Climate Poll Memo

From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling
Subject: Voters wont elect climate denier in 2016, GOP stance hurts with independents
Date: June 3, 2014

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that the carbon emission reduction standards
announced by President Obama yesterday are popular with voters across the country, and
that voters have little tolerance for a Presidential candidate in 2016 who doesnt believe
that climate change is caused by human activity. Crucial independent voters, in
particular, are not sympathetic to the GOPs climate skepticism.
Key findings from the survey include:
-Voters support the 30% reduction standard in carbon pollution from existing power
plants by an 18 point margin, 53/35. Independents (59/29) are particularly strong in their
support for the standards.
-Voters, and particularly independents, dont have much tolerance for climate skeptics
when it comes to the 2016 Presidential race. Only 38% of voters say theyd be willing to
support a candidate who doesnt believe global warming is caused by human activity, and
by an 11 point margin they say they would be less likely to vote for such a candidate.
When it comes to independents just 29% would be open to supporting a climate skeptic.
-This issue could be particularly problematic for Senator Marco Rubio given his recent
comments on it. Voters say by a 56/33 margin that they have more faith in the scientists
than Rubio when it comes to the issue of climate change, and among independents its
57/27. Rubio starts out trailing Hillary Clinton by a 49/42 spread in a hypothetical match
up anyway, and when respondents were informed about Rubios stance on climate
change it pushed Clintons lead up to 9 points at 50/41. Thats a wider margin than
Barack Obama won either of his elections by.
The politics on this issue are pretty clear. Voters believe in man made climate change,
and they support President Obamas new initiative to help deal with it. Republicans risk
putting themselves in an even deeper hole with independent voters by continuing to
express their skepticism, and it has the potential to help cost them yet another Presidential
election in 2016.
PPP surveyed 735 registered voters on June 2nd on behalf of Americans United for
Change. The surveys margin of error is +/-3.6%
Public Policy Polling
2912 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888 621-6988

Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: [email protected]
National Survey Results

Q1
Do you support or oppose requiring existing

power plants to cut carbon pollution by up to
30%?
Q6
Support ........................................................... 53%

Oppose ........................................................... 35%
Scientists ........................................................ 56%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q2
If the candidates for President in 2016 were

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Rubio .............................................................. 33%

Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Q7
Marco Rubio ................................................... 42%

Undecided....................................................... 9%
Q3
Do you believe that global warming is occurring

and being caused by human activity?
Marco Rubio ................................................... 41%
No ................................................................... 39%
Q4
Would you be willing to support a candidate for

President in 2016 who did not believe that
global warming was being caused by human
activity?
Yes.................................................................. 38%
No ................................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%
Q5
If a candidate for President did not believe that

global warming was being caused by human
activity, would that make you more or less
likely to vote for them in 2016, or would it not
make a difference either way?
More likely....................................................... 32%
Less likely ....................................................... 43%
Wouldn't make a difference............................. 22%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%
June 2, 2014
Survey of 735 registered voters
Now that you know Marco Rubio does not

believe that global warming is being caused by
human activity, if the candidates for President
in 2016 were Democrat Hillary Clinton and
Republican Marco Rubio, who would you vote
for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Yes.................................................................. 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%
More than 90% of scientists think global

warming is being caused by human activity.
Marco Rubio thinks global warming is not
caused by human activity. Who do you trust
more on this issue: the scientists or Marco
Rubio?
Undecided....................................................... 9%
Q8
If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ........................................................... 53%
Man................................................................. 47%
Q9
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 38%
Republican...................................................... 37%
Independent / Other........................................ 25%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.

If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic .......................................................... 10%
White .............................................................. 73%
African-American ............................................ 12%
Other............................................................... 5%

Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 12%
30 to 45........................................................... 27%
46 to 65........................................................... 41%
Older than 65 .................................................. 20%
June 2, 2014
Survey of 735 registered voters

Raleigh, NC 27604
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Support/Oppose
Requiring Carbon
Pollution Cuts
Base Wom an
Support 53%
58%
47%
Oppose 35%
27%
44%
Not sure 12%
15%
9%
Hillary Clinton 49%
56%
40%
Marco Rubio 42%
36%
48%
8%
11%
Undecided
9%
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Global Warm ing Occurring/Manm ade?

Yes 53%
60%
46%
No 39%
31%
49%
9%
6%
Not sure
8%
Base Wom an
Base Wom an
Yes 38%
34%
42%
No 46%
48%
44%
Not sure 16%
18%
14%
Gender
Man
Trust Scienctists or
Rubio?
More likely 32%
31%
33%
Less likely 43%
45%
40%
Wouldn't m ake a 22%

difference
20%
26%
5%
2%
survey of 735 registered voters
Base Wom an
Man
More/Less Likely to
Support Candidate
Who Doesn't Believe
in Manm ade Clim ate
Change
Not sure
Man
Willing to Support
Candidate Who
Doesn't Believe in
Manm ade Clim ate
Change?
Gender
June 2, 2014
Man
Clinton/Rubio 1
3%
Scientists 56%
62%
49%
Rubio 33%
27%
40%
Not sure 11%
11%
11%

Raleigh, NC 27604
Party
Gender
Base Wom an
Man
Base Dem ocrat Republican
Clinton/Rubio 2
Hillary Clinton 50%
57%
41%
Marco Rubio 41%
34%
48%
9%
10%
Undecided
9%
Support/Oppose
Requiring Carbon
Pollution Cuts
Support 53%
84%
16%
59%
Oppose 35%
5%
70%
29%
Not sure 12%
11%
14%
12%
Party
Party
Independent
/ Other
Clinton/Rubio 1
Hillary Clinton 49%
92%
8%
43%
Marco Rubio 42%
4%
86%
36%
Undecided
4%
9%
6%
22%
Independent
/ Other

Yes 53%
88%
15%
57%
No 39%
5%
78%
33%
6%
7%
10%
Not sure
8%
Party
Party
Independent
/ Other
Willing to Support
Candidate Who
Doesn't Believe in
Manm ade Clim ate
Change?
Independent
/ Other
More/Less Likely to
Support Candidate
Who Doesn't Believe
Change
Yes 38%
18%
63%
29%
No 46%
70%
22%
Not sure 16%
12%
15%
More likely 32%
13%
56%
25%
46%
Less likely 43%
71%
15%
40%
25%

difference
13%
28%
28%
3%
2%
7%
Not sure
June 2, 2014
Independent
/ Other
3%

Raleigh, NC 27604
Party
Party
Independent
/ Other
Rubio?

Clinton/Rubio 2
Scientists 56%
93%
17%
57%
Rubio 33%
3%
70%
27%
Not sure 11%
5%
14%
17%
Hillary Clinton 50%
93%
8%
45%
Marco Rubio 41%
4%
85%
34%
4%
7%
21%
Undecided
9%
Race
Race
AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

Support/Oppose
Requiring Carbon
Pollution Cuts

Clinton/Rubio 1
Support 53%
45%
54%
55%
42%
Oppose 35%
33%
36%
28%
51%
Not sure 12%
22%
10%
18%
6%
Hillary Clinton 49%
61%
45%
69%
35%
Marco Rubio 42%
35%
46%
29%
30%
4%
9%
2%
35%
Undecided
9%
Race
Race

Yes 53%
48%
53%
66%
38%
No 39%
43%
40%
29%
50%
10%
7%
5%
12%
Not sure
June 2, 2014
Independent
/ Other
8%

Willing to Support
Candidate Who
Doesn't Believe in
Manm ade Clim ate
Change?
Yes 38%
54%
35%
36%
48%
No 46%
41%
46%
53%
33%
Not sure 16%
5%
19%
11%
19%

Raleigh, NC 27604
Race
Race

More/Less Likely to
Support Candidate
Who Doesn't Believe
Change

Rubio?
More likely 32%
49%
29%
30%
38%
Less likely 43%
31%
45%
44%
28%

difference
17%
23%
21%
32%
2%
3%
5%
1%
Not sure
3%
Scientists 56%
60%
54%
70%
36%
Rubio 33%
33%
35%
28%
22%
Not sure 11%
7%
11%
3%
42%
Race
Age

Clinton/Rubio 2
Hillary Clinton 50%
59%
46%
70%
37%
Marco Rubio 41%
34%
44%
28%
38%
7%
10%
3%
25%
Undecided
9%
Base
Support/Oppose
Requiring Carbon
Pollution Cuts
Support 53%
45%
51%
58%
48%
Oppose 35%
44%
38%
32%
34%
Not sure 12%
11%
11%
10%
19%
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Clinton/Rubio 1
Hillary Clinton 49%
49%
48%
51%
45%
Marco Rubio 42%
48%
40%
40%
46%
3%
12%
9%
9%
Undecided
9%
Base
29
45
65 than 65

Yes 53%
48%
52%
58%
50%
No 39%
42%
43%
37%
36%
10%
6%
5%
14%
Not sure
June 2, 2014
29
45
65 than 65
8%

Raleigh, NC 27604
Age
Age
Base
29
45
65 than 65
Base
More/Less Likely to
Support Candidate
Who Doesn't Believe
Change
Willing to Support
Candidate Who
Doesn't Believe in
Manm ade Clim ate
Change?
Yes 38%
62%
37%
34%
30%
More likely 32%
50%
32%
27%
31%
No 46%
35%
46%
48%
47%
Less likely 43%
35%
42%
45%
43%
Not sure 16%
3%
17%
17%
23%

difference
15%
24%
24%
20%
1%
4%
7%
Not sure
3%
Age
Age
Base
29
45
65 than 65
Rubio?
June 2, 2014
29
45
65 than 65
29
45
65 than 65
Clinton/Rubio 2
Scientists 56%
52%
55%
58%
54%
Rubio 33%
45%
33%
30%
34%
Not sure 11%
3%
12%
12%
13%
Base
Hillary Clinton 50%
52%
48%
51%
48%
Marco Rubio 41%
39%
41%
40%
43%
9%
10%
9%
10%
Undecided
9%

Raleigh, NC 27604

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From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling

Date: June 3, 2014

Phone: 888 621-6988

National Survey Results

Do you support or oppose requiring existing

Support ........................................................... 53%

Scientists ........................................................ 56%

Not sure .......................................................... 12%

If the candidates for President in 2016 were

Rubio .............................................................. 33%

Marco Rubio ................................................... 42%

Do you believe that global warming is occurring

Marco Rubio ................................................... 41%

Would you be willing to support a candidate for

If a candidate for President did not believe that

Now that you know Marco Rubio does not

More than 90% of scientists think global

If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Not sure 12%

Hillary Clinton 49%

Marco Rubio 42%

Global Warm ing Occurring/Manm ade?

Not sure 16%

More likely 32%

Less likely 43%

Wouldn't m ake a 22%

survey of 735 registered voters

Not sure 11%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Base Dem ocrat Republican

Marco Rubio 41%

Not sure 12%

Marco Rubio 42%

Base Dem ocrat Republican

Global Warm ing Occurring/Manm ade?

Base Dem ocrat Republican

Not sure 16%

More likely 32%

Less likely 43%

Wouldn't m ake a 22%

survey of 735 registered voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Base Dem ocrat Republican

Base Dem ocrat Republican

Not sure 11%

Hillary Clinton 50%

Marco Rubio 41%

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

Not sure 12%

Hillary Clinton 49%

Marco Rubio 42%

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

survey of 735 registered voters

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other