Constellation Software Inc.: A. Historical Figures Restated To Comply With Revised Definition
Constellation Software Inc.: A. Historical Figures Restated To Comply With Revised Definition
Constellation Software Inc.: A. Historical Figures Restated To Comply With Revised Definition
TO OUR SHAREHOLDERS
In Table 1, we've updated the Constellation Software Inc. (CSI) metrics with the 2013 results. Weve
shortened up the period presented to 10 years. A long term review is worthwhile, but CSI is a much
larger business than it was 10 years ago, so it is easy to question the relevance of the older data. The
definitions of Adjusted net income (ANI), Average Invested Capital, ROIC, Net Revenue and
Maintenance Revenue appear in the Glossary at the end of this document. Unless otherwise indicated, all
dollar amounts are expressed in U.S. dollars. Several of the statements included below constitute forward
looking statements and should not be read as guarantees of future results. See Forward Looking
Statements.
ANI increased 20% in 2013. Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (see Table 3) grew far faster,
so we were less concerned with quality of earnings than we were in 2012. The shareholders Average
Invested Capital grew 19%. This was insufficient to finance the acquisitions that we made, so we
resorted to using increasing amounts of bank debt - more about this later. The high ROIC achieved over
the last decade suggests that we have very good businesses. If ROIC starts to erode significantly, then
either weve damaged our existing businesses, or our new acquisitions are less attractive than those that
we have made in the past. ROIC isnt one of those metrics that is necessarily subject to reversion to the
mean. Some businesses seem to be able to widen their moats at reasonable cost.
Organic Net Revenue Growth and Organic Maintenance Revenue Growth (see Table 2) are good cross-
checks of our business health. You cant easily get this information from audited financial statements.
CSIs Organic Net Revenue Growth was 4% in 2013, below our long-term average but better than GNP.
Wed like our Organic Net Revenue Growth to be slightly higher. Growing organically while generating a
high ROIC is, to my mind, the toughest task in the software business.
We achieved a near-record combined ratio (the sum of ROIC and Organic Net Revenue Growth) of 39%
in 2013. If we had to pick a single metric to reflect the performance of our businesses, this is the one that
wed choose.
Adjusted Net
Income (a.)
Average Invested
Capital
ROIC
Organic Net
Revenue Growth
(YoY)
ROIC + Organic
Net Revenue
Growth
2004 13 84 15% 9% 24%
2005 17 101 17% 18% 35%
2006 26 123 21% 8% 29%
2007 33 154 22% 1% 23%
2008 54 195 28% 5% 33%
2009 62 256 24% -3% 21%
2010 84 325 26% -2% 24%
2011 140 394 36% 7% 43%
2012 172 491 35% 2% 37%
2013 207 585 35% 4% 39%
a. Historical figures restated to comply with revised definition.
Note: 2010 and subsequent year information is presented in accordance with IFRS
Table 1
Maintenance Revenue grew an impressive 42% in 2013. We wouldnt want to do that every year. Growth
in Maintenance Revenue due to acquisitions was 34%, and acquiring that maintenance revenue consumed
all of our free cash flow for the year, and then some. As of March 31
st
2014 we had $485 million
outstanding on our debt facilities. We continue to seek longer-term capital to defuse the fundamental
mismatch inherent in buying permanent assets with short-term debt. We have not dismissed the idea of
cutting the dividend should other attractive sources of capital not be available.
The Total Organic Growth in Maintenance Revenue was 8% in 2013, a slight increase from 2012. Our
favourite businesses are those that are growing just slightly faster than their markets, gradually adding
market share and customer share (i.e. share of wallet), while generating a good return on the capital that
they have invested to produce organic growth. Small market share gains are much less likely to trigger a
scorched earth competitive response that erodes pricing and triggers wildly unproductive R&D and S&M
binges. We believe that we have struck that balance at many of our businesses.
Attrition increased in 2013, up more than 1% during the year, but as you can see in Table 2, this was more
than offset by organic increases in Maintenance. That is encouraging, but bears monitoring. Over the last
few years we have purchased a number of software businesses (usually SaaS) that have a much higher
churn in their client bases because of factors inherent in their industry. By high churn, we mean that
they acquire a greater proportion of new clients each year, and lose a higher percentage of existing
accounts, than our average business. Sometimes the higher churn is because the clients switching costs
are low. Sometimes the higher churn is because lots of new potential clients are being created, and old
ones are going bankrupt and merging. If it is the latter, these software businesses may be very attractive.
If it is the former, then the software businesses are likely to be unpleasant, requiring tremendous effort to
stay in much the same place. When we analyse the attrition and customer acquisition economics at the
individual business unit level, the jury is still out on whether our high churn businesses are as attractive as
our low churn businesses.
A note of caution with regard to the organic and acquired Maintenance Revenue growth numbers while
the analysis in Table 2 is materially the same as our reported Maintenance Revenue for financial reporting
purposes, the individual components reflected in this table are generated by examining and categorising
thousands of records. This analysis isn't perfect, but we believe it is a fair illustration of the trends in our
maintenance base and, ultimately, the trends underlying the intrinsic value of our business.
A few years ago we added some GAAP/IFRS metrics to our regular letters to shareholders. We've
updated them in Table 3.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Maintenance Revenue (US$MM) 116 148 193 252 337 417 510 725
Growth from:
Acquisitions 17% 11% 21% 27% 26% 15% 15% 34%
Organic Sources
a) New maintenance 15% 9% 9% 7% 8% 8% 8% 10%
b) Price increases 5% 8% 8% 3% 6% 6% 5% 5%
c) Attrition - Lost Modules -2% -2% -3% -3% -3% -2% -2% -2%
d) Attrition - Lost Customers -4% -4% -4% -4% -4% -3% -4% -5%
Total Organic Growth 14% 11% 10% 3% 8% 9% 7% 8%
Total Maintenance Growth 31% 23% 31% 31% 34% 24% 22% 42%
Table 2
In 2013, revenue per share increased 36% and Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share
(CFO/Shr) increased 52%. We dont aspire to grow revenue per share at this sort of rate in the future.
The growth in 2013 CFO/Shr was wonderful, but really reflects a catch up after a very disappointing
2012.
Having had the chance to review the tables, we hope you'll join us in thanking the CSI employees for a
wonderful decade.
Ideally, wed like CSIs stock price to appreciate in tandem with our fundamental economics. At any
point in time, wed prefer the price to be high enough to discourage a takeover bid and low enough so that
our sophisticated long term oriented investors are not tempted to sell. It takes lots of time and effort to
attract and educate competent shareholder/partners. The last thing we want them to do, is sell.
If a stock is over-priced and sophisticated investors sell, they are generally replaced by unsophisticated
investors who are ultimately disappointed. This may lead to a stock price that over-corrects and in turn
precipitate either a takeover bid, or more insidiously, a significant and predatory share buyback.
Buybacks are tempting to management and boards: they tend to improve the lot of managers and insiders,
while being applauded by the business press. I think they are frequently a tolerated but inappropriate
instance of buying based upon insider information. Instead of shareholders being partners, they become
prey.
In addition to our long term sophisticated investors, we also have a second constituency of less financially
oriented long-term investors, including some of our employee shareholders. Our employee bonus plan
requires that all employees who make more than a threshold level of compensation invest in CSI shares
and hold those shares for an average of at least 4 years. In practice, their average hold period has been
much longer. We feel an enormous obligation to protect our non-professional investor constituency. One
way we can do that is by trying to making sure that the stock price stays in a fair range at all times.
Total
Share Count
(000's)
YoY
YoY