Scenario Analysis in Spreadsheets with Excel's

Scenario Tool
Ina S. Markham And Susan W. Palocsay
James Madison University
College of Business
Cis & Ms Dept., Msc 0202
Harrisonburg, VA 22807
[email protected]
[email protected]
Abstract
"What-if" or sensitivity analysis is one of the most important and valuable concepts in management science
(MS). To emphasize its practical relevance in a business environment, we teach students in our introductory
MS course to analyze "scenarios" with Excel's built-in Scenario tool. This paper demonstrates the application
of the Scenario tool with several examples.
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1. Introduction
The immense popularity of Microsoft Excel throughout
the business world today for processing quantitative
data and developing analytical solutions is widely
acknowledged. As a result, management science (MS)
educators have shifted from teaching the detailed steps
of algorithms towards spreadsheet-based quantitative
analysis (Grossman, 2001; Powell, 2001; Ragsdale,
2001). The new standards for MS recently set by the
Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business
(AACSB) support the view that business graduates
need analytical tools and concepts that are important
for managerial decision-making, for long-term success
in their careers (Horner, 2003). However, it is impera-
tive that MS educators continue to demonstrate the
relevance of MS in the business world and to make
connections with the other disciplines in business
schools.
At our institution, the undergraduate business students
are required to take an introductory MS course, with
emphasis on end-user modeling and analysis. The
course is spreadsheet-based and includes modules on
breakeven analysis, linear programming, decision
analysis, queuing, simulation, and forecasting. We
have increased the emphasis on sensitivity analysis in
several of the modules by introducing the use of "sce-
narios" with Excel's built-in Scenario tool. Students
learn to take full advantage of the spreadsheet to create
and analyze scenarios addressing various what-if
questions about the results from a model. Since these
skills are applicable to any worksheet with formulas
constructed for a particular set of calculations, students
can carry their ability to perform sensitivity analysis
over to other business classes, such as finance and
marketing research, and ultimately, into the workplace.
Scenarios can be defined as descriptions of fundamen-
tally different future states of an organization's envi-
ronment considering possible developments of rele-
vant interdependent factors (Brauers and Weber, 1988).
The use of scenarios as a tool for problem-solving can
be seen as early as 1942 in experiments done at Los
Alamos in support of the development of an atomic
bomb. Since it was not feasible to wait until sufficient
quantities of uranium material were available to per-
form traditional experiments, scientists undertook
"let's pretend studies of dummies built up within a
framework of theory" (Davis, 1968, p. 166). Following
the Second World War, scenario techniques were de-
veloped and used by the RAND Corporation for U.S.
military strategy planning. These techniques were
applied to public policy decisions starting in the 1960s,
and eventually began to spread to the business com-
munity as long range planning tools (Bradfield et al.,
2005). Linneman and Klein (1983) found that fifty
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Scenario Analysis in Spreadsheets with Excel's Scenario Tool
percent of Fortune 1000 companies used scenarios as
a business forecasting tool between 1977 and 1981.
Since then, increased uncertainty, globalization, and
complexity in the business environment have led other
companies to incorporate scenario planning into their
strategic decision-making process (Schoemaker, 1993).
It is by studying scenarios that managers become better
prepared to make informed decisions that take possible
future developments into account (Bunn and Salo,
1993).
From the MS perspective, scenarios are recognized as
one type of sensitivity or "what-if" analysis. The
treatment of sensitivity analysis in the new generation
of MS textbooks has been greatly expanded beyond
the traditional focus on linear programming parametric
ranges. Texts now contain numerous examples show-
ing how this important problem-solving concept can
be applied to spreadsheet models for a variety of MS
methods, using a host of built-in features and add-in
tools for Excel. The purpose of this paper is to promote
the use of the Excel Scenarios tool in the classroom as
an additional mechanism for communicating the vital
role of sensitivity analysis in the modeling process. A
review of the literature indicates that while some fac-
ulty may already be using this tool (Grinde and Kam-
mermeyer, 2003; Powell and Baker, 2004), coverage is
generally missing from MS textbooks. In this paper,
we demonstrate the tool with several example MS
models and highlight the pedagogical benefits of inte-
grating Excel's Scenario tool into an introductory MS
course.
2. Excel's Scenario Tool
What-if analysis is a critical part of the problem-solving
process and MS textbooks make frequent use of Excel
"data tables" to run a model with varying sets of data
for input variables in order to study the effects on the
output variable(s) (e.g., Ragsdale, 2004; Winston and
Albright, 2001). However, sometimes it is more appro-
priate to consider the effects of a set of input values
taken together to represent an alternative option about
the future decision-making environment (Powell and
Baker, 2004). The Scenario tool in Excel was designed
to manage what-if analysis by permanently storing
the combinations of input values. It also supports their
retrieval at any time for the automatic generation of a
summary report that details each scenario for a side-
by-side comparison. We first became interested in this
tool after reading an article that appeared in PC Mag-
azine (Bradley, 2001).
Our initial experiments with using scenarios were in
the context of breakeven analysis. Breakeven analysis
is the first modeling exercise we conduct in the MS
course and we found that the Scenarios tool could
easily be incorporated at this point (Weida, et al., 2001).
Most of our students have been previously exposed
to breakeven analysis in other courses such as eco-
nomics or accounting and are familiar with the con-
cepts of fixed and variable costs, revenues, profit, and
breakeven points. While the mathematical aspects of
these problems are relatively simple, they provide an
opportunity to explain the basic components of a
model and present guidelines for building effective
spreadsheet implementations. For breakeven analysis,
we use scenarios in addition to both data tables and
the Goal Seek tool in Excel to demonstrate the benefits
of spreadsheet modeling and to discuss the need for
what-if analysis in business decision making. This al-
lows us to introduce the concept of sensitivity analysis
from the very beginning of the course, before we get
to more difficult MS models such as linear programs.
3. Breakeven Example using Scenarios
Consider the example on breakeven analysis at Great
Threads (Chapter 2 in Winston and Albright, 2001), a
company that sells hand-knit sweaters. The company
is planning to print a brochure of its products and
undertake a direct mail campaign. The cost of running
the printing press for the brochure is $20,000. There is
also a $0.10 cost per catalog. The cost of mailing each
catalog is $0.15. In addition, the company will include
direct reply envelopes in its mailings. It incurs $0.20
in extra cost for each direct mail envelope that is used
by a respondent. The average size of a customer order
is $40, and the company's variable cost per order aver-
ages around 80% of the order's value. The company
plans to mail 100,000 catalogs and they believe they
will have a response rate of 8%. A spreadsheet model
for this problem is shown in Figure 1
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Scenario Analysis in Spreadsheets with Excel's Scenario Tool
Figure 1: Worksheet for breakeven model.(Breakeven_GreatThreads_Scenarios.xls)
Formulas for the breakeven number of responses and
the breakeven response rate are included in the
worksheet so that their values can be computed under
different assumptions for model inputs. Students often
have difficulty developing a formula for the breakeven
point when there are multiple sources of fixed or
variable costs, although they can readily solve for its
value algebraically in a specific instance. Creating this
formula in Excel requires a clear understanding of the
order of mathematical operations and, therefore, is a
challenging initial exercise in spreadsheet modeling
for students.
Before developing the scenarios, the spreadsheet cells
representing both model inputs and outputs are named
so that the summary report will be readable. Appro-
priate descriptive labels can be assigned to individual
cells using Insert/Name/Define from the main Excel
menu or entered directly into the Name Box at the left
of the formula toolbar. Without these cell range names,
the scenario summary report will only show the al-
phanumeric cell addresses for model parameters and
variables. A list of names can then be provided on the
model sheet for ease of reference, as shown in Figure
1, using Insert/Name/Paste. The Scenario Manager is
available from the Tools menu with a dialog box as
shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Scenario Manager.
With the current data values in the worksheet serving
as a base case, a scenario is "added" by providing a
descriptive name and identifying the cells that repre-
sent model inputs as "changing cells". (Note the com-
mon use of this term in the Goal Seek and Solver tools
as well.) We instruct students to select all model inputs
as changing cells, even when some of the values are
not changing, to give a complete description of the
assumptions being made for each scenario. For our
example, an optimistic scenario where the average
order is $45, the fixed cost of printing is $18,000, the
variable order cost percentage is 75%, and the response
rate is 9% is created, as illustrated in Figures 3 and 4.
A pessimistic scenario, with average order at $35, a
fixed printing cost of $22,000, a variable order cost
percentage of 85%, and a response rate of 7%, is also
added. All other inputs are held at the base rate for
this example.
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Scenario Analysis in Spreadsheets with Excel's Scenario Tool
Figure 3: Creation of a scenario.
Figure 4: Entering scenario input values.
Once all of the scenarios have been entered, model
inputs and outputs can be summarized in a report
created by the Scenario Manager in a new worksheet.
When "Summary" is selected in Figure 2, we specify
the type of report and identify the "results cells" (i.e.,
model outputs) in the dialog box in Figure 5. We intro-
duce the Scenario tool during the first week of class,
immediately after developing and solving a breakeven
analysis problem with Goal Seek. Yet we have discov-
ered that some students will still be confused about
which cells in the spreadsheet model should be
changing cells and which should be results cells, indi-
cating that a review of the basic components of a
model is worthwhile at this point.
Figure 5: Summarizing scenarios.
Figure 6: Scenario summary for breakeven model.
The report is automatically generated and placed in a
sheet named "Scenario Summary", formatted as shown
above in Figure 6. It provides a basis for discussing
the effects of various changes in model inputs on net
profit and the response rate required to break even.
Some students will recommend that company manage-
ment "choose" the optimistic scenario, which affords
an opportunity to stress the distinction between 'alter-
natives' and 'uncertainties' in decision making and to
point out the need for probability assessments of the
likelihoods of future scenarios. Using scenarios at the
beginning of the MS course gives students an initial
exposure to the MS problem-solving methodology and
sets the stage for learning about more sophisticated
MS modeling techniques such as optimization and
simulation. Another benefit is that it gives them prac-
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Scenario Analysis in Spreadsheets with Excel's Scenario Tool
tical, hands-on spreadsheet experience with built-in
Excel tools in the first two weeks, consequently increas-
ing the perceived value of MS and generating more
interest in the course.
4. Queuing Example using Scenarios
In order to reinforce the scenario analysis approach
and assure that the students become comfortable using
the Scenario tool, we apply it again in a later module
of the course on queuing theory. Consider the case of
the Bullseye Department store (Chapter 13 in Ragsdale,
2004), a discount retailer with over 50 stores that is
concerned with the truck loading operation at its
warehouse. The company is considering three alterna-
tives to the current situation of eight loading docks
with one worker at each dock. One alternative is to
hire an extra worker at each of the loading docks; a
second alternative is to use a single worker at each
dock but lease new forklifts to replace the existing
ones; and a third alternative is to build two new load-
ing docks and hire two new workers.
The spreadsheet model in Figure 7
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is developed by
modifying the queuing template Q.xls file provided
in Ragsdale (2004) to permit entering of the average
service time (rather than the rate) and to add formulas
for computing service, waiting, and total cost as a
function of the queuing configuration and the hourly
costs.
Then a scenario is defined for current operations and
for each of the three alternatives by specifying the ap-
propriate input values for the average service time,
number of docks (servers), and number of additional
workers, forklifts, and docks over current levels. The
resulting scenario summary is shown in Figure 8, and
clearly shows that only one of the alternatives, upgrad-
ing the forklift equipment, would lower the average
total cost.
Figure 7: Worksheet for queuing model.(Queuing_Bullseye_Scenarios.xls)
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Scenario Analysis in Spreadsheets with Excel's Scenario Tool
Figure 8: Scenario summary for queuing model.
In addition to the summary report, Excel will also
create a pivot table showing the scenario results as in
Figure 9. This interactive table permits alternative
views of the information, and can be used to generate
a corresponding pivot chart. Figure 10 presents the
total cost for each scenario in a graphical format that
shows the relative portions of cost attributed to pro-
viding service versus waiting time. The various scenar-
ios can also be viewed on the model worksheet at any
time using the Show button in the Scenario Manager
dialog box (Figure 2) or by adding a drop-down list
box to the toolbar (available in the Tools category on
the Command tab when customizing a toolbar) as
shown in the upper left of Figure 7.
Figure 9: PivotTable report for queuing model.
Figure 10: PivotChart for queuing model.
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Scenario Analysis in Spreadsheets with Excel's Scenario Tool
5. Decision Analysis Example using Sce-
narios
It is also possible to incorporate scenarios in a module
on decision analysis. The Dumond International case
study in Chapter 5 of Clemen and Reilly (2001) pro-
vides an excellent framework for scenario analysis. In
this problem, the company's board of directors must
decide whether to proceed with the development of
a new pesticide product to replace an old one or con-
tinue to rely on the current product which has been
very successful. Uncertainty about the current product
is due to the possibility that it could be banned because
there is some evidence it may create serious health
risks. Furthermore, the new product may fail to meet
the due date if development issues cannot be resolved
in time, and its future acceptance in the pesticide
market is unknown.
The decision tree showing the alternatives and uncer-
tain issues in this situation was developed with the
TreePlan add-in for Excel (written by Mike Middleton,
University of San Francisco) and is shown in Figure
11
(3)
.
A formula was added below the decision tree to
translate the branch number associated with the opti-
mal decision into meaningful text. Based on initial es-
timates of probabilities and payoffs, the expected
profit for the new product is higher than that of the
current product and the recommendation is to go
ahead with the new product. However, four of the
board members have raised questions about some of
the probabilities and final outcome values.
Figure 11: Worksheet for decision tree model.(Deci-
sion_Tree_Dumond_Scenarios.xls)
We create a scenario for each member's suggested
changes to the model and for some combinations of
changes as indicated by their discussion in the case.
Figure 12 presents the scenario summary, which
should convince the board members that the new
product is the preferred choice since it has the maxi-
mum expected profit under each scenario. This result
is counter-intuitive to most students, giving them an
example where the optimal decision strategy is not
sensitive to proposed changes in the model assump-
tions. It is difficult for many students to understand
that making simultaneous changes in multiple model
values may not always affect the decision. This case
provides an excellent opportunity to demonstrate the
potential role of sensitivity analysis in settling disagree-
ments among decision makers in a group decision.
Figure 12: Scenario summary for decision tree model.
6. Limitations of Scenario Analysis and
the Scenario Tool
The most serious criticism of scenario analysis is that
it does not explicitly consider the probability of occur-
rence of different scenarios. This can potentially lead
to scenarios with low likelihoods being assigned too
much weight in the decision-making process. Pointing
out this limitation in the classroom provides a basis
for introducing expected value and/or simulation
analysis, where probability distributions are assigned
to key model parameters. For example, to illustrate
the stochastic nature of breakeven analysis, we can
specify probabilities for possible values of inputs that
are not under the control of the business and perform
a simulation of the required number of units to
breakeven (Doane, 2004).
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Scenario Analysis in Spreadsheets with Excel's Scenario Tool
There is also a practical limitation in the implementa-
tion of Excel's Scenario Manager that is worth noting
values must be typed into the dialog box for scenario
inputs (see Figure 4) and cannot be entered as cell
references. As a result, we are forced to embed numer-
ical data in the tool, violating a basic principle of good
spreadsheet design. In addition to permitting cell ref-
erences, the capabilities of the Scenario tool could be
further enhanced from an MS perspective by allowing
the user to enter discrete probability distributions for
cells corresponding to input variables in linear models
and then automatically calculating the expected value
of each output variable.
Another concern with the Scenario tool is its use of the
term "changing cells." In Solver and Goal Seek the term
is used for a cell that represents an unknown value to
be determined by the tool whereas in Scenario Manag-
er it represents a cell for which the user supplies a
value (i.e., a model parameter). While in both usages
the term is intuitive in the sense that a changing cell
is one whose value can be modified, there is a clear
difference between them. This distinction is obvious
to us but it may cause some students in an introductory
MS course to confuse the two concepts. Nevertheless,
this common terminology supports a direct link be-
tween the Solver and the Scenario tools. In the Solver
Result box, the user can select "Save Scenario" to save
the optimal decision variable values as the changing
cells of a particular scenario. In a typical product-mix
linear program, this option automatically designates
the cells for total profit (objective function) and the
quantities of resources used (constraint left-hand-sides)
as the scenario's result cells. If a model is solved repeat-
edly with different parameter values, the optimal re-
sults can be saved for a series of scenarios and summa-
rized later in a report generated by the Scenario tool.
7. Summary
We have been extremely pleased with the outcomes
from teaching the use of the Scenario tool in an intro-
ductory MS course. Students generally find scenario
analysis easy to understand but at the same time it
challenges them to specify assumptions, identify
model inputs and outputs, and think carefully about
their spreadsheet layout to design a single worksheet
that can be used to model multiple scenarios. Discus-
sion of scenarios for what-if analysis leads naturally
to other modeling techniques, such as optimization
and simulation, and conceptually links MS modeling
to the managerial decision making process. We recom-
mend adding Excel's Scenario Manager to students'
toolbox for analyzing business problems.
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