Open Market Operations in The 1990s
Open Market Operations in The 1990s
Open Market Operations in The 1990s
Open market operations are a powerful tool in imple- 2. Federal funds lending is not collateralized; therefore, different
depository institutions pay different rates for loans depending on their
menting monetary policy because of their connection creditworthiness. Depository institutions can arrange transactions
with the total supply of balances at the Federal directly between themselves, or for large transactions they can use a
Reserve and the federal funds rate. Many depository federal funds broker. Typically, the term ‘‘federal funds rate’’ refers to
the rate at which the most creditworthy institutions borrow and lend
balances in the brokered market.
1. The other tools of monetary policy are reserve requirements and 3. Detailed discussions of the history of monetary policy can be
the discount window, the Federal Reserve’s lending facility. See found in Ann-Marie Meulendyke, U.S. Monetary Policy and Financial
Joshua N. Feinman, ‘‘Reserve Requirements: History, Current Prac- Markets (New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1989),
tice, and Potential Reform,’’ Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 79 pp. 18–47, and in Ann-Marie Meulendyke, ‘‘A Review of Federal
(June 1993), pp. 569–89, and James A. Clouse, ‘‘Recent Develop- Reserve Policy Targets and Operating Guides in Recent Decades,’’
ments in Discount Window Policy,’’ Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 80 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol. 13
(November 1994), pp. 965–77. (Autumn 1988), pp. 6–17.
860 Federal Reserve Bulletin November 1997
During most of the 1970s, it targeted the federal Under this approach, market interest rates varied over
funds rate. In October 1979, at a time when anti- a wide range, mainly in response to deviations in M1
inflationary restraint was called for, it began instead growth from the FOMC’s objective.
to target the quantity of reserves—specifically, non- By late 1982, it had become clear that financial
borrowed reserves—to achieve greater control over innovation had weakened the historical link between
M1, the narrowest measure of the money stock. M1 and the economic objectives of monetary policy,
Open Market Operations in the 1990s 861
and the FOMC began to make more discretionary remaining need for reserves by borrowing at the
decisions about money market conditions, using a discount window. The total amount borrowed is lim-
wider array of economic and financial variables to ited, however, even though the discount rate is gener-
judge the need for an adjustment in short-term inter- ally below the federal funds rate, because access to
est rates. In the day-to-day conduct of open market discount window credit is restricted. In particular,
operations, this change was manifested in a shift of depository institutions are required to pursue all other
focus from a nonborrowed reserve target to a bor- reasonably available sources of funds, including those
rowed reserve target. The Federal Reserve routinely available in the federal funds market, before credit is
supplies fewer reserves than the estimated demand, granted. During the time it was targeting borrowed
thus forcing depository institutions to meet their reserves, the Federal Reserve influenced the level of
862 Federal Reserve Bulletin November 1997
the federal funds rate by controlling the extent to the seller’s depository institution at the Federal
which depository institutions had to turn to the dis- Reserve. Conversely, sales of securities decrease the
count window. When it wanted to ease monetary quantity of Federal Reserve balances because the
policy, it would reduce the borrowed reserve target Federal Reserve extinguishes balances when it debits
and supply more nonborrowed reserves to meet esti- the account of the purchaser’s depository institution
mated demand. With less pressure to borrow from the at the Federal Reserve. In contrast, when financial
discount window, depository institutions would bid institutions, business firms, or individuals conduct
less aggressively for reserve balances at the Federal transactions among themselves, they simply redistrib-
Reserve, and the federal funds rate would fall. ute existing balances held at the Federal Reserve
Beginning in the mid-1980s, spreading doubts without changing the aggregate level of those
about the financial health of some depository institu- balances.5
tions led to an increasing reluctance on the part of
many institutions to borrow at the discount window,
thus weakening the link between borrowing and the Domestic Securities Holdings
federal funds rate.4 Consequently, the Federal
Reserve increasingly sought to attain a specific level Open market operations are arranged by the Domes-
of the federal funds rate rather than a targeted quan- tic Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of
tity of borrowed reserves. New York (the Desk) under authorization from the
In early 1994, the FOMC was preparing to tighten FOMC, which was created by statute to direct open
monetary policy for the first time in five years, and it market operations. Operations are conducted in
wanted the public to understand its objectives as domestic securities, primarily U.S. Treasury and
quickly and clearly as possible. For many years, the federal agency securities.6 Nearly all of the Federal
FOMC did not announce changes in the stance of Reserve’s domestic securities holdings are Treasury
monetary policy. Instead, market participants had to securities, with roughly equal shares of Treasury bills
infer changes from the type of open market operation and Treasury coupon securities—notes and bonds
conducted and the level of the federal funds rate (table 1). Federal agency securities have accounted
relative to their perceptions about the FOMC’s target for only a small proportion of the domestic securities
rate. The perceived change would then be publicized portfolio since the Federal Reserve began purchasing
through wire service stories and other press accounts. such securities in 1971. The Desk has not added to
This means of communicating could, and on a few the Federal Reserve’s permanent holdings of agency
occasions did, lead to misunderstandings about the securities through open market purchases since 1981;
stance of policy or to delays in recognizing changes. moreover, when suitable replacements for maturing
As a result, the FOMC in 1994 began announcing issues have not been offered, the Desk has had to
changes in its policy stance, so that the public would allow existing holdings to mature without replace-
learn of any change immediately. In 1995, it sought ment. As a result, the Federal Reserve’s holdings of
to make its announcements even clearer by explicitly federal agency securities have declined steadily, and
stating its short-term objective for open market opera- recently the Desk stated that it will permit the remain-
tions, which is currently a target level for the federal der of these holdings to mature without replacement.
funds rate. It continues, however, to acquire agency securities in
temporary operations, which are discussed below.
OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS: AN OVERVIEW 5. More detailed discussions of open market operations can be
found in Meulendyke, U.S. Monetary Policy and Financial Markets,
Open market operations affect the supply of Federal and in M.A. Akhtar, Understanding Open Market Operations
(New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1997).
Reserve balances to depository institutions. Purchases 6. The Desk is also authorized to conduct limited operations in
of securities increase the quantity of Federal Reserve bankers’ acceptances, and it was very active in that market until 1977,
balances because the Federal Reserve creates the when the FOMC decided to discontinue outright purchases under
ordinary circumstances. Outright transactions in bankers’ acceptances
balances to pay the seller by crediting the account of had not contributed materially to meeting reserve needs for a number
of years, and the FOMC noted that the market had become mature and
efficient and no longer needed support from Federal Reserve opera-
tions. Similar motivations prompted the FOMC to discontinue tempo-
4. See Clouse, ‘‘Recent Developments in Discount Window Pol- rary purchases of bankers’ acceptances in 1984.
icy.’’ See also ‘‘Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations during The Federal Reserve also holds securities denominated in foreign
1988,’’ Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol. 14 currencies. Purchases and sales of these securities are not considered
(Winter–Spring 1989), pp. 83–102. open market operations.
Open Market Operations in the 1990s 863
1. Federal Reserve holdings of U.S. Treasury and federal 2. Average maturity of marketable U.S. Treasury securities,
agency securities, September 24, 1997 selected years, 1975–97
Billions of dollars Months
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 63
The overall size of the Federal Reserve’s portfolio 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 63
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 64
of domestic securities is dictated by the FOMC’s
monetary policy objectives. The liquidity and matu- Note. End-of-year data except 1997; for 1997, end-of-June data. Federal
Reserve holdings exclude the effects of securities acquired and sold in
rity of that portfolio depend on the FOMC’s prefer- temporary transactions.
ences, which have evolved over time. In the early Source. Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Treasury Bulletin.
The first step in estimating the need for open market opera- equation is used to construct the nonborrowed reserve
tions is constructing the nonborrowed reserve objective. objective. For example, if required reserves are estimated at
Rearranging the equation that defines reserve concepts, $47.5 billion, the demand for excess reserves is assumed
to be $1 billion, and borrowed reserves are estimated at
NBR = RR + ER − BR.
$0.4 billion, then the nonborrowed reserve objective for the
The demand for required reserves (RR) is estimated by staff period is $48.1 billion.
at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the Board The second step is forecasting the supply of nonborrowed
of Governors on the basis of data on deposits reported by reserves in the absence of any additional open market
depository institutions. The Desk assumes that the demand operations over the remainder of the maintenance period.
for excess reserves (ER) will be $1 billion, but it sometimes These forecasts, which are provided to the Desk by staff at
adjusts that figure as the maintenance period progresses on the New York Reserve Bank and the Board, include an
the basis of econometric models and data on holdings of estimate of the amount of vault cash that depository institu-
excess reserves by type of depository institution (for exam- tions will use to meet their reserve requirements.
ple, large banks, small banks, thrift institutions, and U.S. The amount of reserve balances that must be added or
branches of foreign banks). The supply of borrowed drained through open market operations each day, on aver-
reserves (BR) is estimated by the Desk as the amount of age, over the entire reserve maintenance period is the differ-
reserve balances to be supplied through the discount ence between the nonborrowed reserve objective and the
window that is consistent with the difference between the projected supply of nonborrowed reserves. If the projected
discount rate and the FOMC’s target federal funds rate. supply exceeds the objective, the Desk must drain reserve
Most discount window borrowing is done under the sea- balances during the period. If the objective exceeds the
sonal program, and the interest rate charged is a floating, projected supply, the Desk must add reserve balances; for
market-based rate; such borrowing rises in the spring (as example, if the staff estimates that the supply of nonbor-
loans are extended during the planting season), peaks in the rowed reserves is $44.1 billion for the period and the
summer, and tapers off in the fall (as loans are repaid after objective is $48.1 billion, then the Desk needs to add a daily
the harvest). Once these three estimates are available, the average of $4 billion over the maintenance period.
ing the primary dealer system.9 The review prompted primary dealers currently is close to its 1991 level:
the Federal Reserve to establish a more open system Some dealers have been added to the list, while a few
of trading relationships based primarily on the have either exited the business or merged with other
value of the dealers as counterparties for the Federal primary dealers.
Reserve and the Treasury. The Federal Reserve
dropped the market share criterion, which was
viewed by some market participants as a barrier, and THE DAILY CONDUCT
discontinued its dealer surveillance function, in part OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS
to emphasize that the Federal Reserve does not regu-
late primary dealers. As it always has, the Federal
Each morning, the staff at the Domestic Trading
Reserve does require that primary dealers be active
Desk decide whether an open market operation is
and competitive participants in open market opera-
necessary and, if so, whether it should be an outright
tions and that they be consistent and meaningful
or a temporary operation.
participants in Treasury auctions. It also requires that
primary dealers meet the capital standards of their
primary regulators rather than a standard set by the
Federal Reserve. In addition, primary dealers must Determining the Need for an Operation
freely and candidly supply the Desk with information
on market activity. The joint agency review also Staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at
prompted the Treasury to change its auction proce- the Board of Governors provide the Desk with esti-
dures, extending to other dealers the privileges once mates of the average supply of and demand for
enjoyed only by primary dealers. The number of reserves for the current two-week reserve mainte-
nance period (and two future periods), along with the
daily estimates that underlie the averages for the
9. The findings of the review are reported in Joint Report on the
Government Securities Market (Washington, D.C.: Government Print- current period. The estimates of period-average
ing Office, January 1992). reserve demand, less an allowance for discount win-
Open Market Operations in the 1990s 865
dow borrowing consistent with the federal funds rate 3. Outright purchases in the market, 1990–97
target, yield an objective for nonborrowed reserves.
Treasury bills Treasury coupon securities
(See box ‘‘Estimating the Need for Open Market
Year Volume Volume
Operations.’’) This objective is modified as the main- Number of (billions of Number of (billions of
market entries market entries
tenance period progresses to incorporate new infor- dollars) dollars)
mation on reserve demand or borrowing. The objec- 1990 ....... 5 16.6 0 . . .
tive is compared with the projected supply of 1991
1992
.......
.......
3
3
8.1
9.7
1
3
2.3
12.3
nonborrowed reserves absent any additional open 1993 ....... 2 8.6 4 16.8
1994 ....... 2 7.7 4 17.0
market operations during the maintenance period.
The difference between the objective and the pro- 1995 . . . . . . . 2 8.2 5 9.1
1996 . . . . . . . 2 9.8 5 7.2
jected supply indicates the amount of reserve bal- 1997 . . . . . . . 1 4.0 13 17.4
ances that must be added or drained each day, on Note. Data for 1997 are through September 24.
average, over the entire maintenance period: If the
objective for nonborrowed reserves exceeds the pro-
jected supply, the Desk needs to add reserve bal- waiting. In November 1995, the Desk changed its
ances; if the projected supply of nonborrowed approach to outright coupon purchases. It now
reserves exceeds the objective, the Desk needs to divides up a purchase of coupon securities, focusing
drain reserve balances. The points during the main- on only a portion of the maturity spectrum rather than
tenance period at which reserve balances are added or on all maturities at once. This approach has further
drained and the types of operations conducted depend decreased the turnaround time for such operations
importantly on the expected duration and daily pat- and has likely resulted in better prices to the Desk.
tern of the reserve need. The Desk still purchases all maturities of Treasury
coupon issues, but it generally spreads its purchases
over several weeks, in keeping with the size of esti-
Outright Operations mated reserve needs. With this new procedure, the
Desk is better able to tailor its purchases to reserve
If staff projections indicate a large and persistent needs. In addition, the operations, which had been
imbalance between reserve demand and supply, say conducted only in the early afternoon, can now be
for a month or more, the Desk may conduct an conducted in the morning as well.
outright purchase or sale of securities. (See box
‘‘Types of Open Market Operations.’’) Such transac-
tions increase or decrease the size of the Federal Temporary Operations
Reserve’s portfolio (and thus add or drain reserve
balances) permanently. The Desk conducts far more If staff projections indicate only a short-lived need
outright purchases than outright sales, primarily to add or drain reserve balances, the Desk usually
because it must offset the reserve drain resulting from conducts a temporary operation. Such operations are
the public’s increasing demand for currency. far more common than outright operations, partly
Before 1995, the Desk entered the market to con- because daily fluctuations in technical factors alter
duct outright operations only a few times each year. It reserve supply (as discussed in the box ‘‘Reserve
would wait until reserve needs were large enough Concepts, Technical Factors, and Required Clearing
to warrant a sizable transaction—on the order of Balances’’). The daily demand for reserves is gener-
$3 billion to $4 billion—in part because such opera- ally assumed to be equal to the period-average level,
tions, especially coupon purchases, were time con- but the figure is informally adjusted on days on
suming. For a coupon purchase, for example, the which reserve demand has historically appeared to be
Desk had to review numerous offers on about two elevated, such as on days on which social security
hundred securities. (The number and volume of out- payments are made. Although reserves are held on a
right purchases in recent years are shown in table 3.) two-week average basis, a large imbalance between
Automation of the bidding process in 1994 decreased demand and supply on any one day may cause the
the time needed to evaluate offers, but dealers still federal funds rate to move significantly away from
had to wait a significant amount of time between the FOMC’s target. Temporary open market opera-
submitting offers and learning whether their offers tions help to offset such large daily imbalances. The
had been accepted. For that reason, dealers, in pricing Desk arranges repurchase agreements to add reserve
their offers, took into account the risk that mar- balances temporarily and matched sale–purchase
ket prices might move adversely while they were transactions to drain reserve balances temporarily.
866 Federal Reserve Bulletin November 1997
Most open market operations are conducted in the market Purchases from and Sales to Foreign and International
with the thirty-nine securities dealers that are designated Accounts. Purchases from and sales to foreign and interna-
‘‘primary dealers;’’ some are conducted with foreign official tional accounts enable the Desk to make small adjustments
and international institutions that maintain accounts at the to the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings without for-
Federal Reserve Bank of New York. All operations in the mally entering the market.2 Purchases from these accounts
market are conducted as auctions, with all primary dealers were fairly common until 1996, when the Desk decided to
invited to bid, and the bidding and bid evaluation processes make most of its purchases in the secondary market from
are now automated. Since January 1997, the Desk has primary dealers so that its operations would be more trans-
reported the par value of each of its open market operations parent. Also, the recent shift to purchasing securities in the
with primary dealers at the conclusion of the operation. market in a particular portion of the maturity spectrum has
given the Desk the flexibility to add to the Federal Reserve’s
portfolio more gradually, thus reducing the need to rely on
Outright Operations transactions with foreign and international accounts for this
The Desk may not add to the Federal Reserve’s holdings of purpose. Sales to these accounts have been infrequent in the
securities by purchasing new securities when they are first 1990s because of the strong demand for currency. The sizes
auctioned because it has no authority to lend directly to the of purchases from and sales to foreign and international
Treasury.1 Therefore, it must make any additions to hold- accounts are not explicitly reported to the public, though
ings through purchases from primary dealers in the second- they can be inferred from changes in the Federal Reserve’s
ary market or directly from foreign official and international holdings of domestic securities.3
institutions. Redemptions. The Desk can choose to reduce the size of
Purchases and Sales in the Market. When purchasing or the Federal Reserve’s holdings by redeeming some of its
selling securities in the secondary market, the Desk enter- maturing securities rather than exchanging all of them for
tains from primary dealers bids on all securities of a particu- new securities. Such an approach makes it possible to
lar type (Treasury bills or Treasury coupon securities) and, reduce the portfolio gradually without formally entering the
for coupon securities, in a particular portion of the maturity market. When replacement securities are not available, the
spectrum. In determining which bids to accept, the Desk Desk must redeem its maturing holdings.
considers the bids that represent the highest yield (for
purchases) or the lowest yield (for sales) relative to the
Temporary Operations
prevailing yield curve. To avoid holding too large a share of
any one issue, the Desk also considers the size of its An operation is temporary if the transaction will, under the
holdings of the particular issue relative to the total amount contract, unwind after a specified number of days. Tempo-
outstanding. rary open market operations help to offset short-lived imbal-
Outright sales in the market are infrequent; the most ances between reserve supply and demand. The Desk
recent one occurred in 1990. For many years, the Desk arranges repurchase agreements to add reserve balances
often sold Treasury bills in late January to absorb a surfeit temporarily and matched sale–purchase transactions to drain
of reserves resulting from seasonal declines in currency reserve balances temporarily.
outstanding and in required reserves. In the 1990s, strong
overseas demand for U.S. currency generally has offset the
2. The price at which these transactions occur is the midpoint between the
seasonal decline in currency outstanding, obviating the need bid and the ask price in the secondary market.
for outright sales. 3. Federal Reserve statistical release H.4.1, Factors Affecting Reserve
Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of F.R. Banks,
which is published each Thursday, provides data on the Federal Reserve’s
domestic securities portfolio and other factors affecting the reserve balances
1. It may exchange its maturing holdings for new securities at auction, of depository institutions. These data are also provided monthly in tables
however, and it does so routinely. 1.11 and 1.18 of the Federal Reserve Bulletin.
For more than seventeen years, the Desk entered casts. Although the market for repurchase agreements
the market to arrange temporary transactions between was somewhat more active earlier in the day, it was
11:30 a.m. and 11:45 a.m. This time was selected usually sufficiently active at this time to accommo-
because it gave staff members at the Board and the date open market operations. Nonetheless, there was
New York Reserve Bank time at the beginning of the a risk that the volume of offers on the operation
business day to assemble data on factors affecting would not be sufficient to allow the Desk to inject the
reserve supply and demand and to make their fore- desired amount of reserve balances into the deposi-
Open Market Operations in the 1990s 867
tory system, particularly when reserve needs were tion time or might preannounce the operation on the
large. At times when the risk was high, the Desk preceding afternoon to try to ensure that the volume
might enter the market before its customary interven- of offers would be adequate.
868 Federal Reserve Bulletin November 1997
In 1994, the Federal Reserve began charging a fee more than once to arrange repurchase agreements on
for daylight overdrafts in depository institutions’ Fed- only two days in the first nine months of 1997.
eral Reserve accounts.10 Securities dealers, who now
faced fees on the daylight overdrafts in their accounts
with depository institutions, began arranging and set- CHANGES IN THE DEMAND FOR BALANCES
tling more of their financing transactions earlier in AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS
the day to reduce their daylight overdrafts. The Desk,
in turn, sought to align its market entry more closely Innovations in the 1990s have reduced required
with the period of greatest market activity, and reserve balances. Although depository institutions
in January 1997, after an acceleration of Federal have increased the amount of balances they contract
Reserve data flows and modifications to processing to hold in the form of required clearing balances,
procedures, it moved its intervention time to around total required balances have dropped to historically
10:30 a.m. low levels. This development has implications for the
Shifts in the short-run target for open market opera- conduct of open market operations and for the federal
tions have influenced the number of times the Desk funds rate.
enters the market each day to conduct temporary
transactions and the role of reserve estimates in deter-
mining the amount of reserve balances to be sup- High Total Required Balances
plied. In the 1970s, when the target was the federal
funds rate, the Desk frequently entered the market Until the early 1990s, depository institution demand
several times a day. Although reserve estimates gen- for balances at the Federal Reserve was high and
erally guided decisions about the quantity of reserve relatively stable. This environment facilitated the
balances to be supplied, the Desk responded to any conduct of open market operations. High required
deviation of the federal funds rate from target, regard- reserves created a stable, predictable demand for
less of the reserve estimates, up until its intervention reserve balances, so the Desk could more readily
window closed in the early afternoon. During the achieve the FOMC’s reserve market objective by
1979–82 period, when the target was nonborrowed manipulating the supply of reserve balances. More-
reserves, the Desk entered the market at most once a over, high required reserve balances and the averag-
day. Estimates of reserve supply and demand were ing method used to satisfy them allowed depository
essential in determining the quantity of reserve bal- institutions to manage their daily account balances
ances to be supplied. At the time of this single market flexibly, thus helping to smooth the federal funds
entry, the Desk typically conducted only one opera- rate.11
tion, although at times it conducted two operations The size of the balance that a depository institution
with different terms, such as four- and seven-day wants to hold at the end of the day in most cases is
repurchase agreements. Since late 1982, as proce- either its required reserve balance (plus perhaps a
dures have evolved and the federal funds rate again desired amount of excess reserves) or the balance it
has become the short-run target for open market chooses to hold to protect itself against unanticipated
operations, the Desk has continued, generally, to enter debits that could leave its account overdrawn at
the market at most once a day to conduct temporary the end of the day—its payment-related demand.
transactions, and at times to conduct two operations When required reserve balances are high relative to
with different terms. Estimates of reserve supply and payment-related balances, depository institutions
demand continue to play a role in determining the have a great deal of flexibility in managing their daily
amount of reserve balances to supply in order to keep account balances because they can substitute a bal-
the federal funds rate close to the FOMC’s target ance held on one day for a balance held on another
level. It is possible that the Desk will enter the market day.12 A depository institution that finds its balance at
several times on any given day when reserve needs the Federal Reserve unexpectedly high on one day
warrant, but multiple market entries are not expected (for instance, because a customer made an unex-
to become routine. The Desk entered the market pected deposit or an expected payment was not made)
does not have to offer to lend the extra balance at 1. Required balances at Federal Reserve Banks, 1984–97
very low rates; it can absorb the surplus by choosing Billions of dollars
to hold lower balances over the remainder of the
period and still meet its balance requirement.13 Hold- Required reserve balances
ing a lower balance on a subsequent day of the period 40
does not necessarily increase the likelihood that the
depository institution will incur an overnight over-
30
draft because its targeted balance is still high relative
to its payment-related demand for balances. This
flexibility in managing account balances buffers 20
Innovations Reducing
Required Reserve Balances
20
Cuts in Reserve Requirement Ratios
Required reserve balances
In the early 1990s, sharp declines in required reserve 10
Required clearing balances
balances followed two cuts in reserve requirement
ratios by the Federal Reserve:14 In December 1990,
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
the ratio for nontransaction deposits was reduced
from 3 percent to zero, and in April 1992, the ratio Note. Maintenance-period averages, not seasonally adjusted; 1997 data
through September 24.
2. Daily change in total volume of credits posted to the Federal Reserve accounts of all depository institutions,
November 1996–January 1997
Billions of dollars
250
+
0
–
250
its targeted balance at the Federal Reserve can vary determinant of the total demand for balances at the
substantially each day as well. Federal Reserve. Data on credits posted to the Fed-
eral Reserve accounts of depository institutions sug-
gest that payment flows are heaviest on the first
Implications for Open Market Operations business day, the fifteenth calendar day, and the last
business day of the month. On these days, depository
The Desk attempts to attain a level of nonborrowed institutions face more uncertainty about their end-of-
reserves over a reserve maintenance period that is day balances. Some depository institutions respond
consistent with the FOMC’s targeted federal funds by targeting a higher balance. The Desk seeks to
rate. When planning open market operations, it has provide balances more generously on these days.
always paid attention to the daily pattern of reserve However, the exact magnitude of payment-related
needs. Now, with total required balances low, the demand is hard to measure and to estimate. More-
daily estimates are playing an even more important over, even if it were to supply a quantity of balances
role in decisionmaking. The Desk now also reviews that exactly matched aggregate demand, the Desk
forecasts of the total amount of balances at the Fed- could not ensure that the supply to each institution
eral Reserve for the day and for future days. During would exactly match its demand. For these reasons,
maintenance periods when total required balances are the federal funds rate may exceed the FOMC’s target
especially low, the Desk conducts open market opera- on these days. Generally, however, the Desk is able to
tions to smooth low points in the estimated daily keep the effective federal funds rate (the volume-
level of total balances. In addition, as it always has, it weighted average rate paid on all transactions during
attempts to supply more reserve balances on days the day) close to the FOMC’s target rate.
when the payment-related demand for balances is
expected to be elevated. These additional consider-
ations have resulted in an increase in the number and 4. Temporary open market operations, 1990–97
volume of overnight repurchase agreements arranged
in 1996 and thus far in 1997 (table 4).23 An overnight Overnight Term Matched
repurchase repurchase sale–purchase
operation is a more effective means of fine tuning the agreements agreements transactions
daily level of balances than is a term or outright Year Number Volume Number Volume Number Volume
of (billions of (billions of (billions
operation and better addresses heightened payment- market of market of market of
related demands. entries dollars) entries dollars) entries dollars)
There is indirect evidence that on certain days 1990 .. 93 253.5 34 136.4 22 76.8
payment-related demand is an especially important 1991 .. 108 320.2 34 188.5 34 78.8
1992 .. 89 254.5 56 278.9 20 28.6
1993 .. 83 266.7 82 361.0 5 10.9
1994 .. 80 217.6 66 257.1 5 13.1
23. An overnight operation matures on the next business day. The 1995 . . 68 206.3 61 248.8 17 48.6
1996 . . 92 347.5 70 250.3 23 52.9
increased use of overnight repurchase agreements is also discussed in 1997 . . 91 351.5 59 296.5 0 . . .
‘‘Open Market Operations during 1996,’’ Federal Reserve Bulletin,
vol. 83 (July 1997), pp. 565–74. Note. Data for 1997 are through September 24.
Open Market Operations in the 1990s 873
Implications for the Federal Funds Rate bid the funds rate to very high levels rather than
borrow at the window.25
Low total required balances, together with the diffi- The level at which total required balances can
culty of gauging the size of payment-related demand, trigger a rise in funds rate volatility is not clear. Since
can lead to greater volatility in the federal funds rate, late 1996, for example, total required balances have
both during a day and across days.24 For example, been below their 1991 levels, yet funds rate volatility
the 1990 cut in reserve requirement ratios brought has failed to rise significantly.26 Apparently, total
required reserve balances below the payment-related required balances are sufficiently above the payment-
demand for balances, and funds rate volatility rose related demand for balances to keep the funds rate
significantly (chart 3). The time between the announce- relatively stable. The payment-related demand for
ment and implementation of the cut was quite short. balances is likely lower now than it was in 1991.
Many large depository institutions had no experience Depository institutions have improved their own
managing their end-of-day balances at the Federal internal information systems as well as their profi-
Reserve with total required balances as low as they ciency in using real-time information on the balances
were after the cut. Depository institutions responded in their Federal Reserve accounts available through
by holding on to their balances until late in the day, the Federal Reserve’s Account Balance Monitoring
when their need for balances to avoid an overnight System. In addition, the imposition of fees for day-
overdraft became clearer. The funds rate would light overdrafts has encouraged depository institu-
remain above the FOMC’s target until that time, and tions to manage their balances more closely during
then, when depository institutions entered the market the day. In the future, the payment-related demand
to try to lend their excess balances, it would drop for balances may continue to fall. Interstate branch
sharply. At the same time, the acute reluctance of banking may contribute to lower payment-related
depository institutions to borrow at the discount win- demand because separately chartered affiliate banks
dow also contributed to the volatility. On days when of a single bank holding company are being merged
balances were in short supply, depository institutions into a single interstate branched bank with one Fed-
25. Some of the bidding pressure also came from depository insti-
24. See James A. Clouse and Douglas W. Elmendorf, ‘‘Declining tutions that apparently had little or no collateral on deposit with
Required Reserves and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate,’’ a Federal Reserve Bank and therefore could not borrow readily.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series Paper 1997-30 (Board of See ‘‘Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations during 1990,’’
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Divisions of Research and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, vol. 16
Statistics and Monetary Affairs, June 1997). The authors present a (Spring 1991), pp. 52–78.
model of a depository institution’s demand for balances that distin- 26. See also Paul Bennett and Spence Hilton, ‘‘Falling Reserve
guishes requirement-related demand from payment-related demand. Balances and the Federal Funds Rate,’’ Federal Reserve Bank of
They also explore the differing behavior of the funds rate in 1991 and New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance, vol. 3
1996. (April 1997), pp. 1–6.
3. Daily range for the federal funds rate, November 1990–April 1991
Percent
100 90
Daily high 35
Effective rate
Daily low 30
25
20
15
10
11/28/90 12/12/90 12/26/90 1/9/91 1/23/91 2/6/91 2/20/91 3/6/91 3/20/91 4/3/91
Note. Effective rate is the volume-weighted average rate paid on all transactions during the day.
874 Federal Reserve Bulletin November 1997
5. Daily average volatility of the federal funds rate, ances to the point that payment-related demand is
1994–97 routinely larger than requirement-related demand. If
Percentage points
that does happen, the federal funds rate could become
Measure 1994 1995 1996 1997 more volatile, and depository institutions may have
to change the way they manage their account bal-
Range . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.35 1.06 1.87 1.54
Intraday standard deviation . . . .19 .15 .23 .19 ances. Especially if that volatility is passed on to
Late range . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.16 .89 1.56 1.35
other market interest rates, the Federal Reserve might
Note. Values for 1997 are based on data through September 24. Range is the need to alter the way it operates in the funds market.
difference between the highest and lowest rate at which federal funds lending
took place in the brokers market. Intraday standard deviation is a volume- One way to forestall the need to make such changes
weighted standard deviation of all rates paid in the brokers market. Late range would be to pay interest on balances held at the
is the difference between the highest and lowest rate at which federal funds
lending took place in the brokers market between the close of the New York Federal Reserve. Payment of a market rate of interest
Clearing House Interbank Payments System (usually 4:30 p.m.) and the close of on required reserve balances would virtually elimi-
funds trading (usually 6:30 p.m.)
nate the implicit current tax on depository institu-
tions, likely encouraging some depository institutions
to discontinue their sweep programs. However, the
eral Reserve account. Before interstate branching,
payment of interest on Federal Reserve balances
each affiliate account had to end the day with a
requires legislation.
nonnegative balance; under interstate branching, the
transactions of all affiliates (now branches) flow
through only one account. SUMMARY
The variability in the federal funds rate in recent
years is summarized in table 5. In 1996, the daily Open market operations are the principal tool used by
trading range for federal funds widened, on average, the Federal Reserve to implement monetary policy.
as did an alternative measure, the intraday standard They are a powerful and flexible means of fostering
deviation of the funds rate. However, both measures conditions in the federal funds market that are con-
indicate that volatility tapered off during the first nine sistent with policy objectives. The conduct of open
months of 1997. Overall, the slight increase in the market operations in the 1990s has been shaped by a
intraday variability of the funds rate has not had number of factors, including shifts in the way the
adverse effects on the Desk’s ability to attain the FOMC communicates changes in the stance of mone-
FOMC’s funds rate target; nor has the rise in vari- tary policy, developments in the market for repur-
ability affected other market interest rates more chase agreements, and changes in the demand for
generally. balances at the Federal Reserve. In the years ahead,
Additional sweep programs are expected to be the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly continue to
implemented, and it is not clear whether their prolif- adapt the way it conducts open market operations as
eration might eventually lower total required bal- financial markets evolve.