THE STATE

OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
THE
STATE
OF THE
NATION
TRANSPORT
2013
ABOUT ICE
The Institution of Civil Engineers is a
UK-based international organisation with
approximately 80,000 members ranging
from students to professional civil engineers.
It is an educational and qualifying body
and has charitable status under UK
law. Founded in 1818, ICE has become
recognised worldwide for its excellence as
a centre of learning, as a qualifying body
and as a public voice for the profession.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
ICEs State of the Nation reports have been
compiled each year since 2000 by panels of
experts drawn from across ICEs membership
and beyond. The reports aim to stimulate
debate in society, inuence governments
policies and highlight the actions that we
believe are needed to improve the state of the
nations infrastructure and associated services.
State of the Nation typically focuses on a
specic issue, such as water, capacity and
skills, defending critical infrastructure, low
carbon infrastructure or waste resource
management. In June 2010 we also issued an
overall assessment of UK infrastructure and
will do so again in 2014. Previous reports are
available at ice.org.uk/stateofthenation.
This report has been compiled using a
rigorous process, with a wide range of
expert contributors providing verbal and
written evidence. An extensive programme
of engagement with policy and political
stakeholders was also pursued to ensure
that the report was relevant to its intended
audience. We developed our arguments in
the context of several areas of interest and
activity, including Westminster governments
ongoing interest in a national transport
strategy, reform of the strategic roads
network and devolution of power to cities
and locally-based bodies. The report also
drew on ICEs continuing work on high
speed rail and UK aviation capacity.
THE STATE OF THE NATION:
TRANSPORT
CONTENTS
PRESIDENTS FOREWORD 03
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND
RECOMMENDATIONS 04-05
1. BACKGROUND: UK
TRANSPORT TODAY 06-09
2. IMMEDIATE ACTIONS TO IMPROVE
TRANSPORTS CONTRIBUTION TO
GROWTH AND QUALITY OF LIFE 10-11
3. MORE EFFECTIVE POLICY MAKING
AND DELIVERY TO 2020 12-15
4. SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIES 16-19
5. IMPROVING CAPABILITY
FOR DECISION MAKING IN
THE LONG-TERM 20-21
SUMMARY OF
RECOMMENDATIONS 22-23
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 23
STATE OF THE NATION: TRANSPORT STEERING GROUP: Steven Hayter (Chair), GHD; Chris Chalk, Mott MacDonald; Iain Docherty, University of Glasgow; Alan Hayes, EC
Harris; Keith Jones, ICE; John Pelton, CH2M Hill; Howard Potter, Transport Planning International Ltd
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
Transport is an
issue which is
always high on the
national agenda.
Despite the UKs
ongoing economic
challenges, the
tangible benets
that transport
infrastructure
bring to our economy, and its power to
transform peoples lives, are well established.
As a result, all political parties now recognise
the full value of this infrastructure. For example,
an improved road or new railway line not
only creates new jobs and gives a short term
boost to the economy, but such investment
helps British industry for decades to come.
However, political disagreements over
aviation capacity, roads policy and large
infrastructure projects such as HS2 mean that
despite the publication of the Westminster
governments National Infrastructure
Plan in 2010 and its counterparts in the
devolved countries, substantial progress on
improving the UKs increasingly creaking
transport infrastructure remains slow.
Investors still lack certainty and stability.
In order to tackle the challenges of today
and better equip us to deal with those that
lie ahead, this report argues that a more
strategic approach to transport infrastructure
is required by government, especially in
England. ICE outlines the immediate action
needed to improve transports contribution
now; makes the case for clear national
transport strategy across the UK and for its
independent oversight; argues for the extension
of devolution of power from the national
level; and in the long-term, recommends
the creation of a Transport Futures Board.
Under our Royal Charter, ICE has a duty
to provide independent, expert advice on
engineering and infrastructure issues to
politicians, industry and wider society. It is our
sense of service as a public benet charity that
drives us to produce our annual State of the
Nation reports. As a result I am proud that ICE is
seen as the authoritative voice of infrastructure.
I would like to thank all of those who
contributed evidence to this report. ICE
now invites governments, opposition
parties and industry to join me in debating
how best we can take action on the
recommendations put forward.
02+03
WELCOME TO THE STATE
OF THE NATION REPORT
ON TRANSPORT
PROFESSOR BARRY CLARKE, PRESIDENT
INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
As President of the ICE, I am delighted to introduce our agship State of the
Nation report, which this year focuses on transport.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Transport is an essential
part of our everyday lives.
It enables access to work
and business, education,
health services, and social
interaction. The UKs
prosperity and wellbeing
are inextricably linked to
transport.
Decades of increasing population and prosperity
have exerted growing pressure on our transport
systems. Recent economic weakness has
tempered growth in demand, but congestion
remains a problem which may worsen with
economic recovery. Credible estimates suggest
that, within a generation, congestion could cost
the UK economy tens of billions in lost output
each year.
Transports dependence on fossil fuels
also underpins a long-term trend for rising
greenhouse gas emissions, while local pollutants
contribute to serious health problems.
Government policy closely affects every aspect
of our travel behaviour from the condition
of our roads to the price of our tickets. Yet
strategic vision and objectives are often unclear,
particularly in England. In the ve years since ICEs
last State of the Nation: Transport report, much
has changed politcally. However, many of the
most important issues for transport and transport
policy are yet to be to be properly tackled.
The need to address the lack of strategic vision
was one of the strongest messages emerging
from ICEs research and engagement. This
report provides recommendations to rectify that
weakness in three chronological stages. Across
these, we believe that three recommendations
stand out as being most important.
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
04+05
THE STATE OF THE NATION:
ICES MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS
ENSURE CLEAR NATIONAL
TRANSPORT STRATEGIES FOR
ALL PARTS OF THE UK

Devolved administrations have shown
how clear strategic thinking can help
provide long-term clarity for investment
and outcomes. Yet England, outside
London, lacks such direction. ICE urges:
n Development of a national transport
strategy for England, complementing
up-to-date documents for the devolved
nations
n Creation of an Independent Infrastructure
Commission to inform initially English
strategy development
n Translation of Governments broad
objectives into a performance specication
which identies what is expected from our
transport systems
n Create a Transport Futures Board, ideally
sitting within an Independent Infrastructure
Commission to explore emerging,
sensitive and complex issues, starting
with how we pay for travel
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
IMPROVE ROAD CONDITIONS,
PLANNING AND FUNDING

Governments must move urgently
to improve the performance of our
economically-vital roads network and place
its management and maintenance on a
secure and cost-effective footing by:
n Creating a joint programme of work with
local highways authorities, drawing on
leading practice to reverse the alarming
decline in the condition of local roads and
facilitate a shift from reactive to planned
maintenance regimes
n Ending damaging stop/start investment
in Englands motorways and trunk roads
by providing the Highways Agency with a
ve-year funding settlement and statement
of performance requirements
n Bringing forward long-delayed proposals
for options for the future ownership
and funding of the Strategic Roads
Network in England
EXTEND DEVOLUTION
TO FULLY-INTEGRATED
TRANSPORT BODIES

Government in England has pursued
a path of decentralisation in recent
years. ICE commends progress to
date and recommends extending the
process via democratically accountable
bodies, particularly for larger city-
regions across the UK, to allow:
n Greater responsibility for roads in
their areas, allowing more effective
multi-modal planning
n More effective powers over bus
networks, including service patterns,
information, ticketing and fares
2: 1: 3:
Transport underpins
almost every activity
access to work and
business, education,
health facilities, and social
interaction. It brings all
kinds of goods into the
UK and allows exporters
to compete in foreign
markets. The UKs ability
to generate and sustain
economic growth and
jobs depends on the
quality of our transport
systems.
The UK has mature and highly-developed
transport systems of infrastructure and services,
including almost 250,000 miles of roads and
10,000 miles of railways. Connections beyond
our shores rely heavily on a relatively small
number of major air and sea ports.
HOW WE TRAVEL
The total distance travelled in the UK almost
doubled from 1970 to 2010. The rising trend has
eased in recent years and while this may partly
be linked to wider changes in travel behaviour,
increasing demand could resume with economic
recovery and rising population.
The average number of trips per person is
largely unchanged from the 1970s but growth
has been driven by longer journeys and a larger
population. The volume of trafc on UK roads
has risen by around one-fth in the past twenty
years and there are one-third more cars on the
roads. They now account for almost four-fths of
distance travelled. In addition:
n Public transports share of trips rose from
9% to 11% between the mid-1990s and
2011, in large part because of increases in rail
patronage and London bus use. The number of
rail journeys has doubled in that time but local
bus trips outside London decreased by 13%
n Passenger movements at UK airports
increased 24% in the 10 years to 2011, due
to increased international travel
n Domestic freight movements mostly by
road were on a rising trend until the mid-
2000s but have since fallen back to around
1990 levels
n UK seaports handled 519 million tonnes
of freight in 2011, about half imports, the
remainder exports and domestic freight
n Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from
domestic transport account for around
one-quarter of the UK total. They rose by
11% from 1990-2010 (Source for all data:
Department for Transport)
1. BACKGROUND:
UK TRANSPORT TODAY
Air (UK)
Rail
Pedal cycles
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FIG. 1: Distance traveled in Great Britain, 1980-2010
Source for gure 1: Department for Transport
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
In recent years there has been some discussion
of whether the growth of private motoring has
peaked. In addition to the effects of economic
weakness, higher fuel prices, tax-inspired
reduction in business motoring, a signicant
decrease in the percentage of young men
holding driving licences and modal shift in
London have contributed to a reduction and
reversal of growth in the past decade. Historic
trafc growth estimates have also proven
excessive. Overall, however, it is not yet clear that
the UK has reached a tipping point, or even that
it is close in most parts of the country.
HOW DOES THE SYSTEM PERFORM?
Current performance is mixed but successive
studies have found signicant causes for concern:
n In 2006, a study by Sir Rod Eddington
1
for the
UK Government warned that the performance
of our transport system presented a threat to
future economic performance in particular,
he found that the cost of congestion could rise
to 36 billion per annum by 2025
n In 2011, the Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development (OECD) found that
Low investment in public infrastructure (in the
UK) has contributed to congestion, especially
in road transport and airports, hampering
productivity
2
Individual networks present different challenges,
for example:
n On the road network, the National
Infrastructure Plan (NIP) reports that for
England service quality and reliability on the
major road network has improved in recent
years but also found that, in the light of
longer term pressures, the physical condition
of large parts of the road network is a
cause for concern
n On the rail network, strong growth in demand
has made capacity a prime issue. Over
three-quarters of morning peak hour trains
into Leeds and London and around half into
Manchester and Birmingham had standing
passengers in autumn 2011
3
. Reliability and
punctuality have improved however, with
on-time arrivals rising from 79% in 2000/01
to 94% in 2012
4
. Long distance operators
showed most improvement. Passengers
satisfaction levels are also at record highs
85% overall in autumn 2012, although value
for money is rated much lower
5

n On aviation, the NIP reports that UK airport
delays are above the European average, and
foresees a signicant capacity challenge in
South East England unless new runways are
constructed
n On ports, the NIP reports that major container
port performance has improved in recent years.
Capacity margins have, however, diminished
(although London Gateway will add substantial
new capacity)
THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENTS
Overall, ICE believes governments priority should
be to clearly dene the outcomes required from
transport systems and align strategy, funding
decisions and other policy measures to those
outcomes.
Much transport policy responsibility is devolved
to the UKs constituent countries. The Scottish,
Welsh and Northern Irish administrations have
considerable exibility to develop and implement
their own policy. London also has signicant
devolved power. Otherwise in England, policy
remains principally the responsibility of the
Department for Transport (DfT). Local authorities
play an important role, as do other bodies such
as Network Rail, the Highways Agency and in
future Local Transport Bodies.
06+07
1. The Eddington Transport Study, 2006. Figures quoted are in 2002 prices 2. OECD Going for Growth 2011 Country Notes for
the UK 3. Ofce of Rail Regulation, 2012 4. Ofce of Rail Regulation, year to May 2013 (within ve minutes of schedule, or 10
minutes for long-distance services) 5. Autumn 2012 National Passenger Survey (NPS) reported by Passenger Focus in January 2013
Unlike the devolved administrations, England
does not have a specic national transport
strategy. The NIP gives an indication of the
Governments goals:
n Inter-city road and rail networks must connect
conurbations quickly and cost effectively
n Local transport systems must enable suburban
areas to grow
n Rapid and good value movement of goods
around the UK must be supported
n The system must be resilient and responsive to
infrequent and unexpected pressures
n Improved road and rail connectivity to major
ports and airports must support international
trade
n The UK must have successful and sustainable
aviation and maritime sectors
Where public spending is required, three criteria
are to guide infrastructure investments:
n Potential contribution to economic growth
investment that enhances productivity and
enables innovation
n Nationally-signicant investment that delivers
substantial new, replacement or enhanced
quality, sustainability and capacity of
infrastructure
n Projects that attract or unlock signicant
private investment
The devolved nations have their own
infrastructure investment plans, and all focus
on the importance of making best use of scarce
public funding a particular concern given
continuing pressure on public expenditure.
ICE AND TRANSPORT POLICY
ICE and its members bring expertise to bear in
all aspects of strategy, planning, delivery and
operation. ICE focused on transport policy in our
previous State of the Nation: Transport (2008),
and in our State of the Nation: Infrastructure
(2010).
While much has changed since 2008, the issues
for transport policy remain remarkably similar:
n Unclear strategic direction and funding
uncertainty, particularly in England
n Acute problems of capacity and congestion
n Inadequate approaches to road maintenance
and local transport
n Uncertain prospects for modal shift, demand
management and reduction of harmful
emissions
There are also positives, however:
n The UKs roads are now among the safest in
the world
n Our railways have experienced a renaissance in
performance and patronage
n Our seaports are generally efcient and
successful
n The experience of an integrated approach to
transport in London
2008s State of the Nation identied ve
objectives, which we believe remain relevant and
which if achieved will deliver a transport system
that is t for purpose and provides optimum
contribution to a successful UK:
n Maximise contribution to sustainable economic
growth
n Allow an enhanced quality of life, including by
maintaining affordability
n Achieve substantial reductions in harmful local
and global emissions
n Deliver an increasingly safe and more resilient
network
n Improve the planning and delivery of new
infrastructure
To help secure these objectives and build on
progress in recent years, ICE has identied a three
stage package of measures for governments,
industry and other stakeholders.
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
CASE STUDY 1:
ROAD SAFETY IN
NORTHERN IRELAND
The UKs record on road safety is one of great
improvement. Deaths on our roads are around
one quarter the level of the mid-1960s and the
gures have almost halved in this century.
There are many reasons for the improvements:
the three Es of engineering (both
infrastructure and vehicles), education, and
enforcement are often cited.
The example of Northern Ireland is particularly
striking. Road deaths have fallen from a peak of
372 deaths per year in 1972 to 48 in 2012 the
lowest number since records began in 1931.
The improvement has been attributed to a
long-running focus on changing attitudes,
particularly to speed and drink driving. Award-
winning, hard-hitting campaigns have made
a major contribution. The latest encourages
people to make an online pledge to share
Vision Zero to cut road deaths and the
Roads Safety Strategy to 2020 targets a 60%
reduction.
Source for gure 2: Department for Transport
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FIG. 2: Road safety international comparison
08+09
Some of the solutions to the challenges
facing the UKs transport networks may
require a fundamental rethinking of how
demand for, and supply of, infrastructure
and services can be managed differently.
However, some problems are too pressing and
require immediate attention. Government has
shied away from decisive action but ICE believes
that the time has come for decisions on:
n Reform of the funding and management of the
strategic roads network, particularly in England
n The UKs future aviation capacity, particularly
maintenance of an effective international hub
n The physical condition of the UKs roads
STRATEGIC ROADS NETWORK
The vast majority of transport uses the roads
largely in private cars, although buses,
goods vehicles, cyclists and pedestrians share
or adjoin the routes. Decades of rising motor
trafc has strained the capacity of the network:
population growth and renewed economic
growth could do so further. This is particularly
the case around our major conurbations and
on the main links between them but it is not
the whole story. There are still parts of the
country where roads do not meet modern
standards and where journey times, reliability
and safety standards are inadequate. This is
particularly the case for Welsh North-South
routes, and for some single carriageway
trunk routes in Scotland and England.
Funding for road maintenance and construction
is limited as public nances remain constrained.
Increased levels of private investment and more
efcient delivery by the roads supply chain will
both be required if we are to secure a Strategic
Roads Network (SRN)
6
that is t for purpose.
ICE believes that we must break away from
the stop/start pattern of investment that has
held back the development of the network
and in its place establish a long-term pipeline
of projects, supported by secure sources of
funding. Government in England has begun
the process of rethinking its approach to the
SRN via its response to Highways Agency
Chairman Sir Alan Cooks 2011 report into the
network
7
. Government has accepted some
of Sir Alans proposals and we particularly
welcome the publication earlier in 2013 of
a performance specication for the SRN
for the 2013-2015 period. It is however still
deliberating on the central issue of the future
ownership and status of the Agency and how
best to secure long-term funding certainty for
investment and operations. ICE has previously
suggested that the Regulatory Asset Base
(RAB) model already used for Network Rail
and some airports is worth consideration.
One way to ensure a clear funding stream would
be to hypothecate the proceeds of current
taxes on motoring to provide this fund or to
support the activities of a private sector operator
under the supervision of an economic regulator.
Motorists currently pay far more in fuel duty and
Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) than is re-invested in
the roads themselves (although this is not the
only cost from road use), but income to the
Treasury from roads-related taxes is expected
to fall in the longer-term even if mileage
increases as more fuel-efcient and electric and
other non-petrol/diesel vehicles become more
common. Against this backdrop ICE believes
that in the longer term a more sophisticated
system of charging for road use is likely to be
the best solution. We do however recognise the
enormous political challenge in delivering such a
change and the need for a full and open national
debate on the different options. In the interim,
governments should take steps to prepare for
any future change and realise the efciency
benets of establishing a long-term programme.
To move this situation forward ICE calls
on Government in England to:
n Bring forward its delayed consultation
paper on the future of the English
SRN as a matter of urgency
n Establish a 5 year performance specication
and funding settlement for the SRN
AVIATION FINALLY,
ITS TIME TO CHOOSE
ICE believes that the UK needs an effective
national aviation hub with capacity to provide
resilience for current levels of air trafc as
well as to accommodate future growth. A
hub is a strategic national asset, supporting a
wider route network than can be supported
by point-to-point services. It underpins the
UKs international connectivity, which is vital
for trade, tourism and inward investment.
Our existing hub, Heathrow, operates
very close to maximum capacity and is not
adequate for our future needs in its current
conguration. To maintain our long-term
global economic competitiveness, ICE believes
the UK is likely to require a hub airport on
a single site with more than three runways
and rapid connections to central London. UK
Government must therefore choose between
expanding Heathrow or ceasing to operate the
facility as a hub and quickly develop elsewhere
in the Greater South East of England.
ICE believes that:
n The Davies Commission
8
, currently examining
how any need for additional capacity should be
met, must evaluate all options against a range
of criteria including cost, economic returns,
greenhouse gas impacts, impact on local air
quality, integration with other modes, noise,
protected ecology and impact on patterns of
employment, business activity and urbanisation.
n Neither location decision removes the
need for action over the next 5-10 years to
address existing constraints at Heathrow
and keep the UK from slipping further
behind its European rivals. This action
will need to overlap with programmes of
investment aimed at the longer-term
2. IMMEDIATE ACTIONS TO IMPROVE
TRANSPORTS CONTRIBUTION TO
GROWTH AND QUALITY OF LIFE
6. The Strategic Roads Network (SRN) of motorways and trunk roads comprises just 3% of Englands road length but carries almost one-third of all trafc and two-thirds of freight 7. A fresh start for the Strategic Road Network by Alan Cook,
Chair of the Highways Agency (2011) 8. www.gov.uk/government/organisations/airports-commission 9. Local Road Maintenance: Recent trends and prospects (2012) RAC Foundation 10. 2013 Annual Local Authority Road Maintenance
(ALARM) Survey 11. For example, a Federation of Small Business (FSB) survey in 2011 reported an average cost to members of around 5000 per year because of the poor state of the road network. However, compensation for damage can
only be claimed if the road authority can be shown to have been negligent in its duty to inspect and maintain the roads
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
ICE urges UK Government to make a prompt
and clear decision on where to locate additional
capacity following the publication of the Davies
Commission recommendations in 2015. Brave
political leadership is required including by
opposition parties. In addition, ICE recommends
an Act of Parliament to create a special, time
limited delivery body like the Olympic Delivery
Authority (ODA) to implement the Davies
Commissions recommendations. Such a body
would be essential in providing focus and
leadership for timely and efcient delivery
of what will be a hugely complex project.
Government must also acknowledge the
vital contribution of regional airports to their
catchment areas, including via connecting ights
to the national hub. It should ensure regional
airports ability to full this role, through:
n The introduction of a Public Service Obligation
(PSO) on Heathrow or any future UK hub,
preserving landing slots to key UK regional
airports, particularly where a High Speed
Rail option is not available. This would
need to be accompanied by appropriate
compensation arrangements for hub operators
n An urgent review of the impact of current
levels of Air Passenger Duty on the
competitiveness of UK regional airports
ROAD MAINTENANCE AND
ASSET MANAGEMENT
The road networks physical condition is a cause
for concern. The 97% of roads in the care of
local authorities are a particular problem with
around one-third in urgent need of attention
or expected soon to be
9
. ICEs research also
revealed increasing concern about the strategic
network as funding for maintenance is squeezed.
This years annual ALARM
10
survey reported a
continuing major shortfall in local authorities
road maintenance budgets of the order of
1 billion per year equivalent to around a
12 year backlog based on current spending.
It further argued that the shortfall had led to
inefcient and ineffective patch and mend
regimes, while compensation paid to road
users suffering loss and damage due to poor
road surfaces is also a substantial drain
11
.
Continued failure to plan for the proper
resolution of this issue means exacerbating
and extending the problem. ICE believes that a
focused effort is required to clear the backlog
of work as a precursor to implementing a
sustainable and cost-effective asset management
regime. There will be a short-term cost
attached but also signicant benets. An
expanded road maintenance programme
will deliver cost efciencies and accessible
jobs more quickly and with fewer peaks and
troughs than other forms of construction.
ICE therefore urges central and local
government to co-operate to create a focused
programme of work drawing on experience
of leading practice, including the South East
Seven group of local authorities
12
ve year
programme, and the extension of Welsh
councils prudential borrowing powers.
10+11
2. IMMEDIATE ACTIONS TO IMPROVE
TRANSPORTS CONTRIBUTION TO
GROWTH AND QUALITY OF LIFE
12. The SE7 Partnership involves Brighton & Hove City Council, East Sussex County Council, Hampshire County Council, Kent County
Council, Medway Council, Surrey County Council and West Sussex County Council. They have committed to working together to improve
the quality of services and to achieve savings. The ve-year Highways programme, led by Surrey County Council, has enabled 16%
reduction in costs and creation of apprenticeships in the supply chain 13. ALARM Survey.
CASE STUDY 2:
ROAD MAINTENANCE
INNOVATION IN WALES
Faced with current spending pressures and
an estimated 14-year road maintenance
13

backlog, the Welsh Government and
councils devised an innovative approach,
learning from a model devised by Newport
City Council.
Whilst the Welsh Government does not
have borrowing powers and local authorities
do, the latter were uncertain about their
future ability to repay loans until the Welsh
Government provided assurance of funding
over 22 years to repay additional borrowing.
The Local Government Borrowing Initiative
(LGBI) should see an additional 170 million
capital funding being invested in highways
over the next three nancial years to
accelerate:
n Asset condition improvements
n Functionality improvements (to reduce
congestion, improve resilience, safety and
other levels of service)
The LGBI provides a rapid boost to the
construction sector at a difcult time
and prevents roads falling into further
disrepair.
CASE STUDY 3:
TARGETED CONGESTION
RELIEF: THE PINCH POINT
PROGRAMME
Congestion is a major problem for the
performance of Englands motorways
and trunks roads, and a heavy burden on
the economy. With limited public funding
for new capacity, and congestion pricing
not on Governments agenda, alternative
approaches to making best use of available
funding are particularly important.
In 2012, the Highways Agency began its
pinch point programme, backed initially by
217 million to which the Chancellor added
a further 100 million. The programme
supports smaller improvements offering
strong economic returns by easing
congestion and making journey times more
reliable. To date, 123 projects have been
announced, all to be complete by 2015.
Projects are divided between infrastructure
such as adding lanes and improving
junctions and technology schemes. The
latter support road users by improving driver
information, signage and incident clear up
times. Some projects have been developed
in partnership with local authorities and
Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs), to
ensure that local economic and transport
priorities are aligned.
The A38, one of the longest A roads
in England, running from Cornwall to
Nottinghamshire, is the subject of ve
pinch point projects. One, the 5.5 million
Splatford to Wobbly Wheel Improvement,
will provide an additional lane for trafc
merging with the A38 from the A380,
increasing capacity by 25%. The A38 is
a vital link for Torbay, Newton Abbot,
Teignmouth and Exeter - all areas of
signicant planned growth and the pinch
point scheme has an estimated Benet:
Cost Ratio (BCR) in excess of 5:1.
ICE believes that more effective policy and
decision-making over the medium-term would
be greatly aided by:
n Clear national strategy for all parts of the UK,
informed by an Independent Infrastructure
Commission (IIC) and resulting in a strategic
performance specication for transport
networks
n Extending the current trend towards devolution
of powers to integrated transport bodies,
learning particularly from the experience of
Transport for London (TfL)
Implementation of these recommendations
would provide much greater capacity for strategic
thinking about transport and is in line with the
current Westminster governments growth and
decentralisation agenda. In addition, we believe
they would create a more effective context for
actions in ve areas of high importance:
n Reinforcing and extending efforts to
achieve greater value for money, particularly
on the railways
n Accelerating the delivery of High Speed 2
n Delivering a renaissance for buses so that
the successes seen in London become typical
rather than the exception
n Unlocking the potential of cycling as an
efcient, healthy, safe and mainstream
travel option
n Ensuring freight concerns are understood
NATIONAL TRANSPORT STRATEGY
ICE has long argued that investment and delivery
of transport policy, as with other infrastructure,
should be guided by clear strategy. Others agree
in our extensive research and consultation
process, a transport strategy for England was the
most frequent call.
Absence of clear strategy has meant that
investments and improvement to our transport
system have been slower to develop, are more
expensive and deliver less. The protracted
development process of Heathrows Terminal
5 almost two decades from conception to
completion - shows the consequences of failing
to establish a strategic context to plan within.
Conversely, the Olympics showed what the UK
can do given clear objectives, consistent political
commitment and the right delivery mechanisms.
ICE has drawn on the experience of devolved
administrations (including London) in their
development and delivery of transport strategy.
In the near future we believe that each of the
UKs nations should have a comprehensive, up-
to-date transport strategy, which:
n Is the product of a national conversation
involving all different transport perspectives,
not least users
n Is tailored to national needs but takes a UK-
wide approach on areas of common interest,
particularly climate change
n Is joined-up across modes
n Has a long-term (several decades) perspective
with more detailed nearer term objectives
pursued through rolling ve year plans
n Mandates clearly understood performance
specications and robust delivery mechanisms
3. MORE EFFECTIVE POLICY MAKING
AND DELIVERY TO 2020
The UK already has a well-developed transport network. New infrastructure is
often expensive and controversial, and decisions concerning the existing system
can appear disjointed and focused on the short-term.
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
12+13
Transport strategy should be guided by
overarching economic, social and environmental
objectives. It should link clearly with spatial
planning transport connects places. In this
regard, the devolved administrations offer lessons
to England, where continued failure to complete
its National Policy Statements (NPS) for national
transport networks is particularly glaring and
must be rectied as soon as possible.
ICE recognises that government in England has
consistently struggled to develop strategy for
transport that is capable of surviving multiple
political cycles. We have recently made a
submission to Sir John Armitts independent
commission on long-term infrastructure planning,
setting out our ideas for an Independent
Infrastructure Commission to deal with this
issue. We believe an IIC would greatly improve
the quality of a national transport strategy and
is an ideal vehicle for auditing progress with its
implementation.
It is important to note that strategy is not the
same as planning or delivery. Previous efforts
at transport strategy have suffered from glaring
implementation decits. There are however
examples in parts of the transport system of
strategy being driven forward by more effective
planning. In rail, a High Level Output Specication
(HLOS) produced by the Secretary of State sets
out what is to be achieved over a ve-year
period. The HLOS is then used to guide the Ofce
of Rail Regulations directions to Network Rail on
its investment programme and charges to users.
It is also used to guide ORRs wider instructions
to Network Rail on how it should work with train
operators, suppliers and others to deliver more
for rail users. ICE believes that a whole transport
performance specication, forming part of the
National Infrastructure Plan would give more
specic form to a National Transport Strategy,
allowing funding and policy to be better aligned
to long term objectives, and facilitate monitoring
of progress against SMART
14
objectives. As an
example, an indicative performance specication
for UK transport networks in the period to 2020
is presented below.
OBJECTIVE: ACHIEVE THROUGH:
Maximise contribution to
sustainable economic growth
n Reduction in the cost of congestion by 2020
n Agreement on a future UK aviation hub in 2013, with a clear pathway to implementation of the preferred solution(s)
n Development of a workable pathway to introduce road user charging
n Agreement on journey time standards for speed and reliability on major inter-urban road and rail routes
n Expanded labour market catchments for major employment centres
n Improve road and rail connectivity to key ports and airports
Allow an enhanced quality of
life, including by maintaining
affordability
n Delivering increased capacity, and less overcrowding on public transport
n Facilitating greater social mobility by enhancing connections to employment
n Maintenance of affordable travel options for low income groups
Achieve substantial reductions in
harmful local and global emissions
n Reversal of the long-term trend for increasing greenhouse gas emissions from transport
n With the EU, introduction of a new round of vehicle emissions targets
n With sub-national partners, set and achieve reduction targets for local emissions hotspots
Deliver an increasingly safe and
more resilient network
n Reduction in accidents, injuries and deaths for all modes of transport
n Reduction in disruption due to extreme weather
n Signicant improvement in road condition leading to fewer potholes and related claims and damage
Improve delivery of new
infrastructure (time, cost, quality).
n Reduction in the unit costs of new road and rail infrastructure
n Longer and more consistent pipelines of projects for future major construction and maintenance projects
n Longer rail franchises and better alignment of operator and others objectives and incentives, leading to greater
investment, higher standards and lower costs
n National infrastructure plans delivery monitored by independent infrastructure commissions
INDICATIVE PERFORMANCE SPECIFICATION FOR UK TRANSPORT 2013-2020
14. Specic, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, Timebound
MAKING STRATEGY DELIVER AN
INFRASTRUCTURE COMMISSION
ICE has recently developed a proposal for
Sir John Armitts Independent Infrastructure
Review
15
, and is promoting the idea within
the current Coalition Government. Others,
such as the London School of Economics (LSE)
through its Growth Commission, and the
Engineering Employers Federation (EEF) have
developed similar thinking.
The case for an infrastructure commission
arises in the recognition that simply
devising strategy as much as this is
desirable, particularly in transport will
not necessarily deliver improved results.
Effective implementation is also required:
in infrastructure this demands consistency
of vision, stability of resources and process,
and the application of deep knowledge
and expertise across a broad spectrum of
stakeholders (not simply the client).
The mismatch between the long-term
nature of strategic infrastructure planning
and short-term political cycles has become a
commonplace observation. Dealing with the
negative consequences of this mismatch has
been given a new urgency by the scale of the
UKs investment needs over the next decade,
the increased pressure on public nances and
continued difculties in securing affordable
sources of private investment. These will
become particularly acute in transport policy.
ICE has also noted the trend in recent decades
for government to move from acting as the
owner, operator and funder of much of our
infrastructure to becoming an economic
regulator - implicitly the facilitator and ultimate
guarantor of high functioning networks.
ICE has proposed that this model be
extended to include the creation of a national
Independent Infrastructure Commission
initially in England but possibly replicated
in the devolved nations too charged with
advising government on:
n The setting of high level goals and outcomes
for infrastructure
n Development of the National Infrastructure
Plan, which would become a statutory
document
n Audit of implementation and performance
The Commission would operate at arms
length from Ministers, and be able to
develop as a centre of infrastructure planning
excellence detached from party political
constraints. ICE believes that its work should
explicitly focus on covering the following time
horizons:
n 50-30 years: identify mega trends and
options/scenarios for the trajectory of
development of key infrastructure networks.
This could include early stage planning
for major transformational programmes,
e.g. the development of a high speed rail
network
n 30-15 years: identify options for developing
the broad shape of networks and the
need for any transformational projects or
programmes within existing networks, for
example a signicant increase in renewable
energy generation
n 15-0 years: identify options for maintaining
current performance and incremental
enhancements including key upgrades,
improved asset management, congestion
relief etc.
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
14+15
15. www.armittreview.org 16. Quality Contracts are a form of franchising system, akin to the London model, which can be introduced
by local authorities or Integrated Transport Authorities. To date, no area has successfully introduced a Quality Contract.
CONTINUE AND EXTEND DEVOLUTION
TO POWERFUL, FULLY-INTEGRATED
TRANSPORT BODIES
One benet of a clear national strategy is that
it can guide the actions of others. ICE has long
favoured devolution of power to the appropriate
level. Devolution of transport has been a success
in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London.
The nature of travel means that local authority
areas, particularly in metropolitan zones, are
often too small for useful transport strategy.
ICE believes that city-regions are often the
most appropriate larger than local scale for
understanding and managing travel behaviour
and recommends that the trend towards
devolution to English city-regions be accelerated.
London is exceptional in many aspects but many
of the principles underpinning Transport for
London (TfL) are applicable to the UKs other
major metropolitan areas with multiple modes in
often congested areas.
In England today, Transport for Greater
Manchester (TfGM) is leading the way. ICE would
like to see it and other city-regions, particularly
those which already have Passenger Transport
Executives (PTEs), have still more responsibility,
especially over roads. This model may also be
appropriate for some smaller cities and multi-city-
regions, such as in the East Midlands.
ICE wants to see fully-integrated transport bodies
across the UK with with:
n Greater responsibility for roads in their areas,
including in the long run how they are
charged for and invested in
n More effective powers over bus networks,
service frequencies, real-time information,
ticketing and fares
n Greater inuence on local rail services
n Enhanced powers and resources to invest in
new light rail or other major improvements
n Democratic oversight via Combined Authorities
or similar arrangements
Examples of success already exist but they are
too few and reect limitations in powers and
funding. Perhaps the most obvious example
is in bus regulation where no area has yet
implemented a Quality Contract
16
. A couple of
city-regions are edging towards such Contracts
but there are major barriers to implementation,
including stiff operator resistance.
Powers need to be backed by greater and more
exible resources. Londons success can be
attributed to many things, including governance
and the nature of the city itself but it also
receives far more public spending per head on
transport. While Londons overcrowding pressure
and growth potential make it a special case,
ICE believes there is a strong case for increased
investment elsewhere and for greater exibility
and devolution of power over that funding.
Source for gure 3: HM Treasury
Capital expenditure
Current expenditure
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Fig. 3 Public spending per head on transport by devolved nation and English region
17. Ofce for Rail Regulation. Comparisons over time are based on data adjusted to 2008/09 prices for consistency
18. Much of this identied in the Realising the potential of GB rail produced by Sir Roy McNulty in 2011
0 0
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2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
0 0
Passenger billion kilometres
Public support (2008/09, billions)
Fig. 4 Rail patronage and public spending
4. SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIES
ICEs overarching recommendations for national strategy and extended
devolution provide the capacity to create and deliver transport policy
which is joined-up across modes, and tailored for particular geographies.
In the context of the national strategy, we have also identied a number
of specic priority areas for attention.
MORE FOR OUR MONEY,
ESPECIALLY ON RAIL
Rail passengers travelled almost 60 billion
kilometres in 2012, 50% more than in 2002 and
double the level of the mid-1990s. Fare revenue
also rose markedly, as did rail freight haulage.
But rails renaissance has come at a price. The
cost to the Exchequer of running Britains
railways is around 4 billion per year lower
than the peak of 6 billion in 2006/07 but
around double the levels of the 1990s
17
. Network
Rails borrowings are approaching 30 billion.
Governments aim of moving more of the rails
costs to passengers rather than taxpayers has
also led to higher fares for many passengers.
Rail strategy and planning is relatively clear and
well-developed. The aims and programme of
the 2014-19 Control Period (CP5) are largely
in place, and the industry is gearing up to
deliver. ICE endorses Network Rails focus on
achieving greater efciency
18
while also improving
capacity and journey times on key routes.
ICE believes that the rst priority for the
UK railway industry is to deliver on these
promises, and urges progress in:
n More, better and deeper alliances
between Network Rail, train operators
and contractors. The examples of Reading
stations redevelopment, Chiltern Railways
Evergreen project and the more recent
deep alliance between South West Trains
and Network Rail all offer useful learning
n Greater technical innovation to reduce
costs and disruption - such as off-site
fabrication and automated processes like
those being developed for electrication
infrastructure. Willingness to invest in
innovations will be aided by clearer market
information such as longer-term plans,
programmes and pipelines of projects
n Continued investment in maintenance and
replacement of the network, particularly to
provide resilience to cope with an increased
incidence of extreme weather events
Beyond measures currently envisaged, ICE
recommends:
n An extended strategy and planning process,
seven to eight years rather than the current
ve, identifying further opportunities to
provide more capacity more cost-effectively
n Continued efforts to remove unnecessary
or duplicate codes and standards, identied
as driver of higher costs by HM Treasurys
2010 Infrastructure Cost Review
n Integrated transport bodies to continue to be
more closely involved in the future development
of rail services into major cities, and their greater
integration with other forms of transport,
including light rail and possibly tram-trains.
Source for gure 4: Department for Transport, Ofce of Rail Regulation
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
16+17
19. National Audit Ofce (2013) High Speed 2: A review of early programme preparation 20. Quality Partnerships are agreements between the
public sector and bus operators, usually over operating standards (e.g. service frequencies, vehicle standards) in return for provision of bus lanes
or other measures. Partnerships can be voluntary or statutory.
CASE STUDY 4: SCOTLAND
LEADS RAILS RENAISSANCE
UK rail travel is at record levels. Passenger
numbers rose year-on-year through the recent
period of economic weakness in contrast to
road and air.
Rails resurgence demands increased capacity.
Attention has focused on making more of
the existing network, but now also includes
additional lines. High Speed 2 may be the
highest-prole example but Scotland has
already blazed a trail, re-opening routes closed
decades ago.
Most notable is Airdrie-Bathgate, opened on-
time and on-budget in 2010. It is the longest
railway and stations project in the UK for over
100 years. Work included laying 22km of new
track, upgrading of 31km of existing line, three
new stations and relocation or upgrading of
existing ones.
The line enhances access from North
Lanarkshire and West Lothian to Scotlands
largest economic centres, Glasgow and
Edinburgh. Their rail commuting markets were
forecast to grow by 24%-38% and 90%-
118% between 2008/09 and 2024/25.
Airdrie-Bathgate has contributed to this:
data showed large increases in passenger
numbers at existing stations, with some
achieving projected 10-year growth gures
in the rst year.
The routes popularity echoes the experience
of other Scottish rail re-openings, with the
Larkhall and Stirling-Alloa routes both seeing
demand well ahead of forecast.
ICE would like to see more exible
franchises to incentivise greater operator
investment and innovation, specically:
n Longer franchise periods (at least 7-10 years) so
that operators have more incentive to invest in
the Network Rail-led industry planning process
n Greater exibility in the specication of
franchises so that bidders can suggest
alterations where these can more efciently
meet governments strategic objectives
ACCELERATED HIGH SPEED 2 (HS2)
HS2 has the potential to usher in a new
era for UK rail, bringing huge new levels of
capacity, and re-shaping urban geography. As
a recent report by the National Audit Ofce
19
has highlighted the economic case for HS2
is stronger when it is considered as a more
extensive network, connecting London with
Leeds and Manchester and ultimately Glasgow
and Edinburgh. In addition, long experience
shows that greater continuity between phases
of the project will reduce overall costs.
To ensure that HS2s potential is fully realised
government and HS2 Ltd should:
n Review options for accelerating delivery of
phase 1 (London-Birmingham) of the project.
There is no fundamental engineering reason
why this phase of the programme could not
be delivered more quickly potentially in
the lifetime of the next parliament though
we acknowledge this would require several
legal and nancial hurdles to be overcome
n Press ahead with detailed design work
for phase 2 (the Y shaped route to
Manchester and Leeds) and as a precursor
to establishing greater continuity
between phases of the programme
n Establish plans, in partnership with the
Scottish Government, for an earlier
extension to Glasgow and Edinburgh
MAKING BUSES AN
ATTRACTIVE ALTERNATIVE
In contrast to rail, local buses have not with
a few exceptions seen signicant increases
in patronage. In Englands metropolitan areas
(excluding London), ridership has halved since
the mid-1980s. Nevertheless, more people use
buses than trains and in many areas they are
often the only option for those without cars.
ICE would like to see changes to ensure
a better, more attractive, bus service
that in urban areas offers a competitive
alternative to the private car and congested
rail for many trips. We recommend:
n Enhancing metropolitan areas effective
powers over routes, fares, frequencies and
vehicle standards (particularly with respect
to emissions). To this end, UK Government
should review the effectiveness of Quality
Partnerships
20
and particularly Quality
Contracts, making the latter a more practical
option if other means prove inadequate
n Reviewing compulsory concessionary fares
schemes in order to optimise their considerable
budgets against clear transport and other
objectives. While understandably popular
with beneciaries the schemes equity and
long-term value for money appear unclear
n Requiring operators to accept multi-
operator smart ticketing as a condition of
operation (as is the case in London, and
for concessionary fares in Scotland)
n Ensuring that reliable, accessible real
time running information is universally
available via simple mobile applications
n Future rail franchises should require much
better integration of on-train and in-station
bus service information to facilitate joined-
up journeys and encourage modal shift
Outside of London, current arrangements
work well in places (Oxford and Brighton, for
example) but such good practice needs to
become the norm, rather than the exception.
We recognise that a more regulated approach
to bus services could impose costs on the
public purse and that budgets are already
under pressure. However, with around 2.5
billion of public money being spent on bus
operations in England each year, representing
a large part of operators income, there is also
scope to achieve more from current spending.
A CYCLING REVOLUTION
Cycling could make a much greater contribution
to our journeys two-thirds of which are ve
miles or less. Cyclings share of trips in the
UK is extremely low (around 2%) compared
with the best Northern European nations and
usually chosen by only a few groups a recent
All Party Parliamentary Cycling Group (APPCG)
report described frequent cyclists as typically
white, male, between 25 and 44, and on a
higher than average income. ICE believes that
cycling should be an attractive option for all.
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London
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Scotland
Wales
Source for gure 5: Department for Transport
FIG. 5: Bus ridership
Clear national objectives and targets need to
be established and backed with appropriate
resources, leadership and will, so that
local interpretation and implementation
is effective. In addition, ICE makes the
following specic recommendations:
n The limited extent, continuity and quality of
cycle infrastructure should addressed by:
Roads authorities in major metropolitan areas
being required by national policy to promote a
comprehensive, high quality cycling network
More segregated space on routes where
the scope for conict between cycling
and motorised trafc is greatest
Greater use of trafc calming measures,
including 20mph speed limits, on
residential streets and roads where
segregation is inappropriate
n Widespread concerns over safety and
conict with motorised users, particularly
heavy vehicles, should be addressed by:
Drivers of heavy vehicles undergoing
specialist training and certication
Heavier penalties for careless or
incompetent drivers who cause injury
or death to cyclists alongside wider
enforcement for cyclists transgressions
More consistent and comprehensive
enforcement of trafc regulations on all users
The construction industry, whose vehicles
pose a particular hazard to cyclists, should
adopt the same level of health and safety
standards in its off-site operations as on-site
FREIGHT FORWARD
The importance of freight is sometimes
overlooked in discussions about car use,
airport runways and passenger rail. Yet
we rely on it to keep us fed, clothed and
generally functioning in almost every
sense. Its time freight came to the fore.
The vast majority of domestic freight moves by
road. Congestion and journey time unreliability
are among the greatest problems for hauliers.
In this regard, the Eddington Study identied
that targeted investment to relieve existing
pinch points often offered the greatest
economic return. Eddington also recognised
the importance of freight and the right
priorities for transport investment generally:
n Urban networks
n Key inter-urban links
n International gateways (sea and air ports)
ICE urges that national transport strategies
explicitly recognise these priorities, as well
as the value of freight. In order to make
best use of road freight, and to mitigate its
challenges, ICE calls on governments to:
n Ensure that the reform of the strategic roads
network (which carries two-thirds of freight)
has freight concerns at its core. Road haulage
will remain dominant just a 10% percentage
modal shift would overwhelm the rail network
n Prioritise improvement to sea port connections.
The UKs ports are a quiet success story -
handling the highest tonnage in Europe, and
without public subsidy - but land connections
are one of their biggest issues. Governments
should facilitate ports expected growth
n Use goods vehicles as the basis for introducing
a sophisticated national road pricing scheme
(the forthcoming vignette scheme (a at
daily charge offset against Vehicle Excise Duty
(VED)), which takes no account of distance,
route or time of travel, is a missed opportunity)
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
18+19
TRANSPORT EMISSIONS
Domestic transport accounts for around one-
quarter of the UKs greenhouse gas emissions,
and its share is rising. Nitrogen oxide (NOx)
and particulate matter (PM) emissions from
diesel engines are also responsible for tens of
thousands of premature deaths, typically in
congested and built-up areas.
Governments envisage a transition to non-
fossil fuelled vehicles as the long-term solution
to both problems but progress has been slow.
Electric vehicles have not advanced as hoped
and improvements in internal combustion
efciency have made the transition less
predictable.
Uncertainty around technological innovation,
consumer attitudes and hard economics
make a denitive transition pathway unclear
at present. But there are a number of useful
actions ICE commends to policymakers:
n Redouble efforts to promote electric vehicles
through the Plugged In Places programme,
with greater focus on eet (particularly public
sector) and light commercial operations
where range, resale and status anxiety is
less of a concern and where clearer and
more compelling business models could be
developed
n Continue effective European collaboration
on internal combustion engine efciency.
EU Directives have delivered major
improvements in CO
2
, NOx and PM - but
much more can be realised
n Include clear objectives and incentives for
modal shift in national transport strategies,
including greater rail capacity and much
more attractive bus, walking and cycling
options
n Give greater encouragement to the
conversion of heavy passenger and freight
eets to renewable natural gas and possibly
hydrogen power
n More clearly link transport and spatial
planning and land use policy to reduce the
need to travel and/or promote low carbon
options where possible
CASE STUDY 5: BWCABUS:
DEMAND-RESPONSIVE
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
Like many rural areas, Mid and South
Ceredigion and North Carmarthenshire faced
difculties in maintaining a viable public
transport service. Patronage and revenues
were falling despite subsidy. The solution was a
demand-responsive, exible service - Bwcabus -
launched in 2009.
Bwcabus operates in response to pre-booked
journey requests. Satellite technology and a
sophisticated mapping and scheduling system
allows isolated passengers to be picked up at a
convenient time and location. The service runs
7am-7pm, Mondays to Saturdays and operates
as a feeder to the regular 460 bus service along
the A484 corridor.
The concept has proved successful. Against a
forecast of around 9,000 passengers in its rst
year, Bwcabus carried 13,000. It has around
1,000 registered users and very high levels of
passenger satisfaction. By serving a number
of interchanges, Bwcabus has also increased
patronage on the 460 service and improved
its journey times by reducing the number of
diversions it makes from the main road.
Bwcabus was extended in 2012 and patronage
continues to increase. Its 2 per passenger
subsidy is around one-third of previous services.
Bwcabus was developed by the Wales
Transport Research Centre at the University
of Glamorgan and the service is supported
by Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion County
Councils, the Welsh Government, Traveline
Cymru and private bus operators. It received
support from the European Union.
n Support continued mode shift from road to
rail, short sea shipping and inland waterways
where these represent cost-effective ways of
reducing congestion and emissions. On rail,
further electrication and gauge enhancements
(particularly to allow more large containers
to be carried) are especially important
n Tackle road freight emissions both greenhouse
gases and locally-harmful nitrogen oxide (NOx)
and particulate matter (PM) by facilitating
rapid roll-out of infrastructure for gas-powered
heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) and accelerating
the transition to electric power of rapidly
expanding light van operations
21
, coupled
with renewed encouragement of the use
of Low Emission Zones
22
outside London
n Improve planning regulations to ease
development of freight interchanges
(including ports) and the introduction of
night-time quiet deliveries in built-up areas
n Require hauliers to improve safety for
cyclists, particularly in urban areas
21. Greenhouse gas emissions from light vans increased by 21% from 2000-2010. HGV and car emissions fell by 8% and 9%
22. Low Emissions Zones (LEZ) are areas in which specic emissions standards apply. London has the worlds largest LEZ, covering most
of the city. Vehicles failing to comply with the Euro 4 standard for particulate matter (PM) emissions set must pay a daily charge
In most cases there is great uncertainty
around the possible impact and appropriate
responses. Such issues include:
n The growing need for emissions
reduction, particularly CO
2
, in
contrast to the long-term trend
n The pressures of a growing population
and other demographic change coupled
with long-term travel growth pressures
n The rising cost of fuel and fares, coupled
with a long-term decline in public funding
n The potential effect of new (and increasingly
ubiquitous) communications and materials
technologies on travel behaviour, network
management and vehicle design
None of these issues are new, nor are they
entirely unexplored, but they often fall into the
categories of important but not urgent or just
too difcult. UK government could ignore
these questions for as long as possible and hope
to muddle through, or wait until economic or
political crises force hasty responses - or it could
begin a national conversation about how to deal
with the risks and opportunities they present.
ICE recommends that as part of developing
a national transport strategy for England,
government creates a Transport Futures Board
(TFB). This board should operate independently
of government and investigate a small number
of the most signicant and sensitive topics,
engage widely with the public and make
practical, costed proposals for dealing with
them. The Committee for Climate Change
already performs a similar role in its eld and
provides a model of an organisation that
has been able to gather a critical mass of
expertise, gain authority, assess competing
claims and call on international best practice.
A TFB would sit naturally as part of an
Independent Infrastructure Commission.
The obvious rst role for the TFB would be to
explore how we pay for travel in the future. It
has been very apparent to ICE and many others
that current funding and management models
for UK roads are unlikely to be sustainable in
the long-term yet the concept of road user
charging is politically toxic. As a result, any
recommendation for road user charging is likely
to be dismissed as unrealistic but maintaining
the status quo in perpetuity appears equally
unrealistic. What is required is a process by
which the arguments can be properly aired,
options identied and pathways mapped,
including the development and public debate
of realistic scenarios for travel in 2030.
5. IMPROVING CAPABILITY FOR
DECISION MAKING FOR THE LONG-TERM
Looking beyond the specic short-term and medium-term recommendations
in this report, our research has identied a number of emerging, sensitive
or complex issues that are beyond the sensible scope of ICE or government
policy to prescribe solutions at this point. But they will in time inevitably
have a major impact on transport strategy.
5. IMPROVING CAPABILITY FOR
DECISION MAKING FOR THE LONG-TERM
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
20+21
ROAD PRICING: ICES VIEW
The current model of charging for road use
is not t for the future. From the motorists
perspective, road-related taxes are not
clearly related to expenditure on maintaining
and improving a congested and crumbling
network or providing effective alternatives.
Conversely, Treasury ofcials must be
concerned at the prospect of long-term
decline in income from Vehicle Excise Duty
(VED) and fuel duty as more efcient internal
combustion and non-petrol/diesel vehicles
become more prevalent. The question is how
and when to reform the system, not whether.
ICE, with many other organisations, believes
that the best solution to charging for road use
is a nationwide road user charging scheme
designed to:
n Reduce congestion and delay, making
journey times more reliable and enhancing
economic performance
n Reduce emissions, particularly in local
hotspots where nitrous oxide (NOx) and
particulate matter (PM) emissions are
responsible for tens of thousands of early
deaths
n Link road use with funding for maintenance,
management and improvement of the
network to a higher standard
n Provide a clear source of funding for
alternatives to driving, particularly public
transport and cycling
n Be revenue-neutral overall, with increased
costs on motorists offset by reductions in
fuel duty, VED and possibly other costs such
as insurance particularly for low mileage
drivers and those able to alter their travel
behaviour
ICE understands that road user charging is a
politically-sensitive topic which has aroused
strong opposition. Public trust in government
good faith on motoring taxation and on the
availability, practicality, pricing and safety of
alternative modes is low. For those reasons,
we do not recommend the early or blanket
implementation of any scheme but suggest
that its design and implementation be made
the focus of the proposed Transport Futures
Board. Their research should illuminate a set
of options and pathways by which road user
charging could be phased in, while including
appropriate safeguards for essential car use
and protection of privacy.
The research should be conducted in the
spirit of a national conversation, and as
part of national transport strategy including
many other measures such as support for
alternative fuels and modes.
Introducing a road user charging scheme
may well be difcult. But as identied by the
Eddington Study, should trafc growth return
to trend, the consequence of continuing
with business as usual will be tens of billions
in congestion and delay costs to the UKs
economy.
MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS
n Immediate action to improve road
conditions, planning and funding
n Clear national transport strategies across the UK
n Extend devolution to fully-integrated bodies
IMMEDIATE ACTIONS TO IMPROVE
TRANSPORTS CONTRIBUTION TO
GROWTH AND QUALITY OF LIFE
STRATEGIC ROADS NETWORK (SRN)
n Bring forward the delayed consultation
paper on the future of the English SRN
n Five year performance specication and funding
AVIATION FINALLY,
ITS TIME TO CHOOSE
n Expand Heathrow or cease to
operate it as a hub and develop
elsewhere in greater SE England
n Legislate for a time limited delivery organisation,
particularly if a new site is to be developed
n Introduce a Public Service Obligation
(PSO) on the future hub, preserving
landing slots to key regional airports
n Review the impact of Air Passenger Duty
(APD) on regional airports competitiveness
ROAD MAINTENANCE AND
ASSET MANAGEMENT
n Clear the backlog of work before implementing
sustainable, cost-effective asset management
n Draw on leading practice, including the
South East Seven and Welsh Councils
MORE EFFECTIVE POLICY
AND DELIVERY TO 2020
n Clear national strategy for all parts of the UK
n An Independent Infrastructure Commission
to inform strategy and implementation
n Outcome-based performance
specication for transport networks
n Extend devolution to fully-integrated
bodies, learning particularly from TfL
n Complete the National Policy Statements (NPS)
SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS
REINFORCE AND EXTEND PURSUIT
OF VALUE FOR MONEY ON RAIL, BY:
n More, better and deeper industry alliances
n Technical innovation to reduce cost and
disruption
n Continuing investment in maintenance and
replacement, particularly to improve resilience
n Extending rails planning period to 7-8 years
n Involving integrated transport bodies more
closely in rails future development
n Removing surplus/duplicate codes and
standards
n 7-10+ year franchises to incentivise investment
n Greater exibility in franchise specication
ACCELERATE HIGH SPEED 2S
DELIVERY PROGRAMME BY:
n Reviewing phase 1 delivery options
n Pressing ahead with detailed phase 2 design
n Planning earlier extension to Scotland
MAKE BUSES AN ATTRACTIVE
ALTERNATIVE BY:
n Enhancing metropolitan areas effective powers
on routes, fares, frequencies, vehicle standards
n Reviewing Quality Partnerships and Contracts
n Reviewing concessionary fares schemes
n Requiring multi-operator smart ticketing
n Ensuring reliable, accessible real
time running information
n Requiring future rail franchises to include
better on-train and in-station bus information
UNLOCK THE POTENTIAL OF
CYCLING THROUGH:
n Clear national objectives and targets
n High quality networks in metropolitan areas
n More segregated space in areas of conict
n More trafc calming measures elsewhere
n Certied training for drivers of heavy vehicles
n Heavier penalties for careless or incompetent
drivers injuring or killing cyclists
n More consistent and comprehensive
enforcement of trafc regulations on all users
n On-site safety standards in off-site vehicle
operation
ENSURE FREIGHT CONCERNS
ARE TO THE FORE BY:
n Ensuring SRN reform has freight at its core
n Prioritising port connections
n Facilitating ports growth
n Using goods vehicles to introduce
sophisticated road pricing
n Supporting continued mode shift from road to
rail, short sea shipping and inland waterways
n Tackling emissions through infrastructure for
gas-powered heavy vehicles, accelerating
transition to electric power for van and
encouraging use of Low Emission Zones
n Improving planning for freight interchanges
and promoting night-time quiet deliveries
n Requiring hauliers improve cyclist safety
TRANSPORT EMISSIONS
n Redoubling effort on Plugged In Places
through focus on eet operators
n Continue European collaboration on
internal combustion emission standards
n Clear objectives and incentives for modal
shift in national transport strategies
n Greater encouragement to conversion
of heavy vehicles to renewable natural
gas and possibly hydrogen power
n Clearer transport and spatial planning links
IMPROVING CAPABILITY FOR
LONG-TERM DECISION-MAKING
n A Transport Futures Board (TFB) within an
Independent Infrastructure Commission
n TFB to explore the future of paying for travel
THE STATE OF THE NATION:
SUMMARY OF ALL
RECOMMENDATIONS
THE STATE
OF THE NATION
TRANSPORT
22+23
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ICE is grateful to the following individuals and
organisations for their assistance in producing
this report.
INDIVIDUALS
Christopher Bolton; Noel Burton; John Davison;
Richard Fish; Peter Glass; David Gregg; Alistair
Hitchcock; Derek Jones; Roger Juer; John
Mather; Anthony May; Ronald Rakusen; Robert
Taylor; Colin Wheeler; Bill Winter; John
Wootton
ORGANISATIONS CONSULTED
OR SUBMITTING EVIDENCE
- Airport Operators Association
- Arup
- Association for Consultancy and
Engineering (ACE)
- Association of Directors of Environment,
Economy, Planning & Transport (ADEPT)
- Association of Train Operating
Companies (ATOC)
- Atkins
- Balfour Beatty/Parsons Brinkerhoff
- BAM Nuttall
- Birmingham Friends of the Earth
- British Chambers of Commerce
- Campaign for Better Transport
- Centre for Cities
- CH2M Hill
- Chartered Institute of Highways
& Transportation (CIHT)
- Civil Engineering Contractors
Association (CECA)
- Confederation of British Industry (CBI)
- Department for Energy and
Climate Change (DECC)
- Department for Food and Rural Affairs
(DEFRA)
- Department for Business, Innovation
& Skills (BIS)
- Department for Transport (DfT)
- Department of Communities and
Local Government (DCLG)
- Federation of Small Business
- Freight Transport Association
- Gatwick Airport
- Highways Agency
- Centre for Transport Studies,
Imperial College London
- Independent Transport Commission
- Infrastructure UK
- Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR)
- Institute for Transport Studies,
University of Leeds
- Institution of Mechanical Engineers
- Jacobs
- KPMG
- Living Streets
- Local Government Association
- Macquarie Infrastructure and
Real Assets (MIRA)
- Network Rail
- Transport Operations Research Group,
University of Newcastle
- Northamptonshire County Council
- Passenger Transport Executive Group (pteg)
- RAC Foundation
- Royal Academy of Engineering
- Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI)
- Engineering and the Environment,
University of Southampton
- Stagecoach
- Steer Davis Gleave
- Stobarts
- Sustrans
- The Bristol Port Company
- Topcon GB Ltd.
- Transport for London (TfL)
- Transport Planning Society
- UK Major Ports Group
- School of Civil Engineering,
University of Birmingham
- School of Architecture and the Built
Environment, University of Westminster
- Windsor Link Railway Ltd
- Wynns Ltd.
ICE also met with parliamentarians from the
three main Westminster parties, including
Ministers, Shadow Ministers and Select
Committee members.
MAIN
RECOMMENDATIONS

MORE EFFECTIVE
POLICY AND
DELIVERY TO 2020
IMPROVING CAPABILITY
FOR LONG-TERM
DECISION-MAKING
I
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STRATEGIC
ROADS
NETWORK
RAIL
AVIATION
HIGH SPEED 2
ROAD
MAINTENANCE
BUSES
CYCLING
FREIGHT
EMISSIONS
2013-15 2016-18 2019+
nImmediate action to improve road conditions, planning and funding
nClear national transport strategies across the UK [timeline applies to England]
nExtend devolution to fully-integrated bodies
nClear national transport strategies across the UK [timeline applies to England]
nIndependent Infrastructure Commission
nOutcome-based performance specication
nExtend devolution to fully-integrated bodies
nComplete the National Policy Statements (NPS)
nBring forward the delayed consultation paper on the future of the English SRN
n Five year performance specication and funding
nIntroduce new ownership and funding mode
nMore, better and deeper industry alliances
nTechnical innovation to reduce cost, disruption
nContinuing investment in maintenance and replacement, particularly to improve resilience
nExtending rails planning period to 7-8 years
nInvolving integrated transport bodies more closely
nRemove surplus/duplicate codes, standards
n7-10+ year franchises to incentivise investment
nGreater exibility in franchise specication
nDecision on future hub
nLegislate for a time limited delivery organisation
nIntroduce a Public Service Obligation (PSO) on the future hub
nReview the impact of Air Passenger Duty (APD)
nReview phase 1 delivery options
nPress ahead with detailed phase 2 design
nPlan earlier extension to Scotland
nClear the backlog of work
n Draw on leading practice in proactive asset management
nEnhance metropolitan areas effective powers
nReview Quality Partnerships and Contracts
nReview concessionary fares schemes
n Require multi-operator smart ticketing
n Ensure reliable, accessible real time running information
n Future franchises incl. better on-train/in-station bus info
nClear national objectives and targets
n High quality networks in metropolitan areas
nMore segregated space in areas of conict
nMore trafc calming measures elsewhere
nCertied training for drivers of heavy vehicles
nHeavier penalties for careless or incompetent drivers injuring or killing cyclists
nWider enforcement for cyclists transgressions
nOn-site safety standards in off-site vehicle operation
Ensuring SRN reform has freight at its core
Prioritising port connections
Facilitating ports growth
Using goods vehicles to introduce sophisticated road pricing
Supporting continued mode shift from road to rail, short sea shipping and inland waterways
Infrastructure for gas-powered heavy vehicles; electric power for vans; more Low Emissions Zones
Improving planning for freight interchanges and promoting night-time quiet deliveries
Requiring hauliers improve cyclist safety
nRedoubling effort on Plugged In Places through focus on eet operators
nContinue European collaboration on internal combustion emission standards
nClear objectives and incentives for modal shift in national transport strategies
nEncouragement to conversion of heavy vehicles to renewable natural gas and - possibly - hydrogen
nClearer transport and spatial planning links
nTransport Futures Board within Independent Infrastructure Commission
nTFB to explore the future of paying for travel
One Great George Street
Westminster
London SW1P 3AA
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