Quantitative Methods for International Politics

IPOL 320: Spring 2013

Sunday and Tuesday, 2:55-4:10 PM; Lectures in Room 0A13; STATA Labs in 1B09
________________________________________________________________________

Instructor: Steven Ward
Office: 0D56
Office Hours: Monday and Wednesday, 3:00 PM 5:00 PM or by appointment
Phone: +974-4457-8547
Email: [email protected]
Email is the fastest and easiest way to contact me. I will respond to
your email within 24 hours on weekdays or within 48 hours on
weekends.

Course Description: This course is meant to introduce students to the problems,
methods, and processes associated with conducting and interpreting quantitative research
on questions related to international politics. These are valuable skills to acquire for a
number of reasons. First, becoming statistically literate (or numerate) will make you a
more discerning consumer of research that involves quantitative analysis. This is not only
important for reading journal articles and academic books, but also for understanding and
critiquing the use of data by bloggers, journalists, political operatives, and pollsters.
Second, if you plan to go on to graduate school, you will likely have to take other, more
advanced statistics courses, and the basic understanding you will acquire by successfully
completing this course will prove invaluable. Third, even if graduate school is not in your
future, becoming competent at data analysis will make you much more competitive in an
increasingly harsh (and increasingly data-oriented) job market a year from now.
The course begins with a brief introduction to the problem of empirically assessing
theories. We then discuss the quantitative measurement and description of variables, and
begin to think about making very simple comparisons. We then ask whether the
differences we measure are statistically significant that is, are they real, or are they the
result of randomness associated with the process of measurement and sampling? The
course concludes with an introduction to the quantitative analysts most important tool:
regression. The focus in this part of the course will be on the most simple form of
regression analysis (ordinary least squares regression), but the course will also briefly
introduce students to logistic regression, an increasingly important means of assessing
claims in which the dependent variable can only take on two values.
This course involves a great deal of relatively simple arithmetic (dont be fooled by the
ugly formulas if you can add, subtract, multiply, and divide, you will be fine), but it
also involves an introduction to STATA, a very powerful computer program which will
allow you to conduct statistical analysis quickly and easily, and present the results
effectively. After the first week of class, every other session will be devoted to learning
to use the methods introduced in the previous (theoretical and conceptual) session using
STATA. Students will also produce two hypothesis-testing papers making use of
STATA.
Readings: Students should come to class having completed reading assignments and
prepared to participate. Readings must be completed by the date listed on the syllabus.
Required Texts:

W. Phillips Shively, The Craft of Political Research, 9
th
Edition (Boston: Pearson, 2013)

Philip H. Pollock III, The Essentials of Political Analysis, 4
th
Edition (Washington, DC:
CQ Press, 2012)

Philip H. Pollock III, A STATA Companion to Political Analysis, 2
nd
Edition
(Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2011)

Grading and Assignments: Grades will be based on the following components:

1) Participation (5%): You are expected to attend all class meetings having
completed reading assignments, and participate actively. The material in this
course can be dense, confusing, and, yes, boring at times. The more actively you
engage with it, the more enjoyable and valuable the course will be.

2) Quizzes (10%): There will be four quizzes administered throughout the course of
the semester. Quizzes will be both conceptual and mathematical, and test your
ability to conduct and interpret statistical analysis.

3) Problem Sets (10%) There will be four problem sets distributed throughout the
course of the semester. Problem sets will require you to conduct and interpret
statistical analysis in preparation for quizzes.

4) Controlled comparison paper (25%): You will produce a paper in which you
propose and test a hypothesis about the relationship between two variables. This
paper will require that you use STATA, and that you hold only one other variable
constant. It will not require you to use regression analysis.

5) Regression paper (25%): You will produce a paper in which you propose and test
hypotheses about the relationship between two variables. This paper will require
that you use STATA, and that you hold at least three other variables constant. It
will require you to use regression analysis.

6) Final Exam (25%) A final examination will be administered during the
examination period. The final exam will not test your ability to use the STATA
software package.

Grading Scale: Scores will be rounded to the nearest full percentage point and converted
to letter grades according to the following scale:

A = 93-100
A- = 90-92
B+ = 87-89
B = 83-86
B- = 80-82
C+ = 77-79
C = 73-76
C- = 70-72
D = 60-69
F = 0-59

Class Policies:

1) Classroom etiquette:

a. Students must arrive to class and be in their seats by 2:55 PM. If you are
late, you are absent.
b. Laptops and cellphones are strictly prohibited. If I see a cellphone or a
laptop, I will take it and sell it on ebay.
c. Extracurricular discussion during lecture is rude, distracting, and therefore
strictly prohibited. If you have a question, raise your hand and ask me. If I
see you holding a conversation with another student in class, I will give
you a warning. On the second offense, I will ask you to leave the
classroom and will mark you absent.

2) Written Assignments: All written assignments must be turned in at the beginning
of class on the due date. Written assignments must be word-processed and
double-spaced, using 12-point Times New Roman font. You must cite outside
work when appropriate. You may use any citation style as long as you use it
correctly and consistently.

3) Late Work: Late work will be penalized by one full letter grade each day.

4) Absences: You are expected to attend all class meetings. Absences may be
excused only with the approval of your academic dean. Unexcused absences will
strongly negatively impact your participation grade. More than two absences
excused or unexcused will result in a participation grade of zero for the course.
More than three absences excused or unexcused will result in a failing grade
for the course.

Course Outline

Sunday, January 13: Introduction to the Course

No reading

Tuesday, January 15: Theories and hypotheses

Shively, ch. 1, 2, and 6

Pollock, Introduction

Sunday, January 20: Conceptualization and operationalization

Shively, ch. 3 and 4

Pollock, ch. 1

Tuesday, January 22: Measuring and describing variation

Shively, ch. 5

Pollock, ch. 2

Sunday, January 27: Introduction to STATA (1B09)

STATA Companion, ch. 1 and 2

Tuesday, January 29: Making comparisons

Pollock, ch. 3

Sunday, February 3: STATA Lab (1B09)

STATA Companion, ch. 4

Tuesday, February 5: Making controlled comparisons

Pollock, ch. 4 and 5

Sunday, February 10: STATA Lab (1B09)

STATA Companion, ch. 5

Sunday, February 17: Sampling distributions and random error

PROBLEM SET#1 DUE

Shively, ch. 7

Pollock, ch. 6

Tuesday, February 19: STATA Lab (1B09)

QUIZ #1

STATA Companion, pp. 121-127

Sunday, February 24: Inference and tests of statistical significance

Pollock, pp. 122-164

Tuesday, February 26: STATA Lab (1B09)

STATA Companion, pp. 127-135

Sunday, March 10: Significance for ordinal and nominal data

Pollock, pp. 164-181

Tuesday, March 12: STATA Lab (1B09)

STATA Companion, ch. 7

Sunday, March 17: Review

PROBLEM SET #2 DUE

No reading

Tuesday, March 19: STATA Lab work on papers (1B09)

QUIZ #2

Sunday, March 24: Correlation and bivariate regression

COMPARISON PAPER DUE

Shively, ch. 8

Pollock, pp. 182-192.

Tuesday, March 26: STATA Lab (1B09)

STATA Companion, pp. 157-162

Thursday, March 28: R-squared and multivariate regression (0A12)

Shively, pp. 141-147

Pollock, pp. 192-196; 199-201

Tuesday, April 9: STATA Lab (1B09)

STATA Companion, pp. 163-173

Thursday, April 11: Interaction and regression with dummy variables (0A12)

PROBLEM SET #3 DUE

Shively, pp. 136-139

Pollock, pp. 196-199; 201-206

Sunday, April 14: STATA Lab (1B09)

QUIZ #3

STATA Companion, ch. 9

Tuesday, April 16: Regression with dichotomous dependent variables

Shively, pp. 139-141

Pollock, ch. 9

Sunday, April 21: STATA Lab (1B09)

STATA Companion, ch. 10

Tuesday, April 23: STATA Lab work on papers (1B09)

PROBLEM SET #4 DUE

Sunday, April 28: Review

QUIZ #4

REGRESSION PAPER DUE

No reading

FINAL EXAM: Wednesday, May 1, 12:30-2:30 PM, Room 0A13