International Energy Outlook

DOE/EIA-0484(2008)
International
Energy Outlook
2008
September 2008
Energy Information Administration

Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585
This publication is on the WEB at:

www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.
This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and
analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be
attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or
reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization.
Contacts
The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Ener- or Glen E. Sweetnam, Director, International, Economic,
gy Information Administration (EIA). General questions and Greenhouse Gases Division (glen.sweetnam@eia.
concerning the contents of the report should be referred doe.gov, 202-586-2188). Specific questions about the
to John J. Conti, Director, Office of Integrated Analysis report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202-586-
and Forecasting ([email protected], 202-586-2222), 1041) or the following analysts:
World Energy Demand

and Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linda Doman ([email protected], 202-586-1041)
Liquid Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . John Staub ([email protected], 202-586-6344)
Lauren Mayne ([email protected], 202-586-3005)
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Justine Barden ([email protected] 202-586-3508)
Phyllis Martin ([email protected], 202-586-9592)
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Michael Mellish ([email protected], 202-586-2136)
Diane Kearney ([email protected], 202-586-2415)
Stephanie Kette ([email protected], 202-586-3627)
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linda Doman ([email protected], 202-586-1041)
Projections for Nuclear Power. . . . . . Lori Aniti ([email protected], 202-586-2867)
Uranium Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Brian Murphy ([email protected], 202-586-1398)
Transportation Sector Energy Use . . . . . . Barry Kapilow-Cohen ([email protected], 202-586-5359)
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide
Emissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Perry Lindstrom ([email protected], 202-586-0934)
Electronic Access and Related Reports
IEO2008 will be available on CD-ROM and on the EIA Home Page (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html) by
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ii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Contents
Page
Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Outlook for World Energy Consumption by Source . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
World Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Major Sources of Uncertainty in the Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Liquid Fuels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
World Liquids Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
World Oil Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
World Liquids Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Oil Reserves and Resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
World Natural Gas Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
World Natural Gas Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Reserves and Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
World Coal Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
World Coal Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
World Coal Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
World Coal Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Electricity Supply by Energy Source. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Regional Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Transportation Sector Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

OECD Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Non-OECD Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

Reference Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Alternative Macroeconomic Growth Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Alternative Price Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 iii

Appendixes
A. Reference Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
B. High Economic Growth Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
C. Low Economic Growth Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
D. High Price Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
E. Low Price Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
F. Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Country Grouping. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
G. Projections of Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Production in Five Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
H. Reference Case Projections for Electricity Capacity and Generation by Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
I. Comparisons With International Energy Agency and IEO2007 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
J. Models Used To Generate the IEO2008 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
K. Regional Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
Tables
1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2. Average Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic Product by Selected Countries and Regions, 1980-2030 . . . . 14
3. World Liquid Fuels Production, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
4. World Oil Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
5. World Natural Gas Production by Region and Country, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
6. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
7. World Coal Production by Region, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
8. World Coal Flows by Importing and Exporting Regions, Reference Case, 2006, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
9. World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
10. OECD and Non-OECD Net Electricty Generation by Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
11. World Energy Consumption for Transportation by Country Grouping, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
12. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
13. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
14. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Figures
1. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
3. World Oil Prices in Two Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
4. World Liquids Production, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
5. World Natural Gas Production, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
6. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
7. World Liquids Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
8. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
9. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
10. World Marketed Energy Consumption: OECD and Non-OECD, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
11. Marketed Energy Use in the Non-OECD Economies by Region, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
12. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
13. Coal Consumption in Selected World Regions, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
15. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region, 2005, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
16. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEO2008 Projections for OECD, Non-OECD, and World
GDP Growth Rates, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
17. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
18. World Oil Prices in Three Price Cases, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
19. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Price Cases, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
20. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Price Cases, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
21. World Liquids Consumption in Three Price Cases, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
22. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the OECD Economies, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
23. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Non-OECD Economies, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
24. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Non-OECD Economies
of Europe and Eurasia, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
iv Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Figures (Continued)
25. Energy Intensity by Region, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
26. World Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
27. World Production of Unconventional Liquid Fuels, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
28. World Liquids Consumption by Sector, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
29. World Liquids Consumption by Region and Country Group, 2005 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
30. Nominal World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
31. World Liquids Supply in Three Cases, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
32. Non-OPEC Conventional Liquids Production by Region, 2005 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
33. OPEC Conventional Liquids Production by Region, 2005 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
34. World Proved Oil Reserves by Geographic Region as of January 1, 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
35. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
36. Natural Gas Consumption in North America by Country, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
37. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD Europe, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
38. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD Asia by Country, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
39. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
40. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD Asia, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
41. Natural Gas Consumption in Central and South America, Africa, and the Middle East, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
42. U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas by Source, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
43. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country Grouping, 1980-2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
44. World Natural Gas Reserves by Geographic Region as of January 1, 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
45. World Natural Gas Resources by Geographic Region, 2008-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
46. World Coal Consumption by Country Grouping, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
47. Coal Share of World Energy Consumption by Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
48. OECD Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2005, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
49. Non-OECD Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2005, 2015, and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
50. Coal Consumption in China by Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
51. Coal Imports by Major Importing Region, 1995-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
52. Growth in World Electric Power Generation and Total Energy Consumption, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
53. World Net Electric Power Generation, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
55. World Net Electricity Generation from Nuclear Power, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
56. Net Electricity Generation in the United States and China, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
57. Net Electricity Generation in OECD North America, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
58. Net Electricity Generation in OECD North America by Fuel, 2005 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
59. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Europe by Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
60. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Asia, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
61. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
62. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Asia by Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
63. Net Electricity Generation in the Middle East by Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
64. Net Electricity Generation in Africa by Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
65. Net Electricity Generation in Brazil by Fuel, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
66. OECD and Non-OECD Transportation Sector Liquids Consumption, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
67. Change in World Liquids Consumption for Transportation, 2005 to 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
68. Average Annual Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Gross Domestic Product and Transportation Sector
Delivered Energy Use, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
69. Motor Vehicle Ownership in OECD Countries, 2005, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
70. Change in Liquids Consumption for Transportation by OECD Region, 2005 to 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
71. Average Annual Change in Gross Domestic Product, Population, and Energy Consumption
for Transportation by OECD Region, 2005 to 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
72. Average Annual Change in Gross Domestic Product, Population, and Energy Consumption
for Transportation by Non-OECD Region, 2005 to 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
73. Change in Liquids Consumption for Transportation by Non-OECD Region, 2005 to 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
74. Motor Vehicle Ownership in Non-OECD Countries, 2005, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
75. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
76. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
77. Average Annual Growth in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the OECD Economies, 2005-2030 . . . 93
78. U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in IEO2007 and IEO2008, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 v

Figures (Continued)
79. Average Annual Growth in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
in the Non-OECD Economies, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
80. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Combustion, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
81. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Combustion, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
82. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Combustion, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
83. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
84. Non-OECD Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita by Country and Region, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
85. OECD Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita by Country and Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
86. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Three Economic Growth Cases, 2005 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
87. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Three Alternative Price Cases, 2005 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
K1. Map of the Six Basic Country Groupings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
Appendix Tables
A1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
A3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,
Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
A4. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Market Exchange Rates,
Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
A5. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
A6. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
A7. World Coal Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
A8. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
A9. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,
Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
A10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
A11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
A12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
A13. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
A14. World Population by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
B1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . 122
B3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,
High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
B4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
B5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
B6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
B7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
B8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,
High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
B9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
B10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . 131
B11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
B12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . 133
C1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
C3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,
Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
C4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
C5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
C6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
C7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
C8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,
Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
vi Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Appendix Tables (Continued)
C9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
C10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . 147
C11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
C12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . 149
D1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
D2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
D3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,
High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
D4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
D5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
D6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
D7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
D8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Price Case,
1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
D9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
D10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
D11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
D12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
E1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
E2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
E3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,
Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
E4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
E5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
E6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
E7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
E8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,
Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
E9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
E10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
E11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
E12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
F1. Total World Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
F2. Total OECD Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
F3. Delivered Energy Consumption in the United States by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
F4. Delivered Energy Consumption in Canada by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
F5. Delivered Energy Consumption in Mexico by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
F6. Delivered Energy Consumption in OECD Europe by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
F7. Delivered Energy Consumption in Japan by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
F8. Delivered Energy Consumption in South Korea by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
F9. Delivered Energy Consumption in Australia/New Zealand by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . 193
F10. Total Non-OECD Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
F11. Delivered Energy Consumption in Russia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
F12. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
F13. Delivered Energy Consumption in China by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
F14. Delivered Energy Consumption in India by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
F15. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Non-OECD Asia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . 199
F16. Delivered Energy Consumption in the Middle East by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
F17. Delivered Energy Consumption in Africa by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
F18. Delivered Energy Consumption in Brazil by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
F19. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Central and South America by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030 . 203
G1. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
G2. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 vii

Appendix Tables (Continued)
G3. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
G4. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
G5. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
G6. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
G7. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
G8. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
G9. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
G10. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . 219
G11. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . 220
G12. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
G13. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . 223
G14. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . 224
G15. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
H1. World Total Installed Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
H2. World Installed Liquids-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
H3. World Installed Natural-Gas-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
H4. World Installed Coal-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
H5. World Installed Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
H6. World Installed Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Generating Capacity
by Region and Country, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
H7. World Total Net Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . 235
H8. World Net Liquids-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers
H9. World Net Natural-Gas-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers
H10. World Net Coal-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2005-2030 . . . . 238
H11. World Net Nuclear Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2005-2030 . . . . . . 239
H12. World Net Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Electricity Generation From Central Producers
I1. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2005-2015. . . . . . . . . . 241
I2. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2015-2030. . . . . . . . . . 242
I3. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2005-2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
I4. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2015-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
I5. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEO2007 Total World Energy Consumption, Reference Case, 2015 and 2030. . . . . 244
I6. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEO2007 World Energy Consumption by Fuel, Reference Case, 2015 and 2030 . . . 245
viii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Preface
This report presents international energy projections through 2030,
prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks
for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions.
The International Energy Outlook 2008 (IEO2008) presents included in the estimates. The IEO2008 projections are
an assessment by the Energy Information Administra- based on U.S. and foreign government laws in effect on
tion (EIA) of the outlook for international energy January 1, 2008. The potential impacts of pending or pro-
markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in posed legislation, regulations, and standards are not
IEO2008 are consistent with those published in EIA’s reflected in the projections, nor are the impacts of legis-
Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO2008), which was lation for which the implementing mechanisms have not
prepared using the National Energy Modeling System yet been announced.
(NEMS). IEO2008 is provided as a service to energy
managers and analysts, both in government and in the The report begins with a review of world trends in
private sector. The projections are used by international energy demand and the major macroeconomic assump-
agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associa- tions used in deriving the IEO2008 projections, along
tions, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are with the major sources of uncertainty in the forecast. The
published pursuant to the Department of Energy Orga- time frame for historical data begins with 1980 and
nization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). extends to 2005, and the projections extend to 2030. High
economic growth and low economic growth cases were
Projections in IEO2008 are divided according to Organi- developed to depict a set of alternative growth paths for
zation for Economic Cooperation and Development the energy projections. The two cases consider higher
members (OECD) and non-members (non-OECD). and lower growth paths for regional gross domestic
There are three basic country groupings in the OECD: product (GDP) than are assumed in the reference case.
North America (United States, Canada, and Mexico); IEO2008 also includes a high price case and, alterna-
OECD Europe; and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea, tively, a low price case. The resulting projections—and
and Australia/New Zealand) (see Appendix K for com- the uncertainty associated with international energy
plete regional definitions). Non-OECD is divided into projections in general—are discussed in Chapter 1,
five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe “World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook.”
and Eurasia, non-OECD Asia, Africa, Middle East, and
Central and South America. Russia is represented in Regional projections for energy consumption by fuel—
non-OECD Europe and Eurasia; China and India are liquids (primarily petroleum), natural gas, and coal—
represented in non-OECD Asia; and Brazil is repre- are presented in Chapters 2, 3, and 4, along with
sented in Central and South America. reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide
basis. Chapter 5 discusses the projections for world elec-
IEO2008 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Non- tricity markets—including nuclear power, hydropower,
marketed energy sources, which continue to play an and other commercial renewable energy resources—
important role in some developing countries, are not and presents forecasts of world installed generating
Objectives of the IEO2008 Projections
The projections in IEO2008 are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the specific
assumptions and methodologies used. The projections provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that can
be used to analyze international energy markets. As a policy-neutral data and analysis organization, EIA does not
propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes.
Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities, regulatory activities, and producer and
consumer behavior. The projections are highly dependent on the data, analytical methodologies, model structures,
and specific assumptions used in their development. Trends depicted in the analysis are indicative of tendencies in
the real world rather than representations of specific real-world outcomes. Even where trends are stable and well
understood, the projections are subject to uncertainty. Many events that shape energy markets are random and can-
not be anticipated, and assumptions concerning future technology characteristics, demographics, and resource
availability are necessarily uncertain.
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 ix

capacity. Chapter 6 includes a detailed look at the end-use sector and region are presented in Appendix F.
world’s transportation energy use. Finally, Chapter 7 Appendix G contains summary tables of projections for
discusses the outlook for global energy-related carbon world liquids production in all cases. Appendix H con-
dioxide emissions. tains summary tables of reference case projections for
installed electric power capacity by fuel and regional
Appendix A contains summary tables for the IEO2008 electricity generation by fuel. Appendix I includes a set
reference case projections of world energy consumption, of comparisons of projections from the International
GDP, energy consumption by fuel, carbon dioxide emis- Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2007 with the
sions, and regional population growth. Summary tables IEO2008 projections. Comparisons of the IEO2008 and
of projections for the high and low economic growth IEO2007 projections are also presented in Appendix I.
cases are provided in Appendixes B and C, respectively, Appendix J describes the models used to generate the
and projections for the high and low price cases are pro- IEO2008 projections, and Appendix K defines the
vided in Appendixes D and E, respectively. Reference regional designations included in the report.
case projections of delivered energy consumption by
x Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Highlights
World marketed energy consumption is projected to increase by 50 percent
from 2005 to 2030. Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries increases
by 85 percent, compared with an increase of 19 percent in the OECD countries.
In the IEO2008 reference case—which reflects a scenario The IEO2008 reference case projects increased world
where current laws and policies remain unchanged consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources
throughout the projection period—world marketed over the 2005 to 2030 projection period (Figure 2). Fossil
energy consumption is projected to grow by 50 percent fuels (liquid fuels and other petroleum,1 natural gas, and
over the 2005 to 2030 period. Total world energy use coal) are expected to continue supplying much of the
rises from 462 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in energy used worldwide. Liquids supply the largest
2005 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 695 qua- share of world energy consumption over the projection
drillion Btu in 2030 (Figure 1). Global energy demand period, but their share falls from 37 percent in 2005 to 33
grows despite the sustained high world oil prices that percent in 2030, largely in response to a reference case
are projected to persist over the long term. scenario in which world oil prices are expected to
remain relatively high.
The most rapid growth in energy demand from 2005 to
2030 is projected for nations outside the Organization for Average world oil prices in every year since 2003
Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD have been higher than the average for the previous
nations). Total non-OECD energy demand increases by year. Prices in 2007 were nearly double the 2003 prices
85 percent in the IEO2008 reference case projection, as in real terms. Prices rose further into the third quarter
compared with an increase of 19 percent in OECD of 2008, reaching $147 per barrel in mid-July, when they
energy use. The robust growth in demand among the were well above the historical inflation-adjusted record
non-OECD nations is largely the result of strong pro- price for a barrel of oil set in the early 1980s. A variety of
jected economic growth. In all the non-OECD regions factors have caused oil prices to increase rapidly since
combined, economic activity—as measured by GDP in 2003, including strong demand growth in non-OECD
purchasing power parity terms—increases by 5.2 per- Asia and the Middle East, no growth in production
cent per year on average, as compared with an average between 2005 and 2007 from the members of the Organi-
of 2.3 percent per year for the OECD countries. zation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC),
Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption, Figure 2. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel
2005-2030 Type, 1980-2030
Quadrillion Btu Quadrillion Btu
800 250
Non-OECD 695 History Projections
652
OECD 608 200
600 563
513
462 150 Liquids
400
100 Coal
200 Natural Gas Renewables

50
Nuclear
0 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1980 1995 2005 2015 2030
Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy
Projections Plus (2008). Projections Plus (2008).
1 Liquid fuels and other petroleum include petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel,
coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are natural gas liquids, crude oil consumed
as a fuel, and liquid hydrogen.
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 1

rising costs for oil exploration and development, across- in 2015 and 112.5 million barrels per day in 2030. The
the-board increases in commodity prices, and a weaker liquids share of world energy consumption declines
U.S. dollar. through 2030, however, as other fuels replace liquids
where possible. In most regions of the world, the role of
In the IEO2008 reference case, prices ease somewhat in liquid fuels outside the transportation sector continues
the medium term, as anticipated new production—both to be eroded. Liquids remain the most important fuels
conventional and unconventional (in Azerbaijan, Brazil, for transportation, because there are few alternatives
Canada, Kazakhstan, and the United States, for exam- that can compete widely with liquid fuels. On a global
ple)—reaches the marketplace. Ultimately, however, basis, the transportation sector accounts for 74 percent of
markets are expected to remain relatively tight. In nomi- the total projected increase in liquids use from 2005 to
nal terms, world oil prices in the IEO2008 reference case 2030, with the industrial sector accounting for virtually
decline from current high levels to around $70 per barrel all of the remainder.
in 2015, then rise steadily to $113 per barrel in 2030 ($70
per barrel in inflation-adjusted 2006 dollars). To meet the increment in world liquids demand in the
IEO2008 reference case, total supply in 2030 is projected
In addition to the reference case, IEO2008 includes a to be 28.2 million barrels per day higher than the 2005
high price case that helps to quantify the uncertainly level of 84.3 million barrels per day. The reference case
associated with long-term projections of future oil assumes that OPEC producers will choose to maintain
prices. In the high price case, world oil prices in 2030—at their market share of world liquids supply, and that
$186 per barrel in nominal terms—are nearly 65 percent OPEC member countries will invest in incremental
higher than projected in the reference case (Figure 3). production capacity so that their conventional oil pro-
Given current market conditions, it appears that world duction represents approximately 40 percent of total
oil prices are on a path that more closely resembles the global liquids production throughout the projection.
projection in the high price case than in the reference Increasing volumes of conventional liquids (crude oil
case. With higher world oil prices slowing the growth of and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, and
demand in the long term, world liquids consumption in refinery gain) from OPEC members contribute 12.4 mil-
the high price case totals only 99.3 million barrels per lion barrels per day to the total increase in world liquids
day in 2030, 13 million barrels per day lower than in the production, and conventional liquids supplies from
reference case. non-OPEC countries add another 8.6 million barrels per
day (Figure 4).
Liquids are expected to remain the world’s dominant
energy source throughout the IEO2008 reference case Unconventional resources (including oil sands, extra-
projection, given their importance in the transportation heavy oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids)
and industrial end-use sectors. World use of liquids and from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources are expected to
other petroleum grows from 83.6 million barrels oil become increasingly competitive in the reference case.
equivalent per day in 2005 to 95.7 million barrels per day World production of unconventional resources, which
totaled only 2.5 million barrels per day in 2005, increases
Figure 3. World Oil Prices in Two Cases, 1980-2030
Nominal Dollars per Barrel Figure 4. World Liquids Production, 2005-2030
200 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day
History Projections 125
High Price Case
150 100
Total
75
100
Non-OPEC Conventional
50
Reference Case
50
OPEC Conventional
25
Unconventional
0
1980 1995 2007 2015 2030 0
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Generate World
2008), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo. Oil Balance Model (2008).
2 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

to 9.7 million barrels per day in 2030, accounting for 9 toward LNG: natural gas production in the two regions
percent of total world liquids supply in 2030 on an oil combined increases by 21.0 trillion cubic feet between
equivalent basis. Biofuels, including ethanol and 2005 and 2030, but their combined demand for natural
biodiesel, will be an increasingly important source of gas increases by only 9.9 trillion cubic feet. Significant
unconventional liquids supplies, largely because of the increases in natural gas production are also projected for
growth in U.S. biofuels production. In the IEO2008 refer- the countries of non-OECD Asia, but those supply
ence case, the United States accounts for nearly one-half increases are expected to be used largely for consump-
of the rise in world biofuels production, at 1.2 million tion within the region rather than for export.
barrels per day in 2030.
In the absence of national policies and/or binding inter-
The composition of supply differs substantially between national agreements that would limit or reduce green-
the reference and high price cases. High prices encour- house gas emissions, world coal consumption is
age the development of previously uneconomical projected to increase from 123 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to
unconventional supplies, which account for a much 202 quadrillion Btu in 2030, at an average annual rate of
larger portion of total liquids supply than in the refer- 2.0 percent. Coal’s share of world energy use has
ence case in 2030 (nearly 20 percent, as compared with increased sharply over the past few years, largely
about 9 percent in the reference case). Conventional sup- because of strong increases in coal use in China, which
plies decline over the projection period in the high price nearly doubled from 2000 to 2005 and is poised to
case, by 1.5 million barrels per day, compared with an increase strongly in the future. With its large domestic
increase of 21.0 million barrels per day in the reference base of coal resources and continuing strong economic
case. The high price case assumes that OPEC member growth, China alone accounts for 71 percent of the
countries will maintain their production at near current increase in world coal consumption in the IEO2008 refer-
levels. As a result, OPEC is willing, in this case, to sacri- ence case. The United States and India—both of which
fice market share as global demand for liquids continues also have extensive domestic coal resources—each
to grow. The high price case also assumes that oil account for 9 percent of the world increase.
resources in non-OPEC countries will be less accessible
and/or more expensive than in the reference case. World net electricity generation nearly doubles in the
IEO2008 reference case, from about 17.3 trillion
Worldwide natural gas consumption in the IEO2008 ref- kilowatthours in 2005 to 24.4 trillion kilowatts in 2015
erence case increases from 104 trillion cubic feet in 2005 and 33.3 trillion kilowatthours in 2030. Non-OECD
to 158 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Natural gas is expected developing countries show the strongest growth in elec-
to replace oil wherever possible. Moreover, because nat- tricity demand as they expand their power grids to sup-
ural gas combustion produces less carbon dioxide than port sustained robust economic growth. Total electricity
coal or petroleum products, governments may encour- generation in the non-OECD countries increases by an
age its use to displace the other fossil fuels as national or average of 4.0 percent per year from 2005 to 2030, as
regional plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
begin to be implemented. Natural gas is expected to
remain a key energy source for industrial sector uses Figure 5. World Natural Gas Production, 2005-2030
and electricity generation throughout the projection Trillion Cubic Feet
period. The industrial sector, which is the world’s larg- 250
OECD Africa
est consumer of natural gas, accounts for 43 percent of
projected natural gas use in 2030. In the electric power Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia Middle East
200
sector, natural gas is an attractive choice for new gener- Central and South America Non-OECD Asia
ating plants because of its relative fuel efficiency. Elec-
tricity generation accounts for 35 percent of the world’s 150
total natural gas consumption in 2030.
100
Much of the world’s growing demand for natural gas is
projected to be met by increased production from
non-OECD nations. In the IEO2008 reference case, non- 50
OECD countries account for more than 90 percent of the
world’s total growth in production from 2005 to 2030 0
(Figure 5). A significant portion of the non-OECD pro- 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
duction (excluding Russia and the other nations of Eur- Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
asia) is expected to be in the form of export projects— International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. The site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy
Middle East and Africa are at the forefront of the trend Projections Plus (2008).

compared with a projected average increase of 1.3 per- Electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to
cent per year for OECD electricity generation. increase from about 2.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to
3.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2030, as concerns about ris-
Coal and natural gas account for the largest increments ing fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse
in fuel consumption for electricity generation over the gas emissions support the development of new nuclear
projection period. The 3.1-percent projected annual generation. Higher capacity utilization rates have been
growth rate for coal-fired electricity generation world- reported for many existing nuclear facilities, and it is
wide is exceeded only by the 3.7-percent rate for natural- anticipated that most of the older nuclear power plants
gas-fired generation (Figure 6). Sustained high prices for in the OECD countries and non-OECD Eurasia will be
oil and natural gas make coal-fired generation more granted extensions to their operating lives. Still, there is
attractive economically, especially for coal-rich nations considerable uncertainty associated with nuclear power.
like China, India, and the United States.
The outlook for fossil-fuel-fired generation could be Issues that could slow the expansion of nuclear power in
altered substantially by international agreements to the future include plant safety, radioactive waste dis-
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The electric power posal, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons, which
sector offers some of the most cost-effective opportuni- continue to raise public concerns in many countries and
ties for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in many may hinder the development of new nuclear power
countries. Coal—the world’s most widely used source of reactors. Moreover, high capital and maintenance costs
energy for power generation—is also the most carbon- may keep some nations from expanding their nuclear
intensive. If a cost, either implicit or explicit, were power programs. Nevertheless, the IEO2008 reference
applied to emitters of carbon dioxide, there are several case incorporates the improved prospects for world
alternative no- or low-emission technologies that cur- nuclear power. The IEO2008 projection for nuclear elec-
rently are commercially proven or under development, tricity generation in 2025 is 31 percent higher than the
which could be used to replace some coal-fired genera- projection published in IEO2003 only 5 years ago.
tion. Implementing the technologies would not require
expensive, large-scale changes in the power distribution In the IEO2008 reference case, the world’s installed
infrastructure or in electricity-using equipment. nuclear capacity grows from 374 gigawatts in 2005 to 498
gigawatts in 2030. Declines in nuclear capacity are pro-
Technology transformation in the end-use sectors— jected only for OECD Europe, where several countries
such as transportation—could be more difficult, to the (including Germany and Belgium) have either plans or
extent that extensive changes in the motor vehicle fleet, mandates to phase out nuclear power, and where some
fueling stations, and fuel distribution infrastructure may older reactors are expected to be retired and not
be needed. Efficiency improvements are an alternative replaced. On a regional basis, IEO2008 projects the
for reducing emissions from equipment that uses either strongest growth in nuclear power for the countries of
electricity or other fuels. non-OECD Asia. Of the 68 gigawatts of additional
installed nuclear generating capacity projected for non-
Figure 6. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, OECD Asia between 2005 and 2030, 45 gigawatts is in
2005-2030
China and 17 gigawatts in India. Outside Asia, the larg-
Trillion Kilowatthours
40 est increase in installed nuclear capacity among the non-
Nuclear OECD nations is projected for Russia, which is expected
Renewables to add 18 gigawatts of new nuclear generating capacity
30 Natural Gas over the mid-term projection.
Coal
High prices for oil and natural gas, which are expected
Liquids
20 to persist in the reference case, also encourage expanded
use of renewable fuels. Renewable energy sources are
attractive for environmental reasons, especially in coun-
10 tries where reducing greenhouse gas emissions is of par-
ticular concern. Government policies and incentives to
increase the use of renewable energy sources for electric-
ity generation are expected to encourage the develop-
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 ment of renewable energy even when it cannot compete
Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
economically with fossil fuels. Worldwide, the con-
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web sumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the energy sources increases by 2.1 percent per year in the
Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity Module IEO2008 reference case, from 35 quadrillion Btu in 2005
(2008). to 59 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

In the non-OECD nations, much of the growth in renew- transportation systems in order to move products and
able energy consumption is projected to come from mid- raw materials to market, particularly in developing
to large-scale hydroelectric facilities in Asia and in Cen- rural areas where economic growth often is achieved by
tral and South America, where several countries have increasing product exports.
hydropower facilities either planned or under construc-
The transportation infrastructure in OECD countries
tion. Among the OECD nations, hydroelectricity is fairly
generally is considered to be well-established. Motoriza-
well established, and with the exception of Canada and
tion levels (as measured by vehicles per 1,000 people)
Turkey there are few plans to undertake major hydro-
are fairly high in the OECD nations, where roads and
electric power projects in the future. Instead, increases in
highways connect most of the population centers.
OECD renewable energy consumption are expected to
Mature transportation sectors and relatively slow pro-
be in the form of nonhydroelectric renewables, espe-
jected growth rates for gross domestic product (GDP)
cially wind and biomass. Many individual OECD coun-
and population among the OECD economies lead to the
tries have incentives in place to increase the penetration
expectation that transportation energy demand will
of nonhydroelectric renewable electricity sources, both
increase only modestly. Transportation energy demand
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to promote
in the OECD economies is projected to grow at an aver-
energy security, and in the IEO2008 projections OECD
age annual rate of 0.7 percent in the IEO2008 reference
renewable generation grows by 1.6 percent per year
case (about one-fifth the rate projected for the non-
from 2005 to 2030, faster than all the other sources of
OECD economies), with North America accounting for
electricity of generation except natural gas.
approximately one-half of the total increase in OECD
consumption of liquid fuels for transportation.
Over the next 25 years, world demand for liquid fuels
and other petroleum is expected to increase more rap- World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions con-
idly in the transportation sector than in any other tinue to increase steadily in the IEO2008 reference case,
end-use sector (Figure 7). The transportation share of from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 34.3 billion metric
total liquids consumption increases from 52 percent in tons in 2015 and 42.3 billion metric tons in 2030—an
2005 to 58 percent in 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case. increase of 51 percent over the projection period. With
Much of the growth in transportation energy use is strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance
projected for the non-OECD nations, where trans- on fossil fuels expected for most of the non-OECD econ-
portation energy use increases at an average rate of 2.9 omies, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions
percent per year, doubling between 2005 and 2030. is projected to occur among the developing, non-OECD
Strong growth in income per capita supports the growth nations. In 2005, non-OECD emissions exceeded OECD
in transportation energy demand, and the reference emissions by 7 percent. In 2030, however, non-OECD
case anticipates that many of the world’s emerging emissions are projected to exceed OECD emissions by 72
economies will experience rapid modernization of their percent (Figure 8).
Figure 7. World Liquids Consumption by End-Use Figure 8. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions,
Sector, 2005-2030 2005-2030
Quadrillion Btu Billion Metric Tons
250 50
229
OECD Non-OECD World Total
42.3
194 39.6
200 40 37.0
169 34.3
Electric Power 31.1
150 30 28.1
Buildings
Industrial
100 20
Transportation
50 10
0 0
2005 2015 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Chapter 1
World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook
In the IEO2008 projections, total world consumption of marketed energy is projected
to increase by 50 percent from 2005 to 2030. The largest projected increase
in energy demand is for the non-OECD economies.
World energy consumption is projected to expand by 50 to 18 percent. Even stronger growth is projected over the
percent from 2005 to 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case next 25 years, with their combined energy use more than
projection (Figure 9 and Table 1). Although high prices
for oil and natural gas, which are expected to continue Figure 9. World Marketed Energy Consumption,
throughout the period, are likely to slow the growth of 1980-2030
energy demand in the long term, world energy con- Quadrillion Btu
sumption is projected to continue increasing strongly as 800
a result of robust economic growth and expanding pop- 652
ulations in the world’s developing countries. OECD 608
member countries are, for the most part, more advanced 600 563
512
energy consumers.2 Energy demand in the OECD econ- 462
omies is expected to grow slowly over the projection 398
period, at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent, whereas 400 347 365
energy consumption in the emerging economies of non- 284 309
OECD countries is expected to expand by an average of
200
2.5 percent per year (Figure 10).
China and India—the fastest growing non-OECD econo-

0
mies—will be key contributors to world energy con-
80 985 990 995 000 005 010 015 020 025 030
sumption in the future. Over the past decades, their 19 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
energy consumption as a share of total world energy use Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
has increased significantly. In 1980, China and India International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
together accounted for less than 8 percent of the world’s site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy
total energy consumption; in 2005 their share had grown Projections Plus (2008).
Table 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2005-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)
Average Annual
Percent Change,
Region 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240.9 249.7 260.5 269.0 277.6 285.9 0.7
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121.3 126.4 132.3 137.8 143.4 148.9 0.8
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.4 83.9 86.8 88.5 90.4 92.0 0.5
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.2 39.3 41.4 42.7 43.7 44.9 0.7
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221.3 262.8 302.5 339.4 374.2 408.8 2.5
Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 50.7 55.1 59.5 63.3 66.0 69.1 1.2
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109.9 137.1 164.2 189.4 215.3 240.8 3.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.9 26.4 29.5 32.6 34.7 36.8 1.9
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.4 16.5 18.9 20.9 22.5 23.9 2.0
Central and South America . . . . 23.4 27.7 30.5 33.2 35.7 38.3 2.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462.2 512.5 563.0 608.4 651.8 694.7 1.6
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site www.
eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008).
2 For consistency, OECD includes all members of the organization as of May 1, 2008, throughout all the time series presented in this
report.

doubling and their share increasing to one-quarter of the other former Soviet Republics), as substantial gains
world energy consumption in 2030 in the IEO2008 refer- in energy efficiency result from the replacement of inef-
ence case. In contrast, the U.S. share of total world ficient Soviet-era capital stock and population growth
energy consumption is projected to contract from 22 per- rates decline.
cent in 2005 to about 17 percent in 2030.
This chapter presents an overview of the IEO2008 out-
Energy consumption in other non-OECD regions also is look for global marketed energy consumption by energy
expected to grow strongly from 2005 to 2030, with source and by end-use sector. It includes discussions of
increases of around 60 percent projected for the Middle the major assumptions that form the basis for the
East, Africa, and Central and South America (Figure 11). IEO2008 projections, including macroeconomic assump-
A smaller increase, about 36 percent, is expected for tions for the key OECD and non-OECD economies.
non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (including Russia and
As with any set of projections, there is significant uncer-
Figure 10. World Marketed Energy Consumption: tainty associated with the IEO2008 energy projections.
OECD and Non-OECD, 1980-2030 Two sets of sensitivity cases, which vary some of the
Quadrillion Btu assumptions behind the projections, are also examined
500 in this chapter: the high and low macroeconomic growth
History Projections
cases and high and low energy price cases. The sensitiv-
ity cases are intended to illustrate alternative scenarios
400
rather than to identify any bounds on uncertainty,
which can be affected by policy and technology develop-
300 ments as well as by price and growth paths. Also
OECD included is a discussion of the possible effects of future
200
trends in energy intensity (the relationship between
energy use and economic growth) on the reference case
projections.
100 Non-OECD
Outlook for World Energy
0 Consumption by Source
1980 1995 2005 2015 2030
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), The use of all energy sources increases over the time
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web frame of the IEO2008 reference case (Figure 12). Given
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy expectations that world oil prices will remain relatively
Projections Plus (2008).
Figure 11. Marketed Energy Use in the Non-OECD Figure 12. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel
Economies by Region, 1990-2030 Type, 1990-2030
500 250
History Projections History Projections
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 409
400 200
Central and South America 339
Africa Liquids
300 263 150
Middle East
221
Non-OECD Asia
200 167 100 Coal
150
Natural Gas Renewables
100 50
Nuclear
0 0
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

high throughout the projection, liquid fuels3 are the for natural gas is slower in IEO2008 than was projected
world’s slowest growing source of energy; liquids con- in IEO2007, however, primarily because of the smaller
sumption increases at an average annual rate of 1.2 per- increases in natural-gas-fired generating capacity
cent from 2005 to 2030. Renewable energy and coal are expected for some countries. For example, natural-gas-
the fastest growing energy sources, with consumption fired generation in the United States in 2030 is 14 percent
increasing by 2.1 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. lower in IEO2008 than was projected in last year’s out-
Projected high prices for oil and natural gas, as well as look. Higher natural gas prices, along with U.S. tax
rising concern about the environmental impacts of fossil incentives for clean coal technologies, are expected to
fuel use, improve prospects for renewable energy discourage the construction of new natural-gas-fired
sources. Coal’s costs are comparatively low relative to plants in favor of coal-fired plants.
the costs of liquids and natural gas, and abundant
resources in large energy-consuming countries (includ- Coal’s share of world energy use has increased sharply
ing China, India, and the United States) make coal an over the past few years, and without significant changes
economical fuel choice. in existing laws and polices, particularly those related to
greenhouse gas emissions, robust growth is likely to
Although liquid fuels and other petroleum are expected continue. Coal accounted for 24 percent of total world
to remain important sources of energy throughout the energy use in 2002 and 27 percent in 2005, largely as a
projections, the liquids share of marketed world energy result of rapid increases in coal use in China. After grow-
consumption declines from 37 percent in 2005 to 33 per- ing at an average rate of 3 percent per year from 1990 to
cent in 2030 in the reference case as high world oil prices 2001, China’s coal consumption increased by 17 percent
lead many consumers to switch from liquid fuels and per year on average from 2002 to 2005. As a result, coal
other petroleum when feasible. For example, the projec- use in China has nearly doubled since 2000, and given
tions show a steady decline in the use of liquids for elec- the country’s rapidly expanding economy and large
tricity generation in all regions of the world except the domestic coal deposits, its demand for coal is projected
Middle East. Whereas the IEO2007 reference case pro- to continue growing strongly.
jected a 0.4-percent average annual increase in liquids
Worldwide, coal consumption is projected to increase by
use for electricity generation worldwide from 2005 to
2.0 percent per year from 2005 to 2030 (by 35 quadrillion
2030, IEO2008 projects an average decrease of 1.0 per-
Btu from 2005 to 2015 and by another 44 quadrillion Btu
cent per year.
from 2015 to 2030) and to account for 29 percent of total
Efficiency gains and fuel substitution slow the growth of world energy consumption in 2030. In the absence of
liquids consumption in the industrial sector, especially policies or legislation that would limit the growth of coal
in the non-OECD regions, where there are more oppor- use, the United States, China, and India are expected to
tunities for fuel switching. World liquids consumption turn to coal in place of more expensive fuels. Together,
for energy in the industrial sector increases by 1.1 per- the three nations account for 90 percent of the projected
cent per year in the IEO2008 reference case. increase from 2005 to 2030 (Figure 13). The only coun-
tries for which decreases in coal consumption are pro-
The IEO2008 high price case reflects a price path that is jected are OECD Europe and Japan, where populations
closer, in real terms, to prices prevailing during the first are either growing slowly or declining, electricity
8 months of 2008. In this case, world liquids consump- demand growth is slow, and natural gas, nuclear power,
tion increases by an average of only 0.7 percent per year and renewables are likely to be used for electricity gen-
from 2005 to 2030, as compared with 1.2-percent average eration rather than coal.
annual growth in the reference case. In the high price
case, the liquids share of total energy consumption falls Net electricity generation worldwide is projected to total
to 30 percent in 2030. 33.3 trillion kilowatthours in 2030, nearly double the
2005 total of 17.3 trillion kilowatthours. The strongest
Natural gas remains an important fuel for electricity growth in electricity generation is projected for the
generation worldwide, because it is more efficient and non-OECD countries. Non-OECD electricity generation
less carbon intensive than other fossil fuels. In the increases by 4.0 percent per year in the IEO2008 refer-
IEO2008 reference case, total natural gas consumption ence case, as rising standards of living increase demand
increases by 1.7 percent per year on average, from 104 for home appliances and the expansion of commercial
trillion cubic feet to 158 trillion cubic feet, while its share services, including hospitals, office buildings, and shop-
of world electricity generation increases from 20 percent ping malls. In the OECD nations, where infrastructures
in 2005 to 25 percent in 2030. Growth in world demand are well established and population growth is relatively
3 In IEO2008, “liquid fuels” includes a full array of liquid product supplies, both conventional and unconventional. Conventional liquids
include crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain; unconventional liquids include biofuels, gas-to-liquids,
coal-to-liquids, and unconventional petroleum products (extra-heavy oils, oil shale, and bitumen).

slow, much slower growth in generation is expected, United States and non-OECD Asia, where coal resources
averaging 1.3 percent per year from 2005 to 2030. are ample, higher prices for oil and natural gas make
coal a more economical source of energy for electricity
Natural gas and coal, which currently are the fastest generation.
growing fuel sources for electricity generation world-
wide, continue to lead the increase in fuel use in the elec- Electricity generation from nuclear power increases
tric power sector in the IEO2008 reference case (Figure from 2.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to 3.0 trillion
14). The natural gas share increases from 20 percent in kilowatthours in 2015 and 3.8 trillion kilowatthours in
2005 to 25 percent in 2030, and the coal share increases 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case. Concerns about ris-
from 41 percent to 46 percent. Because natural gas is an ing fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse
efficient fuel for electric power generation and produces gas emissions support the development of new nuclear
less carbon dioxide than coal or petroleum products, it is generating capacity. Higher capacity utilization rates
an attractive choice in many nations; however, in the have been reported for many existing nuclear facilities,
and it is anticipated that most of the older plants now
operating in OECD countries and in non-OECD Eurasia
Figure 13. Coal Consumption in Selected World will be granted extensions to their operating lives.
Regions, 1980-2030
Quadrillion Btu There is still considerable uncertainty about the future of
125
History Projections nuclear power, however, and a number of issues could
slow the development of new nuclear power plants.
100 Plant safety, radioactive waste disposal, and the prolif-
eration of nuclear weapons, which continue to raise pub-
China lic concerns in many countries, may hinder plans for
75
new installations, and high capital and maintenance
Rest of World costs may keep some countries from expanding their
50 nuclear power programs. Nevertheless, the IEO2008
projection for world nuclear electricity generation in
United States 2025 is 31 percent higher than the projection in IEO2003
25
just 5 years ago.
India
0 Most of the expansion of installed nuclear power capac-
1980 1995 2005 2015 2030 ity is expected in non-OECD countries (Figure 15). Rus-
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), sia, China, and India account for almost two-thirds of
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web the projected net increment in world nuclear power
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy capacity between 2005 and 2030. In the reference case,
Figure 14. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, Figure 15. World Nuclear Generating Capacity
2005-2030 by Region, 2005, 2015, and 2030
Trillion Kilowatthours Gigawatts
40 800
Coal Total OECD Europe OECD North America
Natural Gas
OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
30 Renewables 600 China and India Rest of World
498
Nuclear
411
Liquids
374
20 400
133
10 200
134
126
118
119
114
88
74
72
66
64
46
43
31
19
15
10
10
0 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2015 2030

Russia adds 18 gigawatts of nuclear capacity between where most hydroelectric resources already have been
2005 and 2030, India 17 gigawatts, and China 45 developed or lie far from population centers. Instead,
gigawatts. Several OECD nations with existing nuclear most of the increase in OECD renewable energy con-
programs also add new capacity in the reference case, sumption is expected to come from nonhydroelectric
including South Korea with 14 gigawatts, Japan with 11 resources, such as wind, solar, geothermal, municipal
gigawatts, and Canada with 6 gigawatts. In the United solid waste, and biomass. In 2007, installed wind power
States, rules issued by the Internal Revenue Service in capacity in the United States increased by 4,287 mega-
2006 governing the production tax credit for new watts (or 38 percent), supported by the Federal produc-
nuclear plants that was included in the Energy Policy tion tax credit and a number of renewable portfolio
Act of 2005 (EPACT2005), along with high fossil fuel standards in individual States that encourage growth of
prices, support the addition of 16.6 gigawatts of capacity renewable energy [5]. Wind energy markets have also
at newly built nuclear power plants and 2.7 gigawatts grown strongly in non-OECD Asia, where China added
expected from uprates of existing plants, while 4.5 more than 3,400 megawatts and India about 8,000 mega-
gigawatts of existing capacity is expected to be retired. watts of new wind capacity in 2007 [6].
The use of hydroelectricity and other grid-connected OECD Europe, where many countries are obligated to
renewable energy sources continues to expand in the reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Pro-
reference case projection. With consumption projected tocol treaty, remains a key market for wind power, add-
to increase by an average of 2.1 percent per year from ing 8,554 megawatts of new capacity in 2007 alone. The
2005 to 2030, renewable fuels are the fasting growing European Union (EU) has set a target of increasing the
source of energy in the IEO2008 reference case. Higher renewable energy share to 20 percent of gross domestic
fossil fuel prices, particularly for natural gas in the elec- energy consumption by 2020, including a mandatory
tric power sector, along with government policies and minimum of 10 percent for biofuels [7]. Most EU mem-
programs supporting renewable energy, allow renew- ber countries offer incentives for renewable energy pro-
able fuels to compete economically. duction, including subsides and grants for capital
investments and premium prices for generation from
Much of the growth in renewable energy consumption is renewable sources. Installation of wind-powered gener-
projected to come from mid- to large-scale hydroelectric ating capacity has been particularly successful in Ger-
facilities in non-OECD Asia and Central and South many and Spain, which had 22,247 megawatts and
America, where several countries have hydropower 15,145 megawatts of installed capacity, respectively, at
facilities either planned or under construction. In non- the end of 2007 [8].
OECD Asia, China’s 18,200-megawatt Three Gorges
Dam project is nearing completion at the end of 2008, Delivered Energy Consumption by
and the China Yangtze River Three Gorges Project
Development Corporation has already announced plans End-Use Sector
to increase its total installed capacity to 22,400 mega- Understanding patterns in the consumption of energy
watts. In addition, work continues on the 12,600-mega- delivered to end users is an important part of develop-
watt Xiluodu project on the Jisha River (scheduled for ing projections of global energy use. Outside the trans-
completion in 2020 as part of a 14-facility hydropower portation sector, which at present is dominated by liquid
development plan) and on the country’s third-largest fuels and other petroleum products, the mix of energy
hydroelectric facility, the 6,300-megawatt Longtan pro- use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors
ject on the Hongshui River [1]. varies widely by region, depending on a combination of
regional factors, such as the availability of energy
In India, more than 14,500 megawatts of hydropower
resources, the level of economic development, and polit-
capacity currently is under construction [2]. Work has
ical, social, and demographic factors.
begun on what will be India’s largest hydroelectric facil-
ity to date, the 2,000-megawatt Lower Subansiri in Residential Sector
Arunachal Pradesh [3]. In Central and South America,
Brazil has plans for a number of new hydropower pro- Energy use in the residential sector, which accounted for
jects that the country hopes to complete in order to keep about 15 percent of worldwide delivered energy con-
up with electricity demand after 2010, including the sumption in 2005, is defined as the energy consumed by
3,150-megawatt Santo Antonio and 3,300-megawatt households, excluding transportation uses. For residen-
Jirau projects on the Rio Madeira River, along with the tial buildings, the physical size of the structures is one
first phase of the 5,500-megawatt Belo Monte dam pro- key indicator of the amount of energy used by their
ject on the Xingo River [4]. occupants. Larger homes require more energy to pro-
vide heating, air conditioning, and lighting, and they
Outside of Canada and Turkey, hydropower capacity is tend to include more energy-using appliances, such as
not expected to grow substantially in the OECD nations, televisions and laundry equipment. Smaller structures

require less energy, because they contain less space to be Economic trends and population growth drive commer-
heated or cooled, produce less heat transfer with the out- cial sector activity and the resulting energy use. The
door environment, and typically have fewer occupants. need for services (health, education, financial, govern-
For instance, residential energy consumption is lower in ment) increases as populations increase. The degree
China, where the average residence currently has an to which additional needs are met depends in large
estimated 300 square feet of living space or less per per- measure on economic resources—whether from domes-
son, than in the United States, where the average resi- tic or foreign sources—and economic growth. Economic
dence has an estimated 680 square feet of living space growth also determines the degree to which additional
per person [9]. activities are offered and utilized in the commercial sec-
tor. Higher levels of economic activity and disposable
The type and amount of energy used by households income lead to increased demand for hotels and restau-
vary from country to country, depending on income lev- rants to meet business and leisure requirements; for
els, natural resources, climate, and available energy office and retail space to house and service new and
infrastructure. In general, typical households in the expanding businesses; and for cultural and leisure space
OECD use more energy than those in non-OECD such as theaters, galleries, and arenas. In the commercial
nations, in part because higher income levels allow sector, as in the residential sector, energy use per capita
OECD households to purchase more energy-using in the non-OECD countries is much lower than in the
equipment. In the United States, for example, GDP per OECD. Non-OECD commercial energy consumption
capita in 2005 was about $37,000 (in real 2000 dollars per per capita averaged only 1.2 million Btu in 2005, com-
person) and residential energy use per capita was esti- pared with the OECD average of 16.4 million Btu.
mated at 38.7 million Btu. In contrast, China’s per-capita
income in 2005, at $5,900, was only about one-sixth the Slow population growth in most of the OECD nations
U.S. level, and residential energy use per capita was 3.2 contributes to slower anticipated rates of increase in the
million Btu. commercial energy demand. In addition, continued effi-
ciency improvements are projected to moderate the
Although the IEO2008 projections account for marketed
growth of energy demand over time, as energy-using
energy use only, households in many non-OECD coun-
equipment is replaced with newer, more efficient stock.
tries still rely heavily on traditional, non-marketed
Conversely, strong economic growth is expected to
energy sources, including wood and waste, for heating
include continued growth in business activity, with its
and cooking. Much of Africa remains unconnected to a
associated energy use, in areas such as retail and whole-
power grid; and in 2004, an estimated 93 percent of the
sale trade and business, financial, and leisure services.
rural inhabitants of sub-Saharan Africa used biomass as
The United States is the largest consumer of commercial
their primary fuel source for cooking [10]. Some areas of
delivered energy in the OECD and is expected to remain
China and India also rely heavily on woodfuel,
in that position throughout the projection period. U.S.
woodwaste, and charcoal for cooking. In China, about 55
commercial energy use accounts for about 45 percent of
percent of the rural population uses biomass for cook-
the OECD total through 2030.
ing, as does 87 percent of the rural population in India.
Regional economic development should displace some In the non-OECD nations, economic growth and com-
of that use as incomes rise and marketed fuels, such as merce are expected to increase rapidly, fueling addi-
propane and electricity, become more widely accessible. tional demand for energy in the service sectors. Faster
population growth is also expected, relative to that in
Commercial Sector
the OECD countries, portending increases in the need
The commercial sector—often referred to as the services for education, health care, and social services and the
sector or the services and institutional sector—consists energy required to provide them. The energy needed to
of businesses, institutions, and organizations that pro- fuel growth in commercial buildings will be substantial,
vide services. The sector encompasses many different with total delivered commercial energy use among the
types of buildings and a wide range of activities and non-OECD nations expected to rise by 3.3 percent per
energy-related services. Examples of commercial sector year, faster than any other end-use sector.
facilities include schools, stores, correctional institu-
tions, restaurants, hotels, hospitals, museums, office Meeting the fast-paced growth in demand for energy in
buildings, banks, and stadiums that hold sporting the commercial sectors of non-OECD nations is likely to
events. Most commercial energy use occurs in buildings present a challenge. In China, for instance, a large num-
or structures, supplying services such as space heating, ber of existing commercial buildings are classified as
water heating, lighting, cooking, and cooling. Energy “high energy-consuming,” with energy use per square
consumed for services not associated with buildings, foot at levels that are two or three times as high as those
such as for traffic lights and city water and sewer ser- in the western world [11]. The country’s eleventh 5-year
vices, is also categorized as commercial sector energy plan, for 2006-2010, included a goal to transform all
use. existing buildings into “energy-saving” buildings by
2020 and required that all buildings constructed after industrial energy intensity in non-OECD Europe and
2005 incorporate natural ventilation, natural lighting, Eurasia is projected to decline by 3.0 percent per year
and other provisions aimed at reducing energy between 2005 and 2030, compared with a worldwide
intensity. average decline of 2.1 percent per year.
Industrial Sector China, India, and the other non-OECD Asian nations are
Energy is consumed in the industrial sector by a diverse expected to have the most rapid increases worldwide in
group of industries—including manufacturing, agricul- industrial sector energy consumption over the projec-
ture, mining, and construction—and for a wide range of tion period. Whereas the OECD economies have largely
activities, such as process and assembly uses, space con- been moving away from heavy, energy-intensive indus-
ditioning, and lighting. Inputs that typically are consid- tries (such as steel and cement) toward light manufac-
ered energy products are included in industrial sector turing and service activities, energy-intensive heavy
energy use. For example, natural gas and petroleum manufacturing is growing in many of the non-OECD
products used as feedstocks to produce non-energy countries. Currently, about 77 percent of the delivered
products, such as plastics, are counted as energy used in energy use in China is attributed to the industrial sector.
the industrial sector. Industrial sector energy demand Although that share is expected to begin declining, even
varies across regions and countries of the world, based by 2030 the industrial sector accounts for 72 percent of
on level and mix of economic activity, technological China’s total delivered energy use. In India and the
development, and population, among other factors. other non-OECD Asian economies, industrial sector
energy use also remains high throughout the projection
The OECD economies generally have more energy- period, accounting for about 60 percent of total deliv-
efficient industrial operations and a mix of industrial ered energy use for non-OECD Asia through 2030.
output that is more heavily weighted toward non-
energy-intensive sectors than do the non-OECD coun- Transportation Sector
tries. In the United States, for example, the manufactur-
Energy use in the transportation sector includes the
ing share of total economic output has declined steadily
energy consumed in moving people and goods by road,
over the past two decades, while the output share for
rail, air, water, and pipeline. The road transport compo-
service industries (included in the commercial sector)
nent includes light-duty vehicles, such as automobiles,
has increased. Similar developments are expected for
sport utility vehicles, minivans, small trucks, and motor-
the other OECD economies, as increasing international
bikes, as well as heavy-duty vehicles, such as large
trade fosters a shift toward a less energy-intensive mix
trucks used for moving freight and buses for passenger
of industrial activity.
travel. Growth in economic activity and population
The non-OECD economies generally have higher indus- growth are the key factors that determine transportation
trial sector energy consumption relative to GDP than do sector energy demand. Economic growth spurs in-
the OECD countries. On average, the ratio is almost 40 creased industrial output, which requires the movement
percent higher in the non-OECD countries. In particular, of raw materials to manufacturing sites, as well as move-
Russia and the Eastern European countries still have ment of manufactured goods to end users.
energy-inefficient capital stock remaining from the days
of central planning. For example, 85 percent of Russia’s A primary factor contributing to the expected increase in
cement production uses the “wet” process, which energy demand for transportation is steadily increasing
requires 70 percent more fuel than the “dry” method. In demand for personal travel in both the non-OECD and
the United States, by comparison, less than 19 percent of OECD economies. Increases in urbanization and in per-
the cement produced in 2003 was made using the wet sonal incomes have contributed to increases in air travel
process [12]. and to increased motorization (more vehicles) in the
growing economies. Modal shifts in the transport of
As inefficient facilities and production techniques in goods are expected to result from continued economic
non-OECD Europe and Eurasia are replaced with mod- growth in both OECD and non-OECD economies. For
ern ones, industrial energy intensity (industrial energy freight transportation, trucking is expected to lead the
use per dollar of GDP) in the region is expected to growth in demand for transportation fuels. In addition,
decline rapidly. Some former Soviet Republics, such as as trade among countries increases, the volume of
Ukraine and Georgia, have reduced their energy inten- freight transported by air and marine vessels is expected
sity by at least 5.5 percent a year from 2000 to 2005, com- to increase rapidly over the projection period. Chapter 6
pared with an average annual decline of 1.2 percent in includes a more extensive examination of the world’s
the OECD countries [13]. In the IEO2008 reference case, transportation energy use.

World Economic Outlook to long term. In the short term, the spending decisions
made by households and businesses (the demand side)
Economic growth is among the most important factors determine economic activity and thus the short-term
to be considered in projecting changes in world energy economic outlook. Spending decisions, in turn, are influ-
consumption. In the IEO2008 projections, assumptions enced by current economic and financial conditions—
about regional economic growth—measured in terms for example, income, interest rates, and the price of
of real GDP in 2000 U.S. dollars at purchasing power goods to be purchased.
parity rates—underlie the projections of regional energy
demand. Over the 2005 to 2030 period, the world’s real GDP
growth on a purchasing power parity basis is projected
The macroeconomic framework employed for the eco- to average 4.0 percent annually in the reference case
nomic growth projections reflects the interaction of (Table 2 and Figure 16). In the long term, it is the
many important economic variables and underlying ability to produce goods and services (the supply side)
relationships, both in the short term and in the medium that determines the growth potential of any country’s
Table 2. Average Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic Product by Selected Countries and Regions,
1980-2030
(Percent per Year)
History Projections
Region 1980-2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008-2015 2015-2030 2005-2030
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.5 2.6
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.1 1.6 2.8 2.4 2.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.4
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.8 4.8 3.3 3.7 4.1 3.8 3.9
OECD Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.2 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.5 1.8
Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.7 1.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.2 5.0 4.9 5.7 4.4 2.7 3.5
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 2.7 2.6 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.0
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 2.6 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.3
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . 0.3 6.7 7.9 7.9 7.1 5.1 3.4 4.4
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.1 6.4 6.7 7.0 6.5 4.8 3.1 4.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 7.0 9.4 9.0 7.8 5.3 3.8 4.8
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.8 9.2 9.3 8.7 6.6 4.7 5.8
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 10.4 11.1 11.5 10.5 7.3 5.0 6.4
India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 9.2 9.4 9.0 8.5 7.1 4.6 5.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.0 4.2 4.6
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 5.7 5.0 4.6 5.0 4.4 3.7 4.0
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.2 5.5 6.0 5.8 4.9 4.1 4.5
Central and South America . . . . . . 2.4 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.1 3.6 3.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 3.7 4.6 4.8 3.8 3.3 3.6
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 7.5 8.0 8.1 7.6 5.9 4.4 5.2
Total World
Purchasing Power Parity Rates . . 3.3 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.0 4.4 3.5 4.0
Market Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 3.0
Note: All regional real GDP growth rates presented in this table are based on 2000 purchasing power parity weights for the
individual countries in each region, except for the final line of the table, which presents world GDP growth rates based on 2000
market exchange rate weights for all countries.
Sources: Historical Growth Rates: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projected GDP
Growth Rates: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview, Fourth Quarter 2007 (Lexington, MA, January 2008); and Energy Information
Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington DC, June 2008). GDP growth rates for China and
India were adjusted downward, based on the analyst’s judgment.

economy. Growth potential is influenced by population economic growth. In the IEO2008 reference case, the U.S.
growth, labor force participation rates, capital accumu- economy is expected to recover by 2009 as fiscal and
lation, and productivity improvements. In addition, for monetary stimuli boost domestic demand, and to stabi-
the developing economies, progress in building human lize at its long-term growth path by 2010. GDP in the
and physical capital infrastructures, establishing credi- United States is projected to grow by an average of 2.5
ble regulatory mechanisms to govern markets, and percent per year from 2005 to 2030—slower than the
ensuring political stability play more important roles 3.1-percent annual average growth from 1980 to 2005,
in determining their medium- to long-term growth because of the retirement of the baby boom generation
potential. and the resultant slowing of labor force growth.
Annual growth in world GDP over the 25-year projec- Like the United States, Canada is expected to maintain
tion period is higher than the rate recorded over the past healthy growth in productivity and standard of living.
25 years, mainly because the countries that are expected In 2006 and 2007, strong commodity and energy prices
to see more rapid growth, such as China and India, make countered the weakening effect of appreciation in the
up an increasing share of world GDP. A number of the Canadian dollar. Canada’s labor force growth is pro-
developing non-OECD nations have undertaken signifi- jected to slow in the medium to long term, however,
cant reforms over the past several years. Improved mac- as the country’s own baby boom generation retires.
roeconomic policies, trade liberalization, more flexible Canada’s overall economic growth is projected to fall
exchange rate regimes, and lower fiscal deficits have from 3.1 percent per year in 2005 to averages of 2.6 per-
lowered their national inflation rates, reduced uncer- cent per year from 2008 to 2015 and 2.2 percent per year
tainty, and improved their overall investment climates. from 2015 to 2030.
More microeconomic structural reforms, such as privat-
ization and regulatory reform, have also played key Mexico’s real GDP is projected to grow by an average of
roles. In general, such reforms have resulted in growth 3.9 percent per year from 2005 to 2030. The country’s
rates that are above historical trends in many of the strong performance over the past 5 years has been the
developing economies over the past 5 to 10 years. result of favorable developments in several areas. First,
lower inflation has allowed the central bank to lower key
OECD Economies policy rates, which has encouraged domestic demand
The U.S. economy, after weakening substantially in 2001 through greater investment. Second, high oil prices con-
and 2002, recovered rapidly in 2003 and from then until tinue to spur government spending, including invest-
2006 recorded robust growth despite sustained ment in infrastructure projects. Third, remittances from
increases in energy prices. Since 2006, however, a down- Mexicans working abroad continue to grow rapidly,
turn in the housing sector has been a major hindrance to boosting domestic consumption. Finally, Mexico’s
industrial production follows, and is heavily influenced
by, U.S. GDP growth and outsourcing of employment.
Figure 16. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEO2008 Global financial markets remain friendly to Mexico in
Projections for OECD, Non-OECD, and terms of the availability and cost of credit and the vol-
World GDP Growth Rates, 2005-2030 ume of foreign direct investment. In general, strong
Average Annual Percent Change trade ties with the United States are expected to help
6
cushion Mexico from deeper economic troubles. By
IEO2007 5.2% 5.2%
the same token, Mexico’s future growth is also more
5 IEO2008 dependent on U.S. growth.
4.0% 4.0%
4 The economy of OECD Europe grew by more than 3 per-
cent in both 2006 and 2007; however, recent data provide
3
mixed signals about its likely short-term performance.
2.5% 2.4% Recent turbulence in international financial markets and
weaker growth in the United States are pointing to a
2
likely slowdown to 2.7-percent growth in 2008. Over the
long term, OECD Europe’s GDP growth is projected to
1
average 2.3 percent per year from 2005 to 2030, in line
with what OECD considers to be potential output
0
OECD Non-OECD World
growth in the region’s economies [14]. According to the
International Monetary Fund, OECD Europe’s long-
Sources: IEO2007: Energy Information Administration,
International Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0484(2007)
term growth prospects depend on its ability to accelerate
(Washington, DC, May 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ improvements in labor productivity and employment
ieo. IEO2008: Derived from Global Insight, Inc., World Over- growth and to improve structural flexibility in the vari-
view, Fourth Quarter 2007 (Lexington, MA, January 2008). ous national economies [15].

After a decade of stagnation and several false starts, Much of the growth in world economic activity between
Japan’s economic growth has been relatively robust 2005 and 2030 is expected to occur among the nations of
since 2003. Although it is low by the standards of non-OECD Asia, where regional GDP growth is pro-
pre-1990 Japan, the recent annual growth in GDP jected to average 5.8 percent per year. China, non-OECD
exceeds the potential (no more than 2 percent real Asia’s largest economy, is expected to continue playing
growth) for a country with a declining labor force and a major role on both the supply and demand sides of the
population and an industrial technology that has global economy. IEO2008 projects an average annual
already caught up with, and in some cases surpassed, growth rate of approximately 6.4 percent for China’s
the best elsewhere in the world [16]. With the continued economy from 2005 to 2030—the highest among all the
decline in its labor force over the projection period, world’s economies.
Japan’s annual GDP growth is projected to slow, averag-
ing 1.4 percent from 2008 to 2015 and 0.7 percent from Structural issues that have implications for medium- to
2015 to 2030. In the short term, Japan’s highly skilled long-term growth in China include the pace of reform
labor force and strong work ethic are expected to sup- affecting inefficient state-owned companies and a bank-
port the projected average growth rate, as more flexible ing system that is carrying a significant amount of
labor policies allowing greater mobility for workers are nonperforming loans. In the IEO2008 reference case,
adopted. development of domestic capital markets is expected to
continue, providing macroeconomic stability and ensur-
Economic growth in the rest of OECD Asia is expected to ing that China’s large savings are used more efficiently.
be stronger than in Japan. In contrast to the GDP growth
of 1.1 percent per year anticipated for Japan from 2005 to India is another Asian country with a rapidly emerging
2030 in the IEO2008 reference case, South Korea is pro- economy. The medium-term prospects for India’s econ-
jected to see average increases of 3.5 percent per year omy are positive, as it continues to privatize state enter-
and Australia/New Zealand 3.0 percent per year. In the prises and increasingly adopts free market policies.
medium to long term, South Korea’s growth is projected Average annual GDP growth in India over the 2005 to
to taper off and be sustained by productivity growth as 2030 projection period is 5.8 percent. Accelerating struc-
the growth of its labor force slows. Prospects in both tural reforms—including ending regulatory impedi-
Australia and New Zealand are healthy, given their con- ments to the consolidation of labor-intensive industries,
sistent track records of fiscal prudence and structural labor market and bankruptcy reforms, and agricultural
reforms aimed at maintaining competitive product mar- and trade liberalization—remain essential for stimulat-
kets and flexible labor markets. ing potential growth and reducing poverty in the
medium to long term. With its vast and relatively cheap
Non-OECD Economies English-speaking labor force, India is well positioned to
reap the benefits of globalization.
Over the period from 2005 to 2030, economic growth in
non-OECD Europe and Eurasia as a whole is projected Except for China, direct exposure of non-OECD Asia’s
to average 4.4 percent annually. For the past several financial institutions to mortgage-backed securities (or
years, the non-OECD nations of Europe and Eurasia subprime risks) is limited. [17]. As a result, economic
have largely been sheltered from global economic uncer- activity is expected to remain robust in the nations of
tainties, recording strong economic growth in each year non-OECD Asia. Effects of the recent turmoil in world
since 2000, primarily as a result of robust domestic financial centers are expected to be minimal for most of
demand, the growth bonus associated with ascension of the non-OECD Asia economies. Over the medium term,
some countries (including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, from 2005 to 2015, national economic growth rates are
and Slovenia) to the European Union, and the impacts of expected to be roughly constant, before tapering off
rising oil prices on oil-exporting nations (including Rus- gradually to an average of 4.7 percent per year from 2015
sia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan). High to 2030 as labor force growth rates decline and econo-
world oil prices have stimulated investment outlays, mies mature.
especially in the energy sector of the Caspian region;
however, given the volatility of energy market prices, it Rising oil production and prices have helped boost eco-
is unlikely that the region’s economies will be able to nomic growth in the oil-exporting countries of the Mid-
sustain the growth rates recently achieved until diversi- dle East, many of which have also benefited from
fication from energy becomes more broadly based. The spillover effects on trade, tourism, and financial flows
long-term growth prospects for the former Soviet from the region’s oil exporters. In recent years, real GDP
Republic economies of Eurasia hinge on their success in growth rates in the Middle East have averaged around 5
economic diversification, as well as further improve- percent. Medium-term prospects for the region remain
ments in domestic financial and product markets. favorable, given that a significant portion of the recent

increase in oil revenues is expected to continue through- the OECD countries and 409 quadrillion Btu in the non-
out the projection period. OECD countries. In the high growth case, world energy
use in 2030 is projected to total 765 quadrillion Btu, or 70
Economic growth in Africa has maintained a healthy quadrillion Btu (about 35 million barrels oil equivalent
pace of more than 4 percent per year since 2000, based on per day) higher than in the reference case. In the low
increased earnings from fossil fuel exports, strong global growth case, world energy consumption in 2030 is pro-
demand and favorable international prices for some jected to be 63 quadrillion Btu (32 million barrels oil
other export commodities, vigorous domestic demand, equivalent per day) lower than in the reference case.
and significant foreign direct investment and foreign aid Thus, the projections for 2030 in the high and low macro-
[18]. Africa’s combined economy is projected to grow at economic growth cases define a range of uncertainty
an average annual rate of 4.5 percent from 2005 to equal to 113 quadrillion Btu (Figure 17).
2030—a projection that is optimistic by historical stan-
dards but is supported by the region’s strong economic Alternative Price Cases
activity over the past 5 years, resulting from expansion
The impacts of energy prices on the level and composi-
of primary exports and robust domestic demand in
tion of energy demand are another large source of
many of Africa’s national economies. Nevertheless, both
uncertainty in the IEO2008 projections. To illustrate the
economic and political factors—such as low savings and
impacts, IEO2008 includes two alternative price cases. In
investment rates, lack of strong economic and political
the IEO2008 high price case, world oil prices (in nominal
institutions, limited quantity and quality of infrastruc-
terms) climb from $66 per barrel in 2006 to $186 per
ture and human capital, negative perceptions on the part
barrel in 2030; in the low price case, they decline to $46
of international investors, protracted civil unrest and
per barrel in 2016 and increase slowly thereafter to $69
political disturbances, and especially the impact of
per barrel in 2030; and by comparison, in the reference
HIV/AIDS on population growth—present formidable
case, they rise to $113 per barrel in 2030 (Figure 18).
obstacles to growth in a number of African countries.
Although the nations of Central and South America Despite the considerable difference between oil prices
registered a combined 6-percent increase in GDP in in the low and high price cases in 2030 (about $117 per
2004 (their best performance in 20 years), the region’s barrel), the projections for total world energy consump-
growth prospects have been hampered by a weak tion in the reference and alternative price cases do not
international credit environment, as well as domestic vary substantially. There is, however, a larger impact on
economic and/or political problems in a number of the energy mix. The projections for total world energy
countries. With economic growth in Central and South use in 2030 in the high and low price cases are separated
America remaining heavily dependent on foreign capi- by only 47 quadrillion Btu (Figure 19). In comparison,
tal flows, 3.9-percent average annual growth in GDP the difference between the low and high macroeconomic
is projected from 2005 through 2030. growth case projections is 113 quadrillion Btu.
Major Sources of Uncertainty Figure 17. World Marketed Energy Consumption

in the Projections in Three Economic Growth Cases,
1980-2030
Alternative Macroeconomic Growth Cases Quadrillion Btu
Expectations for the future rates of economic growth are High
a major source of uncertainty in the IEO2008 projections. 800 Economic
To illustrate the uncertainties associated with economic Growth
growth trends, IEO2008 includes a high macroeconomic Reference
growth case and a low macroeconomic growth case 600
Low
in addition to the reference case. The two alternative Economic
growth cases use different assumptions about future Growth
400
economic growth paths, while maintaining the same
relationship between changes in GDP and changes in
energy consumption that is used in the reference case. 200
In the high economic growth case, 0.5 percentage point
is added to the growth rate assumed for each country or History Projections
0
country grouping in the reference case. In the low eco- 1980 1995 2005 2015 2030
nomic growth case, 0.5 percentage point is subtracted Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
from the reference case growth rate. The IEO2008 refer- International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
ence case shows total world energy consumption reach- site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy
ing 695 quadrillion Btu in 2030—286 quadrillion Btu in Projections Plus (2008).

The potential effects of higher and lower oil prices on The most substantial impacts of the high and low price
world GDP can also be seen in the low and high price assumptions are on the mix of energy fuels consumed in
cases. In the long run, the projections for economic each region, particularly liquids and coal (Figure 20). In
growth are not affected substantially by the price the high price case, total world energy use in 2030 is
assumptions. The most significant variations are GDP about 27 quadrillion Btu lower, as is world liquids con-
increases of around 1 percent in the low price case rela- sumption, than projected in the reference case. Natural
tive to the reference case in 2015 for some regions out- gas consumption is also lower in 2030, by a more modest
side the Middle East and, in the oil-exporting Middle 8 quadrillion Btu, whereas the projections for coal,
East region only, a 1-percent drop in GDP in 2015. In nuclear power, and renewable energy consumption are
2030, however, there are virtually no differences among higher than those in the reference case.
GDP projections for any region in the different cases,
because the world’s economies have had more time to In the low price case, lower prices both allow consumers
adjust to the lower or higher prices. to increase their use of liquids for transportation pur-
poses and discourage the migration away from liquids
to other energy sources in sectors where fuel substitu-
Figure 18. World Oil Prices in Three Price Cases, tion is fairly easy to achieve (as opposed to the transpor-
1980-2030 tation sector, where there are relatively few alternatives
Nominal Dollars per Barrel to liquid fuels). Total liquids consumption in 2030 is
200
History Projections 20 quadrillion Btu higher in the low price case than
projected in the reference case, reflecting increased
demand in all the end-use sectors. The transportation
150 High World
Oil Price
sector shows the largest increase in liquids consumption
(7 quadrillion Btu) in 2030 in the low world oil price
Reference relative to the reference case (Figure 21).
100
In the IEO2008 reference case, world oil prices rise
steadily after 2015, to $113 per barrel in 2030. As a
50 result, liquids consumption is curtailed in countries
Low World
that have other fuel options available—especially in the
Oil Price
electric power sector, where coal and other fuels can
0 be substituted. In the reference case, worldwide use of
1980 1995 2005 2015 2030 liquids for electricity generation falls by 2.3 quadrillion
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Btu from 2005 to 2030. In the low price case, consump-
Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, tion of liquids for electricity generation increases by
June 2008), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo. 2.0 quadrillion Btu, as the non-OECD countries retain
their oil-fired generating capacity in the lower price
environment.
Figure 19. World Marketed Energy Consumption
in Three Price Cases, 2005-2030
Quadrillion Btu Figure 20. World Marketed Energy Consumption
800 in Three Price Cases, 2030
High Price Reference Low Price Quadrillion Btu
400
Liquids Coal Natural Gas Renewables
600
Nuclear
300
400
200
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), 0
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web Reference High Price Low Price
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy Source: Energy Information Administration, World Energy

Trends in Energy Intensity Historically, non-OECD Europe and Eurasia have had
Another major source of uncertainty in the projections is higher levels of energy intensity than either the OECD or
the changing relationship of energy use to GDP—or other non-OECD economies. In non-OECD Europe and
energy intensity—over time. Economic growth and Eurasia, energy consumption generally grew more rap-
energy demand are linked, but the strength of that link idly than GDP until 1990 (Figure 24), when the collapse
varies among regions. In the OECD nations, history of the Soviet Union created a situation in which both
shows the link to be a relatively weak one, with energy income and energy use declined but GDP fell more
demand lagging behind economic growth (Figure 22). In quickly. As a result, energy intensity increased. Only
the non-OECD nations, except for non-OECD Europe since the late 1990s, after the 1997 devaluation of the
and Eurasia, economic growth has been closely corre- Russian ruble, did the Russian and Ukrainian industrial
lated with energy demand growth for much of the past sectors begin to strengthen. Since then, economic
three decades (Figure 23). growth in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia has begun to
outpace growth in energy use significantly, and energy
intensity has begun a precipitous decline. The region’s
energy intensity is projected to continue declining in the
Figure 21. World Liquids Consumption in Three
Price Cases, 2030 IEO2008 reference case, while still remaining higher
Quadrillion Btu
than in any other part of the world (Figure 25).
300
The stage of economic development and the standard of
249 living of individuals in a given region strongly influence
250 229
the link between economic growth and energy demand.
202 Advanced economies with high living standards have
200 Electric Power
Commercial
relatively high levels of energy use per capita, but they
also tend to be economies where per-capita energy use is
150 Residential
stable or changes very slowly. In the OECD economies,
Industrial there is a high penetration rate of modern appliances
100 Transportation and motorized personal transportation equipment.
To the extent that spending is directed to energy-
50 consuming goods, it involves more often than not
0 purchases of new equipment to replace old capital
0 stock. The new stock generally is more efficient than
Reference High Price Low Price
the equipment it replaces, resulting in a weaker link
Source: Energy Information Administration, World Energy between income and energy demand in the future.
Figure 23. Growth in Energy Use and
Gross Domestic Product for the
Figure 22. Growth in Energy Use and Non-OECD Economies, 1980-2030
Gross Domestic Product for the Index, 1980 = 1
OECD Economies, 1980-2030 14
Index, 1980 = 1 History Projections
14 12
History Projections
12 10 Gross
Domestic
10 8 Product
8 6
6 Gross 4 Energy Use

Domestic
4 Product 2
2 0
1980 1995 2005 2015 2030
Energy Use
0 Note: Non-OECD economies in this figure exclude non-
1980 1995 2005 2015 2030 OECD Europe and Eurasia.

Figure 24. Growth in Energy Use and Figure 25. Energy Intensity by Region, 1980-2030
Gross Domestic Product for the Thousand Btu per 2000 Dollar of GDP
Non-OECD Economies of Europe 25
History Projections
and Eurasia, 1980-2030
Index, 1980 = 1
5 20
History Projections
Non-OECD
4 15 Europe and
Eurasia
OECD
3 Gross 10
Domestic
Product
2 5
Other Non-OECD
1 Energy Use 0
1980 1995 2005 2015 2030
Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Admin-
0 istration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-
1980 1995 2005 2015 2030
October 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections:
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008).
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy
6. Global Wind Energy Council, “Continuing Boom in
Wind Energy—20 GW of New Capacity in 2007,”
The pace of improvement in energy intensity may (Press Release, January 18, 2008), web site www.
change, given different assumptions of macroeconomic gwec.net.
growth over time. Faster growth in income generally
7. Commission of the European Communities, Renew-
leads to a faster rate of improvement (decline) in energy
able Energy Road Map, COM(206) 848 final (Brussels,
intensity. In the IEO2008 high macroeconomic growth
Belgium, January 10, 2007), web site http://
case, worldwide energy intensity is projected to decline
ec.europa.eu/energy/energy_policy/doc/03_
by 2.3 percent per year on average from 2005 to 2030, as
renewable_energy_roadmap_en.pdf.
compared with 2.2 percent in the reference case. On the
other hand, slower economic growth generally leads to a 8. European Wind Energy Association, “Wind Energy
slower rate of improvement in energy intensity. In the Leads EU Power Installations in 2007, But National
low macroeconomic growth case, world energy inten- Growth Is Inconsistent” (News Release, February 4,
sity is projected to decline by an average of only 2.0 per- 2008), web site www.ewea.org/fileadmin/ewea_
cent per year over the projection period. documents/mailing/PR_040208_2007stats.pdf.
9. After conversion (1 square meter = 10.76 square
References feet). Source: China Statistics 2005: Data from the
1. “Longtan Enters Operation,” Power in Asia, No. 494 National Bureau of Statistics of the Peoples Republic of
(January 3, 2008), p. 23. China, “Floor Space Completed and Housing Con-
2. “India Offers Hydropower Incentives,” Power in ditions of Urban and Rural Residents,” web site
Asia, No. 498 (February 28, 2008), pp. 6-7. www.allcountries.org/china_statistics/10_32_
floor_space_completed_and_housing.html.
3. “Private Players for Developing Hydro Projects in
Arunachal,” The Economic Times (December 19, 10. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook
2007), web site www.economictimes.indiatimes. 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), p. 422,
com. web site www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2006
/weo2006. pdf.
4. Global Insight, Inc., “Brazil: Country Reports: Util-
ity: Electricity” (February 8, 2008), web site www. 11. L. Zijun, “China Aims To Build Energy-Efficient
globalinsight.com. Society in Next Five Years” (Worldwatch Institute,
China Watch, October 20, 2005), web site www.
5. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy worldwatch.org/node/52.
Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(07), Table 8.11c, web
site www.eia.doe.gov/aer.

12. Indo-German Energy Programme, EnergyManager 15. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Out-
Training, “Cement Industry,” web site www. look October 2007:Globalization and Inequality (Wash-
energymanagertraining.com/cement/cement_01_ ington, DC, October 2007), web site www.imf.org/
process.htm; RealEstate.ru, “Russia’s Building external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/02/pdf/text.pdf.
Materials Industry Statistics for 2005” (May 22, 16. M. Mussa, “Global Economic Prospects 2007/2008:
2006), web site www.realestate.ru/eng/article. Moderately Slower Growth and Greater Uncer-
aspx?id=187; Portland Cement Association, “Over- tainty” (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for
view of the Cement Industry” (May 2003), web site International Economics, October 2007), web site
www.cement.org/basics/cementindustry.asp. www.iie.com/publications/papers/paper.cfm?
13. Energy Information Administration, International ResearchID=815.
Energy Annual 2005 (May-July 2007), web site www. 17. The International Bank for Reconstruction and
eia.doe.gov. Development / The World Bank, Global Economic
14. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Devel- Prospects 2008: Technology Diffusion in the Developing
opment, OECD Economic Outlook No. 80 (Paris, World (Washington, DC, December 2007), web site
France, November 2006), Annex Table 21, “Poten- www.worldbank.org/gep2008.
tial GDP, Employment and Capital Stock,” web site 18. United Nations, World Economic Situation and Pros-
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un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp2008files/wesp
2008.pdf.

Chapter 2
Liquid Fuels
World liquids consumption increases from 84 million barrels per day in 2005 to 99 million
barrels per day in 2030 in the IEO2008 high price case. In the reference case, which reflects
a price path that departs significantly from prices prevailing in the first 8 months of 2008,
liquids use rises to 113 million barrels per day in 2030.
The demand for liquid fuels and other petroleum4 reference case (Figure 27). World production of uncon-
increases strongly in the IEO2008 reference case. World ventional resources, which totaled only 2.5 million
use of liquids grows from 83.6 million barrels oil equiva- barrels per day in 2005, increases to 9.7 million barrels
lent per day5 in 2005 to 95.6 million barrels per day in per day in 2030, accounting for 9 percent of total world
2015 and 112.5 million barrels per day in 2030. Much of liquids supply in 2030 on an oil equivalent basis.
the increase in total liquids consumption is projected for Biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel, will be an
the nations of non-OECD Asia and the Middle East, increasingly important source of unconventional liquids
where strong economic growth is expected, and nearly supplies, largely because of the growth in U.S. biofuels
three-quarters is projected for use in the transportation production. In the IEO2008 reference case, U.S. biofuels
sector. production in 2030 is projected to be 1.2 million barrels
per day, accounting for nearly one-half of the increase in
In addition to the reference case, IEO2008 includes a world biofuels production over the projection period.
high price case that helps to quantify the uncertainty
associated with long-term projections of future oil World Liquids Consumption
prices. In the high price case, which reflects a price path
that is closer, in real terms, to prices prevailing during World liquids consumption in the IEO2008 reference
the first 8 months of 2008, world liquids consumption case increases from 84 million barrels per day in 2005
increases by only 0.7 percent per year on average from to 113 million barrels per day in 2030, mainly as a
2005 to 2030, as compared with 1.2 percent per year in result of increases among the emerging economies of
the reference case. World liquids use in the high price the world, where strong economic growth is expected
case totals 99.3 million barrels per day in 2030, as the liq- throughout the projection period. Liquids remain the
uids share of total energy consumption declines from 37
percent in 2005 to 30 percent in 2030. Figure 26. World Liquids Production in the
Reference Case, 1990-2030
To meet the increment in world liquids demand in Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day
the IEO2008 reference case, 28 million barrels per day of 125
History Projections
additional supply will be required by 2030 (Figure 26
and Table 3). In the reference case projections, sustained 100
high world oil prices bolster the economic prospects
for development of unconventional resources and Total
enhanced recovery of conventional resources, as well as 75
for conventional supplies in OPEC and a number of Non-OPEC Conventional
non-OPEC nations (such as Kazakhstan and Brazil) with 50
significant potential for development of conventional
resources. Total non-OPEC liquids production in 2030 is OPEC Conventional
projected to be 15 million barrels per day higher than in 25
2005, representing 53 percent of the increase in total Unconventional
world production over the 2005 total. 0
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
Unconventional resources (including oil sands, extra- Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
heavy oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids [CTL], and gas-to- International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
liquids [GTL]) from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources site www.eia.doe.gov/iea.. Projections: EIA, Generate World
are expected to become increasingly competitive in the Oil Balance Model (2008).
4 Liquid fuels and other petroleum (also referred to as liquids) include petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived fuels, such
as ethanol and biodiesel, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are natural gas liq-
uids, crude oil consumed as a fuel, and liquid hydrogen.
5 Throughout this chapter, liquids consumption and production are reported in million barrels oil equivalent per day.

Table 3. World Liquid Fuels Production, 2005-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Average Annual
Percent Change,
Source 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OPEC
a
Conventional Oil . . . . . . . . . . 35.3 36.5 39.8 43.0 45.3 47.7 1.2
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 3.0
Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 —
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
OPEC Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.1 37.4 40.9 44.4 46.7 49.3 1.3
Non-OPEC
a
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 —
Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.9 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.2 5.5
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 8.2
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.7 6.7
Non-OPEC Total . . . . . . . . . 48.2 51.8 54.7 57.0 59.8 63.2 1.1
World
a
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 3.2
Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.9 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.2 5.5
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 8.2
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 —
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.7 6.7
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.3 89.2 95.7 101.3 106.5 112.5 1.2
a
Includes conventional crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), and refinery gain.
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: Generate World
Oil Balance Model (2008).
Figure 27. World Production of Unconventional most important fuels for transportation, because there
Liquid Fuels, 2005-2030 are few alternatives that can compete widely with liquid
Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day fuels. With world oil prices remaining relatively high
12 through 2030, the increasing cost-competitiveness of
Gas-to-Liquids
non-liquid fuels causes many stationary uses of liquids
10 Coal-to-Liquids
(that is, for electric power generation and for end uses in
Extra-Heavy Oil the industrial and building sectors) to be replaced by
8 Biofuels alternative energy sources, which increases the trans-
Oil Sands/Bitumen portation share of liquids consumption. On a global
6 basis, the transportation sector accounts for 74 percent of
the total projected increase in liquids use from 2005 to
4 2030; the industrial sector accounts for virtually all of the
remainder (Figure 28).
2
Strong expansion of liquids use is projected for the
0 non-OECD countries, fueled by robust economic
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 growth, burgeoning industrial activity, and rapidly
Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), expanding transportation use. The most robust regional
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web growth in liquids consumption is projected for
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Generate World non-OECD Asia and the Middle East (Figure 29). In
Oil Balance Model (2008). non-OECD Asia, liquids use expands by 16 million

barrels per day over the projection period, from 15.3 mil- and many nations of the region have seen double-
lion barrels per day in 2005 to 30.8 million barrels per digit growth in automobile sales in recent years [3].
day in 2030. Among the nations of non-OECD Asia,
China and India account for much of the growth in liq- In contrast to the non-OECD nations, liquids consump-
uids demand, and together they account for 11.5 million tion in the OECD nations generally grows more slowly,
barrels per day (74 percent) of the regional increment in reflecting expectations of slow growth or declines in
liquids use. Liquids consumption in non-OECD Asia is population and relatively slow economic growth in
projected to surpass that in the United States (currently most of the OECD nations over the next two decades.
the world’s largest liquids-consuming nation) by 2020, Whereas liquids consumption in the non-OECD coun-
and in 2030 it is projected to exceed U.S. consumption by tries is expected to increase by 2.2 percent per year on
nearly 40 percent. average from 2005 to 2030, OECD liquids use increases
by 0.3 percent per year. Sustained high world oil prices
In the Middle East, liquids consumption is projected to are expected to have a more pronounced impact on the
increase by 3.6 million barrels per day from 2005 to 2030. use of liquids in the OECD countries, where many con-
Three major factors contribute to the growth in oil consumers are not shielded from high market prices by sub-
sumption in the Middle East: sidies like those in place in many of the larger
non-OECD consumer nations, including China, India,
•First, although the population in the Middle East and many of the OPEC member countries. As a result,
is relatively small, the nations of the region have OECD countries respond more rapidly to high oil prices
recorded relatively high birth rates over the past sev- in the IEO2008 reference case projection, switching away
eral decades, so that at present a substantial portion from liquids wherever possible and reducing demand in
of the population is young and reaching driving age, the transportation sector by adopting more efficient
increasing the demand for personal motorization [1]. motor vehicles and reducing vehicle-miles traveled.
•Second, energy use is heavily subsidized in many of
the resource-rich nations of the region. In Iran, for World Oil Prices
example, gasoline prices average $0.42 per gallon,
A major factor in the IEO2008 projections is the assump-
shielding consumers from the high free-market price
tion for future world oil prices. The impacts of world oil
of gasoline. As a result, consumption has continued
prices on energy demand are a considerable source of
to increase strongly in Iran, by an estimated 9 percent
uncertainty in the mid-term projections. Following the
per year since 2004 [2].
large increases in world oil prices over the past several
•Finally, many of the world’s major oil-exporting years, expectations for future prices also have been
nations are in the Middle East, and as world oil prices raised. In 2006 U.S. dollars, oil prices in the IEO2008
have continued to rise, so too have their per-capita reference case are about 94 percent higher in 2025
incomes. As standards of living have improved, than projections made only 5 years ago in EIA’s Interna-
demand for personal motorization has increased, tional Energy Outlook 2003. The world oil price cases in
Figure 28. World Liquids Consumption by Sector, Figure 29. World Liquids Consumption by Region
2005-2030 and Country Group, 2005 and 2030
Quadrillion Btu
400 North America
Commercial
Electricity Non-OECD Asia
Residential OECD Europe

300
Industrial OECD Asia
229
Transportation 206 217 Central and South America
194
200 181
170 Middle East
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 2005
100 Africa 2030
0 10 20 30 40
0 Million Barrels
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Oil Equivalent per Day
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis- Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-
tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October
2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World
Energy Projections Plus (2008). Energy Projections Plus (2008).

IEO2008 are consistent with those in the Annual Energy prevailed in the first 8 months of 2008, however, the high
Outlook 2008. price case appears to provide a better reflection of cur-
rent oil market conditions than does the IEO2008 refer-
In every year since 2003, the average price of West Texas ence case. The low and high price cases define a
Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, which is indicative of substantial range of $117 per barrel (in nominal dollars).
world oil prices as a whole, has been higher than the In the high price case, world oil prices in 2030 are nearly
average for the previous year. Prices in 2007 were nearly 65 percent higher than projected in the reference case, at
double 2003 prices in real terms. Prices rose further into $186 per barrel in nominal terms. Because high world oil
the third quarter of 2008. A variety of factors have prices slow the growth of demand in the long term,
caused the increases, including strong demand growth world liquids consumption in the high price case totals
in non-OECD Asia and the Middle East, no growth in only 99.3 million barrels per day in 2030, 13 million bar-
production from the members of the Organization of the rels per day lower than in the reference case.
Petroleum Exporting Countries6 (OPEC) since 2005, ris-
ing costs for oil exploration and development, across- In the long term, four factors determine the price of oil:
the-board increases in commodity prices, and a weaker growth in world liquids demand, high production costs
U.S. dollar. for accessible non-OPEC conventional liquids resources,
OPEC investment and production behavior, and the cost
In the IEO2008 reference case, prices ease somewhat in and availability of unconventional liquids supply. It is
the medium term, as anticipated new production—both essential to distinguish between factors that affect prices
conventional and unconventional (in Azerbaijan, Brazil, in the short term versus the long term, particularly given
Canada, Kazakhstan, and the United States, for exam- the current price environment.
ple)—reaches the marketplace. Ultimately, however,
markets are expected to remain relatively tight. In nomi- The reference case assumes that OPEC producers will
nal terms, world oil prices in the IEO2008 reference case choose to maintain their market share of world liquids
decline from their current highs to around $70 per barrel supply, and that OPEC member countries will invest in
in 2015, then rise steadily to $113 per barrel in 2030 ($70 incremental production capacity so that their conven-
per barrel in inflation-adjusted 2006 dollars). tional oil production represents approximately 40 per-
cent of total global liquids production throughout the
In addition to the reference case, IEO2008 includes high projection. As a result, strong economic growth, espe-
and low price cases, which help to quantify the consider- cially in the developing world, supports a consistent
able uncertainty associated with long-term projections upward trend in world oil prices after 2015.
of future oil prices (Figure 30). Given the price levels that
The composition of supply also differs substantially
Figure 30. Nominal World Oil Prices in Three between the reference and high price cases (Figure 31).
Cases, 1980-2030
Nominal Dollars per Barrel
200 Figure 31. World Liquids Supply in Three Cases,
High Price 2030
Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day
200
150 Unconventional
Non-OPEC Conventional
Reference
150 OPEC Conventional
100
5
10
100
50 58 19
Low Price
55
50
0
1980 1995 2007 2015 2030 59 48
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), 33
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web 0
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Low Price Reference High Price
Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June Source: Energy Information Administration, Generate World
2008), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo. Oil Balance Model (2008).
6 Ecuador officially rejoined OPEC on October 1, 2007. Throughout this chapter, all references to OPEC include Ecuador. In addition, all
time series have been updated to reflect country groupings as of March 1, 2008, so that Ecuador’s liquids production is included in the OPEC
totals for 1980 through 2030.

As prices rise in the high price case, the development supplies in 2030 are 14 million barrels per day higher
of previously uneconomical unconventional supplies than in the reference case. Non-OPEC conventional pro-
is encouraged. As a result, unconventional resources duction totals 58.4 million barrels per day in 2030 in the
account for a much larger portion of total liquids supply low price case, compared with 55.1 million barrels per
than in the reference case in 2030 (nearly 20 percent, as day in the reference case.
compared with about 9 percent in the reference case).
Conventional supplies decline over the projection Non-OPEC nations increase international access to
period in the high price case, by 1.5 million barrels per domestic resources in the low price case and improve
day, compared with an increase of 21.0 million barrel the financial regimes governing the extraction of those
per day in the reference case. The high price case resources. OPEC is assumed to increase its conventional
assumes that OPEC member countries will maintain liquids production share of total liquids to 48 percent in
their production at near current levels, and that they will 2030 from 42 percent in 2005. Changes in the political
be willing to sacrifice market share as demand for global and fiscal environments of the OPEC member countries
liquids continues to grow. The high price case also are expected to result in increased production of rela-
assumes that oil resources in non-OPEC countries will tively inexpensive conventional resources, thus reduc-
be less accessible and/or more expensive than assumed ing the economic competitiveness of unconventional
in the reference case. liquids production around the world and of conven-
tional liquids production in the industrialized OECD
Multiple factors restrict conventional liquids production nations and reducing unconventional liquids produc-
in the high price case, so that more expensive unconven- tion to approximately one-half the level projected in the
tional liquids are needed to meet world demand. In par- reference case.
ticular, access to non-OPEC resources is expected to be
limited, with resource-rich countries such as Kazakh-
stan and Mexico being unable to increase their conven- World Liquids Production
tional liquids production or unwilling to do so for In the IEO2008 reference case, world liquids production
geopolitical reasons. In addition, OPEC is expected to increases by 28 million barrels per day from 2005 to 2030
constrain total liquids production to current levels, to meet projected growth in demand. Increases in pro-
reducing the OPEC market share of conventional liquid duction are expected for both OPEC and non-OPEC pro-
supplies to 33 percent in 2030 in the high price case. ducers. About 47 percent of the total world increase in
Although conventional production in the OECD coun- liquids supplies is expected to come from OPEC mem-
tries decreases slightly (by 4 percent over the 2005-2030 ber countries. Thus, in 2030, OPEC production is pro-
period), their total liquids production (both conven- jected to total 49 million barrels per day and non-OPEC
tional and unconventional) is expected to increase rela- production 63 million barrels per day.
tive to the reference case, as higher prices make the
extraction of additional barrels of unconventional petro- The reference case assumes that OPEC producers will
leum liquids, such as oil sands, more economical. The choose to maintain their market share of world liquids
higher prices and limited access to conventional re- supply, and that OPEC member countries will invest in
sources also result in more significant increases in pro- incremental production capacity so that their conven-
duction of unconventional liquids in non-OPEC tional oil production represents approximately 40 per-
developing countries than are projected in the reference cent of total global liquids production throughout the
case. projection. Increasing volumes of conventional liquids
(crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant
In the low price case, OPEC is assumed to increase its liquids, and refinery gain) from OPEC members contrib-
conventional oil production to obtain approximately a ute 12.4 million barrels per day to the total increase in
44-percent share of total world liquids production. The world liquids production, and conventional liquids sup-
low price case also assumes that conventional oil plies from non-OPEC countries add another 8.6 million
resources in non-OPEC countries will be more accessible barrels per day.
and/or less costly to bring to market, because of more
rapid technology advances, more attractive fiscal The IEO2008 projections are based on a two-stage ana-
regimes, or both, than in the reference case. As a result, lytical approach. Projections of liquids production
non-OPEC conventional oil production is higher in the before 2015 are based largely on a project-by-project
low price case than in the reference case. Nominal world assessment of production volumes and associated
oil prices decline to about $46 per barrel in 2016 in the scheduling timelines, with consideration given to the
low price case, before climbing to $69 per barrel in 2030. decline rates of active projects, planned exploration and
The low world oil prices discourage fuel conservation development activity, and country-specific geopolitical
and reduce the incentive for development of non- situations and fiscal regimes. There are often lengthy
petroleum liquids. In the low price case, conventional delays between the point at which supply projects are

announced and when they begin producing. The exten- Non-OPEC Production
sive and detailed information available about such pro- The world oil prices projected in the IEO2008 reference
jects, including project scheduling and the investment case are expected to encourage producers in non-OPEC
and development plans of companies and countries, nations to continue investment in conventional liquids
makes it possible to take a detailed approach to model- production capacity and increase investment in
ing supply. enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects and unconven-
tional liquids production. Non-OPEC production
Because projects generally are not publicized more than
increases steadily in the projection, from 48 million bar-
7 to 10 years before their first production, project-by-
rels per day in 2005 to 63 million barrels per day in 2030,
project analyses are unlikely to provide an accurate rep-
as high prices attract investment in areas previously con-
resentation of company or country production plans
sidered uneconomical.
and achievable production volumes after 2015. Instead,
production decisions made after 2015 are assumed to be Non-OPEC conventional liquids production in the refer-
based predominantly on resource availability and the ence case increases from 47 million barrels per day in
resulting economic viability of production. Geopolitical 2005 to 50 million barrels per day in 2015 and 55 million
and other “above-ground” constraints7 are not assumed barrels per day in 2030. Unconventional liquids produc-
to disappear entirely after 2015, however. Longstanding tion from non-OPEC suppliers rises to 5 million barrels
above-ground factors for which there are no indications per day in 2015 and 8 million barrels per day in 2030. In
of significant future changes—for instance, the govern- the high price case, non-OPEC unconventional liquids
ment-imposed investment conditions currently in place production rises to 16 million barrels per day in 2030, as
in Iran, or OPEC adherence to production quotas—are high prices encourage the development of these alterna-
expected to continue to affect world supplies long after tive fuel sources. In contrast, in the low price case, fewer
2015. unconventional resources become economically com-
petitive, and non-OPEC production of unconventional
For some resource-rich countries it is assumed that liquids rises to only 4 million barrels per day in 2030.
current political barriers to increasing production will
not continue after 2015. For instance, both Mexico and Among non-OPEC producers, the lack of prospects for
Venezuela currently have legislation that restricts for- new, large conventional petroleum liquids projects and
eign ownership of hydrocarbon resources. Their nation- declines in production from existing conventional fields
alization of resources has discouraged investment— result in heavy investment in the development of
both foreign and domestic—and hindered their ability smaller fields. Producers are expected to concentrate
to increase or even maintain historical production lev- their efforts on more efficient exploitation of fields
els. In the reference case, both Mexico and Venezuela already in production, either through the use of more
are assumed to ease restrictions at some point after advanced technology for primary recovery efforts or
2015, allowing some additional foreign investment or through EOR. Those efforts are expected to allow
involvement in their oil sectors that will facilitate non-OPEC producers to maintain or slow production
increases in liquids production, including from deep- declines but not to raise production volumes.
water prospects in Mexico and heavy oils in Venezuela’s
Orinoco belt. Large increases in non-OPEC production of conven-
tional petroleum liquids are expected to come from
Iraq is another resource-rich country where currently regions with recent large discoveries that have high
there are significant impediments to investment in the undiscovered resource potential but are not yet produc-
upstream hydrocarbon sector. Liquids production in ing. Significant gains in conventional production are
Iraq dropped substantially after the U.S.-led invasion in projected for the Caspian area (Kazakhstan) and South
2003. From 2003 to 2004 production declined from 2.0 America (Brazil) (Figure 32). Canada also is expected to
million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and be a major non-OPEC supplier of liquids, with bitumen
it has been relatively slow to recover since then, not yet (oil sands) production more than compensating for pro-
reaching the peak production level of 2.6 million barrels jected declines in its conventional oil production.
per day that was achieved in 2000. Although Iraq’s pro-
duction levels are not expected to increase substantially The most significant decline in non-OPEC liquids pro-
in the near term, it is assumed that the conflict will end duction is projected for the North Sea, which includes
eventually and that renewed investment and develop- offshore production from Norway, the United King-
ment activity will ensue, resulting in fairly significant dom, the Netherlands, and Germany. The production
growth in production from 2015 through 2030. projections for the North Sea are lower in IEO2008 than
7 “Above-ground” constraints refer to those nongeological factors that might affect supply, including: government policies that limit
access to resources; conflict; terrorist activity; lack of technological advances or access to technology; price constraints on the economical
development of resources; labor shortages; materials shortages; weather; and other short- and long-term geopolitical considerations.

they were in IEO2007, because the anticipated rates of geographical position, on the opening of export routes—
production decline are steeper than expected previously a task that will require regional cooperation.
and because of delays in the startup of offshore fields by
Norway and by the United Kingdom (which accounted Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are other Caspian pro-
for a combined 98 percent of total North Sea production ducers expected to increase their production in the refer-
in 2006). Although the long-term projections of produc- ence case. Turkmenistan’s production is projected to
tion levels have been reduced, there are positive indica- grow by more than 6 percent per year in the mid-term
tions of future prospects for both Norway (with the and somewhat more slowly in the long term, in light of
opening of the Barents Sea for exploration) and the the government’s evolving attitude toward foreign
United Kingdom (with the development of Buzzard investment. Azerbaijan’s production is projected to
field). grow rapidly, to a peak production of 1.3 million barrels
per day in the next decade, followed by a decline to 1.0
Liquids production from non-OECD Europe and Eur- million barrels per day in 2030.
asian producers rises from 11.9 million barrels per day in
2005 to 18.9 million barrels per day in 2030. More than In Central and South America, Brazil’s liquids produc-
one-half of the increase is attributed to production tion is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.4
increases in Russia, which is the country with the largest percent from 2005 to 2030, resulting in an increase of 3.8
projected increase (by volume) in non-OPEC liquids million barrels per day over the period. Capacity expan-
production in the IEO2008 reference case, at 4.0 million sions at Brazil’s currently producing fields result in pro-
barrels per day from 2005 to 2030. duction increases through 2015, and recent discoveries
in the Campos and Santos Basins—which suggest the
The Caspian Basin region accounts for a sizable portion presence of other large fields in the same formation—are
of the liquids production projected for non-OECD projected to lead to additional production increases in
Europe and Eurasia in IEO2008. Overall, production the longer term.
from the Caspian Basin is projected to grow at an aver-
age rate of 3.6 percent per year, resulting in an increment North America’s conventional liquids production is pro-
of 3.0 million barrels per day over the 2005-2030 period. jected to fall by an average of 0.5 percent per year from
Kazakhstan alone accounts for 2.3 million barrels per 2005 to 2030, mainly as a consequence of the expected
day of the projected increase, primarily as a result of exhaustion of attractive conventional prospects in Can-
the development of its Kashagan field and the expansion ada and a lack of available capital for the development of
of gas reinjection at Tengiz, but also because undiscov- conventional resources in Mexico, especially in the
ered fields in its Caspian territory are expected to deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Increasingly, North Amer-
be developed before 2030. The growth of Kazakhstan’s ica’s future liquids production is expected to rely on
production will depend not only on resource availability unconventional production—especially, from Canada’s
and extractability, however, but also, because of its bitumen resources. In total, North America’s liquids
production is projected to increase by 2.9 million barrels
per day over the period, at an average annual rate of 0.7
Figure 32. Non-OPEC Conventional Liquids percent.
Production by Region, 2005 and 2030
In the United States, total liquids production increases
Russia
from 8.2 million barrels per day in 2005 to 10.3 million
United States barrels per day in 2022, then falls to 9.8 million barrels
Asia per day in 2030. The near-term profile of U.S. liquids
North Sea production is determined largely by lower 48 offshore
production. Deepwater production in the Gulf of Mex-
Central and South America
ico increases from just under 1.0 million barrels per day
Canada in 2005 to a peak of 2.0 million barrels per day between
Africa 2013 and 2019 before beginning to decline. U.S. biofuels
Caspian Area 2005 production is projected to rise from 0.2 million barrels
2030 per day in 2005 to 1.2 million barrels per day in 2030 (on
Other Non-OPEC
an oil equivalent basis), with the United States account-
0 5 10 15 ing for nearly one-half of the total increment in world
Million Barrels biofuels production in the IEO2008 reference case.
Oil Equivalent per Day
Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), In Africa, almost 70 percent of non-OPEC conventional
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web liquids production currently comes from four countries:
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: Energy Information Adminis- Egypt (28 percent), Equatorial Guinea (16 percent),
tration, Generate World Oil Balance Model (2008). Sudan (15 percent), and Congo-Brazzaville (10 percent).

In combination, the four are expected to retain approxi- increase biofuels and CTL production. Unconventional
mately a 70-percent share of Africa’s non-OPEC conven- liquids production in China rises to 0.4 million barrels
tional production through 2030. Although the resources per day in 2030, with CTL accounting for 65 percent and
of Egypt, the current top producer of conventional biofuels the remainder. In India, unconventional pro-
petroleum liquids, are well developed and primary duction rises to 0.2 million barrels per day in 2030, with
recovery from many of its fields already is in decline, 44 percent attributed to CTL and 56 percent to biofuels.
secondary recovery and EOR efforts are expected to sta- Advances in technologies—for instance, direct coal liq-
bilize Egypt’s production from previously developed uefaction that would improve the efficiency of CTL pro-
reservoirs in the mid-term. In 2030, Sudan is expected to duction and make it more economical—are not expected
be the largest non-OPEC producer in Africa, at 0.9 mil- to become commercially viable until late in the projec-
lion barrels per day, with most of the growth occurring tion period.
after 2020.
OPEC Production
Conventional liquids production in Congo-Brazzaville OPEC’s total liquids production increases at a 1.3-per-
more than doubles in the IEO2008 reference case, from cent average annual rate from 2005 to 2030 in the
0.2 million barrels per day in 2005 to 0.6 million barrels IEO2008 reference case, resulting in the production of
per day in 2030, which would make it the region’s third 49.3 million barrels of liquids per day in 2030, of which
largest non-OPEC producer. Recent field discoveries, 31.8 million barrels per day originates in the Middle East
including Moho Nord Marine 1 and Pegase Nord (Figure 33). By volume, the largest increase in the indi-
Marine 1, have served both to increase international vidual OPEC countries’ liquids production is projected
interest in the region and to promote the possibility of for Saudi Arabia: from 11.1 million barrels per day in
additional large finds in the future. Given that most of 2005 to 13.7 million barrels per day in 2030.
the recent discoveries have been in deepwater locations
where there has been little previous exploration, growth The most rapid growth in OPEC production is projected
in the country’s production is expected to come from for Qatar, where total liquids production rises at an
known and potential deepwater resources. average annual rate of 4.3 percent over the projection
period, including an increase in GTL production to 0.2
Non-OPEC producers in Asia are projected to increase million barrels per day in 2030. In addition, Qatar’s
their total liquids production from 7.2 million barrels NGPL production increases at an average annual rate of
per day in 2005 to 8.6 million barrels per day in 2030. 6.1 percent, and its crude oil and condensate production
China is Asia’s largest non-OPEC producer of total liq- increases by an average of 3.1 percent per year.
uids by far, at 3.7 million barrels per day in 2005, fol-
lowed by India at 0.8 million barrels per day, and The second-fastest growth rate in liquids production
Malaysia at 0.7 million barrels per day. China’s produc- among the OPEC countries is projected for Angola, aver-
tion is expected to be maintained at about 4.0 million aging 3.7 percent per year from 2005 to 2030. Almost all
barrels per day through 2030, and India’s production is
projected to increase to slightly more than 1.2 million
barrels per day in 2030. Figure 33. OPEC Conventional Liquids Production
by Region, 2005 and 2030
Liquids production from Australia/New Zealand is
projected to increase from 0.6 million barrels per day in Middle East
2005 to 0.7 million barrels per day in 2030. Near-term
increases in crude oil and condensate production are
West Africa
expected for both Australia and New Zealand, mainly as
a result of recent discoveries and developments in off-
shore basins (such as the Carnarvon Basin). A decline to North Africa
lower, relatively stable production levels is projected
over the longer term. For both countries, production of South America
natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) is projected to remain
2005
around current levels in the near term, followed by sig-
nificant growth as recently discovered large fields are Asia 2030
developed and the natural gas is extracted and pro-
cessed. With the expected surge in NGPL production, 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
total conventional liquids production is projected to Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day
increase slightly from 2005 to 2030. Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
In addition to increasing their production of conven- site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: Energy Information Adminis-
tional liquids, both China and India are expected to tration, Generate World Oil Balance Model (2008).

the increase is expected to consist of crude oil and lease of the IEO2008 projection. In the reference case, 8.6
condensate production from offshore projects. Estab- percent of world liquids supply in 2030 is projected to
lished OPEC production targets (in December 2007, come from unconventional sources, including 1.6 mil-
Angola received a target of 1.9 million barrels per day) lion barrels per day originating from OPEC and 8.1
are not expected to impede project development in million from non-OPEC countries. Although uncon-
Angola, and its production in 2030 is projected to be 3.1 ventional production volumes vary between the IEO-
million barrels per day in the reference case. 2008 price cases (from 19.0 percent in the high price case
to 4.0 percent in the low price case), the geographic loca-
Iraq’s liquids production also grows substantially, by an tions and types of unconventional production remain
average of 3.1 percent per year, depending on develop- relatively unchanged.
ments in the country’s political situation. The IEO2008
projections assume that the conflict in Iraq will be re- OPEC’s unconventional production consists predomi-
solved well before 2030, making resource availability the nantly of extra-heavy Orinoco oil production in Vene-
main determining factor in its ability to meet growing zuela and GTL production in Qatar, with 2030
domestic demand. From 2005 to 2015, Iraq’s liquid fuels production volumes ranging from 1.1 to 2.1 million bar-
production is projected to grow by only 1.4 percent per rels per day and 0.2 to 0.5 million barrels per day, respec-
year, but from 2015 to 2030 the average annual growth tively, in the high and low price cases. Although the
rate increases to 4.3 percent. resources to support production at those levels abound
in the two countries, large investments will be required
Total liquids production in Iran also is expected to be to produce them, and the timing of such investments is
restricted by geopolitical factors through 2015. Those uncertain.
factors are not limited to international relations but also
include a variety of other non-resource-related factors Outside the OPEC member countries, unconventional
that range from the effectiveness of the national oil com- liquids production comes from a much more diverse
pany’s operations to the ability of the government and group of countries and resource types. As a whole,
foreign investors to agree on contractual terms. In the non-OPEC unconventional liquids production is pro-
IEO2008 reference case, Iran’s oil production remains jected to increase by more than 6.4 million barrels per
relatively stable through 2015, both because of financial day from 2005 to 2030, with 72.4 percent coming from
and political constraints on developing new oil or natu- OECD countries. By volume, the largest contributors to
ral gas prospects and because of anticipated competing the non-OPEC increase are expected to be bitumen
demands for natural gas that would limit its use (and (Canadian oil sands) and biofuels, with production
thus effectiveness) for improving oil recovery through increases of 3.1 and 2.2 million barrels oil equivalent per
natural gas reinjection. The reference case does not pro- day, respectively, from 2005 to 2030.
ject large increases in Iran’s liquids production, because
it does not assume improvements in either the political Although bitumen and biofuels are viewed as having
or investment environment for the country. the most potential for significant contributions to global
liquids supply, they also show the most significant vari-
For Venezuela, liquids production is constrained by ations in production levels among the price cases as a
investor concerns over government actions that nation- result of the effects of different price assumptions on
alized the upstream hydrocarbon sector, as well as the production economics and competing supply from con-
possibility of further mandated changes in contract ventional liquids. The projected increases from 2005 to
terms. Venezuela’s total liquids production falls some- 2030 in Canada’s bitumen production range from less
what in the reference case, from 2.9 million barrels per than 0.3 million barrels per day in the low price case to
day in 2005 to 2.5 million barrels per day in 2010, before 7.6 million barrels per day in the high price case, and the
beginning a steady recovery to 3.5 million barrels per increases in biofuels production ranging from 1.2 mil-
day in 2030. This is a much more pessimistic outlook for lion barrels per day in the low price case to 3.7 million
Venezuela’s production profile than in past IEOs. In barrels per day in the high price case. In the reference
IEO1999, which was published only a month after Hugo case, the most significant increases in biofuels produc-
Chavez assumed the Venezuelan Presidency, the coun- tion from 2005 to 2030 are projected for the United States
try’s annual liquids production was projected to reach (1.0 million barrels per day) and Brazil (0.5 million bar-
5.5 million barrels per day in 2020—2.4 million barrels rels per day). Increases of approximately 60 thousand
per day more than projected in the IEO2008 reference barrels per day are projected for South Africa, China,
case. India, and Argentina.
Unconventional Production Like biofuels production, CTL production volumes vary
Unconventional liquids play an increasingly important among the price cases, although they do not add as
role in meeting demand for liquid fuels over the course much to total liquids production. In the low price case,

South Africa is the largest CTL supplier, producing Oil & Gas Journal, 56 percent of the world’s proved oil
112,000 barrels per day in 2030, with China, India, and reserves are located in the Middle East (Figure 34).
the United States contributing smaller volumes. In the Among the top 20 reserve holders in 2008, 11 are OPEC
reference case, the United States and China increase member countries that, together, account for 69 percent
their CTL production by 242,000 and 246,000 barrels per of the world’s total reserves (Table 4).
day, respectively, from 2005 to 2030; South Africa
increases its production by only 209,000 barrels per day Proved reserves of crude oil are the estimated quantities
but still remains the dominant CTL supplier, at 340,000 that geological and engineering data demonstrate with
barrels per day in 2030. In the high price case, improved reasonable certainty can be recovered in future years
production economics result in the expansion of CTL from known reservoirs, assuming existing technology
projects around the world and the production of 2.7 mil- and current economic and operating conditions. Com-
lion barrels per day in 2030—2.5 million barrels per day panies whose stocks are publicly traded on U.S. stock
more than was produced in 2005. markets are required by the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) to report their holdings of
In all three cases, non-OPEC production of extra-heavy domestic and international proved reserves, following
oil, GTL, and shale oil contributes a relatively small frac- specific guidelines. Country-level estimates of proved
tion of liquids to the world market. Mexico is expected to reserves are developed from the data reported to the
be the only non-OPEC supplier of extra-heavy oil, with SEC, from foreign government reports, and from inter-
volumes ranging from 19,000 to 120,000 barrels per day national geologic assessments. Estimates are not always
in 2030 in the low and high price cases, respectively. In updated annually.
the reference and low price cases, South Africa is the
world’s only non-OPEC supplier of GTL; however, in Whereas proved reserves include only those estimated
the high price case the United States and South Africa quantities of crude oil from known reservoirs, they are
produce approximately the same volumes, at just over only a subset of the entire potential oil resource base.
120,000 barrels per day in 2030. Similarly, shale oil pro- Resource base estimates include estimated quantities of
duction is expected to originate from only one country in both discovered and undiscovered liquids that have the
the reference and low price cases (Estonia), but in the
high price case the United States produces 144,000 bar- Table 4. World Oil Reserves by Country as of
rels of shale oil per day in 2030. January 1, 2008
(Billion Barrels)
Oil Reserves and Resources Country Oil Reserves
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . 264.3
As of January 1, 2008, proved world oil reserves, as
reported by the Oil & Gas Journal, were estimated at Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178.6
1,332 billion barrels—14 billion barrels (about 1 percent) Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138.4
higher than the estimate for 2007 [4]. According to the Iraq. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115.0
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.5
United Arab Emirates. . . . . 97.8
Figure 34. World Proved Oil Reserves
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.0
by Geographic Region as of
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60.0
January 1, 2008
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.5
Middle East 748 Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.2
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.0
North America 211
United States . . . . . . . . . . . 21.0
Africa 115 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.0
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2
Central & South America 110 Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.2
Eurasia 99 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.2
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7
World Total:
Asia 34 Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0
1,332 Billion Barrels
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0
Europe 14
Norway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9
0 200 400 600 800 Rest of World . . . . . . . . . . . 70.3
Billion Barrels World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,331.7
Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil &
Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007), pp. 24-25. Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007), pp. 24-25.

potential to be classified as reserves at some time in the because of the particularly rigid requirements for the
future. The resource base may include oil that currently classification of resources as proved reserves, particu-
is not technically recoverable but could conceivably larly by the U.S. SEC,8 even the cumulative production
become recoverable in the future as technologies levels from individual development projects may
advance. exceed the initial estimates of proved reserves.
Readers may notice that, in some cases in the IEO2008 EIA attempts to address the lack of applicability of
projections, country-level volumes for cumulative pro- proved reserves estimates to long-term production pro-
duction through 2030 exceed the estimates of proved jections by developing a production methodology based
reserves. This does not imply that resources and the on the true physical limits of production (see box on
physical limits of production have not been considered page 34). By basing the long-term EIA production
in the development of production forecasts, or that the assessments on resources, rather than reserves, EIA is
projections assume a rapid decline in production imme- able to present projections that are physically achievable
diately after the end of the projection period as reserves and can be supported beyond the 2030 projection hori-
are depleted. EIA carefully considers resource availabil- zon in IEO2008. The realization of such production lev-
ity in all long-term country-level projections, the aggre- els depends, however, on future growth in world
gation of which gives the total world production demand, taking into consideration such above-ground
projection; however, proved reserves are not an appro- limitations on production as profitability and specific
priate measure for judging total resource availability in national regulations, among others.
the long run.
References
In order to construct realistic and plausible projections 1. “Middle East Population Growth Poses Huge
for liquids production, and especially for petroleum liq- Change for Middle East and North Africa,” Interna-
uids production, underlying analysis must both con- tional Herald Tribune (January 18, 2007); and United
sider production beyond the intended end of the Nations Population Fund, web site www.unfpa.
projection period and base production projections on org/worldwide (accessed April 23, 2008).
the physical realities and limitations of production. The 2. International Energy Agency, “Oil Market Report”
importance of approaching an assessment of liquids (March 11, 2008), p. 18, web site http://omrpublic.
production in this way is illustrated by the recent history iea.org/omrarchive/11mar08full.pdf; and Middle
of U.S. reserve estimates. Whereas the United States East Economic Survey, Vol. 50, No. 13 (March 26,
reported 22.1 billion barrels of proved reserves in 1998, 2007), web site www.mees.com (subscription site)
proved reserves of 21.0 billion barrels were reported in
3. R. Kirk, “Explosive Oil Consumption Growth in the
2008—a decrease of only 1.1 billion barrels despite the
Top Oil Exporting States,” Energy Bulletin (July 25,
cumulative 32.1 billion barrels of liquids supplied from
2006), web site www.energybulletin.net/node/
U.S. reserves between 1998 and 2007.
18475.
Proved reserves cannot provide an accurate assessment 4. “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil
of the physical limits on future production but rather are & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007),
intended to provide insight as to company- or country- pp. 24-25, web site www.ogj.com (subscription
level development plans in the very near term. In fact, site).
8 The U.S. SEC guidelines are seen as particularly rigid because of the limited extraction technologies they recognize, and because they
base the economic viability of reserves on oil prices for the last day of trading in a year rather than an annual average. Under current rules, a
company can generally meet the “reasonable certainty” standard necessary to establish proved reserves only by using actual production or
flow tests. In June 2008, the SEC formally proposed changes to the guidelines that would not only expand the extraction technologies recog-
nized and the price used to determine economic viability but also expand the resources eligible to be classified as oil reserves by including
oil sands and other unconventional oil deposits.

Defining the Limits of Oil Production
Preparing mid-term projections of oil production ultimate recovery factor is larger than the current
requires an assessment of the availability of resources recovery factor, which is defined as the sum of cumula-
to meet production requirements, particularly for the tive production plus remaining reserves as a percent-
later years of the 2005-2030 projection period in IEO- age of IIP. Typically, estimates of the current recovery
2008. The IEO2008 oil production projections were factor for a particular field increase over time, reflect-
limited by three factors: the estimated quantity of ing the effects of three interrelated factors: technology,
petroleum in place before production begins (“petro- economics, and knowledge about the field.
leum-initially-in-place” or IIP), the percentage of IIP
extracted over the life of a field (ultimate recovery fac- In general, as producers develop a field they learn
tor), and the amount of oil that can be produced from a more about its characteristics and are able to apply
field in a single year as a function of its remaining additional or more efficient recovery techniques. In
reserves. addition, the efficiency of recovery can also be
improved by developments in technology, either in the
Total IIP resources are the quantities of petroleum— oil industry specifically (such as new reservoir fractur-
both conventional and unconventional—estimated to ing techniques) or in industry generally (such as more
exist originally in naturally occurring accumulations.a powerful computer processors). Such efficiency gains
IIP resources are those quantities of petroleum which can lower the cost of extracting a field’s reserves signif-
are estimated, on a given date, to be contained in icantly, making production more profitable and lower-
known accumulations, plus those quantities already ing the price at which production is justified.
produced, as well as those estimated quantities in accu-
mulations yet to be discovered. The estimate of IIP Remaining reserves, by definition, are limited to those
resources includes both recoverable and unrecoverable quantities considered economical to produce. Thus,
resources. estimates of current recovery factors based on reserves
are affected by changes in production costs, oil prices,
Published estimates of global IIP resources vary and fiscal regimes (such as tax rates). Estimates of cur-
widely across sources, from about 13 trillion barrels to rent recovery factors can decline if adverse economic
more than 24 trillion barrels. An estimate of 20.8 trillion factors—such as low oil prices, high production taxes,
barrels is used for the IEO2008 reference case (see table or inadequate investment in field maintenance—arise
below). Conventional crude oil and lease condensate and are expected to persist. For example, the two latter
account for about 40 percent (9 trillion barrels) of the factors currently affect both Russia and Venezuela.
total IIP worldwide, and unconventional petroleum
resources account for the remainder. For instance, Current recovery factors for oil fields around the world
there are an estimated 2.3 trillion barrels of extra-heavy typically range between 10 and 60 percent; some are
oil in Venezuela and an estimated 2.1 trillion barrels of over 80 percent. The wide variance is due largely to the
petroleum in shale rock in the United States alone. diversity of fluid and reservoir characteristics for dif-
ferent deposits. For example, Canada’s oil sands are
The second factor that limits oil production is the ulti- markedly different from Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field
mate recovery factor. For most producing fields, the (continued on page 35)
Petroleum-Initially-In-Place Resource Estimates Used in the IEO2008 Reference Case

(Trillion Barrels)
Resource OPEC Middle East Other OPEC United States Other Non-OPEC Total
Conventional Crude and Condensate . . 2.6 2.6 0.9 2.9 9.0
Natural Gas Plant Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.2
Extra-Heavy Crude. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 2.3
Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.4
Shale Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.7 2.8
Source Rock. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.3 1.0 3.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 6.1 3.5 7.4 20.8
Sources: I.H.S. Energy, web site http://energy.ihs.com (subscription site); U.S. Geological Survey, “Oil and Gas Resources,” web site
http://energy.usgs.gov/oilgas.html; Nehring Associates, “Significant Oil and Gas Fields of the United States Database,” web site www.
nehringdatabase.com (subscription site); World Energy Council, “Survey of Energy Resources 2007," (London, UK, September 2007), web site
www.worldenergy.org/documents/ser2007_final_online_version_1.pdf; and EIA analysis.
aWorld Petroleum Council, “Petroleum Resources,” The WPC Newsletter, No. 20 (January 2000), web site www.world-petroleum.org/
newsletter/issue20.htm.

Defining the Limits of Oil Production (Continued)
in terms of both fluid properties and the geophysical areas that already are in production or open to
characteristics of the rock that contains the oil. For the exploration.
global average ultimate recovery factor, petroleum
engineers often cite a value of one-third for conven- An additional factor limiting oil production is the frac-
tional oil deposits; however, no verifiable studies have tion of a field’s reserves that can be produced in a given
been conducted to estimate ultimate recovery factors at year—which in turn is affected both by the physical
the field level for all fields worldwide. Even if such a characteristics of oil flowing through a porous rock res-
study were conducted it would not provide a definitive ervoir and by financial considerations. Oil flows more
value for the upper limit of global recovery, because slowly through fields with thicker oil and/or lower
technologies, oil prices, and taxes change over time. permeability. Unless a field is close to the end of its pro-
ductive life, it is physically difficult to produce more
In 2005, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned than 10 to 15 percent of its remaining reserves in a sin-
“basin potential studies,” with the goal of providing gle year. From a financial standpoint, oil producers
a better understanding of the potential impact of maximize returns on investment by matching the tim-
technology advances on recovery factors for conven- ing of investments to the timing of physical oil produc-
tional oil in the United States.b The results suggested tion. They will lose money if they expand production
that long-term recovery factors in the United States facilities by too much or too long before the oil begins
could vary from as little as 40 percent for mid-continent to flow.
resources to as much as 72 percent for resources in
the Gulf Coast States. To put those percentages in On a field-by-field or regional basis, the proportion of
perspective, cumulative U.S. oil production as a reserves produced in a single year may vary widely.
percentage of estimated discovered IIP averages 33 For example, in the United States, 13.3 percent of the
percent and ranges from 23 percent to 44 percent, onshore reserves in Texas and 5.1 percent of the
depending on the U.S. region. The studies suggest reserves in Utah were produced in 2006. For the United
that improvements in technology have the potential States as a whole, 7.9 percent of reserves were pro-
to raise ultimate recovery factors to 60 percent for U.S. duced in 2006.
bOffice of Fossil Energy – Office of Oil and Natural Gas, U.S. Department of Energy, “Ten Basin-Oriented CO2-EOR Assessments
Examine Strategies for Increasing Domestic Oil Production” (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Arlington, VA, February
2006), web site http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/oilgas/eor/Ten_Basin-Oriented_CO2-EOR_Assessments.html; and Evaluating the
Potential for “Game Changer” Improvements in Oil Recovery Efficiency from CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (prepared by V.A. Kuuskraa and
G.J. Koperna, Advanced Resources International, Arlington, VA, February 2006), web site http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/oilgas/
publications/eor_co2/Game_Changer_Document_2_06_with_appendix.pdf.

Chapter 3
Natural Gas
In the IEO2008 reference case, natural gas consumption in the non-OECD countries grows
more than twice as fast as in the OECD countries. Production increases in the non-OECD
region account for more than 90 percent of the growth in world production from 2005 to 2030.
Worldwide, total natural gas consumption increases OECD countries. In the IEO2008 reference case, natural
from 104 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 158 trillion cubic gas consumption in the non-OECD countries grows
feet in 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case (Figure 35). more than twice as fast as consumption in the OECD
World oil prices are expected to remain high, and as a countries, with 2.3-percent average annual growth from
result natural gas replaces oil wherever possible. In 2005 to 2030 for non-OECD countries, compared with an
addition, because natural gas produces less carbon average of 1.0 percent for the OECD countries. Natural
dioxide when it is burned than does either coal or petro- gas demand in the non-OECD countries accounts for 74
leum, governments implementing national or regional percent of the total world increment in natural gas con-
plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may encour- sumption over the projection period. Natural gas use in
age its use to displace other fossil fuels. the non-OECD countries increases from 50 percent of the
world total in 2005 to 58 percent in 2030.
Natural gas remains a key energy source for industrial
sector uses and electricity generation throughout the The OECD countries accounted for 38 percent of the
projection. The industrial sector, which is the world’s world’s total natural gas production and 50 percent
largest consumer of natural gas, accounts for 43 percent of natural gas consumption in 2005; in 2030, they
of projected natural gas use in 2030. In the electric power account for 27 percent of production and 42 percent of
sector, natural gas is an attractive choice for new gener- consumption. As a result, the OECD countries are pro-
ating plants because of its relative fuel efficiency and jected to rely increasingly on imports to meet natural
low carbon dioxide intensity. Electricity generation gas demand, with a growing percentage of natural
accounts for 35 percent of the world’s total natural gas gas imports coming in the form of liquefied natural gas
consumption in 2030. (LNG). In 2030, more than one-third of the natural gas
consumed in OECD countries is projected to come from
In 2005, OECD member countries and non-OECD coun- non-OECD sources, up from one-quarter in 2005.
tries each consumed 52 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Preliminary data for 2006 indicate that natural gas con- World Natural Gas Demand
sumption in non-OECD countries has surpassed that in
OECD Countries
Figure 35. World Natural Gas Consumption, Natural gas consumption in OECD North America is
1980-2030 projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.6 per-
Trillion Cubic Feet cent from 2005 to 2030 (Figure 36). For the United States
200 the average annual increase is 0.1 percent, significantly
History Projections
lower than for Canada and Mexico, largely because
higher natural gas prices in the U.S. market are expected
150 to dampen the use of natural gas for electricity genera-
Total tion. As North America’s largest user of natural gas, the
United States accounted for 81 percent of the 27.4 trillion
100 cubic feet consumed in North America in 2005. In 2030
Non-OECD the U.S. share falls to 72 percent, reflecting relatively
slow growth in U.S. demand and robust growth in Can-
50 OECD ada and Mexico.
In 2005, natural-gas-fired plants accounted for 19 per-

0 cent of net electricity generation in the United States and
1980 1990 2005 2020 2030 coal-fired plants 50 percent. The natural gas share is pro-
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), jected to rise to 21 percent in 2010, after which higher
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web natural gas prices discourage the construction of new
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy natural-gas-fired plants. U.S. natural gas consumption
Projections Plus (2008). for electricity generation increases in the near term, from

5.9 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 6.6 trillion cubic feet in sectors also expands strongly (by 3.6 percent per year),
2015, then declines steadily to 5.0 trillion cubic feet in although the absolute quantities are small.
2030. As more coal-fired plants are built after 2010, the
natural gas share of generation falls to 14 percent and the Because the expected growth in Mexico’s natural gas
coal share rises to 54 percent in 2030. Nuclear and consumption over the period (an increase of 2.3 trillion
renewables also gain market share at the expense of nat- cubic feet in 2030 compared with 2005) far exceeds its
ural gas. production growth, its dependence on pipeline imports
from the United States and imports of LNG from over-
Canada’s total natural gas consumption is projected to seas increases. Imports from the United States are offset
increase steadily, at a rate of 1.5 percent per year, from somewhat by exports of regasified LNG to the United
3.4 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 5.0 trillion cubic feet in States, from a new facility in Baja California that is
2030. In contrast to the decline in natural gas consump- scheduled to begin operation in 2008; however, Mexico
tion for electricity generation in the United States, in remains a net importer of U.S. natural gas throughout
Canada it increases by one-third from 2005 to 2030, the projection.
growing at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Even
more rapid growth is projected for Canada’s industrial In OECD Europe, natural gas consumption is projected
natural gas consumption, averaging 2.0 percent per to grow by an average of 1.4 percent per year—from 19.3
year, and including vast quantities of natural gas con- trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 22.8 trillion cubic feet in 2015
sumed in the mining of the country’s oil sands deposits. and 27.2 trillion cubic feet in 2030 (Figure 37)—mostly as
a result of increasing use for power generation. Many of
By volume, the total increase in Canada’s industrial use the OECD Europe nations have made commitments to
of natural gas from 2005 to 2030 equals 1.2 trillion cubic reduce carbon dioxide emissions, bolstering the incen-
feet, compared with an increase of 0.2 trillion cubic feet tive for governments to encourage the use of natural gas
for electricity generation. The growth in domestic con- in place of other fossil fuels. With renewable energy
sumption, coupled with a projected decline in Canada’s sources projected to remain more expensive than natu-
natural gas production, leaves less Canadian natural gas ral gas in OECD Europe, natural gas is expected to be the
available for export. Canada is projected to consume 93 fuel of choice for new generating capacity. Natural-gas-
percent of its own production in 2030, compared with 52 fired generation in the region increases by 3.9 percent
percent in 2005. per year in the IEO2008 reference case, from 0.7 trillion
kilowatthours in 2005 to 1.2 trillion kilowatthours in
In Mexico, strong growth in natural gas consumption is 2015 and then to 1.9 trillion kilowatthours in 2030.
expected in all sectors, with total consumption more
than doubling from 2005 to 2030. Industrial natural gas Natural gas consumption in Japan and South Korea is
consumption nearly doubles, and consumption for elec- projected to grow on average by 0.7 percent and 2.2 per-
tricity generation nearly triples over the projection cent per year, respectively, over the projection period,
period. Consumption in the residential and commercial with each country adding less than 1 trillion cubic feet of
Figure 36. Natural Gas Consumption in Figure 37. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD
North America by Country, 2005-2030 Europe, 2005-2030
Trillion Cubic Feet Trillion Cubic Feet
50 30
Mexico
Canada 25
40
United States
20
30
15
20
10
10
5
0 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gas consumption between 2005 and 2030 (Figure 38). States in total natural gas consumption, with demand
Recent growth in natural gas consumption in both coun- totaling 16.2 trillion cubic feet in 2005 and representing
tries has been strong, with outages at nuclear power 55 percent of Russia’s total energy consumption (Figure
plants in Japan compounding the increase. LNG imports 39). The other countries of non-OECD Europe and Eur-
into Japan for 2007 reportedly totaled 3.1 trillion cubic asia met 46 percent of their combined total energy needs
feet of natural gas (66.8 million tons of LNG), up by 7.6 with natural gas in 2005, consuming 9.1 trillion cubic
percent from 2006. The current nuclear issues are feet. With ample natural gas resources, non-OECD
expected to be resolved before 2010, however [1], and Europe and Eurasia is expected to continue its reliance
continued growth in nuclear output, along with a mod- on natural gas in the future.
est GDP growth rate, is expected to slow the growth of
Japan’s natural gas consumption over the longer term. Natural gas consumption in non-OECD Europe and
Eurasia grows at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent
In Australia and New Zealand, the industrial sector cur- over the projection period, almost maintaining its share
rently is the predominant consumer of natural gas and is in the overall energy mix (although the growth rates for
projected to account for more than 50 percent of all natu- consumption of liquids and nuclear energy are slightly
ral gas consumption in the region throughout the projec- higher). The increase in natural gas consumption
tion period. Natural gas is the fastest growing fuel in accounts for 45 percent of the total increase in energy
Australia and New Zealand in the IEO2008 reference consumption in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia from
case, accounting for just over 30 percent of the projected 2005 to 2030.
growth in the region’s total energy consumption from
2005 to 2030. It is also the fastest growing fuel in the Non-OECD Asia, which accounted for only 9.0 percent
region’s electric power sector. Australia’s ratification of of the world’s total consumption of natural gas in 2005,
the Kyoto Protocol treaty in March 2008 is likely to shows the most rapid growth in natural gas use in the
increase the country’s use of natural gas to displace reference case and accounts for 33 percent of the total
more carbon-dioxide-intensive coal. In addition, several increase in world natural gas consumption from 2005 to
policies have been enacted by state governments in Aus- 2030. Natural gas consumption in non-OECD Asia
tralia to stimulate the use of natural gas for electric nearly triples, from 9.3 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 27.4
power generation and moderate the anticipated growth trillion cubic feet in 2030, expanding by 4.4 percent per
of generation using coal, of which Australia has large year on average over the projection period (Figure 40).
reserves.
In both China and India, natural gas is currently a minor
Non-OECD Countries fuel in the overall energy mix, representing only 3 per-
In total, the countries of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia cent and 8 percent, respectively, of total primary energy
rely on natural gas for 51 percent of their energy needs— consumption in 2005. In the IEO2008 reference case, both
a larger share than for any other country grouping in the countries’ natural gas consumption rises rapidly, grow-
IEO2008 projections. Russia is second only to the United ing by 5.5 percent per year in China and 4.6 percent per
Figure 38. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD Asia Figure 39. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD
by Country, 2005-2030 Europe and Eurasia, 2005-2030
8 25
Russia Other
Total 20
6
15
4 Japan
10
2 Australia/New Zealand
5
South Korea
0 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

year in India on average from 2005 to 2030, as LNG production from 2005 to 2030. Non-OECD natural gas
imports and new domestic production help the two production grows by an average 2.5 percent per year in
countries meet continued demand growth. the reference case, from 63 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to
116 trillion cubic feet in 2030 (Table 5). Over the same
Natural gas consumption grows at average annual rates period, production in the OECD countries grows by
of 1.9 percent in the Middle East and 3.5 percent in only 0.3 percent per year, from 39 trillion cubic feet to 42
Africa from 2005 to 2030 (Figure 41). Algeria, Nigeria, trillion cubic feet.
Egypt, and Libya, the major African producers, are also
the major consumers, as there is very little infrastructure A significant portion of non-OECD natural gas produc-
on the continent for intraregional trade of natural gas. tion (excluding Russia and the other nations of Eurasia)
The two notable exceptions are the Mozambique-South is expected to be for export projects. The Middle East
Africa pipeline, with a capacity of 0.1 trillion cubic feet and Africa are at the forefront of the trend to develop
per year, and the West African Gas Pipeline project of export projects—particularly, LNG exports. For the two
similar capacity. South Africa has been importing natu- regions combined, natural gas production increases by
ral gas from its neighbor to feed the industrial complex 21.0 trillion cubic feet from 2005 to 2030, while their com-
at Sasolburg since completion of the pipeline from bined demand for natural gas increases by only 9.9 tril-
Mozambique in 2004. The West Africa pipeline, still lion cubic feet. LNG projects are expected to account for
under construction, is expected to bring natural gas a significant portion of natural gas exports from the Mid-
from Nigeria to consumers in Benin, Ghana, and Ivory dle East and Africa. In Qatar, for instance, export facili-
Coast. ties with a total capacity of approximately 3.6 trillion
cubic feet of natural gas (77 million metric tons of LNG)
In Central and South America, natural gas is the sec- are expected to be in operation by 2015, as compared
ond-fastest-growing energy source after nuclear power with the country’s 2005 LNG exports of 1 trillion cubic
(although nuclear generation is growing from a very feet. The increase in exports from Qatar alone would
small base and remains only a minor part of the region’s account for 14 percent of the total projected increase in
total energy consumption). Natural gas demand in- production from 2005 to 2015 for the non-OECD coun-
creases on average by 2.8 percent per year, from 4.4 tril- tries, excluding non-OECD Europe and Eurasia.
lion cubic feet in 2005 to 8.7 trillion cubic feet in 2030. For
Brazil, the region’s largest economy, natural gas con- Significant increases in natural gas production are also
sumption nearly triples—from 0.7 trillion cubic feet in projected for the countries of non-OECD Asia, but those
2005 to 1.8 trillion cubic feet in 2030. supply increases are expected to be used largely for con-
sumption in non-OECD Asia. China and India are pro-
World Natural Gas Supply jected to almost double their production volumes from
2005 to 2015, bringing production from India’s Krishna
The non-OECD nations are projected to account for 90
percent of the world’s total increase in natural gas
Figure 41. Natural Gas Consumption in Central
Figure 40. Natural Gas Consumption in and South America, Africa, and the
Non-OECD Asia, 2005-2030 Middle East, 2005-2030
30 40
Other
25 India
China 30
20 Total
15 20
Middle East
10
10 Central and South America
5
Africa
0 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Godavari Basin and China’s Sichuan province, as well as March 2008, Russia’s Gazprom reduced supplies of nat-
from smaller projects, to market. Some new export pro- ural gas to Ukraine in a dispute over payment for deliv-
jects are expected to be brought on line in non-OECD eries [2]. The reduction lasted for only 3 days, however,
Asia by 2015—most notably, the Tangguh LNG project and did not affect supplies to downstream customers in
in Indonesia—but production increases are aimed pri- OECD Europe. Production increases are projected to
marily at meeting rapid demand growth in the region. In outpace growth in natural gas demand in non-OECD
2005, net exports accounted for 17 percent of total pro- Europe and Eurasia, and the IEO2008 reference case
duction in non-OECD Asia, down from 30 percent in anticipates that Eurasian producers will remain impor-
1995. As rapid increases in production continue to be tant suppliers for their neighbors, especially in OECD
outpaced by consumption growth, non-OECD Asia is Europe.
projected to become a net importer of natural gas after
2015. The expansion of natural gas trade between Eurasia and
its western neighbors has not evolved without some dif-
In non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, natural gas produc- ficulties. Exports of natural gas from Azerbaijan began
tion is projected to grow from 29.3 trillion cubic feet in to flow through the new South Caucasus pipeline to
2005 to 36.1 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and 43.0 trillion Georgia in March 2007 and to Turkey in July 2007 [3].
cubic feet in 2030, although pricing and payment dis- Turkey then began re-exporting Azeri gas to Greece
putes currently are continuing to affect supplies. In after a new pipeline connecting Turkey and Greece
Table 5. World Natural Gas Production by Region and Country, 2005-2030

(Trillion Cubic Feet)
Projections Average Annual
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD North America. . . . . . . . . 26.5 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.6 0.2
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 19.4 19.6 19.8 19.7 19.5 0.2
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.3 5.4 -0.8
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.9 11.3 11.2 10.7 10.5 10.3 -0.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.0 4.3 3.7
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 1.6 2.0 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.1 3.9
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.2 40.8 41.2 41.5 41.8 42.2 0.3
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 29.3 33.1 36.1 38.4 40.4 43.0 1.6
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.6 24.9 26.9 28.7 30.6 33.0 1.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 8.2 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.0 1.7
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 13.7 17.2 20.6 23.5 25.6 3.3
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.3 3.6
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.9 4.1
Other non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . 8.4 9.7 12.0 14.5 16.6 18.4 3.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 14.6 16.9 19.3 20.7 22.5 2.8
Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 7.9 10.7 13.5 14.8 15.8 3.9
Central and South America. . . . 4.9 6.2 7.3 7.9 8.8 9.5 2.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 5.3
Other Central /South America . . 4.5 5.7 6.5 7.0 7.7 8.3 2.4
Total Non-OECD. . . . . . . . . . . 62.7 75.5 88.3 99.7 108.1 116.4 2.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.9 116.2 129.5 141.2 149.9 158.6 1.8

a
Includes supplemental production or forecast discrepancy. For details, see Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual
Energy Outlook 2008, p. 139, Table A13, “Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Prices.”
Sources: History: EIA, International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections:
United States: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), web site www.eia.doe.gov/
oiaf/aeo. Others: EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008).

opened in November 2007. In January 2008, Turkmeni- production and 8 percent of consumption in 2005 and
stan cut natural gas exports to Iran. Turkmenistan cited 2006. Production from CBM represents a higher percent-
technical issues on the pipeline, later saying that Iran’s age of total natural gas consumption than total produc-
failure to keep current on payments was hindering pipe- tion, because no CBM is being exported currently. That
line repairs [4]. The real reason for the halt in supplies, may change, however, as four LNG projects have been
however, was widely believed to be a pricing dispute. proposed with CBM as the feed gas [7].
Turkmenistan had proposed doubling the price Iran
paid for imports, from $1.91 per million Btu ($70 per In OECD North America, the United States has histori-
thousand cubic meters) to $3.83 per million Btu, and Iran cally been both the largest producer and the largest con-
reacted by cutting exports to Turkey to make up for the sumer of natural gas, and Canada has been the primary
lost imports from Turkmenistan. In turn, Turkey then source of U.S. natural gas imports. In 2005, Canada pro-
cut re-exports of Azeri gas to Greece to make up for the vided 86 percent of gross U.S. imports of natural gas.
lost imports from Iran. Subsequently, Russia’s Gazprom Although Canada’s unconventional production is
increased its exports of natural gas to Turkey, diffusing expected to increase over the projection period and LNG
the situation [5]. imports into Canada are projected to begin by the end of
the decade, the combined increases in supply are not
Brazil has the fastest-growing natural gas production in sufficient to offset a decline in conventional production
the IEO2008 reference case, with average annual in Canada’s largest producing basin, the Western Cana-
increases of 5.2 percent from 2005 to 2030; however, it dian Sedimentary Basin. Increasing costs are expected to
starts from a very low level of 0.3 trillion cubic feet in prevent the development of Canada’s McKenzie Delta
2005. As a whole, Central and South America’s produc- natural gas resource in the reference case, and Canada’s
tion increases by 2.7 percent per year, from 4.9 trillion production is projected to decline steadily, at an average
cubic feet in 2005 to 9.5 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Despite annual rate of 0.8 percent. U.S. gross imports of LNG are
adequate reserves that support healthy prospects for projected to exceed gross pipeline imports from Canada
long-term production growth in South America, the after 2017, and Canada’s share of U.S. gross imports is
region has begun importing LNG to supplement current projected to decline to 32 percent in 2030.
domestic supplies, which have failed to keep up with
demand (especially, peak seasonal demand). Argentina In the United States, rising natural gas prices are
became the first country in South America to import expected to provide sufficient incentive for an Alaska
LNG, receiving its first cargo in May 2008. Brazil and natural gas pipeline, which has long been in the plan-
Chile are expected to follow: the arrival of Brazil’s first ning stages, to come on line. The pipeline is expected to
LNG cargo is planned for late 2008, and Chile’s first begin transporting natural gas from Alaska to the lower
LNG import facility is expected to begin operating in 48 States in 2020, making a significant contribution to
2009. U.S. domestic supply. Alaska’s natural gas production is
expected to account for 100 percent of the projected
In the OECD, Australia/New Zealand is projected to growth in domestic U.S. conventional natural gas
have the strongest growth in natural gas production. production.
Much of the growth in Australia’s production is
expected to support planned or proposed LNG export A large portion of North America’s remaining techni-
projects, however, and increasing costs for liquefaction cally recoverable natural gas resource base consists of
projects have delayed project commitments in Australia unconventional sources, which include tight sands,
and around the world. New projects in Western Austra- shale, and coalbed methane. With most of the large
lia face further hurdles. The first is a government policy onshore conventional fields in the United States already
requiring new export projects to reserve 15 percent of having been discovered, the United States, like Canada,
production for domestic use. The second is the intention must look to these costlier sources of supply to make up
of the state and federal governments to identify a single for declines in conventional production. Unconven-
hub for liquefaction facilities serving the Browse Basin, tional production is expected to be a significant source of
in order to minimize environmental impacts from the U.S. incremental supply, increasing from 7.9 trillion
separate facilities being proposed by various companies. cubic feet (44 percent of total domestic production) in
2005 to 9.5 trillion cubic feet (49 percent) in 2030. With
In contrast, development of coalbed methane (CBM) the increases in unconventional production and produc-
reserves in Queensland and New South Wales is pro- tion from Alaska more than offsetting the decline in con-
gressing rapidly, with production from fiscal year ventional production, U.S. production grows by an
2000-20019 to 2005-2006 growing by 30 percent per year average of 0.2 percent per year.
on average [6] and accounting for roughly 5 percent of
9 The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) reports production on a fiscal year basis, which extends from
July 1 through June 30 of the following year.

The largest source of incremental natural gas supply for natural gas production is expected to increase signifi-
the United States is expected to be LNG imports, which cantly, from 1.5 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 2.7 trillion
increase from 0.6 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 2.8 trillion cubic feet in 2030.
cubic feet in 2030. As of January 2008, five U.S. LNG
import facilities were in operation, with a total peak Reserves and Resources
capacity of slightly more than 5.8 billion cubic feet per
day. Four additional facilities are under construction in Historically, world natural gas reserves have generally
the Gulf of Mexico and two in the offshore waters of trended upward (Figure 43). As of January 1, 2008,
New England. When completed, the new terminals will proved world natural gas reserves, as reported by Oil &
more than double U.S. LNG import capacity. Gas Journal,10 were estimated at 6,186 trillion cubic feet—
virtually unchanged from the estimate for 2007 of 6,168
U.S. gross imports of LNG are expected to grow rapidly trillion cubic feet [8]. Reserves have remained relatively
through 2015, increasing from 631 billion cubic feet in flat since 2004, despite growing demand for natural gas,
2005 to 2.1 trillion cubic feet in 2015, as new domestic implying that, thus far, producers have been able to
regasification capacity comes on line and new liquefac- continue replenishing reserves successfully with new
tion projects are completed worldwide. The growth in resources over time.
LNG imports slows after 2015, however, as natural gas
prices in general rise and demand declines. In the refer- The largest additions to natural gas reserve estimates in
ence case projection, LNG imports reach 2.8 trillion 2008 were reported for Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.
cubic feet in 2030 (Figure 42). The emerging LNG mar- Venezuela added an estimated 14 trillion cubic feet (a
kets in Canada and Mexico also show their strongest 9-percent increase over 2007 proved reserves) and Saudi
growth in the early years of the forecast. Arabia 13 trillion cubic feet (5 percent). There were
smaller, but still substantial, reported increases in
There are significant untapped reserves of natural gas in reserves in Malaysia and Angola—both of which added
Mexico; however, the state-owned oil company, around 8 trillion cubic feet. The reserve addition in
PEMEX, does not have the resources needed to develop Malaysia represents an 11-percent increase in its proved
them fully, and the constitutional provision that prohib- reserves. The addition in Angola represents an increase
its foreign ownership of Mexico’s oil and natural gas of more than 300 percent. The United States also had a
resources makes it difficult to attract foreign direct fairly substantial 6-percent increase in reserves, almost 7
investment in the country’s energy sector. Still, Mexico’s trillion cubic feet over the 2007 estimate.
Figure 43. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country

Figure 42. U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas Grouping, 1980-2007
by Source, 1990-2030 Trillion Cubic Feet
7,000
Trillion Cubic Feet
4
History Projections 6,000
Total
3 5,000
Overseas LNG 4,000

2
3,000 Other Non-OECD
1 Canada
2,000
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
0 1,000
Mexico OECD
0
-1 1980 1987 1994 2001 2008
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Sources: 1980-1993: “Worldwide Oil and Gas at a Glance,”
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy International Petroleum Encyclopedia (Tulsa, OK: PennWell
Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June Publishing, various issues). 1994-2008: Oil & Gas Journal
2008), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo. (various issues).
10 Proved reserves, as reported by the Oil & Gas Journal, are estimated quantities that can be recovered under present technology and
prices. Natural gas reserves reported by the Oil & Gas Journal are compiled from voluntary survey responses and do not always reflect the
most recent changes. U.S. proved reserves of natural gas are reported by the Energy Information Administration and are defined as the esti-
mated quantities of natural gas reserves as of December 31, 2007, which analysis of geological and engineering data demonstrate with rea-
sonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. Significant
natural gas discoveries made in 2007 are not likely to be reflected in the reported reserves.

The largest reported declines in natural gas reserves expected to be added through 2025, reserve growth
were reported for Iran (a decrease of 26 trillion cubic accounts for 2,347 trillion cubic feet.
feet) and Qatar (5 trillion cubic feet); however, given the
vast reserves in each of those countries, the declines Table 6. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country
represent relatively modest decreases of 3 percent and as of January 1, 2008
1 percent, respectively. A more significant drop in Reserves Percent of
reserves was reported for Papua New Guinea—just over (Trillion World
4 trillion cubic feet, or a 34-percent decrease in the coun- Country Cubic Feet) Total
try’s total natural gas reserves. Other decreases in World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,186 100.0
proved natural gas reserves were reported for Indonesia Top 20 Countries . . . . . . . . 5,606 90.6
(4 trillion cubic feet), Norway, Thailand, Algeria, and Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,680 27.2
Libya (about 3 trillion cubic feet each). Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 948 15.3
Almost three-quarters of the world’s natural gas re- Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 905 14.6
serves are located in the Middle East and Eurasia (Figure Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . 253 4.1
44). Russia, Iran, and Qatar together accounted for about United Arab Emirates . . . . 214 3.5
57 percent of the world’s natural gas reserves as of United States. . . . . . . . . . . 211 3.4
January 1, 2008 (Table 6). Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 3.0
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 2.7
Despite high rates of increase in natural gas consump- Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 2.6
tion, particularly over the past decade, most regional Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 1.8
reserves-to-production ratios are substantial. World- Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . 100 1.6
wide, the reserves-to-production ratio is estimated at 63 Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 1.6
years [9]. By region, the highest ratios are about 48 years Indonesia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 1.5
for Central and South America, 78 years for Russia, 79 Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 1.3
years for Africa, and more than 100 years for the Middle China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 1.3
East. Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 1.3
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically assesses Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 1.1
the long-term production potential of worldwide petro- Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 0.9
leum resources (oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids). Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 0.9
According to the most recent USGS estimates, released Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 0.9
in the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 and adjusted Rest of World . . . . . . . . . . . 580 9.4
to reflect current proved reserves, a significant volume Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil &
of natural gas remains to be discovered. Worldwide Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007), pp. 24-25.
undiscovered natural gas is estimated at 4,133 trillion
cubic feet (Figure 45). Of the new natural gas resources Figure 45. World Natural Gas Resources
by Geographic Region, 2008-2025
Trillion Cubic Feet
Figure 44. World Natural Gas Reserves 10,000
Europe
by Geographic Region as of
January 1, 2008 Central/South America
8,000
North America
Middle East 2,549 6,186
Asia
6,000
Eurasia 2,020 Africa
Eurasia 4,133
Africa 490 4,000
Middle East
2,347
Asia 415
2,000
North America 283
0
Central and South America 262 World Total: Proven Undiscovered Reserve
6,186 Trillion Cubic Feet Reserves Natural Gas Growth
Europe 167
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assess-
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 ment 2000, web site http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/
WorldEnergy/DDS-60; “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Pro-
Trillion Cubic Feet duction,” Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24,
Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & 2007), pp. 24-25; and Energy Information Administration esti-
Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007), pp. 24-25. mates.

References 6. Australian Government Department of Industry
1. “Japan Costly LNG Flight,” World Gas Intelligence, Tourism and Resources, Energy in Australia 2006
Vol. 19, No. 5 (January 30, 2008), pp. 1-2, web site (Canberra, Australia: ABARE, 2006), p. 36, web site
www.energyintel.com (subscription site). www.abareconomics.com/publications_html/
energy/energy_06/Energy_booklet06.pdf.
2. Global Insight, Inc., “Gazprom Cuts Gas Supplies to
Ukraine Further as Internal Ukrainian Split 7. “Reality Check Awaits Australian LNG Devel-
Remains” (March 5, 2008), web site www. opers,” Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, Vol. 47, No. 17
globalinsight.com (subscription site). (April 28, 2008), p. 3, web site www.energyintel.
com (subscription site).
3. Global Insight, Inc., “Azerbaijan: Country Reports:
Oil & Gas: Upstream” (November 1, 2007), web site 8. “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil
www.globalinsight.com (subscription site). & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007),
pp. 24-25, web site www.ogj.com (subscription
4. Global Insight, Inc., “Gas Exports from Turk- site).
menistan to Iran Restored As Iran Agrees to Price
Increase” (April 28, 2008), www.globalinsight.com 9. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 (London,
(subscription site). UK, June 2008), p. 22, web site www.bp.com.
5. “Turkey at Eye of Turkmen-Iran Storm,” World Gas
Intelligence, Vol. 19, No. 3 (January 16, 2008), pp. 2-3,
web site www.energyintel.com (subscription site).

Chapter 4
Coal
In the IEO2008 reference case, world coal consumption increases by 65 percent and
international coal trade increases by 53 percent from 2005 to 2030, and coal’s share
of world energy consumption increases from 27 percent in 2005 to 29 percent in 2030.
In the IEO2008 reference case, world coal consumption quadrillion Btu in 2030. Because the largest increase in
increases by 65 percent over the projection period, from consumption is projected for coal that is produced and
122.5 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 202.2 quadrillion Btu in consumed domestically in China, the share of total
2030 (Figure 46). The increase in coal consumption aver- world coal consumption accounted for by internation-
ages 2.6 percent per year from 2005 to 2015, then slows to ally traded coal declines slightly, from 15 percent in 2005
an average of 1.7 percent per year from 2015 to 2030. to 14 percent in 2030.
World GDP and primary energy consumption also grow
more rapidly in the first half than in the second half of World Coal Consumption
the projections, reflecting a gradual slowdown of eco-
OECD Countries
nomic activity, especially in non-OECD Asia. Region-
ally, increased use of coal in non-OECD countries Coal consumption in the OECD countries increases in
accounts for 91 percent of the total growth in world coal the reference case from 47.3 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to
consumption over the entire period. 49.9 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 55.0 quadrillion Btu in
2030 (Figure 48). The increase represents average
In 2005, coal accounted for 27 percent of world energy growth of 0.6 percent per year over the entire period and
consumption (Figure 47). Of the coal produced world- 0.7 percent per year from 2015 to 2030. Coal consump-
wide in 2005, 63 percent was shipped to electricity pro- tion in the OECD countries represented 39 percent of the
ducers, 34 percent to industrial consumers, and most of world total in 2005. In 2030 it is only 27 percent of the
the remaining 3 percent went to coal consumers in the total, despite increases in North America and OECD
residential and commercial sectors. Coal’s share of total Asia.
world energy consumption is projected to increase to 29
percent in 2030, and its share in the electric power sector North America
is projected to rise from 42 percent in 2005 to 46 percent Coal use in the United States totaled 22.8 quadrillion Btu
in 2030. in 2005, accounting for 92 percent of total coal use in
International coal trade increases by 53 percent in the North America and 48 percent of the OECD total. U.S.
reference case, from 18.4 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 28.1
Figure 47. Coal Share of World Energy
Figure 46. World Coal Consumption by Country Consumption by Sector, 2005, 2015,
Grouping, 1980-2030 and 2030
Quadrillion Btu Percent
250 100
History Projections 2005 2015 2030
200 80
Total
150 60
46
42 45
100 40
Non-OECD
24 24 24 27 28 29
50 20
OECD
4 4 3
0 0
1980 1995 2005 2015 2030 Electricity Industrial Other Sectors Total
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA,
Projections Plus (2008). World Energy Projections Plus (2008).

coal demand rises to 29.9 quadrillion Btu in 2030 in the essentially maintain their combined 8-percent share of
IEO2008 reference case. The United States has substan- North America’s total coal consumption through 2030.
tial coal reserves and relies heavily on coal for electricity In Mexico, 0.7 gigawatts of coal-fired generating capac-
generation, a position that continues in the projections. ity currently is under construction at Lazaro Cardenas
Coal’s share of total U.S. electricity generation (includ- on the Pacific coast. In addition, Mexico’s Energy Minis-
ing electricity produced at combined heat and power try has indicated the potential for additional coal-fired
plants in the industrial and commercial sectors) declines generating projects in the next decade, contingent on the
from 50 percent in 2005 to 49 percent in 2015, then rises confirmation of newly discovered coal reserves in the
to 54 percent in 2030. Sabinas region and subject to future fuel prices.
Much of the projected growth in U.S. coal consumption OECD Europe

occurs after 2015, when a substantial amount of new Total coal consumption in the countries of OECD
coal-fired generating capacity is projected to come on Europe declines slightly in the reference case, from 13.2
line. Between 2005 and 2015, natural gas continues to be quadrillion Btu in 2005 (28 percent of the OECD total) to
the top choice for new generating capacity, with renew- 12.6 quadrillion Btu in 2030. In 2005, the major coal-
ables and coal accounting for most of the remaining consuming countries of OECD Europe included Ger-
additions during the period. After 2015, the combina- many, Poland, the United Kingdom, Spain, Turkey, and
tion of increased need for baseload generating capacity, the Czech Republic. Low-Btu coal is an important
rising natural gas prices, continuing growth in electric- domestic source of energy for the nations of OECD
ity demand, and the absence of national-level restric- Europe, which also rely heavily on imports of hard
tions on greenhouse gas emissions gradually tips coal.11 In 2005, lignite accounted for 47 percent of their
capacity expansion decisions toward new coal-fired total combined coal consumption on a tonnage basis and
power plants. From 2015 to 2030, 86 gigawatts of new 24 percent on a Btu basis [1]. Plans to replace or refurbish
coal-fired capacity is projected to be built, representing existing coal-fired capacity in a number of the countries
82 percent of all the new coal-fired generating plants of OECD Europe are an indication that coal will con-
built in the United States from 2005 through 2030. The tinue to play an important role in their overall energy
projections could change significantly, however, if mix [2].
changes were made in U.S. laws and policies, particu-
larly those regarding greenhouse gas emissions. Coal consumption remains fairly flat throughout 2030,
as governments enact policies to discourage the use of
In Canada and Mexico, small increases in coal consump- the fuel, largely in response to environmental concerns.
tion (0.3 and 0.1 quadrillion Btu, respectively) are Among the most important factors preventing OECD
expected over the period. As a result, the two countries Europe’s coal consumption from increasing in the long
term is relatively slow growth in overall energy con-
Figure 48. OECD Coal Consumption sumption, averaging 0.5 percent per year. Other factors
by Region, 1980, 2005, 2015, and 2030 include continued penetration of natural gas in both the
Quadrillion Btu
electricity and the industrial sectors, growing use of
75 renewable fuels, and continuing pressure on member
1980 2005 2015 2030 countries of the European Union to reduce subsidies
that support domestic production of hard coal.
50 OECD Asia
In addition to remaining prominent consumers of coal,
the nations of OECD Asia play an important role in
international coal trade. In 2005 they used 9.3 quadril-
25
lion Btu of coal, representing 20 percent of total OECD
coal consumption. OECD Asia’s coal demand is pro-
jected to increase by 0.6 quadrillion Btu over the projec-
0 tion period, to 10.0 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (18 percent of
North OECD OECD Total OECD the OECD total). In 2005, Australia was the world’s lead-
America Europe Asia ing coal exporter, supplying 6.1 quadrillion Btu of coal
Sources: 1980 and 2005: Energy Information Administration to the international market, while Japan and South
(EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), Korea were the world’s leading importers, receiving 4.5
web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, World and 1.9 quadrillion Btu of coal, respectively [3]. Japan’s
Energy Projections Plus (2008). coal consumption decreases in the long term; Australia,
11 Internationally, the term “hard coal” is used to describe anthracite and bituminous coal. In data published by the International Energy
Agency, coal of subbituminous rank is classified as hard coal for some countries and as brown coal (with lignite) for others.

New Zealand, and South Korea account for nearly all the percent from 2005 to 2015, then slows to 2.1 percent per
projected growth in OECD Asia’s demand for coal. year from 2015 to 2030 as the region’s overall rate of eco-
nomic growth begins to moderate in the later years of
Coal consumption in Australia/New Zealand increases the projection period.
by an average of 0.6 percent per year, from 2.6 quadril-
lion Btu in 2005 to 3.0 quadrillion Btu in 2030. With sub- Non-OECD Asia
stantial coal reserves (primarily in Australia), the region China and India together account for 79 percent of the
continues to rely heavily on coal for electricity genera- projected increase in world coal consumption from 2005
tion; however, coal’s share of total generation declines to 2030. Strong economic growth is projected for both
gradually as more natural gas is consumed in the electric countries (averaging 6.4 percent per year in China and
power sector. Coal-fired power plants supplied 73 per- 5.8 percent per year in India from 2005 to 2030), and
cent of the region’s total electricity generation in 2005, as much of the increase in their demand for energy, partic-
compared with a projected 68-percent share in 2030 in ularly in the electric power and industrial sectors, is
the reference case. expected to be met by coal.
South Korea’s total coal consumption increases by 0.7 Coal use in China’s electricity sector is projected to
quadrillion Btu from 2005 to 2030, primarily to fuel exist- increase from 22.2 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 60.6 qua-
ing and planned electric power plants. South Korea’s drillion Btu in 2030, at an average rate of 4.1 percent per
generating companies have announced plans to con- year (Figure 50). In comparison, coal consumption in the
struct more than 6 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity U.S. electric power sector is projected to grow by 1.1 per-
at existing sites over the next few years, including three cent annually, from 20.7 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 27.5
500-megawatt units that began operation at Korea quadrillion Btu in 2030. At the end of 2005, China had an
East-West Power Company’s Dangjin plant in 2006 and estimated 299 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity in opera-
2007 [4]. tion. To meet the demand for electricity that is expected
to accompany its rapid economic growth, an additional
Non-OECD Countries
735 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity (net of retirements)
Led by strong economic growth and rising demand for is projected to be brought on line in China by 2030,
energy in China and India, non-OECD coal consump- requiring large financial investments in new coal-fired
tion is projected to rise to 147.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030, power plants and associated transmission and distribu-
nearly double the quantity consumed in 2005 (Figure tion systems.
49). The increase of 72.1 quadrillion Btu, which repre-
sents 90 percent of the projected increase in total world More than one-half (53 percent) of China’s coal use in
coal consumption, underscores the growing importance 2005 was in the non-electricity sectors, primarily in the
of coal in meeting overall energy demand in the non- industrial sector. China was the world’s leading pro-
OECD nations. Total coal consumption in the non- ducer of both steel and pig iron in 2005 [5]. Over the pro-
OECD countries grows at an average annual rate of 3.7 jection period, coal demand in China’s non-electricity
Figure 49. Non-OECD Coal Consumption Figure 50. Coal Consumption in China by Sector,
by Region, 1980, 2005, 2015, and 2030 2005, 2015, and 2030
150 120
1980 2005 2015 2030 2005 2015 2030 103
100
100
80 72
61
60
50 47
40 40
40
29
22 22
0 20
Non-OECD Non-OECD Other Total 3 3 3
Europe Asia Non-OECD Non-OECD 0
and Eurasia Electricity Industrial Other Sectors Total
Sources: 1980 and 2005: Energy Information Administration Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
(EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, World site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, World Energy
Energy Projections Plus (2008). Projections Plus (2008).

sectors is expected to increase by 18.1 quadrillion Btu, to India is projected to grow by 2.5 percent per year, to 11.1
73 percent above the 2005 level. Despite such substantial quadrillion Btu in 2030, as an additional 95 gigawatts of
growth, however, the non-electricity share of total coal coal-fired capacity (net of retirements) is brought on
demand declines to 41 percent in 2030. Because China line. As a result, India’s coal-fired generating capacity
has only limited reserves of oil and natural gas, coal more than doubles in the reference case, from 79
remains the primary source of energy in its industrial gigawatts in 2005 to 173 gigawatts in 2030.
sector, even as electricity’s share of total industrial
energy use rises from 17 percent in 2005 to 27 percent in Currently, India’s government has tentative plans to
2030. add more than 50 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating
capacity during the period covered by its eleventh
With a substantial portion of the increase in China’s power plan (a 5-year period ending in March 2012) [8].
demand for both liquids and natural gas projected to be During India’s most recent 5-year power plan period,
met by imports, the Chinese government is actively pur- which ended in March 2007, only about 12 of the 20
suing the development of a coal-to-liquids industry. gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity that had
Production of coal-based synthetic liquids is scheduled been planned was actually completed. In addition to the
to commence in late 2008 at the country’s first commer- coal projects listed in the preliminary documents for the
cial-scale coal-to-liquids plant. Located in the Inner eleventh power plan, including one “ultra mega”
Mongolia Autonomous Region, the direct coal liquefac- coal-fired plant with a capacity of 4 gigawatts, the Indian
tion facility is being built by the state-owned Shenhua government is pursuing the development of eight more
Group and will have an initial capacity of approximately “ultra mega” projects with a total combined coal-fired
20,000 barrels per day [6]. Although initial plans foresaw generating capability of 32 gigawatts [9].
an increase in liquids production at the site to 100,000 In the other nations of non-OECD Asia, coal consump-
barrels per day by 2010, the schedule for expansion is tion is projected to grow by an average of 2.3 percent per
now indefinite, depending on the successful startup and year, from 5.3 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 9.3 quadrillion
commercial operation of the first phase. Btu in 2030, with increases in both the electric power and
industrial sectors. In the electric power sector, signifi-
A number of other coal-to-liquids projects, representing
cant growth in coal consumption is expected in Taiwan,
total productive capacity in excess of 0.2 million barrels
Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, where considerable
per day, are currently at various stages of development,
amounts of new coal-fired generating capacity are either
ranging from feasibility studies to early construction
planned or under construction.
phases [7]. Shenhua is involved in a number of these
projects as well, and two other Chinese companies—the Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
Yankuang and Lu’an Groups—also are moving forward Coal consumption in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia is
with their own coal-to-liquids projects. Despite strong projected to increase at an average rate of 0.9 percent per
interest by the Chinese government and industry in year, from 8.8 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 11.2 quadrillion
developing a coal-to-liquids industry, substantial uncer- Btu in 2030. Russia alone has an estimated 173 billion
tainty and risks are associated with the move, including tons of recoverable reserves (19 percent of the world
potential strains on water resources, the general finan- total), and the other countries of non-OECD Europe and
cial risks associated with technological uncertainties, Eurasia have an additional 95 billion tons (10 percent of
and the substantial investment requirements. In the the world total).12
IEO2008 reference case, China’s coal-to-liquids produc-
tion is projected to reach 0.2 million barrels per day in Russia is the largest coal consumer among the nations of
2030, indicating an annual coal requirement of approxi- non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, at 4.8 quadrillion Btu in
mately 1 quadrillion Btu, or about 1 percent of China’s 2005, or 54 percent of the total for non-OECD Europe
total projected coal use in 2030. In comparison, China’s and Eurasia. In 2030, Russia’s coal consumption is pro-
coal-to-liquids production in 2030 is projected to be 0.1 jected to total 5.7 quadrillion Btu. Coal supplied 16 per-
million barrels per day in the IEO2008 low price case and cent of Russia’s total energy requirements in 2005, and
0.5 million barrels day in the IEO2008 high price case. coal-fired power plants provided 24 percent of its elec-
tricity. In the IEO2008 reference case, coal’s share of Rus-
Nearly 74 percent of the growth in India’s coal consump- sia’s total energy consumption drops slightly to 14
tion is expected to be in the electric power sector and percent in 2030, and its share of electricity generation
most of the remainder in the industrial sector. In 2005, declines to 22 percent. More than one-half of the pro-
India’s coal-fired power plants consumed 6.0 quadril- jected growth in electricity demand from 2005 to 2030 is
lion Btu of coal, representing 70 percent of the country’s met by natural-gas-fired power plants, with coal and
total coal demand. Coal use for electricity generation in nuclear plants accounting for most of the remainder. The
12 Throughout this chapter, tons refer to short tons (2,000 pounds).

natural gas share of Russia’s total electricity generation to service between 2006 and 2011. In addition, Eskom
increases from 40 percent in 2005 to 46 percent in 2030. is also proceeding with the construction of a new
4.5-gigawatt coal-fired power plant consisting of six
In March 2008, the Russian government approved a new units, which are scheduled to be fully operational by
long-range plan for the country’s electric power sector 2015. Recent power shortages and the general lack of
through 2020 [10]. In general, the plan lays out a detailed spare generating capacity in southern Africa have also
road map of capacity additions and retirements and new led to increased interest in new coal-fired power projects
transmission infrastructure. One of the key objectives of in Botswana, Mozambique, and Tanzania [13].
the plan on the generation side is to curb growth in natu-
ral-gas-fired generation in order to free up natural gas In the industrial sector, increasing use of coal in Africa is
for export. The plan anticipates some additional growth expected for several purposes, including the production
in natural gas consumption in the power sector through of steam and process heat for industrial applications,
2020, as does the IEO2008 reference case, but it differs production of coke for the steel industry, and produc-
from the IEO2008 projection in that it anticipates more tion of coal-based synthetic liquids. Currently, two com-
generation from coal-fired and nuclear power plants mercial-size coal-to-liquids plants in South Africa (Sasol
and more rapid growth in total electricity generation. II and Sasol III) supply about 25 percent of the country’s
total liquid fuel requirements [14]. The two plants
One of the key uncertainties in Russia’s new long-range together are capable of producing 150,000 barrels of syn-
power plan results from the current activities of the thetic liquids per day.
country’s former power monopoly, Unified Energy Sys-
tem (UES), which is completing the process of selling off Central and South America
the many regional generating companies it once con- Central and South America consumed 0.9 quadrillion
trolled. It remains to be seen how the government’s new Btu of coal in 2005. Brazil, with the world’s tenth-largest
plan for the power sector will be worked out with the steel industry in 2005, accounted for 51 percent of the
many private-sector companies that own or soon will region’s coal demand. Chile, Colombia, Puerto Rico,
own the various regional generating entities, as the spe- Peru, and Argentina accounted for most of the remain-
cific planned additions and retirements outlined in the der [15].
government plan may not turn out to be the most eco-
nomical choices from the perspective of the individual In the projections, coal consumption in Central and
generating companies. South America increases by 1.0 quadrillion Btu from
2005 to 2030, with 76 percent of the increase in Brazil,
In the other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia nations, coal primarily for coke manufacture and electricity genera-
consumption is projected to increase from 4.0 quadril- tion. Brazil’s steel companies currently plan to expand
lion Btu in 2005 to 5.5 quadrillion Btu by 2030, growing production capacity by a substantial amount over the
by 1.2 percent per year on average. Plans for both new next few years to meet increasing domestic and interna-
coal-fired capacity and the refurbishment of existing tional demand for steel [16].
capacity in a number of countries, including Albania,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Roma- Middle East
nia, Serbia, and Ukraine, are a significant indication that Countries of the Middle East consumed 0.4 quadrillion
coal will continue to be an important source of energy Btu of coal in 2005. Israel accounted for 87 percent of the
for the region [11]. total and Iran most of the remainder. The region’s coal
use increases only slightly in the reference case, to 0.5
Africa
quadrillion Btu in 2030.
Africa’s coal consumption is projected to increase by 1.4
quadrillion Btu from 2005 to 2030. South Africa cur- World Coal Production
rently accounts for 90 percent of the coal consumed on
the continent and is expected to continue to account for From 2005 to 2030, coal production in China, the United
much of the increase in Africa’s total coal consumption States, and India is projected to increase by 52.4 quadril-
over the projection period in both the electricity and lion Btu, 6.0 quadrillion Btu, and 4.3 quadrillion Btu,
industrial sectors. respectively, in the IEO2008 reference case (Table 7),
which assumes that most of the demand for coal in the
In South Africa, increasing demand for electricity in three countries will continue to be met by domestic pro-
recent years has led to a decision by Eskom, the coun- duction. Coal production in Australia is also projected to
try’s state-owned electricity supplier, to restart three rise substantially (by 5.0 quadrillion Btu) over the pro-
large coal-fired plants (Camden, Grootvlei, and Komati) jection period, primarily to supply an expanding market
that have been closed for more than a decade [12]. The for world coal trade. The projected increases in coal pro-
individual units at those plants, with a combined gener- duction for these four countries dominate the overall
ating capacity of 3.8 gigawatts, are scheduled to return trends for the OECD and non-OECD, accounting for 99

percent of the increase in net production for all the 2008, flooding in Australian coal mines and continued
OECD countries and 82 percent of the increase for the port congestion caused delays and even cancellations of
non-OECD countries. Rising international trade also is coal deliveries. Also in 2008, heavy snow in China and
expected to support production increases in Russia, the rail transportation problems it caused contributed to
other non-OECD Asia, Africa, and Central and South tight coal markets. As domestic coal stockpiles dwin-
America (excluding Brazil). dled, the Chinese government temporarily stopped all
coal exports.
World Coal Trade Despite the potential for disruptive events, bottlenecks
Because relatively few countries export coal, a disrup- and temporary supply problems in major coal exporting
tion in one segment of the international coal supply countries are expected to be overcome in the long run,
chain can reverberate throughout the global market and and the volumes of coal traded internationally are pro-
limit the availability of coal for trade. In 2007 and 2008, jected to increase through 2030. The upward trend in
several such disruptions took place. Power shortages at coal trade reflects the worldwide growth in coal con-
coal mines in South Africa and rail car shortages in Rus- sumption projected through 2030. International coal
sia restricted the availability of coal in 2007. In early trade made up 15 percent of total world consumption in
Table 7. World Coal Production by Region, 2005-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)
Average Annual
Percent Change,
Region 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 25.1 26.5 27.3 28.1 29.8 32.1 1.0%
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.4 27.0 29.2 0.9%
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.9%
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.3%
OECD Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.2 6.9 -0.5%
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.7 10.7 11.7 12.5 13.0 13.7 1.9%
Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 10.6 11.6 12.4 13.0 13.6 1.9%
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.6 45.5 46.9 48.1 50.1 52.7 1.0%
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . 10.2 10.7 12.2 12.6 12.8 13.5 1.1%
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.8 7.4 7.7 7.7 8.2 1.2%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 3.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 1.0%
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62.7 74.5 87.8 98.9 111.1 123.3 2.7%
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48.9 59.9 71.3 81.3 91.5 101.3 3.0%
India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 7.9 8.6 9.5 10.7 12.0 1.8%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 6.7 7.9 8.1 8.9 9.9 2.1%
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 6.7 7.4 7.8 8.1 8.2 1.3%
Central and South America . . . . . . 1.9 2.8 3.7 4.8 5.0 5.0 3.9%
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.3%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 3.5 4.6 4.8 4.8 3.9%
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80.7 94.7 111.1 124.0 137.0 150.0 2.5%
Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122.2 140.2 158.0 172.1 187.1 202.7 2.0%
Note: With the exception of North America, non-seaborne coal trade is not represented in the IEO2008 cases. As a result, the
projected levels of production assume that net non-seaborne coal trade will balance out across the world regions. Currently, a
significant amount of non-seaborne coal trade takes place in Eurasia, represented by exports of steam coal from Kazakhstan to
Russia and exports of coking coal from Russia to Ukraine.
Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site www.
eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008); and National Energy Modeling System, run IEO2008.
D061008B.

2005, and in the IEO2008 reference case, it is projected to Asia’s import demand for coking coal over the projec-
grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent, from tion period.
about 19.7 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 28.1 quadrillion Btu
in 2030 (Table 8). Because the largest increases in coal After the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russian
consumption through 2030 are projected for non-OECD coal supply was characterized by low mine productiv-
Asia—particularly China, which is expected to meet ity, relatively poor coal quality, and long distances
most of the increase in its coal demand with domestic between mines and markets. The productivity of its coal
supply rather than imports—the share of coal trade as a mines has improved since then, however, lowering min-
percentage of global coal consumption declines slightly, ing costs and compensating in part for the expense of
to 14 percent in 2030. Australia and Indonesia are geo- transporting coal to ports. Rail and port infrastructure
graphically well situated to continue as the leading sup- investments are critical for the continued expansion of
pliers of internationally traded coal, especially to Asia, Russia’s coal exports, and in addition, growth in the
over the period. South America is projected to expand its country’s domestic coal consumption could limit the
role as an international supplier of coal, primarily as a availability of coal for export. Nevertheless, Russia is
result of increasing coal production in Colombia. expected to play a growing role in seaborne world coal
trade. Europe (particularly, the United Kingdom) has
Although both steam and metallurgical coal are traded increasingly sought Russia’s low-sulfur coal as its own
internationally, most of the trade is in steam coal, which mines have closed. In 2030, Eurasia’s coal exports are
is projected to represent 72 percent of world coal trade in projected to total 2.5 quadrillion Btu—63 percent more
2030. In 2006, 56 percent of the world’s exported steam than in 2006—largely as a result of growth in Russian
coal was imported by Asian countries, and their share of exports.
the total in 2030 is projected to be 61 percent. The share
of metallurgical coal imports destined for Asian coun- South America is projected to be the second-largest
tries also increases, from 61 percent in 2006 to 65 percent exporter of coal worldwide in 2030, primarily as a result
in 2030. of increases in exports from Colombia. The expansion
will require investments in mine capacity, rail infra-
Coal Exporters structure, and port capacity, such as the current pro-
posal to build a tunnel that would expedite coal
The top four exporters of steam coal in 2006 were Indo- transportation to Pacific Ocean ports. In Colombia, an
nesia, Australia, South America (Colombia and Vene- expansion project is under development at the Bocas de
zuela), and southern Africa (South Africa, Mozambique, Ceniza port [19], and an additional increase of 0.7 qua-
and Botswana). Although Indonesia currently is the drillion Btu of capacity has been proposed for its other
world’s largest exporter of steam coal, Australia is Caribbean ports [20].
expected to be the leading exporter in most years of the
IEO2008 projections. China is only the sixth-largest In non-OECD Asia, China, Indonesia, and Vietnam are
exporter of steam coal in 2030. For coking coal, Austra- examples of countries that have the potential to export
lia, Canada, and the United States continue to be ranked more coal but are focused instead on meeting domestic
among the top three exporters over the projection demand. From 2003 to 2006, China successively
period. Among the countries expected to expand their decreased the amount of coal it exported each year. In
international coal trade in 2030 are Australia, Russia, the wake of domestic supply shortages in 2007, China
and Colombia. Indonesia and Vietnam, like China, are again diverted coal from the export market for domestic
projected to see increasing domestic demand for coal, consumption. Thus, the past few years have shown that
which is expected to constrain their coal exports. China has the ability to turn exports on and off depend-
ing on domestic needs, contributing to uncertainty and
Already the world’s leading exporter of coal, Australia volatility in international coal markets. Overall, China is
is projected to dominate future international coal trade. expected to hold a lower share of world coal trade as its
Australia continues to improve its inland transportation exports stay fairly flat and other suppliers provide more
and port infrastructure to expedite coal shipments to coal.
international markets. For example, expansions and
new terminals at the port of Newcastle could add more In the international market for steam coal, Indonesia’s
than 1.0 quadrillion Btu of additional coal export capac- coal exports are expected to peak sometime before 2010
ity in New South Wales [17]. Queensland’s Dalrymple as some coal is redirected for domestic consumption.
Bay port is expected to complete its Phase I expansion to Indonesia has low-cost reserves of low-sulfur coal; many
1.8 quadrillion Btu in early 2008, followed by an increase ports, some with the capability to take capesize ships;
to about 2.3 quadrillion Btu in subsequent expansions and proximity to the expanding markets of Asia. Indo-
[18]. Australia remains the primary exporter of metallur- nesia has also demonstrated its capacity for significant
gical coal to Asian markets, supplying 75 percent of growth, tripling its exports in the past decade. From

Table 8. World Coal Flows by Importing and Exporting Regions, Reference Case, 2006, 2015, and 2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Importers
Steam Coking Total
Exporters Europea Asia Americas Totalb Europea Asiac Americas Totalb Europea Asia Americas Totalb
2006
Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 0.10 2.57 0.18 2.85 0.82 2.31 0.21 3.33 0.91 4.88 0.39 6.18
United States. . . . . . . . 0.12 0.01 0.34 0.48 0.45 0.04 0.26 0.75 0.57 0.05 0.60 1.22
Southern Africad . . . . . 1.53 0.07 0.02 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 1.55 0.07 0.03 1.71
Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.08 0.29 0.02 1.39 0.07 0.10 0.00 0.17 1.15 0.39 0.02 1.56
Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.28
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.08 0.21 0.36 0.10 0.67 0.21 0.41 0.12 0.75
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.06 1.44 0.00 1.51 0.01 0.10 0.00 0.12 0.07 1.55 0.00 1.62
South Americae . . . . . . 0.88 0.00 0.84 1.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.88 0.00 0.84 1.72
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.52
Indonesiaf . . . . . . . . . . 0.62 2.90 0.13 3.66 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.53 0.62 3.43 0.13 4.19
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.65 7.85 1.55 14.12 1.60 3.45 0.57 5.63 6.25 11.30 2.12 19.74
2015
Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 0.03 4.77 0.00 4.80 0.76 3.01 0.36 4.13 0.79 7.78 0.36 8.93
United States. . . . . . . . 0.25 0.02 0.18 0.45 0.24 0.00 0.42 0.66 0.50 0.02 0.59 1.11
Southern Africad . . . . . 1.29 1.06 0.12 2.47 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 1.31 1.06 0.15 2.51
Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.52 0.54 0.00 2.06 0.08 0.23 0.00 0.31 1.59 0.77 0.00 2.36
Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.14 0.00 0.01 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.17 0.00 0.01 0.18
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.47 0.36 0.13 0.96 0.51 0.36 0.13 1.00
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 1.07 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.10 0.00 1.10
South Americae . . . . . . 1.95 0.00 1.12 3.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.95 0.00 1.12 3.07
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.27
Indonesiaf . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 3.03 0.09 3.12 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 3.54 0.09 3.63
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.21 10.76 1.53 17.50 1.60 4.13 0.94 6.66 6.81 14.88 2.46 24.16
2030
Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 0.09 5.39 0.04 5.51 0.89 3.79 0.45 5.13 0.97 9.18 0.48 10.64
United States. . . . . . . . 0.01 0.01 0.29 0.31 0.20 0.00 0.33 0.53 0.21 0.01 0.62 0.84
Southern Africad ..... 1.20 1.37 0.18 2.75 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.04 1.22 1.37 0.20 2.79
Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.45 0.66 0.00 2.11 0.16 0.27 0.00 0.43 1.61 0.93 0.00 2.54
Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.07 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.00 0.03 0.11
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.47 0.26 1.13 0.40 0.47 0.26 1.13
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 1.07 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.10 0.00 1.10
South Americae . . . . . . 2.18 0.10 2.12 4.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.18 0.10 2.12 4.39
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.27
Indonesiaf . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 3.53 0.22 3.75 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 4.03 0.22 4.25
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.00 12.38 2.88 20.26 1.67 5.07 1.07 7.80 6.66 17.46 3.94 28.06
aEurope/Mediterranean, including coal shipments to the Middle East and Africa.
bIn 2006, total world coal flows include a balancing item used to reconcile discrepancies between reported exports and imports. The 2006
balancing items by coal type were 0.069 quadrillion Btu (steam coal), 0.003 quadrillion Btu (coking coal), and 0.071 quadrillion Btu (total).
cIncludes 0.49 quadrillion Btu of coal for pulverized coal injection at blast furnaces shipped to Japanese steelmakers in 2006.
dSouthern Africa includes South Africa, Mozambique, and Botswana.
eCoal exports from South America are projected to originate from mines in Colombia and Venezuela.
fIncludes shipments from other countries not modeled for the projection period. The 2006 exports from other countries by coal type were
0.07 quadrillion Btu (steam coal), 0.03 quadrillion Btu (coking coal), and 0.10 quadrillion Btu (total).
Notes: Data exclude non-seaborne shipments of coal to Europe and Asia. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent
rounding.
Sources: 2006: SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., SSY’s Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 16, No. 1 (London, UK, June 2007); and Energy
Information Administration, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2006, DOE/EIA-0121(2006/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2007).
2015 and 2030: Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System, run IEO2008.D061008B.

2006 to 2030, Indonesia’s annual coal exports are pro- coal imports could put upward pressure on world coal
jected to average about 4 quadrillion Btu; however, con- prices. In 2030, China’s coal imports are projected to
tinued strength in Indonesia’s coal exports depends on total 3.4 quadrillion Btu and its exports 1.1 quadrillion
investment in resource exploration and the develop- Btu. Even with a substantial increase in imports, how-
ment of new mines over the period. Some areas of uncer- ever, most of the coal consumed in China will continue
tainty for Indonesian exports include the rate of growth to be supplied by its own coal mines.
in its domestic coal demand consumption, the adequacy
of its internal transportation infrastructure, and envi- In India, demand for coal imports in 2030 is projected to
ronmental concerns. As long as international coal be nearly triple its 2006 demand, as the country contin-
demand is strong and coal exports are profitable, Indo- ues to encounter problems with domestic coal produc-
nesia is expected to continue to supply coal to other tion and transportation. India is projected to increase
nations. imports of both coking coal and steam coal substantially.
Its large electricity plants planned for the coast are to be
Despite strong growth in coal exports between 2003 and fueled by imported thermal coal. India has domestic
2007, the Vietnamese government plans to restrict resources of coking coal, but their quality is poor in com-
exports in the future. State-owned Vinacomin, the larg- parison with imports from foreign sources. India plans
est coal producer in Vietnam, has announced plans to to expand its steel industry to between 165 and 198 mil-
reduce exports by 17 percent in 2008 and to begin lion tons by 2020 from about 50 million tons in 2005 [26],
importing coal from Indonesia [21]. Vietnam has been with increased imports of coking coal supporting the
slow to implement coal export reduction policies, how- expansion. Steel production is necessary for India to
ever, and was still exporting about 0.7 quadrillion Btu in expand and improve infrastructure essential for eco-
2006 and 2007 [22]. In the IEO2008 reference case, Viet- nomic development.
nam’s coal exports decline to about 0.2 quadrillion Btu in
2013 from an estimated 0.5 quadrillion Btu in 2006 and to Although 2001 marked the final year of significant
remain below 0.3 quadrillion Btu through 2030. Japanese coal production [27], Japan has continued to
rely on coal and is expected to remain the world’s largest
The African countries of Botswana, Mozambique, and importer of coal through 2030. Japan relies on Australia
Tanzania are expected to play an emerging role in coal for about 60 percent of its coal imports (both steam and
trade as importing countries seek to secure additional metallurgical coal) and on China for about 20 percent of
sources of supply. For example, India and Brazil are its steam coal imports. In addition, its purchases of coal
investing in mines and infrastructure projects in Africa. from Indonesia have increased recently, and it has initi-
India’s Tata Steel has acquired a 35-percent stake in a ated investments in coal production in other countries,
coking coal mine in Mozambique [23], and an expansion including Russia, in order to improve the security of its
of the Mozambique port of Beira to a capacity of 0.5 qua- coal supply [28]. Japan is a leader in steel production,
drillion Btu to accommodate coal exports is being pro- ranking second among world steel producers [29], and is
posed [24]. projected to continue to import coking coal for use in its
steelmaking plants in 2030.
South Africa currently is the sole source of seaborne coal
exports from Africa. In early 2008, an electricity shortage South Korea also is expected to continue importing most
forced the temporary closure of some of the country’s of the coal it consumes. With planned increases in
coal mines, leading to reduced production and the coal-fired capacity, South Korea and Taiwan together
diversion of some coal, originally intended for export, to are projected to maintain a share of world imports at
domestic power plants. Although South Africa has about 18 percent in 2030 despite sizable increases in
domestic infrastructure and energy supply problems to steam coal imports by other countries. Thailand is also
solve, and its coal exports have remained flat over the projected to increase steam coal imports by 2015, when
past few years, coal mining is expected to continue play- new coal-fired plants are constructed [30].
ing an important role in its economy. A scheduled
expansion of the Richards Bay Coal Terminal to add Europe, Middle East, and Africa
about 0.5 quadrillion Btu of export capacity in 2009 will In the IEO2008 reference case, total coal imports to the
support South Africa’s continued role as an interna- Europe/Mediterranean market (including the Middle
tional coal supplier [25]. East and Africa) in 2030 are only slightly above 2006 lev-
els (Figure 51). With most European countries placing
Coal Imports greater emphasis on natural gas in the power sector, coal
Asia becomes a less significant component of the fuel mix for
Asia poses a large area of uncertainty for world coal electricity generation. In Turkey, however, electricity
trade projections. In particular, China has the potential demand and steel industry growth are projected to off-
to influence the market both as an importer and as an set some of the decline in Europe’s coal imports. Italy’s
exporter. For example, a significant increase in China’s conversion of power plants from oil to coal also is

projected to increase its coal imports. The initial increase (7 percent), the increase represents a shift for the United
in coal trade to Europe in the projections result in large States from a net exporter to a net importer of coal. With
part from the phaseout of European mining subsidies declining productivity and mining difficulties in Central
and higher demand for lower sulfur coal. Germany’s Appalachia, and with rising domestic demand for coal,
hard-coal-fueled power plants are projected to require imports are expected to become increasingly competi-
imported coal when its hard coal mines close by 2018 tive for coastal States in the East and Southeast. South
[31]. In the Middle East, Israel accounts for the largest America (Colombia, in particular) is expected to be an
portion of the increase in coal imports over the projec- important source of U.S. coal imports.
tion period as it expands its use of coal-fired generation.
The demand for lower sulfur coal leads to an increase in Although Canada has been the largest importer of U.S.
the projected share of Europe’s coal imports originating coal in recent years, exports of U.S. steam coal to Canada
from South America and Eurasia. in 2030 are projected to be about 0.2 quadrillion Btu
below their 2006 level. It is expected that a portion of
The Americas Ontario’s coal-fired generating capacity will be shut
In 2008 Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP will com- down for environmental reasons.
plete a 0.4 quadrillion Btu expansion of its import termi-
Brazil’s steelmaking capacity is projected to double by
nal at Hampton Roads, Virginia; however, with high
2011 [33]. With rich reserves of iron ore but no cok-
international coal prices in the near term, the terminal is
ing-grade coal, Brazil’s steel industry will need more
expected to remain idle while U.S. exports increase to
imports of coking coal from Australia, Southern Africa,
meet short-term international demand [32]. In the mid-
Canada, and the United States. Overall, South America’s
to long term, port expansions are expected to facilitate
imports of coking coal—driven primarily by demand in
U.S. coal imports, which increase by about 1.2 quadril-
Brazil—are projected to grow from about 0.4 quadrillion
lion Btu from 2006 to 2030. Although imports remain a
Btu in 2006 to 0.9 quadrillion Btu in 2030.
relatively small share of U.S. coal consumption in 2030
World Coal Reserves
Figure 51. Coal Imports by Major Importing Total recoverable reserves of coal around the world are
Region, 1995-2030 estimated at 930 billion tons—reflecting a current
Quadrillion Btu reserves-to-production ratio of 143 (Table 9).13 His-
30
History Projections torically, estimates of world recoverable coal reserves,
although relatively stable, have declined gradually from
25
Total 1,174 billion tons in 1990 to 1,083 billion tons in 2000 and
930 billion tons in 2006 [34]. The most recent assessment
20
of world coal reserves includes a substantial downward
Asia adjustment for India, from 102 billion tons in 2003 to
15
62 billion tons in 2006. Estimated reserves for OECD
Europe of 32 billion tons in the most recent assessment
10 are also substantially lower than the 2003 assessment of
Europe/Mediterranean
43 billion tons. Much of the downward adjustment for
5 OECD Europe is a result of lower estimates for Poland,
Americas Turkey, and the Czech Republic. Poland’s reassessment
0 of estimated recoverable coal reserves from 15 billion
1995 2006 2015 2030
tons in 2003 to 8 billion tons in 2006 reflects the use of
Sources: History: SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., more restrictive criteria for geologic reliability [35].
SSY’s Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 16, No. 1 (London, UK, June
2007); International Energy Agency, Coal Information 2007 Although coal deposits are widely distributed, 76 per-
(Paris, France, August 2007), and previous issues; and Energy
cent of the world’s recoverable reserves are located in
Information Administration (EIA), Quarterly Coal Report, Octo-
ber-December 2006, DOE/EIA-0121(2006/4Q) (Washington, five countries: the United States (28 percent), Russia
DC, March 2007), and previous issues; Btu conversions from (19 percent), China (14 percent), Australia (9 percent)
short tons are estimates by EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and India (7 percent). In 2005 those five countries, taken
and Forecasting. Projections: EIA, National Energy Modeling together, produced 4.8 billion tons (94.0 quadrillion
System run IEO2008.D061008B. Btu) of coal, representing 73 percent (77 percent on a Btu
13 Recoverable reserves are those quantities of coal which geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can
be extracted in the future under existing economic and operating conditions. Because recoverable reserves are a subset of total coal
resources, recoverable reserve estimates for a number of countries, including China and the United States, could increase substantially as
coal mining technology improves and as additional geological assessments of the coal resource base are completed. The reserves-to-
production ratio is based on the reserves estimates and data on world coal production for 2005 shown in Table 9.

basis) of total world coal production [36]. By rank, an- References
thracite and bituminous coal account for 51 percent of 1. Energy Information Administration, International
the world’s estimated recoverable coal reserves on a ton- Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), Table 5.4,
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Table 9. World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2006

(Billion Short Tons)
Recoverable Reserves by Coal Rank
Bituminous Reserves-to-
and Subbitumi- 2005 Production
Region/Country Anthracite nous Lignite Total Production Ratio (Years)
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471.8 293.6 165.0 930.4 6.5 143
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120.6 109.8 33.4 263.8 1.1 233
Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.1 107.4 11.5 173.1 0.3 540
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68.6 37.1 20.5 126.2 2.4 52
Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . 49.1 19.0 27.3 95.3 0.3 307
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 40.9 2.5 41.6 85.1 0.4 203
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57.6 0.0 4.7 62.3 0.5 132
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.5 0.2 0.0 54.7 0.3 198
OECD Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 3.4 19.0 31.7 0.7 47
Other Central and South America . . . . . 8.0 2.2 0.0 10.2 0.1 138
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 4.5 9.7 0.3 34
Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 7.8 0.0 7.8 0.0 1,131
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 1.0 2.5 7.3 0.1 101
b
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 0.5 0.1 3.4 0.0 207
a
Data for the United States represent recoverable coal estimates as of January 1, 2007.
b
Includes Mexico, Middle East, Japan, and South Korea.
Sources: United States: Energy Information Administration (EIA), unpublished data from the Coal Reserves Database (March
2008). All Other Countries: World Energy Council, 2007 Survey of Energy Sources, 21st Edition (London, UK: Elsevier, September
2007), and EIA, International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea.

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8.2.

Chapter 5
Electricity
World electricity generation nearly doubles in the IEO2008 reference case from 2005 to 2030.
In 2030, generation in the non-OECD countries is projected to exceed
generation in the OECD countries by 46 percent.
Over the next 25 years, the world will become increas- percent of the population in the developing non-OECD
ingly dependent on electricity to meet its energy needs. countries (excluding non-OECD Europe and Eurasia) do
Electricity is expected to remain the fastest-growing not yet have access to electricity—a total of about 1.6 bil-
form of end-use energy worldwide through 2030, as it lion people [1]. With the strong economic growth pro-
has been over the past several decades. Nearly one-half jected for the developing non-OECD nations, substantial
of the projected increase in energy consumption world- increases in electricity generation will be needed to meet
wide from 2005 to 2030 is attributed to electricity genera- demand in the residential, commercial, and industrial
tion in the IEO2008 reference case. Since 1990, growth in sectors.
net generation has outpaced the growth in total energy
consumption (2.9 percent per year and 1.9 percent Although the non-OECD nations consumed 24 percent
per year, respectively), and generation is expected to less electricity than the OECD nations in 2005, total
increase at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent through non-OECD electricity generation in 2030 is projected to
2030 as the growth in demand for electricity continues to exceed OECD generation by 46 percent (Figure 53). In
outpace growth in total energy use (Figure 52). the developing countries, strong economic growth
translates to growing demand for electricity. Increases
World net electricity generation nearly doubles in the in per capita income lead to improved standards of
reference case, from 17.3 trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to living, rising consumer demand for lighting and appli-
24.4 trillion kilowatthours in 2015 and 33.3 trillion kilo- ances, and growing requirements for electricity in the
watthours in 2030 (Table 10). In general, growth in the industrial sector. As a result, total non-OECD electricity
OECD countries, where electricity markets are well generation increases by an average of 4.0 percent per
established and consuming patterns are mature, is year in the reference case, as compared with a projected
slower than in the non-OECD countries, where a large average annual growth rate in OECD electricity genera-
amount of demand remains unsatisfied. The Interna- tion of 1.3 percent from 2005 to 2030.
tional Energy Agency has estimated that nearly 32
Figure 52. Growth in World Electric Power Figure 53. World Net Electric Power Generation,
Generation and Total Energy 1990-2030
Consumption, 1990-2030 Trillion Kilowatthours
Index, 1990 = 1 40
4 History Projections
History Projections 33.3
30.4
30 Non-OECD 27.5
3 Net 24.4
OECD
Electricity 21.0
Generation 20
17.3
2 14.6
12.6
Total 11.3
10
Energy
1
Consumption
0
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1990 1995 2005 2015 2030 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity Module
Projections Plus (2008). (2008).

Electricity Supply by Energy Source Coal
The mix of primary fuels used to generate electricity has In the IEO2008 reference case, while natural gas is the
changed a great deal over the past two decades on a fastest-growing energy source for electricity generation
worldwide basis. Coal has continued to be the fuel most worldwide, coal continues to provide the largest share,
widely used for electricity generation, although genera- by a wide margin, of the energy used for electric power
tion from nuclear power increased rapidly from the production (Figure 54). In 2005, coal-fired generation
1970s through the 1980s, and natural-gas-fired genera- accounted for 41 percent of world electricity supply; in
tion grew rapidly in the 1980s and 1990s. The use of oil 2030, its share is projected to be 46 percent. Sustained
for electricity generation has been declining since the high prices for oil and natural gas make coal-fired gener-
mid-1970s, when the oil embargo by Arab producers in ation more attractive economically, particularly in
1973-1974 and the Iranian Revolution in 1979 produced nations that are rich in coal resources, which include
oil price shocks. China, India, and the United States. The 3.1-percent pro-
jected annual growth rate for coal-fired electricity gener-
High world oil prices—which have moved upward in ation worldwide is exceeded only by the 3.7-percent
every year since 2003—in combination with concerns growth rate projected for natural-gas-fired generation.
about the environmental consequences of greenhouse
gas emissions are raising renewed interest in nuclear The outlook for coal-fired generation could be altered
power and renewable energy sources as alternatives to substantially by international agreements to reduce
the use of coal and natural gas for electric power genera- greenhouse gas emissions. The electric power sector
tion. Projections of future coal use are particularly sensi- offers some of the most cost-effective opportunities for
tive to assumptions about future policies that might be reducing carbon dioxide emissions in many countries.
adopted to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Coal is both the world’s most widely used source of
Table 10. OECD and Non-OECD Net Electricty Generation by Fuel, 2005-2030
(Trillion Kilowatthours)
Average Annual
Percent Change,
Region 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
Liquids and Other Petroleum . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -2.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.7 2.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 1.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 0.6
Renewables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.6
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 10.8 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.5 1.3
Non-OECD
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 5.0 6.6 7.8 9.2 10.6 4.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 4.5
Renewables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.1
Total Non-OECD. . . . . . . . . . . 7.5 10.2 12.9 15.3 17.6 19.7 4.0
World
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 4.7 5.9 7.0 7.7 8.4 3.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 9.0 10.7 12.1 13.7 15.4 3.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.8 1.4
Renewables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.0 1.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 21.0 24.4 27.5 30.4 33.3 2.6
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
web site www. eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity Module
(2008).

energy for power generation and also the most carbon- takes for coal-fired and some other generating capacity),
intensive energy source. If a cost, either implicit or relatively short planning and construction times
explicit, were applied to emitters of carbon dioxide, (months instead of the years that nuclear power plants
there are several alternative no- or low-emission tech- typically require), and capital costs that are lower than
nologies that currently are commercially proven or those for other technologies.
under development, which could be used to replace
some coal-fired generation. Implementing the technolo- Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum
gies would not require expensive, large-scale changes in With world oil prices projected to stay relatively high,
the power distribution infrastructure or in electricity- reaching $113 per barrel (in nominal dollars) at the end
using equipment. of the IEO2008 projection in 2030, liquids are the only
energy source for power generation that is projected to
It could be more difficult, however, to achieve similar decline on a worldwide basis. As oil prices remain high,
results in the end-use sectors. In the transportation sec- nations are expected to reduce or eliminate their use of
tor, for instance, large-scale reduction of carbon dioxide oil for generation—opting instead for more economical
emissions probably would require extensive changes in sources of electricity, including coal. Worldwide, gener-
the motor vehicle fleet, fueling stations, and fuel distri- ation fueled by liquids is projected to decline by an aver-
bution systems, at tremendous expense. In contrast, sub- age of 0.9 percent per year from 2005 to 2030; and in the
stitution of nuclear power and renewables for fossil OECD nations, it is projected to decline by 2.4 percent
fuels in the electric power sector would be a compara- per year. Only the non-OECD Middle East region, with
tively inexpensive way to reduce emissions, as would its ample oil reserves and a current 36-percent share of
improving the efficiency of electric appliances. total electricity generation fueled by oil, is projected to
Natural Gas continue relying heavily on oil to meet its electricity
needs.
Although natural gas is the fastest-growing energy
source for electric power generation in the IEO2008 ref- Nuclear Power
erence case projection—increasing from 3.4 trillion kilo- Electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to
watthours in 2005 to 8.4 trillion kilowatthours in 2030— increase from about 2.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to
the total amount of electricity generated from natural 3.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2030, as concerns about ris-
gas continues to be only about one-half the total for ing fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse
coal, even in 2030. Natural-gas-fired combined-cycle gas emissions support the development of new nuclear
capacity is an attractive choice for new power plants generation capacity. High prices for fossil fuels allow
because of its fuel efficiency, operating flexibility (it can nuclear power to become economically competitive
be brought on line in minutes rather than the hours it with generation from coal, natural gas, and liquids
despite the relatively high capital and maintenance costs
Figure 54. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, associated with nuclear power plants. Moreover, higher
2005-2030 capacity utilization rates have been reported for many
Trillion Kilowatthours existing nuclear facilities, and it is anticipated that most
20 of the older nuclear power plants in the OECD countries
Coal
Natural Gas and non-OECD Eurasia will be granted extensions to
Renewables
Nuclear their operating lives. Still, there is considerable uncer-
15 Liquids tainty associated with nuclear power.
Around the world, nuclear generation is attracting new

10 interest as countries look to increase the diversity of
their energy supplies, improve energy security, and pro-
vide a low-carbon alternative to fossil fuels. For instance,
5 each of the world’s three largest coal-consuming nations
(China, the United States, and India) is projected to
expand nuclear capacity significantly over the next 25
years (see box on page 64). The nuclear power profile
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 was raised further at the December 2007, United Nations
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-
Climate Change Conference in Bali, when International
tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October Energy Agency Director Nobuo Tanaka suggested that
2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, nuclear power would have to be part of the solution to
System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global “stabilize and reduce man-made emissions in the fore-
Electricity Module (2008). seeable future” [2].

Mid-Term Prospects for Nuclear Electricity Generation in China, India, and the United States
Around the world, nuclear power plants are getting •The United States is projected to add 16.6 gigawatts
renewed attention and consideration as an option for of new nuclear capacity and 2.7 gigawatts of capac-
electricity generation to meet rising demand in the ity in the form of uprates to existing plants. Those
future. For many years, analysts expected nuclear increases are partially offset, however, by the antic-
power to grow slowly in the short term and decline in ipated retirement of several older reactors.
the long term. More recently, however, many countries
have begun looking anew at nuclear power to displace China
generation from fossil fuels, in response to both sus- China is trying to diversify its sources of electricity,
tained high prices for oil and natural gas and the desire and increasing nuclear power capacity is seen as a
to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, con- strategy to achieve that goal. Unlike most of the OECD
cerns about energy security among those nations that nations, China will be able to expand its nuclear pro-
rely heavily on fossil fuel imports have made nuclear gram largely without political deterrents.
power an attractive option for electricity production.
At present, China has 11 commercial nuclear power
Still, there are barriers to the nuclear power option,
reactors in operation, 6 of which have been brought on
including public concerns about plant safety, disposal
line since 2002. Another 6 plants are currently under
of radioactive waste, and nuclear weapons prolifera-
construction, and several more are in various stages of
tion—not to mention the relatively high capital and
planning.a The Chinese government is also in the pro-
maintenance costs of nuclear plants. Even if safety,
cess of awarding billions of dollars in contracts to build
health, and political concerns were answered suffi-
additional nuclear plants. France’s AREVA, Russia’s
ciently to allow new nuclear plants to be built, the esca-
AtomStroyExport, and U.S.-based Westinghouse all
lating expense of building them (particularly, in
have won bids. In the world’s largest nuclear power
comparison with capital costs for other plant types)
deal to date, China will pay $11.9 billion to AREVA to
could prevent them from being constructed. The costs
build two nuclear reactors.
of commodities such as iron, steel, cement, and con-
crete, as well as the capital costs of energy equipment China hopes to construct 30 new reactors by 2020,
and facilities, all have increased substantially in the increasing its nuclear portfolio from 2.3 percent of the
past few years; and because nuclear plants tend to be (continued on page 65)
more capital intensive than fossil fuel generators, these
cost increases tended to make nuclear power less com-
petitive despite the recent surge in fossil fuel prices. Nuclear Electricity Generation Capacity in China,
India, and the United States, 2005, 2015, and 2030
In at least three countries—China, India, and the
Gigawatts
United States—nuclear power currently is positioned 125
115
for strong growth (see figure opposite): China India United States
100 102
•Although China has the youngest nuclear power 100
program of the three nations (its first nuclear power
plant began operating in 1991), it is expected to add
75
a net 45 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2030. In the
IEO2008 reference case, China’s nuclear electricity 52
generation increases from 50 billion kilowatthours 50
in 2005 to 410 billion kilowatthours in 2030, an aver-
age annual growth rate of 8.8 percent. 25 22 20
•India is projected to add 17 gigawatts of new 7 9
3
nuclear capacity and increase production by 9.4 0
percent annually. Although India has not signed 2005 2015 2030
the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
(NPT), it is expected to forge an agreement with the International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
United States and the International Atomic Energy site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, System
Agency (IAEA) that will allow it to import suffi- for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity
cient fuel and reactor parts to achieve the projected Module (2008).
increase.
aInternational Atomic Energy Association, “Power Reactor Information System,” web site www.iaea.org/programmes/a2/index.
html; and “China’s Nuclear Power Aspirations,” Energy Biz Insider (December 12, 2007).

Mid-Term Prospects for Nuclear Electricity Generation in China, India, and the United States (Continued)
country’s total electricity generation in 2008 to 6 In the IEO2008 reference case, India’s nuclear power
percent in 2020. By 2050, it aims to have at least 150 capacity grows rapidly, by an average of 8.2 percent
gigawatts of installed nuclear capacity, providing per year, to 14 gigawatts in 2020 and 20 gigawatts in
22 percent of the country’s projected generation mix.b 2030. The projection still falls short, however, of the
In the IEO2008 reference case, China’s installed nuclear Indian Prime Minister’s goal of achieving 20 gigawatts
capacity reaches 35 gigawatts in 2020, 45 gigawatts in of operating nuclear generation capacity by 2020.
2025, and 52 gigawatts in 2030, which would supply
5 percent of its total electricity generation in 2030. United States
The United States has the world’s oldest commercial
India nuclear power program. The first electric power gener-
India’s first nuclear power plant became operational in ation from nuclear energy occurred on December 20,
1969. Since that time, however, the growth in operating 1951, in Arco, Idaho; and the world’s first large-scale
nuclear capacity has been slow and, at best, uneven. In nuclear power plant, a 60-megawatt pressurized-water
2005 nuclear power accounted for just 2.4 percent of reactor, began operation on December 2, 1957, in
India’s electricity generation, and its operating nuclear Shippingport, Pennsylvania. The U.S. program ex-
capacity totaled only 2.8 gigawatts. Because India has panded quickly in the 1960s and 1970s. Nuclear gener-
refused to sign the NPT, it has been barred from ation supplied 2.4 percent of U.S. electricity in 1971,
importing nuclear reactors and fuel from the 45-nation 11 percent in 1979, and 20 percent at its height in 1992,
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). when 111 U.S. nuclear generators were in operation.
Today, 103 nuclear power plants supply nearly 800 bil-
In response to rapid growth in electricity demand, lion kilowatthours of electricity in the United States—
India is intent on increasing its generation from nuclear just under 20 percent of total U.S. generation.
power. The country’s Department of Atomic Energy
has a goal of increasing nuclear capacity to 20 giga- In the mid- to late 1970s, U.S. public opinion started to
watts by 2020, more than seven times the current turn against nuclear power. The rapidly escalating
installed nuclear capacity.c costs of building nuclear plants, including the costs of
added safety measures, throughout the 1970s and
To support such an expansion of its nuclear program, 1980s contributed to large increases in electricity
India began talks with the United States in July 2005, in prices. Aside from the costs of building and maintain-
an effort to build favorable conditions that will allow it ing nuclear plants, the potential dangers of plant mal-
to purchase nuclear reactor parts and fuel. On the part functions and the storage of hazardous radioactive
of the United States, negotiations are aimed at persuad- wastes were major concerns. In 1978, an accident
ing India to agree to some nonproliferation measures occurred at the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in cen-
that would enable it to import nuclear materials with- tral Pennsylvania, when a loss of coolant from the reac-
out becoming a full signatory to the NPT. The negotia- tor core caused a partial meltdown and some release of
tions are suspended at present because of dissent radioactivity into the immediate vicinity. No new con-
among members of some of India’s political parties, struction of a nuclear plant has been started since the
who do not trust the political, economic, and military Three Mile Island accident.
relationships being developed as part of the strategic
partnership between India and the United States. The More recently, nuclear energy has increasingly come
talks are expected to resume in the near future.d to be seen as a practical way for the United States
to meet rising energy demands while releasing less
The NSG is awaiting the conclusion of the U.S.-India carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and, simulta-
negotiations, as well as a safeguards agreement neously, increasing energy security. The Energy Policy
between India and the IAEA, before deciding whether Act of 2005 (EPACT2005) contained several provisions
to grant India an exception to nuclear import restric- designed to encourage construction of new nuclear
tions. Several countries, including France, Russia and power plants, including a production tax credit of
Australia, are already discussing nuclear cooperation 1.8 cents per kilowatthour for up to 6 gigawatts of
and contract deals with India in the event that an new nuclear capacity brought on line before 2021. The
exception to the NSG guidelines is extended to India. credit was authorized for the first 8 years of a plant’s
(continued on page 66)
b“China’s Nuclear Power Aspirations,” Energy Biz Insider (December 12, 2007).
cWorld Nuclear Association, "Nuclear Power in India," Information Paper (July 2008), web site www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf53.
html.
d“India’s Nuclear Hopes Hit the Buffers,” Power In Asia, No. 489 (October 25, 2007), pp. 8-9.

Mid-Term Prospects for Nuclear Electricity Generation in China, India, and the United States (Continued)
operation and up to $125 million for each 1,000- By 2010, 23 entities are expected to have submitted
megawatt unit. EPACT2005 also authorized Federal combined license applications for the construction of
risk insurance for companies building the next six 34 new power plants in the United States.e It may, how-
nuclear power plants. In addition, EPACT2005 Title 17 ever, take many more years to get plants built in the
included a provision enabling the Government to United States than in either China or India, and any
guarantee loans for the construction of new energy negative (or positive) experiences in those countries
technologies “that reduce or avoid greenhouse gases,” could have impacts on U.S. public opinion that would
including nuclear power plants. The Secretary of affect efforts to develop new nuclear plants.
Energy was given the authority, upon choosing a
project, to guarantee a loan of up to 80 percent of the In the IEO2008 reference case, 17 gigawatts of new
project’s cost. Such loan guarantees could decrease nuclear capacity is projected to come on line by 2030.
the costs of nuclear power significantly, by reducing The nuclear share of total U.S. electricity generation
interest rates on the debt and allowing higher debt-to- remains below 20 percent throughout most of the fore-
equity ratios. cast, however, as older nuclear plants are retired and
new generators of other types, especially coal-fired, are
built.
eU.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Expected New Nuclear Power Plant Applications,” web site www.nrc.gov/reactors/
new-licensing/new-licensing-files/expected-new-rx-applications.pdf (updated July 9, 2008).
Issues that could slow the expansion of nuclear power in times associated with nuclear power plants, there is
the future include plant safety, radioactive waste dis- general agreement among analysts about the nuclear
posal, and concerns that weapons-grade uranium may projects that are likely to become operational in the
be produced from centrifuges installed to enrich ura- mid-term. After 2015, the projections are based on a
nium for civilian nuclear power programs. These issues combination of announced plans or goals at the country
continue to raise public concerns in many countries and and regional levels and consideration of other issues fac-
may hinder the development of new nuclear power ing the development of nuclear power, including eco-
reactors. Nevertheless, the IEO2008 reference case incor- nomics, geopolitical issues, technology advances, and
porates the improved prospects for world nuclear environmental policies. The availability of potential ura-
power. The IEO2008 projection for nuclear electricity nium resources was also considered as part of the
generation in 2025 is 31 percent higher than the projec- IEO2008 modeling effort. Reserves appear to be more
tion published in IEO2003 only 5 years ago. than sufficient to meet the expected growth in nuclear
capacity worldwide (see box on page 67).
On a regional basis, the IEO2008 reference case projects
the strongest growth in nuclear power for the countries
of non-OECD Asia. For example, in China, electricity Figure 55. World Net Electricity Generation from
generation from nuclear power is projected to grow at Nuclear Power, 1980-2030
an average annual rate of 8.8 percent from 2005 to 2030, Trillion Kilowatthours
1.25
and in India it is projected to increase by an average of History Projections
9.4 percent per year. Outside Asia, the largest increase in
installed nuclear capacity among the non-OECD nations 1.00
is projected for Russia, where nuclear power generation OECD Europe
increases by an average of 3.2 percent per year. In con-
0.75
trast, OECD Europe is expected to see a decline in
nuclear power generation as some national govern- North America Rest of World
ments, including those of Germany and Belgium, still 0.50
OECD Asia
have plans in place to phase out nuclear programs
entirely (Figure 55).
0.25 Russia
To address the uncertainty inherent in projections of
nuclear power growth in the long term, a two-step China
0.00
approach was used to formulate the outlook for nuclear 1980 1995 2005 2015 2030
power in IEO2008. In the mid-term (through 2015), pro- Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
jections are based primarily on the current activities of International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
the nuclear power industry and national governments. site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis
Because of the long permitting and construction lead of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity Module (2008).

Hydroelectricity and Other Renewables fuels. Renewable energy sources are attractive for
In the IEO2008 reference case, electricity generation environmental reasons, especially in countries where
from hydroelectric and other renewable energy re- reducing greenhouse gas emissions is of particular con-
sources is projected to increase at an average annual rate cern. Government policies and incentives to increase the
of 1.8 percent from 2005 to 2030. High prices for oil and use of renewable energy sources for electricity genera-
natural gas, which are expected to persist in the refer- tion are expected to encourage the development of
ence case, also encourage expanded use of renewable renewable energy even when it cannot compete
Uranium Supplies Are Sufficient To Power Reactors Worldwide Through 2030

Current uranium reserves should be adequate to meet Even in the lowest cost tier, less than $40 per kilogram,
additional demand as worldwide installed nuclear total uranium reserves should be sufficient to meet the
capacity increases to the 498 gigawatts in 2030 pro- requirements for projected nuclear capacity in 2030. In
jected in the IEO2008 reference case. According to addition, with the spot price of uranium oxide having
results from the demand model used by the OECD risen from $14.1 per kilogram in January 2001 to $163.1
Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic per kilogram (equivalent to $192.4 per kilogram of ura-
Energy Agency, annual uranium requirements are nium) during the week of March 7, 2008, and expected
expected to grow from 68,000 metric tons per year in to remain high, it seems unlikely that production costs
2005 to 96,000 metric tons per year in 2030.a The cumu- will hamper the future supply of uranium.e
lative demand for uranium to meet the projected
increase in nuclear electricity generation from 2005 to Assuming that the available uranium resources will be
2030 would be 2.1 million metric tons.b,c adequate, more uranium production will be needed to
ensure the annual delivery of 96,000 metric tons. In
Uranium resources are divided into four groups, based recent years, 40 to 50 percent of the world’s uranium
on the confidence of supply estimation. Reasonably supply has come from secondary sources, including
assured resources (RAR) are known uranium deposits stockpiles of uranium, reprocessed spent fuel, and
that can be recovered with current mining technologies re-enriched depleted uranium tails.f Those secondary
and methods. Inferred resources are uranium deposits sources are expected to decline over the next 5 years, as
that are believed to exist, based on direct geological the “Megatons to Megawatts” program, which con-
evidence, but have not been studied as thoroughly as verts decommissioned Russian warheads into com-
RAR. Resources could be expanded even further with mercial fuel, concludes in 2013. Primary production,
prognosticated resources—uranium deposits expected to which provided 40,263 metric tons of uranium in 2004,
exist on the basis of indirect evidence—and speculative will have to be increased further to make up for dimin-
resources thought to exist on the basis of geological ishing secondary sources and increasing demand.g
extrapolations.d The table below shows the two groups
of worldwide uranium reserves estimated with the The relatively high price of uranium already is leading
highest confidence, at various production cost levels. to increased output. New mines in Australia, Canada,
Kazakhstan, Brazil, and India are expected to add
Metric Tons of Uranium Reserves
Production Cost
as of January 1, 2005 30,000 metric tons of production capacity by 2010.h The
(Nominal U.S. Dollars
reference case used by the World Nuclear Association
per Kilogram of Reasonably
Uranium) Assured Inferred Total projects the addition of 30,000 metric tons of supply by
Less Than $40 . . . . . . . . 1,947,000 799,000 2,746,000
2015, before uranium mining slowly decreases to 90
percent of its peak 2015 level in 2030.i Also, the ura-
Less Than $80 . . . . . . . . 2,643,000 1,161,000 3,804,000
nium supply can be extended further by worldwide
Less Than $130 . . . . . . . 3,297,000 1,446,000 4,743,000 recycling of spent fuel and the use of breeder reactors.
aInternational Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), p. 377, web site www.iea.org/textbase/
nppdf/free/2006/weo2006.pdf.
bInternational Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 379.
cAssuming that 4 metric tons of uranium is required to fuel 1 million watts of nuclear capacity.
dInternational Atomic Energy Agency, Analysis of Uranium Supply to 2050 (Vienna, Austria, May 2001), pp. 2-3, web site www-pub.iaea.
org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1104_scr.pdf.
eTradeTech Uranium.Info Web Site, “Uranium Spot Price Indicator,” web site www.uranium.info.
fInternational Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 377.
gInternational Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 380.
hY. Sokolov, “Uranium Resources: Plenty To Sustain Growth of Nuclear Power,” Statements of the Deputy Directors General (Vienna,
Austria, June 1, 2006), web site www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/DDGs/2006/sokolov01062006.html.

iWorld Nuclear Association, The Global Nuclear Fuel Market: Supply and Demand 2007-2030 (London, UK, 2007), p. 112, web site www.
world-nuclear.org/reference/publications.html.

economically with fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the renew- demand for electric power. In the OECD countries,
able share of world electricity generation falls slightly in where electric power infrastructures are relatively
the projection, from 18 percent in 2005 to 15 percent in mature, national populations generally are expected to
2030, as growth in the consumption of both coal and nat- grow slowly or decline, and GDP growth is expected to
ural gas in the electricity generation sector worldwide be slower than in the developing nations, the increases
exceeds the growth in renewable sources of generation. in demand for electricity are projected to be much
The capital costs of new power plants using renewable slower than those in the non-OECD countries. For exam-
fuels remain relatively high in comparison with those ple, electricity demand in China is projected to grow by
for plants fired with coal or natural gas. an annual average of 5.4 percent from 2005 to 2030,
which is more than five times the rate projected for the
There is wide variation in the expectations for renewable United States (Figure 56).
energy use among the non-OECD countries. In the
developing non-OECD nations of Asia and Central and OECD Economies
South America, mid- to large-scale hydroelectric power North America
plants are likely to dominate increases in renewable
energy use over the projection period. China, India, and In 2005, electricity generation in North America totaled
Brazil all have plans to expand hydroelectric capacity to 4.9 trillion kilowatthours and accounted for 28 percent
help meet growing electricity demand. In contrast, of the world’s total generation. That share is projected
hydroelectricity is not likely to expand strongly in the to decline over the course of the projection period, as
Middle East, where few countries have the natural the non-OECD nations experience fast-paced growth
resources needed to power hydroelectric facilities. in electric power demand. In 2030, North America
accounts for only 20 percent of the world’s electric
Among the OECD nations, hydroelectricity is fairly well power generation.
established, and there are few plans to install major
hydroelectric power projects in the future (with the The United States is the largest consumer of electricity
exception of Canada and Turkey). Most of the growth in in North America and is projected to remain in that
renewable electricity in the OECD countries is instead position through 2030 (Figure 57). U.S. electricity gener-
likely to come from nonhydroelectric renewable energy ation—including both generation by electric power pro-
sources, especially wind and biomass. A number of ducers and on-site generation—is projected to increase
OECD countries have incentives in place to increase the slowly, at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent. Canada,
use of nonhydroelectric renewables for power genera- like the United States, has a mature electricity market,
tion, particularly to help stem the growth of greenhouse and its generation is projected to increase by 1.5 percent
gas emissions produced by fossil fuel use and to pro- per year from 2005 to 2030. Mexico’s electricity genera-
mote energy independence. In the IEO2008 reference tion grows at a faster rate—averaging 3.3 percent per
case, OECD renewable generation grows by 1.6 percent
per year from 2005 to 2030, second only to the growth
rate for natural-gas-fired generation. Figure 56. Net Electricity Generation in the United
States and China, 1980-2030
The IEO2008 projections for hydroelectricity and other Trillion Kilowatthours
10
renewable energy resources include only marketed History Projections
renewables. Non-marketed (noncommercial) biofuels
from plant and animal sources are an important source 8
of energy, particularly in non-OECD economies, and the United States China
International Energy Agency has estimated that some
2.5 billion people in developing countries depend on tra- 6
ditional biomass as their main fuel for cooking [3].
Non-marketed fuels and dispersed renewables (renew- 4
able energy consumed on the site of production, such as
energy from solar panels used to heat water) are not
included in the projections, however, because compre- 2
hensive data on their use are not available.
0
Regional Outlook 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
In the IEO2008 reference case, the highest projected International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
growth rates for electricity generation are for the site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the
non-OECD nations, where strong economic growth and Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity Module
rising personal incomes drive the projected growth in (2008).

year through 2030—reflecting the relatively undevel- just below 50 percent until 2018, then increases to 54 per-
oped state of the country’s electric power infrastructure. cent in 2030. The rise in U.S. coal-fired generation in the
IEO2008 reference case is explained by a combination of
There are large differences in the mix of energy sources coal prices that remain substantially lower than natural
used to generate electricity in the three countries that gas prices throughout the projection and the absence of
make up OECD North America, and those differences legislation restricting the growth of carbon dioxide
are likely to become more pronounced in the future emissions. Recent EIA analysis suggests that the enact-
(Figure 58). In the United States, coal is the leading ment of such legislation would lead to significant
source of energy for power generation, accounting for 50 changes in the projected U.S. generation mix.14
percent of the 2005 total; but in Canada, renewable
energy sources (predominantly hydroelectricity) pro- Generation from renewable energy sources in the
vided 60 percent of the nation’s electricity generation in United States increases in the reference case from 0.4
2005. Most of Mexico’s electricity generation currently is trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to 0.7 trillion kilowatt-
fueled by petroleum-based liquids and natural gas, hours in 2030, with much of the growth attributable to
which together accounted for 61 percent of its total elec- nonhydroelectric renewable generation. The use of
tricity generation in 2005. In the reference case projec- wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass increases largely
tions for 2030, U.S. reliance on coal is even greater than it as a result of State renewable portfolio standard (RPS)
is today; Canada’s hydropower resources (along with programs, which require that specific and generally
some generation from wind capacity scheduled to be increasing shares of electricity sales be supplied by
built) continue to provide nearly 60 percent of its elec- renewable resources. Given that the consumer costs of
tricity; and the natural gas share of Mexico’s total elec- the RPS programs would increase significantly if Fed-
tricity generation increases from 35 percent in 2005 to 71 eral production tax credits expired, past projections
percent in 2030. gave more weight to the probability that generators
would exercise so-called “escape clauses” and opt out of
In the United States, much of the growth in electricity the programs. IEO2008 assumes that, in the absence of a
generation is projected to be from coal-fired generation clear indication to the contrary, State RPS goals will be
and renewables, rather than natural gas. The U.S. natu- met and result in substantial additional growth of gener-
ral gas share of electricity generation (including genera- ation from wind, biomass, and geothermal resources.
tion in the end-use sectors) remains between 20 percent
and 21 percent through 2017, then falls to 14 percent in The United States is expected to add 14.6 gigawatts of
2030. The coal share of generation, in contrast, remains net nuclear installed capacity between 2005 and 2030.
Figure 57. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Figure 58. Net Electricity Generation in OECD
North America, 2005-2030 North America by Fuel, 2005 and 2030
Trillion Kilowatthours Percent of Total
8 100
Mexico
Canada
80
6 United States Nuclear
Renewables
60
Natural Gas
4
40 Coal
Liquids
2 20
0
0 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 United States Canada Mexico
Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System
Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity Module for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity
(2008). Module (2008).
14 See Energy Information Administration, Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of
2007, SR-OIAF/2008- 01 (Washington, DC, April 2008); and Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 1766, the Low Carbon Economy Act of
2007, SR-OIAF/2007-06 (Washington, DC, January 2008), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ oiaf/service_rpts.htm.

The increase includes 16.6 gigawatts of newly built 2007, Natural Resources Canada announced its new
nuclear facilities and 2.7 gigawatts of uprates at existing “ecoENERGY for Renewable Power” program as a
nuclear power plants. The additional nuclear power follow-up to its Wind Power Production Incentive
capacity is offset, in part, by the retirement of 4.5 (WPPI).15 The new program will allow an additional
gigawatts of capacity at older nuclear power plants. 3,000 megawatts of wind power to be installed by 2011
[8].
In Canada, generation from natural gas is projected to
increase, while coal-fired generation remains flat and In addition to the incentive programs of Canada’s fed-
oil-fired generation declines. The Province of Ontario eral government, several provincial governments have
had announced plans to close all its coal-fired plants by instituted their own incentives to support the construc-
the end of 2007 because of health and environmental tion of new wind capacity. Ontario’s Renewable Energy
concerns, but that date has since been pushed back to Standard Offer Program has helped support robust
2014. In 2007, the Ontario Power Authority—responsi- growth in wind installations over the past several years,
ble for ensuring an adequate supply of electric power— and installed wind capacity in the province has risen
filed a 20-year, $60 billion plan (U.S. dollars) for the from 0.6 megawatts in 1995 to more than 490 megawatts
Province’s electricity system, including the phaseout of in 2006 and hit the 500-megawatt milestone in January
coal-fired capacity [4]. In the reference case, those retire- 2008 [9]. The Standard Offer Program pays all small
ments are offset by increases elsewhere in the coun- renewable energy generators (with installed capacity
try—notably, Alberta and Nova Scotia. As a result, less than 10 megawatts) 11.0 cents (Canadian) per
Canada’s coal-fired generation remains flat through kilowatthour of electricity delivered to local electricity
2030, at about 0.1 trillion kilowatthours. Increases in distributors [10] and 42.0 cents per kilowatthour for elec-
Canada’s total electricity generation are fueled instead tricity from solar photovoltaic projects. Contracts
by natural gas (increasing by 4.2 percent per year), between Ontario Power Authority and the small renew-
nuclear power (1.7 percent per year), and hydroelectric- able generators last for a term of 20 years, and beginning
ity and other renewables (1.4 percent per year). in 2007 a portion of the rate paid to generators was to be
indexed annually for inflation. Support from Canada’s
Hydroelectricity remains a key source of electricity for federal and provincial governments—along with sus-
Canada. In 2005, the hydroelectric share of total gen- tained higher world oil prices—is expected to support
eration in Canada was 59 percent. In addition, several the projected increase in the country’s use of wind
large- and small-scale hydroelectric facilities currently power for electricity generation.
are either planned or under construction in Canada.
Hydro-Québec has announced plans to construct a Most of the projected increase in Mexico’s electricity
768-megawatt powerhouse near Eastman and a smaller generation is fueled by natural gas. At 0.4 trillion
120-megawatt facility at Sarcelle in Québec, both of kilowatthours, natural-gas-fired generation in 2030 is 5
which are expected to be fully commissioned by 2012 [5]. times the 2005 level. The resulting growth in Mexico’s
Other planned hydroelectric projects include the demand for natural gas strongly outpaces its produc-
2,260-megawatt Lower Churchill River project in New- tion, leaving the country dependent on pipeline imports
foundland and Labrador, the 1,550-megawatt Romaine from the United States and LNG from other countries.
River project in Québec, and the 200-megawatt Currently, Mexico has one LNG import terminal operat-
Wuskwatim project in Manitoba [6]. The IEO2008 refer- ing and a second under construction, in part to fuel the
ence case does not anticipate that all planned projects expected growth in electricity demand. Its first LNG
will be constructed, but given Canada’s historical expe- facility, Altamira, became operational in 2006 and the
rience with hydropower and the commitments for con- second, Costa Azul, is under construction and expected
struction, new hydroelectric capacity accounts for more to be on line by the end of 2008 [11].
than one-half of the 29,600 megawatts of additional
renewable capacity projected to be added in Canada Mexico’s electricity generation is projected to increase
between 2005 and 2030. by an average of 3.3 percent annually from 2005 to
2030—double the rate for Canada and triple the rate for
Although hydropower plays a major role in Canada’s the United States—and its government has recognized
renewable electricity generation, the country also has the need for electricity infrastructure to keep pace with
plans to expand wind-powered generating capacity growth in demand. In early 2008, the government
in the future. In 2007, 386 megawatts of installed announced plans to invest around $3.1 billion in electric-
wind capacity was added, bringing the total to 1,846 ity infrastructure in 2008 under the 2007-2012 National
megawatts and giving Canada the world’s eleventh- Infrastructure Programme [12]. As part of a major plan
largest national installed wind capacity [7]. In January to increase power generation, the state-owned Comisión
15 The WPPI supports the development of 4,000 megawatts of wind power by 2010, with qualifying wind producers eligible to receive an
incentive of $0.01 per kilowatthour (Canadian dollars) for the first 10 years of production from new installations.

Federal de Electricidad (CFE) expects to begin construc- substantial nuclear programs, have policies in effect to
tion in 2009 on a 652-megawatt natural-gas-fired com- reduce their use of nuclear power in the future; how-
bined-cycle power plant, Norte II in Chihuahua, with a ever, it is unclear whether the planned nuclear plant clo-
completion target of 2011 [13]. The CFE has announced sures will actually take place, given that nuclear power
plans to add more than 26 gigawatts of new installed plants produce no carbon dioxide emissions. As a result,
electric power capacity by 2017. the reference case projects more license extensions and
fewer retirements of operating nuclear power plants
OECD Europe than were expected in earlier assessments, as well as
Electricity generation in the nations of OECD Europe some new builds (about 18 gigawatts of new nuclear
increases by an average of 1.4 percent per year in the capacity) in France, Finland, and possibly other coun-
IEO2008 reference case, from 3.3 trillion kilowatthours tries of OECD Europe.
in 2005 to 4.0 trillion kilowatthours in 2015 and 4.7 tril-
Coal accounts for nearly one-third of OECD Europe’s
lion kilowatthours in 2030. Because most of the OECD
net generation today, but concerns about carbon dioxide
Europe countries have relatively stable populations and
emissions and global warming could reduce that share
mature electricity markets, most of the growth in elec-
in the future. On the other hand, in countries that rely
tricity demand is projected to come from those with
heavily on coal for their electricity supplies (including
more robust population growth (including Turkey, Ire-
Germany, where coal provides about 55 percent of total
land, and Spain) and from the newest OECD members
generation, and Poland, where it provides 95 percent) it
(including the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland),
will be difficult to reduce coal use substantially and, at
whose economic growth rates exceed the OECD average
the same time, carry out plans to dismantle nuclear
through the projection period.
power programs [14]. As a result, the IEO2008 reference
Natural gas is expected to be by far the fastest-growing case projects that coal-fired electricity generation in
fuel for electricity generation in OECD Europe, increas- OECD Europe will grow at the relatively slow average
ing at an average rate of 3.9 percent per year from 2005 to rate of 0.3 percent per year from 2005 to 2030.
2030. Use of liquids and other petroleum for generation
Renewable energy is OECD Europe’s second fastest-
is projected to decline steadily in the face of rising world
growing source for electricity generation in the reference
oil prices (Figure 59).
case. The use of renewables (primarily nonhydropower)
OECD Europe’s total nuclear capacity declines from for electricity generation is projected to grow by 1.3 per-
133 gigawatts in 2005 to 114 gigawatts in 2020 in the cent per year through 2030. Although most of the eco-
reference case, followed by a modest net increase to nomically feasible hydroelectric resources in Europe
118 gigawatts in 2030. Belgium and Germany, with already have been developed, the countries of OECD
Europe have installed substantial amounts of alternative
Figure 59. Net Electricity Generation in OECD renewable energy capacity—consisting mainly of wind
Europe by Fuel, 2005-2030 turbines—over the past several years. At present, 7 of
Trillion Kilowatthours the world’s 10 largest markets for wind-powered elec-
6 tricity generation are in Europe,16 and the 27-member
Nuclear
Renewables European Union accounted for 60 percent of the world’s
5 total installed wind capacity at the end of 2007 [15]. With
Natural Gas
many European countries setting new goals to increase
Coal
4 nonhydropower renewable electricity generation, the
Liquids
role of wind power in meeting OECD Europe’s electric-
3 ity demand is likely to grow in the future.
OECD Asia
2
Total electricity generation in OECD Asia is projected to
1
increase by 1.2 percent per year on average, from 1.7 tril-
lion kilowatthours in 2005 to 2.2 trillion kilowatthours in
2030. Japan accounts for the largest share of electricity
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 generation in the region today and continues to do so in
the mid-term projection, despite its having the slowest-
tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October growing electricity market in the region. Japan’s electric-
2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, ity generation increases at a 0.6-percent average annual
System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global rate in the IEO2008 reference case, as compared with
Electricity Module (2008).
16 According to the European Wind Energy Association, at the end of 2007 the 10 countries with the largest amounts of installed wind ca-
pacity were Germany, the United States, Spain, India, China, Denmark, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and Portugal.

projected rates of 1.4 percent per year in Australia/New In South Korea, coal and nuclear power currently pro-
Zealand and 2.3 percent per year in South Korea (Figure vide 41 percent and 38 percent of total electricity genera-
60). Japan’s electricity markets are well established, and tion, respectively. Natural-gas-fired generation grows
its aging population and relatively slow projected eco- quickly in the reference case projection, helping to diver-
nomic growth in the mid-term translate into slow sify the country’s fuel mix. As a result, South Korea’s
growth in demand for electric power. In contrast, both natural gas share of generation reaches 22 percent in
Australia/New Zealand and South Korea are expected 2030, up from 15 percent in 2005. Coal and nuclear
to have more robust income and population growth, power continue to provide most of the country’s electric-
leading to more rapid growth in demand for electricity. ity generation, however, with each providing between
36 and 37 percent of total electricity in 2030.
The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely
among the three economies that make up the OECD Non-OECD Economies
Asia region. In Japan, natural gas, coal, and nuclear
power make up the bulk of the current electric power Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
mix, with natural gas and nuclear accounting for about Total electricity generation in non-OECD Europe and
53 percent of total generation and coal another 30 per- Eurasia grows at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year
cent. The remaining portion is split between renewables in the IEO2008 reference case, from 1.5 trillion kilowatt-
and petroleum-based liquids. In 2030, Japan is projected hours in 2005 to 2.1 trillion kilowatthours in 2015 and 2.8
to rely on natural gas, nuclear power, and coal for nearly trillion kilowatthours in 2030. Russia, with the largest
90 percent of its electric power supply, with coal’s share economy in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, accounted
declining to 23 percent as both natural gas and nuclear for 60 percent of the region’s total generation in 2005 and
power displace its use. is expected to retain that share throughout the projection
(Figure 61).
Australia and New Zealand, with their rich coal
resources, rely on coal for nearly three-fourths of their As a whole, non-OECD Europe and Eurasia has ample
combined electricity generation. The remainder is sup- resources of natural gas. Consequently, much of its
plied by natural gas and renewable energy sources— future electricity supply is expected to be provided
largely hydroelectricity. The Australia/New Zealand from natural-gas-fired power plants. Natural gas is
region uses negligible amounts of oil for electricity gen- the region’s fastest-growing source of electric power in
eration and no nuclear power, and that is not expected to the IEO2008 reference case, increasing by 3.5 percent
change over the projection period. Natural-gas-fired per year from 2005 to 2030. Coal-fired and nuclear
generation is expected to grow strongly in the region, at power plants also are important regional sources of
3.1 percent per year between 2005 and 2030, and that electricity generation, with projected annual increases
growth will reduce the coal share to 68 percent at the end averaging 2.7 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, over
of the projection. the same period. Renewable generation, largely from
Figure 60. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Asia, Figure 61. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD
2005-2030 Europe and Eurasia, 2005-2030
Trillion Kilowatthours Trillion Kilowatthours
2.5 3.0
South Korea
Other
Australia/New Zealand 2.5
2.0 Russia
Japan
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0 0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the
Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity Module Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity Module
(2008). (2008).

hydropower facilities, increases more slowly, at an aver- averaging 7.4 percent per year. The rate of GDP
age rate of 1.1 percent per year, largely as a result of expansion is expected to moderate in the later years of
repairs and expansions at existing sites. Liquids play the projection, and the growth in electricity demand
only a minor role in the electric power markets of slows in concert with income growth. In 2030, total net
non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, and given the expecta- generation in non-OECD Asia is 12.9 trillion kilowatt-
tion that world oil prices will remain relatively high, the hours in the reference case.
role of liquids and other petroleum in the electricity sec-
tor remains small. Coal accounts for two-thirds of the electricity generation
in non-OECD Asia (Figure 62)—dominated by genera-
For Russia, the two fastest-growing energy sources for tion in China and India. Both countries already rely
electric power in the mid-term projection are natural gas heavily on coal to produce electric power. In 2005, coal’s
and nuclear power. Both are expected to grow by an share of generation was an estimated 77 percent in
average of 3.2 percent per year from 2005 to 2030. With China and 74 percent in India. Despite efforts to diver-
its extensive natural gas reserves, Russia currently gen- sify the fuel mix away from coal, it is likely that both
erates nearly 40 percent of its electricity from natural countries will continue to use coal as the main fuel for
gas, and the share increases to 46 percent in 2030. electricity generation. In the IEO2008 reference case, the
coal share of electricity generation declines to 65 percent
Russia’s government also has announced ambitious in 2030 in India but continues rising to 84 percent in
plans to increase the country’s nuclear power capacity in China.
order to lessen the reliance of its power sector on natural
gas and preserve what is becoming one of its most valu- In both China and India, meeting future demand for
able export commodities. Although only 3 gigawatts of electricity will present challenges. In China, a coal short-
new nuclear generating capacity has become opera- age and price spike that began in fall 2007 and continued
tional in Russia since 1991, there are plans in place to into 2008 caused 6 gigawatts of coal-fired generating
raise the nuclear share of total generation from about 15 capacity to be taken out of service in southern China
percent currently to 25 percent by 2030 [16]. [19]. An additional 70 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity
was idled in February 2008, when severe winter weather
In 2007, Russia announced its intention to construct 26 disrupted coal deliveries from China’s northern mines
new nuclear power facilities [17]. The government also to coastal demand centers, removing a substantial
is in the midst of liberalizing its electricity markets, with amount of the country’s 440 gigawatts of capacity from
complete price liberalization to be phased in by 2011 service. India also faces supply issues. Coal inventories
[18]. Russia believes that it must attract private invest- at the country’s utilities have been so low in 2008 that the
ment in the electric power sector, which could be facili- government has ordered a two-thirds increase in coal
tated by privatization of its generating business. In the imports to assure adequate power supply. Moreover,
short run, however, privatization may slow nuclear the coal supply problems in China and India have been
expansion plans, given the high capital costs associated
with nuclear power plant construction. Figure 62. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD
The IEO2008 reference case takes a more conservative Asia by Fuel, 2005-2030
Trillion Kilowatthours
view of the rate at which new nuclear power plants will 10
Coal
come on line in Russia, and the outlook includes some Nuclear
delay in meeting the current construction schedule. A Natural Gas
8 Renewables
net total of 4 gigawatts of nuclear generating capacity is
Liquids
added to Russia’s existing 23 gigawatts by 2015 and
another 14 gigawatts by 2030. 6
Non-OECD Asia
4
Non-OECD Asia—led by China and India—has the fast-
est projected growth in electric power generation world-
wide, averaging 4.9 percent per year from 2005 to 2030 in 2
the reference case. The nations of non-OECD Asia are
expected to see continued robust economic growth, with
0
corresponding increases in demand for electricity in the 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
building sector, as well as for industrial sector uses.
Total electricity generation in non-OECD Asia doubles tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October
over the first decade of the projection, from 3.9 trillion 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA,
kilowatthours in 2005 to 7.8 trillion kilowatthours in System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global
2015, with the region expected to see income growth Electricity Module (2008).

exacerbated by coal production problems in Australia lower Subansiri facility under construction in Arunachal
and South Africa, cutting available imports [20]. Pradesh is expected to be completed by 2012 [24]. India’s
federal government is attempting to incentivize the
Throughout non-OECD Asia, consumption of liquids development of hydropower across the nation. Legisla-
and other petroleum for electricity generation is pro- tion has been proposed to allow private hydroelectric
jected to decline, as relatively high world oil prices make power developers to be eligible over a 5-year period for
other fuels more attractive economically. Although the a tariff that would guarantee a fixed return on invest-
liquids share of electricity generation in non-OECD Asia ment, as well as allowing generators to improve their
is projected to fall from 4 percent in 2005 to less than 1 returns by selling up to 40 percent of their electricity on
percent in 2030, some oil-fired generation is expected to the spot market.
continue to be needed. Many rural areas currently do
not have access to transmission lines, and until transmis- China also has a number of large-scale hydroelectric
sion infrastructure can be put in place, noncommercial projects under construction, including the 18,200-
energy sources are expected to be replaced with electric- megawatt Three Gorges Dam project slated for comple-
ity from diesel-fired generators. tion at the end of 2008. The China Yangtze River Three
Gorges Project Development Corporation already has
Non-OECD Asia leads the world in installing new announced it plans to increase its total installed capacity
nuclear capacity in the IEO2008 reference case, account- to 22,400 megawatts. In addition, work continues on the
ing for 55 percent of the projected net increment in 12,600-megawatt Xiluodu project on the Jisha River
nuclear capacity worldwide. China is projected to add (scheduled for completion in 2020 as part of a 14-facility
45 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2030, India 17 giga- hydropower development plan) and the country’s
watts, and the other countries of non-OECD Asia a com- third-largest hydroelectric facility, the 6,300 megawatt
bined 6 gigawatts. Strong growth of nuclear capacity in Longtan project on the Hongshui River [25]. China also
China and India will have only a modest impact on fuel has the world’s tallest dam (at nearly 985 feet) currently
diversification in their electric power sectors, however, under construction, as part of the 3,600-megawatt
with thermal generation continuing to dominate in both Jinping I project on the Yalong River, which is scheduled
countries. In China, the nuclear share of total electricity for completion in 2014 as part of a plan by the Ertan
generation is projected to rise from 2 percent in 2005 to Hydropower Development Company to construct 21
5 percent in 2030, and in India it is projected to rise from facilities with 34,620 megawatts of hydroelectric capac-
2 percent to 8 percent. Several other countries in the ity on the Yalong [26]. The China Power Investment Cor-
region are also expected to begin nuclear power pro- poration began construction on the first of a proposed
grams. In the reference case, Vietnam, Indonesia, and 13-dam hydroelectric power system on the Yellow River
Pakistan are projected to have some nuclear power in 2007, with an ultimate total installed capacity of 8,000
capacity installed by 2030. megawatts. The first part of the system, the 360-mega-
watt Banduo project, is scheduled to become operational
Although electricity generation from renewable energy
by 2011 [27].
sources in non-OECD Asia is projected to grow at an
average annual rate of 2.4 percent, the renewable share Although hydroelectric projects dominate the renew-
of total generation declines—from 16 percent in 2005 to 9 able energy mix in non-OECD Asia, there are also plans
percent in 2030—as the shares of fossil fuels and nuclear to increase the use of nonhydroelectric renewable
power increase more rapidly. Mid- to large-scale hydro- energy sources, especially wind. In China, for example,
electric facilities provide much of the incremental the National Development and Reform Commission has
growth in non-OECD Asia’s renewable energy con- announced its goal to install 10,000 megawatts of wind
sumption. Several countries have hydropower facilities power capacity by 2010 [28]. The country is well on the
either planned or under construction: Vietnam is plan- way to meet the goal, having installed 3,400 megawatts
ning a number of hydropower projects on its Vu of new wind capacity in 2007 alone, which brought total
Gai-Thu Bon River, beginning with the 156-megawatt installed wind capacity to 6,000 megawatts [29]. India’s
Song Bung 4 project, which is scheduled for completion wind capacity has increased steadily over the years, to
by 2011 [21]. Malaysia expects to complete the 2,400- 8,000 megawatts in 2007. Taiwan also added 100 mega-
megawatt Bakun Dam project by 2011, although the pro- watts of new wind capacity in 2007, bringing its total
ject has had a number of delays and setbacks in the past installed capacity to 282 megawatts.
[22].
Middle East
In India, Himachal Pradesh has plans to commercialize a
substantial portion of the state’s reported 21,000 mega- Electric power generation in the Middle East region is
watts of hydroelectric power potential, adding 5,744 projected to grow by 2.6 percent per year, from 0.6 tril-
megawatts of hydroelectric capacity before 2015 to the lion kilowatthours in 2005 to 1.1 trillion kilowatthours in
existing 6,300 megawatts [23]. Also, the 2,000-megawatt 2030. The region’s young and fast-growing population

and a strong rise in projected national income are generation needs in 2005, and petroleum liquids are pro-
expected to result in a rapid increase in demand for elec- jected to continue providing 29 percent of the total in
tric power. In Iran, for instance, electricity demand has 2030. The rich petroleum resources in the Middle East
been increasing by about 7 percent annually in recent are expected to allow nations of the region to continue
years, and the demand for energy to fuel the increase in using oil for electricity generation, even as high world
electric power generation has pressured the country’s oil prices result in the displacement of oil in other
supply infrastructure. At the beginning of 2008, unusu- regions. Oil-fired generation in the Middle East is pro-
ally cold winter weather increased the demand for natu- jected to increase by an average of 1.6 percent per year
ral gas, both for power generation and for residential from 2005 to 2030.
and commercial uses [30]. The sharp increase in natural
gas demand has, since 2006, resulted in large natural gas Other energy sources make only minor contributions to
shortages at Iran’s power plants during the winter, and the Middle East region’s electricity supply. Israel is the
many have switched to burning fuel oil and diesel to only country in the region that uses significant amounts
meet the power demand. of coal to generate electric power [31], and Iran is the
only one projected to add nuclear capacity, with the
Despite short-term supply issues in some Middle East- completion of its Bushehr 1 reactor expected by 2015.
ern countries, natural gas is expected to remain the Finally, because there is little incentive for countries in
region’s largest source of energy for electricity genera- the Middle East to increase their use of renewable
tion throughout the projection (Figure 63). In 2005, natu- energy sources, renewables are projected to account for
ral-gas-fired generation accounted for 56 percent of the a modest 3 percent of the region’s total electricity gener-
Middle East region’s total power supply. In 2030, the ation throughout the 2005 to 2030 period.
natural gas share is projected to be 65 percent, as the
Africa
petroleum share of generation falls over the projection
period. Petroleum is a valuable export commodity for Demand for electricity in Africa grows at an average
many nations of the Middle East, and there is increasing annual rate of 3.1 percent in the IEO2008 reference case.
interest in the use of domestic natural gas for electricity Thermal generation accounted for most of the region’s
generation in order to make more oil assets available for total electricity supply in 2005 and is expected to be in
export. the same position through 2030. Coal-fired power
plants, which were the region’s largest source of electric-
The Middle East is the only region in the world where ity in 2005, accounting for 47 percent of total generation,
petroleum liquids are expected to continue accounting are projected to provide a 32-percent share in 2030, as
for a sizable portion of the fuel mix for electricity gen- natural-gas-fired generation expands strongly from 22
eration. The Middle East region as a whole relied percent of the total in 2005 to 50 percent in 2030 (Figure
on oil-fired capacity to meet 36 percent of its total 64).
Figure 63. Net Electricity Generation in the Figure 64. Net Electricity Generation in Africa
Middle East by Fuel, 2005-2030 by Fuel, 2005-2030
Trillion Kilowatthours Trillion Kilowatthours
0.8 0.8
Natural Gas Natural Gas
Liquids Liquids
Coal Coal
0.6 Renewables 0.6 Renewables
Nuclear Nuclear
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA,
System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global
Electricity Module (2008). Electricity Module (2008).

At present, South Africa’s two nuclear reactors are trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to 1.3 trillion kilowatt-
the only ones operating in the region, accounting for hours in 2015 and 1.7 trillion kilowatthours in 2030.
about 2 percent of Africa’s total electricity generation. The nations of Central and South America are expected
Reports suggest that construction of a new Pebble Bed to experience strong economic growth through 2030,
Modular Reactor may begin in South Africa in 2009, increasing the demand for electrification. The extent
with an anticipated completion date of 2013; however, to which electricity consumption will be allowed to
the project has had various setbacks since it was origi- expand in the future depends on investment in the
nally initiated in 1993, and it is uncertain whether the power sector and improvements in natural gas supply,
schedule will be met [32]. In addition, Egypt’s govern- including both pipeline and LNG supplies.
ment has announced plans to add a nuclear power pro-
ject, with first tenders offered in early 2008 [33]. In the The electricity markets of some of the larger regional
reference case, 1,000 megawatts of new nuclear capacity economies have become strained in recent years. With
(net) is projected to become operational in Africa over economic growth exceeding historical trends in Brazil
the 2005 to 2030 period, and the nuclear share of the and Argentina, among others, demand for electricity has
region’s total generation remains at 2 percent through grown sharply. For example, in Brazil, Central and
the end of the period. South America’s largest economy, GDP has been
increasing on average by 4.3 percent per year since 2004,
South Africa is Africa’s largest electricity generator, pro- and at the same time electricity demand has risen by an
ducing nearly 43 percent of the region’s total electric annual average of 5.0 percent [37]. The robust increase in
power in 2005. The country has been an important economic expansion has fueled strong demand for elec-
regional supplier, exporting electricity to neighbors, tricity in the region, testing the limits of the infrastruc-
including Zimbabwe and Swaziland [34]. Electricity ture. Brazil has had a difficult time securing natural gas
demand in South Africa has increased strongly in recent supplies. Bolivia has suspended supplies to a 400-
years, and the state-owned public utility Eskom has megawatt power plant in Cuiaba, and supplies from
been unable to expand installed capacity to keep up with Argentina have been suspended as a result of Argen-
increasing domestic demand [35]. As a result, South tina’s own natural gas production problems [38].
Africa experienced a number of power cuts in 2008 that
even resulted in the closure of some mining operations, Brazil has made moves to relieve pressures on its elec-
because companies could not guarantee the safety of tricity markets with plans to import LNG to reduce reli-
workers without a secure power supply. Eskom has ance on neighboring countries for natural gas supplies
plans to increase capacity by adding 40,000 megawatts and to increase hydroelectric generating capacity [39].
of new installed electric power capacity by 2025, but Plans to increase Brazil’s hydroelectric power genera-
short-term supply problems are likely to continue to tion include two plants on the Rio Madeira in Rondonia:
affect the country and other parts of southern Africa for the 3,150-megawatt Santo Antonio and the 3,326-mega-
the foreseeable future. watt Jirau hydroelectric facilities. The two plants, with
completion dates scheduled for the 2012 to 2015 period,
Generation from hydroelectric resources and other mar- are expected to help Brazil meet electricity demand in
keted renewable energy sources is expected to grow the mid-term [40]. In the IEO2008 reference case, renew-
slowly in Africa. As they have in the past, nonmarketed able electricity supply grows by 2.8 percent per year
renewables are expected to continue providing energy from 2005 to 2030, led by hydroelectric generation as
to Africa’s rural areas; however, it is often difficult for well as a modest increase in generation from other
African nations to find funding or international support renewable energy sources; however, with natural-gas-
for larger commercial projects. Still, plans for several fired generation expanding more rapidly, the renewable
hydroelectric projects in the region have been advanced share of total generation falls from 86 percent in 2005 to
recently, and they may help boost supplies of marketed 77 percent in 2030 (Figure 65). Natural-gas-fired genera-
renewable energy in the mid-term. Several (although tion is projected to grow by 7.3 percent per year in
not all) of the announced projects are expected to be Brazil, with the expectation that infrastructure will be
completed by 2030, allowing the region’s consumption improved and supplies from both pipeline and LNG
of marketed renewable energy to grow by 2.0 percent imports secured in the mid-term. The natural gas share
per year from 2005 to 2030. Several small- to-mid-sized of Brazil’s total generation increases from 7 percent in
hydroelectric facilities are planned for the region, 2005 to 17 percent in 2030.
including a 60-megawatt power station on Tanzania’s
Kagera River, with construction scheduled to begin in Until recently, Argentina was a major regional supplier
2009 after financing has been secured [36]. of natural gas. In 2003, the government instituted price
controls on natural gas to alleviate the impacts of an
economic downturn. An unintended result of the price
Electricity generation in Central and South America caps was a dramatic downturn in investment in new
increases steadily in the IEO2008 reference case, from 0.9 natural gas projects. Although the Argentine economy
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(March 5, 2008), p. 7.

Chapter 6
Transportation Sector Energy Consumption
In the IEO2008 reference case, transportation energy use in the non-OECD countries
increases by an average of 3.0 percent per year from 2005 to 2030, as compared with
an average of 0.7 percent per year for the OECD countries.
Over the next 25 years, world demand for liquids fuels markets for their products. Understanding the reasons
and other petroleum is expected to increase more rap- behind the demand for mobility is important for evalu-
idly in the transportation sector than in any other end- ating future transportation fuel consumption and poli-
use sector. In the IEO2008 reference case, the transporta- cies, which may alter historical trends in transportation
tion share of total liquids consumption increases from 52 energy use.
percent in 2005 to 58 percent in 2030. Much of the growth
in transportation energy use is projected for the non- Because access (rather than mobility per se) is the prime
OECD nations, where many rapidly expanding econo- consideration for assessing demand growth in the trans-
mies are expected to see strong growth in energy con- portation sector, factors that have nothing to do with
sumption as transportation systems are modernized and transportation equipment can have a profound effect on
rising standards of living increase the demand for per- the amount of energy consumed. For example, advances
sonal motor vehicle ownership. Non-OECD transporta- in communication technologies have made it possible
tion energy use increases by an average of 3.0 percent for consumers to have unprecedented levels of access to
per year from 2005 to 2030, as compared with an average financial services without traveling to a financial institu-
of 0.7 percent per year for transportation energy con- tion. Similarly, high-speed internet communication has
sumption in the OECD countries, where transportation increased the productivity of telecommuters, reducing
systems are generally well established (Table 11). traffic congestion, air pollution, and transportation
energy demand.
In the transportation sector, energy use provides mobil-
ity for people and goods. For people, mobility provides The difference between mobility and access is particu-
access to employment opportunities, friends and family, larly important for the analysis of transportation sys-
grocery and clothing stores, entertainment and leisure tems in today’s rapidly developing economies. The
activities, and medical and financial services, to name a levels and types of mobility and transportation fuel con-
few. For businesses, mobility provides access to the sumption required in the future will depend on infra-
means of production (raw materials, human resources, structure decisions evolving today. How far will people
and the output of other businesses), as well as access to live from their places of employment and from friends
Table 11. World Energy Consumption for Transportation by Country Grouping, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Average Annual
Percent Change,
Region 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58.5 60.5 63.8 65.6 67.0 68.8 0.7
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.2 33.7 35.6 36.8 37.9 39.4 0.8
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.7 19.1 19.8 20.1 20.2 20.3 0.3
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 7.8 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.1 0.7
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.7 39.9 46.7 53.1 59.4 66.6 3.0
Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.8 6.6 7.2 7.8 8.5 2.3
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.0 17.3 21.9 26.2 30.4 35.0 4.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 5.8 6.2 6.8 7.3 8.0 1.9
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.3 2.2
Central and South America . . . . 5.9 7.2 7.8 8.4 9.0 9.9 2.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90.2 100.4 110.5 118.7 126.5 135.4 1.6
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
web site www. eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008).

and family? Will rapid urbanization in developing Asia a modest impact on total liquids supply through 2030. In
follow the U.S. pattern of roads surrounding central the IEO2008 reference case, alternative fuels account for
cities, or will smaller cities, where people live and work, only 9 percent of total world liquids use in 2030, despite
be increasingly more important? Such questions, which an average annual increase of 5.6 percent per year, from
remain to be answered, indicate that projections of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2005 to 9.7 million barrels
future transportation energy use in today’s developing per day in 2030.
regions are far less certain than the projections for
regions with mature transportation systems. Projected world oil prices in the IEO2008 reference case
are 16 percent higher in 2015 and nearly 20 percent
The IEO2008 reference case assumes that, as personal higher in 2030 than those projected in IEO2007. As a
income grows in the developing non-OECD nations, result, consumers in end-use sectors other than trans-
demand for personal motor vehicles will also grow but portation (notably, the electric power and industrial sec-
that major urban areas will address the accompanying tors) are expected to switch to other fuels where
congestion and strains on infrastructure with a variety possible. In the transportation sector, however, liquid
of solutions, including development of mass transit (bus fuels remain the most widely used energy source, and
and/or rail), urban planning to reduce road congestion, the impact of high prices on demand for liquid fuels is
and general improvements of the transportation net- comparatively modest. World demand for liquid fuels
work that will facilitate travel. In non-OECD Asia, for in the transportation sector increases by 1.6 percent per
example, the reference case projects that energy use for year on average from 2005 to 2030—only 0.1 percentage
personal motor vehicles (light-duty cars and trucks, as point below the average increase in the IEO2007 refer-
well as two- and three-wheel vehicles) will increase by ence case.
4.0 percent per year from 2005 to 2030, while energy use
for passenger rail increases nearly as quickly, by 3.7 per- Growing demand for transportation services in the
cent per year. non-OECD countries is the most important factor affect-
ing the projections for world liquids consumption. In
In the projections, the transportation sector continues to 2005, the OECD nations consumed 85 percent more
rely heavily on liquids to meet demand for travel. Total transportation fuel than the non-OECD nations. The dis-
world liquids consumption increased by 35 percent crepancy narrows substantially over the projection
from 2005 to 2030, and the transportation sector period, however, and in 2030 total non-OECD energy
accounts for three-fourths of the increase. Given the consumption for transportation is less than 5 percent
world oil price environment projected in the IEO2008 below the OECD total (Figure 67). For the OECD coun-
reference case, economic incentives will prompt con- tries, the transportation share of total energy consump-
sumers to find substitutes for liquids. In the OECD tion increases from 58 percent in 2005 to 63 percent in
nations, liquids consumption in other sectors declines as 2030. For the non-OECD countries, the transportation
electricity generation from liquid fuels is reduced. share of total energy consumption increases from 43 per-
Transportation use accounts for virtually all the increase cent in 2005 to 54 percent in 2030.
in liquids consumption in the OECD nations and 67 per-
cent of the increase in the non-OECD nations. Liquids Figure 66. OECD and Non-OECD Transportation
used for feedstocks in the chemical industry account for Sector Liquids Consumption, 2005-2030
most of the rest. The non-OECD nations are expected to Quadrillion Btu
80
account for four-fifths of the global increase in transpor-
OECD Non-OECD
tation energy use (Figure 66).
Currently, the term “liquids” is largely synonymous 60
with oil products. Liquids produced from renewable
sources and from nonpetroleum fossil fuels are receiv-
ing a great deal of attention worldwide, given today’s 40
high oil prices and concerns over the political stability of
some oil supply regions. The United States, for instance,
has passed legislation to increase the amount of ethanol 20
in the U.S. liquids mix and has increased funding for
research on cellulosic biofuels. In OECD Europe, there
has been a major push to increase the use of alternative 0
fuels for transportation, including natural gas; however, 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
barring any widespread increase in the penetration of Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-
new supply technologies, whether driven by policy tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October
changes or other factors, the world’s use of alternative 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World
fuels in the transportation sector is expected to have only Energy Projections Plus (2008).

High economic growth rates for the non-OECD nations Economic growth (as measured by GDP) is associated
as a whole in the IEO2008 reference case are the most with growth in fuel consumption to move both freight
important reason for the projected strong growth in and people in the OECD and non-OECD countries. In
their demand for transportation (personal and freight). the more service-oriented OECD economies, the link
In addition, the governments of many emerging coun- between economic growth and transportation energy
tries, like China and India, have been reluctant to relax use is weaker than in the developing non-OECD econo-
price controls for motor vehicle fuels, for fear that such a mies. From 2005 to 2030, the rate of increase in total
move might raise inflation rates and slow their progress OECD transportation energy consumption is 28 percent
toward greater economic prosperity [1]. As a result, con- of the projected GDP growth rate, whereas the rate of
sumers in the non-OECD countries are not likely to increase in total non-OECD transportation energy con-
reduce their consumption of motor fuels. Further, most sumption is about 58 percent of the GDP growth rate for
of the world’s largest net oil exporters are among the the those countries (Figure 68).
non-OECD nations, and they have the capacity to sup-
ply their own populations with transportation fuels at In the non-OECD nations, sustained high rates of eco-
substantially lower prices than market-based economics nomic growth probably would be impossible without
would allow, funded with revenues from the oil they rapid modernization of national transportation systems
export. to move raw materials and finished products. For much
of the developing world animal power still is a prime
The IEO2008 projection for growth in demand for liquid means of freight transport, and walking is a prime
fuels in the OECD nations is slightly lower than the cor- means of personal transport. As a result, particularly in
responding projection in IEO2007. There is evidence that rural developing regions, growth in transportation ser-
the sustained high world oil prices of the past several vices and energy use does not follow economic growth
years have begun to affect consumers in the OECD. but, rather, enables it. Products and services are not pro-
Recent legislation aimed at improving the efficiency of duced if they cannot reach consumers, and without
motor vehicles (such as the U.S. Government’s move to modern transportation systems economic growth may
raise motor vehicle efficiency standards) and consum- be severely limited.
ers’ choosing to drive less or purchase high-efficiency
vehicles are expected to continue dampening the rate of Freight transportation energy use includes fuels used by
demand growth in the future. In North America, for large trucks, freight trains, and both domestic and inter-
instance, transportation energy demand is expected to national marine vessels.17 Passenger transportation
increase by an annual average of 0.8 percent in the refer- energy use includes fuels used in light-duty vehicles,
ence case, substantially lower than the average of 1.3 buses, aircraft, and passenger trains. In 2005, about
percent per year in IEO2007. two-thirds of transportation energy use in the OECD
Figure 67. Change in World Liquids Consumption Figure 68. Average Annual Growth in OECD and
for Transportation, 2005 to 2030 Non-OECD Gross Domestic Product and
Quadrillion Btu Transportation Sector Delivered Energy
80
OECD Non-OECD World Use, 2005-2030
Gross Domestic
60 Product
All
40 Transportation
OECD
Non-OECD
Freight
20 Transportation
Passenger
0 Transportation
Transportation All Sectors
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October Percent per Year
2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, World Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-
Energy Projections Plus (2008). tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October
2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World
Energy Projections Plus (2008).
17 In the IEO2008 projections, fuel use in dedicated freight aircraft is included with fuel use in passenger aircraft.

countries was for passenger travel; that share declines in U.S. transportation fuel use is less than one-third the
slightly from 2005 to 2030. For the non-OECD nations, corresponding rate for Mexico). Transportation energy
passenger travel accounted for less than one-half of total demand in the United States grow from 27.9 quadrillion
transportation energy use in 2005, and the share remains Btu in 2005 to 30.4 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 33.0 qua-
below 50 percent through 2030. Although energy con- drillion Btu in 2030, accounting for all the increase in
sumption for passenger transportation grows more than U.S. liquids consumption over the period.
3 times faster in the non-OECD than in the OECD coun-
tries, passenger-related energy use in the developing Transportation energy use, which accounted for 67 per-
world remains far below levels in the OECD on a per cent of total U.S. liquid fuels demand in 2005, increases
capita basis. to 73 percent of the total in 2030. Improvements in the
efficiency of vehicles, aircraft, and ships in the projection
OECD Countries period are more than offset by growth in travel. The
Energy Independence and Security Act 2007 (EISA2007),
Transportation infrastructure in the OECD countries enacted by the U.S. Government in December 2007,
generally is well established. Roads and highways con- requires new light-duty vehicles (including both cars
nect most population centers, and motorization levels and light trucks) to reach an average fuel economy of 35
(vehicles per 1,000 people), which already are fairly miles per gallon by 2020. EISA2007 significantly
high, probably will reach saturation over the course of improves the fuel economy of the stock of more heavily
the projection period (Figure 69). As the OECD econo- used light-duty vehicles. In the reference case, the aver-
mies have become more service-oriented, the link age in-use fuel economy for the stock of light-duty vehi-
between income and the transportation of goods has cles in 2030 increases to 28.0 miles per gallon, 41 percent
weakened. The established transportation sectors and above the 2005 level, resulting in a shift in the mix of
relatively slow rates of GDP growth and population transportation vehicle fuels [2].
growth among the OECD economies lead to the expecta-
tion that transportation energy demand will increase Another impact of EISA2007 on projected energy use in
only modestly from 2005 to 2030. It is projected to grow the U.S. transportation sector is a large increase in
at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent in the IEO2008 biofuel consumption. Total U.S. biofuel consumption
reference case, from 58.5 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 63.8 rises from 0.3 quadrillion Btu (3.7 billion gallons) in 2005
quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 68.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030. to 2.8 quadrillion Btu (29.7 billion gallons) in 2030, when
it represents about 11.3 percent of total U.S. motor vehi-
North America accounts for about one-half of the cle fuel on a Btu basis. U.S. ethanol use grows from 4.0
increase in OECD consumption of liquids and other billion gallons in 2005 to 24.3 billion gallons in 2030
petroleum for transportation in the reference case (more than 16 percent of total gasoline consumption by
(Figure 70), and the United States accounts for about 70 volume). Biodiesel use reaches 1.3 billion gallons in 2030
percent of that increase (even though the rate of increase
Figure 70. Change in Liquids Consumption for

Figure 69. Motor Vehicle Ownership in OECD Transportation by OECD Region,
Countries, 2005, 2015, and 2030 2005 to 2030
Quadrillion Btu
8
United States
OECD Europe 6
2005
Japan 2015
2030 4
Canada
2
South Korea
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 0

Light-Duty Vehicles Owned per Thousand People North America Europe Asia
2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, World
Energy Projections Plus (2008). Energy Projections Plus (2008).

(about 1.6 percent of total diesel consumption by vol- increase in transportation fuel use is based on expected
ume). Consumption of diesel liquids produced from growth in trade with the United States and overall
biomass grows to 4.2 billion gallons, or 4.9 percent of improvement in the country’s standard of living.
total diesel consumption by volume, in 2030.
In OECD Europe, slow population growth, high trans-
Canada’s current mix of transportation energy use is portation fuel costs, and environmental policies contrib-
similar to that in the United States (personal motor vehi- ute to slow growth in transportation energy use in the
cles are fueled largely by motor gasoline rather than die- IEO2008 reference case. OECD Europe’s population
sel or alternative fuels) and is expected to remain so in increases by 0.2 percent per year; the countries of OECD
the IEO2008 reference case. The markets of the two Europe already have mature transportation systems;
countries are largely interconnected, not only because of and improvements in energy efficiency over the course
their proximity but also because of similar geography of the projection dampen growth in passenger transpor-
and demographics. As in the United States, the fastest tation energy use. Despite the slow growth projected for
growth in Canada’s transportation fuel use is expected OECD Europe’s population, national economic growth
to be in the form of jet fuel and distillate fuel. For both continues to expand, as does energy use for freight
countries, growth in total demand for transportation transportation. In total, however, OECD Europe’s trans-
fuels averages less than 1.0 percent per year in the refer- portation energy consumption increases by only 0.3 per-
ence case from 2005 to 2030 [3]. cent per year on average, from 18.7 quadrillion Btu in
2005 to 19.8 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 20.3 quadrillion
Also similar to developments in the U.S. transportation Btu in 2030 (Figure 71). The transportation share of total
sector is Canada’s growing interest in increasing the role energy use in OECD Europe remains essentially stable at
of biofuels in its domestic liquids supply. In 2006, Can- 22 percent through 2030.
ada’s federal government announced its intention to
achieve a 5-percent share of renewable fuels blended OECD Asia, like OECD Europe, generally has well-
into the national motor gasoline supply by 2010 and a established transportation infrastructures; and with
2-percent share of renewable fuels blended into diesel population in the region as a whole projected to contract
supplies by 2012 [4]. In addition, several provinces have (averaging -0.1 percent per year from 2005 to 2030),
enacted legislation or set goals to exceed the national fairly slow growth in transportation energy demand is
goals. expected. Total demand for transportation fuels in
OECD Asia increases by 0.7 percent per year, with the
In November 2004, Ontario enacted the Regulation largest increases in South Korea, Australia, and New
535/05, “Renewable Fuel Standard,” which required an Zealand. For OECD Asia as a whole, energy use for pas-
average 5-percent ethanol blend share in the motor gaso- senger transportation grows by about 0.2 percent per
line sold in the province, to be achieved by January 1, year from 2005 to 2030.
2007 [5]. British Columbia has passed Bill 16 “The 2008
Greenhouse Gas Reduction (Renewable and Low Car- Figure 71. Average Annual Change in Gross
bon Fuel Requirements) Act,” which will require a Domestic Product, Population, and
5-percent share of biodiesel blend in the diesel supply by Energy Consumption for Transportation
2010 [6]. In 2005, Saskatchewan set a goal to achieve a by OECD Region, 2005 to 2030
7.5-percent ethanol share of motor gasoline 2005 [7]. Percent per Year
Manitoba has passed legislation requiring that, as of Jan- Transportation Energy Use:
3
uary 1, 2008, fuel suppliers “replace at least 8.5 percent GDP Population Passenger Freight
of their motor gasoline available for sale with ethanol”
[8]. Finally, Quebec has set a goal to achieve a 5-percent 2
share of ethanol blend in its gasoline supply by 2012,
stipulating in addition that the target be met by cellu-
losic ethanol [9]. It is difficult to assess how effective 1
these laws and initiatives may be in increasing domestic
supplies of biofuels, but they demonstrate the consider-
able interest that biofuels have garnered in recent years, 0
both as a result of high world oil prices and for environ-
mental reasons.
-1
In Mexico, strong GDP growth (3.9 percent per year) is North America Europe Asia
projected to increase energy consumption in the trans- Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-
portation sector at an average rate of 2.4 percent per tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October
year, from 1.9 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 2.5 quadrillion 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World
Btu in 2015 and 3.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The projected Energy Projections Plus (2008).

In Japan, transportation energy use declines by 0.1 per- transportation is the key factor behind the projected
cent per year on average, as the population declines by a increase in transportation fuel demand for Austra-
total of 7.5 percent (10 million people) from 2005 to 2030. lia/New Zealand in the IEO2008 reference case, rising
As a result, energy use in the country’s passenger trans- from 0.4 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 0.7 quadrillion Btu in
portation sector in 2030 is projected to be 9 percent 2030, at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent. Air travel
below the 2005 level, although with GDP growth aver- is also expected to count for a substantial part of the
aging 1.1 percent per year, its energy use for freight growth in Australia/New Zealand’s transportation fuel
transportation increases on average by 0.4 percent per demand, as income growth raises standards of living
year. and the demand for business and vacation travel. Pas-
senger air travel in Australia/New Zealand nearly dou-
South Korea is the fastest-growing economy in the bles in the reference case, from 0.2 quadrillion Btu in
region, and its transportation energy use is projected to 2005 to 0.4 quadrillion Btu in 2030.
grow by 1.9 percent per year in the IEO2008 reference
case. The country has the region’s strongest projected Non-OECD Countries
GDP growth, averaging 3.5 percent per year from 2005
to 2030, and its transportation infrastructure is still rela- The projected average growth rate of transportation
tively young compared with those in Japan and Austra- energy use in the non-OECD countries from 2005 to
lia/New Zealand. South Korea accounts for about 2030, at 3.0 percent per year, is more than quadruple the
one-fourth of OECD Asia’s total population, and its projected rate for OECD countries, and their use of liq-
share of OECD Asia’s transportation energy use is pro- uids in the transportation sector is expected to double
jected to increase from 24 percent in 2005 to 32 percent in over the period. Transportation energy consumption for
2030. Energy use for freight transportation in South both passenger and freight transportation in non-OECD
Korea is projected to increase by an average of 2.5 per- Asia is projected to increase at a much greater rate than
cent per year, and its share of OECD Asia’s total energy in the other non-OECD countries (Figure 72). Combined,
use for freight movement increases from 31 percent in China, India, and other developing countries in Asia
2005 to 40 percent in 2030, reflecting an increase in its (non-OECD Asia) are expected to sustain high rates of
share of OECD Asia’s total GDP from 15 percent to 22 economic growth over the forecast, accounting for 54
percent. percent of the increase in world GDP between 2005 and
2030. In 2030 they represent 45 percent of the world
In Australia/New Zealand, transportation energy use is economy, up from 29 percent in 2005. Over the same
projected to grow by average of 1.1 percent per year, period, non-OECD Asia’s share of world transportation
based on modest population growth and average annual liquids consumption increases from 12.6 percent to 34.5
GDP growth of 3.0 percent. As in South Korea, freight percent (Figure 73).
Figure 72. Average Annual Change in Gross Figure 73. Change in Liquids Consumption for
Domestic Product, Population, and Transportation by Non-OECD Region,
Energy Consumption for Transportation 2005 to 2030
by Non-OECD Region, 2005 to 2030 Quadrillion Btu
25
Percent per Year
Transportation Energy Use:
GDP Population Passenger Freight 20
6
15
4
10
2
5
0
0
-2 Europe/ Asia Middle Africa Central/
Europe/ Asia Middle Africa Central/ Eurasia East South America
Eurasia East South America Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis- tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October
tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, World
2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008).
Energy Projections Plus (2008).

The high rate of economic growth projected for the (the $3,116 Nano) and agreed to purchase Land Rover
non-OECD countries will be realized only if their trans- and Jaguar from U.S. Ford Motor Company [14]. India’s
portation infrastructures keep pace with economic government has estimated that the country’s production
growth. China has been, and is projected to continue to of passenger cars—largely supported by anticipated
be, the fastest growing economy among non-OECD robust economic growth—will increase from 1.7 million
countries. From 2005 to 2030, China’s GDP is projected vehicles in 2007 to 3.0 million vehicles in 2015 [15].
to increase by an average of 6.4 percent per year, and its
use of liquid fuels for passenger and freight transporta- Small and relatively inexpensive vehicles are being pro-
tion increases by 5.0 and 5.5 percent, respectively. duced in China and India to meet the personal transpor-
Between 1995 and 2005, growth in the combined length tation needs of an expanding middle class. Motorization
of China’s highways averaged 5.3 percent per year [10]. in both countries more than triples over the projection
Over the same period, highway passenger travel (mea- period, although their motorization levels remain far
sured in passenger-miles) and highway freight travel below those in most OECD nations in 2030 (Figure 74).
(measured in ton-miles) increased at annual rates of 7.3 The personal transportation service provided by motor
and 6.4 percent, respectively. India, similarly, has been vehicles, along with an expanding road infrastructure,
expanding its road infrastructure to keep pace with eco- greatly increases the mobility of the labor force and
nomic growth. helps support continued high rates of economic growth.
Although the new vehicles are expected to achieve
The IEO2008 projections assume that the pace of infra- high levels of fuel efficiency per mile, the growing fleet
structure expansion will not significantly hinder eco- of automobiles will replace even more fuel-efficient
nomic growth in the rapidly expanding economies of motorcycles.
non-OECD Asia. They also assume that the type of infra-
structure developed largely will mirror the transporta- As an alternative to light-duty automobiles and trucks,
tion infrastructure of today’s developed economies. public transport may play an increasingly important
Given the increasing scale of needed infrastructure and role in China, India, and the other rapidly developing
the very different fuel price regimes in the economies of economies of non-OECD Asia. This is especially true for
non-OECD Asia, these assumptions are a source of con- large, densely populated urban areas, where traffic con-
siderable uncertainty in the projections. gestion will require a government response to ensure
that goods and people can be transported effectively.
Both China and India have become major vehicle manu- The IEO2008 reference case projection assumes robust
facturers. In 2006, China produced nearly 7.2 million growth in both personal motorization and public trans-
motor vehicles, the third-highest production level in the portation—namely, buses and light rail—for China and
world after Japan and the United States and more than India. In China, for instance, while transportation
one-tenth of the world’s total production [11]. In 2007, energy use by light-duty vehicles (including automo-
motor vehicle production in China grew by another 22 biles, light-duty trucks, and two- and three-wheel vehi-
percent, to 8.9 million vehicles [12]. Within the next sev- cles) increases by 5.4 percent per year from 2005 to 2030,
eral years, China’s production of motor vehicles may
reach 10 million vehicles. Domestic demand for motor Figure 74. Motor Vehicle Ownership in Non-OECD
vehicles has advanced strongly since the accession of Countries, 2005, 2015, and 2030
China into the World Trade Organization in December
2001, which has promoted increased economic activity. Russia
Between 2005 and 2006, for instance, personal vehicle
ownership increased by nearly 24 percent, making
China the world’s second-largest consumer of automo- China
2005
biles (the United States is the largest).
2015
India produces a much smaller number of motor vehi- 2030
India
cles than China does, but the number has grown sub-
stantially over the past several years. In 2000, India
produced 0.8 million motor vehicles; in 2007, production
Brazil
had increased to 2.3 million vehicles [13], and India had
become the world’s tenth-largest motor vehicle pro-
ducer and Asia’s fourth largest (after Japan, China, and 0 50 100 150 200 250
South Korea). India’s motor vehicle manufacturers Light-Duty Vehicles Owned per Thousand People
aspire to improve their penetration of the world’s auto- Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-
motive sector. In 2008, Tata Motors—India’s largest tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October
manufacturer of passenger and commercial vehicles— 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World
has launched the world’s cheapest mass-produced car Energy Projections Plus (2008).

energy consumption for passenger rail also grows [18]. Further, personal motor vehicle sales in many
strongly, by a projected 4.4 percent per year, and energy countries of the region have posted double-digit growth
use for passenger bus increases by 2.7 percent per year. rates in recent years, as the economies of oil-exporting
In India, transportation energy use increases by an aver- countries have prospered in the current high price envi-
age of 4.4 percent per year for light-duty vehicles, 2.9 ronment [19]. In the IEO2008 reference case, energy con-
percent per year for passenger rail, and 3.4 percent per sumption for transportation in the Middle East grows by
year for buses. an average of 1.9 percent per year from 2005 to 2030, to a
total of 8.0 quadrillion Btu in 2030.
In Russia, energy consumption for passenger transpor-
tation increases at an average rate of 0.6 percent per year Transportation energy use in Central and South Amer-
from 2005 to 2030 in the reference case, even as the Rus- ica is projected to increase by 2.0 percent per year from
sian population declines by an average of 0.6 percent per 2005 to 2030. Brazil, the region’s largest economy, is
year (for a total population reduction of 20 million). Rus- experiencing particularly strong growth in its transpor-
sia’s automobile market has been particularly strong in tation sector following its success in achieving economic
the past several years, with 1.5 million vehicles sold in stability, which has bolstered consumer confidence and
2005 and expectations by some analysts that sales may improved consumer access to credit, allowing vehicle
expand by 7.0 percent per year until 2010 [16]. Thus, pas- sales to increase strongly [20]. Total vehicle sales in
senger energy use per capita is projected to increase by Brazil (including light-duty vehicles, heavy-duty trucks,
an average of 1.2 percent per year. Strong economic and buses) rose by 28 percent in 2007, following a
growth, fueled by sustained high prices for Russia’s 12-percent increase in 2006. Indications are that robust
exports of oil and natural gas, increases the demand for domestic sales will continue [21]. In the IEO2008 refer-
personal motorization. ence case, energy use by light-duty vehicles in Brazil
increases by an average of 2.6 percent per year from 2005
The population in the rest of non-OECD Europe and to 2015, before slowing substantially to 1.6 percent per
Eurasia is expected to be virtually unchanged between year from 2015 to 2030.
2005 and 2030, and energy consumption for passenger
transportation per capita is projected to increase at a In 1975, the Brazilian government launched its National
yearly rate of 2.8 percent, compared with 4.8-percent Alcohol Program to increase the penetration of ethanol
annual growth in income per capita. Based on economic in the transportation fuel mix [22]. Subsequently, etha-
growth averaging 4.4 percent per year in non-OECD nol production in Brazil rose from 0.1 billion gallons in
Europe and Eurasia, energy use for freight transporta- 1975 to 2.5 billion gallons per year in the early 1980s; and
tion is projected to grow by an average of 3.2 percent per in 2005, ethanol accounted for about 40 percent of total
year, reflecting improvements in standards of living fuel consumption in the country’s passenger vehicles. Its
among countries that have continued to prosper since reliance on biofuels (and ethanol in particular) to fuel its
the fall of the Soviet Union. Rising standards of living transportation sector has focused attention on Brazil, as
fuel the demand for merchandise and appliances and other nations of the world have begun to increase the
the need to ship those goods to market. penetration of alternative fuels in the face of sustained
high world oil prices over recent years.
The Middle East has a relatively small population and is
not a major energy-consuming region but rather an With a sharp upswing in sales of flexible-fuel vehicles
exporter; however, rapid population growth in the (FFVs),18 coupled with ethanol prices that are currently
region is expected to result in increased demand for about one-half the price of gasoline, the ethanol share of
transportation. Transportation energy use has been Brazil’s transportation fuel market is poised to increase
expanding quickly in several key nations of the Middle even further [23]. FFV production in Brazil began in
East, at a rate greatly exceeding the world average. March 2003, when 49,000 vehicles were sold. By March
2007 sales of FFVs had risen to 3 million, and in 2008
From 2000 to 2005, transportation energy use increased more than 5 million have been sold [24]. FFVs now
by 4.2 percent per year in Saudi Arabia; by 6.8 percent account for more than 80 percent of new automobile
per year in Iran; by 7.0 percent per year in Kuwait; and sales in Brazil. The country also is intent on increasing
by an impressive 15.5 percent per year in Qatar. In com- biodiesel supplies. Beginning in January 2008, Brazilian
parison, the world average was 2.3 percent per year [17]. distributors are required to blend 2 percent biodiesel
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iran, among other Middle into their regular diesel supplies [25]. Further, national
Eastern nations, subsidize transportation fuels for their legislation requires an increase in the biodiesel share to 5
citizens, discouraging conservation or efficiency of use percent of the diesel mix by 2013.
18 Flexible-fuel vehicles can operate using 100 percent ethanol, 100 percent motor gasoline, or any combination of the two fuels.

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uar,” The New Zealand Harold (March 28, 2008), web
1. D.H. Straszheim, “Commentary: Why, In China,
site www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?
Gas Is $2.49 A Gallon,” Forbes Magazine (May 28,
c_id=3&objectid=10500549.
2008), web site www.forbes.com.
15. S. Chatterjee, “Honda Bullish on Indian Market,
2. Statement of Guy Caruso, Administrator, Energy
Ramps Up Production, Dealer Network,” Interna-
Information Administration, before the U.S. Senate
tional Business Times (February 26, 2008), web site
Committee on Energy and Natural Resources
http://in.ibtimes.com/articles/20080226/honda-
(March 4, 2008), pp. 4-5.
motor-jazz-civic-hybrid-accord_2.htm.
3. National Energy Board of Canada, Canada’s Energy
16. J. Reers, “The Russian Auto Landscape,” Automotive
Future: Reference Case and Scenarios to 2030, (Calgary,
Design and Production (May 2006), web site www.
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autofieldguide.com/columns/0506strat.html.
4. “Government Notices: Department of the Environ-
17. International Energy Agency Data Services, Energy
ment,” Canada Gazette, Vol. 140, No. 52 (December
Balances of Non-OECD Countries (2007), web site
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18. M. Markey, “Topic Report: Oil Consumption
Affairs, Ontario Growth Fund Round Two: Invitation
Growth in the Middle East” (December 17, 2007),
to Proponents (Guelph, Ontario, July 23, 2007), p. 2;
Apache Corporation, web site www.apachecorp.
and email correspondence from Ken Newel,
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National Energy Board Canada (April 4, 2008).
View_Article/?docdoc=662.
6. R. Speer, “BC Leads the Nation with New 5%
19. R. Kirk, “Explosive Oil Consumption Growth in the
Biodiesel Target,” Canadian Renewable Fuels Asso-
Top Oil Exporting States,” Energy Bulletin (July 25,
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marketwire.com.
18475.
7. Global Insight, Inc., “Canada: Ontario To Introduce
20. T. Rideg, “Brazil Auto Boom: Can Supply Keep
C$520 Mil. in Ethanol Subsidies Over 10 Years”
Pace?” Latin Business Chronicle, (August 13, 2007),
(June 17, 2005), web site www.globalinsight.com
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Chapter 7
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
In 2005, non-OECD emissions of carbon dioxide exceeded OECD emissions
by 7 percent. In 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries
are projected to exceed those from the OECD countries by 72 percent.
Carbon dioxide is the most abundant anthropogenic average annual increase in non-OECD emissions from
(human-caused) greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. 2005 to 2030 (2.5 percent) is five times the increase pro-
Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have jected for the OECD countries (0.5 percent). In 2030,
been rising at a rate of about 0.6 percent annually in non-OECD emissions, projected at 26.8 billion metric
recent years, and that growth rate is likely to increase. As tons, exceed the projection for OECD emissions by 72
a result, by the middle of the 21st century, carbon diox- percent. The IEO2008 reference case projections are, to
ide concentrations in the atmosphere could be double the extent possible, based on existing laws and policies.
their pre-industrialization level (see box on page 90). The projections for carbon dioxide emissions could
change significantly if existing laws and policies aimed
Because anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide at reducing the use of fossil fuels, and thus greenhouse
result primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels for gas emissions, changed.
energy, world energy use has emerged at the center of
the climate change debate. In the IEO2008 reference case, The relative contributions of different fossil fuels to total
world carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise energy-related carbon dioxide emissions have changed
from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 34.3 billion metric over time. In 1990, emissions from the combustion of
tons in 2015 and 42.3 billion metric tons in 2030.19 liquids and other petroleum made up an estimated 42
percent of the world total; in 2005 their share was 39 per-
From 2004 to 2005, total energy-related carbon dioxide cent; and in 2030 it is projected to be 35 percent (Figure
emissions from the non-OECD countries grew by 6.6 76). Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combus-
percent, while emissions from the OECD countries grew tion, which accounted for 19 percent of the total in 1990,
by less than 1 percent. Consequently, annual emissions increased to 20 percent of the 2005 total. That share is
from the non-OECD countries currently exceed total projected to stabilize at between 20 and 21 percent from
annual emissions from the OECD countries, and the dif- 2005 to 2030.
ference is growing (Figure 75). In addition, the projected
Figure 75. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Figure 76. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide
Emissions, 2005-2030 Emissions by Fuel Type, 1990-2030
Billion Metric Tons Billion Metric Tons
30 50
OECD Non-OECD 27 History Projections
25
22 40
20 Total
20
17 30
15 15 16
14 14 14
14
20
Coal
10
10 Liquids
Natural Gas
0 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
19 In keeping with current international practice, IEO2008 presents data on greenhouse gas emissions in billion metric tons carbon diox-
ide equivalent. The figures can be converted to carbon equivalent units by multiplying by 12/44.

What Will It Take To Stabilize Carbon Dioxide Concentrations?
Currently, world energy-related carbon dioxide emis- In pre-industrial times, the concentration of carbon
sions are increasing at a rate of about 2.1 percent per dioxide in the atmosphere was about 280 parts per
year. Carbon dioxide concentrations, on the other million (ppm). The atmospheric concentration of car-
hand, are rising by only about 0.6 percent per year (see bon dioxide at present is about 380 ppm, and according
figure below). There are two major reasons for the to the IEO2008 reference case projections, by 2030 it
difference: would be about 450 ppm.b If the growth of world car-
bon dioxide emissions continues unabated, the concen-
•First, the base from which growth in the atmo-
tration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere
spheric carbon dioxide concentration is calculated
could reach 560 ppm by the middle of the 21st century.
is much larger than the base from which increases
in annual emissions are calculated. Before the Many possible actions beyond those currently pro-
industrial revolution, the weight of carbon dioxide jected in the business-as-usual baseline would be
in the atmosphere was about 2,163 billion metric needed to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of
tons,a and in the early stages of industrialization the carbon dioxide at a level below 560 ppm (still double
concentration increased slowly—at a rate of about the pre-industrial level). There is no unique path for
0.04 percent per year. achieving any stabilization goal. In addition, a number
•Second, the Earth’s oceans and soils absorb carbon of “wild cards” could alter the relationship between
dioxide. Over time, about 42 percent (at current emissions rates and atmospheric concentrations—such
emission rates, between 11 and 12 billion metric as the Earth’s capacity to absorb carbon, which some
tons) of the net carbon dioxide emitted through the scientists believe could be diminished by global warm-
burning of fossil fuels and deforestation has been ing. Each of the options outlined below could be
absorbed by the planet and has not accumulated in expected to mitigate 1 billion metric tons or more annu-
the atmosphere. The other 58 percent has been ally by 2030, relative to the IEO2008 reference case pro-
added to the atmospheric balance. One of the jection. It is beyond the scope of this analysis to project
uncertainties in projecting future concentrations is either the upper bound or the economic cost of each
whether the same absorption ratio will hold for option.
future emissions. •Reductions in energy demand growth. Reducing the
growth of energy demand in residential and com-
mercial buildings would require adoption of more
Growth in Carbon Dioxide Emissions and energy-efficient lighting systems (such as compact
Atmospheric Concentration, 1990-2030 fluorescent bulbs and, eventually, light-emitting
Index, 1990 = 100 diodes) and of more efficient heating, cooling, and
250
History Projections
refrigeration systems, as well as energy-efficient
building shell retrofits and new construction. In the
200 transportation sector, it would require more fuel-
Annual Emissions efficient vehicles and more use of public transit and
telecommuting. In the industrial sector, more com-
150
bined heat and power and more efficient processes
would be needed to lower energy demand per unit
100 of industrial output.
Atmospheric Concentration
•Increases in nuclear electricity generation. According
50 to the World Nuclear Association, the achievement
of 740 gigawatts of installed nuclear electricity
0 capacity by 2030—36 percent more than projected
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case—is possible. If addi-
Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information tional nuclear power displaced only coal, such an
Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 increase would achieve a reduction of about 1 bil-
(June-October 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projec- lion metric tons annually by 2030.
tions: EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008). (continued on page 91)
aScientists typically measure carbon dioxide concentrations by the weight of the carbon only, because some carbon exchanges (fluxes)
do not involve carbon dioxide. For this analysis, however, the weight of carbon dioxide is used for consistency with the rest of the
chapter.
bThe concentration levels calculated here are based only on energy-related carbon dioxide. Taking into account other sources of carbon
dioxide and concentrations of other heat-trapping gases, total greenhouse gas concentrations will be somewhat higher.

What Will It Take To Stabilize Carbon Dioxide Concentrations? (Continued)
•Increased use of nonhydropower renewables for electric- For many of the options listed above, the magnitude of
ity generation in the OECD economies. For nonhydro- the required changes relative to the reference case pro-
power renewables to provide 20 percent of the jections points to the difficulty of achieving stabiliza-
electricity consumed in the OECD economies in tion at an atmospheric concentration that is at or below
2030, the use of renewables would have to increase twice preindustrial levels. The effectiveness of reduc-
by an average of 7.4 percent annually from 2010 to tions in electricity demand as a way to decrease carbon
2030, as compared with the 2.5-percent average dioxide emissions depends on the fuel mix, the effi-
increase in the IEO2008 reference case. The increase ciency of generation, and the resultant carbon intensity
would yield 1 billion metric tons of abatement of electricity supply (carbon dioxide emitted per
annually by 2030. kilowatthour of generation). For example, because
coal-fired generation is more carbon-intensive than
•Increased use of hydropower and nonhydropower
natural-gas-fired generation, achieving a given level of
renewables for electricity generation in the non-OECD
reduction in carbon dioxide emissions would require a
economies. Assuming that there are more opportuni-
smaller cut in coal use than the cut in natural gas use
ties for hydropower expansion in the non-OECD
that would be required for the same reduction in emis-
economies than in the OECD economies, if the com-
sions. Similarly, as the overall carbon intensity of elec-
bined use of hydropower and nonhydropower
tric power production declines, larger reductions in
renewables in non-OECD countries grew by 3.5
electricity demand will be needed to achieve a given
percent per year from 2020 to 2030, as compared
level of emission abatement (see figure below).
with 1.3 percent in the IEO2008 reference case, 1 bil-
lion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions would Over time, increases in the efficiencies of generation
be avoided annually by 2030. technologies, such as new natural gas combined-cycle
generation, will mean that demand reductions avoid
•Increased use of renewable fuels for transportation. If
smaller amounts of carbon dioxide emissions. With the
new technologies were employed to minimize car-
average efficiency of electricity generation improving
bon dioxide emissions from input fuels and indirect
over time, the 2030 reference case intensity of 0.48 met-
emissions of other greenhouse gases, so that an
ric tons carbon dioxide per megawatthour of electricity
additional 20 quadrillion Btu of biofuels was con-
supplied is lower than the 2005 historical carbon inten-
sumed in the transportation sector, assuming a
sity of 0.56 metric tons per megawatthour supplied. As
life-cycle savings of 80 percent in carbon dioxide
a result, if more non-carbon-emitting electricity supply
emissions compared to conventional petroleum, 1
is added, such as nuclear and renewables, the demand
billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions
reduction requirement for the same amount of carbon
could be avoided by 2030.
dioxide emissions savings increases over time.
•Carbon capture and storage. It is unlikely that signifi- (continued on page 92)
cant amounts of carbon capture and storage will be
Impact of Carbon Dioxide Intensity of Electricity
implemented before 2020. When the technology
Supply on Effectiveness of Demand Reduction
does become available commercially, its applica-
tion to about 250 gigawatts of coal-fired generation Demand Reduction Required
capacity with a 90-percent removal rate would (Megawatthours per Metric Ton)
result in the mitigation of 1 billion metric tons of 10
carbon dioxide emissions annually. The IEO2008 8 2030
reference case does not include carbon capture and High
Renewables
2030
storage. Although there are some small projects in 6 2005 Carbon
Historical Reference Intensity
pilot phases around the world, the assumption is Carbon Case Carbon
Intensity 2030
that without binding constraints on carbon dioxide 4 2030 Intensity
Technology High
emissions throughout the projection period there $ $ Nuclear and
$ $
Coal Carbon
2 Intensity Renewables
would be no economic incentive to engage in car-
bon capture and storage. $ Carbon
Intensity
0
•Anthropogenic sequestration. The latest assessment 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Carbon Dioxide Intensity of Generation
estimates that about 3.7 billion tons carbon dioxide (Metric Tons per Megawatthour)
equivalent per year is sequestered by anthropo- Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-
genic activity, including projects such as reforesta- tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-
tion and other land-use programs. A 27-percent October 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections:
increase in such activity by 2030 would represent Estimated by EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Fore-
an emissions reduction of 1 billion metric tons. casting.

What Will It Take To Stabilize Carbon Dioxide Concentrations? (Continued)
There are wide ranges of estimates both for the mar- •What discount rates are used for future costs and
ginal cost levels required to achieve various reduction benefits?
levels and for the corresponding impacts on GDP.
Policies to achieve emission abatements can have a •Do new technologies, such as carbon capture and
large effect on the cost estimates, as can the rate of storage, enter the technology base early enough to
development of low- or non-carbon technologies. Spe- be employed in the abatement strategy?
cific questions that would have to be answered in order
to estimate costs include: If, by 2030, world GDP were 1 percent lower as a
result of mitigation efforts, it would mean an annual
•Are all greenhouse gases included in the analysis?
cost of about $1.5 trillion (in constant 2000 dollars).
Are emissions credits freely traded?
The costs must of course be weighed against future
•Is nuclear power allowed to grow at a rapid pace? benefits in the form of avoiding human-caused climate
•Are biomass and other renewable technologies disruptions.
allowed to penetrate rapidly?
Coal’s share of world carbon dioxide emissions grew namely, 2010. The IEO2008 projections do not explicitly
from 39 percent in 1990 to 41 percent in 2005 and is pro- include the impacts of the Kyoto Protocol, because the
jected to increase to 44 percent in 2030. Coal is the most treaty does not indicate the methods by which ratifying
carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels, and it is the fast- parties will implement their obligations.
est-growing energy source in the IEO2008 reference case
projection, reflecting its important role in the energy mix Further, although some countries have passed laws
of non-OECD countries—especially China and India. In intended to implement the goals of the Kyoto Protocol, it
1990, China and India together accounted for 13 percent is difficult to interpret those laws in the IEO2008 refer-
of world carbon dioxide emissions; in 2005 their com- ence case. Many of the Kyoto goals are being met by
bined share had risen to 23 percent, largely because of “Kyoto mechanisms,” such as reforestation, which are
strong economic growth and increasing use of coal to not reflected in the projections. Additionally, green-
provide energy for that growth. In 2030, carbon dioxide house gases other than carbon dioxide often are the least
emissions from China and India combined are projected expensive to reduce, and those reductions may account
to account for 34 percent of total world emissions, with for a larger proportion of some countries’ Kyoto goals.
China alone responsible for 28 percent of the world total. In the IEO2008 projections only energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions are calculated; estimates of other
The Kyoto Protocol, which requires participating greenhouse gas emissions are not included.
“Annex I” countries to reduce their greenhouse gas
emissions collectively to an annual average of about 5 Finally, the participants have been unable to agree on a
percent below their 1990 level over the 2008-2012 period, second commitment period or on any actions that might
entered into force on February 16, 2005. Annex I coun- occur after 2012. Until those issues are resolved, it will be
tries include the 24 original OECD countries, the Euro- difficult to project the effects of the Kyoto Protocol
pean Union, and 14 countries that are considered through 2030.21
“economies in transition.”20 As of December 3, 2007, 174
countries and the European Commission had ratified There are signs that concerns about global climate
the Kyoto Protocol; however, only the Annex I countries change are beginning to affect the world fuel mix. In
that have ratified the Protocol are obligated to reduce or recent years, many countries have begun to express new
limit their carbon dioxide emissions. The United States interest in expanding their use of non-carbon-emitting
has not ratified the Protocol; and although both China nuclear power, in part to stem the growth of greenhouse
and India have ratified it, neither is subject to emissions gas emissions. The IEO2008 reference case projection for
limits under the terms of the treaty. electricity generation from nuclear power in 2030 is
almost 4 percent higher than the IEO2007 projection,
Although the Protocol is technically “in force,” it would which in turn is 10 percent higher than the IEO2006 pro-
have an effect on only one year of the IEO2008 forecast, jection. The changes reflect a generally more favorable
20 Turkey is an Annex I country that has not ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change and did not commit to quantifiable
emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol.
21 For a modeling analysis of the effects of the Kyoto Protocol, see Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2006,
DOE/EIA-0484(2006) (Washington, DC, June 2006), “Kyoto Protocol Case,” pp. 75-79, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo.

perception of nuclear power as an alternative to carbon- emissions relative to earlier estimates.22 In the IEO2007
producing fossil fuels for electricity generation. reference case, U.S. emissions were projected to grow by
an average of 1.1 percent per year from 2005 to 2030. In
Reference Case the IEO2008 reference case, in contrast, the projected
annual growth rate is 0.5 percent over the same period,
Carbon Dioxide Emissions leading to a 14-percent lower projection for energy-
In the IEO2008 reference case, world energy-related car- related carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 in IEO2008
bon dioxide emissions are projected to grow by an aver- compared with IEO2007 (Figure 78).
age of 1.7 percent per year from 2005 to 2030 (Table 12).
For the OECD, annual increases in carbon dioxide emis- For the non-OECD countries, total carbon dioxide emis-
sions are projected to average 0.5 percent, from 13.6 bil- sions are projected to average 2.5-percent annual growth
lion metric tons in 2005 to 14.4 billion metric tons in 2015
and 15.5 billion metric tons in 2030. Figure 77. Average Annual Growth in Energy-
Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in
The highest rate of increase in annual emissions of car- the OECD Economies, 2005-2030
bon dioxide among the OECD countries is projected for
Mexico 2.1
Mexico, at 2.1 percent per year (Figure 77). Mexico is
projected to have the highest GDP growth rate among South Korea 1.3
the OECD countries, and much of its growth is expected
Canada 0.9
to come from energy-intensive industries. For all the
Australia/
other OECD countries, annual increases in carbon diox- New Zealand 0.8
ide emissions are projected to average less than 1.5 per-
United States 0.5
cent. South Korea, which still is industrializing, is the
only OECD country other than Mexico for which the OECD Europe 0.4
average is projected to be greater than 1 percent. Japan’s
Japan -0.2
emissions are projected to decrease by an average of 0.2
percent per year from 2005 to 2030, and for OECD Total OECD 0.5
Europe an average annual increase of 0.4 percent per
year is projected. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Percent per Year
Although the United States has not ratified binding Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
emissions constraints, recent changes in U.S. environ- International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
mental laws and regulations (in addition to other fac- site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, World Energy Projec-
tors) have lowered the projections for carbon dioxide tions Plus (2008).
Table 12. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2030

(Billion Metric Tons)
History Projections Average Annual Percent Change
Region 1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990-2005 2005-2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 13.6 13.8 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.5 1.2% 0.5%
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.3 1.3% 0.7%
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 0.4% 0.4%
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3% 0.4%
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 14.5 17.3 20.0 22.3 24.5 26.8 2.6% 2.5%
Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . 4.2 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 -2.5% 1.1%
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.2 10.2 12.2 13.9 15.7 17.5 5.6% 3.1%
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 4.7% 1.9%
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.7% 1.8%
Central and South America . . 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 3.2% 1.9%
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 28.1 31.1 34.3 37.0 39.6 42.3 1.9% 1.7%
Sources: 1990 and 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008).
22 For example, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which was signed into law in December 2007 (Public Law 110-140),
includes a number of provisions aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Other factors that contribute to the lower projections for car-
bon dioxide emissions include higher energy prices and lower projected economic growth rates in comparison with previous outlooks.

(Figure 79). The highest growth rate among the non- percent per year, to 8.7 billion metric tons in 2030, with
OECD countries is projected for China, at 3.3 percent the OECD countries averaging 1.0 percent and the
annually from 2005 to 2030, reflecting the country’s con- non-OECD countries 2.4 percent (Figure 81). Again,
tinued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, especially coal, China is projected to have the most rapid growth in
over the projection period. China’s energy-related emis- emissions, averaging 5.5 percent annually; however,
sions of carbon dioxide are projected to exceed U.S. China’s emissions from natural gas combustion
emissions by almost 15 percent in 2010 and by 75 percent amounted to only 0.1 billion metric tons in 2005, and in
in 2030. The lowest growth rate among the non-OECD 2030 they are projected to total only 0.4 billion metric
countries is projected for Russia, at 0.9 percent per year. tons, or less than 5 percent of the world total. The growth
Over the projection period, Russia is expected to expand in U.S. emissions from natural gas use is projected to
its reliance on indigenous natural gas resources and average 0.1 percent per year, but the projected level of
nuclear power to fuel electricity generation, and a 1.2 billion metric tons in 2030 is triple the projection for
decline in its population is expected to slow the overall China.
rate of increase in energy demand.
Total carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of
By fuel, world carbon dioxide emissions from the con- coal throughout the world are projected to increase by
sumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum are pro- 2.0 percent per year on average, from 11.4 billion metric
jected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent tons in 2005 to 18.8 billion metric tons in 2030. Total
from 2005 to 2030. The average growth rates for the coal-related emissions from the non-OECD countries
OECD and non-OECD countries are projected to be 0.3 have been greater than those from the OECD countries
percent and 2.2 percent per year, respectively (Figure since 1987, and in 2030 they are projected to be more
80). The highest rate of growth in petroleum-related car- than 2.5 times the OECD total (Figure 82), in large part
bon dioxide emissions is projected for China, at 3.5 per- because of the increase in coal use projected for China
cent per year, as its demand for liquid fuels increases to and India. Together, China and India account for 79 per-
meet growing demand in the transportation and indus- cent of the projected increase in the world’s coal-related
trial sectors. The United States is expected to remain the carbon dioxide emissions from 2005 to 2030. For China
largest source of petroleum-related carbon dioxide alone, coal-related emissions are projected to grow by an
emissions throughout the period, with projected emis- average of 3.2 percent annually, from 4.3 billion metric
sions of 2.8 billion metric tons in 2030—still 34 percent tons in 2005 to 9.6 billion metric tons (51 percent of the
above the corresponding projection for China. world total) in 2030. India’s carbon dioxide emissions
from coal combustion are projected to total 1.4 billion
Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion metric tons in 2030, accounting for more than 7 percent
worldwide are projected to increase on average by 1.7 of the world total.
Figure 78. U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Figure 79. Average Annual Growth in Energy-
Emissions in IEO2007 and IEO2008, Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in
2005-2030 the Non-OECD Economies, 2005-2030
Billion Metric Tons China 3.3
10
Coal India 2.6
8.0
8 Natural Gas Other Asia 2.6
Oil 6.6 6.9 Brazil 2.3
6.0 6.2
6 Middle East 1.9
Africa 1.8
Other Central and
4 South America 1.7
Other Europe 1.5
and Eurasia
2 Russia 0.9
Total Non-OECD 2.5
0
2005 IEO2007 IEO2008 IEO2007 IEO2008 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
2015 2030 Percent per Year
Sources: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, Janu- International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
ary 2007), and Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA- site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, World Energy Projec-
0383(2008) (Washington, DC, April 2008). tions Plus (2008).

Carbon Dioxide Intensity Measures Fossil fuel use in the non-OECD countries is projected to
Emissions per Dollar of GDP increase strongly over the projection period; however,
their economic growth is expected to be even stronger.
In all countries and regions, energy-related carbon diox- As a result, non-OECD carbon dioxide intensity is pro-
ide intensities—expressed in emissions per unit of eco- jected to decline by an average of 2.6 percent per year,
nomic output—are projected to improve (decline) over from 529 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in 2005
the projection period as all world economies continue to to 274 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in 2030. In
use energy more efficiently. In 2005, estimated carbon particular, China, with a relatively high projected rate of
dioxide intensities were 461 metric tons per million dol- growth in emissions (3.3 percent per year), has an even
lars of GDP in the OECD countries and 529 metric tons in higher projected growth rate for GDP (6.4 percent). As a
the non-OECD countries (Table 13).23 result, its emissions intensity falls from 693 metric tons
per million dollars in 2005 to 334 metric tons in 2030.
Figure 80. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions
from Liquids Combustion, 1990-2030 For all the OECD countries, average carbon dioxide
Billion Metric Tons
10 intensity in 2030 is projected to be 296 metric tons per
History Projections million dollars. OECD Europe is projected to have the
lowest carbon dioxide intensity among the OECD econ-
8
omies in 2030, at 241 metric tons per million dollars, fol-
OECD lowed by Mexico at 247 metric tons and Japan at 262
6 metric tons. (Mexico’s relatively low carbon dioxide
intensity results in large part from its projected 3.9-
Non-OECD percent annual GDP growth rate, the highest among the
4
OECD countries.) Without carbon dioxide constraints,
Canada is projected to have the highest carbon dioxide
2 intensity of the OECD countries in 2030, at 422 metric
tons per million dollars, followed by South Korea at 396
metric tons and Australia/New Zealand at 365 metric
0
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 tons. U.S. carbon dioxide intensity in 2030 is projected to
be 339 metric tons per million dollars of GDP. The aver-
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web age for the entire world is projected to fall from 494 met-
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy ric tons per million dollars of GDP in 2005 to 282 metric
Projections Plus (2008). tons in 2030.
Figure 81. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions

from Natural Gas Combustion, Figure 82. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions
1990-2030 from Coal Combustion, 1990-2030
6 15
History Projections History Projections
Non-OECD Non-OECD
4 10
OECD
2 5
OECD
0 0
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
23 GDP is measured in chain-weighted 2000 dollars converted to the currency of the relevant country or region, based on purchasing
power parity.

Emissions per Capita Figure 83. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Another measure of carbon dioxide intensity is emis- per Capita, 1990-2030
sions per person. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita in Metric Tons per Person
15
the OECD economies are significantly higher (about History Projections
fourfold in 2005) than in the non-OECD economies
(Figure 83). If non-OECD countries consumed as much
energy per capita as the OECD countries, the projection OECD
10
for world carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 would be
much larger, because the non-OECD countries would
consume almost four times more energy than the cur-
rent reference case estimate of 409 quadrillion Btu.
5
Further, given the expectation that non-OECD countries Non-OECD
will rely heavily on fossil fuels to meet their energy
needs, the increase in carbon dioxide emissions would
be even greater.
0
Among the non-OECD countries, Russia has the highest 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions per Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
capita in the IEO2008 reference case, from 12 metric tons International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
per person in 2005 to 17 metric tons in 2030 (Figure 84 site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy
and Table 14). A projected decline in Russia’s popula-
tion, averaging 0.6 percent per year from 2005 to 2030,
Table 13. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1980-2030

(Metric Tons per Million 2000 U.S. Dollars of Gross Domestic Product)
Average Annual
History Projections Percent Change
1990- 2005-
Region 1980 1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 732 565 461 411 379 347 319 296 -1.3% -1.8%
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 916 701 544 483 439 399 366 339 -1.7% -1.9%
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 867 679 607 563 521 486 453 422 -0.7% -1.4%
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 441 381 337 312 288 266 247 -1.0% -1.7%
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 674 508 383 343 318 290 264 241 -1.9% -1.8%
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482 353 358 316 297 284 273 262 0.1% -1.2%
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 942 729 670 580 521 464 424 396 -0.6% -2.1%
Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 694 679 633 558 500 449 404 365 -0.5% -2.2%
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 694 711 529 440 388 344 306 274 -2.0% -2.6%
Europe/Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,019 1,166 804 615 531 469 410 368 -2.4% -3.1%
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 900 1,060 836 649 554 494 432 392 -1.6% -3.0%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,215 1,339 762 573 504 440 385 342 -3.7% -3.2%
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 755 624 498 411 363 322 289 261 -1.5% -2.5%
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,959 1,242 693 552 478 421 373 334 -3.8% -2.9%
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 333 287 221 189 165 148 135 -1.0% -3.0%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400 352 360 313 299 270 246 224 0.1% -1.9%
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450 854 903 827 747 679 605 539 0.4% -2.0%
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398 448 421 362 327 292 255 220 -0.4% -2.6%
Central and South America . . . . 317 310 305 290 262 234 209 187 -0.1% -1.9%
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 211 219 224 208 192 175 162 0.2% -1.2%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403 398 379 342 303 267 234 205 -0.3% -2.4%
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 716 624 494 427 384 345 311 282 -1.6% -2.2%
Note: GDP is expressed in terms of purchasing power parity.
Sources: 1980-2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008).

slows the growth in its total carbon dioxide emissions to Figure 84. Non-OECD Carbon Dioxide Emissions
an average annual rate of 0.9 percent, but the population per Capita by Country and Region,
decline leads to a higher rate of increase in emissions per 1990-2030
capita. The lowest levels of per capita emissions in the Metric Tons per Person
20
world are in India and Africa. For India, emissions per
History Projections
capita are projected to increase by about 50 percent, from
1.0 metric tons per person in 2005 to 1.5 in 2030. For
Africa, emissions per capita are projected to remain at 15
about 1 metric ton per person through 2030.
Russia
The OECD countries have higher levels of carbon diox- 10
ide emissions per capita, in part because of their higher
levels of income and fossil fuel use per capita. In the Middle East
United States, emissions per capita are projected to 5 India Africa
fall slightly, from 20 metric tons per person in 2005 to China Brazil
19 metric tons in 2030 (Figure 85). Canada’s emissions
per capita are projected to rise slightly, from 19 metric 0
tons per person in 2005 to 20 metric tons in 2030, in 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
the absence of binding constraints on carbon dioxide Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
emissions. In Mexico, with the lowest level of per capita International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web
emissions among the OECD countries, an increase from site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy
4 metric tons in 2005 to 5 metric tons in 2030 is projected. Projections Plus (2008).
Table 14. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita, 1980-2030

(Metric Tons per Person)
Average Annual
History Projections Percent Change
1990- 2005-
Region 1980 1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 10.9 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.0 0.4 0.1
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.6 19.6 20.1 19.3 19.2 18.9 18.7 18.7 0.2 -0.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 16.8 19.5 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.9 20.1 1.0 0.1
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.2 0.4 1.2
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 -0.1 0.2
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 8.2 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.9 1.1 0.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.6 10.4 11.5 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.3 4.2 1.3
Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 12.3 14.4 18.2 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.9 1.6 -0.1
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 1.1 1.4
Europe/Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 12.1 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.5 11.0 11.8 -2.4 1.4
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 16.0 11.8 12.7 13.9 15.0 15.8 17.1 -2.0 1.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 9.1 5.9 6.4 7.1 7.6 8.0 8.5 -2.9 1.5
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.1 2.2
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.0 4.1 5.1 5.9 6.7 7.4 8.2 5.0 2.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 3.0 1.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.2 1.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.1 7.3 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.7 2.4 0.2
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 -0.2
Central and South America . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 1.7 0.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.9 1.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 1.5 0.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 0.5 0.7
Sources: 1980-2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October
2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008).

Other factors that can affect carbon dioxide emissions Alternative Macroeconomic Growth
per capita include climate (in general, more energy is
used per capita for heating in colder climates than is Cases
used for cooling in warmer climates) and population Economic growth is the most significant factor underly-
density (densely populated countries use less energy per ing the projections for growth in energy-related carbon
capita for transportation). For example, Canada has a dioxide emissions in the mid-term, as the world contin-
relatively cold climate with a low population density, ues to rely on fossil fuels for most of its energy use.
and its carbon dioxide emissions in 2005 are estimated at Accordingly, projections of world carbon dioxide emis-
19.5 metric tons per capita, whereas Japan has a more sions are lower in the IEO2008 low economic growth
temperate climate and a much higher population den- case and higher in the high economic growth case.
sity, and its emissions in 2005 are estimated at 9.6 metric
tons per capita—about half the rate for Canada. In the high growth case, world carbon dioxide emissions
are projected to increase at an average rate of 2.1 percent
Figure 85. OECD Carbon Dioxide Emissions annually from 2005 to 2030, as compared with 1.7 per-
per Capita by Country and Region, cent in the reference case. For the OECD countries, the
1990-2030 projected average increase is 0.9 percent per year; for the
Metric Tons per Person
non-OECD countries, the average is 2.9 percent per year.
25 In the low growth case, world carbon dioxide emissions
History Projections
are projected to increase by 1.3 percent per year, with
United States Canada averages of 0.2 percent per year in the OECD countries
20
and 2.1 percent per year in the non-OECD countries
Australia/New Zealand (compared with 0.5 percent and 2.5 percent, respec-
15 tively, in the reference case). Total emissions worldwide
South Korea
are projected to be 38.4 billion metric tons in 2030 in the
Japan low growth case and 46.6 billion metric tons in the high
10
growth case—21 percent higher than projected in the
OECD Europe low growth case (Figure 86). The projections for emis-
5 sions by fuel show similar variations across the cases.
Mexico
0 Alternative Price Cases
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
The projections for carbon dioxide emissions in the
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), IEO2008 low and high price cases (Figure 87) show
smaller variations from the reference case than do those
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy
Projections Plus (2008). in the alternative macroeconomic growth cases. In 2030,
Figure 86. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Three Figure 87. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Three
Economic Growth Cases, 2005 and 2030 Alternative Price Cases, 2005 and 2030
50 50
Non-OECD Non-OECD
40 OECD 40 OECD
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
2005 2030 2005 2030
Low Growth Reference High Growth Low Price Reference High Price
Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration, Interna- Sources: 2005: Energy Information Administration, Interna-
tional Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site tional Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: Energy Information Administra- www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: Energy Information Administra-
tion, World Energy Projections Plus (2008). tion, World Energy Projections Plus (2008).

as compared with the reference case projection (42.3 bil- reach $186 per barrel in 2030, nations choose alternative
lion metric tons), total carbon dioxide emissions are pro- fuels over liquids wherever possible, so that liquids-
jected to be higher in the low price case (43.4 billion related emissions total 13.1 billion metric tons in 2030,
metric tons) and lower in the high price case (40.1 billion down from 14.9 billion metric tons in the reference case.
metric tons). Thus, there is an 8-percent difference In the low price case, world oil prices decline to $69 per
between the projections in the two alternative world oil barrel in 2030, substantially lower than the $113 per bar-
price cases, as compared with a 21-percent difference rel projected in the reference case and providing little
between the alternative macroeconomic growth cases. economic incentive for nations to turn to other forms of
energy. Consequently, liquids-related emissions in 2030
In the alternative price cases, world oil and natural gas in the low price case, at 16.2 billion metric tons, are 1.3
prices are affected more strongly than coal prices. As a billion metric tons higher than projected in the reference
result (and in the absence of policies to limit the use of case.
coal), in the high price case both liquids and natural gas
lose global market share to coal relative to the reference The impact of high prices on natural gas use is smaller
case projection. In the IEO2008 reference case, coal’s than the impact on liquids consumption, but a similar
share of total energy use is projected to increase to 29 trend away from natural gas to other fuels, particularly
percent in 2030; in the high price case, its share increases coal, is projected. In the high price case, world carbon
to 30 percent; and in the low price case, its share drops to dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion in 2030
27 percent in 2030. total 8.3 billion metric tons, down from 8.7 billion metric
tons in the reference case. In the low price case, natural-
Prices have the greatest impact on world liquids con- gas-related emissions in 2030 are projected to total 9.2
sumption and the associated carbon dioxide emissions. billion metric tons.
In the high price case, where nominal world oil prices

Appendix A
Reference Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption
• Gross Domestic Product
• Carbon Dioxide Emissions
• World Population
Reference Case Projections
Table A1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
History Projections Average Annual
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.7 120.6 121.3 126.4 132.3 137.8 143.4 148.9 0.8
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 100.1 100.1 103.3 107.3 110.8 114.5 118.0 0.7
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0 14.0 14.3 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.3 1.2
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.9 7.4 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.6 2.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 81.0 81.4 83.9 86.8 88.5 90.4 92.0 0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.3 41.4 42.7 43.7 44.9 0.7
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.5 22.7 22.6 22.4 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.4 0.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 9.0 9.3 10.3 11.6 12.4 13.0 13.7 1.6
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 0.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.5 239.4 240.9 249.7 260.5 269.0 277.6 285.9 0.7
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.3 49.5 50.7 55.1 59.5 63.3 66.0 69.1 1.2
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.4 29.9 30.3 32.7 34.9 36.7 38.0 39.6 1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.0 19.6 20.4 22.4 24.5 26.5 28.0 29.4 1.5
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.4 101.0 109.9 137.1 164.2 189.4 215.3 240.8 3.2
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 59.9 67.1 87.3 104.0 120.6 138.0 155.2 3.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 15.5 16.2 19.4 23.2 26.6 29.9 33.2 2.9
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 25.6 26.6 30.5 37.0 42.2 47.3 52.4 2.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.4 29.5 32.6 34.7 36.8 1.9
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.5 18.9 20.9 22.5 23.9 2.0
Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 22.5 23.4 27.7 30.5 33.2 35.7 38.3 2.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 9.0 9.3 11.1 12.6 14.1 15.5 17.0 2.4
Other Central and South America . . 8.8 13.5 14.1 16.6 17.9 19.1 20.3 21.3 1.7
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.9 207.9 221.3 262.8 302.5 339.4 374.2 408.8 2.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.4 447.3 462.2 512.5 563.0 608.4 651.8 694.7 1.6
a
Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.
Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not
equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of
generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun-
try.
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008),
AEO2008 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D030208F, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Pro-
jections Plus (2008).

Appendix A
Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 48.9 49.1 49.4 51.4 52.3 53.4 55.2 0.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.1 28.0 29.8 31.0 31.6 32.1 32.8 0.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.6 24.5 24.8 25.3 26.5 28.3 30.2 32.4 1.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 9.3 9.3 9.7 9.8 10.5 11.0 11.2 0.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 10.2 12.2 13.6 15.2 16.7 17.3 2.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.7 120.6 121.3 126.4 132.3 137.8 143.4 148.9 0.8
OECD Europe
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 32.0 32.1 31.9 32.8 33.0 33.1 33.2 0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 19.4 19.9 21.3 23.5 25.5 26.7 28.0 1.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 13.3 13.2 13.8 13.7 13.3 13.0 12.6 -0.2
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 -0.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.3 6.5 7.2 7.3 7.9 8.6 9.0 1.3
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 81.0 81.4 83.9 86.8 88.5 90.4 92.0 0.5
OECD Asia
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 17.3 17.5 17.2 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.8 0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.6 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.5 1.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 10.0 0.3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 4.0 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.5 5.9 6.3 1.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.7
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.3 41.4 42.7 43.7 44.9 0.7
Total OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.6 98.2 98.7 98.5 102.1 103.7 105.1 107.2 0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 53.1 53.4 57.3 61.2 64.1 66.1 68.3 1.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 47.0 47.3 48.7 49.9 51.2 52.9 55.0 0.6
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 23.1 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 26.0 26.8 0.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.9 18.2 21.3 22.9 25.2 27.5 28.7 1.8
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.5 239.4 240.9 249.7 260.5 269.0 277.6 285.9 0.7
Non-OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 9.8 10.0 11.3 12.1 12.9 13.6 14.2 1.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 25.1 26.0 28.1 30.0 31.8 32.8 34.4 1.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 8.8 8.9 10.0 10.4 10.5 11.2 0.9
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.2 2.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 1.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.3 49.5 50.7 55.1 59.5 63.3 66.0 69.1 1.2
Non-OECD Asia
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0 30.5 31.5 37.5 43.9 50.2 56.5 63.6 2.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.9 9.8 13.3 17.7 22.3 25.8 28.9 4.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 54.9 60.9 76.4 90.7 102.6 115.4 128.2 3.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 3.1 4.7 6.0 6.8 7.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.6 6.6 8.4 8.8 9.6 11.5 13.3 2.8
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.4 101.0 109.9 137.1 164.2 189.4 215.3 240.8 3.2
See notes at end of table.

Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Continued)
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Non-OECD (Continued)
Middle East
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 11.3 12.0 14.0 15.3 16.9 18.2 19.5 2.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 9.0 10.2 11.7 13.4 14.9 15.7 16.4 1.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.4
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.4 29.5 32.6 34.7 36.8 1.9
Africa
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.8 6.0 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.5 8.8 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.9 6.0 6.7 7.5 3.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.6 1.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.7
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.5 18.9 20.9 22.5 23.9 2.0
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.0 11.2 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.1 16.0 1.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.4 4.7 6.0 7.1 7.9 8.6 9.3 2.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 3.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.9 9.0 9.9 10.8 2.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 22.5 23.4 27.7 30.5 33.2 35.7 38.3 2.0
Total Non-OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.9 68.4 70.8 82.6 92.3 102.4 111.9 122.1 2.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 50.2 53.9 63.0 73.1 82.8 89.6 96.4 2.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.7 69.1 75.2 91.5 107.9 120.5 133.8 147.3 2.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.3 4.2 5.1 7.1 9.7 11.8 12.6 4.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 15.9 17.2 20.7 22.1 24.0 27.2 30.3 2.3
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.9 207.9 221.3 262.8 302.5 339.4 374.2 408.8 2.5
Total World
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.4 166.6 169.4 181.1 194.4 206.1 216.9 229.3 1.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 103.3 107.4 120.3 134.4 146.9 155.8 164.7 1.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.2 116.1 122.5 140.2 157.8 171.7 186.7 202.2 2.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 27.4 27.5 28.8 31.4 34.5 37.7 39.4 1.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 33.8 35.5 42.0 45.0 49.3 54.7 59.0 2.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.4 447.3 462.2 512.5 563.0 608.4 651.8 694.7 1.6
try.

Appendix A
Table A3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,
(Billion 2000 Dollars)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,696 13,083 14,913 17,088 19,366 21,886 24,772 2.6
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,676 11,004 12,453 14,199 15,984 17,951 20,219 2.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 1,004 1,034 1,187 1,339 1,498 1,668 1,858 2.4
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 1,016 1,045 1,273 1,550 1,884 2,266 2,695 3.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 11,197 11,445 13,150 14,710 16,395 18,184 20,076 2.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,775 4,887 5,565 6,168 6,674 7,166 7,694 1.8
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,377 3,440 3,788 4,045 4,212 4,338 4,467 1.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 715 745 963 1,175 1,360 1,550 1,749 3.5
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 683 702 814 948 1,102 1,278 1,477 3.0
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 28,667 29,415 33,627 37,965 42,436 47,236 52,542 2.3
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,340 3,563 4,985 6,268 7,488 8,840 10,362 4.4
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,907 2,029 2,754 3,433 4,020 4,671 5,404 4.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,433 1,534 2,231 2,835 3,468 4,169 4,957 4.8
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,792 15,102 16,436 24,780 33,468 43,245 54,322 66,955 5.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,805 6,961 7,685 12,502 17,183 22,532 28,811 35,973 6.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,697 3,714 4,056 6,092 8,476 11,036 13,647 16,524 5.8
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,428 4,695 6,186 7,809 9,677 11,863 14,458 4.6
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,466 1,550 1,961 2,414 2,926 3,504 4,174 4.0
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,182 2,295 3,014 3,798 4,672 5,690 6,891 4.5
Central and South America . . . . . . 2,162 3,372 3,535 4,515 5,464 6,533 7,784 9,259 3.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,581 1,627 2,012 2,393 2,823 3,320 3,896 3.6
Other Central and South America . . 1,140 1,791 1,908 2,503 3,071 3,710 4,464 5,362 4.2
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,824 25,462 27,378 39,255 51,413 64,864 80,141 97,640 5.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,989 54,129 56,793 72,882 89,378 107,299 127,377 150,182 4.0
a
Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. GDP growth rates for China and India were
adjusted, based on the analyst’s judgment.
Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World
Overview, Fourth Quarter 2007 (Lexington, MA, January 2008); and EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008)
(Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO2008 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D030208F, web site www.eia.doe.gov/
oiaf/aeo.

Table A4. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Market Exchange Rates,
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,676 11,004 12,453 14,199 15,984 17,951 20,219 2.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543 797 822 943 1,064 1,190 1,325 1,476 2.4
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414 618 635 774 942 1,146 1,378 1,639 3.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,878 9,436 9,620 10,943 12,135 13,412 14,754 16,160 2.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,743 6,002 6,133 6,906 7,559 8,072 8,547 9,052 1.6
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,144 4,887 4,978 5,481 5,854 6,095 6,278 6,465 1.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284 614 639 826 1,008 1,167 1,330 1,500 3.5
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 316 502 515 598 697 810 939 1,086 3.0
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,690 27,529 28,214 32,019 35,898 39,804 43,955 48,546 2.2
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 700 656 699 971 1,217 1,452 1,713 2,006 4.3
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 329 350 474 591 693 805 931 4.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314 327 349 497 625 760 908 1,075 4.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,478 3,784 4,100 6,088 8,134 10,432 13,045 16,022 5.6
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445 1,715 1,893 3,080 4,233 5,551 7,098 8,863 6.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 599 655 983 1,368 1,781 2,203 2,667 5.8
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 760 1,469 1,552 2,025 2,533 3,099 3,744 4,492 4.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 723 769 988 1,223 1,485 1,783 2,121 4.1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 707 745 981 1,234 1,513 1,839 2,222 4.5
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500 717 738 913 1,085 1,280 1,506 1,767 3.6
Other Central and South America . . 612 958 1,022 1,345 1,657 2,005 2,419 2,914 4.3
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,176 7,544 8,072 11,286 14,550 18,168 22,303 27,053 5.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,866 35,073 36,286 43,305 50,448 57,972 66,258 75,598 3.0
a
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. GDP growth rates for China and India were
adjusted, based on the analyst’s judgment.
Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World
Overview, Fourth Quarter 2007 (Lexington, MA, January 2008); and EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008)
(Washington, DC, June 2008), Table A19.

Appendix A
Table A5. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.7 20.8 20.7 21.4 21.6 21.8 22.3 0.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 0.6
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.1 1.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 0.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 8.5 8.6 8.4 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 0.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 -0.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 1.3
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 49.0 49.3 49.1 50.9 51.6 52.2 53.3 0.3
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 0.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 2.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 14.8 15.3 18.1 21.2 24.3 27.4 30.8 2.9
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 6.4 6.7 8.8 10.0 11.7 13.6 15.7 3.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.9 2.8
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.5 5.9 6.8 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.5 2.0
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.3 1.6
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.3 1.7
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 33.3 34.3 40.1 44.8 49.7 54.3 59.3 2.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.6 82.3 83.6 89.2 95.7 101.3 106.5 112.5 1.2
a

Table A6. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.4 22.2 23.2 23.7 23.3 23.0 22.7 0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 1.5
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.4 4.0 3.4
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.9 19.3 20.7 22.8 24.7 26.0 27.2 1.4
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.2 5.2 5.8 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.0 1.2
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 0.7
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.2
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 51.6 51.9 55.4 59.2 61.9 63.9 65.9 1.0
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 16.0 16.2 17.3 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.5 1.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.4 9.1 10.0 10.8 11.7 12.2 12.9 1.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 8.5 9.3 12.6 16.8 21.2 24.4 27.4 4.4
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.4 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.0 5.7 6.4 5.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.6
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.6 9.8 11.2 12.8 14.2 14.9 15.7 1.9
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.6 4.5 5.6 6.3 7.0 3.5
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 4.2
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 48.2 51.8 60.3 70.0 79.1 85.6 92.1 2.3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 99.8 103.7 115.7 129.2 141.1 149.5 158.0 1.7
a

Appendix A
Table A7. World Coal Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.6 22.8 23.0 24.2 25.9 27.7 29.9 1.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 0.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 13.3 13.2 13.8 13.7 13.3 13.0 12.6 -0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 10.0 0.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 -0.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 1.1
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 47.0 47.3 48.7 49.9 51.2 52.9 55.0 0.6
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.7 0.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 4.1 4.0 4.1 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.5 1.2
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 54.9 60.9 76.4 90.7 102.6 115.4 128.2 3.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 41.4 46.9 60.3 72.1 82.5 93.2 103.4 3.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 8.4 8.6 9.9 11.6 12.9 14.1 15.5 2.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.6 1.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 4.1
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.7 69.1 75.2 91.5 107.9 120.5 133.8 147.3 2.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.2 116.1 122.5 140.2 157.8 171.7 186.7 202.2 2.0
a
Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Table A8. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030
(Billion Kilowatthours)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 883 880 917 931 998 1,048 1,063 0.8
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 789 782 797 807 868 911 917 0.6
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 86 87 110 113 120 127 135 1.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 0.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 941 929 914 902 829 854 879 -0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 392 418 440 494 546 583 624 1.6
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 268 278 299 319 336 358 381 1.3
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 124 139 142 175 210 225 243 2.2
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,216 2,227 2,271 2,326 2,373 2,485 2,565 0.6
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 263 264 289 327 409 472 485 2.5
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 137 140 155 190 236 293 305 3.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 125 124 134 136 172 180 180 1.5
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 103 106 150 293 446 573 643 7.5
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 48 50 65 164 267 351 410 8.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 15 16 37 66 104 134 149 9.4
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 40 40 47 64 75 88 84 3.0
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 6 —
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 14 12 14 15 15 21 21 2.2
Central and South America . . . . . . 9 19 16 23 28 34 34 34 2.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 12 10 15 18 22 22 22 1.8
Other Central and South America . . 7 7 6 8 10 12 11 11 2.4
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 399 399 476 669 910 1,106 1,189 4.4
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,615 2,626 2,747 2,996 3,283 3,591 3,754 1.4
a

Appendix A
Table A9. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Reference Case,
1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.6 8.5 9.7 10.9 11.2 2.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 1.6
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.5
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.3 6.5 7.2 7.3 7.9 8.6 9.0 1.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.7
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 7.7
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.9 18.2 21.3 22.9 25.2 27.5 28.7 1.8
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.1
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.6 6.6 8.4 8.8 9.6 11.5 13.3 2.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 3.3 4.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 6.8 8.1 2.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.3 7.0 2.8
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 15.9 17.2 20.7 22.1 24.0 27.2 30.3 2.3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 33.8 35.5 42.0 45.0 49.3 54.7 59.0 2.1
a
Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol,
and liquid hydrogen.

Table A10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030
(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,957 5,982 6,011 6,226 6,384 6,571 6,851 0.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 623 628 669 698 727 756 784 0.9
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 379 398 430 484 542 601 665 2.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,101 4,373 4,383 4,512 4,678 4,760 4,800 4,834 0.4
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,541 2,148 2,174 2,208 2,287 2,322 2,357 2,403 0.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,009 1,242 1,230 1,196 1,201 1,195 1,184 1,170 -0.2
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 488 500 559 612 632 656 693 1.3
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 418 444 454 474 495 517 540 0.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,396 13,480 13,565 13,829 14,373 14,736 15,085 15,538 0.5
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,376 1,669 1,696 1,789 1,902 1,984 2,020 2,117 0.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,822 1,128 1,169 1,278 1,428 1,524 1,606 1,694 1.5
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,613 7,517 8,177 10,185 12,157 13,907 15,683 17,482 3.1
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 4,753 5,323 6,898 8,214 9,475 10,747 12,007 3.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565 1,127 1,164 1,349 1,604 1,818 2,019 2,238 2.6
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 700 1,290 1,400 1,622 1,802 1,988 2,120 2,250 1.9
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 943 966 1,090 1,244 1,366 1,450 1,515 1.8
Central and South America . . . . . . 669 1,042 1,078 1,308 1,429 1,531 1,628 1,729 1.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 350 356 451 498 541 582 633 2.3
Other Central and South America . . 453 692 722 857 931 990 1,046 1,097 1.7
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,830 13,589 14,486 17,271 19,962 22,299 24,506 26,787 2.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,226 27,070 28,051 31,100 34,335 37,035 39,591 42,325 1.7
a
Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources.

Appendix A
Table A11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,597 2,615 2,555 2,636 2,650 2,676 2,767 0.2
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 291 290 304 311 319 326 333 0.6
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 254 264 275 307 332 359 391 1.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,097 2,103 2,093 2,151 2,165 2,171 2,174 0.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 914 1,016 1,028 1,005 1,049 1,070 1,084 1,097 0.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661 636 643 599 605 602 596 589 -0.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 238 240 260 285 301 315 328 1.3
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,414 6,255 6,300 6,232 6,455 6,537 6,616 6,763 0.3
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,355 666 673 764 821 875 921 965 1.5
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 783 379 379 416 441 461 473 482 1.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 572 287 294 348 379 414 448 483 2.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,979 2,037 2,425 2,839 3,248 3,655 4,110 2.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 843 880 1,156 1,312 1,544 1,785 2,062 3.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 302 303 342 415 481 541 608 2.8
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 833 854 928 1,112 1,223 1,329 1,440 2.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 780 824 960 1,052 1,159 1,250 1,340 2.0
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 400 413 482 520 563 586 611 1.6
Central and South America . . . . . . 503 734 749 866 902 954 1,007 1,067 1.4
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 274 279 320 340 366 391 422 1.7
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,558 4,697 5,497 6,134 6,800 7,420 8,092 2.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,009 10,813 10,996 11,729 12,588 13,337 14,036 14,855 1.2
a

Table A12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,194 1,193 1,256 1,279 1,262 1,245 1,231 0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 181 185 198 217 234 251 270 1.5
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 97 99 113 133 164 194 225 3.4
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 1,027 1,048 1,124 1,239 1,344 1,411 1,479 1.4
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 293 294 327 358 373 386 395 1.2
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 173 170 184 195 201 203 203 0.7
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 60 63 78 94 98 104 108 2.2
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,791 2,819 3,018 3,226 3,378 3,487 3,600 1.0
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 868 875 936 998 1,037 1,066 1,111 1.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 460 500 548 588 640 668 702 1.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 469 516 700 935 1,179 1,360 1,524 4.4
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 83 101 167 237 305 350 391 5.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 59 69 99 131 160 192 213 4.6
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 476 541 619 707 785 827 867 1.9
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 149 167 203 257 315 356 395 3.5
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 33 36 55 68 76 87 100 4.2
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,651 2,847 3,325 3,861 4,372 4,731 5,090 2.4
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,443 5,666 6,342 7,088 7,750 8,218 8,689 1.7
a

Appendix A
Table A13. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,155 2,162 2,188 2,299 2,459 2,638 2,841 1.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 151 153 166 170 174 179 181 0.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 28 35 42 44 45 48 49 1.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,644 1,250 1,232 1,296 1,287 1,251 1,218 1,181 -0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 840 853 876 880 879 887 911 0.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246 433 417 412 401 392 385 378 -0.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 190 196 221 233 232 237 257 1.1
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,032 4,423 4,435 4,568 4,680 4,809 4,970 5,163 0.6
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 804 817 818 924 956 971 1,032 0.9
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 665 422 442 437 462 487 481 523 0.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 729 381 376 381 461 469 490 509 1.2
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,503 5,070 5,624 7,059 8,383 9,480 10,667 11,848 3.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,827 4,341 5,575 6,665 7,626 8,611 9,555 3.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 765 791 908 1,058 1,177 1,286 1,417 2.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 35 35 43 43 44 43 43 0.8
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 394 386 405 466 487 508 510 1.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 43 41 76 89 99 104 111 4.1
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,231 6,380 6,943 8,449 9,967 11,127 12,355 13,605 2.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,263 10,803 11,378 13,017 14,647 15,937 17,324 18,768 2.0
a

Table A14. World Population by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Millions)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 366 430 434 455 475 495 514 533 0.8
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 294 297 311 324 338 351 366 0.8
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 32 32 34 35 37 38 39 0.8
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 103 104 110 116 121 125 128 0.8
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 497 533 536 547 555 561 565 568 0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 200 200 202 203 202 200 197 -0.1
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 128 128 128 127 124 122 118 -0.3
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 48 48 49 49 49 49 48 0.0
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,050 1,162 1,170 1,204 1,233 1,257 1,279 1,297 0.4
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 348 343 342 340 337 333 328 322 -0.2
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 145 144 140 136 132 128 124 -0.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 198 198 199 200 201 200 198 0.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,760 3,390 3,431 3,631 3,826 4,007 4,167 4,300 0.9
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,149 1,304 1,313 1,352 1,389 1,421 1,446 1,458 0.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 860 1,117 1,134 1,220 1,303 1,379 1,447 1,506 1.1
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 751 969 984 1,060 1,135 1,206 1,274 1,336 1.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 189 193 213 234 255 275 294 1.7
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 637 902 922 1,032 1,149 1,271 1,394 1,518 2.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 184 187 199 210 220 229 236 0.9
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,243 5,272 5,342 5,699 6,058 6,405 6,728 7,020 1.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,293 6,434 6,512 6,903 7,290 7,662 8,007 8,317 1.0
a
Sources: United States: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO2008
National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D030208F, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo. Other Countries: United Nations,
Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects:
The 2005 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects (February 25, 2005), web site http://esa.un.org/unpp.

Appendix B
High Economic Growth Case Projections:

High Economic Growth Case Projections
Table B1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 100.1 100.1 104.5 110.2 116.0 122.1 128.4 1.0
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0 14.0 14.3 15.8 17.1 18.4 19.7 21.2 1.6
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.9 7.5 8.7 10.0 11.5 13.1 2.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 81.0 81.4 84.5 89.1 92.3 95.8 99.3 0.8
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.6 42.6 44.8 46.9 49.3 1.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.5 22.7 22.6 22.6 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.3 0.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 9.0 9.3 10.4 12.0 13.1 14.1 15.4 2.0
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.5 239.4 240.9 251.9 267.7 281.5 296.0 311.2 1.0
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.4 29.9 30.3 33.0 36.0 38.7 40.9 43.6 1.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.0 19.6 20.4 22.6 25.4 28.1 30.5 33.0 2.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.4 101.0 109.9 139.4 171.0 201.2 233.2 265.8 3.6
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 59.9 67.1 89.0 108.6 128.2 149.3 170.4 3.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 15.5 16.2 19.7 24.1 28.2 32.3 36.4 3.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.6 30.6 34.6 37.9 41.4 2.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.6 19.6 22.2 24.5 26.8 2.5
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 9.0 9.3 11.2 13.1 15.0 16.9 19.1 2.9
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.9 207.9 221.3 266.1 314.0 360.1 406.0 453.7 2.9
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.4 447.3 462.2 518.0 581.7 641.5 701.9 764.9 2.0
a
try.
AEO2008 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Pro-

Appendix B
Table B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 48.9 49.1 50.2 53.2 55.2 57.5 60.6 0.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.1 28.0 30.3 32.1 32.6 33.8 35.1 0.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.6 24.5 24.8 25.3 27.1 30.2 32.8 35.7 1.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 9.3 9.3 9.7 9.8 10.8 11.7 12.7 1.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 10.2 12.3 13.9 15.7 17.5 18.5 2.4
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.7 120.6 121.3 127.7 136.0 144.5 153.3 162.6 1.2
OECD Europe
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 32.0 32.1 32.1 33.8 34.6 35.3 36.1 0.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 19.4 19.9 21.5 24.0 26.5 28.2 30.1 1.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 13.3 13.2 13.9 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.5 0.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.1 9.5 9.9 0.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.3 6.5 7.3 7.5 8.3 9.1 9.6 1.6
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 81.0 81.4 84.5 89.1 92.3 95.8 99.3 0.8
OECD Asia
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 17.3 17.5 17.2 18.5 19.3 20.1 20.9 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.6 5.6 6.2 6.9 7.4 7.7 8.1 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 9.2 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.9 0.6
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 4.0 4.2 4.5 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.9 2.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.0
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.6 42.6 44.8 46.9 49.3 1.0
Total OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.6 98.2 98.7 99.5 105.4 109.1 112.9 117.5 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 53.1 53.4 57.9 63.0 66.4 69.8 73.4 1.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 47.0 47.3 49.0 51.1 54.2 56.9 60.1 1.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 23.1 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.7 27.5 29.5 1.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.9 18.2 21.5 23.4 26.1 28.9 30.6 2.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.5 239.4 240.9 251.9 267.7 281.5 296.0 311.2 1.0
Non-OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 9.8 10.0 11.3 12.6 13.7 14.8 15.9 1.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 25.1 26.0 28.4 31.0 33.5 35.5 38.2 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 8.8 9.0 10.3 10.9 11.3 12.3 1.3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.6 4.6 5.5 5.7 2.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.5 1.5
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.3 49.5 50.7 55.6 61.4 66.8 71.4 76.7 1.7
Non-OECD Asia
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0 30.5 31.5 37.7 45.7 53.6 61.8 71.1 3.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.9 9.8 13.4 18.3 23.6 27.9 32.1 4.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 54.9 60.9 78.1 94.7 109.0 124.8 140.6 3.4
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 3.2 4.9 6.5 7.4 7.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.6 6.6 8.6 9.1 10.1 12.4 14.6 3.2
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.4 101.0 109.9 139.4 171.0 201.2 233.2 265.8 3.6

Table B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Continued)
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Middle East
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 11.3 12.0 14.0 15.9 18.0 20.0 22.1 2.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 9.0 10.2 11.9 13.8 15.7 17.0 18.4 2.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.8
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.6 30.6 34.6 37.9 41.4 2.4
Africa
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.8 6.0 7.0 7.8 8.7 9.3 9.9 2.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.8 3.2 3.9 5.0 6.3 7.4 8.4 4.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.3 4.2 4.5 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.2 1.6
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.0 3.2
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.7 19.6 22.2 24.5 26.8 2.5
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.0 11.2 13.0 14.1 15.3 16.6 18.1 1.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.4 4.7 6.1 7.4 8.3 9.4 10.4 3.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 3.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 6.1 6.4 7.2 8.2 9.4 10.7 12.0 2.5
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 22.5 23.4 27.9 31.6 35.3 39.0 43.0 2.5
Total Non-OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.9 68.4 70.8 83.1 96.1 109.3 122.5 137.1 2.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 50.2 53.9 63.7 75.4 87.4 97.1 107.5 2.8
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.7 69.1 75.2 93.3 112.4 127.9 144.5 161.8 3.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.3 4.2 5.1 7.3 10.2 12.6 13.9 4.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 15.9 17.2 20.9 22.8 25.3 29.3 33.5 2.7
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.9 207.9 221.3 266.2 314.0 360.1 406.0 453.6 2.9
Total World
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.4 166.6 169.4 182.6 201.5 218.4 235.3 254.6 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 103.3 107.4 121.6 138.4 153.8 166.8 180.9 2.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.2 116.1 122.5 142.3 163.5 182.0 201.4 221.9 2.4
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 27.4 27.5 29.1 32.1 35.9 40.2 43.3 1.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 33.8 35.5 42.5 46.2 51.4 58.2 64.1 2.4
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.4 447.3 462.2 518.0 581.7 641.6 702.0 764.8 2.0
try.

Appendix B
Table B3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,
High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,676 11,004 12,793 15,058 17,244 19,888 23,009 3.0
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 1,004 1,034 1,204 1,392 1,596 1,821 2,079 2.8
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 1,016 1,045 1,291 1,610 2,005 2,471 3,010 4.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 11,197 11,445 13,343 15,294 17,468 19,853 22,461 2.7
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,775 4,887 5,647 6,413 7,112 7,826 8,611 2.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,377 3,440 3,844 4,207 4,490 4,741 5,005 1.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 715 745 977 1,221 1,448 1,691 1,955 3.9
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 28,667 29,415 34,278 39,769 45,425 51,859 59,169 2.8
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,907 2,029 2,793 3,566 4,278 5,092 6,036 4.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,433 1,534 2,263 2,944 3,689 4,543 5,533 5.3
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,792 15,102 16,436 25,125 34,740 45,965 59,131 74,646 6.2
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,805 6,961 7,685 12,674 17,832 23,942 31,350 40,087 6.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,697 3,714 4,056 6,177 8,797 11,728 14,855 18,423 6.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,466 1,550 1,989 2,508 3,113 3,820 4,661 4.5
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,182 2,295 3,057 3,945 4,970 6,200 7,692 5.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,581 1,627 2,041 2,487 3,006 3,621 4,353 4.0
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,824 25,462 27,378 39,807 53,382 68,969 87,273 108,909 5.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,989 54,129 56,793 74,085 93,151 114,394 139,132 168,078 4.4
a
Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Derived from Global Insight,
Inc., World Overview, Fourth Quarter 2007 (Lexington, MA, January 2008); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy
Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), Table B4.

Table B4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.7 20.8 21.1 22.1 22.7 23.4 24.4 0.6
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 1.0
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 2.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.5 15.5 15.5 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 8.5 8.6 8.5 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.2 0.7
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 0.0
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.4 1.7
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 49.0 49.3 49.6 52.5 54.4 56.2 58.5 0.7
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 1.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 2.5
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 14.8 15.3 18.3 22.1 25.9 29.9 34.4 3.3
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 6.4 6.7 8.9 10.4 12.5 14.8 17.4 3.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.4 3.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.5 5.9 6.8 7.8 8.8 9.7 10.7 2.5
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 2.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.7 2.2
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 33.3 34.3 40.4 46.6 53.1 59.4 66.5 2.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.6 82.3 83.6 90.0 99.2 107.4 115.6 125.0 1.6
a

Appendix B
Table B5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.4 22.2 23.6 24.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 0.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.5 1.9
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.5 3.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.9 19.3 20.8 23.3 25.7 27.4 29.3 1.7
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.2 5.2 5.9 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.6 1.5
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 1.0
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.6
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 51.6 51.9 56.0 60.9 64.2 67.4 70.9 1.3
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 16.0 16.2 17.4 19.0 20.1 21.2 22.7 1.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.4 9.1 10.1 11.1 12.4 13.3 14.4 1.8
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 8.5 9.3 12.8 17.4 22.4 26.4 30.5 4.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.4 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.2 6.1 6.9 5.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.3 5.0
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.6 9.8 11.3 13.1 15.0 16.2 17.5 2.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.6 4.7 5.9 6.9 7.9 4.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 4.6
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 48.2 51.8 61.0 72.1 83.5 92.7 102.7 2.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 99.8 103.7 117.0 133.0 147.7 160.1 173.6 2.1
a

Table B6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.6 22.8 23.1 24.7 27.7 30.2 33.0 1.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.0
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.7
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 13.3 13.2 13.9 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.5 0.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 9.2 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.9 0.6
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 -0.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.2 1.6
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 47.0 47.3 49.0 51.1 54.2 56.9 60.1 1.0
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.6 5.6 6.2 1.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 4.1 4.0 4.1 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.1 1.7
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 54.9 60.9 78.1 94.7 109.0 124.8 140.6 3.4
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 41.4 46.9 61.8 75.5 87.9 100.8 113.4 3.6
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 8.4 8.6 10.1 12.0 13.6 15.1 16.9 2.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.3 4.2 4.5 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.2 1.6
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 4.5
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.7 69.1 75.2 93.3 112.4 127.9 144.5 161.8 3.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.2 116.1 122.5 142.3 163.5 182.0 201.4 221.9 2.4
a

Appendix B
Table B7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 883 880 918 934 1,024 1,113 1,206 1.3
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 789 782 797 807 888 966 1,047 1.2
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 86 87 110 116 125 135 147 2.1
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 0.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 941 929 927 930 867 904 943 0.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 392 418 449 511 575 626 683 2.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 268 278 304 329 351 379 408 1.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 124 139 144 182 224 247 275 2.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,216 2,227 2,294 2,375 2,466 2,643 2,832 1.0
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 137 140 157 196 248 311 329 3.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 125 124 136 141 183 196 203 2.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 103 106 152 303 470 615 702 7.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 48 50 66 170 281 377 447 9.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 15 16 38 68 109 143 162 9.8
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 6 —
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 14 12 14 16 16 23 24 2.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 12 10 15 19 23 24 25 3.8
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 399 399 481 691 959 1,188 1,302 4.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,615 2,626 2,775 3,066 3,424 3,831 4,133 1.8
a

Table B8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,
High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.7 8.6 9.9 11.3 11.7 2.7
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.5 6.0 2.0
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 2.0
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.3 6.5 7.3 7.5 8.2 9.1 9.6 1.6
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.9
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 8.2
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.9 18.2 21.5 23.4 26.1 28.9 30.6 2.1
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.6 6.6 8.6 9.1 10.1 12.4 14.6 3.2
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 3.3 4.0 5.2 5.4 5.9 7.3 8.8 3.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.8
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.0 3.2
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 4.9 5.8 6.8 7.8 3.2
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 15.9 17.2 20.9 22.8 25.3 29.3 33.5 2.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 33.8 35.5 42.5 46.2 51.4 58.2 64.1 2.4
a

Appendix B
Table B9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,957 5,982 6,069 6,401 6,721 7,032 7,452 0.9
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 623 628 672 718 763 811 861 1.3
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 379 398 433 504 579 660 753 2.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,101 4,373 4,383 4,543 4,800 4,966 5,093 5,223 0.7
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,541 2,148 2,174 2,225 2,353 2,437 2,531 2,644 0.8
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,009 1,242 1,230 1,204 1,231 1,248 1,260 1,272 0.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 488 500 564 634 669 715 777 1.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,396 13,480 13,565 13,942 14,776 15,465 16,126 16,933 0.9
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,376 1,669 1,696 1,803 1,962 2,090 2,177 2,337 1.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,822 1,128 1,169 1,290 1,476 1,613 1,747 1,899 2.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,613 7,517 8,177 10,365 12,675 14,785 16,992 19,286 3.5
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 4,753 5,323 7,042 8,585 10,082 11,630 13,193 3.7
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565 1,127 1,164 1,369 1,667 1,924 2,177 2,453 3.0
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 700 1,290 1,400 1,634 1,868 2,114 2,319 2,535 2.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 943 966 1,099 1,286 1,448 1,578 1,697 2.3
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 350 356 456 518 579 640 716 2.8
Other Central and South America . . 453 692 722 863 966 1,053 1,143 1,234 2.2
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,830 13,589 14,486 17,510 20,752 23,681 26,597 29,704 2.9
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,226 27,070 28,051 31,453 35,527 39,146 42,723 46,637 2.1
a

Table B10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,597 2,615 2,591 2,716 2,777 2,858 3,008 0.6
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 291 290 305 321 337 352 369 1.0
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 254 264 277 321 356 396 443 2.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,097 2,103 2,101 2,211 2,266 2,315 2,365 0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 914 1,016 1,028 1,010 1,083 1,130 1,175 1,219 0.7
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661 636 643 602 622 632 641 649 0.0
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 238 240 261 297 321 345 370 1.7
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,414 6,255 6,300 6,284 6,652 6,867 7,096 7,404 0.6
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,355 666 673 768 852 931 1,005 1,080 1.9
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 783 379 379 418 458 490 515 538 1.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 572 287 294 350 394 441 491 542 2.5
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,979 2,037 2,441 2,959 3,466 3,993 4,593 3.3
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 843 880 1,164 1,367 1,644 1,942 2,291 3.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 302 303 345 433 512 589 675 3.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 780 824 966 1,096 1,240 1,376 1,517 2.5
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 400 413 485 541 601 641 685 2.0
Central and South America . . . . . . 503 734 749 872 941 1,023 1,110 1,209 1.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 274 279 322 356 394 433 480 2.2
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,558 4,697 5,531 6,388 7,261 8,125 9,084 2.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,009 10,813 10,996 11,815 13,040 14,128 15,221 16,488 1.6
a

Appendix B
Table B11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,194 1,193 1,276 1,325 1,296 1,297 1,299 0.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 181 185 200 222 244 268 296 1.9
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 97 99 115 138 175 212 255 3.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 1,027 1,048 1,132 1,267 1,396 1,491 1,591 1.7
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 293 294 329 366 388 409 428 1.5
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 173 170 185 198 208 212 216 1.0
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 60 63 79 97 103 111 119 2.6
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,791 2,819 3,051 3,318 3,499 3,677 3,869 1.3
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 868 875 944 1,028 1,091 1,150 1,231 1.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 460 500 554 606 676 724 787 1.8
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 469 516 710 965 1,244 1,470 1,694 4.9
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 83 101 169 243 318 372 422 5.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 59 69 101 137 170 207 234 5.0
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 327 345 439 585 755 892 1,038 4.5
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 476 541 626 727 828 896 971 2.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 149 167 205 266 334 389 446 4.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 33 36 56 70 80 94 112 4.6
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,651 2,847 3,360 3,980 4,611 5,123 5,676 2.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,443 5,666 6,411 7,299 8,110 8,800 9,545 2.1
a

Table B12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,155 2,162 2,190 2,348 2,636 2,865 3,133 1.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 151 153 168 174 181 191 197 1.0
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 28 35 42 46 48 52 55 1.8
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,644 1,250 1,232 1,309 1,322 1,303 1,287 1,267 0.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 840 853 886 904 919 947 997 0.6
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246 433 417 417 411 408 407 407 -0.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 190 196 224 240 245 258 288 1.5
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,032 4,423 4,435 4,595 4,794 5,087 5,342 5,648 1.0
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 804 817 826 951 1,005 1,045 1,138 1.3
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 665 422 442 440 475 509 513 568 1.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 729 381 376 386 476 496 532 570 1.7
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,503 5,070 5,624 7,215 8,751 10,075 11,529 12,999 3.4
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,827 4,341 5,709 6,975 8,120 9,316 10,479 3.6
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 765 791 923 1,097 1,242 1,381 1,544 2.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 35 35 43 45 46 47 48 1.2
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 394 386 409 480 513 548 567 1.6
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 43 41 77 92 104 113 124 4.5
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,231 6,380 6,943 8,619 10,383 11,808 13,348 14,944 3.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,263 10,803 11,378 13,214 15,176 16,896 18,690 20,592 2.4
a

Appendix C
Low Economic Growth Case Projections:

Low Economic Growth Case Projections
Table C1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 100.1 100.1 102.2 104.2 105.8 107.4 108.2 0.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0 14.0 14.3 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.6 0.8
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.8 9.5 10.2 1.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 81.0 81.4 83.2 84.6 84.9 85.4 85.4 0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.1 40.3 40.7 40.8 41.0 0.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.5 22.7 22.6 22.3 22.3 22.2 21.9 21.7 -0.2
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 9.0 9.3 10.2 11.2 11.7 11.9 12.3 1.1
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.5 239.4 240.9 247.4 253.3 257.0 260.3 262.5 0.3
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.4 29.9 30.3 32.4 33.9 34.9 35.4 36.0 0.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.0 19.6 20.4 22.2 23.8 25.1 25.7 26.3 1.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.4 101.0 109.9 135.0 157.8 178.5 198.9 218.2 2.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 59.9 67.1 85.7 99.7 113.6 127.7 141.3 3.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 15.5 16.2 19.1 22.3 25.2 27.8 30.3 2.5
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.2 28.5 30.7 31.8 32.7 1.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.4 18.3 19.7 20.6 21.3 1.6
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 9.0 9.3 11.0 12.2 13.3 14.2 15.1 2.0
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.9 207.9 221.3 259.7 291.6 320.2 345.2 368.7 2.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.4 447.3 462.2 507.1 544.9 577.2 605.6 631.3 1.3
a
try.
AEO2008 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Pro-

Appendix C
Table C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 48.9 49.1 48.8 49.6 49.6 49.6 50.1 0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.1 28.0 29.4 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.3 0.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.6 24.5 24.8 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.9 29.3 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 9.3 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.3 10.4 10.2 0.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 10.2 12.1 13.3 14.6 15.8 16.1 1.9
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.7 120.6 121.3 125.1 128.4 131.4 134.1 136.1 0.5
OECD Europe
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 32.0 32.1 31.8 32.0 31.6 31.1 30.6 -0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 19.4 19.9 21.1 23.0 24.5 25.3 26.1 1.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 13.3 13.2 13.7 13.4 12.8 12.3 11.7 -0.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.9 9.8 9.5 9.3 8.4 8.5 8.7 -0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.3 6.5 7.1 7.1 7.6 8.1 8.4 1.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 81.0 81.4 83.2 84.6 84.9 85.4 85.5 0.2
OECD Asia
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 17.3 17.5 17.1 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.9 -0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.6 5.6 6.1 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.9 0.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.1 -0.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.8 1.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.4
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.1 40.3 40.7 40.8 41.0 0.3
Total OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.6 98.2 98.7 97.7 98.9 98.5 97.8 97.6 0.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 53.1 53.4 56.6 59.4 61.5 62.7 63.3 0.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 47.0 47.3 48.4 48.7 48.8 49.3 50.1 0.2
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 23.1 23.2 23.6 23.9 24.0 24.5 24.7 0.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.9 18.2 21.1 22.4 24.2 26.0 26.8 1.5
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.5 239.4 240.9 247.4 253.3 257.0 260.3 262.5 0.3
Non-OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 9.8 10.0 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.7 1.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 25.1 26.0 27.8 29.2 30.2 30.4 30.9 0.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 8.8 8.8 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.1 0.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.4 4.2 4.8 4.8 2.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.8
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.3 49.5 50.7 54.6 57.7 60.0 61.1 62.3 0.8
Non-OECD Asia
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0 30.5 31.5 37.2 42.1 47.1 51.8 57.0 2.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.9 9.8 13.1 17.2 21.2 23.9 26.0 4.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 54.9 60.9 74.8 87.0 96.6 106.9 116.9 2.6
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.5 5.6 6.2 7.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.6 6.6 8.3 8.5 9.1 10.7 12.2 2.5
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.4 101.0 109.9 135.0 157.8 178.5 198.9 218.2 2.8

Table C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Continued)
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Middle East
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 11.3 12.0 13.9 14.7 15.8 16.5 17.2 1.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 9.0 10.2 11.6 13.0 14.1 14.5 14.7 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.2 28.5 30.7 31.8 32.8 1.4
Africa
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.8 6.0 6.9 7.2 7.6 7.7 7.9 1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.7 5.6 6.2 6.6 3.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.2
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.4 18.3 19.8 20.7 21.3 1.6
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.0 11.2 12.9 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 0.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.4 4.7 6.0 6.9 7.5 7.9 8.3 2.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.6
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 2.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.7 8.5 9.2 9.7 1.7
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 22.5 23.4 27.4 29.5 31.3 32.8 34.2 1.5
Total Non-OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.9 68.4 70.8 82.1 88.6 96.0 102.3 108.9 1.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 50.2 53.9 62.3 71.0 78.5 82.8 86.5 1.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.7 69.1 75.2 89.8 103.7 113.6 123.9 134.2 2.3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.3 4.2 5.0 6.9 9.2 11.0 11.6 4.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 15.9 17.2 20.5 21.4 22.8 25.3 27.5 1.9
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.9 207.9 221.3 259.7 291.6 320.2 345.3 368.7 2.1
Total World
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.4 166.6 169.4 179.8 187.5 194.5 200.1 206.5 0.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 103.3 107.4 118.9 130.3 140.0 145.5 149.9 1.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.2 116.1 122.5 138.2 152.4 162.4 173.2 184.3 1.6
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 27.4 27.5 28.6 30.8 33.2 35.5 36.3 1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 33.8 35.5 41.6 43.8 47.1 51.3 54.3 1.7
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.4 447.3 462.2 507.1 544.9 577.2 605.6 631.3 1.3
try.

Appendix C
Table C3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,
Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,676 11,004 12,106 13,350 14,747 16,039 17,432 1.9
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 1,004 1,034 1,170 1,288 1,405 1,528 1,660 1.9
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 1,016 1,045 1,255 1,491 1,770 2,078 2,412 3.4
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 11,197 11,445 12,958 14,145 15,383 16,648 17,934 1.8
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,775 4,887 5,484 5,931 6,262 6,559 6,871 1.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,377 3,440 3,732 3,889 3,949 3,967 3,985 0.6
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 715 745 950 1,131 1,278 1,421 1,565 3.0
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 28,667 29,415 32,972 36,205 39,567 42,852 46,310 1.8
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,907 2,029 2,715 3,304 3,777 4,282 4,836 3.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,433 1,534 2,200 2,730 3,259 3,825 4,439 4.3
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,792 15,102 16,436 24,438 32,236 40,674 49,884 60,025 5.3
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,805 6,961 7,685 12,332 16,554 21,199 26,468 32,264 5.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,697 3,714 4,056 6,008 8,165 10,381 12,533 14,814 5.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,466 1,550 1,933 2,323 2,748 3,213 3,736 3.6
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,182 2,295 2,971 3,656 4,390 5,219 6,171 4.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,581 1,627 1,984 2,302 2,651 3,043 3,486 3.1
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,824 25,462 27,378 38,708 49,508 60,985 73,561 87,493 4.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,989 54,129 56,793 71,680 85,713 100,552 116,413 133,802 3.5
a

Table C4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.7 20.8 20.4 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.3 -0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.2
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 1.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.0 14.8 -0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 8.5 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 -0.1
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 -0.7
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 49.0 49.3 48.7 49.3 49.1 48.6 48.5 -0.1
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 1.5
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 14.8 15.3 18.0 20.4 22.8 25.1 27.6 2.4
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 6.4 6.7 8.7 9.6 11.0 12.5 14.1 3.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 2.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.5 5.9 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.4 1.5
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 1.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 1.1
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 33.3 34.3 39.8 43.0 46.6 49.6 52.9 1.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.6 82.3 83.6 88.6 92.3 95.6 98.3 101.3 0.8
a

Appendix C
Table C5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.4 22.2 22.8 22.7 22.3 22.0 21.3 -0.2
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 1.2
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 2.8
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.9 19.3 20.5 22.3 23.8 24.6 25.3 1.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.2 5.2 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.5 0.9
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 51.6 51.9 54.7 57.4 59.4 60.6 61.2 0.7
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 16.0 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.5 0.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.4 9.1 9.9 10.4 11.1 11.3 11.5 0.9
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 8.5 9.3 12.5 16.3 20.1 22.6 24.7 4.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.4 1.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.4 5.9 5.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.6 9.8 11.1 12.4 13.5 13.8 14.0 1.5
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.4 5.3 5.8 6.2 3.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 3.7
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 48.2 51.8 59.7 67.9 75.0 79.1 82.6 1.9
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 99.8 103.7 114.4 125.3 134.5 139.7 143.8 1.3
a

Table C6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.7 24.5 25.6 27.0 0.7
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.3
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 13.3 13.2 13.6 13.3 12.8 12.3 11.7 -0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.1 -0.1
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 -0.7
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 0.7
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 47.0 47.3 48.4 48.7 48.8 49.3 50.1 0.2
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.3 0.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 0.8
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 54.9 60.9 74.8 87.0 96.6 106.9 116.9 2.6
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 41.4 46.9 59.0 69.0 77.6 86.2 94.3 2.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 8.4 8.6 9.8 11.2 12.2 13.1 14.2 2.0
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 0.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 3.6
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.7 69.1 75.2 89.8 103.7 113.6 123.9 134.2 2.3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.2 116.1 122.5 138.2 152.4 162.4 173.2 184.3 1.6
a

Appendix C
Table C7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 789 782 797 807 854 860 837 0.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 86 87 109 111 115 120 124 1.4
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 9 10 11 10 10 10 9 -0.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 941 929 905 879 797 811 824 -0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 392 418 439 485 526 553 580 1.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 268 278 298 313 326 344 361 1.0
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 124 139 141 171 200 209 218 1.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,216 2,227 2,261 2,292 2,302 2,352 2,373 0.3
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 137 140 154 185 226 276 284 2.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 125 124 132 132 162 164 159 1.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 103 106 148 284 423 534 589 7.1
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 48 50 65 158 253 327 377 8.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 15 16 37 64 99 126 137 9.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 6 6 5 5 —
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 14 12 14 15 15 20 19 1.8
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 12 10 15 18 21 21 20 2.9
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 399 399 471 648 865 1,031 1,087 4.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,615 2,626 2,731 2,940 3,167 3,383 3,460 1.1
a

Table C8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,
Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.5 8.3 9.3 10.3 10.5 2.2
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 1.3
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.3 6.5 7.1 7.1 7.6 8.1 8.4 1.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 7.2
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.9 18.2 21.1 22.4 24.2 26.0 26.8 1.5
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.6 6.6 8.3 8.5 9.1 10.7 12.2 2.5
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 3.3 4.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 6.4 7.4 2.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.2
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.8 6.3 2.3
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 15.9 17.2 20.4 21.4 22.9 25.3 27.6 1.9
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 33.8 35.5 41.6 43.8 47.1 51.4 54.3 1.7
a

Appendix C
Table C9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,957 5,982 5,953 6,046 6,077 6,141 6,264 0.2
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 623 628 665 679 694 705 714 0.5
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 379 398 425 465 507 548 588 1.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,101 4,373 4,383 4,481 4,559 4,566 4,528 4,479 0.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,541 2,148 2,174 2,193 2,224 2,213 2,198 2,190 0.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,009 1,242 1,230 1,188 1,172 1,145 1,113 1,079 -0.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 488 500 555 592 596 604 619 0.9
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,396 13,480 13,565 13,718 13,973 14,057 14,120 14,235 0.2
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,376 1,669 1,696 1,774 1,844 1,884 1,875 1,920 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,822 1,128 1,169 1,267 1,383 1,439 1,477 1,512 1.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,613 7,517 8,177 10,016 11,671 13,094 14,484 15,855 2.7
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 4,753 5,323 6,763 7,869 8,915 9,938 10,931 2.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565 1,127 1,164 1,329 1,546 1,719 1,875 2,043 2.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 700 1,290 1,400 1,610 1,739 1,870 1,940 1,999 1.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 943 966 1,082 1,202 1,289 1,333 1,354 1.4
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 350 356 448 478 505 529 559 1.8
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,830 13,589 14,486 17,045 19,215 21,011 22,597 24,176 2.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,226 27,070 28,051 30,764 33,188 35,068 36,717 38,411 1.3
a

Table C10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,597 2,615 2,523 2,555 2,529 2,505 2,530 -0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 291 290 303 301 302 301 302 0.2
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 254 264 272 294 310 326 345 1.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,097 2,103 2,084 2,093 2,070 2,038 2,003 -0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 914 1,016 1,028 1,001 1,017 1,013 1,002 990 -0.2
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661 636 643 597 590 574 555 536 -0.7
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 238 240 258 274 282 287 292 0.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,414 6,255 6,300 6,183 6,260 6,224 6,173 6,170 -0.1
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 783 379 379 414 426 434 435 433 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 572 287 294 346 365 388 410 430 1.5
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,979 2,037 2,410 2,725 3,047 3,349 3,680 2.4
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 843 880 1,148 1,260 1,453 1,642 1,856 3.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 302 303 338 399 452 498 547 2.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 780 824 954 1,010 1,083 1,137 1,184 1.5
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 400 413 480 501 528 536 545 1.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 274 279 318 326 341 354 370 1.1
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,558 4,697 5,464 5,891 6,372 6,782 7,215 1.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,009 10,813 10,996 11,648 12,151 12,596 12,955 13,385 0.8
a

Appendix C
Table C11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,194 1,193 1,234 1,226 1,209 1,191 1,155 -0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 181 185 197 212 224 236 247 1.2
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 97 99 112 128 155 177 199 2.8
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 1,027 1,048 1,115 1,212 1,295 1,337 1,375 1.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 293 294 324 350 359 365 366 0.9
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 173 170 182 191 195 194 191 0.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 60 63 78 92 94 97 98 1.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,791 2,819 2,981 3,129 3,242 3,306 3,341 0.7
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 868 875 926 969 985 989 1,004 0.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 460 500 543 571 607 616 628 0.9
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 469 516 692 906 1,118 1,259 1,373 4.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 83 101 165 231 293 331 362 5.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 59 69 98 126 151 178 195 4.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 476 541 613 686 744 763 776 1.5
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 149 167 201 249 298 327 350 3.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 33 36 54 66 72 80 89 3.7
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,651 2,847 3,290 3,746 4,145 4,372 4,568 1.9
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,443 5,666 6,271 6,875 7,387 7,678 7,909 1.3
a

Table C12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,155 2,162 2,185 2,253 2,327 2,433 2,567 0.7
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 151 153 165 166 168 168 166 0.3
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 28 35 41 43 43 45 44 0.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,644 1,250 1,232 1,282 1,254 1,201 1,153 1,101 -0.4
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 840 853 868 857 841 831 834 -0.1
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246 433 417 409 391 377 364 352 -0.7
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 190 196 219 226 220 219 230 0.6
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,032 4,423 4,435 4,541 4,573 4,579 4,629 4,711 0.2
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 665 422 442 433 449 465 451 483 0.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 729 381 376 378 447 444 451 454 0.8
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,503 5,070 5,624 6,914 8,040 8,928 9,876 10,802 2.6
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,827 4,341 5,450 6,378 7,170 7,965 8,713 2.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 765 791 893 1,021 1,116 1,199 1,300 2.0
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 35 35 42 42 42 40 39 0.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 394 386 401 452 463 470 460 0.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 43 41 75 87 93 96 100 3.6
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,231 6,380 6,943 8,291 9,577 10,494 11,443 12,393 2.3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,263 10,803 11,378 12,833 14,150 15,073 16,071 17,104 1.6
a

Appendix D
High Price Case Projections:

High Price Case Projections
Table D1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 100.1 100.1 102.9 105.4 108.8 112.8 117.5 0.6
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0 14.0 14.3 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.9 18.8 1.1
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.9 9.8 10.8 1.8
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 81.0 81.4 83.6 84.4 85.2 87.2 88.9 0.4
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.2 39.9 40.5 41.5 42.6 0.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.5 22.7 22.6 22.3 22.1 21.9 22.1 22.2 -0.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 9.0 9.3 10.3 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.8 1.3
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.5 239.4 240.9 248.6 254.1 260.4 269.3 278.6 0.6
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.4 29.9 30.3 32.5 34.2 35.8 37.1 38.5 1.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.0 19.6 20.4 22.3 23.9 25.7 27.2 28.5 1.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.4 101.0 109.9 136.7 159.4 181.3 205.3 227.9 3.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 59.9 67.1 87.1 101.7 116.4 132.7 147.8 3.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 15.5 16.2 19.2 22.5 25.2 28.3 30.9 2.6
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.3 29.2 31.5 33.2 34.9 1.7
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.4 18.3 20.0 21.5 22.9 1.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 9.0 9.3 11.1 12.3 13.5 14.7 16.0 2.2
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.9 207.9 221.3 261.5 294.5 325.8 358.2 389.1 2.3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.4 447.3 462.2 510.2 548.5 586.3 627.5 667.6 1.5
a
try.
AEO2008 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2008.D031808A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Pro-

Appendix D
Table D2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Price Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 48.9 49.1 49.1 49.2 49.3 49.9 51.4 0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.1 28.0 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.9 31.1 0.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.6 24.5 24.8 25.3 26.9 29.2 31.3 34.6 1.3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 9.3 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.8 11.7 12.5 1.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 10.2 12.3 13.9 15.4 16.8 17.5 2.2
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.7 120.6 121.3 125.8 129.7 134.7 140.6 147.1 0.8
OECD Europe
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 32.0 32.1 31.7 30.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 -0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 19.4 19.9 20.8 22.5 24.2 25.2 26.1 1.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 13.3 13.2 13.8 13.6 13.2 12.8 12.4 -0.2
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.9 9.8 10.0 10.3 9.9 10.5 11.2 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.3 6.5 7.3 7.4 8.1 8.9 9.5 1.5
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 81.0 81.4 83.6 84.4 85.2 87.2 88.9 0.4
OECD Asia
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 17.3 17.5 17.1 16.5 16.2 16.3 16.3 -0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.6 5.6 6.1 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.9 0.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.9 0.2
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 4.0 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.4 7.0 2.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.8
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.2 39.9 40.5 41.5 42.6 0.4
Total OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.6 98.2 98.7 97.8 96.3 95.3 95.9 97.4 -0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 53.1 53.4 56.4 58.8 60.8 63.0 64.2 0.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 47.0 47.3 48.7 50.1 51.9 53.8 56.9 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 23.1 23.2 24.3 25.4 26.6 28.7 30.7 1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.9 18.2 21.5 23.4 25.8 28.0 29.4 1.9
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.5 239.4 240.9 248.6 254.1 260.4 269.3 278.6 0.6
Non-OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 9.8 10.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.3 12.8 1.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 25.1 26.0 27.7 29.3 30.8 31.8 33.1 1.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 8.8 8.9 10.0 10.3 10.4 11.1 0.9
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.8 2.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 1.3
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.3 49.5 50.7 54.7 58.1 61.5 64.2 67.0 1.1
Non-OECD Asia
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0 30.5 31.5 37.1 40.0 43.4 47.7 52.0 2.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.9 9.8 13.0 17.1 21.4 24.7 27.6 4.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 54.9 60.9 76.2 89.8 101.2 114.0 126.4 3.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.8 3.5 5.4 7.0 7.9 8.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.6 6.6 8.5 9.0 9.9 12.0 14.0 3.0
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.4 101.0 109.9 136.7 159.4 181.3 205.3 227.9 3.0

Table D2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Price Case, 1990-2030 (Continued)
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Middle East
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 11.3 12.0 13.9 15.0 15.9 16.9 17.9 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 9.0 10.2 11.6 13.3 14.7 15.4 16.0 1.8
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.6
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.3 29.2 31.5 33.2 34.9 1.7
Africa
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.8 6.0 6.9 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.9 1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.7 5.8 6.5 7.2 3.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 1.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 4.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.9
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.4 18.3 20.0 21.5 22.9 1.9
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.0 11.2 12.7 12.5 12.8 13.3 14.0 0.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.4 4.7 5.9 6.8 7.5 8.2 8.7 2.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 3.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 6.1 6.4 7.2 8.1 9.2 10.3 11.3 2.3
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 22.5 23.4 27.4 29.4 31.6 33.9 36.3 1.8
Total Non-OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.9 68.4 70.8 81.9 85.9 91.2 97.8 104.7 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 50.2 53.9 62.1 71.3 80.1 86.6 92.7 2.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.7 69.1 75.2 91.3 106.9 119.0 132.2 145.3 2.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.3 4.2 5.4 7.8 10.8 13.3 14.6 5.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 15.9 17.2 20.9 22.5 24.8 28.3 31.8 2.5
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.9 207.9 221.3 261.5 294.5 325.8 358.2 389.1 2.3
Total World
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.4 166.6 169.4 179.7 182.2 186.4 193.7 202.1 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 103.3 107.4 118.5 130.1 141.0 149.6 156.8 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.2 116.1 122.5 139.9 157.1 170.9 185.9 202.2 2.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 27.4 27.5 29.7 33.2 37.4 42.0 45.2 2.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 33.8 35.5 42.4 45.9 50.6 56.3 61.3 2.2
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.4 447.3 462.2 510.2 548.5 586.3 627.5 667.6 1.5
try.

Appendix D
Table D3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,
High Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,676 11,004 12,426 14,060 15,947 18,047 20,284 2.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 1,004 1,034 1,187 1,341 1,497 1,669 1,858 2.4
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 1,016 1,045 1,272 1,541 1,873 2,261 2,693 3.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 11,197 11,445 13,140 14,626 16,240 18,031 20,007 2.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,775 4,887 5,559 6,113 6,589 7,117 7,666 1.8
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,377 3,440 3,783 4,009 4,158 4,306 4,448 1.0
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 715 745 962 1,157 1,332 1,536 1,742 3.5
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 28,667 29,415 33,584 37,681 42,146 47,125 52,508 2.3
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,907 2,029 2,757 3,460 4,050 4,695 5,420 4.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,433 1,534 2,229 2,820 3,446 4,154 4,959 4.8
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,792 15,102 16,436 24,750 33,027 42,474 53,741 66,773 5.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,805 6,961 7,685 12,488 16,940 22,206 28,625 35,869 6.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,697 3,714 4,056 6,084 8,345 10,697 13,369 16,465 5.8
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,466 1,550 1,968 2,501 2,987 3,527 4,182 4.1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,182 2,295 3,012 3,777 4,625 5,644 6,874 4.5
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,581 1,627 2,011 2,382 2,807 3,309 3,888 3.5
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,824 25,462 27,378 39,226 50,983 64,014 79,478 97,420 5.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,989 54,129 56,793 72,810 88,664 106,160 126,603 149,928 4.0
a

Table D4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.7 20.8 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.6 21.1 0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 0.1
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 1.0
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.5 15.5 15.3 14.8 14.4 14.4 14.4 -0.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 8.5 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.9 8.0 8.0 -0.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.3 5.4 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 -0.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 0.6
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 49.0 49.3 48.8 48.0 47.5 47.8 48.5 -0.1
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.1 1.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 14.8 15.3 18.0 19.4 21.0 23.1 25.2 2.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 6.4 6.7 8.7 9.2 10.1 11.3 12.5 2.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 1.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.5 5.9 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.7 1.6
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 1.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.0
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 33.3 34.3 39.7 41.7 44.2 47.5 50.8 1.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.6 82.3 83.6 88.6 89.7 91.7 95.2 99.3 0.7
a

Appendix D
Table D5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.4 22.2 23.0 23.0 22.3 22.4 21.9 -0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.6 1.2
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.9 3.2
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.9 19.3 20.2 21.9 23.5 24.5 25.4 1.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.2 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.5 0.9
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 0.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 51.6 51.9 54.5 57.1 59.0 61.1 62.3 0.7
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 16.0 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.7 0.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.4 9.1 9.9 10.4 11.3 11.8 12.4 1.2
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 8.5 9.3 12.4 16.2 20.3 23.5 26.3 4.2
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.4 6.0 5.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.3 3.6 4.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.6 9.8 11.1 12.7 14.0 14.7 15.3 1.8
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.4 5.4 6.1 6.7 3.3
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 3.5
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 48.2 51.8 59.5 68.2 76.6 82.8 88.5 2.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 99.8 103.7 114.0 125.3 135.7 143.9 150.8 1.5
a

Table D6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.6 22.8 23.0 24.6 26.8 28.8 32.1 1.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.6
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 13.3 13.2 13.8 13.6 13.2 12.8 12.4 -0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.9 0.2
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 -0.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.1
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 47.0 47.3 48.7 50.1 51.9 53.8 56.9 0.7
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.7 0.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 1.2
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 54.9 60.9 76.2 89.8 101.2 114.0 126.4 3.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 41.4 46.9 60.2 71.3 81.4 92.0 101.8 3.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 8.4 8.6 9.9 11.5 12.7 13.9 15.3 2.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 1.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 4.0
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.7 69.1 75.2 91.3 106.9 119.0 132.2 145.3 2.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.2 116.1 122.5 139.9 157.1 170.9 185.9 202.2 2.0
a

Appendix D
Table D7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 883 880 921 938 1,030 1,114 1,188 1.2
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 789 782 797 807 888 960 1,022 1.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 86 87 112 118 127 137 148 2.1
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 9 10 12 14 15 17 18 2.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 941 929 953 977 940 1,001 1,062 0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 392 418 453 518 583 635 692 2.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 268 278 307 334 359 389 422 1.7
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 124 139 146 184 225 245 269 2.7
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,216 2,227 2,326 2,432 2,553 2,750 2,942 1.1
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 137 140 158 198 251 316 336 3.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 125 124 137 142 183 194 198 1.9
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 103 106 171 336 511 660 751 8.1
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 48 50 80 193 311 409 483 9.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 15 16 43 76 121 156 176 10.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 8 10 11 12 —
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 14 12 17 22 25 34 37 4.5
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 12 10 15 19 23 24 25 3.7
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 399 399 506 735 1,015 1,252 1,372 5.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,615 2,626 2,832 3,167 3,568 4,002 4,313 2.0
a

Table D8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Price Case,
1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.6 8.7 9.8 10.7 11.1 2.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.8 1.8
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.7
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.3 6.5 7.3 7.4 8.1 8.9 9.5 1.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.8
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 7.9
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.9 18.2 21.5 23.4 25.8 28.0 29.4 1.9
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.3
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.6 6.6 8.5 9.0 9.9 12.0 14.0 3.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 3.3 4.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 7.1 8.5 3.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.6
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.6
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.5 7.3 3.0
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 15.9 17.2 20.9 22.5 24.8 28.3 31.8 2.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 33.8 35.5 42.4 45.9 50.6 56.3 61.3 2.2
a

Appendix D
Table D9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,957 5,982 5,983 6,102 6,259 6,451 6,799 0.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 623 628 660 666 681 705 725 0.6
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 379 398 423 461 507 558 609 1.7
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,101 4,373 4,383 4,469 4,474 4,468 4,485 4,496 0.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,541 2,148 2,174 2,195 2,186 2,172 2,195 2,223 0.1
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,009 1,242 1,230 1,186 1,142 1,109 1,093 1,072 -0.6
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 488 500 558 582 586 604 631 0.9
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,396 13,480 13,565 13,731 13,887 14,088 14,394 14,852 0.4
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,376 1,669 1,696 1,773 1,853 1,913 1,940 2,022 0.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,822 1,128 1,169 1,268 1,383 1,460 1,538 1,619 1.3
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,613 7,517 8,177 10,134 11,791 13,290 14,924 16,504 2.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 4,753 5,323 6,868 8,024 9,138 10,319 11,424 3.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565 1,127 1,164 1,336 1,550 1,714 1,893 2,068 2.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 700 1,290 1,400 1,615 1,783 1,915 2,015 2,119 1.7
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 943 966 1,083 1,199 1,296 1,375 1,436 1.6
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 350 356 446 467 494 520 551 1.8
Other Central and South America . . 453 692 722 840 877 913 966 1,012 1.4
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,830 13,589 14,486 17,158 19,354 21,280 23,277 25,264 2.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,226 27,070 28,051 30,890 33,241 35,368 37,671 40,116 1.4
a

Table D10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,597 2,615 2,538 2,534 2,516 2,510 2,582 -0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 291 290 302 289 287 291 297 0.1
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 254 264 270 287 302 321 341 1.0
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,097 2,103 2,078 2,005 1,952 1,948 1,949 -0.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 914 1,016 1,028 999 966 947 952 956 -0.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661 636 643 594 556 531 522 512 -0.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 238 240 260 261 265 273 280 0.6
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,414 6,255 6,300 6,187 6,082 6,004 6,023 6,125 -0.1
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 783 379 379 413 416 421 428 433 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 572 287 294 346 354 376 407 438 1.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,979 2,037 2,404 2,589 2,806 3,085 3,363 2.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 843 880 1,145 1,204 1,329 1,487 1,647 2.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 302 303 334 376 403 442 467 1.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 780 824 959 1,035 1,097 1,160 1,232 1.6
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 400 413 478 485 507 526 549 1.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 274 279 317 316 328 341 357 1.0
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,558 4,697 5,449 5,713 6,060 6,497 6,950 1.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,009 10,813 10,996 11,637 11,795 12,064 12,520 13,075 0.7
a

Appendix D
Table D11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,194 1,193 1,245 1,219 1,183 1,189 1,160 -0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 181 185 193 207 222 237 250 1.2
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 97 99 112 130 160 189 219 3.2
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 1,027 1,048 1,098 1,188 1,276 1,330 1,379 1.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 293 294 321 345 355 363 366 0.9
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 173 170 180 188 191 190 186 0.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 60 63 77 90 92 96 98 1.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,791 2,819 2,968 3,089 3,195 3,309 3,375 0.7
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 868 875 924 975 1,008 1,034 1,070 0.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 460 500 541 570 619 646 677 1.2
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 469 516 688 902 1,130 1,305 1,460 4.2
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 83 101 162 225 287 330 366 5.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 59 69 97 124 149 179 199 4.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 476 541 614 704 775 811 845 1.8
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 149 167 200 250 306 345 381 3.3
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 33 36 53 64 69 77 86 3.5
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,651 2,847 3,278 3,763 4,231 4,572 4,891 2.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,443 5,666 6,247 6,852 7,426 7,882 8,266 1.5
a

Table D12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,155 2,162 2,188 2,337 2,548 2,739 3,045 1.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 151 153 166 169 172 176 178 0.6
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 28 35 42 44 45 48 48 1.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,644 1,250 1,232 1,293 1,280 1,240 1,207 1,168 -0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 840 853 876 875 871 879 901 0.2
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246 433 417 412 398 387 381 373 -0.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 190 196 221 231 229 235 253 1.0
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,032 4,423 4,435 4,564 4,704 4,877 5,049 5,341 0.7
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 665 422 442 437 462 485 478 519 0.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 729 381 376 381 459 465 485 503 1.2
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,503 5,070 5,624 7,041 8,300 9,353 10,534 11,681 3.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,827 4,341 5,560 6,594 7,522 8,502 9,412 3.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 765 791 906 1,050 1,162 1,271 1,402 2.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 35 35 43 44 44 43 43 0.8
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 394 386 405 464 484 504 506 1.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 43 41 76 88 97 102 109 4.0
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,231 6,380 6,943 8,431 9,877 10,989 12,208 13,422 2.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,263 10,803 11,378 12,995 14,582 15,866 17,257 18,763 2.0
a

Appendix E
Low Price Case Projections:

Low Price Case Projections
Table E1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 100.1 100.1 103.6 108.5 112.4 116.0 119.4 0.7
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0 14.0 14.3 15.7 16.9 17.9 18.9 19.9 1.3
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.9 7.4 8.6 9.7 10.9 12.1 2.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 81.0 81.4 84.1 88.3 90.8 93.2 95.2 0.6
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.4 42.1 43.9 45.2 46.6 0.8
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.5 22.7 22.6 22.4 23.3 23.8 24.1 24.3 0.3
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 9.0 9.3 10.4 11.8 12.8 13.4 14.3 1.7
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.5 239.4 240.9 250.2 264.4 274.8 284.2 293.2 0.8
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.4 29.9 30.3 32.8 35.5 37.5 38.9 40.9 1.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.0 19.6 20.4 22.5 25.0 27.2 28.8 30.5 1.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.4 101.0 109.9 137.1 166.5 194.0 220.5 247.0 3.3
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 59.9 67.1 87.3 105.2 123.1 140.9 158.5 3.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 15.5 16.2 19.3 23.5 27.3 30.6 34.0 3.0
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.5 29.6 33.2 35.8 38.3 2.1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.5 19.2 21.5 23.2 24.7 2.2
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 9.0 9.3 11.1 12.8 14.5 15.9 17.6 2.6
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.9 207.9 221.3 263.1 307.0 347.8 384.2 421.1 2.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.4 447.3 462.2 513.3 571.4 622.6 668.4 714.3 1.8
a
try.
AEO2008 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projec-
tions Plus (2008).

Appendix E
Table E2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 48.9 49.1 49.5 53.0 55.2 56.8 59.3 0.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.1 28.0 30.2 32.0 33.5 34.8 35.3 0.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.6 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.9 26.4 27.6 29.6 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 9.3 9.3 9.7 9.8 10.4 10.5 10.3 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 10.2 12.1 13.4 15.0 16.4 17.0 2.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.7 120.6 121.3 126.7 134.2 140.4 146.1 151.7 0.9
OECD Europe
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 32.0 32.1 32.0 34.0 35.0 35.6 36.0 0.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 19.4 19.9 21.5 24.0 26.2 27.5 29.0 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 13.3 13.2 13.6 13.4 12.9 12.4 11.9 -0.4
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 -0.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.3 6.5 7.2 7.3 7.9 8.6 9.0 1.3
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 81.0 81.4 84.1 88.3 90.8 93.2 95.2 0.6
OECD Asia
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 17.3 17.5 17.3 18.7 19.6 20.2 20.7 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.6 5.6 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.7 7.9 1.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.3 0.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 4.0 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.5 5.9 6.3 1.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.7
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.4 42.1 43.9 45.2 46.6 0.8
Total OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.6 98.2 98.7 98.8 105.8 109.9 112.6 116.0 0.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 53.1 53.4 58.0 63.1 67.1 70.0 72.3 1.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 47.0 47.3 48.3 48.7 48.5 49.2 50.9 0.3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 23.1 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.6 25.4 26.0 0.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.9 18.2 21.2 22.7 25.0 27.2 28.4 1.8
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.5 239.4 240.9 250.2 264.4 274.8 284.2 293.2 0.8
Non-OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 9.8 10.0 11.3 12.6 13.7 14.7 15.6 1.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 25.1 26.0 28.4 30.8 32.8 34.0 35.8 1.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 8.8 8.7 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.6 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.2 2.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 1.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.3 49.5 50.7 55.3 60.5 64.7 67.8 71.3 1.4
Non-OECD Asia
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0 30.5 31.5 37.7 46.0 54.1 61.2 69.3 3.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.9 9.8 13.7 18.8 23.9 27.7 31.3 4.8
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 54.9 60.9 75.7 89.9 101.7 114.1 126.3 3.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 3.1 4.7 6.0 6.8 7.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.6 6.6 8.4 8.8 9.6 11.5 13.3 2.8
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.4 101.0 109.9 137.1 166.5 194.0 220.5 247.0 3.3

Table E2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Price Case, 1990-2030 (Continued)
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Middle East
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 11.3 12.0 13.9 15.3 17.3 19.0 20.6 2.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 9.0 10.2 11.8 13.5 15.2 16.1 17.0 2.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -1.3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.4
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.5 29.6 33.2 35.8 38.3 2.1
Africa
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.8 6.0 7.0 7.9 8.8 9.3 9.9 2.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.8 3.2 3.9 5.0 6.2 7.0 7.8 3.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.7
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.5 19.2 21.5 23.2 24.7 2.2
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.0 11.2 13.0 14.2 15.4 16.4 17.6 1.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.4 4.7 6.1 7.3 8.1 8.9 9.6 2.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.2
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.9 9.0 9.9 10.8 2.1
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 22.5 23.4 27.7 31.2 34.4 37.0 39.8 2.1
Total Non-OECD
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.9 68.4 70.8 83.0 96.0 109.3 120.6 132.9 2.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 50.2 53.9 64.0 75.5 86.2 93.5 101.5 2.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.7 69.1 75.2 90.4 106.3 118.6 131.1 143.7 2.6
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.3 4.2 5.1 7.1 9.7 11.8 12.6 4.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 15.9 17.2 20.7 22.1 24.0 27.2 30.3 2.3
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149.9 207.9 221.3 263.1 307.0 347.8 384.2 421.1 2.6
Total World
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.4 166.6 169.4 181.8 201.8 219.2 233.2 248.9 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 103.3 107.4 122.0 138.5 153.3 163.6 173.8 1.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.2 116.1 122.5 138.7 155.0 167.1 180.3 194.6 1.9
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 27.4 27.5 28.8 31.4 34.3 37.2 38.6 1.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 33.8 35.5 41.9 44.8 49.1 54.4 58.7 2.0
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.4 447.3 462.2 513.3 571.4 622.6 668.4 714.3 1.8
try.
tions Plus (2008).

Appendix E
Table E3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,
Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,676 11,004 12,465 14,292 16,030 17,966 20,228 2.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 1,004 1,034 1,187 1,337 1,493 1,667 1,858 2.4
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 1,016 1,045 1,273 1,555 1,892 2,272 2,700 3.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 11,197 11,445 13,154 14,754 16,483 18,283 20,122 2.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,775 4,887 5,567 6,196 6,731 7,202 7,712 1.8
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,377 3,440 3,790 4,064 4,246 4,360 4,479 1.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 715 745 964 1,184 1,380 1,562 1,754 3.5
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 28,667 29,415 33,646 38,134 42,629 47,391 52,619 2.4
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,907 2,029 2,752 3,414 3,996 4,653 5,399 4.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,433 1,534 2,233 2,844 3,480 4,183 4,964 4.8
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,792 15,102 16,436 24,791 33,776 43,882 54,667 67,103 5.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,805 6,961 7,685 12,507 17,352 22,864 29,010 36,067 6.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,697 3,714 4,056 6,094 8,564 11,254 13,743 16,554 5.8
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,466 1,550 1,959 2,362 2,888 3,487 4,170 4.0
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,182 2,295 3,014 3,810 4,703 5,714 6,898 4.5
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,581 1,627 2,013 2,401 2,842 3,328 3,901 3.6
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,824 25,462 27,378 39,266 51,712 65,550 80,520 97,802 5.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,989 54,129 56,793 72,912 89,845 108,179 127,910 150,421 4.0
a

Table E4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.7 20.8 20.8 21.9 22.6 23.1 23.7 0.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 0.9
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.0
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.5 15.5 15.5 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.4 0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 8.5 8.6 8.5 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.1 0.7
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 0.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 1.6
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 49.0 49.3 49.3 52.6 54.6 56.0 57.6 0.6
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 1.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 2.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 14.8 15.3 18.2 22.3 26.2 29.6 33.5 3.2
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 6.4 6.7 8.8 10.4 12.6 14.6 16.9 3.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.5 4.2 4.7 5.3 3.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.5 5.9 6.8 7.5 8.4 9.2 10.0 2.2
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.8 2.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.5 2.0
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 33.3 34.3 40.3 46.6 53.0 58.5 64.5 2.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.6 82.3 83.6 89.6 99.2 107.7 114.6 122.0 1.5
a
tions Plus (2008).

Appendix E
Table E5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.4 22.2 23.4 24.5 24.8 24.9 24.8 0.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.2 1.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.1 3.4
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.9 19.3 20.9 23.4 25.5 26.8 28.2 1.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.2 5.2 5.9 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 1.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 0.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.4
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 51.6 51.9 56.0 60.9 64.6 67.2 69.6 1.2
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 16.0 16.2 17.5 18.9 19.7 20.3 21.4 1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.4 9.1 10.2 11.1 12.2 12.7 13.4 1.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 8.5 9.3 13.0 17.8 22.6 26.2 29.6 4.7
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.4 1.7 2.9 4.3 5.6 6.5 7.4 6.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.4 5.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.6 9.8 11.3 12.9 14.5 15.3 16.3 2.1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.6 4.7 5.7 6.5 7.2 3.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 4.3
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 48.2 51.8 61.3 72.2 82.4 89.3 96.9 2.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 99.8 103.7 117.3 133.0 147.0 156.5 166.5 1.9
a
tions Plus (2008).

Table E6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.7 24.2 25.4 27.4 0.7
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.4
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 13.3 13.2 13.6 13.4 12.9 12.4 11.9 -0.4
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.3 0.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 -0.8
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 0.9
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 47.0 47.3 48.3 48.7 48.5 49.2 50.8 0.3
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.1 1.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 54.9 60.9 75.7 89.9 101.7 114.1 126.3 3.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 41.4 46.9 60.0 71.9 82.5 93.0 102.9 3.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 8.4 8.6 9.7 11.3 12.5 13.5 14.8 2.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -1.3
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 0.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 3.8
Other Central and South America . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 -0.5
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.7 69.1 75.2 90.4 106.3 118.6 131.1 143.7 2.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.2 116.1 122.5 138.7 155.1 167.1 180.3 194.5 1.9
a
tions Plus (2008).

Appendix E
Table E7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 789 782 797 807 854 860 837 0.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 86 87 110 113 120 127 135 1.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 0.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 941 929 916 904 831 856 881 -0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 392 418 444 498 550 588 629 1.6
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 268 278 301 321 338 361 384 1.3
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 124 139 143 177 212 227 245 2.3
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,216 2,227 2,277 2,333 2,365 2,441 2,492 0.5
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 137 140 155 190 237 293 306 3.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 125 124 134 136 172 180 180 1.5
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 103 106 150 293 446 573 643 7.5
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 48 50 65 164 267 351 410 8.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 15 16 37 66 104 134 149 9.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 6 —
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 14 12 14 15 15 21 21 2.2
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 12 10 15 18 22 22 22 3.3
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 399 399 476 669 910 1,106 1,189 4.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,615 2,626 2,753 3,002 3,275 3,548 3,680 1.4
a
tions Plus (2008).

Table E8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Low Price Case,
1990-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.5 8.4 9.5 10.6 10.9 2.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 1.6
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.5
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.3 6.5 7.2 7.3 7.9 8.6 9.0 1.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.7
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 7.7
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.9 18.2 21.3 22.8 25.0 27.2 28.4 1.8
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.1
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.6 6.6 8.4 8.8 9.6 11.5 13.3 2.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 3.3 4.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 6.8 8.1 2.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.3 7.0 2.8
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 15.9 17.2 20.7 22.1 24.0 27.2 30.3 2.3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 33.8 35.5 41.9 44.9 49.1 54.5 58.8 2.0
a
tions Plus (2008).

Appendix E
Table E9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,957 5,982 6,032 6,312 6,471 6,654 6,976 0.6
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 623 628 670 710 746 780 814 1.0
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 379 398 427 495 560 625 695 2.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,101 4,373 4,383 4,518 4,761 4,893 4,956 5,009 0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,541 2,148 2,174 2,205 2,319 2,382 2,424 2,478 0.5
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,009 1,242 1,230 1,193 1,220 1,229 1,223 1,214 -0.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 488 500 561 623 651 677 715 1.4
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,396 13,480 13,565 13,851 14,597 15,052 15,439 15,973 0.7
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,376 1,669 1,696 1,791 1,926 2,022 2,065 2,180 1.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,822 1,128 1,169 1,280 1,451 1,559 1,649 1,746 1.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,613 7,517 8,177 10,161 12,276 14,158 15,960 17,804 3.2
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 4,753 5,323 6,887 8,282 9,624 10,912 12,193 3.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565 1,127 1,164 1,336 1,612 1,843 2,042 2,263 2.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 700 1,290 1,400 1,623 1,806 2,024 2,183 2,340 2.1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 943 966 1,087 1,258 1,395 1,484 1,553 1.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 350 356 451 510 564 609 666 2.5
Other Central and South America . . 453 692 722 858 960 1,035 1,093 1,152 1.9
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,830 13,589 14,486 17,251 20,188 22,758 25,043 27,441 2.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,226 27,070 28,051 31,102 34,784 37,810 40,482 43,414 1.8
a
tions Plus (2008).

Table E10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,597 2,615 2,560 2,723 2,804 2,853 3,002 0.6
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 291 290 305 322 339 352 365 0.9
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 254 264 275 322 357 393 433 2.0
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,097 2,103 2,099 2,230 2,296 2,334 2,360 0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 914 1,016 1,028 1,010 1,095 1,149 1,180 1,209 0.7
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661 636 643 602 633 649 654 657 0.1
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 238 240 263 298 324 341 358 1.6
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,414 6,255 6,300 6,249 6,692 6,945 7,112 7,368 0.6
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 783 379 379 416 456 487 508 526 1.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 572 287 294 352 398 445 490 534 2.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,979 2,037 2,437 2,979 3,496 3,954 4,474 3.2
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 843 880 1,160 1,373 1,656 1,919 2,226 3.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 302 303 339 438 523 589 666 3.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 780 824 959 1,055 1,189 1,305 1,414 2.2
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 400 413 487 548 612 647 683 2.0
Central and South America . . . . . . 503 734 749 871 947 1,028 1,095 1,173 1.8
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 274 279 321 354 391 421 458 2.0
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,558 4,697 5,522 6,383 7,258 7,999 8,804 2.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,009 10,813 10,996 11,771 13,075 14,202 15,111 16,172 1.6
a
tions Plus (2008).

Appendix E
Table E11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,194 1,193 1,272 1,326 1,356 1,376 1,352 0.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 181 185 201 223 241 260 281 1.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 97 99 114 135 167 197 230 3.4
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 1,027 1,048 1,137 1,270 1,384 1,454 1,530 1.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 293 294 332 369 389 405 418 1.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 173 170 186 199 207 210 212 0.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 60 63 80 97 103 109 114 2.4
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,791 2,819 3,056 3,322 3,537 3,692 3,811 1.2
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 868 875 946 1,022 1,068 1,100 1,158 1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 460 500 556 605 664 693 734 1.5
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 469 516 725 991 1,263 1,461 1,653 4.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 83 101 180 263 345 400 453 6.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 59 69 105 144 178 214 240 5.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 476 541 625 715 802 849 899 2.1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 149 167 206 265 326 368 411 3.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 33 36 56 69 78 89 103 4.3
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,651 2,847 3,379 3,984 4,552 4,938 5,360 2.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,443 5,666 6,435 7,306 8,089 8,630 9,171 1.9
a
tions Plus (2008).

Table E12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,155 2,162 2,188 2,252 2,299 2,412 2,611 0.8
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 151 153 163 165 166 168 168 0.4
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 28 35 38 37 36 35 33 -0.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,644 1,250 1,232 1,282 1,261 1,214 1,168 1,119 -0.4
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 840 853 863 855 844 839 851 0.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246 433 417 405 388 373 359 345 -0.8
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 190 196 218 227 224 226 242 0.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,032 4,423 4,435 4,535 4,570 4,558 4,624 4,781 0.3
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 665 422 442 429 448 468 457 496 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 729 381 376 372 447 450 466 478 1.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,503 5,070 5,624 6,998 8,307 9,399 10,544 11,676 3.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,827 4,341 5,548 6,646 7,624 8,593 9,513 3.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 765 791 891 1,031 1,142 1,239 1,357 2.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 35 35 39 36 33 30 26 -1.2
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 394 386 394 445 457 469 460 0.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 43 41 75 87 95 99 105 3.8
Other Central and South America . . 20 35 40 42 51 46 40 35 -0.5
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,231 6,380 6,943 8,350 9,821 10,949 12,105 13,277 2.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,263 10,803 11,378 12,884 14,391 15,507 16,729 18,058 1.9
a
tions Plus (2008).

Appendix F

by End-Use Sector and Country Grouping
Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Country Grouping
Table F1. Total World Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.1 0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.1 20.5 22.1 23.2 24.1 25.2 1.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3 0.2
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 18.1 20.7 23.1 25.2 27.4 2.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.4
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48.5 52.8 57.5 61.3 64.4 67.6 1.3
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 7.6 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.6 1.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.3 14.6 17.1 19.2 21.3 23.4 2.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.6 28.2 31.5 34.2 36.9 39.5 1.7
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.4 58.6 61.8 65.3 68.3 72.0 1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.2 51.4 57.6 62.6 66.5 70.2 1.8
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.2 46.0 51.0 55.3 59.9 64.2 1.8
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.7 38.4 43.2 47.9 52.2 2.8
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.4 4.5 3.2
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170.0 191.2 211.8 230.0 247.0 263.1 1.8
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.2 98.2 108.1 116.2 123.9 132.8 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -100.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90.2 100.4 110.5 118.7 126.5 135.4 1.6
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159.0 172.0 185.5 197.5 208.5 221.2 1.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72.6 80.7 89.1 95.9 101.3 106.5 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.3 50.4 55.7 60.0 64.4 68.5 1.7
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.4 66.3 77.1 86.4 95.4 104.1 2.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.3 5.2 5.3 2.4
Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334.3 372.6 411.2 444.2 474.8 505.7 1.7
Electricity-Related Lossesa . . . . . . . . . . 128.0 139.8 151.8 164.2 177.0 189.0 1.6
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462.2 512.5 563.0 608.4 651.8 694.7 1.6
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.1 -1.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34.7 39.6 45.2 51.0 54.5 58.2 2.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77.2 89.8 102.0 111.7 122.3 133.7 2.2
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 28.8 31.4 34.5 37.7 39.4 1.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.4 38.5 41.1 44.8 49.4 53.6 2.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182.4 206.1 228.8 250.6 272.4 293.1 1.9
Total Energy Consumption
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169.4 181.1 194.4 206.1 216.9 229.3 1.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107.4 120.3 134.4 146.9 155.8 164.7 1.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122.5 140.2 157.8 171.7 186.7 202.2 2.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 28.8 31.4 34.5 37.7 39.4 1.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.5 42.0 45.0 49.3 54.7 59.0 2.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462.2 512.5 563.0 608.4 651.8 694.7 1.6
a
Electricity
losses incurred in the transmission and distribution of electric power. May include some heat production.
b
Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007), web site www.eia.
doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO2008 National Energy
Modeling System, run AEO2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projections Plus (2008).

Appendix F
Table F2. Total OECD Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 -0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.0 13.1 0.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -1.3
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.0 11.0 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.5 1.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.5
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.6 29.3 30.2 31.0 31.8 32.6 0.5
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 -0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.4 0.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.6
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 10.3 11.4 12.3 13.3 14.2 1.8
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 20.2 21.7 23.0 24.2 25.3 1.1
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.5 28.0 28.5 28.4 28.6 29.1 0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.9 19.3 20.2 20.8 21.5 22.0 0.8
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.5 0.1
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.1 0.9
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.4 4.3 4.4 3.3
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68.8 71.0 73.6 75.2 77.3 79.1 0.6
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57.5 59.4 62.6 64.4 65.8 67.6 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -100.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58.5 60.5 63.8 65.6 67.0 68.8 0.7
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.7 95.7 99.5 101.3 102.8 105.1 0.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.1 38.8 40.3 41.5 42.6 43.4 0.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.0 0.1
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.8 33.6 36.0 38.1 40.0 42.2 1.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.1 5.0 5.1 2.6
Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175.2 181.0 189.3 194.9 200.3 205.8 0.6
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240.9 249.7 260.5 269.0 277.6 285.9 0.7
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 -2.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.4 18.5 20.9 22.6 23.6 24.9 1.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.5 38.8 39.9 41.3 43.0 44.9 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 26.0 26.8 0.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4 18.1 19.3 21.0 22.4 23.5 1.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96.6 102.2 107.2 112.2 117.3 122.3 0.9
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.7 98.5 102.1 103.7 105.1 107.2 0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53.4 57.3 61.2 64.1 66.1 68.3 1.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.3 48.7 49.9 51.2 52.9 55.0 0.6
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 26.0 26.8 0.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.2 21.3 22.9 25.2 27.5 28.7 1.8
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240.9 249.7 260.5 269.0 277.6 285.9 0.7
a
Electricity
b
doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO2008 National Energy
Modeling System, run AEO2008.D030208F, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projections Plus (2008).

Table F3. Delivered Energy Consumption in the United States by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 -0.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 0.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.9 1.0
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.9 0.4
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 0.8
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.6 1.7
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 8.6 9.4 10.0 10.7 11.3 1.2
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.2 -0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 0.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3 0.6
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 0.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.3 4.2 4.3 3.4
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.0 25.8 26.3 26.7 27.5 27.7 0.4
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.3 28.3 29.6 30.4 31.0 32.1 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.9 29.0 30.4 31.2 31.9 33.0 0.7
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.2 39.9 41.2 41.7 42.2 43.4 0.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.6 17.0 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.3 0.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.6
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 13.2 13.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 1.0
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.7 4.8 2.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.1 103.3 107.3 110.8 114.5 118.0 0.7
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -2.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 6.9 6.7 6.1 5.4 5.1 -0.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 21.0 22.2 23.7 25.5 27.5 1.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.5 9.6 0.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 4.6 5.1 5.7 6.0 6.2 2.4
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.7 41.5 43.1 45.2 47.2 49.2 0.9
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 40.5 41.8 42.2 42.8 44.0 0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.6 23.9 24.4 24.0 23.7 23.4 0.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.8 23.0 24.2 25.9 27.7 29.9 1.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.5 9.6 0.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 7.6 8.5 9.7 10.9 11.2 2.5
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.1 103.3 107.3 110.8 114.5 118.0 0.7
a
Electricity
b
Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Includes net electricity imports.
Sources: 2005: Based on Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2006, DOE/EIA-0384(2006) (Washington, DC, June
2007). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO2008 National Energy Modeling
System, run AEO2008.D030208F, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.

Appendix F
Table F4. Delivered Energy Consumption in Canada by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.2
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.9
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.2
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 2.1
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.3 1.4
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 0.9
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.3 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 2.1
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.3 1.2
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.5 1.6
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.7 9.1 1.3
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 0.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.1 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 4.1 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 1.6
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.3 1.2
a
Electricity
b
doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008).

Table F5. Delivered Energy Consumption in Mexico by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 4.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 2.5
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 5.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 4.0
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.1
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 2.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 2.0
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 2.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 2.4
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.5 1.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.1
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 3.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 7.4 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.6 2.1
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 -0.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 4.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.5
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 2.1
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.5 6.0 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.3 3.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.5
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 7.4 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.6 2.1
a
Electricity
b

Appendix F
Table F6. Delivered Energy Consumption in OECD Europe by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 -0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 0.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.3
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 1.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.0 0.4
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.3
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 1.8
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 1.0
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.5 0.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2 -0.6
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 1.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.9 24.6 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.2 0.4
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 18.8 19.5 19.8 19.9 20.0 0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -100.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.7 19.1 19.8 20.1 20.2 20.3 0.3
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.2 31.2 32.2 32.5 32.7 32.8 0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 0.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 -0.7
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 11.7 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.7 1.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.4 83.9 86.8 88.5 90.4 92.0 0.5
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 -3.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 6.8 8.7 10.4 11.5 12.5 3.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.9 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.0 0.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 9.6 9.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 -0.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 7.1 7.1 7.8 8.4 8.9 1.3
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.9 34.0 35.5 36.9 38.6 40.0 0.9
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.1 31.9 32.8 33.0 33.1 33.2 0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.9 21.3 23.5 25.5 26.7 28.0 1.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.2 13.8 13.7 13.3 13.0 12.6 -0.2
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 9.6 9.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 -0.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 7.2 7.3 7.9 8.6 9.0 1.3
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.4 83.9 86.8 88.5 90.4 92.0 0.5
a
Electricity
b

Table F7. Delivered Energy Consumption in Japan by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.7
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 0.3
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 0.4
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 -0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 -0.2
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 -0.1
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 -0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 -0.1
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.6 -0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 -0.2
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 0.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.6 22.4 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.4 0.1
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 -3.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.8
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 -0.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 1.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 0.5
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.9 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 -0.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 0.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 -0.4
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 1.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.6 22.4 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.4 0.1
a
Electricity
b

Appendix F
Table F8. Delivered Energy Consumption in South Korea by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.8
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 2.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.0 1.2
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.9
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 1.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 10.3 11.6 12.4 13.0 13.7 1.6
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 3.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 8.2
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 3.9 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.7 2.1
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.2 1.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 1.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 7.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 10.3 11.6 12.4 13.0 13.7 1.6
a
Electricity
b

Table F9. Delivered Energy Consumption in Australia/New Zealand by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.7
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.3
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.9
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.1
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -100.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.1
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 0.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.8
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 0.8
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 0.6
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 0.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 0.6
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 0.8
a
Electricity
b

Appendix F
Table F10. Total Non-OECD Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.1 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.2 9.5 10.3 11.1 12.1 2.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 0.4
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 7.1 9.1 10.9 12.4 13.8 4.0
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.9 23.5 27.3 30.2 32.6 35.0 2.3
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 3.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.4 5.7 6.8 8.0 9.3 4.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 8.1 9.8 11.2 12.7 14.2 3.3
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.9 30.6 33.4 36.9 39.7 42.9 1.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.3 32.1 37.4 41.9 45.1 48.2 2.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.0 36.7 41.6 45.9 50.6 54.7 2.2
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.9 20.7 25.7 30.1 34.3 38.1 3.8
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.2 120.2 138.2 154.8 169.7 184.0 2.4
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.7 38.8 45.5 51.8 58.1 65.2 3.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 3.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -100.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.9
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.7 39.9 46.7 53.1 59.4 66.6 3.0
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64.3 76.3 86.1 96.2 105.6 116.0 2.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.5 41.9 48.9 54.4 58.7 63.1 2.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.5 40.5 45.8 50.1 54.5 58.5 2.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.6 32.7 41.0 48.4 55.4 61.9 3.9
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221.3 262.8 302.5 339.4 374.2 408.8 2.5
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 -0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 21.1 24.3 28.4 30.9 33.3 2.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.7 51.0 62.1 70.4 79.3 88.8 3.3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.1 7.1 9.7 11.8 12.6 4.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.4 21.9 23.8 27.0 30.1 2.3
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85.8 103.9 121.6 138.4 155.1 170.9 2.8
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.8 82.6 92.3 102.4 111.9 122.1 2.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53.9 63.0 73.1 82.8 89.6 96.4 2.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 91.5 107.9 120.5 133.8 147.3 2.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.1 7.1 9.7 11.8 12.6 4.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.2 20.7 22.1 24.0 27.2 30.3 2.3
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221.3 262.8 302.5 339.4 374.2 408.8 2.5
a
Electricity
b

Table F11. Delivered Energy Consumption in Russia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.3 1.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.2
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 3.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.7 1.6
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.6
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 3.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.3
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 0.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 8.8 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.6 0.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 0.4
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.3 2.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 15.3 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.6 1.1
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 1.6
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.0 1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.8 11.5 12.4 13.1 13.6 14.3 1.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.3
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.3 2.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.3 32.7 34.9 36.7 38.0 39.6 1.1
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -3.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.8 0.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.6 1.0
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.2
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.2 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.3 16.1 1.1
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 0.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.6 17.7 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.1 1.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.7 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.3 32.7 34.9 36.7 38.0 39.6 1.1
a
Electricity
b

Appendix F
Table F12. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia by End-Use Sector and
Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.1
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 2.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 1.3
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.3
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 0.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.5 6.7 7.0 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 0.7
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 10.7 11.7 12.5 13.0 13.4 1.4
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.4 3.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -100.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.5 3.1
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.3 6.8 2.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.0 8.7 9.4 9.7 10.1 1.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 0.6
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.7 2.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 22.4 24.5 26.5 28.0 29.4 1.5
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.2 1.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.2 1.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 7.5 8.3 9.0 9.6 10.3 1.3
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.1 5.5 6.1 6.6 7.1 2.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 10.4 11.1 12.1 12.6 13.3 1.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 4.1 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.5 1.2
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 22.4 24.5 26.5 28.0 29.4 1.5
a
Electricity
b

Table F13. Delivered Energy Consumption in China by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 6.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 0.2
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.1 6.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.4 6.4 7.3 8.1 8.9 3.0
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 -0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 5.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 6.9
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.2
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.3 8.6 9.8 11.0 12.7 2.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.0 4.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.1 25.4 29.3 32.8 36.7 40.3 2.4
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 10.4 13.5 16.1 18.8 21.2 5.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.1 45.7 53.5 61.2 69.3 77.3 3.1
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 7.6 9.8 12.2 14.8 17.5 5.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -100.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 4.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 7.9 10.1 12.5 15.0 17.7 5.2
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.3 17.6 20.1 23.7 27.5 31.8 3.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.6 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.5 5.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.7 28.2 32.3 35.7 39.3 42.8 2.2
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5 12.7 16.8 20.4 24.2 27.6 5.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.1 87.3 104.0 120.6 138.0 155.2 3.4
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.9 6.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.2 32.1 39.9 46.8 53.9 60.6 4.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.7 3.5 4.1 8.8
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 6.8 8.0 2.9
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.6 38.9 48.2 57.0 66.4 75.0 4.1
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.8 18.0 20.5 24.1 27.9 32.2 3.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.2 4.5 5.8 6.6 7.4 5.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46.9 60.3 72.1 82.5 93.2 103.4 3.2
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.7 3.5 4.1 8.8
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 6.8 8.1 2.9
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.1 87.3 104.0 120.6 138.0 155.2 3.4
a
Electricity
b

Appendix F
Table F14. Delivered Energy Consumption in India by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.4
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 5.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.0
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 —
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 5.8
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 5.0
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.8 2.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 3.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.9 2.1
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.2 9.7 11.0 12.4 13.9 2.7
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.9
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.2
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.4 6.6 7.7 8.6 9.7 2.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 3.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.4 2.1
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.5 5.2 5.9 4.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.2 19.4 23.2 26.6 29.9 33.2 2.9
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 5.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 7.0 8.3 9.3 10.1 11.1 2.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.8 9.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 9.9 11.8 13.7 15.5 17.0 3.1
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 5.6 6.8 7.9 8.9 9.9 2.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 9.9 11.6 12.9 14.1 15.5 2.4
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.8 9.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.2 19.4 23.2 26.6 29.9 33.2 2.9
a
Electricity
b

Table F15. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Non-OECD Asia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 3.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 3.7
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.8 2.9
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 4.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 3.7
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 4.5 5.6 6.0 6.3 6.5 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 4.3 5.4 6.7 7.9 9.1 4.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 2.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 13.2 16.1 18.5 20.5 22.5 2.8
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 7.5 9.1 10.4 11.7 13.1 2.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -100.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 7.5 9.1 10.4 11.7 13.1 2.9
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8 12.9 15.7 17.4 19.1 20.8 2.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 4.8 6.2 7.6 8.8 10.1 4.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 2.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.4 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.9 3.7
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 30.5 37.0 42.2 47.3 52.4 2.7
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 -1.5
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.4 4.5 5.9 6.7 7.4 3.8
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.2 3.8 3.8 4.5 5.4 2.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 3.0
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.8 9.8 11.8 13.7 15.7 17.6 2.8
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.8 13.8 16.6 18.3 19.8 21.5 2.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 8.2 10.7 13.5 15.5 17.4 4.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 6.1 7.0 7.2 8.2 9.3 2.3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 3.0
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 30.5 37.0 42.2 47.3 52.4 2.7
a
Electricity
b

Appendix F
Table F16. Delivered Energy Consumption in the Middle East by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.9
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.7
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 1.7
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.8
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 3.7
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 3.2
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 4.5 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.7 2.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 5.9 7.1 8.3 8.7 9.1 2.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.4
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.5
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 11.2 13.1 15.1 16.1 16.9 2.3
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.3 7.9 1.9
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 5.8 6.2 6.8 7.3 8.0 1.9
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 11.4 12.5 13.8 14.9 16.0 2.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 7.6 9.0 10.2 10.8 11.4 2.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.6 2.6
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.9 26.4 29.5 32.6 34.7 36.8 1.9
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 1.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.5
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 7.4 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.4 1.4
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.0 14.0 15.3 16.9 18.2 19.5 2.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 11.7 13.4 14.9 15.7 16.4 1.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.4
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.9 26.4 29.5 32.6 34.7 36.8 1.9
a
Electricity
b

Table F17. Delivered Energy Consumption in Africa by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.8
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.6
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 3.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.5
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 3.5
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.7
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 5.9 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.8 2.2
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.3 2.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -100.0
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.3 2.2
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.4 1.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.8 3.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.2
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.4 16.5 18.9 20.9 22.5 23.9 2.0
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 -2.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6 1.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.5 7.4 8.4 9.1 9.7 1.9
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.5 8.8 1.6
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.8 4.9 6.0 6.7 7.5 3.5
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.6 1.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.4 16.5 18.9 20.9 22.5 23.9 2.0
a
Electricity
b

Appendix F
Table F18. Delivered Energy Consumption in Brazil by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 3.1
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 2.4
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 4.8
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 4.5
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.3
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 3.9
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 2.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 2.2
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 1.8
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0 1.8
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.6 1.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 3.9
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 11.1 12.6 14.1 15.5 17.0 2.4
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 6.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.3 7.0 2.8
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 4.9 5.9 6.8 7.6 8.5 3.1
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.7 1.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 4.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 4.1
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.3 7.0 2.8
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 11.1 12.6 14.1 15.5 17.0 2.4
a
Electricity
b

Table F19. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Central and South America by End-Use Sector and Fuel,
2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Percent Change,
Sector/Fuel 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Residential
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 3.2
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 2.3
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3
Commercial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 2.9
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 2.6
Industrial
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 1.0
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 1.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 1.3
Transportation
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.5 2.2
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.9
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 2.2
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 7.1 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.9 1.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.1 2.0
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.0
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.1 16.6 17.9 19.1 20.3 21.3 1.7
Electric Powerb
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 -3.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 3.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.8
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 1.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.8 6.1 6.6 6.9 7.2 1.4
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.3 1.3
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 5.0 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.4 2.4
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.8
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.4
Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 1.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.1 16.6 17.9 19.1 20.3 21.3 1.7
a
Electricity
b

Appendix G
Projections of Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum

Production in Five Cases:
• Reference
• High Price
• Low Price
• High Economic Growth
• Low Economic Growth
Liquids Production Projections
Table G1. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030
History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 36.1 35.8 37.4 40.9 44.4 46.7 49.3 1.3
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 -0.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 23.8 23.6 23.7 26.2 28.8 30.2 31.8 1.2
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 0.2
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.1
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 0.9
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.2 4.3
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 11.1 10.7 10.5 11.9 12.6 13.1 13.7 0.8
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 0.3
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.8 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.8 1.7
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.0 2.6
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 0.1
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 3.9 5.1 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.7 2.2
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.7
Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 1.2
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.1 0.8
Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 0.9
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.1 48.2 48.4 51.8 54.7 57.0 59.8 63.2 1.1
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 21.8 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.5 22.0 22.3 0.1
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 15.1 15.2 16.2 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.0 0.7
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 8.2 8.2 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.2 9.8 0.7
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.3 2.2
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.8 -1.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 5.5 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.4 -2.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.8
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.5 27.0 30.3 33.1 35.5 37.8 40.9 1.8
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . . 11.6 11.9 12.3 14.0 15.9 16.8 17.5 18.9 1.8
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 10.2 11.4 12.1 12.6 13.5 1.4
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.1 3.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.9
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.5 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.7 0.7
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 0.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.7
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 -0.2
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 2.3
Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.1 3.8 3.9 4.9 5.2 6.0 7.0 8.2 3.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.9 2.1 3.2 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.7 4.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.5 1.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 84.3 84.2 89.2 95.7 101.3 106.5 112.5 1.2
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . . 38% 43% 43% 42% 43% 44% 44% 44%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 24% 28% 28% 27% 27% 28% 28% 28%
a
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).

Appendix G
Table G2. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 35.3 35.1 36.5 39.8 43.0 45.3 47.7 1.2
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -0.9
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 23.8 23.5 23.7 26.0 28.6 30.0 31.5 1.1
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 0.2
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.1
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 0.9
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.0
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 11.0 10.6 10.5 11.9 12.6 13.1 13.7 0.9
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.8 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.8 1.7
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.0 2.6
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 0.1
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 3.9 5.1 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.7 2.2
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.7
Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 1.2
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.9 0.2
Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 0.1
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 46.5 46.5 48.2 49.6 50.9 52.5 55.1 0.7
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 20.3 19.8 18.8 17.7 16.8 16.4 16.2 -0.9
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.2 12.6 12.3 12.1 -0.5
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 7.9 7.8 8.7 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.2 0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 -2.3
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.8 -1.2
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 5.5 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.3 -2.3
Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -5.1
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 -2.4
United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 -3.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
a

Table G2. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030
(Continued)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.0 26.2 26.7 29.4 31.9 34.1 36.1 38.9 1.6
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 10.2 11.4 12.1 12.6 13.5 1.4
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.1 3.6
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 3.5
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.0
Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.5
Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.2
Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 -1.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.0 0.3
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 0.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1
Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0
Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.4
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.5
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.4
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -1.5
Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.0 2.0
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 2.8
Congo (Brazzaville) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 3.7
Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4
Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0
Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 4.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.8 1.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.3 5.0 4.2
Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 -2.7
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 -2.4
Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 4.8
Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 7.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 81.9 81.6 84.8 89.4 93.9 97.8 102.9 0.9
Note: Conventional liquids include crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain.

Appendix G
Table G3. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 3.1
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Extra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela). . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 3.0
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 —
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.7 1.9 3.6 5.1 6.1 7.3 8.1 6.4
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.6 2.7 3.9 4.7 5.5 6.1 5.9
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4 7.7
Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.2 5.5
Extra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 25.0
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 8.7
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 5.7
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 6.7
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
World
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.7 6.7
Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.2 5.5
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 3.2
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 8.2
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.5 2.6 4.5 6.2 7.4 8.7 9.7 5.6
Selected Country Highlights
Biofuels
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 5.4
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.6
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.6
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 8.1
Coal-to-Liquids
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 —
Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.9
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 —
Gas-to-Liquids
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 —
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
a

Table G4. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 36.1 35.8 37.3 35.4 35.0 34.9 35.5 -0.1
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 -1.8
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 23.8 23.6 23.7 22.4 22.3 22.0 22.1 -0.3
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.9 -1.5
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.6 1.3
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 -0.7
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.7
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 11.1 10.7 10.5 10.2 9.7 9.4 9.4 -0.7
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 -1.0
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.8 3.9 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.9 4.1 0.2
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.2
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 -1.4
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 3.9 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.5 0.5
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9
Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 -0.3
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.1 0.8
Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -1.3
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.8 1.1
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.1 48.2 48.4 51.4 54.3 56.7 60.3 63.7 1.1
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 21.8 21.4 21.5 22.4 23.8 25.7 27.6 1.0
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 8.2 8.2 9.2 9.7 10.3 10.9 11.5 1.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.3 3.9 5.6 7.3 8.6 9.8 4.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.5 -1.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 5.5 4.5 3.8 3.2 3.1 3.0 -2.7
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.4
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.1
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.5 26.9 29.9 31.9 32.9 34.7 36.1 1.3
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 10.4 10.8 10.7 10.9 11.0 0.6
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 2.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.2 0.4
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 0.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 2.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 0.3
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.3 2.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.9 2.1 3.2 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.5 4.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.3 0.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 84.3 84.2 88.7 89.7 91.7 95.2 99.3 0.7
a

Appendix G
Table G5. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 35.3 35.1 36.3 34.0 33.0 32.5 32.8 -0.3
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 -2.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 23.8 23.5 23.6 22.3 22.0 21.6 21.7 -0.4
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.9 -1.5
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.6 1.3
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 -0.7
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 3.1
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 11.0 10.6 10.4 10.2 9.7 9.4 9.4 -0.6
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 -1.0
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.8 3.9 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.9 4.1 0.2
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.2
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 -1.4
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 3.9 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.3 4.4 0.5
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9
Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 -0.4
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 -1.3
Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -1.3
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 -1.2
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 46.5 46.5 48.5 47.3 46.3 47.1 47.5 0.1
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 20.3 19.8 18.7 17.0 16.0 15.9 15.6 -1.1
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 7.9 7.8 8.5 8.6 8.9 8.9 8.6 0.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 -2.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.4 -1.8
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 5.5 4.5 3.6 3.0 2.9 2.8 -3.0
Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -5.9
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.0 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 -3.0
United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 -3.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.1
a

Table G5. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030
(Continued)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.0 26.2 26.7 29.8 30.2 30.3 31.2 31.9 0.8
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 10.4 10.8 10.7 10.9 11.0 0.6
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 2.8
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 2.6
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.2
Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7
Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.7
Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.7
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 5.8 -0.5
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0 -0.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5
Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 -0.6
Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.4
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.4
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 -2.0
Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 1.2
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.9
Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 -0.3
Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.2
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.9
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.8
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.8 1.9 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.0 3.4
Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 -3.3
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 -3.2
Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 4.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 6.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 81.9 81.6 84.9 81.3 79.4 79.7 80.3 -0.1

Appendix G
Table G6. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels per Day)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.4 2.7 5.2
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.7 1.9 2.9 7.0 10.4 13.2 16.3 9.4
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.6 2.7 5.3 7.8 9.8 12.0 8.8
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 8.0
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 32.9
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7 2.6 3.4 4.2 12.0
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 8.9
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 9.9
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
World
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.7 4.2 8.6
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.3 5.4
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.7 12.8
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 13.6
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.5 2.6 3.8 8.4 12.3 15.6 19.0 8.5
Biofuels
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 8.5
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 5.7
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 6.7
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 7.9
Coal-to-Liquids
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 —
Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 —
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 7.0
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 —
Gas-to-Liquids
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 —
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
a

Table G7. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 36.1 35.8 38.4 45.3 51.5 55.8 60.0 2.1
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.0
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 23.8 23.6 24.4 29.1 33.7 36.4 39.0 2.0
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.5 1.0
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 4.0 4.5 5.0 4.0
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.1 1.7
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.5 3.9 5.1
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 11.1 10.7 10.8 13.3 14.8 15.8 16.8 1.7
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.8 3.9 4.8 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.1 2.5
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.9 3.5
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.9
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 3.9 5.2 6.3 6.9 7.5 8.2 3.0
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.6
Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.3 2.0
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.6 1.2
Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.3
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.7 3.9 1.2
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.1 48.2 48.4 51.3 53.9 56.2 58.8 62.0 1.0
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 21.8 21.4 21.4 20.6 19.9 19.7 19.4 -0.5
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 8.2 8.2 9.4 10.1 10.2 9.8 9.2 0.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.3 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 -0.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.7 3.0 -0.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 5.5 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 -1.9
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.5 26.9 29.9 33.3 36.2 39.1 42.6 1.9
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 10.4 11.7 12.6 13.5 14.6 1.7
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.5 3.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.7
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.5 6.5 6.4 7.2 7.6 7.8 7.8 0.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 0.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 0.9
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 0.1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.5 2.3
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.9 2.1 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 4.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.6 1.4
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 84.3 84.2 89.7 99.2 107.7 114.6 122.0 1.5
a

Appendix G
Table G8. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 35.3 35.1 37.4 44.3 50.3 54.5 58.6 2.0
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 -0.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 23.8 23.5 24.3 29.0 33.5 36.1 38.8 2.0
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.5 1.0
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 4.0 4.5 5.0 4.0
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.1 1.7
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.9
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 11.0 10.6 10.7 13.3 14.8 15.8 16.8 1.7
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.8 3.9 4.8 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.1 2.5
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.9 3.5
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.9
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 3.9 5.2 6.3 6.9 7.5 8.2 3.0
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.6
Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.3 2.0
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.5 1.0
Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.3
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.8 1.0
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 46.5 46.5 48.9 51.0 53.0 55.2 58.4 0.9
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 20.3 19.8 19.0 18.2 17.3 16.8 16.5 -0.8
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 7.9 7.8 8.7 9.1 9.1 8.4 7.7 -0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 -2.0
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.7 3.0 -0.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 5.5 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 -1.9
Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -4.8
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 -2.1
United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 -2.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
a

Table G8. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
(Continued)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.0 26.2 26.7 29.9 32.7 35.6 38.5 41.9 1.9
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 10.4 11.7 12.6 13.5 14.6 1.7
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.5 3.9
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 3.8
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.3
Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.8
Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.0
Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.6 0.6
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 0.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4
Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3
Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.7
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -1.2
Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.3 2.3
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 3.1
Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 4.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 3.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.8 1.9 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.4 4.6
Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 -2.4
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 -2.1
Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 5.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 7.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 81.9 81.6 86.3 95.2 103.3 109.8 117.1 1.4

Appendix G
Table G9. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.4
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.0
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 7.4
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 4.0
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.1
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.7
World
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.7 4.8
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 2.5
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 3.2
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.7
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.5 2.6 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.0 2.9
Biofuels
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -1.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.9
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 8.1
Coal-to-Liquids
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —
Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.6
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Gas-to-Liquids
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 —
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
a

Table G10. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 36.1 35.8 38.2 42.2 46.8 50.8 55.0 1.7
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 -0.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 23.8 23.6 24.2 26.8 30.1 32.5 35.0 1.5
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 0.6
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.5 4.0 4.4 3.5
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.6 1.2
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.9
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 11.1 10.7 10.8 12.3 13.3 14.0 15.0 1.2
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.8 3.9 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.3 2.0
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.4 3.0
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 0.4
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 3.9 5.1 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.4 2.6
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.4 4.1
Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 1.6
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.3 1.8
Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.6 1.9
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.1 48.2 48.4 51.9 57.0 60.6 64.8 70.0 1.5
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 21.8 21.4 21.7 22.5 22.4 22.8 23.2 0.2
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 8.2 8.2 9.4 10.1 10.2 9.8 9.2 0.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.7 2.5
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.9 3.3 -0.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 5.5 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.9 -1.6
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.8
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.2
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.5 26.9 30.2 34.5 38.2 42.0 46.8 2.3
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 10.5 11.9 13.0 14.1 15.6 2.0
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.9 4.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.5 8.8 1.2
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.7 3.8 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 0.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.3
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.5 5.1 2.8
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.9 2.1 3.3 3.7 4.6 5.5 6.5 4.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.9 1.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 84.3 84.2 90.1 99.2 107.4 115.6 125.0 1.6
a

Appendix G
Table G11. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 35.3 35.1 37.2 40.6 44.8 48.3 52.3 1.6
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 -0.6
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 23.8 23.5 24.1 26.6 29.8 32.1 34.6 1.5
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 0.6
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.5 4.0 4.4 3.5
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.6 1.2
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.3 4.4
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 11.0 10.6 10.7 12.3 13.3 14.0 15.0 1.2
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.8 3.9 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.3 2.0
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.4 3.0
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 0.4
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 3.9 5.2 5.8 6.1 6.6 7.3 2.5
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.4 4.1
Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.8 1.5
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.1 0.6
Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.5 0.5
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 46.5 46.5 49.1 51.8 54.3 57.3 61.7 1.1
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 20.3 19.8 19.1 18.4 17.6 17.1 17.0 -0.7
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 7.9 7.8 8.7 9.1 9.1 8.4 7.7 -0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 -1.8
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.8 3.2 -0.7
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 5.5 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.8 -1.7
Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -4.6
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 -1.9
United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 -2.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.8
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
a

Table G11. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030 (Continued)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.0 26.2 26.7 30.1 33.3 36.7 40.2 44.7 2.2
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 10.5 11.9 13.0 14.1 15.6 2.0
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.9 4.2
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 4.1
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.6
Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.1
Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.7
Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.6 7.9 8.1 0.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 0.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6
Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6
Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.9
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.9
Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.6 2.6
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 3.4
Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 4.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 3.2
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.8 1.9 3.0 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.7 4.8
Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 -2.2
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -1.8
Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 5.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 7.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 81.9 81.6 86.3 92.4 99.1 105.7 114.0 1.3

Appendix G
Table G12. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.7 5.2
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.7 1.9 2.8 5.2 6.3 7.5 8.3 6.5
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.6 2.7 4.0 4.8 5.7 6.2 5.9
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 7.7
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 18.0
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 9.0
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 6.0
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 7.0
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
World
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.8 6.9
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 5.3
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 7.6
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.5 2.6 3.8 6.8 8.3 9.9 11.0 6.2
Biofuels
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 5.6
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.9
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 8.1
Coal-to-Liquids
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 —
Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 4.2
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Gas-to-Liquids
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 —
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
a

Table G13. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 36.1 35.8 37.8 40.6 43.1 44.1 45.0 0.9
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -1.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 23.8 23.6 24.0 25.9 27.9 28.5 29.0 0.8
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 -0.2
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 2.7
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 0.5
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.0 4.1
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 11.1 10.7 10.6 11.6 12.0 12.1 12.4 0.4
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.8 3.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.3 1.3
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 2.3
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 -0.3
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 3.9 5.1 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 1.8
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.3
Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 0.8
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.8 0.4
Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.2 0.5
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.1 48.2 48.4 50.9 51.7 52.6 54.1 56.3 0.6
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 21.8 21.4 21.1 19.7 19.2 19.8 20.7 -0.2
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 8.2 8.2 9.2 9.7 10.3 10.9 11.5 1.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.3 3.6 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 -0.5
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 -1.5
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 5.5 4.5 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.1 -2.6
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.5 26.9 29.7 32.0 33.3 34.3 35.6 1.2
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 10.3 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 1.0
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 3.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.6 0.1
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 -0.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 0.3
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 1.6
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.9 2.1 3.2 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.7 3.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.2 0.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 84.3 84.2 88.7 92.3 95.6 98.3 101.3 0.7
a

Appendix G
Table G14. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 35.3 35.1 36.9 39.6 41.9 42.8 43.6 0.8
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 -1.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 23.8 23.5 23.9 25.7 27.7 28.3 28.8 0.8
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 -0.2
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 2.7
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 0.5
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.8
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 11.0 10.6 10.6 11.6 12.0 12.1 12.4 0.5
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.8 3.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.3 1.3
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 2.3
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 -0.3
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 3.9 5.1 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 1.8
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.3
Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 0.8
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6 -0.1
Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 -0.2
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 46.5 46.5 48.4 48.8 49.2 49.9 50.9 0.4
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 20.3 19.8 18.7 17.3 16.5 16.3 16.1 -0.9
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 7.9 7.8 8.5 8.6 8.9 8.9 8.6 0.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 -2.5
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 -1.5
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 5.5 4.5 3.8 3.2 3.1 3.0 -2.6
Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -5.6
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.0 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 -2.8
United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 -3.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
a

Table G14. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030 (Continued)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.0 26.2 26.7 29.7 31.5 32.8 33.6 34.8 1.1
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 10.3 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 1.0
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 3.2
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 3.0
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.6
Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.0
Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.5
Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.3 -0.1
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 -0.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8
Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.3
Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.0
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.8
Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6 1.6
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.3
Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.5
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 3.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.2
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.8 1.9 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.4 3.7
Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 -3.0
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 -2.8
Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 4.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 6.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 81.9 81.6 85.3 88.3 91.1 92.8 94.5 0.6

Appendix G
Table G15. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 1990 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
a
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.5
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.3 4.2 5.4 4.7
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.5 4.6 4.7
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 7.2
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 32.7
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 4.8
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.9
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.9
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0
World
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.8 4.9
Extra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 2.6
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.5 10.2
Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 —
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.1
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.5 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.5 5.5 6.8 4.2
Biofuels
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.6
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 7.9
Coal-to-Liquids
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —
Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.6
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 —
Gas-to-Liquids
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 —
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —
a

Appendix H
Reference Case Projections for

Electricity Capacity and Generation by Fuel
Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections
Table H1. World Total Installed Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2005-2030
(Gigawatts)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,146 1,235 1,253 1,327 1,423 1,523 1.1
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 974 1,035 1,025 1,073 1,142 1,213 0.9
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 138 157 171 186 200 2.1
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 61 70 83 95 110 3.0
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 746 829 884 945 988 1,054 1.4
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368 421 442 456 467 484 1.1
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248 271 271 272 271 273 0.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 86 101 110 117 128 2.9
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 58 65 70 74 79 83 1.4
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,260 2,485 2,579 2,729 2,878 3,062 1.2
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 403 466 522 558 595 632 1.8
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 248 282 307 330 353 2.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 218 240 251 266 278 1.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 781 1,128 1,438 1,777 2,128 2,472 4.7
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442 692 890 1,132 1,384 1,618 5.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 201 249 296 347 398 4.3
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 201 235 299 349 397 457 3.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 160 177 188 201 216 2.3
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 135 167 195 218 240 3.3
Central and South America . . . . . . 215 263 306 347 382 412 2.6
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 119 152 179 204 226 3.7
Other Central and South America . . 124 144 155 169 178 186 1.6
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,629 2,152 2,611 3,067 3,525 3,972 3.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,889 4,637 5,189 5,795 6,402 7,033 2.4

a
Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June
2008), AEO2008 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D030208F, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for
the Analysis of Global Energy Markets/Global Electricity Module (2008).

Appendix H
Table H2. World Installed Liquids-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2005-2030
(Gigawatts)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 141 141 116 116 116 115 -0.8
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 120 95 95 95 95 -1.0
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 5 5 5 5 5 1.1
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 16 16 15 15 15 0.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 57 57 55 54 53 -0.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 67 67 66 64 63 -0.2
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 59 59 58 57 56 -0.2
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 6 6 6 6 6 -0.1
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 265 240 237 234 231 -0.5
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 10 10 10 10 10 0.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 22 22 22 22 22 0.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 57 58 57 56 55 -0.1
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 15 15 15 14 14 -0.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 7 7 6 6 6 0.1
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 35 36 37 36 35 34 -0.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 43 45 44 44 46 0.9
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 11 11 10 10 10 -0.1
Central and South America . . . . . . 28 28 28 27 27 26 -0.2
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 4 4 4 4 3 -0.2
Other Central and South America . . 24 24 24 24 23 23 -0.2
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 170 173 171 168 168 0.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422 435 413 408 403 400 -0.2

a

Table H3. World Installed Natural-Gas-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2005-2030
(Gigawatts)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 348 389 405 435 481 535 1.7
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316 345 342 352 378 409 1.0
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 20 31 37 46 54 5.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 23 32 45 57 72 5.7
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 209 270 330 359 376 3.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 131 139 146 152 160 1.9
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 85 82 83 82 84 0.6
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 31 38 42 46 50 4.5
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 617 729 815 911 992 1,071 2.2
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 115 138 150 165 177 2.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 71 80 86 92 99 3.2
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 188 301 450 583 715 8.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 58 102 191 270 339 13.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 58 78 106 133 9.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 100 114 125 136 148 2.8
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 53 78 103 120 137 5.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 17 28 33 38 43 7.0
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 592 794 1,012 1,206 1,395 5.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,011 1,321 1,609 1,923 2,198 2,467 3.6

a

Appendix H
Table H4. World Installed Coal-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2005-2030
(Gigawatts)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314 320 329 349 379 414 1.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 18 18 18 18 18 0.0
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 7 7 7 7 7 0.4
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 212 209 206 203 215 0.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 105 108 109 111 115 0.7
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 45 44 44 43 42 -0.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 28 30 30 30 33 1.9
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 634 661 671 690 718 769 0.8
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 46 52 58 59 69 1.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 57 68 68 72 78 1.2
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425 628 803 961 1,130 1,304 4.6
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 478 619 756 897 1,034 5.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 96 120 140 155 173 3.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 6 6 6 6 6 0.6
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 42 47 50 53 53 1.2
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 4 4 5 5 6 4.5
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 580 790 991 1,159 1,336 1,526 3.9
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,214 1,451 1,662 1,849 2,055 2,295 2.6

a

Table H5. World Installed Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2005-2030
(Gigawatts)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 101 102 111 116 115 0.6
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 15 15 16 17 18 1.4
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 129 126 114 116 118 -0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 67 74 80 84 88 1.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 49 52 54 56 58 0.8
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 18 22 26 28 30 2.4
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 313 318 323 334 341 0.4
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 23 27 33 40 41 2.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 19 19 24 25 25 1.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 21 40 59 75 83 7.0
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 9 22 35 45 52 8.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 5 9 14 18 20 8.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 1 1 1 1 —
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 2 2 3 3 1.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 3 3 3 3 1.6
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 68 93 124 148 157 3.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374 381 411 446 482 498 1.1

a

Appendix H
Table H6. World Installed Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Generating Capacity by Region and Country,
2005-2030
(Gigawatts)
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 149 157 166 175 181 1.6
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 80 88 94 100 105 1.3
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 14 14 14 14 14 0.7
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 223 223 240 255 292 1.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 52 53 54 55 57 0.9
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 33 33 33 33 34 0.8
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3 4 5 6 7 5.9
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 517 535 568 599 649 1.3
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 55 55 56 56 56 0.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 50 51 51 54 55 0.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 234 237 250 284 316 1.8
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 132 132 136 158 179 2.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 56 56 57 62 66 0.8
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 11 11 12 13 14 2.6
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 27 29 30 32 38 2.0
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 92 113 135 154 170 3.4
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 458 532 559 601 666 725 1.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 923 1,049 1,094 1,170 1,265 1,373 1.6

a

Table H7. World Total Net Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2005-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,054 4,294 4,485 4,723 4,973 5,235 1.0
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 610 672 741 793 836 880 1.5
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 256 316 381 439 505 3.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,304 3,696 3,971 4,213 4,439 4,666 1.4
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,669 1,845 1,996 2,077 2,147 2,239 1.2
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,025 1,097 1,138 1,160 1,176 1,192 0.6
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 448 536 573 603 653 2.3
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,859 10,764 11,510 12,188 12,834 13,525 1.3
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,498 1,801 2,140 2,386 2,608 2,846 2.6
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 884 1,059 1,265 1,409 1,539 1,677 2.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 614 741 874 977 1,069 1,169 2.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,917 5,925 7,828 9,565 11,280 12,906 4.9
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,368 3,921 5,212 6,428 7,660 8,814 5.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 662 919 1,197 1,444 1,677 1,891 4.3
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 886 1,084 1,419 1,693 1,944 2,200 3.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603 742 845 934 1,033 1,132 2.6
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533 649 799 956 1,062 1,138 3.1
Central and South America . . . . . . 905 1,118 1,289 1,445 1,583 1,716 2.6
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392 497 606 699 791 880 3.2
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,455 10,234 12,902 15,286 17,565 19,738 4.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,315 20,998 24,412 27,474 30,399 33,264 2.6

a

Appendix H
Table H8. World Net Liquids-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country,
2005-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 195 126 123 123 125 123 -1.8
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 55 57 60 64 66 -2.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 13 12 11 10 8 -2.2
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 57 55 52 51 48 -0.8
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 61 52 42 35 32 -3.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 92 81 69 58 46 -3.2
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 74 64 55 45 35 -3.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 17 15 14 12 10 -2.3
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 1 1 1 1 -0.7
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372 279 256 234 218 200 -2.4
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 57 49 46 45 42 39 -1.5
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 25 21 19 17 15 -2.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 24 25 26 26 24 -0.8
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 154 145 137 133 122 -1.1
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 43 41 39 38 35 -1.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 21 20 20 20 20 0.0
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 95 90 85 78 75 68 -1.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 241 262 282 303 323 1.6
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 56 51 46 43 37 -1.9
Central and South America . . . . . . 88 80 70 61 53 43 -2.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 8 8 7 7 7 -0.8
Other Central and South America . . 80 72 62 53 45 36 -3.1
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 584 579 576 571 574 563 -0.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 956 858 831 804 791 764 -0.9

a

Table H9. World Net Natural-Gas-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and
Country, 2005-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 877 1,062 1,147 1,158 1,162 1,216 1.3
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 756 908 905 833 768 741 -0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 52 78 95 106 118 4.2
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 102 164 230 288 357 6.3
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 710 940 1,249 1,533 1,697 1,863 3.9
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352 447 526 554 579 597 2.1
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 315 348 367 374 379 1.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 89 123 126 137 141 3.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,939 2,449 2,922 3,246 3,438 3,675 2.6
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 506 728 885 997 1,104 1,202 3.5
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350 456 590 646 721 774 3.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 272 295 351 383 427 4.1
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392 605 962 1,353 1,549 1,713 6.1
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 82 149 232 253 270 6.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 86 148 213 278 313 9.2
Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 306 437 665 908 1,018 1,130 5.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 439 512 578 653 731 3.2
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 211 310 448 516 573 6.5
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 75 102 115 134 151 7.3
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,483 2,241 3,002 3,767 4,267 4,714 4.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,422 4,691 5,925 7,013 7,705 8,389 3.7

a

Appendix H
Table H10. World Net Coal-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country,
2005-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,014 2,055 2,182 2,357 2,575 2,836 1.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 102 102 102 102 102 0.0
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 47 46 46 46 46 0.5
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 980 1,097 1,083 1,069 1,055 1,044 0.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 656 697 720 727 741 780 0.7
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303 298 293 287 282 277 -0.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 192 209 207 209 234 1.8
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,792 3,998 4,133 4,302 4,519 4,808 1.0
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 214 255 299 299 374 2.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 178 279 288 330 382 3.1
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,636 4,235 5,633 6,780 8,034 9,303 5.2
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,835 3,245 4,368 5,382 6,412 7,403 5.7
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 626 814 953 1,071 1,222 3.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 39 38 38 37 37 0.8
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 265 312 334 357 359 1.4
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 13 16 17 19 23 4.5
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,360 5,001 6,609 7,833 9,152 10,553 4.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,152 8,999 10,742 12,134 13,671 15,361 3.1

a

Table H11. World Net Nuclear Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country,
2005-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 880 917 931 998 1,048 1,063 0.8
United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 797 807 868 911 917 0.6
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 110 113 120 127 135 1.7
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 11 11 11 11 11 0.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 929 914 902 829 854 879 -0.2
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418 440 494 546 583 624 1.6
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278 299 319 336 358 381 1.3
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 142 175 210 225 243 2.2
Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,227 2,271 2,326 2,373 2,485 2,565 0.6
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 155 190 236 293 305 3.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 134 136 172 180 180 1.5
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 150 293 446 573 643 7.5
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 65 164 267 351 410 8.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 37 66 104 134 149 9.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 6 6 6 6 —
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 14 15 15 21 21 2.2
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 15 18 22 22 22 1.8
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399 476 669 910 1,106 1,189 4.4
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,626 2,747 2,996 3,283 3,591 3,754 1.4

a

Appendix H
Table H12. World Net Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Electricity Generation From Central Producers
by Region and Country, 2005-2030
Percent Change,
Region/Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030
OECD
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 779 913 1,012 1,113 1,190 1,236 1.9
a
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 478 534 604 655 675 2.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363 395 436 466 491 517 1.4
Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 40 41 43 44 45 0.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611 685 686 741 797 848 1.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 168 176 180 186 193 1.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 111 114 116 118 120 0.8
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 9 13 17 21 25 8.2
Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,530 1,766 1,873 2,034 2,174 2,277 1.6
Non-OECD
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 209 209 209 209 209 1.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 134 139 139 152 157 0.9
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 622 781 796 849 991 1,125 2.4
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 486 490 508 605 696 2.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 149 150 155 173 187 2.4
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 24 27 30 33 36 2.6
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 103 111 113 125 148 2.0
Central and South America . . . . . . 620 686 764 864 956 1,045 2.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 386 463 537 608 678 2.8
Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,630 1,937 2,045 2,205 2,466 2,719 2.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,160 3,703 3,918 4,239 4,640 4,996 1.8

a

Appendix I
Comparisons With International Energy Agency
and IEO2007 Projections
Within the OECD country group, the IEA projections of

Comparisons with IEA’s growth in energy demand for the United States surpass
World Energy Outlook 2007 the upper bound of the range defined by the IEO2008
low and high economic growth cases for the United
The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World
States (in part because the IEA reference scenario does
Energy Outlook 2007 provides projections comparable
not incorporate provisions of the U.S. Energy Independ-
with those in IEO2008. Because IEA releases projections
ence and Security Act of 2007 [EISA2007], which was
only for the years 2015 and 2030, two time periods are
enacted after the IEA projections were released) and for
compared here—2005 to 2015 and 2015 to 2030.
Japan. Differences in the near-term outlook for both
countries also reflect different projections for world oil
In the 2005 to 2015 projection period, the IEA reference
prices, which in 2010 are about 25 percent higher in the
scenario reflects growth that more closely resembles the
IEO2008 reference case than in the IEA reference
IEO2008 high economic growth case than its reference
scenario.
case. Both the IEA reference scenario and the IEO2008
high economic growth case project increases in world Both outlooks project much faster growth in energy
energy consumption that average 2.3 percent per year, demand among the non-OECD nations than in the
compared with 2.0 percent in the IEO2008 reference case OECD, and both have similar projections for growth in
(Table I1). There are large differences between the IEA non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. IEO2008 projects 1.6-
reference scenario and the IEO2008 reference case pro- percent average annual growth in energy use from 2005
jections for both the OECD and non-OECD countries. to 2015, and IEA projects 1.7-percent annual growth. For
Table I1. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2005-2015
(Average Annual Percent Growth)
IEO2008 IEA Reference
Region Low Growth Reference High Growth Scenario
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2
Other North America . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.8
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1
Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.0
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.4
Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.7
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7
Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.3
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.7
Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . 3.0 3.3 3.7 2.9
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.9
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.7 3.1 1.8
Central and South America . . . . 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.3
Sources: IEO2008: Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Energy Projections Plus (2008). IEA: International Energy
Agency, World Energy Outlook 2007 (Paris, France, November 2007), pp. 592-630.

China and the Middle East, IEA projects much faster to 2030 is lower than projected in the IEO2008 low eco-
growth than IEO2008 from 2005 to 2015. In each case, nomic growth case. For India, the IEA reference scenario
IEA’s projected growth rates are higher than those in the projects 3.7-percent annual growth in energy use from
IEO2008 high economic growth case. On the other hand, 2005 to 2015 and 3.5-percent growth from 2015 to 2030,
IEA’s projected 2.9-percent average annual growth rate whereas IEO2008 shows the growth rate slowing to 2.4
for energy consumption in “other non-OECD Asia” percent per year from 2015 to 2030.
(excluding China and India) over the same period is
IEA’s optimism regarding demand growth in the Mid-
lower than the projection of 3.3 percent per year in the
dle East continues to the end of the projection period,
IEO2008 reference case and, in fact, falls below the pro-
with energy use in the region increasing by an average of
jected growth rate in the IEO2008 low economic growth
2.3 percent per year from 2015 to 2030. IEO2008, how-
case. Similarly, IEA projects a modest 1.8-percent annual
ever, projects average increases of just 1.5 percent per
increase in Africa’s energy use from 2005 to 2015, com-
year over the same period in the reference case. The IEA
pared with 2.7 percent per year in the IEO2008 reference
growth rate for the period is higher than projected in the
case.
IEO2008 high economic growth case.
In the later years of the projections, IEO2008 and IEA The projections vary not only with respect to levels of
generally agree, with worldwide energy demand grow- total world energy demand but also with respect to the
ing by 1.4 percent per year between 2015 and 2030 in mix of primary energy inputs. In the 2005 to 2015 period,
both outlooks (Table I2). Both outlooks anticipate simi- IEA expects faster growth in fossil fuel use and slower
lar regional growth over the 2015 to 2030 period. The growth in the use of non-fossil fuels than does IEO2008
largest regional differences between the two projections (Table I3). For nuclear power consumption, the growth
are for China, India, and the Middle East. IEA antici- rate projected by IEA is below the projection in the
pates that China’s energy demand growth will slow to IEO2008 low economic growth case, largely as a result of
2.0 percent per year for the final 15 years of the outlook, different assumptions about nuclear power in China. In
whereas the IEO2008 reference case shows China main- the IEO2008 reference case, China’s nuclear capacity
taining a 2.7-percent annual growth rate in energy additions from 2005 to 2015 are nearly double the IEA
demand through the end of the projection period. The projection (15 gigawatts and 8 gigawatts net new capac-
IEA growth projection for energy use in China from 2015 ity, respectively).
Table I2. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2015-2030
Region Low Growth Reference High Growth Scenario
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.6
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.8
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.7
Other North America . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.3
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.1
Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.0
Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.8
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.9
Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.2
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.7 3.1 2.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.5
Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . 1.8 2.4 2.9 1.9
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.3
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.6 2.1 1.8
Central and South America . . . . 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.4

The IEA projection for worldwide growth in coal con- projected to be 563 quadrillion Btu, as compared with
sumption from 2005 to 2015 is bullish in comparison 559 quadrillion Btu in IEO2007 (Table I5). There are,
with the IEO2008 projection, especially for China and however, some regional differences between the two
India. IEA projects average annual growth of 5.5 percent IEOs. In IEO2008, total energy consumption for the
in China’s coal demand from 2005 to 2015, compared OECD countries in 2015 is about 5 quadrillion Btu lower
with 4.4 percent per year in the IEO2008 reference case. than was projected in IEO2007. Most (3 quadrillion Btu)
Similarly, India’s coal use grows by 4.7 percent per year of the difference is attributed to lower demand in the
in the IEA reference scenario from 2005 to 2015, com- United States. The explanation for the lower U.S. con-
pared with 2.9 percent per year in the IEO2008 reference sumption is twofold—the projection for average annual
case. GDP growth from 2005 to 2015 is 0.3 percentage points
lower in IEO2008 than was projected in IEO2007, and the
For the period from 2015 to 2030, IEO2008 and IEA are IEO2008 reference case reflects the impact of EISA2007,
largely in agreement. The only exception is nuclear especially with respect to efficiency gains in the building
power, for which the IEA growth projection falls signifi- sector.
cantly below that in the IEO2008 low economic growth
case (Table I4). In the IEA projection, the average annual For the non-OECD countries, the largest differences
growth rate for world nuclear electricity consumption between the projections for 2015 in IEO2008 and
slows from 1.1 percent in the 2005 to 2015 period to 0.4 IEO2007 involve China. In IEO2008, China’s projected
percent in the 2015 to 2030 period. IEO2008 projects total energy use in 2015 is 7 quadrillion Btu higher than
average increases of 1.4 percent per year from 2005 to projected in IEO2007. IEO2008 assumes more rapid eco-
2015 and 1.5 percent per year from 2015 to 2030. nomic growth for China between 2005 and 2015 than
was assumed in IEO2007—8.4 percent per year versus
7.8 percent per year—because China’s economic growth
Comparisons With IEO2007 has continued to grow more strongly than anticipated in
The IEO2008 outlook for total energy consumption in the IEO2007 projection. Whereas IEO2007 expected GDP
2015 is largely the same as the outlook in IEO2007. In growth to average 10.5 percent in 2006 and then fall
IEO2008, total marketed energy consumption in 2015 is gradually through 2010, revisions to the short-term
Table I3. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2005-2015
Fuel Low Growth Reference High Growth Scenario
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.7
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.1
Renewable/Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.1
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.3
Note: In the IEA projections, Renewable/Other includes traditional biomass.
Table I4. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2015-2030
Fuel Low Growth Reference High Growth Scenario
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.1
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.7
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.5
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 2.0 0.4
Renewable/Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.8 2.2 1.7
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.4
Note: In the IEA projections, Renewable/Other includes traditional biomass.

projections in IEO2008 include increases in China’s GDP IEO2008 projections for worldwide consumption of liq-
to 11.1 percent in 2006 and 11.5 percent in 2007, before it uid fuels and other petroleum are 3 quadrillion Btu
begins to slow from 2008 through 2010. lower in 2015 and 10 quadrillion Btu lower in 2030 than
in IEO2007. The difference can be explained by the
The near-term differences between the IEO2008 and higher world oil prices in IEO2008 and also by the large
IEO2007 projections are carried through to 2030. The downward revision in U.S. liquids demand. In 2030, U.S.
IEO2008 reference case projection for total energy use liquids consumption is 16 percent lower in IEO2008 than
worldwide in 2030 is 7 quadrillion Btu (about 1 percent) it was in IEO2007 because of the combination of slower
lower than the IEO2007 projection. Again, the largest projected economic growth, higher world oil prices, and
regional differences between the 2030 projections are for the impacts of EISA2007.
the United States and China. In the IEO2008 reference
case, U.S. GDP is projected to increase at an average rate There are also differences between the IEO2008 and
of 2.4 percent per year from 2015 to 2030, 0.5 percentage IEO2007 projections for consumption of the other fossil
points lower than the GDP growth rate projected for the fuels: coal consumption is higher in IEO2008 and natural
United States in IEO2007. In addition, the impacts of the gas consumption lower. The increase in coal use is attrib-
EISA2007 legislation are fully realized in the 2030 projec- utable largely to higher projected demand in China,
tion, including increases in the corporate average fuel based on the strong increase in its consumption during
efficiency standards for U.S. motor vehicles that reduce the historical base year (2005). China’s coal consumption
demand for liquids in the long-term projection. The ref- increased by 13 percent from 2004 to 2005, and as a
erence case projection for U.S. total energy use in 2030 is result, even though its coal use is projected to grow at
13 quadrillion Btu (10 percent) lower in IEO2008 than approximately the same rate as in last year’s outlook,
was projected in IEO2007. For China, total projected coal consumption in China in 2030 is about 9 percent (8
energy consumption in 2030 is 10 quadrillion Btu higher quadrillion Btu) higher than in the IEO2007 projection.
in IEO2008 than it was in IEO2007, largely because the For natural gas demand, nearly two-thirds of the
large short-term increments in energy use carry over decrease in IEO2008 from IEO2007 can be attributed to
into the long-term projection. lower demand in the United States. Higher natural gas
prices and the absence of legislation that would limit the
Along with regional differences between the IEO2008 expansion of coal-fired generation mean that coal is
and IEO2007 projections, there are some differences more competitive economically for electricity genera-
between the two projections in the mix of energy tion in the United States, so that coal displaces natural
resources expected to be consumed (Table I6). The gas use in the later years of the IEO2008 projection.
Table I5. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEO2007 Total World Energy Consumption, Reference Case,
2015 and 2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
2015 2030 Change in IEO2008
Region IEO2008 IEO2007 IEO2008 IEO2007 2015 2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 265 286 298 -5 -12
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 137 149 162 -5 -13
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 112 118 131 -5 -13
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 86 92 89 1 3
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 42 45 47 -1 -2
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303 294 409 404 8 5
Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 59 59 69 72 0 -2
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 97 155 145 7 10
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 22 33 32 2 1
Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . 37 36 52 50 1 2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 29 37 38 0 -1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 19 24 25 0 -1
Central and South America . . . . 31 31 38 41 -1 -3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563 559 695 702 4 -7
Sources: IEO2008: Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Energy Projections Plus (2008). IEO2007: EIA, International
Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0484(2007) (Washington, DC, May 2007), Table A1, p. 83.

The projections for nuclear power in IEO2008 are largely kilowatthours to Btu. For renewables, the IEO2008
unchanged on a Btu basis from those in IEO2007. In demand projection for 2030 is more than 10 percent
2030, total net nuclear power generation worldwide on a higher than the IEO2007 projection. The increase is a
kilowatthour basis is actually 4 percent higher in result of higher fossil fuel prices and additional govern-
IEO2008 than in IEO2007, but the difference is masked ment policies aimed at expanding renewable energy
by a revision in the conversion factors used to convert use.
Table I6. Comparison of IEO2008 and IEO2007 World Energy Consumption by Fuel, Reference Case,
2015 and 2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
2015 2030 Change in IEO2008
Fuel IEO2008 IEO2007 IEO2008 IEO2007 2015 2030
Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 198 229 239 -3 -10
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 134 165 170 0 -6
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 152 202 199 6 3
Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 33 39 40 -1 0
Renewable/Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 43 59 53 2 6
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563 559 695 702 4 -7
Sources: IEO2008: Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Energy Projections Plus (2008). IEO2007: EIA, International
Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0484(2007) (Washington, DC, May 2007), Table A2, pp. 84-85.

Appendix J
Models Used To Generate the IEO2008 Projections
services are represented for each mode, such as light-

World Energy Projections Plus duty vehicles, two/three-wheel vehicles, heavy trucks,
(WEPS+) passenger rail, and freight rail. WEPS+ separates service
The IEO2008 projections of world energy consumption demand (e.g., road travel by cars, commercial trucks,
and supply were generated from EIA’s World Energy and heavy trucks) from vehicle efficiency and bases the
Projections Plus (WEPS+) model. WEPS+ is a system of projections on economic growth (as measured by GDP)
sectoral energy models that provide a loosely linked, and fuel prices.
integrated equilibrium modeling system. It is used pri- A more detailed representation of the industrial sectors
marily to provide alternative energy projections based in China and India is incorporated into WEPS+. These
on different assumptions for GDP growth and fossil fuel projections are based on an econometric estimation of
prices. The WEPS+ common platform allows the models historical consumption patterns at a nine-industry level
to communicate with each other and provides a compre- of detail. End-use electricity consumption was analyzed
hensive, central series of output reports for analysis. For in detail across several sectors and for the major electric-
IEO2008, WEPS+ incorporates a separate transportation ity-consuming regions, and a module incorporating the
sector model with an extensive level of detail for modes analysis was included in WEPS+.
and vehicle types. WEPS+ also incorporates some addi-
tional detail on industrial energy use in China and India, Although the modeling was extended in several areas of
additional detail on end-use electricity consumption, WEPS+, in the remaining core sections WEPS+ is a
and an interface to the System for the Analysis of Global microeconomic model, used primarily to provide alter-
Energy Markets/Global Electricity Module (see below) native energy projections under different assumptions
for generation, capacity, and fuel consumption in the about GDP growth and fossil fuel prices. It serves as a
electricity sector. repository for reference case output generated from
complex models that focus on specific supply or
WEPS+ produces projections for 16 regions or countries demand series. The reference case reflects output from
of the world, including North America (United States, those models and incorporates analysts’ judgment on
Canada, and Mexico), OECD Europe, OECD Asia the potential for demand by end-use sector and fuel type
(Japan, South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand), Rus- on a regional basis. After the reference case is estab-
sia, other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, China, India, lished, WEPS+ is used to calculate coefficients for the
other non-OECD Asia, Brazil, and other Central and response surface, which are saved in a database. The ref-
South America. Currently, the projections extend to erence case output tables reflect the same information
2030. that is embedded in the input tables. Alternative cases
reflect different assumptions about future economic
In some individual models, the detail also extends to the
growth and energy prices. When an alternative case is
subsector level. For each end-use sector, WEPS+ projects
run, the model uses the previously calculated coeffi-
consumption of the key primary energy sources: liquid
cients to produce new projections relative to changes in
fuels and other petroleum, natural gas, coal, nuclear
GDP and energy prices and produces output tables that
power, and hydroelectricity and other renewables. The
reflect the changes.
model also provides intermediate consumption projec-
tions for electricity in the end-use demand sectors. The
model projections generally are dependent on aggregate
System for the Analysis of Global
supply prices, GDP levels, and population. Supply pro- Energy Markets/Global Electricity
jections are also made for the key supply sources corre- Module (SAGE/GEM)
sponding to the primary consumption sources. The
modeling system accounts for projections of economic SAGE/GEM is a regional model that provides a technol-
activity represented by GDP, population, and world ogy-rich basis for estimating regional electricity con-
energy prices. Carbon dioxide emissions from the com- sumption. For each region, SAGE/GEM inputs
bustion of fossil fuels are also calculated by region. reference case estimates of electricity demand (e.g., com-
mercial, industrial, residential, and transportation) that
WEPS+ includes a detailed model of the world’s trans- were developed on the basis of economic and demo-
portation sector, which provides projections by four graphic projections in WEPS+. Projections of electricity
transport modes: road, rail, water, and air. A variety of generation in SAGE/GEM to meet the electricity

demands are estimated on the basis of each region’s model documentation section of “Current Publications”
existing electricity use patterns (load shape), the existing (www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html). SAGE docu-
stock of electricity generation equipment, the character- mentation is also available as part of the documentation
istics of available new electricity generation technolo- for the MARKAL family of models (www.etsap.org/
gies, and fuel supply (prices and production). MRKLDOC-III_SAGE.pdf).
Period-by-period market simulations aim to provide Generate World Oil Balance Model
each region’s electricity generation services at minimum
cost. Nine load slices are modeled (summer, winter, and (GWOB)
intermediate seasons for base, intermediate, and peak The projections for world liquids production in IEO2008
loads). SAGE/GEM also allows energy commodities to reflect an assessment of world oil supply—based on cur-
be traded between regions. Inventories of existing gen- rent production capacity, planned future additions to
eration technologies by plant type and region are capacity, resource data, geopolitical constraints, and
derived from Platts’ UDI World Electric Power Plants prices—that is used to generate conventional crude oil
Database.24 Generation and consumption for historical production cases. The scenarios (price cases) are devel-
years are calibrated with historical data from EIA and oped through an iterative process of examining demand
the International Energy Agency. Resource availability levels at given prices and considering the price and
for fossil fuels is provided by WEPS+ and translated into income sensitivity on both the demand and supply sides
supply curves for use in SAGE/GEM, taking into con- of the equation. Projections of conventional liquids pro-
sideration fuel consumed in non-electricity sectors. duction for 2008 through 2015 are based on analysis of
Renewable resource availability is derived from analyst investment and development trends around the globe.
reviews of regional data. Data from EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook are inte-
grated to ensure consistency between short- and
SAGE/GEM is a simplified subset of the SAGE model- long-term modeling efforts. Projections of unconven-
ing system. A full description of the SAGE model is tional liquids production are based on exogenous
available in a two-volume set. The first volume provides analysis.
a general understanding of the model’s design, theoreti-
cal basis, necessary user-defined assumptions, and out- Nine major streams of liquids production are tracked on
put. It also lists the software necessary to develop and a volume basis: (1) crude oil and lease condensate, (2)
analyze the results of SAGE-based policy and energy natural gas plant liquids, (3) refinery gains, (4) Canadian
market scenarios. In addition, Volume I includes a Ref- oil sands, (5) extra-heavy oils, (6) coal-to-liquids, (7)
erence Guide, which explains each equation in detail. gas-to-liquids, (8) shale oils, and (9) biofuels (tracked on
The second volume serves as a User’s Guide for those both a volume basis and an oil equivalent basis).
actively developing SAGE-based scenario analyses. The Biofuels are reported in terms of barrels of oil equiva-
documentation is available on EIA’s web site in the lent, unless otherwise stated.
24 Platts, Energy Markets Data: UDI Data and Directories, “World Electric Power Plants Database,” web site www.platts.com.

Appendix K
Regional Definitions
The six basic country groupings used in this report - Non-OECD Asia (53 percent of the 2008 world
(Figure K1) are defined as follows: population)—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,
Brunei, Cambodia (Kampuchea), China, Fiji,
•OECD (18 percent of the 2008 world population):
French Polynesia, Guam, Hong Kong, India,
North America—United States, Canada, and
Indonesia, Kiribati, Laos, Malaysia, Macau,
Mexico; OECD Europe—Austria, Belgium, Czech
Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nauru,
Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Nepal, New Caledonia, Niue, North Korea,
Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxem-
Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa,
bourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Taiwan,
Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and
Thailand, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Vietnam.
the United Kingdom. OECD Asia—Japan, South
Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. - Middle East (3 percent of the 2008 world popula-
tion)—Bahrain, Cyprus, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan,
•Non-OECD (82 percent of the 2008 world popula- Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
tion): Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
- Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (5 percent of - Africa (14 percent of the 2008 world popula-
the 2008 world population)—Albania, Armenia, tion)—Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central
Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo (Brazza-
Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malta, ville), Congo (Kinshasa), Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti,
Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon,
Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya,
Uzbekistan. Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali,
Figure K1. Map of the Six Basic Country Groupings
e
OECD
Non-OECD Europe a nd Eura s ia
Non-OECD As ia
Middle Ea s t
Africa
Ce ntra l a nd S outh Ame rica
Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand,
Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Reunion, Rwanda, Sao Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, North Korea,
Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Papua
Leone, Somalia, South Africa, St. Helena, Sudan, New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland,
Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Saint
Western Sahara, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevia, Samoa, Saudi Arabia,
Senegal, Serbia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore,
- Central and South America (7 percent of the 2008
Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, South Africa,
world population)—Antarctica, Antigua and
South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, St. Vincent/
Barbuda, Argentina, Aruba, Bahama Islands,
Grenadines, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Sweden,
Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, British Virgin
Switzerland, Syria, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo,
Islands, Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa
Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkmen-
Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic,
istan, Tuvalu, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab
Ecuador, El Salvador, Falkland Islands, French
Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Uzbekistan,
Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala,
Vanuatu, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, and Zambia.
Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique,
Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, •Annex I Countries participating in the Kyoto
Panama Republic, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Climate Change Protocol on Greenhouse Gas Emis-
St. Kitts-Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent/Grenadines, sions: Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria,
Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia,
Caicos Islands, Uruguay, U.S. Virgin Islands, and European Community, Finland, France, Germany,
Venezuela. Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan,
Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg,
In addition, the following commonly used country Monaco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway,
groupings are referenced in this report: Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia,
•Countries that have ratified, accepted, acceded, or Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine,
approved the Kyoto Climate Change Protocol on and the United Kingdom.25
Greenhouse Gas Emissions as of April 17, 2008:
•European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria,
Albania, Algeria, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda,
Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia,
Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary,
Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg,
Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and
Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania,
Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burkina
Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United
Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Cape
Kingdom.
Verde, Central African Republic, Chile, China,
Colombia, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo •G8: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia,
(Kinshasa), Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, United Kingdom, and the United States.
Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark,
•North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador,
Member Countries: Canada, Mexico, and the United
Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea,
States.
Estonia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Finland, France, Gabon,
Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, •Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, (OPEC): Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran,
Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, India, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
Jordan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan,
•Pacific Rim Developing Countries: Hong Kong,
Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South
Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia,
Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.
Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali,
Malta, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, •Persian Gulf Countries: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,
Mexico, Micronesia, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab
Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Emirates.
25 Turkey is an Annex I nation that has not ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change and did not commit to quantifiable
emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol. In 2001, the United States withdrew from the Protocol.

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DOE/EIA-0484(2008)

Energy Information Administration

This publication is on the WEB at:

World Energy Demand

Electronic Access and Related Reports

National Energy Information Center, EI-30

Telephone: 202/586-8800 E-mail: [email protected]

ii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Transportation Sector Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 iii

1. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 2005-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

iv Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 v

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 vii

viii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Objectives of the IEO2008 Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 ix

x Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

200 Natural Gas Renewables

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 1

2 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 3

4 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 5

China and India—the fastest growing non-OECD econo-

Table 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2005-2030

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 7

8 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

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10 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

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14 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

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16 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Major Sources of Uncertainty Figure 17. World Marketed Energy Consumption

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18 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

6 Gross 4 Energy Use

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 19

20 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

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Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 23

24 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Residential OECD Europe

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 25

26 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

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28 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

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30 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

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32 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 33

Petroleum-Initially-In-Place Resource Estimates Used in the IEO2008 Reference Case

34 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 35

In 2005, natural-gas-fired plants accounted for 19 per-