Big Think Strategies - Consultant Paul Budde of Australia
Big Think Strategies - Consultant Paul Budde of Australia
Big Think Strategies - Consultant Paul Budde of Australia
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1
1 Prologue
As noted following the Conclusion, this document reflects extensive review,
analysis and the collective judgment of an international team of leaders in the
communications industries whose experience spans technical, financial, economic
and legal arenas. As such, it is not presented as representative of any one national
government, carrier, academic institution, legal practice or consultancy, but rather as
the collective and agreed upon view of many individuals who remain committed to the
health of the world’s electronic communications infrastructure. This report should
also be read in context of the Big Think strategies:
• Big Think Strategies - Plans for the transition of the US telecoms industry
available at
http://www.budde.com.au/presentations/content/2009_Big_Think_USA_transi
tion_of_telecoms_industry.pdf
• Big Think Strategies - Costings and open network issues in relation to FttH
deployments available at
www.budde.com.au/presentations/content/2009_Big_Think_FttH_costings.pdf
2 Executive Summary.
The ARRA bill clearly states that both the Department of Agriculture’s Rural
Utilities Service (RUS) loan/grant program and the Department of Commerce
Broadband Technology Opportunity Program (BTOP) grant program are encouraged
to define and include "open access" provisions. These principles are based upon the
foundational premise that public interest is served when those who use networks –
end users – are empowered to make the maximum economic use of available
technology rates reflecting sufficiently competitive markets.
As recent electoral events have shown, however, sometimes the most radical
imaginable change comes not from inventing new principles or doctrines, but rather
simply from – at last – putting long-standing principles into practice.
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requires active regulation in some spheres and that invoking the concepts of “market
forces” and “private sector choices” as magic talismans can (as we have seen in the
financial sector) lead to serious harm.
If the ARRA funds are utilized to build open networks, we believe that the
promise of open networks can be studied and understood within the US. This would
be the beginning of the development of true open broadband networks in the US and
encourage the new administration to expand and catalyse open network provisioning
nationwide. More fundamentally, though, no significant communications network (in
the US or elsewhere) is or can be entirely “private.” The basic infrastructure of these
networks occupies scarce public rights of way, makes use of public airwaves, or both.
We therefore believe that the US should – indeed, in the long run, must – require that
all publicly available communications networks embrace and operate in conformity
with the basic principles of openness that have underlay US communications policy
for decades and that have only recently been set aside.
3 Open Networks.
Like the fabled beggar who had sat on a box for 30 years only to one day
discover that inside it was a fortune in gold, policy makers need to examine the
potential already contained but not yet realized in America’s telecoms infrastructure.
During the past eight years the nation pursued a policy direction that assumed closing
networks – mostly by removing requirements to keep them open – would increase
economic output and overall business value. As a result, the market has consolidated
and innovation in communications has lagged. Broadly speaking there are four
reasons that it is important – indeed, critical – to insist that communications networks
be open.
First, communications networks are, from one perspective, the most basic and
profound aspects of a nation’s infrastructure. Nearly everything else that happens in
society depends on communications. Education, commerce, culture – all depend on
communications among a nation’s citizens. The notion that a private entity seeking
private gain should be able to constrain, control, shape, or interfere with such
communications should, upon reflection, generate deep concern, if not outright horror.
The right of people to communicate with each other when, what, and how they choose
is a fundamental human right. Obviously the means of communication will not
necessarily be “free” in the sense of “without charge” – providing communications
uses resources which must be paid for, one way or another – but at a high level it
seems anathema to a truly free society that people should ever be charged more than
the cost of the actual resources actually used to make communications possible. So
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Second, even from a narrower, purely economic perspective, open networks are
certain to deliver better overall economic performance than any sort of closed or
restricted network. For businesses, communications – whether with customers,
suppliers, or internally – is a cost. The cheaper and easier it is to communicate, the
more effectively the business will operate. Note that this point is not limited to voice
communications. Innovative fleet management, inventory management, customer
relations management, and other business operations often require sophisticated and
efficient data communications between a company’s headquarters and various far-
flung personnel and locations. For example, the capability now offered by firms such
as Federal Express and UPS to track the status of specific packages online is the result
of a combination of sophisticated computing and communications technologies –
from the handheld scanners that swipe the bar-codes on individual packages to the
radio links that connect those scanners with a central database to the Internet
connectivity that allows shippers to access that database anywhere in the world.
Allowing network operators to restrict the use of their networks or to impose
discriminatory fees or conditions designed to “encourage” businesses to use a network
operator’s own services will necessarily impose costs on, and degrade the efficiency
of, the businesses that use communications networks. Again, obviously businesses
may be expected to pay a fair price for the resources they actually use when they
invoke the capabilities of one or more communications networks. But allowing a
network operator to limit or degrade those capabilities, or to impose excessive fees for
their use, is simply granting to the network operator the power to tax and to indirectly
regulate the businesses using the network. Requiring openness from network
operators will redound to the benefit of essentially the entire economy.
Third, in the modern “information age” many businesses are entirely based
upon communications. These are businesses that sell knowledge, entertainment, and
information rather than, or mainly rather than, physical products. The inventive spirit
of millions of American entrepreneurs is much more likely to come up with the Next
Big Thing in the realm of communications-based products – not to mention hundreds
if not thousands of Next Pretty-Big Things, and Next Small-But-Useful Things – than
are the employees of a handful of large network operators. This is not by any means
to denigrate the intelligence and inventiveness of those who work for large network
operators, nor to denigrate the impressive financial resources those operators can
bring to bear. It is simply to recognize the point that, no matter how good those
employees are, the overwhelming majority of smart, inventive, capable people do not
work for those entities. Open networks – that is, in this case, networks that allow any
non-harmful application to run, and any non-harmful devices to be attached and used
– provide the fertile ground needed for the ideas produced by those smart, inventive,
capable people to grow. If the network operators view themselves as permitted to
prefer some applications and some devices over others – that is, to prefer the ones
they invent and for which they can charge the most profitable rates – the inevitable
effect will be a steady, corrosive degradation in the ability of American business to
improve productivity, deliver new and innovative goods and services to the public,
and compete with businesses elsewhere.
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Fourth, even looking purely within the market for network services, openness
makes sense. As we alluded to earlier, network operators’ natural capitalistic instincts
will be to try to identify and charge more for those communications that users view as
high-value and to steer users towards the network operators’ own “enhanced” or
“vertical” services rather than those of competitors or of the users’ own devise. While
not as blatant or obvious an exploitation of monopoly power as refusing to
interconnect with a small competitor or blatantly overcharging for a basic service,
these practices are, at bottom, a form of exploitation of monopoly power over a key
social and economic resource. It has been commonplace regulatory doctrine for more
than a century that regulation is needed to prevent a monopolist from exploiting its
market power to the detriment of consumers and competitors. Even if one believes
(which we do not) that it is theoretically possible for there to be a robust competitive
market among multiple facilities-based providers of broadband communications
networks, no one could seriously assert that such competition exists today. So
regulation – including regulation requiring open networks – is clearly necessary
today, simply to prevent existing network operators from exploiting consumers.
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Note also that, while the authors of this report generally favor some form of
so-called “network neutrality,” we do not believe that the communications
infrastructure should be limited to providing a single undifferentiated “transmission”
capability. To the contrary, the topology and the architecture of the open network
should be such that infrastructure, service and content providers all can also offer
higher quality and different ‘premium’ products and services. Similar structures exist
elsewhere – public health and private health, public education and private education,
public and private transport, tollways, and so on. While this might stir up the net
neutrality debate, it must be clear that the basic national high-speed broadband service
should be defined at such levels as to provide sufficient quality to satisfy the people
who are using it. This will also change over time – as with other public services, what
was seen as a good service ten years ago will require a review every to make sure it
still meets the expectations of the users today.
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As noted above, one of the basic parameters that makes a network “open” in
our view is the fact that the network is interconnected with other networks. One can
imagine a world in which all communications networks were, in effect, nationalized –
provided on an end-to-end basis by the government. We have no strong objection to
the notion of the government owning and operating infrastructure – indeed,
governmental units in the US today typically provide roads, water and sewer service,
airports, as well as a great deal of gas, electricity, and health care. But obviously
today in America the overwhelming majority of communications networks, by any
measure, are privately owned. There is no single integrated national “network.” There
are, instead, a multiplicity of local landline networks, intercity fiber networks,
wireless networks, cable networks, satellite-based networks, and so on. Each of these
networks occupies public space in some regard, and is thus “public property” yet is
privately constructed and operated. Constructed out of and grafted onto these diverse
networks are innumerable truly private networks – ranging from in-home connections
between a few computers and printers to internal corporate communications networks
that literally span the globe.
1
Gresham’s Law says that “the bad money drives out the good.” Back when coins were made
of gold or silver and were therefore actual stores of value, people would shave small amounts of metal
from a coin and horde it, while passing the coin on as supposedly of full value. Once this process
begins, everyone has an incentive to remove any unadulterated coins from circulation and instead only
circulate the shaved, damaged coinage. The “bad money” drives the good from circulation. See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham's_law.
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That said, once the basis for open networks is in place, we are convinced that
commercial structures will be built without too much regulatory interference. This
results from a simple and obvious fact that to the extent the underlying physical plant
occupying public property is operated in ways that always align its interests with
public property, there will be no internal contradiction of purpose: operating private
facilities using public resources where there are massive barriers to the public’s
replication of those private facilities. In other words, once the property interests of
the underlying infrastructure provider are aligned with the nature of the property it
uses, the resulting technological and economic of such open networks, will be as rich
and varied as the use of any other reasonably aligned public infrastructure – whether a
bridge, road, reservoir, water system, and so on.
For this to happen, however, there needs to be some sort of fixed, reasonable
pricing on backhaul/middle mile costs to an upstream Internet access point. In such an
infrastructure more and different ‘meet-me-points’ can be created with others (telcos,
Internet Service Providers, Application Service Providers, Cloud Computing, WISPs,
media companies and other content providers, health and education organisations) to
link their network, data center, content hosting, healthcare, education and other
facilities. To make it even more cost effective, municipalities in rural areas could
assist by making ‘commons’ available within public facilities. In order for this to
work, you need a map of the entire infrastructure. A good example here is the telco
infrastructure mapping done in New Zealand and available on the Internet.
Once the vertical systems are broken down, it logically follows that separated
infrastructure companies will seek to cooperatively utilize and empower other existing
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We have been quick to criticize those who believe that the free market can
magically solve the problem of delivering an appropriate open broadband
infrastructure, because whatever the free market might be able to do in theory,
conditions in the real world do not allow those results to actually come to fruition. Of
course the same is true to some extent for a solution based on regulation. What
regulation can do in theory is not at all the same of what regulation can accomplish in
practice. It is therefore important that any regulatory solution take account of, and
minimize, the amount of actual regulatory activity that is required, and the amount of
knowledge that regulators must possess in order to achieve reasonably optimal results.
One possibility for avoiding this is simply to ban network operators – those
controlling physical transmission infrastructure – from offering vertical services at all.
This was the basic approach of the FCC’s old Computer II rules. We would not
oppose returning to such a regime for all network providers. If that is not politically
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achievable, however, then at a minimum, a few key rules should be laid down that
would apply to all facilities-based communications networks, whether landline
(fiber/copper/coax) or wireless. These rules would then, as need be, be enforced on a
case-by-case basis. We suggest the following as a starting point:
3. Each network operator that offers services other than pure transmission
(“vertical services”) must offer, on an unbundled basis, each network capability,
feature, or function that the network operator uses as inputs to its own vertical
services.
We believe that these five simple rules will be sufficient to resolve the
overwhelming majority of possible disputes among network operators or between a
network operator and a user. How these rules apply in particular cases cannot be
specified with precision in advance. Indeed, we believe that going down the path of
trying to specify all possible applications of these rules in advance is, essentially, a
fool’s errand, and may indeed be a rhetorical and political trap that network operators
resisting a requirement of openness will from time to time set for those supporting it.
After the initial regulations have been set up for the establishment of open
networks, we should step back and identify the bottlenecks and where infrastructure is
missing or upgrades are needed that will not take place without government funding.
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With the vertical business structure gone, infrastructure operators will become
far more prepared to cooperate and investigate how to interconnect with other
infrastructure, rather than to continue with the ‘overbuild-at-all-costs’ scenarios they
sometimes indulge in under the vertically-integrated model. Vertically-integrated
networks are more expensive to develop and less likely to run as open networks.
Obviously this infrastructure will require good governance, both on a regulatory and a
technical level, and a workable policy can only be implemented if open networks are
applied across the full national telecom infrastructure. By removing the economically
unviable competition elements from at least the basic national infrastructure, we
should be able to get really good cooperation between the infrastructure players. This
allows for their key engineers to take a more independent role and, as such, they
should be able to govern the technology, security, reliability, provisioning, IP
evolution, investments, etc.
Open networks extend the economic feasibility for infrastructure projects that
were infeasible under the vertical structures in the industry. Once these structures are
dismantled, only the infrastructure projects that are not otherwise economically
feasible will need government funding.
Under the current vertical integrated structure, some parts of the current network
might not be economically viable based on the ROI required by the incumbents and/or
the technologies/systems/structures used by them. Note that the costs of incumbents
are at least 30% higher than those of “lean and mean” infrastructure builders.
If the regulations are changed so that more elements of the network become
economically viable (see also our report plans for the transition of the US telecom
industry), less government funding will be required. The remaining network elements
would require government funding. We are only talking about infrastructure as once
the correct regulations are in place -- the services that run over them should be self-
sustainable once the extra costs of closed infrastructure are removed from the
equation. This is totally in line with the NTIA and RUS statues indicating that they
will give priority to projects that would not be viable but for the grant, but will be
viable after the one-time infusion of capital from the grant.
The social value of properly regulated open networks is more than the market
will capture from the current closed networks. Any further investments in closed
networks, any subsidies under the Economic Stimulus package in these closed
networks is not going to provide the social and economic benefits that can be
delivered though open networks.
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efficient network than those built by individual entities. (Please note the stress on
‘rational’. Networks are rarely well-designed when the goal is to protect an
infrastructure monopoly, or when rates of return are guaranteed with public funding.)
The position of the French regulator, ARCEP, is crucial for the country’s
future fiber projects. Essentially, operators are prepared to fund fiber installations in
the centers of major cities, but to forestall geographic monopolies (and to allow
individuals and business to choose their provider) sharing among operators will be
required. The regulator has mandated access to rights of way, poles, ducts, and
existing sheaths, and on the sharing of the terminal part of fiber networks. It has
developed a fiber framework which applies symmetric regulation to all operators –
whoever is first to construct within a building is required to provide shared access to
competitors. Inter-connection also ensures ‘any-to-any connectivity’, while pricing is
also regulated.
Paris represents one of the largest fiber deployments in Europe, with the
involvement of France Telecom, neuf Cegetel and Iliad. Legislation provides public
authorities the right to build, subsidise and develop passive telecom infrastructure and
transfer them to carriers or independent local users, build open networks, operate open
telecom networks and provide telecom services to end users.
France is one of the top three countries in Europe for fiber deployment, and
the regulator’s equal access approach will ensure that by 2012 the country will have
more fiber subscribers than any other EU member state. France Telecom expected to
sign up 180,000 customers by the end of 2008, out of a potential client base of one
million, using Gigabit PON (GPON) technology. In contrast to Deutsche Telekom,
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eircom, KPN and Swisscom which are deploying FttC networks with VDSL2 serving
the last mile, France Telecom is the only incumbent carrier in Europe that is
deploying FttH on any meaningful scale.
Table 1 – Free projections – Paris fiber 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014
Market Market share Subscribers
Year
penetration
2006 50% 27% 754,000
2008 66% 29% 995,000
2010 79% 31% 1,231,000
2012 91% 33% 1,320,000
2014 102% 33% 1,320,000
(Source: BuddeComm based on JPMorgan estimates)
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4.2 Sweden
Sweden is one of the world’s leading countries for fiber deployment, largely
due to the population density in a small geographical area more than 50% of the
country’s workforce lives within the three main cities, many in apartment buildings.
The country was the first in the EU to develop widespread local access fiber
infrastructure. Numerous networks open to a range of content and service providers
have been built by organisations other than telcos, including municipalities, regional
governments, housing associations and local utilities. Swedish municipal broadband
has successfully adopted the ‘stadsnätt’ urban area network model, by which a city
builds and administers fiber infrastructure which is then rented at cost price to service
providers which set up their own transmission equipment. In Stockholm more than 30
organisations have built their facilities through the municipality’s open fiber network,
operated by Stokab.
Backbone networks have grown to 13,000km and city and local area networks
have quadrupled in reach since 1999. Bredbandsbolaget, TeliaSonera, PiteEnergi and
Utfors have significant networks in the country. In January 2008 TeliaSonera began
switching on 100Mb/s fiber to customers as part of its commitment to deliver the
service to Sweden’s 15 largest cities, often in partnership with local governments.
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Regulators have also promoted the wholesale access model, used successfully
with DSL networks. Given that a first-entry FttH developer can secure about 70%
market share among passed households, competitors can choose either to build
networks in non-fibred towns or pursue a wholesale agreement with the new local
incumbent.
KPN has also collaborated with existing fiber players in areas it does not
manage its own network. Since October 2007 KPN has collaborated with Reggefiber
to connect residents in Almere with fibre: KPN has encouraged its PSTN customers to
migrate to the Reggefiber network while it positions itself as a non-exclusive service
operator.
4.4 Oceania
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4.5 Singapore
In the meantime the next stage, the process of selecting the wholesale operator
(known as the OpCo), is well underway with the result expected in early 2009. The
government has budgeted S$250 million in funds to support the OpCo. When the
required infrastructure is in place, open access will be assured by structural separation
on the passive infrastructure level and operational separation on the active
infrastructure level. The end result will see national fiber coverage with access speeds
in excess of 50Mb/s uplink and 100Mb/s downlink (OpenNet have promised 1Gb/s),
and competitive pricing on both the wholesale and retail service levels.
5 Other points
Finally, we note that in some cases users have been so desperate to have
broadband connectivity that they have been willing to take matters into their own
hands with regard to funding and even in some cases construction. Projects such as
Fiber-to-the Farm in the Netherlands, DIY fiber in Stavanger, Norway and municipal
government networks should be looked at from this perspective. Mesh networks in
wireless broadband – with each node provided by an individual who wants to be part
of the network – would be an even farther step in this direction. This is a totally
different way to finance infrastructure and overcomes the problem of ‘economically
unviable investments’. In our report “Costings and open network issues in relation to
FttH deploymets” we mentioned the report on “Homes with Tails” which also
addresses this issue from that perspective.
6 Action Plan
We believe that our vision of open communications networks is entirely
achievable in the United States.
In the short run, we believe that the new administration should work with
Congress to clearly direct the FCC to require that all communications networks be
operated in a manner consistent with the principles of openness we have espoused
here. Although we have not attempted to craft any specific legislative or regulatory
language, we believe that the five basic rules specified above could form the basis of a
modification of the Communications Act that could then be enforced by the FCC.
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Indeed, the FCC itself could adopt these five rules as its own and begin to apply them
to existing networks. At a minimum, Congress should require that networks that
receive public funding, whether under the currently pending stimulus package or
otherwise, must adhere to these principles.
An interesting side effect of open networks is that, once these are in place, you
can virtually throw away most of the industry-specific telecom regulations. Telcos
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will still have the right under an open network policy to properly manage these
networks in order to prevent abusive usage.
It is estimated that around one million companies worldwide now rely on the
Internet economy for more than 50% of their revenue. This group of companies is
growing at a rate of 20-30% per annum – imagine what that will to do the local
economies!
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