change, the Maldives and Tuvalu Kevin Jaschik nuances public affairs, Neue Grnstrae 17/18, Berlin 10179, Germany. E-mail: [email protected] Abstract This article examines whether small states against all (Realist) odds can have inuence on the international political agenda. A theoretical framework is developed grounded in agenda-setting theory and the literature on strategic framing, foreign policy analysis and advocacy networks, resulting in a process-oriented, constructivist approach to international agenda setting. This is used to address three propositions: rstly, small states do have inuence on the international agenda; secondly, they generate this inu- ence through strategic framing, and last, they enhance their inuence through alliances and advocacy networks. The theoretical framework is applied using two case studies: the small island states of the Maldives and Tuvalu in their ght against climate change. International Politics (2014) 51, 272293. doi:10.1057/ip.2014.5 Keywords: small states; strategic framing; agenda-setting; Maldives; Tuvalu; climate change Introduction In 2002, one of the smallest countries on earth dared to challenge the worlds most powerful one: the tiny, low-lying Pacic island nation of Tuvalu facing the potential threat of disappearance due to climate change and rising sea levels proclaimed to sue the United States before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for being the main contributor to global warming and for not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, which intends to reduce industrialized countries greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Apart from the legal intentions, the main reason for this announcement (which was eventually not put into practice) was to draw attention to the tremendous threat that Tuvalu and other small island developing states (SIDS) are facing in times of climate change and, in doing so, push the topic higher on the global agenda. 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 www.palgrave-journals.com/ip/ This incident raises various questions: How do apparently powerless countries make use of the international arena to inuence the international political agenda? Do their efforts yield results? If so, why? These questions are particularly relevant in a world of large and small, strong and weak nation-states, where Realism as the traditional theory of International Relations (still) has many supporters. They are also important because occurrences of global scope, for example concerning international security, the world economy or the environment, do have an impact on small states and their peoples, who, taken together, account for a considerable part of the world population. Having inuence on the international agenda could be seen as a step towards more global democracy, a world where also minority actors have a say. This article wants to answer the above questions by examining the case of vulnerable SIDS threatened by the impacts of climate change. It is an example of several extremes: Firstly, the possible ramications some SIDS are facing physical disappearance from earth through inundation, or, at an earlier stage already, a state of inhabitability are unprecedented in the history of nation- states and basically of mankind. The only analogy that comes to mind is that of mythical Atlantis. Secondly, the countries most in danger are those least responsible for the problem, as their own GHG emissions are negligible on a global scale. The main culprits in the global north face, albeit potentially severe, nonetheless much less dramatic consequences. It is therefore an extreme example of negative externalities. Thirdly, the discrepancy between the states in question (the victims and the causers) could not be bigger: On the one side some of the worlds smallest countries, both in terms of population and territory, such as Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and the Maldives; on the other side the largest and most powerful ones, particularly the United States, the European Union and its member states and, increasingly, also large developing countries such as China states that determine the fate of the world to a large extent. Lastly, as the industrialized world generates energy, produces goods, and moves from A to B largely by means of climate-affecting fossil fuels, the topic of climate change goes to the core of what we conventionally understand by developed human life. Changing this behavioral pattern requires a true paradigm shift. This combination of extremes turns the chosen example into a least-likely case: It is rather unlikely that under these conditions SIDS can be successful in position- ing the topic of climate change and the existential threat they deal with very high up on the international political agenda. Showing that they do have a certain inuence, however, would seriously undermine the Realist notion of hard power as the only determinant of global inuence. Literature Review Research on small (island) states initially looked into security and economic issues (Keohane, 1969; Katzenstein, 1985; Sutton and Payne, 1993) and had a particular Small states and international politicals 273 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 focus on development opportunities and threats (Lockhart et al (eds.), 1993; Briguglio, 1995; more recent: Douglas (ed.), 2006). As awareness of global warming grew, scholars started analyzing the social and environmental conse- quences for vulnerable SIDS (Lewis, 1990; Pernetta, 1992; more recent: Barnett and Campbell, 2010). Others pointed to possible international law implications should rising sea levels render low-lying island states uninhabitable (Menefee, 1991; Gillespie, 2003; Hestetune, 2010). According to Barnett and Adger (2003), who emphasized the possible sovereignty loss of atoll nations, the process within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) should result in new, norms-based international agenda-setting and decision-making institutions. Literature on small states in combination with international agenda setting, however, is scarce. When four SIDS joined the UN in 1999/2000, raising their number to 34, Grant (2000) assumed that this group of states would gain larger impact on the international agenda. Ashe et al (1999) and Betzold (2010) analyzed the inuence of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) within the UNFCCC. They concluded that SIDS were able to punch beyond their weight, hence supporting Habeebs (1988) and Zartman and Rubins (2000) positive views of the chances of less powerful states in asymmetrical negotiations. Closest to the study in hand with regard to the research idea (at an early stage of the UNFCCC process though), Shibuya (1996) described how Vanuatu tried to inuence the agenda concerning global warming. An Integrated Approach for International Politics As literature on international agenda setting in general, and with a focus on small states in particular, is scarce, for the purpose of this study it is necessary to develop an integrated theoretical framework for international agenda setting based on agenda- setting theory as overall framework, lled in with elements from strategic framing, foreign policy analysis and advocacy networks. The result is a process-oriented, constructivist approach to international agenda setting, which can be used for empirical testing. The article thus contributes to theory building and analytic generalization. First, however, it is worth getting a better understanding of what the international agenda actually is. The main contributors to agenda-setting theory, such as Kingdon (2003) and Baumgartner and Jones (1993), focus on domestic govern- mental agendas. Although domestic agenda topics can be relatively clearly spec- ied and assigned to the national government, there is no world government, and the decision-making venues in the international sphere are more diverse: The UN Security Council considers questions of peace and security; the G8/G20 the economy; the UNFCCC climate change, and so on. Sometimes venues are not Jaschik 274 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 institutionalized at all. This leads some to claim that there is no such thing as an international agenda (Rothman, 2007). However, one can hardly deny that issues such as terrorism or the functioning of the nancial markets have been on the international agenda over the last few years. Even if topics are dispersed across different venues, there is only one world, one set of states, and (at any given time) one set of political protagonists who do prioritize topics and take part in negotiations, thus forming and following an albeit amorphous international agenda. This article mostly follows Kingdons agenda-setting approach, adapting and enhancing it appropriately. In Kingdons model, the agenda-setting process can be divided into three streams that oat largely separately from each other: problem recognition, formation of policy proposals and politics (Kingdon, 2003). Nevertheless, only the coupling of all of them, the compelling linkage of a problem (to which awareness is usually being raised through indicators, focusing events or powerful symbols) and a viable policy alternative under politically favorable conditions, can push a topic up the agenda. The opportunity for this arises when a policy window opens, either as a problem window, for example, through a focusing event such as an accident, or as a political window, for example, through a new administration. Windows of opportunity typically close quickly, and their exploitation is the responsibility of policy entrepreneurs (ibid.). Recognizing that an international agenda does exist, its setting can be analyzed along the same three streams as the domestic process: there are conditions in the world that can be dened as problems on a global scale (climate change being one of them); expert communities dedicate their time to developing policy solutions; and the international political sphere can facilitate or hinder that a topic reaches high agenda status with different actors having different inuence. Within these streams, strategic framing is one of the core tools actors can use to pursue their goals, for example, through the purposeful interpretation of problems and possible solutions intended to mobilize adherents, to garner bystander support, and to demobilize antagonists (Snow and Benford, 1988, p. 198). Elements of stra- tegic framing are the linking of ideologically congruent frames (frame bridging), the tapping into existing cultural values (frame amplication), the inclusion of issues that are important to the audience (frame extension) (Benford and Snow, 2000), the manipulation of reference points (evaluative framing) and emphasizing various aspects of a frame (sequential framing) (Mintz and Redd, 2003). Core tasks are diagnostic, prognostic and temporal framing. Diagnostic framing is about the identication of victims and causality and hence about the (value-based) framing of something as problematic, which ts with the problem stream of agenda setting. Prognostic framing involves a proposed solution to the problem and can be linked to agenda settings policy stream (Benford and Snow, 2000). Rothman (2007) adds temporal framing as a third aspect, referring to the value of an event in terms Small states and international politicals 275 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 of time, that is, whether (negative) effects occur now or in the distant future. Frames that incorporate these aspects are more likely to become dominant. Two further characteristics are important for their resonance: (1) credibility, referring to questions such as: How does the framing resonate with empirical evidence? How trustworthy are the articulators? and (2) salience: How important is the topic for the audience? How tangible/abstract is it? (Benford and Snow, 2000). Framing is especially important for small states, since the (constructivist) power of the word is the only power they have; they are not able to inuence others through harder means such as economic or even military pressure. Framing therefore has a central role in the three separate agenda-setting streams and in connecting them when a policy window opens. In the international arena, the most important entrepreneurs of framing directly attributable to states are political leaders, diplomats and (conference) negotiators. Framing mainly refers to the operational how and who of agenda setting. It is embedded into a structure that also reveals a broader how and who. As Figure 1 illustrates, small states can try to directly shape the international agenda (as largely formed by more powerful actors); additionally, several indirect paths are also available to them: They can approach, or cooperate with, advocacy networks, the global media and (larger) like-minded states actors that try on their part (alone or jointly) to shape the agenda either directly or by leveraging the broader Figure 1: Ways for small states to inuence the international agenda (authors own illustration rectangles: state actors or their creations; ovals: non-state actors; rhomb: population; full lines: direct action/inuence of small states; dashed lines: indirect inuence). Jaschik 276 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 population. The core of advocacy networks form members of the (international) civil society, such as non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Their tactics to pressurize stronger actors, for example, governments, comprise constructing strategic frames to produce substantive change. This happens in a timely and dramatic, albeit reliable, manner, often through simple right/wrong framing or the creation of powerful symbolic events, carried via the media. When direct lobbying against norm-violating institutions is ineffective, activists also try to leverage more powerful actors, such as like-minded states. These stronger partners can then exercise pressure on the target (boomerang pattern). The tactics of advocacy networks particularly resonate if a clear causal story points to deliberate, harmful actions of individuals rather than to structural problems (Keck and Sikkink, 1998). As another path to shape the agenda, small states can form alliances among each other to jointly lift their international weight. Especially when such a coalition is based on common interests and values their (framing) strategies can resemble that of advocacy networks with the difference that state alliances have direct access to the tables of decision-making (Larson, 2002; Betzold, 2010). All these steps of exercising inuence (at which framing along the three agenda- setting streams plays a key role) are based in human action rather than structure, hence following the foreign policy analysis approach, which, as an actor-specic theory, emphasizes the importance of the individual in foreign politics. The approach suggests that the world is not deterministic, as structural or traditional system-level explanations sometimes imply. Instead, it is up to human beings to interpret situations and to make decisions (Hudson, 2005). Based on this framework, one can formulate propositions about small states in the agenda-setting process. The main proposition is: Proposition 1: Small states can and do have inuence on the international agenda. Furthermore, the following sub-propositions can be drawn: Proposition 2: Lacking traditional means of power, small states mainly use strategic framing to generate inuence. Proposition 3: Small states make use of other actors and institutions, particularly alliances, advocacy networks and the media, to enhance their inuence. The conrmation of these propositions would strengthen the validity of the model. The independent variable to test the propositions is the behavior of small states in the international arena; the dependent variable is their inuence on the agenda, assessed not necessarily as tangible policy outcomes (which would be one step further than agenda setting) but mainly as what topics are being discussed and how this happens, both in the international sphere at large as well as in concrete negotiations (for example, within the UNFCCC). Small states and international politicals 277 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 Agenda Setting and Framing: The Examples of the Maldives and Tuvalu 1 This empirical part of the paper analyzes the agenda-setting and framing strategies of the Maldives and Tuvalu in the international arena concerning climate change. It uses the framework developed above as a template to draw conclusions on the initial propositions. Occasions and forums are speeches before the UN and elsewhere, UNFCCC conferences, the global media, and so on. The analysis roughly covers the time from 2000 till mid-2011, with a focus on the last of those years. Following Kingdons theory, the analysis is split into the problem, policy and political streams. It should be noted, however, that, while the streams provide a way of systematic analysis, in practice they often overlap or feature the same actors. 2 Problem recognition Being the lowest-lying countries in the world, climate change poses an existential threat to Tuvalu and the Maldives. Accordingly, their representatives frame the problem similarly by dramatically pointing to the consequences of, and responsibility for, the problem, which ts with Benford and Snows notion of diagnostic framing. For both countries, climate change is ultimately a matter of life and death (Nasheed, 2009a; Pita, 2009). By pointing out that it is certain that the climate is changing and sea levels are rising (Nasheed, 2009b), they want to make clear that its not an Atlantis myth (Telito, 2006). Maldivian ex-president Nasheed frequently emphasized that the science is clear, you cannot negotiate with the laws of physics, you cannot cut a deal with Mother Nature (for example, Nasheed, 2009c). This is an example of frame bridging: it builds on the credibility of science and its indicators, with the goal to translate it into the message. In addition, this wording provides (prophylactic) counter-framing against deniers of global warming. Since focusing on potential future inundation often obscures the view on more pressing problems, 3 SIDS applying temporal framing to increase salience stress that climate change can already be felt on a daily basis (Khaleel, 2008): The winds are stronger than it used to be; the rains fall at the wrong time; the dry season is drier than before, so that climatic aberration is more acute than sea level rise (Nasheed, 2009d). Aiming for diagnostic framing, the main cause identied for climate change is that we are living in a manner that the planet cannot sustain (Nasheed, 2009e). As own emissions of SIDS are insignicant, however, there is an inverse relationship between responsi- bility and vulnerability (Khaleel, 2008). Higher-than-normal GHG levels in the atmosphere are a legacy of development in industrialized countries. It is Tuvalu and others having nothing to do with the causes who are now forced to pay (Sopoaga, 2001). Although not responsible, SIDS are the frontline states in this battle, as the world has moved from the Cold War to a Warming War (Pita, 2007). If it was Jaschik 278 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 important for Western countries to defend Poland in the 1930s, it is important to defend the Maldives now (Nasheed, 2009f). This moral, sometimes war-like, language adds to the dramatic effect and can be seen as an attempt of frame amplication: particularly historic analogies tap into existing cultural values and experiences. The image of being at the front is mostly coupled with an extension of the frame to enhance its salience. By stressing that climate change will ultimately have a catastrophic effect on all countries, not only the most vulnerable (Pita, 2010) the problem becomes more tangible for developed countries the audience of the message. As Nasheed put it, if you cannot defend the Maldives today, you cannot defend yourselves tomorrow; we cannot save London, we cannot save Manhattan. So we are all Maldivians (Nasheed, 2010a). Furthermore, drawing on various problem aspects (sequential framing), both countries emphasize that climate change is not only an environmental, but also a political, legal, health and human rights issue, as well as a grave security issue (Khaleel, 2008). Threatening to erode decades of hard-won success (Waheed, 2010), it is thus one of the greatest challenges to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (Pita, 2010). Climate change being the singular most important security issue arising internationally (Nasheed, 2009d), the unprecedented threat to our nationhood would be an infringement on our fundamental rights (Pita, 2007). This amplication of the frame, resting on cultural values such as human rights, is also reected in a shift from a purely climate issue to an equity, security, and prosperity issue in the negotiation dynamics since Kyoto. 4 The Maldives and Tuvalu thus use several strategic framing types to address the problem and to bring the issue closer to the target groups. Ex-president Nasheed, the rst democratic leader of the Maldives, was particularly vocal and enjoyed high credibility internationally. Speeches of politicians and diplomats, however, might not be sufcient to make the problem tangible. Focusing events and symbols can generate higher salience. Although potential focusing events exist, for example, the ooding of the Tuvaluan capital Funafuti in 2002, there is a gap between the macro-analysis (the attribution of harmful incidents to global warming in general) and the micro-analysis: there are always other possible explanations in the individual case. 5 Other international topics, for example, terrorism, have the advantage of clear focusing events emotionally close to the framing targets, so that political consequences can be directly drawn. Therefore, as a substitute, the Maldives and Tuvalu attempt to create powerful symbols, for which cooperation with NGOs/advocacy networks and the media can be particularly helpful. Perhaps the most prominent symbolic event happened in October 2009: the Maldivian government held an underwater meeting in scuba gear with the intention of impress[ing] upon the world that there is a serious issue over here (Nasheed, 2009g). As two interviewees stated, from a PR point of view the underwater cabinet was really well covered, it was on the front page of every newspaper worldwide. 6 The event was embedded into the Global Day of Action, organized Small states and international politicals 279 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 by climate change NGO 350.org, with which the Maldives frequently cooperates. In Nasheeds view, three-ve-oh is the most important number in the world; it refers to 350 parts per million (ppm) CO 2 in the atmosphere, a concentration not to be exceeded to avoid severe environmental ramications. Another symbol of the Warming War especially its David versus Goliath character was the attempt of Tuvalu to sue the United States (and Australia) before the ICJ for their responsibility for climate change and for not having ratied Kyoto, as mentioned at the beginning of the article. Although the claims legal chances were always slim and it has never been realized, the menace alone created considerable media resonance. It also prompted lawyers to consider the conditions under which such a case could possibly be successful and hence to reect on the rather vague international law (Jacobs, 2005). Furthermore, Tuvalu itself has become a symbol of the ght against climate change. Owing to its conditions consisting of tiny islands in the middle of the Pacic and being virtually the smallest country on earth and partly also due to the often uncompromising attitude of their UNFCCC chief delegate, Australian native Ian Fry, they draw a lot of attention. This was particularly true during the 15th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP-15, Copenhagen 2009), where Fry temporarily brought the negotiations to a halt by intransigently demanding a comprehensive, legally binding agreement. Environmental activists joined this determination (Greenpeace, 2009) and, according to Fry, the strong voice of civil society supportive of our concerns was very helpful (Worldwatch Institute, 2010). As put in USA Today, underlining the symbolic role of Tuvalu, nobody's a bigger celebrity than the delegation from tiny Tuvalu. [It] is often held up by the UN and others as a pre-eminent example of a country at risk from global warming (Winter, 2009). In summary, through a combination of strategic framing and the use of strong symbols often carried via advocacy networks and the media the Maldives and Tuvalu increase the resonance to their problem, targeting actors within the policy process as well as the larger population. Following one interviewee who regularly takes part in UNFCCC negotiations, the problem framing of AOSIS generally is very comprehensible and credible; overall everyone agrees with their claims. 7 Another interviewee asserts, they have done really good things making people conscious that their existence is at stake. 8 However, for a prominent position on the international agenda, convincing problem recognition has to be coupled with the policy and political streams. Policy proposals The policy stream deals with policy alternatives developed in the background, for example, by legal or technical experts. However, in the international arena, policy Jaschik 280 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 entrepreneurs are typically government members or diplomats who advocate possible solutions. As the promotion of proposals takes place in the political realm and can directly lead into a negotiation process, for example, at the UNFCCC, policy and political streams often overlap. Apart from framing their problem similarly, as shown in the previous chapter, the Maldives and Tuvalu (and AOSIS states in general) also agree on the overall goal: the world has to sharply reduce GHG emissions to mitigate the effects of climate change. Temperatures should not increase by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels (Ielemia, 2009) and carbon pollution in the atmosphere must return to 350 ppm 9 (Nasheed, 2009h). A second focus is on adaptation, so-called climate- proong, as they have to prepare their islands for a tougher future. They use similar temporal framing by stressing that, if we fail to act now, the climate crisis will become a catastrophe (ibid.) and will be felt everywhere (Toafa, 2004). However, the paths to achieving these goals and the way to frame possible solutions, that is, Tuvalus and the Maldives prognostic framing, differ signicantly. The Maldives stresses the importance of mitigation and adaptation, the responsi- bility of industrialized countries, and the need for higher funds to ght global warming (Nasheed, 2009i). However, in a clear and conscious case of evaluative framing, they try to alter the reference point of climate change by transform[ing] the narrative away from one of burden sharing and sacrice towards one of opportunity and incentives. 5 The aim is to increase the salience of the message and to inuence the target as well as NGOs and the media towards a more positive narrative. As former president Nasheed continuously pointed out, it is not carbon we want but development. It is not coal we want but electricity. It is not oil we want but transport (for example, 2010b). Kyoto, however, is primarily about what countries cannot do, rather than what they can do. A positive agenda focusing on what we can do provides a better alternative (Nasheed, 2009j). Consequently although its own emissions are insignicant in 2009 the Maldives announced to become carbon-neutral by 2020. What started off as a political message quickly turned into a business-oriented narrative. 5 Leading by example, the Maldives wants to prove that carbon-neutral development is not just possible, it is in the economic self-interest (Nasheed, 2010c). This can make a far bigger impact than blaming others for causing the problem (Nasheed, 2009k). Bringing the topic closer to the target through frame extension, Nasheed (2009h) stressed that countries that have the foresight to green their economies today will be the winners of the 21st century. [They] will free themselves from foreign oil and capitalize on the green economy of the future. However, while emphasizing the prot-making opportunities to attract investments from renewable energy companies, the Maldives also underlines that the transformation cannot be done without nancial support from rich countries. I say to the industrialized world: you have the nances and much of the technology. Please help us go green (Nasheed, 2009a). For Tuvalu, calling on the world collectively is the only way to save us. 10 They particularly emphasize the political and moral responsibility of the industrialized Small states and international politicals 281 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 world to act. Regarding mitigation, we need serious commitments from key GHG- producing countries but also key developing countries to dramatically reduce their emissions (Ielemia, 2009). To achieve this, Tuvalu proposes a global fund for the development of renewable energy, nanced following the polluter pays principle, that is, mostly by industrialized countries (Sopoaga, 2006). Tuvalus main focus, though, lies on adaptation, as demonstrated by the International Blueprint on Adaptation (UNFCCC, 2007), submitted at COP-13, which took place in Bali/Indonesia in 2007. Here Tuvalu suggested (a) the creation of a burden- sharing mechanism, nanced through a levy on international aviation and maritime transport, since it is seen as clear that nancial resources for adaptation are completely inadequate, and (b) the establishment of an international climate insurance pool to support the most vulnerable communities after climate-related disasters (Teii, 2008). The proposal 11 particularly its burden-sharing mechanism made it into the scientic (but barely into the political) 7 discussion about reorganiz- ing adaptation funding (Mller, 2008). Shortly after the Maldives, Tuvalu also announced to become carbon-neutral by 2020 to show that if we can do it, you industrialized and big developing countries have the nancial might to do it as well. 10 However, Tuvaluan representatives, unlike their Maldivian colleagues, keep this message surprisingly low-key in their communication. Apart from mitigation and adaptation, relocation is a third, albeit drastic, possibility to survive climate change. After his election in 2008, President Nasheed considered looking for dry land in the doomsday scenario, that is, buying foreign land for his people, nanced through the countrys tourism revenues (Nasheed, 2009l). Making headlines worldwide, the aim was to bring out the issue for debate. However, since relocation does not t with the positive narrative the Maldives is now pursuing, it was not a good road to follow in terms of communication 5 and erased from the script. As another interviewee conrmed, a focus on relocation would be inept; it would be interpreted as a confession of failure. Therefore, the topic plays no role in the UNFCCC negotiations. 7 Tuvaluan leaders also stress that forcing us to leave cannot be used as a quick-x solution (Ielemia, 2008), but in the background the country has been working on potential relocation plans, for example, to New Zealand or Australia. The aim is to nd a place where they can keep their self-determination and ideally also their status as sovereign nation. According to one interviewee, relocation is currently not high on the agenda but you need to have a long-term plan B. 10 Although Australia rejected such claims, New Zealand takes 75 Tuvaluans per year (New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2009). In summary, Tuvalu and the Maldives while agreeing on the importance of both mitigation and adaptation pursue different solutions. Whereas Tuvalu stresses the [polluters] moral responsibility to the entire globe to act, 10 the Maldives tells a more positive narrative about the opportunities of going green. The dissimilarity might stem from different capacities that the countries dispose of; the (albeit small) Jaschik 282 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 Maldives can develop a more sophisticated solution than extremely small Tuvalu. 7 Both framings are credible, though: the Maldivian approach seems to stick better with other governments, in whose view a more constructive dialogue is useful. 8 However, sharing the same opponent, Tuvalus more black/white, but indeed consistent and intuitively understandable approach is able to get resonance particu- larly from advocacy groups, as already shown in the section on the problem stream. In the following political stream the framing of problems and solutions has to be bundled and enriched with political skills to gain agenda inuence. Politics Within agenda setting, the political stream has a life of its own but is also crucial for the opening of windows of opportunity, where problems, policies and politics conjoin. Therefore, policy entrepreneurs try to inuence the factors of this stream, for example, decision-makers and the public mood, in order to open a window and push agenda items. A difference has to be drawn between the political level, where leaders decide on the overall direction, and the working level, where con- crete measures are being negotiated. The main institutions regarding climate change are the UNFCCC conferences, but venues such as the (informal) Cartagena Dialogue also provide space for action. The Maldives and Tuvalu can act independently to open windows of opportunity and gain impact on the agenda, but also through alliances, especially AOSIS, and with the support of advocacy networks. Certain (structural) circumstances, however, they cannot inuence at all, such as government changes in powerful countries or the Sino-US interaction. Tuvalu often plays a controversial role internationally, using clear, moral-based framing. Following a Tuvaluan diplomat: We take it to the highest political level. Our position is not something to appease countries like the USA. We take it because of what we are concerned about, our people. Its not that we are making it up. Tuvalus main reason for joining the UN in 2000 was to get a voice in the international arena. 10 However, they observe with disappointment the absence of global leadership (Ielemia, 2008), a feeling that became obvious in Copenhagen 2009. Tuvalu was one of the few countries not to sign the (rather vague) Copenhagen Accord: We had to stop that. We cant sign on to this. What are we going to tell our people? It would be a sin. 10 During the COPs, as mentioned previously, Tuvalus delegate Ian Fry represents their positions intransigently. Western governments perceive the appearance of Tuvalu often [as] too extreme and not conducive to goal attainment. 7 From an NGO perspective, though (while also doubting Tuvalus political traction) it is seen as an advantage to have a vocal person like Fry. Other Pacic nations would like to say similar things but are not able to. Tuvalus pertinacity, together with the clear position of other AOSIS members, might have had Small states and international politicals 283 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 indirect agenda impact, since log-rolling by larger states would otherwise have been even more likely. 3 According to all interviewees, the Maldives is seen as very salient and credible on the political level. This was mainly due to the constructive, sometimes also bold, attitude of former president Nasheed, a policy entrepreneur demonstrating moral and political leadership. 12 Nasheed cooperated with everyone who favors a low-carbon future, aiming at bonding with like-minded states and opening windows of opportunity for his ideas. He applied different strategies to frame his countrys problems and policies, as described above, and did not always stick to traditional diplomatic conventions: He made clear he is prepared to take big risk with Maldives international relations, 5 for example, when being very critical about the position of the G77, 13 particularly telling China that they are not only a developing country but also a main emitter. 14 However, Nasheed also tried to win over larger countries by saying that there is no limit to American ingenuity in inventing green technologies, or if China shows leadership, others will follow (Nasheed, 2009a). It can be regarded as a success of AOSIS states and the Maldives in particular that the G77, especially China and India, have become more constructive since Copenhagen, 15 even if possibly only for tactical reasons, as they did not want to be regarded as the block anymore. To achieve this it was important to have a voice inside the G77. 8 Despite the Maldives strength on the political level, though, there is a gap in terms of what we do constructively within the negotiation process because we dont have really good negotiators. 16 For true agenda inuence, you have to be good in politics as well as in negotiations on working level. 8 The Maldives, Tuvalu and other SIDS have severe capacity problems particularly regarding the latter. Following one interviewee, you need people who got training in international law and who sit in meetings and understand every single detail. 5 This is crucial when a window of opportunity opens for example, through political action so that fast, knowledgeable reaction is required. Consequently, SIDS formed AOSIS to collectively gain representation at the UNFCCC. The fact that AOSIS exists is the only way these states have a real voice because none of them individually could pursue these things. AOSIS has just the capacity to follow basically every line of the discussion. 5 Another interviewee states that despite limited capacity, AOSIS is very visible and professional and is taken seriously. By focusing on a few topics, they follow a clear agenda, such as the claim for ambitious mitigation targets especially limiting global warming to 1.5C and the recognition of the importance of adaptation and related funding. 17 In both areas AOSIS can record some success, since the Copenhagen Accord (UNFCCC, 2009) and the Cancn Agreements (UNFCCC, 2010) emphasize stronger adaptation measures and announce, albeit vaguely, to consider the 1.5C goal in 2015. As one interviewee stresses: The opinions of frontline states such as Tuvalu and the Maldives enjoy high respect within AOSIS, so AOSIS overall goals match those of Tuvalu and the Maldives. 10 In the discussion about a Kyoto Jaschik 284 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 succession protocol AOSIS is also recognized as an important player of high reputation. 7 Furthermore, having a louder voice together, island states can claim some success in the political sphere, for example, the UN General Assemblys adoption of the resolution on Climate change and its possible security implications (UN, 2009), introduced by the Pacic SIDS within AOSIS. Another relevant forum is the so-called Cartagena Dialogue, which grew out of disappointment with Copenhagen. It is an informal process, bringing together around 30 like-minded countries from all continents dedicated to low-carbon policies. 18 It is the rst forum for industrialized and developing countries in the area of climate change that crosses traditional negotiating groups. Linking actors with similar ideas, it is characterized by cooperation and progressive discussions. Participants feed into the UNFCCC process but also reect on broader topics, for example, the future of the UN climate system in general. Owing to its goal to become carbon-neutral, the Maldives which can claim some credit for co-founding the process plays an important role in the group. 19 Advocacy networks and NGOs support SIDS by providing legal and technical expertise and through campaigns (for example, during COPs) and events (for example, 350.orgs yearly Global Day of Action the planets most widespread day of political action (CNN, 2009)). They focus especially on mitigation and worry that polluting countries, instead of implementing serious mitigation measures, distract SIDS with the promise of adaptation funding. 3 Owing to its conditions, climate change is a tricky eld for advocacy networks. They can apply some tactics such as information and symbolic politics; however, it is difcult to leverage like- minded states for pressuring norm-violators, as the culprits are the most powerful actors themselves. In addition, climate change is a structural problem rather than one that can be tied to deliberate, harmful actions of individuals. This distinguishes it, for example, from human rights, where often smaller states (and concrete individuals in there) are the violators that can be pressured materially or morally by powerful actors. The boomerang pattern is therefore less effective in the eld of global warming. Hence, networks mainly focus on capacity and network building of the island communities themselves, for example, through workshops for youths, 3 and on indirectly targeting (western) governments by inuencing the public mood, for example, through symbolic events. As seen in the problem stream, this ts with the efforts of SIDS to raise the issues salience and can lead to mutually benecial relationships, such as the one between the Maldives and 350.org. President Nasheed regularly took part in discussions about the NGOs strategy and campaigns. Acting as a so-called messenger of the organization, he also prominently participated in their Global Days of Action, creating symbols such as the underwater cabinet. 20 Tuvalu does not have the capacity for permanent cooperation with NGOs and approaches them informally on an ad hoc basis, for example, the WWF, the Global Forest Coalition, or scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research. 21 Never- theless, as mentioned before, Tuvalu gets strong support from activists particularly Small states and international politicals 285 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 during COPs. Furthermore, legal experts from the Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development assist both AOSIS and single member states (Betzold, 2010). Activities of states and NGOs are often transported via the media to the broader public, as seen in the problem stream. This is crucial to raise the issues resonance and to bring it closer to the targets in the industrialized countries. While the Maldives follows a media strategy managed by an International Press Secretary, including regular op-eds and press releases to push key themes, 5 Tuvalu again due to capacity reasons lacks a strategy and works with the media on an ad hoc basis. 21 In summary, the Maldives, particularly its ex-president, is/was seen as a credible and constructive actor in the political arena, aiming at creating (and using) windows of opportunity. Tuvalus role is more controversial. AOSIS provides SIDS with a stronger voice internationally and with capacity on the working level to seriously take part in negotiations, which otherwise they could hardly do. Furthermore, advocacy networks and the media support them, especially in inuencing the public mood. The following section summarizes the impact of Tuvalu and the Maldives in the agenda-setting process, relating it to the initial propositions. Agenda-setting inuence and assessment of initial propositions As shown throughout the paper and stated by all interviewees, the Maldives and Tuvalu do have (direct and indirect) inuence on the climate change negotiations and on the broader international agenda. The expectation is not that these small states can, against all structural odds, single-handedly push through an effective agreement to stop global warming. Their inuence can be seen rather in how the problem is discussed and what solutions are considered. Concretely, the Maldives and Tuvalu (and other SIDS) managed to further highlight the topic of climate change and the threat to their existence on the public agenda, also by drawing attention from NGOs and the media. Across the globe, people are aware of their plight. Thus, the UNFCCC conferences shifted from purely environmental discussions to also including security and prosperity issues. The Maldives steers the climate narrative towards opportunities rather than sacrices, which falls on fertile ground, for example, within the Cartagena Dialogue. Supported by AOSIS, they shifted the G77 out of a hard-line towards a more constructive position, and achieved the recognition of adaptation as equally important as mitigation and the mentioning of the 1.5C limit in the ofcial documents. Furthermore, AOSIS is regarded as a serious partner in discussions about a Kyoto succession protocol and the future of the UN climate system in general. The recognition of climate change as a security issue in the UN General Assembly can also be attributed to AOSIS. 22 Lastly, potentially inuencing proceedings by generating a non-result, SIDS steadfast positions within the UNFCCC might have impeded lukewarm agreements between larger nations. Jaschik 286 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 These examples conrm the main proposition of this article that small states can and do have inuence on the international agenda. Conrming the second proposition, strategic framing turned out to be a crucial tool for gaining inuence. Through frame amplication, frame extension and temporal framing, particularly in the problem stream, the Maldives and Tuvalu push the problem of climate change closer to the targets, thereby increasing the credibility and salience of their message. This is important in a world where climate change has to compete with other global topics that often feel closer or more immediate to (western) decision-makers and societies. The outspokenness of Tuvalu is motivating to NGOs, and the Maldives attempt to turn the climate change narrative to one of opportunities also shows the relevance of framing in the policy stream. A coalition such as AOSIS strengthens small states voice in the political arena: it makes a difference for other governments and the broader population whether an issue is raised by a single state or by 40 of them. In this context, it is an advantage of AOSIS a group of democracies with an intuitively understandable claim that it is generally seen as friendly. Furthermore, an effective coalition enables small states to seriously take part in detailed multilateral negotiations, giving them direct access to the decision-making process, important once a window of opportunity opens. Alone, they would not have the capacity for this. AOSIS importance can be seen in the agenda items just mentioned. Advocacy networks and the media amplify the voice of small states, especially in framing the problem they are facing. In a constructivist process, by telling consistent, trustworthy stories and creating powerful symbols and events, networks can increase the resonance of an issue and hence inuence the broader publics beliefs. Cooperating with NGOs is a promising way for small states to increase their radius, as the relationship of the Maldives and 350.org shows. The roles of AOSIS, advocacy networks and the media conrm the third proposition. The analysis clearly identied Maldivian ex-president Nasheed as an active and respected policy entrepreneur. Tuvalus chief climate negotiator Ian Fry plays a controversial role, but overall Tuvalu although generally very vocal does not have a gure as outstanding as Nasheed used to be. The importance of individuals supports the foreign policy analysis approach, despite existing structural limitations. However, it also shows a certain dependency of small states on very few actors, a potentially dangerous situation, as the coming years now that Nasheed left ofce might demonstrate. The conrmation of all three propositions strengthens the validity of the model developed at the beginning. With the ndings of the analysis, though, it can be rened: actors can be attributed more precisely to the different agenda-setting streams. It turns out that an alliance is particularly important in the political stream, where it strengthens the voice of small states and provides capacity for detailed negotiations. Owing to their inuence on the public mood, advocacy networks and the media are also important in the political stream as well as in the problem Small states and international politicals 287 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 stream, where they play a key role in supporting SIDS in framing the existential problem they are facing. Framing as a tool is important across the whole process. Conclusion Employing the case examples of the Maldives and Tuvalu in their ght against the impact of climate change, this article showed how small states use the international arena to gain inuence on the international political agenda and what the results of these efforts are. Based on a model derived from agenda-setting theory in combina- tion with strategic framing theory, foreign policy analysis and literature on advocacy networks, the article analyzed the efforts of the two countries along Kingdons three agenda-setting streams: problem recognition, policy proposals and politics. The ndings largely conrm the initial propositions that small states can and do have inuence on the agenda, especially through framing of problems and policies and the support of alliances, advocacy networks and the media, so that they can open, and make use of, windows of opportunity. They also conrm the claim of Maldivian ex-president Nasheed (2010a) that we can reach above our height and punch much harder than we can ever imagine. Through a constructivist approach, it could be shown, therefore, that the Realist notion of hard power as the only determinant of inuence is not correct. The ndings can also be interpreted as an indicator of global democracy, as also seemingly powerless actors can have some say in international affairs. The analysis revealed many similarities between the Maldives and Tuvalu, especially regarding problem framing and the overall goal they pursue. It became clear that both, due to their small size, have capacity limits, which they can partly overcome through the membership in an alliance. However, there are a number of differences between them that underline the articles character of also being a comparative case study. The focus of their suggested policy solutions differs, with the Maldives telling a positive narrative about the opportunities that arise when greening the economy and Tuvalu stressing the responsibilities of the industrialized world to act. The Maldives is generally seen as a constructive participant in the process and Tuvalu as more controversial. Furthermore, they vary in how intensely they cooperate with NGOs and the media. These differences can be partly explained by the attitudes of concretely acting individuals, in line with foreign policy analysis. However, they also point to the fact that extremely small Tuvalu has even considerably less capacity to systematically work with climate activists or to participate in an expedient process such as the Cartagena Dialogue. Therefore, Tuvalu depends even more on the structures in which it is embedded, such as AOSIS. Moreover, the extreme vulnerability and smallness of Tuvalu possibly enables them to speak freely. There are hardly any economic or diplomatic ties they have to be particularly careful of; there is no reason for overly cautious language. Jaschik 288 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 This is slightly different for the Maldives, a country that is more integrated into the global economy, one that advanced from the group of LDC, and where climate change is of high, but not of absolute paramount priority. The ndings of this study suggest some possibilities for further research: the importance of, and partly dependency on, very few individuals as policy entrepre- neurs for small states could deserve closer attention. The Maldives with and without Nasheed as its president might constitute a case here. The sometimes extreme conduct of Tuvalu also raises a question: Do microstates act like full-grown states, sticking to diplomatic conventions, or do they have the courage born from despair to speak freely, almost like NGOs? Furthermore, as this study aimed at analytic generalization, the integrated model developed for international agenda setting can be applied to other cases. A possible example for theory testing could be the world trade system a system largely tailored to the needs of powerful states. With small countries having difculties to advocate their preferences (for example, within the WTO), it shows some similarities with climate change. The results of such a project could then support, rene or abandon the model developed in this article. About the Author Kevin Jaschik works as an advisor at public affairs consultancy nuances public affairs in Berlin. His area of expertise is within the energy and energy efciency sectors, supporting the German energy transition (Energiewende). From 2005 until 2009, he worked for the consultancy rm McKinsey & Company in Amsterdam with a focus on the transportation sector. Kevin Jaschik holds the title of Diplom-Kaufmann (MBA equivalent) from the University of Gttingen/Germany (2004) and a Master of Science in International Public Policy from University College London (2011). Notes 1 The rationale for the choice of the two cases partly followed the logic of replication: both countries are small, relatively poor, coral atoll nations. Both are democracies (although the circumstances of the resignation of former Maldivian president Nasheed in 2012 bore some markings of a coup) and belong to the group of SIDS and AOSIS within the UN. With the highest natural points being only 2 to 4 meters, they are the worlds lowest lying countries and particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. Their conditions and the nature of the problem of climate change make them least-likely cases for inuencing the global agenda. However, there are also important differences: With only 10 500 inhabitants and a total landmass of 26 km 2 across nine atolls, Pacic Tuvalu is even considerably smaller than the Maldives in the Indian Ocean (population: 400 000; territory: 298 km 2 ; 26 atolls or 1196 islands). Moreover, Tuvalu has the status of a least developed country (LDC), whereas the Maldives, after a period of steady growth, moved from LDC to middle-income status in 2010. Tuvalu, therefore, represents an even less likely case, giving the article also the character of a comparative case study. Small states and international politicals 289 2014 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1384-5748 International Politics Vol. 51, 2, 272293 2 To gain data about the agenda-setting and framing strategies I conducted semi-structured expert interviews with representatives from the states concerned as the givers of the message, representatives from industrialized countries as the receivers, and activists from climate change NGOs as possibly intervening third parties. The interviews were complemented by content analyses of UN General Assembly speeches of representatives of the two countries, as well as speeches of former Maldivian president Nasheed, who used to be very vocal on the topic of climate change. A search of government and NGO websites complemented the analysis. 3 Interview with an activist in the Pacic region of climate change NGO 350.org, on 27 July 2011. 4 Interview with two representatives of the UK Foreign & Commonwealth Ofce (FCO) on 6 July 2011. 5 Interview with a climate change advisor of Maldivian ex-president Nasheed, on 22 June 2011. 6 Interview with two representatives of the FCO on 6 July 2011; similar in the interview with a representative of the German Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU) on 12 August 2011. 7 Interview with a representative of the BMU on 12 August 2011. 8 Interview with two representatives of the FCO on 6 July 2011. 9 The current concentration is already at 394 ppm. 10 Interview with a high-ranking diplomat of Tuvalu, on 27 June 2011. 11 The proposal was independently compiled by Ian Fry and UN Ambassador Sopoaga; Email exchange with a climate change negotiator of Tuvalu, on 15 August 2011. 12 Interview with a climate change advisor of Maldivian ex-president Nasheed, on 22 June 2011; similar in the interviews with two representatives of the FCO on 6 July 2011, a representative of the BMU on 12 August 2011and an activist in the Pacic region of climate change NGO 350.org, on 27 July 2011. 13 The G77 at the UN is a coalition of 131 developing countries, including China and India (and the Maldives, but not Tuvalu). It emphasizes industrialized countries responsibilities, requiring all climate negotiations to remain within the UNFCCC/Kyoto process. 14 Interview with two representatives of the FCO on 6 July 2011; similar in the interview with a climate change advisor of Maldivian ex-president Nasheed, on 22 June 2011. 15 Interview with a climate change advisor of Maldivian ex-president Nasheed, on 22 June 2011; similar in the interview with two representatives of the FCO on 6 July 2011. 16 Interview with a climate change advisor of Maldivian ex-president Nasheed, on 22 June 2011; conrmed in the interview with a representative of the BMU on 12 August 2011. 17 Interview with a representative of the BMU on 12 August 2011; similar in the interview with two representatives of the FCO on 6 July 2011. 18 In contrast to the Maldives, Tuvalu does not take part, mainly due to lack of capacity. 19 The importance of Cartagena was emphasized in the interviews with a climate change advisor of Maldivian ex-president Nasheed, with a representative of the BMU and with two representatives of the FCO. 20 Interview with a climate change advisor of Maldivian ex-president Nasheed, on 22 June 2011; similar in the interview with an activist in the Pacic region of climate change NGO 350.org, on 27 July 2011. 21 Email exchange with a climate change negotiator of Tuvalu, on 15 August 2011. 22 In July 2011, the UN Security Council also recognized climate change as a potential security issue; following the interviewee from the BMU, however, this is more due to efforts of larger states, for example, the United Kingdom. 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