Exploration Analysis

Chairman: Professor B. W. MACKENZIE

Rapporteur: Professor D. A. PRETORIUS
Papers:
Optimum spacing for soi l sample traverses by W. A. Hodgson
Evaluation of geochemical data by C. J. Lenz
Research in oil exploration by J . W. Harbaugh and A. Prelat
A drill hole data bank by M. R. Anderton
Ore reserve estimation and depletion planning for a beach diamond deposit by M. M.
Oosterveld
rn opening the session, tbe Olainna.u indicated that the papers
and discossioJ'ls would revolve about qualltil8t.ive Illethods of
analysis and optimization of various of exploration
planning. The five papers would cover a wide cange of topics
within a genersl theme of explorati on analysis, and it would
be appropriate, therefore, to present the papers asreprcscnting
a sequential information-gathering process, namely, (i) geo-
logicw, geocbemical and geophysical types of surveying for
the location and identification of anomalous zones, (ii)
ching and drilling of the anomal ous zones found, and
(ill) further refinement of the data for ore resen-e calculations
and production planning.
The first paper. which was presented by Or W. A. Hodgsoo,
dealt wit h the optimum spacing between soil sample travecses
conducted during goochemical prospecting. The theme of the
paper was that the critical sampling interval should be based
on the concept of element continuity, and that this interval
could be determined by means of a correiogram. Ensuing
discussion concerned the probability of the method, designed
for areas where dispersion was high, working in localities
where dispersion was either low or virtually non-existent. In
the latter cases, specific orientation surveys for varying
topograpllic, climatic and geological conditions would
possi bly be more useful than the preparation of correlograms.
A further suggestion was made t hat cost versus risk should be
taken ioto consideration when deciding upoo the spacing
between traverses. A balance could be struck. by mathematical
opt imi ZAtion. If the exploration budget was fi xed, then the
variance of risk could be minimized.
The second paper was a short contribution by Mr C. J.
Lenz. plotting and evaluation of geochemical
prospecting results were carried out because the low cost of
analysis in Rhodesia permitted very large volumes of data to
be accumulated in mass-coverage operations. Anomalous
areas were demarcated within different environments by
selecting probability or population boundary values from
frequency distributions. I n the short discussion which took
place it was debated whether the metJuxl sbould be used only
in the early high-risk stages of goocbemica1 exploration aDd
the introduction of geological bias could influence
the actual restlllS of an exploration program.
Professor J. W. Harbaugh then delivered a paper on an
aspect of research in oil exploration decision-making:
estimation of wildcat well outcome probabilities. Petroleum
geologists were generally reluctant to give outcome proba-
bilities. A hindsight approach was normally employed, but,
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it advocated in the paper, a foresight approach should be
considered in slepping through the past, bearing in mind that
the main use of geological data lay in improvillg t he estimate
of probabilities. The paper described a pi lot study conducted
in central Kansas, involving 6000 holes drilled in an area
of 24 X 24 miles. The results were looked at in five-year steps
from 1935 onwards. Frequency distributions were obtained
that involved interpret ations and post-drilling
outcomes. With time, the discovery frequencies changed
steadily and the probabilities became stable and, therefore,
usable as predictors. Discussion of lbe paper included the
possibility of preparing a time series of probabilities and the
possib)e nature of the foUow-up to the pilot study. The
follow-up could be only hypothet ical because the area bad
bccll driUed out. HO\Vever, the probability frequencies could
be transferred to adjacent areas at earlier stages in their
history.
The fourth paper, by Mr M. R. Anderton, dealt with the
design of a drill hole data bank. The points emphasized were
input coding, storage of the code, aIld rotrieval of information.
The development of a comprehensive drillhole data bank for
geological information, using the coding method described,
generalized storage methods, standardized retrieval language
based on the input code and automated di splay systems could
provide exploration geologists with a po .... -erful tool. The paper
put forward the proposition that there was a need for a
language developed specifically for geologisls and t hat a
general data-banking system based upon a comprehensive
code was a move in this direction. Several delegates wanted to
know whether the data bank described was already in use.
Input coding was being used, but the storage and retrieval
components were not yet usable. The program could recover
at present, but not unambiguously. Questioners asked whether
the geological information was gathered in the field in a form
suitable for putting on magnetic tape. The geologist employed
a coded sheet in the core.-yard, but much of the information
recorded was highly qualitative.
In the final paper of the session, Mr M. M. OostcrveJd
dealt with ore reserve estimat ion with depletion planni ng for a
beach diamond deposit. Geological and sampling informati.on
from a pa1eomarine environment had been digitized and
stored in magnetic files. For the evaluation of the deposits,
it was necessary to estimate both the diamond content and the
size frequency of the diamonds occurring in it. The three most
important characteristics needed for the evaluation were the
size frequency of the diamonds, the number of diamonds per
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unit area, and the price structure of the diamonds. The method
described of al1cul ating stat isticall y more accurate ore blocks,
combined with a Linear programming technique for production
planning, had greatly facilit ated the more efficient control of
mining production. Questi ons tbat were asked subsequenUy
deah witb di fferences between diamonds coming from aUuvial
deposits and from kimberlite pipes, but DO answers could be
provided since such information was c.lassified.
In closing the session, the Chairman said that mining
companies were being conf Ton led with increasingly competitive
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forces, among which were lhe depletion of high-grade mineral
deposits a)ld the fact that oil companies had entered the
sphere of metal mining. The long-ternl survival of mining
companies in this environmcnt was ver y much dependent on
the success of cxploration \'('ntnre5. This required the most
effective tlti Hulion of exploration capital a nd skills. The
papers that had been presented during the session indicated
IheconsidembJe progress that had been made in lheapplication
of quantitative dedsion making to exploration analysis.
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