Commodities I Metals & Energy

April 23, 2013

Sr.Analyst:[email protected]
501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.

Precious metals
High Low Close %Chg OI
MCX
Gold(J un) (`/10 gm) 26,542 26,184 26,363 1.2 13,847
Silver(May) (`/kg) 44,070 43,427 43,687 0.6 17,263
Gold Mini (`/10 gm) 26,500 25,990 26,357 1.5 18,849
Silver Mini (`/kg) 44,080 43,411 43,688 0.6 23,696
COMEX (US$/oz)
Gold(J un) 1,438.8 1,403.5 1,421.2 1.0 254,602
Silver(May) 23.65 23.07 23.32 0.4 44,114
Base metals
High Low Close %Chg OI
MCX (`/kg)
Alum.(Apr) 101.5 100.1 101.4 0.3 6,673
Copper(Apr) 375.8 368.4 375.0 (0.3) 22,620
Lead(Apr) 109.8 107.9 108.1 (0.9) 5,355
Nickel(Apr) 830.7 815.1 827.2 0.7 16,546
Zinc(Apr) 100.9 99.6 100.3 (0.1) 6,243
LME(3mths) (US$/ton)
Aluminum 1,895 1,869 1,893 0.6 --
Copper 7,002 6,815 6,926 (0.6) --
Lead 2,045 2,005 2,006 (0.6) --
Nickel 15,368 15,092 15,301 0.8 --
Zinc 1,893 1,861 1,880 0.1 --
Energy
High Low Close %Chg OI
MCX
Cr. oil(May) (`/bbl) 4,853 4,775 4,834 1.2 14,139
Nat.gas(Apr) (`/mmbtu) 235.4 230.7 231.0 (2.1) 42,837
NCDEX
Cr. oil (`/bbl) 4,849 4,792 4,827 1.1 24
NYMEX
Cr. oil(J un) (US$/bbl) 89.5 87.7 89.2 1.0 331,410
Nat.gas(May)
(US$/mmbtu) 4.39 4.25 4.27 (2.8) 80,391
Currency
Close Prev close %Chg
Rs`/US$ 54.14 53.90 0.4
US$/EUR 1.3061 1.3048 0.1
US$/GBP 1.5285 1.5227 0.4
J PY/US$ 99.30 99.53 (0.2)
LME Inventory levels
Base Metals Close Prev close %Chg
Aluminum 5,176,850 5,186,075 (0.2)
Copper 613,075 614,350 (0.2)
Lead 259,850 259,850 0.0
Nickel 173,976 172,296 1.0
Tin 14,485 14,545 (0.4)
Zinc 1,104,775 1,110,650 (0.5)
Ratios
Close Close Ratio
Gold v/s Oil 1,421.2 89.2 15.9
Gold v/s Silver 1,421.2 23.32 60.9
Market pulse

Gold futures closed in positive for the third
straight session, to closed above $1,400 per
ounce, buoyed by physical demand for the metal
following data which showing that big traders
have reduced their bets for a fall in prices.
Gold holdings of SPDR gold trust, the largest
ETF backed by the precious metal, declined to
1,104.71 tons, as on April 22.
Silver holdings of ishares silver trust, the largest
ETF backed by the metal, declined to 10,451.01
tons, as on April 15.
The ICE dollar index, a measure of the dollar
against a basket of six other major currencies,
fell slightly to 82.722 from 82.731 on Friday.
The Japanese yen hovered near the key level of
100 yen per dollar on Monday, after the G20
accepted Japan's bold stimulus policies, while
weak economic data out of the United States
pressured global equities markets.
Copper prices declined for the second straight
session, as lower imports by China and an
unexpected drop in US home sales fueled
concern that demand is weakening in two of the
biggest users of the metal.
Imports of refined copper by China, the biggest
user, rose in March from the lowest level in 19-
months while exports expanded for the seventh
straight month. Inbound shipments stood at
218,823 tons, 1.8% higher than 214,949 tons
arrivals in February.
Refined-copper imports in the first quarter fell
36% from a year ago to 676,943 tons, while
exports surged to 125,423 tons, more than four
times from a year ago. Copper-concentrate
imports by China climbed to 777,838 tons from
681,148 tons a month earlier, as per customs
data.
Nickel prices have come under pressure from
poor stainless steel demand, which has pushed
LME inventories to record highs, and toppled
prices to their lowest level in almost 4-years at
$15,092 per ton earlier in the session.
Daily average primary aluminum output rose
slightly to 68,500 tons in March, against a
revised 68,400 tons in February, as per data
from the International Aluminum Institute.
Crude oil futures recovered from early losses to
close higher, with Brent crude back above $100
per barrel for the first time in a week, as buyers
returned after last week's deep sell-off.
Natural gas futures fell more than 3%, posting
the biggest price drop since mid-February, as
revised forecasts called for above-normal
temperatures in the central US.


Commodities I Metals & Energy
April 23, 2013
Sr.Analyst:[email protected]
501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.

Pivot levels
MCX levels
Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3
Gold 26,644 26,542 26,447 26,363 26,279 26,184 26,082
Silver 44,192 44,009 43,838 43,687 43,536 43,366 43,182
Aluminum 102.4 102.0 101.7 101.4 101.0 100.7 100.3
Copper 380.8 378.7 376.8 375.0 373.2 371.3 369.2
Lead 109.6 109.1 108.5 108.1 107.7 107.2 106.6
Nickel 839 835 831 827 824 819 815
Zinc 101.3 101.0 100.6 100.3 100.0 99.7 99.3
Crude oil 4,895 4,873 4,852 4,834 4,816 4,795 4,773
Nat. Gas 234.7 233.4 232.1 231.0 229.9 228.7 227.3
International levels
Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3
Gold 1,448.9 1,438.9 1,429.5 1,421.2 1,412.9 1,403.6 1,393.5
Silver 23.78 23.61 23.46 23.32 23.19 23.03 22.87
Aluminum 1,913 1,906 1,899 1,893 1,887 1,880 1,873
Copper 7,073 7,019 6,970 6,926 6,882 6,833 6,779
Lead 2,038 2,026 2,016 2,006 1,996 1,986 1,974
Nickel 15,518 15,439 15,366 15,301 15,236 15,163 15,084
Zinc 1,905 1,896 1,888 1,880 1,873 1,864 1,855
Crude oil 90.60 90.09 89.61 89.19 88.77 88.30 87.78
Nat. Gas 4.38 4.34 4.30 4.27 4.23 4.20 4.16
A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day.
Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.

Trade Recommendations
Commodity Strategy Levels Target 1 Target 2 Stop-Loss Trend*
Gold (J un) Buy 26210-26230 26300 26400 26180 Down
Silver (May) Sell Around 44000 43750 43500 44120 Down
Copper (Apr) Sell Below 375 372 369 377.5 Sideways
Aluminum (Apr) Sell Below 101.2 100.3 99.4 101.9 Sideways
Lead (Apr) Sell Below 107.9 107 106 108.6 Sideways
Nickel (Apr) Hold Sell 830-834 815 800 835 Down
Zinc (Apr) - Around 101.5 100.5 99.5 102 Sideways
Crude oil (May) Buy Around 4800 4850 4900 4770 Up
Natural gas (Apr) Buy Around 226 230 235 224 Up
**Strict Stop-Loss *Trend - its an overall trend & not a part of intra-day buy / sell strategies.
Note: Calls given above are purely technical calls and not based on fundamentals.

Technical Alerts
Gold

Sharp selling was seen in June futures last week & prices are not expected consolidate; but trend still remains
down till prices are trading below 27450 (with immediate resistance at 26150 levels). On the lower side,
support holds at 24990, a breach below the given levels further selling is expected till 24000 & 22900 levels.


Spot Gold
Prices fell close its CY2011 low of $1,307.45 on charts. Prices are now expected to consolidate with some
marginal recovery seen till $1,450-$1,500 but the trend still remains bearish with Support at $1,300 (50%
retracement level).
Retracement calculated from bottom of $682.5 to top of $1,920.9.


Commodities I Metals & Energy
April 23, 2013
Sr.Analyst:[email protected]
501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.

Economic data schedule
Date
Country /
Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous
22-Apr USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 18:00 -0.23 0.35 0.76
EUR EZ Consumer Confidence 19:30 -22.3 -24 -23.5
USD Existing Home Sales (m-o-m) 19:30 -0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 7:15 50.5 51.5 51.6
23-Apr EUR German PMI Manufacturing 13:00 49
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services 13:00 50.9
EUR EZ Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 13:30 46.8
EUR EZ Purchasing Manager Index Services 13:30 46.4
EUR EZ Purchasing Manager Index Composite 13:30 46.5
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) 14:00 -1.5bn
USD Markit US PMI Preliminary 18:28
USD House Price Index (m-o-m) 18:30 0.6%
USD New Home Sales (m-o-m) 19:30 -4.6%
24-Apr NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision 2:30 2.5% 2.5%
AUD Consumer Prices Index (q-o-q) 7:00 0.2%
AUD Consumer Prices Index (y-o-y) 7:00 2.2%
EUR German IFO - Business Climate 13:30 106.7
EUR German IFO - Current Assessment 13:30 109.9
EUR German IFO - Expectations 13:30 103.6
USD Durable Goods Orders (m-o-m) 18:00 5.7%
USD Durables Ex Transportation (m-o-m) 18:00 -0.5%
25-Apr GBP Gross Domestic Product (q-o-q) 14:00 -0.3%
GBP Gross Domestic Product (y-o-y) 14:00 0.2%
USD Initial J obless Claims 18:00 346k
26-Apr J PY Nomura/J MMA Manufacturing PMI 4:45 50.4
J PY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (y-o-y) 5:00 -0.9%
J PY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (y-o-y) 5:00 -0.3%
J PY National Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 5:00 -0.7%
J PY Bank of J apan Rate Decision 0.1%
J PY Bank of J apan Monetary Policy Statement
J PY
BOJ to Hold Policy Meeting and Release
Outlook Report 8:30
J PY
Bank of J apan Governor Kuroda Holds Post-
Meeting Press Conference 10:00
USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) 18:00 0.4%
USD Personal Consumption 18:00 1.8%
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 18:00 1.0%
USD Core PCE (q-o-q) 18:00 1.0%
USD U. of Michigan Confidence 19:25
22-Apr USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 18:00 0.44
EUR EZ Consumer Confidence 19:30 -23.5
USD Existing Home Sales (m-o-m) 19:30 0.8%
CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 7:15 51.6











Commodities I Metals & Energy
April 23, 2013
Sr.Analyst:[email protected]
501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.

Spreads Global Indices
Commodity Near month 2nd month Close Prev close Markets Close Prev close %Chg
Precious metals Asia
Gold (`/10 gm) 26,363 26,765 402 410 Sensex 19,169.8 19,016.5 0.8
Silver (`/kg) 43,687 44,415 728 755 Nifty 5,834.4 5,783.1 0.9
Nikkie 13,568.4 13,316.5 1.9
Base metals Hang Seng 22,044.4 22,013.6 0.1
Alum. (`/kg) 101.4 102.9 1.50 1.45 Shanghai 2,242.2 2,244.6 (0.1)
Copper (`/kg) 375.0 380.7 5.70 6.40 Straits Times 3,308.9 3,294.1 0.5
Lead (`/kg) 108.1 109.3 1.15 1.00
Nickel (`/kg) 827.2 833.6 6.40 7.40 America
Zinc (`/kg) 100.3 101.8 1.45 1.40 Dow J ones 14,567.2 14,547.5 0.1
Nasdaq 2,810.1 2,780.5 1.1
Energy
Cr. oil (`/bbl) 4,834 4,869 35 36 Europe
Nat.gas (`/mmbtu) 231.0 233.4 2.4 2.2 CAC 3,652.1 3,652.0 0.0
DAX 7,478.1 7,460.0 0.2
National-International price parity FTSE 6,280.6 6,286.6 (0.1)
MCX COMEX Close* Prev close*
INR (`) 54.14 53.898 Arbitrage
Gold 26,363 1,421.20 172.17 232.53 Metals & Oil Close Prev close
Silver 43,687 23.32 260.33 361.97 Lead - Zinc 7.80 8.70
Copper 375.0 3.131 1.30 1.48 Brent - Light sweet 618 597
Crude oil 4,834 89.2 5.43 18.42
*MCX premium/ (discount)

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Note:IdeasgivenundertheCommoditiessectionareforintradaypurposeoruptoaperiodofthreetradingsessions.Recommendationsunderthisheadingarenotnecessarilypartof
ourfundamentalbuyorselllist.