This document provides calculations for downwind concentrations, blast damage, and fireball size from an industrial incident. It calculates concentrations downwind from a release at different distances. For a blast, it estimates the TNT equivalent and damage at various distances. For a fireball, it calculates size, burn rate, radiation intensity, and potential injury distances.
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52 (Consequence Analysis)
This document provides calculations for downwind concentrations, blast damage, and fireball size from an industrial incident. It calculates concentrations downwind from a release at different distances. For a blast, it estimates the TNT equivalent and damage at various distances. For a fireball, it calculates size, burn rate, radiation intensity, and potential injury distances.
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Input Screen input cell
DOWN WIND CONCENTRATION CALCULATIONS
Release Rate 4.183 kg/sec Elevation of Release 33 m Wind Speed 4.5 m / sec atmosphere condition night "day" or "night" Molecular Weight 166 gm/mole VESSEL PHYSICAL EXPLOSION Volume of Vapour Space in Vessel 4 m3 Burst Pressure 1.50E+06 Pa Cp/Cv for gas 1.4 FIRE AND EXPLOSION CONSEQUENCES Fuel Involved: cyclohexane Quantity of Fuel: 1000 lb Heat of Combustion for cyclohexane : 20000 BTU/lb Caution This Spreasheet should not be used for purposes other than CHEE 470 without a complete review of the calculation methods and tables Down Wind Concentrations for Toxic Release or Flammability Calculations per "Chemical Engineering Aug 1998" Instructions: 1. Go to "input" sheet and enter release information 2. In this sheet under the yellow "concentration" column enter desired concentrations for analysis 3. Read Downwind distance fromthis sheet Release Rate 4.183 kg / s from Input Sheet Velocity 4.5 m / s from Input Sheet Molecular Weight 166 gm/mole from Input Sheet Density Air 1205 gm/cu m from Input Sheet Atmospheric Stability night night or day from Input Sheet Release Elevation 33 m from Input Sheet Release Type Continuous Material Buoyancy neutral Ground Type Urban Comment Concentration Calculated Downwind Distance ppm vol mg / m3 ug/m^3 m miles 100 690 6.90E+05 208 0.13 EPRG 3 60 414 4.14E+05 269 0.17 EPRG 2 5 34 3.45E+04 1,125 0.70 3 21 2.07E+04 1,633 1.01 Odour Threshold 0.05 0 3.45E+02 32,442 20.16 0.25 2 1.72E+03 10,020 6.23 Calculation of Energy Release from a Bursting Vessel (Does not include the effects of the gas or liquid burning/exploding) Volume of Vapour Space in Vessel 4 m3 Burst Pressure 1500000 Pa Cp/Cv for gas 1.4 Atmospheric Pressure 1.01E+05 Pa Energy = 8,054,580 Joules Note: 40 to 80% of the energy calculated above is usually converted to Blast Wave Pressure Conversion Efficiency 80% Energy from Blast = 6,443,664 Joules Energy from Blast 6,107 BTU TNT energy 1120 cal/gm 2016 BTU/lb Explosion TNT equivalent 3.0 lb of TNT Damage Caused by The Explosion Distance From Centre of Explosion (ft) Large glass windows which are already under strain are broken 990 Loud Noise. Sonic boom glass failure 743 Typical pressure for glass failure 217 95% probability of no serious damage 120 large and small windows very likely to shatter 80 large and small windows are l00% shattered 312 Minor damage to house structures 62 Partial demolition of houses, made uninhabitable 47 1 psi overpressure Steel frame of clad building slightly distorted 39 Non-reinforced concrete or cinder walls start to shatter 29 Non-reinforced concrete or cinder walls completely shattered 22 Lower limit of serious structural damage 27 Steel frame building distorted and pulled from foundations 22 Rupture of oil storage tanks begins 22 Rupture of oil storage tanks is complete 19 Wooden Utility poles snapped 16 Nearly complete destruction of houses (lower range) 16 Nearly complete destruction of houses (upper range) 13 Loaded trainwagons overturned 13 Loaded train boxcars completely demolished 12 Probable total destruction of buildings 11 Limit of crater lip 3 Lethality (low) 4 Lethality (high) 3 lung damage (low) 6 lung damage (high) 6 ear drum rupture 16 Overpressure at any distance Choose Distance: 500 Overpressure at this Distance: 0.059 Note: 40 to 80% of the energy calculated above is usually converted to Blast Wave Pressure Distance From Centre of Explosion (ft) 1 psi overpressure Fireball Estimate Size and Damage/Injuries Use this sheet to estimate the potential injury from a fireball These Calculations are relevant to a fireball which has not reached detonation Caution This Spreasheet should not be used for purposes other than CHEE 470 without a complete review of the calculation methods and tables ref: - "Industrial Explosion Prevention and Protection"; Frank T. Bodurtha - "Loss Prevention In The Process Industries"; Lees; Vol 2 Fire Ball Size mass of fuel = 454 kg fireball dia = 45 meters Duration of the Fireball duration = 3.5 sec Rate Material is Burned Rate = 131 kg/sec Heat Release Rate Heat of Combustion = 20000 BTU/lb Heat Release Rate = 3.47E+08 BTU/hr Intensity of Thermal Radiation at any point from the fireball centre distance from fireball centre = 100 ft Intensity = 2762 BTU/hr sq ft Fraction of Heat Release Fr = 0.3 Thermal Radiation Effects Per tables 16.83, 16.79 ; Lees Calculated Distance Calculated Distance Dose Dose Along Ground From Fireball Centre ft ft kJ / m2 BTU / sq ft 7 7 838 73.8 21 21 580 51.1 "Loss Prevention in Process Industries" pg 16/184, in the case of BLEVE when more than 35% of the liquid involved in the fire flashes, virtually all the liquid released burns as a fireball. 31 79 125 11.0 105 128 1.6 0.1 26 26 37.5 3.3 30 30 30 2.6 37 37 19 1.7 42 42 15 1.3 These Calculations are relevant to a fireball which has not reached detonation Caution This Spreasheet should not be used for purposes other than CHEE 470 (carried from Input Sheet) Dia=5.8(mass kg)^(1/3) Eqt 16.15.10 ; Lees from Input sheet Eqt 16.15.18; Lees Based on API RP 521 Duration Result Notes sec 1.43 mortality of 99% of people 10 mortality of 50% of people ref: Lees table 16.79 "Loss Prevention in Process Industries" pg 16/184, in the case of BLEVE when more than 35% of the liquid involved in the fire flashes, virtually all the liquid released burns as a fireball. 30 1st degree burns First degree burns are the onset of blisters 1 Continuous Exposure to People Okay 1 Damage caused to process equipment 1 spontaneous ignition of wood 1 cable insulation degrades 1 Ignition of wood First degree burns are the onset of blisters BLAST DAMAGE DUE TO OVERPRESSURE BY VAPOUR CLOUD EXPLOSION Use this sheet in the case of an vapour cloud explosion which has undergone a detonation Caution This Spreasheet should not be used for purposes other than CHEE 470 without a complete review of the calculation methods and tables Explosion Efficiency 2% TNT energy 1120 cal/gm 2016 BTU/lb Explosion TNT equivalent 198.4 lb of TNT Damage Caused by The Explosion Distance From Centre of Explosion (ft) Large glass windows which are already under strain are broken 3989 Loud Noise. Sonic boom glass failure 2995 Typical pressure for glass failure 874 95% probability of no serious damage 485 large and small windows very likely to shatter 322 large and small windows are l00% shattered 1256 Minor damage to house structures 248 Partial demolition of houses, made uninhabitable 191 1 psi overpressure Steel frame of clad building slightly distorted 158 Non-reinforced concrete or cinder walls start to shatter 118 Non-reinforced concrete or cinder walls completely shattered 90 Lower limit of serious structural damage 107 Steel frame building distorted and pulled from foundations 90 Rupture of oil storage tanks begins 90 Rupture of oil storage tanks is complete 75 Wooden Utility poles snapped 66 Nearly complete destruction of houses (lower range) 66 Nearly complete destruction of houses (upper range) 54 Loaded trainwagons overturned 54 Loaded train boxcars completely demolished 47 Probable total destruction of buildings 44 Limit of crater lip 11 Lethality (low) 16 Lethality (high) 13 lung damage (low) 26 lung damage (high) 23 ear drum rupture 66 Overpressure at any distance Choose Distance: 500 ft Overpressure at this Distance: 0.268 psi THIS SHEET IS FOR INTERNAL CALCULATIONS Scaled Distance ft / lb ^ (1/3) Overpressure (psi) ln (distance) ln(psi) 3 1.098612289 70.5 4.255613 4 1.386294361 38 3.637586 5 1.609437912 25 3.218876 10 2.302585093 6 1.791759 20 2.995732274 2 0.693147 33 3.496507561 1 0 81 4.394449155 0.3 -1.20397 200 5.298317367 0.105 -2.25379 300 5.703782475 0.075 -2.59027 650 6.476972363 0.031 -3.47377 =EXP(0.011*LN(D5)^2-2.0765*LN(D5)+6.5166) =EXP(0.077789*LN(D10)^2-1.929189*LN(D10)+5.78107) y = 0.0402x 2 - R = 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -5 0 5 Overpressure (psi) Overpressure (psi) Poly. (Overpressure (psi)) 100
Shock Wave Parameters 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1 10 100
O v e r p r e s s u r e
( p s i )
Scaled Distance ft/lb^1/3 Shock Wave Parameters y = 0.1313x2 - 2.41x + 6.7238 calc psi % error calc distance % err 66.87397 4.20281 -5.14331 3.083782 -2.79274 37.54225 3.625467 -1.20461 3.969897 0.752572 24.3145 3.191073 -2.74201 4.793759 4.124822 6.797391 1.916539 13.28986 10.13445 -1.34453 2.128037 0.7552 6.401831 20.16179 -0.80896 0.986692 -0.0134 -1.33079 32.71063 0.876889 0.288339 -1.24362 -3.88695 83.10095 -2.59377 0.101255 -2.29011 -3.5663 206.0574 -3.02869 0.067406 -2.69701 -10.1248 280.8878 6.370741 0.034541 -3.3656 11.42376 661.6599 -1.79382 =EXP(0.011*LN(D5)^2-2.0765*LN(D5)+6.5166) =EXP(0.077789*LN(D10)^2-1.929189*LN(D10)+5.78107) 0.0402x 2 - 0.726x + 3.4877 R = 0.9997 Overpressure (psi) Poly. (Overpressure (psi)) 1000 Scaled Distance ft/lb^1/3 THIS SHEET IS FOR INTERNAL CALCULATIONS Vapour Vessel Cloud Burst Overpressure Scaled Distance Distance Distance psi ft / lb^(1/3) ft ft 0.03 684 3989 990 0.04 513 2995 743 0.15 150 874 217 0.3 83 485 120 0.5 55 322 80 0.1 215 1256 312 0.7 43 248 62 1 33 191 47 1.3 27 158 39 2 20 118 29 3 15 90 22 2.3 18 107 27 3 15 90 22 3 15 90 22 4 13 75 19 5 11 66 16 5 11 66 16 7 9 54 13 7 9 54 13 9 8 47 12 10 8 44 11 300 2 11 3 690 100 3 16 4 1380 200 2 13 3 207 30 4 26 6 255 37 4 23 6 34 5 11 66 16 Damage Large glass windows which are already under strain are broken Loud Noise. Sonic boom glass failure Typical pressure for glass failure 95% probability of no serious damage large and small windows very likely to shatter large and small windows are l00% shattered Minor damage to house structures Partial demolition of houses, made uninhabitable Steel frame of clad building slightly distorted Non-reinforced concrete or cinder walls start to shatter Non-reinforced concrete or cinder walls completely shattered Lower limit of serious structural damage Steel frame building distorted and pulled from foundations Rupture of oil storage tanks begins Rupture of oil storage tanks is complete Wooden Utility poles snapped Nearly complete destruction of houses (lower range) Nearly complete destruction of houses (upper range) Loaded trainwagons overturned Loaded train boxcars completely demolished Probable total destruction of buildings Limit of crater lip Lethality (low) Bodurtha pg 66 Lethality (high) lung damage (low) lung damage (high) ear drum rupture