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Probability 1

This document discusses probability and its definitions. It defines objective probability as being based on symmetry, like with dice, and subjective probability as involving personal judgment. It provides examples of objective probabilities using games of chance and consumer surveys. It also defines key probability terms like events, the sample space, and intersections and unions of events. Finally, it outlines some basic rules for probability calculations, including that probabilities must fall between 0 and 1, the rule of complements, the rule of unions, and a special rule for mutually exclusive events where the probability of the union is the sum of the individual probabilities.

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Kailash Singh
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38 views14 pages

Probability 1

This document discusses probability and its definitions. It defines objective probability as being based on symmetry, like with dice, and subjective probability as involving personal judgment. It provides examples of objective probabilities using games of chance and consumer surveys. It also defines key probability terms like events, the sample space, and intersections and unions of events. Finally, it outlines some basic rules for probability calculations, including that probabilities must fall between 0 and 1, the rule of complements, the rule of unions, and a special rule for mutually exclusive events where the probability of the union is the sum of the individual probabilities.

Uploaded by

Kailash Singh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Probability

Dr.Srilakshminarayana.G
A probability is a quantitative measure of uncertaintya
number that conveys the strength of our belief in the
occurrence of an uncertain event.
Objective Probability
Objective probability is probability based on symmetry of games of chance
or similar situations. It is also called classical probability.
This probability is based on the idea that certain occurrences are equally
likely (the term equally likely is intuitively clear and will be used as a
starting point for our definitions): The numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 on a fair
die are each equally likely to occur.
Another type of objective probability is long-term relative-frequency
probability. If, in the long run, 20 out of 1,000 consumers given a taste test
for a new soup like the taste, then we say that the probability that a given
consumer will like the soup is 20/1000=0.02.
If the probability that a head will appear on any one toss of a coin is 1/2,
then if the coin is tossed a large number of times, the proportion of heads
will approach 1/2. Like the probability in games of chance and other
symmetric situations, relative-frequency probability is objective in the
sense that no personal judgment is involved.
Subjective Probability
Subjective probability, on the other hand, involves personal
judgment, information, intuition, and other subjective
evaluation criteria.
One persons subjective probability may very well be different
from another persons subjective probability of the same event.
Basic Definitions: Events, Sample Space, and Probabilities
A set is a collection of elements.
The empty set is the set containing no elements. It is denoted by .
The universal set is the set containing every thing in a given context.
We denote the universal set by S.
The complement of set A is the set containing all the elements in the
universal set S that are not members of set A.
The intersection of A and B, is the set containing all elements that are
members of both Aand B.
The union of A and B, is the set containing all elements that are
members of either Aor B or both.
An experiment is a process that leads to one of several possible
outcomes.
An outcome of an experiment is some observation or measurement.
The sample space is the universal set S pertinent to a given
experiment.
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
An event is a subset of a sample space. It is a set of basic outcomes.
We say that the event occurs if the experiment gives rise to a basic
outcome belonging to the event.
Basic Rules for Probability
Probability is a measure of uncertainty. The probability of event A is a
numerical measure of the likelihood of the events occurring.
The Range of Values
Probability obeys certain rules. The first rule sets the range of values
that the probability measure may take.
The Rule of Complements
Our second rule for probability defines the probability of the
complement of an event in terms of the probability of the original event.
The Rule of Unions.
We now state a very important rule, the rule of unions. The rule of
unions allows us to write the probability of the union of two events in
terms of the probabilities of the two events and the probability of their
intersection:
Mutually Exclusive Events
When the sets corresponding to two events are disjoint (i.e., have no
intersection), the two events are called mutually exclusive.
For mutually exclusive events, the probability of the intersection of the
events is zero. This is so because the intersection of the events is the
empty set, and we know that the probability of the empty set is zero.
This fact gives us a special rule for unions of mutually exclusive events.
Since the probability of the intersection of the two events is zero, there
is no need to subtract P(A union B) when the probability of the union of
the two events is computed. Therefore,
Problems

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