dear all,
I just wanted to thank Keith for his comments. They are right on target.
There is indeed, as many of us are aware, at least one key player in the
modeling community that has made overly dismissive statements about the
value of proxy data as late, because of what might be argued as his/her
own naive assessment/analysis of these data. This presents the danger of
just the sort of backlash that Keith warns of, and makes all the more
pressing the need for more of a community-wide strategizing on our part.
I think the workshop in Jan that Peck is hosting will go far in this
regard, and I personally am really looking forward to it!
cheers,
mike.
_______________________________________________________________________
Michael E. Mann
Amherst, MA 01003
_______________________________________________________________________

Emails

To: "Jonathan T. Overpeck" <[email protected]>, [email protected],
[email protected], Brian Luckman <[email protected]>
Date: Tue Oct 6 13:38:xxx xxxx xxxx
Hi Peck et al.
A little late but I'd like to put in my twopence worth regarding your original
message and Phil's reply. I have been tied up with a load of stuff so don't
interpret my lack of speedy response as a lack of interest in these matters.
My first comment is that I agree with all of your general remarks and with your
implied rebuke to Phil that we should be very wary of seeming to dam certain
proxies and over hype others when we all know that there are real strengths and
weaknesses associted with them all. The truth is that all of this group are well
aware of this and of the associated fact that even within each of these sub-
disciplines e.g. Dendro, coral etc. there is a large range of value , or concern
with the external usage of our data. However, my own and Phil's concerns are
motivated ,like yourself, by the outside world's inability to appreciate these
points and the danger that we will all be seen as uncritical or niave about the
real value of proxy data. The rationale for the recent Jones et al paper, and some
things that I have written in the past is to inform would be users , particularly
the modellers, that there are critical questions to be addressed about how the
palaeo-data are best used in a 'detection' or 'model validation' context. Many in
the palaeo-community understand these issues , but perhaps there has been some
reluctance to air them in sufficient depth or in the right situations where they
will be heard/seen by those people who now seek to use the data . I believe that
many of the modellers , having been blissfully unaware for years of the need to
work with the palaeo-community, are now expecting too much . This carries the
danger of a backlash as they undertake simple assessments of the palaeo-series and
conclude that they are all of very little use. The problem is that as we try to
inform them we may get the balance between valueable self criticism and scientific
flagellation wrong. The more so when the whip is seemingly aimed at others!
There is no doubt though, that many palaeo- types are not concerned with the
'bigger issues' of climate change , so it is up to those who do ,such as this
group, to try to sort out some sensible approach to how we do explore the good and
bad ,fairly, in our collective data and how we present this to the outside world.
The meeting you propose is a good way forward.If he is already not included, I
also urge you to invite Ed Cook.
I hate cold feet and I don't ski so I vote for anywhere away from snow.
To answer the question about the degradation in tree-ring chronology confidence

back in time - yes, we ( that is several of us in tree rings , and rising out of
them, in average temperature or rainfall series, have suggested a basis for
quantifying chronology error as a function of series replication and time-
dependent chages in the correlations of the series that go to form the mean
chronology. The problem is tricky because the error is timescale ( i.e frequency)
dependent also. This is just the chronology. Calculating confidence limits on
reconstructions derived from one or more chronologies must take account of the
regression error (again likely to be timescale dependent) while incorporating the
additional uncertainty associated with the chronology. When the reconstructions
are derived using a spatial transfer function ( such as in canonical correlation
or our similar Orthogonal Spatial Regression technique )the reconstruction at each
point in the predictand network has some ,different, uncertainty relating to the
error in each predictor series and the magnitude of its influence in the specific
regression equation relating to that point. Finally, as regards this issue, if you
have detrended or high-pass filtered the original predictor series in some way
(i.e. tree-ring standardisation) , you have some potential long-timescale
uncertainty around the final reconstruction which can not be represented by any
analyses of the remaining prdictors or their association with a relatively short
instrumental predictand series. I have a half drafted paper on this which I
intended to submit to Tree-Ring Bulletin - perhaps one day!
Your question about Jasper, the sample depth, in my opinion , IS responsible for
the early high values. So don't put much faith in the early warmth. We have
devised a simple method of scaling down the variance in average series to take
account of the inflated variance that occurs when a reduced number of series are
averaged - such as at the start of this chronology . We used this in our recent
Nature paper looking at a possible volcanic signal in the density data averaged
over the northern network. Ed has incorporated this in the latest version of his
super tree-ring standardisation/chronolgy construction program , but it was not
used in the Jasper work .
I agree that we must be careful not to appear to be knocking other proxies- even
if this is not intended . We must also be explicit about where problems lie and in
suggesting the ways to overcome them. I for one do not think the world revolves
only around trees. The only sensible way forward is through interpretation of
multiple proxies and we need much more work comparing and reconciling the
different evidence they hold. Let's have more balance in the literature and more
constructive dialogue /debate between ourselves.
Keith
At 02:38 PM 9/14/xxx xxxx xxxx, Jonathan T. Overpeck wrote:

>Hi Phil et al. - just read the Jones et al. Holocene paper (v. 8, p.
>xxx xxxx xxxx) and had a couple comments/questions....
>
>1) nice paper
>
>2) would you like to archive the reconstructions at the WDC-A for Paleo??
>It would be great to add them to existing recent ones (Cook et al. -
>drought; Mann et al. NH temp; Briffa et al. NH temp, Overpeck et al. Arctic
>temp). It would be ideal to get each of the 17 proxy records PLUS the
>hemispheric recons.
>
>3) regarding proxies, I wonder how much of the "quality" issue regarding
>ice cores and some other remote proxy records is due to there not being any
>instrumental stations near them (and at the same altitude)? Also, with
>respect to coral records, I get the feeling most in the coral community now
>think there is something "funny" about long Galapagos record (age model,
>maybe more - I think a new record is being generated). Also, many coral 18O
>records (e.g., New Caledonia) are influenced by both temp and salinity
>variations. This is a solid reason why the fit of such a record to temp
>won't be as good as you'd like (or as good as a buffo dendro record). I
>think Terry Quinn is generating the trace metal data to sort temp out.
>Lastly, I've now seen a number of coral records (most not published, but
>Tarawa is an example I think) where the proxy does as well as local
>instrumental data (in this case ppt) in getting the regional signal, AND
>the local instrumental record only go back to the war. I'm guessing, just
>between us, that ENSO recons based on proxies will soon be better than
>instrumental ones before 1950 - not just before 1850! In fact, I'd bet on
>it (using some of the money Ray still owes Julie!). Thus, I worry that it
>might not be wise to dismiss reconstructions on a proxy basis, particularly
>since trees lack one important trait - they don't work for all parts of the
>globe.
>
>4) About trees.... (Keith are you still reading?? - I sent this to Ed and
>Brian too, since they might have insights). Has anyone examined how a
>tree-ring recon degrades as a function of sample size back in time. I
>always see the quality of dendro recons cast as GREAT vs.other proxies (and
>they are) based on comparison with instrumental records. But, the dendro
>records usually have the best sample replication in this same instrumental
>period, and then tail off back in time. For example, Brian's Jasper recon
>has a sample depth of ca 28 trees in the last century, but drops off to ca.
>5 in the 12th century and 1 (?) in the 11th century. The "quality" of the
>recon must degrade too?? In contrast, some non-dendro reconstructions may
>not verify as well as dendro vs the instrumental record, but they might not
>degrade with time either since the sample density doesn't change with time.
>Thus, could it be that at some point back in time, the dendro records
>degrade to the same quality (or worse) than other proxies???
>
>5) Talking specifically about Jasper, it is interesting that the 20th
>century is as warm or warmer than everything in the last 1000 years EXCEPT
>before ca. 1110 AD. Since the sample depth before this time is 5 or less,
>how much faith should we put in those warmer than modern temps??
>
>6) I went to the trouble of all this mainly to A) get some feedback (and
>data into the WDC) and also B) to highlight that we need to extra careful
>in judging the quality of one proxy over or under another. If a well known
>group of paleo scientists suggest that, for example, corals are not that
>useful, then it might mean more years before we have a mutli-century
>record of tropical climate variability. I think it is clear that each proxy
>has limitations (and I like the table 2 idea of Jones et al), but the real
>need is to understand that each record (not just each proxy) has pros and
>cons, and that wise use requires knowing these pros/cons. Some coral, ice
>core and sediment records are no doubt better than some dendro records
>(also, for example, with respect to reconstructing low frequency variations
>in climate). I'm NOT trying to dis tree-rings, but rather to suggest more
>balance in what we all say in the literature.
>
>7) Lastly, I think there is a need to have a small workshop to put together
>an expanded version of Jones' et al. table 2, and, more importantly, to set
>some guidelines for data generators in terms of the kinds of data and meta
>data that need to be archived to ensure best use of the data (for example,
>information of the nature of the climate signal and what might bias it -
>like the salinity effect on a coral record or method of standardization on
>a dendro record). Also, we need guidelines on what info should be archived
>with a climate reconstruction (for example, are error bars available; if
>not, why not - there are often good reasons, but the interdisicplinary user
>might not get it). It might be best if the database could be upgreaded, so
>that users would know, for example, that a proxy record or recon they want
>to use has some recently discovered problem or verification.
>
>I've asked Mike Mann if he'd like to help put together such a workshop with
>me, and I think I have some US funding for it - it would be small, with
>just a couple folks from each proxy plus some folks like Phil and Mike who
>are well-know users of paleo data. Like the idea??
>
>Thx for reading this far. Cheers, Peck
>
>Dr. Jonathan T. Overpeck
>Head, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program
>National Geophysical Data Center
>325 Broadway E/GC
>Boulder, CO 80303
>
>tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
>fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>[email protected]
>
>For OVERNIGHT (e.g., Fedex) deliveries,
>PLEASE USE:
>
>Dr. Jonathan Overpeck
>NOAA National Geophysical Data Center
>3100 Marine Street, RL3, Rm A136
>Boulder, CO 80303
>tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
>
>
>
>
>

Emails
From: Rashit Hantemirov <[email protected]>

Subject: Short report on progress in Yamal work
Date: Fri, 9 Oct 1998 19:17:12 +0500
Reply-to: Rashit Hantemirov <[email protected]>
Dear Keith,
I apologize for delay with reply. Below is short information about

state of Yamal work.
Samples from 2,172 subfossil larches (appr. 95% of all samples),

spruces (5%) and birches (solitary finding) have been collected within
a region centered on about 67030'N, 70000'E at the southern part of
Yamal Peninsula. All of them have been measured.
Success has already been achieved in developing a continuous larch

ring-width chronology extending from the present back to 4999 BC. My
version of chronology (individual series indexed by corridor method)
attached (file "yamal.gnr"). I could guarantee today that last
4600-years interval (2600 BC - 1996 AD) of chronology is reliable.
Earlier data (5000 BC - 2600 BC) are needed to be examined more
properly.
Using this chronology 1074 subfossil trees have been dated. Temporal
distribution of trees is attached (file "number"). Unfortunately, I
can't sign with confidence the belonging to certain species (larch or
spruce) of each tree at present.
Ring width data of 539 dated subfossil trees and 17 living larches are
attached (file "yamal.rwm"). Some samples measured on 2 or more radii.
First letter means species (l- larch, p- spruce, _ - uncertain), last
cipher - radius. These series are examined for missing rings. If you
need all the dated individual series I can send the rest of data, but
the others are don't corrected as regards to missing rings.
Residuary 1098 subfossil trees don't dated as yet. More than 200 of
them have less than 60 rings, dating of such samples often is not
confident. Great part undated wood remnants most likely older than
7000 years.
Some results (I think, the temperature reconstruction you will done

better than me):
Millennium-scale changes of interannual tree growth variability have

been discovered. There were periods of low (5xxx xxxx xxxxBC), middle
(2xxx xxxx xxxxBC) and high interannual variability (1700 BC - to the
present).
Exact dating of hundreds of subfossil trees gave a chance to clear up

the temporal distribution of trees abundance, age structure, frequency
of trees deaths and appearances during last seven millennia.
Assessment of polar tree line changes has been carried out by mapping
of dated subfossil trees.
According to reconsructions most favorable conditions for tree growth

have been marked during 5xxx xxxx xxxxBC. At that time position of tree
line was far northward of recent one.
[Unfortunately, region of our research don't include the whole area
where trees grew during the Holocene. We can maintain that before 1700
BC tree line was northward of our research area. We have only 3 dated
remnants of trees from Yuribey River sampled by our colleagues (70 km
to the north from recent polar tree line) that grew during 4xxx xxxx xxxx
and 3xxx xxxx xxxxBC.]
This period is pointed out by low interannual variability of tree
growth and high trees abundance discontinued, however, by several
short xxx xxxx xxxxyears) unfavorable periods, most significant of them
dated about 4xxx xxxx xxxxBC. Since about 2800 BC gradual worsening of
tree growth condition has begun. Significant shift of the polar tree
line to the south have been fixed between 1700 and 1600 BC. At the
same time interannual tree growth variability increased appreciably.
During last 3600 years most of reconstructed indices have been varying
not so very significant. Tree line has been shifting within 3-5 km
near recent one. Low abundance of trees has been fixed during
1xxx xxxx xxxxBC and xxx xxxx xxxxBC. Relatively high number of trees has been
noted during xxx xxxx xxxxAD.
There are no evidences of moving polar timberline to the north during
last century.
Please, let me know if you need more data or detailed report.
Best regards,
Rashit Hantemirov
Lab. of Dendrochronology
Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology
8 Marta St., 202
Ekaterinburg, 620144, Russia
Fax: +7 (34xxx xxxx xxxx; phone: +7 (34xxx xxxx xxxx
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachyamal.rwm"
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachYamal.gnr"

Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachNumber"

Emails
From: Rashit Hantemirov <[email protected]>

Subject: Re: Your data- a reference?
Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 12:46:54 +0500
Reply-to: Rashit Hantemirov <[email protected]>
Dear Keith,
below is the list of publications concerning Yamal chronology.
References of russian articles are in three forms:

a) original russian text. I am afraid you will be not able to read
(see) it without any russian driver. Therefore, if you need this form
of reference, please see attached file as well (.doc file) using
attached russian font;
b) russian words written by english letters;
c) english translation (excuse me for my english).
1. Hantemirov, R.M. A 2,305 year tree-ring reconstruction of mean

June-July temperature deviations in the Yamal Peninsula //Int. Conf.
on Past, Present and Future Climate: Proc. of the SILMU conf.
Helsinki, Finland, xxx xxxx xxxxAugust 1995 /Publication of the Academy of
Finland 6/95.- Helsinki, 1995.- P. xxx xxxx xxxx.
2. U`mrelhpnb P.L., Qspjnb @.^. 3243-kerm dpebeqmn-jnk|veb`

pejnmqrpsjvh jkhl`rhweqjhu sqknbhi dk qebep` Gò`dmni Qhahph //
Opnakel{ nayei h ophjk`dmni }jnknchh (L`reph`k{ lnkndefmni
jnmtepemvhh).- Ej`rephmaspc, 1996.- Q. xxx xxxx xxxx.
Hantemirov R.M., Surkov A.Yu. 3243-letnyaya drevesno-kol'cevaya

rekonstrukciya klimaticheskich usloviy dlya severa Zapadnoy Sibiri //
Problemy obshchey i prikladnoy ekologii (Materialy molodezhnoy
konferencii).- Ekaterinburg, 1996.- S. xxx xxxx xxxx.
Hantemirov R.M., Surkov A.Yu. A 3243-year tree-ring reconstruction of

climatic conditions for the north of West Siberia // Problems of
general and applied ecology (Proceedings of young scientists
conference).- Ekaterinburg, 1996.- P. xxx xxxx xxxx.
3. Xhrnb Q.C., U`mrelhpnb P.L., L`geo` B.Q. Onbeqr| _l`k|qjhu ker.

Kernohq| hglememhi jkhl`r` m` _l`ke g` onqkedmhe rph r{qwekerh,
gòhq`mm` b cndhwm{u jnk|vù depeb|eb. // _l`k - qnjpnbhymhv`
Pnqqhh.- 1996.- N 4.- Q. 6-7.
Shiyatov, S.G., Hantemirov, R.M., Mazepa V.S. Povest' Yamal'skich

let. Letopis' izmeneniy klimata na Yamale za posledniye tri
tysyacheletiya, zapisannaya v godichnych kol'zach derev'ev // Yamal -
sokrovishchnica Rossii.- 1996.- N 4.- S. 6-7.
Shiyatov, S.G., Hantemirov, R.M., Mazepa V.S. The tale of Yamal's

years [summers]. A chronicle of climate changes on Yamal during last
three millennia recorded in tree rings. // Yamal - the treasury of
Russia.- 1996.- N 4.- P.6-7.
I am sorry, it is difficult for me to translate properly the title of

this article in the popular magazine.
4. Shiyatov, S.G., Hantemirov, R.M., Schweingruber, F.H., Briffa K.R.

and Moell M. Potential long chronology development on the northwest
Siberian plain: Early results // Dendrochronologia.- 1996.- V. 14.- P.
13-29.
5. B`c`mnb E.@., Xhrnb Q.C., U`mrelhpnb P.L., M`spgaèb L.L.

Hglemwhbnqr| kermei reloep`rsp{ bngdsu` b b{qnjhu xhpnrù Qebepmncn
onksx`ph g` onqkedmhe 1.5 r{q. ker: qp`bmhrek|m{i `m`khg d`mm{u
cndhwm{u jnkev depeb|eb h kednb{u jnknmnj // Dnjk. @M.- 1997.- R. 358,
9 5.- Q. xxx xxxx xxxx.
Vaganov E.A., Shiyatov, S.G., Hantemirov, R.M., Naurzbaev M.M.

Izmenchivost' letney temperatury vozducha v vysokich shirotach
Severnogo polushariya za posledniye 1.5 tys. let: sravnitel'nyy
analiz dannych godichnych kolec derev'ev i ledovych kolonok //
Doklady Akademii Nauk.- 1997.- T. 358, N 5.- S. xxx xxxx xxxx.
Vaganov E.A., Shiyatov, S.G., Hantemirov, R.M., Naurzbaev M.M.

Variability of summer air temperature in high latitudes of the
Northern Hemisphere during last 1.5 thousand years: comparative
analysis of tree-ring and ice core data // Proceedings of the
[Russian] Academy of Sciences.- 1997.- V. 358, N 5.- P. xxx xxxx xxxx.
Papers in press expected to be published this year:
6. U`mrelhpnb P.L. Dpebeqmn-jnk|veb` pejnmqrpsjvh kermhu reloep`rsp

m` qebepe Gò`dmni Qhahph g` onqkedmhe 3248 ker // Qha. }jnk. f..-
1998.-R. 5, N 5 (b oew`rh).
Hantemirov R.M. Drevesno-kol'cevaya rekonstrukciya letnich temperatur

na severe Zapadnoy Sibiri za posledniye 3248 let // Sibirskii
ecologicheskii zhurnal.- 1998.- T. 5, N 5 (v pechati).
Hantemirov R.M. Tree ring reconstruction of summer temperatures on

the north of West Siberia during last 3248 years // Siberian
Ecological Journal.- 1998.- V. 5, N 5 (in press)
There is English version of this journal
7. U`mrelhpnb P.L. 4309-kerm upnmnknch dk _l`k` h ee hqonk|gnb`mhe

dk pejnmqrpsjvhh hqrnphh jkhl`rhweqjhu hglememhi m` qebepe Gò`dmni
Qhahph. // Opnakel{ }jnknchweqjncn lnmhrnphmc` h lndekhpnb`mh
}jnqhqrel.- QOa.: Chdpnlerenhgd`r, 1998.- R. 17.- (b oew`rh)
Hantemirov R.M. 4309-letnyaya chronologiya dlya Yamala i yeyo

ispol'zovaniye dlya rekonstrukcii istorii klimaticheskich izmeneniy
na severe Zapadnoy Sibiri // Problemy ecologicheskogo monitoringa i
modelirovaniya ekosistem.- SPb.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1998.- T.17 (v
pechati).
Hantemirov R.M. A 4309 year chronology for Yamal and its use for
reconstruction of climatic changes history on the north of West
Siberia // Problems of ecological monitoring and modelling of
ecosystems.- S.Petersburg: Gidrometeoizdat, 1998.- V.17 (in press)
8. U`mrelhpnb P.L., Xhrnb Q.C. P`dhnsckepndm{e h

demdpnupnmnknchweqjhe d`rhpnbjh onkshqjnoèlni dpebeqhm{ m` _l`ke h hu
hqonk|gnb`mhe dk hgswemh dhm`lhjh keqnrsmdpnb{u }jnqhqrel. // Ahnr`
Ophsp`k|qjni Qsa`pjrhjh b ongdmel okeiqrnveme h cnknveme.
Ej`rephmaspc, hgd-bn "Ej`rephmaspc", 1998 (b oew`rh).
Hantemirov R.M., Shiyatov S.G. Radiouglerodnyye i

dendrochronologicheskiye datirovki poluiskopayemoy drevesiny na
Yamale i ich ispol'zovaniye dlya izucheniya dinamiki lesotundrovych
ekosistem // Biota Priural'skoy Subarktiki v pozdnem pleistocene i
golocene. Ekaterinburg, izdatel'stvo "Ekaterinburg", 1998 (v pechati)
Hantemirov R.M., Shiyatov S.G. Radiocarbon and dendrochronological

datings of subfossil wood from Yamal and their using to study
forest-tundra ecosystems dynamic // Biota of [near]Ural Subarctic
during the late Pleistocene and the Holocene. Ekaterinburg,
publishing house "Ekaterinburg", 1998 (in press)
9. Xhrnb Q. C., U`mrelhpnb P. L. Demdpnupnmnknchweqj` d`rhpnbj`

dpebeqhm{ jsqr`pmhjnb hg `puenknchweqjncn onqekemh _pre-6 m`
onksnqrpnbe _l`k // Dpebmnqrh _l`k`. Rnank|qj, 1998 (b oew`rh).
Shiyatov S.G., Hantemirov R.M. Dendrochronologicheskaya datirovka

drevesiny kustarnikov iz archeologicheskogo poseleniya Yarte-6 na
poluostrove Yamal // Drevnosti Yamala. Tobol'sk, 1998 (v pechati)
Shiyatov S.G., Hantemirov R.M. Dendrochronological dating of shrubs

wood from archeological settlement "Yarte-6" on the Yamal Peninsula //
Antiquities of Yamal. Tobolsk, 1998 (in press).
I am not quite get your question about fieldwork. You mean "this year"
is 1998? If so it is too late now, on southern part of Yamal yesterday
was about -10 C. Next year we plane fieldwork, final decision about
where and when we will make in the beginning of next year. I would
like to go to Yuribey River, northward of our usual research area.
Best regards,
Rashit Hantemirov
8 Marta St., 202
Fax: +7 (34xxx xxxx xxxx; phone: +7 (34xxx xxxx xxxx
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattacharticles.doc"
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachTimcyr.ttf"

Emails
From: Sarah Raper <[email protected]>

Subject: Scenarios Conference - Simple Models
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 13:25:07 +0100
3. Use of simple climate models
3.1 Simple models used only as tools for extrapolationg/interpolationg GCM

results to estimate the effect of different scenarios or sensitivities?
1-D UD/EBMs (upwelling-diffusion energy balance models), such as the Wigley

and Raper (1992) model updated in Raper et al. (1996), in my opinion, come
into this category. I along with Jonathan Gregory and Tim Osborn have
completed a very detailed comparison of this and several alternative 1-D
models with HadCM2 results. With the addition of a sea ice parameter the
Raper et al. model reproduces well the HadCM2 results for global mean
surface temperature and thermal expansion out to 2100, for several scenarios.
However, the distinction between 3.1 and 3.2 below is not clearcut. By the
end of the 900 year 2xCO2 experiment the thermal expansion for the HadCM2
model is nearly 5 times larger than that simulated by the fitted (over
1xxx xxxx xxxx) UD/EBM, and unlike the UD/EBM shows no sign of coming to
equilibrium. In our analysis we conclude that it is not immediately obvious
which if either model is correct. The difference serves to highlight the
uncertainty in the thermal expansion commitment. Incidently a fitted pure
diffusion/EBM gives good simulation of the HadCM2 results in both the short
and long term.
3.2 Simple models used to offer independent climate predictions?
It would probably be difficult to use 2+D models for 3.1, so they may belong
here.
I think, 3.1 and 3.2 serve different purposes. Both may be desirable.
3.3 Depending on the answers to 3.1 and 3.2......
Whichever 3.1, 3.2 or both is adopted the results and the attendant simple
model versus A/OGCM comparisons should be given in the projections chapter.
A selection of the results should then carry over to the sea level chapter.
This consistency is very important.
It is a separate question as to whether the simple climate model results

should subsequently be used as scaling factors for regional scenario
development in the scenario chapter.
3.4 How many simple climate models are needed...
For 3.1 in order to fit the A/OGCM results extensive comparisons using
alternative parameter values/models (for example, UD versus pure diffusion)
will be necessary. As well as my HadCM2 comparison mentioned above a
comparison with ECHAM3/LSG results is also well underway. In both cases the
work shows that it is advisable to calculate the effective climate
sensitivity of the A/OGCMs for use in the simple model. We found that the
effective climate sensitivity is non-constant but apparantly varies with the
surface temperature in these models. For this calculation and for
comprehensive model comparisons a specific list of A/OGCM output is
required. This includes decade ocean mean temperature profiles, a measure of
the strength of the thermohaline circulation, the A/OGCM forcing change for
2xCO2 etc. I am keen to continue these comparisons specifically as input to
the new IPCC assessments. Unfortunately, and I think mistakenly, the US DOE
have recently decided to discontinue this line of research. An endorsement
of the need for this work by the IPCC would help my attempts to acquire
funding elsewhere.
For 3.2 there would be no need of tuning to A/OGCM results and many model
results could be used to give a range. This would serve a different purpose
to 3.1 where A/OGCM results are interpolated/extrapolated for different
sensitivities and forcings.
---------------------------
| Dr S. C. B. Raper |
| Climatic Research Unit |
| University of East Anglia |
| Norwich |
| NR4 7TJ |
| |
| Tel. xxx xxxx xxxx |
| Fax xxx xxxx xxxx |
---------------------------

Emails
From: Mike Hulme <[email protected]>

Subject: scenarios e-conf., session 3
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 18:22:30 +0100
> 3. Use of simple climate models:

> 3.1 Simple models used only as tools for
> extrapolating/interpolating GCM results to estimate the effect of different
> scenarios or sensitivities?
> 3.2 Simple models used to offer independent climate
> predictions?
> 3.3 Depending on the answers to 3.1 and 3.2, where will
> the assessment of simple model results be located within the TAR (under the
> projections or the scenarios Chapter or under an Appendix?)
> 3.4 How many simple climate models are needed (again
> depending on 3.1 and 3.2)?
I wish to pick up on two of the points raised by Sarah Raper and Jonathan
Gregory which, while not directly answering the questions posed above, need
a clear position being taken upon by IPCC. These two points are:
>From Gregory ......

"The presentation of a wide range of scenarios and
sensitivities (3.1) will be a very important output of the TAR. Tom Wigley
argues that it would be inappropriate to relegate it to an Appendix. None-
theless it is different from the discussion and assessment of models which
produce the basic projections of climate change and sea-level. I think both
climate change and sea-level chapters should have separate, final, sections
devoted specifically to showing the full range of uncertainties and the best
estimates - an appendix to each chapter. The figures given there will be
brought together in the summary of the TAR."
This is a very important concern from the perspective of how Chapter 13
(climate scenarios) is written and how WGII will look over their shoulder
to WGI. For many reasons which have been well-articulated elsewhere, it is
too much to expect complete consistency from WGIII emissions, to WGI models
and to WGII impacts - the lags in the knowledge creation and ratification
are too great. However, bear in mind that most GCM results used for
climate scenario construction will be 1% per annum forcing (plus a few with
0.5% forcing, stabilisation forcing or one or more of the new SRES
forcings, but these latter GCM results are unlikely to feed forward into
(much) impacts work in time). However, for much impacts work to be
properly assessed and interpreted by IPCC it is necessary to have used a
range of climate scenarios spanning a range of risk. This is difficult,
nay impossible, without resorting to simple climate model results. If WGI
can Fast-track this generation of headline projections spanning a range of
forcings and sensitivities, then this information may be made use of by
climate scenario developers and impacts analysts. If not, then WGI
(Chapters 9 and 11) will be saying one thing, and all the impacts work is
in danger of saying something else (e.g. using IS92 forcings with the SAR
Chapter 6 simple model projections). At worst, some careful post-hoc
re-interpretation of WGII results may be necessary in light of WGI for the
policymakers summary and most importantly for the Synthesis Report.
>From Raper .......

"It is a separate question as to whether the simple climate model results
should subsequently be used as scaling factors for regional scenario
development in the scenario chapter."
This is indeed a separate question and one on which Chapter 13 can and will
'assess' the science. Scaling of GCM results has been widely used by
impacts/integrated assessors since CRU started using this methodology in
the early 1990s. Whether or not to adopt/recommend scaling methods for the
IPCC TAR was side-stepped by the TGCIA, although it was clearly stated
within the TGCIA that basing all impacts work on 1% p.a. forced GCMs which
represented a narrow range of climate sensitivities, would skew impacts
results in a particular (and not altogether desirable) direction. Chapter
13 will also recognise this problem and will assess the pros and cons of
scaling based on simple models, but given the short length of Chapter 13,
its remit now is not to convert any headline simple model results from
Chapters 9 and 11 into scaled regional scenarios for impacts work - by
mid-late 1999 it will be too late for that anyway. So, different impact
studies will now adopt different approaches, and WGII can assess the
resulting science, but what will help the writing of Chapter 13 and WGII
will be as clear a statement of intent (and ideally some preliminary
results) of the sort of exercises that Sarah and Jonathan refer to,
preferably using the new SRES emissions scenarios.
Mike
****************************************************************************
Dr Mike Hulme
Norwich NR4 7TJ
****************************************************************************
Mean temp. in Central England during 1998 is running
at about 1.05 deg C above the 1xxx xxxx xxxxaverage
***************************************************
The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly estimate for the
first half of 1998 was about +0.60 deg C above the 1xxx xxxx xxxxaverage,
the warmest such period yet recorded
****************************************************************************

Emails
From: From <[email protected]>

Subject: No Subject
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 10:09:48 +0400 (MSD)
trwcrn.rwm
Tree-ring widths (TRW) chronology:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Ident., Trees, Inent. N (trees)
No. No.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
xxx xxxx xxxx all living and dead 2209-years chronology
2)* xxx xxxx xxxxMAY,925,927,928, CHA044
3)* xxx xxxx xxxxCHA-H1
4)* xxx xxxx xxxxMAY702
5)* xxx xxxx xxxxNOV001
6)* xxx xxxx xxxxCHA-H6
8)* xxx xxxx xxxxNOV-A02
9)* xxx xxxx xxxxCHA005
11)* xxx xxxx xxxxCHA060,012,009,017,001
---------------------------------------------------------------------
* - calibrated radiocarbon age
1) all living and dead 2209-years chronology

2209=N -212=I xxx xxxx xxxxsamples -5(13F6.0)~
23xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx000
74xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx500116xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
18xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
2) MAY,925,927,928, CHA044
296=N -670=I 2) 4 samples (MAY925,927,928, CHA0xxx xxxx xxxx(13F6.0)~
42xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx000128xxx xxxx xxxx
10xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx000
3) CHA-H1
306=N -1398=I 3) 1 sample (CHA-Hxxx xxxx xxxx -3(20F4.0)~
xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
11701xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx51xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
4) MAY702
270=N -2456=I 4) 1 sample (MAY7xxx xxxx xxxx -2(26F3.0)~
xxx xxxx xxxx 89124144xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx161102130153109
123128153124147xxx xxxx xxxx134xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 36 73
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 30 16
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx
5) NOV001
246=N -2923=I 5) 1 sample (NOV0xxx xxxx xxxx -2(26F3.0)~
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 33115148xxx xxxx xxxx 57119179106182
169117127160187162143170102xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx125xxx xxxx xxxx
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 79xxx xxxx xxxx103
xxx xxxx xxxx 39xxx xxxx xxxx 83116138xxx xxxx xxxx113128103158
xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx 52 52
xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 38 18
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx
6) CHA-H6
345=N -3178=I 6) 1 sample (CHA-Hxxx xxxx xxxx -2(26F3.0)~
xxx xxxx xxxx 87138157143xxx xxxx xxxx147xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx
xxx xxxx xxxx 26
7) NOV078
xxx xxxx xxxx136142152115153161154xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx118
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 49 3
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 88xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 90
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 24
8) NOV-A02
286=N -3457=I 8) 1 sample (NOV-Axxx xxxx xxxx -5(13F6.0)~
9) CHA005
198=N -3513=I 9) 1 sample (CHA0xxx xxxx xxxx -2(26F3.0)~
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 90103
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx124116145141
10) NOV029
129159235264201202138213132xxx xxxx xxxx115xxx xxxx xxxx108104175111
xxx xxxx xxxx 83xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx102
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 78132
xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx 9 9
11) CHA060,012,009,017,001
685=N -3964=I 11) 5 samples (CHA060,012,009,017,0xxx xxxx xxxx(13F6.0)~
60xxx xxxx xxxx100100xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
43xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx000114xxx xxxx xxxx000113xxx xxxx xxxx
103000106000110xxx xxxx xxxx000133000180000178000
tem-rcs.rwm
Temperature reconstructed:
1) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology
2) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology (5-years moving
average)
3) Annual temperature reconstructed, RCS-chronology (5-years moving average)
1) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology

2072=N -77=I TJJ -4(13F6.0)~
150043131332106xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx633105xxx xxxx xxxx782
117175117224102770101xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx545106681103xxx xxxx xxxx
95xxx xxxx xxxx166104xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx906111xxx xxxx xxxx
90xxx xxxx xxxx544120244104xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx789103909
54xxx xxxx xxxx397101xxx xxxx xxxx873101xxx xxxx xxxx456116977
83911135143125590112472112522108xxx xxxx xxxx522102770101xxx xxxx xxxx
94xxx xxxx xxxx347110xxx xxxx xxxx859162071104552105xxx xxxx xxxx
63368115xxx xxxx xxxx692102374109552109xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
81xxx xxxx xxxx017106xxx xxxx xxxx764117xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
65xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx297117422109403113759118214104008118511
107xxx xxxx xxxx893107918
2) Early summer temperature reconstructed (5-years moving average)
2068=N -75=I TJJxxx xxxx xxxx -4(13F6.0)~
103889105047107096102958107482109xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
93573
3) Annual temperature reconstructed, RCS-chronology (5-years moving average)
2068=N -75=I TYYxxx xxxx xxxx -3(13F6.0)~
-12xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx930
-13xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx

Emails

Subject: transfer
Date: Wed Nov 18 11:04:xxx xxxx xxxx
Eugene
I am told that the money transfer xxx xxxx xxxxu.s. dollars) should have gone to
the bank account you stated. Please let me know if this is received by you. I now
also have the contract signed by INTAS and we must organise future work and I will
talk to Fritz about us visiting Ekaterinburg next year. In the meantime I wish you
and Stepan to organise major review papers of the Yamal and Taimyr long chronology
staus for inclusion in the Holocene ADVANCE-10K Special Issue. These need to be
completed by June at the latest . They will each be xxx xxxx xxxxpages of print. I
can suggest content, do some analyses and help with editing these . I am also
sending Stepan's 5000 dollars to Switzerland now to be carried back by his
colleague. I have yet to sort out how claims on the INTAS money will be handled.
Have you received the details of the final contract?
best wishes
Keith

Emails

To: Paul Valdes <[email protected]>, Nick Shackleton <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Thematic Proposal
Date: Thu Nov 26 10:51:xxx xxxx xxxx
Paul and Nick

at this point it would be unwise to consider the proposal dead. Yes
it has received mixed receptions in different quarters but this was always to be
expected. Each of the boards has its own family to protect , or at least this is
the way science funding is now perceived, so that the only consideration in the
discussion ( especially of proposals from alien boards) is whether or not there
will be enough on the carcass for ones own. The strength of our proposal lies in
the potential for true cross-Board participation and the real scientific and
strategic advantage of the focus on the Hadley Centre work. In my mind the problem
has always been to get real enthusiasm from ASTB , and if COAPPEC had not been on
the table this may have been more forthcoming. I can not see that we could have
done anything more in the cicumstances to overcome this hurdle than by enlisting
Hadley Centre support. The decision to go jointly only with ESTB and ASTB was
already made. The issue of 'no money anyway ' typifies the unsatisfactory nature
of the system - but in this case I hear things may not be so bleak. Apparently
some millions more pounds are now available than was the case earlier! At this
point NERC will say nothing - but they are equally not saying ' sorry and goodbye'
. Let us wait and reconsider when we hear something definate.
Incidently, I have seen a copy of a project funded in Germany where they have
millions of marks to compare model and palaeodata to verify and otherwise explore
the natural variability in the Hamburg model! They are looking forward to using
our data in this exercise!
I will be in touch as soon as I hear more.
best wishes
Keith
At 06:41 PM 11/25/98 +0000, Paul Valdes wrote:

>Keith, Nick,
>
>Have you had any news about the thematic proposal.
>
>I gather that things did not go well for it in the ASTB.
>The story I have heard is that it was tabled along with
>the other proposals, but also tabled was the proposed
>expenditure for the next 5 years. Moreover, apparently
>it was then said (or perhaps just implied) that there
>was no point looking at some thematic proposals because
>all money was already committed!
>
>If only half of this were true, then it is disappointing.
>Apparently, more atmospheric chemistry was recommended,
>plus COAPPEC (the coupled ocean-atmosphere project).
>
>Hopefully it faired better at ESTB but it clearly cannot
>be argued to be a joint proposal!
>
>Perhaps we should consider recycling it into an EC framework
>5 proposal.
>
>Paul
>
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>Dr. Paul Valdes Dept. of Meteorology,
>Email: [email protected] University of Reading,
>Phone: xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx Earley Gate, Whiteknights,
>Fax: xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx PO Box 243
> Reading. RG6 6BB. UK
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>

Emails
From: Bob Keeland <[email protected]>

Subject: Re: verification and uniformitarianism
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 1998 16:13:xxx xxxx xxxx
Frank is correct in that we need to define 'abrupt climatic change' or

even just 'climate change.'
Using Jim's Schulman Grove example suppose that the area supported a
stand of bristlecone pine 9,000 or more years ago, hence the scattered
remnants. Either a major catastrophic event or a fluctuation in climate
(call it climate change if you want) resulted in conditions that killed
the mature trees and eliminated any further recruitment for up to 1,000
years. This site may be near the limits of recruitment and with a major
(or minor perhaps) change in climate it could easily be beyond the
limits of recruitment. About 8,000 years ago climate again became
favorable for bristlecone pine recruitment and a new stand(s) developed
and have existed ever since. Some or most of the material remaining
from the original stand may be buried down in the valley, or the
original stand may have been small or sparse. The amount of time
between the loss of the original stand and the beginning of the new
stand would depend on the period of unfavorable weather and the amount
of time needed for bristlecone pine to re-invade the area. I am out on
a limb here, so to speak, as I an somewhat ignorant of prehistoric
climate patterns for the area and of bristlecone pine ecology, but this
seems like a relatively reasonable scenario.
I guess that my point is that climate continues to fluctuate within

broad bounds. Everything that we are now calling 'climate change' is
well within the bounds observed within the prehistoric record of climate
fluctuations. Do we call any variation 'climate change' or should we
limit the term climate change for anything considered to be caused by
humans? To my mind it is not so much what we call it, but rather that
we keep a clear idea of what we actually talking about.
Bob Keeland
USGS, National Wetlands Research Center
Lafayette, LA
[email protected]

Emails
From: Bryson Bates <[email protected]>

To: Barrie Pittock <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: uncertainties guidance paper
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1998 18:58:01 +0800 (WST)
Cc: "'[email protected]'" <[email protected]>
Dear All --
On Mon, 14 Dec 1998, Barrie Pittock wrote:
> 1. Two issues are being addressed and partially confused:

> (a) the confidence we have in the science (which seems to be the main
> concern of the paper);
> (b) the quantitative uncertainty regarding specific results such as: by
> what percentage will the rainfall change at 2050 in region/location A?
> or, how much will changes in tropical cyclones cost in percent of GNP
> (or additional? lives lost)? My reading of the comments from WG1 authors
> reported by Neil Leary was that they were focussing more on (a), whereas
> WG2 authors may want to focus a bit more on (b).
I wholeheartedly agree. While I agree with the probabilistic approach in

general, there are a number of practical factors that will mitigate
against it. Barrie has listed most, I have added one below.
> 2. Authors will be limited largely by what is in the literature,

> especially on the second class of uncertainty. So the guidance needs to
> go from the authors, or IPCC in some other way (as soon as possible), to
> the researchers to encourage greater attention to quantifying their
> uncertainties, and to the authors to put their fingers on misleadingly
> "precise" estimates by pointing out the basis of such estimates, eg.,
> "this estimated crop yield change is based on only one simulation with
> one GCM and should be considered in the light of the range of results
> from other GCMs and for other realisations".
Another source of uncertainty is the different methods used to derive

climate change scenarios at regional and local scales. Some authors apply
perturbations (based on changes indicated by several GCMs) to historical
climate series, some use results from limited area models, while others
use one of a wide variety of stochastic approaches that are based on
results from one or more GCMs. The important point here is these methods
would produce different estimates of uncertainty for the same region and
the same suite of GCMs.
> 6. Regarding para. 67, I am more concerned about the "best" or "central"
> estimate for climate sensitivity of 2.5 deg.C for 2xCO2 than about the
> range. Several lines of evidence (paleo-evidence, fitting models to the
> last 100 years, the distribution of improved model results) all suggest
> that the "best estimate" for this increasingly dated and artificial
> notion should be raised from 2.5 to nearer 3.5. This would be
> controversial, but I believe it would also be giving the best advice
> possible. Whatever you believe is the correct number, the level of
> concern such a change would raise is in itself evidence for the
> importance of central estimates in the climate change debate.
This could be investigated and quantified in a Bayesian framework.
> 7. I share Martin Manning's problems with the use of the term "Bayesian"
> and equating it with "subjective". Personally I think this paper should
> avoid such specialist technical terms if possible, especially if there
> is disagreement about what they mean!
Yes: Bayesian methods provide a means of combining prior (expert)

knowledge with data to quantify the posterior distribution. The prior
knowledge may be based on the results of previous experiments and need not
be subjective. Another point is that formal application of Bayesian
methods usually leads to problems that are analytically intractable. The
recent development of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods has largely
overcome this.
> 8. I repeat my concern re too much spatial aggregation of results if it

> hides important regional differences, as these are very important for
> questions of intragenerational equity. I think the paper should
> specifically warn against this. Averaging is notorious as a way of
> hiding important differences.
I share this concern: the average of a large negative and a large

positive number is close to zero.
Regards
Bryson Bates

Emails
From: Rob Swart <[email protected]>

[email protected], [email protected], Jan Bakkes
<[email protected]>, [email protected], [email protected],
[email protected], root%[email protected], [email protected],
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected], Bert
Metz <[email protected]>, [email protected],
[email protected]
Subject: IPCC Emissions Scenarios
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1998 15:34:41 +0100
LS
As you may recall, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is

in the process of preparing a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).
Recently, it has been agreed that these scenarios are to play an important
role in IPCC's Third Assessment Report. The Terms of Reference of this
Special Report include a so-called Open Process to stimulate input from a
community of experts much broader than the writing team. This Open Process
has started in August 1998 and was planned last until the end of the year.
Because of the late date of this message we decided to extent this deadline
until January 10 now. A website (sres.ciesin.org) is managed by the Center
for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in the United
States in collaboration with the Energy Research Foundation (ECN) in the
Netherlands, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) of Working Group III on
Mitigation of IPCC in the Netherlands, and the International Institute of
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, the home institution of the
co-ordinator of the SRES Report, dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic. Three types of
input are invited: (a) new scenarios (preferably from the peer-reviewed
literature) that have not been taken into account by the writing team, (b)
new quantification of the proposed SRES scenarios based on storylines, and
(c) suggestions for improvements of the material developed until now.
Several of you have responded to an earlier request for input into this
open process. Thank you for that input. Amongst other things on the basis
of input received so far, recently the information on the website has been
improved considerably. The writing team of the report has now started to
actually draft their report, but can still take into account reactions to
this new information as published through the website, in principle until
31 December 1998. Herewith I would like to invite you to explore the site
(again) and provide us with your comments.
PLEASE DO SO USING THE FACILITIES OF THE WEBSITE, DO NOT USE THE EMAIL
ADDRESS OF THE SENDER OF THIS MESSAGE OR THE EMAIL GROUP LIST ABOVE!!!!
On behalf of Dr. Nakicenovic, thank you very much for your support to this
important endeavour!
Dr. Rob Swart

Head, Technical Support Unit
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III: Mitigation
P.O. Box 1
3720 BA Bilthoven
Netherlands
xxx xxxx xxxx
email: [email protected] or [email protected]

Emails
From: Bill Hare <[email protected]>

Subject: Re: MAGICC
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1998 18:05:59 +0100
Dear Mike
Please send the details etc to me.
Thanks
Bill
On 18 Dec 98 at 9:43, Mike Hulme wrote:
> Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1998 09:43:31 +0000

> To: Bill Hare <[email protected]>
> From: Mike Hulme <[email protected]>
> Subject: Re: MAGICC
> Bill,
>
> The version of MAGICC we are distributing is the IPCC SAR 1996
> version. You can get that from me under Licence for $50. If you
> wish to proceed let me know and I can send it you with invoice.
>
> Regards,
>
> Mike
>
> At 17:59 16/12/98 +0100, you wrote:
> >Dear Mike
> >
> >I would like to know how to get the most recent version of MAGICC and
> >of COMICC (carbon cycle model). I heard from a colleague that you
> >may be distributing MAGICC??
> >
> >I look forward to hearing from you,
> >
> >Regards
> >
> >Bill Hare
> >
> >Bill Hare
> >Climate Policy Director
> >Greenpeace International
> >Keizersgracht 176
> >1016 DW Amsterdam
> >The Netherlands
> >
> >Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx
> >Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
> >Email: [email protected]
> >
> >
> >
>
Bill Hare
Climate Policy Director
Greenpeace International
Keizersgracht 176
1016 DW Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx

Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx

Emails
From: "Stepan G. Shiyatov" <[email protected]>

Subject: Scientific cooperation
Date: Mon, 21 Dec 1998 11:00:33 +0500
Reply-to: "Stepan G. Shiyatov" <[email protected]>
Dear Keith,
Thank you for the money transfer via Fritz Schweingruber. I received
5000 USD. Is it necessary to give you a receipt for this sum of money?
Money will be used for organization of field works in the Yamal
Peninsula and Polar Urals next year. Of course, this sum is not
enough. I hope we shall have an additional money from the INTAS
project and the Russian Funds.
I received two copy of the INTAS contract from Fritz and one copy I
sent to E. Vaganov. We would like to know your opinion concerning
transfer money.
Also, I need to know exact time you and Fritz intend to visit
Ekaterinburg next year. The new rules demand to make application to
the Russian officials before 6 months of your arriving. Do you want
or not to travel in the area of Southern Ural Mountains after meeting
in Ekaterinburg? Fritz wants to travel over this area (the Taganai and
Iremel Mountains).
Best wishes to you, your family and your colleagues.
Marry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Sincerely yours,
Dr. Stepan G. Shiyatov
8 Marta St., 202
Fax: +7 (34xxx xxxx xxxx
Phone: +7 (34xxx xxxx xxxx
Emails
From: Janice Darch <[email protected]>

Subject: EN99:04 UKRO - European News (29 January 1999) (fwd)
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 16:09:54 GMT
Dear All, The most pertinent document is item one on copyright. Some ENv policy
documents are also included as
item5.
#Janice
Forwarded Message:
From: Helen Self <[email protected]>
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 14:32:36 GMT
Subject: EN99:04 UKRO - European News (29 January 1999) (fwd)
To: [email protected], [email protected], Dora.K@uea, e.banakas@uea,
e.doy@uea, f.littlewood@uea, [email protected], h.brownlee@uea,
[email protected], j.darch@uea, [email protected], j.schostak@uea,
j.steward@uea, [email protected], m.silbert@uea, m.stallworthy@uea,
[email protected], odg.gen@uea, r.mcbride@uea, [email protected],
v.koutrakou@uea
Forwarded Message:
From: ukro.ukro <[email protected]>
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 12:45:25 +0000
Subject: EN99:04 UKRO - European News (29 January 1999)
[email protected]
===============================================
EN99:04 UKRO - European News (29 January 1999)
===============================================
News on non-Framework Programme 5, programmes & policy
===============================================
GENERAL:
1. ESF on Copyright Law
2. GENERAL - Policy documents
LIFE SCIENCES:
3. DG V - Newsletter on Alzheimer's Disease
4. Microbiology - Industrial Platform
ENVIRONMENT:
5. ENVIRONMENT - Policy documents
ENERGY:
6. Synergy - International Cooperation in Energy
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES:
7. Public-Sector Information
INDUSTRY & TECHNOLOGIES:

8. Results - Pilot Projects on Benchmarking
9. Communication on Industrial Policy
EDUCATION:
10. Leonardo Database on Cordis
REGIONAL FUNDS:
11. Mid-term Review for Structural Funds
===============================================
1. ESF on Copyright Law
The European Science Foundation is warning that current plans for new EU
copyright laws, if left unchanged, could harm the international
competitiveness of European research. The Commission's draft Directive
harmonising aspects of copyright will shortly be debated by the Council of
Ministers. The ESF is calling for changes to be made to the wording of one
of the Directive's key articles which deals with 'exceptions' to the
proposed laws to ensure that it doesn't cause legal and financial headaches
for Europe's researchers.
The Foundation supports the Commission's objectives of improving the

protection of intellectual property as technological developments make it
ever easier for pirates to duplicate and distribute copyright material.
But it warns that this should not be at the expense of Europe's ability to
carry out research. Reflecting widespread concern in its Member
Organisations, the Foundation argues that the draft Article 5, which deals
with 'exceptions' to the proposed laws, "could result in research being
treated differently in different countries across Europe". As presently
written, the Article sets out an exhaustive list of permissible exceptions
to the directive, but it leaves to Member States the interpretation and
implementation of these 'exceptions'. The effect of this could be that
some researchers might find themselves in a worse position than at present
regarding their access to and use of published material. Given the
differences in national legislation between Member States, the ESF
recognises it may be difficult to draft and agree prescriptive legislation
for 'exceptions'.
The Foundation is recommending, therefore, that a clause be added to the

Directive allowing for the inclusion of all current 'exceptions' set out in
national legislation. Other suggested revisions include the need to ensure
that 'scientific research' is interpreted in a broad sense, with research
in the humanities and arts being explicitly included. In addition, the ESF
suggests that the current reference to 'non-commercial' research could
cause confusion, as it would be very difficult to differentiate between
commercial and non-commercial research in most academic settings. To avoid
this, it recommends the introduction of a 'public good' definition of
research, which could form an 'exception' to the Directive. The
Foundation's statement also points out that the Directive's current
reference to the possibility of Member States exempting the use of work
"provided that such use exclusively serves the purpose of illustration for
teaching or scientific research" is ambiguous. It could be interpreted
that there is such a thing as 'illustration for research' and that any
'exception' did not apply to research in general. A simple rewording of
the sentence to read "sole purpose of scientific research or for
illustration for teaching" would clarify the 'exception'.
The European Commission's draft "Directive on the Harmonisation of Certain
Aspects of Copyright and Related Rights in the Information Society" is
available on-line at http://europa.eu.int/comm/dg15/en/index.htm
FURTHER INFORMATION: Johanne Martinez, Information Officer, European

Science Foundation, tel 0xxx xxxx xxxx, fax 0xxx xxxx xxxx, email:
[email protected], URL: http://www.esf.org
2. GENERAL - Policy documents
Recent policy documents issued by the European institutions. Full titles

and details appear on the UKRO web site under the subject listings:
* Community action programme in the field of Civil Protection
* Action programme for customs in the Community
* Further actions in the fight against trafficking in women
* Further actions in the fight against trafficking in women
* Better lawmaking 1998: a shared responsibility Commission report to the
European Council
* Determination of the person liable for payment of value added tax
* Legal aspects of electronic commerce in the internal market
* General framework for Community activities in favour of consumers
* Action programme for customs in the Community
3. DG V - Newsletter on Alzheimer's Disease
The first edition of the Alzheimer Europe quarterly newsletter has been
published by DG V (Public Health). The newsletter is intended to draw
attention to the aims and activities of Alzheimer Europe, a grouping of
national organisations dealing with Alzheimer's disease. The newsletter
includes news of research, events and conferences relevant to the field. It
will focus on important developments in the European institutions which
affect people with dementia and is also intended to be a platform for the
exchange of ideas between organisations and institutes active in the field
of Alzheimer's disease. Each issue will include reports on EC-funded
transnational projects, beginning in the first edition with London's
Institute of Psychiatry EUROCARE project. The next edition of the
newsletter will be published towards the end of March 1999.
FURTHER INFORMATION: Alzheimer Europe, tel 00xxx xxxx xxxx, fax 00xxx xxxx xxxx
972,email: [email protected], URL: http://www.alzheimer-europe.org
4. Microbiology - Industrial Platform
The Industrial Platform for Microbiology, a ginger group of EU-funded

companies and researchers, has decided to change the focus of its
activities. It will now aim to provide a forum for EU industrial
microbiologists to discuss research and development strategies, scientific
aspects of regulatory developments in applied life sciences, and
professional issues such as education and training in the field. The
Industrial Platform for Microbiology was originally established to organise
information exchange between EU-funded companies interested in using the
results of EU funded projects and academics working on microbiology
research and development projects. Its members will meet again in Brussels
in February 1999 to discuss a draft "code of conduct" for companies
involved in bioprospecting activities.
FURTHER INFORMATION: Anne-Marie Prieels, Tech-Know Consultants, tel 0032 58
xxx xxxx xxxx, email: [email protected], URL: http://www.tech-
know.be
5. ENVIRONMENT - Policy documents
Recent policy documents issued by the European institutions. Full titles

and details appear on the UKRO web site under the subject listings:
* Present situation and prospects for radioactive waste management
* Minimum criteria for environmental inspections in the Member States
* Cooperation in the field of accidental marine pollution
* Limitation of emissions of volatile organic compounds due to the use of
organic solvents
* Review clause Environmental and health standards four years after the
accession of Austria, Finland and Sweden to the E. U.
* Application of aerial-survey and remote-sensing techniques to the
agricultural statistics for 1xxx xxxx xxxx
* Financial instrument for the environment
* Forestry strategy for the E. U.
* Control of transboundary movements of hazardous wastes and their
disposal
* Voluntary participation by organisations in a Community eco-management
and audit scheme
* Remote sensing applied to agricultural statistics during the period
1xxx xxxx xxxx
6. Synergy - International Cooperation in Energy
The Council has announced a Decision (1999/23/EC) adopting a multiannual programme

to promote
international cooperation in the energy sector
(1xxx xxxx xxxx). According to the Decision, within the European Union's Energy
Framework Programme (see EN39:98, item 11), a specific programme for
reinforcement of international cooperation in the energy field will be
implemented from 1998 to 2002 ('Synergy programme').
The objectives of this programme are to provide assistance to third

countries with the definition, formulation and implementation of energy
policy, and to promote industrial cooperation between the Community and
third countries in the energy sector. The main tasks of the Synergy
programme are to help achieve the Community's energy objectives:
competitiveness, security of supply, and protection of the environment.
The financial reference for the Synergy programme will be ECU 15 million.
Of this, ECU 6m will be for the period 1998 to 1999. The finances for the
period between 2000 and 2002 will be reviewed if the amount ECU 9m is not
consistent with the financial perspective for that period.
Supported activities are:

* Energy policy advice and training;
* Energy analyses and forecasting;
* Energy dialogue and exchanges of information on energy policy, notably by
means of organisation of conferences and seminars;
* Support to regional transboundary coooperation;
* Improvement of the Framework for industrial cooperation on energy.
According to this Decision, NO FUNDING MAY BE GRANTED TO RESEARCH,
development, or demonstration projects.
FURTHER INFORMATION: OJ L 7 of 13 January 1999, p.23.
7. Public-Sector Information
The European Commission has decided to publish a Green Paper on how the
information gathered by government departments and other public bodies can
be used to provide the greatest benefit for citizens and businesses in
Europe. A lot of information gathered by public bodies for carrying out
their duties could be used by the multimedia industry for developing new
products and services. Citizens could make better use of their rights if,
for example, information was readily available on the conditions for
working, studying or living as a pensioner in other Member States. Many
people would like to have full information on the tax regulations for
cross-border purchases. The competitiveness of businesses could be
increased if they had a quick and easy means of finding out what the
regulations and procedures are for exporting to other countries. All this
information exists, but the technical and legal procedures and terms under
which the Member States make it available are uncoordinated and therefore
not very transparent for citizens and business. The Green Paper calls for
these matters to be discussed and asks questions about how the situation
can be improved.
FURTHER INFORMATION: http://ww.echo.lu/legal/en/access/access.html
8. Results - Pilot Projects on Benchmarking
Results from four pilot projects on benchmarking framework conditions - in

the fields of professional qualification, logistics, the impact of new
information technologies (NITs) on company organisation, and the financing
of innovation - are reported in the January issue of the newsletter of the
European Association of Development Agencies (EURADA).
The lessons drawn included:

* Companies located in peripheral regions suffer from the poor quality of
infrastructures, expensive logistical services and weaknesses in the field
of transnational cooperation;
* The authorities should support the effective use of NIT and the
enhancement of NIT-related structures;
* SMEs lack NIT qualifications and skills;
* Business Angels play a lesser role in innovation in Europe than in the
US, probably due to tax- and revenue-related problems;
* Even though it remains below the number of such companies operating in
the US, the number of venture capital companies operating in Member States
of the EU is rising (750 versus 1800);
* Generally speaking and in comparison with the US and Israel, Europe
suffers from a deficit in terms of the ability to evaluate technological
risks and from a lack of initiatives to support faster interaction between
universities and companies;
* Education policies should be more practical and in-company training
should be fully integrated in the programmes of higher education
institutions;
* Closer links should be promoted between industry and the educational
system;
* The skills which new workers lack most upon entry to the labour market
are (a) knowledge of English, (b) computer literacy, (c) knowledge about
the industrial world, and (d) adaptability.
FURTHER INFORMATION: EURADA, Avenue des Arts 12/7, B-1210 Brussels, tel
0xxx xxxx xxxx; fax 0xxx xxxx xxxx, email: [email protected], URL:
http://www.benchmarking-in-europe.com
9. Communication on Industrial Policy
The Commission has adopted a communication launching an open debate with

the EU's different political, economic and social players on the
orientation of a new industrial policy with a view to addressing the
challenges of globalisation and accelerated technological changes. The
communication diagnoses European industry's weaknesses and proposes a
series of measures to promote industrial competitiveness.
The communication diagnoses the weaknesses of European industry:

* Europe does not have a strong presence in the services sector;
* European enterprises resort to insufficient externalisation;
* Specialisation remains underdeveloped in sectors with high growth, highly
differentiated products and requiring a strong marketing strategy;
* The European audiovisual sector is in an unfavourable competitive
position;
* European enterprises form relatively few alliances in advanced technology
areas;
* The amounts invested by risk capital funds are insufficiently oriented
towards new and high- technology industries;
* European enterprises can access financial markets only with difficulty;
* The level of R&D spending in terms of EU GDP is still below that of its
principal global economic partners;
* The exploitation of research results is not efficient enough;
* The EU suffers from high costs and the complexity of procedures for
achieving intellectual property protection in Europe;
* European enterprises put very few joint research projects in place.
To counteract this situation and stimulate European competitiveness, the

communication emphasises the following proposals, among others:
* Reinforce intangible investment, by adapting the systems of accrediting
competencies and by improving the level of and return from research
resources, especially through a better system of intellectual property
protection;
* Develop human resources by acting on the educational system, by
encouraging the spirit of enterprise and various forms of social innovation
and social cohesion;
* Promote the access of European enterprises to the world market, by
accelerating the exploitation of the competitive advantages of the Single
Market;
* Promote fair rules of the game at a world level in view of the new round
of WTO negotiations (that is by developing an observation system for public
support to research in industrialised countries);
* Develop the dialogue between industry and public authorities and forms of
self-regulation (protection of consumers and users);
* Improve financing by eliminating institutional and regulatory barriers to
the development of venture capital and improving the tax regime applied to
venture capital;
* Adaptation of the rules to the context of the information society and
electronic commerce (agreements such as the "International Charter").
FURTHER INFORMATION: Press release IP/99/33.
10. Leonardo Database on Cordis
DG XXII and Cordis have approved plans to include the products database of
the Leonardo da Vinci Programme on the Cordis service. The publication of
the Leonardo Da Vinci products database on Cordis should allow its
continual update. This is hoped to improve interaction between the owners
of products and their users. The schedule for the launch of this database
on Cordis has yet to be confirmed.
FURTHER INFORMATION: DG XXII, fax 0xxx xxxx xxxx, URL:

http://europa.eu.int/en/comm/dg22/leonardo.html
11. Mid-term Review for Structural Funds
The European Commission approved a report on the mid-term review for the
poorest (Objective 1) and sparsely populated regions (Objective 6) in the
European Union (EU) for the present programming period (1xxx xxxx xxxx). It
gives an overview of the mid-term evaluations carried out for the
Structural Funds programmes during the current programming period. The
report shows important achievements, e.g. when it comes to reducing
disparities in basic infrastructure, energy diversification or
environmental improvements.
URL: http://www.inforegio.org/wbdoc/docoffic/official/repor_en.htm
===============================================
Commission press releases (reference 'IP/year 2 digits/number') can be

obtained from 'RAPID' at http://europa.eu.int/en/comm/spp/rapid.html
Log in as 'guest' with password 'guest'.
European documents (ISBNs) and Official Commission documents (reference

'Com (year 2 digits) number') are available from your local European
Documentation Centre at: http://www.cec.org.uk/relays/relhome.htm or from
the Stationery Office, Tel 0xxx xxxx xxxx, fax 0xxx xxxx xxxx.
Please note that European News is sent directly to European Liaison

Officers only. ELOs can decide how to disseminate it within their
institution. European News is accessible via the web at
http://www.ukro.ac.uk (subscribers only).
INFORMATION FROM THIS PUBLICATION MUST NOT BE FORWARDED OR COPIED OUTSIDE

OF YOUR INSTITUTION. No liability shall be incurred by UKRO for use of the
information provided in this publication.
UKRO
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1040 Brussels, Belgium
Tel: 0xxx xxxx xxxx/ 1535
Fax: 0xxx xxxx xxxx
URL: http://www.ukro.ac.uk
===============================================
??
________________________________
Dr J P Darch
[email protected]
Research Administrator, School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
Tel: +44 (0)1xxx xxxx xxxxFax: +44 xxx xxxx xxxx/507719

Emails
From: Wolfgang Cramer <[email protected]>

Subject: Re[2]: IPCC Chapter 13 - invitation to contribute
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 1999 20:21:47 +0100
Reply-to: Wolfgang Cramer <[email protected]>
Dear Mike,
thanks for your message. I am sure we can work with these files as
soon as we know how the grid is organized. Is it line by line from the
North to the South, starting at the dateline? Or something different?
Yes indeed, it would be the best to work with *your* xxx xxxx xxxxbaseline
for this. Does the baseline also contain cloudiness? If not, then I
intend to generate that from our own files, and we will make the
assumption that, on the level of monthly means, this does not change
as much as to significantly affect the sensitivity of vegetation to
the other forcings.
As for a minor point, please remember to use my pik-address

whenever possible. The other two (csi and t-online) are both used for
sending mail while I am on the road (csi) or at home (t-online), and
particularly t-online has the drawback that I can ONLY access it from
home (presently) and not from the lab. Unfortunately, I cannot
convince my mail sending software to always pretend the mail comes
from PIK...
Yes, I will come to the ACACIA meeting, at least until the second
day in the afternoon - after that I have to juggle two other meetings
in Holland and Germany. With some luck, I should be able to present
some results there.
Best wishes!
Wolfgang
PS: I saw your correspondence with Kinne and am interested to follow

up - but not today.
On Dienstag, 2. Februar 1999, you wrote:
> Wolfgang,
> Martin is dragging his feet, but you have convinced me we should distribute
> them anyway. I have got someone onto it today and with luck may have the
> minimum (8 realisations for 4 scenarios and for 3 timeslices and for Tmean,
> Precip and DTR on the HadCM2 grid for the entire world) completed and on an
> ftp site by Friday. I will also let Nigel know about this. Presumably you
> will use the 1xxx xxxx xxxx.5deg baseline data? Our files will present
> *changes* from 1xxx xxxx xxxxon a mean monthly basis on the 2.5 by 3.75 grid.
> Let's keep in touch on this since it opens up a number of other

> issues/applications. Will you be coming to the ACACIA meeting in early March?
> Mike
> p.s. the files will be in the same format as the attached file to this
> email - just so that you can start thinking about what you need to do.
mailto:[email protected]

Emails
From: "Jonathan T. Overpeck" <[email protected]>

To: Frank Oldfield <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Finances and futures
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 1999 11:43:xxx xxxx xxxx
[email protected]
Hi Frank and friends - I'm happy to see the budget looking sound and feel
Franks suggestions are good ones in terms of money to spend this year.
Building on the Swiss paleoclimate course is a good idea, and, of course,
we should decide on future REDIE investments at future SSC's. My gut
feeling is that REDIE will have to continue to be a lower priority in the
future, BUT that we should stay committed to getting scientists (including
youngsters) from developing countries to our science mtgs - makes more
sense than training probably, given tight budgets. Thanks,Peck
>Dear colleagues,
>
>I now share with you some ideas about our financial situation in PAGES. I
>think the information should be treated confidentially at this stage and
>certainly with some discretion.
>
>During the course of last year, it was very difficult to keep track of our
>financial position from month to month, partly because it took our
>financial contacts in the University of Bern an inordinately long time to
>sort out the financial implications of the OSM, partly because, in the
>course of doing this, they made some understandable but very significant
>and confusing errors. Niklaus has now managed to sort these out and we also
>have our confirmed budget for 1999 - which means that we can begin to do
>some real planning.
>
>The first significant point is that we are carrying over into 1999 a
>surplus some US$15k greater than we began with in 1998. In fact we have
>been building up our 'carry-over' steadily since the beginning of 1996 and
>it is now around $67k - between 13% and 14% or our annual budget and a much
>higher proprtion of that part of our budget that is uncommitted each year.
>Whilst I believe it would be unwise to eliminate it entirely, I do think we
>should aim to reduce it significantly provided there is a good rationale
>for the means we choose.
>
>I have attached a summary of how I see things for 1999. You will see that
>even if we spend all the funds committed to workshops at our Pallanza
>meeting, we still have a very healthy surplus. On past experience, I do not
>think this sum will be exceeded during 1999 - even if we have one or two
>more urgent requests, they are more than likely to be offset by delayed
>workshops, so I think this is actually likely to be an over-estimate.
>Moreover, I have assumed that ALL the money allocated by IGBP for Synthesis
>will be spent in 1999. We are under some pressure to do this, but the pace
>of the exercise makes me suspect that we may have difficulty.
>
>At the end of the Table, I list 3 additional commitments I would like to
>propose for prioiritizing and I discuss each briefly below:
>
>1. REDIE (which you may remember stands for Regional Educational and
>Infrastructure Efforts (about which we have, so far, said very little and
>done even less).
>
> In this area, one of the ideas gently simmering on the back burner has
>been the notion of winning support from START to run something like a
>Summer School for selected young scientists from developing countries. This
>emerged from an informal discussion between ouselves in the Office, Bruno
>and Roland Fuchs, the Director of START, when he was over here on a visit.
>At the time, he seemed quite keen on the idea, but has since been silent.
>No matter, I still feel it is an idea worth working towards at least up to
>the pre-commitment stage and I have been exploring informally the
>possibility of basing such a course in London.
>
>This coming summer, I think we may have a chance to do a kind of partial
>trial run. Thomas Stocker and Andy Lotter (a first class paleolimnologist
>here in Bern) plan to run a Summer School nearby this year. Thomas
>approached me some time ago to see if PAGES could support participation by
>any overseas students and my reply was a very cautious one to the effect
>that we would normally expect to be approached and have an input at the
>planning stage and that we would only really consider such a possibility in
>the context of training for scientists from developing countries. Having
>discussed the whole thing more fully with him, I begin to wonder whether
>it may offer quite an interesting possibility. My plan would be to seek
>nomination of/applications from say 3 to 5 young scientists from different
>parts of the developing/former eastern bloc world (represnting each of the
>PEP Transects) and bring them to Bern both for the course and for a short
>period linked into the PAGES Office. The ideas behind the latter part of
>the suggestion would be to
> - support their participation if need be,
> - give them some sense of PAGES and its role in nternational global
>change science/IGBP etc and
> - solicit feedback and advice about what the shape of an ideal course for
>developing country scientists interested in PAGES activities might be.
>
>I believe that even if we did not have something like REDIE in our
>Implementation Plan it should be an important commitment; since we do, it
>is an absolute obligation which we ignore at the risk of serious
>allegations of bad faith.
>
>2. I feel there will be a need to follow up my PEP II visit to Australia
>with something positive there. John Dodson is responding well to
>suggestions about more co-ordination and bringing in more colleagues to
>share the responsibility, but I think that if whatever we agree in Perth is
>actually to work, there will be a need to fund a WORKshop (as distinct from
>a mini-symposium) of thematic and/or regional co-ordinators to get their
>act together. We should offer money for this.
>
>3. The difference it has made having Cathy Stickley (based at UCL) working
>for PEP III is fantastic, but we risk losing her input unless something can
>be done. I'm negotiating with ESF, but it will be over a year before their
>finely grinding mills deliver anything. Rick and Francoise are also going
>to apply to EC for Framework 5 funding, but that will be no quicker. I am
>seriously considering asking Zimmie to help bridge the gap since he did not
>quite close the door when I last talked this through with him, but I feel
>that if I do this, PAGES might need to put up a bit more colateral, the
>more so since we are in credit.
>
>Both 2 and 3 reflect my view that the PEP's remain an absolutely vital part
>of the PAGES structure and need to be supported if that is the only way
>they can achieve their objectives.
>
>All three of the above suggestions require some endorsement in principle
>before I take them any further. If we were to spend all the funds envisaged
>before the end of 1999, our budget credit would be very much reduced -
>probably by too much, but I believe the PEP funding would probably be paced
>over a longer period and that the other items in our budget are more likely
>to be marginally under- than over-spent, so I do not feel we are proposing
>any unreasonable risk.
>
>I look forward to any reactions members of EXCOMM may have to these
>suggestions.
>
>Withh all good wishes,
>
>Frank
>
>
>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Budget for 1999 (RTF /MSWD) (0000B314)
>____________________________________________
>Frank Oldfield
>
>Executive Director
>PAGES IPO
>Barenplatz 2
>
>
>Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx; Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>http://www.pages.unibe.ch/pages.html
Dr. Jonathan T. Overpeck

Head, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program
National Geophysical Data Center
325 Broadway E/GC
Boulder, CO 80303
tel: xxx xxxx xxxx

fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
[email protected]
For OVERNIGHT (e.g., Fedex) deliveries,

PLEASE USE:
Dr. Jonathan Overpeck

NOAA National Geophysical Data Center
3100 Marine Street, RL3, Rm A136
Boulder, CO 80303
tel: xxx xxxx xxxx

Emails
From: Simon Tett <[email protected]>

To: Peter Stott <pastott@meadow>, Gareth Jones <gsjones@meadow>, Myles Allen
<[email protected]>, Phil Jones <[email protected]>, Keith Briffa
<[email protected]>
Subject: Tuesday Meeting
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 1999 23:01:45 +0000
Dear all,
thank you for the meeting on tuesday. I think it went well. Here as
promised and slightly late is a summary of what we discussed. Myles can
you forward the message to Michael. Can you let me know if you are all
happy with this and once I have made any corrections you want I'd like
to send it to John, Geoff and Tim Barnett -- anyone else you think
should get it?
Proxy Climate forcing.
Solar -- Beer has a Be based proxy reconstruction of Solar ACTIVITY

which can be converted to irradiance changes. [Is it different from LBB
or H&S ?] Has the LBB dataset been updated? Has Svensmark got a better
handle on his proposed physical mechanisms to amplify solar irradiance
changes? [Someone to check at RMS meeting which I won't be able to
attend] Want forcing back to 1600?? though HC would find it hard to
justify doing runs that early -- me to see if John/Geoff think useful or
not.
Me to check with William the source of the rumour about problems with
the H&S dataset.
Volcanoes. Volcanoes are an important climate forcings [Issue for

IPCC??] Do volcanic erruptions cluster? Myles to "persuade" a student to
look at Phil/Keith's dataset and see if there is evidence for this? Are
there other indices of volcanic activity? Is climate response to
volcanoes sensitive to mean state?? i.e. in cooler climate get bigger
response. [Gareth could see from our model if Krakota response
significantly different from Pinatubo]
Proxy Climate data + comparision with obs and models.
Keith/Phil have 400 sites of high quality tree ring density data which
there are willing to let HC (Mat) use to do a crude model/data
comparision. Mat and Tim to liase on what they are doing. Note that
funny things are happening in the density data post 1950. Also available
may be some borehole data [Phil to talk to Pollock/Wang about
possibility] which could use to compare with model -- should consider
using lower soil temperature rather than 1. m temp. There are a few
sites with data from 0A to 2000 as well as many sites with data for 1700
to 2xxx xxxx xxxxshould consider both. There may be some other tree ring data
which tells us something about SW USA precip and thus ENSO.
Tim wants to compare patterns of temperature var from the proxy data
and compare that with the models i.e compare "observed" and modelled
covariance structure rather than just the variability. Also Tim wants to
try and unpick Mann's stuff.... HC to provide solar forced run from 1700
-- Me to check if it goes from 1700!
Our approach will be to compare model data "directly" with Proxy data
rather than do Interpolation a la GISST or Mann et al.
EU proposal
Not clear if in this years framework 5 call there will be room for
Detection/Attribution proposals (which is how we'd like to frame a
model/proxy comparision). Other issue is that QUARCC 2 and model/proxy
comparision could involve similar institutions which could cause
problems. Phil to check if room this year for proposal. Keith pointed
out that we can't just recycle the NERC thematic proposal (PRESIENT).
There is good news on that fron which suggests the proposal will go
through with an 8 million pound budget!!!
Ad Hoc detn group.
Not much said on that (or at least I didn't note it) Phil -- you have
some advice for me on that?
CLIVAR/PAGES
In the next 1-2 years there may be new reasonable quality ice core and
sedimentation data available. Data availablity from the proxy and
modelling groups is an issue (another reason for an EU proposal!).
Phil pointed out that there is a lot of instrumental data (in "funny"
units) which could be digitised in Europe.
Keith is planning on writting a "call to arms" paleo data paper.
I think I need to come up with a list of actions.... Anyone want to

volunteer.....
Simon

Emails
From: Eugene Vaganov <[email protected]>

Subject: No Subject
Date: Fri, 19 Feb 1999 13:55:20 +0300 (MSK)
From: <[email protected]>
Subject: Some information about the super-long tree-ring chronology
the East of Taymir and Putoran
Dear Keith
I sent two variants of letter by mail few days ago.
Hope that you received fax copy of it.
There are the references you ask:
REFERENCES:
1. Abaimov A.P., Bondarev A.V.,Zyryanova O.A., Shitova S.A. The Forests
of Polar Sector of Krasnoyarskii Krai.Novosibirsk, Nauka,1997,-207 pp.
(in Russ.).
2.Adamenko V.N.,Masanova M.D., Chetverikov A.F. Indication of climate
change. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1982, -110 pp. (in Russ.)
3. Bitvinskas T.T. Dendroclimatic research. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad,
1974,-170 pp. (in Russ.).
4. Budyko M.I., Izrael Yu.A. (eds.) Antropogenic climate changes. Gidro-
meteoizdat, Leningrad, 1987, -406 pp. (in Russ.).
5. Vaganov E.A., Vysotskaya L.G., Shashkin A.V. Seasonal growth and tree-
ring structure of larch near polar timberline."Lesovedenie (Russ.J.For.
Sci.)", 1994,5: 3-15.(in Russ.).
6. Vaganov E.A., Shiyatov S.G., Mazepa V.S. Dendroclimatic Study in Ural-
Siberian Subarctic. Novosibirsk, Nauka, 1996,-246 pp. (in Russ.).
7. Vaganov E.A., Panyushkina I.P., Naurzbaev M.M. Summer temperature
reconstruction in the east Taymir for last 840 years. "Ecologia (Russ.
J.Ecol.)", 1997,6:xxx xxxx xxxx. (in Russ. and Engl).
8. Vaganov E.A., Shiyatov S.G., Hantemirov R.N.,Naurzbaev M.M. Summer
temperature variability in high latitudes of the northern hemisphere for
the last 1,5 millennia: comparative analysis tree-ring and ice core data.
"Doklady AN", 1998,358(5): xxx xxxx xxxx(in Russ.and Engl).
9. Vaganov E.A., Kirdyanov A.V., Silkin P.P. The influence of early summer
temperature and dates of snow melting on tree growth in Subarctic of
Siberia."Lesovedenie (Russ.J.For.Sci.)" (in press).
10.Jenkins G.,Watts D. Spectral analysis and it's applications. Mir,M.,v.1-2,
1971,1972,-320 pp.,-282 pp. (transl.to Russ.).
11.Komin G.E. To the method of dendroclimatic study.In: Forest forming processes
in Ural, Sverdlovsk, 1970: xxx xxxx xxxx(in Russ.).
12.Mazepa V.S. The usage of spectral analysis and linear filtering to
reveal the cyclicity in dendrochronological data. In: Dendrochronology
and archaeology, Novosibirsk, Nauka, 1986: 49-68.(in Russ.).
13.Monin A.S., Shishkov Yu.A. The History of Climate. Gidrometeoizdat,
Leningrad, 1979,-407 pp.(in Russ.).
14.Naurzbaev M.M.,Vaganov E.A. 1957-year chronology for eastern Taimir.
"Sib.J.Ecol.", 1999,V.6, N 2(in press.).
15.Shiyatov S.G.Dendrochronology of upper timberline in Ural. Nauka,M.,
1986,-136 pp. (in Russ.).
16.Shnitnikov A.V.Intrasecular variations of moisture components. Nauka,
Leningrad, 1968,-246 pp. (in Russ.).
17.Himmelblau D.Process analysis by statistical methods.M.,Mir,1973,-
947 pp.(transl.to Russ.).
18.Bradley R.S.,Jones P.D. The "Little Ice Age" summer temperature variations:
their nature and relevance to global warming trends."Holocene",1993,3:367-
376.
19.Briffa K.R.,Bartholin T.S. et al. A 1,400-year tree-ring record of summer
temperature in Fennoscandia."Nature",1990,346:xxx xxxx xxxx.
20.Briffa K.R.,Jones P.D. et al. Fennoscandian summer from AD 500: temperature
changes on short and long timescales."Climate Dynamics", 1992,7:xxx xxxx xxxx.
21.Briffa K.R.,Jones P.D. et al. Tree-ring variables as proxy-climate indicators:
problems with low-frequency signals.In: Climate Change and Forcing Mechanisms
of the last 2000 years.NATO ASI Ser.,1996,141:9-41.
22.Briffa K.R.,Jones P.D. et al.Unusual twentieth-century warmth in a 1,000-
year temperature record from Siberia."Nature",1995,376:xxx xxxx xxxx.
23.Briffa K.R.,Schweingruber F.H. et al.Trees tell of past climates: but are
they speaking less clearly today?"Phil.Trans.Royal Soc.London,Ser.B.",1998,
353:65-73.
24.Briffa K.R.,Schweingruber F.H. et al. Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth
to temperature at high northern latitudes."Nature",1998,391:xxx xxxx xxxx.
25.Burroughs W.J. Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary? Cambridge, Cambridge
Univ.press,1992,-201 pp.
26.Cook E.R.,Briffa K.R.,Shiyatov S.G.,Mazepa V.S. Tree-ring standardization
and growth-trend estimation. In:Methods of Dendrochronology.Application
in the Environmental Sciences (Cook E.R.,Kairiukstis L.A.eds.),Kluwer
Acad.Publ.,Dordtrecht,1990:xxx xxxx xxxx.
27.Dahl-Jensen D.,Gundestrup N.S.,Mosegaard K.,Clow G.D. Reconstruction of the
past climate from GRIP temperature profile by Monte Carlo inversion.Paper
presented at the 1997 Fall AGU Meeting,San Francisco,1997,-28 pp.
28.D'Arrigo R.D.,Jacoby G.C.Dendroclimatic evidence from northern north
America.In: Climate since AD 1500 (Bradley R.S.,Jones P.D.,eds.),Routledge,
London, 1992:xxx xxxx xxxx.
29.Dansgaard W.,Johnsen S.J.,Clansen H.B.,Gundestrup N."Medd.Grenland",
1973,197(2):34-76.
30.Fritts H.C. Tree Rings and Climate.Acad.Press, London/New York/San Francisco,
1976,-567 pp.
31.Graybill D.A.,Shiyatov S.G. A 1009 year tree-ring reconstruction of mean
June-July temperature deviations in the Polar Urals.In: Proc.Second US-USSR
Symp.Air Pollution Effects on Vegetation Including Forest Ecosystems. USDA
For.Serv.,NFES, 1989:37-42.
32.Hantemirov R.N. A 2,305 year tree-ring reconstruction of mean June-July
temperature deviations in the Yamal Peninsula.In: Int.Conf.Past,Present
and Future Climate. Publ.Acad.Finland, 1995:xxx xxxx xxxx.
33.Holmes R.L. Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and
measurements."Tree-Ring Bull.",1983,44:69-75.
34.Hughes M.K.,Vaganov E.A. et al. A multimullenial temperature reconstruction
from far northeastern Eurasia."Holocene" (in press.).
35.Jacoby G.C.,D'Arrigo R. Reconstructed northern Hemisphere annual temperature
since 1671 based on high-latitude tree-ring data from North America."Climate
Change", 1989,14:39-59.
36.Jacoby G.C.,D'Arrigo R. Tree-ring width and density evidence of climatic
and potentual forest change in Alaska."Global Bioch.Cycles",1995,9(2):227-
234.
37.Jacoby G.C.,D'Arrigo R.,Tsevegyn D. Mongolian tree rings and 20th-century
warming."Science",1996,9:xxx xxxx xxxx.
38.Lamb H.H. Climate: present, past and future.In: Climate History and Future,
V.2,Menthuen,London, 1977:5-31.
39.LaMarche V.C., Graybill D.A., Fritts H.C.,Rose M.R. Increasing atmospheric
carbon dioxide: tree-ring evidence for growth enhancement in natural
vegetation."Science", 1984,225:1xxx xxxx xxxx.
40.Mazepa V.S. Spektral approach and narrow band filtering for assessment
of cyclic components and ecological prognoses.In: Methods of Dendrochronology.
Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Cluwer Acad.Publ.,Dordtrecht,
1990:xxx xxxx xxxx.
41.Methods of Dendrochronology.Applications in the Environmental Sciences
(E.Cook,L.Kairiukstis, eds.),Kluwer Acad.Publ.,Dordtrecht, 1990,-394 pp.
42.Schweingruber F.H., Briffa K.R.,Jones P.D. Yearly maps of summer temperatures
in Western Europe from A.D. 1750 to 1975 and Western North America from
1600 to 1982: results of radiodensitometrical study on tree rings."Vegetatio",
1991,92:5-71.
43.Schweingruber F.H. Tree Rings and Environment.Dendroecology. Paul Haupt
Publ.,Berne/Stuttgart/Vienna, 1996,-609 pp.
44.Vaganov E.A., Naurzbaev M.M.,Schweingruber F.H.,Briffa K.R.,Moell M. An
840-year tree-ring width chronology for taymir as an indicator of summer
temperature changes."Dendrochronologia", 1996,14:xxx xxxx xxxx.
Regards, Gene.

Emails

Subject: Some things of possible CLIVAR interest
Date: Thu Feb 25 17:08:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: t.osborn@uea,p.jones@uea
Dear Fred,
The following legends refer to the appropriately titled post-script files that
will be sent to you separately by my colleague Tim Osborn.
Please note that these results are products of the European Community funded
project ADVANCE-10K (Analysis of Dendrochronological Variability and Associated
Natural Climates in Eurasia - the last 10,000 years).Environment and Climate
Programme Contract ENV4-CTxxx xxxx xxxx. See also
http://www.cru.ac.uk/cru/research/
As I said on the 'phone , due acknowledgement of the above is important to us!
Figure 1
Annually averaged tree-ring density data from 400 high-latiude or high-elevation
sites around the Northern Hemisphere. This series represents interannual and
multidecadal summer temperature variability from A.D.1400 onwards. This series
shows circum-hemispheric summer temperature variability on interannual and multi-
decadal timescales and demonstrates the relative cooling effect of known, and some
probably as yet unknown, large explosive volcanic eruptions.
Figure 2
Normalized tree-ring -density anomalies around the Northern hemisphere showing
patterns of likely summer temperature changes year by year through the relatively
cool decade of the 1810s, in part caused by major volcanic eruptions in 1809 and
1815.
Figure 3
Decadally-smoothed timeseries of standardized radial tree growth at three high
northern latitude regions during the last 2000 years : Tornetrask, N.Sweden
(20E);Yamal(70E)and Taimyr(102E),Russia. Positive and negative values of these
data represent relatively warm and cool summers, associated at each location with
the strength and position of large-scale atmospheric circulation features.
I have asked Phil Jones here to send you a post script file and reference for the
mean 1000-year Nortern Hemisphere curve. His email address is shown above.
You may be also interested in some reconstructions of the NAO made by various
people. If so ask Tim about these.
best wishes
Keith

Emails
From: Mike Hulme <[email protected]>

To: Jose Caicedo <[email protected]>,[email protected],
[email protected],<[email protected]>,[email protected], Xiaso Dai
<[email protected]>,Mohammed El-Raey <[email protected]>,
[email protected],[email protected],[email protected],
[email protected],Luis Mata <[email protected]>,
[email protected],Nguyen Nghia <[email protected]>, Dr M.Lal
<[email protected]>,[email protected],[email protected], Daniel
Murdiyarso <[email protected]>,[email protected],
[email protected],[email protected],[email protected],
[email protected],[email protected],[email protected]
Subject: URGENT - IPCC DDC consultation
Date: Thu, 01 Apr 1999 12:46:01 +0100
Dear TGCIA'ers,
I have two questions to raise with you regarding the IPCC Data Distribution
Centre. The first one concerns advice regarding a GCM submission to the
DDC and the second concerns mirror web sites for the DDC.
1. GCM submission.
-------------------
The LMD (through Herve Le Treut) has requested the runs from LMD coupled
GCM be lodged with the DDC. His original request (July 1998) is appended
below as text ATTACHMENT 1. We originally rejected the submission on the
grounds that the runs were not historically forced, i.e., they were
cold-start experiments with 1% p.a. forcing being introduced from 'current'
baseline and different to all other DDC runs.
However, LMD have re-submitted their request for reasons outlined in

ATTACHMENT 2 which is an email from my DDC Co-Manager Michael
Lautenschlager (dated 12 February 1999). In this ATTACHMENT Michael makes
a proposal to include the LMD model runs, but as 'related modelling
results' rather than as 'full status' DDC results.
We need to take TGCIA soundings on this. Strictly, the LMD runs do *not*
qualify according to the criteria the TGCIA established back in May 1997.
The question is how flexible are we prepared to be and whether including
model runs with a different experimental design may either a) confuse
impacts users and/or b) invalidate inter-model comparisons. Bear in mind
also that if/when new GCM results forced by SRES forcings are generated
this summer and beyond, we will need to consult again about how the DDC
handles/presents these new SRES runs. At present the DDC does not have a
mandate for these either.
Please would you submit your opinions to me by Monday 12 April. I will

then compile the views expressed and make a recommendation.
2. DDC mirror web sites.

------------------------
With the DDC web site now fully operational (and the CD-ROM about to be
released) we need to consider our idea for mirror sites around the world.
Users are picking up data and information from both the Yellow Pages (full
GCM archive site) and Green Pages (synthesised GCM results, observed data,
and other scenario data and visualisation), but for some
users/regions/operations access is very slow.
Proposed mirror sites might include: CSIRO (Victoria), IIT (Delhi), NCAR
(USA) and Cape Town (S.Africa). Maybe a Japanese site also.
The mirror sites could consist only of the Green Pages (about 0.5GB
requirement) or both Green and Yellow Pages (several GB requirement, but I
have not checked exactly how much with DKRZ). I know that we can arrange
for the mirror sites to automatically refresh every 24 hours therefore
reflecting perfectly any developments on the host mother-site (i.e., the
mirror sites must be perfect mirrors).
Could I also ask for your views on the desirability of these options,
whether Green only or Green plus Yellow, how many mirrors and where they
should be? Please let me have your views on this also by Monday 12 April.
*********
In considering both these questions it is perhaps worth thinking about the
longer-term future of the DDC beyond TAR and into 4th IPCC Assessment.
Although TGCIA and the DDC has now only a mandate through the lifetime of
TAR, for us to really learn from our experiences and to achieve full
benefits for IPCC, then we need to be thinking ahead beyond year 2000.
*********
Mike Hulme
____________________________________________________________________________
___
ATTACHMENT 1
____________________________________________________________________________
___
Subject:
From: [email protected] at internet
Date: 9/7/98 9:08 pm
Dear Maria,
At the IPCC meeting a week ago, I spoke with M. Hulme concerming the
possibility of having our simulations being integrated in the IPCC
data base (DDA?)
I think that our simulations meet a number of the criteria:

- the control simulation is 200 years long
- the model has participated to CIMP1 and CMIP2
- it is described in details (description posted on the WEb in the
Euroclivar Web site: http://www.knmi.nl/euroclivar)
Our main problem concerns the definition of the experiments. We have used
a model without flux correction and have decided to start from observed
Levitus data. The coupled model has some drift but it stabilizes rather
quickly and the thermohaline circulation is quite stable
Accordingly our initial CO2 value corresponds to a recent past: 320 ppm.
>From that value we have increased directly the CO2 concentration of
1 percent per year. We have therefore not allowed for an 'historic'
increase of the CO2 before the actual 1percent increase, which is due
to a lack of understanding of the IPCC rules.
My feeling is that scientifically this is not too important (we have

no 'cold start' symptom when we look at the difference between the
perturbed and controled run). I have realized that in the context
of the IPCC, however, people may think otherwise.
My question is two-fold:
- Can our experiment nevertheless be integrated in the IPCC data base.
This is important to us: if it cannot we will not realize the sulfate
experiment we had planned to do, and wait for the future scenarios to be
decided.
- I hope that I will be more easily aware of the IPCC initiatives in the
future. But is there any procedure through which we can make sure in
advance that a given experiment we decide to carry out does get
approoved by the IPCC?
Sincerely yours
Herve
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Herve Le Treut
Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Universite PetM Curie ,
Tour15-25, 5eme etage, boite 99, 4 place Jussieu 75252 Paris Cedex 05
(mail sent to Ecole Normale Superieure also reaches me)
tel: +33 (xxx xxxx xxxxfax : +33 (xxx xxxx xxxx
secretariat du LMD a Jussieu: +33 (xxx xxxx xxxx
------------------------------------------------------------------------
_______________________________________________________________
ATTACHMENT 2
________________________________________________________________
Hamburg, den 12. February 1999 (15:00)
Dear Maria and Mike,
last week I have a discussion with Herve LeTreut from LMD in Paris about
the DDC rejection of the French contribution to the climate scenario
calculations. He informed that the climate modellers are running into
political difficulties because no French data are contained in the DDC.
We have rejected the data last year because they design of his
experiments are not directly comparable to the DDC requirements. A
recalculation is not possible within short term.
In order to prevent the French colleagues from difficulties I suggest to

install an additional section in our DDC page which may be entitled 'DDC
related modelling results'. In this section Herve`s data as well as data
from other groups can be disseminated. The processing priority is
certainly lower than for the direct DDC data.
Do you agree with my suggestion?
Best regards, Michael
*****************************************************************************
Dr Mike Hulme
Norwich NR4 7TJ
*****************************************************************************
Annual mean temperature in Central England during 1999
is about +1.5 deg C above the 1xxx xxxx xxxxaverage
***************************************************
The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly for 1998
was +0.58 deg C above the 1xxx xxxx xxxxaverage, the warmest year yet recorded
*****************************************************************************

Emails

Subject: Re: ipcc update
Date: Mon Apr 12 13:22:xxx xxxx xxxx
Mike
I am off to Finland for a week but I am sending you (via Tim) a copy of a draft
perspectives piece for Science on you recent 1000-year reconstruction paper . They
want to run it in early May I think and I have been told I will see their edited
draft on my return. The idea was to make a wider comment that just report on your
latest curve so I decided to mention uncertainties in tree-ring data while pushing
the need for more work on high-resolution proxies and especially interpretive work
in the very recent context of high temperatures and other possible anthropogenic
environmental disturbance. The trouble is that they would only give us 1000 words
and one Figure. Anyway this Figure now contains a selection of various large-scale
temperature average series - all recalibrated against northern warm season (april-
sept) average land data north of 20 degrees north. This is just to provide a
convenient common scale - all the original season /area references are given. You
will see that this brings phil's curve nicely back in line and the correct (low
frequency ) density curve now fits better also. I have taken the opportunity to
put our new longish (2000-year)tree-ring width curve in representing the north of
Europe/Siberia . This is the average of Tornetrask(Sweden) and Yamal and
Taimyr(Siberia ) - all processed to retain low-frequency variance. These curves
and a similar average incorporating all the Northern tree-ring data (not including
the large density set) are in my paper for the Pages open science meeting
publication. Tim and I will produce a short paper describing the new low-frequency
density curve , probably for Geophysical Research Letters. For the meantime I hope
you think the perspectives piece is O.K. Let me know if you have any problems with
it - but remember that they are going to hack it about anyway. By the way, how did
you compare the high-elevation (PC1) timeseries with Jacoby and D'Arrigo's
northern treeline data in your paper when the latter only go back to 1671 ? Did
you use their reworked Gidding's dataset for Alaska?
Thanks for the message on the IPCC stuff . I am happy to write any additional bits
or make suggestions . Sorry I did not get back to you last time but I was confused
about the timetable . Thanks for putting my name on the list. I will make comments
again as soon as I see the next draft. Cheers
Keith

>
>Dear Phil, Keith,
>
>An update on IPCC. Almost done w/ my revisions, taking into account
>yours and Phil's comments, and included the *correct* briffa et al
>series. Keith--added your name in the contributor list. Sorry for
>the earlier omission (I hadn't heard from you at the point I
>wrote the initial draft)...
>
>A couple things--Phil can you send a copy of the in-press Rev
>Geophys. article as soon as possible? I'd like to have a copy
>for my own records...
>
>Also, I'm going to have to leave it to you to insert some
>of the references you mentioned in your comments which I'm
>not familiar with. Also, you'll need to supply an updated
>reference for the Briffa et al series as soon as it is
>ready.
>
>I'll send you the revised draft when I finish it within a day
>or two, at the same time I send it to Chris, Jim, and Jean. We'll
>need to incorporate Pfister's contribution (if it ever comes in),
>and Jim and Jean's suggestions at the next stage. I believe it
>will be Chris' responsibility to coordinate this. Anyways, more
>from me soon...
>
>best,
>
>mike
>_______________________________________________________________________
> Michael E. Mann
>________Current_____________________________Starting Fall 1999_________
>Adjunct Assistant Professor | Assistant Professor
>Department of Geosciences | Dept. of Environmental Sciences
>Morrill Science Center | Clark Hall
>University of Massachusetts | University of Virginia
>Amherst, MA 01xxx xxxx xxxx | Charlottesville, VA 22903
>_________________________________|_____________________________________
>e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] (attachments)
> Phone: (4xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (4xxx xxxx xxxx
> http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/mike
>

Emails
Subject: No Subject
Date: Tue, 13 Apr 1999 15:05:xxx xxxx xxxx(EDT)
[email protected]
Dear Keith
(Tim, please get this to Keith by FAX or other means, if

he is unlikely to have received this at his own email while traveling).
It's a good piece overall. As you might suspect, I do have several

comments. Ray and Malcolm may send along a few of their own. Malcolm
in particular may want to comment on some of your points regarding
dendroclmiatic series and our ITRDB PC#1 series which figures
so prominently in our millennial reconstruction.
1) page 2, top paragraph:
It's is very misleading to make it sound as if we are strictly

reconstructing northern hemisphere mean temperature, and then
say "4 of the records are actually from the southern hemisphere
locations". This is misleading for a number of reasons. First of
all, if one is going after true northern hemisphere areally-weighted
mean temperature xxx xxxx xxxxdegrees (as we are), then the southern hemisphere
tropics are actually more relevant than the high-latitudes of the
Northern Hemisphere. Careful diagnostics of surface temperature
covariances by Alexey Kaplan, Mark Cane and others have shown this
clearly to be true. BUt more than that, we are reconstructing the full
20th century surface temperature domain shown in Figure 1 of our '98
Nature paper. This is a GLOBAL domain, albeit sparse outside the southern
hemisphere tropics/subtropics, particularly the southern oceans,
for obvious regions. THe proxy network roughly overlaps the spatial
domain of surface temperature we are reconstructing (ie, compare
Nature '98 figure 1a and figure 1b). We choose to diagnose from
this spatial domain the northern hemisphere mean only because that
is the hemisphere for which we can meaningfully talk about a
true hemispheric mean. But both the predictor and predictand have
a global distribution. Without going on and on, I think its clear
why your comments here are a bit unfair in how they represent why
we use southern hemisphere data. This is probably the most important
point that needs to be revised here.
2) page 2, 2nd paragraph
A minor point, but an important one: It is incorrect to say the

our uncertainties are based only on "a consideration ...goodnest
of fit...over the calibration period"! This is not correct. A
key point is that the verification period (1xxx xxxx xxxx) diagnostics
(though based on a somewhat sparser distribution of gridpoint
data from which NH mean temp can be estimated) give very nearly
identifical diagnostics in terms of unresolved reconstructed
NH mean temp variance. So our uncertainties are based both
on 20th century calibration and independent confirmation from
19th century data. PLEASE MAKE SURE this is clear.
On the bigger point being made here, I agree w/ you in principle,

and this is a point that Phil has raised too: what we *DONT*
take into account (though I challenge anyone to really ever
be able to take this into account!) is the unknown potential
bias due to degradation from diminishing quality of the underlying
proxy data back in time. However, on some of the specific
points in that regard, it is very likely not a significant
concern in our reconstructions. We closely examined the spectra
of the underlying proxy data to insure that those upon which
our reconstruction ultimately relies have the amount of
millennial scale trend/variability that would be expected for
a climatic series for at least the null hypothesis of red noise.
Malcolm independently examined the tree ring chronologies underlying
our ITRDB PC #1 to verify that the standardization was appropriately
conservative for a millennial-scale reconstruction. Furthermore,
Malcolm verified that the ITRDB PC #1 is made up of heavily replicated
chronologies as far back as we use them. So neither of the
points you raise appear to be all that relevant to our reconstruction.
With regard to this point, I have some issues with your Figure
that accompanies the piece. It is quite ironic
given your comments about the potential impacts of
standardization on the long-timescale veriations. For our
millennial reconstruction we have verified as carefully as
has ever been verified, that the millennial scale trend is
likely to be meaningful. I don't think you have done so for
the 2000 year-long trend in the series you show, and if you
have not verified that it is likely to have retained 2000 year
long trends, it is VERY misleading to show this series along
with the others. I don't believe that it is likely to accurately
represent the 2000 year long trend in NOrthern Hemisphere mean
temperature, as you imply by showing it here. I think this series
needs to be removed from the plot. I have a related comment
below (point #5).
3) page 3, 1st paragraph:
Remove "this is a moot point" and replace with more appropriate

language. It is not "a moot point" because the problem you point
out has largely been shown to apply to tree ring density data
(which you have largely been using), and much less so tree
ring width data (which we are using). Furthermore, the comparison
only goes through 1980 at which point there is little evidence
that there is a significant declinde in tree ring width response,
although more evidence that there is already a problem at that
point with density data. Your criticism is not quite fair here,
and the statements should be revised to reflect more accurately
on what we have done.
4) page 3, 2nd paragraph:
When you talk about proxy-based ENSO reconstructions, you

should mention our NINO3 reconstruction! This is complementary
to Stahle's SOI reconstruction in a number of ways. The appropriate
references here are both our Nature '98 papers, and the chapter
in Henry Diaz's latest book (in the press):
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., and Hughes, M.K.,

Long-term variability in the El Nino
Southern Oscillation and associated teleconnections, Diaz, H.F. & Markgraf,V.,
(eds) El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and
its Impacts on
Natural Ecosystems and Society, Cambridge University Press, xxx xxxx xxxx,
Cambridge,
UK, in press, 1999.
if you care to, you can download the galley version here:
ftp://eclogite.geo.umass.edu/pub/mann/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/ENSO-recon/
in either pdf format (chapter-diaz.pdf) or postscript (chapter-diaz.ps)
5) accompanying figure (see also my point #3):
There are problems with the 2000 year series in terms

of your definition of the baseline for comparing with the
other series, and this differs quite a bit from what
we are likely to be showing in IPCC. It appears that both
the density NH reconstruction and your 2000 year long
series fall at least 0.1C below the other series during
the 20th century, and are probably running at least that
much too cold the whole way through.
Also, correct "global temperature and non-temperature proxies"

in your description of our series to "global climate proxies"
which is a more honest way of describing them given our
methodological approach, and make sure it is clear to the
readers which series are extratropical and warm season, and
which are full northern hemisphere/annual mean estimates (ours).
Such discussion will, again, figure prominently in IPCC, and
it would be a shame for Science to be publishing something
that is misleading in that respect. In part, it was this issue
that forced the publication of a followup to Phil's perspective
by me, Ray, Malcolm, and Phil a year ago, and it would be nice
to avoid that scenario this time around...
_______________________________________________________________
Thanks for your consideration of the above comments. I believe
your piece will make an excellent "Perspectives" article for
Science, once these comments are appropriately taken into account.
I'll leave it to the Science editor in charge to determine if
that is the case.
best regards,
mike.
_______________________________________________________________________
Michael E. Mann
________Current_____________________________Starting Fall 1999_________
Adjunct Assistant Professor | Assistant Professor
Department of Geosciences | Dept. of Environmental Sciences
Morrill Science Center | Clark Hall
University of Massachusetts | University of Virginia
Amherst, MA 01xxx xxxx xxxx | Charlottesville, VA 22903
_________________________________|_____________________________________
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] (attachments)
Phone: (4xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (4xxx xxxx xxxx
http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/mike

Emails
From: Brian Luckman <[email protected]>

Subject: GROVE REVIEW
Date: Tue, 13 Apr 1999 16:33:xxx xxxx xxxx
Keith,
The attachment is in WORD and better formatted.
Brian
Dear Keith,
Enclosed please find my comments on Jean Grove's paper. It gives the

impression of a cut and paste job written in haste with several minor
annoying errors. It lacks the synthesis I would have expected and reads
like a catalogue. The paper is also not as comprehensive as would appear
from the title. Six months ago I reviewed a paper by her ( for Astrid) on
"The Initiation of the Little Ice Age in regions round the North Atlantic".
The paper she submitted to you is clearly complementary and reviews " the
rest of the world" for comparison with the classic areas discussed in the
earlier paper. Yet the earlier paper is only alluded to once (rather coyly)
and does not appear in the references. This surely has to be significantly
recognised in the title and body of this paper, because as it stands, the
review of this earlier (best dated) material is far from adequate.
I cannot speak for most of these data directly but the North American
material I am familiar with is not particularly up to date (though in
fairness most of Greg Wiles's stuff is still in press). I have sent her
under separate cover copies of my Little Ice Age in the Rockies paper
(about 6 months ago) and more recently the Luckman and Villalba review
paper on glacier fluctuations of the last Millennium along the PEP-1
transect. (copies are on their way to you too).
I think her mixing the discussion of ice core records and glacier histories
significantly muddies the waters on whether the term LIA should be used to
refer to a glacier or a climate event. I feel this should be addressed and
the paper needs a more effective conclusion. She must also decide whether
she wants diagrams or tables.
I don't know how she will take these criticisms but, as she is just
finishing revising the book, I would have thought she could have presented
a better synthesis. I leave it to your judgement as to how to deal with
these comments. The paper could be much better but that depends on how much
she is willing to reorganise and to some extent rethink what she has written.
I am sending you this e-mail. Do you want me to return the manuscript to

you? If you wish I can also e-mail WORD copies of the two papers to you (
and her) if you wish a rapid turnaround. But you will only get the diagrams
by mail. If I don't hear from you tomorrow I'll just put everything in the
mail.
Cheers
Brian
Review of "The Initiation of the Little Ice Age" by Jean Grove
This paper is a useful summary but needs significant fine-tuning and

possibly retitling before it should be accepted. The title promises a
comprehensive review that the text does not deliver. When I first read this
paper I kept asking myself- where is the discussion of all the well-dated
early LIA material from Switzerland, Canada and Alaska? Then I remembered
the paper by the author that I reviewed 6 months ago entitled "The
Initiation of the Little Ice Age in Regions round the North Atlantic". The
present paper is not a global review of evidence but a companion paper that
compares the "Rest of the World" with the "European/North Atlantic record"
discussed in that earlier paper. The crux of the problem is the first
sentence after the title "Little Ice Age Initiation

Emails
Subject: oops typo. disregard previous message
Date: Wed, 14 Apr 1999 16:06:xxx xxxx xxxx(EDT)
Dear Tim,
Thanks for your comments. Some responses to them are

given below. I'll be too busy for further correspondance
as I prepare for travel, leaving Friday morning for a week.
Since I will be away and unreachable through next wednesday.

I would thus request that you and Keith correspond with
my co-authors Ray Bradley (who should be able to
respond upon his return from current travel on Sunday
/Monday) and Malcolm Hughes on the revisions (please cc to
me so I can read upon my return), as I will be unreachable.
I'm sure we can come up with something mutually agreeable

to all of us with this piece, as is my goal with IPCC, as
long as their is proper communication and mutual understanding
by all concerned. Lets strive for this--choice of language
is a nontrivial element...
best regards,
mike.
____________________________COMMENTS________________________
One additional new comment:
0) 1st page, "In attemping to do this...Mann at al...exemplifies"

is unacceptable language to us. We confront the very problems
that are being discussed here, so it is a disservice to us
to say our paper "exemplifies" these problems. It "exposes"
or "confronts" would be fair language, but "exmemplifies" is
unacceptable.
responses to your responses to my original comments:
1) I'm not sure how to interpret your response vis-a-vis

my original comments here. My point is that our use
of southern hemisphere records in the reconstructions
is fundamentally sound, from the point of view of some very
basic principles of optimal interpolation, etc., and given
the domain we are reconstructing, which is not NH only,
although we diagnose NH from our pattern reconstructions
as a key index. There is no basis for what sounds like
a criticism of our use of such data. I couldn't tell
if you were agreeing with this or not from your commments.
2) The uncertainties are determined from the uncalibrated

variance given a certain predictor network. The predictor
network is unchanged from 1820 to present, so the verification
period (1xxx xxxx xxxx) unresolved variance is an independent check on the
calibration period unresolved variance. Both gives numbers in
the range of 30% for the NH mean temperature reconstruction,
meaning that the error bars we determine from verification period
are essentially the same as those we determine from the calibration
period. IN this sense, the error bars as determined
from calibration and verification are essentially identical,
The bottom line, if we had used the verification period
to estimate the error bars, the eye would barely see the difference.
There may be a considerable misunderstanding on your/Keiths part, regarding

regarding what is actually shown by the spectrum of calibration residuals
in our GRL paper. It does not in any way conflict with what I indicate
above. What this particular diagnostic shows is that
there is no evidence of any increase in unresolved secular variance
(ie century-scale and longer) in our reconstructions at least
back to 1600. In contrast, there is evidence that such frequencies
are not as well resolved as higher frequencies with the sparser
predictor network available before 1600. Our estimates of
uncertainty TAKE THIS FACT *EXPLICITLY* INTO ACCOUNT. Our uncertainties
estimates are made up of two components that add in quadrature,
including a component of uncertainty in the lowest-frequency variability
as estimated from the spectrum shown, and a component of the
highest-frequency variability from the spectrum shown. THese are
approximated as a step-wise break in the mean (white noise) level of
unresolved variance at the edge of the secular band. Unlike any
previous study, we have actually estimated the increased uncertainty due
to the loss of low-frequency variability as it can best be estimated,
and this is explicitly incorporated into our error bars, which
is why those error bars expand considerably before 1600. This
is discussed in the GRL paper, and is a VERY important fact. It
would be very unfortunate if this fact were misrepresented!
3) I'll leave this to Keith and Malcolm to discuss (Malcom?). I

think it is pretty clear in the paper what our assumptions are
here, and what the justification is of those assumptions. There
is of course room for differing opinions on this stuff, as
it is all somewhat speculative, and we indicate that this is so
in our paper.
4) good enough
5) I really doubt that the 2000 year trend is meaningful and, unlike
the results we have shown, there is no confirmation that these 3
sites accurately reflect northern hemisphere mean temperatures
to any reasonable level during the modern era.
Work by us and others looking at similar

data would suggest that series in such regions are not adequately
representative of the largest-scale trends. There is, further, no
verification of the frequency-domain attributes pass any satisfactory
test. For these reasons, I have informed Julia Uppenbrink directly
that I don't believe this series should be shown in this context.
I agree it is an important series, and it will be appropriate
to discuss it in IPCC. But it should not be considered on a
par with more statistically-verified true Northern Hemisphere
mean temperature reconstructions, and it is very misleading to
show it along with the NH mean reconstructions. The 2000 year
trend runs absolutely counter to everything we know about
the mid holocene. Extratropical Northern Hemisphere summer
temperatures should have been at an absolute peak 4xxx xxxx xxxxybp,
and the 2000 year trend *ought* to at least be heading in that
direction. The fact that is doesn't, and that the trend hasn't
been verified in the sense discussed above, causes me real
concern. It would be misleading to argue we have any reason
to believe that NH mean temperatures have done what that series
does 2000 years back in time...
Re, the adjustment of the series, I believe it is fundamentally

unsound. Essentially, agreement over the period we can best
constrained (20th century) has been sacrifices for agreement
during the period we can't constrain, apparently for the sake
of getting the different series to align during the 19th century.
Please download the figures I have prepared for the latest IPCC
report.
ftp://eclogite.geo.umass.edu/pub/mann/IPCC/nhemcompare-ipcc.gif
OR
ftp://eclogite.geo.umass.edu/pub/mann/IPCC/nhemcompare-ipcc.ps
You will see how I have aligned the series based on a 1xxx xxxx xxxx
reference period for the instrumental series, and a 20th baseline
adjustment for the alignment of all series. To me, this is the
most reasonable adjusment of the series if they are to be shown
together. It also shows the different that latitudinal variations
make EXPLICITLY by showing the difference between our
TRUE xxx xxxx xxxxlat weighted) NH annual mean temp series, and
an extratropical xxx xxxx xxxxdeg lat) average from our pattern
reconstructions, which approaches quite closely the Overpeck
et al '97 and Jones et al '98 series. Seasonal distinctions
then the key remain difference. This is, I believe, the
best approach to the comparisons, and the one I will favor
in IPCC.
The alternative is that true NH mean temperatures and

extratropical NH mean temperatures must be shown on separate plots,
because adjusting them the way Keith has provides a misleading
picture, and one that I don't believe can be justified for the
purposes of IPCC, regardless of what you choose to do with your
Science piece.

Emails
From: "Raymond S. Bradley" <[email protected]>

Subject: CENSORED!!!!!
Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 10:41:xxx xxxx xxxx
>Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 10:06:xxx xxxx xxxx

>To: [email protected]
>From: "Raymond S. Bradley" <[email protected]>
>Subject: Climate warming prespctives article
>Cc: [email protected], [email protected]
>
>I have just returned from Finland and have now read all the correspondence
regarding the Science perspectives article you asked Keith Briffa & Tim
Osborn to write. I've sent Tim Osborn & Keith Briffa a few suggestions re
their perspectives article. If you would like to see them, let me know.
>I would like to diasassociate myself from Mike Mann's view that
"xxxxxxxxxxx" and that they "xxxxxxxxxxxxx". I find this notion quite
absurd. I have worked with the UEA group for 20+ years and have great
respect for them and for their work. Of course, I don't agree with
everything they write, and we often have long (but cordial) arguments about
what they think versus my views, but that is life. Indeed, I know that they
have broad disagreements among themselves, so to refer to them as "the UEA
group", as though they all march in lock-step seems bizarre.
>As for thinking that it is "Better that nothing appear, than something
unnacceptable to us" .....as though we are the gatekeepers of all that is
acceptable in the world of paleoclimatology seems amazingly arrogant.
Science moves forward whether we agree with individiual articles or not....
>
>Sincerely,
>
>
Raymond S. Bradley
Professor and Head of Department
Department of Geosciences
Amherst, MA 01xxx xxxx xxxx
Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
Climate System Research Center: xxx xxxx xxxx
Climate System Research Center Web Site:
<http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/climate.html

Emails
Subject: Ray's coments
Date: Tue, 20 Apr 1999 09:12:xxx xxxx xxxx(EDT)
Dear all,
Ray accurately (though w/ not the same level of detail) obviously

recapitulates my main concerns here. As for the one area of
disagreement (not understanding the reason for expecting an overal
cooling during the 1st millennium), I'll refer Ray to the appropriate
areas of his Paleoclimatology text book, and show him some
additional recent work relevant to this, upon my return.
Thanks again to all for working to make the final product one
we can all be happy with.
best regards,
mike
_______________________________________________________________________
Michael E. Mann
________Current_____________________________Starting Fall 1999_________
Adjunct Assistant Professor | Assistant Professor
Department of Geosciences | Dept. of Environmental Sciences
Morrill Science Center | Clark Hall
University of Massachusetts | University of Virginia
Amherst, MA 01xxx xxxx xxxx | Charlottesville, VA 22903
_________________________________|_____________________________________
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] (attachments)
Phone: (4xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (4xxx xxxx xxxx
http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/mike

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From: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" <tatm@xxxxxxxxx.

Dear Keith, March 6, 1996

I and Eugene received your E-mail of 04.03.1996. This day I talked

Yours sincerely Stepan Shiyatov

From: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" <[email protected]>

Sincerely yours Stepan Shiyatov

Original Filename: 835819980.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later

Prepare for and participate in 9/17-18, 1996 meetings on greenhouse signal.

Provide a summary report on the preliminary analysis of ?????? on or

Original Filename: 837094033.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later

From: Alan Robock <[email protected]>

Prof. Alan Robock Phone: (3xxx xxxx xxxx

On Thu, 11 Jul 1996, Phil Jones wrote:

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From: Keith Briffa <[email protected]>

>Date: Fri, 12 Jul 1996 12:05:15 +0100

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From: John Daly <[email protected]>

Have you tried this approach?

data = ReadList[ "c:sydney.txt", Number]

fitfun1 = Fit[data,{1,x,x^2,x^3,Sin[11 2 Pi x/dataElements],

"Mathematica" first plots out the data itself (see Atachment 1)

John Daly http://www.vision.net.au/~daly

Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachSydney.gif

Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachSolar1.gif

Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachSolar2.gif

Original Filename: 839858862.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later

From: Tom Wigley <[email protected]>

(1) Why study den-cen? Reason is: improve understanding of climate

(3) How useful are paleodata? I support the continued collection of

(a) Sedimentary records---dating. Are 14C-dated records of any value at

(c) Climate variance explained by the proxy variable--close to zero for

(e) Frequency dependence of explained variance---the classic example

I hope these very hasty ramblings are helpful

On Thu, 8 Aug 1996, it was written:

> Dear Colleague:

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From: [email protected] (by way of Tim Osborn <[email protected]>)

From: CPCMB::Fxxx xxxx xxxxJUL-1995 10:53:56.46

- some LSG/EBM configurations still oscillate,

The SALFLU_EBM file is not readable yet, although it is there.

Tim Tim Osborn, CRU, UEA, UK

Original Filename: 841418825.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later

From: Keith Briffa <[email protected]>

At 13:52 27/08/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:

It is good news indeed that these initiatives are now meaningfully

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From: Keith Briffa <[email protected]>

At 16:44 11/09/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:

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From: Keith Briffa <[email protected]>

Original Filename: 843161829.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later

From: Gary Funkhouser <[email protected]>

Thanks for your consideration. Once I get a draft of the central

I really wish I could be more positive about the Kyrgyzstan material,

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From: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" <[email protected]>

begin 644 data.arj

Original Filename: 845217169.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later

From: Fred Pearce <[email protected]>