E-commerce and Consequences for the

Logistics Industry




Ola Hultkrantz
Kenth Lumsden

Department of Transportation and Logistics
Chalmers University of Technology
S-412 96 Gteborg, Sweden
fax: +46 31 772 13 37
e-mail: [email protected]
[email protected]


ABSTRACT
The aim of this study the logistics consequences of the development of E-commerce concerning physical
products. This will be performed with a Supply Chain view and the perspective from the transport and logistic
provider.
An e-commerce model is created by a number of different logistic forces. The model have emerged out of the
competitive forces model by Porter. This e-commerce model is demonstrated by a number of examples. Here the
model is used to indicate the way the logistics industry will be positioned in the future. A number of case studies
have been performed. To analyse the case studies the model is used. The model shows distinctly the way the five
competitive forces influences the e-commerce companies as well as the logistics industry. This facilitates for the
logistics industry to take a larger part of the value chain.
The focus is directed towards the design and the management of different concepts for the physical distribution.
The interrelation between these concepts and the flow structure and the information systems along the Supply
Chain are to be defined. Models for internet distribution as well as for for upstream and downstream
consequences for Internet buying will shown.
Key words: e-logistics, e-commerce, e-business, logistics, supply chain management and distribution



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1 E-commerce and its consequences for logistics
1.1 Background
Interest in the Internet has changed so drastically in recent years that one can speak of a universal breakthrough.
The remarkable increase in users can be attributed mainly to the appeal of the World Wide Web, the Internet
feature that is enjoying the greatest growth (Bergendahl et al., 1998). There is some uncertainty about how much
the Internet and electronic commerce (e-commerce) are being used, and especially about the expansion of such
usage in the future. At the same time, e-commerce is a new phenomenon that is surely going to have an
enormous impact and significantly change the way both individuals and companies shop, manage their business
activities and distribute their products.
The number of households in Europe connected to the Internet is expected to triple, to 50 million, by the year
2004 (Erlandsson and Linden, 1999). But usage will not expand uniformly. Persistent forecasts of explosive
increases in sales of goods via the Internet have so far been wrong. In Sweden, The Swedish Research Institute
of Trade (HUI), recently assessed retail sales via the Internet to be SEK 600 million, which corresponds to a
trifling 0.2% of total retail turnover, (Karp, 1999). Increased access to Internet services must be accommodated
by improvements in flow structures. The increased access to and offers of information created by the Internet
must consequently be accompanied by a different distribution structure, one assuring that goods can even
physically be transported to the customer quickly and rationally.
E-commerce will open an entirely new market for actors in the logistics field. Logistics and distribution systems
that function efficiently and effectively in all respects will be crucial for the success of the companies involved.
This implies that manufacturing companies, and especially logistics companies, must identify and create
effective logistics solutions in order to compete on the marketplace.
Ordering materials of various kinds electronically, and primarily via the Internet, will become more and more
common. This applies not only to business-to-business but also to business-to-customer. This end consumer will
normally be a private person who orders everything from books, clothes and food to a new model computer. The
result is that the end consumer can receive and will demand to receive the goods ordered significantly faster than
via traditional distribution. The subsequent result will be shorter lead times, the disappearance of one or more
physical intermediaries, and direct transports to far more addresses, especially in those cases where retail stores
are circumvented. We can anticipate less use of private cars, but more employment of delivery vans, as well as
smaller orders to be shipped longer distances, especially in the international context.
During the preliminary phase, we might expect these consequences to imply greater direct costs, while the
consumers indirect costs for seeking, ordering and having their purchases deliver to their homes will go down.
Simultaneously, however, we will see new opportunities for creating entirely new distribution systems involving
different flow streams than those with which we are familiar. The companies who can cope with these demands
with new approaches to production and distribution will be able to create new business opportunities and prepare
for a greatly increased market for their products.
The Internet signifies new opportunities for reaching the global market. Yet this, in turn, also signifies great
demands on the actors who want to exploit these opportunities. Right now, there are several big actors who
market themselves solely via the Internet (e.g. the booksellers Amazon.com and bokus.se), yet there are very few
who do this profitably. Making it possible to use the Internet as a marketing channel requires new knowledge
about how the entire logistics system needs to be developed in various environments and about the
consequences this will imply for other actors.
1.2 Subperspectives
The literature in the field of e-commerce is dominated by empirical descriptions of pioneers in the area like Dell,
Amazon.com, etc., as well as articles in the popular press. Research has so far mainly concerned either the
marketing and positioning perspectives or the technical perspective; see for example Wigand (1997). There is a
paucity of research focusing on logistical consequences.
In this context, logistics is heavily dependent on how marketing channels will develop as a result of e-commerce
and the roles that will be played by various actors in the marketing channels of the future. This in turn has a
direct influence on how the physical flows will be designed to cope with the increased complexity (from the

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logistics point of view) resulting from more deliveries to more final destinations. And this, in turn, will have an
effect on the volume of transportation and hence the environment.
In similar fashion, there is an inverse dependency between environmental impact and the design of marketing
channels, which in a second loop can lead to adapting future marketing channels to minimize possible negative
impact on the environment resulting from increased use of e-commerce.

Environmental
perspective
----------
Green logistics
Logistic companies
perspective
----------
Transport logistics
Shippers
perspective
----------
Marketing logistics

Figure 1. The three sub-perspectives in the research project.
Cooperation among Chalmers University of Technology, Linkping Institute of Technology and Lund Institute
of Technology as well as with the involved companies (Danzas, Kontorab, Luna, SCA, Schenker, Tertra Pak and
Volvo) provides us with unique competence in this field for creating basic knowledge about the logistical
consequences by studying all three areas in parallel in the following three subprojects:
different roles in the marketing channel,
new flow structures and
implications for transports and the environment
2 New flow structures as a consequence of E-commerce
2.1 Flow requirements
Industry observers expect e-commerce volume to triple in two years, even though their current expectations vary.
Business-to-business e-commerce revenues are currently a lot larger than those of business-to-consumer and are
forecasted to stay so in the near future. The market for consumer e-commerce requires a major shift in consumer
buying patterns and a much larger penetration of the Internet in order to become really big (Cherrington &
Capoor, 1999).
Some say the Internet will take over all commerce. That everybody will soon shop on the Web. Others say it is
just a fad, and that the Net cannot offer anything of lasting value (Dahln, 1997). It is recognized that the Internet
offers a lot of opportunities. But in order for it to become a large, global channel of sales, there are some growth
requirements that have to be fulfilled for e-commerce to truly take off, e.g.:
1. The basic infrastructure must be in place, including logistics.
2. Customers and businesses must have access to the Internet.
3. Sites must have multiple language functions.
4. The cost of Internet access must decrease.
5. E-commerce must be safe in terms of privacy and monetary transactions.
6. The speed of the technology must be satisfactory.
7. International standards must develop.
Interest in the Internet has increased dramatically during the last few years. The Internet is an abstract network
(further explained in the section about systems ability to change below) which means that implementation times
are short and the developments around it are happening very fast. Consequently, Internet use will shift from

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people with highly developed computer skills to ordinary people, which will result in new possibilities for
shopping over the net (e-commerce). This in turn will lead to new business opportunities for all sorts of
companies. The products still need to be delivered to the customers however, and effective logistics and
distribution systems are hence essential for the success of new business.
J ust as with every new phenomenon, the definition of e-commerce is still slightly vague and unclear. E-
commerce is one part of e-business, which in turn can be described as the new business logic sanctioned by
Internet technology. This new logic
spans entire value chains and creates new economic value,
breaks down borders and hence relationships,
impacts on large empires as well as new start-ups (Erlandsson & Lindn, 1999).
The differences between traditional business logic and the new e-business logic can be seen in Table 1 below.
One trend that can be seen throughout the new logic is that it is focused on building a network consisting of
suppliers, manufacturers, and customers. Customers can participate in product development by surveys on the
Internet, and are thereby, besides helping to develop the product, becoming more loyal customers. Suppliers are
seen as partners participating in joint ventures with the company. Production is made to order instead of to stock
so as to be more customer adapted. And customer service is becoming more and more important when
companies are trying to create a loyal customer segment.
Table 1 Differences between the old and the new business logic (Erlandsson & Lindn, 1999)
Value chain Old logic New logic
Product development Technology driven Customer driven
Procurement Suppliers are suppliers Suppliers are partners
Production To stock To order
Marketing Market share Share of customer
Sales Traditional channels Over the web
Order fulfilment It comes when it comes Value added functionality over the web
After sales Customer service second priority Customer service is the key to survival

One definition of e-commerce might be "E-commerce includes everything from learning about products online
and electronic transactions to online customer service and support, Kevin Koym, president of Praxsys System
Development (Erlandsson & Lindn, 1999).
Alternative media for e-commerce
In the future, e-commerce need not necessarily mean the transaction between a web shop and a customer
computer; the transaction might just as well be between an ordinary TV and a TV network. This means that it
will be possible, for example, to order products from television advertising directly from the TV set.
New openings for transportation companies
With e-commerce, a whole new market will open up for transportation and logistics companies, or whatever they
may be called in the future. At present e-commerce is pursued to a fairly high degree between companies, but is
still not very developed between companies and private persons. The business-to-consumer (B2C) relation is
expected to grow rapidly though, and when this happens it will result in several changes for actors in the
logistics area. When delivering to private persons instead of companies, the demand for fast and accurate
deliveries will increase. This is because one or more of the physical nodes will disappear when the goods can be
transported directly from the producing company to the end customer. Direct home deliveries will request
shorter lead times, and more complex distribution systems will be necessary to make this possible.
Expected trends in traffic and distribution from a widely spread use of e-commerce are fewer passenger cars, an
increased number of pickup trucks, and smaller consignments, especially on international transports.

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Like all other industries, logistics has to consider e-commerce, evaluate the importance of the trend and
determine what impacts it could imply. Most other industries are customers of logistics in one way or another,
implying that any trend likely to impact other industries will certainly have an impact on the logistics industry.
Therefore, the logistics industry has to face the challenges and opportunities created by e-commerce, both from
within the industry and from external players. The industry has always been pressed to cut costs and squeeze
margins, and the future will be even more formidable as competition forces most companies to continue the
streamlining of their business.
2.2 Model for information in e-commerce
Internet technology has forced companies to redefine their business models so as to improve the extended
enterprise performance (Simchi-Levi and Simchi-Levi, 2001). A model describing how the Internet and
information influences the business structure has been developed. The base for the model is Porters five forces
model (Porter, 1980). This model is generally used to analyse a companys position on the market and is used
frequently as a means to evaluate the potential of a specific company. There is however nothing that stops us
from redesigning the model to analyse e-commerce.

Potential
Entrants
Substitutes
Suppliers

Buyers
Threats of
New Entrants
Threat of Substitute
Products or Services
Bargaining Power
of Suppliers
Bargaining Power
of Buyers
Producer Consumer
Logistics Company
Established brands
Rivalry Among
Existing Firms
Portal Competitors
Figure 2 Model for Information in e-commerce (adapted from Porter, 1980)
A range of new possibilities opens up as e-commerce is implemented as a way to reach the end-consumers.
Companies will have the opportunity to establish a contact outside the traditional marketing channel. If this
becomes reality on a large scale there has to be a logistics service developed in order to correspond to the
specific needs.
Potential entrants
There will always be a threat to the established companies when a new marketing channel is implemented; areas
where established companies have failed to predict a demand. Potential entrants can also be established brands
that due to a strong trademark they have the strength and the volumes to sell directly to the end customer on the
Internet. The latter require that the trademark be sufficiently well known.
One company is Amazon.com, which by selling books on the Internet Amazon became one of the largest book
retailers in the USA. Amazon quickly became a threat to the traditional bricks and mortar companies as they

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could offer the same products to a lower price and with a higher level of customer service. By this they forced
their competitors, for example Barnes & Nobles, to take action and to establish a similar business activity.
Another example is when a product or service can be made in a completely different way. Computer
programmes or videotapes that for a long time has been sold in regular stores will soon be available on the
Internet or the cable television network making the old market structure obsolete.
Suppliers/Producers
E-commerce holds a wide range of possibilities for different actors to establish a market place for their products.
A supplier can start competing with its retailer customers, a kind of cannibalism that in the long run can drive the
traditional marketing and sales channels out of business. This can be considered as a vertical integration of the
business process where one company takes control over the whole flow of goods.
There are numbers of examples in which companies have begun to sell their products directly on the Internet as a
complement to the retailing line. Computer manufacturers, companies like Hewlett and Packard (www.hp.se)
and Compaq (www.compaq.se), have to meet the competition from Dell (www.dell.com), started to sell
computers over the Internet directly to their customers. In the future there will be opportunities for a wide range
of different companies to communicate directly to the consumers and to reduce the costs associated by selling
through a net of retailers.
Another example is where transport services are being purchased. Today the main part of all transportation
assignments is purchased through haulage contractors like Schenker or Danzas. Internet opens up new
possibilities to get in contact with customers on the logistics area.
Buyers/Consumers
At the same time as producers will take advantage of the possibilities of Internet consumers, the buyers, will use
this forum to negotiate prices and offerings. In the consumer line there are examples like Letsbuyit
(www.letsbuyit.com) and different kinds of exchange services that bring together buyers/consumers and
producers and providers of different services.
One of the logistics providers that work in this way is Waytrack (www.waytrack.com). Waytrack bring together
truck owners and small hauliers with companies that require a transport or a need for a specific capacity by being
a forum for contact. Waytrack does not interfere with the logistics service. They offer a membership to their
customers bringing them together into a site where companies that require transportation invite tenderers and
transportation companies to compete to get the assignment. In this way Waytrack is a connection between
suppliers and buyers without being a part of the transportation process, after the negotiation is finished Waytrack
has no responsibility in the transportation process.
Substitutes
As a consequence of a late refinement in the value chain new companies have become parts of the manufacturing
process, doing simple configurations to make the products correspond to the customer demands. In Sweden there
is an example where Dell computers use a logistics provider, ASG-Danzas to configure and install software on
the computers. Here the logistics company in e-commerce that in itself is a substitute for traditional commerce
takes over services from traditional retailers such as providing the client and carrying out some service on the
products.
In general there is a pattern that products are differentiated or consigned as late as possible in the supply chain.
This means that logistics companies which have access to terminals and cross-docking opportunities will be able
to take a larger part of the supply chain thus increase the potential profit margin
Today is there a battle between post offices, forwarders and integrators for global domination in the expanding
express parcel market. Since a lot of the traditional freight companies are involved we can say that this is valid
for the total freight market. Through acquisitions, deals, partnering etc. the companies try to get a complete
European network as a step towards achieving global coverage (Cronin, 2000). One thing that is behind this
network war is that the transportation companies wants to get a larger share of the supply chain, value-added
logistics (Peters and J ockel, 1998). The manufacturing companies try to postpone operations that make their
product unique for the customer. This operation can then be done by the logistics company.

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3 Research area
The focus of the project was designed as follows.
The unit of analysis is firstly the transportation and logistics industry.
The area studied is the physical distribution along the supply chain and the supporting information flow.
The project covers both business-to-business and business-to-consumer e-commerce, but with a focus on
business-to-consumer.
Both e-commerce in general and its logistics consequences will be covered, but with a focus on logistics
consequences of e-commerce. Logistics consequences implies studying the demands on logistics for
achieving profitable e-commerce in terms of logistics costs and delivery service, and the possibilities for
change and/or improved logistics operations.
The logistics focus is on the logistics platform in terms of design and management of the physical
distribution structure in the supply chain: the different actors, such as producers, retailers, wholesalers,
truckers, forwarders, customers, etc. The supporting information flow is also included.
3.1 Research questions
This research project ha its basic foundation build in a number of questions. This were developed and further
analysed within a number of cases in cooperation with the industry (Hultkrantz and Lumsden, 2000, Erlandsson
and Linden, 1999, Freij and Rosengren, 1999)
This questions and possible development are as follows:
1. What modes of distribution are interesting and what volumes and resources will be needed in order to
rationalize this commerce? How to organize and coordinate with existing flows while waiting for sufficient
volumes to motivate new, separate systems?
Presumably the e-commerce must be of a certain extent within the distribution chain to be effective. The
resources meant to be part of the system must also be adapted to enable the organizing of extensive
distribution routes. There will, for instance, be a demand for vehicles which can distribute cold or frozen
food together with packages to refrigerating mail boxes in residential areas, i.e. carry out deliveries when
the customer is not at home and thereby decrease the resource utilization.
2. Will there be a demand for extended cooperation between different actors vertically as well as horizontally?
How will this coordination be achieved? Is there a demand for incentive and control?
Taking full advantage of the potential offered by e-commerce will require that the actors in the supply chain
cooperate to adjust the different subsystems in the chain. This applies to a vertical (along the refinement
process) as well as a horizontal (between distribution spots near the customers) way. If, for instance, all
shops were to send their own delivery vans for home distribution, the environmental gain would be negligible
as compared to the customer taking his/her own car to the shop.
3. What role will different information systems play in these new, alternative logistics systems?
Since the number of end customers (addresses) will increase considerably, this will necessitate efficient
goods control, which in turn requires refined information systems for planning as well as execution and
follow-up. Besides, the systems will be of vital importance when it comes to creating and maintaining
customer relations.
4. How will the increased cost downstreambe compensated with lower costs upstream?
Since the last link in the distribution chain from shop to end customer (downstream) in normal systems does
not affect the product, as the alternative cost (for the individual) is often considered low, the new logistics
systems for e-commerce will experience a cost increase here. This rise will then require compensation in the
form of lower product costs (upstream) towards the customer to make him/her, from a cost independence
perspective, choose home distribution
5. How will the time differentiation be affected by the prospect of alternative distribution solutions?
Owing to the fact that the ordering via Internet and the deliveries may vary in time, different solutions for
distribution can be efficiently. This, of course, enables new forms of price differentiation.

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6. How will the distribution be allocated to a 24-hour period and how will this affect resource utilization?
The great number of new addresses (end customers) will be an individual with other requests for delivery
times, e.g. evenings and weekends, beyond what is normal in company relations. This might, in many cases,
lead to improved resource utilization with larger distribution coverage of rural areas. The environmental
impact under such circumstances must be carefully analysed.
3.2 The supply chain flows
"The supply chain is the network of organizations that are involved, through upstream and downstream linkages,
in the different processes and activities that produce value in the form of products and services in the hands of
the ultimate consumers." (Christopher, 1992)
Food
processing
Agriculture Wholesaler Supermarket Consumer
Physical flow
Data flow

Figure 3. An example of a supply chain.
The above figure indicates two important flows that we would like to emphasize the data flow and the
physical flow. E-commerce will impact all elements in the supply chain, which rely on data flow to improve
efficiency. Still, physical transportation is needed for most products, implying the usefulness of deriving e-
commerce demands on logistics by analysing the logistics customers. Demands on a smooth integration of these
flows will increase in the future, from being a competitive advantage to a necessity. In internal logistics, within a
plant, fixed installation or permanent information connections often provide physical links between the sender
and the receiver, whereas in external logistics (between companies in the chain) there are only virtual links
between the nodes (Tilanus, 1997). Maintaining the relation between the information system and the physical
goods can sometimes be difficult. The shipment may be forwarded by various modalities and different
companies, consolidated with larger shipments or broken down into smaller ones. The information is often sent
by a number of different means mail, phone, fax, EDI or physically attached to the shipment. Since global
trade is increasing, the physical flows will probably become even more complex in the future. This will increase
not only the importance of the logistics service provider as an integrator between players in the chain, but also
the demand on his or her role as a coordinator of information flow and physical flow.
EDI has been available to business since the 1980s as an international standard for data communications.
However, to set up corporate networks and establish electronic ties with trade partners using the EDI standard
requires costly private data networks and customized software, which makes EDI available only to an elite group
of big companies. Therefore, EDI could not satisfy mass demand for integrated information systems, as it is too
expensive and too rigid in structure. EDI has remained the province of large companies and their captive
suppliers, used only by a small percentage of companies, e.g. 5% in the USA (Lohr, 1997).
4 Distribution development within e-commerce
4.1 Conventional distribution
In conventional international distribution, goods pass through several nodes, or stops, before reaching the
customer, see Figure 4. After production, and possibly storage at the factory, the goods are delivered to the
distribution center (DC). Here they are stored, consolidated and reloaded, and then sent on to the next stop, the
local DC. The goods are handled in the same way as at the national DC, and are thereafter sent on to the retailer,
where they are sold to the customer. Since most of the time that goods spend at nodes does not add value, the
more nodes there are in a distribution channel the less efficient it generally is (Lumsden, 1998).

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Producer Distribution centers - DC Retailer Customer
National Local
Customer Order Point (COP)
Customer
Figure 4. Conventional distribution structure.
The point where the goods change from being delivered to stock to being delivered to order is called the
customer order point (COP). In conventional distribution, the COP is at the retailer, where the customers order
and buy the products. This is called a push system since the company predicts the demand and the goods are
pushed through the distribution channel (Coyle et al., 1996).
With e-commerce there are several possibilities for new ways of distributing goods, and presumably there will be
different ways of distribution for different types of goods. Time will be of great importance when deciding on
what type of distribution model to use. The faster and more direct flow of information on the Internet will make
it possible to skip one or more nodes in the distribution channel and thereby increase delivery speed. For
example, in the future products might be delivered to the customer directly from the producer or from a national
distribution warehouse. One likely scenario is that customers will have the possibility to choose how quickly
they want their products delivered. The more the customers are willing to pay, the faster they can receive their
products, and the distribution models will then be different according to the lead time allowed.
4.2 Distribution structures for Internet buying
Along with the entry and expansion of e-commerce, it will be possible and necessary to make large changes in
companies distribution processes. This is because the COP will be moved upstream in the distribution channel,
in some cases all the way up to the producing company. Consequently, the distribution process can be simplified
to consist only of direct distribution from the producing company to the customer.
Customer
"Conventional distribution"
"Mailman" "Postal service"
"Local distribution"
"National distribution" (eg BTL)
"Integrator" (eg DHL)
=Customer Distribution
Customer Distribution expanding
Upstream and Downstream
Reduction in
Time To Customer (TTC)
Figure 5. Distribution processes for Internet buying.
Several different distribution channels can be seen as possible future solutions, see Figure 5. The base alternative
is the conventional distribution, which is described earlier in the section about conventional distribution. An
example from the food industry could be that the food producer is located in France, from where the groceries
are shipped in full truckloads or trains to a national distribution center (DC) located somewhere in southern
Sweden or in Denmark, e.g. Dancargos national warehouse at Arendal, Denmark. In the DC the groceries are
stored, reloaded and consolidated with other products and later shipped on to a local DC in full truckloads. This
DC can for example be ICA Vst, located in Kunglv, Sweden. At ICA Vst the goods are again stored, reloaded
and consolidated and from here transported to the retailer ICA Maxi by either full truckloads or less than full
truckloads. Customers then purchase the groceries at ICA Maxi.

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4.3 Distribution Channels
The first alternative for a simpler distribution system for e-commerce products is to remove the retailer and
distribute goods directly from local warehouses to customer. This is called home delivery, and an example of this
situation could be the purchasing of tulips over the Internet. The tulips are grown in the Netherlands and are
shipped to a national DC in Sweden in refrigerated trucks, since the goods are perishable. In this warehouse the
tulips are consolidated into smaller consignments and then transported to the retailers, for example an Interflora
store. The customer now places an order at the Interflora store over the Internet, and the florist arranges the
bouquet. The flowers are then distributed to the customers, either in Interfloras own vehicles or in a couriers
van.
Another possible alternative is to remove the local warehouse from the distribution channel and use the postal
service to distribute the goods from the national warehouse to the customer. This is called mail-order shopping
and works as follows. Using an example from the clothing trade, clothes are manufactured in Asia and
transported to a national DC in Bors in Sweden. The customer places an order over the Internet to the mail-
order company, and the clothes are packed in parcels. These parcels are then distributed to the local post office
by the national postal service, and are finally delivered to the customer by the mailman.
A third alternative is to distribute goods from the national distribution centers to the customers. A good example
here is Tamros distribution of incontinence protection articles for elderly people. The products are produced in
Germany and transported to Tamros national DC in Bckebol, Gteborg. There they are stored and packed, and
finally distributed directly to the customers by Schenker-BTL.
The last alternative is to have direct distribution from the producing company to the final customer. This could,
for example, be the distribution of tailor-made clothes by the company Tailoronline. The customers state their
measurements and place an order over the Internet. The order is then sent to the factory in Estonia where the
garments are produced and packed in parcels. The finished products are distributed to the customer by mail.
Another example is Bokus.coms selling and distribution of books, which go directly from the printing house to
the customer. Amazon.com is also a well-known company selling books via the Internet. They started their
business with distribution directly from the printing house, but have had to switch logistics strategy to one in
which they have to build warehouses in order to support the demand for shorter delivery time from the customers
in the US (Hultn, 1999).
4.4 Upstream and downstream consequences
There is little doubt that e-commerce will necessitate changes in the way products are distributed from
manufacturer to customer. What these changes will be is uncertain, but it is possible to distinguish the changes in
upstream and downstream consequences, Figure 6. Consequences are said to be upstream when they concern
changes in the distribution channel from the customer to the producer. The only thing that is sent in that direction
is information, and upstream consequences therefore mainly arise from changes in the flow of information.
The main upstream consequence is that the customer order point (COP) will be moved upstream towards the
producer, and the system will therefore change toward a pull strategy. This will demand a more efficient
information system, but will lead to reduced inventory levels and thereby reduced capital tie-up (Lumsden,
1998).
Producer Distribution centers DC Retailer Customer
National Local
COP COP COP COP
Any solution
"Upstream"
Downstream
Figure 6. Upstream and downstream consequences for Internet buying.

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The consequences that are said to be downstream are those that concern the actual distribution of the products to
the customers. The most clearly foreseeable outcome from widespread commerce over the Internet is that
consignment sizes will be reduced. The reason for this is that the distribution channels will stretch all the way to
the final customer, and since private consumers do not need the same volumes as for example a retailer, the sizes
will be smaller. Since the total consumption in society will remain the same, or probably even increase, the
number of consignments and the number of delivery addresses will increase, and this in turn will lead to more
complex distribution systems and more assignments for transportation and logistics companies (Lumsden, 1998).
4.5 Delivery parameters
Point of delivery
It is very interesting to know whether the customers have the same attitudes and expectations as the producers
and distributors.
The results from the diagrams in Figure 7 below show that the drop- off point is still not a fully accepted
alternative. More than 60% are willing to pick up products at a post office, while no more than 30% are willing
to do so at a drop-off point. This is interesting, since there is basically no difference between the two
alternatives; the post office is in fact a drop-off point for Postens customers. This is a clear advantage for Posten
On Line Center and a severe disadvantage for other distributors. For example, Privpak has been delivering mail-
order products to drop-off points for a long time, but still there is resistance to this alternative.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Drop off point Post office Home Work place
Yes
No
Maybe
Figure 7. Attitudes toward delivery to drop off points, post, home and workplace.
As could be expected, most consumers want their products delivered to their homes; 89% stated that this was a
good alternative. The respondents are in other words prioritising the comfort of receiving the goods at their door
higher than the freedom of picking the goods up whenever they want. The alternative of delivering to workplaces
got a very mixed result. Over 50% stated that they would like to have their products delivered to their workplace,
while over 30% said that they would not. From this we can conclude that this alternative has the potential of
being a good way of delivering e-commerce goods, but that it needs to be more thoroughly investigated.
Time of delivery
The time when people want their products to be delivered is an issue that has not changed particularly much
between our study and Bergendahl & Magnussons (1998); the most popular time window is still weekdays
between 6pm and 8pm. The results in Figure 8 show that most people are prepared to commit themselves to
being home for a couple of hours during a weekday to receive their products.

E-commerce and Consequences for page 11 Hultkrantz and Lumsden
the Logistics Industry
Time of delivery
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
W
e
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2
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S
a
t
u
r
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a
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a
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Figure 8. When people want their products delivered.
5 Changing distribution systems
Several different conditions affect the creation and alteration of a distribution network. There are the ideological,
political or strategic aspects. There are the abstract network components such as information flow. There are the
physical network components such as mobile resources, and there is the physical network, or infrastructure.
When implementing changes in physical distribution, which will probably be necessary to maximize the benefits
of e-commerce, the time for changing the different aspects mentioned above will vary. The ideological changes
are fairly quick and easy to implement; these are often a politicians words and, as we all know, those can often
change from day to day. Changes in the infrastructure, on the other hand, take a lot of time and cost a lot of
money (Figure 9). This figure also shows that making changes in information systems, which is in a way what e-
commerce is all about, is a fairly quick process. Since new types of infrastructure will probably be necessary to
fully utilize the benefits created from e-commerce, it is a rather safe assumption that it will take some time
before we will see the whole potential of e-commerce. The complexities and differences in these changes are
some of the factors that make it interesting and important to investigate how different actors will reshape their
networks to adapt to the new demands of e-commerce.
Impl ementation
t ime
Magnit ude of change
(DD)
Ideological
(Political network
concepts)
Information
(Abstract network components)
Mobile resources
(Physical network components)
Infrastructure
(Physical network)
Actors
(Human Resource network components)
Figure 9. Logistics systems changeability.

E-commerce and Consequences for page 12 Hultkrantz and Lumsden
the Logistics Industry
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